Uncertainty and Anticipation in Anxiety

PubMed Central

Grupe, Dan W.; Nitschke, Jack B.

2014-01-01

Uncertainty about a possible future threat disrupts our ability to avoid it or to mitigate its negative impact, and thus results in anxiety. Here, we focus the broad literature on the neurobiology of anxiety through the lens of uncertainty. We identify five processes essential for adaptive anticipatory responses to future threat uncertainty, and propose that alterations to the neural instantiation of these processes results in maladaptive responses to uncertainty in pathological anxiety. This framework has the potential to advance the classification, diagnosis, and treatment of clinical anxiety. PMID:23783199

Linking Deep-Waer Prey Fields with Odontocete Population Structure and Behavior

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

potentially mitigate beaked whale responses to disturbance, providing direct input data to PCOD models for beaked whales • Leverage previous...principles of cetacean foraging ecology and responses to disturbance • Identify key prey metrics for future analyses and incorporation into PCOD

Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:23468879

Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

PubMed

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Pandolfi, John M; Connolly, Sean R; Marshall, Dustin J; Cohen, Anne L

2011-07-22

Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.

BOREAL FOREST CARBON STOCKS AND WOOD SUPPLY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND SPECIES AVAILABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

The paper assesses the role in boreal forest growth played by environment. It examines past changes in climate coupled with glaciation, and future changes in climate coupled with agricultural land use and tree species availability. The objective was to define and evaluate potenti...

Breast magnetic resonance elastography: a review of clinical work and future perspectives.

PubMed

Bohte, A E; Nelissen, J L; Runge, J H; Holub, O; Lambert, S A; de Graaf, L; Kolkman, S; van der Meij, S; Stoker, J; Strijkers, G J; Nederveen, A J; Sinkus, R

2018-05-30

This review on magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) of the breast provides an overview of available literature and describes current developments in the field of breast MRE, including new transducer technology for data acquisition and multi-frequency-derived power-law behaviour of tissue. Moreover, we discuss the future potential of breast MRE, which goes beyond its original application as an additional tool in differentiating benign from malignant breast lesions. These areas of ongoing and future research include MRE for pre-operative tumour delineation, staging, monitoring and predicting response to treatment, as well as prediction of the metastatic potential of primary tumours. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Field Experience with and Potential for Multi-time Scale Grid Transactions from Responsive Commercial Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piette, Mary Ann; Kiliccote, Sila; Ghatikar, Girish

2014-08-01

The need for and concepts behind demand response are evolving. As the electric system changes with more intermittent renewable electric supply systems, there is a need to allow buildings to provide more flexible demand. This paper presents results from field studies and pilots, as well as engineering estimates of the potential capabilities of fast load responsiveness in commercial buildings. We present a sector wide analysis of flexible loads in commercial buildings, which was conducted to improve resource planning and determine which loads to evaluate in future demonstrations. These systems provide important capabilities for future transactional systems. The field analysis ismore » based on results from California, plus projects in the northwest and east coast. End-uses considered include heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting. The timescales of control include day-ahead, as well as day-of, 10-minute ahead and even faster response. This technology can provide DR signals on different times scales to interact with responsive building loads. We describe the latency of the control systems in the building and the round trip communications with the wholesale grid operators.« less

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Identifying and Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Heritage Assets from Site to Catchment-Scale : Developing Landscape Analysis Toolkits within Geoarchaeological Frameworks.An example from the Trent catchment, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Andy; Knight, David

2016-04-01

In the UK, the devastating floods of the last few years, both summer and winter, have bought sharply into focus the changing nature of weather patterns, as well as the challenges of future flood risk management under such extreme scenarios. Inevitably, when such disasters happen, focus is often placed on individual localities or groups of built assets, as well as the development of solutions that consider contemporary and modelled future geomorphological processes. Whilst the impact of these major floods on heritage assets has gained some prominence in the media, often due to failure of historic bridges, the majority of the damage to the Historic Record goes unrecognised, since its impact is on (invisible) subsurface remains. As well as being directly affected by these flood events, identifying the character of heritage assets within river catchments has the potential to inform landscape managers of past climatic and environmental changes and human response to key geomorphic processes and events. Particularly in industrial landscapes, it also has the potential to identify the legacy of past pollution that can have significant impacts on ecosystems and future geomorphic thresholds. Clearly, whilst the historic environment record has the potential to greatly inform environmental managers, it is important that those responsible for providing such information (i.e. the archaeological community), take a holistic approach to examining landscapes within clearly identified research frameworks that provide equal weight to individual sites and more expansive terrain units. This paper provides an example of such a framework developed through a number of Historic England funded initiatives in the Trent catchment, UK, which have helped to develop toolkits to characterise geoarchaeological resources, consider their potential for informing environmental managers about past landscape change and therefore offer the potential to shape policy and societal response to future events.

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

2008-01-01

We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable...

Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California Agricultural Irrigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, Daniel; Aghajanzadeh, Arian; McKane, Aimee

Pumping water for agricultural irrigation represents a significant share of California’s annual electricity use and peak demand. It also represents a large source of potential flexibility, as farms possess a form of storage in their wetted soil. By carefully modifying their irrigation schedules, growers can participate in demand response without adverse effects on their crops. This report describes the potential for participation in demand response and automated demand response by agricultural irrigators in California, as well as barriers to widespread participation. The report first describes the magnitude, timing, location, purpose, and manner of energy use in California. Typical on-­farm controlsmore » are discussed, as well as common impediments to participation in demand response and automated demand response programs. Case studies of demand response programs in California and across the country are reviewed, and their results along with overall California demand estimates are used to estimate statewide demand response potential. Finally, recommendations are made for future research that can enhance the understanding of demand response potential in this industry.« less

Lessons Learned from Citizen Science in the Classroom. A Response to "The Future of Citizen Science."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Steven A.; Nicosia, Kristina; Jordan, Rebecca C.

2012-01-01

Mueller, Tippins, and Bryan's contrast of the current limitations of science education with the potential virtues of citizen science provides an important theoretical perspective about the future of democratized science and K-12 education. However, the authors fail to adequately address the existing barriers and constraints to moving…

A Primer on Audience Response Systems: Current Applications and Future Considerations

PubMed Central

Robinson, Evan

2008-01-01

Audience response systems (ARSs) are an increasingly popular tool in higher education for promoting interactivity, gathering feedback, preassessing knowledge, and assessing students' understanding of lecture concepts. Instructors in numerous disciplines are realizing the pedagogical value of these systems. Actual research on ARS usage within pharmacy education is sparse. In this paper, the health professions literature on uses of ARSs is reviewed and a primer on the issues, benefits, and potential uses within pharmacy education is presented. Future areas of educational research on ARS instructional strategies are also suggested. PMID:19002277

Vocational Education in the 1990s: Major Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pautler, Albert J., Jr., Ed.

This book is designed to present issues facing vocational education today and in the immediate future and to serve as a potential agenda for confronting these issues and assisting in responsible and responsive policy development, financing, research, and operation of vocational education programs in the 1990s. The 14 chapters are as follows:…

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Treesearch

Evan H Campbell Grant; Erin Muths; Rachel A Katz; Stefano Canessa; Michael J Adams; Jennifer R Ballard; Lee Berger; Cheryl J Briggs; Jeremy TH Coleman; Matthew J Gray; M Camille Harris; Reid N Harris; Blake Hossack; Kathryn P Huyvaert; Jonathan Kolby; Karen R Lips; Robert E Lovich; Hamish I McCallum; Joseph R Mendelson; Priya Nanjappa; Deanna H Olson; Jenny G Powers; Katherine LD Richgels; Robin E Russell; Benedikt R Schmidt; Annemarieke Spitzen-van der Sluijs; Mary Kay Watry; Douglas C Woodhams; C LeAnn White

2017-01-01

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts...

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Error detection and response adjustment in youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy: an event-related brain potential study.

PubMed

Hakkarainen, Elina; Pirilä, Silja; Kaartinen, Jukka; van der Meere, Jaap J

2013-06-01

This study evaluated the brain activation state during error making in youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy and a peer control group while carrying out a stimulus recognition task. The key question was whether patients were detecting their own errors and subsequently improving their performance in a future trial. Findings indicated that error responses of the group with cerebral palsy were associated with weak motor preparation, as indexed by the amplitude of the late contingent negative variation. However, patients were detecting their errors as indexed by the amplitude of the response-locked negativity and thus improved their performance in a future trial. Findings suggest that the consequence of error making on future performance is intact in a sample of youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy. Because the study group is small, the present findings need replication using a larger sample.

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

The (nano) entrepreneur's dilemma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, Andrew D.

2015-03-01

Emerging technologies need to be developed responsibly if their benefits are to outweigh any potential risks. Yet do entrepreneurs really have the luxury of grappling with future consequences from the get-go, asks Andrew D. Maynard.

2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann

California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, tomore » defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?« less

Using genomics to characterize evolutionary potential for conservation of wild populations

PubMed Central

Harrisson, Katherine A; Pavlova, Alexandra; Telonis-Scott, Marina; Sunnucks, Paul

2014-01-01

Genomics promises exciting advances towards the important conservation goal of maximizing evolutionary potential, notwithstanding associated challenges. Here, we explore some of the complexity of adaptation genetics and discuss the strengths and limitations of genomics as a tool for characterizing evolutionary potential in the context of conservation management. Many traits are polygenic and can be strongly influenced by minor differences in regulatory networks and by epigenetic variation not visible in DNA sequence. Much of this critical complexity is difficult to detect using methods commonly used to identify adaptive variation, and this needs appropriate consideration when planning genomic screens, and when basing management decisions on genomic data. When the genomic basis of adaptation and future threats are well understood, it may be appropriate to focus management on particular adaptive traits. For more typical conservations scenarios, we argue that screening genome-wide variation should be a sensible approach that may provide a generalized measure of evolutionary potential that accounts for the contributions of small-effect loci and cryptic variation and is robust to uncertainty about future change and required adaptive response(s). The best conservation outcomes should be achieved when genomic estimates of evolutionary potential are used within an adaptive management framework. PMID:25553064

Scientific millenarianism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weinberg, A.M.

Today, for the first time, scientific concerns are seriously being addressed that span future times--hundreds, even thousands, or more years in the future. One is witnessing what the author calls scientific millenarianism. Are such concerns for the distant future exercises in futility, or are they real issues that, to the everlasting gratitude of future generations, this generation has identified, warned about and even suggested how to cope with in the distant future? Can the four potential catastrophes--bolide impact, CO{sub 2} warming, radioactive wastes and thermonuclear war--be avoided by technical fixes, institutional responses, religion, or by doing nothing? These are themore » questions addressed in this paper.« less

Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.

1986-01-01

Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity.

PubMed

Kissling, W D; Field, R; Korntheuer, H; Heyder, U; Böhning-Gaese, K

2010-07-12

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant-animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

PubMed

Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

2013-08-01

Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Current Approaches, Challenges and Future Directions for Monitoring Treatment Response in Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Wallace, T.J.; Torre, T.; Grob, M.; Yu, J.; Avital, I.; Brücher, BLDM; Stojadinovic, A.; Man, Y.G.

2014-01-01

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed non-cutaneous neoplasm in men in the United States and the second leading cause of cancer mortality. One in 7 men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer during their lifetime. As a result, monitoring treatment response is of vital importance. The cornerstone of current approaches in monitoring treatment response remains the prostate-specific antigen (PSA). However, with the limitations of PSA come challenges in our ability to monitor treatment success. Defining PSA response is different depending on the individual treatment rendered potentially making it difficult for those not trained in urologic oncology to understand. Furthermore, standard treatment response criteria do not apply to prostate cancer further complicating the issue of treatment response. Historically, prostate cancer has been difficult to image and no single modality has been consistently relied upon to measure treatment response. However, with newer imaging modalities and advances in our understanding and utilization of specific biomarkers, the future for monitoring treatment response in prostate cancer looks bright. PMID:24396494

High School Seniors' Preferences for Sharing Work and Family Responsibilities between Husband and Wife. Monitoring the Future. Occasional Paper Series, Paper 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herzog, A. Regula; And Others

In order to describe in detail adolescents' preferences for the division of labor between husband and wife, including the flexibility inherent in the various alternatives, to assess changes in these preferences over recent years, and to explore potential correlates, data from the Monitoring the Future Survey, a large annual survey of high school…

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

Treesearch

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; F.S. III Chapin; S. Yi; C.C. Thompson

2009-01-01

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in...

Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kandlbauer, Jessy; Valdes, Paul J.; Sparks, R. Stephen J.

2017-11-01

Volcanic eruptions are an important influence on decadal to centennial climate variability. Large eruptions lead to the formation of a stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer which can cause short-term global cooling. This response is modulated by feedback processes in the earth system, but the influence from future warming has not been assessed before. Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties. The increased albedo of the troposphere reduces the effective volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. Reduced sea-ice coverage and hence feedbacks also contribute over high-latitudes, and an enhanced winter warming signal emerges in the future eruption ensemble. These findings show that the eruption response is a complex function of the environmental conditions, which has implications for the role of eruptions in climate variability in the future and potentially in the past.

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

Psychological Pathways Linking Social Support to Health Outcomes: A Visit with the “Ghosts” of Research Past, Present, and Future

PubMed Central

Uchino, Bert N.; Bowen, Kimberly; Carlisle, McKenzie; Birmingham, Wendy

2012-01-01

Contemporary models postulate the importance of psychological mechanisms linking perceived and received social support to physical health outcomes. In this review, we examine studies that directly tested the potential psychological mechanisms responsible for links between social support and health-relevant physiological processes (1980s to 2010). Inconsistent with existing theoretical models, no evidence was found that psychological mechanisms such as depression, perceived stress, and other affective processes are directly responsible for links between support and health. We discuss the importance of considering statistical/design issues, emerging conceptual perspectives, and limitations of our existing models for future research aimed at elucidating the psychological mechanisms responsible for links between social support and physical health outcomes. PMID:22326104

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Bronzan, J.; Rodehorst, B.; Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Savonis, M.; Wiles, R.

2015-12-01

Many states are already experiencing the costly impacts of extreme climate and weather events. The occurrence, frequency and intensity of these events may change under future climates. Preparing for these changes takes time, and state government agencies and communities need to recognize the risks they could potentially face and the response actions already undertaken. The States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card project is the first-ever study that quantifies five climate-change-driven hazards, and the relevant state government response actions in each of the 50 states. The changing characteristics of extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland and coastal flooding were assessed for the baseline period (around year 2000) through the years 2030 and 2050 across all 50 states. Bias-corrected statistically-downscaled (BCSD) climate projections (Reclamation, 2013) and hydrology projections (Reclamation, 2014) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 were used. The climate change response action analysis covers five critical sectors: Transportation, Energy, Water, Human Health and Communities. It examined whether there is evidence that the state is taking action to (1) reduce current risks, (2) raise its awareness of future risks, (3) plan for adaptation to the future risks, and (4) implement specific actions to reduce future risks for each applicable hazards. Results from the two analyses were aggregated and translated into a rating system that standardizes assessments across states, which can be easily understood by both technical and non-technical audiences. The findings in this study not only serve as a screening tool for states to recognize the hazards they could potentially face as climate changes, but also serve as a roadmap for states to address the gaps in response actions, and to improve climate preparedness and resilience.

The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Klaus; McInerney, David

2008-02-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may trigger threshold responses of the climate system. One relevant example of such a potential threshold response is a shutdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies have analyzed the problem of early MOC change detection (i.e., detection before the forcing has committed the system to a threshold response). Here we analyze the early MOC prediction problem. To this end, we virtually deploy an MOC observation system into a simple model that mimics potential future MOC responses and analyze the timing of confident detection and prediction. Our analysis suggests that a confident prediction of a potential threshold response can require century time scales, considerably longer that the time required for confident detection. The signal enabling early prediction of an approaching MOC threshold in our model study is associated with the rate at which the MOC intensity decreases for a given forcing. A faster MOC weakening implies a higher MOC sensitivity to forcing. An MOC sensitivity exceeding a critical level results in a threshold response. Determining whether an observed MOC trend in our model differs in a statistically significant way from an unforced scenario (the detection problem) imposes lower requirements on an observation system than the determination whether the MOC will shut down in the future (the prediction problem). As a result, the virtual observation systems designed in our model for early detection of MOC changes might well fail at the task of early and confident prediction. Transferring this conclusion to the real world requires a considerably refined MOC model, as well as a more complete consideration of relevant observational constraints.

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

2006-04-15

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Micro-RNAs as Potential Predictors of Response to Breast Cancer Systemic Therapy: Future Clinical Implications

PubMed Central

Campos-Parra, Alma D.; Cuamani Mitznahuatl, Gerardo; Pedroza-Torres, Abraham; Vázquez Romo, Rafael; Porras Reyes, Fany Iris; López-Urrutia, Eduardo; Pérez-Plasencia, Carlos

2017-01-01

Despite advances in diagnosis and new treatments such as targeted therapies, breast cancer (BC) is still the most prevalent tumor in women worldwide and the leading cause of death. The principal obstacle for successful BC treatment is the acquired or de novo resistance of the tumors to the systemic therapy (chemotherapy, endocrine, and targeted therapies) that patients receive. In the era of personalized treatment, several studies have focused on the search for biomarkers capable of predicting the response to this therapy; microRNAs (miRNAs) stand out among these markers due to their broad spectrum or potential clinical applications. miRNAs are conserved small non-coding RNAs that act as negative regulators of gene expression playing an important role in several cellular processes, such as cell proliferation, autophagy, genomic stability, and apoptosis. We reviewed recent data that describe the role of miRNAs as potential predictors of response to systemic treatments in BC. Furthermore, upon analyzing the collected published information, we noticed that the overexpression of miR-155, miR-222, miR-125b, and miR-21 predicts the resistance to the most common systemic treatments; nonetheless, the function of these particular miRNAs must be carefully studied and further analyses are still necessary to increase knowledge about their role and future potential clinical uses in BC. PMID:28574440

Potential sources of variability in mesocosm experiments on the response of phytoplankton to ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno de Castro, Maria; Schartau, Markus; Wirtz, Kai

2017-04-01

Mesocosm experiments on phytoplankton dynamics under high CO2 concentrations mimic the response of marine primary producers to future ocean acidification. However, potential acidification effects can be hindered by the high standard deviation typically found in the replicates of the same CO2 treatment level. In experiments with multiple unresolved factors and a sub-optimal number of replicates, post-processing statistical inference tools might fail to detect an effect that is present. We propose that in such cases, data-based model analyses might be suitable tools to unearth potential responses to the treatment and identify the uncertainties that could produce the observed variability. As test cases, we used data from two independent mesocosm experiments. Both experiments showed high standard deviations and, according to statistical inference tools, biomass appeared insensitive to changing CO2 conditions. Conversely, our simulations showed earlier and more intense phytoplankton blooms in modeled replicates at high CO2 concentrations and suggested that uncertainties in average cell size, phytoplankton biomass losses, and initial nutrient concentration potentially outweigh acidification effects by triggering strong variability during the bloom phase. We also estimated the thresholds below which uncertainties do not escalate to high variability. This information might help in designing future mesocosm experiments and interpreting controversial results on the effect of acidification or other pressures on ecosystem functions.

Micro-RNAs as Potential Predictors of Response to Breast Cancer Systemic Therapy: Future Clinical Implications.

PubMed

Campos-Parra, Alma D; Mitznahuatl, Gerardo Cuamani; Pedroza-Torres, Abraham; Romo, Rafael Vázquez; Reyes, Fany Iris Porras; López-Urrutia, Eduardo; Pérez-Plasencia, Carlos

2017-06-02

Despite advances in diagnosis and new treatments such as targeted therapies, breast cancer (BC) is still the most prevalent tumor in women worldwide and the leading cause of death. The principal obstacle for successful BC treatment is the acquired or de novo resistance of the tumors to the systemic therapy (chemotherapy, endocrine, and targeted therapies) that patients receive. In the era of personalized treatment, several studies have focused on the search for biomarkers capable of predicting the response to this therapy; microRNAs (miRNAs) stand out among these markers due to their broad spectrum or potential clinical applications. miRNAs are conserved small non-coding RNAs that act as negative regulators of gene expression playing an important role in several cellular processes, such as cell proliferation, autophagy, genomic stability, and apoptosis. We reviewed recent data that describe the role of miRNAs as potential predictors of response to systemic treatments in BC. Furthermore, upon analyzing the collected published information, we noticed that the overexpression of miR-155, miR-222, miR-125b, and miR-21 predicts the resistance to the most common systemic treatments; nonetheless, the function of these particular miRNAs must be carefully studied and further analyses are still necessary to increase knowledge about their role and future potential clinical uses in BC.

miRNAs as potential therapeutic targets for age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Wang, Shusheng; Koster, Kyle M; He, Yuguang; Zhou, Qinbo

2012-03-01

Since their recent discovery, miRNAs have been shown to play critical roles in a variety of pathophysiological processes. Such processes include pathological angiogenesis, the oxidative stress response, immune response and inflammation, all of which have been shown to have important and interdependent roles in the pathogenesis and progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Here we present a brief review of the pathological processes involved in AMD and review miRNAs and other noncoding RNAs involved in regulating these processes. Specifically, we discuss several candidate miRNAs that show promise as AMD therapeutic targets due to their direct involvement in choroidal neovascularization or retinal pigment epithelium atrophy. We discuss potential miRNA-based therapeutics and delivery methods for AMD and provide future directions for the field of miRNA research with respect to AMD. We believe the future of miRNAs in AMD therapy is promising.

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.

PubMed

Maguire, Kaitlin C; Shinneman, Douglas J; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

2018-03-14

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

2018-01-01

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Technology Teacher Education: Alternative Pathways Established in Response to Issues of Supply and Demand in NSW

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornius-Randall, Rachael

2004-01-01

Teacher shortages have encouraged initiatives to tailor training programs to meet the demand in both past, current and future contexts. Such programs have been streamlined to ensure a rapid response to shortages, in addition to also drawing participants from non-traditional groups as a source of potential educators. Within teacher education,…

A Comparison of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Methods for Process Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cios, Krzysztof J.; Sala, Dorel M.; Berke, Laszlo

1996-01-01

The goal of this work was to analyze the potential of neural networks and fuzzy logic methods to develop approximate response surfaces as process modeling, that is for mapping of input into output. Structural response was chosen as an example. Each of the many methods surveyed are explained and the results are presented. Future research directions are also discussed.

Identifying traits for genotypic adaptation using crop models.

PubMed

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J

2015-06-01

Genotypic adaptation involves the incorporation of novel traits in crop varieties so as to enhance food productivity and stability and is expected to be one of the most important adaptation strategies to future climate change. Simulation modelling can provide the basis for evaluating the biophysical potential of crop traits for genotypic adaptation. This review focuses on the use of models for assessing the potential benefits of genotypic adaptation as a response strategy to projected climate change impacts. Some key crop responses to the environment, as well as the role of models and model ensembles for assessing impacts and adaptation, are first reviewed. Next, the review describes crop-climate models can help focus the development of future-adapted crop germplasm in breeding programmes. While recently published modelling studies have demonstrated the potential of genotypic adaptation strategies and ideotype design, it is argued that, for model-based studies of genotypic adaptation to be used in crop breeding, it is critical that modelled traits are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. To this aim, two main goals need to be pursued in future studies: (i) a better understanding of plant processes that limit productivity under future climate change; and (ii) a coupling between genetic and crop growth models-perhaps at the expense of the number of traits analysed. Importantly, the latter may imply additional complexity (and likely uncertainty) in crop modelling studies. Hence, appropriately constraining processes and parameters in models and a shift from simply quantifying uncertainty to actually quantifying robustness towards modelling choices are two key aspects that need to be included into future crop model-based analyses of genotypic adaptation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100, implying that physically plausible upper limits on future sea-level rise might need to be reconsidered.

Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

2007-01-01

Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold state (e.g., dramatic change in barrier evolution, such as segmentation or disintegration) for some barrier island systems. The likelihood of the potential coastal responses is expressed using standard terminology employed in climate change assessments (e.g., as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and CCSP). This assessment was based on the coastal geomorphology in its present condition and does not consider any coastal protection that might be undertaken in the future. The committee recognized that a variety of erosion mitigation measures have been implemented along developed portions of the coast and these are very likely to be applied in the future. It was also acknowledged that economics, political will, and other factors can drive decisions to implement these measures, and that such decisions cannot be predicted with confidence. The results of this assessment are depicted graphically on maps of the study area.

Sudden oak death-caused changes to surface fuel loading and potential fire behavior in Douglas-fir-tanoak forests

Treesearch

Y.S. Valachovic; C.A. Lee; H. Scanlon; J.M. Varner; R. Glebocki; B.D. Graham; D.M. Rizzo

2011-01-01

We compared stand structure and fuel loading in northwestern California forests invaded by Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death, to assess whether the continued presence of this pathogen alters surface fuel loading and potential fire behavior in ways that may encumber future firefighting response. To attempt to account for these...

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

PubMed

Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

2017-10-31

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

PubMed Central

Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

2017-01-01

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere. PMID:29078312

Gene Expression Dynamics Accompanying the Sponge Thermal Stress Response.

PubMed

Guzman, Christine; Conaco, Cecilia

2016-01-01

Marine sponges are important members of coral reef ecosystems. Thus, their responses to changes in ocean chemistry and environmental conditions, particularly to higher seawater temperatures, will have potential impacts on the future of these reefs. To better understand the sponge thermal stress response, we investigated gene expression dynamics in the shallow water sponge, Haliclona tubifera (order Haplosclerida, class Demospongiae), subjected to elevated temperature. Using high-throughput transcriptome sequencing, we show that these conditions result in the activation of various processes that interact to maintain cellular homeostasis. Short-term thermal stress resulted in the induction of heat shock proteins, antioxidants, and genes involved in signal transduction and innate immunity pathways. Prolonged exposure to thermal stress affected the expression of genes involved in cellular damage repair, apoptosis, signaling and transcription. Interestingly, exposure to sublethal temperatures may improve the ability of the sponge to mitigate cellular damage under more extreme stress conditions. These insights into the potential mechanisms of adaptation and resilience of sponges contribute to a better understanding of sponge conservation status and the prediction of ecosystem trajectories under future climate conditions.

Scenario planning.

PubMed

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. Copyright © 2011 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Natural and Human-Induced Variability in Barrier-Island Response to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-12-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-01-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Exercise, Affect, and Adherence: An Integrated Model and a Case for Self-Paced Exercise

PubMed Central

Williams, David M.

2014-01-01

This paper reviews research relevant to a proposed conceptual model of exercise adherence that integrates the dual mode model and hedonic theory. Exercise intensity is posited to influence affective response to exercise via interoceptive (e.g., ventilatory drive) and cognitive (e.g., perceived autonomy) pathways; affective response to exercise is posited to influence exercise adherence via anticipated affective response to future exercise. The potential for self-paced exercise to enhance exercise adherence is examined in the context of the proposed model and suggestions are given for future research. Further evidence in support of self-paced exercise could have implications for exercise prescription, especially among overweight, sedentary adults, who are most in need of interventions that enhance adherence to exercise programs. PMID:18971508

The potential for technology in brief interventions for substance use, and during-session prediction of computer-delivered brief intervention response.

PubMed

Ondersma, Steven J; Grekin, Emily R; Svikis, Dace

2011-01-01

We first provide an overview of the potential of technology in the area of brief interventions for substance use and describe recent projects from our lab that are illustrative of that potential. Second, we present data from a study of during-session predictors of brief intervention response. In a sample of postpartum women (N = 39), several variables showed promise as predictors of later drug use, and a brief index derived from them predicted abstinence with a sensitivity of .7 and a specificity of .89. This promising approach and initial study findings support the importance of future research in this area.

Fish: Section 4.8 in Climate change and the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary: Interpreting potential futures.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, Steve P.; Miller, Ian M.; Shishido, Caitlin; Antrim, Liam; Bowlby, C. Edward

2013-01-01

Response of benthic fish in the OCNMS to future increases in hypoxia will likely be similar to those for fish off the central Oregon coast where hypoxia developed each summer starting in 2002. Abundance and condition of fish will decline in hypoxic areas. Fish will move inshore seeking higher oxygen concentrations. Species adapted to low oxygen environments, for example Dover sole, will be less affected.

A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kicklighter, D.W.; Bruno, M.; Donges, S.; Esser, G.; Heimann, Martin; Helfrich, J.; Ift, F.; Joos, F.; Kaduk, J.; Kohlmaier, G.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Meyer, R.; Moore, B.; Nadler, A.; Prentice, I.C.; Sauf, W.; Schloss, A.L.; Sitch, S.; Wittenberg, U.; Wurth, G.

1999-01-01

We compared the simulated responses of net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem production and carbon storage in natural terrestrial ecosystems to historical (1765 to 1990) and projected (1990 to 2300) changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration of four terrestrial biosphere models: the Bern model, the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM), the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The results of the model intercomparison suggest that CO2 fertilization of natural terrestrial vegetation has the potential to account for a large fraction of the so-called 'missing carbon sink' of 2.0 Pg C in 1990. Estimates of this potential are reduced when the models incorporate the concept that CO2 fertilization can be limited by nutrient availability. Although the model estimates differ on the potential size (126 to 461 Pg C) of the future terrestrial sink caused by CO2 fertilization, the results of the four models suggest that natural terrestrial ecosystems will have a limited capacity to act as a sink of atmospheric CO2 in the future as a result of physiological constraints and nutrient constraints on NPP. All the spatially explicit models estimate a carbon sink in both tropical and northern temperate regions, but the strength of these sinks varies over time. Differences in the simulated response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization among the models in this intercomparison study reflect the fact that the models have highlighted different aspects of the effect of CO2 fertilization on carbon dynamics of natural terrestrial ecosystems including feedback mechanisms. As interactions with nitrogen fertilization, climate change and forest regrowth may play an important role in simulating the response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization, these factors should be included in future analyses. Improvements in spatially explicit data sets, whole-ecosystems experiments and the availability of net carbon exchange measurements across the globe will also help to improve future evaluations of the role of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial carbon storage.

Educating toward the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallin, Alice, Ed.; Gallagher, Paul J., Ed.

1989-01-01

The following articles are presented: (1) "Introduction"--background regarding the Catholic Church's response to the educational needs of the Hispanic population (Paul J. Gallagher); (2) "Hispanics and the Neylan Colleges: The Potential and the Challenge" (Jane Forni); (3) "Minority Recruitment: Good Sense, Not Good…

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources, however the potential economic implications of these needs have not been ...

Transcriptomic response of sea urchin larvae Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to CO2-driven seawater acidification.

PubMed

Todgham, Anne E; Hofmann, Gretchen E

2009-08-01

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic CO(2) is expected to have deleterious consequences for many calcifying marine animals. Forecasting the vulnerability of these marine organisms to climate change is linked to an understanding of whether species possess the physiological capacity to compensate for the potentially adverse effects of ocean acidification. We carried out a microarray-based transcriptomic analysis of the physiological response of larvae of a calcifying marine invertebrate, the purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, to CO(2)-driven seawater acidification. In lab-based cultures, larvae were raised under conditions approximating current ocean pH conditions (pH 8.01) and at projected, more acidic pH conditions (pH 7.96 and 7.88) in seawater aerated with CO(2) gas. Targeting expression of approximately 1000 genes involved in several biological processes, this study captured changes in gene expression patterns that characterize the transcriptomic response to CO(2)-driven seawater acidification of developing sea urchin larvae. In response to both elevated CO(2) scenarios, larvae underwent broad scale decreases in gene expression in four major cellular processes: biomineralization, cellular stress response, metabolism and apoptosis. This study underscores that physiological processes beyond calcification are impacted greatly, suggesting that overall physiological capacity and not just a singular focus on biomineralization processes is essential for forecasting the impact of future CO(2) conditions on marine organisms. Conducted on targeted and vulnerable species, genomics-based studies, such as the one highlighted here, have the potential to identify potential ;weak links' in physiological function that may ultimately determine an organism's capacity to tolerate future ocean conditions.

Fire and amphibians in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, D.S.; Bury, R.B.; Hyde, E.J.; Pearl, C.A.; Corn, P.S.

2003-01-01

Information on amphibian responses to fire and fuel reduction practices is critically needed due to potential declines of species and the prevalence of new, more intensive fire management practices in North American forests. The goals of this review are to summarize the known and potential effects of fire and fuels management on amphibians and their aquatic habitats, and to identify information gaps to help direct future scientific research. Amphibians as a group are taxonomically and ecologically diverse; in turn, responses to fire and associated habitat alteration are expected to vary widely among species and among geographic regions. Available data suggest that amphibian responses to fire are spatially and temporally variable and incompletely understood. Much of the limited research has addressed short-term (1–3 years) effects of prescribed fire on terrestrial life stages of amphibians in the southeastern United States. Information on the long-term negative effects of fire on amphibians and the importance of fire for maintaining amphibian communities is sparse for the majority of taxa in North America. Given the size and severity of recent wildland fires and the national effort to reduce fuels on federal lands, future studies are needed to examine the effects of these landscape disturbances on amphibians. We encourage studies to address population-level responses of amphibians to fire by examining how different life stages are affected by changes in aquatic, riparian, and upland habitats. Research designs need to be credible and provide information that is relevant for fire managers and those responsible for assessing the potential effects of various fuel reduction alternatives on rare, sensitive, and endangered amphibian species.

Using genetic algorithms to optimise current and future health planning--the example of ambulance locations.

PubMed

Sasaki, Satoshi; Comber, Alexis J; Suzuki, Hiroshi; Brunsdon, Chris

2010-01-28

Ambulance response time is a crucial factor in patient survival. The number of emergency cases (EMS cases) requiring an ambulance is increasing due to changes in population demographics. This is decreasing ambulance response times to the emergency scene. This paper predicts EMS cases for 5-year intervals from 2020, to 2050 by correlating current EMS cases with demographic factors at the level of the census area and predicted population changes. It then applies a modified grouping genetic algorithm to compare current and future optimal locations and numbers of ambulances. Sets of potential locations were evaluated in terms of the (current and predicted) EMS case distances to those locations. Future EMS demands were predicted to increase by 2030 using the model (R2 = 0.71). The optimal locations of ambulances based on future EMS cases were compared with current locations and with optimal locations modelled on current EMS case data. Optimising the location of ambulance stations locations reduced the average response times by 57 seconds. Current and predicted future EMS demand at modelled locations were calculated and compared. The reallocation of ambulances to optimal locations improved response times and could contribute to higher survival rates from life-threatening medical events. Modelling EMS case 'demand' over census areas allows the data to be correlated to population characteristics and optimal 'supply' locations to be identified. Comparing current and future optimal scenarios allows more nuanced planning decisions to be made. This is a generic methodology that could be used to provide evidence in support of public health planning and decision making.

Snowmelt-Driven Trade-Offs Between Early and Late Season Productivity Negatively Impact Forest Carbon Uptake During Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, John F.; Molotch, Noah P.; Trujillo, Ernesto; Litvak, Marcy E.

2018-04-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally with unknown implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity. Accordingly, this study combined satellite- and tower-based observations to investigate the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, United States. Our results show that early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related and that future shifts toward earlier and/or reduced snowmelt could decrease snowmelt water use efficiency and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This was explained by increasing snow aridity, which incorporated evaporative demand and snow water supply, and was modified by summer precipitation to determine total annual productivity. The combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34 year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions.

Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions.

PubMed

Putnam, Hollie M; Gates, Ruth D

2015-08-01

Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm P(CO2)) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm P(CO2)) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Modeling potential hydrochemical responses to climate change and rising CO2 at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest using a dynamic biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC)

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe

2012-01-01

Dynamic hydrochemical models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the interactive effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2, and atmospheric deposition on the hydrology and water quality of forested watersheds. We used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to evaluate the effects of potential future changes in temperature,...

Scientific charge-coupled devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janesick, James R.; Elliott, Tom; Collins, Stewart; Blouke, Morley M.; Freeman, Jack

1987-01-01

The charge-coupled device dominates an ever-increasing variety of scientific imaging and spectroscopy applications. Recent experience indicates, however, that the full potential of CCD performance lies well beyond that realized in devices currently available.Test data suggest that major improvements are feasible in spectral response, charge collection, charge transfer, and readout noise. These properties, their measurement in existing CCDs, and their potential for future improvement are discussed in this paper.

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Environmental and medical geochemistry in urban disaster response and preparedness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Morman, Suzette A.; Cook, A.

2012-01-01

History abounds with accounts of cities that were destroyed or significantly damaged by natural or anthropogenic disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildland–urban wildfires, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, urban firestorms, terrorist attacks, and armed conflicts. Burgeoning megacities place ever more people in the way of harm from future disasters. In addition to the physical damage, casualties, and injuries they cause, sudden urban disasters can also release into the environment large volumes of potentially hazardous materials. Environmental and medical geochemistry investigations help us to (1) understand the sources and environmental behavior of disaster materials, (2) assess potential threats the materials pose to the urban environment and health of urban populations, (3) develop strategies for their cleanup/disposal, and (4) anticipate and mitigate potential environmental and health effects from future urban disasters.

Survey Evidence on the Willingness of U.S. Consumers to Pay for Automotive Fuel Economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greene, David L; Evans, David H; Hiestand, John

2013-01-01

Prospect theory, which was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, holds that human beings faced with a risky bet will tend to value potential losses about twice as much as potential gains. Previous research has demonstrated that prospect theory could be sufficient to explain an energy paradox in the market for automotive fuel economy. This paper analyzes data from four random sample surveys of 1,000 U.S. households each in 2004, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Households were asked about willingness to pay for future fuel savings as well as the annual fuel savings necessary to justify a given upfrontmore » payment. Payback periods inferred from household responses are consistent over time and across different formulations of questions. Mean calculated payback periods are short, about 3 years, but there is substantial dispersion among individual responses. Calculated payback periods do not appear to be correlated with the attributes of respondents. Respondents were able to quantitatively describe their uncertainty about both vehicle fuel economy and future fuel prices. Simulation of loss averse behavior based on this stated uncertainty illustrate how loss aversion could lead consumers to substantially undervalue future fuel savings relative to their expected value.« less

Human Mars Mission Overview and Dust Storm Impacts on Site Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, S. J.

2017-01-01

NASA has begun a process to identify and discuss candidate locations where humans could land, live and work on the martian surface. This process is being carried out as a cooperative effort by NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD), responsible for future human mission preparations, and the Science Mission Directorate (SMD), responsible for the on-going Mars Exploration Program of robotic vehicles in orbit and on the surface of Mars. Both of these Directorates have a significant interest in this process, as these candidate locations will be used by NASA as part of a multi-year effort to determine where and how humans could explore Mars. In the near term this process includes: (a) identifying locations that would maximize the potential science return from future human exploration missions, (b) identifying locations with the potential for resources required to support humans, (c) developing concepts and engineering systems needed by future human crews to conduct operations within a candidate location, and (d) identifying key characteristics of the proposed candidate locations that cannot be evaluated using existing data sets, thus helping to define precursor measurements needed in advance of human missions.

Severity of killer whale behavioral responses to ship noise: a dose-response study.

PubMed

Williams, Rob; Erbe, Christine; Ashe, Erin; Beerman, Amber; Smith, Jodi

2014-02-15

Critical habitats of at-risk populations of northeast Pacific "resident" killer whales can be heavily trafficked by large ships, with transits occurring on average once every hour in busy shipping lanes. We modeled behavioral responses of killer whales to ship transits during 35 "natural experiments" as a dose-response function of estimated received noise levels in both broadband and audiogram-weighted terms. Interpreting effects is contingent on a subjective and seemingly arbitrary decision about severity threshold indicating a response. Subtle responses were observed around broadband received levels of 130 dB re 1 μPa (rms); more severe responses are hypothesized to occur at received levels beyond 150 dB re 1 μPa, where our study lacked data. Avoidance responses are expected to carry minor energetic costs in terms of increased energy expenditure, but future research must assess the potential for reduced prey acquisition, and potential population consequences, under these noise levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolomics: available results, current research projects in breast cancer, and future applications.

PubMed

Claudino, Wederson Marcos; Quattrone, Alessandro; Biganzoli, Laura; Pestrin, Marta; Bertini, Ivano; Di Leo, Angelo

2007-07-01

Metabolomics is the newest "omics" science. It is a dynamic portrait of the metabolic status of living systems. Metabolomics has brought new insights on metabolic fluxes and a more comprehensive and holistic understanding of a cell's environment. This burgeoning field promises to be a potential tool to fill the gap between genotype and phenotype. As its preceding "omics" sciences (ie, genomics and proteomics), metabolomics' aim is to dredge information hidden in a sea of data. This technology permits simultaneous monitoring of many hundreds, or thousands, of macro- and small molecules, as well as functional monitoring of multiple pivotal cellular pathways. In addition, elucidation of cellular responses to molecular damage, including evolutionarily conserved inducible molecular defense systems, could be achieved with metabolomics and could lead to the discovery of new biomarkers of molecular responses to functional perturbations. If metabolomic information could be translated into diagnostic tests, it might have the potential to impact on clinical practice, and it might lead to the supplementation of traditional biomarkers of cellular integrity, cell and tissue homeostasis, and morphological alterations that result from cell damage or death. In this review the concept and characteristics of metabolomics are introduced. Main current applications of metabolomics in cancer research are reviewed, including its potential in the drug discovery field, and, last but not least, its potential impact in the field of monitoring response and toxicity to anticancer agents. In the last section, research projects ongoing at our institution and future challenges for metabolomics will be presented and briefly discussed.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Opportunities for Automated Demand Response in California’s Dairy Processing Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Homan, Gregory K.; Aghajanzadeh, Arian; McKane, Aimee

During periods of peak electrical demand on the energy grid or when there is a shortage of supply, the stability of the grid may be compromised or the cost of supplying electricity may rise dramatically, respectively. Demand response programs are designed to mitigate the severity of these problems and improve reliability by reducing the demand on the grid during such critical times. In 2010, the Demand Response Research Center convened a group of industry experts to suggest potential industries that would be good demand response program candidates for further review. The dairy industry was suggested due to the perception thatmore » the industry had suitable flexibility and automatic controls in place. The purpose of this report is to provide an initial description of the industry with regard to demand response potential, specifically automated demand response. This report qualitatively describes the potential for participation in demand response and automated demand response by dairy processing facilities in California, as well as barriers to widespread participation. The report first describes the magnitude, timing, location, purpose, and manner of energy use. Typical process equipment and controls are discussed, as well as common impediments to participation in demand response and automated demand response programs. Two case studies of demand response at dairy facilities in California and across the country are reviewed. Finally, recommendations are made for future research that can enhance the understanding of demand response potential in this industry.« less

Enhancing 'Whole-of-Government' Response to Biological Events in Korea: Able Response 2014.

PubMed

Tak, Sangwoo; Jareb, Anton; Choi, Suon; Sikes, Marvin; Choi, Yeon Hwa; Boo, Hyeong-Wook

2018-01-01

Since 2011, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and United States (U.S.) have been collaborating to conduct inter- and intra-governmental exercises to jointly respond to biological events in Korea. These exercises highlight U.S. interest in increasing its global biosurveillance capability and the ROK's interest in improving cooperation among ministries to respond to crises. With Able Response (AR) exercises, the ROK and U.S. have improved coordination among US and ROK government and defense agencies responding to potential bio-threats and identified additional areas on which to apply refinements in policies and practices. In 2014, the AR exercise employed a Biosurveillance Portal (BSP) to facilitate more effective communication among participating agencies and countries including Australia. In the present paper, we seek to provide a comprehensive assessment of the AR 2014 (AR14) exercise and make recommendations for future improvements. Incorporating a more realistic response in future scenarios by integrating a tactical response episode in the exercise is recommended.

Enhancing ‘Whole-of-Government’ Response to Biological Events in Korea: Able Response 2014

PubMed Central

Tak, Sangwoo; Jareb, Anton; Choi, Suon; Sikes, Marvin; Choi, Yeon Hwa; Boo, Hyeong-wook

2018-01-01

Since 2011, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and United States (U.S.) have been collaborating to conduct inter- and intra-governmental exercises to jointly respond to biological events in Korea. These exercises highlight U.S. interest in increasing its global biosurveillance capability and the ROK’s interest in improving cooperation among ministries to respond to crises. With Able Response (AR) exercises, the ROK and U.S. have improved coordination among US and ROK government and defense agencies responding to potential bio-threats and identified additional areas on which to apply refinements in policies and practices. In 2014, the AR exercise employed a Biosurveillance Portal (BSP) to facilitate more effective communication among participating agencies and countries including Australia. In the present paper, we seek to provide a comprehensive assessment of the AR 2014 (AR14) exercise and make recommendations for future improvements. Incorporating a more realistic response in future scenarios by integrating a tactical response episode in the exercise is recommended. PMID:29503803

Subjective response as a consideration in the pharmacogenetics of alcoholism treatment.

PubMed

Roche, Daniel Jo; Ray, Lara A

2015-01-01

Currently available pharmacological treatments for alcoholism have modest efficacy and high individual variability in treatment outcomes, both of which have been partially attributed to genetic factors. One path to reducing the variability and improving the efficacy associated with these pharmacotherapies may be to identify overlapping genetic contributions to individual differences in both subjective responses to alcohol and alcoholism pharmacotherapy outcomes. As acute subjective response to alcohol is highly predictive of future alcohol related problems, identifying such shared genetic mechanisms may inform the development of personalized treatments that can effectively target converging pathophysiological mechanisms that convey risk for alcoholism. The focus of this review is to revisit the association between subjective response to alcohol and the etiology of alcoholism while also describing genetic contributions to this relationship, discuss potential pharmacogenetic approaches to target subjective response to alcohol in order to improve the treatment of alcoholism and examine conceptual and methodological issues associated with these topics, and outline future approaches to overcome these challenges.

Counseling Women for Responsibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koontz, Elizabeth Duncan

1970-01-01

This article stresses the need for those counseling young women today to be aware of thechanges taking place in career possibilities. Counselors must combine their insights with client potential to form a solid combination which will serve as a guide for a young woman's future. (Author/CJ)

Potential roles of past, present, and future urbanization characteristics in producing varied stream responses

EPA Science Inventory

Urban wastewater and stormwater management practices are one of the primary pathways through which urbanization degrades streams. In particular the long-term development and management phases create a complex spatiotemporal layering of infrastructure technologies. These phases re...

Department of Homeland Security national planning scenarios: a spectrum of imaging findings to educate the radiologists.

PubMed

Burch, Heather; Kitley, Charles A; Naeem, Mohammed

2010-07-01

Following the events of the September 11th attack, there has been an increasing concern about the possibility of a future attack on our homeland. In response, the United States Department of Homeland Defense has planned for a future attack by formulating multiple scenarios which may occur in the event of such a disaster. Radiology will play a key role in each of these scenarios, assisting with triage, diagnosis, and therapy of the large populations which potentially could be involved. This article describes some of these scenarios as well the response which will be expected of the radiology community in the event of such a disaster.

Occupational Stigma Communication: The Anticipatory Socialization of Sex Educators.

PubMed

Selzer King, Abigail; Jensen, Robin E; Jones, Christina; McCarthy, Michael J

2017-08-21

Controversies about sex education have complex, yet often overlooked, occupational implications related to stigma for teachers. In this study, we interviewed 26 future sex educators in their last year of certification about how their anticipatory socialization experiences spoke to the management of potential occupational stigma. Our analysis revealed two stigma management communication (SMC) strategies future sex educators learned, strategies we term cooperation and opportunism, and identified the ways in which those strategies were responses to stigma content cues of responsibility and peril, respectively. We contend that the interactivity of stigma communication is an important site for the theorizing of as-yet-unidentified SMC strategies, strategies that can be enlisted in a diversity of health education and healthcare contexts.

Preparing ICUs for pandemics.

PubMed

Gabriel, Lucinda E K; Webb, Steve A R

2013-10-01

Influenza pandemics occur intermittently and represent an existential global infectious diseases threat. The purpose of this review is to describe clinical and research preparedness for future pandemics. Pandemic influenza typically results in large numbers of individuals with life-threatening pneumonia requiring treatment in ICUs. Clinical preparedness of ICUs relates to planning to provide increased 'surge' capacity to meet increased demand and requires consideration of staffing, equipment and consumables, bed-space availability and management systems. Research preparedness is also necessary, as timely clinical research has the potential to change the trajectory of a pandemic. The clinical research response during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic was suboptimal. Better planning is necessary to optimize both clinical and research responses to future pandemics.

Future Roles for Autonomous Vertical Lift in Disaster Relief and Emergency Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Larry A.

2006-01-01

System analysis concepts are applied to the assessment of potential collaborative contributions of autonomous system and vertical lift (a.k.a. rotorcraft, VTOL, powered-lift, etc.) technologies to the important, and perhaps underemphasized, application domain of disaster relief and emergency response. In particular, an analytic framework is outlined whereby system design functional requirements for an application domain can be derived from defined societal good goals and objectives.

Identification of an immunodominant region of Fel d 1 and characterization of constituent epitopes.

PubMed

Bateman, E A L; Ardern-Jones, M R; Ogg, G S

2008-11-01

Characterization of T cell epitopes restricted by common HLA alleles is a powerful tool in the understanding of the immune responses to allergens and for the identification of potential peptides for future peptide immunotherapy (PIT). One important requirement is the identification and use of peptides that will bind to HLA molecules covering a large proportion of the population. To identify commonly recognized CD4(+) T cell epitopes in Fel d 1, restricted through frequently expressed HLA molecules for potential future use in PIT. HLA matched antigen presenting cells, HLA blocking antibodies, and peptide truncations were used in ELISpot assays to establish HLA-restricted T cell epitopes. Cytokine responses were measured by ex vivo and cultured IFN-gamma, IL-4, and IL-10 ELISpots. Responses to an immunodominant region of chain 2 were identified in the majority of atopic individuals and epitopes restricted by HLA-DQB1(*)06 and -DPB1(*)0401 were characterized in detail. Significantly higher ex vivo IL-4 and lower IFN-gamma responses were observed to both epitopes in individuals with atopic dermatitis (AD) compared with those without disease. IL-10 responses were significantly lower in those with AD in the individuals with HLA-DPB1(*)0401. We have identified an immunodominant region of Fel d 1 which is frequently recognized by CD4(+) T cells from atopic individuals and contains epitopes that are restricted by very common HLA alleles.

Moderators of wellbeing interventions: Why do some people respond more positively than others?

PubMed Central

Nelson-Coffey, S. Katherine; Layous, Kristin; Jacobs Bao, Katherine; Davis, Oliver S. P.; Haworth, Claire M. A.

2017-01-01

Interventions rarely have a universal effect on all individuals. Reasons ranging from participant characteristics, context and fidelity of intervention completion could cause some people to respond more positively than others. Understanding these individual differences in intervention response may provide clues to the mechanisms behind the intervention, as well as inform future designs to make interventions maximally beneficial for all. Here we focus on an intervention designed to improve adolescent wellbeing, and explore potential moderators using a representative and well-powered sample. 16-year old participants (N = 932) in the Twins Wellbeing Intervention Study logged online once a week to complete control and wellbeing-enhancing activities consecutively. Throughout the study participants also provided information about a range of potential moderators of intervention response including demographics, seasonality, personality, baseline characteristics, activity fit, and effort. As expected, some individuals gained more from the intervention than others; we used multi-level modelling to test for moderation effects that could explain these individual differences. Of the 15 moderators tested, none significantly explained individual differences in intervention response in the intervention and follow-up phases. Self-reported effort and baseline positive affect had a notable effect in moderating response in the control phase, during which there was no overall improvement in wellbeing and mental health. Our results did not replicate the moderation effects that have been suggested by previous literature and future work needs to reconcile these differences. They also show that factors that have previously been shown to influence baseline wellbeing do not also influence an individual’s ability to benefit from a wellbeing intervention. Although future research should continue to explore potential moderators of intervention efficacy, our results suggest that the beneficial effect of positive activities in adolescents were universal across such factors as sex and socioeconomic status, bolstering claims of the scalability of positive activities to increase adolescent wellbeing. PMID:29107994

Moderators of wellbeing interventions: Why do some people respond more positively than others?

PubMed

Wang, R Adele H; Nelson-Coffey, S Katherine; Layous, Kristin; Jacobs Bao, Katherine; Davis, Oliver S P; Haworth, Claire M A

2017-01-01

Interventions rarely have a universal effect on all individuals. Reasons ranging from participant characteristics, context and fidelity of intervention completion could cause some people to respond more positively than others. Understanding these individual differences in intervention response may provide clues to the mechanisms behind the intervention, as well as inform future designs to make interventions maximally beneficial for all. Here we focus on an intervention designed to improve adolescent wellbeing, and explore potential moderators using a representative and well-powered sample. 16-year old participants (N = 932) in the Twins Wellbeing Intervention Study logged online once a week to complete control and wellbeing-enhancing activities consecutively. Throughout the study participants also provided information about a range of potential moderators of intervention response including demographics, seasonality, personality, baseline characteristics, activity fit, and effort. As expected, some individuals gained more from the intervention than others; we used multi-level modelling to test for moderation effects that could explain these individual differences. Of the 15 moderators tested, none significantly explained individual differences in intervention response in the intervention and follow-up phases. Self-reported effort and baseline positive affect had a notable effect in moderating response in the control phase, during which there was no overall improvement in wellbeing and mental health. Our results did not replicate the moderation effects that have been suggested by previous literature and future work needs to reconcile these differences. They also show that factors that have previously been shown to influence baseline wellbeing do not also influence an individual's ability to benefit from a wellbeing intervention. Although future research should continue to explore potential moderators of intervention efficacy, our results suggest that the beneficial effect of positive activities in adolescents were universal across such factors as sex and socioeconomic status, bolstering claims of the scalability of positive activities to increase adolescent wellbeing.

Potential and problems in ultrasound-responsive drug delivery systems

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ying-Zheng; Du, Li-Na; Lu, Cui-Tao; Jin, Yi-Guang; Ge, Shu-Ping

2013-01-01

Ultrasound is an important local stimulus for triggering drug release at the target tissue. Ultrasound-responsive drug delivery systems (URDDS) have become an important research focus in targeted therapy. URDDS include many different formulations, such as microbubbles, nanobubbles, nanodroplets, liposomes, emulsions, and micelles. Drugs that can be loaded into URDDS include small molecules, biomacromolecules, and inorganic substances. Fields of clinical application include anticancer therapy, treatment of ischemic myocardium, induction of an immune response, cartilage tissue engineering, transdermal drug delivery, treatment of Huntington’s disease, thrombolysis, and disruption of the blood–brain barrier. This review focuses on recent advances in URDDS, and discusses their formulations, clinical application, and problems, as well as a perspective on their potential use in the future. PMID:23637531

The costs of future polio risk management policies.

PubMed

Tebbens, Radboud J Duintjer; Sangrujee, Nalinee; Thompson, Kimberly M

2006-12-01

Decisionmakers need information about the anticipated future costs of maintaining polio eradication as a function of the policy options under consideration. Given the large portfolio of options, we reviewed and synthesized the existing cost data relevant to current policies to provide context for future policies. We model the expected future costs of different strategies for continued vaccination, surveillance, and other costs that require significant potential resource commitments. We estimate the costs of different potential policy portfolios for low-, middle-, and high-income countries to demonstrate the variability in these costs. We estimate that a global transition from routine immunization with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) would increase the costs of managing polio globally, although routine IPV use remains less costly than routine OPV use with supplemental immunization activities. The costs of surveillance and a stockpile, while small compared to routine vaccination costs, represent important expenditures to ensure adequate response to potential outbreaks. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses highlight important uncertainty in the aggregated costs and demonstrates that the discount rate and uncertainty in price and administration cost of IPV drives the expected incremental cost of routine IPV vs. OPV immunization.

Radioisotope Power Systems Program: A Program Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamley, John A.

2016-01-01

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program continues to plan, mature research in energy conversion, and partners with the Department of Energy (DOE) to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet potential future mission needs. Recent programs responsibilities include providing investment recommendations to NASA stakeholders on emerging thermoelectric and Stirling energy conversion technologies and insight on NASA investments at DOE in readying a generator for the Mars 2020 mission. This presentation provides an overview of the RPS Program content and status and the approach used to maintain the readiness of RPS to support potential future NASA missions.

Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.

PubMed

Baskett, Marissa L; Gaines, Steven D; Nisbet, Roger M

2009-01-01

Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect.

The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer.

PubMed

Fasullo, J T; Tomas, R; Stevenson, S; Otto-Bliesner, B; Brady, E; Wahl, E

2017-10-31

In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.

Hydrologic landscape classification evaluates streamflow vulnerability to climate change in Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Classification can allow assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and their responses to stressors. Here we demonstrate the use of a hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to assess vulnerability to potential future climate change at statewide and basin scales. The HL ...

Beacons to the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohliger, John

From the point of view that broadcasting is turning toward social responsibility and social ethic, it becomes the duty of university departments preparing personnel for the broadcasting field to select students potentially qualified to contribute in addition to technical capability "that extra something" denoting real ethical quality.…

Novel Modeling Tools for Propagating Climate Change Variability and Uncertainty into Hydrodynamic Forecasts

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding impacts of climate change on hydrodynamic processes and ecosystem response within the Great Lakes is an important and challenging task. Variability in future climate conditions, uncertainty in rainfall-runoff model forecasts, the potential for land use change, and t...

Irreversibly increased nitrogen fixation in Trichodesmium experimentally adapted to elevated carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Hutchins, David A.; Walworth, Nathan G.; Webb, Eric A.; Saito, Mak A.; Moran, Dawn; McIlvin, Matthew R.; Gale, Jasmine; Fu, Fei-Xue

2015-01-01

Nitrogen fixation rates of the globally distributed, biogeochemically important marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium increase under high carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in short-term studies due to physiological plasticity. However, its long-term adaptive responses to ongoing anthropogenic CO2 increases are unknown. Here we show that experimental evolution under extended selection at projected future elevated CO2 levels results in irreversible, large increases in nitrogen fixation and growth rates, even after being moved back to lower present day CO2 levels for hundreds of generations. This represents an unprecedented microbial evolutionary response, as reproductive fitness increases acquired in the selection environment are maintained after returning to the ancestral environment. Constitutive rate increases are accompanied by irreversible shifts in diel nitrogen fixation patterns, and increased activity of a potentially regulatory DNA methyltransferase enzyme. High CO2-selected cell lines also exhibit increased phosphorus-limited growth rates, suggesting a potential advantage for this keystone organism in a more nutrient-limited, acidified future ocean. PMID:26327191

Irreversibly increased nitrogen fixation in Trichodesmium experimentally adapted to elevated carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchins, David A.; Walworth, Nathan G.; Webb, Eric A.; Saito, Mak A.; Moran, Dawn; McIlvin, Matthew R.; Gale, Jasmine; Fu, Fei-Xue

2015-09-01

Nitrogen fixation rates of the globally distributed, biogeochemically important marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium increase under high carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in short-term studies due to physiological plasticity. However, its long-term adaptive responses to ongoing anthropogenic CO2 increases are unknown. Here we show that experimental evolution under extended selection at projected future elevated CO2 levels results in irreversible, large increases in nitrogen fixation and growth rates, even after being moved back to lower present day CO2 levels for hundreds of generations. This represents an unprecedented microbial evolutionary response, as reproductive fitness increases acquired in the selection environment are maintained after returning to the ancestral environment. Constitutive rate increases are accompanied by irreversible shifts in diel nitrogen fixation patterns, and increased activity of a potentially regulatory DNA methyltransferase enzyme. High CO2-selected cell lines also exhibit increased phosphorus-limited growth rates, suggesting a potential advantage for this keystone organism in a more nutrient-limited, acidified future ocean.

Is there the potential to adapt soybean (Glycine max Merr.) to future [CO2]? An analysis of the yield response of 18 genotypes in free air CO2 enrichment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rising atmospheric [CO2] is a uniform and global change that increases C3 photosynthesis by suppressing the oxygenation reaction of Rubisco and accelerating carboxylation. This has the potential to provide some offset to the negative effects of global change on crop yields. However, under field cond...

Ecological response to global climatic change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.; Janelle, Donald G.; Warf, Barney; Hansen, Kathy

2004-01-01

Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-07-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which is expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of Global Climate Model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the Integrated Catchment Model of Phosphorus Dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivity) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by soil type (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy-loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-12-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which are expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as it is to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of global climate model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by quaternary geology (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

The universality and the future prospects of physiological energetics: Reply to comments on "Physics of metabolic organization".

PubMed

Jusup, Marko; Sousa, Tânia; Domingos, Tiago; Labinac, Velimir; Marn, Nina; Wang, Zhen; Klanjšček, Tin

2017-03-01

In response to the comments on review "Physics of metabolic organization", we discuss the universality and the future prospects of physiological energetics. The topics range from the role of entropy in modeling living organisms to the apparent ubiquity of the von Bertalanffy curve, and the potential applications of the theory in yet unexplored domains. Tradeoffs in outreach to non-specialists are also briefly considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vaccines 'on demand': science fiction or a future reality.

PubMed

Ulmer, Jeffrey B; Mansoura, Monique K; Geall, Andrew J

2015-02-01

Self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are being developed as a platform technology with potential to be used for a broad range of targets. The synthetic production methods for their manufacture, combined with the modern tools of bioinformatics and synthetic biology, enable these vaccines to be produced rapidly from an electronic gene sequence. Preclinical proof of concept has so far been achieved for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rabies, Ebola, cytomegalovirus, human immunodeficiency virus and malaria. This editorial highlights the key milestones in the discovery and development of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines, and reviews how they might be used as a rapid response platform. The paper points out how future improvements in RNA vector design and non-viral delivery may lead to decreases in effective dose and increases in production capacity. The prospects for non-viral delivery of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are very promising. Like other types of nucleic acid vaccines, these vaccines have the potential to draw on the positive attributes of live-attenuated vaccines while obviating many potential safety limitations. Hence, this approach could enable the concept of vaccines on demand as a rapid response to a real threat rather than the deployment of strategic stockpiles based on epidemiological predictions for possible threats.

Antecedent conditions influence soil respiration differences in shrub and grass patches

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying the response of soil respiration to past environmental conditions is critical for predicting how future climate and vegetation change will impact ecosystem carbon balance. Increased shrub dominance in semiarid grasslands has potentially large effects on soil carbon cycling. The goal of t...

Live feed enrichment with probiotics: current methods and future perspectives on increasing finfish larviculture success

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Probiotics - active or inactive microorganisms incorporated to animal feeds - are considered a potential alternative to other treatments intended to enhance immune response, growth, or feed efficiency in animal rearing systems. While probiotics are extensively used in livestock practices, their use ...

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Treesearch

Jaymi J. LeBrun; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

Context. Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climateinduced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change. Objectives. We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian...

Climate Change: Potential Effects on Demands for US Military Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

As we do not fully understand how decision-makers will approach future climate- induced requirements, gaming provides a tool for better understanding...result in the need for humanitarian response missions. Those cases involve not only the stress induced by the natural environment, but also the...natural cyclic variability and a warming- induced variability. The pri- mary variability related to SST involves the strength of the storms, rather

Global-local methodologies and their application to nonlinear analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

1989-01-01

An assessment is made of the potential of different global-local analysis strategies for predicting the nonlinear and postbuckling responses of structures. Two postbuckling problems of composite panels are used as benchmarks and the application of different global-local methodologies to these benchmarks is outlined. The key elements of each of the global-local strategies are discussed and future research areas needed to realize the full potential of global-local methodologies are identified.

Responding to Vaccine Safety Signals during Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Maro, Judith C.; Fryback, Dennis G.; Lieu, Tracy A.; Lee, Grace M.; Martin, David B.

2014-01-01

Background Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system. Methods We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons. Results Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3∶1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior. Conclusions The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior. PMID:25536228

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

Changing Summer Precipitation Pattern Alters Microbial Community Response to Fall Wet-up in a Mediterranean Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, R. L.; Osborne, C. A.; Firestone, M. K.

2014-12-01

The large soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

2015-01-01

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

PubMed

Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2010-02-11

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-02-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-01-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038

Odor Communication and Mate Choice in Rodents

PubMed Central

Ferkin, Michael H.

2018-01-01

This paper details how chemical communication is affected by ecological challenges such as finding mates. I list several conditions that affect the decision to attract mates, the decision to respond to the signals of potential mates and how the response depends on context. These mate-choice decisions and their outcomes will depend on the life history constraints placed on individuals such as their fecundity, sex, lifespan, opportunities to mate in the future and age at senescence. Consequently, the sender’s decision to scent mark or self-groom as well as the receiver’s choice of response represents a tradeoff between the current costs of the participant’s own survival and future reproduction against that of reproducing now. The decision to scent mark and the response to the scent mark of opposite-sex conspecifics should maximize the fitness of the participants in that context. PMID:29370074

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Agro-ecological class stability decreases in response to climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change will impact bioclimatic drivers that regulate the geospatial distribution of dryland agro-ecological classes (AECs). Characterizing the geospatial relationship between present AECs and their bioclimatic controls will provide insights into potential future shifts in AECs as climate cha...

Industry into Teaching: An Alternative Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Annette; Randall, Rachael; Francis, Rod

2004-01-01

Teacher shortages have encouraged initiatives to tailor training programs to meet the demand in both past, current and future contexts. Such programs have been streamlined to ensure a rapid response to shortages, in addition to also drawing participants from non-traditional groups as a source of potential educators. More broadly in teacher…

Genetic and environmental limitations on crop responses to elevated [CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

While the future crop growing environment is likely to be warmer and with more variable water availability, the stimulation of C3 photosynthesis by elevated CO2 concentration provides a potential benefit of global climate change. However, experimental field studies suggest that C3 crops fall short o...

A Brighter Future: Solutions to Policy Issues Affecting America's Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McQuillan, Lawrence J., Ed.

This collection of papers explains why deep reforms are necessary if today's children are to reach their full potential as productive, independent, and responsible adults. The papers are: (1) "Orphanages as Villages" (Richard B. McKenzie); (2) "Medicating Children" (Linda Gorman); (3) "Government Drug Pushers and the…

Unpacking the Millennials: A Cautionary Tale for Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donnison, Sharn

2007-01-01

This paper is about the millennial generation. Much has been written about the generation: their character; beliefs; motivations; values; and future potentialities. This literature has gained momentum as marketers, employers, and educators seek to understand the generation as they come of age and enter into positions of social responsibility. The…

How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

2018-03-23

Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

4D bioprinting: the next-generation technology for biofabrication enabled by stimuli-responsive materials.

PubMed

Li, Yi-Chen; Zhang, Yu Shrike; Akpek, Ali; Shin, Su Ryon; Khademhosseini, Ali

2016-12-02

Four-dimensional (4D) bioprinting, encompassing a wide range of disciplines including bioengineering, materials science, chemistry, and computer sciences, is emerging as the next-generation biofabrication technology. By utilizing stimuli-responsive materials and advanced three-dimensional (3D) bioprinting strategies, 4D bioprinting aims to create dynamic 3D patterned biological structures that can transform their shapes or behavior under various stimuli. In this review, we highlight the potential use of various stimuli-responsive materials for 4D printing and their extension into biofabrication. We first discuss the state of the art and limitations associated with current 3D printing modalities and their transition into the inclusion of the additional time dimension. We then suggest the potential use of different stimuli-responsive biomaterials as the bioink that may achieve 4D bioprinting where transformation of fabricated biological constructs can be realized. We finally conclude with future perspectives.

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations

PubMed Central

Whitacre, James M.; Atamas, Sergei P.

2013-01-01

Trait diversity – the substrate for natural selection – is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy’s role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. PMID:22910487

The Environmental Protection Agency's Safety Standards for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel: Potential Path Forward in Response to the Report of the Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future - 13388

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forinash, Betsy; Schultheisz, Daniel; Peake, Tom

2013-07-01

Following the decision to withdraw the Yucca Mountain license application, the Department of Energy created a Blue Ribbon Commission (BRC) on America's Nuclear Future, tasked with recommending a national strategy to manage the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. The BRC issued its final report in January 2012, with recommendations covering transportation, storage and disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF); potential reprocessing; and supporting institutional measures. The BRC recommendations on disposal of SNF and high-level waste (HLW) are relevant to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which shares regulatory responsibility with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC): EPA issues 'generallymore » applicable' performance standards for disposal repositories, which are then implemented in licensing. For disposal, the BRC endorses developing one or more geological repositories, with siting based on an approach that is adaptive, staged and consent-based. The BRC recommends that EPA and NRC work cooperatively to issue generic disposal standards-applying equally to all sites-early in any siting process. EPA previously issued generic disposal standards that apply to all sites other than Yucca Mountain. However, the BRC concluded that the existing regulations should be revisited and revised. The BRC proposes a number of general principles to guide the development of future regulations. EPA continues to review the BRC report and to assess the implications for Agency action, including potential regulatory issues and considerations if EPA develops new or revised generic disposal standards. This review also involves preparatory activities to define potential process and public engagement approaches. (authors)« less

Analyzing the responses of species assemblages to climate change across the Great Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henareh Khalyani, A.; Falkowski, M. J.; Crookston, N.; Yousef, F.

2016-12-01

The potential impacts of climate change on the future distribution of tree species in not well understood. Climate driven changes in tree species distribution could cause significant changes in realized species niches, potentially resulting in the loss of ecotonal species as well as the formation on novel assemblages of overlapping tree species. In an effort to gain a better understating of how the geographic distribution of tree species may respond to climate change, we model the potential future distribution of 50 different tree species across 70 million ha in the Great Basin, USA. This is achieved by leveraging a species realized niche model based on non-parametric analysis of species occurrences across climatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. Spatially explicit, high spatial resolution (30 m) climate variables (e.g., precipitation, and minimum, maximum, and mean temperature) and associated climate indices were generated on an annual basis between 1981-2010 by integrating climate station data with digital elevation data (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data) in a thin plate spline interpolation algorithm (ANUSPLIN). Bioclimate models of species niches in in the cotemporary period and three following 30 year periods were then generated by integrating the climate variables, soil data, and CMIP 5 general circulation model projections. Our results suggest that local scale contemporary variations in species realized niches across space are influenced by edaphic and topographic variables as well as climatic variables. The local variability in soil properties and topographic variability across space also affect the species responses to climate change through time and potential formation of species assemblages in future. The results presented here in will aid in the development of adaptive forest management techniques aimed at mitigating negative impacts of climate change on forest composition, structure, and function.

Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

PubMed

McGuire, B

2010-05-28

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) Command and Control (C2) Capability to Improve Disaster Response and Recovery

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

on the possible threat of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and its potential consequences following the destructive “ derecho ” that hit Washington, DC...in 2012.19 Spanish for the word “straight,” a derecho is a term used to describe a widespread, long- lived, straight-line windstorm that is...emergency communications system and raised concern for future response. Both Hurricane Katrina and the Washington, DC, area derecho have subsequently

NATO’s Future Role in Europe: Toward a More Political Alliance in a Stable 1 1/2 Bloc System

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

response along the entire spectrum of potential aggression. In the event deterrence failed, the stategy called for a controlled, measured response... market economy, and a benign Soviet external policy are not made inevitable simply because they are desir- able. Russia has a long history of...bility and peace. • A mixed relationship, involving a combination of accord and competition, in which stability is achieved through a political

MSFC Skylab program engineering and integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A technical history and managerial critique of the MSFC role in the Skylab program is presented. The George C. Marshall Space Flight Center had primary hardware development responsibility for the Saturn Workshop Modules and many of the designated experiments in addition to the system integration responsibility for the entire Skylab Orbital Cluster. The report also includes recommendations and conclusions applicable to hardware design, test program philosophy and performance, and program management techniques with potential application to future programs.

CO2 response (ACi) gas exchange, calculated Vcmax & Jmax parameters, Feb2016-May2016, PA-SLZ, PA-PNM: Panama

DOE Data Explorer

Rogers, Alistair [Brookhaven National Lab; Serbin, Shawn [Brookhaven National Lab; Ely, Kim [Brookhaven National Lab; Wu, Jin [BNL; Wolfe, Brett [Smithsonian; Dickman, Turin [Los Alamos National Lab; Collins, Adam [Los Alamos National Lab; Detto, Matteo [Princeton; Grossiord, Charlotte [Los Alamos National Lab; McDowell, Nate [Los Alamos National Lab; Michaletz, Sean

2017-01-01

CO2 response (ACi) gas exchange measured on leaves collected from sunlit canopy trees on a monthly basis from Feb to May 2016 at SLZ and PNM. Dataset includes calculated Vcmax and Jmax parameters. This data was collected as part of the 2016 ENSO campaign. See related datasets (existing and future) for further sample details, leaf water potential, LMA, leaf spectra, other gas exchange and leaf chemistry.

A system to improve medication safety in the setting of acute kidney injury: initial provider response.

PubMed

McCoy, Allison B; McCoy, Allison Beck; Peterson, Josh F; Gadd, Cynthia S; Gadd, Cindy; Danciu, Ioana; Waitman, Lemuel R

2008-11-06

Clinical decision support systems can decrease common errors related to inappropriate or excessive dosing for nephrotoxic or renally cleared drugs. We developed a comprehensive medication safety intervention with varying levels of workflow intrusiveness within computerized provider order entry to continuously monitor for and alert providers about early-onset acute kidney injury. Initial provider response to the interventions shows potential success in improving medication safety and suggests future enhancements to increase effectiveness.

2015 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Interim Report on Phase 1 Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann

Demand response (DR) is an important resource for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient; deferring upgrades to generation, transmission, and distribution systems; and providing other customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of the available DR resource for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs), as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance the role of DR in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. As the state forges a clean energy future, the contributions of wind and solar electricity from centralized and distributed generation will fundamentally change the power grid’s operational dynamics.more » This transition requires careful planning to ensure sufficient capacity is available with the right characteristics – flexibility and fast response – to meet reliability needs. Illustrated is a snapshot of how net load (the difference between demand and intermittent renewables) is expected to shift. Increasing contributions from renewable generation introduces steeper ramps and a shift, into the evening, of the hours that drive capacity needs. These hours of peak capacity need are indicated by the black dots on the plots. Ultimately this study quantifies the ability and the cost of using DR resources to help meet the capacity need at these forecasted critical hours in the state.« less

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, S.L.; Atkins, J.; Bancroft, B.A.; Bartlein, P.J.; Lawler, J.J.; Smith, B.; Wilsey, C.B.

2012-01-01

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

The association between students taking elective courses in chiropractic technique and their anticipated chiropractic technique choices in future practice.

PubMed

Wanlass, Paul W; Sikorski, David M; Kizhakkeveettil, Anupama; Tobias, Gene S

2018-03-12

To assess students' opinions of the potential influence of taking elective courses in chiropractic techniques and their future practice preferences. An anonymous, voluntary survey was conducted among graduating students from a doctor of chiropractic program. The survey included questions regarding the chiropractic technique elective courses they had completed and the potential influence of these courses on their chiropractic technique choices in future practice. Surveys were pretested for face validity, and data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Of the 56 surveys distributed, 46 were completed, for a response rate of 82%. More than half of the students reported having taken at least 1 elective course in diversified technique (80%), Cox technique (76%), Activator Methods (70%), or sacro-occipital technique (63%). Less than half of the respondents reported taking technique elective courses in Gonstead or Thompson techniques. More than half of the students stated they were more likely to use Activator (72%), Thompson (68%), diversified (57%), or Cox (54%) techniques in their future practice after taking an elective course in that technique. Females stated that they were more likely to use Activator Methods ( p = .006) in future practice. Chiropractic technique elective courses in the doctor of chiropractic curriculum may influence students' choices of future practice chiropractic technique.

Global-local methodologies and their application to nonlinear analysis. [for structural postbuckling study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

1986-01-01

An assessment is made of the potential of different global-local analysis strategies for predicting the nonlinear and postbuckling responses of structures. Two postbuckling problems of composite panels are used as benchmarks and the application of different global-local methodologies to these benchmarks is outlined. The key elements of each of the global-local strategies are discussed and future research areas needed to realize the full potential of global-local methodologies are identified.

Interdisciplinary training to build an informatics workforce for precision medicine

PubMed Central

Williams, Marc S.; Ritchie, Marylyn D.; Payne, Philip R.O.

2015-01-01

The proposed Precision Medicine Initiative has the potential to transform medical care in the future through a shift from interventions based on evidence from population studies and empiric response to ones that account for a range of individual factors that more reliably predict response and outcomes for the patient. Many things are needed to realize this vision, but one of the most critical is an informatics workforce that has broad interdisciplinary training in basic science, applied research and clinical implementation. Current approaches to informatics training do not support this requirement. We present a collaborative model of training that has the potential to produce a workforce prepared for the challenges of implementing precision medicine. PMID:27054076

Objective Measures of Visual Function in Papilledema

PubMed Central

Moss, Heather E.

2016-01-01

Synopsis Visual function is an important parameter to consider when managing patients with papilledema. Though the current standard of care uses standard automated perimetry (SAP) to obtain this information, this test is inherently subjective and prone to patient errors. Objective visual function tests including the visual evoked potential, pattern electroretinogram, photopic negative response of the full field electroretinogram, and pupillary light response have the potential to replace or supplement subjective visual function tests in papilledema management. This article reviews the evidence for use of objective visual function tests to assess visual function in papilledema and discusses future investigations needed to develop them as clinically practical and useful measures for this purpose. PMID:28451649

The futures of climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, Sean

2017-01-01

This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.

Regulators of coastal wetland methane production and responses to simulated global change

Treesearch

Carmella Vizza; William E. West; Stuart E. Jones; Julia A. Hart; Gary A. Lamberti

2017-01-01

Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH4) emissions to the atmosphere, which vary along salinity and productivity gradients. Global change has the potential to reshape these gradients and therefore alter future contributions of wetlands to the global CH4 budget. Our study examined CH4...

Facilitating Primary Head Teacher Succession in England: The Role of the School Business Manager

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Charlotte; Armstrong, Paul; Pearson, Diana

2012-01-01

School leadership is significant for student learning, but increased workload and complexity are believed to be in part responsible for the difficulties internationally in managing succession, with experienced leaders leaving the profession prematurely and potential future leaders reluctant to take on the role. This article draws on a national…

Informal Social Support Interventions and their Role in Violence Prevention: An Agenda for Future Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Budde, Stephen; Schene, Patricia

2004-01-01

There is increasing interest among policymakers and practitioners in tapping the potential of family, friends, volunteers, peer support groups, and mutual aid organizations to help prevent violence. The popularity of these informal social support (ISS) interventions stems, in part, from their flexibility, responsiveness to individual needs, and…

Visionary Leadership

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-06-04

SHARED PURPOSE + EMPOWERED PEOPLE + APPROPRIATE ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES + STRATEGIC THINKING a SUCCESSFUL VISIONARY LEADERSHIP34 Nanus stated that the...energized and motivated people , acknowledged work well done, counseled and developed subordinates, always set the example, and listened to the soldiers...been given their positions of responsibility based on their previous succeses and their potential for future performance. Of course, previous successes

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. I. Changes in Microbial Functional Potential and Metabolism

Treesearch

Nicholas J. Bouskill; Tana E. Wood; Richard Baran; Zaw Ye; Benjamin P. Bowen; HsiaoChien Lim; Jizhong Zhou; Joy D. Van Nostrand; Peter Nico; Trent R. Northen; Whendee L. Silver; Eoin L. Brodie

2016-01-01

Global climate models predict a future of increased severity of drought in many tropical forests. Soil microbes are central to the balance of these systems as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon (C), yet how they respond metabolically to drought is not well-understood. We simulated...

Meeting the Needs of Children and Families: Opportunities and Challenges for School Psychology Training Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curtis, Michael J.; Batsche, George M.

1991-01-01

Notes that graduate training programs face challenges, as well as opportunities, in fulfillment of their responsibilities to prepare school psychologists for entry into professional practice. Examines nature and origins of potential changes facing school psychology and discusses adequacy of current training programs. Discusses future implications…

75 FR 74073 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-30

... population program HexSim. Though still at preliminary draft stage, population response simulations from this portion of the modeling process are available for public review by request from our office. These simulations do not estimate what will occur in the future, but provide comparative information on potential...

Conditions of Flexibility: Securing a More Responsive Higher Education System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnett, Ronald

2014-01-01

This report is the culmination of the "Flexible Pedagogies: Preparing for the Future" series of reports which have considered flexible learning from a range of perspectives. The report proposes fifteen conditions of flexibility to inject new thinking and new practices into an emerging new age. Flexible provision has the potential to…

Group size adjustment to ecological demand in a cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Zöttl, Markus; Frommen, Joachim G; Taborsky, Michael

2013-04-07

Environmental factors can determine which group size will maximize the fitness of group members. This is particularly important in cooperative breeders, where group members often serve different purposes. Experimental studies are yet lacking to check whether ecologically mediated need for help will change the propensity of dominant group members to accept immigrants. Here, we manipulated the perceived risk of predation for dominant breeders of the cooperatively breeding cichlid fish Neolamprologus pulcher to test their response to unrelated and previously unknown immigrants. Potential immigrants were more readily accepted if groups were exposed to fish predators or egg predators than to herbivorous fish or control situations lacking predation risk. Our data are consistent with both risk dilution and helping effects. Egg predators were presented before spawning, which might suggest that the fish adjust acceptance rates also to a potential future threat. Dominant group members of N. pulcher apparently consider both present and future need of help based on ecological demand. This suggests that acceptance of immigrants and, more generally, tolerance of group members on demand could be a widespread response to ecological conditions in cooperatively breeding animals.

A humanitarian preparedness toolbox: estimating flood affected figures and exposure of livelihoods to future floods events, using freely available datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paron, Paolo; von Hagen, Craig; Peppino Disperati, Stefano; Hermansyah, Budi; Shaheen, Imra; Jan, Qasim; Berloffa, Andrea; Khan, Ruby; Fakhre, Alam

2013-04-01

Pakistan is highly disaster-prone, with three major flood disasters occurred in the past three years, yet major losses are not inevitable. Farming-based families still struggling to recover from 2010 and 2011 floods have again faced another bad monsoon season in 2012. Meanwhile, the likelihood of yet more natural disasters in the future is high as the phenomenon of climate change is increasing the prevalence of extreme weather conditions. Even with less rainfall, the risk of flooding this year remains high, while many villages have not fully recovered from the 2011-2012 floods. It is of utmost importance to support the most vulnerable rural communities to recover their flood-affected livelihoods. In the meantime, prioritizing disaster preparedness through flood hazard and population mapping is crucial to ensure that realistic contingency plans are in place to deliver an effective and timely response and reduce the impact of floods before they strike. To increase preparedness in future floods, an integrated approach that builds the resilience of flood affected community and enhances emergency preparedness based on reliable data is critical. We present here the innovative methodology developed for estimating population and livelihood that could potentially be affected by a future flood scenario, as well as a methodology for knowing where these people are located, along with an overview of their livelihood pattern. This project has used only freely available dataset, due to the urgency of providing a toolbox to the humanitarian community and the absence of readily available detailed information on natural hazards and exposure in Pakistan. The estimated figures resulting from this project, would provide the Food Security stakeholders with adequate information and data for programming a tailored response in case of floods during future monsoon season. For the purpose of preparedness, understanding the risks, and its potential magnitude, is crucial to provide decision makers with timely information that can serve as a baseline to inform assessments, data analysis and programming of response. Having an estimate of the potentially affected people and agricultural areas before a disaster occurs, can contribute to an organized, appropriate, more timely and targeted response. We also developed a web-based mapping tool to allow remote access to relevant real-time data and scenarios. By combining maps of land cover, crop zones, flood hazard and population, this project has provided essential geographic orientation for food security preparedness analysis, and is essential for the following reasons: i. It provides the basis for quantifying population at risk of food insecurity before a disaster occurs; ii. It provides a stratification for any post-disaster assessment; iii. Combined with a FS&L (Food Security and Livelihood Assessment), it helps to inform the Food Security response analyses and assistance targeting; iv. It complements and inform the district-based HLV (Hazard Livelihood and Vulnerability baseline and contingency plans) with data and analyses at country and provincial level linked with agriculture seasonal calendars, main key production cycles, and seasonal hazards; v. It provides inputs to any future activities under the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) project.

Managing the space-time-load continuum in TMDL planning: a case study for understanding groundwaer loads through advanced mapping techniques

Treesearch

Phillip Harte; Marcel Belaval; Andrea Traviglia

2016-01-01

The lag time between groundwater recharge and discharge in a watershed and the potential groundwater load to streams is an important factor in forecasting responses to future land use practices. We call this concept managing the “space-time-load continuum.” It’s understood that in any given watershed, the response function (the load at any given time) will differ for...

The Budget of the United States Government. Department of Defense Budget for Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-02-04

and reached agree- ment with the Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae) to assume man- agement responsibility for the HEAF port- folio in... Sensitivities 29 Part Two. THEMES AND PRIORITIES TV. Investing in the Future 1 A. Investing in Human Capital and Reforming American Education 3...With U.S. leadership, the global response to the Iraqi invasion has the potential to set a favor- able precedent for the post-Cold-War era

International employees' concerns during serious disease outbreaks and the potential impact on business continuity: Lessons identified from the 2014-15 West African Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Cole, Jennifer; Watkins, Chris

This paper presents the findings of research carried out into the information-seeking behaviour, and information requirements of a small sample of international workers stationed in West Africa during the Zaire Ebola virus outbreak of 2014-15. The research study under which these results were obtained was part of exploratory research for a PhD focused on the use, and potential uses, of social media platforms during serious disease outbreaks that might be used to inform policy planning for public health and emergency response interventions. Thus, the findings from this study may provide valuable insights to business continuity managers and emergency planners in making future decisions about information exchange and crisis decision-making during future serious disease outbreaks.

Dentistry and dental education in the context of the evolving health care system.

PubMed

Anderson, Maxwell H

2007-08-01

This article is intended to stimulate dialogue within the intertwined dental practice and dental education communities about our evolving health care system and dentistry's role within this system as it reconfigures in response to a complex interplay of influences. The changing dental disease burden in the United States is analyzed with consideration of how evolution in disease prevalence influences societal need for dental services and the resulting potential impact on the types of services provided and the education of future dental practitioners. The article concludes with discussion of a potential future scenario for practice and education in which one or both of the two health abnormalities (dental caries and periodontal diseases) most closely associated with dentistry as an area of medical specialization go away as a consequence of transformational technologies.

Ethylene signaling renders the jasmonate response of Arabidopsis insensitive to future suppression by salicylic Acid.

PubMed

Leon-Reyes, Antonio; Du, Yujuan; Koornneef, Annemart; Proietti, Silvia; Körbes, Ana P; Memelink, Johan; Pieterse, Corné M J; Ritsema, Tita

2010-02-01

Cross-talk between jasmonate (JA), ethylene (ET), and Salicylic acid (SA) signaling is thought to operate as a mechanism to fine-tune induced defenses that are activated in response to multiple attackers. Here, 43 Arabidopsis genotypes impaired in hormone signaling or defense-related processes were screened for their ability to express SA-mediated suppression of JA-responsive gene expression. Mutant cev1, which displays constitutive expression of JA and ET responses, appeared to be insensitive to SA-mediated suppression of the JA-responsive marker genes PDF1.2 and VSP2. Accordingly, strong activation of JA and ET responses by the necrotrophic pathogens Botrytis cinerea and Alternaria brassicicola prior to SA treatment counteracted the ability of SA to suppress the JA response. Pharmacological assays, mutant analysis, and studies with the ET-signaling inhibitor 1-methylcyclopropene revealed that ET signaling renders the JA response insensitive to subsequent suppression by SA. The APETALA2/ETHYLENE RESPONSE FACTOR transcription factor ORA59, which regulates JA/ET-responsive genes such as PDF1.2, emerged as a potential mediator in this process. Collectively, our results point to a model in which simultaneous induction of the JA and ET pathway renders the plant insensitive to future SA-mediated suppression of JA-dependent defenses, which may prioritize the JA/ET pathway over the SA pathway during multi-attacker interactions.

Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, S.; McGregor, S.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

2016-12-01

As the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates temperature and rainfall globally, additionally contributing to weather extremes. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter the strength and frequency of ENSO and may also alter ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections, affecting ecosystems and human activity in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. State-of-art climate models exhibit considerable disagreement in projections of future changes in ENSO sea surface temperature variability. Despite this uncertainty, recent model studies suggest that the precipitation response to ENSO will be enhanced in the tropical Pacific under future warming, and as such the societal impacts of ENSO will increase. Here we use temperature and precipitation data from an ensemble of 41 CMIP5 models to show where ENSO teleconnections are being enhanced and dampened in a high-emission future scenario (RCP8.5) focusing on the changes that are occurring over land areas globally. Although there is some spread between the model projections, robust changes with strong ensemble agreement are found in certain locations, including amplification of teleconnections in southeast Australia, South America and the Maritime Continent. Our results suggest that in these regions future ENSO events will lead to more extreme temperature and rainfall responses.

Biomarkers of sepsis and their potential value in diagnosis, prognosis and treatment

PubMed Central

Sandquist, Mary; Wong, Hector R

2015-01-01

Biomarkers have great potential to improve the diagnosis and treatment of sepsis. The available literature supports the potential utility of sTREM-1, IL-27, suPAR, neutrophil CD64, presepsin, cfDNA and miRNAs as novel diagnostic, prognostic and treatment response biomarkers. The future of sepsis biomarkers lies in extensive validation studies of such novel biomarkers across heterogeneous populations and exploration of their power in combination. Furthermore, the use of a companion diagnostics model may augment the ability of investigators to identify novel sepsis biomarkers and develop specific therapeutic strategies based on biomarker information. PMID:25142036

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations.

PubMed

Whitacre, James M; Atamas, Sergei P

2012-10-01

Trait diversity - the substrate for natural selection - is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy's role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Young Children’s Affective Responses to Acceptance and Rejection From Peers: A Computer-based Task Sensitive to Variation in Temperamental Shyness and Gender

PubMed Central

Howarth, Grace Z.; Guyer, Amanda E.; Pérez-Edgar, Koraly

2013-01-01

This study presents a novel task examining young children’s affective responses to evaluative feedback—specifically, social acceptance and rejection—from peers. We aimed to determine (1) whether young children report their affective responses to hypothetical peer evaluation predictably and consistently, and (2) whether young children’s responses to peer evaluation vary as a function of temperamental shyness and gender. Four- to seven-year-old children (N = 48) sorted pictures of unknown, similar-aged children into those with whom they wished or did not wish to play. Computerized peer evaluation later noted whether the pictured children were interested in a future playdate with participants. Participants then rated their affective responses to each acceptance or rejection event. Children were happy when accepted by children with whom they wanted to play, and disappointed when these children rejected them. Highly shy boys showed a wider range of responses to acceptance and rejection based on initial social interest, and may be particularly sensitive to both positive and negative evaluation. Overall, the playdate task captures individual differences in affective responses to evaluative peer feedback and is potentially amenable to future applications in research with young children, including pairings with psychophysiological measures. PMID:23997429

Hidden benefits of a peer-mentored 'Hospital Orientation Day': first-year medical students' perspectives.

PubMed

Barker, Thomas A; Ngwenya, Nothando; Morley, David; Jones, Ellen; Thomas, Cathryn P; Coleman, Jamie J

2012-01-01

Entering the clinical environment is potentially stressful for junior medical students. We evaluated first-year medical student feedback on a peer-mentored 'Hospital Orientation Day' designed to provide insight into future clinical training. Using a mixed methodology approach data were collected from first-year medical students. Responses to a questionnaire were used to develop a topic guide for focus groups held the next academic year. The questionnaire was completed by 230 first-year students and 32 second years participated in the interviews. Thematic analysis was used to draw conclusions. Analysis of questionnaire responses indicated that students gained insight into future learning. Focus groups then generated five themes: (1) entering the hospital without fear, (2) linking the present with the future, (3) understanding the culture of learning in the clinical years, (4) a 'Backstage Pass' to the clinical world and (5) peer mentors make or break the day. Using peer mentors during the Hospital Orientation Day allowed insight into future learning. We highlight the importance of student Mentors in the success of hospital orientation. To maximise the benefits for first years, we recommend a mentor selection procedure, mentor training opportunities and incentives to optimise mentor performance.

Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas.

PubMed

Ashley, R M; Balmforth, D J; Saul, A J; Blanskby, J D

2005-01-01

Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.

Probing Gravitational Sensitivity in Biological Systems Using Magnetic Body Forces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guevorkian, Karine; Wurzel, Sam; Mihalusova, Mariana; Valles, Jim

2003-01-01

At Brown University, we are developing the use of magnetic body forces as a means to simulate variable gravity body forces on biological systems. This tool promises new means to probe gravi-sensing and the gravi-response of biological systems. It also has the potential as a technique for screening future systems for space flight experiments.

Deliberative Rhetoric as a Step in Organizational Crisis Management: Exxon as a Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Darrin; Sellnow, Timothy

1995-01-01

Explains that when organizations face crises, their rhetorical response often follows two steps: assessment of causes leading to the crisis, and a search for potential solutions and preventive measures for the future. States that epideictic rhetoric designed to sustain or regain the organization's reputation is effective in both steps. Examines…

Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hansen; Ronald P. Neilson; Virginia H. Dale; Curtis H. Flather; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Currie; Sarah Shafer; Rosamonde Cook; Partick J. Bartlein

2001-01-01

This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may...

Managing the space-time-load continuum in TMDL planning: A case study for understanding groundwater loads through advanced mapping techniques

EPA Science Inventory

The lag time between groundwater recharge and discharge in a watershed and the potential groundwater load to streams is an important factor in forecasting responses to future land use practices. We call this concept managing the “space-time-load continuum”. It’s understood that i...

A conceptual framework for adaptive forest management under climate change

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Steve McNulty; James M. Vose; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Harbin Li

2014-01-01

The consensus among most scientists is that the global climate is changing in response to a rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years. This perspective has prompted research on potential changes in future forest conditions so that management interventions might be developed to protect desired ecosystem services. Some of the most significant...

Computer simulation studies in fluid and calcium regulation and orthostatic intolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

The systems analysis approach to physiological research uses mathematical models and computer simulation. Major areas of concern during prolonged space flight discussed include fluid and blood volume regulation; cardiovascular response during shuttle reentry; countermeasures for orthostatic intolerance; and calcium regulation and bone atrophy. Potential contributions of physiologic math models to future flight experiments are examined.

Long-term vegetation changes in a temperate forest impacted by climate change

Treesearch

Lauren E. Oakes; Paul E. Hennon; Kevin L. O' Hara; Rodolfo Dirzo

2014-01-01

Pervasive forest mortality is expected to increase in future decades as a result of increasing temperatures. Climate-induced forest dieback can have consequences on ecosystem services, potentially mediated by changes in forest structure and understory community composition that emerge in response to tree death. Although many dieback events around the world have been...

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze

2008-01-01

As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...

Culture Matters--The Training of Senior Civil Servants in Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knassmüller, Monika; Veit, Sylvia

2016-01-01

Senior civil servants (SCS) are powerful actors with great responsibilities in the field of policymaking and management. Due to public sector reforms that are New Public Management oriented, specialised education and structured training programmes for (future) SCS as well as fast-track systems for high-potential employees have become increasingly…

Operational Group Sandy technical progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

This report documents results from the March 2013 deployment of the OGS. It includes background information on Hurricane Sandy and the federal response; the OGS methodology; scenarios for Hurricane Sandy’s impact on coastal communities and urban ecosystems; potential interventions to improve regional resilience to future major storms; a discussion of scenario results; and lessons learned about the OGS process.

Regulation of the host immune system by helminth parasites.

PubMed

Maizels, Rick M; McSorley, Henry J

2016-09-01

Helminth parasite infections are associated with a battery of immunomodulatory mechanisms that affect all facets of the host immune response to ensure their persistence within the host. This broad-spectrum modulation of host immunity has intended and unintended consequences, both advantageous and disadvantageous. Thus the host can benefit from suppression of collateral damage during parasite infection and from reduced allergic, autoimmune, and inflammatory reactions. However, helminth infection can also be detrimental in reducing vaccine responses, increasing susceptibility to coinfection and potentially reducing tumor immunosurveillance. In this review we will summarize the panoply of immunomodulatory mechanisms used by helminths, their potential utility in human disease, and prospective areas of future research. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards monitoring real-time cellular response using an integrated microfluidics-MALDI/nESI-ion mobility-mass spectrometry platform

PubMed Central

Enders, Jeffrey R.; Marasco, Christina C.; Kole, Ayeeshik; Nguyen, Bao; Sundarapandian, Sevugarajan; Seale, Kevin T.; Wikswo, John P.; McLean, John A.

2014-01-01

The combination of microfluidic cell trapping devices with ion mobility-mass spectrometry offers the potential for elucidating in real time the dynamic responses of small populations of cells to paracrine signals, changes in metabolite levels, and delivery of drugs and toxins. Preliminary experiments examining peptides in methanol and recording the interactions of yeast and Jurkat cells with their superfusate have identified instrumental setup and control parameters and on-line desalting procedures. Numerous initial experiments demonstrate and validate this new instrumental platform. Future outlooks and potential applications are addressed, specifically how this instrumentation may be used for fully automated systems biology studies of the significantly interdependent, dynamic internal workings of cellular metabolic and signaling pathways. PMID:21073240

Novel Applications of Metabolomics in Personalized Medicine: A Mini-Review.

PubMed

Li, Bingbing; He, Xuyun; Jia, Wei; Li, Houkai

2017-07-13

Interindividual variability in drug responses and disease susceptibility is common in the clinic. Currently, personalized medicine is highly valued, the idea being to prescribe the right medicine to the right patient. Metabolomics has been increasingly applied in evaluating the therapeutic outcomes of clinical drugs by correlating the baseline metabolic profiles of patients with their responses, i.e., pharmacometabonomics, as well as prediction of disease susceptibility among population in advance, i.e., patient stratification. The accelerated advance in metabolomics technology pinpoints the huge potential of its application in personalized medicine. In current review, we discussed the novel applications of metabolomics with typical examples in evaluating drug therapy and patient stratification, and underlined the potential of metabolomics in personalized medicine in the future.

Standardization of a Hierarchical Transactive Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammerstrom, Donald J.; Oliver, Terry V.; Melton, Ronald B.

2010-12-03

The authors describe work they have conducted toward the generalization and standardization of the transactive control approach that was first demonstrated in the Olympic Peninsula Project for the management of a transmission constraint. The newly generalized approach addresses several potential shortfalls of the prior approach: First, the authors have formalized a hierarchical node structure which defines the nodes and the functional signal pathways between these nodes. Second, by fully generalizing the inputs, outputs, and functional responsibilities of each node, the authors make the approach available to a much wider set of responsive assets and operational objectives. Third, the new, generalizedmore » approach defines transactive signals that include the predicted day-ahead future. This predictive feature allows the market-like bids and offers to become resolved iteratively over time, thus allowing the behaviors of responsive assets to be called upon both for the present and as future dispatch decisions are being made. The hierarchical transactive control approach is a key feature of a proposed Pacific Northwest smart grid demonstration.« less

Stakeholder insights on the planning and development of an independent benchmark standard for responsible food marketing.

PubMed

Cairns, Georgina; Macdonald, Laura

2016-06-01

A mixed methods qualitative survey investigated stakeholder responses to the proposal to develop an independently defined, audited and certifiable set of benchmark standards for responsible food marketing. Its purpose was to inform the policy planning and development process. A majority of respondents were supportive of the proposal. A majority also viewed the engagement and collaboration of a broad base of stakeholders in its planning and development as potentially beneficial. Positive responses were associated with views that policy controls can and should be extended to include all form of marketing, that obesity and non-communicable diseases prevention and control was a shared responsibility and an urgent policy priority and prior experience of independent standardisation as a policy lever for good practice. Strong policy leadership, demonstrable utilisation of the evidence base in its development and deployment and a conceptually clear communications plan were identified as priority targets for future policy planning. Future research priorities include generating more evidence on the feasibility of developing an effective community of practice and theory of change, the strengths and limitations of these and developing an evidence-based step-wise communications strategy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An epigenome-wide association analysis of cardiac autonomic responses among a population of welders.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinming; Liu, Zhonghua; Umukoro, Peter E; Cavallari, Jennifer M; Fang, Shona C; Weisskopf, Marc G; Lin, Xihong; Mittleman, Murray A; Christiani, David C

2017-02-01

DNA methylation is one of the potential epigenetic mechanisms associated with various adverse cardiovascular effects; however, its association with cardiac autonomic dysfunction, in particular, is unknown. In the current study, we aimed to identify epigenetic variants associated with alterations in cardiac autonomic responses. Cardiac autonomic responses were measured with two novel markers: acceleration capacity (AC) and deceleration capacity (DC). We examined DNA methylation levels at more than 472,506 CpG probes through the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip assay. We conducted separate linear mixed models to examine associations of DNA methylation levels at each CpG with AC and DC. One CpG (cg26829071) located in the GPR133 gene was negatively associated with DC values after multiple testing corrections through false discovery rate. Our study suggests the potential functional importance of methylation in cardiac autonomic responses. Findings from the current study need to be replicated in future studies in a larger population.

Emerging potential of stimulus-responsive nanosized anticancer drug delivery systems for systemic applications.

PubMed

Ruttala, Hima Bindu; Ramasamy, Thiruganesh; Madeshwaran, Thiagarajan; Hiep, Tran Tuan; Kandasamy, Umadevi; Oh, Kyung Taek; Choi, Han-Gon; Yong, Chul Soon; Kim, Jong Oh

2018-02-01

The development of novel drug delivery systems based on well-defined polymer therapeutics has led to significant improvements in the treatment of multiple disorders. Advances in material chemistry, nanotechnology, and nanomedicine have revolutionized the practices of drug delivery. Stimulus-responsive material-based nanosized drug delivery systems have remarkable properties that allow them to circumvent biological barriers and achieve targeted intracellular drug delivery. Specifically, the development of novel nanocarrier-based therapeutics is the need of the hour in managing complex diseases. In this review, we have briefly described the fundamentals of drug targeting to diseased tissues, physiological barriers in the human body, and the mechanisms/modes of drug-loaded carrier systems. To that end, this review serves as a comprehensive overview of the recent developments in stimulus-responsive drug delivery systems, with focus on their potential applications and impact on the future of drug delivery.

Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Rind, David; Goldberg, Richard

1990-01-01

New and published climate-model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes. New sensitivity tests carried out with a vegetation model indicate that climate-induced increases in disturbance could, in turn, significantly alter the total biomass and compositional response of forests to future warming. An increase in disturbance frequency is also likely to increase the rate at which natural vegetation responses to future climate change. The results reinforce the hypothesis that forests could be significantly altered by the first part of the next century. The modeling also confirms the potential utility of selected time series of fossil pollen data for investigating the poorly understood natural patterns of century-scale climate variability.

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge underscores the Schlaepfer et al. Future regeneration potential of big sagebrush potential futility of efforts to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggest a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

PubMed Central

Reed, Thomas E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.; Meir, Eli; Waples, Robin S.; Hinch, Scott G.

2011-01-01

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change. PMID:21738573

The Emergence of Precision Urologic Oncology: A Collaborative Review on Biomarker-driven Therapeutics.

PubMed

Barbieri, Christopher E; Chinnaiyan, Arul M; Lerner, Seth P; Swanton, Charles; Rubin, Mark A

2017-02-01

Biomarker-driven cancer therapy, also referred to as precision oncology, has received increasing attention for its promise of improving patient outcomes by defining subsets of patients more likely to respond to various therapies. In this collaborative review article, we examine recent literature regarding biomarker-driven therapeutics in urologic oncology, to better define the state of the field, explore the current evidence supporting utility of this approach, and gauge potential for the future. We reviewed relevant literature, with a particular focus on recent studies about targeted therapy, predictors of response, and biomarker development. The recent advances in molecular profiling have led to a rapid expansion of potential biomarkers and predictive information for patients with urologic malignancies. Across disease states, distinct molecular subtypes of cancers have been identified, with the potential to inform choices of management strategy. Biomarkers predicting response to standard therapies (such as platinum-based chemotherapy) are emerging. In several malignancies (particularly renal cell carcinoma and castration-resistant prostate cancer), targeted therapy against commonly altered signaling pathways has emerged as standard of care. Finally, targeted therapy against alterations present in rare patients (less than 2%) across diseases has the potential to drastically alter patterns of care and choices of therapeutic options. Precision medicine has the highest potential to impact the care of patients. Prospective studies in the setting of clinical trials and standard of care therapy will help define reliable predictive biomarkers and new therapeutic targets leading to real improvement in patient outcomes. Precision oncology uses molecular information (DNA and RNA) from the individual and the tumor to match the right patient with the right treatment. Tremendous strides have been made in defining the molecular underpinnings of urologic malignancies and understanding how these predict response to treatment-this represents the future of urologic oncology. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Emergence of Precision Urologic Oncology: A Collaborative Review on Biomarker-driven Therapeutics

PubMed Central

Barbieri, Christopher E.; Chinnaiyan, Arul M.; Lerner, Seth P.; Swanton, Charles; Rubin, Mark A.

2016-01-01

Context Biomarker-driven cancer therapy, also referred to as precision oncology, has received increasing attention for its promise of improving patient outcomes by defining subsets of patients more likely to respond to various therapies. Objective In this collaborative review article, we examine recent literature regarding biomarker-driven therapeutics in urologic oncology, to better define the state of the field, explore the current evidence supporting utility of this approach, and gauge potential for the future. Evidence acquisition We reviewed relevant literature, with a particular focus on recent studies about targeted therapy, predictors of response, and biomarker development. Evidence synthesis The recent advances in molecular profiling have led to a rapid expansion of potential biomarkers and predictive information for patients with urologic malignancies. Across disease states, distinct molecular subtypes of cancers have been identified, with the potential to inform choices of management strategy. Biomarkers predicting response to standard therapies (such as platinum-based chemotherapy) are emerging. In several malignancies (particularly renal cell carcinoma and castration-resistant prostate cancer), targeted therapy against commonly altered signaling pathways has emerged as standard of care. Finally, targeted therapy against alterations present in rare patients (less than 2%) across diseases has the potential to drastically alter patterns of care and choices of therapeutic options. Conclusions Precision medicine has the highest potential to impact the care of patients. Prospective studies in the setting of clinical trials and standard of care therapy will help define reliable predictive biomarkers and new therapeutic targets leading to real improvement in patient outcomes. Patient summary Precision oncology uses molecular information (DNA and RNA) from the individual and the tumor to match the right patient with the right treatment. Tremendous strides have been made in defining the molecular underpinnings of urologic malignancies and understanding how these predict response to treatment—this represents the future of urologic oncology. PMID:27567210

An assessment of the status and trends in satellite communications 1986-2000: An information document prepared for the Communications Subcommittee of the Space Applications Advisory Committee

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poley, W. A.; Stevens, G. H.; Stevenson, S. M.; Lekan, J.; Arth, C. H.; Hollansworth, J. E.; Miller, E. F.

1986-01-01

This is a response to a Space Applications Advisory Committee (SAAC) request for information about the status and trends in satellite communications, to be used to support efforts to conceive and recommend long range goals for NASA communications activities. Included in this document are assessments of: (1) the outlook for satellite communications, including current applications, potential future applications, and impact of the changing environment such as optical fiber networks, the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) standard, and the rapidly growing market for Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT); (2) the restrictions imposed by our limited spectrum resource; and (3) technology needs indicated by future trends. Potential future systems discussed include: large powerful satellites for providing personal communications; VSAT compatible satellites with onboard switching and having voice capability; large satellites which offer a pervasive T1 network service (primarily for video-phone); and large geostationary communications facilities which support common use by several carriers. Also, discussion is included of NASA particular needs and possible future systems. Based on the mentioned system concepts, specific technology recommendations are provided for the time frames of now - 1993, 1994 - 2000, and 2000 - 2010.

[Current status and future perspectives of hepatocyte transplantation].

PubMed

Pareja, Eugenia; Cortés, Miriam; Gómez-Lechón, M José; Maupoey, Javier; San Juan, Fernando; López, Rafael; Mir, Jose

2014-02-01

The imbalance between the number of potential beneficiaries and available organs, originates the search for new therapeutic alternatives, such as Hepatocyte transplantation (HT).Even though this is a treatment option for these patients, the lack of unanimity of criteria regarding indications and technique, different cryopreservation protocols, as well as the different methodology to assess the response to this therapy, highlights the need of a Consensus Conference to standardize criteria and consider future strategies to improve the technique and optimize the results.Our aim is to review and update the current state of hepatocyte transplantation, emphasizing the future research attempting to solve the problems and improve the results of this treatment. Copyright © 2013 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

MAGNESIUM ALLOYS IN US MILITARY APPLICATIONS: PAST, CURRENT AND FUTURE SOLUTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mathaudhu, Suveen N.; Nyberg, Eric A.

2010-02-26

Since the 1940’s Mg-alloys have been used for military applications, from aircraft components to ground vehicles. The drive for usage was primarily availability and lightweighting of military systems. But the promise of widespread military usage was not met largely based on corrosion and flammability concerns, poor mechanical behavior and inferior ballistic response. This review paper will cover historical, current and potential future applications with a focus on scientific, engineering and social barriers relevant to integration of Mg-alloy. It will also present mechanical and physical property improvements solutions which are currently being developed to address these issues.

Evidence base and future research directions in the management of low back pain.

PubMed

Abbott, Allan

2016-03-18

Low back pain (LBP) is a prevalent and costly condition. Awareness of valid and reliable patient history taking, physical examination and clinical testing is important for diagnostic accuracy. Stratified care which targets treatment to patient subgroups based on key characteristics is reliant upon accurate diagnostics. Models of stratified care that can potentially improve treatment effects include prognostic risk profiling for persistent LBP, likely response to specific treatment based on clinical prediction models or suspected underlying causal mechanisms. The focus of this editorial is to highlight current research status and future directions for LBP diagnostics and stratified care.

Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

PubMed

Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

2014-04-01

Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Satellite remote sensing, biodiversity research and conservation of the future

PubMed Central

Pettorelli, Nathalie; Safi, Kamran; Turner, Woody

2014-01-01

Assessing and predicting ecosystem responses to global environmental change and its impacts on human well-being are high priority targets for the scientific community. The potential for synergies between remote sensing science and ecology, especially satellite remote sensing and conservation biology, has been highlighted by many in the past. Yet, the two research communities have only recently begun to coordinate their agendas. Such synchronization is the key to improving the potential for satellite data effectively to support future environmental management decision-making processes. With this themed issue, we aim to illustrate how integrating remote sensing into ecological research promotes a better understanding of the mechanisms shaping current changes in biodiversity patterns and improves conservation efforts. Added benefits include fostering innovation, generating new research directions in both disciplines and the development of new satellite remote sensing products. PMID:24733945

Hybrid PET/MR imaging in two sarcoma patients - clinical benefits and implications for future trials.

PubMed

Partovi, Sasan; Kohan, Andres A; Zipp, Lisa; Faulhaber, Peter; Kosmas, Christos; Ros, Pablo R; Robbin, Mark R

2014-01-01

PET/MRI is an evolving hybrid imaging modality which combines the inherent strengths of MRIs soft-tissue and contrast resolution and PETs functional metabolic capabilities. Bone and soft-tissue sarcoma are a relatively rare tumor entity, relying on MRI for local staging and often on PET/CT for lymph node involvement and metastatic spread evaluation. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the successful use of PET/MRI in two sarcoma patients. We also use these patients as a starting point to discuss how PET/MRI might be of value in sarcoma. Among its potential benefits are: superior TNM staging than either modality alone, decreased radiation dose, more sensitive and specific follow-up and better assessment of treatment response. These potentials need to be investigated in future PET/MRI soft-tissue sarcoma trials.

Learning from the past, looking to the future: Exploring our place with Indigenous Australians.

PubMed

Nelson, Alison

2009-04-01

This paper aims to explore ways in which we as occupational therapists in Australia can participate in enabling a different and better future for all Australians. In doing so, it is necessary to explore our history and our cultures, both individually and collectively as a profession, and to understand the ways in which these shape who we are and what we do. As occupational therapists, we have valuable knowledge and skills that have the potential to contribute in a positive way to the health and educational outcomes of Indigenous Australians. As a profession operating in Australia, we also have a responsibility to reach this potential. This paper aims to present some of these contributions and to provide examples of practical and culturally safe ways in which we can take action.

Personalizing health care: feasibility and future implications.

PubMed

Godman, Brian; Finlayson, Alexander E; Cheema, Parneet K; Zebedin-Brandl, Eva; Gutiérrez-Ibarluzea, Inaki; Jones, Jan; Malmström, Rickard E; Asola, Elina; Baumgärtel, Christoph; Bennie, Marion; Bishop, Iain; Bucsics, Anna; Campbell, Stephen; Diogene, Eduardo; Ferrario, Alessandra; Fürst, Jurij; Garuoliene, Kristina; Gomes, Miguel; Harris, Katharine; Haycox, Alan; Herholz, Harald; Hviding, Krystyna; Jan, Saira; Kalaba, Marija; Kvalheim, Christina; Laius, Ott; Lööv, Sven-Ake; Malinowska, Kamila; Martin, Andrew; McCullagh, Laura; Nilsson, Fredrik; Paterson, Ken; Schwabe, Ulrich; Selke, Gisbert; Sermet, Catherine; Simoens, Steven; Tomek, Dominik; Vlahovic-Palcevski, Vera; Voncina, Luka; Wladysiuk, Magdalena; van Woerkom, Menno; Wong-Rieger, Durhane; Zara, Corrine; Ali, Raghib; Gustafsson, Lars L

2013-08-13

Considerable variety in how patients respond to treatments, driven by differences in their geno- and/ or phenotypes, calls for a more tailored approach. This is already happening, and will accelerate with developments in personalized medicine. However, its promise has not always translated into improvements in patient care due to the complexities involved. There are also concerns that advice for tests has been reversed, current tests can be costly, there is fragmentation of funding of care, and companies may seek high prices for new targeted drugs. There is a need to integrate current knowledge from a payer's perspective to provide future guidance. Multiple findings including general considerations; influence of pharmacogenomics on response and toxicity of drug therapies; value of biomarker tests; limitations and costs of tests; and potentially high acquisition costs of new targeted therapies help to give guidance on potential ways forward for all stakeholder groups. Overall, personalized medicine has the potential to revolutionize care. However, current challenges and concerns need to be addressed to enhance its uptake and funding to benefit patients.

Personalizing health care: feasibility and future implications

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Considerable variety in how patients respond to treatments, driven by differences in their geno- and/ or phenotypes, calls for a more tailored approach. This is already happening, and will accelerate with developments in personalized medicine. However, its promise has not always translated into improvements in patient care due to the complexities involved. There are also concerns that advice for tests has been reversed, current tests can be costly, there is fragmentation of funding of care, and companies may seek high prices for new targeted drugs. There is a need to integrate current knowledge from a payer’s perspective to provide future guidance. Multiple findings including general considerations; influence of pharmacogenomics on response and toxicity of drug therapies; value of biomarker tests; limitations and costs of tests; and potentially high acquisition costs of new targeted therapies help to give guidance on potential ways forward for all stakeholder groups. Overall, personalized medicine has the potential to revolutionize care. However, current challenges and concerns need to be addressed to enhance its uptake and funding to benefit patients. PMID:23941275

Caudate responses to reward anticipation associated with delay discounting behavior in healthy youth

PubMed Central

Benningfield, Margaret M.; Blackford, Jennifer U.; Ellsworth, Melissa E.; Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R.; Martin, Peter R.; Cowan, Ronald L.; Zald, David H.

2014-01-01

Background Choices requiring delay of gratification made during adolescence can have significant impact on life trajectory. Willingness to delay gratification can be measured using delay discounting tasks that require a choice between a smaller immediate reward and a larger delayed reward. Individual differences in the subjective value of delayed rewards are associated with risk for development of psychopathology including substance abuse. The neurobiological underpinnings related to these individual differences early in life are not fully understood. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in delay discounting behavior in healthy youth are related to differences in responsiveness to potential reward. Method Nineteen 10 to 14 year-olds performed a monetary incentive delay task to assess neural sensitivity to potential reward and a questionnaire to measure discounting of future monetary rewards. Results Left ventromedial caudate activation during anticipation of potential reward was negatively correlated with delay discounting behavior. There were no regions where brain responses during notification of reward outcome were associated with discounting behavior. Conclusions Brain activation during anticipation of potential reward may serve as a marker for individual differences in ability or willingness to delay gratification in healthy youth. PMID:24309299

Biological responses to M13 bacteriophage modified titanium surfaces in vitro.

PubMed

Sun, Yuhua; Li, Yiting; Wu, Baohua; Wang, Jianxin; Lu, Xiong; Qu, Shuxin; Weng, Jie; Feng, Bo

2017-08-01

Phage-based materials have showed great potential in tissue engineering application. However, it is unknown what inflammation response will happen to this kind of materials. This work is to explore the biological responses to M13 bacteriophage (phage) modified titanium surfaces in vitro from the aspects of their interaction with macrophages, osteoblasts and mineralization behavior. Pretreated Ti surface, Ti surfaces with noncrosslinked phage film (APP) and crosslinked phage film (APPG) were compared. Phage films could limit the macrophage adhesion and activity due to inducing adherent-cell apoptosis. The initial inflammatory activity (24h) caused by phage films was relatively high with more production of TNF-α, but in the later stage (7-10days) inflammatory response was reduced with lower TNF-α, IL-6 and higher IL-10. In addition, phage films improved osteoblast adhesion, differentiation, and hydroapatite (HA)-forming via a combination of topographical and biochemcial cues. The noncrosslinked phage film displayed the best immunomodulatory property, osteogenic activity and HA mineralization ability. This work provides better understanding of inflammatory and osteogenetic activity of phage-based materials and contributes to their future application in tissue engineering. In vivo, the bone and immune cells share a common microenvironment, and are being affected by similar cytokines, signaling molecules, transcription factors and membrane receptors. Ideal implants should cause positive biological response, including adequate and appropriate inflammatory reaction, well-balanced bone formation and absorption. Phage-based materials have showed great potential in tissue engineering application. However, at present it is unknown what inflammation response will happen to this kind of materials. A good understanding of the immune response possibly induced by phage-based materials is needed. This work studied the osteoimmunomodulation property of phage films on titanium surface, involving inflammatory response, osteogenic activity and biomineralization ability. It provides more understanding of the phage-based materials and contributes to their future application in tissue engineering. Copyright © 2017 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried

2016-06-01

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Endodontic Microbiology and Pathobiology: Current State of Knowledge.

PubMed

Fouad, Ashraf F

2017-01-01

Newer research tools and basic science knowledge base have allowed the exploration of endodontic diseases in the pulp and periapical tissues in novel ways. The use of next generation sequencing, bioinformatics analyses, genome-wide association studies, to name just a few of these innovations, has allowed the identification of hundreds of microorganisms and of host response factors. This review addresses recent advances in endodontic microbiology and the host response and discusses the potential for future innovations in this area. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

PubMed

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Adaptive potential of northernmost tree populations to climate change, with emphasis on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.).

PubMed

Savolainen, Outi; Kujala, Sonja T; Sokol, Catherina; Pyhäjärvi, Tanja; Avia, Komlan; Knürr, Timo; Kärkkäinen, Katri; Hicks, Sheila

2011-01-01

The adaptive potential of the northernmost Pinus sylvestris L. (and other northern tree) populations is considered by examining first the current patterns of quantitative genetic adaptive traits, which show high population differentiation and clines. We then consider the postglacial history of the populations using both paleobiological and genetic data. The current patterns of diversity at nuclear genes suggest that the traces of admixture are mostly visible in mitochondrial DNA variation patterns. There is little evidence of increased diversity due to admixture between an eastern and western colonization lineage, but no signal of reduced diversity (due to sequential bottlenecks) either. Quantitative trait variation in the north is not associated with the colonizing lineages. The current clines arose rapidly and may be based on standing genetic variation. The initial phenotypic response of Scots pine in the north is predicted to be increased survival and growth. The genetic responses are examined based on quantitative genetic predictions of sustained selection response and compared with earlier simulation results that have aimed at more ecological realism. The phenotypic responses of increased growth and survival reduce the opportunity for selection and delay the evolutionary responses. The lengthening of the thermal growing period also causes selection on the critical photoperiod in the different populations. Future studies should aim at including multiple ecological and genetic factors in evaluating potential responses.

Impact of Pharmacogenetics on Efficacy and Safety of Statin Therapy for Dyslipidemia.

PubMed

Maxwell, Whitney D; Ramsey, Laura B; Johnson, Samuel G; Moore, Kate G; Shtutman, Michael; Schoonover, John H; Kawaguchi-Suzuki, Marina

2017-09-01

Interindividual variability in response to 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors, or statins, with regard to both efficacy and safety is an obvious target for pharmacogenetic research. Many genes have been identified as possible contributors to variability in statin response and safety. Genetic polymorphisms may alter the structure or expression of coded proteins, with potential impacts on lipid and statin absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination as well as response pathways related to the pharmacologic effect. Many studies have explored the variation in statins' pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters; however, to our knowledge, few have established definitive relationships between the genetic polymorphisms and patient outcomes, such as cardiovascular events. In this review article, we provide a statin-based summary of available evidence describing pharmacogenetic associations that may be of clinical relevance in the future. Although currently available studies are often small or retrospective, and may have conflicting results, they may be useful in providing direction for future confirmatory studies and may point to associations that could be confirmed in the future when more patient outcomes-based studies are available. We also summarize the clinically relevant evidence currently available to assist clinicians with providing personalized pharmacotherapy for patients requiring statin therapy. © 2017 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Targeting the DNA damage response in oncology: past, present and future perspectives.

PubMed

Basu, Bristi; Yap, Timothy A; Molife, L Rhoda; de Bono, Johann S

2012-05-01

The success of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibition in BRCA1 or BRCA2 deficient tumors as an anticancer strategy provided proof-of-concept for a synthetic lethality approach in oncology. There is therefore now active interest in expanding this approach to include other agents targeting the DNA damage response (DDR). We review lessons learnt from the development of inhibitors against DNA damage response mechanisms and envision the future of DNA repair inhibition in oncology. Preclinical synthetic lethality screens may potentially identify the best combinations of DNA-damaging drugs with inhibitors of DNA repair and the DDR or two agents acting within the DDR. Efforts are currently being made to establish robust and cost-effective assays that may be implemented within appropriate time-scales in parallel with future clinical studies. Detection of relevant mutations in a high-throughput manner, such as with next-generation sequencing for genes implicated in homologous recombination, including BRCA1, BRCA2, and ataxia telangiectasia mutated is anticipated. Novel approaches targeting the DDR are currently being evaluated and inhibitors of ATM, RAD51 and DNA-dependent protein kinase are now in early drug discovery and development. There remains great enthusiasm in oncology practice for pursuing the strategy of synthetic lethality. The future development of antitumor agents targeting the DDR should include detailed correlative biomarker work within early phase clinical studies wherever possible, with clear attempts to identify doses at which robust target modulation is observed.

The Cloudy Crystal Ball: A Projection of the Nature of the University Counseling Center in the Year 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maes, John L.

The nature of counseling in the year 2000 will be determined more by developing social needs than by existing programs. Since the direction of social development is toward increasingly dynamic, complex, and potentially stressful times, counseling services must be responsive to such conditions. The university counselor of the future will need to be…

Updating the southern nonnative plant watch list: the future of NNIP Monitoring in the south

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt; Sonja N. Oswalt; Lewis Zimmerman

2012-01-01

The Southern Research Station (SRS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program began monitoring nonnative invasive plant (NNIP) species in 2001 in response to a growing desire to track potential forest health threats on United States forest land. The SRS-FIA NNIP program has produced significant results and contributed considerably to the understanding of the...

Potential management of young-growth stands for understory vegetation and wildlife habitat in southeastern Alaska.

Treesearch

Thomas A. Hanley

2005-01-01

I review the current state of knowledge about dynamics of understory vegetation in postlogging succession and responses to silviculture treatments in southeastern Alaska, and I derive implications for future research and development. The classic Alaback [Ecology 63 (1982) 1932] model of postlogging succession has dominated ecological thinking in the region for the past...

Rotorcraft and Enabling Robotic Rescue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Larry A.

2010-01-01

This paper examines some of the issues underlying potential robotic rescue devices (RRD) in the context where autonomous or manned rotorcraft deployment of such robotic systems is a crucial attribute for their success in supporting future disaster relief and emergency response (DRER) missions. As a part of this discussion, work related to proof-of-concept prototyping of two notional RRD systems is summarized.

Future of Earth Orientation Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

introduced into the prediction process will increase . Potential drivers for change are discussed and possible directions for change are outlined. Keywords...is increasing as data latency has been reduced. However, all of these have been natural progressions; straightforward responses to improvements in...7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) U.S. Naval Observatory,3450 Massachusetts Ave NW,Washington,DC,20392 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION

Female mating preferences determine system-level evolution in a gene network model.

PubMed

Fierst, Janna L

2013-06-01

Environmental patterns of directional, stabilizing and fluctuating selection can influence the evolution of system-level properties like evolvability and mutational robustness. Intersexual selection produces strong phenotypic selection and these dynamics may also affect the response to mutation and the potential for future adaptation. In order to to assess the influence of mating preferences on these evolutionary properties, I modeled a male trait and female preference determined by separate gene regulatory networks. I studied three sexual selection scenarios: sexual conflict, a Gaussian model of the Fisher process described in Lande (in Proc Natl Acad Sci 78(6):3721-3725, 1981) and a good genes model in which the male trait signalled his mutational condition. I measured the effects these mating preferences had on the potential for traits and preferences to evolve towards new states, and mutational robustness of both the phenotype and the individual's overall viability. All types of sexual selection increased male phenotypic robustness relative to a randomly mating population. The Fisher model also reduced male evolvability and mutational robustness for viability. Under good genes sexual selection, males evolved an increased mutational robustness for viability. Females choosing their mates is a scenario that is sufficient to create selective forces that impact genetic evolution and shape the evolutionary response to mutation and environmental selection. These dynamics will inevitably develop in any population where sexual selection is operating, and affect the potential for future adaptation.

Technology Assessment for the Future Aeronautical Communications System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Budinger, James M. (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

To address emerging saturation in the VHF aeronautical bands allocated internationally for air traffic management communications, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has requested development of a common global solution through its Aeronautical Communications Panel (ACP). In response, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Eurocontrol initiated a joint study, with the support of NASA and U.S. and European contractors, to provide major findings on alternatives and recommendations to the ICAO ACP Working Group C (WG-C). Under an FAA/Eurocontrol cooperative research and development agreement, ACP WG-C Action Plan 17 (AP-17), commonly referred to as the Future Communications Study (FCS), NASA Glenn Research Center is responsible for the investigation of potential communications technologies that support the long-term mobile communication operational concepts of the FCS. This report documents the results of the first phase of the technology assessment and recommendations referred to in the Technology Pre-Screening Task 3.1 of AP-17. The prescreening identifies potential technologies that are under development in the industry and provides an initial assessment against a harmonized set of evaluation criteria that address high level capabilities, projected maturity for the time frame for usage in aviation, and potential applicability to aviation. A wide variety of candidate technologies were evaluated from several communications service categories including: cellular telephony; IEEE-802.xx standards; public safety radio; satellite and over-the-horizon communications; custom narrowband VHF; custom wideband; and military communications.

Psychophysiological Responsivity to Script-Driven Imagery: An Exploratory Study of the Effects of Eye Movements on Public Speaking Flashforwards.

PubMed

Kearns, Michelle; Engelhard, Iris M

2015-01-01

A principle characteristic of public speaking anxiety relates to intrusive mental images of potential future disasters. Previous research has found that the self-reported emotionality of such "flashforwards" can be reduced by a cognitively demanding, dual-task (e.g., making eye movements) performed whilst holding the mental image in-mind. The outcome measure in these earlier studies was participants' self-reported emotional intensity of the mental image. The current study (N = 34) explored whether an objective measure of emotionality would yield similar results in students with public speaking anxiety. A script-driven imagery procedure was used to measure psychophysiological responsivity to an audio script depicting a feared (public speaking) scenario before and after an eye movement intervention. Relative to the control condition (imagery only), those who made eye movements whilst holding a mental image of this scenario in-mind demonstrated a significant decrease in heart rate, which acted as a measure of emotionality. These findings add to a previous body of research demonstrating the beneficial qualities of dual-tasks and their potential for treatment of both past and future-oriented anxieties.

Psychophysiological Responsivity to Script-Driven Imagery: An Exploratory Study of the Effects of Eye Movements on Public Speaking Flashforwards

PubMed Central

Kearns, Michelle; Engelhard, Iris M.

2015-01-01

A principle characteristic of public speaking anxiety relates to intrusive mental images of potential future disasters. Previous research has found that the self-reported emotionality of such “flashforwards” can be reduced by a cognitively demanding, dual-task (e.g., making eye movements) performed whilst holding the mental image in-mind. The outcome measure in these earlier studies was participants’ self-reported emotional intensity of the mental image. The current study (N = 34) explored whether an objective measure of emotionality would yield similar results in students with public speaking anxiety. A script-driven imagery procedure was used to measure psychophysiological responsivity to an audio script depicting a feared (public speaking) scenario before and after an eye movement intervention. Relative to the control condition (imagery only), those who made eye movements whilst holding a mental image of this scenario in-mind demonstrated a significant decrease in heart rate, which acted as a measure of emotionality. These findings add to a previous body of research demonstrating the beneficial qualities of dual-tasks and their potential for treatment of both past and future-oriented anxieties. PMID:26321964

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Belyazid, S; Sullivan, T J; Sverdrup, H; Bowman, W D; Porter, E M

2014-04-01

To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010-2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coastlines of the past: clues for our future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, L.

2017-12-01

Coastlines are constantly evolving due to the long-term effects of sea-level change and human impacts, as well as in response to high-impact, short duration hazard events such as storms, tsunamis, and earthquakes. The sediments that accumulate in coastal systems such as estuaries, dunes, and beaches archieve the enviornmental record of the past, providing us a baseline with which to predict future coastal hazard magnitude and recurrence intervals. We study this record to understand future hazard potential, as well as to aid restoration efforts. Many coastal systems around the world have been degraded in the last few hundred years by human activity- these regions are important breeding grounds for commercially viable species, natural pollution filters, and barriers against inundation. Efforts to restore coastal systems often rely on data from historical sources to reconstruct past coastal conditions-the geological record can extend the timeframe with which we think about possible restoration points. In addition, studying past coastal response to enviornmental changes can aid the effort to restore systems to a point of sustainability and resilience instead of simply restoring to an arbirtary point in time.

Natural killer cells as a therapeutic tool for infectious diseases – current status and future perspectives

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Stanislaw; Tramsen, Lars; Rais, Bushra; Ullrich, Evelyn; Lehrnbecher, Thomas

2018-01-01

Natural Killer (NK) cells are involved in the host immune response against infections due to viral, bacterial and fungal pathogens, all of which are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised patients. Since the recovery of the immune system has a major impact on the outcome of an infectious complication, there is major interest in strengthening the host response in immunocompromised patients, either by using cytokines or growth factors or by adoptive cellular therapies transfusing immune cells such as granulocytes or pathogen-specific T-cells. To date, relatively little is known about the potential of adoptively transferring NK cells in immunocompromised patients with infectious complications, although the anti-cancer property of NK cells is already being investigated in the clinical setting. This review will focus on the antimicrobial properties of NK cells and the current standing and future perspectives of generating and using NK cells as immunotherapy in patients with infectious complications, an approach which is promising and might have an important clinical impact in the future. PMID:29755697

The potential biomarkers of drug addiction: proteomic and metabolomics challenges.

PubMed

Wang, Lv; Wu, Ning; Zhao, Tai-Yun; Li, Jin

2016-07-28

Drug addiction places a significant burden on society and individuals. Proteomics and metabolomics approaches pave the road for searching potential biomarkers to assist the diagnosis and treatment. This review summarized putative drug addiction-related biomarkers in proteomics and metabolomics studies and discussed challenges and prospects in future studies. Alterations of several hundred proteins and metabolites were reported when exposure to abused drug, which enriched in energy metabolism, oxidative stress response, protein modification and degradation, synaptic function and neurotrasmission, etc. Hsp70, peroxiredoxin-6 and α- and β-synuclein, as well as n-methylserotonin and purine metabolites, were promising as potential biomarker for drug addiction.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

The Influence of Temporal Orientation and Affective Frame on use of Ethical Decision-Making Strategies

PubMed Central

Martin, Laura E.; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Thiel, Chase E.; Antes, Alison L.; Mumford, Michael D.; Connelly, Shane; Devenport, Lynn D.

2011-01-01

This study examined the role of temporal orientation and affective frame in the execution of ethical decision-making strategies. In reflecting on a past experience or imagining a future experience, participants thought about experiences that they considered either positive or negative. The participants recorded their thinking about that experience by responding to several questions, and their responses were content-analyzed for the use of ethical decision-making strategies. The findings indicated that a future temporal orientation was associated with greater strategy use. Likewise, a positive affective frame was associated with greater strategy use. Future orientation may permit better strategy execution than a past orientation because it facilitates more objective, balanced contemplation of the reflected-upon situation, and minimizes potential self-threat associated with past behavior. A positive affective frame likely improves strategy execution because it facilitates active analysis of the experience. Future directions and implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:21572582

Biochemical adaptation to ocean acidification.

PubMed

Stillman, Jonathon H; Paganini, Adam W

2015-06-01

The change in oceanic carbonate chemistry due to increased atmospheric PCO2  has caused pH to decline in marine surface waters, a phenomenon known as ocean acidification (OA). The effects of OA on organisms have been shown to be widespread among diverse taxa from a wide range of habitats. The majority of studies of organismal response to OA are in short-term exposures to future levels of PCO2 . From such studies, much information has been gathered on plastic responses organisms may make in the future that are beneficial or harmful to fitness. Relatively few studies have examined whether organisms can adapt to negative-fitness consequences of plastic responses to OA. We outline major approaches that have been used to study the adaptive potential for organisms to OA, which include comparative studies and experimental evolution. Organisms that inhabit a range of pH environments (e.g. pH gradients at volcanic CO2 seeps or in upwelling zones) have great potential for studies that identify adaptive shifts that have occurred through evolution. Comparative studies have advanced our understanding of adaptation to OA by linking whole-organism responses with cellular mechanisms. Such optimization of function provides a link between genetic variation and adaptive evolution in tuning optimal function of rate-limiting cellular processes in different pH conditions. For example, in experimental evolution studies of organisms with short generation times (e.g. phytoplankton), hundreds of generations of growth under future conditions has resulted in fixed differences in gene expression related to acid-base regulation. However, biochemical mechanisms for adaptive responses to OA have yet to be fully characterized, and are likely to be more complex than simply changes in gene expression or protein modification. Finally, we present a hypothesis regarding an unexplored area for biochemical adaptation to ocean acidification. In this hypothesis, proteins and membranes exposed to the external environment, such as epithelial tissues, may be susceptible to changes in external pH. Such biochemical systems could be adapted to a reduced pH environment by adjustment of weak bonds in an analogous fashion to biochemical adaptation to temperature. Whether such biochemical adaptation to OA exists remains to be discovered. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Irresponsible and responsible resource management in obstetrics.

PubMed

Arabin, Birgit

2017-08-01

Low budgets constrain and high budgets stimulate choices. In high-income countries, this economic reality may lead to overuse of healthcare services and pose unnecessary risks for mothers and infants. Options for improvement can be created at different levels of healthcare systems. Pregnancy provides an effective opportunity to profile maternal risks and represents a vulnerable but potentially modifiable period from prenatal life to adulthood. In response to system-inherent false incentives, professional responsibility requires obstetricians to strive to improve the future health of families and their offspring despite disincentives for doing so. This chapter addresses professionally responsible resource management in obstetrics and identifies implications for patients, care givers, communities, policy makers, and academic faculties. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Associations between Responsible Beverage Service Laws and Binge Drinking and Alcohol-Impaired Driving

PubMed Central

Linde, Ann C.; Toomey, Traci L.; Wolfson, Julian; Lenk, Kathleen M.; Jones-Webb, Rhonda; Erickson, Darin J.

2017-01-01

We explored potential associations between the strength of state Responsible Beverage Service (RBS) laws and self-reported binge drinking and alcohol-impaired driving in the U.S. A multilevel logistic mixed-effects model was used, adjusting for potential confounders. Analyses were conducted on the overall BRFSS sample and drinkers only. Seven percent of BRFSS respondents lived in states with the strongest RBS laws, 15% reported binge drinking and 2% reported driving after having too much to drink at least once in the past 30 days. There was no evidence of a significant association between RBS law strength and self-reported binge drinking or alcohol-impaired driving. Future studies should include additional information about RBS laws and use a prospective research design. PMID:29225382

Frequency Regulation Services from Connected Residential Devices: Short Paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri; Jin, Xin; Vaidhynathan, Deepthi

In this paper, we demonstrate the potential benefits that residential buildings can provide for frequency regulation services in the electric power grid. In a hardware-in-the- loop (HIL) implementation, simulated homes along with a physical laboratory home are coordinated via a grid aggregator, and it is shown that their aggregate response has the potential to follow the regulation signal on a timescale of seconds. Connected (communication-enabled), devices in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) received demand response (DR) requests from a grid aggregator, and the devices responded accordingly to meet the signal while satisfying user comfortmore » bounds and physical hardware limitations. Future research will address the issues of cybersecurity threats, participation rates, and reducing equipment wear-and-tear while providing grid services.« less

Ocean acidification and fertilization in the antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri: the importance of polyspermy.

PubMed

Sewell, Mary A; Millar, Russell B; Yu, Pauline C; Kapsenberg, Lydia; Hofmann, Gretchen E

2014-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA), the reduction of the seawater pH as a result of increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, is an important climate change stressor in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic. We examined the impact of OA on fertilization success in the Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri using pH treatment conditions reflective of the current and near-future "pH seascape" for this species: current (control: pH 8.052, 384.1 μatm of pCO2), a high CO2 treatment approximating the 0.2-0.3 unit decrease in pH predicted for 2100 (high CO2: pH 7.830, 666.0 μatm of pCO2), and an intermediate medium CO2 (pH 7.967, 473.4 μatm of pCO2). Using a fertilization kinetics approach and mixed-effect models, we observed significant variation in the OA response between individual male/female pairs (N = 7) and a significant population-level increase (70-100%) in tb (time for a complete block to polyspermy) at medium and high CO2, a mechanism that potentially explains the higher levels of abnormal development seen in OA conditions. However, two pairs showed higher fertilization success with CO2 treatment and a nonsignificant effect. Future studies should focus on the mechanisms and levels of interindividual variability in OA response, so that we can consider the potential for selection and adaptation of organisms to a future ocean.

The role of nutrition in integrated early child development in the 21st century: contribution from the Maternal and Child Nutrition journal.

PubMed

Pérez-Escamilla, Rafael; Moran, Victoria Hall

2017-01-01

Even though it is widely recognized that early childhood development (ECD) is one of the most important predictors of future social capital and national productivity, the recently published ECD Lancet Series reports that about 250 million children under 5 years are at risk of not reaching their developmental potential, mainly as a result of poverty and social injustice. So why is this and what will it take to reverse this situation? The purpose of this special issue is to highlight important contributions from previously published articles in Maternal & Child Nutrition to the field of nutrition and ECD. The collection of papers presented in this special issue collectively indicates that although nutrition-specific interventions are essential for child development, they are not sufficient by themselves for children to reach their full developmental potential. This is because ECD is influenced by many other factors besides nutrition, including hand washing/sanitation, parenting skills, psychosocial stimulation, and social protection. Future research should focus on mixed-methods implementation science seeking to understand how best to translate evidence-based integrated ECD packages into effective intersectoral policies and programs on a large scale. In addition to health and nutrition, these programs need to consider and include responsive parenting (including responsive feeding), learning stimulation, education, and social protection. Future studies should also address if and how childhood obesity affects human physical, socioemotional, and cognitive development. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Molecular and Microbial Mechanisms Increasing Soil C Storage Under Future Rates of Anthropogenic N Deposition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zak, Donald R.

A growing body of evidence reveals that anthropogenic N deposition can reduce the microbial decay of plant detritus and increase soil C storage across a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems. This aspect of global change has the potential to constrain the accumulation of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth’s atmosphere, and hence slow the pace of climate warming. The molecular and microbial mechanisms underlying this biogeochemical response are not understood, and they are not a component of any coupled climate-biogeochemical model estimating ecosystem C storage, and hence, the future climate of an N-enriched Earth. Here, we report the use ofmore » genomic-enabled approaches to identify the molecular underpinnings of the microbial mechanisms leading to greater soil C storage in response to anthropogenic N deposition, thereby enabling us to better anticipate changes in soil C storage.« less

Regulatory T cells: present facts and future hopes.

PubMed

Becker, Christian; Stoll, Sabine; Bopp, Tobias; Schmitt, Edgar; Jonuleit, Helmut

2006-09-01

Naturally occurring CD4(+)CD25(+)Foxp3(+) regulatory T cells and several subsets of induced suppressor T cells are key players of the immune tolerance network and control the induction and effector phase of our immunological defense system. These T cell populations actively control the properties of other immune cells by suppressing their functional activity to prevent autoimmunity and transplant rejection but also influence the immune response to allergens as well as against tumor cells and pathogens. Even though we are far from completely understanding the molecular and cellular mechanisms that manage the different regulatory T cell populations, increasing evidence exists about their functional importance. The knowledge on their induction and activation opens the possibility for their selective manipulation in vivo as an attractive approach for an immunotherapy of unwanted immune responses. This review summarizes this knowledge and discusses the potential of regulatory T cells for novel immunointervention strategies in the future.

Responsible healthcare innovation: anticipatory governance of nanodiagnostics for theranostics medicine.

PubMed

Fisher, Erik; Boenink, Marianne; van der Burg, Simone; Woodbury, Neal

2012-11-01

Theranostics signals the integrated application of molecular diagnostics, therapeutic treatment and patient response monitoring. Such integration has hitherto neglected another crucial dimension: coproduction of theranostic scientific knowledge, novel technological development and broader sociopolitical systems whose boundaries are highly porous. Nanodiagnostics applications to theranostics are one of the most contested and potentially volatile postgenomics innovation trajectories as they build on past and current tensions and promises surrounding both nanotechnology and personalized medicine. Recent science policy research suggests that beneficial outcomes of innovations do not simply flow from the generation of scientific knowledge and technological capability in a linear or automatic fashion. Thus, attempts to offset public concerns about controversial emerging technologies by expert risk assurances can be unproductive. Anticipation provides a more robust basis for governance that supports genuine healthcare progress. This article presents a synthesis of novel policy approaches that directly inform theranostics medicine and the future(s) of postgenomics healthcare.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakelin, Sarah L.; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.

2015-12-01

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030-2040) and the far future (2082-2099) are compared to the recent past (1983-2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production (netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

"Without bodily autonomy we are not free": exploring women's concerns about future access to contraception following the 2016 US presidential election.

PubMed

Judge, Colleen P; Wolgemuth, Tierney E; Hamm, Megan E; Borrero, Sonya

2017-11-01

Following the 2016US presidential election, social media posts and news stories amplified concerns about the potential for reduced access to contraception under the incoming administration and urged women to seek long-acting reversible contraception. We aimed to describe women's concerns about future access to contraception, in their own words. A social-media-based, anonymous online survey assessing thoughts and concerns about future access to contraception was distributed to reproductive-aged US women for 1 week in mid-January 2017. Participants who were concerned about future access to contraception could share their thoughts and feelings in an open-ended comments box. We qualitatively analyzed 449 written responses for content and themes, with the goal of characterizing key concerns. Women who provided written comments had a mean age of 28years; 85% were white, 88% had at least a college degree, and 93% identified as Democratic or Democratic-leaning. Women were highly concerned about future affordability of contraceptive methods due to potential loss of insurance, reduced insurance coverage for contraceptive methods and reduced access to low-cost care at Planned Parenthood. Many also worried about increased restrictions on abortion. Participants' concerns regarding access to contraception and abortion centered around themes of reproductive and bodily autonomy, which women described as fundamental rights. Women in this study expressed considerable fear and uncertainty regarding their future access to contraception and abortion following the 2016US presidential election. The potential for restricted access to affordable contraception and abortion was viewed as an unacceptable limitation on bodily autonomy. As the future of US health care policy is debated, many women are concerned about the impact of policy changes on their ability to access affordable contraception and abortion, which many view as essential to the preservation of bodily and reproductive autonomy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

2015-12-01

The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 indicate decreases in projected discharge and extent of inundated area on the mainstem Amazon by the late 21st century owing to influences of future climate change only.

Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason P.; Argueso, Daniel; Fita, Lluis; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-11-01

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identified using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simulations using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional climate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100-200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be fewer ECLs, with weaker intensity in the future. There could also be a seasonal shift in ECLs from cool months to warm months. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the water security on the east coast of Australia.

Psychophysiological Responses to Group Exercise Training Sessions: Does Exercise Intensity Matter?

PubMed

Vandoni, Matteo; Codrons, Erwan; Marin, Luca; Correale, Luca; Bigliassi, Marcelo; Buzzachera, Cosme Franklim

2016-01-01

Group exercise training programs were introduced as a strategy for improving health and fitness and potentially reducing dropout rates. This study examined the psychophysiological responses to group exercise training sessions. Twenty-seven adults completed two group exercise training sessions of moderate and vigorous exercise intensities in a random and counterbalanced order. The %HRR and the exertional and arousal responses to vigorous session were higher than those during the moderate session (p<0.05). Consequently, the affective responses to vigorous session were less pleasant than those during moderate session (p<0.05). These results suggest that the psychophysiological responses to group exercise training sessions are intensity-dependent. From an adherence perspective, interventionists are encouraged to emphasize group exercise training sessions at a moderate intensity to maximize affective responses and to minimize exertional responses, which in turn may positively affect future exercise behavior.

Future remnant liver function as predictive factor for the hypertrophy response after portal vein embolization.

PubMed

Cieslak, Kasia P; Huisman, Floor; Bais, Thomas; Bennink, Roelof J; van Lienden, Krijn P; Verheij, Joanne; Besselink, Marc G; Busch, Olivier R C; van Gulik, Thomas M

2017-07-01

Preoperative portal vein embolization is widely used to increase the future remnant liver. Identification of nonresponders to portal vein embolization is essential because these patients may benefit from associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy (ALPPS), which induces a more powerful hypertrophy response. 99m Tc-mebrofenin hepatobiliary scintigraphy is a quantitative method for assessment of future remnant liver function with a calculated cutoff value for the prediction of postoperative liver failure. The aim of this study was to analyze future remnant liver function before portal vein embolization to predict sufficient functional hypertrophy response after portal vein embolization. Sixty-three patients who underwent preoperative portal vein embolization and computed tomography imaging were included. Hepatobiliary scintigraphy was performed to determine pre-portal vein embolization and post-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function. Receiver operator characteristic analysis of pre-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function was performed to identify patients who would meet the post-portal vein embolization cutoff value for sufficient function (ie, 2.7%/min/m 2 ). Mean pre-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function was 1.80% ± 0.45%/min/m 2 and increased to 2.89% ± 0.97%/min/m 2 post-portal vein embolization. Receiver operator characteristic analysis in 33 patients who did not receive chemotherapy revealed that a pre-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function of ≥1.72%/min/m 2 was able to identify patients who would meet the safe future remnant liver function cutoff value 3 weeks after portal vein embolization (area under the curve = 0.820). The predictive value was less pronounced in 30 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (area under the curve = 0.618). A total of 45 of 63 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 5 of 45 developed postoperative liver failure; 4 of 5 patients had a post-portal vein embolization future remnant liver function below the cutoff value for safe resection. When selecting patients for portal vein embolization, future remnant liver function assessed with hepatobiliary scintigraphy can be used as a predictor of insufficient functional hypertrophy after portal vein embolization, especially in nonchemotherapy patients. These patients are potential candidates for ALPPS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Responses of 20 lake-watersheds in the Adirondack region of New York to historical and potential future acidic deposition.

PubMed

Zhou, Qingtao; Driscoll, Charles T; Sullivan, Timothy J

2015-04-01

Critical loads (CLs) and dynamic critical loads (DCLs) are important tools to guide the protection of ecosystems from air pollution. In order to quantify decreases in acidic deposition necessary to protect sensitive aquatic species, we calculated CLs and DCLs of sulfate (SO4(2-))+nitrate (NO3-) for 20 lake-watersheds from the Adirondack region of New York using the dynamic model, PnET-BGC. We evaluated lake water chemistry and fish and total zooplankton species richness in response to historical acidic deposition and under future deposition scenarios. The model performed well in simulating measured chemistry of Adirondack lakes. Current deposition of SO4(2-)+NO3-, calcium (Ca2+) weathering rate and lake acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in 1850 were related to the extent of historical acidification (1850-2008). Changes in lake Al3+ concentrations since the onset of acidic deposition were also related to Ca2+ weathering rate and ANC in 1850. Lake ANC and fish and total zooplankton species richness were projected to increase under hypothetical decreases in future deposition. However, model projections suggest that lake ecosystems will not achieve complete chemical and biological recovery in the future. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The past, present, and future of National Aeronautics and Space Administration spaceflight diet in support of microgravity rodent experiments.

PubMed

Sun, Gwo-Shing; Tou, Janet C; Yu, Diane; Girten, Beverly E; Cohen, Jacob

2014-02-01

Rodents have been the most frequently flown animal model used to study physiological responses to the space environment. In support of future of space exploration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) envisions an animal research program focused on rodents. Therefore, the development of a rodent diet that is suitable for the spaceflight environment including long duration spaceflight is a high priority. Recognizing the importance of nutrition in affecting spaceflight physiological responses and ensuring reliable biomedical and biological science return, NASA developed the nutrient-upgraded rodent food bar (NuRFB) as a standard diet for rodent spaceflight. Depending on future animal habitat hardware and planned spaceflight experiments, modification of the NuRFB or development of a new diet formulation may be needed, particularly for long term spaceflights. Research in this area consists primarily of internal technical reports that are not readily accessible. Therefore, the aims of this contribution are to provide a brief history of the development of rodent spaceflight diets, to review the present diet used in rodent spaceflight studies, and to discuss some of the challenges and potential solutions for diets to be used in future long-term rodent spaceflight studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical implications of basic science discoveries: induced pluripotent stem cell therapy in transplantation--a potential role for immunologic tolerance.

PubMed

Wertheim, J A; Leventhal, J R

2015-04-01

Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) hold the potential for future development of genetically identical tissues from almost any mature cell lineage. For clinical applications in cell therapy and transplantation, it may provide a means to one-day restore dysfunctional or damaged tissue without the need for immunosuppression. A recent study by de Almeida et al published in the journal Nature Communications indicates that iPSCs may indeed elicit an immune response that evolves as cells differentiate toward maturity to induce a state of tolerance within a recipient animal. If these early findings hold true, it suggests a possible explanation for self-recognition of mature cells derived from iPSCs for use in future therapeutic interventions in transplantation such as cellular therapy or tissue engineering. © Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Pulsed laser versus electrical energy for peripheral nerve stimulation

PubMed Central

Wells, Jonathon; Konrad, Peter; Kao, Chris; Jansen, E. Duco; Mahadevan-Jansen, Anita

2010-01-01

Transient optical neural stimulation has previously been shown to elicit highly controlled, artifact-free potentials within the nervous system in a non-contact fashion without resulting in damage to tissue. This paper presents the physiologic validity of elicited nerve and muscle potentials from pulsed laser induced stimulation of the peripheral nerve in a comparative study with the standard method of electrically evoked potentials. Herein, the fundamental physical properties underlying the two techniques are contrasted. Key laser parameters for efficient optical stimulation of the peripheral nerve are detailed. Strength response curves are shown to be linear for each stimulation modality, although fewer axons can be recruited with optically evoked potentials. Results compare the relative transient energy requirements for stimulation using each technique and demonstrate that optical methods can selectively excite functional nerve stimulation. Adjacent stimulation and recording of compound nerve potentials in their entirety from optical and electrical stimulation are presented, with optical responses shown to be free of any stimulation artifact. Thus, use of a pulsed laser exhibits some advantages when compared to standard electrical means for excitation of muscle potentials in the peripheral nerve in the research domain and possibly for clinical diagnostics in the future. PMID:17537515

Application of the Convolution Formalism to the Ocean Tide Potential: Results from the Gravity and Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desai, S. D.; Yuan, D. -N.

2006-01-01

A computationally efficient approach to reducing omission errors in ocean tide potential models is derived and evaluated using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Ocean tide height models are usually explicitly available at a few frequencies, and a smooth unit response is assumed to infer the response across the tidal spectrum. The convolution formalism of Munk and Cartwright (1966) models this response function with a Fourier series. This allows the total ocean tide height, and therefore the total ocean tide potential, to be modeled as a weighted sum of past, present, and future values of the tide-generating potential. Previous applications of the convolution formalism have usually been limited to tide height models, but we extend it to ocean tide potential models. We use luni-solar ephemerides to derive the required tide-generating potential so that the complete spectrum of the ocean tide potential is efficiently represented. In contrast, the traditionally adopted harmonic model of the ocean tide potential requires the explicit sum of the contributions from individual tidal frequencies. It is therefore subject to omission errors from neglected frequencies and is computationally more intensive. Intersatellite range rate data from the GRACE mission are used to compare convolution and harmonic models of the ocean tide potential. The monthly range rate residual variance is smaller by 4-5%, and the daily residual variance is smaller by as much as 15% when using the convolution model than when using a harmonic model that is defined by twice the number of parameters.

What tourist business managers must learn from disaster research.

PubMed

Drabek, Thomas E

2016-01-01

Death and social disruption caused by disasters of varying forms will continue to increase in the future. So too will the impacts on tourism, now one of the fastest growing and largest sectors of the worldwide economy. Tourist business managers must implement evidence-based preparedness activities to enhance the survival potential and future profitability of their firms. Drawing upon recent research studies of the tourist industry during times of crisis and the broad social science knowledge base regarding human responses to disaster, seven key lessons are described. Emergency managers must facilitate the incorporation of these lessons into the culture of tourist business managers.

Evidence base and future research directions in the management of low back pain

PubMed Central

Abbott, Allan

2016-01-01

Low back pain (LBP) is a prevalent and costly condition. Awareness of valid and reliable patient history taking, physical examination and clinical testing is important for diagnostic accuracy. Stratified care which targets treatment to patient subgroups based on key characteristics is reliant upon accurate diagnostics. Models of stratified care that can potentially improve treatment effects include prognostic risk profiling for persistent LBP, likely response to specific treatment based on clinical prediction models or suspected underlying causal mechanisms. The focus of this editorial is to highlight current research status and future directions for LBP diagnostics and stratified care. PMID:27004162

Microbial community dynamics induced by rewetting dry soil: summer precipitation matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, Romain; Osborne, Catherine; Firestone, Mary

2015-04-01

The massive soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. We investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response, reflecting contrasting life-strategies for different groups. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Episodic and semantic components of autobiographical memories and imagined future events in post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Brown, Adam D; Addis, Donna Rose; Romano, Tracy A; Marmar, Charles R; Bryant, Richard A; Hirst, William; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to retrieve autobiographical memories with less episodic specificity, referred to as overgeneralised autobiographical memory. In line with evidence that autobiographical memory overlaps with one's capacity to imagine the future, recent work has also shown that individuals with PTSD also imagine themselves in the future with less episodic specificity. To date most studies quantify episodic specificity by the presence of a distinct event. However, this method does not distinguish between the numbers of internal (episodic) and external (semantic) details, which can provide additional insights into remembering the past and imagining the future. This study employed the Autobiographical Interview (AI) coding scheme to the autobiographical memory and imagined future event narratives generated by combat veterans with and without PTSD. Responses were coded for the number of internal and external details. Compared to combat veterans without PTSD, those with PTSD generated more external than internal details when recalling past or imagining future events, and fewer internal details were associated with greater symptom severity. The potential mechanisms underlying these bidirectional deficits and clinical implications are discussed.

Radiogenomics and radiotherapy response modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Naqa, Issam; Kerns, Sarah L.; Coates, James; Luo, Yi; Speers, Corey; West, Catharine M. L.; Rosenstein, Barry S.; Ten Haken, Randall K.

2017-08-01

Advances in patient-specific information and biotechnology have contributed to a new era of computational medicine. Radiogenomics has emerged as a new field that investigates the role of genetics in treatment response to radiation therapy. Radiation oncology is currently attempting to embrace these recent advances and add to its rich history by maintaining its prominent role as a quantitative leader in oncologic response modeling. Here, we provide an overview of radiogenomics starting with genotyping, data aggregation, and application of different modeling approaches based on modifying traditional radiobiological methods or application of advanced machine learning techniques. We highlight the current status and potential for this new field to reshape the landscape of outcome modeling in radiotherapy and drive future advances in computational oncology.

Army Research Laboratory S&T Campaign Plans 2015-2035

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

addressing propagation effects, impact of wind noise on detection range and angular accuracy. Use of vector sensors is one approach for potential advances...for the future warfighter, such as new protective and responsive materials, sensors , and munitions. Polymer Chemistry explores the molecular-level...ultimately enable the design and development of novel materials, molecular sensors , and nanoscale machines that exploit the exceptional capabilities of

Crossing the Finish Line: Career Adaptability and Its Relationship to Athletic Identity, Academic Motivation, and Role Conflict for Division I Student-Athletes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Letawsky Shultz, Nicole

2017-01-01

The responsibilities of being a Division I student-athlete often leave little time for experiences outside of sport that are critical for their future careers. Many student-athletes have unrealistic expectations of competing in their sport after college, while others expend little effort exploring potential careers. This study examines how career…

Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to abiotic conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), which are the most widespread ecosystems in semiarid western North America, have been affected by land use practices and invasive species. Loss of big sagebrush and the decline of associated species, such as greater sage-grouse, are a concern to land managers and conservationists. However, big sagebrush regeneration remains difficult to achieve by restoration and reclamation efforts and there is no regeneration simulation model available. We present here the first process-based, daily time-step, simulation model to predict yearly big sagebrush regeneration including relevant germination and seedling responses to abiotic factors. We estimated values, uncertainty, and importance of 27 model parameters using a total of 1435 site-years of observation. Our model explained 74% of variability of number of years with successful regeneration at 46 sites. It also achieved 60% overall accuracy predicting yearly regeneration success/failure. Our results identify specific future research needed to improve our understanding of big sagebrush regeneration, including data at the subspecies level and improved parameter estimates for start of seed dispersal, modified wet thermal-time model of germination, and soil water potential influences. We found that relationships between big sagebrush regeneration and climate conditions were site specific, varying across the distribution of big sagebrush. This indicates that statistical models based on climate are unsuitable for understanding range-wide regeneration patterns or for assessing the potential consequences of changing climate on sagebrush regeneration and underscores the value of this process-based model. We used our model to predict potential regeneration across the range of sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States, which confirmed that seedling survival is a limiting factor, whereas germination is not. Our results also suggested that modeled regeneration suitability is necessary but not sufficient to explain sagebrush presence. We conclude that future assessment of big sagebrush responses to climate change will need to account for responses of regenerative stages using a process-based understanding, such as provided by our model.

Recommendations for imaging tumor response in neurofibromatosis clinical trials

PubMed Central

Ardern-Holmes, Simone L.; Babovic-Vuksanovic, Dusica; Barker, Fred G.; Connor, Steve; Evans, D. Gareth; Fisher, Michael J.; Goutagny, Stephane; Harris, Gordon J.; Jaramillo, Diego; Karajannis, Matthias A.; Korf, Bruce R.; Mautner, Victor; Plotkin, Scott R.; Poussaint, Tina Y.; Robertson, Kent; Shih, Chie-Schin; Widemann, Brigitte C.

2013-01-01

Objective: Neurofibromatosis (NF)-related benign tumors such as plexiform neurofibromas (PN) and vestibular schwannomas (VS) can cause substantial morbidity. Clinical trials directed at these tumors have become available. Due to differences in disease manifestations and the natural history of NF-related tumors, response criteria used for solid cancers (1-dimensional/RECIST [Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors] and bidimensional/World Health Organization) have limited applicability. No standardized response criteria for benign NF tumors exist. The goal of the Tumor Measurement Working Group of the REiNS (Response Evaluation in Neurofibromatosis and Schwannomatosis) committee is to propose consensus guidelines for the evaluation of imaging response in clinical trials for NF tumors. Methods: Currently used imaging endpoints, designs of NF clinical trials, and knowledge of the natural history of NF-related tumors, in particular PN and VS, were reviewed. Consensus recommendations for response evaluation for future studies were developed based on this review and the expertise of group members. Results: MRI with volumetric analysis is recommended to sensitively and reproducibly evaluate changes in tumor size in clinical trials. Volumetric analysis requires adherence to specific imaging recommendations. A 20% volume change was chosen to indicate a decrease or increase in tumor size. Use of these criteria in future trials will enable meaningful comparison of results across studies. Conclusions: The proposed imaging response evaluation guidelines, along with validated clinical outcome measures, will maximize the ability to identify potentially active agents for patients with NF and benign tumors. PMID:24249804

Recommendations for imaging tumor response in neurofibromatosis clinical trials.

PubMed

Dombi, Eva; Ardern-Holmes, Simone L; Babovic-Vuksanovic, Dusica; Barker, Fred G; Connor, Steve; Evans, D Gareth; Fisher, Michael J; Goutagny, Stephane; Harris, Gordon J; Jaramillo, Diego; Karajannis, Matthias A; Korf, Bruce R; Mautner, Victor; Plotkin, Scott R; Poussaint, Tina Y; Robertson, Kent; Shih, Chie-Schin; Widemann, Brigitte C

2013-11-19

Neurofibromatosis (NF)-related benign tumors such as plexiform neurofibromas (PN) and vestibular schwannomas (VS) can cause substantial morbidity. Clinical trials directed at these tumors have become available. Due to differences in disease manifestations and the natural history of NF-related tumors, response criteria used for solid cancers (1-dimensional/RECIST [Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors] and bidimensional/World Health Organization) have limited applicability. No standardized response criteria for benign NF tumors exist. The goal of the Tumor Measurement Working Group of the REiNS (Response Evaluation in Neurofibromatosis and Schwannomatosis) committee is to propose consensus guidelines for the evaluation of imaging response in clinical trials for NF tumors. Currently used imaging endpoints, designs of NF clinical trials, and knowledge of the natural history of NF-related tumors, in particular PN and VS, were reviewed. Consensus recommendations for response evaluation for future studies were developed based on this review and the expertise of group members. MRI with volumetric analysis is recommended to sensitively and reproducibly evaluate changes in tumor size in clinical trials. Volumetric analysis requires adherence to specific imaging recommendations. A 20% volume change was chosen to indicate a decrease or increase in tumor size. Use of these criteria in future trials will enable meaningful comparison of results across studies. The proposed imaging response evaluation guidelines, along with validated clinical outcome measures, will maximize the ability to identify potentially active agents for patients with NF and benign tumors.

Smart micro/nanoparticles in stimulus-responsive drug/gene delivery systems.

PubMed

Karimi, Mahdi; Ghasemi, Amir; Sahandi Zangabad, Parham; Rahighi, Reza; Moosavi Basri, S Masoud; Mirshekari, H; Amiri, M; Shafaei Pishabad, Z; Aslani, A; Bozorgomid, M; Ghosh, D; Beyzavi, A; Vaseghi, A; Aref, A R; Haghani, L; Bahrami, S; Hamblin, Michael R

2016-03-07

New achievements in the realm of nanoscience and innovative techniques of nanomedicine have moved micro/nanoparticles (MNPs) to the point of becoming actually useful for practical applications in the near future. Various differences between the extracellular and intracellular environments of cancerous and normal cells and the particular characteristics of tumors such as physicochemical properties, neovasculature, elasticity, surface electrical charge, and pH have motivated the design and fabrication of inventive "smart" MNPs for stimulus-responsive controlled drug release. These novel MNPs can be tailored to be responsive to pH variations, redox potential, enzymatic activation, thermal gradients, magnetic fields, light, and ultrasound (US), or can even be responsive to dual or multi-combinations of different stimuli. This unparalleled capability has increased their importance as site-specific controlled drug delivery systems (DDSs) and has encouraged their rapid development in recent years. An in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms of these DDS approaches is expected to further contribute to this groundbreaking field of nanomedicine. Smart nanocarriers in the form of MNPs that can be triggered by internal or external stimulus are summarized and discussed in the present review, including pH-sensitive peptides and polymers, redox-responsive micelles and nanogels, thermo- or magnetic-responsive nanoparticles (NPs), mechanical- or electrical-responsive MNPs, light or ultrasound-sensitive particles, and multi-responsive MNPs including dual stimuli-sensitive nanosheets of graphene. This review highlights the recent advances of smart MNPs categorized according to their activation stimulus (physical, chemical, or biological) and looks forward to future pharmaceutical applications.

Combining near-infrared spectroscopy with electroencephalography and repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Näsi, Tiina; Kotilahti, Kalle; Mäki, Hanna; Nissilä, Ilkka; Meriläinen, Pekka

2009-07-01

The objective of the study was to assess the usability of a near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) device in multimodal measurements. We combined NIRS with electroencephalography (EEG) to record hemodynamic responses and evoked potentials simultaneously, and with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to investigate hemodynamic responses to repetitive TMS (rTMS). Hemodynamic responses and visual evoked potentials (VEPs) to 3, 6, and 12 s stimuli consisting of pattern-reversing checkerboards were successfully recorded in the NIRS/EEG measurement, and ipsi- and contralateral hemodynamic responses to 0.5, 1, and 2 Hz rTMS in the NIRS/TMS measurement. In the NIRS/EEG measurements, the amplitudes of the hemodynamic responses increased from 3- to 6-s stimulus, but not from 6- to 12-s stimulus, and the VEPs showed peaks N75, P100, and N135. In the NIRS/TMS measurements, the 2-Hz stimulus produced the strongest hemodynamic responses compared to the 0.5- and 1-Hz stimuli. In two subjects oxyhemoglobin concentration decreased and in one increased as a consequence of the 2-Hz rTMS. To locate the origin of the measured NIRS responses, methods have to be developed to investigate TMS-induced scalp muscle contractions. In the future, multimodal measurements may prove useful in monitoring or treating diseases such as stroke or Alzheimer's disease.

Identifying ultrasensitive HGF dose-response functions in a 3D mammalian system for synthetic morphogenesis.

PubMed

Senthivel, Vivek Raj; Sturrock, Marc; Piedrafita, Gabriel; Isalan, Mark

2016-12-16

Nonlinear responses to signals are widespread natural phenomena that affect various cellular processes. Nonlinearity can be a desirable characteristic for engineering living organisms because it can lead to more switch-like responses, similar to those underlying the wiring in electronics. Steeper functions are described as ultrasensitive, and can be applied in synthetic biology by using various techniques including receptor decoys, multiple co-operative binding sites, and sequential positive feedbacks. Here, we explore the inherent non-linearity of a biological signaling system to identify functions that can potentially be exploited using cell genome engineering. For this, we performed genome-wide transcription profiling to identify genes with ultrasensitive response functions to Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF). We identified 3,527 genes that react to increasing concentrations of HGF, in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells, grown as cysts in 3D collagen cell culture. By fitting a generic Hill function to the dose-responses of these genes we obtained a measure of the ultrasensitivity of HGF-responsive genes, identifying a subset with higher apparent Hill coefficients (e.g. MMP1, TIMP1, SNORD75, SNORD86 and ERRFI1). The regulatory regions of these genes are potential candidates for future engineering of synthetic mammalian gene circuits requiring nonlinear responses to HGF signalling.

Fasciola hepatica vaccine: we may not be there yet but we're on the right road.

PubMed

Molina-Hernández, Verónica; Mulcahy, Grace; Pérez, Jose; Martínez-Moreno, Álvaro; Donnelly, Sheila; O'Neill, Sandra M; Dalton, John P; Cwiklinski, Krystyna

2015-02-28

Major advances have been made in identifying potential vaccine molecules for the control of fasciolosis in livestock but we have yet to reach the level of efficacy required for commercialisation. The pathogenesis of fasciolosis is associated with liver damage that is inflicted by migrating and feeding immature flukes as well as host inflammatory immune responses to parasite-secreted molecules and tissue damage alarm signals. Immune suppression/modulation by the parasites prevents the development of protective immune responses as evidenced by the lack of immunity observed in naturally and experimentally infected animals. In our opinion, future efforts need to focus on understanding how parasites invade and penetrate the tissues of their hosts and how they potentiate and control the ensuing immune responses, particularly in the first days of infection. Emerging 'omics' data employed in an unbiased approach are helping us understand liver fluke biology and, in parallel with new immunological data, to identify molecules that are essential to parasite development and accessible to vaccine-induced immune responses. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chromatic and Achromatic Spatial Resolution of Local Field Potentials in Awake Cortex

PubMed Central

Jansen, Michael; Li, Xiaobing; Lashgari, Reza; Kremkow, Jens; Bereshpolova, Yulia; Swadlow, Harvey A.; Zaidi, Qasim; Alonso, Jose-Manuel

2015-01-01

Local field potentials (LFPs) have become an important measure of neuronal population activity in the brain and could provide robust signals to guide the implant of visual cortical prosthesis in the future. However, it remains unclear whether LFPs can detect weak cortical responses (e.g., cortical responses to equiluminant color) and whether they have enough visual spatial resolution to distinguish different chromatic and achromatic stimulus patterns. By recording from awake behaving macaques in primary visual cortex, here we demonstrate that LFPs respond robustly to pure chromatic stimuli and exhibit ∼2.5 times lower spatial resolution for chromatic than achromatic stimulus patterns, a value that resembles the ratio of achromatic/chromatic resolution measured with psychophysical experiments in humans. We also show that, although the spatial resolution of LFP decays with visual eccentricity as is also the case for single neurons, LFPs have higher spatial resolution and show weaker response suppression to low spatial frequencies than spiking multiunit activity. These results indicate that LFP recordings are an excellent approach to measure spatial resolution from local populations of neurons in visual cortex including those responsive to color. PMID:25416722

Studying plant–pollinator interactions in a changing climate: A review of approaches1

PubMed Central

Byers, Diane L.

2017-01-01

Plant–pollinator interactions are potentially at risk due to climate change. Because of the spatial and temporal variation associated with the effects of climate change and the responses of both actors, research to assess this interaction requires creative approaches. This review focuses on assessments of plants’ and pollinators’ altered phenology in response to environmental changes, as phenology is one of the key responses. I reviewed research methods with the goal of presenting the wide diversity of available techniques for addressing changes in these interactions. Approaches ranged from use of historical specimens to multisite experimental community studies; while differing in depth of historical information and community interactions, all contribute to assessment of phenology changes. Particularly insightful were those studies that directly assessed the environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales and the responses of plants and pollinators at these scales. Longer-term studies across environmental gradients, potentially with reciprocal transplants, enable an assessment of climate impacts at both scales. While changes in phenology are well studied, the impacts of phenology changes are not. Future research should include approaches to address this gap. PMID:28690933

Psychological response to the Oklahoma City bombing.

PubMed

Krug, R S; Nixon, S J; Vincent, R

1996-01-01

The bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Office Building in Oklahoma City was the most devastating terrorist activity that has occurred in America. Prevention of revictimization of persons seriously affected by the bombing was central to the planned response to this tragedy. Coordination and collaboration among local, state, and national agencies promoted effective clinical services provision, research facilitation, and prevention of revictimization. Information gathered from this cooperative effort will contribute to the effort to minimize the potential for such tragedies in the future as well as help to develop prevention and intervention strategies to reduce the effects when the next such disaster occurs.

Potential Impacts Related to the Air Training Command Realignments. Institutional Characteristics, Transportation, Civilian Community Utilities, Land Use for Craig AFB, Alabama, Webb AFB, Texas, Columbus AFB, Mississippi, Laughlin AFB, Texas, Reese AFB, Texas, Vance AFB, Oklahoma

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-12-30

response and 70.4 percent civilian response, extend to 100 percent population, 1975; Counity Census Data, General Social =0 Economic Characteristics. 25...transportation problems exist and the alternative action is not txpected to disturb the situation in the future. 86 On-Base (AFERN 4.4.1.3) No major problema of...values could increase in specific residential areas that are perceived as meeting certain economic and social needs where current 7acancies are minimal

Stimuli-Responsive Polymers for Actuation.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiang Matthew; Serpe, Michael J

2017-06-02

A variety of stimuli-responsive polymers have been developed and used as actuators and/or artificial muscles, with the movement being driven by an external stimulus, such as electrical potential. This Review highlights actuators constructed from liquid-crystal elastomers, dielectric elastomers, ionic polymers, and conducting polymers. The Review covers recent examples of a variety of actuators generated from these materials and their utility. The mechanism of actuation will be detailed for most examples in order to stimulate possible future research, and lead to new applications and advanced applications. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Hypnotherapy to Reduce Hot Flashes: Examination of Response Expectancies as a Mediator of Outcomes

PubMed Central

Sliwinski, Jim R.; Elkins, Gary R.

2017-01-01

The mechanism of action responsible for hypnotherapy’s effect in reducing hot flashes is not yet known. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of response expectancies as a potential mediator. Hypnotizability was also tested as an effect moderator. Data were collected from a sample of 172 postmenopausal women, who had been randomized to receive either a 5-week hypnosis intervention or structured attention counseling. Measures of response expectancies were analyzed to determine if the relationship between group assignment and hot flashes frequency was mediated by expectancies for treatment efficacy. A series of simple mediation and conditional process analyses did not support mediation of the relationship between treatment condition and hot flash frequency through response expectancy. The effect of hypnotherapy in reducing hot flashes does not appear to be due to placebo effects as determined by response expectancies. Implications for clinical practice and future research are discussed. PMID:28528570

Molecular motions that shape the cardiac action potential: Insights from voltage clamp fluorometry.

PubMed

Zhu, Wandi; Varga, Zoltan; Silva, Jonathan R

2016-01-01

Very recently, voltage-clamp fluorometry (VCF) protocols have been developed to observe the membrane proteins responsible for carrying the ventricular ionic currents that form the action potential (AP), including those carried by the cardiac Na(+) channel, NaV1.5, the L-type Ca(2+) channel, CaV1.2, the Na(+)/K(+) ATPase, and the rapid and slow components of the delayed rectifier, KV11.1 and KV7.1. This development is significant, because VCF enables simultaneous observation of ionic current kinetics with conformational changes occurring within specific channel domains. The ability gained from VCF, to connect nanoscale molecular movement to ion channel function has revealed how the voltage-sensing domains (VSDs) control ion flux through channel pores, mechanisms of post-translational regulation and the molecular pathology of inherited mutations. In the future, we expect that this data will be of great use for the creation of multi-scale computational AP models that explicitly represent ion channel conformations, connecting molecular, cell and tissue electrophysiology. Here, we review the VCF protocol, recent results, and discuss potential future developments, including potential use of these experimental findings to create novel computational models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recognition of LPS by TLR4: Potential for Anti-Inflammatory Therapies

PubMed Central

Nijland, Reindert; Hofland, Tom; van Strijp, Jos A. G.

2014-01-01

LPS molecules of marine bacteria show structures distinct from terrestrial bacteria, due to the different environment that marine bacteria live in. Because of these different structures, lipid A molecules from marine bacteria are most often poor stimulators of the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) pathway. Due to their low stimulatory potential, these lipid A molecules are suggested to be applicable as antagonists of TLR4 signaling in sepsis patients, where this immune response is amplified and unregulated. Antagonizing lipid A molecules might be used for future therapies against sepsis, therapies that currently do not exist. In this review, we will discuss these differences in lipid A structures and their recognition by the immune system. The modifications present in marine lipid A structures are described, and their potential as LPS antagonists will be discussed. Finally, since clinical trials built on antagonizing lipid A molecules have proven unsuccessful, we propose to also focus on different aspects of the TLR4 signaling pathway when searching for new potential drugs. Furthermore, we put forward the notion that bacteria probably already produce inhibitors of TLR4 signaling, making these bacterial products interesting molecules to investigate for future sepsis therapies. PMID:25056632

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea.

PubMed

Munday, Philip L; Warner, Robert R; Monro, Keyne; Pandolfi, John M; Marshall, Dustin J

2013-12-01

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

PubMed

Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

2018-03-01

Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phoretic Self-Propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Jeffrey L.; Posner, Jonathan D.

2017-01-01

It is well-known that micro- and nanoparticles can move by phoretic effects in response to externally imposed gradients of scalar quantities such as chemical concentration or electric potential. A class of active colloids can propel themselves through aqueous media by generating local gradients of concentration and electrical potential via surface reactions. Phoretic active colloids can be controlled using external stimuli and can mimic collective behaviors exhibited by many biological swimmers. Low-Reynolds number physicochemical hydrodynamics imposes unique challenges and constraints that must be understood for the practical potential of active colloids to be realized. Here, we review the rich physics underlying the operation of phoretic active colloids, describe their interactions and collective behaviors, and discuss promising directions for future research.

Reward Processing And Risk For Depression Across Development

PubMed Central

Luking, Katherine R; Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L; Barch, Deanna M

2016-01-01

Striatal response to reward has been of great interest in the typical development and psychopathology literatures. These parallel lines of inquiry demonstrate that while typically developing adolescents show robust striatal response to reward, adolescents with major depressive disorder (MDD) or those at high-risk for MDD show blunted response to reward. Understanding how these findings intersect is critical for the development and application of early preventative interventions in at-risk children, ideally before the sharp increase in the rate of MDD onset that occurs in adolescence. Robust findings relating blunted striatal response to reward and MDD-risk are reviewed and situated within a normative developmental context. We highlight the need for future studies investigating longitudinal development, specificity to MDD, and roles of potential moderators and mediators. PMID:27131776

Reaching the Surveillance-Response Stage of Schistosomiasis Control in The People's Republic of China: A Modelling Approach.

PubMed

Feng, Y; Liu, L; Xia, S; Xu, J-F; Bergquist, R; Yang, G-J

2016-01-01

With the goal set to eliminate schistosomiasis nationwide by 2020, The People's Republic of China has initiated the surveillance-response stage to identify remaining sources of infection and potential pockets from where the disease could reemerge. Shifting the focus from classical monitoring and evaluation to rapid detection and immediate response, this approach requires modelling to bridge the surveillance and response components. We review here studies relevant to schistosomiasis modelling in a Chinese surveillance-response system with the expectation to achieve a practically useful understanding of the current situation and potential future study directions. We also present useful experience that could tentatively be applied in other endemic regions in the world. Modelling is discussed at length as it plays an essential role, both with regard to the intermediate snail host and in the definitive, mammal hosts. Research gaps with respect to snail infection, animal hosts and sectoral research cooperation are identified and examined against the prevailing background of ecosystem and socioeconomic changes with a focus on coexisting challenges and opportunities in a situation with increasing financial constraints. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supraspinal Control Predicts Locomotor Function and Forecasts Responsiveness to Training after Spinal Cord Injury

PubMed Central

Field-Fote, Edelle C.; Yang, Jaynie F.; Basso, D. Michele; Gorassini, Monica A.

2017-01-01

Abstract Restoration of walking ability is an area of great interest in the rehabilitation of persons with spinal cord injury. Because many cortical, subcortical, and spinal neural centers contribute to locomotor function, it is important that intervention strategies be designed to target neural elements at all levels of the neuraxis that are important for walking ability. While to date most strategies have focused on activation of spinal circuits, more recent studies are investigating the value of engaging supraspinal circuits. Despite the apparent potential of pharmacological, biological, and genetic approaches, as yet none has proved more effective than physical therapeutic rehabilitation strategies. By making optimal use of the potential of the nervous system to respond to training, strategies can be developed that meet the unique needs of each person. To complement the development of optimal training interventions, it is valuable to have the ability to predict future walking function based on early clinical presentation, and to forecast responsiveness to training. A number of clinical prediction rules and association models based on common clinical measures have been developed with the intent, respectively, to predict future walking function based on early clinical presentation, and to delineate characteristics associated with responsiveness to training. Further, a number of variables that are correlated with walking function have been identified. Not surprisingly, most of these prediction rules, association models, and correlated variables incorporate measures of volitional lower extremity strength, illustrating the important influence of supraspinal centers in the production of walking behavior in humans. PMID:27673569

Pharmacotherapy of Scleritis: Current Paradigms and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Beardsley, Robert M.; Suhler, Eric B.; Rosenbaum, James T.; Lin, Phoebe

2013-01-01

Introduction Scleritis is an inflammatory condition affecting the eye wall that may be associated with a number of systemic inflammatory diseases. Because scleritis can be refractory to standard treatment, knowledge of the body of available and emerging therapies is paramount and is reviewed here. Areas Covered This review focuses on both traditional and emerging therapies for non-infectious scleritis. We will cover the mechanisms of action and potential adverse effects of each of the treatment modalities. Additionally, a summary of the significant MEDLINE indexed literature under the subject heading “scleritis,” “treatment,” “immunomodulator” will be provided on each therapy, including commentary on appropriate use and relative contraindications. Lastly, novel treatments and potential drug candidates that are currently being evaluated in clinical trials with therapeutic potential will also be reviewed. Expert Opinion While oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and oral corticosteroids are widely used, effective, first-line agents for inflammatory scleritis, refractory cases require anti-metabolites, T cell inhibitors, or biologic response modifiers. In particular, there is emerging evidence for the use of targeted biologic response modifiers, and potentially, for local drug delivery. PMID:23425055

Interaction Between Helminths and Toll-Like Receptors: Possibilities and Potentials for Asthma Therapy.

PubMed

Zakeri, Amin; Borji, Hassan; Haghparast, Alireza

2016-05-03

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are essential components of the innate immune system. They play an important role in the pathogenesis of allergic diseases, especially asthma. Since TLRs significantly orchestrate innate and adaptive immune response, their manipulation has widely been considered as a potential approach to control asthma symptoms. It is well established that helminths have immunoregulatory effects on host immune responses, especially innate immunity. They release bioactive molecules such as excretory-secretory (ES) products manipulating TLRs expression and signaling. Thus, given the promising results derived from preclinical studies, harnessing helminth-derived molecules affecting TLRs can be considered as a potential biological therapy for allergic diseases. Prospectively, the data that are available at present suggest that, in the near future, it is possible that helminth antigens will offer new therapeutic strategies and druggable targets for fighting allergic diseases. This review describes the interactions between helminths and TLRs and discusses the potential possibilities for asthma therapy. In this opinion paper, the authors aimed to review the updated literatures on the interplay between helminths, TLRs, and asthma with a view to proposing helminth-based asthma therapy.

Priming, not inhibition, of related concepts during future imagining.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen L; Benoit, Roland G; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-10-01

Remembering the past and imagining the future both involve the retrieval of details stored in episodic memory and rely on the same core network of brain regions. Given these parallels, one might expect similar component processes to be involved in remembering and imagining. While a strong case can be made for the role of inhibition in memory retrieval, few studies have examined whether inhibition is also necessary for future imagining and results to-date have been mixed. In the current study, we test whether related concepts are inhibited during future imagining using a modified priming approach. Participants first generated a list of familiar places and for each place, the people they most strongly associate with it. A week later, participants imagined future events involving recombinations of people and places, immediately followed by a speeded response task in which participants made familiarity decisions about people's names. Across two experiments, our results suggest that related concepts are not inhibited during future imagining, but rather are automatically primed. These results fit with recent work showing that autobiographically significant concepts (e.g., friends' names) are more episodic than semantic in nature, automatically activating related details in memory and potentially fuelling the flexible simulation of future events.

Visitor reponse to demonstration fees at National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, J.G.; Vaske, J.J.; Shelby, L.B.; Donnelly, M.P.; Browne, Cassandra M.

2002-01-01

In response to a request from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, we examined the likelihood of visitors changing their plans for future visits to National Wildlife Refuges (NWR) because of changes in entrance or use fees. We obtained data for this study from 3,173 respondents from 14 NWRs between 1998 and 2000. Overall, only 8% of all respondents reported potential displacement as a likely response to fee changes. Bivariate analyses indicated that displacement was related to the NWR visited, participation in consumptive or nonconsumptive activities, amount of fees paid, and respondents' income, but the strength of these relationships was weak. Beliefs about the fee program and attitude toward fees paid were better predictors of displacement potential. Multivariate log-linear analysis highlighted significant interactions among the variables and complexity of understanding the displacement process.

The Role of Epigenomics in Aquatic Toxicology.

PubMed

Brander, Susanne M; Biales, Adam D; Connon, Richard E

2017-10-01

Over the past decade, the field of molecular biology has rapidly incorporated epigenetic studies to evaluate organism-environment interactions that can result in chronic effects. Such responses arise from early life stage stress, the utilization of genetic information over an individual's life time, and transgenerational inheritance. Knowledge of epigenetic mechanisms provides the potential for a comprehensive evaluation of multigenerational and heritable effects from environmental stressors, such as contaminants. Focused studies have provided a greater understanding of how many responses to environmental stressors are driven by epigenetic modifiers. We discuss the promise of epigenetics and suggest future research directions within the field of aquatic toxicology, with a particular focus on the potential for identifying key heritable marks with consequential impacts at the organism and population levels. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2565-2573. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Short Paper: Frequency Regulation Services from Connected Residential Devices: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri; Jin, Xin; Vaidhynathan, Deepthi

In this paper, we demonstrate the potential benefits that residential buildings can provide for frequency regulation services in the electric power grid. In a hardware-in-the- loop (HIL) implementation, simulated homes along with a physical laboratory home are coordinated via a grid aggregator, and it is shown that their aggregate response has the potential to follow the regulation signal on a timescale of seconds. Connected (communication-enabled), devices in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) received demand response (DR) requests from a grid aggregator, and the devices responded accordingly to meet the signal while satisfying user comfortmore » bounds and physical hardware limitations. Future research will address the issues of cybersecurity threats, participation rates, and reducing equipment wear-and-tear while providing grid services.« less

Perspectives on advance care planning among patients recently requiring non-invasive ventilation for acute respiratory failure: A qualitative study using thematic analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Tracy A; Disler, Rebecca T; Jenkins, Christine R; Ingham, Jane M; Davidson, Patricia M

2017-06-01

Patients requiring non-invasive ventilation for acute-on-chronic respiratory failure due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or heart failure exacerbations may have a poor prognosis underscoring the importance of advance care planning. We aimed to describe attitudes to, and experiences of, discussing the future among patients recently treated with non-invasive ventilation. Qualitative research using thematic analysis. Tertiary teaching hospital. Patients with acute hypercapnic respiratory failure requiring non-invasive ventilation. Individuals recently treated with non-invasive ventilation describe feeling the future is beyond their control and instead controlled by their illness. Participants often recognised their poor prognosis but avoided discussing some difficult topics. The majority preferred not to undergo cardiopulmonary resuscitation but most had not discussed this with healthcare professionals. When participants voiced concerns about their future health to family members, they were met with polarised responses. Some encountered willingness for further discussion, while others met deflection, deterring further conversation. An overarching narrative of 'Looking through my illness to an uncertain but concerning future' unites these themes. This study suggests opportunities and barriers for advance care planning in individuals with chronic disease. Patients' understanding of their prognosis and their attitudes to cardiopulmonary resuscitation suggests an opportunity for advance care planning. Structuring discussions around patients' preferences for care during future exacerbations may foster a sense of control over the future despite illness. The diversity of familial responses to patients' concerns about their future health has implications for advance care planning. These findings have the potential to improve care for patients with respiratory failure and suggest an important ongoing research agenda.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

[Ecological memory and its potential applications in ecology: a review].

PubMed

Sun, Zhong-yu; Ren, Hai

2011-03-01

Ecological memory (EM) is defined as the capability of the past states or experiences of a community to influence the present or future ecological responses of the community. As a relatively new concept, EM has received considerable attention in the study of ecosystem structure and function, such as community succession, ecological restoration, biological invasion, and natural resource management. This review summarized the definition, components, and categories of EM, and discussed the possible mechanisms and affecting factors of EM. Also, the potential applications of EM were proposed, in order to further understand the mechanisms of community succession and to guide ecological restoration.

Epigenetic and chromatin-based mechanisms in environmental stress adaptation and stress memory in plants.

PubMed

Lämke, Jörn; Bäurle, Isabel

2017-06-27

Plants frequently have to weather both biotic and abiotic stressors, and have evolved sophisticated adaptation and defense mechanisms. In recent years, chromatin modifications, nucleosome positioning, and DNA methylation have been recognized as important components in these adaptations. Given their potential epigenetic nature, such modifications may provide a mechanistic basis for a stress memory, enabling plants to respond more efficiently to recurring stress or even to prepare their offspring for potential future assaults. In this review, we discuss both the involvement of chromatin in stress responses and the current evidence on somatic, intergenerational, and transgenerational stress memory.

Verona Coding Definitions of Emotional Sequences (VR-CoDES): Conceptual framework and future directions.

PubMed

Piccolo, Lidia Del; Finset, Arnstein; Mellblom, Anneli V; Figueiredo-Braga, Margarida; Korsvold, Live; Zhou, Yuefang; Zimmermann, Christa; Humphris, Gerald

2017-12-01

To discuss the theoretical and empirical framework of VR-CoDES and potential future direction in research based on the coding system. The paper is based on selective review of papers relevant to the construction and application of VR-CoDES. VR-CoDES system is rooted in patient-centered and biopsychosocial model of healthcare consultations and on a functional approach to emotion theory. According to the VR-CoDES, emotional interaction is studied in terms of sequences consisting of an eliciting event, an emotional expression by the patient and the immediate response by the clinician. The rationale for the emphasis on sequences, on detailed classification of cues and concerns, and on the choices of explicit vs. non-explicit responses and providing vs. reducing room for further disclosure, as basic categories of the clinician responses, is described. Results from research on VR-CoDES may help raise awareness of emotional sequences. Future directions in applying VR-CoDES in research may include studies on predicting patient and clinician behavior within the consultation, qualitative analyses of longer sequences including several VR-CoDES triads, and studies of effects of emotional communication on health outcomes. VR-CoDES may be applied to develop interventions to promote good handling of patients' emotions in healthcare encounters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Allocating a 2 °C cumulative carbon budget to countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gignac, Renaud; Damon Matthews, H.

2015-07-01

Recent estimates of the global carbon budget, or allowable cumulative CO2 emissions consistent with a given level of climate warming, have the potential to inform climate mitigation policy discussions aimed at maintaining global temperatures below 2 °C. This raises difficult questions, however, about how best to share this carbon budget amongst nations in a way that both respects the need for a finite cap on total allowable emissions, and also addresses the fundamental disparities amongst nations with respect to their historical and potential future emissions. Here we show how the contraction and convergence (C&C) framework can be applied to the division of a global carbon budget among nations, in a manner that both maintains total emissions below a level consistent with 2 °C, and also adheres to the principle of attaining equal per capita CO2 emissions within the coming decades. We show further that historical differences in responsibility for climate warming can be quantified via a cumulative carbon debt (or credit), which represents the amount by which a given country’s historical emissions have exceeded (or fallen short of) the emissions that would have been consistent with their share of world population over time. This carbon debt/credit calculation enhances the potential utility of C&C, therefore providing a simple method to frame national climate mitigation targets in a way that both accounts for historical responsibility, and also respects the principle of international equity in determining future emissions allowances.

Genetic Linkage of Soil Carbon Pools and Microbial Functions in Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands in Response to Experimental Warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Hang; He, Zhili; Lu, Zhenmei; Zhou, Jizhong; Van Nostrand, Joy D.; Xu, Xinhua

2012-01-01

Rising climate temperatures in the future are predicted to accelerate the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. A field microcosm experiment was carried out to examine the impact of soil warming in freshwater wetlands on different organic carbon (C) pools and associated microbial functional responses. GeoChip 4.0, a functional gene microarray, was used to determine microbial gene diversity and functional potential for C degradation. Experimental warming significantly increased soil pore water dissolved organic C and phosphorus (P) concentrations, leading to a higher potential for C emission and P export. Such losses of total organic C stored in soil could be traced back to the decomposition of recalcitrant organic C. Warming preferentially stimulated genes for degrading recalcitrant C over labile C. This was especially true for genes encoding cellobiase and mnp for cellulose and lignin degradation, respectively. We confirmed this with warming-enhanced polyphenol oxidase and peroxidase activities for recalcitrant C acquisition and greater increases in recalcitrant C use efficiency than in labile C use efficiency (average percentage increases of 48% versus 28%, respectively). The relative abundance of lignin-degrading genes increased by 15% under warming; meanwhile, soil fungi, as the primary decomposers of lignin, were greater in abundance by 27%. This work suggests that future warming may enhance the potential for accelerated fungal decomposition of lignin-like compounds, leading to greater microbially mediated C losses than previously estimated in freshwater wetlands. PMID:22923398

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Optic variables used to judge future ball arrival position in expert and novice soccer players.

PubMed

Craig, Cathy M; Goulon, Cédric; Berton, Eric; Rao, Guillaume; Fernandez, Laure; Bootsma, Reinoud J

2009-04-01

Although many studies have looked at the perceptual-cognitive strategies used to make anticipatory judgments in sport, few have examined the informational invariants that our visual system may be attuned to. Using immersive interactive virtual reality to simulate the aerodynamics of the trajectory of a ball with and without sidespin, the present study examined the ability of expert and novice soccer players to make judgments about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of their judgment responses showed how participants were strongly influenced by the ball's trajectory. The changes in trajectory caused by sidespin led to erroneous predictions about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of potential informational variables that could explain these results points to the use of a first-order compound variable combining optical expansion and optical displacement.

Possible selves in marital roles: the impact of the anticipated division of labor on the mate preferences of women and men.

PubMed

Eagly, Alice H; Eastwick, Paul W; Johannesen-Schmidt, Mary

2009-04-01

In two experiments, female and male participants envisioned themselves as a married person with children who is either a homemaker or a provider. Participants who envisioned themselves as a future homemaker regarded a potential mate's provider qualities as more important and homemaker qualities as less important, compared with participants who envisioned themselves as a future provider. Envisioning oneself as a homemaker also shifted preferences toward an older spouse, compared with envisioning oneself as a provider. In the control conditions of the experiments, in which participants freely envisioned their own future marriage, the less provider responsibility anticipated for the wife, the more traditional were mate preferences. These experiments support the social role theory view that the roles anticipated by men and women influence their choice of mates.

Increasing the realism of projected tree species ranges by incorporating migration potential: an eastern US case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Jantz, P.; Goetz, S. J.

2015-12-01

Models of vegetation distributions are used for a wide variety of purposes, from global assessments of biome shifts and biogeochemical feedbacks to local management planning. Dynamic vegetation models, mostly mechanistic in origin, are valuable for regional to global studies but remain limited for more local-scale applications, especially those that require species-specific responses to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used for such applications, but these too have several outstanding limitations, one of the most prominent being a lack of dispersal and migration. Several hybrid models have recently been developed, but these generally require detailed parameterization of species-level attributes that may not be known. Here we present an approach to couple migration potential with SDM output for a large number of species in order to more realistically project future range shifts. We focus on 40 tree species in the eastern US of potential management concern, either because of their canopy dominance, ecosystem functions, or potential for utilizing future climates. Future climates were taken from a CMIP5 model ensemble average using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We used Random Forests to characterize current and future environmental suitability, and modeled migration as a negative exponential kernel that is affected by forest fragmentation and the density of current seed sources. We present results in a vulnerability framework relevant for a number of ongoing management activities in the region. We find an overarching pattern of northward and eastward range shifts, with high-elevation and northern species being the most adversely impacted. Because of limitations to migration, many newly suitable areas could not be utilized without active intervention. Only a few areas exhibited consistently favorable conditions that could be utilized by the relevant species, including the central Appalachian foothills and the Florida panhandle. We suggest that a continued effort to include migration potential into vegetation models can lead to more realistic results and management-relevant products.

Altered Reward Function in Adolescent Depression: What, When, and How?

PubMed Central

Forbes, Erika E.; Dahl, Ronald E.

2011-01-01

Background Conceptual models and recent evidence indicate that neural response to reward is altered in depression. Taking a developmental approach to investigating reward function in adolescent depression can elucidate the etiology, pathophysiology, and course of depression, a disorder that typically begins during adolescence and has high rates of recurrence. Methods This conceptual review describes the what, when, and how of altered reward function in adolescent depression. With the goal of generating new, testable hypotheses within a developmental affective neuroscience framework, we critically review findings and suggest future directions. Peer-reviewed empirical papers for inclusion in this critical review were obtained by searching PubMed, PsycInfo, and ScienceDirect for the years 1990–2010. Results A pattern of low striatal response and high medial prefrontal response to reward is evident in adolescents and adults with depression. Given the salience of social stimuli for positive affect and depression, reward function might be especially disrupted in response to social rewards. Because of changes in the dopamine system and reward function with aging, altered reward function in depression might be more evident during adolescence than later in life; however, low reward function may also be a stable characteristic of people who experience depression. Mechanisms of altered reward function in depression could include disrupted balance of corticostriatal circuit function, with disruption occurring as aberrant adolescent brain development. Conclusions Future studies should examine responses to social rewards; employ longitudinal and prospective designs; and investigate patterns of functional connectivity in reward circuits. Understanding altered reward function in depression has potential implications for treatment development. A more rigorous approach to investigating anhedonia, threat-reward interactions, and comorbid anxiety will be valuable to future progress in describing the role of reward function in the pathophysiology of depression. PMID:22117893

Stimuli-Responsive Polymeric Systems for Controlled Protein and Peptide Delivery: Future Implications for Ocular Delivery.

PubMed

Mahlumba, Pakama; Choonara, Yahya E; Kumar, Pradeep; du Toit, Lisa C; Pillay, Viness

2016-07-30

Therapeutic proteins and peptides have become notable in the drug delivery arena for their compatibility with the human body as well as their high potency. However, their biocompatibility and high potency does not negate the existence of challenges resulting from physicochemical properties of proteins and peptides, including large size, short half-life, capability to provoke immune responses and susceptibility to degradation. Various delivery routes and delivery systems have been utilized to improve bioavailability, patient acceptability and reduce biodegradation. The ocular route remains of great interest, particularly for responsive delivery of macromolecules due to the anatomy and physiology of the eye that makes it a sensitive and complex environment. Research in this field is slowly gaining attention as this could be the breakthrough in ocular drug delivery of macromolecules. This work reviews stimuli-responsive polymeric delivery systems, their use in the delivery of therapeutic proteins and peptides as well as examples of proteins and peptides used in the treatment of ocular disorders. Stimuli reviewed include pH, temperature, enzymes, light, ultrasound and magnetic field. In addition, it discusses the current progress in responsive ocular drug delivery. Furthermore, it explores future prospects in the use of stimuli-responsive polymers for ocular delivery of proteins and peptides. Stimuli-responsive polymers offer great potential in improving the delivery of ocular therapeutics, therefore there is a need to consider them in order to guarantee a local, sustained and ideal delivery of ocular proteins and peptides, evading tissue invasion and systemic side-effects.

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

PubMed Central

Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

2013-01-01

Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

Streamflow responses to past and projected future changes in climate at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Katharine Hayhoe

2011-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter streamflow regimes, having ecological, economic, and societal implications. In the northeastern United States, it is unclear how climate change may affect surface water supply, which is of critical importance in this densely populated region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the timing...

The Future of Responder Family Preparedness: The New Normal

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

includes “emergency management, public health, clinical care , public works, and other skilled support personnel (such as equipment operators) that...injured family members who are in need of the care of the trooper are given first priority during these times, and management often advises the trooper...response to a potential biological incident in the National Capital Region (NCR) and found that family preparedness would be a determining factor in

Army Leader Development Strategy: Developing Brigade Level Leaders through Balance, Emphasis, and Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-13

accompanying assumption is that over a decade of 5 combat operations has created gaps in leader development visible at all levels of leadership. The third...future potential will steer leaders toward positions based on their aptitude rather than their previous experience and performance. This would...provides no metrics for determining how well leader development is understood from a pedagogical perspective. Lastly, responses indicate that a

Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

2016-12-01

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

Genetic control of disease resistance and immunoresponsiveness.

PubMed

Kelm, S C; Freeman, A E; Kehrli, M E

2001-11-01

A great deal of evidence points to substantial genetic control over at least some of the immune responses, although genetic parameters for clinical disease have been less favorable. The past two decades have illustrated that single genes with a large impact on food animal health do exist and can be used to improve the health of domestic populations. The current focus on molecular genetics within food animal species will likely unveil numerous other examples of single genes with large effects, although the use of animals possessing favorable genotypes for disease resistance may represent a compromise in selection for increased production of raw product. Moreover, it is also clear that genetic control over the immune system is not limited to a few genes but is more likely influenced by many genes, each with small effects. The use of this information in animal improvement programs is not straightforward because of factors complicating the identification of superior individuals within the population. The scarcity of information dealing with phenotypic and genetic relationships between measures of disease resistance and aspects of immune response complicates the situation even further. Despite these potential hurdles, the potential for permanent improvement of disease resistance within food animal species in the future is tantalizing and merits intensified future study.

Integrating Solar into Florida's Power System: Potential Roles for Flexibility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hale, Elaine T; Stoll, Brady; Novacheck, Joshua E

Although Florida has very little photovoltaic (PV) generation to date, it is reasonable to expect significant deployment in the 2020s under a variety of future policy and cost scenarios. To understand these potential futures, we model Florida Reliability Coordinating Council operations in 2026 over a wide range of PV penetrations with various combinations of battery storage capacity, demand response, and increased operational flexibility. By calculating the value of PV under a wide range of conditions, we find that at least 5%, and more likely 10-24%, PV penetration is cost competitive in Florida within the next decade with baseline flexibility andmore » all but the most pessimistic of assumptions. For high PV penetrations, we demonstrate Florida's electrical net-load variability (duck curve) challenges, the associated reduction of PV's value to the system, and the ability of flexibility options-in particular energy-shifting resources-to preserve value and increase the economic carrying capacity of PV. A high level of demand response boosts the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 0.5-2 percentage points, which is comparable to the impact of deploying 1 GW of battery storage. Adding 4 GW of battery storage expands the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 6 percentage points.« less

Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Moore, John; Yan, Qing; Song, Yi; Yang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Wenping; Chou, Jieming; Cui, Xuefeng; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Yang, Shili; Tian, Di; Lin, Pengfei; Yang, Song; Wen, Zhiping; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Feng, Guolin; Jiang, Yundi; Zhu, Xian; Chen, Juan; Wei, Xin; Shi, Wen; Zhang, Zhiguo; Dong, Juan; Li, Yexin; Chen, Deliang

2016-06-22

Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.

Intermittent hypoxia, respiratory plasticity and sleep apnea in humans: present knowledge and future investigations.

PubMed

Mateika, Jason H; Syed, Ziauddin

2013-09-15

This review examines the role that respiratory plasticity has in the maintenance of breathing stability during sleep in individuals with sleep apnea. The initial portion of the review considers the manner in which repetitive breathing events may be initiated in individuals with sleep apnea. Thereafter, the role that two forms of respiratory plasticity, progressive augmentation of the hypoxic ventilatory response and long-term facilitation of upper airway and respiratory muscle activity, might have in modifying breathing events in humans is examined. In this context, present knowledge regarding the initiation of respiratory plasticity in humans during wakefulness and sleep is addressed. Also, published findings which reveal that exposure to intermittent hypoxia promotes breathing instability, at least in part, because of progressive augmentation of the hypoxic ventilatory response and the absence of long-term facilitation, are considered. Next, future directions are presented and are focused on the manner in which forms of plasticity that stabilize breathing might be promoted while diminishing destabilizing forms, concurrently. These future directions will consider the potential role of circadian rhythms in the promotion of respiratory plasticity and the role of respiratory plasticity in enhancing established treatments for sleep apnea. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Review of recent transgenic studies on abiotic stress tolerance and future molecular breeding in potato.

PubMed

Kikuchi, Akira; Huynh, Huu Duc; Endo, Tsukasa; Watanabe, Kazuo

2015-03-01

Global warming has become a major issue within the last decade. Traditional breeding programs for potato have focused on increasing productivity and quality and disease resistance, thus, modern cultivars have limited tolerance of abiotic stresses. The introgression of abiotic stress tolerance into modern cultivars is essential work for the future. Recently, many studies have investigated abiotic stress using transgenic techniques. This manuscript focuses on the study of abiotic stress, in particular drought, salinity and low temperature, during this century. Dividing studies into these three stress categories for this review was difficult. Thus, based on the study title and the transgene property, transgenic studies were classified into five categories in this review; oxidative scavengers, transcriptional factors, and above three abiotic categories. The review focuses on studies that investigate confer of stress tolerance and the identification of responsible factors, including wild relatives. From a practical application perspective, further evaluation of transgenic potato with abiotic stress tolerance is required. Although potato plants, including wild species, have a large potential for abiotic stress tolerance, exploration of the factors responsible for conferring this tolerance is still developing. Molecular breeding, including genetic engineering and conventional breeding using DNA markers, is expected to develop in the future.

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K.

2010-01-01

The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades. PMID:20713389

Citizen seismology in Taiwan: what went wrong and what is the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K. H.; Liang, W. T.; Wu, Y. F.

2017-12-01

Citizen seismology encourages the public involvement to data collection, analysis, and reporting, and has the potential to greatly improve the emergency response to seismic hazard. This of course, is important for scientific achievement due to the dense network. We believed the value of citizen seismology and started with distributing Quake-Catcher-Network (QCN) sensor at schools in Taiwan. While working with teachers, we hoped to motivate the learning of how to read seismograms, what to see in the data, and what to teach in the class. Through lots of workshops and activities, even with near-real time earthquake game competition and board game (quake-nopoly) developed along the way, we came to realize the huge gap between what people need and what we do. And to bridge the gap, a new generation of citizen seismic network is needed. Imagine at work, you receive the alarm from sensors at home that tells you the location, size, and type of anomalous shaking events in the neighborhood. Can this future "warning" system happen, allowing citizen to do emergence response? This is a story about facing the challenge, transforming the doubt of "why do I care" to a future IoT world.

In Vitro Evaluation of Fluorescence Glucose Biosensor Response

PubMed Central

Aloraefy, Mamdouh; Pfefer, T. Joshua; Ramella-Roman, Jessica C.; Sapsford, Kim E.

2014-01-01

Rapid, accurate, and minimally-invasive glucose biosensors based on Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) for glucose measurement have the potential to enhance diabetes control. However, a standard set of in vitro approaches for evaluating optical glucose biosensor response under controlled conditions would facilitate technological innovation and clinical translation. Towards this end, we have identified key characteristics and response test methods, fabricated FRET-based glucose biosensors, and characterized biosensor performance using these test methods. The biosensors were based on competitive binding between dextran and glucose to concanavalin A and incorporated long-wavelength fluorescence dye pairs. Testing characteristics included spectral response, linearity, sensitivity, limit of detection, kinetic response, reversibility, stability, precision, and accuracy. The biosensor demonstrated a fluorescence change of 45% in the presence of 400 mg/dL glucose, a mean absolute relative difference of less than 11%, a limit of detection of 25 mg/dL, a response time of 15 min, and a decay in fluorescence intensity of 72% over 30 days. The battery of tests presented here for objective, quantitative in vitro evaluation of FRET glucose biosensors performance have the potential to form the basis of future consensus standards. By implementing these test methods for a long-visible-wavelength biosensor, we were able to demonstrate strengths and weaknesses with a new level of thoroughness and rigor. PMID:25006996

In vitro evaluation of fluorescence glucose biosensor response.

PubMed

Aloraefy, Mamdouh; Pfefer, T Joshua; Ramella-Roman, Jessica C; Sapsford, Kim E

2014-07-08

Rapid, accurate, and minimally-invasive glucose biosensors based on Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) for glucose measurement have the potential to enhance diabetes control. However, a standard set of in vitro approaches for evaluating optical glucose biosensor response under controlled conditions would facilitate technological innovation and clinical translation. Towards this end, we have identified key characteristics and response test methods, fabricated FRET-based glucose biosensors, and characterized biosensor performance using these test methods. The biosensors were based on competitive binding between dextran and glucose to concanavalin A and incorporated long-wavelength fluorescence dye pairs. Testing characteristics included spectral response, linearity, sensitivity, limit of detection, kinetic response, reversibility, stability, precision, and accuracy. The biosensor demonstrated a fluorescence change of 45% in the presence of 400 mg/dL glucose, a mean absolute relative difference of less than 11%, a limit of detection of 25 mg/dL, a response time of 15 min, and a decay in fluorescence intensity of 72% over 30 days. The battery of tests presented here for objective, quantitative in vitro evaluation of FRET glucose biosensors performance have the potential to form the basis of future consensus standards. By implementing these test methods for a long-visible-wavelength biosensor, we were able to demonstrate strengths and weaknesses with a new level of thoroughness and rigor.

Remotely Triggered Scaffolds for Controlled Release of Pharmaceuticals

PubMed Central

Roach, Paul; McGarvey, David J.; Lees, Martin R.; Hoskins, Clare

2013-01-01

Fe3O4-Au hybrid nanoparticles (HNPs) have shown increasing potential for biomedical applications such as image guided stimuli responsive drug delivery. Incorporation of the unique properties of HNPs into thermally responsive scaffolds holds great potential for future biomedical applications. Here we successfully fabricated smart scaffolds based on thermo-responsive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (pNiPAM). Nanoparticles providing localized trigger of heating when irradiated with a short laser burst were found to give rise to remote control of bulk polymer shrinkage. Gold-coated iron oxide nanoparticles were synthesized using wet chemical precipitation methods followed by electrochemical coating. After subsequent functionalization of particles with allyl methyl sulfide, mercaptodecane, cysteamine and poly(ethylene glycol) thiol to enhance stability, detailed biological safety was determined using live/dead staining and cell membrane integrity studies through lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) quantification. The PEG coated HNPs did not show significant cytotoxic effect or adverse cellular response on exposure to 7F2 cells (p < 0.05) and were carried forward for scaffold incorporation. The pNiPAM-HNP composite scaffolds were investigated for their potential as thermally triggered systems using a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser. These studies show that incorporation of HNPs resulted in scaffold deformation after very short irradiation times (seconds) due to internal structural heating. Our data highlights the potential of these hybrid-scaffold constructs for exploitation in drug delivery, using methylene blue as a model drug being released during remote structural change of the scaffold. PMID:23603890

Revisiting the universal scaling hypothesis: do all plants respond similarly to aridification?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caddy-Retalic, S.; McInerney, F. A.; Lowe, A. J.; Prentice, I. C.; Wardle, G. M.

2016-12-01

Our limited understanding of how plants respond to aridification is a major barrier to predicting the future composition and distribution of global flora. Measurement of stable carbon isotope ratios in leaves is an established methodology for detecting water stress. Measuring carbon isotope ratios on aridity gradients has the potential to be used to determine the relative sensitivity of many co-occurring species. By comparing the slopes of the relationship between isotope ratios and mean annual precipitation (MAP) between species and to a common slope for all plants in a region, we can test for consistency in aridity sensitivity between different species, growth forms, local environment and continents. We present data from 1329 individual plants of 204 C3 species collected on two bioclimatic gradients: one in China (145-710mm MAP) and one in South Australia (160-980mm MAP). In examining differences between plants of different types and origins, we test the universal scaling hypothesis postulated by Prentice et al. (2010), which suggests that C3 plants have similar patterns of stomatal adjustment, irrespective of phylogeny and traits, including life form. If universal scaling were supported, plant attributes could be disregarded for the purposes of modeling community and regional ecophysiology. We find that less than a third of tested species conform to the universal scaling model, and postulate a new model of four response modes: regional scaling, biotic homeostasis, insensitive response and contrary response. We discuss potential mechanisms for each response mode and their ecological ramifications. Finally, we consider the broader utility for these data, including environmental monitoring and combining isotope data with species distributions to improve predictive vegetation mapping under future climate change scenarios.

Can We Power Future Mars Missions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Sturm, Erick J., II; Woolley, Ryan C.; Jordan, James F.

2006-01-01

The Vision for Space Exploration identified the exploration of Mars as one of the key pathways. In response, NASAs Mars Program Office is developing a detailed mission lineup for the next decade that would lead to future explorations. Mission architectures for the next decade include both orbiters and landers. Existing power technologies, which could include solar panels, batteries, radioisotope power systems, and in the future fission power, could support these missions. Second and third decade explorations could target human precursor and human in-situ missions, building on increasingly complex architectures. Some of these could use potential feed forward from earlier Constellation missions to the Moon, discussed in the ESAS study. From a potential Mars Sample Return mission to human missions the complexity of the architectures increases, and with it the delivered mass and power requirements also amplify. The delivered mass at Mars mostly depends on the launch vehicle, while the landed mass might be further limited by EDL technologies, including the aeroshell, parachutes, landing platform, and pinpoint landing. The resulting in-situ mass could be further divided into payload elements and suitable supporting power systems. These power systems can range from tens of watts to multi-kilowatts, influenced by mission type, mission configuration, landing location, mission duration, and season. Regardless, the power system design should match the power needs of these surface assets within a given architecture. Consequently, in this paper we will identify potential needs and bounds of delivered mass and architecture dependent power requirements to surface assets that would enable future in-situ exploration of Mars.

Key anticipated regulatory issues for clinical use of human induced pluripotent stem cells.

PubMed

Knoepfler, Paul S

2012-09-01

The production of human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) has greatly expanded the realm of possible stem cell-based regenerative medicine therapies and has particularly exciting potential for autologous therapies. However, future therapies based on hiPSCs will first have to address not only similar regulatory issues as those facing human embryonic stem cells with the US FDA and international regulatory agencies, but also hiPSCs have raised unique concerns as well. While the first possible clinical use of hiPSCs remains down the road, as a field it would be wise for us to anticipate potential roadblocks and begin formulating solutions. In this article, I discuss the potential regulatory issues facing hiPSCs and propose some potential changes in the direction of the field in response.

A two-dose heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimen eliciting sustained immune responses to Ebola Zaire could support a preventive strategy for future outbreaks

PubMed Central

Shukarev, Georgi; Callendret, Benoit; Luhn, Kerstin; Douoguih, Macaya

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The consequences of the 2013–16 Ebola Zaire virus disease epidemic in West Africa were grave. The economies, healthcare systems and communities of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia were devastated by over 18 months of active Ebola virus transmission, followed by sporadic resurgences potentially related to sexual transmission by survivors with viral persistence in body fluids following recovery. The need to develop and implement strategies to prevent and mitigate future outbreaks is now beyond dispute. The potential for unpredictable outbreaks of indeterminate duration, and control challenges posed by the possibility of sporadic re-emergence, mean that implementation of an effective vaccination program for outbreak containment necessitates a vaccine providing durable immunity. Heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimens deliver the same or similar antigens through different vaccine types, the first to prime and the second to boost the immune system. Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo is an investigational Ebola Zaire vaccine regimen that uses this heterologous prime-boost approach. Preliminary Phase 1 data suggest that Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo confers durable immunity for at least 240 d and is well-tolerated with a good safety profile. This regimen may therefore be suitable for prophylactic use in a regional or targeted population vaccination strategy, and could potentially aid prevention and control of future Ebola outbreaks. PMID:27925844

A two-dose heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimen eliciting sustained immune responses to Ebola Zaire could support a preventive strategy for future outbreaks.

PubMed

Shukarev, Georgi; Callendret, Benoit; Luhn, Kerstin; Douoguih, Macaya

2017-02-01

The consequences of the 2013-16 Ebola Zaire virus disease epidemic in West Africa were grave. The economies, healthcare systems and communities of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia were devastated by over 18 months of active Ebola virus transmission, followed by sporadic resurgences potentially related to sexual transmission by survivors with viral persistence in body fluids following recovery. The need to develop and implement strategies to prevent and mitigate future outbreaks is now beyond dispute. The potential for unpredictable outbreaks of indeterminate duration, and control challenges posed by the possibility of sporadic re-emergence, mean that implementation of an effective vaccination program for outbreak containment necessitates a vaccine providing durable immunity. Heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimens deliver the same or similar antigens through different vaccine types, the first to prime and the second to boost the immune system. Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo is an investigational Ebola Zaire vaccine regimen that uses this heterologous prime-boost approach. Preliminary Phase 1 data suggest that Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo confers durable immunity for at least 240 d and is well-tolerated with a good safety profile. This regimen may therefore be suitable for prophylactic use in a regional or targeted population vaccination strategy, and could potentially aid prevention and control of future Ebola outbreaks.

Planetary Protection Technologies: Technical Challenges for Mars Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buxbaum, Karen L.

2005-01-01

The search for life in the solar system, using either in situ analysis or sample return, brings with it special technical challenges in the area of planetary protection. Planetary protection (PP) requires planetary explorers to preserve biological and organic conditions for future exploration and to protect the Earth from potential extraterrestrial contamination that could occur as a result of sample return to the Earth-Moon system. In view of the exploration plans before us, the NASA Solar System Exploration Program Roadmap published in May 2003 identified planetary protection as one of 13 technologies for "high priority technology investments." Recent discoveries at Mars and Jupiter, coupled with new policies, have made this planning for planetary protection technology particularly challenging and relevant.New missions to Mars have been formulated, which present significantly greater forward contamination potential. New policies, including the introduction by COSPAR of a Category IVc for planetary protection, have been adopted by COSPAR in response. Some missions may not be feasible without the introduction of new planetary protection technologies. Other missions may be technically possible but planetary protection requirements may be so costly to implement with current technology that they are not affordable. A strategic investment strategy will be needed to focus on technology investments designed to enable future missions and reduce the costs of future missions. This presentation will describe some of the potential technological pathways that may be most protective.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Projected near-future CO2 levels increase activity and alter defensive behaviours in the tropical squid Idiosepius pygmaeus

PubMed Central

Spady, Blake L.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Chase, Tory J.; Munday, Philip L.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels projected to occur in the oceans by the end of this century cause a range of behavioural effects in fish, but whether other highly active marine organisms, such as cephalopods, are similarly affected is unknown. We tested the effects of projected future CO2 levels (626 and 956 µatm) on the behaviour of male two-toned pygmy squid, Idiosepius pygmaeus. Exposure to elevated CO2 increased the number of active individuals by 19–25% and increased movement (number of line-crosses) by nearly 3 times compared to squid at present-day CO2. Squid vigilance and defensive behaviours were also altered by elevated CO2 with >80% of individuals choosing jet escape responses over defensive arm postures in response to a visual startle stimulus, compared with 50% choosing jet escape responses at control CO2. In addition, more escape responses were chosen over threat behaviours in body pattern displays at elevated CO2 and individuals were more than twice as likely to use ink as a defence strategy at 956 µatm CO2, compared with controls. Increased activity could lead to adverse effects on energy budgets as well as increasing visibility to predators. A tendency to respond to a stimulus with escape behaviours could increase survival, but may also be energetically costly and could potentially lead to more chases by predators compared with individuals that use defensive postures. These results demonstrate that projected future ocean acidification affects the behaviours of a tropical squid species. PMID:25326517

Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

PubMed

Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

2010-03-01

Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

Depressive self-presentation: beyond self-handicapping.

PubMed

Weary, G; Williams, J P

1990-05-01

An experiment was conducted to examine the notion that depressives' responses would reflect a protective self-presentation style (Hill, Weary, & Williams, 1986), the underlying goal of which would be the avoidance of future performance demands and potential losses in self-esteem. In this study, depressed and nondepressed Ss were asked to perform a relatively simple visual-motor task. Half of the depressed and half of the nondepressed Ss were told that if they were successful at the task, they would be asked to perform a 2nd, similar task. The remaining Ss were given no such expectation of future performance. We predicted and found that depressed compared with nondepressed Ss strategically failed at the task when presented with the possibility of future performance and further losses in esteem. Moreover, this strategic failure was associated with some costs; depressed-future performance expectancy Ss experienced more discomfort or negative affect as a result of their performance. The relationship between this depressive self-presentation and self-handicapping strategies is discussed.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

PubMed Central

Finlay, Andrea; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer L.

2014-01-01

Adolescent future values – beliefs about what will matter to them in the future – may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic privilege) predicted adult social roles, civic behaviors, and alcohol use. Future values positively predicted behaviors within the same domain; fewer cross-domain associations were evident. Civic responsibility positively predicted adult civic behaviors, but negatively predicted having children. Hedonistic privilege positively predicted adult alcohol use and negatively predicted civic behaviors. Results suggest that attention should be paid to how adolescents are thinking about their futures due to the associated links with long-term social and health behaviors. PMID:26279595

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bistrian, Bruce

2009-01-01

The Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP) reviewed and discussed the specific gaps and tasks for the Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element related to nutrition identified in the Human Research Program (HRP) Integrated Research Plan. There was general consensus that the described gaps and proposed tasks were critical to future NASA mission success. The SRP acknowledged the high scientific quality of the work currently being undertaken by the Nutritional Biochemistry group under the direction of Dr. Scott Smith. In review of the entire HRP, four new gaps were identified that complement the Element's existing research activities. Given the limitations of ground-based analogs for many of the unique physiological and metabolic alterations in space, future studies are needed to quantify nutritional factors that change during actual space flight. In addition, future tasks should seek to better evaluate the time course of physiological and metabolic alterations during flight to better predict alterations during longer duration missions. Finally, given the recent data suggesting a potential role for increased inflammatory responses during space flight, the role of inflammation needs to be explored in detail, including the development of potential countermeasures and new ground based analogs, if this possibility is confirmed.

Ten questions concerning future buildings beyond zero energy and carbon neutrality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Na; Phelan, Patrick E.; Gonzalez, Jorge

2017-07-01

Architects, planners, and building scientists have been at the forefront of envisioning a future built environment for centuries. However, fragmental views that emphasize one facet of the built environment, such as energy, environment, or groundbreaking technologies, often do not achieve expected outcomes. Buildings are responsible for approximately one-third of worldwide carbon emissions and account for over 40% of primary energy consumption in the U.S. In addition to achieving the ambitious goal of reducing building greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2050, buildings must improve their functionality and performance to meet current and future human, societal, and environmental needs in amore » changing world. In this article, we introduce a new framework to guide potential evolution of the building stock in the next century, based on greenhouse gas emissions as the common thread to investigate the potential implications of new design paradigms, innovative operational strategies, and disruptive technologies. This framework emphasizes integration of multidisciplinary knowledge, scalability for mainstream buildings, and proactive approaches considering constraints and unknowns. The framework integrates the interrelated aspects of the built environment through a series of quantitative metrics that aim to improve environmental outcomes while optimizing building performance to achieve healthy, adaptive, and productive buildings.« less

Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

PubMed

Gorton, Dan

2014-09-01

The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

TP53 status and response to chemotherapy in breast cancer.

PubMed

Bertheau, Philippe; Espié, Marc; Turpin, Elisabeth; Lehmann, Jacqueline; Plassa, Louis-François; Varna, Mariana; Janin, Anne; de Thé, Hugues

2008-01-01

Despite its central role in the control of apoptosis, senescence and cell cycle arrest, the tumor suppressor protein p53 remains an enigma for its possible role in predicting response to chemotherapy in cancer patients. Many studies remained inconclusive, others showed a better response for tumors with normal p53, and some recent studies showed adverse effects of normal p53 for response to treatment. p53 is not only a powerful pro-apoptotic factor in response to drug-induced DNA damages but also a potential inducer of cell cycle arrest, protecting tumor cells from further cytotoxic damages. Our review describes the classical as well as the more recent concepts. In order to draw definite conclusions, future works should use more reliable methods to assess the TP53 status and should address more homogeneous tumor subpopulations treated with homogeneous chemotherapy regimens. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

PubMed

Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

2015-01-21

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Smart micro/nanoparticles in stimulus-responsive drug/gene delivery systems

PubMed Central

Karimi, Mahdi; Ghasemi, Amir; Zangabad, Parham Sahandi; Rahighi, Reza; Moosavi Basri, S. Masoud; Mirshekari, H.; Amiri, M.; Pishabad, Z. Shafaei; Aslani, A.; Bozorgomid, M.; Ghosh, D.; Beyzavi, A.; Vaseghi, A.; Aref, A. R.; Haghani, L.; Bahrami, S.; Hamblin, Michael R.

2016-01-01

New achievements in the realm of nanoscience and innovative techniques of nanomedicine have moved micro/nanoparticles (MNPs) to the point of becoming actually useful for practical applications in the near future. Various differences between the extracellular and intracellular environments of cancerous and normal cells and the particular characteristics of tumors such as physicochemical properties, neovasculature, elasticity, surface electrical charge, and pH have motivated the design and fabrication of inventive “smart” MNPs for stimulus-responsive controlled drug release. These novel MNPs can be tailored to be responsive to pH variations, redox potential, enzymatic activation, thermal gradients, magnetic fields, light, and ultrasound (US), or can even be responsive to dual or multi-combinations of different stimuli. This unparalleled capability has increased their importance as site-specific controlled drug delivery systems (DDSs) and has encouraged their rapid development in recent years. An in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms of these DDS approaches is expected to further contribute to this groundbreaking field of nanomedicine. Smart nanocarriers in the form of MNPs that can be triggered by internal or external stimulus are summarized and discussed in the present review, including pH-sensitive peptides and polymers, redox-responsive micelles and nanogels, thermo- or magnetic-responsive nanoparticles (NPs), mechanical- or electrical-responsive MNPs, light or ultrasound-sensitive particles, and multi-responsive MNPs including dual stimuli-sensitive nanosheets of graphene. This review highlights the recent advances of smart MNPs categorized according to their activation stimulus (physical, chemical, or biological) and looks forward to future pharmaceutical applications. PMID:26776487

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

Sea urchins in a high-CO2 world: the influence of acclimation on the immune response to ocean warming and acidification

PubMed Central

Harianto, J.; McClintock, J. B.; Byrne, M.

2016-01-01

Climate-induced ocean warming and acidification may render marine organisms more vulnerable to infectious diseases. We investigated the effects of warming and acidification on the immune response of the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. Sea urchins were gradually introduced to four combinations of temperature and pHNIST (17°C/pH 8.15, 17°C/pH 7.6, 23°C/pH 8.15 and 23°C/pH 7.6) and then held in temperature–pH treatments for 1, 15 or 30 days to determine if the immune response would adjust to stressors over time. Coelomocyte concentration and type, phagocytic capacity and bactericidal activity were measured on day 1, 15 and 30 with different sea urchins used each time. At each time point, the coelomic fluid of individuals exposed to increased temperature and acidification had the lowest coelomocyte concentrations, exhibited lower phagocytic capacities and was least effective at inhibiting bacterial growth of the pathogen Vibrio anguillarum. Over time, increased temperature alleviated the negative effects of acidification on phagocytic activity. Our results demonstrate the importance of incorporating acclimation time to multiple stressors when assessing potential responses to future ocean conditions and indicate that the immune response of H. erythrogramma may be compromised under near-future ocean warming and acidification. PMID:27559066

Sea urchins in a high-CO2 world: the influence of acclimation on the immune response to ocean warming and acidification.

PubMed

Brothers, C J; Harianto, J; McClintock, J B; Byrne, M

2016-08-31

Climate-induced ocean warming and acidification may render marine organisms more vulnerable to infectious diseases. We investigated the effects of warming and acidification on the immune response of the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma Sea urchins were gradually introduced to four combinations of temperature and pHNIST (17°C/pH 8.15, 17°C/pH 7.6, 23°C/pH 8.15 and 23°C/pH 7.6) and then held in temperature-pH treatments for 1, 15 or 30 days to determine if the immune response would adjust to stressors over time. Coelomocyte concentration and type, phagocytic capacity and bactericidal activity were measured on day 1, 15 and 30 with different sea urchins used each time. At each time point, the coelomic fluid of individuals exposed to increased temperature and acidification had the lowest coelomocyte concentrations, exhibited lower phagocytic capacities and was least effective at inhibiting bacterial growth of the pathogen Vibrio anguillarum Over time, increased temperature alleviated the negative effects of acidification on phagocytic activity. Our results demonstrate the importance of incorporating acclimation time to multiple stressors when assessing potential responses to future ocean conditions and indicate that the immune response of H. erythrogramma may be compromised under near-future ocean warming and acidification. © 2016 The Author(s).

Using Streamflow and Stream Temperature to Assess the Potential Responses of Freshwater Fish to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanCompernolle, M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

2017-12-01

Streamflow and stream temperature are key variables influencing growth, reproduction, and mortality of freshwater fish. Climate-induced changes in these variables are expected to alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Using Maxent, a species distribution model (SDM) based on the principal of maximum entropy, we predicted potential distributional responses of 100 fish species in the Mobile River Basin (MRB) to changes in climate based on contemporary and future streamflow and stream temperature estimates. Geologic, topographic, and landcover data were also included in each SDM to determine the contribution of these physical variables in defining areas of suitable habitat for each species. Using an ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections under a high emissions scenario, predicted distributions for each species across the MRB were produced for both a historical time period, 1975-1994, and a future time period, 2060-2079, and changes in total area and the percent change in historical suitable habitat for each species were calculated. Results indicate that flow (28%), temperature (29%), and geology (29%), on average, contribute evenly to determining areas of suitable habitat for fish species in the MRB, with landcover and slope playing more limited roles. Temperature contributed slightly more predictive ability to SDMs (31%) for the 77 species experiencing overall declines in areas of suitable habitat, but only 21% for the 23 species gaining habitat across all GCMs. Species are expected to lose between 15-24% of their historical suitable habitat, with threatened and endangered species losing 22-30% and those endemic to the MRB losing 19-28%. Sculpins (Cottidae) are expected to lose the largest amount of historical habitat (up to 84%), while pygmy sunfish (Elassomatidae) are expected to lose less than 1% of historical habitat. Understanding which species may be at risk of habitat loss under future projections of climate change can help fisheries managers better prepare for potential alterations in species composition not only within the MRB, but other watersheds throughout the world.

Installing logic-gate responses to a variety of biological substances in supramolecular hydrogel-enzyme hybrids.

PubMed

Ikeda, Masato; Tanida, Tatsuya; Yoshii, Tatsuyuki; Kurotani, Kazuya; Onogi, Shoji; Urayama, Kenji; Hamachi, Itaru

2014-06-01

Soft materials that exhibit stimuli-responsive behaviour under aqueous conditions (such as supramolecular hydrogels composed of self-assembled nanofibres) have many potential biological applications. However, designing a macroscopic response to structurally complex biochemical stimuli in these materials still remains a challenge. Here we show that redox-responsive peptide-based hydrogels have the ability to encapsulate enzymes and still retain their activities. Moreover, cooperative coupling of enzymatic reactions with the gel response enables us to construct unique stimuli-responsive soft materials capable of sensing a variety of disease-related biomarkers. The programmable gel-sol response (even to biological samples) is visible to the naked eye. Furthermore, we built Boolean logic gates (OR and AND) into the hydrogel-enzyme hybrid materials, which were able to sense simultaneously plural specific biochemicals and execute a controlled drug release in accordance with the logic operation. The intelligent soft materials that we have developed may prove valuable in future medical diagnostics or treatments.

Installing logic-gate responses to a variety of biological substances in supramolecular hydrogel-enzyme hybrids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Masato; Tanida, Tatsuya; Yoshii, Tatsuyuki; Kurotani, Kazuya; Onogi, Shoji; Urayama, Kenji; Hamachi, Itaru

2014-06-01

Soft materials that exhibit stimuli-responsive behaviour under aqueous conditions (such as supramolecular hydrogels composed of self-assembled nanofibres) have many potential biological applications. However, designing a macroscopic response to structurally complex biochemical stimuli in these materials still remains a challenge. Here we show that redox-responsive peptide-based hydrogels have the ability to encapsulate enzymes and still retain their activities. Moreover, cooperative coupling of enzymatic reactions with the gel response enables us to construct unique stimuli-responsive soft materials capable of sensing a variety of disease-related biomarkers. The programmable gel-sol response (even to biological samples) is visible to the naked eye. Furthermore, we built Boolean logic gates (OR and AND) into the hydrogel-enzyme hybrid materials, which were able to sense simultaneously plural specific biochemicals and execute a controlled drug release in accordance with the logic operation. The intelligent soft materials that we have developed may prove valuable in future medical diagnostics or treatments.

Invited commentary: Evaluating epidemiologic research methods--the importance of response rate calculation.

PubMed

Harris, M Anne

2010-09-15

Epidemiologic research that uses administrative records (rather than registries or clinical surveys) to identify cases for study has been increasingly restricted because of concerns about privacy, making unbiased population-based research less practicable. In their article, Nattinger et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2010;172(6):637-644) present a method for using administrative data to contact participants that has been well received. However, the methods employed for calculating and reporting response rates require further consideration, particularly the classification of untraceable cases as ineligible. Depending on whether response rates are used to evaluate the potential for bias to influence study results or to evaluate the acceptability of the method of contact, different fractions may be considered. To improve the future study of epidemiologic research methods, a consensus on the calculation and reporting of study response rates should be sought.

Responses of pink salmon to CO2-induced aquatic acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, Michelle; Hamilton, Trevor J.; Eom, Junho; Lyall, Emily M.; Gallup, Joshua; Jiang, Amy; Lee, Jason; Close, David A.; Yun, Sang-Seon; Brauner, Colin J.

2015-10-01

Ocean acidification negatively affects many marine species and is predicted to cause widespread changes to marine ecosystems. Similarly, freshwater ecosystems may potentially be affected by climate-change-related acidification; however, this has received far less attention. Freshwater fish represent 40% of all fishes, and salmon, which rear and spawn in freshwater, are of immense ecosystem, economical and cultural importance. In this study, we investigate the impacts of CO2-induced acidification during the development of pink salmon, in freshwater and following early seawater entry. At this critical and sensitive life stage, we show dose-dependent reductions in growth, yolk-to-tissue conversion and maximal O2 uptake capacity; as well as significant alterations in olfactory responses, anti-predator behaviour and anxiety under projected future increases in CO2 levels. These data indicate that future populations of pink salmon may be at risk without mitigation and highlight the need for further studies on the impact of CO2-induced acidification on freshwater systems.

Heart Valve Biomechanics and Underlying Mechanobiology

PubMed Central

Ayoub, Salma; Ferrari, Giovanni; Gorman, Robert C.; Gorman, Joseph H.; Schoen, Frederick J.; Sacks, Michael S.

2017-01-01

Heart valves control unidirectional blood flow within the heart during the cardiac cycle. They have a remarkable ability to withstand the demanding mechanical environment of the heart, achieving lifetime durability by processes involving the ongoing remodeling of the extracellular matrix. The focus of this review is on heart valve functional physiology, with insights into the link between disease-induced alterations in valve geometry, tissue stress, and the subsequent cell mechanobiological responses and tissue remodeling. We begin with an overview of the fundamentals of heart valve physiology and the characteristics and functions of valve interstitial cells (VICs). We then provide an overview of current experimental and computational approaches that connect VIC mechanobiological response to organ- and tissue-level deformations and improve our understanding of the underlying functional physiology of heart valves. We conclude with a summary of future trends and offer an outlook for the future of heart valve mechanobiology, specifically, multiscale modeling approaches, and the potential directions and possible challenges of research development. PMID:27783858

Present and future molecular testing of lung carcinoma.

PubMed

Dacic, Sanja; Nikiforova, Marina N

2014-03-01

The rapid development of targeted therapies has tremendously changed clinical management of lung carcinoma patients and set the stage for similar developments in other tumor types. Many studies have been published in the past decade in search for the most acceptable method of assessment for predictors of response to targeted therapies in lung cancer. As a result, several guidelines for molecular testing have been published in a past couple of years. Because of accumulated evidence that targetable drugs show the best efficacy and improved progression survival rates in lung cancer patients whose tumors have a specific genotype, molecular testing for predictors of therapy response has became standard of care. Presently, testing for EGFR mutations and ALK rearrangements in lung adenocarcinoma has been standardized. The landscape of targetable genomic alterations in lung carcinoma is expanding, but none of other potentially targetable biomarkers have been standardized outside of clinical trials. This review will summarize current practice of molecular testing. Future methods in molecular testing of lung carcinoma will be briefly reviewed.

Rule-Selection and Action-Selection have a Shared Neuroanatomical Basis in the Human Prefrontal and Parietal Cortex

PubMed Central

Hughes, L.; Eckstein, D.; Owen, A.M.

2008-01-01

The human capacity for voluntary action is one of the major contributors to our success as a species. In addition to choosing actions themselves, we can also voluntarily choose behavioral codes or sets of rules that can guide future responses to events. Such rules have been proposed to be superordinate to actions in a cognitive hierarchy and mediated by distinct brain regions. We used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to study novel tasks of rule-based and voluntary action. We show that the voluntary selection of rules to govern future responses to events is associated with activation of similar regions of prefrontal and parietal cortex as the voluntary selection of an action itself. The results are discussed in terms of hierarchical models and the adaptive coding potential of prefrontal neurons and their contribution to a global workspace for nonautomatic tasks. These tasks include the choices we make about our behavior. PMID:18234684

Immune response to functionalized mesoporous silica nanoparticles for targeted drug delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidegger, Simon; Gößl, Dorothée; Schmidt, Alexandra; Niedermayer, Stefan; Argyo, Christian; Endres, Stefan; Bein, Thomas; Bourquin, Carole

2015-12-01

Multifunctional mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSN) have attracted substantial attention with regard to their high potential for targeted drug delivery. For future clinical applications it is crucial to address safety concerns and understand the potential immunotoxicity of these nanoparticles. In this study, we assess the biocompatibility and functionality of multifunctional MSN in freshly isolated, primary murine immune cells. We show that the functionalized silica nanoparticles are rapidly and efficiently taken up into the endosomal compartment by specialized antigen-presenting cells such as dendritic cells. The silica nanoparticles showed a favorable toxicity profile and did not affect the viability of primary immune cells from the spleen in relevant concentrations. Cargo-free MSN induced only very low immune responses in primary cells as determined by surface expression of activation markers and release of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as Interleukin-6, -12 and -1β. In contrast, when surface-functionalized MSN with a pH-responsive polymer capping were loaded with an immune-activating drug, the synthetic Toll-like receptor 7 agonist R848, a strong immune response was provoked. We thus demonstrate that MSN represent an efficient drug delivery vehicle to primary immune cells that is both non-toxic and non-inflammagenic, which is a prerequisite for the use of these particles in biomedical applications.Multifunctional mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSN) have attracted substantial attention with regard to their high potential for targeted drug delivery. For future clinical applications it is crucial to address safety concerns and understand the potential immunotoxicity of these nanoparticles. In this study, we assess the biocompatibility and functionality of multifunctional MSN in freshly isolated, primary murine immune cells. We show that the functionalized silica nanoparticles are rapidly and efficiently taken up into the endosomal compartment by specialized antigen-presenting cells such as dendritic cells. The silica nanoparticles showed a favorable toxicity profile and did not affect the viability of primary immune cells from the spleen in relevant concentrations. Cargo-free MSN induced only very low immune responses in primary cells as determined by surface expression of activation markers and release of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as Interleukin-6, -12 and -1β. In contrast, when surface-functionalized MSN with a pH-responsive polymer capping were loaded with an immune-activating drug, the synthetic Toll-like receptor 7 agonist R848, a strong immune response was provoked. We thus demonstrate that MSN represent an efficient drug delivery vehicle to primary immune cells that is both non-toxic and non-inflammagenic, which is a prerequisite for the use of these particles in biomedical applications. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr06122a

Recent Advances in Nanotechnology for Diabetes Treatment

PubMed Central

DiSanto, Rocco Michael; Subramanian, Vinayak; Gu, Zhen

2015-01-01

Nanotechnology in diabetes research has facilitated the development of novel glucose measurement and insulin delivery modalities which hold the potential to dramatically improve quality of life for diabetics. Recent progress in the field of diabetes research at its interface with nanotechnology is our focus. In particular, we examine glucose sensors with nanoscale components including metal nanoparticles and carbon nanostructures. The addition of nanoscale components commonly increases glucose sensor sensitivity, temporal response, and can lead to sensors which facilitate continuous in vivo glucose monitoring. Additionally, we survey nanoscale approaches to “closed-loop” insulin delivery strategies which automatically release insulin in response to fluctuating blood glucose levels. “Closing the loop” between blood glucose level (BGL) measurements and insulin administration by removing the requirement of patient action holds the potential to dramatically improve the health and quality of life of diabetics. Advantages and limitations of current strategies, as well as future opportunities and challenges are also discussed. PMID:25641955

ECM-Based Materials in Cardiovascular Applications: Inherent Healing Potential and Augmentation of Native Regenerative Processes

PubMed Central

Piterina, Anna V.; Cloonan, Aidan J.; Meaney, Claire L.; Davis, Laura M.; Callanan, Anthony; Walsh, Michael T.; McGloughlin, Tim M.

2009-01-01

The in vivo healing process of vascular grafts involves the interaction of many contributing factors. The ability of vascular grafts to provide an environment which allows successful accomplishment of this process is extremely difficult. Poor endothelisation, inflammation, infection, occlusion, thrombosis, hyperplasia and pseudoaneurysms are common issues with synthetic grafts in vivo. Advanced materials composed of decellularised extracellular matrices (ECM) have been shown to promote the healing process via modulation of the host immune response, resistance to bacterial infections, allowing re-innervation and reestablishing homeostasis in the healing region. The physiological balance within the newly developed vascular tissue is maintained via the recreation of correct biorheology and mechanotransduction factors including host immune response, infection control, homing and the attraction of progenitor cells and infiltration by host tissue. Here, we review the progress in this tissue engineering approach, the enhancement potential of ECM materials and future prospects to reach the clinical environment. PMID:20057951

Probiotics and down-regulation of the allergic response.

PubMed

Kalliomäki, Marko A; Isolauri, Erika

2004-11-01

The first clinical trials with probiotics, especially in the treatment of atopic eczema, have yielded encouraging results. Experimental studies have found that probiotics exert strain-specific effects in the intestinal lumen and on epithelial cells and immune cells with anti-allergic potential. These effects include enhancement in antigen degradation and gut barrier function and induction of regulatory and proinflammatory immune responses, the latter of which occurs more likely beyond the intestinal epithelium. Future studies should address more accurately how these and other possible mechanisms operate in the complex gastrointestinal macroenvironment in vivo and how these mechanisms are related to the clinical effects in a dose-dependent manner.

Insights on adaptive and innate immunity in canine leishmaniosis.

PubMed

Hosein, Shazia; Blake, Damer P; Solano-Gallego, Laia

2017-01-01

Canine leishmaniosis (CanL) is caused by the parasite Leishmania infantum and is a systemic disease, which can present with variable clinical signs, and clinicopathological abnormalities. Clinical manifestations can range from subclinical infection to very severe systemic disease. Leishmaniosis is categorized as a neglected tropical disease and the complex immune responses associated with Leishmania species makes therapeutic treatments and vaccine development challenging for both dogs and humans. In this review, we summarize innate and adaptive immune responses associated with L. infantum infection in dogs, and we discuss the problems associated with the disease as well as potential solutions and the future direction of required research to help control the parasite.

Investigate the plant biomass response to climate warming in permafrost ecosystem using matrix-based data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, X.; Du, Z.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Permafrost is one of the most vulnerable regions on the earth with over 40% world soil C represented in this region. Future climate warming potentially has a great impact on this region. On one hand, rising temperature accelerates permafrost soil thaw and release more C from land. On the other hand, warming may also increase the plant growing season length and therefore negatively feedback to climate change by increasing annual land C uptake. However, whether permafrost vegetation biomass change in response to warming can sequester more C has not been well understood. Manipulated air warming experiments reported that air warming has very limited impacts on grass land productivity and biomass growth in permafrost region [Mauritz et al., 2017]. It is hard to reveal the mechanisms behind the limited air warming response directly from experiment data. We employ a vegetation C cycle matrix model based on Community land model 4.5 (CLM4.5) and data assimilation technique to investigate how much do phenology and physiology processes contribute to the response respectively. Our results indicate phenology contributes the most in response to warming. The shift of vegetation parameter distributions after 2012 indicate vegetation acclimation may explain the modest response in plant biomass to air warming. The results suggest future model development need to take vegetation acclimation more seriously. The novel matrix-based model allows data assimilation to be conducted more efficiently. It provides more functional understanding of the models as well as the mechanism behind experiment data.

Impacts of climate change on Oregon's coasts and estuaries: Chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruggiero,; Brown, Cheryl A.; Komar, Paul D.; Allan, Jonathan C.; Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee,

2010-01-01

In the following sections we attempt to summarize the most recent literature documenting historical changes as well as what may be expected to occur in response to climate change. Where little information is available we draw preliminary conclusions about the potential for specific impacts. When possible we highlight what research is needed to bridge knowledge gaps to improve our ability to identify climate change impacts more precisely, ultimately allowing for future projections.

A scientific role for Space Station Freedom: Research at the cellular level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Terry C.; Brady, John N.

1993-01-01

The scientific importance of Space Station Freedom is discussed in light of the valuable information that can be gained in cellular and developmental biology with regard to the microgravity environment on the cellular cytoskeleton, cellular responses to extracellular signal molecules, morphology, events associated with cell division, and cellular physiology. Examples of studies in basic cell biology, as well as their potential importance to concerns for future enabling strategies, are presented.

Assessment of the efficacy of medical countermeasures in space flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicogossian, A. E.; Sulzman, F.; Radtke, M.; Bungo, M.

1989-01-01

Changes in body fluids, electrolytes, and muscle mass are manifestations of adaptation to space flight and readaptation to the 1-g environment. The purposes of this paper are to review the current knowledge of biomedical responses to short- and long-duration space missions and to assess the efficacy of countermeasures to 1-g conditioning. Exercise protocols, fluid hydration, dietary and potential pharmacologic measures are evaluated, and directions for future research activities are recommended.

Assessment of the efficacy of medical countermeasures in space flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicogossian, A.; Sulzman, F.; Radtke, M.; Bungo, M.

1988-01-01

Changes in body fluids, electrolytes, and muscle mass are manifestations of adaptation to space flight and readaptation to the 1-g environment. The purposes of this paper are to review the current knowledge of biomedical responses to short- and long-duration space missions and to assess the efficacy of countermeasures to 1-g conditioning. Exercise protocols, fluid hydration, dietary and potential pharmacologic measures are evaluated, and directions for future research activities are recommended.

Variation in the ovine cortisol response to systemic bacterial endotoxin challenge is predominantly determined by signalling within the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

You Qiumei; Karrow, Niel A.; Cao Honghe

Bi-directional communication between the neuroendocrine and immune systems is designed, in part, to maintain or restore homeostasis during physiological stress. Exposure to endotoxin during Gram-negative bacterial infection for example, elicits the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines that activate the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA). The secretion of adrenal glucocorticoids subsequently down regulates the host inflammatory response, minimizing potential tissue damage. Sequence and epigenetic variants in genes involved in regulating the neuroendocrine and immune systems are likely to contribute to individual differences in the HPAA response, and this may influence the host anti-inflammatory response to toxin exposure and susceptibility to inflammatory disease. In thismore » study, high (HCR) and low (LCR) cortisol responders were selected from a normal population of 110 female sheep challenged iv with Escherichia coli endotoxin (400 ng/kg) to identify potential determinants that contribute to variation in the cortisol response phenotype. This phenotype was stable over several years in the HCR and LCR animals, and did not appear to be attributed to differences in expression of hepatic immune-related genes or systemic pro-inflammatory cytokine concentrations. Mechanistic studies using corticotrophin-releasing factor (0.5 {mu}g/kg body weight), arginine vasopressin (0.5 {mu}g/kg), and adrenocorticotropic hormone (0.5 {mu}g/kg) administered iv demonstrated that variation in this phenotype is largely determined by signalling within the HPAA. Future studies will use this ovine HCR/LCR model to investigate potential genetic and epigenetic variants that may contribute to variation in cortisol responsiveness to bacterial endotoxin.« less

88 hours: the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center response to the March 11, 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, David J.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul S.; Briggs, Richard W.

2011-01-01

The M 9.0 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and associated tsunami near the east coast of the island of Honshu caused tens of thousands of deaths and potentially over one trillion dollars in damage, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters ever recorded. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS NEIC), through its responsibility to respond to all significant global earthquakes as part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, quickly produced and distributed a suite of earthquake information products to inform emergency responders, the public, the media, and the academic community of the earthquake's potential impact and to provide scientific background for the interpretation of the event's tectonic context and potential for future hazard. Here we present a timeline of the NEIC response to this devastating earthquake in the context of rapidly evolving information emanating from the global earthquake-response community. The timeline includes both internal and publicly distributed products, the relative timing of which highlights the inherent tradeoffs between the requirement to provide timely alerts and the necessity for accurate, authoritative information. The timeline also documents the iterative and evolutionary nature of the standard products produced by the NEIC and includes a behind-the-scenes look at the decisions, data, and analysis tools that drive our rapid product distribution.

Responsive Feeding: Implications for Policy and Program Implementation12

PubMed Central

Engle, Patrice L.; Pelto, Gretel H.

2011-01-01

In this article, we examine responsive feeding as a nutrition intervention, with an emphasis on the development and incorporation of responsive feeding into policies and programs over the last 2 decades and recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of responsive feeding interventions. A review of policy documents from international agencies and high-income countries reveals that responsive feeding has been incorporated into nutrition policies. Official guidelines from international agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and professional organizations often include best practice recommendations for responsive feeding. Four potential explanations are offered for the rapid development of policies related to responsive feeding that have occurred despite the relatively recent recognition that responsive feeding plays a critical role in child nutrition and growth and the paucity of effectiveness trials to determine strategies to promote responsive feeding. Looking to the future, 3 issues related to program implementation are highlighted: 1) improving intervention specificity relative to responsive feeding; 2) developing protocols that facilitate efficient adaptation of generic guidelines to national contexts and local conditions; and 3) development of program support materials, including training, monitoring, and operational evaluation. PMID:21270361

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Wolf (Canis lupus) Breeding Areas in a Mountainous Region of Central Italy

PubMed Central

Bassi, Elena; Willis, Stephen G.; Passilongo, Daniela; Mattioli, Luca; Apollonio, Marco

2015-01-01

Wolves (Canis lupus) in Italy represent a relict west European population. They are classified as vulnerable by IUCN, though have increased in number and expanded their range in recent decades. Here we use 17 years of monitoring data (from 1993 to 2010) collected in a mountainous region of central Italy (Arezzo, Tuscany) in an ecological niche-based model (MaxEnt) to characterize breeding sites (i.e. the areas where pups were raised) within home ranges, as detected from play-back responses. From a suite of variables related to topography, habitat and human disturbance we found that elevation and distance to protected areas were most important in explaining the locality of wolf responses. Rendezvous sites (family play-back response sites) typically occurred between 800 and 1200 m a.s.l., inside protected areas, and were usually located along mountain chains distant from human settlements and roads. In these areas human disturbance is low and the densities of ungulates are typically high. Over recent years, rendezvous sites have occurred closer to urban areas as the wolf population has continued to expand, despite the consequent human disturbance. This suggests that undisturbed landscapes may be reaching their carrying capacity for wolves. This, in turn, may lead to the potential for increased human-wolf interactions in future. Applying our model, both within and beyond the species’ current range, we identify sites both within the current range and also further afield, that the species could occupy in future. Our work underlines the importance of the present protected areas network in facilitating the recolonisation by wolves. Our projections of suitability of sites for future establishment as the population continues to expand could inform planning to minimize future wolf-human conflicts. PMID:26035174

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Automation in future air traffic management: effects of decision aid reliability on controller performance and mental workload.

PubMed

Metzger, Ulla; Parasuraman, Raja

2005-01-01

Future air traffic management concepts envisage shared decision-making responsibilities between controllers and pilots, necessitating that controllers be supported by automated decision aids. Even as automation tools are being introduced, however, their impact on the air traffic controller is not well understood. The present experiments examined the effects of an aircraft-to-aircraft conflict decision aid on performance and mental workload of experienced, full-performance level controllers in a simulated Free Flight environment. Performance was examined with both reliable (Experiment 1) and inaccurate automation (Experiment 2). The aid improved controller performance and reduced mental workload when it functioned reliably. However, detection of a particular conflict was better under manual conditions than under automated conditions when the automation was imperfect. Potential or actual applications of the results include the design of automation and procedures for future air traffic control systems.

Tracking metastatic breast cancer: the future of biology in biosensors.

PubMed

Lim, Y C; Wiegmans, A P

2016-04-01

Circulating tumour cells associated with breast cancer (brCTCs) represent cells that have the capability to establish aggressive secondary metastatic tumours. The isolation and characterization of CTCs from blood in a single device is the future of oncology diagnosis and treatment. The methods of enrichment of CTCs have primarily utilized simple biological interactions with bimodal reporting with biased high purity and low numbers or low purity and high background. In this review, we will discuss the advances in microfluidics that has allowed the use of more complex selection criteria and biological methods to identify CTC populations. We will also discuss a potential new method of selection based on the response of the oncogenic DNA repair pathways within brCTCs. This method would allow insight into not only the oncogenic signalling at play but the chemoresistance mechanisms that could guide future therapeutic intervention at any stage of disease progression.

A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity.

PubMed

Pepper, D A; Lada, Hania; Thomson, James R; Bakar, K Shuvo; Lake, P S; Mac Nally, Ralph

2017-03-01

Human society has a profound adverse effect on natural assets as human populations increase and as global climate changes. We need to envisage different futures that encompass plausible human responses to threats and change, and become more mindful of their likely impacts on natural assets. We describe a method for developing a set of future scenarios for a natural asset at national scale under ongoing human population growth and climate change. The method involves expansive consideration of potential drivers of societal change, a reduction of these to form a small set of key drivers to which contrasting settings are assigned, which we use to develop a set of different scenarios. We use Australia's native biodiversity as the focus to illustrate the method. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk management, financial evaluation and funding for wastewater and stormwater reuse projects.

PubMed

Furlong, Casey; De Silva, Saman; Gan, Kein; Guthrie, Lachlan; Considine, Robert

2017-04-15

This paper has considered risk management, financial evaluation and funding in seven Australian wastewater and stormwater reuse projects. From the investigated case studies it can be seen that responsible parties have generally been well equipped to identify potential risks. In relation to financial evaluation methods some serious discrepancies, such as time periods for analysis, and how stormwater benefits are valued, have been identified. Most of the projects have required external, often National Government, funding to proceed. As National funding is likely to become less common in the future, future reuse projects may need to be funded internally by the water industry. In order to enable this the authors propose that the industry requires (1) a standard project evaluation process, and (2) an infrastructure funders' forum (or committee) with representation from both utilities and regulators, in order to compare and prioritise future reuse projects against each other. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of CO2-Driven Vegetation Changes on Wildfire Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skinner, C. B.; Poulsen, C. J.

2017-12-01

While wildfires are a key component of natural ecological restoration and succession, they also pose tremendous risks to human life, health, and property. Wildfire frequency is expected to increase in many regions as the radiative effects of elevated CO2 drive warmer surface air temperatures, earlier spring snow melt, and more frequent meteorological drought. However, high CO2 concentrations will also directly impact vegetation growth and physiology, potentially altering wildfire characteristics through changes in fuel amount and surface hydrology. Depending on the biome and time of year, these vegetation-driven responses may mitigate or enhance radiative-driven wildfire changes. In this study, we use a suite of earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 with active biogeophysics and biogeochemistry to understand how the vegetation response to high CO2 (CO2 quadrupling) contributes to future changes in wildfire risk across the globe. Across the models, projected CO2 fertilization enhances aboveground biomass (about a 30% leaf area index (LAI) increase averaged across the globe) during the spring and summer months, increasing the availability of wildfire fuel across all biomes. Despite greater LAI, models robustly project widespread reductions in summer season transpiration (about -15% averaged across the globe) in response to reduced stomatal conductance from CO2 physiological forcing. Reduced transpiration warms summer season near surface temperatures and lowers relative humidity across vegetated regions of the mid-to-high latitudes, heightening the risk of wildfire occurrence. However, as transpiration goes down in response to greater plant water use efficiency, a larger fraction of soil water remains in the soil, potentially halting the spread of wildfires in some regions. Given the myriad ways in which the vegetation response to CO2 may alter wildfire risk, and the robustness of the responses across models, an explicit simulation of the wildfire response to CO2-driven vegetation change with the Community Earth System Model will be presented. The results suggest that many atmosphere-centric statistical wildfire metrics do not capture the many processes that will shape future wildfire risk in a high CO2 world and highlight the need for process-based fire modeling.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

PubMed Central

Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

2014-01-01

The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands’ responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

Transcranial electric stimulation for the investigation of speech perception and comprehension

PubMed Central

Zoefel, Benedikt; Davis, Matthew H.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Transcranial electric stimulation (tES), comprising transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) and transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS), involves applying weak electrical current to the scalp, which can be used to modulate membrane potentials and thereby modify neural activity. Critically, behavioural or perceptual consequences of this modulation provide evidence for a causal role of neural activity in the stimulated brain region for the observed outcome. We present tES as a tool for the investigation of which neural responses are necessary for successful speech perception and comprehension. We summarise existing studies, along with challenges that need to be overcome, potential solutions, and future directions. We conclude that, although standardised stimulation parameters still need to be established, tES is a promising tool for revealing the neural basis of speech processing. Future research can use this method to explore the causal role of brain regions and neural processes for the perception and comprehension of speech. PMID:28670598

The cyclical nature of depressed mood and future risk: Depression, rumination, and deficits in emotional clarity in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Rubenstein, Liza M.; Hamilton, Jessica L.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Flynn, Megan; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2015-01-01

Deficits in emotional clarity, the understanding and awareness of one’s own emotions and the ability to label them appropriately, are associated with increased depressive symptoms. Surprisingly, few studies have examined factors associated with reduction in emotional clarity for adolescents, such as depressed mood and ruminative response styles. The present study examined rumination as a potential mediator of the relationship between depressive symptoms and changes in emotional clarity, focusing on sex differences. Participants included 223 adolescents (51.60% female, Mean age = 12.39). Controlling for baseline levels of emotional clarity, initial depressive symptoms predicted decreases in emotional clarity. Further, rumination prospectively mediated the relationship between baseline depressive symptoms and follow-up emotional clarity for girls, but not boys. Findings suggest that depressive symptoms may increase girls’ tendencies to engage in repetitive, negative thinking, which may reduce the ability to understand and label emotions, a potentially cyclical process that confers vulnerability to future depression. PMID:25931160

Controls on Soil Organic Matter in Blue Carbon Ecosystems along the South Florida Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smoak, J. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Moyer, R. P.; Radabaugh, K.; Chambers, L. G.; Lagomasino, D.; Lynch, J.; Cahoon, D. R.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands store disproportionately large amounts of carbon due to high rates of net primary productivity and slow microbial degradation of organic matter in water-saturated soils. Wide spatial and temporal variability in plant communities and soil biogeochemistry necessitate location-specific quantification of carbon stocks to improve current wetland carbon inventories and future projections. We apply field measurements, remote sensing technology, and spatiotemporal models to quantify regional carbon storage and to model future spatial variability of carbon stocks in mangroves and coastal marshes in Southwest Florida. We examine soil carbon accumulation and accretion rates on time scales ranging from decadal to millennial to project responses to climate change, including variations in inundation and salinity. Once freshwater and oligohaline wetlands are exposed to increased duration and spatial extent of inundation and salinity from seawater, soil redox potential, soil respiration, and the intensification of osmotic stress to vegetation and the soil microbial community can affect the soil C balance potentially increasing rates of mineralization.

The future of type 1 cannabinoid receptor allosteric ligands.

PubMed

Alaverdashvili, Mariam; Laprairie, Robert B

2018-02-01

Allosteric modulation of the type 1 cannabinoid receptor (CB1R) holds great therapeutic potential. This is because allosteric modulators do not possess intrinsic efficacy, but instead augment (positive allosteric modulation) or diminish (negative allosteric modulation) the receptor's response to endogenous ligand. Consequently, CB1R allosteric modulators have an effect ceiling which allows for the tempering of CB1R signaling without the desensitization, tolerance, dependence, and psychoactivity associated with orthosteric compounds. Pain, movement disorders, epilepsy, obesity are all potential therapeutic targets for CB1R allosteric modulation. Several challenges exist for the development of CB1R allosteric modulators, such as receptor subtype specificity, translation to in vivo systems, and mixed allosteric/agonist/inverse agonist activity. Despite these challenges, elucidation of crystal structures of CB1R and compound design based on structure-activity relationships will advance the field. In this review, we will cover recent progress for CB1R allosteric modulators and discuss the future promise of this research.

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

The challenge of measuring emergency preparedness: integrating component metrics to build system-level measures for strategic national stockpile operations.

PubMed

Jackson, Brian A; Faith, Kay Sullivan

2013-02-01

Although significant progress has been made in measuring public health emergency preparedness, system-level performance measures are lacking. This report examines a potential approach to such measures for Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) operations. We adapted an engineering analytic technique used to assess the reliability of technological systems-failure mode and effects analysis-to assess preparedness. That technique, which includes systematic mapping of the response system and identification of possible breakdowns that affect performance, provides a path to use data from existing SNS assessment tools to estimate likely future performance of the system overall. Systems models of SNS operations were constructed and failure mode analyses were performed for each component. Linking data from existing assessments, including the technical assistance review and functional drills, to reliability assessment was demonstrated using publicly available information. The use of failure mode and effects estimates to assess overall response system reliability was demonstrated with a simple simulation example. Reliability analysis appears an attractive way to integrate information from the substantial investment in detailed assessments for stockpile delivery and dispensing to provide a view of likely future response performance.

Cardiovascular reactivity patterns and pathways to hypertension: a multivariate cluster analysis.

PubMed

Brindle, R C; Ginty, A T; Jones, A; Phillips, A C; Roseboom, T J; Carroll, D; Painter, R C; de Rooij, S R

2016-12-01

Substantial evidence links exaggerated mental stress induced blood pressure reactivity to future hypertension, but the results for heart rate reactivity are less clear. For this reason multivariate cluster analysis was carried out to examine the relationship between heart rate and blood pressure reactivity patterns and hypertension in a large prospective cohort (age range 55-60 years). Four clusters emerged with statistically different systolic and diastolic blood pressure and heart rate reactivity patterns. Cluster 1 was characterised by a relatively exaggerated blood pressure and heart rate response while the blood pressure and heart rate responses of cluster 2 were relatively modest and in line with the sample mean. Cluster 3 was characterised by blunted cardiovascular stress reactivity across all variables and cluster 4, by an exaggerated blood pressure response and modest heart rate response. Membership to cluster 4 conferred an increased risk of hypertension at 5-year follow-up (hazard ratio=2.98 (95% CI: 1.50-5.90), P<0.01) that survived adjustment for a host of potential confounding variables. These results suggest that the cardiac reactivity plays a potentially important role in the link between blood pressure reactivity and hypertension and support the use of multivariate approaches to stress psychophysiology.

Chromatic and Achromatic Spatial Resolution of Local Field Potentials in Awake Cortex.

PubMed

Jansen, Michael; Li, Xiaobing; Lashgari, Reza; Kremkow, Jens; Bereshpolova, Yulia; Swadlow, Harvey A; Zaidi, Qasim; Alonso, Jose-Manuel

2015-10-01

Local field potentials (LFPs) have become an important measure of neuronal population activity in the brain and could provide robust signals to guide the implant of visual cortical prosthesis in the future. However, it remains unclear whether LFPs can detect weak cortical responses (e.g., cortical responses to equiluminant color) and whether they have enough visual spatial resolution to distinguish different chromatic and achromatic stimulus patterns. By recording from awake behaving macaques in primary visual cortex, here we demonstrate that LFPs respond robustly to pure chromatic stimuli and exhibit ∼2.5 times lower spatial resolution for chromatic than achromatic stimulus patterns, a value that resembles the ratio of achromatic/chromatic resolution measured with psychophysical experiments in humans. We also show that, although the spatial resolution of LFP decays with visual eccentricity as is also the case for single neurons, LFPs have higher spatial resolution and show weaker response suppression to low spatial frequencies than spiking multiunit activity. These results indicate that LFP recordings are an excellent approach to measure spatial resolution from local populations of neurons in visual cortex including those responsive to color. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

Rectified tunneling current response of bio-functionalized metal-bridge-metal junctions.

PubMed

Liu, Yaqing; Offenhäusser, Andreas; Mayer, Dirk

2010-01-15

Biomolecular bridged nanostructures allow direct electrical addressing of electroactive biomolecules, which is of interest for the development of bioelectronic and biosensing hybrid junctions. In the present paper, the electroactive biomolecule microperoxidase-11 (MP-11) was integrated into metal-bridge-metal (MBM) junctions assembled from a scanning tunneling microscope (STM) setup. Before immobilization of MP-11, the Au working electrode was first modified by a self-assembled monolayer of 1-undecanethiol (UDT). A symmetric and potential independent response of current-bias voltage (I(t)/V(b)) was observed for the Au (substrate)/UDT/Au (tip) junction. However, the I(t)/V(b) characteristics became potential dependent and asymmetrical after binding of MP-11 between the electrodes of the junction. The rectification ratio of the asymmetric current response varies with gate electrode modulation. A resonant tunneling process between metal electrode and MP-11 enhances the tunneling current and is responsible for the observed rectification. Our investigations demonstrated that functional building blocks of proteins can be reassembled into new conceptual devices with operation modes deviating from their native function, which could prove highly useful in the design of future biosensors and bioelectronic devices. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Islet xenotransplantation from genetically engineered pigs.

PubMed

Nagaraju, Santosh; Bottino, Rita; Wijkstrom, Martin; Hara, Hidetaka; Trucco, Massimo; Cooper, David K C

2013-12-01

Pigs have emerged as potential sources of islets for clinical transplantation. Wild-type porcine islets (adult and neonatal) transplanted into the portal vein have successfully reversed diabetes in nonhuman primates. However, there is a rapid loss of the transplanted islets on exposure to blood, known as the instant blood-mediated inflammatory reaction (IBMIR), as well as a T-cell response that leads to rejection of the graft. Genetically modified pig islets offer a number of potential advantages, particularly with regard to reducing the IBMIR-related graft loss and protecting the islets from the primate immune response. Emerging data indicate that transgenes specifically targeted to pig β cells using an insulin promoter (in order to maximize target tissue expression while limiting host effects) can be achieved without significant effects on the pig's glucose metabolism. Experience with the transplantation of islets from genetically engineered pigs into nonhuman primates is steadily increasing, and has involved the deletion of pig antigenic targets to reduce the primate humoral response, the expression of transgenes for human complement-regulatory and coagulation-regulatory proteins, and manipulations to reduce the effect of the T-cell response. There is increasing evidence of the advantages of using genetically engineered pigs as sources of islets for future clinical trials.

Are gay men and lesbians discriminated against when applying for jobs? A four-city, Internet-based field experiment.

PubMed

Bailey, John; Wallace, Michael; Wright, Bradley

2013-01-01

An Internet-based field experiment was conducted to examine potential hiring discrimination based on sexual orientation; specifically, the "first contact" between job applicants and employers was looked at. In response to Internet job postings on CareerBuilder.com®, more than 4,600 resumes were sent to employers in 4 U.S. cities: Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco. The resumes varied randomly with regard to gender, implied sexual orientation, and other characteristics. Two hypotheses were tested: first, that employers' response rates vary by the applicants' assumed sexuality; and second, that employers' Response Rates by Sexuality vary by city. Effects of city were controlled for to hold constant any variation in labor market conditions in the 4 cities. Based on employer responses to the applications, it was concluded that there is no evidence that gay men or lesbians are discriminated against in their first encounter with employers, and no significant variation across cities in these encounters was found. Implications of these results for the literature on hiring discrimination based on sexual orientation, the strengths and limitations of the research, and the potential for the Internet-based field experiment design in future studies of discrimination are discussed.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-11-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-01-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering: Overview of the earth system science of solar geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to cool the planet by increasing the reflection of sunlight back to space, for example by injecting reflective aerosol particles into the middle atmosphere. Such proposals are not able to physically substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions as a response to the risks of climate change, but might eventually be applied as a complementary approach to reduce climate risks. Thus, the Earth system consequences of solar geoengineering are central to understanding its potentials and risks. Here we review the state-of-the-art knowledge about geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection. We examine themore » common responses found in studies of an idealized form of solar geoengineering, in which the intensity of incoming sunlight is directly reduced in models. The studies reviewed are consistent in suggesting that solar geoengineering would generally reduce the differences in climate in comparison to future scenarios with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations and no solar geoengineering. However, it is clear that a solar geoengineered climate would be novel in some respects, for example a notable reduction in the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We provide an overview of the unique aspects of the response to stratospheric aerosol injection and the uncertainties around its consequences. We also consider the issues raised by the partial control over the climate that solar geoengineering would allow. Finally, this overview also highlights the key research gaps that will need to be resolved in order to effectively guide future decisions on the potential use of solar geoengineering.« less

Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance.

PubMed

Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Soussana, Jean-François; Klumpp, Katja; Sultan, Benjamin

2017-12-01

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071-2100 is predicted to be 1-5.5 °C higher than that for 1971-2000. Climate change and elevated CO 2 concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change. Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO 2 . The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C. This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers' ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

Multiple stressors in Southern Africa: the link between HIV/AIDS, food insecurity, poverty and children's vulnerability now and in the future

PubMed Central

Drimie, Scott; Casale, Marisa

2009-01-01

Several countries in Southern Africa now see large numbers of their population barely subsisting at poverty levels in years without shocks, and highly vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather, the economy and government policy. The combination of HIV/AIDS, food insecurity and a weakened capacity for governments to deliver basic social services has led to the region experiencing an acute phase of a long-term emergency. “Vulnerability” is a term commonly used by scientists and practitioners to describe these deteriorating conditions. There is particular concern about the “vulnerability” of children in this context and implications for children's future security. Through a review of literature and recent case studies, and using a widely accepted conceptualisation of vulnerability as a lens, we reflect on what the regional livelihoods crisis could mean for children's future wellbeing. We argue that an increase in factors determining the vulnerability of households — both through greater intensity and frequency of shocks and stresses (“external” vulnerability) and undermined resilience or ability to cope (“internal” vulnerability) — are threatening not only current welfare of children, but also their longer-term security. The two specific pathways we explore are (1) erosive coping strategies employed by families and individuals; and (2) their inability to plan for the future. We conclude that understanding and responding to this crisis requires looking at the complexity of these multiple stressors, to try to comprehend their interconnections and causal links. Policy and programme responses have, to date, largely failed to take into account the complex and multi-dimensional nature of this crisis. There is a misfit between the problem and the institutional response, as responses from national and international players have remained relatively static. Decisive, well-informed and holistic interventions are needed to break the potential negative cycle that threatens the future security of Southern Africa's children. PMID:22380976

Plastic and Human Health: A Micro Issue?

PubMed

Wright, Stephanie L; Kelly, Frank J

2017-06-20

Microplastics are a pollutant of environmental concern. Their presence in food destined for human consumption and in air samples has been reported. Thus, microplastic exposure via diet or inhalation could occur, the human health effects of which are unknown. The current review article draws upon cross-disciplinary scientific literature to discuss and evaluate the potential human health impacts of microplastics and outlines urgent areas for future research. Key literature up to September 2016 relating to accumulation, particle toxicity, and chemical and microbial contaminants was critically examined. Although microplastics and human health is an emerging field, complementary existing fields indicate potential particle, chemical and microbial hazards. If inhaled or ingested, microplastics may accumulate and exert localized particle toxicity by inducing or enhancing an immune response. Chemical toxicity could occur due to the localized leaching of component monomers, endogenous additives, and adsorbed environmental pollutants. Chronic exposure is anticipated to be of greater concern due to the accumulative effect that could occur. This is expected to be dose-dependent, and a robust evidence-base of exposure levels is currently lacking. Although there is potential for microplastics to impact human health, assessing current exposure levels and burdens is key. This information will guide future research into the potential mechanisms of toxicity and hence therein possible health effects.

Application of a Taxonomy to Characterize the Public Health Workforce.

PubMed

Beck, Angela J; Meit, Michael; Heffernan, Megan; Boulton, Matthew L

2015-01-01

A public health workforce taxonomy was published in 2014 to provide a standardized mechanism for describing public health worker characteristics. The Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey (PH WINS) used 7 of the taxonomy's 12 axes as a basis for its survey response choices, 3 of which are the focus of this analysis. The purpose of this study was to determine the relative utility, reliability, and accuracy of the public health workforce taxonomy in categorizing local and state public health workers using a survey tool. This specifically included the goal of reducing the number of responses classified as "other" occupation, certification, or program area by recoding responses into taxonomy categories and determining potential missing categories for recommendation to the advisory committee that developed the taxonomy. Survey questions associated with the occupation, certification, and program area taxonomy axes yielded qualitative data from respondents who selected "other." The "other" responses were coded by 2 separate research teams at the University of Michigan Center of Excellence in Public Health Workforce Studies and NORC at the University of Chicago. Researchers assigned taxonomy categories to all analyzable qualitative responses and assessed the percentage of PH WINS responses that could be successfully mapped to taxonomy categories. Between respondent self-selection and research team recoding, the public health workforce taxonomy successfully categorized 95% of occupation responses, 75% of credential responses, and 83% of program area responses. Occupational categories that may be considered for inclusion in the taxonomy in the future include disease intervention specialists and occupations associated with regulation, certification, and licensing. The public health workforce taxonomy performed remarkably well in categorizing worker characteristics in its first use in a national survey. The analysis provides some recommendations for future taxonomy refinement.

Interviewing Practices, Conversational Practices, and Rapport: Responsiveness and Engagement in the Standardized Survey Interview.

PubMed

Garbarski, Dana; Schaeffer, Nora Cate; Dykema, Jennifer

2016-08-01

"Rapport" has been used to refer to a range of positive psychological features of an interaction -- including a situated sense of connection or affiliation between interactional partners, comfort, willingness to disclose or share sensitive information, motivation to please, or empathy. Rapport could potentially benefit survey participation and response quality by increasing respondents' motivation to participate, disclose, or provide accurate information. Rapport could also harm data quality if motivation to ingratiate or affiliate caused respondents to suppress undesirable information. Some previous research suggests that motives elicited when rapport is high conflict with the goals of standardized interviewing. We examine rapport as an interactional phenomenon, attending to both the content and structure of talk. Using questions about end-of-life planning in the 2003-2005 wave of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we observe that rapport consists of behaviors that can be characterized as dimensions of responsiveness by interviewers and engagement by respondents. We identify and describe types of responsiveness and engagement in selected question-answer sequences and then devise a coding scheme to examine their analytic potential with respect to the criterion of future study participation. Our analysis suggests that responsive and engaged behaviors vary with respect to the goals of standardization-some conflict with these goals, while others complement them.

Interviewing Practices, Conversational Practices, and Rapport: Responsiveness and Engagement in the Standardized Survey Interview

PubMed Central

Garbarski, Dana; Schaeffer, Nora Cate; Dykema, Jennifer

2016-01-01

“Rapport” has been used to refer to a range of positive psychological features of an interaction -- including a situated sense of connection or affiliation between interactional partners, comfort, willingness to disclose or share sensitive information, motivation to please, or empathy. Rapport could potentially benefit survey participation and response quality by increasing respondents’ motivation to participate, disclose, or provide accurate information. Rapport could also harm data quality if motivation to ingratiate or affiliate caused respondents to suppress undesirable information. Some previous research suggests that motives elicited when rapport is high conflict with the goals of standardized interviewing. We examine rapport as an interactional phenomenon, attending to both the content and structure of talk. Using questions about end-of-life planning in the 2003–2005 wave of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we observe that rapport consists of behaviors that can be characterized as dimensions of responsiveness by interviewers and engagement by respondents. We identify and describe types of responsiveness and engagement in selected question-answer sequences and then devise a coding scheme to examine their analytic potential with respect to the criterion of future study participation. Our analysis suggests that responsive and engaged behaviors vary with respect to the goals of standardization—some conflict with these goals, while others complement them. PMID:27867231

Decreased response inhibition to sad faces during explicit and implicit tasks in females with depression: Evidence from an event-related potential study.

PubMed

Yu, Fengqiong; Zhou, Xiaoqing; Qing, Wu; Li, Dan; Li, Jing; Chen, Xingui; Ji, Gongjun; Dong, Yi; Luo, Yuejia; Zhu, Chunyan; Wang, Kai

2017-01-30

The present study aimed to investigate neural substrates of response inhibition to sad faces across explicit and implicit tasks in depressed female patients. Event-related potentials were obtained while participants performed modified explicit and implicit emotional go/no-go tasks. Compared to controls, depressed patients showed decreased discrimination accuracy and amplitudes of original and nogo-go difference waves at the P3 interval in response inhibition to sad faces during explicit and implicit tasks. P3 difference wave were positively correlated with discrimination accuracy and were independent of clinical assessment. The activation of right dorsal prefrontal cortex was larger for the implicit than for the explicit task in sad condition in health controls, but was similar for the two tasks in depressed patients. The present study indicated that selectively impairment in response inhibition to sad faces in depressed female patients occurred at the behavior inhibition stage across implicit and explicit tasks and may be a trait-like marker of depression. Longitudinal studies are required to determine whether decreased response inhibition to sad faces increases the risk for future depressive episodes so that appropriate treatment can be administered to patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Targets for Female Sexual Dysfunction.

PubMed

Farmer, Melissa; Yoon, Hana; Goldstein, Irwin

2016-08-01

Female sexual function reflects a dynamic interplay of central and peripheral nervous, vascular, and endocrine systems. The primary challenge in the development of novel treatments for female sexual dysfunction is the identification and targeted modulation of excitatory sexual circuits using pharmacologic treatments that facilitate the synthesis, release, and/or receptor binding of neurochemicals, peptides, and hormones that promote female sexual function. To develop an evidence-based state-of-the-art consensus report that critically integrates current knowledge of the therapeutic potential for known molecular and cellular targets to facilitate the physiologic processes underlying female sexual function. State-of-the-art review representing the opinions of international experts developed in a consensus process during a 1-year period. Expert opinion was established by grading the evidence-based medical literature, intensive internal committee discussion, public presentation, and debate. Scientific investigation is urgently needed to expand knowledge and foster development of future treatments that maintain genital tissue integrity, enhance genital physiologic responsiveness, and optimize positive subjective appraisal of internal and external sexual cues. This article critically condenses the current knowledge of therapeutic manipulation of molecular and cellular targets within biological systems responsible for female sexual physiologic function. Future treatment targets include pharmacologic modulation of emotional learning circuits, restoration of normal tactile sensation, growth factor therapy, gene therapy, stem cell-based therapies, and regenerative medicine. Concurrent use of centrally and peripherally acting therapies could optimize treatment response. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A survey of customers of space weather information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, C. J.; Rabanal, J. P.

2013-09-01

We present an analysis of the users of space weather information based on 2783 responses to an online survey among subscribers of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center e-mail services. The survey requested information focused on the three NOAA space weather scales: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. Space weather information is most commonly obtained for reasons of human safety and continuity or reliability of operations. The information is primarily used for situational awareness, as aid to understand anomalies, to avoid impacts on current and near-future operations by implementing mitigating strategies, and to prepare for potential near-future impacts that might occur in conjunction with contingencies that include electric power outages or GPS perturbations. Interest in, anticipated impacts from, and responses to the three main categories of space weather are quite uniform across societal sectors. Approximately 40% of the respondents expect serious to very serious impacts from space weather events if no action were taken to mitigate or in the absence of adequate space weather information. The impacts of space weather are deemed to be substantially reduced because of the availability of, and their response to, space weather forecasts and alerts. Current and near-future space weather conditions are generally highly valued, considered useful, and generally, though not fully, adequate to avoid or mitigate societal impacts. We conclude that even among those receiving space weather information, there is considerable uncertainty about the possible impacts of space weather and thus about how to act on the space weather information that is provided.

Inhibitors of Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte Antigen 4 and Programmed Death 1/Programmed Death 1 Ligand for Metastatic Melanoma, Dual Versus Monotherapy-Summary of Advances and Future Directions for Studying These Drugs.

PubMed

Loo, Kimberly; Daud, Adil I

Immense progress in the field of cancer immunotherapy has garnered several novel and successful treatments for metastatic melanoma. Beginning with therapies targeting cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA-4), objective response rates, overall survival, and long-term survival were significantly increased when compared with glycoprotein 100 vaccine therapies. Expanding the breadth of therapies aimed to "release the breaks" on the active immune system, anti-programmed death 1 (PD-1) and anti-programmed death 1 ligand (PD-L1) therapies further improved overall survival, progression-free survival, and objective tumor response while exhibiting more favorable safety profiles compared with ipilimumab and to chemotherapy agents. Given the power of these agents as monotherapies, a combination approach sought to combine the anti-CTLA agent ipilimumab and anti-PD-1 agent, nivolumab, to form a double-pronged attack and target several mechanisms within the active immune system. Given the promise in elevated response rates and progression-free survival, the future appears promising along the immunotherapy front. Continuing the push for progress, biomarkers to uncover the profile of responders to the various therapies will become vital in the treatment of metastatic melanoma patients. Here, we highlight the advances of CTLA-4 and PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors in the metastatic melanoma setting and discuss future directions for uncovering the full potential of these therapies.

The content of lexical stimuli and self-reported physiological state modulate error-related negativity amplitude.

PubMed

Benau, Erik M; Moelter, Stephen T

2016-09-01

The Error-Related Negativity (ERN) and Correct-Response Negativity (CRN) are brief event-related potential (ERP) components-elicited after the commission of a response-associated with motivation, emotion, and affect. The Error Positivity (Pe) typically appears after the ERN, and corresponds to awareness of having committed an error. Although motivation has long been established as an important factor in the expression and morphology of the ERN, physiological state has rarely been explored as a variable in these investigations. In the present study, we investigated whether self-reported physiological state (SRPS; wakefulness, hunger, or thirst) corresponds with ERN amplitude and type of lexical stimuli. Participants completed a SRPS questionnaire and then completed a speeded Lexical Decision Task with words and pseudowords that were either food-related or neutral. Though similar in frequency and length, food-related stimuli elicited increased accuracy, faster errors, and generated a larger ERN and smaller CRN than neutral words. Self-reported thirst correlated with improved accuracy and smaller ERN and CRN amplitudes. The Pe and Pc (correct positivity) were not impacted by physiological state or by stimulus content. The results indicate that physiological state and manipulations of lexical content may serve as important avenues for future research. Future studies that apply more sensitive measures of physiological and motivational state (e.g., biomarkers for satiety) or direct manipulations of satiety may be a useful technique for future research into response monitoring. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The epidemiological and public health research response to 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1): experiences from Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Wu, Peng; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Wu, Joseph T.; Lau, Eric H. Y.; Ip, Dennis K. M.; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

In recent years, Hong Kong has invested in research infrastructure to appropriately respond to novel infectious disease epidemics. Research from Hong Kong made a strong contribution to the international response to the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic (pH1N1). Summarizing, describing, and reviewing Hong Kong’s response to the 2009 pandemic, this article aimed to identify key elements of a real‐time research response. A systematic search in PubMed and EMBASE for research into the infection dynamics and natural history, impact, or control of pH1N1 in Hong Kong. Eligible articles were analyzed according to their scope. Fifty‐five articles were included in the review. Transmissibility of pH1N1 was similar in Hong Kong to elsewhere, and only a small fraction of infections were associated with severe disease. School closures were effective in reducing pH1N1 transmission, oseltamivir was effective for treatment of severe cases while convalescent plasma therapy has the potential to mitigate future pandemics. There was a rapid and comprehensive research response to pH1N1 in Hong Kong, providing important information on the epidemiology of the novel virus with relevance internationally as well as locally. The scientific knowledge gained through these detailed studies of pH1N1 is now being used to revise and update pandemic plans. The experiences of the research response in Hong Kong could provide a template for the research response to future emerging and reemerging disease epidemics. PMID:22883352

Summary Report for the Environmental Protection Agency MERL/FRMAC Mission Alignment Exercise held at the Environmental Protection Agency Facility on June 24-26 2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Mark B.; Shanks, Sonoya Toyoko; Fournier, Sean Donovan

From June 24th thru June 26th 2014, members of the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC), FRMAC Fly Away Laboratory, and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) participated in a joint nuclear incident emergency response/round robin exercise at the EPA facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The purpose of this exercise was to strengthen the interoperability relationship between the FRMAC Fly Away Laboratory (FAL) and the EPA Mobile Environmental Radiation Laboratory (MERL) stationed in Las Vegas, Nevada. The exercise was designed to allow for immediate delivery of pre-staged, spiked samples to the EPA MERL and the FAL for sample preparation andmore » radiological analysis. Upon completion of laboratory analysis, data was reviewed and submitted back to the FRMAC via an electronic data deliverable (EDD). In order to conduct a laboratory inter-comparison study, samples were then traded between the two laboratories and re-counted. As part of the exercise, an evaluation was conducted to identify gaps and potential areas for improvements for FRMAC, FAL and EPA operations. Additionally, noteworthy practices and potential future areas of interoperability opportunities between the FRMAC, FAL and EPA were acknowledged. The exercise also provided a unique opportunity for FRMAC personnel to observe EPA sample receipt and sample preparation processes and to gain familiarity with the MERL laboratory instrumentation and radiation detection capabilities. The areas for potential improvements and interoperability from this exercise will be critical for developing a more efficient, integrated response for future interactions between the FRMAC and EPA MERL assets.« less

Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L; Wolf, Adam; Arango-Velez, Adriana; Choat, Brendan; Chmura, Daniel J; Jansen, Steven; Kolb, Thomas; Li, Shan; Meinzer, Frederick; Pita, Pilar; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sperry, John S; Wolfe, Brett T; Pacala, Stephen

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery T., E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.a; Brown, Helen L., E-mail: h.brown@curtin.edu.a; Katscherian, Dianne, E-mail: Dianne.Katscherian@health.wa.gov.a

2011-04-15

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location.more » Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address the potential health impacts of climate change.« less

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Quantifying rates of evolutionary adaptation in response to ocean acidification.

PubMed

Sunday, Jennifer M; Crim, Ryan N; Harley, Christopher D G; Hart, Michael W

2011-01-01

The global acidification of the earth's oceans is predicted to impact biodiversity via physiological effects impacting growth, survival, reproduction, and immunology, leading to changes in species abundances and global distributions. However, the degree to which these changes will play out critically depends on the evolutionary rate at which populations will respond to natural selection imposed by ocean acidification, which remains largely unquantified. Here we measure the potential for an evolutionary response to ocean acidification in larval development rate in two coastal invertebrates using a full-factorial breeding design. We show that the sea urchin species Strongylocentrotus franciscanus has vastly greater levels of phenotypic and genetic variation for larval size in future CO(2) conditions compared to the mussel species Mytilus trossulus. Using these measures we demonstrate that S. franciscanus may have faster evolutionary responses within 50 years of the onset of predicted year-2100 CO(2) conditions despite having lower population turnover rates. Our comparisons suggest that information on genetic variation, phenotypic variation, and key demographic parameters, may lend valuable insight into relative evolutionary potentials across a large number of species.

Ultrasound induced cancer immunotherapy.

PubMed

Unga, Johan; Hashida, Mitsuru

2014-06-01

Recently, the use of ultrasound (US) has been shown to have potential in cancer immunotherapy. High intensity focused US destruction of tumors may lead to immunity forming in situ in the body by immune cells being exposed to the tumor debris and immune stimulatory substances that are present in the tumor remains. Another way of achieving anti-cancer immune responses is by using US in combination with microbubbles and nanobubbles to deliver genes and antigens into cells. US leads to bubble destruction and the forces released to direct delivery of the substances into the cytoplasm of the cells thus circumventing the natural barriers. In this way tumor antigens and antigen-encoding genes can be delivered to immune cells and immune response stimulating genes can be delivered to cancer cells thus enhancing immune responses. Combination of bubbles with cell-targeting ligands and US provides an even more sophisticated delivery system whereby the therapy is not only site specific but also cell specific. In this review we describe how US has been used to achieve immunity and discuss the potential and possible obstacles in future development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed Central

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-01-01

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC. PMID:26420960

Mesoporous silica nanoparticles as antigen carriers and adjuvants for vaccine delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mody, Karishma T.; Popat, Amirali; Mahony, Donna; Cavallaro, Antonino S.; Yu, Chengzhong; Mitter, Neena

2013-05-01

Vaccines have been at the forefront of improving human health for over two centuries. The challenges faced in developing effective vaccines flow from complexities associated with the immune system and requirement of an efficient and safe adjuvant to induce a strong adaptive immune response. Development of an efficient vaccine formulation requires careful selection of a potent antigen, efficient adjuvant and route of delivery. Adjuvants are immunological agents that activate the antigen presenting cells (APCs) and elicit a strong immune response. In the past decade, the use of mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSNs) has gained significant attention as potential delivery vehicles for various biomolecules. In this review, we aim to highlight the potential of MSNs as vaccine delivery vehicles and their ability to act as adjuvants. We have provided an overview on the latest progress on synthesis, adsorption and release kinetics and biocompatibility of MSNs as next generation antigen carriers and adjuvants. A comprehensive summary on the ability of MSNs to deliver antigens and elicit both humoral and cellular immune responses is provided. Finally, we give insight on fundamental challenges and some future prospects of these nanoparticles as adjuvants.

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

PubMed

Shao, Yu-Yun; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Cheng, Ann-Lii

2015-09-28

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC.

Vestibular Evoked Myogenic Potentials in Normal Mice and Phex Mice With Spontaneous Endolymphatic Hydrops

PubMed Central

Sheykholeslami, Kianoush; Megerian, Cliff A.; Zheng, Qing Y.

2010-01-01

Objective and Background Vestibular evoked myogenic potentials (VEMPs) have been recorded from the neck musculature and the cervical spinal cord in humans and a limited number of laboratory animals in response to loud sound. However, the mouse VEMP has yet to be described. Evaluation of the sacculocollic pathway via VEMPs in mice can set the stage for future evaluations of mutant mice that now play an important role in research regarding human auditory and vestibular dysfunction. Materials and Methods Sound-evoked potentials were recorded from the neck extensor muscles and the cervical spinal cord in normal adult mice and in circling PhexHyp-Duk/y mice with known vestibular abnormalities, including endolymphatic hydrops (ELH). Results Biphasic potentials were recorded from all normal animals. The mean threshold of the VEMP response in normal adult mice was 60 dB normal hearing level with a mean peak latency of 6.25 ± 0.46 and 7.95 ± 0.42 milliseconds for p1 and n1 peaks, respectively. At the maximum sound intensity used (100 dB normal hearing level), 4 of 5 Phex mice did not exhibit VEMP responses, and 1 showed an elevated threshold, but normal response, with regard to peak latency and amplitude. The histologic findings in all of these Phex mice were consistent with distended membranous labyrinth, displaced Reissner membrane, ganglion cell loss, and ELH. Conclusion This is the first report of VEMP recordings in mice and the first report of abnormal VEMPs in a mouse model with ELH. The characteristics of these potentials such as higher response threshold in comparison to auditory brainstem response, myogenic nature of the response, and latency correlation with the cervical recording (accessory nerve nucleus) were similar to those of VEMPs in humans, guinea pigs, cats, and rats, suggesting that the mouse may be used as an animal model in the study of VEMPs. The simplicity and reliability of these recordings make the VEMP a uniquely informative test for assessing vestibular function, and these results suggest that they may be informative in mice with various mutations. However, further investigation is necessary. PMID:19300299

Digging into construction: social networks and their potential impact on knowledge transfer.

PubMed

Carlan, N A; Kramer, D M; Bigelow, P; Wells, R; Garritano, E; Vi, P

2012-01-01

A six-year study is exploring the most effective ways to disseminate ideas to reduce musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in the construction sector. The sector was targeted because MSDs account for 35% of all lost time injuries. This paper reports on the organization of the construction sector, and maps potential pathways of communication, including social networks, to set the stage for future dissemination. The managers, health and safety specialists, union health and safety representatives, and 28 workers from small, medium and large construction companies participated. Over a three-year period, data were collected from 47 qualitative interviews. Questions were guided by the PARIHS (Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services) knowledge-transfer conceptual framework and adapted for the construction sector. The construction sector is a complex and dynamic sector, with non-linear reporting relationships, and divided and diluted responsibilities. Four networks were identified that can potentially facilitate the dissemination of new knowledge: worksite-project networks; union networks; apprenticeship program networks; and networks established by the Construction Safety Association/Infrastructure Health and Safety Association. Flexible and multi-directional lines of communication must be used in this complex environment. This has implications for the future choice of knowledge transfer strategies.

Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change.

PubMed

Semenov, M A; Stratonovitch, P; Alghabari, F; Gooding, M J

2014-05-01

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

The enemy within us: lessons from the 2011 European Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak.

PubMed

Karch, Helge; Denamur, Erick; Dobrindt, Ulrich; Finlay, B Brett; Hengge, Regine; Johannes, Ludgers; Ron, Eliora Z; Tønjum, Tone; Sansonetti, Philippe J; Vicente, Miguel

2012-09-01

In response to the 2011 European health alert caused by a pathogenic Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak, the European Academy of Microbiology (EAM), established by the Federation of European Microbiological Societies (FEMS), convened a meeting in Paris on November 30th, 2011 on 'EHEC infection and control' attended by world renowned experts in pathogenic E. coli. The major aims of this group were to review the scientific issues raised by the outbreak, to assess the handling of the crisis at the scientific and political levels, and to propose future actions. Several conclusions, which will have impact on future potential E. coli outbreaks, are outlined here. Copyright © 2012 EMBO Molecular Medicine.

Protease Inhibitors of Parasitic Flukes: Emerging Roles in Parasite Survival and Immune Defence.

PubMed

Ranasinghe, Shiwanthi L; McManus, Donald P

2017-05-01

Protease inhibitors play crucial roles in parasite development and survival, counteracting the potentially damaging immune responses of their vertebrate hosts. However, limited information is currently available on protease inhibitors from schistosomes and food-borne trematodes. Future characterization of these molecules is important not only to expand knowledge on parasitic fluke biology but also to determine whether they represent novel vaccine and/or drug targets. Moreover, protease inhibitors from flukes may represent lead compounds for the development of a new range of therapeutic agents against inflammatory disorders and cancer. This review discusses already identified protease inhibitors of fluke origin, emphasizing their biological function and their possible future development as new intervention targets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subliminal Priming-State of the Art and Future Perspectives.

PubMed

Elgendi, Mohamed; Kumar, Parmod; Barbic, Skye; Howard, Newton; Abbott, Derek; Cichocki, Andrzej

2018-05-30

The influence of subliminal priming (behavior outside of awareness) in humans is an interesting phenomenon and its understanding is crucial as it can impact behavior, choices, and actions. Given this, research about the impact of priming continues to be an area of investigative interest, and this paper provides a technical overview of research design strengths and issues in subliminal priming research. Efficient experiments and protocols, as well as associated electroencephalographic and eye movement data analyses, are discussed in detail. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of different priming experiments that have measured affective (emotional) and cognitive responses. Finally, very recent approaches and findings are described to summarize and emphasize state-of-the-art methods and potential future directions in research marketing and other commercial applications.

Silicon-Germanium Fast Packet Switch Developed for Communications Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quintana, Jorge A.

1999-01-01

Emerging multimedia applications and future satellite systems will require high-speed switching networks to accommodate high data-rate traffic among thousands of potential users. This will require advanced switching devices to enable communication between satellites. The NASA Lewis Research Center has been working closely with industry to develop a state-of-the-art fast packet switch (FPS) to fulfill this requirement. Recently, the Satellite Industry Task Force identified the need for high-capacity onboard processing switching components as one of the "grand challenges" for the satellite industry in the 21st century. In response to this challenge, future generations of onboard processing satellites will require low power and low mass components to enable transmission of services in the 100 gigabit (1011 bits) per second (Gbps) range.

Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall B; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Dykema, John A; Lobell, David B

2009-12-08

Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.

Measurement and validation of benchmark-quality thick-target tungsten X-ray spectra below 150 kVp.

PubMed

Mercier, J R; Kopp, D T; McDavid, W D; Dove, S B; Lancaster, J L; Tucker, D M

2000-11-01

Pulse-height distributions of two constant potential X-ray tubes with fixed anode tungsten targets were measured and unfolded. The measurements employed quantitative alignment of the beam, the use of two different semiconductor detectors (high-purity germanium and cadmium-zinc-telluride), two different ion chamber systems with beam-specific calibration factors, and various filter and tube potential combinations. Monte Carlo response matrices were generated for each detector for unfolding the pulse-height distributions into spectra incident on the detectors. These response matrices were validated for the low error bars assigned to the data. A significant aspect of the validation of spectra, and a detailed characterization of the X-ray tubes, involved measuring filtered and unfiltered beams at multiple tube potentials (30-150 kVp). Full corrections to ion chamber readings were employed to convert normalized fluence spectra into absolute fluence spectra. The characterization of fixed anode pitting and its dominance over exit window plating and/or detector dead layer was determined. An Appendix of tabulated benchmark spectra with assigned error ranges was developed for future reference.

Ocean acidification at high latitudes: potential effects on functioning of the Antarctic bivalve Laternula elliptica.

PubMed

Cummings, Vonda; Hewitt, Judi; Van Rooyen, Anthony; Currie, Kim; Beard, Samuel; Thrush, Simon; Norkko, Joanna; Barr, Neill; Heath, Philip; Halliday, N Jane; Sedcole, Richard; Gomez, Antony; McGraw, Christina; Metcalf, Victoria

2011-01-05

Ocean acidification is a well recognised threat to marine ecosystems. High latitude regions are predicted to be particularly affected due to cold waters and naturally low carbonate saturation levels. This is of concern for organisms utilising calcium carbonate (CaCO(3)) to generate shells or skeletons. Studies of potential effects of future levels of pCO(2) on high latitude calcifiers are at present limited, and there is little understanding of their potential to acclimate to these changes. We describe a laboratory experiment to compare physiological and metabolic responses of a key benthic bivalve, Laternula elliptica, at pCO(2) levels of their natural environment (430 µatm, pH 7.99; based on field measurements) with those predicted for 2100 (735 µatm, pH 7.78) and glacial levels (187 µatm, pH 8.32). Adult L. elliptica basal metabolism (oxygen consumption rates) and heat shock protein HSP70 gene expression levels increased in response both to lowering and elevation of pH. Expression of chitin synthase (CHS), a key enzyme involved in synthesis of bivalve shells, was significantly up-regulated in individuals at pH 7.78, indicating L. elliptica were working harder to calcify in seawater undersaturated in aragonite (Ω(Ar) = 0.71), the CaCO(3) polymorph of which their shells are comprised. The different response variables were influenced by pH in differing ways, highlighting the importance of assessing a variety of factors to determine the likely impact of pH change. In combination, the results indicate a negative effect of ocean acidification on whole-organism functioning of L. elliptica over relatively short terms (weeks-months) that may be energetically difficult to maintain over longer time periods. Importantly, however, the observed changes in L. elliptica CHS gene expression provides evidence for biological control over the shell formation process, which may enable some degree of adaptation or acclimation to future ocean acidification scenarios.

Feeling Closer to the Future Self and Doing Better: Temporal Psychological Mechanisms Underlying Academic Performance.

PubMed

Adelman, Robert Mark; Herrmann, Sarah D; Bodford, Jessica E; Barbour, Joseph E; Graudejus, Oliver; Okun, Morris A; Kwan, Virginia S Y

2017-06-01

This research examined the function of future self-continuity and its potential downstream consequences for academic performance through relations with other temporal psychological factors and self-control. We also addressed the influence of cultural factors by testing whether these relations differed by college generation status. Undergraduate students enrolled at a large public university participated in two studies (Study 1: N = 119, M age  = 20.55, 56.4% women; Study 2: N = 403, M age  = 19.83, 58.3% women) in which they completed measures of temporal psychological factors and psychological resources. In Study 2, we also obtained academic records to link responses to academic performance. Future self-continuity predicted subsequent academic performance and was related positively to future focus, negatively to present focus, and positively to self-control. Additionally, the relation between future focus and self-control was stronger for continuing-generation college students than first-generation college students. Future self-continuity plays a pivotal role in academic contexts. Findings suggest that it may have positive downstream consequences on academic achievement by directing attention away from the present and toward the future, which promotes self-control. Further, the strategy of focusing on the future may be effective in promoting self-control only for certain cultural groups. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term Ecosystem Experiments, Data Assimilation, and Meta-Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hungate, B. A.; Van Groenigen, K. J.; Osenberg, C. W.; van Gestel, N.

2015-12-01

Land ecosystems affect climate and the atmosphere, and climate and atmospheric change affects ecosystems. Syntheses of ecosystem experiments investigating their responses to environmental change holds promise for understanding how to model these interactions, and thereby gain insight into Earth's future biosphere, atmosphere, and climate. Long-term experiments examining ecosystem responses are thought to be especially important in this effort, for their potential to reveal cumulative and progressive effects, subtle effects initially undetectable experimentally, but manifest more clearly over time, often with stronger implications for modeled responses than the more dramatic, short-term experimental responses. Here, we present new analyses of long-term experiments manipulating temperature, CO2 concentration, and precipitation, testing the general hypothesis that there are common temporal patterns of responses that reveal general biogeochemical characterizing ecosystem responses to these environmental changes. For example, we show that increased carbon input with elevated CO2 stimulates emissions of nitrous oxide and methane, important greenhouse gases, and that effects show no signs of diminishing over the duration of experiments that have documented responses. At the same time, we show that the temporal resolution for this response is limited, pointing to a potential limitation in the ability of experiments to address clearly long-term hypotheses. We also show that warming tends to have limited cumulative effects on total soil carbon stocks in long-term experiments, and explore the mechanisms underlying this response. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for models used to simulate long-term ecosystem responses to these environmental forcings, as well as the implications of these findings for the next generation of terrestrial ecosystem experiments.

Comparing Past and Future Elevational vs. Latitudinal Migrations in Mountains of the Western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, K. L.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N.

2009-12-01

During the early Holocene, plant species of the western United States responded to the warming post-glacial temperatures by migrating to higher elevations and to more northerly latitudes. Models of species response to warmer climates assume similar processes will occur in the future but the rates and extent of these future migrations are unknown. Hypothetically, the rates of elevational and latitudinal migrations should differ depending upon the importance of spatial distance in determining the resulting migration rate. The diverse topography of the western United States presents an ideal laboratory for comparing these past elevational vs. latitudinal species movements. Abundant fossil records allow comparisons between these rates following rapidly warming periods in the past such as occurred in the early Holocene. At that time, species often equilibrated to the new temperature regime rapidly where they were only required to migrate a short distance uphill. But the same species required many thousands of years to subsequently approach their northern latitudinal boundaries. Further, the upper limits and lower limits for a species often did not move synchronously, yielding additional information on the dynamics of response to rapid warming for that particular species. We calibrated the available temperature space for several dominant forest tree species of the mountains of the interior western U.S. and then calculated their early Holocene rates of migration relative to geographic space. Next we were able to compare these estimations to the observations of each species recent historical autecological response to disturbances. For many species their paleoecological rates of change were consistent with observations of their dynamics over the last century. A few species, such as the wind dispersed Populus tremuloides, re-populate disturbed areas so rapidly that they have no discernable migration delay. Other species, such as Pinus ponderosa, can expand rapidly at a rate approximating 250 to 500 m/year. But even at such a rapid rate, they would only be able to expand a total of 45 km by the end of this century. And, because of their maturation time, this could constitute only three generations. Lastly, many species of interior semi-arid regions, such as Pseudotsuga menziesii and Pinus edulis, expand at rates of less than 100 m/yr. Finally, we applied calculated migration rates to modeled areas of future potential climate for each species. We generated these areas of future potential distribution using a selection of AR4 GCMs that were applied to species-specific climate models developed from late Twentieth Century correlations between climate and species ranges. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of these migration rates greatly change the distributions that could be expected over the next 500 years. The effect of such migration rates have not been considered in models of future carbon balance, yet their history suggests that their importance may outweigh many other variables. Models incorporating migration should be even more important in the projection of future distributions of boreal species across expansive Arctic regions.

Qubit-Based Memcapacitors and Meminductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchenko, Sergey N.; Pershin, Yuriy V.; Nori, Franco

2016-07-01

It is shown that superconducting charge and flux quantum bits (qubits) can be classified as memory capacitive and inductive systems, respectively. We demonstrate that such memcapacitive and meminductive devices offer remarkable and rich response functionalities. In particular, when subjected to periodic input, qubit-based memcapacitors and meminductors exhibit unusual hysteresis curves. Our work not only extends the set of known memcapacitive and meminductive systems to qubit-based devices, but also highlights their unique properties potentially useful for future technological applications.

Myeloid-Derived Suppressor Cells in Bacterial Infections

PubMed Central

Ost, Michael; Singh, Anurag; Peschel, Andreas; Mehling, Roman; Rieber, Nikolaus; Hartl, Dominik

2016-01-01

Myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) comprise monocytic and granulocytic innate immune cells with the capability of suppressing T- and NK-cell responses. While the role of MDSCs has been studied in depth in malignant diseases, the understanding of their regulation and function in infectious disease conditions has just begun to evolve. Here we summarize and discuss the current view how MDSCs participate in bacterial infections and how this knowledge could be exploited for potential future therapeutics. PMID:27066459

An introduction to global carbon cycle management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundquist, Eric T.; Ackerman, Katherine V.; Parker, Lauren; Huntzinger, Deborah N.

2009-01-01

Past and current human activities have fundamentally altered the global carbon cycle. Potential future efforts to control atmospheric CO2 will also involve significant changes in the global carbon cycle. Carbon cycle scientists and engineers now face not only the difficulties of recording and understanding past and present changes but also the challenge of providing information and tools for new management strategies that are responsive to societal needs. The challenge is nothing less than managing the global carbon cycle.

Vehicle Technologies Office FY 2017 Budget At-A-Glance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-03-01

Transportation accounts for two-thirds of U.S. petroleum use, and on-road vehicles are responsible for nearly 85% of this amount. U.S. dependence on petroleum affects the national economy and potential for future growth—making it a high-value opportunity for change. The Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) develops and overcomes barriers to the widespread use of advanced highway transportation technologies that reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, while meeting or exceeding vehicle performance expectations.

Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.

PubMed

Pholkern, Kewaree; Saraphirom, Phayom; Srisuk, Kriengsak

2018-08-15

The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Through a glass darkly: economics and personalised medicine.

PubMed

Haycox, Alan; Pirmohamed, Munir; McLeod, Claire; Houten, Rachel; Richards, Sarah

2014-11-01

Personalised medicine and pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategies will be of increasing importance in the future, both in terms of healthcare provision and evaluation. It is well recognised that significant variability exists in the response of patients to drugs resulting from genetic or biological variations; however, we are only now gradually becoming aware of the complexities involved. Enormous variability occurs in the risk-benefit ratio that will be experienced by each individual patient as a consequence of their overall genetic make-up. Although not a panacea, enhanced scientific knowledge of the genetic basis for such variability offers the potential for a more 'tailored' approach to prescribing in the future, making it more closely attuned to the needs of the individual patient. Such 'personalised' medicine has the potential to revolutionise care provision in a manner that provides a range of challenges to current structures and processes of 'conventional' healthcare delivery. The aim of this paper is to outline such challenges and analyse potential ways in which they may be addressed in the future. It provides non-expert readers with a non-technical case study of the complexities inherent in the evaluation of a pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategy from a health economic perspective. Wherever possible, technical issues have been minimised; however, references are provided for readers who wish to enhance their knowledge of the pharmacological basis of the case study of cytochrome P450 test-guided treatment. The case study aims simply to illustrate the approach and difficulties encountered in the health economic evaluation of complex pharmacogenetic technologies. Such technologies present a range of new and complex issues which have crucial implications for health economists attempting to obtain an accurate assessment of the 'value' of the technology in clinical practice in an array of patient subgroups. Personalised medicine is the future and this paper highlights how pharmaceutical manufacturers, clinicians, regulators and other stakeholders must all play their part in the inevitable and accelerating move into this complex and uncertain future.

Ocean acidification impacts on sperm mitochondrial membrane potential bring sperm swimming behaviour near its tipping point.

PubMed

Schlegel, Peter; Binet, Monique T; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Doyle, Christopher J; Williamson, Jane E

2015-04-01

Broadcast spawning marine invertebrates are susceptible to environmental stressors such as climate change, as their reproduction depends on the successful meeting and fertilization of gametes in the water column. Under near-future scenarios of ocean acidification, the swimming behaviour of marine invertebrate sperm is altered. We tested whether this was due to changes in sperm mitochondrial activity by investigating the effects of ocean acidification on sperm metabolism and swimming behaviour in the sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii. We used a fluorescent molecular probe (JC-1) and flow cytometry to visualize mitochondrial activity (measured as change in mitochondrial membrane potential, MMP). Sperm MMP was significantly reduced in ΔpH -0.3 (35% reduction) and ΔpH -0.5 (48% reduction) treatments, whereas sperm swimming behaviour was less sensitive with only slight changes (up to 11% decrease) observed overall. There was significant inter-individual variability in responses of sperm swimming behaviour and MMP to acidified seawater. We suggest it is likely that sperm exposed to these changes in pH are close to their tipping point in terms of physiological tolerance to acidity. Importantly, substantial inter-individual variation in responses of sperm swimming to ocean acidification may increase the scope for selection of resilient phenotypes, which, if heritable, could provide a basis for adaptation to future ocean acidification. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Increase in Agulhas leakage due to poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere westerlies.

PubMed

Biastoch, A; Böning, C W; Schwarzkopf, F U; Lutjeharms, J R E

2009-11-26

The transport of warm and salty Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic Ocean-the Agulhas leakage-has a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and thus the evolution of future climate. At present these waters provide the main source of heat and salt for the surface branch of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). There is evidence from past glacial-to-interglacial variations in foraminiferal assemblages and model studies that the amount of Agulhas leakage and its corresponding effect on the MOC has been subject to substantial change, potentially linked to latitudinal shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. A progressive poleward migration of the westerlies has been observed during the past two to three decades and linked to anthropogenic forcing, but because of the sparse observational records it has not been possible to determine whether there has been a concomitant response of Agulhas leakage. Here we present the results of a high-resolution ocean general circulation model to show that the transport of Indian Ocean waters into the South Atlantic via the Agulhas leakage has increased during the past decades in response to the change in wind forcing. The increased leakage has contributed to the observed salinification of South Atlantic thermocline waters. Both model and historic measurements off South America suggest that the additional Indian Ocean waters have begun to invade the North Atlantic, with potential implications for the future evolution of the MOC.

The Development of a Real Time Surface Water Flow Model to Protect Public Water Intakes in West Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegre, N.; Strager, M.

2015-12-01

In January of 2014 West Virginia experienced a chemical spill upstream of a public water intake on the Elk River near Charleston, West Virginia that made the water unusable for 300,000 people for weeks. In response to this disaster, state officials enacted legislation to protect the future public water intake locations by requiring the delineation of zones of critical concern that extend a five hour travel time above the intakes. Each zone is defined by the travel time and buffered along the river mainstem and tributary locations to identify future potential threats to the water supply. While this approach helps to identify potential problems before they occur, the need existed to be able to respond to a spill with information regarding the real travel time of a spill to an intake with consideration of actual stream flow at the time of the spill. This study developed a real time surface flow model to protect the public water intakes using both regional and seasonal variables. Bayesian statistical inference enabled confidence levels to be placed on flow estimates and used to show the probability for the time steps as water approached an public water intake. The flow model has been incorporated into both a smartphone app and web-based tool for better emergency response and management of water resources throughout the state.

Traumatogenic Processes and Pathways to Mental Health Outcomes for Sexual Minorities Exposed to Bias Crime Information.

PubMed

Lannert, Brittany K

2015-07-01

Vicarious traumatization of nonvictim members of communities targeted by bias crimes has been suggested by previous qualitative studies and often dominates public discussion following bias events, but proximal and distal responses of community members have yet to be comprehensively modeled, and quantitative research on vicarious responses is scarce. This comprehensive review integrates theoretical and empirical literatures in social, clinical, and physiological psychology in the development of a model of affective, cognitive, and physiological responses of lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals upon exposure to information about bias crimes. Extant qualitative research in vicarious response to bias crimes is reviewed in light of theoretical implications and methodological limitations. Potential pathways to mental health outcomes are outlined, including accumulative effects of anticipatory defensive responding, multiplicative effects of minority stress, and putative traumatogenic physiological and cognitive processes of threat. Methodological considerations, future research directions, and clinical implications are also discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

New trends of short-term humanitarian medical volunteerism: professional and ethical considerations.

PubMed

Asgary, Ramin; Junck, Emily

2013-10-01

Short-term humanitarian medical volunteerism has grown significantly among both clinicians and trainees over the past several years. Increasingly, both volunteers and their respective institutions have faced important challenges in regard to medical ethics and professional codes that should not be overlooked. We explore these potential concerns and their risk factors in three categories: ethical responsibilities in patient care, professional responsibility to communities and populations, and institutional responsibilities towards trainees. We discuss factors increasing the risk of harm to patients and communities, including inadequate preparation, the use of advanced technology and the translation of Western medicine, issues with clinical epidemiology and test utility, difficulties with the principles of justice and clinical justice, the lack of population-based medicine, sociopolitical effects of foreign aid, volunteer stress management, and need for sufficient trainee supervision. We review existing resources and offer suggestions for future skill-based training, organisational responsibilities, and ethical preparation.

30,000 years of hydroclimatic variability in the coastal southwest United States: regional synthesis and forcings analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, M. E.

2015-12-01

The coastal southwest United States is characterized by a winter dominated hydroclimate. Far from dependable, this region's supply of winter precipitation is highly variable and often characterized by hydrologic opposites - droughts and floods. Predicting future precipitation and hydrologic dynamics requires a paleoperspective. Here, we present an up-to-date synthesis of hydroclimatic variability over the past 30,000 years. A variety of terrestrial-based studies are examined and compared to understand patterns of regional hydroclimatic change. This comparison is extended into the San Joaquin Basin of California where future climate change will impact the region's agricultural stability and economy. Particularly interesting is the apparent role that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play in modulating the region's hydroclimate over a variety of timescales. Are past periods of above average Pacific SSTs analogs for future global warming? If yes, the region might expect an increase in winter precipitation as SSTs rise in response to global warming. However, how this potential precipitation increase is manifest is unknown. For example, will the intensity of precipitation events increase and thus present increased flood hazards and diminished freshwater capture? Finally, we present evidence for changes in the source of winter precipitation over time as well as ecological responses to past hydrologic change.

Gender differences in binaural speech-evoked auditory brainstem response: are they clinically significant?

PubMed

Jalaei, Bahram; Azmi, Mohd Hafiz Afifi Mohd; Zakaria, Mohd Normani

2018-05-17

Binaurally evoked auditory evoked potentials have good diagnostic values when testing subjects with central auditory deficits. The literature on speech-evoked auditory brainstem response evoked by binaural stimulation is in fact limited. Gender disparities in speech-evoked auditory brainstem response results have been consistently noted but the magnitude of gender difference has not been reported. The present study aimed to compare the magnitude of gender difference in speech-evoked auditory brainstem response results between monaural and binaural stimulations. A total of 34 healthy Asian adults aged 19-30 years participated in this comparative study. Eighteen of them were females (mean age=23.6±2.3 years) and the remaining sixteen were males (mean age=22.0±2.3 years). For each subject, speech-evoked auditory brainstem response was recorded with the synthesized syllable /da/ presented monaurally and binaurally. While latencies were not affected (p>0.05), the binaural stimulation produced statistically higher speech-evoked auditory brainstem response amplitudes than the monaural stimulation (p<0.05). As revealed by large effect sizes (d>0.80), substantive gender differences were noted in most of speech-evoked auditory brainstem response peaks for both stimulation modes. The magnitude of gender difference between the two stimulation modes revealed some distinct patterns. Based on these clinically significant results, gender-specific normative data are highly recommended when using speech-evoked auditory brainstem response for clinical and future applications. The preliminary normative data provided in the present study can serve as the reference for future studies on this test among Asian adults. Copyright © 2018 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

2017-09-01

Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and thus, warming and acidification in parallel may prevent polyp populations from acclimating to future ocean conditions.

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... RESPONSIBILITY ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member... well as the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final...

Ensembles of 21st Century Colorado River Flow Projections Exhibit Substantial Diversity in Response to Seasonal Hydroclimatic Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; Woodhouse, C. A.; McCabe, G. J., Jr.; Pederson, G. T.

2016-12-01

Approximately 40 million people depend on the Colorado River, and that number is likely to grow in the future, making the River's response to projected increases in temperature and possible changes in precipitation a critical societal issue. By far the most common way of approaching the problem is synthesize results obtained by forcing a hydrological model with a set of downscaled future climate scenarios. One weakness with this type of analysis is that full hydrologic model simulations can be computationally demanding, and so the number of potential climate futures is generally somewhat limited. Here we sidestep that issue by using a very large set of synthetic climate futures to drive a simple statistical model of water year flow at Lees Ferry. 62,500 climate series, comprising 500 iterations of 125 unique combinations of summer temperature changes ranging from 0 to +4°C and summer and winter precipitation changes ranging from -20 to +20% were input into the flow model. Without substantial temperature increases, significant increases in the occurrence of very low flows (<75%) were unlikely, even with sharp decreases in temperature. Conversely, increases in precipitation, could buffer the effect of summer temperature increases up to about 3°C on mean water year flows. While very simple models like this one are inappropriate for some questions, they do provide an effective way of prioritizing and framing more complex investigations, and facilitate conversations with stakeholders about research directions.

Potential future scenarios for Australia's native biodiversity given on-going increases in human population.

PubMed

Pepper, D A; Lada, Hania; Thomson, James R; Bakar, K Shuvo; Lake, P S; Mac Nally, Ralph

2017-01-15

Most natural assets, including native biodiversity (our focus), are under increasing threat from direct (loss of habitat, hunting) and indirect (climate change) human actions. Most human impacts arise from increasing human populations coupled with rises in per capita resource use. The rates of change of human actions generally outpace those to which the biota can respond or adapt. If we are to maintain native biodiversity, then we must develop ways to envisage how the biota may be affected over the next several decades to guide management and policy responses. We consider the future for Australia's native biodiversity in the context of two assumptions. First, the human population in Australia will be 40million by 2050, which has been mooted by federal government agencies. Second, greenhouse gas emissions will track the highest rates considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scenarios are based on major drivers of change, which were constructed from seven key drivers of change pertinent to native biodiversity. Five scenarios deal with differing distributions of the human population driven by uncertainties in climate change and in the human responses to climate change. Other scenarios are governed largely by global change and explore different rates of resource use, unprecedented rates of technological change, capabilities and societal values. A narrative for each scenario is provided. The set of scenarios spans a wide range of possible future paths for Australia, with different implications for the future of native biodiversity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Violence and psychological distress among police officers and security guards.

PubMed

Leino, T M; Selin, R; Summala, H; Virtanen, M

2011-09-01

Police officers and security guards are more exposed to violence during their work duties than the general workforce and it can damage their psychological health. Still research on specific forms of violence and a potential pathway through which violence may affect distress is scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of two forms of violence with distress among police officers and security guards and whether personal worry about future violence mediates this association. Violence was specified as physically violent acts and threats or assaults with a deadly weapon. Symptoms of psychological distress were measured using the General Health Questionnaire-12 scale. Analyses of 1993 completed responses (response rate 58%) showed that the odds ratio of distress for 'physically violent acts was' 1.67 (95% CI = 1.11-2.51) and for 'threats or assaults with a deadly weapon' 1.62 (95% CI = 1.20-2.17). When personal worry about future violence was taken into account, the association between exposure to physically violent acts and distress was completely broken. Instead, with the same adjustment, the association between exposure to threats or assaults with a deadly weapon and distress held. The results indicate that the association between physically violent acts and distress is mediated by personal worry about future violence, while threats or assaults with a deadly weapon had a stronger and independent association with distress. It is concluded that there is association between violence and distress. Personal worry about future violence mediates this association.

Streamflow response to future land-cover change at a headwaters catchment spanning the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, T. B.; Vukomanovic, J.; Bourgeron, P.; Molotch, N. P.

2017-12-01

Land-cover change at the alpine-subalpine interface has the potential to change the water balance of mountainous, snow-dominated catchments due to the influence of vegetation on blowing snow, effective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and other processes. Understanding how land-cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce a disproportionate amount of runoff relative to their land area. We coupled the LANdscape DIsturbance and Succession (LANDIS-II) model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), to simulate land-cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 6.6 km­2 headwater catchment that spans the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures of air temperature warming (+4 °C/century) to 2100: a) increased precipitation (+15%, MP) and b) decreased precipitation (-15%, LP). As the LANDIS-II model simulates forest succession in a stochastic manner, we use three LANDIS-II model runs each for the MP and LP future forcing conditions. For both MP and LP, the RHESSys forcing data set was updated to reflect the changes in precipitation and temperature used to generate the land-cover futures. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Somewhat surprisingly, this increase in forest cover led to mean increases in streamflow production of 9% for MP and 3% for LP in 2050. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 15% and 6% for the MP and LP scenarios, respectively. This is likely due to increases in effective precipitation as the catchment forested and blowing snow decreased. Indeed, catchment effective precipitation increased from 94% in 2000 to 97% and 99% in 2050 and 2100, respectively, for both MP and LP conditions. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on blowing snow and effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land-cover change is of critical importance due to the potential water resources impacts in downstream regions.

Modeling Holocene Barrier Island Morphodynamics and Potential Future Response to Sea- Level Rise, Outer Banks, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, L. J.; List, J. H.; Williams, S. J.; Stolper, D.

2006-12-01

A morphological-behavior model, GEOMBEST, which simulates the evolution of coastal morphology and stratigraphy resulting from changes in sea level and sediment supply provides insight into how barriers evolve over time scales ranging from decades to millenia. The model is based upon behavior rules originating from "Bruun rule" concepts, with additional parameters to allow simulation of more complex real-world scenarios. Morphological evolution in the model is driven by disequilibrium between the shoreface and a user-specified theoretical equilibrium profile that maintains its vertical position relative to sea level. As sea level continues rising to an estimated 48 cm above current MSL by AD 2100 (IPCC 2001) and hurricanes of potentially greater intensity impact the coast, barrier islands will respond either by transgressing across underlying strata or by disintegrating and ultimately submerging. Recent studies suggest that some barriers along the U.S. East Coast will break up and become submerged within decades. Other studies show that barriers in Louisiana have already submerged while others are in the process of narrowing in place and submerging. Several factors determine barrier island response to sea-level rise. These include initial topography and morphology of the barrier, underlying geologic framework, availability and supply of sediment, rate of sea-level rise, frequency and intensity of coastal storms, and anthropogenic modifications to the coast. Sensitivity analyses conducted in GEOMBEST suggest that of these factors, barrier-island response is most sensitive to the rate of sea-level rise. The Holocene evolution of the Outer Banks and potential future responses to sea-level rise are explored for a 25-km stretch of coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC using GEOMBEST. An 8500-year hindcast simulation for the study area reproduces closely the morphology and stratigraphy of the modern barrier with approximately 5 x 109 m3 excavated from the Pleistocene substrate, liberating a volume of material sufficient to construct Diamond Shoals. This hindcast simulation serves as the basis for forward simulations of potential future barrier island evolution. A series of model runs based on the low- (0.09 m), mid- (0.48 m) and upper- (0.88 m) range of IPCC (2001) estimates for sea-level rise by the year 2100, suggest the barrier would migrate at rates of approximately 2, 6 and 10 m/yr, respectively. The latter two results would represent an increase over modern long-term erosion rates in the study area, which serve as a proxy for migration rates. Model simulations of barrier response to 4 and 6 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100 (Overpeck et al., 2006), result in model-generated migration rates of 43 and 68 m/yr, respectively. These rates far exceed the highest average long-term barrier island erosion rates observed today along the Louisiana Coast where the Chandeleur Islands disintegrated in response to Hurricane Katrina. If observations in Louisiana can be applied to barrier islands in North Carolina, then we can expect the Outer Banks to become vulnerable to disintegration when migration rates reach approximately 15-20 m/yr. The five forward simulations for the study area suggest rates in this range may be achieved in the Outer Banks if sea-level rise by AD 2100 exceeds IPCC (2001) estimates.

Light induced intraspecific variability in response to thermal stress in the hard coral Stylophora pistillata

PubMed Central

Wijgerde, Tim; Dini-Andreote, Francisco; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Salles, Joana Falcão; Pen, Ido; Wild, Christian

2017-01-01

Recent research suggests that prior exposure of several months to elevated irradiance induces enhanced thermal tolerance in scleractinian corals. While this tolerance has been reported at the species level, individual coral colonies may react differently due to individual variability in thermal tolerance. As thermal anomalies are predicted to become common in the upcoming future, intraspecific variation may be key to the survival of coral populations. In order to study light-history based thermal stress responses on individual colonies, we developed a preliminary microcosm experiment where three randomly chosen, aquacultured colonies of the model coral Stylophora pistillata were exposed to two irradiance treatments (200 and 400 μmol photons m−2 s−1) for 31 days, followed by artificially induced heat stress (∼33.4 °C). We found different responses to occur at both the intraspecific and the intracolonial levels, as indicated by either equal, less severe, delayed, and/or even non-necrotic responses of corals previously exposed to the irradiance of 400 compared to 200 μmol photons m−2 s−1. In addition, all individual colonies revealed light-enhanced calcification. Finally, elevated irradiance resulted in a lower chlorophyll a concentration in one colony compared to the control treatment, and the same colony displayed more rapid bleaching compared to the other ones. Taken together, this study highlights the potential importance of intra-individual variability in physiological responses of scleractinian corals and provides recommendations for improving methodological designs for future studies. PMID:29038747

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Joel D.; Lee, Mihye; Kinney, Patrick L.; Yang, Suijia; Mills, David; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Streeter, Richard; St. Juliana, Alexis; Peers, Jennifer;

Chilling and Drought Stresses in Crop Plants: Implications, Cross Talk, and Potential Management Opportunities

PubMed Central

Hussain, Hafiz A.; Hussain, Saddam; Khaliq, Abdul; Ashraf, Umair; Anjum, Shakeel A.; Men, Shengnan; Wang, Longchang

2018-01-01

Plants face a combination of different abiotic stresses under field conditions which are lethal to plant growth and production. Simultaneous occurrence of chilling and drought stresses in plants due to the drastic and rapid global climate changes, can alter the morphological, physiological and molecular responses. Both these stresses adversely affect the plant growth and yields due to physical damages, physiological and biochemical disruptions, and molecular changes. In general, the co-occurrence of chilling and drought combination is even worse for crop production rather than an individual stress condition. Plants attain various common and different physiological and molecular protective approaches for tolerance under chilling and drought stresses. Nevertheless, plant responses to a combination of chilling and drought stresses are unique from those to individual stress. In the present review, we summarized the recent evidence on plant responses to chilling and drought stresses on shared as well as unique basis and tried to find a common thread potentially underlying these responses. We addressed the possible cross talk between plant responses to these stresses and discussed the potential management strategies for regulating the mechanisms of plant tolerance to drought and/or chilling stresses. To date, various novel approaches have been tested in minimizing the negative effects of combine stresses. Despite of the main improvements there is still a big room for improvement in combination of drought and chilling tolerance. Thus, future researches particularly using biotechnological and molecular approaches should be carried out to develop genetically engineered plants with enhanced tolerance against these stress factors. PMID:29692787

Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Klein, J.; Archibald, J. A.; Walter, T.

2012-12-01

The water cycle in semiarid environments is intimately connected to plant-water interactions making these regions sensitive to both future climatic changes and landuse alterations. This study explores the sensitivity of water resource availability from a Mediterranean perspective using the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) in Costa Navarino, Greece as a large-scale laboratory for developing and testing the potential resource impacts of various landuse/climatic trajectories. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration were combined with Penman-Monteith estimates to compare water vapor flux variability across the gradient of current management conditions found within the NEO landscape. These range from native, non-managed vegetation to historic, traditionally managed agriculture to modern, actively managed recreational lands. These management conditions greatly impact the vertical flux of water vapor in this semiarid landscape. Our evapotranspiration estimates were placed into a process-based modeling framework to characterize the current state of regional water resource availability and simulate future trajectories (and the associated uncertainties) in response to landuse/climatic changes. This region is quite sensitive with regards to water cycle modifications due to the anthropogenic redistribution of water within and across the landscape. Such sensitivity typifies that expected for much of the Mediterranean region, highlighting the NEO as a potential key location for future observation and investigation.

Psychosocial responses to biological and chemical terrorist threats and events. Implications for the workplace.

PubMed

Beaton, Randal; Murphy, Shirley

2002-04-01

1. Both biological and chemical weapons (BCW) could potentially be used in future terrorist attacks on U.S. workplaces and communities. 2. Threats of BCW terrorism may lead to anxiety, adverse health effects, and the exacerbation of psychiatric symptoms and syndromes in workers and managers. 3. Actual BCW attacks will likely cause both acute and chronic mental disorders in a significant number of surviving victims who may also be employees or employers. 4. Occupational health nurses can help prevent or remediate maladaptive psychological responses by educating themselves and their work forces, assisting in a risk assessment of the workplace, understanding disaster planning, and assisting management in policy formulation and psychosocial triage.

Sensation during Active Behaviors

PubMed Central

Cardin, Jessica A.; Chiappe, M. Eugenia; Halassa, Michael M.; McGinley, Matthew J.; Yamashita, Takayuki

2017-01-01

A substantial portion of our sensory experience happens during active behaviors such as walking around or paying attention. How do sensory systems work during such behaviors? Neural processing in sensory systems can be shaped by behavior in multiple ways ranging from a modulation of responsiveness or sharpening of tuning to a dynamic change of response properties or functional connectivity. Here, we review recent findings on the modulation of sensory processing during active behaviors in different systems: insect vision, rodent thalamus, and rodent sensory cortices. We discuss the circuit-level mechanisms that might lead to these modulations and their potential role in sensory function. Finally, we highlight the open questions and future perspectives of this exciting new field. PMID:29118211

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

PubMed Central

Petit, Géraldine; Cimochowska, Agnieszka; Kornreich, Charles; Hanak, Catherine; Verbanck, Paul; Campanella, Salvatore

2014-01-01

Background Alcohol dependence is a chronic relapsing disease. The impairment of response inhibition and alcohol-cue reactivity are the main cognitive mechanisms that trigger relapse. Despite the interaction suggested between the two processes, they have long been investigated as two different lines of research. The present study aimed to investigate the interaction between response inhibition and alcohol-cue reactivity and their potential link with relapse. Materials and methods Event-related potentials were recorded during a variant of a “go/no-go” task. Frequent and rare stimuli (to be inhibited) were superimposed on neutral, nonalcohol-related, and alcohol-related contexts. The task was administered following a 3-week detoxification course. Relapse outcome was measured after 3 months, using self-reported abstinence. There were 27 controls (seven females) and 27 patients (seven females), among whom 13 relapsed during the 3-month follow-up period. The no-go N2, no-go P3, and the “difference” wave (P3d) were examined with the aim of linking neural correlates of response inhibition on alcohol-related contexts to the observed relapse rate. Results Results showed that 1) at the behavioral level, alcohol-dependent patients made significantly more commission errors than controls (P<0.001), independently of context; 2) through the subtraction no-go P3 minus go P3, this inhibition deficit was neurophysiologically indexed in patients with greater P3d amplitudes (P=0.034); and 3) within the patient group, increased P3d amplitude enabled us to differentiate between future relapsers and nonrelapsers (P=0.026). Conclusion Our findings suggest that recently detoxified alcoholics are characterized by poorer response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a response is requested. PMID:24966675

Mothers’ Power Assertion, Children’s Negative, Adversarial Orientation, and Future Behavior Problems in Low-Income Families: Early Maternal Responsiveness as a Moderator of the Developmental Cascade

PubMed Central

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

2014-01-01

Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers’ responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children’s negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children’s behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children’s negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers’ responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts. PMID:25401483

Mothers' power assertion; children's negative, adversarial orientation; and future behavior problems in low-income families: early maternal responsiveness as a moderator of the developmental cascade.

PubMed

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna

2015-02-01

Parental power assertion, a key dimension of family environment, generally sets in motion detrimental developmental cascades; however, evidence suggests that other qualities of parenting, such as responsiveness, can significantly moderate those processes. Mechanisms that account for such moderating effects are not fully understood. We propose a conceptual model of processes linking parental power assertion, parental responsiveness, children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the parent, and behavior problems. We test that model in a short-term longitudinal design involving 186 low-income, ethnically diverse mothers and their toddlers. When children were 30 months, the dyads were observed in multiple, lengthy, naturalistic laboratory interactions to assess behaviorally mothers' responsiveness and their power-assertive control style. At 33 months, we observed behavioral indicators of children's negative, adversarial, rejecting orientation toward the mothers in several naturalistic and standardized paradigms. At 40 months, mothers rated children's behavior problems. The proposed moderated mediation sequence, tested using a new approach, PROCESS (Hayes, 2013), was supported. The indirect effect from maternal power assertion to children's negative, adversarial orientation to future behavior problems was present when mothers' responsiveness was either low or average but absent when mothers were highly responsive. This study elucidates a potential process that may link parental power assertion with behavior problems and highlights how positive aspects of parenting can moderate this process and defuse maladaptive developmental cascades. It also suggests possible targets for parenting intervention and prevention efforts. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land-use legacies.

PubMed

Perring, Michael P; De Frenne, Pieter; Baeten, Lander; Maes, Sybryn L; Depauw, Leen; Blondeel, Haben; Carón, María M; Verheyen, Kris

2016-04-01

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land-use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land-use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait-based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land-use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Jason A.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.

2017-01-01

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

17 CFR 171.42 - Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... ACTIONS Commission Review of Decisions by the National Futures Association In Member Responsibility Actions § 171.42 Notice of a final decision of the National Futures Association in a member responsibility... the Proceeding Clerk and Secretary of the Commission, with a written notice of any final decision in a...

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

2013-01-01

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Research Review: altered reward function in adolescent depression: what, when and how?

PubMed

Forbes, Erika E; Dahl, Ronald E

2012-01-01

Conceptual models and recent evidence indicate that neural response to reward is altered in depression. Taking a developmental approach to investigating reward function in adolescent depression can elucidate the etiology, pathophysiology and course of depression, a disorder that typically begins during adolescence and has high rates of recurrence. This conceptual review describes the what, when and how of altered reward function in adolescent depression. With the goal of generating new, testable hypotheses within a developmental affective neuroscience framework, we critically review findings and suggest future directions. Peer-reviewed empirical papers for inclusion in this critical review were obtained by searching PubMed, PsycInfo and ScienceDirect for the years 1990-2010. A pattern of low striatal response and high medial prefrontal response to reward is evident in adolescents and adults with depression. Given the salience of social stimuli for positive affect and depression, reward function might be especially disrupted in response to social rewards. Because of changes in the dopamine system and reward function with aging, altered reward function in depression might be more evident during adolescence than later in life; however, low reward function may also be a stable characteristic of people who experience depression. Mechanisms of altered reward function in depression could include disrupted balance of corticostriatal circuit function, with disruption occurring as aberrant adolescent brain development. Future studies should examine responses to social rewards; employ longitudinal and prospective designs; and investigate patterns of functional connectivity in reward circuits. Understanding altered reward function in depression has potential implications for treatment development. A more rigorous approach to investigating anhedonia, threat-reward interactions and comorbid anxiety will be valuable to future progress in describing the role of reward function in the pathophysiology of depression. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis.

PubMed

Younger, Jane L; Emmerson, Louise M; Miller, Karen J

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here, we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species' responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fish immune responses to parasitic copepod (namely sea lice) infection.

PubMed

Fast, Mark D

2014-04-01

Parasitic copepods, in particular sea lice, have considerable impacts upon global freshwater and marine fisheries, with major economic consequences recognized primarily in aquaculture. Sea lice have been a contentious issue with regards to interactions between farmed and wild populations of fish, in particular salmonids, and their potential for detrimental effects at a population level. The following discussion will pertain to aquatic parasitic copepod species for which we have significant information on the host-parasite interaction and host response to infection (Orders Cyclopoida, Poecilostomatoida and Siphonostomatoida). This review evaluates prior research in terms of contributions to understanding parasite stage specific responses by the host, and in many cases draws upon model organisms like Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Atlantic salmon to convey important concepts in fish responses to parasitic copepod infection. The article discusses TH1 and TH2-like host responses in light of parasite immunomodulation of the host, current methods of immunological stimulation and where the current and future work in this field is heading. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bicarbonate Induced Redox Proteome Changes in Arabidopsis Suspension Cells.

PubMed

Yin, Zepeng; Balmant, Kelly; Geng, Sisi; Zhu, Ning; Zhang, Tong; Dufresne, Craig; Dai, Shaojun; Chen, Sixue

2017-01-01

Climate change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO 2 affects plant growth and productivity. CO 2 is not only a carbon donor for photosynthesis but also an environmental signal that can perturb cellular redox homeostasis and lead to modifications of redox-sensitive proteins. Although redox regulation of protein functions has emerged as an important mechanism in several biological processes, protein redox modifications and how they function in plant CO 2 response remain unclear. Here a new iodoTMTRAQ proteomics technology was employed to analyze changes in protein redox modifications in Arabidopsis thaliana suspension cells in response to bicarbonate (mimic of elevated CO 2 ) in a time-course study. A total of 47 potential redox-regulated proteins were identified with functions in carbohydrate and energy metabolism, transport, ROS scavenging, cell structure modulation and protein turnover. This inventory of previously unknown redox responsive proteins in Arabidopsis bicarbonate responses lays a foundation for future research toward understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying plant CO 2 responses.

Bicarbonate Induced Redox Proteome Changes in Arabidopsis Suspension Cells

PubMed Central

Yin, Zepeng; Balmant, Kelly; Geng, Sisi; Zhu, Ning; Zhang, Tong; Dufresne, Craig; Dai, Shaojun; Chen, Sixue

2017-01-01

Climate change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 affects plant growth and productivity. CO2 is not only a carbon donor for photosynthesis but also an environmental signal that can perturb cellular redox homeostasis and lead to modifications of redox-sensitive proteins. Although redox regulation of protein functions has emerged as an important mechanism in several biological processes, protein redox modifications and how they function in plant CO2 response remain unclear. Here a new iodoTMTRAQ proteomics technology was employed to analyze changes in protein redox modifications in Arabidopsis thaliana suspension cells in response to bicarbonate (mimic of elevated CO2) in a time-course study. A total of 47 potential redox-regulated proteins were identified with functions in carbohydrate and energy metabolism, transport, ROS scavenging, cell structure modulation and protein turnover. This inventory of previously unknown redox responsive proteins in Arabidopsis bicarbonate responses lays a foundation for future research toward understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying plant CO2 responses. PMID:28184230

Determinants of public T cell responses.

PubMed

Li, Hanjie; Ye, Congting; Ji, Guoli; Han, Jiahuai

2012-01-01

Historically, sharing T cell receptors (TCRs) between individuals has been speculated to be impossible, considering the dramatic discrepancy between the potential enormity of the TCR repertoire and the limited number of T cells generated in each individual. However, public T cell response, in which multiple individuals share identical TCRs in responding to a same antigenic epitope, has been extensively observed in a variety of immune responses across many species. Public T cell responses enable individuals within a population to generate similar antigen-specific TCRs against certain ubiquitous pathogens, leading to favorable biological outcomes. However, the relatively concentrated feature of TCR repertoire may limit T cell response in a population to some other pathogens. It could be a great benefit for human health if public T cell responses can be manipulated. Therefore, the mechanistic insight of public TCR generation is important to know. Recently, high-throughput DNA sequencing has revolutionized the study of immune receptor repertoires, which allows a much better understanding of the factors that determine the overlap of TCR repertoire among individuals. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on public T-cell response and discuss future challenges in this field.

Investigating the ways in which health information technology can promote antimicrobial stewardship: a conceptual overview.

PubMed

King, Abby; Cresswell, Kathrin M; Coleman, Jamie J; Pontefract, Sarah K; Slee, Ann; Williams, Robin; Sheikh, Aziz

2017-08-01

Antimicrobial resistance is now recognised as a threat to health worldwide. Antimicrobial stewardship aims to promote the responsible use of antibiotics and is high on international and national policy agendas. Health information technology has the potential to support antimicrobial stewardship in a number of ways, but this field is still poorly characterised and understood. Building on a recent systematic review and expert roundtable discussions, we take a lifecycle perspective of antibiotic use in hospitals and identify potential targets for health information technology-based interventions to support antimicrobial stewardship. We aim for this work to help chart a future research agenda in this critically important area.

The future of fishes and fisheries in the changing oceans.

PubMed

Cheung, W W L

2018-03-01

This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Support group processes: Perspectives from HIV-infected women in South Africa.

PubMed

Mundell, J P; Visser, M J; Makin, J D; Forsyth, B W; Sikkema, K J

2012-01-01

This study examined the experiences and perceived benefits of support group participation among HIV-infected women in South Africa. From a qualitative analysis of responses, key psychological processes through which support groups are potentially beneficial were identified. These processes included: identification; modeling; acceptance; and empowerment. The participants' consequent life changes were explored in order to associate these processes with the positive outcomes of support group participation. Through understanding the relationship between the psychological processes within a support group setting and the potential benefits, and by targeting these processes in the development and implementation of future support group interventions, a framework is provided for achieving positive outcomes associated with support group participation.

Support group processes: Perspectives from HIV-infected women in South Africa

PubMed Central

Mundell, J.P.; Visser, M.J.; Makin, J.D.; Forsyth, B.W.; Sikkema, K.J.

2012-01-01

This study examined the experiences and perceived benefits of support group participation among HIV-infected women in South Africa. From a qualitative analysis of responses, key psychological processes through which support groups are potentially beneficial were identified. These processes included: identification; modeling; acceptance; and empowerment. The participants’ consequent life changes were explored in order to associate these processes with the positive outcomes of support group participation. Through understanding the relationship between the psychological processes within a support group setting and the potential benefits, and by targeting these processes in the development and implementation of future support group interventions, a framework is provided for achieving positive outcomes associated with support group participation. PMID:22514790

Public Health Analysis Transport Optimization Model v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beyeler, Walt; Finley, Patrick; Walser, Alex

PHANTOM models logistic functions of national public health systems. The system enables public health officials to visualize and coordinate options for public health surveillance, diagnosis, response and administration in an integrated analytical environment. Users may simulate and analyze system performance applying scenarios that represent current conditions or future contingencies what-if analyses of potential systemic improvements. Public health networks are visualized as interactive maps, with graphical displays of relevant system performance metrics as calculated by the simulation modeling components.

New KRAS Antibodies Available | Office of Cancer Clinical Proteomics Research

Cancer.gov

Researchers estimate that approximately 30% of all human cancers are driven by RAS oncogenes. Mutated RAS genes are responsible for making RAS proteins that support cancer development. While anti-RAS therapies may have potential clinical benefit, researchers yet do not understand how the four RAS protein isoforms, KRAS4A, KRAS4B, HRAS, and NRAS, drive malignant phenotypes. Well-characterized and defined reagents like antibodies are central to reproducibility in biomedical research and necessary for future RAS studies.

Mars extant-life campaign using an approach based on Earth-analog habitats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palkovic, Lawrence A.; Wilson, Thomas J.

2005-01-01

The Mars Robotic Outpost group at JPL has identified sixteen potential momentous discoveries that if found on Mars would alter planning for the future Mars exploration program. This paper details one possible approach to the discovery of and response to the 'momentous discovery'' of extant life on Mars. The approach detailed in this paper, the Mars Extant-Life (MEL) campaign, is a comprehensive and flexible program to find living organisms on Mars by studying Earth-analog habitats of extremophile communities.

Fictions of nuclear disaster

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dowling, D.

This work is critical study of literary interpretations of the nuclear holocaust. The author examines more than 250 stories and novels dealing with the theme of nuclear power and its devastating potential implications. Addressing such topics as the scientist and Armageddon, the role of religion, future evolution and mutation, and the postnuclear society, the author assesses the response of Bradbury, Lessing, Malamud, Shute, Huxley, Vonnegut, Heinlein, and others to the threat of nuclear apocalypse, with in-depth analyses of Alter Miller's A canticle for Leibowitz and Russell Hoban's Riddley Walker.

Photonuclear-based, nuclear material detection system for cargo containers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. L.; Yoon, W. Y.; Norman, D. R.; Haskell, K. J.; Zabriskie, J. M.; Watson, S. M.; Sterbentz, J. W.

2005-12-01

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been developing electron accelerator-based, photonuclear inspection technologies for over a decade. A current need, having important national implications, has been with the detection of smuggled nuclear material within air- and, especially, sea-cargo transportation containers. This paper describes the latest pulsed, photonuclear inspection system for nuclear material detection and identification in cargo configurations, the numerical responses of 5 kg of a nuclear material placed within selected cargo configurations, and the technology's potential role in addressing future inspection needs.

Prevention, adaptation, and threat denial: flooding experiences in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Zaalberg, Ruud; Midden, Cees; Meijnders, Anneloes; McCalley, Teddy

2009-12-01

Delta areas such as the Netherlands are more and more at risk of future flooding due to global climate change. Motivating residents living in flood-prone areas to effectively cope with local floods may lead to minimization of material losses and loss of life. The aim of this research was to investigate whether the extent to which residents had been exposed to flooding in the past was a key factor in motivating residents to effectively cope with future flooding. We also focused on the psychological variables that mediated this relationship. We conducted a survey (N = 516) among flood victims and nonvictims. We assessed subjective experiences due to past flooding, affective and cognitive appraisals, and coping responses. Results show that victims reported stronger emotions (negative and positive), and the receipt of more social support due to past flooding than did nonvictims. Moreover, victims worry more about future flooding, perceive themselves as more vulnerable to future flooding, perceive the consequences of future flooding as more severe, and have stronger intentions to take adaptive actions in the future than nonvictims. Structural equation modeling reveals that the latter effect was fully mediated by specific experiences and appraisals. Insights into factors and processes that have the potential to motivate residents to effectively cope with future floods may prove helpful in developing interventions to inform residents how to act effectively in case of an imminent flood.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

Prediction of individual response to anticancer therapy: historical and future perspectives.

PubMed

Unger, Florian T; Witte, Irene; David, Kerstin A

2015-02-01

Since the introduction of chemotherapy for cancer treatment in the early 20th century considerable efforts have been made to maximize drug efficiency and at the same time minimize side effects. As there is a great interpatient variability in response to chemotherapy, the development of predictive biomarkers is an ambitious aim for the rapidly growing research area of personalized molecular medicine. The individual prediction of response will improve treatment and thus increase survival and life quality of patients. In the past, cell cultures were used as in vitro models to predict in vivo response to chemotherapy. Several in vitro chemosensitivity assays served as tools to measure miscellaneous endpoints such as DNA damage, apoptosis and cytotoxicity or growth inhibition. Twenty years ago, the development of high-throughput technologies, e.g. cDNA microarrays enabled a more detailed analysis of drug responses. Thousands of genes were screened and expression levels were correlated to drug responses. In addition, mutation analysis became more and more important for the prediction of therapeutic success. Today, as research enters the area of -omics technologies, identification of signaling pathways is a tool to understand molecular mechanism underlying drug resistance. Combining new tissue models, e.g. 3D organoid cultures with modern technologies for biomarker discovery will offer new opportunities to identify new drug targets and in parallel predict individual responses to anticancer therapy. In this review, we present different currently used chemosensitivity assays including 2D and 3D cell culture models and several -omics approaches for the discovery of predictive biomarkers. Furthermore, we discuss the potential of these assays and biomarkers to predict the clinical outcome of individual patients and future perspectives.

Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking.

PubMed

Duchesne, Louis; Houle, Daniel; Ouimet, Rock; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Logan, Travis

2016-01-01

Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km(2) of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha(-1), which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec's managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041-2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec's forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests.

Estimating drought induced tree mortality in the Amazon rainforest: A simulation study with a focus on plant hydraulic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papastefanou, P.; Fleischer, K.; Hickler, T.; Grams, T.; Lapola, D.; Quesada, C. A.; Zang, C.; Rammig, A.

2017-12-01

The Amazon basin was recently hit by severe drought events that were unprecedented in their severity and spatial extent, e.g. during 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016. Significant amounts of biomass were lost, turning large parts of the rainforest from a carbon sink into a carbon source. It is assumed that drought-induced tree mortality from hydraulic failure played an important role during these events and may become more frequent in the Amazon region in the future. Many state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models do not include plant hydraulic processes and fail to reproduce observed rainforest responses to drought events, such as e.g. increased tree mortality. We address this research gap by developing a simple plant-hydraulic module for the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This plant-hydraulic module uses leaf water potential and cavitation as baseline processes to simulate tree mortality under drought stress. Furthermore, we introduce different plant strategies in the model, which describe e.g. differences in the stomatal regulation under drought stress. To parameterize and evaluate our hydraulic module, we use a set of available observational data from the Amazon region. We apply our model to the Amazon Basin and highlight similarities and differences across other measured and predicted drought responses, e.g. extrapolated observations and data derived from satellite measurements. Our results highlight the importance of including plant hydraulic processes in dynamic vegetation models to correctly predict vegetation dynamics under drought stress and show major differences on the vegetation dynamics depending on the selected plant strategies. We also identify gaps in process understanding of the triggering factors, the extent and the consequences of drought responses that hampers our ability to predict potential impact of future drought events on the Amazon rainforest.

Exploring the utility of high resolution "nano-" computed tomography imaging to place quantitative constraints on shell biometric changes in marine pteropods in response to ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eagle, R.; Howes, E.; Lischka, S.; Rudolph, R.; Büdenbender, J.; Bijma, J.; Gattuso, J. P.; Riebesell, U.

2014-12-01

Understanding and quantifying the response of marine organisms to present and future ocean acidification remains a major challenge encompassing observations on single species in culture and scaling up to the ecosystem and global scale. Understanding calcification changes in culture experiments designed to simulate present and future ocean conditions under potential CO2 emissions scenarios, and especially detecting the likely more subtle changes that may occur prior to the onset of more extreme ocean acidification, depends on the tools available. Here we explore the utility of high-resolution computed tomography (nano-CT) to provide quantitative biometric data on field collected and cultured marine pteropods, using the General Electric Company Phoenix Nanotom S Instrument. The technique is capable of quantitating the whole shell of the organism, allowing shell dimensions to be determined as well as parameters such as average shell thickness, the variation in thickness across the whole shell and in localized areas, total shell volume and surface area and when combined with weight measurements shell density can be calculated. The potential power of the technique is the ability to derive these parameters even on very small organisms less than 1 millimeter in size. Tuning the X-ray strength of the instrument allows organic material to be excluded from the analysis. Through replicate analysis of standards, we assess the reproducibility of data, and by comparison with dimension measurements derived from light microscopy we assess the accuracy of dimension determinations. We present results from historical and modern pteropod populations from the Mediterranean and cultured polar pteropods, resolving statistically significant differences in shell biometrics in both cases that may represent responses to ocean acidification.

Value of the internet in emergency response.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herzenberg, C. L.; Newsom, D. E.; Swietlik, C. E.

1999-05-26

Can the Internet be of value in emergency response? The answer is yes, judging by its use in the Kobe earthquake in Japan in 1995, ice storms in the US and Canada in 1998, and other disasters. Current and future areas of application are numerous, including exchanging messages, documents, and data files via e-mail; accessing operational data on-line; visualizing events via photos and maps; providing backup communications in lieu of broadcast media, exchanging information between crisis managers and responders; and providing information to media and the public. However, the Internet has some drawbacks, such as hardware/software requirements, computer literacy requirements,more » traffic jams, dependence on power and communication networks, and risks to information integrity and security. This paper examines some of the advantages, drawbacks, concerns, and potential uses of the Internet for emergency response.« less

Redox-Based Regulation of Bacterial Development and Behavior.

PubMed

Sporer, Abigail J; Kahl, Lisa J; Price-Whelan, Alexa; Dietrich, Lars E P

2017-06-20

Severe changes in the environmental redox potential, and resulting alterations in the oxidation states of intracellular metabolites and enzymes, have historically been considered negative stressors, requiring responses that are strictly defensive. However, recent work in diverse organisms has revealed that more subtle changes in the intracellular redox state can act as signals, eliciting responses with benefits beyond defense and detoxification. Changes in redox state have been shown to influence or trigger chromosome segregation, sporulation, aerotaxis, and social behaviors, including luminescence as well as biofilm establishment and dispersal. Connections between redox state and complex behavior allow bacteria to link developmental choices with metabolic state and coordinate appropriate responses. Promising future directions for this area of study include metabolomic analysis of species- and condition-dependent changes in metabolite oxidation states and elucidation of the mechanisms whereby the redox state influences circadian regulation.

Pharmacogenetics in type 2 diabetes: influence on response to oral hypoglycemic agents

PubMed Central

Dawed, Adem Yesuf; Zhou, Kaixin; Pearson, Ewan Robert

2016-01-01

Type 2 diabetes is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality, consuming a significant proportion of public health spending. Oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) are the frontline treatment approaches after lifestyle changes. However, huge interindividual variation in response to OHAs results in unnecessary treatment failure. In addition to nongenetic factors, genetic factors are thought to contribute to much of such variability, highlighting the importance of the potential of pharmacogenetics to improve therapeutic outcome. Despite the presence of conflicting results, significant progress has been made in an effort to identify the genetic markers associated with pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and ultimately therapeutic response and/or adverse outcomes to OHAs. As such, this article presents a comprehensive review of current knowledge on pharmacogenetics of OHAs and provides insights into knowledge gaps and future directions. PMID:27103840

Predicting response to EGFR inhibitors in metastatic colorectal cancer: current practice and future directions.

PubMed

Shankaran, Veena; Obel, Jennifer; Benson, Al B

2010-01-01

The identification of KRAS mutational status as a predictive marker of response to antibodies against the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) has been one of the most significant and practice-changing recent advances in colorectal cancer research. Recently, data suggesting a potential role for other markers (including BRAF mutations, loss of phosphatase and tension homologue deleted on chromosome ten expression, and phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase-AKT pathway mutations) in predicting response to anti-EGFR therapy have emerged. Ongoing clinical trials and correlative analyses are essential to definitively identify predictive markers and develop therapeutic strategies for patients who may not derive benefit from anti-EGFR therapy. This article reviews recent clinical trials supporting the predictive role of KRAS, recent changes to clinical guidelines and pharmaceutical labeling, investigational predictive molecular markers, and newer clinical trials targeting patients with mutated KRAS.

Blood eosinophil levels as a biomarker in COPD.

PubMed

Brusselle, Guy; Pavord, Ian D; Landis, Sarah; Pascoe, Steven; Lettis, Sally; Morjaria, Nikhil; Barnes, Neil; Hilton, Emma

2018-05-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disorder and patients respond differently to treatment. Blood eosinophils are a potential biomarker to stratify patient subsets for COPD therapy. We reviewed the value of blood eosinophils in predicting exacerbation risk and response to corticosteroid treatment in the available literature (PubMed articles in English; keywords: "COPD" and "eosinophil"; published prior to May 2017). Overall, clinical data suggest that in patients with a history of COPD exacerbations, a higher blood eosinophil count predicts an increased risk of future exacerbations and is associated with improved response to treatment with inhaled corticosteroids (in combination with long-acting bronchodilator[s]). Blood eosinophils are therefore a promising biomarker for phenotyping patients with COPD, although prospective studies are needed to assess blood eosinophils as a biomarker of corticosteroid response for this. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.