Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics.

PubMed

Colwell, Robert K; Brehm, Gunnar; Cardelús, Catherine L; Gilman, Alex C; Longino, John T

2008-10-10

Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.

Applications of a global nuclear-structure model to studies of the heaviest elements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.

1993-10-01

We present some new results on heavy-element nuclear-structure properties calculated on the basis of the finite-range droplet model and folded-Yukawa single-particle potential. Specifically, we discuss calculations of nuclear ground-state masses and microscopic corrections, {alpha}-decay properties, {beta}-decay properties, fission potential-energy surfaces, and spontaneous-fission half-lives. These results, obtained in a global nuclear-structure approach, are particularly reliable for describing the stability properties of the heaviest elements.

A transatlantic perspective on 20 emerging issues in biological engineering.

PubMed

Wintle, Bonnie C; Boehm, Christian R; Rhodes, Catherine; Molloy, Jennifer C; Millett, Piers; Adam, Laura; Breitling, Rainer; Carlson, Rob; Casagrande, Rocco; Dando, Malcolm; Doubleday, Robert; Drexler, Eric; Edwards, Brett; Ellis, Tom; Evans, Nicholas G; Hammond, Richard; Haseloff, Jim; Kahl, Linda; Kuiken, Todd; Lichman, Benjamin R; Matthewman, Colette A; Napier, Johnathan A; ÓhÉigeartaigh, Seán S; Patron, Nicola J; Perello, Edward; Shapira, Philip; Tait, Joyce; Takano, Eriko; Sutherland, William J

2017-11-14

Advances in biological engineering are likely to have substantial impacts on global society. To explore these potential impacts we ran a horizon scanning exercise to capture a range of perspectives on the opportunities and risks presented by biological engineering. We first identified 70 potential issues, and then used an iterative process to prioritise 20 issues that we considered to be emerging, to have potential global impact, and to be relatively unknown outside the field of biological engineering. The issues identified may be of interest to researchers, businesses and policy makers in sectors such as health, energy, agriculture and the environment.

How climate change might influence the potential distribution of weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens)?

PubMed

Padalia, Hitendra; Srivastava, Vivek; Kushwaha, S P S

2015-04-01

Invasive species and climate change are considered as the most serious global environmental threats. In this study, we investigated the influence of projected global climate change on the potential distribution of one of the world's most successful invader weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit.). We used spatial data on 20 environmental variables at a grid resolution of 5 km, and 564 presence records of bushmint from its native and introduced range. The climatic profiles of the native and invaded sites were analyzed in a multi-variate space in order to examine the differences in the position of climatic niches. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution of bushmint using presence records from entire range (invaded and native) along with 14 eco-physiologically relevant predictor variables. Subsequently, the trained MaxEnt model was fed with Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) climate projections to predict potential distribution of bushmint by the year 2050 under A2a and B2a emission scenarios. MaxEnt predictions were very accurate with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.95. The results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated that climatic niche of bushmint on the invaded sites is not entirely similar to its climatic niche in the native range. A vast area spread between 34 ° 02' north and 28 ° 18' south latitudes in tropics was predicted climatically suitable for bushmint. West and middle Africa, tropical southeast Asia, and northern Australia were predicted at high invasion risk. Study indicates enlargement, retreat, or shift across bushmint's invasion range under the influence of climate change. Globally, bushmint's potential distribution might shrink in future with more shrinkage for A2a scenario than B2a. The study outcome has immense potential for undertaking effective preventive/control measures and long-term management strategies for regions/countries, which are at higher risk of bushmint's invasion.

Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

Treesearch

Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2006-01-01

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

The potential of land management to decrease global warming from climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Hausfather, Z.; Jones, A. D.; Silver, W. L.

2016-12-01

Recent evidence suggests that negative emissions (i.e. sequestration) is critical to slow climate change (IPCC, 2013; Gasser et al, 2015). Agricultural (crop and grazing) lands have the potential to act as a significant carbon sink. These ecosystems cover a significant proportion of the global land surface, and are largely degraded with regard to soil carbon due to previous management practices (Bai et al, 2008). However, few studies have examined the required scale of land management interventions that would be required to make a significant contribution to a portfolio of efforts aimed at limiting anthropogenic influences on global mean temperature. To address this, we modelled the quantitative effect of a range of soil carbon sequestration rates on global temperature to 2100. Results showed that by assuming a baseline emissions scenario outlined in RCP 2.6, the sequestration of an additional 0.7 Pg C per year through improved agricultural land management practices would produce a reduction of 0.1 degrees C from predicted global temperatures by the year 2100. We also compiled previous estimates of global carbon sequestration potential of agricultural soils to compare with our theoretical prediction to determine whether carbon sequestration through existing land management practices has potential to significantly reduce global temperatures. Assuming long-term soil carbon uptake, the combined potential of agricultural land management-based mitigation approaches exceeded 0.25 degrees C warming reduction by the year 2100. However, results were highly sensitive to potential carbon saturation, defined as the maximum threshold for carbon storage in soil. Our results suggest that current land management technologies and available land area exist and could make a measureable impact on warming reduction. Results also highlighted potential carbon saturation as a key gap in knowledge.

A transatlantic perspective on 20 emerging issues in biological engineering

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Catherine; Molloy, Jennifer C; Millett, Piers; Adam, Laura; Breitling, Rainer; Carlson, Rob; Casagrande, Rocco; Dando, Malcolm; Doubleday, Robert; Drexler, Eric; Edwards, Brett; Ellis, Tom; Evans, Nicholas G; Hammond, Richard; Haseloff, Jim; Kahl, Linda; Kuiken, Todd; Lichman, Benjamin R; Matthewman, Colette A; Napier, Johnathan A; ÓhÉigeartaigh, Seán S; Patron, Nicola J; Perello, Edward; Shapira, Philip; Tait, Joyce; Takano, Eriko; Sutherland, William J

2017-01-01

Advances in biological engineering are likely to have substantial impacts on global society. To explore these potential impacts we ran a horizon scanning exercise to capture a range of perspectives on the opportunities and risks presented by biological engineering. We first identified 70 potential issues, and then used an iterative process to prioritise 20 issues that we considered to be emerging, to have potential global impact, and to be relatively unknown outside the field of biological engineering. The issues identified may be of interest to researchers, businesses and policy makers in sectors such as health, energy, agriculture and the environment. PMID:29132504

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability.

PubMed

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-08-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26-141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture.

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability

PubMed Central

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-01-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26–141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture. PMID:23576836

Methane emissions partially offset “blue carbon” burial in mangroves

PubMed Central

Maher, Damien T.

2018-01-01

Organic matter burial in mangrove forests results in the removal and long-term storage of atmospheric CO2, so-called “blue carbon.” However, some of this organic matter is metabolized and returned to the atmosphere as CH4. Because CH4 has a higher global warming potential than the CO2 fixed in the organic matter, it can offset the CO2 removed via carbon burial. We provide the first estimate of the global magnitude of this offset. Our results show that high CH4 evasion rates have the potential to partially offset blue carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments on average by 20% (sensitivity analysis offset range, 18 to 22%) using the 20-year global warming potential. Hence, mangrove sediment and water CH4 emissions should be accounted for in future blue carbon assessments.

Map of Life - A Dashboard for Monitoring Planetary Species Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jetz, W.

2016-12-01

Geographic information about biodiversity is vital for understanding the many services nature provides and their potential changes, yet remains unreliable and often insufficient. By integrating a wide range of knowledge about species distributions and their dynamics over time, Map of Life supports global biodiversity education, monitoring, research and decision-making. Built on a scalable web platform geared for large biodiversity and environmental data, Map of Life endeavors provides species range information globally and species lists for any area. With data and technology provided by NASA and Google Earth Engine, tools under development use remote sensing-based environmental layers to enable on-the-fly predictions of species distributions, range changes, and early warning signals for threatened species. The ultimate vision is a globally connected, collaborative knowledge- and tool-base for regional and local biodiversity decision-making, education, monitoring, and projection. For currently available tools, more information and to follow progress, go to MOL.org.

Application of advanced technologies to future military transports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Rodney L.; Lange, Roy H.; Wagner, Richard D.

1990-01-01

Long range military transport technologies are addressed with emphasis of defining the potential benefits of the hybrid laminar flow control (HLFC) concept currently being flight tested. Results of a 1990's global range transport study are presented showing the expected payoff from application of advanced technologies. Technology forecast for military transports is also presented.

Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa Ana; Muñoz, Jesús; Rodríguez-Tapia, Gerardo; Feria Arroyo, T. Patricia; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex

2013-01-01

Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful. PMID:24260411

A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

PubMed

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.

A GIS Model Predicting Potential Distributions of a Lineage: A Test Case on Hermit Spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

PubMed Central

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Background Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Conclusions Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change. PMID:22238692

Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.

PubMed Central

Reiter, P

2001-01-01

Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence. PMID:11250812

Impact of Brexit on the forest products industry of the United Kingdom and the rest of the world

Treesearch

Craig M. T. Johnston; Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model was applied to forecast the effect of Brexit on the global forest products industry to2003 under two scenarios; an optimistic and pessimistic future storyline regarding the potential economic effect of Brexit. The forecasts integrated a range of gross domestic product growth rates using an average of the optimistic and...

Productivity ranges of sustainable biomass potentials from non-agricultural land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schueler, Vivian; Fuss, Sabine; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Weddige, Ulf; Beringer, Tim

2016-07-01

Land is under pressure from a number of demands, including the need for increased supplies of bioenergy. While bioenergy is an important ingredient in many pathways compatible with reaching the 2 °C target, areas where cultivation of the biomass feedstock would be most productive appear to co-host other important ecosystems services. We categorize global geo-data on land availability into productivity deciles, and provide a geographically explicit assessment of potentials that are concurrent with EU sustainability criteria. The deciles unambiguously classify the global productivity range of potential land currently not in agricultural production for biomass cultivation. Results show that 53 exajoule (EJ) sustainable biomass potential are available from 167 million hectares (Mha) with a productivity above 10 tons of dry matter per hectare and year (tD Mha-1 a-1), while additional 33 EJ are available on 264 Mha with yields between 4 and 10 tD M ha-1 a-1: some regions lose less of their highly productive potentials to sustainability concerns than others and regional contributions to bioenergy potentials shift when less productive land is considered. Challenges to limit developments to the exploitation of sustainable potentials arise in Latin America, Africa and Developing Asia, while new opportunities emerge for Transition Economies and OECD countries to cultivate marginal land.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Quantifying global dust devil occurrence from meteorological analyses

PubMed Central

Jemmett-Smith, Bradley C; Marsham, John H; Knippertz, Peter; Gilkeson, Carl A

2015-01-01

Dust devils and nonrotating dusty plumes are effective uplift mechanisms for fine particles, but their contribution to the global dust budget is uncertain. By applying known bulk thermodynamic criteria to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses, we provide the first global hourly climatology of potential dust devil and dusty plume (PDDP) occurrence. In agreement with observations, activity is highest from late morning into the afternoon. Combining PDDP frequencies with dust source maps and typical emission values gives the best estimate of global contributions of 3.4% (uncertainty 0.9–31%), 1 order of magnitude lower than the only estimate previously published. Total global hours of dust uplift by dry convection are ∼0.002% of the dust-lifting winds resolved by ECMWF, consistent with dry convection making a small contribution to global uplift. Reducing uncertainty requires better knowledge of factors controlling PDDP occurrence, source regions, and dust fluxes induced by dry convection. Key Points Global potential dust devil occurrence quantified from meteorological analyses Climatology shows realistic diurnal cycle and geographical distribution Best estimate of global contribution of 3.4% is 10 times smaller than the previous estimate PMID:26681815

Global wetlands: Potential distribution, wetland loss, and status.

PubMed

Hu, Shengjie; Niu, Zhenguo; Chen, Yanfen; Li, Lifeng; Zhang, Haiying

2017-05-15

Even though researchers have paid a great deal of attention to wetland loss and status, the actual extent of wetland loss on a global scale, especially the loss caused directly by human activities, and the actual extent of currently surviving wetlands remains uncertain. This paper simulated the potential distribution of global wetlands by employing a new Precipitation Topographic Wetness Index (PTWI) and global remote sensing training samples. The results show earth would have approximately 29.83millionkm 2 of wetlands, if humans did not interfere with wetland ecosystems. By combining datasets related to global wetlands, we found that at least 33% of global wetlands had been lost as of 2009, including 4.58millionkm 2 of non-water wetlands and 2.64millionkm 2 of open water. The areal extent of wetland loss has been greatest in Asia, but Europe has experienced the most serious losses. Wetland-related datasets suffer from major inconsistencies, and estimates of the areal extent of the remaining global wetlands ranged from 1.53 to 14.86millionkm 2 . Therefore, although it is challenging, thematic mapping of global wetlands is necessary and urgently needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Export of Plastic Debris by Rivers into the Sea.

PubMed

Schmidt, Christian; Krauth, Tobias; Wagner, Stephan

2017-11-07

A substantial fraction of marine plastic debris originates from land-based sources and rivers potentially act as a major transport pathway for all sizes of plastic debris. We analyzed a global compilation of data on plastic debris in the water column across a wide range of river sizes. Plastic debris loads, both microplastic (particles <5 mm) and macroplastic (particles >5 mm) are positively related to the mismanaged plastic waste (MMPW) generated in the river catchments. This relationship is nonlinear where large rivers with  population-rich catchments delivering a disproportionately higher fraction of MMPW into the sea. The 10 top-ranked rivers transport 88-95% of the global load into the sea. Using MMPW as a predictor we calculate the global plastic debris inputs form rivers into the sea to range between 0.41 and 4 × 10 6 t/y. Due to the limited amount of data high uncertainties were expected and ultimately confirmed. The empirical analysis to quantify plastic loads in rivers can be extended easily by additional potential predictors other than MMPW, for example, hydrological conditions.

A real-time Global Warming Index.

PubMed

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Global warming potential of pavements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad

2009-09-01

Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

Observations and High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of a Non-Developing Tropical Disturbance in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

potential energy CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis COAMPS Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System DA data assimilation DART Data...developing (TCS025) tropical disturbance using the adjoint and tangent linear models for the Coupled Ocean – Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS...for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ELDORA ELectra DOppler RAdar EOL Earth Observing Laboratory GPS global positioning system GTS Global

How Sensitive Is the Carbon Budget Approach to Potential Carbon Cycle Changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, D.

2014-12-01

The recent development of global Earth-system models, which include dynamic representations of both physical climate and carbon cycle processes, has led to new insights about how the climate responds to human carbon dioxide emissions. Notably, several model analyses have now shown that global temperature responds linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions across a wide range of emissions scenarios. This implies that the timing of CO2 emissions does not affect the overall climate response, and allows a finite global carbon carbon budget to be defined for a given global temperature target. This linear climate response, however, emerges from the interaction of several non-linear processes and feedbacks involving how carbon sinks respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate. In this presentation, I will give an overview of how carbon sinks and carbon cycle feedbacks contribute to the overall linearity of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and will assess how robust this relationship is to a range of possible changes in the carbon cycle, including (a) potential positive carbon cycle feedbacks that are not well represented in the current generation of Earth-system models and (b) negative emission scenarios resulting from possible technological strategies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

PubMed Central

Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Bondeau, Alberte; Lauk, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Plutzar, Christoph; Steinberger, Julia K.

2011-01-01

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y−1, depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply. PMID:22211004

Current and future effects of global change on a hotspot's freshwater diversity.

PubMed

Gallardo, Belinda; Bogan, Arthur E; Harun, Sahana; Jainih, Leonardo; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Pizarro, Manuel; Rahim, Khairul Adha; Sousa, Ronaldo; Virdis, Salvatore G P; Zieritz, Alexandra

2018-04-19

Deforestation, climate change and invasive species constitute three global threats to biodiversity that act synergistically. However, drivers and rates of loss of freshwater biodiversity now and in the future are poorly understood. Here we focus on the potential impacts of global change on freshwater mussels (Order Unionida) in Sundaland (SE Asia), a vulnerable group facing global declines and recognized indicators of overall freshwater biodiversity. We used an ensemble of distribution models to identify habitats potentially suitable for freshwater mussels and their change under a range of climate, deforestation and invasion scenarios. Our data and models revealed that, at present, Sundaland features 47 and 32 Mha of habitat that can be considered environmentally suitable for native and invasive freshwater mussels, respectively. We anticipate that by 2050, the area suitable for palm oil cultivation may expand between 8 and 44 Mha, representing an annual increase of 2-11%. This is expected to result in a 20% decrease in suitable habitat for native mussels, a drop that reaches 30% by 2050 when considering concomitant climate change. In contrast, the habitat potentially suitable for invasive mussels may increase by 44-56% under 2050 future scenarios. Consequently, native mussels may compete for habitat, food resources and fish hosts with invasive mussels across approximately 60% of their suitable range. Our projections can be used to guide future expeditions to monitor the conservation status of freshwater biodiversity, and potentially reveal populations of endemic species on the brink of extinction. Future conservation measures-most importantly the designation of nature reserves-should take into account trends in freshwater biodiversity generally, and particularly species such as freshwater mussels, vital to safeguard fundamental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A strawman SLR program plan for the 1990s

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Degnan, John J.

1994-01-01

A series of programmatic and technical goals for the satellite laser ranging (SLR) network are presented. They are: (1) standardize the performance of the global SLR network; (2) improve the geographic distribution of stations; (3) reduce costs of field operations and data processing; (4) expand the 24 hour temporal coverage to better serve the growing constellation of satellites; (5) improve absolute range accuracy to 2 mm at key stations; (6) improve satellite force, radiative propagation, and station motion models and investigate alternative geodetic analysis techniques; (7) support technical intercomparison and the Terrestrial Reference Frame through global collocations; (8) investigate potential synergisms between GPS and SLR.

Training the next generation of global health experts: experiences and recommendations from Pacific Rim universities.

PubMed

Withers, Mellissa; Press, David; Wipfli, Heather; McCool, Judith; Chan, Chang-Chuan; Jimba, Masamine; Tremewan, Christopher; Samet, Jonathan

2016-06-23

Finding solutions to global health problems will require a highly-trained, inter-disciplinary workforce. Global health education and research can potentially have long-range impact in addressing the global burden of disease and protecting and improving the health of the global population. We conducted an online survey of twelve higher education institutions in the Pacific Rim that spanned the period 2005-2011. Program administrators provided data on program concentrations, student enrollment and student funding opportunities for 41 public health programs, including those specific to global health. The Master of Public Health (MPH) was the most common degree offered. A growing demand for global health education was evident. Enrollment in global health programs increased over three-fold between 2005-2011. Very few institutions had specific global health programs or offered training to undergraduates. Funding for student scholarships was also lacking. The growing demand for global health education suggests that universities in the Pacific Rim should increase educational and training opportunities in this field. Schools of medicine may not be fully equipped to teach global health-related courses and to mentor students who are interested in global health. Increasing the number of dedicated global health research and training institutions in the Pacific Rim can contribute to building capacity in the region. Faculty from different departments and disciplines should be engaged to provide multi-disciplinary global health educational opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students. New, innovative ways to collaborate in education, such as distance education, can also help universities offer a wider range of global health-related courses. Additional funding of global health is also required.

Suitable Environmental Ranges for Potential Coral Reef Habitats in the Tropical Ocean

PubMed Central

Guan, Yi; Hohn, Sönke; Merico, Agostino

2015-01-01

Coral reefs are found within a limited range of environmental conditions or tolerance limits. Estimating these limits is a critical prerequisite for understanding the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of coral reefs. Here we used the diagnostic model ReefHab to determine the current environmental tolerance limits for coral reefs and the global distribution of potential coral reef habitats as a function of six factors: temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, aragonite saturation state, and light. To determine these tolerance limits, we extracted maximum and minimum values of all environmental variables in corresponding locations where coral reefs are present. We found that the global, annually averaged tolerance limits for coral reefs are 21.7—29.6 °C for temperature, 28.7—40.4 psu for salinity, 4.51 μmol L-1 for nitrate, 0.63 μmol L-1 for phosphate, and 2.82 for aragonite saturation state. The averaged minimum light intensity in coral reefs is 450 μmol photons m-2 s-1. The global area of potential reef habitats calculated by the model is 330.5 × 103 km2. Compared with previous studies, the tolerance limits for temperature, salinity, and nutrients have not changed much, whereas the minimum value of aragonite saturation in coral reef waters has decreased from 3.28 to 2.82. The potential reef habitat area calculated with ReefHab is about 121×103 km2 larger than the area estimated from the charted reefs, suggesting that the growth potential of coral reefs is higher than currently observed. PMID:26030287

Suitable environmental ranges for potential coral reef habitats in the tropical ocean.

PubMed

Guan, Yi; Hohn, Sönke; Merico, Agostino

2015-01-01

Coral reefs are found within a limited range of environmental conditions or tolerance limits. Estimating these limits is a critical prerequisite for understanding the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of coral reefs. Here we used the diagnostic model ReefHab to determine the current environmental tolerance limits for coral reefs and the global distribution of potential coral reef habitats as a function of six factors: temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, aragonite saturation state, and light. To determine these tolerance limits, we extracted maximum and minimum values of all environmental variables in corresponding locations where coral reefs are present. We found that the global, annually averaged tolerance limits for coral reefs are 21.7-29.6 °C for temperature, 28.7-40.4 psu for salinity, 4.51 μmol L-1 for nitrate, 0.63 μmol L-1 for phosphate, and 2.82 for aragonite saturation state. The averaged minimum light intensity in coral reefs is 450 μmol photons m-2 s-1. The global area of potential reef habitats calculated by the model is 330.5 × 103 km2. Compared with previous studies, the tolerance limits for temperature, salinity, and nutrients have not changed much, whereas the minimum value of aragonite saturation in coral reef waters has decreased from 3.28 to 2.82. The potential reef habitat area calculated with ReefHab is about 121×103 km2 larger than the area estimated from the charted reefs, suggesting that the growth potential of coral reefs is higher than currently observed.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons - fate and long-range atmospheric transport studied using a global model, EMAC-SVOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Octaviani, Mega; Tost, Holger; Lammel, Gerhard

2017-04-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted by incomplete combustion from fossil fuel, vehicles, and biomass burning. They may persist in environmental compartments, pose a health hazard and may bio accumulate along food chains. The ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model had been used to simulate global tropospheric, stratospheric chemistry and climate. In this study, we improve the model to include simulations of the transport and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC). The EMAC-SVOC model takes into account essential environmental processes including gas-particle partitioning, dry and wet deposition, chemical and bio-degradation, and volatilization from sea surface, soils, vegetation, and snow. The model was evaluated against observational data in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and tropics, and further applied to study total environmental lifetime and long-range transport potential (LRTP) of PAHs. We selected four compounds for study, spanning a wide range of volatility, i.e., phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene. Several LRTP indicators were investigated, including the Arctic contamination potential, meridional spreading, and zonal and meridional fluxes to remote regions.

Estimating the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy

PubMed Central

Waddington‐Cruz, Márcia; Botteman, Marc F.; Carter, John A.; Chopra, Avijeet S.; Hopps, Markay; Stewart, Michelle; Fallet, Shari; Amass, Leslie

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Introduction: This study sought to estimate the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy (ATTR‐FAP). Methods: Prevalence estimates and information supporting prevalence calculations was extracted from records yielded by reference‐database searches (2005–2016), conference proceedings, and nonpeer reviewed sources. Prevalence was calculated as prevalence rate multiplied by general population size, then extrapolated to countries without prevalence estimates but with reported cases. Results: Searches returned 3,006 records; 1,001 were fully assessed and 10 retained, yielding prevalence for 10 “core” countries, then extrapolated to 32 additional countries. ATTR‐FAP prevalence in core countries, extrapolated countries, and globally was 3,762 (range 3639–3884), 6424 (range, 1,887–34,584), and 10,186 (range, 5,526–38,468) persons, respectively. Discussion: The mid global prevalence estimate (10,186) approximates the maximum commonly accepted estimate (5,000–10,000). The upper limit (38,468) implies potentially higher prevalence. These estimates should be interpreted carefully because contributing evidence was heterogeneous and carried an overall moderate risk of bias. This highlights the requirement for increasing rare‐disease epidemiological assessment and clinician awareness. Muscle Nerve 57: 829–837, 2018 PMID:29211930

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Global energy, sustainability, and the conventional development paradigm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raskin, P.D.; Margolis, R.M.

1998-05-01

The conventional development paradigm assumes that the values, consumption patterns, and dynamics of the western industrial system will be progressively played out on a global scale. In this inquiry, the authors explore the implications of the conventional paradigm for the evolution of global energy patterns, and the compatibility with notions of sustainability. They present a global long-range conventional development scenario to the year 2050, and identify major environmental, resource, and social pressures and uncertainties. These include the economic and geopolitical consequences of fossil fuel depletion, the environmental and security implications of increased nuclear generation, the risk of significant climatic change,more » and the threats to social cohesion of distributional inequities. Such potential problems could negate the basic scenario assumption of steady economic and social development. By clarifying the stress points in a conventional picture of energy development, the scenario provides a useful point of departure for examining alternative long-range scenarios for sustainable energy development.« less

Global-scale relationships between colonization ability and range size in marine and freshwater fish.

PubMed

Strona, Giovanni; Galli, Paolo; Montano, Simone; Seveso, Davide; Fattorini, Simone

2012-01-01

Although fish range sizes are expected to be associated with species dispersal ability, several studies failed to find a clear relationship between range size and duration of larval stage as a measure of dispersal potential. We investigated how six characteristics of the adult phase of fishes (maximum body length, growth rate, age at first maturity, life span, trophic level and frequency of occurrence) possibly associated with colonization ability correlate with range size in both freshwater and marine species at global scale. We used more than 12 million point records to estimate range size of 1829 freshwater species and 10068 marine species. As measures of range size we used both area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Relationships between range size and species traits were assessed using Canonical Correlation Analysis. We found that frequency of occurrence and maximum body length had a strong influence on range size measures, which is consistent with patterns previously found (at smaller scales) in several other taxa. Freshwater and marine fishes showed striking similarities, suggesting the existence of common mechanisms regulating fish biogeography in the marine and freshwater realms.

Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

2015-11-01

Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the most efficient cooling from a switch to fuel with a lower BC emission factor (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Latvia). The results presented here thus provide valuable information for climate impact assessments across a wide range of cookstove initiatives.

Dynamics and climate change mitigation potential of soil organic carbon sequestration.

PubMed

Sommer, Rolf; Bossio, Deborah

2014-11-01

When assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and its climate change (CC) mitigation potential at global scale, the dynamic nature of soil carbon storage and interventions to foster it should be taken into account. Firstly, adoption of SOC-sequestration measures will take time, and reasonably such schemes could only be implemented gradually at large-scale. Secondly, if soils are managed as carbon sinks, then SOC will increase only over a limited time, up to the point when a new SOC equilibrium is reached. This paper combines these two processes and predicts potential SOC sequestration dynamics in agricultural land at global scale and the corresponding CC mitigation potential. Assuming that global governments would agree on a worldwide effort to gradually change land use practices towards turning agricultural soils into carbon sinks starting 2014, the projected 87-year (2014-2100) global SOC sequestration potential of agricultural land ranged between 31 and 64 Gt. This is equal to 1.9-3.9% of the SRES-A2 projected 87-year anthropogenic emissions. SOC sequestration would peak 2032-33, at that time reaching 4.3-8.9% of the projected annual SRES-A2 emission. About 30 years later the sequestration rate would have reduced by half. Thus, SOC sequestration is not a C wedge that could contribute increasingly to mitigating CC. Rather, the mitigation potential is limited, contributing very little to solving the climate problem of the coming decades. However, we deliberately did not elaborate on the importance of maintaining or increasing SOC for sustaining soil health, agro-ecosystem functioning and productivity; an issue of global significance that deserves proper consideration irrespectively of any potential additional sequestration of SOC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biocrusts in the context of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

Mapping the climatic suitable habitat of oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) for introduction and cultivation at a global scale.

PubMed

Li, Guoqing; Du, Sheng; Wen, Zhongming

2016-07-21

Oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) is an important afforestation and ornamental tree species, which is native in eastern Asian. Therefore, a global suitable habitat map for oriental arborvitae is urgently needed for global promotion and cultivation. Here, the potential habitat and climatic requirements of oriental arborvitae at global scale were simulated using herbariums data and 13 thermal-moisture variables as input data for maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The simulation performance of MaxEnt is evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation and a jackknife procedure. Results show that the potential habitat and climate envelop of oriental arborvitae can be successfully simulated by MaxEnt at global scale, with a mean test AUC value of 0.93 and mean training AUC value of 0.95. Thermal factors play more important roles than moisture factors in controlling the distribution boundary of oriental arborvitae's potential ranges. There are about 50 countries suitable for introduction and cultivation of oriental arborvitae with an area of 2.0 × 10(7) km(2), which occupied 13.8% of land area on the earth. This unique study will provide valuable information and insights needed to identify new regions with climatically suitable habitats for cultivation and introduction of oriental arborvitae around the world.

Mapping the climatic suitable habitat of oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) for introduction and cultivation at a global scale

PubMed Central

Li, Guoqing; Du, Sheng; Wen, Zhongming

2016-01-01

Oriental arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis) is an important afforestation and ornamental tree species, which is native in eastern Asian. Therefore, a global suitable habitat map for oriental arborvitae is urgently needed for global promotion and cultivation. Here, the potential habitat and climatic requirements of oriental arborvitae at global scale were simulated using herbariums data and 13 thermal-moisture variables as input data for maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The simulation performance of MaxEnt is evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation and a jackknife procedure. Results show that the potential habitat and climate envelop of oriental arborvitae can be successfully simulated by MaxEnt at global scale, with a mean test AUC value of 0.93 and mean training AUC value of 0.95. Thermal factors play more important roles than moisture factors in controlling the distribution boundary of oriental arborvitae’s potential ranges. There are about 50 countries suitable for introduction and cultivation of oriental arborvitae with an area of 2.0 × 107 km2, which occupied 13.8% of land area on the earth. This unique study will provide valuable information and insights needed to identify new regions with climatically suitable habitats for cultivation and introduction of oriental arborvitae around the world. PMID:27443221

Global screening for Critical Habitat in the terrestrial realm.

PubMed

Brauneder, Kerstin M; Montes, Chloe; Blyth, Simon; Bennun, Leon; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Burgess, Neil D; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Jones, Matt I; Kapos, Val; Pilgrim, John; Tolley, Melissa J; Underwood, Emma C; Weatherdon, Lauren V; Brooks, Sharon E

2018-01-01

Critical Habitat has become an increasingly important concept used by the finance sector and businesses to identify areas of high biodiversity value. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) defines Critical Habitat in their highly influential Performance Standard 6 (PS6), requiring projects in Critical Habitat to achieve a net gain of biodiversity. Here we present a global screening layer of Critical Habitat in the terrestrial realm, derived from global spatial datasets covering the distributions of 12 biodiversity features aligned with guidance provided by the IFC. Each biodiversity feature is categorised as 'likely' or 'potential' Critical Habitat based on: 1. Alignment between the biodiversity feature and the IFC Critical Habitat definition; and 2. Suitability of the spatial resolution for indicating a feature's presence on the ground. Following the initial screening process, Critical Habitat must then be assessed in-situ by a qualified assessor. This analysis indicates that a total of 10% and 5% of the global terrestrial environment can be considered as likely and potential Critical Habitat, respectively, while the remaining 85% did not overlap with any of the biodiversity features assessed and was classified as 'unknown'. Likely Critical Habitat was determined principally by the occurrence of Key Biodiversity Areas and Protected Areas. Potential Critical Habitat was predominantly characterised by data representing highly threatened and unique ecosystems such as ever-wet tropical forests and tropical dry forests. The areas we identified as likely or potential Critical Habitat are based on the best available global-scale data for the terrestrial realm that is aligned with IFC's Critical Habitat definition. Our results can help businesses screen potential development sites at the early project stage based on a range of biodiversity features. However, the study also demonstrates several important data gaps and highlights the need to incorporate new and improved global spatial datasets as they become available.

Implementing nationally determined contributions: building energy policies in India’s mitigation strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Sha; Evans, Meredydd; Kyle, Page; Vu, Linh; Tan, Qing; Gupta, Ashu; Patel, Pralit

2018-03-01

The Nationally Determined Contributions are allowing countries to examine options for reducing emissions through a range of domestic policies. India, like many developing countries, has committed to reducing emissions through specific policies, including building energy codes. Here we assess the potential of these sectoral policies to help in achieving mitigation targets. Collectively, it is critically important to see the potential impact of such policies across developing countries in meeting national and global emission goals. Buildings accounted for around one third of global final energy use in 2010, and building energy consumption is expected to increase as income grows in developing countries. Using the Global Change Assessment Model, this study finds that implementing a range of energy efficiency policies robustly can reduce total Indian building energy use by 22% and lower total Indian carbon dioxide emissions by 9% in 2050 compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Among various policies, energy codes for new buildings can result in the most significant savings. For all building energy policies, well-coordinated, consistent implementation is critical, which requires coordination across different departments and agencies, improving capacity of stakeholders, and developing appropriate institutions to facilitate policy implementation.

Doppler lidar atmospheric wind sensors - A comparative performance evaluation for global measurement applications from earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menzies, R. T.

1986-01-01

A comparison is made of four prominent Doppler lidar systems, ranging in wavelength from the near UV to the middle IR, which are presently being studied for their potential in an earth-orbiting global tropospheric wind field measurement application. The comparison is restricted to relative photon efficiencies, i.e., the required number of transmitted photons per pulse is calculated for each system for midtropospheric velocity estimate uncertainties ranging from + or - 1 to + or - 4 m/s. The results are converted to laser transmitter pulse energy and power requirements. The analysis indicates that a coherent CO2 Doppler lidar operating at 9.11-micron wavelength is the most efficient.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Anthoff, David; Rose, Steven K.

We use FUND 3.8 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride emissions. The damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide—is also estimated. The damage potentials are compared to several metrics, focusing in particular on the global warming potentials, which are frequently used to measure the trade-off between gases in the form of carbon dioxide equivalents. We find that damage potentials could be significantly higher than global warming potentials. This finding implies that previous papersmore » have underestimated the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from an economic damage perspective. We show results for a range of sensitivity analyses: carbon dioxide fertilization on agriculture productivity, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. The sensitivity of the results to carbon dioxide fertilization is a primary focus as it is an important element of climate change that has not been considered in much of the previous literature. We estimate that carbon dioxide fertilization has a large positive impact that reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide with a much smaller effect on the other greenhouse gases. As a result, our estimates of the damage potentials of methane and nitrous oxide are much higher compared to estimates that ignore carbon dioxide fertilization. As a result, our base estimates of the damage potential for methane and nitrous oxide that include carbon dioxide fertilization are twice their respective global warming potentials. Our base estimate of the damage potential of sulphur hexafluoride is similar to the one previous estimate, both almost three times the global warming potential.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinz, Nick; Coolbaugh, Mark; Shevenell, Lisa

There are currently 74 productive geothermal systems associated with volcanic centers (VCs) in arcs globally, including actively producing systems, past producing systems, and systems with successful flow tests. The total installed or tested capacity of these 74 geothermal systems is 7,605 MWe, ranging from 0.7 MWe each at Copahue, Chile and Barkhatnaya Sopka, Kamchatka to 795 MWe, Larderello, Italy, and averaging 90.5 MWe per system. These 74 productive VCs constitute 10% of 732 VCs distributed across more than a dozen major arcs around the world. The intra-arc (within-arc) tectonic setting is highly variable globally, ranging from extension to transtension, transpression,more » or compression. Furthermore, the shear strain associated with oblique plate convergence can be accommodated by either intra-arc or arc-marginal deformation. The structural-tectonic settings of these 74 productive VCs were characterized to add to a global catalog of parameters to help guide future exploration, development, and regional resource potential.« less

Isomers and energy landscapes of micro-hydrated sulfite and chlorate clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hey, John C.; Doyle, Emily J.; Chen, Yuting; Johnston, Roy L.

2018-03-01

We present putative global minima for the micro-hydrated sulfite SO32-(H2O)N and chlorate ClO32(H2O)N systems in the range 3≤N≤15 found using basin-hopping global structure optimization with an empirical potential. We present a structural analysis of the hydration of a large number of minimized structures for hydrated sulfite and chlorate clusters in the range 3≤N≤50. We show that sulfite is a significantly stronger net acceptor of hydrogen bonding within water clusters than chlorate, completely suppressing the appearance of hydroxyl groups pointing out from the cluster surface (dangling OH bonds), in low-energy clusters. We also present a qualitative analysis of a highly explored energy landscape in the region of the global minimum of the eight water hydrated sulfite and chlorate systems. This article is part of the theme issue `Modern theoretical chemistry'.

Isomers and energy landscapes of micro-hydrated sulfite and chlorate clusters.

PubMed

Hey, John C; Doyle, Emily J; Chen, Yuting; Johnston, Roy L

2018-03-13

We present putative global minima for the micro-hydrated sulfite SO 3 2- (H 2 O) N and chlorate ClO 3 - (H 2 O) N systems in the range 3≤ N ≤15 found using basin-hopping global structure optimization with an empirical potential. We present a structural analysis of the hydration of a large number of minimized structures for hydrated sulfite and chlorate clusters in the range 3≤ N ≤50. We show that sulfite is a significantly stronger net acceptor of hydrogen bonding within water clusters than chlorate, completely suppressing the appearance of hydroxyl groups pointing out from the cluster surface (dangling OH bonds), in low-energy clusters. We also present a qualitative analysis of a highly explored energy landscape in the region of the global minimum of the eight water hydrated sulfite and chlorate systems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Modern theoretical chemistry'. © 2018 The Authors.

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Local Support for Black Bear Recovery Strategies(AED)

EPA Science Inventory

There is global interest in recovering locally extirpated carnivore species. Successful efforts to recover Louisiana black bear in Louisiana have prompted interest in recovery throughout the species’ historical range. We evaluated support for three potential black bear recovery s...

A climatology of gravity wave parameters based on satellite limb soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ern, Manfred; Trinh, Quang Thai; Preusse, Peter; Riese, Martin

2017-04-01

Gravity waves are one of the main drivers of atmospheric dynamics. The resolution of most global circulation models (GCMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs), however, is too coarse to properly resolve the small scales of gravity waves. Horizontal scales of gravity waves are in the range of tens to a few thousand kilometers. Gravity wave source processes involve even smaller scales. Therefore GCMs/CCMs usually parametrize the effect of gravity waves on the global circulation. These parametrizations are very simplified, and comparisons with global observations of gravity waves are needed for an improvement of parametrizations and an alleviation of model biases. In our study, we present a global data set of gravity wave distributions observed in the stratosphere and the mesosphere by the infrared limb sounding satellite instruments High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). We provide various gravity wave parameters (for example, gravity variances, potential energies and absolute momentum fluxes). This comprehensive climatological data set can serve for comparison with other instruments (ground based, airborne, or other satellite instruments), as well as for comparison with gravity wave distributions, both resolved and parametrized, in GCMs and CCMs. The purpose of providing various different parameters is to make our data set useful for a large number of potential users and to overcome limitations of other observation techniques, or of models, that may be able to provide only one of those parameters. We present a climatology of typical average global distributions and of zonal averages, as well as their natural range of variations. In addition, we discuss seasonal variations of the global distribution of gravity waves, as well as limitations of our method of deriving gravity wave parameters from satellite data.

Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

2017-06-01

The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds.

PubMed

Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

2015-07-01

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

PubMed Central

Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

2015-01-01

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union. PMID:26681982

The p+ 6He interaction from Ec.m.=0.5 to 25 MeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackintosh, R. S.

2004-09-01

The p- 6He potential has been determined by inverting the S-matrix, calculated from single-channel RGM without absorption, over the energy range Ec.m.=0.5,1.0,…,25 MeV. Energy-dependent IP inversion was used, but with energy-independent spin-orbit terms. A potential with odd- and even-parity components reproduces Slj( E) from l=0 to l=4 over the whole energy range. The central components of the potential have a smooth, predominantly linear, energy dependence that is consistent with global phenomenology. We compare the similar neutron- 6Li (IAS) interaction. Various features in the potentials deserve explanation. The procedure employed here could extract dynamic polarization potentials for the p- 6He interaction from Slj( E) from multichannel RGM calculations, should these become available.

Global health diplomacy in Iraq: international relations outcomes of multilateral tuberculosis programmes.

PubMed

Kevany, Sebastian; Jaf, Payman; Workneh, Nibretie Gobezie; Abu Dalod, Mohammad; Tabena, Mohammed; Rashid, Sara; Al Hilfi, Thamer Kadum Yousif

2014-01-01

International development programmes, including global health interventions, have the capacity to make important implicit and explicit benefits to diplomatic and international relations outcomes. Conversely, in the absence of awareness of these implications, such programmes may generate associated threats. Due to heightened international tensions in conflict and post-conflict settings, greater attention to diplomatic outcomes may therefore be necessary. We examine related 'collateral' effects of Global Fund-supported tuberculosis programmes in Iraq. During site visits to Iraq conducted during 2012 and 2013 on behalf of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, on-site service delivery evaluations, unstructured interviews with clinical and operational staff, and programme documentary review of Global Fund-supported tuberculosis treatment and care programmes were conducted. During this process, a range of possible external or collateral international relations and diplomatic effects of global health programmes were assessed according to predetermined criteria. A range of positive diplomatic and international relations effects of Global Fund-supported programmes were observed in the Iraq setting. These included (1) geo-strategic accessibility and coverage; (2) provisions for programme sustainability and alignment; (3) contributions to nation-building and peace-keeping initiatives; (4) consistent observation of social, cultural and religious norms in intervention selection; and (5) selection of the most effective and cost-effective tuberculosis treatment and care interventions. Investments in global health programmes have valuable diplomatic, as well as health-related, outcomes, associated with their potential to prevent, mitigate or reverse international tension and hostility in conflict and post-conflict settings, provided that they adhere to appropriate criteria. The associated international presence in such regions may also contribute to peace-keeping efforts. Global health programmes may frequently produce a wider range of 'collateral benefits' that conventional monitoring and evaluation systems should be expanded to assess, in keeping with contemporary efforts to leverage development programmes from a 'global health diplomacy' perspective.

The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

2011-12-01

In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

Correlations for the Viscosity of 2,3,3,3-Tetrafluoroprop-1-ene (R1234yf) and trans-1,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R1234ze(E))†

PubMed Central

Huber, Marcia L.; Assael, Marc J.

2016-01-01

Due to concerns about global warming, there is interest in 2,3,3,3-Tetrafluoroprop-1-ene (R1234yf) and trans-1,3,3,3-Tetrafluoropropene (R1234ze(E)) as potential replacements for refrigerants with high global warming potential (GWP). In this manuscript we survey available data and provide viscosity correlations that cover the entire fluid range including vapor, liquid, and supercritical regions. The correlation for R1234yf is valid from the triple point (220 K) to 410 K at pressures up to 30 MPa, and the correlation for R1234ze(E) is valid from the triple point (169 K) to 420 K at pressures up to 100 MPa. The estimated uncertainty for both correlations at a 95 % confidence level is 2 % for the liquid phase over the temperature range 243 K to 363 K at pressures to 30 MPa, and 3 % for the gas phase at atmospheric pressure. PMID:27840461

The relative importance of sources of greenhouse-gas emissions: comparison of global through subnational perspectives.

PubMed

Cushman, Robert M; Jones, Sonja B

2002-03-01

Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are widely expected to cause global warming and other climatic changes. It is important to establish priorities for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, so that resources can be allocated efficiently and effectively. This is a global problem, and it is possible, on a global scale, to identify those activities whose emissions have the greatest potential for enhancing the greenhouse effect. However, perspectives from smaller scales must be appreciated, because it is on scales down to the local level that response measures will be implemented. This paper analyzes the relative importance of emissions from the many individual sources, on scales ranging from global to national to subnational. Individual country perspectives and proposed policy measures and those of subnational political entities exhibit some commonalities but differ among themselves and from a global-scale perspective in detail.

Efficient prediction of human protein-protein interactions at a global scale.

PubMed

Schoenrock, Andrew; Samanfar, Bahram; Pitre, Sylvain; Hooshyar, Mohsen; Jin, Ke; Phillips, Charles A; Wang, Hui; Phanse, Sadhna; Omidi, Katayoun; Gui, Yuan; Alamgir, Md; Wong, Alex; Barrenäs, Fredrik; Babu, Mohan; Benson, Mikael; Langston, Michael A; Green, James R; Dehne, Frank; Golshani, Ashkan

2014-12-10

Our knowledge of global protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks in complex organisms such as humans is hindered by technical limitations of current methods. On the basis of short co-occurring polypeptide regions, we developed a tool called MP-PIPE capable of predicting a global human PPI network within 3 months. With a recall of 23% at a precision of 82.1%, we predicted 172,132 putative PPIs. We demonstrate the usefulness of these predictions through a range of experiments. The speed and accuracy associated with MP-PIPE can make this a potential tool to study individual human PPI networks (from genomic sequences alone) for personalized medicine.

Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Weinberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Melanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; Correa, Matthias Lopez; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

2014-01-01

General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth׳s largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium–thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

2014-06-01

General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

How Far Could the Alien Boatman Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis Spread? Worldwide Estimation of Its Current and Future Potential Distribution

PubMed Central

Guareschi, Simone; Coccia, Cristina; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Carbonell, José Antonio; Velasco, Josefa; Boyero, Luz; Green, Andy J.; Millán, Andrés

2013-01-01

Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales. PMID:23555771

Assessing Potential Habitat and Carrying Capacity for Reintroduction of Plains Bison (Bison bison bison) in Banff National Park

PubMed Central

Steenweg, Robin; Hebblewhite, Mark; Gummer, David; Low, Brian; Hunt, Bill

2016-01-01

Interest in bison (Bison bison, B. bonasus) conservation and restoration continues to grow globally. In Canada, plains bison (B. b. bison) are threatened, occupying less than 0.5% of their former range. The largest threat to their recovery is the lack of habitat in which they are considered compatible with current land uses. Fences and direct management make range expansion by most bison impossible. Reintroduction of bison into previously occupied areas that remain suitable, therefore, is critical for bison recovery in North America. Banff National Park is recognized as historical range of plains bison and has been identified as a potential site for reintroduction of a wild population. To evaluate habitat quality and assess if there is sufficient habitat for a breeding population, we developed a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for the proposed reintroduction and surrounding areas in Banff National Park (Banff). We then synthesize previous studies on habitat relationships, forage availability, bison energetics and snowfall scenarios to estimate nutritional carrying capacity. Considering constraints on nutritional carrying capacity, the most realistic scenario that we evaluated resulted in an estimated maximum bison density of 0.48 bison/km2. This corresponds to sufficient habitat to support at least 600 to 1000 plains bison, which could be one of the largest 10 plains bison populations in North America. Within Banff, there is spatial variation in predicted bison habitat suitability and population size that suggests one potential reintroduction site as the most likely to be successful from a habitat perspective. The successful reintroduction of bison into Banff would represent a significant global step towards conserving this iconic species, and our approach provides a useful template for evaluating potential habitat for other endangered species reintroductions into their former range. PMID:26910226

What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

2015-04-01

In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop clarity on their limits and potential misuses.

[Effects of plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate on net global warming potential in semiarid rain-fed maize cropland].

PubMed

Liu, Jian Can; Wang, Ze Lin; Yue, Shan Chao; Li, Shi Qing

2018-04-01

A one-year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of plastic film mulching (FM) and nitrogen application rates applied to rain-fed maize fields on net global warming potential (Net GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) at the Changwu Agricultural and Ecological Experimental Station. Both GWP and GHGI were affected by the plastic film mulching and nitrogen application rate. Under the FM treatment, maize yield ranged from 1643 to 16699 kg·hm -2 , the net GWP (CO 2 -eq) ranged from 595 to 4376 kg·hm -2 ·a -1 , and the GHGI (CO 2 -eq) ranged from 213 to 358 kg·t -1 . The grain yield of maize, net GWP and GHGI for the UM (no mulching) treatment were 956 to 8821 kg·hm -2 , 342 to 4004 kg·hm -2 ·a -1 and 204 to 520 kg·t -1 , respectively. The results suggested that plastic film mulching could simultaneously improve grain yield and decrease GHGI in rain-fed cropland along with nitrogen fertilizer of 250 kg·hm -2 .

Testing global positioning system telemetry to study wolf predation on deer fawns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Demma, D.J.; Barber-Meyer, S. M.; Mech, L.D.

2007-01-01

We conducted a pilot study to test the usefulness of Global Positioning System (GPS) collars for investigating wolf (Canis lupus) predation on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns. Using GPS collars with short location-attempt intervals on 5 wolves and 5 deer during summers 2002-2004 in northeastern Minnesota, USA, demonstrated how this approach could provide new insights into wolf hunting behavior of fawns. For example, a wolf traveled ???1.5-3.0 km and spent 20-22 hours in the immediate vicinity of known fawn kill sites and ???0.7 km and 8.3 hours at scavenging sites. Wolf travel paths indicated that wolves intentionally traveled into deer summer ranges, traveled ???0.7-4.2 km in such ranges, and spent <1-22 hours per visit. Each pair of 3 GPS-collared wolf pack members were located together for ???6% of potential locations. From GPS collar data, we estimated that each deer summer range in a pack territory containing 5 wolves ???1 year old and hunting individually would be visited by a wolf on average every 3-5 days. This approach holds great potential for investigating summer hunting behavior of wolves in areas where direct observation is impractical or impossible.

The use of international service learning initiatives for global health education: case studies from Rwanda and Mexico.

PubMed

Plumb, Ellen; Roe, Kathleen; Plumb, James; Sepe, Priscilla; Soin, Komal; Ramirez, Aragon; Baganizi, Edmond; Simmons, Rob; Khubchandani, Jagdish

2013-05-01

Global health education and health promotion have the potential to engage students, scholars, and practitioners in ways that go beyond the classroom teaching routine. This engagement in global communities, can range from reflection on continuing deep-seated questions about human rights and civic responsibility to the use of health education and promotion-related theoretical, intellectual, and practical skills. In the arena of global health education and promotion, these skills also range from leadership and advocacy to decision making, critical and creative thinking, teamwork, and problem solving. In recent times, there has been a growing interest in cross-cultural collaborations and educational initiatives to improve stakeholder's understanding of global health principles and practices, to enrich the experiences of health professionals, and to improve the lives of those who are disenfranchised and live across borders. In this article of Health Promotion Practice, we highlight two unique cases of cross-national collaborations and provide a glimpse of the various shapes and forms taken by cross-cultural educational initiatives for global health education and promotion. We summarize the history, philosophy, and current working practices relevant to these collaborations, keeping in view the global health domains, competencies, and activities. In addition, we also compare the key components and activities of these two case studies from Rwanda and Mexico, wherein communities in these two countries collaborated with academic institutions and health professionals in the United States.

Experimental and life cycle assessment analysis of gas emission from mechanically–biologically pretreated waste in a landfill with energy recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Maria, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaria@unipg.it; Sordi, Alessio; Micale, Caterina

Highlights: • Bio-methane landfill emissions from different period (0, 4, 8, 16 weeks) MTB waste have been evaluated. • Electrical energy recoverable from landfill gas ranges from 11 to about 90 kW h/tonne. • Correlation between oxygen uptake, energy recovery and anaerobic gas production shows R{sup 2} ranging from 0.78 to 0.98. • LCA demonstrate that global impact related to gaseous emissions achieve minimum for 4 week of MBT. - Abstract: The global gaseous emissions produced by landfilling the Mechanically Sorted Organic Fraction (MSOF) with different weeks of Mechanical Biological Treatment (MBT) was evaluated for an existing waste management system.more » One MBT facility and a landfill with internal combustion engines fuelled by the landfill gas for electrical energy production operate in the waste management system considered. An experimental apparatus was used to simulate 0, 4, 8 and 16 weeks of aerobic stabilization and the consequent biogas potential (Nl/kg) of a large sample of MSOF withdrawn from the full-scale MBT. Stabilization achieved by the waste was evaluated by dynamic oxygen uptake and fermentation tests. Good correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}), ranging from 0.7668 to 0.9772, were found between oxygen uptake, fermentation and anaerobic test values. On the basis of the results of several anaerobic tests, the methane production rate k (year{sup −1}) was evaluated. k ranged from 0.436 to 0.308 year{sup −1} and the bio-methane potential from 37 to 12 N m{sup 3}/tonne, respectively, for the MSOF with 0 and 16 weeks of treatment. Energy recovery from landfill gas ranged from about 11 to 90 kW h per tonne of disposed MSOF depending on the different scenario investigated. Life cycle analysis showed that the scenario with 0 weeks of pre-treatment has the highest weighted global impact even if opposite results were obtained with respect to the single impact criteria. MSOF pre-treatment periods longer than 4 weeks showed rather negligible variation in the global impact of system emissions.« less

Hydrocarbon bio-jet fuel from bioconversion of poplar biomass: life cycle assessment.

PubMed

Budsberg, Erik; Crawford, Jordan T; Morgan, Hannah; Chin, Wei Shan; Bura, Renata; Gustafson, Rick

2016-01-01

Bio-jet fuels compatible with current aviation infrastructure are needed as an alternative to petroleum-based jet fuel to lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Cradle to grave life cycle analysis is used to investigate the global warming potential and fossil fuel use of converting poplar biomass to drop-in bio-jet fuel via a novel bioconversion platform. Unique to the biorefinery designs in this research is an acetogen fermentation step. Following dilute acid pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis, poplar biomass is fermented to acetic acid and then distilled, hydroprocessed, and oligomerized to jet fuel. Natural gas steam reforming and lignin gasification are proposed to meet hydrogen demands at the biorefineries. Separate well to wake simulations are performed using the hydrogen production processes to obtain life cycle data. Both biorefinery designs are assessed using natural gas and hog fuel to meet excess heat demands. Global warming potential of the natural gas steam reforming and lignin gasification bio-jet fuel scenarios range from CO2 equivalences of 60 to 66 and 32 to 73 g MJ(-1), respectively. Fossil fuel usage of the natural gas steam reforming and lignin gasification bio-jet fuel scenarios range from 0.78 to 0.84 and 0.71 to 1.0 MJ MJ(-1), respectively. Lower values for each impact category result from using hog fuel to meet excess heat/steam demands. Higher values result from using natural gas to meet the excess heat demands. Bio-jet fuels produced from the bioconversion of poplar biomass reduce the global warming potential and fossil fuel use compared with petroleum-based jet fuel. Production of hydrogen is identified as a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel use in both the natural gas steam reforming and lignin gasification bio-jet simulations. Using hog fuel instead of natural gas to meet heat demands can help lower the global warming potential and fossil fuel use at the biorefineries.

Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

PubMed

Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits of mercury controls for the United States.

PubMed

Giang, Amanda; Selin, Noelle E

2016-01-12

Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

PubMed

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting species before they potentially colonize. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Conformational switching upon phosphorylation: a predictive framework based on energy landscape principles.

PubMed

Lätzer, Joachim; Shen, Tongye; Wolynes, Peter G

2008-02-19

We investigate how post-translational phosphorylation modifies the global conformation of a protein by changing its free energy landscape using two test proteins, cystatin and NtrC. We first examine the changes in a free energy landscape caused by phosphorylation using a model containing information about both structural forms. For cystatin the free energy cost is fairly large indicating a low probability of sampling the phosphorylated conformation in a perfectly funneled landscape. The predicted barrier for NtrC conformational transition is several times larger than the barrier for cystatin, indicating that the switch protein NtrC most probably follows a partial unfolding mechanism to move from one basin to the other. Principal component analysis and linear response theory show how the naturally occurring conformational changes in unmodified proteins are captured and stabilized by the change of interaction potential. We also develop a partially guided structure prediction Hamiltonian which is capable of predicting the global structure of a phosphorylated protein using only knowledge of the structure of the unphosphorylated protein or vice versa. This algorithm makes use of a generic transferable long-range residue contact potential along with details of structure short range in sequence. By comparing the results obtained with this guided transferable potential to those from the native-only, perfectly funneled Hamiltonians, we show that the transferable Hamiltonian correctly captures the nature of the global conformational changes induced by phosphorylation and can sample substantially correct structures for the modified protein with high probability.

Global health diplomacy investments in Afghanistan: adaptations and outcomes of global fund malaria programs.

PubMed

Kevany, Sebastian; Sahak, Omar; Workneh, Nibretie Gobezie; Saeedzai, Sayed Ataullah

2014-01-01

Global health programmes require extensive adaptation for implementation in conflict and post-conflict settings. Without such adaptations, both implementation success and diplomatic, international relations and other indirect outcomes may be threatened. Conversely, diplomatic successes may be made through flexible and responsive programmes. We examine adaptations and associated outcomes for malaria treatment and prevention programmes in Afghanistan. In conjunction with the completion of monitoring and evaluation activities for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, we reviewed adaptations to the structure, design, selection, content and delivery of malaria-related interventions in Afghanistan. Interviews were conducted with programme implementers, service delivery providers, government representatives and local stakeholders, and site visits to service delivery points were completed. Programmes for malaria treatment and prevention require a range of adaptations for successful implementation in Afghanistan. These include (1) amendment of educational materials for rural populations, (2) religious awareness in gender groupings for health educational interventions, (3) recruitment of local staff, educated in languages and customs, for both quality assurance and service delivery, (4) alignment with diplomatic principles and, thereby, avoidance of confusion with broader strategic and military initiatives and (5) amendments to programme 'branding' procedures. The absence of provision for these adaptations made service delivery excessively challenging and increased the risk of tension between narrow programmatic and broader diplomatic goals. Conversely, adapted global health programmes displayed a unique capacity to access potentially extremist populations and groups in remote regions otherwise isolated from international activities. A range of diplomatic considerations when delivering global health programmes in conflict and post-conflict settings are required in order to ensure that health gains are not offset by broader international relations losses through challenges to local cultural, religious and social norms, as well as in order to ensure the security of programme staff. Conversely, when global health programmes are delivered with international relations considerations in mind, they have the potential to generate unquantified diplomatic outcomes.

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal outlook while providing useful information to users and partners. We demonstrate the first version of an operational GloFAS seasonal outlook, outlining the model set-up and presenting a first look at the seasonal forecasts that will be displayed in the GloFAS interface, and discuss the initial results of the forecast evaluation.

Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change

PubMed Central

Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H.; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

2016-01-01

Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

Globally invasive, withdrawing at home: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus facing the rise of Aedes flavopictus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2016-11-01

It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.

Future global SLR network evolution and its impact on the terrestrial reference frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehm, Alexander; Bloßfeld, Mathis; Pavlis, Erricos C.; Seitz, Florian

2018-06-01

Satellite laser ranging (SLR) is an important technique that contributes to the determination of terrestrial geodetic reference frames, especially to the realization of the origin and the scale of global networks. One of the major limiting factors of SLR-derived reference frame realizations is the datum accuracy which significantly suffers from the current global SLR station distribution. In this paper, the impact of a potential future development of the SLR network on the estimated datum parameters is investigated. The current status of the SLR network is compared to a simulated potential future network featuring additional stations improving the global network geometry. In addition, possible technical advancements resulting in a higher amount of observations are taken into account as well. As a result, we find that the network improvement causes a decrease in the scatter of the network translation parameters of up to 24%, and up to 20% for the scale, whereas the technological improvement causes a reduction in the scatter of up to 27% for the translations and up to 49% for the scale. The Earth orientation parameters benefit by up to 15% from both effects.

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ALPINE TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS IN THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. (R827449)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Sorghum production and anthracnose disease management in future global energy and food security

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sorghum is the fifth most important cereal crop in world commerce with uses ranging from animal feed, food, in brewery, and recently as a potential source of biofuel. With the expected increase in the world's population, crop production outputs must be increased. Annual cereal production, including...

The Feasibility of Avoiding Future Climate Impacts: Results from the AVOID Programmes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, J. A.; Warren, R.; Arnell, N.; Buckle, S.

2014-12-01

The AVOID programme and its successor, AVOID2, have focused on answering three core questions: how do we characterise potentially dangerous climate change and impacts, which emissions pathways can avoid at least some of these impacts, and how feasible are the future reductions needed to significantly deviate from a business-as-usual future emissions pathway. The first AVOID project succeeded in providing the UK Government with evidence to inform its position on climate change. A key part of the work involved developing a range of global emissions pathways and estimating and understanding the corresponding global impacts. This made use of a combination of complex general circulation models, simple climate models, pattern-scaling and state-of-the art impacts models. The results characterise the range of avoidable impacts across the globe in several key sectors including river and coastal flooding, cooling and heating energy demand, crop productivity and aspects of biodiversity. The avoided impacts between a scenario compatible with a 4ºC global warming and one with a 2ºC global warming were found to be highly sector dependent and avoided fractions typically ranged between 20% and 70%. A further key aspect was characterising the magnitude of the uncertainty involved, which is found to be very large in some impact sectors although the avoided fraction appears a more robust metric. The AVOID2 programme began in 2014 and will provide results in the run up to the Paris CoP in 2015. This includes new post-IPCC 5th assessment evidence to inform the long-term climate goal, a more comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty ranges of feasible emission pathways compatible with the long-term goal and enhanced estimates of global impacts using the latest generation of impact models and scenarios.

Microbial mediation of biogeochemical cycles revealed by simulation of global changes with soil transplant and cropping

PubMed Central

Zhao, Mengxin; Xue, Kai; Wang, Feng; Liu, Shanshan; Bai, Shijie; Sun, Bo; Zhou, Jizhong; Yang, Yunfeng

2014-01-01

Despite microbes' key roles in driving biogeochemical cycles, the mechanism of microbe-mediated feedbacks to global changes remains elusive. Recently, soil transplant has been successfully established as a proxy to simulate climate changes, as the current trend of global warming coherently causes range shifts toward higher latitudes. Four years after southward soil transplant over large transects in China, we found that microbial functional diversity was increased, in addition to concurrent changes in microbial biomass, soil nutrient content and functional processes involved in the nitrogen cycle. However, soil transplant effects could be overridden by maize cropping, which was attributed to a negative interaction. Strikingly, abundances of nitrogen and carbon cycle genes were increased by these field experiments simulating global change, coinciding with higher soil nitrification potential and carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux. Further investigation revealed strong correlations between carbon cycle genes and CO2 efflux in bare soil but not cropped soil, and between nitrogen cycle genes and nitrification. These findings suggest that changes of soil carbon and nitrogen cycles by soil transplant and cropping were predictable by measuring microbial functional potentials, contributing to a better mechanistic understanding of these soil functional processes and suggesting a potential to incorporate microbial communities in greenhouse gas emission modeling. PMID:24694714

Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, J. J.

2016-12-01

We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of performance, global output of meat and milk could increase 2.8 fold. This is much higher than that reported previously for major grain crops like corn and wheat. Our results suggest that efforts to address poor performance of pasture systems around the world could substantially improve the outlook for meeting future food demand.

An Evaluation of C1-C3 Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) Metrics: Lifetimes, Ozone Depletion Potentials, Radiative Efficiencies, Global Warming and Global Temperature Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholder, J. B.; Papanastasiou, D. K.; Marshall, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) have been used as chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) substitutes in a number of applications, e.g. refrigerator and air-conditioning systems. Although HCFCs have lower ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs) compared to CFCs, they are potent greenhouse gases. The twenty-eighth meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Kigali, 2016) included a list of 274 HCFCs to be controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, from this list, only 15 of the HCFCs have values for their atmospheric lifetime, ODP, global warming potential (GWP), and global temperature potential (GTP) that are based on fundamental experimental studies, while 48 are registered compounds. In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the atmospheric lifetimes, ODPs, radiative efficiencies (REs), GWPs, and GTPs for all 274 HCFCs to be included in the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated based on HCFC reactivity with OH radicals and O(1D), as well as their removal by UV photolysis using structure activity relationships and reactivity trends. ODP values are based on the semi-empirical approach described in the WMO/UNEP ozone assessment. Radiative efficiencies were estimated, based on infrared spectra calculated using theoretical electronic structure methods (Gaussian 09). GWPs and GTPs were calculated relative to CO2 using our estimated atmospheric lifetimes and REs. The details of the methodology will be discussed as well as the associated uncertainties. This study has provided a consistent set of atmospheric metrics for a wide range of HCFCs that support future policy decisions. More accurate metrics for a specific HCFC, if desired, would require fundamental laboratory studies to better define the OH reactivity and infrared absorption spectrum of the compound of interest. Overall, HCFCs within the same family (isomers) show a large ODP, GWP, GTP dependence on the molecular geometry of the isomers. The atmospheric lifetime of HCFCs is predominantly determined by reaction with the OH radical, with photolysis making only a minor contribution for long-lived highly chlorinated compounds. RE values are within the 0.05 and 0.3 W m-2 ppb-1 range with highly fluorinated HCFCs having the largest RE values.

F-35A Training Basing Environmental Impact Statement. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

Global Change Research Program USMC U.S. Marine Corps USN U.S. Navy UTTR Utah Test and Training Range VCP vitrified clay pipe VFR Visual Flight...burning flare struck the ground, it could result in a fire, with potential environmental consequences. The design , manufacturing, and testing process...C–6, and C–7). Of these, 14 are considered to have the potential to be designated as an NRHP Missile Test Stands Historic District. Premilitary

The history of aerobic ammonia oxidizers: from the first discoveries to today.

PubMed

Monteiro, Maria; Séneca, Joana; Magalhães, Catarina

2014-07-01

Nitrification, the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrate, has long been considered a central biological process in the global nitrogen cycle, with its first description dated 133 years ago. Until 2005, bacteria were considered the only organisms capable of nitrification. However, the recent discovery of a chemoautotrophic ammonia-oxidizing archaeon, Nitrosopumilus maritimus, changed our concept of the range of organisms involved in nitrification, highlighting the importance of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) as potential players in global biogeochemical nitrogen transformations. The uniqueness of these archaea justified the creation of a novel archaeal phylum, Thaumarchaeota. These recent discoveries increased the global scientific interest within the microbial ecology society and have triggered an analysis of the importance of bacterial vs archaeal ammonia oxidation in a wide range of natural ecosystems. In this mini review we provide a chronological perspective of the current knowledge on the ammonia oxidation pathway of nitrification, based on the main physiological, ecological and genomic discoveries.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Laidre, Kristin L; Akçakaya, H Resit; Amstrup, Steven C; Atwood, Todd C; Lunn, Nicholas J; Obbard, Martyn; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W; Wiig, Øystein

2016-12-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year -1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. © 2016 The Authors.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Wiig, Øystein

2016-01-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year−1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Overview of NASA's Observations for Global Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaye, J. A.

2015-12-01

Observations of pollutants are central to the study of air quality. Much focus has been placed on local-scale observations that can help specific geographic areas document their air quality issues, plan abatement strategies, and understand potential impacts. In addition, long-range atmospheric transport of pollutants can cause downwind regions to not meet attainment standards. Satellite observations have shed significant light on air quality from local to regional to global scales, especially for pollutants such as ozone, aerosols, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. These observations have made use of multiple techniques and in some cases multiple satellite sensors. The satellite observations are complemented by surface observations, as well as atmospheric (in situ) observations typically made as part of focused airborne field campaigns. The synergy between satellite observations and field campaigns has been an important theme for recent and upcoming activities and plans. In this talk, a review of NASA's investments in observations relevant to global air quality will be presented, with examples given for a range of pollutants and measurement approaches covering the last twenty-five years. These investments have helped build national and international collaborations such that the global satellite community is now preparing to deploy a constellation of satellites that together will provide fundamental advances in global observations for air quality.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

PubMed

Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

The International Database of Efficient Appliances (IDEA): A New Resource for Global Efficiency Policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerke, Brian F; McNeil, Michael A; Tu, Thomas

A major barrier to effective appliance efficiency program design and evaluation is a lack of data for determination of market baselines and cost-effective energy savings potential. The data gap is particularly acute in developing countries, which may have the greatest savings potential per unit GDP. To address this need, we are developing the International Database of Efficient Appliances (IDEA), which automatically compiles data from a wide variety of online sources to create a unified repository of information on efficiency, price, and features for a wide range of energy-consuming products across global markets. This paper summarizes the database framework and demonstratesmore » the power of IDEA as a resource for appliance efficiency research and policy development. Using IDEA data for refrigerators in China and India, we develop robust cost-effectiveness indicators that allow rapid determination of savings potential within each market, as well as comparison of that potential across markets and appliance types. We discuss implications for future energy efficiency policy development.« less

Benefits of mercury controls for the United States

PubMed Central

Selin, Noelle E.

2016-01-01

Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action. PMID:26712021

Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

PubMed Central

Flecks, Morris; Ahmadzadeh, Faraham; Dambach, Johannes; Engler, Jan O.; Habel, Jan Christian; Hartmann, Timo; Hörnes, David; Ihlow, Flora; Schidelko, Kathrin; Stiels, Darius; Polly, P. David

2013-01-01

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5–10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future. PMID:24130664

76 FR 23649 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition and Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-27

... field research), the potential global population of free-ranging Morelet's crocodiles in 2004 was... will include monitoring and harvest of Morelet's crocodiles and hybrids for scientific research (CITES... Biosphere Reserve, Laguna de T[eacute]rminos Biosphere Reserve, Hampolol Wildlife Conservation and Research...

A terrain-attribute based approach to assessing soil carbon sequestration in the Oregon Coast range mountains

EPA Science Inventory

Determining how to best mitigate Global Climate Change through the sequestration of atmospheric CO2 requires developing an understanding of potential ecosystem C sinks and the rates at which C can be sequestered in soils and vegetation under a variety of land uses. The largest g...

Forest Attributes from Radar Interferometric Structure and its Fusion with Optical Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treuhaft, Robert N.; Law, Beverly E.; Asner, Gregory P.

2004-01-01

The possibility of global, three-dimensional remote sensing of forest structure with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) bears on important forest ecological processes, particularly the carbon cycle. InSAR supplements two-dimensional remote sensing with information in the vertical dimension. Its strengths in potential for global coverage complement those of lidar (light detecting and ranging), which has the potential for high-accuracy vertical profiles over small areas. InSAR derives its sensitivity to forest vertical structure from the differences in signals received by two, spatially separate radar receivers. Estimation of parameters describing vertical structure requires multiple-polarization, multiple-frequency, or multiple-baseline InSAR. Combining InSAR with complementary remote sensing techniques, such as hyperspectral optical imaging and lidar, can enhance vertical-structure estimates and consequent biophysical quantities of importance to ecologists, such as biomass. Future InSAR experiments will supplement recent airborne and spaceborne demonstrations, and together with inputs from ecologists regarding structure, they will suggest designs for future spaceborne strategies for measuring global vegetation structure.

Regional atmospheric emissions determined from measurements at Jeju Island, Korea: Halogenated compounds from China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jooil; Li, Shanlan; Kim, Kyung-Ryul; Stohl, Andreas; Mühle, Jens; Kim, Seung-Kyu; Park, Mi-Kyung; Kang, Dong-Jin; Lee, Gangwoong; Harth, Christina M.; Salameh, Peter K.; Weiss, Ray F.

2010-06-01

High-frequency in-situ measurements of a wide range of halogenated compounds including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and other chlorinated and brominated compounds have been made at Gosan (Jeju Island, Korea). Regional emissions of HCFC-22 (CHClF2) calculated from inverse modeling were combined with interspecies correlation methods to estimate national emissions for China, a major emitter of industrial halogenated gases. Our results confirm the signs of successful phase-out of primary ozone-depleting species such as CFCs, halons and many chlorinated or brominated compounds, along with substantial emissions of replacement HCFCs. Emissions derived for HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 were compared to published estimates and found to be a significant fraction of global totals. Overall, Chinese emissions of the halogenated compounds discussed here represent 19(14-17)% and 20(15-26)% of global emissions when evaluated in terms of their Ozone Depletion Potentials and 100-year Global Warming Potentials, respectively.

The Implementation of Novel Collaborative Structures for the Identification and Resolution of Barriers to Pluripotent Stem Cell Translation

PubMed Central

Brindley, David A.; French, Anna; Suh, Jane; Roberts, MacKenna; Davies, Benjamin; Pinedo-Villanueva, Rafael; Wartolowska, Karolina; Rooke, Kelly; Kramm, Anneke; Judge, Andrew; Morrey, Mark; Chandra, Amit; Hurley, Hannah; Grover, Liam; Bingham, Ian; Siegel, Bernard; Rattley, Matt S.; Buckler, R. Lee; McKeon, David; Krumholz, Katie; Hook, Lilian; May, Michael; Rikabi, Sarah; Pigott, Rosie; Morys, Megan; Sabokbar, Afsie; Titus, Emily; Laabi, Yacine; Lemaitre, Gilles; Zahkia, Raymond; Sipp, Doug; Horne, Robert; Bravery, Christopher; Williams, David; Wall, Ivan; Snyder, Evan Y.; Karp, Jeffrey M.; Barker, Richard W.; Bure, Kim; Carr, Andrew J.; Reeve, Brock

2013-01-01

Abstract Increased global connectivity has catalyzed technological development in almost all industries, in part through the facilitation of novel collaborative structures. Notably, open innovation and crowd-sourcing—of expertise and/or funding—has tremendous potential to increase the efficiency with which biomedical ecosystems interact to deliver safe, efficacious and affordable therapies to patients. Consequently, such practices offer tremendous potential in advancing development of cellular therapies. In this vein, the CASMI Translational Stem Cell Consortium (CTSCC) was formed to unite global thought-leaders, producing academically rigorous and commercially practicable solutions to a range of challenges in pluripotent stem cell translation. Critically, the CTSCC research agenda is defined through continuous consultation with its international funding and research partners. Herein, initial findings for all research focus areas are presented to inform global product development strategies, and to stimulate continued industry interaction around biomanufacturing, strategic partnerships, standards, regulation and intellectual property and clinical adoption. PMID:24304079

Impact of climate and host availability on future distribution of Colorado potato beetle.

PubMed

Wang, Cong; Hawthorne, David; Qin, Yujia; Pan, Xubin; Li, Zhihong; Zhu, Shuifang

2017-07-03

Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB) is a devastating invasive pest of potato both in its native North America and now across Eurasia. It also damages eggplant, tomato and feeds on several wild species in the Solanaceae, such as S. eleagnifolium and S. rostratum Dunal (SR). Since first categorized as a pest in 1864, CPB has spread rapidly across North America, Europe and Asia. In light of its invasiveness and economic importance, it is necessary to study how climate change and host availability may alter the distribution of the CPB. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were used to anticipate global range expansion as influenced by environmental conditions, and by the possibility of cooperative invasion of CPB and its wild host SR. The results indicate that both CPB and SR can occupy warm areas of North America, South Africa, Europe, China, and Australia. Future climate conditions may promote CPB expansion into northern regions and SR into the circumpolar latitudes. The existing range and continued spread of SR may also assist the global expansion of CPB. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of global climate change and host availability on its potential global distribution.

Neocortical dynamics at multiple scales: EEG standing waves, statistical mechanics, and physical analogs.

PubMed

Ingber, Lester; Nunez, Paul L

2011-02-01

The dynamic behavior of scalp potentials (EEG) is apparently due to some combination of global and local processes with important top-down and bottom-up interactions across spatial scales. In treating global mechanisms, we stress the importance of myelinated axon propagation delays and periodic boundary conditions in the cortical-white matter system, which is topologically close to a spherical shell. By contrast, the proposed local mechanisms are multiscale interactions between cortical columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers. A mechanical model consisting of a stretched string with attached nonlinear springs demonstrates the general idea. The string produces standing waves analogous to large-scale coherent EEG observed in some brain states. The attached springs are analogous to the smaller (mesoscopic) scale columnar dynamics. Generally, we expect string displacement and EEG at all scales to result from both global and local phenomena. A statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI) calculates oscillatory behavior consistent with typical EEG, within columns, between neighboring columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers, across cortical regions via myelinated fibers, and also derives a string equation consistent with the global EEG model. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

2014-12-01

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

Substantial nitrogen pollution embedded in international trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oita, Azusa; Malik, Arunima; Kanemoto, Keiichiro; Geschke, Arne; Nishijima, Shota; Lenzen, Manfred

2016-02-01

Anthropogenic emissions of reactive nitrogen to the atmosphere and water bodies can damage human health and ecosystems. As a measure of a nation’s contribution to this potential damage, a country’s nitrogen footprint has been defined as the quantity of reactive nitrogen emitted during the production, consumption and transportation of commodities consumed within that country, whether those commodities are produced domestically or internationally. Here we use global emissions databases, a global nitrogen cycle model, and a global input-output database of domestic and international trade to calculate the nitrogen footprints for 188 countries as the sum of emissions of ammonia, nitrogen oxides and nitrous oxide to the atmosphere, and of nitrogen potentially exportable to water bodies. Per-capita footprints range from under 7 kg N yr-1 in some developing countries to over 100 kg N yr-1 in some wealthy nations. Consumption in China, India, the United States and Brazil is responsible for 46% of global emissions. Roughly a quarter of the global nitrogen footprint is from commodities that were traded across country borders. The main net exporters have significant agricultural, food and textile exports, and are often developing countries, whereas important net importers are almost exclusively developed economies. We conclude that substantial local nitrogen pollution is driven by demand from consumers in other countries.

Polygenic pleiotropy and potential causal relationships between educational attainment, neurobiological profile, and positive psychotic symptoms.

PubMed

Lin, Yen-Feng; Chen, Chia-Yen; Öngür, Dost; Betensky, Rebecca; Smoller, Jordan W; Blacker, Deborah; Hall, Mei-Hua

2018-05-16

Event-related potential (ERP) components have been used to assess cognitive functions in patients with psychotic illness. Evidence suggests that among patients with psychosis there is a distinct heritable neurophysiologic phenotypic subtype captured by impairments across a range of ERP measures. In this study, we investigated the genetic basis of this "globally impaired" ERP cluster and its relationship to psychosis and cognitive abilities. We applied K-means clustering to six ERP measures to re-derive the globally impaired (n = 60) and the non-globally impaired ERP clusters (n = 323) in a sample of cases with schizophrenia (SCZ = 136) or bipolar disorder (BPD = 121) and healthy controls (n = 126). We used genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for SCZ, BPD, college completion, and childhood intelligence as the discovery datasets to derive polygenic risk scores (PRS) in our study sample and tested their associations with globally impaired ERP. We conducted mediation analyses to estimate the proportion of each PRS effect on severity of psychotic symptoms that is mediated through membership in the globally impaired ERP. Individuals with globally impaired ERP had significantly higher PANSS-positive scores (β = 3.95, P = 0.005). The SCZ-PRS was nominally associated with globally impaired ERP (unadjusted P = 0.01; R 2  = 3.07%). We also found a significant positive association between the college-PRS and globally impaired ERP (FDR-corrected P = 0.004; R 2  = 6.15%). The effect of college-PRS on PANSS positivity was almost entirely (97.1%) mediated through globally impaired ERP. These results suggest that the globally impaired ERP phenotype may represent some aspects of brain physiology on the path between genetic influences on educational attainment and psychotic symptoms.

Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration estimation to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith methods in the study of global drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Zheng, Ziyan; Duan, Yawen

2017-12-01

Drylands are among those regions most sensitive to climate and environmental changes and human-induced perturbations. The most widely accepted definition of the term dryland is a ratio, called the Surface Wetness Index (SWI), of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET) being below 0.65. PET is commonly estimated using the Thornthwaite (PET Th) and Penman-Monteith equations (PET PM). The present study compared spatiotemporal characteristics of global drylands based on the SWI with PET Th and PET PM. Results showed vast differences between PET Th and PET PM; however, the SWI derived from the two kinds of PET showed broadly similar characteristics in the interdecadal variability of global and continental drylands, except in North America, with high correlation coefficients ranging from 0.58 to 0.89. It was found that, during 1901-2014, global hyper-arid and semi-arid regions expanded, arid and dry sub-humid regions contracted, and drylands underwent interdecadal fluctuation. This was because precipitation variations made major contributions, whereas PET changes contributed to a much lesser degree. However, distinct differences in the interdecadal variability of semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions were found. This indicated that the influence of PET changes was comparable to that of precipitation variations in the global dry-wet transition zone. Additionally, the contribution of PET changes to the variations in global and continental drylands gradually enhanced with global warming, and the Thornthwaite method was found to be increasingly less applicable under climate change.

Climate's Role in Terroir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. V.

2012-12-01

The marriage between a given winegrape cultivar planted in its ideal climate, over favorable topography and physical soil characteristics, combine to create the potential to produce fine wine. The French term terroir embodies this potential as a holistic concept that relates to both environmental and cultural factors that together influence the grape growing to wine production continuum. While the landscape, geology, soil, and climate strongly interact to influence the vine's balance of nutrients and water, climate is clearly of prevailing importance in that it limits where grapes can be grown at both the global and site scale. This talk will review the nature of climate's role in terroir through a discussion of the structure of climate in wine regions globally and how this structure influences cultivar suitability. Furthermore, the talk will use two of the most commonly planted red wine cultivars as examples - Pinot Noir and Cabernet Sauvignon - providing details on the historic, current, and future climate structure of wine regions growing these cultivars. In general the examination reveals that cool climate cultivars tend to have a narrower climate niche for high quality wine production, than do warmer climate cultivars, with less range of adaptation. Furthermore, the range of the climate suitability of these two cultivars shows that potentially new terroirs for each are waiting to be found.

Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia; Kusler, Jon

2000-01-01

Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

NASA Global Hawk: A Unique Capability for the Pursuit of Earth Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naftel, J. Chris

2007-01-01

For more than 2 years, the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center has been preparing for the receipt of two Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration Global Hawk air vehicles from the United States Air Force. NASA Dryden intends to establish a Global Hawk Project Office, which will be responsible for developing the infrastructure required to operate this unmanned aerial system and establishing a trained maintenance and operations team. The first flight of a NASA Global Hawk air vehicle is expected to occur in 2008. The NASA Global Hawk system can be used by a variety of customers, including U.S. Government agencies, civilian organizations, universities, and state governments. Initially, the main focus of the research activities is expected to be Earth science related. A combination of the vehicle s range, endurance, altitude, payload power, payload volume, and payload weight capabilities separates the Global Hawk unmanned aerial system from all other platforms available to the science community. This report describes the NASA Global Hawk system and current plans for the NASA air vehicle concept of operations, and provides examples of potential missions with an emphasis on science missions.

Interactive learning and action: realizing the promise of synthetic biology for global health.

PubMed

Betten, A Wieke; Roelofsen, Anneloes; Broerse, Jacqueline E W

2013-09-01

The emerging field of synthetic biology has the potential to improve global health. For example, synthetic biology could contribute to efforts at vaccine development in a context in which vaccines and immunization have been identified by the international community as being crucial to international development efforts and, in particular, the millennium development goals. However, past experience with innovations shows that realizing a technology's potential can be difficult and complex. To achieve better societal embedding of synthetic biology and to make sure it reaches its potential, science and technology development should be made more inclusive and interactive. Responsible research and innovation is based on the premise that a broad range of stakeholders with different views, needs and ideas should have a voice in the technological development and deployment process. The interactive learning and action (ILA) approach has been developed as a methodology to bring societal stakeholders into a science and technology development process. This paper proposes an ILA in five phases for an international effort, with national case studies, to develop socially robust applications of synthetic biology for global health, based on the example of vaccine development. The design is based on results of a recently initiated ILA project on synthetic biology; results from other interactive initiatives described in the literature; and examples of possible applications of synthetic biology for global health that are currently being developed.

Global estimations of the inventory and mitigation potential of methane emissions from rice cultivation conducted using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiaoyuan; Akiyama, Hiroko; Yagi, Kazuyuki; Akimoto, Hajime

2009-06-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and methane emission (CH4) from rice paddies has been an important component of these guidelines. While there have been many estimates of global CH4 emissions from rice fields, none of them have been obtained using the IPCC guidelines. Therefore, we used the Tier 1 method described in the 2006 IPCC guidelines to estimate the global CH4 emissions from rice fields. To accomplish this, we used country-specific statistical data regarding rice harvest areas and expert estimates of relevant agricultural activities. The estimated global emission for 2000 was 25.6 Tg a-1, which is at the lower end of earlier estimates and close to the total emission summarized by individual national communications. Monte Carlo simulation revealed a 95% uncertainty range of 14.8-41.7 Tg a-1; however, the estimation uncertainty was found to depend on the reliability of the information available regarding the amount of organic amendments and the area of rice fields that were under continuous flooding. We estimated that if all of the continuously flooded rice fields were drained at least once during the growing season, the CH4 emissions would be reduced by 4.1 Tg a-1. Furthermore, we estimated that applying rice straw off season wherever and whenever possible would result in a further reduction in emissions of 4.1 Tg a-1 globally. Finally, if both of these mitigation options were adopted, the global CH4 emission from rice paddies could be reduced by 7.6 Tg a-1. Although draining continuously flooded rice fields may lead to an increase in nitrous oxide (N2O) emission, the global warming potential resulting from this increase is negligible when compared to the reduction in global warming potential that would result from the CH4 reduction associated with draining the fields.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Potential of Antimicrobial Peptides as Biocides

PubMed Central

Laverty, Garry; Gorman, Sean P.; Gilmore, Brendan F.

2011-01-01

Antimicrobial peptides constitute a diverse class of naturally occurring antimicrobial molecules which have activity against a wide range of pathogenic microorganisms. Antimicrobial peptides are exciting leads in the development of novel biocidal agents at a time when classical antibiotics are under intense pressure from emerging resistance, and the global industry in antibiotic research and development stagnates. This review will examine the potential of antimicrobial peptides, both natural and synthetic, as novel biocidal agents in the battle against multi-drug resistant pathogen infections. PMID:22072905

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

PubMed Central

Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Mohamed, Samira F.; Khamis, Fathiya; Ekesi, Sunday

2015-01-01

To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and management strategies. PMID:26252204

Global screening for Critical Habitat in the terrestrial realm

PubMed Central

Blyth, Simon; Bennun, Leon; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Hoffmann, Michael; Burgess, Neil D.; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Jones, Matt I.; Kapos, Val; Pilgrim, John; Tolley, Melissa J.; Underwood, Emma C.; Weatherdon, Lauren V.

2018-01-01

Critical Habitat has become an increasingly important concept used by the finance sector and businesses to identify areas of high biodiversity value. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) defines Critical Habitat in their highly influential Performance Standard 6 (PS6), requiring projects in Critical Habitat to achieve a net gain of biodiversity. Here we present a global screening layer of Critical Habitat in the terrestrial realm, derived from global spatial datasets covering the distributions of 12 biodiversity features aligned with guidance provided by the IFC. Each biodiversity feature is categorised as ‘likely’ or ‘potential’ Critical Habitat based on: 1. Alignment between the biodiversity feature and the IFC Critical Habitat definition; and 2. Suitability of the spatial resolution for indicating a feature’s presence on the ground. Following the initial screening process, Critical Habitat must then be assessed in-situ by a qualified assessor. This analysis indicates that a total of 10% and 5% of the global terrestrial environment can be considered as likely and potential Critical Habitat, respectively, while the remaining 85% did not overlap with any of the biodiversity features assessed and was classified as ‘unknown’. Likely Critical Habitat was determined principally by the occurrence of Key Biodiversity Areas and Protected Areas. Potential Critical Habitat was predominantly characterised by data representing highly threatened and unique ecosystems such as ever-wet tropical forests and tropical dry forests. The areas we identified as likely or potential Critical Habitat are based on the best available global-scale data for the terrestrial realm that is aligned with IFC’s Critical Habitat definition. Our results can help businesses screen potential development sites at the early project stage based on a range of biodiversity features. However, the study also demonstrates several important data gaps and highlights the need to incorporate new and improved global spatial datasets as they become available. PMID:29565977

Multiple Determinants, Common Vulnerabilities, and Creative Responses: Addressing the AIDS Pandemic in Diverse Populations Globally

PubMed Central

Mayer, Kenneth H.; Pape, Jean William; Wilson, Phill; Diallo, Dazon Dixon; Saavedra, Jorge; Mimiaga, Matthew J.; Koenig, Serena; Farmer, Paul

2012-01-01

The AIDS epidemic has been fueled by global inequities. Ranging from gender inequality and underdevelopment to homophobia impeding health care access for men who have sex with men (MSM), imbalanced resource allocations and social biases have potentiated the epidemic’s spread. However, recognition of culturally specific aspects of each microepidemic has yielded development of community-based organizations, which have resulted in locally effective responses to AIDS. This effective approach to HIV prevention, care and treatment is illustrated through examples of community-based responses in Haiti, the United States, Africa, and other impoverished settings. PMID:22772387

Latitudinal shifts in spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks and spruce-fir forest distrbutions with climate change

Treesearch

D.W. Williams; Andrew Liebhold

1997-01-01

Changes in global temperatures over the next century resulting from the greenhouse effect may have profound effects on the distribution and abundance of insect populations. One general hypothesis is the poleward shift of species distributions. We investigated potential range shifts for the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, in the...

Assessing the Potential for Openness: A Framework for Examining Course-Level OER Implementation in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Judith, Kate; Bull, David

2016-01-01

The implementation of open educational resources (OER) at the course level in higher education poses numerous challenges to education practitioners--ranging from discoverability challenges to the lack of knowledge on how to best localize and utilize OER as courseware. Drawing on case studies of OER initiatives globally, the article discusses…

75 FR 32728 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List van Rossem's...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-09

... range may be considered significant, and why. (5) The potential effects of climate change on this...). The petitioner also asserts the effects of global climate change, including sea-level rise, shoreline...). Fluctuations in food availability resulting from natural or anthropogenic changes in the environment (CBD 2009...

Predicting global population connectivity and targeting conservation action for snow leopard across its range

Treesearch

Philip Riordan; Samuel A. Cushman; David Mallon; Kun Shi; Joelene Hughes

2016-01-01

Movements of individuals within and among populations help to maintain genetic variability and population viability. Therefore, understanding landscape connectivity is vital for effective species conservation. The snow leopard is endemic to mountainous areas of central Asia and occurs within 12 countries. We assess potential connectivity across the species’...

Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants.

PubMed

Matesanz, Silvia; Gianoli, Ernesto; Valladares, Fernando

2010-09-01

Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments. © 2010 New York Academy of Sciences.

A new method to estimate average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Pramod K.; Soupir, Michelle L.

2012-10-01

A new model, Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface (GSRHS), was developed to estimate the average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surfaces (Gh). The GSRHS model uses the transmission function (Tf,ij), which was developed to control hourly global solar radiation, for predicting solar radiation. The inputs of the model were: hour of day, day (Julian) of year, optimized parameter values, solar constant (H0), latitude, and longitude of the location of interest. The parameter values used in the model were optimized at a location (Albuquerque, NM), and these values were applied into the model for predicting average hourly global solar radiations at four different locations (Austin, TX; El Paso, TX; Desert Rock, NV; Seattle, WA) of the United States. The model performance was assessed using correlation coefficient (r), Mean Absolute Bias Error (MABE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determinations (R2). The sensitivities of parameter to prediction were estimated. Results show that the model performed very well. The correlation coefficients (r) range from 0.96 to 0.99, while coefficients of determination (R2) range from 0.92 to 0.98. For daily and monthly prediction, error percentages (i.e. MABE and RMSE) were less than 20%. The approach we proposed here can be potentially useful for predicting average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surface for different locations, with the use of readily available data (i.e. latitude and longitude of the location) as inputs.

Introduction beyond a species range: a relationship between population origin, adaptive potential and plant performance.

PubMed

Volis, S; Ormanbekova, D; Yermekbayev, K; Song, M; Shulgina, I

2014-09-01

The adaptive potential of a population defines its importance for species survival in changing environmental conditions such as global climate change. Very few empirical studies have examined adaptive potential across species' ranges, namely, of edge vs core populations, and we are unaware of a study that has tested adaptive potential (namely, variation in adaptive traits) and measured performance of such populations in conditions not currently experienced by the species but expected in the future. Here we report the results of a Triticum dicoccoides population study that employed transplant experiments and analysis of quantitative trait variation. Two populations at the opposite edges of the species range (1) were locally adapted; (2) had lower adaptive potential (inferred from the extent of genetic quantitative trait variation) than the two core populations; and (3) were outperformed by the plants from the core population in the novel environment. The fact that plants from the species arid edge performed worse than plants from the more mesic core in extreme drought conditions beyond the present climatic envelope of the species implies that usage of peripheral populations for conservation purposes must be based on intensive sampling of among-population variation.

Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

2014-04-01

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species’ distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr−1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities. PMID:27504632

Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

PubMed

Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

Experimental and life cycle assessment analysis of gas emission from mechanically-biologically pretreated waste in a landfill with energy recovery.

PubMed

Di Maria, Francesco; Sordi, Alessio; Micale, Caterina

2013-11-01

The global gaseous emissions produced by landfilling the Mechanically Sorted Organic Fraction (MSOF) with different weeks of Mechanical Biological Treatment (MBT) was evaluated for an existing waste management system. One MBT facility and a landfill with internal combustion engines fuelled by the landfill gas for electrical energy production operate in the waste management system considered. An experimental apparatus was used to simulate 0, 4, 8 and 16weeks of aerobic stabilization and the consequent biogas potential (Nl/kg) of a large sample of MSOF withdrawn from the full-scale MBT. Stabilization achieved by the waste was evaluated by dynamic oxygen uptake and fermentation tests. Good correlation coefficients (R(2)), ranging from 0.7668 to 0.9772, were found between oxygen uptake, fermentation and anaerobic test values. On the basis of the results of several anaerobic tests, the methane production rate k (year(-1)) was evaluated. k ranged from 0.436 to 0.308year(-1) and the bio-methane potential from 37 to 12Nm(3)/tonne, respectively, for the MSOF with 0 and 16weeks of treatment. Energy recovery from landfill gas ranged from about 11 to 90kWh per tonne of disposed MSOF depending on the different scenario investigated. Life cycle analysis showed that the scenario with 0weeks of pre-treatment has the highest weighted global impact even if opposite results were obtained with respect to the single impact criteria. MSOF pre-treatment periods longer than 4weeks showed rather negligible variation in the global impact of system emissions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

PubMed

Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

2011-01-01

Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

Climate change and the global malaria recession.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2010-05-20

The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

2000-01-01

The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

Climate change, resource use and food security in midcentury under a range of plausible scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.

2016-12-01

Achieving and maintaining food security at local, national and global scales is challenged by changes in population, income and climate, among other socioeconomic and biophysical drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a systematic and multidisciplinary approach. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the 14 other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve tools and conduct ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments and policies under alternative global futures to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners. Alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios are explored using an integrated system of climate, water, crop and economic models. This presentation will share findings from recent projections of food production and prices to 2050 at global and regional scales, together with their potential implications for land and water use, food security, nutrition and health.

Global Health Diplomacy, "San Francisco Values," and HIV/AIDS: From the Local to the Global.

PubMed

Kevany, Sebastian

2015-01-01

San Francisco has a distinguished history as a cosmopolitan, progressive, and international city, including extensive associations with global health. These circumstances have contributed to new, interdisciplinary scholarship in the field of global health diplomacy (GHD). In the present review, we describe the evolution and history of GHD at the practical and theoretical levels within the San Francisco medical community, trace related associations between the local and the global, and propose a range of potential opportunities for further development of this dynamic field. We provide a historical overview of the development of the "San Francisco Model" of collaborative, community-owned HIV/AIDS treatment and care programs as pioneered under the "Ward 86" paradigm of the 1980s. We traced the expansion and evolution of this model to the national level under the Ryan White Care Act, and internationally via the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. In parallel, we describe the evolution of global health diplomacy practices, from the local to the global, including the integration of GHD principles into intervention design to ensure social, political, and cultural acceptability and sensitivity. Global health programs, as informed by lessons learned from the San Francisco Model, are increasingly aligned with diplomatic principles and practices. This awareness has aided implementation, allowed policymakers to pursue related and progressive social and humanitarian issues in conjunction with medical responses, and elevated global health to the realm of "high politics." In the 21st century, the integration between diplomatic, medical, and global health practices will continue under "smart global health" and GHD paradigms. These approaches will enhance intervention cost-effectiveness by addressing and optimizing, in tandem with each other, a wide range of (health and non-health) foreign policy, diplomatic, security, and economic priorities in a synergistic manner--without sacrificing health outcomes. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in psychological well-being in female patients with clinically diagnosed depression: an exploratory approach in a therapeutic setting.

PubMed

Van de Vliet, P; Knapen, J; Fox, Kr; Onghena, P; David, A; Probst, M; Van Coppenolle, H; Pieters, G

2003-11-01

The objective of this exploratory one-group pretest-posttest study was to evaluate the nature of psychological change in inward depressed psychiatric patients attending multi-disciplinary treatment, including physical activity, designed to improve mental well-being. Female depressed psychiatric patients (n = 51) were examined before and after this programme over a period of 3 months. The following psychological parameters were assessed: depression, anxiety, global self-esteem, and physical self-perceptions. Depressed patients demonstrated statistically significant improvements in depression, anxiety, global self-esteem and physical self-worth (t(50) ranging from -3.76 to 4.65, all p < 0.007; ES ranging from 0.53 to -0.65). Changes in depression and anxiety displayed a strong negative correlation with changes in global self-esteem, and those changes are independent of the initial severity of the depressive symptoms ( F(2,48) ranging from 0.03 to 0.70, n.s.). Patients with greater improvement in physical self-perceptions reported greater improvement anxious symptoms then patients who did not improve. Consequently, within the limitations of the research design it can be concluded that the programme appeared successful in improving psychological well-being in female depressed patients. Results also provide preliminary insight into the potential role of the physical self in recovery.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems: Predictions of seasonal and cumulative effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinus, R. W.; Roddy, D. J.

1988-01-01

The physical effects of certain large events, such as giant impacts, explosive volcanism, or combined nuclear explosions, have the potential of inducing global catastrophes in our terrestrial environment. Such highly energetic events can inject substantial quantities of material into the atmosphere. In turn, this changes the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and modifies atmospheric temperatures to produce a wide range of global effects. One consequence is the introduction of serious stresses in both plants and animals throughout the Earth's biosphere. For example, recent studies predict that forest lands, crop lands, and range lands would suffer specific physical and biological degradations if major physical and chemical disruptions occurred in our atmosphere. Forests, which cover over 4 times 10 to the 9th power hectares (4 times 10 to the 7th power sq km) of our planet, or about 3 times the area now cultivated for crops, are critical to many processes in the biosphere. Forests contribute heavily to the production of atmospheric oxygen, supply the major volume of biomass, and provide a significant percentage of plant and animal habitats.

A potential-of-mean-force approach for fracture mechanics of heterogeneous materials using the lattice element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laubie, Hadrien; Radjaï, Farhang; Pellenq, Roland; Ulm, Franz-Josef

2017-08-01

Fracture of heterogeneous materials has emerged as a critical issue in many engineering applications, ranging from subsurface energy to biomedical applications, and requires a rational framework that allows linking local fracture processes with global fracture descriptors such as the energy release rate, fracture energy and fracture toughness. This is achieved here by means of a local and a global potential-of-mean-force (PMF) inspired Lattice Element Method (LEM) approach. In the local approach, fracture-strength criteria derived from the effective interaction potentials between mass points are shown to exhibit a scaling commensurable with the energy dissipation of fracture processes. In the global PMF-approach, fracture is considered as a sequence of equilibrium states associated with minimum potential energy states analogous to Griffith's approach. It is found that this global approach has much in common with a Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) approach, in which mass points are randomly removed following a maximum dissipation criterion until the energy release rate reaches the fracture energy. The duality of the two approaches is illustrated through the application of the PMF-inspired LEM for fracture propagation in a homogeneous linear elastic solid using different means of evaluating the energy release rate. Finally, by application of the method to a textbook example of fracture propagation in a heterogeneous material, it is shown that the proposed PMF-inspired LEM approach captures some well-known toughening mechanisms related to fracture energy contrast, elasticity contrast and crack deflection in the considered two-phase layered composite material.

New vegetation type map of India prepared using satellite remote sensing: Comparison with global vegetation maps and utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, P. S.; Behera, M. D.; Murthy, M. S. R.; Roy, Arijit; Singh, Sarnam; Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Jha, C. S.; Sudhakar, S.; Joshi, P. K.; Reddy, Ch. Sudhakar; Gupta, Stutee; Pujar, Girish; Dutt, C. B. S.; Srivastava, V. K.; Porwal, M. C.; Tripathi, Poonam; Singh, J. S.; Chitale, Vishwas; Skidmore, A. K.; Rajshekhar, G.; Kushwaha, Deepak; Karnatak, Harish; Saran, Sameer; Giriraj, A.; Padalia, Hitendra; Kale, Manish; Nandy, Subrato; Jeganathan, C.; Singh, C. P.; Biradar, C. M.; Pattanaik, Chiranjibi; Singh, D. K.; Devagiri, G. M.; Talukdar, Gautam; Panigrahy, Rabindra K.; Singh, Harnam; Sharma, J. R.; Haridasan, K.; Trivedi, Shivam; Singh, K. P.; Kannan, L.; Daniel, M.; Misra, M. K.; Niphadkar, Madhura; Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Prasad, Nupoor; Tripathi, O. P.; Prasad, P. Rama Chandra; Dash, Pushpa; Qureshi, Qamer; Tripathi, S. K.; Ramesh, B. R.; Gowda, Balakrishnan; Tomar, Sanjay; Romshoo, Shakil; Giriraj, Shilpa; Ravan, Shirish A.; Behera, Soumit Kumar; Paul, Subrato; Das, Ashesh Kumar; Ranganath, B. K.; Singh, T. P.; Sahu, T. R.; Shankar, Uma; Menon, A. R. R.; Srivastava, Gaurav; Neeti; Sharma, Subrat; Mohapatra, U. B.; Peddi, Ashok; Rashid, Humayun; Salroo, Irfan; Krishna, P. Hari; Hajra, P. K.; Vergheese, A. O.; Matin, Shafique; Chaudhary, Swapnil A.; Ghosh, Sonali; Lakshmi, Udaya; Rawat, Deepshikha; Ambastha, Kalpana; Malik, Akhtar H.; Devi, B. S. S.; Gowda, Balakrishna; Sharma, K. C.; Mukharjee, Prashant; Sharma, Ajay; Davidar, Priya; Raju, R. R. Venkata; Katewa, S. S.; Kant, Shashi; Raju, Vatsavaya S.; Uniyal, B. P.; Debnath, Bijan; Rout, D. K.; Thapa, Rajesh; Joseph, Shijo; Chhetri, Pradeep; Ramachandran, Reshma M.

2015-07-01

A seamless vegetation type map of India (scale 1: 50,000) prepared using medium-resolution IRS LISS-III images is presented. The map was created using an on-screen visual interpretation technique and has an accuracy of 90%, as assessed using 15,565 ground control points. India has hitherto been using potential vegetation/forest type map prepared by Champion and Seth in 1968. We characterized and mapped further the vegetation type distribution in the country in terms of occurrence and distribution, area occupancy, percentage of protected area (PA) covered by each vegetation type, range of elevation, mean annual temperature and precipitation over the past 100 years. A remote sensing-amenable hierarchical classification scheme that accommodates natural and semi-natural systems was conceptualized, and the natural vegetation was classified into forests, scrub/shrub lands and grasslands on the basis of extent of vegetation cover. We discuss the distribution and potential utility of the vegetation type map in a broad range of ecological, climatic and conservation applications from global, national and local perspectives. We used 15,565 ground control points to assess the accuracy of products available globally (i.e., GlobCover, Holdridge's life zone map and potential natural vegetation (PNV) maps). Hence we recommend that the map prepared herein be used widely. This vegetation type map is the most comprehensive one developed for India so far. It was prepared using 23.5 m seasonal satellite remote sensing data, field samples and information relating to the biogeography, climate and soil. The digital map is now available through a web portal (http://bis.iirs.gov.in).

Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

PubMed

Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

2017-07-01

The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting North American Scolytinae invasions in the Southern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Lantschner, Maria Victoria; Atkinson, Thomas H; Corley, Juan C; Liebhold, Andrew M

2017-01-01

Scolytinae species are recognized as one of the most important tree mortality agents in coniferous forests worldwide, and many are known invaders because they are easily transported in wood products. Nonnative trees planted in novel habitats often exhibit exceptional growth, in part because they escape herbivore (such as Scolytinae) pressure from their native range. Increasing accidental introductions of forest pest species as a consequence of international trade, however, is expected to diminish enemy release of nonnative forest trees. In this context, there is need to characterize patterns of forest herbivore species invasion risks at global scales. In this study, we analyze the establishment potential of 64 North American Scolytinae species in the Southern Hemisphere. We use climate-based ecological niche models (MaxEnt) to spatially define the potential distribution of these Scolytinae species in regions of the Southern Hemisphere were pines are planted. Our model predicts that all of the pine-growing regions of the Southern Hemisphere are capable of supporting some species of North American Scolytinae, but there are certain "hotspot" regions, southeastern Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Peru and southwestern Australia, that appear to be suitable for a particularly large number of species. The species with the highest predicted risk of establishment were Dendroctonus valens, Xyleborus intrusus, Hylastes tenuis, Ips grandicollis, Gnathotrichus sulcatus, and Ips calligraphus. Given that global commerce is anticipated to continue to increase, we can expect that more Scolytinae species will continue to establish outside their range. Our results provide information useful for identifying a global list of potential invasive species in pine plantations, and may assist in the design of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing pest establishment in Southern Hemisphere forest plantations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Invasive termites in a changing climate: A global perspective.

PubMed

Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Bertelsmeier, Cleo

2017-02-01

Termites are ubiquitous insects in tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate regions and play an important role in ecosystems. Several termite species are also significant economic pests, mainly in urban areas where they attack human-made structures, but also in natural forest habitats. Worldwide, approximately 28 termite species are considered invasive and have spread beyond their native ranges, often with significant economic consequences. We used predictive climate modeling to provide the first global risk assessment for 13 of the world's most invasive termites. We modeled the future distribution of 13 of the most serious invasive termite species, using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and two projection years (2050 and 2070). Our results show that all but one termite species are expected to significantly increase in their global distribution, irrespective of the climatic scenario and year. The range shifts by species (shift vectors) revealed a complex pattern of distributional changes across latitudes rather than simple poleward expansion. Mapping of potential invasion hotspots in 2050 under the RCP 4.5 scenario revealed that the most suitable areas are located in the tropics. Substantial parts of all continents had suitable environmental conditions for more than four species simultaneously. Mapping of changes in the number of species revealed that areas that lose many species (e.g., parts of South America) are those that were previously very species-rich, contrary to regions such as Europe that were overall not among the most important invasion hotspots, but that showed a great increase in the number of potential invaders. The substantial economic and ecological damage caused by invasive termites is likely to increase in response to climate change, increased urbanization, and accelerating economic globalization, acting singly or interactively.

High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

PubMed Central

Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Goetze, Erica

2013-01-01

Abstract Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. PMID:24567838

From Newton's Law to the Linear Boltzmann Equation Without Cut-Off

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayi, Nathalie

2017-03-01

We provide a rigorous derivation of the linear Boltzmann equation without cut-off starting from a system of particles interacting via a potential with infinite range as the number of particles N goes to infinity under the Boltzmann-Grad scaling. More particularly, we will describe the motion of a tagged particle in a gas close to global equilibrium. The main difficulty in our context is that, due to the infinite range of the potential, a non-integrable singularity appears in the angular collision kernel, making no longer valid the single-use of Lanford's strategy. Our proof relies then on a combination of Lanford's strategy, of tools developed recently by Bodineau, Gallagher and Saint-Raymond to study the collision process, and of new duality arguments to study the additional terms associated with the long-range interaction, leading to some explicit weak estimates.

On the representation of many-body interactions in water

DOE PAGES

Medders, Gregory R.; Gotz, Andreas W.; Morales, Miguel A.; ...

2015-09-09

Our recent work has shown that the many-body expansion of the interactionenergy can be used to develop analytical representations of global potential energy surfaces (PESs) for water. In this study, the role of short- and long-range interactions at different orders is investigated by analyzing water potentials that treat the leading terms of the many-body expansion through implicit (i.e., TTM3-F and TTM4-F PESs) and explicit (i.e., WHBB and MB-pol PESs) representations. Moreover, it is found that explicit short-range representations of 2-body and 3-body interactions along with a physically correct incorporation of short- and long-range contributions are necessary for an accurate representationmore » of the waterinteractions from the gas to the condensed phase. Likewise, a complete many-body representation of the dipole moment surface is found to be crucial to reproducing the correct intensities of the infrared spectrum of liquid water.« less

Increasing the realism of projected tree species ranges by incorporating migration potential: an eastern US case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Jantz, P.; Goetz, S. J.

2015-12-01

Models of vegetation distributions are used for a wide variety of purposes, from global assessments of biome shifts and biogeochemical feedbacks to local management planning. Dynamic vegetation models, mostly mechanistic in origin, are valuable for regional to global studies but remain limited for more local-scale applications, especially those that require species-specific responses to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used for such applications, but these too have several outstanding limitations, one of the most prominent being a lack of dispersal and migration. Several hybrid models have recently been developed, but these generally require detailed parameterization of species-level attributes that may not be known. Here we present an approach to couple migration potential with SDM output for a large number of species in order to more realistically project future range shifts. We focus on 40 tree species in the eastern US of potential management concern, either because of their canopy dominance, ecosystem functions, or potential for utilizing future climates. Future climates were taken from a CMIP5 model ensemble average using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We used Random Forests to characterize current and future environmental suitability, and modeled migration as a negative exponential kernel that is affected by forest fragmentation and the density of current seed sources. We present results in a vulnerability framework relevant for a number of ongoing management activities in the region. We find an overarching pattern of northward and eastward range shifts, with high-elevation and northern species being the most adversely impacted. Because of limitations to migration, many newly suitable areas could not be utilized without active intervention. Only a few areas exhibited consistently favorable conditions that could be utilized by the relevant species, including the central Appalachian foothills and the Florida panhandle. We suggest that a continued effort to include migration potential into vegetation models can lead to more realistic results and management-relevant products.

Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patz, J.

1996-12-31

Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectlymore » contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.« less

Global risk from extreme geophysical events: threat identification and assessment.

PubMed

McGuire, W J

2006-08-15

In an increasingly interconnected world, any single geophysical hazard is capable of having consequences far beyond the range of immediate physical effects. Most recently, this was demonstrated by the 2004 Asian tsunami, which took the lives of citizens from 57 different nations, and by Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, which raised fuel prices worldwide and contributed to a record UK trade deficit in the month following the devastation of New Orleans. On an altogether wider scale, global geophysical events (GGEs) are natural phenomena capable of having wholesale deleterious consequences for the world's environment, economy and society. These may arise (i) due to a global physical effect, such as an episode of severe planetary cooling in response to a volcanic 'super-eruption' or large comet or asteroid impact, or (ii) as a result of subsidiary ramifications for the global economy and social fabric of a cataclysmic regional event, such as an Atlantic- or Pacific-wide 'mega-tsunami', or a more spatially confined event at a strategically sensitive location, for example the awaited major Tokyo earthquake. While very infrequent, the wide-ranging-and potentially ruinous-consequences of a GGE for the well-being of the international community make it essential that they are seriously considered within any comprehensive assessment of natural threats.

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide.

PubMed

Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W R; Bange, Hermann W

2012-05-05

We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N(2)O and N(2)O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N(2)O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N(2)O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N(2)O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N(2)O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N(2)O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr(-1). This is in agreement with estimates of the global N(2)O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N(2)O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N(2)O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed.

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karstensen, J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.

2014-09-01

Several studies have connected emissions of greenhouse gases to economic and trade data to quantify the causal chain from consumption to emissions and climate change. These studies usually combine data and models originating from different sources, making it difficult to estimate uncertainties in the end results. We estimate uncertainties in economic data, multi-pollutant emission statistics and metric parameters, and use Monte Carlo analysis to quantify contributions to uncertainty and to determine how uncertainty propagates to estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions for the year 2007. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants included, the metric and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are largely dominated by the climate sensitivity and the parameters associated with the warming effects of CO2. The economic data have a relatively small impact on uncertainty at the global and national level, while much higher uncertainties are found at the sectoral level. Our results suggest that consumption-based national emissions are not significantly more uncertain than the corresponding production based emissions, since the largest uncertainties are due to metric and emissions which affect both perspectives equally. The two perspectives exhibit different sectoral uncertainties, due to changes of pollutant compositions. We find global sectoral consumption uncertainties in the range of ±9-±27% using the global temperature potential with a 50 year time horizon, with metric uncertainties dominating. National level uncertainties are similar in both perspectives due to the dominance of CO2 over other pollutants. The consumption emissions of the top 10 emitting regions have a broad uncertainty range of ±9-±25%, with metric and emissions uncertainties contributing similarly. The Absolute global temperature potential with a 50 year time horizon has much higher uncertainties, with considerable uncertainty overlap for regions and sectors, indicating that the ranking of countries is uncertain.

Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how California’s environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...

Avian abundance thresholds, human-altered landscapes, and the challenge of assemblage-level conservation

Treesearch

Kevin J. Gutzwiller; Samuel K. Riffell; Curtis H. Flather

2015-01-01

Context: Land-use change is a global phenomenon with potential to generate abrupt spatial changes in species’ distributions. Objectives: We assessed whether theory about the internal structure of bird species’ geographic ranges can be refined to reflect abrupt changes in distribution and abundance associated with human influences on landscapes, and whether the...

Exploiting the explosion of information associated with whole genome sequencing to tackle Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) in global food production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The rates of foodborne disease caused by gastrointestinal pathogens continue to be a concern in both the developed and developing worlds. The growing world population, the increasing complexity of agri-food networks and the wide range of foods now associated with STEC are potential drivers for incre...

Teaching for "Global Telephony": A Case Study of a Community School for India's 21st Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byker, Erik Jon

2015-01-01

Although controversial, perhaps no piece of legislation has the potential to transform India's future more than the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act (RTE). Upon the passage and enforcement of RTE in 2009, the Indian government instituted a series of wide-ranging reforms to India's education system. For example, the act…

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Economic costs of protistan and metazoan parasites to global mariculture.

PubMed

Shinn, A P; Pratoomyot, J; Bron, J E; Paladini, G; Brooker, E E; Brooker, A J

2015-01-01

Parasites have a major impact on global finfish and shellfish aquaculture, having significant effects on farm production, sustainability and economic viability. Parasite infections and impacts can, according to pathogen and context, be considered to be either unpredictable/sporadic or predictable/regular. Although both types of infection may result in the loss of stock and incur costs associated with the control and management of infection, predictable infections can also lead to costs associated with prophylaxis and related activities. The estimation of the economic cost of a parasite event is frequently complicated by the complex interplay of numerous factors associated with a specific incident, which may range from direct production losses to downstream socio-economic impacts on livelihoods and satellite industries associated with the primary producer. In this study, we examine the world's major marine and brackish water aquaculture production industries and provide estimates of the potential economic costs attributable to a range of key parasite pathogens using 498 specific events for the purposes of illustration and estimation of costs. This study provides a baseline resource for risk assessment and the development of more robust biosecurity practices, which can in turn help mitigate against and/or minimise the potential impacts of parasite-mediated disease in aquaculture.

Microbial activity in the marine deep biosphere: progress and prospects.

PubMed

Orcutt, Beth N; Larowe, Douglas E; Biddle, Jennifer F; Colwell, Frederick S; Glazer, Brian T; Reese, Brandi Kiel; Kirkpatrick, John B; Lapham, Laura L; Mills, Heath J; Sylvan, Jason B; Wankel, Scott D; Wheat, C Geoff

2013-01-01

The vast marine deep biosphere consists of microbial habitats within sediment, pore waters, upper basaltic crust and the fluids that circulate throughout it. A wide range of temperature, pressure, pH, and electron donor and acceptor conditions exists-all of which can combine to affect carbon and nutrient cycling and result in gradients on spatial scales ranging from millimeters to kilometers. Diverse and mostly uncharacterized microorganisms live in these habitats, and potentially play a role in mediating global scale biogeochemical processes. Quantifying the rates at which microbial activity in the subsurface occurs is a challenging endeavor, yet developing an understanding of these rates is essential to determine the impact of subsurface life on Earth's global biogeochemical cycles, and for understanding how microorganisms in these "extreme" environments survive (or even thrive). Here, we synthesize recent advances and discoveries pertaining to microbial activity in the marine deep subsurface, and we highlight topics about which there is still little understanding and suggest potential paths forward to address them. This publication is the result of a workshop held in August 2012 by the NSF-funded Center for Dark Energy Biosphere Investigations (C-DEBI) "theme team" on microbial activity (www.darkenergybiosphere.org).

Microbial activity in the marine deep biosphere: progress and prospects

PubMed Central

Orcutt, Beth N.; LaRowe, Douglas E.; Biddle, Jennifer F.; Colwell, Frederick S.; Glazer, Brian T.; Reese, Brandi Kiel; Kirkpatrick, John B.; Lapham, Laura L.; Mills, Heath J.; Sylvan, Jason B.; Wankel, Scott D.; Wheat, C. Geoff

2013-01-01

The vast marine deep biosphere consists of microbial habitats within sediment, pore waters, upper basaltic crust and the fluids that circulate throughout it. A wide range of temperature, pressure, pH, and electron donor and acceptor conditions exists—all of which can combine to affect carbon and nutrient cycling and result in gradients on spatial scales ranging from millimeters to kilometers. Diverse and mostly uncharacterized microorganisms live in these habitats, and potentially play a role in mediating global scale biogeochemical processes. Quantifying the rates at which microbial activity in the subsurface occurs is a challenging endeavor, yet developing an understanding of these rates is essential to determine the impact of subsurface life on Earth's global biogeochemical cycles, and for understanding how microorganisms in these “extreme” environments survive (or even thrive). Here, we synthesize recent advances and discoveries pertaining to microbial activity in the marine deep subsurface, and we highlight topics about which there is still little understanding and suggest potential paths forward to address them. This publication is the result of a workshop held in August 2012 by the NSF-funded Center for Dark Energy Biosphere Investigations (C-DEBI) “theme team” on microbial activity (www.darkenergybiosphere.org). PMID:23874326

Potential effects of global warming on the distribution of a temperate univoltine insect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Hurd, L.E.

1993-06-01

Poleward migration to remain within temperature tolerance ranges as the earth warms poses a problem for species with limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperate univoltine insect, Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae), is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before killing frost in the fall; too many allow egg hatch prior to killing frost. We combined field observations of dispersal ability with laboratory measurements of the relationship between temperature and maturation rate, and applied these to a global warming model to predict the effect of climate change on regional distribution of this insect by 2100more » A.D. Based on the simplified biological assumptions of our model, T, sinensis would be reduced to local populations in the northern portions and higher elevations of its present broadly contiguous range, and species with similar life histories may face regional or total extinction.« less

Global Tree Range Shifts Under Forecasts from Two Alternative GCMs Using Two Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Kumar, J.; Potter, K. M.; Hoffman, F. M.

2013-12-01

Global shifts in the environmentally suitable ranges of 215 tree species were predicted under forecasts from two GCMs (the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the Hadley Model), each under two IPCC future climatic scenarios (A1 and B1), each at two future dates (2050 and 2100). The analysis considers all global land surface at a resolution of 4 km2. A statistical multivariate clustering procedure was used to quantitatively delineate 30 thousand environmentally homogeneous ecoregions across present and 8 potential future global locations at once, using global maps of 17 environmental characteristics describing temperature, precipitation, soils, topography and solar insolation. Presence of each tree species on Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) plots and in Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) samples was used to select a subset of suitable ecoregions from the full set of 30 thousand. Once identified, this suitable subset of ecoregions was compared to the known current range of the tree species under present conditions. Predicted present ranges correspond well with current understanding for all but a few of the 215 tree species. The subset of suitable ecoregions for each tree species can then be tracked into the future to determine whether the suitable home range for this species remains the same, moves, grows, shrinks, or disappears under each model/scenario combination. Occurrence and growth performance measurements for various tree species across the U.S. are limited to FIA plots. We present a new, general-purpose empirical imputation method which associates sparse measurements of dependent variables with particular multivariate clustered combinations of the independent variables, and then estimates values for unmeasured clusters, based on directional proximity in multidimensional data space, at both the cluster and map-cell levels of resolution. Using Associative Clustering, we scaled up the FIA point measurements into contonuous maps that show the expected growth and suitability for individual tree species across the continental US. Maps were generated for each tree species showing the Minimum Required Movement (MRM) straight-line distance from each currently suitable location to the geographically nearest "lifeboat" location having suitable conditions in the future. Locations that are the closest "lifeboats" for many MRM propagules originating from wide surrounding areas may constitute high-priority preservation targets as a refugium against climatic change.

On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunt, Daniel J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Valdes, Paul J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Loptson, Claire A.

2012-01-01

The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO2, lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO2. However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-10

and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles Congressional Research Service Forward-Based Global Strike ( FBGS ...they may address the nuclear ambiguity issues raised by long-range ballistic missiles in the CPGS program. Forward-Based Global Strike ( FBGS

Calculations of rate constants for the three-body recombination of H2 in the presence of H2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwenke, David W.

1988-01-01

A new global potential energy hypersurface for H2 + H2 is constructed and quasiclassical trajectory calculations performed using the resonance complex theory and energy transfer mechanism to estimate the rate of three body recombination over the temperature range 100 to 5000 K. The new potential is a faithful representation of ab initio electron structure calculations, is unchanged under the operation of exchanging H atoms, and reproduces the accurate H3 potential as one H atom is pulled away. Included in the fitting procedure are geometries expected to be important when one H2 is near or above the dissociation limit. The dynamics calculations explicitly include the motion of all four atoms and are performed efficiently using a vectorized variable-stepsize integrator. The predicted rate constants are approximately a factor of two smaller than experimental estimates over a broad temperature range.

Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, Pierre; Anav, Alessandro; De Marco, Alessandra; Paoletti, Elena

2017-10-01

The impact of ground-level ozone (O3) on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4-5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2-10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

Global hotspots of river erosion under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plink-Bjorklund, P.; Reichler, T.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation plays a significant role for river hydrology, flood hazards and landscape response. For example, the September 2013 rainstorm in the Colorado Front Range evacuated the equivalent of hundreds to thousands of years of hillslope weathering products. Although promoted by steep topography, the Colorado event is clearly linked to rainfall intensity, since most of the 1100 debris flows occurred within the highest rainfall contour. Additional evidence for a strong link between extreme precipitation and river erosion comes from the sedimentary record, and especially from that of past greenhouse climates. The existence of such a link suggests that information about global rainfall patterns can be used to define regions of increased erosion potential. However, the question arises what rainfall criteria to use and how well the method works. A related question is how ongoing climate change and the corresponding shifts in rainfall might impact the results. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis and output from a climate model to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to landscape change in response to extreme precipitation. In order to define the regions, we combine several hydroclimatological and geomorphological criteria into a single index of erosion potential. We show that for current climate, our criteria applied to atmospheric reanalysis or to climate model data successfully localize known areas of increased erosion potential, such as the Colorado region. We then apply our criteria to climate model data for future climate to document how the location, extent, and intensity of erosion hotspots are likely to change under global warming.

Wind, waves, and wing loading: Morphological specialization may limit range expansion of endangered albatrosses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suryan, R.M.; Anderson, D.J.; Shaffer, S.A.; Roby, D.D.; Tremblay, Y.; Costa, D.P.; Sievert, P.R.; Sato, F.; Ozaki, K.; Balogh, G.R.; Nakamura, N.

2008-01-01

Among the varied adaptations for avian flight, the morphological traits allowing large-bodied albatrosses to capitalize on wind and wave energy for efficient long-distance flight are unparalleled. Consequently, the biogeographic distribution of most albatrosses is limited to the windiest oceanic regions on earth; however, exceptions exist. Species breeding in the North and Central Pacific Ocean (Phoebastria spp.) inhabit regions of lower wind speed and wave height than southern hemisphere genera, and have large intrageneric variation in body size and aerodynamic performance. Here, we test the hypothesis that regional wind and wave regimes explain observed differences in Phoebastria albatross morphology and we compare their aerodynamic performance to representatives from the other three genera of this globally distributed avian family. In the North and Central Pacific, two species (short-tailed P. albatrus and waved P. irrorata) are markedly larger, yet have the smallest breeding ranges near highly productive coastal upwelling systems. Short-tailed albatrosses, however, have 60% higher wing loading (weight per area of lift) compared to waved albatrosses. Indeed, calculated aerodynamic performance of waved albatrosses, the only tropical albatross species, is more similar to those of their smaller congeners (black-footed P. nigripes and Laysan P. immutabilis), which have relatively low wing loading and much larger foraging ranges that include central oceanic gyres of relatively low productivity. Globally, the aerodynamic performance of short-tailed and waved albatrosses are most anomalous for their body sizes, yet consistent with wind regimes within their breeding season foraging ranges. Our results are the first to integrate global wind and wave patterns with albatross aerodynamics, thereby identifying morphological specialization that may explain limited breeding ranges of two endangered albatross species. These results are further relevant to understanding past and potentially predicting future distributional limits of albatrosses globally, particularly with respect to climate change effects on basin-scale and regional wind fields.

Insects at low pressure: applications to artificial ecosystems and implications for global windborne distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cockell, C.; Catling, D.; Waites, H.

1999-01-01

Insects have a number of potential roles in closed-loop life support systems. In this study we examined the tolerance of a range of insect orders and life stages to drops in atmospheric pressure using a terrestrial atmosphere. We found that all insects studied could tolerate pressures down to 100 mb. No effects on insect respiration were noted down to 500 mb. Pressure toleration was not dependent on body volume. Our studies demonstrate that insects are compatible with plants in low-pressure artificial and closed-loop ecosystems. The results also have implications for arthropod colonization and global distribution on Earth.

The scientific challenges to forecasting and nowcasting the solar origins of space weather (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, C. J.; Title, A. M.

2013-12-01

With the full-sphere continuous coverage of the Sun achieved by combining SDO and STEREO imagery comes the realization that solar activity is a manifestation of local processes that respond to long-range if not global influences. Numerical experiments provide insights into these couplings, as well as into the intricacies of destabilizations of field emerging into pre-existing configurations and evolving within the context of their dynamic surroundings. With these capabilities grows an understanding of the difficulties in forecasting of the solar origins of space weather: we need assimilative global non-potential field models, but our observational resources are too limited to meet that need.

Towards a global assessment of pyrogenic carbon from vegetation fires.

PubMed

Santín, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan H; Kane, Evan S; Masiello, Caroline A; Ohlson, Mikael; de la Rosa, Jose Maria; Preston, Caroline M; Dittmar, Thorsten

2016-01-01

The production of pyrogenic carbon (PyC; a continuum of organic carbon (C) ranging from partially charred biomass and charcoal to soot) is a widely acknowledged C sink, with the latest estimates indicating that ~50% of the PyC produced by vegetation fires potentially sequesters C over centuries. Nevertheless, the quantitative importance of PyC in the global C balance remains contentious, and therefore, PyC is rarely considered in global C cycle and climate studies. Here we examine the robustness of existing evidence and identify the main research gaps in the production, fluxes and fate of PyC from vegetation fires. Much of the previous work on PyC production has focused on selected components of total PyC generated in vegetation fires, likely leading to underestimates. We suggest that global PyC production could be in the range of 116-385 Tg C yr(-1) , that is ~0.2-0.6% of the annual terrestrial net primary production. According to our estimations, atmospheric emissions of soot/black C might be a smaller fraction of total PyC (<2%) than previously reported. Research on the fate of PyC in the environment has mainly focused on its degradation pathways, and its accumulation and resilience either in situ (surface soils) or in ultimate sinks (marine sediments). Off-site transport, transformation and PyC storage in intermediate pools are often overlooked, which could explain the fate of a substantial fraction of the PyC mobilized annually. We propose new research directions addressing gaps in the global PyC cycle to fully understand the importance of the products of burning in global C cycle dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

Climate changes, shifting ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie

2015-01-01

Even a fleeting mention of the Everglades conjures colorful images of alligators, panthers, flamingos, and manatees. Over the centuries, this familiar cast of characters has become synonymous with life in south Florida. But the workings of a changing climate have the potential to significantly alter the menagerie of animals that call this area home. Global projections suggest south Florida wildlife will need to contend with higher temperatures, drier conditions, and rising seas in the years ahead. Recent modeling efforts shed new light on the potential outcomes these changes may have for threatened and endangered species in the area.

Converged three-dimensional quantum mechanical reaction probabilities for the F + H2 reaction on a potential energy surface with realistic entrance and exit channels and comparisons to results for three other surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynch, Gillian C.; Halvick, Philippe; Zhao, Meishan; Truhlar, Donald G.; Yu, Chin-Hui; Kouri, Donald J.; Schwenke, David W.

1991-01-01

Accurate three-dimensional quantum mechanical reaction probabilities are presented for the reaction F + H2 yields HF + H on the new global potential energy surface 5SEC for total angular momentum J = 0 over a range of translational energies from 0.15 to 4.6 kcal/mol. It is found that the v-prime = 3 HF vibrational product state has a threshold as low as for v-prime = 2.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

Ocean acidification compromises a planktic calcifier with implications for global carbon cycling.

PubMed

Davis, Catherine V; Rivest, Emily B; Hill, Tessa M; Gaylord, Brian; Russell, Ann D; Sanford, Eric

2017-05-22

Anthropogenically-forced changes in ocean chemistry at both the global and regional scale have the potential to negatively impact calcifying plankton, which play a key role in ecosystem functioning and marine carbon cycling. We cultured a globally important calcifying marine plankter (the foraminifer, Globigerina bulloides) under an ecologically relevant range of seawater pH (7.5 to 8.3 total scale). Multiple metrics of calcification and physiological performance varied with pH. At pH > 8.0, increased calcification occurred without a concomitant rise in respiration rates. However, as pH declined from 8.0 to 7.5, calcification and oxygen consumption both decreased, suggesting a reduced ability to precipitate shell material accompanied by metabolic depression. Repair of spines, important for both buoyancy and feeding, was also reduced at pH < 7.7. The dependence of calcification, respiration, and spine repair on seawater pH suggests that foraminifera will likely be challenged by future ocean conditions. Furthermore, the nature of these effects has the potential to actuate changes in vertical transport of organic and inorganic carbon, perturbing feedbacks to regional and global marine carbon cycling. The biological impacts of seawater pH have additional, important implications for the use of foraminifera as paleoceanographic indicators.

Niche conservatism of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti - two mosquito species with different invasion histories.

PubMed

Cunze, Sarah; Kochmann, Judith; Koch, Lisa K; Klimpel, Sven

2018-05-16

Biological invasions have been associated with niche changes; however, their occurrence is still debated. We assess whether climatic niches between native and non-native ranges have changed during the invasion process using two globally spread mosquitoes as model species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti. Considering the different time spans since their invasions (>300 vs. 30-40 years), niche changes were expected to be more likely for Ae. aegypti than for Ae. albopictus. We used temperature and precipitation variables as descriptors for the realized climatic niches and different niche metrics to detect niche dynamics in the native and non-native ranges. High niche stability, therefore, no niche expansion but niche conservatism was revealed for both species. High niche unfilling for Ae. albopictus indicates a great potential for further expansion. Highest niche occupancies in non-native ranges occurred either under more temperate (North America, Europe) or tropical conditions (South America, Africa). Aedes aegypti has been able to fill its native climatic niche in the non-native ranges, with very low unfilling. Our results challenge the assumption of rapid evolutionary change of climatic niches as a requirement for global invasions but support the use of native range-based niche models to project future invasion risk on a large scale.

Conformational analysis and global warming potentials of 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoro-2-propanol from absorption spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin, Paul J.; Le Bris, Karine; Strong, Kimberly

2017-12-01

Absorption cross-sections of 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoro-2-propanol (HFIP) were derived from Fourier transform infrared spectra recorded from 530 to 3400 cm-1 with a resolution of 0.1 cm-1 over a temperature range of 300-362 K. These results were compared to previously published experimental measurements made at room temperature and to a theoretical spectrum from density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Good agreement is found between the experimentally derived results, DFT calculations, and previously published data. The only temperature dependence observed was in the amplitude of some of the absorption peaks due to the changing ratio of the stable conformations of HFIP. This temperature dependence does not result in a significant trend in integrated band strength as a function of temperature. The average value for integrated band strength is found to be (2.649 ± 0.065)x10-16 cm molecule-1 for HFIP over the spectral range of 595 to 3010 cm-1. Radiative efficiency (RE) and the global warming potential (GWP) for HFIP were also derived. A RE of 0.293 ± 0.059 Wm-2ppbv-1 is derived, which leads to a GWP100 of 188 in the range of 530 to 3000 cm-1. The DFT calculation is linearly adjusted to match the experimental spectrum. Using this adjusted DFT spectrum to expand the range below 530 to 0 cm-1 , increases the RE to 0.317 ± 0.063 Wm-2ppbv-1 and the GWP100 to 203.

Allocating Scarce Resources Strategically - An Evaluation and Discussion of the Global Fund's Pattern of Disbursements

PubMed Central

McCoy, David; Kinyua, Kelvin

2012-01-01

Background The Global Fund is under pressure to improve its rationing of financial support. This study describes the GF's pattern of disbursements in relation to total health expenditure (THE), government health expenditure (GHE), income status and the burden of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. It also examines the potential for recipient countries to increase domestic public financing for health. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of 104 countries that received Global Fund disbursements in 2009. It analyses data on Global Fund disbursements; health financing indicators; government revenue and expenditure; and burden of disease. Findings Global Fund disbursements made up 0.37% of THE across all 104 countries; but with considerable country variation ranging from 0.002% to 53.4%. Global Fund disbursements to government amounted to 0.47% of GHE across the 104 countries, but again with considerable variation (in three countries more than half of GHE was based on Global Fund support). Although the Global Fund provides progressively more funding for lower income countries on average, there is much variation at the country such that here was no correlation between per capita GF disbursements and per capita THE, nor between per capita GF disbursement to government and per capita GHE. There was only a slight positive correlation between per capita GF disbursement and burden of disease. Several countries with a high degree of 'financial dependency' upon the Fund have the potential to increase levels of domestic financing for health. Discussion The Global Fund can improve its targeting of resources so that it better matches the pattern of global need. To do this it needs to: a) reduce the extent to which funds are allocated on a demand-driven basis; and b) align its funding model to broader health systems financing and patterns of health expenditure beyond the three diseases. PMID:22590496

Analysis of possible future atmospheric retention of fossil fuel CO/sub 2/

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edmonds, J.A.; Reilly, J.; Trabalka, J.R.

1984-09-01

This report investigates the likely rates and the potential range of future CO/sub 2/ emissions, combined with knowledge of the global cycle of carbon, to estimate a possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations through the year 2075. Historic fossil fuel usage to the present, growing at a rate of 4.5% per year until 1973 and at a slower rate of 1.9% after 1973, was combined with three scenarios of projected emissions growth ranging from approximately 0.2 to 2.8% per year to provide annual CO/sub 2/ emissions data for two different carbon cycle models. The emissions scenarios were constructedmore » using an energy-economic model and by varying key parameters within the bounds of currently expected future values. The extreme values for CO/sub 2/ emissions in the year 2075 are 6.8 x 10/sup 15/ and 91 x 10/sup 15/ g C year/sup -1/. Carbon cycle model simulations used a range of year - 1800 preindustrial atmospheric concentrations of 245 to 292 ppM CO/sub 2/ and three scenarios of bioshere conversion as additional atmospheric CO/sub 2/ source terms. These simulations yield a range of possible atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations in year 2075 of approximately 500 to 1500 ppM, with a median of about 700 ppM. The time at which atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would potentially double from the preindustrial level ranges from year 2025 to >2075. The practical, programmatic value of this forecast exercise is that it forces quantitative definition of the assumptions, and the uncertainties therein, which form the basis of our understanding of the natural biogeochemical cycle of carbon and both historic and future human influences on the dynamics of the global cycle. Assumptions about the possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels provide a basis on which to evaluate the implications of these changes on climate and the biosphere. 44 references, 17 figures, 21 tables.« less

Cirrus Cloud Seeding has Potential to Cool Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storelvmo, T.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Muri, H.; Pfeffer, M.; Barahona, D.; Nenes, A.

2013-01-01

Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere, have a net warming effect on Earth s climate. Consequently, a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thickness would cool the climate. Recent research indicates that by seeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote ice nucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced. We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate model with a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and find that cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times to present day. However, the desired effect is only obtained for seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimal range. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, a seeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higher than optimal concentration results in an over-seeding that could have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetime and contributing to global warming.

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants.

PubMed

McLinden, Mark O; Brown, J Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; Kazakov, Andrei F; Domanski, Piotr A

2017-02-17

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable. We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performance in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. The maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; Kazakov, Andrei F.; Domanski, Piotr A.

2017-02-01

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable. We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performance in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. The maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.

Cis- and trans-perfluorodecalin: Infrared spectra, radiative efficiency and global warming potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bris, Karine; DeZeeuw, Jasmine; Godin, Paul J.; Strong, Kimberly

2017-12-01

Perfluorodecalin (PFD) is a molecule used in various medical applications for its capacity to dissolve gases. This potent greenhouse gas was detected for the first time in the atmosphere in 2005. We present infrared absorption cross-section spectra of a pure vapour of cis- and trans-perfluorodecalin at a resolution of 0.1 cm-1. Measurements were performed in the 560-3000 cm-1 spectral range using Fourier transform spectroscopy. The spectra have been compared with previous experimental data and theoretical calculations by density functional theory. The new experimental absorption cross-sections have been used to calculate a lifetime-corrected radiative efficiency at 300 K of 0.62 W m-2 ppb-1 and 0.57 W.m-2.ppb-1 for the cis and trans isomers respectively. This leads to a 100-year time horizon global warming potential of 8030 for cis-PFD and 7440 for trans-PFD.

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

PubMed Central

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; Kazakov, Andrei F.; Domanski, Piotr A.

2017-01-01

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable. We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performance in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. The maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range. PMID:28211518

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-03

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues Amy F. Woolf Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy...February 3, 2017 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41464 Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles...Congressional Research Service Summary Conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) weapons would allow the United States to strike targets anywhere

Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, David G.; Yates, David; Tebaldi, Claudia

2008-12-01

Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region, increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040, decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040, and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change.

Analytic Empirical Potentials for all Stable Isotopologues of the Ground X(^1Σ^+) State of ZnO from Purely Rotational Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dattani, Nikesh S.; Zack, Lindsay; Sun, Ming; Johnson, Erin R.; Le Roy, Robert; Ziurys, Lucy

2014-06-01

We report eight new ultra-high precision (±5 kHz) measurements of purely rotational N(1←0) transitions in several vibrational states of all stable isotopologues of the ground X(11Σ+) -state of ZnO. Combined with previous high-resolution (±50 kHz) measurements of purely rotational transitions between higher rotational states for the same system, we are able to build analytic potentials for 64Zn16O, 66Zn16O, 67Zn16O, 68Zn16O, and 70Zn16O, that are in full agreement with all known spectroscopic measurements of the system. Despite there being absolutely no vibrational information, our empirical potentials are able to determine the size of the vibrational spacings and the bond lengths, each with a precision of more than two orders of magnitude greater than the most precise empirical values previously known. We then use the XDM method to calculate values for the C6, C8, and C10 long-range constants for this molecule, and use these to accurately anchor the long-range regions of the potentials, where no measurements have yet been performed. In the region lying between the short-range measurements and the long-range theory on which our potentials are based, our final analytic global potentials are in very good agreement with state of the art ab initio potentials. L. N. Zack, R. L. Pulliam, L. M. Ziurys, J. Mol. Spec., 256, 186-191 (2009).

Insect-specific viruses and their potential impact on arbovirus transmission

PubMed Central

Vasilakis, Nikos; Tesh, Robert B.

2015-01-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are the causative agents of significant morbidity and mortality among humans and animals globally. In the last few years, the widespread adoption of next generation sequencing and metagenomics has led to a new era of virus discovery, where many novel viruses have been documented, exhibiting a restricted host-range in mosquitoes. They represent a wide-range of insect-specific viruses within the families of Bunyaviridae, Flaviviridae, Mesoniviridae, Reoviridae, Rhabdoviridae, Togaviridae, and the newly recognized taxon of Negeviruses. Collectively, their discovery has opened new vistas about the extent of viral diversity and evolution, their influence on vector competence and ability of their insect hosts to transmit human pathogens (e.g. arboviruses), and their potential development as biological control agents or novel vaccine platforms. PMID:26322695

Global Geopotential Modelling from Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-10-01

measured range-rate sampled at regular intervals. The expansion of the potential has been truncated at degree n = 331, because little information on...averaging interval is 4 s , and sampling takes place every 4 s ; if residual data are used, with respect to a reference model of specified accuracy, complete...LEGFDN, MODEL, andNVAR... .. ....... 93 B-4 Sample Output .. .. .. .... ..... ..... ..... 94 Appendix C: Detailed Listings Degree by Degree

Assessing Controls on the Geometry and Dimensions of Modern Barrier Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulhern, J.; Johnson, C. L.; Martin, J. M.

2015-12-01

Barrier islands are highly ephemeral features, shaped by wave, tide, and storm energy. The processes that govern the size, shape, and motion of barrier islands are not well constrained, yet central to coastal dynamics. While the global distribution of barrier islands has been mapped and assessed, there is little consensus on the forces controlling barrier island formation, motion, or preservation. This study presents a new semi-global database of modern barrier islands to better understand their morphology and spatial distribution. We have mapped, in Google Earth, the subaerial extent of >350 barrier islands and spits, measuring spatial characteristic such as exposed area, perimeter, length, and width. These objects are cross-referenced with parameters that potentially control morphology, including tidal range, wave height, climate, distance from the continental shelf, proximity to fluvial output, and tectonic setting. This approach provides a more optimal framework to assess controls on coastal features, including barrier island morphology, and to investigate potential geometric scaling relationships. Preliminary analysis shows trends in the spatial characteristics of barrier islands. There is a strong linear relationship between the perimeter and length (y= -0.59 + 0.42x, R2=0.95). Linear trends also relate length to area when the data are separated by tidal range to wave height ratio. Assessment of barrier island shape supports the hypothesis of Hayes (1979) that barrier islands in wave-dominated settings are long and linear while those in mixed energy setting are more rounded. The barrier islands of the Texas Gulf of Mexico are larger than the global average for the database, with distinctly longer length values (41.16 km vs. 15.77 km respectively) and larger areas (103.81 km2 vs. 42.14 km2 respectively). Initial assessment shows that tidal range and wave height are primary controls barrier island dimensions. Future work will consider climate, latitude, fluvial input, and tectonic regime as additional factors. Assessing modern barrier islands will lend insight into potential paleomorphodynamic relationships and help determine how islands are transferred into the rock record, with implications for sequence stratigraphy, subsurface reservoirs, etc.

Tourism and the conservation of critically endangered frogs.

PubMed

Morrison, Clare; Simpkins, Clay; Castley, J Guy; Buckley, Ralf C

2012-01-01

Protected areas are critical for the conservation of many threatened species. Despite this, many protected areas are acutely underfunded, which reduces their effectiveness significantly. Tourism is one mechanism to promote and fund conservation in protected areas, but there are few studies analyzing its tangible conservation outcomes for threatened species. This study uses the 415 IUCN critically endangered frog species to evaluate the contribution of protected area tourism revenue to conservation. Contributions were calculated for each species as the proportion of geographic range inside protected areas multiplied by the proportion of protected area revenues derived from tourism. Geographic ranges were determined from IUCN Extent of Occurrence maps. Almost 60% (239) of critically endangered frog species occur in protected areas. Higher proportions of total range are protected in Nearctic, Australasian and Afrotopical regions. Tourism contributions to protected area budgets ranged from 5-100%. These financial contributions are highest for developing countries in the Afrotropical, Indomalayan and Neotropical regions. Data for both geographic range and budget are available for 201 critically endangered frog species with proportional contributions from tourism to species protection ranging from 0.8-99%. Tourism's financial contributions to critically endangered frog species protection are highest in the Afrotropical region. This study uses a coarse measure but at the global scale it demonstrates that tourism has significant potential to contribute to global frog conservation efforts.

Tourism and the Conservation of Critically Endangered Frogs

PubMed Central

Morrison, Clare; Simpkins, Clay; Castley, J. Guy; Buckley, Ralf C.

2012-01-01

Protected areas are critical for the conservation of many threatened species. Despite this, many protected areas are acutely underfunded, which reduces their effectiveness significantly. Tourism is one mechanism to promote and fund conservation in protected areas, but there are few studies analyzing its tangible conservation outcomes for threatened species. This study uses the 415 IUCN critically endangered frog species to evaluate the contribution of protected area tourism revenue to conservation. Contributions were calculated for each species as the proportion of geographic range inside protected areas multiplied by the proportion of protected area revenues derived from tourism. Geographic ranges were determined from IUCN Extent of Occurrence maps. Almost 60% (239) of critically endangered frog species occur in protected areas. Higher proportions of total range are protected in Nearctic, Australasian and Afrotopical regions. Tourism contributions to protected area budgets ranged from 5–100%. These financial contributions are highest for developing countries in the Afrotropical, Indomalayan and Neotropical regions. Data for both geographic range and budget are available for 201 critically endangered frog species with proportional contributions from tourism to species protection ranging from 0.8–99%. Tourism's financial contributions to critically endangered frog species protection are highest in the Afrotropical region. This study uses a coarse measure but at the global scale it demonstrates that tourism has significant potential to contribute to global frog conservation efforts. PMID:22984440

Global optimization of cholic acid aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jójárt, Balázs; Viskolcz, Béla; Poša, Mihalj; Fejer, Szilard N.

2014-04-01

In spite of recent investigations into the potential pharmaceutical importance of bile acids as drug carriers, the structure of bile acid aggregates is largely unknown. Here, we used global optimization techniques to find the lowest energy configurations for clusters composed between 2 and 10 cholate molecules, and evaluated the relative stabilities of the global minima. We found that the energetically most preferred geometries for small aggregates are in fact reverse micellar arrangements, and the classical micellar behaviour (efficient burial of hydrophobic parts) is achieved only in systems containing more than five cholate units. Hydrogen bonding plays a very important part in keeping together the monomers, and among the size range considered, the most stable structure was found to be the decamer, having 17 hydrogen bonds. Molecular dynamics simulations showed that the decamer has the lowest dissociation propensity among the studied aggregation numbers.

Plugfest 2009: Global Interoperability in Telerobotics and Telemedicine

PubMed Central

King, H. Hawkeye; Hannaford, Blake; Kwok, Ka-Wai; Yang, Guang-Zhong; Griffiths, Paul; Okamura, Allison; Farkhatdinov, Ildar; Ryu, Jee-Hwan; Sankaranarayanan, Ganesh; Arikatla, Venkata; Tadano, Kotaro; Kawashima, Kenji; Peer, Angelika; Schauß, Thomas; Buss, Martin; Miller, Levi; Glozman, Daniel; Rosen, Jacob; Low, Thomas

2014-01-01

Despite the great diversity of teleoperator designs and applications, their underlying control systems have many similarities. These similarities can be exploited to enable inter-operability between heterogeneous systems. We have developed a network data specification, the Interoperable Telerobotics Protocol, that can be used for Internet based control of a wide range of teleoperators. In this work we test interoperable telerobotics on the global Internet, focusing on the telesurgery application domain. Fourteen globally dispersed telerobotic master and slave systems were connected in thirty trials in one twenty four hour period. Users performed common manipulation tasks to demonstrate effective master-slave operation. With twenty eight (93%) successful, unique connections the results show a high potential for standardizing telerobotic operation. Furthermore, new paradigms for telesurgical operation and training are presented, including a networked surgery trainer and upper-limb exoskeleton control of micro-manipulators. PMID:24748993

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported dengue fever in Australia

PubMed Central

Huang, Xiaodong; Yakob, Laith; Devine, Gregor; Frentiu, Francesca D.; Fu, Shiu-Yun; Hu, Wenbiao

2016-01-01

Dengue fever (DF) epidemics in Australia are caused by infected international travellers and confined to Northern Queensland where competent vectors exist. Recent analyses suggest that global trade and climate change could lead to the re-establishment of Ae. aegypti across the country and promote the spread of dengue nationally. This study aimed to describe the dynamic spatiotemporal trends of imported DF cases and their origins, identify the current and potential future high-risk regions and locate areas that might be at particular risk of dengue transmission should competent mosquito vectors expand their range. Our results showed that the geographical distribution of imported DF cases has significantly expanded in mainland Australia over the past decade. In recent years, the geographical distribution of source countries of DF has expanded from the Pacific region and Asia to include Africa and the Americas. Australia is now exposed to dengue importations from all of the regions involved in the current global pandemic. The public health implications of a range expansion of dengue mosquito vectors are severe. Enhanced mosquito surveillance in those areas that have high imported cases is called for to reduce emerging threats from this globally expanding pathogen. PMID:27460696

Equatorward dispersion of the Sarychev volcanic plume and the relation to the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xue; Griessbach, Sabine; Hoffmann, Lars

2017-04-01

Sulfur dioxide emissions and subsequent sulfate aerosols from strong volcanic eruptions have large impact on global climate. Although most of previous studies attribute the global influence to volcanic eruptions in the tropics, high-latitude volcanic eruptions are also an important cause for global climate variations. In fact, the potential climate impact of volcanic also largely depends on the season when eruptions occur, the erupted plume height and the surrounding meteorological conditions. This work focuses on the eruption of a high-latitude volcano Sarychev, and the role of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the transport and dispersion of the erupted plumes. First, the sulfur dioxide emission rate and height of emission of the Sarychev eruption in June 2009 are modelled using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model named Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC), together with sulfur dioxide observations of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS/Aqua) and a backward trajectory approach. Then, the transport and dispersion of the plumes are modelled with MPTRAC and validated with sulfur dioxide observations from AIRS and aerosol observations from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). The modelled trajectories and the MIPAS data both show the plumes are transported towards the tropics from the southeast edge of the ASM (in the vertical range of 340-400K) controlled by the clockwise winds of ASM, and from above the ASM (above 400K) in form of in-mixing process. Especially, in the vertical range around 340-400K, a transport barrier based on potential vorticity (PV) gradients separates the 'aerosol hole' inside of the ASM circulation and the aerosol-rich surrounding area, which shows the PV gradients based barrier may be more practical than the barrier based on the geopotential height. With help of ASM circulation, the aerosol transported to the tropics and stayed in the tropical lower stratosphere for about eight months, which were the main aerosol sources during that time. This enables the Sarychev eruption to have potential impact on global radiative budget similar to a tropical volcanic eruption.

Modeling Potential Climatic Treeline of Great Basin Bristlecone Pine in the Snake Mountain Range, Nevada, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruening, J. M.; Tran, T. J.; Bunn, A. G.; Salzer, M. W.; Weiss, S. B.

2015-12-01

Great Basin bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) is a valuable paleoclimate resource due to the climatic sensitivity of its annually-resolved rings. Recent work has shown that low growing season temperatures limit tree growth at the upper treeline ecotone. The presence of precisely dated remnant wood above modern treeline shows that this ecotone shifts at centennial timescales; in some areas during the Holocene climatic optimum treeline was 100 m higher than at present. A recent model from Paulsen and Körner (2014, doi:10.1007/s00035-014-0124-0) predicts global potential treeline position as a function of climate. The model develops three parameters necessary to sustain a temperature-limited treeline; a growing season longer than 94 days, defined by all days with a mean temperature >0.9 °C, and a mean temperature of 6.4 °C across the entire growing season. While maintaining impressive global accuracy in treeline prediction, these parameters are not specific to the semi-arid Great Basin bristlecone pine treelines in Nevada. In this study, we used 49 temperature sensors arrayed across approximately one square kilometer of complex terrain at treeline on Mount Washington to model temperatures using topographic indices. Results show relatively accurate prediction throughout the growing season (e.g., July average daily temperatures were modeled with an R2 of 0.80 and an RMSE of 0.29 °C). The modeled temperatures enabled calibration of a regional treeline model, yielding different parameters needed to predict potential treeline than the global model. Preliminary results indicate that modern Bristlecone pine treeline on and around Mount Washington occurs in areas with a longer growing season length (~160 days defined by all days with a mean temperature >0.9 °C) and a warmer seasonal mean temperature (~9 °C) than the global average. This work will provide a baseline data set on treeline position in the Snake Range derived only from parameters physiologically relevant to demography, and may assist in understanding climate refugia for this species.

Simultaneous Multi-Scale Diffusion Estimation and Tractography Guided by Entropy Spectrum Pathways

PubMed Central

Galinsky, Vitaly L.; Frank, Lawrence R.

2015-01-01

We have developed a method for the simultaneous estimation of local diffusion and the global fiber tracts based upon the information entropy flow that computes the maximum entropy trajectories between locations and depends upon the global structure of the multi-dimensional and multi-modal diffusion field. Computation of the entropy spectrum pathways requires only solving a simple eigenvector problem for the probability distribution for which efficient numerical routines exist, and a straight forward integration of the probability conservation through ray tracing of the convective modes guided by a global structure of the entropy spectrum coupled with a small scale local diffusion. The intervoxel diffusion is sampled by multi b-shell multi q-angle DWI data expanded in spherical waves. This novel approach to fiber tracking incorporates global information about multiple fiber crossings in every individual voxel and ranks it in the most scientifically rigorous way. This method has potential significance for a wide range of applications, including studies of brain connectivity. PMID:25532167

Global and Country-Level Fragility to Major Disruptions in Crop Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puma, M. J.; Wada, Y.; Chon, S. Y.; Cook, B. I.; Nordbotten, J. M.

2016-12-01

New food polices are needed to mitigate vulnerabilities in the global food system to unexpected and severe production losses. The starting point for developing such policies is the ability to quantify the potential range of food and economic losses associated with major food-production shocks. Although individual major shock events are unpredictable, it is possible to quantify the relative vulnerabilities of the global food system as a whole and of individual countries within the system to production shocks. Here we combine a scale for food disruptions, which links the magnitude for a production shock with the corresponding short-term food and economic losses for that event (analogous to the well-known Richter magnitude scale for earthquakes), with country-level food system metrics. We demonstrate the value of our approach using the recent El Niño event of 2015-2016. Ultimately, these metrics can be used as part of efforts to develop national and global level food policies to prepare for and mitigate possible food-supply disruptions.

Symbiosis limits establishment of legumes outside their native range at a global scale

PubMed Central

Simonsen, Anna K.; Dinnage, Russell; Barrett, Luke G.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Thrall, Peter H.

2017-01-01

Microbial symbiosis is integral to plant growth and reproduction, but its contribution to global patterns of plant distribution is unknown. Legumes (Fabaceae) are a diverse and widely distributed plant family largely dependent on symbiosis with nitrogen-fixing rhizobia, which are acquired from soil after germination. This dependency is predicted to limit establishment in new geographic areas, owing to a disruption of compatible host-symbiont associations. Here we compare non-native establishment patterns of symbiotic and non-symbiotic legumes across over 3,500 species, covering multiple independent gains and losses of rhizobial symbiosis. We find that symbiotic legume species have spread to fewer non-native regions compared to non-symbiotic legumes, providing strong support for the hypothesis that lack of suitable symbionts or environmental conditions required for effective nitrogen-fixation are driving these global introduction patterns. These results highlight the importance of mutualisms in predicting non-native species establishment and the potential impacts of microbial biogeography on global plant distributions. PMID:28387250

Elder abuse in Chinese populations: a global review.

PubMed

Dong, XinQi

2015-01-01

This review focuses on the epidemiology of elder abuse in the global Chinese population with respect to its prevalence, risk factors, and consequences, as well as the perceptions of elder abuse. Evidence revealed that elder abuse and its subtypes are common among the global Chinese population with prevalence ranging from 0.2% to 64%. Younger age, lower income levels, depression, cognitive impairment, and lack of social support were consistently associated with self-reported elder abuse. Caregiver burden was a constant risk factor for the proclivity to elder abuse by caregivers. The adverse health outcomes of elder abuse included suicidal ideation and psychological stress. Some primary research gaps exist: such as, lack of consistency in measurements and recall periods, insufficient studies on the causal relationships between potential risk factors and elder abuse, consequences of elder abuse, and possible interventions. In order to reduce the risk of elder abuse in the global Chinese population, collaboration is encouraged among researchers, health care professionals, social service providers, and policy makers.

Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide

PubMed Central

Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W. R.; Bange, Hermann W.

2012-01-01

We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N2O and N2O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N2O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N2O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N2O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N2O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N2O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr−1. This is in agreement with estimates of the global N2O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N2O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N2O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed. PMID:22451110

Accelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming.

PubMed

Steinbauer, Manuel J; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Jurasinski, Gerald; Kulonen, Aino; Lenoir, Jonathan; Pauli, Harald; Rixen, Christian; Winkler, Manuela; Bardy-Durchhalter, Manfred; Barni, Elena; Bjorkman, Anne D; Breiner, Frank T; Burg, Sarah; Czortek, Patryk; Dawes, Melissa A; Delimat, Anna; Dullinger, Stefan; Erschbamer, Brigitta; Felde, Vivian A; Fernández-Arberas, Olatz; Fossheim, Kjetil F; Gómez-García, Daniel; Georges, Damien; Grindrud, Erlend T; Haider, Sylvia; Haugum, Siri V; Henriksen, Hanne; Herreros, María J; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Jaroszynska, Francesca; Kanka, Robert; Kapfer, Jutta; Klanderud, Kari; Kühn, Ingolf; Lamprecht, Andrea; Matteodo, Magali; di Cella, Umberto Morra; Normand, Signe; Odland, Arvid; Olsen, Siri L; Palacio, Sara; Petey, Martina; Piscová, Veronika; Sedlakova, Blazena; Steinbauer, Klaus; Stöckli, Veronika; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teppa, Guido; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Vittoz, Pascal; Woodin, Sarah J; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Wipf, Sonja

2018-04-01

Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mid-twentieth century 1-7 are known as the Great Acceleration and have been discussed as a key indicator of the onset of the Anthropocene epoch 6 . While reports on ecological responses (for example, changes in species range or local extinctions) to the Great Acceleration are multiplying 8, 9 , it is unknown whether such biotic responses are undergoing a similar acceleration over time. This knowledge gap stems from the limited availability of time series data on biodiversity changes across large temporal and geographical extents. Here we use a dataset of repeated plant surveys from 302 mountain summits across Europe, spanning 145 years of observation, to assess the temporal trajectory of mountain biodiversity changes as a globally coherent imprint of the Anthropocene. We find a continent-wide acceleration in the rate of increase in plant species richness, with five times as much species enrichment between 2007 and 2016 as fifty years ago, between 1957 and 1966. This acceleration is strikingly synchronized with accelerated global warming and is not linked to alternative global change drivers. The accelerating increases in species richness on mountain summits across this broad spatial extent demonstrate that acceleration in climate-induced biotic change is occurring even in remote places on Earth, with potentially far-ranging consequences not only for biodiversity, but also for ecosystem functioning and services.

Increase in quantity and quality of suitable areas for invasive species as climate changes.

PubMed

Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Luque, Gloria M; Courchamp, Franck

2013-12-01

As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bazillian, Morgan; Pedersen, Ascha Lychett; Pless, Jacuelyn

Shale gas resource potential in China is assessed to be large, and its development could have wide-ranging economic, environmental, and energy security implications. Although commercial scale shale gas development has not yet begun in China, it holds the potential to change the global energy landscape. Chinese decision-makers are wrestling with the challenges associated with bringing the potential to reality: geologic complexity; infrastructure and logistical difficulties; technological, institutional, social and market development issues; and environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, impacts on water availability and quality, and air pollution. This paper briefly examines the current situation and outlook for shale gasmore » in China, and explores existing and potential avenues for international cooperation. We find that despite some barriers to large-scale development, Chinese shale gas production has the potential to grow rapidly over the medium-term.« less

Global network centrality of university rankings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Weisi; Del Vecchio, Marco; Pogrebna, Ganna

2017-10-01

Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and its global physical connectedness has not been explored in detail. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first large-scale data-driven analysis into whether there is a correlation between university relative ranking performance and its global connectivity via the air transport network. The results show that local access to global hubs (as measured by air transport network betweenness) strongly and positively correlates with the ranking growth (statistical significance in different models ranges between 5% and 1% level). We also found that the local airport's aggregate flight paths (degree) and capacity (weighted degree) has no effect on university ranking, further showing that global connectivity distance is more important than the capacity of flight connections. We also examined the effect of local city economic development as a confounding variable and no effect was observed suggesting that access to global transportation hubs outweighs economic performance as a determinant of university ranking. The impact of this research is that we have determined the importance of the centrality of global connectivity and, hence, established initial evidence for further exploring potential connections between university ranking and regional investment policies on improving global connectivity.

Global network centrality of university rankings

PubMed Central

Del Vecchio, Marco; Pogrebna, Ganna

2017-01-01

Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and its global physical connectedness has not been explored in detail. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first large-scale data-driven analysis into whether there is a correlation between university relative ranking performance and its global connectivity via the air transport network. The results show that local access to global hubs (as measured by air transport network betweenness) strongly and positively correlates with the ranking growth (statistical significance in different models ranges between 5% and 1% level). We also found that the local airport’s aggregate flight paths (degree) and capacity (weighted degree) has no effect on university ranking, further showing that global connectivity distance is more important than the capacity of flight connections. We also examined the effect of local city economic development as a confounding variable and no effect was observed suggesting that access to global transportation hubs outweighs economic performance as a determinant of university ranking. The impact of this research is that we have determined the importance of the centrality of global connectivity and, hence, established initial evidence for further exploring potential connections between university ranking and regional investment policies on improving global connectivity. PMID:29134105

The global methane budget 2000-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Castaldi, Simona; Jackson, Robert B.; Alexe, Mihai; Arora, Vivek K.; Beerling, David J.; Bergamaschi, Peter; Blake, Donald R.; Brailsford, Gordon; Brovkin, Victor; Bruhwiler, Lori; Crevoisier, Cyril; Crill, Patrick; Covey, Kristofer; Curry, Charles; Frankenberg, Christian; Gedney, Nicola; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Ishizawa, Misa; Ito, Akihiko; Joos, Fortunat; Kim, Heon-Sook; Kleinen, Thomas; Krummel, Paul; Lamarque, Jean-François; Langenfelds, Ray; Locatelli, Robin; Machida, Toshinobu; Maksyutov, Shamil; McDonald, Kyle C.; Marshall, Julia; Melton, Joe R.; Morino, Isamu; Naik, Vaishali; O'Doherty, Simon; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Patra, Prabir K.; Peng, Changhui; Peng, Shushi; Peters, Glen P.; Pison, Isabelle; Prigent, Catherine; Prinn, Ronald; Ramonet, Michel; Riley, William J.; Saito, Makoto; Santini, Monia; Schroeder, Ronny; Simpson, Isobel J.; Spahni, Renato; Steele, Paul; Takizawa, Atsushi; Thornton, Brett F.; Tian, Hanqin; Tohjima, Yasunori; Viovy, Nicolas; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; van Weele, Michiel; van der Werf, Guido R.; Weiss, Ray; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Wilton, David J.; Wiltshire, Andy; Worthy, Doug; Wunch, Debra; Xu, Xiyan; Yoshida, Yukio; Zhang, Bowen; Zhang, Zhen; Zhu, Qiuan

2016-12-01

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (˜ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 540-568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (˜ 64 % of the global budget, < 30° N) as compared to mid (˜ 32 %, 30-60° N) and high northern latitudes (˜ 4 %, 60-90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (˜ 58 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 51-72, -14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH4 yr-1, range 73-108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

2012-09-01

Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

U.S. Air Force Bomber Sustainment and Modernization: Background and Issues for Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-23

the B-2’ s self- defense capabilities against U.S. Air Force Bomber Sustainment and Modernization: Issues for Congress...Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for the 21st Century Defense ; • the effectiveness and sustainability of the Air Force’s continuous...decisions considered by Congress, could have potential consequences for future national defense strategies and on U.S. long-range strike

Infrared absorption cross-sections, radiative efficiency and global warming potential of HFC-43-10mee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bris, Karine; DeZeeuw, Jasmine; Godin, Paul J.; Strong, Kimberly

2018-06-01

HFC-43-10mee (C5H2F10) is a substitute for CFC-113, HCFC-141b and methyl chloroform, as well as an alternative to perfluorocarbons with high radiative efficiencies. Recent observations have shown that the global mean tropospheric abundance of HFC-43-10mee has increased steadily from the 1990s to reach 0.211 ppt in 2012. To date, the emission of this compound is not regulated. The radiative efficiency (RE) of HFC-43-10mee has recently been re-evaluated at 0.42 W m-2 ppb-1, giving a 100-year time horizon global warming potential (GWP100) of 1650. However, the initial RE, from which the new values were derived, originated from an unpublished source. We calculated a new RE of 0.36 W m-2 ppb-1 and a GWP100 of 1410 from laboratory absorption cross-section spectra of a pure vapour of HFC-43-10mee. Acquisitions were performed in the 550-3500 cm-1 spectral range using Fourier transform spectroscopy. The results were compared with the broadened spectra from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) database and with theoretical calculations using density functional theory.

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-09-27

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.

On the Causes of Mid-Pliocene Warmth and Polar Amplification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lunt, Daniel J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Valdes, Paul J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Loptson, Claire A.

2012-01-01

The mid-Pliocene (approximately 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to approximately 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO2, lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO2. However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.

The future of oil supply

PubMed Central

Miller, Richard G.; Sorrell, Steven R.

2014-01-01

Abundant supplies of oil form the foundation of modern industrial economies, but the capacity to maintain and grow global supply is attracting increasing concern. Some commentators forecast a peak in the near future and a subsequent terminal decline in global oil production, while others highlight the recent growth in ‘tight oil’ production and the scope for developing unconventional resources. There are disagreements over the size, cost and recoverability of different resources, the technical and economic potential of different technologies, the contribution of different factors to market trends and the economic implications of reduced supply. Few debates are more important, more contentious, more wide-ranging or more confused. This paper summarizes the main concepts, terms, issues and evidence that are necessary to understand the ‘peak oil’ debate. These include: the origin, nature and classification of oil resources; the trends in oil production and discoveries; the typical production profiles of oil fields, basins and producing regions; the mechanisms underlying those profiles; the extent of depletion of conventional oil; the risk of an approaching peak in global production; and the potential of various mitigation options. The aim is to introduce the subject to non-specialist readers and provide a basis for the subsequent papers in this Theme Issue. PMID:24298085

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

PubMed Central

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-01-01

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified. PMID:20713397

Tapping the full potential of geodetic glacier change assessment with air and space borne sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemp, M.; Paul, F.; Machguth, H.; Fischer, M.

2016-12-01

Glacier changes are recognized as independent and high-confidence natural indicators of climate change. Past, current, and future glacier changes impact on global sea level, the regional water cycle, and local hazard situations. In the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, glacier mass budgets were reconciled by combining traditional observations (i.e. results from glaciological and geodetic measurements) with satellite altimetry and gravimetry to fill regional gaps and obtain global coverage. However, this approach is challenged by the relatively small number and inhomogeneous distribution of in-situ measurement series and their often unknown representativeness for the respective mountain range as well as by scale issues of current satellite altimetry (only point data) and gravimetry (coarse resolution) missions. In this presentation, we highlight the potential of air and space borne sensors for (i) validation and calibration of direct measurements using the glaciological method, (ii) assessing glacier volume changes over entire mountain ranges, and for (iii) determination of the representativeness of the field measurements for respective mountain ranges. Whereas long-term in-situ measurements provide the temporal variability of glacier mass changes with annual or seasonal resolution, differencing of high-resolution digital elevation models, such as from airborne (national) surveys or TanDEM-X, bear the potential to assess thickness and volume changes for thousands of individual glaciers over entire mountain ranges on a decadal time scale. In combination, the calibrated field measurements can be used to determine volume and mass changes over entire mountain ranges at high confidence. The spatial-temporal extrapolation can be supported using dense temporal series of snow cover evolution derived from optical satellite data such as Sentinel 2. Finally, these results can be used to reconcile satellite altimetry and gravimetry products. Provided that resources for corresponding glacier monitoring activities are made available (within or outside the scientific funding system), the combination of in-situ with air and space borne measurements will boost the scientific capacity to address the grand challenges from climate-induced glacier changes and related societal impacts.

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-06

Missiles Congressional Research Service Forward-Based Global Strike ( FBGS ...Congressional Research Service 36 Forward-Based Global Strike ( FBGS ) Analysts have also explored the option of deploying long-range land-based

Combining Inferential and Deductive Approaches to Estimate the Potential Geographical Range of the Invasive Plant Pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum

PubMed Central

Ireland, Kylie B.; Hardy, Giles E. St. J.; Kriticos, Darren J.

2013-01-01

Phytophthora ramorum, an invasive plant pathogen of unknown origin, causes considerable and widespread damage in plant industries and natural ecosystems of the USA and Europe. Estimating the potential geographical range of P. ramorum has been complicated by a lack of biological and geographical data with which to calibrate climatic models. Previous attempts to do so, using either invaded range data or surrogate species approaches, have delivered varying results. A simulation model was developed using CLIMEX to estimate the global climate suitability patterns for establishment of P. ramorum. Growth requirements and stress response parameters were derived from ecophysiological laboratory observations and site-level transmission and disease factors related to climate data in the field. Geographical distribution data from the USA (California and Oregon) and Norway were reserved from model-fitting and used to validate the models. The model suggests that the invasion of P. ramorum in both North America and Europe is still in its infancy and that it is presently occupying a small fraction of its potential range. Phytophthora ramorum appears to be climatically suited to large areas of Africa, Australasia and South America, where it could cause biodiversity and economic losses in plant industries and natural ecosystems with susceptible hosts if introduced. PMID:23667628

Arctic climate tipping points.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M

2012-02-01

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Insect-specific viruses and their potential impact on arbovirus transmission.

PubMed

Vasilakis, Nikos; Tesh, Robert B

2015-12-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are the causative agents of significant morbidity and mortality among humans and animals globally. In the past few years, the widespread adoption of next generation sequencing and metagenomics has led to a new era of virus discovery, where many novel viruses have been documented, exhibiting a restricted host-range in mosquitoes. They represent a wide-range of insect-specific viruses within the families of Bunyaviridae, Flaviviridae, Mesoniviridae, Reoviridae, Rhabdoviridae, Togaviridae, and the newly recognized taxon of Negeviruses. Collectively, their discovery has opened new vistas about the extent of viral diversity and evolution, their influence on vector competence and ability of their insect hosts to transmit human pathogens (e.g. arboviruses), and their potential development as biological control agents or novel vaccine platforms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flu, Floods, and Fire: Ethical Public Health Preparedness.

PubMed

Phelan, Alexandra L; Gostin, Lawrence O

2017-05-01

Even as public health ethics was developing as a field, major incidents such as 9/11 and the SARS epidemic propelled discourse around public health emergency preparedness and response. Policy and practice shifted to a multidisciplinary approach, recognizing the broad range of potential threats to public health, including biological, physical, radiological, and chemical threats. This propelled the development of surveillance systems to detect incidents, laboratory capacities to rapidly test for potential threats, and therapeutic and social countermeasures to prepare for and respond to a range of hazards. In bringing public health ethics and emergency preparedness together, Emergency Ethics: Public Health Preparedness and Response adds depth and complexity to both fields. As global threats continue to emerge, the book, edited by Bruce Jennings, John D. Arras, Drue H. Barrett, and Barbara A. Ellis, will offer a vital compass. © 2017 The Hastings Center.

Collisionless damping of flows in the TJ-II stellarator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, E.; Kleiber, R.; Hatzky, R.; Borchardt, M.; Monreal, P.; Castejón, F.; López-Fraguas, A.; Sáez, X.; Velasco, J. L.; Calvo, I.; Alonso, A.; López-Bruna, D.

2013-01-01

The results of global linear gyrokinetic simulations of residual flows carried out with the code EUTERPE in the TJ-II three-dimensional geometry are reported. The linear response of the plasma to potential perturbations homogeneous in a magnetic surface shows several oscillation frequencies: a Geodesic-acoustic-mode-like frequency, in qualitative agreement with the formula given by Sugama and Watanabe (2006 Plasma Phys. 72 825), and a much lower frequency oscillation in agreement with the predictions of Mishchenko et al (2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 072309) and Helander et al (2011 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 53 054006) for stellarators. The dependence of both oscillations on ion and electron temperatures and the magnetic configuration is studied. The low-frequency oscillations are in the frequency range supporting the long-range correlations between potential signals experimentally observed in TJ-II.

A theoretical investigation on optimal structures of ethane clusters (C2H6)n with n ≤ 25 and their building-up principle.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Hiroshi

2011-05-01

Geometry optimization of ethane clusters (C(2)H(6))(n) in the range of n ≤ 25 is carried out with a Morse potential. A heuristic method based on perturbations of geometries is used to locate global minima of the clusters. The following perturbations are carried out: (1) the molecule or group with the highest energy is moved to the interior of a cluster, (2) it is moved to stable positions on the surface of a cluster, and (3) orientations of one and two molecules are randomly modified. The geometry obtained after each perturbation is optimized by a quasi-Newton method. The global minimum of the dimer is consistent with that previously reported. The putative global minima of the clusters with 3 ≤ n ≤ 25 are first proposed and their building-up principle is discussed. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

ComprehensiveBench: a Benchmark for the Extensive Evaluation of Global Scheduling Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilla, Laércio L.; Bozzetti, Tiago C.; Castro, Márcio; Navaux, Philippe O. A.; Méhaut, Jean-François

2015-10-01

Parallel applications that present tasks with imbalanced loads or complex communication behavior usually do not exploit the underlying resources of parallel platforms to their full potential. In order to mitigate this issue, global scheduling algorithms are employed. As finding the optimal task distribution is an NP-Hard problem, identifying the most suitable algorithm for a specific scenario and comparing algorithms are not trivial tasks. In this context, this paper presents ComprehensiveBench, a benchmark for global scheduling algorithms that enables the variation of a vast range of parameters that affect performance. ComprehensiveBench can be used to assist in the development and evaluation of new scheduling algorithms, to help choose a specific algorithm for an arbitrary application, to emulate other applications, and to enable statistical tests. We illustrate its use in this paper with an evaluation of Charm++ periodic load balancers that stresses their characteristics.

Global time-size distribution of volcanic eruptions on Earth.

PubMed

Papale, Paolo

2018-05-01

Volcanic eruptions differ enormously in their size and impacts, ranging from quiet lava flow effusions along the volcano flanks to colossal events with the potential to affect our entire civilization. Knowledge of the time and size distribution of volcanic eruptions is of obvious relevance for understanding the dynamics and behavior of the Earth system, as well as for defining global volcanic risk. From the analysis of recent global databases of volcanic eruptions extending back to more than 2 million years, I show here that the return times of eruptions with similar magnitude follow an exponential distribution. The associated relative frequency of eruptions with different magnitude displays a power law, scale-invariant distribution over at least six orders of magnitude. These results suggest that similar mechanisms subtend to explosive eruptions from small to colossal, raising concerns on the theoretical possibility to predict the magnitude and impact of impending volcanic eruptions.

Kuwaiti oil fires—Modeling revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husain, Tahir

Just after the invasion of Kuwait, scientists began predictions on the environmental disaster due to threat by the Iraqi regime to blow out oil wells in the Kuwaiti oil fields. The findings with the speculations ranging from a nuclear winter to super-acid rain and global warming were presented in the World Climate Conference in Geneva in November 1990. Just before the war erupted in the middle of January 1991, a conference in London was called to discuss the potential risks to human life and ecological systems in case of blow out of oil fields. The scientists, using modeling techniques, raised the speculations about the global impact which, however, was discounted at a later stage. This paper presents an overview of the selected models used to assess the local, regional, and global impacts. The paper also highlights the model and data limitations and suggests future research directions to respond more effectively under emergency situations.

Global quasi-linearization (GQL) versus QSSA for a hydrogen-air auto-ignition problem.

PubMed

Yu, Chunkan; Bykov, Viatcheslav; Maas, Ulrich

2018-04-25

A recently developed automatic reduction method for systems of chemical kinetics, the so-called Global Quasi-Linearization (GQL) method, has been implemented to study and reduce the dimensions of a homogeneous combustion system. The results of application of the GQL and the Quasi-Steady State Assumption (QSSA) are compared. A number of drawbacks of the QSSA are discussed, i.e. the selection criteria of QSS-species and its sensitivity to system parameters, initial conditions, etc. To overcome these drawbacks, the GQL approach has been developed as a robust, automatic and scaling invariant method for a global analysis of the system timescale hierarchy and subsequent model reduction. In this work the auto-ignition problem of the hydrogen-air system is considered in a wide range of system parameters and initial conditions. The potential of the suggested approach to overcome most of the drawbacks of the standard approaches is illustrated.

Matching Social and Biophysical Scales in Extensive Livestock Production as a Basis for Adaptation to Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayre, N. F.; Bestelmeyer, B.

2015-12-01

Global livestock production is heterogeneous, and its benefits and costs vary widely across global contexts. Extensive grazing lands (or rangelands) constitute the vast majority of the land dedicated to livestock production globally, but they are relatively minor contributors to livestock-related environmental impacts. Indeed, the greatest potential for environmental damage in these lands lies in their potential for conversion to other uses, including agriculture, mining, energy production and urban development. Managing such conversion requires improving the sustainability of livestock production in the face of fragmentation, ecological and economic marginality and climate change. We present research from Mongolia and the United States demonstrating methods of improving outcomes on rangelands by improving the fit between the scales of social and biophysical processes. Especially in arid and semi-arid settings, rangelands exhibit highly variable productivity over space and time and non-linear or threshold dynamics in vegetation; climate change is projected to exacerbate these challenges and, in some cases, diminish overall productivity. Policy and governance frameworks that enable landscape-scale management and administration enable range livestock producers to adapt to these conditions. Similarly, livestock breeds that have evolved to withstand climate and vegetation change improve producers' prospects in the face of increasing variability and declining productivity. A focus on the relationships among primary production, animal production, spatial connectivity, and scale must underpin adaptation strategies in rangelands.

The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity.

PubMed

Kossin, James P; Emanuel, Kerry A; Vecchi, Gabriel A

2014-05-15

Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-13

Ballistic Missiles Congressional Research Service Forward-Based Global Strike ( FBGS ...missiles in the CPGS program. Forward-Based Global Strike ( FBGS ) Analysts have also explored the option of deploying long-range land-based ballistic

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Precise Orbit Determination Of Low Earth Satellites At AIUB Using GPS And SLR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaggi, A.; Bock, H.; Thaller, D.; Sosnica, K.; Meyer, U.; Baumann, C.; Dach, R.

2013-12-01

An ever increasing number of low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites is, or will be, equipped with retro-reflectors for Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and on-board receivers to collect observations from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Russian GLONASS and the European Galileo systems in the future. At the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) LEO precise orbit determination (POD) using either GPS or SLR data is performed for a wide range of applications for satellites at different altitudes. For this purpose the classical numerical integration techniques, as also used for dynamic orbit determination of satellites at high altitudes, are extended by pseudo-stochastic orbit modeling techniques to efficiently cope with potential force model deficiencies for satellites at low altitudes. Accuracies of better than 2 cm may be achieved by pseudo-stochastic orbit modeling for satellites at very low altitudes such as for the GPS-based POD of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE).

Conceptual design proposal: HUGO global range/mobility transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, Tom; Perretta, Dave; Mcbane, Doug; Morin, Greg; Thomas, Greg; Woodward, Joe; Gulakowski, Steve

1993-01-01

With the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the emergence of the United Nations actively pursuing a peace keeping role in world affairs, the United States has been forced into a position as the world's leading peace enforcer. It is still a very dangerous world with seemingly never ending ideological, territorial, and economic disputes requiring the U.S. to maintain a credible deterrent posture in this uncertain environment. This has created an urgent need to rapidly transport large numbers of troops and equipment from the continental United States (CONUS) to any potential world trouble spot by means of a global range/mobility transport aircraft. The most recent examples being Operation Desert Shield/Storm and Operation Restore Hope. To meet this challenge head-on, a request for proposal (RFP) was developed and incorporated into the 1992/1993 AIAA/McDonnell Douglas Corporation Graduate Team Aircraft Design Competition. The RFP calls for the conceptual design and justification of a large aircraft capable of power projecting a significant military force without surface transportation reliance.

A global range military transport: The ostrich

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aguiar, John; Booker, Cecilia; Hoffman, Eric; Kramar, James; Manahan, Orlando; Serranzana, Ray; Taylor, Mike

1993-01-01

Studies have shown that there is an increasing need for a global range transport capable of carrying large numbers of troops and equipment to potential trouble spots throughout the world. The Ostrich is a solution to this problem. The Ostrich is capable of carrying 800,000 pounds 6,500 n.m. and returning with 15 percent payload, without refueling. With a technology availability date in 2010 and an initial operating capability of 2015, the aircraft incorporates many advanced technologies including laminar flow control, composite primary structures, and a unique multibody design. By utilizing current technology, such as using McDonnell Douglas C-17 fuselage for the outer fuselages on the Ostrich, the cost for the aircraft was reduced. The cost of the Ostrich per aircraft is $1.2 billion with a direct operating cost of $56,000 per flight hour. The Ostrich will provide a valuable service as a logistical transport capable of rapidly projecting a significant military force or humanitarian aid anywhere in the world.

Microscopic optical model potential based on a Dirac Brueckner Hartree Fock approach and the relevant uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ruirui; Ma, Zhongyu; Muether, Herbert; van Dalen, E. N. E.; Liu, Tinjin; Zhang, Yue; Zhang, Zhi; Tian, Yuan

2017-09-01

A relativistic microscopic optical model potential, named CTOM, for nucleon-nucleus scattering is investigated in the framework of Dirac-Brueckner-Hartree-Fock approach. The microscopic feature of CTOM is guaranteed through rigorously adopting the isospin dependent DBHF calculation within the subtracted T matrix scheme. In order to verify its prediction power, a global study n, p+ A scattering are carried out. The predicted scattering observables coincide with experimental data within a good accuracy over a broad range of targets and a large region of energies only with two free items, namely the free-range factor t in the applied improved local density approximation and minor adjustments of the scalar and vector potentials in the low-density region. In addition, to estimate the uncertainty of the theoretical results, the deterministic simple least square approach is preliminarily employed to derive the covariance of predicted angular distributions, which is also briefly contained in this paper.

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin; Peregon, Anna; Ciais, Philippe; Canadell, Josep G.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Etiope, Giuseppe; Bastviken, David; Houweling, Sander;

78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-05

... Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming Potential Values for Certain... the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and analysis submitted in... global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them. We are also requesting comment on...

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

Global high-resolution simulations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide using CHASER V4.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiya, Takashi; Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Ogochi, Koji; Sudo, Kengo; Takigawa, Masayuki

2018-03-01

We evaluate global tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) simulations using the CHASER V4.0 global chemical transport model (CTM) at horizontal resolutions of 0.56, 1.1, and 2.8°. Model evaluation was conducted using satellite tropospheric NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and aircraft observations from the 2014 Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPÉ). Agreement against satellite retrievals improved greatly at 1.1 and 0.56° resolutions (compared to 2.8° resolution) over polluted and biomass burning regions. The 1.1° simulation generally captured the regional distribution of the tropospheric NO2 column well, whereas 0.56° resolution was necessary to improve the model performance over areas with strong local sources, with mean bias reductions of 67 % over Beijing and 73 % over San Francisco in summer. Validation using aircraft observations indicated that high-resolution simulations reduced negative NO2 biases below 700 hPa over the Denver metropolitan area. These improvements in high-resolution simulations were attributable to (1) closer spatial representativeness between simulations and observations and (2) better representation of large-scale concentration fields (i.e., at 2.8°) through the consideration of small-scale processes. Model evaluations conducted at 0.5 and 2.8° bin grids indicated that the contributions of both these processes were comparable over most polluted regions, whereas the latter effect (2) made a larger contribution over eastern China and biomass burning areas. The evaluations presented in this paper demonstrate the potential of using a high-resolution global CTM for studying megacity-scale air pollutants across the entire globe, potentially also contributing to global satellite retrievals and chemical data assimilation.

Global production, use, and emission volumes of short-chain chlorinated paraffins - A minimum scenario.

PubMed

Glüge, Juliane; Wang, Zhanyun; Bogdal, Christian; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2016-12-15

Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) show high persistence, bioaccumulation potential, and toxicity (PBT properties). Consequently, restrictions on production and use have been enforced in several countries/regions. The Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants recognized the PBT properties and long-range transport potential of SCCPs in 2015 and is now evaluating a possible global phase-out or restrictions. In this context, it is relevant to know which countries are producing/using SCCPs and in which amounts, and which applications contribute most to their environmental emissions. To provide a first comprehensive overview, we review and integrate all publicly available data on the global production and use of both chlorinated paraffins (CPs) as a whole and specifically SCCPs. Considerable amount of data on production/use of CPs and SCCPs are missing. Based on the available data and reported emission factors, we estimate the past and current worldwide SCCP emissions from individual applications. Using the available data as a minimum scenario, we conclude: (i) SCCP production and use is increasing, with the current worldwide production volume being 165,000t/year at least, whereas the global production of total CPs exceeds 1milliont/year. (ii) The worldwide release of SCCPs from their production and use to air, surface water, and soil between 1935 and 2012 has been in the range of 1690-41,400t, 1660-105,000t, and 9460-81,000t, respectively. (iii) The SCCP manufacture and use in PVC, the use in metal working applications and sealants/adhesives, and the use in plastics and rubber contribute most to the emissions to air, surface water, and soil. Thus, the decrease in the environmental emissions of SCCPs requires reduction of SCCP use in (almost) all applications. (iv) Emissions due to the disposal of waste SCCPs cannot be accurately estimated, because relevant information is missing. Instead, we conduct a scenario analysis to provide some insights into it. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shifting Environmental Ranges and Biome Potential According to the Whittaker Relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, R.; Garonna, I.; Schaepman, M. E.

2015-12-01

Robert H. Whittaker classified biome types mainly as a function of Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP), resulting in the well-known Whittaker plot1. This relationship is still being used to map biomes globally2. The same inputs (MAT and MAP), augmented with a radiation proxy, are used in the resource-balance perspective for modeling large-scale vegetation productivity as a function of abiotic factors3. These two approaches, used in a temporally dynamic manner, provided us indicators of shifts in growth-limiting factors4 and associated environmental ranges of vegetation, which, in turn, are key indicators for the study of global change and biodiversity5. We present a study in which we used the Whittaker relationship and CRU TS 3.22 climatic data to map regions that showed variable biome potential. These regions are likely to indicate ecotones - i.e. interactions zones between biomes - that have been subject to abiotic change and where a change in the vegetation system can be anticipated. At the same time, we used remotely sensed data (GIMMS v3g 1982-2012) to study gradients in vegetation dynamics in these zones. Preliminary results show strongest environmental shifts in northern ecotones, e.g. on the tundra - boreal boundary, and associated changes in climatic growth-limiting factors4. [1] Whittaker RH (1975) Communities and Ecosystems, Macmillan, 385p.[2] Ricklefs RE (2008) The Economy of Nature, W. H. Freeman, 620p.[3] Field CB, Randerson JT, Malmström CM (1995) Global net primary production: Combining ecology and remote sensing. Remote Sensing of Environment, 51, 74-88.[4] Schenkel D, Garonna I, De Jong R, Schaepman ME (this conference) Linking Land Surface Phenology and Growth Limiting Factor Shifts over the Past 30 Years.[5] University of Zurich Research Priority Program on Global Change and Biodiversity, http://www.gcb.uzh.ch

Compilation of 3D global conductivity model of the Earth for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Dmitry; Kuvshinov, Alexey; Palshin, Nikolay

2015-07-01

We have compiled a global three-dimensional (3D) conductivity model of the Earth with an ultimate goal to be used for realistic simulation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), posing a potential threat to man-made electric systems. Bearing in mind the intrinsic frequency range of the most intense disturbances (magnetospheric substorms) with typical periods ranging from a few minutes to a few hours, the compiled 3D model represents the structure in depth range of 0-100 km, including seawater, sediments, earth crust, and partly the lithosphere/asthenosphere. More explicitly, the model consists of a series of spherical layers, whose vertical and lateral boundaries are established based on available data. To compile a model, global maps of bathymetry, sediment thickness, and upper and lower crust thicknesses as well as lithosphere thickness are utilized. All maps are re-interpolated on a common grid of 0.25×0.25 degree lateral spacing. Once the geometry of different structures is specified, each element of the structure is assigned either a certain conductivity value or conductivity versus depth distribution, according to available laboratory data and conversion laws. A numerical formalism developed for compilation of the model, allows for its further refinement by incorporation of regional 3D conductivity distributions inferred from the real electromagnetic data. So far we included into our model four regional conductivity models, available from recent publications, namely, surface conductance model of Russia, and 3D conductivity models of Fennoscandia, Australia, and northwest of the United States.

Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40 average surface air temperature (with temperature ranges adjusted to a station-based climatology). In the retrospective forecasting mode, VIC is driven by global NCEP ensemble 15-day reforecasts provided by Tom Hamill (NOAA/ERL), bias corrected with respect to the adjusted ERA40 data and further downscaled spatially using higher spatial resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1dd daily precipitation. Downward solar and longwave radiation, surface relative humidity, and other model forcings are derived from relationships with the daily temperature range during both the retrospective (spinup) and forecast period. The initial system is implemented globally at one-half degree spatial resolution. We evaluate model performance retrospectively for predictions of major floods for the Oder River in 1997, the Mekong River in 2000 and the Limpopo River in 2000.

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

PubMed Central

Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

2013-01-01

Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

Progress on the biomarkers for tuberculosis diagnosis.

PubMed

Fu, Tiwei; Xie, Jianping

2011-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat to global health. Biomarkers derived from pathogen-host interaction can facilitate the monitoring of active TB. The recent progress regarding such biomarkers is summarized, including those can be used from serum, sputum, urine, or breath monitoring. A wide range of potential biomarkers such as protein antigens, cell-free nucleic acids, and lipoarabinomannose were compiled. The possible use of biomarkers for infection identification and monitoring drug efficacy are also presented.

Advances in understanding, models and parameterisations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flechard, C. R.; Massad, R.-S.; Loubet, B.; Personne, E.; Simpson, D.; Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Sutton, M. A.

2013-03-01

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr), while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+) to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal) and space (patchwork landscapes). The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ). Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of air-borne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphereem NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi-chemical species schemes. Their level of complexity depends on their purpose, the spatial scale at which they are applied, the current level of parameterisation, and the availability of the input data they require. State-of-the-art solutions for determining the emission/sink Γ potentials through the soil/canopy system include coupled, interactive chemical transport models (CTM) and soil/ecosystem modelling at the regional scale. However, it remains a matter for debate to what extent realistic options for future regional and global models should be based on process-based mechanistic versus empirical and regression-type models. Further discussion is needed on the extent and timescale by which new approaches can be used, such as integration with ecosystem models and satellite observations.

Advances in understanding, models and parameterizations of biosphere-atmosphere ammonia exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flechard, C. R.; Massad, R.-S.; Loubet, B.; Personne, E.; Simpson, D.; Bash, J. O.; Cooter, E. J.; Nemitz, E.; Sutton, M. A.

2013-07-01

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) dominates global emissions of total reactive nitrogen (Nr), while emissions from agricultural production systems contribute about two-thirds of global NH3 emissions; the remaining third emanates from oceans, natural vegetation, humans, wild animals and biomass burning. On land, NH3 emitted from the various sources eventually returns to the biosphere by dry deposition to sink areas, predominantly semi-natural vegetation, and by wet and dry deposition as ammonium (NH4+) to all surfaces. However, the land/atmosphere exchange of gaseous NH3 is in fact bi-directional over unfertilized as well as fertilized ecosystems, with periods and areas of emission and deposition alternating in time (diurnal, seasonal) and space (patchwork landscapes). The exchange is controlled by a range of environmental factors, including meteorology, surface layer turbulence, thermodynamics, air and surface heterogeneous-phase chemistry, canopy geometry, plant development stage, leaf age, organic matter decomposition, soil microbial turnover, and, in agricultural systems, by fertilizer application rate, fertilizer type, soil type, crop type, and agricultural management practices. We review the range of processes controlling NH3 emission and uptake in the different parts of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, with NH3 emission potentials defined at the substrate and leaf levels by different [NH4+] / [H+] ratios (Γ). Surface/atmosphere exchange models for NH3 are necessary to compute the temporal and spatial patterns of emissions and deposition at the soil, plant, field, landscape, regional and global scales, in order to assess the multiple environmental impacts of airborne and deposited NH3 and NH4+. Models of soil/vegetation/atmosphere NH3 exchange are reviewed from the substrate and leaf scales to the global scale. They range from simple steady-state, "big leaf" canopy resistance models, to dynamic, multi-layer, multi-process, multi-chemical species schemes. Their level of complexity depends on their purpose, the spatial scale at which they are applied, the current level of parameterization, and the availability of the input data they require. State-of-the-art solutions for determining the emission/sink Γ potentials through the soil/canopy system include coupled, interactive chemical transport models (CTM) and soil/ecosystem modelling at the regional scale. However, it remains a matter for debate to what extent realistic options for future regional and global models should be based on process-based mechanistic versus empirical and regression-type models. Further discussion is needed on the extent and timescale by which new approaches can be used, such as integration with ecosystem models and satellite observations.

Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism.

PubMed

Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Di Minin, Enrico; Kukkala, Aija S; Kullberg, Peter; Kuusterä, Johanna; Lehtomäki, Joona; Tenkanen, Henrikki; Verburg, Peter H; Moilanen, Atte

2014-12-18

Protected areas are one of the main tools for halting the continuing global biodiversity crisis caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and other anthropogenic pressures. According to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the protected area network should be expanded to at least 17% of the terrestrial world by 2020 (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). To maximize conservation outcomes, it is crucial to identify the best expansion areas. Here we show that there is a very high potential to increase protection of ecoregions and vertebrate species by expanding the protected area network, but also identify considerable risk of ineffective outcomes due to land-use change and uncoordinated actions between countries. We use distribution data for 24,757 terrestrial vertebrates assessed under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 'red list of threatened species', and terrestrial ecoregions (827), modified by land-use models for the present and 2040, and introduce techniques for global and balanced spatial conservation prioritization. First, we show that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple. Second, if projected land-use change by 2040 (ref. 11) takes place, it becomes infeasible to reach the currently possible protection levels, and over 1,000 threatened species would lose more than 50% of their present effective ranges worldwide. Third, we demonstrate a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities. Strong evidence is shown that further biodiversity loss is unavoidable unless international action is quickly taken to balance land-use and biodiversity conservation. The approach used here can serve as a framework for repeatable and quantitative assessment of efficiency, gaps and expansion of the global protected area network globally, regionally and nationally, considering current and projected land-use pressures.

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

DOE PAGES

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; ...

2017-02-17

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable.We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performancemore » in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. Furthermore, the maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.« less

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable.We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performancemore » in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. Furthermore, the maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.« less

Spread of the Tiger: Global Risk of Invasion by the Mosquito Aedes albopictus

PubMed Central

BENEDICT, MARK Q.; LEVINE, REBECCA S.; HAWLEY, WILLIAM A.; LOUNIBOS, L. PHILIP

2008-01-01

Aedes albopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of eggs via the international trade in used tires. We use a genetic algorithm, Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP), to determine the ecological niche of Ae. albopictus and predict a global ecological risk map for the continued spread of the species. We combine this analysis with risk due to importation of tires from infested countries and their proximity to countries that have already been invaded to develop a list of countries most at risk for future introductions and establishments. Methods used here have potential for predicting risks of future invasions of vectors or pathogens. PMID:17417960

Climate Variability, Climate Change and Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glantz, Michael H.

2005-08-01

As we approach the end of the twentieth century, public and scientific attention is focusing increasingly on the detection and assessment of changes in our environment. This unique volume addresses the potential implications of global warming for fisheries and the societies which depend on them. Using a æforecasting by analogy' approach, which draws upon experiences from the recent past in coping with regional fluctuations in the abundance or availability of living marine resources, it is shown how we might be able to assess our ability to respond to the consequences of future environmental changes induced by a potential global warming. The book takes the form of a series of integrated case studies from around the globe, which are presented by an interdisciplinary group of leading researchers. This important and thought-provoking volume will be of interest to a wide range of scientists working in the fields of biology, marine and environmental science, climatology, economics and anthropology, as well as resource managers and policy makers concerned with the health and future of living marine resources.

Master of all trades: thermal acclimation and adaptation of cardiac function in a broadly distributed marine invasive species, the European green crab, Carcinus maenas.

PubMed

Tepolt, Carolyn K; Somero, George N

2014-04-01

As global warming accelerates, there is increasing concern about how ecosystems may change as a result of species loss and replacement. Here, we examined the thermal physiology of the European green crab (Carcinus maenas Linnaeus 1758), a globally invasive species, along three parallel thermal gradients in its native and invasive ranges. At each site, we assessed cardiac physiology to determine heat and cold tolerance and acclimatory plasticity. We found that, overall, the species is highly tolerant of both heat and cold, and that it survives higher temperatures than co-occurring native marine crustaceans. Further, we found that both heat and cold tolerance are plastic in response to short-term acclimation (18-31 days at either 5 or 25°C). Comparing patterns within ranges, we found latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance in the native European range and in the invasive range in eastern North America. This pattern is strongest in the native range, and likely evolved there. Because of a complicated invasion history, the latitudinal pattern in the eastern North American invasive range may be due either to rapid adaptation post-invasion or to adaptive differences between the ancestral populations that founded the invasion. Overall, the broad thermal tolerance ranges of green crabs, which may facilitate invasion of novel habitats, derive from high inherent eurythermality and acclimatory plasticity and potentially adaptive differentiation among populations. The highly flexible physiology that results from these capacities may represent the hallmark of a successful invasive species, and may provide a model for success in a changing world.

78 FR 21871 - Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Revision of the Venting Prohibition for Specific Refrigerant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-12

... Register GWP--Global warming potential HCFC-22--the chemical chlorodifluoromethane, CAS Reg No. 75-45-6... global warming potential. Second, EPA determines whether and to what extent such venting, release, or... discussed four types of environmental risks: ozone depletion potential, global warming potential, volatile...

Predicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions - a global meta-study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, Chinchu; Western, Andrew W.; Wei, Yongping; Saft, Margarita

2018-05-01

Groundwater recharge is one of the important factors determining the groundwater development potential of an area. Even though recharge plays a key role in controlling groundwater system dynamics, much uncertainty remains regarding the relationships between groundwater recharge and its governing factors at a large scale. Therefore, this study aims to identify the most influential factors of groundwater recharge, and to develop an empirical model to estimate diffuse rainfall recharge at a global scale. Recharge estimates reported in the literature from various parts of the world (715 sites) were compiled and used in model building and testing exercises. Unlike conventional recharge estimates from water balance, this study used a multimodel inference approach and information theory to explain the relationship between groundwater recharge and influential factors, and to predict groundwater recharge at 0.5° resolution. The results show that meteorological factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and vegetation factors (land use and land cover) had the most predictive power for recharge. According to the model, long-term global average annual recharge (1981-2014) was 134 mm yr-1 with a prediction error ranging from -8 to 10 mm yr-1 for 97.2 % of cases. The recharge estimates presented in this study are unique and more reliable than the existing global groundwater recharge estimates because of the extensive validation carried out using both independent local estimates collated from the literature and national statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In a water-scarce future driven by increased anthropogenic development, the results from this study will aid in making informed decisions about groundwater potential at a large scale.

Methane hydrate - A major reservoir of carbon in the shallow geosphere?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kvenvolden, K.A.

1988-01-01

Methane hydrates are solids composed of rigid cages of water molecules that enclose methane. Sediment containing methane hydrates is found within specific pressure-temperature conditions that occur in regions of permafrost and beneath the sea in outer continental margins. Because methane hydrates are globally widespread and concentrate methane within the gas-hydrate structure, the potential amount of methane present in the shallow geosphere at subsurface depths of < ???2000 m is very large. However, estimates of the amount are speculative and range over about three orders of magnitude, from 2 ?? 103 to 4 ?? 106 Gt (gigatons = 1015 g) of carbon, depending on the assumptions made. The estimate I favor is ??? 1 ?? 104 Gt of carbon. The estimated amount of organic carbon in the methane-hydrate reservoir greatly exceeds that in many other reservoirs of the global carbon cycle - for example, the atmosphere (3.6 Gt); terrestrial biota (830 Gt); terrestrial soil, detritus and peat (1960 Gt); marine biota (3 Gt); and marine dissolved materials (980 Gt). In fact, the amount of carbon may exceed that in all fossil fuel deposits (5 ?? 103 Gt). Because methane hydrates contain so much methane and occur in the shallow geosphere, they are of interest as a potential resource of natural gas and as a possible source of atmospheric methane released by global warming. As a potential resource, methane hydrates pose both engineering and production problems. As a contributor to a changing global climate, destabilized methane hydrates, particularly those in shallow, nearshore regions of the Arctic Ocean, may have some effect, but this effect will probably be minimal, at least during the next 100 years. ?? 1988.

Use of a latitudinal gradient in bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) production to examine physiological controls of biotic boundaries and potential responses to environment change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, B.A.; McKee, K.L.

2004-01-01

Aim: Predictions of vegetation change with global warming require models that accurately reflect physiological processes underlying growth limitations and species distributions. However, information about environmental controls on physiology and consequent effects on species boundaries and ecosystem functions such as production is limited, especially for forested wetlands that are potentially important carbon sinks. Location: The bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) region of the south-eastern United States was studied to examine how production of an important forested wetland varies with latitude and temperature as well as local hydrology. Methods: We used published data to analyse litter production across a latitudinal gradient from 26.2 to 37.8?? N to determine how bald cypress swamps might respond to alternate climate conditions and what changes might occur throughout the distributional range. Results: Litterfall rates followed a bell shaped curve, indicating that production was more limited at the distributional boundaries (c. 225 g/m2 year-1) compared to the mid-range (795-1126 g/m2 year-1). This pattern suggests that conditions are sub-optimal near both boundaries and that the absence of populations outside this latitudinal range may be largely due to physiological constraints on the carbon balance of dominant species. While dispersal limitations cannot be totally discounted, competition with other wetland types at the extremes of the range does not seem likely to be important because the relative basal area of bald cypress does not decrease near the edges of the range. Impaired hydrology depressed production across the entire range, but more in the south than the north. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest that (1) physiological limitations constrain biotic boundaries of bald cypress swamps; (2) future changes in global temperature would affect litter production in a nonlinear manner across the distributional range; (3) local changes in hydrology may interact with climate to further reduce litter production, particularly at lower latitudes; and (4) southernmost forests could be extirpated if environmental conditions compromise carbon balance and water-use efficiency of trees. ?? 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Scenarios and US National Climate Assessments: Where have they been and where could they go?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2015-12-01

U.S. National Climate Assessments (NCA), conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, analyze the effects of global change on the United States and examine current and projected changes out to 100 years. Scenarios of global change have been incorporated in all NCAs to date, although such scenarios have typically been developed late in the assessment cycle, limiting the depth of their use in regional and sectoral assessments. This lack of use is particularly notable for scenarios focused on aspects other than climate and associated projections of temperature and precipitation. Here, we review how scenarios have been incorporated in previous NCAs and present potential options for both the development and inclusion of a wider range of scenarios topics in future quadrennial NCA reports and other sustained assessment activities within USGCRP and federal agencies. Incorporating a broad range of U.S. scenarios will present both intellectual and programmatic challenges, as scenario developers from relatively disparate communities will need to come together to create internally consistent assumptions within each type of scenario (e.g. climate, land cover and land use, population) for sub-national scales. As USGCRP moves forward with a sustained assessment process, a richer set of scenarios can serve as a bridge between the research community, decision makers, and practitioners.

Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer to Study Typhoon, Tropical Hydrologic Balance and El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy

1995-01-01

The high spatial resolution and global coverage of a spaceborne microwave scatterometer make it a power instrument to study phenomena ranging from typhoon to El Nino Southern Oscillation which have regional and short term economic and ecological impacts as well as effects on long term and global climate changes. In this report, the application of scatterometer data, by itself, to study the intensity and the evolution of typhoon is demonstrated. The potential of combining wind vector and precipitable water derived from two spaceborne sensors to study the hydrologic balance in the tropics is discussed. The role of westerly wind bursts as a precursor of anomalous warming in the equatorial Pacific is investigated with coincident data from microwave scatterometer, altimeter and radiometer.

Using CYGNSS to Observe Convectively Driven Near-Surface Winds in Tropical Precipitation Systems During Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Timothy J.; Li, Xuanli; Mecikalski, John; Hoover, Kacie; Castillo, Tyler; Chronis, Themis

2017-01-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation OKLMA 1411 UTC Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that launched 15 December 2016. The primary objective of CYGNSS is to use bistatic Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to accurately measure near-surface wind speeds within the heavily raining inner core of tropical cyclones. CYGNSS also features rapid revisit times over a given region in the tropics - ranging from several minutes to a few hours, depending on the constellation geometry at that time. Despite the focus on tropical cyclones, the ability of CYGNSS to provide rapid updates of winds, unbiased by the presence of precipitation, has many other potential applications related to general tropical convection.

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.1634 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

1998-01-01

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

Classical and quantum filaments in the ground state of trapped dipolar Bose gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cinti, Fabio; Boninsegni, Massimo

2017-07-01

We study, by quantum Monte Carlo simulations, the ground state of a harmonically confined dipolar Bose gas with aligned dipole moments and with the inclusion of a repulsive two-body potential of varying range. Two different limits can clearly be identified, namely, a classical one in which the attractive part of the dipolar interaction dominates and the system forms an ordered array of parallel filaments and a quantum-mechanical one, wherein filaments are destabilized by zero-point motion, and eventually the ground state becomes a uniform cloud. The physical character of the system smoothly evolves from classical to quantum mechanical as the range of the repulsive two-body potential increases. An intermediate regime is observed in which ordered filaments are still present, albeit forming different structures from the ones predicted classically; quantum-mechanical exchanges of indistinguishable particles across different filaments allow phase coherence to be established, underlying a global superfluid response.

Recent developments and future directions in the monitoring of terrestrial sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guanter, L.

2017-12-01

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is an electromagnetic signal emitted by the chlorophyll-a of assimilating plants in the 650-850 nm spectral range. The SIF emission has a mechanistic link to photosynthesis and responds instantaneously to perturbations in environmental conditions such as light and water stress, which makes it a powerful proxy for plants' photosynthetic activity. Global measurements of SIF from space have been available since late 2011 from four different atmospheric satellite missions (chronologically, GOSAT, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OCO-2). The potential of the derived SIF data sets to represent the photosynthetic activity of different ecosystems, including large crop belts worldwide, the Amazon rainforest and boreal evergreen forests has been demonstrated in the relatively short life-time of global SIF data. Despite the demonstrated potential of SIF data as a proxy for global terrestrial gross primary production, current observations are partly hampered by a coarse spatial resolution or the lack of spatial coverage. For this reason, great expectations are put on the upcoming TROPOMI instrument onboard the Copernicus' Sentinel 5-Precursor mission to be launched by mid-end of 2017. TROPOMI will provide daily global coverage with a spatial resolution between 3 and 7 km and continuous spectral coverage of the visible and near-infrared part of the spectrum. The recent selection of FLEX as the ESA Earth Explorer 8 to be launched around 2022 and several upcoming geostationary missions (TEMPO, Sentinel-4 and GeoCARB, covering Europe and the Americas) with potential for SIF retrievals complete an exciting near-future scenario for the monitoring of SIF from space. In this contribution, we will provide an overview of recent developments in the global monitoring of SIF and will introduce the near-future observational scenario with especial emphasis on TROPOMI and the geostationary missions to be launched in the coming years.

The importance of fungi and mycology for addressing major global challenges*.

PubMed

Lange, Lene

2014-12-01

In the new bioeconomy, fungi play a very important role in addressing major global challenges, being instrumental for improved resource efficiency, making renewable substitutes for products from fossil resources, upgrading waste streams to valuable food and feed ingredients, counteracting life-style diseases and antibiotic resistance through strengthening the gut biota, making crop plants more robust to survive climate change conditions, and functioning as host organisms for production of new biological drugs. This range of new uses of fungi all stand on the shoulders of the efforts of mycologists over generations: the scientific discipline mycology has built comprehensive understanding within fungal biodiversity, classification, evolution, genetics, physiology, ecology, pathogenesis, and nutrition. Applied mycology could not make progress without this platform. To unfold the full potentials of what fungi can do for both environment and man we need to strengthen the field of mycology on a global scale. The current mission statement gives an overview of where we are, what needs to be done, what obstacles to overcome, and which potentials are within reach. It further provides a vision for how mycology can be strengthened: The time is right to make the world aware of the immense importance of fungi and mycology for sustainable global development, where land, water and biological materials are used in a more efficient and more sustainable manner. This is an opportunity for profiling mycology by narrating the role played by fungi in the bioeconomy. Greater awareness and appreciation of the role of fungi can be used to build support for mycology around the world. Support will attract more talent to our field of study, empower mycologists around the world to generate more funds for necessary basic research, and strengthen the global mycology network. The use of fungi for unlocking the full potentials of the bioeconomy relies on such progress. The fungal kingdom can be an inspiration for even more.

Thermal Rate Coefficients and Kinetic Isotope Effects for the Reaction OH + CH4 → H2O + CH3 on an ab Initio-Based Potential Energy Surface.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Guo, Hua

2018-03-15

Thermal rate coefficients for the title reaction and its various isotopologues are computed using a tunneling-corrected transition-state theory on a global potential energy surface recently developed by fitting a large number of high-level ab initio points. The calculated rate coefficients are found to agree well with the measured ones in a wide temperature range, validating the accuracy of the potential energy surface. Strong non-Arrhenius effects are found at low temperatures. In addition, the calculations reproduced the primary and secondary kinetic isotope effects. These results confirm the strong influence of tunneling to this heavy-light-heavy hydrogen abstraction reaction.

System and method for generating and/or screening potential metal-organic frameworks

DOEpatents

Wilmer, Christopher E; Leaf, Michael; Snurr, Randall Q; Farha, Omar K; Hupp, Joseph T

2015-04-21

A system and method for systematically generating potential metal-organic framework (MOFs) structures given an input library of building blocks is provided herein. One or more material properties of the potential MOFs are evaluated using computational simulations. A range of material properties (surface area, pore volume, pore size distribution, powder x-ray diffraction pattern, methane adsorption capability, and the like) can be estimated, and in doing so, illuminate unidentified structure-property relationships that may only have been recognized by taking a global view of MOF structures. In addition to identifying structure-property relationships, this systematic approach to identify the MOFs of interest is used to identify one or more MOFs that may be useful for high pressure methane storage.

System and method for generating and/or screening potential metal-organic frameworks

DOEpatents

Wilmer, Christopher E; Leaf, Michael; Snurr, Randall Q; Farha, Omar K; Hupp, Joseph T

2014-12-02

A system and method for systematically generating potential metal-organic framework (MOFs) structures given an input library of building blocks is provided herein. One or more material properties of the potential MOFs are evaluated using computational simulations. A range of material properties (surface area, pore volume, pore size distribution, powder x-ray diffraction pattern, methane adsorption capability, and the like) can be estimated, and in doing so, illuminate unidentified structure-property relationships that may only have been recognized by taking a global view of MOF structures. In addition to identifying structure-property relationships, this systematic approach to identify the MOFs of interest is used to identify one or more MOFs that may be useful for high pressure methane storage.

Neutron Spectroscopic Factors from Transfer Reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jenny; Tsang, M. B.

2007-05-01

We have extracted the ground state to ground state neutron spectroscopic factors for 80 nuclei ranging in Z from 3 to 24 by analyzing the past measurements of the angular distributions from (d,p) and (p,d) reactions. We demonstrate an approach that provides systematic and consistent values with a minimum of assumptions. A three-body model with global optical potentials and standard geometry of n-potential is applied. For the 60 nuclei where modern shell model calculations are available, such analysis reproduces, to within 20%, the experimental spectroscopic factors for most nuclei. If we constraint the nucleon-target optical potential and the geometries of the bound neutron-wave function with the modern Hartree-Fock calculations, our deduced neutron spectroscopic factors are reduced by 30% on average.

A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

PubMed Central

Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

2016-01-01

Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994–2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure. PMID:27874852

A global gas flaring black carbon emission rate dataset from 1994 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Kan; Fu, Joshua S.

2016-11-01

Global flaring of associated petroleum gas is a potential emission source of particulate matters (PM) and could be notable in some specific regions that are in urgent need of mitigation. PM emitted from gas flaring is mainly in the form of black carbon (BC), which is a strong short-lived climate forcer. However, BC from gas flaring has been neglected in most global/regional emission inventories and is rarely considered in climate modeling. Here we present a global gas flaring BC emission rate dataset for the period 1994-2012 in a machine-readable format. We develop a region-dependent gas flaring BC emission factor database based on the chemical compositions of associated petroleum gas at various oil fields. Gas flaring BC emission rates are estimated using this emission factor database and flaring volumes retrieved from satellite imagery. Evaluation using a chemical transport model suggests that consideration of gas flaring emissions can improve model performance. This dataset will benefit and inform a broad range of research topics, e.g., carbon budget, air quality/climate modeling, and environmental/human exposure.

Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health.

PubMed

Miller, Eric; Sikes, Hadley D

Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs.

Addressing Barriers to the Development and Adoption of Rapid Diagnostic Tests in Global Health

PubMed Central

Miller, Eric; Sikes, Hadley D.

2015-01-01

Immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have demonstrated significant potential for use as point-of-care diagnostic tests in resource-limited settings. Most notably, RDTs for malaria have reached an unparalleled level of technological maturity and market penetration, and are now considered an important complement to standard microscopic methods of malaria diagnosis. However, the technical development of RDTs for other infectious diseases, and their uptake within the global health community as a core diagnostic modality, has been hindered by a number of extant challenges. These range from technical and biological issues, such as the need for better affinity agents and biomarkers of disease, to social, infrastructural, regulatory and economic barriers, which have all served to slow their adoption and diminish their impact. In order for the immunochromatographic RDT format to be successfully adapted to other disease targets, to see widespread distribution, and to improve clinical outcomes for patients on a global scale, these challenges must be identified and addressed, and the global health community must be engaged in championing the broader use of RDTs. PMID:26594252

A global 2007-2015 spaceborne sun-induced vegetation fluorescence time series evaluated with Australian flux tower observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraeten, Willem W.; Sanders, Abram F. J.; Kooreman, Maurits L.; van Leth, Thomas C.; Beringer, Jason; Joiner, Joanna; Delcloo, Andy

2017-04-01

The Gross Primary Production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key quantity in the understanding of the global carbon cycle. GPP is the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed through the process of plant photosynthesis and it represents the largest ecosystem gross flux of CO2 between the atmosphere and the Earth surface. To date, monitoring of GPP has not been possible at scales beyond that of a single agricultural field or natural ecosystem. At those scales, networks of eddy-covariance towers provide a platform to measure Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon at high temporal resolution, although with only sparse spatial coverage. Satellite observations can bridge that gap by providing the spatial distributions and changes over time of vegetation-related spectral indices. These "greenness indicators", however, tend to return the potential carbon uptake by plants rather than the actual uptake since short term environmental changes affecting plant productivity (e.g., water availability, temperature, nutrient deficiency, diseases) are not well captured. Sun-induced plant fluorescence (SiF), however, is tightly related to photosynthetic activity in the red and near-infrared wavelength range, and SiF can be retrieved from spaceborne measurements from sensors with good signal-to-noise ratios and fine spectral resolutions. We use optical data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2A) satellite sensor to infer terrestrial fluorescence from space. The spectral signatures of atmospheric absorption, surface reflectance, and fluorescence radiance are disentangled using reference hyperspectral data of non-fluorescence surfaces (desserts) to solve for the atmospheric absorption. An empirically based principal component analysis (PCA) approach was applied. Here we show a global 2007-2015 times series of sun-induced vegetation fluorescence derived from GOME-2A observations which we have compared with GPP data derived from twelve Net Ecosystem Exchange flux tower measurements in Australia. Correlations for individual towers range from 0.37 to 0.84. They are particularly high for managed biome types. Furthermore, we show that deseasonalized Australian SiF time series are able to clearly indicate the break of the Millennium Drought during the local summer of 2010/2011. It illustrates the strong potential of SiF data to monitor vegetation activity in relation with meteorological anomalies which may have impact on the ecosystem carbon budget and thus affect our climate at the long range.

Current and Future Environmental Balance of Small-Scale Run-of-River Hydropower.

PubMed

Gallagher, John; Styles, David; McNabola, Aonghus; Williams, A Prysor

2015-05-19

Globally, the hydropower (HP) sector has significant potential to increase its capacity by 2050. This study quantifies the energy and resource demands of small-scale HP projects and presents methods to reduce associated environmental impacts based on potential growth in the sector. The environmental burdens of three (50-650 kW) run-of-river HP projects were calculated using life cycle assessment (LCA). The global warming potential (GWP) for the projects to generate electricity ranged from 5.5-8.9 g CO2 eq/kWh, compared with 403 g CO2 eq/kWh for UK marginal grid electricity. A sensitivity analysis accounted for alternative manufacturing processes, transportation, ecodesign considerations, and extended project lifespan. These findings were extrapolated for technically viable HP sites in Europe, with the potential to generate 7.35 TWh and offset over 2.96 Mt of CO2 from grid electricity per annum. Incorporation of ecodesign could provide resource savings for these HP projects: avoiding 800 000 tonnes of concrete, 10 000 tonnes of steel, and 65 million vehicle miles. Small additional material and energy contributions can double a HP system lifespan, providing 39-47% reductions for all environmental impact categories. In a world of finite resources, this paper highlights the importance of HP as a resource-efficient, renewable energy system.

A Novel Scenario-Based Interview Tool to Evaluate Nontechnical Skills and Competencies in Global Health Delivery.

PubMed

Wroe, Emily B; McBain, Ryan K; Michaelis, Annie; Dunbar, Elizabeth L; Hirschhorn, Lisa R; Cancedda, Corrado

2017-08-01

Despite rapid growth in the number of physicians and academic institutions entering the field of global health, there are few tools that inform global health curricula and assess physician readiness for this field. To address this gap, we describe the development and pilot testing of a new tool to assess nontechnical competencies and values in global health. Competencies assessed include systems-based practice, interpersonal and cross-cultural communication, professionalism and self-care, patient care, mentoring, teaching, management, and personal motivation and experience. The Global Health Delivery Competency Assessment Tool presents 15 case vignettes and open-ended questions related to situations a global health practitioner might encounter, and grades the quality of responses on a 6-point ordinal scale. We interviewed 17 of 18 possible global health residents (94%), matched with 17 residents not training in global health, for a total of 34 interviews. A second reviewer independently scored recordings of 13 interviews for reliability. Pilot testing indicated a high degree of discriminant validity, as measured by the instrument's ability to distinguish between residents who were and were not enrolled in a global health program ( P  < .001). It also demonstrated acceptable consistency, as assessed by interrater reliability (κ = 0.53), with a range of item-level agreement from 84%-96%. The tool has potential applicability to a variety of academic and programmatic activities, including evaluation of candidates for global health positions and evaluating the success of training programs in equipping practitioners for entry into this field.

Global Invasion of Lantana camara: Has the Climatic Niche Been Conserved across Continents?

PubMed Central

Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O.; Lampo, Margarita; Velásquez, Grisel; Sharma, Gyan P.; García-Rangel, Shaenandhoa

2014-01-01

Lantana camara, a native plant from tropical America, is considered one of the most harmful invasive species worldwide. Several studies have identified potentially invasible areas under scenarios of global change, on the assumption that niche is conserved during the invasion process. Recent studies, however, suggest that many invasive plants do not conserve their niches. Using Principal Components Analyses (PCA), we tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for L. camara by comparing its native niche in South America with its expressed niche in Africa, Australia and India. Using MaxEnt, the estimated niche for the native region was projected onto each invaded region to generate potential distributions there. Our results demonstrate that while L. camara occupied subsets of its original native niche in Africa and Australia, in India its niche shifted significantly. There, 34% of the occurrences were detected in warmer habitats nonexistent in its native range. The estimated niche for India was also projected onto Africa and Australia to identify other vulnerable areas predicted from the observed niche shift detected in India. As a result, new potentially invasible areas were identified in central Africa and southern Australia. Our findings do not support the hypothesis of niche conservatism for the invasion of L. camara. The mechanisms that allow this species to expand its niche need to be investigated in order to improve our capacity to predict long-term geographic changes in the face of global climatic changes. PMID:25343481

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic withinmore » each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm –2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.« less

Global tidal phasing potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neill, S. P.; Cooper, M. M.; Lewis, M. J.

2016-02-01

Tidal energy is characterised by intermittency over a range of timescales, from semi-diurnal and lunar periods through to annual and decadal. Therefore, the electricity that can be generated by the tides will be characterised by similar scales of intermittency. However, with knowledge of the phase relationship between sites, it may be possible to reduce intermittency, particularly at the semi-diurnal timescale, by aggregating the electricity generated by discrete regions suitable for the conversion of tidal energy into electricity. In this study, we make use of a global tidal atlas (FES2012) to make a preliminary assessment of regions of the globe where it could be possible to combine the electricity generated at a number of discrete sites to provide firmer power to regional electricity networks. In contrast to the northwest European shelf, where the high tidal stream sites tend to either be in phase or 180 out-of-phase with one-another, we find numerous regions around the globe with potential for regional tidal phasing. However, development of higher resolution regional models, or the examination of field data, are required to fully characterise the phasing potential of these regions. In addition, technical and economical constraints on the resource should be considered such as water depth and distance to shore.

Historical U.S. cropland areas and the potential for bioenergy production on abandoned croplands.

PubMed

Zumkehr, A; Campbell, J E

2013-04-16

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. While these impacts have been explored using global gridded maps of croplands, such maps are based on relatively coarse spatial data. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories for the conterminous U.S. with a land-use model to develop historical gridded cropland areas for the years 1850-2000 and year 2000 abandoned cropland maps. While the historical cropland maps are consistent with generally accepted land-use trends, our U.S. abandoned cropland estimates of 68 Mha are as much as 70% larger than previous gridded estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. Renewed cultivation on the subset of abandoned croplands that have not become forests or urban lands represents one approach to mitigating the future expansion of agriculture. Potential bioenergy production from these abandoned lands using a wide range of biomass yields and conversion efficiencies has an upper-limit of 5-30% of the current U.S. primary energy demand or 4-30% of the current U.S. liquid fuel demand.

Possible global environmental impacts of solid waste practices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, M.M.; Holter, G.M.; DeForest, T.J.

1994-09-01

Pollutants resulting from the management of solid waste have been shown to affect the air, land, oceans, and waterways. In addition, solid wastes have other, more indirect impacts such as reduction in feedstocks of natural resources, because useful materials are disposed of rather than recycled. The objective of this study is to evaluate solid waste management practices that have negative implications on the global environment and develop recommendations for reducing such impacts. Recommendations identifying needed changes are identified that will reduce global impacts of solid waste practices in the future. The scope of this study includes the range of non-hazardousmore » solid wastes produced within our society, including municipal solid waste (MSW) and industrial solid waste (ISW), as well as industry-specific wastes from activities such as construction, demolition, and landclearing. Most solid waste management decisions continue to be made and implemented at very local levels, predominantly with a short-term focus to respond to relatively immediate pressures of landfill shortages, funding problems, political considerations, and the like. In this rush to address immediate local problems, little consideration is being given to potential impacts, either short- or long-term, at the national or global level resulting from solid waste management practices. More and more, the cumulative impacts from local decisions concerning solid waste management are beginning to manifest themselves in broader, longer-term impacts than are being addressed by the decision-makers or, at the very least, are presenting a greater and greater potential for such impacts.« less

Computational Approaches to Simulation and Optimization of Global Aircraft Trajectories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Hok Kwan; Sridhar, Banavar

2016-01-01

This study examines three possible approaches to improving the speed in generating wind-optimal routes for air traffic at the national or global level. They are: (a) using the resources of a supercomputer, (b) running the computations on multiple commercially available computers and (c) implementing those same algorithms into NASAs Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) and compares those to a standard implementation run on a single CPU. Wind-optimal aircraft trajectories are computed using global air traffic schedules. The run time and wait time on the supercomputer for trajectory optimization using various numbers of CPUs ranging from 80 to 10,240 units are compared with the total computational time for running the same computation on a single desktop computer and on multiple commercially available computers for potential computational enhancement through parallel processing on the computer clusters. This study also re-implements the trajectory optimization algorithm for further reduction of computational time through algorithm modifications and integrates that with FACET to facilitate the use of the new features which calculate time-optimal routes between worldwide airport pairs in a wind field for use with existing FACET applications. The implementations of trajectory optimization algorithms use MATLAB, Python, and Java programming languages. The performance evaluations are done by comparing their computational efficiencies and based on the potential application of optimized trajectories. The paper shows that in the absence of special privileges on a supercomputer, a cluster of commercially available computers provides a feasible approach for national and global air traffic system studies.

Global Adoption of Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: Challenges for the Public Sector.

PubMed

Huesing, Joseph E; Andres, David; Braverman, Michael P; Burns, Andrea; Felsot, Allan S; Harrigan, George G; Hellmich, Richard L; Reynolds, Alan; Shelton, Anthony M; Jansen van Rijssen, Wilna; Morris, E Jane; Eloff, Jacobus N

2016-01-20

Advances in biotechnology continue to drive the development of a wide range of insect-protected, herbicide-tolerant, stress-tolerant, and nutritionally enhanced genetically modified (GM) crops, yet societal and public policy considerations may slow their commercialization. Such restrictions may disproportionately affect developing countries, as well as smaller entrepreneurial and public sector initiatives. The 2014 IUPAC International Congress of Pesticide Chemistry (San Francisco, CA, USA; August 2014) included a symposium on "Challenges Associated with Global Adoption of Agricultural Biotechnology" to review current obstacles in promoting GM crops. Challenges identified by symposium presenters included (i) poor public understanding of GM technology and the need for enhanced communication strategies, (ii) nonharmonized and prescriptive regulatory requirements, and (iii) limited experience with regulations and product development within some public sector programs. The need for holistic resistance management programs to enable the most effective use of insect-protected crops was also a point of emphasis. This paper provides details on the symposium discussion and provides background information that can be used in support of further adoption of beneficial GM crops. Overall, it emphasizes that global adoption of modern agricultural biotechnology has not only provided benefits to growers and consumers but has great potential to provide solutions to an increasing global population and diminishing agricultural land. This potential will be realized by continued scientific innovation, harmonized regulatory systems, and broader communication of the benefits of the high-yielding, disease-resistant, and nutritionally enhanced crops attainable through modern biotechnology.

Ancestral origins and invasion pathways in a globally invasive bird correlate with climate and influences from bird trade

PubMed Central

Jackson, Hazel; Strubbe, Diederik; Tollington, Simon; Prys-Jones, Robert; Matthysen, Erik; Groombridge, Jim J

2015-01-01

Invasive species present a major threat to global biodiversity. Understanding genetic patterns and evolutionary processes that reinforce successful establishment is paramount for elucidating mechanisms underlying biological invasions. Among birds, the ring-necked parakeet (Psittacula krameri) is one of the most successful invasive species, established in over 35 countries. However, little is known about the evolutionary genetic origins of this species and what population genetic signatures tell us about patterns of invasion. We reveal the ancestral origins of populations across the invasive range and explore the potential influence of climate and propagule pressure from the pet trade on observed genetic patterns. Ring-necked parakeet samples representing the ancestral native range (n = 96) were collected from museum specimens, and modern samples from the invasive range (n = 855) were gathered from across Europe, Mauritius and Seychelles, and sequenced for two mitochondrial DNA markers comprising 868 bp of cytochrome b and control region, and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Invasive populations comprise birds that originate predominantly from Pakistan and northern areas of India. Haplotypes associated with more northerly distribution limits in the ancestral native range were more prevalent in invasive populations in Europe, and the predominance of Asian haplotypes in Europe is consistent with the higher number of Asian birds transported by the pet trade outside the native range. Successful establishment of invasive species is likely to be underpinned by a combination of environmental and anthropogenic influences. PMID:26172573

Ancestral origins and invasion pathways in a globally invasive bird correlate with climate and influences from bird trade.

PubMed

Jackson, Hazel; Strubbe, Diederik; Tollington, Simon; Prys-Jones, Robert; Matthysen, Erik; Groombridge, Jim J

2015-08-01

Invasive species present a major threat to global biodiversity. Understanding genetic patterns and evolutionary processes that reinforce successful establishment is paramount for elucidating mechanisms underlying biological invasions. Among birds, the ring-necked parakeet (Psittacula krameri) is one of the most successful invasive species, established in over 35 countries. However, little is known about the evolutionary genetic origins of this species and what population genetic signatures tell us about patterns of invasion. We reveal the ancestral origins of populations across the invasive range and explore the potential influence of climate and propagule pressure from the pet trade on observed genetic patterns. Ring-necked parakeet samples representing the ancestral native range (n = 96) were collected from museum specimens, and modern samples from the invasive range (n = 855) were gathered from across Europe, Mauritius and Seychelles, and sequenced for two mitochondrial DNA markers comprising 868 bp of cytochrome b and control region, and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Invasive populations comprise birds that originate predominantly from Pakistan and northern areas of India. Haplotypes associated with more northerly distribution limits in the ancestral native range were more prevalent in invasive populations in Europe, and the predominance of Asian haplotypes in Europe is consistent with the higher number of Asian birds transported by the pet trade outside the native range. Successful establishment of invasive species is likely to be underpinned by a combination of environmental and anthropogenic influences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strapasson, Alexandre; Woods, Jeremy; Chum, Helena

Across energy, agricultural and forestry landscapes, the production of biomass for energy has emerged as a controversial driver of land-use change. We present a novel, simple methodology, to probe the potential global sustainability limits of bioenergy over time for energy provision and climate change mitigation using a complex-systems approach for assessing land-use dynamics. Primary biomass that could provide between 70 EJ year -1 and 360 EJ year -1, globally, by 2050 was simulated in the context of different land-use futures, food diet patterns and climate change mitigation efforts. Our simulations also show ranges of potential greenhouse gas emissions for agriculture,more » forestry and other land uses by 2050, including not only above-ground biomass-related emissions, but also from changes in soil carbon, from as high as 24 GtCO 2eq year-1 to as low as minus 21 GtCO 2eq year -1, which would represent a significant source of negative emissions. Based on the modelling simulations, the discussions offer novel insights about bioenergy as part of a broader integrated system. As a result, there are sustainability limits to the scale of bioenergy provision, they are dynamic over time, being responsive to land management options deployed worldwide.« less

On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation

DOE PAGES

Strapasson, Alexandre; Woods, Jeremy; Chum, Helena; ...

2017-05-24

Across energy, agricultural and forestry landscapes, the production of biomass for energy has emerged as a controversial driver of land-use change. We present a novel, simple methodology, to probe the potential global sustainability limits of bioenergy over time for energy provision and climate change mitigation using a complex-systems approach for assessing land-use dynamics. Primary biomass that could provide between 70 EJ year -1 and 360 EJ year -1, globally, by 2050 was simulated in the context of different land-use futures, food diet patterns and climate change mitigation efforts. Our simulations also show ranges of potential greenhouse gas emissions for agriculture,more » forestry and other land uses by 2050, including not only above-ground biomass-related emissions, but also from changes in soil carbon, from as high as 24 GtCO 2eq year-1 to as low as minus 21 GtCO 2eq year -1, which would represent a significant source of negative emissions. Based on the modelling simulations, the discussions offer novel insights about bioenergy as part of a broader integrated system. As a result, there are sustainability limits to the scale of bioenergy provision, they are dynamic over time, being responsive to land management options deployed worldwide.« less

Predicted global warming scenarios impact on the mother plant to alter seed dormancy and germination behaviour in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Huang, Z; Footitt, S; Tang, A; Finch-Savage, W E

2018-01-01

Seed characteristics are key components of plant fitness that are influenced by temperature in their maternal environment, and temperature will change with global warming. To study the effect of such temperature changes, Arabidopsis thaliana plants were grown to produce seeds along a uniquely designed polyethylene tunnel having a thermal gradient reflecting local global warming predictions. Plants therefore experienced the same variations in temperature and light conditions but different mean temperatures. A range of seed-related plant fitness estimates were measured. There were dramatic non-linear temperature effects on the germination behaviour in two contrasting ecotypes. Maternal temperatures lower than 15-16 °C resulted in significantly greater primary dormancy. In addition, the impact of nitrate in the growing media on dormancy was shown only by seeds produced below 15-16 °C. However, there were no consistent effects on seed yield, number, or size. Effects on germination behaviour were shown to be a species characteristic responding to temperature and not time of year. Elevating temperature above this critical value during seed development has the potential to dramatically alter the timing of subsequent seed germination and the proportion entering the soil seed bank. This has potential consequences for the whole plant life cycle and species fitness. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biotic and abiotic factors predicting the global distribution and population density of an invasive large mammal

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jesse S.; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Burdett, Chris L.; Theobald, David M.; Gray, Miranda; Miller, Ryan S.

2017-01-01

Biotic and abiotic factors are increasingly acknowledged to synergistically shape broad-scale species distributions. However, the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting species distributions is unclear. In particular, biotic factors, such as predation and vegetation, including those resulting from anthropogenic land-use change, are underrepresented in species distribution modeling, but could improve model predictions. Using generalized linear models and model selection techniques, we used 129 estimates of population density of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from 5 continents to evaluate the relative importance, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting population density of an invasive large mammal with a global distribution. Incorporating diverse biotic factors, including agriculture, vegetation cover, and large carnivore richness, into species distribution modeling substantially improved model fit and predictions. Abiotic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were also important predictors. The predictive map of population density revealed wide-ranging potential for an invasive large mammal to expand its distribution globally. This information can be used to proactively create conservation/management plans to control future invasions. Our study demonstrates that the ongoing paradigm shift, which recognizes that both biotic and abiotic factors shape species distributions across broad scales, can be advanced by incorporating diverse biotic factors. PMID:28276519

Leveraging non-binding instruments for global health governance: reflections from the Global AIDS Reporting Mechanism for WHO reform.

PubMed

Taylor, A L; Alfven, T; Hougendobler, D; Tanaka, S; Buse, K

2014-02-01

As countries contend with an increasingly complex global environment with direct implications for population health, the international community is seeking novel mechanisms to incentivize coordinated national and international action towards shared health goals. Binding legal instruments have garnered increasing attention since the World Health Organization adopted its first convention in 2003. This paper seeks to expand the discourse on future global health lawmaking by exploring the potential value of non-binding instruments in global health governance, drawing on the case of the 2001 United Nations General Assembly Special Session Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS. In other realms of international concern ranging from the environment to human rights to arms control, non-binding instruments are increasingly used as effective instruments of international cooperation. The experience of the Global AIDS Reporting Mechanism, established pursuant to the Declaration, evidences that, at times, non-binding legal instruments can offer benefits over slower, more rigid binding legal approaches to governance. The global AIDS response has demonstrated that the use of a non-binding instrument can be remarkably effective in galvanizing increasingly deep commitments, action, reporting compliance and ultimately accountability for results. Based on this case, the authors argued that non-binding instruments deserve serious consideration by the international community for the future of global health governance, including in the context of WHO reform. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Toward common mechanisms for risk factors in Alzheimer's syndrome.

PubMed

Medina, Miguel; Khachaturian, Zaven S; Rossor, Martin; Avila, Jesús; Cedazo-Minguez, Angel

2017-11-01

The global strategic goal of reducing health care cost, especially the prospects for massive increases due to expanding markets for health care services demanded by aging populations and/or people with a wide range of chronic disorders-disabilities, is a complex and formidable challenge with many facets. Current projections predict marked increases in the demand for health driven by both the exponential climb in the prevalence of chronic disabilities and the increases in the absolute numbers of people in need of some form of health care. Thus, the looming predicament for the economics of health care systems worldwide mandates the formulation of a strategic goal to foster significant expansion of global R&D efforts to discover and develop wide-ranging interventions to delay and/or prevent the onset of chronic disabling conditions. The rationale for adopting such a tactical objective is based on the premise that the costs and prevalence of chronic disabling conditions will be reduced by half even if a modest delay of 5 years in the onset of disability is obtained by a highly focused multinational research initiative. Because of the recent history of many failures in drug trials, the central thesis of this paper is to argue for the exploration-adoption of novel mechanistic ideas, theories, and paradigms for developing wide range and/or types of interventions. Although the primary focus of our discussion has been on biological approaches to therapy, we recognize the importance of emerging knowledge on nonpharmacological interventions and their potential impact in reducing health care costs. Although we may not find a drug to cure or prevent dementia for a long time, research is starting to demonstrate the potential contributes of nonpharmacological interventions toward the economics of health care in terms of rehabilitation, promoting autonomy, and potential to delay institutionalization, thus promoting healthy aging and reductions in the cost of care.

Uncertainty of the global oceanic CO2 exchange at the air-water interface induced by the choice of the gas exchange velocity formulation and the wind product: quantification and spatial analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobaert, Alizee; Laruelle, Goulven; Landschützer, Peter; Regnier, Pierre

2017-04-01

In lakes, rivers, estuaries and the ocean, the quantification of air-water CO2 exchange (FCO2) is still characterized by large uncertainties partly due to the lack of agreement over the parameterization of the gas exchange velocity (k). Although the ocean is generally regarded as the best constrained system because k is only controlled by the wind speed, numerous formulations are still currently used, leading to potentially large differences in FCO2. Here, a quantitative global spatial analysis of FCO2 is presented using several k-wind speed formulations in order to compare the effect of the choice of parameterization of k on FCO2. This analysis is performed at a 1 degree resolution using a sea surface pCO2 product generated using a two-step artificial neuronal network by Landschützer et al. (2015) over the 1991-2011 period. Four different global wind speed datasets (CCMP, ERA, NCEP 1 and NCEP 2) are also used to assess the effect of the choice of one wind speed product over the other when calculating the global and regional oceanic FCO2. Results indicate that this choice of wind speed product only leads to small discrepancies globally (6 %) except with NCEP 2 which produces a more intense global FCO2 compared to the other wind products. Regionally, theses differences are even more pronounced. For a given wind speed product, the choice of parametrization of k yields global FCO2 differences ranging from 7 % to 16 % depending on the wind product used. We also provide latitudinal profiles of FCO2 and its uncertainty calculated combining all combinations between the different k-relationships and the four wind speed products. Wind speeds >14 m s-1, which only account for 7 % of all observations, contributes disproportionately to the global oceanic FCO2 and, for this range of wind speeds, the uncertainty induced by the choice of formulation for k is maximum ( 50 %).

Nasal potential difference measurements in diagnosis of cystic fibrosis: an international survey.

PubMed

Naehrlich, Lutz; Ballmann, Manfred; Davies, Jane; Derichs, Nico; Gonska, Tanja; Hjelte, Lena; van Konigsbruggen-Rietschel, Silke; Leal, Teresinha; Melotti, Paola; Middleton, Peter; Tümmler, Burkhard; Vermeulen, Francois; Wilschanski, Michael

2014-01-01

The role of nasal potential difference (NPD) measurement as a diagnostic test for cystic fibrosis (CF) is a subject of global controversy because of the lack of validation studies, clear reference values, and standardized protocols for diagnostic NPD. To determine diagnostic NPD frequency, protocols, interpretation, and rater agreement, we surveyed the 18 NPD centres of the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Diagnostic Network Working Group. Fifteen centres reported performing 373 diagnostic NPDs in 2012. Most use the CFF-TDN-SOP (67%) and the chloride-free + isoproterenol response of the side with the largest response (47%) as diagnostic criteria and use centre-specific reference ranges. Rater agreement for five NPD tracings - in general - was good, but poor in tracings with different responses between the two nostrils. NPD is frequently used as a diagnostic and research tool for CF. Performance is highly standardized, centre-specific reference ranges are established, and rater agreement - in general - is good. Centre-independent diagnostic criteria and reference ranges must be defined by multicentre validation studies to improve standardized interpretation for diagnostic use. © 2013.

Tree range expansion may be enhanced by escape from negative plant-soil feedbacks.

PubMed

McCarthy-Neumann, Sarah; Ibáñez, Inés

2012-12-01

Many plant species are expected to shift their distributional ranges in response to global warming. As they arrive at new sites, migrant plant species may be released from their natural soil pathogens and/or deprived of key symbiotic organisms. Under such scenarios plant-soil feedbacks (PSF) will likely have an impact on plant species' ability to establish in new areas. In this study we evaluated the role that PSF may play on the migratory potential of dominant temperate tree species at the northern limit of their distributional range in the Great Lakes region of North America. To test their ability to expand their current range, we assessed seedling establishment, i.e., survival, of local and potential migrant tree species in a field transplant experiment. To test for the presence and strength of PSF, we also assessed seedling survival during establishment in a greenhouse experiment, where the potential migrant species were grown in soils collected within and beyond their distributional ranges. The combination of experiments provided us with a comprehensive understanding of the role of PSF in seedling establishment in new areas. In the field, we found that survival for most migrant species was similar to those of the local community, ensuring that these species could establish in areas beyond their current range. In the greenhouse, we found that the majority of species experienced strong negative conspecific feedbacks mediated by soil biota, but these responses occurred for most species only in low light conditions. Lastly, our combined results indicate that migrant tree species can colonize and may even have enhanced short-term recruitment beyond their ranges due to a lack of conspecific adults (and the resulting negative PSF from these adults).

Assessment of global flood exposures - developing an appropriate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Booth, Naomi

2015-04-01

Increasingly complex probabilistic catastrophe models have become the standard for quantitative flood risk assessments by re/insurance companies. On the one hand, probabilistic modelling of this nature is extremely useful; a large range of risk metrics can be output. However, they can be time consuming and computationally expensive to develop and run. Levels of uncertainty are persistently high despite, or perhaps because of, attempts to increase resolution and complexity. A cycle of dependency between modelling companies and re/insurers has developed whereby available models are purchased, models run, and both portfolio and model data 'improved' every year. This can lead to potential exposures in perils and territories that are not currently modelled being largely overlooked by companies, who may then face substantial and unexpected losses when large events occur in these areas. We present here an approach to assessing global flood exposures which reduces the scale and complexity of approach used and begins with the identification of hotspots where there is a significant exposure to flood risk. The method comprises four stages: i) compile consistent exposure information, ii) to apply reinsurance terms and conditions to calculate values exposed, iii) to assess the potential hazard using a global set of flood hazard maps, and iv) to identify potential risk 'hotspots' which include considerations of spatially and/or temporally clustered historical events, and local flood defences. This global exposure assessment is designed as a scoping exercise, and reveals areas or cities where the potential for accumulated loss is of significant interest to a reinsurance company, and for which there is no existing catastrophe model. These regions are then candidates for the development of deterministic scenarios, or probabilistic models. The key advantages of this approach will be discussed. These include simplicity and ability of business leaders to understand results, as well as ease and speed of analysis and the advantages this can offer in terms of monitoring changing exposures over time. Significantly, in many areas of the world, this increase in exposure is likely to have more of an impact on increasing catastrophe losses than potential anthropogenically driven changes in weather extremes.

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

Does landscape connectivity shape local and global social network structure in white-tailed deer?

PubMed Central

Koen, Erin L.; Tosa, Marie I.; Nielsen, Clayton K.; Schauber, Eric M.

2017-01-01

Intraspecific social behavior can be influenced by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. While much research has focused on how characteristics of individuals influence their roles in social networks, we were interested in the role that landscape structure plays in animal sociality at both individual (local) and population (global) levels. We used female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Illinois, USA, to investigate the potential effect of landscape on social network structure by weighting the edges of seasonal social networks with association rate (based on proximity inferred from GPS collar data). At the local level, we found that sociality among female deer in neighboring social groups (n = 36) was mainly explained by their home range overlap, with two exceptions: 1) during fawning in an area of mixed forest and grassland, deer whose home ranges had low forest connectivity were more social than expected; and 2) during the rut in an area of intensive agriculture, deer inhabiting home ranges with high amount and connectedness of agriculture were more social than expected. At the global scale, we found that deer populations (n = 7) in areas with highly connected forest-agriculture edge, a high proportion of agriculture, and a low proportion of forest tended to have higher weighted network closeness, although low sample size precluded statistical significance. This result implies that infectious disease could spread faster in deer populations inhabiting such landscapes. Our work advances the general understanding of animal social networks, demonstrating how landscape features can underlie differences in social behavior both within and among wildlife social networks. PMID:28306748

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

2016-04-28

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Global Test Range: Toward Airborne Sensor Webs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mace, Thomas H.; Freudinger, Larry; DelFrate John H.

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the planned global sensor network that will monitor the Earth's climate, and resources using airborne sensor systems. The vision is an intelligent, affordable Earth Observation System. Global Test Range is a lab developing trustworthy services for airborne instruments - a specialized Internet Service Provider. There is discussion of several current and planned missions.

Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

PubMed

McGuire, B

2010-05-28

Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

Laboratory Spectroscopy of Fluorinated Molecules for Atmospheric Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin, Paul Joseph

Temperature-dependent absorption cross-sections are presented for five fluorinated molecules considered to be greenhouse gases due to being radiatively active in the mid-infrared. The molecules studied are perfluorotributylamine (PFTBA), 2,2,3,3,3- pentafluoropropanol (PFPO), 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoro-2-propanol (HFIP), perfluorodecalin (PFDC), and 2H,3H-perfluoropentane (HFC-43-10mee). HFIP is a fluorinated liquid commonly used as a specialty solvent for some polar polymers and in organic synthesis. PFTBA, PFPO, and HFC-43-10mee are commonly used in electronic and industrial applications. PFDC is capable of dissolving large quantities of gases, making it useful for a variety of medical applications. Experimental absorption cross-sections were derived from Fourier transform infrared spectra recorded from 530 to 3400 cm ?1 with a resolution of 0.1 cm ?1 over a temperature range of 298 to 360 K. These results were compared to theoretical density functional theory (DFT) calculations and previously published experimental measurements made at room temperature. Theoretical DFT calculations were performed using the B3LYP method and a minimum basis set of 6-311+G(d,p). The calculations have determined the optimized geometrical configuration, infrared intensities, and wavenumbers of the harmonic frequencies for different ground-state configurations due to the presence of internal rotors. As the population of each configuration changes with temperature, changes in the experimental spectra were used to make accurate band assignments. From these band assignments, the DFT spectra were calibrated to match the experimental spectra, increasing the accuracy of the DFT prediction outside of the experimental range. Using the adjusted DFT-calculated spectra, the wavenumber range was extended beyond the experimental range to calculate radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials. When using only the experimental range, the new values agreed with previously published values. However, when the range was extended using the DFT spectra, the radiative efficiency and global warming potential were increased, suggesting that the current values are underestimating the climate impacts of these species. Additionally, work done on building a multipass White cell is presented. This new system can be used in the future to resolve weak lines to extract line parameters needed for atmospheric trace gas retrievals.

Entrofy: Participant Selection Made Easy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppenkothen, Daniela

2016-03-01

Selection participants for a workshop out of a much larger applicant pool can be a difficult task, especially when the goal is diversifying over a range of criteria (e.g. academic seniority, research field, skill levels, gender etc). In this talk I am presenting our tool, Entrofy, aimed at aiding organizers in this task. Entrofy is an open-source tool using a maximum entropy-based algorithm that aims to select a set of participants out of the applicant pool such that a pre-defined range of criteria are globally maximized. This approach allows for a potentially more transparent and less biased selection process while encouraging organizers to think deeply about the goals and the process of their participant selection.

The financing gaps framework: using need, potential spending and expected spending to allocate development assistance for health

PubMed Central

Haakenstad, Annie; Templin, Tara; Lim, Stephen; Bump, Jesse B; Dieleman, Joseph

2018-01-01

Abstract As growth in development assistance for health levels off, development assistance partners must make allocation decisions within tighter budget constraints. Furthermore, with the advent of comprehensive and comparable burden of disease and health financing estimates, empirical evidence can increasingly be used to direct funding to those most in need. In our ‘financing gaps framework’, we propose a new approach for harnessing information to make decisions about health aid. The framework was designed to be forward-looking, goal-oriented, versatile and customizable to a range of organizational contexts and health aims. Our framework brings together expected health spending, potential health spending and spending need, to orient financing decisions around international health targets. As an example of how the framework could be applied, we develop a case study, focused on global goals for child health. The case study harnesses data from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study, Financing Global Health 2015, the WHO Global Health Observatory and National Health Accounts. Funding flows are tied to progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal’s target for reductions in under-five mortality. The flexibility and comprehensiveness of our framework makes it adaptable for use by a diverse set of governments, donors, policymakers and other stakeholders. The framework can be adapted to short‐ or long‐run time frames, cross‐country or subnational scales, and to a number of specific health focus areas. Depending on donor preferences, the framework can be deployed to incentivize local investments in health, ensuring the long-term sustainability of health systems in low- and middle-income countries, while also furnishing international support for progress toward global health goals. PMID:29415240

Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehan, Casey R.

Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses. Finally, I present the implications this conundrum has for teaching about global warming in a politically polarized atmosphere.

Tidal dynamics and mangrove carbon sequestration during the Oligo–Miocene in the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Collins, Daniel S.; Avdis, Alexandros; Allison, Peter A.; Johnson, Howard D.; Hill, Jon; Piggott, Matthew D.; Hassan, Meor H. Amir; Damit, Abdul Razak

2017-01-01

Modern mangroves are among the most carbon-rich biomes on Earth, but their long-term (≥106 years) impact on the global carbon cycle is unknown. The extent, productivity and preservation of mangroves are controlled by the interplay of tectonics, global sea level and sedimentation, including tide, wave and fluvial processes. The impact of these processes on mangrove-bearing successions in the Oligo–Miocene of the South China Sea (SCS) is evaluated herein. Palaeogeographic reconstructions, palaeotidal modelling and facies analysis suggest that elevated tidal range and bed shear stress optimized mangrove development along tide-influenced tropical coastlines. Preservation of mangrove organic carbon (OC) was promoted by high tectonic subsidence and fluvial sediment supply. Lithospheric storage of OC in peripheral SCS basins potentially exceeded 4,000 Gt (equivalent to 2,000 p.p.m. of atmospheric CO2). These results highlight the crucial impact of tectonic and oceanographic processes on mangrove OC sequestration within the global carbon cycle on geological timescales. PMID:28643789

A global perspective on the trophic geography of sharks.

PubMed

Bird, Christopher S; Veríssimo, Ana; Magozzi, Sarah; Abrantes, Kátya G; Aguilar, Alex; Al-Reasi, Hassan; Barnett, Adam; Bethea, Dana M; Biais, Gérard; Borrell, Asuncion; Bouchoucha, Marc; Boyle, Mariah; Brooks, Edward J; Brunnschweiler, Juerg; Bustamante, Paco; Carlisle, Aaron; Catarino, Diana; Caut, Stéphane; Cherel, Yves; Chouvelon, Tiphaine; Churchill, Diana; Ciancio, Javier; Claes, Julien; Colaço, Ana; Courtney, Dean L; Cresson, Pierre; Daly, Ryan; de Necker, Leigh; Endo, Tetsuya; Figueiredo, Ivone; Frisch, Ashley J; Hansen, Joan Holst; Heithaus, Michael; Hussey, Nigel E; Iitembu, Johannes; Juanes, Francis; Kinney, Michael J; Kiszka, Jeremy J; Klarian, Sebastian A; Kopp, Dorothée; Leaf, Robert; Li, Yunkai; Lorrain, Anne; Madigan, Daniel J; Maljković, Aleksandra; Malpica-Cruz, Luis; Matich, Philip; Meekan, Mark G; Ménard, Frédéric; Menezes, Gui M; Munroe, Samantha E M; Newman, Michael C; Papastamatiou, Yannis P; Pethybridge, Heidi; Plumlee, Jeffrey D; Polo-Silva, Carlos; Quaeck-Davies, Katie; Raoult, Vincent; Reum, Jonathan; Torres-Rojas, Yassir Eden; Shiffman, David S; Shipley, Oliver N; Speed, Conrad W; Staudinger, Michelle D; Teffer, Amy K; Tilley, Alexander; Valls, Maria; Vaudo, Jeremy J; Wai, Tak-Cheung; Wells, R J David; Wyatt, Alex S J; Yool, Andrew; Trueman, Clive N

2018-02-01

Sharks are a diverse group of mobile predators that forage across varied spatial scales and have the potential to influence food web dynamics. The ecological consequences of recent declines in shark biomass may extend across broader geographic ranges if shark taxa display common behavioural traits. By tracking the original site of photosynthetic fixation of carbon atoms that were ultimately assimilated into muscle tissues of 5,394 sharks from 114 species, we identify globally consistent biogeographic traits in trophic interactions between sharks found in different habitats. We show that populations of shelf-dwelling sharks derive a substantial proportion of their carbon from regional pelagic sources, but contain individuals that forage within additional isotopically diverse local food webs, such as those supported by terrestrial plant sources, benthic production and macrophytes. In contrast, oceanic sharks seem to use carbon derived from between 30° and 50° of latitude. Global-scale compilations of stable isotope data combined with biogeochemical modelling generate hypotheses regarding animal behaviours that can be tested with other methodological approaches.

Patterns and Emerging Trends in Global Ocean Health

PubMed Central

Halpern, Benjamin S.; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia S. Stewart; Best, Benjamin D.; Frazier, Melanie; Katona, Steven K.; Kleisner, Kristin M.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.; Scarborough, Courtney; Selig, Elizabeth R.

2015-01-01

International and regional policies aimed at managing ocean ecosystem health need quantitative and comprehensive indices to synthesize information from a variety of sources, consistently measure progress, and communicate with key constituencies and the public. Here we present the second annual global assessment of the Ocean Health Index, reporting current scores and annual changes since 2012, recalculated using updated methods and data based on the best available science, for 221 coastal countries and territories. The Index measures performance of ten societal goals for healthy oceans on a quantitative scale of increasing health from 0 to 100, and combines these scores into a single Index score, for each country and globally. The global Index score improved one point (from 67 to 68), while many country-level Index and goal scores had larger changes. Per-country Index scores ranged from 41–95 and, on average, improved by 0.06 points (range -8 to +12). Globally, average scores increased for individual goals by as much as 6.5 points (coastal economies) and decreased by as much as 1.2 points (natural products). Annual updates of the Index, even when not all input data have been updated, provide valuable information to scientists, policy makers, and resource managers because patterns and trends can emerge from the data that have been updated. Changes of even a few points indicate potential successes (when scores increase) that merit recognition, or concerns (when scores decrease) that may require mitigative action, with changes of more than 10–20 points representing large shifts that deserve greater attention. Goal scores showed remarkably little covariance across regions, indicating low redundancy in the Index, such that each goal delivers information about a different facet of ocean health. Together these scores provide a snapshot of global ocean health and suggest where countries have made progress and where a need for further improvement exists. PMID:25774678

The global burden of neonatal hypothermia: systematic review of a major challenge for newborn survival

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background To provide evidence on the global epidemiological situation of neonatal hypothermia and to provide recommendations for future policy and research directions. Methods Using PubMed as our principal electronic reference library, we searched studies for prevalence and risk factor data on neonatal hypothermia in resource-limited environments globally. Studies specifying study location, setting (hospital or community based), sample size, case definition of body temperature for hypothermia, temperature measurement method, and point estimates for hypothermia prevalence were eligible for inclusion. Results Hypothermia is common in infants born at hospitals (prevalence range, 32% to 85%) and homes (prevalence range, 11% to 92%), even in tropical environments. The lack of thermal protection is still an underappreciated major challenge for newborn survival in developing countries. Although hypothermia is rarely a direct cause of death, it contributes to a substantial proportion of neonatal mortality globally, mostly as a comorbidity of severe neonatal infections, preterm birth, and asphyxia. Thresholds for the definition of hypothermia vary, and data on its prevalence in neonates is scarce, particularly on a community level in Africa. Conclusions A standardized approach to the collection and analysis of hypothermia data in existing newborn programs and studies is needed to inform policy and program planners on optimal thermal protection interventions. Thermoprotective behavior changes such as skin-to-skin care or the use of appropriate devices have not yet been scaled up globally. The introduction of simple hypothermia prevention messages and interventions into evidence-based, cost-effective packages for maternal and newborn care has promising potential to decrease the heavy global burden of newborn deaths attributable to severe infections, prematurity, and asphyxia. Because preventing and treating newborn hypothermia in health institutions and communities is relatively easy, addressing this widespread challenge might play a substantial role in reaching Millennium Development Goal 4, a reduction of child mortality. PMID:23369256

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

2017-05-01

The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

Characterisation of the Permafrost Carbon Pool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhry, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Ping, C.-L.; Schirrmeister, L.; Tarnocai, C.

2013-01-01

The current estimate of the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool in the northern permafrost region of 1672 Petagrams (Pg) C is much larger than previously reported and needs to be incorporated in global soil carbon (C) inventories. The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD), extended to include the range 0–300 cm, is now available online for wider use by the scientific community. An important future aim is to provide quantitative uncertainty ranges for C pool estimates. Recent studies have greatly improved understanding of the regional patterns, landscape distribution and vertical (soil horizon) partitioning of the permafrost C pool in the upper 3 m of soils. However, the deeper C pools in unconsolidated Quaternary deposits need to be better constrained. A general lability classification of the permafrost C pool should be developed to address potential C release upon thaw. The permafrost C pool and its dynamics are beginning to be incorporated into Earth System models, although key periglacial processes such as thermokarst still need to be properly represented to obtain a better quantification of the full permafrost C feedback on global climate change.

Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave Lidar at 1.57 Micrometer for Atmospheric CO2 Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Ismail, Syed; Browell, Edward; Meadows, Byron; Nehrir, Amin; Harrison, Wallace F.; Dobler, Jeremy; Obland, Michael

2014-01-01

Understanding the earth's carbon cycle is essential for diagnosing current and predicting future climates, which requires precise global measurements of atmospheric CO2 through space missions. The Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) space mission will provide accurate global atmospheric CO2 measurements to meet carbon science requirements. The joint team of NASA Langley Research Center and ITT Exelis, Inc proposes to use the intensity-modulated, continuous-wave (IM-CW) lidar approach for the ASCENDS mission. Prototype instruments have been developed and used to demonstrate the power, signal-to-noise ratio, precision and accuracy, spectral purity, and stability of the measurement and the instrument needed for atmospheric CO2 observations from space. The ranging capability from laser platform to ground surfaces or intermediate backscatter layers is achieved by transmitted range-encoded IM laser signals. Based on the prototype instruments and current lidar technologies, space lidar systems and their CO2 column measurements are analyzed. These studies exhibit a great potential of using IM-CW lidar system for the active space CO2 mission ASCENDS.

Conformational Entropy from Slowly Relaxing Local Structure Analysis of 15N-H Relaxation in Proteins: Application to Pheromone Binding to MUP-I in the 283-308 K Temperature Range.

PubMed

Žídek, Lukáš; Meirovitch, Eva

2017-09-21

The slowly relaxing local structure (SRLS) approach is applied to 15 N-H relaxation from the major urinary protein I (MUP-I), and its complex with pheromone 2-sec-butyl-4,5-dihydrothiazol. The objective is to elucidate dynamics, and binding-induced changes in conformational entropy. Experimental data acquired previously in the 283-308 K temperature range are used. The N-H bond is found to reorient globally with correlation time, τ 1,0 , and locally with correlation time, τ 2,0 , where τ 1,0 ≫ τ 2,0 . The local motion is restricted by the potential u = -c 0 2 D 00 2 , where D 00 2 is the Wigner rotation matrix element for L = 2, K = 0, and c 0 2 evaluates the strength of the potential. u yields straightforwardly the order parameter, ⟨D 00 2 ⟩, and the conformational entropy, S k , both given by P eq = exp(-u). The deviation of the local ordering/local diffusion axis from the N-H bond, given by the angle β, is also determined. We find that c 0 2 ≅ 18 ± 4 and τ 2,0 = 0-170 ps for ligand-free MUP-I, whereas c 0 2 ≅ 15 ± 4 and τ 2,0 = 20-270 ps for ligand-bound MUP-I. β is in the 0-10° range. c 0 2 and τ 2,0 decrease, whereas β increases, when the temperature is increased from 283 to 308 K. Thus, SRLS provides physically well-defined structure-related (c 0 2 and ⟨D 00 2 ⟩), motion-related (τ 2,0 ), geometry-related (β), and binding-related (S k ) local parameters, and their temperature-dependences. Intriguingly, upon pheromone binding the conformational entropy of MUP-I decreases at high temperature and increases at low temperature. The very same experimental data were analyzed previously with the model-free (MF) method which yielded "global" (in this context, "relating to the entire 283-308 K range") amplitude (S 2 ) and rate (τ e ) of the local motion, and a phenomenological exchange term (R ex ). S 2 is found to decrease (implying implicitly "global" increase in S k ) upon pheromone binding.

Green-house gas mitigation capacity of a small scale rural biogas plant calculations for Bangladesh through a general life cycle assessment.

PubMed

Rahman, Khondokar M; Melville, Lynsey; Fulford, David; Huq, Sm Imamul

2017-10-01

Calculations towards determining the greenhouse gas mitigation capacity of a small-scale biogas plant (3.2 m 3 plant) using cow dung in Bangladesh are presented. A general life cycle assessment was used, evaluating key parameters (biogas, methane, construction materials and feedstock demands) to determine the net environmental impact. The global warming potential saving through the use of biogas as a cooking fuel is reduced from 0.40 kg CO 2 equivalent to 0.064 kg CO 2 equivalent per kilogram of dung. Biomethane used for cooking can contribute towards mitigation of global warming. Prior to utilisation of the global warming potential of methane (from 3.2 m 3 biogas plant), the global warming potential is 13 t of carbon dioxide equivalent. This reduced to 2 t as a result of complete combustion of methane. The global warming potential saving of a bioenergy plant across a 20-year life cycle is 217 t of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 11 t per year. The global warming potential of the resultant digestate is zero and from construction materials is less than 1% of total global warming potential. When the biogas is used as a fuel for cooking, the global warming potential will reduce by 83% compare with the traditional wood biomass cooking system. The total 80 MJ of energy that can be produced from a 3.2 m 3 anaerobic digestion plant would replace 1.9 t of fuel wood or 632 kg of kerosene currently used annually in Bangladesh. The digestate can also be used as a nutrient rich fertiliser substituting more costly inorganic fertilisers, with no global warming potential impact.

Dense Matching Comparison Between Census and a Convolutional Neural Network Algorithm for Plant Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Y.; Tian, J.; d'Angelo, P.; Reinartz, P.

2018-05-01

3D reconstruction of plants is hard to implement, as the complex leaf distribution highly increases the difficulty level in dense matching. Semi-Global Matching has been successfully applied to recover the depth information of a scene, but may perform variably when different matching cost algorithms are used. In this paper two matching cost computation algorithms, Census transform and an algorithm using a convolutional neural network, are tested for plant reconstruction based on Semi-Global Matching. High resolution close-range photogrammetric images from a handheld camera are used for the experiment. The disparity maps generated based on the two selected matching cost methods are comparable with acceptable quality, which shows the good performance of Census and the potential of neural networks to improve the dense matching.

Satellite communications for disaster relief operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivo, J. N.

1979-01-01

The use of existing and planned communication satellite systems to provide assistance in the implementation of disaster relief operations on a global basis was discussed along with satellite communications system implications and their potential impact on field operations in disaster situations. Consideration are given to the utilization of both INTELSAT and MARISAT systems operating at frequencies ranging from 1.5 to 4 GHz and to the size and type of ground terminals necessary for satellite access. Estimates of communication requirements for a global system are given. Some discussion of cost estimates for satellite services to support operations are included. Studies of communication satellites for both pre and post disaster applications conducted for NOAA are included as well as recent experiments conducted in conjunction with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the Agency for International Development.

Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature: Workshop 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoku, E. G.

1983-01-01

Satellite measurements of sea surface temperature are now possible using a variety of sensors. The present accuracies of these methods are in the range of 0.5 to 2.0 C. This makes them potentially useful for synoptic studies of ocean currents and for global monitoring of climatological anomalies. To improve confidence in the satellite data, objective evaluations of sensor accuracies are necessary, and the conditions under which these accuracies degrade need to be understood. The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on the Nimbus-7 satellite was studied. Sea surface temperatures, derived from November 1979 SMMR data, were compared globally against ship measurements and climatology, using facilities of the JPL Pilot Ocean Data System. Methods for improved data analysis and plans for additional workshops to incorporate data from other sensors were discussed.

Earthquakes and sea level - Space and terrestrial metrology on a changing planet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bilham, R.

1991-02-01

A review is presented of the stability and scale of crustal deformation metrology which has particular relevance to monitoring deformation associated with sea level and earthquakes. Developments in space geodesy and crustal deformation metrology in the last two decades have the potential to acquire a homogeneous global data set for monitoring relative horizontal and vertical motions of the earth's surface to within several millimeters. New tools discussed for forecasting sea level rise and damaging earthquakes include: very long baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging, the principles of GPS geodesy, and new sea level sensors. Space geodesy permits a unified global basismore » for future metrology of the earth, and the continued availability of the GPS is currently fundamental to this unification.« less

Global surface temperatures and the atmospheric electrical circuit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin

1993-01-01

To monitor future global temperature trends, it would be extremely useful if parameters nonlinearly related to surface temperature could be found, thereby amplifying any warming signal that may exist. Evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations is presented. Since global thunderstorm activity is also well correlated with the earth's ionospheric potential, it appears that variations of ionospheric potential, that can be measured at a single location, may be able to supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The observations presented enable a prediction that a 1 percent increase in global surface temperatures may result in a 20 percent increase in ionospheric potential.

Predicting the global spread range via small subnetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jiachen; Dong, Junyou; Ma, Xiao; Feng, Ling; Hu, Yanqing

2017-04-01

Modern online social network platforms are replacing traditional media due to their effectiveness in both spreading information and communicating opinions. One of the key problems in these online platforms is to predict the global spread range of any given information. Due to its gigantic size as well as time-varying dynamics, an online social network's global structure, however, is usually inaccessible to most researchers. Thus, it raises the very important issue of how to use solely small subnetworks to predict the global influence. In this paper, based on percolation theory, we show that the global spread range can be predicted well from only two small subnetworks. We test our methods in an artificial network and three empirical online social networks, such as the full Sina Weibo network with 99546027 nodes.

Global optical model potential for A=3 projectiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, D. Y.; Roussel-Chomaz, P.; Savajols, H.; Varner, R. L.; Wolski, R.

2009-02-01

A global optical model potential (GDP08) for He3 projectiles has been obtained by simultaneously fitting the elastic scattering data of He3 from targets of 40⩽AT⩽209 at incident energies of 30⩽Einc⩽217 MeV. Uncertainties and correlation coefficients between the global potential parameters were obtained by using the bootstrap statistical method. GDP08 was found to satisfactorily account for the elastic scattering of H3 as well, which makes it a global optical potential for the A=3 nuclei. Optical model calculations using the GDP08 global potential are compared with the experimental angular distributions of differential cross sections for He3-nucleus and H3-nucleus scattering from different targets of 6⩽AT⩽232 at incident energies of 4⩽Einc⩽450 MeV. The optical potential for the doubly-magic nucleus Ca40, the low-energy correction to the real potential for nuclei with 58≲AT≲120 at Einc<30 MeV, the comparison with double-folding model calculations and the CH89 potential, and the spin-orbit potential parameters are discussed.

Biophysically based mathematical modeling of interstitial cells of Cajal slow wave activity generated from a discrete unitary potential basis.

PubMed

Faville, R A; Pullan, A J; Sanders, K M; Koh, S D; Lloyd, C M; Smith, N P

2009-06-17

Spontaneously rhythmic pacemaker activity produced by interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC) is the result of the entrainment of unitary potential depolarizations generated at intracellular sites termed pacemaker units. In this study, we present a mathematical modeling framework that quantitatively represents the transmembrane ion flows and intracellular Ca2+ dynamics from a single ICC operating over the physiological membrane potential range. The mathematical model presented here extends our recently developed biophysically based pacemaker unit modeling framework by including mechanisms necessary for coordinating unitary potential events, such as a T-Type Ca2+ current, Vm-dependent K+ currents, and global Ca2+ diffusion. Model simulations produce spontaneously rhythmic slow wave depolarizations with an amplitude of 65 mV at a frequency of 17.4 cpm. Our model predicts that activity at the spatial scale of the pacemaker unit is fundamental for ICC slow wave generation, and Ca2+ influx from activation of the T-Type Ca2+ current is required for unitary potential entrainment. These results suggest that intracellular Ca2+ levels, particularly in the region local to the mitochondria and endoplasmic reticulum, significantly influence pacing frequency and synchronization of pacemaker unit discharge. Moreover, numerical investigations show that our ICC model is capable of qualitatively replicating a wide range of experimental observations.

How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian Tree Sparrows Passer montanus in North America?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jim; Jarnevich, Catherine; Young, Nick; Newman, Greg; Stohlgren, Thomas

2011-01-01

Habitat suitability models have been used to predict the present and future potential distribution of a variety of species. Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus, native to Eurasia, have established populations in other parts of the world. In North America, their current distribution is limited to a relatively small region around its original introduction to St. Louis, Missouri. We combined data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with current and future climate data to create habitat suitability models using Maxent for this species. Under projected climate change scenarios, our models show that the distribution and range of the Eurasian tree sparrow could increase as far as the Pacific Northwest and Newfoundland. This is potentially important information for prioritizing the management and control of this non-native species.

Crustal deformation at very long baseline interferometry sites due to seasonal air-mass and ground water variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolz, A.; Larden, D. R.

1980-01-01

The seasonal deformation normal to the Earth's surface was calculated at stations involved or interested in very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) geodesy and at hypothetical sites in Australia and Brazil using global atmospheric pressure data, values for groundwater storage, and load Love numbers deduced from current Earth models. It was found that the annual range of deformation approached the centimeter level measuring potential of the VLBI technqiue at Greenbank, Haystack, and the Brazil site.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Aridity under conditions of increased CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Roderick, Micheal L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-04-01

A string of recent of studies led to the wide-held assumption that aridity will increase under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming. Such results generally build upon analyses of changes in the 'aridity index' (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) and can be described as a direct thermodynamic effect on atmospheric water demand due to increasing temperatures. However, there is widespread evidence that contradicts the 'warmer is more arid' interpretation, leading to the 'global aridity paradox' (Roderick et al. 2015, WRR). Here we provide a comprehensive assessment of modeled changes in a broad set of dryness metrics (primarily based on a range of measures of water availability) over a large range of realistic atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We use an ensemble of simulations from of state-of-the-art climate models to analyse both equilibrium climate experiments and transient historical simulations and future projections. Our results show that dryness is, under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, generally decreasing at global scales. At regional scales we do, however, identify areas that undergo changes towards drier conditions, located primarily in subtropical climate regions and the Amazon Basin. Nonetheless, the majority of regions, especially in tropical and mid- to northern high latitudes areas, display wetting conditions in a warming world. Our results contradict previous findings and highlight the need to comprehensively assess all aspects of changes in hydroclimatological conditions at the land surface. Roderick, M. L., P. Greve, and G. D. Farquhar (2015), On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5450-5463

Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigham, L. W.

2011-12-01

Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Few, Sheridan; Gambhir, Ajay; Napp, Tamaryn; ...

2017-01-27

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energymore » system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less

Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature.

PubMed

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S E; Gibson, P B

2017-09-25

The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5-2 °C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4-34 extra days per season are projected per °C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 5 °C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5-1.5 °C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2-3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2-10 days/°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Few, Sheridan; Gambhir, Ajay; Napp, Tamaryn

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energymore » system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less

High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Biemans, Hester; Niessink, Robin

2017-10-01

Hydropower is the most important renewable energy source to date, providing over 72% of all renewable electricity globally. Yet, only limited information is available on the global potential supply of hydropower and the associated costs. Here we provide a high-resolution assessment of the technical and economic potential of hydropower at a near-global scale. Using 15"×15" discharge and 3"×3" digital elevation maps, we built virtual hydropower installations at >3.8 million sites across the globe and calculated their potential using cost optimization methods. This way we identified over 60,000 suitable sites, which together represent a remaining global potential of 9.49 PWh yr-1 below US0.50 kWh-1. The largest remaining potential is found in Asia Pacific (39%), South America (25%) and Africa (24%), of which a large part can be produced at low cost (

Contemporary tectonic deformation of the Basin and Range province, western United States: 10 years of observation with the Global Positioning System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammond, W.C.; Thatcher, W.

2004-01-01

We have estimated patterns and rates of crustal movement across 800 km of the Basin and Range at ???39?? north latitude with Global Positioning System surveys in 1992, 1996, 1998, and 2002. The total rate of motion tangent to the small circle around the Pacific-North America pole of rotation is 10.4 ?? 1.0 mm/yr, and motion normal to this small circle is 3.9 ?? 0.9 mm/yr compared to the east end of our network. On the Colorado Plateau the east end of our network moves by ???1-2 mm/yr westerly with respect to North America. Transitions in strain rates delimit six major tectonic domains within the province. These deformation zones coincide with areas of modern seismicity and are, from east to west, (1) east-west extension in the Wasatch Fault zone, (2) low rate east-west extension centered near the Nevada-Utah border, (3) low rate east-west contraction between 114.7??W and 117.9??W, (4) extension normal to and strike-slip motion across the N10??E striking Central Nevada Seismic Zone, (5) right lateral simple shear oriented N13??W inside the Walker Lane Belt, and (6) shear plus extension near the Sierra Nevada frontal faults. Concentration of shear and dilatational deformation across the three westernmost zones suggests that the Walker Lane Belt lithosphere is rheologically weak. However, we show that linear gradients in viscosity and gravitational potential energy can also effectively concentrate deformation. In the Basin and Range, gradients in gravitational potential are spatially anticorrelated with dilatational strain rates, consistent with the presence of horizontal variations in viscosity of the lithosphere.

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Ecophysiology of avian migration in the face of current global hazards

PubMed Central

Klaassen, Marcel; Hoye, Bethany J.; Nolet, Bart A.; Buttemer, William A.

2012-01-01

Long-distance migratory birds are often considered extreme athletes, possessing a range of traits that approach the physiological limits of vertebrate design. In addition, their movements must be carefully timed to ensure that they obtain resources of sufficient quantity and quality to satisfy their high-energy needs. Migratory birds may therefore be particularly vulnerable to global change processes that are projected to alter the quality and quantity of resource availability. Because long-distance flight requires high and sustained aerobic capacity, even minor decreases in vitality can have large negative consequences for migrants. In the light of this, we assess how current global change processes may affect the ability of birds to meet the physiological demands of migration, and suggest areas where avian physiologists may help to identify potential hazards. Predicting the consequences of global change scenarios on migrant species requires (i) reconciliation of empirical and theoretical studies of avian flight physiology; (ii) an understanding of the effects of food quality, toxicants and disease on migrant performance; and (iii) mechanistic models that integrate abiotic and biotic factors to predict migratory behaviour. Critically, a multi-dimensional concept of vitality would greatly facilitate evaluation of the impact of various global change processes on the population dynamics of migratory birds. PMID:22566678

Towards Remotely Sensed Composite Global Drought Risk Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dercas, Nicholas; Dalezios, Nicolas

2015-04-01

Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment. Droughts may have the origin on precipitation deficits, which sequentially and by considering different time and space scales may impact soil moisture, plant wilting, stream flow, wildfire, ground water levels, famine and social impacts. There is a need to monitor drought even at a global scale. Key variables for monitoring drought include climate data, soil moisture, stream flow, ground water, reservoir and lake levels, snow pack, short-medium-long range forecasts, vegetation health and fire danger. However, there is no single definition of drought and there are different drought indicators and indices even for each drought type. There are already four operational global drought risk monitoring systems, namely the U.S. Drought Monitor, the European Drought Observatory (EDO), the African and the Australian systems, respectively. These systems require further research to improve the level of accuracy, the time and space scales, to consider all types of drought and to achieve operational efficiency, eventually. This paper attempts to contribute to the above mentioned objectives. Based on a similar general methodology, the multi-indicator approach is considered. This has resulted from previous research in the Mediterranean region, an agriculturally vulnerable region, using several drought indices separately, namely RDI and VHI. The proposed scheme attempts to consider different space scaling based on agroclimatic zoning through remotely sensed techniques and several indices. Needless to say, the agroclimatic potential of agricultural areas has to be assessed in order to achieve sustainable and efficient use of natural resources in combination with production maximization. Similarly, the time scale is also considered by addressing drought-related impacts affected by precipitation deficits on time scales ranging from a few days to a few months, such as non-irrigated agriculture, topsoil moisture, wildfire danger, range and pasture conditions and unregulated stream flows. Keywords Remote sensing; Composite Drought Indicators; Global Drought Risk Monitoring.

Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate.

PubMed

Frank, David C; Esper, Jan; Raible, Christoph C; Büntgen, Ulf; Trouet, Valerie; Stocker, Benjamin; Joos, Fortunat

2010-01-28

The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth's orbital variations, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO(2) into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed gamma), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections. Here we quantify the median gamma as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO(2) data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for gamma on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of >200,000 members, quantification of gamma is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of gamma calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that gamma is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range. Our results are incompatibly lower (P < 0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of approximately 40 p.p.m.v. CO(2) per degrees C (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest approximately 80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Yuyu; Smith, Steven J.; Zhao, Kaiguang

Urbanization, one of the major human induced land-cover and land-use changes, has a profound impact on the Earth system including biodiversity, the cycling of water and carbon and exchange of energy and water between Earth’s surface and atmosphere, all affecting weather and climate. Accurate information on urban areas and their spatial distribution at the regional and global scales is important for scientific understanding of their contribution to the changing Earth system, and for practical management and policy decisions. We developed a method to map the urban extent from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable-light data atmore » the global level and derived a new global map of 1-km urban extent for year 2000. Based on this map, we found that globally, urban land area is about 0.5% of total land area but ranges widely at regional level from 0.1% in Oceania to 2.3% in Europe. At the country level, urban land area varies from lower than 0.01% to higher than 10%, but is lower than 1% for most (70%) countries. Urbanization follows land mass distribution, as anticipated, with the highest concentration found between 30°N to 45°N latitude and the largest longitudinal peak around 80°W. Based on a sensitivity analysis and comparison with other global urban area products, we found that our global product of urban area provides a reliable estimate of global urban areas and offer the potential of capturing more accurately their spatial and temporal dynamics.« less

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning.

Tropical fishes dominate temperate reef fish communities within western Japan.

PubMed

Nakamura, Yohei; Feary, David A; Kanda, Masaru; Yamaoka, Kosaku

2013-01-01

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008-2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources.

Tropical Fishes Dominate Temperate Reef Fish Communities within Western Japan

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Yohei; Feary, David A.; Kanda, Masaru; Yamaoka, Kosaku

2013-01-01

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008–2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources. PMID:24312528

Rewilding the world's large carnivores.

PubMed

Wolf, Christopher; Ripple, William J

2018-03-01

Earth's terrestrial large carnivores form a highly endangered group of species with unique conservation challenges. The majority of these species have experienced major geographical range contractions, which puts many of them at high risk of extinction or of becoming ecologically ineffective. As a result of these range contractions and the associated loss of intact predator guilds, the ecological effects of these species are now far less widespread and common, with inevitable consequences for ecosystem function. Rewilding-which includes reintroducing species into portions of their former ranges-is an important carnivore conservation tool and means for restoring top-down ecological regulation. We conducted a global analysis of potential reintroduction areas. We first considered protected areas where one or more large carnivore species have been extirpated, identifying a total of 130 protected areas that may be most suitable for carnivore reintroduction. These protected areas include sites in every major world region, and are most commonly found in Mongolia ( n  = 13), Canada ( n  = 11), Thailand ( n  = 9), Namibia ( n  = 6), Indonesia ( n  = 6) and Australia ( n  = 6). We considered the sizes of protected areas, their levels of protection, the extent of human impacts within and around the protected areas, and the status of prey species in the protected areas. Finally, we used the 'last of the wild' approach to identify contiguous low human footprint regions within the former ranges of each species, identifying an additional 150 areas which could be the focus of conservation efforts to create conditions conducive to reintroductions. These low footprint regions were most commonly found in the USA ( n  = 14), Russia ( n  = 14), Canada ( n  = 10), China ( n  = 9) and Mauritania ( n  = 8). Together, our results show the global-scale potential for carnivore rewilding projects to both conserve these species and provide critical ecological and social benefits.

Unifying viral genetics and human transportation data to predict the global transmission dynamics of human influenza H3N2.

PubMed

Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Bedford, Trevor; Faria, Nuno; Bielejec, Filip; Baele, Guy; Russell, Colin A; Smith, Derek J; Pybus, Oliver G; Brockmann, Dirk; Suchard, Marc A

2014-02-01

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.

Retrieval of BRDF/Albedo by the Angular and Spectral Kernel Driven Model with Global Soil and Leaf Optical Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Wen, J.; Xiao, Q.; You, D.

2016-12-01

Operational algorithms for land surface BRDF/Albedo products are mainly developed from kernel-driven model, combining atmospherically corrected, multidate, multiband surface reflectance to extract BRDF parameters. The Angular and Spectral Kernel Driven model (ASK model), which incorporates the component spectra as a priori knowledge, provides a potential way to make full use of the multi-sensor data with multispectral information and accumulated observations. However, the ASK model is still not feasible for global BRDF/Albedo inversions due to the lack of sufficient field measurements of component spectra at the large scale. This research outlines a parameterization scheme on the component spectra for global scale BRDF/Albedo inversions in the frame of ASK. The parameter γ(λ) can be derived from the ratio of the leaf reflectance and soil reflectance, supported by globally distributed soil spectral library, ANGERS and LOPEX leaf optical properties database. To consider the intrinsic variability in both the land cover and spectral dimension, the mean and standard deviation of γ(λ) for 28 soil units and 4 leaf types in seven MODIS bands were calculated, with a world soil map used for global BRDF/Albedo products retrieval. Compared to the retrievals from BRF datasets simulated by the PROSAIL model, ASK model shows an acceptable accuracy on the parameterization strategy, with the RMSE 0.007 higher at most than inversion by true component spectra. The results indicate that the classification on ratio contributed to capture the spectral characteristics in BBRDF/Albedo retrieval, whereas the ratio range should be controlled within 8% in each band. Ground-based measurements in Heihe river basin were used to validate the accuracy of the improved ASK model, and the generated broadband albedo products shows good agreement with in situ data, which suggests that the improvement of the component spectra on the ASK model has potential for global scale BRDF/Albedo inversions.

Japanese encephalitis virus invasion of cell: allies and alleys.

PubMed

Nain, Minu; Abdin, Malik Z; Kalia, Manjula; Vrati, Sudhanshu

2016-03-01

The mosquito-borne flavivirus, Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), is the leading cause of virus-induced encephalitis globally and a major public health concern of several countries in Southeast Asia, with the potential to become a global pathogen. The virus is neurotropic, and the disease ranges from mild fever to severe hemorrhagic and encephalitic manifestations and death. The early steps of the virus life cycle, binding, and entry into the cell are crucial determinants of infection and are potential targets for the development of antiviral therapies. JEV can infect multiple cell types; however, the key receptor molecule(s) still remains elusive. JEV also has the capacity to utilize multiple endocytic pathways for entry into cells of different lineages. This review not only gives a comprehensive update on what is known about the virus attachment and receptor system (allies) and the endocytic pathways (alleys) exploited by the virus to gain entry into the cell and establish infection but also discusses crucial unresolved issues. We also highlight common themes and key differences between JEV and other flaviviruses in these contexts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spectroscopic studies and quantum chemical investigations of (3,4-dimethoxybenzylidene) propanedinitrile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Ujval; Kumar, Vinay; Singh, Vivek K.; Kant, Rajni; Khajuria, Yugal

2015-04-01

The Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR), Ultra-Violet Visible (UV-Vis) spectroscopy and Thermogravimetric (TG) analysis of (3,4-dimethoxybenzylidene) propanedinitrile have been carried out and investigated using quantum chemical calculations. The molecular geometry, harmonic vibrational frequencies, Mulliken charges, natural atomic charges and thermodynamic properties in the ground state have been investigated by using Hartree Fock Theory (HF) and Density Functional Theory (DFT) using B3LYP functional with 6-311G(d,p) basis set. Both HF and DFT methods yield good agreement with the experimental data. Vibrational modes are assigned with the help of Vibrational Energy Distribution Analysis (VEDA) program. UV-Visible spectrum was recorded in the spectral range of 190-800 nm and the results are compared with the calculated values using TD-DFT approach. Stability of the molecule arising from hyperconjugative interactions, charge delocalization have been analyzed using natural bond orbital (NBO) analysis. The results obtained from the studies of Highest Occupied Molecular Orbital (HOMO) and Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital (LUMO) are used to calculate molecular parameters like ionization potential, electron affinity, global hardness, electron chemical potential and global electrophilicity.

Early warning smartphone diagnostics for water security and analysis using real-time pH mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, Md. Arafat; Canning, John; Ast, Sandra; Rutledge, Peter J.; Jamalipour, Abbas

2015-12-01

Early detection of environmental disruption, unintentional or otherwise, is increasingly desired to ensure hazard minimization in many settings. Here, using a field-portable, smartphone fluorimeter to assess water quality based on the pH response of a designer probe, a map of pH of public tap water sites has been obtained. A custom designed Android application digitally processed and mapped the results utilizing the global positioning system (GPS) service of the smartphone. The map generated indicates no disruption in pH for all sites measured, and all the data are assessed to fall inside the upper limit of local government regulations, consistent with authority reported measurements. This implementation demonstrates a new security concept: network environmental forensics utilizing the potential of novel smartgrid analysis with wireless sensors for the detection of potential disruption to water quality at any point in the city. This concept is applicable across all smartgrid strategies within the next generation of the Internet of Things and can be extended on national and global scales to address a range of target analytes, both chemical and biological.

Global warming potential estimates for the C1-C3 hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) included in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papanastasiou, Dimitrios K.; Beltrone, Allison; Marshall, Paul; Burkholder, James B.

2018-05-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases that are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, the majority of the 274 HCFCs included in Annex C of the protocol do not have reported global warming potentials (GWPs) which are used to guide the phaseout of HCFCs and the future phase down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In this study, GWPs for all C1-C3 HCFCs included in Annex C are reported based on estimated atmospheric lifetimes and theoretical methods used to calculate infrared absorption spectra. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated from a structure activity relationship (SAR) for OH radical reactivity and estimated O(1D) reactivity and UV photolysis loss processes. The C1-C3 HCFCs display a wide range of lifetimes (0.3 to 62 years) and GWPs (5 to 5330, 100-year time horizon) dependent on their molecular structure and the H-atom content of the individual HCFC. The results from this study provide estimated policy-relevant GWP metrics for the HCFCs included in the Montreal Protocol in the absence of experimentally derived metrics.

Habitat-specific differences alter traditional biogeographic patterns of life history in a climate-change induced range expansion.

PubMed

Riley, Megan E; Griffen, Blaine D

2017-01-01

Range shifts and expansions resulting from global climate change have the potential to create novel communities with unique plant-animal interactions. Organisms expanding their range into novel biotic and abiotic environments may encounter selection pressures that alter traditional biogeographic patterns of life history traits. Here, we used field surveys to examine latitudinal patterns of life history traits in a broadly distributed ectotherm (mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii) that has recently experienced a climate change-induced range expansion into a novel habitat type. Additionally, we conducted laboratory and field experiments to investigate characteristics associated with these life history traits (e.g. fecundity, offspring quality, and potential selection pressures). We compared these characteristics in native mangrove habitats in which the species has historically dwelled and novel salt marsh habitats into which the species has recently expanded its range. Consistent with traditional biogeographic concepts (i.e. Bergmann's clines), size at maturity and mean body size of reproductive females increased with latitude within the native habitat. However, they decreased significantly in novel habitats at the highest latitudes of the species' range, which was consistent with habitat-specific differences in both biotic (predation) and abiotic (temperature) selection pressures. Although initial maternal investment (egg volume and weight) did not differ between habitats, fecundity was lower in novel habitats as a result of differences in size at reproduction. Offspring quality, as measured by larval starvation resistance, was likewise diminished in novel habitats relative to native habitats. These differences in offspring quality may have enduring consequences for species success and persistence in novel habitats. Life history characteristics such as those investigated here are fundamental organismal traits; consequently, understanding the potential impacts of climate change responses on latitudinal patterns of these traits is key to understanding climate change impacts on natural systems.

Uncertainty in temperature response of current consumption-based emissions estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karstensen, J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.

2015-05-01

Several studies have connected emissions of greenhouse gases to economic and trade data to quantify the causal chain from consumption to emissions and climate change. These studies usually combine data and models originating from different sources, making it difficult to estimate uncertainties along the entire causal chain. We estimate uncertainties in economic data, multi-pollutant emission statistics, and metric parameters, and use Monte Carlo analysis to quantify contributions to uncertainty and to determine how uncertainty propagates to estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions for the year 2007. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants included, the metric and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are largely dominated by the climate sensitivity and the parameters associated with the warming effects of CO2. Based on our assumptions, which exclude correlations in the economic data, the uncertainty in the economic data appears to have a relatively small impact on uncertainty at the national level in comparison to emissions and metric uncertainty. Much higher uncertainties are found at the sectoral level. Our results suggest that consumption-based national emissions are not significantly more uncertain than the corresponding production-based emissions since the largest uncertainties are due to metric and emissions which affect both perspectives equally. The two perspectives exhibit different sectoral uncertainties, due to changes of pollutant compositions. We find global sectoral consumption uncertainties in the range of ±10 to ±27 % using the Global Temperature Potential with a 50-year time horizon, with metric uncertainties dominating. National-level uncertainties are similar in both perspectives due to the dominance of CO2 over other pollutants. The consumption emissions of the top 10 emitting regions have a broad uncertainty range of ±9 to ±25 %, with metric and emission uncertainties contributing similarly. The absolute global temperature potential (AGTP) with a 50-year time horizon has much higher uncertainties, with considerable uncertainty overlap for regions and sectors, indicating that the ranking of countries is uncertain.

What is the cost of a life in a disaster? - Examples, Practice and Global Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann; Khazai, Bijan

2015-04-01

An analysis is presented based on historical evidence and global exposure metrics using the CATDAT Socioeconomic databases, in order to create a global distribution of the cost of life in a disaster using various metrics. Casualty insurance models require a value of life & mitigation and cost-benefit studies require a value of life in order to make decisions and set premiums. Although this is a contentious concept, there are two general approaches to human life costing: the first is based on human capital which looks at the production capacity and potential output as a proxy for future earning; the second looks at willingness to pay which estimates people's value on reducing risk and compensation payouts. A combination approach is used. For each of the 245 nations, a value of life is estimated using the following parameters:- (1) Age of people in a country using the life expectancy and distribution data in CATDAT (2) Output of the economy and wage distribution (3) Household and community interactions (4) Lost quality of life The range of statistical life costs are examined globally from different sources, with the range of a life value being from 10,000 up to in the order of 10 million between different countries. The difference of the cost for a fatality vs. that of a severe injury is also discussed with a severe injury often having higher costs than a fatality for loss purposes. The losses in terms of historical disasters are looked at and examined with the percentage of life cost shown as a proportion of total losses. The losses of a future major earthquake in a low seismicity region show some of the largest potential life cost losses with that of a M6.8 in Adelaide, Australia; having around 160 billion in life costs (25,000 deaths, 15,000 severe injuries). This study has benefits post-disaster for quantification of human capital losses in major disasters, and pre-disaster for the analysis of insurance and mitigation options.

Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

PubMed Central

Leta, Samson; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; De Clercq, Eva M.; Amenu, Kebede; Revie, Crawford W.; Kraemer, Moritz U G

2018-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. Methods Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. Results Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. Conclusions With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases. PMID:29196275

Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Leta, Samson; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; De Clercq, Eva M; Amenu, Kebede; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Revie, Crawford W

2018-02-01

The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment strategies as nanomaterials transition into commercial applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, Mira S.; Gurian, Patrick L.

2012-03-01

Commercial applications of nanomaterials are rapidly emerging in the marketplace. The environmental and human health risks of many nanomaterials remain unknown, and prioritizing how to efficiently assess their risks is essential. As nanomaterials are incorporated into a broader range of commercial products, their potential for environmental release and human exposure not only increases, but also becomes more difficult to model accurately. Emphasis may first be placed on estimating potential environmental exposure based on pertinent physical properties of the nanomaterials. Given that the greatest potential for global environmental impacts results from nanomaterials that are both persistent and toxic, this paper advocates screening first for persistence since it is easier to assess than toxicity. For materials that show potential for persistence, a higher burden of proof of their non-toxicity is suggested before they enter the commercial marketplace whereas a lower burden of proof may be acceptable for nanomaterials that are less persistent.

Pilot Study on Potential Impacts of Fisheries-Induced Changes in Zooplankton Mortality on Marine Biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzlaff, Julia; Oschlies, Andreas

2017-11-01

In this pilot study we link the yield of industrial fisheries to changes in the zooplankton mortality in an idealized way accounting for different target species (planktivorous fish—decreased zooplankton mortality; large predators—increased zooplankton mortality). This indirect approach is used in a global coupled biogeochemistry circulation model to estimate the range of the potential impact of industrial fisheries on marine biogeochemistry. The simulated globally integrated response on phytoplankton and primary production is in line with expectations—a high (low) zooplankton mortality results in a decrease (increase) of zooplankton and an increase (decrease) of phytoplankton. In contrast, the local response of zooplankton and phytoplankton depends on the region under consideration: In nutrient-limited regions, an increase (decrease) in zooplankton mortality leads to a decrease (increase) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, in nutrient-replete regions, such as upwelling regions, we find an opposing response: an increase (decrease) of the zooplankton mortality leads to an increase (decrease) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. The results are further evaluated by relating the potential fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality to those driven by CO2 emissions in a business-as-usual 21st century emission scenario. In our idealized case, the potential fisheries-induced impact can be of similar size as warming-induced changes in marine biogeochemistry.

A global map of urban extent from nightlights

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Yuyu; Smith, Steven J.; Zhao, Kaiguang; ...

2015-05-13

Urbanization, one of the major human induced land-cover and land-use changes, has a profound impact on the Earth system including biodiversity, the cycling of water and carbon and exchange of energy and water between Earth’s surface and atmosphere, all affecting weather and climate. Accurate information on urban areas and their spatial distribution at the regional and global scales is important for scientific understanding of their contribution to the changing Earth system, and for practical management and policy decisions. We developed a method to map the urban extent from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable-light data atmore » the global level and derived a new global map of 1-km urban extent for year 2000. Based on this map, we found that globally, urban land area is about 0.5% of total land area but ranges widely at regional level from 0.1% in Oceania to 2.3% in Europe. At the country level, urban land area varies from lower than 0.01% to higher than 10%, but is lower than 1% for most (70%) countries. Urbanization follows land mass distribution, as anticipated, with the highest concentration found between 30°N to 45°N latitude and the largest longitudinal peak around 80°W. Based on a sensitivity analysis and comparison with other global urban area products, we found that our global product of urban area provides a reliable estimate of global urban areas and offer the potential of capturing more accurately their spatial and temporal dynamics.« less

Waste dumpsites and public health: a case for lead exposure in Zimbabwe and potential global implications.

PubMed

Tongesayi, Tsanangurayi; Kugara, Jameson; Tongesayi, Sunungurai

2018-02-01

Most waste sites in Zimbabwe are not sanitary landfills but open dumps that indiscriminately receive waste from municipalities, industries, commercial establishments, and social services establishments. People, including children, who eke out a living through scavenging the dumps expose themselves to environmental pollutants at the dumps via inadvertent ingestion and inhalation of contaminated dust, and dermal absorption. The public is potentially being exposed to a slew of the pollutants via air, water, and food, all contaminated by uncontrolled leachates and aerially deposited dust and particulates from the sites. One of the unfortunate consequences of globalization is the sharing of contaminated food and the associated disease burdens; hence, regional contamination can have global impacts. We analyzed the levels of lead at two waste sites in Zimbabwe to assess the daily exposure levels of Pb to children and adults who scavenge the sites as well as determine levels of the heavy metal that are potentially contaminating air, water, soils, and food in the country. Levels of Pb ranged from 23,000 to 14,600,000 µg/kg at one of the sites and from 30,000 to 1,800,000 µg/kg at the other. Inadvertent daily exposure amounts that were calculated by assuming an inadvertent daily ingestion of 20-500 mg of soil/dust were mostly higher than the provisional tolerable daily intake established by the World Health Organization for infants, children, and adults. The XRF measurements were validated using certified reference samples, 2710a (Montana soil) and 2781 (domestic sludge), from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Climate Change, Habitat Loss, Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in Mediterranean Ecosystems Worldwide

PubMed Central

Klausmeyer, Kirk R.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

2009-01-01

Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21st century in Chile will range from 129–153% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77–49% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50–60% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29–31%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the mediterranean biome. PMID:19641600

Nitrogen in rock: Occurrences and biogeochemical implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holloway, J.M.; Dahlgren, R.A.

2002-01-01

There is a growing interest in the role of bedrock in global nitrogen cycling and potential for increased ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts in terrains with elevated background nitrogen concentrations. Nitrogen-bearing rocks are globally distributed and comprise a potentially large pool of nitrogen in nutrient cycling that is frequently neglected because of a lack of routine analytical methods for quantification. Nitrogen in rock originates as organically bound nitrogen associated with sediment, or in thermal waters representing a mixture of sedimentary, mantle, and meteoric sources of nitrogen. Rock nitrogen concentrations range from trace levels (>200 mg N kg -1) in granites to ecologically significant concentrations exceeding 1000 mg N kg -1 in some sedimentary and metasedimentary rocks. Nitrate deposits accumulated in arid and semi-arid regions are also a large potential pool. Nitrogen in rock has a potentially significant impact on localized nitrogen cycles. Elevated nitrogen concentrations in water and soil have been attributed to weathering of bedrock nitrogen. In some environments, nitrogen released from bedrock may contribute to nitrogen saturation of terrestrial ecosystems (more nitrogen available than required by biota). Nitrogen saturation results in leaching of nitrate to surface and groundwaters, and, where soils are formed from ammonium-rich bedrock, the oxidation of ammonium to nitrate may result in soil acidification, inhibiting revegetation in certain ecosystems. Collectively, studies presented in this article reveal that geologic nitrogen may be a large and reactive pool with potential for amplification of human impacts on nitrogen cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

The ALE/GAGE/AGAGE Network (DB1001)

DOE Data Explorer

Prinn, Ronald G. [MIT, Center for Global Change Science; Weiss, Ray F. [University of California, San Diego; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Krummel, Paul B. [CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Cape Grim; O'Doherty, Simon [University of Bristol, Barbados and Mace Head Stations; Fraser, Paul [CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Muhle, Jens [UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Cape Matatula Station; Reimann, Stefan [Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Research (EMPA); Jungfraujoch Station; Vollmer, Martin [Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Research (EMPA); Jungfraujoch Station; Simmonds, Peter G. [University of Bristol, Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group; Mace Head Station; Malone, Michela [University of Urbino; Monte Cimone Station; Arduini, Jgor [University of Urbino; Monte Cimone Station; Lunder, Chris [Norwegian Institute for Air Research; Ny Alesund Station; Hermansen, Ove [Norwegian Inst. for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller (Norway); Ny Alesund Station; Schmidbauer, Norbert [Norwegian Inst. for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller (Norway); Global Network; Young, Dickon [University of Bristol; Ragged Point Station; Wang, Hsiang J. (Ray) [Geogia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Global Network; Huang, Jin; Rigby, Matthew [University of Bristol; Global Network; Harth, Chris [UCSD, Scripps Institutioon of Oceanography; Global Network; Salameh, Peter [UCSD, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Global Network; Spain, Gerard [National University of Ireland; Global Network; Steele, Paul [CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Global Network; Arnold, Tim; Kim, Jooil [UCSD, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Global Network; Derek, Nada; mitrevski, Blagoj; Langenfelds, Ray

2008-01-01

In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: http://agage.eas.gatech.edu/instruments-gcms-medusa.htm.

Land-use protection for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Müller, Christoph; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Dietrich, Jan Philipp

2014-12-01

Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon emissions and contributes substantially to global warming. Therefore, mechanisms that aim to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation are widely discussed. A central challenge is the avoidance of international carbon leakage if forest conservation is not implemented globally. Here, we show that forest conservation schemes, even if implemented globally, could lead to another type of carbon leakage by driving cropland expansion in non-forested areas that are not subject to forest conservation schemes (non-forest leakage). These areas have a smaller, but still considerable potential to store carbon. We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2 until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore, abandonment of agricultural land and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hampered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1994-01-01

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Dark matter and global symmetries

DOE PAGES

Mambrini, Yann; Profumo, Stefano; Queiroz, Farinaldo S.

2016-08-03

General considerations in general relativity and quantum mechanics are known to potentially rule out continuous global symmetries in the context of any consistent theory of quantum gravity. Assuming the validity of such considerations, we derive stringent bounds from gamma-ray, X-ray, cosmic-ray, neutrino, and CMB data on models that invoke global symmetries to stabilize the dark matter particle. We compute up-to-date, robust model-independent limits on the dark matter lifetime for a variety of Planck-scale suppressed dimension-five effective operators. We then specialize our analysis and apply our bounds to specific models including the Two-Higgs-Doublet, Left-Right, Singlet Fermionic, Zee-Babu, 3-3-1 and Radiative See-Sawmore » models. Here, assuming that (i) global symmetries are broken at the Planck scale, that (ii) the non-renormalizable operators mediating dark matter decay have O(1) couplings, that (iii) the dark matter is a singlet field, and that (iv) the dark matter density distribution is well described by a NFW profile, we are able to rule out fermionic, vector, and scalar dark matter candidates across a broad mass range (keV-TeV), including the WIMP regime« less

Towards a global assessment of pyrogenic carbon from vegetation fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittmar, Thorsten; Santín, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan; Kane, Evan; Masiello, Caroline; Ohlson, Mikael; De La Rosa, Jose Maria; Preston, Caroline

2016-04-01

The production of pyrogenic carbon (PyC; a continuum of organic carbon (C) ranging from partially charred biomass and charcoal to soot) is a widely acknowledged C sink, with the latest estimates indicating that ~50% of the PyC produced by vegetation fires potentially sequesters C over centuries. Nevertheless, the quantitative importance of PyC in the global C balance remains contentious, and therefore, PyC is rarely considered in global C cycle and climate studies. Here we examine the robustness of existing evidence and identify the main research gaps in the production, fluxes and fate of PyC from vegetation fires. Much of the previous work on PyC production has focused on selected components of total PyC generated in vegetation fires, likely leading to underestimates. We suggest that global PyC production could be in the range of 116-385 Tg C per year, that is ~0.2-0.6% of the annual terrestrial net primary production. According to our estimations, atmospheric emissions of soot/black C might be a smaller fraction of total PyC (<2%) than previously reported. Research on the fate of PyC in the environment has mainly focused on its degradation pathways, and its accumulation and resilience either in situ (surface soils) or in ultimate sinks (marine sediments). Off-site transport, transformation and PyC storage in intermediate pools are often overlooked, which could explain the fate of a substantial fraction of the PyC mobilized annually. Rivers carry about 25-28 Tg dissolved PyC per year into the ocean where it accumulates in dissolved form over ten-thousands of year to one of the largest PyC pool on Earth. The riverine flux of suspended (particulate) PyC is largely unconstrained to date. We propose new research directions addressing gaps in the global PyC cycle to fully understand the importance of the products of burning in global C cycle dynamics. This presentation is based largely on a recent review by the same group of authors (Santín et al., 2016, Global Change Biology 22, 76-91, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12985).

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

2008-01-01

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

40 CFR 98.3 - What are the general monitoring, reporting, recordkeeping and verification requirements of this...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... request under this paragraph is approved by the Administrator. (k) Revised global warming potentials and... or more compounds in Table A-1 of this subpart, Global Warming Potentials, is not required to submit... to Table A-1 of this subpart, Global Warming Potentials. (1) Best available monitoring methods. From...

Challenges and opportunities for hydrogen production from microalgae.

PubMed

Oey, Melanie; Sawyer, Anne Linda; Ross, Ian Lawrence; Hankamer, Ben

2016-07-01

The global population is predicted to increase from ~7.3 billion to over 9 billion people by 2050. Together with rising economic growth, this is forecast to result in a 50% increase in fuel demand, which will have to be met while reducing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions by 50-80% to maintain social, political, energy and climate security. This tension between rising fuel demand and the requirement for rapid global decarbonization highlights the need to fast-track the coordinated development and deployment of efficient cost-effective renewable technologies for the production of CO2 neutral energy. Currently, only 20% of global energy is provided as electricity, while 80% is provided as fuel. Hydrogen (H2 ) is the most advanced CO2 -free fuel and provides a 'common' energy currency as it can be produced via a range of renewable technologies, including photovoltaic (PV), wind, wave and biological systems such as microalgae, to power the next generation of H2 fuel cells. Microalgae production systems for carbon-based fuel (oil and ethanol) are now at the demonstration scale. This review focuses on evaluating the potential of microalgal technologies for the commercial production of solar-driven H2 from water. It summarizes key global technology drivers, the potential and theoretical limits of microalgal H2 production systems, emerging strategies to engineer next-generation systems and how these fit into an evolving H2 economy. © 2016 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of weather changes in the region of Surabaya in 2015 and 2016 using water vapor data from GPS and Terra MODIS satellite image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyadi, M. N.; Audah, S.; Mutia, N.; Aliyan, S. A.

2017-07-01

Sea surface temperature conditions in the territorial waters of Indonesia can be used as one indicator of a lot or least the content of water vapor in the atmosphere. It is closely related to the process of cloud formation in the region of Indonesia. Surabaya is the capital of the Indonesia's second largest potential for the occurrence of global warming due to climate change around the region. Global warming has the consequence of occurrence of climate variability, with marked by changes in temperature, and rainfall, as well as runoff of water. Monitoring the space-based Global Positioning System (GPS) and remote sensing satellite data such as Terra MODIS can be used in the field of meteorology. That is to measured the level of water vapor globally, with the approach of the amount of precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the atmosphere layer. It can be seen humidity conditions and the potential occurrence of rainfall in an area. The PWV value obtained from GPS processing had range 25.13 mm - 32.87 mm; average value is 27.38 mm and standard deviation is 2.018 mm. Based on the diurnal variation of the PWV GPS indicates that the climatic conditions in the area of Surabaya in 2015 showed the dry season, this is because the average values of PWV pretty low that occurred in July-September. But in September 2015 the PWV value occurrence an increase in water vapor and can be estimated that in the next month will be approaching rainy season.

Global surface mass time variations by using a two-step inversion for cumulating daily satellite gravity information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramillien, Guillaume; Frappart, Frappart; Seoane, Lucia

2015-04-01

We propose a new method to produce time series of global maps of surface mass variations by progressive integration of daily geopotential variations measured by orbiting satellites. In the case of the GRACE mission (2002 - 2012), these geopotential variations can be determined from very accurate inter-satellite K-Band Range Rate (KBRR) measurements of 5-second daily orbits. In particular, the along-track gravity contribution of hydrology is extracted by removing de-aliasing models for static field, atmosphere, oceans mass variations (including periodical tides), as well as polar movements. Our determination of surface mass sources consists of two successive dependent Kalman filter stages. The first one consists of reducing the satellite-based potential anomalies by adjusting the longest spatial wavelengths (i.e., low-degree spherical harmonics less than 5-6). In the second stage, the residual potential anomalies from the previous stage are used to recover surface mass density changes - in terms of Equivalent-Water Height (EWH) - over a global network of juxtaposed triangular elements. These surface tiles of ~40,000 km x km are imposed to be identical and homogeneously-distributed over the terrestrial sphere, however they can be adapted to the local geometry of the surface mass. Our global approach was tested by inverting simulated hydrology-related geopotential data, and successfully applied to estimate time-varying surface mass densities from real GRACE-based residuals. This strategy of combined Kalman filter-type inversions can also be useful for exploring the possibility of reaching better time and space resolutions for hydrology, that would be hopefully brought by future low altitude geodetic missions.

Populations potentially exposed to traffic-related air pollution in seven world cities.

PubMed

Su, Jason G; Apte, Joshua S; Lipsitt, Jonah; Garcia-Gonzales, Diane A; Beckerman, Bernardo S; de Nazelle, Audrey; Texcalac-Sangrador, José Luis; Jerrett, Michael

2015-05-01

Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) likely exerts a large burden of disease globally, and in many places, traffic is increasing dramatically. The impact, however, of urban form on the portion of population potentially exposed to TRAP remains poorly understood. In this study, we estimate portions of population potentially exposed to TRAP across seven global cities of various urban forms. Data on population distributions and road networks were collected from the best available sources in each city and from remote sensing analysis. Using spatial mapping techniques, we first overlaid road buffers onto population data to estimate the portions of population potentially exposed for four plausible impact zones. Based on a most likely scenario with impacts from highways up to 300meters and major roadways up to 50meters, we identified that the portions of population potentially exposed for the seven cities ranged from 23 to 96%. High-income North American cities had the lowest potential exposure portions, while those in Europe had the highest. Second, we adjusted exposure zone concentration levels based on a literature suggested multiplier for each city using corresponding background concentrations. Though Beijing and Mexico City did not have the highest portion of population exposure, those in their exposure zones had the highest levels of exposure. For all seven cities, the portion of population potentially exposed was positively correlated with roadway density and, to a lesser extent, with population density. These analyses suggest that urban form may influence the portion of population exposed to TRAP and vehicle emissions and other factors may influence the exposure levels. Greater understanding of urban form and other factors influencing potential exposure to TRAP may help inform interventions that protect public health. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teaching and Learning in the Global Village: Connect, Create, Collaborate, and Communicate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dwyer, Bernadette

2016-01-01

The world is increasingly interconnected through technology. In order to live and work in a global village our students need to develop global literacy. Global literacy incorporates a range of overlapping concepts including an advocacy dimension, global citizenship responsibility, and cultural and linguistic awareness. Further, global literacy…

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

PubMed

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2011-05-07

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

Eocene Paleoclimate: Incredible or Uncredible? Model data syntheses raise questions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, M.

2012-04-01

Reconstructions of Eocene paleoclimate have pushed on the boundaries of climate dynamics theory for generations. While significant improvements in theory and models have brought them closer to the proxy data, the data themselves have shifted considerably. Tropical temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations are now reconstructed to be higher than once thought--in agreement with models--but, many polar temperature reconstructions are even warmer than the eye popping numbers from only a decade ago. These interpretations of subtropical-to-tropical polar conditions once again challenge models and theory. But, the devil, is as always in the details and it is worthwhile to consider the range of potential uncertainties and biases in the paleoclimate record interpretations to evaluate the proposition that models and data may not materially disagree. It is necessary to ask whether current Eocene paleoclimate reconstructions are accurate enough to compellingly argue for a complete failure of climate models and theory. Careful consideration of Eocene model output and proxy data reveals that over most of the Earth the model agrees with the upper range of plausible tropical proxy data and the lower range of plausible high latitude proxy reconstructions. Implications for the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gas forcing are drawn for a range of potential Eocene climate scenarios ranging from a literal interpretation of one particular model to a literal interpretation of proxy data. Hope for a middle ground is found.

Lentil and Kale: Complementary Nutrient-Rich Whole Food Sources to Combat Micronutrient and Calorie Malnutrition

PubMed Central

Migliozzi, Megan; Thavarajah, Dil; Thavarajah, Pushparajah; Smith, Powell

2015-01-01

Lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) is a nutritious food and a staple for millions of people. Not only are lentils a good source of energy, they also contain a range of micronutrients and prebiotic carbohydrates. Kale (Brassica oleracea v. acephala) has been considered as a health food, but its full range of benefits and composition has not been extensively studied. Recent studies suggest that foods are enrich in prebiotic carbohydrates and dietary fiber that can potentially reduce risks of non-communicable diseases, including obesity, cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. Lentil and kale added to a cereal-based diet would enhance intakes of essential minerals and vitamins to combat micronutrient malnutrition. This review provides an overview of lentil and kale as a complementary nutrient-rich whole food source to combat global malnutrition and calorie issues. In addition, prebiotic carbohydrate profiles and the genetic potential of these crops for further micronutrient enrichment are briefly discussed with respect to developing sustainable and nutritious food systems. PMID:26569296

Lentil and Kale: Complementary Nutrient-Rich Whole Food Sources to Combat Micronutrient and Calorie Malnutrition.

PubMed

Migliozzi, Megan; Thavarajah, Dil; Thavarajah, Pushparajah; Smith, Powell

2015-11-11

Lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) is a nutritious food and a staple for millions of people. Not only are lentils a good source of energy, they also contain a range of micronutrients and prebiotic carbohydrates. Kale (Brassica oleracea v. acephala) has been considered as a health food, but its full range of benefits and composition has not been extensively studied. Recent studies suggest that foods are enrich in prebiotic carbohydrates and dietary fiber that can potentially reduce risks of non-communicable diseases, including obesity, cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. Lentil and kale added to a cereal-based diet would enhance intakes of essential minerals and vitamins to combat micronutrient malnutrition. This review provides an overview of lentil and kale as a complementary nutrient-rich whole food source to combat global malnutrition and calorie issues. In addition, prebiotic carbohydrate profiles and the genetic potential of these crops for further micronutrient enrichment are briefly discussed with respect to developing sustainable and nutritious food systems.

Experimental and theoretical kinetics for the H2O+ + H2/D2 → H3O+/H2DO+ + H/D reactions: observation of the rotational effect in the temperature dependence.

PubMed

Ard, Shaun G; Li, Anyang; Martinez, Oscar; Shuman, Nicholas S; Viggiano, Albert A; Guo, Hua

2014-12-11

Thermal rate coefficients for the title reactions computed using a quasi-classical trajectory method on an accurate global potential energy surface fitted to ∼81,000 high-level ab initio points are compared with experimental values measured between 100 and 600 K using a variable temperature selected ion flow tube instrument. Excellent agreement is found across the entire temperature range, showing a subtle, but unusual temperature dependence of the rate coefficients. For both reactions the temperature dependence has a maximum around 350 K, which is a result of H2O(+) rotations increasing the reactivity, while kinetic energy is decreasing the reactivity. A strong isotope effect is found, although the calculations slightly overestimate the kinetic isotope effect. The good experiment-theory agreement not only validates the accuracy of the potential energy surface but also provides more accurate kinetic data over a large temperature range.

Key sources and seasonal dynamics of greenhouse gas fluxes from yak grazing systems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang; Yan, Caiyu; Matthew, Cory; Wood, Brennon; Hou, Fujiang

2017-01-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock grazing systems are contributing to global warming. To examine the influence of yak grazing systems on GHG fluxes and relationships between GHG fluxes and environmental factors, we measured carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes over three key seasons in 2012 and 2013 from a range of potential sources, including: alpine meadows, dung patches, manure heaps and yak night pens, on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We also estimated the total annual global warming potential (GWP, CO2-equivalents) from family farm grazing yaks using our measured results and other published data. In this study, GHG fluxes per unit area from night pens and composting manure heaps were higher than from dung patches and alpine meadows. Increased moisture content and surface temperature of soil and manure were major factors increasing CO2 and CH4 fluxes. High contributions of CH4 and N2O (21.1% and 44.8%, respectively) to the annual total GWP budget (334.2 tonnes) strongly suggest these GHG other than CO2 should not be ignored when estimating GWP from the family farm grazing yaks on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for the purposes of determining national and regional land use policies or compiling global GHG inventories.

Satellite-Based Assessment of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard for Situational Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas

2018-03-01

Determining the time, location, and severity of natural disaster impacts is fundamental to formulating mitigation strategies, appropriate and timely responses, and robust recovery plans. A Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed to indicate potential landslide activity in near real-time. LHASA combines satellite-based precipitation estimates with a landslide susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are used to identify rainfall conditions from the past 7 days. When rainfall is considered to be extreme and susceptibility values are moderate to very high, a "nowcast" is issued to indicate the times and places where landslides are more probable. When LHASA nowcasts were evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog, the probability of detection (POD) ranged from 8% to 60%, depending on the evaluation period, precipitation product used, and the size of the spatial and temporal window considered around each landslide point. Applications of the LHASA system are also discussed, including how LHASA is used to estimate long-term trends in potential landslide activity at a nearly global scale and how it can be used as a tool to support disaster risk assessment. LHASA is intended to provide situational awareness of landslide hazards in near real-time, providing a flexible, open-source framework that can be adapted to other spatial and temporal scales based on data availability.

Social, economic, and policy implications of organ preservation advances

PubMed Central

Ward, Alyssa; Klassen, David K.; Franz, Kate M.; Giwa, Sebastian; Lewis, Jedediah K.

2018-01-01

Purpose of review Despite over 60 years of progress in the field of since the first organ transplant, insufficient organ preservation capabilities still place profound constraints on transplantation. These constraints play multiple and compounding roles in the predominant limitations of the field: the severe shortages of transplant organs, short-term and long-term posttransplant outcomes and complications, the unmet global need for development of transplant infrastructures, and economic burdens that limit patient access to transplantation and contribute to increasing global healthcare costs. This review surveys ways that advancing preservation technologies can play a role in each of these areas, ultimately benefiting thousands if not millions of patients worldwide. Recent findings Preservation advances can create a wide range of benefits across many facets of organ transplantation, as well as related areas of transplant research. As these technologies mature, so will the policies around their use to maximize the benefits offered by organ preservation. Summary Organ preservation advances stand to increase local and global access to transplantation, improve transplant outcomes, and accelerate progress in related areas such as immune tolerance induction and xenotransplantation. This area holds the potential to save the healthcare system many billions of dollars and reduce costs across many aspects of transplantation. Novel preservation technologies, along with other technologies facilitated by preservation advances, could potentially save millions of lives in the coming years. PMID:29683801

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Richardson, Anthony J; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa J; Brown, Christopher J; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2014-03-27

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Towards a Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (GHGIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duren, Riley; Butler, James; Rotman, Doug; Miller, Charles; Decola, Phil; Sheffner, Edwin; Tucker, Compton; Mitchiner, John; Jonietz, Karl; Dimotakis, Paul

2010-05-01

Over the next few years, an increasing number of entities ranging from international, national, and regional governments, to businesses and private land-owners, are likely to become more involved in efforts to limit atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. In such a world, geospatially resolved information about the location, amount, and rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be needed, as well as the stocks and flows of all forms of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems and in the oceans. The ability to implement policies that limit GHG concentrations would be enhanced by a global, open, and transparent greenhouse gas information system (GHGIS). An operational and scientifically robust GHGIS would combine ground-based and space-based observations, carbon-cycle modeling, GHG inventories, meta-analysis, and an extensive data integration and distribution system, to provide information about sources, sinks, and fluxes of greenhouse gases at policy-relevant temporal and spatial scales. The GHGIS effort was initiated in 2008 as a grassroots inter-agency collaboration intended to rigorously identify the needs for such a system, assess the capabilities of current assets, and suggest priorities for future research and development. We will present a status of the GHGIS effort including our latest analysis and ideas for potential near-term pilot projects with potential relevance to European initiatives including the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) and the Integrated Carbon Observing System (ICOS).

Key sources and seasonal dynamics of greenhouse gas fluxes from yak grazing systems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Yan, Caiyu; Matthew, Cory; Wood, Brennon; Hou, Fujiang

2017-01-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock grazing systems are contributing to global warming. To examine the influence of yak grazing systems on GHG fluxes and relationships between GHG fluxes and environmental factors, we measured carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes over three key seasons in 2012 and 2013 from a range of potential sources, including: alpine meadows, dung patches, manure heaps and yak night pens, on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We also estimated the total annual global warming potential (GWP, CO2-equivalents) from family farm grazing yaks using our measured results and other published data. In this study, GHG fluxes per unit area from night pens and composting manure heaps were higher than from dung patches and alpine meadows. Increased moisture content and surface temperature of soil and manure were major factors increasing CO2 and CH4 fluxes. High contributions of CH4 and N2O (21.1% and 44.8%, respectively) to the annual total GWP budget (334.2 tonnes) strongly suggest these GHG other than CO2 should not be ignored when estimating GWP from the family farm grazing yaks on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for the purposes of determining national and regional land use policies or compiling global GHG inventories. PMID:28106070

Key sources and seasonal dynamics of greenhouse gas fluxes from yak grazing systems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Yan, Caiyu; Matthew, Cory; Wood, Brennon; Hou, Fujiang

2017-01-20

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock grazing systems are contributing to global warming. To examine the influence of yak grazing systems on GHG fluxes and relationships between GHG fluxes and environmental factors, we measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes over three key seasons in 2012 and 2013 from a range of potential sources, including: alpine meadows, dung patches, manure heaps and yak night pens, on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We also estimated the total annual global warming potential (GWP, CO 2 -equivalents) from family farm grazing yaks using our measured results and other published data. In this study, GHG fluxes per unit area from night pens and composting manure heaps were higher than from dung patches and alpine meadows. Increased moisture content and surface temperature of soil and manure were major factors increasing CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. High contributions of CH 4 and N 2 O (21.1% and 44.8%, respectively) to the annual total GWP budget (334.2 tonnes) strongly suggest these GHG other than CO 2 should not be ignored when estimating GWP from the family farm grazing yaks on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for the purposes of determining national and regional land use policies or compiling global GHG inventories.

Modeling the potential of different countries for pandemic spread over the global air network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhe; Lv, Baolei; Xu, Bing

2017-04-01

Air network plays an important role in the spread of global epidemics due to its superior speed and range. Understanding the disease transmission pattern via network is the foundation for the prevention and control of future pandemics. In this study, we measured the potential of different countries for the pandemic spread by using a disease transmission model which integrated inter-country air traffic flow and geographic distance. The model was verified on the spread pattern of 2003 SARS, 2009 H1N1 influenza and 2014 Ebola by setting starting point at China, Mexico and Guinea respectively. Results showed that the model well reproduced the spread direction during the early stage as the time course were in good agreement with the reported arrival dates. Then the model was used to simulate the potential risk of each country in spreading the disease as the origin country. We observed that countries in North America, Europe and East Asia had the highest risk of transmission considering their high degree in the air network. We also found that for most starting countries, United States, United Kingdom, Germany and France would become the most-important spreading cores. Compared with empirical Susceptible-Infectious-Recover model, this model could respond much faster to the disease spread with no need for empirical disease transmission parameters.

Global optimization of additive potential energy functions: Predicting binary Lennard-Jones clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolossváry, István; Bowers, Kevin J.

2010-11-01

We present a method for minimizing additive potential-energy functions. Our hidden-force algorithm can be described as an intricate multiplayer tug-of-war game in which teams try to break an impasse by randomly assigning some players to drop their ropes while the others are still tugging until a partial impasse is reached, then, instructing the dropouts to resume tugging, for all teams to come to a new overall impasse. Utilizing our algorithm in a non-Markovian parallel Monte Carlo search, we found 17 new putative global minima for binary Lennard-Jones clusters in the size range of 90-100 particles. The method is efficient enough that an unbiased search was possible; no potential-energy surface symmetries were exploited. All new minima are comprised of three nested polyicosahedral or polytetrahedral shells when viewed as a nested set of Connolly surfaces (though the shell structure has previously gone unscrutinized, known minima are often qualitatively similar). Unlike known minima, in which the outer and inner shells are comprised of the larger and smaller atoms, respectively, in 13 of the new minima, the atoms are not as clearly separated by size. Furthermore, while some known minima have inner shells stabilized by larger atoms, four of the new minima have outer shells stabilized by smaller atoms.

Climate change and intertidal wetlands.

PubMed

Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

2013-03-19

Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

PubMed Central

Ross, Pauline M.; Adam, Paul

2013-01-01

Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change. PMID:24832670

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

PubMed Central

Provan, Jim; Maggs, Christine A.

2012-01-01

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two single-copy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming. PMID:21593035

The greenhouse emissions footprint of free-range eggs.

PubMed

Taylor, R C; Omed, H; Edwards-Jones, G

2014-01-01

Eggs are an increasingly significant source of protein for human consumption, and the global poultry industry is the single fastest-growing livestock sector. In the context of international concern for food security and feeding an increasingly affluent human population, the contribution to global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions from animal protein production is of critical interest. We calculated the GHG emissions footprint for the fastest-growing sector of the UK egg market: free-range production in small commercial units on mixed farms. Emissions are calculated to current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and UK standards (PAS2050): including direct, indirect, and embodied emissions from cradle to farm gate compatible with a full product life-cycle assessment. We present a methodology for the allocation of emissions between ruminant and poultry enterprises on mixed farms. Greenhouse gas emissions averaged a global warming potential of 2.2 kg of CO2e/dozen eggs, or 1.6 kg of CO2equivalent (e)/kg (assuming average egg weight of 60 g). One kilogram of protein from free-range eggs produces 0.2 kg of CO2e, lower than the emissions from white or red meat (based on both kg of meat and kg of protein). Of these emissions, 63% represent embodied carbon in poultry feed. A detailed GHG emissions footprint represents a baseline for comparison with other egg production systems and sources of protein for human consumption. Eggs represent a relatively low-carbon supply of animal protein, but their production is heavily dependent on cereals and soy, with associated high emissions from industrial nitrogen production, land-use change, and transport. Alternative sources of digestible protein for poultry diets are available, may be produced from waste processing, and would be an effective tool for reducing the industry's GHG emissions and dependence on imported raw materials.

The Anthropocene concept in ecology and conservation.

PubMed

Corlett, Richard T

2015-01-01

The term 'Anthropocene' was first used in the year 2000 to refer to the current time period in which human impacts are at least as important as natural processes. It is currently being considered as a potential geological epoch, following on from the Holocene. While most environmental scientists accept that many key environmental parameters are now outside their Holocene ranges, there is no agreement on when the Anthropocene started, with plausible dates ranging from the Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions to the recent globalization of industrial impacts. In ecology, the Anthropocene concept has focused attention on human-dominated habitats and novel ecosystems, while in conservation biology it has sparked a divisive debate on the continued relevance of the traditional biocentric aims. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-26

13 The FALCON Study...that would mate a rocket booster with a hypersonic glide vehicle. Congress has generally supported the rationale for the PGS mission, but it has...General: Precise Long-Range Missiles may Enable Big Nuclear Cuts,” Inside the Pentagon, April 28, 2005. Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range

Determination of plant growth rate and growth temperature range from measurement of physiological parameters

Treesearch

R. S. Criddle; B. N. Smith; L. D. Hansen; J. N. Church

2001-01-01

Many factors influence species range and diversity, but temperature and temperature variability are always major global determinants, irrespective of local constraints. On a global scale, the ranges of many taxa have been observed to increase and their diversity decrease with increasing latitude. On a local scale, gradients in species distribution are observable with...

The implications of rebasing global mean temperature timeseries for GCM based climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Global climate and earth system models are assessed by comparison with observations through a number of metrics. The InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights in particular their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. This focus on annual mean global mean temperature (hereafter GMT) change is presented as an important element in demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Any new model or new model version whose historic simulations fail to reproduce the "general features " and 20th century trends is likely therefore to undergo further tuning. Thus this focus could have implications for model development. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies i.e. changes with respect to some period. Since the models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K (roughly observed GMT +/- 1.5K) this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We present timeseries of the slow timescale response of the CMIP5 models rebased to late-20th century temperatures and to mid-19th century temperatures. We provide a mathematical interpretation of this approach to model assessment and discuss two consequences. First is a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. Second, is an implication of linearity in the GMT response (to the extent that the slow-timescale response of the historic simulations is consistent with observations, and given their uncertainties). For each individual model these consequences only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a much wider range of GMTs. The analysis suggests that this aspect of model evaluation risks providing a model development pressure which acts against a wide exploration of physically plausible responses; in particular against an exploration of potentially globally significant nonlinear responses and feedbacks. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Registration of Medical Devices

PubMed Central

George, Bobby

2010-01-01

Globally the medical device (MD) market has been growing quite rapidly over the past decade. The regulatory framework for pharmaceuticals and devices differ substantially. The regulatory authorities in different regions of the world recognize different classes of medical devices (MDs), based on their design complexity, their use characteristics, and their potential for harm, if misused. With the vast majority of MDs in developing countries being imported, the respective governments need to put in place policies & regulations to address all elements related to MDs, ranging from its development, manufacturing, registration to post-marketing obligations & disposal so that public can have access to high quality, safe & affordable products for appropriate use. This article highlights current regulations pertaining to registration of MDs in India, in light of those existing in Global Harmonization Task Force (GHTF) member countries & Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. PMID:21814626

The biomarket.

PubMed

Maruthappu, Mahiben; Williams, Callum

2013-01-01

Political analysis can enrich our understanding of the interface between health and society. Here, a theoretical framework called 'the biomarket' is proposed, one that describes the interaction between life, power and the market, and the progressive institutionalisation of this dynamic by state actors. This framework expands upon 'biopower', a social concept developed by Michel Foucault. The role of the biomarket is illustrated by analysis of a range of cases, namely the relationships between global health and the pharmaceutical and tobacco industries. The potential adverse consequences of the biomarket are demonstrated, revealing how in some instances, important social measures of welfare are discarded for the sake of economic efficiency and profit. The authors conclude that the biomarket may serve to deepen our understanding of the authority and control exerted by corporations over life, positing that the biomarket must be further regulated for sustainable advances in global health.

Styles and Timing of Volatile-driven Activity in the Eastern Hellas Region of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crown, David A.; Bleamaster, Leslie F., III; Mest, Scott C.; Teneva, Lida T.

2005-01-01

Hellas basin, the largest well-preserved impact structure on the Martian surface, is Mars deepest depositional sink and has long been recognized as a source for global dust storms. The basin and surrounding highlands span a wide range in latitude and elevation, exhibit landforms shaped by a diversity of geologic processes, and preserve exposures of Noachian, Hesperian, and Amazonian units. Geologically contemporaneous volcanism and volatile-driven activity in the circum-Hellas highlands provide resources for potential Martian life. Hellas is a geologically significant region for evaluating volatile abundance, distribution and cycling and changes in surface conditions on Mars. Current work integrates geologic studies of the basin floor and east rim using Viking Orbiter, Mars Global Surveyor, and Mars Odyssey datasets to provide a synthesis of the history of volatiles in the region.

Global-local methodologies and their application to nonlinear analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

1989-01-01

An assessment is made of the potential of different global-local analysis strategies for predicting the nonlinear and postbuckling responses of structures. Two postbuckling problems of composite panels are used as benchmarks and the application of different global-local methodologies to these benchmarks is outlined. The key elements of each of the global-local strategies are discussed and future research areas needed to realize the full potential of global-local methodologies are identified.

Comparison of physically- and economically-based CO2-equivalences for methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, O.

2012-01-01

There is a controversy on the role methane (and other short-lived species) should play in climate mitigation policies and no consensus on what an optimal methane CO2-equivalence should be. We revisit this question by discussing the relative merits of physically-based (i.e. Global Warming Potential or GWP and Global Temperature change Potential or GTP) and socio-economically-based climate metrics. To this effect we use a simplified Global Damage Potential (GDP) that was introduced by earlier authors and investigate the uncertainties in the methane CO2-equivalence that arise from physical and socio-economic factors. The median value of the methane GDP comes out very close to the widely used methane 100-year GWP because of various compensating effects. However there is a large spread in possible methane CO2-equivalences (1-99% interval: 10.0-42.5; 5-95% interval: 12.5-38.0) that is essentially due to the choice in some socio-economic parameters (i.e. the damage cost function and the discount rate). The methane 100-year GTP falls outside these ranges. It is legitimate to increase the methane CO2-equivalence in the future as global warming unfolds. While changes in biogeochemical cycles and radiative efficiencies cause some small changes to physically-based metrics, a systematic increase in the methane CO2-equivalence can only be achieved by some ad-hoc shortening of the time horizon. In contrast using a convex damage cost function provides a natural increase in the methane CO2-equivalence for the socio-economically-based metrics. We also show that a methane CO2-equivalence based on a pulse emission is sufficient to inform multi-year climate policies and emissions reductions as long as there is some degree of visibility on CO2 prices and CO2-equivalences.

Open Earth Observation Data for Measuring Anthropogenic Development in Coastal Zones at Continental Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, X.; Leinenkugel, P.; Guo, H.; Kuenzer, C.

2017-12-01

During the recent decades, global coasts are undergoing tremendous change due to accelerating socio-economic growth, which has severe effects on the functioning of global coastal systems. In view of this, accurate, timely, and area-wide global information on natural as well as anthropogenic processes in the coastal zone are of paramount importance for sustainable coastal development. A broad range of freely available satellite derived products, and open geo-datasets, as well as statistics with global coverage exist that have not yet been fully exploited to evaluate human development patterns in coastal areas. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of freely and openly available EO and GEO data sets for characterizing and evaluating human development in coastal zones on large scales. Therefore, different geo-spatial dataset such as Global Urban Footprint (GUF), Open Street Map (OSM), time series of Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Land cover were acquired for the entire continental coast of Asia, defined as the terrestrial area 100 km from the coastline. In order to extract indices for the coastline, a reference structure was developed allowing the integration of a 2D spatial pattern of a given parameter to a certain location along the coast line. Based on this reference structure statistics for the coast were calculated every 5 km parallel to the coast line as well as for four different distance intervals from the coast. The results demonstrate the highly unequal distribution of coastal development with respect to urban and agricultural usage in Asia, with large differences between and within different countries. China coasts show the highest overall patterns of urban development, while countries such as Pakistan and Myanmar show comparably low levels with nearly no development evident absence from coastal metropolitan areas. Furthermore, a clear trend of decreasing urban development is evident with increasing distance from the coast. This study highlights the potential of global geo-spatial data products for deriving anthropogenic development indicators that can support the evaluation and monitoring for sustainable development of coastal zones, while also discussing the shortcomings of these datasets for such purposes.

Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, Walter D.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

2016-06-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony--the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape--despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years--the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate--paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Anthony; Green, Rhys; Bateman, Ian; Broadmeadow, Mark; Bruce, Toby; Burney, Jennifer; Carey, Pete; Chadwick, David; Crane, Ellie; Field, Rob; Goulding, Keith; Griffiths, Howard; Hastings, Astley; Kasoar, Tim; Kindred, Daniel; Phalan, Ben; Pickett, John; Smith, Pete; Wall, Eileen; Zu Ermgassen, Erasmus K. H. J.; Balmford, Andrew

2016-05-01

Greenhouse gas emissions from global agriculture are increasing at around 1% per annum, yet substantial cuts in emissions are needed across all sectors. The challenge of reducing agricultural emissions is particularly acute, because the reductions achievable by changing farming practices are limited and are hampered by rapidly rising food demand. Here we assess the technical mitigation potential offered by land sparing--increasing agricultural yields, reducing farmland area and actively restoring natural habitats on the land spared. Restored habitats can sequester carbon and can offset emissions from agriculture. Using the UK as an example, we estimate net emissions in 2050 under a range of future agricultural scenarios. We find that a land-sparing strategy has the technical potential to achieve significant reductions in net emissions from agriculture and land-use change. Coupling land sparing with demand-side strategies to reduce meat consumption and food waste can further increase the technical mitigation potential--however, economic and implementation considerations might limit the degree to which this technical potential could be realized in practice.

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. corn belt?

PubMed

Johnson, Jane M-F; Archer, David W; Weyers, Sharon L; Barbour, Nancy W

2011-01-01

Agricultural management practices that enhance C sequestration, reduce greenhouse gas emission (nitrous oxide [N₂O], methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and promote productivity are needed to mitigate global warming without sacrificing food production. The objectives of the study were to compare productivity, greenhouse gas emission, and change in soil C over time and to assess whether global warming potential and global warming potential per unit biomass produced were reduced through combined mitigation strategies when implemented in the northern U.S. Corn Belt. The systems compared were (i) business as usual (BAU); (ii) maximum C sequestration (MAXC); and (iii) optimum greenhouse gas benefit (OGGB). Biomass production, greenhouse gas flux change in total and organic soil C, and global warming potential were compared among the three systems. Soil organic C accumulated only in the surface 0 to 5 cm. Three-year average emission of N₂O and CH was similar among all management systems. When integrated from planting to planting, N₂O emission was similar for MAXC and OGGB systems, although only MAXC was fertilized. Overall, the three systems had similar global warming potential based on 4-yr changes in soil organic C, but average rotation biomass was less in the OGGB systems. Global warming potential per dry crop yield was the least for the MAXC system and the most for OGGB system. This suggests management practices designed to reduce global warming potential can be achieved without a loss of productivity. For example, MAXC systems over time may provide sufficient soil C sequestration to offset associated greenhouse gas emission. by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Impacts of bromine and iodine chemistry on tropospheric OH and HO2: comparing observations with box and global model perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Daniel; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J.; Vaughan, Stewart; Ingham, Trevor; Whalley, Lisa K.; Edwards, Peter M.; Read, Katie A.; Lee, James D.; Moller, Sarah J.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Heard, Dwayne E.

2018-03-01

The chemistry of the halogen species bromine and iodine has a range of impacts on tropospheric composition, and can affect oxidising capacity in a number of ways. However, recent studies disagree on the overall sign of the impacts of halogens on the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. We present simulations of OH and HO2 radicals for comparison with observations made in the remote tropical ocean boundary layer during the Seasonal Oxidant Study at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory in 2009. We use both a constrained box model, using detailed chemistry derived from the Master Chemical Mechanism (v3.2), and the three-dimensional global chemistry transport model GEOS-Chem. Both model approaches reproduce the diurnal trends in OH and HO2. Absolute observed concentrations are well reproduced by the box model but are overpredicted by the global model, potentially owing to incomplete consideration of oceanic sourced radical sinks. The two models, however, differ in the impacts of halogen chemistry. In the box model, halogen chemistry acts to increase OH concentrations (by 9.8 % at midday at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory), while the global model exhibits a small increase in OH at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (by 0.6 % at midday) but overall shows a decrease in the global annual mass-weighted mean OH of 4.5 %. These differences reflect the variety of timescales through which the halogens impact the chemical system. On short timescales, photolysis of HOBr and HOI, produced by reactions of HO2 with BrO and IO, respectively, increases the OH concentration. On longer timescales, halogen-catalysed ozone destruction cycles lead to lower primary production of OH radicals through ozone photolysis, and thus to lower OH concentrations. The global model includes more of the longer timescale responses than the constrained box model, and overall the global impact of the longer timescale response (reduced primary production due to lower O3 concentrations) overwhelms the shorter timescale response (enhanced cycling from HO2 to OH), and thus the global OH concentration decreases. The Earth system contains many such responses on a large range of timescales. This work highlights the care that needs to be taken to understand the full impact of any one process on the system as a whole.

Global-local methodologies and their application to nonlinear analysis. [for structural postbuckling study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

1986-01-01

An assessment is made of the potential of different global-local analysis strategies for predicting the nonlinear and postbuckling responses of structures. Two postbuckling problems of composite panels are used as benchmarks and the application of different global-local methodologies to these benchmarks is outlined. The key elements of each of the global-local strategies are discussed and future research areas needed to realize the full potential of global-local methodologies are identified.

Constraints on flavor-dependent long range forces from solar neutrinos and KamLAND

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Abhijit; Dighe, Amol; Joshipura, Anjan S.

2007-05-01

Flavor-dependent long range (LR) leptonic forces, like those mediated by the Le-Lμ or Le-Lτ gauge bosons, constitute a minimal extension of the standard model that preserves its renormalizability. We study the impact of such interactions on the solar neutrino oscillations when the interaction range RLR is much larger than the Earth-Sun distance. The LR potential can dominate over the standard charged current potential inside the Sun in spite of strong constraints on the coupling α of the LR force coming from the atmospheric neutrino data and laboratory search for new forces. We demonstrate that the solar and atmospheric neutrino mass scales do not get trivially decoupled even if θ13 is vanishingly small. In addition, for α≳10-52 and normal hierarchy, resonant enhancement of θ13 results in nontrivial energy dependent effects on the νe survival probability. We perform a complete three generation analysis, and obtain constraints on α through a global fit to the solar neutrino and KamLAND data. We get the 3σ limits αeμ<3.4×10-53 and αeτ<2.5×10-53 when RLR is much smaller than our distance from the galactic center. With larger RLR, the collective LR potential due to all the electrons in the galaxy becomes significant and the constraints on α become stronger by up to two orders of magnitude.

The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E.; Van Cangh, Thomas; Beauté, Julien; Bartels, Cornelius; Tsolova, Svetla; Pharris, Anastasia; Ciotti, Massimo; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of infectious disease, including global trade and travel, the overuse of antibiotics, intensive agriculture, climate change, high population densities, and inadequate infrastructures, such as water treatment facilities. Where multiple risk drivers interact, the potential impact of a disease outbreak is amplified. The varying temporal and geographic frequency with which infectious disease events occur adds yet another layer of complexity to the issue. Mitigating the emergence and spread of infectious disease necessitates mapping and prioritising the interdependencies between public health and other sectors. Conversely, during an international public health emergency, significant disruption occurs not only to healthcare systems but also to a potentially wide range of sectors, including trade, tourism, energy, civil protection, transport, agriculture, and so on. At the same time, dealing with a disease outbreak may require a range of critical sectors for support. There is a need to move beyond narrow models of risk to better account for the interdependencies between health and other sectors so as to be able to better mitigate and respond to the risks posed by emerging infectious disease. PMID:25308818

Requirements for a Global Greenhouse Gas Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duren, R.; Boland, S.; Lempert, R.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

A global greenhouse gas information system will prove a critical component of any successful effort to mitigate climate change which relies on limiting the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. The system will provide the situational awareness necessary to actively reduce emissions, influence land use change, and sequester carbon. The information from such a system will be subject to intense scrutiny. Therefore, an effective system must openly and transparently produce data of unassailable quality. A global greenhouse gas information system will likely require a combination of space-and air-based remote- sensing assets, ground-based measurements, carbon cycle modeling and self-reporting. The specific requirements on such a system will be shaped by the degree of international cooperation it enjoys and the needs of the policy regime it aims to support, which might range from verifying treaty obligations, to certifying the tradable permits and offsets underlying a market in greenhouse gas emission reductions, to providing a comprehensive inventory of high and low emitters that could be used by non-governmental organizations and other international actors. While some technical studies have examined particular system components in single scenarios, there remains a need for a comprehensive survey of the range of potential requirements, options, and strategies for the overall system. We have initiated such a survey and recently hosted a workshop which engaged a diverse community of stakeholders to begin synthesizing requirements for such a system, with an initial focus on carbon dioxide. In this paper we describe our plan for completing the definition of the requirements, options, and strategies for a global greenhouse gas monitoring system. We discuss our overall approach and provide a status on the initial requirements synthesis activity.

The use of mosquito nets in fisheries: A global perspective

PubMed Central

Gurung, Rajina; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Hill, Nicholas; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

2018-01-01

Free or subsidised mosquito net (MN) distribution has been an increasingly important tool in efforts to combat malaria in recent decades throughout the developing world, making great strides towards eradicating this hugely detrimental disease. However, there has been increasing concern in the natural resource management and healthcare communities over alternative use of MNs, particularly in artisanal fisheries where it has been suggested they pose a threat to sustainability of fish stocks. So far, little evidence has been presented as to the global prevalence and characteristics of MN fishing, limiting global management initiatives and incentives for action across disciplines. We conducted a rapid global assessment of mosquito net fishing (MNF) observations from expert witnesses living and/or working in malarial zones using an internet survey. MNF was found to be a broadly pan-tropical activity, particularly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. MNF is conducted using a variety of deployment methods and scales including seine nets, scoop/dip nets, set nets and traps. MNF was witnessed in a broad range of marine and freshwater habitats and was seen to exploit a wide range of taxa, with capture of juvenile fish reported in more than half of responses. Perceived drivers of MNF were closely related to poverty, revealing potentially complex and arguably detrimental livelihood and food security implications which we discuss in light of current literature and management paradigms. The key policies likely to influence future impacts of MNF are in health, regarding net distribution, and natural resource management regarding restrictions on use. We outline critical directions for research and highlight the need for a collaborative, interdisciplinary approach to development of both localised and broad-scale policy. PMID:29385189

The Role of Artificial Atmospheric CO2 Removal in Stabilizing Earth's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2014-05-01

Recent research showed that global mean temperature remains approximately constant for several centuries after complete cessation of CO2 emissions, while global mean thermosteric sea level continues to rise. This implies that a net artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere may be necessary to decrease the atmospheric CO2 concentrations more rapidly and bring the climate system components to their previous states on human timescales. The purpose of this study is to explore the reversibility of climate responses to a range of realistic CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition from fossil-fuel driven economy to a zero-emission energy system with implementation of negative CO2 emissions, using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity (UVic ESCM 2.9). The CO2 emission pathways were designed to meet constraints related to the implementation of negative emission technologies derived from the integrated assessment literature. Our simulations show that while it is possible, in principle, to revert the global mean temperature after a phase of overshoot, the thermosteric sea level rise is not reversible on human timescales for the range of emission scenarios considered. During the negative emission phase, CO2 is released form the natural (terrestrial and marine) carbon sinks, which diminishes the efficiency of negative emissions implemented. In addition, spatial changes of vegetation distribution patterns are not entirely reversible on human timescales. We suggest that while negative emissions could potentially stabilize the global mean temperature at a desired level, such technology does not supersede reductions in fossil fuel emissions, as the artificial CO2 capture at large scale has many limitations and is unable to stabilize other climate system components (e.g. sea level) at desired levels.

Archeomagnetic intensity spikes: global or regional geomagnetic field features?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korte, Monika; Constable, Catherine G.

2018-03-01

Variations of the geomagnetic field prior to direct observations are inferred from archeo- and paleomagnetic experiments. Seemingly unusual variations not seen in the present day and historical field are of particular interest to constrain the full range of core dynamics. Recently, archeomagnetic intensity spikes, characterised by very high field values that appear to be associated with rapid secular variation rates, have been reported from several parts of the world. They were first noted in data from the Levant at around 900 BCE. A recent re-assessment of previous and new Levantine data, involving a rigorous quality assessment, interprets the observations as an extreme local geomagnetic high with at least two intensity spikes between the 11^{th} and 8^{th} centuries BCE. Subsequent reports of similar features from Asia, the Canary Islands and Texas raise the question of whether such features might be common occurrences, or whether they might even be part of a global magnetic field feature. Here we use spherical harmonic modelling to test two hypotheses: firstly, whether the Levantine and other potential spikes might be associated with higher dipole field intensity than shown by existing global field models around 1000 BCE, and secondly, whether the observations from different parts of the world are compatible with a westward drifting intense flux patch. Our results suggest that the spikes originate from intense flux patches growing and decaying mostly in situ, combined with stronger and more variable dipole moment than shown by previous global field models. Axial dipole variations no more than 60% higher than observed in the present field, probably within the range of normal geodynamo behaviour, seem sufficient to explain the observations.

Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Olin, Stefan; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Popp, Alexander; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2017-11-01

Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and to avoid further emissions from deforestation. However, the acceptance and feasibility of land-based mitigation projects depends on potential side effects on other important ecosystem functions and their services. Here, we use projections of future land use and land cover for different land-based mitigation options from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) and evaluate their effects with a global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). In the land-use models, carbon removal was achieved either via growth of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage, via avoided deforestation and afforestation, or via a combination of both. We compare these scenarios to a reference scenario without land-based mitigation and analyse the LPJ-GUESS simulations with the aim of assessing synergies and trade-offs across a range of ecosystem service indicators: carbon storage, surface albedo, evapotranspiration, water runoff, crop production, nitrogen loss, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds. In our mitigation simulations cumulative carbon storage by year 2099 ranged between 55 and 89 GtC. Other ecosystem service indicators were influenced heterogeneously both positively and negatively, with large variability across regions and land-use scenarios. Avoided deforestation and afforestation led to an increase in evapotranspiration and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and to a decrease in albedo, runoff, and nitrogen loss. Crop production could also decrease in the afforestation scenarios as a result of reduced crop area, especially for MAgPIE land-use patterns, if assumed increases in crop yields cannot be realized. Bioenergy-based climate change mitigation was projected to affect less area globally than in the forest expansion scenarios, and resulted in less pronounced changes in most ecosystem service indicators than forest-based mitigation, but included a possible decrease in nitrogen loss, crop production, and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions.

Investigation of mercury deposition and potential sources at six sites from the Pacific Coast to the Great Basin, USA.

PubMed

Wright, Genine; Gustin, Mae Sexauer; Weiss-Penzias, Peter; Miller, Matthieu B

2014-02-01

The Western Airborne Contaminants Assessment Project showed that USA National Parks had fish mercury (Hg) concentrations above threshold concentrations set for wildlife. Since significant areas of the Western USA are arid, we hypothesized that dry deposition would be important. The primary question was whether sources of Hg were local and thus, easily addressed, or regional (from within the United States), or global (long range transport), and more difficult to address. To investigate this, surrogate surfaces and passive samplers for the measurement of GOM deposition and concentration, respectively, were deployed from the coast of California to the eastern edge of Nevada. Meteorological data, back trajectory modeling, and ozone concentrations were applied to better understand potential sources of Hg. Lowest seasonal mean Hg deposition (0.2 to 0.4 ng m(-2)h(-1)) was observed at low elevation (<100 m) Pacific Coast sites. Highest values were recorded at Lick Observatory, a high elevation coastal site (1,279 m), and Great Basin National Park (2,062 m) in rural eastern Nevada (1.5 to 2.4 ng m(-2)h(-1)). Intermediate values were recorded in Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks (0.9 to 1.2 ng m(-2)h(-1)). Results indicate that local, regional and global sources of air pollution, specifically oxidants, are contributing to observed deposition. At Great Basin National Park air chemistry was influenced by regional urban and agricultural emissions and free troposphere inputs. Dry deposition contributed ~2 times less Hg than wet deposition at the coastal locations, but 3 to 4 times more at the higher elevation sites. Based on the spatial trends, oxidation in the marine boundary layer or ocean sources contributed ~0.4 ng m(-2)h(-1) at the coastal locations. Regional pollution and long range transport contributed 1 to 2 ng m(-2)h(-1) to other locations, and the source of Hg is global and as such, all sources are important to consider. © 2013.

Global gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory of carbonyl sulfide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Tim; Whelan, Mary

Atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS) is the most abundant sulfur containing gas in the troposphere and is an atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Gridded inventories of global anthropogenic COS are used for interpreting global COS measurements. However, previous gridded anthropogenic data are a climatological estimate based on input data that is over three decades old and are not representative of current conditions. Here we develop a new gridded data set of global anthropogenic COS sources that includes more source sectors than previously available and uses the most current emissions factors and industry activity data as input. Additionally, themore » inventory is provided as annually varying estimates from years 1980–2012 and employs a source specific spatial scaling procedure. We estimate a global source in year 2012 of 406 Gg S y -1 (range of 223–586 Gg S y -1), which is highly concentrated in China and is twice as large as the previous gridded inventory. Our large upward revision in the bottom-up estimate of the source is consistent with a recent top-down estimate based on air-monitoring and Antarctic firn data. Furthermore, our inventory time trends, including a decline in the 1990's and growth after the year 2000, are qualitatively consistent with trends in atmospheric data. Lastly, similarities between the spatial distribution in this inventory and remote sensing data suggest that the anthropogenic source could potentially play a role in explaining a missing source in the global COS budget.« less

Global gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory of carbonyl sulfide

DOE PAGES

Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Tim; Whelan, Mary; ...

2018-03-31

Atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS) is the most abundant sulfur containing gas in the troposphere and is an atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Gridded inventories of global anthropogenic COS are used for interpreting global COS measurements. However, previous gridded anthropogenic data are a climatological estimate based on input data that is over three decades old and are not representative of current conditions. Here we develop a new gridded data set of global anthropogenic COS sources that includes more source sectors than previously available and uses the most current emissions factors and industry activity data as input. Additionally, themore » inventory is provided as annually varying estimates from years 1980–2012 and employs a source specific spatial scaling procedure. We estimate a global source in year 2012 of 406 Gg S y -1 (range of 223–586 Gg S y -1), which is highly concentrated in China and is twice as large as the previous gridded inventory. Our large upward revision in the bottom-up estimate of the source is consistent with a recent top-down estimate based on air-monitoring and Antarctic firn data. Furthermore, our inventory time trends, including a decline in the 1990's and growth after the year 2000, are qualitatively consistent with trends in atmospheric data. Lastly, similarities between the spatial distribution in this inventory and remote sensing data suggest that the anthropogenic source could potentially play a role in explaining a missing source in the global COS budget.« less

Global gridded anthropogenic emissions inventory of carbonyl sulfide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumkehr, Andrew; Hilton, Tim W.; Whelan, Mary; Smith, Steve; Kuai, Le; Worden, John; Campbell, J. Elliott

2018-06-01

Atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS or OCS) is the most abundant sulfur containing gas in the troposphere and is an atmospheric tracer for the carbon cycle. Gridded inventories of global anthropogenic COS are used for interpreting global COS measurements. However, previous gridded anthropogenic data are a climatological estimate based on input data that is over three decades old and are not representative of current conditions. Here we develop a new gridded data set of global anthropogenic COS sources that includes more source sectors than previously available and uses the most current emissions factors and industry activity data as input. Additionally, the inventory is provided as annually varying estimates from years 1980-2012 and employs a source specific spatial scaling procedure. We estimate a global source in year 2012 of 406 Gg S y-1 (range of 223-586 Gg S y-1), which is highly concentrated in China and is twice as large as the previous gridded inventory. Our large upward revision in the bottom-up estimate of the source is consistent with a recent top-down estimate based on air-monitoring and Antarctic firn data. Furthermore, our inventory time trends, including a decline in the 1990's and growth after the year 2000, are qualitatively consistent with trends in atmospheric data. Finally, similarities between the spatial distribution in this inventory and remote sensing data suggest that the anthropogenic source could potentially play a role in explaining a missing source in the global COS budget.

[Future Regulatory Science through a Global Product Development Strategy to Overcome the Device Lag].

PubMed

Tsuchii, Isao

2016-01-01

Environment that created "medical device lag (MDL)" has changed dramatically, and currently that term is not heard often. This was mainly achieved through the leadership of three groups: government, which determined to overcome MDL and took steps to do so; medical societies, which exhibited accountability in trial participation; and MD companies, which underwent a change in mindset that allowed comprehensive tripartite cooperation to reach the current stage. In particular, the global product development strategy (GPDS) of companies in a changing social environment has taken a new-turn with international harmonization trends, like Global Harmonization Task Force and International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use. As a result, this evolution has created opportunities for treatment with cutting-edge MDs in Japanese society. Simultaneously, it has had a major impact on the planning process of GPDS of companies. At the same time, the interest of global companies has shifted to emerging economies for future potential profit since Japan no longer faces MDL issue. This economic trend makes MDLs a greater problem for manufacturers. From the regulatory science viewpoint, this new environment has not made it easy to plan a global strategy that will be adaptable to local societies. Without taking hasty action, flexible thinking from the global point of view is necessary to enable the adjustment of local strategies to fit the situation on the ground so that the innovative Japanese medical technology can be exported to a broad range of societies.

Combined constraints on global ocean primary production using observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Hashioka, Taketo; Quéré, Corinne Le

2013-09-01

production is at the base of the marine food web and plays a central role for global biogeochemical cycles. Yet global ocean primary production is known to only a factor of 2, with previous estimates ranging from 38 to 65 Pg C yr-1 and no formal uncertainty analysis. Here, we present an improved global ocean biogeochemistry model that includes a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis and a new observational database of net primary production (NPP) in the ocean. We combine the model and observations to constrain particulate NPP in the ocean with statistical metrics. The PlankTOM5.3 model includes a new photosynthesis formulation with a dynamic representation of iron-light colimitation, which leads to a considerable improvement of the interannual variability of surface chlorophyll. The database includes a consistent set of 50,050 measurements of 14C primary production. The model best reproduces observations when global NPP is 58 ± 7 Pg C yr-1, with a most probable value of 56 Pg C yr-1. The most probable value is robust to the model used. The uncertainty represents 95% confidence intervals. It considers all random errors in the model and observations, but not potential biases in the observations. We show that tropical regions (23°S-23°N) contribute half of the global NPP, while NPPs in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are approximately equal in spite of the larger ocean area in the South.

Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; K. Zhu; J.A. Westfall; C.M. Oswalt; A.W. D' Amato; B.F. Walters; H.E. Lintz

2013-01-01

Shifts in tree species ranges may occur due to global climate change, which in turn may be exacerbated by natural disturbance events. Within the context of global climate change, developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances may enable mitigation/adaptation of projected impacts. Using a forest inventory across the eastern U.S...

A Global Geospatial Ecosystem Services Estimate of Urban Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clinton, Nicholas; Stuhlmacher, Michelle; Miles, Albie; Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Wagner, Melissa; Georgescu, Matei; Herwig, Chris; Gong, Peng

2018-01-01

Though urban agriculture (UA), defined here as growing of crops in cities, is increasing in popularity and importance globally, little is known about the aggregate benefits of such natural capital in built-up areas. Here, we introduce a quantitative framework to assess global aggregate ecosystem services from existing vegetation in cities and an intensive UA adoption scenario based on data-driven estimates of urban morphology and vacant land. We analyzed global population, urban, meteorological, terrain, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) datasets in Google Earth Engine to derive global scale estimates, aggregated by country, of services provided by UA. We estimate the value of four ecosystem services provided by existing vegetation in urban areas to be on the order of 33 billion annually. We project potential annual food production of 100-180 million tonnes, energy savings ranging from 14 to 15 billion kilowatt hours, nitrogen sequestration between 100,000 and 170,000 tonnes, and avoided storm water runoff between 45 and 57 billion cubic meters annually. In addition, we estimate that food production, nitrogen fixation, energy savings, pollination, climate regulation, soil formation and biological control of pests could be worth as much as 80-160 billion annually in a scenario of intense UA implementation. Our results demonstrate significant country-to-country variability in UA-derived ecosystem services and reduction of food insecurity. These estimates represent the first effort to consistently quantify these incentives globally, and highlight the relative spatial importance of built environments to act as change agents that alleviate mounting concerns associated with global environmental change and unsustainable development.

Comparative Analysis: Potential Barriers to Career Participation by North American Physicians in Global Health

PubMed Central

Rhee, Daniel S.; Heckman, Jennifer E.

2014-01-01

Physician interest in global health, particularly among family physicians, is reflected by an increasing proliferation of field training and service experiences. However, translating initial training involvement into a defined and sustainable global health career remains difficult and beset by numerous barriers. Existing global health literature has largely examined training experiences and related ethical considerations while neglecting the role of career development in global health. To explore this, this paper extrapolates potential barriers to global health career involvement from existing literature and compares these to salary and skills requirements for archetypal physician positions in global health, presenting a framework of possible barriers to sustained physician participation in global health work. Notable barriers identified include financial limitations, scheduling conflicts, security/family concerns, skills limitations, limited awareness of opportunities, and specialty choice, with family practice often closely aligned with global health experience. Proposed solutions include financial support, protected time, family relocation support, and additional training. This framework delineates barriers to career involvement in global health by physicians. Further research regarding these barriers as well as potential solutions may help direct policy and initiatives to better utilize physicians, particularly family physicians, as a valuable global health human resource. PMID:25405030

76 FR 15249 - Deferral for CO2

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-21

... Agency FR Federal Register GHG Greenhouse gas GWP Global warming potential HFC Hydrofluorocarbon ICR... year, weighted by the global warming potential (GWP) of the particular GHG pollutant, normalized to the... global GHG. Carbon dioxide emissions from a subset of bioenergy sources are reported as information items...

Biophysically Based Mathematical Modeling of Interstitial Cells of Cajal Slow Wave Activity Generated from a Discrete Unitary Potential Basis

PubMed Central

Faville, R.A.; Pullan, A.J.; Sanders, K.M.; Koh, S.D.; Lloyd, C.M.; Smith, N.P.

2009-01-01

Abstract Spontaneously rhythmic pacemaker activity produced by interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC) is the result of the entrainment of unitary potential depolarizations generated at intracellular sites termed pacemaker units. In this study, we present a mathematical modeling framework that quantitatively represents the transmembrane ion flows and intracellular Ca2+ dynamics from a single ICC operating over the physiological membrane potential range. The mathematical model presented here extends our recently developed biophysically based pacemaker unit modeling framework by including mechanisms necessary for coordinating unitary potential events, such as a T-Type Ca2+ current, Vm-dependent K+ currents, and global Ca2+ diffusion. Model simulations produce spontaneously rhythmic slow wave depolarizations with an amplitude of 65 mV at a frequency of 17.4 cpm. Our model predicts that activity at the spatial scale of the pacemaker unit is fundamental for ICC slow wave generation, and Ca2+ influx from activation of the T-Type Ca2+ current is required for unitary potential entrainment. These results suggest that intracellular Ca2+ levels, particularly in the region local to the mitochondria and endoplasmic reticulum, significantly influence pacing frequency and synchronization of pacemaker unit discharge. Moreover, numerical investigations show that our ICC model is capable of qualitatively replicating a wide range of experimental observations. PMID:19527643

Increasing the applicability of density functional theory. IV. Consequences of ionization-potential improved exchange-correlation potentials.

PubMed

Verma, Prakash; Bartlett, Rodney J

2014-05-14

This paper's objective is to create a "consistent" mean-field based Kohn-Sham (KS) density functional theory (DFT) meaning the functional should not only provide good total energy properties, but also the corresponding KS eigenvalues should be accurate approximations to the vertical ionization potentials (VIPs) of the molecule, as the latter condition attests to the viability of the exchange-correlation potential (VXC). None of the prominently used DFT approaches show these properties: the optimized effective potential VXC based ab initio dft does. A local, range-separated hybrid potential cam-QTP-00 is introduced as the basis for a "consistent" KS DFT approach. The computed VIPs as the negative of KS eigenvalue have a mean absolute error of 0.8 eV for an extensive set of molecule's electron ionizations, including the core. Barrier heights, equilibrium geometries, and magnetic properties obtained from the potential are in good agreement with experiment. A similar accuracy with less computational efforts can be achieved by using a non-variational global hybrid variant of the QTP-00 approach.

Quantifying the Benefit of Early Climate Change Mitigation in Avoiding Biodiversity Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R.; Vanderwal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J.; Atkinson, I. M.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T.; Shoo, L.; Jarvis, A.; Williams, S.; Lowe, J. A.

2014-12-01

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss are presented. Previous studies have projected widespread global and regional impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, these have focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change induced biodiversity loss projected for the 2080s. Furthermore, despite the large number of studies addressing extinction risks in particular species groups, few studies have explored the issue of potential range loss in common and widespread species. Our study is a comprehensive global scale analysis of 48,786 common and widespread species. We show that without climate change mitigation, 57+/-6% of the plants and 34+/-7% of the animals studied are likely to lose over 50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. This estimate incorporates realistic, taxon-specific dispersal rates. With stringent mitigation, in which emissions peak in 2016 and are reduced by 5% annually thereafter, these losses are reduced by 60%. Furthermore, with stringent mitigation, global temperature rises more slowly, allowing an additional three decades for biodiversity to adapt to a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels. The work also shows that even with mitigation not all the impacts can now be avoided, and ecosystems and biodiversity generally has a very limited capacity to adapt. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, for example if emissions do not peak until 2030, the percentage of losses that can be avoided declines to 40%. Since even small declines in common and widespread species can disrupt ecosystem function and services, these results indicate that without mitigation, globally widespread losses in ecosystem service provision are to be expected.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

Vienna FORTRAN: A FORTRAN language extension for distributed memory multiprocessors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Barbara; Mehrotra, Piyush; Zima, Hans

1991-01-01

Exploiting the performance potential of distributed memory machines requires a careful distribution of data across the processors. Vienna FORTRAN is a language extension of FORTRAN which provides the user with a wide range of facilities for such mapping of data structures. However, programs in Vienna FORTRAN are written using global data references. Thus, the user has the advantage of a shared memory programming paradigm while explicitly controlling the placement of data. The basic features of Vienna FORTRAN are presented along with a set of examples illustrating the use of these features.

Programming in Vienna Fortran

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Barbara; Mehrotra, Piyush; Zima, Hans

1992-01-01

Exploiting the full performance potential of distributed memory machines requires a careful distribution of data across the processors. Vienna Fortran is a language extension of Fortran which provides the user with a wide range of facilities for such mapping of data structures. In contrast to current programming practice, programs in Vienna Fortran are written using global data references. Thus, the user has the advantages of a shared memory programming paradigm while explicitly controlling the data distribution. In this paper, we present the language features of Vienna Fortran for FORTRAN 77, together with examples illustrating the use of these features.

The Auroral Particles experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

An instrument for the detection of particles in the energy range of 0.1 ev to 80 Kev was designed, built, tested, calibrated, and flown onboard the spacecraft ATS-6. Data from this instrument generated the following research: intensive studies of the plasma in the vicinity of the spacecraft; global variations of plasmas; correlative studies using either other spacecraft or ground based measurements; and studies of spacecraft interactions with ambient plasmas including charging, local electric fields due to differential charging, and active control of spacecraft potential. Results from this research are presented.

Geomagnetic and sunspot activity associations and ionospheric effects of lightning phenomena at Trivandrum near dip equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girish, T. E.; Eapen, P. E.

2008-12-01

From a study of thunder/lightning observations in Trivandrum (near dip equator) for selected years between 1853 and 2005, we could find an inverse relation of the same with sunspot activity and associations with enhancements in diurnal range of local geomagnetic declination. The results seem to suggest lightning-associated modulation of E-region dynamo currents in the equatorial ionosphere and the thunderstorm activity near dip equator probably acts as a moderator to regulate electric potential gradient changes in the global electric circuit due to solar activity changes.

Know Your Noodles! Assessing Variations in Sodium Content of Instant Noodles across Countries.

PubMed

Farrand, Clare; Charlton, Karen; Crino, Michelle; Santos, Joseph; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Rodrigo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Webster, Jacqui

2017-06-16

Reducing salt intake is a cost-effective public health intervention to reduce the global burden of non-communicable disease (NCDs). Ultra-processed foods contribute ~80% of dietary salt in high income countries, and are becoming prominent in low-middle income countries. Instant noodle consumption is particularly high in the Asia Pacific region. The aim of this study was to compare the sodium content of instant noodles sold worldwide to identify potential for reformulation. Analysis was undertaken for 765 instant noodle products from 10 countries using packaged food composition databases of ultra-processed foods compiled by the Global Food Monitoring Group (GFMG) and national shop survey data. Sodium levels were high and variable, within and between countries. Instant noodles in China had the highest mean sodium content (1944 mg/100 g; range: 397-3678/100 g) compared to New Zealand (798 mg/100 g; range: 249-2380 mg/100 g). Average pack size ranged from 57 g (Costa Rica) to 98 g (China). The average packet contributed 35% to 95% of the World Health Organization recommended daily salt intake of <5 g. Forty-one percent of products met the Pacific Island (PICs) regional sodium targets, 37% met the South Africa 2016 targets, and 62% met the UK 2017 targets. This study emphasises a need for stronger regulation and closer monitoring to drive rigorous reformulation of salt in ultra-processed foods.

Know Your Noodles! Assessing Variations in Sodium Content of Instant Noodles across Countries

PubMed Central

Farrand, Clare; Charlton, Karen; Crino, Michelle; Santos, Joseph; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Rodrigo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Webster, Jacqui

2017-01-01

Reducing salt intake is a cost-effective public health intervention to reduce the global burden of non-communicable disease (NCDs). Ultra-processed foods contribute ~80% of dietary salt in high income countries, and are becoming prominent in low-middle income countries. Instant noodle consumption is particularly high in the Asia Pacific region. The aim of this study was to compare the sodium content of instant noodles sold worldwide to identify potential for reformulation. Analysis was undertaken for 765 instant noodle products from 10 countries using packaged food composition databases of ultra-processed foods compiled by the Global Food Monitoring Group (GFMG) and national shop survey data. Sodium levels were high and variable, within and between countries. Instant noodles in China had the highest mean sodium content (1944 mg/100 g; range: 397–3678/100 g) compared to New Zealand (798 mg/100 g; range: 249–2380 mg/100 g). Average pack size ranged from 57 g (Costa Rica) to 98 g (China). The average packet contributed 35% to 95% of the World Health Organization recommended daily salt intake of <5 g. Forty-one percent of products met the Pacific Island (PICs) regional sodium targets, 37% met the South Africa 2016 targets, and 62% met the UK 2017 targets. This study emphasises a need for stronger regulation and closer monitoring to drive rigorous reformulation of salt in ultra-processed foods. PMID:28621720

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rebolini, Elisa, E-mail: rebolini@lct.jussieu.fr; Toulouse, Julien, E-mail: julien.toulouse@upmc.fr; Savin, Andreas, E-mail: savin@lct.jussieu.fr

We present a study of the variation of total energies and excitation energies along a range-separated adiabatic connection. This connection links the non-interacting Kohn–Sham electronic system to the physical interacting system by progressively switching on the electron–electron interactions whilst simultaneously adjusting a one-electron effective potential so as to keep the ground-state density constant. The interactions are introduced in a range-dependent manner, first introducing predominantly long-range, and then all-range, interactions as the physical system is approached, as opposed to the conventional adiabatic connection where the interactions are introduced by globally scaling the standard Coulomb interaction. Reference data are reported for themore » He and Be atoms and the H{sub 2} molecule, obtained by calculating the short-range effective potential at the full configuration-interaction level using Lieb's Legendre-transform approach. As the strength of the electron–electron interactions increases, the excitation energies, calculated for the partially interacting systems along the adiabatic connection, offer increasingly accurate approximations to the exact excitation energies. Importantly, the excitation energies calculated at an intermediate point of the adiabatic connection are much better approximations to the exact excitation energies than are the corresponding Kohn–Sham excitation energies. This is particularly evident in situations involving strong static correlation effects and states with multiple excitation character, such as the dissociating H{sub 2} molecule. These results highlight the utility of long-range interacting reference systems as a starting point for the calculation of excitation energies and are of interest for developing and analyzing practical approximate range-separated density-functional methodologies.« less

Staging dementia using Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes scores: a Texas Alzheimer's research consortium study.

PubMed

O'Bryant, Sid E; Waring, Stephen C; Cullum, C Munro; Hall, James; Lacritz, Laura; Massman, Paul J; Lupo, Philip J; Reisch, Joan S; Doody, Rachelle

2008-08-01

The Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes (CDR-SOB) score is commonly used, although the utility regarding this score in staging dementia severity is not well established. To investigate the effectiveness of CDR-SOB scores in staging dementia severity compared with the global CDR score. Retrospective study. Texas Alzheimer's Research Consortium minimum data set cohort. A total of 1577 participants (110 controls, 202 patients with mild cognitive impairment, and 1265 patients with probable Alzheimer disease) were available for analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated from a derivation sample to determine optimal cutoff scores and ranges, which were then applied to the validation sample. Optimal ranges of CDR-SOB scores corresponding to the global CDR scores were 0.5 to 4.0 for a global score of 0.5, 4.5 to 9.0 for a global score of 1.0, 9.5 to 15.5 for a global score of 2.0, and 16.0 to 18.0 for a global score of 3.0. When applied to the validation sample, kappa scores ranged from 0.86 to 0.94 (P < .001 for all), with 93.0% of the participants falling within the new staging categories. The CDR-SOB score compares well with the global CDR score for dementia staging. Owing to the increased range of values, the CDR-SOB score offers several advantages over the global score, including increased utility in tracking changes within and between stages of dementia severity. Interpretive guidelines for CDR-SOB scores are provided.

Staging Dementia Using Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes Scores

PubMed Central

O'Bryant, Sid E.; Waring, Stephen C.; Cullum, C. Munro; Hall, James; Lacritz, Laura; Massman, Paul J.; Lupo, Philip J.; Reisch, Joan S.; Doody, Rachelle

2012-01-01

Background The Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes (CDR-SOB) score is commonly used, although the utility regarding this score in staging dementia severity is not well established. Obiective To investigate the effectiveness of CDRSOB scores in staging dementia severity compared with the global CDR score. Design Retrospective study. Setting Texas Alzheimer's Research Consortium minimum data set cohort. Participants A total of 1577 participants (110 controls, 202 patients with mild cognitive impairment, and 1265 patients with probable Alzheimer disease) were available for analysis. Main Outcome Measures Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated from a derivation sample to determine optimal cutoff scores and ranges, which were then applied to the validation sample. Results Optimal ranges of CDR-SOB scores corresponding to the global CDR scores were 0.5 to 4.0 for a global score of 0.5, 4.5 to 9.0 for a global score of 1.O, 9.5 to 15.5 for a global score of 2.0, and 16.0 to 18.0 for a global score of 3.0. When applied to the validation sample, κ scores ranged from 0.86 to 0.94 (P <.001 for all), with 93.0% of the participants falling within the new staging categories. Conclusions The CDR-SOB score compares well with the global CDR score for dementia staging. Owing to the increased range of values, the CDR-SOB score offers several advantages over the global score, including increased utility in tracking changes within and between stages of dementia severity. Interpretive guidelines for CDR-SOB scores are provided. PMID:18695059

Nutritional Attributes, Substitutability, Scalability, and Environmental Intensity of an Illustrative Subset of Current and Future Protein Sources for Aquaculture Feeds: Joint Consideration of Potential Synergies and Trade-offs.

PubMed

Pelletier, Nathan; Klinger, Dane H; Sims, Neil A; Yoshioka, Janice-Renee; Kittinger, John N

2018-05-15

Aquaculture is anticipated to play an increasingly important role in global food security because it may represent one of the best opportunities to increase the availability of healthy animal protein in the context of resource and environmental constraints. However, the growth and sustainability of the aquaculture industry faces important bottlenecks with respect to feed resources, which may be derived from diverse sources. Here, using a small but representative subset of potential aquafeed inputs (which we selected to highlight a range of relevant attributes), we review a core suite of considerations that need to be accommodated in concert in order to overcome key bottlenecks to the continued development and expansion of the aquaculture industry. Specifically, we evaluate the nutritional attributes, substitutability, scalability, and resource and environmental intensity of each input. On this basis, we illustrate a range of potential synergies and trade-offs within and across attributes that are characteristic of ingredient types. We posit that the recognition and management of such synergies and trade-offs is imperative to satisfying the multi-objective decision-making associated with sustainable increases in future aquaculture production.

Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Acceleration of the Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, Williama

2011-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System 5 (GEOS-5) is the atmospheric model used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) for a variety of applications, from long-term climate prediction at relatively coarse resolution, to data assimilation and numerical weather prediction, to very high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations. GEOS-5 is being ported to a graphics processing unit (GPU) cluster at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). By utilizing GPU co-processor technology, we expect to increase the throughput of GEOS-5 by at least an order of magnitude, and accelerate the process of scientific exploration across all scales of global modeling, including: The large-scale, high-end application of non-hydrostatic, global, cloud-resolving modeling at 10- to I-kilometer (km) global resolutions Intermediate-resolution seasonal climate and weather prediction at 50- to 25-km on small clusters of GPUs Long-range, coarse-resolution climate modeling, enabled on a small box of GPUs for the individual researcher After being ported to the GPU cluster, the primary physics components and the dynamical core of GEOS-5 have demonstrated a potential speedup of 15-40 times over conventional processor cores. Performance improvements of this magnitude reduce the required scalability of 1-km, global, cloud-resolving models from an unfathomable 6 million cores to an attainable 200,000 GPU-enabled cores.

Public Health and Unconventional Oil and Gas Extraction Including Fracking: Global Lessons from a Scottish Government Review.

PubMed

Watterson, Andrew; Dinan, William

2018-04-04

Unconventional oil and gas extraction (UOGE) including fracking for shale gas is underway in North America on a large scale, and in Australia and some other countries. It is viewed as a major source of global energy needs by proponents. Critics consider fracking and UOGE an immediate and long-term threat to global, national, and regional public health and climate. Rarely have governments brought together relatively detailed assessments of direct and indirect public health risks associated with fracking and weighed these against potential benefits to inform a national debate on whether to pursue this energy route. The Scottish government has now done so in a wide-ranging consultation underpinned by a variety of reports on unconventional gas extraction including fracking. This paper analyses the Scottish government approach from inception to conclusion, and from procedures to outcomes. The reports commissioned by the Scottish government include a comprehensive review dedicated specifically to public health as well as reports on climate change, economic impacts, transport, geology, and decommissioning. All these reports are relevant to public health, and taken together offer a comprehensive review of existing evidence. The approach is unique globally when compared with UOGE assessments conducted in the USA, Australia, Canada, and England. The review process builds a useful evidence base although it is not without flaws. The process approach, if not the content, offers a framework that may have merits globally.

Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

PubMed

Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

2016-02-01

Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L. hyperborea. Because no genetic baseline is currently available for this species, our results may represent a first step in informing conservation and mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space: The Long-Range Future: An Interview with Jesco von Puttkamer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawler, Andrew

1985-01-01

Jesco von Puttkamer manages long-range planning in NASA's Office of Space Flight. He believes that space offers the opportunity to ease global tensions, help the developing world, and create a new global culture off the planet. (Author/RM)

Regulatory Underpinnings of Global Health Security: FDA's Roles in Preventing, Detecting, and Responding to Global Health Threats

PubMed Central

Bond, Katherine C.; Maher, Carmen

2014-01-01

In February 2014, health officials from around the world announced the Global Health Security Agenda, a critical effort to strengthen national and global systems to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease threats and to foster stronger collaboration across borders. With its increasing global roles and broad range of regulatory responsibilities in ensuring the availability, safety, and security of medical and food products, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is engaged in a range of efforts in support of global health security. This article provides an overview of FDA's global health security roles, focusing on its responsibilities related to the development and use of medical countermeasures (MCMs) for preventing, detecting, and responding to global infectious disease and other public health emergency threats. The article also discusses several areas—antimicrobial resistance, food safety, and supply chain integrity—in which FDA's global health security roles continue to evolve and extend beyond MCMs and, in some cases, beyond traditional infectious disease threats. PMID:25254912

Regulatory underpinnings of Global Health security: FDA's roles in preventing, detecting, and responding to global health threats.

PubMed

Courtney, Brooke; Bond, Katherine C; Maher, Carmen

2014-01-01

In February 2014, health officials from around the world announced the Global Health Security Agenda, a critical effort to strengthen national and global systems to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease threats and to foster stronger collaboration across borders. With its increasing global roles and broad range of regulatory responsibilities in ensuring the availability, safety, and security of medical and food products, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is engaged in a range of efforts in support of global health security. This article provides an overview of FDA's global health security roles, focusing on its responsibilities related to the development and use of medical countermeasures (MCMs) for preventing, detecting, and responding to global infectious disease and other public health emergency threats. The article also discusses several areas-antimicrobial resistance, food safety, and supply chain integrity-in which FDA's global health security roles continue to evolve and extend beyond MCMs and, in some cases, beyond traditional infectious disease threats.

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework

PubMed Central

Gushulak, BD; Weekers, J; MacPherson, DW

2010-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events. PMID:22460280

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

PubMed

Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

2009-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events.

The competitiveness of medicinal plants in Central Java Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riptanti, E. W.; Qonita, R. A.; Fajarningsih, R. U.

2018-03-01

Indonesia hold a potential opportunity to be a pharmaceutical production country. In the other side, Indonesia facing agriculture product and market competition internationally and domestically. Improving competitiveness of specific products are aimed to hit the export market and also to be able to compete with import products in domestic market. Considering Indonesian market opportunity, therefore we perform this study aiming to examine the competitiveness of medicinal plants in Central Java area. The basic method applied in this study was descriptive and data sources are primary and secondary data. Data were analyzed using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Trade Specialization Index (TSI) approaches. According to the study, we reveal that medicinal plant commodities in Central Java province have average score 8.52, indicating a strong comparative advantage in global markets, while the commodities appear to have average score of 0.97 at 0 to 1 range, representing a strong competitiveness. Those results are attributed to natural and environmental condition, as well as high demand of global market. This competitiveness will encourage traditional/modern medicinal industries in global market.

Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul

2018-04-01

The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

Degree of Ice Particle Surface Roughness Inferred from Polarimetric Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hioki, Souichiro; Yang, Ping; Baum, Bryan A.; Platnick, Steven; Meyer, Kerry G.; King, Michael D.; Riedi, Jerome

2016-01-01

The degree of surface roughness of ice particles within thick, cold ice clouds is inferred from multidirectional, multi-spectral satellite polarimetric observations over oceans, assuming a column-aggregate particle habit. An improved roughness inference scheme is employed that provides a more noise-resilient roughness estimate than the conventional best-fit approach. The improvements include the introduction of a quantitative roughness parameter based on empirical orthogonal function analysis and proper treatment of polarization due to atmospheric scattering above clouds. A global 1-month data sample supports the use of a severely roughened ice habit to simulate the polarized reflectivity associated with ice clouds over ocean. The density distribution of the roughness parameter inferred from the global 1- month data sample and further analyses of a few case studies demonstrate the significant variability of ice cloud single-scattering properties. However, the present theoretical results do not agree with observations in the tropics. In the extra-tropics, the roughness parameter is inferred but 74% of the sample is out of the expected parameter range. Potential improvements are discussed to enhance the depiction of the natural variability on a global scale.

Analysis of continuous GPS measurements from southern Victoria Land, Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willis, Michael J.

2007-01-01

Several years of continuous data have been collected at remote bedrock Global Positioning System (GPS) sites in southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. Annual to sub-annual variations are observed in the position time-series. An atmospheric pressure loading (APL) effect is calculated from pressure field anomalies supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model loading an elastic Earth model. The predicted APL signal has a moderate correlation with the vertical position time-series at McMurdo, Ross Island (International Global Navigation Satellite System Service (IGS) station MCM4), produced using a global solution. In contrast, a local solution in which MCM4 is the fiducial site generates a vertical time series for a remote site in Victoria Land (Cape Roberts, ROB4) which exhibits a low, inverse correlation with the predicted atmospheric pressure loading signal. If, in the future, known and well modeled geophysical loads can be separated from the time-series, then local hydrological loading, of interest for glaciological and climate applications, can potentially be extracted from the GPS time-series.

Teaching corner: raising the bar: ethical considerations of medical student preparation for short-term immersion experiences.

PubMed

Kittle, Nathan; McCarthy, Virginia

2015-03-01

Short-term international medical outreach experiences are becoming more popular among medical students. As the popularity of these trips grows, participants, scholars, and institutions have become more aware of the potential pitfalls of such experiences. Loyola University Chicago Stritch School of Medicine (SSOM) has an approximately 20-year international service immersion (ISI) program that has sent more than 1,400 participants to more than 30 countries. Recently, ISI programming has been adjusted to provide students more formal sessions exploring the ethics of the ISI trips. Students are required to attend both pre- and post-trip educational sessions covering a wide range of relevant global health topics as well as participating in in-country reflections and post-trip debriefings. This recent adjustment has evolved further to become the foundation for the SSOM's four-year Global Health Honors program that not only encourages an ethical foundation for the student's ISI experience but also hopes to provide a foundation for students as they look toward a future career in global health.

A review of earth observation using mobile personal communication devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferster, Colin J.; Coops, Nicholas C.

2013-02-01

Earth observation using mobile personal communication devices (MPCDs) is a recent advance with considerable promise for acquiring important and timely measurements. Globally, over 5 billion people have access to mobile phones, with an increasing proportion having access to smartphones with capabilities such as a camera, microphone, global positioning system (GPS), data storage, and networked data transfer. Scientists can view these devices as embedded sensors with the potential to take measurements of the Earth's surface and processes. To advance the state of Earth observation using MPCDs, scientists need to consider terms and concepts, from a broad range of disciplines including citizen science, image analysis, and computer vision. In this paper, as a result of our literature review, we identify a number of considerations for Earth observation using MPCDs such as methods of field collection, collecting measurements over broad areas, errors and biases, data processing, and accessibility of data. Developing effective frameworks for mobile data collection with public participation and strategies for minimizing bias, in combination with advancements in image processing techniques, will offer opportunities to collect Earth sensing data across a range of scales and perspectives, complimenting airborne and spaceborne remote sensing measurements.

Using Unmanned Air Systems to Monitor Methane in the Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clow, Jacqueline; Smith, Jeremy Christopher

2016-01-01

Methane is likely to be an important contributor to global warming, and our current knowledge of its sources, distributions, and transport is insufficient. It is estimated that there could be from 7.5 to 400 billion tons carbon-equivalent of methane in the arctic region, a broad range that is indicative of the uncertainty within the Earth Science community. Unmanned Air Systems (UASs) are often used for combat or surveillance by the military, but they also have been used for Earth Science field missions. In this study, we will analyze the utility of the NASA Global Hawk and the Aurora Flight Sciences Orion UASs compared to the manned DC-8 aircraft for conducting a methane monitoring mission. The mission will focus on the measurement of methane along the boundaries of Arctic permafrost thaw and melting glaciers. The use of Long Endurance UAS brings a new range of possibilities including the ability to obtain long- term and persistent observations and to significantly augment methane measurements/retrievals collected by satellite. Furthermore, we discuss the future of long endurance UAS and their potential for science applications in the next twenty to twenty-five years.

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave Laser Absorption Spectrometer at 1.57 Micrometer for Atmospheric CO2 Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing

2014-01-01

Understanding the earth's carbon cycle is essential for diagnosing current and predicting future climates, which requires precise global measurements of atmospheric CO2 through space missions. The Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) space mission will provide accurate global atmospheric CO2 measurements to meet carbon science requirements. The joint team of NASA Langley Research Center and ITT Exelis, Inc. proposes to use the intensity-modulated, continuous-wave (IM-CW) laser absorption spectrometer (LAS) approach for the ASCENDS mission. Prototype LAS instruments have been developed and used to demonstrate the power, signal-to-noise ratio, precision and accuracy, spectral purity, and stability of the measurement and the instrument needed for atmospheric CO2 observations from space. The ranging capability from laser platform to ground surfaces or intermediate backscatter layers is achieved by transmitted range-encoded IM laser signals. Based on the prototype instruments and current lidar technologies, space LAS systems and their CO2 column measurements are analyzed. These studies exhibit a great potential of using IM-CW LAS system for the active space CO2 mission ASCENDS.

The 4th order GISS model of the global atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Bayliss, A.; Storch, J.

1977-01-01

The new GISS 4th order model of the global atmosphere is described. It is based on 4th order quadratically conservative differences with the periodic application of a 16th order filter on the sea level pressure and potential temperature equations, a combination which is approximately enstrophy conserving. Several short range forecasts indicate a significant improvement over 2nd order forecasts with the same resolution (approximately 400 km). However the 4th order forecasts are somewhat inferior to 2nd order forecasts with double resolution. This is probably due to the presence of short waves in the range between 1000 km and 2000 km, which are computed more accurately by the 2nd order high resolution model. An operation count of the schemes indicates that with similar code optimization, the 4th order model will require approximately the same amount of computer time as the 2nd order model with the same resolution. It is estimated that the 4th order model with a grid size of 200 km provides enough accuracy to make horizontal truncation errors negligible over a period of a week for all synoptic scales (waves longer than 1000 km).

Variations in Pu isotopic composition in soils from the Spitsbergen (Norway): Three potential pollution sources of the Arctic region.

PubMed

Łokas, E; Anczkiewicz, R; Kierepko, R; Mietelski, J W

2017-07-01

Although the polar regions have not been industrialised, numerous contaminants originating from human activity are detectable in the Arctic environment. This study reports evidence of 240 Pu/ 239 Pu atomic ratios in the tundra and initial soils from different parts of west and central Spitsbergen and recognizes possible environmental inputs of non-global fallout Pu. The average atomic ratio of 240 Pu/ 239 Pu equal to 0.179 (ranging between 0.129 and 0.201) in tundra soils are comparable to the characteristic ratio for global fallout (0.180). However, the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu atomic ratios in the initial soils from proglacial zone of glaciers change within wide range between 0.1281 and 0.234 with the mean value of 0.169. By combining alpha and mass spectrometry, the three-sources model was used to identify the Pu sources in initial soils. Our study indicated that the main source of Pu is nuclear tests and that a second source with lower Pu ratio may come from weapons grade Pu (unexploded weapons grade Pu ie. material from bomb which didn't undergo nuclear explosions for example for security tests). Additionally, we found samples with high 238 Pu/ 239+240 Pu activity ratios and with typical global fallout 240 Pu/ 239 Pu atomic ratios, which are associated with separate sources of pure 238 Pu from the SNAP-9A satellite burn up in the atmosphere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parameterization Interactions in Global Aquaplanet Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Ritthik; Bordoni, Simona; Suselj, Kay; Teixeira, João.

2018-02-01

Global climate simulations rely on parameterizations of physical processes that have scales smaller than the resolved ones. In the atmosphere, these parameterizations represent moist convection, boundary layer turbulence and convection, cloud microphysics, longwave and shortwave radiation, and the interaction with the land and ocean surface. These parameterizations can generate different climates involving a wide range of interactions among parameterizations and between the parameterizations and the resolved dynamics. To gain a simplified understanding of a subset of these interactions, we perform aquaplanet simulations with the global version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model employing a range (in terms of properties) of moist convection and boundary layer (BL) parameterizations. Significant differences are noted in the simulated precipitation amounts, its partitioning between convective and large-scale precipitation, as well as in the radiative impacts. These differences arise from the way the subcloud physics interacts with convection, both directly and through various pathways involving the large-scale dynamics and the boundary layer, convection, and clouds. A detailed analysis of the profiles of the different tendencies (from the different physical processes) for both potential temperature and water vapor is performed. While different combinations of convection and boundary layer parameterizations can lead to different climates, a key conclusion of this study is that similar climates can be simulated with model versions that are different in terms of the partitioning of the tendencies: the vertically distributed energy and water balances in the tropics can be obtained with significantly different profiles of large-scale, convection, and cloud microphysics tendencies.

Biodiversity response to natural gradients of multiple stressors on continental margins

PubMed Central

Sperling, Erik A.; Frieder, Christina A.; Levin, Lisa A.

2016-01-01

Sharp increases in atmospheric CO2 are resulting in ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation that threaten marine organisms on continental margins and their ecological functions and resulting ecosystem services. The relative influence of these stressors on biodiversity remains unclear, as well as the threshold levels for change and when secondary stressors become important. One strategy to interpret adaptation potential and predict future faunal change is to examine ecological shifts along natural gradients in the modern ocean. Here, we assess the explanatory power of temperature, oxygen and the carbonate system for macrofaunal diversity and evenness along continental upwelling margins using variance partitioning techniques. Oxygen levels have the strongest explanatory capacity for variation in species diversity. Sharp drops in diversity are seen as O2 levels decline through the 0.5–0.15 ml l−1 (approx. 22–6 µM; approx. 21–5 matm) range, and as temperature increases through the 7–10°C range. pCO2 is the best explanatory variable in the Arabian Sea, but explains little of the variance in diversity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. By contrast, very little variation in evenness is explained by these three global change variables. The identification of sharp thresholds in ecological response are used here to predict areas of the seafloor where diversity is most at risk to future marine global change, noting that the existence of clear regional differences cautions against applying global thresholds. PMID:27122565

Life cycle analysis of distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power: economics, global warming potential and water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norwood, Zack; Kammen, Daniel

2012-12-01

We report on life cycle assessment (LCA) of the economics, global warming potential and water (both for desalination and water use in operation) for a distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power (DCS-CHP) system. Detailed simulation of system performance across 1020 sites in the US combined with a sensible cost allocation scheme informs this LCA. We forecast a levelized cost of 0.25 kWh-1 electricity and 0.03 kWh-1 thermal, for a system with a life cycle global warming potential of ˜80 gCO2eq kWh-1 of electricity and ˜10 gCO2eq kWh-1 thermal, sited in Oakland, California. On the basis of the economics shown for air cooling, and the fact that any combined heat and power system reduces the need for cooling while at the same time boosting the overall solar efficiency of the system, DCS-CHP compares favorably to other electric power generation systems in terms of minimization of water use in the maintenance and operation of the plant. The outlook for water desalination coupled with distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power is less favorable. At a projected cost of 1.40 m-3, water desalination with DCS-CHP would be economical and practical only in areas where water is very scarce or moderately expensive, primarily available through the informal sector, and where contaminated or salt water is easily available as feed-water. It is also interesting to note that 0.40-1.90 m-3 is the range of water prices in the developed world, so DCS-CHP desalination systems could also be an economical solution there under some conditions.