A Brief Review of the Need for Robust Smart Wireless Sensor Systems for Future Propulsion Systems, Distributed Engine Controls, and Propulsion Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Gary W.; Behbahani, Alireza

2012-01-01

Smart Sensor Systems with wireless capability operational in high temperature, harsh environments are a significant component in enabling future propulsion systems to meet a range of increasingly demanding requirements. These propulsion systems must incorporate technology that will monitor engine component conditions, analyze the incoming data, and modify operating parameters to optimize propulsion system operations. This paper discusses the motivation towards the development of high temperature, smart wireless sensor systems that include sensors, electronics, wireless communication, and power. The challenges associated with the use of traditional wired sensor systems will be reviewed and potential advantages of Smart Sensor Systems will be discussed. A brief review of potential applications for wireless smart sensor networks and their potential impact on propulsion system operation, with emphasis on Distributed Engine Control and Propulsion Health Management, will be given. A specific example related to the development of high temperature Smart Sensor Systems based on silicon carbide electronics will be discussed. It is concluded that the development of a range of robust smart wireless sensor systems are a foundation for future development of intelligent propulsion systems with enhanced capabilities.

Recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine or 'ecstasy': Current perspective and future research prospects.

PubMed

Parrott, Andrew C; Downey, Luke A; Roberts, Carl A; Montgomery, Cathy; Bruno, Raimondo; Fox, Helen C

2017-08-01

The purpose of this article is to debate current understandings about the psychobiological effects of recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or 'ecstasy'), and recommend theoretically-driven topics for future research. Recent empirical findings, especially those from novel topic areas were reviewed. Potential causes for the high variance often found in group findings were also examined. The first empirical reports into psychobiological and psychiatric aspects from the early 1990s concluded that regular users demonstrated some selective psychobiological deficits, for instance worse declarative memory, or heightened depression. More recent research has covered a far wider range of psychobiological functions, and deficits have emerged in aspects of vision, higher cognitive skill, neurohormonal functioning, and foetal developmental outcomes. However, variance levels are often high, indicating that while some recreational users develop problems, others are less affected. Potential reasons for this high variance are debated. An explanatory model based on multi-factorial causation is then proposed. A number of theoretically driven research topics are suggested, in order to empirically investigate the potential causes for these diverse psychobiological deficits. Future neuroimaging studies should study the practical implications of any serotonergic and/or neurohormonal changes, using a wide range of functional measures.

Parametric Analyses of Potential Effects on Upper Tropospheric/Lower Stratospheric Ozone Chemistry by a Future Fleet of High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) Type Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dutta, Mayurakshi; Patten, Kenneth O.; Wuebbles,Donald J.

2005-01-01

This report analyzed the potential impact of projected fleets of HSCT aircraft (currently not under development) through a series of parametric analyses that examine the envelope of potential effects on ozone over a range of total fuel burns, emission indices of nitrogen oxides, and cruise altitudes.

Current and future effects of global change on a hotspot's freshwater diversity.

PubMed

Gallardo, Belinda; Bogan, Arthur E; Harun, Sahana; Jainih, Leonardo; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Pizarro, Manuel; Rahim, Khairul Adha; Sousa, Ronaldo; Virdis, Salvatore G P; Zieritz, Alexandra

2018-04-19

Deforestation, climate change and invasive species constitute three global threats to biodiversity that act synergistically. However, drivers and rates of loss of freshwater biodiversity now and in the future are poorly understood. Here we focus on the potential impacts of global change on freshwater mussels (Order Unionida) in Sundaland (SE Asia), a vulnerable group facing global declines and recognized indicators of overall freshwater biodiversity. We used an ensemble of distribution models to identify habitats potentially suitable for freshwater mussels and their change under a range of climate, deforestation and invasion scenarios. Our data and models revealed that, at present, Sundaland features 47 and 32 Mha of habitat that can be considered environmentally suitable for native and invasive freshwater mussels, respectively. We anticipate that by 2050, the area suitable for palm oil cultivation may expand between 8 and 44 Mha, representing an annual increase of 2-11%. This is expected to result in a 20% decrease in suitable habitat for native mussels, a drop that reaches 30% by 2050 when considering concomitant climate change. In contrast, the habitat potentially suitable for invasive mussels may increase by 44-56% under 2050 future scenarios. Consequently, native mussels may compete for habitat, food resources and fish hosts with invasive mussels across approximately 60% of their suitable range. Our projections can be used to guide future expeditions to monitor the conservation status of freshwater biodiversity, and potentially reveal populations of endemic species on the brink of extinction. Future conservation measures-most importantly the designation of nature reserves-should take into account trends in freshwater biodiversity generally, and particularly species such as freshwater mussels, vital to safeguard fundamental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa Ana; Muñoz, Jesús; Rodríguez-Tapia, Gerardo; Feria Arroyo, T. Patricia; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex

2013-01-01

Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful. PMID:24260411

Application of advanced technologies to future military transports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Rodney L.; Lange, Roy H.; Wagner, Richard D.

1990-01-01

Long range military transport technologies are addressed with emphasis of defining the potential benefits of the hybrid laminar flow control (HLFC) concept currently being flight tested. Results of a 1990's global range transport study are presented showing the expected payoff from application of advanced technologies. Technology forecast for military transports is also presented.

Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis H. Flather

2006-01-01

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and...

75 FR 1568 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-12

... designation. The majority of the total future baseline impacts are associated with development projects ($6.4... development projects. The DEA estimates that total potential incremental economic impacts in areas proposed as..., the range in total incremental impacts is due to the range in development forecasts. The lack of...

Increased genetic variation and evolutionary potential drive the success of an invasive grass

PubMed Central

Lavergne, Sébastien; Molofsky, Jane

2007-01-01

Despite the increasing biological and economic impacts of invasive species, little is known about the evolutionary mechanisms that favor geographic range expansion and evolution of invasiveness in introduced species. Here, we focus on the invasive wetland grass Phalaris arundinacea L. and document the evolutionary consequences that resulted from multiple and uncontrolled introductions into North America of genetic material native to different European regions. Continental-scale genetic variation occurring in reed canarygrass' European range has been reshuffled and recombined within North American introduced populations, giving rise to a number of novel genotypes. This process alleviated genetic bottlenecks throughout reed canarygrass' introduced range, including in peripheral populations, where depletion of genetic diversity is expected and is observed in the native range. Moreover, reed canarygrass had higher genetic diversity and heritable phenotypic variation in its invasive range relative to its native range. The resulting high evolutionary potential of invasive populations allowed for rapid selection of genotypes with higher vegetative colonization ability and phenotypic plasticity. Our results show that repeated introductions of a single species may inadvertently create harmful invaders with high adaptive potential. Such invasive species may be able to evolve in response to changing climate, allowing them to have increasing impact on native communities and ecosystems in the future. More generally, multiple immigration events may thus trigger future adaptation and geographic spread of a species population by preventing genetic bottlenecks and generating genetic novelties through recombination. PMID:17360447

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Wiser, R.; Sandor, D.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.

PubMed

Kistner, Erica Jean

2017-12-08

The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål; Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has recently emerged as a harmful pest of horticultural crops in North America and Europe. Native to East Asia, this highly polyphagous insect is spreading rapidly worldwide. Climate change will add further complications to managing this species in terms of both geographic distribution and population growth. This study used CLIMEX to compare potential H. halys distribution under recent and future climate models using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H. Simulated changes in seasonal phenology and voltinism were examined. Under the possible future climate scenarios, suitable range in Europe expands northward. In North America, the suitable H. halys range shifts northward into Canada and contracts from its southern temperature range limits in the United States due to increased heat stress. Prolonged periods of warm temperatures resulted in longer H. halys growing seasons. However, future climate scenarios indicated that rising summer temperatures decrease H. halys growth potential compared to recent climatic conditions, which in turn, may reduce mid-summer crop damage. Climate change may increase the number of H. halys generations produced annually, thereby enabling the invasive insect to become multivoltine in the northern latitudes of North America and Europe where it is currently reported to be univoltine. These results indicate prime horticultural production areas in Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern Canada are at greatest risk from H. halys under both current and possible future climates. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

The Future of E-Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarke, Alan

2007-01-01

In this article, the author reflects on the potential benefits of e-learning. E-learning is not a single strand but is multifaceted, covering a wide range of approaches and methods. One major but general benefit is that learning with technology can be motivating. E-learning has the potential to motivate, develop confidence and self-esteem,…

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.

2012-06-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.

2012-12-01

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hand, M. M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

A potassium Rankine multimegawatt nuclear electric propulsion concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeister, E.; Rovang, R.; Mills, J.; Sercel, J.; Frisbee, R.

1990-01-01

Multimegawatt nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) has been identified as a potentially attractive option for future space exploratory missions. A liquid-metal-cooled reactor, potassium Rankine power system that is being developed is suited to fulfill this application. The key features of the nuclear power system are described, and system characteristics are provided for various potential NEP power ranges and operational lifetimes. The results of recent mission studies are presented to illustrate some of the potential benefits to future space exploration to be gained from high-power NEP. Specifically, mission analyses have been performed to assess the mass and trip time performance of advanced NEP for both cargo and piloted missions to Mars.

Genetic Diversity and Ecological Niche Modelling of Wild Barley: Refugia, Large-Scale Post-LGM Range Expansion and Limited Mid-Future Climate Threats?

PubMed Central

Russell, Joanne; van Zonneveld, Maarten; Dawson, Ian K.; Booth, Allan; Waugh, Robbie; Steffenson, Brian

2014-01-01

Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum) in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare). Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR) and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR) markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s) climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security. PMID:24505252

Solving quantum riddles with neutron scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fobes, David M.; Janoschek, Marc

2017-05-16

Quantum materials exhibit a rich landscape of highly-degenerate quantum states that are widely regarded to hold vast potential for future applications, ranging from power management and transmission, to platforms for quantum computation, to novel versatile sensors and electronics. A key to realizing the promise of future applications is to identify the fundamental energy scales that control the emergence of such quantum states and their properties.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2. Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad; Bain, Richard; Chapman, Jamie

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3. End-Use Electricity Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hostick, Donna; Belzer, David B.; Hadley, Stanton W.

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Ela, Erik; Hein, Jeff

2012-06-15

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a futuremore » through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/« less

Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

2015-12-01

The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

The Future of Satellite-based Lightning Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bocippio, Dennis J.; Christian, Hugh J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The future of satellite-based optical lightning detection, beyond the end of the current TRMM mission, is discussed. Opportunities for new low-earth orbit missions are reviewed. The potential for geostationary observations is significant; such observations provide order-of-magnitude gains in sampling and data efficiency over existing satellite convective observations. The feasibility and performance (resolution, sensitivity) of geostationary measurements using current technology is discussed. In addition to direct and continuous hemispheric observation of lighting, geostationary measurements have the potential (through data assimilation) to dramatically improve short and medium range forecasts, offering benefits to prediction of NOx productions and/or vertical transport.

Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.

PubMed

Amorim, Francisco; Carvalho, Sílvia B; Honrado, João; Rebelo, Hugo

2014-01-01

Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

A biome-scale assessment of the impact of invasive alien plants on ecosystem services in South Africa.

PubMed

van Wilgen, B W; Reyers, B; Le Maitre, D C; Richardson, D M; Schonegevel, L

2008-12-01

This paper reports an assessment of the current and potential impacts of invasive alien plants on selected ecosystem services in South Africa. We used data on the current and potential future distribution of 56 invasive alien plant species to estimate their impact on four services (surface water runoff, groundwater recharge, livestock production and biodiversity) in five terrestrial biomes. The estimated reductions in surface water runoff as a result of current invasions were >3000 million m(3) (about 7% of the national total), most of which is from the fynbos (shrubland) and grassland biomes; the potential reductions would be more than eight times greater if invasive alien plants were to occupy the full extent of their potential range. Impacts on groundwater recharge would be less severe, potentially amounting to approximately 1.5% of the estimated maximum reductions in surface water runoff. Reductions in grazing capacity as a result of current levels of invasion amounted to just over 1% of the potential number of livestock that could be supported. However, future impacts could increase to 71%. A 'biodiversity intactness index' (the remaining proportion of pre-modern populations) ranged from 89% to 71% for the five biomes. With the exception of the fynbos biome, current invasions have almost no impact on biodiversity intactness. Under future levels of invasion, however, these intactness values decrease to around 30% for the savanna, fynbos and grassland biomes, but to even lower values (13% and 4%) for the two karoo biomes. Thus, while the current impacts of invasive alien plants are relatively low (with the exception of those on surface water runoff), the future impacts could be very high. While the errors in these estimates are likely to be substantial, the predicted impacts are sufficiently large to suggest that there is serious cause for concern.

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Kaiser, Lauren R.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

2017-01-01

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensi- fied conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these spe- cies were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai’i for these Kaua’i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Nasal, oral and rectal microbiota of Black lion tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysopygus)

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Vania M.; Vanstreels, Ralph E.T.; Paula, Cátia D.; Kolesnikovas, Cristiane K.M.; Ramos, Maria Christina C.; Coutinho, Selene D.; Martins, Cristiana S.; Pissinatti, Alcides; Catão-Dias, José L.

2014-01-01

Black lion tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysopygus) are endangered callithrichids. Their conservation may require future translocations or reintroductions; however these approaches involve risks of pathogen introduction in the environment and stress-related opportunistic infections in these animals. In order to screen for opportunistic and potential pathogenic bacterial and fungal microbiota, ten free-ranging and ten captive Black lion tamarins were studied and the results compared. Nasal, oral and rectal swabs were collected and cultured for aerobic and facultative anaerobic bacteria and fungi, and a total 203 bacterial and 84 fungal isolates were obtained. Overall, the most frequent organisms were Staphylococcus spp., Bacillus spp., Candida spp. and Aspergillus spp. Microbiota of free-ranging and captive animals were similar in composition. A number of potentially pathogenic organisms were identified, emphasizing the importance of microbiological screening in future translocation or reintroduction conservation management programs. PMID:25763064

Future water demand in California under a broad range of land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

2016-12-01

California continues to be gripped by the most severe drought on record. Most general circulation models agree the state will continue to warm this century and research suggests persistent, long-term droughts may become the new normal, exacerbating an already uncertain water supply future. Population increases and agricultural intensification will likely stress existing, highly variable inter-annual water supplies even further in coming decades. Using the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model, we explore a wide range of potential water demand futures from 2012 to 2062 based on 8 alternative, spatially-explicit (1 km) land use scenarios and land-use related water demand. Scenarios include low and high rates for urbanization, agricultural expansion, and agricultural contraction as well as lowest and highest rates for the combined suite of anthropogenic land uses. Land change values were sampled from county-level historical (1991-2012) land change data and county-level average water use data for urban areas (i.e. municipal and industrial) and annual and perennial cropland. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations for each scenario to better characterize and capture model uncertainty and a range of potential future outcomes. Results show water demand in Mediterranean California was lowest in the low anthropogenic change scenario, dropping an average 2.7 million acre feet (MAF) by 2062. The highest water demand was seen in the high urbanization (+3.2 MAF), high agricultural expansion (+4.1 MAF), and the high anthropogenic (+4.3 MAF) scenarios. Results provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on observed land change and water use trends, helping better inform land and resource management decisions.

Constructing high-accuracy intermolecular potential energy surface with multi-dimension Morse/Long-Range model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Yu; Li, Hui; Le Roy, Robert J.

2018-04-01

Spectroscopically accurate Potential Energy Surfaces (PESs) are fundamental for explaining and making predictions of the infrared and microwave spectra of van der Waals (vdW) complexes, and the model used for the potential energy function is critically important for providing accurate, robust and portable analytical PESs. The Morse/Long-Range (MLR) model has proved to be one of the most general, flexible and accurate one-dimensional (1D) model potentials, as it has physically meaningful parameters, is flexible, smooth and differentiable everywhere, to all orders and extrapolates sensibly at both long and short ranges. The Multi-Dimensional Morse/Long-Range (mdMLR) potential energy model described herein is based on that 1D MLR model, and has proved to be effective and accurate in the potentiology of various types of vdW complexes. In this paper, we review the current status of development of the mdMLR model and its application to vdW complexes. The future of the mdMLR model is also discussed. This review can serve as a tutorial for the construction of an mdMLR PES.

Seed bank and big sagebrush plant community composition in a range margin for big sagebrush

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martyn, Trace E.; Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Burke, Ingrid C.; Laurenroth, William K.

2016-01-01

The potential influence of seed bank composition on range shifts of species due to climate change is unclear. Seed banks can provide a means of both species persistence in an area and local range expansion in the case of increasing habitat suitability, as may occur under future climate change. However, a mismatch between the seed bank and the established plant community may represent an obstacle to persistence and expansion. In big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) plant communities in Montana, USA, we compared the seed bank to the established plant community. There was less than a 20% similarity in the relative abundance of species between the established plant community and the seed bank. This difference was primarily driven by an overrepresentation of native annual forbs and an underrepresentation of big sagebrush in the seed bank compared to the established plant community. Even though we expect an increase in habitat suitability for big sagebrush under future climate conditions at our sites, the current mismatch between the plant community and the seed bank could impede big sagebrush range expansion into increasingly suitable habitat in the future.

The impact of fuels on aircraft technology through the year 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grobman, J.; Reck, G. M.

1980-01-01

In the future, it may be necessary to use jet fuels with a broader range of properties in order to insure a more flexible and reliable supply and to minimize energy consumption and processing costs at the refinery. This paper describes research being conducted to (1) determine the potential range of properties for future jet fuels, (2) establish a data base of fuel property effects on propulsion system components, (3) evolve and evaluate advanced component technology that would permit the use of broader property fuels and (4) identify technical and economic trade-offs within the overall fuel production-air transportation system associated with variations in fuel properties.

Predicted extinction of unique genetic diversity in marine forests of Cystoseira spp.

PubMed

Buonomo, Roberto; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Lacida, Ricardo Bermejo; Engelen, Aschwin H; Serrão, Ester A; Airoldi, Laura

2018-07-01

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracking a Medically Important Spider: Climate Change, Ecological Niche Modeling, and the Brown Recluse (Loxosceles reclusa)

PubMed Central

Saupe, Erin E.; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A.; Vetter, Richard S.

2011-01-01

Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

2016-08-23

Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100, implying that physically plausible upper limits on future sea-level rise might need to be reconsidered.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis, in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis. Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis, thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

PubMed

Kriticos, Darren J; Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security

PubMed Central

Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world’s worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management. PMID:27513336

The influence of coarse-scale environmental features on current and predicted future distributions of narrow-range endemic crayfish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyer, Joseph J.; Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas A.; Bergey, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

1.A major limitation to effective management of narrow-range crayfish populations is the paucity of information on the spatial distribution of crayfish species and a general understanding of the interacting environmental variables that drive current and future potential distributional patterns. 2.Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling Software (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future potential distributions of four endemic crayfish species in the Ouachita Mountains. Current distributions were modelled using climate, geology, soils, land use, landform and flow variables thought to be important to lotic crayfish. Potential changes in the distribution were forecast by using models trained on current conditions and projecting onto the landscape predicted under climate-change scenarios. 3.The modelled distribution of the four species closely resembled the perceived distribution of each species but also predicted populations in streams and catchments where they had not previously been collected. Soils, elevation and winter precipitation and temperature most strongly related to current distributions and represented 6587% of the predictive power of the models. Model accuracy was high for all models, and model predictions of new populations were verified through additional field sampling. 4.Current models created using two spatial resolutions (1 and 4.5km2) showed that fine-resolution data more accurately represented current distributions. For three of the four species, the 1-km2 resolution models resulted in more conservative predictions. However, the modelled distributional extent of Orconectes leptogonopodus was similar regardless of data resolution. Field validations indicated 1-km2 resolution models were more accurate than 4.5-km2 resolution models. 5.Future projected (4.5-km2 resolution models) model distributions indicated three of the four endemic species would have truncated ranges with low occurrence probabilities under the low-emission scenario, whereas two of four species would be severely restricted in range under moderatehigh emissions. Discrepancies in the two emission scenarios probably relate to the exclusion of behavioural adaptations from species-distribution models. 6.These model predictions illustrate possible impacts of climate change on narrow-range endemic crayfish populations. The predictions do not account for biotic interactions, migration, local habitat conditions or species adaptation. However, we identified the constraining landscape features acting on these populations that provide a framework for addressing habitat needs at a fine scale and developing targeted and systematic monitoring programmes.

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075

PubMed Central

Sohl, Terry L.

2014-01-01

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be “suitable” for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges. PMID:25372571

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Langham, Gary M; Schuetz, Justin G; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Langham, Gary M.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U.; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

Effects of climate change on niche shifts of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia.

PubMed

Rounaghi, Iman; Hosseinian Yousefkhani, Seyyed Saeed

2018-01-01

Genus Pseudotrapelus has a wide distribution in North Africa and in the Middle East. In the present study, we modeled the habitat suitability of two Omani species of the genus (Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi) to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on their distribution. Mean diurnal range and precipitation of wettest quarter are the most highly contributed variables for P. jensvindumi and P. dhofarensis, respectively. The potential distribution for P. dhofarensis in the current time covers the southern coastal regions of Oman, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and Socotra Island, but the suitable regions were reduced in the future prediction and limited to Yemen, Socotra Island, and Oman. There have not been any records of the species outside of Oman. Analysis of habitat suitability for P. jensvindumi indicated that the species is restricted to the Al Hajar Mountain of Oman and the southeast coastal region of Iran, but there are no records of the species from Iran. Because mean diurnal range will not be influenced by climate change in future, the potential distribution of the species is not expected to be changed in 2050. All predicted models were performed with the highest AUC (more than 0.97) using the Maxent method. Investigation to find unknown populations of these two species in Iran, Yemen, and Socotra Island is essential for developing conservation programs in the future.

MIPs as Tools in Environmental Biotechnology.

PubMed

Mattiasson, Bo

2015-01-01

Molecular imprints are potentially fantastic constructions. They are selective, robust, and nonbiodegradable if produced from stable polymers. A range of different applications has been presented, everything from separation of enantiomers, via adsorbents for sample preparation before analysis to applications in wastewater treatment. This chapter deals with molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) as tools in environmental biotechnology, a field that has the potential to become very important in the future.

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Jeffrey D.; Moses, Alissa; Burcsu, Theresa

2010-05-01

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.

How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian Tree Sparrows Passer montanus in North America?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Jarnevich, Catherine; Young, Nick; Newman, Greg; Stohlgren, Thomas

2011-01-01

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus, native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. Under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important information for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species.

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

PubMed

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

PubMed Central

Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival. PMID:24752011

Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Barbour, E; Futter, M N; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Caesar, J; Butterfield, D; Jin, L; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Salehin, M

2015-06-01

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.

A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

2015-08-15

Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Interactions Between Land Use, Climate and Hydropower in Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sample, J.

2014-12-01

To promote the transition towards a low carbon economy, the Scottish Government has adopted ambitious energy targets, including generating all electricity from renewable sources by 2020. To achieve this, continued investment will be required across a range of sustainable technologies. Hydropower has a long history in Scotland and the present-day operational capacity of ~1.5 GW makes a substantial contribution to the national energy budget. In addition, there remains potential for ~500 MW of further development, mostly in the form of small to medium size run-of-river schemes. Climate change is expected to lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, leading to changes in both the magnitude and seasonality of river flows. There may also be indirect effects, such as changing land use, enhanced evapotranspiration rates and an increased demand for irrigation, all of which could affect the water available for energy generation. Preliminary assessments of hydropower commonly use flow duration curves (FDCs) to estimate the power generation potential at proposed new sites. In this study, we use spatially distributed modelling to generate daily and monthly FDCs for a range of Scottish catchments using a variety of future land use and climate change scenarios. These are then used to assess Scotland's future hydropower potential under different flow regimes. The results are spatially variable and include large uncertainties, but some consistent patterns emerge. Many locations are predicted to experience enhanced seasonality, with lower power generation potential in the summer months and greater potential during the autumn and winter. Some sites may require infrastructural changes in order to continue operating at optimum efficiency. We discuss the implications and limitations of our results, and highlight design and adaptation options for maximising the resilience of hydropower installations under changing future flow patterns.

Air Traffic Management: Civil/Military Systems and Technologies.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-01

consi-~derably Anthropo- Fig. 8 Increas of System Capcity versus Usable Gain in Traffic Flow Controllable ul R 5. The Future of ATC If we think of...years from 2,000 on we must think of an integrated system, integrating * the ATC-system of the Structure X (Fig. 7) * the aircraft, by improving flight...both civil and military traffic with a range of potential link applications and other information that could be helpful in their future thinking . No

2012 NASA Range Safety Annual Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dumont, Alan G.

2012-01-01

This report provides a NASA Range Safety (NRS) overview for current and potential range users. This report contains articles which cover a variety of subject areas, summaries of various NASA Range Safety Program (RSP) activities performed during the past year, links to past reports, and information on several projects that may have a profound impact on the way business will be conducted in the future. Specific topics discussed in the 2012 NASA Range Safety Annual Report include a program overview and 2012 highlights; Range Safety Training; Independent Assessments; Support to Program Operations at all ranges conducting NASA launch/flight operations; a continuing overview of emerging range safety-related technologies; and status reports from all of the NASA Centers that have Range Safety responsibilities.

Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

PubMed

Konowalik, Kamil; Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław

2017-01-01

In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range.

Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

PubMed Central

Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław

2017-01-01

In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range. PMID:28806731

Is there room for all of us? Renewable energy and Xerospermophilus mohavensis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Tomas E.; Vandergast, Amy G.

2013-01-01

Mohave ground squirrels Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam are small ground-dwelling rodents that have a highly restricted range in the northwest Mojave Desert, California, USA. Their small natural range is further reduced by habitat loss from agriculture, urban development, military training and recreational activities. Development of wind and solar resources for renewable energy has the potential to further reduce existing habitat. We used maximum entropy habitat models with observation data to describe current potential habitat in the context of future renewable energy development in the region. While 16% of historic habitat has been impacted by, or lost to, urbanization at present, an additional 10% may be affected by renewable energy development in the near future. Our models show that X. mohavensis habitat suitability is higher in areas slated for renewable energy development than in surrounding areas. We provide habitat maps that can be used to develop sampling designs, evaluate conservation corridors and inform development planning in the region.

Annual water resources review, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cruz, R.R.

1981-01-01

Ground-water data were collected in 1980 at White Sands Missile Range in south-central New Mexico. The total water pumped at White Sands Missile Range in 1980 was 725,053,000 gallons, which was 32.5 million gallons more than in 1979. The Post Headquarters well field, which produces more than 98 percent of the water used at White Sands Missile Range, pumped 712,909,000 gallons, which was 31.1 million gallons more in 1980 than in 1979. Data were collected for specific Range areas north of the Post Headquarters area that might have potential for future water-supply development. (USGS)

Induced pluripotent stem cells in hematology: current and future applications

PubMed Central

Focosi, D; Amabile, G; Di Ruscio, A; Quaranta, P; Tenen, D G; Pistello, M

2014-01-01

Reprogramming somatic cells into induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells is nowadays approaching effectiveness and clinical grade. Potential uses of this technology include predictive toxicology, drug screening, pathogenetic studies and transplantation. Here, we review the basis of current iPS cell technology and potential applications in hematology, ranging from disease modeling of congenital and acquired hemopathies to hematopoietic stem and other blood cell transplantation. PMID:24813079

Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vessella, Federico; Simeone, Marco Cosimo; Schirone, Bartolomeo

2015-07-01

Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of the Mediterranean Biome, from 130 ka to the present time. Hindcasting implications would deal with a better species risk assessment and conservation management for the future. We modelled present and past occurrence of cork oak using seven ENM algorithms, starting from 63,733 spatially unique presence points at 30 arc-second resolution. Fourteen environmental variables were used and four time slices were considered (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and present time). A threshold-independent evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated by means of ROC curve and fossil or historical evidences were used to validate the results. Four weighted average maps depicted the dynamics of area suitability for cork oak in the last 130 ka. The derived species autoecology allowed its long-term occurrence in the Mediterranean without striking range reduction or shifting. Fossil and historical post-processing validation support the modelled past spatial extension and a neglected species presence at Levantine until the recent time. Despite the severe climatic oscillation since the Last Glacial Maximum, cork oak potential distribution area experienced limited range changes, confirming its strong link with the Mediterranean Basin. The ecological amplitude of Quercus suber could be therefore adopted as a reference to trace the Mediterranean bioclimate area. A better knowledge of the past events of Mediterranean vegetation, a wider range of study species and environmental determinants are essential to inform us about its current state, its sensitivity to human impact and the potential responses to future changes.

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

PubMed Central

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories. PMID:29088254

Kaufman thruster development at Lewis Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerslake, W. R.; Reader, P. D.

1971-01-01

The current status of research programs on mercury electron-bombardment thrusters is reviewed. Future thruster requirements predicted from mission analysis are briefly discussed to establish the relationship with present programs. Thrusters ranging in size from 5 to 150 cm diameter are described. These thrusters have possible near to far term applications extending from station keeping to primary propulsion. Beam currents range from 10 mA to 25 A at accelerating potentials of 500 to 5000 V.

Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lutz, James A.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Franklin, Jerry F.

2010-01-01

Aim  (1) To calculate annual potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET) and climatic water deficit (Deficit) with high spatial resolution; (2) to describe distributions for 17 tree species over a 2300-m elevation gradient in a 3000-km2 landscape relative to AET and Deficit; (3) to examine changes in AET and Deficit between past (c. 1700), present (1971–2000) and future (2020–49) climatological means derived from proxies, observations and projections; and (4) to infer how the magnitude of changing Deficit may contribute to changes in forest structure and composition.Location  Yosemite National Park, California, USA.Methods  We calculated the water balance within Yosemite National Park using a modified Thornthwaite-type method and correlated AET and Deficit with tree species distribution. We used input data sets with different spatial resolutions parameterized for variation in latitude, precipitation, temperature, soil water-holding capacity, slope and aspect. We used climate proxies and climate projections to model AET and Deficit for past and future climate. We compared the modelled future water balance in Yosemite with current species water-balance ranges in North America.Results  We calculated species climatic envelopes over broad ranges of environmental gradients – a range of 310 mm for soil water-holding capacity, 48.3°C for mean monthly temperature (January minima to July maxima), and 918 mm yr−1 for annual precipitation. Tree species means were differentiated by AET and Deficit, and at higher levels of Deficit, species means were increasingly differentiated. Modelled Deficit for all species increased by a mean of 5% between past (c. 1700) and present (1971–2000). Projected increases in Deficit between present and future (2020–49) were 23% across all plots.Main conclusions  Modelled changes in Deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola and Tsuga mertensiana. Fine-scale heterogeneity in soil water-holding capacity, aspect and slope implies that plant water balance may vary considerably within the grid cells of kilometre-scale climate models. Sub-grid-cell soil and topographical data can partially compensate for the lack of spatial heterogeneity in gridded climate data, potentially improving vegetation-change projections in mountainous landscapes with heterogeneous topography.

Systematic testing of flood adaptation options in urban areas through simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2016-04-01

While models can quantify flood risk in great detail, the results are subject to a number of deep uncertainties. Climate dependent drivers such as sea level and rainfall intensities, population growth and economic development all have a strong influence on future flood risk, but future developments can only be estimated coarsely. In such a situation, robust decision making frameworks call for the systematic evaluation of mitigation measures against ensembles of potential futures. We have coupled the urban development software DAnCE4Water and the 1D-2D hydraulic simulation package MIKE FLOOD to create a framework that allows for such systematic evaluations, considering mitigation measures under a variety of climate futures and urban development scenarios. A wide spectrum of mitigation measures can be considered in this setup, ranging from structural measures such as modifications of the sewer network over local retention of rainwater and the modification of surface flow paths to policy measures such as restrictions on urban development in flood prone areas or master plans that encourage compact development. The setup was tested in a 300 ha residential catchment in Melbourne, Australia. The results clearly demonstrate the importance of considering a range of potential futures in the planning process. For example, local rainwater retention measures strongly reduce flood risk a scenario with moderate increase of rain intensities and moderate urban growth, but their performance strongly varies, yielding very little improvement in situations with pronounced climate change. The systematic testing of adaptation measures further allows for the identification of so-called adaptation tipping points, i.e. levels for the drivers of flood risk where the desired level of flood risk is exceeded despite the implementation of (a combination of) mitigation measures. Assuming a range of development rates for the drivers of flood risk, such tipping points can be translated into anticipated time spans over which a measure will be effective. While the new simulation setup is limited to situations where the planner is able to define realistic ranges for the development of drivers of flood risk, it certainly contributes to an improved consideration of deep uncertainties in the planning process. Future work will particularly focus on the application of the framework in a variety of urban development contexts.

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

The universality and the future prospects of physiological energetics: Reply to comments on "Physics of metabolic organization".

PubMed

Jusup, Marko; Sousa, Tânia; Domingos, Tiago; Labinac, Velimir; Marn, Nina; Wang, Zhen; Klanjšček, Tin

2017-03-01

In response to the comments on review "Physics of metabolic organization", we discuss the universality and the future prospects of physiological energetics. The topics range from the role of entropy in modeling living organisms to the apparent ubiquity of the von Bertalanffy curve, and the potential applications of the theory in yet unexplored domains. Tradeoffs in outreach to non-specialists are also briefly considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Future is Now: OpenTERRAworks - Interoperable 2D/3D Landscape Design Software for Integrated Environmental Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Human activities involving significant terrain alteration (e.g., earthworks operations associated with mines, urban development, landslides) can lead to broad-ranging changes in the surrounding terrestrial and aquatic environments. Potential aesthetic impacts can be associated wi...

Nutritional Attributes, Substitutability, Scalability, and Environmental Intensity of an Illustrative Subset of Current and Future Protein Sources for Aquaculture Feeds: Joint Consideration of Potential Synergies and Trade-offs.

PubMed

Pelletier, Nathan; Klinger, Dane H; Sims, Neil A; Yoshioka, Janice-Renee; Kittinger, John N

2018-05-15

Aquaculture is anticipated to play an increasingly important role in global food security because it may represent one of the best opportunities to increase the availability of healthy animal protein in the context of resource and environmental constraints. However, the growth and sustainability of the aquaculture industry faces important bottlenecks with respect to feed resources, which may be derived from diverse sources. Here, using a small but representative subset of potential aquafeed inputs (which we selected to highlight a range of relevant attributes), we review a core suite of considerations that need to be accommodated in concert in order to overcome key bottlenecks to the continued development and expansion of the aquaculture industry. Specifically, we evaluate the nutritional attributes, substitutability, scalability, and resource and environmental intensity of each input. On this basis, we illustrate a range of potential synergies and trade-offs within and across attributes that are characteristic of ingredient types. We posit that the recognition and management of such synergies and trade-offs is imperative to satisfying the multi-objective decision-making associated with sustainable increases in future aquaculture production.

A spatially explicit representation of conservation agriculture for application in global change studies.

PubMed

Prestele, Reinhard; Hirsch, Annette L; Davin, Edouard L; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Verburg, Peter H

2018-05-10

Conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable agricultural management strategy with the potential to alleviate some of the adverse effects of modern, industrial agriculture such as large-scale soil erosion, nutrient leaching and overexploitation of water resources. Moreover, agricultural land managed under CA is proposed to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation through reduced emission of greenhouse gases, increased solar radiation reflection, and the sustainable use of soil and water resources. Due to the lack of official reporting schemes, the amount of agricultural land managed under CA systems is uncertain and spatially explicit information about the distribution of CA required for various modeling studies is missing. Here, we present an approach to downscale present-day national-level estimates of CA to a 5 arcminute regular grid, based on multicriteria analysis. We provide a best estimate of CA distribution and an uncertainty range in the form of a low and high estimate of CA distribution, reflecting the inconsistency in CA definitions. We also design two scenarios of the potential future development of CA combining present-day data and an assessment of the potential for implementation using biophysical and socioeconomic factors. By our estimates, 122-215 Mha or 9%-15% of global arable land is currently managed under CA systems. The lower end of the range represents CA as an integrated system of permanent no-tillage, crop residue management and crop rotations, while the high estimate includes a wider range of areas primarily devoted to temporary no-tillage or reduced tillage operations. Our scenario analysis suggests a future potential of CA in the range of 533-1130 Mha (38%-81% of global arable land). Our estimates can be used in various ecosystem modeling applications and are expected to help identifying more realistic climate mitigation and adaptation potentials of agricultural practices. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gravel resources, urbanization, and future land use, Front Range Urban Corridor, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soule, James M.; Fitch, Harold R.

1974-01-01

An assessment of gravel needs in Front Range Urban Corridor markets to 2000 A.D., based on forecast population increases and urbanization, indicates that adequate resources to meet anticipated needs are potentially available, if future land use does not preclude their extraction. Because of urban encroachment onto gravel-bearing lands, this basic construction material is in short supply nationally and in the Front Range Urban Corridor. Longer hauls, increased prices, and use of alternatives, especially crushed rock aggregate, have resulted. An analysis of possible sequential land uses following gravel mining indicates that a desirable use is for 'real estate' ponds and small lakes. A method for computing gravel reserves, based on planimeter measurement of area of resource-bearing lands and statistical analysis of reliability of thickness and size distribution data, was developed to compute reserves in individual markets. A discussion of the qualitative 'usability' of these reserves is then made for the individual markets.

Through a glass darkly: economics and personalised medicine.

PubMed

Haycox, Alan; Pirmohamed, Munir; McLeod, Claire; Houten, Rachel; Richards, Sarah

2014-11-01

Personalised medicine and pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategies will be of increasing importance in the future, both in terms of healthcare provision and evaluation. It is well recognised that significant variability exists in the response of patients to drugs resulting from genetic or biological variations; however, we are only now gradually becoming aware of the complexities involved. Enormous variability occurs in the risk-benefit ratio that will be experienced by each individual patient as a consequence of their overall genetic make-up. Although not a panacea, enhanced scientific knowledge of the genetic basis for such variability offers the potential for a more 'tailored' approach to prescribing in the future, making it more closely attuned to the needs of the individual patient. Such 'personalised' medicine has the potential to revolutionise care provision in a manner that provides a range of challenges to current structures and processes of 'conventional' healthcare delivery. The aim of this paper is to outline such challenges and analyse potential ways in which they may be addressed in the future. It provides non-expert readers with a non-technical case study of the complexities inherent in the evaluation of a pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategy from a health economic perspective. Wherever possible, technical issues have been minimised; however, references are provided for readers who wish to enhance their knowledge of the pharmacological basis of the case study of cytochrome P450 test-guided treatment. The case study aims simply to illustrate the approach and difficulties encountered in the health economic evaluation of complex pharmacogenetic technologies. Such technologies present a range of new and complex issues which have crucial implications for health economists attempting to obtain an accurate assessment of the 'value' of the technology in clinical practice in an array of patient subgroups. Personalised medicine is the future and this paper highlights how pharmaceutical manufacturers, clinicians, regulators and other stakeholders must all play their part in the inevitable and accelerating move into this complex and uncertain future.

RNAi technologies in agricultural biotechnology: The Toxicology Forum 40th Annual Summer Meeting.

PubMed

Sherman, James H; Munyikwa, Tichafa; Chan, Stephen Y; Petrick, Jay S; Witwer, Kenneth W; Choudhuri, Supratim

2015-11-01

During the 40th Annual Meeting of The Toxicology Forum, the current and potential future science, regulations, and politics of agricultural biotechnology were presented and discussed. The meeting session described herein focused on the technology of RNA interference (RNAi) in agriculture. The general process by which RNAi works, currently registered RNAi-based plant traits, example RNAi-based traits in development, potential use of double stranded RNA (dsRNA) as topically applied pesticide active ingredients, research related to the safety of RNAi, biological barriers to ingested dsRNA, recent regulatory RNAi science reviews, and regulatory considerations related to the use of RNAi in agriculture were discussed. Participants generally agreed that the current regulatory framework is robust and appropriate for evaluating the safety of RNAi employed in agricultural biotechnology and were also supportive of the use of RNAi to develop improved crop traits. However, as with any emerging technology, the potential range of future products, potential future regulatory frameworks, and public acceptance of the technology will continue to evolve. As such, continuing dialogue was encouraged to promote education of consumers and science-based regulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Field emitter displays for future avionics applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Susan K.; Jones, Gary W.; Zimmerman, Steven M.; Blazejewski, Edward R.

1995-06-01

Field emitter array-based display technology offers CRT-like characteristics in a thin flat-panel display with many potential applications for vehicle-mounted, crew workstation, and helmet-mounted displays, as well as many other military and commercial applications. In addition to thinness, high brightness, wide viewing angle, wide temperature range, and low weight, field emitter array displays also offer potential advantages such as row-at-a-time matrix addressability and the ability to be segmented.

Alternative Models for the ERIC Clearinghouse Network.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenwood, P. W.; Weiler, D. M.

The National Center for Educational Communication (NCEC) contracted with Rand to develop a range of potential objectives and structures for the Educational Resources Information Center (ERIC) system that could render it more effective in the future. The Rand study team surveyed the scope and sources of education literature and studied the…

Future long-range transports - Prospects for improved fuel efficiency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagel, A. L.; Alford, W. J., Jr.; Dugan, J. F., Jr.

1975-01-01

A status report is provided on current thinking concerning potential improvements in fuel efficiency and possible alternate fuels. Topics reviewed are: historical trends in airplane efficiency; technological opportunities including supercritical aerodynamics, vortex diffusers, composite materials, propulsion systems, active controls, and terminal-area operations; unconventional design concepts, and hydrogen-fueled airplane.

E-Roadway Animation | Transportation Research | NREL

Science.gov Websites

E-Roadway Animation E-Roadway Animation This animation depicts a potential future transportation scenario in which electric vehicles can be recharged via electrified roadways. E-roadways offer a variety operational range of electric vehicles. Plus, e-roadway power can come from renewable sources. Text version.

Sorghum production and anthracnose disease management in future global energy and food security

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sorghum is the fifth most important cereal crop in world commerce with uses ranging from animal feed, food, in brewery, and recently as a potential source of biofuel. With the expected increase in the world's population, crop production outputs must be increased. Annual cereal production, including...

Kaufman thruster development at Lewis Research Center (LeRC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerslake, W. R.; Reader, P. D.

1971-01-01

The current status of research programs on mercury electron bombardment thrusters is reviewed. Future thruster requirements predicted from mission analysis are briefly discussed to establish the relationship with present programs. Thrusters ranging in size from 5 to 150 cm diameter are described. These thrusters have possible near to far term applications extending from stationkeeping to primary propulsion. Beam currents range from 10 mA at to 25 A at accelerating potentials of 500 to 5000 V.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Marine mollusc predator-escape behaviour altered by near-future carbon dioxide levels

PubMed Central

Watson, Sue-Ann; Lefevre, Sjannie; McCormick, Mark I.; Domenici, Paolo; Nilsson, Göran E.; Munday, Philip L.

2014-01-01

Ocean acidification poses a range of threats to marine invertebrates; however, the potential effects of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) on marine invertebrate behaviour are largely unknown. Marine gastropod conch snails have a modified foot and operculum allowing them to leap backwards rapidly when faced with a predator, such as a venomous cone shell. Here, we show that projected near-future seawater CO2 levels (961 µatm) impair this escape behaviour during a predator–prey interaction. Elevated-CO2 halved the number of snails that jumped from the predator, increased their latency to jump and altered their escape trajectory. Physical ability to jump was not affected by elevated-CO2 indicating instead that decision-making was impaired. Antipredator behaviour was fully restored by treatment with gabazine, a GABA antagonist of some invertebrate nervous systems, indicating potential interference of neurotransmitter receptor function by elevated-CO2, as previously observed in marine fishes. Altered behaviour of marine invertebrates at projected future CO2 levels could have potentially far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems. PMID:24225456

Projected future distribution of date palm and its potential use in alleviating micronutrient deficiency.

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Nojoumian, Amir Hadi; Esmaeili, Atefeh; Toghyani, Mehdi

2016-03-15

Micronutrient deficiency develops when nutrient intake does not match nutritional requirements for maintaining healthy tissue and organ functions which may have long-ranging effects on health, learning ability and productivity. Inadequacy of iron, zinc and vitamin A are the most important micronutrient deficiencies. Consumption of a 100 g portion of date flesh from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) has been reported to meet approximately half the daily dietary recommended intake of these micronutrients. This study investigated the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under future climates to address its potential long-term use as a food commodity to tackle micronutrient deficiencies in some developing countries. Modelling outputs indicated large shifts in areas conducive to date palm cultivation, based on global-scale alteration over the next 60 years. Most of the regions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies were projected to become highly conducive for date palm cultivation. These results could inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying areas to cultivate this nutritionally important crop in the future to support the alleviation of micronutrient deficiencies. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations

PubMed Central

Whitacre, James M.; Atamas, Sergei P.

2013-01-01

Trait diversity – the substrate for natural selection – is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy’s role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. PMID:22910487

Didactical determinants use of information and communication technology in process of training of future specialists.

PubMed

Palamar, Borys I; Vaskivska, Halyna O; Palamar, Svitlana P

In the article the author touches upon the subject of significance of computer equipment for organization of cooperation of professor and future specialists. Such subject-subject interaction may be directed to forming of professional skills of future specialists. By using information and communication technologies in education system range of didactic tasks can be solved. Improving of process of teaching of subjects in high school, self-learning future specialists, motivating to learning and self-learning, the development of reflection in the learning process. The authors considers computer equipment as instrument for development of intellectual skills, potential and willingness of future specialists to solve communicative and communication tasks and problems on the creative basis. Based on results of researches the author comes to certain conclusions about the effectiveness of usage of computer technologies in process of teaching future specialists and their self-learning. Improper supplying of high schools with computer equipment, lack of appropriate educational programs, professors' teachers' poor knowledge and usage of computers have negative impact on organization of process of teaching disciplines in high schools. Computer equipment and ICT in general are the instruments of development of intellectual skills, potential and willingness of future specialists to solve communicative and communication tasks and problems. So, the formation of psychosocial environment of development of future specialist is multifaceted, complex and didactically important issue.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Kangalawe, Richard Y M; Yanda, Pius Z

2010-04-23

Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.

Evolution of Requirements and Assumptions for Future Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Molly; Sargusingh, Miriam; Perry, Jay

2017-01-01

NASA programs are maturing technologies, systems, and architectures to enabling future exploration missions. To increase fidelity as technologies mature, developers must make assumptions that represent the requirements of a future program. Multiple efforts have begun to define these requirements, including team internal assumptions, planning system integration for early demonstrations, and discussions between international partners planning future collaborations. For many detailed life support system requirements, existing NASA documents set limits of acceptable values, but a future vehicle may be constrained in other ways, and select a limited range of conditions. Other requirements are effectively set by interfaces or operations, and may be different for the same technology depending on whether the hard-ware is a demonstration system on the International Space Station, or a critical component of a future vehicle. This paper highlights key assumptions representing potential life support requirements and explanations of the driving scenarios, constraints, or other issues that drive them.

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

PubMed Central

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Rahbek, Carsten; Jiguet, Frédéric

2009-01-01

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is −13 per cent (from −97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa. PMID:19324660

A New Tool for Exploring Climate Change Induced Range Shifts of Conifer Species in China

PubMed Central

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management. PMID:25268604

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

PubMed

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

PubMed

García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

2017-10-01

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Marine Hydrokinetic Resource Assessment for Domestic Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robichaud, Robi J; Ingram, Michael

NREL/DOE undertook a study for the US Army, Coast Guard and Air Force to investigate the potential for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices to meet the energy load at coastal bases in the future as MHK technology evolves. A wide range of data from tidal and wave, environmental, shipping, etc. databases were used to screen the DOD bases. A series of scoring algorithms were developed to facilitate site review to lead to eventual down select for more detailed, site specific bathymetric tidal resource evaluation. The Army's Camp Edwards, MA and the Coast Guard's Training Center Cape May, NJ (TRACEN Cape May)more » were selected and the Georgia Institute of Technology performed the analyses. An NREL/DOE MHK team visited the bases to further discuss with the base personnel MHK technology's potential for providing power to the bases in the future and frame the potential impact to existing power systems.« less

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Klonner, Günther; Rammer, Werner; Essl, Franz; Moreno, Adam; Neumann, Mathias; Dullinger, Stefan

2018-04-24

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Probing Long-Range Neutrino-Mediated Forces with Atomic and Nuclear Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Stadnik, Yevgeny V

2018-06-01

The exchange of a pair of low-mass neutrinos between electrons, protons, and neutrons produces a "long-range" 1/r^{5} potential, which can be sought for in phenomena originating on the atomic and subatomic length scales. We calculate the effects of neutrino-pair exchange on transition and binding energies in atoms and nuclei. In the case of atomic s-wave states, there is a large enhancement of the induced energy shifts due to the lack of a centrifugal barrier and the highly singular nature of the neutrino-mediated potential. We derive limits on neutrino-mediated forces from measurements of the deuteron binding energy and transition energies in positronium, muonium, hydrogen, and deuterium, as well as isotope-shift measurements in calcium ions. Our limits improve on existing constraints on neutrino-mediated forces from experiments that search for new macroscopic forces by 18 orders of magnitude. Future spectroscopy experiments have the potential to probe long-range forces mediated by the exchange of pairs of standard-model neutrinos and other weakly charged particles.

Probing Long-Range Neutrino-Mediated Forces with Atomic and Nuclear Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stadnik, Yevgeny V.

2018-06-01

The exchange of a pair of low-mass neutrinos between electrons, protons, and neutrons produces a "long-range" 1 /r5 potential, which can be sought for in phenomena originating on the atomic and subatomic length scales. We calculate the effects of neutrino-pair exchange on transition and binding energies in atoms and nuclei. In the case of atomic s -wave states, there is a large enhancement of the induced energy shifts due to the lack of a centrifugal barrier and the highly singular nature of the neutrino-mediated potential. We derive limits on neutrino-mediated forces from measurements of the deuteron binding energy and transition energies in positronium, muonium, hydrogen, and deuterium, as well as isotope-shift measurements in calcium ions. Our limits improve on existing constraints on neutrino-mediated forces from experiments that search for new macroscopic forces by 18 orders of magnitude. Future spectroscopy experiments have the potential to probe long-range forces mediated by the exchange of pairs of standard-model neutrinos and other weakly charged particles.

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

PubMed Central

Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T.; Kjær, Erik D.; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-01-01

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. PMID:23836785

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs.

PubMed

Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T; Kjær, Erik D; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2013-08-19

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990-2020.

PubMed

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-03

To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. In 2000-2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50-70% in 2000-2008 compared with 1990-1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38-113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230-680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016-2020. Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers.

Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change.

PubMed

Atkins, K E; Travis, J M J

2010-10-07

The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bacon, Charles R.; Mastin, Larry G.; Scott, Kevin M.; Nathenson, Manuel

1997-01-01

Crater Lake lies in a basin, or caldera, formed by collapse of the Cascade volcano known as Mount Mazama during a violent, climactic eruption about 7,700 years ago. This event dramatically changed the character of the volcano so that many potential types of future events have no precedent there. This potentially active volcanic center is contained within Crater Lake National Park, visited by 500,000 people per year, and is adjacent to the main transportation corridor east of the Cascade Range. Because a lake is now present within the most likely site of future volcanic activity, many of the hazards at Crater Lake are different from those at most other Cascade volcanoes. Also significant are many faults near Crater Lake that clearly have been active in the recent past. These faults, and historic seismicity, indicate that damaging earthquakes can occur there in the future. This report describes the various types of volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake area, estimates of the likelihood of future events, recommendations for mitigation, and a map of hazard zones. The main conclusions are summarized below.

Spectrally Tailored Pulsed Thulium Fiber Laser System for Broadband Lidar CO2 Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heaps, William S.; Georgieva, Elena M.; McComb, Timothy S.; Cheung, Eric C.; Hassell, Frank R.; Baldauf, Brian K.

2011-01-01

Thulium doped pulsed fiber lasers are capable of meeting the spectral, temporal, efficiency, size and weight demands of defense and civil applications for pulsed lasers in the eye-safe spectral regime due to inherent mechanical stability, compact "all-fiber" master oscillator power amplifier (MOPA) architectures, high beam quality and efficiency. Thulium fiber's longer operating wavelength allows use of larger fiber cores without compromising beam quality, increasing potential single aperture pulse energies. Applications of these lasers include eye-safe laser ranging, frequency conversion to longer or shorter wavelengths for IR countermeasures and sensing applications with otherwise tough to achieve wavelengths and detection of atmospheric species including CO2 and water vapor. Performance of a portable thulium fiber laser system developed for CO2 sensing via a broadband lidar technique with an etalon based sensor will be discussed. The fielded laser operates with approximately 280 J pulse energy in 90-150ns pulses over a tunable 110nm spectral range and has a uniquely tailored broadband spectral output allowing the sensing of multiple CO2 lines simultaneously, simplifying future potentially space based CO2 sensing instruments by reducing the number and complexity of lasers required to carry out high precision sensing missions. Power scaling and future "all fiber" system configurations for a number of ranging, sensing, countermeasures and other yet to be defined applications by use of flexible spectral and temporal performance master oscillators will be discussed. The compact, low mass, robust, efficient and readily power scalable nature of "all-fiber" thulium lasers makes them ideal candidates for use in future space based sensing applications.

Recent results from advanced research on space solar cells at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flood, Dennis J.

1990-01-01

The NASA program in space photovoltaic research and development encompasses a wide range of emerging options for future space power systems, and includes both cell and array technology development. The long range goals are to develop technology capable of achieving 300 W/kg for planar arrays, and 300 W/sq m for concentrator arrays. InP and GaAs planar and concentrator cell technologies are under investigation for their potential high efficiency and good radiation resistance. The Advanced Photovoltaic Solar Array (APSA) program is a near term effort aimed at demonstrating 130 W/kg beginning of life specific power using thin (62 pm) silicon cells. It is intended to be technology transparent to future high efficiency cells and provides the baseline for development of the 300 W/kg array.

Introduction beyond a species range: a relationship between population origin, adaptive potential and plant performance.

PubMed

Volis, S; Ormanbekova, D; Yermekbayev, K; Song, M; Shulgina, I

2014-09-01

The adaptive potential of a population defines its importance for species survival in changing environmental conditions such as global climate change. Very few empirical studies have examined adaptive potential across species' ranges, namely, of edge vs core populations, and we are unaware of a study that has tested adaptive potential (namely, variation in adaptive traits) and measured performance of such populations in conditions not currently experienced by the species but expected in the future. Here we report the results of a Triticum dicoccoides population study that employed transplant experiments and analysis of quantitative trait variation. Two populations at the opposite edges of the species range (1) were locally adapted; (2) had lower adaptive potential (inferred from the extent of genetic quantitative trait variation) than the two core populations; and (3) were outperformed by the plants from the core population in the novel environment. The fact that plants from the species arid edge performed worse than plants from the more mesic core in extreme drought conditions beyond the present climatic envelope of the species implies that usage of peripheral populations for conservation purposes must be based on intensive sampling of among-population variation.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring. Presumably, ski area locations are picked because of a tendency to receive snow and keep snowpack relative to the surrounding area. This effect of ski area location within the basin was examined by comparing projections of March snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent for the entire basin with more local projections for the portion of the basin that represents the ski area in the PRMS models. These projections indicate a steady decrease in March snow-covered area for the basins but only small changes in March snow-covered area at both ski areas for the three future scenarios until around 2050. After 2050, larger decreases are possible, but there is a large range in the projections of future scenarios. The rates of decrease for snowpack water equivalent and precipitation that falls as snow are similar at the basin and subbasin scale in both basins. Results from this modeling effort show that there is a wide range of possible outcomes for future snowpack conditions in Colorado. The results also highlight the differences between projections for entire basins and projections for local areas or subbasins within those basins.

Empowering Adolescent Girls in Developing Countries: The Potential Role of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy-Graham, Erin; Lloyd, Cynthia

2016-01-01

This article proposes a conceptual framework for how education can promote adolescent girls' empowerment and, by mapping the field, highlights promising examples of empowering education programs. We conclude by identifying both research and programmatic opportunities for the future that will harness the expertise of a range of specialists from the…

Space electronics technology summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

An overview is given of current electronics R and D activities, potential future thrusts, and related NASA payoffs. Major increases in NASA mission return and significant concurrent reductions in mission cost appear possible through a focused, long range electronics technology program. The overview covers: guidance assessments, navigation and control, and sensing and data acquisition processing, storage, and transfer.

Physics at an upgraded Fermilab proton driver

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geer, S.; /Fermilab

2005-07-01

In 2004 the Fermilab Long Range Planning Committee identified a new high intensity Proton Driver as an attractive option for the future, primarily motivated by the recent exciting developments in neutrino physics. Over the last few months a physics study has developed the physics case for the Fermilab Proton Driver. The potential physics opportunities are discussed.

Conditions of Flexibility: Securing a More Responsive Higher Education System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnett, Ronald

2014-01-01

This report is the culmination of the "Flexible Pedagogies: Preparing for the Future" series of reports which have considered flexible learning from a range of perspectives. The report proposes fifteen conditions of flexibility to inject new thinking and new practices into an emerging new age. Flexible provision has the potential to…

Nanocellulose-stabilized Pickering emulsions and their applications

PubMed Central

Fujisawa, Shuji; Togawa, Eiji; Kuroda, Katsushi

2017-01-01

Abstract Pickering emulsion, which is an emulsion stabilized by solid particles, offers a wide range of potential applications because it generally provides a more stable system than surfactant-stabilized emulsion. Among various solid stabilizers, nanocellulose may open up new opportunities for future Pickering emulsions owing to its unique nanosizes, amphiphilicity, and other favorable properties (e.g. chemical stability, biodegradability, biocompatibility, and renewability). In this review, the preparation and properties of nanocellulose-stabilized Pickering emulsions are summarized. We also provide future perspectives on their applications, such as drug delivery, food, and composite materials. PMID:29383046

The impact of fuels on aircraft technology through the year 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grobman, J.; Reck, G. M.

1980-01-01

The impact that the supply, quality, and processing costs of future fuels may have on aircraft technology is assessed. The potential range of properties for future jet fuels is discussed along with the establishment of a data base of fuel property effects on propulsion system components. Also, the evolution and evaluation of advanced component technology that would permit the use of broader property fuels and the identification of technical and economic trade-offs within the overall fuel production-air transportation system associated with variations in fuel properties are examined.

Accelerating the Translation of Nanomaterials in Biomedicine

PubMed Central

Mitragotri, Samir; Anderson, Daniel G.; Chen, Xiaoyuan; Chow, Edward K.; Ho, Dean; Kabanov, Alexander V.; Karp, Jeffrey M.; Kataoka, Kazunori; Mirkin, Chad A.; Petrosko, Sarah Hurst; Shi, Jinjun; Stevens, Molly M.; Sun, Shouheng; Teoh, Sweehin; Venkatraman, Subbu S.; Xia, Younan; Wang, Shutao; Gu, Zhen; Xu, Chenjie

2017-01-01

Due to their size and tailorable physicochemical properties, nanomaterials are an emerging class of structures utilized in biomedical applications. There are now many prominent examples of nanomaterials being used to improve human health, in areas ranging from imaging and diagnostics to therapeutics and regenerative medicine. An overview of these examples reveals several common areas of synergy and future challenges. This Nano Focus discusses the current status and future potential of promising nanomaterials and their translation from the laboratory to the clinic, by highlighting a handful of successful examples. PMID:26115196

Nanocellulose-stabilized Pickering emulsions and their applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Shuji; Togawa, Eiji; Kuroda, Katsushi

2017-12-01

Pickering emulsion, which is an emulsion stabilized by solid particles, offers a wide range of potential applications because it generally provides a more stable system than surfactant-stabilized emulsion. Among various solid stabilizers, nanocellulose may open up new opportunities for future Pickering emulsions owing to its unique nanosizes, amphiphilicity, and other favorable properties (e.g. chemical stability, biodegradability, biocompatibility, and renewability). In this review, the preparation and properties of nanocellulose-stabilized Pickering emulsions are summarized. We also provide future perspectives on their applications, such as drug delivery, food, and composite materials.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

PubMed Central

Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

2013-01-01

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

The Value of Wind Technology Innovation: Implications for the U.S. Power System, Wind Industry, Electricity Consumers, and Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu T; Lantz, Eric J; Mowers, Matthew

Improvements to wind technologies have, in part, led to substantial deployment of U.S. wind power in recent years. The degree to which technology innovation will continue is highly uncertain adding to uncertainties in future wind deployment. We apply electric sector modeling to estimate the potential wind deployment opportunities across a range of technology advancement projections. The suite of projections considered span a wide range of possible cost and technology innovation trajectories, including those from a recent expert elicitation of wind energy experts, a projection based on the broader literature, and one reflecting estimates based on a U.S. DOE research initiative.more » In addition, we explore how these deployment pathways may impact the electricity system, electricity consumers, the environment, and the wind-related workforce. Overall, our analysis finds that wind technology innovation can have consequential implications for future wind power development throughout the United States, impact the broader electricity system, lower electric system and consumer costs, provide potential environmental benefits, and grow the U.S. wind workforce.« less

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

PubMed

Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

2017-04-01

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Perspectives on invasive amphibians in Brazil

PubMed Central

Forti, Lucas Rodriguez; Becker, C. Guilherme; Tacioli, Leandro; Pereira, Vânia Rosa; Santos, André Cid F. A.; Oliveira, Igor; Haddad, Célio F. B.; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-01-01

Introduced species have the potential to become invasive and jeopardize entire ecosystems. The success of species establishing viable populations outside their original extent depends primarily on favorable climatic conditions in the invasive ranges. Species distribution modeling (SDM) can thus be used to estimate potential habitat suitability for populations of invasive species. Here we review the status of six amphibian species with invasive populations in Brazil (four domestic species and two imported species). We (i) modeled the current habitat suitability and future potential distribution of these six focal species, (ii) reported on the disease status of Eleutherodactylus johnstonei and Phyllodytes luteolus, and (iii) quantified the acoustic overlap of P. luteolus and Leptodactylus labyrinthicus with three co-occurring native species. Our models indicated that all six invasive species could potentially expand their ranges in Brazil within the next few decades. In addition, our SDMs predicted important expansions in available habitat for 2 out of 6 invasive species under future (2100) climatic conditions. We detected high acoustic niche overlap between invasive and native amphibian species, underscoring that acoustic interference might reduce mating success in local frogs. Despite the American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus being recognized as a potential reservoir for the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in Brazil, we did not detect Bd in the recently introduced population of E. johnstonei and P. luteolus in the State of São Paulo. We emphasize that the number of invasive amphibian species in Brazil is increasing exponentially, highlighting the urgent need to monitor and control these populations and decrease potential impacts on the locally biodiverse wildlife. PMID:28938024

Perspectives on invasive amphibians in Brazil.

PubMed

Forti, Lucas Rodriguez; Becker, C Guilherme; Tacioli, Leandro; Pereira, Vânia Rosa; Santos, André Cid F A; Oliveira, Igor; Haddad, Célio F B; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2017-01-01

Introduced species have the potential to become invasive and jeopardize entire ecosystems. The success of species establishing viable populations outside their original extent depends primarily on favorable climatic conditions in the invasive ranges. Species distribution modeling (SDM) can thus be used to estimate potential habitat suitability for populations of invasive species. Here we review the status of six amphibian species with invasive populations in Brazil (four domestic species and two imported species). We (i) modeled the current habitat suitability and future potential distribution of these six focal species, (ii) reported on the disease status of Eleutherodactylus johnstonei and Phyllodytes luteolus, and (iii) quantified the acoustic overlap of P. luteolus and Leptodactylus labyrinthicus with three co-occurring native species. Our models indicated that all six invasive species could potentially expand their ranges in Brazil within the next few decades. In addition, our SDMs predicted important expansions in available habitat for 2 out of 6 invasive species under future (2100) climatic conditions. We detected high acoustic niche overlap between invasive and native amphibian species, underscoring that acoustic interference might reduce mating success in local frogs. Despite the American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus being recognized as a potential reservoir for the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in Brazil, we did not detect Bd in the recently introduced population of E. johnstonei and P. luteolus in the State of São Paulo. We emphasize that the number of invasive amphibian species in Brazil is increasing exponentially, highlighting the urgent need to monitor and control these populations and decrease potential impacts on the locally biodiverse wildlife.

Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

PubMed

Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

2013-01-01

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

PubMed Central

Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Mohamed, Samira F.; Khamis, Fathiya; Ekesi, Sunday

2015-01-01

To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and management strategies. PMID:26252204

Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

2015-12-31

The application uses predictions of future annual precipitation from five climate models and two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and provides results that are averaged over three future periods—2025 to 2049, 2050 to 2074, and 2075 to 2099. Results are presented in ensemble form as the mean, median, maximum, and minimum values among the five climate models for each greenhouse gas emissions scenario and period. These predictions of future annual precipitation are substituted into either the precipitation variable or a water balance equation for runoff to calculate potential future peak flows. This application is intended to be used only as an exploratory tool because (1) the regression equations on which the application is based have not been adequately tested outside the range of the current climate and (2) forecasting future precipitation with climate models and downscaling these results to a fine spatial resolution have a high degree of uncertainty. This report includes a discussion of the assumptions, uncertainties, and appropriate use of this exploratory application.

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

PubMed

Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

2014-06-01

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015-2030

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beiter, Philipp; Stehly, Tyler

The potential for cost reduction and economic viability for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis models the cost impact of a range of offshore wind locational cost variables across more than 7,000 potential coastal sites in the United States' offshore wind resource area. It also assesses the impact of over 50 technology innovations on potential future costs between 2015 and 2027 (Commercial Operation Date) for both fixed-bottom and floating wind systems. Comparing these costs to an initial assessment of local avoided generating costs, this analysis provides a framework for estimating the economic potential for offshore wind.more » Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The findings from the original report indicate that under the modeled scenario, offshore wind can be expected to achieve significant cost reductions and may approach economic viability in some parts of the United States within the next 15 years.« less

A novel x-ray circularly polarized ranging method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Shi-Bin; Xu, Lu-Ping; Zhang, Hua; Gao, Na; Shen, Yang-He

2015-05-01

Range measurement has found multiple applications in deep space missions. With more and further deep space exploration activities happening now and in the future, the requirement for range measurement has risen. In view of the future ranging requirement, a novel x-ray polarized ranging method based on the circular polarization modulation is proposed, termed as x-ray circularly polarized ranging (XCPolR). XCPolR utilizes the circular polarization modulation to process x-ray signals and the ranging information is conveyed by the circular polarization states. As the circular polarization states present good stability in space propagation and x-ray detectors have light weight and low power consumption, XCPolR shows great potential in the long-distance range measurement and provides an option for future deep space ranging. In this paper, we present a detailed illustration of XCPolR. Firstly, the structure of the polarized ranging system is described and the signal models in the ranging process are established mathematically. Then, the main factors that affect the ranging accuracy, including the Doppler effect, the differential demodulation, and the correlation error, are analyzed theoretically. Finally, numerical simulation is carried out to evaluate the performance of XCPolR. Projects supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61172138 and 61401340), the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China (Grant No. 2013JQ8040), the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No. 20130203120004), the Open Research Fund of the Academy of Satellite Application, China (Grant No. 2014 CXJJ-DH 12), the Xi’an Science and Technology Plan, China (Grant No. CXY1350(4)), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China (Grant Nos. 201413B, 201412B, and JB141303), and the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Precision Navigation and Timing Technology, National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. 2014PNTT01, 2014PNTT07, and 2014PNTT08).

Regional Extinctions and Quaternary Shifts in the Geographic Range of Lestodelphys halli, the Southernmost Living Marsupial: Clues for Its Conservation.

PubMed

Formoso, Anahí E; Martin, Gabriel M; Teta, Pablo; Carbajo, Aníbal E; Sauthier, Daniel E Udrizar; Pardiñas, Ulyses F J

2015-01-01

The Patagonian opossum (Lestodelphys halli), the southernmost living marsupial, inhabits dry and open environments, mainly in the Patagonian steppe (between ~32 °S and ~49 °S). Its rich fossil record shows its occurrence further north in Central Argentina during the Quaternary. The paleoenvironmental meaning of the past distribution of L. halli has been mostly addressed in a subjective framework without an explicit connection with the climatic "space" currently occupied by this animal. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of this species and the changes occurred in its geographic range during late Pleistocene-Holocene times and linked the results obtained with conservation issues. To this end, we generated three potential distribution models with fossil records and three with current ones, using MaxEnt software. These models showed a decrease in the suitable habitat conditions for the species, highlighting a range shift from Central-Eastern to South-Western Argentina. Our results support that the presence of L. halli in the Pampean region during the Pleistocene-Holocene can be related to precipitation and temperature variables and that its current presence in Patagonia is more related to temperature and dominant soils. The models obtained suggest that the species has been experiencing a reduction in its geographic range since the middle Holocene, a process that is in accordance with a general increase in moisture and temperature in Central Argentina. Considering the findings of our work and the future scenario of global warming projected for Patagonia, we might expect a harsh impact on the distribution range of this opossum in the near future.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Kisailus; Lara Estroff; Himadri S. Gupta

The technical presentations and discussions at this symposium disseminated and assessed current research and defined future directions in biomaterials research, with a focus on structure-function relationships in biological and biomimetic composites. The invited and contributed talks covered a diverse range of topics from fundamental biology, physics, chemistry, and materials science to potential applications in developing areas such as light-weight composites, multifunctional and smart materials, biomedical engineering, and nanoscaled sensors. The invited speakers were chosen to create a stimulating program with a mixture of established and junior faculty, industrial and academic researchers, and American and international experts in the field. Thismore » symposium served as an excellent introduction to the area for younger scientists (graduate students and post-doctoral researchers). Direct interactions between participants also helped to promote potential future collaborations involving multiple disciplines and institutions.« less

Grand Challenges and Future Opportunities for Metal–Organic Frameworks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) allow compositional and structural diversity beyond conventional solid-state materials. Continued interest in the field is justified by potential applications of exceptional breadth, ranging from gas storage and separation, which takes advantage of the inherent pores and their volume, to electronic applications, which requires precise control of electronic structure. In this Outlook we present some of the pertinent challenges that MOFs face in their conventional implementations, as well as opportunities in less traditional areas. Here the aim is to discuss select design concepts and future research goals that emphasize nuances relevant to this class of materials as a whole. Particular emphasis is placed on synthetic aspects, as they influence the potential for MOFs in gas separation, electrical conductivity, and catalytic applications. PMID:28691066

Grand Challenges and Future Opportunities for Metal–Organic Frameworks

DOE PAGES

Hendon, Christopher H.; Rieth, Adam J.; Korzyński, Maciej D.; ...

2017-06-06

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) allow compositional and structural diversity beyond conventional solid-state materials. Continued interest in the field is justified by potential applications of exceptional breadth, ranging from gas storage and separation, which takes advantage of the inherent pores and their volume, to electronic applications, which requires precise control of electronic structure. In this Outlook we present some of the pertinent challenges that MOFs face in their conventional implementations, as well as opportunities in less traditional areas. Here the aim is to discuss select design concepts and future research goals that emphasize nuances relevant to this class of materials as amore » whole. Particular emphasis is placed on synthetic aspects, as they influence the potential for MOFs in gas separation, electrical conductivity, and catalytic applications.« less

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Simulations of potential future conditions in the cache critical groundwater area, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rashid, Haveen M.; Clark, Brian R.; Mahdi, Hanan H.; Rifai, Hanadi S.; Al-Shukri, Haydar J.

2015-01-01

A three-dimensional finite-difference model for part of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the Cache Critical Groundwater Area of eastern Arkansas was constructed to simulate potential future conditions of groundwater flow. The objectives of this study were to test different pilot point distributions to find reasonable estimates of aquifer properties for the alluvial aquifer, to simulate flux from rivers, and to demonstrate how changes in pumping rates for different scenarios affect areas of long-term water-level declines over time. The model was calibrated using the parameter estimation code. Additional calibration was achieved using pilot points with regularization and singular value decomposition. Pilot point parameter values were estimated at a number of discrete locations in the study area to obtain reasonable estimates of aquifer properties. Nine pumping scenarios for the years 2011 to 2020 were tested and compared to the simulated water-level heads from 2010. Hydraulic conductivity values from pilot point calibration ranged between 42 and 173 m/d. Specific yield values ranged between 0.19 and 0.337. Recharge rates ranged between 0.00009 and 0.0006 m/d. The model was calibrated using 2,322 hydraulic head measurements for the years 2000 to 2010 from 150 observation wells located in the study area. For all scenarios, the volume of water depleted ranged between 5.7 and 23.3 percent, except in Scenario 2 (minimum pumping rates), in which the volume increased by 2.5 percent.

Human-water interactions in Colorado: Evaluating the impacts of population growth, energy development and dynamic industries on water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, Terri; Walker, Ella; Read, Laura

2016-04-01

The gap between water supply and demand is growing in the western U.S. due to climate change, rapid population growth, intensive agricultural production, wide-spread energy development and changing industrial use. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques, and innovative regulatory frameworks strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these management strategies are often difficult to quantify and are typically not included in prediction of future water allocations. Water use on the eastern slope in Colorado (Denver-Metro region) is impacted by high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, large withdrawals for agriculture, and increasing demand for recreational industries. These demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050 in the South Platte River basin, which encompasses the Denver-Metro region. The current presentation focuses on the quantification of regional sector water use utilzing a range of observations and technologies (including remote sensing) and integration into a regional decision support system. We explore scenarios of future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal/industrial sectors, and discuss the potential water allocation tradeoffs to various stakeholders. We also employ climate projections to quantify the potential range of water availability under various scenarios and observe the extent to which future climate may influence regional management decisions.

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations.

PubMed

Whitacre, James M; Atamas, Sergei P

2012-10-01

Trait diversity - the substrate for natural selection - is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy's role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

More than meets the eye: Using cognitive work analysis to identify design requirements for future rail level crossing systems.

PubMed

Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Read, Gemma J M; Mulvihill, Christine M; Cornelissen, Miranda; Walker, Guy H; Young, Kristie L; Stevens, Nicholas; Stanton, Neville A

2016-03-01

An increasing intensity of operations means that the longstanding safety issue of rail level crossings is likely to become worse in the transport systems of the future. It has been suggested that the failure to prevent collisions may be, in part, due to a lack of systems thinking during design, crash analysis, and countermeasure development. This paper presents a systems analysis of current active rail level crossing systems in Victoria, Australia that was undertaken to identify design requirements to improve safety in future rail level crossing environments. Cognitive work analysis was used to analyse rail level crossing systems using data derived from a range of activities. Overall the analysis identified a range of instances where modification or redesign in line with systems thinking could potentially improve behaviour and safety. A notable finding is that there are opportunities for redesign outside of the physical rail level crossing infrastructure, including improved data systems, in-vehicle warnings and modifications to design processes, standards and guidelines. The implications for future rail level crossing systems are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia.

PubMed

Thomas, Evert; Tovar, Eduardo; Villafañe, Carolina; Bocanegra, José Leonardo; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs. Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future. Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

Future long-range transports: Prospects for improved fuel efficiency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagel, A. L.; Alford, W. J., Jr.; Dugan, J. F., Jr.

1975-01-01

A status report is provided on current thinking concerning potential improvements in fuel efficiency and possible alternate fuels. Topics reviewed are: (1) historical trends in airplane efficiency; (2) technological opportunities including supercritical aerodynamics, (3) vortex diffusers, (4) composite materials, (5) propulsion systems, (6) active controls, and terminal-area operations; (7) unconventional design concepts, and (8) hydrogen-fueled airplane.

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-03-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species.

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

PubMed Central

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-01-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species. PMID:28276473

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

2013-01-01

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment of Genetically Modified Banana Resistant to Xanthomonas Wilt in the Great Lakes Region of Africa.

PubMed

Ainembabazi, John Herbert; Tripathi, Leena; Rusike, Joseph; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Manyong, Victor

2015-01-01

Credible empirical evidence is scanty on the social implications of genetically modified (GM) crops in Africa, especially on vegetatively propagated crops. Little is known about the future success of introducing GM technologies into staple crops such as bananas, which are widely produced and consumed in the Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA). GM banana has a potential to control the destructive banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. To gain a better understanding of future adoption and consumption of GM banana in the GLA countries which are yet to permit the production of GM crops; specifically, to evaluate the potential economic impacts of GM cultivars resistant to banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. The paper uses data collected from farmers, traders, agricultural extension agents and key informants in the GLA. We analyze the perceptions of the respondents about the adoption and consumption of GM crop. Economic surplus model is used to determine future economic benefits and costs of producing GM banana. On the release of GM banana for commercialization, the expected initial adoption rate ranges from 21 to 70%, while the ceiling adoption rate is up to 100%. Investment in the development of GM banana is economically viable. However, aggregate benefits vary substantially across the target countries ranging from US$ 20 million to 953 million, highest in countries where disease incidence and production losses are high, ranging from 51 to 83% of production. The findings support investment in the development of GM banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease. The main beneficiaries of this technology development are farmers and consumers, although the latter benefit more than the former from reduced prices. Designing a participatory breeding program involving farmers and consumers signifies the successful adoption and consumption of GM banana in the target countries.

Science applications of a multispectral microscopic imager for the astrobiological exploration of Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nunez, Jorge; Farmer, Jack; Sellar, R. Glenn; Swayze, Gregg A.; Blaney, Diana L.

2014-01-01

Future astrobiological missions to Mars are likely to emphasize the use of rovers with in situ petrologic capabilities for selecting the best samples at a site for in situ analysis with onboard lab instruments or for caching for potential return to Earth. Such observations are central to an understanding of the potential for past habitable conditions at a site and for identifying samples most likely to harbor fossil biosignatures. The Multispectral Microscopic Imager (MMI) provides multispectral reflectance images of geological samples at the microscale, where each image pixel is composed of a visible/shortwave infrared spectrum ranging from 0.46 to 1.73 μm. This spectral range enables the discrimination of a wide variety of rock-forming minerals, especially Fe-bearing phases, and the detection of hydrated minerals. The MMI advances beyond the capabilities of current microimagers on Mars by extending the spectral range into the infrared and increasing the number of spectral bands. The design employs multispectral light-emitting diodes and an uncooled indium gallium arsenide focal plane array to achieve a very low mass and high reliability. To better understand and demonstrate the capabilities of the MMI for future surface missions to Mars, we analyzed samples from Mars-relevant analog environments with the MMI. Results indicate that the MMI images faithfully resolve the fine-scale microtextural features of samples and provide important information to help constrain mineral composition. The use of spectral endmember mapping reveals the distribution of Fe-bearing minerals (including silicates and oxides) with high fidelity, along with the presence of hydrated minerals. MMI-based petrogenetic interpretations compare favorably with laboratory-based analyses, revealing the value of the MMI for future in situ rover-mediated astrobiological exploration of Mars.

Science applications of a multispectral microscopic imager for the astrobiological exploration of Mars.

PubMed

Núñez, Jorge I; Farmer, Jack D; Sellar, R Glenn; Swayze, Gregg A; Blaney, Diana L

2014-02-01

Future astrobiological missions to Mars are likely to emphasize the use of rovers with in situ petrologic capabilities for selecting the best samples at a site for in situ analysis with onboard lab instruments or for caching for potential return to Earth. Such observations are central to an understanding of the potential for past habitable conditions at a site and for identifying samples most likely to harbor fossil biosignatures. The Multispectral Microscopic Imager (MMI) provides multispectral reflectance images of geological samples at the microscale, where each image pixel is composed of a visible/shortwave infrared spectrum ranging from 0.46 to 1.73 μm. This spectral range enables the discrimination of a wide variety of rock-forming minerals, especially Fe-bearing phases, and the detection of hydrated minerals. The MMI advances beyond the capabilities of current microimagers on Mars by extending the spectral range into the infrared and increasing the number of spectral bands. The design employs multispectral light-emitting diodes and an uncooled indium gallium arsenide focal plane array to achieve a very low mass and high reliability. To better understand and demonstrate the capabilities of the MMI for future surface missions to Mars, we analyzed samples from Mars-relevant analog environments with the MMI. Results indicate that the MMI images faithfully resolve the fine-scale microtextural features of samples and provide important information to help constrain mineral composition. The use of spectral endmember mapping reveals the distribution of Fe-bearing minerals (including silicates and oxides) with high fidelity, along with the presence of hydrated minerals. MMI-based petrogenetic interpretations compare favorably with laboratory-based analyses, revealing the value of the MMI for future in situ rover-mediated astrobiological exploration of Mars. Mars-Microscopic imager-Multispectral imaging-Spectroscopy-Habitability-Arm instrument.

Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

2013-01-01

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990–2020

PubMed Central

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-01

Background: To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Methods: Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. Results: In 2000–2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50–70% in 2000–2008 compared with 1990–1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38–113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230–680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016–2020. Conclusions: Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers. PMID:27824812

Are Wave and Tidal Energy Plants New Green Technologies?

PubMed

Douziech, Mélanie; Hellweg, Stefanie; Verones, Francesca

2016-07-19

Wave and tidal energy plants are upcoming, potentially green technologies. This study aims at quantifying their various potential environmental impacts. Three tidal stream devices, one tidal range plant and one wave energy harnessing device are analyzed over their entire life cycles, using the ReCiPe 2008 methodology at midpoint level. The impacts of the tidal range plant were on average 1.6 times higher than the ones of hydro-power plants (without considering natural land transformation). A similar ratio was found when comparing the results of the three tidal stream devices to offshore wind power plants (without considering water depletion). The wave energy harnessing device had on average 3.5 times higher impacts than offshore wind power. On the contrary, the considered plants have on average 8 (wave energy) to 20 (tidal stream), or even 115 times (tidal range) lower impact than electricity generated from coal power. Further, testing the sensitivity of the results highlighted the advantage of long lifetimes and small material requirements. Overall, this study supports the potential of wave and tidal energy plants as alternative green technologies. However, potential unknown effects, such as the impact of turbulence or noise on marine ecosystems, should be further explored in future research.

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge underscores the Schlaepfer et al. Future regeneration potential of big sagebrush potential futility of efforts to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggest a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

A study of the applicability/compatibility of inertial energy storage systems to future space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weldon, W. F.

1980-01-01

The applicability/compatibility of inertial energy storage systems like the homopolar generator (HPG) and the compensated pulsed alternator (CPA) to future space missions is explored. Areas of CPA and HPG design requiring development for space applications are identified. The manner in which acceptance parameters of the CPA and HPG scale with operating parameters of the machines are explored and the types of electrical loads which are compatible with the CPA and HPG are examined. Potential applications including the magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thruster, pulsed data transmission, laser ranging, welding and electromagnetic space launch are discussed.

An assessment of the status and trends in satellite communications 1986-2000: An information document prepared for the Communications Subcommittee of the Space Applications Advisory Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poley, W. A.; Stevens, G. H.; Stevenson, S. M.; Lekan, J.; Arth, C. H.; Hollansworth, J. E.; Miller, E. F.

1986-01-01

This is a response to a Space Applications Advisory Committee (SAAC) request for information about the status and trends in satellite communications, to be used to support efforts to conceive and recommend long range goals for NASA communications activities. Included in this document are assessments of: (1) the outlook for satellite communications, including current applications, potential future applications, and impact of the changing environment such as optical fiber networks, the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) standard, and the rapidly growing market for Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT); (2) the restrictions imposed by our limited spectrum resource; and (3) technology needs indicated by future trends. Potential future systems discussed include: large powerful satellites for providing personal communications; VSAT compatible satellites with onboard switching and having voice capability; large satellites which offer a pervasive T1 network service (primarily for video-phone); and large geostationary communications facilities which support common use by several carriers. Also, discussion is included of NASA particular needs and possible future systems. Based on the mentioned system concepts, specific technology recommendations are provided for the time frames of now - 1993, 1994 - 2000, and 2000 - 2010.

Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge- uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2006-06-01

An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists.

Nanoparticle interaction potentials constructed by multiscale computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cheng K.; Hua, Chi C.

2010-06-01

The van der Waals (vdW) potentials governing macroscopic objects have long been formulated in the context of classical theories, such as Hamaker's microscopic theory and Lifshitz's continuum theory. This work addresses the possibility of constructing the vdW interaction potentials of nanoparticle species using multiscale simulation schemes. Amorphous silica nanoparticles were considered as a benchmark example for which a series of (SiO2)n (n being an integer) has been systematically surveyed as the potential candidates of the packing units that reproduce known bulk material properties in atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. This strategy led to the identification of spherical Si6O12 molecules, later utilized as the elementary coarse-grained (CG) particles to compute the pair interaction potentials of silica nanoparticles ranging from 0.62 to 100 nm in diameter. The model nanoparticles so built may, in turn, serve as the children CG particles to construct nanoparticles assuming arbitrary sizes and shapes. Major observations are as follows. The pair interaction potentials for all the investigated spherical silica nanoparticles can be cast into a semiempirical, generalized Lennard-Jones 2α-α potential (α being a size-dependent, large integral number). In its reduced form, we discuss the implied universalities for the vdW potentials governing a certain range of amorphous nanoparticle species as well as how thermodynamic transferability can be fulfilled automatically. In view of future applications with colloidal suspensions, we briefly evaluated the vdW potential in the presence of a "screening" medium mimicking the effects of electrical double layers or grafting materials atop the nanoparticle core. The general observations shed new light on strategies to attain a microscopic control over interparticle attractions. In future perspectives, the proposed multiscale computation scheme shall help bridge the current gap between the modeling of polymer chains and macroscopic objects by introducing molecular models coarse-grained at a similar level so that the interactions between these two can be treated in a consistent and faithful way.

Demand Response Potential for California SubLAPs and Local Capacity Planning Areas: An Addendum to the 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study – Phase 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann

The 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study Phase 2 Report1 was released on March 1, 2017, and described a range of pathways for Demand Response (DR) to support a clean, stable, and cost-effective electric grid for California. One of the Report’s key findings was that while there appears to be very low future value for untargeted DR Shed aimed at system-wide peak load conditions, there could be significant value for locally focused Shed resources. Although the dynamics of renewable capacity expansion have reduced the pressure to build new thermal generation in general, there are still transmission-constrained areas of the statemore » where load growth needs to be managed with the addition of new local capacity, which could include DERs and/or DR. This Addendum to the Phase 2 Report presents a breakdown of the expected future “Local Shed” DR potential at a finer geographic resolution than what is available in the original report, with results summarized by SubLAP and Local Capacity Area (LCA).« less

Climate Change and West Nile Virus in a Highly Endemic Region of North America

PubMed Central

Chen, Chen C.; Jenkins, Emily; Epp, Tasha; Waldner, Cheryl; Curry, Philip S.; Soos, Catherine

2013-01-01

The Canadian prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have reported the highest human incidence of clinical cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Canada. The primary vector for WVN in this region is the mosquito Culex tarsalis. This study used constructed models and biological thresholds to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of Cx. tarsalis and WNV infection rate in the prairie provinces under a range of potential future climate and habitat conditions. We selected one median and two extreme outcome scenarios to represent future climate conditions in the 2020 (2010–2039), 2050 (2040–2069) and 2080 (2070–2099) time slices. In currently endemic regions, the projected WNV infection rate under the median outcome scenario in 2050 raised 17.91 times (ranged from 1.29-27.45 times for all scenarios and time slices) comparing to current climate conditions. Seasonal availability of Cx. tarsalis infected with WNV extended from June to August to include May and September. Moreover, our models predicted northward range expansion for Cx. tarsalis (1.06–2.56 times the current geographic area) and WNV (1.08–2.34 times the current geographic area). These findings predict future public and animal health risk of WNV in the Canadian prairie provinces. PMID:23880729

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Regional Extinctions and Quaternary Shifts in the Geographic Range of Lestodelphys halli, the Southernmost Living Marsupial: Clues for Its Conservation

PubMed Central

Formoso, Anahí E.; Martin, Gabriel M.; Teta, Pablo; Carbajo, Aníbal E.; Sauthier, Daniel E. Udrizar; Pardiñas, Ulyses F. J.

2015-01-01

The Patagonian opossum (Lestodelphys halli), the southernmost living marsupial, inhabits dry and open environments, mainly in the Patagonian steppe (between ~32°S and ~49°S). Its rich fossil record shows its occurrence further north in Central Argentina during the Quaternary. The paleoenvironmental meaning of the past distribution of L. halli has been mostly addressed in a subjective framework without an explicit connection with the climatic “space” currently occupied by this animal. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of this species and the changes occurred in its geographic range during late Pleistocene-Holocene times and linked the results obtained with conservation issues. To this end, we generated three potential distribution models with fossil records and three with current ones, using MaxEnt software. These models showed a decrease in the suitable habitat conditions for the species, highlighting a range shift from Central-Eastern to South-Western Argentina. Our results support that the presence of L. halli in the Pampean region during the Pleistocene-Holocene can be related to precipitation and temperature variables and that its current presence in Patagonia is more related to temperature and dominant soils. The models obtained suggest that the species has been experiencing a reduction in its geographic range since the middle Holocene, a process that is in accordance with a general increase in moisture and temperature in Central Argentina. Considering the findings of our work and the future scenario of global warming projected for Patagonia, we might expect a harsh impact on the distribution range of this opossum in the near future. PMID:26203650

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet.

PubMed

Hermes, Claudia; Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet

PubMed Central

Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E.; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H. Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes. PMID:29364949

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability.

PubMed

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-08-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26-141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture.

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability

PubMed Central

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-01-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26–141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture. PMID:23576836

Future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Goodby, Emmeline; MacLeod, Andrew K

2016-06-01

This study employed the Future Thinking Task (MacLeod et al., 2005, Br. J. Clin. Psychol., 44, 495) to investigate whether future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis is significantly different from that of matched controls, and to identify its correlates in this patient group. Cross-sectional, mixed-model, case-control design. Participants were 30 patients with first-episode psychosis and 27 matched controls. The Future Thinking Task was used to assess future-directed thinking in both groups. Anxiety and depression were also measured as well as self-report measures of hopelessness, suicide ideation and a measure of negative symptoms. Individuals with psychosis were impaired in future-directed thinking in both positive and negative domains, particularly with respect to the coming year. Increased self-reported hopelessness was associated with reduced positive future thinking and increased negative future thinking. Increased positive future thinking was also associated with reduced severity of negative symptoms, whilst negative future thinking was associated with suicide ideation. Individuals with first-episode psychosis show a reduction in positive future thinking in line with that seen in other clinical groups, but this is accompanied by an unexpected reduction in negative future thinking. The findings suggest a general disengagement with the future in this group that may affect recovery and functioning. Individuals with first-episode psychosis may benefit from interventions to help them engage with their future, in particular in the mid-range, up to 1 year. The Future Thinking Task may be a helpful addition to the assessment of suicide risk in those with first-episode psychosis. Decreased positive future thinking was associated with increased severity of negative symptoms, indicating a potential new treatment angle for this resistant aspect of psychosis. The cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for conclusions about the causal relationship between psychosis and future-directed thinking. This study investigated future-directed thinking in individuals with a range of psychotic illnesses employing a trans-diagnostic approach; therefore, conclusions cannot be drawn about the nature of future-directed thinking in individual psychotic disorders. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Impact of Alternative Timber Management Policies on Availability of Forest Land in the Northeast

Treesearch

Owen W. Herrick

1977-01-01

Gaging the ability of the forest resource to satisfy future timber requirements is central to solving many problems arising from competition for use of forest land. In this study, production potentials of forest acreage in the Northeastern United States under management alternatives that range from extensive to intensive are weighed against several estimates of timber...

Literature Review of Nanosprings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, Reuben James

2016-08-22

Nanosprings are helical structures grown on the nanoscale. Numerous choices exist for composition and coating which give them a wide range of possible uses. They compare favorably in some aspects to other nanostructures and unfavorably in other aspects. This paper reviews the available literature, discusses techniques for formation and coating, and explores a variety of potential applications that may be developed in the near future.

Teaching for "Global Telephony": A Case Study of a Community School for India's 21st Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byker, Erik Jon

2015-01-01

Although controversial, perhaps no piece of legislation has the potential to transform India's future more than the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act (RTE). Upon the passage and enforcement of RTE in 2009, the Indian government instituted a series of wide-ranging reforms to India's education system. For example, the act…

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Singlet-catalyzed electroweak phase transitions in the 100 TeV frontier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotwal, Ashutosh V.; Ramsey-Musolf, Michael J.; No, Jose Miguel; Winslow, Peter

2016-08-01

We study the prospects for probing a gauge singlet scalar-driven strong first-order electroweak phase transition with a future proton-proton collider in the 100 TeV range. Singlet-Higgs mixing enables resonantly enhanced di-Higgs production, potentially aiding discovery prospects. We perform Monte Carlo scans of the parameter space to identify regions associated with a strong first-order electroweak phase transition, analyze the corresponding di-Higgs signal, and select a set of benchmark points that span the range of di-Higgs signal strengths. For the b b ¯γ γ and 4 τ final states, we investigate discovery prospects for each benchmark point for the high-luminosity phase of the Large Hadron Collider and for a future p p collider with √{s }=50 , 100, or 200 TeV. We find that any of these future collider scenarios could significantly extend the reach beyond that of the high-luminosity LHC, and that with √{s }=100 TeV (200 TeV) and 30 ab-1 , the full region of parameter space favorable to strong first-order electroweak phase transitions is almost fully (fully) discoverable.

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Linsbauer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Due to the expected atmospheric warming, mountain glaciers will retreat, potentially collapse or even vanish completely during the 21st century. When overdeepened parts of the glacier bed are exposed in the course of glacier retreat, glacier lakes can form. Such lakes have a potential for hydropower production, which is an important source of renewable energy. Furthermore they are important elements in the perception of high-mountain landscapes and they can compensate the loss of landscape attractiveness from glacier shrinkage to a certain degree. However, glacier lakes are also a potential source of serious flood and debris flow hazards, especially in densely populated mountain ranges. Thus, methods for early detection of sites with potential lake formation are important for early planning and development of protection concepts. In this contribution we present a multi-scale approach to detect sites with potential future lake formation on four different levels of detail. The methods are developed, tested and - as far as possible - verified in the Swiss Alps; but they can be applied to mountain regions all over the world. On a first level, potential overdeepenings are estimated by selecting flat parts (slope < 5°) of the current glacier surface based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. The same input data are used on the second level for a manual detection of overdeepenings, which are expected at locations where the following three criteria apply: (a) A distinct increase of the glacier surface slope in down-glacier direction; (b) an enlarged width followed by a narrow glacier part; and (c) regions with compressive flow (no crevasses) followed by extending flow (heavily crevassed). On the third level, more sophisticated approaches to model the glacier bed topography are applied to get more quantitative information on potential future lakes. Based on the results of this level, scenarios of future lake outbursts can be modeled with simple flow routing models. Finally, for potentially critical or dangerous situations, on-site geophysical measurements such as ground penetrating radar applied on different sections of a glacier can be performed on the fourth level to investigate the overdeepenings in more detail. These methods are verified based on historical data from the Trift glacier in the Bernese Alps, where a lake formed in front of the glacier since the 1990s up to the present. Potential future lake scenarios are presented for two regions in the Swiss Alps and the outburst potential of such future lakes is investigated for the Bernina region. The proposed method is an important step towards early detection of new potential flood hazards related to rapid glacier retreat. At the same time, it can form a basis for an integrative risk and benefit management relating to new glacier lakes.

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Matulla, Christoph

2018-04-01

In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

Surface effects on mean inner potentials studied using density functional theory.

PubMed

Pennington, Robert S; Boothroyd, Chris B; Dunin-Borkowski, Rafal E

2015-12-01

Quantitative materials characterization using electron holography frequently requires knowledge of the mean inner potential, but reported experimental mean inner potential measurements can vary widely. Using density functional theory, we have simulated the mean inner potential for materials with a range of different surface conditions and geometries. We use both "thin-film" and "nanowire" specimen geometries. We consider clean bulk-terminated surfaces with different facets and surface reconstructions using atom positions from both structural optimization and experimental data and we also consider surfaces both with and without adsorbates. We find that the mean inner potential is surface-dependent, with the strongest dependency on surface adsorbates. We discuss the outlook and perspective for future mean inner potential measurements. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Wolf (Canis lupus) Breeding Areas in a Mountainous Region of Central Italy

PubMed Central

Bassi, Elena; Willis, Stephen G.; Passilongo, Daniela; Mattioli, Luca; Apollonio, Marco

2015-01-01

Wolves (Canis lupus) in Italy represent a relict west European population. They are classified as vulnerable by IUCN, though have increased in number and expanded their range in recent decades. Here we use 17 years of monitoring data (from 1993 to 2010) collected in a mountainous region of central Italy (Arezzo, Tuscany) in an ecological niche-based model (MaxEnt) to characterize breeding sites (i.e. the areas where pups were raised) within home ranges, as detected from play-back responses. From a suite of variables related to topography, habitat and human disturbance we found that elevation and distance to protected areas were most important in explaining the locality of wolf responses. Rendezvous sites (family play-back response sites) typically occurred between 800 and 1200 m a.s.l., inside protected areas, and were usually located along mountain chains distant from human settlements and roads. In these areas human disturbance is low and the densities of ungulates are typically high. Over recent years, rendezvous sites have occurred closer to urban areas as the wolf population has continued to expand, despite the consequent human disturbance. This suggests that undisturbed landscapes may be reaching their carrying capacity for wolves. This, in turn, may lead to the potential for increased human-wolf interactions in future. Applying our model, both within and beyond the species’ current range, we identify sites both within the current range and also further afield, that the species could occupy in future. Our work underlines the importance of the present protected areas network in facilitating the recolonisation by wolves. Our projections of suitability of sites for future establishment as the population continues to expand could inform planning to minimize future wolf-human conflicts. PMID:26035174

What about Place? Considering the Role of Physical Environment on Youth Imagining of Future Possible Selves.

PubMed

Prince, Dana

2014-07-01

Identity research indicates that development of well elaborated cognitions about oneself in the future, or one's possible selves, is consequential for youths' developmental trajectories, influencing a range of social, health, and educational outcomes. Although the theory of possible selves considers the role of social contexts in identity development, the potential influence of the physical environment is understudied. At the same time, a growing body of work spanning multiple disciplines points to the salience of place , or the meaningful physical environments of people's everyday lives, as an active contributor to self-identity. Bridging these two lines of inquiry, I provide evidence to show how place-based experiences, such as belonging, aversion, and entrapment, may be internalized and encoded into possible selves, thus producing emplaced future self-concept. I suggest that for young people, visioning self in the future is inextricably bound with place; place is an active contributor both in the present development of future self-concept and in enabling young people to envision different future possible places. Implications for practice and future research include place-making interventions and conceptualizing place beyond "neighborhood effects."

Techno-economic requirements for composite aircraft components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Ray

1993-01-01

The primary reason for use of composites is to save structural weight. A well designed composite aircraft structure will usually save 25-30 percent of a well designed metal structure. The weight savings then translates into improved performance of the aircraft in measures of greater payload, increased flying range or improved efficiency - less use of fuel. Composite materials offer technical advantages. Key technical advantages that composites offer are high stiffness, tailored strength capability, fatigue resistance, and corrosion resistance. Low thermal expansion properties produce dimensionally stable structures over a wide range of temperature. Specialty resin 'char' forming characteristics in a fire environment offer potential fire barrier application and safer aircraft. The materials and processes of composite fabrication offer the potential for lower cost structures in the near future. The application of composite materials to aircraft are discussed.

Elements and elasmobranchs: hypotheses, assumptions and limitations of elemental analysis.

PubMed

McMillan, M N; Izzo, C; Wade, B; Gillanders, B M

2017-02-01

Quantifying the elemental composition of elasmobranch calcified cartilage (hard parts) has the potential to answer a range of ecological and biological questions, at both the individual and population level. Few studies, however, have employed elemental analyses of elasmobranch hard parts. This paper provides an overview of the range of applications of elemental analysis in elasmobranchs, discussing the assumptions and potential limitations in cartilaginous fishes. It also reviews the available information on biotic and abiotic factors influencing patterns of elemental incorporation into hard parts of elasmobranchs and provides some comparative elemental assays and mapping in an attempt to fill knowledge gaps. Directions for future experimental research are highlighted to better understand fundamental elemental dynamics in elasmobranch hard parts. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Chirality and gravitational parity violation.

PubMed

Bargueño, Pedro

2015-06-01

In this review, parity-violating gravitational potentials are presented as possible sources of both true and false chirality. In particular, whereas phenomenological long-range spin-dependent gravitational potentials contain both truly and falsely chiral terms, it is shown that there are models that extend general relativity including also coupling of fermionic degrees of freedom to gravity in the presence of torsion, which give place to short-range truly chiral interactions similar to that usually considered in molecular physics. Physical mechanisms which give place to gravitational parity violation together with the expected size of the effects and their experimental constraints are discussed. Finally, the possible role of parity-violating gravity in the origin of homochirality and a road map for future research works in quantum chemistry is presented. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Economic effects of ocean acidification: Publication patterns and directions for future research.

PubMed

Falkenberg, Laura J; Tubb, Adeline

2017-09-01

Human societies derive economic benefit from marine systems, yet these benefits may be modified as humans drive environmental change. Here, we conducted the first systematic review of literature on the potential economic effects of ocean acidification. We identified that while there is a growing literature discussing this topic, assessments of the direction and magnitude of anticipated economic change remain limited. The few assessments which have been conducted indicate largely negative economic effects of ocean acidification. Insights are, however, limited as the scope of the studies remains restricted. We propose that understanding of this topic will benefit from using standard approaches (e.g. timescales and emissions scenarios) to consider an increasing range of species/habitats and ecosystem services over a range of spatial scales. The resulting understanding could inform decisions such that we maintain, or enhance, economic services obtained from future marine environments.

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds

PubMed Central

Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. PMID:29467262

Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

DOE PAGES

Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah; ...

2015-08-09

Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in propertymore » damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.« less

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

PubMed

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2011-05-07

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

Widespread range expansions shape latitudinal variation in insect thermal limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lancaster, Lesley T.

2016-06-01

Current anthropogenic impacts, including habitat modification and climate change, may contribute to a sixth mass extinction. To mitigate these impacts and slow further losses of biodiversity, we need to understand which species are most at risk and identify the factors contributing to current and future declines. Such information is often obtained through large-scale, comparative and biogeographic analysis of lineages or traits that are potentially sensitive to ongoing anthropogenic change--for instance to predict which regions are most susceptible to climate change-induced biodiversity loss. However, for this approach to be generally successful, the underlying causes of identified geographical trends need to be carefully considered. Here, I augment and reanalyse a global data set of insect thermal tolerances, evaluating the contribution of recent and contemporary range expansions to latitudinal variation in thermal niche breadth. Previous indications that high-latitude ectotherms exhibit broad thermal niches and high warming tolerances held only for species undergoing range expansions or invasions. In contrast, species with stable or declining geographic ranges exhibit latitudinally decreasing absolute thermal tolerances and no latitudinal variation in tolerance breadths. Thus, non-range-expanding species, particularly insular or endemic species, which are often of highest conservation priority, are unlikely to tolerate future climatic warming at high latitudes.

2010 NASA Range Safety Annual Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dumont, Alan G.

2010-01-01

this report provides a NASA Range Safety overview for current and potential range users. This report contains articles which cover a variety of subject areas, summaries of various NASA Range Safety Program activities conducted during the past year, links to past reports, and information on several projects that may have a profound impact on the way business will be done in the future. Specific topics discussed in the 2010 NASA Range Safety Annual Report include a program overview and 2010 highlights; Range Safety Training; Range Safety Policy revision; Independent Assessments; Support to Program Operations at all ranges conducting NASA launch/flight operations; a continuing overview of emerging range safety-related technologies; and status reports from all of the NASA Centers that have Range Safety responsibilities. Every effort has been made to include the most current information available. We recommend this report be used only for guidance and that the validity and accuracy of all articles be verified for updates. Once again, the web-based format was used to present the annual report.

Integrated viral clearance strategies-reflecting on the present, projecting to the future.

PubMed

Roush, David J

2018-01-20

Viral clearance and inactivation are critical steps in ensuring the safety of biological products derived from mammalian cell culture and are a component of an adventitious agent control strategy which spans both upstream and downstream processes. Although these approaches have been sufficient to support the development of biologics to date, the empirical and semi-quantitative nature of the approach leaves some potential gaps. For example, the concept of performing a quantitative risk assessment for the downstream components of virus safety was introduced in ICH Q5A for XMuLV. An ideal future state would be to perform a similar quantitative risk assessment for a range of viruses based on an assessment of potential virus risk in both upstream and downstream processes. This assessment combined with an integrated control strategy (including monitoring) would be extremely beneficial in minimizing potential adventitious agent risks. Significant progress has been achieved towards this goal in the last several years including recent advances in quantification of virus sequences in cell banks (ADVTIG), development of truly modular or generic viral clearance claims for specific unit operations, enhanced controls of upstream media (HTST/nanofiltration) and the use of RVLP for in-process monitoring. The recent shift towards continuous processing has the potential to enhance the criticality of in-line monitoring and the complexity of viral clearance and inactivation (owing to a wide range of potential 'worst case' viral clearance scenarios). However, gaps exist in, firstly, the ability to quantify potential virus risk levels in process streams in real-time, secondly, mechanistic understanding of virus/chromatography media interactions, and thirdly, mechanistic understanding of virus/filter interactions. Some new technologies may also need to be developed to allow for real-time confirmation of virus inactivation and clearance to support process development (both batch and continuous) and assessment of the impact of process deviations during manufacturing. This review paper provides an overview of the current state of an overall integrated control strategy for upstream and downstream processing and highlights the investments that could be pursued to achieve the future state of a quantitative virus risk assessment for a range of viruses. One potential approach to address these gaps is the use of data mining from large, comprehensive and diverse data sets to establish heuristic rules for virus detection, clearance and inactivation followed by specific hypothesis-driven experiments for cases that fall outside of the normal paradigm. Once this approach reaches a mature state suitable for implementation, there is an opportunity to update regulatory guidance (e.g. ICH Q5A) accordingly. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future global SLR network evolution and its impact on the terrestrial reference frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehm, Alexander; Bloßfeld, Mathis; Pavlis, Erricos C.; Seitz, Florian

2018-06-01

Satellite laser ranging (SLR) is an important technique that contributes to the determination of terrestrial geodetic reference frames, especially to the realization of the origin and the scale of global networks. One of the major limiting factors of SLR-derived reference frame realizations is the datum accuracy which significantly suffers from the current global SLR station distribution. In this paper, the impact of a potential future development of the SLR network on the estimated datum parameters is investigated. The current status of the SLR network is compared to a simulated potential future network featuring additional stations improving the global network geometry. In addition, possible technical advancements resulting in a higher amount of observations are taken into account as well. As a result, we find that the network improvement causes a decrease in the scatter of the network translation parameters of up to 24%, and up to 20% for the scale, whereas the technological improvement causes a reduction in the scatter of up to 27% for the translations and up to 49% for the scale. The Earth orientation parameters benefit by up to 15% from both effects.

Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change.

PubMed

Hu, Junhua; Liu, Yang

2014-01-01

It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km(2), which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data.

Climate change impacts on irrigated rice and wheat production in Gomti River basin of India: a case study.

PubMed

Abeysingha, N S; Singh, Man; Islam, Adlul; Sehgal, V K

2016-01-01

Potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production and their evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Gomti River basin were assessed by integrating a widely used hydrological model "Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)" and climate change scenario generated from MIROC (HiRes) global climate model. SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow data of four spatially distributed gauging stations and district wise wheat and rice yields data for the districts located within the basin. Simulation results showed an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5-6.7, 16.6-20.2 and 26-33.4 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, mean annual wheat yield is also likely to increase by 13.9-15.4, 23.6-25.6 and 25.2-27.9 % for the same future time periods. Evapotranspiration for both wheat and rice is projected to increase in the range of 3-9.6 and 7.8-16.3 %, respectively. With increase in rainfall during rice growing season, irrigation water allocation for rice is likely to decrease (<5 %) in future periods, but irrigation water allocation for wheat is likely to increase by 17.0-45.3 % in future periods.

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

PubMed Central

Reside, April E; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Kutt, Alex S

2012-01-01

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this “realistic” dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species’ range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species. PMID:22837819

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

2008-03-01

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Riper, Charles; Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Mattson, David; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Nowak, Erika M.; Ironside, Kirsten; Peters, Michael; Heinrich, Paul; Cole, K.L.; Truettner, C.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.

2014-01-01

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.

Global Tree Range Shifts Under Forecasts from Two Alternative GCMs Using Two Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Kumar, J.; Potter, K. M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2013-12-01

Global shifts in the environmentally suitable ranges of 215 tree species were predicted under forecasts from two GCMs (the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the Hadley Model), each under two IPCC future climatic scenarios (A1 and B1), each at two future dates (2050 and 2100). The analysis considers all global land surface at a resolution of 4 km2. A statistical multivariate clustering procedure was used to quantitatively delineate 30 thousand environmentally homogeneous ecoregions across present and 8 potential future global locations at once, using global maps of 17 environmental characteristics describing temperature, precipitation, soils, topography and solar insolation. Presence of each tree species on Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) plots and in Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) samples was used to select a subset of suitable ecoregions from the full set of 30 thousand. Once identified, this suitable subset of ecoregions was compared to the known current range of the tree species under present conditions. Predicted present ranges correspond well with current understanding for all but a few of the 215 tree species. The subset of suitable ecoregions for each tree species can then be tracked into the future to determine whether the suitable home range for this species remains the same, moves, grows, shrinks, or disappears under each model/scenario combination. Occurrence and growth performance measurements for various tree species across the U.S. are limited to FIA plots. We present a new, general-purpose empirical imputation method which associates sparse measurements of dependent variables with particular multivariate clustered combinations of the independent variables, and then estimates values for unmeasured clusters, based on directional proximity in multidimensional data space, at both the cluster and map-cell levels of resolution. Using Associative Clustering, we scaled up the FIA point measurements into contonuous maps that show the expected growth and suitability for individual tree species across the continental US. Maps were generated for each tree species showing the Minimum Required Movement (MRM) straight-line distance from each currently suitable location to the geographically nearest "lifeboat" location having suitable conditions in the future. Locations that are the closest "lifeboats" for many MRM propagules originating from wide surrounding areas may constitute high-priority preservation targets as a refugium against climatic change.

Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

PubMed

Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

2013-01-01

Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary consequences of climate-induced range shifts in insects.

PubMed

Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa A; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex; Hansson, Bengt; Ott, Jürgen; Wellenreuther, Maren

2016-11-01

Range shifts can rapidly create new areas of geographic overlap between formerly allopatric taxa and evidence is accumulating that this can affect species persistence. We review the emerging literature on the short- and long-term consequences of these geographic range shifts. Specifically, we focus on the evolutionary consequences of novel species interactions in newly created sympatric areas by describing the potential (i) short-term processes acting on reproductive barriers between species and (ii) long-term consequences of range shifts on the stability of hybrid zones, introgression and ultimately speciation and extinction rates. Subsequently, we (iii) review the empirical literature on insects to evaluate which processes have been studied, and (iv) outline some areas that deserve increased attention in the future, namely the genomics of hybridisation and introgression, our ability to forecast range shifts and the impending threat from insect vectors and pests on biodiversity, human health and crop production. Our review shows that species interactions in de novo sympatric areas can be manifold, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing species diversity. A key issue that emerges is that climate-induced hybridisations in insects are much more widespread than anticipated and that rising temperatures and increased anthropogenic disturbances are accelerating the process of species mixing. The existing evidence only shows the tip of the iceberg and we are likely to see many more cases of species mixing following range shifts in the near future. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Fung, Emily; Hannah, Lee; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E; Roubik, David W; Ricketts, Taylor H; Harvey, Celia A; Donatti, Camila I; Läderach, Peter; Locatelli, Bruno; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2017-09-26

Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.

RL10 ignition limits test for Shuttle Centaur

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

During routine development testing of the RL10A-3-3B engine a potential no-ignition condition was encountered when operating at certain propellant inlet conditions within the Shuttle Centaur G operating region. The conditions, the resulting investigative program, and methods to correct the potential problem are discussed. The Shuttle Centaur program was cancelled prior to completion of this effort. Although the RL10 engine in the Atlas Centaur vehicle is required by specification to operate over a wide range of propellant inlet conditions. The vehicle actually operates over a narrow range of conditions. This factor, combined with configuration differences between Atlas Centaur (or Titan Centaur) and the Shuttle Centaur RL10 engines, indicates the ignition problem does not exist for these vehicles. As a precautionary measure the vehicle manufacturer was requested to coordinate with Pratt and Whitney any anticipated changes in propellant inlet conditions from the current narrow range. An engineering change will be proposed for future RL10 deliveries to provide more consistent propellant flow to the igniter. This will permit operation of the engine throughout the wide range specification inlet conditions if desired.

Evaluating the promise and pitfalls of a potential climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California.

PubMed

Sato, Kirk N; Powell, Jackson; Rudie, Dave; Levin, Lisa A

2018-05-01

Marine fishery stakeholders are beginning to consider and implement adaptation strategies in the face of growing consumer demand and potential deleterious climate change impacts such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. This study investigates the potential for development of a novel climate change - tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California based on Strongylocentrotus fragilis (pink sea urchin), a deep-sea species whose peak density was found to coincide with a current trap-based spot prawn fishery ( Pandalus platyceros ) in the 200-300-m depth range. Here we outline potential criteria for a climate change - tolerant fishery by examining the distribution, life-history attributes, and marketable qualities of S. fragilis in southern California. We provide evidence of seasonality of gonad production and demonstrate that peak gonad production occurs in the winter season. S. fragilis likely spawns in the spring season as evidenced by consistent minimum gonad indices in the spring/summer seasons across 4 years of sampling (2012-2016). The resiliency of S. fragilis to predicted future increases in acidity and decreases in oxygen was supported by high species abundance, albeit reduced relative growth rate estimates at water depths (485-510 m) subject to low oxygen (11.7-16.9 µmol kg -1 ) and pH Total (<7.44), which may provide assurances to stakeholders and managers regarding the suitability of this species for commercial exploitation. Some food quality properties of the S. fragilis roe (e.g. colour, texture) were comparable with those of the commercially exploited shallow-water red sea urchin ( Mesocentrotus franciscanus ), while other qualities (e.g. 80% reduced gonad size by weight) limit the potential future marketability of S. fragilis . This case study highlights the potential future challenges and drawbacks of climate-tolerant fishery development in an attempt to inform future urchin fishery stakeholders.

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason P.; Argueso, Daniel; Fita, Lluis; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-11-01

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identified using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simulations using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional climate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100-200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be fewer ECLs, with weaker intensity in the future. There could also be a seasonal shift in ECLs from cool months to warm months. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the water security on the east coast of Australia.

Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production

Treesearch

Jyh-Min Chiang; Louts [Louis] R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim J. Brown

2008-01-01

Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (...

Fuel variability following wildfire in forests with mixed severity fire regimes, Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

Jessica L. Hudec; David L. Peterson

2012-01-01

Fire severity influences post-burn structure and composition of a forest and the potential for a future fire to burn through the area. The effects of fire on forests with mixed severity fire regimes are difficult to predict and interpret because the quantity, structure, and composition of forest fuels vary considerably. This study examines the relationship between fire...

Army Research Laboratory S&T Campaign Plans 2015-2035

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

addressing propagation effects, impact of wind noise on detection range and angular accuracy. Use of vector sensors is one approach for potential advances...for the future warfighter, such as new protective and responsive materials, sensors , and munitions. Polymer Chemistry explores the molecular-level...ultimately enable the design and development of novel materials, molecular sensors , and nanoscale machines that exploit the exceptional capabilities of

Impact of Brexit on the forest products industry of the United Kingdom and the rest of the world

Treesearch

Craig M. T. Johnston; Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model was applied to forecast the effect of Brexit on the global forest products industry to2003 under two scenarios; an optimistic and pessimistic future storyline regarding the potential economic effect of Brexit. The forecasts integrated a range of gross domestic product growth rates using an average of the optimistic and...

Conceptual Design of Future Undersea Unmanned Vehicle (UUV) System for Mine Disposal

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

disproportionate effect of a single mine strike might be enough to threaten mission accomplishment of combat forces. Some potential impacts of enemy mining...parameters, which include vehicle conditions, hotel power, payload conditions, and environmental conditions. The vehicle configuration options are...transit, execution of mission, return transit, and recovery. Each of them is defined by key mission and environmental parameters such as range

Online Support Groups: Nuts and Bolts, Benefits, Limitations and Future Directions. ERIC/CASS Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gary, Juneau M.; Remolino, Linda

Online support groups provide an alternative vehicle of support for people in distress by linking people who have similar problems. They have the potential to improve the access and delivery of support to a wide range of people, including some who would not seek face-to-face support at all. Online support groups reduce the sense of isolation…

Deep-coal potential in the Appalachian Coal Basin, USA: The Kentucky model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haney, D.C.; Chesnut, D.R.

1997-01-01

The Eastern Kentucky Coal Field is located in the Appalachian Basin of the United States and occupies an area of approximately 15,000 square kilometers. The coal beds range from a few centimeters to several meters in thickness and consist of high-grade bituminous coal. Currently the amount of coal mined by surface methods exceeds underground extraction; however, there is a steady and gradual shift toward underground mining. In the future, as near-surface resources are depleted, this trend toward increased underground mining will continue. Knowledge about deeper coals is essential for future economic development of resources. Preliminary investigations indicate that coal-bearing strata with deep-mining potential exist in several parts of eastern Kentucky, especially along the Eastern Kentucky Syncline. Eastern Kentucky coals are Westphalian A through D; however, current production is from major beds of Westphalian A and B. Because coals that occur above drainage are more easily accessible and are generally of better quality, most of the current mining takes place in formations that are at or near the surface. In the future, however, due to environmental regulations and increased demands, it will be necessary to attempt to utilize deeper coals about which little is known. Future development of deep resources will require data from boreholes and high-resolution geophysical-logging techniques. There is also potential for coal-bed methane from the deeper coals which could be an important resource in the Appalachian Coal Basin where a natural gas distribution system already exists.

CASA: tracking the past and plotting the future.

PubMed

Gallagher, M T; Smith, D J; Kirkman-Brown, J C

2018-05-29

The human semen sample carries a wealth of information of varying degrees of accessibility ranging from the traditional visual measures of count and motility to those that need a more computational approach, such as tracking the flagellar waveform. Although computer-aided sperm analysis (CASA) options are becoming more widespread, the gold standard for clinical semen analysis requires trained laboratory staff. In this review we characterise the key attitudes towards the use of CASA and set out areas in which CASA should, and should not, be used and improved. We provide an overview of the current CASA landscape, discussing clinical uses as well as potential areas for the clinical translation of existing research technologies. Finally, we discuss where we see potential for the future of CASA, and how the integration of mathematical modelling and new technologies, such as automated flagellar tracking, may open new doors in clinical semen analysis.

Carbon-nanotube-based liquids: a new class of nanomaterials and their applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phan, Ngoc Minh; Thang Bui, Hung; Nguyen, Manh Hong; Khoi Phan, Hong

2014-03-01

Carbon-nanotube-based liquids—a new class of nanomaterials—have shown many interesting properties and distinctive features offering unprecedented potential for many applications. This paper summarizes the recent progress on the study of the preparation, characterization and properties of carbon-nanotube-based liquids including so-called nanofluids, nanolubricants and different kinds of nanosolutions containing multi-walled carbon nanotubes/single-walled carbon nanotubes/graphene. A broad range of current and future applications of these nanomaterials in the fields of energy saving, power electronic and optoelectronic devices, biotechnology and agriculture are presented. The paper also identifies challenges and opportunities for future research.

Washington Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Data From Potential Field Studies

DOE Data Explorer

Anderson, Megan; Ritzinger, Brent; Glen, Jonathan; Schermerhorn, William

2017-12-20

A recent study which adapts play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology to assess geothermal potential was conducted at three locations (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens seismic zone, and Wind River valley) along the Washington Cascade Range (Forson et al. 2017). Potential field (gravity and magnetic) methods which can detect subsurface contrasts in physical properties, provides a means for mapping and modeling subsurface geology and structure. As part of the WA-Cascade PFA project, we performed potential field studies by collecting high-resolution gravity and ground-magnetic data, and rock property measurements to (1) identify and constrain fault geometries (2) constrain subsurface lithologic distribution (3) study fault interactions (4) identify areas favorable to hydrothermal flow, and ultimately (5) guide future geothermal exploration at each location.

Temporal and spatial variation of hydrological condition in the Ziwu River Basin of the Han River in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ziyan; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Qiang; Bai, Tao; Zhou, Shuai; Lin, Mu

2018-06-01

The middle route of South-To-North Water Diversion in China transfers water from the Han River and Han-To-Wei Water Diversion project of Shaanxi Province will transfer water from the Ziwu River, which is a tributary of the Han River. In order to gain a better understanding of future changes in the hydrological conditions within the Ziwu River basin, a Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend analysis is coupled with a persistence analysis using the rescaled range analysis (R/S) method. The future change in the hydrological characteristics of the Ziwu River basin is obtained by analysing the change of meteorological factors. The results show that, the future precipitation and potential evaporation are seasonal, and the spatial variation is significant. The proportion of basin area where the spring, summer, autumn and winter precipitation is predicted to continue increase is 0.00, 100.00, 19.00 and 16.00 %, meanwhile, the proportion of basin area that will continue to decrease in the future respectively will be 100.00, 0.00, 81.00 and 74.00 %.The future potential evapotranspiration of the four seasons in the basin shows a decreasing trend. The future water supply situation in the spring and autumn of the Ziwu River basin will degrade, and the future water supply situation in the summer and winter will improve. In addition, the areas with the same water supply situation are relatively concentrated. The results will provide scientific basis for the planning and management of river basin water resources and socio-hydrological processes analysis.

Future Remains: Industrial Heritage at the Hanford Plutonium Works

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freer, Brian

This dissertation argues that U.S. environmental and historic preservation regulations, industrial heritage projects, history, and art only provide partial frameworks for successfully transmitting an informed story into the long range future about nuclear technology and its related environmental legacy. This argument is important because plutonium from nuclear weapons production is toxic to humans in very small amounts, threatens environmental health, has a half-life of 24, 110 years and because the industrial heritage project at Hanford is the first time an entire U.S. Department of Energy weapons production site has been designated a U.S. Historic District. This research is situated within anthropological interest in industrial heritage studies, environmental anthropology, applied visual anthropology, as well as wider discourses on nuclear studies. However, none of these disciplines is really designed or intended to be a completely satisfactory frame of reference for addressing this perplexing challenge of documenting and conveying an informed story about nuclear technology and its related environmental legacy into the long range future. Others have thought about this question and have made important contributions toward a potential solution. Examples here include: future generations movements concerning intergenerational equity as evidenced in scholarship, law, and amongst Native American groups; Nez Perce and Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation responses to the Hanford End State Vision and Hanford's Canyon Disposition Initiative; as well as the findings of organizational scholars on the advantages realized by organizations that have a long term future perspective. While these ideas inform the main line inquiry of this dissertation, the principal approach put forth by the researcher of how to convey an informed story about nuclear technology and waste into the long range future is implementation of the proposed Future Remains clause, as originated by the author, by amendment to two U.S. federal laws: National Historic Preservation Act and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act. The dissertation provides a case study in public anthropology. The findings of the dissertation include recommendations whereby the Future Remains clause gives historic preservation and cultural resources a leading and ongoing role in facilitating real-time forward looking historical documentation at environmental restoration projects at United States National Priorities List (i.e., "Superfund") sites.

Pseudo-icosahedral Cr55Al232 -δ as a high-temperature protective material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosa, R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Pabla, J.; He, H.; Misuraca, J.; Nakajima, Y.; Bender, A. D.; Antonacci, A. K.; Adrip, W.; McNally, D. E.; Zebro, A.; Kamenov, P.; Geschwind, G.; Ghose, S.; Dooryhee, E.; Ibrahim, A.; Tritt, T. M.; Aronson, M. C.; Simonson, J. W.

2018-03-01

We report here a course of basic research into the potential suitability of a pseudo-icosahedral Cr aluminide as a material for high-temperature protective coatings. Cr55Al232 -δ [ δ =2.70 (6 ) ] exhibits high hardness at room temperature as well as low thermal conductivity and excellent oxidation resistance at 973 K, with an oxidation rate comparable to those of softer, denser benchmark materials. The origin of these promising properties can be traced to competing long-range and short-range symmetries within the pseudo-icosahedral crystal structure, suggesting new criteria for future materials research.

Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.

PubMed Central

Reiter, P

2001-01-01

Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence. PMID:11250812

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales. PMID:23555771

Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, William K.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Miller, Norman L.; Running, Steven W.

2012-01-01

Background/Question/Methods Currently, the United States (U.S.) supplies roughly half the world’s biofuel (secondary bioenergy), with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) stipulating an additional three-fold increase in annual production by 2022. Implicit in such energy targets is an associated increase in annual biomass demand (primary bioenergy) from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 exajoules (EJ; 1018 Joules). Yet, many of the factors used to estimate future bioenergy potential are relatively unresolved, bringing into question the practicality of the EISA’s ambitious bioenergy targets. Here, our objective was to constrain estimates of primary bioenergy potential (PBP) for the conterminous U.S. using satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data (measured for every 1 km2 of the 7.2 million km2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S) as the most geographically explicit measure of terrestrial growth capacity. Results/Conclusions We show that the annual primary bioenergy potential (PBP) of the conterminous U.S. realistically ranges from approximately 5.9 (± 1.4) to 22.2 (± 4.4) EJ, depending on land use. The low end of this range represents current harvest residuals, an attractive potential energy source since no additional harvest land is required. In contrast, the high end represents an annual harvest over an additional 5.4 million km2 or 75% of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S. While we identify EISA energy targets as achievable, our results indicate that meeting such targets using current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current croplands or the conversion of 60% of total rangelands. Our results differ from previous evaluations in that we use high resolution, satellite-derived NPP as an upper-envelope constraint on bioenergy potential, which removes the need for extrapolation of plot-level observed yields over large spatial areas. Establishing realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential seems a critical next step for effectively incorporating bioenergy into future U.S. energy portfolios.

Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia.

PubMed

Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Pimm, Stuart L

2015-01-01

Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species' ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800 m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800 m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400 m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species' elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species' elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species’ ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations. PMID:26641477

Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Alder, J.R.; Allan, A.M.

2011-01-01

We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs. All simulations span the present (for example, 1968-1999), common periods of the future (2040-2069), and two simulations continuously cover 2010-2099. The trace gas concentrations in our simulations were the same as those of the GCMs: the IPCC 20th century time series for 1968-1999 and the A2 time series for simulations of the future. We demonstrate that RegCM3 is capable of producing present day annual and seasonal climatologies of air temperature and precipitation that are in good agreement with observations. Important features of the high-resolution climatology of temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture are consistently reproduced in all model runs over WNA and ENA. The simulations provide a potential range of future climate change for selected decades and display common patterns of the direction and magnitude of changes. As expected, there are some model to model differences that limit interpretability and give rise to uncertainties. Here, we provide background information about the GCMs and the RegCM3, a basic evaluation of the model output and examples of simulated future climate. We also provide information needed to access the web applications for visualizing and downloading the data, and give complete metadata that describe the variables in the datasets.

Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

2017-05-01

In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

2016-01-01

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

Arctic climate tipping points.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M

2012-02-01

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on groundwater recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I. P.

2007-12-01

This paper assesses the significance of the many sources of uncertainty in future groundwater recharge estimation, based on lessons learnt from an integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge in East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect simulations of future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping, rotations and management practices. Stochastic modelling of potential recharge showed median annual recharge decreasing under a High emissions future from 75 mm (1961-90) to 56 mm in the 2020s and 45 mm in the 2050s. However, the median values for individual simulations ranged from 46-75 mm (2020s) and 30-71 mm (2050s) highlighting a decreasing but uncertain trend. The impacts of (and uncertainty in) the climate scenarios are generally regionally more important than those of the socio-economic scenarios. However, locally, the impacts of the socio-economic scenarios can be significant, especially where there are large increases in urbanization, agricultural land cover, bioenergy production, or agricultural management practices. For example, management of soil conditions can increase potential groundwater recharge by around 5 %, but poor management can further reduce potential recharge by up to 15 %. The paper will demonstrate that to focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists

Development costs of reusable launch vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koelle, D.

2002-07-01

The paper deals first with the definition and understanding of "Development Costs" in general. Usually there is large difference between initial "development cost guesses", "Proposal Cost Estimations" and the final "Cost-to-Completion". The reasons for the usual development cost increases during development are discussed. The second part discusses the range of historic launch systems' development costs under "Business-as-Usual" (BaU) - Conditions and potential cost reductions for future developments of RLVs, as well as the comparison to commercial, industrial development cost. Part three covers the potential reduction of development cost by application of "Cost Engineering Principles". An example of the large potential cost range (between 6 and 17 Billion USD) for the development of the same winged rocket-propelled SSTO launch vehicle concept is presented. Finally the tremendous development cost differences are shown which exist for the different potential Reusable Launch System Options which are under discussion. There remains an unresolved problem between the primary goals of the national space agencies with emphasis on new technology development/national prestige and the commercial market requirement of a simple low-cost RLV-System.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

PubMed

Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

Potential benefits for propfan technology on derivatives of future short- to medium-range transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldsmith, I. M.; Bowles, J. V.

1980-01-01

It is noted that several NASA-sponsored studies have identified a substantial potential fuel savings for high subsonic speed aircraft utilizing the propfan concept compared to the equivalent technology turbofan aircraft. Attention is given to a feasibility study for propfan-powered short- to medium-haul commercial transport aircraft conducted to evaluate potential fuel savings and identify critical technology requirements using the latest propfan performance data. An analysis is made of the design and performance characteristics of a wing-mounted and two-aft-mounted derivative propfan aircraft configurations, based on a DC-9 Super 80 airframe, which are compared to the baseline turbofan design. Finally, recommendations for further research efforts are also made.

Free cooling phase-diagram of hard-spheres with short- and long-range interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, S.; Thornton, A. R.; Luding, S.

2014-10-01

We study the stability, the clustering and the phase-diagram of free cooling granular gases. The systems consist of mono-disperse particles with additional non-contact (long-range) interactions, and are simulated here by the event-driven molecular dynamics algorithm with discrete (short-range shoulders or wells) potentials (in both 2D and 3D). Astonishingly good agreement is found with a mean field theory, where only the energy dissipation term is modified to account for both repulsive or attractive non-contact interactions. Attractive potentials enhance cooling and structure formation (clustering), whereas repulsive potentials reduce it, as intuition suggests. The system evolution is controlled by a single parameter: the non-contact potential strength scaled by the fluctuation kinetic energy (granular temperature). When this is small, as expected, the classical homogeneous cooling state is found. However, if the effective dissipation is strong enough, structure formation proceeds, before (in the repulsive case) non-contact forces get strong enough to undo the clustering (due to the ongoing dissipation of granular temperature). For both repulsive and attractive potentials, in the homogeneous regime, the cooling shows a universal behaviour when the (inverse) control parameter is used as evolution variable instead of time. The transition to a non-homogeneous regime, as predicted by stability analysis, is affected by both dissipation and potential strength. This can be cast into a phase diagram where the system changes with time, which leaves open many challenges for future research.

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of potential impacts of climate change and water management on streamflow in the Rovuma River, Mozambique and Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minihane, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-12-01

Economic development and public health are tied to water resources development in many parts of the world. Effective use of water management infrastructure investments requires projections of future climatic and water use conditions. This is particularly true in developing countries. We explore in this work water resource availability in the Rovuma River, which lies in a sparsely-populated region of southeastern Africa, on the border of Mozambique and Tanzania. While there are only limited documented observations of flow of the Rovuma River and it's tributaries, particularly in recent years, there is widespread interest in development of the water resources of the region. The national governments are interested in hydropower potential while private companies, many of them large multinational organizations, have started irrigation programs to increase agricultural output. While the Mozambique and Tanzania governments have a joint agreement over the river development, there is a need to assess both current and potential future water resource conditions in the basin. The sustainability of these developments, however, may be affected by climate change. Here we quantify potential changes in streamflow in the Rovuma River under dry and wet climate projection scenarios using the delta method and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrology model. We then evaluate streamflow changes relative to water withdrawals required for a range of irrigated agriculture scenarios. Our analysis is intended to be a starting point for planners to consider potential impacts of both streamflow withdrawal permits (for irrigated agriculture) and future uncertain climate conditions.

Demographic stability metrics for conservation prioritization of isolated populations.

PubMed

Finn, Debra S; Bogan, Michael T; Lytle, David A

2009-10-01

Systems of geographically isolated habitat patches house species that occur naturally as small, disjunct populations. Many of these species are of conservation concern, particularly under the interacting influences of isolation and rapid global change. One potential conservation strategy is to prioritize the populations most likely to persist through change and act as sources for future recolonization of less stable localities. We propose an approach to classify long-term population stability (and, presumably, future persistence potential) with composite demographic metrics derived from standard population-genetic data. Stability metrics can be related to simple habitat measures for a straightforward method of classifying localities to inform conservation management. We tested these ideas in a system of isolated desert headwater streams with mitochondrial sequence data from 16 populations of a flightless aquatic insect. Populations exhibited a wide range of stability scores, which were significantly predicted by dry-season aquatic habitat size. This preliminary test suggests strong potential for our proposed method of classifying isolated populations according to persistence potential. The approach is complementary to existing methods for prioritizing local habitats according to diversity patterns and should be tested further in other systems and with additional loci to inform composite demographic stability scores.

Immunotherapeutics in Pediatric Autoimmune Central Nervous System Disease: Agents and Mechanisms.

PubMed

Nosadini, Margherita; Sartori, Stefano; Sharma, Suvasini; Dale, Russell C

2017-08-01

Beyond the major advances produced by careful clinical-radiological phenotyping and biomarker development in autoimmune central nervous system disorders, a comprehensive knowledge of the range of available immune therapies and a deeper understanding of their action should benefit therapeutic decision-making. This review discusses the agents used in neuroimmunology and their mechanisms of action. First-line treatments typically include corticosteroids, intravenous immunoglobulin, and plasmapheresis, while for severe disease second-line "induction" agents such as rituximab or cyclophosphamide are used. Steroid-sparing agents such as mycophenolate, azathioprine, or methotrexate are often used in potentially relapsing or corticosteroid-dependent diseases. Lessons from adult neuroimmunology and rheumatology could be translated into pediatric autoimmune central nervous system disease in the future, including the potential utility of monoclonal antibodies targeting lymphocytes, adhesion molecules for lymphocytic migration, cytokines or their receptors, or complement. Finally, many agents used in other fields have multiple mechanisms of action, including immunomodulation, with potential usefulness in neuroimmunology, such as antibiotics, psychotropic drugs, probiotics, gut health, and ketogenic diet. All currently accepted and future potential agents have adverse effects, which can be severe; therefore, a "risk-versus-benefit" determination should guide therapeutic decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

PubMed

Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

2017-10-31

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

PubMed Central

Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

2017-01-01

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere. PMID:29078312

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

PubMed Central

Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

PubMed

Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

What about Place? Considering the Role of Physical Environment on Youth Imagining of Future Possible Selves

PubMed Central

Prince, Dana

2013-01-01

Identity research indicates that development of well elaborated cognitions about oneself in the future, or one's possible selves, is consequential for youths' developmental trajectories, influencing a range of social, health, and educational outcomes. Although the theory of possible selves considers the role of social contexts in identity development, the potential influence of the physical environment is understudied. At the same time, a growing body of work spanning multiple disciplines points to the salience of place, or the meaningful physical environments of people's everyday lives, as an active contributor to self-identity. Bridging these two lines of inquiry, I provide evidence to show how place-based experiences, such as belonging, aversion, and entrapment, may be internalized and encoded into possible selves, thus producing emplaced future self-concept. I suggest that for young people, visioning self in the future is inextricably bound with place; place is an active contributor both in the present development of future self-concept and in enabling young people to envision different future possible places. Implications for practice and future research include place-making interventions and conceptualizing place beyond “neighborhood effects.” PMID:25642137

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, Joshua J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2010-01-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the Western hemisphere.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J; Shafer, Sarah L; Bancroft, Betsy A; Blaustein, Andrew R

2010-02-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

PubMed Central

Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

2013-01-01

Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

Prehistoric earthquakes on the Caribbean-South American plate boundary, central Range Fault, Trinidad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prentice, Carol S.; Crosby, Christopher J.; Weber, John C.; Ragona, Daniel

2010-01-01

Recent geodetic studies suggest that the Central Range fault is the principal plate-boundary structure accommodating strike-slip motion between the Caribbean and South American plates. Our study shows that the fault forms a topographically prominent lineament in central Trinidad. Results from a paleoseismic investigation at a site where Holocene sediments have been deposited across the Central Range fault indicate that it ruptured the ground surface most recently between 2710 and 550 yr B.P. If the geodetic slip rate of 9–15 mm/yr is representative of Holocene slip rates, our paleoseismic data suggest that at least 4.9 m of potential slip may have accumulated on the fault and could be released during a future large earthquake (M > 7).

U.S. Air Force Bomber Sustainment and Modernization: Background and Issues for Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-23

the B-2’ s self- defense capabilities against U.S. Air Force Bomber Sustainment and Modernization: Issues for Congress...Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st Century Defense ; • the effectiveness and sustainability of the Air Force’s continuous...decisions considered by Congress, could have potential consequences for future national defense strategies and on U.S. long-range strike

Tactical Infrasound

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

received briefings on a variety of infra - sonic sensor systenis. Materials were also received from the 2001 and 2002 Infrasonic Technology Workshops and...Systems to Tactical Acoustic Sys- tems One issue to be considered in the evaluation of a p)otential tactical infra - sonic system is the ability to...Communication range Fixed Fixed 5 km 7.4 A Design Approach for a Future Tactical Infra - sonic Sensor System This section describes a procedure used to

Marine Transportation System Performance Measures Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

A. Protopapas, D. Bierling, L. E . Olson, B. Wang, and M. Khodakarami. 2014. Integrating MTS commerce data with multimodal freight transportation...suggests using ob- served data to develop models that explore a wide range of future scenar- ios and provide insight into potential effects on MTS...sources were the FT920 – U.S. Merchandise Trade: Selected Highlights (for total, water and air data , published by U.S. Department of Commerce , U.S

A study of the efficiency of hydrogen liquefaction. [jet aircraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, C. R.; Shaner, R. L.

1976-01-01

The search for an environmentally acceptable fuel to eventually replace petroleum-based fuels for long-range jet aircraft has singled out liquid hydrogen as an outstanding candidate. Hydrogen liquefaction is discussed, along with the effect of several operating parameters on process efficiency. A feasible large-scale commercial hydrogen liquefaction facility based on the results of the efficiency study is described. Potential future improvements in hydrogen liquefaction are noted.

The Science-Policy Link: Stakeholder Reactions to the Uncertainties of Future Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Bye, B.

2011-12-01

Policy makers and stakeholders in the coastal zone are equally challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation. More than 40% of the global population is living in or near the coastal zone and this fraction is steadily increasing. A rise in LSL will increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and population dramatically, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Policy makers are faced with a trade-off between imposing today the often very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations. They are in need of actionable information that provides guidance for the development of coastal zones resilient to future sea level changes. Part of this actionable information comes from risk and vulnerability assessments, which require information on future LSL changes as input. In most cases, a deterministic approach has been applied based on predictions of the plausible range of future LSL trajectories as input. However, there is little consensus in the scientific community on how these trajectories should be determined, and what the boundaries of the plausible range are. Over the last few years, many publications in Science, Nature and other peer-reviewed scientific journals have revealed a broad range of possible futures and significant epistemic uncertainties and gaps concerning LSL changes. Based on the somewhat diffuse science input, policy and decision makers have made rather different choices for mitigation and adaptation in cases such as Venice, The Netherlands, New York City, and the San Francisco Bay area. Replacing the deterministic, prediction-based approach with a statistical one that fully accounts for the uncertainties and epistemic gaps would provide a different kind of science input to policy makers and stakeholders. Like in many other insurance problems (for example, earthquakes), where deterministic predictions are not possible and decisions have to be made on the basis of statistics and probabilities, the statistical approach to coastal resilience would require stakeholders to make decisions on the basis of probabilities instead of predictions. The science input for informed decisions on adaptation would consist of general probabilities of decadal to century scale sea level changes derived from paleo records, including the probabilities for large and rapid rises. Similar to other problems where the appearance of a hazard is associated with a high risk (like a fire in a house), this approach would also require a monitoring and warning system (a "smoke detector") capable of detecting any onset of a rapid sea level rise.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H; Arneth, Almut; Baranzelli, Claudia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Brown, Calum; Butler, Adam; Calvin, Katherine; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Doelman, Jonathan C; Dunford, Robert; Engström, Kerstin; Eitelberg, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harrison, Paula A; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Holzhauer, Sascha; Humpenöder, Florian; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Lavalle, Carlo; Lenton, Tim; Liu, Jiayi; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Powell, Tom; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Stehfest, Elke; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; Wise, Marshall A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-02-01

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

PubMed Central

Tang, Cindy Q.; Dong, Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira, Sonia; Matsui, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Haruka; He, Long-Yuan; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Tomita, Mizuki; Li, Xiao-Shuang; Yan, Hai-Zhong; Peng, Ming-Chun; Hu, Jun; Yang, Ruo-Han; Li, Wang-Jun; Yan, Kai; Hou, Xiuli; Zhang, Zhi-Ying; López-Pujol, Jordi

2017-01-01

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata. PMID:28272437

Integrating Solar into Florida's Power System: Potential Roles for Flexibility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hale, Elaine T; Stoll, Brady; Novacheck, Joshua E

Although Florida has very little photovoltaic (PV) generation to date, it is reasonable to expect significant deployment in the 2020s under a variety of future policy and cost scenarios. To understand these potential futures, we model Florida Reliability Coordinating Council operations in 2026 over a wide range of PV penetrations with various combinations of battery storage capacity, demand response, and increased operational flexibility. By calculating the value of PV under a wide range of conditions, we find that at least 5%, and more likely 10-24%, PV penetration is cost competitive in Florida within the next decade with baseline flexibility andmore » all but the most pessimistic of assumptions. For high PV penetrations, we demonstrate Florida's electrical net-load variability (duck curve) challenges, the associated reduction of PV's value to the system, and the ability of flexibility options-in particular energy-shifting resources-to preserve value and increase the economic carrying capacity of PV. A high level of demand response boosts the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 0.5-2 percentage points, which is comparable to the impact of deploying 1 GW of battery storage. Adding 4 GW of battery storage expands the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 6 percentage points.« less

Development of a Strontium Magneto-Optical Trap for Probing Casimir-Polder Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Paul J.

In recent years, cold atoms have been the centerpiece of many remarkably sensitive measurements, and much effort has been made to devise miniaturized quantum sensors and quantum information processing devices. At small distances, however, mechanical effects of the quantum vacuum begin to significantly impact the behavior of the cold-atom systems. A better understanding of how surface composition and geometry affect Casimir and Casimir-Polder potentials would benefit future engineering of small-scale devices. Unfortunately, theoretical solutions are limited and the number of experimental techniques that can accurately detect such short-range forces is relatively small. We believe the exemplary properties of atomic strontium--which have enabled unprecedented frequency metrology in optical lattice clocks--make it an ideal candidate for probing slight spectroscopic perturbations caused by vacuum fluctuations. To that end, we have constructed a magneto-optical trap for strontium to enable future study of atom-surface potentials, and the apparatus and proposed detection scheme are discussed herein. Of special note is a passively stable external-cavity diode laser we developed that is both affordable and competitive with high-end commercial options.

Singlet-catalyzed electroweak phase transitions in the 100 TeV frontier

DOE PAGES

Kotwal, Ashutosh V.; Ramsey-Musolf, Michael J.; No, Jose Miguel; ...

2016-08-23

We study the prospects for probing a gauge singlet scalar-driven strong first-order electroweak phase transition with a future proton-proton collider in the 100 TeV range. Singlet-Higgs mixing enables resonantly enhanced di-Higgs production, potentially aiding discovery prospects. We perform Monte Carlo scans of the parameter space to identify regions associated with a strong first-order electroweak phase transition, analyze the corresponding di-Higgs signal, and select a set of benchmark points that span the range of di-Higgs signal strengths. For the bmore » $$\\bar{b}$$γγ and 4τ final states, we investigate discovery prospects for each benchmark point for the high-luminosity phase of the Large Hadron Collider and for a future pp collider with s=50, 100, or 200 TeV. We find that any of these future collider scenarios could significantly extend the reach beyond that of the high-luminosity LHC, and that with s=100 TeV (200 TeV) and 30 ab -1, the full region of parameter space favorable to strong first-order electroweak phase transitions is almost fully (fully) discoverable.« less

Mental Health and School Functioning for Girls in the Child Welfare System: the Mediating Role of Future Orientation and School Engagement.

PubMed

Threlfall, Jennifer M; Auslander, Wendy; Gerke, Donald; McGinnis, Hollee; Myers Tlapek, Sarah

2017-01-01

This study investigated the association between mental health problems and academic and behavioral school functioning for adolescent girls in the child welfare system and determined whether school engagement and future orientation meditated the relationship. Participants were 231 girls aged between 12 and 19 who had been involved with the child welfare system. Results indicated that 39% of girls reported depressive symptoms in the clinical range and 54% reported posttraumatic symptoms in the clinical range. The most common school functioning problems reported were failing a class (41%) and physical fights with other students (35%). Participants reported a mean number of 1.7 school functioning problems. Higher levels of depression and PTSD were significantly associated with more school functioning problems. School engagement fully mediated the relationship between depression and school functioning and between PTSD and school functioning, both models controlling for age, race, and placement stability. Future orientation was not significantly associated with school functioning problems at the bivariate level. Findings suggest that school engagement is a potentially modifiable target for interventions aiming to ameliorate the negative influence of mental health problems on school functioning for adolescent girls with histories of abuse or neglect.

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Impact of climate and host availability on future distribution of Colorado potato beetle.

PubMed

Wang, Cong; Hawthorne, David; Qin, Yujia; Pan, Xubin; Li, Zhihong; Zhu, Shuifang

2017-07-03

Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB) is a devastating invasive pest of potato both in its native North America and now across Eurasia. It also damages eggplant, tomato and feeds on several wild species in the Solanaceae, such as S. eleagnifolium and S. rostratum Dunal (SR). Since first categorized as a pest in 1864, CPB has spread rapidly across North America, Europe and Asia. In light of its invasiveness and economic importance, it is necessary to study how climate change and host availability may alter the distribution of the CPB. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were used to anticipate global range expansion as influenced by environmental conditions, and by the possibility of cooperative invasion of CPB and its wild host SR. The results indicate that both CPB and SR can occupy warm areas of North America, South Africa, Europe, China, and Australia. Future climate conditions may promote CPB expansion into northern regions and SR into the circumpolar latitudes. The existing range and continued spread of SR may also assist the global expansion of CPB. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of global climate change and host availability on its potential global distribution.

The 1989 long-range program plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The President's National Space Policy of 1988 reaffirms that space activities serve a variety of vital national goals and objectives, including the strengthening of U.S. scientific, technological, political, economic, and international leadership. The new policy stresses that civil space activities contribute significantly to enhancing America's world leadership. Goals and objectives must be defined and redefined, and each advance toward a given objective must be viewed as a potential building block for future programs. This important evolutionary process for research and development is reflected, describing NASA's program planning for FY89 and later years. This plan outlines the direction of NASA's future activities by discussing goals, objectives, current programs, and plans for the future. The 1989 plan is consistent with national policy for both space and aeronautics, and with the FY89 budget that the President submitted to Congress in February 1988.

Lessons from the GP-B Experience for Future Fundamental Physics Missions in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolodziejczak, Jeffery

2006-01-01

Gravity Probe B launched in April 2004 and completed its science data collection in September 2005, with the objective of sub-milliarcsec measurement of two General Relativistic effects on the spin axis orientation of orbiting gyroscopes. Much of the technology required by GP-B has potential application in future missions intended to make precision measurements. The philosophical approach and experiment design principles developed for GP-B are equally adaptable to these mission concepts. This talk will discuss GP-B's experimental approach and the technological and philosophical lessons learned that apply to future experiments in fundamental physics. Measurement of fundamental constants to high precision, probes of short-range forces, searches for equivalence principle violations, and detection of gravitational waves are examples of concepts and missions that will benefit kern GP-B's experience.

Mapping past, present, and future climatic suitability for invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the United States: a process-based modeling approach using CMIP5 downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, M. A. P.; Marcantonio, M.; Melton, F. S.; Barker, C. M.

2016-12-01

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnelly, Marisa Anne Pella; Marcantonio, Matteo; Melton, Forrest S.; Barker, Christopher M.

2016-01-01

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

Policies to Enhance Prescribing Efficiency in Europe: Findings and Future Implications

PubMed Central

Godman, Brian; Shrank, William; Andersen, Morten; Berg, Christian; Bishop, Iain; Burkhardt, Thomas; Garuoliene, Kristina; Herholz, Harald; Joppi, Roberta; Kalaba, Marija; Laius, Ott; Lonsdale, Julie; Malmström, Rickard E.; Martikainen, Jaana E.; Samaluk, Vita; Sermet, Catherine; Schwabe, Ulrich; Teixeira, Inês; Tilson, Lesley; Tulunay, F. Cankat; Vlahović-Palčevski, Vera; Wendykowska, Kamila; Wettermark, Bjorn; Zara, Corinne; Gustafsson, Lars L.

2010-01-01

Introduction: European countries need to learn from each other to address unsustainable increases in pharmaceutical expenditures. Objective: To assess the influence of the many supply and demand-side initiatives introduced across Europe to enhance prescribing efficiency in ambulatory care. As a result provide future guidance to countries. Methods: Cross national retrospective observational study of utilization (DDDs – defined daily doses) and expenditure (Euros and local currency) of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and statins among 19 European countries and regions principally from 2001 to 2007. Demand-side measures categorized under the “4Es” – education engineering, economics, and enforcement. Results: Instigating supply side initiatives to lower the price of generics combined with demand-side measures to enhance their prescribing is important to maximize prescribing efficiency. Just addressing one component will limit potential efficiency gains. The influence of demand-side reforms appears additive, with multiple initiatives typically having a greater influence on increasing prescribing efficiency than single measures apart from potentially “enforcement.” There are also appreciable differences in expenditure (€/1000 inhabitants/year) between countries. Countries that have not introduced multiple demand side measures to counteract commercial pressures to enhance the prescribing of generics have seen considerably higher expenditures than those that have instigated a range of measures. Conclusions: There are considerable opportunities for European countries to enhance their prescribing efficiency, with countries already learning from each other. The 4E methodology allows European countries to concisely capture the range of current demand-side measures and plan for the future knowing that initiatives can be additive to further enhance their prescribing efficiency. PMID:21833180

Potential reduction in terrestrial salamander ranges associated with Marcellus shale development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brand, Adrianne B,; Wiewel, Amber N. M.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2014-01-01

Natural gas production from the Marcellus shale is rapidly increasing in the northeastern United States. Most of the endemic terrestrial salamander species in the region are classified as ‘globally secure’ by the IUCN, primarily because much of their ranges include state- and federally protected lands, which have been presumed to be free from habitat loss. However, the proposed and ongoing development of the Marcellus gas resources may result in significant range restrictions for these and other terrestrial forest salamanders. To begin to address the gaps in our knowledge of the direct impacts of shale gas development, we developed occurrence models for five species of terrestrial plethodontid salamanders found largely within the Marcellus shale play. We predicted future Marcellus shale development under several scenarios. Under scenarios of 10,000, 20,000, and 50,000 new gas wells, we predict 4%, 8%, and 20% forest loss, respectively, within the play. Predictions of habitat loss vary among species, but in general, Plethodon electromorphus and Plethodonwehrlei are predicted to lose the greatest proportion of forested habitat within their ranges if future Marcellus development is based on characteristics of the shale play. If development is based on current well locations,Plethodonrichmondi is predicted to lose the greatest proportion of habitat. Models showed high uncertainty in species’ ranges and emphasize the need for distribution data collected by widespread and repeated, randomized surveys.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Loh, Rhonda; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan; McDaniel, Sierra; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-01-01

Climate change will likely alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in Hawai`i. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park where intensely managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs), focal sites for managing rare and endangered plants, may no longer provide suitable habitat under future climate. Expanding invasive species’ distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. We combine recent climate modeling efforts for the state of Hawai`i with plant species distribution models to forecast changes in biodiversity in SEAs under future climate conditions. Based on this bioclimatic envelope model, we generated projected species range maps for four snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, and 2090) to assess whether the range of 39 native and invasive species of management interest are expected to contract, expand, or remain the same under a moderately warmer and more variable precipitation scenario. Approximately two-thirds of the modeled native species were projected to contract in range, while one-third were shown to increase. Most of the park’s SEAs were projected to lose a majority of the native species modeled. Nine of the 10 modeled invasive species were projected to contract within the park; this trend occurred in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. There was good congruence in the current (2000) distribution of species richness and SEA configuration; however, the congruence between species richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the end of this century. Over time the projected species-rich hotspots increasingly occurred outside of current SEA boundaries. Our research brought together managers and scientists to increase understanding of potential climate change impacts, and provide needed information to address how plants may respond under future conditions relative to current managed areas.

Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment of Genetically Modified Banana Resistant to Xanthomonas Wilt in the Great Lakes Region of Africa

PubMed Central

Ainembabazi, John Herbert; Tripathi, Leena; Rusike, Joseph; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Manyong, Victor

2015-01-01

Background Credible empirical evidence is scanty on the social implications of genetically modified (GM) crops in Africa, especially on vegetatively propagated crops. Little is known about the future success of introducing GM technologies into staple crops such as bananas, which are widely produced and consumed in the Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA). GM banana has a potential to control the destructive banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. Objective To gain a better understanding of future adoption and consumption of GM banana in the GLA countries which are yet to permit the production of GM crops; specifically, to evaluate the potential economic impacts of GM cultivars resistant to banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. Data Sources The paper uses data collected from farmers, traders, agricultural extension agents and key informants in the GLA. Analysis We analyze the perceptions of the respondents about the adoption and consumption of GM crop. Economic surplus model is used to determine future economic benefits and costs of producing GM banana. Results On the release of GM banana for commercialization, the expected initial adoption rate ranges from 21 to 70%, while the ceiling adoption rate is up to 100%. Investment in the development of GM banana is economically viable. However, aggregate benefits vary substantially across the target countries ranging from US$ 20 million to 953 million, highest in countries where disease incidence and production losses are high, ranging from 51 to 83% of production. Conclusion The findings support investment in the development of GM banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease. The main beneficiaries of this technology development are farmers and consumers, although the latter benefit more than the former from reduced prices. Designing a participatory breeding program involving farmers and consumers signifies the successful adoption and consumption of GM banana in the target countries. PMID:26414379

Science Applications of a Multispectral Microscopic Imager for the Astrobiological Exploration of Mars

PubMed Central

Farmer, Jack D.; Sellar, R. Glenn; Swayze, Gregg A.; Blaney, Diana L.

2014-01-01

Abstract Future astrobiological missions to Mars are likely to emphasize the use of rovers with in situ petrologic capabilities for selecting the best samples at a site for in situ analysis with onboard lab instruments or for caching for potential return to Earth. Such observations are central to an understanding of the potential for past habitable conditions at a site and for identifying samples most likely to harbor fossil biosignatures. The Multispectral Microscopic Imager (MMI) provides multispectral reflectance images of geological samples at the microscale, where each image pixel is composed of a visible/shortwave infrared spectrum ranging from 0.46 to 1.73 μm. This spectral range enables the discrimination of a wide variety of rock-forming minerals, especially Fe-bearing phases, and the detection of hydrated minerals. The MMI advances beyond the capabilities of current microimagers on Mars by extending the spectral range into the infrared and increasing the number of spectral bands. The design employs multispectral light-emitting diodes and an uncooled indium gallium arsenide focal plane array to achieve a very low mass and high reliability. To better understand and demonstrate the capabilities of the MMI for future surface missions to Mars, we analyzed samples from Mars-relevant analog environments with the MMI. Results indicate that the MMI images faithfully resolve the fine-scale microtextural features of samples and provide important information to help constrain mineral composition. The use of spectral endmember mapping reveals the distribution of Fe-bearing minerals (including silicates and oxides) with high fidelity, along with the presence of hydrated minerals. MMI-based petrogenetic interpretations compare favorably with laboratory-based analyses, revealing the value of the MMI for future in situ rover-mediated astrobiological exploration of Mars. Key Words: Mars—Microscopic imager—Multispectral imaging—Spectroscopy—Habitability—Arm instrument. Astrobiology 14, 132–169. PMID:24552233

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed

Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed Central

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Monahan, William B.; Ziesler, Pamela S.

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation. PMID:26083361

Modeling the present and future geographic distribution of the Lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae), in the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Springer, Yuri P.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Barnett, David T.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2015-01-01

The Lone star tick (Amblyomma americanum L.) is the primary vector for pathogens of significant public health importance in North America, yet relatively little is known about its current and potential future distribution. Building on a published summary of tick collection records, we used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the present-day and future distribution of climatically suitable habitat for establishment of the Lone star tick within the continental United States. Of the nine climatic predictor variables included in our five present-day models, average vapor pressure in July was by far the most important determinant of suitable habitat. The present-day ensemble model predicted an essentially contiguous distribution of suitable habitat extending to the Atlantic coast east of the 100th western meridian and south of the 40th northern parallel, but excluding a high elevation region associated with the Appalachian Mountains. Future ensemble predictions for 2061–2080 forecasted a stable western range limit, northward expansion of suitable habitat into the Upper Midwest and western Pennsylvania, and range contraction along portions of the Gulf coast and the lower Mississippi river valley. These findings are informative for raising awareness of A. americanum-transmitted pathogens in areas where the Lone Star tick has recently or may become established.

The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses--an integrated circumpolar assessment.

PubMed

Gutt, Julian; Bertler, Nancy; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Buschmann, Alexander; Comiso, Josefino; Hosie, Graham; Isla, Enrique; Schloss, Irene R; Smith, Craig R; Tournadre, Jean; Xavier, José C

2015-04-01

A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (<1% area of the SO) are affected by glacier retreat and warming in the deeper euphotic layer. In the future, decrease in the sea-ice is expected to be widespread. Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to <1% for four and five overlapping factors. In the future, areas expected to be affected by 2 and 3 overlapping factors are equally large, including potential iceberg changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can We Power Future Mars Missions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Sturm, Erick J., II; Woolley, Ryan C.; Jordan, James F.

2006-01-01

The Vision for Space Exploration identified the exploration of Mars as one of the key pathways. In response, NASAs Mars Program Office is developing a detailed mission lineup for the next decade that would lead to future explorations. Mission architectures for the next decade include both orbiters and landers. Existing power technologies, which could include solar panels, batteries, radioisotope power systems, and in the future fission power, could support these missions. Second and third decade explorations could target human precursor and human in-situ missions, building on increasingly complex architectures. Some of these could use potential feed forward from earlier Constellation missions to the Moon, discussed in the ESAS study. From a potential Mars Sample Return mission to human missions the complexity of the architectures increases, and with it the delivered mass and power requirements also amplify. The delivered mass at Mars mostly depends on the launch vehicle, while the landed mass might be further limited by EDL technologies, including the aeroshell, parachutes, landing platform, and pinpoint landing. The resulting in-situ mass could be further divided into payload elements and suitable supporting power systems. These power systems can range from tens of watts to multi-kilowatts, influenced by mission type, mission configuration, landing location, mission duration, and season. Regardless, the power system design should match the power needs of these surface assets within a given architecture. Consequently, in this paper we will identify potential needs and bounds of delivered mass and architecture dependent power requirements to surface assets that would enable future in-situ exploration of Mars.

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of twomore » naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.« less

Estimating future temperature maxima in lakes across the United States using a surrogate modeling approach

PubMed Central

Zi, Tan; Schmidt, Michelle; Johnson, Thomas E.; Nover, Daniel M.; Clark, Christopher M.

2017-01-01

A warming climate increases thermal inputs to lakes with potential implications for water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In a previous study, we used a dynamic water column temperature and mixing simulation model to simulate chronic (7-day average) maximum temperatures under a range of potential future climate projections at selected sites representative of different U.S. regions. Here, to extend results to lakes where dynamic models have not been developed, we apply a novel machine learning approach that uses Gaussian Process regression to describe the model response surface as a function of simplified lake characteristics (depth, surface area, water clarity) and climate forcing (winter and summer air temperatures and potential evapotranspiration). We use this approach to extrapolate predictions from the simulation model to the statistical sample of U.S. lakes in the National Lakes Assessment (NLA) database. Results provide a national-scale scoping assessment of the potential thermal risk to lake water quality and ecosystems across the U.S. We suggest a small fraction of lakes will experience less risk of summer thermal stress events due to changes in stratification and mixing dynamics, but most will experience increases. The percentage of lakes in the NLA with simulated 7-day average maximum water temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase from less than 2% to approximately 22% by the end of the 21st century, which could significantly reduce the number of lakes that can support cold water fisheries. Site-specific analysis of the full range of factors that influence thermal profiles in individual lakes is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. PMID:29121058

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poff, N. Leroy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M.; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F.; Dominique, Kathleen C.; Baeza, Andres

2016-01-01

Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poff, N LeRoy; Brown, Casey M; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F; Dominique, Kathleen C; Baeza, Andres

2015-01-01

Managing freshwater resources sustainably under future climatic and hydrological uncertainty poses novel challenges. Rehabilitation of ageing infrastructure and construction of new dams are widely viewed as solutions to diminish climate risk, but attaining the broad goal of freshwater sustainability will require expansion of the prevailing water resources management paradigm beyond narrow economic criteria to include socially valued ecosystem functions and services. We introduce a new decision framework, eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS), that explicitly and quantitatively explores trade-offs in stakeholder-defined engineering and ecological performance metrics across a range of possible management actions under unknown future hydrological and climate states. We illustrate its potential application through a hypothetical case study of the Iowa River, USA. EEDS holds promise as a powerful framework for operationalizing freshwater sustainability under future hydrological uncertainty by fostering collaboration across historically conflicting perspectives of water resource engineering and river conservation ecology to design and operate water infrastructure for social and environmental benefits.

Pseudo-icosahedral Cr 55 Al 232 - δ as a high-temperature protective material

DOE PAGES

Rosa, R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Pabla, J.; ...

2018-03-19

In this paper, we report here a course of basic research into the potential suitability of a pseudo-icosahedral Cr aluminide as a material for high temperature protective coatings. Cr 55Al 232-δ [δ = 2.70(6)] exhibits high hardness at room temperature as well as low thermal conductivity and excellent oxidation resistance at 973 K, with an oxidation rate comparable to those of softer, denser benchmark materials. Lastly, the origin of these promising properties can be traced to competing long-range and short-range symmetries within the pseudo-icosahedral crystal structure, suggesting new criteria for future materials research.

Pseudo-icosahedral Cr 55 Al 232 - δ as a high-temperature protective material

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosa, R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Pabla, J.

In this paper, we report here a course of basic research into the potential suitability of a pseudo-icosahedral Cr aluminide as a material for high temperature protective coatings. Cr 55Al 232-δ [δ = 2.70(6)] exhibits high hardness at room temperature as well as low thermal conductivity and excellent oxidation resistance at 973 K, with an oxidation rate comparable to those of softer, denser benchmark materials. Lastly, the origin of these promising properties can be traced to competing long-range and short-range symmetries within the pseudo-icosahedral crystal structure, suggesting new criteria for future materials research.

Nanoparticle Clusters: Assembly and Control Over Internal Order, Current Capabilities, and Future Potential.

PubMed

Stolarczyk, Jacek K; Deak, Andras; Brougham, Dermot F

2016-07-01

The current state of the art in the use of colloidal methods to form nanoparticle assemblies, or clusters (NPCs) is reviewed. The focus is on the two-step approach, which exploits the advantages of bottom-up wet chemical NP synthesis procedures, with subsequent colloidal destabilization to trigger assembly in a controlled manner. Recent successes in the application of functional NPCs with enhanced emergent collective properties for a wide range of applications, including in biomedical detection, surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) enhancement, photocatalysis, and light harvesting, are highlighted. The role of the NP-NP interactions in the formation of monodisperse ordered clusters is described and the different assembly processes from a wide range of literature sources are classified according to the nature of the perturbation from the initial equilibrium state (dispersed NPs). Finally, the future for the field and the anticipated role of computational approaches in developing next-generation functional NPCs are briefly discussed. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Geographic data from space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Robert H.

1964-01-01

Space science has been called “the collection of scientific problems to which space vehicles can make some specific contributions not achievable by ground-based experiments.” Geography, the most spatial of the sciences, has now been marked as one of these “space sciences.” The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is sponsoring an investigation to identify the Potential geographic benefits from the nation’s space program. This is part of NASA’s long-range inquiry to determine the kinds of scientific activities which might profitably be carried out on future space missions. Among such future activities which are now being planned by NASA are a series of manned earth orbital missions, many of which would be devoted to research. Experiments in physics, astronomy, geophysics, meteorology, and biology are being discussed for these long-range missions. The question which is being put to geographers is, essentially, what would it mean to geographic research to have an observation satellite (or many such satellites) orbiting the earth, gathering data about earth-surface features and environments?

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds.

PubMed

Howard, Christine; Stephens, Philip A; Tobias, Joseph A; Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2018-02-28

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. © 2018 The Authors.

Tests of gravity with future space-based experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakstein, Jeremy

2018-03-01

Future space-based tests of relativistic gravitation—laser ranging to Phobos, accelerometers in orbit, and optical networks surrounding Earth—will constrain the theory of gravity with unprecedented precision by testing the inverse-square law, the strong and weak equivalence principles, and the deflection and time delay of light by massive bodies. In this paper, we estimate the bounds that could be obtained on alternative gravity theories that use screening mechanisms to suppress deviations from general relativity in the Solar System: chameleon, symmetron, and Galileon models. We find that space-based tests of the parametrized post-Newtonian parameter γ will constrain chameleon and symmetron theories to new levels, and that tests of the inverse-square law using laser ranging to Phobos will provide the most stringent constraints on Galileon theories to date. We end by discussing the potential for constraining these theories using upcoming tests of the weak equivalence principle, and conclude that further theoretical modeling is required in order to fully utilize the data.

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

2013-01-01

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft3/s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft3/s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft3/s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft3/s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

Quantum states of neutrons in the gravitational and centrifugal potentials in a new GRANIT spectrometer

ScienceCinema

Nesvizhevsky, Valery

2018-05-14

We will discuss the scientific program to be studied in a new gravitational spectrometer GRANIT in a broad context of quantum states (quantum behaviour) of ultracold neutrons (UCN) in gravitational [1] and centrifugal [2] potentials, as well as applications of these phenomena/spectrometer to various domains of physics, ranging from studies of fundamental short-range interactions and symmetries to neutron quantum optics and reflectometry using UCN. All these topics, as well as related instrumental and methodical developments have been discussed during dedicated GRANIT-2010 Workshop [3]. The GRANIT spectrometer has been recently installed at the Institut Laue-Langevin, Grenoble, France [4] and could become operational in near future. 1. V.V. Nesvizhevsky et al (2002), Nature 415, 297. 2. V.V. Nesvizhevsky et al (2010), Nature Physics 6, 114. 3. GRANIT-2010, Les Houches, 14-19 february 2010. 4. M. Kreuz et al (2009), NIM 611, 326.

Low-cost fabrication technologies for nanostructures: state-of-the-art and potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, A.; Deen, M. J.; Marsal, L. F.

2015-01-01

In the last decade, some low-cost nanofabrication technologies used in several disciplines of nanotechnology have demonstrated promising results in terms of versatility and scalability for producing innovative nanostructures. While conventional nanofabrication technologies such as photolithography are and will be an important part of nanofabrication, some low-cost nanofabrication technologies have demonstrated outstanding capabilities for large-scale production, providing high throughputs with acceptable resolution and broad versatility. Some of these nanotechnological approaches are reviewed in this article, providing information about the fundamentals, limitations and potential future developments towards nanofabrication processes capable of producing a broad range of nanostructures. Furthermore, in many cases, these low-cost nanofabrication approaches can be combined with traditional nanofabrication technologies. This combination is considered a promising way of generating innovative nanostructures suitable for a broad range of applications such as in opto-electronics, nano-electronics, photonics, sensing, biotechnology or medicine.

Recent progress on gas sensor based on quantum cascade lasers and hollow fiber waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ningwu; Sun, Juan; Deng, Hao; Ding, Junya; Zhang, Lei; Li, Jingsong

2017-02-01

Mid-infrared laser spectroscopy provides an ideal platform for trace gas sensing applications. Despite this potential, early MIR sensing applications were limited due to the size of the involved optical components, e.g. light sources and sample cells. A potential solution to this demand is the integration of hollow fiber waveguide with novelty quantum cascade lasers.Recently QCLs had great improvements in power, efficiency and wavelength range, which made the miniaturized platforms for gas sensing maintaining or even enhancing the achievable sensitivity conceivable. So that the miniaturization of QCLs and HWGs can be evolved into a mini sensor, which may be tailored to a variety of real-time and in situ applications ranging from environmental monitoring to workplace safety surveillance. In this article, we introduce QCLs and HWGs, display the applications of HWG based on QCL gas sensing and discuss future strategies for hollow fiber coupled quantum cascade laser gas sensor technology.

Differences in Otolith and Abdominal Viscera Graviceptor Dynamics: Implications for Motion Sickness and Perceived Body Position

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

vonGierke, Henning E.; Parker, Donald E.

1993-01-01

Human graviceptors, located in the trunk by Mittelstaedt probably transduce acceleration by abdominal viscera motion. As demonstrated previously in biodynamic vibration and impact tolerance research the thoraco-abdominal viscera exhibit a resonance at 4 to 6 Hz. Behavioral observations and mechanical models of otolith graviceptor response indicate a phase shift increasing with frequency between 0.01 and O.5 Hz. Consequently the potential exists for intermodality sensory conflict between vestibular and visceral graviceptor signals at least at the mechanical receptor level. The frequency range of this potential conflict corresponds with the primary frequency range for motion sickness incidence in transportation, in subjects rotated about Earth-horizontal axes (barbecue spit stimulation) and in periodic parabolic flight microgravity research and also for erroneous perception of vertical oscillations in helicopters. We discuss the implications of this hypothesis for previous self motion perception research and suggestions for various future studies.

Design of high strength polymer metal interfaces by laser microstructured surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinert, P.; Dittes, A.; Schimmelpfennig, R.; Scharf, I.; Lampke, T.; Schubert, A.

2018-06-01

In the areas of automotive, aeronautics and civil structures, lightweight construction is a current and a future need. Thus, multi material design has rapidly grown in importance, especially hybrid materials based on fiber reinforced plastics and aluminum offer great potential. Therefore, mechanical interlocking is a convenient way of designing the interface. Laser structuring is already used to generate a variety of surface topographies leading to high bond strengths. This paper investigates different laser structures aiming on highest joint strengths for aluminum and glass fiber reinforced polyamide 6 interfaces. Self-organizing pin structures comprised by additional micro/nano features as well as drilled hole structures, both ranging on the micrometer range, are compared to corundum blasting as a standard method for surface conditioning. For the presented surface structures, thermal joining and ultrasonic assisted joining are regarded towards their potential for an optimum joint design.

Eruptive history of the Dieng Mountains region, central Java, and potential hazards from future eruptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, C. Dan; Sushyar, R.; ,; Hamidi, S.

1983-01-01

The Dieng Mountains region consists of a complex of late Quaternary to recent volcanic stratocones, parasitic vents, and explosion craters. Six age groups of volcanic centers, eruptive products, and explosion craters are recognized in the region based on their morphology, degree of dissection, stratigraphic relationships, and degree of weathering. These features range in age from tens of thousands of years to events that have occurred this century. No magmatic eruptions have occurred in the Dieng Mountains region for at least several thousand years; volcanic activity during this time interval has consisted of phreatic eruptions and non-explosive hydrothermal activity. If future volcanic events are similar to those of the last few thousand years, they will consist of phreatic eruptions, associated small hot mudflows, emission of suffocating gases, and hydrothermal activity. Future phreatic eruptions may follow, or accompany, periods of increased earthquake activity; the epicenters for the seismicity may suggest where eruptive activity will occur. Under such circumstances, the populace within several kilometers of a potential eruption site should be warned of a possible eruption, given instructions about what to do in the event of an eruption, or temporarily evacuated to a safer location.

Moderators of wellbeing interventions: Why do some people respond more positively than others?

PubMed Central

Nelson-Coffey, S. Katherine; Layous, Kristin; Jacobs Bao, Katherine; Davis, Oliver S. P.; Haworth, Claire M. A.

2017-01-01

Interventions rarely have a universal effect on all individuals. Reasons ranging from participant characteristics, context and fidelity of intervention completion could cause some people to respond more positively than others. Understanding these individual differences in intervention response may provide clues to the mechanisms behind the intervention, as well as inform future designs to make interventions maximally beneficial for all. Here we focus on an intervention designed to improve adolescent wellbeing, and explore potential moderators using a representative and well-powered sample. 16-year old participants (N = 932) in the Twins Wellbeing Intervention Study logged online once a week to complete control and wellbeing-enhancing activities consecutively. Throughout the study participants also provided information about a range of potential moderators of intervention response including demographics, seasonality, personality, baseline characteristics, activity fit, and effort. As expected, some individuals gained more from the intervention than others; we used multi-level modelling to test for moderation effects that could explain these individual differences. Of the 15 moderators tested, none significantly explained individual differences in intervention response in the intervention and follow-up phases. Self-reported effort and baseline positive affect had a notable effect in moderating response in the control phase, during which there was no overall improvement in wellbeing and mental health. Our results did not replicate the moderation effects that have been suggested by previous literature and future work needs to reconcile these differences. They also show that factors that have previously been shown to influence baseline wellbeing do not also influence an individual’s ability to benefit from a wellbeing intervention. Although future research should continue to explore potential moderators of intervention efficacy, our results suggest that the beneficial effect of positive activities in adolescents were universal across such factors as sex and socioeconomic status, bolstering claims of the scalability of positive activities to increase adolescent wellbeing. PMID:29107994

Moderators of wellbeing interventions: Why do some people respond more positively than others?

PubMed

Wang, R Adele H; Nelson-Coffey, S Katherine; Layous, Kristin; Jacobs Bao, Katherine; Davis, Oliver S P; Haworth, Claire M A

2017-01-01

Interventions rarely have a universal effect on all individuals. Reasons ranging from participant characteristics, context and fidelity of intervention completion could cause some people to respond more positively than others. Understanding these individual differences in intervention response may provide clues to the mechanisms behind the intervention, as well as inform future designs to make interventions maximally beneficial for all. Here we focus on an intervention designed to improve adolescent wellbeing, and explore potential moderators using a representative and well-powered sample. 16-year old participants (N = 932) in the Twins Wellbeing Intervention Study logged online once a week to complete control and wellbeing-enhancing activities consecutively. Throughout the study participants also provided information about a range of potential moderators of intervention response including demographics, seasonality, personality, baseline characteristics, activity fit, and effort. As expected, some individuals gained more from the intervention than others; we used multi-level modelling to test for moderation effects that could explain these individual differences. Of the 15 moderators tested, none significantly explained individual differences in intervention response in the intervention and follow-up phases. Self-reported effort and baseline positive affect had a notable effect in moderating response in the control phase, during which there was no overall improvement in wellbeing and mental health. Our results did not replicate the moderation effects that have been suggested by previous literature and future work needs to reconcile these differences. They also show that factors that have previously been shown to influence baseline wellbeing do not also influence an individual's ability to benefit from a wellbeing intervention. Although future research should continue to explore potential moderators of intervention efficacy, our results suggest that the beneficial effect of positive activities in adolescents were universal across such factors as sex and socioeconomic status, bolstering claims of the scalability of positive activities to increase adolescent wellbeing.

Effect of temperature on the phenology of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera, Crambidae); simulation and visualization of the potential future distribution of C. partellus in Africa under warmer temperatures through the development of life-table parameters.

PubMed

Khadioli, N; Tonnang, Z E H; Muchugu, E; Ong'amo, G; Achia, T; Kipchirchir, I; Kroschel, J; Le Ru, B

2014-12-01

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35 °C), relative humidity of 75±5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35 °C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38 °C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in East Africa.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

PubMed

Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

2016-02-01

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, andmore » BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.« less

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, andmore » BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.« less

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

PubMed

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Mark; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J

2018-02-20

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO 2 e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H 2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO 2 e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO 2 /mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO 2e /mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Recovery of planted loblolly pine 5 years after severe ice storms in Arkansas

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg; Michael G. Shelton

2010-01-01

Following a severe ice storm, one of a landowner’s first considerations regarding the future of their damaged stands should be on the recovery potential of injured crop trees. The ice storms that struck Arkansas in December 2000 provided an opportunity to monitor 410 injured loblolly pines (Pinus taeda L.), representing a wide range of damage in 18 –20-year-old...

Manned orbital systems concepts study. Book 2: Requirements for extended-duration missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

In order to provide essential data needed in long-range program planning, the Manned Orbital Systems Concepts (MOSC) study attempted to define, evaluate, and compare concepts for manned orbital systems that provide extended experiment mission capabilities in space, flexibility of operation, and growth potential. Specific areas discussed include roles and requirements for man in future space missions, requirements for extended capability, mission/payload concepts, and preliminary design and operational requirements.

The ecological future of the North American bison: Conceiving long-term, large-scale conservation of a species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderson, E.W.; Redford, Kent; Weber, Bill; Aune, K.; Baldes, Dick; Berger, J.; Carter, Dave; Curtin, C.; Derr, James N.; Dobrott, S.J.; Fearn, Eva; Fleener, Craig; Forrest, Steven C.; Gerlach, Craig; Gates, C. Cormack; Gross, J.E.; Gogan, P.; Grassel, Shaun M.; Hilty, Jodi A.; Jensen, Marv; Kunkel, Kyran; Lammers, Duane; List, R.; Minkowski, Karen; Olson, Tom; Pague, Chris; Robertson, Paul B.; Stephenson, Bob

2008-01-01

Many wide-ranging mammal species have experienced significant declines over the last 200 years; restoring these species will require long-term, large-scale recovery efforts. We highlight 5 attributes of a recent range-wide vision-setting exercise for ecological recovery of the North American bison (Bison bison) that are broadly applicable to other species and restoration targets. The result of the exercise, the “Vermejo Statement” on bison restoration, is explicitly (1) large scale, (2) long term, (3) inclusive, (4) fulfilling of different values, and (5) ambitious. It reads, in part, “Over the next century, the ecological recovery of the North American bison will occur when multiple large herds move freely across extensive landscapes within all major habitats of their historic range, interacting in ecologically significant ways with the fullest possible set of other native species, and inspiring, sustaining and connecting human cultures.” We refined the vision into a scorecard that illustrates how individual bison herds can contribute to the vision. We also developed a set of maps and analyzed the current and potential future distributions of bison on the basis of expert assessment. Although more than 500,000 bison exist in North America today, we estimated they occupy <1% of their historical range and in no place express the full range of ecological and social values of previous times. By formulating an inclusive, affirmative, and specific vision through consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, we hope to provide a foundation for conservation of bison, and other wide-ranging species, over the next 100 years.

Technology options for an enhanced air cargo system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winston, M. M.

1979-01-01

A view of potential enhancements to the air cargo system through technology application is provided. NASA's role in addressing deficiencies of the current civil and military air cargo systems is outlined. The evolution of conventional airfreighter design is traced and projected through the 1990's. Also, several advanced airfreighter concepts incorporating unconventional design features are described to show their potentials benefits. A number of ongoing NASA technology programs are discussed to indicate the wide range of advanced technologies offering potential benefits to the air cargo system. The promise of advanced airfreighters is then viewed in light of the future air cargo infrastructure predicted by extensive systems studies. The derived outlook concludes that the aircraft technology benefits may be offset somewhat by adverse economic, environmental, and institutional constraints.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Rohat, Guillaume

2018-03-19

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change. PMID:29562727

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species’ distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr−1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities. PMID:27504632

Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: Implications for future range expansion

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDowell, W.G.; Benson, A.J.; Byers, J.E.

2014-01-01

1. Two dominant drivers of species distributions are climate and habitat, both of which are changing rapidly. Understanding the relative importance of variables that can control distributions is critical, especially for invasive species that may spread rapidly and have strong effects on ecosystems. 2. Here, we examine the relative importance of climate and habitat variables in controlling the distribution of the widespread invasive freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea, and we model its future distribution under a suite of climate scenarios using logistic regression and maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt). 3. Logistic regression identified climate variables as more important than habitat variables in controlling Corbicula distribution. MaxEnt modelling predicted Corbicula's range expansion westward and northward to occupy half of the contiguous United States. By 2080, Corbicula's potential range will expand 25–32%, with more than half of the continental United States being climatically suitable. 4. Our combination of multiple approaches has revealed the importance of climate over habitat in controlling Corbicula's distribution and validates the climate-only MaxEnt model, which can readily examine the consequences of future climate projections. 5. Given the strong influence of climate variables on Corbicula's distribution, as well as Corbicula's ability to disperse quickly and over long distances, Corbicula is poised to expand into New England and the northern Midwest of the United States. Thus, the direct effects of climate change will probably be compounded by the addition of Corbicula and its own influences on ecosystem function.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Collaborative engagement experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullens, Katherine; Troyer, Bradley; Wade, Robert; Skibba, Brian; Dunn, Michael

2006-05-01

Unmanned ground and air systems operating in collaboration have the potential to provide future Joint Forces a significant capability for operations in complex terrain. Collaborative Engagement Experiment (CEE) is a consolidation of separate Air Force, Army and Navy collaborative efforts within the Joint Robotics Program (JRP) to provide a picture of the future of unmanned warfare. The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), Material and Manufacturing Directorate, Aerospace Expeditionary Force Division, Force Protection Branch (AFRL/MLQF), The Army Aviation and Missile Research, Development and Engineering Center (AMRDEC) Joint Technology Center (JTC)/Systems Integration Laboratory (SIL), and the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center - San Diego (SSC San Diego) are conducting technical research and proof of principle experiments for an envisioned operational concept for extended range, three dimensional, collaborative operations between unmanned systems, with enhanced situational awareness for lethal operations in complex terrain. This paper describes the work by these organizations to date and outlines some of the plans for future work.

Redefining the potential applications of dental stem cells: An asset for future

PubMed Central

Rai, Shalu; Kaur, Mandeep; Kaur, Sandeep; Arora, Sapna Panjwani

2012-01-01

Recent exciting discoveries isolated dental stem cells from the pulp of the primary and permanent teeth, from the periodontal ligament, and from associated healthy tissues. Dental pulp stem cells (DPSCs) represent a kind of adult cell colony which has the potent capacity of self-renewing and multilineage differentiation. Stem cell-based tooth engineering is deemed as a promising approach to the making of a biological tooth (bio-tooth) or engineering of functional tooth structures. Dental professionals have the opportunity to make their patients aware of these new sources of stem cells that can be stored for future use as new therapies are developed for a range of diseases and injuries. The aim of this article is to review and understand how dental stem cells are being used for regeneration of oral and conversely nonoral tissues. A brief review on banking is also done for storing of these valuable stem cells for future use. PMID:23716933

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

2017-10-01

The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

Probing New Long-Range Interactions by Isotope Shift Spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berengut, Julian C.; Budker, Dmitry; Delaunay, Cédric

We explore a method to probe new long- and intermediate-range interactions using precision atomic isotope shift spectroscopy. We develop a formalism to interpret linear King plots as bounds on new physics with minimal theory inputs. We focus only on bounding the new physics contributions that can be calculated independently of the standard model nuclear effects. We apply our method to existing Ca + data and project its sensitivity to conjectured new bosons with spin-independent couplings to the electron and the neutron using narrow transitions in other atoms and ions, specifically, Sr and Yb. Future measurements are expected to improve themore » relative precision by 5 orders of magnitude, and they can potentially lead to an unprecedented sensitivity for bosons within the 0.3 to 10 MeV mass range.« less

Probing New Long-Range Interactions by Isotope Shift Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Berengut, Julian C; Budker, Dmitry; Delaunay, Cédric; Flambaum, Victor V; Frugiuele, Claudia; Fuchs, Elina; Grojean, Christophe; Harnik, Roni; Ozeri, Roee; Perez, Gilad; Soreq, Yotam

2018-03-02

We explore a method to probe new long- and intermediate-range interactions using precision atomic isotope shift spectroscopy. We develop a formalism to interpret linear King plots as bounds on new physics with minimal theory inputs. We focus only on bounding the new physics contributions that can be calculated independently of the standard model nuclear effects. We apply our method to existing Ca^{+} data and project its sensitivity to conjectured new bosons with spin-independent couplings to the electron and the neutron using narrow transitions in other atoms and ions, specifically, Sr and Yb. Future measurements are expected to improve the relative precision by 5 orders of magnitude, and they can potentially lead to an unprecedented sensitivity for bosons within the 0.3 to 10 MeV mass range.

Probing New Long-Range Interactions by Isotope Shift Spectroscopy

DOE PAGES

Berengut, Julian C.; Budker, Dmitry; Delaunay, Cédric; ...

2018-02-26

We explore a method to probe new long- and intermediate-range interactions using precision atomic isotope shift spectroscopy. We develop a formalism to interpret linear King plots as bounds on new physics with minimal theory inputs. We focus only on bounding the new physics contributions that can be calculated independently of the standard model nuclear effects. We apply our method to existing Ca + data and project its sensitivity to conjectured new bosons with spin-independent couplings to the electron and the neutron using narrow transitions in other atoms and ions, specifically, Sr and Yb. Future measurements are expected to improve themore » relative precision by 5 orders of magnitude, and they can potentially lead to an unprecedented sensitivity for bosons within the 0.3 to 10 MeV mass range.« less

Prehistoric earthquakes on the Caribbean-South American plate boundary, central range fault, Trinidad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prentice, C.S.; Weber, J.C.; Crosby, C.J.; Ragona, D.

2010-01-01

Recent geodetic studies suggest that the Central Range fault is the principal plate-boundary structure accommodating strike-slip motion between the Caribbean and South American plates. Our study shows that the fault forms a topographically prominent lineament in central Trinidad. Results from a paleoseismic investigation at a site where Holocene sediments have been deposited across the Central Range fault indicate that it ruptured the ground surface most recently between 2710 and 550 yr B.P. If the geodetic slip rate of 9-15 mm/yr is representative of Holocene slip rates, our paleoseismic data suggest that at least 4.9 m of potential slip may have accumulated on the fault and could be released during a future large earthquake (M > 7). ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Non-Solar Photovoltaics for Small Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.; Bailey, Sheila G.; Clark, Eric B.; Myers, Matthew G.; Piszazor, Michael F.; Murbach, Marcus S.

2012-01-01

NASA has missions planned to targets in the solar system ranging from the permanently shadowed craters of Mercury to the icy reaches of the Kuiper belt and beyond. In 2011, the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) requested the NASA Ames and Glenn Research Centers to assess the potential of small power supplies based on direct conversion of energy from radioisotope sources for future NASA missions; and in particular to assess whether alphavoltaic and betavoltaic power sources could be of potential benefit in small missions, as well as examining the use of miniaturized thermophotovoltaic power supplies. This paper summarizes the results of that assessment.

Carbon Nanotubes as Optical Sensors in Biomedicine.

PubMed

Farrera, Consol; Torres Andón, Fernando; Feliu, Neus

2017-11-28

Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) have become potential candidates for a wide range of medical applications including sensing, imaging, and drug delivery. Their photophysical properties (i.e., the capacity to emit in the near-infrared), excellent photostability, and fluorescence, which is highly sensitive to the local environment, make SWCNTs promising optical probes in biomedicine. In this Perspective, we discuss the existing strategies for and challenges of using carbon nanotubes for medical diagnosis based on intracellular sensing as well as discuss also their biocompatibility and degradability. Finally, we highlight the potential improvements of this nanotechnology and future directions in the field of carbon nanotubes for biomedical applications.

Computational predictions of zinc oxide hollow structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuoc, Vu Ngoc; Huan, Tran Doan; Thao, Nguyen Thi

2018-03-01

Nanoporous materials are emerging as potential candidates for a wide range of technological applications in environment, electronic, and optoelectronics, to name just a few. Within this active research area, experimental works are predominant while theoretical/computational prediction and study of these materials face some intrinsic challenges, one of them is how to predict porous structures. We propose a computationally and technically feasible approach for predicting zinc oxide structures with hollows at the nano scale. The designed zinc oxide hollow structures are studied with computations using the density functional tight binding and conventional density functional theory methods, revealing a variety of promising mechanical and electronic properties, which can potentially find future realistic applications.

Transfer Orbit Plasma Interaction Experiment (TROPIX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickman, Mark

Viewgraphs on the Transfer Orbit Plasma Interaction Experiment (TROPIX) are presented. Objectives of this research are (1) to map the charged particles in Earth's magnetosphere from LEO to GEO at high inclinations; (2) to measure plasma current collection and resulting shifts in vehicle electrical potential from LEO to GEO across range of orbital inclinations; (3) to study spacecraft interaction with plasma environment using solar electric propulsion (SEP) thrusters as plasma contactors; (4) to measure array degradation over mission duration; (5) to evaluate the potential of various microelectronics, spacecraft components, and instruments for future space missions; and (6) to demonstrate SEP technology applied to a flight vehicle. An overview of TROPIX is presented.

Cloudy Windows: What GCM Ensembles, Reanalyses and Observations Tell Us About Uncertainty in Greenland's Future Climate and Surface Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusch, D. B.

2016-12-01

Any analysis that wants to use a GCM-based scenario of future climate benefits from knowing how much uncertainty the GCM's inherent variability adds to the development of climate change predictions. This is extra relevant in the polar regions due to the potential of global impacts (e.g., sea level rise) from local (ice sheet) climate changes such as more frequent/intense surface melting. High-resolution, regional-scale models using GCMs for boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios inherit a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We investigate these uncertainties for the Greenland ice sheet using the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Recent simulations are skill-tested against the ERA-Interim reanalysis and AWS observations with results informing future scenarios. We focus on key variables influencing surface melting through decadal climatologies, nonlinear analysis of variability with self-organizing maps (SOMs), regional-scale modeling (Polar WRF), and simple melt models. Relative to the ensemble average, spatially averaged climatological July temperature anomalies over a Greenland ice-sheet/ocean domain are mostly between +/- 0.2 °C. The spatial average hides larger local anomalies of up to +/- 2 °C. The ensemble average itself is 2 °C cooler than ERA-Interim. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. For CESMLE, the SOM patterns summarize the variability of multiple realizations of climate. Changes in pattern frequency by ensemble member show the influence of initial conditions. For example, basic statistical analysis of pattern frequency yields interquartile ranges of 2-4% for individual patterns across the ensemble. In climate terms, this tells us about climate state variability through the range of the ensemble, a potentially significant source of melt-prediction uncertainty. SOMs can also capture the different trajectories of climate due to intramodel variability over time. Polar WRF provides higher resolution regional modeling with improved, polar-centric model physics. Simple melt models allow us to characterize impacts of the upstream uncertainties on estimates of surface melting.

Forest Attributes from Radar Interferometric Structure and its Fusion with Optical Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treuhaft, Robert N.; Law, Beverly E.; Asner, Gregory P.

2004-01-01

The possibility of global, three-dimensional remote sensing of forest structure with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) bears on important forest ecological processes, particularly the carbon cycle. InSAR supplements two-dimensional remote sensing with information in the vertical dimension. Its strengths in potential for global coverage complement those of lidar (light detecting and ranging), which has the potential for high-accuracy vertical profiles over small areas. InSAR derives its sensitivity to forest vertical structure from the differences in signals received by two, spatially separate radar receivers. Estimation of parameters describing vertical structure requires multiple-polarization, multiple-frequency, or multiple-baseline InSAR. Combining InSAR with complementary remote sensing techniques, such as hyperspectral optical imaging and lidar, can enhance vertical-structure estimates and consequent biophysical quantities of importance to ecologists, such as biomass. Future InSAR experiments will supplement recent airborne and spaceborne demonstrations, and together with inputs from ecologists regarding structure, they will suggest designs for future spaceborne strategies for measuring global vegetation structure.

Controls on Soil Organic Matter in Blue Carbon Ecosystems along the South Florida Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smoak, J. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Moyer, R. P.; Radabaugh, K.; Chambers, L. G.; Lagomasino, D.; Lynch, J.; Cahoon, D. R.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands store disproportionately large amounts of carbon due to high rates of net primary productivity and slow microbial degradation of organic matter in water-saturated soils. Wide spatial and temporal variability in plant communities and soil biogeochemistry necessitate location-specific quantification of carbon stocks to improve current wetland carbon inventories and future projections. We apply field measurements, remote sensing technology, and spatiotemporal models to quantify regional carbon storage and to model future spatial variability of carbon stocks in mangroves and coastal marshes in Southwest Florida. We examine soil carbon accumulation and accretion rates on time scales ranging from decadal to millennial to project responses to climate change, including variations in inundation and salinity. Once freshwater and oligohaline wetlands are exposed to increased duration and spatial extent of inundation and salinity from seawater, soil redox potential, soil respiration, and the intensification of osmotic stress to vegetation and the soil microbial community can affect the soil C balance potentially increasing rates of mineralization.

Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus.

PubMed

Burrows, Kate; Kinney, Patrick L

2016-04-22

The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.

Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus

PubMed Central

Burrows, Kate; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict. PMID:27110806

Spread of the Tiger: Global Risk of Invasion by the Mosquito Aedes albopictus

PubMed Central

BENEDICT, MARK Q.; LEVINE, REBECCA S.; HAWLEY, WILLIAM A.; LOUNIBOS, L. PHILIP

2008-01-01

Aedes albopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of eggs via the international trade in used tires. We use a genetic algorithm, Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP), to determine the ecological niche of Ae. albopictus and predict a global ecological risk map for the continued spread of the species. We combine this analysis with risk due to importation of tires from infested countries and their proximity to countries that have already been invaded to develop a list of countries most at risk for future introductions and establishments. Methods used here have potential for predicting risks of future invasions of vectors or pathogens. PMID:17417960

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

Climate Variability, Climate Change and Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glantz, Michael H.

2005-08-01

As we approach the end of the twentieth century, public and scientific attention is focusing increasingly on the detection and assessment of changes in our environment. This unique volume addresses the potential implications of global warming for fisheries and the societies which depend on them. Using a æforecasting by analogy' approach, which draws upon experiences from the recent past in coping with regional fluctuations in the abundance or availability of living marine resources, it is shown how we might be able to assess our ability to respond to the consequences of future environmental changes induced by a potential global warming. The book takes the form of a series of integrated case studies from around the globe, which are presented by an interdisciplinary group of leading researchers. This important and thought-provoking volume will be of interest to a wide range of scientists working in the fields of biology, marine and environmental science, climatology, economics and anthropology, as well as resource managers and policy makers concerned with the health and future of living marine resources.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

PubMed

McGuire, B

2010-05-28

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

High invasion potential of Hydrilla verticillata in the Americas predicted using ecological niche modeling combined with genetic data.

PubMed

Zhu, Jinning; Xu, Xuan; Tao, Qing; Yi, Panpan; Yu, Dan; Xu, Xinwei

2017-07-01

Ecological niche modeling is an effective tool to characterize the spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, and it is especially useful for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species. The widespread submerged plant Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) has an obvious phylogeographical pattern: Four genetic lineages occupy distinct regions in native range, and only one lineage invades the Americas. Here, we aimed to evaluate climatic niche conservatism of hydrilla in North America at the intraspecific level and explore its invasion potential in the Americas by comparing climatic niches in a phylogenetic context. Niche shift was found in the invasion process of hydrilla in North America, which is probably mainly attributed to high levels of somatic mutation. Dramatic changes in range expansion in the Americas were predicted in the situation of all four genetic lineages invading the Americas or future climatic changes, especially in South America; this suggests that there is a high invasion potential of hydrilla in the Americas. Our findings provide useful information for the management of hydrilla in the Americas and give an example of exploring intraspecific climatic niche to better understand species invasion.

Four faint T dwarfs from the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) Southern Stripe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Kuenley; Liu, Michael C.; Jiang, Linhua; Allers, Katelyn N.; Stark, Daniel P.; Bunker, Andrew; Fan, Xiaohui; Glazebrook, Karl; Dupuy, Trent J.

2008-03-01

We present the optical and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy of four faint T dwarfs newly discovered from the UKIDSS first data release. The sample, drawn from an imaged area of ~136 deg2 to a depth of Y = 19.9 (5σ, Vega), is located in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Southern Equatorial Stripe, a region of significant future deep imaging potential. We detail the selection and followup of these objects, three of which are spectroscopically confirmed brown dwarfs ranging from type T2.5 to T7.5, and one is photometrically identified as early T. Their magnitudes range from Y = 19.01 to 19.88 with derived distances from 34 to 98 pc, making these among the coldest and faintest brown dwarfs known. The T7.5 dwarf appears to be single based on 0.05-arcsec images from Keck laser guide star adaptive optics. The sample brings the total number of T dwarfs found or confirmed by UKIDSS data in this region to nine, and we discuss the projected numbers of dwarfs in the future survey data. We estimate that ~240 early and late T dwarfs are discoverable in the UKIDSS Large Area Survey (LAS) data, falling significantly short of published model projections and suggesting that initial mass functions and/or birth rates may be at the low end of possible models. Thus, deeper optical data have good potential to exploit the UKIDSS survey depth more fully, but may still find the potential Y dwarf sample to be extremely rare.

The Feasibility of Avoiding Future Climate Impacts: Results from the AVOID Programmes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, J. A.; Warren, R.; Arnell, N.; Buckle, S.

2014-12-01

The AVOID programme and its successor, AVOID2, have focused on answering three core questions: how do we characterise potentially dangerous climate change and impacts, which emissions pathways can avoid at least some of these impacts, and how feasible are the future reductions needed to significantly deviate from a business-as-usual future emissions pathway. The first AVOID project succeeded in providing the UK Government with evidence to inform its position on climate change. A key part of the work involved developing a range of global emissions pathways and estimating and understanding the corresponding global impacts. This made use of a combination of complex general circulation models, simple climate models, pattern-scaling and state-of-the art impacts models. The results characterise the range of avoidable impacts across the globe in several key sectors including river and coastal flooding, cooling and heating energy demand, crop productivity and aspects of biodiversity. The avoided impacts between a scenario compatible with a 4ºC global warming and one with a 2ºC global warming were found to be highly sector dependent and avoided fractions typically ranged between 20% and 70%. A further key aspect was characterising the magnitude of the uncertainty involved, which is found to be very large in some impact sectors although the avoided fraction appears a more robust metric. The AVOID2 programme began in 2014 and will provide results in the run up to the Paris CoP in 2015. This includes new post-IPCC 5th assessment evidence to inform the long-term climate goal, a more comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty ranges of feasible emission pathways compatible with the long-term goal and enhanced estimates of global impacts using the latest generation of impact models and scenarios.

Characterizing Future El Niño Impacts to the Lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, N. I.; Miller, W. P.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.

2015-12-01

Past El Niño events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the 1982-1983 event, resulted in one of the basin's wettest years on record. Looking at past events and the current forecasts, which indicate Pacific Ocean conditions could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter, it is no wonder that many water management agencies and their customers are expecting a relief in the southwestern United States (US) drought intensity as the probability of a strong El Niño becomes more significant. Despite the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a strong El Niño is not a guarantee for wet conditions in the Colorado River basin - as can be seen from the 2002 event in which basin conditions were one of the driest on record. There is a great need to understand the range of possible conditions that could be observed under an El Niño event to better inform southwestern US water management agencies so that they may make well-guided decisions regarding their most valuable resource - the Colorado River. This study builds upon past research based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climatology and hydrology projections and the analysis performed with singular variable decomposition (SVD) to identify climate models with high correlation between historical climate/hydrology in the CRB and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Past research methods were able to identify climate models which performed well using the SVD methodology. This current project seeks to analyze the well-performing climate models and identify future El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the resultant precipitation and temperature impacts in the lower CRB. This analysis will provide an objective, ensemble based outlook for potential climate change impacts under El Niño events.The results of the study can potentially assist lower CRB water management agencies in characterizing the range of future El Niño impacts, under climate change conditions. It is expected that this information could be beneficial in understanding the range of potential El Niño impacts and their effect on drought in the southwestern US.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery T., E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.a; Brown, Helen L., E-mail: h.brown@curtin.edu.a; Katscherian, Dianne, E-mail: Dianne.Katscherian@health.wa.gov.a

2011-04-15

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location.more » Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address the potential health impacts of climate change.« less

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

1998-01-01

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Radojevic, Milka; Wu, Xiaotian; Duvvuri, Venkata R; Leighton, Patrick A; Wu, Jianhong

2014-06-01

The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R0) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R0. Modeled R0 increases were compared with R0 ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. R0 for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971-2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R0 by factors (2-5 times in Canada and 1.5-2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R0 for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects.

Large-scale determinants of intestinal schistosomiasis and intermediate host snail distribution across Africa: does climate matter?

PubMed

Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope; Hürlimann, Eveline; Schur, Nadine; Saarnak, Christopher F L; Simoonga, Christopher; Mubita, Patricia; Kabatereine, Narcis B; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Rahbek, Carsten; Kristensen, Thomas K

2013-11-01

The geographical ranges of most species, including many infectious disease agents and their vectors and intermediate hosts, are assumed to be constrained by climatic tolerances, mainly temperature. It has been suggested that global warming will cause an expansion of the areas potentially suitable for infectious disease transmission. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is governed by a myriad of ecological, economic, evolutionary and social factors. Hence, a deeper understanding of the total disease system (pathogens, vectors and hosts) and its drivers is important for predicting responses to climate change. Here, we combine a growing degree day model for Schistosoma mansoni with species distribution models for the intermediate host snail (Biomphalaria spp.) to investigate large-scale environmental determinants of the distribution of the African S. mansoni-Biomphalaria system and potential impacts of climatic changes. Snail species distribution models included several combinations of climatic and habitat-related predictors; the latter divided into "natural" and "human-impacted" habitat variables to measure anthropogenic influence. The predictive performance of the combined snail-parasite model was evaluated against a comprehensive compilation of historical S. mansoni parasitological survey records, and then examined for two climate change scenarios of increasing severity for 2080. Future projections indicate that while the potential S. mansoni transmission area expands, the snail ranges are more likely to contract and/or move into cooler areas in the south and east. Importantly, we also note that even though climate per se matters, the impact of humans on habitat play a crucial role in determining the distribution of the intermediate host snails in Africa. Thus, a future contraction in the geographical range size of the intermediate host snails caused by climatic changes does not necessarily translate into a decrease or zero-sum change in human schistosomiasis prevalence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global decline in suitable habitat for Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis: the role of climate change.

PubMed

York, Emily M; Butler, Christopher J; Lord, Wayne D

2014-01-01

Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68-152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66-15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11-16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.

Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change.

PubMed

Murdock, C C; Sternberg, E D; Thomas, M B

2016-06-21

Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51-89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings.

A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

PubMed

Darby, Stephen E; Dunn, Frances E; Nicholls, Robert J; Rahman, Munsur; Riddy, Liam

2015-09-01

We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience of the delta to sea-level rise by giving greater potential for vertical accretion. However, these increased sediment fluxes may not be realised due to uncertainties in the monsoon related response to climate change or other human-induced changes in the catchment: this is a subject for further research.

Predicting species' range limits from functional traits for the tree flora of North America.

PubMed

Stahl, Ulrike; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-09-23

Using functional traits to explain species' range limits is a promising approach in functional biogeography. It replaces the idiosyncrasy of species-specific climate ranges with a generic trait-based predictive framework. In addition, it has the potential to shed light on specific filter mechanisms creating large-scale vegetation patterns. However, its application to a continental flora, spanning large climate gradients, has been hampered by a lack of trait data. Here, we explore whether five key plant functional traits (seed mass, wood density, specific leaf area (SLA), maximum height, and longevity of a tree)--indicative of life history, mechanical, and physiological adaptations--explain the climate ranges of 250 North American tree species distributed from the boreal to the subtropics. Although the relationship between traits and the median climate across a species range is weak, quantile regressions revealed strong effects on range limits. Wood density and seed mass were strongly related to the lower but not upper temperature range limits of species. Maximum height affects the species range limits in both dry and humid climates, whereas SLA and longevity do not show clear relationships. These results allow the definition and delineation of climatic "no-go areas" for North American tree species based on key traits. As some of these key traits serve as important parameters in recent vegetation models, the implementation of trait-based climatic constraints has the potential to predict both range shifts and ecosystem consequences on a more functional basis. Moreover, for future trait-based vegetation models our results provide a benchmark for model evaluation.

A review of the use of wear-resistant coatings in the cutting-tool industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salik, J.

1983-01-01

The main mechanisms involved in the wear of cutting tools are reviewed. Evaluation of the different coating properties required for the reduction of the different kinds of wear was also reviewed. The types of coatings and their ranges of applicability are presented and discussed in view of their properties. Various coating processes as well as their advantages and shortcomings are described. Potential future developments in the field of wear-resistant coatings are discussed.

Evaluation of the LIVE/DEAD BacLight Kit for Detection of Extremophilic Archaea and Visualization of Microorganisms in Environmental Hypersaline Samples

PubMed Central

Leuko, Stefan; Legat, Andrea; Fendrihan, Sergiu; Stan-Lotter, Helga

2004-01-01

Extremophilic archaea were stained with the LIVE/DEAD BacLight kit under conditions of high ionic strength and over a pH range of 2.0 to 9.3. The reliability of the kit was tested with haloarchaea following permeabilization of the cells. Microorganisms in hypersaline environmental samples were detectable with the kit, which suggests its potential application to future extraterrestrial halites. PMID:15528557

Enhanced Plasmonic Biosensors of Hybrid Gold Nanoparticle-Graphene Oxide-Based Label-Free Immunoassay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Nan-Fu; Chen, Chi-Chu; Yang, Cheng-Du; Kao, Yu-Sheng; Wu, Wei-Ren

2018-05-01

In this study, we propose a modified gold nanoparticle-graphene oxide sheet (AuNP-GO) nanocomposite to detect two different interactions between proteins and hybrid nanocomposites for use in biomedical applications. GO sheets have high bioaffinity, which facilitates the attachment of biomolecules to carboxyl groups and has led to its use in the development of sensing mechanisms. When GO sheets are decorated with AuNPs, they introduce localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) in the resonance energy transfer of spectral changes. Our results suggest a promising future for AuNP-GO-based label-free immunoassays to detect disease biomarkers and rapidly diagnose infectious diseases. The results showed the detection of antiBSA in 10 ng/ml of hCG non-specific interfering protein with dynamic responses ranging from 1.45 nM to 145 fM, and a LOD of 145 fM. Considering the wide range of potential applications of GO sheets as a host material for a variety of nanoparticles, the approach developed here may be beneficial for the future integration of nanoparticles with GO nanosheets for blood sensing. The excellent anti-interference characteristics allow for the use of the biosensor in clinical analysis and point-of-care testing (POCT) diagnostics of rapid immunoassay products, and it may also be a potential tool for the measurement of biomarkers in human serum.

Enhanced Plasmonic Biosensors of Hybrid Gold Nanoparticle-Graphene Oxide-Based Label-Free Immunoassay.

PubMed

Chiu, Nan-Fu; Chen, Chi-Chu; Yang, Cheng-Du; Kao, Yu-Sheng; Wu, Wei-Ren

2018-05-16

In this study, we propose a modified gold nanoparticle-graphene oxide sheet (AuNP-GO) nanocomposite to detect two different interactions between proteins and hybrid nanocomposites for use in biomedical applications. GO sheets have high bioaffinity, which facilitates the attachment of biomolecules to carboxyl groups and has led to its use in the development of sensing mechanisms. When GO sheets are decorated with AuNPs, they introduce localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) in the resonance energy transfer of spectral changes. Our results suggest a promising future for AuNP-GO-based label-free immunoassays to detect disease biomarkers and rapidly diagnose infectious diseases. The results showed the detection of antiBSA in 10 ng/ml of hCG non-specific interfering protein with dynamic responses ranging from 1.45 nM to 145 fM, and a LOD of 145 fM. Considering the wide range of potential applications of GO sheets as a host material for a variety of nanoparticles, the approach developed here may be beneficial for the future integration of nanoparticles with GO nanosheets for blood sensing. The excellent anti-interference characteristics allow for the use of the biosensor in clinical analysis and point-of-care testing (POCT) diagnostics of rapid immunoassay products, and it may also be a potential tool for the measurement of biomarkers in human serum.

Protease Inhibitors of Parasitic Flukes: Emerging Roles in Parasite Survival and Immune Defence.

PubMed

Ranasinghe, Shiwanthi L; McManus, Donald P

2017-05-01

Protease inhibitors play crucial roles in parasite development and survival, counteracting the potentially damaging immune responses of their vertebrate hosts. However, limited information is currently available on protease inhibitors from schistosomes and food-borne trematodes. Future characterization of these molecules is important not only to expand knowledge on parasitic fluke biology but also to determine whether they represent novel vaccine and/or drug targets. Moreover, protease inhibitors from flukes may represent lead compounds for the development of a new range of therapeutic agents against inflammatory disorders and cancer. This review discusses already identified protease inhibitors of fluke origin, emphasizing their biological function and their possible future development as new intervention targets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Silicon-Germanium Fast Packet Switch Developed for Communications Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quintana, Jorge A.

1999-01-01

Emerging multimedia applications and future satellite systems will require high-speed switching networks to accommodate high data-rate traffic among thousands of potential users. This will require advanced switching devices to enable communication between satellites. The NASA Lewis Research Center has been working closely with industry to develop a state-of-the-art fast packet switch (FPS) to fulfill this requirement. Recently, the Satellite Industry Task Force identified the need for high-capacity onboard processing switching components as one of the "grand challenges" for the satellite industry in the 21st century. In response to this challenge, future generations of onboard processing satellites will require low power and low mass components to enable transmission of services in the 100 gigabit (1011 bits) per second (Gbps) range.

Applications of Human Factors in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Margerum, Sarah

2008-01-01

The main question for human factors practitioners is to determine if the user population can be accommodated within a design. Given the wide range of variables feeding into a design, just one of which is human factors, oftentimes designers will have restrictions that may potentially impact the level of accommodation. This paper focuses on two case studies where there have been impacts at the design level that may be detrimental to the ability of the design to meet certain criteria. The studies use novel approaches to determine what, if any, changes in population accommodation levels have occurred and what factors are important when manipulating the design in the future. The results of these studies provide a backbone for future analyses when working with design considerations.

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becherer, Johannes; Hofstede, Jacobus; Gräwe, Ulf; Purkiani, Kaveh; Schulz, Elisabeth; Burchard, Hans

2018-01-01

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change. PMID:27768758

Vaccines 'on demand': science fiction or a future reality.

PubMed

Ulmer, Jeffrey B; Mansoura, Monique K; Geall, Andrew J

2015-02-01

Self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are being developed as a platform technology with potential to be used for a broad range of targets. The synthetic production methods for their manufacture, combined with the modern tools of bioinformatics and synthetic biology, enable these vaccines to be produced rapidly from an electronic gene sequence. Preclinical proof of concept has so far been achieved for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rabies, Ebola, cytomegalovirus, human immunodeficiency virus and malaria. This editorial highlights the key milestones in the discovery and development of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines, and reviews how they might be used as a rapid response platform. The paper points out how future improvements in RNA vector design and non-viral delivery may lead to decreases in effective dose and increases in production capacity. The prospects for non-viral delivery of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are very promising. Like other types of nucleic acid vaccines, these vaccines have the potential to draw on the positive attributes of live-attenuated vaccines while obviating many potential safety limitations. Hence, this approach could enable the concept of vaccines on demand as a rapid response to a real threat rather than the deployment of strategic stockpiles based on epidemiological predictions for possible threats.

Historical U.S. cropland areas and the potential for bioenergy production on abandoned croplands.

PubMed

Zumkehr, A; Campbell, J E

2013-04-16

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. While these impacts have been explored using global gridded maps of croplands, such maps are based on relatively coarse spatial data. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories for the conterminous U.S. with a land-use model to develop historical gridded cropland areas for the years 1850-2000 and year 2000 abandoned cropland maps. While the historical cropland maps are consistent with generally accepted land-use trends, our U.S. abandoned cropland estimates of 68 Mha are as much as 70% larger than previous gridded estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. Renewed cultivation on the subset of abandoned croplands that have not become forests or urban lands represents one approach to mitigating the future expansion of agriculture. Potential bioenergy production from these abandoned lands using a wide range of biomass yields and conversion efficiencies has an upper-limit of 5-30% of the current U.S. primary energy demand or 4-30% of the current U.S. liquid fuel demand.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

2014-01-01

Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

Treesearch

Kenneth L. Cole; Kirsten Ironside; Jon Eischeid; Gregg Garfin; Phillip B. Duffy; Chris Toney

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ~11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the...

Future developments in aeronautical satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Peter

1990-01-01

Very shortly aeronautical satellite communications will be introduced on a world wide basis. By the end of the year, voice communications (both to the cabin and cockpit) and packet data communications will be available to both airlines and executive aircraft. During the decade following the introduction of the system, there will be many enhancements and developments which will increase the range of applications, expand the potential number of users, and reduce costs. A number of ways in which the system is expected to evolve over this period are presented. Among the issues which are covered are the impact of spot beam satellites, spectrum and power conservation techniques, and the expanding range of user services.

Observations of the anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background by the FIRS, SK93, and MSAM-I experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kowitt, Matt; Cheng, Ed; Silverberg, Bob; Ganga, Ken; Page, Lyman; Jarosik, Norm; Netterfield, Barth; Wilkinson, Dave; Meyer, Stephan; Inman, Casey;

Ensembles of 21st Century Colorado River Flow Projections Exhibit Substantial Diversity in Response to Seasonal Hydroclimatic Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; Woodhouse, C. A.; McCabe, G. J., Jr.; Pederson, G. T.

2016-12-01

Approximately 40 million people depend on the Colorado River, and that number is likely to grow in the future, making the River's response to projected increases in temperature and possible changes in precipitation a critical societal issue. By far the most common way of approaching the problem is synthesize results obtained by forcing a hydrological model with a set of downscaled future climate scenarios. One weakness with this type of analysis is that full hydrologic model simulations can be computationally demanding, and so the number of potential climate futures is generally somewhat limited. Here we sidestep that issue by using a very large set of synthetic climate futures to drive a simple statistical model of water year flow at Lees Ferry. 62,500 climate series, comprising 500 iterations of 125 unique combinations of summer temperature changes ranging from 0 to +4°C and summer and winter precipitation changes ranging from -20 to +20% were input into the flow model. Without substantial temperature increases, significant increases in the occurrence of very low flows (<75%) were unlikely, even with sharp decreases in temperature. Conversely, increases in precipitation, could buffer the effect of summer temperature increases up to about 3°C on mean water year flows. While very simple models like this one are inappropriate for some questions, they do provide an effective way of prioritizing and framing more complex investigations, and facilitate conversations with stakeholders about research directions.

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Pandit, Shreejana

2018-01-01

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal. PMID:29360797

Constraining the range of Yukawa gravity interaction from S2 star orbits III: improvement expectations for graviton mass bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharov, A. F.; Jovanović, P.; Borka, D.; Borka Jovanović, V.

2018-04-01

Recently, the LIGO-Virgo collaboration discovered gravitational waves and in their first publication on the subject the authors also presented a graviton mass constraint as mg < 1.2 × 10‑22 eV [1] (see also more details in a complimentary paper [2]). In our previous papers we considered constraints on Yukawa gravity parameters [3] and on graviton mass from analysis of the trajectory of S2 star near the Galactic Center [4]. In the paper we analyze a potential to reduce upper bounds for graviton mass with future observational data on trajectories of bright stars near the Galactic Center. Since gravitational potentials are different for these two cases, expressions for relativistic advance for general relativity and Yukawa potential are different functions on eccentricity and semimajor axis, it gives an opportunity to improve current estimates of graviton mass with future observational facilities. In our considerations of an improvement potential for a graviton mass estimate we adopt a conservative strategy and assume that trajectories of bright stars and their apocenter advance will be described with general relativity expressions and it gives opportunities to improve graviton mass constraints. In contrast with our previous studies, where we present current constraints on parameters of Yukawa gravity [5] and graviton mass [6] from observations of S2 star, in the paper we express expectations to improve current constraints for graviton mass, assuming the GR predictions about apocenter shifts will be confirmed with future observations. We concluded that if future observations of bright star orbits during around fifty years will confirm GR predictions about apocenter shifts of bright star orbits it give an opportunity to constrain a graviton mass at a level around 5 × 10‑23 eV or slightly better than current estimates obtained with LIGO observations.

Data documenting the potential distribution of Aedes aegypti in the center of Veracruz, Mexico.

PubMed

Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Sandoval-Ruiz, César A; Mendoza-Palmero, Fredy S; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; Equihua, Miguel; Benítez, Griselda

2017-02-01

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "Establishment of Aedes aegypti (L.) in mountainous regions in Mexico: Increasing number of population at risk of mosquito-borne disease and future climate conditions" (M. Equihua, S. Ibáñez-Bernal, G. Benítez, I. Estrada-Contreras, C.A. Sandoval-Ruiz, F.S. Mendoza-Palmero, 2016) [1]. This article provides presence records in shapefile format used to generate maps of potential distribution of Aedes aegypti with different climate change scenarios as well as each of the maps obtained in raster format. In addition, tables with values of potential distribution of the vector as well as the average values of probability of presence including data of the mosquito incidence along the altitudinal range.

Revenue Potential for Inpatient IR Consultation Services: A Financial Model.

PubMed

Misono, Alexander S; Mueller, Peter R; Hirsch, Joshua A; Sheridan, Robert M; Siddiqi, Assad U; Liu, Raymond W

2016-05-01

Interventional radiology (IR) has historically failed to fully capture the value of evaluation and management services in the inpatient setting. Understanding financial benefits of a formally incorporated billing discipline may yield meaningful insights for interventional practices. A revenue modeling tool was created deploying standard financial modeling techniques, including sensitivity and scenario analyses. Sensitivity analysis calculates revenue fluctuation related to dynamic adjustment of discrete variables. In scenario analysis, possible future scenarios as well as revenue potential of different-size clinical practices are modeled. Assuming a hypothetical inpatient IR consultation service with a daily patient census of 35 patients and two new consults per day, the model estimates annual charges of $2.3 million and collected revenue of $390,000. Revenues are most sensitive to provider billing documentation rates and patient volume. A range of realistic scenarios-from cautious to optimistic-results in a range of annual charges of $1.8 million to $2.7 million and a collected revenue range of $241,000 to $601,000. Even a small practice with a daily patient census of 5 and 0.20 new consults per day may expect annual charges of $320,000 and collected revenue of $55,000. A financial revenue modeling tool is a powerful adjunct in understanding economics of an inpatient IR consultation service. Sensitivity and scenario analyses demonstrate a wide range of revenue potential and uncover levers for financial optimization. Copyright © 2016 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive and Behavioral Resilience Among Young Gay and Bisexual Men Living with HIV.

PubMed

Hussen, Sophia A; Harper, Gary W; Rodgers, Caryn R R; van den Berg, Jacob J; Dowshen, Nadia; Hightow-Weidman, Lisa B

2017-08-01

HIV/AIDS disproportionately affects young gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (Y-GBMSM). Resilience remains understudied among Y-GBMSM living with HIV, but represents a potentially important framework for improving HIV-related outcomes in this population. We sought to explore cognitive and behavioral dimensions of resilience and their correlates among Y-GBMSM to gain insights to inform future interventions. Our study sample consisted of 200 Y-GBMSM living with HIV enrolled in a multisite study of the Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions (ATN). Participants completed a one-time, self-administered structured questionnaire, including validated scales capturing a range of cognitive, behavioral, demographic, and psychosocial data. Utilizing these data, we examined cognitive and behavioral dimensions of resilience and their potential psychosocial correlates using linear regression modeling. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that education, stigma, social support, ethnic identity, internalized homonegativity, and behavioral resilience were statistically significant predictors of cognitive resilience (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.678). Social support satisfaction and cognitive resilience were significant predictors of behavioral resilience (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.141). Our findings point to potential strategies for incorporating resilience-promoting features into future interventions to support Y-GBMSM living with HIV. Specifically, strengths-based interventions in this population should seek to enhance social support, promote positive identity development, and encourage education. Future research can also seek to utilize and refine our measures of resilience among youth.

Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

2011-01-01

More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

Online canteens: awareness, use, barriers to use, and the acceptability of potential online strategies to improve public health nutrition in primary schools.

PubMed

Wyse, Rebecca; Yoong, Sze Lin; Dodds, Pennie; Campbell, Libby; Delaney, Tessa; Nathan, Nicole; Janssen, Lisa; Reilly, Kathryn; Sutherland, Rachel; Wiggers, John; Wolfenden, Luke

2017-03-01

Issue addressed This study of primary school principals assessed the awareness, use, barriers to use and acceptability of online canteens. Methods A telephone survey of 123 primary school principals within the Hunter New England Region of New South Wales, Australia was conducted from September 2014 to November 2014. Results Fifty-six percent of principals were aware of the existence of online canteens, with 8% having implemented such a system, and 38% likely to do so in the future. Medium/large schools were more likely to be aware of or to use online canteens, however there were no differences in awareness or use in relation to school rurality or socioeconomic advantage. Principals cited parent internet access as the most commonly identified perceived barrier to online canteen use, and the majority of principals (71-93%) agreed that it would be acceptable to implement a range of consumer behaviour strategies via an online canteen. Conclusions Study findings suggest that despite relatively low levels of current use, online canteens have the potential to reach a large proportion of school communities in the future, across geographical and socioeconomic divides, and that the nutrition interventions which they have the capacity to deliver are considered acceptable to school principals. So what? Online canteens may represent an opportunity to deliver nutrition interventions to school communities. Future research should examine the feasibility and potential effectiveness of interventions delivered via this modality.

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel, Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems.

PubMed

Inoue, Kentaro; Berg, David J

2017-01-01

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream-dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward-time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater-ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream-dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How climate change might influence the potential distribution of weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens)?

PubMed

Padalia, Hitendra; Srivastava, Vivek; Kushwaha, S P S

2015-04-01

Invasive species and climate change are considered as the most serious global environmental threats. In this study, we investigated the influence of projected global climate change on the potential distribution of one of the world's most successful invader weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit.). We used spatial data on 20 environmental variables at a grid resolution of 5 km, and 564 presence records of bushmint from its native and introduced range. The climatic profiles of the native and invaded sites were analyzed in a multi-variate space in order to examine the differences in the position of climatic niches. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution of bushmint using presence records from entire range (invaded and native) along with 14 eco-physiologically relevant predictor variables. Subsequently, the trained MaxEnt model was fed with Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) climate projections to predict potential distribution of bushmint by the year 2050 under A2a and B2a emission scenarios. MaxEnt predictions were very accurate with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.95. The results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated that climatic niche of bushmint on the invaded sites is not entirely similar to its climatic niche in the native range. A vast area spread between 34 ° 02' north and 28 ° 18' south latitudes in tropics was predicted climatically suitable for bushmint. West and middle Africa, tropical southeast Asia, and northern Australia were predicted at high invasion risk. Study indicates enlargement, retreat, or shift across bushmint's invasion range under the influence of climate change. Globally, bushmint's potential distribution might shrink in future with more shrinkage for A2a scenario than B2a. The study outcome has immense potential for undertaking effective preventive/control measures and long-term management strategies for regions/countries, which are at higher risk of bushmint's invasion.

THE ECONOMICS OF REPROCESSING vs DIRECT DISPOSAL OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matthew Bunn; Steve Fetter; John P. Holdren

This report assesses the economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The breakeven uranium price at which reprocessing spent nuclear fuel from existing light-water reactors (LWRs) and recycling the resulting plutonium and uranium in LWRs would become economic is assessed, using central estimates of the costs of different elements of the nuclear fuel cycle (and other fuel cycle input parameters), for a wide range of range of potential reprocessing prices. Sensitivity analysis is performed, showing that the conclusions reached are robust across a wide range of input parameters. The contribution of direct disposal or reprocessing and recyclingmore » to electricity cost is also assessed. The choice of particular central estimates and ranges for the input parameters of the fuel cycle model is justified through a review of the relevant literature. The impact of different fuel cycle approaches on the volume needed for geologic repositories is briefly discussed, as are the issues surrounding the possibility of performing separations and transmutation on spent nuclear fuel to reduce the need for additional repositories. A similar analysis is then performed of the breakeven uranium price at which deploying fast neutron breeder reactors would become competitive compared with a once-through fuel cycle in LWRs, for a range of possible differences in capital cost between LWRs and fast neutron reactors. Sensitivity analysis is again provided, as are an analysis of the contribution to electricity cost, and a justification of the choices of central estimates and ranges for the input parameters. The equations used in the economic model are derived and explained in an appendix. Another appendix assesses the quantities of uranium likely to be recoverable worldwide in the future at a range of different possible future prices.« less

Streamflow response to future land-cover change at a headwaters catchment spanning the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, T. B.; Vukomanovic, J.; Bourgeron, P.; Molotch, N. P.

2017-12-01

Land-cover change at the alpine-subalpine interface has the potential to change the water balance of mountainous, snow-dominated catchments due to the influence of vegetation on blowing snow, effective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and other processes. Understanding how land-cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce a disproportionate amount of runoff relative to their land area. We coupled the LANdscape DIsturbance and Succession (LANDIS-II) model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to simulate land-cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 6.6 km­2 headwater catchment that spans the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures of air temperature warming (+4 °C/century) to 2100: a) increased precipitation (+15%, MP) and b) decreased precipitation (-15%, LP). As the LANDIS-II model simulates forest succession in a stochastic manner, we use three LANDIS-II model runs each for the MP and LP future forcing conditions. For both MP and LP, the RHESSys forcing data set was updated to reflect the changes in precipitation and temperature used to generate the land-cover futures. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Somewhat surprisingly, this increase in forest cover led to mean increases in streamflow production of 9% for MP and 3% for LP in 2050. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 15% and 6% for the MP and LP scenarios, respectively. This is likely due to increases in effective precipitation as the catchment forested and blowing snow decreased. Indeed, catchment effective precipitation increased from 94% in 2000 to 97% and 99% in 2050 and 2100, respectively, for both MP and LP conditions. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on blowing snow and effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land-cover change is of critical importance due to the potential water resources impacts in downstream regions.

Tea, talk and technology: patient and public involvement to improve connected health 'wearables' research in dementia.

PubMed

Hassan, Lamiece; Swarbrick, Caroline; Sanders, Caroline; Parker, Angela; Machin, Matt; Tully, Mary P; Ainsworth, John

2017-01-01

There are a growing number of mobile phones, watches and electronic devices which can be worn on the body to track aspects of health and well-being, such as daily steps, sleep and exercise. Dementia researchers think that these devices could potentially be used as part of future research projects, for example to help spot changes in daily activity that may signal the early symptoms of dementia. We asked a range of older people, including people living with dementia and their carers, to participate in interactive discussions about how future participants might find using these devices as part of research projects. We also invited volunteers to borrow a range of devices to test at home, giving them further insights. Discussions revealed that people were generally supportive of this type of research, provided they gave informed consent and that devices were discreet, comfortable and easy to use. They also valued technical support and regular feedback on study progress to encourage ongoing participation. These findings were used to develop a pool of devices for researchers, with computer software and written guidance to help plan, design and support studies. Our work shows that when given the right opportunities, people who are affected by dementia can provide valuable insights that can enhance the design, delivery and quality of future research. Background Increasingly, researchers are recognising the potential for connected health devices, including smartphones and smartwatches, to generate high resolution data about patterns of daily activity and health outcomes. One aim of the Dementias Platform UK (DPUK) project is to provide researchers with a secure means to collect, collate and link data generated by such devices, thereby accelerating this type of research in the field of dementia. We aimed to involve members of the public in discussions about the acceptability and feasibility of different devices and research designs to inform the development of a device pool, software platform and written guidance to support future studies. Methods Over 30 people attended a series of interactive workshops, drop-in sessions and meetings in Greater Manchester. This included people living with dementia and cognitive impairments, carers and people without memory problems. Discussions were tailored to suit different audiences and focused on the feasibility and acceptability of a range of different wearable devices and research designs. We also invited volunteers to borrow a device to test at home, enabling further insights from hands-on interactions with devices. Results Discussions revealed that people were supportive of connected health dementia research in principle, provided they gave informed consent and that devices were discreet, comfortable and easy to use. Moreover, they recommended technical support and regular feedback on study progress to encourage ongoing participation. Conclusion By using a range of discussion-based and practical activities, we found it was feasible to involve people affected by dementia and use their insights to shape the development of a software platform and device pool to support future connected health dementia research. We recommend that researchers planning such studies in future pay adequate attention to designing suitable participant information, technical support and mechanisms of providing study progress updates to support sustained engagement from participants.

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

2018-04-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3–4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different scenarios when quantifying available surface water yields and the potential for reservoir expansion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klaiman, Shachar; Gilary, Ido; Moiseyev, Nimrod

Analytical expressions for the resonances of the long-range potential (LRP), V(r)=a/r-b/r{sup 2}, as a function of the Hamiltonian parameters were derived by Doolen a long time ago [Int. J. Quant. Chem. 14, 523 (1979)]. Here we show that converged numerical results are obtained by applying the shifted complex scaling and the smooth-exterior scaling (SES) methods rather than the usual complex coordinate method (i.e., complex scaling). The narrow and broad shape-type resonances are shown to be localized inside or over the potential barrier and not inside the potential well. Therefore, the resonances for Doolen LRP's are not associated with the tunnelingmore » through the potential barrier as one might expect. The fact that the SES provides a universal reflection-free absorbing potential is, in particular, important in view of future applications. In particular, it is most convenient to calculate the molecular autoionizing resonances by adding one-electron complex absorbing potentials into the codes of the available quantum molecular electronic packages.« less

Testing the sensitivity of snowpack to climatic change in a large physiographically diverse watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, R. J.; Byrne, J. M.; Kienzle, S. W.; Sauchyn, D.

2009-12-01

Snowpack in mountain watersheds provide a large portion of fresh water for many human and ecosystem function. Given the sensitivity of snow processes to temperature, it is likely that available water from snowpack will be reduced under future climate warming. It is important to understand how mountain environments will respond to changes in climate in order to properly manage water future resources. In order to assess potential changes in mountain snowpack and subsequent effects on water supply, we use a combination of hydrometeorological and general circulation models (GCMs). This work describes the application of the GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) spatial hydrometeorological model in simulating potential future changes in snowpack for the North Saskatchewan River watershed, Alberta. Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River watershed supplies fresh water for over one million people and supports a wide range of ecosystem processes. To assess how snowpack may change in the watershed, scenarios from five GCMs are applied by perturbing the 1961-90 time series with mean changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99 periods. This study demonstrates that snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River watershed is highly susceptible to climate change and adaptive management strategies should be implemented to ensure sustainable water resources in the region.

Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Klein, J.; Archibald, J. A.; Walter, T.

2012-12-01

The water cycle in semiarid environments is intimately connected to plant-water interactions making these regions sensitive to both future climatic changes and landuse alterations. This study explores the sensitivity of water resource availability from a Mediterranean perspective using the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) in Costa Navarino, Greece as a large-scale laboratory for developing and testing the potential resource impacts of various landuse/climatic trajectories. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration were combined with Penman-Monteith estimates to compare water vapor flux variability across the gradient of current management conditions found within the NEO landscape. These range from native, non-managed vegetation to historic, traditionally managed agriculture to modern, actively managed recreational lands. These management conditions greatly impact the vertical flux of water vapor in this semiarid landscape. Our evapotranspiration estimates were placed into a process-based modeling framework to characterize the current state of regional water resource availability and simulate future trajectories (and the associated uncertainties) in response to landuse/climatic changes. This region is quite sensitive with regards to water cycle modifications due to the anthropogenic redistribution of water within and across the landscape. Such sensitivity typifies that expected for much of the Mediterranean region, highlighting the NEO as a potential key location for future observation and investigation.

Overview of NASA Technology Development for In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linne, Diane L.; Sanders, Gerald B.; Starr, Stanley O.; Eisenman, David J.; Suzuki, Nantel H.; Anderson, Molly S.; O'Malley, Terrence F.; Araghi, Koorosh R.

2017-01-01

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) encompasses a broad range of systems that enable the production and use of extraterrestrial resources in support of future exploration missions. It has the potential to greatly reduce the dependency on resources transported from Earth (e.g., propellants, life support consumables), thereby significantly improving the ability to conduct future missions. Recognizing the critical importance of ISRU for the future, NASA is currently conducting technology development projects in two of its four mission directorates. The Advanced Exploration Systems Division in the Agency's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate has initiated a new project for ISRU Technology focused on component, subsystem, and system maturation in the areas of water volatiles resource acquisition, and water volatiles and atmospheric processing into propellants and other consumable products. The Space Technology Mission Directorate is supporting development of ISRU component technologies in the areas of Mars atmosphere acquisition, including dust management, and oxygen production from Mars atmosphere for propellant and life support consumables. Together, these two coordinated projects are working towards a common goal of demonstrating ISRU technology and systems in preparation for future flight applications.

The role of expectations, hype and ethics in neuroimaging and neuromodulation futures

PubMed Central

Rusconi, Elena; Mitchener-Nissen, Timothy

2014-01-01

The production of expectations or future-goals for the development of techniques which “read” and modulate brain function, represent an important practical tool for neuroscientists. These visions-of-the-future assist scientists by providing focus for both individual and cross-disciplinary research programs; they encourage the development of new industrial sectors, are used to justify the allocation of government resources and funding, and via the media can help capture the imagination and support of the public. However, such expectations need to be tempered by reality. Over-hyping brain imaging and modulation will lead to disappointment; disappointment that in turn can undermine its potential. Similarly, if neuroscientists focus their attention narrowly on the science without concomitant consideration of its future ethical, legal and social implications, then their expectations may remain unrealized. To develop these arguments herein we introduce the theoretical concept of expectations and the practical consequences of expectations. We contextualize these reflections by referring to brain imaging and modulation studies on deception, which encompass the measurement-suppression-augmentation range. PMID:25400557

Identification of potential or preclinical cognitive impairment and the implications of sophisticated screening with biomarkers and cognitive testing: does it really matter?

PubMed

Gordon, Michael

2013-01-01

The last decade has seen an enormous growth in the interest in the recognition of and intervention in those diagnosed and living with the whole range of cognitive impairment and frank dementia. In the western world, the recognition of the impact on patients, families, health care systems, and societies that dementia poses has led to great efforts to help define the indicators for current and future dementia with the intention to treat those already afflicted even with the primarily symptomatic medications that exist and to recognize those at future risk with the hope of providing counselling to forestall its future development. The idea of "early diagnosis" appears at first glance to be attractive for the purposes of future planning and research studies, but it is not clear what the benefits and risks might be if screening processes define people at risk when beneficial interventions might not yet be determined. The ethical as well as financial implications must be explored and defined before implementation of such screening becomes a normal standard of practice.

Membrane technology for the future treatment of paper mill effluents: chances and challenges of further system closure.

PubMed

Simstich, B; Oeller, H-J

2010-01-01

The pressure on the European paper industry to further close its water circuits has increased significantly during the past decade. Since the technologies of the past can no longer meet the requirements of the future, new water treatment methods have become necessary. A constant rise in the interest in membrane technology expressed by the European paper industry confirms that in the future this method will evolve into a key technology for continued water savings. The publication provides an overview of current and future applications of membrane plants in the European paper industry. A range of technologies is briefly presented together with their advantages and drawbacks, and the economic potential of membrane use is discussed. Among other topics, the authors take a look at the utilization of membrane filtration for treating internal circulation water, partial flows containing coating colours, and biologically treated effluents. The technologies addressed include ultrafiltration, nanofiltration and membrane bioreactor technology. Possible recovery and treatment routes for the concentrates produced by the nanofiltration of biologically treated effluents are examined and evaluated.

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

PubMed

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.

Hotter nests produce hatchling lizards with lower thermal tolerance.

PubMed

Dayananda, Buddhi; Murray, Brad R; Webb, Jonathan K

2017-06-15

In many regions, the frequency and duration of summer heatwaves is predicted to increase in future. Hotter summers could result in higher temperatures inside lizard nests, potentially exposing embryos to thermally stressful conditions during development. Potentially, developmentally plastic shifts in thermal tolerance could allow lizards to adapt to climate warming. To determine how higher nest temperatures affect the thermal tolerance of hatchling geckos, we incubated eggs of the rock-dwelling velvet gecko, Amalosia lesueurii , at two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current nest temperatures (mean 23.2°C, range 10-33°C, 'cold') and future nest temperatures (mean 27.0°C, range 14-37°C, 'hot'). Hatchlings from the hot incubation group hatched 27 days earlier and had a lower critical thermal maximum (CT max 38.7°C) and a higher critical thermal minimum (CT min 6.2°C) than hatchlings from cold incubation group (40.2 and 5.7°C, respectively). In the field, hatchlings typically settle under rocks near communal nests. During the hatching period, rock temperatures ranged from 13 to 59°C, and regularly exceeded the CT max of both hot- and cold-incubated hatchlings. Because rock temperatures were so high, the heat tolerance of lizards had little effect on their ability to exploit rocks as retreat sites. Instead, the timing of hatching dictated whether lizards could exploit rocks as retreat sites; that is, cold-incubated lizards that hatched later encountered less thermally stressful environments than earlier hatching hot-incubated lizards. In conclusion, we found no evidence that CT max can shift upwards in response to higher incubation temperatures, suggesting that hotter summers may increase the vulnerability of lizards to climate warming. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

PubMed Central

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

Potential utility of future satellite magnetic field data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The requirements for a program of geomagnetic field studies are examined which will satisfy a wide range of user needs in the interim period between now and the time at which data from the Geopotential Research Mission (GRM) becomes available, and the long term needs for NASA's program in this area are considered. An overview of the subject, a justification for the recommended activities in the near term and long term, and a summary of the recommendations reached by the contributors is included.

The legacy of nanotechnology: revolution and prospects in neurosurgery.

PubMed

Khawaja, Ayaz Mahmood

2011-01-01

Nanotechnology has been an ever-growing field since the discovery of carbon fullerenes, and is being assimilated progressively into a variety of other disciplines including medical science. The association with neurosurgery had initially been less well characterized compared to other organ systems, but has recently offered promising future potential for a wide range of utilities including new therapeutic options for Glioblastoma Multiforme, neurprotection against oxidative stress, nerve nanorepair, nanodiagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, nanoimaging with nanoparticles and quantum dots, nanomanipulation of CNS with surgical nanobots, and nanoneuromodulation with nanofibres & nanowires. This article examines such potentials as well as others, of the utility of nanotechnology in Neurosurgery. Copyright © 2011 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contributions of immunoaffinity chromatography to deep proteome profiling of human biofluids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Chaochao; Duan, Jicheng; Liu, Tao

2016-05-01

Human biofluids, especially blood plasma or serum, hold great potential as the sources of potential biomarkers for various diseases; however, the enormous dynamic range of protein concentrations in biofluids represents a significant analytical challenge to detect promising low-abundance protein biomarkers. Over the last decade, various immunoaffinity chromatographic methods have been developed and routinely applied for separating low-abundance proteins from the high and moderate-abundance proteins, thus enabling more effective detection of low-abundance proteins. Herein, we review the advances of immunoaffinity separation methods and their contributions to the proteomics applications of different human biofluids. The limitations and future perspective of immunoaffinity separationmore » methods are also discussed.« less

Stem cells.

PubMed

Behr, Björn; Ko, Sae Hee; Wong, Victor W; Gurtner, Geoffrey C; Longaker, Michael T

2010-10-01

Stem cells are self-renewing cells capable of differentiating into multiple cell lines and are classified according to their origin and their ability to differentiate. Enormous potential exists in use of stem cells for regenerative medicine. To produce effective stem cell-based treatments for a range of diseases, an improved understanding of stem cell biology and better control over stem cell fate are necessary. In addition, the barriers to clinical translation, such as potential oncologic properties of stem cells, need to be addressed. With renewed government support and continued refinement of current stem cell methodologies, the future of stem cell research is exciting and promises to provide novel reconstructive options for patients and surgeons limited by traditional paradigms.

Interdisciplinary training to build an informatics workforce for precision medicine

PubMed Central

Williams, Marc S.; Ritchie, Marylyn D.; Payne, Philip R.O.

2015-01-01

The proposed Precision Medicine Initiative has the potential to transform medical care in the future through a shift from interventions based on evidence from population studies and empiric response to ones that account for a range of individual factors that more reliably predict response and outcomes for the patient. Many things are needed to realize this vision, but one of the most critical is an informatics workforce that has broad interdisciplinary training in basic science, applied research and clinical implementation. Current approaches to informatics training do not support this requirement. We present a collaborative model of training that has the potential to produce a workforce prepared for the challenges of implementing precision medicine. PMID:27054076

Transdisciplinary translational behavioral (TDTB) research: opportunities, barriers, and innovations.

PubMed

Czajkowski, Susan M; Lynch, Minda R; Hall, Kara L; Stipelman, Brooke A; Haverkos, Lynne; Perl, Harold; Scott, Marcia S; Shirley, Mariela C

2016-03-01

The translation of basic behavioral science discoveries into practical strategies represents a promising approach to developing more effective preventive interventions to improve health. Since translational research inevitably involves making use of diverse perspectives from multiple disciplines, it is best conducted as a transdisciplinary enterprise. In this paper, we discuss current strategies used by NIH to support transdisciplinary translational behavioral (TDTB) research, summarize successful efforts, and highlight challenges encountered in conducting such work (ranging from conceptual to organizational to methodological). Using examples from NIH-funded projects we illustrate the potential benefits of, and barriers to, pursuing this type of research and discuss next steps and potential future directions for NIH-supported TDTB research.

Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century Under five Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ironside, K. E.; Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Shaw, J. D.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species (Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Evaluating the Connectivity of a Protected Areas' Network under the Prism of Global Change: The Efficiency of the European Natura 2000 Network for Four Birds of Prey

PubMed Central

Mazaris, Antonios D.; Papanikolaou, Alexandra D.; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Kallimanis, Athanasios S.; Jiguet, Frédéric; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Pantis, John D.

2013-01-01

Climate and land use changes are major threats to biodiversity. To preserve biodiversity, networks of protected areas have been established worldwide, like the Natura 2000 network across the European Union (EU). Currently, this reserve network consists of more than 26000 sites covering more than 17% of EU terrestrial territory. Its efficiency to mitigate the detrimental effects of land use and climate change remains an open research question. Here, we examined the potential current and future geographical ranges of four birds of prey under scenarios of both land use and climate changes. By using graph theory, we examined how the current Natura 2000 network will perform in regard to the conservation of these species. This approach determines the importance of a site in regard to the total network and its connectivity. We found that sites becoming unsuitable due to climate change are not a random sample of the network, but are less connected and contribute less to the overall connectivity than the average site and thus their loss does not disrupt the full network. Hence, the connectivity of the remaining network changed only slightly from present day conditions. Our findings highlight the need to establish species-specific management plans with flexible conservation strategies ensuring protection under potential future range expansions. Aquila pomarina is predicted to disappear from the southern part of its range and to become restricted to northeastern Europe. Gyps fulvus, Aquila chrysaetos, and Neophron percnopterus are predicted to locally lose some suitable sites; hence, some isolated small populations may become extinct. However, their geographical range and metapopulation structure will remain relatively unaffected throughout Europe. These species would benefit more from an improved habitat quality and management of the existing network of protected areas than from increased connectivity or assisted migration. PMID:23527237

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Jason A.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.

2017-01-01

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Intraoral scanning systems - a current overview.

PubMed

Zimmermann, M; Mehl, A; Mörmann, W H; Reich, S

2015-01-01

There is no doubt today about the possibilities and potential of digital impression-taking with the aid of intraoral optical impression systems, and the past few years have seen a considerable increase in the range of optical intraoral scanners available on the market. On the strength of numerous innovations and a wider range of indications in orthodontics and implantology, intraoral scanning systems appear to be a highly promising development for the future. Digital impression-taking with intraoral scanners has already shown itself in some respects to be clearly superior to conventional impression- taking. Particularly worthy of mention is the versatile integration of digital impressions into diagnostic and treatment concepts to provide a customizable healthcare solution for the patient. It remains exciting to look forward to future developments that will allow us to observe digital impression-taking--as with other digital applications already established in everyday life--becoming firmly established in the routine of dentistry and dental technology. This article presents an overview of the benefits and limitations of digital impression-taking using intraoral scanning systems, and includes a summary of all the relevant intraoral scanners available on the market at present.

Future mission opportunities and requirements for advanced space photovoltaic energy conversion technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flood, Dennis J.

1990-01-01

The variety of potential future missions under consideration by NASA will impose a broad range of requirements on space solar arrays, and mandates the development of new solar cells which can offer a wide range of capabilities to mission planners. Major advances in performance have recently been achieved at several laboratories in a variety of solar cell types. Many of those recent advances are reviewed, the areas are examined where possible improvements are yet to be made, and the requirements are discussed that must be met by advanced solar cell if they are to be used in space. The solar cells of interest include single and multiple junction cells which are fabricated from single crystal, polycrystalline and amorphous materials. Single crystal cells on foreign substrates, thin film single crystal cells on superstrates, and multiple junction cells which are either mechanically stacked, monolithically grown, or hybrid structures incorporating both techniques are discussed. Advanced concentrator array technology for space applications is described, and the status of thin film, flexible solar array blanket technology is reported.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

A study on the correlation between soil radon potential and average indoor radon potential in Canadian cities.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Ford, Ken L

2017-01-01

Exposure to indoor radon is identified as the main source of natural radiation exposure to the population. Since radon in homes originates mainly from soil gas radon, it is of public interest to study the correlation between radon in soil and radon indoors in different geographic locations. From 2007 to 2010, a total of 1070 sites were surveyed for soil gas radon and soil permeability. Among the sites surveyed, 430 sites were in 14 cities where indoor radon information is available from residential radon and thoron surveys conducted in recent years. It is observed that indoor radon potential (percentage of homes above 200 Bq m -3 ; range from 1.5% to 42%) correlates reasonably well with soil radon potential (SRP: an index proportional to soil gas radon concentration and soil permeability; average SRP ranged from 8 to 26). In five cities where in-situ soil permeability was measured at more than 20 sites, a strong correlation (R 2  = 0.68 for linear regression and R 2  = 0.81 for non-linear regression) was observed between indoor radon potential and soil radon potential. This summary report shows that soil gas radon measurement is a practical and useful predictor of indoor radon potential in a geographic area, and may be useful for making decisions around prioritizing activities to manage population exposure and future land-use planning. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brink, Kevin W.; Jacobi, James D.; Loh, Rhonda; Price, Jonathan; Fortini, Lucas B.

2018-06-05

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate.The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future.We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Application of the Convolution Formalism to the Ocean Tide Potential: Results from the Gravity and Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desai, S. D.; Yuan, D. -N.

2006-01-01

A computationally efficient approach to reducing omission errors in ocean tide potential models is derived and evaluated using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Ocean tide height models are usually explicitly available at a few frequencies, and a smooth unit response is assumed to infer the response across the tidal spectrum. The convolution formalism of Munk and Cartwright (1966) models this response function with a Fourier series. This allows the total ocean tide height, and therefore the total ocean tide potential, to be modeled as a weighted sum of past, present, and future values of the tide-generating potential. Previous applications of the convolution formalism have usually been limited to tide height models, but we extend it to ocean tide potential models. We use luni-solar ephemerides to derive the required tide-generating potential so that the complete spectrum of the ocean tide potential is efficiently represented. In contrast, the traditionally adopted harmonic model of the ocean tide potential requires the explicit sum of the contributions from individual tidal frequencies. It is therefore subject to omission errors from neglected frequencies and is computationally more intensive. Intersatellite range rate data from the GRACE mission are used to compare convolution and harmonic models of the ocean tide potential. The monthly range rate residual variance is smaller by 4-5%, and the daily residual variance is smaller by as much as 15% when using the convolution model than when using a harmonic model that is defined by twice the number of parameters.

32 CFR 644.523 - Restricting future of artillery and other ranges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... ranges. Experience indicates that, on ranges where high explosive projectiles have been fired or dropped... 32 National Defense 4 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Restricting future of artillery and other ranges... concentration of fire, and the properties of these projectiles are such that many duds are deeply buried. Depth...

32 CFR 644.523 - Restricting future of artillery and other ranges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... ranges. Experience indicates that, on ranges where high explosive projectiles have been fired or dropped... 32 National Defense 4 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Restricting future of artillery and other ranges... concentration of fire, and the properties of these projectiles are such that many duds are deeply buried. Depth...

32 CFR 644.523 - Restricting future of artillery and other ranges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... ranges. Experience indicates that, on ranges where high explosive projectiles have been fired or dropped... 32 National Defense 4 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Restricting future of artillery and other ranges... concentration of fire, and the properties of these projectiles are such that many duds are deeply buried. Depth...

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Convergence of potential net ecosystem production among contrasting C3 grasslands

PubMed Central

Peichl, Matthias; Sonnentag, Oliver; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Kiely, Gerard; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; Pio, Casimiro; Migliavacca, Mirco; Jones, Michael B.; Saunders, Matthew

2013-01-01

Metabolic theory and body size dependent constraints on biomass production and decomposition suggest that differences in the intrinsic potential net ecosystem production (NEPPOT) should be small among contrasting C3 grasslands and therefore unable to explain the wide range in the annual apparent net ecosystem production (NEPAPP) reported by previous studies. We estimated NEPPOT for nine C3 grasslands under contrasting climate and management regimes using multi-year eddy covariance data. NEPPOT converged within a narrow range suggesting little difference in the net carbon dioxide uptake capacity across C3 grasslands. Our results indicate a unique feature of C3 grasslands compared to other terrestrial ecosystems and suggest a state of stability in NEPPOT due to tightly coupled production and respiration processes. Consequently, the annual NEPAPP of C3 grasslands is primarily a function of seasonal and short-term environmental and management constraints, and therefore especially susceptible to changes in future climate patterns and associated adaptation of management practices. PMID:23346985

CubeSats in Hydrology: Ultrahigh-Resolution Insights Into Vegetation Dynamics and Terrestrial Evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe, M. F.; Aragon, B.; Houborg, R.; Mascaro, J.

2017-12-01

Satellite-based remote sensing has generally necessitated a trade-off between spatial resolution and temporal frequency, affecting the capacity to observe fast hydrological processes and rapidly changing land surface conditions. An avenue for overcoming these spatiotemporal restrictions is the concept of using constellations of satellites, as opposed to the mission focus exemplified by the more conventional space-agency approach to earth observation. Referred to as CubeSats, these platforms offer the potential to provide new insights into a range of earth system variables and processes. Their emergence heralds a paradigm shift from single-sensor launches to an operational approach that envisions tens to hundreds of small, lightweight, and comparatively inexpensive satellites placed into a range of low earth orbits. Although current systems are largely limited to sensing in the optical portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, we demonstrate the opportunity and potential that CubeSats present the hydrological community via the retrieval of vegetation dynamics and terrestrial evaporation and foreshadow future sensing capabilities.

Anthropozoonotic Endoparasites in Free-Ranging "Urban" South American Sea Lions (Otaria flavescens).

PubMed

Hermosilla, Carlos; Silva, Liliana M R; Navarro, Mauricio; Taubert, Anja

2016-01-01

The present study represents the first report on the gastrointestinal endoparasite fauna of a free-ranging "urban" colony of South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) living within the city of Valdivia, Chile. A total of 40 individual faecal samples of South American sea lions were collected during the year 2012 within their natural habitat along the river Calle-Calle and in the local fish market of Valdivia. Coprological analyses applying sodium acetate acetic formalin methanol (SAF) technique, carbol fuchsin-stained faecal smears and Giardia/Cryptosporidium coproantigen ELISAs, revealed infections with 8 different parasites belonging to protozoan and metazoan taxa with some of them bearing anthropozoonotic potential. Thus, five of these parasites were zoonotic (Diphyllobothriidae gen. sp., Anisakidae gen. sp., Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Balantidium). Overall, these parasitological findings included four new parasite records for Otaria flavescens, that is, Giardia, Cryptosporidium, Balantidium, and Otostrongylus. The current data serve as a baseline for future monitoring studies on anthropozoonotic parasites circulating in these marine mammals and their potential impact on public health.

Advances in time-of-flight PET

PubMed Central

Surti, Suleman; Karp, Joel S.

2016-01-01

This paper provides a review and an update on time-of-flight PET imaging with a focus on PET instrumentation, ranging from hardware design to software algorithms. We first present a short introduction to PET, followed by a description of TOF PET imaging and its history from the early days. Next, we introduce the current state-of-art in TOF PET technology and briefly summarize the benefits of TOF PET imaging. This is followed by a discussion of the various technological advancements in hardware (scintillators, photo-sensors, electronics) and software (image reconstruction) that have led to the current widespread use of TOF PET technology, and future developments that have the potential for further improvements in the TOF imaging performance. We conclude with a discussion of some new research areas that have opened up in PET imaging as a result of having good system timing resolution, ranging from new algorithms for attenuation correction, through efficient system calibration techniques, to potential for new PET system designs. PMID:26778577

Light-Addressable Potentiometric Sensors for Quantitative Spatial Imaging of Chemical Species.

PubMed

Yoshinobu, Tatsuo; Miyamoto, Ko-Ichiro; Werner, Carl Frederik; Poghossian, Arshak; Wagner, Torsten; Schöning, Michael J

2017-06-12

A light-addressable potentiometric sensor (LAPS) is a semiconductor-based chemical sensor, in which a measurement site on the sensing surface is defined by illumination. This light addressability can be applied to visualize the spatial distribution of pH or the concentration of a specific chemical species, with potential applications in the fields of chemistry, materials science, biology, and medicine. In this review, the features of this chemical imaging sensor technology are compared with those of other technologies. Instrumentation, principles of operation, and various measurement modes of chemical imaging sensor systems are described. The review discusses and summarizes state-of-the-art technologies, especially with regard to the spatial resolution and measurement speed; for example, a high spatial resolution in a submicron range and a readout speed in the range of several tens of thousands of pixels per second have been achieved with the LAPS. The possibility of combining this technology with microfluidic devices and other potential future developments are discussed.

Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

PubMed

Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2017-01-01

Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: evidence from 21 European populations.

PubMed

Kulhánová, Ivana; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Judge, Ken; Looman, Caspar W N; Eikemo, Terje A; Bopp, Matthias; Deboosere, Patrick; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Menvielle, Gwenn; Mackenbach, Johan P

2014-09-01

Although higher education has been associated with lower mortality rates in many studies, the effect of potential improvements in educational distribution on future mortality levels is unknown. We therefore estimated the impact of projected increases in higher education on mortality in European populations. We used mortality and population data according to educational level from 21 European populations and developed counterfactual scenarios. The first scenario represented the improvement in the future distribution of educational attainment as expected on the basis of an assumption of cohort replacement. We estimated the effect of this counterfactual scenario on mortality with a 10-15-year time horizon among men and women aged 30-79 years using a specially developed tool based on population attributable fractions (PAF). We compared this with a second, upward levelling scenario in which everyone has obtained tertiary education. The reduction of mortality in the cohort replacement scenario ranged from 1.9 to 10.1% for men and from 1.7 to 9.0% for women. The reduction of mortality in the upward levelling scenario ranged from 22.0 to 57.0% for men and from 9.6 to 50.0% for women. The cohort replacement scenario was estimated to achieve only part (4-25% (men) and 10-31% (women)) of the potential mortality decrease seen in the upward levelling scenario. We concluded that the effect of on-going improvements in educational attainment on average mortality in the population differs across Europe, and can be substantial. Further investments in education may have important positive side-effects on population health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.

Looking for water related environments on Mars: analysis of reflectance spectra for present and future exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Toffoli, B.; Carli, C.; Maturilli, A.; Sauro, F.; Massironi, M.; Helbert, J.

2017-09-01

Spectroscopic analyses of basalt epithermal alterations, clay minerals and samples representative of wet sedimentary environments in a broad wavelength range from the ultraviolet to the far-infrared provide new loads of information for present and future exploration of environments that could have been linked to water and gas emission. Specifically, methane emission centers on the Martian surface are high interest targets for Exo-Mars mission since they involve environments where life could have potentially arisen, grown and given a contribution to the degassing phenomenon. Such data will be applied to drive the analysis on remotely sensed hyperspectral images of Martian regions where surface expressions of water and sediments resurgences are recognisable, such as the mound fields detected in Utopia and Hellas basins and Vastitas Borealis.

Technology and operational considerations for low-heat-rate trajectories. [of future winged earth reentry vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wurster, K. E.; Eldred, C. H.

1979-01-01

A broad parametric study which examines several critical aspects of low-heat-rate entry trajectories is performed. Low planform loadings associated with future winged earth-entry vehicles coupled with the potential application of metallic thermal protection systems (TPS) suggest that such trajectories are of particular interest. Studied are three heating conditions - reference, stagnation, and windward centerline, for both laminar and turbulent flow; configuration-related factors including planform loading and hypersonic angle of attack; and mission-related factors such as cross-range and orbit inclination. Results indicate benefits in the design of TPS to be gained by utilizing moderate angles of attack as opposed to high-lift coefficient, high angles of attack, during entry. An assessment of design and technology implications is made.

Current and future technological advances in transdermal gene delivery.

PubMed

Chen, Xianfeng

2017-12-19

Transdermal gene delivery holds significant advantages as it is able to minimize the problems of systemic administration such as enzymatic degradation, systemic toxicity, and poor delivery to target tissues. This technology has the potential to transform the treatment and prevention of a range of diseases. However, the skin poses a great barrier for gene delivery because of the "bricks-and-mortar" structure of the stratum corneum and the tight junctions between keratinocytes in the epidermis. This review systematically summarizes the typical physical and chemical approaches to overcome these barriers and facilitate gene delivery via skin for applications in vaccination, wound healing, skin cancers and skin diseases. Next, the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches are discussed and the insights for future development are provided. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recommender systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Linyuan; Medo, Matúš; Yeung, Chi Ho; Zhang, Yi-Cheng; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhou, Tao

2012-10-01

The ongoing rapid expansion of the Internet greatly increases the necessity of effective recommender systems for filtering the abundant information. Extensive research for recommender systems is conducted by a broad range of communities including social and computer scientists, physicists, and interdisciplinary researchers. Despite substantial theoretical and practical achievements, unification and comparison of different approaches are lacking, which impedes further advances. In this article, we review recent developments in recommender systems and discuss the major challenges. We compare and evaluate available algorithms and examine their roles in the future developments. In addition to algorithms, physical aspects are described to illustrate macroscopic behavior of recommender systems. Potential impacts and future directions are discussed. We emphasize that recommendation has great scientific depth and combines diverse research fields which makes it interesting for physicists as well as interdisciplinary researchers.

Physics perspectives of heavy-ion collisions at very high energy

DOE PAGES

Chang, Ning-bo; Cao, ShanShan; Chen, Bao-yi; ...

2016-01-15

We expect heavy-ion collisions at very high colliding energies to produce a quark-gluon plasma (QGP) at the highest temperature obtainable in a laboratory setting. Experimental studies of these reactions can provide an unprecedented range of information on properties of the QGP at high temperatures. We also report theoretical investigations of the physics perspectives of heavy-ion collisions at a future high-energy collider. These include initial parton production, collective expansion of the dense medium, jet quenching, heavy-quark transport, dissociation and regeneration of quarkonia, photon and dilepton production. Here, we illustrate the potential of future experimental studies of the initial particle production andmore » formation of QGP at the highest temperature to provide constraints on properties of strongly interaction matter.« less

Developing an ecosystem perspective from experimental monitoring programs: II. Ecophysiological responses of a rare geothermal grass to soil water.

PubMed

Pavlik, B M

2001-08-01

Measurements of xylem water potential, leaf conductance, and leaf pressure-volume characteristics on the geothermal endemic Dichanthelium lanuginosum var. thermale (DILA) were used to delineate operational ranges during wet and dry years and among several microsites at Little Geysers, Sonoma County, California, USA. Plants seldom experienced water potentials more negative that -1.5 MPa. Other nongeothermal, widespread species experienced the lower water potentials typical of chaparral and woodland plants. DILA was able to effectively utilize geothermal water while the widespread species could not and was able to keep stomata open during most of the year. There was evidence to suggest that DILA had some ability to acclimate with significant shifts in Pio and psio during the dry 1994 summer, especially in the upland microhabitat. Nevertheless, minimum leaf turgor values in the upland came very close to, or dropped below, the 0.2-0.3 MPa threshold thought necessary to maintain stomatal opening and photosynthesis. DILA thus depends upon the unique water status of fumarole soils in the vicinity of the Little Geysers to persist in an otherwise lethal regional mosaic of climate, soil, and vegetation. The physiological data were used to derive reference ranges for subsequent monitoring of DILA at Little Geysers. Such ranges are required to determine the future impact, if any, of geothermal development on the persistence of this rare grass and its complex ecosystem.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-01-01

BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. ConclusionsThe primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to increase ambient PM concentrations. This particularly applies to highly explosive silicic eruptions, but can also hold true for explosive basaltic eruptions or discrete events associated with basaltic fissure eruptions.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

PubMed

Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-09-11

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to increase ambient PM concentrations. This particularly applies to highly explosive silicic eruptions, but can also hold true for explosive basaltic eruptions or discrete events associated with basaltic fissure eruptions.

Increased temperature, but not acidification, enhances fertilization and development in a tropical urchin: potential for adaptation to a tropicalized eastern Australia.

PubMed

Foo, Shawna A; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Khatkar, Mehar S; Poore, Alistair G B; Byrne, Maria

2014-12-01

To predict the effects of global change on marine populations, it is important to measure the effects of climate stressors on performance and potential for adaptation. Adaptation depends on heritable genetic variance for stress tolerance being present in populations. We determined the effects of near-future ocean conditions on fertilization success of the sea urchin Pseudoboletia indiana. In 16 multiple dam-sire crosses, we quantified genetic variation in tolerance of warming (+3°C) and acidification (-0.3 to 0.5 pH units) at the gastrulation stage. Ocean acidification decreased fertilization across all dam-sire combinations with effects of pH significantly differing among the pairings. Decreased pH reduced the percentage of normal gastrulae with negative effects alleviated by increased temperature. Significant sire by environment interactions indicated the presence of heritable variation in tolerance of stressors at gastrulation and thus the potential for selection of resistant genotypes, which may enhance population persistence. A low genetic correlation indicated that genotypes that performed well at gastrulation in low pH did not necessarily perform well at higher temperatures. Furthermore, performance at fertilization was not necessarily a good predictor of performance at the later stage of gastrulation. Southern range edge populations of Pseudoboletia indiana may benefit from future warming with potential for extension of their distribution in south-east Australia.

Increased temperature, but not acidification, enhances fertilization and development in a tropical urchin: potential for adaptation to a tropicalized eastern Australia

PubMed Central

Foo, Shawna A; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Khatkar, Mehar S; Poore, Alistair G B; Byrne, Maria

2014-01-01

To predict the effects of global change on marine populations, it is important to measure the effects of climate stressors on performance and potential for adaptation. Adaptation depends on heritable genetic variance for stress tolerance being present in populations. We determined the effects of near-future ocean conditions on fertilization success of the sea urchin Pseudoboletia indiana. In 16 multiple dam-sire crosses, we quantified genetic variation in tolerance of warming (+3°C) and acidification (−0.3 to 0.5 pH units) at the gastrulation stage. Ocean acidification decreased fertilization across all dam-sire combinations with effects of pH significantly differing among the pairings. Decreased pH reduced the percentage of normal gastrulae with negative effects alleviated by increased temperature. Significant sire by environment interactions indicated the presence of heritable variation in tolerance of stressors at gastrulation and thus the potential for selection of resistant genotypes, which may enhance population persistence. A low genetic correlation indicated that genotypes that performed well at gastrulation in low pH did not necessarily perform well at higher temperatures. Furthermore, performance at fertilization was not necessarily a good predictor of performance at the later stage of gastrulation. Southern range edge populations of Pseudoboletia indiana may benefit from future warming with potential for extension of their distribution in south-east Australia. PMID:25558283

Isolation of a diphenylamine-degrading bacterium and characterization of its metabolic capacities, bioremediation and bioaugmentation potential.

PubMed

Perruchon, Chiara; Batianis, Christos; Zouborlis, Stelios; Papadopoulou, Evangelia S; Ntougias, Spyridon; Vasileiadis, Sotirios; Karpouzas, Dimitrios G

2015-12-01

The antioxidant diphenylamine (DPA) is used in fruit-packaging plants for the control of the physiological disorder apple scald. Its use results in the production of DPA-contaminated wastewater which should be treated before finally discharged. Biological treatment systems using tailored-made microbial inocula with specific catabolic activities comprise an appealing and sustainable solution. This study aimed to isolate DPA-degrading bacteria, identify the metabolic pathway of DPA and evaluate their potential for future implementation in bioremediation and biodepuration applications. A Pseudomonas putida strain named DPA1 able to rapidly degrade and utilize DPA as the sole C and N source was enriched from a DPA-contaminated soil. The isolated strain degraded spillage-level concentrations of DPA in liquid culture (2000 mg L(-1)) and in contaminated soil (1000 mg kg(-1)) and metabolized DPA via the transient formation of aniline and catechol. Further evidence for the bioremediation and biodepuration potential of the P. putida strain DPA1 was provided by its capacity to degrade the post-harvest fungicide ortho-phenylphenol (OPP), concurrently used by the fruit-packaging plants, although at slower rates and DPA in a wide range of pH (4.5-9) and temperatures (15-37 °C). These findings revealed the high potential of the P. putida strain DPA1 for use in future soil bioremediation strategies and/or as start-up inocula in wastewater biodepuration systems.

Considerations in the Design of Future Planetary Laser Altimeters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. E.; Neumann, G. A.; Mazarico, E.; Zuber, M. T.; Sun, X.

2017-12-01

Planetary laser altimeters have generally been designed to provide high accuracy measurements of the nadir range to an uncooperative surface for deriving the shape of the target body, and sometimes specifically for identifying and characterizing potential landing sites. However, experience has shown that in addition to the range measurement, other valuable observations can be acquired, including surface reflectance and surface roughness, despite not being given high priority in the original altimeter design or even anticipated. After nearly 2 decades of planetary laser altimeter design, the requirements are evolving and additional capabilities are becoming equally important. The target bodies, once the terrestrial planets, are now equally asteroids and moons that in many cases do not permit simple orbital operations due to their small mass, radiation issues, or spacecraft fuel limitations. In addition, for a number of reasons, it has become necessary to perform shape determination from a much greater range, even thousands of kilometers, and thus ranging is becoming as important as nadir altimetry. Reflectance measurements have also proved important for assessing the presence of ice, water or CO2, and laser pulse spreading informed knowledge of surface roughness; all indicating a need for improved instrument capability. Recently, the need to obtain accurate range measurement to laser reflectors on landers or on a planetary surface is presenting new science opportunities but for which current designs are far from optimal. These changes to classic laser altimetry have consequences for many instrument functions and capabilities, including beam divergence, laser power, number of beams and detectors, pixelation, energy measurements, pointing stability, polarization, laser wavelengths, and laser pulse rate dependent range. We will discuss how a new consideration of these trades will help make lidars key instruments to execute innovative science in future planetary missions.

Alternative futures for Borneo show the value of integrating economic and conservation targets across borders

PubMed Central

Runting, Rebecca K.; Meijaard, Erik; Abram, Nicola K.; Wells, Jessie A.; Gaveau, David L.A.; Ancrenaz, Marc; Posssingham, Hugh P.; Wich, Serge A.; Ardiansyah, Fitrian; Gumal, Melvin T.; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Wilson, Kerrie A.

2015-01-01

Balancing economic development with international commitments to protect biodiversity is a global challenge. Achieving this balance requires an understanding of the possible consequences of alternative future scenarios for a range of stakeholders. We employ an integrated economic and environmental planning approach to evaluate four alternative futures for the mega-diverse island of Borneo. We show what could be achieved if the three national jurisdictions of Borneo coordinate efforts to achieve their public policy targets and allow a partial reallocation of planned land uses. We reveal the potential for Borneo to simultaneously retain ∼50% of its land as forests, protect adequate habitat for the Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) and Bornean elephant (Elephas maximus borneensis), and achieve an opportunity cost saving of over US$43 billion. Such coordination would depend on enhanced information sharing and reforms to land-use planning, which could be supported by the increasingly international nature of economies and conservation efforts. PMID:25871635

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Pediatric robotic urologic surgery-2014

PubMed Central

Kearns, James T.; Gundeti, Mohan S.

2014-01-01

We seek to provide a background of the current state of pediatric urologic surgery including a brief history, procedural outcomes, cost considerations, future directions, and the state of robotic surgery in India. Pediatric robotic urology has been shown to be safe and effective in cases ranging from pyeloplasty to bladder augmentation with continent urinary diversion. Complication rates are in line with other methods of performing the same procedures. The cost of robotic surgery continues to decrease, but setting up pediatric robotic urology programs can be costly in terms of both monetary investment and the training of robotic surgeons. The future directions of robot surgery include instrument and system refinements, augmented reality and haptics, and telesurgery. Given the large number of children in India, there is huge potential for growth of pediatric robotic urology in India. Pediatric robotic urologic surgery has been established as safe and effective, and it will be an important tool in the future of pediatric urologic surgery worldwide. PMID:25197187

Analyzing the Sensitivity of Hydrogen Vehicle Sales to Consumers' Preferences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greene, David L; Lin, Zhenhong; Dong, Jing

2013-01-01

The success of hydrogen vehicles will depend on consumer behavior as well as technology, energy prices and public policy. This study examines the sensitivity of the future market shares of hydrogen-powered vehicles to alternative assumptions about consumers preferences. The Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies model was used to project future market shares. The model has 1,458 market segments, differentiated by travel behavior, geography, and tolerance to risk, among other factors, and it estimates market shares for twenty advanced power-train technologies. The market potential of hydrogen vehicles is most sensitive to the improvement of drive train technology, especially cost reduction.more » The long-run market success of hydrogen vehicles is less sensitive to the price elasticity of vehicle choice, how consumers evaluate future fuel costs, the importance of fuel availability and limited driving range. The importance of these factors will likely be greater in the early years following initial commercialization of hydrogen vehicles.« less

Climate change adaptation in regulated water utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Harou, J. J.; Characklis, G. W.; Ricalde, I.

2017-12-01

Concern about climate change impacts on water supply systems has grown in recent years. However, there are still few examples of pro-active interventions (e.g. infrastructure investment or policy changes) meant to address plausible future changes. Deep uncertainty associated with climate impacts, future demands, and regulatory constraints might explain why utility planning in a range of contexts doesn't explicitly consider climate change scenarios and potential adaptive responses. Given the importance of water supplies for economic development and the cost and longevity of many water infrastructure investments, large urban water supply systems could suffer from lack of pro-active climate change adaptation. Water utilities need to balance the potential for high regret stranded assets on the one side, with insufficient supplies leading to potentially severe socio-economic, political and environmental failures on the other, and need to deal with a range of interests and constraints. This work presents initial findings from a project looking at how cities in Chile, the US and the UK are developing regulatory frameworks that incorporate utility planning under uncertainty. Considering for example the city of Santiago, Chile, recent studies have shown that although high scarcity cost scenarios are plausible, pre-emptive investment to guard from possible water supply failures is still remote and not accommodated by current planning practice. A first goal of the project is to compare and contrast regulatory approaches to utility risks considering climate change adaptation measures. Subsequently we plan to develop and propose a custom approach for the city of Santiago based on lessons learned from other contexts. The methodological approach combines institutional assessment of water supply regulatory frameworks with simulation-based decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Here we present initial work comparing the regulatory frameworks in Chile, UK and USA evaluating their ability to incorporate uncertain climate and other changes into long-term infrastructure investment planning. The potential for regulatory and financial adaptive measures is explored in addition to a discussion on evaluating their appropriateness via various modelling-based intervention decision-making approaches.

Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.

PubMed

Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C

2017-12-01

Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Partially Turboelectric Aircraft Drive Key Performance Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jansen, Ralph H.; Duffy, Kirsten P.; Brown, Gerald V.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to propose electric drive specific power, electric drive efficiency, and electrical propulsion fraction as the key performance parameters for a partially turboelectric aircraft power system and to investigate their impact on the overall aircraft performance. Breguet range equations for a base conventional turbofan aircraft and a partially turboelectric aircraft are found. The benefits and costs that may result from the partially turboelectric system are enumerated. A break even analysis is conducted to find the minimum allowable electric drive specific power and efficiency, for a given electrical propulsion fraction, that can preserve the range, fuel weight, operating empty weight, and payload weight of the conventional aircraft. Current and future power system performance is compared to the required performance to determine the potential benefit.

Analyzing the Discovery Potential for Light Dark Matter.

PubMed

Izaguirre, Eder; Krnjaic, Gordan; Schuster, Philip; Toro, Natalia

2015-12-18

In this Letter, we determine the present status of sub-GeV thermal dark matter annihilating through standard model mixing, with special emphasis on interactions through the vector portal. Within representative simple models, we carry out a complete and precise calculation of the dark matter abundance and of all available constraints. We also introduce a concise framework for comparing different experimental approaches, and use this comparison to identify important ranges of dark matter mass and couplings to better explore in future experiments. The requirement that dark matter be a thermal relic sets a sharp sensitivity target for terrestrial experiments, and so we highlight complementary experimental approaches that can decisively reach this milestone sensitivity over the entire sub-GeV mass range.

ECUT: Energy Conversion and Utilization Technologies program - Biocatalysis research activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, R.

1984-01-01

The activities of the Biocatalysis Research Activity are organized into the Biocatalysis and Molecular Modeling work elements and a supporting planning and analysis function. In the Biocatalysis work element, progress is made in developing a method for stabilizing genetically engineered traits in microorganisms, refining a technique for monitoring cells that are genetically engineered, and identifying strains of fungi for highly efficient preprocessing of biomass for optimizing the efficiency of bioreactors. In the Molecular Modeling work element, a preliminary model of the behavior of enzymes is developed. A preliminary investigation of the potential for synthesizing enzymes for use in electrochemical processes is completed. Contact with industry and universities is made to define key biocatalysis technical issues and to broaden the range of potential participants in the activity. Analyses are conducted to identify and evaluate potential concepts for future research funding.

Methane emissions partially offset “blue carbon” burial in mangroves

PubMed Central

Maher, Damien T.

2018-01-01

Organic matter burial in mangrove forests results in the removal and long-term storage of atmospheric CO2, so-called “blue carbon.” However, some of this organic matter is metabolized and returned to the atmosphere as CH4. Because CH4 has a higher global warming potential than the CO2 fixed in the organic matter, it can offset the CO2 removed via carbon burial. We provide the first estimate of the global magnitude of this offset. Our results show that high CH4 evasion rates have the potential to partially offset blue carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments on average by 20% (sensitivity analysis offset range, 18 to 22%) using the 20-year global warming potential. Hence, mangrove sediment and water CH4 emissions should be accounted for in future blue carbon assessments.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Designing augmentative and alternative communication applications: the results of focus groups with speech-language pathologists and parents of children with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Boster, Jamie B; McCarthy, John W

2018-05-01

The purpose of this study was to gain insight from speech-language pathologists (SLPs) and parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) regarding appealing features of augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) applications. Two separate 1-hour focus groups were conducted with 8 SLPs and 5 parents of children with ASD to identify appealing design features of AAC Apps, their benefits and potential concerns. Participants were shown novel interface designs for communication mode, play mode and incentive systems. Participants responded to poll questions and provided benefits and drawbacks of the features as part of structured discussion. SLPs and parents identified a range of appealing features in communication mode (customization, animation and colour-coding) as well as in play mode (games and videos). SLPs preferred interfaces that supported motor planning and instruction while parents preferred those features such as character assistants that would appeal to their child. Overall SLPs and parents agreed on features for future AAC Apps. SLPs and parents have valuable input in regards to future AAC app design informed by their experiences with children with ASD. Both groups are key stakeholders in the design process and should be included in future design and research endeavors. Implications for Rehabilitation AAC applications for the iPad are often designed based on previous devices without consideration of new features. Ensuring the design of new interfaces are appealing and beneficial for children with ASD can potentially further support their communication. This study demonstrates how key stakeholders in AAC including speech language pathologists and parents can provide information to support the development of future AAC interface designs. Key stakeholders may be an untapped resource in the development of future AAC interfaces for children with ASD.

Development of Adygine glacier complex (glacier and proglacial lakes) and its link to outburst hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falatkova, Kristyna; Schöner, Wolfgang; Häusler, Hermann; Reisenhofer, Stefan; Neureiter, Anton; Sobr, Miroslav; Jansky, Bohumir

2017-04-01

Mountain glacier retreat has a well-known impact on life of local population - besides anxiety over water supply for agriculture, industry, or households, it has proved to have a direct influence on glacier hazard occurrence. The paper focuses on lake outburst hazard specifically, and aims to describe the previous and future development of Adygine glacier complex and identify its relationship to the hazard. The observed glacier is situated in the Northern Tien Shan, with an area of 4 km2 in northern exposition at an elevation range of 3,500-4,200 m a.s.l. The study glacier ranks in the group of small-sized glaciers, therefore we expect it to respond faster to changes of the climate compared to larger ones. Below the glacier there is a three-level cascade of proglacial lakes at different stages of development. The site has been observed sporadically since 1960s, however, closer study has been carried out since 2007. Past development of the glacier-lake complex is analyzed by combination of satellite imagery interpretations and on-site measurements (geodetic and bathymetric survey). A glacier mass balance model is used to simulate future development of the glacier resulting from climate scenarios. We used the simulated future glacier extent and the glacier base topography provided by GPR survey to assess potential for future lake formation. This enables us to assess the outburst hazard for the three selected lakes with an outlook for possible/probable hazard changes linked to further complex succession/progression (originating from climate change scenarios). Considering the proximity of the capital Bishkek, spreading settlements, and increased demand for tourism-related infrastructure within the main valley, it is of high importance to identify the present and possible future hazards that have a potential to affect this region.

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayarzaguena, B.; Langematz, U.; Polvani, L. M; Abalichin, J.; Akiyoshi, H.; Klekociuk, A.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Oman, L.

2015-01-01

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Updates to Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Potential Estimate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad

The deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was updated using the most recent temperature-at-depth maps available from the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory. The previous study dates back to 2011 and was developed using the original temperature-at-depth maps showcased in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy report. The methodology used to update the deep EGS resource potential is the same as in the previous study and is summarized in the paper. The updated deep EGS resource potential estimate was calculated for depths between 3 and 7 km and is binned inmore » 25 degrees C increments. The updated deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate is 4,349 GWe. A comparison of the estimates from the previous and updated studies shows a net increase of 117 GWe in the 3-7 km depth range, due mainly to increases in the underlying temperature-at-depth estimates from the updated maps.« less

The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Anthony; Green, Rhys; Bateman, Ian; Broadmeadow, Mark; Bruce, Toby; Burney, Jennifer; Carey, Pete; Chadwick, David; Crane, Ellie; Field, Rob; Goulding, Keith; Griffiths, Howard; Hastings, Astley; Kasoar, Tim; Kindred, Daniel; Phalan, Ben; Pickett, John; Smith, Pete; Wall, Eileen; Zu Ermgassen, Erasmus K. H. J.; Balmford, Andrew

2016-05-01

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing--increasing agricultural yields, reducing farmland area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the UK as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential--however, economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realized in practice.

Comparison of methane production potential, biodegradability, and kinetics of different organic substrates.

PubMed

Li, Yeqing; Zhang, Ruihong; Liu, Guangqing; Chen, Chang; He, Yanfeng; Liu, Xiaoying

2013-12-01

The methane production potential, biodegradability, and kinetics of a wide range of organic substrates were determined using a unified and simple method. Results showed that feedstocks that contained high energy density and easily degradable substrates exhibited high methane production potential and biodegradability. Lignocellulosic biomass with high content of fibrous compositions had low methane yield and biodegradability. Feedstocks with high lignin content (≥ 15%, on a TS basis) had low first-order rate constant (0.05-0.06 1/d) compared to others. A negative linear correlation between lignin content and experimental methane yield (or biodegradability) was found for lignocellulosic and manure wastes. This could be used as a fast method to predict the methane production potential and biodegradability of fiber-rich substrates. The findings of this study provided a database for the conversion efficiency of different organic substrates and might be useful for applications of biomethane potential assay and anaerobic digestion in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Update to Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Potential Estimate: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad

2016-10-01

The deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was updated using the most recent temperature-at-depth maps available from the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory. The previous study dates back to 2011 and was developed using the original temperature-at-depth maps showcased in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy report. The methodology used to update the deep EGS resource potential is the same as in the previous study and is summarized in the paper. The updated deep EGS resource potential estimate was calculated for depths between 3 and 7 km and is binned inmore » 25 degrees C increments. The updated deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate is 4,349 GWe. A comparison of the estimates from the previous and updated studies shows a net increase of 117 GWe in the 3-7 km depth range, due mainly to increases in the underlying temperature-at-depth estimates from the updated maps.« less

Aquaporins in the eye: Expression, function, and roles in ocular disease☆

PubMed Central

Schey, Kevin L.; Wang, Zhen; Wenke, Jamie L.; Qi, Ying

2015-01-01

Background All thirteen known mammalian aquaporins have been detected in the eye. Moreover, aquaporins have been identified as playing essential roles in ocular functions ranging from maintenance of lens and corneal transparency to production of aqueous humor to maintenance of cellular homeostasis and regulation of signal transduction in the retina. Scope of review This review summarizes the expression and known functions of ocular aquaporins and discusses their known and potential roles in ocular diseases. Major conclusions Aquaporins play essential roles in all ocular tissues. Remarkably, not all aquaporin function as a water permeable channel and the functions of many aquaporins in ocular tissues remain unknown. Given their vital roles in maintaining ocular function and their roles in disease, aquaporins represent potential targets for future therapeutic development. General significance Since aquaporins play key roles in ocular physiology, an understanding of these functions is important to improving ocular health and treating diseases of the eye. It is likely that future therapies for ocular diseases will rely on modulation of aquaporin expression and/or function. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled Aquaporins. PMID:24184915

Polarimetric Multispectral Imaging Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, L.-J.; Chao, T.-H.; Dowdy, M.; Mahoney, C.; Reyes, G.

1993-01-01

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is developing a remote sensing technology on which a new generation of compact, lightweight, high-resolution, low-power, reliable, versatile, programmable scientific polarimetric multispectral imaging instruments can be built to meet the challenge of future planetary exploration missions. The instrument is based on the fast programmable acousto-optic tunable filter (AOTF) of tellurium dioxide (TeO2) that operates in the wavelength range of 0.4-5 microns. Basically, the AOTF multispectral imaging instrument measures incoming light intensity as a function of spatial coordinates, wavelength, and polarization. Its operation can be in either sequential, random access, or multiwavelength mode as required. This provides observation flexibility, allowing real-time alternation among desired observations, collecting needed data only, minimizing data transmission, and permitting implementation of new experiments. These will result in optimization of the mission performance with minimal resources. Recently we completed a polarimetric multispectral imaging prototype instrument and performed outdoor field experiments for evaluating application potentials of the technology. We also investigated potential improvements on AOTF performance to strengthen technology readiness for applications. This paper will give a status report on the technology and a prospect toward future planetary exploration.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategiesmore » are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategiesmore » are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.« less

Potential benefits from a successful solar thermal program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Gates, W. R.

1982-01-01

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs.

Evaluation of advanced propulsion options for the next manned transportation system: Propulsion evolution study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spears, L. T.; Kramer, R. D.

1990-01-01

The objectives were to examine launch vehicle applications and propulsion requirements for potential future manned space transportation systems and to support planning toward the evolution of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) and Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) engines beyond their current or initial launch vehicle applications. As a basis for examinations of potential future manned launch vehicle applications, we used three classes of manned space transportation concepts currently under study: Space Transportation System Evolution, Personal Launch System (PLS), and Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS). Tasks included studies of launch vehicle applications and requirements for hydrogen-oxygen rocket engines; the development of suggestions for STME engine evolution beyond the mid-1990's; the development of suggestions for STME evolution beyond the Advanced Launch System (ALS) application; the study of booster propulsion options, including LOX-Hydrocarbon options; the analysis of the prospects and requirements for utilization of a single engine configuration over the full range of vehicle applications, including manned vehicles plus ALS and Shuttle C; and a brief review of on-going and planned LOX-Hydrogen propulsion technology activities.

Epicardial fat and atrial fibrillation: current evidence, potential mechanisms, clinical implications, and future directions.

PubMed

Wong, Christopher X; Ganesan, Anand N; Selvanayagam, Joseph B

2017-05-01

Obesity is increasingly recognized as a major modifiable determinant of atrial fibrillation (AF). Although body mass index and other clinical measures are useful indications of general adiposity, much recent interest has focused on epicardial fat, a distinct adipose tissue depot that can be readily assessed using non-invasive imaging techniques. A growing body of data from epidemiological and clinical studies has demonstrated that epicardial fat is consistently associated with the presence, severity, and recurrence of AF across a range of clinical settings. Evidence from basic science and translational studies has also suggested that arrhythmogenic mechanisms may involve adipocyte infiltration, pro-fibrotic, and pro-inflammatory paracrine effects, oxidative stress, and other pathways. Despite these advances, however, significant uncertainty exists and many questions remain unanswered. In this article, we review our present understanding of epicardial fat, including its classification and quantification, existing evidence implicating its role in AF, potential mechanisms, implications for clinicians, and future directions for research. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A logistics and potential hazard study of propellant systems for a Saturn 5 derived heavy lift (three-stage core) launch vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitney, E. Dow

1992-01-01

The Bush Administration has directed NASA to prepare for a return to the Moon and on to Mars - the Space Exploration Initiative. To meet this directive, powerful rocket boosters will be required in order to lift payloads that may reach the half-million pound range into low earth orbit. In this report an analysis is presented on logistics and potential hazards of the propellant systems envisioned for future Saturn 5 derived heavy lift launch vehicles. In discussing propellant logistics, particular attention has been given to possible problems associated with procurement, transportation, and storage of RP-1, HL2, and LOX, the heavy lift launch vehicle propellants. Current LOX producing facilities will need to be expanded and propellant storage and some support facilities will require relocation if current Launch Pads 39A and/or 39B are to be used for future heavy noise-abatement measures. Included in the report is a discussion of suggested additional studies, primarily economic and environmental, which should be undertaken in support of the goals of the Space Exploration Initiative.

Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

2011-12-01

Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of climate change. Whether these events are exceptional in the context of the historic record is a key question in detecting a climate change signal and evaluating the potential future impacts. However, a detectable signal is generally masked by uncertainties in the data, particularly for precipitation, but also the impact of changes in evapotranspiration, and its driving radiative and aerodynamic controls. We also explore the potential future impacts of global warming on drought and agricultural productivity over the next 30-100 years using future climate data from downscaled and bias corrected climate model data. This indicates that drying in marginal climates coupled with increased evaporation may have the largest impact on drought occurrence and agricultural productivity.

Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

2018-01-01

Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

Music-Evoked Emotions—Current Studies

PubMed Central

Schaefer, Hans-Eckhardt

2017-01-01

The present study is focused on a review of the current state of investigating music-evoked emotions experimentally, theoretically and with respect to their therapeutic potentials. After a concise historical overview and a schematic of the hearing mechanisms, experimental studies on music listeners and on music performers are discussed, starting with the presentation of characteristic musical stimuli and the basic features of tomographic imaging of emotional activation in the brain, such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and positron emission tomography (PET), which offer high spatial resolution in the millimeter range. The progress in correlating activation imaging in the brain to the psychological understanding of music-evoked emotion is demonstrated and some prospects for future research are outlined. Research in psychoneuroendocrinology and molecular markers is reviewed in the context of music-evoked emotions and the results indicate that the research in this area should be intensified. An assessment of studies involving measuring techniques with high temporal resolution down to the 10 ms range, as, e.g., electroencephalography (EEG), event-related brain potentials (ERP), magnetoencephalography (MEG), skin conductance response (SCR), finger temperature, and goose bump development (piloerection) can yield information on the dynamics and kinetics of emotion. Genetic investigations reviewed suggest the heredity transmission of a predilection for music. Theoretical approaches to musical emotion are directed to a unified model for experimental neurological evidence and aesthetic judgment. Finally, the reports on musical therapy are briefly outlined. The study concludes with an outlook on emerging technologies and future research fields. PMID:29225563

Estimation of stream temperature in support of fish production modeling under future climates in the Klamath River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

Stream temperature estimates under future climatic conditions were needed in support of fish production modeling for evaluation of effects of dam removal in the Klamath River Basin. To allow for the persistence of the Klamath River salmon fishery, an upcoming Secretarial Determination in 2012 will review potential changes in water quality and stream temperature to assess alternative scenarios, including dam removal. Daily stream temperature models were developed by using a regression model approach with simulated net solar radiation, vapor density deficit calculated on the basis of air temperature, and mean daily air temperature. Models were calibrated for 6 streams in the Lower, and 18 streams in the Upper, Klamath Basin by using measured stream temperatures for 1999-2008. The standard error of the y-estimate for the estimation of stream temperature for the 24 streams ranged from 0.36 to 1.64°C, with an average error of 1.12°C for all streams. The regression models were then used with projected air temperatures to estimate future stream temperatures for 2010-99. Although the mean change from the baseline historical period of 1950-99 to the projected future period of 2070-99 is only 1.2°C, it ranges from 3.4°C for the Shasta River to no change for Fall Creek and Trout Creek. Variability is also evident in the future with a mean change in temperature for all streams from the baseline period to the projected period of 2070-99 of only 1°C, while the range in stream temperature change is from 0 to 2.1°C. The baseline period, 1950-99, to which the air temperature projections were corrected, established the starting point for the projected changes in air temperature. The average measured daily air temperature for the calibration period 1999-2008, however, was found to be as much as 2.3°C higher than baseline for some rivers, indicating that warming conditions have already occurred in many areas of the Klamath River Basin, and that the stream temperature projections for the 21st century could be underestimating the actual change.

Projecting the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests (1851-2100)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.

2009-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Estimates of the carbon emissions resulting from single storms range as high as ~100 Tg C, an amount equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink in forest trees. Recent studies have estimated the historic regional carbon emissions from hurricane activity using an empirically based approach. Here, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by maps of mortality and damage based on historic hurricane tracks and future scenarios to predict the past and future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests. Model estimates compare well to previous empirically based estimates, with mean annual biomass loss of 26 Tg C yr-1 (range 0 to ~225 Tg C yr-1) resulting from hurricanes during the period 1851-2000. Using the mechanistic model, we are able to include the effects of both disturbance and recovery on the net carbon flux. We find a regional carbon sink throughout much of the 20th century resulting from forest recovery following a peak in hurricane activity during the late 19th century exceeding biomass loss. Recent increased hurricane activity has resulted in the region becoming a net carbon source. For the future, several recent studies have linked increased sea surface temperatures expected with climate change to increased hurricane activity. Based on these relationships, we investigate a range of scenarios of future hurricane activity and find the potential for substantial increases in emissions from hurricane mortality and reductions in regional carbon stocks. In our scenario with the largest increase in hurricane activity, we find a 35% increase in area disturbed by 2100, but due to the reduction of standing biomass, only a 20% increase in biomass loss per year. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests of the eastern U.S.

User expectations for multibeam echo sounders backscatter strength data-looking back into the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucieer, Vanessa; Roche, Marc; Degrendele, Koen; Malik, Mashkoor; Dolan, Margaret; Lamarche, Geoffroy

2018-06-01

With the ability of multibeam echo sounders (MBES) to measure backscatter strength (BS) as a function of true angle of insonification across the seafloor, came a new recognition of the potential of backscatter measurements to remotely characterize the properties of the seafloor. Advances in transducer design, digital electronics, signal processing capabilities, navigation, and graphic display devices, have improved the resolution and particularly the dynamic range available to sonar and processing software manufacturers. Alongside these improvements the expectations of what the data can deliver has also grown. In this paper, we identify these user-expectations and explore how MBES backscatter is utilized by different communities involved in marine seabed research at present, and the aspirations that these communities have for the data in the future. The results presented here are based on a user survey conducted by the GeoHab (Marine Geological and Biological Habitat Mapping) association. This paper summarises the different processing procedures employed to extract useful information from MBES backscatter data and the various intentions for which the user community collect the data. We show how a range of backscatter output products are generated from the different processing procedures, and how these results are taken up by different scientific disciplines, and also identify common constraints in handling MBES BS data. Finally, we outline our expectations for the future of this unique and important data source for seafloor mapping and characterisation.

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

A comparison of soil moisture sensors for space flight applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norikane, J. H.; Prenger, J. J.; Rouzan-Wheeldon, D. T.; Levine, H. G.

2005-01-01

Plants will be an important part of future long-term space missions. Automated plant growth systems require accurate and reliable methods of monitoring soil moisture levels. There are a number of different methods to accomplish this task. This study evaluated sensors using the capacitance method (ECH2O), the heat-pulse method (TMAS), and tensiometers, compared to soil water loss measured gravimetrically in a side-by-side test. The experiment monitored evaporative losses from substrate compartments filled with 1- to 2-mm baked calcinated clay media. The ECH2O data correlated well with the gravimetric measurements, but over a limited range of soil moisture. The averaged TMAS sensor data overstated soil moisture content levels. The tensiometer data appeared to track evaporative losses in the 0.5- to 2.5-kPa range of matric potential that corresponds to the water content needed to grow plants. This small range is characteristic of large particle media, and thus high-resolution tensiometers are required to distinguish changing moisture contents in this range.

Stirling engine application study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teagan, W. P.; Cunningham, D.

1983-01-01

A range of potential applications for Stirling engines in the power range from 0.5 to 5000 hp is surveyed. Over one hundred such engine applications are grouped into a small number of classes (10), with the application in each class having a high degree of commonality in technical performance and cost requirements. A review of conventional engines (usually spark ignition or Diesel) was then undertaken to determine the degree to which commercial engine practice now serves the needs of the application classes and to detemine the nature of the competition faced by a new engine system. In each application class the Stirling engine was compared to the conventional engines, assuming that objectives of ongoing Stirling engine development programs are met. This ranking process indicated that Stirling engines showed potential for use in all application classes except very light duty applications (lawn mowers, etc.). However, this potential is contingent on demonstrating much greater operating life and reliability than has been demonstrated to date by developmental Stirling engine systems. This implies that future program initiatives in developing Stirling engine systems should give more emphasis to life and reliability issues than has been the case in ongoing programs.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

2018-03-01

Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

High-speed broadband elastic actuator in water using induced-charge electro-osmosis with a skew structure.

PubMed

Sugioka, Hideyuki; Nakano, Naoki

2018-01-01

An artificial cilium using ac electro-osmosis (ACEO) is attractive because of its large potentiality for innovative microfluidic applications. However, the ACEO cilium has not been probed experimentally and has a shortcoming that the working frequency range is very narrow. Thus, we here propose an ACEO elastic actuator having a skew structure that broadens a working frequency range and experimentally demonstrate that the elastic actuator in water can be driven with a high-speed (∼10 Hz) and a wide frequency range (∼0.1 to ∼10 kHz). Moreover, we propose a simple self-consistent model that explains the broadband characteristic due to the skew structure with other characteristics. By comparing the theoretical results with the experimental results, we find that they agree fairly well. We believe that our ACEO elastic actuator will play an important role in microfluidics in the future.

High-speed broadband elastic actuator in water using induced-charge electro-osmosis with a skew structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugioka, Hideyuki; Nakano, Naoki

2018-01-01

An artificial cilium using ac electro-osmosis (ACEO) is attractive because of its large potentiality for innovative microfluidic applications. However, the ACEO cilium has not been probed experimentally and has a shortcoming that the working frequency range is very narrow. Thus, we here propose an ACEO elastic actuator having a skew structure that broadens a working frequency range and experimentally demonstrate that the elastic actuator in water can be driven with a high-speed (˜10 Hz) and a wide frequency range (˜0.1 to ˜10 kHz). Moreover, we propose a simple self-consistent model that explains the broadband characteristic due to the skew structure with other characteristics. By comparing the theoretical results with the experimental results, we find that they agree fairly well. We believe that our ACEO elastic actuator will play an important role in microfluidics in the future.

Test beam studies of possibilities to separate particles with gamma factors above 103 with straw based Transition Radiation Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belyaev, N.; Cherry, M. L.; Doronin, S. A.; Filippov, K.; Fusco, P.; Konovalov, S.; Krasnopevtsev, D.; Kramarenko, V.; Loparco, F.; Mazziotta, M. N.; Ponomarenko, D.; Pyatiizbyantseva, D.; Radomskii, R.; Rembser, C.; Romaniouk, A.; Savchenko, A.; Shulga, E.; Smirnov, S.; Smirnov, Yu; Sosnovtsev, V.; Spinelli, P.; Teterin, P.; Tikhomirov, V.; Vorobev, K.; Zhukov, K.

2017-12-01

Measurements of hadron production in the TeV energy range are one of the tasks of the future studies at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The main goal of these experiments is a study of the fundamental QCD processes at this energy range, which is very important not only for probing of the Standard Model but also for ultrahigh-energy cosmic particle physics. One of the key elements of these experiments measurements are hadron identification. The only detector technology which has a potential ability to separate hadrons in this energy range is Transition Radiation Detector (TRD) technology. TRD prototype based on straw proportional chambers combined with a specially assembled radiator has been tested at the CERN SPS accelerator beam. The test beam results and comparison with detailed Monte Carlo simulations are presented here.

Current Status of Herbal Medicines in Chronic Liver Disease Therapy: The Biological Effects, Molecular Targets and Future Prospects

PubMed Central

Hong, Ming; Li, Sha; Tan, Hor Yue; Wang, Ning; Tsao, Sai-Wah; Feng, Yibin

2015-01-01

Chronic liver dysfunction or injury is a serious health problem worldwide. Chronic liver disease involves a wide range of liver pathologies that include fatty liver, hepatitis, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The efficiency of current synthetic agents in treating chronic liver disease is not satisfactory and they have undesirable side effects. Thereby, numerous medicinal herbs and phytochemicals have been investigated as complementary and alternative treatments for chronic liver diseases. Since some herbal products have already been used for the management of liver diseases in some countries or regions, a systematic review on these herbal medicines for chronic liver disease is urgently needed. Herein, we conducted a review describing the potential role, pharmacological studies and molecular mechanisms of several commonly used medicinal herbs and phytochemicals for chronic liver diseases treatment. Their potential toxicity and side effects were also discussed. Several herbal formulae and their biological effects in chronic liver disease treatment as well as the underlying molecular mechanisms are also summarized in this paper. This review article is a comprehensive and systematic analysis of our current knowledge of the conventional medicinal herbs and phytochemicals in treating chronic liver diseases and on the potential pitfalls which need to be addressed in future study. PMID:26633388

The Last Arctic Sea Ice Refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Newton, R.; Fowler, C.

2010-12-01

Summer sea ice may persist along the northern flank of Canada and Greenland for decades longer than the rest of the Arctic, raising the possibility of a naturally formed refugium for ice-associated species. Observations and models indicate that some ice in this region forms locally, while some is transported to the area by winds and ocean currents. Depending on future changes in melt patterns and sea ice transport rates, both the central Arctic and Siberian shelf seas may be sources of ice to the region. An international system of monitoring and management of the sea ice refuge, along with the ice source regions, has the potential to maintain viable habitat for ice-associated species, including polar bears, for decades into the future. Issues to consider in developing a strategy include: + the likely duration and extent of summer sea ice in this region based on observations, models and paleoenvironmental information + the extent and characteristics of the “ice shed” contributing sea ice to the refuge, including its dynamics, physical and biological characteristics as well as potential for contamination from local or long-range sources + likely assemblages of ice-associated species and their habitats + potential stressors such as transportation, tourism, resource extraction, contamination + policy, governance, and development issues including management strategies that could maintain the viability of the refuge.