Forest defoliators and climatic change: potential changes in spatial distribution of outbreaks of western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and gypsy moth (Lepidoptera Lymantriidae)

Treesearch

David W. ​Williams; Andrew M. Liebhold

1995-01-01

Changes in geographical ranges and spatial extent of outbreaks of pest species are likely consequences of climatic change. We investigated potential changes in spatial distribution of outbreaks of western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, and gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), in Oregon and Pennsylvania,...

The ecological niche and reciprocal prediction of the disjunct distribution of an invasive species: the example of Ailanthus altissima

Treesearch

Thomas P. Albright; Hao Chen; Lijun Chen; Qinfeng Guo

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the ecological niches of invasive species in native and introduced ranges can inform management as well as ecological and evolutionary theory. Here, we identified and compared factors associated with the distribution of an invasive tree, Ailanthus altissima, in both its native Chinese and introduced US ranges and predicted potential US...

A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

PubMed

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.

A GIS Model Predicting Potential Distributions of a Lineage: A Test Case on Hermit Spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

PubMed Central

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Background Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Conclusions Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change. PMID:22238692

Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Peña-Gómez, Francisco T; Guerrero, Pablo C; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O

2014-01-01

Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche conservatism but there is potential for further expansion in Chile.

ESUSA: US endangered species distribution file

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagy, J.; Calef, C.E.

1979-10-01

This report describes a file containing distribution data on endangered species of the United States of Federal concern pursuant to the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Included for each species are (a) the common name, (b) the scientific name, (c) the family, (d) the group (mammal, bird, etc.), (e) Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) listing and recovery priorities, (f) the Federal legal status, (g) the geographic distribution by counties or islands, (h) Federal Register citations and (i) the sources of the information on distribution of the species. Status types are endangered, threatened, proposed, formally under review, candidate, deleted, and rejected.more » Distribution is by Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) county code and is of four types: designated critical habitat, present range, potential range, and historic range.« less

Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.

PubMed

Amorim, Francisco; Carvalho, Sílvia B; Honrado, João; Rebelo, Hugo

2014-01-01

Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

Tracking a Medically Important Spider: Climate Change, Ecological Niche Modeling, and the Brown Recluse (Loxosceles reclusa)

PubMed Central

Saupe, Erin E.; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A.; Vetter, Richard S.

2011-01-01

Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain. PMID:27248830

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Using the Maxent program for species distribution modelling to assess invasion risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E.; Venette, R.C

2015-01-01

MAXENT is a software package used to relate known species occurrences to information describing the environment, such as climate, topography, anthropogenic features or soil data, and forecast the presence or absence of a species at unsampled locations. This particular method is one of the most popular species distribution modelling techniques because of its consistent strong predictive performance and its ease to implement. This chapter discusses the decisions and techniques needed to prepare a correlative climate matching model for the native range of an invasive alien species and use this model to predict the potential distribution of this species in a potentially invaded range (i.e. a novel environment) by using MAXENT for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus) as a case study. The chapter discusses and demonstrates the challenges that are associated with this approach and examines the inherent limitations that come with using MAXENT to forecast distributions of invasive alien species.

Slow test charge response in a dusty plasma with Kappa distributed electrons and ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, S.; Eliasson, B.

2017-08-01

The electrostatic potential around a slowly moving test charge is studied in a dusty plasma where the ions and electrons follow a powerlaw Kappa distribution in velocity space. A test charge moving with a speed much smaller than the dust thermal speed gives rise to a short-scale Debye-Hückel potential as well as a long-range far-field potential decreasing as inverse cube of the distance to the test charge along the propagation direction. The potentials are significantly modified in the presence of high-energy tails, modeled by lower spectral indices in the ion and electron Kappa distribution functions. Plasma parameters relevant to laboratory dusty plasmas are discussed.

Reynolds Number Effects on Leading Edge Radius Variations of a Supersonic Transport at Transonic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rivers, S. M. B.; Wahls, R. A.; Owens, L. R.

2001-01-01

A computational study focused on leading-edge radius effects and associated Reynolds number sensitivity for a High Speed Civil Transport configuration at transonic conditions was conducted as part of NASA's High Speed Research Program. The primary purposes were to assess the capabilities of computational fluid dynamics to predict Reynolds number effects for a range of leading-edge radius distributions on a second-generation supersonic transport configuration, and to evaluate the potential performance benefits of each at the transonic cruise condition. Five leading-edge radius distributions are described, and the potential performance benefit including the Reynolds number sensitivity for each is presented. Computational results for two leading-edge radius distributions are compared with experimental results acquired in the National Transonic Facility over a broad Reynolds number range.

Assessing the Risk of Invasion by Tephritid Fruit Flies: Intraspecific Divergence Matters

PubMed Central

Godefroid, Martin; Cruaud, Astrid; Rossi, Jean-Pierre; Rasplus, Jean-Yves

2015-01-01

Widely distributed species often show strong phylogeographic structure, with lineages potentially adapted to different biotic and abiotic conditions. The success of an invasion process may thus depend on the intraspecific identity of the introduced propagules. However, pest risk analyses are usually performed without accounting for intraspecific diversity. In this study, we developed bioclimatic models using MaxEnt and boosted regression trees approaches, to predict the potential distribution in Europe of six economically important Tephritid pests (Ceratitis fasciventris (Bezzi), Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann), Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) and Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillet)). We considered intraspecific diversity in our risk analyses by independently modeling the distributions of conspecific lineages. The six species displayed different potential distributions in Europe. A strong signal of intraspecific climate envelope divergence was observed in most species. In some cases, conspecific lineages differed strongly in potential distributions suggesting that taxonomic resolution should be accounted for in pest risk analyses. No models (lineage- and species-based approaches) predicted high climatic suitability in the entire invaded range of B. oleae—the only species whose intraspecific identity of invading populations has been elucidated—in California. Host availability appears to play the most important role in shaping the geographic range of this specialist pest. However, climatic suitability values predicted by species-based models are correlated with population densities of B. oleae globally reported in California. Our study highlights how classical taxonomic boundaries may lead to under- or overestimation of the potential pest distributions and encourages accounting for intraspecific diversity when assessing the risk of biological invasion. PMID:26274582

An alternative approach to the Boltzmann distribution through the chemical potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Anna, Michele; Job, Georg

2016-05-01

The Boltzmann distribution is one of the most significant results of classical physics. Despite its importance and its wide range of application, at high school level it is mostly presented without any derivation or link to some basic ideas. In this contribution we present an approach based on the chemical potential that allows to derive it directly from the basic idea of thermodynamical equilibrium.

Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

PubMed

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-04-29

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

PubMed Central

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change. PMID:20454451

A Multi-Scale Distribution Model for Non-Equilibrium Populations Suggests Resource Limitation in an Endangered Rodent

PubMed Central

Bean, William T.; Stafford, Robert; Butterfield, H. Scott; Brashares, Justin S.

2014-01-01

Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define “available” habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining “available” habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and temporal scales relevant to theoretical and applied ecologists. PMID:25237807

Thermal sensitivity of cold climate lizards and the importance of distributional ranges.

PubMed

Bonino, Marcelo F; Moreno Azócar, Débora L; Schulte, James A; Abdala, Cristian S; Cruz, Félix B

2015-08-01

One of the fundamental goals in macroecology is to understand the relationship among species' geographic ranges, ecophysiology, and climate; however, the mechanisms underlying the distributional geographic patterns observed remain unknown for most organisms. In the case of ectotherms this is particularly important because the knowledge of these interactions may provide a robust framework for predicting the potential consequences of climate change in these organisms. Here we studied the relationship of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance in Patagonian lizards and their geographic ranges, proposing that species with wider distributions have broader plasticity and thermal tolerance. We predicted that lizard thermal physiology is related to the thermal characteristics of the environment. We also explored the presence of trade-offs of some thermal traits and evaluated the potential effects of a predicted scenario of climate change for these species. We examined sixteen species of Liolaemini lizards from Patagonia representing species with different geographic range sizes. We obtained thermal tolerance data and performance curves for each species in laboratory trials. We found evidence supporting the idea that higher physiological plasticity allows species to achieve broader distribution ranges compared to species with restricted distributions. We also found a trade-off between broad levels of plasticity and higher optimum temperatures of performance. Finally, results from contrasting performance curves against the highest environmental temperatures that lizards may face in a future scenario (year 2080) suggest that the activity of species occurring at high latitudes may be unaffected by predicted climatic changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Effect of short-range correlations on the single proton 3s1/2 wave function in 206Pb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shlomo, S.; Talmi, I.; Anders, M. R.; Bonasera, G.

2018-02-01

We consider the experimental data for difference, Δρc (r), between the charge density distributions of the isotones 206Pb - 205Tl, deduced by analysis of elastic electron scattering measurements and corresponds to the shell model 3s1/2 proton orbit. We investigate the effects of two-body short-range correlations. This is done by: (a) Determining the corresponding single particle potential (mean-field), employing a novel method, directly from the single particle proton density and its first and second derivatives. We also carried out least-square fits to parametrized single particle potentials; (b) Determining the short-range correlations effect by employing the Jastrow correlated many-body wave function to derive a correlation factor for the single particle density distribution. The 3s 1/2 wave functions of the determined potentials reproduce fairly well the experimental data within the quoted errors. The calculated charge density difference, Δρc (r), obtained with the inclusion of the short-range correlation effect does not reproduce the experimental data.

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

PubMed Central

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Rahbek, Carsten; Jiguet, Frédéric

2009-01-01

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is −13 per cent (from −97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa. PMID:19324660

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

Estimated home ranges can misrepresent habitat relationships on patchy landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, M.S.; Powell, R.A.

2008-01-01

Home ranges of animals are generally structured by the selective use of resource-bearing patches that comprise habitat. Based on this concept, home ranges of animals estimated from location data are commonly used to infer habitat relationships. Because home ranges estimated from animal locations are largely continuous in space, the resource-bearing patches selected by an animal from a fragmented distribution of patches would be difficult to discern; unselected patches included in the home range estimate would bias an understanding of important habitat relationships. To evaluate potential for this bias, we generated simulated home ranges based on optimal selection of resource-bearing patches across a series of simulated resource distributions that varied in the spatial continuity of resources. For simulated home ranges where selected patches were spatially disjunct, we included interstitial, unselected cells most likely to be traveled by an animal moving among selected patches. We compared characteristics of the simulated home ranges with and without interstitial patches to evaluate how insights derived from field estimates can differ from actual characteristics of home ranges, depending on patchiness of landscapes. Our results showed that contiguous home range estimates could lead to misleading insights on the quality, size, resource content, and efficiency of home ranges, proportional to the spatial discontinuity of resource-bearing patches. We conclude the potential bias of including unselected, largely irrelevant patches in the field estimates of home ranges of animals can be high, particularly for home range estimators that assume uniform use of space within home range boundaries. Thus, inferences about the habitat relationships that ultimately define an animal's home range can be misleading where animals occupy landscapes with patchily distributed resources.

Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change.

PubMed

Atkins, K E; Travis, J M J

2010-10-07

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tree range expansion may be enhanced by escape from negative plant-soil feedbacks.

PubMed

McCarthy-Neumann, Sarah; Ibáñez, Inés

2012-12-01

Many plant species are expected to shift their distributional ranges in response to global warming. As they arrive at new sites, migrant plant species may be released from their natural soil pathogens and/or deprived of key symbiotic organisms. Under such scenarios plant-soil feedbacks (PSF) will likely have an impact on plant species' ability to establish in new areas. In this study we evaluated the role that PSF may play on the migratory potential of dominant temperate tree species at the northern limit of their distributional range in the Great Lakes region of North America. To test their ability to expand their current range, we assessed seedling establishment, i.e., survival, of local and potential migrant tree species in a field transplant experiment. To test for the presence and strength of PSF, we also assessed seedling survival during establishment in a greenhouse experiment, where the potential migrant species were grown in soils collected within and beyond their distributional ranges. The combination of experiments provided us with a comprehensive understanding of the role of PSF in seedling establishment in new areas. In the field, we found that survival for most migrant species was similar to those of the local community, ensuring that these species could establish in areas beyond their current range. In the greenhouse, we found that the majority of species experienced strong negative conspecific feedbacks mediated by soil biota, but these responses occurred for most species only in low light conditions. Lastly, our combined results indicate that migrant tree species can colonize and may even have enhanced short-term recruitment beyond their ranges due to a lack of conspecific adults (and the resulting negative PSF from these adults).

Delineating generalized species boundaries from species distribution data and a species distribution model

Treesearch

Matthew P. Peters; Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2013-01-01

Species distribution models (SDM) are commonly used to provide information about species ranges or extents, and often are intended to represent the entire area of potential occupancy or suitable habitat in which individuals occur. While SDMs can provide results over various geographic extents, they normally operate within a grid and cannot delimit distinct, smooth...

[Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia under climate change].

PubMed

Yang, Xia; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Mu, Chen; Lin, Jun

2017-02-01

Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Alhagi sparsifolia, which is a plant used in traditional Uighur medicine, and predict how climate change would affect its geographic range. The potential geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under the current conditions in China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 42 locations and 19 climatic variables. The future distributions of A. sparsifolia were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).The result showed that mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the temperature annual range were the seven climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of A. sparsifolia under current climate, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the Xinjiang, in the middle and north of Gansu, in the west of Neimeng, in the north of Nei Monggol. From 2050 to 2070, the model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats of A. sparsifolia would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and scenarios of RCP8.5 on the whole. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

PubMed

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

PubMed Central

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

Evidence of niche shift and global invasion potential of the tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Analysis of an invasive species’ niche shift between native and introduced ranges, along with potential distribution maps, can provide valuable information about its invasive potential. The tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva, is a rapidly emerging and economically important invasive species in the so...

How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian Tree Sparrows Passer montanus in North America?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Jarnevich, Catherine; Young, Nick; Newman, Greg; Stohlgren, Thomas

2011-01-01

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus, native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. Under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important information for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species.

Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

PubMed

Ji, Yingchao; Luo, Wen; Zhang, Ganyu; Wen, Junbao

2017-08-22

Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle and its variant A. altissima var. Qiantouchun are notorious invasive weeds. Two weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (ESC) and E. brandti (EBR) are considered as candidates for biological control of A. altissima. The aim of this study was to model the potential distributions of ESC and EBR using CLIMEX 4.0. The projected potential distributions of ESC and EBR included almost all current distribution areas of A. altissima, except Southeast Asia. Under historical climate, potential distribution area of EBR is larger than that of ESC, 46.67 × 10 6  km 2 and 35.65 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. For both ESC and EBR, climate change expanded the northern boundary of potential distributions northward approximately 600 km by the middle of 21st century, and 1000 km by the end of 21st century under RCP 8.5. However, the suitable range decreased to the south in the Southern Hemisphere because of heat stress. The modelled potential distributions of ESC and EBR in the United States demonstrated that the climate was suitable for both weevils. Therefore, considering only climate suitability, both ESC and EBR can be considered as potential biological control agents against A. altissima with some confidence that climatic conditions are likely suitable.

Pressure and Force Characteristics of Noncircular Cylinders as Affected by Reynolds Number with a Method Included for Determining the Potential Flow About Arbitrary Shapes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polhamus, Edward C.; Geller, Edward W.; Grunwald, Kalman J.

1959-01-01

The low-speed pressure-distribution and force characteristics of several noncircular two-dimensional cylinders were measured in wind tunnel through a range of Reynolds numbers and flow incidences. A method of determining the potential-flow pressure distribution for arbitrary cross sections is described. Application of the data in predicting the spin characteristics of fuselages is briefly discussed.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Water quality monitoring: A comparative case study of municipal and Curtin Sarawak's lake samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand Kumar, A.; Jaison, J.; Prabakaran, K.; Nagarajan, R.; Chan, Y. S.

2016-03-01

In this study, particle size distribution and zeta potential of the suspended particles in municipal water and lake surface water of Curtin Sarawak's lake were compared and the samples were analysed using dynamic light scattering method. High concentration of suspended particles affects the water quality as well as suppresses the aquatic photosynthetic systems. A new approach has been carried out in the current work to determine the particle size distribution and zeta potential of the suspended particles present in the water samples. The results for the lake samples showed that the particle size ranges from 180nm to 1345nm and the zeta potential values ranges from -8.58 mV to -26.1 mV. High zeta potential value was observed in the surface water samples of Curtin Sarawak's lake compared to the municipal water. The zeta potential values represent that the suspended particles are stable and chances of agglomeration is lower in lake water samples. Moreover, the effects of physico-chemical parameters on zeta potential of the water samples were also discussed.

PREDICTING CLIMATE-INDUCED RANGE SHIFTS FOR MAMMALS: HOW GOOD ARE THE MODELS?

EPA Science Inventory

In order to manage wildlife and conserve biodiversity, it is critical that we understand the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions. Several different approaches to predicting climate-induced geographic range shifts have been proposed to address this proble...

Modeling the South American range of the cerulean warbler

Treesearch

S. Barker; S. Benítez; J. Baldy; D. Cisneros Heredia; G. Colorado Zuluaga; F. Cuesta; I. Davidson; D. Díaz; A. Ganzenmueller; S. García; M. K. Girvan; E. Guevara; P. Hamel; A. B. Hennessey; O. L. Hernández; S. Herzog; D. Mehlman; M. I. Moreno; E. Ozdenerol; P. Ramoni-Perazzi; M. Romero; D. Romo; P. Salaman; T. Santander; C. Tovar; M. Welton; T. Will; C. Pedraza; G. Galindo

2006-01-01

Successful conservation of rare species requires detailed knowledge of the species’ distribution. Modeling spatial distribution is an efficient means of locating potential habitats. Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea, Parulidae) was listed as a Vulnerable Species by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources in...

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-03-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species.

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

PubMed Central

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-01-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species. PMID:28276473

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest

PubMed Central

Murray, Dennis L.; Peers, Michael J. L.; Majchrzak, Yasmine N.; Wehtje, Morgan; Ferreira, Catarina; Pickles, Rob S. A.; Row, Jeffrey R.; Thornton, Daniel H.

2017-01-01

Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species’ environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species. PMID:28505173

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest.

PubMed

Murray, Dennis L; Peers, Michael J L; Majchrzak, Yasmine N; Wehtje, Morgan; Ferreira, Catarina; Pickles, Rob S A; Row, Jeffrey R; Thornton, Daniel H

2017-01-01

Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species' environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species.

Regional Extinctions and Quaternary Shifts in the Geographic Range of Lestodelphys halli, the Southernmost Living Marsupial: Clues for Its Conservation.

PubMed

Formoso, Anahí E; Martin, Gabriel M; Teta, Pablo; Carbajo, Aníbal E; Sauthier, Daniel E Udrizar; Pardiñas, Ulyses F J

2015-01-01

The Patagonian opossum (Lestodelphys halli), the southernmost living marsupial, inhabits dry and open environments, mainly in the Patagonian steppe (between ~32 °S and ~49 °S). Its rich fossil record shows its occurrence further north in Central Argentina during the Quaternary. The paleoenvironmental meaning of the past distribution of L. halli has been mostly addressed in a subjective framework without an explicit connection with the climatic "space" currently occupied by this animal. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of this species and the changes occurred in its geographic range during late Pleistocene-Holocene times and linked the results obtained with conservation issues. To this end, we generated three potential distribution models with fossil records and three with current ones, using MaxEnt software. These models showed a decrease in the suitable habitat conditions for the species, highlighting a range shift from Central-Eastern to South-Western Argentina. Our results support that the presence of L. halli in the Pampean region during the Pleistocene-Holocene can be related to precipitation and temperature variables and that its current presence in Patagonia is more related to temperature and dominant soils. The models obtained suggest that the species has been experiencing a reduction in its geographic range since the middle Holocene, a process that is in accordance with a general increase in moisture and temperature in Central Argentina. Considering the findings of our work and the future scenario of global warming projected for Patagonia, we might expect a harsh impact on the distribution range of this opossum in the near future.

Regional Distribution Models with Lack of Proximate Predictors: Africanized Honeybees Expanding North

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Esaias, Wayne E.; Ma, Peter L. A.; Morisette, Jeffery T.; Nickeson, Jaime E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nightingale, Joanne M.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Tan, Bin

2014-01-01

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species-environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Regional distribution models with lack of proximate predictors: Africanized honeybees expanding north

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Esaias, Wayne E.; Ma, Peter L.A.; Morisette, Jeffery T.; Nickeson, Jaime E.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nightingale, Joanne M.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Tan, Bin

2014-01-01

Species distribution models have often been hampered by poor local species data, reliance on coarse-scale climate predictors and the assumption that species–environment relationships, even with non-proximate predictors, are consistent across geographical space. Yet locally accurate maps of invasive species, such as the Africanized honeybee (AHB) in North America, are needed to support conservation efforts. Current AHB range maps are relatively coarse and are inconsistent with observed data. Our aim was to improve distribution maps using more proximate predictors (phenology) and using regional models rather than one across the entire range of interest to explore potential differences in drivers.

Range expansion potential of two co-occurring invasive vines to marginal habitats in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farooq, Shahid; Tad, Sonnur; Onen, Huseyin; Gunal, Hikmet; Caldiran, Ugur; Ozaslan, Cumali

2017-10-01

Niche distribution models accurately predict the potential distribution range of invasive plants into new habitats based on their climatic requirements in the native regions. However, these models usually ignore the marginal habitats which can limit the distribution of exotic plants. We therefore tested the seedling survival, growth and nutrient acquisition capabilities of two co-occurring invasive vines [Persicaria perfoliata (L.) H. Gross and Sicyos angulatus L.] in three different manipulative greenhouse experiments to infer their range expansion potential to marginal habitats in Turkey. First experiment included five different moisture availability regimes (100, 75, 50, 25 and 12.5% available water), second experiment consisted of four different salinity levels (0, 3, 6 and 12 dSm-1 soil salinity) and third experiment had four different soil textures (clay-1, clay-2, sandy loam and silt-clay-loam). Seedling mortality was only observed under extreme moisture deficiency in both plant species, while most of the transplanted seedlings of both species did not survive under 6 and 12 dSm-1 salinity levels. Soil textures had no effect on seedling survival. POLPE better tolerated low moisture availability and high salinity compared to SIYAN. Biomass production in both plant species was linearly reduced with increasing salinity and moisture deficiency. SIYAN invested more resources towards shoot, accumulated higher K and P, whereas POLPE maintained higher root-to-shoot ratio under all experimental conditions. Both plant species employed different strategies to cope with adverse environmental conditions, but failed to persist under high soil salinity and moisture deficiency. Our study suggest that both plant species have limited potential of range expansion to marginal habitats and will be limited to moist and humid areas only. Therefore, further research activities should be concentrated in these regions to develop effective management strategies against both species.

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales. PMID:23555771

At-sea distribution of satellite-tracked grey-faced petrels, Pterodroma macroptera gouldi, captured on the Ruamaahua (Aldermen) Islands, New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacLeod, Catriona; Adams, Josh; Lyver, Phil

2008-01-01

We used satellite telemetry to determine the at-sea distribution of 32 adult (non-breeders and failed breeders) Grey-faced Petrels, Pterodroma macroptera gouldi, during July-October in 2006 and 2007. Adults captured at breeding colonies on the Ruamaahua (Aldermen) Islands ranged across the southwestern Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea between 20-49°S and 142°E and 1300 W Petrels were located almost exclusively over offshore waters> 1000 m depth. The extent oftheir distributions was similar across years, but petrels ranged farther south and west in 2006. Individuals displayed a high degree ofspatial overlap (48-620/0 among individuals) and area use revealed three general "hotspots" within their overall range: waters near the Ruamaahua Islands; the central Tasman Sea; and the area surrounding the Chatham Rise. In July-August 2006, most petrels congregated over the Tasman Sea, but for the same period in 2007 were predominantly associated with Chatham Rise. The home ranges of petrels tended to overlap disproportionately more than expected with the Australian Exclusive Economic Zone and less than expected with High Seas, relative to the area available in each zone, in July-August 2006. Accordingly, multiple nations are responsible for determining potential impacts resulting from fisheries bycatch and potential resource competition with Grey-faced Petrels.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Modeling the South American range of the cerulean warbler

Treesearch

S. Barker; S. Benítez; J. Baldy; D. Cisneros Heredia; G. Colorado Zuluaga; F. Cuesta; I. Davidson; D. Díaz; A. Ganzenmueller; S. García; M. K. Girvan; E. Guevara; P. Hamel; A. B. Hennessey; O. L. Hernández; S. Herzog; D. Mehlman; M. I. Moreno; E. Ozdenerol; P. Ramoni-Perazzi; M. Romero; D. Romo; P. Salaman; T. Santander; C. Tovar; M. Welton; T. Will; C. Galindo Pedraza

2007-01-01

Successful conservation of rare species requires detailed knowledge of the species’ distribution. Modeling spatial distribution is an efficient means of locating potential habitats. Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea, Parulidae) was listed as a Vulnerable Species by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources in 2004...

The relationship between pelagic larval duration and range size in tropical reef fishes: a synthetic analysis

PubMed Central

Lester, Sarah E; Ruttenberg, Benjamin I

2005-01-01

We address the conflict in earlier results regarding the relationship between dispersal potential and range size. We examine all published pelagic larval duration data for tropical reef fishes. Larval duration is a convenient surrogate for dispersal potential in marine species that are sedentary as adults and that therefore only experience significant dispersal during their larval phase. Such extensive quantitative dispersal data are only available for fishes and thus we use a unique dataset to examine the relationship between dispersal potential and range size. We find that dispersal potential and range size are positively correlated only in the largest ocean basin, the Indo-Pacific, and that this pattern is driven primarily by the spatial distribution of habitat and dispersal barriers. Furthermore, the relationship strengthens at higher taxonomic levels, suggesting an evolutionary mechanism. We document a negative correlation between species richness and larval duration at the family level in the Indo-Pacific, implying that speciation rate may be negatively related to dispersal potential. If increased speciation rate within a taxonomic group results in smaller range sizes within that group, speciation rate could regulate the association between range size and dispersal potential. PMID:16007745

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

PubMed Central

Tang, Cindy Q.; Dong, Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira, Sonia; Matsui, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Haruka; He, Long-Yuan; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Tomita, Mizuki; Li, Xiao-Shuang; Yan, Hai-Zhong; Peng, Ming-Chun; Hu, Jun; Yang, Ruo-Han; Li, Wang-Jun; Yan, Kai; Hou, Xiuli; Zhang, Zhi-Ying; López-Pujol, Jordi

2017-01-01

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata. PMID:28272437

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Climate of Earth-Like Planets With and Without Ocean Heat Transport Orbiting a Range of M and K Stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, N. Y.; Jablonski, Emma R.; Way, Michael J.; Del Genio, Anthony; Roberge, Aki

2015-01-01

The mean surface temperature of a planet is now acknowledged as insufficient to surmise its full potential habitability. Advancing our understanding requires exploration with 3D general circulation models (GCMs), which can take into account how gradients and fluxes across a planet's surface influence the distribution of heat, clouds, and the potential for heterogeneous distribution of liquid water. Here we present 3D GCM simulations of the effects of alternative stellar spectra, instellation, model resolution, and ocean heat transport, on the simulated distribution of heat and moisture of an Earth-like planet (ELP).

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

A spatially explicit representation of conservation agriculture for application in global change studies.

PubMed

Prestele, Reinhard; Hirsch, Annette L; Davin, Edouard L; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Verburg, Peter H

2018-05-10

Conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable agricultural management strategy with the potential to alleviate some of the adverse effects of modern, industrial agriculture such as large-scale soil erosion, nutrient leaching and overexploitation of water resources. Moreover, agricultural land managed under CA is proposed to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation through reduced emission of greenhouse gases, increased solar radiation reflection, and the sustainable use of soil and water resources. Due to the lack of official reporting schemes, the amount of agricultural land managed under CA systems is uncertain and spatially explicit information about the distribution of CA required for various modeling studies is missing. Here, we present an approach to downscale present-day national-level estimates of CA to a 5 arcminute regular grid, based on multicriteria analysis. We provide a best estimate of CA distribution and an uncertainty range in the form of a low and high estimate of CA distribution, reflecting the inconsistency in CA definitions. We also design two scenarios of the potential future development of CA combining present-day data and an assessment of the potential for implementation using biophysical and socioeconomic factors. By our estimates, 122-215 Mha or 9%-15% of global arable land is currently managed under CA systems. The lower end of the range represents CA as an integrated system of permanent no-tillage, crop residue management and crop rotations, while the high estimate includes a wider range of areas primarily devoted to temporary no-tillage or reduced tillage operations. Our scenario analysis suggests a future potential of CA in the range of 533-1130 Mha (38%-81% of global arable land). Our estimates can be used in various ecosystem modeling applications and are expected to help identifying more realistic climate mitigation and adaptation potentials of agricultural practices. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Data documenting the potential distribution of Aedes aegypti in the center of Veracruz, Mexico.

PubMed

Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Sandoval-Ruiz, César A; Mendoza-Palmero, Fredy S; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; Equihua, Miguel; Benítez, Griselda

2017-02-01

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "Establishment of Aedes aegypti (L.) in mountainous regions in Mexico: Increasing number of population at risk of mosquito-borne disease and future climate conditions" (M. Equihua, S. Ibáñez-Bernal, G. Benítez, I. Estrada-Contreras, C.A. Sandoval-Ruiz, F.S. Mendoza-Palmero, 2016) [1]. This article provides presence records in shapefile format used to generate maps of potential distribution of Aedes aegypti with different climate change scenarios as well as each of the maps obtained in raster format. In addition, tables with values of potential distribution of the vector as well as the average values of probability of presence including data of the mosquito incidence along the altitudinal range.

Design of a retarding potential grid system for a neutral particle analyzer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Titus, J. B., E-mail: jtitus@wisc.edu; Mezonlin, E. D.; Anderson, J. K.

2014-11-15

The ion energy distribution in a magnetically confined plasma can be inferred from charge exchange neutral particles. On the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST), deuterium neutrals are measured by the Florida A and M University compact neutral particle analyzer (CNPA) and the advanced neutral particle analyzer (ANPA). The CNPA energy range covers the bulk deuterium ions to the beginning of the fast ion tail (0.34–5.2 keV) with high-energy resolution (25 channels) while the ANPA covers the vast majority of the fast ion tail distribution (∼10–45 keV) with low energy resolution (10 channels). Though the ANPA has provided insight into fast ionmore » energization in MST plasma, more can be gained by increasing the energy resolution in that energy range. To utilize the energy resolution of the CNPA, fast ions can be retarded by an electric potential well, enabling their detection by the diagnostic. The ion energy distribution can be measured with arbitrary resolution by combining data from many similar MST discharges with different energy ranges on the CNPA, providing further insight into ion energization and fast ion dynamics on MST.« less

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foote, M.; Raup, D. M.

1996-01-01

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

Regional Extinctions and Quaternary Shifts in the Geographic Range of Lestodelphys halli, the Southernmost Living Marsupial: Clues for Its Conservation

PubMed Central

Formoso, Anahí E.; Martin, Gabriel M.; Teta, Pablo; Carbajo, Aníbal E.; Sauthier, Daniel E. Udrizar; Pardiñas, Ulyses F. J.

2015-01-01

The Patagonian opossum (Lestodelphys halli), the southernmost living marsupial, inhabits dry and open environments, mainly in the Patagonian steppe (between ~32°S and ~49°S). Its rich fossil record shows its occurrence further north in Central Argentina during the Quaternary. The paleoenvironmental meaning of the past distribution of L. halli has been mostly addressed in a subjective framework without an explicit connection with the climatic “space” currently occupied by this animal. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of this species and the changes occurred in its geographic range during late Pleistocene-Holocene times and linked the results obtained with conservation issues. To this end, we generated three potential distribution models with fossil records and three with current ones, using MaxEnt software. These models showed a decrease in the suitable habitat conditions for the species, highlighting a range shift from Central-Eastern to South-Western Argentina. Our results support that the presence of L. halli in the Pampean region during the Pleistocene-Holocene can be related to precipitation and temperature variables and that its current presence in Patagonia is more related to temperature and dominant soils. The models obtained suggest that the species has been experiencing a reduction in its geographic range since the middle Holocene, a process that is in accordance with a general increase in moisture and temperature in Central Argentina. Considering the findings of our work and the future scenario of global warming projected for Patagonia, we might expect a harsh impact on the distribution range of this opossum in the near future. PMID:26203650

Latitudinal shifts in spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks and spruce-fir forest distrbutions with climate change

Treesearch

D.W. Williams; Andrew Liebhold

1997-01-01

Changes in global temperatures over the next century resulting from the greenhouse effect may have profound effects on the distribution and abundance of insect populations. One general hypothesis is the poleward shift of species distributions. We investigated potential range shifts for the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, in the...

Potential impacts of climate change on bird and tree habitats within the Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Stephen Matthews; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Matthew. Peters

2010-01-01

The habitats associated with the distributions of bird and tree species vary with the resolution of investigation and regional context, and especially within high-elevation forests. Our understanding of how bird distributions may shift with climate change was advanced by our understanding of how climate shapes the boundaries of a species' range.

Sugar maple: its characteristics and potentials

Treesearch

Ralph D. Nyland

1999-01-01

Sugar maple dominates the northern hardwood forest, but grows over a broader geographic area. Conditions of soil and climate largely limit its distribution, and account for its less continuous cover along fringes of the range. Sugar maple regenerates readily following a wide range of overstory treatments. Success depends upon its status as advance regeneration,...

Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis H. Flather

2006-01-01

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and...

Long-Range Coulomb Effect in Intense Laser-Driven Photoelectron Dynamics.

PubMed

Quan, Wei; Hao, XiaoLei; Chen, YongJu; Yu, ShaoGang; Xu, SongPo; Wang, YanLan; Sun, RenPing; Lai, XuanYang; Wu, ChengYin; Gong, QiHuang; He, XianTu; Liu, XiaoJun; Chen, Jing

2016-06-03

In strong field atomic physics community, long-range Coulomb interaction has for a long time been overlooked and its significant role in intense laser-driven photoelectron dynamics eluded experimental observations. Here we report an experimental investigation of the effect of long-range Coulomb potential on the dynamics of near-zero-momentum photoelectrons produced in photo-ionization process of noble gas atoms in intense midinfrared laser pulses. By exploring the dependence of photoelectron distributions near zero momentum on laser intensity and wavelength, we unambiguously demonstrate that the long-range tail of the Coulomb potential (i.e., up to several hundreds atomic units) plays an important role in determining the photoelectron dynamics after the pulse ends.

Long-Range Coulomb Effect in Intense Laser-Driven Photoelectron Dynamics

PubMed Central

Quan, Wei; Hao, XiaoLei; Chen, YongJu; Yu, ShaoGang; Xu, SongPo; Wang, YanLan; Sun, RenPing; Lai, XuanYang; Wu, ChengYin; Gong, QiHuang; He, XianTu; Liu, XiaoJun; Chen, Jing

2016-01-01

In strong field atomic physics community, long-range Coulomb interaction has for a long time been overlooked and its significant role in intense laser-driven photoelectron dynamics eluded experimental observations. Here we report an experimental investigation of the effect of long-range Coulomb potential on the dynamics of near-zero-momentum photoelectrons produced in photo-ionization process of noble gas atoms in intense midinfrared laser pulses. By exploring the dependence of photoelectron distributions near zero momentum on laser intensity and wavelength, we unambiguously demonstrate that the long-range tail of the Coulomb potential (i.e., up to several hundreds atomic units) plays an important role in determining the photoelectron dynamics after the pulse ends. PMID:27256904

Systematic analysis of α elastic scattering with the São Paulo potential

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Charry-Pastrana, F. E., E-mail: feecharrypa@unal.edu.co; Pinilla, E. C.

2016-07-07

We describe systematically by collision energy and target mass, alpha elastic scattering angular distributions by using the São Paulo potential as the real part of the optical potential. The imaginary part is proportional to the real one by a factor N{sub i}. We find this parameter by fitting the theoretical angular distributions to the experimental cross sections through a χ{sup 2} minimization. The N{sub i} and their respective uncertainties, σ{sub Ni}, fall in the range 0.4 ≤ N{sub i} ± σ{sub N{sub i}} ≤ 0.8 for all the systems studied.

Poleward expansion of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) under climate change: implications for the spread of lyme disease.

PubMed

Roy-Dufresne, Emilie; Logan, Travis; Simon, Julie A; Chmura, Gail L; Millien, Virginie

2013-01-01

The white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) is an important reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi, the pathogen responsible for Lyme disease, and its distribution is expanding northward. We used an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis to identify the climatic factors associated with the distribution shift of the white-footed mouse over the last 30 years at the northern edge of its range, and modeled its current and potential future (2050) distributions using the platform BIOMOD. A mild and shorter winter is favouring the northern expansion of the white-footed mouse in Québec. With more favorable winter conditions projected by 2050, the distribution range of the white-footed mouse is expected to expand further northward by 3° latitude. We also show that today in southern Québec, the occurrence of B. burgdorferi is associated with high probability of presence of the white-footed mouse. Changes in the distribution of the white-footed mouse will likely alter the geographical range of B. burgdorferi and impact the public health in northern regions that have yet to be exposed to Lyme disease.

The Post-Glacial Species Velocity of Picea glauca following the Last Glacial Maximum in Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; Kelly, R.; Li, B.; Heath, K.; Hug, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to dramatic fluctuations to Earth's biodiversity that has not been observed since past interglacial periods. There is rising concern that Earth's warming climate will have significant impacts to current species ranges and the ability of a species to persist in a rapidly changing environment. The paleorecord provides information on past species distributions in relation to climate change, which can illuminate the patterns of potential future distributions of species. Particularly in areas where there are multiple potential limiting factors on a species' range, e.g. temperature, radiation, and evaporative demand, the spatial patterns of species migrations may be particularly complex. In this study, we assessed the change in the distributions of white spruce (Picea glauca) from the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM) to present-day for the entire state of Alaska. To accomplish this, we created species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated from modern vegetation data and high-resolution, downscaled climate surfaces at 60m. These SDMs were applied to downscaled modern and paleoclimate surfaces to produce estimated ranges of white spruce during the LGM and today. From this, we assessed the "species velocity", the rate at which white spruce would need to migrate to keep pace with climate change, with the goal of determining whether the expansion from the LGM to today originated from microclimate refugia. Higher species velocities indicate locations where climate changed drastically and white spruce would have needed to migrate rapidly to persist and avoid local extinction. Conversely, lower species velocities indicated locations where the local climate was changing less rapidly or was within the center of the range of white spruce, and indicated locations where white spruce distributions were unlikely to have changed significantly. Our results indicate the importance of topographic complexity in buffering the effects of climate change, particularly near the edges of the species' range.

Phase I: energy conservation potential of Portland Cement particle size distribution control. Progress report, November 1978-January 1979

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helmuth, R.A.

1979-03-01

Progress is reported on the energy conservation potential of Portland cement particle size distribution control. Results of preliminary concrete tests, Series IIIa and Series IIIb, effects of particle size ranges on strength and drying shrinkage, are presented. Series IV, effects of mixing and curing temperature, tests compare the properties of several good particle size controlled cements with normally ground cements at low and high temperatures. The work on the effects of high alkali and high sulfate clinker cements (Series V) has begun.

Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hahn, Micah; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2016-01-01

In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi ) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established.

Effects of climate change on niche shifts of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia.

PubMed

Rounaghi, Iman; Hosseinian Yousefkhani, Seyyed Saeed

2018-01-01

Genus Pseudotrapelus has a wide distribution in North Africa and in the Middle East. In the present study, we modeled the habitat suitability of two Omani species of the genus (Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi) to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on their distribution. Mean diurnal range and precipitation of wettest quarter are the most highly contributed variables for P. jensvindumi and P. dhofarensis, respectively. The potential distribution for P. dhofarensis in the current time covers the southern coastal regions of Oman, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and Socotra Island, but the suitable regions were reduced in the future prediction and limited to Yemen, Socotra Island, and Oman. There have not been any records of the species outside of Oman. Analysis of habitat suitability for P. jensvindumi indicated that the species is restricted to the Al Hajar Mountain of Oman and the southeast coastal region of Iran, but there are no records of the species from Iran. Because mean diurnal range will not be influenced by climate change in future, the potential distribution of the species is not expected to be changed in 2050. All predicted models were performed with the highest AUC (more than 0.97) using the Maxent method. Investigation to find unknown populations of these two species in Iran, Yemen, and Socotra Island is essential for developing conservation programs in the future.

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

PubMed

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands

PubMed Central

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J.; Wilkinson, Tim P.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.; McAdam, Jim H.; Moat, Justin F.

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements. PMID:27880846

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

PubMed Central

Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival. PMID:24752011

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands.

PubMed

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J; Wilkinson, Tim P; Clubbe, Colin P; Maclean, Ilya M D; McAdam, Jim H; Moat, Justin F

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

PubMed Central

Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; Hörnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

2013-01-01

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5–10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future. PMID:24130664

Hazardous air pollutants in industrial area of Mumbai - India.

PubMed

Srivastava, Anjali; Som, Dipanjali

2007-09-01

Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) have a potential to be distributed into different component of environment with varying persistence. In the current study fourteen HAPs have been quantified in the air using TO-17 method in an industrial area of Mumbai. The distribution of these HAPs in different environmental compartments have been calculated using multi media mass balance model, TaPL3, along with long range transport potential and persistence. Results show that most of the target compounds partition mostly in air. Phenol and trifluralin, partition predominantly into soil while ethyl benzene and xylene partition predominantly into vegetation compartment. Naphthalene has the highest persistence followed by ethyl benzene, xylene and 1,1,1 trihloro ethane. Long range transport potential is maximum for 1,1,1 trichloroethane. Assessment of human health risk in terms of non-carcinogenic hazard and carcinogenic risk due to exposure to HAPs. have been estimated for industrial workers and residents in the study area considering all possible exposure routes using the output from TaPL3 model. The overall carcinogenic risk for residents and workers are estimated as high as unity along with very high hazard potential.

New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Guangshun; Qi, Jinzhe; Wang, Guiming; Shi, Quanhua; Darman, Yury; Hebblewhite, Mark; Miquelle, Dale G.; Li, Zhilin; Zhang, Xue; Gu, Jiayin; Chang, Youde; Zhang, Minghai; Ma, Jianzhang

2015-01-01

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard’s historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km2 of current range and 21,173.7 km2 of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km2of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally. PMID:26638877

New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China.

PubMed

Jiang, Guangshun; Qi, Jinzhe; Wang, Guiming; Shi, Quanhua; Darman, Yury; Hebblewhite, Mark; Miquelle, Dale G; Li, Zhilin; Zhang, Xue; Gu, Jiayin; Chang, Youde; Zhang, Minghai; Ma, Jianzhang

2015-12-07

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard's historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km(2) of current range and 21,173.7 km(2) of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km(2)of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally.

Map of Life - A Dashboard for Monitoring Planetary Species Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jetz, W.

2016-12-01

Geographic information about biodiversity is vital for understanding the many services nature provides and their potential changes, yet remains unreliable and often insufficient. By integrating a wide range of knowledge about species distributions and their dynamics over time, Map of Life supports global biodiversity education, monitoring, research and decision-making. Built on a scalable web platform geared for large biodiversity and environmental data, Map of Life endeavors provides species range information globally and species lists for any area. With data and technology provided by NASA and Google Earth Engine, tools under development use remote sensing-based environmental layers to enable on-the-fly predictions of species distributions, range changes, and early warning signals for threatened species. The ultimate vision is a globally connected, collaborative knowledge- and tool-base for regional and local biodiversity decision-making, education, monitoring, and projection. For currently available tools, more information and to follow progress, go to MOL.org.

Avian abundance thresholds, human-altered landscapes, and the challenge of assemblage-level conservation

Treesearch

Kevin J. Gutzwiller; Samuel K. Riffell; Curtis H. Flather

2015-01-01

Context: Land-use change is a global phenomenon with potential to generate abrupt spatial changes in species’ distributions. Objectives: We assessed whether theory about the internal structure of bird species’ geographic ranges can be refined to reflect abrupt changes in distribution and abundance associated with human influences on landscapes, and whether the...

How many studies are necessary to compare niche-based models for geographic distributions? Inductive reasoning may fail at the end.

PubMed

Terribile, L C; Diniz-Filho, J A F; De Marco, P

2010-05-01

The use of ecological niche models (ENM) to generate potential geographic distributions of species has rapidly increased in ecology, conservation and evolutionary biology. Many methods are available and the most used are Maximum Entropy Method (MAXENT) and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP). Recent studies have shown that MAXENT perform better than GARP. Here we used the statistics methods of ROC - AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve) and bootstrap to evaluate the performance of GARP and MAXENT in generate potential distribution models for 39 species of New World coral snakes. We found that values of AUC for GARP ranged from 0.923 to 0.999, whereas those for MAXENT ranged from 0.877 to 0.999. On the whole, the differences in AUC were very small, but for 10 species GARP outperformed MAXENT. Means and standard deviations for 100 bootstrapped samples with sample sizes ranging from 3 to 30 species did not show any trends towards deviations from a zero difference in AUC values of GARP minus AUC values of MAXENT. Ours results suggest that further studies are still necessary to establish under which circumstances the statistical performance of the methods vary. However, it is also important to consider the possibility that this empirical inductive reasoning may fail in the end, because we almost certainly could not establish all potential scenarios generating variation in the relative performance of models.

Strangers in Paradise: The biogeographic range expansion of the foraminifera Amphistegina in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langer, M. R.; Weinmann, A. E.; Rödder, D.; Lötters, S.

2012-04-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become important tools in biogeography and biodiversity research over the last decades. They are mainly based on the fundamental niche concept and allow the correlative prediction of species' potential distributional ranges by combining occurrence records with information on environmental (e.g. climatic) conditions. The generated environmental envelope of a species is projected into geographic space, thus defining areas of adequate habitat suitability. Here we apply a species distribution model (SDM) to assess potential range expansions of Amphistegina spp. in the Mediterranean Sea under current und future climate conditions. The model uses an environmental envelope of information from localities where amphisteginids are currently known to occur. Amphisteginid foraminifers are a group of circumtropically distributed, larger symbiont-bearing, calcareous foraminifera that have a well-documented record as detectors of historical climate change. They are currently expanding their biogeographic range in the Mediterranean Sea and rapidly progressing northwestward, closely approaching the Adriatic and the Tyrrhenian Sea. The shift in range locally leads to profound ecological changes where amphisteginids have become the dominant species along entire stretches of coastline. Mass deposits of amphisteginids reflect an increased carbonate production and reduced assemblage diversity, and these are likely to trigger major changes in ecosystem functioning. It is anticipated that the ongoing warming trend will convey the northwestward migration of amphisteginid foraminifers. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a northwestward range extension and predicts dispersal through the straits of Sicily, Messina and Otranto into the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic Sea. Rapid proliferation and the extreme abundances of amphisteginid foraminifera affect the dynamic equilibrium of established foraminiferal biotas. In the eastern Mediterranean, diverse assemblages of shallow-water foraminifera are being replaced by monocultures of rapidly spreading amphisteginids. Climate change, through long-term temperature increase, will continue to promote the homogenization of foraminiferal fauna, ultimately leading to a meridionalization of the Mediterranean Sea.

Predicting presence and absence of trout (Salmo trutta) in Iran

PubMed Central

Mostafavi, Hossein; Pletterbauer, Florian; Coad, Brian W.; Mahini, Abdolrassoul Salman; Schinegger, Rafaela; Unfer, Günther; Trautwein, Clemens; Schmutz, Stefan

2014-01-01

Species distribution modelling, as a central issue in freshwater ecology, is an important tool for conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems. The brown trout (Salmo trutta) is a sensitive species which reacts to habitat changes induced by human impacts. Therefore, the identification of suitable habitats is essential. This study explores the potential distribution of brown trout by a species distribution modelling approach for Iran. Furthermore, modelling results are compared to the distribution described in the literature. Areas outside the currently known distribution which may offer potential habitats for brown trout are identified. The species distribution modelling was based on five different modelling techniques: Generalised Linear Model, Generalised Additive Model, Generalised Boosting Model, Classification Tree Analysis and Random Forests, which are finally summarised in an ensemble forecasting approach. We considered four environmental descriptors at the local scale (slope, bankfull width, wetted width, and elevation) and three climatic parameters (mean air temperature, range of air temperature and annual precipitation) which were extracted on three different spatial extents (1/5/10 km). The performance of all models was excellent (≥0.8) according to the TSS (True Skill Statistic) criterion. Slope, mean and range of air temperature were the most important variables in predicting brown trout occurrence. Presented results deepen the knowledge about distribution patterns of brown trout in Iran. Moreover, this study gives a basic background for the future development of assessment methods for riverine ecosystems in Iran. PMID:24707064

The Potential for Spatial Distribution Indices to Signal Thresholds in Marine Fish Biomass

PubMed Central

Reuchlin-Hugenholtz, Emilie

2015-01-01

The frequently observed positive relationship between fish population abundance and spatial distribution suggests that changes in distribution can be indicative of trends in abundance. If contractions in spatial distribution precede declines in spawning stock biomass (SSB), spatial distribution reference points could complement the SSB reference points that are commonly used in marine conservation biology and fisheries management. When relevant spatial distribution information is integrated into fisheries management and recovery plans, risks and uncertainties associated with a plan based solely on the SSB criterion would be reduced. To assess the added value of spatial distribution data, we examine the relationship between SSB and four metrics of spatial distribution intended to reflect changes in population range, concentration, and density for 10 demersal populations (9 species) inhabiting the Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic. Our primary purpose is to assess their potential to serve as indices of SSB, using fisheries independent survey data. We find that metrics of density offer the best correlate of spawner biomass. A decline in the frequency of encountering high density areas is associated with, and in a few cases preceded by, rapid declines in SSB in 6 of 10 populations. Density-based indices have considerable potential to serve both as an indicator of SSB and as spatially based reference points in fisheries management. PMID:25789624

Large-scale determinants of intestinal schistosomiasis and intermediate host snail distribution across Africa: does climate matter?

PubMed

Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope; Hürlimann, Eveline; Schur, Nadine; Saarnak, Christopher F L; Simoonga, Christopher; Mubita, Patricia; Kabatereine, Narcis B; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Rahbek, Carsten; Kristensen, Thomas K

2013-11-01

The geographical ranges of most species, including many infectious disease agents and their vectors and intermediate hosts, are assumed to be constrained by climatic tolerances, mainly temperature. It has been suggested that global warming will cause an expansion of the areas potentially suitable for infectious disease transmission. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is governed by a myriad of ecological, economic, evolutionary and social factors. Hence, a deeper understanding of the total disease system (pathogens, vectors and hosts) and its drivers is important for predicting responses to climate change. Here, we combine a growing degree day model for Schistosoma mansoni with species distribution models for the intermediate host snail (Biomphalaria spp.) to investigate large-scale environmental determinants of the distribution of the African S. mansoni-Biomphalaria system and potential impacts of climatic changes. Snail species distribution models included several combinations of climatic and habitat-related predictors; the latter divided into "natural" and "human-impacted" habitat variables to measure anthropogenic influence. The predictive performance of the combined snail-parasite model was evaluated against a comprehensive compilation of historical S. mansoni parasitological survey records, and then examined for two climate change scenarios of increasing severity for 2080. Future projections indicate that while the potential S. mansoni transmission area expands, the snail ranges are more likely to contract and/or move into cooler areas in the south and east. Importantly, we also note that even though climate per se matters, the impact of humans on habitat play a crucial role in determining the distribution of the intermediate host snails in Africa. Thus, a future contraction in the geographical range size of the intermediate host snails caused by climatic changes does not necessarily translate into a decrease or zero-sum change in human schistosomiasis prevalence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Kutywayo, Dumisani; Chemura, Abel; Kusena, Winmore; Chidoko, Pardon; Mahoya, Caleb

2013-01-01

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. PMID:24014222

Chaotic optical time-domain reflectometry using a distributed feedback laser diode modulated by an improved Colpitts oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing Xia; Xu, Hang; Liu, Li; Su, Peng Cheng; Zhang, Jian Guo

2015-05-01

We report a chaotic optical time-domain reflectometry for fiber fault location, where a chaotic probe signal is generated by driving a distributed feedback laser diode with an improved Colpitts chaotic oscillator. The results show that the unterminated fiber end, the loose connector, and the mismatch connector can be precisely located. A measurement range of approximately 91 km and a range independent resolution of 6 cm are achieved. This implementation method is easy to integrate and is cost effective, which gives it great potential for commercial applications.

Tunneling and reflection in unimolecular reaction kinetic energy release distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, K.

2018-02-01

The kinetic energy release distributions in unimolecular reactions is calculated with detailed balance theory, taking into account the tunneling and the reflection coefficient in three different types of transition states; (i) a saddle point corresponding to a standard RRKM-type theory, (ii) an attachment Langevin cross section, and (iii) an absorbing sphere potential at short range, without long range interactions. Corrections are significant in the one dimensional saddle point states. Very light and lightly bound absorbing systems will show measurable effects in decays from the absorbing sphere, whereas the Langevin cross section is essentially unchanged.

Effects of Neutral Density on Energetic Ions Produced Near High-Current Hollow Cathodes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kameyama, Ikuya

1997-01-01

Energy distributions of ion current from high-current, xenon hollow cathodes, which are essential information to understand erosion phenomena observed in high-power ion thrusters, were obtained using an electrostatic energy analyzer (ESA). The effects of ambient pressure and external flow rate introduced immediately downstream of hollow cathode on ion currents with energies greater than that associated with the cathode-to-anode potential difference were investigated. The results were analyzed to determine the changes in the magnitudes of ion currents to the ESA at various energies. Either increasing the ambient pressure or adding external flow induces an increase in the distribution of ion currents with moderate energies (epsilon less than 25 to 35 eV) and a decrease in the distribution for high energies (epsilon greater than 25 to 35 eV). The magnitude of the current distribution increase in the moderate energy range is greater for a cathode equipped with a toroidal keeper than for one without a keeper, but the distribution in the high energy range does not seem to be affected by a keeper. An MHD model, which has been proposed to describe energetic-ion production mechanism in hollow cathode at high discharge currents, was developed to describe these effects. The results show, however, that this model involves no mechanism by which a significant increase of ion current could occur at any energy. It was found, on the other hand, that the potential-hill model of energetic ion production, which assumes existence of a local maximum of plasma potential, could explain combined increases in the currents of ions with moderate energies and decreases in high energy ions due to increased neutral atom density using a charge-exchange mechanism. The existing, simplified version of the potential-hill model, however, shows poor quantitative agreement with measured ion-current-energy-distribution changes induced by neutral density changes.

Plasma layers near the electrodes of a cesium diode - Anode layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oganezov, Z. A.; Timoshenko, L. S.; Tskhakaya, V. K.

1982-08-01

A planar electron beam probe is used to study the plasma layer in contact with a nonemitting electrode. It is found that the field distribution in the space-charge region of the layer adjacent to a nonemitting electrode is linear and obeys a specific empirical relation over a large range of variation in the plasma parameters, while the potential distribution has a corresponding parabolic form. In order for these values to be consistent, it is necessary to assume that the potential at the boundary between the quasi-neutral plasma and the space-charge is equal to a value which is substantially larger than the theoretically permitted potential drop in a quasi-neutral plasma.

Atomistic simulations of TeO₂-based glasses: interatomic potentials and molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Gulenko, Anastasia; Masson, Olivier; Berghout, Abid; Hamani, David; Thomas, Philippe

2014-07-21

In this work we present for the first time empirical interatomic potentials that are able to reproduce TeO2-based systems. Using these potentials in classical molecular dynamics simulations, we obtained first results for the pure TeO2 glass structure model. The calculated pair distribution function is in good agreement with the experimental one, which indicates a realistic glass structure model. We investigated the short- and medium-range TeO2 glass structures. The local environment of the Te atom strongly varies, so that the glass structure model has a broad Q polyhedral distribution. The glass network is described as weakly connected with a large number of terminal oxygen atoms.

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Kaiser, Lauren R.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

2017-01-01

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensi- fied conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these spe- cies were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai’i for these Kaua’i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Mass elevation and lee effects markedly lift the elevational distribution of ground beetles in the Himalaya-Tibet orogen

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Joachim; Böhner, Jürgen; Brandl, Roland; Opgenoorth, Lars

2017-01-01

Mass elevation and lee effects markedly influence snow lines and tree lines in high mountain systems. However, their impact on other phenomena or groups of organisms has not yet been quantified. Here we quantitatively studied their influence in the Himalaya–Tibet orogen on the distribution of ground beetles as model organisms, specifically whether the ground beetle distribution increases from the outer to the inner parts of the orogen, against latitudinal effects. We also tested whether July temperature and solar radiation are predictors of the beetle’s elevational distribution ranges. Finally, we discussed the general importance of these effects for the distributional and evolutionary history of the biota of High Asia. We modelled spatially explicit estimates of variables characterizing temperature and solar radiation and correlated the variables with the respective lower elevational range of 118 species of ground beetles from 76 high-alpine locations. Both July temperature and solar radiation significantly positively correlated with the elevational ranges of high-alpine beetles. Against the latitudinal trend, the median elevation of the respective species distributions increased by 800 m from the Himalayan south face north to the Transhimalaya. Our results indicate that an increase in seasonal temperature due to mass elevation and lee effects substantially impact the regional distribution patterns of alpine ground beetles of the Himalaya–Tibet orogen and are likely to affect also other soil biota there and in mountain ranges worldwide. Since these effects must have changed during orogenesis, their potential impact must be considered when biogeographic scenarios based on geological models are derived. As this has not been the practice, we believe that large biases likely exist in many paleoecological and evolutionary studies dealing with the biota from the Himalaya-Tibet orogen and mountain ranges worldwide. PMID:28339461

Increasing sea surface temperature and range shifts of intertidal gastropods along the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Cacabelos, Eva; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2013-03-01

There are well-documented changes in abundance and geographical range of intertidal invertebrates related to climate change at north Europe. However, the effect of sea surface warming on intertidal invertebrates has been poorly studied at lower latitudes. Here we analyze potential changes in the abundance patterns and distribution range of rocky intertidal gastropods related to climate change along the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, the spatial distribution and range of sub-tropical, warm- and cold-water species of intertidal gastropods was explored by a fully hierarchical sampling design considering four different spatial scales, i.e. from region (100 s of km apart) to quadrats (ms apart). Variability on their patterns of abundance was explored by analysis of variance, changes on their distribution ranges were detected by comparing with previous records and their relationship with sea water temperature was explored by rank correlation analyses. Mean values of sea surface temperature along the Iberian coast, between 1949 and 2010, were obtained from in situ data compiled for three different grid squares: south Portugal, north Portugal, and Galicia. Lusitanian species did not show significant correlation with sea water temperature or changes on their distributional range or abundance, along the temperature gradient considered. The sub-tropical species Siphonaria pectinata has, however, increased its distribution range while boreal cold-water species showed the opposite pattern. The latter was more evident for Littorina littorea that was almost absent from the studied rocky shores of the Iberian Peninsula. Sub-tropical and boreal species showed significant but opposite correlation with sea water temperature. We hypothesized that the energetic cost of frequent exposures to sub-lethal temperatures might be responsible for these shifts. Therefore, intertidal gastropods at the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula coast are responding to the effect of global warming as it is happening at higher latitudes. However, the identity of the species showing changes in their range of distribution was different.

Effect of dispersal at range edges on the structure of species ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Range edges are of particular interest to ecology because they hold key insights into the limits of the realized niche and associated population dynamics. A recent feature of Oikos summarized the state of the art on range edge ecology. While the typical question is what causes range edges, another important question is how range edges influence the distribution of abundances across a species geographic range when dispersal is present. We used a single species population dynamics model on a coupled-lattice to determine the effects of dispersal on peripheral populations as compared to populations at the core of the range. In the absence of resource gradients, the reduced neighborhood and thus lower connectivity or higher isolation among populations at the range edge alone led to significantly lower population sizes in the periphery of the range than in the core. Lower population sizes mean higher extinction risks and lower adaptability at the range edge, which could inhibit or slow range expansions, and thus effectively stabilize range edges. The strength of this effect depended on the potential population growth rate and the maximum dispersal distance. Lower potential population growth rates led to a stronger effect of dispersal resulting in a higher difference in population sizes between the two areas. The differential effect of dispersal on population sizes at the core and periphery of the range in the absence of resource gradients implies that traditional, habitat-based distribution models could result in misleading conclusions about the habitat quality in the periphery. Lower population sizes at the periphery are also relevant to conservation, because habitat removal not only eliminates populations but also creates new edges. Populations bordering these new edges may experience declines, due to their increased isolation. ?? OIKOS.

Evaluation of coalbed gas potential of the Seelyville Coal Member, Indiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drobniak, A.; Mastalerz, Maria; Rupp, J.; Eaton, N.

2004-01-01

The Seelyville Coal Member of the Linton Formation in Indiana potentially contains 0.03 trillion m3 (1.1 TCF) of coalbed gas. The gas content determined by canister desorption technique ranges from 0.5 to 5.7 cm3/g on dry ash free basis (15.4 to 182.2 scf/ton). The controls on gas content distribution are complex, and cannot be explained by the coal rank alone. Ash content and the lithology of the overlying strata, among other factors, may influence this distribution. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Measurement of Visuo-Spatial and Verbal-Numerical Working Memory: Development of IRT-Based Scales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vock, Miriam; Holling, Heinz

2008-01-01

The objective of this study is to explore the potential for developing IRT-based working memory scales for assessing specific working memory components in children (8-13 years). These working memory scales should measure cognitive abilities reliably in the upper range of ability distribution as well as in the normal range, and provide a…

The range and distribution of shortleaf pine in Missouri

Treesearch

Franklin G. Liming

1946-01-01

Shortleaf pine is one of the most valuable timber species in Missouri and, within its present and potential range, should have an important role in the restoration of the productivity of the forests. The pine will produce more stems per acre, greater merchantable lengths, and consequently a greater volume of usable wood per acre than the associated hardwood species. It...

Modeling potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus) reservoir, in Argentina.

PubMed

Andreo, Verónica; Glass, Gregory; Shields, Timothy; Provensal, Cecilia; Polop, Jaime

2011-09-01

We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans.

Environmental constraints on the invasion of Triadica sebifera in the eastern United States: an experimental field assessment.

PubMed

Pattison, Robert R; Mack, Richard N

2009-01-01

Identifying the environmental constraints that affect the distribution of an invasive species is fundamental to its effective control. Triadica sebifera (Chinese tallow tree) has invaded the southeastern United States, but its potential for further range and habitat extension has been unresolved. We explored experimentally environmental factors in macro- and microhabitats that affect its persistence at five widely separated sites along the Atlantic seaboard of the United States and at two sites inland; three sites occur well beyond the tree's current range. At each site, seeds and young vegetative plants (0.5-0.65 m tall) of T. sebifera were placed in four microhabitats (closed-canopy upland, closed-canopy lowland, open-canopy upland, and open-canopy lowland). Plant growth, leaf CO(2) assimilation rates, leaf N concentrations and delta(13)C ratios, and stem water potential were measured for two growing seasons. Percent seed germination was consistently higher in open-canopy microhabitats and lowest at northern and inland sites. T. sebifera grew in all open-canopy microhabitats, even 300-500 km beyond its current distribution. Plant growth in closed-canopy habitats was lower, attributable to lower carbon gain per unit leaf area in shaded compared with open-canopy environments, especially at northern and inland sites. Neither competition, other than canopy shade, nor grazing was a key constraint on distribution at any scale. Our results demonstrate that T. sebifera is dispersal limited at landscape scales but limited locally by dispersal and overstory shade; it has yet to occupy the full extent of its new range in North America. Quantifying environmental factors both within and well beyond a species' current range can effectively highlight the limits on its distribution.

Below-ground biotic interactions moderated the postglacial range dynamics of trees.

PubMed

Pither, Jason; Pickles, Brian J; Simard, Suzanne W; Ordonez, Alejandro; Williams, John W

2018-05-17

Tree range shifts during geohistorical global change events provide a useful real-world model for how future changes in forest biomes may proceed. In North America, during the last deglaciation, the distributions of tree taxa varied significantly as regards the rate and direction of their responses for reasons that remain unclear. Local-scale processes such as establishment, growth, and resilience to environmental stress ultimately influence range dynamics. Despite the fact that interactions between trees and soil biota are known to influence local-scale processes profoundly, evidence linking below-ground interactions to distribution dynamics remains scarce. We evaluated climate velocity and plant traits related to dispersal, environmental tolerance and below-ground symbioses, as potential predictors of the geohistorical rates of expansion and contraction of the core distributions of tree genera between 16 and 7 ka bp. The receptivity of host genera towards ectomycorrhizal fungi was strongly supported as a positive predictor of poleward rates of distribution expansion, and seed mass was supported as a negative predictor. Climate velocity gained support as a positive predictor of rates of distribution contraction, but not expansion. Our findings indicate that understanding how tree distributions, and thus forest ecosystems, respond to climate change requires the simultaneous consideration of traits, biotic interactions and abiotic forcing. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Epidermis Microstructure Inspired Graphene Pressure Sensor with Random Distributed Spinosum for High Sensitivity and Large Linearity.

PubMed

Pang, Yu; Zhang, Kunning; Yang, Zhen; Jiang, Song; Ju, Zhenyi; Li, Yuxing; Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Danyang; Jian, Muqiang; Zhang, Yingying; Liang, Renrong; Tian, He; Yang, Yi; Ren, Tian-Ling

2018-03-27

Recently, wearable pressure sensors have attracted tremendous attention because of their potential applications in monitoring physiological signals for human healthcare. Sensitivity and linearity are the two most essential parameters for pressure sensors. Although various designed micro/nanostructure morphologies have been introduced, the trade-off between sensitivity and linearity has not been well balanced. Human skin, which contains force receptors in a reticular layer, has a high sensitivity even for large external stimuli. Herein, inspired by the skin epidermis with high-performance force sensing, we have proposed a special surface morphology with spinosum microstructure of random distribution via the combination of an abrasive paper template and reduced graphene oxide. The sensitivity of the graphene pressure sensor with random distribution spinosum (RDS) microstructure is as high as 25.1 kPa -1 in a wide linearity range of 0-2.6 kPa. Our pressure sensor exhibits superior comprehensive properties compared with previous surface-modified pressure sensors. According to simulation and mechanism analyses, the spinosum microstructure and random distribution contribute to the high sensitivity and large linearity range, respectively. In addition, the pressure sensor shows promising potential in detecting human physiological signals, such as heartbeat, respiration, phonation, and human motions of a pushup, arm bending, and walking. The wearable pressure sensor array was further used to detect gait states of supination, neutral, and pronation. The RDS microstructure provides an alternative strategy to improve the performance of pressure sensors and extend their potential applications in monitoring human activities.

Use of a latitudinal gradient in bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) production to examine physiological controls of biotic boundaries and potential responses to environment change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, B.A.; McKee, K.L.

2004-01-01

Aim: Predictions of vegetation change with global warming require models that accurately reflect physiological processes underlying growth limitations and species distributions. However, information about environmental controls on physiology and consequent effects on species boundaries and ecosystem functions such as production is limited, especially for forested wetlands that are potentially important carbon sinks. Location: The bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) region of the south-eastern United States was studied to examine how production of an important forested wetland varies with latitude and temperature as well as local hydrology. Methods: We used published data to analyse litter production across a latitudinal gradient from 26.2 to 37.8?? N to determine how bald cypress swamps might respond to alternate climate conditions and what changes might occur throughout the distributional range. Results: Litterfall rates followed a bell shaped curve, indicating that production was more limited at the distributional boundaries (c. 225 g/m2 year-1) compared to the mid-range (795-1126 g/m2 year-1). This pattern suggests that conditions are sub-optimal near both boundaries and that the absence of populations outside this latitudinal range may be largely due to physiological constraints on the carbon balance of dominant species. While dispersal limitations cannot be totally discounted, competition with other wetland types at the extremes of the range does not seem likely to be important because the relative basal area of bald cypress does not decrease near the edges of the range. Impaired hydrology depressed production across the entire range, but more in the south than the north. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest that (1) physiological limitations constrain biotic boundaries of bald cypress swamps; (2) future changes in global temperature would affect litter production in a nonlinear manner across the distributional range; (3) local changes in hydrology may interact with climate to further reduce litter production, particularly at lower latitudes; and (4) southernmost forests could be extirpated if environmental conditions compromise carbon balance and water-use efficiency of trees. ?? 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Particle size distribution of the radon progeny and ambient aerosols in the Underground Tourist Route "Liczyrzepa" Mine in Kowary Adit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wołoszczuk, Katarzyna; Skubacz, Krystian

2018-01-01

Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, in cooperation with Central Mining Institute performed measurements of radon concentration in air, potential alpha energy concentration (PAEC), particle size distribution of the radon progeny and ambient aerosols in the Underground Tourist-Educational Route "Liczyrzepa" Mine in Kowary Adit. A research study was developed to investigate the appropriate dose conversion factors for short-lived radon progeny. The particle size distribution of radon progeny was determined using Radon Progeny Particle Size Spectrometer (RPPSS). The device allows to receive the distribution of PAEC in the particle size range from 0.6 nm to 2494 nm, based on their activity measured on 8 stages composed of impaction plates or diffusion screens. The measurements of the ambient airborne particle size distribution were performed in the range from a few nanometres to about 20 micrometres using Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) spectrometer and the Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer Spectrometer (SMPS).

Assessing the Congruence of Thermal Niche Estimations Derived from Distribution and Physiological Data. A Test Using Diving Beetles

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Aragón, Pedro; Bilton, David T.; Lobo, Jorge M.

2012-01-01

A basic aim of ecology is to understand the determinants of organismal distribution, the niche concept and species distribution models providing key frameworks to approach the problem. As temperature is one of the most important factors affecting species distribution, the estimation of thermal limits is crucially important for inferring range constraints. It is expectable that thermal physiology data derived from laboratory experiments and species' occurrences may express different aspects of the species' niche. However, there is no study systematically testing this prediction in a given taxonomic group while controlling by potential phylogenetic inertia. We estimate the thermal niches of twelve Palaearctic diving beetles species using physiological data derived from experimental analyses in order to examine the extent to which these coincided with those estimated from distribution models based on observed occurrences. We found that thermal niche estimates derived from both approaches lack general congruence, and these results were similar before and after controlling by phylogeny. The congruence between potential distributions obtained from the two different procedures was also explored, and we found again that the percentage of agreement were not very high (∼60%). We confirm that both thermal niche estimates derived from geographical and physiological data are likely to misrepresent the true range of climatic variation that these diving beetles are able to tolerate, and so these procedures could be considered as incomplete but complementary estimations of an inaccessible reality. PMID:23133560

Ultra-short FBG based distributed sensing using shifted optical Gaussian filters and microwave-network analysis.

PubMed

Cheng, Rui; Xia, Li; Sima, Chaotan; Ran, Yanli; Rohollahnejad, Jalal; Zhou, Jiaao; Wen, Yongqiang; Yu, Can

2016-02-08

Ultrashort fiber Bragg gratings (US-FBGs) have significant potential as weak grating sensors for distributed sensing, but the exploitation have been limited by their inherent broad spectra that are undesirable for most traditional wavelength measurements. To address this, we have recently introduced a new interrogation concept using shifted optical Gaussian filters (SOGF) which is well suitable for US-FBG measurements. Here, we apply it to demonstrate, for the first time, an US-FBG-based self-referencing distributed optical sensing technique, with the advantages of adjustable sensitivity and range, high-speed and wide-range (potentially >14000 με) intensity-based detection, and resistance to disturbance by nonuniform parameter distribution. The entire system is essentially based on a microwave network, which incorporates the SOGF with a fiber delay-line between the two arms. Differential detections of the cascaded US-FBGs are performed individually in the network time-domain response which can be obtained by analyzing its complex frequency response. Experimental results are presented and discussed using eight cascaded US-FBGs. A comprehensive numerical analysis is also conducted to assess the system performance, which shows that the use of US-FBGs instead of conventional weak FBGs could significantly improve the power budget and capacity of the distributed sensing system while maintaining the crosstalk level and intensity decay rate, providing a promising route for future sensing applications.

Heterogeneous distributional responses to climate warming: evidence from rodents along a subtropical elevational gradient.

PubMed

Wen, Zhixin; Wu, Yi; Ge, Deyan; Cheng, Jilong; Chang, Yongbin; Yang, Zhisong; Xia, Lin; Yang, Qisen

2017-04-20

Understanding whether species' elevational range is shifting in response to directional changes in climate and whether there is a predictable pattern in that response is one of the major challenges in ecology. However, so far very little is known about the distributional responses of subtropical species to climate change, especially for small mammals. In this study, we examined the elevational range shifts at three range points (upper and lower range limits and abundance-weighted range centre) of rodents over a 30-year period (1986 to 2014-2015), in a subtropical forest of Southwest China. We also examined the influences of four ecological traits (body mass, habitat breadth, diet and daily activity pattern) on the upslope shifts in species' abundance-weighted range centres. Despite the warming trend between 1986 and 2015, the 11 rodent species in analysis displayed heterogeneous dynamics at each of the three range points. Species which have larger body sizes and narrower habitat breadths, show both diurnal and nocturnal activities and more specialized dietary requirements, are more likely to exhibit upslope shifts in abundance-weighted range centres. Species' distributional responses can be heterogeneous even though there are directional changes in climate. Our study indicates that climate-induced alleviation of competition and lag in response may potentially drive species' range shift, which may not conform to the expectation from climate change. Difference in traits can lead to different range dynamics. Our study also illustrates the merit of multi-faceted assessment in studying elevational range shifts.

[Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai province with Maximum Entropy model].

PubMed

Zhang, Lin; Hou, Xuexia; Liu, Huixin; Liu, Wei; Wan, Kanglin; Hao, Qin

2016-01-01

To predict the potential geographic distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai by using Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). The sero-diagnosis data of Lyme disease in 6 counties (Huzhu, Zeku, Tongde, Datong, Qilian and Xunhua) and the environmental and anthropogenic data including altitude, human footprint, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature in Qinghai province since 1990 were collected. By using the data of Huzhu Zeku and Tongde, the prediction of potential distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai was conducted with MaxEnt. The prediction results were compared with the human sero-prevalence of Lyme disease in Datong, Qilian and Xunhua counties in Qinghai. Three hot spots of Lyme disease were predicted in Qinghai, which were all in the east forest areas. Furthermore, the NDVI showed the most important role in the model prediction, followed by human footprint. Datong, Qilian and Xunhua counties were all in eastern Qinghai. Xunhua was in hot spot areaⅡ, Datong was close to the north of hot spot area Ⅲ, while Qilian with lowest sero-prevalence of Lyme disease was not in the hot spot areas. The data were well modeled in MaxEnt (Area Under Curve=0.980). The actual distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai was in consistent with the results of the model prediction. MaxEnt could be used in predicting the potential distribution patterns of Lyme disease. The distribution of vegetation and the range and intensity of human activity might be related with Lyme disease distribution.

High invasion potential of Hydrilla verticillata in the Americas predicted using ecological niche modeling combined with genetic data.

PubMed

Zhu, Jinning; Xu, Xuan; Tao, Qing; Yi, Panpan; Yu, Dan; Xu, Xinwei

2017-07-01

Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

A Current Perspective on the Historical Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Muriquis (Brachyteles spp.): Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The muriqui (Brachyteles spp.), endemic to the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, is the largest primate in South America and is endangered, mainly due to habitat loss. Its distribution limits are still uncertain and need to be resolved in order to determine their true conservation status. Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been used to estimate potential species distributions, even when information is incomplete. Here, we developed an environmental suitability model for the two endangered species of muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus and B. arachnoides) using Maxent software. Due to historical absence of muriquis, areas with predicted high habitat suitability yet historically never occupied, were excluded from the predicted historical distribution. Combining that information with the model, it is evident that rivers are potential dispersal barriers for the muriquis. Moreover, although the two species are environmentally separated in a large part of its distribution, there is a potential contact zone where the species apparently do not overlap. This separation might be due to either a physical (i.e., Serra da Mantiqueira mountains) or a biotic barrier (the species exclude one another). Therefore, in addition to environmental characteristics, physical and biotic barriers potentially shaped the limits of the muriqui historical range. Based on these considerations, we proposed the adjustment of their historical distributional limits. Currently only 7.6% of the predicted historical distribution of B. hypoxanthus and 12.9% of B. arachnoides remains forested and able to sustain viable muriqui populations. In addition to measurement of habitat loss we also identified areas for conservation concern where new muriqui populations might be found. PMID:26943910

Climate and pH predict the potential range of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea insularum) in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Byers, James E; McDowell, William G; Dodd, Shelley R; Haynie, Rebecca S; Pintor, Lauren M; Wilde, Susan B

2013-01-01

Predicting the potential range of invasive species is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, and management, and it can also inform us about a species' overall potential invasiveness. However, modeling the distribution of invasive species that have not reached their equilibrium distribution can be problematic for many predictive approaches. We apply the modeling approach of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) that is effective with incomplete, presence-only datasets to predict the distribution of the invasive island apple snail, Pomacea insularum. This freshwater snail is native to South America and has been spreading in the USA over the last decade from its initial introductions in Texas and Florida. It has now been documented throughout eight southeastern states. The snail's extensive consumption of aquatic vegetation and ability to accumulate and transmit algal toxins through the food web heighten concerns about its spread. Our model shows that under current climate conditions the snail should remain mostly confined to the coastal plain of the southeastern USA where it is limited by minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Furthermore, low pH waters (pH <5.5) are detrimental to the snail's survival and persistence. Of particular note are low-pH blackwater swamps, especially Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (with a pH below 4 in many areas), which are predicted to preclude the snail's establishment even though many of these areas are well matched climatically. Our results elucidate the factors that affect the regional distribution of P. insularum, while simultaneously presenting a spatial basis for the prediction of its future spread. Furthermore, the model for this species exemplifies that combining climatic and habitat variables is a powerful way to model distributions of invasive species.

Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: Implications for future range expansion

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDowell, W.G.; Benson, A.J.; Byers, J.E.

2014-01-01

1. Two dominant drivers of species distributions are climate and habitat, both of which are changing rapidly. Understanding the relative importance of variables that can control distributions is critical, especially for invasive species that may spread rapidly and have strong effects on ecosystems. 2. Here, we examine the relative importance of climate and habitat variables in controlling the distribution of the widespread invasive freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea, and we model its future distribution under a suite of climate scenarios using logistic regression and maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt). 3. Logistic regression identified climate variables as more important than habitat variables in controlling Corbicula distribution. MaxEnt modelling predicted Corbicula's range expansion westward and northward to occupy half of the contiguous United States. By 2080, Corbicula's potential range will expand 25–32%, with more than half of the continental United States being climatically suitable. 4. Our combination of multiple approaches has revealed the importance of climate over habitat in controlling Corbicula's distribution and validates the climate-only MaxEnt model, which can readily examine the consequences of future climate projections. 5. Given the strong influence of climate variables on Corbicula's distribution, as well as Corbicula's ability to disperse quickly and over long distances, Corbicula is poised to expand into New England and the northern Midwest of the United States. Thus, the direct effects of climate change will probably be compounded by the addition of Corbicula and its own influences on ecosystem function.

Phylogeographical structure inferred from cpDNA sequence variation of Zygophyllum xanthoxylon across north-west China.

PubMed

Shi, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Ming-Li

2015-03-01

Zygophyllum xanthoxylon, a desert species, displaying a broad east-west continuous distribution pattern in arid Northwestern China, can be considered as a model species to investigate the biogeographical history of this region. We sequenced two chloroplast DNA spacers (psbK-psbI and rpl32-trnL) in 226 individuals from 31 populations to explore the phylogeographical structure. Median-joining network was constructed and analysis of AMOVA, SMOVA, neutrality tests and distribution analysis were used to examine genetic structure and potential range expansion. Using species distribution modeling, the geographical distribution of Z. xanthoxylon was modeled during the present and at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Among 26 haplotypes, one was widely distributed, but most was restricted to either the eastern or western region. The populations with the highest levels of haplotype diversity were found in the Tianshan Mountains and its surroundings in the west, and the Helan Mountains and Alxa Plateau in the east. AMOVA and SAMOVA showed that over all populations, the species lacks phylogeographical structure, which is speculated to be the result of its specific biology. Neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analysis support past range expansions of the species. Comparing the current distribution to those cold and dry conditions in LGM, Z. xanthoxylon had a shrunken and more fragmented range during LGM. Based on the evidences from phylogeographical patterns, distribution of genetic variability, and paleodistribution modeling, Z. xanthoxylon is speculated most likely to have originated from the east and migrated westward via the Hexi Corridor.

Life history, diversity and distribution: A study of Japanese pteridophytes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Kato, Masako; Ricklefs, R.E.

2003-01-01

Many studies address the relationships between diversity or distribution and attributes of the physical environment. However, how these relationships are connected to variation in life history is poorly understood. This is particularly true in the case of pteridophytes. Japanese ferns and their allies comprise one of the best-known pteridophyte floras in the world. We analyzed ca 600 species of Japanese pteridophytes for which there is detailed information on distribution, reproduction, and chromosome number. Species richness was greatest in groups with a single reproductive mode (sexual, followed by apogamous), but distribution was greatest in species groups with multiple reproductive modes: sexual plus either sterile (irregular in meiosis) or apogamous. Geographical ranges varied greatly among species with small chromosome numbers but were uniformly small among species having high chromosome numbers. Seasonally green (mostly summer green) species had significantly larger distribution ranges than evergreen species. Endemic species had higher proportions of apogamy and sterility than non-endemic species. Seasonally green species had significantly larger distributional ranges, and a smaller proportion of species with apogamous reproduction, than evergreen species. There was no clear relationship between distribution and spore size, either among endemic species, non-endemic species, or all species combined. There was no relationship between spore size and chromosome number when all species were combined. However, positive relationships were detected within three of the nine largest genera, suggesting potential phylogenetic effects. We concluded that habitat availability, rather than dispersability, may be the limiting factor for the distribution of pteridophytes in Japan.

Life history, diversity and distribution: a study of Japanese pteridophytes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Kato, Masako; Ricklefs, R.E.

2003-01-01

Many studies address the relationships between diversity or distribution and attributes of the physical environment. However, how these relationships are connected to variation in life history is poorly understood. This is particularly true in the case of pteridophytes. Japanese ferns and their allies comprise one of the best-known pteridophyte floras in the world. We analyzed ca 600 species of Japanese pteridophytes for which there is detailed information on distribution, reproduction, and chromosome number. Species richness was greatest in groups with a single reproductive mode (sexual, followed by apogamous), but distribution was greatest in species groups with multiple reproductive modes: sexual plus either sterile (irregular in meiosis) or apogamous. Geographical ranges varied greatly among species with small chromosome numbers but were uniformly small among species having high chromosome numbers. Seasonally green (mostly summer green) species had significantly larger distribution ranges than evergreen species. Endemic species had higher proportions of apogamy and sterility than non-endemic species. Seasonally green species had significantly larger distributional ranges, and a smaller proportion of species with apogamous reproduction, than evergreen species. There was no clear relationship between distribution and spore size, either among endemic species, non-endemic species, or all species combined. There was no relationship between spore size and chromosome number when all species were combined. However, positive relationships were detected within three of the nine largest genera, suggesting potential phylogenetic effects. We concluded that habitat availability, rather than dispersability, may be the limiting factor for the distribution of pteridophytes in Japan.

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile.

PubMed

Thompson, Denise M; Ligon, Day B; Patton, Jason C; Papeş, Monica

2017-04-01

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Understanding Peripheral Bat Populations Using Maximum-Entropy Suitability Modeling

PubMed Central

Barnhart, Paul R.; Gillam, Erin H.

2016-01-01

Individuals along the periphery of a species distribution regularly encounter more challenging environmental and climatic conditions than conspecifics near the center of the distribution. Due to these potential constraints, individuals in peripheral margins are expected to change their habitat and behavioral characteristics. Managers typically rely on species distribution maps when developing adequate management practices. However, these range maps are often too simplistic and do not provide adequate information as to what fine-scale biotic and abiotic factors are driving a species occurrence. In the last decade, habitat suitability modelling has become widely used as a substitute for simplistic distribution mapping which allows regional managers the ability to fine-tune management resources. The objectives of this study were to use maximum-entropy modeling to produce habitat suitability models for seven species that have a peripheral margin intersecting the state of North Dakota, according to current IUCN distributions, and determine the vegetative and climatic characteristics driving these models. Mistnetting resulted in the documentation of five species outside the IUCN distribution in North Dakota, indicating that current range maps for North Dakota, and potentially the northern Great Plains, are in need of update. Maximum-entropy modeling showed that temperature and not precipitation were the variables most important for model production. This fine-scale result highlights the importance of habitat suitability modelling as this information cannot be extracted from distribution maps. Our results provide baseline information needed for future research about how and why individuals residing in the peripheral margins of a species’ distribution may show marked differences in habitat use as a result of urban expansion, habitat loss, and climate change compared to more centralized populations. PMID:27935936

Griffiths phase and long-range correlations in a biologically motivated visual cortex model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girardi-Schappo, M.; Bortolotto, G. S.; Gonsalves, J. J.; Pinto, L. T.; Tragtenberg, M. H. R.

2016-07-01

Activity in the brain propagates as waves of firing neurons, namely avalanches. These waves’ size and duration distributions have been experimentally shown to display a stable power-law profile, long-range correlations and 1/f b power spectrum in vivo and in vitro. We study an avalanching biologically motivated model of mammals visual cortex and find an extended critical-like region - a Griffiths phase - characterized by divergent susceptibility and zero order parameter. This phase lies close to the expected experimental value of the excitatory postsynaptic potential in the cortex suggesting that critical be-havior may be found in the visual system. Avalanches are not perfectly power-law distributed, but it is possible to collapse the distributions and define a cutoff avalanche size that diverges as the network size is increased inside the critical region. The avalanches present long-range correlations and 1/f b power spectrum, matching experiments. The phase transition is analytically determined by a mean-field approximation.

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

PubMed

Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

2014-06-01

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vienna FORTRAN: A FORTRAN language extension for distributed memory multiprocessors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Barbara; Mehrotra, Piyush; Zima, Hans

1991-01-01

Exploiting the performance potential of distributed memory machines requires a careful distribution of data across the processors. Vienna FORTRAN is a language extension of FORTRAN which provides the user with a wide range of facilities for such mapping of data structures. However, programs in Vienna FORTRAN are written using global data references. Thus, the user has the advantage of a shared memory programming paradigm while explicitly controlling the placement of data. The basic features of Vienna FORTRAN are presented along with a set of examples illustrating the use of these features.

Programming in Vienna Fortran

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Barbara; Mehrotra, Piyush; Zima, Hans

1992-01-01

Exploiting the full performance potential of distributed memory machines requires a careful distribution of data across the processors. Vienna Fortran is a language extension of Fortran which provides the user with a wide range of facilities for such mapping of data structures. In contrast to current programming practice, programs in Vienna Fortran are written using global data references. Thus, the user has the advantages of a shared memory programming paradigm while explicitly controlling the data distribution. In this paper, we present the language features of Vienna Fortran for FORTRAN 77, together with examples illustrating the use of these features.

Ionic strength independence of charge distributions in solvation of biomolecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, J. J.; Sosnick, T. R.; Freed, K. F.

2014-12-01

Electrostatic forces enormously impact the structure, interactions, and function of biomolecules. We perform all-atom molecular dynamics simulations for 5 proteins and 5 RNAs to determine the dependence on ionic strength of the ion and water charge distributions surrounding the biomolecules, as well as the contributions of ions to the electrostatic free energy of interaction between the biomolecule and the surrounding salt solution (for a total of 40 different biomolecule/solvent combinations). Although water provides the dominant contribution to the charge density distribution and to the electrostatic potential even in 1M NaCl solutions, the contributions of water molecules and of ions to the total electrostatic interaction free energy with the solvated biomolecule are comparable. The electrostatic biomolecule/solvent interaction energies and the total charge distribution exhibit a remarkable insensitivity to salt concentrations over a huge range of salt concentrations (20 mM to 1M NaCl). The electrostatic potentials near the biomolecule's surface obtained from the MD simulations differ markedly, as expected, from the potentials predicted by continuum dielectric models, even though the total electrostatic interaction free energies are within 11% of each other.

Impacts of biogeographic history and marginal population genetics on species range limits: a case study of Liriodendron chinense.

PubMed

Yang, Aihong; Dick, Christopher W; Yao, Xiaohong; Huang, Hongwen

2016-05-10

Species ranges are influenced by past climate oscillations, geographical constraints, and adaptive potential to colonize novel habitats at range limits. This study used Liriodendron chinense, an important temperate Asian tree species, as a model system to evaluate the roles of biogeographic history and marginal population genetics in determining range limits. We examined the demographic history and genetic diversity of 29 L. chinense populations using both chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite loci. Significant phylogeographic structure was recovered with haplotype clusters coinciding with major mountain regions. Long-term demographical stability was suggested by mismatch distribution analyses, neutrality tests, and ecological niche models (ENM) and suggested the existence of LGM refuges within mountain regions. Differences in genetic diversity between central and marginal populations were not significant for either genomic region. However, asymmetrical gene flow was inferred from central populations to marginal populations, which could potentially limit range adaptation and expansion of L. chinense.

Range-azimuth decouple beamforming for frequency diverse array with Costas-sequence modulated frequency offsets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhe; Wang, Wen-Qin; Shao, Huaizong

2016-12-01

Different from the phased-array using the same carrier frequency for each transmit element, the frequency diverse array (FDA) uses a small frequency offset across the array elements to produce range-angle-dependent transmit beampattern. FDA radar provides new application capabilities and potentials due to its range-dependent transmit array beampattern, but the FDA using linearly increasing frequency offsets will produce a range and angle coupled transmit beampattern. In order to decouple the range-azimuth beampattern for FDA radar, this paper proposes a uniform linear array (ULA) FDA using Costas-sequence modulated frequency offsets to produce random-like energy distribution in the transmit beampattern and thumbtack transmit-receive beampattern. In doing so, the range and angle of targets can be unambiguously estimated through matched filtering and subspace decomposition algorithms in the receiver signal processor. Moreover, random-like energy distributed beampattern can also be utilized for low probability of intercept (LPI) radar applications. Numerical results show that the proposed scheme outperforms the standard FDA in focusing the transmit energy, especially in the range dimension.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet.

PubMed

Hermes, Claudia; Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet

PubMed Central

Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E.; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H. Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes. PMID:29364949

Elevation and stream-size thresholds affect distributions of native and exotic warmwater fishes in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Hubert, W.A.; Rahel, F.J.

2004-01-01

This study was conducted to assess the influence of elevation and stream width on the occurrence of 28 native and six exotic fish species using data collected (1954-2003) from 1,114 stream reaches in Wyoming. Medians and ranges of elevation and stream width were used to assess how elevation and stream width influenced the occurrence of individual species and to indicate which species had large and small ranges of distribution. Twenty-four species were common at elevations below 1,550 m and 31 species occurred in streams less than 20 m wide. The six exotic species had the potential to overlap all of the native species with regard to both elevation and stream width. In general, species that were collected over a wide range of elevations were also collected over a wide range of stream widths. Red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis) and river carpsucker (Carpiodes carpio) occurred over the smallest elevation ranges ( 2,500 m). Longnose sucker and white sucker (Catostomus commersoni) occurred over the greatest ranges in stream widths (> 90 m), and brook stickleback (Culaea inconstans), black bullhead (Ameiurus melas), and quillback (Carpiodes cyprinus) were found over the lowest ranges in stream widths (< 12 m). The distributions of native and exotic species in streams that transition from the Rocky Mountains to the Great Plains were largely explained by elevation and stream width.

Interacting effects of latitude, mass, age, and sex on winter survival of Surf Scoters (Melanitta perspicillata): Implications for differential migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uher-Koch, Brian D.; Esler, Daniel N.; Iverson, Samuel A.; Ward, David; Boyd, Sean; Kirk, Molly; Lewis, Tyler L.; VanStratt, Corey S.; Brodhead, Katherine M.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, Joel A.

2016-01-01

We quantified variation in winter survival of Surf Scoters (Melanitta perspicillata (L., 1758)) across nearly 30° of latitude on the Pacific coast of North America to evaluate potential effects on winter distributions, including observed differential distributions of age and sex classes. We monitored fates of 297 radio-marked Surf Scoters at three study sites: (1) near the northern periphery of their wintering range in southeast Alaska, USA, (2) the range core in British Columbia, Canada, and (3) the southern periphery in Baja California, Mexico. We detected 34 mortalities and determined that survival averaged lower at the range peripheries than in the range core, was lower during mid-winter than during late winter at all sites, and was positively correlated with body mass within locations. Although neither age nor sex class had direct effects, mass effects led to differential survival patterns among classes. When simultaneously incorporating these interacting influences, adult males of mean mass for their location had highest survival at the northern range periphery in Alaska, whereas adult females and juveniles had higher survival at the range core and the southern periphery. Our observations help to explain patterns of differential migration and distribution reported for this species and highlight seasonal periods (mid-winter) and locations (range peripheries) of elevated levels of mortality for demographically important age–sex classes (adult females).

Determining bathymetric distributions of the eelgrass Zostera ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Improved methods for determining bathymetric distributions of dominant intertidal plants throughout their estuarine range are needed. Zostera marina is a seagrass native to estuaries of the northeastern Pacific and many other sectors of the world ocean. The technique described here employed large format aerial photography using false color near-infrared film with digital image classification, and the production of digital bathymetric models of shallow estuaries such as those occurring in turbid waters of the Pacific Northwest USA. Application of geographic information system procedures to the eelgrass classifications and bathymetry distributions yielded digital bathymetric distributions based upon a very large number of observations. Similar bathymetric patterns were obtained for the three estuaries surveyed, and approximately 90% of the classified eelgrass occurred within the depth range -1.0 m to +1.0 m (MLLW). Comparison of these distributions with ground surveys of eelgrass lower depth limits indicated that the area of undetected subtidal eelgrass constituted 86% overall accuracy) in each estuary. The pattern of eelgrass in one estuary was distinctly different from those in the other two systems, illustrating the potential usefulness of this technique in exploring causative factors for such differences in estuarine intertidal vegetation distributions. Improved methods for determining bathymetric distributions of dominant intertidal plants throughout

The Empirical Distribution of Singletons for Geographic Samples of DNA Sequences.

PubMed

Cubry, Philippe; Vigouroux, Yves; François, Olivier

2017-01-01

Rare variants are important for drawing inference about past demographic events in a species history. A singleton is a rare variant for which genetic variation is carried by a unique chromosome in a sample. How singletons are distributed across geographic space provides a local measure of genetic diversity that can be measured at the individual level. Here, we define the empirical distribution of singletons in a sample of chromosomes as the proportion of the total number of singletons that each chromosome carries, and we present a theoretical background for studying this distribution. Next, we use computer simulations to evaluate the potential for the empirical distribution of singletons to provide a description of genetic diversity across geographic space. In a Bayesian framework, we show that the empirical distribution of singletons leads to accurate estimates of the geographic origin of range expansions. We apply the Bayesian approach to estimating the origin of the cultivated plant species Pennisetum glaucum [L.] R. Br . (pearl millet) in Africa, and find support for range expansion having started from Northern Mali. Overall, we report that the empirical distribution of singletons is a useful measure to analyze results of sequencing projects based on large scale sampling of individuals across geographic space.

Geothermal segmentation of the Cascade Range in the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guffanti, Marianne; Muffler, L.J.; Mariner, R.H.; Sherrod, D.R.; Smith, James G.; Blackwell, D.D.; Weaver, C.S.

1990-01-01

Characteristics of the crustal thermal regime of the Quaternary Cascades vary systematically along the range. Spatially congruent changes in volcanic vent distribution, volcanic extrusion rate, hydrothermal discharge rate, and regional conductive heat flow define 5 geothermal segments. These segments are, from north to south: (1) the Washington Cascades north of Mount Rainier, (2) the Cascades from Mount Rainier to Mount Hood, (3) the Oregon Cascades from south of Mount Hood to the California border, (4) northernmost California, including Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake volcano, and (5) the Lassen region of northern California. This segmentation indicates that geothermal resource potential is not uniform in the Cascade Range. Potential varies from high in parts of Oregon to low in Washington north of Mount Rainier.

Formal Process Modeling to Improve Human Decision-Making in Test and Evaluation Acoustic Range Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Test and...ambiguities and identify high -value decision points? This thesis explores how formalization of these experience-based decisions as a process model...representing a T&E event may reveal high -value decision nodes where certain decisions carry more weight or potential for impacts to a successful test. The

Electro-optic measurement of terahertz pulse energy distribution.

PubMed

Sun, J H; Gallacher, J G; Brussaard, G J H; Lemos, N; Issac, R; Huang, Z X; Dias, J M; Jaroszynski, D A

2009-11-01

An accurate and direct measurement of the energy distribution of a low repetition rate terahertz electromagnetic pulse is challenging because of the lack of sensitive detectors in this spectral range. In this paper, we show how the total energy and energy density distribution of a terahertz electromagnetic pulse can be determined by directly measuring the absolute electric field amplitude and beam energy density distribution using electro-optic detection. This method has potential use as a routine method of measuring the energy density of terahertz pulses that could be applied to evaluating future high power terahertz sources, terahertz imaging, and spatially and temporarily resolved pump-probe experiments.

Physiological Stress in Koala Populations near the Arid Edge of Their Distribution

PubMed Central

Davies, Nicole Ashley; Gramotnev, Galina; McAlpine, Clive; Seabrook, Leonie; Baxter, Greg; Lunney, Daniel; Rhodes, Jonathan R.; Bradley, Adrian

2013-01-01

Recent research has shown that the ecology of stress has hitherto been neglected, but it is in fact an important influence on the distribution and numbers of wild vertebrates. Environmental changes have the potential to cause physiological stress that can affect population dynamics. Detailed information on the influence of environmental variables on glucocorticoid levels (a measure of stress) at the trailing edge of a species’ distribution can highlight stressors that potentially threaten species and thereby help explain how environmental challenges, such as climate change, will affect the survival of these populations. Rainfall determines leaf moisture and/or nutritional content, which in turn impacts on cortisol concentrations. We show that higher faecal cortisol metabolite (FCM) levels in koala populations at the trailing arid edge of their range in southwestern Queensland are associated with lower rainfall levels (especially rainfall from the previous two months), indicating an increase in physiological stress when moisture levels are low. These results show that koalas at the semi-arid, inland edge of their geographic range, will fail to cope with increasing aridity from climate change. The results demonstrate the importance of integrating physiological assessments into ecological studies to identify stressors that have the potential to compromise the long-term survival of threatened species. This finding points to the need for research to link these stressors to demographic decline to ensure a more comprehensive understanding of species’ responses to climate change. PMID:24265749

Probablistic Analyses of Waste Package Quantities Impacted by Potential Igneous Disruption at Yucca Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, M. G.; Iuzzolina, H.

2005-12-01

A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate ranges for the numbers of waste packages that could be damaged in a potential future igneous event through a repository at Yucca Mountain. The analysis includes disruption from an intrusive igneous event and from an extrusive volcanic event. This analysis supports the evaluation of the potential consequences of future igneous activity as part of the total system performance assessment for the license application for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The first scenario, igneous intrusion, investigated the case where one or more igneous dikes intersect the repository. A swarm of dikes was characterized by distributions of length, width, azimuth, and number of dikes and the spacings between them. Through the use in part of a latin hypercube simulator and a modified video game engine, mathematical relationships were built between those parameters and the number of waste packages hit. Corresponding cumulative distribution function curves (CDFs) for the number of waste packages hit under several different scenarios were calculated. Variations in dike thickness ranges, as well as in repository magma bulkhead positions were examined through sensitivity studies. It was assumed that all waste packages in an emplacement drift would be impacted if that drift was intersected by a dike. Over 10,000 individual simulations were performed. Based on these calculations, out of a total of over 11,000 planned waste packages distributed over an area of approximately 5.5 km2 , the median number of waste packages impacted was roughly 1/10 of the total. Individual cases ranged from 0 waste packages to the entire inventory being impacted. The igneous intrusion analysis involved an explicit characterization of dike-drift intersections, built upon various distributions that reflect the uncertainties associated with the inputs. The second igneous scenario, volcanic eruption (eruptive conduits), considered the effects of conduits formed in association with a volcanic eruption through the repository. Mathematical relations were built between the resulting conduit areas and the fraction of the repository area occupied by waste packages. This relation was used in conjunction with a joint distribution incorporating variability in eruptive conduit diameters and in the number of eruptive conduits that could intersect the repository.

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

STEROLS AS BIOMARKERS IN GYMNODINIUM BREVE DISTRIBUTION IN DINOFLAGELLATES

EPA Science Inventory

The sterol composition of marine microalgae has been shown to be a chemotaxonomic property potentially of value in distinguishing members of different algal classes. For example, members of the class Dinophyceae display sterol compositions ranging from as few as two (cholesterol ...

Discharge current distribution in stratified soil under impulse discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eniola Fajingbesi, Fawwaz; Shahida Midi, Nur; Elsheikh, Elsheikh M. A.; Hajar Yusoff, Siti

2017-06-01

The mobility of charge particles traversing a material defines its electrical properties. Soil (earth) have long been the universal grounding before and after the inception of active ground systems for electrical appliance purpose due to it semi-conductive properties. The soil can thus be modelled as a single material exhibiting semi-complex inductive-reactive impedance. Under impulse discharge such as lightning strikes to soil this property of soil could result in electric potential level fluctuation ranging from ground potential rise/fall to electromagnetic pulse coupling that could ultimately fail connected electrical appliance. In this work we have experimentally model the soil and lightning discharge using point to plane electrode setup to observe the current distribution characteristics at different soil conductivity [mS/m] range. The result presented from this research indicate above 5% shift in conductivity before and after discharge which is significant for consideration when dealing with grounding designs. The current distribution in soil have also be successfully observed and analysed from experimental result using mean current magnitude in relation to electrode distance and location, current density variation with depth all showing strong correlation with theoretical assumptions of a semi-complex impedance material.

Climate Change and the Distribution of Neotropical Red-Bellied Toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to Prioritize Species and Populations?

PubMed Central

Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; Borges-Martins, Márcio

2014-01-01

We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term. PMID:24755937

How sensitive are temperate tadpoles to climate change? The use of thermal physiology and niche model tools to assess vulnerability.

PubMed

Perotti, María Gabriela; Bonino, Marcelo Fabián; Ferraro, Daiana; Cruz, Félix Benjamín

2018-04-01

Ectotherms are vulnerable to climate change, given their dependence on temperature, and amphibians are particularly interesting because of their complex life cycle. Tadpoles may regulate their body temperature by using suitable thermal microhabitats. Thus, their physiological responses are the result of adjustment to the local thermal limits experienced in their ponds. We studied three anuran tadpole species present in Argentina and Chile: Pleurodema thaul and Pleurodema bufoninum that are seasonal and have broad geographic ranges, and Batrachyla taeniata, a geographically restricted species with overwintering tadpoles. Species with restricted distribution are more susceptible to climate change than species with broader distribution that may cope with potential climatic changes in the environments in which they occur. We aim to test whether these species can buffer the potential effects of climate warming. We used ecological niche models and the outcomes of their thermal attributes (critical thermal limits, optimal temperature, and locomotor performance breadth) as empirical evidence of their capacity. We found that Pleurodema species show broader performance curves, related to their occurrence, while the geographically restricted B. taeniata shows a narrower thermal breadth, but is faster in warmer conditions. The modeled distributions and empirical physiological results suggest no severe threats for these three anurans. However, the risk level is increasing and a retraction of their distribution range might be possible for Pleurodema species, and some local population extinctions may happen, particularly for the narrowly distributed B. taeniata. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Shallow landsliding, root reinforcement, and the spatial distribution of trees in the Oregon Coast Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roering, J.J.; Schmidt, K.M.; Stock, J.D.; Dietrich, W.E.; Montgomery, D.R.

2003-01-01

The influence of root reinforcement on shallow landsliding has been well established through mechanistic and empirical studies, yet few studies have examined how local vegetative patterns influence slope stability. Because root networks spread outward from trees, the species, size, and spacing of trees should influence the spatial distribution of root strength. We documented the distribution and characteristics of trees adjacent to 32 shallow landslides that occurred during 1996 in the Oregon Coast Range. Although broadly classified as a conifer-dominated forest, we observed sparse coniferous and abundant hardwood trees near landslide scars in an industrial forest (Mapleton) that experienced widespread burning in the 19th century. In industrial forests that were burned, selectively harvested, and not replanted (Elliott State Forest), swordfern was ubiquitous near landslides, and we observed similar numbers of live conifer and hardwood trees proximal to landslide scarps. We demonstrate that root strength quantified in landslide scarps and soil pits correlates with a geometry-based index of root network contribution derived from mapping the size, species, condition, and spacing of local trees, indicating that root strength can be predicted by mapping the distribution and characteristics of trees on potentially unstable slopes. In our study sites, landslides tend to occur in areas of reduced root strength, suggesting that to make site-specific predictions of landslide occurrence slope stability analyses must account for the diversity and distribution of vegetation in potentially unstable terrain.

Noise and degradation of amorphous silicon devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, J. P. R.

2003-10-01

Electrical noise measurements are reported on two devices of the disordered semiconductor hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H). The material is applied in sandwich structures and in thin-film transistors (TFTs). In a sandwich configuration of an intrinsic layer and two thin doped layers, the observed 1/f resistance noise can be attributed to a distribution of energy levels in the system. Two candidates which eventually could explain the origin of the energy distribution are investigated: generation-recombination noise and long-range potential fluctuations. A simulation program was applied to fit the current-voltage characteristics and resolves the defect density, the energy position and width of the Gaussian distributions of deep defects. Generation-recombination (g-r) is calculated for a one-dimensional semiconductor device with traps, taking the transport of local fluctuations into account. Although the times characterizing capture and emission for deep defects are in the right (ms) range, the calculated noise intensity is five to six orders of magnitude below the measured noise level. Another noise source must cause the 1/f noise in a-Si:H. The alternative is provided by the theory of long-range potential fluctuations. The timescale of the fluctuations is again the capture or emission time for deep defects. When an electron is emitted or captured, the charge state of a deep defect fluctuates. As a result, the potential around that defect will fluctuate, being screened by the surrounding defects. Free electrons will instantaneously adjust to the local potential. The adjustment causes a resistance fluctuation, which is measured as a voltage fluctuation in presence of a constant current. The theory predicts the noise intensity accurately, without any adjustable parameters. Unlike the intensity, the spectral shape is fitted by adjustment of two parameters of the potential landscape. The complete temperature dependence of the noise spectra is consistently described by a Gaussian distribution of potential barriers, located 0.27 eV above the conduction band edge, with a halfwidth of 0.09 eV. A large number of experiments is explained by the theory of long-range potential fluctuations: the thickness dependence, the absence of an isotope effect and the analogous results for oppositely doped devices. From these experiments, it is concluded that a universal potential landscape exists in undoped a-Si:H. Further, the relation between degradation upon prolonged light-soaking and noise is studied. After degradation, the curvature of noise spectra is unaffected, while the intensity increases slightly. These observations are consistent with the theoretical predictions using the observed increase of the defect density. It seems that the potential landscape does not change significantly upon degradation. Noise measurements in the sub-threshold regime of a-Si:H TFTs turn out to yield diffusion noise. Diffusion of electrons through the one-dimensional channel is identified as the source of the noise. The drift mobility extracted from the combined noise and conduction data is below the value that characterizes the on-state. The number of free electrons as determined from combined noise and conduction measurements are in quantitative agreement with an alternative determination from conduction measurements only.

Amplification of a specific repetitive DNA sequence for Trypanosoma rangeli identification and its potential application in epidemiological investigations.

PubMed

Vargas, N; Souto, R P; Carranza, J C; Vallejo, G A; Zingales, B

2000-11-01

Trypanosoma rangeli can infect humans as well as the same domestic and wild animals and triatomine vectors infected by Trypanosoma cruzi in Central and South America. This overlapping distribution complicates the epidemiology of American trypanosomiasis due to the cross-reactivity between T. rangeli and T. cruzi antigens and the presence of conserved DNA sequences in these parasites. We have isolated a T. rangeli-specific DNA repetitive element which is represented in approximately 103 copies per parasite genome and is distributed in several chromosomal bands. The 542-bp nucleotide sequence of this element, named P542, was determined and a PCR assay was standardized for its amplification. The sensitivity of the assay is high, allowing the detection of one tenth of the DNA content of a single parasite. The presence of the P542 element was confirmed in 11 T. rangeli isolates from mammalian hosts and insect vectors originating from several countries in Latin America. Negative amplification was observed with different T. cruzi strains and other trypanosomatids. The potential field application of the P542 PCR assay was investigated in simulated samples containing T. rangeli and/or T. cruzi and intestinal tract and feces of Rhodnius prolixus. Epidemiological studies were conducted in DNA preparations obtained from the digestive tracts of 12 Rhodnius colombiensis insects collected in a sylvatic area in Colombia. Positive amplification of the P542 element was obtained in 9/12 insects. We have also compared in the same samples the diagnostic performance of two PCR assays for the amplification of the variable domain of minicircle kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) and of the large subunit (LSU) of the ribosomal RNA gene of T. cruzi and T. rangeli. Data indicate that the kDNA PCR assay does not allow diagnosis of mixed infections in most insects. On the other hand, the PCR assay of the LSU RNA gene showed lower sensitivity in the detection of T. rangeli than the PCR assay of the P542 element. It is predicted that the use of sensitive detection techniques will indicate that the actual distribution of T. rangeli in America is wider than presumed. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

A Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulation program for computing ion distributions around biomolecules in hard sphere solvents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

The GIBS software program is a Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation program (written in C++) that can be used for 1) computing the excess chemical potential of ions and the mean activity coefficients of salts in homogeneous electrolyte solutions; and, 2) for computing the distribution of ions around fixed macromolecules such as, nucleic acids and proteins. The solvent can be represented as neutral hard spheres or as a dielectric continuum. The ions are represented as charged hard spheres that can interact via Coulomb, hard-sphere, or Lennard-Jones potentials. In addition to hard-sphere repulsions, the ions can also be made tomore » interact with the solvent hard spheres via short-ranged attractive square-well potentials.« less

Historical range, current distribution, and conservation status of the Swift Fox, Vulpes velox, in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, Marsha A.; Woodward, Robert O.; Igl, Lawrence D.

2009-01-01

The Swift Fox (Vulpes velox) was once common in the shortgrass and mixed-grass prairies of the Great Plains of North America. The species' abundance declined and its distribution retracted following European settlement of the plains. By the late 1800s, the species had been largely extirpated from the northern portion of its historical range, and its populations were acutely depleted elsewhere. Swift Fox populations have naturally recovered somewhat since the 1950s, but overall abundance and distribution remain below historical levels. In a 1995 assessment of the species' status under the US Endangered Species Act, the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that a designation of threatened or endangered was warranted, but the species was "precluded from listing by higher listing priorities." A major revelation of the 1995 assessment was the recognition that information useful for determining population status was limited. Fundamental information was missing, including an accurate estimate of the species' distribution before European settlement and an estimate of the species' current distribution and trends. The objectives of this paper are to fill those gaps in knowledge. Historical records were compiled and, in combination with knowledge of the habitat requirements of the species, the historical range of the Swift Fox is estimated to be approximately 1.5 million km2. Using data collected between 2001 and 2006, the species' current distribution is estimated to be about 44% of its historical range in the United States and 3% in Canada. Under current land use, approximately 39% of the species' historical range contains grassland habitats with very good potential for Swift Fox occupation and another 10% supports grasslands with characteristics that are less preferred (e.g., a sparse shrub component or taller stature) but still suitable. Additionally, land use on at least 25% of the historical range supports dryland farming, which can be suitable for Swift Fox occupation. In the United States, approximately 52% of highest quality habitats currently available are occupied by Swift Foxes.

[Comparison of potential yield and resource utilization efficiency of main food crops in three provinces of Northeast China under climate change].

PubMed

Wang, Xiao-yu; Yang, Xiao-guang; Sun, Shuang; Xie, Wen-juan

2015-10-01

Based on the daily data of 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and the crop phenology data in the potential cultivation zones of thermophilic and chimonophilous crops in Northeast China, the crop potential yields were calculated through step-by-step correction method. The spatio-temporal distribution of the crop potential yields at different levels was analyzed. And then we quantified the limitations of temperature and precipitation on the crop potential yields and compared the differences in the climatic resource utilization efficiency. The results showed that the thermal potential yields of six crops (including maize, rice, spring wheat, sorghum, millet and soybean) during the period 1961-2010 deceased from west to east. The climatic potential yields of the five crops (spring wheat not included) were higher in the south than in the north. The potential yield loss rate due to temperature limitations of the six crops presented a spatial distribution pattern and was higher in the east than in the west. Among the six main crops, the yield potential loss rate due to temperature limitation of the soybean was the highest (51%), and those of the other crops fluctuated within the range of 33%-41%. The potential yield loss rate due to water limitation had an obvious regional difference, and was high in Songnen Plain and Changbai Mountains. The potential yield loss rate of spring wheat was the highest (50%), and those of the other four rainfed crops fluctuated within the range of 8%-10%. The solar energy utilization efficiency of the six main crops ranged from 0.9% to 2.7%, in the order of maize> sorghum>rice>millet>spring wheat>soybean. The precipitation utilization efficiency of the maize, sorghum, spring wheat, millet and soybean under rainfed conditions ranged from 8 to 35 kg . hm-2 . mm-1, in the order of maize>sorghum>spring wheat>millet>soybean. In those areas with lower efficiency of solar energy utilization and precipitation utilization, such as Changbai Mountains and the south of Lesser Khingan Mountains, measures could be taken to increase the efficiency of resource utilization such as rational close-planting, selection of droughtresistant varieties, proper and timely fertilization, farming for soil water storage, optimization of crop layout and so on.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.

PubMed

Kistner, Erica Jean

2017-12-08

The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål; Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has recently emerged as a harmful pest of horticultural crops in North America and Europe. Native to East Asia, this highly polyphagous insect is spreading rapidly worldwide. Climate change will add further complications to managing this species in terms of both geographic distribution and population growth. This study used CLIMEX to compare potential H. halys distribution under recent and future climate models using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H. Simulated changes in seasonal phenology and voltinism were examined. Under the possible future climate scenarios, suitable range in Europe expands northward. In North America, the suitable H. halys range shifts northward into Canada and contracts from its southern temperature range limits in the United States due to increased heat stress. Prolonged periods of warm temperatures resulted in longer H. halys growing seasons. However, future climate scenarios indicated that rising summer temperatures decrease H. halys growth potential compared to recent climatic conditions, which in turn, may reduce mid-summer crop damage. Climate change may increase the number of H. halys generations produced annually, thereby enabling the invasive insect to become multivoltine in the northern latitudes of North America and Europe where it is currently reported to be univoltine. These results indicate prime horticultural production areas in Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern Canada are at greatest risk from H. halys under both current and possible future climates. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Predicting potential distribution of poorly known species with small database: the case of four-horned antelope Tetracerus quadricornis on the Indian subcontinent.

PubMed

Pokharel, Krishna Prasad; Ludwig, Tobias; Storch, Ilse

2016-04-01

Information gaps on the distribution of data deficient and rare species such as four-horned antelope (FHA) in Nepal may impair their conservation. We aimed to empirically predict the distribution of FHA in Nepal with the help of data from the Indian subcontinent. Additionally, we wanted to identify core areas and gaps within the reported range limits and to assess the degree of isolation of known Nepalese populations from the main distribution areas in India. The tropical part of the Indian subcontinent (65°-90° eastern longitude, 5°-30° northern latitude), that is, the areas south of the Himalayan Mountains. Using MaxEnt and accounting for sampling bias, we developed predictive distribution models from environmental and topographical variables, and known presence locations of the study species in India and Nepal. We address and discuss the use of target group vs. random background. The prediction map reveals a disjunct distribution of FHA with core areas in the tropical parts of central to southern-western India. At the scale of the Indian subcontinent, suitable FHA habitat area in Nepal was small. The Indo-Gangetic Plain isolates Nepalese from the Indian FHA populations, but the distribution area extends further south than proposed by the current IUCN map. A low to intermediate temperature seasonality as well as low precipitation during the dry and warm season contributed most to the prediction of FHA distribution. The predicted distribution maps confirm other FHA range maps but also indicate that suitable areas exist south of the known range. Results further highlight that small populations in the Nepalese Terai Arc are isolated from the Indian core distribution and therefore might be under high extinction risk.

The Use of Climatic Niches in Screening Procedures for Introduced Species to Evaluate Risk of Spread: A Case with the American Eastern Grey Squirrel

PubMed Central

Di Febbraro, Mirko; Lurz, Peter W. W.; Genovesi, Piero; Maiorano, Luigi; Girardello, Marco; Bertolino, Sandro

2013-01-01

Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel’s niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species’ climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range. PMID:23843957

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

PubMed

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting species before they potentially colonize. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Beyond a Climate-Centric View of Plant Distribution: Edaphic Variables Add Value to Distribution Models

PubMed Central

Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change. PMID:24658097

Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

PubMed

Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change.

Distribution of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.; Gunther, K.; Moody, D.

2006-01-01

The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) proposed delisting the Yellowstone grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) in November 2005. Part of that process required knowledge of the most current distribution of the species. Here, we update an earlier estimate of occupied range (1990–2000) with data through 2004. We used kernel estimators to develop distribution maps of occupied habitats based on initial sightings of unduplicated females (n = 481) with cubs of the year, locations of radiomarked bears (n = 170), and spatially unique locations of conflicts, confrontations, and mortalities (n = 1,075). Although each data set was constrained by potential sampling bias, together they provided insight into areas in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) currently occupied by grizzly bears. The current distribution of 37,258 km2 (1990–2004) extends beyond the distribution map generated with data from 1990–2000 (34,416 km2 ). Range expansion is particularly evident in parts of the Caribou–Targhee National Forest in Idaho and north of Spanish Peaks on the Gallatin National Forest in Montana.

Electrostatic potential of B-DNA: effect of interionic correlations.

PubMed Central

Gavryushov, S; Zielenkiewicz, P

1998-01-01

Modified Poisson-Boltzmann (MPB) equations have been numerically solved to study ionic distributions and mean electrostatic potentials around a macromolecule of arbitrarily complex shape and charge distribution. Results for DNA are compared with those obtained by classical Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) calculations. The comparisons were made for 1:1 and 2:1 electrolytes at ionic strengths up to 1 M. It is found that ion-image charge interactions and interionic correlations, which are neglected by the PB equation, have relatively weak effects on the electrostatic potential at charged groups of the DNA. The PB equation predicts errors in the long-range electrostatic part of the free energy that are only approximately 1.5 kJ/mol per nucleotide even in the case of an asymmetrical electrolyte. In contrast, the spatial correlations between ions drastically affect the electrostatic potential at significant separations from the macromolecule leading to a clearly predicted effect of charge overneutralization. PMID:9826596

Increase in quantity and quality of suitable areas for invasive species as climate changes.

PubMed

Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Luque, Gloria M; Courchamp, Franck

2013-12-01

As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation.

PubMed

Ancillotto, L; Santini, L; Ranc, N; Maiorano, L; Russo, D

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle (Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Extraordinary range expansion in a common bat: the potential roles of climate change and urbanisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancillotto, L.; Santini, L.; Ranc, N.; Maiorano, L.; Russo, D.

2016-04-01

Urbanisation and climate change are two global change processes that affect animal distributions, posing critical threats to biodiversity. Due to its versatile ecology and synurbic habits, Kuhl's pipistrelle ( Pipistrellus kuhlii) offers a unique opportunity to explore the relative effects of climate change and urbanisation on species distributions. In a climate change scenario, this typically Mediterranean species is expected to expand its range in response to increasing temperatures. We collected 25,132 high-resolution occurrence records from P. kuhlii European range between 1980 and 2013 and modelled the species' distribution with a multi-temporal approach, using three bioclimatic variables and one proxy of urbanisation. Temperature in the coldest quarter of the year was the most important factor predicting the presence of P. kuhlii and showed an increasing trend in the study period; mean annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality were also relevant, but to a lower extent. Although urbanisation increased in recently colonised areas, it had little effect on the species' presence predictability. P. kuhlii expanded its geographical range by about 394 % in the last four decades, a process that can be interpreted as a response to climate change.

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

Forest cover and level of protection influence the island-wide distribution of an apex carnivore and umbrella species, the Sri Lankan leopard (Panthera pardus kotiya)

Treesearch

Andrew M. Kittle; Anjali C. Watson; Samuel A. Cushman; David. W. Macdonald

2017-01-01

Apex predators fulfil potentially vital ecological roles. Typically wide-ranging and charismatic, they can also be useful surrogates for biodiversity preservation, making their targeted conservation imperative. The Sri Lankan leopard (Panthera pardus kotiya), an endangered, endemic sub-species, is the island’s apex predator. Of potential keystone importance, this...

Benzotriazoles: History, Environmental Distribution, and Potential Ecological Effects

EPA Science Inventory

Benzotriazoles are a class of organic compound that have been used as metal anticorrosive and ultraviolet stabilizer additives in a wide range of commercial and industrial applications. These chemicals have been in commercial production and use since the late 1950s with many com...

Nuclear Potential Clustering As a New Tool to Detect Patterns in High Dimensional Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonkova, V.; Paulus, D.; Neeb, H.

2013-02-01

We present a new approach for the clustering of high dimensional data without prior assumptions about the structure of the underlying distribution. The proposed algorithm is based on a concept adapted from nuclear physics. To partition the data, we model the dynamic behaviour of nucleons interacting in an N-dimensional space. An adaptive nuclear potential, comprised of a short-range attractive (strong interaction) and a long-range repulsive term (Coulomb force) is assigned to each data point. By modelling the dynamics, nucleons that are densely distributed in space fuse to build nuclei (clusters) whereas single point clusters repel each other. The formation of clusters is completed when the system reaches the state of minimal potential energy. The data are then grouped according to the particles' final effective potential energy level. The performance of the algorithm is tested with several synthetic datasets showing that the proposed method can robustly identify clusters even when complex configurations are present. Furthermore, quantitative MRI data from 43 multiple sclerosis patients were analyzed, showing a reasonable splitting into subgroups according to the individual patients' disease grade. The good performance of the algorithm on such highly correlated non-spherical datasets, which are typical for MRI derived image features, shows that Nuclear Potential Clustering is a valuable tool for automated data analysis, not only in the MRI domain.

Predicting disease risk, identifying stakeholders, and informing control strategies: A case study of anthrax in Montana

PubMed Central

Morris, Lillian R.; Blackburn, Jason K.

2018-01-01

Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage, and can lead to large scale die offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs. PMID:27169560

Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana.

PubMed

Morris, Lillian R; Blackburn, Jason K

2016-06-01

Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage and can lead to large-scale die-offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high-risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi-species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs.

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge underscores the Schlaepfer et al. Future regeneration potential of big sagebrush potential futility of efforts to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggest a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.

PubMed

Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M

2017-06-01

Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate matching as a tool for predicting potential North American spread of Brown Treesnakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, Gordon H.; Reed, Robert N.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Witmer, G.W.; Pitt, W. C.; Fagerstone, K.A.

2007-01-01

Climate matching identifies extralimital destinations that could be colonized by a potential invasive species on the basis of similarity to climates found in the species’ native range. Climate is a proxy for the factors that determine whether a population will reproduce enough to offset mortality. Previous climate matching models (e.g., Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction [GARP]) for brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) were unsatisfactory, perhaps because the models failed to allow different combinations of climate attributes to influence a species’ range limits in different parts of the range. Therefore, we explored the climate space described by bivariate parameters of native range temperature and rainfall, allowing up to two months of aestivation in the warmer portions of the range, or four months of hibernation in temperate climes. We found colonization area to be minimally sensitive to assumptions regarding hibernation temperature thresholds. Although brown treesnakes appear to be limited by dry weather in the interior of Australia, aridity rarely limits potential distribution in most of the world. Potential colonization area in North America is limited primarily by cold. Climatically suitable portions of the United States (US) mainland include the Central Valley of California, mesic patches in the Southwest, and the southeastern coastal plain from Texas to Virginia.

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.

A Brief Review of the Need for Robust Smart Wireless Sensor Systems for Future Propulsion Systems, Distributed Engine Controls, and Propulsion Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Gary W.; Behbahani, Alireza

2012-01-01

Smart Sensor Systems with wireless capability operational in high temperature, harsh environments are a significant component in enabling future propulsion systems to meet a range of increasingly demanding requirements. These propulsion systems must incorporate technology that will monitor engine component conditions, analyze the incoming data, and modify operating parameters to optimize propulsion system operations. This paper discusses the motivation towards the development of high temperature, smart wireless sensor systems that include sensors, electronics, wireless communication, and power. The challenges associated with the use of traditional wired sensor systems will be reviewed and potential advantages of Smart Sensor Systems will be discussed. A brief review of potential applications for wireless smart sensor networks and their potential impact on propulsion system operation, with emphasis on Distributed Engine Control and Propulsion Health Management, will be given. A specific example related to the development of high temperature Smart Sensor Systems based on silicon carbide electronics will be discussed. It is concluded that the development of a range of robust smart wireless sensor systems are a foundation for future development of intelligent propulsion systems with enhanced capabilities.

Moving spray-plate center-pivot sprinkler rating index for assessing runoff potential

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Numerous moving spray-plate center-pivot sprinklers are commercially available providing a range of drop size distributions and wetted diameters. A means to quantitatively compare sprinkler choices in regards to maximizing infiltration and minimizing runoff is currently lacking. The objective of thi...

Biotic and abiotic factors predicting the global distribution and population density of an invasive large mammal

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jesse S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Burdett, Chris L.; Theobald, David M.; Gray, Miranda; Miller, Ryan S.

2017-01-01

Biotic and abiotic factors are increasingly acknowledged to synergistically shape broad-scale species distributions. However, the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting species distributions is unclear. In particular, biotic factors, such as predation and vegetation, including those resulting from anthropogenic land-use change, are underrepresented in species distribution modeling, but could improve model predictions. Using generalized linear models and model selection techniques, we used 129 estimates of population density of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from 5 continents to evaluate the relative importance, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting population density of an invasive large mammal with a global distribution. Incorporating diverse biotic factors, including agriculture, vegetation cover, and large carnivore richness, into species distribution modeling substantially improved model fit and predictions. Abiotic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were also important predictors. The predictive map of population density revealed wide-ranging potential for an invasive large mammal to expand its distribution globally. This information can be used to proactively create conservation/management plans to control future invasions. Our study demonstrates that the ongoing paradigm shift, which recognizes that both biotic and abiotic factors shape species distributions across broad scales, can be advanced by incorporating diverse biotic factors. PMID:28276519

Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.

PubMed

Wei, Jiufeng; Zhao, Qing; Zhao, Wanqing; Zhang, Hufang

2018-01-01

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

Fine tuning of magnetite nanoparticle size distribution using dissymmetric potential pulses in the presence of biocompatible surfactants and the electrochemical characterization of the nanoparticles.

PubMed

Rodríguez-López, A; Cruz-Rivera, J J; Elías-Alfaro, C G; Betancourt, I; Ruiz-Silva, H; Antaño-López, R

2015-01-01

The effects of varying the surfactant concentration and the anodic pulse potential on the properties and electrochemical behaviors of magnetite nanoparticles were investigated. The nanoparticles were synthesized with an electrochemical method based on applying dissymmetric potential pulses, which offers the advantage that can be used to tune the particle size distribution very precisely in the range of 10 to 50 nm. Under the conditions studied, the surfactant concentration directly affects the size distribution, with higher concentrations producing narrower distributions. Linear voltammetry was used to characterize the electrochemical behavior of the synthesized nanoparticles in both the anodic and cathodic regions, which are attributed to the oxidation of Fe(2+) and the reduction of Fe(3+); these species are part of the spinel structure of magnetite. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy data indicated that the reduction and oxidation reactions of the nanoparticles are not controlled by the mass transport step, but by the charge transfer step. The sample with the highest saturation magnetization was that synthesized in the presence of polyethylene glycol. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America.

PubMed

Carmona-Castro, O; Moo-Llanes, D A; Ramsey, J M

2018-03-01

Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and MaxEnt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model (ENM). There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for Neotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. North American triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges (Nearctic 2 and Nearctic/Neotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the Neotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Short- and medium-range structure of multicomponent bioactive glasses and melts: An assessment of the performances of shell-model and rigid-ion potentials.

PubMed

Tilocca, Antonio

2008-08-28

Classical and ab initio molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been carried out to investigate the effect of a different treatment of interatomic forces in modeling the structural properties of multicomponent glasses and melts. The simulated system is a soda-lime phosphosilicate composition with bioactive properties. Because the bioactivity of these materials depends on their medium-range structural features, such as the network connectivity and the Q(n) distribution (where Q(n) is a tetrahedral species bonded to n bridging oxygens) of silicon and phosphorus network formers, it is essential to assess whether, and up to what extent, classical potentials can reproduce these properties. The results indicate that the inclusion of the oxide ion polarization through a shell-model (SM) approach provides a more accurate representation of the medium-range structure compared to rigid-ion (RI) potentials. Insight into the causes of these improvements has been obtained by comparing the melt-and-quench transformation of a small sample of the same system, modeled using Car-Parrinello MD (CPMD), to the classical MD runs with SM and RI potentials. Both classical potentials show some limitations in reproducing the highly distorted structure of the melt denoted by the CPMD runs; however, the inclusion of polarization in the SM potential results in a better and qualitatively correct dynamical balance between the interconversion of Q(n) species during the cooling of the melt. This effect seems to reflect the slower decay of the fraction of structural defects during the cooling with the SM potential. Because these transient defects have a central role in mediating the Q(n) transformations, as previously proposed and confirmed by the current simulations, their presence in the melt is essential to produce an accurate final distribution of Q(n) species in the glass.

Mapping plant species ranges in the Hawaiian Islands: developing a methodology and associated GIS layers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Price, Jonathan P.; Jacobi, James D.; Gon, Samuel M.; Matsuwaki, Dwight; Mehrhoff, Loyal; Wagner, Warren; Lucas, Matthew; Rowe, Barbara

2012-01-01

This report documents a methodology for projecting the geographic ranges of plant species in the Hawaiian Islands. The methodology consists primarily of the creation of several geographic information system (GIS) data layers depicting attributes related to the geographic ranges of plant species. The most important spatial-data layer generated here is an objectively defined classification of climate as it pertains to the distribution of plant species. By examining previous zonal-vegetation classifications in light of spatially detailed climate data, broad zones of climate relevant to contemporary concepts of vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands can be explicitly defined. Other spatial-data layers presented here include the following: substrate age, as large areas of the island of Hawai'i, in particular, are covered by very young lava flows inimical to the growth of many plant species; biogeographic regions of the larger islands that are composites of multiple volcanoes, as many of their species are restricted to a given topographically isolated mountain or a specified group of them; and human impact, which can reduce the range of many species relative to where they formerly were found. Other factors influencing the geographic ranges of species that are discussed here but not developed further, owing to limitations in rendering them spatially, include topography, soils, and disturbance. A method is described for analyzing these layers in a GIS, in conjunction with a database of species distributions, to project the ranges of plant species, which include both the potential range prior to human disturbance and the projected present range. Examples of range maps for several species are given as case studies that demonstrate different spatial characteristics of range. Several potential applications of species-range maps are discussed, including facilitating field surveys, informing restoration efforts, studying range size and rarity, studying biodiversity, managing invasive species, and planning of conservation efforts.

Pan-European comparison of candidate distributions for climatological drought indices, SPI and SPEI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Van Loon, Anne; Stahl, Kerstin

2013-04-01

Drought indices are vital to objectively quantify and compare drought severity, duration, and extent across regions with varied climatic and hydrologic regimes. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a well-reviewed meterological drought index recommended by the WMO, and its more recent water balance variant, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) both rely on selection of univariate probability distributions to normalize the index, allowing for comparisons across climates. The SPI, considered a universal meteorological drought index, measures anomalies in precipitation, whereas the SPEI measures anomalies in climatic water balance (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration), a more comprehensive measure of water availability that incorporates temperature. Many reviewers recommend use of the gamma (Pearson Type III) distribution for SPI normalization, while developers of the SPEI recommend use of the three parameter log-logistic distribution, based on point observation validation. Before the SPEI can be implemented at the pan-European scale, it is necessary to further validate the index using a range of candidate distributions to determine sensitivity to distribution selection, identify recommended distributions, and highlight those instances where a given distribution may not be valid. This study rigorously compares a suite of candidate probability distributions using WATCH Forcing Data, a global, historical (1958-2001) climate dataset based on ERA40 reanalysis with 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution and bias-correction based on CRU-TS2.1 observations. Using maximum likelihood estimation, alternative candidate distributions are fit for the SPI and SPEI across the range of European climate zones. When evaluated at this scale, the gamma distribution for the SPI results in negatively skewed values, exaggerating the index severity of extreme dry conditions, while decreasing the index severity of extreme high precipitation. This bias is particularly notable for shorter aggregation periods (1-6 months) during the summer months in southern Europe (below 45° latitude), and can partially be attributed to distribution fitting difficulties in semi-arid regions where monthly precipitation totals cluster near zero. By contrast, the SPEI has potential for avoiding this fitting difficulty because it is not bounded by zero. However, the recommended log-logistic distribution produces index values with less variation than the standard normal distribution. Among the alternative candidate distributions, the best fit distribution and the distribution parameters vary in space and time, suggesting regional commonalities within hydroclimatic regimes, as discussed further in the presentation.

Why inputs matter: Selection of climatic variables for species distribution modelling in the Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrowski, Maria; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to provide first time analysis of the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region using species distribution modelling. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate conditions. Furthermore we evaluate the prediction ability of climate data derived from different statistical methods. GLMs were created using least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from two different climate models: 1) interpolated climate data (i.e. Worldclim, Hijmans et al., 2005) and 2) quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling (i.e. Chelsa; Karger et al., 2016). Model accuracy was evaluated by the ability to predict the potential species distribution range. We found that models based on variables of Chelsa climate data had higher predictive power, whereas models using Worldclim climate data consistently overpredicted the potential suitable habitat for Betula utilis. Although climatic variables of Worldclim are widely used in modelling species distribution, our results suggest to treat them with caution when remote regions like the Himalayan mountains are in focus. Unmindful usage of climatic variables for species distribution models potentially cause misleading projections and may lead to wrong implications and recommendations for nature conservation. References: Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N., Linder, H.P. & Kessler, M. (2016) Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface areas. arXiv:1607.00217 [physics].

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

PubMed

Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

[Potential distribution and geographic characteristics of wild populations of Vanilla planifolia (Orchidaceae) Oaxaca, Mexico].

PubMed

Hernandez-Ruiz, Jesús; Herrera-Cabrera, B Edgar; Delgado-Alvarado, Adriana; Salazar-Rojas, Víctor M; Bustamante-Gonzalez, Ángel; Campos-Contreras, Jorge E; Ramírez-Juarez, Javier

2016-03-01

Wild specimens of Vanilla planifolia represent a vital part of this resource primary gene pool, and some plants have only been reported in Oaxaca, Mexico. For this reason, we studied its geographical distribution within the state, to locate and describe the ecological characteristics of the areas where they have been found, in order to identify potential areas of establishment. The method comprised four stages: 1) the creation of a database with herbarium records, 2) the construction of the potential distribution based on historical herbarium records for the species, using the model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and 22 bioclimatic variables as predictors; 3) an in situ systematic search of individuals, based on herbarium records and areas of potential distribution in 24 municipalities, to determine the habitat current situation and distribution; 4) the description of the environmental factors of potential ecological niches generated by MaxEnt. A review of herbarium collections revealed a total of 18 records of V. planifolia between 1939 and 1998. The systematic search located 28 plants distributed in 12 sites in 95 364 Km(2). The most important variables that determined the model of vanilla potential distribution were: precipitation in the rainy season (61.9 %), soil moisture regime (23.4 %) and precipitation during the four months of highest rainfall (8.1 %). The species potential habitat was found to be distributed in four zones: wet tropics of the Gulf of Mexico, humid temperate, humid tropical, and humid temperate in the Pacific. Precipitation oscillated within the annual ranges of 2 500 to 4 000 mm, with summer rains, and winter precipitation as 5 to 10 % of the total. The moisture regime and predominating climate were udic type I (330 to 365 days of moisture) and hot humid (Am/A(C) m). The plants were located at altitudes of 200 to 1 190 masl, on rough hillsides that generally make up the foothills of mountain systems, with altitudes of 1 300 to 2 500 masl. In natural conditions, distribution of the species is not limited to high evergreen forests, since it was also found in mountain mesophyll and tropical evergreen forests. The location of new specimens of V. planifolia in its wild condition reduces the potential distribution area by 66 %. This area is fragmented into three geographically separated areas. Habitat reduction was due to the increased number of located plants that define the environmental conditions into a more accurate level. Conservation actions can thus be designed and implemented, focusing on more specific areas within the state of Oaxaca, Mexico.

Distribution and mobility of arsenic in soils of a mining area (Western Spain).

PubMed

García-Sánchez, A; Alonso-Rojo, P; Santos-Francés, F

2010-09-01

High levels of total and bioavailable As in soils in mining areas may lead to the potential contamination of surface water and groundwater, being toxic to human, plants, and animals. The soils in the studied area (Province of Salamanca, Spain) recorded a total As concentration that varied from 5.5mg/kg to 150mg/kg, and water-soluble As ranged from 0.004mg/kg to 0.107mg/kg, often exceeding the guideline limits for agricultural soil (50mg/kg total As, 0.04mg/kg water-soluble As). The range of As concentration in pond water was <0.001microg/l-60microg/l, with 40% of samples exceeding the maximum permissible level (10microg/l) for drinking water. Estimated bioavailable As in soil varied from 0.045mg/kg to 0.760mg/kg, around six times higher than water-soluble As fraction, which may pose a high potential risk in regard to its entry into food chain. Soil column leaching tests show an As potential mobility constant threatening water contamination by continuous leaching. The vertical distribution of As through soil profiles suggests a deposition mechanism of this element on the top-soils that involves the wind or water transport of mine tailings. A similar vertical distribution of As and organic matter (OM) contents in soil profiles, as well as, significant correlations between As concentrations and OM and N contents, suggests that type and content of soil OM are major factors for determining the content, distribution, and mobilization of As in the soil. Due to the low supergenic mobility of this element in mining environments, the soil pollution degree in the studied area is moderate, in spite of the elevated As contents in mine tailings. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observations of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Processes in Jupiter's Downward Auroral Current Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, G. B.; Mauk, B.; Allegrini, F.; Bagenal, F.; Bolton, S. J.; Bunce, E. J.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Ebert, R. W.; Gershman, D. J.; Gladstone, R.; Haggerty, D. K.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Kotsiaros, S.; Kollmann, P.; Kurth, W. S.; Levin, S.; McComas, D. J.; Paranicas, C.; Rymer, A. M.; Saur, J.; Szalay, J. R.; Tetrick, S.; Valek, P. W.

2017-12-01

Our view and understanding of Jupiter's auroral regions are ever-changing as Juno continues to map out this region with every auroral pass. For example, since last year's Fall AGU and the release of publications regarding the first perijove orbit, the Juno particles and fields teams have found direct evidence of parallel potential drops in addition to the stochastic broad energy distributions associated with the downward current auroral acceleration region. In this region, which appears to exist in an altitude range of 1.5-3 Jovian radii, the potential drops can reach as high as several megavolts. Associated with these potentials are anti-planetward electron angle beams, energetic ion conics and precipitating protons, oxygen and sulfur. Sometimes the potentials within the downward current region are structured such that they look like the inverted-V type distributions typically found in Earth's upward current region. This is true for both the ion and electron energy distributions. Other times, the parallel potentials appear to be intermittent or spatially structured in a way such that they do not look like the canonical diverging electrostatic potential structure. Furthermore, the parallel potentials vary grossly in spatial/temporal scale, peak voltage and associated parallel current density. Here, we present a comprehensive study of these structures in Jupiter's downward current region focusing on energetic particle measurements from Juno-JEDI.

Quantification of Methane Gas Flux and Bubble Fate on the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Utilizing Calibrated Split-beam Echosounder Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weidner, E. F.; Mayer, L. A.; Weber, T. C.; Jerram, K.; Jakobsson, M.; Chernykh, D.; Ananiev, R.; Mohammad, R.; Semiletov, I. P.

2016-12-01

On the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) subsea permafrost, shallow gas hydrates, and trapped free gas hold an estimated 1400 Gt of methane. Recent observations of methane bubble plumes and high concentrations of dissolved methane in the water column indicate methane release via ebullition. Methane gas released from the shallow ESAS (<50 m average depth) has high potential to be transported to the atmosphere. To directly and quantitatively address the magnitude of methane flux and the fate of rising bubbles in the ESAS, methane seeps were mapped with a broadband split-beam echosounder as part of the Swedish-Russian-US Arctic Ocean Investigation of Climate-Cryosphere-Carbon Interactions program (SWERUS-C3). Acoustic measurements were made over a broad range of frequencies (16 to 29 kHz). The broad bandwidth provided excellent discrimination of individual targets in the water column, allowing for the identification of single bubbles. Absolute bubble target strength values were determined by compensating apparent target strength measurements for beam pattern effects via standard calibration techniques. The bubble size distribution of seeps with individual bubble signatures was determined by exploiting bubble target strength models over the broad range of frequencies. For denser seeps, with potential higher methane flux, bubble size distribution was determined via extrapolation from seeps in similar geomorphological settings. By coupling bubble size distributions with rise velocity measurements, which are made possible by split-beam target tracking, methane gas flux can be estimated. Of the 56 identified seeps in the SWERUS data set, individual bubbles scatterers were identified in more than half (31) of the seeps. Preliminary bubble size distribution results indicate bubble radii range from 0.75 to 3.0 mm, with relatively constant bubble size distribution throughout the water column. Initial rise velocity observations indicate bubble rise velocity increases with decreasing depth, seemingly independent of bubble radius.

Tree demography suggests multiple directions and drivers for species range shifts in mountains of Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Wason, Jay W; Dovciak, Martin

2017-08-01

Climate change is expected to lead to upslope shifts in tree species distributions, but the evidence is mixed partly due to land-use effects and individualistic species responses to climate. We examined how individual tree species demography varies along elevational climatic gradients across four states in the northeastern United States to determine whether species elevational distributions and their potential upslope (or downslope) shifts were controlled by climate, land-use legacies (past logging), or soils. We characterized tree demography, microclimate, land-use legacies, and soils at 83 sites stratified by elevation (~500 to ~1200 m above sea level) across 12 mountains containing the transition from northern hardwood to spruce-fir forests. We modeled elevational distributions of tree species saplings and adults using logistic regression to test whether sapling distributions suggest ongoing species range expansion upslope (or contraction downslope) relative to adults, and we used linear mixed models to determine the extent to which climate, land use, and soil variables explain these distributions. Tree demography varied with elevation by species, suggesting a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for red spruce (more so in cool regions) and sugar maple, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. While soils had relatively minor effects, climate was the dominant predictor for most species and more so for saplings than adults of red spruce, sugar maple, yellow birch, cordate birch, and striped maple. On the other hand, logging legacies were positively associated with American beech, sugar maple, and yellow birch, and negatively with red spruce and balsam fir - generally more so for adults than saplings. All species exhibited individualistic rather than synchronous demographic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species indicates that land use may mask species range shifts caused by changing climate. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling and mapping the probability of occurrence of invasive wild pigs across the contiguous United States.

PubMed

McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Lutman, Mark W; Theobald, David M; Riggs, Philip D; Grear, Daniel A; Miller, Ryan S

2015-01-01

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa), also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs' historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs' ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs' current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.

[Potential distribution of Panax ginseng and its predicted responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhao, Ze Fang; Wei, Hai Yan; Guo, Yan Long; Gu, Wei

2016-11-18

This study utilized Panax ginseng as the research object. Based on BioMod2 platform, with species presence data and 22 climatic variables, the potential geographic distribution of P. ginseng under the current conditions in northeast China was simulated with ten species distribution model. And then with the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) as weights, we build an ensemble model, which integrated the results of 10 models, using the ensemble model, the future distributions of P. ginseng were also projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that for the entire region of study area, under the present climatic conditions, 10.4% of the areas were identified as suitable habitats, which were mainly located in northeast Changbai Mountains area and the southeastern region of the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. The model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats would have a relatively significant change under the different climate change scenarios, and generally the range of suitable habitats would be a certain degree of decrease. Meanwhile, the goodness-of-fit, predicted ranges, and weights of explanatory variables was various for each model. And according to the goodness-of-fit, Maxent had the highest model performance, and GAM, RF and ANN were followed, while SRE had the lowest prediction accuracy. In this study we established an ensemble model, which could improve the accuracy of the existing species distribution models, and optimization of species distribution prediction results.

Distribution and habitat use of red panda in the Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape of Nepal

PubMed Central

Sherpa, Peema; Thapa, Gokarna Jung; Kokh, Manish; Lama, Sonam Tashi; Khanal, Kapil; Thapa, Arjun; Jnawali, Shant Raj

2017-01-01

In Nepal, the red panda (Ailurus fulgens) has been sparsely studied, although its range covers a wide area. The present study was carried out in the previously untapped Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in central Nepal with an aim to explore current distributional status and identify key habitat use. Extensive field surveys conducted in 10 red panda range districts were used to estimate species distribution by presence-absence occupancy modeling and to predict distribution by presence-only modeling. The presence of red pandas was recorded in five districts: Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Myagdi, Baglung and Dhading. The predictive distribution model indicated that 1,904.44 km2 of potential red panda habitat is available in CHAL with the protected area covering nearly 41% of the total habitat. The habitat suitability analysis based on the probability of occurrence showed only 16.58% (A = 315.81 km2) of the total potential habitat is highly suitable. Red Panda occupancy was estimated to be around 0.0667, indicating nearly 7% (218 km2) of the total habitat is occupied with an average detection probability of 0.4482±0.377. Based on the habitat use analysis, altogether eight variables including elevation, slope, aspect, proximity to water sources, bamboo abundance, height, cover, and seasonal precipitation were observed to have significant roles in the distribution of red pandas. In addition, 25 tree species were documented from red panda sign plots out of 165 species recorded in the survey area. Most common was Betula utilis followed by Rhododendron spp. and Abies spectabilis. The extirpation of red pandas in previously reported areas indicates a need for immediate action for the long-term conservation of this species in CHAL. PMID:29020020

Distribution and habitat use of red panda in the Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape of Nepal.

PubMed

Bista, Damber; Shrestha, Saroj; Sherpa, Peema; Thapa, Gokarna Jung; Kokh, Manish; Lama, Sonam Tashi; Khanal, Kapil; Thapa, Arjun; Jnawali, Shant Raj

2017-01-01

In Nepal, the red panda (Ailurus fulgens) has been sparsely studied, although its range covers a wide area. The present study was carried out in the previously untapped Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in central Nepal with an aim to explore current distributional status and identify key habitat use. Extensive field surveys conducted in 10 red panda range districts were used to estimate species distribution by presence-absence occupancy modeling and to predict distribution by presence-only modeling. The presence of red pandas was recorded in five districts: Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Myagdi, Baglung and Dhading. The predictive distribution model indicated that 1,904.44 km2 of potential red panda habitat is available in CHAL with the protected area covering nearly 41% of the total habitat. The habitat suitability analysis based on the probability of occurrence showed only 16.58% (A = 315.81 km2) of the total potential habitat is highly suitable. Red Panda occupancy was estimated to be around 0.0667, indicating nearly 7% (218 km2) of the total habitat is occupied with an average detection probability of 0.4482±0.377. Based on the habitat use analysis, altogether eight variables including elevation, slope, aspect, proximity to water sources, bamboo abundance, height, cover, and seasonal precipitation were observed to have significant roles in the distribution of red pandas. In addition, 25 tree species were documented from red panda sign plots out of 165 species recorded in the survey area. Most common was Betula utilis followed by Rhododendron spp. and Abies spectabilis. The extirpation of red pandas in previously reported areas indicates a need for immediate action for the long-term conservation of this species in CHAL.

Habitat interaction between two species of chipmunk in the Basin and Range Province of Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrey, Christopher; Longshore, Kathleen M.

2013-01-01

Interspecies interactions can affect how species are distributed, put constraints on habitat expansion, and reduce the fundamental niche of the affected species. Using logistic regression, we analyzed and compared 174 Tamias palmeri and 94 Tamias panamintinus within an isolated mountain range of the Basin and Range Province of southern Nevada. Tamias panamintinus was more likely to use pinyon/ponderosa/fir mixed forests than pinyon alone, compared to random sites. In the presence of T palmeri, however, interaction analyses indicated T. panamintinus was less likely to occupy the mixed forests and more likely near large rocks on southern aspects. This specie s-by-habitat interaction data suggest that T. palmeri excludes T panamintinus from areas of potentially suitable habitat. Climate change may adversely affect species of restricted distribution. Habitat isolation and species interactions in this region may thus increase survival risks as climate temperatures rise.

Habitat Suitability Model for the Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota

PubMed Central

Johnson, T. L.; Bjork, J. K. H.; Neitzel, D. F.; Dorr, F. M.; Schiffman, E. K.; Eisen, R. J.

2016-01-01

Ixodes scapularis Say, the black-legged tick, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of several pathogens causing human diseases including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Over the past two decades, I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence as well as geographic distribution. Lyme disease exists in two major foci in the United States, one encompassing northeastern states and the other in the Upper Midwest. Minnesota represents a state with an appreciable increase in counties reporting I. scapularis-borne illnesses, suggesting geographic expansion of vector populations in recent years. Recent tick distribution records support this assumption. Here, we used those records to create a fine resolution, subcounty-level distribution model for I. scapularis using variable response curves in addition to tests of variable importance. The model identified 19% of Minnesota as potentially suitable for establishment of the tick and indicated with high accuracy (AUC = 0.863) that the distribution is driven by land cover type, summer precipitation, maximum summer temperatures, and annual temperature variation. We provide updated records of established populations near the northwestern species range limit and present a model that increases our understanding of the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota. PMID:27026161

Potential Polyunsaturated Aldehydes in the Strait of Gibraltar under Two Tidal Regimes

PubMed Central

Morillo-García, Soledad; Valcárcel-Pérez, Nerea; Cózar, Andrés; Ortega, María J.; Macías, Diego; Ramírez-Romero, Eduardo; García, Carlos M.; Echevarría, Fidel; Bartual, Ana

2014-01-01

Diatoms, a major component of the large-sized phytoplankton, are able to produce and release polyunsaturated aldehydes after cell disruption (potential PUAs or pPUA). These organisms are dominant in the large phytoplankton fraction (>10 µm) in the Strait of Gibraltar, the only connection between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. In this area, the hydrodynamics exerts a strong control on the composition and physiological state of the phytoplankton. This environment offers a great opportunity to analyze and compare the little known distribution of larger sized PUA producers in nature and, moreover, to study how environmental variables could affect the ranges and potential distribution of these compounds. Our results showed that, at both tidal regimes studied (Spring and Neap tides), diatoms in the Strait of Gibraltar are able to produce three aldehydes: Heptadienal, Octadienal and Decadienal, with a significant dominance of Decadienal production. The PUA released by mechanical cell disruption of large-sized collected cells (pPUA) ranged from 0.01 to 12.3 pmol from cells in 1 L, and from 0.1 to 9.8 fmol cell−1. Tidal regime affected the abundance, distribution and the level of physiological stress of diatoms in the Strait. During Spring tides, diatoms were more abundant, usually grouped nearer the coastal basin and showed less physiological stress than during Neap tides. Our results suggest a significant general increase in the pPUA productivity with increasing physiological stress for the cell also significantly associated to low nitrate availability. PMID:24633248

Interacting steps with finite-range interactions: Analytical approximation and numerical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaramillo, Diego Felipe; Téllez, Gabriel; González, Diego Luis; Einstein, T. L.

2013-05-01

We calculate an analytical expression for the terrace-width distribution P(s) for an interacting step system with nearest- and next-nearest-neighbor interactions. Our model is derived by mapping the step system onto a statistically equivalent one-dimensional system of classical particles. The validity of the model is tested with several numerical simulations and experimental results. We explore the effect of the range of interactions q on the functional form of the terrace-width distribution and pair correlation functions. For physically plausible interactions, we find modest changes when next-nearest neighbor interactions are included and generally negligible changes when more distant interactions are allowed. We discuss methods for extracting from simulated experimental data the characteristic scale-setting terms in assumed potential forms.

Short-Time Glassy Dynamics in Viscous Protein Solutions with Competing Interactions

DOE PAGES

Godfrin, P. Douglas; Hudson, Steven; Hong, Kunlun; ...

2015-11-24

Although there have been numerous investigations of the glass transition for colloidal dispersions with only a short-ranged attraction, less is understood for systems interacting with a long-ranged repulsion in addition to this attraction, which is ubiquitous in aqueous protein solutions at low ionic strength. Highly puri ed concentrated lysozyme solutions are used as a model system and investigated over a large range of protein concentrations at very low ionic strength. Newtonian liquid behavior is observed at all concentrations, even up to 480 mg/mL, where the zero shear viscosity increases by more than three orders of magnitude with increasing concentration. Remarkably,more » despite this macroscopic liquid-like behavior, the measurements of the dynamics in the short-time limit shows features typical of glassy colloidal systems. Investigation of the inter-protein structure indicates that the reduced short-time mobility of the protein is caused by localized regions of high density within a heterogeneous density distribution. This structural heterogeneity occurs on intermediate range length scale, driven by the competing potential features, and is distinct from commonly studied colloidal gel systems in which a heterogeneous density distribution tends to extend to the whole system. The presence of long-ranged repulsion also allows for more mobility over large length and long time scales resulting in the macroscopic relaxation of the structure. The experimental results provide evidence for the need to explicitly include intermediate range order in theories for the macroscopic properties of protein solutions interacting via competing potential features.« less

[Distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in water and sediment from Zhoushan coastal area, China].

PubMed

Jiang, Min; Tuan, Le Huy; Mei, Wei-Ping; Ruan, Hui-Hui; Wu, Hao

2014-07-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) has been investigated in water and sediments of Zhoushan coastal area every two months in 2012. The concentrations of total PAHs ranged from 382.3 to 816.9 ng x L(-1), with the mean value of 552.5 ng x L(-1) in water; whereas it ranged from 1017.9 to 3047.1 ng x g(-1), with the mean value of 2 022.4 ng x g(-1) in sediment. Spatial distribution showed that Yangshan and Yanwoshan offshore area had the maximum and minimum of total PAHs contents in water, while the maximum and minimum occurred at Yangshan and Zhujiajian Nansha offshore area in sediment. Temporal distribution revealed that total PAHs contents in water reached the maximum and minimum values in October and June, however in sediments these values were found in August and June, respectively. The PAHs pollution was affected by oil emission, charcoal and coal combustion. Using the biological threshold and exceeded coefficient method to assess the ecological risk of PAHs in Zhoushan coastal area, the result showed that sigma PAHs had a lower probability of potential risk, while there was a higher probability of potential risk for acenaphthylene monomer, and there might be ecological risk for acenaphthene and fluorene. Distribution of PAHs between sediment and water showed that Zhoushan coastal sediment enriched a lot of PAHs, meanwhile the enrichment coefficient (K(d) value) of sediment in Daishan island was larger than that in Zhoushan main island.

Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population.

PubMed

Alimi, Temitope O; Fuller, Douglas O; Qualls, Whitney A; Herrera, Socrates V; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quinones, Martha L; Lacerda, Marcus V G; Beier, John C

2015-08-20

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts. Employing presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent. Results from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km(2) of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km(2) by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution. As the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination.

DOES THE AUTECOLOGY OF THE MANGROVE RIVULUS FISH (RIVULUS MARMORATUS) REFLECT A PARADIGM FOR MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM SENSITIVITY?

EPA Science Inventory

The killifish Rivulus marmoratus, mangrove rivulus, represents the one of the two potentially truly "mangrove dependent" fish species in western Atlantic mangrove ecosystems. he distribution of this species closely parallels the range of red mangroves. hese plants and fish exhibi...

Mechanisms of Termite Spread in Wisconsin and Potential Consequences as a Result of Changing Climate Trends

Treesearch

R. A. Arango; F. III Green; G.R. Esenther; D.A. Marschalek; M.E. Berres; K.F. Raffa

2014-01-01

Mature colonies of Reticulitermes spp. reproduce and spread mainly by secondary (rather than alate) reproductives throughout their geographical distribution, but especially near the northern boundaries of their range. Historically in Wisconsin, winged reproductives of the one established species, Reticulitermes flavipes (Kollar),...

Coupling fine-scale root and canopy structure using ground-based remote sensing

Treesearch

Brady Hardiman; Christopher Gough; John Butnor; Gil Bohrer; Matteo Detto; Peter Curtis

2017-01-01

Ecosystem physical structure, defined by the quantity and spatial distribution of biomass, influences a range of ecosystem functions. Remote sensing tools permit the non-destructive characterization of canopy and root features, potentially providing opportunities to link above- and belowground structure at fine spatial resolution in...

The Distributional Ecology of the Maned Sloth: Environmental Influences on Its Distribution and Gaps in Knowledge

PubMed Central

Coutinho, Bruno Rocha; Zanon, Mariana Santos; Mendes, Sérgio Lucena

2014-01-01

The maned sloth Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa, Bradypodidae) is endemic to a small area in the Atlantic Forest of coastal Brazil. It has been listed as a threatened species because of its restricted geographic range, habitat loss and fragmentation, and declining populations. The major objectives of this study were to estimate its potential geographic distribution, the climatic conditions across its distributional range, and to identify suitable areas and potential species strongholds. We developed a model of habitat suitability for the maned sloth using two methods, Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance, based on 42 occurrence points. We evaluated environmental variable importance and the predictive ability of the generated distribution models. Our results suggest that the species distribution could be strongly influenced by environmental factors, mainly temperature seasonality. The modeled distribution of the maned sloth included known areas of occurrence in the Atlantic Forest (Sergipe, Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro), but did not match the observed distributional gaps in northern Rio de Janeiro, northern Espírito Santo or southern Bahia. Rather, the model showed that these areas are climatically suitable for the maned sloth, and thus suggests that factors other than climate might be responsible for the absence of species. Suitable areas for maned sloth were located mainly in the mountainous region of central Rio de Janeiro throughout Espírito Santo and to the coastal region of southern Bahia. We indicate 17 stronghold areas and recommended survey areas for the maned sloth. In addition, we highlight specific areas for conservation, including the current network protected areas. Our results can be applied for novel surveys and discovery of unknown populations, and help the selection of priority areas for management and conservation planning, especially of rare and relatively cryptic species directed associated with forested habitats. PMID:25338139

A New Tool for Exploring Climate Change Induced Range Shifts of Conifer Species in China

PubMed Central

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management. PMID:25268604

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

PubMed

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

Niche shifts and the potential distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wanqing; Zhao, Qing

2017-01-01

The cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a serious invasive species that significantly damages plants of approximately 60 families around the world. It is originally from North America and has also been introduced to other continents. Our goals were to create a current and future potential global distribution map for this pest under climate change with MaxEnt software. We tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for P. solenopsis by comparing its native niche in North America to its invasive niches on other continents using Principal components analyses (PCA) in R. The potentially suitable habitat for P. solenopsis in its native and non-native ranges is presented in the present paper. The results suggested that the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important environmental variables determining the potential distribution of P. solenopsis. We found strong evidence for niche shifts in the realized climatic niche of this pest in South America and Australia due to niche unfilling; however, a niche shift in the realized climatic niche of this pest in Eurasian owing to niche expansion. PMID:28700721

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-08-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDDs) in surface soils from coastal cities in North China: Correlation between diastereoisomer profiles and industrial activities.

PubMed

Zhang, Yueqing; Li, Qifeng; Lu, Yonglong; Jones, Kevin; Sweetman, Andrew J

2016-04-01

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) is a brominated flame retardant with a wide range of industrial applications, although little is known about its patterns of spatial distribution in soils in relation to industrial emissions. This study has undertaken a large-scale investigation around an industrialized coastal area of China, exploring the concentrations, spatial distribution and diastereoisomer profiles of HBCDD in 188 surface soils from 21 coastal cities in North China. The detection frequency was 100% and concentrations of total HBCDD in the surface soils ranged from 0.123 to 363 ng g(-1) and averaged 7.20 ng g(-1), showing its ubiquitous existence at low levels. The spatial distribution of HBCDD exhibited a correlation with the location of known manufacturing facilities in Weifang, suggesting the production of HBCDD as major emission source. Diastereoisomer profiles varied in different cities. Diastereoisomer compositions in soils were compared with emissions from HBCDD industrial activities, and correlations were found between them, which has the potential for source identification. Although the contemporary concentrations of HBCDD in soils from the study were relatively low, HBCDD-containing products (expanded/extruded polystyrene insulation boards) would be a potential source after its service life, and attention needs to be paid to prioritizing large-scale waste management efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature dependency of state of charge inhomogeneities and their equalization in cylindrical lithium-ion cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osswald, P. J.; Erhard, S. V.; Rheinfeld, A.; Rieger, B.; Hoster, H. E.; Jossen, A.

2016-10-01

The influence of cell temperature on the current density distribution and accompanying inhomogeneities in state of charge (SOC) during cycling is analyzed in this work. To allow for a detailed insight in the electrochemical behavior of the cell, commercially available 26650 cells were modified to allow for measuring local potentials at four different, nearly equidistant positions along the electrodes. As a follow-up to our previous work investigating local potentials within a cell, we apply this method for studying SOC deviations and their sensitivity to cell temperature. The local potential distribution was studied during constant current discharge operations for various current rates and discharge pulses in order to evoke local inhomogeneities for temperatures ranging from 10 °C to 40 °C. Differences in local potentials were considered for estimating local SOC variations within the electrodes. It could be observed that even low currents such as 0.1C can lead to significant inhomogeneities, whereas a higher cell temperature generally results in more pronounced inhomogeneities. A rapid SOC equilibration can be observed if the variation in the SOC distribution corresponds to a considerable potential difference defined by the open circuit voltage of either the positive or negative electrode. With increasing temperature, accelerated equalization effects can be observed.

An initial analysis of short- and medium-range correlations potential non-Pt catalysts in CoNx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Joe

2009-10-01

A potential show stopper for the development of fuel cells for the commercial automotive industry is the design of low-cost catalysts. The best catalysts are based on platinum, which is a rare and expensive noble metal. Our group has been involved in the characterization of potential materials for non-Pt catalysts. In this presentation, I will present some preliminary neutron scattering data from a nanocrystalline powder sample of CoNx. It is apparent that the diffraction data cannot be analyzed with standard Riedveld refinement, and we have to invoke pair distribution function (PDF) analysis. The PDF provides insight into short-range correlations, as it measures the probabilities of short- and mid-range interatomic distances in a material. The analysis reveals a strong incoherent scattering response, which is indicative of the presence of hydrogen in the sample. After correcting for the incoherent scattering, one obtains the normalized scattering function S(Q), whose Fourier transform yields the PDF.

An initial analysis of short- and medium-range correlations potential non-Pt catalysts in CoNx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Joe

2010-03-01

A potential show stopper for the development of fuel cells for the commercial automotive industry is the design of low-cost catalysts. The best catalysts are based on platinum, which is a rare and expensive noble metal. Our group has been involved in the characterization of potential materials for non-Pt catalysts. In this presentation, I will present some preliminary neutron scattering data from a nanocrystalline powder sample of CoNx. It is apparent that the diffraction data cannot be analyzed with standard Riedveld refinement, and we have to invoke pair distribution function (PDF) analysis. The PDF provides insight into short-range correlations, as it measures the probabilities of short- and mid-range interatomic distances in a material. The analysis reveals a strong incoherent scattering response, which is indicative of the presence of hydrogen in the sample. After correcting for the incoherent scattering, one obtains the normalized scattering function S(Q), whose Fourier transform yields the PDF.

Squeezed at the top: Interspecific aggression may constrain elevational ranges in tropical birds.

PubMed

Jankowski, Jill E; Robinson, Scott K; Levey, Douglas J

2010-07-01

Tropical montane species are characterized by narrow elevational distributions. Recent perspectives on mechanisms maintaining these restricted distributions have emphasized abiotic processes, but biotic processes may also play a role in their establishment or maintenance. One historically popular hypothesis, especially for birds, is that interspecific competition constrains ranges of closely related species that "replace" each other along elevational gradients. Supporting evidence, however, is based on patterns of occurrence and does not reveal potential mechanisms. We experimentally tested a prediction of this hypothesis in two genera of tropical songbirds, Catharus (Turdidae) and Henicorhina (Troglodytidae), in which species have nonoverlapping elevational distributions. Using heterospecific playback trials, we found that individuals at replacement zones showed aggressive territorial behavior in response to songs of congeners. As distance from replacement zones increased, aggression toward congener song decreased, suggesting a learned component to interspecific aggression. Additionally, aggressive responses in Catharus were asymmetric, indicating interspecific dominance. These results provide experimental evidence consistent with the hypothesis that interspecific competitive interactions restrict ranges of Neotropical birds. Our results also underscore the need to consider biotic processes, such as competition, when predicting how species' ranges will shift with climate change. Asymmetric aggression could be particularly important. For example, if warming in montane landscapes allows upslope range expansion by dominant competitors, then high-elevation subordinate species could be forced into progressively smaller mountaintop habitats, jeopardizing viability of their populations.

Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia.

PubMed

Ferro, Cristina; López, Marla; Fuya, Patricia; Lugo, Ligia; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; González, Camila

2015-01-01

Leishmania is transmitted by Phlebotominae insects that maintain the enzootic cycle by circulating between sylvatic and domestic mammals; humans enter the cycles as accidental hosts due to the vector's search for blood source. In Colombia, leishmaniasis is an endemic disease and 95% of all cases are cutaneous (CL), these cases have been reported in several regions of the country where the intervention of sylvatic areas by the introduction of agriculture seem to have an impact on the rearrangement of new transmission cycles. Our study aimed to update vector species distribution in the country and to analyze the relationship between vectors' distribution, climate, land use and CL prevalence. A database with geographic information was assembled, and ecological niche modeling was performed to explore the potential distribution of each of the 21 species of medical importance in Colombia, using thirteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic and three principal components derived from NDVI. Binary models for each species were obtained and related to both land use coverage, and a CL prevalence map with available epidemiological data. Finally, maps of species potential distribution were summed to define potential species richness in the country. In total, 673 single records were obtained with Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psychodopygus panamensis, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia evansi the species with the highest number of records. Eighteen species had significant models, considering the area under the curve and the jackknife results: L. gomezi and P. panamensis had the widest potential distribution. All sand fly species except for Nyssomyia antunesi are mainly distributed in regions with rates of prevalence between 0.33 to 101.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 76% of collection data points fall into transformed ecosystems. Distribution ranges of sand flies with medical importance in Colombia correspond predominantly to disturbed areas, where the original land coverage is missing therefore increasing the domiciliation potential. We highlight the importance of the use of distribution maps as a tool for the development of strategies for prevention and control of diseases.

Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia

PubMed Central

Ferro, Cristina; López, Marla; Fuya, Patricia; Lugo, Ligia; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; González, Camila

2015-01-01

Background Leishmania is transmitted by Phlebotominae insects that maintain the enzootic cycle by circulating between sylvatic and domestic mammals; humans enter the cycles as accidental hosts due to the vector’s search for blood source. In Colombia, leishmaniasis is an endemic disease and 95% of all cases are cutaneous (CL), these cases have been reported in several regions of the country where the intervention of sylvatic areas by the introduction of agriculture seem to have an impact on the rearrangement of new transmission cycles. Our study aimed to update vector species distribution in the country and to analyze the relationship between vectors’ distribution, climate, land use and CL prevalence. Methods A database with geographic information was assembled, and ecological niche modeling was performed to explore the potential distribution of each of the 21 species of medical importance in Colombia, using thirteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic and three principal components derived from NDVI. Binary models for each species were obtained and related to both land use coverage, and a CL prevalence map with available epidemiological data. Finally, maps of species potential distribution were summed to define potential species richness in the country. Results In total, 673 single records were obtained with Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psychodopygus panamensis, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia evansi the species with the highest number of records. Eighteen species had significant models, considering the area under the curve and the jackknife results: L. gomezi and P. panamensis had the widest potential distribution. All sand fly species except for Nyssomyia antunesi are mainly distributed in regions with rates of prevalence between 0.33 to 101.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 76% of collection data points fall into transformed ecosystems. Discussion Distribution ranges of sand flies with medical importance in Colombia correspond predominantly to disturbed areas, where the original land coverage is missing therefore increasing the domiciliation potential. We highlight the importance of the use of distribution maps as a tool for the development of strategies for prevention and control of diseases. PMID:26431546

An High Resolution Near-Earth Objects Population Enabling Next-Generation Search Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tricaico, Pasquale; Beshore, E. C.; Larson, S. M.; Boattini, A.; Williams, G. V.

2010-01-01

Over the past decade, the dedicated search for kilometer-size near-Earth objects (NEOs), potentially hazardous objects (PHOs), and potential Earth impactors has led to a boost in the rate of discoveries of these objects. The catalog of known NEOs is the fundamental ingredient used to develop a model for the NEOs population, either by assessing and correcting for the observational bias (Jedicke et al., 2002), or by evaluating the migration rates from the NEOs source regions (Bottke et al., 2002). The modeled NEOs population is a necessary tool used to track the progress in the search of large NEOs (Jedicke et al., 2003) and to try to predict the distribution of the ones still undiscovered, as well as to study the sky distribution of potential Earth impactors (Chesley & Spahr, 2004). We present a method to model the NEOs population in all six orbital elements, on a finely grained grid, allowing us the design and test of targeted and optimized search strategies. This method relies on the observational data routinely reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) and by other active NEO surveys over the past decade, to determine on a nightly basis the efficiency in detecting moving objects as a function of observable quantities including apparent magnitude, rate of motion, airmass, and galactic latitude. The cumulative detection probability is then be computed for objects within a small range in orbital elements and absolute magnitude, and the comparison with the number of know NEOs within the same range allows us to model the population. When propagated to the present epoch and projected on the sky plane, this provides the distribution of the missing large NEOs, PHOs, and potential impactors.

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Kangalawe, Richard Y M; Yanda, Pius Z

2010-04-23

Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

2018-01-01

AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and frameworks continue to be refined, performance assessments and validation efforts should focus on the measures of risk and vulnerability useful for decision-making.

Home Range Utilisation and Long-Range Movement of Estuarine Crocodiles during the Breeding and Nesting Season

PubMed Central

Campbell, Hamish A.; Dwyer, Ross G.; Irwin, Terri R.; Franklin, Craig E.

2013-01-01

The estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) is the apex-predator in waterways and coastlines throughout south-east Asia and Australasia. C. porosus pose a potential risk to humans, and management strategies are implemented to control their movement and distribution. Here we used GPS-based telemetry to accurately record geographical location of adult C. porosus during the breeding and nesting season. The purpose of the study was to assess how C. porosus movement and distribution may be influenced by localised social conditions. During breeding, the females (2.92±0.013 metres total length (TL), mean ± S.E., n = 4) occupied an area<1 km length of river, but to nest they travelled up to 54 km away from the breeding area. All tagged male C. porosus sustained high rates of movement (6.49±0.9 km d−1; n = 8) during the breeding and nesting period. The orientation of the daily movements differed between individuals revealing two discontinuous behavioural strategies. Five tagged male C. porosus (4.17±0.14 m TL) exhibited a ‘site-fidelic’ strategy and moved within well-defined zones around the female home range areas. In contrast, three males (3.81±0.08 m TL) exhibited ‘nomadic’ behaviour where they travelled continually throughout hundreds of kilometres of waterway. We argue that the ‘site-fidelic’ males patrolled territories around the female home ranges to maximise reproductive success, whilst the ‘nomadic’ males were subordinate animals that were forced to range over a far greater area in search of unguarded females. We conclude that C. porosus are highly mobile animals existing within a complex social system, and mate/con-specific interactions are likely to have a profound effect upon population density and distribution, and an individual's travel potential. We recommend that impacts on socio-spatial behaviour are considered prior to the implementation of management interventions. PMID:23650510

Major shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal

PubMed Central

Assis, J.; Berecibar, E.; Claro, B.; Alberto, F.; Reed, D.; Raimondi, P.; Serrão, E. A.

2017-01-01

Global climate change is likely to constrain low latitude range edges across many taxa and habitats. Such is the case for NE Atlantic marine macroalgal forests, important ecosystems whose main structuring species is the annual kelp Saccorhiza polyschides. We coupled ecological niche modelling with simulations of potential dispersal and delayed development stages to infer the major forces shaping range edges and to predict their dynamics. Models indicated that the southern limit is set by high winter temperatures above the physiological tolerance of overwintering microscopic stages and reduced upwelling during recruitment. The best range predictions were achieved assuming low spatial dispersal (5 km) and delayed stages up to two years (temporal dispersal). Reconstructing distributions through time indicated losses of ~30% from 1986 to 2014, restricting S. polyschides to upwelling regions at the southern edge. Future predictions further restrict populations to a unique refugium in northwestern Iberia. Losses were dependent on the emissions scenario, with the most drastic one shifting ~38% of the current distribution by 2100. Such distributional changes might not be rescued by dispersal in space or time (as shown for the recent past) and are expected to drive major biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning. PMID:28276501

Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

You, Jianling; Qin, Xiaoping; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Lougheed, Stephen C; Wang, Mingcheng; Zhou, Wen; Ouyang, Dongxin; Zhou, Yin; Xu, Jianchu; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Song, Zhiping

2018-04-12

Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as "nowhere to go". To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000-140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the "nowhere to go" hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.

Driving factors behind the distribution of dinocyst composition and abundance in surface sediments in a western Mediterranean coastal lagoon: report from a high resolution mapping study.

PubMed

Fertouna-Bellakhal, Mouna; Dhib, Amel; Béjaoui, Béchir; Turki, Souad; Aleya, Lotfi

2014-07-15

Species composition and abundance of dinocysts in relation to environmental factors were studied at 123 stations of surface sediment in Bizerte Lagoon. Forty-eight dinocyst types were identified, mainly dominated by Brigantidinium simplex, Votadinum spinosum, Alexandrium pseudogonyaulax, Alexandrium catenella, and Lingulodinum machaerophorum along with many round brown cysts and spiny round brown cysts. Cysts ranged from 1276 to 20126 cysts g(-1)dry weight sediment. Significant differences in cyst distribution pattern were recorded among the zones, with a higher cyst abundance occurring in the lagoon's inner areas. Redundancy analyses showed two distinct associations of dinocysts according to location and environmental variables. Ballast water discharges are potential introducers of non-indigenous species, especially harmful ones such as A. catenella and Polysphaeridium zoharyi, with currents playing a pivotal role in cyst distribution. Findings concerning harmful cyst species indicate potential seedbeds for initiation of future blooms and outbreaks of potentially toxic species in the lagoon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrative Taxonomy of Southeast Asian Snail-Eating Turtles (Geoemydidae: Malayemys) Reveals a New Species and Mitochondrial Introgression

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Vamberger, Melita; Flecks, Morris; Hartmann, Timo; Cota, Michael; Makchai, Sunchai; Meewattana, Pratheep; Dawson, Jeffrey E.; Kheng, Long; Rödder, Dennis; Fritz, Uwe

2016-01-01

Based on an integrative taxonomic approach, we examine the differentiation of Southeast Asian snail-eating turtles using information from 1863 bp of mitochondrial DNA, 12 microsatellite loci, morphology and a correlative species distribution model. Our analyses reveal three genetically distinct groups with limited mitochondrial introgression in one group. All three groups exhibit distinct nuclear gene pools and distinct morphology. Two of these groups correspond to the previously recognized species Malayemys macrocephala (Chao Phraya Basin) and M. subtrijuga (Lower Mekong Basin). The third and genetically most divergent group from the Khorat Basin represents a previously unrecognized species, which is described herein. Although Malayemys are extensively traded and used for religious release, only few studied turtles appear to be translocated by humans. Historic fluctuations in potential distributions were assessed using species distribution models (SDMs). The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) projection of the predictive SDMs suggests two distinct glacial distribution ranges, implying that the divergence of M. macrocephala and M. subtrijuga occurred in allopatry and was triggered by Pleistocene climate fluctuations. Only the projection derived from the global circulation model MIROC reveals a distinct third glacial distribution range for the newly discovered Malayemys species. PMID:27050302

Current distribution, habitat, and status of Category 2 candidate plant species on and near the U.S. Department of Energy's Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blomquist, Kevin W.; Lindemann, Tim A.; Lyon, Glen E.

1995-12-31

Results of surveys conducted between 1991 and 1995 were used to document the distribution and habitat of 11 Category 2 candidate plant species known to occur on or near the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Approximately 200 areas encompassing about 13,000 ha were surveyed. Distributions of all species except Frasera-pahutensis and Phaceliaparishii were increased, and the ranges of Camissonia megalantha, Galium hilendiae ssp. kingstonense, Penstemon albomarginatus, and Penstemon pahutensis were expanded. The status of each species was assessed based on current distribution population trends, and potential threats. Recommendations were made to reclassi& the following five species to Category 3C: Arctomecon merriamii,more » F. pahutensis, P. pahutensis, Phacelia beatleyae, and Phaceliaparishii. Two species, C. megalantha and Cymopterus ripIeyi var. saniculoides, were recommended for reclassification to Category 3B status. No recommendation was made to reclassify Astragalus funereus, G. hilendiae ssp. kingstonense, P. albomarginatus, or Penstemon fruticiformis var. amargosae from their current Category 2 status. Populations of these four species are not threatened on NTS, but the NTS populations represent only a.small portion of each species’ range and the potential threats of mining or grazing activities off NTS on these species was notassessed. Conservation measures recommended included the development of an NTS ecosystem conservation plan, continued conduct of preactivity and plant surveys on NTS, and protection of plant type localities on NTS.« less

Floating macro-litter along the Mediterranean French coast: Composition, density, distribution and overlap with cetacean range.

PubMed

Di-Méglio, Nathalie; Campana, Ilaria

2017-05-15

This study investigated the composition, density and distribution of floating macro-litter along the Liguro-Provençal basin with respect to cetaceans presence. Survey transects were performed in summer between 2006 and 2015 from sailing vessels with simultaneous cetaceans observations. During 5171km travelled, 1993 floating items were recorded, widespread in the whole study area. Plastics was the predominant category, with bags/packaging always representing >45% of total items. Overall mean density (14.98 items/km 2 ) was stable with significant increase reported only in 2010-2011; monthly analysis showed lower litter densities in July-September, suggesting possible seasonal patterns. Kernel density estimation for plastics revealed ubiquitous distribution rather than high accumulation areas, mainly due to the circulation dynamics of this area. The presence range of cetaceans (259 sightings, 6 species) corresponded by ~50% with plastic distribution, indicating high potential of interaction, especially in the eastern part of the area, but effective risks for marine species might be underrepresented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International Review of Standards and Labeling Programs for Distribution Transformers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letschert, Virginie; Scholand, Michael; Carreño, Ana María

Transmission and distribution (T&D) losses in electricity networks represent 8.5% of final energy consumption in the world. In Latin America, T&D losses range between 6% and 20% of final energy consumption, and represent 7% in Chile. Because approximately one-third of T&D losses take place in distribution transformers alone, there is significant potential to save energy and reduce costs and carbon emissions through policy intervention to increase distribution transformer efficiency. A large number of economies around the world have recognized the significant impact of addressing distribution losses and have implemented policies to support market transformation towards more efficient distribution transformers. Asmore » a result, there is considerable international experience to be shared and leveraged to inform countries interested in reducing distribution losses through policy intervention. The report builds upon past international studies of standards and labeling (S&L) programs for distribution transformers to present the current energy efficiency programs for distribution transformers around the world.« less

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

Thermodynamic framework for compact q-Gaussian distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza, Andre M. C.; Andrade, Roberto F. S.; Nobre, Fernando D.; Curado, Evaldo M. F.

2018-02-01

Recent works have associated systems of particles, characterized by short-range repulsive interactions and evolving under overdamped motion, to a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation within the class of nonextensive statistical mechanics, with a nonlinear diffusion contribution whose exponent is given by ν = 2 - q. The particular case ν = 2 applies to interacting vortices in type-II superconductors, whereas ν > 2 covers systems of particles characterized by short-range power-law interactions, where correlations among particles are taken into account. In the former case, several studies presented a consistent thermodynamic framework based on the definition of an effective temperature θ (presenting experimental values much higher than typical room temperatures T, so that thermal noise could be neglected), conjugated to a generalized entropy sν (with ν = 2). Herein, the whole thermodynamic scheme is revisited and extended to systems of particles interacting repulsively, through short-ranged potentials, described by an entropy sν, with ν > 1, covering the ν = 2 (vortices in type-II superconductors) and ν > 2 (short-range power-law interactions) physical examples. One basic requirement concerns a cutoff in the equilibrium distribution Peq(x) , approached due to a confining external harmonic potential, ϕ(x) = αx2 / 2 (α > 0). The main results achieved are: (a) The definition of an effective temperature θ conjugated to the entropy sν; (b) The construction of a Carnot cycle, whose efficiency is shown to be η = 1 -(θ2 /θ1) , where θ1 and θ2 are the effective temperatures associated with two isothermal transformations, with θ1 >θ2; (c) Thermodynamic potentials, Maxwell relations, and response functions. The present thermodynamic framework, for a system of interacting particles under the above-mentioned conditions, and associated to an entropy sν, with ν > 1, certainly enlarges the possibility of experimental verifications.

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

An integrate-over-temperature approach for enhanced sampling.

PubMed

Gao, Yi Qin

2008-02-14

A simple method is introduced to achieve efficient random walking in the energy space in molecular dynamics simulations which thus enhances the sampling over a large energy range. The approach is closely related to multicanonical and replica exchange simulation methods in that it allows configurations of the system to be sampled in a wide energy range by making use of Boltzmann distribution functions at multiple temperatures. A biased potential is quickly generated using this method and is then used in accelerated molecular dynamics simulations.

Atomistic simulations of carbon diffusion and segregation in liquid silicon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jinping; Alateeqi, Abdullah; Liu, Lijun; Sinno, Talid

2017-12-01

The diffusivity of carbon atoms in liquid silicon and their equilibrium distribution between the silicon melt and crystal phases are key, but unfortunately not precisely known parameters for the global models of silicon solidification processes. In this study, we apply a suite of molecular simulation tools, driven by multiple empirical potential models, to compute diffusion and segregation coefficients of carbon at the silicon melting temperature. We generally find good consistency across the potential model predictions, although some exceptions are identified and discussed. We also find good agreement with the range of available experimental measurements of segregation coefficients. However, the carbon diffusion coefficients we compute are significantly lower than the values typically assumed in continuum models of impurity distribution. Overall, we show that currently available empirical potential models may be useful, at least semi-quantitatively, for studying carbon (and possibly other impurity) transport in silicon solidification, especially if a multi-model approach is taken.

Perspectives on invasive amphibians in Brazil

PubMed Central

Forti, Lucas Rodriguez; Becker, C. Guilherme; Tacioli, Leandro; Pereira, Vânia Rosa; Santos, André Cid F. A.; Oliveira, Igor; Haddad, Célio F. B.; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-01-01

Introduced species have the potential to become invasive and jeopardize entire ecosystems. The success of species establishing viable populations outside their original extent depends primarily on favorable climatic conditions in the invasive ranges. Species distribution modeling (SDM) can thus be used to estimate potential habitat suitability for populations of invasive species. Here we review the status of six amphibian species with invasive populations in Brazil (four domestic species and two imported species). We (i) modeled the current habitat suitability and future potential distribution of these six focal species, (ii) reported on the disease status of Eleutherodactylus johnstonei and Phyllodytes luteolus, and (iii) quantified the acoustic overlap of P. luteolus and Leptodactylus labyrinthicus with three co-occurring native species. Our models indicated that all six invasive species could potentially expand their ranges in Brazil within the next few decades. In addition, our SDMs predicted important expansions in available habitat for 2 out of 6 invasive species under future (2100) climatic conditions. We detected high acoustic niche overlap between invasive and native amphibian species, underscoring that acoustic interference might reduce mating success in local frogs. Despite the American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus being recognized as a potential reservoir for the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in Brazil, we did not detect Bd in the recently introduced population of E. johnstonei and P. luteolus in the State of São Paulo. We emphasize that the number of invasive amphibian species in Brazil is increasing exponentially, highlighting the urgent need to monitor and control these populations and decrease potential impacts on the locally biodiverse wildlife. PMID:28938024

Perspectives on invasive amphibians in Brazil.

PubMed

Forti, Lucas Rodriguez; Becker, C Guilherme; Tacioli, Leandro; Pereira, Vânia Rosa; Santos, André Cid F A; Oliveira, Igor; Haddad, Célio F B; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-01-01

Introduced species have the potential to become invasive and jeopardize entire ecosystems. The success of species establishing viable populations outside their original extent depends primarily on favorable climatic conditions in the invasive ranges. Species distribution modeling (SDM) can thus be used to estimate potential habitat suitability for populations of invasive species. Here we review the status of six amphibian species with invasive populations in Brazil (four domestic species and two imported species). We (i) modeled the current habitat suitability and future potential distribution of these six focal species, (ii) reported on the disease status of Eleutherodactylus johnstonei and Phyllodytes luteolus, and (iii) quantified the acoustic overlap of P. luteolus and Leptodactylus labyrinthicus with three co-occurring native species. Our models indicated that all six invasive species could potentially expand their ranges in Brazil within the next few decades. In addition, our SDMs predicted important expansions in available habitat for 2 out of 6 invasive species under future (2100) climatic conditions. We detected high acoustic niche overlap between invasive and native amphibian species, underscoring that acoustic interference might reduce mating success in local frogs. Despite the American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus being recognized as a potential reservoir for the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in Brazil, we did not detect Bd in the recently introduced population of E. johnstonei and P. luteolus in the State of São Paulo. We emphasize that the number of invasive amphibian species in Brazil is increasing exponentially, highlighting the urgent need to monitor and control these populations and decrease potential impacts on the locally biodiverse wildlife.

Field sampling of loose erodible material: A new method to consider the full particle-size range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, Martina; Gill, Thomas E.

2017-04-01

The aerodynamic entrainment of sand and dust is determined by the atmospheric forces exerted onto the soil surface and by the soil-surface condition. If aerodynamic forces are strong enough to generate sand and dust lifting, the entrained sediment amount still critically depends on the supply of loose particles readily available for lifting. This loose erodible material (LEM) is sometimes defined as the thin layer of loose particles on top of a crusted surface. Here, we more generally define LEM as loose particles or particle aggregates available for entrainment, which may or may not overlay a soil crust. Field sampling of LEM is difficult and only few attempts have been made. Motivated by saltation as the most efficient process to generate dust emission, methods have focused on capturing LEM in the sand-size range or on determining the potential of a soil surface to be eroded by aerodynamic forces and particle impacts. Here, our focus is to capture the full particle-size distribution of LEM in situ, including the dust and sand-size range, to investigate the potential and likelihood of dust emission mechanisms (aerodynamic entrainment, saltation bombardment, aggregate disintegration) to occur. A new vacuum method is introduced and its capability to sample LEM without significant alteration of the LEM particle-size distribution is investigated.

Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

PubMed

Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

2016-06-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Unravelling the drastic range retraction of an emblematic songbird of North Africa: potential threats to Afro-Palearctic migratory birds.

PubMed

Khelifa, Rassim; Zebsa, Rabah; Amari, Hichem; Mellal, Mohammed Khalil; Bensouilah, Soufyane; Laouar, Abdeldjalil; Mahdjoub, Hayat

2017-04-24

Understanding how culture may influence biodiversity is fundamental to ensure effective conservation, especially when the practice is local but the implications are global. Despite that, little effort has been devoted to documenting cases of culturally-related biodiversity loss. Here, we investigate the cultural domestication of the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in western Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and the effects of long-term poaching of wild populations (1990-2016) on range distribution, socio-economic value, international trading and potential collateral damage on Afro-Palearctic migratory birds. On average, we found that the European goldfinch lost 56.7% of its distribution range in the region which led to the increase of its economic value and establishment of international trading network in western Maghreb. One goldfinch is currently worth nearly a third of the average monthly income in the region. There has been a major change in poaching method around 2010, where poachers started to use mist nets to capture the species. Nearly a third of the 16 bird species captured as by-catch of the European goldfinch poaching are migratory, of which one became regularly sold as cage-bird. These results suggest that Afro-Palearctic migratory birds could be under serious by-catch threat.

An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus

PubMed Central

Getz, Wayne

2016-01-01

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide. PMID:27564232

Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

PubMed Central

Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Mohamed, Samira F.; Khamis, Fathiya; Ekesi, Sunday

2015-01-01

To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and management strategies. PMID:26252204

An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus.

PubMed

Carlson, Colin J; Dougherty, Eric R; Getz, Wayne

2016-08-01

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide.

Red Fox as Sentinel for Blastomyces dermatitidis, Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Nemeth, Nicole M; Campbell, G Douglas; Oesterle, Paul T; Shirose, Lenny; McEwen, Beverly; Jardine, Claire M

2016-07-01

Blastomyces dermatitidis, a fungus that can cause fatal infection in humans and other mammals, is not readily recoverable from soil, its environmental reservoir. Because of the red fox's widespread distribution, susceptibility to B. dermatitidis, close association with soil, and well-defined home ranges, this animal has potential utility as a sentinel for this fungus.

Transmission of chronic wasting disease of white-tailed deer to Suffolk sheep following intracranial inoculation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: Interspecies transmission studies are an opportunity to better understand the potential host ranges of prion diseases. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids and scrapie of sheep and goats have a similar tissue distribution of abnormal prion protein (PrPSc) and prion disease exposure a...

Expected irrigation reductions using multiple-inlet rice irrigation under rainfall conditions in the lower Mississippi River Valley.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A model was developed to compare irrigation applications made using single-inlet and multiple-inlet rice flood distribution practices commonly used in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The model was used to determine potential irrigation reductions under a wide range of natural rainfall amounts an...

Development of Affordable, Low-Carbon Hydrogen Supplies at an Industrial Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roddy, Dermot J.

2008-01-01

An existing industrial hydrogen generation and distribution infrastructure is described, and a number of large-scale investment projects are outlined. All of these projects have the potential to generate significant volumes of low-cost, low-carbon hydrogen. The technologies concerned range from gasification of coal with carbon capture and storage…

Could natural selection change the geographic range limits of light brown apple moth (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae) in North America?

Treesearch

Amy C. Morey; Robert C. Venette; William D. Hutchison

2013-01-01

We artificially selected for increased freeze tolerance in the invasive light brown apple moth. Our results suggest that, by not accounting for adaptation to cold, current models of potential geographic distributions could underestimate the areas at risk of exposure to this species.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species’ distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr−1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities. PMID:27504632

Combining public participatory surveillance and occupancy modelling to predict the distributional response of Ixodes scapularis to climate change.

PubMed

Lieske, David J; Lloyd, Vett K

2018-03-01

Ixodes scapularis, a known vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (Bbss), is undergoing range expansion in many parts of Canada. The province of New Brunswick, which borders jurisdictions with established populations of I. scapularis, constitutes a range expansion zone for this species. To better understand the current and potential future distribution of this tick under climate change projections, this study applied occupancy modelling to distributional records of adult ticks that successfully overwintered, obtained through passive surveillance. This study indicates that I. scapularis occurs throughout the southern-most portion of the province, in close proximity to coastlines and major waterways. Milder winter conditions, as indicated by the number of degree days <0 °C, was determined to be a strong predictor of tick occurrence, as was, to a lesser degree, rising levels of annual precipitation, leading to a final model with a predictive accuracy of 0.845 (range: 0.828-0.893). Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections predict that a significant proportion of the province (roughly a quarter to a third) will be highly suitable for I. scapularis by the 2080s. Comparison with cases of canine infection show good spatial agreement with baseline model predictions, but the presence of canine Borrelia infections beyond the climate envelope, defined by the highest probabilities of tick occurrence, suggest the presence of Bbss-carrying ticks distributed by long-range dispersal events. This research demonstrates that predictive statistical modelling of multi-year surveillance information is an efficient way to identify areas where I. scapularis is most likely to occur, and can be used to guide subsequent active sampling efforts in order to better understand fine scale species distributional patterns. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Universality and chaotic dynamics in reactive scattering of ultracold KRb molecules with K atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ming; Makrides, Constantinos; Petrov, Alexander; Kotochigova, Svetlana; Croft, James F. E.; Balakrishnan, Naduvalath; Kendrick, Brian K.

2017-04-01

We study the benchmark reaction between the most-celebrated ultracold polar molecule, KRb, with an ultracold K atom. For the first time we map out an accurate ab initio ground potential energy surface of the K2Rb complex in full dimensionality and performed a numerically exact quantum-mechanical calculation of reaction dynamics based on coupled-channels approach in hyperspherical coordinates. An analysis of the adiabatic hyperspherical potentials reveals a chaotic distribution for the short-range complex that plays a key role in governing the reaction outcome. The equivalent distribution for a lighter collisional system with a smaller density of states (here the Li2Yb trimer) only shows random behavior. We find an extreme sensitivity of our chaotic system to a small perturbation associated with the weak non-additive three-body potential contribution that does not affect the total reaction rate coefficient but leads to a significant change in the rotational distribution in the product molecule. In both cases the distribution of these rates is random or Poissonian. This work was supported in part by NSF Grant PHY-1505557 (N.B.) and PHY-1619788 (S.K.), ARO MURI Grant No. W911NF-12-1-0476 (N.B. & S.K.), and DOE LDRD Grant No. 20170221ER (B.K.).

Soft Wall Ion Channel in Continuum Representation with Application to Modeling Ion Currents in α-Hemolysin

PubMed Central

Simakov, Nikolay A.

2010-01-01

A soft repulsion (SR) model of short range interactions between mobile ions and protein atoms is introduced in the framework of continuum representation of the protein and solvent. The Poisson-Nernst-Plank (PNP) theory of ion transport through biological channels is modified to incorporate this soft wall protein model. Two sets of SR parameters are introduced: the first is parameterized for all essential amino acid residues using all atom molecular dynamic simulations; the second is a truncated Lennard – Jones potential. We have further designed an energy based algorithm for the determination of the ion accessible volume, which is appropriate for a particular system discretization. The effects of these models of short-range interaction were tested by computing current-voltage characteristics of the α-hemolysin channel. The introduced SR potentials significantly improve prediction of channel selectivity. In addition, we studied the effect of choice of some space-dependent diffusion coefficient distributions on the predicted current-voltage properties. We conclude that the diffusion coefficient distributions largely affect total currents and have little effect on rectifications, selectivity or reversal potential. The PNP-SR algorithm is implemented in a new efficient parallel Poisson, Poisson-Boltzman and PNP equation solver, also incorporated in a graphical molecular modeling package HARLEM. PMID:21028776

Minimum relative entropy distributions with a large mean are Gaussian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerlak, Matteo

2016-12-01

Entropy optimization principles are versatile tools with wide-ranging applications from statistical physics to engineering to ecology. Here we consider the following constrained problem: Given a prior probability distribution q , find the posterior distribution p minimizing the relative entropy (also known as the Kullback-Leibler divergence) with respect to q under the constraint that mean (p ) is fixed and large. We show that solutions to this problem are approximately Gaussian. We discuss two applications of this result. In the context of dissipative dynamics, the equilibrium distribution of a Brownian particle confined in a strong external field is independent of the shape of the confining potential. We also derive an H -type theorem for evolutionary dynamics: The entropy of the (standardized) distribution of fitness of a population evolving under natural selection is eventually increasing in time.

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges

PubMed Central

Carotenuto, Francesco; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.

2016-01-01

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes—speciation, extinction and dispersal—in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. PMID:26977061

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges.

PubMed

Villalobos, Fabricio; Carotenuto, Francesco; Raia, Pasquale; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F

2016-04-05

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes--speciation, extinction and dispersal--in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

PubMed

Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

2017-04-01

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075

PubMed Central

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be “suitable” for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges. PMID:25372571

Modeling the geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax disease, for the contiguous United States using predictive ecological [corrected] niche modeling.

PubMed

Blackburn, Jason K; McNyset, Kristina M; Curtis, Andrew; Hugh-Jones, Martin E

2007-12-01

The ecology and distribution of Bacillus anthracis is poorly understood despite continued anthrax outbreaks in wildlife and livestock throughout the United States. Little work is available to define the potential environments that may lead to prolonged spore survival and subsequent outbreaks. This study used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system to model the ecological niche for B. anthracis in the contiguous United States using wildlife and livestock outbreaks and several environmental variables. The modeled niche is defined by a narrow range of normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation, and elevation, with the geographic distribution heavily concentrated in a narrow corridor from southwest Texas northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota. Because disease control programs rely on vaccination and carcass disposal, and vaccination in wildlife remains untenable, understanding the distribution of B. anthracis plays an important role in efforts to prevent/eradicate the disease. Likewise, these results potentially aid in differentiating endemic/natural outbreaks from industrial-contamination related outbreaks or bioterrorist attacks.

Suprathermal plasma analyzer for the measurement of low-energy electron distribution in the ionosphere.

PubMed

Shimoyama, M; Oyama, K-I; Abe, T; Yau, A W

2011-07-01

It is commonly believed that an energy transfer from thermal to suprathermal electrons (

Disentangling the major source areas for an intense aerosol advection in the Central Mediterranean on the basis of Potential Source Contribution Function modeling of chemical and size distribution measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroselli, Chiara; Crocchianti, Stefano; Moroni, Beatrice; Castellini, Silvia; Selvaggi, Roberta; Nava, Silvia; Calzolai, Giulia; Lucarelli, Franco; Cappelletti, David

2018-05-01

In this paper, we combined a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis of daily chemical aerosol composition data with hourly aerosol size distributions with the aim to disentangle the major source areas during a complex and fast modulating advection event impacting on Central Italy in 2013. Chemical data include an ample set of metals obtained by Proton Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE), main soluble ions from ionic chromatography and elemental and organic carbon (EC, OC) obtained by thermo-optical measurements. Size distributions have been recorded with an optical particle counter for eight calibrated size classes in the 0.27-10 μm range. We demonstrated the usefulness of the approach by the positive identification of two very different source areas impacting during the transport event. In particular, biomass burning from Eastern Europe and desert dust from Sahara sources have been discriminated based on both chemistry and size distribution time evolution. Hourly BT provided the best results in comparison to 6 h or 24 h based calculations.

Fiber optic shape sensing for monitoring of flexible structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lally, Evan M.; Reaves, Matt; Horrell, Emily; Klute, Sandra; Froggatt, Mark E.

2012-04-01

Recent advances in materials science have resulted in a proliferation of flexible structures for high-performance civil, mechanical, and aerospace applications. Large aspect-ratio aircraft wings, composite wind turbine blades, and suspension bridges are all designed to meet critical performance targets while adapting to dynamic loading conditions. By monitoring the distributed shape of a flexible component, fiber optic shape sensing technology has the potential to provide valuable data during design, testing, and operation of these smart structures. This work presents a demonstration of such an extended-range fiber optic shape sensing technology. Three-dimensional distributed shape and position sensing is demonstrated over a 30m length using a monolithic silica fiber with multiple optical cores. A novel, helicallywound geometry endows the fiber with the capability to convert distributed strain measurements, made using Optical Frequency-Domain Reflectometry (OFDR), to a measurement of curvature, twist, and 3D shape along its entire length. Laboratory testing of the extended-range shape sensing technology shows

Global decline in suitable habitat for Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis: the role of climate change.

PubMed

York, Emily M; Butler, Christopher J; Lord, Wayne D

2014-01-01

Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68-152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66-15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11-16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

The relationship between climate change and the endangered rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu-Kimura, Yoko; Accad, Arnon; Shapcott, Alison

2017-04-01

Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes and restricted distributions. This study modelled climate induced changes on the habitat distribution of the endangered rainforest plant Triunia robusta, endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. Species distribution models were developed for eastern Australia at 250 m grids and southeast Queensland at 25 m grids using ground-truthed presence records and environmental predictor data. The species’ habitat distribution under the current climate was modelled, and the future potential habitat distributions were projected for the epochs 2030, 2050 and 2070. The eastern Australia model identified several spatially disjunct, broad habitat areas of coastal eastern Australia consistent with the current distribution of rainforests, and projected a southward and upslope contraction driven mainly by average temperatures exceeding current range limits. The southeast Queensland models suggest a dramatic upslope contraction toward locations where the majority of known populations are found. Populations located in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, consistent with past rainforest refugia, are likely to persist long-term. Upgrading the level of protection for less formal nature reserves containing viable populations is a high priority to better protect refugial T. robusta populations with respect to climate change.

The relationship between climate change and the endangered rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Shimizu-Kimura, Yoko; Accad, Arnon; Shapcott, Alison

2017-01-01

Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes and restricted distributions. This study modelled climate induced changes on the habitat distribution of the endangered rainforest plant Triunia robusta, endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. Species distribution models were developed for eastern Australia at 250 m grids and southeast Queensland at 25 m grids using ground-truthed presence records and environmental predictor data. The species’ habitat distribution under the current climate was modelled, and the future potential habitat distributions were projected for the epochs 2030, 2050 and 2070. The eastern Australia model identified several spatially disjunct, broad habitat areas of coastal eastern Australia consistent with the current distribution of rainforests, and projected a southward and upslope contraction driven mainly by average temperatures exceeding current range limits. The southeast Queensland models suggest a dramatic upslope contraction toward locations where the majority of known populations are found. Populations located in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, consistent with past rainforest refugia, are likely to persist long-term. Upgrading the level of protection for less formal nature reserves containing viable populations is a high priority to better protect refugial T. robusta populations with respect to climate change. PMID:28422136

Effect of surface tension on the behavior of adhesive contact based on Lennard-Jones potential law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xinyao; Xu, Wei

2018-02-01

The present study explores the effect of surface tension on adhesive contact behavior where the adhesion is interpreted by long-range intermolecular forces. The adhesive contact is analyzed using the equivalent system of a rigid sphere and an elastic half space covered by a membrane with surface tension. The long-range intermolecular forces are modeled with the Lennard‒Jones (L‒J) potential law. The current adhesive contact issue can be represented by a nonlinear integral equation, which can be solved by Newton‒Raphson method. In contrast to previous studies which consider intermolecular forces as short-range, the present study reveals more details of the features of adhesive contact with surface tension, in terms of jump instabilities, pull-off forces, pressure distribution within the contact area, etc. The transition of the pull-off force is not only consistent with previous studies, but also presents some new interesting characteristics in the current situation.

Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Riper, Charles; Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Mattson, David; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Nowak, Erika M.; Ironside, Kirsten; Peters, Michael; Heinrich, Paul; Cole, K.L.; Truettner, C.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.

2014-01-01

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis, in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis. Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis, thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

ColorMoves: Optimizing Color's Potential for Exploration and Communication of Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsel, F.

2017-12-01

Color is the most powerful perceptual channel available for exposing and communicating data. Most visualizations are rendered in one of a handful of common colormaps - the rainbow, cool-warm, heat map and viridis. These maps meet the basic criteria for encoding data - perceptual uniformity and reasonable discriminatory power. However, as the size and complexity of data grows, our need to optimize the potential of color grows. The ability to expose greater detail and differentiate between multiple variables becomes ever more important. To meet this need we have created ColorMoves, an interactive colormap construction tool that enables scientists to quickly and easily align a concentration contrast with the data ranges of interest. Perceptual research tells us that luminance is the strongest contrast and thus provides the highest degree of perceptual discrimination. However, the most commonly used colormaps contain a limited range of luminance contrast. ColorMoves enables interactive constructing colormaps enabling one to distribute the luminance where is it most needed. The interactive interface enables optimal placement of the color scales. The ability to watch the changes on ones data, in real time makes precision adjustment quick and easy. By enabling more precise placement and multiple ranges of luminance one can construct colomaps containing greater discriminatory power. By selecting from the wide range of color scale hues scientists can create colormaps intuitive to their subject. ColorMoves is comprised of four main components: a set of 40 color scales; a histogram of the data distribution; a viewing area showing the colormap on your data; and the controls section. The 40 color scales span the spectrum of hues, saturation levels and value distributions. The histogram of the data distribution enables placement of the color scales in precise locations. The viewing area show is the impact of changes on the data in real time. The controls section enables export of the constructed colormaps for use in tools such as ParaView and Matplotlib. For a clearer understanding of ColorMoves capability we recommend trying it out at SciVisColor.org.

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

PubMed Central

Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Kutt, Alex S

2012-01-01

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this “realistic” dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species’ range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species. PMID:22837819

From K giants to G dwarfs: stellar lifetime effects on metallicity distributions derived from red giants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, Ellen M.; Cole, Andrew A.

2017-11-01

We examine the biases inherent to chemical abundance distributions when targets are selected from the red giant branch (RGB), using simulated giant branches created from isochrones. We find that even when stars are chosen from the entire colour range of RGB stars and over a broad range of magnitudes, the relative numbers of stars of different ages and metallicities, integrated over all stellar types, are not accurately represented in the giant branch sample. The result is that metallicity distribution functions derived from RGB star samples require a correction before they can be fitted by chemical evolution models. We derive simple correction factors for over- and under-represented populations for the limiting cases of single-age populations with a broad range of metallicities and of continuous star formation at constant metallicity; an important general conclusion is that intermediate-age populations (≈1-4 Gyr) are over-represented in RGB samples. We apply our models to the case of the Large Magellanic Cloud bar and show that the observed metallicity distribution underestimates the true number of metal-poor stars by more than 25 per cent; as a result, the inferred importance of gas flows in chemical evolution models could potentially be overestimated. The age- and metallicity-dependences of RGB lifetimes require careful modelling if they are not to lead to spurious conclusions about the chemical enrichment history of galaxies.

Vertical motion of a charged colloidal particle near an AC polarized electrode with a nonuniform potential distribution: theory and experimental evidence.

PubMed

Fagan, Jeffrey A; Sides, Paul J; Prieve, Dennis C

2004-06-08

Electroosmotic flow in the vicinity of a colloidal particle suspended over an electrode accounts for observed changes in the average height of the particle when the electrode passes alternating current at 100 Hz. The main findings are (1) electroosmotic flow provides sufficient force to move the particle and (2) a phase shift between the purely electrical force on the particle and the particle's motion provides evidence of an E2 force acting on the particle. The electroosmotic force in this case arises from the boundary condition applied when faradaic reactions occur on the electrode. The presence of a potential-dependent electrode reaction moves the likely distribution of electrical current at the electrode surface toward uniform current density around the particle. In the presence of a particle the uniform current density is associated with a nonuniform potential; thus, the electric field around the particle has a nonzero radial component along the electrode surface, which interacts with unbalanced charge in the diffuse double layer on the electrode to create a flow pattern and impose an electroosmotic-flow-based force on the particle. Numerical solutions are presented for these additional height-dependent forces on the particle as a function of the current distribution on the electrode and for the time-dependent probability density of a charged colloidal particle near a planar electrode with a nonuniform electrical potential boundary condition. The electrical potential distribution on the electrode, combined with a phase difference between the electric field in solution and the electrode potential, can account for the experimentally observed motion of particles in ac electric fields in the frequency range from approximately 10 to 200 Hz.

Distribution of Curcumin and THC in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells Isolated from Healthy Individuals and Patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia.

PubMed

Bolger, Gordon T; Licollari, Albert; Tan, Aimin; Greil, Richard; Pleyer, Lisa; Vcelar, Brigitta; Majeed, Muhammad; Sordillo, Peter

2018-01-01

Background/Aim: Curcumin is being widely investigated for its anticancer properties and studies in the literature suggest that curcumin distributes to a higher degree in tumor versus non-tumor cells. In the current study, we report on investigation of the distribution of curcumin and metabolism to THC in PBMC from healthy individuals and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients following exposure to Lipocurc™ (liposomal curcumin). Materials and Methods: The time and temperature-dependent distribution of liposomal curcumin and metabolism to tetrahydrocurcumin (THC) were measured in vitro in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) obtained from healthy individuals, PBMC HI (cryopreserved and freshly isolated PBMC) and CLL patients (cryopreserved PBMC) with lymphocyte counts ranging from 17-58×10 6 cells/ml (PBMC CLL,Grp 1 ) and >150×10 6 cells/ml (PBMC CLL,Grp 2 ). PBMC were incubated in plasma protein supplemented media with Lipocurc™ for 2-16 min at 37°C and 4°C and the cell and medium levels of curcumin determined by LC-MS/MS. Results: PBMC from CLL patients displayed a 2.2-2.6-fold higher distribution of curcumin compared to PBMC HI Curcumin distribution into PBMCCLL, Grp 1/Grp 2 ranged from 384.75 - 574.50 ng/g w.w. of cell pellet and was greater compared to PBMC HI that ranged from 122.27-220.59 ng/g w.w. of cell pellet following incubation for up to 15-16 min at 37°C. The distribution of curcumin into PBMC CLL,Grp 2 was time-dependent in comparison to PBMC HI which did not display a time-dependence and there was no temperature-dependence for curcumin distribution in either cell type. Curcumin was metabolized to THC in PBMC. The metabolism of curcumin to THC was not markedly different between PBMC HI (range=23.94-42.04 ng/g w.w. cell pellet) and PBMC CLL,Grp 1/Grp 2 (range=23.08-48.22 ng/g. w.w. cell pellet). However, a significantly greater time and temperature-dependence was noted for THC in PBMC CLL,Grp 2 compared to PBMC HI Conclusion: Curcumin distribution into PBMC from CLL patients was higher compared to PBMC from healthy individuals, while metabolism to THC was similar. The potential for a greater distribution of curcumin into PBMC from CLL patients may be of therapeutic benefit. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Croft, J. F. E.; Makrides, C.; Li, M.

A fundamental question in the study of chemical reactions is how reactions proceed at a collision energy close to absolute zero. This question is no longer hypothetical: quantum degenerate gases of atoms and molecules can now be created at temperatures lower than a few tens of nanokelvin. Here we consider the benchmark ultracold reaction between, the most-celebrated ultracold molecule, KRb and K. We map out an accurate ab initio ground-state potential energy surface of the K 2Rb complex in full dimensionality and report numerically-exact quantum-mechanical reaction dynamics. The distribution of rotationally resolved rates is shown to be Poissonian. An analysismore » of the hyperspherical adiabatic potential curves explains this statistical character revealing a chaotic distribution for the short-range collision complex that plays a key role in governing the reaction outcome.« less

Measurement of non-Maxwellian electron velocity distributions in a reflex discharge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phipps, C. R., Jr.; Bershader, D.

1978-01-01

The results of a ruby laser Thomson scattering study of the space and time-resolved electron velocity distributions in a pulsed Penning discharge in hydrogen are presented. Electron densities were to the order of 10 to the 13th/cu cm and temperatures were roughly 3 eV. This point is just prior to the cessation of the discharge ohmic heating pulse. For magnetic strengths less than 200 G, Maxwellian distributions were found over an energy range six times thermal energy. Temperatures agreed with Langmuir probe data. For fields of 450 G, chaotic plasma potentials were observed to be unstable and the Thomson scattering showed that the electron velocity distributions had central temperatures of 2 eV and wing temperatures of 15-12 eV.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Repulsive nature of optical potentials for high-energy heavy-ion scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Furumoto, T.; Sakuragi, Y.; Yamamoto, Y.

2010-10-15

The recent works by the present authors predicted that the real part of heavy-ion optical potentials changes its character from attraction to repulsion around the incident energy per nucleon E/A=200-300 MeV on the basis of the complex G-matrix interaction and the double-folding model (DFM) and revealed that the three-body force plays an important role there. In the present paper, we have precisely analyzed the energy dependence of the calculated DFM potentials and its relation to the elastic-scattering angular distributions in detail in the case of the {sup 12}C+{sup 12}C system in the energy range of E/A=100-400 MeV. The tensor forcemore » contributes substantially to the energy dependence of the real part of the DFM potentials and plays an important role to lower the attractive-to-repulsive transition energy. The nearside and farside (N/F) decompositions of the elastic-scattering amplitudes clarify the close relation between the attractive-to-repulsive transition of the potentials and the characteristic evolution of the calculated angular distributions with the increase of the incident energy. Based on the present analysis, we propose experimental measurements for the predicted strong diffraction phenomena of the elastic-scattering angular distribution caused by the N/F interference around the attractive-to-repulsive transition energy together with the reduced diffractions below and above the transition energy.« less

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

On the theory of Lorentz gases with long range interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nota, Alessia; Simonella, Sergio; Velázquez, Juan J. L.

We construct and study the stochastic force field generated by a Poisson distribution of sources at finite density, x1,x2,…, in ℝ3 each of them yielding a long range potential QiΦ(x - xi) with possibly different charges Qi ∈ ℝ. The potential Φ is assumed to behave typically as |x|-s for large |x|, with s > 1/2. We will denote the resulting random field as “generalized Holtsmark field”. We then consider the dynamics of one tagged particle in such random force fields, in several scaling limits where the mean free path is much larger than the average distance between the scatterers. We estimate the diffusive time scale and identify conditions for the vanishing of correlations. These results are used to obtain appropriate kinetic descriptions in terms of a linear Boltzmann or Landau evolution equation depending on the specific choices of the interaction potential.

Plasma parameters in a multidipole plasma system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruscanu, D.; Anita, V.; Popa, G.

Plasma potential and electron number densities and electron temperatures under bi-Maxwellian approximation for electron distribution function of the multidipole argon plasma source system were measured for a gas pressure ranging between 10-4 and 10-3 mbar and an anode-cathode voltage ranging between 40 and 120 V but a constant discharge current intensity. The first group, as ultimate or cold electrons and main electron plasma population, results by trapping of the slow electrons produced by ionisation process due to primary-neutral collisions. The trapping process is produced by potential well due to positive plasma potential with respect to the anode so that electron temperature of the ultimate electrons does not depend on both the gas pressure and discharge voltage. The second group, as secondary or hot electrons, results as degrading process of the primaries and their number density increases while their temperature decreases with the increase of both the gas pressure and discharge voltage.

Bed conduction impact on fiber optic distributed temperature sensing water temperature measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell Meininger, T.; Selker, J. S.

2015-02-01

Error in distributed temperature sensing (DTS) water temperature measurements may be introduced by contact of the fiber optic cable sensor with bed materials (e.g., seafloor, lakebed, streambed). Heat conduction from the bed materials can affect cable temperature and the resulting DTS measurements. In the Middle Fork John Day River, apparent water temperature measurements were influenced by cable sensor contact with aquatic vegetation and fine sediment bed materials. Affected cable segments measured a diurnal temperature range reduced by 10% and lagged by 20-40 min relative to that of ambient stream temperature. The diurnal temperature range deeper within the vegetation-sediment bed material was reduced 70% and lagged 240 min relative to ambient stream temperature. These site-specific results illustrate the potential magnitude of bed-conduction impacts with buried DTS measurements. Researchers who deploy DTS for water temperature monitoring should understand the importance of the environment into which the cable is placed on the range and phase of temperature measurements.

Electronic structure, dielectric response, and surface charge distribution of RGD (1FUV) peptide.

PubMed

Adhikari, Puja; Wen, Amy M; French, Roger H; Parsegian, V Adrian; Steinmetz, Nicole F; Podgornik, Rudolf; Ching, Wai-Yim

2014-07-08

Long and short range molecular interactions govern molecular recognition and self-assembly of biological macromolecules. Microscopic parameters in the theories of these molecular interactions are either phenomenological or need to be calculated within a microscopic theory. We report a unified methodology for the ab initio quantum mechanical (QM) calculation that yields all the microscopic parameters, namely the partial charges as well as the frequency-dependent dielectric response function, that can then be taken as input for macroscopic theories of electrostatic, polar, and van der Waals-London dispersion intermolecular forces. We apply this methodology to obtain the electronic structure of the cyclic tripeptide RGD-4C (1FUV). This ab initio unified methodology yields the relevant parameters entering the long range interactions of biological macromolecules, providing accurate data for the partial charge distribution and the frequency-dependent dielectric response function of this peptide. These microscopic parameters determine the range and strength of the intricate intermolecular interactions between potential docking sites of the RGD-4C ligand and its integrin receptor.

Increasing the realism of projected tree species ranges by incorporating migration potential: an eastern US case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Jantz, P.; Goetz, S. J.

2015-12-01

Models of vegetation distributions are used for a wide variety of purposes, from global assessments of biome shifts and biogeochemical feedbacks to local management planning. Dynamic vegetation models, mostly mechanistic in origin, are valuable for regional to global studies but remain limited for more local-scale applications, especially those that require species-specific responses to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used for such applications, but these too have several outstanding limitations, one of the most prominent being a lack of dispersal and migration. Several hybrid models have recently been developed, but these generally require detailed parameterization of species-level attributes that may not be known. Here we present an approach to couple migration potential with SDM output for a large number of species in order to more realistically project future range shifts. We focus on 40 tree species in the eastern US of potential management concern, either because of their canopy dominance, ecosystem functions, or potential for utilizing future climates. Future climates were taken from a CMIP5 model ensemble average using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We used Random Forests to characterize current and future environmental suitability, and modeled migration as a negative exponential kernel that is affected by forest fragmentation and the density of current seed sources. We present results in a vulnerability framework relevant for a number of ongoing management activities in the region. We find an overarching pattern of northward and eastward range shifts, with high-elevation and northern species being the most adversely impacted. Because of limitations to migration, many newly suitable areas could not be utilized without active intervention. Only a few areas exhibited consistently favorable conditions that could be utilized by the relevant species, including the central Appalachian foothills and the Florida panhandle. We suggest that a continued effort to include migration potential into vegetation models can lead to more realistic results and management-relevant products.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

PubMed

Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

2016-02-01

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Y. Z., E-mail: qyzbird@live.com; Chen, H., E-mail: hchen61@ncu.edu.cn; Liu, S. Q., E-mail: sqlgroup@ncu.edu.cn

The Jeans instability in self-gravitating plasma with Kappa distributed dust grains is investigated basing on assumption that the mutual interaction among dust grains is governed by Lennard-Jones potential. It is shown that the presence of additional suprathermal particles has significant effects on the range of unstable modes and growth rate of Jeans instability. Compared with Maxwellian scenario, suprathermality stabilized the Jeans instability.

An Empirical Comparison of Two-Stage and Pyramidal Adaptive Ability Testing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larkin, Kevin C.; Weiss, David J.

A 15-stage pyramidal test and a 40-item two-stage test were constructed and administered by computer to 111 college undergraduates. The two-stage test was found to utilize a smaller proportion of its potential score range than the pyramidal test. Score distributions for both tests were positively skewed but not significantly different from the…

Breeding for disease resistance in Hevea spp. - status, potential threats, and possible strategies.

Treesearch

Chaendaekattu Narayanan; Kavitha K. Mydin

2012-01-01

Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex A. Juss.) Müll. Arg., a forest tree native to the tropical rain forests of Central and South America, has only been recently domesticated outside its natural range of distribution. Almost all of the commercially cultivated clones of H. brasiliensis represent a very narrow genetic base...

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

PubMed Central

Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium. PMID:29267357

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.

PubMed

Manchego, Carlos E; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

Electron energy distributions measured during electron beam/plasma interactions. [in E region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jost, R. J.; Anderson, H. R.; Mcgarity, J. O.

1980-01-01

In the large vacuum facility at the NASA-Johnson Space Center an electron beam was projected 20 m parallel to B from a gun with variable accelerating potential (1.0 to 2.5 kV) to an aluminum target. The ionospheric neutral pressure and field were approximated. Beam electron energy distributions were measured directly using an electrostatic deflection analyzer and indirectly with a detector that responded to the X-rays produced by electron impact on the target. At low currents the distribution is sharply peaked at the acceleration potential. At high currents a beam plasma discharge occurs and electrons are redistributed in energy so that the former energy peak broadens to 10-15 percent FWHM with a strongly enhanced low energy tail. At the 10% of maximum point the energy spectrum ranges from less than 1/2 to 1.2 times the gun energy. The effect is qualitatively the same at all pitch angles and locations sampled.

Optimum performance and potential flow field of hovering rotors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, J. C.; Sigman, R. K.

1975-01-01

Rotor and propeller performance and induced potential flowfields were studied on the basis of a rotating actuator disk concept, with special emphasis on rotors hovering out of ground effect. A new theory for the optimum performance of rotors hovering OGE is developed and presented. An extended theory for the optimum performance of rotors and propellers in axial motion is also presented. Numerical results are presented for the optimum distributions of blade-bound circulation together with axial inflow and ultimate wake velocities for the hovering rotor over the range of thrust coefficient of interest in rotorcraft applications. Shapes of the stream tubes and of the velocities in the slipstream are obtained, using available methods, for optimum and off-optimum circulation distributions for rotors hovering in and out of ground effect. A number of explicit formulae useful in computing rotor and propeller induced flows are presented for stream functions and velocities due to distributions of circular vortices over axi-symmetric surfaces.

The innovative concept of three-dimensional hybrid receptor modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stojić, A.; Stanišić Stojić, S.

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to improve the current understanding of air pollution transport processes at regional and long-range scale. For this purpose, three-dimensional (3D) potential source contribution function and concentration weighted trajectory models, as well as new hybrid receptor model, concentration weighted boundary layer (CWBL), which uses a two-dimensional grid and a planetary boundary layer height as a frame of reference, are presented. The refined approach to hybrid receptor modeling has two advantages. At first, it considers whether each trajectory endpoint meets the inclusion criteria based on planetary boundary layer height, which is expected to provide a more realistic representation of the spatial distribution of emission sources and pollutant transport pathways. Secondly, it includes pollutant time series preprocessing to make hybrid receptor models more applicable for suburban and urban locations. The 3D hybrid receptor models presented herein are designed to identify altitude distribution of potential sources, whereas CWBL can be used for analyzing the vertical distribution of pollutant concentrations along the transport pathway.

Combining a Climatic Niche Model of an Invasive Fungus with Its Host Species Distributions to Identify Risks to Natural Assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Morin, Louise; Leriche, Agathe; Anderson, Robert C.; Caley, Peter

2013-01-01

Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets. PMID:23704988

Field-aligned electrostatic potential differences on the Martian night side

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillis, Rob; Collinson, Glyn; Mitchell, David

2017-04-01

Field-aligned electrostatic potential differences on the Martian night side above 170 km can be inferred with the aid of a kinetic electron transport model and in a statistical sense, by energy-dependent angular shifts in electron loss cones measured in Mars orbit. Potentials between 170 km and 400 km derived from pitch angle distributions measured by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Magnetometer/ Electron Reflectometer experiment (MAG/ER) at 2 a.m. local time are typically small (-10 V to 10 V) but can reach magnitudes of >100 V. Geographically, the strongest negative potential differences (with mean values up to -50 V) are preferentially observed at the boundaries between open and closed strong magnetic field regions, while positive potential differences are preferentially observed further from open field lines. These characteristics may reflect current systems closing at high altitude through cross-tail currents and at low altitude in the conducting night side ionosphere. We will present a synthesis of potentials derived from pitch angle distributions measured by both MGS MAG/ER as mentioned above, and by the MAVEN Solar Wind Electron Analyzer (SWEA) collected at a range of local times and altitudes.

[Spatial distribution and potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Yalu River estuary wetland mudflat.

PubMed

Zhang, Chun Peng; Li, Fu Xiang

2016-09-01

Kriging interpolation analysis was conducted with ArcGIS to find out the distribution characteristics of heavy metals concentrations in the surface sediments of the coastal wetland mudflat on the Yalu River estuary, environmental risk index and Hakanson potential ecological risk index were used to assess their extents of pollution in this area.The concentrations of heavy metals in the surface sediments of the study area were at a relatively high level compared with the typical estuarine wetland. The concentration of heavy metals in the east was higher than that in the west, and in the human activity area, the concentration was higher. Cu was found to contribute the most to the pollution status based on environmental risk index method, while Hg and Cd produced the greatest potential ecological harm according to Hankanson Potential ecological risk index method. The average potential ecological risk index (RI) of the Yalu River estuary wetland was 189.30 (ranged from 93.65-507.20), suggesting a moderate ecological risk. However, the potential ecological risk was highest in the east and should be treated as the major heavy metal pollution prevention area in the future.

Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakanowatari, Takuya; Inoue, Jun; Sato, Kazutoshi; Bertino, Laurent; Xie, Jiping; Matsueda, Mio; Yamagami, Akio; Sugimura, Takeshi; Yabuki, Hironori; Otsuka, Natsuhiko

2018-06-01

Accelerated retreat of Arctic Ocean summertime sea ice has focused attention on the potential use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which sea ice thickness (SIT) information is crucial for safe maritime navigation. This study evaluated the medium-range (lead time below 10 days) forecast of SIT distribution in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) in early summer (June-July) based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system. A comparison of the operational model SIT data with reliable SIT estimates (hindcast, satellite and in situ data) showed that the TOPAZ4 reanalysis qualitatively reproduces the tongue-like distribution of SIT in ESS in early summer and the seasonal variations. Pattern correlation analysis of the SIT forecast data over 3 years (2014-2016) reveals that the early summer SIT distribution is accurately predicted for a lead time of up to 3 days, but that the prediction accuracy drops abruptly after the fourth day, which is related to a dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations. For longer lead times ( > 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which contributes to most of the remaining prediction accuracy. In July 2014, during which an ice-blocking incident occurred, relatively thick SIT ( ˜ 150 cm) was simulated over the ESS, which is consistent with the reduction in vessel speed. These results suggest that TOPAZ4 sea ice information has great potential for practical applications in summertime maritime navigation via the NSR.

Past climate changes explain the phylogeography of Vitellaria paradoxa over Africa

PubMed Central

Allal, F; Sanou, H; Millet, L; Vaillant, A; Camus-Kulandaivelu, L; Logossa, Z A; Lefèvre, F; Bouvet, J-M

2011-01-01

The evolution of the savanna biome has been deeply marked by repeated contraction/expansion phases due to climate perturbations during the Quaternary period. In this study, we investigated the impact of the last glacial maximum (LGM) on the present genetic pattern of Vitellaria paradoxa (shea tree), a major African savanna tree. A range-wide sampling of the species enabled us to sample 374 individuals from 71 populations distributed throughout sub-Sahelian Africa. Trees were genotyped using 3 chloroplasts and 12 nuclear microsatellites, and were sequenced for 2 polymorphic chloroplast intergenic spacers. Analyses of genetic diversity and structure were based on frequency-based and Bayesian methods. Potential distributions of V. paradoxa at present, during the LGM and the last interglacial period, were examined using DIVA-GIS ecological niche modelling (ENM). Haplotypic and allelic richness varied significantly across the range according to chloroplast and nuclear microsatellites, which pointed to higher diversity in West Africa. A high but contrasted level of differentiation was revealed among populations with a clear phylogeographic signal, with both nuclear (FST=0.21; RST=0.28; RST>RST (permuted)) and chloroplast simple sequence repeats (SSRs) (GST=0.81; NST=0.90; NST>NST (permuted)). We identified a strong geographically related structure separating western and eastern populations, and a substructure in the eastern part of the area consistent with subspecies distinction. Using ENM, we deduced that perturbations during the LGM fragmented the potential eastern distribution of shea tree, but not its distribution in West Africa. Our main results suggest that climate variations are the major factor explaining the genetic pattern of V. paradoxa. PMID:21407253

Social monogamy in wild owl monkeys (Aotus azarae) of Argentina: the potential influences of resource distribution and ranging patterns

PubMed Central

Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo

2017-01-01

Using published and new data from a population of monogamous owl monkeys in the Argentinean Chaco, I examine the hypothesis that social monogamy is a default social system imposed upon males because the spatial and/or temporal distribution of resources and females makes it difficult for a single male to defend access to more than one mate. First, I examine a set of predictions on ranging patterns, use of space, and population density. This first section is followed by a second one considering predictions related to the abundance and distribution of food. Finally, I conclude with a section attempting to link the ranging and ecological data to demographic and life-history parameters as proxies for reproductive success. In support of the hypothesis, owl monkey species do live at densities (7 to 64 ind/km2) that are predicted for monogamous species, but groups occupy home ranges and core areas that vary substantially in size, with pronounced overlap of home ranges, but not of core areas. There are strong indications that the availability of food sources in the core areas during the dry season may be of substantial importance for regulating social monogamy in owl monkeys. Finally, none of the proxies for the success of groups were strongly related to the size of the home range or core area. The results I present do not support conclusively any single explanation for the evolution of social monogamy in owl monkeys, but they help us to better understand how it may function. Moreover, the absence of conclusive answers linking ranging, ecology, and reproductive success with the evolution of social monogamy in primates, offer renewed motivation for continuing to explore the evolution of monogamy in owl monkeys. PMID:25931263

Social monogamy in wild owl monkeys (Aotus azarae) of Argentina: the potential influences of resource distribution and ranging patterns.

PubMed

Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo

2016-03-01

Using published and new data from a population of monogamous owl monkeys in the Argentinean Chaco, I examine the hypothesis that social monogamy is a default social system imposed upon males because the spatial and/or temporal distribution of resources and females makes it difficult for a single male to defend access to more than one mate. First, I examine a set of predictions on ranging patterns, use of space, and population density. This first section is followed by a second one considering predictions related to the abundance and distribution of food. Finally, I conclude with a section attempting to link the ranging and ecological data to demographic and life-history parameters as proxies for reproductive success. In support of the hypothesis, owl monkey species do live at densities (7-64 ind/km(2) ) that are predicted for monogamous species, but groups occupy home ranges and core areas that vary substantially in size, with pronounced overlap of home ranges, but not of core areas. There are strong indications that the availability of food sources in the core areas during the dry season may be of substantial importance for regulating social monogamy in owl monkeys. Finally, none of the proxies for the success of groups were strongly related to the size of the home range or core area. The results I present do not support conclusively any single explanation for the evolution of social monogamy in owl monkeys, but they help us to better understand how it may function. Moreover, the absence of conclusive answers linking ranging, ecology, and reproductive success with the evolution of social monogamy in primates, offer renewed motivation for continuing to explore the evolution of monogamy in owl monkeys. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Distribution characteristics and risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides in soil from Jiufeng Mountain Range in Fujian, China].

PubMed

Huang, Huan-Fang; Qi, Shi-Hua; Qu, Cheng-Kai; Li, Hui; Chen, Wen-Wen; Zhang, Li; Hu, Ting; Shi, Liao

2014-07-01

Totally 81 surface soil samples were collected from Jiufeng Mountain Range, and 8 compounds of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined by a Ni electron capture detector (GC-ECD) to investigate the distribution, composition, source and potential health risks of these compounds in the study region. The detection ratio of HCHs and DDTs' isomers ranged from 77.78% to 100.00%. Concentrations of HCHs and DDTs in surface soils ranged from 0.97 ng x g(-1) to 247.40 ng x g(-1) (mean 10.17 ng x g(-1)) and 0.01 ng x g(-1) to 384.75 ng x g(-1) (mean 18.91 ng x g(-1)), respectively. Compared with other regions, the pollution of OCPs in Jiufeng Mountain Range stayed at a low level. The residue level in different types of lands was in the order as: paddy field > vegetable land > tea land > woodland. Source analysis indicated that Lindane and dicofol might be used recently in this area. The incremental lifetime, cancer risks (ILCRs) of different age groups (children, youths, and adults) were all within the acceptable risk range of 10(-6) to 10(-4) recommended by USEPA for carcinogenic chemicals. The residue level of OCPs in soil may not cause cancer risk for local residents basically.

Host compatibility rather than vector–host-encounter rate determines the host range of avian Plasmodium parasites

PubMed Central

Medeiros, Matthew C. I.; Hamer, Gabriel L.; Ricklefs, Robert E.

2013-01-01

Blood-feeding arthropod vectors are responsible for transmitting many parasites between vertebrate hosts. While arthropod vectors often feed on limited subsets of potential host species, little is known about the extent to which this influences the distribution of vector-borne parasites in some systems. Here, we test the hypothesis that different vector species structure parasite–host relationships by restricting access of certain parasites to a subset of available hosts. Specifically, we investigate how the feeding patterns of Culex mosquito vectors relate to distributions of avian malaria parasites among hosts in suburban Chicago, IL, USA. We show that Plasmodium lineages, defined by cytochrome b haplotypes, are heterogeneously distributed across avian hosts. However, the feeding patterns of the dominant vectors (Culex restuans and Culex pipiens) are similar across these hosts, and do not explain the distributions of Plasmodium parasites. Phylogenetic similarity of avian hosts predicts similarity in their Plasmodium parasites. This effect was driven primarily by the general association of Plasmodium parasites with particular host superfamilies. Our results suggest that a mosquito-imposed encounter rate does not limit the distribution of avian Plasmodium parasites across hosts. This implies that compatibility between parasites and their avian hosts structure Plasmodium host range. PMID:23595266

Temporal and spatial distributions of cold-water corals in the Drake Passage: insights from the last 35,000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolin, Andrew R.; Robinson, Laura F.; Burke, Andrea; Waller, Rhian G.; Scanlon, Kathryn M.; Roberts, Mark L.; Auro, Maureen E.; van de Flierdt, Tina

2014-01-01

Scleractinian corals have a global distribution ranging from shallow tropical seas to the depths of the Southern Ocean. Although this distribution is indicative of the corals having a tolerance to a wide spectrum of environmental conditions, individual species seem to be restricted to a much narrower range of ecosystem variables. One way to ascertain the tolerances of corals, with particular focus on the potential impacts of changing climate, is to reconstruct their growth history across a range of environmental regimes. This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution of the solitary scleractinian corals Desmophyllum dianthus, Gardineria antarctica, Balanophyllia malouinensis, Caryophyllia spp. and Flabellum spp. from five sites in the Drake Passage which cross the major frontal zones. A rapid reconnaissance radiocarbon method was used to date more than 850 individual corals. Coupled with U-Th dating, an age range of present day back to more than 100 thousand years was established for corals in the region. Within this age range there are distinct changes in the temporal and spatial distributions of these corals, both with depth and latitude, and on millennial timescales. Two major patterns that emerge are: (1) D. dianthus populations show clear variability in their occurrence through time depending on the latitudinal position within the Drake Passage. North of the Subantarctic Front, D. dianthus first appears in the late deglaciation (~17,000 years ago) and persists to today. South of the Polar Front, in contrast, early deglacial periods, with a few modern occurrences. A seamount site between the two fronts exhibits characteristics similar to both the northern and southern sites. This shift across the frontal zones within one species cannot yet be fully explained, but it is likely to be linked to changes in surface productivity, subsurface oxygen concentrations, and carbonate saturation state. (2) at locations where multiple genera were dated, differences in age and depth distribution of the populations provide clear evidence that each genus has unique environmental requirements to sustain its population.

Temporal and spatial distributions of cold-water corals in the Drake Passage: Insights from the last 35,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margolin, Andrew R.; Robinson, Laura F.; Burke, Andrea; Waller, Rhian G.; Scanlon, Kathryn M.; Roberts, Mark L.; Auro, Maureen E.; van de Flierdt, Tina

2014-01-01

Scleractinian corals have a global distribution ranging from shallow tropical seas to the depths of the Southern Ocean. Although this distribution is indicative of the corals having a tolerance to a wide spectrum of environmental conditions, individual species seem to be restricted to a much narrower range of ecosystem variables. One way to ascertain the tolerances of corals, with particular focus on the potential impacts of changing climate, is to reconstruct their growth history across a range of environmental regimes. This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution of the solitary scleractinian corals Desmophyllum dianthus, Gardineria antarctica, Balanophyllia malouinensis, Caryophyllia spp. and Flabellum spp. from five sites in the Drake Passage which cross the major frontal zones. A rapid reconnaissance radiocarbon method was used to date more than 850 individual corals. Coupled with U-Th dating, an age range of present day back to more than 100 thousand years was established for corals in the region. Within this age range there are distinct changes in the temporal and spatial distributions of these corals, both with depth and latitude, and on millennial timescales. Two major patterns that emerge are: (1) D. dianthus populations show clear variability in their occurrence through time depending on the latitudinal position within the Drake Passage. North of the Subantarctic Front, D. dianthus first appears in the late deglaciation (~17,000 years ago) and persists to today. South of the Polar Front, in contrast, early deglacial periods, with a few modern occurrences. A seamount site between the two fronts exhibits characteristics similar to both the northern and southern sites. This shift across the frontal zones within one species cannot yet be fully explained, but it is likely to be linked to changes in surface productivity, subsurface oxygen concentrations, and carbonate saturation state. (2) at locations where multiple genera were dated, differences in age and depth distribution of the populations provide clear evidence that each genus has unique environmental requirements to sustain its population.

Exploring Instructive Physiological Signaling with the Bioelectric Tissue Simulation Engine

PubMed Central

Pietak, Alexis; Levin, Michael

2016-01-01

Bioelectric cell properties have been revealed as powerful targets for modulating stem cell function, regenerative response, developmental patterning, and tumor reprograming. Spatio-temporal distributions of endogenous resting potential, ion flows, and electric fields are influenced not only by the genome and external signals but also by their own intrinsic dynamics. Ion channels and electrical synapses (gap junctions) both determine, and are themselves gated by, cellular resting potential. Thus, the origin and progression of bioelectric patterns in multicellular tissues is complex, which hampers the rational control of voltage distributions for biomedical interventions. To improve understanding of these dynamics and facilitate the development of bioelectric pattern control strategies, we developed the BioElectric Tissue Simulation Engine (BETSE), a finite volume method multiphysics simulator, which predicts bioelectric patterns and their spatio-temporal dynamics by modeling ion channel and gap junction activity and tracking changes to the fundamental property of ion concentration. We validate performance of the simulator by matching experimentally obtained data on membrane permeability, ion concentration and resting potential to simulated values, and by demonstrating the expected outcomes for a range of well-known cases, such as predicting the correct transmembrane voltage changes for perturbation of single cell membrane states and environmental ion concentrations, in addition to the development of realistic transepithelial potentials and bioelectric wounding signals. In silico experiments reveal factors influencing transmembrane potential are significantly different in gap junction-networked cell clusters with tight junctions, and identify non-linear feedback mechanisms capable of generating strong, emergent, cluster-wide resting potential gradients. The BETSE platform will enable a deep understanding of local and long-range bioelectrical dynamics in tissues, and assist the development of specific interventions to achieve greater control of pattern during morphogenesis and remodeling. PMID:27458581

Modeling and CFD simulation of nutrient distribution in picoliter bioreactors for bacterial growth studies on single-cell level.

PubMed

Westerwalbesloh, Christoph; Grünberger, Alexander; Stute, Birgit; Weber, Sophie; Wiechert, Wolfgang; Kohlheyer, Dietrich; von Lieres, Eric

2015-11-07

A microfluidic device for microbial single-cell cultivation of bacteria was modeled and simulated using COMSOL Multiphysics. The liquid velocity field and the mass transfer within the supply channels and cultivation chambers were calculated to gain insight in the distribution of supplied nutrients and metabolic products secreted by the cultivated bacteria. The goal was to identify potential substrate limitations or product accumulations within the cultivation device. The metabolic uptake and production rates, colony size, and growth medium composition were varied covering a wide range of operating conditions. Simulations with glucose as substrate did not show limitations within the typically used concentration range, but for alternative substrates limitations could not be ruled out. This lays the foundation for further studies and the optimization of existing picoliter bioreactor systems.

Range estimates and habitat use of invasive Silver Carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix): Evidence of sedentary and mobile individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prechtel, Austin R.; Coulter, Alison A.; Etchison, Luke; Jackson, P. Ryan; Goforth, Reuben R.

2018-01-01

Unregulated rivers provide unobstructed corridors for the dispersal of both native and invasive species. We sought to evaluate range size and habitat use of an invasive species (Silver Carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) in an unimpounded river reach (Wabash River, IN), to provide insights into the dispersal of invasive species and their potential overlap with native species. We hypothesized that range size would increase with fish length, be similar among sexes, and vary annually while habitats used would be deeper, warmer, lower velocity, and of finer substrate. Silver Carp habitat use supported our hypotheses but range size did not vary with sex or length. 75% home range varied annually, suggesting that core areas occupied by individuals may change relative to climate-based factors (e.g., water levels), whereas broader estimates of range size remained constant across years. Ranges were often centered on landscape features such as tributaries and backwaters. Results of this study indicate habitat and landscape features as potential areas where Silver Carp impacts on native ecosystems may be the greatest. Observed distribution of range sizes indicates the presence of sedentary and mobile individuals within the population. Mobile individuals may be of particular importance as they drive the spread of the invasive species into new habitats.

An In Situ Method for Sizing Insoluble Residues in Precipitation and Other Aqueous Samples

PubMed Central

Axson, Jessica L.; Creamean, Jessie M.; Bondy, Amy L.; Capracotta, Sonja S.; Warner, Katy Y.; Ault, Andrew P.

2015-01-01

Particles are frequently incorporated into clouds or precipitation, influencing climate by acting as cloud condensation or ice nuclei, taking up coatings during cloud processing, and removing species through wet deposition. Many of these particles, particularly ice nuclei, can remain suspended within cloud droplets/crystals as insoluble residues. While previous studies have measured the soluble or bulk mass of species within clouds and precipitation, no studies to date have determined the number concentration and size distribution of insoluble residues in precipitation or cloud water using in situ methods. Herein, for the first time we demonstrate that Nanoparticle Tracking Analysis (NTA) is a powerful in situ method for determining the total number concentration, number size distribution, and surface area distribution of insoluble residues in precipitation, both of rain and melted snow. The method uses 500 μL or less of liquid sample and does not require sample modification. Number concentrations for the insoluble residues in aqueous precipitation samples ranged from 2.0–3.0(±0.3)×108 particles cm−3, while surface area ranged from 1.8(±0.7)–3.2(±1.0)×107 μm2 cm−3. Number size distributions peaked between 133–150 nm, with both single and multi-modal character, while surface area distributions peaked between 173–270 nm. Comparison with electron microscopy of particles up to 10 μm show that, by number, > 97% residues are <1 μm in diameter, the upper limit of the NTA. The range of concentration and distribution properties indicates that insoluble residue properties vary with ambient aerosol concentrations, cloud microphysics, and meteorological dynamics. NTA has great potential for studying the role that insoluble residues play in critical atmospheric processes. PMID:25705069

Biotic and abiotic influences on abundance and distribution of nonnative Chinook salmon and native ESA-listed steelhead in the Wind River, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jezorek, Ian G.; Connolly, Patrick J.

2015-01-01

Biotic and abiotic factors influence fish populations and distributions. Concerns have been raised about the influence of hatchery fish on wild populations. Carson National Fish Hatchery produces spring Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Wind River, Washington, and some spawn in the river. Managers were concerned that Chinook salmon could negatively affect wild steelhead O. mykiss and that a self-sustaining population of Chinook salmon may develop. Our objectives were to assess: 1) the distribution and populations of juvenile spring Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead in the upper Wind River; 2) the influence of stream flow and of each population on the other; and 3) if Chinook salmon populations were self-sustaining. We snorkeled to determine distribution and abundance. Flow in the fall influenced upstream distribution and abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon. Juvenile Chinook salmon densities were consistently low (range 0.0 to 5.7 fish 100 m-2) and not influenced by number of spawners, winter flow magnitude, or steelhead abundance. Juvenile steelhead were distributed through the study section each year. Age-0 and age-1 steelhead densities (age-0 range: 0.04 to 37.0 fish 100 m-2; age-1 range: 0.02 to 6.21 fish 100 m-2) were consistently higher than for juvenile Chinook salmon. Steelhead spawner abundance positively influenced juvenile steelhead abundance. During this study, Chinook salmon in the Wind River appear to have had little effect on steelhead. Low juvenile Chinook salmon abundance and a lack of a spawner-to-juvenile relationship suggest Chinook salmon are not self-sustaining and potential for such a population is low under current conditions.

Ecological niche modelling of potential West Nile virus vector mosquito species and their geographical association with equine epizootics in Italy.

PubMed

Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Mulatti, Paolo; Severini, Francesco; Boccolini, Daniela; Romi, Roberto; Bongiorno, Gioia; Khoury, Cristina; Bianchi, Riccardo; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Patregnani, Tommaso; Bonfanti, Lebana; Rezza, Giovanni; Capelli, Gioia; Busani, Luca

2014-01-01

In Italy, West Nile virus (WNV) equine outbreaks have occurred annually since 2008. Characterizing WNV vector habitat requirements allows for the identification of areas at risk of viral amplification and transmission. Maxent-based ecological niche models were developed using literature records of 13 potential WNV Italian vector mosquito species to predict their habitat suitability range and to investigate possible geographical associations with WNV equine outbreak occurrence in Italy from 2008 to 2010. The contribution of different environmental variables to the niche models was also assessed. Suitable habitats for Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus, and Anopheles maculipennis were widely distributed; Culex modestus, Ochlerotatus geniculatus, Ochlerotatus caspius, Coquillettidia richiardii, Aedes vexans, and Anopheles plumbeus were concentrated in north-central Italy; Aedes cinereus, Culex theileri, Ochlerotatus dorsalis, and Culiseta longiareolata were restricted to coastal/southern areas. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation variables showed the highest predictive power. Host population and landscape variables provided minor contributions. WNV equine outbreaks had a significantly higher probability to occur in habitats suitable for Cx. modestus and Cx. pipiens, providing circumstantial evidence that the potential distribution of these two species coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in equines.

Optimal updating magnitude in adaptive flat-distribution sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cheng; Drake, Justin A.; Ma, Jianpeng; Pettitt, B. Montgomery

2017-11-01

We present a study on the optimization of the updating magnitude for a class of free energy methods based on flat-distribution sampling, including the Wang-Landau (WL) algorithm and metadynamics. These methods rely on adaptive construction of a bias potential that offsets the potential of mean force by histogram-based updates. The convergence of the bias potential can be improved by decreasing the updating magnitude with an optimal schedule. We show that while the asymptotically optimal schedule for the single-bin updating scheme (commonly used in the WL algorithm) is given by the known inverse-time formula, that for the Gaussian updating scheme (commonly used in metadynamics) is often more complex. We further show that the single-bin updating scheme is optimal for very long simulations, and it can be generalized to a class of bandpass updating schemes that are similarly optimal. These bandpass updating schemes target only a few long-range distribution modes and their optimal schedule is also given by the inverse-time formula. Constructed from orthogonal polynomials, the bandpass updating schemes generalize the WL and Langfeld-Lucini-Rago algorithms as an automatic parameter tuning scheme for umbrella sampling.

Optimal updating magnitude in adaptive flat-distribution sampling.

PubMed

Zhang, Cheng; Drake, Justin A; Ma, Jianpeng; Pettitt, B Montgomery

2017-11-07

We present a study on the optimization of the updating magnitude for a class of free energy methods based on flat-distribution sampling, including the Wang-Landau (WL) algorithm and metadynamics. These methods rely on adaptive construction of a bias potential that offsets the potential of mean force by histogram-based updates. The convergence of the bias potential can be improved by decreasing the updating magnitude with an optimal schedule. We show that while the asymptotically optimal schedule for the single-bin updating scheme (commonly used in the WL algorithm) is given by the known inverse-time formula, that for the Gaussian updating scheme (commonly used in metadynamics) is often more complex. We further show that the single-bin updating scheme is optimal for very long simulations, and it can be generalized to a class of bandpass updating schemes that are similarly optimal. These bandpass updating schemes target only a few long-range distribution modes and their optimal schedule is also given by the inverse-time formula. Constructed from orthogonal polynomials, the bandpass updating schemes generalize the WL and Langfeld-Lucini-Rago algorithms as an automatic parameter tuning scheme for umbrella sampling.

Dynamics of action potential initiation in the GABAergic thalamic reticular nucleus in vivo.

PubMed

Muñoz, Fabián; Fuentealba, Pablo

2012-01-01

Understanding the neural mechanisms of action potential generation is critical to establish the way neural circuits generate and coordinate activity. Accordingly, we investigated the dynamics of action potential initiation in the GABAergic thalamic reticular nucleus (TRN) using in vivo intracellular recordings in cats in order to preserve anatomically-intact axo-dendritic distributions and naturally-occurring spatiotemporal patterns of synaptic activity in this structure that regulates the thalamic relay to neocortex. We found a wide operational range of voltage thresholds for action potentials, mostly due to intrinsic voltage-gated conductances and not synaptic activity driven by network oscillations. Varying levels of synchronous synaptic inputs produced fast rates of membrane potential depolarization preceding the action potential onset that were associated with lower thresholds and increased excitability, consistent with TRN neurons performing as coincidence detectors. On the other hand the presence of action potentials preceding any given spike was associated with more depolarized thresholds. The phase-plane trajectory of the action potential showed somato-dendritic propagation, but no obvious axon initial segment component, prominent in other neuronal classes and allegedly responsible for the high onset speed. Overall, our results suggest that TRN neurons could flexibly integrate synaptic inputs to discharge action potentials over wide voltage ranges, and perform as coincidence detectors and temporal integrators, supported by a dynamic action potential threshold.

Evolution of the climatic tolerance and postglacial range changes of the most primitive orchids (Apostasioideae) within Sundaland, Wallacea and Sahul.

PubMed

Kolanowska, Marta; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Kras, Marta; Dudek, Magdalena; Konowalik, Kamil

2016-01-01

The location of possible glacial refugia of six Apostasioideae representatives is estimated based on ecological niche modeling analysis. The distribution of their suitable niches during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is compared with their current potential and documented geographical ranges. The climatic factors limiting the studied species occurrences are evaluated and the niche overlap between the studied orchids is assessed and discussed. The predicted niche occupancy profiles and reconstruction of ancestral climatic tolerances suggest high level of phylogenetic niche conservatism within Apostasioideae.

Rapid Debris Analysis Project Task 3 Final Report - Sensitivity of Fallout to Source Parameters, Near-Detonation Environment Material Properties, Topography, and Meteorology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, Peter

2014-01-24

This report describes the sensitivity of predicted nuclear fallout to a variety of model input parameters, including yield, height of burst, particle and activity size distribution parameters, wind speed, wind direction, topography, and precipitation. We investigate sensitivity over a wide but plausible range of model input parameters. In addition, we investigate a specific example with a relatively narrow range to illustrate the potential for evaluating uncertainties in predictions when there are more precise constraints on model parameters.

Effect of temperature on the phenology of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera, Crambidae); simulation and visualization of the potential future distribution of C. partellus in Africa under warmer temperatures through the development of life-table parameters.

PubMed

Khadioli, N; Tonnang, Z E H; Muchugu, E; Ong'amo, G; Achia, T; Kipchirchir, I; Kroschel, J; Le Ru, B

2014-12-01

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35 °C), relative humidity of 75±5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35 °C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38 °C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in East Africa.

Interference from Proteins and Surfactants on Particle Size Distributions Measured by Nanoparticle Tracking Analysis (NTA).

PubMed

Bai, Kelvin; Barnett, Gregory V; Kar, Sambit R; Das, Tapan K

2017-04-01

Characterization of submicron protein particles continues to be challenging despite active developments in the field. NTA is a submicron particle enumeration technique, which optically tracks the light scattering signal from suspended particles undergoing Brownian motion. The submicron particle size range NTA can monitor in common protein formulations is not well established. We conducted a comprehensive investigation with several protein formulations along with corresponding placebos using NTA to determine submicron particle size distributions and shed light on potential non-particle origin of size distribution in the range of approximately 50-300 nm. NTA and DLS are performed on polystyrene size standards as well as protein and placebo formulations. Protein formulations filtered through a 20 nm filter, with and without polysorbate-80, show NTA particle counts. As such, particle counts above 20 nm are not expected in these solutions. Several other systems including positive and negative controls were studied using NTA and DLS. These apparent particles measured by NTA are not observed in DLS measurements and may not correspond to real particles. The intent of this article is to raise awareness about the need to interpret particle counts and size distribution from NTA with caution.

Spatiotemporal distribution and population characteristicsof a nonnative lake trout population, with implications for suppression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dux, A.M.; Guy, C.S.; Fredenberg, W.A.

2011-01-01

We evaluated the distribution and population characteristics of nonnative lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake McDonald,Glacier National Park,Montana, to provide biological data in support of a potential suppression program. Using ultrasonic telemetry, we identified spatial and temporal distribution patterns by tracking 36 adult lake trout (1,137 relocations). Lake trout rarely occupied depths greater than 30 m and were commonly located in the upper hypolimnion directly below the metalimnion during thermal stratification. After breakdown of themetalimnion in the fall, lake trout primarily aggregated at two spawning sites. Lake trout population characteristics were similar to those of populations within the species' native range. However, lake trout in Lake McDonald exhibited lower total annual mortality (13.2%), latermaturity (age 12 formales, age 15 for females), lower body condition, and slower growth than are typically observed in the southern extent of their range. These results will be useful in determining where to target suppression activities (e.g., gillnetting, trap-netting, or electrofishing) and in evaluating responses to suppression efforts. Similar evaluations of lake trout distribution patterns and population characteristics are recommended to increase the likelihood that suppression programs will succeed. ?? American Fisheries Society 2011.

A Winter Distribution Model for Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a Conservation Tool for a Threatened Migratory Songbird

PubMed Central

McFarland, Kent P.; Rimmer, Christopher C.; Goetz, James E.; Aubry, Yves; Wunderle, Joseph M.; Sutton, Anne; Townsend, Jason M.; Sosa, Alejandro Llanes; Kirkconnell, Arturo

2013-01-01

Conservation planning and implementation require identifying pertinent habitats and locations where protection and management may improve viability of targeted species. The winter range of Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a threatened Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, is restricted to the Greater Antilles. We analyzed winter records from the mid-1970s to 2009 to quantitatively evaluate winter distribution and habitat selection. Additionally, we conducted targeted surveys in Jamaica (n = 433), Cuba (n = 363), Dominican Republic (n = 1,000), Haiti (n = 131) and Puerto Rico (n = 242) yielding 179 sites with thrush presence. We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles in Maxent version 3.3.1. using environmental predictors represented in 30 arc second study area rasters. These included nine landform, land cover and climatic variables that were thought a priori to have potentially high predictive power. We used the average training gain from ten model runs to select the best subset of predictors. Total winter precipitation, aspect and land cover, particularly broadleaf forests, emerged as important variables. A five-variable model that contained land cover, winter precipitation, aspect, slope, and elevation was the most parsimonious and not significantly different than the models with more variables. We used the best fitting model to depict potential winter habitat. Using the 10 percentile threshold (>0.25), we estimated winter habitat to cover 33,170 km2, nearly 10% of the study area. The Dominican Republic contained half of all potential habitat (51%), followed by Cuba (15.1%), Jamaica (13.5%), Haiti (10.6%), and Puerto Rico (9.9%). Nearly one-third of the range was found to be in protected areas. By providing the first detailed predictive map of Bicknell’s Thrush winter distribution, our study provides a useful tool to prioritize and direct conservation planning for this and other wet, broadleaf forest specialists in the Greater Antilles. PMID:23326554

Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi-scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartley, Stephen; Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Lester, Philip J.

2010-01-01

Mechanistic models for predicting species’ distribution patterns present particular advantages and challenges relative to models developed from statistical correlations between distribution and climate. They can be especially useful for predicting the range of invasive species whose distribution has not yet reached equilibrium. Here, we illustrate how a physiological model of development for the invasive Argentine ant can be connected to differences in micro-site suitability, population dynamics and climatic gradients; processes operating at quite different spatial scales. Our study is located in the subalpine shrubland of Haleakala National Park, Hawaii, where the spread of Argentine ants Linepithema humile has been documented for the past twenty-five years. We report four main results. First, at a microsite level, the accumulation of degree-days recorded in potential ant nest sites under bare ground or rocks was significantly greater than under a groundcover of grassy vegetation. Second, annual degree-days measured where population boundaries have not expanded (456-521 degree-days), were just above the developmental requirements identified from earlier laboratory studies (445 degree-days above 15.98C). Third, rates of population expansion showed a strong linear relationship with annual degree-days. Finally, an empirical relationship between soil degree-days and climate variables mapped at a broader scale predicts the potential for future range expansion of Argentine ants at Haleakala, particularly to the west of the lower colony and the east of the upper colony. Variation in the availability of suitable microsites, driven by changes in vegetation cover and ultimately climate, provide a hierarchical understanding of the distribution of Argentine ants close to their cold-wet limit of climatic tolerances. We conclude that the integration of physiology, population dynamics and climate mapping holds much promise for making more robust predictions about the potential spread of invasive species.

Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2011-12-01

As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP1-03: Luminescence Imaging of Water During Proton Beam Irradiation for Range Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamamoto, S; Komori, M; Toshito, T

Purpose: Since proton therapy has the ability to selectively deliver a dose to a target tumor, the dose distribution should be accurately measured. A precise and efficient method to evaluate the dose distribution is desired. We found that luminescence was emitted from water during proton irradiation and thought this phenomenon could be used for estimating the dose distribution. Methods: For this purpose, we placed water phantoms set on a table with a spot-scanning proton-therapy system, and luminescence images of these phantoms were measured with a high-sensitivity cooled charge coupled device (CCD) camera during proton-beam irradiation. We also conducted the imagingmore » of phantoms of pure-water, fluorescein solution and acrylic block. We made three dimensional images from the projection data. Results: The luminescence images of water phantoms during the proton-beam irradiations showed clear Bragg peaks, and the measured proton ranges from the images were almost the same as those obtained with an ionization chamber. The image of the pure-water phantom also showed almost the same distribution as the tap-water phantom, indicating that the luminescence image was not related to impurities in the water. The luminescence image of fluorescein solution had ∼3 times higher intensity than water, with the same proton range as that of water. The luminescence image of the acrylic phantom had 14.5% shorter proton range than that of water; the proton range in the acrylic phantom was relatively matched with the calculated value. The luminescence images of the tap-water phantom during proton irradiation could be obtained in less than 2 sec. Three dimensional images were successfully obtained which have more quantitative information. Conclusion: Luminescence imaging during proton-beam irradiation has the potential to be a new method for range estimations in proton therapy.« less

Altitudinal vs Latitudinal Climactic Drivers: A Comparison of a Relict Picea and Abies Forest in the Southern Appalachians versus the Hemi-Boreal Transition Zone off Southern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, A.; Lafon, C. W.

2015-12-01

Identification of biotic and abiotic determinants of tree species range limits is critical for understanding the effects of climate change on species distributions. Upward shifts of species distributions in montane areas have been widely reported but there have been few reports of latitudinal range retractions. Previous studies have indicated that southern latitudinal limits of a species range are dictated by biotic factors such as competition while others have suggested that abiotic factors, such as temperature, dictate these limits. We investigated the potential climatic gradients at the southern latitudinal limit of the Spruce (Picea) and Fir (Abies) species that dominate the Canadian boreal forest community as well as relict boreal forests containing similar species found in the high elevation areas of the Southern Appalachians. Existing research has suggested that relict ecosystems are more sensitive to climate change and can be indicative of future changes at latitudinal range limits. Expanding on this literature, we hypothesized that we would see similar gradients in climatic variables at the southern latitudinal limit of the Canadian boreal forest and those in the relict boreal forests southern Appalachians acting as controlling factors of these species distributions. We used forty years of climate data from weather stations along the southern edge of the boreal forest in the Canadian Shield provinces, species distribution data from the Canadian National Forest Inventory, (CNFI) geospatial data from the National Park Service (NPS), and historical weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to perform our analysis. Our results indicate different climate variables act as controls of warm edge range limits of the Canadian boreal forest than those of the relict boreal forest of the southern Appalachians. However, we believe range retractions of the relict forest may be indicative of a more gradual response of similar species across a latitudinal gradient.

Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

PubMed

Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

2016-01-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Declines in moose population density at Isle Royle National Park, MI, USA and accompanied changes in landscape patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Pastor, J.

2009-01-01

Ungulate herbivores create patterns of forage availability, plant species composition, and soil fertility as they range across large landscapes and consume large quantities of plant material. Over time, herbivore populations fluctuate, producing great potential for spatio-temporal landscape dynamics. In this study, we extend the spatial and temporal extent of a long-term investigation of the relationship of landscape patterns to moose foraging behavior at Isle Royale National Park, MI. We examined how patterns of browse availability and consumption, plant basal area, and soil fertility changed during a recent decline in the moose population. We used geostatistics to examine changes in the nature of spatial patterns in two valleys over 18 years and across short-range and long-range distance scales. Landscape patterns of available and consumed browse changed from either repeated patches or randomly distributed patches in 1988-1992 to random point distributions by 2007 after a recent record high peak followed by a rapid decline in the moose population. Patterns of available and consumed browse became decoupled during the moose population low, which is in contrast to coupled patterns during the earlier high moose population. Distributions of plant basal area and soil nitrogen availability also switched from repeated patches to randomly distributed patches in one valley and to random point distributions in the other valley. Rapid declines in moose population density may release vegetation and soil fertility from browsing pressure and in turn create random landscape patterns. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

PubMed Central

Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

PubMed

Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

Ecogeography of teosinte

PubMed Central

Sánchez González, José de Jesús; García, Guillermo Medina; Ojeda, Gabriela Ramírez; Larios, Lino De la Cruz; Holland, James Brendan; Medrano, Roberto Miranda; García Romero, Giovanni Emmanuel

2018-01-01

Adaptation of crops to climate change has motivated an increasing interest in the potential value of novel traits from wild species; maize wild relatives, the teosintes, harbor traits that may be useful to maize breeding. To study the ecogeographic distribution of teosinte we constructed a robust database of 2363 teosinte occurrences from published sources for the period 1842–2016. A geographical information system integrating 216 environmental variables was created for Mexico and Central America and was used to characterize the environment of each teosinte occurrence site. The natural geographic distribution of teosinte extends from the Western Sierra Madre of the State of Chihuahua, Mexico to the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, including practically the entire western part of Mesoamerica. The Mexican annuals Zea mays ssp. parviglumis and Zea mays ssp. mexicana show a wide distribution in Mexico, while Zea diploperennis, Zea luxurians, Zea perennis, Zea mays ssp. huehuetenangensis, Zea vespertilio and Zea nicaraguensis had more restricted and distinct ranges, representing less than 20% of the total occurrences. Only 11.2% of teosinte populations are found in Protected Natural Areas in Mexico and Central America. Ecogeographical analysis showed that teosinte can cope with extreme levels of precipitation and temperatures during growing season. Modelling teosinte geographic distribution demonstrated congruence between actual and potential distributions; however, some areas with no occurrences appear to be within the range of adaptation of teosintes. Field surveys should be prioritized to such regions to accelerate the discovery of unknown populations. Potential areas for teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana races Chalco, Nobogame, and Durango, Zea mays ssp. huehuetenangensis, Zea luxurians, Zea diploperennis and Zea nicaraguensis are geographically separated; however, partial overlapping occurs between Zea mays ssp. parviglumis and Zea perennis, between Zea mays ssp. parviglumis and Zea diploperennis, and between Zea mays ssp. mexicana race Chalco and Zea mays ssp. mexicana race Central Plateau. Assessing priority of collecting for conservation showed that permanent monitoring programs and in-situ conservation projects with participation of local farmer communities are critically needed; Zea mays ssp. mexicana (races Durango and Nobogame), Zea luxurians, Zea diploperennis, Zea perennis and Zea vespertilio should be considered as the highest priority taxa. PMID:29451888

A second new species of ice crawlers from China (Insecta: Grylloblattodea), with thorax evolution and the prediction of potential distribution.

PubMed

Bai, Ming; Jarvis, Karl; Wang, Shu-Yong; Song, Ke-Qing; Wang, Yan-Ping; Wang, Zhi-Liang; Li, Wen-Zhu; Wang, Wei; Yang, Xing-Ke

2010-09-22

Modern grylloblattids are one of the least diverse of the modern insect orders. The thorax changes in morphology might be associated with the changes of the function of the forelegs, wing loss, changes in behavior and adaptation to habitat. As temperature is the main barrier for migration of modern grylloblattids, the range of each species is extremely limited. The potential distribution areas of grylloblattids remain unclear. A second new species of ice crawlers (Insecta: Grylloblattodea), Grylloblattella cheni Bai, Wang et Yang sp. nov., is described from China. The distribution map and key to species of Grylloblattella are given. A comparison of the thorax of extant and extinct Grylloblattodea is presented, with an emphasis on the pronotum using geometric morphometric analysis, which may reflect thorax adaptation and the evolution of Grylloblattodea. Potential global distribution of grylloblattids is inferred. Highly diversified pronota of extinct Grylloblattodea may reflect diverse habitats and niches. The relatively homogeneous pronota of modern grylloblattids might be explained by two hypotheses: synapomorphy or convergent evolution. Most fossils of Grylloblattodea contain an obviously longer meso- and metathorax than prothorax. The length of the meso- and metathorax of modern grylloblattids is normally shorter than the prothorax. This may be associated with the wing loss, which is accompanied by muscle reduction and changes to the thoracic skeleton system. Threats to grylloblattids and several conservation comments are also provided.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

PubMed

Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

2016-01-01

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

PubMed Central

Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara

2016-01-01

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded. PMID:27547522

Resolving the multipolar scattering modes of a submicron particle using parametric indirect microscopic imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullah, Kaleem; Liu, Xuefeng; Krasnok, Alex; Habib, Muhammad; Song, Li; Garcia-Camara, Braulio

2018-07-01

In this work, we show the spatial distribution of the scattered electromagnetic field of dielectric particles by using a new super-resolution method based on polarization modulation. Applying this technique, we were able to resolve the multipolar distribution of a Cu2O particle with a radius of 450 nm. In addition, FDTD and Mie simulations have been carried out to validate and confirm the experimental results. The results are helpful to understand the resonant modes of dielectric submicron particles which have a broad range of potential applications, such as all-optical devices or nanoantennas.

Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America.

PubMed

Lopes, Taise M; Bailly, Dayani; Almeida, Bia A; Santos, Natália C L; Gimenez, Barbara C G; Landgraf, Guilherme O; Sales, Paulo C L; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Cassemiro, Fernanda A S; Rangel, Thiago F; Diniz-Filho, José A F; Agostinho, Angelo A; Gomes, Luiz C

2017-01-01

Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i) the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.

New vegetation type map of India prepared using satellite remote sensing: Comparison with global vegetation maps and utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, P. S.; Behera, M. D.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Roy, Arijit; Singh, Sarnam; Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Jha, C. S.; Sudhakar, S.; Joshi, P. K.; Reddy, Ch. Sudhakar; Gupta, Stutee; Pujar, Girish; Dutt, C. B. S.; Srivastava, V. K.; Porwal, M. C.; Tripathi, Poonam; Singh, J. S.; Chitale, Vishwas; Skidmore, A. K.; Rajshekhar, G.; Kushwaha, Deepak; Karnatak, Harish; Saran, Sameer; Giriraj, A.; Padalia, Hitendra; Kale, Manish; Nandy, Subrato; Jeganathan, C.; Singh, C. P.; Biradar, C. M.; Pattanaik, Chiranjibi; Singh, D. K.; Devagiri, G. M.; Talukdar, Gautam; Panigrahy, Rabindra K.; Singh, Harnam; Sharma, J. R.; Haridasan, K.; Trivedi, Shivam; Singh, K. P.; Kannan, L.; Daniel, M.; Misra, M. K.; Niphadkar, Madhura; Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Prasad, Nupoor; Tripathi, O. P.; Prasad, P. Rama Chandra; Dash, Pushpa; Qureshi, Qamer; Tripathi, S. K.; Ramesh, B. R.; Gowda, Balakrishnan; Tomar, Sanjay; Romshoo, Shakil; Giriraj, Shilpa; Ravan, Shirish A.; Behera, Soumit Kumar; Paul, Subrato; Das, Ashesh Kumar; Ranganath, B. K.; Singh, T. P.; Sahu, T. R.; Shankar, Uma; Menon, A. R. R.; Srivastava, Gaurav; Neeti; Sharma, Subrat; Mohapatra, U. B.; Peddi, Ashok; Rashid, Humayun; Salroo, Irfan; Krishna, P. Hari; Hajra, P. K.; Vergheese, A. O.; Matin, Shafique; Chaudhary, Swapnil A.; Ghosh, Sonali; Lakshmi, Udaya; Rawat, Deepshikha; Ambastha, Kalpana; Malik, Akhtar H.; Devi, B. S. S.; Gowda, Balakrishna; Sharma, K. C.; Mukharjee, Prashant; Sharma, Ajay; Davidar, Priya; Raju, R. R. Venkata; Katewa, S. S.; Kant, Shashi; Raju, Vatsavaya S.; Uniyal, B. P.; Debnath, Bijan; Rout, D. K.; Thapa, Rajesh; Joseph, Shijo; Chhetri, Pradeep; Ramachandran, Reshma M.

2015-07-01

A seamless vegetation type map of India (scale 1: 50,000) prepared using medium-resolution IRS LISS-III images is presented. The map was created using an on-screen visual interpretation technique and has an accuracy of 90%, as assessed using 15,565 ground control points. India has hitherto been using potential vegetation/forest type map prepared by Champion and Seth in 1968. We characterized and mapped further the vegetation type distribution in the country in terms of occurrence and distribution, area occupancy, percentage of protected area (PA) covered by each vegetation type, range of elevation, mean annual temperature and precipitation over the past 100 years. A remote sensing-amenable hierarchical classification scheme that accommodates natural and semi-natural systems was conceptualized, and the natural vegetation was classified into forests, scrub/shrub lands and grasslands on the basis of extent of vegetation cover. We discuss the distribution and potential utility of the vegetation type map in a broad range of ecological, climatic and conservation applications from global, national and local perspectives. We used 15,565 ground control points to assess the accuracy of products available globally (i.e., GlobCover, Holdridge's life zone map and potential natural vegetation (PNV) maps). Hence we recommend that the map prepared herein be used widely. This vegetation type map is the most comprehensive one developed for India so far. It was prepared using 23.5 m seasonal satellite remote sensing data, field samples and information relating to the biogeography, climate and soil. The digital map is now available through a web portal (http://bis.iirs.gov.in).

Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

PubMed

Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

2017-07-01

The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America

PubMed Central

Lopes, Taise M.; Bailly, Dayani; Almeida, Bia A.; Santos, Natália C. L.; Gimenez, Barbara C. G.; Landgraf, Guilherme O.; Sales, Paulo C. L.; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Cassemiro, Fernanda A. S.; Rangel, Thiago F.; Diniz-Filho, José A. F.; Agostinho, Angelo A.; Gomes, Luiz C.

2017-01-01

Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i) the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions. PMID:28654663

Distribution, fate and risk assessment of PAHs in water and sediments from an aquaculture- and shipping-impacted subtropical lake, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Qingfei; Jeppesen, Erik; Gu, Xiaohong; Mao, Zhigang; Chen, Huihui

2018-06-01

The spatial-temporal distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), their source, and potential health risks were determined in overlying water and surface sediments from Chinese Lake Guchenghu, adjacent commercial mitten crab ponds and the connected Wushen Canal to assess the contamination profile of the area. The total PAHs concentrations in sediment and water were 86.7-1790 ng g -1 dry weight (dw) and 184-365 ng L -1 in summer and 184-3140 ng g -1 dw and 410-1160 ng L -1 in winter. Two- and 3-ring PAHs were the predominant compounds in water, while PAHs with 4-6 rings dominated in the sediment at both upstream and downstream sites. PAHs concentrations in water and sediment correlated significantly. Diagnostic ratios and positive matrix factorization (PMF) analyses indicated a strong influence of pyrogenic sources, principally biomass combustion and vehicle emission, on the concentrations of PAHs. The distribution, source identification, and mean effects range median quotients (mERMQ) analyses suggested that the most contaminated area was located downstream and upstream of the Wushen Canal, followed by Lake Guchenghu and a commercial crab pond area. From an ecological point of view, PAHs posed a potential risk to drinking water sources as the concentrations exceeded the guideline value of 0.05 μg L -1 . The risk posed by sediment PAHs appeared to be low except for the downstream sites, which showed a low to medium ecotoxicological risk. The total incremental lifetime cancer risks ranged between 10 -7 and 10 -5 , indicating a potential health risk for the local population when exposed to sediment from the area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping black panthers: Macroecological modeling of melanism in leopards (Panthera pardus).

PubMed

da Silva, Lucas G; Kawanishi, Kae; Henschel, Philipp; Kittle, Andrew; Sanei, Arezoo; Reebin, Alexander; Miquelle, Dale; Stein, Andrew B; Watson, Anjali; Kekule, Laurence Bruce; Machado, Ricardo B; Eizirik, Eduardo

2017-01-01

The geographic distribution and habitat association of most mammalian polymorphic phenotypes are still poorly known, hampering assessments of their adaptive significance. Even in the case of the black panther, an iconic melanistic variant of the leopard (Panthera pardus), no map exists describing its distribution. We constructed a large database of verified records sampled across the species' range, and used it to map the geographic occurrence of melanism. We then estimated the potential distribution of melanistic and non-melanistic leopards using niche-modeling algorithms. The overall frequency of melanism was ca. 11%, with a significantly non-random spatial distribution. Distinct habitat types presented significantly different frequencies of melanism, which increased in Asian moist forests and approached zero across most open/dry biomes. Niche modeling indicated that the potential distributions of the two phenotypes were distinct, with significant differences in habitat suitability and rejection of niche equivalency between them. We conclude that melanism in leopards is strongly affected by natural selection, likely driven by efficacy of camouflage and/or thermoregulation in different habitats, along with an effect of moisture that goes beyond its influence on vegetation type. Our results support classical hypotheses of adaptive coloration in animals (e.g. Gloger's rule), and open up new avenues for in-depth evolutionary analyses of melanism in mammals.

Mapping black panthers: Macroecological modeling of melanism in leopards (Panthera pardus)

PubMed Central

da Silva, Lucas G.; Kawanishi, Kae; Henschel, Philipp; Kittle, Andrew; Sanei, Arezoo; Reebin, Alexander; Miquelle, Dale; Stein, Andrew B.; Watson, Anjali; Kekule, Laurence Bruce; Machado, Ricardo B.

2017-01-01

The geographic distribution and habitat association of most mammalian polymorphic phenotypes are still poorly known, hampering assessments of their adaptive significance. Even in the case of the black panther, an iconic melanistic variant of the leopard (Panthera pardus), no map exists describing its distribution. We constructed a large database of verified records sampled across the species’ range, and used it to map the geographic occurrence of melanism. We then estimated the potential distribution of melanistic and non-melanistic leopards using niche-modeling algorithms. The overall frequency of melanism was ca. 11%, with a significantly non-random spatial distribution. Distinct habitat types presented significantly different frequencies of melanism, which increased in Asian moist forests and approached zero across most open/dry biomes. Niche modeling indicated that the potential distributions of the two phenotypes were distinct, with significant differences in habitat suitability and rejection of niche equivalency between them. We conclude that melanism in leopards is strongly affected by natural selection, likely driven by efficacy of camouflage and/or thermoregulation in different habitats, along with an effect of moisture that goes beyond its influence on vegetation type. Our results support classical hypotheses of adaptive coloration in animals (e.g. Gloger’s rule), and open up new avenues for in-depth evolutionary analyses of melanism in mammals. PMID:28379961

An Investigation into the Potential Benefits of Distributed Electric Propulsion on Small UAVs at Low Reynolds Numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baris, Engin

Distributed electric propulsion systems benefit from the inherent scale independence of electric propulsion. This property allows the designer to place multiple small electric motors along the wing of an aircraft instead of using a single or several internal combustion motors with gear boxes or other power train components. Aircraft operating at low Reynolds numbers are ideal candidates for benefiting from increased local flow velocities as provided by distributed propulsion systems. In this study, a distributed electric propulsion system made up of eight motor/propellers was integrated into the leading edge of a small fixed wing-body model to investigate the expected improvements on the aerodynamics available to small UAVs operating at low Reynolds numbers. Wind tunnel tests featuring a Design of Experiments (DOE) methodology were used for aerodynamic characterization. Experiments were performed in four modes: all-propellers-on, wing-tip-propellers-alone-on, wing-alone mode, and two-inboard-propellers-on-alone mode. In addition, the all-propeller-on, wing-alone, and a single-tractor configuration were analyzed using VSPAERO, a vortex lattice code, to make comparisons between these different configurations. Results show that the distributed propulsion system has higher normal force, endurance, and range features, despite a potential weight penalty.

Distribution of Steps with Finite-Range Interactions: Analytic Approximations and Numerical Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GonzáLez, Diego Luis; Jaramillo, Diego Felipe; TéLlez, Gabriel; Einstein, T. L.

2013-03-01

While most Monte Carlo simulations assume only nearest-neighbor steps interact elastically, most analytic frameworks (especially the generalized Wigner distribution) posit that each step elastically repels all others. In addition to the elastic repulsions, we allow for possible surface-state-mediated interactions. We investigate analytically and numerically how next-nearest neighbor (NNN) interactions and, more generally, interactions out to q'th nearest neighbor alter the form of the terrace-width distribution and of pair correlation functions (i.e. the sum over n'th neighbor distribution functions, which we investigated recently.[2] For physically plausible interactions, we find modest changes when NNN interactions are included and generally negligible changes when more distant interactions are allowed. We discuss methods for extracting from simulated experimental data the characteristic scale-setting terms in assumed potential forms.

Graphene: A partially ordered non-periodic solid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Dongshan; Wang, Feng, E-mail: fengwang@uark.edu

2014-10-14

Molecular dynamics simulations were performed to study the structural features of graphene over a wide range of temperatures from 50 to 4000 K using the PPBE-G potential [D. Wei, Y. Song, and F. Wang, J. Chem. Phys. 134, 184704 (2011)]. This potential was developed by force matching the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) exchange correlation functional and has been validated previously to provide accurate potential energy surface for graphene at temperatures as high as 3000 K. Simulations with the PPBE‑G potential are the best available approximation to a direct Car-Parrinello Molecular Dynamics study of graphene. One advantage of the PBE-G potential is to allowmore » large simulation boxes to be modeled efficiently so that properties showing strong finite size effects can be studied. Our simulation box contains more than 600 000 C atoms and is one of the largest graphene boxes ever modeled. With the PPBE-G potential, the thermal-expansion coefficient is negative up to 4000 K. With a large box and an accurate potential, the critical exponent for the scaling properties associated with the normal-normal and height-height correlation functions was confirmed to be 0.85. This exponent remains constant up to 4000 K suggesting graphene to be in the deeply cooled regime even close to the experimental melting temperature. The reduced peak heights in the radial distribution function of graphene show an inverse power law dependence to distance, which indicates that a macroscopic graphene sheet will lose long-range crystalline order as predicted by the Mermin-Wagner instability. Although graphene loses long-range translational order, it retains long range orientational order as indicated by its orientational correlation function; graphene is thus partially ordered but not periodic.« less

Depth distribution of microbial production and oxidation of methane in northern boreal peatlands.

PubMed

Sundh, I; Nilsson, M; Granberg, G; Svensson, B H

1994-05-01

The depth distributions of anaerobic microbial methane production and potential aerobic microbial methane oxidation were assessed at several sites in both Sphagnum- and sedge-dominated boreal peatlands in Sweden, and compared with net methane emissions from the same sites. Production and oxidation of methane were measured in peat slurries, and emissions were measured with the closed-chamber technique. Over all eleven sites sampled, production was, on average, highest 12 cm below the depth of the average water table. On the other hand, highest potential oxidation of methane coincided with the depth of the average water table. The integrated production rate in the 0-60 cm interval ranged between 0.05 and 1.7 g CH4 m (-2) day(-) and was negatively correlated with the depth of the average water table (linear regression: r (2) = 0.50, P = 0.015). The depth-integrated potential CH4-oxidation rate ranged between 3.0 and 22.1 g CH4 m(-2) day(-1) and was unrelated to the depth of the average water table. A larger fraction of the methane was oxidized at sites with low average water tables; hence, our results show that low net emission rates in these environments are caused not only by lower methane production rates, but also by conditions more favorable for the development of CH4-oxidizing bacteria in these environments.

Universality and chaoticity in ultracold K+KRb chemical reactions

DOE PAGES

Croft, J. F. E.; Makrides, C.; Li, M.; ...

2017-07-19

A fundamental question in the study of chemical reactions is how reactions proceed at a collision energy close to absolute zero. This question is no longer hypothetical: quantum degenerate gases of atoms and molecules can now be created at temperatures lower than a few tens of nanokelvin. Here we consider the benchmark ultracold reaction between, the most-celebrated ultracold molecule, KRb and K. We map out an accurate ab initio ground-state potential energy surface of the K 2Rb complex in full dimensionality and report numerically-exact quantum-mechanical reaction dynamics. The distribution of rotationally resolved rates is shown to be Poissonian. An analysismore » of the hyperspherical adiabatic potential curves explains this statistical character revealing a chaotic distribution for the short-range collision complex that plays a key role in governing the reaction outcome.« less

Stretchable Conductive Elastomers for Soldier Biosensing Applications: Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

public release; distribution is unlimited. 7 the electrical impedance tunability that we required. Representative data for resistance versus volume...Technology Directorate’s (VTD) electric field mediated morphing wing research effort. Fig. 5 Resistance values of EEG electrodes as a function of...extend the resistance range of the developed polymer EEG electrodes to potentially provide insight into defining an optimum electrical performance for

Current and potential use of broadleaf herbs for reestablishing native communities

Treesearch

Scott C. Walker; Nancy L. Shaw

2005-01-01

Use of forbs for revegetation in the Intermountain West has been problematic due to the large number of species and lack of research data. Some forbs are found in numerous plant communities and distributed over wide geographic ranges while others are more narrowly adapted. Seed sources for revegetation use may be selected from species and ecotypes indigenous to the...

Introduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drysdall, A.R.; Ramsay, C.R.; Stoeser, D.B.

1986-01-01

Felsic plutonic rocks ranging from dioritic to granitic in composition and from 900 to 550 Ma in age are a major component of the Arabian Shield. These rocks and the potential for associated mineralization have been extensively investigated by the Saudi Arabian Deputy Ministry for Mineral Resources during the past decade in particular. This volume describes the multidisciplinary approach which has been developed, and summarizes results. The classification, distribution, petrology, mineralogy and structure of the felsic plutonic rocks, petrogenetic and metallogenetic concepts and representative examples of mineralization are described. It is concluded that the potential for additional mineral resources is substantial. ?? 1986.

Habitat Suitability Model for the Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota.

PubMed

Johnson, T L; Bjork, J K H; Neitzel, D F; Dorr, F M; Schiffman, E K; Eisen, R J

2016-05-01

Ixodes scapularis Say, the black-legged tick, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of several pathogens causing human diseases including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Over the past two decades, I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence as well as geographic distribution. Lyme disease exists in two major foci in the United States, one encompassing northeastern states and the other in the Upper Midwest. Minnesota represents a state with an appreciable increase in counties reporting I. scapularis-borne illnesses, suggesting geographic expansion of vector populations in recent years. Recent tick distribution records support this assumption. Here, we used those records to create a fine resolution, subcounty-level distribution model for I. scapularis using variable response curves in addition to tests of variable importance. The model identified 19% of Minnesota as potentially suitable for establishment of the tick and indicated with high accuracy (AUC = 0.863) that the distribution is driven by land cover type, summer precipitation, maximum summer temperatures, and annual temperature variation. We provide updated records of established populations near the northwestern species range limit and present a model that increases our understanding of the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

Description of a 20 kilohertz power distribution system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, I. G.

1986-01-01

A single phase, 440 VRMS, 20 kHz power distribution system with a regulated sinusoidal wave form is discussed. A single phase power system minimizes the wiring, sensing, and control complexities required in a multi-sourced redundantly distributed power system. The single phase addresses only the distribution links multiphase lower frequency inputs and outputs accommodation techniques are described. While the 440 V operating potential was initially selected for aircraft operating below 50,000 ft, this potential also appears suitable for space power systems. This voltage choice recognizes a reasonable upper limit for semiconductor ratings, yet will direct synthesis of 220 V, 3 power. A 20 kHz operating frequency was selected to be above the range of audibility, minimize the weight of reactive components, yet allow the construction of single power stages of 25 to 30 kW. The regulated sinusoidal distribution system has several advantages. With a regulated voltage, most ac/dc conversions involve rather simple transformer rectifier applications. A sinusoidal distribution system, when used in conjunction with zero crossing switching, represents a minimal source of EMI. The present state of 20 kHz power technology includes computer controls of voltage and/or frequency, low inductance cable, current limiting circuit protection, bi-directional power flow, and motor/generator operating using standard induction machines. A status update and description of each of these items and their significance is presented.

Description of a 20 Kilohertz power distribution system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, I. G.

1986-01-01

A single phase, 440 VRMS, 20 kHz power distribution system with a regulated sinusoidal wave form is discussed. A single phase power system minimizes the wiring, sensing, and control complexities required in a multi-sourced redundantly distributed power system. The single phase addresses only the distribution link; mulitphase lower frequency inputs and outputs accommodation techniques are described. While the 440 V operating potential was initially selected for aircraft operating below 50,000 ft, this potential also appears suitable for space power systems. This voltage choice recognizes a reasonable upper limit for semiconductor ratings, yet will direct synthesis of 220 V, 3 power. A 20 kHz operating frequency was selected to be above the range of audibility, minimize the weight of reactive components, yet allow the construction of single power stages of 25 to 30 kW. The regulated sinusoidal distribution system has several advantages. With a regulated voltage, most ac/dc conversions involve rather simple transformer rectifier applications. A sinusoidal distribution system, when used in conjunction with zero crossing switching, represents a minimal source of EMI. The present state of 20 kHz power technology includes computer controls of voltage and/or frequency, low inductance cable, current limiting circuit protection, bi-directional power flow, and motor/generator operating using standard induction machines. A status update and description of each of these items and their significance is presented.

Codling Moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Establishment in China: Stages of Invasion and Potential Future Distribution.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongyu; Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G

2017-07-01

Codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) is an internal feeding pest of apples and can cause substantial economic losses to fruit growers due to larval feeding which in turn degrades fruit quality and can result in complete crop loss if left uncontrolled. Although this pest originally developed in central Asia, it was not known to occur in China until 1953. For the first three decades the spread of codling moth within China was slow. Within the last three decades, addition of new commercial apple orchards and improved transportation, this pest has spread to over 131 counties in seven provinces in China. We developed regional (China) and global ecological niche models using MaxEnt to identify areas at highest potential risk of codling moth establishment and spread. Our objectives were to 1) predict the potential distribution of codling moth in China, 2) identify the important environmental factors associated with codling moth distribution in China, and 3) identify the different stages of invasion of codling moth in China. Human footprint, annual temperature range, precipitation of wettest quarter, and degree days ≥10 °C were the most important predictors associated with codling moth distribution. Our analysis identified areas where codling moth has the potential to establish, and mapped the different stages of invasion (i.e., potential for population stabilization, colonization, adaptation, and sink) of codling moth in China. Our results can be used in effective monitoring and management to stem the spread of codling moth in China. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

How the oxygen isotope ratio of rain water influences the isotope ratio of chicken eggshell carbonate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Gregory; Grimes, Stephen

2015-04-01

The stable oxygen isotope ratio of chicken eggshell carbonate was analysed from chicken eggs laid under free range, and organic farming regimes from across the UK. The eggshell carbonate oxygen isotope data shows a clear depletion in delta18O distribution from the southwest to the northeast. Although consistently offset by around 1 permil, the same isotopic distribution as that seen in eggshell carbonate is observed in the delta18O ratio of rainfall and groundwater from across the UK. This distribution is related to the Rayleigh distillation of rainfall driven by westerly winds across the UK landmass. The clear relationship observed between eggshell delta18O values and that of rainwater presumably reflects the nature of free range chickens which must be drinking locally derived rainwater and supplementing their diet and water intake with locally derived food. These results suggest that the oxygen isotope value of chicken eggshells can be used as a forensic tool to identify the locality that free range and organic eggs were laid within the UK. Furthermore, if suitable material is preserved in the archaeological and geological record then such a relationship can potentially be used to establish the oxygen isotope value of rainwater from which ancient and / or ancestral birds lived.

Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watling, James I.; Brandt, Laura A.; Bucklin, David N.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie; Speroterra, Carolina

2015-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in basic and applied ecology, making it important to understand sources and magnitudes of uncertainty in SDM performance and predictions. We analyzed SDM performance and partitioned variance among prediction maps for 15 rare vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using all possible combinations of seven potential sources of uncertainty in SDMs: algorithms, climate datasets, model domain, species presences, variable collinearity, CO2 emissions scenarios, and general circulation models. The choice of modeling algorithm was the greatest source of uncertainty in SDM performance and prediction maps, with some additional variation in performance associated with the comprehensiveness of the species presences used for modeling. Other sources of uncertainty that have received attention in the SDM literature such as variable collinearity and model domain contributed little to differences in SDM performance or predictions in this study. Predictions from different algorithms tended to be more variable at northern range margins for species with more northern distributions, which may complicate conservation planning at the leading edge of species' geographic ranges. The clear message emerging from this work is that researchers should use multiple algorithms for modeling rather than relying on predictions from a single algorithm, invest resources in compiling a comprehensive set of species presences, and explicitly evaluate uncertainty in SDM predictions at leading range margins.

On the Debye-Hückel effect of electric screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, L. M. B. C.; Lau, F. J. P.

2014-07-01

The paper considers non-linear self-consistent electric potential equation (Sec. I), due to a cloud made of a single species of electric charges, satisfying a Boltzmann distribution law (Sec. II). Exact solutions are obtained in a simple logarithmic form, in three cases: (Sec. III) spherical radial symmetry; (Sec. IV) plane parallel symmetry; (Sec. V) a special case of azimuthal-cylindrical symmetry. All these solutions, and their transformations (Sec. VI), involve the Debye-Hückel radius; the latter was originally defined from a solution of the linearized self-consistent potential equation. Using an exact solution of the self-consistent potential equation, the distance at which the potential vanishes differs from the Debye-Hückel radius by a factor of √2 . The preceding (Secs. II-VI) simple logarithmic exact solutions of the self-consistent potential equations involve no arbitrary constants, and thus are special or singular integrals not the general integral. The general solution of the self-consistent potential equation is obtained in the plane parallel case (Sec. VII), and it involves two arbitrary constants that can be reduced to one via a translation (Sec. VIII). The plots of dimensionless potential (Figure 1), electric field (Figure 2), charge density (Figure 3), and total charge between ζ and infinity (Figure 4), versus distance normalized to Debye-Hückel radius ζ ≡ z/a, show that (Sec. IX) there is a continuum of solutions, ranging from a charge distribution concentrated inside the Debye-Hückel radius to one spread-out beyond it. The latter case leads to the limiting case of logarithmic potential, and stronger electric field; the former case, of very concentrated charge distribution, leads to a fratricide effect and weaker electric field.

Distributed agile software development for the SKA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicenec, Andreas; Parsons, Rebecca; Kitaeff, Slava; Vinsen, Kevin; Wu, Chen; Nelson, Paul; Reed, David

2012-09-01

The SKA software will most probably be developed by many groups distributed across the globe and coming from dierent backgrounds, like industries and research institutions. The SKA software subsystems will have to cover a very wide range of dierent areas, but still they have to react and work together like a single system to achieve the scientic goals and satisfy the challenging data ow requirements. Designing and developing such a system in a distributed fashion requires proper tools and the setup of an environment to allow for ecient detection and tracking of interface and integration issues in particular in a timely way. Agile development can provide much faster feedback mechanisms and also much tighter collaboration between the customer (scientist) and the developer. Continuous integration and continuous deployment on the other hand can provide much faster feedback of integration issues from the system level to the subsystem developers. This paper describes the results obtained from trialing a potential SKA development environment based on existing science software development processes like ALMA, the expected distribution of the groups potentially involved in the SKA development and experience gained in the development of large scale commercial software projects.

Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Jeffrey D.; Moses, Alissa; Burcsu, Theresa

2010-05-01

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.

Molecular Markers Reveal Limited Population Genetic Structure in a North American Corvid, Clark’s Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana)

PubMed Central

Dohms, Kimberly M.; Burg, Theresa M.

2013-01-01

The genetic impact of barriers and Pleistocene glaciations on high latitude resident species has not been widely investigated. The Clark’s nutcracker is an endemic North American corvid closely associated with Pinus-dominated forests. The nutcracker’s encompasses known barriers to dispersal for other species, and glaciated and unglaciated areas. Clark’s nutcrackers also irruptively disperse long distances in search of pine seed crops, creating the potential for gene flow among populations. Using the highly variable mitochondrial DNA control region, seven microsatellite loci, and species distribution modeling, we examined the effects of glaciations and dispersal barriers on population genetic patterns and population structure of nutcrackers. We sequenced 900 bp of mitochondrial control region for 169 individuals from 15 populations and analysed seven polymorphic microsatellite loci for 13 populations across the Clark’s nutcracker range. We used species distribution modeling and a range of phylogeographic analyses to examine evolutionary history. Clark’s nutcracker populations are not highly differentiated throughout their range, suggesting high levels of gene flow among populations, though we did find some evidence of isolation by distance and peripheral isolation. Our analyses suggested expansion from a single refugium after the last glacial maximum, but patterns of genetic diversity and paleodistribution modeling of suitable habitat were inconclusive as to the location of this refugium. Potential barriers to dispersal (e.g. mountain ranges) do not appear to restrict gene flow in Clark’s nutcracker, and postglacial expansion likely occurred quickly from a single refugium located south of the ice sheets. PMID:24223982

Role of the 3He optical model potential ambiguity in the distorted-wave Born approximation description of the 58Ni(3He, d)59Cu reaction at 130 MeV incident energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djaloeis, A.; Alderliesten, C.; Bojowald, J.; Mayer-Böricke, C.; Oelert, W.; Turek, P.

1983-04-01

Angular distributions of 58Ni(3He, d)59Cu transitions leading to the (0.0 MeV, 32-), (0.91 MeV, 52-), and (3.04 MeV, 92+) states in 59Cu have been measured at an incident energy of 130 MeV. The experimental data have been used to study mainly the role of the 3He optical model potential ambiguity in the distorted-wave Born approximation description of the reaction. Satisfactory fits to the data are obtained using a deep helion potential in standard local zero-range calculations. For a shallow 3He potential a comparable description can be achieved if the depth of the real part of the deuteron optical potential is reduced considerably, and nonlocality as well as finite-range corrections are taken into account. Under these conditions, the use of a 3He potential constructed according to the Johnson-Soper prescription yields similar results. NUCLEAR REACTIONS 58Ni (3He, d)59Cu, E=130 MeV; measured dσ(θ)dΩ. Enriched target; DWBA analysis; discussed reaction mechanism.

Ant Diversity and Distribution along Elevation Gradients in the Australian Wet Tropics: The Importance of Seasonal Moisture Stability.

PubMed

Nowrouzi, Somayeh; Andersen, Alan N; Macfadyen, Sarina; Staunton, Kyran M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Robson, Simon K A

2016-01-01

The threat of anthropogenic climate change has seen a renewed focus on understanding contemporary patterns of species distribution. This is especially the case for the biota of tropical mountains, because tropical species often have particularly narrow elevational ranges and there are high levels of short-range endemism. Here we describe geographic patterns of ant diversity and distribution in the World Heritage-listed rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT), revealing seasonal moisture stability to be an important environmental correlate of elevational patterns of species composition. We sampled ants in leaf litter, on the litter surface and on tree trunks at 26 sites from six subregions spanning five degrees of latitude and elevation ranges from 100-1,300 m. A total of 296 species from 63 genera were recorded. Species richness showed a slight peak at mid elevations, and did not vary significantly with latitude. Species composition varied substantially between subregions, and many species have highly localised distributions. There was very marked species turnover with elevation, with a particularly striking compositional disjunction between 600 m and 800 m at each subregion. This disjunction coincides with a strong environmental threshold of seasonal stability in moisture associated with cloud 'stripping'. Our study therefore provides further support for climatic stability as a potential mechanism underlying patterns of diversity. The average height of orographic cloud layers is predicted to rise under global warming, and associated shifts in seasonal moisture stability may exacerbate biotic change caused by rising temperature alone.

The impacts of climate change on the wintering distribution of an endangered migratory bird.

PubMed

Hu, Junhua; Hu, Huijian; Jiang, Zhigang

2010-10-01

There is now ample evidence of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the distribution and abundance of species. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an endangered migratory species and endemic to East Asia. Using a maximum entropy approach, we predicted the potential wintering distribution for spoonbills and modeled the effects of future climate change. Elevation, human influence index and precipitation during the coldest quarter contributed most to model development. Five regions, including western Taiwan, scattered locations from eastern coastal to central mainland China, coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea, northeastern coastal areas of Vietnam and sites along the coast of Japan, were found to have a high probability of presence and showed good agreement with historical records. Assuming no limits to the spread of this species, the wintering range is predicted to increase somewhat under a changing climate. However, three currently highly suitable regions (northeastern Vietnam, Taiwan and coastal areas surrounding the South China Sea) may face strong reductions in range by 2080. We also found that the center of the predicted range of spoonbills will undergo a latitudinal shift northwards by as much as 240, 450, and 600 km by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. Our findings suggest that species distribution modeling can inform the current and future management of the black-faced spoonbill throughout Asia. It is clear that a strong international strategy is needed to conserve spoonbill populations under a changing climate.

Impact of land reclamation and agricultural water regime on the distribution and conservation status of the endangered Dryophytes suweonensis

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyungmin; Heo, Kyongman

2017-01-01

Knowledge about the distribution and habitat preferences of a species is critical for its conservation. The Suweon Treefrog (Dryophytes suweonensis) is an endangered species endemic to the Republic of Korea. We conducted surveys from 2014 to 2016 at 890 potentially suitable sites across the entire range of the species in South Korea. We then assessed whether D. suweonensis was found in the current and ancestral predicted ranges, reclaimed and protected areas, and how the presence of agricultural floodwater affected its occurrence. Our results describe a 120 km increase in the southernmost known distribution of the species, and the absence of the species at lower latitudes. We then demonstrate a putative constriction on the species ancestral range due to urban encroachment, and provide evidence for a significant increase in its coastal range due to the colonisation of reclaimed land by the species. In addition, we demonstrate that D. suweonensis is present in rice fields that are flooded with water originating from rivers as opposed to being present in rice fields that are irrigated from underground water. Finally, the non-overlap of protected areas and the occurrence of the species shows that only the edge of a single site where D. suweonensis occurs is legally protected. Based on our results and the literature, we suggest the design of a site fitting all the ecological requirements of the species, and suggest the use of such sites to prevent further erosion in the range of D. suweonensis. PMID:29018610

Hematologic and serum biochemical reference intervals for free-ranging common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) and variation in the distributions of clinicopathologic values related to geographic sampling site.

PubMed

Schwacke, Lori H; Hall, Ailsa J; Townsend, Forrest I; Wells, Randall S; Hansen, Larry J; Hohn, Aleta A; Bossart, Gregory D; Fair, Patricia A; Rowles, Teresa K

2009-08-01

To develop robust reference intervals for hematologic and serum biochemical variables by use of data derived from free-ranging bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) and examine potential variation in distributions of clinicopathologic values related to sampling sites' geographic locations. 255 free-ranging bottlenose dolphins. Data from samples collected during multiple bottlenose dolphin capture-release projects conducted at 4 southeastern US coastal locations in 2000 through 2006 were combined to determine reference intervals for 52 clinicopathologic variables. A nonparametric bootstrap approach was applied to estimate 95th percentiles and associated 90% confidence intervals; the need for partitioning by length and sex classes was determined by testing for differences in estimated thresholds with a bootstrap method. When appropriate, quantile regression was used to determine continuous functions for 95th percentiles dependent on length. The proportion of out-of-range samples for all clinicopathologic measurements was examined for each geographic site, and multivariate ANOVA was applied to further explore variation in leukocyte subgroups. A need for partitioning by length and sex classes was indicated for many clinicopathologic variables. For each geographic site, few significant deviations from expected number of out-of-range samples were detected. Although mean leukocyte counts did not vary among sites, differences in the mean counts for leukocyte subgroups were identified. Although differences in the centrality of distributions for some variables were detected, the 95th percentiles estimated from the pooled data were robust and applicable across geographic sites. The derived reference intervals provide critical information for conducting bottlenose dolphin population health studies.

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neal, Donald M.; Matthews, William T.; Vangel, Mark G.

1992-01-01

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Species Distribution Modelling of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-endemic regions of Pakistan.

PubMed

Fatima, Syeda Hira; Atif, Salman; Rasheed, Syed Basit; Zaidi, Farrah; Hussain, Ejaz

2016-03-01

Statistical tools are effectively used to determine the distribution of mosquitoes and to make ecological inferences about the vector-borne disease dynamics. In this study, we utilised species distribution models to understand spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-prevalent regions of Pakistan, Lahore and Swat. Species distribution models can potentially indicate the probability of suitability of Ae. aegypti once introduced to new regions like Swat, where invasion of this species is a recent phenomenon. The distribution of Ae. aegypti was determined by applying the MaxEnt algorithm on a set of potential environmental factors and species sample records. The ecological dependency of species on each environmental variable was analysed using response curves. We quantified the statistical performance of the models based on accuracy assessment and spatial predictions. Our results suggest that Ae. aegypti is widely distributed in Lahore. Human population density and urban infrastructure are primarily responsible for greater probability of mosquito occurrence in this region. In Swat, Ae. aegypti has clumped distribution, where urban patches provide refuge to the species in an otherwise hostile heterogeneous environment and road networks are assumed to have facilitated in passive-mediated dispersal of species. In Pakistan, Ae. aegypti is expanding its range northwards; this could be associated with rapid urbanisation, trade and travel. The main implication of this expansion is that more people are at risk of dengue fever in the northern highlands of Pakistan. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bona-fide method for the determination of short range order and transport properties in a ferro-aluminosilicate slag

PubMed Central

Karalis, Konstantinos T.; Dellis, Dimitrios; Antipas, Georgios S. E.; Xenidis, Anthimos

2016-01-01

The thermodynamics, structural and transport properties (density, melting point, heat capacity, thermal expansion coefficient, viscosity and electrical conductivity) of a ferro-aluminosilicate slag have been studied in the solid and liquid state (1273–2273 K) using molecular dynamics. The simulations were based on a Buckingham-type potential, which was extended here, to account for the presence of Cr and Cu. The potential was optimized by fitting pair distribution function partials to values determined by Reverse Monte Carlo modelling of X-ray and neutron diffraction experiments. The resulting short range order features and ring statistics were in tight agreement with experimental data and created consensus for the accurate prediction of transport properties. Accordingly, calculations yielded rational values both for the average heat capacity, equal to 1668.58 J/(kg·K), and for the viscosity, in the range of 4.09–87.64 cP. The potential was consistent in predicting accurate values for mass density (i.e. 2961.50 kg/m3 vs. an experimental value of 2940 kg/m3) and for electrical conductivity (5.3–233 S/m within a temperature range of 1273.15–2273.15 K). PMID:27455915

Combining Inferential and Deductive Approaches to Estimate the Potential Geographical Range of the Invasive Plant Pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum

PubMed Central

Ireland, Kylie B.; Hardy, Giles E. St. J.; Kriticos, Darren J.

2013-01-01

Phytophthora ramorum, an invasive plant pathogen of unknown origin, causes considerable and widespread damage in plant industries and natural ecosystems of the USA and Europe. Estimating the potential geographical range of P. ramorum has been complicated by a lack of biological and geographical data with which to calibrate climatic models. Previous attempts to do so, using either invaded range data or surrogate species approaches, have delivered varying results. A simulation model was developed using CLIMEX to estimate the global climate suitability patterns for establishment of P. ramorum. Growth requirements and stress response parameters were derived from ecophysiological laboratory observations and site-level transmission and disease factors related to climate data in the field. Geographical distribution data from the USA (California and Oregon) and Norway were reserved from model-fitting and used to validate the models. The model suggests that the invasion of P. ramorum in both North America and Europe is still in its infancy and that it is presently occupying a small fraction of its potential range. Phytophthora ramorum appears to be climatically suited to large areas of Africa, Australasia and South America, where it could cause biodiversity and economic losses in plant industries and natural ecosystems with susceptible hosts if introduced. PMID:23667628

On the generality of a climate-mediated shift in the distribution of the American pika (Ochotona princeps).

PubMed

Erb, Liesl P; Ray, Chris; Guralnick, Robert

2011-09-01

Alpine species are among those most threatened by climatic shifts due to their physiological and geographic constraints. The American pika (Ochotona princeps), a small mammal found in mountainous, rocky habitats throughout much of western North America, has experienced recent population extirpations in the Great Basin linked to climatic drivers. It remains unclear whether these patterns of climate-related loss extend to other portions of the species' range. We investigated the distribution of the American pika and the climatic processes shaping this distribution within the Southern Rocky Mountain region. Results from a survey of 69 sites historically occupied by pikas indicate that only four populations have been extirpated within this region over the past few decades. Despite relatively few extirpations, low annual precipitation is implicated as a limiting factor for pika persistence in the Southern Rockies. Extirpations occurred only at sites that were consistently dry over the last century. While there was no climate change signal in our results, these data provide valuable insight into the potential future effects of climate change on O. princeps throughout its range.

Entrapped by the uneven central and Middle Eastern terrains: Genetic status of populations of Hirudo orientalis (Annelida, Clitellata, Hirudinida) with a phylogenetic review of the genus Hirudo.

PubMed

Darabi-Darestani, Kaveh; Sari, Alireza; Sarafrazi, Alimorad; Utevsky, Serge

2018-04-01

Phylogenetic relationships between species of the genus Hirudo plus genetic variation in the entire distribution range of Hirudo orientalis were investigated based on mitochondrial (COI and 12S rDNA) and nuclear (ITS1+5.8S+ITS2) genome regions. The sister relationship of Hirudo orientalis and H. medicinalis was revealed with a high posterior probability. A broad and patchy distribution with minor genetic differences was observed in populations of H. orientalis along the central and Middle Eastern parts of Asia. The known distribution range occurred in topographically heterogeneous landscapes around the Caspian Sea. The demographic analysis suggests the selection of the COI locus under unfavourable respiratory conditions, but population size expansion cannot be fully rejected. The genetic variation trend indicated northward dispersal. Higher haplotype diversity in the South Caspian region potentially suggests the area as a historical refugium for the species. The vast dispersal is assumed to occur after the Pleistocene glaciations via vertebrate hosts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distribution Atlas of Proliferating Bone Marrow in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Measured by FLT-PET/CT Imaging, With Potential Applicability in Radiation Therapy Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, Belinda A., E-mail: Belinda.Campbell@petermac.org; Callahan, Jason; Bressel, Mathias

Purpose: Proliferating bone marrow is exquisitely sensitive to ionizing radiation. Knowledge of its distribution could improve radiation therapy planning to minimize unnecessary marrow exposure and avoid consequential prolonged myelosuppression. [18F]-Fluoro-3-deoxy-3-L-fluorothymidine (FLT)–positron emission tomography (PET) is a novel imaging modality that provides detailed quantitative images of proliferating tissues, including bone marrow. We used FLT-PET imaging in cancer patients to produce an atlas of marrow distribution with potential clinical utility. Methods and Materials: The FLT-PET and fused CT scans of eligible patients with non-small cell lung cancer (no distant metastases, no prior cytotoxic exposure, no hematologic disorders) were reviewed. The proportions of skeletalmore » FLT activity in 10 predefined bony regions were determined and compared according to age, sex, and recent smoking status. Results: Fifty-one patients were studied: 67% male; median age 68 (range, 31-87) years; 8% never smokers; 70% no smoking in the preceding 3 months. Significant differences in marrow distribution occurred between sex and age groups. No effect was detected from smoking in the preceding 3 months. Using the mean percentages of FLT uptake per body region, we created an atlas of the distribution of functional bone marrow in 4 subgroups defined by sex and age. Conclusions: This atlas has potential utility for estimating the distribution of active marrow in adult cancer patients to guide radiation therapy planning. However, because of interindividual variation it should be used with caution when radiation therapy risks ablating large proportions of active marrow; in such cases, individual FLT-PET scans may be required.« less

Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions

PubMed Central

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2014-01-01

A statistical analysis reveals projections of consistently larger increases in the highest percentiles of summer and winter temperature maxima and minima versus the respective lowest percentiles, resulting in a wider range of temperature extremes in the future. These asymmetric changes in tail distributions of temperature appear robust when explored through 14 CMIP5 climate models and three reanalysis datasets. Asymmetry of projected increases in temperature extremes generalizes widely. Magnitude of the projected asymmetry depends significantly on region, season, land-ocean contrast, and climate model variability as well as whether the extremes of consideration are seasonal minima or maxima events. An assessment of potential physical mechanisms provides support for asymmetric tail increases and hence wider temperature extremes ranges, especially for northern winter extremes. These results offer statistically grounded perspectives on projected changes in the IPCC-recommended extremes indices relevant for impacts and adaptation studies. PMID:25073751

Potential effects of global warming on the distribution of a temperate univoltine insect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Hurd, L.E.

1993-06-01

Poleward migration to remain within temperature tolerance ranges as the earth warms poses a problem for species with limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperate univoltine insect, Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae), is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before killing frost in the fall; too many allow egg hatch prior to killing frost. We combined field observations of dispersal ability with laboratory measurements of the relationship between temperature and maturation rate, and applied these to a global warming model to predict the effect of climate change on regional distribution of this insect by 2100more » A.D. Based on the simplified biological assumptions of our model, T, sinensis would be reduced to local populations in the northern portions and higher elevations of its present broadly contiguous range, and species with similar life histories may face regional or total extinction.« less

Pollution patterns and characteristics of perfluorinated compounds in surface water adjacent potential industrial emission categories of Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Chai, Jian-Fei; Lei, Peng-Hui; Xia, Xiao-Yu; Xu, Gang; Wang, De-Jin; Sun, Rui; Gu, Jian-Zhong; Tang, Liang

2017-11-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) have received increasing attention worldwide recently because of potential risk to aquatic environment and living organisms. Herein, occurrence and spatial distributions of 17 selected PFCs were investigated in surface water adjacent to potential industrial emission categories in Shanghai. The results showed the distributions of PFCs in the ambient rivers were greatly affected by those industrial sources. Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and other short-chain PFCs such as perfluoropentanoic acid (PFPeA) and perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFBS) were detected as the predominant species in all samples. Specifically, the total concentrations of PFCs (∑PFCs) near the airport ranged from 142 to 264ngL -1 , with PFOA, PFPeA, and PFBS as most prevalent. While near the fluorochemical plant and metal plating, concentrations of ∑PFCs ranged from 200 to 2143ngL -1 and 211ngL -1 to 705ngL -1 ; and PFOA was the predominant individual PFCs, with the highest concentration of 1985ngL -1 . However, concentrations of PFOS were found at relatively low level, which ranged from < 0.06 to 4.44ngL -1 . The Spearman correlation analysis of concentration of individual PFCs showed that PFOA and perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA) was positive, while the correlation between PFOA and perfluorohexansulfonate (PFHxS) was negative near the airport, indicating PFOA and PFHxA may share common sources. Preliminary ecological risk evaluation of PFCs in adjacent water of the industrial emission areas suggested these emission categories posed higher risks than other area, although the risk level was still relatively safe. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ACTION-SPACE CLUSTERING OF TIDAL STREAMS TO INFER THE GALACTIC POTENTIAL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanderson, Robyn E.; Helmi, Amina; Hogg, David W., E-mail: robyn@astro.columbia.edu

2015-03-10

We present a new method for constraining the Milky Way halo gravitational potential by simultaneously fitting multiple tidal streams. This method requires three-dimensional positions and velocities for all stars to be fit, but does not require identification of any specific stream or determination of stream membership for any star. We exploit the principle that the action distribution of stream stars is most clustered when the potential used to calculate the actions is closest to the true potential. Clustering is quantified with the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD), which also provides conditional uncertainties for our parameter estimates. We show, for toy Gaia-like datamore » in a spherical isochrone potential, that maximizing the KLD of the action distribution relative to a smoother distribution recovers the input potential. The precision depends on the observational errors and number of streams; using K III giants as tracers, we measure the enclosed mass at the average radius of the sample stars accurate to 3% and precise to 20%-40%. Recovery of the scale radius is precise to 25%, biased 50% high by the small galactocentric distance range of stars in our mock sample (1-25 kpc, or about three scale radii, with mean 6.5 kpc). 20-25 streams with at least 100 stars each are required for a stable confidence interval. With radial velocities (RVs) to 100 kpc, all parameters are determined with ∼10% accuracy and 20% precision (1.3% accuracy for the enclosed mass), underlining the need to complete the RV catalog for faint halo stars observed by Gaia.« less

Inter-annual variability of North Sea plaice spawning habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loots, C.; Vaz, S.; Koubbi, P.; Planque, B.; Coppin, F.; Verin, Y.

2010-11-01

Potential spawning habitat is defined as the area where environmental conditions are suitable for spawning to occur. Spawning adult data from the first quarter (January-March) of the International Bottom Trawl Survey have been used to study the inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat of North Sea plaice from 1980 to 2007. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to create a model that related five environmental variables (depth, bottom temperature and salinity, seabed stress and sediment type) to presence-absence and abundance of spawning adults. Then, the habitat model was applied each year from 1970 to 2007 to predict inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat. Predicted responses obtained by GAM for each year were mapped using kriging. A hierarchical classification associated with a correspondence analysis was performed to cluster spawning suitable areas and to determine how they evolved across years. The potential spawning habitat was consistent with historical spawning ground locations described in the literature from eggs surveys. It was also found that the potential spawning habitat varied across years. Suitable areas were located in the southern part of the North Sea and along the eastern coast of England and Scotland in the eighties; they expanded further north from the nineties. Annual survey distributions did not show such northward expansion and remained located in the southern North Sea. This suggests that this species' actual spatial distribution remains stable against changing environmental conditions, and that the potential spawning habitat is not fully occupied. Changes in environmental conditions appear to remain within plaice environmental ranges, meaning that other factors may control the spatial distribution of plaice spawning habitat.

Adsorption of finite semiflexible polymers and their loop and tail distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kampmann, Tobias A.; Kierfeld, Jan

2017-07-01

We discuss the adsorption of semiflexible polymers to a planar attractive wall and focus on the questions of the adsorption threshold for polymers of finite length and their loop and tail distributions using both Monte Carlo simulations and analytical arguments. For the adsorption threshold, we find three regimes: (i) a flexible or Gaussian regime if the persistence length is smaller than the adsorption potential range, (ii) a semiflexible regime if the persistence length is larger than the potential range, and (iii) for finite polymers, a novel crossover to a rigid rod regime if the deflection length exceeds the contour length. In the flexible and semiflexible regimes, finite size corrections arise because the correlation length exceeds the contour length. In the rigid rod regime, however, it is essential how the global orientational or translational degrees of freedom are restricted by grafting or confinement. We discuss finite size corrections for polymers grafted to the adsorbing surface and for polymers confined by a second (parallel) hard wall. Based on these results, we obtain a method to analyze adsorption data for finite semiflexible polymers such as filamentous actin. For the loop and tail distributions, we find power laws with an exponential decay on length scales exceeding the correlation length. We derive and confirm the loop and tail power law exponents for flexible and semiflexible polymers. This allows us to explain that, close to the transition, semiflexible polymers have significantly smaller loops and both flexible and semiflexible polymers desorb by expanding their tail length. The tail distribution allows us to extract the free energy per length of adsorption for actin filaments from experimental data [D. Welch et al., Soft Matter 11, 7507 (2015)].

A climatology of gravity wave parameters based on satellite limb soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ern, Manfred; Trinh, Quang Thai; Preusse, Peter; Riese, Martin

2017-04-01

Gravity waves are one of the main drivers of atmospheric dynamics. The resolution of most global circulation models (GCMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs), however, is too coarse to properly resolve the small scales of gravity waves. Horizontal scales of gravity waves are in the range of tens to a few thousand kilometers. Gravity wave source processes involve even smaller scales. Therefore GCMs/CCMs usually parametrize the effect of gravity waves on the global circulation. These parametrizations are very simplified, and comparisons with global observations of gravity waves are needed for an improvement of parametrizations and an alleviation of model biases. In our study, we present a global data set of gravity wave distributions observed in the stratosphere and the mesosphere by the infrared limb sounding satellite instruments High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). We provide various gravity wave parameters (for example, gravity variances, potential energies and absolute momentum fluxes). This comprehensive climatological data set can serve for comparison with other instruments (ground based, airborne, or other satellite instruments), as well as for comparison with gravity wave distributions, both resolved and parametrized, in GCMs and CCMs. The purpose of providing various different parameters is to make our data set useful for a large number of potential users and to overcome limitations of other observation techniques, or of models, that may be able to provide only one of those parameters. We present a climatology of typical average global distributions and of zonal averages, as well as their natural range of variations. In addition, we discuss seasonal variations of the global distribution of gravity waves, as well as limitations of our method of deriving gravity wave parameters from satellite data.

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

PubMed

Rougier, Thibaud; Lassalle, Géraldine; Drouineau, Hilaire; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Faure, Thierry; Deffuant, Guillaume; Rochard, Eric; Lambert, Patrick

2015-01-01

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species

PubMed Central

Rougier, Thibaud; Lassalle, Géraldine; Drouineau, Hilaire; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Faure, Thierry; Deffuant, Guillaume; Rochard, Eric; Lambert, Patrick

2015-01-01

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well. PMID:26426280

Washington Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Data From Potential Field Studies

DOE Data Explorer

Anderson, Megan; Ritzinger, Brent; Glen, Jonathan; Schermerhorn, William

2017-12-20

A recent study which adapts play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology to assess geothermal potential was conducted at three locations (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens seismic zone, and Wind River valley) along the Washington Cascade Range (Forson et al. 2017). Potential field (gravity and magnetic) methods which can detect subsurface contrasts in physical properties, provides a means for mapping and modeling subsurface geology and structure. As part of the WA-Cascade PFA project, we performed potential field studies by collecting high-resolution gravity and ground-magnetic data, and rock property measurements to (1) identify and constrain fault geometries (2) constrain subsurface lithologic distribution (3) study fault interactions (4) identify areas favorable to hydrothermal flow, and ultimately (5) guide future geothermal exploration at each location.

The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications.

PubMed

Durante, Leonardo M; Cruz, Igor C S; Lotufo, Tito M C

2018-01-01

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum , generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll- a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species.

The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications

PubMed Central

Cruz, Igor C.S.

2018-01-01

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species’ distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species. PMID:29785350

The potential distribution of invading Helicoverpa armigera in North America: is it just a matter of time?

PubMed

Kriticos, Darren J; Ota, Noboru; Hutchison, William D; Beddow, Jason; Walsh, Tom; Tay, Wee Tek; Borchert, Daniel M; Paula-Moraes, Silvana V; Paula-Moreas, Silvana V; Czepak, Cecília; Zalucki, Myron P

2015-01-01

Helicoverpa armigera has recently invaded South and Central America, and appears to be spreading rapidly. We update a previously developed potential distribution model to highlight the global invasion threat, with emphasis on the risks to the United States. The continued range expansion of H. armigera in Central America is likely to change the invasion threat it poses to North America qualitatively, making natural dispersal from either the Caribbean islands or Mexico feasible. To characterise the threat posed by H. armigera, we collated the value of the major host crops in the United States growing within its modelled potential range, including that area where it could expand its range during favourable seasons. We found that the annual value of crops that would be exposed to H. armigera totalled approximately US$78 billion p.a., with US$843 million p.a. worth growing in climates that are optimal for the pest. Elsewhere, H. armigera has developed broad-spectrum pesticide resistance; meaning that if it invades the United States, protecting these crops from significant production impacts could be challenging. It may be cost-effective to undertake pre-emptive biosecurity activities such as slowing the spread of H. armigera throughout the Americas, improving the system for detecting H. armigera, and methods for rapid identification, especially distinguishing between H. armigera, H. zea and potential H. armigera x H. zea hybrids. Developing biological control programs, especially using inundative techniques with entomopathogens and parasitoids could slow the spread of H. armigera, and reduce selective pressure for pesticide resistance. The rapid spread of H. armigera through South America into Central America suggests that its spread into North America is a matter of time. The likely natural dispersal routes preclude aggressive incursion responses, emphasizing the value of preparatory communication with agricultural producers in areas suitable for invasion by H. armigera.

The Potential Distribution of Invading Helicoverpa armigera in North America: Is It Just a Matter of Time?

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Ota, Noboru; Hutchison, William D.; Beddow, Jason; Walsh, Tom; Tay, Wee Tek; Borchert, Daniel M.; Paula-Moreas, Silvana V.; Czepak, Cecília; Zalucki, Myron P.

2015-01-01

Helicoverpa armigera has recently invaded South and Central America, and appears to be spreading rapidly. We update a previously developed potential distribution model to highlight the global invasion threat, with emphasis on the risks to the United States. The continued range expansion of H. armigera in Central America is likely to change the invasion threat it poses to North America qualitatively, making natural dispersal from either the Caribbean islands or Mexico feasible. To characterise the threat posed by H. armigera, we collated the value of the major host crops in the United States growing within its modelled potential range, including that area where it could expand its range during favourable seasons. We found that the annual value of crops that would be exposed to H. armigera totalled approximately US$78 billion p.a., with US$843 million p.a. worth growing in climates that are optimal for the pest. Elsewhere, H. armigera has developed broad-spectrum pesticide resistance; meaning that if it invades the United States, protecting these crops from significant production impacts could be challenging. It may be cost-effective to undertake pre-emptive biosecurity activities such as slowing the spread of H. armigera throughout the Americas, improving the system for detecting H. armigera, and methods for rapid identification, especially distinguishing between H. armigera, H. zea and potential H. armigera x H. zea hybrids. Developing biological control programs, especially using inundative techniques with entomopathogens and parasitoids could slow the spread of H. armigera, and reduce selective pressure for pesticide resistance. The rapid spread of H. armigera through South America into Central America suggests that its spread into North America is a matter of time. The likely natural dispersal routes preclude aggressive incursion responses, emphasizing the value of preparatory communication with agricultural producers in areas suitable for invasion by H. armigera. PMID:25786260

Contrasting physiological responses of six eucalyptus species to water deficit.

PubMed

Merchant, Andrew; Callister, Andrew; Arndt, Stefan; Tausz, Michael; Adams, Mark

2007-12-01

The genus Eucalyptus occupies a broad ecological range, forming the dominant canopy in many Australian ecosystems. Many Eucalyptus species are renowned for tolerance to aridity, yet inter-specific variation in physiological traits, particularly water relations parameters, contributing to this tolerance is weakly characterized only in a limited taxonomic range. The study tests the hypothesis that differences in the distribution of Eucalyptus species is related to cellular water relations. Six eucalypt species originating from (1) contrasting environments for aridity and (2) diverse taxonomic groups were grown in pots and subjected to the effects of water deficit over a 10-week period. Water potential, relative water content and osmotic parameters were analysed by using pressure-volume curves and related to gas exchange, photosynthesis and biomass. The six eucalypt species differed in response to water deficit. Most significantly, species from high rainfall environments (E. obliqua, E. rubida) and the phreatophyte (E. camaldulensis) had lower osmotic potential under water deficit via accumulation of cellular osmotica (osmotic adjustment). In contrast, species from low rainfall environments (E. cladocalyx, E. polyanthemos and E. tricarpa) had lower osmotic potential through a combination of both constitutive solutes and osmotic adjustment, combined with reductions in leaf water content. It is demonstrated that osmotic adjustment is a common response to water deficit in six eucalypt species. In addition, significant inter-specific variation in osmotic potential correlates with species distribution in environments where water is scarce. This provides a physiological explanation for aridity tolerance and emphasizes the need to identify osmolytes that accumulate under stress in the genus Eucalyptus.

Quantitative Genetic Architecture at Latitudinal Range Boundaries: Reduced Variation but Higher Trait Independence.

PubMed

Paccard, Antoine; Van Buskirk, Josh; Willi, Yvonne

2016-05-01

Species distribution limits are hypothesized to be caused by small population size and limited genetic variation in ecologically relevant traits, but earlier studies have not evaluated genetic variation in multivariate phenotypes. We asked whether populations at the latitudinal edges of the distribution have altered quantitative genetic architecture of ecologically relevant traits compared with midlatitude populations. We calculated measures of evolutionary potential in nine Arabidopsis lyrata populations spanning the latitudinal range of the species in eastern and midwestern North America. Environments at the latitudinal extremes have reduced water availability, and therefore plants were assessed under wet and dry treatments. We estimated genetic variance-covariance (G-) matrices for 10 traits related to size, development, and water balance. Populations at southern and northern distribution edges had reduced levels of genetic variation across traits, but their G-matrices were more spherical; G-matrix orientation was unrelated to latitude. As a consequence, the predicted short-term response to selection was at least as strong in edge populations as in central populations. These results are consistent with genetic drift eroding variation and reducing the effectiveness of correlational selection at distribution margins. We conclude that genetic variation of isolated traits poorly predicts the capacity to evolve in response to multivariate selection and that the response to selection may frequently be greater than expected at species distribution margins because of genetic drift.

Dynamics of Action Potential Initiation in the GABAergic Thalamic Reticular Nucleus In Vivo

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Fabián; Fuentealba, Pablo

2012-01-01

Understanding the neural mechanisms of action potential generation is critical to establish the way neural circuits generate and coordinate activity. Accordingly, we investigated the dynamics of action potential initiation in the GABAergic thalamic reticular nucleus (TRN) using in vivo intracellular recordings in cats in order to preserve anatomically-intact axo-dendritic distributions and naturally-occurring spatiotemporal patterns of synaptic activity in this structure that regulates the thalamic relay to neocortex. We found a wide operational range of voltage thresholds for action potentials, mostly due to intrinsic voltage-gated conductances and not synaptic activity driven by network oscillations. Varying levels of synchronous synaptic inputs produced fast rates of membrane potential depolarization preceding the action potential onset that were associated with lower thresholds and increased excitability, consistent with TRN neurons performing as coincidence detectors. On the other hand the presence of action potentials preceding any given spike was associated with more depolarized thresholds. The phase-plane trajectory of the action potential showed somato-dendritic propagation, but no obvious axon initial segment component, prominent in other neuronal classes and allegedly responsible for the high onset speed. Overall, our results suggest that TRN neurons could flexibly integrate synaptic inputs to discharge action potentials over wide voltage ranges, and perform as coincidence detectors and temporal integrators, supported by a dynamic action potential threshold. PMID:22279567

Evolution of the climatic tolerance and postglacial range changes of the most primitive orchids (Apostasioideae) within Sundaland, Wallacea and Sahul

PubMed Central

Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Kras, Marta; Dudek, Magdalena

2016-01-01

The location of possible glacial refugia of six Apostasioideae representatives is estimated based on ecological niche modeling analysis. The distribution of their suitable niches during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is compared with their current potential and documented geographical ranges. The climatic factors limiting the studied species occurrences are evaluated and the niche overlap between the studied orchids is assessed and discussed. The predicted niche occupancy profiles and reconstruction of ancestral climatic tolerances suggest high level of phylogenetic niche conservatism within Apostasioideae. PMID:27635348

Integration of Dynamic Models in Range Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

2004-01-01

This work addresses the various model interactions in real-time to make an efficient internet based decision making tool for Shuttle launch. The decision making tool depends on the launch commit criteria coupled with physical models. Dynamic interaction between a wide variety of simulation applications and techniques, embedded algorithms, and data visualizations are needed to exploit the full potential of modeling and simulation. This paper also discusses in depth details of web based 3-D graphics and applications to range safety. The advantages of this dynamic model integration are secure accessibility and distribution of real time information to other NASA centers.

The global age distribution of granitic pegmatites

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Andrew; Bradley, Dwight C.

2014-01-01

An updated global compilation of 377 new and previously published ages indicates that granitic pegmatites range in age from Mesoarchean to Neogene and have a semi-periodic age distribution. Undivided granitic pegmatites show twelve age maxima: 2913, 2687, 2501, 1853, 1379, 1174, 988, 525, 483, 391, 319, and 72 Ma. These peaks correspond broadly with various proxy records of supercontinent assembly, including the age distributions of granites, detrital zircon grains, and passive margins. Lithium-cesium-tantalum (LCT) pegmatites have a similar age distribution to the undivided granitic pegmatites, with maxima at 2638, 1800, 962, 529, 485, 371, 309, and 274 Ma. Lithium and Ta resources in LCT pegmatites are concentrated in the Archean and Phanerozoic. While there are some Li resources from the Proterozoic, the dominantly bimodal distribution of resources is particularly evident for Ta. This distribution is similar to that of orogenic gold deposits, and has been interpreted to reflect the preservation potential of the orogenic belts where these deposits are formed. Niobium-yttrium-fluorine (NYF) pegmatites show similar age distributions to LCT pegmatites, but with a strong maximum at ca. 1000 Ma.

On the Debye–Hückel effect of electric screening

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campos, L. M. B. C.; Lau, F. J. P.

2014-07-15

The paper considers non-linear self-consistent electric potential equation (Sec. I), due to a cloud made of a single species of electric charges, satisfying a Boltzmann distribution law (Sec. II). Exact solutions are obtained in a simple logarithmic form, in three cases: (Sec. III) spherical radial symmetry; (Sec. IV) plane parallel symmetry; (Sec. V) a special case of azimuthal-cylindrical symmetry. All these solutions, and their transformations (Sec. VI), involve the Debye-Hückel radius; the latter was originally defined from a solution of the linearized self-consistent potential equation. Using an exact solution of the self-consistent potential equation, the distance at which the potentialmore » vanishes differs from the Debye-Hückel radius by a factor of √(2). The preceding (Secs. II–VI) simple logarithmic exact solutions of the self-consistent potential equations involve no arbitrary constants, and thus are special or singular integrals not the general integral. The general solution of the self-consistent potential equation is obtained in the plane parallel case (Sec. VII), and it involves two arbitrary constants that can be reduced to one via a translation (Sec. VIII). The plots of dimensionless potential (Figure 1), electric field (Figure 2), charge density (Figure 3), and total charge between ζ and infinity (Figure 4), versus distance normalized to Debye-Hückel radius ζ ≡ z/a, show that (Sec. IX) there is a continuum of solutions, ranging from a charge distribution concentrated inside the Debye-Hückel radius to one spread-out beyond it. The latter case leads to the limiting case of logarithmic potential, and stronger electric field; the former case, of very concentrated charge distribution, leads to a fratricide effect and weaker electric field.« less

Thermocapillary flow contribution to dropwise condensation heat transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phadnis, Akshay; Rykaczewski, Konrad

2017-11-01

With recent developments of durable hydrophobic materials potentially enabling industrial applications of dropwise condensation, accurate modeling of heat transfer during this phase change process is becoming increasingly important. Classical steady state models of dropwise condensation are based on the integration of heat transfer through individual droplets over the entire drop size distribution. These models consider only the conduction heat transfer inside the droplets. However, simple scaling arguments suggest that thermocapillary flows might exist in such droplets. In this work, we used Finite Element heat transfer model to quantify the effect of Marangoni flow on dropwise condensation heat transfer of liquids with a wide range of surface tensions ranging from water to pentane. We confirmed that the Marangoni flow is present for a wide range of droplet sizes, but only has quantifiable effects on heat transfer in drops larger than 10 µm. By integrating the single drop heat transfer simulation results with drop size distribution for the cases considered, we demonstrated that Marangoni flow contributes a 10-30% increase in the overall heat transfer coefficient over conduction only model.

Electronic Structure, Dielectric Response, and Surface Charge Distribution of RGD (1FUV) Peptide

PubMed Central

Adhikari, Puja; Wen, Amy M.; French, Roger H.; Parsegian, V. Adrian; Steinmetz, Nicole F.; Podgornik, Rudolf; Ching, Wai-Yim

2014-01-01

Long and short range molecular interactions govern molecular recognition and self-assembly of biological macromolecules. Microscopic parameters in the theories of these molecular interactions are either phenomenological or need to be calculated within a microscopic theory. We report a unified methodology for the ab initio quantum mechanical (QM) calculation that yields all the microscopic parameters, namely the partial charges as well as the frequency-dependent dielectric response function, that can then be taken as input for macroscopic theories of electrostatic, polar, and van der Waals-London dispersion intermolecular forces. We apply this methodology to obtain the electronic structure of the cyclic tripeptide RGD-4C (1FUV). This ab initio unified methodology yields the relevant parameters entering the long range interactions of biological macromolecules, providing accurate data for the partial charge distribution and the frequency-dependent dielectric response function of this peptide. These microscopic parameters determine the range and strength of the intricate intermolecular interactions between potential docking sites of the RGD-4C ligand and its integrin receptor. PMID:25001596

Best linear unbiased prediction of host range of the facultative parasite Colletotrichum gloeosporioides f. sp. salsolae, a potential biological control agent of Russian thistle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tumbleweed or Russian thistle (Salsola tragus L.) is an introduced invasive weed in N. America. It is widely distributed in the U.S. and is a target of biological control efforts. The facultative parasitic fungus Colletotrichum gloeosporioides (Penz.) Penz. & Sacc. in Penz. f. sp. salsolae is a po...

Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy and Meat Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Hester J. T.; Knight, Richard S. G.

Prion diseases or transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) comprise a wide-ranging group of neurodegenerative diseases found in animals and humans. They have diverse causes and geographical distributions, but have similar pathological features, transmissibility and, are ultimately, fatal. Central to all TSEs is the presence of an abnormal form of a normal host protein, namely the prion protein. Because of their potential transmissibility, these diseases have wide public health ramifications.

Cold tolerance of mountain pine beetle among novel eastern pines: A potential for trade-offs in an invaded range?

Treesearch

Derek W. Rosenberger; Brian H. Aukema; Robert C. Venette

2017-01-01

Novel hosts may have unforeseen impacts on herbivore life history traits. The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is a tree-killing bark beetle native to western North America but constrained by cold temperatures in the northern limits of its distribution. In recent years, this insect has spread north and east of its historical...

Community structure, biodiversity, and ecosystem services in treeline whitebark pine communities: Potential impacts from a non-native pathogen

Treesearch

Diana F. Tomback; Lynn M. Resler; Robert E. Keane; Elizabeth R. Pansing; Andrew J. Andrade; Aaron C. Wagner

2016-01-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) has the largest and most northerly distribution of any white pine (Subgenus Strobus) in North America, encompassing 18° latitude and 21° longitude in western mountains. Within this broad range, however, whitebark pine occurs within a narrow elevational zone, including upper subalpine and treeline forests, and functions...

Ex Ante Research Explored: Numbers, Types and Use of Ex Ante Policy Studies by the Dutch Government

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haarhuis, Carolien Maria Klein; Smit, Monika

2017-01-01

Ex ante research can contribute to evidence-informed policies. In this article, we explore numbers and types of ex ante studies as well as their use. First, we took stock of a potentially wide range of ex ante studies published by the Dutch government between 2005 and 2011, applying a systematic approach. Though unevenly distributed across…

Cost Considerations in Cloud Computing

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

investments. 2. Database Options The potential promise that “ big data ” analytics holds for many enterprise mission areas makes relevant the question of the...development of a range of new distributed file systems and data - bases that have better scalability properties than traditional SQL databases. Hadoop ... data . Many systems exist that extend or supplement Hadoop —such as Apache Accumulo, which provides a highly granular mechanism for managing security

Distributional records of shrews (Mammalia, Soricomorpha, Soricidae) from Northern Central America with the first record of Sorex from Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodman, Neal; Matson, John O.; McCarthy, Timothy J.; Eckerlin, Ralph P.; Bulmer, Walter; Ordonez-Garza, Nicte

2012-01-01

Short term surveys for small mammals in Guatemala and Honduras during 1992–2009 provided important new records for 12 taxa of shrews from 24 localities. These locality records expand the known geographic distributions for five species and for the genus Sorex Linnaeus, 1758: the geographic range of Cryptotis goodwini Jackson, 1933, now includes the Sierra de las Minas, Guatemala, and several isolated highlands in western Honduras; the known distribution of Cryptotis mayensis (Merriam, 1901) is increased with the first definite modern record for this shrew from Guatemala; Cryptotis merriami Choate, 1970, is now known to occur in the Sierra de las Minas and the Sierra del Merendon, Guatemala, as well as the isolated Sierra de Omoa and Montana de La Muralla in Honduras, and its documented elevational range (600–1720 m) is expanded; records of Sorex veraepacis Alston, 1877, expand the known distribution of this species to include the Sierra de Yalijux, Guatemala; and discovery of Sorex salvini Merriam, 1897, at Celaque, Honduras (1825–3110 m), represents a considerable extension of the geographic range of the species, and it is the first record of the genus Sorex from Honduras. In addition, the first record of potential syntopy among C. goodwini, C merriami, and Cryptotis orophilus (J.A. Allen, 1895), is reported at an elevation of 1430 m in the Sierra de Celaque, Honduras. Information associated with these records contributes substantially to knowledge of habitat use, elevational distributions, reproductive patterns, diet, and parasites of the species encountered. General patterns include the first evidence that Neotropical species of soricids have smaller litters than their temperate congeners.

Using eco-physiological traits to understand the realized niche: the role of desiccation tolerance in Chagas disease vectors.

PubMed

de la Vega, Gerardo J; Schilman, Pablo E

2017-12-01

Small ectotherms, such as insects, with high surface area-to-volume ratios are usually at risk of dehydration in arid environments. We hypothesize that desiccation tolerance in insects could be reflected in their distribution, which is limited by areas with high relative values of water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (e.g., hot and dry). The main goal of this study was to explore whether incorporation of eco-physiological traits such as desiccation tolerance in arid environments can improve our understanding of species distribution models (SDM). We use a novel eco-physiological approach to understand the distribution and the potential overlap with their fundamental niche in triatomine bugs, Chagas disease vectors. The desiccation dimension for T. infestans, T. delpontei, T. dimidiata, and T. sordida niches seems to extend to very dry areas. For T. vitticeps, xeric areas seem to limit the geographical range of their realized niche. The maximum VPD limits the western and southern distributions of T. vitticeps, T. delpontei, and T. patagonica. All species showed high tolerance to desiccation with survival times (35 °C-RH ~ 15%) ranging from 24 to 38 days, except for T. dimidiata (9 days), which can be explained by a higher water-loss rate, due to a higher cuticular permeability along with a higher critical water content. This approach indicates that most of these triatomine bugs could be exploiting the dryness dimension of their fundamental niche. Incorporating such species-specific traits in studies of distribution, range, and limits under scenarios of changing climate could enhance predictions of movement of disease-causing vectors into novel regions.

Quantifying new water fractions and water age distributions using ensemble hydrograph separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, James

2017-04-01

Catchment transit times are important controls on contaminant transport, weathering rates, and runoff chemistry. Recent theoretical studies have shown that catchment transit time distributions are nonstationary, reflecting the temporal variability in precipitation forcing, the structural heterogeneity of catchments themselves, and the nonlinearity of the mechanisms controlling storage and transport in the subsurface. The challenge of empirically estimating these nonstationary transit time distributions in real-world catchments, however, has only begun to be explored. Long, high-frequency tracer time series are now becoming available, creating new opportunities to study how rainfall becomes streamflow on timescales of minutes to days following the onset of precipitation. Here I show that the conventional formula used for hydrograph separation can be converted into an equivalent linear regression equation that quantifies the fraction of current rainfall in streamflow across ensembles of precipitation events. These ensembles can be selected to represent different discharge ranges, different precipitation intensities, or different levels of antecedent moisture, thus quantifying how the fraction of "new water" in streamflow varies with forcings such as these. I further show how this approach can be generalized to empirically determine the contributions of precipitation inputs to streamflow across a range of time lags. In this way the short-term tail of the transit time distribution can be directly quantified for an ensemble of precipitation events. Benchmark testing with a simple, nonlinear, nonstationary catchment model demonstrates that this approach quantitatively measures the short tail of the transit time distribution for a wide range of catchment response characteristics. In combination with reactive tracer time series, this approach can potentially be extended to measure short-term chemical reaction rates at the catchment scale. High-frequency tracer time series from several experimental catchments will be used to demonstrate the utility of the new approach outlined here.

How climate, migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech.

PubMed

Saltré, Frédérik; Duputié, Anne; Gaucherel, Cédric; Chuine, Isabelle

2015-02-01

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process-based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north-eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1-2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36-61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life-history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shift happens: trailing edge contraction associated with recent warming trends threatens a distinct genetic lineage in the marine macroalga Fucus vesiculosus.

PubMed

Nicastro, Katy R; Zardi, Gerardo I; Teixeira, Sara; Neiva, João; Serrão, Ester A; Pearson, Gareth A

2013-01-23

Significant effects of recent global climate change have already been observed in a variety of ecosystems, with evidence for shifts in species ranges, but rarely have such consequences been related to the changes in the species genetic pool. The stretch of Atlantic coast between North Africa and North Iberia is ideal for studying the relationship between species distribution and climate change as it includes the distributional limits of a considerable number of both cold- and warm-water species.We compared temporal changes in distribution of the canopy-forming alga Fucus vesiculosus with historical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns to draw links between range shifts and contemporary climate change. Moreover, we genetically characterized with microsatellite markers previously sampled extinct and extant populations in order to estimate resulting cryptic genetic erosion. Over the past 30 years, a geographic contraction of the southern range edge of this species has occurred, with a northward latitudinal shift of approximately 1,250 km. Additionally, a more restricted distributional decline was recorded in the Bay of Biscay. Coastal SST warming data over the last three decades revealed a significant increase in temperature along most of the studied coastline, averaging 0.214°C/decade. Importantly, the analysis of existing and extinct population samples clearly distinguished two genetically different groups, a northern and a southern clade. Because of the range contraction, the southern group is currently represented by very few extant populations. This southern edge range shift is thus causing the loss of a distinct component of the species genetic background. We reveal a climate-correlated diversity loss below the species level, a process that could render the species more vulnerable to future environmental changes and affect its evolutionary potential. This is a remarkable case of genetic uniqueness of a vanishing cryptic genetic clade (southern clade).

Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

2018-09-01

Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Distributions of Autocorrelated First-Order Kinetic Outcomes: Illness Severity

PubMed Central

Englehardt, James D.

2015-01-01

Many complex systems produce outcomes having recurring, power law-like distributions over wide ranges. However, the form necessarily breaks down at extremes, whereas the Weibull distribution has been demonstrated over the full observed range. Here the Weibull distribution is derived as the asymptotic distribution of generalized first-order kinetic processes, with convergence driven by autocorrelation, and entropy maximization subject to finite positive mean, of the incremental compounding rates. Process increments represent multiplicative causes. In particular, illness severities are modeled as such, occurring in proportion to products of, e.g., chronic toxicant fractions passed by organs along a pathway, or rates of interacting oncogenic mutations. The Weibull form is also argued theoretically and by simulation to be robust to the onset of saturation kinetics. The Weibull exponential parameter is shown to indicate the number and widths of the first-order compounding increments, the extent of rate autocorrelation, and the degree to which process increments are distributed exponential. In contrast with the Gaussian result in linear independent systems, the form is driven not by independence and multiplicity of process increments, but by increment autocorrelation and entropy. In some physical systems the form may be attracting, due to multiplicative evolution of outcome magnitudes towards extreme values potentially much larger and smaller than control mechanisms can contain. The Weibull distribution is demonstrated in preference to the lognormal and Pareto I for illness severities versus (a) toxicokinetic models, (b) biologically-based network models, (c) scholastic and psychological test score data for children with prenatal mercury exposure, and (d) time-to-tumor data of the ED01 study. PMID:26061263

RF tomography of metallic objects in free space: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jia; Ewing, Robert L.; Berdanier, Charles; Baker, Christopher

2015-05-01

RF tomography has great potential in defense and homeland security applications. A distributed sensing research facility is under development at Air Force Research Lab. To develop a RF tomographic imaging system for the facility, preliminary experiments have been performed in an indoor range with 12 radar sensors distributed on a circle of 3m radius. Ultra-wideband pulses are used to illuminate single and multiple metallic targets. The echoes received by distributed sensors were processed and combined for tomography reconstruction. Traditional matched filter algorithm and truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm are compared in terms of their complexity, accuracy, and suitability for distributed processing. A new algorithm is proposed for shape reconstruction, which jointly estimates the object boundary and scatter points on the waveform's propagation path. The results show that the new algorithm allows accurate reconstruction of object shape, which is not available through the matched filter and truncated SVD algorithms.

Demonstration of temperature imaging by H₂O absorption spectroscopy using compressed sensing tomography.

PubMed

An, Xinliang; Brittelle, Mack S; Lauzier, Pascal T; Gord, James R; Roy, Sukesh; Chen, Guang-Hong; Sanders, Scott T

2015-11-01

This paper introduces temperature imaging by total-variation-based compressed sensing (CS) tomography of H2O vapor absorption spectroscopy. A controlled laboratory setup is used to generate a constant two-dimensional temperature distribution in air (a roughly Gaussian temperature profile with a central temperature of 677 K). A wavelength-tunable laser beam is directed through the known distribution; the beam is translated and rotated using motorized stages to acquire complete absorption spectra in the 1330-1365 nm range at each of 64 beam locations and 60 view angles. Temperature reconstructions are compared to independent thermocouple measurements. Although the distribution studied is approximately axisymmetric, axisymmetry is not assumed and simulations show similar performance for arbitrary temperature distributions. We study the measurement error as a function of number of beams and view angles used in reconstruction to gauge the potential for application of CS in practical test articles where optical access is limited.

Global time-size distribution of volcanic eruptions on Earth.

PubMed

Papale, Paolo

2018-05-01

Volcanic eruptions differ enormously in their size and impacts, ranging from quiet lava flow effusions along the volcano flanks to colossal events with the potential to affect our entire civilization. Knowledge of the time and size distribution of volcanic eruptions is of obvious relevance for understanding the dynamics and behavior of the Earth system, as well as for defining global volcanic risk. From the analysis of recent global databases of volcanic eruptions extending back to more than 2 million years, I show here that the return times of eruptions with similar magnitude follow an exponential distribution. The associated relative frequency of eruptions with different magnitude displays a power law, scale-invariant distribution over at least six orders of magnitude. These results suggest that similar mechanisms subtend to explosive eruptions from small to colossal, raising concerns on the theoretical possibility to predict the magnitude and impact of impending volcanic eruptions.

Dose mapping inside a gamma irradiator measured with doped silica fibre dosimetry and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, F.; Khandaker, M. U.; Mahdiraji, G. A.; Ung, N. M.; Bradley, D. A.

2017-11-01

In recent years doped silica fibre thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD) have been demonstrated to have considerable potential for irradiation applications, benefitting from the available sensitivity, spatial resolution and dynamic dose range, with primary focus being on the needs of medical dosimetry. Present study concerns the dose distribution inside a cylindrically shaped gamma-ray irradiator cavity, with irradiator facilities such as the familiar 60Co versions being popularly used in industrial applications. Quality assurance of the radiation dose distribution inside the irradiation cell of such a device is of central importance in respect of the delivered dose to the irradiated material. Silica fibre TLD dose-rates obtained within a Gammacell-220 irradiator cavity show the existence of non-negligible dose distribution heterogeneity, by up to 20% and 26% in the radial and axial directions respectively, Monte Carlo simulations and available literature providing some support for present findings. In practice, it is evident that there is need to consider making corrections to nominal dose-rates in order to avoid the potential for under-dosing.

Climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species and giant pandas in China's Qinling Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Viña, Andrés; Winkler, Julie A.; Li, Yu; Xu, Weihua; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Liu, Jianguo

2013-03-01

Climate change is threatening global ecosystems through its impact on the survival of individual species and their ecological functions. Despite the important role of understorey plants in forest ecosystems, climate impact assessments on understorey plants and their role in supporting wildlife habitat are scarce in the literature. Here we assess climate-change impacts on understorey bamboo species with an emphasis on their ecological function as a food resource for endangered giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). An ensemble of bamboo distribution projections associated with multiple climate-change projections and bamboo dispersal scenarios indicates a substantial reduction in the distributional ranges of three dominant bamboo species in the Qinling Mountains, China during the twenty-first century. As these three species comprise almost the entire diet of the panda population in the region, the projected changes in bamboo distribution suggest a potential shortage of food for this population, unless alternative food sources become available. Although the projections were developed under unavoidable simplifying assumptions and uncertainties, they indicate potential challenges for panda conservation and underscore the importance of incorporating interspecific interactions into climate-change impact assessments and associated conservation planning.

Investigating the Relationships between Canopy Characteristics and Snow Depth Distribution at Fine Scales: Preliminary Results from the SnowEX TLS Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenn, N. F.; Uhlmann, Z.; Spaete, L.; Tennant, C.; Hiemstra, C. A.; McNamara, J.

2017-12-01

Predicting changes in forested seasonal snowpacks under altered climate scenarios is one of the most pressing hydrologic challenges facing today's society. Airborne- and satellite-based remote sensing methods hold the potential to transform measurements of terrestrial water stores in snowpack, improve process representations of snowpack accumulation and ablation, and to generate high quality predictions that inform potential strategies to better manage water resources. While the effects of forest on snowpack are well documented, many of the fine-scale processes influenced by the forest-canopy are not directly accounted for because most snow models don't explicitly represent canopy structure and canopy heterogeneity. This study investigates the influence of forest canopy on snowpack distribution at fine scales and quantifies the influence of canopy heterogeneity on snowpack accumulation and ablation processes. We use terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data collected during the SnowEX campaign to discover how the relationships between canopy and snow distributions change across scales. Our sample scales range from individual trees to patches of trees across the Grand Mesa, CO, SnowEx site.

Work probability distribution for a ferromagnet with long-ranged and short-ranged correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharjee, J. K.; Kirkpatrick, T. R.; Sengers, J. V.

2018-04-01

Work fluctuations and work probability distributions are fundamentally different in systems with short-ranged versus long-ranged correlations. Specifically, in systems with long-ranged correlations the work distribution is extraordinarily broad compared to systems with short-ranged correlations. This difference profoundly affects the possible applicability of fluctuation theorems like the Jarzynski fluctuation theorem. The Heisenberg ferromagnet, well below its Curie temperature, is a system with long-ranged correlations in very low magnetic fields due to the presence of Goldstone modes. As the magnetic field is increased the correlations gradually become short ranged. Hence, such a ferromagnet is an ideal system for elucidating the changes of the work probability distribution as one goes from a domain with long-ranged correlations to a domain with short-ranged correlations by tuning the magnetic field. A quantitative analysis of this crossover behavior of the work probability distribution and the associated fluctuations is presented.

Microscopic optical model potential based on a Dirac Brueckner Hartree Fock approach and the relevant uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ruirui; Ma, Zhongyu; Muether, Herbert; van Dalen, E. N. E.; Liu, Tinjin; Zhang, Yue; Zhang, Zhi; Tian, Yuan

2017-09-01

A relativistic microscopic optical model potential, named CTOM, for nucleon-nucleus scattering is investigated in the framework of Dirac-Brueckner-Hartree-Fock approach. The microscopic feature of CTOM is guaranteed through rigorously adopting the isospin dependent DBHF calculation within the subtracted T matrix scheme. In order to verify its prediction power, a global study n, p+ A scattering are carried out. The predicted scattering observables coincide with experimental data within a good accuracy over a broad range of targets and a large region of energies only with two free items, namely the free-range factor t in the applied improved local density approximation and minor adjustments of the scalar and vector potentials in the low-density region. In addition, to estimate the uncertainty of the theoretical results, the deterministic simple least square approach is preliminarily employed to derive the covariance of predicted angular distributions, which is also briefly contained in this paper.

Surface dynamics of voltage-gated ion channels.

PubMed

Heine, Martin; Ciuraszkiewicz, Anna; Voigt, Andreas; Heck, Jennifer; Bikbaev, Arthur

2016-07-03

Neurons encode information in fast changes of the membrane potential, and thus electrical membrane properties are critically important for the integration and processing of synaptic inputs by a neuron. These electrical properties are largely determined by ion channels embedded in the membrane. The distribution of most ion channels in the membrane is not spatially uniform: they undergo activity-driven changes in the range of minutes to days. Even in the range of milliseconds, the composition and topology of ion channels are not static but engage in highly dynamic processes including stochastic or activity-dependent transient association of the pore-forming and auxiliary subunits, lateral diffusion, as well as clustering of different channels. In this review we briefly discuss the potential impact of mobile sodium, calcium and potassium ion channels and the functional significance of this for individual neurons and neuronal networks.

Surface dynamics of voltage-gated ion channels

PubMed Central

Heine, Martin; Ciuraszkiewicz, Anna; Voigt, Andreas; Heck, Jennifer; Bikbaev, Arthur

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Neurons encode information in fast changes of the membrane potential, and thus electrical membrane properties are critically important for the integration and processing of synaptic inputs by a neuron. These electrical properties are largely determined by ion channels embedded in the membrane. The distribution of most ion channels in the membrane is not spatially uniform: they undergo activity-driven changes in the range of minutes to days. Even in the range of milliseconds, the composition and topology of ion channels are not static but engage in highly dynamic processes including stochastic or activity-dependent transient association of the pore-forming and auxiliary subunits, lateral diffusion, as well as clustering of different channels. In this review we briefly discuss the potential impact of mobile sodium, calcium and potassium ion channels and the functional significance of this for individual neurons and neuronal networks. PMID:26891382

Site distribution at the edge of the palaeolithic world: a nutritional niche approach.

PubMed

Brown, Antony G; Basell, Laura S; Robinson, Sian; Burdge, Graham C

2013-01-01

This paper presents data from the English Channel area of Britain and Northern France on the spatial distribution of Lower to early Middle Palaeolithic pre-MIS5 interglacial sites which are used to test the contention that the pattern of the richest sites is a real archaeological distribution and not of taphonomic origin. These sites show a marked concentration in the middle-lower reaches of river valleys with most being upstream of, but close to, estimated interglacial tidal limits. A plant and animal database derived from Middle-Late Pleistocene sites in the region is used to estimate the potentially edible foods and their distribution in the typically undulating landscape of the region. This is then converted into the potential availability of macronutrients (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and selected micronutrients. The floodplain is shown to be the optimum location in the nutritional landscape (nutriscape). In addition to both absolute and seasonal macronutrient advantages the floodplains could have provided foods rich in key micronutrients, which are linked to better health, the maintenance of fertility and minimization of infant mortality. Such places may have been seen as 'good (or healthy) places' explaining the high number of artefacts accumulated by repeated visitation over long periods of time and possible occupation. The distribution of these sites reflects the richest aquatic and wetland successional habitats along valley floors. Such locations would have provided foods rich in a wide range of nutrients, importantly including those in short supply at these latitudes. When combined with other benefits, the high nutrient diversity made these locations the optimal niche in northwest European mixed temperate woodland environments. It is argued here that the use of these nutritionally advantageous locations as nodal or central points facilitated a healthy variant of the Palaeolithic diet which permitted habitation at the edge of these hominins' range.

Site Distribution at the Edge of the Palaeolithic World: A Nutritional Niche Approach

PubMed Central

Brown, Antony G.; Basell, Laura S.; Robinson, Sian; Burdge, Graham C.

2013-01-01

This paper presents data from the English Channel area of Britain and Northern France on the spatial distribution of Lower to early Middle Palaeolithic pre-MIS5 interglacial sites which are used to test the contention that the pattern of the richest sites is a real archaeological distribution and not of taphonomic origin. These sites show a marked concentration in the middle-lower reaches of river valleys with most being upstream of, but close to, estimated interglacial tidal limits. A plant and animal database derived from Middle-Late Pleistocene sites in the region is used to estimate the potentially edible foods and their distribution in the typically undulating landscape of the region. This is then converted into the potential availability of macronutrients (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and selected micronutrients. The floodplain is shown to be the optimum location in the nutritional landscape (nutriscape). In addition to both absolute and seasonal macronutrient advantages the floodplains could have provided foods rich in key micronutrients, which are linked to better health, the maintenance of fertility and minimization of infant mortality. Such places may have been seen as ‘good (or healthy) places’ explaining the high number of artefacts accumulated by repeated visitation over long periods of time and possible occupation. The distribution of these sites reflects the richest aquatic and wetland successional habitats along valley floors. Such locations would have provided foods rich in a wide range of nutrients, importantly including those in short supply at these latitudes. When combined with other benefits, the high nutrient diversity made these locations the optimal niche in northwest European mixed temperate woodland environments. It is argued here that the use of these nutritionally advantageous locations as nodal or central points facilitated a healthy variant of the Palaeolithic diet which permitted habitation at the edge of these hominins’ range. PMID:24339935

Plutonium Oxidation State Distribution under Aerobic and Anaerobic Subsurface Conditions for Metal-Reducing Bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, D. T.; Swanson, J.; Khaing, H.; Deo, R.; Rittmann, B.

2009-12-01

The fate and potential mobility of plutonium in the subsurface is receiving increased attention as the DOE looks to cleanup the many legacy nuclear waste sites and associated subsurface contamination. Plutonium is the near-surface contaminant of concern at several DOE sites and continues to be the contaminant of concern for the permanent disposal of nuclear waste. The mobility of plutonium is highly dependent on its redox distribution at its contamination source and along its potential migration pathways. This redox distribution is often controlled, especially in the near-surface where organic/inorganic contaminants often coexist, by the direct and indirect effects of microbial activity. The redox distribution of plutonium in the presence of facultative metal reducing bacteria (specifically Shewanella and Geobacter species) was established in a concurrent experimental and modeling study under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Pu(VI), although relatively soluble under oxidizing conditions at near-neutral pH, does not persist under a wide range of the oxic and anoxic conditions investigated in microbiologically active systems. Pu(V) complexes, which exhibit high chemical toxicity towards microorganisms, are relatively stable under oxic conditions but are reduced by metal reducing bacteria under anaerobic conditions. These facultative metal-reducing bacteria led to the rapid reduction of higher valent plutonium to form Pu(III/IV) species depending on nature of the starting plutonium species and chelating agents present in solution. Redox cycling of these lower oxidation states is likely a critical step in the formation of pseudo colloids that may lead to long-range subsurface transport. The CCBATCH biogeochemical model is used to explain the redox mechanisms and final speciation of the plutonium oxidation state distributions observed. These results for microbiologically active systems are interpreted in the context of their importance in defining the overall migration of plutonium in the subsurface.

Examining Potential Boundary Bias Effects in Kernel Smoothing on Equating: An Introduction for the Adaptive and Epanechnikov Kernels.

PubMed

Cid, Jaime A; von Davier, Alina A

2015-05-01

Test equating is a method of making the test scores from different test forms of the same assessment comparable. In the equating process, an important step involves continuizing the discrete score distributions. In traditional observed-score equating, this step is achieved using linear interpolation (or an unscaled uniform kernel). In the kernel equating (KE) process, this continuization process involves Gaussian kernel smoothing. It has been suggested that the choice of bandwidth in kernel smoothing controls the trade-off between variance and bias. In the literature on estimating density functions using kernels, it has also been suggested that the weight of the kernel depends on the sample size, and therefore, the resulting continuous distribution exhibits bias at the endpoints, where the samples are usually smaller. The purpose of this article is (a) to explore the potential effects of atypical scores (spikes) at the extreme ends (high and low) on the KE method in distributions with different degrees of asymmetry using the randomly equivalent groups equating design (Study I), and (b) to introduce the Epanechnikov and adaptive kernels as potential alternative approaches to reducing boundary bias in smoothing (Study II). The beta-binomial model is used to simulate observed scores reflecting a range of different skewed shapes.

Real Space Imaging of the Microscopic Origins of the Ultrahigh Dielectric Constant in Polycrystalline CaCu 3Ti 4O 12

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalinin, Sergei V; Shin, Junsoo; Veith, Gabriel M

2005-01-01

The origins of an ultrahigh dielectric constant in polycrystalline CaCu{sub 3}Ti{sub 4}O{sub 12} (CCTO) were studied using the combination of impedance spectroscopy, electron microscopy, and scanning probe microscopy (SPM). Impedance spectra indicate that the transport properties in the 0.1 Hz-1 MHz frequency range are dominated by a single parallel resistive-capacitive (RC) element with a characteristic relaxation frequency of 16 Hz. dc potential distributions measurements by SPM illustrate that significant potential drops occur at the grain boundaries, which thus can be unambiguously identified as the dominant RC element. High frequency ac amplitude and phase distributions illustrate very weak grain boundary contrastmore » in SPM, indicative of strong capacitive coupling across the interfaces. These results demonstrate that the ultrahigh dielectric constant reported for polycrystalline CCTO materials is related to grain-boundary behavior.« less

Condensate statistics and thermodynamics of weakly interacting Bose gas: Recursion relation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorfman, K. E.; Kim, M.; Svidzinsky, A. A.

2011-03-01

We study condensate statistics and thermodynamics of weakly interacting Bose gas with a fixed total number N of particles in a cubic box. We find the exact recursion relation for the canonical ensemble partition function. Using this relation, we calculate the distribution function of condensate particles for N=200. We also calculate the distribution function based on multinomial expansion of the characteristic function. Similar to the ideal gas, both approaches give exact statistical moments for all temperatures in the framework of Bogoliubov model. We compare them with the results of unconstraint canonical ensemble quasiparticle formalism and the hybrid master equation approach. The present recursion relation can be used for any external potential and boundary conditions. We investigate the temperature dependence of the first few statistical moments of condensate fluctuations as well as thermodynamic potentials and heat capacity analytically and numerically in the whole temperature range.

Carbon and nitrogen distribution in oak-hickory forests distributed along a productivity gradient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reber, R.T.; Kaczmarek, D.J.; Pope, P.E.

1993-12-31

Biomass, carbon and nitrogen pools were determined for oak-hickory forests of varying productivity. Little information of this type is available for the central hardwood region. Six oak-hickory dominated forests were chosen to represent a range in potential site productivity as influenced by soil type, amount of recyclable nutrients and available water. Biomass, carbon and nitrogen storage were determined for the following components: above ground standing biomass, fine root biomass, forest floor organic layers and litterfall. As site sequestered at each site was dependent more on the amount of living biomass at each site Litterfall, to some extent, increased with increasingmore » site productivity. As potential site productivity decreased, total fine root biomass increased. The data suggest that as site quality decreased fine root production and turnover may become as important in nutrient cycling as annual litterfall.« less

Optical fiber sensors and signal processing for intelligent structure monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogowski, Robert; Claus, R. O.; Lindner, D. K.; Thomas, Daniel; Cox, Dave

1988-01-01

The analytic and experimental performance of optical fiber sensors for the control of vibration of large aerospace and other structures are investigated. In particular, model domain optical fiber sensor systems, are being studied due to their apparent potential as distributed, low mass sensors of vibration over appropriate ranges of both low frequency and low amplitude displacements. Progress during the past three months is outlined. Progress since September is divided into work in the areas of experimental hardware development, analytical analysis, control design and sensor development. During the next six months, tests of a prototype closed-loop control system for a beam are planned which will demonstrate the solution of several optical fiber instrumentation device problems, the performance of the control system theory which incorporates the model of the modal domain sensor, and the potential for distributed control which this sensor approach offers.

Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia.

PubMed

Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Pimm, Stuart L

2015-01-01

Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species' ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800 m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800 m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400 m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species' elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species' elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species’ ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations. PMID:26641477

Imaging the distribution of transient viscosity after the 2016 Mw 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, James D. P.; Yu, Hang; Tang, Chi-Hsien; Wang, Teng; Barbot, Sylvain; Peng, Dongju; Masuti, Sagar; Dauwels, Justin; Hsu, Ya-Ju; Lambert, Valère; Nanjundiah, Priyamvada; Wei, Shengji; Lindsey, Eric; Feng, Lujia; Shibazaki, Bunichiro

2017-04-01

The deformation of mantle and crustal rocks in response to stress plays a crucial role in the distribution of seismic and volcanic hazards, controlling tectonic processes ranging from continental drift to earthquake triggering. However, the spatial variation of these dynamic properties is poorly understood as they are difficult to measure. We exploited the large stress perturbation incurred by the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, to directly image localized and distributed deformation. The earthquakes illuminated distinct regions of low effective viscosity in the lower crust, notably beneath the Mount Aso and Mount Kuju volcanoes, surrounded by larger-scale variations of viscosity across the back-arc. This study demonstrates a new potential for geodesy to directly probe rock rheology in situ across many spatial and temporal scales.

A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

2009-09-01

Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE PAGES

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; ...

2017-02-08

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2017-01-01

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Insects at low pressure: applications to artificial ecosystems and implications for global windborne distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cockell, C.; Catling, D.; Waites, H.

1999-01-01

Insects have a number of potential roles in closed-loop life support systems. In this study we examined the tolerance of a range of insect orders and life stages to drops in atmospheric pressure using a terrestrial atmosphere. We found that all insects studied could tolerate pressures down to 100 mb. No effects on insect respiration were noted down to 500 mb. Pressure toleration was not dependent on body volume. Our studies demonstrate that insects are compatible with plants in low-pressure artificial and closed-loop ecosystems. The results also have implications for arthropod colonization and global distribution on Earth.

Reexamination of the interaction of atoms with a LiF(001) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miraglia, J. E.; Gravielle, M. S.

2017-02-01

Pairwise additive potentials for multielectronic atoms interacting with a LiF(001) surface are revisited by including an improved description of the electron density associated with the different lattice sites, as well as nonlocal electron density contributions. Within this model, the electron distribution around each ionic site of the crystal is described by means of a so-called "onion" approach that accounts for the influence of the Madelung potential. From such densities, binary interatomic potentials are then derived by using well-known nonlocal functionals. Rumpling and long-range contributions due to projectile polarization and van der Waals forces are also included. We apply this pairwise additive approximation to evaluate the interaction potential between closed-shell (He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe) and open-shell (N, S, and Cl) atoms and the LiF surface, analyzing the relative importance of the different contributions. The performance of the proposed potentials is assessed by contrasting angular positions of rainbow and supernumerary rainbow maxima produced by fast grazing incidence with available experimental data. One important result of our model is that both van der Waals contributions and thermal lattice vibrations play a negligible role for normal energies in the eV range.

Potential effects of regional pumpage on groundwater age distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zinn, Brendan A.; Konikow, Leonard F.

2007-01-01

Groundwater ages estimated from environmental tracers can help calibrate groundwater flow models. Groundwater age represents a mixture of traveltimes, with the distribution of ages determined by the detailed structure of the flow field, which can be prone to significant transient variability. Effects of pumping on age distribution were assessed using direct age simulation in a hypothetical layered aquifer system. A steady state predevelopment age distribution was computed first. A well field was then introduced, and pumpage caused leakage into the confined aquifer of older water from an overlying confining unit. Large changes in simulated groundwater ages occurred in both the aquifer and the confining unit at high pumping rates, and the effects propagated a substantial distance downgradient from the wells. The range and variance of ages contributing to the well increased substantially during pumping. The results suggest that the groundwater age distribution in developed aquifers may be affected by transient leakage from low‐permeability material, such as confining units, under certain hydrogeologic conditions.

Theoretical Framework for Integrating Distributed Energy Resources into Distribution Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lian, Jianming; Wu, Di; Kalsi, Karanjit

This paper focuses on developing a novel theoretical framework for effective coordination and control of a large number of distributed energy resources in distribution systems in order to more reliably manage the future U.S. electric power grid under the high penetration of renewable generation. The proposed framework provides a systematic view of the overall structure of the future distribution systems along with the underlying information flow, functional organization, and operational procedures. It is characterized by the features of being open, flexible and interoperable with the potential to support dynamic system configuration. Under the proposed framework, the energy consumption of variousmore » DERs is coordinated and controlled in a hierarchical way by using market-based approaches. The real-time voltage control is simultaneously considered to complement the real power control in order to keep nodal voltages stable within acceptable ranges during real time. In addition, computational challenges associated with the proposed framework are also discussed with recommended practices.« less

A Second New Species of Ice Crawlers from China (Insecta: Grylloblattodea), with Thorax Evolution and the Prediction of Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Bai, Ming; Jarvis, Karl; Wang, Shu-Yong; Song, Ke-Qing; Wang, Yan-Ping; Wang, Zhi-Liang; Li, Wen-Zhu; Wang, Wei; Yang, Xing-Ke

2010-01-01

Modern grylloblattids are one of the least diverse of the modern insect orders. The thorax changes in morphology might be associated with the changes of the function of the forelegs, wing loss, changes in behavior and adaptation to habitat. As temperature is the main barrier for migration of modern grylloblattids, the range of each species is extremely limited. The potential distribution areas of grylloblattids remain unclear. A second new species of ice crawlers (Insecta: Grylloblattodea), Grylloblattella cheni Bai, Wang et Yang sp. nov., is described from China. The distribution map and key to species of Grylloblattella are given. A comparison of the thorax of extant and extinct Grylloblattodea is presented, with an emphasis on the pronotum using geometric morphometric analysis, which may reflect thorax adaptation and the evolution of Grylloblattodea. Potential global distribution of grylloblattids is inferred. Highly diversified pronota of extinct Grylloblattodea may reflect diverse habitats and niches. The relatively homogeneous pronota of modern grylloblattids might be explained by two hypotheses: synapomorphy or convergent evolution. Most fossils of Grylloblattodea contain an obviously longer meso- and metathorax than prothorax. The length of the meso- and metathorax of modern grylloblattids is normally shorter than the prothorax. This may be associated with the wing loss, which is accompanied by muscle reduction and changes to the thoracic skeleton system. Threats to grylloblattids and several conservation comments are also provided. PMID:20877572

Competition and facilitation may lead to asymmetric range shift dynamics with climate change.

PubMed

Ettinger, Ailene; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2017-09-01

Forecasts of widespread range shifts with climate change stem from assumptions that climate drives species' distributions. However, local adaptation and biotic interactions also influence range limits and thus may impact range shifts. Despite the potential importance of these factors, few studies have directly tested their effects on performance at range limits. We address how population-level variation and biotic interactions may affect range shifts by transplanting seeds and seedlings of western North American conifers of different origin populations into different competitive neighborhoods within and beyond their elevational ranges and monitoring their performance. We find evidence that competition with neighboring trees limits performance within current ranges, but that interactions between adults and juveniles switch from competitive to facilitative at upper range limits. Local adaptation had weaker effects on performance that did not predictably vary with range position or seed origin. Our findings suggest that competitive interactions may slow species turnover within forests at lower range limits, whereas facilitative interactions may accelerate the pace of tree expansions upward near timberline. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The airborne laser ranging system, its capabilities and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, W. D.; Degnan, J. J.; Englar, T. S., Jr.

1982-01-01

The airborne laser ranging system is a multibeam short pulse laser ranging system on board an aircraft. It simultaneously measures the distances between the aircraft and six laser retroreflectors (targets) deployed on the Earth's surface. The system can interrogate over 100 targets distributed over an area of 25,000 sq, kilometers in a matter of hours. Potentially, a total of 1.3 million individual range measurements can be made in a six hour flight. The precision of these range measurements is approximately + or - 1 cm. These measurements are used in procedure which is basically an extension of trilateration techniques to derive the intersite vector between the laser ground targets. By repeating the estimation of the intersite vector, strain and strain rate errors can be estimated. These quantities are essential for crustal dynamic studies which include determination and monitoring of regional strain in the vicinity of active fault zones, land subsidence, and edifice building preceding volcanic eruptions.

The MOLDY short-range molecular dynamics package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackland, G. J.; D'Mellow, K.; Daraszewicz, S. L.; Hepburn, D. J.; Uhrin, M.; Stratford, K.

2011-12-01

We describe a parallelised version of the MOLDY molecular dynamics program. This Fortran code is aimed at systems which may be described by short-range potentials and specifically those which may be addressed with the embedded atom method. This includes a wide range of transition metals and alloys. MOLDY provides a range of options in terms of the molecular dynamics ensemble used and the boundary conditions which may be applied. A number of standard potentials are provided, and the modular structure of the code allows new potentials to be added easily. The code is parallelised using OpenMP and can therefore be run on shared memory systems, including modern multicore processors. Particular attention is paid to the updates required in the main force loop, where synchronisation is often required in OpenMP implementations of molecular dynamics. We examine the performance of the parallel code in detail and give some examples of applications to realistic problems, including the dynamic compression of copper and carbon migration in an iron-carbon alloy. Program summaryProgram title: MOLDY Catalogue identifier: AEJU_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJU_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License version 2 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 382 881 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6 705 242 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran 95/OpenMP Computer: Any Operating system: Any Has the code been vectorised or parallelized?: Yes. OpenMP is required for parallel execution RAM: 100 MB or more Classification: 7.7 Nature of problem: Moldy addresses the problem of many atoms (of order 10 6) interacting via a classical interatomic potential on a timescale of microseconds. It is designed for problems where statistics must be gathered over a number of equivalent runs, such as measuring thermodynamic properities, diffusion, radiation damage, fracture, twinning deformation, nucleation and growth of phase transitions, sputtering etc. In the vast majority of materials, the interactions are non-pairwise, and the code must be able to deal with many-body forces. Solution method: Molecular dynamics involves integrating Newton's equations of motion. MOLDY uses verlet (for good energy conservation) or predictor-corrector (for accurate trajectories) algorithms. It is parallelised using open MP. It also includes a static minimisation routine to find the lowest energy structure. Boundary conditions for surfaces, clusters, grain boundaries, thermostat (Nose), barostat (Parrinello-Rahman), and externally applied strain are provided. The initial configuration can be either a repeated unit cell or have all atoms given explictly. Initial velocities are generated internally, but it is also possible to specify the velocity of a particular atom. A wide range of interatomic force models are implemented, including embedded atom, Morse or Lennard-Jones. Thus the program is especially well suited to calculations of metals. Restrictions: The code is designed for short-ranged potentials, and there is no Ewald sum. Thus for long range interactions where all particles interact with all others, the order- N scaling will fail. Different interatomic potential forms require recompilation of the code. Additional comments: There is a set of associated open-source analysis software for postprocessing and visualisation. This includes local crystal structure recognition and identification of topological defects. Running time: A set of test modules for running time are provided. The code scales as order N. The parallelisation shows near-linear scaling with number of processors in a shared memory environment. A typical run of a few tens of nanometers for a few nanoseconds will run on a timescale of days on a multiprocessor desktop.

The Fleas (Siphonaptera) in Iran: Diversity, Host Range, and Medical Importance.

PubMed

Maleki-Ravasan, Naseh; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Beaucournu, Jean-Claude; Laudisoit, Anne; Mostafavi, Ehsan

2017-01-01

Flea-borne diseases have a wide distribution in the world. Studies on the identity, abundance, distribution and seasonality of the potential vectors of pathogenic agents (e.g. Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, and Rickettsia felis) are necessary tools for controlling and preventing such diseases outbreaks. The improvements of diagnostic tools are partly responsible for an easier detection of otherwise unnoticed agents in the ectoparasitic fauna and as such a good taxonomical knowledge of the potential vectors is crucial. The aims of this study were to make an exhaustive inventory of the literature on the fleas (Siphonaptera) and range of associated hosts in Iran, present their known distribution, and discuss their medical importance. The data were obtained by an extensive literature review related to medically significant fleas in Iran published before 31st August 2016. The flea-host specificity was then determined using a family and subfamily-oriented criteria to further realize and quantify the shared and exclusive vertebrate hosts of fleas among Iran fleas. The locations sampled and reported in the literature were primarily from human habitation, livestock farms, poultry, and rodents' burrows of the 31 provinces of the country. The flea fauna were dominated by seven families, namely the Ceratophyllidae, Leptopsyllidae, Pulicidae, Ctenophthalmidae, Coptopsyllidae, Ischnopsyllidae and Vermipsyllidae. The hosts associated with Iran fleas ranged from the small and large mammals to the birds. Pulicidae were associated with 73% (56/77) of identified host species. Flea-host association analysis indicates that rodents are the common hosts of 5 flea families but some sampling bias results in the reduced number of bird host sampled. Analyses of flea-host relationships at the subfamily level showed that most vertebrates hosted fleas belgonging to 3 subfamilies namely Xenopsyllinae (n = 43), Ctenophthalminae (n = 20) and Amphipsyllinae (n = 17). Meriones persicus was infested by 11 flea subfamilies in the arid, rocky, mountainous regions and Xenopsyllinae were hosted by at least 43 mammal species. These findings place the Persian jird (M. persicus) and the Xenopsyllinae as the major vertebrate and vector hosts of flea-borne diseases in Iran including Yersinia pestis, the etiological agent of plague. We found records of at least seven vector-borne pathogenic agents that can potentially be transmitted by the 117 flea species (or subspecies) of Iran. Herein, we performed a thorough inventary of the flea species and their associated hosts, their medical importance and geographic distribution throughout Iran. This exercise allowed assessing the diversity of flea species with the potential flea-borne agents transmission risk in the country by arranging published data on flea-host associations. This information is a first step for issuing public health policies and rodent-flea control campaigns in Iran as well as those interested in the ecology/epidemiology of flea-borne disease.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, Joshua J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2010-01-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the Western hemisphere.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J; Shafer, Sarah L; Bancroft, Betsy A; Blaustein, Andrew R

2010-02-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Expert Elicitations of 2100 Emission of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Emily; Bosetti, Valentina; Budescu, David; Keller, Klaus; van Vuuren, Detlef

2017-04-01

Emission scenarios such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used intensively for climate research (e.g. climate change projections) and policy analysis. While the range of these scenarios provides an indication of uncertainty, these scenarios are typically not associated with probability values. Some studies (e.g. Vuuren et al, 2007; Gillingham et al., 2015) took a different approach associating baseline emission pathways (conditionally) with probability distributions. This paper summarizes three studies where climate change experts were asked to conduct pair-wise comparisons of possible ranges of 2100 greenhouse gas emissions and rate the relative likelihood of the ranges. The elicitation was performed under two sets of assumptions: 1) a situation where no climate policies are introduced beyond the ones already in place (baseline scenario), and 2) a situation in which countries have ratified the voluntary policies in line with the long term target embedded in the 2015 Paris Agreement. These indirect relative judgments were used to construct subjective cumulative distribution functions. We show that by using a ratio scaling method that invokes relative likelihoods of scenarios, a subjective probability distribution can be derived for each expert that expresses their beliefs in the projected greenhouse gas emissions range in 2100. This method is shown to elicit stable estimates that require minimal adjustment and is relatively invariant to the partition of the domain of interest. Experts also rated the method as being easy and intuitive to use. We also report results of a study that allowed participants to choose their own ranges of greenhouse gas emissions to remove potential anchoring bias. We discuss the implications of the use of this method for facilitating comparison and communication of beliefs among diverse users of climate science research.

Fractal Characteristics of the Pore Network in Diatomites Using Mercury Porosimetry and Image Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stańczak, Grażyna; Rembiś, Marek; Figarska-Warchoł, Beata; Toboła, Tomasz

The complex pore space considerably affects the unique properties of diatomite and its significant potential for many industrial applications. The pore network in the diatomite from the Lower Miocene strata of the Skole nappe (the Jawornik deposit, SE Poland) has been investigated using a fractal approach. The fractal dimension of the pore-space volume was calculated using the Menger sponge as a model of a porous body and the mercury porosimetry data in a pore-throat diameter range between 10,000 and 10 nm. Based on the digital analyses of the two-dimensional images from thin sections taken under a scanning electron microscope at the backscattered electron mode at different magnifications, the authors tried to quantify the pore spaces of the diatomites using the box counting method. The results derived from the analyses of the pore-throat diameter distribution using mercury porosimetry have revealed that the pore space of the diatomite has the bifractal structure in two separated ranges of the pore-throat diameters considerably smaller than the pore-throat sizes corresponding to threshold pressures. Assuming that the fractal dimensions identified for the ranges of the smaller pore-throat diameters characterize the overall pore-throat network in the Jawornik diatomite, we can set apart the distribution of the pore-throat volume (necks) and the pore volume from the distribution of the pore-space volume (pores and necks together).

Comparison of the effects of artificial and natural barriers on large African carnivores: implications for interspecific relationships and connectivity.

PubMed

Cozzi, Gabriele; Broekhuis, Femke; McNutt, J Weldon; Schmid, Bernhard

2013-05-01

1. Physical barriers contribute to habitat fragmentation, influence species distribution and ranging behaviour, and impact long-term population viability. Barrier permeability varies among species and can potentially impact the competitive balance within animal communities by differentially affecting co-occurring species. The influence of barriers on the spatial distribution of species within whole communities has nonetheless received little attention. 2. During a 4-year period, we studied the influence of a fence and rivers, two landscape features that potentially act as barriers on space use and ranging behaviour of lions Panthera leo, spotted hyenas Crocuta crocuta, African wild dogs Lycaon pictus and cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus in Northern Botswana. We compared the tendencies of these species to cross the barriers using data generated from GPS-radio collars fitted to a total of 35 individuals. Barrier permeability was inferred by calculating the number of times animals crossed a barrier vs. the number of times they did not cross. Finally, based on our results, we produced a map of connectivity for the broader landscape system. 3. Permeability varied significantly between fence and rivers and among species. The fence represented an obstacle for lions (permeability = 7.2%), while it was considerably more permeable for hyenas (35.6%) and wild dogs and cheetahs (≥ 50%). In contrast, the rivers and associated floodplains were relatively permeable to lions (14.4%) while they represented a nearly impassable obstacle for the other species (<2%). 4. The aversion of lions to cross the fence resulted in a relatively lion-free habitat patch on one side of the fence, which might provide a potential refuge for other species. For instance, the competitively inferior wild dogs used this refuge significantly more intensively than the side of the fence with a high presence of lions. 5. We showed that the influence of a barrier on the distribution of animals could potentially result in a broad-scale modification of community structure and ecology within a guild of co-occurring species. As habitat fragmentation increases, understanding the impact of barriers on species distributions is thus essential for the implementation of landscape-scale management strategies, the development and maintenance of corridors and the enhancement of connectivity. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Ant Diversity and Distribution along Elevation Gradients in the Australian Wet Tropics: The Importance of Seasonal Moisture Stability

PubMed Central

Nowrouzi, Somayeh; Andersen, Alan N.; Macfadyen, Sarina; Staunton, Kyran M.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Robson, Simon K. A.

2016-01-01

The threat of anthropogenic climate change has seen a renewed focus on understanding contemporary patterns of species distribution. This is especially the case for the biota of tropical mountains, because tropical species often have particularly narrow elevational ranges and there are high levels of short-range endemism. Here we describe geographic patterns of ant diversity and distribution in the World Heritage-listed rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT), revealing seasonal moisture stability to be an important environmental correlate of elevational patterns of species composition. We sampled ants in leaf litter, on the litter surface and on tree trunks at 26 sites from six subregions spanning five degrees of latitude and elevation ranges from 100–1,300 m. A total of 296 species from 63 genera were recorded. Species richness showed a slight peak at mid elevations, and did not vary significantly with latitude. Species composition varied substantially between subregions, and many species have highly localised distributions. There was very marked species turnover with elevation, with a particularly striking compositional disjunction between 600 m and 800 m at each subregion. This disjunction coincides with a strong environmental threshold of seasonal stability in moisture associated with cloud ‘stripping’. Our study therefore provides further support for climatic stability as a potential mechanism underlying patterns of diversity. The average height of orographic cloud layers is predicted to rise under global warming, and associated shifts in seasonal moisture stability may exacerbate biotic change caused by rising temperature alone. PMID:27073848

Predicting long-range transport: a systematic evaluation of two multimedia transport models.

PubMed

Bennett, D H; Scheringer, M; McKone, T E; Hungerbühler, K

2001-03-15

The United Nations Environment Program has recently developed criteria to identify and restrict chemicals with a potential for persistence and long-range transport (persistent organic pollutants or POPs). There are many stakeholders involved, and the issues are not only scientific but also include social, economic, and political factors. This work focuses on one aspect of the POPs debate, the criteria for determining the potential for long-range transport (LRT). Our goal is to determine if current models are reliable enough to support decisions that classify a chemical based on the LRT potential. We examine the robustness of two multimedia fate models for determining the relative ranking and absolute spatial range of various chemicals in the environment. We also consider the effect of parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainty associated with the selection of an algorithm for gas-particle partitioning on the model results. Given the same chemical properties, both models give virtually the same ranking. However, when chemical parameter uncertainties and model uncertainties such as particle partitioning are considered, the spatial range distributions obtained for the individual chemicals overlap, preventing a distinct rank order. The absolute values obtained for the predicted spatial range or travel distance differ significantly between the two models for the uncertainties evaluated. We find that to evaluate a chemical when large and unresolved uncertainties exist, it is more informative to use two or more models and include multiple types of uncertainty. Model differences and uncertainties must be explicitly confronted to determine how the limitations of scientific knowledge impact predictions in the decision-making process.

Post-breeding season distribution of black-footed and Laysan albatrosses satellite-tagged in Alaska: Inter-specific differences in spatial overlap with North Pacific fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischer, K.N.; Suryan, R.M.; Roby, D.D.; Balogh, G.R.

2009-01-01

We integrated satellite-tracking data from black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes; n = 7) and Laysan albatrosses captured in Alaska (Phoebastria immutabilis; n = 18) with data on fishing effort and distribution from commercial fisheries in the North Pacific in order to assess potential risk from bycatch. Albatrosses were satellite-tagged at-sea in the Central Aleutian Islands, Alaska, and tracked during the post-breeding season, July-October 2005 and 2006. In Alaskan waters, fishing effort occurred almost exclusively within continental shelf and slope waters. Potential fishery interaction for black-footed albatrosses, which most often frequented shelf-slope waters, was greatest with sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) longline and pot fisheries and with the Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepsis) longline fishery. In contrast, Laysan albatrosses spent as much time over oceanic waters beyond the continental shelf and slope, thereby overlapping less with fisheries in Alaska than black-footed albatrosses. Regionally, Laysan albatrosses had the greatest potential fishery interaction with the Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius) trawl fishery in the Western Aleutian Islands and the sablefish pot fishery in the Central Aleutian Islands. Black-footed albatrosses ranged further beyond Alaskan waters than Laysan albatrosses, overlapping west coast Canada fisheries and pelagic longline fisheries in the subarctic transition domain; Laysan albatrosses remained north of these pelagic fisheries. Due to inter-specific differences in oceanic distribution and habitat use, the overlap of fisheries with the post-breeding distribution of black-footed albatrosses is greater than that for Laysan albatrosses, highlighting inter-specific differences in potential vulnerability to bycatch and risk of population-level impacts from fisheries. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

A novel method of estimating cost of therapy by using patient population characteristics: analysis of fluoroquinolones in various populations with different distributions of renal function.

PubMed

Enzweiler, Kevin A; Bosso, John A; White, Roger L

2003-07-01

Formulary decisions regarding a given drug class are often made in the absence of patient outcome and/or sophisticated pharmacoeconomic data. Analyses that consider factors beyond simple acquisition costs may be useful in such situations. For example, the cost implications of using manufacturers' recommendations for dosing in patients with renal dysfunction may be important, depending on the distribution of various levels of renal function within a patient population. Using four 1000-patient populations representing different renal function distributions and a fifth population of our medical center's distribution, we determined the costs of therapy for intravenous and oral levofloxacin, gatifloxacin, and moxifloxacin for a 10-day course of therapy for community-acquired pneumonia. Costs considered were average wholesale prices (AWPs), 50% of AWP, or same daily price, plus intravenous dose preparation and administration costs when applicable. Costs for each renal function distribution were examined for significant differences with an analysis-of-variance test. Also, costs of failing to adjust dosing regimens for decreased renal function were determined. Differences in fluoroquinolone costs (AWP, 50% AWP, or when matched as the same daily price) among the populations were found. When considering same daily prices, differences among populations ranged from about 35,000 dollars with intravenous gatifloxacin to more than 51,000 dollars for intravenous levofloxacin (all fluoroquinolones, p>0.05). Within a population, differences in costs among the intravenous fluoroquinolones ranged from 47,000-99,000 dollars. Rank orders of the drugs and population costs of therapy were affected by the pricing structure used and varied by the specific population and drug. Differences among the fluoroquinolones or populations were much smaller (<2100 dollars) when considering oral regimens. Costs potentially incurred by failing to adjust dosing for renal function were substantial. Formulary decisions can be facilitated by considering factors such as patient characteristics and related dosing in addition to simple acquisition costs. In our example, consideration of the distribution of renal function within a given patient population and related dosing for these fluoroquinolones revealed potentially important differences within the class.

Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svenning, Jens-Christian; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Marske, Katharine A.; Nógues-Bravo, David; Normand, Signe

2011-10-01

Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i) quantitative and potentially high-resolution predictions of the past organism distributions, (ii) statistically formulated, testable ecological hypotheses regarding past distributions and communities, and (iii) statistical assessment of range determinants. In this article, we provide an overview of applications of SDM to paleobiology, outlining the methodology, reviewing SDM-based studies to paleobiology or at the interface of paleo- and neobiology, discussing assumptions and uncertainties as well as how to handle them, and providing a synthesis and outlook. Key methodological issues for SDM applications to paleobiology include predictor variables (types and properties; special emphasis is given to paleoclimate), model validation (particularly important given the emphasis on cross-temporal predictions in paleobiological applications), and the integration of SDM and genetics approaches. Over the last few years the number of studies using SDM to address paleobiology-related questions has increased considerably. While some of these studies only use SDM (23%), most combine them with genetically inferred patterns (49%), paleoecological records (22%), or both (6%). A large number of SDM-based studies have addressed the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia in biogeography and evolution, especially in Europe, but also in many other regions. SDM-based approaches are also beginning to contribute to a suite of other research questions, such as historical constraints on current distributions and diversity patterns, the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, past community assembly, human paleobiogeography, Holocene paleoecology, and even deep-time biogeography (notably, providing insights into biogeographic dynamics >400 million years ago). We discuss important assumptions and uncertainties that affect the SDM approach to paleobiology - the equilibrium postulate, niche stability, changing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations - as well as ways to address these (ensemble, functional SDM, and non-SDM ecoinformatics approaches). We conclude that the SDM approach offers important opportunities for advances in paleobiology by providing a quantitative ecological perspective, and hereby also offers the potential for an enhanced contribution of paleobiology to ecology and conservation biology, e.g., for estimating climate change impacts and for informing ecological restoration.

A preliminary bioclimatic approach to predicting potential distribution of Phellinus noxious and geographical areas at risk from invasion

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Eric W. I. Pitman; John W. Hanna; Phil G. Cannon; Jane E. Stewart; Norio Sahashi; Yuko Ota; Tsutomu Hattori; Mitsuteru Akiba; Louise Shuey; Robert L. Schlub; Fred Brooks; Ndeme Atibalentja; Alvin M. C. Tang; Regent Y. C. Lam; Mike W. K. Leung; L. M. Chu; H. S. Kwan; Mohd Farid bin Ahmad; Su See Lee; Hsin-Han Lee; Jyh-Nong Tsai; Yu-Ching Huang; Chia-Lin Chung; Ruey-Fen Liou; Mee-Sook Kim

2016-01-01

Phellinus noxius, the cause of brown root-rot disease, is an invasive pathogen that was first described by Corner in Singapore (Corner 1932). It has a wide host range of primarily woody plants representing over 200 species from diverse families (Ann et al. 2002). This pathogen is also widespread, and has been reported to occur in many tropical/subtropical...

Acquisition Review Quarterly. Vol. 4, No. 1, Winter 1997

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-01-01

indicator of this rise of "big government": the staff 3. The Heritage Foundation operates a 24- comprised just 48 people in 1944 un- hour online ...is neutral toward or the last decade ( Shoop , 1995). even discourages cost savings (Prager, Privatization encompasses a range of ac- 1994). In addition...out undermine government efficiency. Values ( Shoop , 1995). The potential for such as equitable distribution of govern- privatization is large

Channel bed particle size distribution procedure used to evaluate watershed cumulative effects for range permit re-issuance on the Santa Fe National Forest

Treesearch

Bruce Sims; Jim Piatt; Lee Johnson; Carol Purchase; John Phillips

1996-01-01

Personnel on the Santa Fe National Forest used methodologies adapted from Bevenger and King (1995) to collect base line particle size data on streams within grazing allotments currently scheduled for permit reissuance. This information was used to determine the relative current health of the watersheds as well as being used in the development of potential alternatives...

Analysis of Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) modeling approach for predicting distributions of fleas implicated as vectors of plague, Yersinia pestis, in California.

PubMed

Adjemian, Jennifer C Z; Girvetz, Evan H; Beckett, Laurel; Foley, Janet E

2006-01-01

More than 20 species of fleas in California are implicated as potential vectors of Yersinia pestis. Extremely limited spatial data exist for plague vectors-a key component to understanding where the greatest risks for human, domestic animal, and wildlife health exist. This study increases the spatial data available for 13 potential plague vectors by using the ecological niche modeling system Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) to predict their respective distributions. Because the available sample sizes in our data set varied greatly from one species to another, we also performed an analysis of the robustness of GARP by using the data available for flea Oropsylla montana (Baker) to quantify the effects that sample size and the chosen explanatory variables have on the final species distribution map. GARP effectively modeled the distributions of 13 vector species. Furthermore, our analyses show that all of these modeled ranges are robust, with a sample size of six fleas or greater not significantly impacting the percentage of the in-state area where the flea was predicted to be found, or the testing accuracy of the model. The results of this study will help guide the sampling efforts of future studies focusing on plague vectors.

The potential for microtechnology applications in energy systems: Results of an experts workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1995-02-01

Microscale technologies, or microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), are currently under development in the United States and abroad. Examples include microsensors, microactuators (including micromotors), and microscale heat exchangers. Typically, microscale devices have features ranging in size from a few microns to several millimeters, with fabrication methods adapted from those developed for the semiconductor industry. Microtechnologies are already being commercialized; initial markets include the biomedical and transportation industries. Applications are being developed in other industries as well. Researchers at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) hypothesize that a significant number of energy applications are possible. These applications range from environmental sensors that support enhanced control of building (or room) temperature and ventilation to microscale heat pumps and microscale heat engines that could collectively provide for kilowatt quantities of energy conversion. If efficient versions of these devices are developed, they could significantly advance the commercialization of distributed energy conversion systems, thereby reducing the energy losses associated with energy distribution. Based upon the potential for energy savings, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Building Technologies (OBT) has proposed a new initiative in energy systems miniaturization. The program would focus on the development of microtechnologies for the manufactured housing sector and would begin in either FY 1997 or FY 1998, ramping up to $5 million per year investment by FY 2001.

New Force Field Model for Propylene Glycol: Insight to Local Structure and Dynamics.

PubMed

Ferreira, Elisabete S C; Voroshylova, Iuliia V; Koverga, Volodymyr A; Pereira, Carlos M; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

2017-12-07

In this work we developed a new force field model (FFM) for propylene glycol (PG) based on the OPLS all-atom potential. The OPLS potential was refined using quantum chemical calculations, taking into account the densities and self-diffusion coefficients. The validation of this new FFM was carried out based on a wide range of physicochemical properties, such as density, enthalpy of vaporization, self-diffusion coefficients, isothermal compressibility, surface tension, and shear viscosity. The molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were performed over a large range of temperatures (293.15-373.15 K). The comparison with other force field models, such as OPLS, CHARMM27, and GAFF, revealed a large improvement of the results, allowing a better agreement with experimental data. Specific structural properties (radial distribution functions, hydrogen bonding and spatial distribution functions) were then analyzed in order to support the adequacy of the proposed FFM. Pure propylene glycol forms a continuous phase, displaying no microstructures. It is shown that the developed FFM gives rise to suitable results not only for pure propylene glycol but also for mixtures by testing its behavior for a 50 mol % aqueous propylene glycol solution. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the addition of water to the PG phase produces a homogeneous solution and that the hydration interactions prevail over the propylene glycol self-association interactions.

Decline of flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) at the margin of the species' distribution range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokinen, Henri; Wennhage, Håkan; Lappalainen, Antti; Ådjers, Kaj; Rask, Martti; Norkko, Alf

2015-11-01

The Baltic Sea is undergoing large-scale environmental change due to eutrophication, climate change, over-exploitation and habitat destruction, with subsequent degradation of living conditions for many fish species. Signs of this unfavorable development are seen as population declines in species affected. We provide the first synthesis and characterization of the recent population decline in European flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) in the northern Baltic Sea, using available fishery-independent data from the Finnish coast, which is at the margin of the distribution range of this species. The objective was to document recent changes in the flounder population, identify the onset and quantify the magnitude of the change. The results showed substantial decreases in flounder numbers and biomass across the whole study area during recent decades. Based on the time series data available, flounder abundances declined by 46-97% from the 1990s to the 2000s, with top values in the mid-1990s and current low levels reached in the early 2000s. Additionally, signs of decreasing flounder size and condition were also observed. We discuss potential reasons for the development in terms of environmental change and fishing, and identify potential bottlenecks for population maintenance and mechanisms behind population change, thereby contributing to our general understanding of marginal flounder populations.

The porcupine caribou herd

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, Brad; Douglas, David C.; Walsh, Noreen E.; Young, Donald D.; McCabe, Thomas R.; Russell, Donald E.; White, Robert G.; Cameron, Raymond D.; Whitten, Kenneth R.; Douglas, David C.; Reynolds, Patricia E.; Rhode, E.B.

2002-01-01

Documentation of the natural range of variation in ecological, life history, and physiological characteristics of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) of the Porcupine caribou herd is a necessary base for detecting or predicting any potential effects of industrial development on the performance (e.g., distribution, demography, weight-gain of individuals) of the herd. To demonstrate an effect of development, post-development performance must differ from pre-development performance while accounting for any natural environmental trends.We had 2 working hypotheses for our investigations: 1) performance of the Porcupine caribou herd was associated with environmental patterns and habitat quality, and 2) access to important habitats was a key influence on demography.We sought to document the range of natural variation in habitat conditions, herd size, demography (defined here as survival and reproduction), sources and magnitude of mortality, distribution, habitat use, and weight gain and loss, and to develop an understanding of the interactions among these characteristics of the herd.In addition, we investigated ways that we could use this background information, combined with auxiliary information from the adjacent Central Arctic caribou herd, to predict the direction and magnitude of any potential effects of industrial oil development in the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge on Porcupine caribou herd calf survival on the herd's calving grounds during June.

Bioavailability of the Nano-Unit 14C-Agrochemicals Under Various Water Potential.

PubMed

Jung, S C; Kim, H G; Kuk, Y I; Ahn, H G; Senseman, S A; Lee, D J

2015-08-01

The study was conducted to investigate the effects of water potential on bioavailability of the nano-unit 14C-cafenstrole, 14C-pretilachlor, 14C-benfuresate, 14C-simetryn and 14C-oxyfluorfen applied with or without dimepiperate or daimuron under various water potential conditions. The highest bioavailable concentration in soil solution (BCSS) was found at 60% soil moisture, while the lowest occurred at 50% soil moisture for soil-applied alone or in combination. All water potential conditions differed significantly from each other with variations in total bioavailable amount in soil solution (TBSS) when either dimepiperate or daimuron were added to the soil, and changes were directly proportional to variations in water potential. Across all treatments, TBSS at 80% soil moisture was three to four times greater than that at 50% soil moisture when applied alone or in combination with dimepiperate or daimuron. Cafenstrole and simetryn had distribution coefficient (Kd) values <64 ml g-1 and a TBSS ranging from 10 to 44 ng g-1 soil, regardless of water potential conditions applied alone or in combination. Pretilachlor and benfuresate had Kd values <15 ml g-1 and a TBSS range of 38 to 255 ng g-1 soil when applied with or without dimepiperate or daimuron.

Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

PubMed

Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

2017-05-01

Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Distribution of Animal Drugs among Curd, Whey, and Milk Protein Fractions in Spiked Skim Milk and Whey.

PubMed

Shappell, Nancy W; Shelver, Weilin L; Lupton, Sara J; Fanaselle, Wendy; Van Doren, Jane M; Hakk, Heldur

2017-02-01

It is important to understand the partitioning of drugs in processed milk and milk products, when drugs are present in raw milk, in order to estimate the potential consumer exposure. Radioisotopically labeled erythromycin, ivermectin, ketoprofen, oxytetracycline, penicillin G, sulfadimethoxine, and thiabendazole were used to evaluate the distribution of animal drugs among rennet curd, whey, and protein fractions from skim cow milk. Our previous work reported the distribution of these same drugs between skim and fat fractions of milk. Drug distribution between curd and whey was significantly correlated (R 2 = 0.70) to the drug's lipophilicity (log P), with improved correlation using log D (R 2 = 0.95). Distribution of drugs was concentration independent over the range tested (20-2000 nM). With the exception of thiabendazole and ivermectin, more drug was associated with whey protein than casein on a nmol/g protein basis (oxytetracycline experiment not performed). These results provide insights into the distribution of animal drug residues, if present in cow milk, among milk fractions, with possible extrapolation to milk products.

Challenges of predicting the potential distribution of a slow-spreading invader: a habitat suitability map for an invasive riparian tree

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.

2011-01-01

Understanding the potential spread of invasive species is essential for land managers to prevent their establishment and restore impacted habitat. Habitat suitability modeling provides a tool for researchers and managers to understand the potential extent of invasive species spread. Our goal was to use habitat suitability modeling to map potential habitat of the riparian plant invader, Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia). Russian olive has invaded riparian habitat across North America and is continuing to expand its range. We compiled 11 disparate datasets for Russian olive presence locations (n = 1,051 points and 139 polygons) in the western US and used Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling to develop two habitat suitability maps for Russian olive in the western United States: one with coarse-scale water data and one with fine-scale water data. Our models were able to accurately predict current suitable Russian olive habitat (Coarse model: training AUC = 0.938, test AUC = 0.907; Fine model: training AUC = 0.923, test AUC = 0.885). Distance to water was the most important predictor for Russian olive presence in our coarse-scale water model, but it was only the fifth most important variable in the fine-scale model, suggesting that when water bodies are considered on a fine scale, Russian olive does not necessarily rely on water. Our model predicted that Russian olive has suitable habitat further west from its current distribution, expanding into the west coast and central North America. Our methodology proves useful for identifying potential future areas of invasion. Model results may be influenced by locations of cultivated individuals and sampling bias. Further study is needed to examine the potential for Russian olive to invade beyond its current range. Habitat suitability modeling provides an essential tool for enhancing our understanding of invasive species spread.

Application of the Basin Characterization Model to Estimate In-Place Recharge and Runoff Potential in the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.

2007-01-01

A regional-scale water-balance model was used to estimate recharge and runoff potential and support U.S. Geological Survey efforts to develop a better understanding of water availability for the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system (BARCAS) study in White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah. The water-balance model, or Basin Characterization Model (BCM), was used to estimate regional ground-water recharge for the 13 hydrographic areas in the study area. The BCM calculates recharge by using a distributed-parameter, water-balance method and monthly climatic boundary conditions. The BCM requires geographic information system coverages of soil, geology, and topographic information with monthly time-varying climatic conditions of air temperature and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt are distributed spatially with process models. When combined with surface properties of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of bedrock and alluvium, the potential water available for in-place recharge and runoff is calculated using monthly time steps using a grid scale of 866 feet (270 meters). The BCM was used with monthly climatic inputs from 1970 to 2004, and results were averaged to provide an estimate of the average annual recharge for the BARCAS study area. The model estimates 526,000 acre-feet of potential in-place recharge and approximately 398,000 acre-feet of potential runoff. Assuming 15 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, the model estimates average annual ground-water recharge for the BARCAS area of about 586,000 acre-feet. When precipitation is extrapolated to the long-term climatic record (1895-2006), average annual recharge is estimated to be 530,000 acre-feet, or about 9 percent less than the recharge estimated for 1970-2004.

Measurement and validation of benchmark-quality thick-target tungsten X-ray spectra below 150 kVp.

PubMed

Mercier, J R; Kopp, D T; McDavid, W D; Dove, S B; Lancaster, J L; Tucker, D M

2000-11-01

Pulse-height distributions of two constant potential X-ray tubes with fixed anode tungsten targets were measured and unfolded. The measurements employed quantitative alignment of the beam, the use of two different semiconductor detectors (high-purity germanium and cadmium-zinc-telluride), two different ion chamber systems with beam-specific calibration factors, and various filter and tube potential combinations. Monte Carlo response matrices were generated for each detector for unfolding the pulse-height distributions into spectra incident on the detectors. These response matrices were validated for the low error bars assigned to the data. A significant aspect of the validation of spectra, and a detailed characterization of the X-ray tubes, involved measuring filtered and unfiltered beams at multiple tube potentials (30-150 kVp). Full corrections to ion chamber readings were employed to convert normalized fluence spectra into absolute fluence spectra. The characterization of fixed anode pitting and its dominance over exit window plating and/or detector dead layer was determined. An Appendix of tabulated benchmark spectra with assigned error ranges was developed for future reference.

Addressing Potential Cumulative Impacts of Development on Threatened Species: The Case of the Endangered Black-Throated Finch

PubMed Central

Vanderduys, Eric Peter; Reside, April E.; Grice, Anthony; Rechetelo, Juliana

2016-01-01

Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development, policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However, developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland's Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted, extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland, Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore, insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning, especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection. PMID:26934622

Projected future distribution of date palm and its potential use in alleviating micronutrient deficiency.

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Nojoumian, Amir Hadi; Esmaeili, Atefeh; Toghyani, Mehdi

2016-03-15

Micronutrient deficiency develops when nutrient intake does not match nutritional requirements for maintaining healthy tissue and organ functions which may have long-ranging effects on health, learning ability and productivity. Inadequacy of iron, zinc and vitamin A are the most important micronutrient deficiencies. Consumption of a 100 g portion of date flesh from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) has been reported to meet approximately half the daily dietary recommended intake of these micronutrients. This study investigated the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under future climates to address its potential long-term use as a food commodity to tackle micronutrient deficiencies in some developing countries. Modelling outputs indicated large shifts in areas conducive to date palm cultivation, based on global-scale alteration over the next 60 years. Most of the regions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies were projected to become highly conducive for date palm cultivation. These results could inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying areas to cultivate this nutritionally important crop in the future to support the alleviation of micronutrient deficiencies. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Loading of mass spectrometry ion trap with Th ions by laser ablation for nuclear frequency standard application.

PubMed

Borisyuk, Petr V; Derevyashkin, Sergey P; Khabarova, Ksenia Y; Kolachevsky, Nikolay N; Lebedinsky, Yury Y; Poteshin, Sergey S; Sysoev, Alexey A; Tkalya, Evgeny V; Tregubov, Dmitry O; Troyan, Viktor I; Vasiliev, Oleg S; Yakovlev, Valery P; Yudin, Valery I

2017-08-01

We describe an original multisectional quadrupole ion trap aimed to realize nuclear frequency standard based on the unique isomer transition in thorium nucleus. It is shown that the system effectively operates on Th + , Th 2+ and Th 3+ ions produced by laser ablation of metallic thorium-232 target. Laser intensity used for ablation is about 6 GW/cm 2 . Via applying a bias potential to every control voltage including the RF one, we are able not only to manipulate ions within the energy range as wide as 1-500 eV but to specially adjust trap potentials in order to work mainly with ions that belong to energy distribution maximum and therefore to effectively enhance the number of trapped ions. Measurement of energy distributions of 232 Th + , 232 Th 2+ , 232 Th 3+ ions obtained by laser ablation allows us to define optimal potential values for trapping process. Observed number of ions inside trap in dependence on trapping time is found to obey an unusually slow - logarithmic decay law that needs more careful study.

First report of Blastocystis infections in cattle in China.

PubMed

Zhu, Weining; Tao, Wei; Gong, Binbin; Yang, Hang; Li, Yijing; Song, Mingxin; Lu, Yixin; Li, Wei

2017-11-15

Blastocystis is one of the most common intestinal protists of humans and can also infect a variety of other mammals and birds. Blastocystis infections and subtype distribution in cattle have been documented, while nothing is known about those in China. Herein, a total of 526 dairy cattle from northeast China were sampled and investigated for the prevalence and genetic characteristics of Blastocystis and the potential role of bovine animals in zoonotic transmission of Blastocystis. The parasite was identified in 54 (10.3%) fecal specimens by nested PCR and DNA sequencing of the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene. Sequence analysis enabled identification of four Blastocystis subtypes (STs). Among those, subtype ST10 (75.9%, 41/54) has the highest frequency, followed by ST14 (18.5%, 10/54), ST4 (3.7%, 2/54), and ST5 (1.9%, 1/54). High prevalence and widespread distribution of ST10 and ST14 in cattle observed herein, together with analysis of their host distribution patterns in earlier studies, indicated some host-adapted potential in the two subtypes. The identification of human-pathogenic subtypes ST4 and ST5 might imply a potential zoonotic risk of cattle origin. This is the first study exploring the prevalence and genetic characteristics of Blastocystis in cattle in China. The host range of subtype ST4 was extended. The findings of this study should be helpful for a better understanding of the epidemiology and public health potential of Blastocystis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Data-driven mapping of the potential mountain permafrost distribution.

PubMed

Deluigi, Nicola; Lambiel, Christophe; Kanevski, Mikhail

2017-07-15

Existing mountain permafrost distribution models generally offer a good overview of the potential extent of this phenomenon at a regional scale. They are however not always able to reproduce the high spatial discontinuity of permafrost at the micro-scale (scale of a specific landform; ten to several hundreds of meters). To overcome this lack, we tested an alternative modelling approach using three classification algorithms belonging to statistics and machine learning: Logistic regression, Support Vector Machines and Random forests. These supervised learning techniques infer a classification function from labelled training data (pixels of permafrost absence and presence) with the aim of predicting the permafrost occurrence where it is unknown. The research was carried out in a 588km 2 area of the Western Swiss Alps. Permafrost evidences were mapped from ortho-image interpretation (rock glacier inventorying) and field data (mainly geoelectrical and thermal data). The relationship between selected permafrost evidences and permafrost controlling factors was computed with the mentioned techniques. Classification performances, assessed with AUROC, range between 0.81 for Logistic regression, 0.85 with Support Vector Machines and 0.88 with Random forests. The adopted machine learning algorithms have demonstrated to be efficient for permafrost distribution modelling thanks to consistent results compared to the field reality. The high resolution of the input dataset (10m) allows elaborating maps at the micro-scale with a modelled permafrost spatial distribution less optimistic than classic spatial models. Moreover, the probability output of adopted algorithms offers a more precise overview of the potential distribution of mountain permafrost than proposing simple indexes of the permafrost favorability. These encouraging results also open the way to new possibilities of permafrost data analysis and mapping. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms and distribution of ion channels in retinal ganglion cells: using temperature as an independent variable.

PubMed

Fohlmeister, Jürgen F; Cohen, Ethan D; Newman, Eric A

2010-03-01

Trains of action potentials of rat and cat retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) were recorded intracellularly across a temperature range of 7-37 degrees C. Phase plots of the experimental impulse trains were precision fit using multicompartment simulations of anatomically reconstructed rat and cat RGCs. Action potential excitation was simulated with a "Five-channel model" [Na, K(delayed rectifier), Ca, K(A), and K(Ca-activated) channels] and the nonspace-clamped condition of the whole cell recording was exploited to determine the channels' distribution on the dendrites, soma, and proximal axon. At each temperature, optimal phase-plot fits for RGCs occurred with the same unique channel distribution. The "waveform" of the electrotonic current was found to be temperature dependent, which reflected the shape changes in the experimental action potentials and confirmed the channel distributions. The distributions are cell-type specific and adequate for soma and dendritic excitation with a safety margin. The highest Na-channel density was found on an axonal segment some 50-130 microm distal to the soma, as determined from the temperature-dependent "initial segment-somadendritic (IS-SD) break." The voltage dependence of the gating rate constants remains invariant between 7 and 23 degrees C and between 30 and 37 degrees C, but undergoes a transition between 23 and 30 degrees C. Both gating-kinetic and ion-permeability Q10s remain virtually constant between 23 and 37 degrees C (kinetic Q10s = 1.9-1.95; permeability Q10s = 1.49-1.64). The Q10s systematically increase for T <23 degrees C (kinetic Q10 = 8 at T = 8 degrees C). The Na channels were consistently "sleepy" (non-Arrhenius) for T <8 degrees C, with a loss of spiking for T <7 degrees C.

Integrating multiple distribution models to guide conservation efforts of an endangered toad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Treglia, Michael L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models are used for numerous purposes such as predicting changes in species’ ranges and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Although implications of distribution models for conservation are often implicit, few studies use these tools explicitly to inform conservation efforts. Herein, we illustrate how multiple distribution models developed using distinct sets of environmental variables can be integrated to aid in identification sites for use in conservation. We focus on the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus), which relies on open, sandy streams and surrounding floodplains in southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico. Declines of the species are largely attributed to habitat degradation associated with vegetation encroachment, invasive predators, and altered hydrologic regimes. We had three main goals: 1) develop a model of potential habitat for arroyo toads, based on long-term environmental variables and all available locality data; 2) develop a model of the species’ current habitat by incorporating recent remotely-sensed variables and only using recent locality data; and 3) integrate results of both models to identify sites that may be employed in conservation efforts. We used a machine learning technique, Random Forests, to develop the models, focused on riparian zones in southern California. We identified 14.37% and 10.50% of our study area as potential and current habitat for the arroyo toad, respectively. Generally, inclusion of remotely-sensed variables reduced modeled suitability of sites, thus many areas modeled as potential habitat were not modeled as current habitat. We propose such sites could be made suitable for arroyo toads through active management, increasing current habitat by up to 67.02%. Our general approach can be employed to guide conservation efforts of virtually any species with sufficient data necessary to develop appropriate distribution models.

The Effects of Governmental Protected Areas and Social Initiatives for Land Protection on the Conservation of Mexican Amphibians

PubMed Central

Ochoa-Ochoa, Leticia; Urbina-Cardona, J. Nicolás; Vázquez, Luis-Bernardo; Flores-Villela, Oscar; Bezaury-Creel, Juan

2009-01-01

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs. PMID:19721719

Influence of the contact potential and space-charge effect on the performance of a Stoffel-Johnson design electron source for inverse photoemission spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maniraj, M.; Barman, Sudipta Roy

By imaging the spatial intensity distribution of the electrons from a Stoffel-Johnson (SJ) type low energy electron source for inverse photoemission spectroscopy (IPES), we find that the focus is distorted when the beam current exceeds the limiting value due to space charge effect. The space charge effect and the contact potential difference suppress the beam current at low energies (<10 eV). In this work, we show that these limitations of the SJ source can be overcome by compensation of the contact potential difference between the cathode and the lens electrodes and an uniform well focused electron beam with the set kineticmore » energy can be obtained. The size of the electron beam is around 1 mm full width at half maximum over the whole energy range of 5 to 30 eV generally used for IPES. The compensation of the contact potential difference also enhances the beam current substantially at low energies (<10 eV) and uniform beam current is achieved for the whole energy range. We find that the drift in the electron beam position is sensitive to the lens electrode separation and it is about 1 mm over the whole energy range. By measuring the n = 1 image potential state on Cu(100), we show that the resolution is better when the cathode filament current is set to lower values.« less

Bioaccumulation and elimination kinetics of hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (2'-OH-BDE68 and 4-OH-BDE90) and their distribution pattern in common carp (Cyprinus carpio).

PubMed

Zhao, Hongxia; Zhang, Guolong; Liu, Sisi; Qu, Baocheng; Wang, Yanli; Hu, Dingfei; Jiang, Jingqiu; Quan, Xie; Chen, Jingwen

2014-06-15

Hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (OH-PBDEs) have attracted wide concerns due to their toxicities and universal presence in wildlife and humans. The relatively high Kow values of OH-PBDEs imply these compounds may have a significant bioaccumulation potential, but so far, the existing data provide little information regarding the kinetics of uptake and depuration in any organisms. Here we exposed common carps separately to two OH-PBDEs, 2'-OH-BDE68 and 4-OH-BDE90, for 30 days (d) in a flow-through system, followed by a 60-d depuration period in clean water to investigate compound-specific bioaccumulation and tissue distribution. Two OH-PBDEs could accumulate in common carp, and the high concentration was observed in liver or kidney. The uptake rates (k1) of two OH-PBDEs ranged from 0.15 to 21.3 d(-1) in fish, and the elimination rates (k2) ranged from 0.027 to 0.075 d(-1), which leaded to their BCF values in 4.8-299.2 ranges. Half-lives ranged from 9.2 d to 25.6 d. The exposure concentration significantly affected BCF values but didn't change their relative compositions in liver, kidney and muscle after a long exposure time. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically assess uptake, depuration kinetics and tissue distribution for OH-PBDEs via a controlled experimental animal model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing global range expansion in a cryptic species complex: insights from the red seaweed genus Asparagopsis (Florideophyceae).

PubMed

Zanolla, Marianela; Altamirano, María; Carmona, Raquel; De la Rosa, Julio; Souza-Egipsy, Virginia; Sherwood, Alison; Tsiamis, Konstantinos; Barbosa, Ana Márcia; Muñoz, Antonio Román; Andreakis, Nikos

2018-02-01

The mitochondrial genetic diversity, distribution and invasive potential of multiple cryptic operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of the red invasive seaweed Asparagopsis were assessed by studying introduced Mediterranean and Hawaiian populations. Invasive behavior of each Asparagopsis OTU was inferred from phylogeographic reconstructions, past historical demographic dynamics, recent range expansion assessments and future distributional predictions obtained from demographic models. Genealogical networks resolved Asparagopsis gametophytes and tetrasporophytes into four A. taxiformis and one A. armata cryptic OTUs. Falkenbergia isolates of A. taxiformis L3 were recovered for the first time in the western Mediterranean Sea and represent a new introduction for this area. Neutrality statistics supported past range expansion for A. taxiformis L1 and L2 in Hawaii. On the other hand, extreme geographic expansion and an increase in effective population size were found only for A. taxiformis L2 in the western Mediterranean Sea. Distribution models predicted shifts of the climatically suitable areas and population expansion for A. armata L1 and A. taxiformis L1 and L2. Our integrated study confirms a high invasive risk for A. taxiformis L1 and L2 in temperate and tropical areas. Despite the differences in predictions among modelling approaches, a number of regions were identified as zones with high invasion risk for A. taxiformis L2. Since range shifts are likely climate-driven phenomena, future invasive behavior cannot be excluded for the rest of the lineages. © 2017 Phycological Society of America.

Reallocation in modal aerosol models: impacts on predicting aerosol radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korhola, T.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.; Partanen, A.-I.; Laaksonen, A.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Romakkaniemi, S.

2013-08-01

In atmospheric modelling applications the aerosol particle size distribution is commonly represented by modal approach, in which particles in different size ranges are described with log-normal modes within predetermined size ranges. Such method includes numerical reallocation of particles from a mode to another for example during particle growth, leading to potentially artificial changes in the aerosol size distribution. In this study we analysed how this reallocation affects climatologically relevant parameters: cloud droplet number concentration, aerosol-cloud interaction coefficient and light extinction coefficient. We compared these parameters between a modal model with and without reallocation routines, and a high resolution sectional model that was considered as a reference model. We analysed the relative differences of the parameters in different experiments that were designed to cover a wide range of dynamic aerosol processes occurring in the atmosphere. According to our results, limiting the allowed size ranges of the modes and the following numerical remapping of the distribution by reallocation, leads on average to underestimation of cloud droplet number concentration (up to 100%) and overestimation of light extinction (up to 20%). The analysis of aerosol first indirect effect is more complicated as the ACI parameter can be either over- or underestimated by the reallocating model, depending on the conditions. However, for example in the case of atmospheric new particle formation events followed by rapid particle growth, the reallocation can cause around average 10% overestimation of the ACI parameter. Thus it is shown that the reallocation affects the ability of a model to estimate aerosol climate effects accurately, and this should be taken into account when using and developing aerosol models.