Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model.

PubMed

Shafer, Sarah L; Bartlein, Patrick J; Gray, Elizabeth M; Pelltier, Richard T

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0-58.0°N latitude by 136.6-103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070-2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projected climate and vegetation changes and potential biotic effects for Fort Benning, Georgia; Fort Hood, Texas; and Fort Irwin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, S.L.; Atkins, J.; Bancroft, B.A.; Bartlein, P.J.; Lawler, J.J.; Smith, B.; Wilsey, C.B.

2012-01-01

The responses of species and ecosystems to future climate changes will present challenges for conservation and natural resource managers attempting to maintain both species populations and essential habitat. This report describes projected future changes in climate and vegetation for three study areas surrounding the military installations of Fort Benning, Georgia, Fort Hood, Texas, and Fort Irwin, California. Projected climate changes are described for the time period 2070–2099 (30-year mean) as compared to 1961–1990 (30-year mean) for each study area using data simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), and UKMO-HadCM3, run under the B1, A1B, and A2 future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These climate data are used to simulate potential changes in important components of the vegetation for each study area using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, and LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model optimized for regional studies. The simulated vegetation results are compared with observed vegetation data for the study areas. Potential effects of the simulated future climate and vegetation changes for species and habitats of management concern are discussed in each study area, with a particular focus on federally listed threatened and endangered species.

Do Potential Past and Future Events Activate the Left-Right Mental Timeline?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aguirre, Roberto; Santiago, Julio

2017-01-01

Current evidence provides support for the idea that time is mentally represented by spatial means, i.e., a left-right mental timeline. However, available studies have tested only factual events, i.e., those which have occurred in the past or can be predicted to occur in the future. In the present study we tested whether past and future potential…

Perspectives on Adolescent Alcohol Use and Consideration of Future Consequences: Results from a Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Séamus A.; McKay, Michael T.

2017-01-01

Consideration of future consequences (CFC) is described as the attention that individuals pay to the potential outcomes of their behaviour, and how their behaviour is affected as a result of attention to these outcomes. Greater CFC has been associated with less alcohol use, thus indicating its potential utility in health-promotion initiatives. A…

The Aims and Objectives of the Monitoring the Future Study and Progress toward Fulfilling Them as of 2001. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 52.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Schulenberg, John E.; Bachman, Jerald G.

Monitoring the Future is an ongoing program of research intended to assess the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth. This publication, from the occasional paper series, describes a study that monitors drug use and potential explanatory factors among American secondary school students, college students, and young adults.…

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

PubMed Central

Teilans, Artis

2013-01-01

Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind energy is promising for expanding the national electricity generation and will continue to be a stable resource for electricity generation in the region over the 21st century. PMID:23983619

Incorporating Cold-Air Pooling into Downscaled Climate Models Increases Potential Refugia for Snow-Dependent Species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA

PubMed Central

Curtis, Jennifer A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Hudgens, Brian; Boydston, Erin E.; Young, Julie K.

2014-01-01

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist. PMID:25188379

Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtis, Jennifer A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Hudgens, Brian; Boydston, Erin E.; Young, Julie K.

2014-01-01

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

Mineral resource potential map of the Bighorn Mountains Wilderness Study Area (CDCA-217), San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matti, Jonathan C.; Cox, Brett F.; Rodriguez, Eduardo A.; Obi, Curtis M.; Powell, Robert E.; Hinkle, Margaret E.; Griscom, Andrew; Sabine, Charles; Cwick, Gary J.

1982-01-01

Geological, geochemical, and geophysical evidence, together with a review of historical mining and prospecting activities, suggests that most of the Bighorn Mountains Wilderness Study Area has low potential for the discovery of all types of mineral and energy resources-including precious and base metals, building stone and aggregate, fossil fuels, radioactive-mineral resources, and geothermal resources. Low-grade mineralization has been documented in one small area near Rattlesnake Canyon, and this area has low to moderate potential for future small-scale exploration and development of precious and base metals. Thorium and uranium enrichment have been documented in two small areas in the eastern part of the wilderness study area; these two areas have low to moderate potential for future small-scale exploration and development of radioactive-mineral resources.

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

Assessment of the application of advanced technologies to subsonic CTOL transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graef, J. D.; Sallee, G. P.; Verges, J. T.

1974-01-01

Design studies of the application of advanced technologies to future transport aircraft were conducted. These studies were reviewed from the perspective of an air carrier. A fundamental study of the elements of airplane operating cost was performed, and the advanced technologies were ranked in order of potential profit impact. Recommendations for future study areas are given.

Safety of disease-modifying drugs for multiple sclerosis in pregnancy: current challenges and future considerations for effective pharmacovigilance.

PubMed

Lu, Ellen; Wang, Bing Wei; Guimond, Colleen; Synnes, Anne; Sadovnick, A Dessa; Dahlgren, Leanne; Traboulsee, Anthony; Tremlett, Helen

2013-03-01

When contemplating a pregnancy, women treated for multiple sclerosis (MS) with a disease-modifying drug must decide to discontinue their medication before conception or risk exposing their unborn child to potential drug toxicity. Few studies exist as reference for patients and physicians, and of those available, the majority are less than ideal due to real-world constraints, ethical issues and methodological shortcomings. The authors provide a brief summary of existing animal and human data with current recommendations regarding the safety of IFN-β, glatiramer acetate, natalizumab, mitoxantrone, fingolimod and teriflunomide during pregnancy and lactation in women with MS. We also assess the quality, strengths and limitations of the existing studies including challenges with study design. The investigation of outcomes such as spontaneous abortion and congenital anomalies are highlighted with potential methodological improvements for future studies on drug safety in pregnancy suggested. The authors explore the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of the MS disease-modifying drugs for their possible mechanistic role in fetal harm and discuss the potential role of clinical trials. Future pharmacovigilance studies should continue to pursue multicenter collaboration with an emphasis on appropriate study design.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

PubMed Central

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-01-01

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification. PMID:26558436

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

PubMed

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-11-12

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Evaluating hydrological response of future land cover change scenarios in the San Pedro river (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed (AGWA) tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Fu...

Evaluating Hydrological Response of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool.

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban gro...

Making Decisions with the Future in Mind: Developmental and Comparative Identification of Mental Time Travel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suddendorf, T.; Busby, J.

2005-01-01

Mechanisms that produce behavior which increase future survival chances provide an adaptive advantage. The flexibility of human behavior is at least partly the result of one such mechanism, our ability to travel mentally in time and entertain potential future scenarios. We can study mental time travel in children using language. Current results…

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Past and future of radio occultation studies of planetary atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eshleman, Von R.; Hinson, David P.; Tyler, G. Leonard; Lindal, Gunnar F.

1987-01-01

Measurements of radio waves that have propagated through planetary atmospheres have provided exploratory results on atmospheric constituents, structure, dynamics, and ionization for Venus, Mars, Titan, Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. Highlights of past results are reviewed in order to define and illustrate the potential of occultation and related radio studies in future planetary missions.

Ares V an Enabling Capability for Future Space Astrophysics Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip

2007-01-01

The potential capability offered by an Ares V launch vehicle completely changes the paradigm for future space astrophysics missions. This presentation examines some details of this capability and its impact on potential missions. A specific case study is presented: implementing a 6 to 8 meter class monolithic UV/Visible telescope at an L2 orbit. Additionally discussed is how to extend the mission life of such a telescope to 30 years or longer.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

The Mechanisms of Manual Therapy in the Treatment of Musculoskeletal Pain: A Comprehensive Model

PubMed Central

Bialosky, Joel E; Bishop, Mark D; Price, Don D; Robinson, Michael E; George, Steven Z

2009-01-01

Prior studies suggest manual therapy (MT) as effective in the treatment of musculoskeletal pain; however, the mechanisms through which MT exerts its effects are not established. In this paper we present a comprehensive model to direct future studies in MT. This model provides visualization of potential individual mechanisms of MT that the current literature suggests as pertinent and provides a framework for the consideration of the potential interaction between these individual mechanisms. Specifically, this model suggests that a mechanical force from MT initiates a cascade of neurophysiological responses from the peripheral and central nervous system which are then responsible for the clinical outcomes. This model provides clear direction so that future studies may provide appropriate methodology to account for multiple potential pertinent mechanisms. PMID:19027342

Transportation Analysis and Feasibility Study : Sabino Canyon Recreation Area, Coronado National Forest

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-28

The goal of this report is to identify potential transportation solutions to issues that have been identified : at Sabino Canyon. Examples of future transportation systems are provided to show a variety of future : transportation conditions within th...

Economic study of future aircraft fuels (1970-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1972-01-01

Future aircraft fuels are evaluated in terms of fuel resource availability and pricing, processing methods, and economic projections over the period 1970-2000. Liquefied hydrogen, methane and propane are examined as potential turbine engine aircraft fuels relative to current JP fuel.

Effects of Climate Change and Deforestation on the Amazon's Hydrological Cycle Will Require Interventions to Hydropower Planning in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arias, M. E.; Farinosi, F.; Lee, E.; Livino, A.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2016-12-01

Brazil is the 2nd largest hydropower producer in the world, and this energy source will continue to be a priority in the country for the foreseeable decades. Yet, climate change is expected to alter the country's hydrological regime, in particular in the Amazon where most new hydropower development is occurring. In order to better assess the potential of hydropower projects in decades to come, it is important to evaluate how future hydrological regimes will affect their performance and suitability. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and land use conversion on hydropower generation, and identifies mechanisms that could help energy planners to account for future changes. Using the largest network of dams in Brazil's national portfolio within a single watershed, the Tapaj's River, this study connects global and regional future environmental projections to daily river flows and operations of 37 dams with an overall potential capacity of 29.4 GW. We found that climate change could decrease hydropower potential by 477-665 MW (-6 to -8% from historical conditions) during the dry season, a critical loss since dams are expected to operate at only one third of capacity during this perioddue to the limited reservoir volume of most projects in the Amazon lowlands. Furthermore, deforestation is expected to increase the inter-annual variability in hydropower potential from 2,798 for baseline conditions to 3,764-3,899 (+967-1102) MW under future scenarios for the 2040s. Consideration of future hydrological conditions on individual dams showed that the magnitude and uncertainty of losses could be greater than 30 MW -equivalent to the total potential of some dams in the inventory- in 11 of the projects studied. Future hydrological conditions could also delay the period when maximum daily generation occurs by 22-29 days, which could have important implications to energy planning in Brazil because these run-of-river dams would no longer be able to meet the country's seasonal peak demand. This information on future changes to individual dams' performance could feed directly into the project selection process in order to adapt designs and operations to ensure the greatest benefits and least impacts from hydropower in the long term.

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualls, Louis

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Program's budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Program's portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems Planning and Potential Future Systems Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Woerner, Dave F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Johnson, Stephen G.; Qualis, Louis

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Programs portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

Regenerative Chemical Biology: Current Challenges and Future Potential

PubMed Central

Ao, Ada; Hao, Jijun; Hong, Charles C.

2011-01-01

The enthusiasm surrounding the clinical potential of embryonic stem cells (ESCs) and induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) is tempered by the fact that key issues regarding their safety, efficacy, and long-term benefits have thus far been suboptimal. Small molecules can potentially relieve these problems at major junctions of stem cell biology and regenerative therapy. In this review, we will introduce recent advances in these important areas and the first-generation of small molecules used in the regenerative context. Current chemical biology studies will provide the archetype for future interdisciplinary collaborations, and improve clinical benefits of cell-based therapies. PMID:21513877

Silicon-sheet and thin-film cell and module technology potential: Issue study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimada, K.; Costogue, E. N.; Ferber, R. R.

1984-01-01

The development of high-efficiency low-cost crystalline silicon ribbon and thih-film solar cells for the energy national photovoltaics program was examined. The findings of an issue study conducted are presented. The collected data identified the status of the technology, future research needs, and problems experienced. The potentials of present research activities to meet the Federal/industry long-term technical goal of achieving 15 cents per kilowatt-hour levelized PV energy cost are assessed. Recommendations for future research needs related to crystalline silicon ribbon and thin-film technologies for flat-plate collectors are also included.

Human Hemato-Lymphoid System Mice: Current Use and Future Potential for Medicine

PubMed Central

Rongvaux, Anthony; Takizawa, Hitoshi; Strowig, Till; Willinger, Tim; Eynon, Elizabeth E.

2014-01-01

To directly study complex human hemato-lymphoid system physiology and respective system-associated diseases in vivo, human-to-mouse xenotransplantation models for human blood and blood-forming cells and organs have been developed over the past three decades. We here review the fundamental requirements and the remarkable progress made over the past few years in improving these systems, the current major achievements reached by use of these models, and the future challenges to more closely model and study human health and disease and to achieve predictive preclinical testing of both prevention measures and potential new therapies. PMID:23330956

Evaluating hydrological response of future land cover change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

Treesearch

William G. Kepner; I. Shea Burns; David C Goodrich; D. Phillip Guertin; Gabriel S. Sidman; Lainie R. Levick; Wison W.S. Yee; Melissa M.A. Scianni; Clifton S. Meek; Jared B. Vollmer

2016-01-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal...

Gilbert W. Beebe Symposium on 30 Years after the Chernobyl Accident: Current and Future Studies on Radiation Health Effects.

PubMed

Samet, Jonathan M; de González, Amy Berrington; Dauer, Lawrence T; Hatch, Maureen; Kosti, Ourania; Mettler, Fred A; Satyamitra, Merriline M

2018-01-01

This commentary summarizes the presentations and discussions from the 2016 Gilbert W. Beebe symposium "30 years after the Chernobyl accident: Current and future studies on radiation health effects." The symposium was hosted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies). The symposium focused on the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, looking retrospectively at what has been learned and prospectively at potential future discoveries using emerging 21st Century research methodologies.

Application of advanced technology to space automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schappell, R. T.; Polhemus, J. T.; Lowrie, J. W.; Hughes, C. A.; Stephens, J. R.; Chang, C. Y.

1979-01-01

Automated operations in space provide the key to optimized mission design and data acquisition at minimum cost for the future. The results of this study strongly accentuate this statement and should provide further incentive for immediate development of specific automtion technology as defined herein. Essential automation technology requirements were identified for future programs. The study was undertaken to address the future role of automation in the space program, the potential benefits to be derived, and the technology efforts that should be directed toward obtaining these benefits.

Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:23690959

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

PubMed

Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

2018-02-20

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

Heavy particle decay studies using different versions of nuclear potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santhosh, K. P.; Sukumaran, Indu

2017-10-01

The heavy particle decay from 212-240Pa , 219-245Np , 228-246Pu , 230-249Am , and 232-252Cm leading to doubly magic 208Pb and its neighboring nuclei have been studied using fourteen versions of nuclear potentials. The study has shown that the barrier penetrability as well as the decay half-lives are found to vary with the nuclear potential used. The investigated decay events of the emission of the clusters 22Ne , 24Ne , 26Mg , 28Mg , 32Si and 33Si are not experimentally detected yet but may be detectable in the future. As most of the half-lives predicted are found to lie within the experimental upper limit, T 1/2 < 1030 s, our predictions will be a guide to future experimental design. The GN plots studied are linear for different cluster emissions from different parents with varying slopes and intercepts. Also, it is to be noted that the linearity of the GN plots is unaltered using different nuclear potentials. The universal curve studied ( log10 T 1/2 vs. -ln P for various clusters emitted from various parents shows a linear behavior with the same slope and intercept irrespective of the nuclear potential used.

Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development: A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

1978-01-01

Current domestic and international air cargo operations are studied and the characteristics of 1990 air cargo demand are postulated from surveys conducted at airports and with shippers, consignees, and freight forwarders as well as air, land, and ocean carriers. Simulation and route optimization programs are exercised to evaluate advanced aircraft concepts. The results show that proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important enhancing the prospects of air cargo growth as is the advent of advanced freighter aircraft. Potential reductions in aircraft direct operating costs are estimated and related to future total revenue. Service and cost elasticities are established and utilized to estimate future potential tariff reductions that may be realized through direct and indirect operating cost reductions and economies of scale.

Report to the Congress on alternative methods for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-02-01

The purpose of this study is to fulfill the requirements of Public Law No. 101-46, approved June 30, 1989. The study describes and evaluates alternative methods for financing the future expansion of the Strategic petroleum Reserve (SPR), both to the current target level of 750 million barrels and to potential future levels of up to one billion barrels.

Synthetic Fuels for Transportation Background Paper #1 : The Future Potential of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-03-01

This report presents a comprehensive review of the future of electric and hybrid vehicles through the year 2010 in the United States. It was prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment as background information for its study, "Synthetic Fuels fo...

Identifying traits for genotypic adaptation using crop models.

PubMed

Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J

2015-06-01

Genotypic adaptation involves the incorporation of novel traits in crop varieties so as to enhance food productivity and stability and is expected to be one of the most important adaptation strategies to future climate change. Simulation modelling can provide the basis for evaluating the biophysical potential of crop traits for genotypic adaptation. This review focuses on the use of models for assessing the potential benefits of genotypic adaptation as a response strategy to projected climate change impacts. Some key crop responses to the environment, as well as the role of models and model ensembles for assessing impacts and adaptation, are first reviewed. Next, the review describes crop-climate models can help focus the development of future-adapted crop germplasm in breeding programmes. While recently published modelling studies have demonstrated the potential of genotypic adaptation strategies and ideotype design, it is argued that, for model-based studies of genotypic adaptation to be used in crop breeding, it is critical that modelled traits are better grounded in genetic and physiological knowledge. To this aim, two main goals need to be pursued in future studies: (i) a better understanding of plant processes that limit productivity under future climate change; and (ii) a coupling between genetic and crop growth models-perhaps at the expense of the number of traits analysed. Importantly, the latter may imply additional complexity (and likely uncertainty) in crop modelling studies. Hence, appropriately constraining processes and parameters in models and a shift from simply quantifying uncertainty to actually quantifying robustness towards modelling choices are two key aspects that need to be included into future crop model-based analyses of genotypic adaptation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their future labour market participation - an eight-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Trolle, Nanna; Lund, Thomas; Winding, Trine Nohr; Labriola, Merete

2017-03-31

Labour market participation among young adults is essential for their future socioeconomic status and health. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived stress among 20-21 year-olds and their labour market participation 8 years later as well as investigate any potential gender differences. A cohort of 1640 young adults born in 1983 completed a questionnaire in 2004 in which perceived stress was measured. The cohort was followed in a register of social benefits for 12 months in 2011-2012 and was categorized into active and passive labour market participation. Logistic regression was used to analyse the association between perceived stress and future labour market participation, taking into account effects of potential confounders. The analyses were stratified by gender. The effects of perceived stress on future labour market participation differed significantly among young women and young men (p = 0.029). For young men, higher levels of perceived stress reduced the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, self-rated health and copings strategies (p = 0.045). For young women, higher levels of perceived stress increased the risk of future passive labour market participation, when adjusting for the same potential confounding factors, although unlike the men, this association was not statistically significant (p = 0.335). The observed gender difference has important implications from a public health point of view. Healthcare professionals might need to differentiate between the genders in terms of health communication, research and when developing preventive strategies.

Mesenchymal stem cell therapy in cats: Current knowledge and future potential.

PubMed

Quimby, Jessica M; Borjesson, Dori L

2018-03-01

Practical relevance: Stem cell therapy is an innovative field of scientific investigation with tremendous potential for clinical application in veterinary medicine. Based on the known desirable immunomodulatory properties of mesenchymal stem cells, this therapy holds promise for the treatment of a variety of inflammatory diseases in cats. This review details our current understanding of feline stem cell biology and proposed mechanism of action. Studies performed in feline clinical trials for diseases including gingivostomatitis, chronic enteropathy, asthma and kidney disease are summarized, with the goal of providing an overview of the current status of this treatment modality and its potential for the future.

The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

PubMed

Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

2018-01-18

Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

Future fertility for individuals with differences of sex development: Parent attitudes and perspectives about decision-making.

PubMed

Johnson, Emilie K; Rosoklija, Ilina; Shurba, Angela; D'Oro, Anthony; Gordon, Elisa J; Chen, Diane; Finlayson, Courtney; Holl, Jane L

2017-08-01

Children, adolescents, and young adults (children/youth) with differences/disorders of sex development (DSD) face challenges related to future fertility; this may be due to variations in gonadal development, and, for some, gonadectomy performed to reduce the risk of malignancy. Childhood may be the only time for preservation of biological fertility potential for children/youth who undergo gonadectomy or have early gonadal failure. Fertility-related decision-making for these patients is particularly complicated, due to the need for parental proxy decision-making, potential discordance between gender identity and gonadal type, and uncertain future assisted reproductive technologies. This study aimed to assess: (1) attitudes regarding future fertility, and (2) healthcare needs for fertility-related decision-making among parents of children/youth with DSD. Semi-structured qualitative interviews about future fertility were conducted with parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents who had never discussed fertility with a healthcare provider were excluded. Grounded theory methodology was used to identify emergent themes and patterns. Demographics and clinical characteristics were assessed via survey and medical chart review. Nineteen parents were interviewed (participation rate: 60%, 14 mothers/5 fathers, median patient age at diagnosis 6 months (range 0-192), eight DSD diagnoses). The most common emergent themes are summarized in the Summary Table. Most parents identified fertility as a key concern, both at time of diagnosis and throughout development. Parents expressed difficulty with timing of disclosure about potential infertility to their children. Multiple preferences related to medical decision-making about future fertility and fertility preservation were expressed, including: a desire for step-by-step decision-making, and use of medically vetted information and research to guide decisions. This qualitative study provided new information about the perspectives of parents of children/youth with DSD regarding future fertility. Previous studies have suggested that the possibility of biological parenthood is important to many individuals with DSD. This study provided an in-depth parental perspective. This is important because many decisions that affect future fertility are made in childhood, and require parents to make decisions on behalf of their children. The study sample was limited in its geographic diversity. Strengths of the study included diversity in age of the child/youth, ethnic backgrounds, and the DSD diagnoses that were represented. Future fertility was a concern for many parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents expressed multiple priorities and preferences related to making difficult fertility-related medical decisions for their children. Many of the study findings could be incorporated into future best practices for discussions about fertility with families of children/youth with DSD. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antipsychotic therapeutic drug monitoring: psychiatrists’ attitudes and factors predicting likely future use

PubMed Central

Law, Suzanne; Haddad, Peter M.; Chaudhry, Imran B.; Husain, Nusrat; Drake, Richard J.; Flanagan, Robert J.; David, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Background: This study aimed to explore predictive factors for future use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and to further examine psychiatrists’ current prescribing practices and perspectives regarding antipsychotic TDM using plasma concentrations. Method: A cross-sectional study for consultant psychiatrists using a postal questionnaire was conducted in north-west England. Data were combined with those of a previous London-based study and principal axis factor analysis was conducted to identify predictors of future use of TDM. Results: Most of the 181 participants (82.9%, 95% confidence interval 76.7–87.7%) agreed that ‘if TDM for antipsychotics were readily available, I would use it’. Factor analysis identified five factors from the original 35 items regarding TDM. Four of the factors significantly predicted likely future use of antipsychotic TDM and together explained 40% of the variance in a multivariate linear regression model. Likely future use increased with positive attitudes and expectations, and decreased with potential barriers, negative attitudes and negative expectations. Scientific perspectives of TDM and psychiatrist characteristics were not significant predictors. Conclusion: Most senior psychiatrists indicated that they would use antipsychotic TDM if available. However, psychiatrists’ attitudes and expectations and the potential barriers need to be addressed, in addition to the scientific evidence, before widespread use of antipsychotic TDM is likely in clinical practice. PMID:26301077

Does Parent-Child Interaction Therapy Reduce Future Physical Abuse? A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Stephanie C.; Kim, Johnny S.; Tripodi, Stephen J.; Brown, Samantha M.; Gowdy, Grace

2016-01-01

Objective: To use meta-analytic techniques to evaluating the effectiveness of parent-child interaction therapy (PCIT) at reducing future physical abuse among physically abusive families. Methods: A systematic search identified six eligible studies. Outcomes of interest were physical abuse recurrence, child abuse potential, and parenting stress.…

Premises, Promises, and Potential Payoffs of Responsible Health Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seffrin, John R.

1997-01-01

This paper examines the history and future of health education. Data from an American Cancer Society study exemplify how well-designed, carefully conducted research can impact current understanding and future decisions in health education. Health educators' roles in making health education a national priority are discussed. (SM)

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 3: Cross impact between the 1990 market and the air physical distribution systems, book 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burby, R. J.; Kuhlman, W. H.

1978-01-01

Book 2 of this volume is divided into the following sections: (1) commodities and system networks; (2) future mode choice decisions and commodity air eligibility; (3) comparative cargo transportation costs - air, truck, rail and water; (4) elasticities of demand; (5) operating cost; (6) operating profit, rate making, and returns; (7) importance of rate and service on future aircraft; (8) potential market demand for new aircraft; (9) scenario of events affecting system/market growth; and (10) future study and technology requirements.

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

Perception of students' intelligence malleability and potential for future success: Unfavourable beliefs towards girls.

PubMed

Verniers, Catherine; Martinot, Delphine

2015-09-01

Endorsing an entity theory of intelligence has negative effects on students' academic trajectories. Research focused on students' personal theories of intelligence has shown that girls are more likely than boys to hold an entity theory of intelligence. However, no study has examined the possibility of a gender stereotype basis for this belief. We examined whether secondary school students are knowledgeable about others' beliefs describing female students' intelligence as less malleable than male students' intelligence. A sample of 85 French ninth graders were asked to rate to what extent others perceived: (1) female or male students' intelligence as malleable and fixed; (2) female or male students as making efforts for their current achievement; and (3) female or male students as having potential for future success. Participants reported that others perceived girls' intelligence as less malleable than boys' intelligence. Moreover, the relationship between current efforts and potential for future achievement depended on the target's gender. The more hardworking a female student was perceived to be in school, the less she was considered to have potential to succeed in the future, whereas such a link was not observed for a male student. Secondary school students seem to be knowledgeable about a gender stereotype regarding intelligence and potential for academic success which is unfavourable for female students. Implications for students' academic trajectories are discussed. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Potential subjects' responses to an ethics questionnaire in a phase I study of deep brain stimulation in early Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Finder, Stuart G; Bliton, Mark J; Gill, Chandler E; Davis, Thomas L; Konrad, Peter E; Charles, P David

2012-01-01

Central to ethically justified clinical trial design is the need for an informed consent process responsive to how potential subjects actually comprehend study participation, especially study goals, risks, and potential benefits. This will be particularly challenging when studying deep brain stimulation and whether it impedes symptom progression in Parkinson's disease, since potential subjects will be Parkinson's patients for whom deep brain stimulation will likely have therapeutic value in the future as their disease progresses. As part of an expanded informed consent process for a pilot Phase I study of deep brain stimulation in early stage Parkinson's disease, an ethics questionnaire composed of 13 open-ended questions was distributed to potential subjects. The questionnaire was designed to guide potential subjects in thinking about their potential participation. While the purpose of the study (safety and tolerability) was extensively presented during the informed consent process, in returned responses 70 percent focused on effectiveness and 91 percent included personal benefit as poten- tial benefit from enrolling. However, 91 percent also indicated helping other Parkinson's patients as motivation when considering whether or not to enroll. This combination of responses highlights two issues to which investigators need to pay close attention in future trial designs: (1) how, and in what ways, informed consent processes reinforce potential subjects' preconceived understandings of benefit, and (2) that potential subjects see themselves as part of a community of Parkinson's sufferers with responsibilities extending beyond self-interest. More importantly, it invites speculation that a different paradigm for informed consent may be needed.

High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: an event-related brain potential study.

PubMed

Cherniawsky, Avital S; Holroyd, Clay B

2013-03-01

Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that "high discounters" in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.

Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia

PubMed Central

Strager, Michael P.; Strager, Jacquelyn M.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Dunscomb, Judy K.; Kreps, Brad J.; Maxwell, Aaron E.

2015-01-01

Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts. PMID:26090883

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This is the Final Report representing the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirements of Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMIC) for space communication applications. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This Executive Summary presents the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirments for Monolithic Microwave Integrated circuits (MMIC) for space communication application. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development, and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

An Overview of Solar Sail Propulsion within NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Les; Swartzlander, Grover A.; Artusio-Glimpse, Alexandra

2013-01-01

Solar Sail Propulsion (SSP) is a high-priority new technology within The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and several potential future space missions have been identified that will require SSP. Small and mid-sized technology demonstration missions using solar sails have flown or will soon fly in space. Multiple mission concept studies have been performed to determine the system level SSP requirements for their implementation and, subsequently, to drive the content of relevant technology programs. The status of SSP technology and potential future mission implementation within the United States (US) will be described.

The gate studies: Assessing the potential of future small general aviation turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strack, W. C.

1979-01-01

Four studies were completed that explore the opportunities for future General Aviation turbine engines (GATE) in the 150-1000 SHP class. These studies forecasted the potential impact of advanced technology turbine engines in the post-1988 market, identified important aircraft and missions, desirable engine sizes, engine performance, and cost goals. Parametric evaluations of various engine cycles, configurations, design features, and advanced technology elements defined baseline conceptual engines for each of the important missions identified by the market analysis. Both fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft, and turboshaft, turboprop, and turbofan engines were considered. Sizable performance gains (e.g., 20% SFC decrease), and large engine cost reductions of sufficient magnitude to challenge the reciprocating engine in the 300-500 SHP class were predicted.

Effect of broadened-specification fuels on aircraft engines and fuel systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudey, R. A.

1979-01-01

A wide variety of studies on the potential effects of broadened-specification fuels on future aircraft engines and fuel systems are summarized. The compositions and characteristics of aircraft fuels that may be derived from current and future crude-oil sources are described, and the most critical properties that may effect aircraft engines and fuel systems are identified and discussed. The problems that are most likely to be encountered because of changes in selected fuel properties are explored; and the related effects on engine performance, component durability and maintenance, and aircraft fuel-system performance are examined. The ability of current technology to accept possible future fuel specification changes is assessed and selected technological advances that can reduce the severity of the potential problems are illustrated.

Effect of broadened-specification fuels on aircraft engines and fuel systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudey, R. A.

1979-01-01

A wide variety of studies on the potential effects of broadened-specification fuels on future aircraft engines and fuel systems are summarized. The compositions and characteristics of aircraft fuels that may be derived from current and future crude-oil sources are described, and the most critical properties that may affect aircraft engines and fuel systems are identified and discussed. The problems that are most likely to be encountered because of changes in selected fuel properties are described; and the related effects on engine performance, component durability and maintenance, and aircraft fuel-system performance are discussed. The ability of current technology to accept possible future fuel-specification changes is discussed, and selected technological advances that can reduce the severity of the potential problems are illustrated.

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Research participation registers can increase opportunities for patients and the public to participate in health services research.

PubMed

Leach, Verity; Redwood, Sabi; Lasseter, Gemma; Walther, Axel; Reid, Colette; Blazeby, Jane; Martin, Richard; Donovan, Jenny

2016-07-01

Members of the public and patients repeatedly indicate their willingness to take part in research, but current United Kingdom research governance involves complex rules about gaining consent. Research participation registers that seek consent from participants to be approached about future studies have several potential benefits, including: increased research participation across clinical and healthy populations; simplified recruitment to health care research; support for people's autonomy in decision making; and improved efficiency and generalizability of research. These potential benefits have to be balanced against ethical and governance considerations. With appropriate processes in place, seeking prospective consent from patients and members of the public to be approached about future studies could potentially increase public participation in health research without compromising informed consent and other ethical principles. © The Author(s) 2016.

Futuring, Strategic Planning and Shared Awareness: An Ohio University Libraries' Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staley, David J.; Seaman, Scott; Theodore-Shusta, Eileen

2012-01-01

A critical component of strategic planning is creating a shared-awareness among library staff of the potential societal, political, economic and technological changes that will influence how future users will create and consume scholarly materials, what will be expected of library services, and how facilities will be used. The ACRL Futuring…

An Agenda for the Future of Research in Honors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mariz, George

2016-01-01

Research in honors has become a priority for the National Collegiate Honors Council (NCHC), and the phrase presents the honors community with an interesting ambiguity about the appropriate focus for future studies. Potential topics might include the progress of honors students in comparison to their non-honors cohorts; the criteria for selecting…

ASSESSING THE RELATIVE AND COMBINED IMPACTS OF FUTURE LAND-USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we discuss the potential water quality impacts of future land-use and climate changes. The Little Miami River Basin was used as a case study. It is a predominantly agricultural watershed in southwestern Ohio (U.S.A.) that has experienced land-use modifications. ...

A potassium Rankine multimegawatt nuclear electric propulsion concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeister, E.; Rovang, R.; Mills, J.; Sercel, J.; Frisbee, R.

1990-01-01

Multimegawatt nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) has been identified as a potentially attractive option for future space exploratory missions. A liquid-metal-cooled reactor, potassium Rankine power system that is being developed is suited to fulfill this application. The key features of the nuclear power system are described, and system characteristics are provided for various potential NEP power ranges and operational lifetimes. The results of recent mission studies are presented to illustrate some of the potential benefits to future space exploration to be gained from high-power NEP. Specifically, mission analyses have been performed to assess the mass and trip time performance of advanced NEP for both cargo and piloted missions to Mars.

Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

PubMed

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

2016-08-01

Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

Families in the Army: Looking Ahead

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

WRi 0ata FEA14-64) This study considers how aggregate demand for Army family services will change in the future and identifies long-range issues posed...although Army actions and policies could potentially modify that future. Four long-range issues deserve closer study and continued monitoring: (1...important issues those changes pose, and explores their implications for force manage- ment and service delivery policies. It is meant to provide RAND and

Radar, Insect Population Ecology, and Pest Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughn, C. R. (Editor); Wolf, W. (Editor); Klassen, W. (Editor)

1979-01-01

Discussions included: (1) the potential role of radar in insect ecology studies and pest management; (2) the potential role of radar in correlating atmospheric phenomena with insect movement; (3) the present and future radar systems; (4) program objectives required to adapt radar to insect ecology studies and pest management; and (5) the specific action items to achieve the objectives.

Singlet-catalyzed electroweak phase transitions and precision Higgs boson studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Profumo, Stefano; Ramsey-Musolf, Michael J.; Wainwright, Carroll L.; Winslow, Peter

2015-02-01

We update the phenomenology of gauge-singlet extensions of the Standard Model scalar sector and their implications for the electroweak phase transition. Considering the introduction of one real scalar singlet to the scalar potential, we analyze present constraints on the potential parameters from Higgs coupling measurements at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and electroweak precision observables for the kinematic regime in which no new scalar decay modes arise. We then show how future precision measurements of Higgs boson signal strengths and the Higgs self-coupling could probe the scalar potential parameter space associated with a strong first-order electroweak phase transition. We illustrate using benchmark precision for several future collider options, including the high-luminosity LHC, the International Linear Collider, Triple-Large Electron-Positron collider, the China Electron-Positron Collider, and a 100 TeV proton-proton collider, such as the Very High Energy LHC or the Super Proton-Proton Collider. For the regions of parameter space leading to a strong first-order electroweak phase transition, we find that there exists considerable potential for observable deviations from purely Standard Model Higgs properties at these prospective future colliders.

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

PubMed

Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time.

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively. PMID:29664961

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.

PubMed

Thapa, Sunil; Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.

AMS in drug development at GSK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, G. C.; Ellis, W. J.

2007-06-01

A history of the use of AMS in GSK studies spanning the last 8 years (1998-2005) is presented, including use in pilot studies through to clinical, animal and in vitro studies. A brief summary of the status of GSK's in-house AMS capability is outlined and views on the future of AMS in GSK are presented, including potential impact on drug development and potential advances in AMS technology.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Review of Knowledge on the Occurrence, Chemical Composition, and Potential Use for Desalination of Saline Ground Water in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas with a Discussion of Potential Future Study Needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, G.F.

2004-01-01

Increasing demand on the limited supplies of freshwater in the desert Southwest, as well as other parts of the United States, has increased the level of interest in saline-water resources. Saline ground water has long been recognized as a potentially important contributor to water supply in the Southwest, as demonstrated by the number of hydrologic, geologic, and engineering studies on the distribution of saline water and the feasibility of desalination. Potential future study needs include investigating and documenting the three-dimensional distribution of salinity and chemical composition of saline-water resources and the hydraulic properties of aquifers containing these saline-water resources, assessing the chemical suitability of saline water for use with existing and anticipated desalination technologies, simulating the effect of withdrawal of saline ground water on water levels and water composition in saline and adjoining or overlying freshwater aquifers, and determining the suitability of target geologic formations for injection of desalination-generated waste.

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlögl, Matthias; Matulla, Christoph

2018-04-01

In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

The role of hunger state and dieting history in neural response to food cues: An event-related potential study.

PubMed

Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Kounios, John; Erickson, Brian; Berkowitz, Staci A; Lowe, Michael R

2017-10-01

A history of dieting to lose weight has been shown to be a robust predictor of future weight gain. A potential factor in propensity towards weight gain is the nature of people's reactions to the abundance of highly palatable food cues in the environment. Event Related Potentials (ERPs) have revealed differences in how the brain processes food cues between obese and normal weight individuals, as well as between restrained and unrestrained eaters. However, comparisons by weight status are not informative regarding whether differences predate or follow weight gain in obese individuals and restrained eating has not consistently been found to predict future weight gain. The present study compared ERP responses to food cues in non-obese historic dieters (HDs) to non-obese never dieters (NDs). HDs showed a blunted N1 component relative to NDs overall, and delayed N1 and P2 components compared to NDs in the hungry state, suggesting that early, perceptual processing of food cues differs between these groups, especially when food-deprived. HDs also showed a more hunger-dependent sustained ERP (LPP) compared to NDs. Future research should test ERP-based food cue responsivity as a mediator between dieting history and future weight gain to better identify those most at risk for weight gain as well as the nature of their vulnerability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

PubMed Central

Peterson, A. Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M.

2017-01-01

Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. PMID:29206879

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Alkishe, Abdelghafar A; Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2017-01-01

Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Evaluating the promise and pitfalls of a potential climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California.

PubMed

Sato, Kirk N; Powell, Jackson; Rudie, Dave; Levin, Lisa A

2018-05-01

Marine fishery stakeholders are beginning to consider and implement adaptation strategies in the face of growing consumer demand and potential deleterious climate change impacts such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. This study investigates the potential for development of a novel climate change - tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California based on Strongylocentrotus fragilis (pink sea urchin), a deep-sea species whose peak density was found to coincide with a current trap-based spot prawn fishery ( Pandalus platyceros ) in the 200-300-m depth range. Here we outline potential criteria for a climate change - tolerant fishery by examining the distribution, life-history attributes, and marketable qualities of S. fragilis in southern California. We provide evidence of seasonality of gonad production and demonstrate that peak gonad production occurs in the winter season. S. fragilis likely spawns in the spring season as evidenced by consistent minimum gonad indices in the spring/summer seasons across 4 years of sampling (2012-2016). The resiliency of S. fragilis to predicted future increases in acidity and decreases in oxygen was supported by high species abundance, albeit reduced relative growth rate estimates at water depths (485-510 m) subject to low oxygen (11.7-16.9 µmol kg -1 ) and pH Total (<7.44), which may provide assurances to stakeholders and managers regarding the suitability of this species for commercial exploitation. Some food quality properties of the S. fragilis roe (e.g. colour, texture) were comparable with those of the commercially exploited shallow-water red sea urchin ( Mesocentrotus franciscanus ), while other qualities (e.g. 80% reduced gonad size by weight) limit the potential future marketability of S. fragilis . This case study highlights the potential future challenges and drawbacks of climate-tolerant fishery development in an attempt to inform future urchin fishery stakeholders.

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Comparative Pessimism or Optimism: Depressed Mood, Risk-Taking, Social Utility and Desirability.

PubMed

Milhabet, Isabelle; Le Barbenchon, Emmanuelle; Cambon, Laurent; Molina, Guylaine

2015-03-05

Comparative optimism can be defined as a self-serving, asymmetric judgment of the future. It is often thought to be beneficial and socially accepted, whereas comparative pessimism is correlated with depression and socially rejected. Our goal was to examine the social acceptance of comparative optimism and the social rejection of comparative pessimism in two dimensions of social judgment, social desirability and social utility, considering the attributions of dysphoria and risk-taking potential (studies 2 and 3) on outlooks on the future. In three experiments, the participants assessed either one (study 1) or several (studies 2 and 3) fictional targets in two dimensions, social utility and social desirability. Targets exhibiting comparatively optimistic or pessimistic outlooks on the future were presented as non-depressed, depressed, or neither (control condition) (study 1); non-depressed or depressed (study 2); and non-depressed or in control condition (study 3). Two significant results were obtained: (1) social rejection of comparative pessimism in the social desirability dimension, which can be explained by its depressive feature; and (2) comparative optimism was socially accepted on the social utility dimension, which can be explained by the perception that comparatively optimistic individuals are potential risk-takers.

Factors affecting Iran`s future. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sinai, J.

1993-05-28

This study examines the factors affecting Iran`s future by focusing on the demographic, economic, and military trends in Iran and their impact on the country`s national security objectives in the next decade. The paper also assesses the implications of an economic embargo on Iran and potential Iranian threats to regional and United States national interests.

Strengthening environmental foresight: potential contributions of futures research

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; George H. Kubik; Peter C. Bishop

2012-01-01

The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does...

Engaging communities and climate change futures with Multi-Scale, Iterative Scenario Building (MISB) in the western United States

Treesearch

Daniel Murphy; Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel R. Williams; Cory Cleveland; Lisa Eby; Solomon Dobrowski; Erin Towler

2016-01-01

Current projections of future climate change foretell potentially transformative ecological changes that threaten communities globally. Using two case studies from the United States Intermountain West, this article highlights the ways in which a better articulation between theory and methods in research design can generate proactive applied tools that enable...

Impact of climate change on future concentrated solar power (CSP) production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian

2017-02-01

Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar power plants, the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be invariable over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering several decades indeed confirm long-term changes in this quantity. In a previous study (Wild et al. 2015, Solar Energy)1 we examined how the latest generation of climate models (CMIP5) projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, future power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. In the present complementary study, we use the CMIP5 model projections to estimate possible future changes in power output from Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems due to changing climate and air pollution levels up to the mid-21th century. The results indicate a potential for future increases in CSP production in many parts of the globe, with few exceptions such as the North of India and the irrelevant polar areas. Compared to the changes in PV production, the estimated future production changes by CSP are larger by a factor of 4.

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

PubMed Central

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

2013-01-01

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

Recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine or 'ecstasy': Current perspective and future research prospects.

PubMed

Parrott, Andrew C; Downey, Luke A; Roberts, Carl A; Montgomery, Cathy; Bruno, Raimondo; Fox, Helen C

2017-08-01

The purpose of this article is to debate current understandings about the psychobiological effects of recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or 'ecstasy'), and recommend theoretically-driven topics for future research. Recent empirical findings, especially those from novel topic areas were reviewed. Potential causes for the high variance often found in group findings were also examined. The first empirical reports into psychobiological and psychiatric aspects from the early 1990s concluded that regular users demonstrated some selective psychobiological deficits, for instance worse declarative memory, or heightened depression. More recent research has covered a far wider range of psychobiological functions, and deficits have emerged in aspects of vision, higher cognitive skill, neurohormonal functioning, and foetal developmental outcomes. However, variance levels are often high, indicating that while some recreational users develop problems, others are less affected. Potential reasons for this high variance are debated. An explanatory model based on multi-factorial causation is then proposed. A number of theoretically driven research topics are suggested, in order to empirically investigate the potential causes for these diverse psychobiological deficits. Future neuroimaging studies should study the practical implications of any serotonergic and/or neurohormonal changes, using a wide range of functional measures.

Snowmelt-Driven Trade-Offs Between Early and Late Season Productivity Negatively Impact Forest Carbon Uptake During Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, John F.; Molotch, Noah P.; Trujillo, Ernesto; Litvak, Marcy E.

2018-04-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally with unknown implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity. Accordingly, this study combined satellite- and tower-based observations to investigate the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, United States. Our results show that early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related and that future shifts toward earlier and/or reduced snowmelt could decrease snowmelt water use efficiency and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This was explained by increasing snow aridity, which incorporated evaporative demand and snow water supply, and was modified by summer precipitation to determine total annual productivity. The combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34 year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions.

Distribution of salmon-habitat potential relative to landscape characteristics and implications for conservation.

Treesearch

K.M. Burnett; G.H. Reeves; D.J. Miller; S. Clarke; K. Vance-Borland; K. Christiansen

2007-01-01

The geographic distribution of stream reaches with potential to support high-quality habitat for salmonids has bearing on the actual status of habitats and populations over broad spatial extents. As part of the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study, we examined how salmon-habitat potential was distributed relative to current and future (+100 years) landscape...

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

The Lunar Roving Vehicle: Historical perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morea, Saverio F.

1992-01-01

As NASA proceeds with its studies, planning, and technology efforts in preparing for the early twenty-first century, it seems appropriate to reexamine past programs for potential applicability in meeting future national space science and exploration goals and objectives. Both the National Commission on Space (NCOS) study and NASA's 'Sally Ride study' suggest future programs involving returning to the Moon and establishing man's permanent presence there, and/or visiting the planet Mars in both the unmanned and manned mode. Regardless of when and which of these new bold initiatives is selected as our next national space goal, implementing these potentially new national thrusts in space will undoubtedly require the use of both manned and remotely controlled roving vehicles. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to raise the consciousness level of the current space exploration planners to what, in the early 1970s, was a highly successful roving vehicle. During the Apollo program the vehicle known as the Lunar Roving Vehicle (LRV) was designed for carrying two astronauts, their tools, and the equipment needed for rudimentary exploration of the Moon. This paper contains a discussion of the vehicle, its characteristics, and its use on the Moon. Conceivably, the LRV has the potential to meet some future requirements, either with relatively low cost modifications or via an evolutionary route. This aspect, however, is left to those who would choose to further study these options.

Cancer Survivors’ Health Worries and Associations with Lifestyle Practices

PubMed Central

Mosher, Catherine E.; Lipkus, Isaac M.; Sloane, Richard; Kraus, William E.; Snyder, Denise Clutter; Peterson, Bercedis; Jones, Lee W.; Demark-Wahnefried, Wendy

2013-01-01

This study examined among recently diagnosed breast and prostate cancer survivors (N = 678) associations between worry about a future diagnosis of heart disease or cancer and hypothetical and actual adherence to exercise and dietary guidelines. Greater worry about future illness was reported under the hypothetical scenario of non-adherence to guidelines relative to the scenario of adherence. Worry about potential heart disease was associated with actual adherence to guidelines, whereas worry about a potential cancer diagnosis was not. Findings suggest that the motivational properties of worry should be considered when developing interventions to reduce heart disease risk among cancer survivors. PMID:18987083

Towards plant wires.

PubMed

Adamatzky, Andrew

2014-08-01

In experimental laboratory studies we evaluate a possibility of making electrical wires from living plants. In scoping experiments we use lettuce seedlings as a prototype model of a plant wire. We approximate an electrical potential transfer function by applying direct current voltage to the lettuce seedlings and recording output voltage. We analyse oscillation frequencies of the output potential and assess noise immunity of the plant wires. Our findings will be used in future designs of self-growing wetware circuits and devices, and integration of plant-based electronic components into future and emergent bio-hybrid systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Australian Red Dune Sand: A Potential Martian Regolith Analog

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlman, K. R.; Marshall, J.; Evans, N. D.; Luttge, A.

2001-01-01

To demonstrate the potential scientific and technical merits of in situ microscopy on Mars, we analyzed a possible Martian regolith analog - an acolian red dune sand from the central Australian desert (near Mt. Olga). This sand was chosen for its ubiquitous red coating and the desert environment in which is it found. Grains of this sand were analyzed using a variety of microanalytical techniques. A database of detailed studies of such terrestrial analogs would assist the study of geological and astrobiological specimens in future missions to Mars. Potential instrument concepts for in situ deployment on Mars include local electrode atom probe nanoanalysis (LEAP), vertical scanning white light interferometry (VSWLI), scanning electron microscopies, energy dispersive x-ray microanalysis (EDX), atomic force microscopy (AFM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). While in situ deployment of these techniques is many years away, ground-based studies using these analytical techniques extend our understanding of the data obtained from instruments to be flown in the near future.

Using health technology assessment to identify gaps in evidence and inform study design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Tunis, Sean R; Turkelson, Charles

2012-12-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is primarily used as a tool to ensure that clinical and policy decisions are made with the benefit of a systematic analysis of all completed research. This article describes the progress and potential for HTA reports to improve the quality and relevance of future research and to better serve the information needs of patients, clinicians, payers, and other decision makers. We conducted a review of the current published literature and working papers describing past, ongoing, and future initiatives that rely on HTA reports to identify gaps in evidence and improve the design of future research. Although still in a developmental stage, significant progress is under way to improve methods for using HTA reports for the systematic identification of research gaps, prioritization of future research, and improvement of study designs. Several well-defined frameworks have been developed to assist those who produce HTA to become more effective in these additional domains of work. A recurring element of this work is the importance of meaningfully involving stakeholders in the process of defining future research needs and designing studies to address them. Patients, clinicians, and payers are important audiences for completed research and are now recognized as serving an important role in determining what future research is needed. There are substantial opportunities to improve the quality, relevance, and efficiency of clinical research. Recent efforts are beginning to demonstrate the potential to build on the work invested in developing HTA reports to provide a roadmap toward these objectives.

Preliminary study of the aquifers of the lower Mesilla Valley in Texas and New Mexico by model simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gates, J.S.; White, D.E.; Leggat, E.R.

1984-01-01

Because the salinity of water in all three aquifers south of Canutillo is greater than elsewhere in the study area, there is potential for movement of this water northward toward the Canutillo well field if the cone of depression reaches that part of the aquifer system. This potential should be evaluated in future geohydrologic studies of the lower Mesilla Valley.

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

2015-01-01

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

The role of superconductivity in the Space Program: An assessment of present capabilities and future potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, D. B. (Editor)

1978-01-01

Technical subject areas discussed include: (1) high field magnets; (2) magnetometers; (3) digital electronics; (4) high frequency detectors; (5) instruments related to gravitational studies; and (6) ultra high Q cavities. Applications of superconductivity which are of potential interest to NASA were identified.

Potential for forest products in interior Alaska.

Treesearch

George R. Sampson; Willem W.S. van Hees; Theodore S. Setzer; Richard C. Smith

1988-01-01

Future opportunities for producing Alaska forest products were examined from the perspective of timber supply as reported in timber inventory reports and past studies of forest products industry potential. The best prospects for increasing industrial production of forest products in interior Alaska are for softwood lumber. Current softwood lumber production in the...

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future precipitation will not only contribute significantly to increased surface runoff, but also results in higher evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rates due to increased amounts of available water. Changes in the incoming solar radiation have a minimal impact on the simulated hydrologic processes. The overall simulated average annual recharge in the watershed is predicted to increase by approximately 100 mm/year over the next forty years from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year.

Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara Sue; Sleeter, Benjamin Michael; Davis, Adam Wilkinson

2015-01-01

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

Epidemiologic studies of electric and magnetic fields and cancer: strategies for extending knowledge.

PubMed Central

Savitz, D A

1993-01-01

Epidemiologic research concerning electric and magnetic fields in relation to cancer has focused on the potential etiologic roles of residential exposure on childhood cancer and occupational exposure on adult leukemia and brain cancer. Future residential studies must concentrate on exposure assessment that is enhanced by developing models of historical exposure, assessment of the relation between magnetic fields and wire codes, and consideration of alternate exposure indices. Study design issues deserving attention include possible biases in random digit dialing control selection, consideration of the temporal course of exposure and disease, and acquisition of the necessary information to assess the potential value of ecologic studies. Highest priorities are comprehensive evaluation of exposure patterns and sources and examination of the sociology and geography of residential wire codes. Future occupational studies should also concentrate on improved exposure assessment with increased attention to nonutility worker populations and development of historical exposure indicators that are superior to job titles alone. Potential carcinogens in the workplace that could act as confounders need to be more carefully examined. The temporal relation between exposure and disease and possible effect modification by other workplace agents should be incorporated into future studies. The most pressing need is for measurement of exposure patterns in a variety of worker populations and performance of traditional epidemiologic evaluations of cancer occurrence. The principal source of bias toward the null is nondifferential misclassification of exposure with improvements expected to enhance any true etiologic association that is present. Biases away from the null might include biased control selection in residential studies and chemical carcinogens acting as confounders in occupational studies. PMID:8206046

InDemand: Careers in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math. Issue 5

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Career Voyages, 2006

2006-01-01

The gateway to a successful future is not so much knowing your intended career path today but in keeping an open and curious mind about the information you are learning now in your classes and how it relates to potential career opportunities for the future--whether entering the work force after high school, college or advanced studies. This issue…

Mars exobiology landing sites for future exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landheim, Ragnhild; Greeley, Ronald; Desmarais, David; Farmer, Jack D.; Klein, Harold

1993-01-01

The selection of landing sites for Exobiology is an important issue for planning for future Mars missions. Results of a recent site selection study which focused on potential landing sites described in the Mars Landing Site Catalog are presented. In addition, basic Exobiology science objectives in Mars exploration are reviewed, and the procedures used in site evaluation and prioritization are outlined.

Simulated Sustainable Societies: Students' Reflections on Creating Future Cities in Computer Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nilsson, Elisabet M.; Jakobsson, Anders

2011-01-01

The empirical study, in this article, involved 42 students (ages 14-15), who used the urban simulation computer game SimCity 4 to create models of sustainable future cities. The aim was to explore in what ways the simulated "real" worlds provided by this game could be a potential facilitator for science learning contexts. The topic investigated is…

Future Scenario Development from Disruptive Exploration Technologies and Business Models in the U.S. Geothermal Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wall, Anna

With recent trends toward intermittent renewable energy sources in the U.S., the geothermal industry in its current form faces a crossroad: adapt, disrupt, or be left behind. Strategic planning with scenario analysis offers a framework to characterize plausible views of the future given current trends - as well as disruptions to the status quo. To inform strategic planning in the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO), the Geothermal Vision Study is tasked with offering data-driven pathways for future geothermal development. Scenario analysis is a commonly used tool in private industry corporate strategic planning as a way to prioritizemore » and manage large investments in light of uncertainty and risk. Since much of the uncertainty and risk in a geothermal project is believed to occur within early stage exploration and drilling, this paper focuses on the levers (technical and financial) within the exploration process that can be pulled to affect change. Given these potential changes, this work first qualitatively explores potential shifts to the geothermal industry. Future work within the Geothermal Vision Study will incorporate these qualitative scenarios quantitatively, in competition with other renewable and conventional energy industries.« less

Experiences and Future Expectations towards Online Courses--An Empirical Study of the B2C-and B2B-Segments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krämer, Andreas; Böhrs, Sandra

2016-01-01

This article explores the future potential for the development of online courses. The findings are based on an empirical study with 3 sample groups: (1) B2C segment in Germany, (2) B2C segment in the United States, and (3) B2B segment (international). In the first step the status quo of the use of e-learning in general and online courses in…

A Future with Hybrid Electric Propulsion Systems: A NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelRosario, Ruben

2014-01-01

The presentation highlights a NASA perspective on Hybrid Electric Propulsion Systems for aeronautical applications. Discussed are results from NASA Advance Concepts Study for Aircraft Entering service in 2030 and beyond and the potential use of hybrid electric propulsion systems as a potential solution to the requirements for energy efficiency and environmental compatibility. Current progress and notional potential NASA research plans are presented.

Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century

Treesearch

Anthony P. Bedel; Thomas L. Mote; Scott L. Goodrick

2013-01-01

Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of...

Time Perspectives and Gambling in Adolescent Boys: Differential Effects of Present- and Future-Orientation.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Sottili, Elena; Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina

2018-06-04

Adolescent boys are characterised by increased risk-taking behavior, including a relatively high propensity to develop problem gambling habits. The association between gambling and sensitivity to immediately available rewards is well-established, suggesting that gamblers are less influenced by potential future consequences than non-gamblers. Nevertheless, existing studies have considered present- and future-orientation as two ends of the same continuum, and have not investigated the possibility that present and future perspectives might make independent contributions to gambling behavior. In the current study, we adopted Zimbardo's multidimensional approach, which discriminates between not only present and future perspectives, but also between a hedonistic and fatalistic present-orientation (in addition to positive and negative orientations towards the past). The participants were 223 male adolescents (mean age = 16.7 years). We investigated the effects of time perspectives on gambling frequency and gambling problem severity, after taking into account the effects of age, sensation seeking, and gambling-related cognitive distortions. Gambling frequency was significantly predicted by the present fatalistic perspective, and problem gambling was significantly (negatively) related to the future perspective. The present hedonistic and past negative perspectives were also significantly related to both gambling frequency and gambling problems, although they did not explain additional variance in gambling behavior when the effects of the other factors were controlled. Overall, these results offer a fresh perspective on the role of time perspectives in gambling behavior, with potential implications for understanding the origins of gambling problems and the development of novel interventions.

Challenging Futures Studies To Enhance Participatory River Basin Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Helm, R.

Can the field of futures research help advance participatory management of river basins? This question is supposed to be answered by the present study of which this paper will mainly address the theoretical and conceptual point of view. The 2000 EU Framework directive on water emphasises at least two aspects that will mark the future management of river basins: the need for long-term planning, and a demand for participation. Neither the former nor the latter are new concepts as such, but its combination is in some sense revolutionary. Can long-term plans be made (and implemented) in a participative way, what tools could be useful in this respect, and does this lead to a satisfactory situation in terms of both reaching physical targets and enhancing social-institutional manageability? A possibly rich way to enter the discussion is to challenge futures research as a concept and a practice for enabling multiple stakeholders to design appropriate policies. Futures research is the overall field in which several methods and techniques (like scenario analysis) are mobilised to systematically think through and/or design the future. As such they have proven to be rich exercises to trigger ideas, stimulate debate and design desirable futures (and how to get there). More importantly these exercises have the capability to reconstitute actor relations, and by nature go beyond the institutional boundaries. Arguably the relation between futures research and the planning process is rather distant. Understandably commitments on the direct implementation of the results are hardly ever made, but its impact on changes in the capabilities of the network of actors involved may be large. As a hypothesis we consider that the distant link between an image of the future and the implementation in policy creates sufficient distance for actors to participate (in terms of responsibilities, legal constraints, etc.) and generate potentials, and enough degrees of freedom needed for a successful implementation. However, critical conceptual and design requirements have to be met in order to realise futures research potentials. Since the beginning of the 1990s futures studies are becoming (again) more and more widespread in many different domains (technology, education, urban development, agriculture, environment, etc.). Recently, experiences have been launched and are currently being launched in the water sector (of which the World Water Vision is a well -known - but not necessarily the most representative - example). Although futures studies on a river basin level are still scarce, they will offer already sufficient material for empirical analysis. The research, effectuated within a larger framework study on the implications of futures studies for environmental research, offers at this stage initially a conceptual understanding.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS) List of Near-Earth Asteroids: Identifying Potential Targets for Future Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abell, Paul; Barbee, B. W.; Mink, R. G.; Adamo, D. R.; Alberding, C. M.; Mazanek, D. D.; Johnson, L. N.; Yeomans, D. K.; Chodas, P. W.; Chamberlin, A. B.; Benner, L. A. M.; Drake, B. G.; Friedensen, V. P.

2012-10-01

Introduction: Much attention has recently been focused on human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Detailed planning for deep space exploration and identification of potential NEA targets for human space flight requires selecting objects from the growing list of known NEAs. NASA therefore initiated the Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Target Study (NHATS), which uses dynamical trajectory performance constraints to identify potentially accessible NEAs. Accessibility Criteria: Future NASA human space flight capability is being defined while the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and Space Launch System are under development. Velocity change and mission duration are two of the most critical factors in any human spaceflight endeavor, so the most accessible NEAs tend to be those with orbits similar to Earth’s. To be classified as NHATS-compliant, a NEA must offer at least one round-trip trajectory solution satisfying purposely inclusive constraints, including total mission change in velocity ≤ 12 km/s, mission duration ≤ 450 days (with at least 8 days at the NEA), Earth departure between Jan 1, 2015 and Dec 31, 2040, Earth departure C3 ≤ 60 km2/s2, and Earth return atmospheric entry speed ≤ 12 km/s. Monitoring and Updates: The NHATS list of potentially accessible targets is continuously updated as NEAs are discovered and orbit solutions for known NEAs are improved. The current list of accessible NEAs identified as potentially viable for future human exploration under the NHATS criteria is available to the international community via a website maintained by NASA’s NEO Program Office (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/nhats/). This website also lists predicted optical and radar observing opportunities for each NHATS-compliant NEA to facilitate acquisition of follow-up observations. Conclusions: This list of NEAs will be useful for analyzing robotic mission opportunities, identifying optimal round trip human space flight trajectories, and highlighting attractive objects of interest for future ground-based observation opportunities.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Increasing the realism of projected tree species ranges by incorporating migration potential: an eastern US case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Jantz, P.; Goetz, S. J.

2015-12-01

Models of vegetation distributions are used for a wide variety of purposes, from global assessments of biome shifts and biogeochemical feedbacks to local management planning. Dynamic vegetation models, mostly mechanistic in origin, are valuable for regional to global studies but remain limited for more local-scale applications, especially those that require species-specific responses to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used for such applications, but these too have several outstanding limitations, one of the most prominent being a lack of dispersal and migration. Several hybrid models have recently been developed, but these generally require detailed parameterization of species-level attributes that may not be known. Here we present an approach to couple migration potential with SDM output for a large number of species in order to more realistically project future range shifts. We focus on 40 tree species in the eastern US of potential management concern, either because of their canopy dominance, ecosystem functions, or potential for utilizing future climates. Future climates were taken from a CMIP5 model ensemble average using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We used Random Forests to characterize current and future environmental suitability, and modeled migration as a negative exponential kernel that is affected by forest fragmentation and the density of current seed sources. We present results in a vulnerability framework relevant for a number of ongoing management activities in the region. We find an overarching pattern of northward and eastward range shifts, with high-elevation and northern species being the most adversely impacted. Because of limitations to migration, many newly suitable areas could not be utilized without active intervention. Only a few areas exhibited consistently favorable conditions that could be utilized by the relevant species, including the central Appalachian foothills and the Florida panhandle. We suggest that a continued effort to include migration potential into vegetation models can lead to more realistic results and management-relevant products.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

PubMed

Starmer, Amy J; Duby, John C; Slaw, Kenneth M; Edwards, Anne; Leslie, Laurel K

2010-11-01

Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

Future orientation and suicide risk in Hungarian college students: Burdensomeness and belongingness as mediators.

PubMed

Chang, Edward C; Chang, Olivia D; Martos, Tamás; Sallay, Viola

2017-01-01

We tested a model consistent with the notion that perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness mediate the association between future orientation and suicide risk (viz., depressive symptoms and suicide ideation) in college students. The sample was comprised of 195 Hungarian college students. Results indicated that the negative associations found between future orientation and suicide risk outcomes were accounted for by both perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness. The present findings highlight the importance of studying positive future cognitions in suicide risk and provide support for perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness as potential proximal mechanisms associated with heighted suicide risk in adults.

Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

2016-12-01

Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

Motivators for Alzheimer's disease clinical trial participation.

PubMed

Bardach, Shoshana H; Holmes, Sarah D; Jicha, Gregory A

2018-02-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) research progress is impeded due to participant recruitment challenges. This study seeks to better understand, from the perspective of individuals engaged in clinical trials (CTs), research motivations. Participants, or their caregivers, from AD treatment and prevention CTs were surveyed about research motivators. The 87 respondents had a mean age of 72.2, were predominantly Caucasian, 55.2% were male, and 56.3% had cognitive impairment. An overwhelming majority rated the potential to help themselves or a loved one and the potential to help others in the future as important motivators. Relatively few respondents were motivated by free healthcare, monetary rewards, or to make others happy. Recruitment efforts should focus on the potential benefit for the individual, their loved ones, and others in the future rather than free healthcare or monetary rewards.

Single-cell epigenomics: powerful new methods for understanding gene regulation and cell identity.

PubMed

Clark, Stephen J; Lee, Heather J; Smallwood, Sébastien A; Kelsey, Gavin; Reik, Wolf

2016-04-18

Emerging single-cell epigenomic methods are being developed with the exciting potential to transform our knowledge of gene regulation. Here we review available techniques and future possibilities, arguing that the full potential of single-cell epigenetic studies will be realized through parallel profiling of genomic, transcriptional, and epigenetic information.

VEHICLE MASS REDUCTION STUDY | Science Inventory ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Analysis of the potential to reduce light-duty vehicle mass through the application of low density or high strength materials, component consolidation, and changes to vehicle architecture. Find a holistic vehicle design approach that establishes a potential path for future feasible vehicle mass reduction in light-duty vehicles to meet more stringent GHG and Fuel Economy Standards.

Demand Response Potential for California SubLAPs and Local Capacity Planning Areas: An Addendum to the 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study – Phase 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann

The 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study Phase 2 Report1 was released on March 1, 2017, and described a range of pathways for Demand Response (DR) to support a clean, stable, and cost-effective electric grid for California. One of the Report’s key findings was that while there appears to be very low future value for untargeted DR Shed aimed at system-wide peak load conditions, there could be significant value for locally focused Shed resources. Although the dynamics of renewable capacity expansion have reduced the pressure to build new thermal generation in general, there are still transmission-constrained areas of the statemore » where load growth needs to be managed with the addition of new local capacity, which could include DERs and/or DR. This Addendum to the Phase 2 Report presents a breakdown of the expected future “Local Shed” DR potential at a finer geographic resolution than what is available in the original report, with results summarized by SubLAP and Local Capacity Area (LCA).« less

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason P.; Argueso, Daniel; Fita, Lluis; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-11-01

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identified using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simulations using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional climate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100-200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be fewer ECLs, with weaker intensity in the future. There could also be a seasonal shift in ECLs from cool months to warm months. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the water security on the east coast of Australia.

GeoVision Study | Geothermal Technologies | NREL

Science.gov Websites

and technical issues of advanced technologies and potential future impacts and calculating geothermal : Exploration Reservoir development and management Social and environmental impacts Hybrid systems Thermal

Development and applications of single particle orientation and rotational tracking in dynamic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Kuangcai

The goal of this study is to help with future data analysis and experiment designs in rotational dynamics research using DIC-based SPORT technique. Most of the current studies using DIC-based SPORT techniques are technical demonstrations. Understanding the mechanisms behind the observed rotational behaviors of the imaging probes should be the focus of the future SPORT studies. More efforts are still needed in the development of new imaging probes, particle tracking methods, instrumentations, and advanced data analysis methods to further extend the potential of DIC-based SPORT technique.

Through a glass darkly: economics and personalised medicine.

PubMed

Haycox, Alan; Pirmohamed, Munir; McLeod, Claire; Houten, Rachel; Richards, Sarah

2014-11-01

Personalised medicine and pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategies will be of increasing importance in the future, both in terms of healthcare provision and evaluation. It is well recognised that significant variability exists in the response of patients to drugs resulting from genetic or biological variations; however, we are only now gradually becoming aware of the complexities involved. Enormous variability occurs in the risk-benefit ratio that will be experienced by each individual patient as a consequence of their overall genetic make-up. Although not a panacea, enhanced scientific knowledge of the genetic basis for such variability offers the potential for a more 'tailored' approach to prescribing in the future, making it more closely attuned to the needs of the individual patient. Such 'personalised' medicine has the potential to revolutionise care provision in a manner that provides a range of challenges to current structures and processes of 'conventional' healthcare delivery. The aim of this paper is to outline such challenges and analyse potential ways in which they may be addressed in the future. It provides non-expert readers with a non-technical case study of the complexities inherent in the evaluation of a pharmacogenetic-test-guided treatment strategy from a health economic perspective. Wherever possible, technical issues have been minimised; however, references are provided for readers who wish to enhance their knowledge of the pharmacological basis of the case study of cytochrome P450 test-guided treatment. The case study aims simply to illustrate the approach and difficulties encountered in the health economic evaluation of complex pharmacogenetic technologies. Such technologies present a range of new and complex issues which have crucial implications for health economists attempting to obtain an accurate assessment of the 'value' of the technology in clinical practice in an array of patient subgroups. Personalised medicine is the future and this paper highlights how pharmaceutical manufacturers, clinicians, regulators and other stakeholders must all play their part in the inevitable and accelerating move into this complex and uncertain future.

Nanotechnology-based restorative materials for dental caries management

PubMed Central

Melo, Mary A.S.; Guedes, Sarah F.F.; Xu, Hockin H.K.; Rodrigues, Lidiany K.A.

2013-01-01

Nanotechnology has been applied to dental materials as an innovative concept for the development of materials with better properties and anticaries potential. In this review we discuss the current progress and future applications of functional nanoparticles incorporated in dental restorative materials as useful strategies to dental caries management. We also overview proposed antimicrobial and remineralizing mechanisms. Nanomaterials have great potential to decrease biofilm accumulation, inhibit the demineralization process, to be used for remineralizing tooth structure, and to combat caries-related bacteria. These results are encouraging and open the doors to future clinical studies that will allow the therapeutic value of nanotechnology-based restorative materials to be established. PMID:23810638

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time. PMID:26863212

Integrating model abstraction into monitoring strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study was designed and performed to investigate the opportunities and benefits of integrating model abstraction techniques into monitoring strategies. The study focused on future applications of modeling to contingency planning and management of potential and actual contaminant release sites wi...

Potential Impact of the National Plan for Future Electric Power Supply on Air Quality in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, C.; Hong, J.

2014-12-01

Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced the national plan for Korea's future electric power supply (2013 - 2027) in 2013. According to the plan, the national demand for electricity will be increased by 60% compared to that of 2010 and primary energy sources for electric generation will still lean on the fossil fuels such as petroleum, LNG, and coal, which would be a potential threat to air quality of Korea. This study focused on two subjects: (1) How the spatial distribution of the primary air pollutant's emissions (i.e., NOx, SOx, CO, PM) will be changed and (2) How the primary emission changes will influence on the national ambient air quality including ozone in 2027. We used GEOS-Chem model simulation with modification of Korean emissions inventory (Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS)) to simulate the current and future air quality in Korea. The national total emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, PM in year 2027 will be increased by 3%, 8%, 13%, 2%, respectively compared to 2010 and there are additional concern that the future location of the power plants will be closer to the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), where there are approximately 20 million population vulnerable to the potentially worsened air quality. While there are slight increase of concentration of CO, NOx, SOx, and PM in 2027, the O3 concentration is expected to be similar to the level of 2010. Those results may imply the characteristics of air pollution in East Asia such as potentially severe O3 titration and poorer O3/CO or O3/NOx ratio. Furthermore, we will discuss on the impact of transboundary pollution transport from China in the future, which is one of the large factors to control the air quality of Korea.

Peer Study Groups as Catalyst for Vocational Exploration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arendale, David R.; Hane, Amanda R.

2016-01-01

Postsecondary peer assisted learning programs often cite improving academic achievement for students. This qualitative study investigated the potential effect of serving as student facilitators of a peer study group on their future vocation. This was a replication of previous studies of personal and professional outcomes for study group…

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

How can countries achieve sustainable food supply in 2050: current knowledge and way forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kummu, M.; Fader, M.; Gerten, D.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Jalava, M.; Jägermeyr, J.; Pfister, S.; Porkka, M.; Siebert, S.; Varis, O.

2016-12-01

Growing population and climate change increase the pressure on already scarce land and water resources. To reach adequate future food supply, without increasing the pressure on these already scarce resources, various measures are suggested, including diet change, food loss reduction and closing the yield gap. Existing studies have highlighted the potential of these measures as solutions for future food security. However, these are either assessed on a global level or if spatially disaggregated, disconnected from each other. These studies illustrate well that the potential of each measure to increase food availability differs widely across the nations. Thus, spatially explicit information on these measures in a combined assessment is urgently needed to understand the leading resource-efficiency opportunities for each geographic area. By using the most recent datasets, we assess how much each country would potentially be able to increase food production with each measure alone and combining them all, at moderate and high levels of implementation. Globally these measures would increase food availability by 90 and 188%, respectively - enough to feed global population in 2050 even with moderate implementation level. Variability among countries is, however, large and several countries in Central America, Africa, Southeast Asian Islands would need high-level of implementation to reach adequate food supply by then and even then, few countries in MENA region would need to increase the trade from today's levels. Our objective was to bring together potential of various measures for increased food production, as shown in different studies. However, dynamic feedbacks between these quantifications were not included in these estimations. For example, the diet change scenarios would result in different production needs, and changes in land use would be required. This, in turn, might influence the potential improvements in food loss reduction and food production. There is thus urgent need to integrate these, and other potential measures, together and deepen the knowledge of their combined impact on future sustainable food supply.

Shale gas, wind and water: assessing the potential cumulative impacts of energy development on ecosystem services within the Marcellus play.

PubMed

Evans, Jeffrey S; Kiesecker, Joseph M

2014-01-01

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km(2) in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades.

Shale Gas, Wind and Water: Assessing the Potential Cumulative Impacts of Energy Development on Ecosystem Services within the Marcellus Play

PubMed Central

Evans, Jeffrey S.; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

2014-01-01

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km2 in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades. PMID:24586599

Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Zhu, Chenyi; Wang, Tao; Xu, Zhichun; Shixiang, Zong

2018-05-23

The international invasive and quarantined defoliating insect Hyphantria cunea Drury (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) causes huge ecological and economic losses in the world. The future climate change may alter the distribution of H. cunea and aggravate the damage. In the present study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of H. cunea according to both historical climate data (1950-2000) and future climate warming estimates (2011-2100) to define the impact of climate change. Under the historical climate scenario, we found that H. cunea can survive on every continent, and temperature is the main factor that limits its establishment. With climate change, the suitability will increase in middle and high latitude regions, while decrease in the low latitude regions. Besides, tropic regions will be most sensitive to the climate change impacts for the pest to survive. The impacts of climate change will also increase over time, whether the positive impacts or negative impacts. The projected potential distributions provide a theoretical basis for quarantine and control strategies for the management of this pest in each country. Furthermore, these results provide substantial guidance for studies of the effects of climate change on other major forest pests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Polycystic ovary syndrome and adverse pregnancy outcomes: Current state of knowledge, challenges and potential implications for practice.

PubMed

Bahri Khomami, Mahnaz; Boyle, Jacqueline A; Tay, Chau T; Vanky, Eszter; Teede, Helena J; Joham, Anju E; Moran, Lisa J

2018-06-01

Although there is a growing body of literature reporting that pregnancies in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are associated with greater complications than those without PCOS, methodological differences across studies make these results difficult to consolidate. This narrative review outlines potential mechanisms involved in adverse pregnancy outcomes in PCOS and the nature of the complications. It covers limitations of current evidence and future research directions. Future research should include prospective studies with phenotypic stratification of PCOS and matching or consideration of specific PCOS manifestations and risk factors specific to each pregnancy complication. This review also emphasizes the importance of following a healthy lifestyle for women with PCOS and of individualized care according to overall risk factors for pregnancy complications. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

International employees' concerns during serious disease outbreaks and the potential impact on business continuity: Lessons identified from the 2014-15 West African Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Cole, Jennifer; Watkins, Chris

This paper presents the findings of research carried out into the information-seeking behaviour, and information requirements of a small sample of international workers stationed in West Africa during the Zaire Ebola virus outbreak of 2014-15. The research study under which these results were obtained was part of exploratory research for a PhD focused on the use, and potential uses, of social media platforms during serious disease outbreaks that might be used to inform policy planning for public health and emergency response interventions. Thus, the findings from this study may provide valuable insights to business continuity managers and emergency planners in making future decisions about information exchange and crisis decision-making during future serious disease outbreaks.

Projected future distribution of date palm and its potential use in alleviating micronutrient deficiency.

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Nojoumian, Amir Hadi; Esmaeili, Atefeh; Toghyani, Mehdi

2016-03-15

Micronutrient deficiency develops when nutrient intake does not match nutritional requirements for maintaining healthy tissue and organ functions which may have long-ranging effects on health, learning ability and productivity. Inadequacy of iron, zinc and vitamin A are the most important micronutrient deficiencies. Consumption of a 100 g portion of date flesh from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) has been reported to meet approximately half the daily dietary recommended intake of these micronutrients. This study investigated the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under future climates to address its potential long-term use as a food commodity to tackle micronutrient deficiencies in some developing countries. Modelling outputs indicated large shifts in areas conducive to date palm cultivation, based on global-scale alteration over the next 60 years. Most of the regions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies were projected to become highly conducive for date palm cultivation. These results could inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying areas to cultivate this nutritionally important crop in the future to support the alleviation of micronutrient deficiencies. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Feeling Closer to the Future Self and Doing Better: Temporal Psychological Mechanisms Underlying Academic Performance.

PubMed

Adelman, Robert Mark; Herrmann, Sarah D; Bodford, Jessica E; Barbour, Joseph E; Graudejus, Oliver; Okun, Morris A; Kwan, Virginia S Y

2017-06-01

This research examined the function of future self-continuity and its potential downstream consequences for academic performance through relations with other temporal psychological factors and self-control. We also addressed the influence of cultural factors by testing whether these relations differed by college generation status. Undergraduate students enrolled at a large public university participated in two studies (Study 1: N = 119, M age  = 20.55, 56.4% women; Study 2: N = 403, M age  = 19.83, 58.3% women) in which they completed measures of temporal psychological factors and psychological resources. In Study 2, we also obtained academic records to link responses to academic performance. Future self-continuity predicted subsequent academic performance and was related positively to future focus, negatively to present focus, and positively to self-control. Additionally, the relation between future focus and self-control was stronger for continuing-generation college students than first-generation college students. Future self-continuity plays a pivotal role in academic contexts. Findings suggest that it may have positive downstream consequences on academic achievement by directing attention away from the present and toward the future, which promotes self-control. Further, the strategy of focusing on the future may be effective in promoting self-control only for certain cultural groups. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Epidemiologic studies of electric and magnetic fields and cancer: Strategies for extending knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savitz, D.A.

1993-12-01

Epidemiologic research concerning electric and magnetic fields in relation to cancer has focused on the potential etiologic roles of residential exposure on childhood cancer and occupational exposure on adult leukemia and brain cancer. Future residential studies must concentrate on exposure assessment that is enhanced by developing models of historical exposure, assessment of the relation between magnetic fields and wire codes, and consideration of alternate exposure indices. Study design issues deserving attention include possible biases in random digit dialing control selection, consideration of the temporal course of exposure and disease, and acquisition of the necessary information to assess the potential valuemore » of ecologic studies. Highest priorities are comprehensive evaluation of exposure patterns and sources and examination of the sociology and geography of residential wire codes. Future occupational studies should also concentrate on improved exposure assessment with increased attention to nonutility worker populations and development of historical exposure indicators that are superior to job titles alone. Potential carcinogens in the workplace that could act as confounders need to be more carefully examined. The temporal relation between exposure and disease and possible effect modification by other workplace agents should be incorporated into future studies. The most pressing need is for measurement of exposure patterns in a variety of worker populations and performance of traditional epidemiologic evaluations of cancer occurrence. The principal source of bias toward the null is nondifferential misclassification of exposure with improvements expected to enhance any true etiologic association that is present. Biases away from the null might include biased control selection in residential studies and chemical carcinogens acting as confounders in occupational studies. 51 refs., 1 tab.« less

Dietary Acrylamide and Human Cancer: A Systematic Review of Literature

PubMed Central

Nagy, Tim R.; Barnes, Stephen; Groopman, John

2014-01-01

Cancer remains the second leading cause of death in the United States, and the numbers of cases are expected to continue to rise worldwide. Cancer prevention strategies are crucial for reducing the cancer burden. The carcinogenic potential of dietary acrylamide exposure from cooked foods is unknown. Acrylamide is a by-product of the common Maillard reaction where reducing sugars (i.e., fructose and glucose) react with the amino acid, asparagine. Based on the evidence of acrylamide carcinogenicity in animals, the International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified acrylamide as a group 2A carcinogen for humans. Since the discovery of acrylamide in foods in 2002, a number of studies have explored its potential as a human carcinogen. This paper outlines a systematic review of dietary acrylamide and human cancer, acrylamide exposure and internal dose, exposure assessment methods in the epidemiologic studies, existing data gaps, and future directions. A majority of the studies reported no statistically significant association between dietary acrylamide intake and various cancers, and few studies reported increased risk for renal, endometrial, and ovarian cancers; however, the exposure assessment has been inadequate leading to potential misclassification or underestimation of exposure. Future studies with improved dietary acrylamide exposure assessment are encouraged. PMID:24875401

Present and future potential of plant-derived products to control arthropods of veterinary and medical significance

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The use of synthetic pesticides and repellents to target pests of veterinary and medical significance is becoming increasingly problematic. One alternative approach employs the bioactive attributes of plant-derived products (PDPs). These are particularly attractive on the grounds of low mammalian toxicity, short environmental persistence and complex chemistries that should limit development of pest resistance against them. Several pesticides and repellents based on PDPs are already available, and in some cases widely utilised, in modern pest management. Many more have a long history of traditional use in poorer areas of the globe where access to synthetic pesticides is often limited. Preliminary studies support that PDPs could be more widely used to target numerous medical and veterinary pests, with modes of action often specific to invertebrates. Though their current and future potential appears significant, development and deployment of PDPs to target veterinary and medical pests is not without issue. Variable efficacy is widely recognised as a restraint to PDPs for pest control. Identifying and developing natural bioactive PDP components in place of chemically less-stable raw or 'whole’ products seems to be the most popular solution to this problem. A limited residual activity, often due to photosensitivity or high volatility, is a further drawback in some cases (though potentially advantageous in others). Nevertheless, encapsulation technologies and other slow-release mechanisms offer strong potential to improve residual activity where needed. The current review provides a summary of existing use and future potential of PDPs against ectoparasites of veterinary and medical significance. Four main types of PDP are considered (pyrethrum, neem, essential oils and plant extracts) for their pesticidal, growth regulating and repellent or deterrent properties. An overview of existing use and research for each is provided, with direction to more extensive reviews given in many sections. Sections to highlight potential issues, modes of action and emerging and future potential are also included. PMID:24428899

Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.

PubMed

Peng, Shouzhang; Li, Zhi

2018-05-22

To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CP-violating top quark couplings at future linear e^+e^- colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernreuther, W.; Chen, L.; García, I.; Perelló, M.; Poeschl, R.; Richard, F.; Ros, E.; Vos, M.

2018-02-01

We study the potential of future lepton colliders to probe violation of the CP symmetry in the top quark sector. In certain extensions of the Standard Model, such as the two-Higgs-doublet model (2HDM), sizeable anomalous top quark dipole moments can arise, which may be revealed by a precise measurement of top quark pair production. We present results from detailed Monte Carlo studies for the ILC at 500 GeV and CLIC at 380 GeV and use parton-level simulations to explore the potential of high-energy operation. We find that precise measurements in e^+e^- → t\\bar{t} production with subsequent decay to lepton plus jets final states can provide sufficient sensitivity to detect Higgs-boson-induced CP violation in a viable two-Higgs-doublet model. The potential of a linear e^+e^- collider to detect CP-violating electric and weak dipole form factors of the top quark exceeds the prospects of the HL-LHC by over an order of magnitude.

Flight program language requirements. Volume 2: Requirements and evaluations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The efforts and results are summarized for a study to establish requirements for a flight programming language for future onboard computer applications. Several different languages were available as potential candidates for future NASA flight programming efforts. The study centered around an evaluation of the four most pertinent existing aerospace languages. Evaluation criteria were established, and selected kernels from the current Saturn 5 and Skylab flight programs were used as benchmark problems for sample coding. An independent review of the language specifications incorporated anticipated future programming requirements into the evaluation. A set of detailed language requirements was synthesized from these activities. The details of program language requirements and of the language evaluations are described.

Sleep Disturbances in Adolescents with ADHD: A Systematic Review and Framework for Future Research

PubMed Central

Lunsford-Avery, Jessica R.; Krystal, Andrew D.; Kollins, Scott H.

2016-01-01

Background Biological mechanisms underlying symptom and prognostic heterogeneity in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) are unclear. Sleep impacts neurocognition and daytime functioning and is disrupted in ADHD, yet little is known about sleep in ADHD during adolescence, a period characterized by alterations in sleep, brain structure, and environmental demands as well as diverging ADHD trajectories. Methods A systematic review identified studies published prior to August 2016 assessing sleep in adolescents (aged 10–19 years) with ADHD or participating in population-based studies measuring ADHD symptoms. Results Twenty-five studies were identified (19 subjective report, 6 using actigraphy/polysomnography). Findings are mixed but overall suggest associations between sleep disturbances and 1) ADHD symptoms in the population and 2) poorer clinical, neurocognitive, and functional outcomes among adolescents with ADHD. Common limitations of studies included small or non-representative samples, non-standardized sleep measures, and cross-sectional methodology. Conclusions Current data on sleep in adolescent ADHD are sparse and limited by methodological concerns. Future studies are critical for clarifying a potential role of sleep in contributing to heterogeneity of ADHD presentation and prognosis. Potential mechanisms by which sleep disturbances during adolescence may contribute to worsened symptom severity and persistence of ADHD into adulthood and an agenda to guide future research are discussed. PMID:27969004

Biological treatment strategies for disc degeneration: potentials and shortcomings

PubMed Central

Nerlich, Andreas G.; Boos, Norbert

2006-01-01

Recent advances in molecular biology, cell biology and material sciences have opened a new emerging field of techniques for the treatment of musculoskeletal disorders. These new treatment modalities aim for biological repair of the affected tissues by introducing cell-based tissue replacements, genetic modifications of resident cells or a combination thereof. So far, these techniques have been successfully applied to various tissues such as bone and cartilage. However, application of these treatment modalities to cure intervertebral disc degeneration is in its very early stages and mostly limited to experimental studies in vitro or in animal studies. We will discuss the potential and possible shortcomings of current approaches to biologically cure disc degeneration by gene therapy or tissue engineering. Despite the increasing number of studies examining the therapeutic potential of biological treatment strategies, a practicable solution to routinely cure disc degeneration might not be available in the near future. However, knowledge gained from these attempts might be applied in a foreseeable future to cure the low back pain that often accompanies disc degeneration and therefore be beneficial for the patient. PMID:16983559

The Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS) List of Near-Earth Asteroids: Identifying Potential Targets for Future Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abell, Paul A.; Barbee, B. W.; Mink, R. G.; Alberding, C. M.; Adamo, D. R.; Mazanek, D. D.; Johnson, L. N.; Yeomans, D. K.; Chodas, P. W.; Chamberlin, A. B.;

Designing PISA-Like Mathematics Tasks In Indonesia: Experiences and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkardi, Z.; Kohar, A. W.

2018-01-01

The insignificant improvement of Indonesian students in PISA mathematics survey triggered researchers in Indonesia to develop PISA-like mathematics tasks. Some development studies have been conducted to produce valid and practical PISA-like problems that potentially effect on improving students’ mathematical literacy. This article describes the experiences of Indonesian task designers in developing PISA-like mathematics tasks as well as the potential future studies regarding to mathematical literacy as challenges for policy makers, researchers, and practitioners to improve students’ mathematical literacy in Indonesia. The results of this research indicate the task designers to consider domains of PISA like: context, mathematical content, and process as the first profiles of their missions. Our analysis shows that the designers mostly experienced difficulties regarding to the authenticity of context use and language structure. Interestingly, many of them used a variety of local wisdom in Indonesia as contexts for designing PISA-like tasks. In addition, the products developed were reported to be potentially effects on students’ interest and elicit students’ mathematical competencies as mentioned in PISA framework. Finally, this paper discusses future studies such as issues in bringing PISA task into an instructional practice.

Application of adaptive antenna techniques to future commercial satellite communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ersoy, L.; Lee, E. A.; Matthews, E. W.

1987-01-01

The purpose of this contract was to identify the application of adaptive antenna technique in future operational commercial satellite communication systems and to quantify potential benefits. The contract consisted of two major subtasks. Task 1, Assessment of Future Commercial Satellite System Requirements, was generally referred to as the Adaptive section. Task 2 dealt with Pointing Error Compensation Study for a Multiple Scanning/Fixed Spot Beam Reflector Antenna System and was referred to as the reconfigurable system. Each of these tasks was further sub-divided into smaller subtasks. It should also be noted that the reconfigurable system is usually defined as an open-loop system while the adaptive system is a closed-loop system. The differences between the open- and closed-loop systems were defined. Both the adaptive and reconfigurable systems were explained and the potential applications of such systems were presented in the context of commercial communication satellite systems.

Application of adaptive antenna techniques to future commercial satellite communications. Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ersoy, L.; Lee, E. A.; Matthews, E. W.

1987-01-01

The purpose of this contract was to identify the application of adaptive antenna technique in future operational commercial satellite communication systems and to quantify potential benefits. The contract consisted of two major subtasks. Task 1, Assessment of Future Commercial Satellite System Requirements, was generally referred to as the Adaptive section. Task 2 dealt with Pointing Error Compensation Study for a Multiple Scanning/Fixed Spot Beam Reflector Antenna System and was referred to as the reconfigurable system. Each of these tasks was further subdivided into smaller subtasks. It should also be noted that the reconfigurable system is usually defined as an open-loop system while the adaptive system is a closed-loop system. The differences between the open- and closed-loop systems were defined. Both the adaptive and reconfigurable systems were explained and the potential applications of such systems were presented in the context of commercial communication satellite systems.

DOT/NASA comparative assessment of Brayton engines for guideway vehicle and buses. Volume 1: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The Department of Transportation requested that the NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology evaluate and assess the potential of several types of gas turbine engines and fuels for the on-board power and propulsion of a future heavy-duty ground transportation system. The purpose of the investigation was threefold: (1) to provide a definition of the potential for turbine engines to minimize pollution, energy consumption, and noise; (2) to provide a useful means of comparison of the types of engine based on consistent assumptions and a common analytical approach; and (3) to provide a compendium of comparative performance data that would serve as the technical basis for future planning. Emphasis was on establishing comparison trends rather than on absolute values and a definitive engine selection. The primary value of this study is intended to be usefulness of the results to provide a quantitative basis for future judgement.

Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

2017-02-01

Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

Energy and Economic Impacts of Projected Freight Transportation Improvements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-05-01

This study examines current and future energy impacts for each major freight mode, by commodity, and, in many cases, by vehicle types. It also discusses potential economic impacts of these anticipated changes. The study is limited to intercity freigh...

Identity motives underlying desired and feared possible future selves.

PubMed

Vignoles, Vivian L; Manzi, Claudia; Regalia, Camillo; Jemmolo, Simone; Scabini, Eugenia

2008-10-01

Desired and feared possible future selves are important motivators of behavior and provide a temporal context for self-evaluation. Yet little research has examined why people desire some possible selves and fear others. In two studies, we tested the reflection of identity motives for self-esteem, efficacy, meaning, continuity, belonging, and distinctiveness in people's desired and feared possible future selves and in their possible future identity structures. As predicted, participants desired especially those possible futures in which motives for self-esteem, efficacy, meaning, and continuity would be satisfied, and they feared especially those in which the same four motives and, marginally, the motive for distinctiveness would be frustrated. Analyses supported an indirect path from belonging via self-esteem to desire and fear. Desired and feared possible future selves reflect potential satisfaction and frustration of these identity motives.

Synergistic Effects of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor on Bone Morphogenetic Proteins Induced Bone Formation In Vivo: Influencing Factors and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Li, Bo; Wang, Hai; Qiu, Guixing; Su, Xinlin

2016-01-01

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs), as key mediators in angiogenesis and osteogenesis, are used in a combined delivery manner as a novel strategy in bone tissue engineering. VEGF has the potential to enhance BMPs induced bone formation. Both gene delivery and material-based delivery systems were incorporated in previous studies to investigate the synergistic effects of VEGF and BMPs. However, their results were controversial due to variation of methods incorporated in different studies. Factors influencing the synergistic effects of VEGF on BMPs induced bone formation were identified and analyzed in this review to reduce confusion on this issue. The potential mechanisms and directions of future studies were also proposed here. Further investigating mechanisms of the synergistic effects and optimizing these influencing factors will help to generate more effective bone regeneration. PMID:28070506

Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development - A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study /CLASS/ project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

1978-01-01

The considered study has been conducted to evaluate the future potential for an advanced air cargo transport. A current operations analysis is discussed, taking into account the traffic structure, modal cost comparisons, terminal operations, containerization, and institutional factors. Attention is also given to case studies, a demand forecast, and an advanced air cargo systems analysis. The effects of potential improvements on reducing costs are shown. Improvement to the current infrastructure can occur from 1978 to 1985 with off-the-shelf technology, which when combined with higher load factors for aircraft and containers, can provide up to a 16 percent reduction in total operating costs and a 15 percent rate reduction. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important to improving the airlines' financial posture as is the anticipated large dedicated cargo aircraft.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Can They Plan to Teach with Web 2.0? Future Teachers' Potential Use of the Emerging Web

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kale, Ugur

2014-01-01

This study examined pre-service teachers' potential use of Web 2.0 technologies for teaching. A coding scheme incorporating the Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge (TPACK) framework guided the analysis of pre-service teachers' Web 2.0-enhanced learning activity descriptions. The results indicated that while pre-service teachers were able…

Collaborative Science Learning in Three-Dimensional Immersive Virtual Worlds: Pre-Service Teachers' Experiences in Second Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nussli, Natalie; Oh, Kevin; McCandless, Kevin

2014-01-01

The purpose of this mixed methods study was to help pre-service teachers experience and evaluate the potential of Second Life, a three-dimensional immersive virtual environment, for potential integration into their future teaching. By completing collaborative assignments in Second Life, nineteen pre-service general education teachers explored an…

Achieving wood energy potentials: evidence in northeastern Minnesota.

Treesearch

Dennis P. Bradley; David C. Lothner

1987-01-01

A study of wood energy potential in northeastern Minnesota concludes that (1) the forests of the region could support a much larger wood energy harvest without significant cost increases for other forest products; (2) existing stands are predominantly overmature and cutting more now will enhance future wood supplies for all users; (3) converting to wood energy could...

The Importance of Returned Martian Samples for Constraining Potential Hazards to Future Human Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

iMOST Team; Harrington, A. D.; Carrier, B. L.; Fernandez-Remolar, D. C.; Fogarty, J.; McCoy, J. T.; Rucker, M. A.; Spry, J. A.; Altieri, F.; Amelin, Y.; Ammannito, E.; Anand, M.; Beaty, D. W.; Benning, L. G.; Bishop, J. L.; Borg, L. E.; Boucher, D.; Brucato, J. R.; Busemann, H.; Campbell, K. A.; Czaja, A. D.; Debaille, V.; Des Marais, D. J.; Dixon, M.; Ehlmann, B. L.; Farmer, J. D.; Glavin, D. P.; Goreva, Y. S.; Grady, M. M.; Hallis, L. J.; Hausrath, E. M.; Herd, C. D. K.; Horgan, B.; Humayun, M.; Kleine, T.; Kleinhenz, J.; Mangold, N.; Mackelprang, R.; Mayhew, L. E.; McCubbin, F. M.; McLennan, S. M.; McSween, H. Y.; Moser, D. E.; Moynier, F.; Mustard, J. F.; Niles, P. B.; Ori, G. G.; Raulin, F.; Rettberg, P.; Schmitz, N.; Sefton-Nash, E.; Sephton, M. A.; Shaheen, R.; Shuster, D. L.; Siljestrom, S.; Smith, C. L.; Steele, A.; Swindle, T. D.; ten Kate, I. L.; Tosca, N. J.; Usui, T.; Van Kranendonk, M. J.; Wadhwa, M.; Weiss, B. P.; Werner, S. C.; Westall, F.; Wheeler, R. M.; Zipfel, J.; Zorzano, M. P.

2018-04-01

Thorough characterization and evaluation of returned martian regolith and airfall samples are critical to understanding the potential health and engineering system hazards during future human exploration.

Washington Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Data From Potential Field Studies

DOE Data Explorer

Anderson, Megan; Ritzinger, Brent; Glen, Jonathan; Schermerhorn, William

2017-12-20

A recent study which adapts play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology to assess geothermal potential was conducted at three locations (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens seismic zone, and Wind River valley) along the Washington Cascade Range (Forson et al. 2017). Potential field (gravity and magnetic) methods which can detect subsurface contrasts in physical properties, provides a means for mapping and modeling subsurface geology and structure. As part of the WA-Cascade PFA project, we performed potential field studies by collecting high-resolution gravity and ground-magnetic data, and rock property measurements to (1) identify and constrain fault geometries (2) constrain subsurface lithologic distribution (3) study fault interactions (4) identify areas favorable to hydrothermal flow, and ultimately (5) guide future geothermal exploration at each location.

The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians’ Social Health: A Qualitative Futurology

PubMed Central

DAMARI, Behzad; HAJIAN, Maryam; MINAEE, Farima; RIAZI-ISFAHANI, Sahand

2016-01-01

Background: Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. Methods: This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Results: Analysis of experts’ opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians’ social health. Conclusion: The global “resource challenge” is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians’ social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains. PMID:27648424

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security

PubMed Central

Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

2016-01-01

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems. PMID:27840814

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

PubMed

Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

2016-01-01

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Clinical use of cardiac PET/MRI: current state-of-the-art and potential future applications.

PubMed

Krumm, Patrick; Mangold, Stefanie; Gatidis, Sergios; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Nensa, Felix; Bamberg, Fabian; la Fougère, Christian

2018-05-01

Combined PET/MRI is a novel imaging method integrating the advances of functional and morphological MR imaging with PET applications that include assessment of myocardial viability, perfusion, metabolism of inflammatory tissue and tumors, as well as amyloid deposition imaging. As such, PET/MRI is a promising tool to detect and characterize ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathies. To date, the greatest benefit may be expected for diagnostic evaluation of systemic diseases and cardiac masses that remain unclear in cardiac MRI, as well as for clinical and scientific studies in the setting of ischemic cardiomyopathies. Diagnosis and therapeutic monitoring of cardiac sarcoidosis has the potential of a possible 'killer-application' for combined cardiac PET/MRI. In this article, we review the current evidence and discuss current and potential future applications of cardiac PET/MRI.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gann, Gabriel D. Orebi

Solar neutrinos offer a unique opportunity to study the interaction of neutrinos with matter, a sensitive search for potential new physics effects, and a probe of solar structure and solar system formation. This paper describes the broad physics program addressed by solar neutrino studies, presents the current suite of experiments programs, and describes several potential future detectors that could address the open questions in this field. This paper is a summary of a talk presented at the Neutrino 2014 conference in Boston.

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.

2018-01-01

using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

2018-02-01

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

The Future Labor Force and Workplace and the Scientific and Engineering Workforce: Implications for Society and Business and Potential Solutions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lightle, Juliana

This report examines the future shortages of scientists and engineers and suggests potential solutions to the shortage. The first section presents general demographic data and trends and interprets what this information suggests for the future economy and business in general. The second section considers the supply of physical scientists and…

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European coast is proposed and critical places with high potential risk are identified. For these critical places, we plan to asses the potential compound flood risk driven by coinciding extreme values of sea level and river discharge. Finally, we analyse the atmospheric large scale processes that lead to compound floods and their variation under future climate change scenarios.

Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

2001-01-01

This document contains the proceedings of the Training Workshop on Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems held at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, May 30-3 1, 2001. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University's Center for Advanced Engineering Environments and NASA. Workshop attendees were from NASA, other government agencies, industry, and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to give overviews of the diverse activities in nondeterministic approaches, uncertainty management methodologies, reliability assessment and risk management techniques, and to identify their potential for future aerospace systems.

[Methods of brain stimulation based on weak electric current--future tool for the clinician?].

PubMed

Kotilainen, Tuukka; Lehto, Soili M

2016-01-01

Methods of brain stimulation based on a weak electric current are non-invasive neuromodulation techniques. They include transcranial direct current, alternating current and random noise stimulation. These methods modify the membrane potential of neurons without triggering the action potential, and have been successfully utilized to influence cognition and regulation of emotions in healthy experimental subjects. In clinical studies, indications of the efficacy of these techniques have been obtained in the treatment of depression, schizophrenia, memory disorders and pain as well as in stroke rehabilitation. It is hoped that these techniques will become established as part of the care and rehabilitation of psychiatric and neurologic patients in the future.

Potential relationships between the river discharge and the precipitation in the Jinsha River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gaoxu; Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; He, Qifang; Bai, Yiran; Zhang, Ruoyu

2018-02-01

The relationships between the river discharge and the precipitation in the Jinsha River basin are discussed in this study. In addition, the future precipitation trend from 2011-2050 and its potential influence on the river discharge are analysed by applying the CCLM-modelled precipitation. According to the observed river discharge and precipitation, the annual river discharge at the two main hydrological stations displays good correlations with the annual precipitation in the Jinsha River basin. The predicted future precipitation tends to change similarly as the change that occurred during the observation period, whereas the monthly distributions over a year could be more uneven, which is unfavourable for water resources management.

Uncertainty in future projections of global and regional marine fisheries catches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reygondeau, G.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Froelicher, T. L.; Stock, C. A.; Jones, M. C.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2016-02-01

Previous studies have projected the global redistribution of potential marine fisheries catches by mid-21st century under climate change, with increases in high latitude regions and pronounced decreases in tropical biomes. However, quantified confidence levels of such projections are not available, rendering it difficult to interpret the associated risk to society. This paper quantifies the confidence of changes in future fish production using a 30-member ensemble simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M (representing internal variability of oceanographic conditions), three structural variants of a mechanistic species distribution model (representing uncertainty in fisheries models and different greenhouse gas emission and fishing scenarios (representing scenario uncertainty). We project that total potential catches of 500 exploited fish and invertebrate stocks, that contribute most to regional fisheries catches and their variability, will likely decrease in the 21st century under a `business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). Fishing and it's management remains a main factor determining future fish stocks and their catches. Internal variability of projected ocean conditions, including temperature, oxygen level, pH, net primary production and sea ice contributes substantially to the uncertainty of potential catch projections. Regionally, climate-driven decreases in potential catches in tropical oceans and increases in the Arctic polar regions are projected with higher confidence than other regions, while the direction of changes in most mid-latitude (or temperate) regions is uncertain. Under a stringent greenhouse gas mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6), climate change impacts on potential catches may not emerge from their uncertainties. Overall, this study provides a foundation for quantifying risks of climate change impacts on marine fisheries globally and regionally, and how such risk may be altered by policy interventions.

Endogenous opioid system: a promising target for future smoking cessation medications.

PubMed

Norman, Haval; D'Souza, Manoranjan S

2017-05-01

Nicotine addiction continues to be a health challenge across the world. Despite several approved medications, smokers continue to relapse. Several human and animal studies have evaluated the role of the endogenous opioid system as a potential target for smoking cessation medications. In this review, studies that have elucidated the role of the mu (MORs), delta (DORs), and kappa (KORs) opioid receptors in nicotine reward, nicotine withdrawal, and reinstatement of nicotine seeking will be discussed. Additionally, the review will discuss discrepancies in the literature and therapeutic potential of the endogenous opioid system, and suggest studies to address gaps in knowledge with respect to the role of the opioid receptors in nicotine dependence. Data available till date suggest that blockade of the MORs and DORs decreased the rewarding effects of nicotine, while activation of the MORs and DORs decreased nicotine withdrawal-induced aversive effects. In contrast, activation of the KORs decreased the rewarding effects of nicotine, while blockade of the KORs decreased nicotine withdrawal-induced aversive effects. Interestingly, blockade of the MORs and KORs attenuated reinstatement of nicotine seeking. In humans, MOR antagonists have shown benefits in select subpopulations of smokers and further investigation is required to realize their full therapeutic potential. Future work must assess the influence of polymorphisms in opioid receptor-linked genes in nicotine dependence, which will help in both identifying individuals vulnerable to nicotine addiction and the development of opioid-based smoking cessation medications. Overall, the endogenous opioid system continues to be a promising target for future smoking cessation medications.

Compound Complementarities in the Study of Motivated Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teitelbaum, Philip; Stricker, Edward M.

1994-01-01

The 1954 article by Eliot Stellar provided the theoretical focus for a great deal of research on the biological bases of human behavior. Future attention to the infrastructure of behaviors being studied, combined with reductionistic studies of neurons, will fulfill the potential contribution to behavioral neuroscience implicit in Stellar's…

Virtual worlds to support patient group communication? A questionnaire study investigating potential for virtual world focus group use by respiratory patients.

PubMed

Taylor, Michael J; Taylor, Dave; Vlaev, Ivo; Elkin, Sarah

2017-01-01

Recent advances in communication technologies enable potential provision of remote education for patients using computer-generated environments known as virtual worlds. Previous research has revealed highly variable levels of patient receptiveness to using information technologies for healthcare-related purposes. This preliminary study involved implementing a questionnaire investigating attitudes and access to computer technologies of respiratory outpatients, in order to assess potential for use of virtual worlds to facilitate health-related education for this sample. Ninety-four patients with a chronic respiratory condition completed surveys, which were distributed at a Chest Clinic. In accordance with our prediction, younger participants were more likely to be able to use, and have access to a computer and some patients were keen to explore use virtual worlds for healthcare-related purposes: Of those with access to computer facilities, 14.50% expressed a willingness to attend a virtual world focus group. Results indicate future virtual world health education facilities should be designed to cater for younger patients, because this group are most likely to accept and use such facilities. Within the study sample, this is likely to comprise of people diagnosed with asthma. Future work could investigate the potential of creating a virtual world asthma education facility.

Virtual worlds to support patient group communication? A questionnaire study investigating potential for virtual world focus group use by respiratory patients

PubMed Central

Taylor, Michael J.; Taylor, Dave; Vlaev, Ivo; Elkin, Sarah

2015-01-01

Recent advances in communication technologies enable potential provision of remote education for patients using computer-generated environments known as virtual worlds. Previous research has revealed highly variable levels of patient receptiveness to using information technologies for healthcare-related purposes. This preliminary study involved implementing a questionnaire investigating attitudes and access to computer technologies of respiratory outpatients, in order to assess potential for use of virtual worlds to facilitate health-related education for this sample. Ninety-four patients with a chronic respiratory condition completed surveys, which were distributed at a Chest Clinic. In accordance with our prediction, younger participants were more likely to be able to use, and have access to a computer and some patients were keen to explore use virtual worlds for healthcare-related purposes: Of those with access to computer facilities, 14.50% expressed a willingness to attend a virtual world focus group. Results indicate future virtual world health education facilities should be designed to cater for younger patients, because this group are most likely to accept and use such facilities. Within the study sample, this is likely to comprise of people diagnosed with asthma. Future work could investigate the potential of creating a virtual world asthma education facility. PMID:28239187

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.

1992-01-01

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Episodic and semantic components of autobiographical memories and imagined future events in post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Brown, Adam D; Addis, Donna Rose; Romano, Tracy A; Marmar, Charles R; Bryant, Richard A; Hirst, William; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to retrieve autobiographical memories with less episodic specificity, referred to as overgeneralised autobiographical memory. In line with evidence that autobiographical memory overlaps with one's capacity to imagine the future, recent work has also shown that individuals with PTSD also imagine themselves in the future with less episodic specificity. To date most studies quantify episodic specificity by the presence of a distinct event. However, this method does not distinguish between the numbers of internal (episodic) and external (semantic) details, which can provide additional insights into remembering the past and imagining the future. This study employed the Autobiographical Interview (AI) coding scheme to the autobiographical memory and imagined future event narratives generated by combat veterans with and without PTSD. Responses were coded for the number of internal and external details. Compared to combat veterans without PTSD, those with PTSD generated more external than internal details when recalling past or imagining future events, and fewer internal details were associated with greater symptom severity. The potential mechanisms underlying these bidirectional deficits and clinical implications are discussed.

New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: Regional intercomparison of current and future risks from impact waves due to rock/ice avalanches in the Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaub, Y.; Huggel, C.; Serraino, M.; Haeberli, W.

2012-04-01

The changes in high-mountain environments are increasingly fast and complex. GIS-based models of the Swiss Alps show that numerous topographic overdeepenings are likely to appear on progressively exposed glacier beds, which are considered as potential sites of future lake formation. In many cases these newly forming lakes will be situated in an over-steepened and destabilized high-mountain environment and are, therefore, prone to impact waves from landslides. The risk of glacier lake outburst floods, endangering infrastructure, residential areas and persons further downvalley, is increasing with further lake formation and glacier recession. This risk may persist for many decades if not centuries. Future-oriented hazard assessments have to be integrative and must deal with all possible process chains. Reference studies and methodologies are still scarce, however. We present an approach to compare risks resulting from high-mountain lakes in the Swiss Alps amongst each other. Already existing lakes are thereby as much included in the analysis as future ones. The presented risk assessment approach integrates the envisaged high-mountain hazard process chain with present and future socio-economic conditions. Applying the concept of integral risk management, the hazard and damage potentials have to be analyzed. The areas that feature the topographic potential for rock/iceavalanches to reach a lake were analyzed regarding their susceptibility to slope failure including the factors slope inclination, permafrost occurrence, glacier recession and bedrock lithology. Together with the analysis of the lakes (volume and runout path of potential outburst floods), the hazard analysis of the process chain was completed. As an example, high long-term hazard potentials in the Swiss Alps have, for instance, to be expected in the area of the Great Aletsch glacier. A methodology for the assessment of the damage potential was elaborated and will be presented. In order to estimate the location of the largest damage potentials, driving forces of different spatial development scenarios for the Swiss Alps will be implemented in a land allocation model for the Swiss Alps. By bringing together hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses, a risk assessment for the entire Swiss Alps regarding lake-outburst floods triggered by impacts of rock/ice avalanches can be conducted for today, the middle of the century and even beyond.

Future petroleum geologist: discussion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, G.D.

1987-07-01

Robert R. Berg's (1986) article, ''The Future Petroleum Geologist,'' summarizes the findings of the 13-member AAPG Select Committee on The Future Petroleum Geologist appointed by President William L. Fisher in July 1985. While this undertaking is laudable, particularly considering present circumstance in the petroleum industry, the committee has apparently overlooked a vital aspect concerning the future knowledge requirements of the petroleum geologist. Specifically, the Select Committee makes no mention of the need for computer literacy in its list of educational training categories. Obviously, AAPG is well aware of both the interest in computers by its membership and the increasing needmore » for training and familiarity in this discipline. The Select Committee on The Future Petroleum Geologist, while undertaking a difficult and potentially controversial task, has omitted an important aspect of the background requirements for generations of future petroleum geologists; the committee should consider an amendment to their recommendations to reflect this increasingly important field study.« less

Realising their potential? Exploring interprofessional perceptions and potential of the advanced practitioner role: a qualitative analysis

PubMed Central

Powell, Tom; Watkins, Dianne; Kelly, Daniel

2015-01-01

Objectives To explore perceptions of the current practice and future potential of advanced practitioners (APs) from the perspectives of different professional groups in Wales UK. Design A qualitative study consisting of nine focus group interviews. Methods Initially verbatim transcriptions of each focus group interviews were analysed thematically before themes were merged to represent perceptions for the whole data set. Participants Data were gathered from a total of 67 stakeholders—including APs from a variety of professional groups (eg, nursing, physiotherapy, paramedics) as well as managers, workforce developers, educators and medical staff who have a role developing and supporting APs in practice. Results The results are presented in four themes: (1) demand, policy context and future priorities, (2) role clarity and standardisation, (3) agreement and understanding of the role and (4) interprofessional working. The context within which current and future AP roles were considered was influenced by inexorable demands for healthcare and the requirements to meet health policy priorities. Developing AP roles were hampered currently by a lack of shared understanding and ‘joined-up’ working between different groups such as medical practitioners, managers, commissioners and educators. Conclusions For the AP role to flourish more ‘joined-up’ thinking, support and development opportunities are required between APs, managers, senior clinicians, commissioners and educators. Working together to plan and deliver education, innovation and service delivery is of prime importance to meeting ever increasing complex health needs. This will ensure that future APs are adequately prepared and supported to reach their full potential and help deliver necessary innovations in current models of care delivery. PMID:26656024

Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

1999-01-01

We are using a deterministic regression tree analysis model (DISTRIB) and a stochastic migration model (SHIFT) to examine potential distributions of ~66 individual species of eastern US trees under a 2 x CO2 climate change scenario. This process is demonstrated for Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana).

Timber Bamboo Pulp

Treesearch

Troy Runge; Carl Houtman; Alberto Negri; Jackie Heinricher

2013-01-01

Fast-growing biomass, such as bamboo, has the potential to serve an important future role in the pulp and paper industry with potential to both lower resource costs and improve a product’s sustainability. Moso bamboo is particularly interesting due to its fast growth and size, which allows it to be handled and chipped similarly to wood resources. In this study, we will...

Hair dye use and risk of human cancer

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yawei; Kim, Christopher; Zheng, Tongzhang

2016-01-01

Over 50% of the adult population will use hair dyes at some point in their lifetimes. Hair dyes consist of various chemicals and the composition of these chemicals vary by hair dye types. Chemicals p-phenylenediamine and aminophenyl have been suggested as possible carcinogens or mutagens in experimental studies. The scientific community has been interested in this potential public health impact and the results of published epidemiological studies are summarized here. The current evidence provides limited evidences on the association between personal hair dye use and human cancer risk, except for the possibility of hematopoietic cancers and to a lesser extent, bladder cancer. Risk appears to be affected by time period of use and by specific genetic polymorphisms. Future studies should investigate potential gene and environment interaction to assess possible genetic susceptibility. Several methodological issues should also be considered in future studies including completed hair dye use information such as on timing, duration, frequency and type of hair dye product use. PMID:22201892

Hair dye use and risk of human cancer.

PubMed

Zhang, Yawei; Kim, Christopher; Zheng, Tongzhang

2012-01-01

Over 50% of the adult population will use hair dyes at some point in their lifetimes. Hair dyes consist of various chemicals and the composition of these chemicals vary by hair dye types. Chemicals p-phenylenediamine and aminophenyl have been suggested as possible carcinogens or mutagens in experimental studies. The scientific community has been interested in this potential public health impact and the results of published epidemiological studies are summarized here. The current evidence provides limited evidences on the association between personal hair dye use and human cancer risk, except for the possibility of hematopoietic cancers and to a lesser extent, bladder cancer. Risk appears to be affected by time period of use and by specific genetic polymorphisms. Future studies should investigate potential gene and environment interaction to assess possible genetic susceptibility. Several methodological issues should also be considered in future studies including completed hair dye use information such as on timing, duration, frequency and type of hair dye product use.

Climate Change and the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Shrub, Lantana camara L

PubMed Central

Taylor, Subhashni; Kumar, Lalit; Reid, Nick; Kriticos, Darren J.

2012-01-01

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios. PMID:22536408

"Without bodily autonomy we are not free": exploring women's concerns about future access to contraception following the 2016 US presidential election.

PubMed

Judge, Colleen P; Wolgemuth, Tierney E; Hamm, Megan E; Borrero, Sonya

2017-11-01

Following the 2016US presidential election, social media posts and news stories amplified concerns about the potential for reduced access to contraception under the incoming administration and urged women to seek long-acting reversible contraception. We aimed to describe women's concerns about future access to contraception, in their own words. A social-media-based, anonymous online survey assessing thoughts and concerns about future access to contraception was distributed to reproductive-aged US women for 1 week in mid-January 2017. Participants who were concerned about future access to contraception could share their thoughts and feelings in an open-ended comments box. We qualitatively analyzed 449 written responses for content and themes, with the goal of characterizing key concerns. Women who provided written comments had a mean age of 28years; 85% were white, 88% had at least a college degree, and 93% identified as Democratic or Democratic-leaning. Women were highly concerned about future affordability of contraceptive methods due to potential loss of insurance, reduced insurance coverage for contraceptive methods and reduced access to low-cost care at Planned Parenthood. Many also worried about increased restrictions on abortion. Participants' concerns regarding access to contraception and abortion centered around themes of reproductive and bodily autonomy, which women described as fundamental rights. Women in this study expressed considerable fear and uncertainty regarding their future access to contraception and abortion following the 2016US presidential election. The potential for restricted access to affordable contraception and abortion was viewed as an unacceptable limitation on bodily autonomy. As the future of US health care policy is debated, many women are concerned about the impact of policy changes on their ability to access affordable contraception and abortion, which many view as essential to the preservation of bodily and reproductive autonomy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Farming or seasonal migration? - Potential futures of reindeer husbandry in Fennoscandia studied with Social-Ecological System (SES) approach, co-production of knowledge, and scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Käyhkö, Jukka; Horstkotte, Tim; Vehmas, Jarmo; Forbes, Bruce

2017-04-01

The area allocated for reindeer husbandry in Finland, Sweden and Norway covers approximately 40 % of each country. As the livelihood requires large, relatively unfragmented territories while being marginal in terms of direct income, land-use conflicts between various livelihoods and activities, such as forestry, agriculture, mining, energy production, tourism, and nature protection are common phenomena in the region. Simultaneously, rapid societal change, urban exodus and fading traditions as well as climate warming and subsequent ecosystem change may put the livelihood at stake. We have probed potential futures of reindeer husbandry in Northern Fennoscandia using the Social-Ecological System (SES) approach, knowledge co-production in stakeholder-scientist workshops in all three countries, and scenario building based on quantitative data and narratives. Regarding the future of the livelihood, we have identified some crucial components in the SES that are influential in determining the direction of development. We produced four potential pathways of future development and demonstrate that important factors controlling the direction of development include governance and actor relations. Governance is often considered distant and opaque by local stakeholders, fostering conflicts in land allocation, while unclear regulations at local level reinforce emerging conflict situations leading to distrust and restrained communication between the actors. Regionally, these conflicts may lead to decreased resilience and threaten the future of the livelihood altogether. Therefore, research should focus on supporting the reform process of institutional arrangements and governance mechanisms, and fostering co-design and co-production processes that ease distrust and improve resilience of the livelihood in multifunctional landscapes.

Priming, not inhibition, of related concepts during future imagining.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen L; Benoit, Roland G; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-10-01

Remembering the past and imagining the future both involve the retrieval of details stored in episodic memory and rely on the same core network of brain regions. Given these parallels, one might expect similar component processes to be involved in remembering and imagining. While a strong case can be made for the role of inhibition in memory retrieval, few studies have examined whether inhibition is also necessary for future imagining and results to-date have been mixed. In the current study, we test whether related concepts are inhibited during future imagining using a modified priming approach. Participants first generated a list of familiar places and for each place, the people they most strongly associate with it. A week later, participants imagined future events involving recombinations of people and places, immediately followed by a speeded response task in which participants made familiarity decisions about people's names. Across two experiments, our results suggest that related concepts are not inhibited during future imagining, but rather are automatically primed. These results fit with recent work showing that autobiographically significant concepts (e.g., friends' names) are more episodic than semantic in nature, automatically activating related details in memory and potentially fuelling the flexible simulation of future events.

Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

2017-04-01

Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic and drought statistic of the historical data. A multi-objective analysis using basic statistics (mean, standard deviation and asymmetry coefficient) and droughts statistics (duration, magnitude and intensity) has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to reproduce the historical series. The drought statistics have been obtained from the Standard Precipitation index (SPI) series using the Theory of Runs. This analysis allows discriminate the best RCM and the best combination of model and correction technique in the bias-correction method. We have also analyzed the possibilities of using different Stochastic Weather Generators to approximate the basic and droughts statistics of the historical series. These analyses have been performed in our case study in a lumped and in a distributed way in order to assess its sensibility to the spatial scale. The statistic of the future temperature series obtained with different ensemble options are quite homogeneous, but the precipitation shows a higher sensibility to the adopted method and spatial scale. The global increment in the mean temperature values are 31.79 %, 31.79 %, 31.03 % and 31.74 % for the distributed bias-correction, distributed delta-change, lumped bias-correction and lumped delta-change ensembles respectively and in the precipitation they are -25.48 %, -28.49 %, -26.42 % and -27.35% respectively. Acknowledgments: This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study and the R package qmap.

Dynamical systems analysis of phantom dark energy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Nandan; Bhadra, Nivedita

2018-06-01

In this work, we study the dynamical systems analysis of phantom dark energy models considering five different potentials. From the analysis of these five potentials we have found a general parametrization of the scalar field potentials which is obeyed by many other potentials. Our investigation shows that there is only one fixed point which could be the beginning of the universe. However, future destiny has many possible options. A detailed numerical analysis of the system has been presented. The observed late time behaviour in this analysis shows very good agreement with the recent observations.

Transit Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) assessment study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

The United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) is engaged in assessing applications that realize the full potential of connected vehicles, travelers, and infrastructure to enhance current operational practices and transform future surface tra...

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research.

PubMed

Endres, Megan L; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

2015-01-01

We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA's situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yarnall, C.A.; Caruthers, J.R.

This study was performed under FUTURE LOOK, a joint Defense Nuclear Agency/Department of Energy (DNA/DOE) sponsored study. The intent of FUTURE LOOK is to identify and develop means of providing requisite security and survivability to the Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces (NSNF) in the Twenty-First Century. Our current thinking about the future world in Europe is summarized. In this report we develop four scenarios/stockpile cases to cover the spectrum of potential happenings in Europe; we also develop general security and survivability implications and recommendations for each case. The four cases are: (1) a substantially reduced (factor of 2--10) European stockpile; (2) amore » near-zero stockpile, with no Army weapons remaining in Europe; (3) current stockpile in Europe remains; and (4) current stockpile numbers remain, but aggressive modernization is allowed. We plan to use the information in this report to assist in developing detailed security and survivability options as part of our follow-on to FUTURE LOOK studies. 8 refs., 6 tabs.« less

Marine Hydrokinetic Resource Assessment for Domestic Army, Air Force, and Coast Guard Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robichaud, Robi J; Ingram, Michael

NREL/DOE undertook a study for the US Army, Coast Guard and Air Force to investigate the potential for marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices to meet the energy load at coastal bases in the future as MHK technology evolves. A wide range of data from tidal and wave, environmental, shipping, etc. databases were used to screen the DOD bases. A series of scoring algorithms were developed to facilitate site review to lead to eventual down select for more detailed, site specific bathymetric tidal resource evaluation. The Army's Camp Edwards, MA and the Coast Guard's Training Center Cape May, NJ (TRACEN Cape May)more » were selected and the Georgia Institute of Technology performed the analyses. An NREL/DOE MHK team visited the bases to further discuss with the base personnel MHK technology's potential for providing power to the bases in the future and frame the potential impact to existing power systems.« less

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Behind the cycle of violence, beyond abuse history: a brief report on the association of parental attachment to physical child abuse potential.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M; Tucker, Meagan C

2011-01-01

Although the concept of a cycle of violence presumes that the transmission of violence is expressed directly across generations, the role of the overall quality of the parent-child relationship may ultimately be more influential in later parenting behavior. This study investigated whether mothers' poorer attachment to their parents was associated with their current increased child abuse potential and dysfunctional disciplinary style independent of a personal history of child abuse. A sample of 73 at-risk mothers raising children with behavior problems reported on their parental attachment, abuse potential, dysfunctional parenting style, and personal abuse history. An at-risk sample, rather than a sample of identified abuse victims or perpetrators, was studied to better examine the potential continuity or discontinuity from history of abuse to current abuse risk, allowing consideration of those who may break the cycle versus those who potentially initiate abuse in the absence of a personal history. Findings indicate that poor attachment significantly predicted both dysfunctional parenting practices and elevated child abuse potential, controlling for personal child abuse history. Such results highlight the importance of the overall quality of the relationship between the parent and child in potentially shaping future abuse risk. Findings are discussed in terms of continuity or discontinuity in the cycle of violence and future directions for research on attachment in relation to the development of later child abuse risk.

Time perspective as a predictor of smoking status: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia.

PubMed

Sansone, Genevieve; Fong, Geoffrey T; Hall, Peter A; Guignard, Romain; Beck, François; Mons, Ute; Pötschke-Langer, Martina; Yong, Hua-Hie; Thompson, Mary E; Omar, Maizurah; Jiang, Yuan

2013-04-15

Prior studies have demonstrated that time perspective-the propensity to consider short-versus long-term consequences of one's actions-is a potentially important predictor of health-related behaviors, including smoking. However, most prior studies have been conducted within single high-income countries. The aim of this study was to examine whether time perspective was associated with the likelihood of being a smoker or non-smoker across five countries that vary in smoking behavior and strength of tobacco control policies. The data were from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in five countries with large probability samples of both smokers (N=10,341) and non-smokers (N=4,955): Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia. The surveys were conducted between 2005-2008. Survey respondents indicated their smoking status (smoker vs. non-smoker) and time perspective (future oriented vs. not future-oriented) and provided demographic information. Across all five countries, non-smokers were significantly more likely to be future-oriented (66%) than were smokers (57%), χ(2)(1, N = 15,244) = 120.64, p < .001. This bivariate relationship between time perspective and smoking status held in a multivariate analysis. After controlling for country, age, sex, income, education, and ethnicity (language in France), those who were future-oriented had 36% greater odds of being a non-smoker than a smoker (95% CI: 1.22 to 1.51, p<.001). These findings establish time perspective as an important predictor of smoking status across multiple countries and suggest the potential value of incorporating material to enhance future orientation in smoking cessation interventions.

Time perspective as a predictor of smoking status: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Prior studies have demonstrated that time perspective—the propensity to consider short-versus long-term consequences of one’s actions—is a potentially important predictor of health-related behaviors, including smoking. However, most prior studies have been conducted within single high-income countries. The aim of this study was to examine whether time perspective was associated with the likelihood of being a smoker or non-smoker across five countries that vary in smoking behavior and strength of tobacco control policies. Methods The data were from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in five countries with large probability samples of both smokers (N=10,341) and non-smokers (N=4,955): Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia. The surveys were conducted between 2005–2008. Survey respondents indicated their smoking status (smoker vs. non-smoker) and time perspective (future oriented vs. not future-oriented) and provided demographic information. Results Across all five countries, non-smokers were significantly more likely to be future-oriented (66%) than were smokers (57%), χ2(1, N = 15,244) = 120.64, p < .001. This bivariate relationship between time perspective and smoking status held in a multivariate analysis. After controlling for country, age, sex, income, education, and ethnicity (language in France), those who were future-oriented had 36% greater odds of being a non-smoker than a smoker (95% CI: 1.22 to 1.51, p<.001). Conclusion These findings establish time perspective as an important predictor of smoking status across multiple countries and suggest the potential value of incorporating material to enhance future orientation in smoking cessation interventions. PMID:23587205

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

P. Persoff

The evaluation of impacts of potential volcanic eruptions on populations and facilities far in the future may involve detailed volcanological studies that differ from traditional hazards analyses. The proximity of Quaternary volcanoes to a proposed repository for disposal of the USA's high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has required in-depth study of probability and consequences of basaltic igneous activity. Because of the underground nature of the repository, evaluation of the potential effects of dike intrusion and interaction with the waste packages stored in underground tunnels (dnfts) as well as effects of eruption and ash dispersal have been important. Thesemore » studies include analyses of dike propagation, dike-drift intersection, flow of magma into dnfts, heat and volcanic gas migration, atmospheric dispersal of tephra, and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra by surficial processes. Unlike traditional volcanic hazards studies that focus on impacts on housing, transportation, communications, etc. (to name a small subset), the igneous consequences studies at Yucca Mountain have focused on evaluation of igneous impacts on nuclear waste packages and implications for enhanced radioactive dose on a hypothetical future ({le} 10000 yrs) local population. Potential exposure pathways include groundwater (affected by in-situ degradation of waste packages by igneous heat and corrosion) and inhalation, ingestion, and external exposure due to deposition and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra.« less

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

40 CFR 194.25 - Future state assumptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to future climate cycles... any compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to... changes to geologic conditions, including, but not limited to: Dissolution; near surface geomorphic...

40 CFR 194.25 - Future state assumptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to future climate cycles... any compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to... changes to geologic conditions, including, but not limited to: Dissolution; near surface geomorphic...

40 CFR 194.25 - Future state assumptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to future climate cycles... any compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to... changes to geologic conditions, including, but not limited to: Dissolution; near surface geomorphic...

40 CFR 194.25 - Future state assumptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to future climate cycles... any compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to... changes to geologic conditions, including, but not limited to: Dissolution; near surface geomorphic...

40 CFR 194.25 - Future state assumptions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to future climate cycles... any compliance application, to the extent practicable, the effects of potential changes to... changes to geologic conditions, including, but not limited to: Dissolution; near surface geomorphic...

Shared-Ride Taximeters : State-of-the-Art and Future Potential

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-05-01

This report describes shared-ride taximeter equipment and operating issues and then identifies the state-of-the-art and the future potential for shared-ride taximeter services. Data were collected as the evaluation contractor to the jointly sponsored...

Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashani, A. K.

1980-01-01

Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

Urban airshed modeling of air quality impacts of alternative transportation fuel use in Los Angeles and Atlanta

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

This report documents a photochemical modeling study of the potential impacts on air quality of future emissions from alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The main objective of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in supporting this study is ...

Feasibility Study of Training Environmental Technicians. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vernon, James Y.; Garrett, Donald M.

A feasibility study and task analysis was performed to determine the future job potential within the Southern California area for environmental technicians trained under a proposed vocational training program in community colleges. Questionnaires were mailed to possible employers in government and industry to obtain information about their…

Potential Changes in Tree Species Richness and Forest Community Types following Climate Change

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2001-01-01

Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types were evaluated for the eastern United States according to five scenarios of future climate change resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). DISTRIB, an empirical model that uses a regression tree analysis approach, was used to generate suitable habitat, or potential future...

Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future MEGA City: Case Study Ahmedabad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-06-01

The study of urban areas and their development focuses on cities, their physical and demographic expansion and the tensions and impacts that go along with urban growth. Especially in developing countries and emerging national economies like India, consistent and up to date information or other planning relevant data all too often is not available. With its Smart Cities Mission, the Indian government places great importance on the future developments of Indian urban areas and pays tribute to the large-scale rural to urban migration. The potentials of urban remote sensing and its contribution to urban planning are discussed and related to the Indian Smart Cities Mission. A case study is presented showing urban remote sensing based information products for the city of Ahmedabad. Resulting urban growth scenarios are presented, hotspots identified and future action alternatives proposed.

Projecting Age-Stratified Risk of Exposure to Inland Flooding and Wildfire Smoke in the United States under Two Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Mills, David; Jones, Russell; Wobus, Cameron; Ekstrom, Julia; Jantarasami, Lesley; St Juliana, Alexis; Crimmins, Allison

2018-04-17

The public health community readily recognizes flooding and wildfires as climate-related health hazards, but few studies quantify changes in risk of exposure, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. This study quantifies future populations potentially exposed to inland flooding and wildfire smoke under two climate scenarios, highlighting the populations in particularly vulnerable age groups (≤4 y old and ≥65 y old). Spatially explicit projections of inland flooding and wildfire under two representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) are integrated with static (2010) and dynamic (2050 and 2090) age-stratified projections of future contiguous U.S. populations at the county level. In both 2050 and 2090, an additional one-third of the population will live in areas affected by larger and more frequent inland flooding under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. Approximately 15 million children and 25 million older adults could avoid this increased risk of flood exposure each year by 2090 under a moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5 compared with RCP8.5). We also find reduced exposure to wildfire smoke under the moderate mitigation scenario. Nearly 1 million young children and 1.7 million older adults would avoid exposure to wildfire smoke each year under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. By integrating climate-driven hazard and population projections, newly created county-level exposure maps identify locations of potential significant future public health risk. These potential exposure results can help inform actions to prevent and prepare for associated future adverse health outcomes, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2594.

75 FR 9232 - Measuring Progress on Food Safety: Current Status and Future Directions; Public Workshop

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-01

... for assessing progress in food safety and associated methodological issues and to discuss potential.... The FoodNet also conducts special studies to determine risk factors for acquiring those illnesses... production, studies on the prevalence of specific pathogens in specific classes of food, and studies of...

Energy Systems Integration News | Energy Systems Integration Facility |

Science.gov Websites

power grid modeling scenarios Study Shows Eastern U.S. Power Grid Can Support Upwards of 30% Wind and newly released Eastern Renewable Energy Integration Study (ERGIS) shows that the power grid of the -based study of four potential wind and PV futures and associated operational impacts in the Eastern

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

[Migration. Opportunities for recruitment of skilled employees in the care sector].

PubMed

Braeseke, G; Merda, M; Bauer, T K; Otten, S; Stroka, M A; Talmann, A E

2013-08-01

A central objective of this study was to estimate the potential workforce for the elderly care sector in Germany and to compare it with the predicted demand for nurses in 2030. The authors describe the opportunities and obstacles in recruiting skilled professionals from EU member states and from countries outside the EU. Different scenarios of how to raise labor input are discussed so as to determine the domestic potential until 2030 in Germany. The results show that only by assuming unrealistic conditions, e. g., expectations of a high full-time working quota or far more working women, can the domestic potential meet the predicted future demands. Therefore, Germany's chances of attracting skilled foreign workers were assessed by analyzing wage differentials, unemployment probabilities, demographic developments, and professional and cultural aspects between the countries. A major finding study is that the German labor market cannot provide enough nursing care professionals for the elderly care sector by 2030. Secondly, most of the other EU member states are facing similar challenges, at least in the long run. Therefore, it is recommendable to intensify collaboration with populous Asian countries in the future.

Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2010-08-27

Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century AD. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change.

Usage of Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (MMRTGs) for Future Potential Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, June F.; Cairns-Gallimore, Dirk; Otting, Bill; Johnson, Steve; Woerner, Dave

2016-01-01

The goal of NASAs Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), evaluates the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This presentation focuses on the needs of the mission community and provides users a better understanding of how to integrate the MMRTG (Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator).

Will our children be healthy adults? Applying science to public health policy.

PubMed

Law, Catherine

2010-12-01

Cardiovascular disease is predicted to be a leading cause of death and disability worldwide for the foreseeable future. Observational studies link a variety of prevalent early life experiences (for example, smoking in pregnancy, child poverty) to increased risk of adult cardiovascular disease. Experimental animal studies suggest plausible causal relationships. However, there has been little consideration of how to use this wealth of information to benefit children's futures. Policy documents have drawn on research evidence to recognise that early experience influences life chances, the development of human capital, and long-term health. This has led to a general policy emphasis on prevention and early intervention. To date, there are few examples of the evidence base being useful in shaping specific policies, despite potential to do so, and some examples of policy misunderstanding of science. Minor changes to the perspectives of epidemiological research in this area might greatly increase the potential for evidence-based policy.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

An Adjoint-Based Analysis of the Sampling Footprints of Tall Tower, Aircraft and Potential Future Lidar Observations of CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andrews, Arlyn; Kawa, Randy; Zhu, Zhengxin; Burris, John; Abshire, Jim

2004-01-01

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future CO2 levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an 'inverse problem', where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from longterm surface and aircraft monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. We have recently developed an adjoint for the GSFC 3-D Parameterized Chemistry and Transport Model (PCTM). Here, we will present results from a PCTM Adjoint study comparing the sampling footprints of tall tower, aircraft and potential future lidar observations of CO2. The vertical resolution and extent of the profiles and the observation frequency will be considered for several sites in North America.

Past, present and future targets for immunotherapy in ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Schwab, Carlton L; English, Diana P; Roque, Dana M; Pasternak, Monica; Santin, Alessandro D

2015-01-01

Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of death from gynecologic malignancy in the US. Treatments have improved with conventional cytotoxic chemotherapy and advanced surgical techniques but disease recurrence is common and fatal in nearly all cases. Current evidence suggests that the immune system and its ability to recognize and eliminate microscopic disease is paramount in preventing recurrence. Ovarian cancer immunotherapy is targeting tumors through active, passive and adoptive approaches. The goal of immunotherapy is to balance the activation of the immune system against cancer while preventing the potential for tremendous toxicity elicited by immune modulation. In this paper we will review the different immunotherapies available for ovarian cancer as well as current ongoing studies and potential future directions. PMID:25524384

Theory of Gas Adsorption in Carbon Nanostructures

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-05-20

Johnson, "Histogram reweighting and finite size Scaling study of the Lennard - Jones fluids", Fluid Phase Equilibria, 187-188, 171-191 (2001). 19.Wei...nature of matter, with enormous potential for applications. The research continues, undiminished in intensity, in our laboratories and many others...pair potential is needed than the usually assumed free space interaction. These calculations suggest a few possible directions for future research

Examining the Potential Impact of Full Tuition Fees on Mature Part-Time Students in English Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Angela

2014-01-01

This paper examines current part-time mature learners' views on the potential impact upon future students as full fees are introduced from 2012. It investigates the problems which part-time mature learners may face with the advent of student loans and subsequent debt, given that they are usually combining complex lives with their studies, with…

Educators' Rating of Strategies Considered Necessary for Motivation of Potential Entrepreneurs among Secondary School Students for Poverty Alleviation in Anambra State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okoli, Constance. I.; Igwegbe, Angela I.

2015-01-01

Timely planning and strategizing for the future had remained the major strength of wealthy nations; who in a bid to unleash their full development potentials, have set up educational programmes, necessary to fight poverty in all its ramifications. This study aimed at assessing strategies considered necessary for the motivation of potential…

The morality of abortion and the deprivation of futures

PubMed Central

Brown, M.

2000-01-01

In an influential essay entitled Why abortion is wrong, Donald Marquis argues that killing actual persons is wrong because it unjustly deprives victims of their future; that the fetus has a future similar in morally relevant respects to the future lost by competent adult homicide victims, and that, as consequence, abortion is justifiable only in the same circumstances in which killing competent adult human beings is justifiable.1 The metaphysical claim implicit in the first premise, that actual persons have a future of value, is ambiguous. The Future Like Ours argument (FLO) would be valid if "future of value" were used consistently to mean either "potential future of value" or "self-represented future of value", and FLO would be sound if one or the other interpretation supported both the moral claim and the metaphysical claim, but if, as I argue, any interpretation which makes the argument valid renders it unsound, then FLO must be rejected. Its apparent strength derives from equivocation on the concept of "a future of value". Key Words: Abortion • Future Like Ours • Donald Marquis • potentiality • pro-choice PMID:10786320

An early glimpse at long-term subsonic commercial turbofan technology requirements. [fuel conservation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gray, D. E.; Dugan, J. F.

1975-01-01

This paper reports on the exploratory investigation and initial findings of the study of future turbofan concepts to conserve fuel. To date, these studies have indicated a potential reduction in cruise thrust specific fuel consumption in 1990 turbofans of approximately 15% relative to present day new engines through advances in internal aerodynamics, structure-mechanics, and materials. Advanced materials also offer the potential for fuel savings through engine weight reduction. Further studies are required to balance fuel consumption reduction with sound airlines operational economics.

Everything under the Sun: A review of solar neutrinos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gann, Gabriel D. Orebi

2015-07-15

Solar neutrinos offer a unique opportunity to study the interaction of neutrinos with matter, a sensitive search for potential new physics effects, and a probe of solar structure and solar system formation. This paper describes the broad physics program addressed by solar neutrino studies, presents the current suite of experiments programs, and describes several potential future detectors that could address the open questions in this field. This paper is a summary of a talk presented at the Neutrino 2014 conference in Boston.

Everything under the sun: A review of solar neutrinos

DOE PAGES

Gann, Gabriel D. Orebi

2015-07-15

Solar neutrinos offer a unique opportunity to study the interaction of neutrinos with matter, a sensitive search for potential new physics effects, and a probe of solar structure and solar system formation. This paper describes the broad physics program addressed by solar neutrino studies, presents the current suite of experiments programs, and describes several potential future detectors that could address the open questions in this field. This paper is a summary of a talk presented at the Neutrino 2014 conference in Boston.

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been widely used for assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively.

Formative research to identify perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students: Implications for future health communication campaigns

PubMed Central

Case, Kathleen; Crook, Brittani; Lazard, Allison; Mackert, Michael

2016-01-01

Objective This formative study examined perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students with the goal of informing future health communication campaigns. Differences between e-cigarette users and nonusers were also examined. Participants: Thirty undergraduate students were recruited from a large southwestern public university (15 users, 15 nonusers). Methods Structured interviews were conducted and transcripts were coded for themes. Results Although users had more favorable attitudes toward e-cigarettes, both users and nonusers believed that e-cigarettes produce water vapor and reported that e-cigarettes were less harmful than conventional cigarettes. Potential health consequences and addiction concerns were the most common perceived threats for both users and nonusers. Both nonusers and users cited social stigma as a perceived disadvantage of e-cigarette use. Conclusions Ultimately, themes with particular relevance to future health communication campaigns included negative perceptions of e-cigarette users and social stigma, as well as harm perceptions and potential health consequences associated with e-cigarette use. PMID:26979833

Methane Hydrate Field Program. Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collett, Tim; Bahk, Jang-Jun; Frye, Matt

2013-12-31

This topical report represents a pathway toward better understanding of the impact of marine methane hydrates on safety and seafloor stability and future collection of data that can be used by scientists, engineers, managers and planners to study climate change and to assess the feasibility of marine methane hydrate as a potential future energy resource. Our understanding of the occurrence, distribution and characteristics of marine methane hydrates is incomplete; therefore, research must continue to expand if methane hydrates are to be used as a future energy source. Exploring basins with methane hydrates has been occurring for over 30 years, butmore » these efforts have been episodic in nature. To further our understanding, these efforts must be more regular and employ new techniques to capture more data. This plan identifies incomplete areas of methane hydrate research and offers solutions by systematically reviewing known methane hydrate “Science Challenges” and linking them with “Technical Challenges” and potential field program locations.« less

Formative research to identify perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students: Implications for future health communication campaigns.

PubMed

Case, Kathleen; Crook, Brittani; Lazard, Allison; Mackert, Michael

2016-07-01

This formative study examined perceptions of e-cigarettes in college students with the goal of informing future health communication campaigns. Differences between e-cigarette users and nonusers were also examined. Thirty undergraduate students were recruited from a large southwestern public university (15 users, 15 nonusers). Structured interviews were conducted and transcripts were coded for themes. Although users had more favorable attitudes toward e-cigarettes, both users and nonusers believed that e-cigarettes produce water vapor and reported that e-cigarettes were less harmful than conventional cigarettes. Potential health consequences and addiction concerns were the most common perceived threats for both users and nonusers. Both nonusers and users cited social stigma as a perceived disadvantage of e-cigarette use. Ultimately, themes with particular relevance to future health communication campaigns included negative perceptions of e-cigarette users and social stigma, as well as harm perceptions and potential health consequences associated with e-cigarette use.

Alternative Models for the ERIC Clearinghouse Network.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenwood, P. W.; Weiler, D. M.

The National Center for Educational Communication (NCEC) contracted with Rand to develop a range of potential objectives and structures for the Educational Resources Information Center (ERIC) system that could render it more effective in the future. The Rand study team surveyed the scope and sources of education literature and studied the…

Changing Housing Patterns in Metropolitan Washington

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grier, George; Grier, Eunice

1975-01-01

This testimony, before a public hearing of the New York City Commission on Human Rights in May 1974, summarizes extensive studies of changing minority residential patterns in metropolitan Washington and less extensive studies of other groups; the prospects for future desegregation and for using the growing economic potential of minority families…

Supporting Adaptive Learning Pathways through the Use of Learning Analytics: Developments, Challenges and Future Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mavroudi, Anna; Giannakos, Michail; Krogstie, John

2018-01-01

Learning Analytics (LA) and adaptive learning are inextricably linked since they both foster technology-supported learner-centred education. This study identifies developments focusing on their interplay and emphasises insufficiently investigated directions which display a higher innovation potential. Twenty-one peer-reviewed studies are…

Deciding Factors: Do Factors beyond Achievement Influence Teachers' Student Placement Decisions?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riley, Tasha

2014-01-01

Since teachers' decisions potentially have consequences for learners' future educational and life opportunities, it is imperative to determine the basis of teachers' decision-making in order to determine whether it is discriminatory. This study combines qualitative and quantitative methods towards a multi-school, multi-region study of Australian…

Studying Teachers and Schools: Michael Pressley's Legacy and Directions for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohan, Lindsey; Lundeberg, Mary A.; Reffitt, Kelly

2008-01-01

Much of Michael Pressley's work during the past decade focused on the nature of highly effective, engaging literacy instruction. Michael Pressley believed that studying effective teachers and schools had the potential to influence more engaging and effective teaching, especially in underresourced schools. First, we describe the grounded…

The Relationship of Future Agricultural Extension Educators' Cognitive Styles and Change Strategies for Adult Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strong, Robert; Irani, Tracy

2011-01-01

The study expands reported here Extension education's knowledge regarding characteristics of potential change agents. Graduate students learning to become agricultural Extension educators were studied to determine their definition of a change agent. Participants' cognitive styles were assessed using Kirton's Adaptation-Innovation Inventory to…

Emerging issues and future directions of the field of health communication.

PubMed

Hannawa, Annegret F; Kreps, Gary L; Paek, Hye-Jin; Schulz, Peter J; Smith, Sandi; Street, Richard L

2014-01-01

The interdisciplinary intersections between communication science and health-related fields are pervasive, with numerous differences in regard to epistemology, career planning, funding perspectives, educational goals, and cultural orientations. This article identifies and elaborates on these challenges with illustrative examples. Furthermore, concrete suggestions for future scholarship are recommended to facilitate compatible, coherent, and interdisciplinary health communication inquiry. The authors hope that this article helps current and future generations of health communication scholars to make more informed decisions when facing some of the challenges discussed in this article so that they will be able to seize the interdisciplinary and international potential of this unique and important field of study.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

Effect of refining variables on the properties and composition of JP-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lieberman, M.; Taylor, W. F.

1980-01-01

Potential future problem areas that could arise from changes in the composition, properties, and potential availability of JP-5 produced in the near future are identified. Potential fuel problems concerning thermal stability, lubricity, low temperature flow, combustion, and the effect of the use of specific additives on fuel properties and performance are discussed. An assessment of available crudes and refinery capabilities is given.

Research Priorities for Studies Linking Intake of Low-Calorie Sweeteners and Potentially Related Health Outcomes

PubMed Central

Bright, Oliver-John M; Wang, Ding Ding; Shams-White, Marissa; Bleich, Sara N; Foreyt, John; Franz, Marion; Johnson, Guy; Manning, Beth Trickett; Mattes, Rick; Pi-Sunyer, Xavier; Schneeman, Barbara; Parrott, James Scott; Steffen, Dan; Sylvetsky, Allison; Ziegler, Paula

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: In a world of finite research funding, efforts to prioritize future research topics are increasingly necessary. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify and prioritize the direction of future research in the broad area of low-calorie sweetener (LCS) intake and potentially related health outcomes by using a novel method that incorporates evidence mapping in the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Future Research Needs (FRN) process. Methods: A diverse expert stakeholder panel was convened and engaged to identify research gaps and prioritize future research needs. An independent research team hosted a number of interactive webinars and elicited feedback through surveys and individual interviews with the stakeholder panel, which included policymakers, lay audience members, health providers, a research funder, individuals with food industry experience, and researchers of several different specialties. Results: The stakeholder panel generated and ranked a list of 18 FRN questions across 5 broad research areas. Overall, stakeholder panel members unanimously agreed that the research questions that will have the largest public health impact are those that address outcomes related to body weight, appetite, and dietary intake. Although the LCSs included in this FRN project have all been Generally Recognized as Safe by the FDA or approved as food additives, the recurrent concerns and confusions with regard to the “safety” of LCSs by consumers underscore the importance of communicating the science to the general public. Conclusion: Our project provides evidence that engaging a diverse expert stakeholder panel is an effective method of translating gaps in nutrition research into prioritized areas of future research.

NASA RPS Program Overview: A Focus on RPS Users

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamley, John A.; Sutliff, Thomas J.; Sandifer, Carl E., II; Zakrajsek, June F.

2016-01-01

The goal of NASA's Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program is to make RPS ready and available to support the exploration of the solar system in environments where the use of conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible to meet the needs of the missions. To meet this goal, the RPS Program, working closely with the Department of Energy, performs mission and system studies (such as the recently released Nuclear Power Assessment Study), assesses the readiness of promising technologies to infuse in future generators, assesses the sustainment of key RPS capabilities and knowledge, forecasts and tracks the Programs budgetary needs, and disseminates current information about RPS to the community of potential users. This process has been refined and used to determine the current content of the RPS Programs portfolio. This portfolio currently includes an effort to mature advanced thermoelectric technology for possible integration into an enhanced Multi-Mission Radioisotope Generator (eMMRTG), sustainment and production of the currently deployed MMRTG, and technology investments that could lead to a future Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). This paper describes the program planning processes that have been used, the currently available MMRTG, and one of the potential future systems, the eMMRTG.

Cancer Risks Associated with External Radiation From Diagnostic Imaging Procedures

PubMed Central

Linet, Martha S.; Slovis, Thomas L.; Miller, Donald L.; Kleinerman, Ruth; Lee, Choonsik; Rajaraman, Preetha; de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington

2012-01-01

The 600% increase in medical radiation exposure to the US population since 1980 has provided immense benefit, but potential future cancer risks to patients. Most of the increase is from diagnostic radiologic procedures. The objectives of this review are to summarize epidemiologic data on cancer risks associated with diagnostic procedures, describe how exposures from recent diagnostic procedures relate to radiation levels linked with cancer occurrence, and propose a framework of strategies to reduce radiation from diagnostic imaging in patients. We briefly review radiation dose definitions, mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis, key epidemiologic studies of medical and other radiation sources and cancer risks, and dose trends from diagnostic procedures. We describe cancer risks from experimental studies, future projected risks from current imaging procedures, and the potential for higher risks in genetically susceptible populations. To reduce future projected cancers from diagnostic procedures, we advocate widespread use of evidence-based appropriateness criteria for decisions about imaging procedures, oversight of equipment to deliver reliably the minimum radiation required to attain clinical objectives, development of electronic lifetime records of imaging procedures for patients and their physicians, and commitment by medical training programs, professional societies, and radiation protection organizations to educate all stakeholders in reducing radiation from diagnostic procedures. PMID:22307864

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2016-01-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr−1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr−1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-03-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of halogenated aromatics/aliphatics and nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics on estimating the persistence of future pharmaceutical compounds using a modified QSAR model.

PubMed

Lim, Seung Joo; Fox, Peter

2014-02-01

The effects of halogenated aromatics/aliphatics and nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics on estimating the persistence of future pharmaceutical compounds were investigated using a modified half life equation. The potential future pharmaceutical compounds investigated were approximately 2000 pharmaceutical drugs currently undergoing the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) testing. EPI Suite (BIOWIN) model estimates the fates of compounds based on the biodegradability under aerobic conditions. While BIOWIN considered the biodegradability of a compound only, the half life equation used in this study was modified by biodegradability, sorption and cometabolic oxidation. It was possible that the potential future pharmaceutical compounds were more accurately estimated using the modified half life equation. The modified half life equation considered sorption and cometabolic oxidation of halogenated aromatic/aliphatics and nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics in the sub-surface, while EPI Suite (BIOWIN) did not. Halogenated aliphatics in chemicals were more persistent than halogenated aromatics in the sub-surface. In addition, in the sub-surface environment, the fates of organic chemicals were much more affected by halogenation in chemicals than by nitrogen(N)-heterocyclic aromatics. © 2013.

Geospatial intelligence and visual classification of environmentally observed species in the Future Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbab-Zavar, B.; Chakravarthy, A.; Sabeur, Z. A.

2012-04-01

The rapid development of advanced smart communication tools with good quality and resolution video cameras, audio and GPS devices in the last few years shall lead to profound impacts on the way future environmental observations are conducted and accessed by communities. The resulting large scale interconnections of these "Future Internet Things" form a large environmental sensing network which will generate large volumes of quality environmental observations and at highly localised spatial scales. This enablement in environmental sensing at local scales will be of great importance to contribute in the study of fauna and flora in the near future, particularly on the effect of climate change on biodiversity in various regions of Europe and beyond. The Future Internet could also potentially become the de facto information space to provide participative real-time sensing by communities and improve our situation awarness of the effect of climate on local environments. In the ENVIROFI(2011-2013) Usage Area project in the FP7 FI-PPP programme, a set of requirements for specific (and generic) enablers is achieved with the potential establishement of participating community observatories of the future. In particular, the specific enablement of interest concerns the building of future interoperable services for the management of environmental data intelligently with tagged contextual geo-spatial information generated by multiple operators in communities (Using smart phones). The classification of observed species in the resulting images is achieved with structured data pre-processing, semantic enrichement using contextual geospatial information, and high level fusion with controlled uncertainty estimations. The returned identification of species is further improved using future ground truth corrections and learning by the specific enablers.

Disturbance Distance: Combining a process based ecosystem model and remote sensing data to map the vulnerability of U.S. forested ecosystems to potentially altered disturbance rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, K. A.

2015-12-01

Disturbance plays a critical role in shaping the structure and function of forested ecosystems as well as the ecosystem services they provide, including but not limited to: carbon storage, biodiversity habitat, water quality and flow, and land atmosphere exchanges of energy and water. In addition, recent studies suggest that disturbance rates may increase in the future under altered climate and land use scenarios. Thus understanding how vulnerable forested ecosystems are to potential changes in disturbance rates is of high importance. This study calculated the theoretical threshold rate of disturbance for which forest ecosystems could no longer be sustained (λ*) across the Coterminous U.S. using an advanced process based ecosystem model (ED). Published rates of disturbance (λ) in 50 study sites were obtained from the North American Forest Disturbance (NAFD) program. Disturbance distance (λ* - λ) was calculated for each site by differencing the model based threshold under current climate conditions and average observed rates of disturbance over the last quarter century. Preliminary results confirm all sample forest sites have current average rates of disturbance below λ*, but there were interesting patterns in the recorded disturbance distances. In general western sites had much smaller disturbance distances, suggesting higher vulnerability to change, while eastern sites showed larger buffers. Ongoing work is being conducted to assess the vulnerability of these sites in the context of potential future changes by propagating scenarios of future climate and land-use change through the analysis.

ROLE OF YOGA IN THE TREATMENT OF NEUROTIC DISORDERS: CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

PubMed Central

Grover, Poonam; Varma, V.K.; Pershad, D.; Verma, S.K.

1994-01-01

A large number of studies have consistently demonstrated the potential of yoga, not only in the treatment of psychiatric and psychosomatic disorder but also in promoting positive physical and mental health. This paper reviews various studies on the treatment of neurosis with techniques derived from yoga. A few lacunae have been identified and possible directions for future research are outlined. It is hoped that research along these lines will develop a standardized method of yoga therapy which can be utilized and integrated within the existing methods of treatment of neurotic disorders. PMID:21743694

Investigating consumers' and informal carers' views and preferences for consumer directed care: A discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Kaambwa, Billingsley; Lancsar, Emily; McCaffrey, Nicola; Chen, Gang; Gill, Liz; Cameron, Ian D; Crotty, Maria; Ratcliffe, Julie

2015-09-01

Consumer directed care (CDC) is currently being embraced internationally as a means to promote autonomy and choice for consumers (people aged 65 and over) receiving community aged care services (CACSs). CDC involves giving CACS clients (consumers and informal carers of consumers) control over how CACSs are administered. However, CDC models have largely developed in the absence of evidence on clients' views and preferences. We explored CACS clients' preferences for a variety of CDC attributes and identified factors that may influence these preferences and potentially inform improved design of future CDC models. Study participants were clients of CACSs delivered by five Australian providers. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) approach undertaken in a group setting between June and December 2013, we investigated the relative importance to CACS consumers and informal (family) carers of gradations relating to six salient features of CDC (choice of service provider(s), budget management, saving unused/unspent funds, choice of support/care worker(s), support-worker flexibility and level of contact with service coordinator). The DCE data were analysed using conditional, mixed and generalised logit regression models, accounting for preference and scale heterogeneity. Mean ages for 117 study participants were 80 years (87 consumers) and 74 years (30 informal carers). All participants preferred a CDC approach that allowed them to: save unused funds from a CACS package for future use; have support workers that were flexible in terms of changing activities within their CACS care plan and; choose the support workers that provide their day-to-day CACSs. The CDC attributes found to be important to both consumers and informal carers receiving CACSs will inform the design of future CDC models of service delivery. The DCE approach used in this study has the potential for wide applicability and facilitates the assessment of preferences for elements of potential future aged care service delivery not yet available in policy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

2015-08-15

Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Simulated climate change conditions unveil the toxic potential of the fungicide pyrimethanil on the midge Chironomus riparius: a multigeneration experiment

PubMed Central

Müller, Ruth; Seeland, Anne; Jagodzinski, Lucas S; Diogo, Joao B; Nowak, Carsten; Oehlmann, Jörg

2012-01-01

Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future. PMID:22408736

Deepwater Horizon NRDA Injury Assessment | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

Science.gov Websites

organisms. Oil can kill organisms or have effects on future generations. Potential long-term harmful effects systems. We conducted hundreds of scientific studies to determine whether there have been negative effects

A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

2012-12-01

There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

[Dispositional optimism, pessimism and realism in technological potential entrepreneurs].

PubMed

López Puga, Jorge; García García, Juan

2011-11-01

Optimism has been classically considered a key trait in entrepreneurs' personality but it has been studied from a psychological point of view only in recent years. The main aim of this research is to study the relationship between dispositional optimism, pessimism and realism as a function of the tendency to create technology-based businesses. A sample of undergraduate students (n= 205) filled in an electronic questionnaire containing the Life Orientation Test-Revised after they were classified as potential technological entrepreneurs, potential general entrepreneurs and non-potential entrepreneurs. Our results show that technology-based entrepreneurs are more optimistic than non-potential entrepreneurs, whereas there were no statistical differences in pessimism and realism. The results are interpreted theoretically to define the potential entrepreneur and, from an applied perspective, to design training programmes to support future technological entrepreneurs.

Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change.

PubMed

Murdock, C C; Sternberg, E D; Thomas, M B

2016-06-21

Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51-89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings.

Future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Goodby, Emmeline; MacLeod, Andrew K

2016-06-01

This study employed the Future Thinking Task (MacLeod et al., 2005, Br. J. Clin. Psychol., 44, 495) to investigate whether future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis is significantly different from that of matched controls, and to identify its correlates in this patient group. Cross-sectional, mixed-model, case-control design. Participants were 30 patients with first-episode psychosis and 27 matched controls. The Future Thinking Task was used to assess future-directed thinking in both groups. Anxiety and depression were also measured as well as self-report measures of hopelessness, suicide ideation and a measure of negative symptoms. Individuals with psychosis were impaired in future-directed thinking in both positive and negative domains, particularly with respect to the coming year. Increased self-reported hopelessness was associated with reduced positive future thinking and increased negative future thinking. Increased positive future thinking was also associated with reduced severity of negative symptoms, whilst negative future thinking was associated with suicide ideation. Individuals with first-episode psychosis show a reduction in positive future thinking in line with that seen in other clinical groups, but this is accompanied by an unexpected reduction in negative future thinking. The findings suggest a general disengagement with the future in this group that may affect recovery and functioning. Individuals with first-episode psychosis may benefit from interventions to help them engage with their future, in particular in the mid-range, up to 1 year. The Future Thinking Task may be a helpful addition to the assessment of suicide risk in those with first-episode psychosis. Decreased positive future thinking was associated with increased severity of negative symptoms, indicating a potential new treatment angle for this resistant aspect of psychosis. The cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for conclusions about the causal relationship between psychosis and future-directed thinking. This study investigated future-directed thinking in individuals with a range of psychotic illnesses employing a trans-diagnostic approach; therefore, conclusions cannot be drawn about the nature of future-directed thinking in individual psychotic disorders. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

An investigation of trends in precious metal and copper content of RAM modules in WEEE: Implications for long term recycling potential.

PubMed

Charles, Rhys Gareth; Douglas, Peter; Hallin, Ingrid Liv; Matthews, Ian; Liversage, Gareth

2017-02-01

Precious metal (PM) and copper content of dynamic-RAM modules placed on the market during 1991-2008 has been analysed by AAS following comminution and acid digestion. Linear regression analysis of compositional data ordered according to sample chronology was used to identify historic temporal trends in module composition resulting from changes in manufacturing practices, and to project future trends for use in more accurate assessment of future recycling potential. DRAM was found to be 'high grade' waste with: stable levels of gold and silver over time; 80% reduction in palladium content during 1991-2008; and 0.23g/module/year increase in copper content with a 75% projected increase from 2008 by 2020. The accuracy of future recycling potential projections for WEEE using current methods based on static compositional data from current devices is questionable due to likely changes in future device composition. The impact on recycling potential projections of waste laptops, smart phones, cell phones and tablets arising in Europe in 2020 resulting from a 75% increase in copper content is considered against existing projections using static compositional data. The results highlight that failing to consider temporal variations in PM content may result in significant discrepancies between projections and future recycling potential. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis, in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis. Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis, thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

Future perspectives of resin-based dental materials.

PubMed

Jandt, Klaus D; Sigusch, Bernd W

2009-08-01

This concise review and outlook paper gives a view of selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based biomaterials with an emphasis on dental composites. A selection of key publications (1 book, 35 scientific original publications and 1 website source) covering the areas nanotechnology, antimicrobial materials, stimuli responsive materials, self-repairing materials and materials for tissue engineering with direct or indirect relations and/or implications to resin-based dental materials is critically reviewed and discussed. Connections between these fields and their potential for resin-based dental materials are highlighted and put in perspective. The need to improve shrinkage properties and wear resistance is obvious for dental composites, and a vast number of attempts have been made to accomplish these aims. Future resin-based materials may be further improved in this respect if, for example nanotechnology is applied. Dental composites may, however, reach a completely new quality by utilizing new trends from materials science, such as introducing nanostructures, antimicrobial properties, stimuli responsive capabilities, the ability to promote tissue regeneration or repair of dental tissues if the composites were able to repair themselves. This paper shows selected potential future developments in the area of resin-based dental materials, gives basic and industrial researchers in dental materials science, and dental practitioners a glance into the potential future of these materials, and should stimulate discussion about needs and future developments in the area.

The futures of climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, Sean

2017-01-01

This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.

Study of the Effectiveness of OCR for Decentralized Data Capture and Conversion. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liston, David M.; And Others

The ERIC network conversion to an OCR (Optical Character Recognition) mode of data entry was studied to analyze the potential effectiveness of OCR data entry for future EPC/s (Editorial Processing Centers). Study results are also applicable to any other system involving decentralized bibliographic data capture and conversion functions. The report…

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 1: Analysis of current air cargo system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burby, R. J.; Kuhlman, W. H.

1978-01-01

The material presented in this volume is classified into the following sections; (1) analysis of current routes; (2) air eligibility criteria; (3) current direct support infrastructure; (4) comparative mode analysis; (5) political and economic factors; and (6) future potential market areas. An effort was made to keep the observations and findings relating to the current systems as objective as possible in order not to bias the analysis of future air cargo operations reported in Volume 3 of the CLASS final report.

Design Flexibility for Uncertain Distributed Generation from Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmintier, Bryan; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Wu, Hongyu

2016-12-12

Uncertainty in the future adoption patterns for distributed energy resources (DERs) introduces a challenge for electric distribution system planning. This paper explores the potential for flexibility in design - also known as real options - to identify design solutions that may never emerge when future DER patterns are treated as deterministic. A test case for storage system design with uncertain distributed generation for solar photovoltaics (DGPV) demonstrates this approach and is used to study sensitivities to a range of techno-economic assumptions.

The potential biomarkers of drug addiction: proteomic and metabolomics challenges.

PubMed

Wang, Lv; Wu, Ning; Zhao, Tai-Yun; Li, Jin

2016-07-28

Drug addiction places a significant burden on society and individuals. Proteomics and metabolomics approaches pave the road for searching potential biomarkers to assist the diagnosis and treatment. This review summarized putative drug addiction-related biomarkers in proteomics and metabolomics studies and discussed challenges and prospects in future studies. Alterations of several hundred proteins and metabolites were reported when exposure to abused drug, which enriched in energy metabolism, oxidative stress response, protein modification and degradation, synaptic function and neurotrasmission, etc. Hsp70, peroxiredoxin-6 and α- and β-synuclein, as well as n-methylserotonin and purine metabolites, were promising as potential biomarker for drug addiction.

Error detection and response adjustment in youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy: an event-related brain potential study.

PubMed

Hakkarainen, Elina; Pirilä, Silja; Kaartinen, Jukka; van der Meere, Jaap J

2013-06-01

This study evaluated the brain activation state during error making in youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy and a peer control group while carrying out a stimulus recognition task. The key question was whether patients were detecting their own errors and subsequently improving their performance in a future trial. Findings indicated that error responses of the group with cerebral palsy were associated with weak motor preparation, as indexed by the amplitude of the late contingent negative variation. However, patients were detecting their errors as indexed by the amplitude of the response-locked negativity and thus improved their performance in a future trial. Findings suggest that the consequence of error making on future performance is intact in a sample of youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy. Because the study group is small, the present findings need replication using a larger sample.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-06-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-01-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals’ time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying “I don’t know” item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research. PMID:28781381

Vision for Micro Technology Space Missions. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dennehy, Neil

2005-01-01

It is exciting to contemplate the various space mission applications that Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) technology could enable in the next 10-20 years. The primary objective of this chapter is to both stimulate ideas for MEMS technology infusion on future NASA space missions and to spur adoption of the MEMS technology in the minds of mission designers. This chapter is also intended to inform non-space oriented MEMS technologists, researchers and decision makers about the rich potential application set that future NASA Science and Exploration missions will provide. The motivation for this chapter is therefore to lead the reader down a path to identify and it is exciting to contemplate the various space mission applications that Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) technology could enable in the next 10-20 years. The primary objective of this chapter is to both stimulate ideas for MEMS technology infusion on future NASA space missions and to spur adoption of the MEMS technology in the minds of mission designers. This chapter is also intended to inform non-space oriented MEMS technologists, researchers and decision makers about the rich potential application set that future NASA Science and Exploration missions will provide. The motivation for this chapter is therefore to lead the reader down a path to identify and consider potential long-term, perhaps disruptive or revolutionary, impacts that MEMS technology may have for future civilian space applications. A general discussion of the potential for MEMS in space applications is followed by a brief showcasing of a few selected examples of recent MEMS technology developments for future space missions. Using these recent developments as a point of departure, a vision is then presented of several areas where MEMS technology might eventually be exploited in future Science and Exploration mission applications. Lastly, as a stimulus for future research and development, this chapter summarizes a set of barriers to progress, design challenges and key issues that must be overcome in order for the community to move on, from the current nascent phase of developing and infusing MEMS technology into space missions, in order to achieve its full future potential.

Developing Intuition: The Key to Creative Futures Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southern, Stephen; Domzalski, Suzanne

Futures research involves speculation about alternative developments based upon existing data and potential choices. Effective futures research requires creativity in scientific practice rather than an overemphasis on reason. In discussing the important role of intuition in futures research, characteristics of creative scientists are reviewed and…

Economic and environmental evaluations of extractable coal resources conducted by the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, M.S.; Rohrbacher, T.J.; Carter, M.D.; Molnia, C.L.; Osmonson, L.M.; Scott, D.C.

2001-01-01

The Economic and Environmental Evaluations of Extractable Coal Resources (E4CR) project integrates economic analyses of extractable coal resources with environmental and coal quality considerations in order to better understand the contribution that coal resources can make to help meet the Nation’s future energy needs. The project utilizes coal resource information derived from the recent National Coal Resource Assessment (NCRA), National Oil and Gas Assessment (NOGA), and Coal Availability and Recoverability Studies (CARS) conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and other State and Federal cooperating agencies. The E4CR evaluations are designed to augment economic models created by the U.S. Geological Survey CARS and NCRA projects and by the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA). E4CR evaluations are conducted on potentially minable coal beds within selected coalfields in the United States. Emphasis is placed on coalfields containing Federally owned coal and within or adjacent to Federal lands, as shown in U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheets 012-98, 145-99, and 011-00 (U.S. Geological Survey, 1998, 1999, 2000). Other considerations for the selection of study areas include coal quality, potential environmental impact of coal production activities and coal utilization, the potential for coalbed methane development from the coal, and projected potential for future mining. Completion dates for the E4CR studies loosely follow the schedule for analogous NOGA studies to allow for a comparison of different energy resources in similar geographic areas.

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Kangalawe, Richard Y M; Yanda, Pius Z

2010-04-23

Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.

Induced pluripotent stem cells in hematology: current and future applications

PubMed Central

Focosi, D; Amabile, G; Di Ruscio, A; Quaranta, P; Tenen, D G; Pistello, M

2014-01-01

Reprogramming somatic cells into induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells is nowadays approaching effectiveness and clinical grade. Potential uses of this technology include predictive toxicology, drug screening, pathogenetic studies and transplantation. Here, we review the basis of current iPS cell technology and potential applications in hematology, ranging from disease modeling of congenital and acquired hemopathies to hematopoietic stem and other blood cell transplantation. PMID:24813079

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain. PMID:27248830

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Local recruitment experience in a study comparing the effectiveness of a low glycaemic index diet with a low calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

PubMed

Atiomo, William; Read, Anna; Golding, Mary; Silcocks, Paul; Razali, Nuguelis; Sarkar, Sabitabrata; Hardiman, Paul; Thornton, Jim

2009-09-01

Feasibility of a clinical-trial comparing a low-glycaemic diet with a low-calorie healthy eating approach at achieving weight loss and reducing the risk of endometrial cancer in women with PCOS. A pilot Randomised-Controlled-Trial using different recruitment strategies. A University Hospital in the United Kingdom. Women seen at specialist gynaecology clinics over a 12 month period in one University Hospital, and women self identified through a website and posters. Potential recruits were assessed for eligibility, gave informed consent, randomised, treated and assessed as in the definitive trial. Eligibility and recruitment rates, compliance with the allocated diet for 6 months and with clinical assessments, blood tests, pelvic ultrasound scans and endometrial biopsies. 1433 new and 2598 follow up patients were seen in 153 gynaecology clinics for over 12 months. 441 (11%) potentially eligible women were identified, 19 (0.4%) of whom met the trial entry criteria. Eleven consented to take part, of which 8 (73%) completed the study. Planned future trials on over-weight women with PCOS should be multicentre and should incorporate primary care. This data will help other researchers plan and calculate the sample size and potential recruitment rates in future clinical trials in PCOS. The results will also be useful for inclusion in future meta-analyses.

‘Energy landscapes’: Meeting energy demands and human aspirations

PubMed Central

Blaschke, Thomas; Biberacher, Markus; Gadocha, Sabine; Schardinger, Ingrid

2013-01-01

Renewable energy will play a crucial role in the future society of the 21st century. The various renewable energy sources need to be balanced and their use carefully planned since they are characterized by high temporal and spatial variability that will pose challenges to maintaining a well balanced supply and to the stability of the grid. This article examines the ways that future ‘energy landscapes’ can be modelled in time and space. Biomass needs a great deal of space per unit of energy produced but it is an energy carrier that may be strategically useful in circumstances where other renewable energy carriers are likely to deliver less. A critical question considered in this article is whether a massive expansion in the use of biomass will allow us to construct future scenarios while repositioning the ‘energy landscape’ as an object of study. A second important issue is the utilization of heat from biomass energy plants. Biomass energy also has a larger spatial footprint than other carriers such as, for example, solar energy. This article seeks to provide a bridge between energy modelling and spatial planning while integrating research and techniques in energy modelling with Geographic Information Science. This encompasses GIS, remote sensing, spatial disaggregation techniques and geovisualization. Several case studies in Austria and Germany demonstrate a top-down methodology and some results while stepwise calculating potentials from theoretical to technically feasible potentials and setting the scene for the definition of economic potentials based on scenarios and assumptions. PMID:26109751

Cognitive and Behavioral Resilience Among Young Gay and Bisexual Men Living with HIV.

PubMed

Hussen, Sophia A; Harper, Gary W; Rodgers, Caryn R R; van den Berg, Jacob J; Dowshen, Nadia; Hightow-Weidman, Lisa B

2017-08-01

HIV/AIDS disproportionately affects young gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (Y-GBMSM). Resilience remains understudied among Y-GBMSM living with HIV, but represents a potentially important framework for improving HIV-related outcomes in this population. We sought to explore cognitive and behavioral dimensions of resilience and their correlates among Y-GBMSM to gain insights to inform future interventions. Our study sample consisted of 200 Y-GBMSM living with HIV enrolled in a multisite study of the Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions (ATN). Participants completed a one-time, self-administered structured questionnaire, including validated scales capturing a range of cognitive, behavioral, demographic, and psychosocial data. Utilizing these data, we examined cognitive and behavioral dimensions of resilience and their potential psychosocial correlates using linear regression modeling. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that education, stigma, social support, ethnic identity, internalized homonegativity, and behavioral resilience were statistically significant predictors of cognitive resilience (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.678). Social support satisfaction and cognitive resilience were significant predictors of behavioral resilience (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.141). Our findings point to potential strategies for incorporating resilience-promoting features into future interventions to support Y-GBMSM living with HIV. Specifically, strengths-based interventions in this population should seek to enhance social support, promote positive identity development, and encourage education. Future research can also seek to utilize and refine our measures of resilience among youth.

2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alstone, Peter; Potter, Jennifer; Piette, Mary Ann

California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, tomore » defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?« less

Online canteens: awareness, use, barriers to use, and the acceptability of potential online strategies to improve public health nutrition in primary schools.

PubMed

Wyse, Rebecca; Yoong, Sze Lin; Dodds, Pennie; Campbell, Libby; Delaney, Tessa; Nathan, Nicole; Janssen, Lisa; Reilly, Kathryn; Sutherland, Rachel; Wiggers, John; Wolfenden, Luke

2017-03-01

Issue addressed This study of primary school principals assessed the awareness, use, barriers to use and acceptability of online canteens. Methods A telephone survey of 123 primary school principals within the Hunter New England Region of New South Wales, Australia was conducted from September 2014 to November 2014. Results Fifty-six percent of principals were aware of the existence of online canteens, with 8% having implemented such a system, and 38% likely to do so in the future. Medium/large schools were more likely to be aware of or to use online canteens, however there were no differences in awareness or use in relation to school rurality or socioeconomic advantage. Principals cited parent internet access as the most commonly identified perceived barrier to online canteen use, and the majority of principals (71-93%) agreed that it would be acceptable to implement a range of consumer behaviour strategies via an online canteen. Conclusions Study findings suggest that despite relatively low levels of current use, online canteens have the potential to reach a large proportion of school communities in the future, across geographical and socioeconomic divides, and that the nutrition interventions which they have the capacity to deliver are considered acceptable to school principals. So what? Online canteens may represent an opportunity to deliver nutrition interventions to school communities. Future research should examine the feasibility and potential effectiveness of interventions delivered via this modality.

ASSESSMENT OF ALLERGENIC POTENTIAL OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED FOODS: AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract
Speakers and participants in the Workshop Assessment of the Allergenic Potential of Genetically Modified Foods met in breakout groups to discuss a number of issues including needs for future research. There was agreement that research should move forward quickly in t...

The role of multi-feedstocks for cellulosic biofuel production and their potential in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global transportation demands have led to concerns about the sustainability, costs, and environmental consequences of relying on petroleum to meet future energy needs. Future low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) are being implemented worldwide to evaluate alternative fuel potential in reducing greenho...

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Mid-Term Prospects for Natural Gas Supply

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

This service report describes the recent behavior of natural gas markets with respect to natural gas prices, their potential future behavior, the potential future supply contribution of liquefied natural gas and increased access to federally restricted resources, and the need for improved natural gas data.

The Belem Framework for Action: Harnessing the Power and Potential of Adult Learning and Education for a Viable Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adult Learning, 2012

2012-01-01

This article presents the Belem Framework for Action. This framework focuses on harnessing the power and potential of adult learning and education for a viable future. This framework begins with a preamble on adult education and towards lifelong learning.

Qualitative Future Safety Risk Identification an Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barr, Lawrence C.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the results of a high-level qualitative study that was conducted to identify future aviation safety risks and to assess the potential impacts to the National Airspace System (NAS) of NASA Aviation Safety research on these risks. Multiple external sources (for example, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Flight Safety Foundation, the National Research Council, and the Joint Planning and Development Office) were used to develop a compilation of future safety issues risks, also referred to as future tall poles. The primary criterion used to identify the most critical future safety risk issues was that the issue must be cited in several of these sources as a safety area of concern. The tall poles in future safety risk, in no particular order of importance, are as follows: Runway Safety, Loss of Control In Flight, Icing Ice Detection, Loss of Separation, Near Midair Collision Human Fatigue, Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation, Vulnerability Discovery, Data Sharing and Dissemination, and Enhanced Survivability in the Event of an Accident.

Identifying and prioritising systematic review topics with public health stakeholders: A protocol for a modified Delphi study in Switzerland to inform future research agendas

PubMed Central

Mütsch, Margot; Kien, Christina; Gerhardus, Ansgar; Lhachimi, Stefan K

2017-01-01

Introduction The Cochrane Collaboration aims to produce relevant and top priority evidence that responds to existing evidence gaps. Hence, research priority setting (RPS) is important to identify which potential research gaps are deemed most important. Moreover, RPS supports future health research to conform both health and health evidence needs. However, studies that are prioritising systematic review topics in public health are surprisingly rare. Therefore, to inform the research agenda of Cochrane Public Health Europe (CPHE), we introduce the protocol of a priority setting study on systematic review topics in several European countries, which is conceptualised as pilot. Methods and analysis We will conduct a two-round modified Delphi study in Switzerland, incorporating an anonymous web-based questionnaire, to assess which topics should be prioritised for systematic reviews in public health. In the first Delphi round public health stakeholders will suggest relevant assessment criteria and potential priority topics. In the second Delphi round the participants indicate their (dis)agreement to the aggregated results of the first round and rate the potential review topics with the predetermined criteria on a four-point Likert scale. As we invite a wide variety of stakeholders we will compare the results between the different stakeholder groups. Ethics and dissemination We have received ethical approval from the ethical board of the University of Bremen, Germany (principal investigation is conducted at the University of Bremen) and a certificate of non-objection from the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland (fieldwork will be conducted in Switzerland). The results of this study will be further disseminated through peer reviewed publication and will support systematic review author groups (i.a. CPHE) to improve the relevance of the groups´ future review work. Finally, the proposed priority setting study can be used as a framework by other systematic review groups when conducting a priority setting study in a different context. PMID:28780546

Probiotics as potential antioxidants: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mishra, Vijendra; Shah, Chandni; Mokashe, Narendra; Chavan, Rupesh; Yadav, Hariom; Prajapati, Jashbhai

2015-04-15

Probiotics are known for their health beneficial effects and are established as dietary adjuncts. Probiotics have been known for many beneficial health effects. In this view, there is interest to find the potential probiotic strains that can exhibit antioxidant properties along with health benefits. In vitro and in vivo studies indicate that probiotics exhibit antioxidant potential. In this view, consumption of probiotics alone or foods supplemented with probiotics may reduce oxidative damage, free radical scavenging rate, and modification in activity of crucial antioxidative enzymes in human cells. Incorporation of probiotics in foods can provide a good strategy to supply dietary antioxidants, but more studies are needed to standardize methods and evaluate antioxidant properties of probiotics before they can be recommended for antioxidant potential. In this paper, the literature related to known antioxidant potential of probiotics and proposing future perspectives to conduct such studies has been reviewed.

Energy futures: Trading opportunities for the 1980's

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Treat, J.E.; Cowie, S.; Davidson, F.E.

1984-01-01

This text gives a broad background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading. It details successful contract requirements. It analyzes fundamental and technical pricing and using both to manage risk and achieve trading objectives. Hedging strategy, financial aspects of trading, accounting procedures, internal control systems and tax implications are all expertly covered. The book concludes with the potential impact of futures trading on the structure of world markets. Contents: Energy futures: an overview; Exchanges and their contracts; Fundamental analysis and the theory of hedging; The principles of technical analysis; Putting it all together; Integrated trading strategies; Energy futures;more » Financing and exposure management in the oil industry; Accounting principles, taxation, and internal control; The potential impacts of trading in oil futures on the world oil market; Appendix; Glossary; Index.« less

Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

2016-12-01

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

Near-infrared fluorescence image-guidance in plastic surgery: A systematic review.

PubMed

Cornelissen, Anouk J M; van Mulken, Tom J M; Graupner, Caitlin; Qiu, Shan S; Keuter, Xavier H A; van der Hulst, René R W J; Schols, Rutger M

2018-01-01

Near-infrared fluorescence (NIRF) imaging technique, after administration of contrast agents with fluorescent characteristics in the near-infrared (700-900 nm) range, is considered to possess great potential for the future of plastic surgery, given its capacity for perioperative, real-time anatomical guidance and identification. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive literature review concerning current and potential future applications of NIRF imaging in plastic surgery, thereby guiding future research. A systematic literature search was performed in databases of Cochrane Library CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE (last search Oct 2017) regarding NIRF imaging in plastic surgery. Identified articles were screened and checked for eligibility by two authors independently. Forty-eight selected studies included 1166 animal/human subjects in total. NIRF imaging was described for a variety of (pre)clinical applications in plastic surgery. Thirty-two articles used NIRF angiography, i.e., vascular imaging after intravenous dye administration. Ten articles reported on NIRF lymphography after subcutaneous dye administration. Although currently most applied, general protocols for dosage and timing of dye administration for NIRF angiography and lymphography are still lacking. Three articles applied NIRF to detect nerve injury, and another three studies described other novel applications in plastic surgery. Future standard implementation of novel intraoperative optical techniques, such as NIRF imaging, could significantly contribute to perioperative anatomy guidance and facilitate critical decision-making in plastic surgical procedures. Further investigation (i.e., large multicenter randomized controlled trials) is mandatory to establish the true value of this innovative surgical imaging technique in standard clinical practice and to aid in forming consensus on protocols for general use.Level of Evidence: Not ratable.

Study to identify future cryogen payload elements/users for space shuttle launch during period 1990 to 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elim, Frank M.

1989-01-01

This study provides a summary of future cryogenic space payload users, their currently projected needs and reported planning for space operations over the next decade. At present, few users with payloads consisting of reactive cryogens, or any cryogen in significant quantities, are contemplating the use of the Space Shuttle. Some members of the cryogenic payload community indicated an interest in flying their future planned payloads on the orbiter, versus an expendable launch vehicle (ELV), but are awaiting the outcome of a Rockwell study to define what orbiter mods and payloads requirements are needed to safely fly chemically reactive cryogen payloads, and the resultant cost, schedule, and operational impacts. Should NASA management decide in early 1990 to so modify orbiter(s), based on the Rockwell study and/or changes in national defense payloads launch requirements, then at least some cryo payload customers will reportedly plan on using the Shuttle orbiter vehicle in preference to an ELV. This study concludes that the most potential for possible future cryogenic space payloads for the Space Transportation System Orbiter fleet lies within the scientific research and defense communities.

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

Future flooding impacts on transportation infrastructure and traffic patterns resulting from climate change.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-01

"This study investigated potential impacts of climate change on travel disruption resulting from road closures in two urban watersheds in the : Portland metropolitan area. We used ensemble climate change scenarios, a hydrologic model, stream channel ...

Learning through Making and Maker Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsu, Yu-Chang; Baldwin, Sally; Ching, Yu-Hui

2017-01-01

In this paper, we provide an overview of the current efforts in maker education, supported by a review of empirical studies. Our synthesis will inform the community about learning outcomes, potential and common issues, challenges, resources, and future research direction regarding maker education.

Rural influentials' perceptions of tourism and its potential for economic development: a qualitative study

Treesearch

Steven W. Burr

1995-01-01

Rural residents' perceptions of tourism and its associated impacts are likely to be important in planning, development, marketing, and operation of existing and future tourism projects. This study examines rural influentials' perceptions of tourism as a tool for economic revitalization in Pennsylvania's rural counties, its present impact, and its...

Sustainability Learning through Gaming: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fabricatore, Carlo; Lopez, Ximena

2012-01-01

This study explored the potential of digital games as learning environments to develop mindsets capable of dealing with complexity in the domain of sustainability. Building sustainable futures requires the ability to deal with the complex dynamics that characterize the world in which we live. As central elements in this system, we must develop the…

Interactions among Future Study Abroad Students: Exploring Potential Intercultural Learning Sequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borghetti, C.; Beaven, A.; Pugliese, R.

2015-01-01

The study presented in this article aims to explore if and how intercultural learning may take place in students' class interaction. It is grounded in the assumption that interculturality is not a clear-cut feature inherent to interactions occurring when individuals with presumed different linguistic and cultural/national backgrounds talk to each…

Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies

PubMed Central

Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

2016-01-01

Objectives Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Design Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. Participants People are not needed in this study. Data sources The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Main outcome measure Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. Results 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. Conclusions The methodological fundamentals of formal 3–20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. PMID:26966060

Evaluation of advanced propulsion options for the next manned transportation system: Propulsion evolution study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spears, L. T.; Kramer, R. D.

1990-01-01

The objectives were to examine launch vehicle applications and propulsion requirements for potential future manned space transportation systems and to support planning toward the evolution of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) and Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) engines beyond their current or initial launch vehicle applications. As a basis for examinations of potential future manned launch vehicle applications, we used three classes of manned space transportation concepts currently under study: Space Transportation System Evolution, Personal Launch System (PLS), and Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS). Tasks included studies of launch vehicle applications and requirements for hydrogen-oxygen rocket engines; the development of suggestions for STME engine evolution beyond the mid-1990's; the development of suggestions for STME evolution beyond the Advanced Launch System (ALS) application; the study of booster propulsion options, including LOX-Hydrocarbon options; the analysis of the prospects and requirements for utilization of a single engine configuration over the full range of vehicle applications, including manned vehicles plus ALS and Shuttle C; and a brief review of on-going and planned LOX-Hydrogen propulsion technology activities.

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

PubMed Central

Endres, Megan L.; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

2015-01-01

We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making. PMID:26042059

Defense Science Board Summer Study on Strategic Surprise

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

actions and hedges against changing priorities. The study focused on potential regrets in eight areas and provides recommendations to avoid ... avoid   potential  regrets  in 2024.  A Changing Context for Operations  The study explored current and future operational contexts. The study defined...hedge against these and similar surprises—and to  avoid   regretting  actions or lack  of action taken today—the study evaluated several key mission and

Web-Based Couple Interventions: Do They Have a Future?

PubMed Central

Georgia, Emily J.; Doss, Brian D.

2015-01-01

To examine the current and potential future impact of formal and informal resources to enhance romantic relationships, 1,160 individuals were surveyed. When asked about resources previously utilized, participants reported that numerous forms of relationship help, including talking to a friend/coworker/family member, an individual therapist, and reading self-help materials had a larger impact than attending couple therapy. When asked about potential resources they would be likely to use in the future for relationship problems, participants indicated a strong preference for online self-help resources that included detailed feedback paired with a comprehensive, structured program. Implications for future development and dissemination are discussed. PMID:26550001

Electricity Bill Savings from Residential Photovoltaic Systems: Sensitivities to Changes in Future Electricity Market Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darghouth, Naim; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan

2013-01-09

Customer-sited photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States are often compensated at the customer’s underlying retail electricity rate through net metering. Calculations of the customer economics of PV, meanwhile, often assume that retail rate structures and PV compensation mechanisms will not change and that retail electricity prices will increase (or remain constant) over time, thereby also increasing (or keeping constant) the value of bill savings from PV. Given the multitude of potential changes to retail rates and PV compensation mechanisms in the future, however, understanding how such changes might impact the value of bill savings from PV is critical formore » policymakers, regulators, utilities, the solar industry, and potential PV owners, i.e., any stakeholder interested in understanding uncertainties in and potential changes to the long-term customer economics of PV. This scoping study investigates the impact of, and interactions among, three key sources of uncertainty in the future value of bill savings from customer-sited PV, focusing in particular on residential customers. These three sources of uncertainty are: changes to electricity market conditions that would affect retail electricity prices, changes to the types of retail rate structures available to residential customers with PV, and shifts away from standard net-metering toward other compensation mechanisms for residential PV.« less

Land-use and land-cover scenarios and spatial modeling at the regional scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2012-01-01

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has altered a large part of the earth's surface. Scenarios of potential future LULC change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on biodiversity, carbon fluxes, climate change, hydrology, and many other ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey is analyzing potential future LULC change in the United States, using an approach based on scenario construction and spatially explicit modeling. Similar modeling techniques are being used to produce historical LULC maps from 1940 to present. With the combination of backcast and forecast LULC data, the USGS is providing consistent LULC data for historical, current, and future time frames to support a variety of research applications.

Review of Knowledge on the Occurrence, Chemical Composition, and Potential Use for Desalination of Saline Ground Water in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas with a Discussion of Potential Future Study Needs

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

Parsons Company and Texas Water Development Board, 1967; Schultz and others, 1967; Morris and Prehn , 1971; and Stucky and Arnwine, 1971). Desalination is...Inland desalination operations commonly dispose of concentrate using evaporation ponds (Morris and Prehn , 1971; Stucky and Arnwine, 1971) or deep-well...New Mexico, 1976). The potential contribution of desalination to water supply in New Mexico has been discussed by Morris and Prehn (1971) and Stucky

Perspectives on the Future of CFD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwak, Dochan

2000-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of the future of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which in the past has pioneered the field of flow simulation. Over time CFD has progressed as computing power. Numerical methods have been advanced as CPU and memory capacity increases. Complex configurations are routinely computed now and direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) are used to study turbulence. As the computing resources changed to parallel and distributed platforms, computer science aspects such as scalability (algorithmic and implementation) and portability and transparent codings have advanced. Examples of potential future (or current) challenges include risk assessment, limitations of the heuristic model, and the development of CFD and information technology (IT) tools.

Optic variables used to judge future ball arrival position in expert and novice soccer players.

PubMed

Craig, Cathy M; Goulon, Cédric; Berton, Eric; Rao, Guillaume; Fernandez, Laure; Bootsma, Reinoud J

2009-04-01

Although many studies have looked at the perceptual-cognitive strategies used to make anticipatory judgments in sport, few have examined the informational invariants that our visual system may be attuned to. Using immersive interactive virtual reality to simulate the aerodynamics of the trajectory of a ball with and without sidespin, the present study examined the ability of expert and novice soccer players to make judgments about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of their judgment responses showed how participants were strongly influenced by the ball's trajectory. The changes in trajectory caused by sidespin led to erroneous predictions about the ball's future arrival position. An analysis of potential informational variables that could explain these results points to the use of a first-order compound variable combining optical expansion and optical displacement.

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

A survey of national and multi-national registries and cohort studies in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Beukelman, Timothy; Anink, Janneke; Berntson, Lillemor; Duffy, Ciaran; Ellis, Justine A; Glerup, Mia; Guzman, Jaime; Horneff, Gerd; Kearsley-Fleet, Lianne; Klein, Ariane; Klotsche, Jens; Magnusson, Bo; Minden, Kirsten; Munro, Jane E; Niewerth, Martina; Nordal, Ellen; Ruperto, Nicolino; Santos, Maria Jose; Schanberg, Laura E; Thomson, Wendy; van Suijlekom-Smit, Lisette; Wulffraat, Nico; Hyrich, Kimme

2017-04-19

To characterize the existing national and multi-national registries and cohort studies in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and identify differences as well as areas of potential future collaboration. We surveyed investigators from North America, Europe, and Australia about existing JIA cohort studies and registries. We excluded cross-sectional studies. We captured information about study design, duration, location, inclusion criteria, data elements and collection methods. We received survey results from 18 studies, including 11 national and 7 multi-national studies representing 37 countries in total. Study designs included inception cohorts, prevalent disease cohorts, and new treatment cohorts (several of which contribute to pharmacosurveillance activities). Despite numerous differences, the data elements collected across the studies was quite similar, with most studies collecting at least 5 of the 6 American College of Rheumatology core set variables and the data needed to calculate the 3-variable clinical juvenile disease activity score. Most studies were collecting medication initiation and discontinuation dates and were attempting to capture serious adverse events. There is a wide-range of large, ongoing JIA registries and cohort studies around the world. Our survey results indicate significant potential for future collaborative work using data from different studies and both combined and comparative analyses.

Using differential scanning calorimetry, laser refractometry, electrical conductivity and spectrophotometry for discrimination of different types of Bulgarian honey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlaeva, I.; Nikolova, K.; Bodurov, I.; Marudova, M.; Tsankova, D.; Lekova, S.; Viraneva, A.; Yovcheva, T.

2017-01-01

The potential of several physical methods for investigation of the botanical origin of honey has been discussed. Samples from the three most prevalent types of honey in Bulgaria (acacia, linden and honeydew) have been used. They have been examined by laser refractometry, UV, VIS and FTIR spectroscopy, electric conductivity measurement and differential scanning calorimetry. The purpose of this study was to reveal the physical characterizations of honeys from different flora produced in Bulgaria and to identify honeys with a high apitherapy potential for future studies.

Will Robots Ever Replace Attendants? Exploring the Current Capabilities and Future Potential of Robots in Education and Rehabilitation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lees, David; LePage, Pamela

1994-01-01

This article describes the current capabilities and future potential of robots designed as supplements or replacements for human assistants or as tools for education and rehabilitation of people with disabilities. Review of robots providing educational, vocational, or independent living assistance concludes that eventually effective, reliable…

Air cushion landing gear applications study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Earl, T. D.

1979-01-01

A series of air cushion landing gear (ACLG) applications was studied and potential benefits analyzed in order to identify the most attractive of these. The selected applications are new integrated designs (not retrofits) and employ a modified design approach with improved characteristics and performance. To aid the study, a survey of potential users was made. Applications were evaluated in the light of comments received. A technology scenario is developed, with discussion of problem areas, current technology level and future needs. Feasible development timetables are suggested. It is concluded that near-term development of small-size ACLG trunks, exploration of flight effects and braking are key items. The most attractive applications are amphibious with very large cargo aircraft and small general aviation having the greatest potential.

A safety roadmap for future plastics and composites intensive vehicles

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-11-01

This report summarizes the approach, activities, and results of a study to evaluate the potential safety benefits of Plastics and Composites Intensive Vehicles (PCIVs) to enable their deployment by 2020. The main goals were to review and assess the s...

Regional elevator survey : grain transportation & industry trends for Great Plains elevators

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

One potential means for gaining insight into the current state of the elevator industry, : and into expectations for future trends, is through a survey. The objective of this study is to profile the transportation and industry characteristics of the ...

Impact of Climate Change on Potential, Attainable, and Actual Wheat Yield in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, K.; Linde, E.; Kakani, V. G.; Alderman, P. D.; Brunson, D.; Ochsner, T. E.; Carver, B.

2017-12-01

Gradually developing climatic and weather anomalies due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration can pose threat to farmers and resource managers. This study was aimed at investigating the effects of climate change on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 6.0 and 8.5 using downscaled climate projections from different models and their ensembles. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation for, four General Circulation Models (MRIOC5, MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSRIO-Mk3.6.0), ensemble of four models and ensemble of 17 GCMs, at 800 m resolution, were developed for two RCPs using Marksim. We describe a methodology for rapid synthesis of GCM-based, spatially explicit, high resolution future weather data inputs for the DSSAT crop model, for cropland area across wheat growing regions of Oklahoma for the future period 2040-2060. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on potential, attainable, and actual winter wheat yield in Oklahoma is discussed.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Short and long-term carbon balance of bioenergy electricity production fueled by forest treatments.

PubMed

Kelsey, Katharine C; Barnes, Kallie L; Ryan, Michael G; Neff, Jason C

2014-01-01

Forests store large amounts of carbon in forest biomass, and this carbon can be released to the atmosphere following forest disturbance or management. In the western US, forest fuel reduction treatments designed to reduce the risk of high severity wildfire can change forest carbon balance by removing carbon in the form of biomass, and by altering future potential wildfire behavior in the treated stand. Forest treatment carbon balance is further affected by the fate of this biomass removed from the forest, and the occurrence and intensity of a future wildfire in this stand. In this study we investigate the carbon balance of a forest treatment with varying fates of harvested biomass, including use for bioenergy electricity production, and under varying scenarios of future disturbance and regeneration. Bioenergy is a carbon intensive energy source; in our study we find that carbon emissions from bioenergy electricity production are nearly twice that of coal for the same amount of electricity. However, some emissions from bioenergy electricity production are offset by avoided fossil fuel electricity emissions. The carbon benefit achieved by using harvested biomass for bioenergy electricity production may be increased through avoided pyrogenic emissions if the forest treatment can effectively reduce severity. Forest treatments with the use of harvested biomass for electricity generation can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere by offsetting fossil fuel electricity generation emissions, and potentially by avoided pyrogenic emissions due to reduced intensity and severity of a future wildfire in the treated stand. However, changes in future wildfire and regeneration regimes may affect forest carbon balance and these climate-induced changes may influence forest carbon balance as much, or more, than bioenergy production.

Designing augmentative and alternative communication applications: the results of focus groups with speech-language pathologists and parents of children with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Boster, Jamie B; McCarthy, John W

2018-05-01

The purpose of this study was to gain insight from speech-language pathologists (SLPs) and parents of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) regarding appealing features of augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) applications. Two separate 1-hour focus groups were conducted with 8 SLPs and 5 parents of children with ASD to identify appealing design features of AAC Apps, their benefits and potential concerns. Participants were shown novel interface designs for communication mode, play mode and incentive systems. Participants responded to poll questions and provided benefits and drawbacks of the features as part of structured discussion. SLPs and parents identified a range of appealing features in communication mode (customization, animation and colour-coding) as well as in play mode (games and videos). SLPs preferred interfaces that supported motor planning and instruction while parents preferred those features such as character assistants that would appeal to their child. Overall SLPs and parents agreed on features for future AAC Apps. SLPs and parents have valuable input in regards to future AAC app design informed by their experiences with children with ASD. Both groups are key stakeholders in the design process and should be included in future design and research endeavors. Implications for Rehabilitation AAC applications for the iPad are often designed based on previous devices without consideration of new features. Ensuring the design of new interfaces are appealing and beneficial for children with ASD can potentially further support their communication. This study demonstrates how key stakeholders in AAC including speech language pathologists and parents can provide information to support the development of future AAC interface designs. Key stakeholders may be an untapped resource in the development of future AAC interfaces for children with ASD.

Development of Adygine glacier complex (glacier and proglacial lakes) and its link to outburst hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falatkova, Kristyna; Schöner, Wolfgang; Häusler, Hermann; Reisenhofer, Stefan; Neureiter, Anton; Sobr, Miroslav; Jansky, Bohumir

2017-04-01

Mountain glacier retreat has a well-known impact on life of local population - besides anxiety over water supply for agriculture, industry, or households, it has proved to have a direct influence on glacier hazard occurrence. The paper focuses on lake outburst hazard specifically, and aims to describe the previous and future development of Adygine glacier complex and identify its relationship to the hazard. The observed glacier is situated in the Northern Tien Shan, with an area of 4 km2 in northern exposition at an elevation range of 3,500-4,200 m a.s.l. The study glacier ranks in the group of small-sized glaciers, therefore we expect it to respond faster to changes of the climate compared to larger ones. Below the glacier there is a three-level cascade of proglacial lakes at different stages of development. The site has been observed sporadically since 1960s, however, closer study has been carried out since 2007. Past development of the glacier-lake complex is analyzed by combination of satellite imagery interpretations and on-site measurements (geodetic and bathymetric survey). A glacier mass balance model is used to simulate future development of the glacier resulting from climate scenarios. We used the simulated future glacier extent and the glacier base topography provided by GPR survey to assess potential for future lake formation. This enables us to assess the outburst hazard for the three selected lakes with an outlook for possible/probable hazard changes linked to further complex succession/progression (originating from climate change scenarios). Considering the proximity of the capital Bishkek, spreading settlements, and increased demand for tourism-related infrastructure within the main valley, it is of high importance to identify the present and possible future hazards that have a potential to affect this region.

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayarzaguena, B.; Langematz, U.; Polvani, L. M; Abalichin, J.; Akiyoshi, H.; Klekociuk, A.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Oman, L.

2015-01-01

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Small Engine Component Technology (SECT) study. Program report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Almodovar, E.; Exley, T.; Kaehler, H.; Schneider, W.

1986-01-01

The study was conducted to identify high payoff technologies for year 2000 small gas turbine applications and to provide a technology plan for guiding future research and technology efforts. A regenerative cycle turboprop engine was selected for a 19 passenger commuter aircraft application. A series of engines incorporating eight levels of advanced technologies were studied and their impact on aircraft performance was evaluated. The study indicated a potential reduction in fuel burn of 38.3 percent. At $1.00 per gallon fuel price, a potential DOC benefit of 12.5 percent would be achieved. At $2.00 per gallon, the potential DOC benefit would increase to 17.0 percent. Four advanced technologies are recommended and appropriate research and technology programs were established to reach the year 2000 goals.

Does nailfold capillaroscopy help predict future outcomes in systemic sclerosis? A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Paxton, Dolcie; Pauling, John D

2018-02-14

Nailfold capillaroscopy (NC) is an important diagnostic tool in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Confirmation of NC as a prognostic factor could facilitate earlier intervention and slow disease progression in SSc. We undertook a systematic literature review to evaluate the prognostic value of NC in predicting SSc disease progression. Standardised searches of EMBASE and MEDLINE were undertaken to identify longitudinal studies of adult subjects with SSc reporting the prognostic value of NC for any aspect of disease progression and/or survival. Non-English, non-original research, animal studies, non-adult studies and non-full length reports were excluded from the analysis (PROSPERO 2017:CRD42017071719). Wide heterogeneity in study design, prognostic factor measurement and study outcomes necessitated a qualitative data synthesis. The "QUality In Prognosis Studies" (QUIPS) risk-of-bias tool was used to assess study quality. Study selection, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment were each undertaken independently by 2 reviewers and consensus reached where necessary. Of 942 retrieved articles, 18 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies (17/18, 94%) reported positive associations between baseline NC appearances (using a variety of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative NC endpoints) and clinical outcomes including digital ulcer (DU) occurrence/healing, survival, disease progression (using domains of Medsger disease severity scale), calcinosis, skin progression, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and/or a composite analysis of "cardiovascular events". Application of the QUIPS tool identified a moderate-high risk of potential bias in 6/18 studies for study participation, 3/18 studies for study attrition, 10/18 for prognostic factor measurement, 5/18 for outcome measurement, 13/18 for confounders and 13/18 for statistical analyses. Study quality limited the strength of the conclusions drawn from these studies. The most important source of potential bias across the studies was insufficient adjustment for potential confounders; such as existing DU disease in studies evaluating future DU occurrence. Recent work suggests NC evolution is an important predictor of disease progression in SSc. High levels of potential bias relating to study confounding and statistical analysis make it difficult to draw conclusions regarding the prognostic role of NC in SSc. There is strong evidence supporting an association between NC abnormalities (particularly capillary loss) and disease severity (particularly vascular manifestations such as DU, calcinosis and PAH). Evolution of NC appearances may represent a more important predictor of disease progression which could have important implications for the future use of NC in the routine longitudinal assessment and management of SSc. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review of numerical methods for simulation of the aortic root: Present and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Hossein; Cartier, Raymond; Mongrain, Rosaire

2016-05-01

Heart valvular disease is still one of the main causes of mortality and morbidity in develop countries. Numerical modeling has gained considerable attention in studying hemodynamic conditions associated with valve abnormalities. Simulating the large displacement of the valve in the course of the cardiac cycle needs a well-suited numerical method to capture the natural biomechanical phenomena which happens in the valve. The paper aims to review the principal progress of the numerical approaches for studying the hemodynamic of the aortic valve. In addition, the future directions of the current approaches as well as their potential clinical applications are discussed.

NASA Satellite Observations: A Unique Asset for the Study of the Environment and Implications for Public

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Sue

2010-01-01

Health providers/researchers need environmental data to study and understand the geographic, environmental, and meteorological differences in disease. Satellite remote sensing of the environment offers a unique vantage point that can fill in the gaps of environmental, spatial, and temporal data for tracking disease. The field of geospatial health remains in its infancy, and this program will demonstrate the need for collaborations between multi-disciplinary research groups to develop the full potential. NASA will discuss some of their Public Health Projects and also providing the audience with information on opportunities for future collaborations with NASA for future research.

Preliminary Work Domain Analysis for Human Extravehicular Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGuire, Kerry; Miller, Matthew; Feigh, Karen

2015-01-01

A work domain analysis (WDA) of human extravehicular activity (EVA) is presented in this study. A formative methodology such as Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) offers a new perspective to the knowledge gained from the past 50 years of living and working in space for the development of future EVA support systems. EVA is a vital component of human spaceflight and provides a case study example of applying a work domain analysis (WDA) to a complex sociotechnical system. The WDA presented here illustrates how the physical characteristics of the environment, hardware, and life support systems of the domain guide the potential avenues and functional needs of future EVA decision support system development.

Accessible Near-Earth Objects (NEOs)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barbee, Brent W.

2015-01-01

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids and comets whose orbits are in close proximity to Earth's orbit; specifically, they have perihelia less than 1.3 astronomical units. NEOs particularly near Earth asteroids (NEAs) are identified as potential destinations for future human exploration missions. In this presentation I provide an overview of the current state of knowledge regarding the astrodynamical accessibility of NEAs according to NASA's Near Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). I also investigate the extremes of NEA accessibility using case studies and illuminate the fact that a space-based survey for NEOs is essential to expanding the set of known accessible NEAs for future human exploration missions.

The Nitrate Inventory of Unsaturated Soils at the Barrow Environmental Observatory: Current Conditions and Potential Future Trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heikoop, J. M.; Newman, B. D.; Arendt, C. A.; Andresen, C. G.; Lara, M. J.; Wainwright, H. M.; Throckmorton, H.; Graham, D. E.; Wilson, C. J.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Bolton, W. R.; Wales, N. A.; Rowland, J. C.

2016-12-01

Studies conducted in the Barrow Environmental Observatory under the auspices of the United States Department of Energy Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE) - Arctic have demonstrated measurable nitrate concentrations ranging from <1 to 17 mg/L in the unsaturated centers of high-centered polygons. Conversely, nitrate concentrations in saturated areas of polygonal terrain were generally below the limit of detection. Isotopic analysis of this nitrate demonstrates that it results from microbial nitrification. The study site currently comprises mostly saturated soils. Several factors, however, could lead to drying of soils on different time scales. These include 1) topographic inversion of polygonal terrain associated with ice-wedge degradation, 2) increased connectivity and drainage of polygon troughs, similarly related to the thawing and subsidence of ice-wedges, and 3) near-surface soil drainage associated with wide-spread permafrost thaw and active layer deepening. Using a GIS approach we will estimate the current inventory of nitrate in the NGEE intensive study site using soil moisture data and existing unsaturated zone nitrate concentration data and new concentration data collected in the summer of 2016 from high- and flat-centered polygons and the elevated rims of low-centered polygons. Using this baseline, we will present potential future inventories based on various scenarios of active layer thickening and landscape geomorphic reorganization associated with permafrost thaw. Predicted inventories will be based solely on active layer moisture changes, ignoring for now potential changes associated with mineralization and nitrification of previously frozen old organic matter and changes in vegetation communities. We wish to demonstrate that physical landscape changes alone could have a profound effect on future nitrate availability. Nitrate data from recent NGEE campaigns in the Seward Peninsula of Alaska will also be presented.

Impact of landuse/land cover change on run-off in the catchment of a hydro power project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khare, Deepak; Patra, Diptendu; Mondal, Arun; Kundu, Sananda

2017-05-01

The landuse/land cover change and rainfall have a significant influence on the hydrological response of the river basins. The run-off characteristics are changing naturally due to reduction of initial abstraction that increases the run-off volume. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the changes in the run-off characteristics of a catchment under the influence of changed landuse/land cover. Soil conservation service model has been used in the present study to analyse the impact of various landuse/land cover (past, present and future time period) change in the run-off characteristics of a part of Narmada basin at the gauge discharge site of Mandaleswar in Madhya Pradesh, India. Calculated run-off has been compared with the observed run-off data for the study. The landuse/land cover maps of 1990, 2000 and 2009 have been prepared by digital classification method with proper accuracy using satellite imageries. The impact of the run-off change on hydro power potential has been assessed in the study along with the estimation of the future changes in hydro power potential. Five types of conditions (+10, +5 %, average, -5, -10 % of average rainfall) have been applied with 90 and 75 % dependability status. The generated energy will be less in 90 % dependable flow in respect to the 75 % dependable flow. This work will be helpful for future planning related to establishment of hydropower setup.

The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland.

PubMed

Bauer, P; Barthelmes, D; Kurz, M; Fleischhauer, J C; Sutter, F K

2008-05-01

Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.

Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2015-12-01

Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in the ME scenario are half of that in the HE scenario, and a quarter in the LE scenario. In addition, we set three categories depending on mortality level. Our proposed vulnerability scenarios would enable us to reasonably replicate self-sustained vulnerability change against flood hazard associated with the SSPs.

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines

PubMed Central

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-01-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations. PMID:25469162

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines.

PubMed

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-08-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations.

Study on feasible technical potential of coal to electricity in china

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Dexiang; Tan, Xiandong

2017-01-01

The control of bulk coal is one of the important work of air pollution control in China’s future. Existing research mainly focuses on the adaptability, economy, construction and renovation plan, and operation optimization of specific energy substitution utilization, and lacks the strategy research of long-term layout of energy substitution utilization in large area. This paper puts forward a technical potential prediction method of coal to electricity based on the thermal equivalent method, which is based on the characteristics of regional coal consumption, and combined with the trend of adaptability and economy of energy substitution utilization. Also, the paper calculates the comprehensive benefit of coal to electricity according to the varieties of energy consumption and pollutant emission level of unit energy consumption in China’s future. The research result shows that the development technical potential of coal to electricity in China is huge, about 1.8 trillion kWh, including distributed electric heating, heat pump and electric heating boiler, mainly located in North China, East China, and Northeast China. The implementation of coal to electricity has remarkable comprehensive benefits in energy conservation and emission reduction, and improvement of energy consumption safety level. Case study shows the rationality of the proposed method.

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Integrative data analysis in clinical psychology research.

PubMed

Hussong, Andrea M; Curran, Patrick J; Bauer, Daniel J

2013-01-01

Integrative data analysis (IDA), a novel framework for conducting the simultaneous analysis of raw data pooled from multiple studies, offers many advantages including economy (i.e., reuse of extant data), power (i.e., large combined sample sizes), the potential to address new questions not answerable by a single contributing study (e.g., combining longitudinal studies to cover a broader swath of the lifespan), and the opportunity to build a more cumulative science (i.e., examining the similarity of effects across studies and potential reasons for dissimilarities). There are also methodological challenges associated with IDA, including the need to account for sampling heterogeneity across studies, to develop commensurate measures across studies, and to account for multiple sources of study differences as they impact hypothesis testing. In this review, we outline potential solutions to these challenges and describe future avenues for developing IDA as a framework for studies in clinical psychology.

Integrative Data Analysis in Clinical Psychology Research

PubMed Central

Hussong, Andrea M.; Curran, Patrick J.; Bauer, Daniel J.

2013-01-01

Integrative Data Analysis (IDA), a novel framework for conducting the simultaneous analysis of raw data pooled from multiple studies, offers many advantages including economy (i.e., reuse of extant data), power (i.e., large combined sample sizes), the potential to address new questions not answerable by a single contributing study (e.g., combining longitudinal studies to cover a broader swath of the lifespan), and the opportunity to build a more cumulative science (i.e., examining the similarity of effects across studies and potential reasons for dissimilarities). There are also methodological challenges associated with IDA, including the need to account for sampling heterogeneity across studies, to develop commensurate measures across studies, and to account for multiple sources of study differences as they impact hypothesis testing. In this review, we outline potential solutions to these challenges and describe future avenues for developing IDA as a framework for studies in clinical psychology. PMID:23394226

Potential and prospective implementation of carbon nanotubes on next generation aircraft and space vehicles: A review of current and expected applications in aerospace sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gohardani, Omid; Elola, Maialen Chapartegui; Elizetxea, Cristina

2014-10-01

Carbon nanotubes have instigated the interest of many different scientific fields since their authenticated introduction, more than two decades ago. Particularly in aerospace applications, the potential implementations of these advanced materials have been predicted to have a large impact on future aircraft and space vehicles, mainly due to their distinct features, which include superior mechanical, thermal and electrical properties. This article provides the very first consolidated review of the imminent prospects of utilizing carbon nanotubes and nanoparticles in aerospace sciences, based on their recent implementations and predicted future applications. Explicitly, expected carbon nanotube employment in aeronautics and astronautics are identified for commercial aircraft, military aircraft, rotorcraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, satellites, and space launch vehicles. Attention is devoted to future utilization of carbon nanotubes, which may comprise hydrogen storage encapsulation, composite material implementation, lightning protection for aircraft, aircraft icing mitigation, reduced weight of airframes/satellites, and alleviation of challenges related to future space launch. This study further sheds light onto recent actualized implementations of carbon nanotubes in aerospace applications, as well as current and prospective challenges related to their usage in aerospace sciences, encompassing health and safety hazards, large scale manufacturing, achievement of optimum properties, recycling, and environmental impacts.

Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Volk, Valerie

2006-01-01

Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

Surveys for sensitivity to fibers and potential impacts from fiber induced failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butterfield, A. J.

1979-01-01

The surveys for sensitivities to fibers and potential impacts from fiber induced failures begins with a review of the survey work completed to date and then describes an impact study involving four industrial installations located in Virginia. The observations and results from both the surveys and the study provide guidelines for future efforts. The survey work was done with three broad objectives: (1) identify the pieces of potentially vulnerable equipment as candidates for test; (2) support the transfer function work by gaining an understanding of how fibers could get into a building; and (3) support the economic analysis by understanding what would happen if fibers precipitated a failure in an item of equipment.

Potential benefits for propfan technology on derivatives of future short- to medium-range transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldsmith, I. M.; Bowles, J. V.

1980-01-01

It is noted that several NASA-sponsored studies have identified a substantial potential fuel savings for high subsonic speed aircraft utilizing the propfan concept compared to the equivalent technology turbofan aircraft. Attention is given to a feasibility study for propfan-powered short- to medium-haul commercial transport aircraft conducted to evaluate potential fuel savings and identify critical technology requirements using the latest propfan performance data. An analysis is made of the design and performance characteristics of a wing-mounted and two-aft-mounted derivative propfan aircraft configurations, based on a DC-9 Super 80 airframe, which are compared to the baseline turbofan design. Finally, recommendations for further research efforts are also made.

The potential for technology in brief interventions for substance use, and during-session prediction of computer-delivered brief intervention response.

PubMed

Ondersma, Steven J; Grekin, Emily R; Svikis, Dace

2011-01-01

We first provide an overview of the potential of technology in the area of brief interventions for substance use and describe recent projects from our lab that are illustrative of that potential. Second, we present data from a study of during-session predictors of brief intervention response. In a sample of postpartum women (N = 39), several variables showed promise as predictors of later drug use, and a brief index derived from them predicted abstinence with a sensitivity of .7 and a specificity of .89. This promising approach and initial study findings support the importance of future research in this area.

Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skogen, Morten D.; Eilola, Kari; Hansen, Jørgen L. S.; Meier, H. E. Markus; Molchanov, Mikhail S.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.

2014-04-01

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication status was made for a control (1970-2000) and a future climate (2070-2100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.

Areas of high conservation value at risk by plant invaders in Georgia under climate change.

PubMed

Slodowicz, Daniel; Descombes, Patrice; Kikodze, David; Broennimann, Olivier; Müller-Schärer, Heinz

2018-05-01

Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single-species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs.

Can We Power Future Mars Missions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Sturm, Erick J., II; Woolley, Ryan C.; Jordan, James F.

2006-01-01

The Vision for Space Exploration identified the exploration of Mars as one of the key pathways. In response, NASAs Mars Program Office is developing a detailed mission lineup for the next decade that would lead to future explorations. Mission architectures for the next decade include both orbiters and landers. Existing power technologies, which could include solar panels, batteries, radioisotope power systems, and in the future fission power, could support these missions. Second and third decade explorations could target human precursor and human in-situ missions, building on increasingly complex architectures. Some of these could use potential feed forward from earlier Constellation missions to the Moon, discussed in the ESAS study. From a potential Mars Sample Return mission to human missions the complexity of the architectures increases, and with it the delivered mass and power requirements also amplify. The delivered mass at Mars mostly depends on the launch vehicle, while the landed mass might be further limited by EDL technologies, including the aeroshell, parachutes, landing platform, and pinpoint landing. The resulting in-situ mass could be further divided into payload elements and suitable supporting power systems. These power systems can range from tens of watts to multi-kilowatts, influenced by mission type, mission configuration, landing location, mission duration, and season. Regardless, the power system design should match the power needs of these surface assets within a given architecture. Consequently, in this paper we will identify potential needs and bounds of delivered mass and architecture dependent power requirements to surface assets that would enable future in-situ exploration of Mars.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Past, present, and future emissions of HCFC-141b in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziyuan; Yan, Huanghuang; Fang, Xuekun; Gao, Lingyun; Zhai, Zihan; Hu, Jianxin; Zhang, Boya; Zhang, Jianbo

2015-05-01

According to the Montreal Protocol, China is required to phase-out hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by 2030. Compound 1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane (CH3CCl2F, HCFC-141b) has an ozone depleting potential (ODP, 0.11) and global warming potential (GWP, 782), and is widely used in the polyurethane foam and solvent sectors in China. This study compiles a comprehensive emission inventory of HCFC-141b during 2000-2013 and makes a projection to 2050. Our results showed that HCFC-141b emissions in China increased from 0.8 Gg/yr (0.6 CO2-eq Tg/yr) in 2000 to 15.8 Gg/yr (12.4 CO2-eq Tg/yr) in 2013 with an accelerated growth rate. The provincial emission distribution showed that Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are key emission areas in China. A large amount of stock was retained in installed equipment, which may have an impact in the future. For future phasing-out, it was estimated that under the Montreal Planned Phase-out scenario (MPP), the accumulative reduction of HCFC-141b emissions during 2014-2050 would be 3071.0 Gg (2401.5 CO2-eq Tg) compared to that under the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. This study reviewed and predicted HCFC-141b emissions and their environmental impacts in China.

Early management of patients with acute heart failure: state of the art and future directions. A consensus document from the society for academic emergency medicine/heart failure society of America acute heart failure working group.

PubMed

Collins, Sean; Storrow, Alan B; Albert, Nancy M; Butler, Javed; Ezekowitz, Justin; Felker, G Michael; Fermann, Gregory J; Fonarow, Gregg C; Givertz, Michael M; Hiestand, Brian; Hollander, Judd E; Lanfear, David E; Levy, Phillip D; Pang, Peter S; Peacock, W Frank; Sawyer, Douglas B; Teerlink, John R; Lenihan, Daniel J

2015-01-01

Heart failure (HF) afflicts nearly 6 million Americans, resulting in one million emergency department (ED) visits and over one million annual hospital discharges. An aging population and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases is expected to further increase HF prevalence. Emergency providers play a significant role in the management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF). It is crucial that emergency physicians and other providers involved in early management understand the latest developments in diagnostic testing, therapeutics and alternatives to hospitalization. Further, clinical trials must be conducted in the ED in order to improve the evidence base and drive optimal initial therapy for AHF. Should ongoing and future studies suggest early phenotype-driven therapy improves in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes, ED treatment decisions will need to evolve accordingly. The potential impact of future studies which incorporate risk-stratification into ED disposition decisions cannot be underestimated. Predictive instruments that identify a cohort of patients safe for ED discharge, while simultaneously addressing barriers to successful outpatient management, have the potential to significantly impact quality of life and resource expenditures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating reading acquisition: The link between reading outcome and multimodal brain signatures of letter-speech sound learning in prereaders.

PubMed

Karipidis, Iliana I; Pleisch, Georgette; Brandeis, Daniel; Roth, Alexander; Röthlisberger, Martina; Schneebeli, Maya; Walitza, Susanne; Brem, Silvia

2018-05-08

During reading acquisition, neural reorganization of the human brain facilitates the integration of letters and speech sounds, which enables successful reading. Neuroimaging and behavioural studies have established that impaired audiovisual integration of letters and speech sounds is a core deficit in individuals with developmental dyslexia. This longitudinal study aimed to identify neural and behavioural markers of audiovisual integration that are related to future reading fluency. We simulated the first step of reading acquisition by performing artificial-letter training with prereading children at risk for dyslexia. Multiple logistic regressions revealed that our training provides new precursors of reading fluency at the beginning of reading acquisition. In addition, an event-related potential around 400 ms and functional magnetic resonance imaging activation patterns in the left planum temporale to audiovisual correspondences improved cross-validated prediction of future poor readers. Finally, an exploratory analysis combining simultaneously acquired electroencephalography and hemodynamic data suggested that modulation of temporoparietal brain regions depended on future reading skills. The multimodal approach demonstrates neural adaptations to audiovisual integration in the developing brain that are related to reading outcome. Despite potential limitations arising from the restricted sample size, our results may have promising implications both for identifying poor-reading children and for monitoring early interventions.

Extending helicopter operations to meet future integrated transportation needs.

PubMed

Stanton, Neville A; Plant, Katherine L; Roberts, Aaron P; Harvey, Catherine; Thomas, T Glyn

2016-03-01

Helicopters have the potential to be an integral part of the future transport system. They offer a means of rapid transit in an overly populated transport environment. However, one of the biggest limitations on rotary wing flight is their inability to fly in degraded visual conditions in the critical phases of approach and landing. This paper presents a study that developed and evaluated a Head up Display (HUD) to assist rotary wing pilots by extending landing to degraded visual conditions. The HUD was developed with the assistance of the Cognitive Work Analysis method as an approach for analysing the cognitive work of landing the helicopter. The HUD was tested in a fixed based flight simulator with qualified helicopter pilots. A qualitative analysis to assess situation awareness and workload found that the HUD enabled safe landing in degraded conditions whilst simultaneously enhancing situation awareness and reducing workload. Continued development in this area has the potential to extend the operational capability of helicopters in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The future of biotic indices in the ecogenomic era: Integrating (e)DNA metabarcoding in biological assessment of aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Pawlowski, Jan; Kelly-Quinn, Mary; Altermatt, Florian; Apothéloz-Perret-Gentil, Laure; Beja, Pedro; Boggero, Angela; Borja, Angel; Bouchez, Agnès; Cordier, Tristan; Domaizon, Isabelle; Feio, Maria Joao; Filipe, Ana Filipa; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Graf, Wolfram; Herder, Jelger; van der Hoorn, Berry; Iwan Jones, J; Sagova-Mareckova, Marketa; Moritz, Christian; Barquín, Jose; Piggott, Jeremy J; Pinna, Maurizio; Rimet, Frederic; Rinkevich, Buki; Sousa-Santos, Carla; Specchia, Valeria; Trobajo, Rosa; Vasselon, Valentin; Vitecek, Simon; Zimmerman, Jonas; Weigand, Alexander; Leese, Florian; Kahlert, Maria

2018-05-15

The bioassessment of aquatic ecosystems is currently based on various biotic indices that use the occurrence and/or abundance of selected taxonomic groups to define ecological status. These conventional indices have some limitations, often related to difficulties in morphological identification of bioindicator taxa. Recent development of DNA barcoding and metabarcoding could potentially alleviate some of these limitations, by using DNA sequences instead of morphology to identify organisms and to characterize a given ecosystem. In this paper, we review the structure of conventional biotic indices, and we present the results of pilot metabarcoding studies using environmental DNA to infer biotic indices. We discuss the main advantages and pitfalls of metabarcoding approaches to assess parameters such as richness, abundance, taxonomic composition and species ecological values, to be used for calculation of biotic indices. We present some future developments to fully exploit the potential of metabarcoding data and improve the accuracy and precision of their analysis. We also propose some recommendations for the future integration of DNA metabarcoding to routine biomonitoring programs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents☆

PubMed Central

Marotta, Phillip L.; Voisin, Dexter R.

2017-01-01

Objective Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. Methods A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Results Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Conclusions Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation. PMID:28974824

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents.

PubMed

Marotta, Phillip L; Voisin, Dexter R

2017-04-01

Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation.

A Master Plan for the Development of Vocational-Technical Education In New Mexico.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC.

This master plan for vocational education in New Mexico is the result of a study conducted by professional education consultants. The following areas were examined during the study: (1) New Mexico's present manpower problems, (2) market trends of future industrial potential, (3) state resources capable of attracting new industry, (4) adequacy of…

The Past in the Future: Problems and Potentials of Historical Reception Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Klaus Bruhn

1993-01-01

Gives examples of how qualitative methodologies have been employed to study media reception in the present. Identifies some forms of evidence that can creatively fill the gaps in knowledge about media reception in the past. Argues that the field must develop databases documenting media reception, which may broaden the scope of audience research in…

Introducing Engineering in Elementary Education: A 5-Year Study of Teachers and Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diefes-Dux, Heidi A.

2015-01-01

Engineering, when integrated into K-12 education, may offer a number of potential student learning and future success benefits. In a 5-year study, four cohorts of elementary teachers of grades 2 to 4 in a single US school district were provided with teacher professional development with engineering education. Teachers were prepared to teach…

Simulation of Liquid Droplet in Air and on a Solid Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Launglucknavalai, Kevin

Although multiphase gas and liquid phenomena occurs widely in engineering problems, many aspects of multiphase interaction like within droplet dynamics are still not quantified. This study aims to qualify the Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) Interparticle Potential multiphase computational method in order to build a foundation for future multiphase research. This study consists of two overall sections. The first section in Chapter 2 focuses on understanding the LBM method and Interparticle Potential model. It outlines the LBM method and how it relates to macroscopic fluid dynamics. The standard form of LBM is obtained. The perturbation solution obtaining the Navier-Stokes equations from the LBM equation is presented. Finally, the Interparticle Potential model is incorporated into the numerical LBM method. The second section in Chapter 3 presents the verification and validation cases to confirm the behavior of the single-phase and multiphase LBM models. Experimental and analytical results are used briefly to compare with numerical results when possible using Poiseuille channel flow and flow over a cylinder. While presenting the numerical results, practical considerations like converting LBM scale variables to physical scale variables are considered. Multiphase results are verified using Laplaces law and artificial behaviors of the model are explored. In this study, a better understanding of the LBM method and Interparticle Potential model is gained. This allows the numerical method to be used for comparison with experimental results in the future and provides a better understanding of multiphase physics overall.

Potential environmental implications of nanoscale zero-valent iron particles for environmental remediation.

PubMed

Jang, Min-Hee; Lim, Myunghee; Hwang, Yu Sik

2014-01-01

Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) particles are widely used in the field of various environmental contaminant remediation. Although the potential benefits of nZVI are considerable, there is a distinct need to identify any potential risks after environmental exposure. In this respect, we review recent studies on the environmental applications and implications of nZVI, highlighting research gaps and suggesting future research directions. Environmental application of nZVI is briefly summarized, focusing on its unique properties. Ecotoxicity of nZVI is reviewed according to type of organism, including bacteria, terrestrial organisms, and aquatic organisms. The environmental fate and transport of nZVI are also summarized with regards to exposure scenarios. Finally, the current limitations of risk determination are thoroughly provided. The ecotoxicity of nZVI depends on the composition, concentration, size and surface properties of the nanoparticles and the experimental method used, including the species investigated. In addition, the environmental fate and transport of nZVI appear to be complex and depend on the exposure duration and the exposure conditions. To date, field-scale data are limited and only short-term studies using simple exposure methods have been conducted. In this regard, the primary focus of future study should be on 1) the development of an appropriate and valid testing method of the environmental fate and ecotoxicity of reactive nanoparticles used in environmental applications and 2) assessing their potential environmental risks using in situ field scale applications.

Potential environmental implications of nanoscale zero-valent iron particles for environmental remediation

PubMed Central

Jang, Min-Hee; Lim, Myunghee; Hwang, Yu Sik

2014-01-01

Objectives Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) particles are widely used in the field of various environmental contaminant remediation. Although the potential benefits of nZVI are considerable, there is a distinct need to identify any potential risks after environmental exposure. In this respect, we review recent studies on the environmental applications and implications of nZVI, highlighting research gaps and suggesting future research directions. Methods Environmental application of nZVI is briefly summarized, focusing on its unique properties. Ecotoxicity of nZVI is reviewed according to type of organism, including bacteria, terrestrial organisms, and aquatic organisms. The environmental fate and transport of nZVI are also summarized with regards to exposure scenarios. Finally, the current limitations of risk determination are thoroughly provided. Results The ecotoxicity of nZVI depends on the composition, concentration, size and surface properties of the nanoparticles and the experimental method used, including the species investigated. In addition, the environmental fate and transport of nZVI appear to be complex and depend on the exposure duration and the exposure conditions. To date, field-scale data are limited and only short-term studies using simple exposure methods have been conducted. Conclusions In this regard, the primary focus of future study should be on 1) the development of an appropriate and valid testing method of the environmental fate and ecotoxicity of reactive nanoparticles used in environmental applications and 2) assessing their potential environmental risks using in situ field scale applications. PMID:25518840

North American Waterfowl Distributions: Analyzing Long-Term Stability and Case Studies Exploring Potential Drivers of Change

EPA Science Inventory

Knowledge about how species distributions shift through time increases basic ecological understanding, improves species management and conservation, and allows for enhanced predictions about the future. This type of research is difficult to conduct, especially for migratory wate...

Non-Renewal of Probationary Teachers: Negative Retention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nixon, Andy; Packard, Abbot; Douvanis, Gus

2010-01-01

For students, quality teaching means the difference between a bright or potentially dim future. School principals face several challenges that work against recommending contract non-renewal for incompetent teachers. This study investigates the reasons that school principals recommend contract non-renewal of probationary teachers. Targeted…

Architected squirt-flow materials for energy dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Tal; Kurzeja, Patrick; Bertoldi, Katia

2017-12-01

In the present study we explore material architectures that lead to enhanced dissipation properties by taking advantage of squirt-flow - a local flow mechanism triggered by heterogeneities at the pore level. While squirt-flow is a known dominant source of dissipation and seismic attenuation in fluid saturated geological materials, we study its untapped potential to be incorporated in highly deformable elastic materials with embedded fluid-filled cavities for future engineering applications. An analytical investigation, that isolates the squirt-flow mechanism from other potential dissipation mechanisms and considers an idealized setting, predicts high theoretical levels of dissipation achievable by squirt-flow and establishes a set of guidelines for optimal dissipation design. Particular architectures are then investigated via numerical simulations showing that a careful design of the internal voids can lead to an increase of dissipation levels by an order of magnitude, compared with equivalent homogeneous void distributions. Therefore, we suggest squirt-flow as a promising mechanism to be incorporated in future architected materials to effectively and reversibly dissipate energy.

The cyclical nature of depressed mood and future risk: Depression, rumination, and deficits in emotional clarity in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Rubenstein, Liza M.; Hamilton, Jessica L.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Flynn, Megan; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2015-01-01

Deficits in emotional clarity, the understanding and awareness of one’s own emotions and the ability to label them appropriately, are associated with increased depressive symptoms. Surprisingly, few studies have examined factors associated with reduction in emotional clarity for adolescents, such as depressed mood and ruminative response styles. The present study examined rumination as a potential mediator of the relationship between depressive symptoms and changes in emotional clarity, focusing on sex differences. Participants included 223 adolescents (51.60% female, Mean age = 12.39). Controlling for baseline levels of emotional clarity, initial depressive symptoms predicted decreases in emotional clarity. Further, rumination prospectively mediated the relationship between baseline depressive symptoms and follow-up emotional clarity for girls, but not boys. Findings suggest that depressive symptoms may increase girls’ tendencies to engage in repetitive, negative thinking, which may reduce the ability to understand and label emotions, a potentially cyclical process that confers vulnerability to future depression. PMID:25931160

Clinical trial perspective for adult and juvenile Huntington's disease using genetically-engineered mesenchymal stem cells

PubMed Central

Deng, Peter; Torrest, Audrey; Pollock, Kari; Dahlenburg, Heather; Annett, Geralyn; Nolta, Jan A.; Fink, Kyle D.

2016-01-01

Progress to date from our group and others indicate that using genetically-engineered mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) to secrete brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) supports our plan to submit an Investigational New Drug application to the Food and Drug Administration for the future planned Phase 1 safety and tolerability trial of MSC/BDNF in patients with Huntington's disease (HD). There are also potential applications of this approach beyond HD. Our biological delivery system for BDNF sets the precedent for adult stem cell therapy in the brain and could potentially be modified for other neurodegenerative disorders such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA), Alzheimer's disease, and some forms of Parkinson's disease. The MSC/BDNF product could also be considered for studies of regeneration in traumatic brain injury, spinal cord and peripheral nerve injury. This work also provides a platform for our future gene editing studies, since we will again use MSCs to deliver the needed molecules into the central nervous system. PMID:27335539

Biofuel Feedstock Assessment For Selected Countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kline, Keith L; Oladosu, Gbadebo A; Wolfe, Amy K

2008-02-01

Findings from biofuel feedstock production assessments and projections of future supply are presented and discussed. The report aims to improve capabilities to assess the degree to which imported biofuel could contribute to meeting future U.S. targets to reduce dependence on imported oil. The study scope was focused to meet time and resource requirements. A screening process identified Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, India, Mexico, and the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) region for initial analysis, given their likely role in future feedstock supply relevant to U.S. markets. Supply curves for selected feedstocks in these countries are projected for 2012, 2017 andmore » 2027. The supply functions, along with calculations to reflect estimated supplies available for export and/or biofuel production, were provided to DOE for use in a broader energy market allocation study. Potential cellulosic supplies from crop and forestry residues and perennials were also estimated for 2017 and 2027. The analysis identified capacity to potentially double or triple feedstock production by 2017 in some cases. A majority of supply growth is derived from increasing the area cultivated (especially sugarcane in Brazil). This is supplemented by improving yields and farming practices. Most future supplies of corn and wheat are projected to be allocated to food and feed. Larger shares of future supplies of sugarcane, soybean and palm oil production will be available for export or biofuel. National policies are catalyzing investments in biofuel industries to meet targets for fuel blending that generally fall in the 5-10% range. Social and environmental concerns associated with rapid expansion of feedstock production are considered. If the 2017 projected feedstock supply calculated as 'available' for export or biofuel were converted to fuel, it would represent the equivalent of about 38 billion gallons of gasoline. Sugarcane and bagasse dominate the available supply, representing 64% of the total. Among the nations studied, Brazil is the source of about two-thirds of available supplies, followed distantly by Argentina (12%), India and the CBI region.« less

Biofuel Feedstock Assessment for Selected Countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kline, K.L.; Oladosu, G.A.; Wolfe, A.K.

2008-02-18

Findings from biofuel feedstock production assessments and projections of future supply are presented and discussed. The report aims to improve capabilities to assess the degree to which imported biofuel could contribute to meeting future U.S. targets to reduce dependence on imported oil. The study scope was focused to meet time and resource requirements. A screening process identified Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, India, Mexico, and the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) region for initial analysis, given their likely role in future feedstock supply relevant to U.S. markets. Supply curves for selected feedstocks in these countries are projected for 2012, 2017 andmore » 2027. The supply functions, along with calculations to reflect estimated supplies available for export and/or biofuel production, were provided to DOE for use in a broader energy market allocation study. Potential cellulosic supplies from crop and forestry residues and perennials were also estimated for 2017 and 2027. The analysis identified capacity to potentially double or triple feedstock production by 2017 in some cases. A majority of supply growth is derived from increasing the area cultivated (especially sugarcane in Brazil). This is supplemented by improving yields and farming practices. Most future supplies of corn and wheat are projected to be allocated to food and feed. Larger shares of future supplies of sugarcane, soybean and palm oil production will be available for export or biofuel. National policies are catalyzing investments in biofuel industries to meet targets for fuel blending that generally fall in the 5-10% range. Social and environmental concerns associated with rapid expansion of feedstock production are considered. If the 2017 projected feedstock supply calculated as ‘available’ for export or biofuel were converted to fuel, it would represent the equivalent of about 38 billion gallons of gasoline. Sugarcane and bagasse dominate the available supply, representing 64% of the total. Among the nations studied, Brazil is the source of about two-thirds of available supplies, followed distantly by Argentina (12%), India and the CBI region.« less

Costa Rican data synthesis indicates oil, gas potential

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barrientos, J.; Bottazzi, G.; Fernandez, A.

The hydrocarbon exploration data base in Costa Rica, gathered through various recent periods, indicates promising hydrocarbon potential in the country. During 1980--94, Recope SA, the state petroleum company, performed a series of studies to evaluate the petroleum potential in the whole Costa Rican territory. As a first step, the information compiled during previous studies was re-evaluated, and later new information was collected with the aid of foreign governments and cooperating institutions. A new exploratory era began with the Costa Rican Congress` approval in 1994 of the Hydrocarbon Law, which allows private companies to participate in hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation. Thismore » article brings together some highlights about Costa Rica oil potential and gives basic information on future hydrocarbon exploration and development under the regulation of the new Hydrocarbon Law.« less

The Future of Virtual Reality in Education: A Future Oriented Meta Analysis of the Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passig, David

2009-01-01

Many have elaborated on the potential of virtual reality (VR) in learning. This article attempts at organizing the literature in this issue in order to better identify indicators that can account for future valid trends, and seeks to bring to attention how authors who wrote about the future of VR in education confused futures' terms and produced…

Impact Assessment of Global Temperature Perturbations on Urban and Regional Ozone Levels in South Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; John, Kuruvilla; Farooqui, Zuber

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts significant temperature increases over the century which constitutes the pulse of climate variability in a region. A modeling study was performed to identify the potential impact of temperature perturbations on tropospheric ozone concentrations in South Texas. A future case modeling scenario which incorporates appropriate emission reduction strategies without accounting for climatic inconsistencies was used in this study. The photochemical modeling was undertaken for a high ozone episode of 13-20 September 1999, and a future modeling scenario was projected for ozone episode days in 2007 utilizing the meteorological conditions prevalent in the base year. The temperatures were increased uniformly throughout the simulation domain and through the vertical layers by 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C, respectively in the future year modeling case. These temperature perturbations represented the outcome of extreme climate change within the study region. Significantly large changes in peak ozone concentrations were predicted by the photochemical model. For the 6°C temperature perturbation, the greatest amplification in the maximum 8-h ozone concentrations within urban areas of the modeling domain was approximately 12 ppb. In addition, transboundary flux from major industrialized urban areas played a major role in supplementing the high ozone concentrations during the perturbed temperature scenarios. The Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is currently proposing stricter 8-h ozone standards. The effect of temperature perturbations on ozone exceedances based on current and potential stringent future National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) was also studied. Temperatures had an appreciable spatial impact on the 8-h ozone exceedances with a considerable increase in spatial area exceeding the NAAQS for the 8-h ozone levels within the study region for each successive augmentation in temperature. The number of exceedances of the 8-h ozone standard increased significantly with each degree rise of temperature with the problem becoming even more acute in light of stricter future proposed standards of ozone.

The Development of B2C E-Commerce in Greece: Current Situation and Future Potential.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kardaras, Dimitris; Papathanassiou, Eleutherios

2000-01-01

Reports on the results of a survey of 120 companies in Greece that evaluated the potential of business to customer (B2C) Internet applications and investigated how the Internet and e-commerce can offer new opportunities for businesses to improve their customers' satisfaction. Discusses electronic commerce problems and future technology. (Contains…

Residential clothes dryer market assessment. Topical report, February 1995-November 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul, D.D.; Ide, B.E.

1996-02-01

The objective of this project was to provide a technology assessment of the residential clothes dryer market with the intent of identifying the most competitive gas technology for future market condition scenarios. This study included a review of both foreign and domestic clothes drying technologies employing either gas or electric heating elements. A review of microwave and heat pump drying technologies was also included in the analysis. This report examines the potential future opportunities and threats for the gas industry with regard to residential clothes drying.

Payload accommodations. Avionics payload support architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Creasy, Susan L.; Levy, C. D.

1990-01-01

Concepts for vehicle and payload avionics architectures for future NASA programs, including the Assured Shuttle Access program, Space Station Freedom (SSF), Shuttle-C, Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS), and the Lunar/Mars programs are discussed. Emphasis is on the potential available to increase payload services which will be required in the future, while decreasing the operational cost/complexity by utilizing state of the art advanced avionics systems and a distributed processing architecture. Also addressed are the trade studies required to determine the optimal degree of vehicle (NASA) to payload (customer) separation and the ramifications of these decisions.

Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie

This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

Analyzing Potential Grid Impacts from Future In-Motion Roadway Wireless Power Transfer Scenarios: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Gonder, Jeffrey; Jorgenson, Jennie

This work examines the grid impact of in-motion roadway wireless power transfer through the examination of the electrification of high-capacity roadways inside a metropolitan area. The work uses data from a regional travel study and the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Performance Monitoring System to estimate the electrified roadway's hourly power use throughout a week. The data are then combined with hourly grid load estimates for the same metropolitan area to determine the overlay of traditional grid load with additional load from a future electrified roadway.

Thermal Diffusivity and Conductivity in Ceramic Matrix Fiber Composite Materials - Literature Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R.G. Quinn

A technical literature review was conducted to gain an understanding of the state of the art method, problems, results, and future of thermal diffusivity/conductivity of matrix-fiber composites for high temperature applications. This paper summarizes the results of test method development and theory. Results from testing on various sample types are discussed with concentration on the anisotropic characteristics of matrix-fiber composites, barriers to heat flow, and notable microstructure observations. The conclusion presents some observations from the technical literature, drawbacks of current information and discusses potential needs for future testing.

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 7: Study recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Research and analysis tasks to alleviate negative impacts, to augment positive impacts, or to better understand the impacts produced by the potential introduction of the alternate transportation technologies are identified. The project team's recommendations on research and analysis efforts which have resulted from the technology assessment are provided. Many of the recommendations apply to the future supply of intercity passenger transportation services, categorized by mode. Other recommendations pertain to broad issues in intercity transportation--e.g., finance, regulation, traveler values--that will affect all modes.

Origin and Future of Plasmonic Optical Tweezers

PubMed Central

Huang, Jer-Shing; Yang, Ya-Tang

2015-01-01

Plasmonic optical tweezers can overcome the diffraction limits of conventional optical tweezers and enable the trapping of nanoscale objects. Extension of the trapping and manipulation of nanoscale objects with nanometer position precision opens up unprecedented opportunities for applications in the fields of biology, chemistry and statistical and atomic physics. Potential applications include direct molecular manipulation, lab-on-a-chip applications for viruses and vesicles and the study of nanoscale transport. This paper reviews the recent research progress and development bottlenecks and provides an overview of possible future directions in this field. PMID:28347051

Origin and Future of Plasmonic Optical Tweezers.

PubMed

Huang, Jer-Shing; Yang, Ya-Tang

2015-06-12

Plasmonic optical tweezers can overcome the diffraction limits of conventional optical tweezers and enable the trapping of nanoscale objects. Extension of the trapping and manipulation of nanoscale objects with nanometer position precision opens up unprecedented opportunities for applications in the fields of biology, chemistry and statistical and atomic physics. Potential applications include direct molecular manipulation, lab-on-a-chip applications for viruses and vesicles and the study of nanoscale transport. This paper reviews the recent research progress and development bottlenecks and provides an overview of possible future directions in this field.

Participatory design of a social enterprise for rehabilitees.

PubMed

Konsti-Laakso, Suvi; Koskela, Virpi; Martikainen, Suvi-Jonna; Melkas, Helinä; Mellanen, Laura

2016-09-27

Social enterprises are often seen as a source of new and innovative solutions to persistent societal problems and a means for better inclusion of employees and customers. Because social enterprises combine business logic and social goals, they have vast potential to renew business and social life; therefore, it is vital to understand how their creation can be initiated and supported. This study provides an overview of the participatory design process for a new social enterprise as it appears in practice. The methods used in this case study guided the participants - mental health and substance abuse rehabilitees - in the co-creation and refinement of a business idea. The methods used enabled participants to acknowledge their own strengths or preferences for their potential future work, which was a unique means of establishing a new social enterprise. Social empowerment of the participants/future employees of the social enterprise formed the important, intangible capital in this case. By definition, the core of social enterprises is the customer- and employee-driven nature. This study clarifies how a social enterprise functions as a laboratory of social innovation at the local and community levels.

Production of gravitational waves during preheating with nonminimal coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Chengjie; Wu, Puxun; Yu, Hongwei

2018-04-01

We study the preheating and the in-process production of gravitational waves (GWs) after inflation in which the inflaton is nonminimally coupled to the curvature in a self-interacting quartic potential with the method of lattice simulation. We find that the nonminimal coupling enhances the amplitude of the density spectrum of inflaton quanta, and as a result, the peak value of the GW spectrum generated during preheating is enhanced as well and might reach the limit of detection in future GW experiments. The peaks of the GW spectrum not only exhibit distinctive characteristics as compared to those of minimally coupled inflaton potentials but also imprint information on the nonminimal coupling and the parametric resonance, and thus the detection of these peaks in the future will provide us a new avenue to reveal the physics of the early universe.

Investigating the potential of e-Learning in healthcare postgraduate curricula: a structural equation model.

PubMed

Katharaki, Maria; Daskalakis, Stelios; Mantas, John

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to assess the future adaptability of e-Learning platforms within postgraduate modules. An ongoing empirical assessment was conducted amongst postgraduate students, based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The current paper presents the outcomes from the second phase of a survey, involving fifty six participants. Data analysis was performed using a structural equation model, based on partial least squares. Results highlighted the very strong effect of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use to attitude towards using e-Learning platforms. Consequently, attitude towards use proved to be a very strong predictor of behavioral intention. Perceived usefulness, on the contrary, did not prove to have an effect to behavioral intention. Implications on the potential of using e-Learning platforms are discussed along with limitations and future directions of the study.

Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mishra, U.; Jastrow, J.D.; Matamala, R.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Ping, S.L.; Michaelson, G.J.; Fan, Z.; Miller, R.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Tarnocai, C.; Kuhry, P.; Riley, W.J.; Schaefer, K.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Jorgenson, M.T.; Hinzman, L.D.

2013-01-01

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

Monitoring and control requirement definition study for Dispersed Storage and Generation (DSG). Volume 3, appendix B: State of the art, trends, and potential growth of selected DSG technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Present and future relatively small (30 MW) energy systems, such as solar thermal electric, photovoltaic, wind, fuel cell, storage battery, hydro, and cogeneration can help achieve national energy goals and can be dispersed throughout the distribution portion of an electric utility system. Based on current projections, it appears that dispersed storage and generation (DSG) electrical energy will comprise only a small portion, from 4 to 10 percent, of the national total by the end of this century. In general, the growth potential for DSG seems favorable in the long term because of finite fossil energy resources and increasing fuel prices. Recent trends, especially in the institutional and regulatory fields, favor greater use of the DSGs for the future.

Monitoring and control requirement definition study for Dispersed Storage and Generation (DSG). Volume 3, appendix B: State of the art, trends, and potential growth of selected DSG technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1980-10-01

Present and future relatively small (30 MW) energy systems, such as solar thermal electric, photovoltaic, wind, fuel cell, storage battery, hydro, and cogeneration can help achieve national energy goals and can be dispersed throughout the distribution portion of an electric utility system. Based on current projections, it appears that dispersed storage and generation (DSG) electrical energy will comprise only a small portion, from 4 to 10 percent, of the national total by the end of this century. In general, the growth potential for DSG seems favorable in the long term because of finite fossil energy resources and increasing fuel prices. Recent trends, especially in the institutional and regulatory fields, favor greater use of the DSGs for the future.

Quantum technology past, present, future: quantum energetics (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Sang H.

2017-04-01

Since the development of quantum physics in the early part of the 1900s, this field of study has made remarkable contributions to our civilization. Some of these advances include lasers, light-emitting diodes (LED), sensors, spectroscopy, quantum dots, quantum gravity and quantum entanglements. In 1998, the NASA Langley Research Center established a quantum technology committee to monitor the progress in this area and initiated research to determine the potential of quantum technology for future NASA missions. The areas of interest in quantum technology at NASA included fundamental quantum-optics materials associated with quantum dots and quantum wells, device-oriented photonic crystals, smart optics, quantum conductors, quantum information and computing, teleportation theorem, and quantum energetics. A brief review of the work performed, the progress made in advancing these technologies, and the potential NASA applications of quantum technology will be presented.

Machine Learning Approaches for Clinical Psychology and Psychiatry.

PubMed

Dwyer, Dominic B; Falkai, Peter; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos

2018-05-07

Machine learning approaches for clinical psychology and psychiatry explicitly focus on learning statistical functions from multidimensional data sets to make generalizable predictions about individuals. The goal of this review is to provide an accessible understanding of why this approach is important for future practice given its potential to augment decisions associated with the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of people suffering from mental illness using clinical and biological data. To this end, the limitations of current statistical paradigms in mental health research are critiqued, and an introduction is provided to critical machine learning methods used in clinical studies. A selective literature review is then presented aiming to reinforce the usefulness of machine learning methods and provide evidence of their potential. In the context of promising initial results, the current limitations of machine learning approaches are addressed, and considerations for future clinical translation are outlined.

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Holger; Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Linsbauer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Due to the expected atmospheric warming, mountain glaciers will retreat, potentially collapse or even vanish completely during the 21st century. When overdeepened parts of the glacier bed are exposed in the course of glacier retreat, glacier lakes can form. Such lakes have a potential for hydropower production, which is an important source of renewable energy. Furthermore they are important elements in the perception of high-mountain landscapes and they can compensate the loss of landscape attractiveness from glacier shrinkage to a certain degree. However, glacier lakes are also a potential source of serious flood and debris flow hazards, especially in densely populated mountain ranges. Thus, methods for early detection of sites with potential lake formation are important for early planning and development of protection concepts. In this contribution we present a multi-scale approach to detect sites with potential future lake formation on four different levels of detail. The methods are developed, tested and - as far as possible - verified in the Swiss Alps; but they can be applied to mountain regions all over the world. On a first level, potential overdeepenings are estimated by selecting flat parts (slope < 5°) of the current glacier surface based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. The same input data are used on the second level for a manual detection of overdeepenings, which are expected at locations where the following three criteria apply: (a) A distinct increase of the glacier surface slope in down-glacier direction; (b) an enlarged width followed by a narrow glacier part; and (c) regions with compressive flow (no crevasses) followed by extending flow (heavily crevassed). On the third level, more sophisticated approaches to model the glacier bed topography are applied to get more quantitative information on potential future lakes. Based on the results of this level, scenarios of future lake outbursts can be modeled with simple flow routing models. Finally, for potentially critical or dangerous situations, on-site geophysical measurements such as ground penetrating radar applied on different sections of a glacier can be performed on the fourth level to investigate the overdeepenings in more detail. These methods are verified based on historical data from the Trift glacier in the Bernese Alps, where a lake formed in front of the glacier since the 1990s up to the present. Potential future lake scenarios are presented for two regions in the Swiss Alps and the outburst potential of such future lakes is investigated for the Bernina region. The proposed method is an important step towards early detection of new potential flood hazards related to rapid glacier retreat. At the same time, it can form a basis for an integrative risk and benefit management relating to new glacier lakes.

Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Teh, Lydia C. L.; Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Khalfallah, Myriam; Pauly, Daniel; Palomares, Maria L. Deng; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W. L.

2018-01-01

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region. PMID:29718919

Interactions Between Land Use, Climate and Hydropower in Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sample, J.

2014-12-01

To promote the transition towards a low carbon economy, the Scottish Government has adopted ambitious energy targets, including generating all electricity from renewable sources by 2020. To achieve this, continued investment will be required across a range of sustainable technologies. Hydropower has a long history in Scotland and the present-day operational capacity of ~1.5 GW makes a substantial contribution to the national energy budget. In addition, there remains potential for ~500 MW of further development, mostly in the form of small to medium size run-of-river schemes. Climate change is expected to lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, leading to changes in both the magnitude and seasonality of river flows. There may also be indirect effects, such as changing land use, enhanced evapotranspiration rates and an increased demand for irrigation, all of which could affect the water available for energy generation. Preliminary assessments of hydropower commonly use flow duration curves (FDCs) to estimate the power generation potential at proposed new sites. In this study, we use spatially distributed modelling to generate daily and monthly FDCs for a range of Scottish catchments using a variety of future land use and climate change scenarios. These are then used to assess Scotland's future hydropower potential under different flow regimes. The results are spatially variable and include large uncertainties, but some consistent patterns emerge. Many locations are predicted to experience enhanced seasonality, with lower power generation potential in the summer months and greater potential during the autumn and winter. Some sites may require infrastructural changes in order to continue operating at optimum efficiency. We discuss the implications and limitations of our results, and highlight design and adaptation options for maximising the resilience of hydropower installations under changing future flow patterns.

Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf.

PubMed

Wabnitz, Colette C C; Lam, Vicky W Y; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Teh, Lydia C L; Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Khalfallah, Myriam; Pauly, Daniel; Palomares, Maria L Deng; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W L

2018-01-01

Climate change-reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions-is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David

The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specificmore » section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings potential back to the underlying strategies and combination of efficiency and abatement policy instruments represented by each scenario, this analysis also had other important but often overlooked findings.« less

Global-local methodologies and their application to nonlinear analysis. [for structural postbuckling study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

1986-01-01

An assessment is made of the potential of different global-local analysis strategies for predicting the nonlinear and postbuckling responses of structures. Two postbuckling problems of composite panels are used as benchmarks and the application of different global-local methodologies to these benchmarks is outlined. The key elements of each of the global-local strategies are discussed and future research areas needed to realize the full potential of global-local methodologies are identified.

Perspectives on energy storage wheels for space station application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglevie, R. E.

1984-01-01

Several of the issues of the workshop are addressed from the perspective of a potential Space Station developer and energy wheel user. Systems' considerations are emphasized rather than component technology. The potential of energy storage wheel (ESW) concept is discussed. The current status of the technology base is described. Justification for advanced technology development is also discussed. The study concludes that energy storage in wheels is an attractive concept for immediate technology development and future Space Station application.

Micro-RNAs as Potential Predictors of Response to Breast Cancer Systemic Therapy: Future Clinical Implications

PubMed Central

Campos-Parra, Alma D.; Cuamani Mitznahuatl, Gerardo; Pedroza-Torres, Abraham; Vázquez Romo, Rafael; Porras Reyes, Fany Iris; López-Urrutia, Eduardo; Pérez-Plasencia, Carlos

2017-01-01

Despite advances in diagnosis and new treatments such as targeted therapies, breast cancer (BC) is still the most prevalent tumor in women worldwide and the leading cause of death. The principal obstacle for successful BC treatment is the acquired or de novo resistance of the tumors to the systemic therapy (chemotherapy, endocrine, and targeted therapies) that patients receive. In the era of personalized treatment, several studies have focused on the search for biomarkers capable of predicting the response to this therapy; microRNAs (miRNAs) stand out among these markers due to their broad spectrum or potential clinical applications. miRNAs are conserved small non-coding RNAs that act as negative regulators of gene expression playing an important role in several cellular processes, such as cell proliferation, autophagy, genomic stability, and apoptosis. We reviewed recent data that describe the role of miRNAs as potential predictors of response to systemic treatments in BC. Furthermore, upon analyzing the collected published information, we noticed that the overexpression of miR-155, miR-222, miR-125b, and miR-21 predicts the resistance to the most common systemic treatments; nonetheless, the function of these particular miRNAs must be carefully studied and further analyses are still necessary to increase knowledge about their role and future potential clinical uses in BC. PMID:28574440

Micro-RNAs as Potential Predictors of Response to Breast Cancer Systemic Therapy: Future Clinical Implications.

PubMed

Campos-Parra, Alma D; Mitznahuatl, Gerardo Cuamani; Pedroza-Torres, Abraham; Romo, Rafael Vázquez; Reyes, Fany Iris Porras; López-Urrutia, Eduardo; Pérez-Plasencia, Carlos

2017-06-02

Despite advances in diagnosis and new treatments such as targeted therapies, breast cancer (BC) is still the most prevalent tumor in women worldwide and the leading cause of death. The principal obstacle for successful BC treatment is the acquired or de novo resistance of the tumors to the systemic therapy (chemotherapy, endocrine, and targeted therapies) that patients receive. In the era of personalized treatment, several studies have focused on the search for biomarkers capable of predicting the response to this therapy; microRNAs (miRNAs) stand out among these markers due to their broad spectrum or potential clinical applications. miRNAs are conserved small non-coding RNAs that act as negative regulators of gene expression playing an important role in several cellular processes, such as cell proliferation, autophagy, genomic stability, and apoptosis. We reviewed recent data that describe the role of miRNAs as potential predictors of response to systemic treatments in BC. Furthermore, upon analyzing the collected published information, we noticed that the overexpression of miR-155, miR-222, miR-125b, and miR-21 predicts the resistance to the most common systemic treatments; nonetheless, the function of these particular miRNAs must be carefully studied and further analyses are still necessary to increase knowledge about their role and future potential clinical uses in BC.

Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies.

PubMed

Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

2016-03-10

Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. People are not needed in this study. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. The methodological fundamentals of formal 3-20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

How valid are future generations' arguments for preserving wilderness?

Treesearch

Thomas A. More; James R. Averill; Thomas H. Stevens

2000-01-01

We are often urged to preserve wilderness for the sake of future generations. Future generations consist of potential persons who are mute stakeholders in the decisions of today. Many claims about the rights of future generations or our present obligations to them have been vigorously advanced and just as vigorously denied. Recent theorists, however, have argued for a...

Social Issues: The Potential Contribution of Primary Science and Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skamp, Keith

1987-01-01

While the secondary curriculum is often considered an appropriate focus for future-directed studies, elementary science and technology education can contribute significantly to the socialization process. Science education can also help shape youngsters' attitudes and capacity to understand and influence scientific and technological impacts on…

A Bright Future for Interdisciplinary Multilingualism Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comanaru, Ruxandra-S.; Dewaele, Jean-Marc

2015-01-01

Multilingualism is a prevalent reality in today's world. From an individual level to a societal one, multilingualism incorporates many aspects that have been studied extensively by diverse social research disciplines. The present article will explore the potential directions which multilingualism research can take, concentrating mainly on the…

Strategic Issues: Priorities for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alamo Community Coll. District, San Antonio, TX.

Strategic priorities for the Alamo Community College District (ACCD) are identified based on conclusions drawn by the ACCD Community Advisory Council from studies of: (1) Bexar County population characteristics and trends; (2) community economic and social priorities; (3) college enrollment potential; (4) needs and characteristics of the ACCD's…

Applications of Human Factors in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajulu, Sudhakar; Margerum, Sarah

2008-01-01

The main question for human factors practitioners is to determine if the user population can be accommodated within a design. Given the wide range of variables feeding into a design, just one of which is human factors, oftentimes designers will have restrictions that may potentially impact the level of accommodation. This paper focuses on two case studies where there have been impacts at the design level that may be detrimental to the ability of the design to meet certain criteria. The studies use novel approaches to determine what, if any, changes in population accommodation levels have occurred and what factors are important when manipulating the design in the future. The results of these studies provide a backbone for future analyses when working with design considerations.

Explanation of Change (EoC) Study: Considerations and Implementation Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bitten, Robert E.; Emmons, Debra L.; Hart, Matthew J.; Bordi, Francesco; Scolese, Christopher; Hinners, Noel

2013-01-01

This paper discusses the implementation of considerations resulting from a study investigating the cost change experienced by historical NASA science missions. The study investigated historical milestone and monthly status report documentation followed by interviews with key project personnel. The reasons for cost change were binned as being external to NASA, external to the project and internal to the project relative to the project's planning and execution. Based on the results of the binning process and the synthesis of project meetings and interviews, ten considerations were made with the objective to decrease the potential for cost change in future missions. Although no one magic bullet consideration was discovered, the considerations taken as a whole should help reduce cost and schedule change in future NASA missions.

Perception of aircraft Deviation Cues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Lynne; Azuma, Ronald; Fox, Jason; Verma, Savita; Lozito, Sandra

2005-01-01

To begin to address the need for new displays, required by a future airspace concept to support new roles that will be assigned to flight crews, a study of potentially informative display cues was undertaken. Two cues were tested on a simple plan display - aircraft trajectory and flight corridor. Of particular interest was the speed and accuracy with which participants could detect an aircraft deviating outside its flight corridor. Presence of the trajectory cue significantly reduced participant reaction time to a deviation while the flight corridor cue did not. Although non-significant, the flight corridor cue seemed to have a relationship with the accuracy of participants judgments rather than their speed. As this is the second of a series of studies, these issues will be addressed further in future studies.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

PubMed

Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena

2016-01-01

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species.

Future directions for positive body image research.

PubMed

Halliwell, Emma

2015-06-01

The emergence of positive body image research during the last 10 years represents an important shift in the body image literature. The existing evidence provides a strong empirical basis for the study of positive body image and research has begun to address issues of age, gender, ethnicity, culture, development, and intervention in relation to positive body image. This article briefly reviews the existing evidence before outlining directions for future research. Specifically, six areas for future positive body image research are outlined: (a) conceptualization, (b) models, (c) developmental factors, (d) social interactions, (e) cognitive processing style, and (f) interventions. Finally, the potential role of positive body image as a protective factor within the broader body image literature is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current and Future Developments in Air Traffic Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Joseph; Green, Steven M.

1999-01-01

Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications services in the industrial sector of the United States are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research market suitability analysis; (2) market development; (3) end use matching; (4) industrial application studies; and (5) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2, 3, and 4 digit SIC, primary fuel. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed.

Alzheimer's disease master regulators analysis: search for potential molecular targets and drug repositioning candidates.

PubMed

Vargas, D M; De Bastiani, M A; Zimmer, E R; Klamt, F

2018-06-23

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a multifactorial and complex neuropathology that involves impairment of many intricate molecular mechanisms. Despite recent advances, AD pathophysiological characterization remains incomplete, which hampers the development of effective treatments. In fact, currently, there are no effective pharmacological treatments for AD. Integrative strategies such as transcription regulatory network and master regulator analyses exemplify promising new approaches to study complex diseases and may help in the identification of potential pharmacological targets. In this study, we used transcription regulatory network and master regulator analyses on transcriptomic data of human hippocampus to identify transcription factors (TFs) that can potentially act as master regulators in AD. All expression profiles were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus database using the GEOquery package. A normal hippocampus transcription factor-centered regulatory network was reconstructed using the ARACNe algorithm. Master regulator analysis and two-tail gene set enrichment analysis were employed to evaluate the inferred regulatory units in AD case-control studies. Finally, we used a connectivity map adaptation to prospect new potential therapeutic interventions by drug repurposing. We identified TFs with already reported involvement in AD, such as ATF2 and PARK2, as well as possible new targets for future investigations, such as CNOT7, CSRNP2, SLC30A9, and TSC22D1. Furthermore, Connectivity Map Analysis adaptation suggested the repositioning of six FDA-approved drugs that can potentially modulate master regulator candidate regulatory units (Cefuroxime, Cyproterone, Dydrogesterone, Metrizamide, Trimethadione, and Vorinostat). Using a transcription factor-centered regulatory network reconstruction we were able to identify several potential molecular targets and six drug candidates for repositioning in AD. Our study provides further support for the use of bioinformatics tools as exploratory strategies in neurodegenerative diseases research, and also provides new perspectives on molecular targets and drug therapies for future investigation and validation in AD.

Can body composition be used to optimize the dose of platinum chemotherapy in lung cancer? A feasibility study.

PubMed

Crosby, Vincent; D'Souza, Catherine; Bristow, Carina; Proffitt, Amy; Hussain, Asmah; Potter, Vanessa; Hennig, Ivo; O'Connor, Richard; Baracos, Vickie; Wilcock, Andrew

2017-04-01

Current methods of dosing platinum-based chemotherapy are suboptimal. Potentially, taking lean body mass into account may help. To inform the design of a future study, we first examined the feasibility and acceptability of such an approach using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) and explored aspects suggestive of over- and under-dosing. Patients with lung cancer offered platinum-based chemotherapy over 1 year were identified and, if eligible, invited to take part in a prospective feasibility study. Questionnaires examined acceptability of the DEXA scan and of a future study that randomized between traditional dosing and one adjusted according to body composition. Dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) and a lack of neutropenia explored potential over- and under-dosing, respectively. Of the 173 patients offered chemotherapy, 123 (71%) were ineligible, mostly because of failing entry criteria (84, 49%). Of the 50 approached, 18 (36%) participated, most receiving carboplatin, with 17 providing data. All found a DEXA scan acceptable; other assessments were fully completed, except nadir and pre-chemotherapy blood counts. Most (94%) were prepared to take part in a future study, although the additional hospital visits for a nadir blood count were unpopular with some. Five (29%) patients experienced six episodes of DLT which resulted in discontinuation (3), dose reduction (2) or change to a less toxic regimen (1). Nine (60%) patients experienced either no (2) or inconsistent (7) neutropenia. A randomized trial appears acceptable and feasible in patients receiving carboplatin. Adjustment of our entry criteria and avoiding a hospital visit for a nadir blood count should aid recruitment.

A review of stairway falls and stair negotiation: Lessons learned and future needs to reduce injury.

PubMed

Jacobs, Jesse V

2016-09-01

Stairways are a common location for falls, and they result in a disproportionate risk of death or severe injury. Stairway falls are a significant problem across the lifespan and are often coincident with risky behaviors during stair use. The mechanics of successful stair negotiation for healthy young and older adults have been well described. These studies imply that current stair design does not offer an optimal universal design to meet the needs of older adults or people with health conditions. In addition, impaired stair negotiation associates with more than impaired strength, including functional impairments of cognitive load, sensory function and central motor coordination. Identification of behavioral strategies or stairway environments that assist or hinder recovery from a loss of balance on stairs remains incomplete. Therefore, future studies should investigate the mechanisms of balance recovery on stairs as well as the effectiveness of environmental interventions to mitigate stairway falls and injuries. Potential areas for evaluation may include modifying stair dimensions, surfaces, handrails, visual cues, and removing distractors of attention. Studies should also evaluate combinatorial interventions on person-related factors, such as behavioral interventions to decrease risky behaviors during stair use as well as interventions on cognitive, sensory, and motor functions relevant to stair use. Moreover, future studies should take advantage of new technologies to record stair use outside the laboratory in order to identify people or locations at risk for stairway falls. Such studies would inform the potential for broad-spectrum programs that decrease the risk of stairway falls and injuries. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better-adapted canola varieties can be justified, and the potential value of a California canola industry both now and in the future. Winter annual crops like canola use rainfall in a Mediterranean climate like California more efficiently than spring or summer crops. Our results suggest that under current production costs and seed prices, dry farmed canola will have good potential in certain areas of the California. Canola yields decline with annual winter precipitation, however economically viable yields are still achieved at relatively precipitation levels (200 mm). Results from simulation, combined with related economic modeling (reported elsewhere) suggest that canola will be viable in a variety of production systems in the northern Sacramento Valley and some coastal locations, even under drier future climate scenarios. The in-field evaluation of Australian canola varieties should contribute to maintain or improving resource use efficiency and farm profitability.

Prospect of future housing and risk of psychological distress at 1 year after an earthquake disaster.

PubMed

Nakaya, Naoki; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Tsuchiya, Naho; Narita, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tomita, Hiroaki

2016-04-01

Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, many of the affected have been forced to live in temporary housing or at a relative's house. Special attention needs to be paid to the negative health impacts resulting from such changes in living conditions. This study examined the association between future housing prospects and the risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake. In 2012, a questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional study of people aged 20 years or older living in Shichigahama Town, Miyagi, northeastern Japan, an area that had been severely inundated by the tsunami. Future housing prospects post-earthquake were classified into four categories: already settled in permanent housing, moving to new housing, under consideration, or unable to make any plans. Psychological distress was evaluated using the Kessler 6 scale, defined as ≥5 points out of 24. We performed multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounding factors. Of the 3614 individuals studied, subjects whose future housing was under consideration (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-2.7, P < 0.01) and those who were unable to make any future housing plans (OR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.4-2.5, P < 0.01) exhibited a significantly higher risk of psychological distress compared with subjects who had already settled in permanent housing. In this study, subjects whose future housing prospects were under consideration and those who were unable to make any future housing plans were at a higher risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake disaster. © 2015 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2015 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Campbell, Lindsay P; Moo-Llanes, David A; Travi, Bruno; González, Camila; Ferro, María Cristina; Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim; Brandão-Filho, Sinval P; Cupolillo, Elisa; Ramsey, Janine; Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki; Pech-May, Angélica; Shaw, Jeffrey J

2017-09-01

This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea.

PubMed

Munday, Philip L; Warner, Robert R; Monro, Keyne; Pandolfi, John M; Marshall, Dustin J

2013-12-01

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Complete genome sequence of Lactobacillus heilongjiangensis DSM 28069(T): Insight into its probiotic potential.

PubMed

Zheng, Beiwen; Jiang, Xiawei; Cheng, Hong; Xu, Zemin; Li, Ang; Hu, Xinjun; Xiao, Yonghong

2015-12-20

Lactobacillus heilongjiangensis DSM 28069(T) is a potential probiotic isolated from traditional Chinese pickle. Here we report the complete genome sequence of this strain. The complete genome is 2,790,548bp with the GC content of 37.5% and devoid of plasmids. Sets of genes involved in the biosynthesis of riboflavin and folate were identified in the genome, which revealed its potential application in biotechnological industry. The genome sequence of L. heilongjiangensis DSM 28069(T) now provides the fundamental information for future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomarkers of sepsis and their potential value in diagnosis, prognosis and treatment

PubMed Central

Sandquist, Mary; Wong, Hector R

2015-01-01

Biomarkers have great potential to improve the diagnosis and treatment of sepsis. The available literature supports the potential utility of sTREM-1, IL-27, suPAR, neutrophil CD64, presepsin, cfDNA and miRNAs as novel diagnostic, prognostic and treatment response biomarkers. The future of sepsis biomarkers lies in extensive validation studies of such novel biomarkers across heterogeneous populations and exploration of their power in combination. Furthermore, the use of a companion diagnostics model may augment the ability of investigators to identify novel sepsis biomarkers and develop specific therapeutic strategies based on biomarker information. PMID:25142036

N+3 Small Commercial Efficient and Quiet Transportation for Year 2030-2035

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DAngelo, Martin M.; Gallman, John; Johnson, Vicki; Garcia, Elena; Tai, Jimmy; Young, Russell

2010-01-01

This study develops a future scenario that enables convenient point-to-point commercial air travel via a large network of community airports and a new class of small airliners. A network demand and capacity study identifies current and future air travel demands and the capacity of this new network to satisfy these demands. A current technology small commercial airliner is defined to meet the needs of the new network, as a baseline for evaluating the improvement brought about by advanced technologies. Impact of this new mode of travel on the infrastructure and surrounding communities of the small airports in this new N+3 network are also evaluated. Year 2030-2035 small commercial airliner technologies are identified and a trade study conducted to evaluate and select those with the greatest potential for enhancing future air travel and the study metrics. The selected advanced air vehicle concept is assessed against the baseline aircraft, and an advanced, but conventional aircraft, and the study metrics. The key technologies of the selected advanced air vehicle are identified, their impact quantified, and risk assessments and roadmaps defined.

Teaching to Potential. Proceedings of the Regional Conference on University Teaching (2nd, Las Cruces, New Mexico, January 9-10, 1986).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces.

Proceedings of a regional conference on teaching to potential are presented. The 48 papers address three areas of concern: training or educating--future requirements, cultural diversity in higher education, and relating disciplinary research to university teaching. Papers and authors include: "Training or Education: Future Requirements for the…

Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

Treesearch

George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

2015-01-01

The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

The Influence of Temporal Orientation and Affective Frame on use of Ethical Decision-Making Strategies

PubMed Central

Martin, Laura E.; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Thiel, Chase E.; Antes, Alison L.; Mumford, Michael D.; Connelly, Shane; Devenport, Lynn D.

2011-01-01

This study examined the role of temporal orientation and affective frame in the execution of ethical decision-making strategies. In reflecting on a past experience or imagining a future experience, participants thought about experiences that they considered either positive or negative. The participants recorded their thinking about that experience by responding to several questions, and their responses were content-analyzed for the use of ethical decision-making strategies. The findings indicated that a future temporal orientation was associated with greater strategy use. Likewise, a positive affective frame was associated with greater strategy use. Future orientation may permit better strategy execution than a past orientation because it facilitates more objective, balanced contemplation of the reflected-upon situation, and minimizes potential self-threat associated with past behavior. A positive affective frame likely improves strategy execution because it facilitates active analysis of the experience. Future directions and implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:21572582

Forgiveness and Consideration of Future Consequences in Aggressive Driving

PubMed Central

Moore, Michael; Dahlen, Eric R.

2008-01-01

Most research on aggressive driving has focused on identifying aspects of driver personality which will exacerbate it (e.g., sensation seeking, impulsiveness, driving anger, etc.). The present study was designed to examine two theoretically relevant but previously unexplored personality factors predicted to reduce the risk of aggressive driving: trait forgiveness and consideration of future consequences. The utility of these variables in predicting aggressive driving and driving anger expression was evaluated among 316 college student volunteers. Hierarchical multiple regressions permitted an analysis of the incremental validity of these constructs beyond respondent gender, age, miles driven per week, and driving anger. Both forgiveness and consideration of future consequences contributed to the prediction of aggressive driving and driving anger expression, independent of driving anger. Research on aggressive driving may be enhanced by greater attention to adaptive, potentially risk-reducing traits. Moreover, forgiveness and consideration of future consequences may have implications for accident prevention. PMID:18760093

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

PubMed Central

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories. PMID:29088254

Updates to Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Potential Estimate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad

The deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was updated using the most recent temperature-at-depth maps available from the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory. The previous study dates back to 2011 and was developed using the original temperature-at-depth maps showcased in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy report. The methodology used to update the deep EGS resource potential is the same as in the previous study and is summarized in the paper. The updated deep EGS resource potential estimate was calculated for depths between 3 and 7 km and is binned inmore » 25 degrees C increments. The updated deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate is 4,349 GWe. A comparison of the estimates from the previous and updated studies shows a net increase of 117 GWe in the 3-7 km depth range, due mainly to increases in the underlying temperature-at-depth estimates from the updated maps.« less

Update to Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Potential Estimate: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad

2016-10-01

The deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was updated using the most recent temperature-at-depth maps available from the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory. The previous study dates back to 2011 and was developed using the original temperature-at-depth maps showcased in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy report. The methodology used to update the deep EGS resource potential is the same as in the previous study and is summarized in the paper. The updated deep EGS resource potential estimate was calculated for depths between 3 and 7 km and is binned inmore » 25 degrees C increments. The updated deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate is 4,349 GWe. A comparison of the estimates from the previous and updated studies shows a net increase of 117 GWe in the 3-7 km depth range, due mainly to increases in the underlying temperature-at-depth estimates from the updated maps.« less

Effects of climate change on niche shifts of Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Western Asia.

PubMed

Rounaghi, Iman; Hosseinian Yousefkhani, Seyyed Saeed

2018-01-01

Genus Pseudotrapelus has a wide distribution in North Africa and in the Middle East. In the present study, we modeled the habitat suitability of two Omani species of the genus (Pseudotrapelus dhofarensis and Pseudotrapelus jensvindumi) to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on their distribution. Mean diurnal range and precipitation of wettest quarter are the most highly contributed variables for P. jensvindumi and P. dhofarensis, respectively. The potential distribution for P. dhofarensis in the current time covers the southern coastal regions of Oman, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and Socotra Island, but the suitable regions were reduced in the future prediction and limited to Yemen, Socotra Island, and Oman. There have not been any records of the species outside of Oman. Analysis of habitat suitability for P. jensvindumi indicated that the species is restricted to the Al Hajar Mountain of Oman and the southeast coastal region of Iran, but there are no records of the species from Iran. Because mean diurnal range will not be influenced by climate change in future, the potential distribution of the species is not expected to be changed in 2050. All predicted models were performed with the highest AUC (more than 0.97) using the Maxent method. Investigation to find unknown populations of these two species in Iran, Yemen, and Socotra Island is essential for developing conservation programs in the future.

Crop resources. [18 papers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seigler, D.S.

Eighteen papers originally presented as a symposium on Crop Resources at the 17th annual meeting of the Society for Economic Botany in Urbana, Illinois, June 13 to 17, 1976 comprise this book. The papers are: Potential Wealth in New Crops: Research and Development, L. H. Princen; Plant Introductions--A Source of New Crops, George A. White; Nonfood Uses for Commercial Vegetable Oil Crops, E. H. Pryde; New Industrial Potentials for Carbohydrates, F. H. Otey; The Current Importance of Plants as a Source of Drugs, Norman R. Farnsworth; Potentials for Development of Wild Plants as Row Crops for Use by Man, Arnoldmore » Krochmal and Connie Krochmal; Recent Evidence in Support of the Tropical Origin of New World Crops, C. Earle Smith, Jr.; Requirements for a Green Revolution, G. F. Sprague; How Green Can a Revolution Be, Jack R. Harlan; Increasing Cereal Yields: Evolution under Domestication, J. M. J. de Wet; Hevea Rubber: Past and Future, Ernest P. Imle; Horseradish--Problems and Research in Illinois, A. M. Rhodes; Dioscorea--The Pill Crop, Norman Applezweig; Plant Derivatives for Insect Control, Robert L. Metcalf; Evolutionary Dynamics of Sorghum Domestication, J. M. J. de Wet and Y. Shecter; The Origin and Future of Wheat, E. R. Sears; Current Thoughts on Origins, Present Status, and Future of Soybeans, T. Hymowitz and C. A. Newell; and The Origin of Corn--Studies of the Last Hundred Years, Garrison Wilkes. (MCW)« less

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Hao; Ning, Shaowei; Hiroshi, Ishidaira

2018-06-01

Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM). In addition, future leaf area index (LAI) is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC) based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

Constraining the range of Yukawa gravity interaction from S2 star orbits III: improvement expectations for graviton mass bounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharov, A. F.; Jovanović, P.; Borka, D.; Borka Jovanović, V.

2018-04-01

Recently, the LIGO-Virgo collaboration discovered gravitational waves and in their first publication on the subject the authors also presented a graviton mass constraint as mg < 1.2 × 10‑22 eV [1] (see also more details in a complimentary paper [2]). In our previous papers we considered constraints on Yukawa gravity parameters [3] and on graviton mass from analysis of the trajectory of S2 star near the Galactic Center [4]. In the paper we analyze a potential to reduce upper bounds for graviton mass with future observational data on trajectories of bright stars near the Galactic Center. Since gravitational potentials are different for these two cases, expressions for relativistic advance for general relativity and Yukawa potential are different functions on eccentricity and semimajor axis, it gives an opportunity to improve current estimates of graviton mass with future observational facilities. In our considerations of an improvement potential for a graviton mass estimate we adopt a conservative strategy and assume that trajectories of bright stars and their apocenter advance will be described with general relativity expressions and it gives opportunities to improve graviton mass constraints. In contrast with our previous studies, where we present current constraints on parameters of Yukawa gravity [5] and graviton mass [6] from observations of S2 star, in the paper we express expectations to improve current constraints for graviton mass, assuming the GR predictions about apocenter shifts will be confirmed with future observations. We concluded that if future observations of bright star orbits during around fifty years will confirm GR predictions about apocenter shifts of bright star orbits it give an opportunity to constrain a graviton mass at a level around 5 × 10‑23 eV or slightly better than current estimates obtained with LIGO observations.

Urinary Sugars--A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake.

PubMed

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-07-15

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies.

Urinary Sugars—A Biomarker of Total Sugars Intake

PubMed Central

Tasevska, Natasha

2015-01-01

Measurement error in self-reported sugars intake may explain the lack of consistency in the epidemiologic evidence on the association between sugars and disease risk. This review describes the development and applications of a biomarker of sugars intake, informs its future use and recommends directions for future research. Recently, 24 h urinary sucrose and fructose were suggested as a predictive biomarker for total sugars intake, based on findings from three highly controlled feeding studies conducted in the United Kingdom. From this work, a calibration equation for the biomarker that provides an unbiased measure of sugars intake was generated that has since been used in two US-based studies with free-living individuals to assess measurement error in dietary self-reports and to develop regression calibration equations that could be used in future diet-disease analyses. Further applications of the biomarker include its use as a surrogate measure of intake in diet-disease association studies. Although this biomarker has great potential and exhibits favorable characteristics, available data come from a few controlled studies with limited sample sizes conducted in the UK. Larger feeding studies conducted in different populations are needed to further explore biomarker characteristics and stability of its biases, compare its performance, and generate a unique, or population-specific biomarker calibration equations to be applied in future studies. A validated sugars biomarker is critical for informed interpretation of sugars-disease association studies. PMID:26184307

Performing the Future. On the Use of Drama in Philosophy Courses for Science Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toonders, Winnie; Verhoeff, Roald P.; Zwart, Hub

2016-10-01

Drama is a relatively unexplored tool in academic science education. This paper addresses in what way the use of drama may allow science students to deepen their understanding of recent developments in the emerging and controversial field of neuro-enhancement, by means of a case study approach. First, we emphasise the congruency between drama and science, notably the dramatic dimension of experimental research. Subsequently, we draw on educational literature to elaborate the potential of using drama as a teaching modality, specifically focusing on the ethical and moral dimensions of future techno-scientific innovations. Our case study consisted of a drama experiment as a module in a philosophy course on human enhancement. Twenty-two students from various science disciplines performed multiple roles, as authors, actors, audience and reviewers. Qualitative data were collected on the educational process and student performance during the course, i.e. observations and video recordings of class discussions, group work and plays, interviews and questionnaires. Our drama experiment proved to be effective in enabling students to explore and relate to a future life world affected by enhancement technologies. It allowed them to deepen their awareness of social and ethical implications of neuro-technologies and of the different viewpoints people may have on this issue in academic, professional or everyday settings. Moreover, drama allowed them to develop a reflexive position of their own in the neuro-enhancement debate by enacting a moral dilemma in front of an audience. Our results confirm the potential of drama as a tool for exploring techno-scientific futures in science education.

The Future of Learning Technology: Some Tentative Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rushby, Nick

2013-01-01

This paper is a snapshot of an evolving vision of what the future may hold for learning technology. It offers three personal visions of the future and raises many questions that need to be explored if learning technology is to realise its full potential.

Ostracod (Ostracoda, Crustacea) genomics - Promises and challenges.

PubMed

Schön, Isa; Martens, Koen

2016-10-01

Ostracods are well-suited model organisms for evolutionary research. Classic genetic techniques have mostly been used for phylogenetic studies on Ostracoda and were somewhat affected by the lack of large numbers of suitable markers. Genomic methods with their huge potential have so far rarely been applied to this group of crustaceans. We provide relevant examples of genomic studies on other organisms to propose future avenues of genomic ostracod research. At the same time, we suggest solutions to the potential problems in ostracods that the application of genomic techniques might present. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy self-sufficiency in Northampton, Massachusetts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The study is not an engineering analysis but begins the process of exploring the potential for conservation and local renewable-resource development in a specific community, Northampton, Massachusetts, with the social, institutional, and environmental factors in that community taken into account. Section I is an extensive executive summary of the full study, and Section II is a detailed examination of the potential for increased local energy self-sufficiency in Northampton, including current and future demand estimates, the possible role of conservation and renewable resources, and a discussion of the economic and social implications of alternative energy systems. (MOW)

Future orientation and smoking cessation: secondary analysis of data from a smoking cessation trial.

PubMed

Beenstock, Jane; Lindson-Hawley, Nicola; Aveyard, Paul; Adams, Jean

2014-10-01

To examine the association between future orientation (how individuals consider and value outcomes in the future) and smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months post quit-date in individuals enrolled in a smoking cessation study. Cohort analysis of randomized controlled trial data. UK primary care. Adults aged ≥18 years smoking ≥15 cigarettes daily, prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks. Future orientation was measured prior to quitting and at 4 weeks post-quitting using the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale. Smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months was confirmed biochemically. Those lost to follow-up were assumed to not be abstinent. Potential confounders adjusted for were: age, gender, educational attainment, nicotine dependence and longest previous period quit. A total of 697 participants provided data at baseline; 422 provided information on future orientation at 4 weeks. There was no evidence of an association between future orientation at baseline and abstinence at 4 weeks [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.80-1.38] or 6 months (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.60-1.20). There was no change in future orientation from baseline to 4 weeks and no evidence that the change differed between those who were and were not quit at 4 weeks (adjusted regression coefficient = -0.04, 95% CI = -0.16 to 0.08). In smokers who are prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks, the extent of future orientation is unlikely to be a strong predictor of quitting over 4 weeks or 6 months and any increase in future orientation following quitting is likely to be small. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Multiscale Modeling, Simulation and Visualization and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

2002-01-01

This document contains the proceedings of the Training Workshop on Multiscale Modeling, Simulation and Visualization and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems held at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, March 5 - 6, 2002. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University's Center for Advanced Engineering Environments and NASA. Workshop attendees were from NASA, other government agencies, industry, and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to give overviews of the diverse activities in hierarchical approach to material modeling from continuum to atomistics; applications of multiscale modeling to advanced and improved material synthesis; defects, dislocations, and material deformation; fracture and friction; thin-film growth; characterization at nano and micro scales; and, verification and validation of numerical simulations, and to identify their potential for future aerospace systems.

Analysis of future generation solar cells and materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, Masafumi; Zhu, Lin; Akiyama, Hidefumi; Kanemitsu, Yoshihiko; Tampo, Hitoshi; Shibata, Hajime; Lee, Kan-Hua; Araki, Kenji; Kojima, Nobuaki

2018-04-01

The efficiency potentials of future generation solar cells such as wide bandgap chalcopyrite, Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS), Cu2ZnSn(S,Se)4 (CZTSSe), multi quantum well (MQW) and quantum dot (QD) solar cells are discussed on the basis of external radiative efficiency (ERE), open-circuit voltage loss, fill factor loss, and nonradiative recombination losses. CZTS and CZTSSe solar cells have efficiency potentials of more than 20% owing to the improvement in ERE from about 0.001 to 1%. MQW and QD cells have efficiency potentials of 24.8%, and 25.8% owing to the improvement in ERE from around 0.01 to 0.1%, and 1%, respectively. In this paper, the effects of nonradiative recombination on the properties of future generation solar cells are discussed.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Attitudes toward New England fishers: a study of tourists to the New Hampshire seacoast

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Hafner; Robert A. Robertson; Erika Carlsen

2003-01-01

A study of tourists to the New Hampshire Seacoast was conducted during the Summer 1998 and 1999 tourist seasons. A mail survey collected data on how seacoast visitors viewed potential management initiatives for coastal resources, the types of activities visitors have participated in and activities they are interested in participating in the future and visitors'...

The Impact of an Intensive Experience on Prospective Teachers' Perception of the Uses of Digital, Interactive Text among K-12 Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stonier, Francis W.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to measure pre-service teacher perception, awareness, and potential use of digital literacies, media, and digital interactive text in their future classrooms. The study grew from the theoretical rationales of new literacies, technological pedagogical content knowledge, and constructivism. New literacies are…

Securing the Future: Retention Models in Community Colleges--Study of Community College Structures for Student Success (SCCSSS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

College Board Advocacy & Policy Center, 2012

2012-01-01

The Study of Community College Structures for Student Success (SCCSSS) was launched in 2010 with three goals at its center: (1) To explore a set of promising institutional practices and organizational structures identified through theory and research as having the potential to support community college student success; (2) To present a synthesized…

Opportunities and Challenges for Building Alumni Networks in Sweden: A Case Study of Stockholm University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ebert, Karin; Axelsson, Leona; Harbor, Jon

2015-01-01

Because of the potential value of alumni involvement for student success, for connections to society and as a base for future philanthropy, there is growing interest in developing university alumni relations programmes in countries that do not have a long tradition in this area. This case study of Stockholm University describes the goals,…

The national fire and fire surrogate study: early results and future challenges

Treesearch

Thomas A. Waldrop; James McIver

2006-01-01

Fire-adapted ecosystems today have dense plant cover and heavy fuel loads as a result of fire exclusion and other changes in land use practices. Mechanical fuel treatments and prescribed fire are powerful tools for reducing wildfire potential, but the ecological consequences of their use is unknown. The National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study examines the effects of...