Science.gov

Sample records for potential risk assessment

  1. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  2. Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Englhardt, Johanna; Boekhorst, Ellen; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale. M. Andres Diaz-Loaiza (1), Johanna Englhardt (1), Ellen de Boekhorst (1), Philip J. Ward (1) and Jeroen Aerts (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. andres.diazloaiza@vu.nl Floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters for humanity, affecting many people every year. Quantitative risk models on a global scale are nowadays available tools for institutions and actors in charge of risk management in order to plan possible mitigation measures in case of flood risk events. Many of these models have been focus on potential economic damage, population and GDP exposure, but the potential casualties assessment has been left aside. This is partially due to the complexity of the problem itself, in which several variables like the age of a pedestrian (drag/exposed to a flood event), or his weight and swimming experience can be decisive for the complete understanding of the problem. In the present work is presented the advances for the development of a methodology in order to include in the GLOFRIS model a new indicator in case of flood risk events. Preliminary analysis relating the GDP with the potential casualties shows that undeveloped countries have more susceptibility to loss of life in case of flood events. This because the GDP indicator evidences as well the protection measures available in a country.

  3. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils.

    PubMed

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2018-02-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil-zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and intensity of industrial development. The zinc content was affected by soil factors, and the type of land use (arable lands, grasslands, forests, wastelands). A total of 320 soil samples were characterized in terms of physicochemical properties (texture, pH, organic C content, total and available Zn content). Based on the obtained data, assessment of the ecological risk of zinc was conducted using two methods: potential ecological risk index and hazard quotient. Total Zn content in the soils ranged from 8.27 to 7221 mg kg -1 d.m. Based on the surface semivariograms, the highest variability of zinc in the soils was observed from northwest to southeast. The point sources of Zn contamination were located in the northwestern part of the area, near the mining-metallurgical activity involving processing of zinc and lead ores. These findings were confirmed by the arrangement of semivariogram surfaces and bivariate Moran's correlation coefficients. The content of bioavailable forms of zinc was between 0.05 and 46.19 mg kg -1 d.m. (0.01 mol dm -3 CaCl 2 ), and between 0.03 and 71.54 mg kg -1 d.m. (1 mol dm -3 NH 4 NO 3 ). Forest soils had the highest zinc solubility, followed by arable land, grassland and wasteland. PCA showed that organic C was the key factor to control bioavailability of zinc in the soils. The extreme, very high and medium zinc accumulation was found in 69% of studied soils. There is no ecological risk of zinc to living organisms in the study area, and in 90

  4. Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

    2016-01-01

    We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

  5. Antenatal corticosteroids: an assessment of anticipated benefits and potential risks.

    PubMed

    Jobe, Alan H; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2018-04-07

    Antenatal corticosteroids are standard of care for pregnancies at risk of preterm delivery between 24-34 weeks' gestational age. Recent trials demonstrate modest benefits from antenatal corticosteroids for late preterm and elective cesarean deliveries, and antenatal corticosteroids for periviable deliveries should be considered with family discussion. However, many women with threatened preterm deliveries receive antenatal corticosteroids but do not deliver until >34 weeks or at term. The net effect is that a substantial fraction of the delivery population will be exposed to antenatal corticosteroids. There are gaps in accurate assessments of benefits of antenatal corticosteroids because the randomized controlled trials were performed prior to about 1990 in pregnancies generally >28 weeks. The care practices for the mother and infant survival were different than today. The randomized controlled trial data also do not strongly support the optimal interval from antenatal corticosteroid treatment to delivery of 1-7 days. Epidemiology-based studies using large cohorts with >85% of at-risk pregnancies treated with antenatal corticosteroids probably overestimate the benefits of antenatal corticosteroids. Although most of the prematurity-associated mortality is in low-resource environments, the efficacy and safety of antenatal corticosteroids in those environments remain to be evaluated. The short-term benefits of antenatal corticosteroids for high-risk pregnancies in high-resource environments certainly justify antenatal corticosteroids as few risks have been identified over many years. However, cardiovascular and metabolic abnormalities have been identified in large animal models and cohorts of children exposed to antenatal corticosteroids that are consistent with fetal programming for adult diseases. These late effects of antenatal corticosteroids suggest caution for the expanded use of antenatal corticosteroids beyond at-risk pregnancies at 24-34 weeks. A way forward

  6. Susceptibility based upon Chemical Interaction with Disease Processes: Potential Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    One of the challenges facing toxicology and risk assessment is that numerous host and environmental factors may modulate vulnerability and risk. An area of increasing interest is the potential for chemicals to interact with background aging and disease processes, an interaction...

  7. Risk assessment considerations with regard to the potential impacts of pesticides on endangered species.

    PubMed

    Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J

    2015-01-01

    Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.

  8. Generic Assessment Criteria for human health risk assessment of potentially contaminated land in China.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yuanyuan; Nathanail, Paul C

    2009-12-20

    Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC) are derived using widely applicable assumptions about the characteristics and behaviour of contaminant sources, pathways and receptors. GAC provide nationally consistent guidance, thereby saving money and time. Currently, there are no human health based Generic Assessment Criteria (GAC) for contaminated sites in China. Protection of human health is therefore difficult to ensure and demonstrate; and the lack of GAC makes it difficult to tell if there is potential significant risk to human health unless site-specific criteria are derived. This paper derived Chinese GAC (GAC) for five inorganic and eight organic substances for three regions in China for three land uses: urban residential without plant uptake, Chinese cultivated land, and commercial/industrial using the SNIFFER model. The SNIFFER model has been further implemented with a dermal absorption algorithm and the model default input values have been changed to reflect the Chinese exposure scenarios. It is envisaged that the modified SNIFFER model could be used to derive GAC for more contaminants, more Regions, and more land uses. Further research to enhance the reliability and acceptability of the GAC is needed in regional/national surveys in diet and working patterns.

  9. A GIS-based approach for comparative analysis of potential fire risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Ying; Hu, Lieqiu; Liu, Huiping

    2007-06-01

    Urban fires are one of the most important sources of property loss and human casualty and therefore it is necessary to assess the potential fire risk with consideration of urban community safety. Two evaluation models are proposed, both of which are integrated with GIS. One is the single factor model concerning the accessibility of fire passage and the other is grey clustering approach based on the multifactor system. In the latter model, fourteen factors are introduced and divided into four categories involving security management, evacuation facility, construction resistance and fire fighting capability. A case study on campus of Beijing Normal University is presented to express the potential risk assessment models in details. A comparative analysis of the two models is carried out to validate the accuracy. The results are approximately consistent with each other. Moreover, modeling with GIS promotes the efficiency the potential risk assessment.

  10. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    PubMed

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. [Methods for assessing the potential health risks of traces of pharmaceuticals in drinking water].

    PubMed

    Kozísek, Frantisek; Jeligová, Hana

    2012-01-01

    Increasing consumption of pharmaceuticals leads also to higher release of its non-metabolized residues into environment, mostly hydrosphere. Some of these substances may reach also processed drinking water. Although it is found in traces, it causes public concern as it can represent a non-targeted and unwanted medication. Toxicologists and public health authorities are appealed to assess potential health risks carefully and to communicate the risk adequately to public. As health risks assessment of environmental exposure to pharmaceuticals is a new field of expertise, its methodology has not been unified and standardized yet, but several different procedures have been proposed and used. The paper provides overview of these methods.

  12. Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Agostini, Paola; Marcomini, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland). The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. The Potential Contribution of Advanced Imaging Techniques to Developmental Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neuropathologic assessment provides critical data essential to developmental neurotoxicity risk assessment. There are a number of objectives in conducting a neuropathologic assessment to effectively support risk assessment. These include a comprehensive assessment of the adult an...

  14. POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GENOMICS FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS AT EPA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Benson, W.H., K. Gallagher and K. Dearfield. In press. Potential Implications of Genomics for Regulatory and Risk Assessment Applications at EPA (Abstract). To be presented at the SETAC Fourth World Congress, 14-18 November 2004, Portland, OR. 1 p. (ERL,GB R1002).

    Advance...

  15. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GENOMICS ON EPA REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Gallagher, Kathryn and William Benson. In press. Potential Impacts of Genomics on EPA Regulatory and Risk Assessment (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington, DC. 1 p. (ERL,GB R991).

    Advances in ge...

  16. Potential Risks of Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Persons Who Inject Drugs.

    PubMed

    Roth, Alexis M; Rossi, John; Goldshear, Jesse L; Truong, Quan; Armenta, Richard F; Lankenau, Stephen E; Garfein, Richard S; Simmons, Janie

    2017-06-07

    Ecological momentary assessment (EMA)-which often involves brief surveys delivered via mobile technology-has transformed our understanding of the individual and contextual micro-processes associated with legal and illicit drug use. However, little empirical research has focused on participant's perspective on the probability and magnitude of potential risks in EMA studies. To garner participant perspectives on potential risks common to EMA studies of illicit drug use. We interviewed 38 persons who inject drugs living in San Diego (CA) and Philadelphia (PA), United States. They completed simulations of an EMA tool and then underwent a semi-structured interview that systematically explored domains of risk considered within the proposed revisions to the Federal Policy for the Protection of Human Subjects or the "Common Rule." Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded systematically to explore psychological, physical, social, legal, and informational risks from participation. Participants perceived most risks to be minimal. Some indicated that repetitive questioning about mood or drug use could cause psychological (i.e., anxiety) or behavioral risks (i.e., drug use relapse). Ironically, the questions that were viewed as risky were considered motivational to engage in healthy behaviors. The most cited risks were legal and social risks stemming from participant concerns about data collection and security. Improving our understanding of these issues is an essential first step to protect human participants in future EMA research. We provide a brief set of recommendations that can aid in the design and ethics review of the future EMA protocol with substance using populations.

  17. Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

  18. Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

    2014-03-01

    Aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and predict the trend of soil heavy metal pollution around a~coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in an order of E(Cd) > E(Pb) > E(Cu) > E(Cr) > E(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor led to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, and the fixed number of years exceeding standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metal, and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provide some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent and decrease heavy metal pollution around coal gangue dump in Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

  19. Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  20. Pharmaceuticals residues in selected tropical surface water bodies from Selangor (Malaysia): Occurrence and potential risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Shaifuddin, Siti Norashikin Mohamad; Sukiman, Syazwani; Nasir, Fauzan Adzima Mohd; Hanafi, Zanjabila; Kamarudin, Norizah; Ismail, Tengku Hanidza Tengku; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

    2018-06-11

    This study investigated the occurrence of nine pharmaceuticals (amoxicillin, caffeine, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, dexamethasone, diclofenac, nitrofurazone, sulfamethoxazole, and triclosan) and to evaluate potential risks (human health and ecotoxicological) in Lui, Gombak and Selangor (Malaysia) rivers using commercial competitive Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) kit assays. Physicochemical properties of these rivers showed the surface samples belong to Class II of Malaysian National Water Quality Standards which requires conventional treatment before consumption. All the pharmaceuticals were detected in all three rivers except for triclosan, dexamethasone and diclofenac which were not detected in few of sampling locations in these three rivers. Highest pharmaceutical concentrations were detected in Gombak river in line of being as one of the most polluted rivers in Malaysia. Ciprofloxacin concentrations were detected in all the sampling locations with the highest at 299.88 ng/L. While triclosan, dexamethasone and diclofenac concentrations were not detected in a few of sampling locations in these three rivers. All these nine pharmaceuticals were within the levels reported previously in literature. Pharmaceutical production, wastewater treatment technologies and treated sewage effluent were found as the potential sources which can be related with pharmaceuticals occurrence in surface water samples. Potential human risk assessment showed low health risk except for ciprofloxacin and dexamethasone. Instead, ecotoxicological risk assessment indicated moderate risks were present for these rivers. Nevertheless, results confirmation using instrumental techniques is needed for higher degree of specificity. It is crucial to continuously monitor the surface water bodies for pharmaceuticals using a cost-effective prioritisation approach to assess sensitive sub-populations risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Proposal and application of a regional methodology of comparative risk assessment for potentially contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Marzocchini, Manrico; Tatàno, Fabio; Moretti, Michela Simona; Antinori, Caterina; Orilisi, Stefano

    2018-06-05

    A possible approach for determining soil and groundwater quality criteria for contaminated sites is the comparative risk assessment. Originating from but not limited to Italian interest in a decentralised (regional) implementation of comparative risk assessment, this paper first addresses the proposal of an original methodology called CORIAN REG-M , which was created with initial attention to the context of potentially contaminated sites in the Marche Region (Central Italy). To deepen the technical-scientific knowledge and applicability of the comparative risk assessment, the following characteristics of the CORIAN REG-M methodology appear to be relevant: the simplified but logical assumption of three categories of factors (source and transfer/transport of potential contamination, and impacted receptors) within each exposure pathway; the adaptation to quality and quantity of data that are available or derivable at the given scale of concern; the attention to a reliable but unsophisticated modelling; the achievement of a conceptual linkage to the absolute risk assessment approach; and the potential for easy updating and/or refining of the methodology. Further, the application of the CORIAN REG-M methodology to some case-study sites located in the Marche Region indicated the following: a positive correlation can be expected between air and direct contact pathway scores, as well as between individual pathway scores and the overall site scores based on a root-mean-square algorithm; the exposure pathway, which presents the highest variability of scores, tends to be dominant at sites with the highest computed overall site scores; and the adoption of a root-mean-square algorithm can be expected to emphasise the overall site scoring.

  2. Potential human health risks from metals and As via Odontesthes bonariensis consumption and ecological risk assessments in a eutrophic lake.

    PubMed

    Monferran, Magdalena V; Garnero, Paola Lorena; Wunderlin, Daniel A; Bistoni, María de los Angeles

    2016-07-01

    The concentration of Al, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Hg, Sr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Pb and As was analyzed in water, sediment, and muscle of Odontesthes bonariensis from the eutrophic San Roque Lake (Córdoba-Argentina). The monitoring campaign was performed during the wet, dry and intermediate season. The concentration of Cr, Fe, Pb, Zn, Al and Cd in water exceeded the limits considered as hazardous for aquatic life. The highest metal concentrations were observed in sediment, intermediate concentrations, in fish muscle, and the lowest in water, with the exception of Cr, Zn, As and Hg, which were the highest in fish muscle. Potential ecological risk analysis of heavy metal concentrations in sediment indicated that the San Roque Lake posed a low ecological risk in all sampling periods. The target hazard quotients (THQs) and carcinogenic risk (CR) for individual metals showed that As in muscle was particularly hazardous, posing a potential risk for fishermen and the general population during all sampling periods. Hg poses a potential risk for fishermen only in the intermediate season. It is important to highlight that none of these two elements exceeded the limits considered as hazardous for aquatic life in water and sediment. This result proves the importance of performing measurements of contaminants, in both abiotic and biotic compartments, to assess the quality of food resources. These results suggest that the consumption of this fish species from this reservoir is not completely safe for human health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

  4. Risk assessment and rehabilitation potential of a millennium city dumpsite in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Ojuri, O O; Ayodele, F O; Oluwatuyi, O E

    2018-06-01

    Management of the ever-increasing generated solid waste had been a difficulty for state governments in Nigeria. The high costs connected to this waste management which had encumbered the state budget, ignorance or lack of understanding of resourceful waste management and insensitivity to environmental concerns may have led to partial neglect of this sector. This research paper is aimed at evaluating the rehabilitation potential and the risk level of Igbatoro dumpsite, an Ondo state-managed waste dumpsite which predominantly receives the waste of Akure and its environs. In determining rehabilitation/reconstruction potentials and assessing the risk of the dumpsite, an Integrated Risk Based Approach (IRBA) was considered. The Risk Index (RI) was calculated from the addition of the sensitivity index output with the attribute weightage of the twenty-seven (27) parameters studied. A total risk index of 571.58 was obtained for Igbatoro dumpsite indicating moderate hazard evaluation. Questionnaires distributed to dwellers around the dumpsite also showed that 83.6% of those interviewed agreed that the present management of the dumpsite is poor while 81.8% supported rehabilitation of the dumpsite. Hence, reconstruction of the Igbatoro dumpsite to an endurable and controlled landfill is hereby recommended. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Tolaymat, Thabet; El Badawy, Amro; Sequeira, Reynold; Genaidy, Ash

    2015-11-15

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture "what is known" and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. [Assessment of heavy metal pollution and potential ecological risks of urban soils in Kaifeng City, China].

    PubMed

    Li, Yi-Meng; Ma, Jian-Hua; Liu, De-Xin; Sun, Yan-Li; Chen, Yan-Fang

    2015-03-01

    Ninety-nine topsoil (0-15 cm) samples were collected from Kaifeng City, China using the grid method, and then the concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the samples were measured by standard methods. Soil pollution levels and potential ecological risks of the heavy metals were assessed using the pollution load index (PLI) and potential ecological risk index (RI), respectively. Ordinary Kriging interpolation technique was employed to investigate the spatial distribution of PLI and RI of the city. The results showed that high pollution of Cd occurred in Kaifeng urban soils, and there was moderate pollution of Zn, slight pollution of Pb and Cu, and no pollution of Ni, Cr and As. Very high ecological risk was posed by Cd and low risk by other metals. The mean PLI of the 7 metals from all sample points was 2.53, which was categorized as moderate pollution. The average RI was 344.58 which represented a considerable ecological risk. PLI and RI shared a similar spatial distribution with high values centralized in the old industrial area in the southeast and railway stations for passengers and goods in the south of the city, followed by the old town within the ancient city wall, and low values located in the north and west areas. Cadmium was the main factor for both soil pollution and potential ecological risk primarily due to farmland topsoil in the eastern suburb of Kaifeng City with high Cd concentrations resulted from sewage irrigation deposited in the urban area by wind, human activities such as soot discharged from the chemical fertilizer plant of Kaifeng, transportation and coal combustion.

  7. Human health risk assessment of nitrosamines and nitramines for potential application in CO2 capture.

    PubMed

    Ravnum, S; Rundén-Pran, E; Fjellsbø, L M; Dusinska, M

    2014-07-01

    Emission and accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere exert an environmental and climate change challenge. An attempt to deal with this challenge is made at Mongstad by application of amines for CO2 capture and storage (CO2 capture Mongstad (CCM) project). As part of the CO2 capture process, nitrosamines and nitramines may be emitted. Toxicological testing of nitrosamines and nitramines indicate a genotoxic potential of these substances. Here we present a risk characterization and assessment for five nitrosamines (N-Nitrosodi-methylamine (NDMA) N-Nitrosodi-ethylamine (NDEA), N-Nitroso-morpholine (NNM), N-Nitroso-piperidine (NPIP), and Dinitroso-piperazine (DNP)) and two nitramines (N-Methyl-nitramine (NTMA), Dimethyl-nitramine (NDTMA)), which are potentially emitted from the CO2 capture plant (CCP). Human health risk assessment of genotoxic non-threshold substances is a heavily debated topic, and no consensus methodology exists internationally. Extrapolation modeling from high-dose animal exposures to low-dose human exposures can be crucial for the final risk calculation. In the work presented here, different extrapolation models are discussed, and suggestions on applications are given. Then, preferred methods for calculating derived minimal effect level (DMEL) are presented with the selected nitrosamines and nitramines. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Occurrence and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements and typical organic pollutants in contaminated rural soils.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yongfeng; Dai, Shixiang; Meng, Ke; Wang, Yuting; Ren, Wenjie; Zhao, Ling; Christie, Peter; Teng, Ying

    2018-07-15

    The residual levels and risk assessment of several potentially toxic elements (PTEs), phthalate esters (PAEs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in rural soils near different types of pollution sources in Tianjin, China, were studied. The soils were found to be polluted to different extents with PTEs, PAEs and PAHs from different pollution sources. The soil concentrations of chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), acenaphthylene (Any) and acenaphthene (Ane) were higher than their corresponding regulatory reference limits. The health risk assessment model used to calculate human exposure indicates that both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks from selected pollutants were generally acceptable or close to acceptable. Different types of pollution sources and soil physicochemical properties substantially affected the soil residual concentrations of and risks from these pollutants. PTEs in soils collected from agricultural lands around industrial and residential areas and organic pollutants (PAEs and PAHs) in soils collected from agricultural areas around livestock breeding were higher than those from other types of pollution sources and merit long-term monitoring. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Bioavailability and health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in Thriasio Plain, near Athens, Greece.

    PubMed

    Antoniadis, Vasileios; Golia, Evangelia E; Shaheen, Sabry M; Rinklebe, Jörg

    2017-04-01

    Elevated concentrations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) are usually found in areas of intense industrial activity. Thriasio Plain is a plain near Athens, Greece, where most of the heavy industry of the country has been situated for decades, but it also is a residential and horticultural area. We aimed at measuring the levels of PTEs in soils and indigenous plant species and assessing the health risk associated with direct soil ingestion. Samples of soils at roadsides and growing plants were collected from 31 sites of that area. Concentrations of Al, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured in both soils (as pseudo-total) and aerial plant tissues. We found that As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were higher than maximum regulatory limits. Element concentrations in plants were rather lower than expected, probably because indigenous plants have developed excluder behaviour over time. Copper and Zn soil-to-plant coefficients were highest among the other elements; for Cu this was unexpected, and probably associated with recent Cu-releasing industrial activity. Risk assessment analysis indicated that As was the element contributing more than 50 % of the health risk related to direct soil ingestion, followed by Cr, Pb, and, surprisingly, Mn. We concluded that in a multi-element contamination situation, elevated risk of PTEs (such as As, Cr and Pb) may reduce the tolerance limits of exposure to less-toxic elements (here, Mn).

  10. Human health risk assessment for potentially toxic metals (PTEs) in Acerra' s area (Campanian Region, Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezza, Carmela; Sorvari, Jaana; Albanese, Stefano; Matar, Thiombane; Lima, Annamaria; De Vivo, Benedetto

    2017-04-01

    Acerra's territory is situated in the Agro Aversano area. It is characterized by considerable anthropogenic pollution, caused by the illegal dumping and burning of waste since the 1990s. This area has also become highly urbanized and it is undergoing continuous changes in land-use patterns. Altogether 60 % of the total area is dedicated to agriculture, cereals, potato, tobacco and vegetables being the main crops, while 20 % of the area is urban and peri-urban. The remaining part is devoted to industrial use. The waste treatment plant, which incinerates mixed municipal solid waste from most of the municipalities around the city of Naples since 2009, is a potential major source of industrial pollution in the area. The aim of this study was to investigate the level of environmental contamination in Acerra and assess the consequential health risks. 178 topsoil samples and 10 food samples (corn and Chicorium endive) were taken within the whole study area. All samples were analysed for 15 elements (As, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Sn, Tl, V and Zn) at Bureau Veritas Analytical Laboratories (Vancouver, Canada) by ICP-MS and ICP-ES after an aqua-regia digestion. We calculated enrichment factors and pollution indexes of the PTEs in soil and vegetables by comparing their concentrations with the regional background level and trigger and action values for residential/recreational and industrial/commercial land use set in the Italian Environmental Law (152/06). We also calculated the soil-to-plant bio-concentration factor for critical PTEs. In the human health risk assessment, we focused on Be, Cu, Pb, and Zn since they were identified as the most critical elements based on the pollution indexes. We drew up a conceptual model to describe the formation of human health risks in the study area and divided it into agricultural, urban and industrial subareas. Considering the land use and environmental conditions, the following exposure routes are relevant in the formation

  11. Formaldehyde and LeukemiA: Epidemiology, Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Formaldehyde is widely used in the United States and other countries. Occupational and environmental exposures to formaldehyde may be associated with an increased risk of leukemia in exposed individuals. However, risk assessment of formaldehyde and leukemia has been challenging ...

  12. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    PubMed

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Potential health risk assessment of heavy metals via consumption of caviar of Persian sturgeon.

    PubMed

    Sobhanardakani, S

    2017-10-15

    Caviar may contain high levels of toxic metals. Therefore determination of health risk assessment of the heavy metals in this luxury product is vital. In this study, an Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometer and a Direct Mercury Analyzer were used to assess the contents of elements in caviar of wild Persian sturgeon. The results showed that the contents of Ba, Cr, Fe, Hg, Mn and Zn (mgkg -1 ) in caviar samples were 0.95, 0.27, 71.3, 1.44, 0.01 and 17.0, respectively. Also, Health Risk Index values were within the safe limits (HRI<1), and there is no potential health risk for adults and children via consumption of caviar. Finally, considering the contents of Fe and Hg were higher than Maximum Permissible Limits in the caviar samples related to the discharge of pollutants into the aquatic environment, monitoring of chemicals accumulation in the foodstuff is recommended. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Leakage Risk Assessment for a Potential CO2 Storage Project in Saskatchewan, Canada

    SciTech Connect

    Houseworth, J.E.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Mazzoldi, A.

    2011-05-01

    A CO{sub 2} sequestration project is being considered to (1) capture CO{sub 2} emissions from the Consumers Cooperative Refineries Limited at Regina, Saskatchewan and (2) geologically sequester the captured CO{sub 2} locally in a deep saline aquifer. This project is a collaboration of several industrial and governmental organizations, including the Petroleum Technology Research Centre (PTRC), Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC), SaskEnvironment Go Green Fund, SaskPower, CCRL, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Enbridge. The project objective is to sequester 600 tonnes CO{sub 2}/day. Injection is planned to start in 2012 or 2013 for a period of 25 years for a total storagemore » of approximately 5.5 million tonnes CO{sub 2}. This report presents an assessment of the leakage risk of the proposed project using a methodology known as the Certification Framework (CF). The CF is used for evaluating CO{sub 2} leakage risk associated with geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as brine leakage risk owing to displacement and pressurization of brine by the injected CO{sub 2}. We follow the CF methodology by defining the entities (so-called Compartments) that could be impacted by CO{sub 2} leakage, the CO{sub 2} storage region, the potential for leakage along well and fault pathways, and the consequences of such leakage. An understanding of the likelihood and consequences of leakage forms the basis for understanding CO{sub 2} leakage risk, and forms the basis for recommendations of additional data collection and analysis to increase confidence in the risk assessment.« less

  15. Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

    2015-12-01

    Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation

  16. Potential Dermal Exposure to Flonicamid and Risk Assessment of Applicators During Treatment in Apple Orchards.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Mei-Ai; Yu, Aili; Zhu, Yong-Zhe; Kim, Jeong-Han

    2015-01-01

    Exposure and risk assessments of flonicamid for applicators were performed in apple orchards in Korea. Fifteen experiments were done with two experienced applicators under typical field conditions using a speed sprayer. In this study, cotton gloves, socks, masks, and dermal patches were used to monitor potential dermal exposure to flonicamid, and personal air samplers with XAD-2 resin and glass fiber filter were used to monitor potential inhalation exposure. The analytical methods were validated for the limit of detection, limit of quantitation, reproducibility, linearity of the calibration curve, and recovery of flonicamid from various exposure matrices. The results were encouraging and acceptable for an exposure study. The applicability of XAD-2 resin was evaluated via a trapping efficiency and breakthrough test. During the mixing/loading, the average total dermal exposure was 22.6 μg of flonicamid, corresponding to 4.5×10(-5)% of the prepared amount. For the spraying, the potential dermal exposure was 9.32 mg, and the ratio to applied amount was 1.9 × 10(-2%). The primary exposed body parts were the thigh (2.90 mg), upper arm (1.75 mg), and lower leg (1.66 mg). By comparison, absorbable quantity of exposure was small, only 1.62 μg (3.2×10(-6)%). The margin of safety (MOS) were calculated for risk assessment, in all sets of trials, MOS > 1, indicating the exposure level of flonicamid was considered to be safe in apple orchards. Although this was a limited study, it provided a good estimate of flonicamid exposure for orchard applicators.

  17. Improving the Clinical Pharmacologic Assessment of Abuse Potential: Part 1: Regulatory Context and Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Sellers, Edward M

    2018-02-01

    This article brings to the attention of drug developers the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) recent final Guidance to Industry on Assessment of Abuse Potential and provides practical suggestions about compliance with the Guidance. The Guidance areas are reviewed, analyzed, and placed in the context of current scientific knowledge and best practices to mitigate regulatory risk. The Guidance provides substantial new detail on what needs to be done at all stages of drug development for central nervous system-active drugs. However, because many psychopharmacologic agents have unique preclinical and clinical features, the plan for each agent needs to be not only carefully prepared but also reviewed and approved by the FDA. Examples are provided where assumptions about interpretation of the Guidance can delay development. If the expertise and experience needed for assessing abuse potential during drug development do not exist within a company, external preclinical and clinical expert should be involved. Consultation with the FDA is encouraged and important because the specific requirements for each drug will vary.

  18. Human ex-vivo action potential model for pro-arrhythmia risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah

    2016-01-01

    While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2 Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. PMID:27235787

  19. Human ex-vivo action potential model for pro-arrhythmia risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah

    2016-01-01

    While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Potential for Incorporation of Genetic Polymorphism Data in Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    This overview summarizes several EPA assessment publications evaluating the potential impact of genetic polymorphisms in ten metabolizing enzymes on the variability in enzyme function across ethnically diverse populations.

  1. [Spatial Distribution and Potential Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soils and Sediments in Shunde Waterway, Southern China].

    PubMed

    Cai, Yi-min; Chen, Wei-ping; Peng, Chi; Wang, Tie-yu; Xiao, Rong-bo

    2016-05-15

    Environmental quality of soils and sediments around water source area can influence the safety of potable water of rivers. In order to study the pollution characteristics, the sources and ecological risks of heavy metals Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd in water source area, surface soils around the waterway and sediments in the estuary of main tributaries were collected in Shunde, and ecological risks of heavy metals were assessed by two methods of potential ecological risk assessment. The mean contents of Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd in the surface soils were 186.80, 65.88, 54.56, 32.47, 22.65 and 0.86 mg · kg⁻¹ respectively, and they were higher than their soil background values except those of Cu and Ni. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd in the sediments were 312.11, 111.41, 97.87, 92.32, 29.89 and 1.72 mg · kg⁻¹ respectively, and they were higher than their soil background values except that of Ni. The results of principal component analysis illustrated that the main source of Cr and Ni in soils was soil parent materials, and Zn, Pb, Cu and Cd in soils mainly came from wastewater discharge of local manufacturing industry. The six heavy metals in sediments mainly originated from industry emissions around the Shunde waterway. The results of potential ecological risk assessment integrating environmental bioavailability of heavy metals showed that Zn, Cu, Pb and Ni had a slight potential ecological risk. Cd had a slight potential ecological risk in surface soils, but a moderate potential ecological risk in surfaces sediments. Because the potential ecological risk assessment integrating environmental bioavailability of heavy metals took the soil properties and heavy metal forms into account, its results of risks were lower than those of Hakanson methods, and it could avoid overestimating the potential risks of heavy metals.

  2. GM Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  3. Preliminary Assessment of Health Risks of Potentially Toxic Elements in Settled Dust over Beijing Urban Area

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Dejun; Zhan, Changlin; Yang, Guanglin; Liu, Xingqi; Yang, Jinsong

    2016-01-01

    To examine levels, health risks, sources, and spatial distributions of potentially toxic elements in settled dust over Beijing urban area, 62 samples were collected mostly from residential building outdoor surfaces, and their <63 μm fractions were measured for 12 potentially toxic elements. The results show that V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, and Ba in dust are from predominantly natural sources, whereas Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, and Pb mostly originate from anthropogenic sources. Exposure to these elements in dust has significant non-cancer risks to children but insignificant to adults. Cancer risks of Cr, Co, Ni, As, and Cd via inhalation and dermal contact are below the threshold of 10−6–10−4 but As via dust ingestion shows a tolerable risk. The non-cancer risks to children are contributed mainly (75%) by As, Pb, and Sb, and dominantly (92%) via dust ingestion, with relatively higher risks mainly occurring in the eastern and northeastern Beijing urban areas. Although Cd, Zn, and Cu in dust are heavily affected by anthropogenic sources, their health risks are insignificant. Source appointments suggest that coal burning emissions, the dominant source of As, are likely the largest contributors to the health risk, and traffic-related and industrial emissions are also important because they contribute most of the Pb and Sb in dust. PMID:27187427

  4. Nanomaterial categorization for assessing risk potential to facilitate regulatory decision-making.

    PubMed

    Godwin, Hilary; Nameth, Catherine; Avery, David; Bergeson, Lynn L; Bernard, Daniel; Beryt, Elizabeth; Boyes, William; Brown, Scott; Clippinger, Amy J; Cohen, Yoram; Doa, Maria; Hendren, Christine Ogilvie; Holden, Patricia; Houck, Keith; Kane, Agnes B; Klaessig, Frederick; Kodas, Toivo; Landsiedel, Robert; Lynch, Iseult; Malloy, Timothy; Miller, Mary Beth; Muller, Julie; Oberdorster, Gunter; Petersen, Elijah J; Pleus, Richard C; Sayre, Philip; Stone, Vicki; Sullivan, Kristie M; Tentschert, Jutta; Wallis, Philip; Nel, Andre E

    2015-01-01

    For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials and nanoenabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regulatory purposes to allow rapid material categorization according to human health and environmental risk potential, so that materials of high concern can be targeted for additional scrutiny, while material categories that pose the least risk can receive expedited review. Using carbon nanotubes as an example, we discuss how data from alternative testing strategies can be used to facilitate engineered nanomaterial categorization according to risk potential and how such an approach could facilitate regulatory decision-making in the future.

  5. Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

    2011-01-01

    Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

  6. Potential Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrent Disasters on Sloping Fields in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    GAO, X.

    2017-12-01

    China's sloping fields have the problems of low production and serious soil erosion, and mountain torrent disasters will bring more serious soil and water loss to traditional extensive exploitation of sloping field resources. In this paper, China's sloping fields were classified into three grades, such as slightly steep, steep and very steep grade. According to the geological hazards prevention and control regulation, the historical data of China's mountain torrent disasters were spatially interpolated and divided into five classes, such as extremely low, low, middle, high and extremely high level. And the risk level map of mountain torrents was finished in ArcGIS. By using overlaying analysis on sloping fields and risk level map, the potential risk regionalization map of sloping fields in various slope grades was obtained finally. The results shows that the very steep and steep sloping fields are mainly distributed in the first or second stage terraces in China. With the increase of hazard risk level, the area of sloping fields decreases rapidly and the sloping fields in extremely low and low risk levels of mountain torrents reach 98.9%. With the increase of slope grade, the area of sloping fields in various risk levels also declines sharply. The sloping fields take up approximately 60 65% and 26 30% in slightly steep and steep grade areas separately at different risk level. The risk regionalization map can provide effective information for returning farmland to forests or grassland and reducing water and soil erosion of sloping fields in the future.

  7. Wildland fire potential: A tool for assessing wildfire risk and fuels management needs

    Treesearch

    Greg Dillon; James Menakis; Frank Fay

    2015-01-01

    Federal wildfire managers often want to know, over large landscapes, where wildfires are likely to occur and how intense they may be. To meet this need we developed a map that we call wildland fire potential (WFP) - a raster geospatial product that can help to inform evaluations of wildfire risk or prioritization of fuels management needs across very large spatial...

  8. Chapter 6: Ecotoxicology, Environmental Risk Assessment & Potential Impact on Human Health

    EPA Science Inventory

    This chapter examines potential risks posed by pharmaceuticals present in the aquatic environment to humans and aquatic life. We begin by describing the mechanisms by which pharmaceuticals enter the vertebrate body, produce effects and leave the body. Then we describe theoretical...

  9. Spatial assessment of the potential risk of avian influenza A virus infection in three raptor species in Japan

    PubMed Central

    MORIGUCHI, Sachiko; ONUMA, Manabu; GOKA, Koichi

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza A, a highly pathogenic avian influenza, is a lethal infection in certain species of wild birds, including some endangered species. Raptors are susceptible to avian influenza, and spatial risk assessment of such species may be valuable for conservation planning. We used the maximum entropy approach to generate potential distribution models of three raptor species from presence-only data for the mountain hawk-eagle Nisaetus nipalensis, northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus, surveyed during the winter from 1996 to 2001. These potential distribution maps for raptors were superimposed on avian influenza A risk maps of Japan, created from data on incidence of the virus in wild birds throughout Japan from October 2010 to March 2011. The avian influenza A risk map for the mountain hawk-eagle showed that most regions of Japan had a low risk for avian influenza A. In contrast, the maps for the northern goshawk and peregrine falcon showed that their high-risk areas were distributed on the plains along the Sea of Japan and Pacific coast. We recommend enhanced surveillance for each raptor species in high-risk areas and immediate establishment of inspection systems. At the same time, ecological risk assessments that determine factors, such as the composition of prey species, and differential sensitivity of avian influenza A virus between bird species should provide multifaceted insights into the total risk assessment of endangered species. PMID:26972333

  10. [Spatial distribution and potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Yalu River estuary wetland mudflat.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Chun Peng; Li, Fu Xiang

    2016-09-01

    Kriging interpolation analysis was conducted with ArcGIS to find out the distribution characteristics of heavy metals concentrations in the surface sediments of the coastal wetland mudflat on the Yalu River estuary, environmental risk index and Hakanson potential ecological risk index were used to assess their extents of pollution in this area.The concentrations of heavy metals in the surface sediments of the study area were at a relatively high level compared with the typical estuarine wetland. The concentration of heavy metals in the east was higher than that in the west, and in the human activity area, the concentration was higher. Cu was found to contribute the most to the pollution status based on environmental risk index method, while Hg and Cd produced the greatest potential ecological harm according to Hankanson Potential ecological risk index method. The average potential ecological risk index (RI) of the Yalu River estuary wetland was 189.30 (ranged from 93.65-507.20), suggesting a moderate ecological risk. However, the potential ecological risk was highest in the east and should be treated as the major heavy metal pollution prevention area in the future.

  11. Concentration of heavy metals in vegetables and potential health risk assessment in China.

    PubMed

    Zhong, Taiyang; Xue, Dawei; Zhao, Limin; Zhang, Xiuying

    2018-02-01

    Food safety is an important issue in the world. This study assessed the health risk for the Chinese public when consuming vegetables grown in China, based on 1335 data records from 220 published papers during 2007-2016. The results showed that the average of Pb, Cd, and Hg concentration in vegetables was 0.106, 0.041, and 0.008 mg/kg, which were lower than the maximum allowable concentrations, respectively. Leaf vegetables contained higher heavy metals than root vegetables and fruit vegetables. On a provincial scale, the highest Pb, Cd, and Hg concentrations in vegetables were determined by those in soil and atmosphere. The total health risk index showed that people in Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Hubei provinces in southern China, and Liaoning Province in northeast China, faced a high risk of Pb, Cd, and Hg when consuming vegetables.

  12. LIFE-STAGE DEPENDENT DOSIMETRY AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACHES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increasingly reproductive and developmental toxicity studies are utilized in assessing the potential for adverse affects in pregnant women, nursing infants, and children. These studies largely have been utilized based upon the dose to the mother due to the complexity of describi...

  13. Functional Movement ScreenTM and history of injury in assessment of potential risk of injury among team handball players.

    PubMed

    Slodownik, Robert; Ogonowska-Slodownik, Anna; Morgulec-Adamowicz, Natalia

    2017-09-29

    Handball is known to be one of the team sports representing the highest risk of injury. Several investigators have tried to identify injury risk factors in team sports including handball and suggested the need to develop an optimal tool to capture and quantify the potential risk of injury. The aim of the study was to evaluate potential risk of injury among handball players. It was a mixed design study. Handball players from 1st and 2nd division were evaluated (n = 30) using the Functional Movement ScreenTM (FMSTM). Additionally, self-reported history of injury was collected during FMSTM evaluation and after 6 months. Competitive level, training experience, playing position, anthropometric features, symmetry of movement patterns and history of previous injury were analysed while assessing the potential risk of injury. Significant difference between the right and left side (upper limb) was revealed for Shoulder Mobility Test (U = 308.5, p = 0.014). Odds Ratio analysis revealed that having previous injury in the last 12 months is the only statistically significant injury risk factor (OR = 13.71, p = 0.02). Based on this study we can assume that previous injury history reports are crucial in predicting injuries. FMSTM can help in identifying a typical adaptation in throwing shoulder among handball players, but should not be used alone to assess injury risk.

  14. Assessments of levels, potential ecological risk, and human health risk of heavy metals in the soils from a typical county in Shanxi Province, China.

    PubMed

    Pan, Libo; Ma, Jin; Hu, Yu; Su, Benying; Fang, Guangling; Wang, Yue; Wang, Zhanshan; Wang, Lei; Xiang, Bao

    2016-10-01

    A total of 128 surface soil samples were collected, and eight heavy metals, including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn, and Hg, were analyzed for their concentrations, potential ecological risks, and human health risks. The mean concentrations of these eight metals were lower than the soil environmental quality standards in China, while they were slightly higher than the background values in Shanxi Province. The enrichment factor, coefficient variation, and potential ecological risk index were used to assess the pollution and eco-risk level of heavy metals, among which, Cd and Hg showed higher pollution levels and potential risks than the others in the studied area. Moreover, multivariate geostatistical analysis suggested that Hg originated mainly from point sources such as industrial emissions, while agricultural activity is the predominant factor for Cd. The human health risk assessment indicated that non-carcinogenic values were below the threshold values. The total carcinogenic risks due to As, Cr, and Ni were within the acceptable range for adults, while for children, they were higher than the threshold value (1.0E-04), indicating that children are facing higher threat to heavy metals in soils. These results provide basic information on heavy metal pollution control and human health risk assessment management in the study regions.

  15. A framework for spatial risk assessments: Potential impacts of nonindigenous invasive species on native species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, A.R.; Parris, L.

    2006-01-01

    Many populations of wild animals and plants are declining and face increasing threats from habitat fragmentation and loss as well as exposure to stressors ranging from toxicants to diseases to invasive nonindigenous species. We describe and demonstrate a spatially explicit ecological risk assessment that allows for the incorporation of a broad array of information that may influence the distribution of an invasive species, toxicants, or other stressors, and the incorporation of landscape variables that may influence the spread of a species or substances. The first step in our analyses is to develop species models and quantify spatial overlap between stressor and target organisms. Risk is assessed as the product of spatial overlap and a hazard index based on target species vulnerabilities to the stressor of interest. We illustrate our methods with an example in which the stressor is the ecologically destructive nonindigenous ant, Solenopsis invicta, and the targets are two declining vertebrate species in the state of South Carolina, USA. A risk approach that focuses on landscapes and that is explicitly spatial is of particular relevance as remaining undeveloped lands become increasingly uncommon and isolated and more important in the management and recovery of species and ecological systems. Effective ecosystem management includes the control of multiple stressors, including invasive species with large impacts, understanding where those impacts may be the most severe, and implementing management strategies to reduce impacts. Copyright ?? 2006 by the author(s).

  16. Assessment of ecological and human health risks of metals in urban road dust based on geochemical fractionation and potential bioavailability.

    PubMed

    Jayarathne, Ayomi; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Ayoko, Godwin A; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2018-09-01

    Metals are one of the primary pollutants in the urban environment that pose adverse ecological and human health impacts. Therefore, the accurate quantification of the risk posed by metals is essential for developing effective risk management strategies to safeguard the urban environment. This study assessed the ecological and human health risks of six metals, commonly present in road dust by improving the original risk indices based on their potential bioavailability characteristics. The bioavailability of metals was determined by considering their distribution between the different geochemical phases of exchangeable, reducible, oxidisable and residual. The results of the modified risk analysis indicated that the road dust poses a low ecological risk in most of the study sites. According to the present situation, the non-cancer risk of individual metals for both, children and adults followed the decreasing trend of Pb > Cu > Cr > Zn > Ni > Cd. This study also found that depending on the particle size ranges, the potential of multiple metals being able to cause non-cancer health risk was low at most study sites. In terms of cancer health risk, Cr present at most of the study sites was found to be within the cancer threshold limit, even though the Cr content and the bioavailable fractions were relatively low. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Heavy metal contamination in the muscle of Aegean chub (Squalius fellowesii) and potential risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Şaşi, Hüseyin; Yozukmaz, Aykut; Yabanli, Murat

    2018-03-01

    Especially after the industrial revolution, the amount of contaminants released in aquatic ecosystems has considerably increased. For this reason, the necessity to carry on research on the existence of contaminants, specifically heavy metals, has emerged. In this study, heavy metal concentrations in muscle tissues of Aegean chub, which was an endemic species of south western part of Turkey, gathered from Tersakan River were examined. Heavy metal concentrations of the samples were analyzed with ICP-MS. Estimated daily intakes (EDI), target hazard quotient (THQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) of elements were calculated. The heavy metals detected in muscle tissues were Zn > Cu > Cr > Mn > Pb > Cd, consecutively. According to the results of the applied health risk assessment (EDI, THQ and CR) for heavy metal exposure from fish consumption in children and adults, it was determined that there was no any significant threat to human health.

  18. [ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL RISK FOR CONTAMINATION OF SURFACE WATER RESERVOIRS BY PATHOGENS OF HUMAN PARASITIC DISEASES].

    PubMed

    Khromenkova, E P; Dimidova, L L; Dumbadze, O S; Aidinov, G T; Shendo, G L; Agirov, A Kh; Batchaev, Kh Kh

    2015-01-01

    Sanitary and parasitological studies of the waste effluents and surface reservoir waters were conducted in the south of Russia. The efficiency of purification of waste effluents from the pathogens of parasitic diseases was investigated in the region's sewage-purification facilities. The water of the surface water reservoirs was found to contain helminthic eggs and larvae and intestinal protozoan cysts because of the poor purification and disinfection of service fecal sewage waters. The poor purification and disinvasion of waste effluents in the region determine the potential risk of contamination of the surface water reservoirs and infection of the population with the pathogens of human parasitic diseases.

  19. A risk assessment of topical tretinoin as a potential human developmental toxin based on animal and comparative human data.

    PubMed

    Johnson, E M

    1997-03-01

    Although topically applied all-trans-retinoic acid (tretinoin) undergoes minimal absorption and adds negligibly to normal endogenous levels, its safety in humans is occasionally questioned because oral ingestion of retinoids at therapeutic levels is known to entail teratogenic risks. To assess the actual potential for developmental toxicity from treatment with topical tretinoin. Risk assessments were conducted on four known human developmental toxicants (valproic acid, methotrexate, thalidomide, and isotretinoin) and a potential developmental toxicant (acetylsalicylic acid). The margin of safety for each chemical was calculated from the ratio of animal no-observed adverse effect levels to human lowest-observed adverse effect levels or estimated exposure doses. The derived safety margin of more than 100 for topical tretinoin (with 2% absorption) contrasted sharply with the near unity values for valproic acid, methotrexate, thalidomide, and isotretinoin and was larger than that for acetylsalicylic acid. These data support other epidemiologic and animal data that topical tretinoin is not a potential human developmental toxicant.

  20. Next generation microbiological risk assessment-Potential of omics data for hazard characterisation.

    PubMed

    Haddad, Nabila; Johnson, Nick; Kathariou, Sophia; Métris, Aline; Phister, Trevor; Pielaat, Annemarie; Tassou, Chrysoula; Wells-Bennik, Marjon H J; Zwietering, Marcel H

    2018-04-12

    According to the World Health Organization estimates in 2015, 600 million people fall ill every year from contaminated food and 420,000 die. Microbial risk assessment (MRA) was developed as a tool to reduce and prevent risks presented by pathogens and/or their toxins. MRA is organized in four steps to analyse information and assist in both designing appropriate control options and implementation of regulatory decisions and programs. Among the four steps, hazard characterisation is performed to establish the probability and severity of a disease outcome, which is determined as function of the dose of toxin and/or pathogen ingested. This dose-response relationship is subject to both variability and uncertainty. The purpose of this review/opinion article is to discuss how Next Generation Omics can impact hazard characterisation and, more precisely, how it can improve our understanding of variability and limit the uncertainty in the dose-response relation. The expansion of omics tools (e.g. genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics) allows for a better understanding of pathogenicity mechanisms and virulence levels of bacterial strains. Detection and identification of virulence genes, comparative genomics, analyses of mRNA and protein levels and the development of biomarkers can help in building a mechanistic dose-response model to predict disease severity. In this respect, systems biology can help to identify critical system characteristics that confer virulence and explain variability between strains. Despite challenges in the integration of omics into risk assessment, some omics methods have already been used by regulatory agencies for hazard identification. Standardized methods, reproducibility and datasets obtained from realistic conditions remain a challenge, and are needed to improve accuracy of hazard characterisation. When these improvements are realized, they will allow the health authorities and government policy makers to prioritize hazards more

  1. An ecological risk assessment of nonnative boas and pythons as potentially invasive species in the United States.

    PubMed

    Reed, Robert N

    2005-06-01

    The growing international trade in live wildlife has the potential to result in continuing establishment of nonnative animal populations in the United States. Snakes may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species, as exemplified by the decimation of Guam's vertebrate fauna by the accidentally introduced brown tree snake. Herein, ecological and commercial predictors of the likelihood of establishment of invasive populations were used to model risk associated with legal commercial imports of 23 species of boas, pythons, and relatives into the United States during the period 1989-2000. Data on ecological variables were collected from multiple sources, while data on commercial variables were collated from import records maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Results of the risk-assessment models indicate that species including boa constrictors (Boa constrictor), ball pythons (Python regius), and reticulated pythons (P. reticulatus) may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species. Recommendations for reducing risk of establishment of invasive populations of snakes and/or pathogens include temporary quarantine of imports to increase detection rates of nonnative pathogens, increasing research attention to reptile pathogens, reducing the risk that nonnative snakes will reach certain areas with high numbers of federally listed species (such as the Florida Keys), and attempting to better educate individuals purchasing reptiles.

  2. The HTA Risk Analysis Chart: Visualising the Need for and Potential Value of Managed Entry Agreements in Health Technology Assessment.

    PubMed

    Grimm, Sabine Elisabeth; Strong, Mark; Brennan, Alan; Wailoo, Allan J

    2017-12-01

    Recent changes to the regulatory landscape of pharmaceuticals may sometimes require reimbursement authorities to issue guidance on technologies that have a less mature evidence base. Decision makers need to be aware of risks associated with such health technology assessment (HTA) decisions and the potential to manage this risk through managed entry agreements (MEAs). This work develops methods for quantifying risk associated with specific MEAs and for clearly communicating this to decision makers. We develop the 'HTA risk analysis chart', in which we present the payer strategy and uncertainty burden (P-SUB) as a measure of overall risk. The P-SUB consists of the payer uncertainty burden (PUB), the risk stemming from decision uncertainty as to which is the truly optimal technology from the relevant set of technologies, and the payer strategy burden (PSB), the additional risk of approving a technology that is not expected to be optimal. We demonstrate the approach using three recent technology appraisals from the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), each of which considered a price-based MEA. The HTA risk analysis chart was calculated using results from standard probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In all three HTAs, the new interventions were associated with substantial risk as measured by the P-SUB. For one of these technologies, the P-SUB was reduced to zero with the proposed price reduction, making this intervention cost effective with near complete certainty. For the other two, the risk reduced substantially with a much reduced PSB and a slightly increased PUB. The HTA risk analysis chart shows the risk that the healthcare payer incurs under unresolved decision uncertainty and when considering recommending a technology that is not expected to be optimal given current evidence. This allows the simultaneous consideration of financial and data-collection MEA schemes in an easily understood format. The use of HTA risk analysis charts will

  3. Micronized copper wood preservatives: an efficiency and potential health risk assessment for copper-based nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Civardi, Chiara; Schwarze, Francis W M R; Wick, Peter

    2015-05-01

    Copper (Cu) is an essential biocide for wood protection, but fails to protect wood against Cu-tolerant wood-destroying fungi. Recently Cu particles (size range: 1 nm-25 μm) were introduced to the wood preservation market. The new generation of preservatives with Cu-based nanoparticles (Cu-based NPs) is reputedly more efficient against wood-destroying fungi than conventional formulations. Therefore, it has the potential to become one of the largest end uses for wood products worldwide. However, during decomposition of treated wood Cu-based NPs and/or their derivate may accumulate in the mycelium of Cu-tolerant fungi and end up in their spores that are dispersed into the environment. Inhaled Cu-loaded spores can cause harm and could become a potential risk for human health. We collected evidence and discuss the implications of the release of Cu-based NPs by wood-destroying fungi and highlight the exposure pathways and subsequent magnitude of health impact. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Potential application of influence diagram as a risk assessment tool in Brownfields sites

    SciTech Connect

    Attoh-Okine, N.O.

    Brownfields are vacant, abandoned, or underutilized commercial and industrial sites and facilities where real or perceived environmental contamination is an obstacle to redevelopment. These sites are vacant because they often do not meet the strict remediation requirements of the Superfund Law. The sites are accessible locations with much of the infrastructure, albeit deteriorated, in place. Thus they also represent an opportunity to slow down suburban and rural sprawl. As a liability, the concern stems from the environment liability of both known and unknown site contamination. Influence diagrams are tools used to represent complex decision problems based on incomplete and uncertainmore » information from a variety of sources. The influence diagrams can be used to divide all uncertainties (Brownfields site infrastructure impact assessment) into subfactors until the level has been reached at which intuitive functions are most effective. Given the importance of uncertainties and the utilities of the Brownfields infrastructure, the use of influence diagrams seem more appropriate for representing and solving risks involved in Brownfields infrastructure assessment.« less

  5. Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Pressures on N and P Loads and Potential Eutrophication Risk at Regional Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupas, R.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Delmas, M.; Moatar, F.

    2014-12-01

    Excessive nutrient loading of freshwater bodies results in increased eutrophication risk worldwide. The processes controlling N/P transfer in agricultural landscapes are well documented through scientific studies conducted in intensively monitored catchments. However, managers need tools to assess water quality and evaluate the contribution of agriculture to eutrophication at regional scales, including unmonitored or poorly monitored areas. To this end, we present an assessment framework which includes: i) a mass-balance model to estimate diffuse N/P transfer and retention and ii) indicators based on N:P:Si molar ratios to assess potential eutrophication risk from external loads. The model, called Nutting (Dupas et al., 2013), integrates variables for both detailed description of agricultural pressures (N surplus, soil P content) and characterisation of physical attributes of catchments (including spatial attributes). It was calibrated on 160 catchments, and applied to 2210 unmonitored headwater bodies in France (Dupas et al., under review). N and P retention represented 53% and 95% of soil N and P surplus, respectively, and was mainly controlled by runoff and an index characterising infiltration/runoff properties. According to our estimates, diffuse agricultural sources represented a mean of 97% of N loads and N exceeded Si in 93% of the catchments, whilst they represented 46% of P loads and P exceeded Si in 26-65% of the catchments. Estimated eutrophication risk was highly sensitive to assumptions about P bioavailability, hence the range of headwaters potentially at risk spanned 26-63% of the catchments, depending on assumptions. To reduce this uncertainty, we recommend introducing P bioavailability tests in water monitoring programs, especially in sensitive areas. Dupas R et al. Assessing N emissions in surface water at the national level: comparison of country-wide vs. regionalized models. Sci Total Environ 2013; 443: 152-62. Dupas R et al. Assessing the impact

  6. Potential use of an arthropod database to support the non-target risk assessment and monitoring of transgenic plants.

    PubMed

    Romeis, Jörg; Meissle, Michael; Alvarez-Alfageme, Fernando; Bigler, Franz; Bohan, David A; Devos, Yann; Malone, Louise A; Pons, Xavier; Rauschen, Stefan

    2014-12-01

    Worldwide, plants obtained through genetic modification are subject to a risk analysis and regulatory approval before they can enter the market. An area of concern addressed in environmental risk assessments is the potential of genetically modified (GM) plants to adversely affect non-target arthropods and the valued ecosystem services they provide. Environmental risk assessments are conducted case-by-case for each GM plant taking into account the plant species, its trait(s), the receiving environments into which the GM plant is to be released and its intended uses, and the combination of these characteristics. To facilitate the non-target risk assessment of GM plants, information on arthropods found in relevant agro-ecosystems in Europe has been compiled in a publicly available database of bio-ecological information during a project commissioned by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Using different hypothetical GM maize case studies, we demonstrate how the information contained in the database can assist in identifying valued species that may be at risk and in selecting suitable species for laboratory testing, higher-tier studies, as well as post-market environmental monitoring.

  7. Multi-Target Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements in Farmland Soil Based on the Environment-Ecological-Health Effect.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhongyang; Meng, Bo; Zhang, Wei; Bai, Jinheng; Ma, Yingxin; Liu, Mingda

    2018-05-28

    There are potential impacts of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) (e.g., Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Zn, Hg, and Pb) in soil from the perspective of the ecological environment and human health, and assessing the pollution and risk level of soil will play an important role in formulating policies for soil pollution control. Lingyuan, in the west of Liaoning Province, China, is a typical low-relief terrain of a hilly area. The object of study in this research is the topsoil of farmland in this area, of which 71 soil samples are collected. In this study, research methods, such as the Nemerow Index, Potential Ecological Hazard Index, Ecological Risk Quotient, Environmental Exposure Hazard Analysis, Positive Matrix Factorization Model, and Land Statistical Analysis, are used for systematical assessment of the pollution scale, pollution level, and source of PTEs, as well as the ecological environmental risks and health risks in the study area. The main conclusions are: The average contents of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Zn, Ni, and Pb of the soil are 5.32 mg/kg, 0.31 mg/kg, 50.44 mg/kg, 47.05 mg/kg, 0.03 mg/kg, 79.36 mg/kg, 26.01 mg/kg, and 35.65 mg/kg, respectively. The contents of Cd, Cu, Zn, and Pb exceed the background value of local soil; Cd content of some study plots exceeds the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard Value (0.6 mg/kg), and the exceeding standard rate of study plots is 5.63%; the comprehensive potential ecological hazard assessment in the study area indicates that the PTEs are at a slight ecological risk; probabilistic hazard quotient assessment indicates that the influence of PTEs on species caused by Cu is at a slight level ( p = 10.93%), and Zn, Pb, and Cd are at an acceptable level. For the ecological process, Zn is at a medium level ( p = 25.78%), Cu is at a slight level (19.77%), and the influence of Cd and Pb are acceptable; human health hazard assessment states that the Non-carcinogenic comprehensive health hazard index HI = 0.16 < 1, indicating that

  8. Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Laurent, Olivier; Ancelet, Sophie; Richardson, David B; Hémon, Denis; Ielsch, Géraldine; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline; Laurier, Dominique

    2013-05-01

    Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards.

  9. Genome-wide screening of indicator genes for assessing the potential carcinogenic risk of Nanjing city drinking water.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Rui; Cheng, Shupei; Li, Aimin; Sun, Jie; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xuxiang

    2011-07-01

    Effects of all pollutants existing in the Nanjing city drinking water (DWNC) on mouse gene transcription levels were measured to assess the DWNC carcinogenic risks and to identify candidate indicator genes for assessing and early warning the cancer risks. Transcriptional expression levels of 14,000 hepatic genes for the treatment group mice (Mus musculus, ICR) fed with DWNC for 90 days were detected using the GeneChip(®) Mouse Genome 430A 2.0 array. The analysis indicated that the transcriptional levels of 294 genes were up-regulated and 542 ones were down-regulated. Of these genes, 12 ones identified to be involved in at least five different types of cancers were further analyzed. An interrogation by Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) revealed that three (including ITGAV, CCND1 and SMAD2) of the 12 genes were mapped to pathway in cancer. Gene Ontology (GO) function annotation also showed that they were associated with the functional categories of cell cycle regulation, adhesion, apoptosis, signal transduction and so on which are closely implicated in tumorigenesis and progression. The correlations between the aberrant expressions of them and the genesis and progression of cancers have been further documented by a number of scientific researches. These results might demonstrate that the potential toxicity and carcinogenic risks were associated with DWNC. Moreover, ITGAV, CCND1 and SMAD2 were identified as the most likely candidate indicator genes for the assessment of the combined carcinogenic risk of all pollutants existing in DWNC.

  10. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  11. Heavy-metal pollution and potential ecological risk assessment of sediments from Baihua Lake, Guizhou, P.R. China.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xianfei; Hu, Jiwei; Li, Cunxiong; Deng, Jiajun; Long, Jian; Qin, Fanxin

    2009-12-01

    Baihua Lake, a man-made reservoir, is one of the five drinking water sources for Guiyang City in China's southwestern province of Guizhou. In the present research, the distribution and accumulation characteristics of heavy metals (Pb, Cd, As, Cu and Zn) for the sediment of this lake were analyzed by examination of 10 recently collected samples. A method based on toxic-response factor was applied to assess the potential ecological risk of these heavy metals to the water body. For comparison, the two sets of reference data representing the pre-industrial and the local baseline pollution levels were employed to derive the accumulating coefficients for the heavy metals under study. The calculated potential ecological risk indices show that the lake was polluted by heavy metals and both cadmium and arsenic loadings were critical factors responsible for the ecological hazards posed to Baihua Lake by the five elements.

  12. Assessing potential changes of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Mário; Calheiros, Tomas; Pinto, Joaquim; Caramelo, Liliana

    2013-04-01

    International Chestnut Conference, West Virginia University, Morgantown, 10-14 July 1992, 175-178. Wilczynski, S. And Podlaski, R, 2007: "The effect of climate on radial growth of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) in the Swietokrzki National Park in Central Poland", J.For.Res., 12, 24-23. Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2008: "Differences in photosynthetic apparatus of leaves from different sides of chestnut canopy", Photosynthetica, 46, 63-72. Dinis, L.T,Peixoto, F., Pinto, T., Costa, R.Bennett, R. N., and Gomes-Laranjo,J., 2011: "Study of morphological and phonological diversity in chestnut trees (Judia variety) as a function of temperature sum". Environ. Exp Bot., 70, 110-120. Pereira, M.G., Caramelo, L., Gouveia, C., Gomes-Laranjo, J., Magalhães, M., 2011: "Assessment of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity". Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1-12, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-12-011. This work was supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022692.

  13. An Assessment of Potential Exposure and Risk from Estrogens in Drinking Water

    PubMed Central

    Caldwell, Daniel J.; Mastrocco, Frank; Nowak, Edward; Johnston, James; Yekel, Harry; Pfeiffer, Danielle; Hoyt, Marilyn; DuPlessie, Beth M.; Anderson, Paul D.

    2010-01-01

    Background Detection of estrogens in the environment has raised concerns in recent years because of their potential to affect both wildlife and humans. Objectives We compared exposures to prescribed and naturally occurring estrogens in drinking water to exposures to naturally occurring background levels of estrogens in the diet of children and adults and to four independently derived acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) to determine whether drinking water intakes are larger or smaller than dietary intake or ADIs. Methods We used the Pharmaceutical Assessment and Transport Evaluation (PhATE) model to predict concentrations of estrogens potentially present in drinking water. Predicted drinking water concentrations were combined with default water intake rates to estimate drinking water exposures. Predicted drinking water intakes were compared to dietary intakes and also to ADIs. We present comparisons for individual estrogens as well as combined estrogens. Results In the analysis we estimated that a child’s exposures to individual prescribed estrogens in drinking water are 730–480,000 times lower (depending upon estrogen type) than exposure to background levels of naturally occurring estrogens in milk. A child’s exposure to total estrogens in drinking water (prescribed and naturally occurring) is about 150 times lower than exposure from milk. Adult margins of exposure (MOEs) based on total dietary exposure are about 2 times smaller than those for children. Margins of safety (MOSs) for an adult’s exposure to total prescribed estrogens in drinking water vary from about 135 to > 17,000, depending on ADI. MOSs for exposure to total estrogens in drinking water are about 2 times lower than MOSs for prescribed estrogens. Depending on the ADI that is used, MOSs for young children range from 28 to 5,120 for total estrogens (including both prescribed and naturally occurring sources) in drinking water. Conclusions The consistently large MOEs and MOSs strongly suggest that

  14. Feasibility Assessment of an EVA Glove Sensing Platform to Evaluate Potential Hand Injury Risk Factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reid, Christopher R.; McFarland, Shane M.

    2015-01-01

    Injuries to the hands are common among astronauts who train for extravehicular activity (EVA). When the gloves are pressurized, they restrict movement and create pressure points during tasks, sometimes resulting in pain, muscle fatigue, abrasions, and occasionally more severe injuries such as onycholysis. A brief review of the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health's injury database reveals that 58% of total astronaut hand and arm injuries from NBL training between 1993 and 2010 occurred either to the fingernail, MCP, or fingertip. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential of using small sensors to measure force acting on the fingers and hand within pressurized gloves and other variables such as blood perfusion, skin temperature, humidity, fingernail strain, skin moisture, among others. Tasks were performed gloved and ungloved in a pressurizable glove box. The test demonstrated that fingernails saw greater transverse strain levels for tension or compression than for longitudinal strain, even during axial fingertip loading. Blood perfusion peaked and dropped as the finger deformed during finger presses, indicating an initial dispersion and decrease of blood perfusion levels. Force sensitive resistors to force plate comparisons showed similar force curve patterns as fingers were depressed, indicating suitable functionality for future testing. Strategies for proper placement and protection of these sensors for ideal data collection and longevity through the test session were developed and will be implemented going forward for future testing.

  15. Spatial assessment of potential ecological risk of heavy metals in soils from informal e-waste recycling in Ghana

    PubMed Central

    Greve, Klaus; Atiemo, Sampson Manukure

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly increasing annual global volume of e-waste, and of its inherently valuable fraction, has created an opportunity for individuals in Agbogbloshie, Accra, Ghana to make a living by using unconventional, uncontrolled, primitive and crude procedures to recycle and recover valuable metals from this waste. The current form of recycling procedures releases hazardous fractions, such as heavy metals, into the soil, posing a significant risk to the environment and human health. Using a handheld global positioning system, 132 soil samples based on 100 m grid intervals were collected and analysed for cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn). Using geostatistical techniques and sediment quality guidelines, this research seeks to assess the potential risk these heavy metals posed to the proposed Korle Ecological Restoration Zone by informal e-waste processing site in Agbogbloshie, Accra, Ghana. Analysis of heavy metals revealed concentrations exceeded the regulatory limits of both Dutch and Canadian soil quality and guidance values, and that the ecological risk posed by the heavy metals extended beyond the main burning and dismantling sites of the informal recyclers to the school, residential, recreational, clinic, farm and worship areas. The heavy metals Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn had normal distribution, spatial variability, and spatial autocorrelation. Further analysis revealed the decreasing order of toxicity, Hg>Cd>Pb> Cu>Zn>Cr, of contributing significantly to the potential ecological risk in the study area. PMID:29056034

  16. Spatial assessment of potential ecological risk of heavy metals in soils from informal e-waste recycling in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Kyere, Vincent Nartey; Greve, Klaus; Atiemo, Sampson Manukure; Ephraim, James

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly increasing annual global volume of e-waste, and of its inherently valuable fraction, has created an opportunity for individuals in Agbogbloshie, Accra, Ghana to make a living by using unconventional, uncontrolled, primitive and crude procedures to recycle and recover valuable metals from this waste. The current form of recycling procedures releases hazardous fractions, such as heavy metals, into the soil, posing a significant risk to the environment and human health. Using a handheld global positioning system, 132 soil samples based on 100 m grid intervals were collected and analysed for cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn). Using geostatistical techniques and sediment quality guidelines, this research seeks to assess the potential risk these heavy metals posed to the proposed Korle Ecological Restoration Zone by informal e-waste processing site in Agbogbloshie, Accra, Ghana. Analysis of heavy metals revealed concentrations exceeded the regulatory limits of both Dutch and Canadian soil quality and guidance values, and that the ecological risk posed by the heavy metals extended beyond the main burning and dismantling sites of the informal recyclers to the school, residential, recreational, clinic, farm and worship areas. The heavy metals Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn had normal distribution, spatial variability, and spatial autocorrelation. Further analysis revealed the decreasing order of toxicity, Hg>Cd>Pb> Cu>Zn>Cr, of contributing significantly to the potential ecological risk in the study area.

  17. Commercial squids: characterization, assessment of potential health benefits/risks and discrimination based on mineral, lipid and vitamin E concentrations.

    PubMed

    Torrinha, A; Gomes, F; Oliveira, M; Cruz, R; Mendes, E; Delerue-Matos, C; Casal, S; Morais, S

    2014-05-01

    The most consumed squid species worldwide were characterized regarding their concentrations of minerals, fatty acids, cholesterol and vitamin E. Interspecific comparisons were assessed among species and geographical origin. The health benefits derived from squid consumption were assessed based on daily minerals intake and on nutritional lipid quality indexes. Squids contribute significantly to daily intake of several macro (Na, K, Mg and P) and micronutrients (Cu, Zn and Ni). Despite their low fat concentration, they are rich in long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, particularly docosahexaenoic (DHA) and eicosapentanoic (EPA) acids, with highly favorable ω-3/ω-6 ratios (from 5.7 to 17.7), reducing the significance of their high cholesterol concentration (140-549 mg/100g ww). Assessment of potential health risks based on minerals intake, non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks indicated that Loligo gahi (from Atlantic Ocean), Loligo opalescens (from Pacific Ocean) and Loligo duvaucelii (from Indic Ocean) should be eaten with moderation due to the high concentrations of Cu and/or Cd. Canonical discriminant analysis identified the major fatty acids (C14:0, C18:0, C18:1, C18:3ω-3, C20:4ω-6 and C22:5ω-6), P, K, Cu and vitamin E as chemical discriminators for the selected species. These elements and compounds exhibited the potential to prove authenticity of the commercially relevant squid species. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT/COMMUNICATION TOOLS FOR REVITALIZATION OF POTENTIALLY CONTAMINATED SITES CD

    EPA Science Inventory

    Revitalization of potentially contaminated sites is often at a disadvantage compared to greenfield development. Apart from the lower cost of land in rural areas, redevelopment is very often still seen as a rather complex time- and cost-consuming process. Additionally, the potenti...

  19. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential risks and implications of engineered nanomaterials

    EPA Science Inventory

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology ...

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

  1. Development and evaluation of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey for assessing potential risk and protective factors for disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

    PubMed

    Shisslak, C M; Renger, R; Sharpe, T; Crago, M; McKnight, K M; Gray, N; Bryson, S; Estes, L S; Parnaby, O G; Killen, J; Taylor, C B

    1999-03-01

    To describe the development, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey-III (MRFS-III). The MRFS-III was designed to assess a number of potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls. Several versions of the MRFS were pilot tested before the MRFS-III was administered to a sample of 651 4th through 12th- grade girls to establish its psychometric properties. Most of the test-retest reliability coefficients of individual items on the MRFS-III were r > .40. Alpha coefficients for each risk and protective factor domain on the MRFS-III were also computed. The majority of these coefficients were r > .60. High convergent validity coefficients were obtained for specific items on the MRFS-III and measures of self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale) and weight concerns (Weight Concerns Scale). The test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the MRFS-III suggest that it is a useful new instrument to assess potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

  2. The occurrence and potential ecological risk assessment of bauxite mine-impacted water and sediments in Kuantan, Pahang,Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Rahman, Muhammad Syazwan Abd; Madzin, Zafira; Jusop, Shamshuddin; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Ariffin, Mariani; Z, Mohd Syakirin Md

    2017-01-01

    Recent bauxite mining activities in the vicinity of Kuantan, Pahang, have been associated with apparent environmental quality degradation and have raised environmental concerns among the public. This study was carried out to evaluate the overall ecological impacts on water and sediment quality from the bauxite mining activities. Water and sediment samples were collected at seven sampling locations within the bauxite mining areas between June and December 2015. The water samples were analyzed for water quality index (WQI) and distribution of major and trace element geochemistry. Sediment samples were evaluated based on geochemical indices, i.e., the enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I geo ). Potential ecological risk index was estimated to assess the degree to which sediments of the mine-impacted areas have been contaminated with heavy metals. The results showed that WQIs of some locations were classified as slightly polluted and contained metal contents exceeding the recommended guideline values. The EFs indicated minimal to moderate enrichment of metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Mn, As, Cd, Cr, Ni, Co, and Sr) in the sediments. I geo showed slightly to partially polluted sediments with respect to As at some locations. The potential ecological risk index (RI) showed that As posed the highest potential ecological risk with RI of 52.35-60.92 at two locations, while other locations indicated low risk. The findings from this study have demonstrated the impact of recent bauxite mining activities, which might be of importance to the local communities and relevant authorities to initiate immediate rehabilitation phase of the impacted area.

  3. Heavy metal levels in kiwifruit orchard soils and trees and its potential health risk assessment in Shaanxi, China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Jing; Yue, Tianli; Li, Xiaotong; Yuan, Yahong

    2016-07-01

    Concentrations of five heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb) in orchard soils and kiwifruit tissues (root, twig, leave, fruit) collected from Shaanxi province in China were measured, and the potential health risk for human through the fruit consumption was assessed. The orchard soils were in no pollution for Cr, Cu, Hg, and Pb, with their pollution index (PI) ≤1, while 10.0 % of the soil samples were under Cd contamination. Furthermore, kiwifruit tended to have a higher Cd and Hg accumulation (as indicated by Biological Accumulation Coefficient) from soil and have a higher Cu and Hg translocation (as reflected by Biological Transfer Coefficient) to aboveground parts. From the human health point of view, the DIM and HRI values for all the fruit samples were within the safe limits, while for Cr, Cu, Cd, Hg, and Pb, about 22.5, 12.5, 52.5, 15.0, and 47.5 % of the fruit samples exceeded the national maximum permissible levels, respectively. These results showed that, although there was no possible health risk to consumers due to intake of studied kiwifruit fruits under the current consumption rate, the regular survey of heavy metal pollution levels should be performed for the kiwifruit in Shaanxi province and a strict management program should be established to reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides used in fruit production in order to prevent the potential health risk.

  4. Role of mafic and ultramafic rocks in drinking water quality and its potential health risk assessment, Northern Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Begum, Shaheen; Shah, Mohammad Tahir; Muhammad, Said; Khan, Sardar

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the drinking water (groundwater and surface water) quality and potential risk assessment along mafic and ultramafic rocks in the Swat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provence, Pakistan. For this purpose, 82 groundwater and 33 surface water samples were collected and analyzed for physico-chemical parameters. Results showed that the majority of the physico-chemical parameters were found to be within the drinking water guidelines set by the World Health Organization. However, major cationic metals such as magnesium (Mg), and trace metals (TM) including iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr) and cobalt (Co) showed exceeded concentrations in 13%, 4%, 2%, 20%, 20% and 55% of water samples, respectively. Health risk assessment revealed that the non-carcinogenic effects or hazard quotient values through the oral ingestion pathway of water consumption for the TM (viz., Fe, Cr and Mn) were found to be greater than 1, could result in chronic risk to the exposed population. Results of statistical analyses revealed that mafic and ultramafic rocks are the main sources of metal contamination in drinking water, especially Ni and Cr. Both Ni and Cr have toxic health effects and therefore this study suggests that contaminated sites should be avoided or treated for drinking and domestic purposes.

  5. Nanomaterial Categorization for Assessing Risk Potential to Faciliate Regulatory Decision-Making

    EPA Science Inventory

    For nanotechnology to meet its potential as a game-changing and sustainable technology, it is important to ensure that the engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) and nano-enabled products that gain entry to the marketplace are safe and effective. Tools and methods are needed for regul...

  6. IMMUNOTOXICOGENOMICS: THE POTENTIAL OF GENOMICS TECHNOLOGY IN THE IMMUNOTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Evaluation of xenobiotic-induced changes in gene expression as a method to identify and classify potential toxicants is being pursued by industry and regulatory agencies worldwide. A workshop was held at the Research Triangle Park campus of the Environmental Protection Agency to...

  7. Potential roles of omics data in the use of adverse outcome pathways for environmental risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The current approach to assessing adverse effects of chemicals in the environment is largely based on a battery of in-vivo study methods and a limited number of accepted in-silico approaches. For most substances the pool of data from which to predict ecosystem effects is limited ...

  8. Smoking cessation: the potential role of risk assessment tools as motivational triggers.

    PubMed

    Young, Robert P; Hopkins, Raewyn J; Smith, Melinda; Hogarth, D Kyle

    2010-01-01

    Smoking is the most important and preventable cause of morbidity and premature mortality in developed and developing countries. To date, efforts to reduce the burden of smoking have focused on non-personalised strategies. Anxiety about ill health, especially lung cancer and emphysema, is the foremost concern for smokers and a major reason for quitting. Recent efforts in cessation management focus on behaviour change and pharmacotherapy. The '3 Ts' (tension, trigger, treatment) model of behaviour change proposes that at any one time a smoker experiences varying degrees of motivational tension, which in the presence of a trigger may initiate or enhance quitting. Smokers' optimistic bias (ie, denial of one's own vulnerability) sustains continued smoking, while increasing motivational tension (eg, illness) favours quitting. The 1 year quit rates achieved when smokers encounter a life threatening event, such as a heart attack or lung cancer, are as much as 50-60%. Utilising tests of lung function and/or genetic susceptibility personalises the risk and have been reported to achieve 1 year quit rates of 25%. This is comparable to quit rates achieved among healthy motivated smokers using smoking cessation drug therapy. In this paper we review existing evidence and propose that identifying those smokers at increased risk of an adverse smoking related disease may be a useful motivational tool, and enhance existing public health strategies directed at smoking cessation.

  9. Assessing regeneration potential

    Treesearch

    Ivan L. Sander

    1989-01-01

    When a regeneration harvest cut is planned for even-aged stands or it is time to make another cut in uneven-aged stands, the first thing to do is assess the regeneration potential. Regeneration potential is the likelihood of being successful in reproducing desired species. You need an assessment to be reasonably sure that regeneration and management objectives can be...

  10. Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations.

    PubMed

    Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano

    2016-04-14

    Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

  11. Changes of toxic metals during biological stabilization and their potential ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hou-cheng; Zeng, Zheng-zhong; Zhang, He-fei; Nan, Zhong-ren

    2015-01-01

    With various disadvantages of pollution control technologies for toxic metal-contaminated soil, we mixed contaminated soil with sludge for in situ composting to stabilize toxic metals, so plants are enriched to take up the toxic metals. When simulating the above, we added toxic metal solution into sewage sludge, and then composed it with steel slag to determine inhibition of the availability of toxic metals. When toxic metals were added into sludge, the potential ecological index and geoaccumulation index of Cd became high while Zn was low. Steel slag had an inhibited availability of Cd, and when the adjunction of steel slag was 7%, the availability of Cd was lowest. Steel slag promoted the availability of Zn, and when the adjunction of steel slag was 27%, the availability of Zn was highest. Results showed that during composting, with increasing steel slag, Cd stabilizing time was reached sooner but Zn stabilizing time was slower, and the availability of all metals became lower. In the end, composting inhibited the potential ecological index of Cd, but it promoted the potential ecological index of Zn. Steel slag promoted the stability of Cd and Zn as Fe/Mn oxide-bound and residual species. Therefore, composting sludge and steel slag could be used as an effective inhibitor of Zn and Cd pollution.

  12. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  13. Persistent organic pesticide residues in sediments of Vasai Creek near Mumbai: Assessment of sources and potential ecological risk.

    PubMed

    Singare, Pravin U

    2015-11-15

    Thirteen persistent organic pesticides were investigated in the sediments of Vasai Creek near Mumbai to evaluate their pollution levels and potential risks. It was observed that ΣOCPs level was in the range of 597-1538ng/g dw, with an average value of 1115.25ng/g dw. The level of ΣOPPs was in the range of 492-1034ng/g dw, with an average value of 798.15ng/g dw. The values o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratio gives an indication of use of technical DDT as the prime source of DDT, while the α/γ-BHC ratio indicate that BHCs in study area might have been received from fresh lindane. The results of an ecological risk assessment showed that sediment bound organic pesticides are of more ecotoxicological concern as they might create adverse ecological risk to the marine breeding habitats. These pesticides residues may get remobilize and released to overlying waters creating adverse effects on terrestrial and aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Bioaccumulation of heavy metals in oysters from the southern coast of Korea: assessment of potential risk to human health.

    PubMed

    Mok, Jong Soo; Yoo, Hyun Duk; Kim, Poong Ho; Yoon, Ho Dong; Park, Young Cheol; Lee, Tae Seek; Kwon, Ji Young; Son, Kwang Tae; Lee, Hee Jung; Ha, Kwang Soo; Shim, Kil Bo; Kim, Ji Hoe

    2015-06-01

    From 2009 to 2013, 80 oyster and 16 seawater samples were collected from the southern coast of Korea, including designated shellfish growing areas for export. The concentrations and bioaccumulation of heavy metals were determined, and a potential risk assessment was conducted to evaluate their hazards towards human consumption. The cadmium (Cd) concentration in oysters was the highest of three hazardous metals, including Cd, lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg), however, below the standards set by various countries. The metal bioaccumulation ratio in oysters was relatively high for zinc and Cd but low for Hg, Pb, arsenic, and chromium. The estimated dietary intakes of all heavy metals for oysters accounted for 0.02%-17.75% of provisional tolerable daily intake. The hazard index for all samples was far <1.0, which indicates that the oysters do not pose an appreciable hazard to humans for the metal pollutants of study.

  15. Microbial Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  16. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  17. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants.

    PubMed Central

    Möller, L; Schuetzle, D; Autrup, H

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out this research. PMID:7529703

  18. Risk assessment and prioritization

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2003-01-01

    The first step to take in order to prevent and minimize the dangers of disasters or attacks, is risk assessment, followed closely by prioritization. This article discusses key vulnerability and risk assessment that Volpe Center has conducted in suppo...

  19. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

  20. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  1. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

  2. The Development of a Plant Risk Evaluation (PRE) Tool for Assessing the Invasive Potential of Ornamental Plants

    PubMed Central

    Conser, Christiana; Seebacher, Lizbeth; Fujino, David W.; Reichard, Sarah; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2015-01-01

    Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) methods for evaluating invasiveness in plants have evolved rapidly in the last two decades. Many WRA tools exist, but none were specifically designed to screen ornamental plants prior to being released into the environment. To be accepted as a tool to evaluate ornamental plants for the nursery industry, it is critical that a WRA tool accurately predicts non-invasiveness without falsely categorizing them as invasive. We developed a new Plant Risk Evaluation (PRE) tool for ornamental plants. The 19 questions in the final PRE tool were narrowed down from 56 original questions from existing WRA tools. We evaluated the 56 WRA questions by screening 21 known invasive and 14 known non-invasive ornamental plants. After statistically comparing the predictability of each question and the frequency the question could be answered for both invasive and non-invasive species, we eliminated questions that provided no predictive power, were irrelevant in our current model, or could not be answered reliably at a high enough percentage. We also combined many similar questions. The final 19 remaining PRE questions were further tested for accuracy using 56 additional known invasive plants and 36 known non-invasive ornamental species. The resulting evaluation demonstrated that when “needs further evaluation” classifications were not included, the accuracy of the model was 100% for both predicting invasiveness and non-invasiveness. When “needs further evaluation” classifications were included as either false positive or false negative, the model was still 93% accurate in predicting invasiveness and 97% accurate in predicting non-invasiveness, with an overall accuracy of 95%. We conclude that the PRE tool should not only provide growers with a method to accurately screen their current stock and potential new introductions, but also increase the probability of the tool being accepted for use by the industry as the basis for a nursery certification program

  3. The development of a plant risk evaluation (PRE) tool for assessing the invasive potential of ornamental plants.

    PubMed

    Conser, Christiana; Seebacher, Lizbeth; Fujino, David W; Reichard, Sarah; DiTomaso, Joseph M

    2015-01-01

    Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) methods for evaluating invasiveness in plants have evolved rapidly in the last two decades. Many WRA tools exist, but none were specifically designed to screen ornamental plants prior to being released into the environment. To be accepted as a tool to evaluate ornamental plants for the nursery industry, it is critical that a WRA tool accurately predicts non-invasiveness without falsely categorizing them as invasive. We developed a new Plant Risk Evaluation (PRE) tool for ornamental plants. The 19 questions in the final PRE tool were narrowed down from 56 original questions from existing WRA tools. We evaluated the 56 WRA questions by screening 21 known invasive and 14 known non-invasive ornamental plants. After statistically comparing the predictability of each question and the frequency the question could be answered for both invasive and non-invasive species, we eliminated questions that provided no predictive power, were irrelevant in our current model, or could not be answered reliably at a high enough percentage. We also combined many similar questions. The final 19 remaining PRE questions were further tested for accuracy using 56 additional known invasive plants and 36 known non-invasive ornamental species. The resulting evaluation demonstrated that when "needs further evaluation" classifications were not included, the accuracy of the model was 100% for both predicting invasiveness and non-invasiveness. When "needs further evaluation" classifications were included as either false positive or false negative, the model was still 93% accurate in predicting invasiveness and 97% accurate in predicting non-invasiveness, with an overall accuracy of 95%. We conclude that the PRE tool should not only provide growers with a method to accurately screen their current stock and potential new introductions, but also increase the probability of the tool being accepted for use by the industry as the basis for a nursery certification program.

  4. A GIS technology based potential eco-risk assessment of metals in urban soils in Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Meie; Bai, Yanying; Chen, Weiping; Markert, Bernd; Peng, Chi; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2012-02-01

    Ecological risks of heavy metals in urban soils were evaluated using Beijing, China as an example. Cadmium, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Ni contents of 233 surface soils sampled by 1 min latitude × 1 min longitude grid were used to identify their spatial distribution patterns and potential emission sources. Throughout the city, longer the duration of urbanization greater was the accumulations of heavy metals especially, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. The soil Zn mainly came from the wears of vehicular tires. Point source emissions of heavy metals were few and far in the downwind south-east quadrant of Beijing. The calculated risk indices showed potential median eco-risks in the ancient central city. No potential high eco-risk due to soil-borne heavy metals was found. The potential medium eco-risk areas in Beijing would expand from the initial 24 to 110 km(2) if soil pH were to reduce by 0.5 units in anticipation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. [Residues and potential ecological risk assessment of metal in sediments from lower reaches and estuary of Pearl River].

    PubMed

    Xie, Wen-Ping; Wang, Shao-Bing; Zhu, Xin-Ping; Chen, Kun-Ci; Pan, De-Bo; Hong, Xiao-You; Yin, Yi

    2012-06-01

    In order to investigate the heavy metal concentrations and their potential ecological risks in surface sediments of lower reaches and estuary of Pearl River, 21 bottom sediment samples were collected from lower reaches and estuary of Pearl River. Total contents of Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd, Sb, Pb and Hg in these samples were measured by the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and the atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS) and using the index of geoaccumulation and the potential ecological risk index to evaluate the pollution degree of heavy metals in the sediments. Results indicated that the concentration of total Fe and total Mn were 41658.73 and 1104.73 mg x kg(-1) respectively and toxic trace metals, such as Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd, Sb, Pb and Hg were 86.62, 18.18, 54.10, 80.20, 543.60, 119.55, 4.28, 10.60, 20.26, 104.58 and 0.520 mg x kg(-1). The descending order of pollution degree of various metals is: Cd > As approximately Zn > Hg > Pb approximately Cu approximately Cr, while the single potential ecological risk followed the order: Cd > Hg > As > Cu > Pb > Zn > Cr. The pollution extent and potential ecological risk of Cd were the most serious among all heavy metals. The distribution pattern of Cd individual potential ecological risk indices is exactly the same as that of general potential ecological risk indices for all heavy metals. Clustering analysis indicates that the sampling stations may be classified into five groups which basically reflected the characteristics of the heavy metal contamination and sedimentation environments along the different river reaches in lower reaches and estuary of Pearl Rive. In general, the serious heavy metal pollution and the high potential ecological risk existed in three river reaches: Chengcun-Shawan, Chengcun-Shundegang and Waihai-Hutiaomen. The pollution degree and potential ecological risk are higher in related river reaches of Beijiang than that in other lower reaches and

  6. Potential bioavailability assessment, source apportionment and ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediment of Brisbane River estuary, Australia.

    PubMed

    Duodu, Godfred Odame; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Ayoko, Godwin A

    2017-04-15

    A weak acid extraction was used to mobilize the loosely bound metals in estuary sediment samples. More than 30% of Ag, As, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn Ni, Pb and Zn were leached from the sediment showing that these metals are significantly present in the bioavailable form. PCA/APCS identified three sources of the metals, namely: lithogenic accounting for 72%, shipping related contributing 15% and traffic related representing 13% of the total load. Application of pollution index (PI) and modified pollution index (MPI) revealed that the sediment range from unpolluted to heavily polluted while ecological risk index (RI) classifies the sediment as posing low ecological risk modified ecological risk index (MRI) suggests considerable to very high ecological risk. To provide holistic insights into the ecological risks posed by metals, enrichment factor, MPI and MRI are recommended for the assessment of sediment in complex environments such as estuaries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Potential human health risks from toxic metals via mangrove snail consumption and their ecological risk assessments in the habitat sediment from Peninsular Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Wan Hee; Yap, Chee Kong

    2015-09-01

    Samples of mangrove snails Nerita lineata and surface sediments were collected from nine geographical sampling sites in Peninsular Malaysia to determine the concentrations of eight metals. For the soft tissues, the ranges of metal concentrations (μg g(-1) dry weight (dw)) were 3.49-9.02 for As, 0.69-6.25 for Cd, 6.33-25.82 for Cu, 0.71-6.53 for Cr, 221-1285 for Fe, 1.03-50.47 for Pb, and 102.7-130.7 for Zn while Hg as 4.00-64.0 μg kg(-1) dw(-1). For sediments, the ranges were 21.81-59.49 for As, 1.11-2.00 for Cd, 5.59-28.71 for Cu, 18.93-62.91 for Cr, 12973-48916 for Fe, 25.36-172.57 for Pb, and 29.35-130.34 for Zn while for Hg as 2.66-312 μg kg(-1) dw(-1). To determine the ecological risks on the surface habitat sediments, sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), the geochemical indices, and potential ecological risk index (PERI) were used. Based on the SQGs, all the metals investigated were most unlikely to cause any adverse effects. Based on geoaccumulation index and enrichment factor, the sediments were also not polluted by the studied metals. The PERI values based on As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Hg, Pb and Zn in this study were found as 'low ecological risk'. In order to assess the potential health risks, the estimated daily intakes (EDI) of snails were found to be all lower than the RfD guidelines for all metals, except for Pb in some sites investigated. Furthermore, the calculated target hazard quotients (THQ) were found to be less than 1. However, the calculated total target hazard quotients (TTHQ) from all sites were found to be more than 1 for high level consumers except KPPuteh. Therefore, moderate amount of intake is advisable to avoid human health risks to the consumers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Strategic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  9. Development of a Standardized Approach for Assessing Potential Risks to Amphibians Exposed to Sediment and Hydric Soils

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-05-01

    following digestion using method 3005A. Copper concentrations were verified using atomic absorption spectroscopy/graphite furnace. Each chamber...1995. Ammonia Variation in Sediments: Spatial, Temporal and Method -Related Effects. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 14:1499-1506. Savage, W.K., F.W...Regulator Approved Methods and Protocols for Conducting Marine and Terrestrial Risk Assessments 1.III.01.k - Improved Field Analytical Sensors

  10. Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

  11. Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  12. Pollution potential leaching index as a tool to assess water leaching risk of arsenic in excavated urban soils.

    PubMed

    Li, Jining; Kosugi, Tomoya; Riya, Shohei; Hashimoto, Yohey; Hou, Hong; Terada, Akihiko; Hosomi, Masaaki

    2018-01-01

    Leaching of hazardous trace elements from excavated urban soils during construction of cities has received considerable attention in recent years in Japan. A new concept, the pollution potential leaching index (PPLI), was applied to assess the risk of arsenic (As) leaching from excavated soils. Sequential leaching tests (SLT) with two liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios (10 and 20Lkg -1 ) were conducted to determine the PPLI values, which represent the critical cumulative L/S ratios at which the average As concentrations in the cumulative leachates are reduced to critical values (10 or 5µgL -1 ). Two models (a logarithmic function model and an empirical two-site first-order leaching model) were compared to estimate the PPLI values. The fractionations of As before and after SLT were extracted according to a five-step sequential extraction procedure. Ten alkaline excavated soils were obtained from different construction projects in Japan. Although their total As contents were low (from 6.75 to 79.4mgkg -1 ), the As leaching was not negligible. Different L/S ratios at each step of the SLT had little influence on the cumulative As release or PPLI values. Experimentally determined PPLI values were in agreement with those from model estimations. A five-step SLT with an L/S of 10Lkg -1 at each step, combined with a logarithmic function fitting was suggested for the easy estimation of PPLI. Results of the sequential extraction procedure showed that large portions of more labile As fractions (non-specifically and specifically sorbed fractions) were removed during long-term leaching and so were small, but non-negligible, portions of strongly bound As fractions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

  14. Assessing potential health risks to fish and humans using mercury concentrations in inland fish from across western Canada and the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lepak, Jesse M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Tate, Michael T.; Lutz, Michelle A.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Willacker, James J.; Jackson, Allyson K.; Evers, David C.; Wiener, James G.; Pritz, Colleen Flanagan; Davis, Jay

    2016-01-01

    Fish represent high quality protein and nutrient sources, but Hg contamination is ubiquitous in aquatic ecosystems and can pose health risks to fish and their consumers. Potential health risks posed to fish and humans by Hg contamination in fish were assessed in western Canada and the United States. A large compilation of inland fish Hg concentrations was evaluated in terms of potential health risk to the fish themselves, health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish, and to humans that consume Hg contaminated fish. The probability that a fish collected from a given location would exceed a Hg concentration benchmark relevant to a health risk was calculated. These exceedance probabilities and their associated uncertainties were characterized for fish of multiple size classes at multiple health-relevant benchmarks. The approach was novel and allowed for the assessment of the potential for deleterious health effects in fish and humans associated with Hg contamination in fish across this broad study area. Exceedance probabilities were relatively common at low Hg concentration benchmarks, particularly for fish in larger size classes. Specifically, median exceedances for the largest size classes of fish evaluated at the lowest Hg concentration benchmarks were 0.73 (potential health risks to fish themselves), 0.90 (potential health risk to predatory fish that consume Hg contaminated fish), and 0.97 (potential for restricted fish consumption by humans), but diminished to essentially zero at the highest benchmarks and smallest fish size classes. Exceedances of benchmarks are likely to have deleterious health effects on fish and limit recommended amounts of fish humans consume in western Canada and the United States. Results presented here are not intended to subvert or replace local fish Hg data or consumption advice, but provide a basis for identifying areas of potential health risk and developing more focused future research and monitoring efforts.

  15. Health risk assessment of potentially harmful elements and dietary minerals from vegetables irrigated with untreated wastewater, Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Zia, Munir H; Watts, Michael J; Niaz, Abid; Middleton, Daniel R S; Kim, Alexander W

    2017-08-01

    In the developing world, vegetables are commonly grown in suburban areas irrigated with untreated wastewater containing potentially harmful elements (PHEs). In Pakistan, there is no published work on the bioaccessibility aspect of PHEs and dietary minerals (DMs) in sewage-irrigated soil or the vegetables grown on such soils in Pakistan. Several industrial districts of Pakistan were selected for assessment of the risk associated with the ingestion of vegetables grown over sewage-irrigated soils. Both the total and bioaccessible fraction of PHEs (Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb) and DMs (Fe, Cu, Mn, Zn, Ca, Mg, and I) in soils and vegetable samples were measured. The concentrations of these PHEs and DMs in sewage-irrigated and control soils were below published upper threshold limits. However, compared to control soils, sewage irrigation over the years decreased soil pH (7.7 vs 8.1) and enhanced dissolved organic carbon (1.8 vs 0.8 %), which could enhance the phyto-availability of PHEs and DMs to crops. Of the PHEs and DMs, the highest transfer factor (soil to plant) was noted for Cd and Ca, respectively. Concentrations of PHEs in most of the sewage-irrigated vegetables were below the published upper threshold limits, except for Cd in the fruiting portion of eggplant and bell pepper (0.06-0.08 mg/kg Cd, dry weight) at three locations in Gujarat and Kasur districts. The bioaccessible fraction of PHEs can reduce the context of dietary intake measurements compared to total concentrations, but differences between both measurements were not significant for Cd. Since the soils of the sampled districts are not overly contaminated compared to control sites, vegetables grown over sewage-irrigated soils would provide an opportunity to harvest mineral-rich vegetables potentially providing consumers 62, 60, 12, 104, and 63 % higher dietary intake of Cu, Mn, Zn, Ca, and Mg, respectively. Based on Fe and vanadium correlations in vegetables, it is inferred that a significant proportion

  16. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  17. Operational risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  18. Assessment of potential cardiovascular risks of methylphenidate in comparison with sibutramine: do we need a SCOUT (trial)?

    PubMed

    Antel, Jochen; Albayrak, Özgür; Heusch, Gerd; Banaschewski, Tobias; Hebebrand, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    With the recent approval of methylphenidate (MPH) for treating attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults, the number of patients exposed will increase tremendously. The ongoing debate on the cardiovascular safety of MPH has triggered two large retrospective cohort studies in children and adolescents as well as in young to middle-aged adults. These studies looked into serious cardiovascular events (sudden cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction and stroke) as primary endpoints and concluded that MPH was safe after a mean duration of 2.1 years of follow-up in children and adolescents and mean duration of 0.33 years of current use in adults. The results are encouraging with respect to the short- and medium-term use of MPH. Without the inherent limitations of retrospective cohort studies, a prospective randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial in individuals stratified for cardiovascular risk factors would allow for an optimized risk assessment. With many millions of patients treated per year and drawing parallels to the lately discovered risks of sibutramine, another sympathomimetic with an overlapping mode of action and similar side effects on heart rate and blood pressure, we hypothesize that such a trial might be a dedicated risk mitigation strategy for public health. A critical assessment of cardiovascular side effects of MPH appears particularly warranted, because ADHD is associated with obesity, smoking and poor health in general. We summarize recent findings with the focus on cardiovascular risks of MPH in humans; we additionally analyze the limited number of rodent studies that have addressed cardiovascular risks of MPH.

  19. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Treesearch

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  20. Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aidala, Jim

    1985-01-01

    Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  2. Characterization and assessment of potential environmental risk of tailings stored in seven impoundments in the Aries river basin, Western Romania

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The objective of this study was to examine the potential environmental risk of tailings resulted after precious and base metal ores processing, stored in seven impoundments located in the Aries river basin, Romania. The tailings were characterized by mineralogical and elemental composition, contamination indices, acid rock drainage generation potential and water leachability of hazardous/priority hazardous metals and ions. Multivariate statistical methods were used for data interpretation. Results Tailings were found to be highly contaminated with several hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cu, Cd, Pb), and pose potential contamination risk for soil, sediments, surface and groundwater. Two out of the seven studied impoundments does not satisfy the criteria required for inert wastes, shows acid rock drainage potential and thus can contaminate the surface and groundwater. Three impoundments were found to be highly contaminated with As, Pb and Cd, two with As and other two with Cu. The tailings impoundments were grouped based on the enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, contamination factor and contamination degree of 7 hazardous/priority hazardous metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) considered typical for the studied tailings. Principal component analysis showed that 47% of the elemental variability was attributable to alkaline silicate rocks, 31% to acidic S-containing minerals, 12% to carbonate minerals and 5% to biogenic elements. Leachability of metals and ions was ascribed in proportion of 61% to silicates, 11% to acidic minerals and 6% to the organic matter. A variability of 18% was attributed to leachability of biogenic elements (Na, K, Cl-, NO3-) with no potential environmental risk. Pattern recognition by agglomerative hierarchical clustering emphasized the grouping of impoundments in agreement with their contamination degree and acid rock drainage generation potential. Conclusions Tailings stored in the studied impoundments were found to

  3. Integrating chemical, toxicological and clinical research to assess the potential of reducing health risks associated with cigarette smoking through reducing toxicant emissions.

    PubMed

    McAdam, Kevin; Murphy, James; Eldridge, Alison; Meredith, Clive; Proctor, Christopher

    2018-06-01

    The concept of a risk continuum for tobacco and nicotine products has been proposed, which differentiates products according to their propensity to reduce toxicant exposure and risk. Cigarettes are deemed the most risky and medicinal nicotine the least. We assessed whether a Reduced-Toxicant Prototype (RTP) cigarette could sufficiently reduce exposure to toxicants versus conventional cigarettes to be considered a distinct category in the risk continuum. We present findings from both pre-clinical and clinical studies in order to examine the potential for reduced smoke toxicant emissions to lower health risks associated with cigarette smoking. We conclude that current toxicant reducing technologies are unable to reduce toxicant emissions sufficiently to manifest beneficial disease-relevant changes in smokers. These findings point to a minimum toxicant exposure standard that future potentially reduced risk products would need to meet to be considered for full biological assessment. The RTP met WHO TobReg proposed limits on cigarette toxicant emissions, however the absence of beneficial disease relevant changes in smokers after six months reduced toxicant cigarette use, does not provide evidence that these regulatory proposals will positively impact risks of smoking related diseases. Greater toxicant reductions, such as those that can be achieved in next generation products e.g. tobacco heating products and electronic cigarettes are likely to be necessary to clearly reduce risks compared with conventional cigarettes. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Landslide risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  5. Public Risk Assessment Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  6. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  7. FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

  8. Schedule Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Greg

    2003-01-01

    Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

  9. The Assessment and Potential Implications of the Myocardial Performance Index Post Exercise in an at Risk Population.

    PubMed

    Ruisi, Michael; Levine, Michael; Finkielstein, Dennis

    2013-12-01

    The myocardial performance index (MPI) first described by Chuwa Tei in 1995 is a relatively new echocardiographic variable used for assessment of overall cardiac function. Previous studies have demonstrated the MPI to be a sum representation of both left ventricular systolic and diastolic function with prognostic value in patients with coronary artery disease as well as symptomatic heart failure. Ninety patients with either established coronary artery disease (CAD) or CAD risk factors underwent routine treadmill exercise stress testing with two-dimensional Doppler echocardiography using the standard Bruce protocol. Both resting and stress MPI values were measured for all 90 of the patients. Using a normal MPI cut off of ≤ 0.47, the prevalence of an abnormal resting MPI in our 90 subjects was 72/90 or 80% and the prevalence of an abnormal stress MPI in our 90 subjects was 48/90 or 53.33%. The average MPI observed in the resting portion of the stress test for the cohort was: 0.636 with a standard deviation of 0.182. The average MPI in the stress portion of the stress test for the cohort was 0.530 with a standard deviation of 0.250. The P value with the use of a one-tailed dependent T test was calculated to be < 0.05. We postulate that these findings reflect that the MPI (Tei) index assessed during exercise may be a sensitive indicator of occult coronary disease in an at risk group independent of wall motion assessment.

  10. Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

    PubMed

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2013-04-01

    Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

  11. School Suicide Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brock, Stephen E.; Louvar Reeves, Melissa A.

    2018-01-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death among youth ages 10 years and older. Further, recent federal surveillance data suggest the rates of suicidal ideation and behaviors to be increasing. With these facts in mind, in this paper, we examine the school psychologist's role in suicide risk assessment; which assesses the degree to which students, who…

  12. Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

    2003-08-01

    The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

  13. The occurrence and distribution of antibiotics in Lake Chaohu, China: seasonal variation, potential source and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Tang, Jun; Shi, Taozhong; Wu, Xiangwei; Cao, Haiqun; Li, Xuede; Hua, Rimao; Tang, Feng; Yue, Yongde

    2015-03-01

    The distribution and seasonal variation of fifteen antibiotics belonging to three classes (sulfonamides, fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines) were investigated in Lake Chaohu, China. The concentrations of the selected antibiotics in the surface water, eight major inflowing rivers and sewage treatment plant (STP) samples were analyzed by UPLC-MS/MS. The results indicated that sulfamethoxazole and ofloxacin were the predominant antibiotics, with maximum concentrations of 95.6 and 383.4ngL(-1), respectively, in the river samples. In Lake Chaohu, the western inflowing rivers (the Nanfei and Shiwuli Rivers) were the primary import routes for the antibiotics, and the domestic effluent from four STPs were considered the primary source of the antibiotics. The level of antibiotics in Lake Chaohu clearly varied with seasonal changes, and the highest detectable frequencies and mean concentrations were found during the winter. The quality of water downstream of Lake Chaohu was influenced by the lake, and the results of risk assessment of the antibiotics on aquatic organisms suggested that sulfamethoxazole, ofloxacin, ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin in the surface water of Lake Chaohu and inflowing rivers might pose a high risk to algae and plants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing the Biological Safety Profession's Evaluation and Control of Risks Associated with the Field Collection of Potentially Infectious Specimens.

    PubMed

    Patlovich, Scott J; Emery, Robert J; Whitehead, Lawrence W; Brown, Eric L; Flores, Rene

    2015-03-01

    Because the origins of the biological safety profession are rooted in the control and prevention of laboratory-associated infections, the vocation focuses primarily on the safe handling of specimens within the laboratory. But in many cases, the specimens and samples handled in the lab are originally collected in the field where a broader set of possible exposure considerations may be present, each with varying degrees of controllability. The failure to adequately control the risks associated with collecting biological specimens in the field may result in illness or injury, and could have a direct impact on laboratory safety, if infectious specimens were packaged or transported inappropriately, for example. This study developed a web-based survey distributed to practicing biological safety professionals to determine the prevalence of and extent to which biological safety programs consider and evaluate field collection activities. In cases where such issues were considered, the data collected characterize the types of controls and methods of oversight at the institutional level that are employed. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the survey respondents indicated that research involving the field collection of biological specimens is conducted at their institutions. A majority (79%) of these field collection activities occur at academic institutions. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of respondents indicated that their safety committees do not consider issues related to biological specimens collected in the field, and only 25% with an oversight committee charged to review field collection protocols have generated a field research-specific risk assessment form to facilitate the assembly of pertinent information for a project risk assessment review. The results also indicated that most biosafety professionals (73% overall; 71% from institutions conducting field collection activities) have not been formally trained on the topic, but many (64% overall; 87% from institutions conducting

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 2: Integrated loss of vehicle model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    The application of the probabilistic risk assessment methodology to a Space Shuttle environment, particularly to the potential of losing the Shuttle during nominal operation is addressed. The different related concerns are identified and combined to determine overall program risks. A fault tree model is used to allocate system probabilities to the subsystem level. The loss of the vehicle due to failure to contain energetic gas and debris, to maintain proper propulsion and configuration is analyzed, along with the loss due to Orbiter, external tank failure, and landing failure or error.

  16. Nanominerals and potentially hazardous elements from coal cleaning rejects of abandoned mines: Environmental impact and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Fdez-Ortiz de Vallejuelo, Silvia; Gredilla, Ainara; da Boit, Kátia; Teixeira, Elba C; Sampaio, Carlos H; Madariaga, Juan Manuel; Silva, Luis F O

    2017-02-01

    Soils around coal mining are important reservoir of hazardous elements (HEs), nanominerals, and ultrafine compounds. This research reports and discusses the soil concentrations of HEs (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in coal residues of abandoned mines. To assess differences regarding environmental impact and risk assessment between coal abandoned mines from the Santa Catarina state, eighteen coal cleaning rejects with different mineralogical and chemical composition, from eight abandoned mines were collected. Nanominerals and ultra-fine minerals from mining-contaminated areas were analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), and high-resolution transmission electron microscope (HR-TEM), providing new information on the mineralogy and nano-mineralogy of these coal residues. The total contents of 57 elements (HEs, alkali metals, and rare earth elements) were analyzed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). The calculation of NWACs (Normalized Average Weighted Concentration), together with the chemometric analysis by Principal component analysis (PCA) confirmed the variability of the samples regarding their city and their mine of origin. Moreover, the results confirmed the existence of hotspots in mines near urban areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Potentially toxic elements in soil of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Tribal areas, Pakistan: evaluation for human and ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Saddique, Umar; Muhammad, Said; Tariq, Mohsin; Zhang, Hua; Arif, Mohammad; Jadoon, Ishtiaq A K; Khattak, Nimat Ullah

    2018-03-22

    Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) contaminations in the soil ecosystem are considered as extremely hazardous due to toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulative nature. Therefore, this study was aimed to summarize the results of published PTEs in soil of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas, Pakistan. Results were evaluated for the pollution quantification factors, including contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), ecological risk index (ERI) and human health risk assessment. The highest CF (797) and PLI (7.35) values were observed for Fe and ERI (857) values for Cd. Soil PTEs concentrations were used to calculate the human exposure for the risk assessment, including chronic or non-carcinogenic risks such as the hazard quotient (HQ) and carcinogenic or cancer risk (CR). The values of HQ were > 1 for the Cd, Co and Cr in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas. Tribal areas showed higher values of ERI, HQ, and CR as compared to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that were attributed to the mining activities, weathering and erosion of mafic and ultramafic bedrocks hosting ophiolites. This study strongly recommends that best control measures need to be taken for soil PTEs with the intent to alleviate any continuing potential threat to the human health, property and environment, which otherwise could enter ecosystem and ultimately the living beings. Further studies are recommended to combat the soil PTEs concentrations and toxicity in the Tribal areas for a best picture of understanding the element effects on human, and environment can be achieved that will lead to a sustainable ecological harmony.

  18. Bioavailability of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and their Potential Application in Eco-risk Assessment and Source Apportionment in Urban River Sediment

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Xunan; Yu, Liuqian; Chen, Zefang; Xu, Meiying

    2016-01-01

    Traditional risk assessment and source apportionment of sediments based on bulk polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can introduce biases due to unknown aging effects in various sediments. We used a mild solvent (hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin) to extract the bioavailable fraction of PAHs (a-PAHs) from sediment samples collected in Pearl River, southern China. We investigated the potential application of this technique for ecological risk assessments and source apportionment. We found that the distribution of PAHs was associated with human activities and that the a-PAHs accounted for a wide range (4.7%–21.2%) of total-PAHs (t-PAHs), and high risk sites were associated with lower t-PAHs but higher a-PAHs. The correlation between a-PAHs and the sediment toxicity assessed using tubificid worms (r = −0.654, P = 0.021) was greater than that from t-PAH-based risk assessment (r = −0.230, P = 0.472). Moreover, the insignificant correlation between a-PAH content and mPEC-Q of low molecular weight PAHs implied the potiential bias of t-PAH-based risk assessment. The source apportionment from mild extracted fractions was consistent across different indicators and was in accordance with typical pollution sources. Our results suggested that mild extraction-based approaches reduce the potential error from aging effects because the mild extracted PAHs provide a more direct indicator of bioavailability and fresher fractions in sediments. PMID:26976450

  19. Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

  20. A comprehensive assessment of arsenic in commonly consumed foodstuffs to evaluate the potential health risk in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Md Kawser; Shaheen, Nazma; Islam, Md Saiful; Habibullah-Al-Mamun, Md; Islam, Saiful; Islam, Md Monirul; Kundu, Goutam Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Lalita

    2016-02-15

    Arsenic (As), particularly of its inorganic form (iAs) is highly toxic, and its presence in food composites is a matter of concern for the public health safety, specifically in Bangladesh which is regarded as the most arsenic affected country throughout the world. This study was carried out to investigate the levels of As in the composite samples of commonly consumed foodstuffs collected from 30 different agro-ecological zones for the first time in Bangladesh. Most of the individual food composites contain a considerable amount of As which was, as a whole, in the range of 0.077-1.5mg/kg fw which was lower than those reported from Spain, EU, France, Korea, whereas higher than those of Mexico, Chile, Japan, Cambodia, Hong Kong, Serbia, respectively. Cereals, vegetables, milk, and fish contribute about 90% to the daily intake of inorganic arsenic. Human health risk of dietary iAs was assessed separately for both the rural and urban adults. The estimated daily dietary intakes (EDI) of iAs for the exposed rural (3.5) and urban residents (3.2 μg/kg-BW/day) clearly exceeded the previous provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI) value of 2.1 μg/kg-BW/day, recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). From the health point of view, this study concluded that both the rural and urban residents of Bangladesh are exposed to carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks who consume As-contaminated water and foodstuffs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  2. The acquisition of dangerous biological materials: Technical facts sheets to assist risk assessments of 46 potential BW agents

    SciTech Connect

    Aceto, Donato Gonzalo; Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M.; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.

    Numerous terrorist organizations have openly expressed interest in producing and deploying biological weapons. However, a limiting factor for many terrorists has been the acquisition of dangerous biological agents, as evidenced by the very few successful instances of biological weapons use compared to the number of documented hoaxes. Biological agents vary greatly in their ability to cause loss of life and economic damage. Some agents, if released properly, can kill many people and cause an extensive number of secondary infections; other agents will sicken only a small number of people for a short period of time. Consequently, several biological agents canmore » potentially be used to perpetrate a bioterrorism attack but few are likely capable of causing a high consequence event. It is crucial, from a US national security perspective, to more deeply understand the likelihood that terrorist organizations can acquire the range of these agents. Few studies have attempted to comprehensively compile the technical information directly relevant to the acquisition of dangerous bacteria, viruses and toxins. In this report, technical fact sheets were assembled for 46 potentially dangerous biological agents. Much of the information was taken from various research sources which could ultimately and significantly expedite and improve bioterrorism threat assessments. By systematically examining a number of specific agent characteristics included in these fact sheets, it may be possible to detect, target, and implement measures to thwart future terrorist acquisition attempts. In addition, the information in these fact sheets may be used as a tool to help laboratories gain a rudimentary understanding of how attractive a method laboratory theft is relative to other potential acquisition modes.« less

  3. Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

  4. Formaldehyde risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

  5. Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…

  6. Assessment of Natural Radioactivity Levels and Potential Radiological Risks of Common Building Materials Used in Bangladeshi Dwellings.

    PubMed

    Asaduzzaman, Khandoker; Mannan, Farhana; Khandaker, Mayeen Uddin; Farook, Mohideen Salihu; Elkezza, Aeman; Amin, Yusoff Bin Mohd; Sharma, Sailesh; Abu Kassim, Hasan Bin

    2015-01-01

    The concentrations of primordial radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) in commonly used building materials (brick, cement and sand), the raw materials of cement and the by-products of coal-fired power plants (fly ash) collected from various manufacturers and suppliers in Bangladesh were determined via gamma-ray spectrometry using an HPGe detector. The results showed that the mean concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in all studied samples slightly exceeded the typical world average values of 50 Bq kg(-1), 50 Bq kg(-1) and 500 Bq kg(-1), respectively. The activity concentrations (especially 226Ra) of fly-ash-containing cement in this study were found to be higher than those of fly-ash-free cement. To evaluate the potential radiological risk to individuals associated with these building materials, various radiological hazard indicators were calculated. The radium equivalent activity values for all samples were found to be lower than the recommended limit for building materials of 370 Bq kg(-1), with the exception of the fly ash. For most samples, the values of the alpha index and the radiological hazard (external and internal) indices were found to be within the safe limit of 1. The mean indoor absorbed dose rate was observed to be higher than the population-weighted world average of 84 nGy h(-1), and the corresponding annual effective dose for most samples fell below the recommended upper dose limit of 1 mSv y(-1). For all investigated materials, the values of the gamma index were found to be greater than 0.5 but less than 1, indicating that the gamma dose contribution from the studied building materials exceeds the exemption dose criterion of 0.3 mSv y(-1) but complies with the upper dose principle of 1 mSv y(-1).

  7. Assessment of Natural Radioactivity Levels and Potential Radiological Risks of Common Building Materials Used in Bangladeshi Dwellings

    PubMed Central

    Asaduzzaman, Khandoker; Mannan, Farhana; Khandaker, Mayeen Uddin; Farook, Mohideen Salihu; Elkezza, Aeman; Amin, Yusoff Bin Mohd; Sharma, Sailesh; Abu Kassim, Hasan Bin

    2015-01-01

    The concentrations of primordial radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) in commonly used building materials (brick, cement and sand), the raw materials of cement and the by-products of coal-fired power plants (fly ash) collected from various manufacturers and suppliers in Bangladesh were determined via gamma-ray spectrometry using an HPGe detector. The results showed that the mean concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in all studied samples slightly exceeded the typical world average values of 50 Bq kg−1, 50 Bq kg−1 and 500 Bq kg−1, respectively. The activity concentrations (especially 226Ra) of fly-ash-containing cement in this study were found to be higher than those of fly-ash-free cement. To evaluate the potential radiological risk to individuals associated with these building materials, various radiological hazard indicators were calculated. The radium equivalent activity values for all samples were found to be lower than the recommended limit for building materials of 370 Bq kg-1, with the exception of the fly ash. For most samples, the values of the alpha index and the radiological hazard (external and internal) indices were found to be within the safe limit of 1. The mean indoor absorbed dose rate was observed to be higher than the population-weighted world average of 84 nGy h–1, and the corresponding annual effective dose for most samples fell below the recommended upper dose limit of 1 mSv y–1. For all investigated materials, the values of the gamma index were found to be greater than 0.5 but less than 1, indicating that the gamma dose contribution from the studied building materials exceeds the exemption dose criterion of 0.3 mSv y-1 but complies with the upper dose principle of 1 mSv y−1. PMID:26473957

  8. [Pollution distribution and potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments from the different eastern dredging regions of Lake Taihu].

    PubMed

    Mao, Zhi-Gang; Gu, Xiao-Hong; Lu, Xiao-Ming; Zeng, Qing-Fei; Gu, Xian-Kun; Li, Xu-Guang

    2014-01-01

    In order to investigate the distribution characteristics of nutrients and heavy metals in sediments from different eastern dredging regions of Lake Taihu, the surface and core sediment samples at 5 sites (in East Taihu Lake and Xukou Bay) were collected in 2012. Contents of nutrients (TOC, TN and TP) and heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the sediments were measured and the pollution degrees of heavy metals were evaluated with the potential ecological risk method. The results showed that the heavy metal contents in Xukou Bay were generally higher than those in East Taihu Lake, whereas the nutrients contents showed the reverse trend. There were significant differences between the phytoplankton-dominated and culture lake regions. The concentrations of both nutrients and heavy metals decreased with increasing profile depth. Moreover, the contents of nutrients and heavy metals in the sediments of all dredged areas were lower than those in the un-dredged areas, suggesting that dredging may be a useful approach for decreasing nutrients and heavy metals loading in sediments, but its effectiveness decreased with time. Significant positive correlations were found among different heavy metals and nutrients, indicating that they were from the same pollution source. The Hakanson potential ecological risk index was applied for assessing the status of sediment heavy metal enrichment and the result indicated that sediment dredging could reduce the extent of potential ecological risk. The risk index in different sites followed the order: X1 > D1 > D3 > X2 > D2, while the risk index in site X1 of Xukou Bay was higher than that in site D1 of East Taihu Lake. And the comprehensive ecological risk grades in sites X1 and D1 were in the moderate range, while the sites D2, D3 and X2 were low.

  9. Assessing Potential Propulsion Breakthroughs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millis, Marc G.

    2005-01-01

    The term, propulsion breakthrough, refers to concepts like propellantless space drives and faster-than-light travel, the kind of breakthroughs that would make interstellar exploration practical. Although no such breakthroughs appear imminent, a variety of investigations into these goals have begun. From 1996 to 2002, NASA supported the Breakthrough Propulsion Physics Project to examine physics in the context of breakthrough spaceflight. Three facets of these assessments are now reported: (1) predicting benefits, (2) selecting research, and (3) recent technical progress. Predicting benefits is challenging since the breakthroughs are still only notional concepts, but kinetic energy can serve as a basis for comparison. In terms of kinetic energy, a hypothetical space drive could require many orders of magnitude less energy than a rocket for journeys to our nearest neighboring star. Assessing research options is challenging when the goals are beyond known physics and when the implications of success are profound. To mitigate the challenges, a selection process is described where: (a) research tasks are constrained to only address the immediate unknowns, curious effects or critical issues, (b) reliability of assertions is more important than their implications, and (c) reviewers judge credibility rather than feasibility. The recent findings of a number of tasks, some selected using this process, are discussed. Of the 14 tasks included, six reached null conclusions, four remain unresolved, and four have opportunities for sequels. A dominant theme with the sequels is research about the properties of space, inertial frames, and the quantum vacuum.

  10. Assessing potential propulsion breakthroughs.

    PubMed

    Millis, Marc G

    2005-12-01

    The term, propulsion breakthrough, refers to concepts like propellantless space drives and faster-than-light travel, the kind of breakthroughs that would make interstellar exploration practical. Although no such breakthroughs appear imminent, a variety of investigations have begun. During 1996-2002 NASA supported the breakthrough propulsion physics project to examine physics in the context of breakthrough spaceflight. Three facets of these assessments are now reported: (1) predicting benefits, (2) selecting research, and (3) recent technical progress. Predicting benefits is challenging, since the breakthroughs are still only notional concepts, but energy can serve as a basis for comparison. A hypothetical space drive would require many orders of magnitude less energy than a rocket for journeys to our nearest neighboring star. Assessing research options is challenging when the goals are beyond known physics and when the implications of success are profound. To mitigate the challenges, a selection process is described where: (1) research tasks are constrained to only address the immediate unknowns, curious effects, or critical issues; (2) reliability of assertions is more important than their implications; and (3) reviewers judge credibility rather than feasibility. The recent findings of a number of tasks, some selected using this process, are discussed. Of the 14 tasks included, six reached null conclusions, four remain unresolved, and four have opportunities for sequels. A dominant theme with the sequels is research about the properties of space, inertial frames, and the quantum vacuum.

  11. Default values for assessment of potential dermal exposure of the hands to industrial chemicals in the scope of regulatory risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Marquart, Hans; Warren, Nicholas D; Laitinen, Juha; van Hemmen, Joop J

    2006-07-01

    Dermal exposure needs to be addressed in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals. The models used so far are based on very limited data. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a large number of new measurements on dermal exposure to industrial chemicals in various work situations, together with information on possible determinants of exposure. These data and information, together with some non-RISKOFDERM data were used to derive default values for potential dermal exposure of the hands for so-called 'TGD exposure scenarios'. TGD exposure scenarios have similar values for some very important determinant(s) of dermal exposure, such as amount of substance used. They form narrower bands within the so-called 'RISKOFDERM scenarios', which cluster exposure situations according to the same purpose of use of the products. The RISKOFDERM scenarios in turn are narrower bands within the so-called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units) that were defined in the RISKOFDERM project to cluster situations with similar exposure processes and exposure routes. Default values for both reasonable worst case situations and typical situations were derived, both for single datasets and, where possible, for combined datasets that fit the same TGD exposure scenario. The following reasonable worst case potential hand exposures were derived from combined datasets: (i) loading and filling of large containers (or mixers) with large amounts (many litres) of liquids: 11,500 mg per scenario (14 mg cm(-2) per scenario with surface of the hands assumed to be 820 cm(2)); (ii) careful mixing of small quantities (tens of grams in <1l): 4.1 mg per scenario (0.005 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iii) spreading of (viscous) liquids with a comb on a large surface area: 130 mg per scenario (0.16 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iv) brushing and rolling of (relatively viscous) liquid products on surfaces: 6500 mg per scenario (8 mg cm(-2) per scenario) and (v) spraying large amounts of liquids (paints, cleaning

  12. Potential application of ecological models in the European environmental risk assessment of chemicals. I. Review of protection goals in EU directives and regulations.

    PubMed

    Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; Galic, Nika; van den Brink, Paul J

    2010-07-01

    Several European directives and regulations address the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. We used the protection of freshwater ecosystems against plant protection products, biocidal products, human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, and other chemicals and priority substances under the Water Framework Directive as examples to explore the potential of ecological effect models for a refined risk assessment. Our analysis of the directives, regulations, and related guidance documents lead us to distinguish the following 5 areas for the application of ecological models in chemical risk assessment: 1) Extrapolation of organism-level effects to the population level: The protection goals are formulated in general terms, e.g., avoiding "unacceptable effects" or "adverse impact" on the environment or the "viability of exposed species." In contrast, most of the standard ecotoxicological tests provide data only on organism-level endpoints and are thus not directly linked to the protection goals which focus on populations and communities. 2) Extrapolation of effects between different exposure profiles: Especially for plant protection products, exposure profiles can be very variable and impossible to cover in toxicological tests. 3) Extrapolation of recovery processes: As a consequence of the often short-term exposures to plant protection products, the risk assessment is based on the community recovery principle. On the other hand, assessments under the other directives assume a more or less constant exposure and are based on the ecosystem threshold principle. 4) Analysis and prediction of indirect effects: Because effects on 1 or a few taxa might have consequences on other taxa that are not directly affected by the chemical, such indirect effects on communities have to be considered. 5) Prediction of bioaccumulation within food chains: All directives take the possibility of bioaccumulation, and thus secondary poisoning within the food chain, into account. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  13. Assessment of toxicity and potential risk of the anticoagulant rodenticide diphacinone using Eastern screech-owls (Megascops asio)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rattner, Barnett A.; Horak, Katherine E.; Lazarus, Rebecca S.; Eisenreich, Karen M.; Meteyer, Carol U.; Volker, Steven F.; Campton, Christopher M.; Eisemann, John D.; Johnston, John J.

    2012-01-01

    In the United States, new regulatory restrictions have been placed on the use of some second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides. This action may be offset by expanded use of first-generation compounds (e.g., diphacinone; DPN). Single-day acute oral exposure of adult Eastern screech-owls (Megascops asio) to DPN evoked overt signs of intoxication, coagulopathy, histopathological lesions (e.g., hemorrhage, hepatocellular vacuolation), and/ or lethality at doses as low as 130 mg/kg body weight, although there was no dose-response relation. However, this single-day exposure protocol does not mimic the multiple-day field exposures required to cause mortality in rodent pest species and non-target birds and mammals. In 7-day feeding trials, similar toxic effects were observed in owls fed diets containing 2.15, 9.55 or 22.6 ppm DPN, but at a small fraction (<5%) of the acute oral dose. In the dietary trial, the average lowest-observed-adverse-effect-level for prolonged clotting time was 1.68 mg DPN/kg owl/week (0.24 mg/kg owl/day; 0.049 mg/owl/day) and the lowest lethal dose was 5.75 mg DPN/kg owl/week (0.82 mg/kg owl/day). In this feeding trial, DPN concentration in liver ranged from 0.473 to 2.21 μg/g wet weight, and was directly related to the daily and cumulative dose consumed by each owl. A probabilistic risk assessment indicated that daily exposure to as little as 3-5 g of liver from DPN-poisoned rodents for 7 days could result in prolonged clotting time in the endangered Hawaiian shorteared owl (Asio flammeus sandwichensis) and Hawaiian hawk (Buteo solitarius), and daily exposure to greater quantities (9-13 g of liver) could result in low-level mortality. These findings can assist natural resource managers in weighing the costs and benefits of anticoagulant rodenticide use in pest control and eradication programs.

  14. Assessment of toxicity and potential risk of the anticoagulant rodenticide diphacinone using Eastern screech-owls (Megascops asio).

    PubMed

    Rattner, Barnett A; Horak, Katherine E; Lazarus, Rebecca S; Eisenreich, Karen M; Meteyer, Carol U; Volker, Steven F; Campton, Christopher M; Eisemann, John D; Johnston, John J

    2012-04-01

    In the United States, new regulatory restrictions have been placed on the use of some second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides. This action may be offset by expanded use of first-generation compounds (e.g., diphacinone; DPN). Single-day acute oral exposure of adult Eastern screech-owls (Megascops asio) to DPN evoked overt signs of intoxication, coagulopathy, histopathological lesions (e.g., hemorrhage, hepatocellular vacuolation), and/or lethality at doses as low as 130 mg/kg body weight, although there was no dose-response relation. However, this single-day exposure protocol does not mimic the multiple-day field exposures required to cause mortality in rodent pest species and non-target birds and mammals. In 7-day feeding trials, similar toxic effects were observed in owls fed diets containing 2.15, 9.55 or 22.6 ppm DPN, but at a small fraction (<5%) of the acute oral dose. In the dietary trial, the average lowest-observed-adverse-effect-level for prolonged clotting time was 1.68 mg DPN/kg owl/week (0.24 mg/kg owl/day; 0.049 mg/owl/day) and the lowest lethal dose was 5.75 mg DPN/kg owl/week (0.82 mg/kg owl/day). In this feeding trial, DPN concentration in liver ranged from 0.473 to 2.21 μg/g wet weight, and was directly related to the daily and cumulative dose consumed by each owl. A probabilistic risk assessment indicated that daily exposure to as little as 3-5 g of liver from DPN-poisoned rodents for 7 days could result in prolonged clotting time in the endangered Hawaiian short-eared owl (Asio flammeus sandwichensis) and Hawaiian hawk (Buteo solitarius), and daily exposure to greater quantities (9-13 g of liver) could result in low-level mortality. These findings can assist natural resource managers in weighing the costs and benefits of anticoagulant rodenticide use in pest control and eradication programs.

  15. A risk-based approach for assessing the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material as road sub-base filler material.

    PubMed

    Di Gianfilippo, Martina; Verginelli, Iason; Costa, Giulia; Spagnuolo, Riccardo; Gavasci, Renato; Lombardi, Francesco

    2018-01-01

    In this work we present an integrated risk-based approach that can be used to evaluate the recycling potential of an alkaline waste material such as incineration bottom ash (BA) as unbound material for road sub-base construction. This approach, which is aimed at assessing potential risks to the groundwater resource (in terms of drinking water quality) and human health associated to the leaching of contaminants from the BA, couples the results of leaching tests for the estimation of source concentrations with the fate and transport models usually adopted in risk assessment procedures. The effects of weathering and of the type of leaching test employed to evaluate eluate concentrations were assessed by carrying out different simulations using the results of laboratory leaching tests. Specifically, pH-dependence and column percolation leaching tests were performed on freshly collected and 1-year naturally weathered BA samples produced from a grate-fired incineration plant treating Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF). To evaluate a broad span of possible scenario conditions, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed running 5000 simulations, randomly varying the input parameters within the ranges expected in the field. In nearly all the simulated conditions, the concentrations of contaminants in the groundwater for the specific type of BA tested in this work were well below EU and WHO drinking water quality criteria. Nevertheless, some caution should be paid in the case of the establishment of acidic conditions in the field since in this case the concentration of some elements (i.e. Al, Pb and Zn) is expected to exceed threshold values. In terms of risks to human health, for the considered utilization scenario the probability of exceeding the acceptable reference dose for water ingestion was usually less than 1% (except for Cr and Pb for which the probability was lower than 3.5% and 7%, respectively). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) Pollution at a Rural Industrial Wasteland in an Abandoned Metallurgy Factory in North China

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jiajun

    2018-01-01

    The potential toxic elements (PTEs) pollution problems in many rural industrial wastelands have been observed to be conspicuous. Therefore, 40 top soil samples were collected from the wasteland of a typical rural metallurgy factory in Baoding, China. The total concentrations of six key PTEs were measured. The soil properties and speciation of the PTEs were also identified. Extremely high concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, and Zn were observed in the surface soils. Using the PTEs concentration in the top soils of the rural industrial wasteland, the following indices of pollution were calculated: the pollution load index (PLI), the geo-accumulation Index (Igeo), the risk assessment code (RAC), and the health risk assessment (HRA). The analysis of the PLI and Igeo indicated that site #1 was relatively clean, while sites #2 and #3 were heavily polluted. The results of the RAC showed that PTEs in top soils at sites #2 and #3 were significantly increased (p  <  0.05) for Cd and Zn. The HRA indicated that both As and Pb presented non-carcinogenic risks to children and adults at sites #2 and #3. Our findings can be a reference for risk prevention of industrially abandoned land in rural China. PMID:29316642

  17. Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) Pollution at a Rural Industrial Wasteland in an Abandoned Metallurgy Factory in North China.

    PubMed

    Sun, Zheng; Chen, Jiajun

    2018-01-06

    The potential toxic elements (PTEs) pollution problems in many rural industrial wastelands have been observed to be conspicuous. Therefore, 40 top soil samples were collected from the wasteland of a typical rural metallurgy factory in Baoding, China. The total concentrations of six key PTEs were measured. The soil properties and speciation of the PTEs were also identified. Extremely high concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, and Zn were observed in the surface soils. Using the PTEs concentration in the top soils of the rural industrial wasteland, the following indices of pollution were calculated: the pollution load index (PLI), the geo-accumulation Index (I geo ), the risk assessment code (RAC), and the health risk assessment (HRA). The analysis of the PLI and I geo indicated that site #1 was relatively clean, while sites #2 and #3 were heavily polluted. The results of the RAC showed that PTEs in top soils at sites #2 and #3 were significantly increased ( p <  0.05) for Cd and Zn. The HRA indicated that both As and Pb presented non-carcinogenic risks to children and adults at sites #2 and #3. Our findings can be a reference for risk prevention of industrially abandoned land in rural China.

  18. Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

  19. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  20. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  1. Source apportionment and health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in road dust from urban industrial areas of Ahvaz megacity, Iran.

    PubMed

    Najmeddin, Ali; Keshavarzi, Behnam; Moore, Farid; Lahijanzadeh, Ahmadreza

    2017-10-28

    This study investigates the occurrence and spatial distribution of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) (Hg, Cd, Cu, Mo, Pb, Zn, Ni, Co, Cr, Al, Fe, Mn, V and Sb) in 67 road dust samples collected from urban industrial areas in Ahvaz megacity, southwest of Iran. Geochemical methods, multivariate statistics, geostatistics and health risk assessment model were adopted to study the spatial pollution pattern and to identify the priority pollutants, regions of concern and sources of the studied PTEs. Also, receptor positive matrix factorization model was employed to assess pollution sources. Compared to the local background, the median enrichment factor values revealed the following order: Sb > Pb > Hg > Zn > Cu > V > Fe > Mo > Cd > Mn > Cr ≈ Co ≈ Al ≈ Ni. Statistical results show that a significant difference exists between concentrations of Mo, Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe, Sb, V and Hg in different regions (univariate analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test p < 0.05), indicating the existence of highly contaminated spots. Integrated source identification coupled with positive matrix factorization model revealed that traffic-related emissions (43.5%) and steel industries (26.4%) were first two sources of PTEs in road dust, followed by natural sources (22.6%) and pipe and oil processing companies (7.5%). The arithmetic mean of pollution load index (PLI) values for high traffic sector (1.92) is greater than industrial (1.80) and residential areas (1.25). Also, the results show that ecological risk values for Hg and Pb in 41.8 and 9% of total dust samples are higher than 80, indicating their considerable or higher potential ecological risk. The health risk assessment model showed that ingestion of dust particles contributed more than 83% of the overall non-carcinogenic risk. For both residential and industrial scenarios, Hg and Pb had the highest risk values, whereas Mo has the lowest value.

  2. Assessment of trace elements in terminal tap water of Hunan Province, South China, and the potential health risks.

    PubMed

    Li, Mansha; Du, Yong; Chen, Lv; Liu, Lulu; Duan, Yanying

    2018-05-02

    A total of 116 terminal tap water (TTW) samples from Xiangjiang, Zijiang, Yuanjiang, and Lishui river basins of Hunan province were collected and concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Pb, Mn, Zn, Fe, Al, and Cu were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The results showed that 10% of the water samples exceeded the limit level of Cd established by World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.003 mg L -1 . Three percent of the samples had Fe level and 1% had As level above the WHO limits of 0.3 and 0.01 mg L -1 , respectively. Multivariate statistic approach (cluster analysis and principal component analysis) results revealed that anthropogenic activities and pipeline corrosion were major sources of TTW contamination in Hunan province. The individual and total hazard quotient values estimated by deterministic and probabilistic approaches were both less than 1. However, the mean cancer risk values of Cd were 2.2 × 10 -4 and 1.4 × 10 -4 for Xiangjiang and Yuanjiang river basin, respectively, both greater than 10 -4 . The 95th percentile value of cancer risk for Cr was slightly greater than 10 -4 in Xiangjiang river basins. Long-term exposure to Cd and Cr through tap water consumption poses moderate carcinogenic health risks to the local residents.

  3. Potential human health risk assessment of heavy metals via the consumption of tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus collected from contaminated and uncontaminated ponds.

    PubMed

    Yap, Chee Kong; Jusoh, Amiruddin; Leong, Wah June; Karami, Ali; Ong, Ghim Hock

    2015-09-01

    Fish tilapia Oreochromis mossambicus were collected from a contaminated Seri Serdang (SS) pond potentially receiving domestic effluents and an uncontaminated pond from Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM). The fish were dissected into four parts namely gills, muscles, intestines, and liver. All the fish parts were pooled and analyzed for the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn. Generally, the concentrations of all metals were low in the edible muscle in comparison to the other parts of the fish. It was found that the levels of all the heavy metals in the different parts of fish collected from the SS were significantly (P<0.05) higher than those from UPM, indicating greater metal bioavailabilities in the SS pond. The sediment data also showed a similar pattern with significantly (P<0.05) higher metal concentrations in SS than in UPM, indicating higher metal contamination in SS. Potential health risk assessments based on provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) and the amount of fish required to reach the PTWI values, estimated daily intake (EDI), and target hazard quotient (THQ) indicated that health risks associated with heavy metal exposure via consumption of the fish's muscles were insignificant to human. Therefore, the consumption of the edible muscles of tilapia from both ponds should pose no toxicological risk of heavy metals since their levels are also below the recommended safety guidelines. While it is advisable to discard the livers, gills, and intestines of the two tilapia fish populations before consumption, there were no potential human health risks of heavy metals to the consumers on the fish muscle part.

  4. Cyanotoxins in inland lakes of the United States: Occurrence and potential recreational health risks in the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loftin, Keith A.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Elizabeth Hilborn,; Sarah Lehmann,; Meyer, Michael T.; Dietze, Julie E.; Griffith, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    A large nation-wide survey of cyanotoxins (1161 lakes) in the United States (U.S.) was conducted during the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007. Cyanotoxin data were compared with cyanobacteria abundance- and chlorophyll-based World Health Organization (WHO) thresholds and mouse toxicity data to evaluate potential recreational risks. Cylindrospermopsins, microcystins, and saxitoxins were detected (ELISA) in 4.0, 32, and 7.7% of samples with mean concentrations of 0.56, 3.0, and 0.061 mg/L, respectively (detections only). Co-occurrence of the three cyanotoxin classes was rare (0.32%) when at least one toxin was detected. Cyanobacteria were present and dominant in 98 and 76% of samples, respectively. Potential anatoxin-, cylindrospermopsin-, microcystin-, and saxitoxin-producing cyanobacteria occurred in 81, 67, 95, and 79% of samples, respectively. Anatoxin-a and nodularin-R were detected (LC/MS/MS) in 15 and 3.7% samples (n = 27). The WHO moderate and high risk thresholds for microcystins, cyanobacteria abundance, and total chlorophyll were exceeded in 1.1, 27, and 44% of samples, respectively. Complete agreement by all three WHO microcystin metrics occurred in 27% of samples. This suggests that WHO microcystin metrics based on total chlorophyll and cyanobacterial abundance can overestimate microcystin risk when compared to WHO microcystin thresholds. The lack of parity among the WHO thresholds was expected since chlorophyll is common amongst all phytoplankton and not all cyanobacteria produce microcystins.

  5. Cyanotoxins in inland lakes of the United States: Occurrence and potential recreational health risks in the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007.

    PubMed

    Loftin, Keith A; Graham, Jennifer L; Hilborn, Elizabeth D; Lehmann, Sarah C; Meyer, Michael T; Dietze, Julie E; Griffith, Christopher B

    2016-06-01

    A large nation-wide survey of cyanotoxins (1161 lakes) in the United States (U.S.) was conducted during the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007. Cyanotoxin data were compared with cyanobacteria abundance- and chlorophyll-based World Health Organization (WHO) thresholds and mouse toxicity data to evaluate potential recreational risks. Cylindrospermopsins, microcystins, and saxitoxins were detected (ELISA) in 4.0, 32, and 7.7% of samples with mean concentrations of 0.56, 3.0, and 0.061μg/L, respectively (detections only). Co-occurrence of the three cyanotoxin classes was rare (0.32%) when at least one toxin was detected. Cyanobacteria were present and dominant in 98 and 76% of samples, respectively. Potential anatoxin-, cylindrospermopsin-, microcystin-, and saxitoxin-producing cyanobacteria occurred in 81, 67, 95, and 79% of samples, respectively. Anatoxin-a and nodularin-R were detected (LC/MS/MS) in 15 and 3.7% samples (n=27). The WHO moderate and high risk thresholds for microcystins, cyanobacteria abundance, and total chlorophyll were exceeded in 1.1, 27, and 44% of samples, respectively. Complete agreement by all three WHO microcystin metrics occurred in 27% of samples. This suggests that WHO microcystin metrics based on total chlorophyll and cyanobacterial abundance can overestimate microcystin risk when compared to WHO microcystin thresholds. The lack of parity among the WHO thresholds was expected since chlorophyll is common amongst all phytoplankton and not all cyanobacteria produce microcystins. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Biodegradative potential of fungal isolates from sacral ambient: In vitro study as risk assessment implication for the conservation of wall paintings

    PubMed Central

    Dimkić, Ivica; Stupar, Miloš; Stanković, Slaviša; Vukojević, Jelena; Ljaljević Grbić, Milica

    2018-01-01

    The principal purpose of the study was to evaluate in vitro the potential ability of fungal isolates obtained from the painted layer of frescoes and surrounding air to induce symptoms of fresco deterioration, associated with their growth and metabolism, so that the risk of such deterioration can be precisely assessed and appropriate conservation treatments formulated. Biodegradative properties of the tested microfungi were qualitatively characterized through the use of a set of special agar plates: CaCO3 glucose agar (calcite dissolution), casein nutrient agar (casein hydrolysis), Czapek-Dox minimal medium (pigment secretion); and Czapek-Dox minimal broth (acid and alkali production). Most of the tested isolates (71.05%) demonstrated at least one of the degradative properties, with Penicillium bilaiae as the most potent, since it tested positive in all four. The remaining isolates (28.95%) showed no deterioration capabilities and were hence considered unlikely to partake in the complex process of fungal deterioration of murals via the tested mechanisms. The obtained results clearly indicate that utilization of fast and simple plate assays can provide insight into the biodegradative potential of deteriogenic fungi and allow for their separation from allochthonous transients, a prerequisite for precise assessment of the amount of risk posed by a thriving mycobiota to mural paintings. PMID:29309432

  7. Potential harmful health effects of inhaling nicotine-free shisha-pen vapor: a chemical risk assessment of the main components propylene glycol and glycerol.

    PubMed

    Kienhuis, Anne S; Soeteman-Hernandez, Lya G; Bos, Peter Mj; Cremers, Hans Wjm; Klerx, Walther N; Talhout, Reinskje

    2015-01-01

    A shisha-pen is an electronic cigarette variant that is advertised to mimic the taste of a water pipe, or shisha. The aim of this study was to assess the potential harmful health effects caused by inhaling the vapor of a nicotine-free shisha-pen. Gas chromatography analysis was performed to determine the major components in shisha-pen vapor. Risk assessment was performed using puff volumes of e-cigarettes and "normal" cigarettes and a 1-puff scenario (one-time exposure). The concentrations that reached the airways and lungs after using a shisha-pen were calculated and compared to data from published toxicity studies. The main components in shisha-pen vapor are propylene glycol and glycerol (54%/46%). One puff (50 to 70 mL) results in exposure of propylene glycol and glycerol of 430 to 603 mg/m(3) and 348 to 495 mg/m(3), respectively. These exposure concentrations were higher than the points of departure for airway irritation based on a human study (propylene glycol, mean concentration of 309 mg/m(3)) and a rat study (glycerol, no-observed adverse effect level of 165 mg/m(3)). Already after one puff of the shisha-pen, the concentrations of propylene glycol and glycerol are sufficiently high to potentially cause irritation of the airways. New products such as the shisha-pen should be detected and risks should be assessed to inform regulatory actions aimed at limiting potential harm that may be caused to consumers and protecting young people to take up smoking.

  8. [Pollution by heavy metals in the petrochemical sewage waters of the sea area of Daya Bay and assessment on potential ecological risks].

    PubMed

    Xu, Shan-Nan; Li, Chun-Hou; Xu, Jiao-Jiao; Xiao, Ya-Yuan; Lin, Lin; Huang, Xiao-Ping

    2014-06-01

    offshore waters were higher than those of inshore waters, and were higher in the bay-mouth than in the bay-head. However, the distributions of potential ERIs showed reversed trend during dry season. The comprehensive assessment results showed that Hg was the primary heavy metal with a high ecological risk whereas the potential ERIs for the other six heavy metals in the petrochemical sewage waters in Daya Bay were relatively low.

  9. TEMPORAL MOISTURE CONTENT VARIABILITY BENEATH AND EXTERNAL TO A BUILDING AND THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON VAPOR INTRUSION RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Migration of vapors from organic chemicals residing in the subsurface into overlying buildings is known as vapor intrusion. Because of the difficulty in evaluating vapor intrusion by indoor air sampling, models are often employed to determine if a potential indoor inhalation exp...

  10. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    PubMed Central

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  11. Assessment of the potential noncancer health hazards of PCBs for inclusion on EPA’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    At present, there are IRIS RfDs for two commercial PCB mixtures: Aroclor 1016 and Aroclor 1254. There is no IRIS RfD for complex PCB mixtures in general; and the RfDs for Aroclor 1016 and Aroclor 1254 were last updated in 1993 and 1994, respectively. The new assessment will integ...

  12. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  13. Risk and benefit assessment of potential neurodevelopmental effect resulting from consumption of marine fish from a coastal archipelago in China.

    PubMed

    Gao, Yi-Xiong; Zhang, Hongxia; Yu, Xinwei; He, Jia-lu; Shang, Xiaohong; Li, Xiaowei; Zhao, Yunfeng; Wu, Yongning

    2014-06-04

    The aim of this study was to assess net neurodevelopmental effect via maternal consumption of marine fish. A total of thirty-one species were collected from Zhoushan, China. The net IQ point gain was assessed by FAO/WHO deterministic approach and probabilistic computation (if necessary). Results of the deterministic assessment of two samples belonging to Scoliodon sorrakowah showed negative IQ point gain in both common and extreme consumption scenarios (175 and 450 g/week, respectively); the net IQ gain caused by both consumption scenarios of other species were positive. Both consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah showed beneficial neurodevelopmental effect according to probabilistic computation (95% CI for mean of net IQ gain: 0.0536-0.0554 and 0.1377-0.1425, respectively). Except for Scoliodon sorrakowah, this study indicates that both consumption scenarios of other studied species would be recommended according to the FAO/WHO approach. There would be no recommendation of consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah for the reason for carefulness.

  14. Don't kill canaries! Introducing a new test device to assess the electrostatic risk potential to photomasks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebald, Thomas

    2008-10-01

    Electrostatic protection is an issue for all masks, whether during mask production, shipping, storage, handling or inspection and exposure. Up to now, only manual electrostatic field measurements, or expensive and elaborate analyses with Canary reticles have given hints about the risks of pattern damage by ESD events. A new test device is being introduced, which consists of electrostatic field sensors, integrated INSIDE a closed fused quartz housing which has the outside dimensions of a 6 inch mask. This device can be handled and used like a normal 6 inch reticle. It can be handled and processed while recording the electrostatic charges on the chrome patterns created by friction or field induction just as a reticle would "see" during normal processing.

  15. Evaluation of military field-water quality: Volume 9, Data for assessing health risks in potential theaters of operation for US military forces: (Final report)

    SciTech Connect

    Daniels, J.I.; Layton, D.W.

    1988-02-01

    Data are presented in this volume for assessing the health risks in populations of military personnel that could result as a consequence of exposure to field waters containing constituents or infectious organisms of military concern, which are from natural and anthropogenic sources, at levels above those recommended as field-water-quality standards (i.e., above safe levels). Turbidity and color are the physical properties that are of military concern in field water. The other constituents that are of military concern in field water are (1) total dissolved solids, (2) chloride, (3) magnesium, (4) sulfate, (5) arsenic, (6) cyanide, (7) the pesticide lindane, andmore » (8) metabolites of algae and associated bacteria. Bacteria, viruses, and parasites (e.g., protozoa and helminths) are categories of water-related infectious organisms that are of military concern. Figures were developed from dose-response data to enable military risk managers to quickly assess the potential performance-degrading effects in personnel exposed to a measured concentration of a particular constituent in field water. The general physical, chemical, and biological quality of field waters in geographic regions worldwide, representing potential theaters of operation for U.S. military forces, also are evaluated. This analysis is based on available water-quality monitoring data and indicators of likely water-quality conditions (e.g., geohydrology, climate, sanitation, industrialization, etc.). Accompanying our evaluation are maps and tables alerting military planners and risk managers to the physical, chemical, or biological quality of field water that can be expected generally in geographic regions of concern.« less

  16. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

  17. Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  18. A preliminary risk assessment of potential exposure to naturally occurring estrogens from Beijing (China) market milk products.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chen; Mi, Xiaoxia; Yuan, Yuwei; Chen, Gang; Ren, Li; Wang, Kaiqiang; Zhu, Dan; Qian, Yongzhong

    2014-09-01

    This study was conducted to determine the occurrence of the natural steroid hormones estrone (E1), 17α-estradiol (αE2), 17β-estradiol (βE2) and estriol (E3) in 38 commercial milk samples obtained from markets in Beijing, China. Liquid Chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was employed to determine estrogens levels. The concentrations of E1, αE2, βE2 and E3 in different milk products varied from 0-146.12 ng/L, 0-70.12 ng/L, 0-31.85 ng/L to 0-2.18 ng/L, respectively. We compared exposures to estrogens through milk consumption with acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) and threshold for toxicological concern (TTC) to determine whether estrogen intakes from milk consumption are larger or smaller than the toxicity-based benchmarks. The combined margin of safety MOS (MOST) for total estrogens are about 72-99, 118-161, 539-1104, for 2-4, 4-7 year-old residential children, and adults, respectively. The lowest MOST for children of 2-4 years old result from comparing total of estrogens with the lowest TTC value (0.15 μg/person/day) (MOS=3.5). The MOS values suggest that the individual and total estrogens that may present in milk are not causing a health risk for the local residents, including young children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Potential risk assessment of metals in edible fish species for human consumption from the Eastern Aegean Sea.

    PubMed

    Pazi, Idil; Gonul, L Tolga; Kucuksezgin, Filiz; Avaz, Gulsen; Tolun, Leyla; Unluoglu, Aydın; Karaaslan, Yakup; Gucver, S Mine; Koc Orhon, Aybala; Siltu, Esra; Olmez, Gulnur

    2017-07-15

    The levels of Hg, Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu and Zn were measured in the tissues of four edible fish species namely: Diplodus annularis, Pagellus erythrinus, Merluccius merluccius and Mullus barbatus, collected from the Turkish Coast of the Aegean Sea. Except for D. annularis, the levels of Cd and Pb in all fish tissues sampled in Aliaga Bay in 2009 were above the tolerable limits according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Hg in P. erythrinus and M. barbatus were higher than the maximum permitted limits (FAO), while D. annularis and M. merluccius were lower than the limit for biota in the district of Aliaga. Although the Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values for Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr, Zn in all fish samples were lower than 1.0, the THQ for Hg levels were higher than 1.0 for most of the samples. According to the THQ values, M. merluccius may be consumed in moderation from Aliaga Bay, while the consumption of M. barbatus and P. erythrinus collected from Aliaga Bay are potentially hazardous to human health due to the Hg concentrations. Fish collected from Izmir Bay can be consumed safely. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Biological exhaust air treatment systems as a potential microbial risk for farm animals assessed with a computer simulation.

    PubMed

    Seedorf, Jens

    2013-09-01

    Livestock operations are under increasing pressure to fulfil minimum environmental requirements and avoid polluting the atmosphere. In regions with high farm animal densities, new farm buildings receive building permission only when biological exhaust air treatment systems (BEATS) are in place, such as biofilters. However, it is currently unknown whether BEATS can harbour pathogens such as zoonotic agents, which are potentially emitted via the purified gas. Because BEATS are located very close to the livestock building, it is assumed that BEATS-related microorganisms are aerially transported to farm animals via the inlet system of the ventilation system. To support this hypothesis, a computer simulation was applied to calculate the wind field around a facility consisting of a virtual livestock house and an adjacent biofilter. Under the chosen wind conditions (speed and direction), it can be shown that turbulences and eddies may occur in the near surrounding of a livestock building with an adjacent biofilter. Consequently, this might cause the entry of the released biofilter's purified gas into the barn, including possible microorganisms within this purified gas. If field investigations verify the results of the simulations, counter-measures must be taken to ensure biosecurity on farms with BEATS. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  1. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  2. In vitro monoamine oxidase inhibition potential of alpha-methyltryptamine analog new psychoactive substances for assessing possible toxic risks.

    PubMed

    Wagmann, Lea; Brandt, Simon D; Kavanagh, Pierce V; Maurer, Hans H; Meyer, Markus R

    2017-04-15

    Tryptamines have emerged as new psychoactive substances (NPS), which are distributed and consumed recreationally without preclinical studies or safety tests. Within the alpha-methylated tryptamines, some of the psychoactive effects of the prototypical alpha-methyltryptamine (AMT) have been described decades ago and a contributing factor of its acute toxicity appears to involve the inhibition of monoamine oxidase (MAO). However, detailed information about analogs is scarce. Therefore, thirteen AMT analogs were investigated for their potential to inhibit MAO. An in vitro assay analyzed using hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography-high resolution-tandem mass spectrometry was developed and validated. The AMT analogs were incubated with recombinant human MAO-A or B and kynuramine, a non-selective MAO substrate to determine the IC 50 values. The known MAO-A inhibitors 5-(2-aminopropyl)indole (5-IT), harmine, harmaline, yohimbine, and the MAO-B inhibitor selegiline were tested for comparison. AMT and all analogs showed MAO-A inhibition properties with IC 50 values between 0.049 and 166μM, whereas four analogs inhibited also MAO-B with IC 50 values between 82 and 376μM. 7-Me-AMT provided the lowest IC 50 value against MAO-A comparable to harmine and harmaline and was identified as a competitive MAO-A inhibitor. Furthermore, AMT, 7-Me-AMT, and nine further analogs inhibited MAO activity in human hepatic S9 fraction used as model for the human liver which expresses both isoforms. The obtained results suggested that MAO inhibition induced by alpha-methylated tryptamines might be clinically relevant concerning possible serotonergic and adrenergic effects and interactions with drugs (of abuse) particularly acting as monoamine reuptake inhibitors. However, as in vitro assays have only limited conclusiveness, further studies are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. CREAT Risk Assessment Application for Water Utilities

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

  4. Bioavailability and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in garden edible vegetables and soils around a highly contaminated former mining area in Germany.

    PubMed

    Antoniadis, Vasileios; Shaheen, Sabry M; Boersch, Judith; Frohne, Tina; Du Laing, Gijs; Rinklebe, Jörg

    2017-01-15

    Although soil contamination by potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in Europe has a history of many centuries, related problems are often considered as having been dealt with due to the enforcement of tight legislations. However, there are many unsolved issues. We aimed to assess PTE levels in highly contaminated soils and in garden edible vegetables using human health risk indices in order to evaluate the availability and mobilization of arsenic (As), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). In four gardens in Germany, situated on, or in the vicinity of, a mine dump area, we planted beans (Phaseolus vulgaris ssp. nanus), carrots (Daucus sativus) and lettuce (Lactuca sativa ssp. capitata). We examined soil-to-plant mobilization of elements using transfer coefficient (TC), as well as soil contamination using contamination factor (CF), enrichment factor (EF), and bioaccumulation index (I geo ). In addition, we tested two human health risk assessment indices: Soil-induced hazard quotient (HQ S ) (representing the "direct soil ingestion" pathway), and vegetable-induced hazard quotient (HQ V ) (representing the "vegetable intake" pathway). The studied elements were highly elevated in the soils. The values in garden 2 were especially high (e.g., Pb: 13789.0 and Hg: 36.8 mg kg -1 ) and largely exceeded the reported regulation limits of 50 (for As), 40 (Cu), 400 (Pb), 150 (Zn), and 5 (Hg) mg kg -1 . Similarly, element concentrations were very high in the grown vegetables. The indices of CF, EF and I geo were enhanced even to levels that are rarely reported in the literature. Specifically, garden 2 indicated severe contamination due to multi-element deposition. The contribution of each PTE to the total of measured HQ S revealed that Pb was the single most important element causing health risk (contributing up to 77% to total HQ S ). Lead also posed the highest risk concerning vegetable consumption, contributing up to 77% to total HQ V . The

  5. Assessment of inhalation exposures and potential health risks to the general population that resulted from the collapse of the World Trade Center towers.

    PubMed

    Lorber, Matthew; Gibb, Herman; Grant, Lester; Pinto, Joseph; Pleil, Joachim; Cleverly, David

    2007-10-01

    In the days following the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) towers on September 11, 2001 (9/11), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the ongoing impact of emissions from that disaster. Using these data, EPA conducted an inhalation exposure and human health risk assessment to the general population. This assessment does not address exposures and potential impacts that could have occurred to rescue workers, firefighters, and other site workers, nor does it address exposures that could have occurred in the indoor environment. Contaminants evaluated include particulate matter (PM), metals, polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins, asbestos, volatile organic compounds, particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, silica, and synthetic vitreous fibers (SVFs). This evaluation yielded three principal findings. (1) Persons exposed to extremely high levels of ambient PM and its components, SVFs, and other contaminants during the collapse of the WTC towers, and for several hours afterward, were likely to be at risk for acute and potentially chronic respiratory effects. (2) Available data suggest that contaminant concentrations within and near ground zero (GZ) remained significantly elevated above background levels for a few days after 9/11. Because only limited data on these critical few days were available, exposures and potential health impacts could not be evaluated with certainty for this time period. (3) Except for inhalation exposures that may have occurred on 9/11 and a few days afterward, the ambient air concentration data suggest that persons in the general population were unlikely to suffer short-term or long-term adverse health effects caused by inhalation exposures. While this analysis by EPA evaluated the potential for health impacts based on measured air concentrations, epidemiological studies conducted by organizations other than EPA have attempted to identify actual impacts. Such

  6. Principles in genetic risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Baptista, Pedro Viana

    2005-03-01

    Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed.

  7. Principles in genetic risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Baptista, Pedro Viana

    2005-01-01

    Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed. PMID:18360538

  8. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Cancer.gov

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  9. A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

    PubMed

    Bassett, J; McClure, P

    2008-04-01

    To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

  10. La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

    2009-12-01

    Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

  11. Assessing Employee Potentials for Abuse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, M. Dean; McQueen, William M.

    1983-01-01

    Administered questionnaires to abusive (N=21) and nonabusive (N=21) employees to identify potential for institutional child abuse. Results corroborated earlier findings of institutional child abuse and demonstrated an attempt at developing an assessment tool needed to screen staff who are working with the developmentally disabled and children in…

  12. Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  13. Assessment of potential environmental risks of transgene flow in smallholder farming systems in Asia: Brassica napus as a case study in Korea.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Chuan-Jie; Yook, Min-Jung; Park, Hae-Rim; Lim, Soo-Hyun; Kim, Jin-Won; Nah, Gyoungju; Song, Hae-Ryong; Jo, Beom-Ho; Roh, Kyung Hee; Park, Suhyoung; Kim, Do-Soon

    2018-06-02

    The cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops has raised many questions regarding their environmental risks, particularly about their ecological impact on non-target organisms, such as their closely-related relative species. Although evaluations of transgene flow from GM crops to their conventional crops has been conducted under large-scale farming system worldwide, in particular in North America and Australia, few studies have been conducted under smallholder farming systems in Asia with diverse crops in co-existence. A two-year field study was conducted to assess the potential environmental risks of gene flow from glufosinate-ammonium resistant (GR) Brassica napus to its conventional relatives, B. napus, B. juncea, and Raphanus sativus under simulated smallholder field conditions in Korea. Herbicide resistance and simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers were used to identify the hybrids. Hybridization frequency of B. napus × GR B. napus was 2.33% at a 2 m distance, which decreased to 0.007% at 75 m. For B. juncea, it was 0.076% at 2 m and decreased to 0.025% at 16 m. No gene flow was observed to R. sativus. The log-logistic model described hybridization frequency with increasing distance from GR B. napus to B. napus and B. juncea and predicted that the effective isolation distances for 0.01% gene flow from GR B. napus to B. napus and B. juncea were 122.5 and 23.7 m, respectively. Results suggest that long-distance gene flow from GR B. napus to B. napus and B. juncea is unlikely, but gene flow can potentially occur between adjacent fields where the smallholder farming systems exist. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  15. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    PubMed

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  16. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  17. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  18. Risk Assessment for NOTES

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    this is probably a low risk. Risks with Fuel Transfer (5) If a pulse occurs as fuel is being dispensed, say into a lawn mower , and the fueling nozzle is...occur near combustible materials or vapors, such as gasoline fumes. WARNING: As a safety precaution, the refueling of lawn mowers or other power

  19. NANOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT CASE STUDY WORKSHOPS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...

  20. Prioritizing stream types according to their potential risk to receive crop plant material--A GIS-based procedure to assist in the risk assessment of genetically modified crops and systemic insecticide residues.

    PubMed

    Bundschuh, Rebecca; Kuhn, Ulrike; Bundschuh, Mirco; Naegele, Caroline; Elsaesser, David; Schlechtriemen, Ulrich; Oehen, Bernadette; Hilbeck, Angelika; Otto, Mathias; Schulz, Ralf; Hofmann, Frieder

    2016-03-15

    Crop plant residues may enter aquatic ecosystems via wind deposition or surface runoff. In the case of genetically modified crops or crops treated with systemic pesticides, these materials may contain insecticidal Bt toxins or pesticides that potentially affect aquatic life. However, the particular exposure pattern of aquatic ecosystems (i.e., via plant material) is not properly reflected in current risk assessment schemes, which primarily focus on waterborne toxicity and not on plant material as the route of uptake. To assist in risk assessment, the present study proposes a prioritization procedure of stream types based on the freshwater network and crop-specific cultivation data using maize in Germany as a model system. To identify stream types with a high probability of receiving crop materials, we developed a formalized, criteria-based and thus transparent procedure that considers the exposure-related parameters, ecological status--an estimate of the diversity and potential vulnerability of local communities towards anthropogenic stress--and availability of uncontaminated reference sections. By applying the procedure to maize, ten stream types out of 38 are expected to be the most relevant if the ecological effects from plant-incorporated pesticides need to be evaluated. This information is an important first step to identifying habitats within these stream types with a high probability of receiving crop plant material at a more local scale, including accumulation areas. Moreover, the prioritization procedure developed in the present study may support the selection of aquatic species for ecotoxicological testing based on their probability of occurrence in stream types having a higher chance of exposure. Finally, this procedure can be adapted to any geographical region or crop of interest and is, therefore, a valuable tool for a site-specific risk assessment of crop plants carrying systemic pesticides or novel proteins, such as insecticidal Bt toxins, expressed

  1. A systematic review to identify and assess the effectiveness of alternatives for people over the age of 65 who are at risk of potentially avoidable hospital admission.

    PubMed

    Huntley, Alyson L; Chalder, Melanie; Shaw, Ali R G; Hollingworth, William; Metcalfe, Chris; Benger, Jonathan Richard; Purdy, Sarah

    2017-08-01

    There are some older patients who are 'at the decision margin' of admission. This systematic review sought to explore this issue with the following objective: what admission alternatives are there for older patients and are they safe, effective and cost-effective? A secondary objective was to identify the characteristics of those older patients for whom the decision to admit to hospital may be unclear. Systematic review of controlled studies (April 2005-December 2016) with searches in Medline, Embase, Cinahl and CENTRAL databases. The protocol is registered at PROSPERO (CRD42015020371). Studies were assessed using Cochrane risk of bias criteria, and relevant reviews were assessed with the AMSTAR tool. The results are presented narratively and discussed. Primary and secondary healthcare interface. People aged over 65 years at risk of an unplanned admission. Any community-based intervention offered as an alternative to admission to an acute hospital. Reduction in secondary care use, patient-related outcomes, safety and costs. Nineteen studies and seven systematic reviews were identified. These recruited patients with both specific conditions and mixed chronic and acute conditions. The interventions involved paramedic/emergency care practitioners (n=3), emergency department-based interventions (n=3), community hospitals (n=2) and hospital-at-home services (n=11). Data suggest that alternatives to admission appear safe with potential to reduce secondary care use and length of time receiving care. There is a lack of patient-related outcomes and cost data. The important features of older patients for whom the decision to admit is uncertain are: age over 75 years, comorbidities/multi-morbidities, dementia, home situation, social support and individual coping abilities. This systematic review describes and assesses evidence on alternatives to acute care for older patients and shows that many of the options available are safe and appear to reduce resource use. However, cost

  2. Assessment of potential health risk of fluoride consumption through rice, pulses, and vegetables in addition to consumption of fluoride-contaminated drinking water of West Bengal, India.

    PubMed

    Bhattacharya, Piyal; Samal, Alok Chandra; Banerjee, Suman; Pyne, Jagadish; Santra, Subhas Chandra

    2017-09-01

    A study was conducted in fluoride-affected Bankura and Purulia districts of West Bengal to assess the potential health risk from fluoride exposure among children, teenagers, and adults due to consumption of rice, pulses, and vegetables in addition to drinking water and incidental ingestion of soil by children. Higher mean fluoride contents (13-63 mg/kg dry weight) were observed in radish, carrot, onion bulb, brinjal, potato tuber, cauliflower, cabbage, coriander, and pigeon pea. The combined influence of rice, pulses, and vegetables to cumulative estimated daily intake (EDI) of fluoride for the studied population was found to be 9.5-16%. Results also showed that intake of ivy gourd, broad beans, rice, turnip, fenugreek leaves, mustard, spinach, and amaranth grown in the study area is safe at least for time being. The cumulative EDI values of fluoride (0.06-0.19 mg/kg-day) among different age group of people of the study area were evaluated to be ~10 4 times higher than those living in the control area; the values for children (0.19 and 0.52 mg/kg-day for CTE and RME scenarios, respectively) were also greater than the "Tolerable Upper Intake Level" value of fluoride. The estimated hazard index (HI) for children (3.2 and 8.7 for CTE and RME scenarios, respectively) living in the two affected districts reveals that they are at high risk of developing dental fluorosis due to the consumption of fluoride-contaminated rice, pulses, and vegetables grown in the study area in addition to the consumption of contaminated drinking water.

  3. Assessing the potential ecological risk of Co, Cr, Cu, Fe and Zn in the sediments of Hooghly-Matla estuarine system, India.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Somdeep; Bakshi, Madhurima; Kumar, Alok; Ramanathan, A L; Biswas, Jayanta Kumar; Bhattacharyya, Subarna; Chaudhuri, Punarbasu; Shaheen, Sabry M; Rinklebe, Jörg

    2018-05-09

    Hooghly-Matla estuarine system along with the Sundarbans mangroves forms one of the most diverse and vulnerable ecosystems in the world. We have investigated the distribution of Co, Cr, Cu, Fe and Zn along with sediment properties at six locations [Shamshernagar (S1), Kumirmari (S2 and S3), Petuaghat (S4), Tapoban (S5) and Chemaguri (S6)] in the Hooghly estuary and reclaimed islands of the Sundarbans for assessing the degree of contamination and potential ecological risks. Enrichment factor values (0.9-21.6) show enrichment of Co, Cu and Zn in the intertidal sediments considering all sampling locations and depth profiles. Geo-accumulation index values irrespective of sampling locations and depth revealed that Co and Cu are under class II and class III level indicating a moderate contamination of sediments. The pollution load index was higher than unity (1.6-2.1), and Co and Cu were the major contributors to the sediment pollution followed by Zn, Cr and Fe with the minimum values at S1 and the maximum values at S5. The sediments of the Hooghly-Matla estuarine region (S4, S5 and S6) showed considerable ecological risks, when compared with effect range low/effect range median and threshold effect level/probable effect level values. The variation in the distribution of the studied elements may be due to variation in discharge pattern and exposure to industrial effluent and domestic sewage, storm water and agricultural run-off and fluvial dynamics of the region. The study illuminates the necessity for the proper management of vulnerable coastal estuarine ecosystem by stringent pollution control measures along with regular monitoring and checking program.

  4. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Cancer.gov

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  5. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  7. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  8. Genomic variation in the MMP-1 promoter influences estrogen receptor mediated activity in a mechanically activated environment: potential implications for microgravity risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaler, John; Myers, Ken; Lu, Ting; Hart, David

    examine the potential impact of the 1G/2G SNP on the cellular response to mechanical loading. HIG-82 cells are estrogen receptor (ER) negative and were transiently transfected with SV40 expression vectors for either ER-α or ER-β isoforms. Cells grown on glass slides were also co-transfected with either a 1G or 2G MMP-1 promoter-luciferase construct. Transfected cells were subjected to dynamic shear stress in a Flexcell Streamer Shear Stress Device. The dynamic loading regime was 0.5 Hz, 10 dyn/cm2 shear for 1 minute followed by 14 minutes rest and repeated for 8 hrs. A Promega Dual Luciferase Reporter Assay System was used to assess MMP-1 promoter activity. Results: Shear stress loading increased both 1G and 2G MMP-1 promoter activity compared to unloaded controls, however the 2G promoter had significantly higher rates of expression than the 1G promoter across all loading regimes and ER co-transfections. Transfection with ER-β resulted in higher MMP-1 promoter activity than that in cells expressing ER-α or in ER-neg cells. Conclusions: Specific genomic variations can lead to differences in cellular responses to changes in mechanical loading environments such as are encountered in microgravity environments or earth-based analogs. These genomic differences may predispose individuals to greater risk of bone loss. It is important to understand the combined effects of mechanical loading, genetic variation and sex hormones on bone maintenance so that risks can be identified for microgravity or analog environments, and specific interventions developed to counteract such risk or even exclude some individuals from prolonged space environments due to the extent of the risk.

  9. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  10. [Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: preliminary results].

    PubMed

    Palmieri, Luigi; Rielli, Rita; Demattè, Luca; Donfrancesco, Chiara; La Terza, Giampaolo; De Sanctis Caiola, Patrizia; Dima, Francesco; Lo Noce, Cinzia; Giannelli, Anna Maria; Brignoli, Ovidio; Cuffari, Alfredo; De Rosa, Marisa; Addis, Antonio; Laurendi, Giovanna; Giampaoli, Simona

    2010-02-01

    The Italian National Prevention plan includes 10-year cardiovascular risk (CR) assessment of the Italian general population aged 35-69 years using the CUORE Project risk score. A national training program for general practitioners (GPs) was launched by the Ministry of Health in 2003. GPs were encouraged to collect data on risk factors and risk assessment and to contribute to the CUORE Project Cardiovascular Risk Observatory (CRO). The aim of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of risk assessment in primary care. The cuore.exe software, free of charge for GPs and easily downloadable from the CUORE Project web site (www.cuore.iss.it), is the frame for the GP data collection. The CRO provides a platform to analyze data collected on risk assessment and risk factors, and compare results at regional and national level in order to support health policy makers in their decision process. From January 2007 to April 2009, 2858 GPs have downloaded the cuore.exe software; 102,113 risk assessments were sent to the CRO based on risk factors profile of 87,556 persons (3617 persons had more than 1 risk assessment). Mean level of CR was 3.1% in women and 8.4% in men; 30% of men and 65% of women were at low risk (CR < 3%), 9% of men and 0.4% of women were found at high risk (CR > or = 20%). Among those with at least 2 risk assessments, 8% shifted to a lower class of risk after 1 year. Mean level of systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by about 1% in 1 year; total cholesterol more than 2%, and prevalence of smokers decreased by about 3% in the second risk assessment. These data demonstrate that risk assessment can be included as a first step of prevention in primary care. The CUORE Project individual score is expected to become an important tool for GPs to assess their patients' CR, to promote primary prevention, and to focus attention to healthy lifestyle adoption.

  11. Bioavailability of potentially toxic elements in soil-grapevine (leaf, skin, pulp and seed) system and environmental and health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Milićević, Tijana; Urošević, Mira Aničić; Relić, Dubravka; Vuković, Gordana; Škrivanj, Sandra; Popović, Aleksandar

    2018-06-01

    Monitoring of potentially toxic elements in agricultural soil represents the first measure of caution regarding food safety, while research into element bioavailability should be a step forward in understanding the element transportation chain. This study was conducted in the grapevine growing area ("Oplenac Wine Route") for investigating element bioavailability in the soil-grapevine system accompanied by an assessment of the ecological implications and human health risk. Single extraction procedures (CH 3 COOH, Na 2 EDTA, CaCl 2 , NH 4 NO 3 and deionised H 2 O) and digestion were performed to estimate the bioavailability of 22 elements (Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sr, V and Zn) from the topsoil (0-30 cm) and subsoil (30-60 cm) to the grapevine parts (leaf, skin, pulp and seed) and wine. The extractants were effective comparing to the pseudo-total concentrations in following order Na 2 EDTA ˃ CH 3 COOH ˃ NH 4 NO 3  ˃ CaCl 2 , H 2 O 2 h and 16 h. The most suitable extractants for assessing the bioavailability of the elements from the soil to the grapevine parts were CaCl 2 , NH 4 NO 3 and Na 2 EDTA, but deionised H 2 O could be suitable, as well. The results showed that Ba was the most bioavailable element in the soil-grapevine system. Contamination factor implied a moderate contamination (1 < CF < 3) of the soil. The concentrations of Cr, Ni and Cd in the soil were above the maximum allowed concentrations. According to the biological accumulation coefficient (BAC), the grape seeds and grapevine leaves mostly accumulated Cu and Zn from the soil, respectively. Based on ratio factor (RF > 1), the influence of atmospheric deposition on the aerial grapevine parts (leaves and grape skin) was observed. Nevertheless, low adverse health risk effects (HI < 1 and R ≤ 1 × 10 -6 ) were estimated for farmers and grape and wine consumers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  12. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  13. Chemical Mixtures and Epidemiologic Fundamentals for Risk Assessment Applications

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk management options are increasingly being considered early in the risk assessment process to help scope the considerations and bound the inherent complexities related to potential exposures, risk and future clean-up decisions (including acceptable pollutant levels) related t...

  14. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  15. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

  17. Residual Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    Each source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-...

  18. Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiras, Daniel D.

    1982-01-01

    Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

  19. REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

  20. Environmental risk assessment of paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Virginia L; Constable, David J C; Hannah, Robert E

    2004-06-15

    watershed-based environmental risk assessment model, PhATE, to predict environmental concentrations (PECs). Comparison of the calculated PECs with the PNEC allows an assessment of potential environmental risk. Within the 1-99% of stream segments in the PhATE model, PEC values ranged from 0.003 to 100 ng/L. The risk assessment PEC/PNEC ratios ranged from approximately 3 x 10(-8) to approximately 3 x 10(-3), indicating a wide margin of safety, since a PEC/PNEC ratio <1 is generally considered to represent a low risk to the environment. In addition, Microtox studies carried out on PM biodegradation byproducts indicated no detectable residual toxicity. Any compounds in the environment as a result of the biodegradation of PM should be innocuous polar byproducts that should not exert any toxic effects.

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  4. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    PubMed

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    PubMed

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    This document is the Executive Summary of a technical report on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle vehicle performed under the sponsorship of the Office of Space Flight of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It briefly summarizes the methodology and results of the Shuttle PRA. The primary objective of this project was to support management and engineering decision-making with respect to the Shuttle program by producing (1) a quantitative probabilistic risk model of the Space Shuttle during flight, (2) a quantitative assessment of in-flight safety risk, (3) an identification and prioritization of the design and operations that principally contribute to in-flight safety risk, and (4) a mechanism for risk-based evaluation proposed modifications to the Shuttle System. Secondary objectives were to provide a vehicle for introducing and transferring PRA technology to the NASA community, and to demonstrate the value of PRA by applying it beneficially to a real program of great international importance.

  7. ADVANCED PESTICIDE RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and growth regulating chemicals is necessary in modern agriculture, silviculture, and public health vector control operations. The task for environmental risk assessment is to delineate the food chain contamination and ecological v...

  8. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: HALOGENATED SOLVENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Halogenated Solvent Degreasing Facilities. These assessments utilize existing models and d...

  9. Tornado damage risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Reinhold, T.A.; Ellingwood, B.

    1982-09-01

    Several proposed models were evaluated for predicting tornado wind speed probabilities at nuclear plant sites as part of a program to develop statistical data on tornadoes needed for probability-based load combination analysis. A unified model was developed which synthesized the desired aspects of tornado occurrence and damage potential. The sensitivity of wind speed probability estimates to various tornado modeling assumptions are examined, and the probability distributions of tornado wind speed that are needed for load combination studies are presented.

  10. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-04-01

    17 5.4.2 Step 2: Gather relevant technology and alternative information............... 17 5.4.3 Step 3: Secure SME support for readiness...level assessment. ................... 17 5.4.4 Step 4: SMEs assess TRL, IRL, and MRL for each technology. .............. 17 5.4.5 Step 5: Identify...technical risks, risk ratings, and mitigations. .................. 20 5.4.6 Step 6: SMEs identify key technologies

  11. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  12. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

  13. Bilastine: an environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Lucero, María Luisa; Peither, Armin; Ledo, Francisco

    2015-10-01

    Bilastine is a new oral selective, non-sedating histamine H1 antagonist for the symptomatic treatment of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and urticaria. The European Medicines Agency requires an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for all novel medicines for human use. To calculate the bilastine predicted environmental concentration in surface water (PECsw; phase I ERA), and to determine the effects of bilastine on aquatic systems (phase II [tier A]). Bilastine PECsw was calculated using the maximum daily dosage (20 mg), assuming that all administered bilastine was released into the aquatic environment. A persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity assessment was conducted using the log Kow from the molecular structure. In phase II (tier A), a ready biodegradability test was performed, and bilastine's potential toxicity to various aquatic and sediment-dwelling micro-organisms was evaluated. Bilastine PECSW was calculated as 0.1 μg L(-1), and the compound was not readily biodegradable. Bilastine had no significant effects on Chironomus riparius midges, or on the respiration rate of activated sludge. For green algae, the bilastine no observed effect concentration (NOEC) was 22 mg L(-1); bilastine had no effect on zebra fish development, or on the reproduction rate of daphnids. Bilastine NOEC values against zebra fish, algae, daphnids, and aerobic organisms in activated sludge were at least 130 000-fold greater than the calculated PECSW value. No environmental concerns exist from bilastine use in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis or urticaria.

  14. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  15. Assessment of the potential health risks associated with the aluminium, arsenic, cadmium and lead content in selected fruits and vegetables grown in Jamaica.

    PubMed

    Antoine, Johann M R; Fung, Leslie A Hoo; Grant, Charles N

    2017-01-01

    Thirteen Jamaican-grown food crops - ackee ( Blighia sapida ), banana ( Musa acuminate ), cabbage ( Brassica oleracea ), carrot ( Daucus carota ), cassava ( Manihot esculenta ), coco ( Xanthosoma sagittifolium ), dasheen ( Colocasia esculenta ), Irish potato ( Solanum tuberosum ), pumpkin ( Cucurbita pepo ), sweet pepper ( Capsicum annuum ), sweet potato ( Ipomoea batatas ), tomato ( Solanum lycopersicum ) and turnip ( Brassica rapa ) - were analysed for aluminium, arsenic, cadmium and lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry and instrumental neutron activation analysis. The fresh weight mean concentrations in these food crops (4.25-93.12 mg/kg for aluminium; 0.001-0.104 mg/kg for arsenic; 0.015-0.420 mg/kg for cadmium; 0.003-0.100 mg/kg for lead) were used to calculate the estimated daily intake (EDI), target hazard quotient (THQ), hazard index (HI) and target cancer risk (TCR) for arsenic, associated with dietary exposure to these potentially toxic elements. Each food type had a THQ and HI < 1 indicating no undue non-carcinogenic risk from exposure to a single or multiple potentially toxic elements from the same food. The TCR for arsenic in these foods were all below 1 × 10 -4 , the upper limit used for acceptable cancer risk. There is no significant health risk to the consumer associated with the consumption of these Jamaican-grown food crops.

  16. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  17. Assessment of the potential human health risks from exposure to complex substances in accordance with REACH requirements. "White spirit" as a case study.

    PubMed

    McKee, Richard H; Tibaldi, Rosalie; Adenuga, Moyinoluwa D; Carrillo, Juan-Carlos; Margary, Alison

    2018-02-01

    The European chemical control regulation (REACH) requires that data on physical/chemical, toxicological and environmental hazards be compiled. Additionally, REACH requires formal assessments to ensure that substances can be safely used for their intended purposes. For health hazard assessments, reference values (Derived No Effect levels, DNELs) are calculated from toxicology data and compared to estimated exposure levels. If the ratio of the predicted exposure level to the DNEL, i.e. the Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR), is less than 1, the risk is considered controlled; otherwise, additional Risk Management Measures (RMM) must be applied. These requirements pose particular challenges for complex substances. Herein, "white spirit", a complex hydrocarbon solvent, is used as an example to illustrate how these procedures were applied. Hydrocarbon solvents were divided into categories of similar substances. Representative substances were identified for DNEL determinations. Adjustment factors were applied to the no effect levels to calculate the DNELs. Exposure assessments utilized a standardized set of generic exposure scenarios (GES) which incorporated exposure predictions for solvent handling activities. Computer-based tools were developed to automate RCR calculations and identify appropriate RMMs, allowing consistent communications to users via safety data sheets. Copyright © 2017 ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  19. A new risk assessment approach for the prioritization of 500 classical and emerging organic microcontaminants as potential river basin specific pollutants under the European Water Framework Directive.

    PubMed

    von der Ohe, Peter Carsten; Dulio, Valeria; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; De Deckere, Eric; Kühne, Ralph; Ebert, Ralf-Uwe; Ginebreda, Antoni; De Cooman, Ward; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Brack, Werner

    2011-05-01

    Given the huge number of chemicals released into the environment and existing time and budget constraints, there is a need to prioritize chemicals for risk assessment and monitoring in the context of the European Union Water Framework Directive (EU WFD). This study is the first to assess the risk of 500 organic substances based on observations in the four European river basins of the Elbe, Scheldt, Danube and Llobregat. A decision tree is introduced that first classifies chemicals into six categories depending on the information available, which allows water managers to focus on the next steps (e.g. derivation of Environmental Quality Standards (EQS), improvement of analytical methods, etc.). The priority within each category is then evaluated based on two indicators, the Frequency of Exceedance and the Extent of Exceedance of Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNECs). These two indictors are based on maximum environmental concentrations (MEC), rather than the commonly used statistically based averages (Predicted Effect Concentration, PEC), and compared to the lowest acute-based (PNEC(acute)) or chronic-based thresholds (PNEC(chronic)). For 56% of the compounds, PNECs were available from existing risk assessments, and the majority of these PNECs were derived from chronic toxicity data or simulated ecosystem studies (mesocosm) with rather low assessment factors. The limitations of this concept for risk assessment purposes are discussed. For the remainder, provisional PNECs (P-PNECs) were established from read-across models for acute toxicity to the standard test organisms Daphnia magna, Pimephales promelas and Selenastrum capricornutum. On the one hand, the prioritization revealed that about three-quarter of the 44 substances with MEC/PNEC ratios above ten were pesticides. On the other hand, based on the monitoring data used in this study, no risk with regard to the water phase could be found for eight of the 41 priority substances, indicating a first success of

  20. Fall risk assessment and prevention.

    PubMed

    Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette

    2011-02-01

    Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.

  1. TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

  2. Combined early and adult life risk factor associations for mid-life obesity in a prospective birth cohort: assessing potential public health impact.

    PubMed

    Pinto Pereira, Snehal M; van Veldhoven, Karin; Li, Leah; Power, Chris

    2016-04-12

    The combined effect of life-course influences on obesity development and thus their potential public health impact is unclear. We evaluated combined associations and predicted probabilities for early and adult life risk factors with central and general obesity in mid-adulthood. 1958 British birth cohort. 4629 males and 4670 females with data on waist circumference. 45 year obesity measured via waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR) and BMI. At 45 years, approximately a third of the population were centrally obese and a quarter were generally obese. Three factors (parental overweight, maternal smoking during pregnancy and adult inactivity) were consistently associated with central and general obesity. Predicted probabilities for waist obesity increased from those with none to all three risk factors (0.15-0.33 in men; 0.19-0.39 in women (ptrend<0.001)), with a similar trend for general obesity. Additional factors (adult smoking, low fibre and heavy alcohol consumption) were associated with WHR obesity, although varying by gender. Prevalence of risk factors was higher in manual than non-manual groups: for example, in men 38% versus 25%, respectively, had ≥2 risk factors for waist and general obesity. Early-life and adult factors that are amenable to change are highly prevalent and accumulate in association with central and general obesity in mid-adulthood. The increase in probabilities for mid-adult obesity associated with cumulative levels of risk factors suggests the potential for public health impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  3. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  4. Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

    2017-04-01

    Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

  5. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less

  6. Assessment of exposures and potential risks to the US adult population from wear (attrition and abrasion) of gold and ceramic dental restorations.

    PubMed

    Richardson, G Mark; Clemow, Scott R; Peters, Rachel E; James, Kyle J; Siciliano, Steven D

    2016-01-01

    Little has been published on the chemical exposures and risks of dental restorative materials other than from dental amalgam and composite resins. Here we provide the first exposure and risk assessment for gold (Au) alloy and ceramic restorative materials. Based on the 2001-2004 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we assessed the exposure of US adults to the components of Au alloy and ceramic dental restorations owing to dental material wear. Silver (Ag) is the most problematic component of Au alloy restorations, owing to a combination of toxicity and proportional composition. It was estimated that adults could possess an average of four tooth surfaces restored with Au alloy before exceeding, on average, the reference exposure level (REL) for Ag. Lithium (Li) is the most problematic component of dental ceramics. It was estimated that adults could possess an average of 15 tooth surfaces restored with ceramics before exceeding the REL for Li. Relative risks of chemical exposures from dental materials decrease in the following order: Amalgam>Au alloys>ceramics>composite resins.

  7. Assessment of the Distribution, Sources and Potential Ecological Risk of Heavy Metals in the Dry Surface Sediment of Aibi Lake in Northwest China

    PubMed Central

    Abuduwaili, Jilili; Zhang, Zhao yong; Jiang, Feng qing

    2015-01-01

    The distribution, sources and potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediment of lakes in eastern China and other areas of the world that have undergone rapid economic development have been widely researched by scholars. However, this is not true for heavy metals in the sediment of rump lakes in the arid regions of China and world-wide. Because of this, we chose Aibi Lake to serve as a typical rump lake in an oasis in an arid area in northwest China for our study. Sediment samples were collected from the lake and then the quantities of the heavy metals Pb, Ni, Cd, Cu, Zn, Hg and Cr were measured. Then using a variety of statistical methods, we analyzed the distribution, sources, pollution status and the potential ecological risk of these metals. The results show that: (1) The amounts of the seven heavy metals all fell within the Second Soil National Standard, but the average and maximum values were all higher than the background values of Xinjiang in northwest China. (2) Multivariate statistical analysis determined that the Cd, Pb, Hg and Zn in the sediment were mainly derived from man-sources, and Cu, Ni, and Cr were mainly from the natural geological background. (3) Enrichment factor analysis and the geo-accumulation index evaluation method show that Cd, Hg and Pb in the surface sediment of the Aibi Lake were at low and partial pollution levels, while Zn, Cr, Ni and Cu were at no and low pollution levels. (4) Calculation of the potential ecological hazards index found that, among the seven tested heavy metals, Cd, Hg and Pb were the main potential ecological risk factors, and the contribution of each was 42.6%, 28.6%, and 24.0%, respectively. Cd is the main potential ecological risk factor, followed by Hg and Pb. This work revealed that recent economic development of the Aibi Lake Basin has negatively influenced the accumulation of heavy metals in the sediments of the lake, and, therefore, we should pay increasing attention to this problem and take

  8. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    MedlinePlus

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  9. Exploring the potential reservoirs of non specific TEM beta lactamase (bla(TEM)) gene in the Indo-Gangetic region: A risk assessment approach to predict health hazards.

    PubMed

    Singh, Gulshan; Vajpayee, Poornima; Rani, Neetika; Amoah, Isaac Dennis; Stenström, Thor Axel; Shanker, Rishi

    2016-08-15

    The emergence of antimicrobial resistant bacteria is an important public health and environmental contamination issue. Antimicrobials of β-lactam group accounts for approximately two thirds, by weight, of all antimicrobials administered to humans due to high clinical efficacy and low toxicity. This study explores β-lactam resistance determinant gene (blaTEM) as emerging contaminant in Indo-Gangetic region using qPCR in molecular beacon format. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) approach was adopted to predict risk to human health associated with consumption/exposure of surface water, potable water and street foods contaminated with bacteria having blaTEM gene. It was observed that surface water and sediments of the river Ganga and Gomti showed high numbers of blaTEM gene copies and varied significantly (p<0.05) among the sampling locations. The potable water collected from drinking water facility and clinical settings exhibit significant number of blaTEM gene copies (13±0.44-10200±316 gene copies/100mL). It was observed that E.crassipes among aquatic flora encountered in both the rivers had high load of blaTEM gene copies. The information on prevalence of environmental reservoirs of blaTEM gene containing bacteria in Indo-Gangetic region and risk associated will be useful for formulating strategies to protect public from menace of clinical risks linked with antimicrobial resistant bacteria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Dose-to-dose variations with single packages of counterfeit medicines and adulterated dietary supplements as a potential source of false negatives and inaccurate health risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Venhuis, B J; Zwaagstra, M E; Keizers, P H J; de Kaste, D

    2014-02-01

    In this report, we show three examples of how the variability in dose units in single packages of counterfeit medicines and adulterated dietary supplements may contribute to a false negative screening result and inaccurate health risk assessments. We describe a counterfeit Viagra 100mg blister pack and a box of an instant coffee both containing dose units with and without an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). We also describe a purportedly herbal slimming product with capsules that mutually differed in API and impurities. The adulterated dietary supplements contained sibutramine, benzyl-sibutramine, N-desmethyl-sibutramine (DMS), N,N-didesmethyl-sibutramine (DDMS) and several other related impurities. Counterfeit medicines and adulterated dietary supplements are a health risk because their quality is unreliable. Health risks are even greater when such unreliability extends to fundamental differences between dose units in one package. Because dose-to-dose variability for these products is unpredictable, the confidence interval of a sample size is unknown. Consequently, the analyses of a selection of dose units may not be representative for the package. In the worst case, counterfeit or unauthorised medicines are not recognised as such or a health risk is not identified. In order to reduce erroneous results particular care should be taken when analysing a composite of dose units, when finding no API in a dietary supplement and when finding conformity in a suspect counterfeit medicine. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Bioinformatics analysis to assess potential risks of allergenicity and toxicity of HRAP and PFLP proteins in genetically modified bananas resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease.

    PubMed

    Jin, Yuan; Goodman, Richard E; Tetteh, Afua O; Lu, Mei; Tripathi, Leena

    2017-11-01

    Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) disease threatens banana production and food security throughout East Africa. Natural resistance is lacking among common cultivars. Genetically modified (GM) bananas resistant to BXW disease were developed by inserting the hypersensitive response-assisting protein (Hrap) or/and the plant ferredoxin-like protein (Pflp) gene(s) from sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum). Several of these GM banana events showed 100% resistance to BXW disease under field conditions in Uganda. The current study evaluated the potential allergenicity and toxicity of the expressed proteins HRAP and PFLP based on evaluation of published information on the history of safe use of the natural source of the proteins as well as established bioinformatics sequence comparison methods to known allergens (www.AllergenOnline.org and NCBI Protein) and toxins (NCBI Protein). The results did not identify potential risks of allergy and toxicity to either HRAP or PFLP proteins expressed in the GM bananas that might suggest potential health risks to humans. We recognize that additional tests including stability of these proteins in pepsin assay, nutrient analysis and possibly an acute rodent toxicity assay may be required by national regulatory authorities. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

    2005-01-01

    A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

  13. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  14. Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

    2016-01-01

    Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

  15. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    PubMed

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  16. The potential benefit of the placebo effect in sham-controlled trials: implications for risk-benefit assessments and informed consent

    PubMed Central

    Brim, Remy L; Miller, Franklin G

    2013-01-01

    There has been considerable debate surrounding the ethics of sham-controlled trials of procedures and interventions. Critics argue that these trials are unethical because participants assigned to the control group have no prospect of benefit from the trial, yet they are exposed to all the risks of the sham intervention. However, the placebo effect associated with sham procedures can often be substantial and has been well documented in the scientific literature. We argue that, in light of the scientific evidence supporting the benefits of sham interventions for pain and Parkinson's disease that stem from the placebo effect, these sham-controlled trials should be considered as offering potential direct benefit to participants. If scientific evidence demonstrates the positive effect of placebo from sham interventions on other conditions, sham-controlled trials of interventions for the treatment of these conditions should be considered to have prospects of benefit as well. This potential benefit should be taken into account by research ethics committees in risk-benefit analyses, and be included in informed consent documents. PMID:23239742

  17. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    SciTech Connect

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  18. RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE DYE AND PIGMENT ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This risk assessment calculates the maximum loadings of constituents found in dyes and pigment industries waste streams which can be disposed in different types of waste management units without causing health benchmarks to be exceeded at plausible receptor locations. The assessment focuses on potential risks from volatilization and leaching to groundwater of constituents disposed in surface impoundments and landfills with either clay liners or composite liners. This product will be used by EPA decision makers to assist in determining whether certain waste streams generated by the dyes and pigments industries should be designated as hazardous.

  19. Assessment of potential risk factors for new onset disabling low back pain in Japanese workers: findings from the CUPID (cultural and psychosocial influences on disability) study.

    PubMed

    Kawaguchi, Mika; Matsudaira, Ko; Sawada, Takayuki; Koga, Tadashi; Ishizuka, Akiko; Isomura, Tatsuya; Coggon, David

    2017-08-02

    Most studies of risk factors for new low back pain (LBP) have been conducted in Western populations, but because of cultural and environmental differences, the impact of causal factors may not be the same in other countries. We used longitudinal data from the Cultural and Psychosocial Influences on Disability (CUPID) study to assess risk factors for new onset of disabling LBP among Japanese workers. Data came from a 1-year prospective follow-up of nurses, office workers, sales/marketing personnel, and transportation workers, initially aged 20-59 years, who were employed in or near Tokyo. A baseline questionnaire included items on past history of LBP, personal characteristics, ergonomic work demands, and work-related psychosocial factors. Further information about LBP was collected at follow-up. Analysis was restricted to participants who had been free from LBP during the 12 months before baseline. Logistic regression was used to assess baseline risk factors for new onset of disabling LBP (i.e. LBP that had interfered with work) during the 12 months of follow-up. Among 955 participants free from LBP during the 12 months before baseline, 58 (6.1%) reported a new episode of disabling LBP during the 12-month follow-up period. After mutual adjustment in a multivariate logistic regression analysis, which included the four factors that showed associations individually (p < 0.1) in analyses adjusted only for gender and age, the highest odds ratio (OR) was for past history of LBP (2.8, 95% [confidence interval {CI}]: 1.6-4.9), followed by working ≥60 h per week (1.8, 95% CI: 1.0-3.5) and lifting weights ≥25 kg by hand (1.6, 95% CI: 0.9-3.0). When past history of LBP was excluded from the model, ORs for the remaining risk factors were virtually unchanged. Our findings suggest that among Japanese workers, as elsewhere, past history of LBP is a major risk factor for the development of new episodes of disabling back pain. They give limited support to the association

  20. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  1. Ecological Risk Assessment Process under the Endangered Species Act

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document provides an overview of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ecological risk assessment process for the evaluation of potential risk to endangered and threatened (listed) species from exposure to pesticides.

  2. Pressure mapping to assess seated pressure distributions and the potential risk for skin ulceration in a population of sledge hockey players and control subjects.

    PubMed

    Berthold, Justin; Dicianno, Brad E; Cooper, Rory A

    2013-09-01

    Ice sledge (or sled) hockey is a fast-paced sport that enables individuals with physical disabilities to play ice hockey. As the attraction to the sport continues to rise, the need for developing better equipment and installing preventative measures for injury will become increasingly important. One such injury includes skin pressure ulceration. A total of 26 subjects including active controls and those with spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis, limb amputation and traumatic brain injury were studied using a pressure mapping device at the 2012 National Disabled Veterans Winter Sports Clinic to determine the risk for skin pressure ulceration and the impact of cushioning and knee angle positioning on seated pressure distributions. Sledge hockey athletes may be at increased risk for skin pressure ulceration based on seated pressure distribution data. This experiment failed to demonstrate a benefit for specialty cushioning in either group. Interestingly, knee angle positioning, particularly, knee extension significantly lowered the average seated pressures. When considering the risk for skin pressure ulceration, knee angle positioning is of particular clinical importance. More research is warranted, specifically targeting novel cushion and sledge designs and larger groups of individuals with sensory loss and severe spinal deformities. Implications for Rehabilitation Ice sledge (or sled) hockey is a fast-paced and growing adaptive sport played at the Paralympic level. Rehabilitation professionals should consider the potential for skin ulceration in this population of athletes. The effects of cushioning used in the sledge design warrants further investigation. Knee angle positioning; particularly, knee extension significantly lowers seated pressures and may reduce the potential for skin ulceration.

  3. Psychosocial intervention in at-risk adolescents: using event-related potentials to assess changes in decision making and feedback processing.

    PubMed

    Pincham, H L; Bryce, D; Fonagy, P; Fearon, R M Pasco

    2018-05-25

    Decision making and feedback processing are two important cognitive processes that are impacted by social context, particularly during adolescence. The current study examined whether a psychosocial intervention could improve psychological wellbeing in at-risk adolescent boys, thereby improving their decision making and feedback processing skills. Two groups of at-risk adolescents were compared: those who were relatively new to a psychosocial intervention, and those who had engaged over a longer time period. Electroencephalography was recorded while the young people participated in a modified version of the Taylor Aggression Paradigm. The late positive potential (LPP) was measured during the decision phase of the task (where participants selected punishments for their opponents). The feedback-related negativity (FRN) and P3 components were measured during the task's outcome phase (where participants received 'win' or 'lose' feedback). Adolescents who were new to the intervention (the minimal-intervention group) were harsher in their punishment selections than those who had been engaged in the program for much longer. The minimal-intervention group also showed an enhanced LPP during the decision phase of the task, which may be indicative of immature decision making in that group. Analysis of the FRN and P3 amplitudes revealed that the minimal-intervention group was physiologically hypo-sensitive to feedback, compared with the extended-intervention group. Overall, these findings suggest that long-term community-based psychosocial intervention programs are beneficial for at-risk adolescents, and that event-related potentials can be employed as biomarkers of therapeutic change. However, because participants were not randomly allocated to treatment groups, alternative explanations cannot be excluded until further randomized controlled trials are undertaken.

  4. ASSESSING WATERBORNE RISKS: AN INTRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Information in this article can help readers evaluate the results of epidemiologic studies of

    waterborne disease risks. It is important that readers understand the various epidemiologic study

    designs, their strengths and limitations, and potential biases. Terminolog...

  5. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  6. Assessing the bioaccumulation potential of ionizable organic ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The objective of the present study is to review current knowledge regarding the bioaccumulation potential of IOCs, with a focus on the availability of empirical data for fish. Aspects of the bioaccumulation potential of IOCs in fish that can be characterized relatively well include the pH-dependence of gill uptake and elimination, uptake in the gut, and sorption to phospholipids (membrane-water partitioning). Key challenges include the lack of empirical data for biotransformation and binding in plasma. Fish possess a diverse array of proteins which may transport IOCs across cell membranes. Except in a few cases, however, the significance of this transport for uptake and accumulation of environmental contaminants is unknown. Two case studies are presented. The first describes modeled effects of pH and biotransformation on bioconcentration of organic acids and bases, while the second employs an updated model to investigate factors responsible for accumulation of perfluoroalkylated acids (PFAA). The PFAA case study is notable insofar as it illustrates the likely importance of membrane transporters in the kidney and highlights the potential value of read across approaches. Recognizing the current need to perform bioaccumulation hazard assessments and ecological and exposure risk assessment for IOCs, we provide a tiered strategy that progresses (as needed) from conservative assumptions (models and associated data) to more sophisticated models requiring chemical-speci

  7. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    SciTech Connect

    Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

  8. Probabilistic risk model to assess the potential for resistance selection following the use of anti-microbial medicated feed in pigs.

    PubMed

    Filippitzi, Maria Eleni; Chantziaras, Ilias; Devreese, Mathias; Dewulf, Jeroen

    2018-05-30

    The cross-contamination of non-medicated feed with residues of anti-microbials (AM) causes a public and animal health concern associated with the potential for selection and dissemination of resistance. To analyse the associated risks, a probabilistic model was built using @Risk® (Palisade Corporation®) to show the potential extent of the effect of cross-contaminated pig feed on resistance selection. The results of the model include estimations of the proportion of pigs per production stage with residues of doxycycline, chlortetracycline, sulfadiazine and trimethoprim in their intestinal contents, as a result of exposure to cross-contaminated feed with different carry-over levels, in Belgium. By using a semi-quantitative approach, these estimations were combined with experimental data on AM concentrations associated with potential for resistance-selection pressure. Based on this model, it is estimated that 7.76% (min = 1.67; max = 36.94) of sows, 4.23% (min = 1.01%; max = 18.78%) of piglets and 2.8% (min = 0.51%; max = 14.9%) of fatteners in Belgium have residues of doxycycline in their intestinal tract due to consumption of feed with at least 1% carry-over. These values were estimated to be almost triple for sulfadiazine, but substantially lower for chlortetracycline and trimethoprim. Doxycycline concentrations as low as 1 mg/L (corresponding to consumed feed with at least 1% carry-over) can select for resistant porcine commensal Escherichia coli in vitro and in vivo. Conclusions on this risk could not be drawn for other AM at this stage, due to the lack of data on concentrations associated with resistance development. However, since the possibility of resistance mechanisms (e.g. co-selection) occurring cannot be excluded, the results of this model highlight that the use of AM medicated feed should be minimised where possible. In case of medicated feed production, good practice should be followed thoroughly at all levels of production, distribution

  9. Elemental concentration and potential ecological risk assessment of reef associated surface sediments of Appa Island, Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve, Southeast coast of India.

    PubMed

    Saravanan, P; Krishnakumar, S; Silva, Judith D; Pradhap, D; Vidyasakar, A; Radhakrishnan, K; Godson, Prince S; Arumugam, K; Magesh, N S

    2018-03-01

    Thirty three surface sediments were collected for the present study to assess the elemental concentration and its associated ecological risk in the reef associated surface sediments, Appa Island, Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve, South east coast of India. The distribution of calcium carbonate in the reef sediments is controlled by coral debris and shell fragments whereas the Organic matter (OM) content are chiefly derived from mangroves and sea grasses. The circulation of trace elements and Fe, Mn are controlled by the fluvial process and re-suspended sediments. The concentration of Pb was primarily controlled by migration of pollutants through long shore sediment transport process. The main source of Pb in the study area is from coal incinerating power plants and coal handling operations from harbors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Dental fluorosis in populations from Chiang Mai, Thailand with different fluoride exposures – Paper 1: assessing fluorosis risk, predictors of fluorosis and the potential role of food preparation

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background To determine the severity of dental fluorosis in selected populations in Chiang Mai, Thailand with different exposures to fluoride and to explore possible risk indicators for dental fluorosis. Methods Subjects were male and female lifetime residents aged 8–13 years. For each child the fluoride content of drinking and cooking water samples were assessed. Digital images were taken of the maxillary central incisors for later blind scoring for TF index (10% repeat scores). Interview data explored previous cooking and drinking water use, exposure to fluoride, infant feeding patterns and oral hygiene practices. Results Data from 560 subjects were available for analysis (298 M, 262 F). A weighted kappa of 0.80 was obtained for repeat photographic scores. The prevalence of fluorosis (TF 3+) for subjects consuming drinking and cooking water with a fluoride concentration of <0.9 ppm was 10.2%. For subjects consuming drinking and cooking water >0.9 ppm F the prevalence of fluorosis (TF 3+) rose to 37.3%. Drinking and cooking water at age 3, water used for infant formula and water used for preparing infant food all demonstrated an increase in fluorosis severity with increase in water fluoride level (p < 0.001). The probability estimate for the presentation of aesthetically significant fluorosis was 0.53 for exposure to high fluoride drinking (≥0.9 ppm) and cooking water (≥1.6 ppm). Conclusions The consumption of drinking water with fluoride content >0.9 ppm and use of cooking water with fluoride content >1.6 ppm were associated with an increased risk of aesthetically significant dental fluorosis. Fluoride levels in the current drinking and cooking water sources were strongly correlated with fluorosis severity. Further work is needed to explore fluorosis risk in relation to total fluoride intake from all sources including food preparation. PMID:22720834

  11. Dental fluorosis in populations from Chiang Mai, Thailand with different fluoride exposures - paper 1: assessing fluorosis risk, predictors of fluorosis and the potential role of food preparation.

    PubMed

    McGrady, Michael G; Ellwood, Roger P; Srisilapanan, Patcharawan; Korwanich, Narumanas; Worthington, Helen V; Pretty, Iain A

    2012-06-21

    To determine the severity of dental fluorosis in selected populations in Chiang Mai, Thailand with different exposures to fluoride and to explore possible risk indicators for dental fluorosis. Subjects were male and female lifetime residents aged 8-13 years. For each child the fluoride content of drinking and cooking water samples were assessed. Digital images were taken of the maxillary central incisors for later blind scoring for TF index (10% repeat scores). Interview data explored previous cooking and drinking water use, exposure to fluoride, infant feeding patterns and oral hygiene practices. Data from 560 subjects were available for analysis (298 M, 262 F). A weighted kappa of 0.80 was obtained for repeat photographic scores. The prevalence of fluorosis (TF 3+) for subjects consuming drinking and cooking water with a fluoride concentration of <0.9 ppm was 10.2%. For subjects consuming drinking and cooking water >0.9 ppm F the prevalence of fluorosis (TF 3+) rose to 37.3%. Drinking and cooking water at age 3, water used for infant formula and water used for preparing infant food all demonstrated an increase in fluorosis severity with increase in water fluoride level (p < 0.001). The probability estimate for the presentation of aesthetically significant fluorosis was 0.53 for exposure to high fluoride drinking (≥0.9 ppm) and cooking water (≥1.6 ppm). The consumption of drinking water with fluoride content >0.9 ppm and use of cooking water with fluoride content >1.6 ppm were associated with an increased risk of aesthetically significant dental fluorosis. Fluoride levels in the current drinking and cooking water sources were strongly correlated with fluorosis severity. Further work is needed to explore fluorosis risk in relation to total fluoride intake from all sources including food preparation.

  12. Photosynthesis and oxidative stress in the restinga plant species Eugenia uniflora L. exposed to simulated acid rain and iron ore dust deposition: potential use in environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Neves, Natália Rust; Oliva, Marco Antonio; da Cruz Centeno, Danilo; Costa, Alan Carlos; Ribas, Rogério Ferreira; Pereira, Eduardo Gusmão

    2009-06-01

    The Brazilian sandy coastal plain named restinga is frequently subjected to particulate and gaseous emissions from iron ore factories. These gases may come into contact with atmospheric moisture and produce acid rain. The effects of the acid rain on vegetation, combined with iron excess in the soil, can lead to the disappearance of sensitive species and decrease restinga biodiversity. The effects of iron ore dust deposition and simulated acid rain on photosynthesis and on antioxidant enzymes were investigated in Eugenia uniflora, a representative shrub species of the restinga. This study aimed to determine the possible utility of this species in environmental risk assessment. After the application of iron ore dust as iron solid particulate matter (SPM(Fe)) and simulated acid rain (pH 3.1), the 18-month old plants displayed brown spots and necrosis, typical symptoms of iron toxicity and injuries caused by acid rain, respectively. The acidity of the rain intensified leaf iron accumulation, which reached phytotoxic levels, mainly in plants exposed to iron ore dust. These plants showed the lowest values for net photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, transpiration, chlorophyll a content and electron transport rate through photosystem II (PSII). Catalase and superoxide dismutase activities were decreased by simulated acid rain. Peroxidase activity and membrane injury increased following exposure to acid rain and simultaneous SPM(Fe) application. Eugenia uniflora exhibited impaired photosynthetic and antioxidative metabolism in response to combined iron and acid rain stresses. This species could become a valuable tool in environmental risk assessment in restinga areas near iron ore pelletizing factories. Non-invasive evaluations of visual injuries, photosynthesis and chlorophyll a fluorescence, as well as invasive biochemical analysis could be used as markers.

  13. Editor's Highlight: Application of Gene Set Enrichment Analysis for Identification of Chemically Induced, Biologically Relevant Transcriptomic Networks and Potential Utilization in Human Health Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Dean, Jeffry L; Zhao, Q Jay; Lambert, Jason C; Hawkins, Belinda S; Thomas, Russell S; Wesselkamper, Scott C

    2017-05-01

    The rate of new chemical development in commerce combined with a paucity of toxicity data for legacy chemicals presents a unique challenge for human health risk assessment. There is a clear need to develop new technologies and incorporate novel data streams to more efficiently inform derivation of toxicity values. One avenue of exploitation lies in the field of transcriptomics and the application of gene expression analysis to characterize biological responses to chemical exposures. In this context, gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was employed to evaluate tissue-specific, dose-response gene expression data generated following exposure to multiple chemicals for various durations. Patterns of transcriptional enrichment were evident across time and with increasing dose, and coordinated enrichment plausibly linked to the etiology of the biological responses was observed. GSEA was able to capture both transient and sustained transcriptional enrichment events facilitating differentiation between adaptive versus longer term molecular responses. When combined with benchmark dose (BMD) modeling of gene expression data from key drivers of biological enrichment, GSEA facilitated characterization of dose ranges required for enrichment of biologically relevant molecular signaling pathways, and promoted comparison of the activation dose ranges required for individual pathways. Median transcriptional BMD values were calculated for the most sensitive enriched pathway as well as the overall median BMD value for key gene members of significantly enriched pathways, and both were observed to be good estimates of the most sensitive apical endpoint BMD value. Together, these efforts support the application of GSEA to qualitative and quantitative human health risk assessment. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  14. Spatial-temporal distribution and potential ecological risk assessment of nonylphenol and octylphenol in riverine outlets of Pearl River Delta, China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ru; Yin, Pinghe; Zhao, Ling; Yu, Qiming; Hong, Aihua; Duan, Shunshan

    2014-11-01

    The aquatic environments of the Pearl River Delta in Southern China are subjected to contamination with various industrial chemicals from local industries. In this paper, the occurrence, seasonal variation and spatial distribution of alkylphenol octylphenol (OP) and nonylphenol (NP) in river surface water and sediments in the runoff outlets of the Pearl River Delta were investigated. NP and OP were detected in all water and sediment samples and their mean concentrations in surface water during the dry season ranged from 810 to 3366 ng/L and 85.5 to 581 ng/L, respectively, and those in sediments ranged from 14.2 to 95.2 ng/g dw and 0.4 to 3.0 ng/g dw, respectively. In surface water, much higher concentrations were detected in the dry season than those in the wet season. In sediments, the concentrations in the dry season were also mostly higher. High concentrations of NP and OP were found in Humen outlet, likely due to high levels of domestic and industrial wastewater discharges. An ecological risk assessment with the use of hazard quotient (HQ) was also carried out and the HQ values ranged from 3.6×10(-5) to 35 and 64% of samples gave a HQ>1, indicating that the current levels of NP and OP pose a significant risk to the relevant aquatic organisms in the region. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks

    Treesearch

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon

    2017-01-01

    Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

  16. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  17. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    PubMed

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  18. Assessing potential sustainable wood yield

    Treesearch

    Robert F. Powers

    2001-01-01

    Society is making unprecedented demands on world forests to produce and sustain many values. Chief among them is wood supply, and concerns are rising globally about the ability of forests to meet increasing needs. Assessing this is not easy. It requires a basic understanding of the principles governing forest productivity: how wood yield varies with tree and stand...

  19. Liquefaction potential index: Field assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toprak, S.; Holzer, T.L.

    2003-01-01

    Cone penetration test (CPT) soundings at historic liquefaction sites in California were used to evaluate the predictive capability of the liquefaction potential index (LPI), which was defined by Iwasaki et al. in 1978. LPI combines depth, thickness, and factor of safety of liquefiable material inferred from a CPT sounding into a single parameter. LPI data from the Monterey Bay region indicate that the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction is 58 and 93%, respectively, when LPI equals or exceeds 5 and 15. LPI values also generally correlate with surface effects of liquefaction: Decreasing from a median of 12 for soundings in lateral spreads to 0 for soundings where no surface effects were reported. The index is particularly promising for probabilistic liquefaction hazard mapping where it may be a useful parameter for characterizing the liquefaction potential of geologic units.

  20. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    PubMed

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 2

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: different aspects of risk perception (perceived risk, media triggers, the psychometric paradigm, fright factors and cultural determinants of risk perception) are described. The risk profile elements are illustrated in the manuscript: hazard-food commodity combination(s) of concern; description of the public health problem; food production, processing, distribution and consumption; needs and questions for the risk assessors; available information and major knowledge gaps and other risk profile elements. PMID:27800443

  2. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  3. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    SciTech Connect

    Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

    1997-08-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

  4. Accumulation of Heavy Metals in Tea Leaves and Potential Health Risk Assessment: A Case Study from Puan County, Guizhou Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Ruidong; Chen, Rong; Peng, Yishu; Wen, Xuefeng; Gao, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This study features a survey of the concentrations of aluminum (Al) and heavy metals (Mn, Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Zn) in tea leaves and the corresponding cultivation soils (0–30 cm), carried out in Puan County (Guizhou Province, China). The average concentrations of Al, Mn, Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Zn in the soil were 106 × 103, 214, 20.9, 0.09, 0.12, 17.5, 121, 27.8, 131.2, and 64 mg·kg−1, respectively. The heavy metals’ pollution indexes in the soil can be ranked as follows: Cu > Cr > Hg > As > Ni > Zn > Pb > Mn > Cd. The soil was moderately polluted by Cu because of the high geochemical background value of Cu in the area. The potential environment risk index (RI) showed that 7.69% out of the total sample sites were within the moderate level. Moreover, the ranges of Al, Mn, Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Zn concentrations in young tea leaves were 250–660, 194–1130, 0.107–0.400, 0.012–0.092, 0.014–0.085, 0.073–0.456, 0.33–1.26, 6.33–14.90, 14.90–26.10, and 35.8–50.3 mg·kg−1, respectively. While in mature tea leaves, they were 4300–10,400, 536–4610, 0.560–1.265, 0.040–0.087, 0.043–0.089, 0.189–0.453, 0.69–2.91, 3.43–14.20, 6.17–16.25, and 9.1–20.0 mg·kg−1, respectively. Furthermore, the concentrations of Pb, Cu, As, Hg, Cd, and Cr in young tea leaves and mature tea leaves were all lower than the standard limit values (5.0, 30, 2.0, 0.3, 1.0, and 5.0 mg·kg−1 for Pb, Cu, As, Hg, Cd, and Cr, respectively) in China. Besides, the accumulation ability of tea leaves to Mn was the strongest, and the average bioconcentration factor (BCF) of Mn in mature tea leaves was 12.5. In addition, the average target hazard quotients (THQ) were all less than one for the young tea leaves and the average aggregate risk hazard index (HI) to adults was 0.272, indicating that there was not a potential health risk for adults through the consumption of the infusions brewed by young tea leaves. However, for mature tea

  5. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

    2013-01-01

    Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

  6. Is health risk assessment unethical

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, B.L.

    For persons who have followed the environmental movement in the US and in other countries, it comes as no revelation that the general public has been, and remains, quite concerned about environmental hazards. This concern has in turn led to national and local legislation that is intended to protect the environment and public health. In a parallel way, transnational public concerns have fostered international agreements on controlling such environmental hazards as shipments of hazardous wastes and ocean pollution. Over time, as governments have attempted to come to grips with controlling various environmental hazards, the development and use of health riskmore » assessment has become a well-favored practice by government and some private sector agencies. Because health risk assessment is used to ultimately manage environmental hazards that impact the well-being of people, it seems timely to raise the questions of to what extent are ethical considerations incorporated into health risk assessments and risk management actions.« less

  7. Risk assessment, cross-resistance potential, and biochemical mechanism of resistance to emamectin benzoate in a field strain of house fly (Musca domestica Linnaeus).

    PubMed

    Khan, Hafiz Azhar Ali; Akram, Waseem; Khan, Tiyyabah; Haider, Muhammad Saleem; Iqbal, Naeem; Zubair, Muhammad

    2016-05-01

    Reduced sensitivity to insecticides in insect pests often results in control failures and increases in the dose and frequency of applications, ultimately polluting the environment. Reduced sensitivity to emamectin benzoate, a broad-spectrum agrochemical belonging to the avermectin group of pesticides, was reported in house flies (Musca domestica L.) collected from Punjab, Pakistan, in 2013. The aim of the present study was to investigate the risk for resistance development, biochemical mechanism, and cross-resistance potential to other insecticides in an emamectin benzoate selected (EB-SEL) strain of house flies. A field-collected strain showing reduced sensitivity to emamectin was re-selected in the laboratory for five consecutive generations and compared with a laboratory susceptible (Lab-Susceptible) reference strain, using bioassays. The field strain showed rapid development of resistance to emamectin (resistance ratio (RR) increased from 35.15 to 149.26-fold) as a result of selection experiments; however, resistance declined when the selection pressure uplifted. The EB-SEL strain showed reduction in resistance to abamectin, indoxacarb, and thiamethoxam. The results of synergism experiments using piperonyl butoxide (PBO) and S,S,S-tributylphosphorotrithioate (DEF) enzyme inhibitors and biochemical analyses revealed that the metabolic resistance mechanism was not responsible in developing emamectin resistance in the EB-SEL strain. In conclusion, the risk for the rapid development of emamectin resistance under continuous selection pressure suggests using a multifaceted integrated pest management approach for house flies. Moreover, the instable nature of emamectin resistance in the EB-SEL strain and lack of cross-resistance to other insecticides provide windows for the rotational use of insecticides with different modes of action. This will ultimately reduce emamectin selection pressure and help improving management programs for house flies without polluting the

  8. Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

  9. Assessing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Models (BOSC CSS meeting)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In vitro assays are increasingly being used in risk assessments Uncertainty in assays leads to uncertainty in models used for risk assessments. This poster assesses uncertainty in the ER and AR models.

  10. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

    PubMed

    Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

    2016-04-01

    WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

  12. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  13. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  14. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  15. Assessment of microcystin distribution and biomagnification in tissues of aquatic food web compartments from a shallow lake and evaluation of potential risks to public health.

    PubMed

    Papadimitriou, Theodoti; Kagalou, Ifigenia; Stalikas, Constantinos; Pilidis, Georgios; Leonardos, Ioannis D

    2012-05-01

    The objectives of this study were: (1) to examine the distribution and bioaccumulation of microcystins in the main components of the food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, crayfish, shrimp, mussel, snail, fish, frog) of Lake Pamvotis (NW Greece), (2) to investigate the possibility of microcystin biomagnification and (3) to evaluate the potential threat of the contaminated aquatic organisms to human health. Significant microcystin concentrations were detected in all the aquatic organisms during two different periods, with the higher concentrations observed in phytoplankton and the lower in fish species and frogs. This is the first study reporting microcystin accumulation in the body of the freshwater shrimp Atyaephyra desmsaresti, in the brain of the fish species common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and in the skin of the frog Rana epirotica. Although there was no evidence for microcystin biomagnification, the fact that microcystins were found in lake water and in the tissues of aquatic organisms, suggests that serious risks to animal and public health are possible to occur. In addition, it is likely to be unsafe to consume aquatic species harvested in Lake Pamvotis due to the high-concentrations of accumulated microcystins.

  16. Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.

    PubMed

    Lussi, Adrian; Hellwig, Elmar

    2014-01-01

    A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    McClellan, R O

    1994-12-01

    This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks.

  18. [Online gaming. Potential risk and prevention programs].

    PubMed

    Malischnig, Doris

    2014-12-01

    Online gaming is more and more common and increasingly accessible. Due to a lack of social control the participation could be a potential risk for certain customers. The given article focuses on prevention measures that are provided by the Austrian online gaming operator, the Austrian Lotteries, provider of the online gaming platform win2day, in the light of the specifics of Internet gaming in order to avoid problems with gaming.

  19. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    PubMed

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  20. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  1. Risk Assessment Terminology: Risk Communication Part 1

    PubMed Central

    Bentley, Stefano; Giacometti, Federica; Piva, Silvia; Serraino, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed. PMID:27800435

  2. Improving Communication About Potentially Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, R. E. T.; Stern, N. H.

    2014-12-01

    Scientific assessments of future climate change tend to focus on central estimates and may understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have extremely severe consequences. This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which few data and information exist. The misinterpretation of such scientific assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high emissions scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails of lower emissions scenarios still contain very serious risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of damage caused by climate change. So how do we avoid these shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of climate change? The scientific assessments of climate change differ in significant ways from the formal risk assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a 'good practice' approach to the identification, assessment and communication of potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from sectors such as civil engineering, national security and insurance. We illustrate how this 'good practice' approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risks we consider include the possibility of 'extreme' rises in temperature and sea level lying outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility of significant releases of methane from the thawing of permafrost. Using these illustrations, we examine how scientific researchers can improve their communication about climate change to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of

  3. GENOTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT: A PROPOSED CLASSIFICATION STRATEGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent advances in genetic toxicity (mutagenicity) testing methods and in approaches to performing risk assessment are prompting a renewed effort to harmonize genotoxicity risk assessment across the world. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first published Guidelines fo...

  4. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  5. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.

    2017-01-01

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395

  6. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  7. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    PubMed

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  9. 9th International Symposium on the Biosafety of Genetically Modified Organisms. Session II: Identifying and defining hazards and potential consequences I: Concepts for problem formulation and non-target risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bigler, Franz

    2006-01-01

    The scientific organizers of the symposium put much emphasis on the identification and definition of hazard and the potential consequences thereof and three full sessions with a total of 13 presentations encompassing a wide range of related themes were planned for this topic. Unfortunately, one talk had to be cancelled because of illness of the speaker (BM Khadi, India). Some presentations covered conceptual approaches for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of GM plants (problem formulation in the risk assessment framework, familiarity approach, tiered and methodological frameworks, non-target risk assessment) and the use of models in assessing invasiveness and weediness of GM plants. Other presentations highlighted the lessons learned for future ERA from case studies and commercialized GM crops, and from monitoring of unintended releases to the environment. When the moderators of the three sessions came together after the presentations to align their summaries, there was an obvious need to restructure the 12 presentations in a way that allowed for a consistent summarizing discussion. The following new organization of the 12 talks was chosen: (1) Concepts for problem formulation and non-target risk assessment, (2) Modeling as a tool for predicting invasiveness of GM plants, (3) Case-studies of ERA of large-scale release, (4) Lessons learned for ERA from a commercialized GM plant, (5) Monitoring of unintended release of Bt maize in Mexico. The new thematic structure facilitates a more in-depth discussion of the presentations related to a specific topic, and the conclusions to be drawn are thus more consistent. Each moderator agreed to take responsibility for summarizing one or more themes and to prepare the respective report.

  10. Assessing the potential for racial bias in hair analysis for cocaine: examining the relative risk of positive outcomes when comparing urine samples to hair samples.

    PubMed

    Mieczkowski, Tom

    2011-03-20

    This article examines the conjecture that hair analysis, performed to detect cocaine use or exposure, is biased against African Americans. It does so by comparing the outcomes of 33,928 hair and 105,792 urine samples collected from both African American and white subjects. In making this comparison the analysis seeks to determine if there is a departure in rates of positive and negative outcomes when comparing the results of hair analysis for cocaine to the results from urinalysis for cocaine by racial group. It treats urine as an unbiased test. It compares both the relative ratios of positive outcomes when comparing the two groups and it calculates the relative risk of outcomes for each group for having positive or negative outcomes. The findings show that the ratios of each racial group are effectively same for hair and urine assays, and they also show that the relative risk and risk estimates for positive and negative outcomes are the same for both racial groups. Considering all samples, the cocaine positive risk estimate for the hair samples comparing the two racial groups is 3.28 and for urinalysis the risk estimate is 3.10 (Breslow-Day χ(2) .250, 1 df, p = 0.617) a non-significant difference in risk. For pre-employment samples, the cocaine positive risk estimate for the hair samples comparing the two racial groups is 3.10 and for urinalysis the risk estimate is 2.90 (Breslow-Day χ(2) .281, df = 1, p = 0.595), also a non-significant difference in risk. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Therapeutic radiation and the potential risk of second malignancies.

    PubMed

    Kamran, Sophia C; Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Ng, Andrea; Haas-Kogan, Daphne; Viswanathan, Akila N

    2016-06-15

    Radiation has long been associated with carcinogenesis. Nevertheless, it is an important part of multimodality therapy for many malignancies. It is critical to assess the risk of secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs) after radiation treatment. The authors reviewed the literature with a focus on radiation and associated SMNs for primary hematologic, breast, gynecologic, and pediatric tumors. Radiation appeared to increase the risk of SMN in all of these; however, this risk was found to be associated with age, hormonal influences, chemotherapy use, environmental influences, genetic predisposition, infection, and immunosuppression. The risk also appears to be altered with modern radiotherapy techniques. Practitioners of all specialties who treat cancer survivors in follow-up should be aware of this potential risk. Cancer 2016;122:1809-21. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

  12. Flood risk assessment of land pollution hotspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masi, Matteo; Arrighi, Chiara; Iannelli, Renato

    2017-04-01

    Among the risks caused by extreme events, the potential spread of pollutants stored in land hotspots due to floods is an aspect that has been rarely examined with a risk-based approach. In this contribution, an attempt to estimate pollution risks related to flood events of land pollution hotspots was carried out. Flood risk has been defined as the combination of river flood hazard, hotspots exposure and vulnerability to contamination of the area, i.e. the expected severity of the environmental impacts. The assessment was performed on a geographical basis, using geo-referenced open data, available from databases of land management institutions, authorities and agencies. The list of land pollution hotspots included landfills and other waste handling facilities (e.g., temporary storage, treatment and recycling sites), municipal wastewater treatment plants, liquid waste treatment facilities and contaminated sites. The assessment was carried out by combining geo-referenced data of pollution hotspots with flood hazard maps. We derived maps of land pollution risk based on geographical and geological properties and source characteristics available from environmental authorities. These included information about soil particle size, soil hydraulic conductivity, terrain slope, type of stored pollutants, the type of facility, capacity, size of the area, land use, etc. The analysis was carried out at catchment scale. The case study of the Arno river basin in Tuscany (central Italy) is presented.

  13. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    SciTech Connect

    Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

  14. MICROBIOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR LAND APPLICATION OF MUNICIPAL SLUDGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Each major option for the disposal/reuse of municipal sludges poses potential risks to human health or the environment because of the microbial contaminants in sludge. Therefore, risk assessment methodology appropriate for pathogen risk evaluation for land application and distrib...

  15. INTERPRETING SPONTANEOUS RENAL LESIONS IN SAFETY AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Interpreting Spontaneous Renal Lesions in Safety and Risk Assessment
    Douglas C. Wolf, D.V.M., Ph.D.

    Introduction

    Risk assessment is a process whereby the potential adverse health effects from exposure to a xenobiotic are predicted after evaluation of the availab...

  16. Trophoblast retrieval and isolation from the cervix: origins of cervical trophoblasts and their potential value for risk assessment of ongoing pregnancies.

    PubMed

    Moser, Gerit; Drewlo, Sascha; Huppertz, Berthold; Armant, D Randall

    2018-03-28

    invasive routes taken by EVT cells at the fetal-maternal interface that could displace them into the reproductive tract. Since the 1970s, investigators have attempted to recover trophoblast cells from the uterus or cervix for prenatal diagnostics. Trophoblast cells from Pap smears obtained at 5-20 weeks of gestation have been purified (>95% β-hCG positive) by immunomagnetic isolation with nanoparticles linked to anti-HLA-G (TRIC). The isolated cells contain the fetal genome, and have an EVT-like expression profile. Similar EVT-like cells appear in the lumen of uterine glands and can be observed entering the uterine cavity along the margins of the placenta, suggesting that they are the primary source of cervical trophoblast cells. Cells isolated by TRIC can be used to accurately genotype the embryo/fetus by targeted next-generation sequencing. Biomarker protein expression quantified in cervical trophoblast cells after TRIC correlates with subsequent pregnancy loss, pre-eclampsia and fetal growth restriction. A key remaining question is the degree to which EVT cells in the cervix might differ from those in the basal plate and placental bed. TRIC could one day provide a method of risk assessment for maternal and fetal disease, and reveal molecular pathways disrupted during the first trimester in EVT cells associated with placental maldevelopment. As perinatal interventions emerge for pregnancy disorders and inherited congenital disorders, TRIC could provide a key diagnostic tool for personalized precision medicine in obstetrics.

  17. Monoamines and assessment of risks.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Hidehiko

    2012-12-01

    Over the past decade, neuroeconomics studies utilizing neurophysiology methods (fMRI or EEG) have flourished, revealing the neural basis of 'boundedly rational' or 'irrational' decision-making that violates normative theory. The next question is how modulatory neurotransmission is involved in these central processes. Here I focused on recent efforts to understand how central monoamine transmission is related to nonlinear probability weighting and loss aversion, central features of prospect theory, which is a leading alternative to normative theory for decision-making under risk. Circumstantial evidence suggests that dopamine tone might be related to distortion of subjective reward probability and noradrenaline and serotonin tone might influence aversive emotional reaction to potential loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessment of potential adjuvanticity of Cry proteins.

    PubMed

    Joshi, Saurabh S; Barnett, Brian; Doerrer, Nancy G; Glenn, Kevin; Herman, Rod A; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Hunst, Penny; Kough, John; Ladics, Gregory S; McClain, Scott; Papineni, Sabitha; Poulsen, Lars K; Rascle, Jean-Baptiste; Tao, Ai-Lin; van Ree, Ronald; Ward, Jason; Bowman, Christal C

    2016-08-01

    Genetically modified (GM) crops have achieved success in the marketplace and their benefits extend beyond the overall increase in harvest yields to include lowered use of insecticides and decreased carbon dioxide emissions. The most widely grown GM crops contain gene/s for targeted insect protection, herbicide tolerance, or both. Plant expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystal (Cry) insecticidal proteins have been the primary way to impart insect resistance in GM crops. Although deemed safe by regulatory agencies globally, previous studies have been the basis for discussions around the potential immuno-adjuvant effects of Cry proteins. These studies had limitations in study design. The studies used animal models with extremely high doses of Cry proteins, which when given using the ig route were co-administered with an adjuvant. Although the presumption exists that Cry proteins may have immunostimulatory activity and therefore an adjuvanticity risk, the evidence shows that Cry proteins are expressed at very low levels in GM crops and are unlikely to function as adjuvants. This conclusion is based on critical review of the published literature on the effects of immunomodulation by Cry proteins, the history of safe use of Cry proteins in foods, safety of the Bt donor organisms, and pre-market weight-of-evidence-based safety assessments for GM crops. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    MedlinePlus

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  20. EPA Peer Consultation Workshop on Cumulative Risk Assessment of Phthalates: Potential Options and Methods for Evaluating the Cumulative Hazard Associated with Six Selected Phthalates

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA held a 2-day workshop on December 8 and 9, 2010 at the Doubletree Hotel Washington DC-Crystal City in Arlington, Viriginia. The goal of this workshop was to evaulate methods of determining cumulative risk associated with exposure to mulitple phthalates for inclusion in the EP...

  1. Risk Assessment Document for Coke Oven MACT Residual Risk

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The residual risk analysis described in this report addresses four coke plants subject to the 1993coke oven MACT standards (40 CFR Part 63 Subpart L) and estimates potential risks due to HAPsemissions from facilities involved in coking operations.

  2. Biology, host specificity tests, and risk assessment of the sawfly Heteroperreyia hubrichi, a potential biological control agent of Schinus terebinthifolius in Hawaii

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Abstract. Heteroperreyia hubrichi Malaise (Hymenoptera: Pergidae), a foliage feeding sawfly of Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Sapindales: Anacardiaceae), was studied to assess its suitability as a classical biological control agent of this invasive weed in Hawaii. Nochoice host-specificity tests we...

  3. RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

  4. Tools to Assess Community-Based Cumulative Risk and Exposures

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multiple agents and stressors can interact in a given community to adversely affect human and ecological conditions. A cumulative risk assessment (CRA) analyzes, characterizes, and potentially quantifies the effects from multiple stressors, which include chemical agents (for exam...

  5. IMPROVING THE TMDL PROCESS USING WATERSHED RISK ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. This has many similarities tothe placed-based analuses that are undertaken to develop total maximum daily loads...

  6. Systematic review in chemical risk assessment - A chemical industry perspective.

    PubMed

    Pease, Camilla K; Gentry, Robinan P

    2016-01-01

    This commentary provides a perspective from the chemicals industry on the potential usefulness of systematic review approaches in chemical risk assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The SERGISAI procedure for seismic risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zonno, G.; Garcia-Fernandez, M.; Jimenez, M.J.; Menoni, S.; Meroni, F.; Petrini, V.

    The European project SERGISAI developed a computational tool where amethodology for seismic risk assessment at different geographical scales hasbeen implemented. Experts of various disciplines, including seismologists,engineers, planners, geologists, and computer scientists, co-operated in anactual multidisciplinary process to develop this tool. Standard proceduralcodes, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and Artificial Intelligence(AI) techniques compose the whole system, that will enable the end userto carry out a complete seismic risk assessment at three geographical scales:regional, sub-regional and local. At present, single codes or models thathave been incorporated are not new in general, but the modularity of theprototype, based on a user-friendly front-end, offers potential users thepossibility of updating or replacing any code or model if desired. Theproposed procedure is a first attempt to integrate tools, codes and methodsfor assessing expected earthquake damage, and it was mainly designedto become a useful support for civil defence and land use planning agencies.Risk factors have been treated in the most suitable way for each one, interms of level of detail, kind of parameters and units of measure.Identifying various geographical scales is not a mere question of dimension;since entities to be studied correspond to areas defined by administrativeand geographical borders. The procedure was applied in the following areas:Toscana in Italy, for the regional scale, the Garfagnana area in Toscana, forthe sub-regional scale, and a part of Barcelona city, Spain, for the localscale.

  8. Nanomaterials: certain aspects of application, risk assessment and risk communication.

    PubMed

    Laux, Peter; Tentschert, Jutta; Riebeling, Christian; Braeuning, Albert; Creutzenberg, Otto; Epp, Astrid; Fessard, Valérie; Haas, Karl-Heinz; Haase, Andrea; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Jakubowski, Norbert; Kearns, Peter; Lampen, Alfonso; Rauscher, Hubert; Schoonjans, Reinhilde; Störmer, Angela; Thielmann, Axel; Mühle, Uwe; Luch, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Development and market introduction of new nanomaterials trigger the need for an adequate risk assessment of such products alongside suitable risk communication measures. Current application of classical and new nanomaterials is analyzed in context of regulatory requirements and standardization for chemicals, food and consumer products. The challenges of nanomaterial characterization as the main bottleneck of risk assessment and regulation are presented. In some areas, e.g., quantification of nanomaterials within complex matrices, the establishment and adaptation of analytical techniques such as laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and others are potentially suited to meet the requirements. As an example, we here provide an approach for the reliable characterization of human exposure to nanomaterials resulting from food packaging. Furthermore, results of nanomaterial toxicity and ecotoxicity testing are discussed, with concluding key criteria such as solubility and fiber rigidity as important parameters to be considered in material development and regulation. Although an analysis of the public opinion has revealed a distinguished rating depending on the particular field of application, a rather positive perception of nanotechnology could be ascertained for the German public in general. An improvement of material characterization in both toxicological testing as well as end-product control was concluded as being the main obstacle to ensure not only safe use of materials, but also wide acceptance of this and any novel technology in the general public.

  9. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  10. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  11. Assessing glacial lake outburst flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kougkoulos, Ioannis; Cook, Simon; Jomelli, Vincent; Clarke, Leon; Symeonakis, Elias

    2017-04-01

    Glaciers across the world are thinning and receding in response to atmospheric warming. Glaciers tend to erode subglacial basins and deposit eroded materials around their margins as lateral-frontal terminal moraines. Recession into these basins and behind impounding moraines causes meltwater to pond as proglacial and supraglacial lakes. Consequently, there has been a general trend of increasing number and size of these lakes associated with glacier melting in many mountainous regions around the globe, in the last 30 years. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) then may occur where the glacial lake dam (ice, rock, moraine, or combination thereof) is breached, or overtopped, and thousands of people have lost their lives to such events in the last few decades, especially in the Andes and in the Himalaya. Given the ongoing and arguably increasing risk posed to downstream communities, and infrastructure, there has been a proliferation of GLOF studies, with many seeking to estimate GLOF hazard or risk in specific regions, or to identify 'potentially dangerous glacial lakes'. Given the increased scientific interest in GLOFs, it is timely to evaluate critically the ways in which GLOF risk has been assessed previously, and whether there are improvements that can be made to the ways in which risk assessment is achieved. We argue that, whilst existing GLOF hazard and risk assessments have been extremely valuable they often suffer from a number of key shortcomings that can be addressed by using different techniques as multi-criteria decision analysis and hydraulic modelling borrowed from disciplines like engineering, remote sensing and operations research.

  12. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Donald R.

    With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

  13. Potential economic impact assessment for cattle parasites in Mexico review

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Here, economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis. The main factors taken into consideration for this assessment included the total number of animals at risk, potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production or weight gain, and records of cond...

  14. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  15. Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

    PubMed

    Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

    1995-01-01

    This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care.

  16. Cyanotoxins in Inland Lakes of the United States: Occurrence and Potential Recreational Health Risks in the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007

    EPA Science Inventory

    A large nation-wide survey or cyanotoxlns (1161 lakes)in the United States (U.S.) was conducted dunng the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007. Cyanotoxin data were compared with cyanobacteria abundance- and chlorophyll-based World Health Organization (WHO) thresholds and mouse to...

  17. Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-08-01

    The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

  18. The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

    2011-08-01

    The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

  19. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  20. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Cancer.gov

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  1. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  2. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  3. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  4. The Potential Risks of Commonly Prescribed Antipsychotics

    PubMed Central

    Aneja, Alka; Rahman, Atiq; Megna, James; Freemont, Wanda; Shiplo, Mohammed; Nihilani, Nikil; Lee, Kathy

    2005-01-01

    Chlorpromazine, haloperidol, fluphenazine, clozapine, risperidone, quetiapine, olanzapine, ziprasidone, and aripiprazole are antipsychotics commonly used in psychiatric medicine. Approximately one third of pregnant women with psychotic symptoms use antipsychotics at least once. This review will discuss the effects of antipsychotic use during pregnancy and lactation on the fetus and infant. Although adequate and well-controlled studies have not been done in any one of these antipsychotic drugs, animal studies have revealed evidence of teratogenic or embryo/fetotoxic effects in all of them. Toxicities include skeletal malformations, central nervous system (CNS) defects, cleft palate, cardiac abnormalities, decreased fetal growth, and fetal death. For example, in pregnant women, congenital malformations and perinatal death have been reported with chlorpromazine use. Both chlorpromazine and fluphenazine in monotherapy have been shown to cause extrapyramidal symptoms and respiratory distress in infants born to mothers treated with these medications. Haloperidol use during pregnancy has been linked to severe limb reduction defects. Effects of antipsychotic use in lactating mothers are mostly unknown. However, the use of chlorpromazine has been reported to result in drowsiness and lethargy in breastfed infants. Additionally, clozapine has been reported to cause sedation, decreased suckling, restlessness, irritability, seizures, and cardiovascular instability of infants were also reported with clozapine use in lactating mother. Use of antipsychotic drugs by pregnant and lactating mother may only be justified if the potential benefit outweighs the potential risk to the fetus. PMID:21152171

  5. Cannabinoids and Schizophrenia: Risks and Therapeutic Potential.

    PubMed

    Manseau, Marc W; Goff, Donald C

    2015-10-01

    A convergence of evidence shows that use of Cannabis sativa is associated with increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, including schizophrenia, and earlier age at which psychotic symptoms first manifest. Cannabis exposure during adolescence is most strongly associated with the onset of psychosis amongst those who are particularly vulnerable, such as those who have been exposed to child abuse and those with family histories of schizophrenia. Schizophrenia that develops after cannabis use may have a unique clinical phenotype, and several genetic polymorphisms may modulate the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis. The endocannabinoid system has been implicated in psychosis both related and unrelated to cannabis exposure, and studying this system holds potential to increase understanding of the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Anandamide signaling in the central nervous system may be particularly important. Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol in cannabis can cause symptoms of schizophrenia when acutely administered, and cannabidiol (CBD), another compound in cannabis, can counter many of these effects. CBD may have therapeutic potential for the treatment of psychosis following cannabis use, as well as schizophrenia, possibly with better tolerability than current antipsychotic treatments. CBD may also have anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective properties. Establishing the role of CBD and other CBD-based compounds in treating psychotic disorders will require further human research.

  6. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    PubMed

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  7. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Cancer.gov

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  8. Cumulative Assessment of Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  9. Pesticide Science and Assessing Pesticide Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  10. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  11. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment (ERA) and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997...

  12. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN RISK ASSESSMENT: WORKSHOP SUMMARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecological indicators can be defined as relatively simple measurements that relay scientific information about complex ecosystems. Such indicators are used to characterize risk in ecological risk assessment and to mark progress toward resource management goals. In late 1997 scien...

  13. [Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

    PubMed

    Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

    2016-08-20

    Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

  14. Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

  15. Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

  16. Trace Metals in Saharan Dust: The Use of in Vitro Bioaccessibility Extractions To Assess Potential Health Risks in a Dustier World: Chapter 3

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morman, Suzette A.; Garrison, Virginia H.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) is acknowledged as a risk factor for human morbidity and mortality. Epidemiology and toxicology studies have focused on anthropogenic sources of PM and few consider contributions produced by natural processes (geogenic), or PM produced from natural sources as a result of human activities (geoanthropogenic PM). The focus of this study was to elucidate relationships between human/ecosystem health and dusts produced by a system transitioning from a dominantly natural to a geoanthropogenic PM source. As part of a larger study investigating the relationship between atmospheric transportation of African dust, human health, and coral reef declines, we examined dust samples sourced in Mali, Africa, collected using high-volume samplers from three sites (Mali, Tobago and U.S. Virgin Islands). Inhalation and ingestion exposure pathways were explored by filter extractions using simulated lung and gastric fluids. Bioaccessibility varied by metal and extraction fluid. Although too few samples were analyzed for robust statistics, concentrations for several metals decreased slightly while bioaccessibility increased at downwind sites.

  17. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  18. Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

  19. Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

  20. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

    2017-07-07

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  1. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    PubMed Central

    Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

    2017-01-01

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments. PMID:28686180

  2. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  3. Potential health risk assessment of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) grown on metal contaminated soils in the central zone of Punjab, Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Khan, Zafar Iqbal; Ahmad, Kafeel; Yasmeen, Sumaira; Akram, Nudrat Aisha; Ashraf, Muhammad; Mehmood, Naunain

    2017-01-01

    Metal buildup was estimated in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), grown in central Punjab, Pakistan. This crop was irrigated with multiple water sources like ground, sewage and canal water. Concentrations of different metals like zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), lead (Pb), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), molybdenum (Mo), copper (Cu), and selenium (Se) were assessed in the potato crop irrigated with different types of waters. Sewage water treated crop and soil had higher metal concentrations than those treated with other two treatments. All metals had positive and significant correlation except for Mo which was non-significantly correlated between the vegetable and soil. Highest daily intake was observed for Fe (0.267), whereas the lowest was seen for Se (0.003). The enrichment factor and health index varied between 0.135-15.08 and 0.285-83.77, respectively. This study concludes that vegetables cultivated on soil treated with sewage water is a potent threat for human health as the metals manifest toxicity after entering the food chain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Element levels in cultured and wild sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) from the Adriatic Sea and potential risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Zvab Rožič, Petra; Dolenec, Tadej; Baždarić, Branimir; Karamarko, Vatroslav; Kniewald, Goran; Dolenec, Matej

    2014-02-01

    In this study, the role of aquaculture activity as a source of selected metals was analyzed. Significant differences in element content between cultured (Dicentrarchus labrax, Sparus aurata) and wild fishes as well as between fish muscle and their feed were detected. Higher concentrations of trace elements (i.e., As, Cu, Hg, Se) in wild fish tissues in comparison with cultured ones indicate additional sources of metals beside fish feed as natural and/or anthropogenic sources. Generally, mean Cd, Cu, Pb, Se, and Zn concentrations in cultured (0.016, 1.79, 0.14, 0.87, and 34.32 μg/g, respectively) and wild (0.011, 1.97, 0.10, 1.78, and 23,54 μg/g, respectively) fish samples were below the permissible levels, while mean As (2.57 μg/g in cultured, 4.77 μg/g in wild) and Cr (5.25 μg/g in cultured, 2.92 μg/g in wild) values exceeded those limits. Hg values were lower in cultured (0.17 μg/g) and higher in wild (1.04 μg/g) fish specimens. The highest elemental concentrations were observed in almost all fish samples from Korčula sampling site. The smallest cultured sea basses showed As (4.01 μg/g), Cr (49.10 μg/g), Pb (0.65 μg/g), and Zn (136 μg/g) concentrations above the recommended limits; however, values decreased as fish size increased. Therefore, the majority of metal concentrations in commercial fishes showed no problems for human consumption. Also calculated Se:Hg molar ratios (all >1) and selenium health benefit values (Se-HBVs) (all positive) showed that consumption of all observed fishes in human nutrition is not risk.

  5. Advances in risk assessment and communication.

    PubMed

    Goldstein, Bernard D

    2005-01-01

    Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

  6. Evaluation of potential risks from ash disposal site leachate

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, W.B.; Loh, J.Y.; Bate, M.C.

    1999-04-01

    A risk-based approach is used to evaluate potential human health risks associated with a discharge from an ash disposal site into a small stream. The RIVRISK model was used to estimate downstream concentrations and corresponding risks. The modeling and risk analyses focus on boron, the constituent of greatest potential concern to public health at the site investigated, in Riddle Run, Pennsylvania. Prior to performing the risk assessment, the model is validated by comparing observed and predicted results. The comparison is good and an uncertainty analysis is provided to explain the comparison. The hazard quotient (HQ) for boron is predicted tomore » be greater than 1 at presently regulated compliance points over a range of flow rates. The reference dose (RfD) currently recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) was used for the analyses. However, the toxicity of boron as expressed by the RfD is now under review by both the U.S. EPA and the World Health Organization. Alternative reference doses being examined would produce predicted boron hazard quotients of less than 1 at nearly all flow conditions.« less

  7. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  8. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  9. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  10. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

    DOE PAGES

    Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

    2017-07-21

    Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

  12. Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

    Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

  13. Biomarkers: Dynamic "Tools" for Health and Safety Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Today informational flow from biomarkers contributes importantly to various types of health effects research, risk assessment and risk management decisions that impact, or have the potential to impact, public health and safety. Therefore, dependent upon the nature of the health r...

  14. Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Roslyn

    2010-01-01

    "Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

  15. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    PubMed

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  16. NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

  17. Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, William; And Others

    1994-01-01

    This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

  18. Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

    EPA Science Inventory

    Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

  19. Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

    EPA Science Inventory

    ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

  1. Risk Assessment for Tooth Wear.

    PubMed

    Kontaxopoulou, Isavella; Alam, Sonia

    2015-08-01

    Tooth wear has an increasing prevalence in the UK population. The aetiology is commonly multifactorial, and the aetiopathology is through a combination of erosion, attrition, abrasion and abfraction. Erosion is associated with intrinsic or extrinsic acids, and therefore subjects with reflux disease and eating disorders are at increased risk. Fruit juice, fruits and carbonated drink consumption, frequency of consumption and specific habits are also risk factors. Attrition is more prevalent in bruxists. Other habits need to be considered when defining the risk of tooth wear. Abrasion is usually associated with toothbrushing and toothpastes, especially in an already acidic environment. Patients with extensive lesions that affect dentin may be at higher risk, as well as those presenting with unstained lesions. Monitoring of the progress of tooth wear is recommended to identify those with active tooth wear. Indices for tooth wear are a helpful aid.

  2. Guidelines for Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These Guidelines set forth principles and procedures to guide EPA scientists in evaluating environmental contaminants that may pose neurotoxic risks, and inform Agency decision makers and the public about these procedures.

  3. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    PubMed

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

  5. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

  6. AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

  7. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  8. Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

    SciTech Connect

    Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

    2013-09-01

    The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersionmore » 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.« less

  9. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  10. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  11. Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

    2016-01-01

    Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

  12. Values in science and risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wandall, Birgitte

    2004-09-25

    It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

  13. The hidden risk of deep vein thrombosis--the need for risk factor assessment: case reviews.

    PubMed

    Race, Tara Kay; Collier, Paul E

    2007-01-01

    Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a very serious, potentially fatal, and very preventable medical condition. It is important for all patients admitted to the hospital to be screened for the risk of developing a DVT. This could be easily accomplished by performing a risk factor assessment-screening tool on all patients. It is also important to educate the medical and nursing staff on the fact that all patients are at risk for developing DVT, not just surgical patients who are often believed to be at the highest risk of DVT. The implementation of the risk factor assessment could potentially save lives and reduce the hospital costs of treating and managing the complications of DVT and venous thromboembolic disease. The cases chosen for review in this article will demonstrate many risk factors that often go overlooked in nonsurgical patients. The implementation of a risk factor assessment tool could potentially aid in the recognition and appropriate prophylaxis of those patients who are at extremely high risk for DVT. Without appropriate recognition of the risk for DVT, patients may be placed at risk for DVT and the potentially fatal and/or debilitating complications associated with the development of DVT.

  14. Residential metal contamination and potential health risks of ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Potosí, Bolivia, is the site of centuries of historic and present-day mining of the Cerro Rico Mountain, known for its rich polymetallic deposits, and was the site of large-scale Colonial era silver refining operations, both of which have left a legacy of pollution. In this study, trace elements were quantified in adobe brick, dirt floor, and surface dust samples from 49 houses. Mean concentrations of total mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and arsenic (As) were statistically significantly greater than concentrations measured in Sucre, Bolivia, a non-mining town used as a reference site, and exceeded US-based soil screening levels that are designed to be protective of human health. Adobe brick samples were analyzed for bioaccessible concentrations of elements using a simulated gastric fluid (GF) extraction. Mean GF extractable concentrations of Hg, As, and Pb were 0.841, 14.9, and 30.2 percent of the total concentration, respectively. Total and GF extractable concentrations of these elements were used to estimate exposure and potential health risks to children following incidental ingestion of adobe brick particles. Risks were assessed using a range of potential ingestion rates (50-1000 mg/day). Although the majority of households have total Hg, As, and Pb concentrations that represent a potential health risk, fewer are of concern when GF extractable concentrations are considered at lower ingestion rates. For Hg, only a small percentage of the sampled houses have GF ex

  15. Quantifying the Risk Posed by Potential Earth Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chesley, Steven R.; Chodas, Paul W.; Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.; Yeomans, Donald K.

    2002-10-01

    Predictions of future potential Earth impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs) have become commonplace in recent years, and the rate of these detections is likely to accelerate as asteroid survey efforts continue to mature. In order to conveniently compare and categorize the numerous potential impact solutions being discovered we propose a new hazard scale that will describe the risk posed by a particular potential impact in both absolute and relative terms. To this end, we measure each event in two ways, first without any consideration of the event's time proximity or its significance relative to the so-called background threat, and then in the context of the expected risk from other objects over the intervening years until the impact. This approach is designed principally to facilitate communication among astronomers, and it is not intended for public communication of impact risks. The scale characterizes impacts across all impact energies, probabilities and dates, and it is useful, in particular, when dealing with those cases which fall below the threshold of public interest. The scale also reflects the urgency of the situation in a natural way and thus can guide specialists in assessing the computational and observational effort appropriate for a given situation. In this paper we describe the metrics introduced, and we give numerous examples of their application. This enables us to establish in rough terms the levels at which events become interesting to various parties.

  16. The Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Khambhati, Jay; Allard-Ratick, Marc; Dhindsa, Devinder; Lee, Suegene; Chen, John; Sandesara, Pratik B; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Wong, Nathan D; Blumenthal, Roger S; Sperling, Laurence

    2018-06-19

    The authors would like to submit two corrections on the recently published manuscript, Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment. In section 4, the original sentence states: "However, the SCCT does not recommend use of a CAC score in low-risk patients with an ASCVD risk of < 10%." We would like to correct this to "Furthermore, the SCCT recommends consideration of a CAC score in those with a risk score of 5-20% and selectively in those with lower predicted risk who have a family history of premature ASCVD or other risk conditions." This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  17. Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-10-01

    0721 TITLE: Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kathleen F. Arcaro...Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 Sept 2008 - 14 Sept 2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk 5a...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to determine if exfoliated epithelial cells present in breast milk can be used to assess

  18. Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

    PubMed

    Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

    2012-02-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

  20. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  1. The duty of care 2: risk assessment and risk management.

    PubMed

    Fullbrook, Suzanne

    In this second article in the series, the issue of risk assessment and management, in the context of a recent case, is revisited. The case in question is outlined in the previous article 'Compliance with directives and protocols'.

  2. A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA released the final report entitled, A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children, which examines the impact of potential exposures during developmental lifestages and subsequent lifestages, while emphasizing the iterative nature of the analysis phase with a multidisciplinary team. Major findings and conclusions: This report outlines the framework in which mode of action(s) (MOA) can be considered across life stages. The framework is based upon existing approaches adopted in the Framework on Cumulative Risk Assessment and identifies existing guidance, guidelines and policy papers that relate to children's health risk assessment. It emphasizes the importance of an iterative approach between hazard, dose response, and exposure analyses. In addition, it includes discussion of principles for weight of evidence consideration across life stages for the hazard characterization database.Key science/assessment issues:This framework addresses the questions of why and how an improved children's health risk assessment will strengthen the overall risk assessment process across the Agency. This approach improves the scientific explanation of children's risk and will add value by: 1) providing for a more complete evaluation of the potential for vulnerability at different life stages, including a focus on the underlying biological events and critical developmental periods for incorporating MOA considerations; 2) evaluating of the potential fo

  3. Biocontainment laboratory risk assessment: perspectives and considerations.

    PubMed

    Patterson, Amy; Fennington, Kelly; Bayha, Ryan; Wax, Diane; Hirschberg, Rona; Boyd, Nancy; Kurilla, Michael

    2014-07-01

    The ability to respond to public health emergencies involving infectious diseases as well as our ability to adequately prepare for as yet unknown or unrecognized emerging infectious diseases requires suitable facilities within which scientific investigations can take place. To ensure the safe conduct of such investigations so that laboratory workers and the general public are protected from potential consequences of accidental or intentional release of high consequence pathogens, special containment facilities have been designed and constructed. Evaluation of the adequacy of containment for these types of investigations requires a risk assessment (RA) as part of the overall construction project for these types of laboratories. A discussion of the RA process along with considerations that impact the design of such studies and the overall results is presented. Published 2014. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  4. Remote Assessment of Lunar Resource Potential

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, G. Jeffrey

    1992-01-01

    Assessing the resource potential of the lunar surface requires a well-planned program to determine the chemical and mineralogical composition of the Moon's surface at a range of scales. The exploration program must include remote sensing measurements (from both Earth's surface and lunar orbit), robotic in situ analysis of specific places, and eventually, human field work by trained geologists. Remote sensing data is discussed. Resource assessment requires some idea of what resources will be needed. Studies thus far have concentrated on oxygen and hydrogen production for propellant and life support, He-3 for export as fuel for nuclear fusion reactors, and use of bulk regolith for shielding and construction materials. The measurement requirements for assessing these resources are given and discussed briefly.

  5. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    PubMed

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  6. CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

  7. Quantifying Construction Site Sediment Discharge Risk and Treatment Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrell, L.; Beighley, R. E.

    2006-12-01

    Dealing with soil erosion and sediment transport can be a significant challenge during the construction process due to the potentially large spatial and temporal extent and conditions of bare soils. Best Management Practices (BMP) are commonly used to eliminate or reduce offsite discharge of sediment. However, few efforts have investigated the time varying risk of sediment discharge from construction sites, which often have dynamic soil conditions and the potential for less than optimal BMP installations. The goal of this research is to improve the design, implementation and effectiveness of sediment and erosion control at construction sites using site specific, temporal distributions of sediment discharge risk. Sediment risk is determined from individual factors leading to sediment expert, such as rainfall frequency, the adequacy of BMP installations, and the extent and duration of bare soil conditions. This research specifically focuses on quantifying: (a) the effectiveness of temporary sediment and control erosion control BMPs in preventing, containing, and/or treating construction site sediment discharge at varying levels of "proper" installation, and (b) sediment discharge potential from construction sites during different phases of construction, (ex., disturbed earth operations). BMPs are evaluated at selected construction sites in southern California and at the Soil Erosion Research Laboratory (SERL) in the Civil and Environmental Engineering department at San Diego State University. SERL experiments are performed on a 3-m by 10-m tilting soil bed with soil depths up to 1 meter, slopes ranging from 0 to 50 percent, and rainfall rates up to 150 mm/hr (6 in/hr). BMP performance is assessed based on experiments where BMPs are installed per manufacture specifications, potential less than optimal installations, and no treatment conditions. Soil conditions are also varied to represent site conditions during different phases of construction (i.e., loose lifts

  8. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  9. Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

    PubMed

    Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

    2014-05-01

    To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

  10. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  11. Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

    2010-01-01

    NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

  12. Conditional risk assessment of adolescents’ electronic cigarette perceptions

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Gansky, Stuart A.; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie; Couch, Elizabeth T.; Essex, Gwen; Walsh, Margaret M.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Adapt an established instrument for measuring adolescents’ cigarette-related perceptions for new application with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). Methods In this exploratory study, 104 male high school students (40% tobacco ever-users) estimated the probability of potential e-cigarette risks (eg, lung cancer) or benefits (eg, look cool). We calculated associations between risk/benefit composite scores, ever-use, and use intention for e-cigarettes and analogously for combustible cigarettes. Results E-cigarette ever-use was associated with lower perceived risks, with adjusted differences versus never-users greater for e-cigarettes than cigarettes. Risk composite score was inversely associated, and benefit score positively associated, with e-cigarette ever-use and use intention. Conclusion Conditional risk assessment characterized adolescents’ perceived e-cigarette risk/benefit profile, with potential utility for risk-perception measurement in larger future studies. PMID:25741686

  13. Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...

  14. Iodine-131 Releases from Radioactive Lanthanum Processing at the X-10 Site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee (1944-1956)- An Assessment of Quantities released, Off-Site Radiation Doses, and Potential Excess Risks of Thyroid Cancer, Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    Apostoaei, A.I.; Burns, R.E.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1999-07-01

    In the early 1990s, concern about the Oak Ridge Reservation's past releases of contaminants to the environment prompted Tennessee's public health officials to pursue an in-depth study of potential off-site health effects at Oak Ridge. This study, the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction, was supported by an agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Tennessee, and was overseen by a 12-member panel appointed by Tennessee's Commissioner of Health. One of the major contaminants studied in the dose reconstruction was radioactive iodine, which was released to the air by X-10 (now called Oak Ridge National Laboratory) asmore » it processed spent nuclear reactor fuel from 1944 through 1956. The process recovered radioactive lanthanum for use in weapons development. Iodine concentrates in the thyroid gland so health concerns include various diseases of the thyroid, such as thyroid cancer. The large report, ''Iodine-131 Releases from Radioactive Lanthanum Processing at the X-10 Site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee (1944-1956) - An Assessment of Quantities Released, Off-site Radiation Doses, and Potential Excess Risks of Thyroid Cancer,'' is in two volumes. Volume 1 is the main body of the report, and Volume 1A, which has the same title, consists of 22 supporting appendices. Together, these reports serve the following purposes: (1) describe the methodologies used to estimate the amount of iodine-131 (I-131) released; (2) evaluate I-131's pathway from air to vegetation to food to humans; (3) estimate doses received by human thyroids; (4) estimate excess risk of acquiring a thyroid cancer during ones lifetime; and (5) provide equations, examples of historical documents used, and tables of calculated values. Results indicate that females born in 1952 who consumed milk from a goat pastured a few miles east of X-10 received the highest doses from I-131 and would have had the highest risks of contracting thyroid cancer. Doses from cow's milk are considerably less

  15. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

  16. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  17. Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

  18. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

  19. From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

    2013-01-01

    Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

  20. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  1. Therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient: augmenting clinical suicide risk assessment with structured instruments.

    PubMed

    Homaifar, Beeta; Matarazzo, Bridget; Wortzel, Hal S

    2013-09-01

    This column is the second in a series presenting a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. As discussed in the first part of the series, the model involves several elements including augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. This column explores in more detail how to augment clinical risk assessment with structured instruments. Unstructured clinical interviews have the potential to miss important aspects of suicide risk assessment. By augmenting the free-form clinical interview with structured instruments that demonstrate reliability and validity, a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to suicide risk assessment is achieved. Incorporating structured instruments into practice also serves a medicolegal function, since these instruments may become a living part of the medical record, establishing baseline levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and facilitating future clinical determinations regarding safety needs. We describe several instruments used in a multidisciplinary suicide consultation service, each of which has demonstrated relevance to suicide risk assessment and screening, ease of administration, and strong psychometric properties. In addition, we emphasize the importance of viewing suicide risk assessment as an ongoing process rather than as a singular event. Finally, we discuss special considerations in the evolving practice of risk assessment.

  2. Transsexual attractions and sexual reassignment surgery: Risks and potential risks

    PubMed Central

    P. Fitzgibbons, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Transsexual issues and sexual reassignment surgery (SRS) are receiving a great deal of attention and support in the media, schools, and government. Given the early age at which youth seek treatment for transsexual attractions (TSA) and gender dysphoria and given the serious risks associated with such treatment, it is essential that family and youth be advised about these risks and alternative treatment options. Physicians and mental-health professionals have a professional responsibility to know and communicate the serious risks, in particular risk of suicide, that are associated with SRS; the spontaneous resolution of TSA in youth; the psychological conflicts that have been identified in such patients and in their parents; the successful treatment of conflicts associated TSA and the regrets of those who have been through SRS. SRS and gender theory are also viewed from the faith perspective of Pope Francis and Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI. Lay summary: Transsexuals and sex-change operations are receiving a great deal of attention. Young people may seek treatment for transsexual attractions at an early age even though these attractions may go away on their own. Psychological conflicts have been identified in these patients and their parents and may be successfully treated. There are serious risks associated with sex change. They include the risk of depressive illness and suicide. Physicians and mental-health professionals should know these risks and the regrets of those who have been through sex-change operations. These patients and their families also should be informed of other treatment options. PMID:26997675

  3. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  4. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  5. Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-04-01

    The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure.

  6. Untapped potential of health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to “green economy” and “institutional framework” strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century’s sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

  7. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  8. Guidelines for Reproductive Toxicity Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These guidelines discuss the scientific basis for concern about exposure to agents that cause reproductive toxicity and describe the principles and procedures to be followed in conducting risk assessments for reproductive toxicity.

  9. How We Assess Risks to Pollinators

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's pollinator risk assessment framework is part of its regulatory decision-making process for all pesticides, relying on a tiered process and focusing on major routes of exposure while distinguishing different types of pesticide treatment.

  10. USE OF GENOMIC DATA IN RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment
    John C. Rockett
    Reproductive Toxicology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA<...

  11. Salivary Biomarkers for Caries Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Lihong; Shi, Wenyuan

    2013-01-01

    Saliva contains various microbes and host biological components that could be used for caries risk assessment. This review focuses on the research topics that connect dental caries with saliva, including both the microbial and host components within saliva. PMID:23505756

  12. Framework for metals risk assessment [ Journal Article

    EPA Science Inventory

    This is a science-based document that describes basic principles that address the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

  13. Psoriasis and cardiovascular risk. Assessment by different cardiovascular risk scores.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Torres, R; Pita-Fernández, S; Fonseca, E

    2013-12-01

    Psoriasis is an inflammatory disease associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, very few studies determine cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham risk score or other indices more appropriate for countries with lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. To determine multiple cardiovascular risk scores in psoriasis patients, the relation between cardiovascular risk and psoriasis features and to compare our results with those in the literature. We assessed demographic data, smoking status, psoriasis features, blood pressure and analytical data. Cardiovascular risk was determined by means of Framingham, SCORE, DORICA and REGICOR scores. A total of 395 patients (59.7% men and 40.3% women) aged 18-86 years were included. The proportion of patients at intermediate and high risk of suffering a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years was 30.5% and 11.4%, respectively, based on Framingham risk score; 26.9% and 2.2% according to DORICA and 6.8% and 0% using REGICOR score. According to the SCORE index, 22.1% of patients had a high risk of death due to a cardiovascular event over the next 10 years. Cardiovascular risk was not related to psoriasis characteristics, except for the Framingham index, with higher risk in patients with more severe psoriasis (P = 0.032). A considerable proportion of patients had intermediate or high cardiovascular risk, without relevant relationship with psoriasis characteristics and treatment schedules. Therefore, systematic evaluation of cardiovascular risk scores in all psoriasis patients could be useful to identify those with increased cardiovascular risk, subsidiary of lifestyle changes or therapeutic interventions. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

  14. Sulfur Oxides Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In conducting risk/exposure assessments for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review, EPA will first develop a draft Scope and Methods Plan which will describe the proposed scope of the quantitative and qualitative analyses to be performed and the tools/methods that may be employed Provide opportunity for CASAC feedback on EPA's plans for the risk and exposure assessment for the Sulfur Oxides NAAQS review

  15. 2008 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2008 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 14 - 17, 2008 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk ...

  16. Risk Assessment in Child Sexual Abuse Cases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Jill S.; Morin, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Despite continuing improvements in risk assessment for child protective services (CPS) and movement toward actuarial prediction of child maltreatment, current models have not adequately addressed child sexual abuse. Sexual abuse cases present unique and ambiguous indicators to the investigating professional, and risk factors differ from those…

  17. MULTIMEDIA HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposures and health risk comparisons from different sites may be used for allocating limited resources available for remedial action. It is important that comparisons between different sites use similar levels of site-specific data and/or screening level data. Risk assessment c...

  18. 2009 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2009 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 27-30, 2009 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  19. Risk assessment as standard work in design.

    PubMed

    Morrill, Patricia W

    2013-01-01

    This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

  20. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT CONFERENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA has announced

    The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference
    Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OH
    April 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!

    The Annual Toxicology and Risk Ass...

  1. FRAMEWORK FOR CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT (REVIEW DRAFT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several reports have highlighted the importance of understanding the accumulation of risks from multiple environmental stressors. These include the National Research Council's 1994 report Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment and the 1997 report by the Presidential/Cong...

  2. Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on April 23, 1996 (Federal Register: 17960-18011) for a 120-day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are a revision of EPA's 1986 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Ass...

  3. Assessing Explosives Safety Risks, Deviations, And Consequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-07-31

    Technical Paper 23 31 July 2009 DDESB Assessing Explosives Safety Risks, Deviations, And Consequences ...Deviations, And Consequences 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER...and approaches to assist warfighters in executing their mission, conserving resources, and maximizing operational effectiveness . When mission risk

  4. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  5. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  6. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  7. Extreme Conditioning Programs: Potential Benefits and Potential Risks.

    PubMed

    Knapik, Joseph J

    2015-01-01

    and minimize the risk of overuse injuries. 2015.

  8. Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

    2012-04-01

    Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

  9. Nanomaterials: a challenge for toxicological risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Haase, Andrea; Tentschert, Jutta; Luch, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology has emerged as one of the central technologies in the twenty-first century. This judgment becomes apparent by considering the increasing numbers of people employed in this area; the numbers of patents, of scientific publications, of products on the market; and the amounts of money invested in R&D. Prospects originating from different fields of nanoapplication seem unlimited. However, nanotechnology certainly will not be able to meet all of the ambitious expectations communicated, yet has high potential to heavily affect our daily life in the years to come. This might occur in particular in the field of consumer products, for example, by introducing nanomaterials in cosmetics, textiles, or food contact materials. Another promising area is the application of nanotechnology in medicine fueling hopes to significantly improve diagnosis and treatment of all kinds of diseases. In addition, novel technologies applying nanomaterials are expected to be instrumental in waste remediation and in the production of efficient energy storage devices and thus may help to overcome world's energy problems or to revolutionize computer and data storage technologies. In this chapter, we will focus on nanomaterials. After a brief historic and general overview, current proposals of how to define nanomaterials will be summarized. Due to general limitations, there is still no single, internationally accepted definition of the term "nanomaterial." After elaborating on the status quo and the scope of nanoanalytics and its shortcomings, the current thinking about possible hazards resulting from nanoparticulate exposures, there will be an emphasis on the requirements to be fulfilled for appropriate health risk assessment and regulation of nanomaterials. With regard to reliable risk assessments, until now there is still the remaining issue to be resolved of whether or not specific challenges and unique features exist on the nanoscale that have to be tackled and distinctively

  10. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    PubMed

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Biometric assessment of prostate cancer's metastatic potential.

    PubMed

    Cooper, C R; Emmett, N; Harris-Hooker, S; Patterson, R; Cooke, D B

    1994-01-01

    Currently, no protocol exists that can assess the metastatic potential of prostate adenocarcinoma. The reason for this is partly due to the lack of information on cellular changes that result in a tumor cell's becoming metastatic. In this investigation, attempts were made to devise a method that correlated with the metastatic potential of AT-1, Mat-Lu, and Mat-LyLu cell lines of the Dunning R-3327 rat prostatic adenocarcinoma system. To accomplish this, we applied BioQuant biometric parameters, i.e., area, shape factor, and cell motility. AT-1 had a lower shape factor and a greater area as compared with the more highly metastatic Mat-Lu subline. No significant difference in area or shape factor was detected between the AT-1 cell line and the highly metastatic Mat-LyLu line. However, the lowly metastatic AT-1 line had less motility as compared with the Mat-Lu and Mat-LyLu lines. This study revealed that metastatic potential could be partially predicted via area and shape factor and accurately predicted via cell motility.

  12. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  13. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    PubMed

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  15. Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

    Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

  16. An integrated science-based methodology to assess potential ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    There is an urgent need for broad and integrated studies that address the risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) along the different endpoints of the society, environment, and economy (SEE) complex adaptive system. This article presents an integrated science-based methodology to assess the potential risks of engineered nanomaterials. To achieve the study objective, two major tasks are accomplished, knowledge synthesis and algorithmic computational methodology. The knowledge synthesis task is designed to capture “what is known” and to outline the gaps in knowledge from ENMs risk perspective. The algorithmic computational methodology is geared toward the provision of decisions and an understanding of the risks of ENMs along different endpoints for the constituents of the SEE complex adaptive system. The approach presented herein allows for addressing the formidable task of assessing the implications and risks of exposure to ENMs, with the long term goal to build a decision-support system to guide key stakeholders in the SEE system towards building sustainable ENMs and nano-enabled products. The following specific aims are formulated to achieve the study objective: (1) to propose a system of systems (SoS) architecture that builds a network management among the different entities in the large SEE system to track the flow of ENMs emission, fate and transport from the source to the receptor; (2) to establish a staged approach for knowledge synthesis methodo

  17. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

  18. OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  19. Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

    Treesearch

    Justin Fitch

    2008-01-01

    In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

  20. Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges.

    PubMed

    MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. RISK ASSESSMENT AND LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ASSESSMENT (LCIA) FOR HUMAN HEALTH CANCEROUS AND NONCANCEROUS EMISSIONS: INTEGRATED AND COMPLEMENTARY WITH CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE USEPA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The historical parallels, complementary roles, and potential for integration of human health risk assessment (RA) and Life-Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) are explored. Previous authors have considered the comparison of LCA and risk assessment recognizing the inherent differences ...

  2. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Bruno, Michael

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less

  3. Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: An assessment of the risk to Douglas commercial transport aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schjelderup, H. C.; Cook, C. Q.; Snyder, E.; Henning, B.; Hosford, J.; Gilles, D. L.; Swanstrom, C. W.

    1980-01-01

    The potential hazard to electrical and electronic devices should there be a release of free carbon fibers due to an aircraft crash and fire was assessed. Exposure and equipment sensitivity data were compiled for a risk analysis. Results are presented in the following areas: DC-9/DC-10 electrical/electronic component characterization; DC-9 and DC-10 fiber transfer functions; potential for transport aircraft equipment exposure to carbon fibers; and equipment vulnerability assessment. Results reflect only a negligible increase in risk for the DC-9 and DC-10 fleets either now or projected to 1993.

  4. Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2012-01-01

    The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

  5. Risk assessment principle for engineered nanotechnology in food and drug.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Myungsil; Lee, Eun Ji; Kweon, Se Young; Park, Mi Sun; Jeong, Ji Yoon; Um, Jun Ho; Kim, Sun Ah; Han, Bum Suk; Lee, Kwang Ho; Yoon, Hae Jung

    2012-06-01

    While the ability to develop nanomaterials and incorporate them into products is advancing rapidly worldwide, understanding of the potential health safety effects of nanomaterials has proceeded at a much slower pace. Since 2008, Korea Food and Drug Administration (KFDA) started an investigation to prepare "Strategic Action Plan" to evaluate safety and nano risk management associated with foods, drugs, medical devices and cosmetics using nano-scale materials. Although there are some studies related to potential risk of nanomaterials, physical-chemical characterization of nanomaterials is not clear yet and these do not offer enough information due to their limitations. Their uncertainties make it impossible to determine whether nanomaterials are actually hazardous to human. According to the above mention, we have some problems to conduct the human exposure risk assessment currently. On the other hand, uncertainty about safety may lead to polarized public debate and to businesses unwillingness for further nanotechnology investigation. Therefore, the criteria and methods to assess possible adverse effects of nanomaterials have been vigorously taken into consideration by many international organizations: the World Health Organization, the Organization for Economic and Commercial Development and the European Commission. The object of this study was to develop risk assessment principles for safety management of future nanoproducts and also to identify areas of research to strengthen risk assessment for nanomaterials. The research roadmaps which were proposed in this study will be helpful to fill up the current gaps in knowledge relevant nano risk assessment.

  6. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

    SciTech Connect

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks frommore » radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.« less

  7. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery, E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.au; Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia; Katscherian, Dianne

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component alsomore » identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.« less

  8. Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyer, Roger L.

    2010-01-01

    The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

  9. Distribution and potential health risk of groundwater uranium in Korea.

    PubMed

    Shin, Woosik; Oh, Jungsun; Choung, Sungwook; Cho, Byong-Wook; Lee, Kwang-Sik; Yun, Uk; Woo, Nam-Chil; Kim, Hyun Koo

    2016-11-01

    Chronic exposure even to extremely low specific radioactivity of natural uranium in groundwater results in kidney problems and potential toxicity in bones. This study was conducted to assess the potential health risk via intake of the groundwater containing uranium, based on the determination of the uranium occurrence in groundwater. The groundwater was investigated from a total of 4140 wells in Korea. Most of the groundwater samples showed neutral pH and (sub-)oxic condition that was influenced by the mixing with shallow groundwater due to long-screened (open) wells. High uranium contents exceeding the WHO guideline level of 30 μg L(-1) were observed in the 160 wells located mainly in the plutonic bedrock regions. The statistical analysis suggested that the uranium component was present in groundwater by desorption and re-dissolution processes. Predominant uranium phases were estimated to uranyl carbonates under the Korean groundwater circumstances. These mobile forms of uranium and oxic condition facilitate the increase of potential health risk downgradient. In particular, long-term intake of groundwater containing >200 μg U L(-1) may induce internal exposure to radiation as well as the effects of chemical toxicity. These high uranium concentrations were found in twenty four sampling wells of rural areas in this study, and they were mainly used for drinking. Therefore, the high-level uranium wells and neighboring areas must be properly managed and monitored to reduce the exposure risk for the residents by drinking groundwater. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Concentrations and Potential Health Risks of Metals in Lip Products

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Sa; Rojas-Cheatham, Ann

    2013-01-01

    Background: Metal content in lip products has been an issue of concern. Objectives: We measured lead and eight other metals in a convenience sample of 32 lip products used by young Asian women in Oakland, California, and assessed potential health risks related to estimated intakes of these metals. Methods: We analyzed lip products by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and used previous estimates of lip product usage rates to determine daily oral intakes. We derived acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) based on information used to determine public health goals for exposure, and compared ADIs with estimated intakes to assess potential risks. Results: Most of the tested lip products contained high concentrations of titanium and aluminum. All examined products had detectable manganese. Lead was detected in 24 products (75%), with an average concentration of 0.36 ± 0.39 ppm, including one sample with 1.32 ppm. When used at the estimated average daily rate, estimated intakes were > 20% of ADIs derived for aluminum, cadmium, chromium, and manganese. In addition, average daily use of 10 products tested would result in chromium intake exceeding our estimated ADI for chromium. For high rates of product use (above the 95th percentile), the percentages of samples with estimated metal intakes exceeding ADIs were 3% for aluminum, 68% for chromium, and 22% for manganese. Estimated intakes of lead were < 20% of ADIs for average and high use. Conclusions: Cosmetics safety should be assessed not only by the presence of hazardous contents, but also by comparing estimated exposures with health-based standards. In addition to lead, metals such as aluminum, cadmium, chromium, and manganese require further investigation. PMID:23674482

  11. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  12. Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

    PubMed Central

    Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

    2013-01-01

    Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

  13. Preparing for Euro 2012: developing a hazard risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Wong, Evan G; Razek, Tarek; Luhovy, Artem; Mogilevkina, Irina; Prudnikov, Yuriy; Klimovitskiy, Fedor; Yutovets, Yuriy; Khwaja, Kosar A; Deckelbaum, Dan L

    2015-04-01

    Risk assessment is a vital step in the disaster-preparedness continuum as it is the foundation of subsequent phases, including mitigation, response, and recovery. To develop a risk assessment tool geared specifically towards the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Euro 2012. In partnership with the Donetsk National Medical University, Donetsk Research and Development Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics, Donetsk Regional Public Health Administration, and the Ministry of Emergency of Ukraine, a table-based tool was created, which, based on historical evidence, identifies relevant potential threats, evaluates their impacts and likelihoods on graded scales based on previous available data, identifies potential mitigating shortcomings, and recommends further mitigation measures. This risk assessment tool has been applied in the vulnerability-assessment-phase of the UEFA Euro 2012. Twenty-three sub-types of potential hazards were identified and analyzed. Ten specific hazards were recognized as likely to very likely to occur, including natural disasters, bombing and blast events, road traffic collisions, and disorderly conduct. Preventative measures, such as increased stadium security and zero tolerance for impaired driving, were recommended. Mitigating factors were suggested, including clear, incident-specific preparedness plans and enhanced inter-agency communication. This hazard risk assessment tool is a simple aid in vulnerability assessment, essential for disaster preparedness and response, and may be applied broadly to future international events.

  14. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  15. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  16. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based onmore » the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were

  17. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  18. Assessing soil biodiversity potentials in Europe.

    PubMed

    Aksoy, Ece; Louwagie, Geertrui; Gardi, Ciro; Gregor, Mirko; Schröder, Christoph; Löhnertz, Manuel

    2017-07-01

    Soil is important as a critical component for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. The largest part of the terrestrial biodiversity relies, directly or indirectly, on soil. Furthermore, soil itself is habitat to a great diversity of organisms. The suitability of soil to host such a diversity is strongly related to its physico-chemical features and environmental properties. However, due to the complexity of both soil and biodiversity, it is difficult to identify a clear and unambiguous relationship between environmental parameters and soil biota. Nevertheless, the increasing diffusion of a more integrated view of ecosystems, and in particular the development of the concept of ecosystem services, highlights the need for a better comprehension of the role played by soils in offering these services, including the habitat provision. An assessment of the capability of soils to host biodiversity would contribute to evaluate the quality of soils in order to help policy makers with the development of appropriate and sustainable management actions. However, so far, the heterogeneity of soils has been a barrier to the production of a large-scale framework that directly links soil features to organisms living within it. The current knowledge on the effects of soil physico-chemical properties on biota and the available data at continental scale open the way towards such an evaluation. In this study, the soil habitat potential for biodiversity was assessed and mapped for the first time throughout Europe by combining several soil features (pH, soil texture and soil organic matter) with environmental parameters (potential evapotranspiration, average temperature, soil biomass productivity and land use type). Considering the increasingly recognized importance of soils and their biodiversity in providing ecosystem services, the proposed approach appears to be a promising tool that may contribute to open a forum on the need to include soils in future environmental policy making

  19. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    PubMed

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  20. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W.

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due tomore » expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

  1. Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

  2. Assessment of rainwater harvesting potential using GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hari, Durgasrilakshmi; Ramamohan Reddy, K.; Vikas, Kola; Srinivas, N.; Vikas, G.

    2018-03-01

    Rainwater harvesting (RWH) is one of the best practices to overcome the scarcity of water. Rainwater harvesting involves collection and storage of rainwater locally through different technologies, for future use. It is also useful for livestock, groundwater recharge and for irrigation practices. Potential of rainwater harvesting refers to the capacity of an individual catchment that harnesses the water falling on the catchment during a particular year considering all rainy days. The present study deals with the identification of the study area boundary and marking it as a Polygon in Google Earth Pro Later, Rooftops of various house entities and roads were digitized using the Polygon command in Google Earth Pro. GIS technique is employed for locating boundaries of the study area and for calculating the areas of various types of rooftops and roads. With the application of GIS, it is possible to assess the total potential of water that can be harvested. The present study will enable us to identify the suitable type of water harvesting structure along with the number of structures required. It is extremely an ideal and effective solution to overcome the water crisis through water conservation in the study area.

  3. Postactivation potentiation biases maximal isometric strength assessment.

    PubMed

    Lima, Leonardo Coelho Rabello; Oliveira, Felipe Bruno Dias; Oliveira, Thiago Pires; Assumpção, Claudio de Oliveira; Greco, Camila Coelho; Cardozo, Adalgiso Croscato; Denadai, Benedito Sérgio

    2014-01-01

    Postactivation potentiation (PAP) is known to enhance force production. Maximal isometric strength assessment protocols usually consist of two or more maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVCs). The objective of this study was to determine if PAP would influence isometric strength assessment. Healthy male volunteers (n = 23) performed two five-second MVCs separated by a 180-seconds interval. Changes in isometric peak torque (IPT), time to achieve it (tPTI), contractile impulse (CI), root mean square of the electromyographic signal during PTI (RMS), and rate of torque development (RTD), in different intervals, were measured. Significant increases in IPT (240.6 ± 55.7 N·m versus 248.9 ± 55.1 N·m), RTD (746 ± 152 N·m·s(-1) versus 727 ± 158 N·m·s(-1)), and RMS (59.1 ± 12.2% RMSMAX  versus 54.8 ± 9.4% RMSMAX) were found on the second MVC. tPTI decreased significantly on the second MVC (2373 ± 1200 ms versus 2784 ± 1226 ms). We conclude that a first MVC leads to PAP that elicits significant enhancements in strength-related variables of a second MVC performed 180 seconds later. If disconsidered, this phenomenon might bias maximal isometric strength assessment, overestimating some of these variables.

  4. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  5. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observ