Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. II - Electrical coupling between the upper and lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.; Hays, P. B.

1979-01-01

The paper presents a model of global atmospheric electricity used to examine the effect of upper atmospheric generators on the global electrical circuit. The model represents thunderstorms as dipole current generators randomly distributed in areas of known thunderstorm frequency; the electrical conductivity in the model increases with altitude, and electrical effects are coupled with a passive magnetosphere along geomagnetic field lines. The large horizontal-scale potential differences at ionospheric heights map downward into the lower atmosphere where the perturbations in the ground electric field are superimposed on the diurnal variation. Finally, changes in the upper atmospheric conductivity due to solar flares, polar cap absorptions, and Forbush decreases are shown to alter the downward mapping of the high-latitude potential pattern and the global distribution of fields and currents.

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Pielke, Roger A; Marland, Gregg; Betts, Richard A; Chase, Thomas N; Eastman, Joseph L; Niles, John O; Niyogi, Dev Dutta S; Running, Steven W

2002-08-15

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.

Global warming potential of pavements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad

2009-09-01

Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers.

PubMed

Bravo, Iván; Díaz-de-Mera, Yolanda; Aranda, Alfonso; Moreno, Elena; Nutt, David R; Marston, George

2011-10-14

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

Global comparative healthcare effectiveness research: evaluating sustainable programmes in low & middle resource settings.

PubMed

Balkrishnan, Rajesh; Chang, Jongwha; Patel, Isha; Yang, Fang; Merajver, Sofia D

2013-03-01

The need to focus healthcare expenditures on innovative and sustainable health systems that efficiently use existing effective therapies are the major drivers stimulating Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) across the globe. Lack of adequate access and high cost of essential medicines and technologies in many countries increases morbidity and mortality and cost of care that forces people and families into poverty due to disability and out-of-pocket expenses. This review illustrates the potential of value-added global health care comparative effectiveness research in shaping health systems and health care delivery paradigms in the "global south". Enabling the development of effective CER systems globally paves the way for tangible local and regional definitions of equity in health care because CER fosters the sharing of critical assets, resources, skills, and capabilities and the development of collaborative of multi-sectorial frameworks to improve health outcomes and metrics globally.

Improved global simulation of groundwater-ecosystem interactions via tight coupling of a dynamic global ecosystem model and a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; van Kampenhout, Leo; Wassen, Martin

2017-04-01

In up to 30% of the global land surface ecosystems are potentially influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux by capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has a strong effect on evapotranspiration, vegetation dynamics, and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure, and biogeochemical processes and are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics. This coupled model allows us to explicitly account for groundwater effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes at global scale. Results of global simulations indicate that groundwater strongly influences fluxes of water, carbon and nitrogen, in many regions, adding up to a considerable effect at the global scale.

The potential of land management to decrease global warming from climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Hausfather, Z.; Jones, A. D.; Silver, W. L.

2016-12-01

Recent evidence suggests that negative emissions (i.e. sequestration) is critical to slow climate change (IPCC, 2013; Gasser et al, 2015). Agricultural (crop and grazing) lands have the potential to act as a significant carbon sink. These ecosystems cover a significant proportion of the global land surface, and are largely degraded with regard to soil carbon due to previous management practices (Bai et al, 2008). However, few studies have examined the required scale of land management interventions that would be required to make a significant contribution to a portfolio of efforts aimed at limiting anthropogenic influences on global mean temperature. To address this, we modelled the quantitative effect of a range of soil carbon sequestration rates on global temperature to 2100. Results showed that by assuming a baseline emissions scenario outlined in RCP 2.6, the sequestration of an additional 0.7 Pg C per year through improved agricultural land management practices would produce a reduction of 0.1 degrees C from predicted global temperatures by the year 2100. We also compiled previous estimates of global carbon sequestration potential of agricultural soils to compare with our theoretical prediction to determine whether carbon sequestration through existing land management practices has potential to significantly reduce global temperatures. Assuming long-term soil carbon uptake, the combined potential of agricultural land management-based mitigation approaches exceeded 0.25 degrees C warming reduction by the year 2100. However, results were highly sensitive to potential carbon saturation, defined as the maximum threshold for carbon storage in soil. Our results suggest that current land management technologies and available land area exist and could make a measureable impact on warming reduction. Results also highlighted potential carbon saturation as a key gap in knowledge.

Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, Richard A.; Wuebbles, D.; Atkinson, R.; Connell, Peter S.; Dorn, H. P.; Derudder, A.; Derwent, Richard G.; Fehsenfeld, F. C.; Fisher, D.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

1990-01-01

Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming).

Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2007-01-01

The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Is there the potential to adapt soybean (Glycine max Merr.) to future [CO2]? An analysis of the yield response of 18 genotypes in free air CO2 enrichment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rising atmospheric [CO2] is a uniform and global change that increases C3 photosynthesis by suppressing the oxygenation reaction of Rubisco and accelerating carboxylation. This has the potential to provide some offset to the negative effects of global change on crop yields. However, under field cond...

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

PubMed

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Cross-Cultural Effects of Cannabis Use Disorder: Evidence to Support a Cultural Neuroscience Approach

PubMed Central

Prashad, Shikha; Milligan, Amber L.; Cousijn, Janna; Filbey, Francesca M.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review Cannabis use disorders (CUDs) are prevalent worldwide. Current epidemiological studies underscore differences in behaviors that contribute to cannabis use across cultures that can be leveraged towards prevention and treatment of CUDs. This review proposes a framework for understanding the effects of cross-cultural differences on psychological, neural, and genomic processes underlying CUDs that has the potential to inform global policies and impact global public health. Recent findings We found that cultural factors may influence (1) the willingness to acknowledge CUD-related symptoms among populations of different countries, and (2) neural responses related to the sense of self, perception, emotion, and attention. These findings leverage the potential effects of culture on neural mechanisms underlying CUDs. Summary As the number of individuals seeking treatment for CUDs increases globally, it is imperative to incorporate cultural considerations to better understand and serve differing populations and develop more targeted treatment strategies and interventions. PMID:29062679

Cross-Cultural Effects of Cannabis Use Disorder: Evidence to Support a Cultural Neuroscience Approach.

PubMed

Prashad, Shikha; Milligan, Amber L; Cousijn, Janna; Filbey, Francesca M

2017-06-01

Cannabis use disorders (CUDs) are prevalent worldwide. Current epidemiological studies underscore differences in behaviors that contribute to cannabis use across cultures that can be leveraged towards prevention and treatment of CUDs. This review proposes a framework for understanding the effects of cross-cultural differences on psychological, neural, and genomic processes underlying CUDs that has the potential to inform global policies and impact global public health. We found that cultural factors may influence (1) the willingness to acknowledge CUD-related symptoms among populations of different countries, and (2) neural responses related to the sense of self, perception, emotion, and attention. These findings leverage the potential effects of culture on neural mechanisms underlying CUDs. As the number of individuals seeking treatment for CUDs increases globally, it is imperative to incorporate cultural considerations to better understand and serve differing populations and develop more targeted treatment strategies and interventions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, S.C.; Hamilton, L.D.

This paper describes health and environmental impacts of coal-fired electric power plants. Effects on man, agriculture, and natural ecosystems are considered. These effects may result from direct impacts or exposures via air, water, and food chains. The paper is organized by geographical extent of effect. Occupational health impacts and local environmental effects such as noise and solid waste leachate are treated first. Then, regional effects of air pollution, including acid rain, are analyzed. Finally, potential global impacts are examined. Occupational health concerns considered include exposure to noise, dust, asbestos, mercury, and combustion products, and resulting injury and disease. Local effectsmore » considered include noise; air and water emissions of coal storage piles, solid waste operations, and cooling systems. Air pollution, once an acute local problem, is now a regional concern. Acute and chronic direct health effects are considered. Special attention is given to potential effects of radionuclides in coal and of acid rain. Finally, potential global impacts associated with carbon dioxide emissions are considered. 88 references, 9 tables.« less

Phasic alertness enhances processing of face and non-face stimuli in congenital prosopagnosia.

PubMed

Tanzer, Michal; Weinbach, Noam; Mardo, Elite; Henik, Avishai; Avidan, Galia

2016-08-01

Congenital prosopagnosia (CP) is a severe face processing impairment that occurs in the absence of any obvious brain damage and has often been associated with a more general deficit in deriving holistic relations between facial features or even between non-face shape dimensions. Here we further characterized this deficit and examined a potential way to ameliorate it. To this end we manipulated phasic alertness using alerting cues previously shown to modulate attention and enhance global processing of visual stimuli in normal observers. Specifically, we first examined whether individuals with CP, similarly to controls, would show greater global processing when exposed to an alerting cue in the context of a non-facial task (Navon global/local task). We then explored the effect of an alerting cue on face processing (upright/inverted face discrimination). Confirming previous findings, in the absence of alerting cues, controls showed a typical global bias in the Navon task and an inversion effect indexing holistic processing in the upright/inverted task, while CP failed to show these effects. Critically, when alerting cues preceded the experimental trials, both groups showed enhanced global interference and a larger inversion effect. These results suggest that phasic alertness may modulate visual processing and consequently, affect global/holistic perception. Hence, these findings further reinforce the notion that global/holistic processing may serve as a possible mechanism underlying the face processing deficit in CP. Moreover, they imply a possible route for enhancing face processing in individuals with CP and thus shed new light on potential amelioration of this disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global...

Forest landscape mosaics: Disturbance, restoration, and management at times of global change

Treesearch

Kalev Jogiste; Bengt Gunnar Jonsson; Timo Kuuluvainen; Sylvie Gauthier; W. Keith Moser

2015-01-01

Potential effects of hypothesized anthropogenic climate change are raising concerns about the sustainability of development in terms of both people and the rest of the environment. Land use change at the global scale presents many challenges for the research community. Past land use has a definite effect on future ecosystems, but it is challenging to predict future...

The Global Signal in fMRI: Nuisance or Information?

PubMed Central

Nalci, Alican; Falahpour, Maryam

2017-01-01

The global signal is widely used as a regressor or normalization factor for removing the effects of global variations in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies. However, there is considerable controversy over its use because of the potential bias that can be introduced when it is applied to the analysis of both task-related and resting-state fMRI studies. In this paper we take a closer look at the global signal, examining in detail the various sources that can contribute to the signal. For the most part, the global signal has been treated as a nuisance term, but there is growing evidence that it may also contain valuable information. We also examine the various ways that the global signal has been used in the analysis of fMRI data, including global signal regression, global signal subtraction, and global signal normalization. Furthermore, we describe new ways for understanding the effects of global signal regression and its relation to the other approaches. PMID:28213118

Variability and trends in global drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2015-01-01

Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

Global evaluation of biofuel potential from microalgae

PubMed Central

Moody, Jeffrey W.; McGinty, Christopher M.; Quinn, Jason C.

2014-01-01

In the current literature, the life cycle, technoeconomic, and resource assessments of microalgae-based biofuel production systems have relied on growth models extrapolated from laboratory-scale data, leading to a large uncertainty in results. This type of simplistic growth modeling overestimates productivity potential and fails to incorporate biological effects, geographical location, or cultivation architecture. This study uses a large-scale, validated, outdoor photobioreactor microalgae growth model based on 21 reactor- and species-specific inputs to model the growth of Nannochloropsis. This model accurately accounts for biological effects such as nutrient uptake, respiration, and temperature and uses hourly historical meteorological data to determine the current global productivity potential. Global maps of the current near-term microalgae lipid and biomass productivity were generated based on the results of annual simulations at 4,388 global locations. Maximum annual average lipid yields between 24 and 27 m3·ha−1·y−1, corresponding to biomass yields of 13 to 15 g·m−2·d−1, are possible in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Saudi Arabia. The microalgae lipid productivity results of this study were integrated with geography-specific fuel consumption and land availability data to perform a scalability assessment. Results highlight the promising potential of microalgae-based biofuels compared with traditional terrestrial feedstocks. When water, nutrients, and CO2 are not limiting, many regions can potentially meet significant fractions of their transportation fuel requirements through microalgae production, without land resource restriction. Discussion focuses on sensitivity of monthly variability in lipid production compared with annual average yields, effects of temperature on productivity, and a comparison of results with previous published modeling assumptions. PMID:24912176

Global Energy Issues and Alternate Fueling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation describes world energy issues and alternate fueling effects on aircraft design. The contents include: 1) US Uses about 100 Quad/year (1 Q = 10(exp 15) Btu) World Energy Use: about 433 Q/yr; 2) US Renewable Energy about 6%; 3) Nuclear Could Grow: Has Legacy Problems; 4) Energy Sources Primarily NonRenewable Hydrocarbon; 5) Notes; 6) Alternate Fuels Effect Aircraft Design; 7) Conventional-Biomass Issue - Food or Fuel; 8) Alternate fuels must be environmentally benign; 9) World Carbon (CO2) Emissions Problem; 10) Jim Hansen s Global Warming Warnings; 11) Gas Hydrates (Clathrates), Solar & Biomass Locations; 12) Global Energy Sector Response; 13) Alternative Renewables; 14) Stratospheric Sulfur Injection Global Cooling Switch; 15) Potential Global Energy Sector Response; and 16) New Sealing and Fluid Flow Challenges.

Effects of global and local contexts on chord processing: An ERP study.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingjing; Zhou, Xuefeng; Chang, Ruohan; Yang, Yufang

2018-01-31

In real life, the processing of an incoming event is continuously influenced by prior information at multiple timescales. The present study investigated how harmonic contexts at both local and global levels influence the processing of an incoming chord in an event-related potentials experiment. Chord sequences containing two phrases were presented to musically trained listeners, with the last critical chord either harmonically related or less related to its preceding context at local and/or global levels. ERPs data showed an ERAN-like effect for local context in early time window and a N5-like component for later interaction between the local context and global context. These results suggest that both the local and global contexts influence the processing of an incoming music event, and the local effect happens earlier than the global. Moreover, the interaction between the local context and global context in N5 may suggest that music syntactic integration at local level takes place prior to the integration at global level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Brexit on the forest products industry of the United Kingdom and the rest of the world

Treesearch

Craig M. T. Johnston; Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model was applied to forecast the effect of Brexit on the global forest products industry to2003 under two scenarios; an optimistic and pessimistic future storyline regarding the potential economic effect of Brexit. The forecasts integrated a range of gross domestic product growth rates using an average of the optimistic and...

Local adaptation and the potential effects of a contaminant on predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming: a space-for-time substitution approach.

PubMed

Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh Van, Khuong; Debecker, Sara; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

2014-03-01

The ability to deal with temperature-induced changes in interactions with contaminants and predators under global warming is one of the outstanding, applied evolutionary questions. For this, it is crucial to understand how contaminants will affect activity levels, predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming and to what extent gradual thermal evolution may mitigate these effects. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we assessed the potential for gradual thermal evolution shaping activity (mobility and foraging), predator avoidance and antipredator responses when Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae were exposed to zinc in a common-garden warming experiment at the mean summer water temperatures of shallow water bodies at southern and northern latitudes (24 and 20°C, respectively). Zinc reduced mobility and foraging, predator avoidance and escape swimming speed. Importantly, high-latitude populations showed stronger zinc-induced reductions in escape swimming speed at both temperatures, and in activity levels at the high temperature. The latter indicates that local thermal adaptation may strongly change the ecological impact of contaminants under global warming. Our study underscores the critical importance of considering local adaptation along natural gradients when integrating biotic interactions in ecological risk assessment, and the potential of gradual thermal evolution mitigating the effects of warming on the vulnerability to contaminants.

Virtual local target method for avoiding local minimum in potential field based robot navigation.

PubMed

Zou, Xi-Yong; Zhu, Jing

2003-01-01

A novel robot navigation algorithm with global path generation capability is presented. Local minimum is a most intractable but is an encountered frequently problem in potential field based robot navigation. Through appointing appropriately some virtual local targets on the journey, it can be solved effectively. The key concept employed in this algorithm are the rules that govern when and how to appoint these virtual local targets. When the robot finds itself in danger of local minimum, a virtual local target is appointed to replace the global goal temporarily according to the rules. After the virtual target is reached, the robot continues on its journey by heading towards the global goal. The algorithm prevents the robot from running into local minima anymore. Simulation results showed that it is very effective in complex obstacle environments.

Potential effects of climate change on Oregon crops

EPA Science Inventory

This talk will discuss: 1) potential changes in the Pacific Northwest climate with global climate change, 2) how climate change can affect crops, 3) the diversity of Oregon agriculture, 4) examples of potential response of Oregon crops – especially dryland winter wheat, and 5) br...

The International Database of Efficient Appliances (IDEA): A New Resource for Global Efficiency Policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerke, Brian F; McNeil, Michael A; Tu, Thomas

A major barrier to effective appliance efficiency program design and evaluation is a lack of data for determination of market baselines and cost-effective energy savings potential. The data gap is particularly acute in developing countries, which may have the greatest savings potential per unit GDP. To address this need, we are developing the International Database of Efficient Appliances (IDEA), which automatically compiles data from a wide variety of online sources to create a unified repository of information on efficiency, price, and features for a wide range of energy-consuming products across global markets. This paper summarizes the database framework and demonstratesmore » the power of IDEA as a resource for appliance efficiency research and policy development. Using IDEA data for refrigerators in China and India, we develop robust cost-effectiveness indicators that allow rapid determination of savings potential within each market, as well as comparison of that potential across markets and appliance types. We discuss implications for future energy efficiency policy development.« less

The impact of globalization on public health: implications for the UK Faculty of Public Health Medicine.

PubMed

Lee, K

2000-09-01

There has been substantial discussion of globalization in the scholarly and popular press yet limited attention so far among public health professionals. This is so despite the many potential impacts of globalization on public health. Defining public health broadly, as focused on the collective health of populations requiring a range of intersectoral activities, globalization can be seen to have particular relevance. Globalization, in turn, can be defined as a process that is changing the nature of human interaction across a wide range of spheres and along at least three dimensions. Understanding public health and globalization in these ways suggests the urgent need for research to better understand the linkages between the two, and effective policy responses by a range of public health institutions, including the UK Faculty of Public Health Medicine. The paper is based on a review of secondary literature on globalization that led to the development of a conceptual framework for understanding potential impacts on the determinants of health and public health. The paper then discusses major areas of public health in relation to these potential impacts. It concludes with recommendations on how the UK Faculty of Public Health Medicine might contribute to addressing these impacts through its various activities. Although there is growing attention to the importance of globalization to public health, there has been limited research and policy development in the United Kingdom. The UK Faculty of Public Health Medicine needs to play an active role in bringing relevant issues to the attention of policy makers, and encourage its members to take up research, teaching and policy initiatives. The potential impacts of globalization support a broader understanding and practice of public health that embraces a wide range of health determinants.

Potential Global Partners for Smaller-Scale Contingencies

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-08-01

Current estimates4 suggest there are possibly as many as 32,000 NGOs formed in developed nations (northern hemisphere or global NGOs) that work in...organizations with an international perspective that originate in developed nations. It is important to keep in mind that there are both global and local NGOs...Coordination within the ECOSOC System The UNS includes two key committees that develop policy and effect interagency coordination and cooperation

Climatic change and wildland recreation: Examining the changing patterns of wilderness recreation in response to the effects of global climate change and the El Nino phenomenon

Treesearch

Vinod Sasidharan

2000-01-01

Impacts of global climate change on the biophysical components of wilderness areas have the potential to alter their recreational utility of wilderness areas. Concomitantly, the frequency and patterns of both land-based and water-based wilderness recreation activities will be affected. Despite the difficulty of responding to the unclear dimensions of global climate...

Overview of global climate change and carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Kurt Johnsen

2004-01-01

The potential influence of global climate change on southern forests is uncertain. Outputs of climate change models differ considerably in their projections for precipitation and other variables that affect forests. Forest responses, particularly effects on competition among species, are difficult to assess. Even the responses of relatively simple ecosystems, such as...

Global Imagery in Online Advertisements

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hynes, Geraldine E.; Janson, Marius

2007-01-01

A well-designed online advertisement is essential for effective communication with potential customers and contributes to successful e-commerce. However, creating online sales messages that appeal to a broad range of cultures can pose unique challenges. Internet ads must offer both a globally appealing and a culture-specific message that in turn…

Motivational intensity modulates attentional scope: evidence from behavioral and ERP studies.

PubMed

Liu, Lei; Zhang, Guangnan; Zhou, Renlai; Wang, Zuowei

2014-10-01

Previous studies have found that affective states with high motivational intensity narrow attentional scope, whereas affective states with low motivational intensity broaden attentional scope. This conclusion, however, is based on fragmented evidence based on several separate studies. The present study tests this conclusion within a single study using both behavioral (Experiment 1) and neurophysiological (Experiment 2) measures. Experiment 1 showed that individuals had the global precedence effect in the neutral affective state. However, the global precedence effect was reduced for affective states with high motivational intensity, whereas the global precedence effect was not significantly enhanced for those with low motivational intensity. Experiment 2 replicated these results with event-related potential (ERP) recording. ERP results showed that affective states with high motivational intensity induced smaller N2 and greater late positive potential (LPP) amplitudes than low motivational intensity and neutral affective states. However, no differences were found between the low motivational intensity and neutral affective states. Furthermore, smaller LPP predicted the tendency a global attentional focus in the frontal and central areas and larger LPP predicted a narrowed focus in the frontal area. The findings suggested that high motivational intensity of affective states can affect attentional scope.

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-06-01

The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks.

Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases until 2050: technical mitigation potentials and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purohit, Pallav; Hoglund-Isaksson, Lena

2016-04-01

The anthropogenic fluorinated (F-gases) greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly in recent years and are estimated to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase out of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) under the Montreal Protocol. F-gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are potent greenhouse gases, with a global warming effect up to 22,800 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2). This study presents estimates of current and future global emissions of F-gases, their technical mitigation potential and associated costs for the period 2005 to 2050. The analysis uses the GAINS model framework to estimate emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for all major sources of anthropogenic F-gases for 162 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. For each region, 18 emission source sectors with mitigation potentials and costs were identified. Global F-gas emissions are estimated at 0.7 Gt CO2eq in 2005 with an expected increase to about 3.6 Gt CO2eq in 2050. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions by over 95 percent primarily through replacement with existing low GWP substances. The initial results indicate that at least half of the mitigation potential is attainable at a cost of less than 20€ per t CO2eq, while almost 90 percent reduction is attainable at less than 100€ per t CO2eq. Currently, several policy proposals have been presented to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially curb global HFC use. We analyze the technical potentials and costs associated with the HFC mitigation required under the different proposed Montreal Protocol amendments.

Global Economic Effects of USA Biofuel Policy and the Potential Contribution from Advanced Biofuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gbadebo Oladosu; Keith Kline; Paul Leiby

2012-01-01

This study evaluates the global economic effects of the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS2), and the potential contribution from advanced biofuels. Our simulation results imply that these mandates lead to an increase of 0.21 percent in the global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, including an increase of 0.8 percent in the USA and 0.02 percent in the rest of the world (ROW); relative to our baseline, no-RFS scenario. The incremental contributions to GDP from advanced biofuels in 2022 are estimated at 0.41 percent and 0.04 percent in the USA and ROW, respectively. Although production costs of advanced biofuels aremore » higher than for conventional biofuels in our model, their economic benefits result from reductions in oil use, and their smaller impacts on food markets compared with conventional biofuels. Thus, the USA advanced biofuels targets are expected to have positive economic benefits.« less

The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

2014-11-01

Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

Global temperature change potential of nitrogen use in agriculture: A 50-year assessment

PubMed Central

Fagodiya, R. K.; Pathak, H.; Kumar, A.; Bhatia, A.; Jain, N.

2017-01-01

Nitrogen (N) use in agriculture substantially alters global N cycle with the short- and long-term effects on global warming and climate change. It increases emission of nitrous oxide, which contributes 6.2%, while carbon dioxide and methane contribute 76% and 16%, respectively of the global warming. However, N causes cooling due to emission of NOx, which alters concentrations of tropospheric ozone and methane. NOx and NH3 also form aerosols with considerable cooling effects. We studied global temperature change potential (GTP) of N use in agriculture. The GTP due to N2O was 396.67 and 1168.32 Tg CO2e on a 20-year (GTP20) and 439.94 and 1295.78 Tg CO2e on 100-year scale (GTP100) during years 1961 and 2010, respectively. Cooling effects due to N use were 92.14 and 271.39 Tg CO2e (GTP20) and 15.21 and 44.80 Tg CO2e (GTP100) during 1961 and 2010, respectively. Net GTP20 was 369.44 and 1088.15 Tg CO2e and net GTP100 was 429.17 and 1264.06 Tg CO2e during 1961 and 2010, respectively. Thus net GTP20 is lower by 6.9% and GTP100 by 2.4% compared to the GTP considering N2O emission alone. The study shows that both warming and cooling effects should be considered to estimate the GTP of N use. PMID:28322322

The relative importance of sources of greenhouse-gas emissions: comparison of global through subnational perspectives.

PubMed

Cushman, Robert M; Jones, Sonja B

2002-03-01

Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are widely expected to cause global warming and other climatic changes. It is important to establish priorities for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, so that resources can be allocated efficiently and effectively. This is a global problem, and it is possible, on a global scale, to identify those activities whose emissions have the greatest potential for enhancing the greenhouse effect. However, perspectives from smaller scales must be appreciated, because it is on scales down to the local level that response measures will be implemented. This paper analyzes the relative importance of emissions from the many individual sources, on scales ranging from global to national to subnational. Individual country perspectives and proposed policy measures and those of subnational political entities exhibit some commonalities but differ among themselves and from a global-scale perspective in detail.

Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?

PubMed

El-Shehawy, Rehab; Gorokhova, Elena; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca; del Campo, Francisca F

2012-04-01

Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, Amos P. K.; Martin, Maria Val; Heald, Colette L.

2014-09-01

Future food production is highly vulnerable to both climate change and air pollution with implications for global food security. Climate change adaptation and ozone regulation have been identified as important strategies to safeguard food production, but little is known about how climate and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture, nor the relative effectiveness of these two strategies for different crops and regions. Here we present an integrated analysis of the individual and combined effects of 2000-2050 climate change and ozone trends on the production of four major crops (wheat, rice, maize and soybean) worldwide based on historical observations and model projections, specifically accounting for ozone-temperature co-variation. The projections exclude the effect of rising CO2, which has complex and potentially offsetting impacts on global food supply. We show that warming reduces global crop production by >10% by 2050 with a potential to substantially worsen global malnutrition in all scenarios considered. Ozone trends either exacerbate or offset a substantial fraction of climate impacts depending on the scenario, suggesting the importance of air quality management in agricultural planning. Furthermore, we find that depending on region some crops are primarily sensitive to either ozone (for example, wheat) or heat (for example, maize) alone, providing a measure of relative benefits of climate adaptation versus ozone regulation for food security in different regions.

Quantifying global dust devil occurrence from meteorological analyses

PubMed Central

Jemmett-Smith, Bradley C; Marsham, John H; Knippertz, Peter; Gilkeson, Carl A

2015-01-01

Dust devils and nonrotating dusty plumes are effective uplift mechanisms for fine particles, but their contribution to the global dust budget is uncertain. By applying known bulk thermodynamic criteria to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses, we provide the first global hourly climatology of potential dust devil and dusty plume (PDDP) occurrence. In agreement with observations, activity is highest from late morning into the afternoon. Combining PDDP frequencies with dust source maps and typical emission values gives the best estimate of global contributions of 3.4% (uncertainty 0.9–31%), 1 order of magnitude lower than the only estimate previously published. Total global hours of dust uplift by dry convection are ∼0.002% of the dust-lifting winds resolved by ECMWF, consistent with dry convection making a small contribution to global uplift. Reducing uncertainty requires better knowledge of factors controlling PDDP occurrence, source regions, and dust fluxes induced by dry convection. Key Points Global potential dust devil occurrence quantified from meteorological analyses Climatology shows realistic diurnal cycle and geographical distribution Best estimate of global contribution of 3.4% is 10 times smaller than the previous estimate PMID:26681815

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis H.; Bunce, James A.; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R.; Baker, Jeffrey T.; Newton, Paul C. D.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Jagadish, Krishna S. V.; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T.

2012-01-01

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO2 to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO2 and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO2 responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change. PMID:22874755

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R; Baker, Jeffrey T; Newton, Paul C D; Reynolds, Matthew P; Jagadish, Krishna S V; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T

2012-10-22

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO(2) to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO(2) and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO(2) responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.

Neuroprotective effect of lidocaine: is there clinical potential?

PubMed Central

Leng, Tiandong; Gao, Xiuren; Dilger, James P; Lin, Jun

2016-01-01

Local anesthetic lidocaine has been shown to be protective in animal models of focal and global ischemia as well as in in vitro hypoxic models. Lidocaine has been tested in patients for its potential protective effect on postoperative cognitive dysfunction. This mini-review summarizes the laboratory and clinical evidences and discusses its clinical applications as neuroprotective agent. PMID:27186318

Beyond Job Satisfaction: A Five-Year Prospective Analysis of the Dispositional Approach to Work Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowling, Nathan A.; Beehr, Terry A.; Lepisto, Lawrence R.

2006-01-01

Mounting evidence indicates a dispositional component to global job satisfaction. Unfortunately, however, relatively little attention has been given to the potential effects of dispositions on work-related attitudes other than global job satisfaction. We used a five-year prospective design to investigate the relationships of affective disposition…

Extending the Global Dialogue about Media, Technology, Screen Time, and Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ernest, James M.; Causey, Cora; Newton, Allison B.; Sharkins, Kimberly; Summerlin, Jennifer; Albaiz, Najla

2014-01-01

Questions about the potential benefits and dangers of media and technology use abound, with competing theories regarding its effects among young children. This article explores global perspectives on children's exposure to media, technology, and screen time (MeTS) in the schools, homes, and communities of an increasingly technology-driven world.…

Learning Abroad or Just Going Abroad? International Education in Opposite Sides of the Border

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramírez, Gerardo Blanco

2013-01-01

International education, particularly through study abroad experiences, has the potential of preparing students for a globally interconnected world. While challenging, it is necessary to translate aspirations of global citizenship into educational programs and assessing their effectiveness. A necessary step in such process consists in taking a…

Polygenic pleiotropy and potential causal relationships between educational attainment, neurobiological profile, and positive psychotic symptoms.

PubMed

Lin, Yen-Feng; Chen, Chia-Yen; Öngür, Dost; Betensky, Rebecca; Smoller, Jordan W; Blacker, Deborah; Hall, Mei-Hua

2018-05-16

Event-related potential (ERP) components have been used to assess cognitive functions in patients with psychotic illness. Evidence suggests that among patients with psychosis there is a distinct heritable neurophysiologic phenotypic subtype captured by impairments across a range of ERP measures. In this study, we investigated the genetic basis of this "globally impaired" ERP cluster and its relationship to psychosis and cognitive abilities. We applied K-means clustering to six ERP measures to re-derive the globally impaired (n = 60) and the non-globally impaired ERP clusters (n = 323) in a sample of cases with schizophrenia (SCZ = 136) or bipolar disorder (BPD = 121) and healthy controls (n = 126). We used genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for SCZ, BPD, college completion, and childhood intelligence as the discovery datasets to derive polygenic risk scores (PRS) in our study sample and tested their associations with globally impaired ERP. We conducted mediation analyses to estimate the proportion of each PRS effect on severity of psychotic symptoms that is mediated through membership in the globally impaired ERP. Individuals with globally impaired ERP had significantly higher PANSS-positive scores (β = 3.95, P = 0.005). The SCZ-PRS was nominally associated with globally impaired ERP (unadjusted P = 0.01; R 2  = 3.07%). We also found a significant positive association between the college-PRS and globally impaired ERP (FDR-corrected P = 0.004; R 2  = 6.15%). The effect of college-PRS on PANSS positivity was almost entirely (97.1%) mediated through globally impaired ERP. These results suggest that the globally impaired ERP phenotype may represent some aspects of brain physiology on the path between genetic influences on educational attainment and psychotic symptoms.

Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical Framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Shujiang; Kline, Keith L; Nair, S. Surendran

A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global-scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized natural resources datasets, (ii) global field-trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high-performance computing (HPC) simulation, and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC-Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (HPC-EPIC) model simulatedmore » a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus, energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass field-trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding metrics of sustainability.« less

Global Sources and Pathways of Mercury in the Context of Human Health.

PubMed

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Pirrone, Nicola; Thorne, Rebecca J

2017-01-22

This paper reviews information from the existing literature and the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project to assess the current scientific knowledge on global mercury releases into the atmosphere, on global atmospheric transport and deposition, and on the linkage between environmental contamination and potential impacts on human health. The review concludes that assessment of global sources and pathways of mercury in the context of human health is important for being able to monitor the effects from implementation of the Minamata Convention targets, although new research is needed on the improvement of emission inventory data, the chemical and physical behaviour of mercury in the atmosphere, the improvement of monitoring network data, predictions of future emissions and speciation, and on the subsequent effects on the environment, human health, as well as the economic costs and benefits of reducing these aspects.

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving PAGER losses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, David J.

2010-01-01

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER’s overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability.

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

2010-01-01

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. I - The lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hays, P. B.; Roble, R. G.

1979-01-01

A quasi-steady model of global lower atmospheric electricity is presented. The model considers thunderstorms as dipole electric generators that can be randomly distributed in various regions and that are the only source of atmospheric electricity and includes the effects of orography and electrical coupling along geomagnetic field lines in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The model is used to calculate the global distribution of electric potential and current for model conductivities and assumed spatial distributions of thunderstorms. Results indicate that large positive electric potentials are generated over thunderstorms and penetrate to ionospheric heights and into the conjugate hemisphere along magnetic field lines. The perturbation of the calculated electric potential and current distributions during solar flares and subsequent Forbush decreases is discussed, and future measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters and modifications of the model which would improve the agreement between calculations and measurements are suggested.

Schistosomiasis elimination strategies and potential role of a vaccine in achieving global health goals.

PubMed

Mo, Annie X; Agosti, Jan M; Walson, Judd L; Hall, B Fenton; Gordon, Lance

2014-01-01

In March 2013, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation co-sponsored a meeting entitled "Schistosomiasis Elimination Strategy and Potential Role of a Vaccine in Achieving Global Health Goals" to discuss the potential role of schistosomiasis vaccines and other tools in the context of schistosomiasis control and elimination strategies. It was concluded that although schistosomiasis elimination in some focal areas may be achievable through current mass drug administration programs, global control and elimination will face several significant scientific and operational challenges, and will require an integrated approach with other, additional interventions. These challenges include vector (snail) control; environmental modification; water, sanitation, and hygiene; and other future innovative tools such as vaccines. Defining a clear product development plan that reflects a vaccine strategy as complementary to the existing control programs to combat different forms of schistosomiasis will be important to develop a vaccine effectively.

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

2014-02-01

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician

PubMed Central

Porada, P.; Lenton, T. M.; Pohl, A.; Weber, B.; Mander, L.; Donnadieu, Y.; Beer, C.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

2016-01-01

It has been hypothesized that predecessors of today's bryophytes significantly increased global chemical weathering in the Late Ordovician, thus reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration and contributing to climate cooling and an interval of glaciations. Studies that try to quantify the enhancement of weathering by non-vascular vegetation, however, are usually limited to small areas and low numbers of species, which hampers extrapolating to the global scale and to past climatic conditions. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate global weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. We estimate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 (km3 rock) yr−1, defined here as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. This is around three times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Moreover, we find that simulated weathering is highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies a strong negative feedback between weathering by non-vascular vegetation and Ordovician climate. PMID:27385026

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

Fate of global symmetries in the Universe: QCD axion, quintessential axion and trans-Planckian inflaton decay constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jihn E.; Nam, Soonkeon; Semetzidis, Yannis K.

2018-01-01

Pseudoscalars appearing in particle physics are reviewed systematically. From the fundamental point of view at an ultraviolet completed theory, they can be light if they are realized as pseudo-Goldstone bosons of some spontaneously broken global symmetries. The spontaneous breaking scale is parametrized by the decay constant f. The global symmetry is defined by the lowest order terms allowed in the effective theory consistent with the gauge symmetry in question. Since any global symmetry is known to be broken at least by quantum gravitational effects, all pseudoscalars should be massive. The mass scale is determined by f and the explicit breaking terms ΔV in the effective potential and also anomaly terms ΔΛG4 for some non-Abelian gauge groups G. The well-known example by non-Abelian gauge group breaking is the potential for the “invisible” QCD axion, via the Peccei-Quinn symmetry, which constitutes a major part of this review. Even if there is no breaking terms from gauge anomalies, there can be explicit breaking terms ΔV in the potential in which case the leading term suppressed by f determines the pseudoscalar mass scale. If the breaking term is extremely small and the decay constant is trans-Planckian, the corresponding pseudoscalar can be a candidate for a “quintessential axion.” In general, (ΔV )1/4 is considered to be smaller than f, and hence the pseudo-Goldstone boson mass scales are considered to be smaller than the decay constants. In such a case, the potential of the pseudo-Goldstone boson at the grand unification scale is sufficiently flat near the top of the potential that it can be a good candidate for an inflationary model, which is known as “natural inflation.” We review all these ideas in the bosonic collective motion framework.

Neural signature of the conscious processing of auditory regularities

PubMed Central

Bekinschtein, Tristan A.; Dehaene, Stanislas; Rohaut, Benjamin; Tadel, François; Cohen, Laurent; Naccache, Lionel

2009-01-01

Can conscious processing be inferred from neurophysiological measurements? Some models stipulate that the active maintenance of perceptual representations across time requires consciousness. Capitalizing on this assumption, we designed an auditory paradigm that evaluates cerebral responses to violations of temporal regularities that are either local in time or global across several seconds. Local violations led to an early response in auditory cortex, independent of attention or the presence of a concurrent visual task, whereas global violations led to a late and spatially distributed response that was only present when subjects were attentive and aware of the violations. We could detect the global effect in individual subjects using functional MRI and both scalp and intracerebral event-related potentials. Recordings from 8 noncommunicating patients with disorders of consciousness confirmed that only conscious individuals presented a global effect. Taken together these observations suggest that the presence of the global effect is a signature of conscious processing, although it can be absent in conscious subjects who are not aware of the global auditory regularities. This simple electrophysiological marker could thus serve as a useful clinical tool. PMID:19164526

Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak

1990-01-01

The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

2014-04-01

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hansen; Ronald P. Neilson; Virginia H. Dale; Curtis H. Flather; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Currie; Sarah Shafer; Rosamonde Cook; Partick J. Bartlein

2001-01-01

This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may...

Coal and Nuclear Wastes--Both Potential Contributors to Environmental and Health Problems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-21

34 greenhouse effect ," which occurs when carbon dioxide traps heat that would otherwise radiate into space. A warmer global temperature of this magnitude...as the year 2000) could cause the average global temperature to rise 1.5 to 3.0 degrees centigrade. This is due to a phenomenon commonly called the

Increases in Global and Domain Specific Self-Esteem Following a 10 Day Developmental Voyage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grocott, Andrew C.; Hunter, John A.

2009-01-01

Although positive effects are often reported, research assessing the impact of Adventure Education and Outward Bound programmes on self-esteem is fraught with methodological weaknesses pertaining to an emphasis on scales assessing global self-esteem, a lack of follow-up measures to assess the potential long-term benefits of such programmes and…

Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Henry D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Saleska, Scott; Huxman, Travis E.; McDowell, Nathan G.

2010-01-01

One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [Bonan, 2008; Chapin et al., 2008].According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [Allen et al., 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W. John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-01-01

Background The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. Methods and Findings To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Conclusions Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks. PMID:16640458

Enhanced acidification of global coral reefs driven by regional biogeochemical feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cyronak, Tyler; Schulz, Kai G.; Santos, Isaac R.; Eyre, Bradley D.

2014-08-01

Physical uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is the dominant driver of ocean acidification (OA) in the open ocean. Due to expected decreases in calcification and increased dissolution of CaCO3 framework, coral reefs are thought to be highly susceptible to OA. However, biogeochemical processes can influence the pCO2 and pH of coastal ecosystems on diel and seasonal time scales, potentially modifying the long-term effects of increasing atmospheric CO2. By compiling data from the literature and removing the effects of short-term variability, we show that the average pCO2 of coral reefs throughout the globe has increased ~3.5-fold faster than in the open ocean over the past 20 years. This rapid increase in pCO2 has the potential to enhance the acidification and predicted effects of OA on coral reef ecosystems. A simple model demonstrates that potential drivers of elevated pCO2 include additional anthropogenic disturbances beyond increasing global atmospheric CO2 such as enhanced nutrient and organic matter inputs.

Evaluation of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential during mainstream large-scale aerobic composting.

PubMed

He, Xueqin; Chen, Longjian; Han, Lujia; Liu, Ning; Cui, Ruxiu; Yin, Hongjie; Huang, Guangqun

2017-12-01

This study investigated the effects of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential (GWP) in the large-scale aerobic composting pattern which includes cyclical forced-turning with aeration at the bottom of composting tanks in China. A 55-day large-scale aerobic composting experiment was conducted in two different groups without and with 10% biochar powder addition (by weight). The results show that biochar powder improves the holding ability of oxygen, and the duration time (O 2 >5%) is around 80%. The composting process with above pattern significantly reduce CH 4 and N 2 O emissions compared to the static or turning-only styles. Considering the average GWP of the BC group was 19.82% lower than that of the CK group, it suggests that rational addition of biochar powder has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of turning, improve effectiveness of the oxygen supply, and reduce comprehensive greenhouse effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The implications of megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation for changes in global physical activity

PubMed Central

Pratt, Michael; Sarmiento, Olga L; Montes, Felipe; Ogilvie, David; Marcus, Bess H; Perez, Lilian G; Brownson, Ross C

2016-01-01

Physical inactivity accounts for more than 3 million deaths per year, most from non-communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We used reviews of physical activity interventions and a simulation model to examine how megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation directly and indirectly affect levels of physical activity across countries of low, middle, and high income. The model suggested that the direct and potentiating effects of information and communication technology, especially mobile phones, are nearly equal in magnitude to the mean effects of planned physical activity interventions. The greatest potential to increase population physical activity might thus be in creation of synergistic policies in sectors outside health including communication and transportation. However, there remains a glaring mismatch between where studies on physical activity interventions are undertaken and where the potential lies in low-income and middle-income countries for population-level effects that will truly affect global health. PMID:22818940

Cirrus Cloud Seeding has Potential to Cool Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storelvmo, T.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Muri, H.; Pfeffer, M.; Barahona, D.; Nenes, A.

2013-01-01

Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere, have a net warming effect on Earth s climate. Consequently, a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thickness would cool the climate. Recent research indicates that by seeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote ice nucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced. We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate model with a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and find that cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times to present day. However, the desired effect is only obtained for seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimal range. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, a seeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higher than optimal concentration results in an over-seeding that could have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetime and contributing to global warming.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Anthoff, David; Rose, Steven K.

We use FUND 3.8 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride emissions. The damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide—is also estimated. The damage potentials are compared to several metrics, focusing in particular on the global warming potentials, which are frequently used to measure the trade-off between gases in the form of carbon dioxide equivalents. We find that damage potentials could be significantly higher than global warming potentials. This finding implies that previous papersmore » have underestimated the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from an economic damage perspective. We show results for a range of sensitivity analyses: carbon dioxide fertilization on agriculture productivity, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. The sensitivity of the results to carbon dioxide fertilization is a primary focus as it is an important element of climate change that has not been considered in much of the previous literature. We estimate that carbon dioxide fertilization has a large positive impact that reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide with a much smaller effect on the other greenhouse gases. As a result, our estimates of the damage potentials of methane and nitrous oxide are much higher compared to estimates that ignore carbon dioxide fertilization. As a result, our base estimates of the damage potential for methane and nitrous oxide that include carbon dioxide fertilization are twice their respective global warming potentials. Our base estimate of the damage potential of sulphur hexafluoride is similar to the one previous estimate, both almost three times the global warming potential.« less

Global Sources and Pathways of Mercury in the Context of Human Health

PubMed Central

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Pirrone, Nicola; Thorne, Rebecca J.

2017-01-01

This paper reviews information from the existing literature and the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project to assess the current scientific knowledge on global mercury releases into the atmosphere, on global atmospheric transport and deposition, and on the linkage between environmental contamination and potential impacts on human health. The review concludes that assessment of global sources and pathways of mercury in the context of human health is important for being able to monitor the effects from implementation of the Minamata Convention targets, although new research is needed on the improvement of emission inventory data, the chemical and physical behaviour of mercury in the atmosphere, the improvement of monitoring network data, predictions of future emissions and speciation, and on the subsequent effects on the environment, human health, as well as the economic costs and benefits of reducing these aspects. PMID:28117743

Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

PubMed

Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

2011-01-01

Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

Potential and flux field landscape theory. I. Global stability and dynamics of spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems.

PubMed

Wu, Wei; Wang, Jin

2013-09-28

We established a potential and flux field landscape theory to quantify the global stability and dynamics of general spatially dependent non-equilibrium deterministic and stochastic systems. We extended our potential and flux landscape theory for spatially independent non-equilibrium stochastic systems described by Fokker-Planck equations to spatially dependent stochastic systems governed by general functional Fokker-Planck equations as well as functional Kramers-Moyal equations derived from master equations. Our general theory is applied to reaction-diffusion systems. For equilibrium spatially dependent systems with detailed balance, the potential field landscape alone, defined in terms of the steady state probability distribution functional, determines the global stability and dynamics of the system. The global stability of the system is closely related to the topography of the potential field landscape in terms of the basins of attraction and barrier heights in the field configuration state space. The effective driving force of the system is generated by the functional gradient of the potential field alone. For non-equilibrium spatially dependent systems, the curl probability flux field is indispensable in breaking detailed balance and creating non-equilibrium condition for the system. A complete characterization of the non-equilibrium dynamics of the spatially dependent system requires both the potential field and the curl probability flux field. While the non-equilibrium potential field landscape attracts the system down along the functional gradient similar to an electron moving in an electric field, the non-equilibrium flux field drives the system in a curly way similar to an electron moving in a magnetic field. In the small fluctuation limit, the intrinsic potential field as the small fluctuation limit of the potential field for spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems, which is closely related to the steady state probability distribution functional, is found to be a Lyapunov functional of the deterministic spatially dependent system. Therefore, the intrinsic potential landscape can characterize the global stability of the deterministic system. The relative entropy functional of the stochastic spatially dependent non-equilibrium system is found to be the Lyapunov functional of the stochastic dynamics of the system. Therefore, the relative entropy functional quantifies the global stability of the stochastic system with finite fluctuations. Our theory offers an alternative general approach to other field-theoretic techniques, to study the global stability and dynamics of spatially dependent non-equilibrium field systems. It can be applied to many physical, chemical, and biological spatially dependent non-equilibrium systems.

Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

2017-06-01

The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

2015-12-01

Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of deforestation and its consequences on the climate change in Turkey. Suggestions on preventing negative effects are also given.

Electron acceptor redox potential globally regulates transcriptomic profiling in Shewanella decolorationis S12

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Yingli; Yang, Yonggang; Guo, Jun; Wang, Yan; Li, Xiaojing; Fang, Yun; Gan, Lixia; Xu, Meiying

2016-08-01

Electron acceptor redox potential (EARP) was presumed to be a determining factor for microbial metabolism in many natural and engineered processes. However, little is known about the potentially global effects of EARP on bacteria. In this study, we compared the physiological and transcriptomic properties of Shewanella decolorationis S12 respiring with different EARPs in microbial electrochemical systems to avoid the effects caused by the other physicochemical properties of real electron acceptor. Results showed that the metabolic activities of strain S12 were nonlinear responses to EARP. The tricarboxylic acid cycle for central carbon metabolism was down-regulated while glyoxylate shunt was up-regulated at 0.8 V compared to 0.2 and -0.2 V, which suggested that EARP is an important but not the only determinant for metabolic pathways of strain S12. Moreover, few cytochrome c genes were differentially expressed at different EARPs. The energy intensive flagella assembly and assimilatory sulfur metabolism pathways were significantly enriched at 0.8 V, which suggested strain S12 had stronger electrokinesis behavior and oxidative stress-response at high EARP. This study provides the first global information of EARP regulations on microbial metabolism, which will be helpful for understanding microorganism respiration.

The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

PubMed

Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

2017-10-11

Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

Global cytosine methylation in Daphnia magna depends on genotype, environment, and their interaction.

PubMed

Asselman, Jana; De Coninck, Dieter I M; Vandegehuchte, Michiel B; Jansen, Mieke; Decaestecker, Ellen; De Meester, Luc; Vanden Bussche, Julie; Vanhaecke, Lynn; Janssen, Colin R; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C

2015-05-01

The authors characterized global cytosine methylation levels in 2 different genotypes of the ecotoxicological model organism Daphnia magna after exposure to a wide array of biotic and abiotic environmental stressors. The present study aimed to improve the authors' understanding of the role of cytosine methylation in the organism's response to environmental conditions. The authors observed a significant genotype effect, an environment effect, and a genotype × environment effect. In particular, global cytosine methylation levels were significantly altered after exposure to Triops predation cues, Microcystis, and sodium chloride compared with control conditions. Significant differences between the 2 genotypes were observed when animals were exposed to Triops predation cues, Microcystis, Cryptomonas, and sodium chloride. Despite the low global methylation rate under control conditions (0.49-0.52%), global cytosine methylation levels upon exposure to Triops demonstrated a 5-fold difference between the genotypes (0.21% vs 1.02%). No effects were found in response to arsenic, cadmium, fish, lead, pH of 5.5, pH of 8, temperature, hypoxia, and white fat cell disease. The authors' results point to the potential role of epigenetic effects under changing environmental conditions such as predation (i.e., Triops), diet (i.e., Cryptomonas and Microcystis), and salinity. The results of the present study indicate that, despite global cytosine methylation levels being low, epigenetic effects may be important in environmental studies on Daphnia. © 2015 SETAC.

A Prescription for the Emerging World: The Global Potential of the Community College Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellow, Gail O.; Katopes, Peter

2009-01-01

In order to respond effectively to the burgeoning global knowledge economy, each nation must educate a greater number of people to higher levels than ever before. And particular attention must be given to expanding the ability of low-income individuals to access and succeed in college--especially in the developing world, where they make up such a…

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON REGIONAL U.S. AIR QUALITY: A SYNTHESIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE (AN INTERIM REPORT OF THE U.S. EPA GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM)

EPA Science Inventory

The Air Quality Assessment Final Report is intended for managers and scientists working on air quality to provide them with information on the potential effects of climate change on regional air quality in the United States.

[Preparedness for influenza A/H5N1 pandemic in Niger: a study on health care workers' knowledge and global organization of health activities].

PubMed

d'Alessandro, E; Soula, G; Jaffré, Y; Gourouza, B; Adehossi, E; Delmont, J

2012-02-01

In industrialized countries, the emergence of potentially pandemic influenza virus has invited reactions consistent with the potential threat represented by these infectious agents. However, with globalization, controlling epidemics depends as much on an effective global coordination of control methods as on preparedness of northern and southern national health care systems, at the core of which are health care workers. Our study was conducted in the National Hospital of Niamey, the main Nigerian hospital. Its objective was to evaluate the knowledge of health care professionals regarding flu pandemic and control of infection. We interviewed 178 nursing staff, doctors and paramedics on the basis of a survey. This study - the first to our knowledge to explore these issues in the African context-revealed that caregivers have a rather good mastery of theoretical knowledge. Nevertheless, beyond theoretical knowledge, miscellaneous factors compromise the effectiveness of the health care structure. Some of them seem to occupy a critical position, particularly the absence of shared references among sanitary authorities and health care professionals, and the weaknesses of global coordination of preventive activities and case management.

Global network centrality of university rankings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Weisi; Del Vecchio, Marco; Pogrebna, Ganna

2017-10-01

Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and its global physical connectedness has not been explored in detail. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first large-scale data-driven analysis into whether there is a correlation between university relative ranking performance and its global connectivity via the air transport network. The results show that local access to global hubs (as measured by air transport network betweenness) strongly and positively correlates with the ranking growth (statistical significance in different models ranges between 5% and 1% level). We also found that the local airport's aggregate flight paths (degree) and capacity (weighted degree) has no effect on university ranking, further showing that global connectivity distance is more important than the capacity of flight connections. We also examined the effect of local city economic development as a confounding variable and no effect was observed suggesting that access to global transportation hubs outweighs economic performance as a determinant of university ranking. The impact of this research is that we have determined the importance of the centrality of global connectivity and, hence, established initial evidence for further exploring potential connections between university ranking and regional investment policies on improving global connectivity.

Global network centrality of university rankings

PubMed Central

Del Vecchio, Marco; Pogrebna, Ganna

2017-01-01

Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and its global physical connectedness has not been explored in detail. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first large-scale data-driven analysis into whether there is a correlation between university relative ranking performance and its global connectivity via the air transport network. The results show that local access to global hubs (as measured by air transport network betweenness) strongly and positively correlates with the ranking growth (statistical significance in different models ranges between 5% and 1% level). We also found that the local airport’s aggregate flight paths (degree) and capacity (weighted degree) has no effect on university ranking, further showing that global connectivity distance is more important than the capacity of flight connections. We also examined the effect of local city economic development as a confounding variable and no effect was observed suggesting that access to global transportation hubs outweighs economic performance as a determinant of university ranking. The impact of this research is that we have determined the importance of the centrality of global connectivity and, hence, established initial evidence for further exploring potential connections between university ranking and regional investment policies on improving global connectivity. PMID:29134105

Understanding Fear of Opportunism in Global Prize-Based Science Contests: Evidence for Gender and Age Differences

PubMed Central

Acar, Oguz Ali; van den Ende, Jan

2015-01-01

Global prize-based science contests have great potential for tapping into diverse knowledge on a global scale and overcoming important scientific challenges. A necessary step for knowledge to be utilized in these contests is for that knowledge to be disclosed. Knowledge disclosure, however, is paradoxical in nature: in order for the value of knowledge to be assessed, inventors must disclose their knowledge, but then the person who receives that knowledge does so at no cost and may use it opportunistically. This risk of potential opportunistic behavior in turn makes the inventor fearful of disclosing knowledge, and this is a major psychological barrier to knowledge disclosure. In this project, we investigated this fear of opportunism in global prize-based science contests by surveying 630 contest participants in the InnoCentive online platform for science contests. We found that participants in these science contests experience fear of opportunism to varying degrees, and that women and older participants have significantly less fear of disclosing their scientific knowledge. Our findings highlight the importance of taking differences in such fears into account when designing global prize-based contests so that the potential of the contests for reaching solutions to important and challenging problems can be used more effectively. PMID:26230086

Understanding Fear of Opportunism in Global Prize-Based Science Contests: Evidence for Gender and Age Differences.

PubMed

Acar, Oguz Ali; van den Ende, Jan

2015-01-01

Global prize-based science contests have great potential for tapping into diverse knowledge on a global scale and overcoming important scientific challenges. A necessary step for knowledge to be utilized in these contests is for that knowledge to be disclosed. Knowledge disclosure, however, is paradoxical in nature: in order for the value of knowledge to be assessed, inventors must disclose their knowledge, but then the person who receives that knowledge does so at no cost and may use it opportunistically. This risk of potential opportunistic behavior in turn makes the inventor fearful of disclosing knowledge, and this is a major psychological barrier to knowledge disclosure. In this project, we investigated this fear of opportunism in global prize-based science contests by surveying 630 contest participants in the InnoCentive online platform for science contests. We found that participants in these science contests experience fear of opportunism to varying degrees, and that women and older participants have significantly less fear of disclosing their scientific knowledge. Our findings highlight the importance of taking differences in such fears into account when designing global prize-based contests so that the potential of the contests for reaching solutions to important and challenging problems can be used more effectively.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

PubMed

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Global health impacts of policies: lessons from the UK.

PubMed

Mwatsama, Modi K; Wong, Sidney; Ettehad, Dena; Watt, Nicola F

2014-03-10

The UK government committed to undertaking impact assessments of its policies on the health of populations in low and middle-income countries in its cross-government strategy "Health is Global". To facilitate this process, the Department of Health, in collaboration with the National Heart Forum, initiated a project to pilot the use of a global health impact assessment guidance framework and toolkit for policy-makers. This paper aims to stimulate debate about the desirability and feasibility of global health impact assessments by describing and drawing lessons from the first stage of the project. Despite the attraction of being able to assess and address potential global health impacts of policies, there is a dearth of existing information and experience. A literature review was followed by discussions with policy-makers and an online survey about potential barriers, preferred support mechanisms and potential policies on which to pilot the toolkit. Although policy-makers were willing to engage in hypothetical discussions about the methodology, difficulties in identifying potential pilots suggest a wider problem in encouraging take up without legislative imperatives. This is reinforced by the findings of the survey that barriers to uptake included lack of time, resources and expertise. We identified three lessons for future efforts to mainstream global health impact assessments: 1) Identify a lead government department and champion--to some extent, this role was fulfilled by the Department of Health, however, it lacked a high-level cross-government mechanism to support implementation. 2) Ensure adequate resources and consider embedding the goals and principles of global health impact assessments into existing processes to maximise those resources. 3) Develop an effective delivery mechanism involving both state actors, and non-state actors who can ensure a "voice" for constituencies who are affected by government policies and also provide the "demand" for the assessments. This paper uses the initial stages of a study on global health impact assessments to pose the wider question of incentives for policy-makers to improve global health. It highlights three lessons for successful development and implementation of global health impact assessments in relation to stewardship, resources, and delivery mechanisms.

Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2012-01-01

The Global Change Ecology and Wetlands book series will highlight the latest research from the world leaders in the field of climate change in wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands highlights information of importance to wetland ecologists.  The chapters include syntheses of international studies on the effects of drought on function and regeneration in wetlands, sea level rise and the distribution of mangrove swamps, former distributions of swamp species and future lessons from paleoecology, and shifts in atmospheric emissions across geographical regions in wetlands.  Overall, the book will contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on world wetland distribution and function.

78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-05

... Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming Potential Values for Certain... the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and analysis submitted in... global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them. We are also requesting comment on...

Potential sea-level rise impacts on tidal wetlands in the Pacific Northwest: Declines in productivity and diversity?

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change could alter sea-level and salinity dynamics in Pacific Northwest estuaries. We combined survey and experimental approaches to better understand potential climate change effects on the future of tidal wetland primary producers in the region. Surveys conducte...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

Effects of climate change on croplands

EPA Science Inventory

This talk will describe likely changes in temperature and precipitation expected in the northwestern US with global climate change, and their potential impacts on Oregon croplands. The focus will be on the effects of temperature and carbon dioxide on crop productivity, weed cont...

Estimating European soil organic carbon mitigation potential in a global integrated land use model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Böttcher, Hannes; Schneider, Uwe; Schmid, Erwin; Havlík, Petr

2013-04-01

Several studies have shown the dynamic interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates, soil management decisions and SOC levels. Management practices such as reduced and no-tillage, improved residue management and crop rotations as well as the conversion of marginal cropland to native vegetation or conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland offer the potential to increase SOC content. Even though dynamic interactions are widely acknowledged in literature, they have not been implemented in most existing land use decision models. A major obstacle is the high data and computing requirements for an explicit representation of alternative land use sequences since a model has to be able to track all different management decision paths. To our knowledge no study accounted so far for SOC dynamics explicitly in a global integrated land use model. To overcome these conceptual difficulties described above we apply an approach capable of accounting for SOC dynamics in GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model), a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model integrating the agricultural, bioenergy and forestry sectors. GLOBIOM represents all major land based sectors and therefore is able to account for direct and indirect effects of land use change as well as leakage effects (e.g. through trade) implicitly. Together with the detailed representation of technologies (e.g. tillage and fertilizer management systems), these characteristics make the model a highly valuable tool for assessing European SOC emissions and mitigation potential. Demand and international trade are represented in this version of the model at the level of 27 EU member states and 23 aggregated world regions outside Europe. Changes in the demand on the one side, and profitability of the different land based activities on the other side, are the major determinants of land use change in GLOBIOM. In this paper we estimate SOC emissions from cropland for the EU until 2050 explicitly considering SOC dynamics due to land use and land management in a global integrated land use model. Moreover, we calculate the EU SOC mitigation potential taking into account leakage effects outside Europe as well as related feed backs from other sectors. In sensitivity analysis, we disaggregate the SOC mitigation potential i.e. we quantify the impact of different management systems and crop rotations to identify most promising mitigation strategies.

Treatment effects in multiple cognitive domains in Alzheimer’s disease: a two-year cohort study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction Despite widespread use of second-generation cholinesterase inhibitors for the symptomatic treatment of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), little is known about the long term effects of cholinergic treatment on global cognitive function and potential specific effects in different cognitive domains. The objectives of this study were to determine the association between cholinergic treatment and global cognitive function over one and two years in a cohort of patients with mild or moderate AD and identify potential differences in domain-specific cognitive outcomes within this cohort. Methods A cohort of patients meeting the revised National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria for mild or moderate AD, including patients both on treatment with a cholinesterase inhibitor and untreated controls (treated = 65, untreated = 65), were recruited from the Cognitive Neurology Clinic at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, as part of the Sunnybrook Dementia Study. Patients were followed for one to two years and underwent standardized neuropsychological assessments to evaluate global and domain-specific cognitive function. Associations between cholinesterase inhibitor use and global and domain-specific cognitive outcome measures at one and two years of follow-up were estimated using mixed model linear regression, adjusting for age, education, and baseline mini mental state examination (MMSE). Results At one year, treated patients showed significantly less decline in global cognitive function, and treatment and time effects across tests of executive and visuospatial function. At two years, there was a significant trend towards less decline in global cognition for treated patients. Moreover, treated patients showed significant treatment and time effects across tests of executive functioning, memory, and visuospatial function. Conclusions The present study offers two important contributions to knowledge of the effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitor treatment in patients with mild-moderate AD: 1) that second-generation cholinesterase inhibitors demonstrate long-term effectiveness for reducing global cognitive decline over one to two years of follow-up, and 2) that decline in function for cognitive domains, including executive function, memory, and visuospatial skill that are primarily mediated by frontal networks and by the cholinergic system, rather than memory, may be slowed by treatment targeting the cholinergic system. PMID:25484926

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

Global opportunities in land and water use while staying within the safe (and just) operating space: quantifications of interactions and tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerten, Dieter; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Heck, Vera

2016-04-01

Staying within the safe and just operating space as defined by multiple planetary boundaries will be a major challenge especially in view of anticipated future increases in food demand, the potential need for balancing climate change (e.g. through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal) and its impacts, and the water and land demand associated with these goals and measures. This presentation will show simulation results from a comprehensive model-based study on the global potentials of diverse crop management options considered as opportunities to stay within the planetary boundaries for human freshwater use and land-system change. The quantified on-farm options include rainwater harvesting, soil conservation and more efficient irrigation, all of which are designed to use neither more water nor more land for agriculture than is presently the case. Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements could save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ambitious scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighbouring rainfed systems, could at the same time boost kilocalorie production by 26% globally. Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, such ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies could increase global kcal production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Global climate change would have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but the improvements in water management quantified here could buffer such effects to a significant degree. Thus, a substantial amount of anticipated future needs for food production could be fulfilled without further approaching / transgressing planetary boundaries. In addition, it will be shown how large-scale biomass plantations for the purpose of terrestrial CO2 removal (climate engineering, potentially implemented should the planetary boundary for climate change be further transgressed) would impact on land and water resources and, thus, how such measures would compromise attempts to stay within the safe operating space. In conclusion, this presentation provides new quantitative evidence for significant interactions and tradeoffs among different planetary boundaries.

Global warming and environmental contaminants in aquatic organisms: the need of the etho-toxicology approach.

PubMed

Manciocco, Arianna; Calamandrei, Gemma; Alleva, Enrico

2014-04-01

Environmental contaminants are associated with a wide spectrum of pathological effects. Temperature increase affects ambient distribution and toxicity of these chemicals in the water environment, representing a potentially emerging problem for aquatic species with short-, medium- and long-term repercussions on human health through the food chain. We assessed peer-reviewed literature, including primary studies, review articles and organizational reports available. We focused on studies concerning toxicity of environmental pollutants within a global warming scenario. Existing knowledge on the effects that the increase of water temperature in a contaminated situation has on physiological mechanisms of aquatic organisms is presented. Altogether we consider the potential consequences for the human beings due to fish and shellfish consumption. Finally, we propose an etho-toxicological approach to study the effects of toxicants in conditions of thermal increase, using aquatic organisms as experimental models under laboratory controlled conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biocrusts in the context of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences inmore » projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.« less

Schistosomiasis Elimination Strategies and Potential Role of a Vaccine in Achieving Global Health Goals

PubMed Central

Mo, Annie X.; Agosti, Jan M.; Walson, Judd L.; Hall, B. Fenton; Gordon, Lance

2014-01-01

In March 2013, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation co-sponsored a meeting entitled “Schistosomiasis Elimination Strategy and Potential Role of a Vaccine in Achieving Global Health Goals” to discuss the potential role of schistosomiasis vaccines and other tools in the context of schistosomiasis control and elimination strategies. It was concluded that although schistosomiasis elimination in some focal areas may be achievable through current mass drug administration programs, global control and elimination will face several significant scientific and operational challenges, and will require an integrated approach with other, additional interventions. These challenges include vector (snail) control; environmental modification; water, sanitation, and hygiene; and other future innovative tools such as vaccines. Defining a clear product development plan that reflects a vaccine strategy as complementary to the existing control programs to combat different forms of schistosomiasis will be important to develop a vaccine effectively. PMID:24402703

Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling.

PubMed

Bakun, A

1990-01-12

A mechanism exists whereby global greenhouse warning could, by intensifying the alongshore wind stress on the ocean surface, lead to acceleration of coastal upwelling. Evidence from several different regions suggests that the major coastal upwelling systems of the world have been growing in upwelling intensity as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the earth's atmosphere. Thus the cool foggy summer conditions that typify the coastlands of northern California and other similar upwelling regions might, under global warming, become even more pronounced. Effects of enhanced upwelling on the marine ecosystem are uncertain but potentially dramatic.

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

ACCUMULATION AND EFFECTS OF PFOS ON THE REPRODUCTIVE ENDOCRINOLOGY OF THE FATHEAD MINNOW

EPA Science Inventory

Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) is a globally-distributed contaminant in fish and wildlife. Comparatively little is known, however, concerning potential adverse effects of PFOS on reproduction and development of fish. There is some indication that PFOS could affect reproductive ...

One Health contributions towards more effective and equitable approaches to health in low- and middle-income countries

PubMed Central

Sharp, J.; Abela-Ridder, B.; Allan, K. J.; Buza, J.; Crump, J. A.; Davis, A.; Del Rio Vilas, V. J.; de Glanville, W. A.; Kazwala, R. R.; Kibona, T.; Lankester, F. J.; Lugelo, A.; Mmbaga, B. T.; Rubach, M. P.; Swai, E. S.; Waldman, L.; Haydon, D. T.; Hampson, K.

2017-01-01

Emerging zoonoses with pandemic potential are a stated priority for the global health security agenda, but endemic zoonoses also have a major societal impact in low-resource settings. Although many endemic zoonoses can be treated, timely diagnosis and appropriate clinical management of human cases is often challenging. Preventive ‘One Health’ interventions, e.g. interventions in animal populations that generate human health benefits, may provide a useful approach to overcoming some of these challenges. Effective strategies, such as animal vaccination, already exist for the prevention, control and elimination of many endemic zoonoses, including rabies, and several livestock zoonoses (e.g. brucellosis, leptospirosis, Q fever) that are important causes of human febrile illness and livestock productivity losses in low- and middle-income countries. We make the case that, for these diseases, One Health interventions have the potential to be more effective and generate more equitable benefits for human health and livelihoods, particularly in rural areas, than approaches that rely exclusively on treatment of human cases. We hypothesize that applying One Health interventions to tackle these health challenges will help to build trust, community engagement and cross-sectoral collaboration, which will in turn strengthen the capacity of fragile health systems to respond to the threat of emerging zoonoses and other future health challenges. One Health interventions thus have the potential to align the ongoing needs of disadvantaged communities with the concerns of the broader global community, providing a pragmatic and equitable approach to meeting the global goals for sustainable development and supporting the global health security agenda. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. PMID:28584176

Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2005-01-01

The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest priorities for future improvements in global fresh water budget monitoring. The priorities are based on the potential of new approaches to provide improved measurement and modeling systems, and on the need to measure and understand the potential for a speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Zebrafish embryos as a screen for DNA methylation modifications after compound exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouwmeester, Manon C.; Ruiter, Sander; Lommelaars, Tobias

Modified epigenetic programming early in life is proposed to underlie the development of an adverse adult phenotype, known as the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) concept. Several environmental contaminants have been implicated as modifying factors of the developing epigenome. This underlines the need to investigate this newly recognized toxicological risk and systematically screen for the epigenome modifying potential of compounds. In this study, we examined the applicability of the zebrafish embryo as a screening model for DNA methylation modifications. Embryos were exposed from 0 to 72 h post fertilization (hpf) to bisphenol-A (BPA), diethylstilbestrol, 17α-ethynylestradiol, nickel, cadmium, tributyltin,more » arsenite, perfluoroctanoic acid, valproic acid, flusilazole, 5-azacytidine (5AC) in subtoxic concentrations. Both global and site-specific methylation was examined. Global methylation was only affected by 5AC. Genome wide locus-specific analysis was performed for BPA exposed embryos using Digital Restriction Enzyme Analysis of Methylation (DREAM), which showed minimal wide scale effects on the genome, whereas potential informative markers were not confirmed by pyrosequencing. Site-specific methylation was examined in the promoter regions of three selected genes vasa, vtg1 and cyp19a2, of which vasa (ddx4) was the most responsive. This analysis distinguished estrogenic compounds from metals by direction and sensitivity of the effect compared to embryotoxicity. In conclusion, the zebrafish embryo is a potential screening tool to examine DNA methylation modifications after xenobiotic exposure. The next step is to examine the adult phenotype of exposed embryos and to analyze molecular mechanisms that potentially link epigenetic effects and altered phenotypes, to support the DOHaD hypothesis. - Highlights: • Compound induced effects on DNA methylation in zebrafish embryos • Global methylation not an informative biomarker • Minimal genome wide site specific changes as detected with DREAM • Compound/class specific effects suggested by pyrosequence of specific targets • Zebrafish embryo may be a screening model for epigenetic effects.« less

A 2018 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity.

PubMed

Sutherland, William J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Connor, Ben; Culshaw, Caroline; Dicks, Lynn V; Dinsdale, Jason; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W; Jiang, Zhigang; Keim, Brandon; Roux, Xavier Le; Lickorish, Fiona A; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A; Mortimer, Diana; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Peck, Lloyd S; Pretty, Jules; Seymour, Colleen L; Spalding, Mark D; Tonneijck, Femke H; Gleave, Rosalind A

2018-01-01

This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Auroral Potential Drops on Field-Aligned Currents and Nightside Reconnection Dynamos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotko, W.; Xi, S.; Zhang, B.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Lyon, J.

2016-12-01

The reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to dynamic auroral potential drops is investigated using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global model and, for the first time in a global simulation, including the dissipative load of field-aligned potential drops in the low-altitude boundary condition. This extra load reduces the demand for field-aligned current (j||) from nightside reconnection dynamos. The system adapts by forcing the nightside x-line closer to Earth to reduce current lensing (j||/B = constant) at the ionosphere, with the plasma sheet undergoing additional contraction during substorm recovery and steady magnetospheric convection. For steady and moderate solar wind driving and with constant ionospheric conductance, the cross-polar cap potential and hemispheric field-aligned current are lower by approximately the ratio of the peak field-aligned potential drop to the cross polar cap potential (10-15%) when potential drops are included. Hemispheric ionospheric Joule dissipation is less by 8%, while the area-integrated, average work done on the fluid by the reconnecting magnetotail field increases by 50% within |y| < 8 RE. Effects on the nightside plasma sheet include: (1) an average x-line 4 RE closer to Earth; (2) a 12% higher mean reconnection rate; and (3) dawn-dusk asymmetry in reconnection with a 17% higher rate in the premidnight sector.

Effects of auroral potential drops on plasma sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, Sheng; Lotko, William; Zhang, Binzheng; Wiltberger, Michael; Lyon, John

2016-11-01

The reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to dynamic auroral potential drops is investigated using the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry global model including, for the first time in a global simulation, the dissipative load of field-aligned potential drops in the low-altitude boundary condition. This extra load reduces the field-aligned current (j||) supplied by nightside reconnection dynamos. The system adapts by forcing the nightside X line closer to Earth, with a corresponding reduction in current lensing (j||/B = constant) at the ionosphere and additional contraction of the plasma sheet during substorm recovery and steady magnetospheric convection. For steady and moderate solar wind driving and with constant ionospheric conductance, the cross polar cap potential and hemispheric field-aligned current are lower by approximately the ratio of the peak field-aligned potential drop to the cross polar cap potential (10-15%) when potential drops are included. Hemispheric ionospheric Joule dissipation is less by 8%, while the area-integrated, average work done on the fluid by the reconnecting magnetotail field increases by 50% within |y| < 8 RE. Effects on the nightside plasma sheet include (1) an average X line 4 RE closer to Earth; (2) a 12% higher mean reconnection rate; and (3) dawn-dusk asymmetry in reconnection with a 17% higher rate in the premidnight sector.

78 FR 21871 - Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Revision of the Venting Prohibition for Specific Refrigerant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-12

... Register GWP--Global warming potential HCFC-22--the chemical chlorodifluoromethane, CAS Reg No. 75-45-6... global warming potential. Second, EPA determines whether and to what extent such venting, release, or... discussed four types of environmental risks: ozone depletion potential, global warming potential, volatile...

Globalization and the marginalization of unskilled labor: potential impacts on health in developed nations.

PubMed

Ostry, Aleck Samuel

2009-01-01

The objective of this investigation was to determine the impacts of economic globalization on labor markets and outline potential pathways for these changes to affect health status in industrialized nations. A systematic review of the economic globalization and health literature revealed that, under the impact of globalization and market deregulation, the past 25 years have witnessed de-industrialization, shifts to nontraditional, insecure work arrangements, and relatively high levels of unemployment in most developed nations. This has occurred in the context of hypermobility of capital, relative immobility of labor, and declining market position for unskilled labor. Such structural changes in the labor markets in conjunction with shifts in educational opportunities and requirements have resulted in the increasing marginalization of unskilled workers from the labor market. Aside from direct effects on health due to the threat and experience of unemployment, and given that income inequality within nations is a main driver of national health status, lowered relative wages for the unskilled will probably affect national health status through increased income inequality.

A framework for nowcasting and forecasting of rainfall-triggered landslide activity using remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas

2016-04-01

Remote sensing data offers the unique perspective to provide situational awareness of hydrometeorological hazards over large areas in a way that is impossible to achieve with in situ data. Recent work has shown that rainfall-triggered landslides, while typically local hazards that occupy small spatial areas, can be approximated over regional or global scales in near real-time. This work presents a regional and global approach to approximating potential landslide activity using the landslide hazard assessment for situational awareness (LHASA) model. This system couples remote sensing data, including Global Precipitation Measurement rainfall data, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and other surface variables to estimate where and when landslide activity may be likely. This system also evaluates the effectiveness of quantitative precipitation estimates from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 to provide a 24 forecast of potential landslide activity. Preliminary results of the LHASA model and implications for are presented for a regional version of this system in Central America as well as a prototype global approach.

22 CFR 161.3 - Applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 12114 (January 4, 1979) for actions having potential effects on the environment of global commons or... decisions on all Departmental actions which may affect the quality of the environment within the United...

Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Moore, John; Yan, Qing; Song, Yi; Yang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Wenping; Chou, Jieming; Cui, Xuefeng; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Yang, Shili; Tian, Di; Lin, Pengfei; Yang, Song; Wen, Zhiping; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Feng, Guolin; Jiang, Yundi; Zhu, Xian; Chen, Juan; Wei, Xin; Shi, Wen; Zhang, Zhiguo; Dong, Juan; Li, Yexin; Chen, Deliang

2016-06-22

Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.

Predicted global warming scenarios impact on the mother plant to alter seed dormancy and germination behaviour in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Huang, Z; Footitt, S; Tang, A; Finch-Savage, W E

2018-01-01

Seed characteristics are key components of plant fitness that are influenced by temperature in their maternal environment, and temperature will change with global warming. To study the effect of such temperature changes, Arabidopsis thaliana plants were grown to produce seeds along a uniquely designed polyethylene tunnel having a thermal gradient reflecting local global warming predictions. Plants therefore experienced the same variations in temperature and light conditions but different mean temperatures. A range of seed-related plant fitness estimates were measured. There were dramatic non-linear temperature effects on the germination behaviour in two contrasting ecotypes. Maternal temperatures lower than 15-16 °C resulted in significantly greater primary dormancy. In addition, the impact of nitrate in the growing media on dormancy was shown only by seeds produced below 15-16 °C. However, there were no consistent effects on seed yield, number, or size. Effects on germination behaviour were shown to be a species characteristic responding to temperature and not time of year. Elevating temperature above this critical value during seed development has the potential to dramatically alter the timing of subsequent seed germination and the proportion entering the soil seed bank. This has potential consequences for the whole plant life cycle and species fitness. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.1634 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

Global health impacts of policies: lessons from the UK

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The UK government committed to undertaking impact assessments of its policies on the health of populations in low and middle-income countries in its cross-government strategy “Health is Global”. To facilitate this process, the Department of Health, in collaboration with the National Heart Forum, initiated a project to pilot the use of a global health impact assessment guidance framework and toolkit for policy-makers. This paper aims to stimulate debate about the desirability and feasibility of global health impact assessments by describing and drawing lessons from the first stage of the project. Discussion Despite the attraction of being able to assess and address potential global health impacts of policies, there is a dearth of existing information and experience. A literature review was followed by discussions with policy-makers and an online survey about potential barriers, preferred support mechanisms and potential policies on which to pilot the toolkit. Although policy-makers were willing to engage in hypothetical discussions about the methodology, difficulties in identifying potential pilots suggest a wider problem in encouraging take up without legislative imperatives. This is reinforced by the findings of the survey that barriers to uptake included lack of time, resources and expertise. We identified three lessons for future efforts to mainstream global health impact assessments: 1) Identify a lead government department and champion – to some extent, this role was fulfilled by the Department of Health, however, it lacked a high-level cross-government mechanism to support implementation. 2) Ensure adequate resources and consider embedding the goals and principles of global health impact assessments into existing processes to maximise those resources. 3) Develop an effective delivery mechanism involving both state actors, and non-state actors who can ensure a “voice” for constituencies who are affected by government policies and also provide the “demand” for the assessments. Summary This paper uses the initial stages of a study on global health impact assessments to pose the wider question of incentives for policy-makers to improve global health. It highlights three lessons for successful development and implementation of global health impact assessments in relation to stewardship, resources, and delivery mechanisms. PMID:24612523

Potential for production of perennial biofuel feedstocks in conservation buffers on the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With global increases in the production of cellulosic biomass for fuel, or “biofuel”, concerns over potential negative effects of using land for biofuel production have promoted attention to concepts of agricultural landscape design that sustainably balance tradeoffs between food, fuel, fiber and co...

Geochemical Impacts to Groundwater from Geologic Carbon Sequestration: Controls on pH and Inorganic Carbon Concentrations from Reaction Path and Kinetic Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

Geologic carbon sequestration has the potential to cause long-term reductions in global emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Safe and effective application of carbon sequestration technology requires an understanding of the potential risks to the quality of underground...

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W.

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due tomore » expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

The global financial crisis and Australian general practice.

PubMed

McRae, Ian S; Paolucci, Francesco

2011-02-01

To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by $0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels.

Desynchronization in an ensemble of globally coupled chaotic bursting neuronal oscillators by dynamic delayed feedback control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che, Yanqiu; Yang, Tingting; Li, Ruixue; Li, Huiyan; Han, Chunxiao; Wang, Jiang; Wei, Xile

2015-09-01

In this paper, we propose a dynamic delayed feedback control approach or desynchronization of chaotic-bursting synchronous activities in an ensemble of globally coupled neuronal oscillators. We demonstrate that the difference signal between an ensemble's mean field and its time delayed state, filtered and fed back to the ensemble, can suppress the self-synchronization in the ensemble. These individual units are decoupled and stabilized at the desired desynchronized states while the stimulation signal reduces to the noise level. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated by examples of two different populations of globally coupled chaotic-bursting neurons. The proposed method has potential for mild, effective and demand-controlled therapy of neurological diseases characterized by pathological synchronization.

Assessment of Global Wind Energy Resource Utilization Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, M.; He, B.; Guan, Y.; Zhang, H.; Song, S.

2017-09-01

Development of wind energy resource (WER) is a key to deal with climate change and energy structure adjustment. A crucial issue is to obtain the distribution and variability of WER, and mine the suitable location to exploit it. In this paper, a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) model is constructed by integrating resource richness and stability, utilization value and trend of resource, natural environment with weights. The global resource richness is assessed through wind power density (WPD) and multi-level wind speed. The utilizable value of resource is assessed by the frequency of effective wind. The resource stability is assessed by the coefficient of variation of WPD and the frequency of prevailing wind direction. Regression slope of long time series WPD is used to assess the trend of WER. All of the resource evaluation indicators are derived from the atmospheric reanalysis data ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0.125°. The natural environment factors mainly refer to slope and land-use suitability, which are derived from multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED 2010) and GlobalCover2009. Besides, the global WER utilization potential map is produced, which shows most high potential regions are located in north of Africa. Additionally, by verifying that 22.22 % and 48.8 9% operational wind farms fall on medium-high and high potential regions respectively, the result can provide a basis for the macroscopic siting of wind farm.

Urbanization and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didenko, N. I.; Skripnuk, D. F.; Mirolyubova, O. V.

2017-06-01

This article analyses the global environment. The article describes processes that characterize the global environment, specific indicators are suggested, that can be used to measure the change in the global environment. It is said that cities and all urbanized territories have a negative effect on the global environment. Originally, the authors wanted to call the article «City as a source of destruction of the global environment». But taking into account the fact that urbanization contributes to improving the economic efficiency of the state, cities are the centers of the economic, cultural and informational potential that provide a «breakthrough» into the development of the economy. The article assesses the impact of urbanization on the global environment. For the analysis of the impact of urbanization on the natural habitat, the autoregressive distributed lags (ADL-model) are chosen.

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

Treesearch

Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

2000-01-01

A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

Army Global Basing Posture: An Analytic Framework for Maximizing Responsiveness and Effectiveness

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

potential changes in the national security environment and to evaluate U.S. Army stationing, prepositioning, security cooperation activities, and...report should be of interest to those concerned with U.S. global posture and national security strategy, especially as it pertains to U.S. land power...40   A.1. United Nations Support Index for Plenary Votes, by State ................................................ 64   A.2. United Nations

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

2016-01-01

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

Climate Change and Fish Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Paul P. S.; Lassa, Jonatan; Caballero-Anthony, Mely

Human consumption of fish has been trending upwards in the past decades and this is projected to continue. The main sources of fish are from wild fisheries (marine and freshwater) and aquaculture. Climate change is anticipated to affect the availability of fish through its effect on these two sources as well as on supply chain processes such as storage, transport, processing and retail. Climate change is known to result in warmer and more acid oceans. Ocean acidification due to higher CO2 concentration levels at sea modifies the distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton to affect wild, capture fisheries. Higher temperature causes warm-water coral reefs to respond with species replacement and bleaching, leading to coral cover loss and habitat loss. Global changes in climatic systems may also cause fish invasion, extinction and turnover. While this may be catastrophic for small scale fish farming in poor tropical communities, there are also potential effects on animal protein supply shifts at local and global scales with food security consequences. This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Asian Pacific region, with special emphasis on Southeast Asia. The key question to be addressed is “What are the impacts of global climate change on global fish harvests and what does it mean to the availability of fish?”

Neocortical dynamics due to axon propagation delays in cortico-cortical fibers: EEG traveling and standing waves with implications for top-down influences on local networks and white matter disease

PubMed Central

Nunez, Paul L.; Srinivasan, Ramesh

2013-01-01

The brain is treated as a nested hierarchical complex system with substantial interactions across spatial scales. Local networks are pictured as embedded within global fields of synaptic action and action potentials. Global fields may act top-down on multiple networks, acting to bind remote networks. Because of scale-dependent properties, experimental electrophysiology requires both local and global models that match observational scales. Multiple local alpha rhythms are embedded in a global alpha rhythm. Global models are outlined in which cm-scale dynamic behaviors result largely from propagation delays in cortico-cortical axons and cortical background excitation level, controlled by neuromodulators on long time scales. The idealized global models ignore the bottom-up influences of local networks on global fields so as to employ relatively simple mathematics. The resulting models are transparently related to several EEG and steady state visually evoked potentials correlated with cognitive states, including estimates of neocortical coherence structure, traveling waves, and standing waves. The global models suggest that global oscillatory behavior of self-sustained (limit-cycle) modes lower than about 20 Hz may easily occur in neocortical/white matter systems provided: Background cortical excitability is sufficiently high; the strength of long cortico-cortical axon systems is sufficiently high; and the bottom-up influence of local networks on the global dynamic field is sufficiently weak. The global models provide "entry points" to more detailed studies of global top-down influences, including binding of weakly connected networks, modulation of gamma oscillations by theta or alpha rhythms, and the effects of white matter deficits. PMID:24505628

Increasing Susceptibility of the Global Network of Food Trade to Climate Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puma, M. J.; Bose, S.; Chon, S.; Cook, B.

2013-12-01

Globalization of agriculture through trade liberalization has led to a dramatic transformation of the global network of food trade. The many benefits of this globalization include greater and more efficient global agricultural production, reduced variability of regional and global food supplies, and savings in global water resources. However, a potential hidden cost is an increasingly fragile network that is more susceptible to shocks or disruptions. Recent studies suggest that complex systems, like the global food trade network, may have architectural features typically associated with the existence of tipping points and susceptibility to collapse. Here we present evidence that this global agricultural network is increasingly connected, homogeneous, and in a state where network nodes (here countries) can flip between alternate states. We use production and trade data from 1986 to 2009 to identify shifts in national self sufficiency and to quantify changes in connectivity and homogeneity of the wheat, maize and rice trade. We then simulate the possible impacts of climate and crop-disease disruptions, which could potentially trigger a global food crisis through an export-restriction-induced domino effect. Changes in self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) over time for various country groups. The SSR is computed based on production and trade of cereals and starchy roots. (Top row) Time series of SSR for the Group of Eight + Five (G8+5) countries. The '+ Five' refers to the five leading emerging economies in the world. (Bottom row) Boxplots of average SSR over two periods (1986-1990 and 2005-2009) for countries designated as 'Annex I' and 'Least Developed Countries' (LDC) by the United Nations.

Global health diplomacy in Iraq: international relations outcomes of multilateral tuberculosis programmes.

PubMed

Kevany, Sebastian; Jaf, Payman; Workneh, Nibretie Gobezie; Abu Dalod, Mohammad; Tabena, Mohammed; Rashid, Sara; Al Hilfi, Thamer Kadum Yousif

2014-01-01

International development programmes, including global health interventions, have the capacity to make important implicit and explicit benefits to diplomatic and international relations outcomes. Conversely, in the absence of awareness of these implications, such programmes may generate associated threats. Due to heightened international tensions in conflict and post-conflict settings, greater attention to diplomatic outcomes may therefore be necessary. We examine related 'collateral' effects of Global Fund-supported tuberculosis programmes in Iraq. During site visits to Iraq conducted during 2012 and 2013 on behalf of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, on-site service delivery evaluations, unstructured interviews with clinical and operational staff, and programme documentary review of Global Fund-supported tuberculosis treatment and care programmes were conducted. During this process, a range of possible external or collateral international relations and diplomatic effects of global health programmes were assessed according to predetermined criteria. A range of positive diplomatic and international relations effects of Global Fund-supported programmes were observed in the Iraq setting. These included (1) geo-strategic accessibility and coverage; (2) provisions for programme sustainability and alignment; (3) contributions to nation-building and peace-keeping initiatives; (4) consistent observation of social, cultural and religious norms in intervention selection; and (5) selection of the most effective and cost-effective tuberculosis treatment and care interventions. Investments in global health programmes have valuable diplomatic, as well as health-related, outcomes, associated with their potential to prevent, mitigate or reverse international tension and hostility in conflict and post-conflict settings, provided that they adhere to appropriate criteria. The associated international presence in such regions may also contribute to peace-keeping efforts. Global health programmes may frequently produce a wider range of 'collateral benefits' that conventional monitoring and evaluation systems should be expanded to assess, in keeping with contemporary efforts to leverage development programmes from a 'global health diplomacy' perspective.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Luchuan

2015-04-01

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters Luchuan Ren, Jianwei Tian, Mingli Hong Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe, Heibei Province, 065201, P.R. China It is obvious that the uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights in offshore area are partly from uncertainties of the potential seismic tsunami source parameters. A global sensitivity analysis method on the maximum tsunami wave heights to the potential seismic source parameters is put forward in this paper. The tsunami wave heights are calculated by COMCOT ( the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model), on the assumption that an earthquake with magnitude MW8.0 occurred at the northern fault segment along the Manila Trench and triggered a tsunami in the South China Sea. We select the simulated results of maximum tsunami wave heights at specific sites in offshore area to verify the validity of the method proposed in this paper. For ranking importance order of the uncertainties of potential seismic source parameters (the earthquake's magnitude, the focal depth, the strike angle, dip angle and slip angle etc..) in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights, we chose Morris method to analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to the aforementioned parameters, and give several qualitative descriptions of nonlinear or linear effects of them on the maximum tsunami wave heights. We quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to these parameters and the interaction effects among these parameters on the maximum tsunami wave heights by means of the extended FAST method afterward. The results shows that the maximum tsunami wave heights are very sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, followed successively by the epicenter location, the strike angle and dip angle, the interactions effect between the sensitive parameters are very obvious at specific site in offshore area, and there exist differences in importance order in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights for same group parameters at different specific sites in offshore area. These results are helpful to deeply understand the relationship between the tsunami wave heights and the seismic tsunami source parameters. Keywords: Global sensitivity analysis; Tsunami wave height; Potential seismic tsunami source parameter; Morris method; Extended FAST method

Costs and global impacts of black carbon abatement strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje K.; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Myhre, Gunnar; Skeie, Ragnhild B.

2009-09-01

Abatement of particulate matter has traditionally been driven by health concerns rather than its role in global warming. Here we assess future abatement strategies in terms of how much they reduce the climate impact of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from contained combustion. We develop global scenarios which take into account regional differences in climate impact, costs of abatement and ability to pay, as well as both the direct and indirect (snow-albedo) climate impact of BC and OC. To represent the climate impact, we estimate consistent region-specific values of direct and indirect global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP). The indirect GWP has been estimated using a physical approach and includes the effect of change in albedo from BC deposited on snow. The indirect GWP is highest in the Middle East followed by Russia, Europe and North America, while the total GWP is highest in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. We conclude that prioritizing emission reductions in Asia represents the most cost-efficient global abatement strategy for BC because Asia is (1) responsible for a large share of total emissions, (2) has lower abatement costs compared to Europe and North America and (3) has large health cobenefits from reduced PM10 emissions.

Climate change impacts on global rainfed agricultural land availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

2010-12-01

Global rainfed agricultural land availability can be subject to significant changes in both magnitude and spatial distribution due to climate change. We assess the possible changes using current and projected climate data from thirteen general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, together with global databases on land, including soil properties and slope. Two ensemble methods with the set of GCMs, Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), are employed to abate uncertainty involved in global GCM projections for assembling regional climate. Fuzzy logic, which handles land classification in an approximate yet efficient way, is adopted to estimate the land suitability through empirically determined membership functions and fuzzy rules chosen through a learning process based on remote sensed crop land products. Land suitability under five scenarios, which include the present-climate baseline scenario and four projected scenarios, A1B-SAM, A1B-RMSEMM, B1-SAM, and B1-RMSEMM, are assessed for both global and seven important agricultural regions in the world, Africa, China, India, Europe (excluding Russia), Russia, South America, and U.S. It is found that countries at the high latitudes of north hemisphere are more likely to benefit from climate change with respect to agricultural land availability; while countries at mid- and low latitudes may suffer different levels of loss of potential arable land. Expansions of the gross potential arable land are likely to occur in regions at the north high latitudes, including Russia, North China and U.S., while land shrinking can be expected in South America, Africa, India and Europe. Although the greatest potential for agricultural expansion lies in Africa and South America, with current cultivated land accounting for 20% and 13% respectively of the net potential arable land, negative effects from climate change may decline the potential. In summary, climate change is likely to alter the global distribution of potential rainfed arable land and further influence agricultural production and related socio-economic aspects around the end of this century. Global suitable rainfed agricultural land (can be used for regular crops) changes between A1B-SAM scenario based on 2070-2099 averaged climate data and baseline scenario simulated using 1961-1990 averaged climate data

Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change

PubMed Central

Stordalen, Gunhild A.; Rocklöv, Joacim; Nilsson, Maria; Byass, Peter

2013-01-01

Background Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies. Discussion The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised. Conclusion More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them. PMID:23653920

Predicting the effect of fire on large-scale vegetation patterns in North America.

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; David L. Peterson; Ernesto. Alvarado

1996-01-01

Changes in fire regimes are expected across North America in response to anticipated global climatic changes. Potential changes in large-scale vegetation patterns are predicted as a result of altered fire frequencies. A new vegetation classification was developed by condensing Kuchler potential natural vegetation types into aggregated types that are relatively...

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

2002-01-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth's biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios...

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

A toy model for estimating N2O emissions from natural soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, Inez

1992-01-01

A model of N2O emissions from natural soils, whose ultimate objective is to evaluate what contribution natural ecosystems make to the global N2O budget and how the contribution would change with global change, is presented. Topics covered include carbon and nitrogen available in the soil, delivery of nitrifiable N, soil water and oxygen status, soil water budget model, effects of drainage, nitrification and denitrification potentials, soil fertility, N2O production, and a model evaluation. A major implication of the toy model is that the tropics account for more than 80 percent of global emission.

Regional recovery of the disturbing gravitational potential by inverting satellite gravitational gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitoňák, Martin; Šprlák, Michal; Hamáčková, Eliška; Novák, Pavel

2016-04-01

Regional recovery of the disturbing gravitational potential in the area of Central Europe from satellite gravitational gradients data is discussed in this contribution. The disturbing gravitational potential is obtained by inverting surface integral formulas which transform the disturbing gravitational potential onto disturbing gravitational gradients in the spherical local north-oriented frame. Two numerical approaches that solve the inverse problem are considered. In the first approach, the integral formulas are rigorously decomposed into two parts, that is, the effects of the gradient data within near and distant zones. While the effect of the near zone data is sought as an inverse problem, the effect of the distant zone data is synthesized from the global gravitational model GGM05S using spectral weights given by truncation error coefficients up to the degree 150. In the second approach, a reference gravitational field up to the degree 180 is applied to reduce and smooth measured gravitational gradients. In both cases we recovered the disturbing gravitational potential from each of the four well-measured gravitational gradients of the GOCE satellite separately as well as from their combination. Obtained results are compared with the EGM2008, DIR-r2, TIM-r2 and SPW-r2 global gravitational models. The best fit was achieved for EGM2008 and the second approach combining all four well-measured gravitational gradients with rms of 1.231 m2 s-2.

Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.

PubMed

Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F

2013-08-20

Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.

Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species.

PubMed

Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-11-01

We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuss, Sabine; Lamb, William F.; Callaghan, Max W.; Hilaire, Jérôme; Creutzig, Felix; Amann, Thorben; Beringer, Tim; de Oliveira Garcia, Wagner; Hartmann, Jens; Khanna, Tarun; Luderer, Gunnar; Nemet, Gregory F.; Rogelj, Joeri; Smith, Pete; Vicente, José Luis Vicente; Wilcox, Jennifer; del Mar Zamora Dominguez, Maria; Minx, Jan C.

2018-06-01

The most recent IPCC assessment has shown an important role for negative emissions technologies (NETs) in limiting global warming to 2 °C cost-effectively. However, a bottom-up, systematic, reproducible, and transparent literature assessment of the different options to remove CO2 from the atmosphere is currently missing. In part 1 of this three-part review on NETs, we assemble a comprehensive set of the relevant literature so far published, focusing on seven technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration. In this part, part 2 of the review, we present estimates of costs, potentials, and side-effects for these technologies, and qualify them with the authors’ assessment. Part 3 reviews the innovation and scaling challenges that must be addressed to realise NETs deployment as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Based on a systematic review of the literature, our best estimates for sustainable global NET potentials in 2050 are 0.5–3.6 GtCO2 yr‑1 for afforestation and reforestation, 0.5–5 GtCO2 yr‑1 for BECCS, 0.5–2 GtCO2 yr‑1 for biochar, 2–4 GtCO2 yr‑1 for enhanced weathering, 0.5–5 GtCO2 yr‑1 for DACCS, and up to 5 GtCO2 yr‑1 for soil carbon sequestration. Costs vary widely across the technologies, as do their permanency and cumulative potentials beyond 2050. It is unlikely that a single NET will be able to sustainably meet the rates of carbon uptake described in integrated assessment pathways consistent with 1.5 °C of global warming.

Combining XCO2 Measurements Derived from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT for Potentially Generating Global CO2 Maps with High Spatiotemporal Resolution

PubMed Central

Wang, Tianxing; Shi, Jiancheng; Jing, Yingying; Zhao, Tianjie; Ji, Dabin; Xiong, Chuan

2014-01-01

Global warming induced by atmospheric CO2 has attracted increasing attention of researchers all over the world. Although space-based technology provides the ability to map atmospheric CO2 globally, the number of valid CO2 measurements is generally limited for certain instruments owing to the presence of clouds, which in turn constrain the studies of global CO2 sources and sinks. Thus, it is a potentially promising work to combine the currently available CO2 measurements. In this study, a strategy for fusing SCIAMACHY and GOSAT CO2 measurements is proposed by fully considering the CO2 global bias, averaging kernel, and spatiotemporal variations as well as the CO2 retrieval errors. Based on this method, a global CO2 map with certain UTC time can also be generated by employing the pattern of the CO2 daily cycle reflected by Carbon Tracker (CT) data. The results reveal that relative to GOSAT, the global spatial coverage of the combined CO2 map increased by 41.3% and 47.7% on a daily and monthly scale, respectively, and even higher when compared with that relative to SCIAMACHY. The findings in this paper prove the effectiveness of the combination method in supporting the generation of global full-coverage XCO2 maps with higher temporal and spatial sampling by jointly using these two space-based XCO2 datasets. PMID:25119468

Global Health and Foreign Policy

PubMed Central

Feldbaum, Harley; Lee, Kelley; Michaud, Joshua

2010-01-01

Health has long been intertwined with the foreign policies of states. In recent years, however, global health issues have risen to the highest levels of international politics and have become accepted as legitimate issues in foreign policy. This elevated political priority is in many ways a welcome development for proponents of global health, and it has resulted in increased funding for and attention to select global health issues. However, there has been less examination of the tensions that characterize the relationship between global health and foreign policy and of the potential effects of linking global health efforts with the foreign-policy interests of states. In this paper, the authors review the relationship between global health and foreign policy by examining the roles of health across 4 major components of foreign policy: aid, trade, diplomacy, and national security. For each of these aspects of foreign policy, the authors review current and historical issues and discuss how foreign-policy interests have aided or impeded global health efforts. The increasing relevance of global health to foreign policy holds both opportunities and dangers for global efforts to improve health. PMID:20423936

Global health and foreign policy.

PubMed

Feldbaum, Harley; Lee, Kelley; Michaud, Joshua

2010-01-01

Health has long been intertwined with the foreign policies of states. In recent years, however, global health issues have risen to the highest levels of international politics and have become accepted as legitimate issues in foreign policy. This elevated political priority is in many ways a welcome development for proponents of global health, and it has resulted in increased funding for and attention to select global health issues. However, there has been less examination of the tensions that characterize the relationship between global health and foreign policy and of the potential effects of linking global health efforts with the foreign-policy interests of states. In this paper, the authors review the relationship between global health and foreign policy by examining the roles of health across 4 major components of foreign policy: aid, trade, diplomacy, and national security. For each of these aspects of foreign policy, the authors review current and historical issues and discuss how foreign-policy interests have aided or impeded global health efforts. The increasing relevance of global health to foreign policy holds both opportunities and dangers for global efforts to improve health.

Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and bioaccumulation: the role of multimedia models.

PubMed

Gouin, Todd; Armitage, James M; Cousins, Ian T; Muir, Derek C G; Ng, Carla A; Reid, Liisa; Tao, Shu

2013-01-01

Multimedia environmental fate models are valuable tools for investigating potential changes associated with global climate change, particularly because thermodynamic forcing on partitioning behavior as well as diffusive and nondiffusive exchange processes are implicitly considered. Similarly, food-web bioaccumulation models are capable of integrating the net effect of changes associated with factors such as temperature, growth rates, feeding preferences, and partitioning behavior on bioaccumulation potential. For the climate change scenarios considered in the present study, such tools indicate that alterations to exposure concentrations are typically within a factor of 2 of the baseline output. Based on an appreciation for the uncertainty in model parameters and baseline output, the authors recommend caution when interpreting or speculating on the relative importance of global climate change with respect to how changes caused by it will influence chemical fate and bioavailability. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Brane-world motion in compact dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, Brian; Levin, Janna; Parikh, Maulik

2011-08-01

The topology of extra dimensions can break global Lorentz invariance, singling out a globally preferred frame even in flat spacetime. Through experiments that probe global topology, an observer can determine her state of motion with respect to the preferred frame. This scenario is realized if we live on a brane universe moving through a flat space with compact extra dimensions. We identify three experimental effects due to the motion of our universe that one could potentially detect using gravitational probes. One of these relates to the peculiar properties of the twin paradox in multiply-connected spacetimes. Another relies on the fact that the Kaluza-Klein modes of any bulk field are sensitive to boundary conditions. A third concerns the modification to the Newtonian potential on a moving brane. Remarkably, we find that even small extra dimensions are detectable by brane observers if the brane is moving sufficiently fast. Communicated by P R L V Moniz

Multi-year effects of feral sorghum spp under ambient and global change conditions in sunlit mesocosms

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Biofuel crops, proposed as a means to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, raise concerns regarding ecological risks of their escape from cultivation. We report here second year results of our study on potential effects of feral biofuel crops on nati...

Life-cycle analysis of dryland greenhouse gases affected by cropping sequence and nitrogen fertilization

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little information is available about management practices effect on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) under dryland cropping systems. We evaluated the effects of cropping sequences (conventional till malt barley-fallow [CTB-F], no-till malt barley-pea [NTB-P], a...

MORPHOGENESIS OF DOUGLAS-FIR BUDS IN ALTERED AT ELEVATED TEMPERATURE BUT NOT AT ELEVATED CO21

EPA Science Inventory

Global climatic change as expressed by increased CO2 and temperature has the potential for dramatic effects on trees. To determine what its effects may be on Pacific Northwest forests, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) seedlings were grown in sun-lit controlled environment cham...

Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Sudden Changes of Track and Intensity in the Western Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

North Atlantic . (Published in 2008) Our work on the effect of internally generated inner-core asymmetries on tropical cyclone potential intensity has...of the atmospheric circulation in TC basins to the global warming is more critical than increasing SST to understanding the impacts of global warming...Japan and its adjacent seas is studied with WRF model. The results suggest that the northward moisture transport through the outer cyclonic circulation

A meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration, net nitrogen mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming

Treesearch

L.E. Rustad; J.L. Campbell; G.M. Marion; R.J. Norby; M.J. Mitchell; A.E. Hartley; J.H.C. Cornelissen; J. Gurevitch

2001-01-01

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions is predicted to raise the mean global temperature by 1.0-3.5°C in the next 50-100 years. The direct and indirect effects of this potential increase in temperature on terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem processes are likely to be complex and highly varied in time and space. The Global Change and Terrestrial...

Microbial mediation of biogeochemical cycles revealed by simulation of global changes with soil transplant and cropping

PubMed Central

Zhao, Mengxin; Xue, Kai; Wang, Feng; Liu, Shanshan; Bai, Shijie; Sun, Bo; Zhou, Jizhong; Yang, Yunfeng

2014-01-01

Despite microbes' key roles in driving biogeochemical cycles, the mechanism of microbe-mediated feedbacks to global changes remains elusive. Recently, soil transplant has been successfully established as a proxy to simulate climate changes, as the current trend of global warming coherently causes range shifts toward higher latitudes. Four years after southward soil transplant over large transects in China, we found that microbial functional diversity was increased, in addition to concurrent changes in microbial biomass, soil nutrient content and functional processes involved in the nitrogen cycle. However, soil transplant effects could be overridden by maize cropping, which was attributed to a negative interaction. Strikingly, abundances of nitrogen and carbon cycle genes were increased by these field experiments simulating global change, coinciding with higher soil nitrification potential and carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux. Further investigation revealed strong correlations between carbon cycle genes and CO2 efflux in bare soil but not cropped soil, and between nitrogen cycle genes and nitrification. These findings suggest that changes of soil carbon and nitrogen cycles by soil transplant and cropping were predictable by measuring microbial functional potentials, contributing to a better mechanistic understanding of these soil functional processes and suggesting a potential to incorporate microbial communities in greenhouse gas emission modeling. PMID:24694714

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

As scientists and politicians anxiously eye signs of global greenhouse warming, climatologists are finding the best evidence yet that a massive volcanic eruption can temporarily bring the temperature down a notch or two. Such a cooling could be enough to set the current global warming back more than a decade, confusing any efforts to link it to the greenhouse effect. By effectively eliminating some nonvolcanic climate changes from the record of the past 100 years, researchers have detected drops in global temperature of several tenths of a degree within 1 to 2 years of volcanic eruptions. Apparently, the debris spewedmore » into the stratosphere blocked sunlight and caused the temperature drops. For all their potential social significance, the climate effects of volcanoes have been hard to detect. The problem has been in identifying a volcanic cooling among the nearly continuous climate warmings and coolings of a similar size that fill the record. The paper reviews how this was done.« less

Knowledge about the 'Greenhouse Effect': Have College Students Improved?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeffries, Helen; Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

2001-01-01

The ideas of Year I undergraduate biology students about the consequences, causes, and cures of the 'greenhouse effect' was determined using a closed-form questionnaire, and results were compared with a parallel study undertaken nearly 10 years ago. Many of the students in the present survey were unaware of the potential effect of global warming…

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

Green-house gas mitigation capacity of a small scale rural biogas plant calculations for Bangladesh through a general life cycle assessment.

PubMed

Rahman, Khondokar M; Melville, Lynsey; Fulford, David; Huq, Sm Imamul

2017-10-01

Calculations towards determining the greenhouse gas mitigation capacity of a small-scale biogas plant (3.2 m 3 plant) using cow dung in Bangladesh are presented. A general life cycle assessment was used, evaluating key parameters (biogas, methane, construction materials and feedstock demands) to determine the net environmental impact. The global warming potential saving through the use of biogas as a cooking fuel is reduced from 0.40 kg CO 2 equivalent to 0.064 kg CO 2 equivalent per kilogram of dung. Biomethane used for cooking can contribute towards mitigation of global warming. Prior to utilisation of the global warming potential of methane (from 3.2 m 3 biogas plant), the global warming potential is 13 t of carbon dioxide equivalent. This reduced to 2 t as a result of complete combustion of methane. The global warming potential saving of a bioenergy plant across a 20-year life cycle is 217 t of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 11 t per year. The global warming potential of the resultant digestate is zero and from construction materials is less than 1% of total global warming potential. When the biogas is used as a fuel for cooking, the global warming potential will reduce by 83% compare with the traditional wood biomass cooking system. The total 80 MJ of energy that can be produced from a 3.2 m 3 anaerobic digestion plant would replace 1.9 t of fuel wood or 632 kg of kerosene currently used annually in Bangladesh. The digestate can also be used as a nutrient rich fertiliser substituting more costly inorganic fertilisers, with no global warming potential impact.

Multiple Determinants, Common Vulnerabilities, and Creative Responses: Addressing the AIDS Pandemic in Diverse Populations Globally

PubMed Central

Mayer, Kenneth H.; Pape, Jean William; Wilson, Phill; Diallo, Dazon Dixon; Saavedra, Jorge; Mimiaga, Matthew J.; Koenig, Serena; Farmer, Paul

2012-01-01

The AIDS epidemic has been fueled by global inequities. Ranging from gender inequality and underdevelopment to homophobia impeding health care access for men who have sex with men (MSM), imbalanced resource allocations and social biases have potentiated the epidemic’s spread. However, recognition of culturally specific aspects of each microepidemic has yielded development of community-based organizations, which have resulted in locally effective responses to AIDS. This effective approach to HIV prevention, care and treatment is illustrated through examples of community-based responses in Haiti, the United States, Africa, and other impoverished settings. PMID:22772387

Global mismatch between fishing dependency and larval supply from marine reserves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrello, Marco; Guilhaumon, François; Albouy, Camille; Parravicini, Valeriano; Scholtens, Joeri; Verley, Philippe; Barange, Manuel; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Manel, Stéphanie; Mouillot, David

2017-07-01

Marine reserves are viewed as flagship tools to protect exploited species and to contribute to the effective management of coastal fisheries. Yet, the extent to which marine reserves are globally interconnected and able to effectively seed areas, where fisheries are most critical for food and livelihood security is largely unknown. Using a hydrodynamic model of larval dispersal, we predict that most marine reserves are not interconnected by currents and that their potential benefits to fishing areas are presently limited, since countries with high dependency on coastal fisheries receive very little larval supply from marine reserves. This global mismatch could be reversed, however, by placing new marine reserves in areas sufficiently remote to minimize social and economic costs but sufficiently connected through sea currents to seed the most exploited fisheries and endangered ecosystems.

The global security perspective on the effects of executive cognitive function on complex behavioral screening intervention and HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Kim, Suk-Hee

2010-11-01

The purpose of this quantitative study is to understand the global security perspective on the effects of executive cognitive function (ECF) on Complex Behavioral Screening Intervention and HIV/AIDS. The HIV/AIDS pandemic is as much a social, political, economic, and cultural problem as a biomedical one. HIV/AIDS is associated centrally with the collapse not just of communities and families but potentially of states, with some of the largest public health interventions ever and enormous questions about governance, a huge population of orphans, and deep questions about intergenerational relations and cultural transmission. This study also is to develop a screening instrument that improves quality of life for individuals with executive cognitive impairments and behavior problems in our communities and the global society.

Global electrostatic potential structures of merging flux tubes in TS-U torus plasma merging experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Asuka; Hatano, Hironori; Akimitsu, Moe; Cao, Qinghong; Yamasaki, Kotaro; Tanabe, Hiroshi; Ono, Yasushi; TS-Group Team

2017-10-01

We have been investigating 2D potential profile of global merging tokamaks to solve high-power heating of magnetic reconnection in TS-3 and TS-3U (ST, FRC:R =0.2m, 1985-, 2017-) and TS-4 (ST, FRC:R =0.5m, 2000-), UTST (ST:R =0.45m, 2008-) and MAST (ST:R = 0.9m, 2000-) devices. These experiments made clear that the electrostatic potential well is formed not only in the downstream area of magnetic reconnection but also in the whole common (reconnected) flux area of two merging flux tubes: tokamak plasmas. This fact suggests that the ion acceleration/heating occurs in much wider region than the reconnection downstream. We studied how the potential structure depends on key reconnection parameters:guide toroidal field and plasma collisionality. We found the polarity of the guide toroidal field determines those of potential hills and wells, indicating their formation is affected by the Hall effect. The peak value of the electrostatic potential well decreased with gas pressure increasing, suggesting plasma collisionality suppresses the Hall effect. The relationship between the electrostatic potential structure and anomalous ion heating is being studied as a possible cause for the high-power heating of fast magnetic reconnection. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 15H05750, 15K14279 and 17H04863.

Global surface temperatures and the atmospheric electrical circuit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin

1993-01-01

To monitor future global temperature trends, it would be extremely useful if parameters nonlinearly related to surface temperature could be found, thereby amplifying any warming signal that may exist. Evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations is presented. Since global thunderstorm activity is also well correlated with the earth's ionospheric potential, it appears that variations of ionospheric potential, that can be measured at a single location, may be able to supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The observations presented enable a prediction that a 1 percent increase in global surface temperatures may result in a 20 percent increase in ionospheric potential.

Global optical model potential for A=3 projectiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, D. Y.; Roussel-Chomaz, P.; Savajols, H.; Varner, R. L.; Wolski, R.

2009-02-01

A global optical model potential (GDP08) for He3 projectiles has been obtained by simultaneously fitting the elastic scattering data of He3 from targets of 40⩽AT⩽209 at incident energies of 30⩽Einc⩽217 MeV. Uncertainties and correlation coefficients between the global potential parameters were obtained by using the bootstrap statistical method. GDP08 was found to satisfactorily account for the elastic scattering of H3 as well, which makes it a global optical potential for the A=3 nuclei. Optical model calculations using the GDP08 global potential are compared with the experimental angular distributions of differential cross sections for He3-nucleus and H3-nucleus scattering from different targets of 6⩽AT⩽232 at incident energies of 4⩽Einc⩽450 MeV. The optical potential for the doubly-magic nucleus Ca40, the low-energy correction to the real potential for nuclei with 58≲AT≲120 at Einc<30 MeV, the comparison with double-folding model calculations and the CH89 potential, and the spin-orbit potential parameters are discussed.

The Hartree product and the description of local and global quantities in atomic systems: A study within Kohn-Sham theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garza, Jorge; Nichols, Jeffrey A.; Dixon, David A.

2000-01-15

The Hartree product is analyzed in the context of Kohn-Sham theory. The differential equations that emerge from this theory are solved with the optimized effective potential using the Krieger, Li, and Iafrate approximation, in order to get a local potential as required by the ordinary Kohn-Sham procedure. Because the diagonal terms of the exact exchange energy are included in Hartree theory, it is self-interaction free and the exchange potential has the proper asymptotic behavior. We have examined the impact of this correct asymptotic behavior on local and global properties using this simple model to approximate the exchange energy. Local quantities,more » such as the exchange potential and the average local electrostatic potential are used to examine whether the shell structure in an atom is revealed by this theory. Global quantities, such as the highest occupied orbital energy (related to the ionization potential) and the exchange energy are also calculated. These quantities are contrasted with those obtained from calculations with the local density approximation, the generalized gradient approximation, and the self-interaction correction approach proposed by Perdew and Zunger. We conclude that the main characteristics in an atomic system are preserved with the Hartree theory. In particular, the behavior of the exchange potential obtained in this theory is similar to those obtained within other Kohn-Sham approximations. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics.« less

Climate change and the global malaria recession.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2010-05-20

The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

WHO/UNEP global surveys of PCDDs, PCDFs, PCBs and DDTs in human milk and benefit-risk evaluation of breastfeeding.

PubMed

van den Berg, Martin; Kypke, Karin; Kotz, Alexander; Tritscher, Angelika; Lee, Seoung Yong; Magulova, Katarina; Fiedler, Heidelore; Malisch, Rainer

2017-01-01

Since 1987, the World Health Organization (WHO) carried out global surveys on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in human milk. This study presents a review of the three most recent surveys from 2000 to 2010, including DDT. The objective was to identify global quantitative differences and provide baseline information for 52 countries or provide time-trends for countries with previous data. Individual human milk samples were collected following a WHO-designed procedure and combined to form a national pooled sample. Here, we report global levels for PCDDs, PCDFs, PCBs and the sum of o,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDT, o,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDE, o,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDD (ΣDDTs). A concise risk-benefit evaluation related to human milk contamination with these persistent organic pollutants (POPs) was also done. Large global and regional differences were observed. Levels of PCDDs and PCDFs were highest in India and some European and African countries. PCB levels were highest in East and West Europe. The highest levels of ΣDDTs were found in less industrialized countries. A temporal downward trend for PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs is indicated. A risk-benefit assessment indicates that human milk levels of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs are still significantly above those considered toxicologically safe, while ΣDDTs are below or around those considered safe. With respect to potential adverse health effects, a more dominant role of in utero exposure versus lactational exposure is indicated. If potential adverse effects are balanced against positive health aspects for (breastfed) infants, the advantages of breastfeeding far outweigh the possible disadvantages. Our observations provide a strong argument to plea for further global source-directed measures to reduce human exposure further to dioxin-like compounds.

High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Biemans, Hester; Niessink, Robin

2017-10-01

Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical and economic potential of hydropower at a near-global scale. Using 15"×15" discharge and 3"×3" digital elevation maps, we built virtual hydropower installations at >3.8 million sites across the globe and calculated their potential using cost optimization methods. This way we identified over 60,000 suitable sites, which together represent a remaining global potential of 9.49 PWh yr-1 below US0.50 kWh-1. The largest remaining potential is found in Asia Pacific (39%), South America (25%) and Africa (24%), of which a large part can be produced at low cost (

Potential of global croplands and bioenergy crops for climate change mitigation through deployment for enhanced weathering.

PubMed

Kantola, Ilsa B; Masters, Michael D; Beerling, David J; Long, Stephen P; DeLucia, Evan H

2017-04-01

Conventional row crop agriculture for both food and fuel is a source of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to the atmosphere, and intensifying production on agricultural land increases the potential for soil C loss and soil acidification due to fertilizer use. Enhanced weathering (EW) in agricultural soils-applying crushed silicate rock as a soil amendment-is a method for combating global climate change while increasing nutrient availability to plants. EW uses land that is already producing food and fuel to sequester carbon (C), and reduces N 2 O loss through pH buffering. As biofuel use increases, EW in bioenergy crops offers the opportunity to sequester CO 2 while reducing fossil fuel combustion. Uncertainties remain in the long-term effects and global implications of large-scale efforts to directly manipulate Earth's atmospheric CO 2 composition, but EW in agricultural lands is an opportunity to employ these soils to sequester atmospheric C while benefitting crop production and the global climate. © 2017 The Author(s).

Future global SLR network evolution and its impact on the terrestrial reference frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehm, Alexander; Bloßfeld, Mathis; Pavlis, Erricos C.; Seitz, Florian

2018-06-01

Satellite laser ranging (SLR) is an important technique that contributes to the determination of terrestrial geodetic reference frames, especially to the realization of the origin and the scale of global networks. One of the major limiting factors of SLR-derived reference frame realizations is the datum accuracy which significantly suffers from the current global SLR station distribution. In this paper, the impact of a potential future development of the SLR network on the estimated datum parameters is investigated. The current status of the SLR network is compared to a simulated potential future network featuring additional stations improving the global network geometry. In addition, possible technical advancements resulting in a higher amount of observations are taken into account as well. As a result, we find that the network improvement causes a decrease in the scatter of the network translation parameters of up to 24%, and up to 20% for the scale, whereas the technological improvement causes a reduction in the scatter of up to 27% for the translations and up to 49% for the scale. The Earth orientation parameters benefit by up to 15% from both effects.

Land grabbing: a preliminary quantification of economic impacts on rural livelihoods.

PubMed

Davis, Kyle F; D'Odorico, Paolo; Rulli, Maria Cristina

2014-01-01

Global demands on agricultural land are increasing due to population growth, dietary changes and the use of biofuels. Their effect on food security is to reduce humans' ability to cope with the uncertainties of global climate change. In light of the 2008 food crisis, to secure reliable future access to sufficient agricultural land, many nations and corporations have begun purchasing large tracts of land in the global South, a phenomenon deemed "land grabbing" by popular media. Because land investors frequently export crops without providing adequate employment, this represents an effective income loss for local communities. We study 28 countries targeted by large-scale land acquisitions [comprising 87 % of reported cases and 27 million hectares (ha)] and estimate the effects of such investments on local communities' incomes. We find that this phenomenon can potentially affect the incomes of ~12 million people globally with implications for food security, poverty levels and urbanization. While it is important to note that our study incorporates a number of assumptions and limitations, it provides a much needed initial quantification of the economic impacts of large-scale land acquisitions on rural livelihoods.

Effects of geoengineering on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2011-12-01

The potential of "solar radiation management" (SRM) to reduce future climate change and associated risks has been receiving significant attention in scientific and policy circles. SRM schemes aim to reduce global warming despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by diminishing the amount of solar insolation absorbed by the Earth, for example, by injecting scattering aerosols into the atmosphere. Climate models predict that SRM could fully compensate warming at the global mean in a high-CO2 world. While reduction of global warming may offset a part of the predicted negative effects of future climate change on crop yields, SRM schemes are expected to alter regional climate and to have substantial effects on climate variables other than temperature, such as precipitation. It has therefore been warned that, overall, SRM may pose a risk to food security. Assessments of benefits and risks of geoengineering are imperative, yet such assessments are only beginning to emerge; in particular, effects on global food security have not previously been assessed. Here, for the first time, we combine climate model simulations with models of crop yield responses to climate to assess large-scale changes in yields and food production under SRM. In most crop-growing regions, we find that yield losses caused by climate changes are substantially reduced under SRM as compared with a non-geoengineered doubling of atmospheric CO2. Substantial yield losses with SRM are only found for rice in high latitudes, where the limits of low temperatures are no longer alleviated. At the same time, the beneficial effect of CO2-fertilization on plant productivity remains active. Overall therefore, SRM in our models causes global crop yields to increase. We estimate the direct effects of climate and CO2 changes on crop production, and do not quantify effects of market dynamics and management changes. We note, however, that an SRM deployment would be unlikely to maintain the economic status quo, as market shares of agricultural output may change with the different spatial pattern of climate change. More importantly, geoengineering by SRM does not address a range of other detrimental consequences of climate change, such as ocean acidification, which could also affect food security via effects on marine food webs. Finally, SRM poses substantial anticipated and unanticipated risks by interfering with complex, not fully understood systems. Therefore, despite potential positive effects of SRM on crop yields, the most certain way to reduce climate risks to global food security is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Molecular mobility in amorphous state: Implications on physical stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Sunny Piyush

Amorphous pharmaceuticals are desirable in drug development due to their advantageous biopharmaceutical properties of higher apparent aqueous solubility and dissolution rate. The main obstacle in their widespread use, however, is their higher physicochemical instability than their crystalline counterparts. The goal of the present research project was to investigate correlations between the molecular mobility and physical stability in model amorphous compounds. The objective was to identify the specific mobility which is responsible for the physical instability in each case. This will potentially enable the development of effective strategies for the stabilization of amorphous pharmaceuticals. Moreover, these correlations can be used to develop predictive models for the stability at the pharmaceutically relevant storage conditions. Subtraction of dc conductivity enabled the comprehensive characterization of molecular mobility in amorphous trehalose. This was followed by investigation of correlation between crystallization behavior and different relaxations. Global mobility was found to be strongly coupled to both crystallization onset time and rate. Different preparation methods imparted different mobility states to amorphous trehalose which was postulated to be the reason for the significant physical stability differences. Predictive models were developed and a good agreement was found between the predicted and the experimental crystallization onset times at temperatures around and below the glass transition temperature (Tg). Effect of annealing was investigated on water sorption, enthalpic recovery and dielectric relaxation times in amorphous trehalose. Global mobility was found to be linearly correlated to the water sorption potential which enabled the development of predictive models. Global mobility was also found to be strongly correlated to physical instability in amorphous itraconazole. Effect of polymer (PVP and HPMCAS) on itraconazole mobility and stability was also evaluated. Global mobility was found to be correlated to stability in both the solid dispersions. HPMCAS was found to be a better stabilizer than PVP due to its pronounced effect on global mobility.

Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

2017-12-01

Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

Use of micro unmanned aerial vehicles for roadside condition assessment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

Micro unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) that are equipped with digital imaging systems and global : positioning systems provide a potential opportunity for improving the effectiveness and safety of roadside : condition and inventory surveys. This stud...

Harvest residue removal and soil compaction impact forest productivity and recovery: Potential implications for bioenergy harvests

Treesearch

Miranda T. Curzon; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of management on forest structure and function is increasingly important in light of projected increases in both natural and anthropogenic disturbance severity and frequency with global environmental change. We examined potential impacts of the procurement of forest-derived bioenergy, a change in land use that has been suggested as a climate...

Statins in Asthma: Potential Beneficial Effects and Limitations

PubMed Central

Bhattacharjee, Dipanjan

2015-01-01

Asthma's sustenance as a global pandemic, across centuries, can be attributed to the lack of an understanding of its workings and the inability of the existing treatment modalities to provide a long lasting cure without major adverse effects. The discovery of statins boosted by a better comprehension of the pathophysiology of asthma in the past few decades has opened up a potentially alternative line of treatment that promises to be a big boon for the asthmatics globally. However, the initial excellent results from the preclinical and animal studies have not borne the results in clinical trials that the scientific world was hoping for. In light of this, this review analyzes the ways by which statins could benefit in asthma via their pleiotropic anti-inflammatory properties and explain some of the queries raised in the previous studies and provide recommendations for future studies in this field. PMID:26618001

Chapter 3. Responses of Freshwater Fish to Temperature ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Scientists at the NHEERL, and its predecessor—the Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research—initiated research in 1988 anticipating the Global Change Research Act. The purpose of this document is to summarize ecological research conducted by NHEERL scientists under the EPA’s contribution to the USGCRP from the onset of research through approximately 2002. The intent is to provide that information as reference material for scientists investigating the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems Scientists at the NHEERL, and its predecessor—the Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research—initiated research in 1988 anticipating the Global Change Research Act. The purpose of this document is to summarize ecological research conducted by NHEERL scientists under the EPA’s contribution to the USGCRP from the onset of research through approximately 2002. The intent is to provide that information as reference material for scientists investigating the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems

Community transformation through culturally competent nursing leadership: application of theory of culture care diversity and universality and tri-dimensional leader effectiveness model.

PubMed

Shapiro, Mina L; Miller, June; White, Kathleen

2006-04-01

Transcultural knowledge and competency have become a critical need for nurses to accommodate the global trends in cultural diversity and health care disparities. Today, nurses are increasingly taking on leadership roles in community settings. This article addresses the application of Leininger's culture care theory with the sunrise model and Hersey and Blanchard's tri-dimensional leader effectiveness model as potential collaborating theories for capacity building and community transformation from a global, transcultural nursing perspective. The two theories, used in collaboration, view the provision of competent leadership as the delivery of effective, culturally congruent nursing care in promoting health and health equity at the community level.

LCA-based optimization of wood utilization under special consideration of a cascading use of wood.

PubMed

Höglmeier, Karin; Steubing, Bernhard; Weber-Blaschke, Gabriele; Richter, Klaus

2015-04-01

Cascading, the use of the same unit of a resource in multiple successional applications, is considered as a viable means to improve the efficiency of resource utilization and to decrease environmental impacts. Wood, as a regrowing but nevertheless limited and increasingly in demand resource, can be used in cascades, thereby increasing the potential efficiency per unit of wood. This study aims to assess the influence of cascading wood utilization on optimizing the overall environmental impact of wood utilization. By combining a material flow model of existing wood applications - both for materials provision and energy production - with an algebraic optimization tool, the effects of the use of wood in cascades can be modelled and quantified based on life cycle impact assessment results for all production processes. To identify the most efficient wood allocation, the effects of a potential substitution of non-wood products were taken into account in a part of the model runs. The considered environmental indicators were global warming potential, particulate matter formation, land occupation and an aggregated single score indicator. We found that optimizing either the overall global warming potential or the value of the single score indicator of the system leads to a simultaneous relative decrease of all other considered environmental impacts. The relative differences between the impacts of the model run with and without the possibility of a cascading use of wood were 7% for global warming potential and the single score indicator, despite cascading only influencing a small part of the overall system, namely wood panel production. Cascading led to savings of up to 14% of the annual primary wood supply of the study area. We conclude that cascading can improve the overall performance of a wood utilization system. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global health diplomacy, 'smart power', and the new world order.

PubMed

Kevany, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Both the theory and practice of foreign policy and diplomacy, including systems of hard and soft power, are undergoing paradigm shifts, with an increasing number of innovative actors and strategies contributing to international relations outcomes in the 'New World Order'. Concurrently, global health programmes continue to ascend the political spectrum in scale, scope and influence. This concatenation of circumstances has demanded a re-examination of the existing and potential effectiveness of global health programmes in the 'smart power' context, based on adherence to a range of design, implementation and assessment criteria, which may simultaneously optimise their humanitarian, foreign policy and diplomatic effectiveness. A synthesis of contemporary characteristics of 'global health diplomacy' and 'global health as foreign policy', grouped by common themes and generated in the context of related field experiences, are presented in the form of 'Top Ten' criteria lists for optimising both diplomatic and foreign policy effectiveness of global health programmes, and criteria are presented in concert with an examination of implications for programme design and delivery. Key criteria for global health programmes that are sensitised to both diplomatic and foreign policy goals include visibility, sustainability, geostrategic considerations, accountability, effectiveness and alignment with broader policy objectives. Though diplomacy is a component of foreign policy, criteria for 'diplomatically-sensitised' versus 'foreign policy-sensitised' global health programmes were not always consistent, and were occasionally in conflict, with each other. The desirability of making diplomatic and foreign policy criteria explicit, rather than implicit, in the context of global health programme design, delivery and evaluation are reflected in the identified implications for (1) international security, (2) programme evaluation, (3) funding and resource allocation decisions, (4) approval systems and (5) training. On this basis, global health programmes are shown to provide a valuable, yet underutilised, tool for diplomacy and foreign policy purposes, including their role in the pursuit of benign international influence. A corresponding alignment of resources between 'hard' and 'smart' power options is encouraged.

Communicating the Science of Global Warming — the Role of Astronomers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Jeffrey

2018-06-01

Global Warming is one of the most important and issues of our times, yet it is widely misunderstood among the general public (and politicians!). The American Astronomical Society has already joined many other scientific organizations in advocating for action on global warming (by supporting the AGU statement on global warming), but we as astronomers can do much more. The high public profile of astronomy gives us a unique platform — and credibility as scientists — for doing our part to educate the public about the underlying science of global warming. And while astronomers are not climate scientists, we use the same basic physics, and many aspects of global warming science come directly from astronomy, including the ways in which we measure the heat-absorbing potential of carbon dioxide and the hard evidence of greenhouse warming provided by studies of Venus. In this session, I will briefly introduce a few methods for communicating about global warming that I believe you will find effective in your own education efforts.

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.;

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

2016-12-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Effects of oral exposure to bisphenol A on gene expression and global genomic DNA methylation in the prostate, female mammary gland, and uterus of NCTR Sprague-Dawley rats

PubMed Central

Camacho, Luísa; Basavarajappa, Mallikarjuna S.; Chang, Ching-Wei; Han, Tao; Kobets, Tetyana; Koturbash, Igor; Surratt, Gordon; Lewis, Sherry M.; Vanlandingham, Michelle M.; Fuscoe, James C.; da Costa, Gonçalo Gamboa; Pogribny, Igor P.; Delclos, K. Barry

2015-01-01

Bisphenol A (BPA), an industrial chemical used in the manufacture of polycarbonate and epoxy resins, binds to the nuclear estrogen receptor with an affinity 4–5 orders of magnitude lower than that of estradiol. We reported previously that “high BPA” (100,000 and 300,000 μg/kg body weight (bw)/day), but not “low BPA” [2.5–2700 μg/kg bw/day], induced clear adverse effects in NCTR Sprague-Dawley rats gavaged daily from gestation day 6 through postnatal day 90. The “high BPA” effects partially overlapped those of ethinyl estradiol (EE2, 0.5 and 5.0 μg/kg bw/day). To evaluate further the potential of “low BPA” to induce biological effects, here we assessed the global genomic DNA methylation and gene expression in the prostate and female mammary glands, tissues identified previously as potential targets of BPA, and uterus, a sensitive estrogen-responsive tissue. Both doses of EE2 modulated gene expression, including of known estrogen-responsive genes, and PND 4 global gene expression data showed a partial overlap of the “high BPA” effects with those of EE2. The “low BPA” doses modulated the expression of several genes; however, the absence of a dose response reduces the likelihood that these changes were causally linked to the treatment. These results are consistent with the toxicity outcomes. PMID:25862956

Global change and mercury

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krabbenhoft, David P.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

2013-01-01

More than 140 nations recently agreed to a legally binding treaty on reductions in human uses and releases of mercury that will be signed in October of this year. This follows the 2011 rule in the United States that for the first time regulates mercury emissions from electricity-generating utilities. Several decades of scientific research preceded these important regulations. However, the impacts of global change on environmental mercury concentrations and human exposures remain a major uncertainty affecting the potential effectiveness of regulatory activities.

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales. PMID:23555771

Relative Age Effects in Women's Rugby Union from Developmental Leagues to World Cup Tournaments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lemez, Srdjan; MacMahon, Clare; Weir, Patricia

2016-01-01

Annual age cohort groupings promote relative age effects (RAEs), which often, inadvertently, create participation and attainment biases between relatively older and younger players within the same age cohort. In a globally evolving sport, women's rugby team selection practices may potentially bypass qualified players as a result of maturational…

Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1989, volume 2. Appendix: AFEAS Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

The results are presented of the Alternative Fluorocarbon Environmental Acceptability Study (AFEAS), which was organized to evaluate the potential effects on the environment of alternate compounds targeted to replace fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). All relevant current scientific information to determine the environmental acceptability of the alternative fluorocarbons. Special emphasis was placed on: the potential of the compounds to affect stratospheric ozone; their potential to affect tropospheric ozone; their potential to contribute to model calculated global warming; the atmospheric degradation mechanisms of the compounds, in order to identify their products; and the potential environmental effects of the decomposition products. The alternative compounds to be studied were hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with one or two carbon atoms and one or more each of fluorine and hydrogen.

Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas

Treesearch

Bachisio Arca; Grazia Pellizzaro; Pierpaolo Duce; Michele Salis; Valentina Bacciu; Donatella Spano; Alan Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

Fire is one of the most significant threats for the Mediterranean forested areas. Global change may increase the wildland fire risk due to the combined effect of air temperature and humidity on fuel status, and the effect of wind speed on fire behaviour. This paper investigated the potential effect of the climate changes predicted for the Mediterranean basin by a...

The effects of household management practices on the global warming potential of urban lawns.

PubMed

Gu, Chuanhui; Crane, John; Hornberger, George; Carrico, Amanda

2015-03-15

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget for urban turfgrasses. A biogeochemical model DNDC successfully captured the magnitudes and patterns of N2O emissions observed at an urban turfgrass system at the Richland Creek Watershed in Nashville, TN. The model was then used to study the long-term (i.e. 75 years) impacts of lawn management practice (LMP) on soil organic carbon sequestration rate (dSOC), soil N2O emissions, and net Global Warming Potentials (net GWPs). The model simulated N2O emissions and net GWP from the three management intensity levels over 75 years ranged from 0.75 to 3.57 kg N ha(-1)yr(-1) and 697 to 2443 kg CO2-eq ha(-1)yr(-1), respectively, which suggested that turfgrasses act as a net carbon emitter. Reduction of fertilization is most effective to mitigate the global warming potentials of turfgrasses. Compared to the baseline scenario, halving fertilization rate and clipping recycle as an alternative to synthetic fertilizer can reduce net GWPs by 17% and 12%, respectively. In addition, reducing irrigation and mowing are also effective in lowering net GWPs. The minimum-maintenance LMP without irrigation and fertilization can reduce annual N2O emissions and net GWPs by approximately 53% and 70%, respectively, with the price of gradual depletion of soil organic carbon, when compared to the intensive-maintenance LMP. A lawn age-dependent best management practice is recommended: a high dose fertilizer input at the initial stage of lawn establishment to enhance SOC sequestration, followed by decreasing fertilization rate when the lawn ages to minimize N2O emissions. A minimum-maintained LMP with clipping recycling, and minimum irrigation and mowing, is recommended to mitigate global warming effects from urban turfgrass systems. Among all practices, clipping recycle may be a relatively malleable behavior and, therefore, a good target for interventions seeking to reduce the environmental impacts of lawn management through public education. Our results suggest that a long-term or a chronosequence study of turfgrasses with varying ages is warranted to capture the complete dynamics of contribution of turfgrasses to global warming. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of Various Environments Factors and Adaptive Management Strategies on Food Crops in the 21st Century Based on a Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A. K.; Lin, T. S.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2017-12-01

Environmental factors - characterized by increasing levels of CO2, and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns - present potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of environmental factors' effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected trends of these factors and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to adaptive management practices (e.g. change in planting time, irrigation and N fertilization etc.) and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate the response of crop production to changes in environmental factors and management strategies. In this study we apply a process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of various environmental factors and management strategies on the production of row crops (corn, soybean and wheat) at regional and global scales. Results are compared to corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005), and projected atmospheric forcing data under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 (2006-2100) from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different climate change projections on potential productivity of food crops at a global scale. For each set of atmospheric forcing data, production of each crop is simulated with and without inclusion of adaptive management practices (e.g. application of irrigation, N fertilization, change in planting time and crop cultivars etc.) to assess the effect of adaptation on projected crop production over the 21st century. In detail, three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do differences in model mechanisms in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices (irrigation and N fertilizer) over the 21st century. The major outcomes of this study will help to understand the uncertainties in potential productivity of food crops under different environmental conditions and management practices.

Global DNA methylation loss associated with mercury contamination and aging in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Nilsen, Frances M; Parrott, Benjamin B; Bowden, John A; Kassim, Brittany L; Somerville, Stephen E; Bryan, Teresa A; Bryan, Colleen E; Lange, Ted R; Delaney, J Patrick; Brunell, Arnold M; Long, Stephen E; Guillette, Louis J

2016-03-01

Mercury is a widespread environmental contaminant with exposures eliciting a well-documented catalog of adverse effects. Yet, knowledge regarding the underlying mechanisms by which mercury exposures are translated into biological effects remains incomplete. DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification that is sensitive to environmental cues, and alterations in DNA methylation at the global level are associated with a variety of diseases. Using a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry-based (LC-MS/MS) approach, global DNA methylation levels were measured in red blood cells of 144 wild American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) from 6 sites with variable levels of mercury contamination across Florida's north-south axis. Variation in mercury concentrations measured in whole blood was highly associated with location, allowing the comparison of global DNA methylation levels across different "treatments" of mercury. Global DNA methylation in alligators across all locations was weakly associated with increased mercury exposure. However, a much more robust relationship was observed in those animals sampled from locations more highly contaminated with mercury. Also, similar to other vertebrates, global DNA methylation appears to decline with age in alligators. The relationship between age-associated loss of global DNA methylation and varying mercury exposures was examined to reveal a potential interaction. These findings demonstrate that global DNA methylation levels are associated with mercury exposure, and give insights into interactions between contaminants, aging, and epigenetics. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Developed-developing country partnerships: benefits to developed countries?

PubMed

Syed, Shamsuzzoha B; Dadwal, Viva; Rutter, Paul; Storr, Julie; Hightower, Joyce D; Gooden, Rachel; Carlet, Jean; Bagheri Nejad, Sepideh; Kelley, Edward T; Donaldson, Liam; Pittet, Didier

2012-06-18

Developing countries can generate effective solutions for today's global health challenges. This paper reviews relevant literature to construct the case for international cooperation, and in particular, developed-developing country partnerships. Standard database and web-based searches were conducted for publications in English between 1990 and 2010. Studies containing full or partial data relating to international cooperation between developed and developing countries were retained for further analysis. Of 227 articles retained through initial screening, 65 were included in the final analysis. The results were two-fold: some articles pointed to intangible benefits accrued by developed country partners, but the majority of information pointed to developing country innovations that can potentially inform health systems in developed countries. This information spanned all six WHO health system components. Ten key health areas where developed countries have the most to learn from the developing world were identified and include, rural health service delivery; skills substitution; decentralisation of management; creative problem-solving; education in communicable disease control; innovation in mobile phone use; low technology simulation training; local product manufacture; health financing; and social entrepreneurship. While there are no guarantees that innovations from developing country experiences can effectively transfer to developed countries, combined developed-developing country learning processes can potentially generate effective solutions for global health systems. However, the global pool of knowledge in this area is virgin and further work needs to be undertaken to advance understanding of health innovation diffusion. Even more urgently, a standardized method for reporting partnership benefits is needed--this is perhaps the single most immediate need in planning for, and realizing, the full potential of international cooperation between developed and developing countries.

40 CFR 98.3 - What are the general monitoring, reporting, recordkeeping and verification requirements of this...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... request under this paragraph is approved by the Administrator. (k) Revised global warming potentials and... or more compounds in Table A-1 of this subpart, Global Warming Potentials, is not required to submit... to Table A-1 of this subpart, Global Warming Potentials. (1) Best available monitoring methods. From...

The political economy of emergency and essential surgery in global health.

PubMed

Hedges, Jeremy P; Mock, Charles N; Cherian, Meena N

2010-09-01

Emergency and essential surgery (EES) remains a low priority on global health agendas even though a growing body of evidence demonstrates that EES is a cost-effective public health intervention and that it holds the potential to prevent a sizable number of deaths and disabilities. The inferior status of EES should be considered, in part, a political problem and subject to political analysis. This type of political economy examination has been used for other important global health issues but has not been applied to EES. By addressing political concerns and prospects, EES can be better positioned on international agendas, thus improving surgical care delivered to the poor.

Technological and social innovation: a unifying new paradigm for global health.

PubMed

Gardner, Charles A; Acharya, Tara; Yach, Derek

2007-01-01

This paper highlights the growing capacity for innovation in some developing countries. To maximize the potential of this phenomenon for global health, countries and donors need to link two disparate schools of thought: (1) a search for technological solutions exemplified by global public-private product development partnerships, and (2) a focus on systemic solutions exemplified by health policy and systems research. A strong capacity for both technological and social innovation in developing countries represents the only truly sustainable means of improving the effectiveness of health systems. Local public-private research and development partnerships, implementation research, and individual leadership are needed to achieve this goal.

Sustainable liquid biofuels from biomass: the writing's on the walls.

PubMed

Gomez, Leonardo D; Steele-King, Clare G; McQueen-Mason, Simon J

2008-01-01

Domination of the global biosphere by human beings is unprecedented in the history of the planet, and our impact is such that substantive changes in ecosystems, and the global environment as a whole, are now becoming apparent. Our activity drives the steady increase in global temperature observed in recent decades. The realization of the adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the environment, together with declining petroleum reserves, has ensured that the quest for sustainable and environmentally benign sources of energy for our industrial economies and consumer societies has become urgent in recent years. Consequently, there is renewed interest in the production and use of fuels from plants. The 'first-generation' biofuels made from starch and sugar appear unsustainable because of the potential stress that their production places on food commodities. Second-generation biofuels, produced from cheap and abundant plant biomass, are seen as the most attractive solution to this problem, but a number of technical hurdles must be overcome before their potential is realized. This review will focus on the underpinning research necessary to enable the cost-effective production of liquid fuels from plant biomass, with a particular focus on aspects related to plant cell walls and their bioconversion.

Global Cryptosporidium Loads from Livestock Manure.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Lucie C; Benders, Jorien; Medema, Gertjan; Hofstra, Nynke

2017-08-01

Understanding the environmental pathways of Cryptosporidium is essential for effective management of human and animal cryptosporidiosis. In this paper we aim to quantify livestock Cryptosporidium spp. loads to land on a global scale using spatially explicit process-based modeling, and to explore the effect of manure storage and treatment on oocyst loads using scenario analysis. Our model GloWPa-Crypto L1 calculates a total global Cryptosporidium spp. load from livestock manure of 3.2 × 10 23 oocysts per year. Cattle, especially calves, are the largest contributors, followed by chickens and pigs. Spatial differences are linked to animal spatial distributions. North America, Europe, and Oceania together account for nearly a quarter of the total oocyst load, meaning that the developing world accounts for the largest share. GloWPa-Crypto L1 is most sensitive to oocyst excretion rates, due to large variation reported in literature. We compared the current situation to four alternative management scenarios. We find that although manure storage halves oocyst loads, manure treatment, especially of cattle manure and particularly at elevated temperatures, has a larger load reduction potential than manure storage (up to 4.6 log units). Regions with high reduction potential include India, Bangladesh, western Europe, China, several countries in Africa, and New Zealand.

Global high-frequency source imaging accounting for complexity in Green's functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, V.; Zhan, Z.

2017-12-01

The general characterization of earthquake source processes at long periods has seen great success via seismic finite fault inversion/modeling. Complementary techniques, such as seismic back-projection, extend the capabilities of source imaging to higher frequencies and reveal finer details of the rupture process. However, such high frequency methods are limited by the implicit assumption of simple Green's functions, which restricts the use of global arrays and introduces artifacts (e.g., sweeping effects, depth/water phases) that require careful attention. This motivates the implementation of an imaging technique that considers the potential complexity of Green's functions at high frequencies. We propose an alternative inversion approach based on the modest assumption that the path effects contributing to signals within high-coherency subarrays share a similar form. Under this assumption, we develop a method that can combine multiple high-coherency subarrays to invert for a sparse set of subevents. By accounting for potential variability in the Green's functions among subarrays, our method allows for the utilization of heterogeneous global networks for robust high resolution imaging of the complex rupture process. The approach also provides a consistent framework for examining frequency-dependent radiation across a broad frequency spectrum.

Comparison of physically- and economically-based CO2-equivalences for methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, O.

2012-05-01

There is a controversy on the role methane (and other short-lived species) should play in climate mitigation policies, and there is no consensus on what an optimal methane CO2-equivalence should be. We revisit this question by discussing some aspects of physically-based (i.e. global- warming potential or GWP and global temperature change potential or GTP) and socio-economically-based climate metrics. To this effect we use a simplified global damage potential (GDP) that was introduced by earlier authors and investigate the uncertainties in the methane CO2-equivalence that arise from physical and socio-economic factors. The median value of the methane GDP comes out very close to the widely used methane 100-yr GWP because of various compensating effects. However, there is a large spread in possible methane CO2-equivalences from this metric (1-99% interval: 10.0-42.5; 5-95% interval: 12.5-38.0) that is essentially due to the choice in some socio-economic parameters (i.e. the damage cost function and the discount rate). The main factor differentiating the methane 100-yr GTP from the methane 100-yr GWP and the GDP is the fact that the former metric is an end-point metric, whereas the latter are cumulative metrics. There is some rationale for an increase in the methane CO2-equivalence in the future as global warming unfolds, as implied by a convex damage function in the case of the GDP metric. We also show that a methane CO2-equivalence based on a pulse emission is sufficient to inform multi-year climate policies and emissions reductions, as long as there is enough visibility on CO2 prices and CO2-equivalences for the stakeholders.

Methane hydrate - A major reservoir of carbon in the shallow geosphere?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kvenvolden, K.A.

1988-01-01

Methane hydrates are solids composed of rigid cages of water molecules that enclose methane. Sediment containing methane hydrates is found within specific pressure-temperature conditions that occur in regions of permafrost and beneath the sea in outer continental margins. Because methane hydrates are globally widespread and concentrate methane within the gas-hydrate structure, the potential amount of methane present in the shallow geosphere at subsurface depths of < ???2000 m is very large. However, estimates of the amount are speculative and range over about three orders of magnitude, from 2 ?? 103 to 4 ?? 106 Gt (gigatons = 1015 g) of carbon, depending on the assumptions made. The estimate I favor is ??? 1 ?? 104 Gt of carbon. The estimated amount of organic carbon in the methane-hydrate reservoir greatly exceeds that in many other reservoirs of the global carbon cycle - for example, the atmosphere (3.6 Gt); terrestrial biota (830 Gt); terrestrial soil, detritus and peat (1960 Gt); marine biota (3 Gt); and marine dissolved materials (980 Gt). In fact, the amount of carbon may exceed that in all fossil fuel deposits (5 ?? 103 Gt). Because methane hydrates contain so much methane and occur in the shallow geosphere, they are of interest as a potential resource of natural gas and as a possible source of atmospheric methane released by global warming. As a potential resource, methane hydrates pose both engineering and production problems. As a contributor to a changing global climate, destabilized methane hydrates, particularly those in shallow, nearshore regions of the Arctic Ocean, may have some effect, but this effect will probably be minimal, at least during the next 100 years. ?? 1988.

Lead Hepatotoxicity and Potential Health Effects

EPA Science Inventory

Occupational and environmental exposures to lead (Pb), one of the toxic metal pollutants, is of global concern. Health risks are increasingly associated with environmental exposures to Pb emissions from, for example, the widespread use of leaded gasoline in developing countries. ...

Global mismatch between fishing dependency and larval supply from marine reserves

PubMed Central

Andrello, Marco; Guilhaumon, François; Albouy, Camille; Parravicini, Valeriano; Scholtens, Joeri; Verley, Philippe; Barange, Manuel; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Manel, Stéphanie; Mouillot, David

2017-01-01

Marine reserves are viewed as flagship tools to protect exploited species and to contribute to the effective management of coastal fisheries. Yet, the extent to which marine reserves are globally interconnected and able to effectively seed areas, where fisheries are most critical for food and livelihood security is largely unknown. Using a hydrodynamic model of larval dispersal, we predict that most marine reserves are not interconnected by currents and that their potential benefits to fishing areas are presently limited, since countries with high dependency on coastal fisheries receive very little larval supply from marine reserves. This global mismatch could be reversed, however, by placing new marine reserves in areas sufficiently remote to minimize social and economic costs but sufficiently connected through sea currents to seed the most exploited fisheries and endangered ecosystems. PMID:28691710

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition alters growth responses of European beech (Fagus sylvativa L.) to climate change.

PubMed

Hess, Carsten; Niemeyer, Thomas; Fichtner, Andreas; Jansen, Kirstin; Kunz, Matthias; Maneke, Moritz; von Wehrden, Henrik; Quante, Markus; Walmsley, David; von Oheimb, Goddert; Härdtle, Werner

2018-02-01

Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers of global change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges in Preparing Veterinarians for Global Animal Health: Understanding the Public Sector.

PubMed

Hollier, Paul J; Quinn, Kaylee A; Brown, Corrie C

Understanding of global systems is essential for veterinarians seeking to work in realms outside of their national domain. In the global system, emphasis remains on the public sector, and the current curricular emphasis in developed countries is on private clinical practice for the domestic employment market. There is a resulting lack of competency at graduation for effective engagement internationally. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has created standards for public sector operations in animal health, which must be functional to allow for sustainable development. This public sector, known as the Veterinary Services, or VS, serves to control public good diseases, and once effectively built and fully operational, allows for the evolution of a functional private sector, focused on private good diseases. Until the VS is fully functional, support of private good services is non-sustainable and any efforts delivered are not long lasting. As new graduates opt for careers working in the international development sector, it is essential that they understand the OIE guidelines to help support continuing improvement. Developing global veterinarians by inserting content into the veterinary curriculum on how public systems can operate effectively could markedly increase the potential of our professional contributions globally, and particularly in the areas most in need.

Integrity of Cerebellar Fastigial Nucleus Intrinsic Neurons Is Critical for the Global Ischemic Preconditioning

PubMed Central

Regnier-Golanov, Angelique S.; Britz, Gavin W.

2017-01-01

Excitation of intrinsic neurons of cerebellar fastigial nucleus (FN) renders brain tolerant to local and global ischemia. This effect reaches a maximum 72 h after the stimulation and lasts over 10 days. Comparable neuroprotection is observed following sublethal global brain ischemia, a phenomenon known as preconditioning. We hypothesized that FN may participate in the mechanisms of ischemic preconditioning as a part of the intrinsic neuroprotective mechanism. To explore potential significance of FN neurons in brain ischemic tolerance we lesioned intrinsic FN neurons with excitotoxin ibotenic acid five days before exposure to 20 min four-vessel occlusion (4-VO) global ischemia while analyzing neuronal damage in Cornu Ammoni area 1 (CA1) hippocampal area one week later. In FN-lesioned animals, loss of CA1 cells was higher by 22% compared to control (phosphate buffered saline (PBS)-injected) animals. Moreover, lesion of FN neurons increased morbidity following global ischemia by 50%. Ablation of FN neurons also reversed salvaging effects of five-minute ischemic preconditioning on CA1 neurons and morbidity, while ablation of cerebellar dentate nucleus neurons did not change effect of ischemic preconditioning. We conclude that FN is an important part of intrinsic neuroprotective system, which participates in ischemic preconditioning and may participate in naturally occurring neuroprotection, such as “diving response”. PMID:28934119

The relation between degree-2160 spectral models of Earth's gravitational and topographic potential: a guide on global correlation measures and their dependency on approximation effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirt, Christian; Rexer, Moritz; Claessens, Sten; Rummel, Reiner

2017-10-01

Comparisons between high-degree models of the Earth's topographic and gravitational potential may give insight into the quality and resolution of the source data sets, provide feedback on the modelling techniques and help to better understand the gravity field composition. Degree correlations (cross-correlation coefficients) or reduction rates (quantifying the amount of topographic signal contained in the gravitational potential) are indicators used in a number of contemporary studies. However, depending on the modelling techniques and underlying levels of approximation, the correlation at high degrees may vary significantly, as do the conclusions drawn. The present paper addresses this problem by attempting to provide a guide on global correlation measures with particular emphasis on approximation effects and variants of topographic potential modelling. We investigate and discuss the impact of different effects (e.g., truncation of series expansions of the topographic potential, mass compression, ellipsoidal versus spherical approximation, ellipsoidal harmonic coefficient versus spherical harmonic coefficient (SHC) representation) on correlation measures. Our study demonstrates that the correlation coefficients are realistic only when the model's harmonic coefficients of a given degree are largely independent of the coefficients of other degrees, permitting degree-wise evaluations. This is the case, e.g., when both models are represented in terms of SHCs and spherical approximation (i.e. spherical arrangement of field-generating masses). Alternatively, a representation in ellipsoidal harmonics can be combined with ellipsoidal approximation. The usual ellipsoidal approximation level (i.e. ellipsoidal mass arrangement) is shown to bias correlation coefficients when SHCs are used. Importantly, gravity models from the International Centre for Global Earth Models (ICGEM) are inherently based on this approximation level. A transformation is presented that enables a transformation of ICGEM geopotential models from ellipsoidal to spherical approximation. The transformation is applied to generate a spherical transform of EGM2008 (sphEGM2008) that can meaningfully be correlated degree-wise with the topographic potential. We exploit this new technique and compare a number of models of topographic potential constituents (e.g., potential implied by land topography, ocean water masses) based on the Earth2014 global relief model and a mass-layer forward modelling technique with sphEGM2008. Different to previous findings, our results show very significant short-scale correlation between Earth's gravitational potential and the potential generated by Earth's land topography (correlation +0.92, and 60% of EGM2008 signals are delivered through the forward modelling). Our tests reveal that the potential generated by Earth's oceans water masses is largely unrelated to the geopotential at short scales, suggesting that altimetry-derived gravity and/or bathymetric data sets are significantly underpowered at 5 arc-min scales. We further decompose the topographic potential into the Bouguer shell and terrain correction and show that they are responsible for about 20 and 25% of EGM2008 short-scale signals, respectively. As a general conclusion, the paper shows the importance of using compatible models in topographic/gravitational potential comparisons and recommends the use of SHCs together with spherical approximation or EHCs with ellipsoidal approximation in order to avoid biases in the correlation measures.

Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity.

PubMed

Ramírez, Francisco; Afán, Isabel; Davis, Lloyd S; Chiaradia, André

2017-02-01

Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world's richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation.

Global regularity for a family of 3D models of the axi-symmetric Navier–Stokes equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Thomas Y.; Liu, Pengfei; Wang, Fei

2018-05-01

We consider a family of three-dimensional models for the axi-symmetric incompressible Navier–Stokes equations. The models are derived by changing the strength of the convection terms in the axisymmetric Navier–Stokes equations written using a set of transformed variables. We prove the global regularity of the family of models in the case that the strength of convection is slightly stronger than that of the original Navier–Stokes equations, which demonstrates the potential stabilizing effect of convection.

Global-local methodologies and their application to nonlinear analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

1989-01-01

An assessment is made of the potential of different global-local analysis strategies for predicting the nonlinear and postbuckling responses of structures. Two postbuckling problems of composite panels are used as benchmarks and the application of different global-local methodologies to these benchmarks is outlined. The key elements of each of the global-local strategies are discussed and future research areas needed to realize the full potential of global-local methodologies are identified.

Global Health Education: a cross-sectional study among German medical students to identify needs, deficits and potential benefits (Part 2 of 2: Knowledge gaps and potential benefits).

PubMed

Bozorgmehr, Kayvan; Menzel-Severing, Johannes; Schubert, Kirsten; Tinnemann, Peter

2010-10-08

In Germany, educational deficits or potential benefits involved in global health education have not been analysed till now. We assess the importance medical students place on learning about social determinants of health (SDH) and assess their knowledge of global health topics in relation to (i) mobility patterns, their education in (ii) tropical medicine or (iii) global health. Cross-sectional study among medical students from all 36 medical schools in Germany using a web-based, semi-structured questionnaire. Participants were recruited via mailing-lists of students' unions, all medical students registered in 2007 were eligible to participate in the study. We captured international mobility patterns, exposure to global health learning opportunities and attitudes to learning about SDH. Both an objective and subjective knowledge assessment were performed. 1126 online-replies were received and analysed. International health electives in developing countries correlated significantly with a higher importance placed on all provided SDH (p ≤ 0.006). Participation in tropical medicine (p < 0.03) and global health courses (p < 0.02) were significantly associated with a higher rating of 'culture, language and religion' and the 'economic system'. Global health trainings correlated with significantly higher ratings of the 'educational system' (p = 0.007) and the 'health system structure' (p = 0.007), while the item 'politics' was marginally significant (p = 0.053).In the knowledge assessment students achieved an average score of 3.6 (SD 1.5; Mdn 4.0), 75% achieved a score of 4.0 or less (Q25 = 3.0; Q75 = 4.0) from a maximum achievable score of 8.0. A better performance was associated with international health electives (p = 0.032), participation in tropical medicine (p = 0.038) and global health (p = 0.258) courses. The importance medical students in our sample placed on learning about SDH strongly interacts with students' mobility, and participation in tropical medicine and global health courses. The knowledge assessment revealed deficits and outlined needs to further analyse education gaps in global health. Developing concerted educational interventions aimed at fostering students' engagement with SDH could make full use of synergy effects inherent in student mobility, tropical medicine and global health education.

Global Health Education: a cross-sectional study among German medical students to identify needs, deficits and potential benefits (Part 2 of 2: Knowledge gaps and potential benefits)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In Germany, educational deficits or potential benefits involved in global health education have not been analysed till now. Objective We assess the importance medical students place on learning about social determinants of health (SDH) and assess their knowledge of global health topics in relation to (i) mobility patterns, their education in (ii) tropical medicine or (iii) global health. Methods Cross-sectional study among medical students from all 36 medical schools in Germany using a web-based, semi-structured questionnaire. Participants were recruited via mailing-lists of students' unions, all medical students registered in 2007 were eligible to participate in the study. We captured international mobility patterns, exposure to global health learning opportunities and attitudes to learning about SDH. Both an objective and subjective knowledge assessment were performed. Results 1126 online-replies were received and analysed. International health electives in developing countries correlated significantly with a higher importance placed on all provided SDH (p ≤ 0.006). Participation in tropical medicine (p < 0.03) and global health courses (p < 0.02) were significantly associated with a higher rating of 'culture, language and religion' and the 'economic system'. Global health trainings correlated with significantly higher ratings of the 'educational system' (p = 0.007) and the 'health system structure' (p = 0.007), while the item 'politics' was marginally significant (p = 0.053). In the knowledge assessment students achieved an average score of 3.6 (SD 1.5; Mdn 4.0), 75% achieved a score of 4.0 or less (Q25 = 3.0; Q75 = 4.0) from a maximum achievable score of 8.0. A better performance was associated with international health electives (p = 0.032), participation in tropical medicine (p = 0.038) and global health (p = 0.258) courses. Conclusion The importance medical students in our sample placed on learning about SDH strongly interacts with students' mobility, and participation in tropical medicine and global health courses. The knowledge assessment revealed deficits and outlined needs to further analyse education gaps in global health. Developing concerted educational interventions aimed at fostering students' engagement with SDH could make full use of synergy effects inherent in student mobility, tropical medicine and global health education. PMID:20932278

Global prevalence and distribution of genes and microorganisms involved in mercury methylation

DOE PAGES

Podar, Mircea; Gilmour, C. C.; Brandt, Craig C.; ...

2015-10-09

Mercury methylation produces the neurotoxic, highly bioaccumulative methylmercury (MeHg). Recent identification of the methylation genes (hgcAB) provides the foundation for broadly evaluating microbial Hg-methylation potential in nature without making explicit rate measurements. We first queried hgcAB diversity and distribution in all available microbial metagenomes, encompassing most environments. The genes were found in nearly all anaerobic, but not in aerobic, environments including oxygenated layers of the open ocean. Critically, hgcAB was effectively absent in ~1500 human microbiomes, suggesting a low risk of endogenous MeHg production. New potential methylation habitats were identified, including invertebrate guts, thawing permafrost, coastal dead zones, soils, sediments,more » and extreme environments, suggesting multiple routes for MeHg entry into food webs. Several new taxonomic groups potentially capable of Hg-methylation emerged, including lineages having no cultured representatives. We then begin to address long-standing evolutionary questions about Hg-methylation and ancient carbon fixation mechanisms while generating a new global view of Hg-methylation potential.« less

The roles of the convex hull and the number of potential intersections in performance on visually presented traveling salesperson problems.

PubMed

Vickers, Douglas; Lee, Michael D; Dry, Matthew; Hughes, Peter

2003-10-01

The planar Euclidean version of the traveling salesperson problem requires finding the shortest tour through a two-dimensional array of points. MacGregor and Ormerod (1996) have suggested that people solve such problems by using a global-to-local perceptual organizing process based on the convex hull of the array. We review evidence for and against this idea, before considering an alternative, local-to-global perceptual process, based on the rapid automatic identification of nearest neighbors. We compare these approaches in an experiment in which the effects of number of convex hull points and number of potential intersections on solution performance are measured. Performance worsened with more points on the convex hull and with fewer potential intersections. A measure of response uncertainty was unaffected by the number of convex hull points but increased with fewer potential intersections. We discuss a possible interpretation of these results in terms of a hierarchical solution process based on linking nearest neighbor clusters.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

2016-09-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

Social Identities in a Globalized World: Challenges and Opportunities for Collective Action.

PubMed

Rosenmann, Amir; Reese, Gerhard; Cameron, James E

2016-03-01

Globalization-the increasing interconnectedness of societies, economies, and cultures-is a defining feature of contemporary social life. Paradoxically, it underlies both the dynamics of global crises (e.g., rising inequality, climate change) and the possibilities for ameliorating them. In this review, we introduce globalization as a multifaceted process and elaborate its psychological effects with respect to identity, culture, and collective action. Using a social identity approach, we discuss three foci of identification: local culture, globalized Western culture, and humanity in its entirety. Each source of identification is analyzed in terms of its psychological meaning and position vis-à-vis the global power structure. Globalized Western culture forms the basis for an exclusive globalized identity, which privileges only some cultures and ways of life. We conceptualize reactions to its core values in terms of cultural identification and rejection and acceptance of, or opposition to, its global social order. Opposition to this inequitable global order is central to inclusive globalized identities (e.g., identification with humanity). These identities may encourage globally minded collective action, even as more research is needed to address their potential caveats. We consider possibilities for social change and action and conclude that a focused application of psychological science to the study of these issues is overdue. © The Author(s) 2016.

A framework on the emergence and effectiveness of global health networks

PubMed Central

Shiffman, Jeremy; Quissell, Kathryn; Schmitz, Hans Peter; Pelletier, David L; Smith, Stephanie L; Berlan, David; Gneiting, Uwe; Van Slyke, David; Mergel, Ines; Rodriguez, Mariela; Walt, Gill

2016-01-01

Since 1990 mortality and morbidity decline has been more extensive for some conditions prevalent in low- and middle-income countries than for others. One reason may be differences in the effectiveness of global health networks, which have proliferated in recent years. Some may be more capable than others in attracting attention to a condition, in generating funding, in developing interventions and in convincing national governments to adopt policies. This article introduces a supplement on the emergence and effectiveness of global health networks. The supplement examines networks concerned with six global health problems: tuberculosis (TB), pneumonia, tobacco use, alcohol harm, maternal mortality and newborn deaths. This article presents a conceptual framework delineating factors that may shape why networks crystallize more easily surrounding some issues than others, and once formed, why some are better able than others to shape policy and public health outcomes. All supplement papers draw on this framework. The framework consists of 10 factors in three categories: (1) features of the networks and actors that comprise them, including leadership, governance arrangements, network composition and framing strategies; (2) conditions in the global policy environment, including potential allies and opponents, funding availability and global expectations concerning which issues should be prioritized; (3) and characteristics of the issue, including severity, tractability and affected groups. The article also explains the design of the project, which is grounded in comparison of networks surrounding three matched issues: TB and pneumonia, tobacco use and alcohol harm, and maternal and newborn survival. Despite similar burden and issue characteristics, there has been considerably greater policy traction for the first in each pair. The supplement articles aim to explain the role of networks in shaping these differences, and collectively represent the first comparative effort to understand the emergence and effectiveness of global health networks. PMID:26318679

Barriers to global health development: An international quantitative survey

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Global health’s goal of reducing low-and-middle-income country versus high-income country health disparities faces complex challenges. Although there have been discussions of barriers, there has not been a broad-based, quantitative survey of such barriers. Methods 432 global health professionals were invited via email to participate in an online survey, with 268 (62%) participating. The survey assessed participants’ (A) demographic and global health background, (B) perceptions regarding 66 barriers’ seriousness, (C) detailed ratings of barriers designated most serious, (D) potential solutions. Results Thirty-four (of 66) barriers were seen as moderately or more serious, highlighting the widespread, significant challenges global health development faces. Perceived barrier seriousness differed significantly across domains: Resource Limitations mean = 2.47 (0–4 Likert scale), Priority Selection mean = 2.20, Corruption, Lack of Competence mean = 1.87, Social and Cultural Barriers mean = 1.68. Some system-level predictors showed significant but relatively limited relations. For instance, for Global Health Domain, HIV and Mental Health had higher levels of perceived Social and Cultural Barriers than other GH Domains. Individual–level global health experience predictors had small but significant effects, with seriousness of (a) Corruption, Lack of Competence, and (b) Priority Selection barriers positively correlated with respondents’ level of LMIC-oriented (e.g., weeks/year spent in LMIC) but Academic Global Health Achievement (e.g., number of global health publications) negatively correlated with overall barrier seriousness. Conclusions That comparatively few system-level predictors (e.g., Organization Type) were significant suggests these barriers may be relatively fundamental at the system-level. Individual-level and system-level effects do have policy implications; e.g., Priority Selection barriers were among the most serious, yet effects on seriousness of how LMIC-oriented a professional was versus level of academic global health achievement ran in opposite directions, suggesting increased discussion of priorities between LMIC-based and other professionals may be useful. It is hoped the 22 suggested solutions will provide useful ideas for addressing global health barriers. PMID:28972971

Barriers to global health development: An international quantitative survey.

PubMed

Weiss, Bahr; Pollack, Amie Alley

2017-01-01

Global health's goal of reducing low-and-middle-income country versus high-income country health disparities faces complex challenges. Although there have been discussions of barriers, there has not been a broad-based, quantitative survey of such barriers. 432 global health professionals were invited via email to participate in an online survey, with 268 (62%) participating. The survey assessed participants' (A) demographic and global health background, (B) perceptions regarding 66 barriers' seriousness, (C) detailed ratings of barriers designated most serious, (D) potential solutions. Thirty-four (of 66) barriers were seen as moderately or more serious, highlighting the widespread, significant challenges global health development faces. Perceived barrier seriousness differed significantly across domains: Resource Limitations mean = 2.47 (0-4 Likert scale), Priority Selection mean = 2.20, Corruption, Lack of Competence mean = 1.87, Social and Cultural Barriers mean = 1.68. Some system-level predictors showed significant but relatively limited relations. For instance, for Global Health Domain, HIV and Mental Health had higher levels of perceived Social and Cultural Barriers than other GH Domains. Individual-level global health experience predictors had small but significant effects, with seriousness of (a) Corruption, Lack of Competence, and (b) Priority Selection barriers positively correlated with respondents' level of LMIC-oriented (e.g., weeks/year spent in LMIC) but Academic Global Health Achievement (e.g., number of global health publications) negatively correlated with overall barrier seriousness. That comparatively few system-level predictors (e.g., Organization Type) were significant suggests these barriers may be relatively fundamental at the system-level. Individual-level and system-level effects do have policy implications; e.g., Priority Selection barriers were among the most serious, yet effects on seriousness of how LMIC-oriented a professional was versus level of academic global health achievement ran in opposite directions, suggesting increased discussion of priorities between LMIC-based and other professionals may be useful. It is hoped the 22 suggested solutions will provide useful ideas for addressing global health barriers.

Glacial Influences on Solar Radiation in a Subarctic Sea.

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding macroscale processes controlling solar radia­tion in marine systems will be important in interpreting the potential effects of global change from increasing ultraviolet radiation (UV) and glacial retreat. This study provides the first quantitative assessment of UV i...

OECD Trilog Plenary Symposium : public policy issues in global freight logistics

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

In this study, the authors present a qualitative assessment of the potential effects of various ITS strategies on pollutant emission from motor vehicles. They first provide an overview of the major issues defining the possible relationships between I...

Numerical Predictions of Damage and Failure in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Laminates Using a Thermodynamically-Based Work Potential Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan Jorge; Waas, Anthony M.

2013-01-01

A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, referred to as enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Consistent characteristic lengths are introduced into the formulation to govern the evolution of the failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs are derived. The theory is implemented into a commercial finite element code. The model is verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared against the experimental results.

Raptor interactions with wind energy: Case studies from around the world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Richard T.; Kolar, Patrick S.; Ferrer, Miguel; Nygård, Torgeir; Johnston, Naira; Hunt, W. Grainger; Smit-Robinson, Hanneline A.; Farmer, Christopher J; Huso, Manuela; Katzner, Todd

2018-01-01

The global potential for wind power generation is vast, and the number of installations is increasing rapidly. We review case studies from around the world of the effects on raptors of wind-energy development. Collision mortality, displacement, and habitat loss have the potential to cause population-level effects, especially for species that are rare or endangered. The impact on raptors has much to do with their behavior, so careful siting of wind-energy developments to avoid areas suited to raptor breeding, foraging, or migration would reduce these effects. At established wind farms that already conflict with raptors, reduction of fatalities may be feasible by curtailment of turbines as raptors approach, and offset through mitigation of other human causes of mortality such as electrocution and poisoning, provided the relative effects can be quantified. Measurement of raptor mortality at wind farms is the subject of intense effort and study, especially where mitigation is required by law, with novel statistical approaches recently made available to improve the notoriously difficult-to-estimate mortality rates of rare and hard-to-detect species. Global standards for wind farm placement, monitoring, and effects mitigation would be a valuable contribution to raptor conservation worldwide.

Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

2012-12-01

Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo change, 2) an increase in CO2 concentrations that exactly balances the forcing from land use change at the global level, and 3) a simulation combining the first two effects, resulting in net zero global-mean forcing as would occur in an idealized carbon cap-and-trade scheme that accounts for the albedo effect of land use change. The pattern of land use change that we examine is derived from an integrated assessment model that accounts for population, demographic, technological, and policy changes over the 21st century. We find significant differences in the pattern of climate change associated with each of these forcing scenarios, demonstrating the non-additivity of radiative forcing from land-use change and greenhouse gases in the context of a hypothetical scenario of future land use change. These results have implications for the development of land use and climate policies.

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals

PubMed Central

Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Levin, Simon A.; Robinson, Timothy P.; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-01-01

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg−1, 148 mg⋅kg−1, and 172 mg⋅kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health. PMID:25792457

Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

PubMed

Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

2011-01-01

Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals.

PubMed

Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T; Levin, Simon A; Robinson, Timothy P; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-05-05

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg(-1), 148 mg⋅kg(-1), and 172 mg⋅kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.

Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Treesearch

Yiqi Luo; Dieter Gerten; Guerric Le Maire; William J. Parton; Ensheng Weng; Xuhui Zhou; Cindy Keough; Claus Beier; Philippe Ciais; Wolfgang Cramer; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Bridget Emmett; Paul J. Hanson; Alan Knapp; Sune Linder; Dan Nepstad; Lindsey. Rustad

2008-01-01

Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive...

Latitudinal shifts in spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks and spruce-fir forest distrbutions with climate change

Treesearch

D.W. Williams; Andrew Liebhold

1997-01-01

Changes in global temperatures over the next century resulting from the greenhouse effect may have profound effects on the distribution and abundance of insect populations. One general hypothesis is the poleward shift of species distributions. We investigated potential range shifts for the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, in the...

Modelled effects of precipitation on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Treesearch

Dieter Gerten; Yiqi Luo; Guerric Le Maire; William J. Parton; Cindy Keough; Ensheng Weng; Claus Beier; Philippe Ciais; Wolfgang Cramer; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Paul J. Hanson; Alan A. K. Knapp; Sune Linder; Dan Nepstad; Lindsey Rustad; Alwyn. Sowerby

2008-01-01

The ongoing changes in the global climate expose the world’s ecosystems not only to increasing CO2 concentrations and temperatures but also to altered precipitation (P) regimes. Using four well-established process-based ecosystem models (LPJ, DayCent, ORCHIDEE, TECO), we explored effects of potential P...

75 FR 32728 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List van Rossem's...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-09

... range may be considered significant, and why. (5) The potential effects of climate change on this...). The petitioner also asserts the effects of global climate change, including sea-level rise, shoreline...). Fluctuations in food availability resulting from natural or anthropogenic changes in the environment (CBD 2009...

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

1999-01-01

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

A potential-of-mean-force approach for fracture mechanics of heterogeneous materials using the lattice element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laubie, Hadrien; Radjaï, Farhang; Pellenq, Roland; Ulm, Franz-Josef

2017-08-01

Fracture of heterogeneous materials has emerged as a critical issue in many engineering applications, ranging from subsurface energy to biomedical applications, and requires a rational framework that allows linking local fracture processes with global fracture descriptors such as the energy release rate, fracture energy and fracture toughness. This is achieved here by means of a local and a global potential-of-mean-force (PMF) inspired Lattice Element Method (LEM) approach. In the local approach, fracture-strength criteria derived from the effective interaction potentials between mass points are shown to exhibit a scaling commensurable with the energy dissipation of fracture processes. In the global PMF-approach, fracture is considered as a sequence of equilibrium states associated with minimum potential energy states analogous to Griffith's approach. It is found that this global approach has much in common with a Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) approach, in which mass points are randomly removed following a maximum dissipation criterion until the energy release rate reaches the fracture energy. The duality of the two approaches is illustrated through the application of the PMF-inspired LEM for fracture propagation in a homogeneous linear elastic solid using different means of evaluating the energy release rate. Finally, by application of the method to a textbook example of fracture propagation in a heterogeneous material, it is shown that the proposed PMF-inspired LEM approach captures some well-known toughening mechanisms related to fracture energy contrast, elasticity contrast and crack deflection in the considered two-phase layered composite material.

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

PubMed

Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

2011-01-01

Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N₂O], methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N₂O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N₂O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission. by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, R. L.

2013-12-01

Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

Global-local methodologies and their application to nonlinear analysis. [for structural postbuckling study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

1986-01-01

An assessment is made of the potential of different global-local analysis strategies for predicting the nonlinear and postbuckling responses of structures. Two postbuckling problems of composite panels are used as benchmarks and the application of different global-local methodologies to these benchmarks is outlined. The key elements of each of the global-local strategies are discussed and future research areas needed to realize the full potential of global-local methodologies are identified.

A guide to potential soil carbon sequestration; land-use management for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markewich, H.W.; Buell, G.R.

2001-01-01

Terrestrial carbon sequestration has a potential role in reducing the recent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) that is, in part, contributing to global warming. Because the most stable long-term surface reservoir for carbon is the soil, changes in agriculture and forestry can potentially reduce atmospheric CO2 through increased soil-carbon storage. If local governments and regional planning agencies are to effect changes in land-use management that could mitigate the impacts of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is essential to know how carbon is cycled and distributed on the landscape. Only then can a cost/benefit analysis be applied to carbon sequestration as a potential land-use management tool for mitigation of GHG emissions. For the past several years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been researching the role of terrestrial carbon in the global carbon cycle. Data from these investigations now allow the USGS to begin to (1) 'map' carbon at national, regional, and local scales; (2) calculate present carbon storage at land surface; and (3) identify those areas having the greatest potential to sequester carbon.

The health effects of exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water: a review by global geographical distribution.

PubMed

Huang, Lei; Wu, Haiyun; van der Kuijp, Tsering Jan

2015-01-01

Chronic arsenic exposure through drinking water has been a vigorously studied and debated subject. However, the existing literature does not allow for a thorough examination of the potential regional discrepancies that may arise among arsenic-related health outcomes. The purpose of this article is to provide an updated review of the literature on arsenic exposure and commonly discussed health effects according to global geographical distribution. This geographically segmented approach helps uncover the discrepancies in the health effects of arsenic. For instance, women are more susceptible than men to a few types of cancer in Taiwan, but not in other countries. Although skin cancer and arsenic exposure correlations have been discovered in Chile, Argentina, the United States, and Taiwan, no evident association was found in mainland China. We then propose several globally applicable recommendations to prevent and treat the further spread of arsenic poisoning and suggestions of future study designs and decision-making.

Thermal Rate Coefficients and Kinetic Isotope Effects for the Reaction OH + CH4 → H2O + CH3 on an ab Initio-Based Potential Energy Surface.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Guo, Hua

2018-03-15

Thermal rate coefficients for the title reaction and its various isotopologues are computed using a tunneling-corrected transition-state theory on a global potential energy surface recently developed by fitting a large number of high-level ab initio points. The calculated rate coefficients are found to agree well with the measured ones in a wide temperature range, validating the accuracy of the potential energy surface. Strong non-Arrhenius effects are found at low temperatures. In addition, the calculations reproduced the primary and secondary kinetic isotope effects. These results confirm the strong influence of tunneling to this heavy-light-heavy hydrogen abstraction reaction.

Globalization of health insecurity: the World Health Organization and the new International Health Regulations.

PubMed

Aginam, Obijiofor

2006-12-01

The transnational spread of communicable and non-communicable diseases has opened new vistas in the discourse of global health security. Emerging and re-emerging pathogens, according to exponents of globalization of public health, disrespect the geo-political boundaries of nation-states. Despite the global ramifications of health insecurity in a globalizing world, contemporary international law still operates as a classic inter-state law within an international system exclusively founded on a coalition of nation-states. This article argues that the dynamic process of globalization has created an opportunity for the World Health Organization to develop effective synergy with a multiplicity of actors in the exercise of its legal powers. WHO's legal and regulatory strategies must transform from traditional international legal approaches to disease governance to a "post-Westphalian public health governance": the use of formal and informal sources from state and non-state actors, hard law (treaties and regulations) and soft law (recommendations and travel advisories) in global health governance. This article assesses the potential promise and problems of WHO's new International Health Regulations (IHR) as a regulatory strategy for global health governance and global health security.

Understanding the impact of global trade liberalization on health systems pursuing universal health coverage.

PubMed

Missoni, Eduardo

2013-01-01

In the context of reemerging universalistic approaches to health care, the objective of this article was to contribute to the discussion by highlighting the potential influence of global trade liberalization on the balance between health demand and the capacity of health systems pursuing universal health coverage (UHC) to supply adequate health care. Being identified as a defining feature of globalization affecting health, trade liberalization is analyzed as a complex and multidimensional influence on the implementation of UHC. The analysis adopts a systems-thinking approach and refers to the six building blocks of World Health Organization's current "framework for action," emphasizing their interconnectedness. While offering new opportunities to increase access to health information and care, in the absence of global governance mechanisms ensuring adequate health protection and promotion, global trade tends to have negative effects on health systems' capacity to ensure UHC, both by causing higher demand and by interfering with the interconnected functioning of health systems' building blocks. The prevention of such an impact and the effective implementation of UHC would highly benefit from a more consistent commitment and stronger leadership by the World Health Organization in protecting health in global policymaking fora in all sectors. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

2015-09-01

Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Bioeconomic analysis of child-targeted subsidies for artemisinin combination therapies: a cost-effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

Klein, Eili Y.; Smith, David L.; Cohen, Justin M.; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-01-01

The Affordable Medicines Facility for malaria (AMFm) was conceived as a global market-based mechanism to increase access to effective malaria treatment and prolong effectiveness of artemisinin. Although results from a pilot implementation suggested that the subsidy was effective in increasing access to high-quality artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), the Global Fund has converted AMFm into a country-driven mechanism whereby individual countries could choose to fund the subsidy from within their country envelopes. Because the initial costs of the subsidy in the pilot countries was higher than expected, countries are also exploring alternatives to a universal subsidy, such as subsidizing only child doses. We examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of a child-targeted policy using an age-structured bioeconomic model of malaria from the provider perspective. Because the vast majority of malaria deaths occur in children, targeting children could potentially improve the cost-effectiveness of the subsidy, though it would avert significantly fewer deaths. However, the benefits of a child-targeted subsidy (i.e. deaths averted) are eroded as leakage (i.e. older individuals taking young child-targeted doses) increases, with few of the benefits of a universal subsidy gained (i.e. reductions in overall prevalence). Although potentially more cost-effective, a child-targeted subsidy must contain measures to reduce the possibility of leakage. PMID:25994293

Comparative Analysis: Potential Barriers to Career Participation by North American Physicians in Global Health

PubMed Central

Rhee, Daniel S.; Heckman, Jennifer E.

2014-01-01

Physician interest in global health, particularly among family physicians, is reflected by an increasing proliferation of field training and service experiences. However, translating initial training involvement into a defined and sustainable global health career remains difficult and beset by numerous barriers. Existing global health literature has largely examined training experiences and related ethical considerations while neglecting the role of career development in global health. To explore this, this paper extrapolates potential barriers to global health career involvement from existing literature and compares these to salary and skills requirements for archetypal physician positions in global health, presenting a framework of possible barriers to sustained physician participation in global health work. Notable barriers identified include financial limitations, scheduling conflicts, security/family concerns, skills limitations, limited awareness of opportunities, and specialty choice, with family practice often closely aligned with global health experience. Proposed solutions include financial support, protected time, family relocation support, and additional training. This framework delineates barriers to career involvement in global health by physicians. Further research regarding these barriers as well as potential solutions may help direct policy and initiatives to better utilize physicians, particularly family physicians, as a valuable global health human resource. PMID:25405030

Coupled Climate Model Simulations to Bracket the Impacts of Increasing Asian Aerosols Emissions and Aggressive Future Clean Air Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Zhang, Y.; Sun, S.; Olsen, S.; Dean, S.; Bleck, R.; Chylek, P.; Lohmann, U.

2007-12-01

We report ensemble simulations of the climatic impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols (sulfate, organic and black carbon), which bracket two policy scenarios: increased emissions over China and India by a factor of three over current levels and a global reduction of aerosols by a factor of ten, using the NCAR-CCSM3 and NASA- GISS coupled ocean atmosphere models. Tripling the anthropogenic aerosols over China and India has a small cooling effect (about -0.12°C) on the global mean surface air temperature with a slight reduction in global mean precipitation by ~ -0.8%. On the other hand, global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols by a factor of ten would warm the global surface temperatures by 0.4 °C - 0.8 °C in less than 10 years after the reduction takes place as well as an increase in global precipitation by 3.0% - 3.3%. Comparisons of NCAR and NASA model simulations also suggest that the indirect effects of aerosols are about 1-2 times the direct effects of aerosols. Tripling Asian anthropogenic aerosols results in regional cooling and a reduction in precipitation primarily in Asia, with cooling (warming) also noted over the high latitudes of Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Warming and increase in precipitation in the case of global reduction of aerosols are concentrated mainly over polluted land areas in both hemispheres. Tropical regions experience large changes in precipitation in both scenarios. We provide new insights into the climate model sensitivities of global mean temperatures and rainfall to aerosol forcing. Our results underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas accumulation rates as the world reduces air pollution to improve human health and that potential increased Asian pollution, offsets only a small fraction of the warming by greenhouse gases.

76 FR 15249 - Deferral for CO2

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-21

... Agency FR Federal Register GHG Greenhouse gas GWP Global warming potential HFC Hydrofluorocarbon ICR... year, weighted by the global warming potential (GWP) of the particular GHG pollutant, normalized to the... global GHG. Carbon dioxide emissions from a subset of bioenergy sources are reported as information items...

Scientific Challenges in Sustainable Energy Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Nathan

2006-03-01

This presentation will describe and evaluate the challenges, both technical, political, and economic, involved with widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies. First, we estimate the available fossil fuel resources and reserves based on data from the World Energy Assessment and World Energy Council. In conjunction with the current and projected global primary power production rates, we then estimate the remaining years of supply of oil, gas, and coal for use in primary power production. We then compare the price per unit of energy of these sources to those of renewable energy technologies (wind, solar thermal, solar electric, biomass, hydroelectric, and geothermal) to evaluate the degree to which supply/demand forces stimulate a transition to renewable energy technologies in the next 20-50 years. Secondly, we evaluate the greenhouse gas buildup limitations on carbon-based power consumption as an unpriced externality to fossil-fuel consumption, considering global population growth, increased global gross domestic product, and increased energy efficiency per unit of globally averaged GDP, as produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A greenhouse gas constraint on total carbon emissions, in conjunction with global population growth, is projected to drive the demand for carbon-free power well beyond that produced by conventional supply/demand pricing tradeoffs, at potentially daunting levels relative to current renewable energy demand levels. Thirdly, we evaluate the level and timescale of R&D investment that is needed to produce the required quantity of carbon-free power by the 2050 timeframe, to support the expected global energy demand for carbon-free power. Fourth, we evaluate the energy potential of various renewable energy resources to ascertain which resources are adequately available globally to support the projected global carbon-free energy demand requirements. Fifth, we evaluate the challenges to the chemical sciences to enable the cost-effective production of carbon-free power on the needed scale by the 2050 timeframe. Finally, we discuss the effects of a change in primary power technology on the energy supply infrastructure and discuss the impact of such a change on the modes of energy consumption by the energy consumer and additional demands on the chemical sciences to support such a transition in energy supply.

A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact assessment.« less

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

PubMed

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

2015-08-01

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; ...

2015-08-25

In this paper, the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources are investigated by performing simulations using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module using only SW for irrigation is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumpingmore » scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of SW and GW for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting the potential to increase vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand across the world. Combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply, this may lead to severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for irrigation effects and irrigation sources in regional climate change impact assessment.« less

Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajželj, Bojana; Richards, Keith S.; Allwood, Julian M.; Smith, Pete; Dennis, John S.; Curmi, Elizabeth; Gilligan, Christopher A.

2014-10-01

Recent studies show that current trends in yield improvement will not be sufficient to meet projected global food demand in 2050, and suggest that a further expansion of agricultural area will be required. However, agriculture is the main driver of losses of biodiversity and a major contributor to climate change and pollution, and so further expansion is undesirable. The usual proposed alternative--intensification with increased resource use--also has negative effects. It is therefore imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland and without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Some authors have emphasized a role for sustainable intensification in closing global `yield gaps' between the currently realized and potentially achievable yields. However, in this paper we use a transparent, data-driven model, to show that even if yield gaps are closed, the projected demand will drive further agricultural expansion. There are, however, options for reduction on the demand side that are rarely considered. In the second part of this paper we quantify the potential for demand-side mitigation options, and show that improved diets and decreases in food waste are essential to deliver emissions reductions, and to provide global food security in 2050.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF INCREASED SOLAR UV-B ON GLOBAL PLANT PRODUCTIVITY

EPA Science Inventory

Ultraviolet-B radiation comprises only a small portion of the electromagnetic spectrum but has a disproportionately large photobiological effect. oth plants and animals are greatly affected by increases in UV-B radiation but there exists tremendous variability in the sensitivity ...

DISPOSITION OF BDE 47 IN DEVELOPING MICE

EPA Science Inventory

Despite its minor contribution to global PBDE production and usage, 2,2',4,4'tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE 47) is the dominant congener found in most biotic samples in North America. The majority of public health concern has focused on potential hazardous effects resulting from ...

Renormalization group flow of the Higgs potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gies, Holger; Sondenheimer, René

2018-01-01

We summarize results for local and global properties of the effective potential for the Higgs boson obtained from the functional renormalization group, which allows one to describe the effective potential as a function of both scalar field amplitude and renormalization group scale. This sheds light onto the limitations of standard estimates which rely on the identification of the two scales and helps in clarifying the origin of a possible property of meta-stability of the Higgs potential. We demonstrate that the inclusion of higher-dimensional operators induced by an underlying theory at a high scale (GUT or Planck scale) can relax the conventional lower bound on the Higgs mass derived from the criterion of absolute stability. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue `Higgs cosmology'.

Effect of heterogeneousatmospheric CO2 on simulated global carbon budget

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Zhen; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Ju, Weimin; Zhang, Xiuying

2013-01-01

The effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration have been a key focus in global change studies. As anthropological CO2 emissions substantially increase, the spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 should be considered to reduce the potential bias on C source and sink estimations. In this study, the global spatial–temporal patterns of near surface CO2 concentrations for the period 2003-2009 were established using the SCIAMACHY satellite observations and the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 field observations. With this CO2 data and the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), our estimation of the global mean annual NPP and NEP was 0.5% and 7% respectively which differs from the traditional C sequestration assessments. The Amazon, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Africa showed higher C sequestration than the traditional assessment, and the rest of the areas around the world showed slightly lower C sequestration than the traditional assessment. We find that the variability of NEP is less intense under heterogeneous CO2 pattern on a global scale. Further studies of the cause of CO2 variation and the interactions between natural and anthropogenic processes of C sequestration are needed.

Monitoring Agricultural Production in Primary Export Countries within the framework of the GEOGLAM Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Vermote, E.

2012-12-01

Up to date, reliable, global, information on crop production prospects is indispensible for informing and regulating grain markets and for instituting effective agricultural policies. The recent price surges in the global grain markets were in large part triggered by extreme weather events in primary grain export countries. These events raise important questions about the accuracy of current production forecasts and their role in market fluctuations, and highlight the deficiencies in the state of global agricultural monitoring. Satellite-based earth observations are increasingly utilized as a tool for monitoring agricultural production as they offer cost-effective, daily, global information on crop growth and extent and their utility for crop production forecasting has long been demonstrated. Within this context, the Group on Earth Observations developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative which was adopted by the G20 as part of the action plan on food price volatility and agriculture. The goal of GEOGLAM is to enhance agricultural production estimates through the use of Earth observations. This talk will explore the potential contribution of EO-based methods for improving the accuracy of early production estimates of main export countries within the framework of GEOGLAM.

Geographic and temporal dynamics of a global radiation and diversification in the killer whale.

PubMed

Morin, Phillip A; Parsons, Kim M; Archer, Frederick I; Ávila-Arcos, María C; Barrett-Lennard, Lance G; Dalla Rosa, Luciano; Duchêne, Sebastián; Durban, John W; Ellis, Graeme M; Ferguson, Steven H; Ford, John K; Ford, Michael J; Garilao, Cristina; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Kaschner, Kristin; Matkin, Craig O; Petersen, Stephen D; Robertson, Kelly M; Visser, Ingrid N; Wade, Paul R; Ho, Simon Y W; Foote, Andrew D

2015-08-01

Global climate change during the Late Pleistocene periodically encroached and then released habitat during the glacial cycles, causing range expansions and contractions in some species. These dynamics have played a major role in geographic radiations, diversification and speciation. We investigate these dynamics in the most widely distributed of marine mammals, the killer whale (Orcinus orca), using a global data set of over 450 samples. This marine top predator inhabits coastal and pelagic ecosystems ranging from the ice edge to the tropics, often exhibiting ecological, behavioural and morphological variation suggestive of local adaptation accompanied by reproductive isolation. Results suggest a rapid global radiation occurred over the last 350 000 years. Based on habitat models, we estimated there was only a 15% global contraction of core suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum, and the resources appeared to sustain a constant global effective female population size throughout the Late Pleistocene. Reconstruction of the ancestral phylogeography highlighted the high mobility of this species, identifying 22 strongly supported long-range dispersal events including interoceanic and interhemispheric movement. Despite this propensity for geographic dispersal, the increased sampling of this study uncovered very few potential examples of ancestral dispersal among ecotypes. Concordance of nuclear and mitochondrial data further confirms genetic cohesiveness, with little or no current gene flow among sympatric ecotypes. Taken as a whole, our data suggest that the glacial cycles influenced local populations in different ways, with no clear global pattern, but with secondary contact among lineages following long-range dispersal as a potential mechanism driving ecological diversification. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of environmental impact produced by different economic activities with the global pollution index.

PubMed

Zaharia, Carmen

2012-07-01

The paper analyses the environment pollution state in different case studies of economic activities (i.e. co-generation electric and thermal power production, iron profile manufacturing, cement processing, waste landfilling, and wood furniture manufacturing), evaluating mainly the environmental cumulative impacts (e.g. cumulative impact against the health of the environment and different life forms). The status of the environment (air, water resources, soil, and noise) is analysed with respect to discharges such as gaseous discharges in the air, final effluents discharged in natural receiving basins or sewerage system, and discharges onto the soil together with the principal pollutants expressed by different environmental indicators corresponding to each specific productive activity. The alternative methodology of global pollution index (I (GP)*) for quantification of environmental impacts is applied. Environmental data analysis permits the identification of potential impact, prediction of significant impact, and evaluation of cumulative impact on a commensurate scale by evaluation scores (ES(i)) for discharge quality, and global effect to the environment pollution state by calculation of the global pollution index (I (GP)*). The I (GP)* values for each productive unit (i.e. 1.664-2.414) correspond to an 'environment modified by industrial/economic activity within admissible limits, having potential of generating discomfort effects'. The evaluation results are significant in view of future development of each productive unit and sustain the economic production in terms of environment protection with respect to a preventive environment protection scheme and continuous measures of pollution control.

Impact of Global Climate on Rift Valley Fever and other Vector-borne Disease Outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linthicum, K. J.

2017-12-01

Rift Valley fever is a viral disease of animals and humans in Africa and the Middle East that is transmitted by mosquitoes. Since the virus was first isolated in Kenya in 1930 it has caused significant impact to animal and human health and national economies, and it is of concern to the international agricultural and public health community. In this presentation we will describe the (1) ecology of disease transmission as it relates to climate, (2) the impact of climate and other environmental conditions on outbreaks, (3) the ability to use global climate information to predict outbreaks, (4) effective response activities, and (4) the potential to mitigate globalization.

Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective

PubMed Central

Carrasco, Luis R.; Lee, Vernon J.; Chen, Mark I.; Matchar, David B.; Thompson, James P.; Cook, Alex R.

2011-01-01

Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic–economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries. PMID:21296791

Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.

PubMed

Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex R

2011-09-07

Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.

Leveraging non-binding instruments for global health governance: reflections from the Global AIDS Reporting Mechanism for WHO reform.

PubMed

Taylor, A L; Alfven, T; Hougendobler, D; Tanaka, S; Buse, K

2014-02-01

As countries contend with an increasingly complex global environment with direct implications for population health, the international community is seeking novel mechanisms to incentivize coordinated national and international action towards shared health goals. Binding legal instruments have garnered increasing attention since the World Health Organization adopted its first convention in 2003. This paper seeks to expand the discourse on future global health lawmaking by exploring the potential value of non-binding instruments in global health governance, drawing on the case of the 2001 United Nations General Assembly Special Session Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS. In other realms of international concern ranging from the environment to human rights to arms control, non-binding instruments are increasingly used as effective instruments of international cooperation. The experience of the Global AIDS Reporting Mechanism, established pursuant to the Declaration, evidences that, at times, non-binding legal instruments can offer benefits over slower, more rigid binding legal approaches to governance. The global AIDS response has demonstrated that the use of a non-binding instrument can be remarkably effective in galvanizing increasingly deep commitments, action, reporting compliance and ultimately accountability for results. Based on this case, the authors argued that non-binding instruments deserve serious consideration by the international community for the future of global health governance, including in the context of WHO reform. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A global network topology of stock markets: Transmitters and receivers of spillover effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Hernandez, Jose Areola; Rehman, Mobeen Ur; Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed; Zakaria, Muhammad

2018-02-01

This paper applies a bivariate cross-quantilogram approach to examine the spillover network structure in the stock markets of 58 countries according to bearish, normal and bullish market scenarios. Our aim is to identify the strongest interdependencies, the directionality of the spillover risk effects, and to detect those equity markets with the potential to cause global systemic risk. The results highlight the role of the US and Canadian equity markets as major spillover transmitters, while the stock markets of Romania, Taiwan and Mexico act mainly as spillover receivers. Particularly strong spillovers are observed from the Canadian and US equity markets towards the Irish market, and from the Brazilian equity market towards the Kenyan equivalent. The equity market networks suggest that only the US equity market can trigger systemic risk on a global scale. Implications of the results are discussed.

Generation of political priority for global surgery: a qualitative policy analysis.

PubMed

Shawar, Yusra Ribhi; Shiffman, Jeremy; Spiegel, David A

2015-08-01

Despite the high burden of surgical conditions, the provision of surgical services has been a low global health priority. We examined factors that have shaped priority for global surgical care. We undertook semi-structured interviews by telephone with members of global surgical networks and ministries of health to explore the challenges and opportunities surgeons, anaesthesiologists, and other proponents face in increasing global priority for surgery. We did a literature review and collected information from reports from organisations involved in surgery. We used a policy framework consisting of four categories-actor power, ideas, political contexts, and characteristics of the issue itself-to analyse factors that have shaped global political priority for surgery. We did a thematic analysis on the collected information. Several factors hinder the acquisition of attention and resources for global surgery. With respect to actor power, the global surgery community is fragmented, does not have unifying leadership, and is missing guiding institutions. Regarding ideas, community members disagree on how to address and publicly position the problem. With respect to political contexts, the community has made insufficient efforts to capitalise on political opportunities such as the Millennium Development Goals. Regarding issue characteristics, data on the burden of surgical diseases are limited and public misperceptions surrounding the cost and complexity of surgery are widespread. However, the community has several strengths that portend well for the acquisition of political support. These include the existence of networks deeply committed to the cause, the potential to link with global health priorities, and emerging research on the cost-effectiveness of some procedures. To improve global priority for surgery, proponents will need to create an effective governance structure that facilitates achievement of collective goals, generate consensus on solutions, and find an effective public positioning of the issue that attracts political support. None. Copyright © 2015 Shawar et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Developed-developing country partnerships: Benefits to developed countries?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Developing countries can generate effective solutions for today’s global health challenges. This paper reviews relevant literature to construct the case for international cooperation, and in particular, developed-developing country partnerships. Standard database and web-based searches were conducted for publications in English between 1990 and 2010. Studies containing full or partial data relating to international cooperation between developed and developing countries were retained for further analysis. Of 227 articles retained through initial screening, 65 were included in the final analysis. The results were two-fold: some articles pointed to intangible benefits accrued by developed country partners, but the majority of information pointed to developing country innovations that can potentially inform health systems in developed countries. This information spanned all six WHO health system components. Ten key health areas where developed countries have the most to learn from the developing world were identified and include, rural health service delivery; skills substitution; decentralisation of management; creative problem-solving; education in communicable disease control; innovation in mobile phone use; low technology simulation training; local product manufacture; health financing; and social entrepreneurship. While there are no guarantees that innovations from developing country experiences can effectively transfer to developed countries, combined developed-developing country learning processes can potentially generate effective solutions for global health systems. However, the global pool of knowledge in this area is virgin and further work needs to be undertaken to advance understanding of health innovation diffusion. Even more urgently, a standardized method for reporting partnership benefits is needed—this is perhaps the single most immediate need in planning for, and realizing, the full potential of international cooperation between developed and developing countries. PMID:22709651

Effects of screenhouse cultivation and organic materials incorporation on global warming potential in rice fields.

PubMed

Xu, Guochun; Liu, Xin; Wang, Qiangsheng; Xiong, Ruiheng; Hang, Yuhao

2017-03-01

Global rice production will be increasingly challenged by providing healthy food for a growing population at minimal environmental cost. In this study, a 2-year field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of a novel rice cultivation mode (screenhouse cultivation, SHC) and organic material (OM) incorporation (wheat straw and wheat straw-based biogas residue) on methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and rice yields. In addition, the environmental factors and soil properties were also determined. Relative to the traditional open-field cultivation (OFC), SHC decreased the CH 4 and N 2 O emissions by 6.58-18.73 and 2.51-21.35%, respectively, and the global warming potential (GWP) was reduced by 6.49-18.65%. This trend was mainly because of lower soil temperature and higher soil redox potential in SHC. Although the rice grain yield for SHC were reduced by 2.51-4.98% compared to the OFC, the CH 4 emissions and GWP per unit of grain yield (yield-scaled CH 4 emissions and GWP) under SHC were declined. Compared to use of inorganic fertilizer only (IN), combining inorganic fertilizer with wheat straw (WS) or wheat straw-based biogas residue (BR) improved rice grain yield by 2.12-4.10 and 4.68-5.89%, respectively. However, OM incorporation enhanced CH 4 emissions and GWP, leading to higher yield-scaled CH 4 emissions and GWP in WS treatment. Due to rice yield that is relatively high, there was no obvious effect of BR treatment on them. These findings suggest that apparent environmental benefit can be realized by applying SHC and fermenting straw aerobically before its incorporation.

Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems: Predictions of seasonal and cumulative effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinus, R. W.; Roddy, D. J.

1988-01-01

The physical effects of certain large events, such as giant impacts, explosive volcanism, or combined nuclear explosions, have the potential of inducing global catastrophes in our terrestrial environment. Such highly energetic events can inject substantial quantities of material into the atmosphere. In turn, this changes the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and modifies atmospheric temperatures to produce a wide range of global effects. One consequence is the introduction of serious stresses in both plants and animals throughout the Earth's biosphere. For example, recent studies predict that forest lands, crop lands, and range lands would suffer specific physical and biological degradations if major physical and chemical disruptions occurred in our atmosphere. Forests, which cover over 4 times 10 to the 9th power hectares (4 times 10 to the 7th power sq km) of our planet, or about 3 times the area now cultivated for crops, are critical to many processes in the biosphere. Forests contribute heavily to the production of atmospheric oxygen, supply the major volume of biomass, and provide a significant percentage of plant and animal habitats.

Increasing global agricultural production by reducing ozone damages via methane emission controls and ozone-resistant cultivar selection

PubMed Central

Avnery, Shiri; Mauzerall, Denise L; Fiore, Arlene M

2013-01-01

Meeting the projected 50% increase in global grain demand by 2030 without further environmental degradation poses a major challenge for agricultural production. Because surface ozone (O3) has a significant negative impact on crop yields, one way to increase future production is to reduce O3-induced agricultural losses. We present two strategies whereby O3 damage to crops may be reduced. We first examine the potential benefits of an O3 mitigation strategy motivated by climate change goals: gradual emission reductions of methane (CH4), an important greenhouse gas and tropospheric O3 precursor that has not yet been targeted for O3 pollution abatement. Our second strategy focuses on adapting crops to O3 exposure by selecting cultivars with demonstrated O3 resistance. We find that the CH4 reductions considered would increase global production of soybean, maize, and wheat by 23–102 Mt in 2030 – the equivalent of a ∼2–8% increase in year 2000 production worth $3.5–15 billion worldwide (USD2000), increasing the cost effectiveness of this CH4 mitigation policy. Choosing crop varieties with O3 resistance (relative to median-sensitivity cultivars) could improve global agricultural production in 2030 by over 140 Mt, the equivalent of a 12% increase in 2000 production worth ∼$22 billion. Benefits are dominated by improvements for wheat in South Asia, where O3-induced crop losses would otherwise be severe. Combining the two strategies generates benefits that are less than fully additive, given the nature of O3 effects on crops. Our results demonstrate the significant potential to sustainably improve global agricultural production by decreasing O3-induced reductions in crop yields. PMID:23504903

Functional hemispheric asymmetries of global/local processing mirrored by the steady-state visual evoked potential.

PubMed

Martens, Ulla; Hübner, Ronald

2013-03-01

While hemispheric differences in global/local processing have been reported by various studies, it is still under dispute at which processing stage they occur. Primarily, it was assumed that these asymmetries originate from an early perceptual stage. Instead, the content-level binding theory (Hübner & Volberg, 2005) suggests that the hemispheres differ at a later stage at which the stimulus information is bound to its respective level. The present study tested this assumption by means of steady-state evoked potentials (SSVEPs). In particular, we presented hierarchical letters flickering at 12Hz while participants categorised the letters at a pre- cued level (global or local). The information at the two levels could be congruent or incongruent with respect to the required response. Since content-binding is only necessary if there is a response conflict, asymmetric hemispheric processing should be observed only for incongruent stimuli. Indeed, our results show that the cue and congruent stimuli elicited equal SSVEP global/local effects in both hemispheres. In contrast, incongruent stimuli elicited lower SSVEP amplitudes for a local than for a global target level at left posterior electrodes, whereas a reversed pattern was seen at right hemispheric electrodes. These findings provide further evidence for a level-specific hemispheric advantage with respect to content-level binding. Moreover, the fact that the SSVEP is sensitive to these processes offers the possibility to separately track global and local processing by presenting both level contents with different frequencies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The In Vitro Mass-Produced Model Mycorrhizal Fungus, Rhizophagus irregularis, Significantly Increases Yields of the Globally Important Food Security Crop Cassava

PubMed Central

Ceballos, Isabel; Ruiz, Michael; Fernández, Cristhian; Peña, Ricardo

2013-01-01

The arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is formed between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and plant roots. The fungi provide the plant with inorganic phosphate (P). The symbiosis can result in increased plant growth. Although most global food crops naturally form this symbiosis, very few studies have shown that their practical application can lead to large-scale increases in food production. Application of AMF to crops in the tropics is potentially effective for improving yields. However, a main problem of using AMF on a large-scale is producing cheap inoculum in a clean sterile carrier and sufficiently concentrated to cheaply transport. Recently, mass-produced in vitro inoculum of the model mycorrhizal fungus Rhizophagus irregularis became available, potentially making its use viable in tropical agriculture. One of the most globally important food plants in the tropics is cassava. We evaluated the effect of in vitro mass-produced R. irregularis inoculum on the yield of cassava crops at two locations in Colombia. A significant effect of R. irregularis inoculation on yield occurred at both sites. At one site, yield increases were observed irrespective of P fertilization. At the other site, inoculation with AMF and 50% of the normally applied P gave the highest yield. Despite that AMF inoculation resulted in greater food production, economic analyses revealed that AMF inoculation did not give greater return on investment than with conventional cultivation. However, the amount of AMF inoculum used was double the recommended dose and was calculated with European, not Colombian, inoculum prices. R. irregularis can also be manipulated genetically in vitro, leading to improved plant growth. We conclude that application of in vitro R. irregularis is currently a way of increasing cassava yields, that there is a strong potential for it to be economically profitable and that there is enormous potential to improve this efficiency further in the future. PMID:23950975

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

The Army’s Carbon Bootprint

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-06

GWP relative to CO2 • GWP is determined by stability of the chemical in the atmosphere and its capacity to influence global warming Global Warming Potential...GWP) Mr. Larry Webber/(410)436-1231/ Lawrence.webber.us.army.mil 06MAY2009 The Army’s Carbon Bootprint Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Global Warming Potential

Derivation of an optical potential for statically deformed rare-earth nuclei from a global spherical potential

DOE PAGES

Nobre, G. P. A.; Palumbo, A.; Herman, M.; ...

2015-02-25

The coupled-channel theory is a natural way of treating nonelastic channels, in particular those arising from collective excitations characterized by nuclear deformations. A proper treatment of such excitations is often essential to the accurate description of experimental nuclear-reaction data and to the prediction of a wide variety of scattering observables. Stimulated by recent work substantiating the near validity of the adiabatic approximation in coupled-channel calculations for scattering on statically deformed nuclei, we explore the possibility of generalizing a global spherical optical model potential (OMP) to make it usable in coupled-channel calculations on this class of nuclei. To do this, wemore » have deformed the Koning-Delaroche global spherical potential for neutrons, coupling a sufficient number of states of the ground state band to ensure convergence. We present an extensive study of the effects of collective couplings and nuclear deformations on integrated cross sections as well as on angular distributions for neutron-induced reactions on statically deformed nuclei in the rare-earth region. We choose isotopes of three rare-earth elements (Gd, Ho, W), which are known to be nearly perfect rotors, to exemplify the results of the proposed method. Predictions from our model for total, elastic and inelastic cross sections, as well as for elastic and inelastic angular distributions, are in reasonable agreement with measured experimental data. In conclusion, these results suggest that the deformed Koning-Delaroche potential provides a useful regional neutron optical potential for the statically deformed rare earth nuclei.« less

Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir

Treesearch

Connie Harrington; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

2010-01-01

Most temperate woody plants have a winter chilling requirement to prevent budburst during midwinter periods of warm weather. The date of spring budburst is dependent on both chilling and forcing; modeling this date is an important part of predicting potential effects of global warming on trees. There is no clear evidence from the literature that the curves of chilling...

Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how California’s environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...

Effects of Age, Gender, School Class on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Skills of Nigerian Secondary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Onyeaso, Adedamola Olutoyin; Onyeaso, Chukwudi Ochi

2016-01-01

Background: The need for training of schoolchildren on cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) as potential bystander CPR providers is growing globally but Nigeria is still behind and lacks basic necessary data. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of age, gender and school class on CPR skills of Nigerian secondary school…

Keeping your seed head above water - EPA's research on the effects of sea level rise on sea grasses and emergent marshes in the Pacific Northwest

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR), will have profound effects on estuarine fish, shellfish, and wildlife populations and their habitats. To develop an understanding of these potential impacts, the U.S. EPA at Newport, Oregon is participating in a joint researc...

Tobacco industry globalization and global health governance: towards an interdisciplinary research agenda

PubMed Central

Lee, Kelley; Eckhardt, Jappe; Holden, Chris

2016-01-01

Shifting patterns of tobacco production and consumption, and the resultant disease burden worldwide since the late twentieth century, prompted efforts to strengthen global health governance through adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. While the treaty is rightfully considered an important achievement, to address a neglected public health issue through collective action, evidence suggests that tobacco industry globalization continues apace. In this article, we provide a systematic review of the public health literature and reveal definitional and measurement imprecision, ahistorical timeframes, transnational tobacco companies and the state as the primary units and levels of analysis, and a strong emphasis on agency as opposed to structural power. Drawing on the study of globalization in international political economy and business studies, we identify opportunities to expand analysis along each of these dimensions. We conclude that this expanded and interdisciplinary research agenda provides the potential for fuller understanding of the dual and dynamic relationship between the tobacco industry and globalization. Deeper analysis of how the industry has adapted to globalization over time, as well as how the industry has influenced the nature and trajectory of globalization, is essential for building effective global governance responses. This article is published as part of a thematic collection dedicated to global governance. PMID:28458910

Tobacco industry globalization and global health governance: towards an interdisciplinary research agenda.

PubMed

Lee, Kelley; Eckhardt, Jappe; Holden, Chris

2016-01-01

Shifting patterns of tobacco production and consumption, and the resultant disease burden worldwide since the late twentieth century, prompted efforts to strengthen global health governance through adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. While the treaty is rightfully considered an important achievement, to address a neglected public health issue through collective action, evidence suggests that tobacco industry globalization continues apace. In this article, we provide a systematic review of the public health literature and reveal definitional and measurement imprecision, ahistorical timeframes, transnational tobacco companies and the state as the primary units and levels of analysis, and a strong emphasis on agency as opposed to structural power. Drawing on the study of globalization in international political economy and business studies, we identify opportunities to expand analysis along each of these dimensions. We conclude that this expanded and interdisciplinary research agenda provides the potential for fuller understanding of the dual and dynamic relationship between the tobacco industry and globalization. Deeper analysis of how the industry has adapted to globalization over time, as well as how the industry has influenced the nature and trajectory of globalization, is essential for building effective global governance responses. This article is published as part of a thematic collection dedicated to global governance.

Synergy of rising nitrogen depositions and atmospheric CO2 on land carbon uptake moderately offsets global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, Galina; Brovkin, Victor; von Bloh, Werner; Trusilova, Kristina; Jung, Martin; Dentener, Frank

2009-12-01

Increased carbon uptake of land in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition could slow down the rate of CO2 increase and facilitate climate change mitigation. Using a coupled model of climate, ocean, and land biogeochemistry, we show that atmospheric nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO2 have a strong synergistic effect on the carbon uptake of land. Our best estimate of the global land carbon uptake in the 1990s is 1.34 PgC/yr. The synergistic effect could explain 47% of this carbon uptake, which is higher than either the effect of increasing nitrogen deposition (29%) or CO2 fertilization (24%). By 2030, rising carbon uptake on land has a potential to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 41 ppm out of which 16 ppm reduction would come from the synergetic response of land to the CO2 and nitrogen fertilization effects. The strength of the synergy depends largely on the cooccurrence of high nitrogen deposition regions with nonagricultural ecosystems. Our study suggests that reforestation and sensible ecosystem management in industrialized regions may have larger potential for climate change mitigation than anticipated.

Integrative medical therapy: examination of meditation's therapeutic and global medicinal outcomes via nitric oxide (review).

PubMed

Stefano, George B; Esch, Tobias

2005-10-01

Relaxation techniques are part of the integrative medicine movement that is of growing importance for mainstream medicine. Complementary medical therapies have the potential to affect many physiological systems. Repeatedly studies show the benefits of the placebo response and relaxation techniques in the treatment of hypertension, cardiac arrhythmias, chronic pain, insomnia, anxiety and mild and moderate depression, premenstrual syndrome, and infertility. In itself, relaxation is characterized by a decreased metabolism, heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing as well as an increase in skin temperature. Relaxation approaches, such as progressive muscle relaxation, autogenic training, meditation and biofeedback, are effective in lowering systolic and diastolic blood pressure in hypertensive patients by a significant margin. Given this association with changes in vascular tone, we have hypothesized that nitric oxide, a demonstrated vasodilator substance, contribute to physiological activity of relaxation approaches. We examined the scientific literature concerning the disorders noted earlier for their nitric oxide involvement in an attempt to provide a molecular rationale for the positive effects of relaxation approaches, which are physiological and cognitive process. We conclude that constitutive nitric oxide may crucially contribute to potentially beneficial outcomes and effects in diverse pathologies, exerting a global healing effect.

Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dochinger, Leon S.; Seliga, Thomas A.

1975-01-01

The First International Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the Forest Ecosystem dealt with the potential magnitude of the global effects of acid precipitation on aquatic ecosystems, forest soils, and forest vegetation. The problem is discussed in the light of atmospheric chemistry, transport, and precipitation. (Author/BT)

Emerging contaminants and their potential effects on amphibians and reptiles

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Serious threats to the health and sustainability of global amphibian populations have been well documented over the last few decades. Encroachment upon and destruction of primary habitat is the most critical threat, but some species have disappeared while their habitat remains. Additional stressor...

Global Cryptosporidium Loads from Livestock Manure

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding the environmental pathways of Cryptosporidium is essential for effective management of human and animal cryptosporidiosis. In this paper we aim to quantify livestock Cryptosporidium spp. loads to land on a global scale using spatially explicit process-based modeling, and to explore the effect of manure storage and treatment on oocyst loads using scenario analysis. Our model GloWPa-Crypto L1 calculates a total global Cryptosporidium spp. load from livestock manure of 3.2 × 1023 oocysts per year. Cattle, especially calves, are the largest contributors, followed by chickens and pigs. Spatial differences are linked to animal spatial distributions. North America, Europe, and Oceania together account for nearly a quarter of the total oocyst load, meaning that the developing world accounts for the largest share. GloWPa-Crypto L1 is most sensitive to oocyst excretion rates, due to large variation reported in literature. We compared the current situation to four alternative management scenarios. We find that although manure storage halves oocyst loads, manure treatment, especially of cattle manure and particularly at elevated temperatures, has a larger load reduction potential than manure storage (up to 4.6 log units). Regions with high reduction potential include India, Bangladesh, western Europe, China, several countries in Africa, and New Zealand. PMID:28654242

Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change

PubMed Central

Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H.; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

2016-01-01

Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

Good and Bad Research Collaborations: Researchers' Views on Science and Ethics in Global Health Research.

PubMed

Parker, Michael; Kingori, Patricia

2016-01-01

There has been a dramatic rise in the scale and scope of collaborative global health research. A number of structural and scientific factors explain this growth and there has been much discussion of these in the literature. Little, if any, attention has been paid, however, to the factors identified by scientists and other research actors as important to successful research collaboration. This is surprising given that their decisions are likely to play a key role in the sustainability and effectiveness of global health research initiatives. In this paper, we report on qualitative research with leading scientists involved in major international research collaborations about their views on good and bad collaborations and the factors that inform their decision-making about joining and participating actively in research networks. We identify and discuss eight factors that researchers see as essential in judging the merits of active participation in global health research collaborations: opportunities for active involvement in cutting-edge, interesting science; effective leadership; competence of potential partners in and commitment to good scientific practice; capacity building; respect for the needs, interests and agendas of partners; opportunities for discussion and disagreement; trust and confidence; and, justice and fairness in collaboration. Our findings suggest that the sustainability and effectiveness of global health research collaborations has an important ethical or moral dimension for the research actors involved.

Good and Bad Research Collaborations: Researchers’ Views on Science and Ethics in Global Health Research

PubMed Central

Parker, Michael; Kingori, Patricia

2016-01-01

There has been a dramatic rise in the scale and scope of collaborative global health research. A number of structural and scientific factors explain this growth and there has been much discussion of these in the literature. Little, if any, attention has been paid, however, to the factors identified by scientists and other research actors as important to successful research collaboration. This is surprising given that their decisions are likely to play a key role in the sustainability and effectiveness of global health research initiatives. In this paper, we report on qualitative research with leading scientists involved in major international research collaborations about their views on good and bad collaborations and the factors that inform their decision-making about joining and participating actively in research networks. We identify and discuss eight factors that researchers see as essential in judging the merits of active participation in global health research collaborations: opportunities for active involvement in cutting-edge, interesting science; effective leadership; competence of potential partners in and commitment to good scientific practice; capacity building; respect for the needs, interests and agendas of partners; opportunities for discussion and disagreement; trust and confidence; and, justice and fairness in collaboration. Our findings suggest that the sustainability and effectiveness of global health research collaborations has an important ethical or moral dimension for the research actors involved. PMID:27737006

Quantification of effective plant rooting depth: advancing global hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; McVicar, T.

2017-12-01

Plant rooting depth (Zr) is a key parameter in hydrological and biogeochemical models, yet the global spatial distribution of Zr is largely unknown due to the difficulties in its direct measurement. Moreover, Zr observations are usually only representative of a single plant or several plants, which can differ greatly from the effective Zr over a modelling unit (e.g., catchment or grid-box). Here, we provide a global parameterization of an analytical Zr model that balances the marginal carbon cost and benefit of deeper roots, and produce a climatological (i.e., 1982-2010 average) global Zr map. To test the Zr estimates, we apply the estimated Zr in a highly transparent hydrological model (i.e., the Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (BCP) model) to estimate mean annual actual evapotranspiration (E) across the globe. We then compare the estimated E with both water balance-based E observations at 32 major catchments and satellite grid-box retrievals across the globe. Our results show that the BCP model, when implemented with Zr estimated herein, optimally reproduced the spatial pattern of E at both scales and provides improved model outputs when compared to BCP model results from two already existing global Zr datasets. These results suggest that our Zr estimates can be effectively used in state-of-the-art hydrological models, and potentially biogeochemical models, where the determination of Zr currently largely relies on biome type-based look-up tables.

Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

2014-05-01

Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

Used planet: a global history.

PubMed

Ellis, Erle C; Kaplan, Jed O; Fuller, Dorian Q; Vavrus, Steve; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Verburg, Peter H

2013-05-14

Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet's history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human-environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects.

Continental scale data assimilation of discharge and its effect on flow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; van Dijk, Albert

2017-04-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist (Emmerton et al., 2016). Current global flood forecasting system heavily rely on forecast forcing (precipitation, temperature, reference potential evaporation) to derive initial state estimates of the hydrological model for the next forecast (e.g. by glueing the first day of subsequent forecast as proxy for the historical observed forcing). It is clear that this approach is not perfect and that data assimilation can help to overcome some of the weaknesses of this approach. So far most hydrologic da studies have focused mostly on catchment scale. Here we conduct a da experiment by assimilating multiple streamflow observations across the contiguous united states (CONUS) and Europe into a global hydrological model (W3RA) and run with and without localization method using OpenDA in the global flood forecasting information system (GLOFFIS). It is shown that assimilation of streamflow holds considerable potential for improving global scale flood forecasting (improving NSE scores from 0 to 0.7 and beyond). Weakness in the model (e.g. structural problems and missing processes) and forcing that influence the performance will be highlighted.

Continental scale data assimilation of discharge and its effect on flow predictions across the contiguous US (CONUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, A.; Schellekens, J.; van Dijk, A.; Molenaar, R.

2016-12-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist (Emmerton et al., 2016). Current global flood forecasting system heavily rely on forecast forcing (precipitation, temperature, reference potential evaporation) to derive initial state estimates of the hydrological model for the next forecast (e.g. by glueing the first day of subsequent forecast as proxy for the historical observed forcing). It is clear that this approach is not perfect and that data assimilation can help to overcome some of the weaknesses of this approach. So far most hydrologic da studies have focused mostly on catchment scale. Here we conduct a da experiment by assimilating multiple streamflow observations across the contiguous united states (CONUS) into a global hydrological model (W3RA) and run with and without localization method using OpenDA in the global flood forecasting information system (GLOFFIS). It is shown that assimilation of streamflow holds considerable potential for improving global scale flood forecasting (improving NSE scores from 0 to 0.7 and beyond). Weakness in the model (e.g. structural problems and missing processes) and forcing that influence the performance will be highlighted.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Used planet: A global history

PubMed Central

Ellis, Erle C.; Kaplan, Jed O.; Fuller, Dorian Q.; Vavrus, Steve; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Verburg, Peter H.

2013-01-01

Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planet's history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human–environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects. PMID:23630271

Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide.

PubMed

Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W R; Bange, Hermann W

2012-05-05

We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N(2)O and N(2)O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N(2)O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N(2)O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N(2)O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N(2)O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N(2)O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr(-1). This is in agreement with estimates of the global N(2)O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N(2)O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N(2)O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed.

Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Francisco; Afán, Isabel; Davis, Lloyd S.; Chiaradia, André

2017-01-01

Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment. We combined information on marine biodiversity with spatial assessments of the impacts of climate change to identify the key areas to prioritize for the conservation of global marine biodiversity. This process identified six marine regions of exceptional biodiversity based on global distributions of 1729 species of fish, 124 marine mammals, and 330 seabirds. Overall, these hot spots of marine biodiversity coincide with areas most severely affected by global warming. In particular, these marine biodiversity hot spots have undergone local to regional increasing water temperatures, slowing current circulation, and decreasing primary productivity. Furthermore, when we overlapped these hot spots with available industrial fishery data, albeit coarser than our estimates of climate impacts, they suggest a worrying coincidence whereby the world’s richest areas for marine biodiversity are also those areas mostly affected by both climate change and industrial fishing. In light of these findings, we offer an adaptable framework for determining local to regional areas of special concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity. This has exposed the need for finer-scaled fishery data to assist in the management of global fisheries if the accumulative, but potentially preventable, effect of fishing on climate change impacts is to be minimized within areas prioritized for marine biodiversity conservation. PMID:28261659

Soil microbial communities drive the resistance of ecosystem multifunctionality to global change in drylands across the globe.

PubMed

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Eldridge, David J; Ochoa, Victoria; Gozalo, Beatriz; Singh, Brajesh K; Maestre, Fernando T

2017-10-01

The relationship between soil microbial communities and the resistance of multiple ecosystem functions linked to C, N and P cycling (multifunctionality resistance) to global change has never been assessed globally in natural ecosystems. We collected soils from 59 dryland ecosystems worldwide to investigate the importance of microbial communities as predictor of multifunctionality resistance to climate change and nitrogen fertilisation. Multifunctionality had a lower resistance to wetting-drying cycles than to warming or N deposition. Multifunctionality resistance was regulated by changes in microbial composition (relative abundance of phylotypes) but not by richness, total abundance of fungi and bacteria or the fungal: bacterial ratio. Our results suggest that positive effects of particular microbial taxa on multifunctionality resistance could potentially be controlled by altering soil pH. Together, our work demonstrates strong links between microbial community composition and multifunctionality resistance in dryland soils from six continents, and provides insights into the importance of microbial community composition for buffering effects of global change in drylands worldwide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate change mitigation: the potential of agriculture as a renewable energy source in Nigeria.

PubMed

Elum, Z A; Modise, D M; Nhamo, G

2017-02-01

Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.

Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia.

PubMed

Reyenga, P J; Howden, S M; Meinke, H; Hall, W B

2001-09-01

Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4 degrees C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+10% summer rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+1.8 degrees C, -8% annual rainfall) +700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed.

Rotationally adiabatic pair interactions of para- and ortho-hydrogen with the halogen molecules F2, Cl2, and Br2.

PubMed

Berg, Matthias; Accardi, Antonio; Paulus, Beate; Schmidt, Burkhard

2014-08-21

The present work is concerned with the weak interactions between hydrogen and halogen molecules, i.e., the interactions of pairs H2-X2 with X = F, Cl, Br, which are dominated by dispersion and quadrupole-quadrupole forces. The global minimum of the four-dimensional (4D) coupled cluster with singles and doubles and perturbative triples (CCSD(T)) pair potentials is always a T shaped structure where H2 acts as the hat of the T, with well depths (De) of 1.3, 2.4, and 3.1 kJ/mol for F2, Cl2, and Br2, respectively. MP2/AVQZ results, in reasonable agreement with CCSD(T) results extrapolated to the basis set limit, are used for detailed scans of the potentials. Due to the large difference in the rotational constants of the monomers, in the adiabatic approximation, one can solve the rotational Schrödinger equation for H2 in the potential of the X2 molecule. This yields effective two-dimensional rotationally adiabatic potential energy surfaces where pH2 and oH2 are point-like particles. These potentials for the H2-X2 complexes have global and local minima for effective linear and T-shaped complexes, respectively, which are separated by 0.4-1.0 kJ/mol, where oH2 binds stronger than pH2 to X2, due to higher alignment to minima structures of the 4D-pair potential. Further, we provide fits of an analytical function to the rotationally adiabatic potentials.

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Hal G.; Walker, James C. G.; Kuhn, William R.

1988-01-01

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

Examing the Effects of Different IMF, F10.7, and Auroral Inputs on the Thermospheric Neutral Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Y.; Ridley, A. J.

2003-12-01

To obtain a better understanding of how the magnetosphere effects the global thermospheric and ionospheric structure, we conduct some numerical experiments using the University of Michigan's Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM). We have run GITM to roughly steady-state using different strengths of the high-latitude electric potential pattern, F10.7, and auroral inputs to determine how these effect the temporal history and stead-state of the thermospheric neutral winds. Our model reproduces the well known fact that the neutral winds are strongly driven by the ion convection above approximately 300 km, and that the ramp-up time is very dependent upon the altitude. We show quantitative results of the ramp-up times and maximum neutral wind speeds for the different driving conditions.

Planetary opportunities in crop water management: Potential to outweigh cropland expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jägermeyr, Jonas; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang; Heinke, Jens

2014-05-01

Global available land and water resources probably cannot feed projected future human populations under current productivity levels. Moreover, the planetary boundaries of both land use change and water consumption are being approached rapidly, and at the same time competition between food production, bioenergy plantations and biodiversity conservation is increasing. Global cropland is expected to expand to meet future demands, while considerable yield gaps remain in many world regions. Yield increases in Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, are currently mainly based on expansion of arable land into currently non-agricultural areas - while small-scale irrigation and water conservancy methods are considered very promising to boost yields there. In the here presented modeling study we investigate, at global scale, to what degree different on-farm options to better manage green and blue water might contribute to a global crop yield increase under conditions of current climate and projected future climate change. We consider methods aiming for a maximization of crops' water use efficiency and an optimal use of available on-farm water (precipitation): reducing unproductive soil evaporation (vapor shift, VS), collecting surface runoff after rain events to mitigate subsequent dry-spells (rain-water harvesting, RWH), increasing irrigation efficiency, and expanding irrigated area into rain-fed cropland (based on water savings from higher efficiencies). Global yield simulations based on hypothetical scenarios of these management opportunities are performed with the LPJmL ecohydrological modeling framework driven by reanalysis data and GCM ensemble simulations. We consider a range of about 20 climate change projections to cover respective uncertainties, and we analyze the effects of increasing CO2 concentration on the crops and their water demand. Crops are represented in a process-based and dynamic way by 12 crop functional types, each for rain-fed and irrigated areas, with prescribed annual fractions of cropland per 0.5° x 0.5° grid cell. We recalculate from the yield increase how much cropland expansion can be avoided in 30-yr averages. Our results show that the studied affordable low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands can have a considerable effect on yields at the global scale. A simulated global ~15% yield increase from a low-intensity water management scenario (25% of runoff used for RWH, 25% of soil evaporation avoided to achieve VS, slight irrigation efficiency improvement) could outweigh, i.e. possibly avoid, an estimated 120 Mha of cropland expansion under current climatic conditions. A (rather theoretical) maximum-intensity water management scenario (85% VS, 85% RWH, surface irrigation replaced by sprinkler systems) shows the potential to increase global yields by more than 35% without expansion or withdrawing additional irrigation water. Climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but as we sow such adaptation opportunities have the potential to mitigate or compensate these impacts in many countries. Overall, proper water management (sustainably maximizing on-farm water use efficiency) can substantially increase global crop yields and at the same time relax rates of land cover conversion.

Communication and marketing as climate change-intervention assets a public health perspective.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2008-11-01

The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change.

77 FR 23209 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Delisting of Eastern DPS of Steller Sea Lions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-18

... five potential sources of threat under this factor: 1. Global Climate Warming and Ocean Acidification... 5. Oil and Gas Development. Global climate warming and ocean acidification pose a potential threat... information suggests it is likely that global warming and ocean acidification may affect eastern North Pacific...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart G of... - Substitutes Subject to Use Restrictions and Unacceptable Substitutes

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... characteristic of concern for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials. Although actual contributions to global warming depend upon the quantities of PFCs emitted, the... for PFCs is that they have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials. Although...

Economic analysis of the potential impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains: An appication of a nested multinomial logti model

Treesearch

Soeun Ahn; Joseph E. de Steiguer; Raymond B. Palmquist; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect through human activities has become a major public policy issue in recent years. The present study focuses on the potential economic impact of climate change on recreational trout fishing in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina. Significant reductions in trout habitat and/or populations are...

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

The Influence of Emission Location on the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Aerosols' Climate Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persad, G.; Caldeira, K.

2017-12-01

The global distribution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions has evolved continuously since the preindustrial era - from 20th century North American and Western European emissions hotspots to present-day South and East Asian ones. With this comes a relocation of the regional radiative, dynamical, and hydrological impacts of aerosol emissions, which may influence global climate differently depending on where they occur. A lack of understanding of this relationship between aerosol emissions' location and their global climate effects, however, obscures the potential influence that aerosols' evolving geographic distribution may have on global and regional climate change—a gap which we address in this work. Using a novel suite of experiments in the CESM CAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean, we systematically test and analyze mechanisms behind the relative climate impact of identical black carbon and sulfate aerosol emissions located in each of 8 past, present, or projected future major emissions regions. Results indicate that historically high emissions regions, such as North America and Western Europe, produce a stronger cooling effect than current and projected future high emissions regions. Aerosol emissions located in Western Europe produce 3 times the global mean cooling (-0.34 °C) as those located in East Africa or India (-0.11 °C). The aerosols' in-situ radiative effects remain relatively confined near the emissions region, but large distal cooling results from remote feedback processes - such as ice albedo and cloud changes - that are excited more strongly by emissions from certain regions than others. Results suggest that aerosol emissions from different countries should not be considered equal in the context of climate mitigation accounting, and that the evolving geographic distribution of aerosol emissions may have a substantial impact on the magnitude and spatial distribution of global climate change.

Big Data and the Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN)

PubMed Central

Dion, M; AbdelMalik, P; Mawudeku, A

2015-01-01

Background Globalization and the potential for rapid spread of emerging infectious diseases have heightened the need for ongoing surveillance and early detection. The Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN) was established to increase situational awareness and capacity for the early detection of emerging public health events. Objective To describe how the GPHIN has used Big Data as an effective early detection technique for infectious disease outbreaks worldwide and to identify potential future directions for the GPHIN. Findings Every day the GPHIN analyzes over more than 20,000 online news reports (over 30,000 sources) in nine languages worldwide. A web-based program aggregates data based on an algorithm that provides potential signals of emerging public health events which are then reviewed by a multilingual, multidisciplinary team. An alert is sent out if a potential risk is identified. This process proved useful during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak and was adopted shortly after by a number of countries to meet new International Health Regulations that require each country to have the capacity for early detection and reporting. The GPHIN identified the early SARS outbreak in China, was credited with the first alert on MERS-CoV and has played a significant role in the monitoring of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Future developments are being considered to advance the GPHIN’s capacity in light of other Big Data sources such as social media and its analytical capacity in terms of algorithm development. Conclusion The GPHIN’s early adoption of Big Data has increased global capacity to detect international infectious disease outbreaks and other public health events. Integration of additional Big Data sources and advances in analytical capacity could further strengthen the GPHIN’s capability for timely detection and early warning. PMID:29769954

Current and future effects of global change on a hotspot's freshwater diversity.

PubMed

Gallardo, Belinda; Bogan, Arthur E; Harun, Sahana; Jainih, Leonardo; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Pizarro, Manuel; Rahim, Khairul Adha; Sousa, Ronaldo; Virdis, Salvatore G P; Zieritz, Alexandra

2018-04-19

Deforestation, climate change and invasive species constitute three global threats to biodiversity that act synergistically. However, drivers and rates of loss of freshwater biodiversity now and in the future are poorly understood. Here we focus on the potential impacts of global change on freshwater mussels (Order Unionida) in Sundaland (SE Asia), a vulnerable group facing global declines and recognized indicators of overall freshwater biodiversity. We used an ensemble of distribution models to identify habitats potentially suitable for freshwater mussels and their change under a range of climate, deforestation and invasion scenarios. Our data and models revealed that, at present, Sundaland features 47 and 32 Mha of habitat that can be considered environmentally suitable for native and invasive freshwater mussels, respectively. We anticipate that by 2050, the area suitable for palm oil cultivation may expand between 8 and 44 Mha, representing an annual increase of 2-11%. This is expected to result in a 20% decrease in suitable habitat for native mussels, a drop that reaches 30% by 2050 when considering concomitant climate change. In contrast, the habitat potentially suitable for invasive mussels may increase by 44-56% under 2050 future scenarios. Consequently, native mussels may compete for habitat, food resources and fish hosts with invasive mussels across approximately 60% of their suitable range. Our projections can be used to guide future expeditions to monitor the conservation status of freshwater biodiversity, and potentially reveal populations of endemic species on the brink of extinction. Future conservation measures-most importantly the designation of nature reserves-should take into account trends in freshwater biodiversity generally, and particularly species such as freshwater mussels, vital to safeguard fundamental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of global climate change on maize volatile production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] are projected to have critical impacts on precipitation patterns, potentially leading to a dramatic increase in the frequency and duration of drought across the North American Corn Belt and other agriculturally relevant areas around the world (IPCC2007...

Evaluating the effect of microalgal biomass on soil-plant-water systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Exploring all possible applications of microalgal biomass is crucial to strengthen the current algal industry and reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture is a major global challenge. Microalgae can play a progressive role as they have the potential to improve soil structure, reduce erosion...

GPS disruptions : efforts to assess risks to critical infrastructure and coordinate agency actions should be enhanced.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

To assess the risks and potential effects from disruptions in the Global : Positioning System (GPS) on critical infrastructure, the Department of Homeland : Security (DHS) published the GPS National Risk Estimate (NRE) in 2012. In : doing so, DHS con...

Effects of media and species on soil CO2 efflux in the landscape

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are widely believed to be the main contributing factors leading to global climate change. The horticulture industry has the potential to improve GHG conditions through sequestering carbon (C) in ...

THE LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE IN MITIGATING THE IMPACTS OF WETLAND HABITAT LOSS

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological restoration is viewed as a way to mitigate the effects of land uses and, potentially, global change. Research to date has primarily focused on the scale of the individual, restoration project, while restoration at the landscape scale is just beginning to be considered...

Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2015-01-01

Background: This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the globalforest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005, 102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2].Methods:...

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Treesearch

Jaymi J. LeBrun; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

Context. Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climateinduced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change. Objectives. We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian...

EFFECT OF AGE ON TISSUE DISTRIBUTION OF BDE 47 IN MICE

EPA Science Inventory

Despite its minor contribution to global polybrominated diphenyl ether production and usage, 2,2',4,4'tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE 47) is the dominant congener found in most biotic samples in North America. The majority of public health concern has focused on potential hazardou...

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires through seasonal advection thermal effects on potential evaporation by winds blowing eastward over California, the Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, and into the Great Plains. These coupled SST photosynthesis models constitute an advanced approach for crop modeling in the era of recent new climate.

Implementing Innovations in Global Women's, Children's, and Adolescents' Health: Realizing the Potential for Implementation Science.

PubMed

Peterson, Herbert B; Haidar, Joumana; Fixsen, Dean; Ramaswamy, Rohit; Weiner, Bryan J; Leatherman, Sheila

2018-03-01

The launch of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the new Secretary General's Global Strategy for Women's, Children's, and Adolescents' Health are a window of opportunity for improving the health and well-being of women, children, and adolescents in the United States and around the world. Realizing the full potential of this historic moment will require that we improve our ability to successfully implement life-saving and life-enhancing innovations, particularly in low-resource settings. Implementation science, a new and rapidly evolving field that addresses the "how-to" component of providing sustainable quality services at scale, can make an important contribution on this front. A synthesis of the implementation science evidence indicates that three interrelated factors are required for successful, sustainable outcomes at scale: 1) effective innovations, 2) effective implementation, and 3) enabling contexts. Implementation science addresses the interaction among these factors to help make innovations more usable, to build ongoing capacity to assure the effective implementation of these innovations, and to ensure enabling contexts to sustain their full and effective use in practice. Improving access to quality services will require transforming health care systems and, therefore, much of the focus of implementation science in global health is on improving the ability of health systems to serve as enabling contexts. The field of implementation science is inherently interdisciplinary and academe will need to respond by facilitating collaboration among scientists from relevant disciplines, including evaluation, improvement, and systems sciences. Platforms and programs to facilitate collaborations among researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and funders are likewise essential.

Warming and elevated CO 2 alter the suberin chemistry in roots of photosynthetically divergent grass species

DOE PAGES

Suseela, Vidya; Tharayil, Nishanth; Pendall, Elise; ...

2017-09-01

A majority of soil carbon (C) is either directly or indirectly derived from fine roots, yet roots remain the least understood component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The decomposability of fine roots and their potential to contribute to soil C is partly regulated by their tissue chemical composition. Roots rely heavily on heteropolymers such as suberins, lignins and tannins to adapt to various environmental pressures and to maximize their resource uptake functions. Since the chemical construction of roots is partly shaped by their immediate biotic/abiotic soil environments, global changes that perturb soil resource availability and plant growth could potentially altermore » root chemistry, and hence the decomposability of roots. However, the effect of global change on the quantity and composition of root heteropolymers are seldom investigated. We examined the effects of elevated CO 2 and warming on the quantity and composition of suberin in roots of Bouteloua gracilis (C4) and Hesperostipa comata (C3) grass species at the Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment at Wyoming, USA. Roots of B. gracilis exposed to elevated CO 2 and warming had higher abundances of suberin and lignin than those exposed to ambient climate treatments. In addition to changes in their abundance, roots exposed to warming and elevated CO 2 had higher ω-hydroxy acids compared to plants grown under ambient conditions. The suberin content and composition in roots of H. comata was less responsive to climate treatments. In H. comata, α,ω-dioic acids increased with the main effect of elevated CO 2, whereas the total quantity of suberin exhibited an increasing trend with the main effect of warming and elevated CO 2. The increase in suberin content and altered composition could lower root decomposition rates with implications for root-derived soil carbon under global change. Our study also suggests that the climate change induced alterations in species composition will further mediate potential suberin contributions to soil carbon pools.« less

Warming and elevated CO 2 alter the suberin chemistry in roots of photosynthetically divergent grass species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suseela, Vidya; Tharayil, Nishanth; Pendall, Elise

A majority of soil carbon (C) is either directly or indirectly derived from fine roots, yet roots remain the least understood component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The decomposability of fine roots and their potential to contribute to soil C is partly regulated by their tissue chemical composition. Roots rely heavily on heteropolymers such as suberins, lignins and tannins to adapt to various environmental pressures and to maximize their resource uptake functions. Since the chemical construction of roots is partly shaped by their immediate biotic/abiotic soil environments, global changes that perturb soil resource availability and plant growth could potentially altermore » root chemistry, and hence the decomposability of roots. However, the effect of global change on the quantity and composition of root heteropolymers are seldom investigated. We examined the effects of elevated CO 2 and warming on the quantity and composition of suberin in roots of Bouteloua gracilis (C4) and Hesperostipa comata (C3) grass species at the Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment at Wyoming, USA. Roots of B. gracilis exposed to elevated CO 2 and warming had higher abundances of suberin and lignin than those exposed to ambient climate treatments. In addition to changes in their abundance, roots exposed to warming and elevated CO 2 had higher ω-hydroxy acids compared to plants grown under ambient conditions. The suberin content and composition in roots of H. comata was less responsive to climate treatments. In H. comata, α,ω-dioic acids increased with the main effect of elevated CO 2, whereas the total quantity of suberin exhibited an increasing trend with the main effect of warming and elevated CO 2. The increase in suberin content and altered composition could lower root decomposition rates with implications for root-derived soil carbon under global change. Our study also suggests that the climate change induced alterations in species composition will further mediate potential suberin contributions to soil carbon pools.« less

Renormalization group flow of the Higgs potential.

PubMed

Gies, Holger; Sondenheimer, René

2018-03-06

We summarize results for local and global properties of the effective potential for the Higgs boson obtained from the functional renormalization group, which allows one to describe the effective potential as a function of both scalar field amplitude and renormalization group scale. This sheds light onto the limitations of standard estimates which rely on the identification of the two scales and helps in clarifying the origin of a possible property of meta-stability of the Higgs potential. We demonstrate that the inclusion of higher-dimensional operators induced by an underlying theory at a high scale (GUT or Planck scale) can relax the conventional lower bound on the Higgs mass derived from the criterion of absolute stability.This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Higgs cosmology'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production.

PubMed

Mills, Gina; Sharps, Katrina; Simpson, David; Pleijel, Håkan; Broberg, Malin; Uddling, Johan; Jaramillo, Fernando; Davies, William J; Dentener, Frank; Van den Berg, Maurits; Agrawal, Madhoolika; Agrawal, Shahibhushan B; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Büker, Patrick; Emberson, Lisa; Feng, Zhaozhong; Harmens, Harry; Hayes, Felicity; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko; Paoletti, Elena; Van Dingenen, Rita

2018-03-31

Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010-2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of biosensors for the detection of marine toxins

PubMed Central

McPartlin, Daniel A.; Lochhead, Michael J.; Connell, Laurie B.; Doucette, Gregory J.

2016-01-01

Increasing occurrences of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the ocean are a major concern for countries around the globe, and with strong links between HABs and climate change and eutrophication, the occurrences are only set to increase. Of particular concern with regard to HABs is the presence of toxin-producing algae. Six major marine biotoxin groups are associated with HABs. Ingestion of such toxins via contaminated shellfish, fish, or other potential vectors, can lead to intoxication syndromes with moderate to severe symptoms, including death in extreme cases. There are also major economic implications associated with the diverse effects of marine biotoxins and HABs. Thus, effective monitoring programmes are required to manage and mitigate their detrimental global effect. However, currently legislated detection methods are labour-intensive, expensive and relatively slow. The growing field of biosensor diagnostic devices is an exciting area that has the potential to produce robust, easy-to-use, cost-effective, rapid and accurate detection methods for marine biotoxins and HABs. This review discusses recently developed biosensor assays that target marine biotoxins and their microbial producers, both in harvested fish/shellfish samples and in the open ocean. The effective deployment of such biosensor platforms could address the pressing need for improved monitoring of HABs and marine biotoxins, and could help to reduce their global economic impact. PMID:27365035

The global household: toward a feminist postcapitalist international political economy.

PubMed

Safri, Maliha; Graham, Julie

2010-01-01

The goal of this article is to introduce a new category into international political economy-the global household-and to begin to widen the focus of international political economy to include nonmarket transactions and noncapitalist production. As an economic institution composed of transnational extended families and codwellers (including international migrants and family members left behind in countries of origin), the global household is engaged in coordinating international migration, sending and receiving billions of dollars in remittances, and organizing and conducting market- and non-market-oriented production on an international scale. We first trace the discursive antecedents of the global household concept to theories of the household as a site of noncapitalist production and to feminist ethnographies of transnational families. In order to demonstrate the potential significance and effect of this newly recognized institution, we estimate the aggregate population of global households, the size and distribution of remittances, and the magnitude and sectoral scope of global household production. We then examine the implications of the global household concept for three areas of inquiry: globalization, economic development, and the household politics of economic transformation. Finally, we briefly explore the possibilities for research and activism opened up by a feminist, postcapitalist international political economy centered on the global household.

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE PAGES

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey; ...

2016-05-17

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Sato, Makiko

1992-01-01

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Cost-effective priorities for global mammal conservation.

PubMed

Carwardine, Josie; Wilson, Kerrie A; Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Naidoo, Robin; Iwamura, Takuya; Hajkowicz, Stefan A; Possingham, Hugh P

2008-08-12

Global biodiversity priority setting underpins the strategic allocation of conservation funds. In identifying the first comprehensive set of global priority areas for mammals, Ceballos et al. [Ceballos G, Ehrlich PR, Soberón J, Salazar I, Fay JP (2005) Science 309:603-607] found much potential for conflict between conservation and agricultural human activity. This is not surprising because, like other global priority-setting approaches, they set priorities without socioeconomic objectives. Here we present a priority-setting framework that seeks to minimize the conflicts and opportunity costs of meeting conservation goals. We use it to derive a new set of priority areas for investment in mammal conservation based on (i) agricultural opportunity cost and biodiversity importance, (ii) current levels of international funding, and (iii) degree of threat. Our approach achieves the same biodiversity outcomes as Ceballos et al.'s while reducing the opportunity costs and conflicts with agricultural human activity by up to 50%. We uncover shortfalls in the allocation of conservation funds in many threatened priority areas, highlighting a global conservation challenge.

Assessment of the potential effects of climate change on water resources of the Delaware River basin; work plan for 1988-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, M.A.; Leavesley, G.H.

1989-01-01

The current consensus is that some global atmospheric warming will occur as a result of increasing ' greenhouse ' gases. Water resources scientists, planners, and managers are concerned about the uncertainty associated with climatic-change effects on water supplies and what planning might be necessary to mitigate the effects. Collaborative studies between climatologists, hydrologists, biologists, and others are needed to gain this understanding. The Delaware River basin study is an interdisciplinary effort on the part of the U.S. Geological Survey that was initiated to improve understanding of the sensitivity of the basin 's water resources to the potential effects of climate change. The Delaware River basin is 12,765 sq mi in area, crosses five physiographic provinces, and supplies water for an estimated 20 million people within and outside the basin. Climate change presumably will result in changes in precipitation and temperature and could have significant effects on evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater recharge. A rise in sea level is likely to accompany global warming and, depending on changes in freshwater inflows, could alter the salinity of the Estuary and increase saline-water intrusion into adjacent aquifer systems. Because the potential effects are not well understood, this report discusses how the effects of climate change on the basin 's water resources might be defined and evaluated. The study objective is to investigate the basin 's hydrologic response, under existing water management policy and infrastructure, to various scenarios of climate change. Specific objectives include defining the temporal and spatial variability of basin hydrology under existing climate conditions , developing climate-change scenarios, and evaluating the potential effects and sensitivities of basin water availability to these scenarios. The objectives will be accomplished through intensive modeling analysis of the basin 's climate, watershed, estuary, and aquifer systems. (USGS)

Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

2018-01-01

Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

Contributions of Behavioral Systems Science to Leadership for a New Progressive Movement.

PubMed

Mattaini, Mark A; Aspholm, Roberto

2016-05-01

We argue in this paper that we are in the midst of a period in which fundamental global change will be required if societies and many species, perhaps even our own, are to survive. The realities are inescapable, and the potential implications are likely to affect nearly every dimension of human life in the USA and globally. Current trends are discouraging and will be extraordinarily difficult to shift, given global structural realities. It is hard to imagine a time when effective leadership is more necessary or will be more challenging. Our thesis here is that behavioral systems science can contribute in meaningful ways to shaping and sustaining such leadership, leadership required to advance a new progressive movement.

Burning trees and bridges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Joel S.

1990-01-01

Most burning of biomass is the result of human activity, and on a global scale it is increasing. Tropospheric concentrations of CO2, CO, CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons, and ozone are all increasing with time; global biomass burning may make an important contribution to this increase and thus to potential global climate change. The nitrogen cycle also can have important climatic effects. Nitrous oxide put into the atmosphere by biomass burning is a greenhouse gas 250 times more powerful (molecule for molecule) than carbon dioxide. Nitric oxide, as well as being a photochemical precursor of ozone, a major pollutant in the troposphere, produces nitric acid, the fastest-growing component of acid rain. Hence, the new bridge in the nitrogen cycle is of more than mere technical interest.

Rapid-response flood mapping during Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria by the Global Flood Partnership (GFP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Alfieri, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Coughlan, E.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Hong, Y.; Kettner, A.; Nghiem, S. V.; Prados, A. I.; Rudari, R.; Salamon, P.; Trigg, M.; Weerts, A.

2017-12-01

The Global Flood Partnership (GFP; https://gfp.jrc.ec.europa.eu) is a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, operational agencies and flood risk managers focused on developing efficient and effective global flood management tools. Launched in 2014, its aim is to establish a partnership for global flood forecasting, monitoring and impact assessment to strengthen preparedness and response and to reduce global disaster losses. International organizations, the private sector, national authorities, universities and research agencies contribute to the GFP on a voluntary basis and benefit from a global network focused on flood risk reduction. At the onset of Hurricane Harvey, GFP was `activated' using email requests via its mailing service. Soon after, flood inundation maps, based on remote sensing analysis and modeling, were shared by different agencies, institutions, and individuals. These products were disseminated, to varying degrees of effectiveness, to federal, state and local agencies via emails and data-sharing services. This generated a broad data-sharing network which was utilized at the early stages of Hurricane Irma's impact, just two weeks after Harvey. In this presentation, we will describe the extent and chronology of the GFP response to both Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. We will assess the potential usefulness of this effort for event managers in various types of organizations and discuss future improvements to be implemented.

Enriched endogenous omega-3 fatty acids in mice protect against global ischemia injury.

PubMed

Luo, Chuanming; Ren, Huixia; Wan, Jian-Bo; Yao, Xiaoli; Zhang, Xiaojing; He, Chengwei; So, Kwok-Fai; Kang, Jing X; Pei, Zhong; Su, Huanxing

2014-07-01

Transient global cerebral ischemia, one of the consequences of cardiac arrest and cardiovascular surgery, usually leads to delayed death of hippocampal cornu Ammonis1 (CA1) neurons and cognitive deficits. Currently, there are no effective preventions or treatments for this condition. Omega-3 (ω-3) PUFAs have been shown to have therapeutic potential in a variety of neurological disorders. Here, we report that the transgenic mice that express the fat-1 gene encoding for ω-3 fatty acid desaturase, which leads to an increase in endogenous ω-3 PUFAs and a concomitant decrease in ω-6 PUFAs, were protected from global cerebral ischemia injury. The results of the study show that the hippocampal CA1 neuronal loss and cognitive deficits induced by global ischemia insult were significantly less severe in fat-1 mice than in WT mice controls. The protection against global cerebral ischemia injury was closely correlated with increased production of resolvin D1, suppressed nuclear factor-kappa B activation, and reduced generation of pro-inflammatory mediators in the hippocampus of fat-1 mice compared with WT mice controls. Our study demonstrates that fat-1 mice with high endogenous ω-3 PUFAs exhibit protective effects on hippocampal CA1 neurons and cognitive functions in a global ischemia injury model. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

Simulated responses of terrestrial aridity to black carbon and sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Xu, Y.; Fu, Q.

2016-01-01

Aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET), is a measure of the dryness of terrestrial climate. Global climate models generally project future decreases of AI (drying) associated with global warming scenarios driven by increasing greenhouse gas and declining aerosols. Given their different effects in the climate system, scattering and absorbing aerosols may affect AI differently. Here we explore the terrestrial aridity responses to anthropogenic black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols with Community Earth System Model simulations. Positive BC radiative forcing decreases precipitation averaged over global land at a rate of 0.9%/°C of global mean surface temperature increase (moderate drying), while BC radiative forcing increases PET by 1.0%/°C (also drying). BC leads to a global decrease of 1.9%/°C in AI (drying). SO4 forcing is negative and causes precipitation a decrease at a rate of 6.7%/°C cooling (strong drying). PET also decreases in response to SO4 aerosol cooling by 6.3%/°C cooling (contributing to moistening). Thus, SO4 cooling leads to a small decrease in AI (drying) by 0.4%/°C cooling. Despite the opposite effects on global mean temperature, BC and SO4 both contribute to the twentieth century drying (AI decrease). Sensitivity test indicates that surface temperature and surface available energy changes dominate BC- and SO4-induced PET changes.

Assessing energy efficiencies, economy, and global warming potential (GWP) effects of major crop production systems in Iran: a case study in East Azerbaijan province.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Arash; Mahdavi Damghani, Abdolmajid; Vafabakhsh, Javad; Deihimfard, Reza

2017-07-01

Efficient use of energy in farming systems is one of the most important implications for decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigating global warming (GW). This paper describes the energy use patterns, analyze the economics, and report global warming potential effects of major crop production systems in East Azerbaijan province, Iran. For this purpose, 110 farmers whose main activity was major crop production in the region, including wheat, barley, carrot, tomato, onion, potato, alfalfa, corn silage, canola, and saffron, were surveyed. Some other data was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad of Iran. Results showed that, in terms of total energy input, onion (87,556 Mj ha -1 ) and potato (80,869 Mj ha -1 ) production systems were more energy-intensive than other crops. Among the studied crops, the highest values of net return (6563.8 $ ha -1 ) and benefit/cost ratio (1.95) were related to carrot and corn silage production systems, respectively. Studies have also shown that onion and saffron production systems emit the highest (5332.6 kg CO2eq ha -1 ) and lowest (646.24 kg CO 2 eq ha -1 ) CO 2 eq. emission, respectively. When it was averaged across crops, diesel fuel accounted for the greatest GHG contribution with 43% of the total, followed by electric power (28%) and nitrogen fertilizer (21%). In the present study, eco-efficiency was calculated as a ratio of the gross production value and global warming potential effect for the studied crops. Out of all the studied crops, the highest values of eco-efficiency were calculated to be 8.65 $ kg CO 2 eq -1 for the saffron production system followed by the carrot (3.65 $ kg CO 2 eq -1 ) production. Generally, from the aspect of energy balance and use efficiency, the alfalfa production system was the best; however, from an economical point of view, the carrot production system was better than the other crops.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Health impact assessment, human rights and global public policy: a critical appraisal.

PubMed

Scott-Samuel, Alex; O'Keefe, Eileen

2007-03-01

Public policy decisions in both the social and economic spheres have enormous impact on global public health. As a result of this, and of the skewed global distribution of power and resources, health impact assessment (HIA) potentially has a key role to play in foreign policy-making and global public policy-making. Governments, multilateral bodies and transnational corporations need to be held to account for the health impacts of their policies and practices. One route towards achieving this objective involves the inclusion of human rights assessments within HIA. International commitments to human rights instruments and standards can be used as a global auditing tool. Methodological issues may limit the effectiveness of HIA in promoting health equity. These issues include the use of procedures that favour those holding power in the policy process or the use of procedures that fail to apply values of equity and participation. The identification and production of evidence that includes the interests of less powerful groups is a priority for HIA and would be furthered if a human rights-based method of HIA were developed. Because HIA considers all types of policies and examines all potential determinants of health, it can play a part when foreign policy is developed and global decisions are made to treat people as rights holders. Since the human right to health is shaped by the determinants of health, developing links between the right to health assessment (that is, an assessment of the impact of policies on the right to health) and HIA--as recently proposed by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the right to health--could strengthen the development of foreign policy and global decisions. Such links should be pursued and applied to the development of foreign policy and to the operation of multilateral bodies.

Training the next generation of global health advocates through experiential education: A mixed-methods case study evaluation.

PubMed

Hoffman, Steven J; Silverberg, Sarah L

2015-10-15

This case study evaluates a global health education experience aimed at training the next generation of global health advocates. Demand and interest in global health among Canadian students is well documented, despite the difficulty in integrating meaningful experiences into curricula. Global health advocacy was taught to 19 undergraduate students at McMaster University through an experiential education course, during which they developed a national advocacy campaign on global access to medicines. A quantitative survey and an analysis of social network dynamics were conducted, along with a qualitative analysis of written work and course evaluations. Data were interpreted through a thematic synthesis approach. Themes were identified related to students' learning outcomes, experience and class dynamics. The experiential education format helped students gain authentic, real-world experience in global health advocacy and leadership. The tangible implications for their course work was a key motivating factor. While experiential education is an effective tool for some learning outcomes, it is not suitable for all. As well, group dynamics and evaluation methods affect the learning environment. Real-world global health issues, public health practice and advocacy approaches can be effectively taught through experiential education, alongside skills like communication and professionalism. Students developed a nuanced understanding of many strategies, challenges and barriers that exist in advocating for public health ideas. These experiences are potentially empowering and confidence-building despite the heavy time commitment they require. Attention should be given to how such experiences are designed, as course dynamics and grading structure significantly influence students' experience.

Prognosis for a sick planet.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark

2008-12-01

Global warming is the most important science issue of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society. The study of past climate has shown that the current global climate system is extremely sensitive to human-induced climate change. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused changes with clear evidence for a 0.75 degrees C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report (2007) predicts that global temperatures by 2100 could rise by between 1.1 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C. Sea level could rise by between 28 cm and 79 cm, more if the melting of the polar ice caps accelerates. In addition, weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts, will increase. The potential effects of global warming on human society are devastating. We do, however, already have many of the technological solutions to cure our sick planet.

Scaling-up camera traps: monitoring the planet's biodiversity with networks of remote sensors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steenweg, Robin; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kays, Roland; Ahumada, Jorge A.; Fisher, Jason T.; Burton, Cole; Townsend, Susan E.; Carbone, Chris; Rowcliffe, J. Marcus; Whittington, Jesse; Brodie, Jedediah; Royle, Andy; Switalski, Adam; Clevenger, Anthony P.; Heim, Nicole; Rich, Lindsey N.

2017-01-01

Countries committed to implementing the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2011–2020 strategic plan need effective tools to monitor global trends in biodiversity. Remote cameras are a rapidly growing technology that has great potential to transform global monitoring for terrestrial biodiversity and can be an important contributor to the call for measuring Essential Biodiversity Variables. Recent advances in camera technology and methods enable researchers to estimate changes in abundance and distribution for entire communities of animals and to identify global drivers of biodiversity trends. We suggest that interconnected networks of remote cameras will soon monitor biodiversity at a global scale, help answer pressing ecological questions, and guide conservation policy. This global network will require greater collaboration among remote-camera studies and citizen scientists, including standardized metadata, shared protocols, and security measures to protect records about sensitive species. With modest investment in infrastructure, and continued innovation, synthesis, and collaboration, we envision a global network of remote cameras that not only provides real-time biodiversity data but also serves to connect people with nature.

Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

PubMed

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

Local and Global Auditory Processing: Behavioral and ERP Evidence

PubMed Central

Sanders, Lisa D.; Poeppel, David

2007-01-01

Differential processing of local and global visual features is well established. Global precedence effects, differences in event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited when attention is focused on local versus global levels, and hemispheric specialization for local and global features all indicate that relative scale of detail is an important distinction in visual processing. Observing analogous differential processing of local and global auditory information would suggest that scale of detail is a general organizational principle of the brain. However, to date the research on auditory local and global processing has primarily focused on music perception or on the perceptual analysis of relatively higher and lower frequencies. The study described here suggests that temporal aspects of auditory stimuli better capture the local-global distinction. By combining short (40 ms) frequency modulated tones in series to create global auditory patterns (500 ms), we independently varied whether pitch increased or decreased over short time spans (local) and longer time spans (global). Accuracy and reaction time measures revealed better performance for global judgments and asymmetric interference that were modulated by amount of pitch change. ERPs recorded while participants listened to identical sounds and indicated the direction of pitch change at the local or global levels provided evidence for differential processing similar to that found in ERP studies employing hierarchical visual stimuli. ERP measures failed to provide evidence for lateralization of local and global auditory perception, but differences in distributions suggest preferential processing in more ventral and dorsal areas respectively. PMID:17113115

Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

Treesearch

Matthew C. Reeves; Adam L. Moreno; Karen E. Bagne; Steven W. Running

2014-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen...

Global pattern for the effect of climate and land cover on water yield

Treesearch

Guoy Zhou; Xiaohua Wei; Xiuzhi Chen; Ping Zhou; Xiaodong Liu; Yin Xiao; Ge Sun; David F. Scott; Shuyidan Zhou; Liusheng Hano; Yongxian Su

2015-01-01

Research results on the effects of land cover change on water resources vary greatly and the topic remains controversial. Here we use published data worldwide to examine the validity of Fuh’s equation, which relates annual water yield (R) to a wetness index (precipitation/ potential evapotranspiration; P/PET) and watershed characteristics (m). We identify two critical...

The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Kjellström, Erik; Chen, Youmin; Hänsler, Andreas; Kupiainen, Marco; Laprise, René; Mariotti, Laura; Fox Maule, Cathrine; van Meijgaard, Erik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Scinocca, John F.; Somot, Samuel

2018-06-01

There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models’ agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5 °C GWL and strengthening at 2 °C. A consistent difference between 2 °C and 1.5 °C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. Our study indicates that a 0.5 °C further warming (from 1.5 °C–2 °C) can indeed produce a robust change in some aspects of the African climate and its extremes.

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming.

PubMed

Gunderson, Alex R; Stillman, Jonathon H

2015-06-07

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the 'Bogert effect'. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Developing a global health diplomacy supply chain--a viable option for the United States to curb extremism.

PubMed

Kumar, Sameer; Honkanen, Erik J; Karl, Chad C

2009-01-01

This study examines the idea of developing a global health diplomacy supply chain as an important foreign policy approach with the aim of improving the lives of vulnerable populations and serving the best interests of the United States. The study was based on the review of academic literature, news events, and military communiques, and historical writings were studied to determine the feasibility of the idea and the extent of costs and benefits of such an endeavor. An integrated strategic business model, supported by a medical care delivery process, was developed to create a framework for a feasible global health diplomacy supply chain. The findings indicate that extremism can be contained by creating and efficiently executing an effective supply chain to get medical care units to those that need them. The limitations are the potential exit strategies required, the tactical abilities, and diplomatic techniques needed in order to create positive diplomatic change in aid distribution. Managers must consider how supply chains will affect other organizations giving aid and the potential public response. Moreover, determining the level of care necessary to achieve the greatest positive health diplomacy continues to require vigilant scrutiny over the potential cost/benefit analysis. The analysis is valuable to policymakers considering the impacts of health diplomacy by utilizing supply chain management.

Long-term no-till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long-term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however,...

HYSOGs250m, global gridded hydrologic soil groups for curve-number-based runoff modeling.

PubMed

Ross, C Wade; Prihodko, Lara; Anchang, Julius; Kumar, Sanath; Ji, Wenjie; Hanan, Niall P

2018-05-15

Hydrologic soil groups (HSGs) are a fundamental component of the USDA curve-number (CN) method for estimation of rainfall runoff; yet these data are not readily available in a format or spatial-resolution suitable for regional- and global-scale modeling applications. We developed a globally consistent, gridded dataset defining HSGs from soil texture, bedrock depth, and groundwater. The resulting data product-HYSOGs250m-represents runoff potential at 250 m spatial resolution. Our analysis indicates that the global distribution of soil is dominated by moderately high runoff potential, followed by moderately low, high, and low runoff potential. Low runoff potential, sandy soils are found primarily in parts of the Sahara and Arabian Deserts. High runoff potential soils occur predominantly within tropical and sub-tropical regions. No clear pattern could be discerned for moderately low runoff potential soils, as they occur in arid and humid environments and at both high and low elevations. Potential applications of this data include CN-based runoff modeling, flood risk assessment, and as a covariate for biogeographical analysis of vegetation distributions.

The potential global market size and public health value of an HIV-1 vaccine in a complex global market.

PubMed

Marzetta, Carol A; Lee, Stephen S; Wrobel, Sandra J; Singh, Kanwarjit J; Russell, Nina; Esparza, José

2010-07-05

An effective HIV vaccine will be essential for the control of the HIV pandemic. This study evaluated the potential global market size and value of a hypothetical HIV vaccine and considered clade diversity, disease burden, partial prevention of acquisition, impact of a reduction in viral load resulting in a decrease in transmission and delay to treatment, health care system differences regarding access, and HIV screening and vaccination, across all public and private markets. Vaccine product profiles varied from a vaccine that would have no effect on preventing infection to a vaccine that would effectively prevent infection and reduce viral load. High disease burden countries (HDBC; HIV prevalence > or = 1%) were assumed to routinely vaccinate pre-sexually active adolescents (10 years old), whereas low disease burden countries (LDBC; HIV prevalence rate <1%) were assumed to routinely vaccinate higher risk populations only. At steady state, routine vaccination demand for vaccines that would prevent infection only was 22-61 million annual doses with a potential market value of $210 million to $2.7 billion, depending on the vaccine product profile. If one-time catch-up campaigns were included (11-14 years old for HDBC and higher risk groups for LDBC), the additional cumulative approximately 70-237 million doses were needed over a 10-year period with a potential market value of approximately $695 million to $13.4 billion, depending on the vaccine product profile. Market size and value varied across market segments with the majority of the value in high income countries and the majority of the demand in low income countries. However, the value of the potential market in low income countries is still significant with up to $550 million annually for routine vaccination only and up to $1.7 billion for a one-time only catch-up campaign in 11-14 years old. In the most detail to date, this study evaluated market size and value of a potential multi-clade HIV vaccine, accounting for differences in disease burden, product profile and health care complexities. These findings provide donors and suppliers highly credible new data to consider in their continued efforts to develop an HIV-1 vaccine to address the worldwide disease burden. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards quantifying global aerosol radiative effects using lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorsen, T. J.

2017-12-01

Spaceborne lidar observations alleviate many of the limitations of passivesensors and have great potential to provide accurate global all-sky estimatesof the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE). However, analysis of CALIPSOlidar observations show that CALIPSO does not detect allradiatively-significant aerosol, i.e. aerosol that directly modifies theEarth's radiation budget. We estimated that using CALIPSO observationsresults in an underestimate of the magnitude of the global mean aerosol DREby up to 54%. The CATS lidar on-board the ISS is shown to have a poorersensitivity than CALIPSO and the expected sensitivity of the upcoming ATLIDlidar on EarthCARE indicates that calculations of the aerosol DRE willcontinue to be significantly biased. Improvements to our knowledge of aerosol forcing, which contributes thelargest uncertainty to climate sensitivity, could be achieved by a futurespace-based HSRL mission. To this end, high-accuracy ground-based andairborne lidar datasets have been used to compute the detection sensitivityrequired to accurately resolve the aerosol DRE. Multiwavelength HSRLmeasurements also can retrieve vertically-resolved aerosol optical propertiesneeded for radiative transfer calculations which are not provided by currentsatellite observations. Current satellite observations also do not provideall the quantities needed to compute the aerosol direct radiative forcing,i.e. the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols. A multiwavelengthHSRL allows for a more refined aerosol classification to be made enablingboth calculations of anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects and betterconstraints on global models.

Effects of altered maternal folic acid, vitamin B12 and docosahexaenoic acid on placental global DNA methylation patterns in Wistar rats.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Asmita; Dangat, Kamini; Kale, Anvita; Sable, Pratiksha; Chavan-Gautam, Preeti; Joshi, Sadhana

2011-03-10

Potential adverse effects of excess maternal folic acid supplementation on a vegetarian population deficient in vitamin B(12) are poorly understood. We have previously shown in a rat model that maternal folic acid supplementation at marginal protein levels reduces brain omega-3 fatty acid levels in the adult offspring. We have also reported that reduced docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) levels may result in diversion of methyl groups towards DNA in the one carbon metabolic pathway ultimately resulting in DNA methylation. This study was designed to examine the effect of normal and excess folic acid in the absence and presence of vitamin B(12) deficiency on global methylation patterns in the placenta. Further, the effect of maternal omega 3 fatty acid supplementation on the above vitamin B(12) deficient diets was also examined. Our results suggest maternal folic acid supplementation in the absence of vitamin B(12) lowers plasma and placental DHA levels (p<0.05) and reduces global DNA methylation levels (p<0.05). When this group was supplemented with omega 3 fatty acids there was an increase in placental DHA levels and subsequently DNA methylation levels revert back to the levels of the control group. Our results suggest for the first time that DHA plays an important role in one carbon metabolism thereby influencing global DNA methylation in the placenta.

Global-change effects on early-stage decomposition processes in tidal wetlands - implications from a global survey using standardized litter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Peter; Schile-Beers, Lisa M.; Mozdzer, Thomas J.; Chmura, Gail L.; Dinter, Thomas; Kuzyakov, Yakov; de Groot, Alma V.; Esselink, Peter; Smit, Christian; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Ibáñez, Carles; Lazarus, Magdalena; Neumeier, Urs; Johnson, Beverly J.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Yarwood, Stephanie A.; Montemayor, Diana I.; Yang, Zaichao; Wu, Jihua; Jensen, Kai; Nolte, Stefanie

2018-05-01

Tidal wetlands, such as tidal marshes and mangroves, are hotspots for carbon sequestration. The preservation of organic matter (OM) is a critical process by which tidal wetlands exert influence over the global carbon cycle and at the same time gain elevation to keep pace with sea-level rise (SLR). The present study assessed the effects of temperature and relative sea level on the decomposition rate and stabilization of OM in tidal wetlands worldwide, utilizing commercially available standardized litter. While effects on decomposition rate per se were minor, we show strong negative effects of temperature and relative sea level on stabilization, as based on the fraction of labile, rapidly hydrolyzable OM that becomes stabilized during deployment. Across study sites, OM stabilization was 29 % lower in low, more frequently flooded vs. high, less frequently flooded zones. Stabilization declined by ˜ 75 % over the studied temperature gradient from 10.9 to 28.5 °C. Additionally, data from the Plum Island long-term ecological research site in Massachusetts, USA, show a pronounced reduction in OM stabilization by > 70 % in response to simulated coastal eutrophication, confirming the potentially high sensitivity of OM stabilization to global change. We therefore provide evidence that rising temperature, accelerated SLR, and coastal eutrophication may decrease the future capacity of tidal wetlands to sequester carbon by affecting the initial transformations of recent OM inputs to soil OM.

Global facilitation of attended features is obligatory and restricts divided attention.

PubMed

Andersen, Søren K; Hillyard, Steven A; Müller, Matthias M

2013-11-13

In many common situations such as driving an automobile it is advantageous to attend concurrently to events at different locations (e.g., the car in front, the pedestrian to the side). While spatial attention can be divided effectively between separate locations, studies investigating attention to nonspatial features have often reported a "global effect", whereby items having the attended feature may be preferentially processed throughout the entire visual field. These findings suggest that spatial and feature-based attention may at times act in direct opposition: spatially divided foci of attention cannot be truly independent if feature attention is spatially global and thereby affects all foci equally. In two experiments, human observers attended concurrently to one of two overlapping fields of dots of different colors presented in both the left and right visual fields. When the same color or two different colors were attended on the two sides, deviant targets were detected accurately, and visual-cortical potentials elicited by attended dots were enhanced. However, when the attended color on one side matched the ignored color on the opposite side, attentional modulation of cortical potentials was abolished. This loss of feature selectivity could be attributed to enhanced processing of unattended items that shared the color of the attended items in the opposite field. Thus, while it is possible to attend to two different colors at the same time, this ability is fundamentally constrained by spatially global feature enhancement in early visual-cortical areas, which is obligatory and persists even when it explicitly conflicts with task demands.

Comparison of physically- and economically-based CO2-equivalences for methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, O.

2012-01-01

There is a controversy on the role methane (and other short-lived species) should play in climate mitigation policies and no consensus on what an optimal methane CO2-equivalence should be. We revisit this question by discussing the relative merits of physically-based (i.e. Global Warming Potential or GWP and Global Temperature change Potential or GTP) and socio-economically-based climate metrics. To this effect we use a simplified Global Damage Potential (GDP) that was introduced by earlier authors and investigate the uncertainties in the methane CO2-equivalence that arise from physical and socio-economic factors. The median value of the methane GDP comes out very close to the widely used methane 100-year GWP because of various compensating effects. However there is a large spread in possible methane CO2-equivalences (1-99% interval: 10.0-42.5; 5-95% interval: 12.5-38.0) that is essentially due to the choice in some socio-economic parameters (i.e. the damage cost function and the discount rate). The methane 100-year GTP falls outside these ranges. It is legitimate to increase the methane CO2-equivalence in the future as global warming unfolds. While changes in biogeochemical cycles and radiative efficiencies cause some small changes to physically-based metrics, a systematic increase in the methane CO2-equivalence can only be achieved by some ad-hoc shortening of the time horizon. In contrast using a convex damage cost function provides a natural increase in the methane CO2-equivalence for the socio-economically-based metrics. We also show that a methane CO2-equivalence based on a pulse emission is sufficient to inform multi-year climate policies and emissions reductions as long as there is some degree of visibility on CO2 prices and CO2-equivalences.

Linking global-change induced shifts in soil nitrogen cycling with the abundance of key microorganisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, C.; Eviner, V.; Beman, M.; Hart, S. C.

2013-12-01

Since western colonization, the ecology of California has seen marked transformations. In particular, invasion of terrestrial ecosystems by exotic plants has altered plant community composition, disturbances, soil hydrologic regimes, and nutrient cycling. In addition, as a result of fertilization and combustion of fossil fuels, California experiences some of the highest nitrogen (N) deposition rates in the country. Land use has also changed with the introduction of domestic livestock grazing about 250 years ago. Currently, approximately 32% of land in California experiences grazing pressure. These ecological changes likely affect the ecosystems of California simultaneously. However, with multifactor global change experiments in their infancy, little is known about potential interactive effects on ecosystem structure and function. Our study measured the response of soil N dynamics to a unique combination of treatments: invasion by exotic plants (Aegilops triuncialis and Taeniatherum caput-medusae), elevated N additions, and simulated cattle grazing (aboveground vegetation removal). In addition, we quantified the abundance of key functional genes involved in nitrification (amoA) and denitrification (nirS/nirK) in order to gain a mechanistic insight into changes in ecosystem functioning. We found that, while responses of soil N pools and processes to global change factors tend to be dominated by main effects, interactions among factors can substantially alter the overall response of the ecosystem. For instance, N additions increased potential nitrification and pools of total inorganic N (TIN; NH4+ and NO3-); when N additions and grazing were combined, however, nitrification potentials and TIN decreased to those of ambient N (control) levels. Additionally, neither N additions nor simulated grazing independently affected soil microbial biomass of invaded plots; yet, when combined, the microbial biomass increased significantly. Our results help to provide a better understanding of the regulatory role of the soil microbial community in terrestrial N cycling and also help to improve our understanding of the controls on global change-induced shifts in ecosystem functioning.

The global problem of childhood diarrhoeal diseases: emerging strategies in prevention and management

PubMed Central

Mokomane, Margaret; Kasvosve, Ishmael; de Melo, Emilia; Pernica, Jeffrey M.; Goldfarb, David M.

2017-01-01

Acute diarrhoeal diseases remain a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality particularly among young children in resource-limited countries. Recent large studies utilizing case–control design, prospective sampling and more sensitive and broad diagnostic techniques have shed light on particular pathogens of importance and highlighted the previously under recognized impact of these infections on post-acute illness mortality and growth. Vaccination, particularly against rotavirus, has emerged as a key effective means of preventing significant morbidity and mortality from childhood diarrhoeal disease. Other candidate vaccines against leading diarrhoeal pathogens, such as enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli and Shigella spp., also hold significant promise in further ameliorating the burden of enteric infections in children. Large studies are also currently underway evaluating novel and potential easy-to-implement water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) preventive strategies. Given the ongoing global burden of this illness, the paucity of new advances in case management over the last several decades remains a challenge. The increasing recognition of post-acute illness mortality and growth impairment has highlighted the need for interventions that go beyond management of dehydration and electrolyte disturbances. The few trials of novel promising interventions such as probiotics have mainly been conducted in high-income settings. Trials of antimicrobials have also been primarily conducted in high-income settings or in travellers from high-income settings. Bloody diarrhoea has been shown to be a poor marker of potentially treatable bacterial enteritis, and rising antimicrobial resistance has also made empiric antimicrobial therapy more challenging in many settings. Novel effective and sustainable interventions and diagnostic strategies are clearly needed to help improve case management. Diarrhoeal disease and other enteric infections remain an unmet challenge in global child health. Most promising recent developments have been focused around preventive measures, in particular vaccination. Further advances in prevention and case management including the possible use of targeted antimicrobial treatment are also required to fully address this critical burden on child health and human potential. PMID:29344358

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ALPINE TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS IN THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. (R827449)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Electronic-nose devices - Potential for noninvasive early disease-detection applications

Treesearch

Alphus Dan Wilson

2017-01-01

Significant progress in the development of portable electronic devices is showing considerable promise to facilitate clinical diagnostic processes. The increasing global trend of shifts in healthcare policies and priorities toward shortening and improving the effectiveness of diagnostic procedures by utilizing non-invasive methods should provide multiple benefits of...

High density mapping of a resistance gene to Ug99 from an Iranian landrace

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managing the disease wheat stem rust caused by Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici (Pgt) including the highly virulent race TTKSK is imperative for the preservation of global food security. The most effective strategy for managing this potentially devastating disease is pyramiding several resistance ge...

Determining media and species effects on soil carbon dynamics in the landscape

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is an important factor in global change research. While agriculture is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it has great potential to offset emissions by altering management practices. Much of the work on reducing GHG emissio...

Genotype and plant trait effects on soil CO2 efflux responses to altered precipitation in switchgrass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Global climate change models predict increasing drought during the growing season, which will alter many ecosystem processes including soil CO2 efflux (JCO2), with potential consequences for carbon retention in soils. Soil moisture, soil temperature and plant traits such...

Potential climate change impacts on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Ying Tang; Lifeng Luo; Shiyuan Zhong; Julie Winkler; Xindi. Bian

2015-01-01

Researchers at Michigan State University and the Forest Service's Northern Research Station worked on a joint study to examine the possible effects of future global and regional climate change on the occurrence of fire-weather patterns often associated with extreme and erratic wildfire behavior in the United States.

Beneficial Effects of Disengagement from Futile Struggles with Occupational Planning: A Contextualist-Motivational Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tomasik, Martin J.; Silbereisen, Rainer K.

2012-01-01

Globalized labor markets confront many adults, both employed and unemployed, with demands arising from career uncertainty that have the potential to jeopardize their occupational planning. This article investigated how individuals in different regions of Germany, which are characterized by different economic opportunities, negotiate such demands…

The implications of megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation for changes in global physical activity.

PubMed

Pratt, Michael; Sarmiento, Olga L; Montes, Felipe; Ogilvie, David; Marcus, Bess H; Perez, Lilian G; Brownson, Ross C

2012-07-21

Physical inactivity accounts for more than 3 million deaths per year, most from non-communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We used reviews of physical activity interventions and a simulation model to examine how megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation directly and indirectly affect levels of physical activity across countries of low, middle, and high income. The model suggested that the direct and potentiating eff ects of information and communication technology, especially mobile phones, are nearly equal in magnitude to the mean eff ects of planned physical activity interventions. The greatest potential to increase population physical activity might thus be in creation of synergistic policies in sectors outside health including communication and transportation. However, there remains a glaring mismatch between where studies on physical activity interventions are undertaken and where the potential lies in low-income and middle-income countries for population-level effects that will truly affect global health.

A coupled channel study of HN2 unimolecular decay based on a global ab initio potential surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koizumi, Hiroyasu; Schatz, George C.; Walch, Stephen P.

1991-01-01

The unimolecular decay lifetimes of several vibrational states of HN2 are determined on the basis of an accurate coupled channel dynamics study using a global analytical potential surface. The surface reproduces the ab initio points with an rms error of 0.08 kcal/mol for energies below 20 kcal/mol. Modifications to the potential that describe the effect of improving the basis set in the ab initio calculations are provided. Converged coupled channel calculations are performed for the ground rotational state of HN2 to determine the lifetimes of the lowest ten vibrational states. Only the ground vibrational state (000) and first excited bend (001) are found to have lifetimes longer than 1 ps. The lifetimes of these states are estimated at 3 x 10 to the -9th and 2 x 10 to the -10th s, respectively. Variation of these results with quality of the ab initio calculations is not more than a factor of 5.

Mitigating global warming potentials of methane and nitrous oxide gases from rice paddies under different irrigation regimes.

PubMed

Ali, Muhammad Aslam; Hoque, M Anamul; Kim, Pil Joo

2013-04-01

A field experiment was conducted in Bangladesh Agricultural University Farm to investigate the mitigating effects of soil amendments such as calcium carbide, calcium silicate, phosphogypsum, and biochar with urea fertilizer on global warming potentials (GWPs) of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) gases during rice cultivation under continuous and intermittent irrigations. Among the amendments phosphogypsum and silicate fertilizer, being potential source of electron acceptors, decreased maximum level of seasonal CH4 flux by 25-27 % and 32-38 % in continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. Biochar and calcium carbide amendments, acting as nitrification inhibitors, decreased N2O emissions by 36-40 % and 26-30 % under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. The total GWP of CH4 and N2O gases were decreased by 7-27 % and 6-34 % with calcium carbide, phosphogypsum, and silicate fertilizer amendments under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. However, biochar amendments increased overall GWP of CH4 and N2O gases.

Hormonally mediated maternal effects, individual strategy and global change

PubMed Central

Meylan, Sandrine; Miles, Donald B.; Clobert, Jean

2012-01-01

A challenge to ecologists and evolutionary biologists is predicting organismal responses to the anticipated changes to global ecosystems through climate change. Most evidence suggests that short-term global change may involve increasing occurrences of extreme events, therefore the immediate response of individuals will be determined by physiological capacities and life-history adaptations to cope with extreme environmental conditions. Here, we consider the role of hormones and maternal effects in determining the persistence of species in altered environments. Hormones, specifically steroids, are critical for patterning the behaviour and morphology of parents and their offspring. Hence, steroids have a pervasive influence on multiple aspects of the offspring phenotype over its lifespan. Stress hormones, e.g. glucocorticoids, modulate and perturb phenotypes both early in development and later into adulthood. Females exposed to abiotic stressors during reproduction may alter the phenotypes by manipulation of hormones to the embryos. Thus, hormone-mediated maternal effects, which generate phenotypic plasticity, may be one avenue for coping with global change. Variation in exposure to hormones during development influences both the propensity to disperse, which alters metapopulation dynamics, and population dynamics, by affecting either recruitment to the population or subsequent life-history characteristics of the offspring. We suggest that hormones may be an informative index to the potential for populations to adapt to changing environments. PMID:22566673

A spatially explicit representation of conservation agriculture for application in global change studies.

PubMed

Prestele, Reinhard; Hirsch, Annette L; Davin, Edouard L; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Verburg, Peter H

2018-05-10

Conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable agricultural management strategy with the potential to alleviate some of the adverse effects of modern, industrial agriculture such as large-scale soil erosion, nutrient leaching and overexploitation of water resources. Moreover, agricultural land managed under CA is proposed to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation through reduced emission of greenhouse gases, increased solar radiation reflection, and the sustainable use of soil and water resources. Due to the lack of official reporting schemes, the amount of agricultural land managed under CA systems is uncertain and spatially explicit information about the distribution of CA required for various modeling studies is missing. Here, we present an approach to downscale present-day national-level estimates of CA to a 5 arcminute regular grid, based on multicriteria analysis. We provide a best estimate of CA distribution and an uncertainty range in the form of a low and high estimate of CA distribution, reflecting the inconsistency in CA definitions. We also design two scenarios of the potential future development of CA combining present-day data and an assessment of the potential for implementation using biophysical and socioeconomic factors. By our estimates, 122-215 Mha or 9%-15% of global arable land is currently managed under CA systems. The lower end of the range represents CA as an integrated system of permanent no-tillage, crop residue management and crop rotations, while the high estimate includes a wider range of areas primarily devoted to temporary no-tillage or reduced tillage operations. Our scenario analysis suggests a future potential of CA in the range of 533-1130 Mha (38%-81% of global arable land). Our estimates can be used in various ecosystem modeling applications and are expected to help identifying more realistic climate mitigation and adaptation potentials of agricultural practices. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A comparison of the cytogenetic alterations and global DNA hypomethylation induced by the benzene metabolite, hydroquinone, with those induced by melphalan and etoposide

PubMed Central

Ji, Z; Zhang, L; Peng, V.; Ren, X; McHale, CM; Smith, MT

2015-01-01

Specific cytogenetic alterations and changes in DNA methylation are involved in leukemogenesis. Benzene, an established human leukemogen, is known to induce cytogenetic changes through its active metabolites including hydroquinone (HQ), but the specific alterations have not been fully characterized. Global DNA hypomethylation was reported in a population exposed to benzene, but has not been confirmed in vitro. In this study, we examined cytogenetic changes in chromosomes 5, 7, 8, 11 and 21, and global DNA methylation in human TK6 lymphoblastoid cells treated with HQ for 48 h, and compared the HQ-induced alterations with those induced by two well-known leukemogens, melphalan, an alkylating agent, and etoposide, a DNA topoisomerase II inhibitor. We found that rather than inducing cytogenetic alterations distinct from those induced by melphalan and etoposide, HQ induced alterations characteristic of each agent. HQ induced global DNA hypomethylation at a level intermediate to melphalan (no effect) and etoposide (potent effect). These results suggest that HQ may act similar to an alkylating agent and also similar to a DNA topoisomerase II inhibitor in living cells, both of which may be potential mechanisms of benzene toxicity. In addition to cytogenetic changes, global DNA hypomethylation may be another mechanism underlying the leukemogenicity of benzene. PMID:20339439

Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Kimberly M.

Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

A strategy to find minimal energy nanocluster structures.

PubMed

Rogan, José; Varas, Alejandro; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro; Kiwi, Miguel

2013-11-05

An unbiased strategy to search for the global and local minimal energy structures of free standing nanoclusters is presented. Our objectives are twofold: to find a diverse set of low lying local minima, as well as the global minimum. To do so, we use massively the fast inertial relaxation engine algorithm as an efficient local minimizer. This procedure turns out to be quite efficient to reach the global minimum, and also most of the local minima. We test the method with the Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential, for which an abundant literature does exist, and obtain novel results, which include a new local minimum for LJ13 , 10 new local minima for LJ14 , and thousands of new local minima for 15≤N≤65. Insights on how to choose the initial configurations, analyzing the effectiveness of the method in reaching low-energy structures, including the global minimum, are developed as a function of the number of atoms of the cluster. Also, a novel characterization of the potential energy surface, analyzing properties of the local minima basins, is provided. The procedure constitutes a promising tool to generate a diverse set of cluster conformations, both two- and three-dimensional, that can be used as an input for refinement by means of ab initio methods. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

International trade of health services: global trends and local impact.

PubMed

Lautier, Marc

2014-10-01

Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant dimension of this is trade in health services. Traditionally, the flow of health services exports went from North to South, with patients travelling in the opposite direction. This situation is changing and a number of papers have discussed the growth of health services exports from Southern countries in its different dimensions. Less attention has been paid to assess the real scope of this trade at the global level and its potential impact at the local level. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore first built an estimate of the global size and of the growth trend of international trade in health services since 1997, which is compared with several country-based studies. The second purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the significant economic impact of this trade at the local level for the exporting country. We consider the case of health providers in the South-Mediterranean region for which the demand potential, the economic effects and the consequence for the health system are presented. These issues lead to the overall conclusion that different policy options would be appropriate, in relation to the nature of the demand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating water consumption of potential natural vegetation on global dry lands: building an LCA framework for green water flows.

PubMed

Núñez, Montserrat; Pfister, Stephan; Roux, Philippe; Antón, Assumpció

2013-01-01

This study aimed to provide a framework for assessing direct soil-water consumption, also termed green water in the literature, in life cycle assessment (LCA). This was an issue that LCA had not tackled before. The approach, which is applied during the life cycle inventory phase (LCI), consists of quantifying the net change in the evapo(transpi)ration of the production system compared to the natural reference situation. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is used as the natural reference situation. In order to apply the method, we estimated PNV evapotranspiration adapted to local biogeographic conditions, on global dry lands, where soil-water consumption impacts can be critical. Values are reported at different spatial aggregation levels: 10-arcmin global grid, ecoregions (501 units), biomes (14 units), countries (124 units), continents, and a global average, to facilitate the assessment for different spatial information detail levels available in the LCI. The method is intended to be used in rain-fed agriculture and rainwater harvesting contexts, which includes direct soil moisture uptake by plants and rainwater harvested and then reused in production systems. The paper provides the necessary LCI method and data for further development of impact assessment models and characterization factors to evaluate the environmental effects of the net change in evapo(transpi)ration.

Ocean acidification compromises a planktic calcifier with implications for global carbon cycling.

PubMed

Davis, Catherine V; Rivest, Emily B; Hill, Tessa M; Gaylord, Brian; Russell, Ann D; Sanford, Eric

2017-05-22

Anthropogenically-forced changes in ocean chemistry at both the global and regional scale have the potential to negatively impact calcifying plankton, which play a key role in ecosystem functioning and marine carbon cycling. We cultured a globally important calcifying marine plankter (the foraminifer, Globigerina bulloides) under an ecologically relevant range of seawater pH (7.5 to 8.3 total scale). Multiple metrics of calcification and physiological performance varied with pH. At pH > 8.0, increased calcification occurred without a concomitant rise in respiration rates. However, as pH declined from 8.0 to 7.5, calcification and oxygen consumption both decreased, suggesting a reduced ability to precipitate shell material accompanied by metabolic depression. Repair of spines, important for both buoyancy and feeding, was also reduced at pH < 7.7. The dependence of calcification, respiration, and spine repair on seawater pH suggests that foraminifera will likely be challenged by future ocean conditions. Furthermore, the nature of these effects has the potential to actuate changes in vertical transport of organic and inorganic carbon, perturbing feedbacks to regional and global marine carbon cycling. The biological impacts of seawater pH have additional, important implications for the use of foraminifera as paleoceanographic indicators.

SASS: A symmetry adapted stochastic search algorithm exploiting site symmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, Steven E.; Schleyer, Paul v. R.; Schaefer, Henry F.

2007-03-01

A simple symmetry adapted search algorithm (SASS) exploiting point group symmetry increases the efficiency of systematic explorations of complex quantum mechanical potential energy surfaces. In contrast to previously described stochastic approaches, which do not employ symmetry, candidate structures are generated within simple point groups, such as C2, Cs, and C2v. This facilitates efficient sampling of the 3N-6 Pople's dimensional configuration space and increases the speed and effectiveness of quantum chemical geometry optimizations. Pople's concept of framework groups [J. Am. Chem. Soc. 102, 4615 (1980)] is used to partition the configuration space into structures spanning all possible distributions of sets of symmetry equivalent atoms. This provides an efficient means of computing all structures of a given symmetry with minimum redundancy. This approach also is advantageous for generating initial structures for global optimizations via genetic algorithm and other stochastic global search techniques. Application of the SASS method is illustrated by locating 14 low-lying stationary points on the cc-pwCVDZ ROCCSD(T) potential energy surface of Li5H2. The global minimum structure is identified, along with many unique, nonintuitive, energetically favorable isomers.

Temperature-Induced Viral Resistance in Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae)

PubMed Central

Kendrick, B. Jacob; DiTullio, Giacomo R.; Cyronak, Tyler J.; Fulton, James M.; Van Mooy, Benjamin A. S.; Bidle, Kay D.

2014-01-01

Annual Emiliania huxleyi blooms (along with other coccolithophorid species) play important roles in the global carbon and sulfur cycles. E. huxleyi blooms are routinely terminated by large, host-specific dsDNA viruses, (Emiliania huxleyi Viruses; EhVs), making these host-virus interactions a driving force behind their potential impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Given projected increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change, it is imperative to understand the effects of temperature on E. huxleyi’s susceptibility to viral infection and its production of climatically active dimethylated sulfur species (DSS). Here we demonstrate that a 3°C increase in temperature induces EhV-resistant phenotypes in three E. huxleyi strains and that successful virus infection impacts DSS pool sizes. We also examined cellular polar lipids, given their documented roles in regulating host-virus interactions in this system, and propose that alterations to membrane-bound surface receptors are responsible for the observed temperature-induced resistance. Our findings have potential implications for global biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate and for deciphering the particular mechanism(s) by which some E. huxleyi strains exhibit viral resistance. PMID:25405345

Temperature-induced viral resistance in Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae).

PubMed

Kendrick, B Jacob; DiTullio, Giacomo R; Cyronak, Tyler J; Fulton, James M; Van Mooy, Benjamin A S; Bidle, Kay D

2014-01-01

Annual Emiliania huxleyi blooms (along with other coccolithophorid species) play important roles in the global carbon and sulfur cycles. E. huxleyi blooms are routinely terminated by large, host-specific dsDNA viruses, (Emiliania huxleyi Viruses; EhVs), making these host-virus interactions a driving force behind their potential impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Given projected increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change, it is imperative to understand the effects of temperature on E. huxleyi's susceptibility to viral infection and its production of climatically active dimethylated sulfur species (DSS). Here we demonstrate that a 3°C increase in temperature induces EhV-resistant phenotypes in three E. huxleyi strains and that successful virus infection impacts DSS pool sizes. We also examined cellular polar lipids, given their documented roles in regulating host-virus interactions in this system, and propose that alterations to membrane-bound surface receptors are responsible for the observed temperature-induced resistance. Our findings have potential implications for global biogeochemical cycles in a warming climate and for deciphering the particular mechanism(s) by which some E. huxleyi strains exhibit viral resistance.

Global implications of China's healthcare reform.

PubMed

Yan, Fei; Tang, Shenglan; Zhang, Jian

2016-01-01

The ongoing healthcare reform in China has a powerful spillover effect beyond the health sector and the borders of China. A successful completion of the Chinese reform will offer a new model for social justice development, shift the global economy toward sustainability and create a new hub for science and technology in medical and health science. However, reforming the healthcare system in the most populated country is a daunting task. China will not live up to its promise, and all the potentials may end with hype not hope if coherent national strategies are not constructed and state-of-the-art navigation is not achieved with staggering domestic and global challenges. The cost of failure will be immensely high, socioeconomic costs for Chinese and an opportunity cost for the world as a whole. A full appreciation of the global implications of China's healthcare reform is crucial in keeping China receptive toward good practices evidence-approved elsewhere and open minded to fulfill its international obligations. More critically, the appreciation yields constructive engagements from global community toward a joint development and global prosperity. The current report provides a multiple disciplinary assessment on the global implications of the healthcare reform in China. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A framework on the emergence and effectiveness of global health networks.

PubMed

Shiffman, Jeremy; Quissell, Kathryn; Schmitz, Hans Peter; Pelletier, David L; Smith, Stephanie L; Berlan, David; Gneiting, Uwe; Van Slyke, David; Mergel, Ines; Rodriguez, Mariela; Walt, Gill

2016-04-01

Since 1990 mortality and morbidity decline has been more extensive for some conditions prevalent in low- and middle-income countries than for others. One reason may be differences in the effectiveness of global health networks, which have proliferated in recent years. Some may be more capable than others in attracting attention to a condition, in generating funding, in developing interventions and in convincing national governments to adopt policies. This article introduces a supplement on the emergence and effectiveness of global health networks. The supplement examines networks concerned with six global health problems: tuberculosis (TB), pneumonia, tobacco use, alcohol harm, maternal mortality and newborn deaths. This article presents a conceptual framework delineating factors that may shape why networks crystallize more easily surrounding some issues than others, and once formed, why some are better able than others to shape policy and public health outcomes. All supplement papers draw on this framework. The framework consists of 10 factors in three categories: (1) features of the networks and actors that comprise them, including leadership, governance arrangements, network composition and framing strategies; (2) conditions in the global policy environment, including potential allies and opponents, funding availability and global expectations concerning which issues should be prioritized; (3) and characteristics of the issue, including severity, tractability and affected groups. The article also explains the design of the project, which is grounded in comparison of networks surrounding three matched issues: TB and pneumonia, tobacco use and alcohol harm, and maternal and newborn survival. Despite similar burden and issue characteristics, there has been considerably greater policy traction for the first in each pair. The supplement articles aim to explain the role of networks in shaping these differences, and collectively represent the first comparative effort to understand the emergence and effectiveness of global health networks. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2015; all rights reserved.

Global MHD simulations driven by idealized Alfvenic fluctuations in the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claudepierre, S. G.

2017-12-01

High speed solar wind streams (HSSs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) often lead to MeV electron flux enhancements the Earth's outer radiation belt. The relevant physical processes responsible for these enhancements are not entirely understood. We investigate the potential role that solar wind Alfvenic fluctuations, intrinsic structures embedded in the HSS/CIRs, play in radiation belt dynamics. In particular, we explore the hypothesis that magnetospheric ultra-low frequency (ULF) pulsations driven by interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations are the intermediary mechanism responsible for the pronounced effect that HSS/CIRs have on the outer electron radiation belt. We examine these effects using global, three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations driven by idealized interplanetary Alfvenic fluctuations, both monochromatic and broadband noise (Kolmogorov turbulence).

Lessons learned from the casualties of war: battlefield medicine and its implication for global trauma care

PubMed Central

Boyle, Peter; Autier, Philippe; van Wees, Sibylle Herzig; Sullivan, Richard

2015-01-01

Summary According to the Global Burden of Disease, trauma is now responsible for five million deaths each year. High-income countries have made great strides in reducing trauma-related mortality figures but low–middle-income countries have been left behind with high trauma-related fatality rates, primarily in the younger population. Much of the progress high-income countries have made in managing trauma rests on advances developed in their armed forces. This analysis looks at the recent advances in high-income military trauma systems and the potential transferability of those developments to the civilian health systems particularly in low–middle-income countries. It also evaluates some potential lifesaving trauma management techniques, proven effective in the military, and the barriers preventing these from being implemented in civilian settings. PMID:25792616

Global anthropogenic methane emissions 2005-2030: technical mitigation potentials and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höglund-Isaksson, L.

2012-10-01

This paper presents estimates of current and future global anthropogenic methane emissions, their technical mitigation potential and associated costs for the period 2005 to 2030. The analysis uses the GAINS model framework to estimate emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for all major sources of anthropogenic methane for 83 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. Global emissions are estimated at 323 Mt methane in 2005, with an expected increase to 414 Mt methane in 2030. The technical mitigation potential is estimated at 195 Mt methane in 2030, whereof about 80 percent is found attainable at a marginal cost less than 20 Euro t-1 CO2eq when using a social planner cost perspective. With a private investor cost perspective, the corresponding fraction is only 30 percent. Major uncertainty sources in emission estimates are identified and discussed.

Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine—regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deppermann, Andre; Balkovič, Juraj; Bundle, Sophie-Charlotte; Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Havlik, Petr; Leclère, David; Lesiv, Myroslava; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

2018-02-01

Russia and Ukraine are countries with relatively large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and substantial yield gaps. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of Russian and Ukrainian crop production potentials and we analyze possible impacts of their future utilization, on a regional as well as global scale. To this end, the total amount of available abandoned land and potential yields in Russia and Ukraine are estimated and explicitly implemented in an economic agricultural sector model. We find that cereal (barley, corn, and wheat) production in Russia and Ukraine could increase by up to 64% in 2030 to 267 million tons, compared to a baseline scenario. Oilseeds (rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower) production could increase by 84% to 50 million tons, respectively. In comparison to the baseline, common net exports of Ukraine and Russia could increase by up to 86.3 million tons of cereals and 18.9 million tons of oilseeds in 2030, representing 4% and 3.6% of the global production of these crops, respectively. Furthermore, we find that production potentials due to intensification are ten times larger than potentials due to recultivation of abandoned land. Consequently, we also find stronger impacts from intensification at the global scale. A utilization of crop production potentials in Russia and Ukraine could globally save up to 21 million hectares of cropland and reduce average global crop prices by more than 3%.

Global Solutions for the zero-energy Novikov–Veselov equation by inverse scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Music, Michael; Perry, Peter

2018-07-01

Using the inverse scattering method, we construct global solutions to the Novikov–Veselov equation for real-valued decaying initial data q 0 with the property that the associated Schrödinger operator is nonnegative. Such initial data are either critical (an arbitrarily small perturbation of the potential makes the operator nonpositive) or subcritical (sufficiently small perturbations of the potential preserve non-negativity of the operator). Previously, Lassas, Mueller, Siltanen and Stahel proved global existence for critical potentials, also called potentials of conductivity type. We extend their results to include the much larger class of subcritical potentials. We show that the subcritical potentials form an open set and that the critical potentials form the nowhere dense boundary of this open set. Our analysis draws on previous work of the first author and on ideas of Grinevich and Manakov.

Pre-treated Populus tomentiglandulosa extract inhibits neuronal loss and alleviates gliosis in the gerbil hippocampal CA1 area induced by transient global cerebral ischemia

PubMed Central

Park, Joon Ha; Lee, Tae-Kyeong; Ahn, Ji Hyeon; Shin, Bich-Na; Cho, Jeong Hwi; Kim, In Hye; Lee, Jae-Chul; Kim, Jong-Dai; Lee, Young Joo; Kang, Il Jun; Hong, Seongkweon; Kim, Yang Hee; Jeon, Yong Hwan

2017-01-01

The genus Populus (poplar) belonging to the Salicaceae family has been used in traditional medicine, and its several species show various pharmacological properties including antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects. No study regarding protective effects of Populus species against cerebral ischemia has been reported. Therefore, in the present study, we examined neuroprotective effects of ethanol extract from Populus tomentiglandulosa (Korea poplar) in the hippocampal cornu ammonis (CA1) area of gerbils subjected to 5 minutes of transient global cerebral ischemia. Pretreatment with 200 mg/kg of P. tomentiglandulosa extract effectively protected CA1 pyramidal neurons from transient global cerebral ischemia. In addition, glial fibrillary acidic protein immunoreactive astrocytes and ionized calcium binding adapter molecule 1 immunoreactive microglia were significantly diminished in the ischemic CA1 area by pretreatment with 200 mg/kg of P. tomentiglandulosa extract. Briefly, our results indicate that pretreatment with P. tomentiglandulosa extract protects neurons from transient cerebral ischemic injury and diminish cerebral ischemia-induced reactive gliosis in ischemic CA1 area. Based on these results, we suggest that P. tomentiglandulosa can be used as a potential candidate for prevention of ischemic injury. PMID:29354300

Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K.; Hansson, Lars-Anders

2016-07-01

A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established.

Global carbon stocks and potential emissions due to mangrove deforestation from 2000 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Stuart E.; Friess, Daniel A.

2018-03-01

Mangrove forests store high densities of organic carbon, which, when coupled with high rates of deforestation, means that mangroves have the potential to contribute substantially to carbon emissions. Consequently, mangroves are strong candidates for inclusion in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and payments for ecosystem services (PES) programmes that financially incentivize the conservation of forested carbon stocks. This study quantifies annual mangrove carbon stocks from 2000 to 2012 at the global, national and sub-national levels, and global carbon emissions resulting from deforestation over the same time period. Globally, mangroves stored 4.19 Pg of carbon in 2012, with Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea accounting for more than 50% of the global stock. 2.96 Pg of the global carbon stock is contained within the soil and 1.23 Pg in the living biomass. Two percent of global mangrove carbon was lost between 2000 and 2012, equivalent to a maximum potential of 316,996,250 t of CO2 emissions.

Visual Attention to Global and Local Stimulus Properties in 6-Month-Old Infants: Individual Differences and Event-Related Potentials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guy, Maggie W.; Reynolds, Greg D.; Zhang, Dantong

2013-01-01

Event-related potentials (ERPs) were utilized in an investigation of 21 six-month-olds' attention to and processing of global and local properties of hierarchical patterns. Overall, infants demonstrated an advantage for processing the overall configuration (i.e., global properties) of local features of hierarchical patterns; however,…

A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

2013-01-01

Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

International law's effects on health and its social determinants: protocol for a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Hoffman, Steven J; Hughsam, Matthew; Randhawa, Harkanwal; Sritharan, Lathika; Guyatt, Gordon; Lavis, John N; Røttingen, John-Arne

2016-04-16

In recent years, there have been numerous calls for global institutions to develop and enforce new international laws. International laws are, however, often blunt instruments with many uncertain benefits, costs, risks of harm, and trade-offs. Thus, they are probably not always appropriate solutions to global health challenges. Given these uncertainties and international law's potential importance for improving global health, the paucity of synthesized evidence addressing whether international laws achieve their intended effects or whether they are superior in comparison to other approaches is problematic. Ten electronic bibliographic databases were searched using predefined search strategies, including MEDLINE, Global Health, CINAHL, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Dissertations and Theses, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, International Political Science Abstracts, Social Sciences Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, PAIS International, and Worldwide Political Science Abstracts. Two reviewers will independently screen titles and abstracts using predefined inclusion criteria. Pairs of reviewers will then independently screen the full-text of articles for inclusion using predefined inclusion criteria and then independently extract data and assess risk of bias for included studies. Where feasible, results will be pooled through subgroup analyses, meta-analyses, and meta-regression techniques. The findings of this review will contribute to a better understanding of the expected benefits and possible harms of using international law to address different kinds of problems, thereby providing important evidence-informed guidance on when and how it can be effectively introduced and implemented by countries and global institutions. PROSPERO CRD42015019830.

The Effects of Variations in El Niño and La Niña Patterns on World Food Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Robertson, R.; Zhu, T.; Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a variation in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and corresponding air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. During El Niño events (high SST), some global regions are wetter than normal, and others are dryer than normal. The inverse is true of La Niña events. El-Niño events are strongly correlated with drought extent and severity, especially in the Tropics. La Niña events are correlated with drought in other areas, though the global effect is less significant than that of El-Niños. GCM-based studies exploring changes in atmospheric mechanisms suggest that El Niño events may become more frequent in the next century, while those exploring changes in oceanic mechanisms suggest that La-Niñas may become more frequent. Overall, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that there is "low confidence" in our ability to project future ENSO patterns. In order to test the effect of changing ENSO patterns on global food production, we have developed a Markov Chain to generate multiple scenarios of ENSO frequency and strength, and explore each generated timeseries using the IMPACT Model, which is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security. Results identify the potential consequences of changes in ENSO patterns on global food production and markets.

Medical tourism's impacts on health worker migration in the Caribbean: five examples and their implications for global justice.

PubMed

Snyder, Jeremy; Crooks, Valorie A; Johnston, Rory; Adams, Krystyna; Whitmore, Rebecca

2015-01-01

Medical tourism is a practice where individuals cross international borders in order to access medical care. This practice can impact the global distribution of health workers by potentially reducing the emigration of health workers from destination countries for medical tourists and affecting the internal distribution of these workers. Little has been said, however, about the impacts of medical tourism on the immigration of health workers to medical tourism destinations. We discuss five patterns of medical tourism-driven health worker migration to medical tourism destinations: 1) long-term international migration; 2) long-term diasporic migration; 3) long-term migration and 'black sheep'; 4) short-term migration via time share; and 5) short-term migration via patient-provider dyad. These patterns of health worker migration have repercussions for global justice that include potential negative impacts on the following: 1) health worker training; 2) health worker distributions; 3) local provision of care; and 4) local economies. In order to address these potential negative impacts, policy makers in destination countries should work to ensure that changes in health worker training and licensure aimed at promoting the medical tourism sector are also supportive of the health needs of the domestic population. Policy makers in both source and destination countries should be aware of the effects of medical tourism on health worker flows both into and out of medical tourism destinations and work to ensure that the potential harms of these worker flows to both groups are mitigated.

Medical tourism's impacts on health worker migration in the Caribbean: five examples and their implications for global justice

PubMed Central

Snyder, Jeremy; Crooks, Valorie A.; Johnston, Rory; Adams, Krystyna; Whitmore, Rebecca

2015-01-01

Medical tourism is a practice where individuals cross international borders in order to access medical care. This practice can impact the global distribution of health workers by potentially reducing the emigration of health workers from destination countries for medical tourists and affecting the internal distribution of these workers. Little has been said, however, about the impacts of medical tourism on the immigration of health workers to medical tourism destinations. We discuss five patterns of medical tourism-driven health worker migration to medical tourism destinations: 1) long-term international migration; 2) long-term diasporic migration; 3) long-term migration and ‘black sheep’; 4) short-term migration via time share; and 5) short-term migration via patient-provider dyad. These patterns of health worker migration have repercussions for global justice that include potential negative impacts on the following: 1) health worker training; 2) health worker distributions; 3) local provision of care; and 4) local economies. In order to address these potential negative impacts, policy makers in destination countries should work to ensure that changes in health worker training and licensure aimed at promoting the medical tourism sector are also supportive of the health needs of the domestic population. Policy makers in both source and destination countries should be aware of the effects of medical tourism on health worker flows both into and out of medical tourism destinations and work to ensure that the potential harms of these worker flows to both groups are mitigated. PMID:25865122

Medical Student Perceptions of Global Surgery at an Academic Institution: Identifying Gaps in Global Health Education.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Murray, Matthew; Casey, Kathleen M

2017-12-01

Robust global health demands access to safe, affordable, timely surgical care for all. The long-term success of global surgery requires medical students to understand and engage with this emerging field. The authors characterized medical students' perceptions of surgical care relative to other fields within global health. An optional, anonymous survey was given to all Johns Hopkins medical students from February to March 2016 to assess perceptions of surgical care and its role in global health. Of 480 students, 365 (76%) completed the survey, with 150 (41%) reporting global health interests. One-third (34%) of responding students felt that surgical care is one of two fields with the greatest potential global health impact in the future, second to infectious disease (49%). A minority (28%) correctly identified that trauma results in more deaths worldwide than obstetric complications or HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria combined. Relative to other examined fields, students perceived surgical care as the least preventive and cost-effective, and few students (3%) considered adequate surgical care the best indicator of a robust health care system. Students believed that practicing in a surgical field was least amenable to pursuing a global health career, citing several barriers. Medical students have several perceptions of global surgery that contradict current evidence and literature, which may have implications for their career choices. Opportunities to improve students' global health knowledge and awareness of global surgery career paths include updating curricula, fostering meaningful international academic opportunities, and creating centers of global surgery and global health consortia.

Comment on 'Current Budget of the Atmospheric Electric Global Circuit'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driscoll, Kevin T.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

1996-01-01

In this paper, three major issues relevant to Kasemir's new model will be addressed. The first concerns Kasemir's assertion that there are significant differences between the potentials associated with the new model and the conventional model. A recalculation of these potentials reveals that both models provide equivalent results for the potential difference between the Earth and ionosphere. The second issue to be addressed is Kasemir's assertion that discrepancies in the electric potentials associated with both models can be attributed to modeling the Earth as a sphere, instead of as a planar surface. A simple analytical comparison will demonstrate that differences in the equations for the potentials of the atmosphere derived with a spherical and a planar Earth are negligible for applications to global current flow. Finally, the third issue to be discussed is Kasemir's claim that numerous aspects of the conventional model are incorrect, including the role of the ionosphere in global current flow as well as the significance of cloud-to-ground lightning in supplying charge to the global circuit. In order to refute these misconceptions, it will be shown that these aspects related to the flow of charge in the atmosphere are accurately described by the conventional model of the global circuit.

Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide

PubMed Central

Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W. R.; Bange, Hermann W.

2012-01-01

We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N2O and N2O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N2O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N2O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N2O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N2O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N2O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr−1. This is in agreement with estimates of the global N2O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N2O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N2O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed. PMID:22451110

Characterizing the LANDSAT Global Long-Term Data Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arvidson, T.; Goward, S. N.; Williams, D. L.

2006-01-01

The effects of global climate change are fast becoming politically, sociologically, and personally important: increasing storm frequency and intensity, lengthening cycles of drought and flood, expanding desertification and soil salinization. A vital asset in the analysis of climate change on a global basis is the 34-year record of Landsat imagery. In recognition of its increasing importance, a detailed analysis of the Landsat observation coverage within the US archive was commissioned. Results to date indicate some unexpected gaps in the US-held archive. Fortunately, throughout the Landsat program, data have been downlinked routinely to International Cooperator (IC) ground stations for archival, processing, and distribution. These IC data could be combined with the current US holdings to build a nearly global, annual observation record over this 34-year period. Today, we have inadequate information as to which scenes are available from which IC archives. Our best estimate is that there are over four million digital scenes in the IC archives, compared with the nearly two million scenes held in the US archive. This vast pool of Landsat observations needs to be accurately documented, via metadata, to determine the existence of complementary scenes and to characterize the potential scope of the global Landsat observation record. Of course, knowing the extent and completeness of the data record is but the first step. It will be necessary to assure that the data record is easy to use, internally consistent in terms of calibration and data format, and fully accessible in order to fully realize its potential.

Tuberculosis-a World Health Organization Perspective.

PubMed

Sotgiu, Giovanni; Sulis, Giorgia; Matteelli, Alberto

2017-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) has implemented and scaled-up three important global public health strategies (i.e., DOTS, Stop TB, and End TB) to improve the international scenario. Their epidemiological impact was relevant, as they decreased the number of potential new cases of disease and death. However, the emergence and spread of TB/HIV coinfection and multidrug-resistant TB have hindered the progress towards the elimination of TB by 2050. More efforts are required to increase the global annual decline of the TB incidence rate. Political commitment is necessary, with global and national strategies oriented to the adoption and adaptation of the international, evidence-based recommendations on diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. Research and development activities should be planned to improve the current tools adopted to fight the disease. New rapid diagnostics, an updated and effective therapeutic armamentarium, and an effective preventive vaccine could represent the solution to address the current epidemiological threats.

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2222 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2372 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2072 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1772 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.773 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.822 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2072 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2372 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2122 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2072 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1873 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimizer with Varying Acceleration Coefficients for Finding the Most Stable Conformer of Small Molecules.

PubMed

Agrawal, Shikha; Silakari, Sanjay; Agrawal, Jitendra

2015-11-01

A novel parameter automation strategy for Particle Swarm Optimization called APSO (Adaptive PSO) is proposed. The algorithm is designed to efficiently control the local search and convergence to the global optimum solution. Parameters c1 controls the impact of the cognitive component on the particle trajectory and c2 controls the impact of the social component. Instead of fixing the value of c1 and c2 , this paper updates the value of these acceleration coefficients by considering time variation of evaluation function along with varying inertia weight factor in PSO. Here the maximum and minimum value of evaluation function is use to gradually decrease and increase the value of c1 and c2 respectively. Molecular energy minimization is one of the most challenging unsolved problems and it can be formulated as a global optimization problem. The aim of the present paper is to investigate the effect of newly developed APSO on the highly complex molecular potential energy function and to check the efficiency of the proposed algorithm to find the global minimum of the function under consideration. The proposed algorithm APSO is therefore applied in two cases: Firstly, for the minimization of a potential energy of small molecules with up to 100 degrees of freedom and finally for finding the global minimum energy conformation of 1,2,3-trichloro-1-flouro-propane molecule based on a realistic potential energy function. The computational results of all the cases show that the proposed method performs significantly better than the other algorithms. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Ethical, legal and societal considerations on Zika virus epidemics complications in scaling-up prevention and control strategies.

PubMed

Tambo, Ernest; Madjou, Ghislaine; Khayeka-Wandabwa, Christopher; Olalubi, Oluwasogo A; Chengho, Chryseis F; Khater, Emad I M

2017-08-25

Much of the fear and uncertainty around Zika epidemics stem from potential association between Zika virus (ZIKV) complications on infected pregnant women and risk of their babies being born with microcephaly and other neurological abnormalities. However, much remains unknown about its mode of transmission, diagnosis and long-term pathogenesis. Worries of these unknowns necessitate the need for effective and efficient psychosocial programs and medical-legal strategies to alleviate and mitigate ZIKV related burdens. In this light, local and global efforts in maintaining fundamental health principles of moral, medical and legal decision-making policies, and interventions to preserve and promote individual and collectiveHuman Rights, autonomy, protection of the most vulnerable, equity, dignity, integrity and beneficence that should not be confused and relegated by compassionate humanitarian assistance and support. This paper explores the potential medical and ethical-legal implications of ZIKV epidemics emergency response packages and strategies alongside optimizing reproductive and mental health policies, programs and best practice measures. Further long-term cross-borders operational research is required in elucidating Zika-related population-based epidemiology, ethical-medical and societal implications in guiding evidence-based local and global ZIKV maternal-child health complications related approaches and interventions. Core programs and interventions including future Zika safe and effective vaccines for global Zika immunization program in most vulnerable and affected countries and worldwide should be prioritized.

Rice management interventions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions: a review.

PubMed

Hussain, Saddam; Peng, Shaobing; Fahad, Shah; Khaliq, Abdul; Huang, Jianliang; Cui, Kehui; Nie, Lixiao

2015-03-01

Global warming is one of the gravest threats to crop production and environmental sustainability. Rice, the staple food of more than half of the world's population, is the most prominent cause of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture and gives way to global warming. The increasing demand for rice in the future has deployed tremendous concerns to reduce GHG emissions for minimizing the negative environmental impacts of rice cultivation. In this review, we presented a contemporary synthesis of existing data on how crop management practices influence emissions of GHGs in rice fields. We realized that modifications in traditional crop management regimes possess a huge potential to overcome GHG emissions. We examined and evaluated the different possible options and found that modifying tillage permutations and irrigation patterns, managing organic and fertilizer inputs, selecting suitable cultivar, and cropping regime can mitigate GHG emissions. Previously, many authors have discussed the feasibility principle and the influence of these practices on a single gas or, in particular, in the whole agricultural sector. Nonetheless, changes in management practices may influence more than one gas at the same time by different mechanisms or sometimes their effects may be antagonistic. Therefore, in the present attempt, we estimated the overall global warming potential of each approach to consider the magnitude of its effects on all gases and provided a comprehensive assessment of suitable crop management practices for reducing GHG emissions in rice culture.

Risks to global biodiversity from fossil-fuel production exceed those from biofuel production

DOE PAGES

Dale, Virginia H.; Parish, Esther S.; Kline, Keith L.

2014-12-02

Potential global biodiversity impacts from near-term gasoline production are compared to biofuel, a renewable liquid transportation fuel expected to substitute for gasoline in the near term (i.e., from now until c. 2030). Petroleum exploration activities are projected to extend across more than 5.8 billion ha of land and ocean worldwide (of which 3.1 billion is on land), much of which is in remote, fragile terrestrial ecosystems or off-shore oil fields that would remain relatively undisturbed if not for interest in fossil fuel production. Future biomass production for biofuels is projected to fall within 2.0 billion ha of land, most ofmore » which is located in areas already impacted by human activities. A comparison of likely fuel-source areas to the geospatial distribution of species reveals that both energy sources overlap with areas with high species richness and large numbers of threatened species. At the global scale, future petroleum production areas intersect more than double the area and higher total number of threatened species than future biofuel production. Energy options should be developed to optimize provisioning of ecosystem services while minimizing negative effects, which requires information about potential impacts on critical resources. Furthermore, energy conservation and identifying and effectively protecting habitats with high-conservation value are critical first steps toward protecting biodiversity under any fuel production scenario.« less

Risks to global biodiversity from fossil-fuel production exceed those from biofuel production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H.; Parish, Esther S.; Kline, Keith L.

Potential global biodiversity impacts from near-term gasoline production are compared to biofuel, a renewable liquid transportation fuel expected to substitute for gasoline in the near term (i.e., from now until c. 2030). Petroleum exploration activities are projected to extend across more than 5.8 billion ha of land and ocean worldwide (of which 3.1 billion is on land), much of which is in remote, fragile terrestrial ecosystems or off-shore oil fields that would remain relatively undisturbed if not for interest in fossil fuel production. Future biomass production for biofuels is projected to fall within 2.0 billion ha of land, most ofmore » which is located in areas already impacted by human activities. A comparison of likely fuel-source areas to the geospatial distribution of species reveals that both energy sources overlap with areas with high species richness and large numbers of threatened species. At the global scale, future petroleum production areas intersect more than double the area and higher total number of threatened species than future biofuel production. Energy options should be developed to optimize provisioning of ecosystem services while minimizing negative effects, which requires information about potential impacts on critical resources. Furthermore, energy conservation and identifying and effectively protecting habitats with high-conservation value are critical first steps toward protecting biodiversity under any fuel production scenario.« less

Global culture: A noise-induced transition in finite systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemm, Konstantin; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; Toral, Raúl; Miguel, Maxi San

2003-04-01

We analyze the effect of cultural drift, modeled as noise, in Axelrod’s model for the dissemination of culture. The disordered multicultural frozen configurations are found not to be stable. This general result is proven rigorously in d=1, where the dynamics is described in terms of a Lyapunov potential. In d=2, the dynamics is governed by the average relaxation time T of perturbations. Noise at a rate r≲T-1 induces monocultural configurations, whereas r≳T-1 sustains disorder. In the thermodynamic limit, the relaxation time diverges and global polarization persists in spite of a dynamics of local convergence.

Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Change on a Large Drained Pine Forest

Treesearch

Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; R. W. Skaggs; G. M Chescheir; J. E. Nettles

2006-01-01

A simulation study using a watershed scale forest hydrology model (DRAINWAT) was conducted to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of a 3,000 ha managed pine forest in coastal North Carolina. The model was first validated with a five-year (1996-2000) data set fro111 the study site and then run with 50-years (1951-00) of historic weather data...

Death of an ecosystem: perspectives on western white pine ecosystems of North America at the end of the twentieth century

Treesearch

Alan E. Harvey; James W. Byler; Geral I. McDonald; Leon F. Neuenschwander; Jonalea R. Tonn

2008-01-01

The effective loss of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.) in the white pine ecosystem has far-reaching effects on the sustainability of local forests and both regional and global forestry issues. Continuing trends in management of this forest type has the potential to put western white pine, as well as the ecosystem it once dominated, at very...

Global alpha-particle optical potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferdous, N.

1991-12-01

A search for a global optical potential (for alpha-particles) is described. It was not possible to find a potential that was valid for a wide range of energies and nuclei, even treating the absorbing potential as an adjustable parameter for each nucleus. For practical purposes the best that can be done is to define an average potential, and such a potential is compared with a wide range of experimental data. Its energy variation is determined by fitting the total reaction cross-section.

A strategic approach to the unfinished fortification agenda: feasibility, costs, and cost-effectiveness analysis of fortification programs in 48 countries.

PubMed

Fiedler, John L; Macdonald, Barbara

2009-12-01

Food fortification is a promising strategy for combating micronutrient deficiencies, which plague one-third of the world's population. Which foods to fortify, with which micronutrients, and in which countries remain essential questions that to date have not been addressed at the global level. To provide a tool for international agencies to identify and organize the next phase of the unfinished global fortification agenda by prioritizing roughly 250 potential interventions in 48 priority countries. By explicitly defining the structure and operations of the fortification interventions in a detailed and transparent manner, and incorporating a substantial amount of country-specific data, the study also provides a potentially useful starting point for policy discussions in each of the 48 countries, which--it is hoped--will help to catalyze the development of public-private partnerships and accelerate the introduction of fortification and reduction of micronutrient deficiencies. Forty-eight high-priority countries were identified, and the feasibility of fortifying vegetable oil and sugar with vitamin A and fortifying wheat flour and maize flour with two alternative multiple micronutrient formulations was assessed. One hundred twenty-two country-, food-, and fortification formulation-specific interventions were assessed to be feasible, and the costs of each intervention were estimated. Assuming a 30% reduction in the micronutrient deficiencies of the persons consuming the food, the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) saved by each of the programs was estimated. The cost per DALY saved was calculated for each of the 122 interventions, and the interventions were rank-ordered by cost-effectiveness. It is estimated that the 60 most cost-effective interventions would carry a 10-year price tag of US$1 billion and have costs per DALY saved ranging from US$1 to US$134. The single "best bet" intervention--i.e., the most cost-effective intervention--in each of the 48 countries was identified. This study provides a detailed, transparent, evidence-based approach to defining and estimating the costs and cost-effectiveness of the unfinished global fortification agenda in the 48 priority countries. Other considerations in designing a strategic approach to the unfinished global fortification agenda are also discussed.

Can Early Intervention Improve Maternal Well-Being? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Doyle, Orla; Delaney, Liam; O’Farrelly, Christine; Fitzpatrick, Nick; Daly, Michael

2017-01-01

Objective This study estimates the effect of a targeted early childhood intervention program on global and experienced measures of maternal well-being utilizing a randomized controlled trial design. The primary aim of the intervention is to improve children’s school readiness skills by working directly with parents to improve their knowledge of child development and parenting behavior. One potential externality of the program is well-being benefits for parents given its direct focus on improving parental coping, self-efficacy, and problem solving skills, as well as generating an indirect effect on parental well-being by targeting child developmental problems. Methods Participants from a socio-economically disadvantaged community are randomly assigned during pregnancy to an intensive 5-year home visiting parenting program or a control group. We estimate and compare treatment effects on multiple measures of global and experienced well-being using permutation testing to account for small sample size and a stepdown procedure to account for multiple testing. Results The intervention has no impact on global well-being as measured by life satisfaction and parenting stress or experienced negative affect using episodic reports derived from the Day Reconstruction Method (DRM). Treatment effects are observed on measures of experienced positive affect derived from the DRM and a measure of mood yesterday. Conclusion The limited treatment effects suggest that early intervention programs may produce some improvements in experienced positive well-being, but no effects on negative aspects of well-being. Different findings across measures may result as experienced measures of well-being avoid the cognitive biases that impinge upon global assessments. PMID:28095505

Measuring mental workload with the NASA-TLX needs to examine each dimension rather than relying on the global score: an example with driving.

PubMed

Galy, Edith; Paxion, Julie; Berthelon, Catherine

2018-04-01

The distinction between several components of mental workload is often made in the ergonomics literature. However, measurements used are often established from a global score, notably with several questionnaires that originally reflect several dimensions. The present study tested the effect of driving situation complexity, experience and subjective levels of tension and alertness on each dimension of the NASA-TLX questionnaire of workload, in order to highlight the potential influence of intrinsic, extraneous and germane load factors. The results showed that, in complex situation, mental, temporal and physical demand (load dimensions) increased, and that novice drivers presented high physical demand when subjective tension was low on performance. Moreover, increase of mental and physical demand increased effort. It thus, appears essential to distinguish the different components of mental workload used in the NASA-TLX questionnaire. Practitioner Summary: Currently, global score of NASA-TLX questionnaire is used to measure mental workload. Here, we considered independently each dimension of NASA-TLX, and results showed that mental load factors (driving situation complexity, experience, subjective tension and alertness) had a different effect on dimensions, questioning global score use to evaluate workload.

Erythropoietin protects CA1 neurons against global cerebral ischemia in rat: potential signaling mechanisms.

PubMed

Zhang, Feng; Signore, Armando P; Zhou, Zhigang; Wang, Suping; Cao, Guodong; Chen, Jun

2006-05-15

Erythropoietin (EPO) is a hormone that is neuroprotective in models of neurodegenerative diseases. This study examined whether EPO can protect against neuronal death in the CA1 region of the rat hippocampus following global cerebral ischemia. Recombinant human EPO was infused into the intracerebral ventricle either before or after the induction of ischemia produced by using the four-vessel-occlusion model in rat. Hippocampal CA1 neuron damage was ameliorated by infusion of 50 U EPO. Administration of EPO was neuroprotective if given 20 hr before or 20 min after ischemia, but not 1 hr following ischemia. Coinjection of the phosphoinositide 3 kinase inhibitor LY294002 with EPO inhibited the protective effects of EPO. Treatment with EPO induced phosphorylation of both AKT and its substrate, glycogen synthase kinase-3beta, in the CA1 region. EPO also enhanced the CA1 level of brain-derived neurotrophic factor. Finally, we determined that ERK activation played minor roles in EPO-mediated neuroprotection. These studies demonstrate that a single injection of EPO ICV up to 20 min after global ischemia is an effective neuroprotective agent and suggest that EPO is a viable candidate for treating global ischemic brain injury. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The potential impact of global warming on the efficacy of field margins sown for the conservation of bumble-bees.

PubMed

Memmott, Jane; Carvell, Claire; Pywell, Richard F; Craze, Paul G

2010-07-12

Climate change is expected to drive species extinct by reducing their survival, reproduction and habitat. Less well appreciated is the possibility that climate change could cause extinction by changing the ecological interactions between species. If ecologists, land managers and policy makers are to manage farmland biodiversity sustainably under global climate change, they need to understand the ways in which species interact with each other as this will affect the way they respond to climate change. Here, we consider the ability of nectar flower mixtures used in field margins to provide sufficient forage for bumble-bees under future climate change. We simulated the effect of global warming on the network of plant-pollinator interactions in two types of field margin: a four-species pollen and nectar mix and a six-species wildflower mix. While periods without flowering resources and periods with no food were rare, curtailment of the field season was very common for the bumble-bees in both mixtures. The effect of this, however, could be ameliorated by adding extra species at the start and end of the flowering season. The plant species that could be used to future-proof margins against global warming are discussed.

Land-use protection for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Müller, Christoph; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Dietrich, Jan Philipp

2014-12-01

Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon emissions and contributes substantially to global warming. Therefore, mechanisms that aim to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation are widely discussed. A central challenge is the avoidance of international carbon leakage if forest conservation is not implemented globally. Here, we show that forest conservation schemes, even if implemented globally, could lead to another type of carbon leakage by driving cropland expansion in non-forested areas that are not subject to forest conservation schemes (non-forest leakage). These areas have a smaller, but still considerable potential to store carbon. We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2 until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore, abandonment of agricultural land and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hampered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.

Potential ramifications of the global economic crisis on human-mediated dispersal of marine non-indigenous species.

PubMed

Floerl, Oliver; Coutts, Ashley

2009-11-01

The global economy is currently experiencing one of its biggest contractions on record. A sharp decline in global imports and exports since 2008 has affected global merchant vessel traffic, the principal mode of bulk commodity transport around the world. During the first quarter of 2009, 10% and 25% of global container and refrigerated vessels, respectively, were reported to be unemployed. A large proportion of these vessels are lying idle at anchor in the coastal waters of South East Asia, sometimes for periods of greater than 3 months. Whilst at anchor, the hulls of such vessels will develop diverse and extensive assemblages of marine biofouling species. Once back in service, these vessels are at risk of transporting higher-than-normal quantities of marine organisms between their respective global trading ports. We discuss the potential ramifications of the global economic crisis on the spread of marine non-indigenous species via global commercial shipping.

Performance Analysis of a Ring Current Model Driven by Global MHD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, A.; Keller, K. A.; Fok, M.; Hesse, M.; Gombosi, T.

2003-12-01

Effectively modeling the high-energy particles in Earth's inner magnetosphere has the potential to improve safety in both manned and unmanned spacecraft. One model of this environment is the Fok Ring Current Model. This model can utilize as inputs both solar wind data, and empirical ionospheric electric field and magnetic field models. Alternatively, we have a procedure which allows the model to be driven by outputs from the BATS-R-US global MHD model. By using in-situ satellite data we will compare the predictive capability of this model in its original stand-alone form, to that of the model when driven by the BATS-R-US Global Magnetosphere Model. As a basis for comparison we use the April 2002 and May 2003 storms where suitable LANL geosynchronous data are available.

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

PubMed Central

Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Bondeau, Alberte; Lauk, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Plutzar, Christoph; Steinberger, Julia K.

2011-01-01

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y−1, depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply. PMID:22211004

40 CFR 52.1073 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (h)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1272 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2172 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1522 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (c)(4...

40 CFR 52.572 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1022 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1022 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1272 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1272 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.2172 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1929 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... greenhouse gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from...

40 CFR 52.2323 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...

40 CFR 52.1022 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of...