PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

Multiple Changes to Reusable Solid Rocket Motors, Identifying Hidden Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCann, Bradley Q.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) baseline is subject to various changes. Changes are necessary due to safety and quality improvements, environmental considerations, vendor changes, obsolescence issues, etc. The RSRM program has a goal to test changes on full-scale static test motors prior to flight due to the unique RSRM operating environment. Each static test motor incorporates several significant changes and numerous minor changes. Flight motors often implement multiple changes simultaneously. While each change is individually verified and assessed, the potential for changes to interact constitutes additional hidden risk. Mitigating this risk depends upon identification of potential interactions. Therefore, the ATK Thiokol Propulsion System Safety organization initiated the use of a risk interaction matrix to identify potential interactions that compound risk. Identifying risk interactions supports flight and test motor decisions. Uncovering hidden risks of a full-scale static test motor gives a broader perspective of the changes being tested. This broader perspective compels the program to focus on solutions for implementing RSRM changes with minimal/mitigated risk. This paper discusses use of a change risk interaction matrix to identify test challenges and uncover hidden risks to the RSRM program.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

Trying not to get burned: understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors.

PubMed

Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A; Flores, Nicholas

2012-12-01

Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.

Best practices: Use of an administrative review committee at New Hampshire Hospital to mitigate risk with high-profile patients.

PubMed

de Nesnera, Alexander; Folks, David G

2010-07-01

An increasing number of patients manifesting violent and aggressive behaviors are treated at New Hampshire Hospital. Over the past ten years, the volume of referrals on an involuntary emergency petition has increased 70%. New Hampshire Hospital has successfully initiated its Administrative Review Committee, which confers a risk management process to mitigate potential liability for the hospital and treating clinicians for these high-risk patients. This best practice is viewed as helpful by clinicians and by the hospital's legal counsel. Hospitals treating similar high-risk patients may also benefit from developing a similar committee and risk management process.

Economic Incentives in the Socially Optimal Management of Infectious Disease: When [Formula: see text] is Not Enough.

PubMed

Morin, B R; Kinzig, A P; Levin, S A; Perrings, C A

2017-09-29

Does society benefit from encouraging or discouraging private infectious disease-risk mitigation? Private individuals routinely mitigate infectious disease risks through the adoption of a range of precautions, from vaccination to changes in their contact with others. Such precautions have epidemiological consequences. Private disease-risk mitigation generally reduces both peak prevalence of symptomatic infection and the number of people who fall ill. At the same time, however, it can prolong an epidemic. A reduction in prevalence is socially beneficial. Prolongation of an epidemic is not. We find that for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially suboptimal-either too low or too high. The social optimum requires either more or less private mitigation. Since private mitigation effort depends on the cost of mitigation and the cost of illness, interventions that change either of these costs may be used to alter mitigation decisions. We model the potential for instruments that affect the cost of illness to yield net social benefits. We find that where a disease is not very infectious or the duration of illness is short, it may be socially optimal to promote private mitigation effort by increasing the cost of illness. By contrast, where a disease is highly infectious or long lasting, it may be optimal to discourage private mitigation by reducing the cost of disease. Society would prefer a shorter, more intense, epidemic to a longer, less intense epidemic. There is, however, a region in parameter space where the relationship is more complicated. For moderately infectious diseases with medium infectious periods, the social optimum depends on interactions between prevalence and duration. Basic reproduction numbers are not sufficient to predict the social optimum.

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

PubMed

Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

2009-11-01

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

Improving Our Odds: Success through Continuous Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2009-01-01

Launching a rocket, running a business, driving to work and even day-to-day living all involve some degree of risk. Risk is ever present yet not always recognized, adequately assessed and appropriately mitigated. Identification, assessment and mitigation of risk are elements of the risk management component of the "continuous improvement" way of life that has become a hallmark of successful and progressive enterprises. While the application of risk management techniques to provide continuous improvement may be detailed and extensive, the philosophy, ideals and tools can be beneficially applied to all situations. Experiences with the use of risk identification, assessment and mitigation techniques for complex systems and processes are described. System safety efforts and tools used to examine potential risks of the Ares I First Stage of NASA s new Constellation Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) presently being designed are noted as examples. Recommendations from lessons learned are provided for the application of risk management during the development of new systems as well as for the improvement of existing systems. Lessons learned and suggestions given are also examined for applicability to simple systems, uncomplicated processes and routine personal daily tasks. This paper informs the reader of varied uses of risk management efforts and techniques to identify, assess and mitigate risk for improvement of products, success of business, protection of people and enhancement of personal life.

Investigating surety methodologies for cognitive systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caudell, Thomas P.; Peercy, David Eugene; Mills, Kristy

2006-11-01

Advances in cognitive science provide a foundation for new tools that promise to advance human capabilities with significant positive impacts. As with any new technology breakthrough, associated technical and non-technical risks are involved. Sandia has mitigated both technical and non-technical risks by applying advanced surety methodologies in such areas as nuclear weapons, nuclear reactor safety, nuclear materials transport, and energy systems. In order to apply surety to the development of cognitive systems, we must understand the concepts and principles that characterize the certainty of a system's operation as well as the risk areas of cognitive sciences. This SAND report documentsmore » a preliminary spectrum of risks involved with cognitive sciences, and identifies some surety methodologies that can be applied to potentially mitigate such risks. Some potential areas for further study are recommended. In particular, a recommendation is made to develop a cognitive systems epistemology framework for more detailed study of these risk areas and applications of surety methods and techniques.« less

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

PubMed

Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

2016-05-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food

PubMed Central

Brorby, Gregory P.; Krishan, Mansi

2016-01-01

Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds. PMID:27102178

Mitigating risk in academic preclinical drug discovery.

PubMed

Dahlin, Jayme L; Inglese, James; Walters, Michael A

2015-04-01

The number of academic drug discovery centres has grown considerably in recent years, providing new opportunities to couple the curiosity-driven research culture in academia with rigorous preclinical drug discovery practices used in industry. To fully realize the potential of these opportunities, it is important that academic researchers understand the risks inherent in preclinical drug discovery, and that translational research programmes are effectively organized and supported at an institutional level. In this article, we discuss strategies to mitigate risks in several key aspects of preclinical drug discovery at academic drug discovery centres, including organization, target selection, assay design, medicinal chemistry and preclinical pharmacology.

Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of Propensity Score Matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2014-01-01

The employment of damage mitigation measures by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called Propensity Score Matching to a survey of German households along along two major rivers major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005 and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly € 1700 to € 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between € 6700-14 000 of flood damage. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply Propensity Score Matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of propensity score matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2014-07-01

The employment of damage mitigation measures (DMMs) by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called propensity score matching (PSM) to a survey of German households along three major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005, and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly EUR 1700 to 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between EUR 6700 and 14 000 of flood damage per flood event. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply propensity score matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors.

PubMed

Gabardi, Steven

2013-03-01

To review the history of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) with the mammalian target of rapamycin (mToR) inhibitors, evaluate their required REMS elements, and delineate the reasons for them being released from their REMS requirements. Articles were identified through a literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-July 2012) using the search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, everolimus, sirolimus and organ transplant (individual organs also were searched). Information from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturers of the mToR inhibitors was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. The mToR inhibitors have been associated with several potential risks, including proteinuria, graft thrombosis, and wound-healing complications. The Food and Drug Administration approved REMS programs for both sirolimus and everolimus. The manufacturers of both medications complied with the components of their approved REMS, but after less than 2 years, both medications have been relieved of their REMS obligations. The only element of the sirolimus REMS was a medication guide, whereas the everolimus REMS consisted of a medication guide and a communication plan. The sirolimus REMS was implemented more than 10 years after its initial approval by the Food and Drug Administration, but was released from its REMS requirement within 7 months of its implementation. The everolimus REMS was instituted upon initial approval and was removed approximately 2 years later. Both medications' REMS were always intended to educate health care providers and patients about the potential risks associated with this transplant immunosuppressant. Transplant practitioners should be familiar with the mToR inhibitors' associated risks and properly educate patients regarding the inhibitors' risk-benefit profiles.

Communicating Environmental Risks: Clarifying the Severity Effect in Interpretations of Verbal Probability Expressions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam

2011-01-01

Verbal probability expressions are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, uses them to convey risks associated with climate change. Given the potential for human action to mitigate future environmental risks, it is important to understand how people respond to these…

Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Rolinski, Susanne; Weindl, Isabelle; Schmitz, Christoph; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Humpenöder, Florian; Biewald, Anne; Stevanovic, Miodrag

2014-05-13

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winkler, Mirko S., E-mail: mirko.winkler@unibas.c; NewFields, LLC, Pretoria 0062; Divall, Mark J., E-mail: mdivall@newfields.co

In the developing world, large-scale projects in the extractive industry and natural resources sectors are often controversial and associated with long-term adverse health consequences to local communities. In many industrialised countries, health impact assessment (HIA) has been institutionalized for the mitigation of anticipated negative health effects while enhancing the benefits of projects, programmes and policies. However, in developing country settings, relatively few HIAs have been performed. Hence, more HIAs with a focus on low- and middle-income countries are needed to advance and refine tools and methods for impact assessment and subsequent mitigation measures. We present a promising HIA approach, developedmore » within the frame of a large gold-mining project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The articulation of environmental health areas, the spatial delineation of potentially affected communities and the use of a diversity of sources to obtain quality baseline health data are utilized for risk profiling. We demonstrate how these tools and data are fed into a risk analysis matrix, which facilitates ranking of potential health impacts for subsequent prioritization of mitigation strategies. The outcomes encapsulate a multitude of environmental and health determinants in a systematic manner, and will assist decision-makers in the development of mitigation measures that minimize potential adverse health effects and enhance positive ones.« less

In-vehicle work zone messages : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

Work zones present an increased risk to drivers and the work crew. To mitigate these risks, this study investigated the : potential effects of in-vehicle messages to communicate work zone events to the driver. The researchers conducted : literature r...

Community perceptions of carbon sequestration: insights from California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Ray, Isha

2009-07-01

Over the last decade, many energy experts have supported carbon sequestration as a viable technological response to climate change. Given the potential importance of sequestration in US energy policy, what might explain the views of communities that may be directly impacted by the siting of this technology? To answer this question, we conducted focus groups in two communities who were potentially pilot project sites for California's DOE-funded West Coast Regional Partnership (WESTCARB). We find that communities want a voice in defining the risks to be mitigated as well as the justice of the procedures by which the technology is implemented. We argue that a community's sense of empowerment is key to understanding its range of carbon sequestration opinions, where 'empowerment' includes the ability to mitigate community-defined risks of the technology. This sense of empowerment protects the community against the downside risk of government or corporate neglect, a risk that is rarely identified in risk assessments but that should be factored into assessment and communication strategies.

Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Bridging the Divide between Safety and Risk Management for your Project or Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutomski, Mike

2005-01-01

This presentation will bridge the divide between these separate but overlapping disciplines and help explain how to use Risk Management as an effective management decision support tool that includes safety. Risk Management is an over arching communication tool used by management to prioritize and effectively mitigate potential problems before they concur. Risk Management encompasses every kind of potential problem that can occur on a program or project. Some of these are safety issues such as hazards that have a specific likelihood and consequence that need to be controlled and included to show an integrated picture of accepted) mitigated, and residual risk. Integrating safety and other assurance disciplines is paramount to accurately representing a program s or projects risk posture. Risk is made up of several components such as technical) cost, schedule, or supportability. Safety should also be a consideration for every risk. The safety component can also have an impact on the technical, cost, and schedule aspect of a given risk. The current formats used for communication of safety and risk issues are not consistent or integrated. The presentation will explore the history of these disciplines, current work to integrate them, and suggestions for integration for the future.

Mitigating risk in academic preclinical drug discovery

PubMed Central

Dahlin, Jayme L.; Inglese, James; Walters, Michael A.

2018-01-01

The number of academic drug discovery centres has grown considerably in recent years, providing new opportunities to couple the curiosity-driven research culture in academia with rigorous preclinical drug discovery practices used in industry. To fully realize the potential of these opportunities, it is important that academic researchers understand the risks inherent in preclinical drug discovery, and that translational research programmes are effectively organized and supported at an institutional level. In this article, we discuss strategies to mitigate risks in several key aspects of preclinical drug discovery at academic drug discovery centres, including organization, target selection, assay design, medicinal chemistry and preclinical pharmacology. PMID:25829283

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

Identification of human-carnivore conflict hotspots to prioritize mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Cushman, Samuel A; Elliot, Nicholas B

2017-12-01

Human-carnivore conflict is a primary driver of carnivore declines worldwide and resolving these conflicts is a conservation priority. However, resources to mitigate conflicts are limited and should be focused on areas of highest priority. We conducted 820 semistructured interviews with community members living within Kenya's Maasai Mara ecosystem. A multiscale analysis was used to determine the influence of husbandry and environmental factors on livestock depredation inside livestock enclosures (bomas). Areas with a high proportion of closed habitat and protected areas had the highest risk of depredation. Depredation was most likely to occur at weak bomas and at households where there were fewer dogs. We used the results to identify potential conflict hotspots by mapping the probability of livestock depredation across the landscape. 21.4% of the landscape was classified as high risk, and within these areas, 53.4% of the households that were interviewed had weak bomas. Synthesis and applications . With limited resources available to mitigate human-carnivore conflicts, it is imperative that areas are identified where livestock is most at risk of depredation. Focusing mitigation measures on high-risk areas may reduce conflict and lead to a decrease in retaliatory killings of predators.

Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: What motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Bruce Shindler

2011-01-01

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes...

Resilience of diversity-disease risk interactions following wildfire disturbance

Treesearch

Devon A. Gaydos; Krishna Pacifici; Ross K. Meentemeyer; David. M. Rizzo

2017-01-01

The potential for biodiversity to mitigate risk of infectious diseases in ecological communities – known as the diversity-disease risk hypothesis – is fundamental to understanding links between landscape change and environmental health of forests affected by sudden oak death (SOD). Previous research of the Phytophthora ramorum pathosystem...

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing System (MPwise): Its Description and Application to Earthquake Risk Mitigation.

PubMed

Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan

2017-10-20

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation.

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing System (MPwise): Its Description and Application to Earthquake Risk Mitigation

PubMed Central

Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan

2017-01-01

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation. PMID:29053608

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies for drugs with abuse liability: public interest, special interest, conflicts of interest, and the industry perspective.

PubMed

Wright, Curtis; Schnoll, Sidney; Bernstein, David

2008-10-01

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) formerly known as Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs) are a regulatory technique for dealing with anticipated risks of new medications and are especially important for new drugs with abuse potential. This paper describes the origin and history of risk-management plans for drugs that might be abused, the proper use of these plans in minimizing the risk to the public, and the special difficulties inherent in managing risks for drugs with abuse potential. Drugs with abuse liability are distinctive since the risks inherent in manufacture and distribution include not only risks to patients prescribed the medications, but also risks to the general public including subgroups in the population not intended to get the drug and who receive no medical benefit from the medication. The crafting of risk-management plans intended to protect nonpatient populations is unique for these products. The content, extent, and level of intensity of these plans affect areas of medical ethics, civil liability, and criminal prosecution. The need for risk-management plans for drugs with abuse liability can potentially act as a deterrent to investment and is a factor in decisions concerning the development of new medications for the treatments of pain, ADHD, anxiety disorders, and addictions. This paper provides a framework for moving the process of REMS development forward and criteria for evaluating the probity and adequacy of such programs.

Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William; Bachmann, Corinne

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO 2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO 2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g.more » geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO 2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO 2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk assessment and mitigation approach. A phased approach to risk management is then introduced. The basic goal of the phased approach is to constantly adapt site operations to current conditions and available characterization data. The remainder of the report then focuses in detail on different components of the monitoring, risk assessment, and mitigation strategies. Issues in current seismic risk assessment methods that must be modified to address induce seismicity are highlighted. The report then concludes with several specific recommendations for operators and regulatory authorities to consider when selecting, permitting, and operating a storage project.« less

Application of Advanced Sensor Technology to DoD Soil Vapor Intrusion Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

that would be more representative of exposure levels and provide for a more accurate assessment of potential risk due to VI. In a study at a...concerns has been evolving in recent years, in an effort to better assess potential risks to human health and the environment and to mitigate or...has issued a directive concerning the hierarchy of human health toxicity values used for risk assessments (USEPA, 2003). In this hierarchy, USEPA

Does Implementation of Biomathematical Models Mitigate Fatigue and Fatigue-related Risks in Emergency Medical Services Operations? A Systematic Review

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-11

Background: Work schedules like those of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel have been associated with increased risk of fatigue-related impairment. Biomathematical modeling is a means of objectively estimating the potential impacts of fatigue...

Patterns of Risk Using an Integrated Spatial Multi-Hazard Model (PRISM Model)

EPA Science Inventory

Multi-hazard risk assessment has long centered on small scale needs, whereby a single community or group of communities’ exposures are assessed to determine potential mitigation strategies. While this approach has advanced the understanding of hazard interactions, it is li...

Pets' Impact on Your Patients' Health: Leveraging Benefits and Mitigating Risk.

PubMed

Hodgson, Kate; Barton, Luisa; Darling, Marcia; Antao, Viola; Kim, Florence A; Monavvari, Alan

2015-01-01

Over two thirds of Americans live with pets and consider them important members of the family. Pets benefit human health (zooeyia) in 4 ways: as builders of social capital, as agents of harm reduction, as motivators for healthy behavior change, and as potential participants in treatment plans. Conversely, pets can present risks to their owners. They are potential sources of zoonotic disease and injury. Pets can also challenge a family's prioritization of financial and social resources. To activate the benefits of zooeyia and appropriately calibrate and mitigate zoonotic risk, physicians first need to know about the pets in their patients' families. Asking about pets is a simple and feasible approach to assess patients' environmental history and social capital. Asking about pets is a nonthreatening way to build rapport and demonstrates an interest in the whole family, which can improve the physician-patient therapeutic alliance. Physicians can use an interprofessional, collaborative approach with veterinarians to address zoonotic health risks and leverage zooeyia. © Copyright 2015 by the American Board of Family Medicine.

Process-based quality management for clinical implementation of adaptive radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noel, Camille E.; Santanam, Lakshmi; Parikh, Parag J.

Purpose: Intensity-modulated adaptive radiotherapy (ART) has been the focus of considerable research and developmental work due to its potential therapeutic benefits. However, in light of its unique quality assurance (QA) challenges, no one has described a robust framework for its clinical implementation. In fact, recent position papers by ASTRO and AAPM have firmly endorsed pretreatment patient-specific IMRT QA, which limits the feasibility of online ART. The authors aim to address these obstacles by applying failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify high-priority errors and appropriate risk-mitigation strategies for clinical implementation of intensity-modulated ART. Methods: An experienced team of twomore » clinical medical physicists, one clinical engineer, and one radiation oncologist was assembled to perform a standard FMEA for intensity-modulated ART. A set of 216 potential radiotherapy failures composed by the forthcoming AAPM task group 100 (TG-100) was used as the basis. Of the 216 failures, 127 were identified as most relevant to an ART scheme. Using the associated TG-100 FMEA values as a baseline, the team considered how the likeliness of occurrence (O), outcome severity (S), and likeliness of failure being undetected (D) would change for ART. New risk priority numbers (RPN) were calculated. Failures characterized by RPN ≥ 200 were identified as potentially critical. Results: FMEA revealed that ART RPN increased for 38% (n = 48/127) of potential failures, with 75% (n = 36/48) attributed to failures in the segmentation and treatment planning processes. Forty-three of 127 failures were identified as potentially critical. Risk-mitigation strategies include implementing a suite of quality control and decision support software, specialty QA software/hardware tools, and an increase in specially trained personnel. Conclusions: Results of the FMEA-based risk assessment demonstrate that intensity-modulated ART introduces different (but not necessarily more) risks than standard IMRT and may be safely implemented with the proper mitigations.« less

Process-based quality management for clinical implementation of adaptive radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Noel, Camille E.; Santanam, Lakshmi; Parikh, Parag J.; Mutic, Sasa

2014-01-01

Purpose: Intensity-modulated adaptive radiotherapy (ART) has been the focus of considerable research and developmental work due to its potential therapeutic benefits. However, in light of its unique quality assurance (QA) challenges, no one has described a robust framework for its clinical implementation. In fact, recent position papers by ASTRO and AAPM have firmly endorsed pretreatment patient-specific IMRT QA, which limits the feasibility of online ART. The authors aim to address these obstacles by applying failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify high-priority errors and appropriate risk-mitigation strategies for clinical implementation of intensity-modulated ART. Methods: An experienced team of two clinical medical physicists, one clinical engineer, and one radiation oncologist was assembled to perform a standard FMEA for intensity-modulated ART. A set of 216 potential radiotherapy failures composed by the forthcoming AAPM task group 100 (TG-100) was used as the basis. Of the 216 failures, 127 were identified as most relevant to an ART scheme. Using the associated TG-100 FMEA values as a baseline, the team considered how the likeliness of occurrence (O), outcome severity (S), and likeliness of failure being undetected (D) would change for ART. New risk priority numbers (RPN) were calculated. Failures characterized by RPN ≥ 200 were identified as potentially critical. Results: FMEA revealed that ART RPN increased for 38% (n = 48/127) of potential failures, with 75% (n = 36/48) attributed to failures in the segmentation and treatment planning processes. Forty-three of 127 failures were identified as potentially critical. Risk-mitigation strategies include implementing a suite of quality control and decision support software, specialty QA software/hardware tools, and an increase in specially trained personnel. Conclusions: Results of the FMEA-based risk assessment demonstrate that intensity-modulated ART introduces different (but not necessarily more) risks than standard IMRT and may be safely implemented with the proper mitigations. PMID:25086527

Process-based quality management for clinical implementation of adaptive radiotherapy.

PubMed

Noel, Camille E; Santanam, Lakshmi; Parikh, Parag J; Mutic, Sasa

2014-08-01

Intensity-modulated adaptive radiotherapy (ART) has been the focus of considerable research and developmental work due to its potential therapeutic benefits. However, in light of its unique quality assurance (QA) challenges, no one has described a robust framework for its clinical implementation. In fact, recent position papers by ASTRO and AAPM have firmly endorsed pretreatment patient-specific IMRT QA, which limits the feasibility of online ART. The authors aim to address these obstacles by applying failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify high-priority errors and appropriate risk-mitigation strategies for clinical implementation of intensity-modulated ART. An experienced team of two clinical medical physicists, one clinical engineer, and one radiation oncologist was assembled to perform a standard FMEA for intensity-modulated ART. A set of 216 potential radiotherapy failures composed by the forthcoming AAPM task group 100 (TG-100) was used as the basis. Of the 216 failures, 127 were identified as most relevant to an ART scheme. Using the associated TG-100 FMEA values as a baseline, the team considered how the likeliness of occurrence (O), outcome severity (S), and likeliness of failure being undetected (D) would change for ART. New risk priority numbers (RPN) were calculated. Failures characterized by RPN ≥ 200 were identified as potentially critical. FMEA revealed that ART RPN increased for 38% (n = 48/127) of potential failures, with 75% (n = 36/48) attributed to failures in the segmentation and treatment planning processes. Forty-three of 127 failures were identified as potentially critical. Risk-mitigation strategies include implementing a suite of quality control and decision support software, specialty QA software/hardware tools, and an increase in specially trained personnel. Results of the FMEA-based risk assessment demonstrate that intensity-modulated ART introduces different (but not necessarily more) risks than standard IMRT and may be safely implemented with the proper mitigations.

Does Implementation of Biomathematical Models Mitigate Fatigue and Fatigue-related Risks in Emergency Medical Services Operations? A Systematic Review.

PubMed

James, Francine O; Waggoner, Lauren B; Weiss, Patricia M; Patterson, P Daniel; Higgins, J Stephen; Lang, Eddy S; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2018-02-15

Work schedules like those of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel have been associated with increased risk of fatigue-related impairment. Biomathematical modeling is a means of objectively estimating the potential impacts of fatigue on performance, which may be used in the mitigation of fatigue-related safety risks. In the context of EMS operations, our objective was to assess the evidence in the literature regarding the effectiveness of using biomathematical models to help mitigate fatigue and fatigue-related risks. A systematic review of the evidence evaluating the use of biomathematical models to manage fatigue in EMS personnel or similar shift workers was performed. Procedures proposed by the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology were used to summarize and rate the certainty in the evidence. Potential bias attached to retained studies was documented using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias tool for experimental studies. The literature search strategy, which focused on both EMS personnel and non-EMS shift workers, yielded n = 2,777 unique records. One paper, which investigated non-EMS shift workers, met inclusion criteria. As part of a larger effort, managers and dispatchers of a trucking operation were provided with monthly biomathematical model analyses of predicted fatigue in the driver workforce, and educated on how they could reduce predicted fatigue by means of schedule adjustments. The intervention showed a significant reduction in the number and cost of vehicular accidents during the period in which biomathematical modeling was used. The overall GRADE assessment of evidence quality was very low due to risk of bias, indirectness, imprecision, and publication bias. This systematic review identified no studies that investigated the impact of biomathematical models in EMS operations. Findings from one study of non-EMS shift workers were favorable toward use of biomathematical models as a fatigue mitigation scheduling aid, albeit with very low quality of evidence pertaining to EMS operations. We propose three focus areas of research priorities that, if addressed, could help better elucidate the utility and impact of biomathematical models as a fatigue-mitigation tool in the EMS environment.

Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

PubMed

Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

2018-05-01

A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated considerations for determining social vulnerability to wildfire and articulate alternative means to collect such information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What motivates individuals to protect themselves from risks: the case of wildland fires.

PubMed

Martin, Ingrid M; Bender, Holly; Raish, Carol

2007-08-01

This research investigates the cognitive perceptual process that homeowners go through when faced with the decision to protect themselves from the risk of wildfires. This decision can be examined by looking at the interaction between the integrated protection motivation theory-transtheoretical model and different levels of homeowners' subjective knowledge related to wildfire risks. We investigated the role of motivation, decision stages of risk readiness, and subjective knowledge on the number of risk-mitigating actions undertaken by homeowners living in high-risk communities. The results indicate that homeowners who are in an early or precontemplative stage (both low and high subjective knowledge) as well as low knowledge contemplatives are motivated by their perceived degree of vulnerability to mitigate the risk. In contrast, high knowledge contemplatives' potential behavioral changes are more likely to be motivated by increasing their perceptions of the severity of the risk. Risk-mitigating behaviors undertaken by high knowledge action homeowners are influenced by their perceptions of risk severity, self-efficacy, and response efficacy. In contrast, the low knowledge action homeowners engage in risk reduction behaviors without the influence of any of the PMT variables; demonstrating their motivation to emulate others in their community. These results have implications for the type of information that should be used to effectively communicate risks in an effort to influence the diverse homeowner segments to engage in risk-reduction behaviors.

Institutionalizing fire safety in making land use and development decisions

Treesearch

Marie-Annette Johnson; Marc Mullenix

1995-01-01

Because of three major wildland fires in the past 5 years along the Front Range of the Boulder County area in Colorado, current and potential residents should be told of steps that can reduce the risks of these fire hazards. The Wildfire Hazard Identification and Mitigation System (WHIMS) is used by the county and city to assist in the identification and mitigation of...

Financial Impact of Cancer Drug Wastage and Potential Cost Savings From Mitigation Strategies.

PubMed

Leung, Caitlyn Y W; Cheung, Matthew C; Charbonneau, Lauren F; Prica, Anca; Ng, Pamela; Chan, Kelvin K W

2017-07-01

Cancer drug wastage occurs when a parenteral drug within a fixed vial is not administered fully to a patient. This study investigated the extent of drug wastage, the financial impact on the hospital budget, and the cost savings associated with current mitigation strategies. We conducted a cross-sectional study in three University of Toronto-affiliated hospitals of various sizes. We recorded the actual amount of drug wasted over a 2-week period while using current mitigation strategies. Single-dose vial cancer drugs with the highest wastage potentials were identified (14 drugs). To calculate the hypothetical drug wastage with no mitigation strategies, we determined how many vials of drugs would be needed to fill a single prescription. The total drug costs over the 2 weeks ranged from $50,257 to $716,983 in the three institutions. With existing mitigation strategies, the actual drug wastage over the 2 weeks ranged from $928 to $5,472, which was approximately 1% to 2% of the total drug costs. In the hypothetical model with no mitigation strategies implemented, the projected drug cost wastage would have been $11,232 to $149,131, which accounted for 16% to 18% of the total drug costs. As a result, the potential annual savings while using current mitigation strategies range from 15% to 17%. The financial impact of drug wastage is substantial. Mitigation strategies lead to substantial cost savings, with the opportunity to reinvest those savings. More research is needed to determine the appropriate methods to minimize risk to patients while using the cost-saving mitigation strategies.

Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

2017-04-01

Large differences in climate outcomes are projected by the end of this century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase or are reduced sufficiently to limit total warming to below 2 °C (ref. ). However, it is generally thought that benefits of mitigation are hidden by internal climate variability until later in the century. Here we show that if the likelihood of extremely hot seasons is considered, the benefits of mitigation emerge more quickly than previously thought. It takes less than 20 years of emissions reductions in many regions for the likelihood of extreme seasonal warmth to reduce by more than half following initiation of mitigation. Additionally we show that the latest possible date at which the probability of extreme seasonal temperatures will be halved through emissions reductions consistent with the 2 °C target is in the 2040s. Exposure to climate risk is therefore reduced markedly and rapidly with substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrating that the early mitigation needed to limit eventual warming below potentially dangerous levels benefits societies in the nearer term not just in the longer-term future.

Electrostatic Discharge Issues in International Space Station Program EVAs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacon, John B.

2009-01-01

EVA activity in the ISS program encounters several dangerous ESD conditions. The ISS program has been aggressive for many years to find ways to mitigate or to eliminate the associated risks. Investments have included: (1) Major mods to EVA tools, suit connectors & analytical tools (2) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (3) Plasma Contactor Units (4) Certification of new ISS flight attitudes (5) Teraflops of computation (6) Thousands of hours of work by scores of specialists (7) Monthly management attention at the highest program levels. The risks are now mitigated to a level that is orders of magnitude safer than prior operations

Recommendations to mitigate against human health risks incurred due to energetic particle irradiation beyond low earth orbit/BLEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna-Lawlor, Susan; Bhardwaj, Anil; Ferrari, Franco; Kuznetsov, Nikolay; Lal, Ajay K.; Li, Yinghui; Nagamatsu, Aiko; Nymmik, Rikho; Panasyuk, Michael; Petrov, Vladislav; Reitz, Günther; Pinsky, Lawrence; Shukor, Muszaphar (Sheikh); Singhvi, Ashok K.; Straube, Ulrich; Tomi, Leena; Lawrence, Townsend

2015-04-01

An account is provided of the main sources of energetic particle radiation in interplanetary space (Galactic Cosmic Radiation and Solar Energetic Particles) and career dose limits presently utilized by NASA to mitigate against the cancer and non-cancer effects potentially incurred by astronauts due to irradiation by these components are presented. Certain gaps in knowledge that presently militate against mounting viable human exploration in deep space due to the inherent health risks are identified and recommendations made as to how these gaps might be closed within a framework of global international cooperation.

12 CFR 217.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... operational risk exposure to reflect qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The Board-regulated...) Qualifying operational risk mitigants. Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is... institution assigns the company is assigned a PD equal to or less than 10 basis points; (ii) Has an initial...

12 CFR 324.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... operational risk exposure to reflect qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The FDIC-supervised...) Qualifying operational risk mitigants. Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is... institution assigns the company is assigned a PD equal to or less than 10 basis points; (ii) Has an initial...

76 FR 14413 - Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential Procoagulant Activity in Immune Globulin...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-16

... arterial and venous thrombosis in this context; (3) research to identify specific procoagulant proteins..., and the Plasma Protein Therapeutics Association, are jointly cosponsoring a public workshop on risk... IGIV-associated thrombotic events, to determine which procoagulant proteins may be causative, and to...

A Multi-stage Carcinogenesis Model to Investigate Caloric Restriction as a Potential Tool for Post-irradiation Mitigation of Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Tani, Shusuke; Blyth, Benjamin John; Shang, Yi; Morioka, Takamitsu; Kakinuma, Shizuko; Shimada, Yoshiya

2016-01-01

The risk of radiation-induced cancer adds to anxiety in low-dose exposed populations. Safe and effective lifestyle changes which can help mitigate excess cancer risk might provide exposed individuals the opportunity to pro-actively reduce their cancer risk, and improve mental health and well-being. Here, we applied a mathematical multi-stage carcinogenesis model to the mouse lifespan data using adult-onset caloric restriction following irradiation in early life. We re-evaluated autopsy records with a veterinary pathologist to determine which tumors were the probable causes of death in order to calculate age-specific mortality. The model revealed that in both irradiated and unirradiated mice, caloric restriction reduced the age-specific mortality of all solid tumors and hepatocellular carcinomas across most of the lifespan, with the mortality rate dependent more on age owing to an increase in the number of predicted rate-limiting steps. Conversely, irradiation did not significantly alter the number of steps, but did increase the overall transition rate between the steps. We show that the extent of the protective effect of caloric restriction is independent of the induction of cancer from radiation exposure, and discuss future avenues of research to explore the utility of caloric restriction as an example of a potential post-irradiation mitigation strategy. PMID:27390741

Towards real-time risk mitigation for NPP in Switzerland: the potential role of EEW and OEF.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cauzzi, Carlo; Wiemer, Stefan; Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John; Renault, Philippe; Le Guenan, Thomas; Douglas, John; Woessner, Jochen; Biro, Yesim; Caprio, Marta; Cua, Georgia

2014-05-01

Spurred by the research activities being carried out within the EC-funded project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction, FP7, contract no. 282862, 2011-2014, www.reaktproject.eu), we present herein the key elements to understanding the potential benefits of routinely using Earthquake Early Warning and Operational Earthquake Forecasting methods to mitigate the seismic risk at NPP in Switzerland. The advantages of using the aforementioned real-time risk reduction tools are critically discussed based on the limitations of the current scientific knowledge and technology, as well as on the costs associated to both system maintenance and machine- or human-triggered actions following an alert. Basic inputs to this discussion are, amongst others: a) the performances of the Swiss seismic network (http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/monitor, where SeisComP3 is used as earthquake monitoring software) and the selected EEW algorithm (the Virtual Seismologist, VS, http://www.seiscomp3.org/doc/seattle/2013.200/apps/vs.html), in terms of correct detections, false alerts, and missed events; b) the reliability of time-dependent hazard scenarios for the region of interest; c) a careful assessment of the frequency of occurrence of critical warnings based on the local and regional seismicity; d) the identification of the mitigation actions and their benefits and costs for the stakeholders.

On-Farm Mitigation of Transmission of Tuberculosis from White-Tailed Deer to Cattle: Literature Review and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Walter, W. David; Anderson, Charles W.; Smith, Rick; Vanderklok, Mike; Averill, James J.; VerCauteren, Kurt C.

2012-01-01

The Animal Industry Division of the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) has been challenged with assisting farmers with modifying farm practices to reduce potential for exposure to Mycobacterium bovis from wildlife to cattle. The MDARD recommendations for on-farm risk mitigation practices were developed from experiences in the US, UK and Ireland and a review of the scientific literature. The objectives of our study were to review the present state of knowledge on M. bovis excretion, transmission, and survival in the environment and the interactions of wildlife and cattle with the intention of determining if the current recommendations by MDARD on farm practices are adequate and to identify additional changes to farm practices that may help to mitigate the risk of transmission. This review will provide agencies with a comprehensive summary of the scientific literature on mitigation of disease transmission between wildlife and cattle and to identify lacunae in published research. PMID:22991687

Approaches to Quality Risk Management When Using Single-Use Systems in the Manufacture of Biologics.

PubMed

Ishii-Watabe, Akiko; Hirose, Akihiko; Katori, Noriko; Hashii, Norikata; Arai, Susumu; Awatsu, Hirotoshi; Eiza, Akira; Hara, Yoshiaki; Hattori, Hideshi; Inoue, Tomomi; Isono, Tetsuya; Iwakura, Masahiro; Kajihara, Daisuke; Kasahara, Nobuo; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Murakami, Sei; Nakagawa, Taishiro; Okumura, Takehiro; Omasa, Takeshi; Takuma, Shinya; Terashima, Iyo; Tsukahara, Masayoshi; Tsutsui, Maiko; Yano, Takahiro; Kawasaki, Nana

2015-10-01

Biologics manufacturing technology has made great progress in the last decade. One of the most promising new technologies is the single-use system, which has improved the efficiency of biologics manufacturing processes. To ensure safety of biologics when employing such single-use systems in the manufacturing process, various issues need to be considered including possible extractables/leachables and particles arising from the components used in single-use systems. Japanese pharmaceutical manufacturers, together with single-use suppliers, members of the academia and regulatory authorities have discussed the risks of using single-use systems and established control strategies for the quality assurance of biologics. In this study, we describe approaches for quality risk management when employing single-use systems in the manufacturing of biologics. We consider the potential impact of impurities related to single-use components on drug safety and the potential impact of the single-use system on other critical quality attributes as well as the stable supply of biologics. We also suggest a risk-mitigating strategy combining multiple control methods which includes the selection of appropriate single-use components, their inspections upon receipt and before releasing for use and qualification of single-use systems. Communication between suppliers of single-use systems and the users, as well as change controls in the facilities both of suppliers and users, are also important in risk-mitigating strategies. Implementing these control strategies can mitigate the risks attributed to the use of single-use systems. This study will be useful in promoting the development of biologics as well as in ensuring their safety, quality and stable supply.

Approaches to Mitigate the Unwanted Immunogenicity of Therapeutic Proteins during Drug Development.

PubMed

Salazar-Fontana, Laura I; Desai, Dharmesh D; Khan, Tarik A; Pillutla, Renuka C; Prior, Sandra; Ramakrishnan, Radha; Schneider, Jennifer; Joseph, Alexandra

2017-03-01

All biotherapeutics have the potential to induce an immune response. This immunological response is complex and, in addition to antibody formation, involves T cell activation and innate immune responses that could contribute to adverse effects. Integrated immunogenicity data analysis is crucial to understanding the possible clinical consequences of anti-drug antibody (ADA) responses. Because patient- and product-related factors can influence the immunogenicity of a therapeutic protein, a risk-based approach is recommended and followed by most drug developers to provide insight over the potential harm of unwanted ADA responses. This paper examines mitigation strategies currently implemented and novel under investigation approaches used by drug developers. The review describes immunomodulatory regimens used in the clinic to mitigate deleterious ADA responses to replacement therapies for deficiency syndromes, such as hemophilia A and B, and high risk classical infantile Pompe patients (e.g., cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, rituximab); novel in silico and in vitro prediction tools used to select candidates based on their immunogenicity potential (e.g., anti-CD52 antibody primary sequence and IFN beta-1a formulation); in vitro generation of tolerogenic antigen-presenting cells (APCs) to reduce ADA responses to factor VIII and IX in murine models of hemophilia; and selection of novel delivery systems to reduce in vivo ADA responses to highly immunogenic biotherapeutics (e.g., asparaginase). We conclude that mitigation strategies should be considered early in development for biotherapeutics based on our knowledge of existing clinical data for biotherapeutics and the immune response involved in the generation of these ADAs.

Renal Stone Risk During Spaceflight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Whitson, Peggy A.; Sams, Clarence F.; Jones, Jeffery A.; Smith, Scott M.

2009-01-01

This viewgraph presentation describes the risks of renal stone formation in manned space flight. The contents include: 1) Risk; 2) Evidence; 3) Nephrolithiasis -A Multifactorial Disease; 4) Symptoms/signs; 5) Urolithiasis and Stone Passage; 6) Study Objectives; 7) Subjects; 8) Methods; 9) Investigation Results; 10) Potassium Citrate; 11) Calcium Balance; 12) Case Study; 13) Significant Findings; 14) Risk Mitigation Strategies and Recommended Actions; and 15) Future Potential.

An analysis of land use planning and equity issues surrounding hazardous liquid and natural gas transmission pipelines in North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osland, Anna Christine

Hazardous liquid and natural gas transmission pipelines have received limited attention by planning scholars even though local development decisions can have broad consequences if a rupture occurs. In this dissertation, I evaluated the implications of land-use planning for reducing risk to transmission pipeline hazards in North Carolina via three investigations. First, using a survey of planning directors in jurisdictions with transmission pipeline hazards, I investigated the land use planning tools used to mitigate pipeline hazards and the factors associated with tool adoption. Planning scholars have documented the difficulty of inducing planning in hazardous areas, yet there remain gaps in knowledge about the factors associated with tool adoption. Despite the risks associated with pipeline ruptures, I found most localities use few mitigation tools, and the adoption of regulatory and informational tools appear to be influenced by divergent factors. Whereas risk perception, commitment, capacity, and community context were associated with total tool and information tool use, only risk perception and capacity factors were associated with regulatory tool use. Second, using interviews of emergency managers and planning directors, I examined the role of agency collaboration for building mitigation capacity. Scholars have highlighted the potential of technical collaboration, yet less research has investigated how inter-agency collaboration shapes mitigation capacity. I identify three categories of technical collaboration, discuss how collaborative spillovers can occur from one planning area to another, and challenge the notion that all technical collaborations result in equal mitigation outcomes. Third, I evaluated characteristics of the population near pipelines to address equity concerns. Surprisingly, I did not find broad support for differences in exposure of vulnerable populations. Nonetheless, my analyses uncovered statistically significant clusters of vulnerable groups within the hazard area. Interestingly, development closer to pipelines was newer than areas farther away, illustrating the failure of land-use planning to reduce development encroachment. Collectively, these results highlight the potential of land-use planning to keep people and development from encroaching on pipeline hazards. While this study indicates that planners in many areas address pipeline hazards, it also illustrates how changes to local practices can further reduce risks to human health, homeland security, and the environment.

Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and scientific results obtained so far at the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI). ERI hosts the scientific part focusing on characterization of the plate structure and source faults in and around the Tokyo metropolitan area. One of the topics is ongoing deployment of seismic stations that constitute the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net). We have deployed 226 stations with a 2-5 km interval in space. Based on seismic data obtained from the MeSO-net, we aim to reveal the detailed geometry of the subducting PSP.

Risk Mitigation of Emerging Zoonoses: Hendra Virus and Non-Vaccinating Horse Owners.

PubMed

Manyweathers, J; Field, H; Jordan, D; Longnecker, N; Agho, K; Smith, C; Taylor, M

2017-12-01

Hendra virus was identified in horses and humans in 1994, in Queensland, Australia. Flying foxes are the natural host. Horses are thought to acquire infection by direct or indirect contact with infected flying fox urine. Humans are infected from close contact with infected horses. To reduce risk of infection in horses and humans, Australian horse owners are encouraged to vaccinate horses against the virus and adopt property risk mitigation practices that focus on reducing flying fox horse contact and contamination of horses' environment with flying fox bodily fluids. This study investigates uptake of four Hendra virus risk mitigation practices in a sample of non- and partially vaccinating horse owners living close to previous Hendra virus cases. Protection motivation theory was used to develop a conceptual model to investigate risk perception and coping factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices. An online survey was administered via Facebook pages of veterinary clinics close to previous Hendra virus cases. Factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices were investigated using univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Belief that a risk mitigation practice would be effective in reducing Hendra virus risk was significantly associated with the uptake of that practice. Issues around the practicality of implementing risk mitigation practices were found to be the greatest barrier to uptake. Factors that relate to risk immediacy, such as nearby infection, were identified as more likely to trigger uptake of risk mitigation practices. The role of veterinarians in supporting Hendra risk mitigation was identified as more influential than that of respected others or friends. Findings from this study are being used to assist stakeholders in Australia responsible for promotion of risk mitigation practice in identifying additional pathways and reliable influencing factors that could be utilized for engaging and communicating with horse owners to promote Hendra virus risk mitigation behaviour. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

Mitigating Litigation for Adventure Recreation Operators: The Ski Safety Act

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brgoch, Shea; Lower, Leeann M.

2017-01-01

Adventure tourism is a rapidly growing segment of the tourism industry, which can be regarded as specific activities that are alluring for their uncertain and potentially dangerous outcomes. Risk-taking attitudes and behaviors may be common among adventure recreationists and increase the potential for litigation against recreation operators. In…

Public Health Considerations Associated with the Location and Operation of Off-Leash Dog Parks.

PubMed

Rahim, Tissa; Barrios, Pablo Romero; McKee, Geoffrey; McLaws, Melissa; Kosatsky, Tom

2018-04-01

Off-leash dog parks may enhance human health, but may also lead to health risk through infection or canine aggression. Published evidence was reviewed to examine positive and negative public health impacts of off-leash dog parks, as well as strategies for enhancing benefits and mitigating risks. Evidence suggests that off-leash dog parks can benefit physical and social health, as well as community connectedness. While studies have documented shedding of zoonotic agents in dog parks, the risk of transmission to humans is relatively unknown. Evidence on the risk of dog bites in off-leash dog parks is also limited. Case-examples from North American off-leash dog parks highlight the importance of park location/design, public adherence to safe and hygienic practices, and effective regulatory strategies for mitigating potential risks and maximizing the benefits of off-leash dog parks.

Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

2012-01-01

Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

Bio-Security Proficiencies Project for Beginning Producers in 4-H

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Martin H.; Meehan, Cheryl L.; Borba, John A.

2014-01-01

Improving bio-security practices among 4-H members who raise and show project animals is important. Bio-security measures can reduce the risk of disease spread and mitigate potential health and economic risks of disease outbreaks involving animal and zoonotic pathogens. Survey data provided statistical evidence that the Bio-Security Proficiencies…

Early Diagnosis and Intervention Strategies for Post-Traumatic Heterotopic Ossification in Severely Injured Extremities

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

so that therapies for prevention or mitigation of HO can be optimally targeted. This study seeks to contribute to advancement in each of these key...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT This study will recruit wounded warriors with severe extremity trauma, which places them at high risk for...define potential therapies for prevention or mitigation of HO. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Wound healing 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF

Lunar Dust: Characterization and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyatt. Mark J.; Feighery, John

2007-01-01

Lunar dust is a ubiquitous phenomenon which must be explicitly addressed during upcoming human lunar exploration missions. Near term plans to revisit the moon as a stepping stone for further exploration of Mars, and beyond, places a primary emphasis on characterization and mitigation of lunar dust. Comprised of regolith particles ranging in size from tens of nanometers to microns, lunar dust is a manifestation of the complex interaction of the lunar soil with multiple mechanical, electrical, and gravitational effects. The environmental and anthropogenic factors effecting the perturbation, transport, and deposition of lunar dust must be studied in order to mitigate it's potentially harmful effects on exploration systems. The same hold true for assessing the risk it may pose for toxicological health problems if inhaled. This paper presents the current perspective and implementation of dust knowledge management and integration, and mitigation technology development activities within NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program. This work is presented within the context of the Constellation Program's Integrated Lunar Dust Management Strategy. This work further outlines the scientific basis for lunar dust behavior, it's characteristics and potential effects, and surveys several potential strategies for its control and mitigation both for lunar surface operations and within the working volumes of a lunar outpost. The paper also presents a perspective on lessons learned from Apollo and forensics engineering studies of Apollo hardware.

Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 2: Mitigation Strategies.

PubMed

Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

2017-12-01

Part 1 of this review summarizes the consequences of risk aversion and the observational studies and surveys relevant to this phenomenon, almost all of which are derived from cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology. In Part 2, we describe the root cause of risk aversion-the belief by providers that current risk adjustment is inadequate to account for the severity of their highest-risk patients, thereby prejudicing their publicly reported performance scores. Evidence supporting the robustness of current risk adjustment is presented, as well as nine potential strategies to further mitigate risk aversion: optimization of data source, risk models, and performance measures; exclusion of high-risk patients; exclusion of non-procedure-related end points; separate reporting of high-risk patients; reporting by condition or diagnosis rather than by procedures; reporting at the hospital or program level rather than the physician level; collaborative, cross-disciplinary decision making; active surveillance for risk aversion; and improved stakeholder education. Of these, the first is most desirable, widely applicable, and resistant to gaming. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved representation of investment decisions in assessments of CO2 mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Flannery, Brian P.; Hultman, Nathan E.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Victor, David G.

2015-05-01

Assessments of emissions mitigation patterns have largely ignored the huge variation in real-world factors--in particular, institutions--that affect where, how and at what costs firms deploy capital. We investigate one such factor--how national institutions affect investment risks and thus the cost of financing. We use an integrated assessment model (IAM; ref. ) to represent the variation in investment risks across technologies and regions in the electricity generation sector--a pivotally important sector in most assessments of climate change mitigation--and compute the impact on the magnitude and distribution of mitigation costs. This modified representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, achieving an emissions mitigation goal is more expensive than it would be in a world with uniform investment risks. Second, industrialized countries mitigate more, and developing countries mitigate less. Here, we introduce a new front in the research on how real-world factors influence climate mitigation. We also suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element of cost-effective climate mitigation strategies.

Complications of Recanalization of Chronic Total Occlusion

PubMed Central

Kalyanasundaram, Arun; Lombardi, William L.

2015-01-01

Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) of Chronic Total Occlusions (CTO) is an accepted revascularization procedure. These complex procedures carry with them certain risks and potential complications. Complications of PCI such as contrast induced renal dysfunction, radiation, etc, assume more relevance given the length and complexity of these procedures. Further, certain complications such as donor vessel injury, foreign body entrapment are unique to CTO PCI. A thorough understanding of the potential complications is important in mitigating risk during these complex procedures.

Recognizing Risk and Vulnerability in Research Ethics: Imagining the "What Ifs?"

PubMed

Peter, Elizabeth; Friedland, Judith

2017-04-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) may misunderstand the vulnerability of participants, given their distance from the field. What RECs identify as the vulnerabilities that were not adequately recognized in protocols and how they attempt to protect the perceived vulnerability of participants and mitigate risks were examined using the response letters sent to researchers by three university-based RECs. Using a critical qualitative method informed by feminist ethics, we identified an overarching theme of recognizing and responding to cascading vulnerabilities and four subthemes: identifying vulnerable groups, recognizing potentially risky research, imagining the "what ifs," and mitigating perceived risks. An ethics approach that is up-close, as opposed to distant, is needed to foster closer relationships among participants, researchers, and RECs and to understand participant vulnerability and strength better.

The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E.; Van Cangh, Thomas; Beauté, Julien; Bartels, Cornelius; Tsolova, Svetla; Pharris, Anastasia; Ciotti, Massimo; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of infectious disease, including global trade and travel, the overuse of antibiotics, intensive agriculture, climate change, high population densities, and inadequate infrastructures, such as water treatment facilities. Where multiple risk drivers interact, the potential impact of a disease outbreak is amplified. The varying temporal and geographic frequency with which infectious disease events occur adds yet another layer of complexity to the issue. Mitigating the emergence and spread of infectious disease necessitates mapping and prioritising the interdependencies between public health and other sectors. Conversely, during an international public health emergency, significant disruption occurs not only to healthcare systems but also to a potentially wide range of sectors, including trade, tourism, energy, civil protection, transport, agriculture, and so on. At the same time, dealing with a disease outbreak may require a range of critical sectors for support. There is a need to move beyond narrow models of risk to better account for the interdependencies between health and other sectors so as to be able to better mitigate and respond to the risks posed by emerging infectious disease. PMID:25308818

Risk mitigation by waste-based permeable reactive barriers for groundwater pollution control at e-waste recycling sites.

PubMed

Beiyuan, Jingzi; Tsang, Daniel C W; Yip, Alex C K; Zhang, Weihua; Ok, Yong Sik; Li, Xiang-Dong

2017-02-01

Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) have proved to be a promising passive treatment to control groundwater contamination and associated human health risks. This study explored the potential use of low-cost adsorbents as PRBs media and assessed their longevity and risk mitigation against leaching of acidic rainfall through an e-waste recycling site, of which Cu, Zn, and Pb were the major contaminants. Batch adsorption experiments suggested a higher adsorption capacity of inorganic industrial by-products [acid mine drainage sludge (AMDS) and coal fly ash (CFA)] and carbonaceous recycled products [food waste compost (FWC) and wood-derived biochar] compared to natural inorganic minerals (limestone and apatite). Continuous leaching tests of sand columns with 10 wt% low-cost adsorbents were then conducted to mimic the field situation of acidic rainfall infiltration through e-waste-contaminated soils (collected from Qingyuan, China) by using synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) solution. In general, Zn leached out first, followed by Cu, and finally delayed breakthrough of Pb. In the worst-case scenario (e.g., at initial concentrations equal to 50-fold of average SPLP result), the columns with limestone, apatite, AMDS, or biochar were effective for a relatively short period of about 20-40 pore volumes of leaching, after which Cu breakthrough caused non-cancer risk concern and later-stage Pb leaching considerably increased both non-cancer and lifetime cancer risk associated with portable use of contaminated water. In contrast, the columns with CFA or FWC successfully mitigated overall risks to an acceptable level for a prolonged period of 100-200 pore volumes. Therefore, with proper selection of low-cost adsorbents (or their mixture), waste-based PRBs is a technically feasible and economically viable solution to mitigate human health risk due to contaminated groundwater at e-waste recycling sites.

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Wood, N.J.; Dinitz, L.B.

2006-01-01

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies. Copyright ?? 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Existing and Novel Biological Therapeutics in Suicide Prevention

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Joshua J.; Zarate, Carlos A.; Rasimas, J.J.

2014-01-01

We summarize outcomes for several pharmacologic and neurostimulatory approaches that have been considered potential treatments to reduce suicide risk, namely by reducing suicide deaths, attempts, and ideation in various clinical populations. Available treatments include clozapine, lithium, antidepressants, antipsychotics, electroconvulsive therapy, and transcranial magnetic stimulation. The novel repurposing of ketamine as a potential suicide-risk mitigating agent in the acute setting is also discussed. Research pathways to better understand and treat suicidal ideation and behavior from a neurobiological perspective are proposed in light of this foundation of information and the limitations and challenges inherent in suicide research. Such pathways include trials of fast-acting medications, registry approaches to identify appropriate patients for trials, identification of biomarkers, neuropsychological vulnerabilities, and endophenotypes through the study of known suicide risk–mitigating agents in hope of determining mechanisms of pathophysiology and the action of protective biological interventions. PMID:25145739

Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

viruses can be transmitted by needlestick, such as dengue virus and other hemorrhagic fever viruses. Other potential disease risks include syphilis...Infectious Dis- eases [ 11]. All hemorrhagic fever viruses except dengue virus are known to infect via artificially produced aerosols in a laboratory en...specific health care-related risks (needlestick, hemorrhagic fever viruses, severe viral respiratory disease, and tuberculosis), with suggestions

2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

2014-04-01

Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).

Development of a prototype Typhoon Risk Model over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K. Y.; Cocke, S.; Shin, D. W.; CHOI, M.; Kwon, J.

2016-12-01

Risk can be defined as probability of a given hazard of a given level causing a particular level of loss of damage (Alexander, 2000). Risk management is important for mitigation and developing plans for emergencies. More effective risk management strategies can help reduce potential losses from natural disasters like typhoon, floods, earthquakes, and so on. We are developing a prototype typhoon risk model to assess the current and potentially future hazard due to typhoons in the Western Pacific. To develop the typhoon risk model, a variety of sources of data over Korea are used such as population, damage to buildings, agriculture, ships, etc. The model is based on proven concepts used in catastrophe models that have been used in the U.S. and other regions of the world. Recently, the sea surface temperatures where typhoons have occurred have tended to increase. According to recent studies of global warming, the intensity of typhoons could increase, and the frequency of typhoons may decrease in the future climate. The prototype risk model can help us determine the change in risk as a consequence of the change in typhoon activity. We focus on Korea and other regions of interest to Korean insurers, re-insurers, and related industries. The model can potentially be coupled to various damage models or emergency management systems for planning and mitigation. In addition, the assessment would be useful for emergency planners, coastal community planners, and private and governmental insurance programs. This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA2016-8030.

Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.

PubMed

Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E

2011-04-01

The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade.

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

Perspectives on Carbon Capture and Sequestration in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle Mei-Ling

Overall, this dissertation examines a sequence of important interconnected issues: the perspectives of potential and actual CCS host communities, the perspectives of the environmental community on the rationality of CCS as viable mitigation solution for the United States, and strategies for engaging with the public on CCS. Much of the research in this dissertation is original work addressing major interdisciplinary gaps in existing literature as well as in industry and government public engagement practice. Each of the chapters is a stand-alone paper that provides a unique contribution to a series of different types of carbon management technologies and academic disciplines. They are assembled together to provide a unique integrated evaluation of these related problems. Collectively, these chapters capture some of the major challenges facing mitigation technology engagement from the potentially time consuming need for careful social site characterization to the opportunities for using citizen-guided marketing methods to identify factors that may enhance effective public engagement. Chapters 2 and 3 are essays on the perspectives of potential and actual CCS host communities. Chapter 2 finds that host communities in California's Central Valley are more concerned with the social risks of hosting a CCS project (e.g. fear of neglect should something go wrong) rather than with the technical risks of the technology. Chapter 3 finds that host communities across the US are more concerned with social risks, and want a say in how those risks should be mitigated. This Chapter concludes with a discussion of how a 'social site characterization' conducted along side a traditional site characterization when evaluating the potential for a CCS project may be a good way to both encourage positive relationships with community members and mitigate potential concerns. Chapter 4 is an essay on the perspectives of the environmental community towards the potential of CCS as a viable mitigation solution in the US. This Chapter shows that environmental non-governmental organizations' position on CCS falls into one of four camps who believe: CCS should be developed and deployed in the near-term (Enthusiasts), CCS should be studied (Prudents), CCS will likely need to be deployed but only as a last resort (Reluctants), and CCS should not be deployed (Opponents). This Chapter finds that only Enthusiasts plan on educating the public about the technology in the near-term, however their ability to influence the public may be limited because they are more adept at targeting policymakers (not as experienced with the public) and receive much of their funding from industry (not seen as particularly trustworthy). In this dissertation, Chapter 5 is an essay on using citizen-guided emotional messages about CCS as a way to effectively communicate with the energy veteran public. This Chapter finds that Wyoming citizens believe information about CCS presented within an emotionally self-referent framework is likely to be a more persuasive way to garner support for or rejection of the technology amongst the Wyoming public than just the presentation of the same information alone.

Probing Aircraft Flight Test Hazard Mitigation for the Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails & Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Research Team

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails & Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Project Integration Manager requested in July 2012 that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) form a team to independently assess aircraft structural failure hazards associated with the ACCESS experiment and to identify potential flight test hazard mitigations to ensure flight safety. The ACCESS Project Integration Manager subsequently requested that the assessment scope be focused predominantly on structural failure risks to the aircraft empennage raft empennage.

Defense Science And Technology: Further DOD And DOE Actions Needed to Provide Timely Conference Decisions and Analyze Risks from Changes in Participation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

Conference Planning and Food and Beverage Costs, Audit Report 11-43 (October 2011). 5White House, Executive Order 13589, Promoting Efficient Spending, 76...and conducted a content analysis of these interviews. Based on this analysis, we enumerated challenges and mitigation strategies as well as benefits...of officials, asking respondents to rate the effect of each potential mitigation strategy and prioritize steps for implementing the strategies . We

Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands.

PubMed

Nolan, Rachael H; Sinclair, Jennifer; Eldridge, David J; Ramp, Daniel

2018-02-15

Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

PubMed

Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mycophenolic acid preparations.

PubMed

Rostas, Sara; Kim, Miae; Gabardi, Steven

2014-03-01

To review risks associated with mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations and evaluate their required risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) elements. Articles were identified through a non-date-limited MEDLINE and EMBASE search using the terms fetal toxicity, teratogenicity, risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, MPA, mycophenolate mofetil, entericcoated MPA, and organ transplant. Information from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the manufacturers of the MPA preparations was also evaluated. The MPA preparations are associated with several potential risks, including gastrointestinal disturbances and myelosuppression; however, their impact on the fetus in pregnant patients taking 1 of these agents poses the greatest risk. The FDA approved REMS programs for all MPA products, both innovator and generic preparations, in September 2012. With evidence of increased risk of miscarriage and birth defects associated with MPA use, the FDA instituted a REMS program that contains both a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guides for the MPA products, which were previously FDA approved, should continue to be distributed to patients who get either an initial prescription filled or a refill. The ETASU requires prescribers to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgment Form. A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry specific to this medication has been established, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA.

The economics of abrupt climate change.

PubMed

Perrings, Charles

2003-09-15

The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

PubMed

Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

2017-09-01

High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p < 0.001) and, similarly, at centers performing 70 per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.26, 1.43; p < 0.001). The interaction between high donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

77 FR 57070 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-17

... their behavior to mitigate that threat. Type of information collected will include (1) risk perceptions... and Climate Change: Risk Mitigation Behaviors of Homeowners. OMB Control Number: 0596-New. Summary of... risk to human and ecosystem health. In efforts to mitigate this risk the U.S. Forest Service (FS) uses...

Exploring methods to minimize the risk of mosquitoes in rainwater harvesting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moglia, Magnus; Gan, Kein; Delbridge, Nathan

2016-12-01

Rainwater harvesting in residential homes is emerging as an important complement to centralized water supplies in urban centres around the world. Domestic rainwater harvesting systems provide a variety of benefits for water management and contribute to sustainable and integrated urban water management. There are however risks associated with rainwater harvesting that requires appropriate mitigation. One such risk is that systems can become breeding grounds for mosquitoes. This can constitute a significant health risk through the spread of mosquito-borne diseases (i.e. arbovirus and malaria). This paper explores the extent to which mosquitoes breed in rainwater harvesting systems as well as the effectiveness of different risk mitigation actions. Data were sourced from a large-scale domestic rainwater tank inspection survey undertaken in Melbourne and were analysed using simple Bayesian Network models. The observed rate of mosquito breeding was too high and was identified as a serious concern for health officials and water managers. The most common access routes into the tank system were found to be through the tank inlet or overflow. By exploring different system set-ups it was found that in order to mitigate the risk of mosquito breeding in tanks, all potential access routes must be adequately sealed. The complete eradication of mosquitos in rainwater tanks, however, may need further investigation, as 4% of systems with adequate protection at the inlet and overflow were still found to have mosquitoes in them.

Failure mode and effects analysis of the universal anaesthesia machine in two tertiary care hospitals in Sierra Leone

PubMed Central

Rosen, M. A.; Sampson, J. B.; Jackson, E. V.; Koka, R.; Chima, A. M.; Ogbuagu, O. U.; Marx, M. K.; Koroma, M.; Lee, B. H.

2014-01-01

Background Anaesthesia care in developed countries involves sophisticated technology and experienced providers. However, advanced machines may be inoperable or fail frequently when placed into the austere medical environment of a developing country. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a method for engaging local staff in identifying real or potential breakdowns in processes or work systems and to develop strategies to mitigate risks. Methods Nurse anaesthetists from the two tertiary care hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone, participated in three sessions moderated by a human factors specialist and an anaesthesiologist. Sessions were audio recorded, and group discussion graphically mapped by the session facilitator for analysis and commentary. These sessions sought to identify potential barriers to implementing an anaesthesia machine designed for austere medical environments—the universal anaesthesia machine (UAM)—and also engaging local nurse anaesthetists in identifying potential solutions to these barriers. Results Participating Sierra Leonean clinicians identified five main categories of failure modes (resource availability, environmental issues, staff knowledge and attitudes, and workload and staffing issues) and four categories of mitigation strategies (resource management plans, engaging and educating stakeholders, peer support for new machine use, and collectively advocating for needed resources). Conclusions We identified factors that may limit the impact of a UAM and devised likely effective strategies for mitigating those risks. PMID:24833727

Parenteral nutrition: risks, complications, and management.

PubMed

Worthington, Patricia H; Gilbert, Karen A

2012-01-01

Parenteral nutrition is a life-saving modality, but one that also carries risks for potentially life-threatening complications. Comprehensive management of patients receiving parenteral nutrition includes careful selection of candidates, individualizing formulas to meet patients' unique needs, monitoring response to therapy, and implementing strategies designed to avoid complications. Measures to mitigate the risk of central line-associated bloodstream infections are particularly important. As with all complex therapies, a collaborative, multidisciplinary approach promotes optimal outcomes.

Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

2011-09-01

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

Risk and resilience in the shale gas context: a nexus perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosales, T. Y.; Notte, C. A.; Allen, D. M.; Kirste, D. M.

2014-12-01

The accelerated exploration for and development of unconventional gas plays around the world has raised public concern about potential risks to human health and the environment. In this study, a risk assessment framework specific to shale gas development is proposed. The framework aims to quantify and/or qualify both risk and resilience within a water-energy nexus context, using a comprehensive approach that considers environment, health and policy. The risk assessment framework is intended to be flexible so that it can be used in different regions, but will be tested in North East British Columbia, Canada where shale gas development is rapidly expanding. The main components of risk include hazards, susceptibility and potential consequences, which will be evaluated in space and time using ArcGIS software. The hazards are associated with all phases of shale gas development and include: water, air, and soil contamination; water use (surface and groundwater), and land use disturbance, and their assessment will take into account where they may occur, their frequency, duration and magnitude. Hazard-specific susceptibility maps will be generated based on the physical characteristics of the environment (e.g. soil, geology, hydrology, topography) as well as water source information (e.g. well locations), community footprints, etc. When combined with an evaluation of potential consequences, the resulting set of spatial risk maps can then be used for water resource management, land use planning, and industry permitting. Resilience, which buffers risk, here considers the existing regulatory framework and whether or not existing regulations can mitigate risk by reducing the hazard potential or consequences. The study considers how regulations may fully, partially, or inadequately mitigate the consequences of a given hazard. If development is to continue at its current pace in North East BC, it is imperative that decision-makers recognize the changing risk and resilience profiles and respond with appropriate policy. A critical component of the study comprises a gap analysis of current regulation and a possible path forward.

Use of geographic information systems to determine new helipad locations and improve timely response while mitigating risk of helicopter emergency medical services operations.

PubMed

Foo, Cheryl P Z; Ahghari, Mahvareh; MacDonald, Russell D

2010-01-01

Traumatic injury is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, but these can be minimized by timely transport to definite care. Helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) provide timely transport and can influence survival. However, accident analyses indicate that landing at an unsecured landing zone (LZ), particularly at night, increases the risk of aviation accidents. To ensure safety, some HEMS operations land only at designated, secured LZs. This study utilized geographic information systems (GISs) to compare locations of scene call requests and secure LZs. The goal was to determine the optimal placement of new helipads as a strategy to improve access while mitigating the risk of aviation accidents. Call request data from a large air medical transport service were used to determine the geographic locations of all requests for scene responses in 2006. Request locations were compared with the locations of existing helipads, and straight-line distances between scene and helipad were determined using the GIS application. The application was then used to determine potential locations for new helipads. During the study period, 748 requests for scene calls and 269 helipads were available. There were 476 (52.4%) requests at least 10 kilometers from a helipad and 356 (36.6%) requests at least 15 kilometers from a helipad. One particular region, Southwestern Ontario, was identified as having the highest number of requests >15 kilometers from the closest helipad. GISs can be used to determine potential locations for new helipad construction using historical call request data. This evidence-based approach can improve HEMS access while mitigating operational risk.

Improving passing lane safety and efficiency for Alaska's rural non-divided highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

A series of experiments using a fixed-base driving simulator were conducted to examine the potential safety and operational : benefits of several highway safety interventions for reducing collision risk. Our approach sought to go beyond typical mitig...

Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

2015-12-01

Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element in lowering the cost of climate change mitigation solutions.

Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

PubMed

Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

2017-02-01

Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Oil Sands Environmental Compliance Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roux, Izak Johannes, III

Oil companies in Alberta, Canada, invested $32 billion on new oil sands projects in 2013. Despite the size of this investment, there is a demonstrable deficiency in the uniformity and understanding of environmental legislation requirements that manifest into increased project compliance risks. This descriptive study developed 2 prioritized lists of environmental regulatory compliance risks and mitigation strategies and used multi-criteria decision theory for its theoretical framework. Information from compiled lists of environmental compliance risks and mitigation strategies was used to generate a specialized pairwise survey, which was piloted by 5 subject matter experts (SMEs). The survey was validated by a sample of 16 SMEs, after which the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to rank a total of 33 compliance risks and 12 mitigation strategy criteria. A key finding was that the AHP is a suitable tool for ranking of compliance risks and mitigation strategies. Several working hypotheses were also tested regarding how SMEs prioritized 1 compliance risk or mitigation strategy compared to another. The AHP showed that regulatory compliance, company reputation, environmental compliance, and economics ranked the highest and that a multi criteria mitigation strategy for environmental compliance ranked the highest. The study results will inform Alberta oil sands industry leaders about the ranking and utility of specific compliance risks and mitigations strategies, enabling them to focus on actions that will generate legislative and public trust. Oil sands leaders implementing a risk management program using the risks and mitigation strategies identified in this study will contribute to environmental conservation, economic growth, and positive social change.

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.; Jones, Scott M.

2017-01-01

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

Improving the Understanding of Psychological Factors Contributing to Horse-Related Accident and Injury: Context, Loss of Focus, Cognitive Errors and Rigidity

PubMed Central

DeAraugo, Jodi; McLaren, Suzanne; McManus, Phil; McGreevy, Paul D.

2016-01-01

Simple Summary There is a high risk of injury for people involved with horses in their work or recreational pursuits. High risks are particularly evident for racing employees and veterinarians. Elevated risks of injury may be associated with misjudging how to handle situations, reduced attention caused by distractions, taking a general view, and failing to consider other strategies that may reduce risks. To improve safety for humans and horses, it is important to identify safety strategies that are flexible, focused and specific. Abstract While the role of the horse in riding hazards is well recognised, little attention has been paid to the role of specific theoretical psychological processes of humans in contributing to and mitigating risk. The injury, mortality or compensation claim rates for participants in the horse-racing industry, veterinary medicine and equestrian disciplines provide compelling evidence for improving risk mitigation models. There is a paucity of theoretical principles regarding the risk of injury and mortality associated with human–horse interactions. In this paper we introduce and apply the four psychological principles of context, loss of focus, global cognitive style and the application of self as the frame of reference as a potential approach for assessing and managing human–horse risks. When these principles produce errors that are combined with a rigid self-referenced point, it becomes clear how rapidly risk emerges and how other people and animals may repeatedly become at risk over time. Here, with a focus on the thoroughbred racing industry, veterinary practice and equestrian disciplines, we review the merits of contextually applied strategies, an evolving reappraisal of risk, flexibility, and focused specifics of situations that may serve to modify human behaviour and mitigate risk. PMID:26891333

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-15

manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved... the random variable of interest is viewed in concert with a related random vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original... manage , predict and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved situation faced

Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

2014-06-01

Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Systematic testing of flood adaptation options in urban areas through simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2016-04-01

While models can quantify flood risk in great detail, the results are subject to a number of deep uncertainties. Climate dependent drivers such as sea level and rainfall intensities, population growth and economic development all have a strong influence on future flood risk, but future developments can only be estimated coarsely. In such a situation, robust decision making frameworks call for the systematic evaluation of mitigation measures against ensembles of potential futures. We have coupled the urban development software DAnCE4Water and the 1D-2D hydraulic simulation package MIKE FLOOD to create a framework that allows for such systematic evaluations, considering mitigation measures under a variety of climate futures and urban development scenarios. A wide spectrum of mitigation measures can be considered in this setup, ranging from structural measures such as modifications of the sewer network over local retention of rainwater and the modification of surface flow paths to policy measures such as restrictions on urban development in flood prone areas or master plans that encourage compact development. The setup was tested in a 300 ha residential catchment in Melbourne, Australia. The results clearly demonstrate the importance of considering a range of potential futures in the planning process. For example, local rainwater retention measures strongly reduce flood risk a scenario with moderate increase of rain intensities and moderate urban growth, but their performance strongly varies, yielding very little improvement in situations with pronounced climate change. The systematic testing of adaptation measures further allows for the identification of so-called adaptation tipping points, i.e. levels for the drivers of flood risk where the desired level of flood risk is exceeded despite the implementation of (a combination of) mitigation measures. Assuming a range of development rates for the drivers of flood risk, such tipping points can be translated into anticipated time spans over which a measure will be effective. While the new simulation setup is limited to situations where the planner is able to define realistic ranges for the development of drivers of flood risk, it certainly contributes to an improved consideration of deep uncertainties in the planning process. Future work will particularly focus on the application of the framework in a variety of urban development contexts.

Anthropogenic impact on flood-risk: a large-scale assessment for planning controlled inundation strategies along the River Po

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Brath, Armando

2013-04-01

The European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC) has fostered the development of innovative and sustainable approaches and methodologies for flood-risk mitigation and management. Furthermore, concerning flood-risk mitigation, the increasing awareness of how the anthropogenic pressures (e.g. demographic and land-use dynamics, uncontrolled urban and industrial expansion on flood-prone area) could strongly increase potential flood damages and losses has triggered a paradigm shift from "defending the territory against flooding" (e.g. by means of levee system strengthening and heightening) to "living with floods" (e.g. promoting compatible land-uses or adopting controlled flooding strategies of areas located outside the main embankments). The assessment of how socio-economic dynamics may influence flood-risk represents a fundamental skill that should be considered for planning a sustainable industrial and urban development of flood-prone areas, reducing their vulnerability and therefore minimizing socio-economic and ecological losses due to large flood events. These aspects, which are of fundamental importance for Institutions and public bodies in charge of Flood Directive requirements, need to be considered through a holistic approach at river basin scale. This study focuses on the evaluation of large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of River Po (~350km), the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. Due to the social and economical importance of the Po River floodplain (almost 40% of the total national gross product results from this area), our study aims at investigating the potential of combining simplified vulnerability indices with a quasi-2D model for the definition of sustainable and robust flood-risk mitigation strategies. Referring to past (1954) and recent (2006) land-use data sets (e.g. CORINE) we propose simplified vulnerability indices for assessing potential flood-risk of industrial and urbanized flood prone areas taking into account altimetry and population density, and we analyze the modification of flood-risk occurred during last decades due to the demographic dynamics of the River Po floodplains. Flood hazard associated to a high magnitude event (i.e. return period of about 500 year) was estimated by means of a quasi-2D hydraulic model set up for the middle-lower portion of the Po River and for its major tributaries. The results of the study highlight how coupling a large-scale numerical model with the proposed flood-vulnerability indices could be a useful tool for decision-makers when they are called to define sustainable spatial development plans for the study area, or when they need to identify priorities in the organization of civil protection actions during a major flood event that could include the necessity of controlled flooding of flood-prone areas located outside the main embankment system.

Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2005-01-01

In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

Cost-effective and robust mitigation of space debris in low earth orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, R.; Martin, C.

It is predicted that the space debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO) will continue to grow and in an exponential manner in the long-term due to an increasing rate of collisions between large objects, unless internationally-accepted space debris mitigation measures are adopted soon. Such measures are aimed at avoiding the future generation of space debris objects and primarily need to be effective in preventing significant long-term growth in the debris population, even in the potential scenario of an increase in future space activity. It is also important that mitigation measures can limit future debris population levels, and therefore the underlying collision risk to space missions, to the lowest extent possible. However, for their wide acceptance, the cost of implementation associated with mitigation measures needs to be minimised as far as possible. Generally, a lower collision risk will cost more to achieve and vice versa, so it is necessary to strike a balance between cost and risk in order to find a cost-effective set of mitigation measures. In this paper, clear criteria are established in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of space debris mitigation measures. A full cost-risk-benefit trade-off analysis of numerous mitigation scenarios is presented. These scenarios consider explosion prevention and post-mission disposal of space systems, including de-orbiting to limited lifetime orbits and re-orbiting above the LEO region. The ESA DELTA model is used to provide long-term debris environment projections for these scenarios as input to the benefit and risk parts of the trade-off analysis. Manoeuvre requirements for the different post-mission disposal scenarios were also calculated in order to define the cost-related element. A 25-year post-mission lifetime de-orbit policy, combined with explosion prevention and mission-related object limitation, was found to be the most cost-effective solution to the space debris problem in LEO. This package would also remain effective after a significant increase in future launch traffic. It was found that the re-orbiting of space systems above the LEO region would not lead to significant collision activity there over the next century. However, above-LEO disposal should be used sparingly because the disposal region could become unstable after a limited number of explosions or collisions due to a lack of air drag to remove the resulting fragments.

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.

PubMed

Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

2015-12-01

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND REVITALIZATION TOOLS - ELECTRONIC (SMARTE) - 09-05-2007

EPA Science Inventory

Revitalization of sites potentially contaminated with environmentally toxic or hazardous materials (e.g., brownfields) is a global concern requiring a multi-disciplinary approach to mitigate the risks to human health and the environment. Many countries have committed extensive re...

Animal contact as a source of human non-typhoidal salmonellosis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Non-typhoidal Salmonella represents an important human and animal pathogen world-wide. Most human salmonellosis cases are foodborne, but each year infections are also acquired through direct or indirect animal contact in homes, veterinary clinics, zoological gardens, farm environments or other public, professional or private settings. Clinically affected animals may exhibit a higher prevalence of shedding than apparently healthy animals, but both can shed Salmonella over long periods of time. In addition, environmental contamination and indirect transmission through contaminated food and water may complicate control efforts. The public health risk varies by animal species, age group, husbandry practice and health status, and certain human subpopulations are at a heightened risk of infection due to biological or behavioral risk factors. Some serotypes such as Salmonella Dublin are adapted to individual host species, while others, for instance Salmonella Typhimurium, readily infect a broad range of host species, but the potential implications for human health are currently unclear. Basic hygiene practices and the implementation of scientifically based management strategies can efficiently mitigate the risks associated with animal contacts. However, the general public is frequently unaware of the specific disease risks involved, and high-risk behaviors are common. Here we describe the epidemiology and serotype distribution of Salmonella in a variety of host species. In addition, we review our current understanding of the public health risks associated with different types of contacts between humans and animals in public, professional or private settings, and, where appropriate, discuss potential risk mitigation strategies. PMID:21324103

Risk management and post-marketing surveillance of CNS drugs.

PubMed

Henningfield, Jack E; Schuster, Charles R

2009-12-01

Drugs affecting the central nervous system span a broad range of chemical entities, dosage forms, indications, and risks. Unintended consequences include potential abuse and overdose in non-patient drug abusers, deliberate tampering of drug dosage forms, and criminal behavior associated with diversion. Regulators must consider diverse factors to find the appropriate conditions of approval to minimize unintended consequences while enabling a level of access desired by health care providers and patients. This commentary appears as part of a special issue of Drug and Alcohol Dependence that focuses on risk management and post-marketing surveillance and addresses key issues that pose real-world challenges to pharmaceutical sponsors and regulators in particular. For example, in the U.S., Controlled Substances Act drug scheduling can be considered a risk management strategy but its legal authorities and administrative processes are independent from those of risk management (including Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies or REMS); better harmonization of these approaches is vital from drug development and regulatory perspectives. Risk management would ideally be implemented on a strong science foundation demonstrating that the tools employed to mitigate risks and ensure safe use are effective. In reality, research and evaluation of tools in this area is in its infancy and will necessarily be an evolutionary process; furthermore, there is little precedent for linking interventions and program evolution to unintended consequences such as regional outbreaks of abuse and diversion. How such issues are resolved has the potential to stimulate or stifle innovations in drug development and advance or imperil health care.

A broad scale analysis of tree risk, mitigation and potential habitat for cavity-nesting birds

Treesearch

Brian Kane; Paige S. Warren; Susannah B. Lerman

2015-01-01

Trees in towns and cities provide habitat for wildlife. In particular, cavity-nesting birds nest in the deadand decayed stems and branches of these trees. The same dead and decayed stems and branches alsohave a greater likelihood of failure, which, in some circumstances, increases risk. We examined 1760trees in Baltimore, MD, USA and western MA, USA, assessing tree...

Residents in a High Radon Potential Geographic Area: Their Risk Perception and Attitude toward Testing and Mitigation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferng, Shiaw-Fen; Lawson, Jay K.

1996-01-01

Results of a study in Boone County, Indiana--a high radon potential geographic area--show that residents' knowledge about radon is at a relatively superficial level. A significant correlation between radon knowledge and home radon tests is observed. Respondents chose the newspaper as the favorite medium through which to launch radon health…

NASA Collaborative Approach Mitigates Environmentally-Driven Obsolescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Brian; Leeney, Bob; Richards, Joni

2016-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions, like Department of Defense (DoD) organizations, require the rigorous testing and qualification of critical materials. Obsolescence supply risks created by environmental requirements can affect the cost, schedule and performance of NASA missions and the resilience of critical infrastructure. The NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center helps to identify obsolescence supply risks driven by environmental requirements and works proactively with NASA Centers and Programs, the DoD, the European Space Agency (ESA) and other agencies and partners to identify and evaluate environmentally friendly alternatives. TEERM tracks environmental regulations, identifies the potential loss of material availability and works with NASA programs and Centers to evaluate potential impacts through a risk assessment approach. TEERM collaborative projects identify, demonstrate and evaluate commercially viable alternative technologies and materials. A major focus during the Space Shuttle Program was the need to replace ozone depleting substances that were used in spray foam and cleaning applications. The potential obsolescence of coatings containing hexavalent chromium and the risks associated with lead free solder were also of concern for the Space Shuttle and present ongoing risks to new programs such as the Space Launch System. One current project teams NASA and ESA in the evaluation and testing of individual coatings and coating systems as replacements for hexavalent chromium coatings in aerospace applications. The proactive, collaborative approach used by TEERM helps reduce the cost burden on any one team partner, reduces duplication of effort, and enhances the technical quality and overall applicability of the testing and analysis.

Use of Space Technology in Flood Mitigation (Western Province, Zambia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulando, A.

2001-05-01

Disasters, by definition are events that appear suddenly and with little warning. They are usually short lived, with extreme events bringing death, injury and destruction of buildings and communications. Their aftermath can be as damaging as their physical effects through destruction of sanitation and water supplies, destruction of housing and breakdown of transport for food, temporary shelter and emergency services. Since floods are one of the natural disasters which endanger both life and property, it becomes vital to know its extents and where the hazards exists. Flood disasters manifest natural processes on a larger scale and information provided by Remote Sensing is a most appropriate input to analysis of actual events and investigations of potential risks. An analytical and qualitative image processing and interpretation of Remotely Sensed data as well as other data such as rainfall, population, settlements not to mention but a few should be used to derive good mitigation strategies. Since mitigation is the cornerstone of emergency management, it therefore becomes a sustained action that will reduce or eliminate long term risks to people and property from natural hazards such as floods and their effects. This will definitely involve keeping of homes and other sensitive structures away from flood plains. Promotion of sound land use planning based on this known hazard, "FLOODS" is one such form of mitigation that can be applied in flood affected areas within flood plain. Therefore future mitigation technologies and procedures should increasingly be based on the use of flood extent information provided by Remote Sensing Satellites like the NOAA AVHRR as well as information on the designated flood hazard and risk areas.

MSBIS: A Multi-Step Biomedical Informatics Screening Approach for Identifying Medications that Mitigate the Risks of Metoclopramide-Induced Tardive Dyskinesia.

PubMed

Xu, Dong; Ham, Alexandrea G; Tivis, Rickey D; Caylor, Matthew L; Tao, Aoxiang; Flynn, Steve T; Economen, Peter J; Dang, Hung K; Johnson, Royal W; Culbertson, Vaughn L

2017-12-01

In 2009 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) placed a black box warning on metoclopramide (MCP) due to the increased risks and prevalence of tardive dyskinesia (TD). In this study, we developed a multi-step biomedical informatics screening (MSBIS) approach leveraging publicly available bioactivity and drug safety data to identify concomitant drugs that mitigate the risks of MCP-induced TD. MSBIS includes (1) TargetSearch (http://dxulab.org/software) bioinformatics scoring for drug anticholinergic activity using CHEMBL bioactivity data; (2) unadjusted odds ratio (UOR) scoring for indications of TD-mitigating effects using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS); (3) adjusted odds ratio (AOR) re-scoring by removing the effect of cofounding factors (age, gender, reporting year); (4) logistic regression (LR) coefficient scoring for confirming the best TD-mitigating drug candidates. Drugs with increasing TD protective potential and statistical significance were obtained at each screening step. Fentanyl is identified as the most promising drug against MCP-induced TD (coefficient: -2.68; p-value<0.01). The discovery is supported by clinical reports that patients fully recovered from MCP-induced TD after fentanyl-induced general anesthesia. Loperamide is identified as a potent mitigating drug against a broader range of drug-induced movement disorders through pharmacokinetic modifications. Using drug-induced TD as an example, we demonstrated that MSBIS is an efficient in silico tool for unknown drug-drug interaction detection, drug repurposing, and combination therapy design. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measures of Residual Risk with Connections to Regression, Risk Tracking, Surrogate Models, and Ambiguity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-07

vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original variable. Residual risk can be exemplified as a quantification of the improved... the random variable of interest is viewed in concert with a related random vector that helps to manage , predict, and mitigate the risk in the original...measures of risk. They view a random variable of interest in concert with an auxiliary random vector that helps to manage , predict and mitigate the risk

Mapping for prevention: GIS models for directing childhood lead poisoning prevention programs.

PubMed Central

Miranda, Marie Lynn; Dolinoy, Dana C; Overstreet, M Alicia

2002-01-01

Environmental threats to children's health--especially low-level lead exposure--are complex and multifaceted; consequently, mitigation of these threats has proven costly and insufficient and has produced economic and racial disparities in exposure among populations. Policy makers, public health officials, child advocates, and others currently lack the appropriate infrastructure to evaluate children's risk and exposure potential across a broad range of risks. Unable to identify where the highest risk of exposure occurs, children's environmental health programs remain mitigative instead of preventive. In this article we use geographic information system spatial analysis of data from blood lead screening, county tax assessors, and the U.S. Census to predict statistically based lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit in six counties in North Carolina. The resulting model uses weighted risk factors to spatially locate modeled exposure zones, thus highlighting critical areas for targeted intervention. The methods presented here hold promise for application and extension to the other 94 North Carolina counties and nationally, as well as to other environmental health risks. PMID:12204831

Estimating the effects of Cry1F Bt-maize pollen on non-target Lepidoptera using a mathematical model of exposure

PubMed Central

Perry, Joe N; Devos, Yann; Arpaia, Salvatore; Bartsch, Detlef; Ehlert, Christina; Gathmann, Achim; Hails, Rosemary S; Hendriksen, Niels B; Kiss, Jozsef; Messéan, Antoine; Mestdagh, Sylvie; Neemann, Gerd; Nuti, Marco; Sweet, Jeremy B; Tebbe, Christoph C

2012-01-01

In farmland biodiversity, a potential risk to the larvae of non-target Lepidoptera from genetically modified (GM) Bt-maize expressing insecticidal Cry1 proteins is the ingestion of harmful amounts of pollen deposited on their host plants. A previous mathematical model of exposure quantified this risk for Cry1Ab protein. We extend this model to quantify the risk for sensitive species exposed to pollen containing Cry1F protein from maize event 1507 and to provide recommendations for management to mitigate this risk. A 14-parameter mathematical model integrating small- and large-scale exposure was used to estimate the larval mortality of hypothetical species with a range of sensitivities, and under a range of simulated mitigation measures consisting of non-Bt maize strips of different widths placed around the field edge. The greatest source of variability in estimated mortality was species sensitivity. Before allowance for effects of large-scale exposure, with moderate within-crop host-plant density and with no mitigation, estimated mortality locally was <10% for species of average sensitivity. For the worst-case extreme sensitivity considered, estimated mortality locally was 99·6% with no mitigation, although this estimate was reduced to below 40% with mitigation of 24-m-wide strips of non-Bt maize. For highly sensitive species, a 12-m-wide strip reduced estimated local mortality under 1·5%, when within-crop host-plant density was zero. Allowance for large-scale exposure effects would reduce these estimates of local mortality by a highly variable amount, but typically of the order of 50-fold. Mitigation efficacy depended critically on assumed within-crop host-plant density; if this could be assumed negligible, then the estimated effect of mitigation would reduce local mortality below 1% even for very highly sensitive species. Synthesis and applications. Mitigation measures of risks of Bt-maize to sensitive larvae of non-target lepidopteran species can be effective, but depend on host-plant densities which are in turn affected by weed-management regimes. We discuss the relevance for management of maize events where cry1F is combined (stacked) with a herbicide-tolerance trait. This exemplifies how interactions between biota may occur when different traits are stacked irrespective of interactions between the proteins themselves and highlights the importance of accounting for crop management in the assessment of the ecological impact of GM plants. PMID:22496596

A Canadian framework for applying the precautionary principle to public health issues.

PubMed

Weir, Erica; Schabas, Richard; Wilson, Kumanan; Mackie, Chris

2010-01-01

The precautionary principle has influenced environmental and public health policy. It essentially states that complete evidence of a potential risk is not required before action is taken to mitigate the effects of the potential risk. The application of precaution to public health issues is not straightforward and could paradoxically cause harm to the public's health when applied inappropriately. To avoid this, we propose a framework for applying the precautionary principle to potential public health risks. The framework consists of ten guiding questions to help establish whether a proposed application of the precautionary principle on a public health matter is based on adequacy of the evidence of causation, severity of harm and acceptability of the precautionary measures.

A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

PubMed

Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

2012-09-01

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

12 CFR 3.161 - Qualification requirements for incorporation of operational risk mitigants.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Qualification requirements for incorporation of... qualifying operational risk mitigants if: (1) The national bank's or Federal savings association's.... Qualifying operational risk mitigants are: (1) Insurance that: (i) Is provided by an unaffiliated company...

Shale gas development: a smart regulation framework.

PubMed

Konschnik, Katherine E; Boling, Mark K

2014-01-01

Advances in directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have sparked a natural gas boom from shale formations in the United States. Regulators face a rapidly changing industry comprised of hundreds of players, operating tens of thousands of wells across 30 states. They are often challenged to respond by budget cuts, a brain drain to industry, regulations designed for conventional gas developments, insufficient information, and deeply polarized debates about hydraulic fracturing and its regulation. As a result, shale gas governance remains a halting patchwork of rules, undermining opportunities to effectively characterize and mitigate development risk. The situation is dynamic, with research and incremental regulatory advances underway. Into this mix, we offer the CO/RE framework--characterization of risk, optimization of mitigation strategies, regulation, and enforcement--to design tailored governance strategies. We then apply CO/RE to three types of shale gas risks, to illustrate its potential utility to regulators.

Exploring the Potential Emotional and Behavioural Impact of Providing Personalised Genomic Risk Information to the Public: A Focus Group Study.

PubMed

Smit, Amelia K; Keogh, Louise A; Newson, Ainsley J; Hersch, Jolyn; Butow, Phyllis; Cust, Anne E

2015-01-01

To explore the potential emotional and behavioural impact of providing information on personalised genomic risk to the public, using melanoma as an example, to aid research translation. We conducted four focus groups in which 34 participants were presented with a hypothetical scenario of an individual's lifetime genomic risk of melanoma (using the term 'genetic risk'). We asked about understanding of genetic risk, who would choose to receive this risk information, potential emotional and behavioural impacts, and other concerns or potential benefits. Data were analysed thematically. Participants thought this risk information could potentially motivate preventive behaviours such as sun protection and related it to screening for other diseases including breast cancer. Factors identified as influencing the decision to receive genetic risk information included education level, children, age and gender. Participants identified potential negative impacts on the recipient such as anxiety and worry, and proposed that this could be mitigated by providing additional explanatory and prevention information, and contact details of a health professional for further discussion. Participants' concerns included workplace and insurance discrimination. Participants recognised the potential for both positive and negative emotional and behavioural impacts related to receiving information on the personalised genomic risk of melanoma. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Improving passing lane safety and efficiency for Alaska's rural non\\0x2010divided highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-06-01

A series of experiments using a fixed-base driving simulator were conducted to examine the potential safety and operational : benefits of several highway safety interventions for reducing collision risk. Our approach sought to go beyond typical mitig...

Roadside vegetation barrier designs to mitigate near-road air pollution impacts

EPA Science Inventory

With increasing evidence that exposures to air pollution near large roadways increases risks of a number of adverse human health effects, identifying methods to reduce these exposures has become a public health priority. Roadside vegetation barriers have shown the potential to re...

The quest for a true One Health perspective of brucellosis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One Health is an interdisciplinary collaboration aiming at mitigating risks to human health arising from microorganisms present in non-human animal species, which have the potential to be transmitted and cause disease in humans. Different degrees of scientific collaboration and sectoral integration ...

Impact of the 2001 Tohoku-oki earthquake to Tokyo Metropolitan area observed by the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Hayashi, H.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Honda, R.; Kasahara, K.; Obara, K.; Aketagawa, T.; Kimura, H.; Sato, H.; Okaya, D. A.

2011-12-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake brought a great impact to the Tokyo metropolitan area in both seismological aspect and seismic risk management although Tokyo is located 340 km from the epicenter. The event generated very strong ground motion even in the metropolitan area and resulted severe requifaction in many places of Kanto district. National and local governments have started to discuss counter measurement for possible seismic risks in the area taking account for what they learned from the Tohoku-oki event which is much larger than ever experienced in Japan Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9). An M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that an M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. We will discuss the main results that are obtained in the respective fields which have been integrated to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area; the project has been much improved after the Tohoku event. In order to image seismic structure beneath the Metropolitan Tokyo area we have developed Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net; Hirata et al., 2009). We have installed 296 seismic stations every few km (Kasahara et al., 2011). We conducted seismic tomography of P- and S- wave structure, seismic interferometry for shallow structure and using the dense MeSO-net data. We observed the 2011 Tohoku-oki event and its aftershocks including M7.7 event off Ibaraki prefecture, which is the largest aftershock so far. We imaged source radiation energy using the MeSO-net data by the back-projection method (Honda et al., 2011). We found seismic activity in the Kanto region has been activated after the event, suggesting increased seismic hazard in Kanto region even for plate boundary events. We use a new image of PSP and Pacific plate. We evaluate potential zones of the M7+ earthquake on the plate boundary and within the PSP slab which will be used for risk mitigation study by a socio-science group. We will also discuss a future plan to continue our effort in seismic risk mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan area, stress regime of which is seriously changed by the Tohoku-oki event. This is supported by the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?

PubMed

Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

2014-05-01

This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation exposure and lung disease in today's nuclear world.

PubMed

Deas, Steven D; Huprikar, Nikhil; Skabelund, Andrew

2017-03-01

Ionizing radiation poses important health risks. The per capita annual dose rate has increased in the United States and there is increasing concern for the risks posed by low-dose occupational exposure among workers in nuclear industries and healthcare. Recent nuclear accidents and concern for terrorism have heightened concern for catastrophic, high-dose ionizing radiation exposure. This review will highlight recent research into the risks to lung health posed by ionizing radiation exposure and into potential treatments. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and some antioxidants have shown promise as mitigators, to decrease pneumonitis and fibrosis when given after exposure. Studies of survivors of nuclear catastrophes have shown increased risk for lung cancer, especially in nonsmokers. There is evidence for increased lung cancer risk in industrial radiation workers, especially those who process plutonium and may inhale radioactive particles. There does not seem to be an increased risk of lung cancer in healthcare workers who perform fluoroscopic procedures. High-dose ionizing radiation exposure causes pneumonitis and fibrosis, and more research is needed to develop mitigators to improve outcomes in nuclear catastrophes. Long-term, low-dose occupational radiation may increase lung cancer risk. More research to better define this risk could lead to improved safety protocols and screening programs.

Dealing with the white death: avalanche risk management for traffic routes.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M; Bründl, Michael; Rhyner, Jakob

2009-01-01

This article discusses mitigation strategies to protect traffic routes from snow avalanches. Up to now, mitigation of snow avalanches on many roads and railways in the Alps has relied on avalanche sheds, which require large initial investments resulting in high opportunity costs. Therefore, avalanche risk managers have increasingly adopted organizational mitigation measures such as warning systems and closure policies instead. The effectiveness of these measures is, however, greatly dependent on human decisions. In this article, we present a method for optimizing avalanche mitigation for traffic routes in terms of both their risk reduction impact and their net benefit to society. First, we introduce a generic framework for assessing avalanche risk and for quantifying the impact of mitigation. This allows for sound cost-benefit comparisons between alternative mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study from Switzerland. Our findings suggest that site-specific characteristics of avalanche paths, as well as the economic importance of a traffic route, are decisive for the choice of optimal mitigation strategies. On routes endangered by few avalanche paths with frequent avalanche occurrences, structural measures are most efficient, whereas reliance on organizational mitigation is often the most appropriate strategy on routes endangered by many paths with infrequent or fuzzy avalanche risk. Finally, keeping a traffic route open may be very important for tourism or the transport industry. Hence, local economic value may promote the use of a hybrid strategy that combines organizational and structural measures to optimize the resource allocation of avalanche risk mitigation.

College's hot topics? Wildfire and Hazards' risk perception among university's population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuerzer, T.

2014-12-01

This research presents a novel perspective on college students and their risk perception in a fire prone US State; Idaho. Idaho was "top #1" in burned lands by acreage in 2012 with approximate 15% of all US burned lands; in 2013 "top #2". Past studies have conducted surveys on residents in high wildfire risk communities to learn what factors make homeowners more likely to engage in mitigation activities and therefore increase communities' resiliency. This research emphasis is on a population that deals with the threat of fire but is likely less invested through property ownership and other investment of risk; yet, equally threatened in quality of life. Are college students the left-out population in the 'planning for wildfires' and its communication process? Main hypothesis is that a college population will have a different perception and awareness (and therefore mitigation actions) than i.e. residents invested in the wild land urban interface (WUI). Dominant research methodologies in past studies are identified as surveys, focus groups, or interviews focusing on homeowners in fire prone areas that have witnessed wildfire or are exposed to increasing fire risk. Yet again, research on population that has no property ownership, investments at stake, and therefore no direct monetary values associated (but potentially non-monetary), is found little to none in these studies. The university population based study and its findings offers a contrast to current literature related to these traditional residents surveys/interviews. The study's survey and interactive spatial assessment of risk perception with allocation of perceived hazards zones promotes understanding of where risk is apparent for participants. Results are used to inform agencies such as campus emergency management, regional wild fire mitigation efforts, and to enhance public communication. Lessons learned include the challenges of a comprehensive inclusion process when mitigating for hazards and building resiliency in a region with development pressures.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

2013-01-01

The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2006-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-01

The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

Untested pesticide mitigation requirements: ecological, agricultural, and legal implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vyas, Nimish B.

2013-01-01

Every pesticide sold in the United States must have a U.S. Environmental Agency approved label on its container. The label provides directions for the pesticide’s use and is legally enforceable under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. For a pesticide with high ecological risks, mitigation statements may be included on the label to reduce the pesticide’s risks and to support its registration. Many mitigation mandates are easy to implement and are effective, however, at times, well-intentioned but novel and untested mitigation requirements, though theoretically sound, may not be perceived by the pesticide users to be practical under operational settings. Courts of law recognize the pesticide label as a legal document, therefore it is imperative that the label mitigation mandates be achievable. I use the rodenticide Rozol label to illustrate how an untested risk mitigation mandate may be considered too burdensome by pesticide users whereby the mitigation action may not be implemented in the field, resulting in label violation and unreasonable risks to the environment.

To risk or not to risk: Anxiety and the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation.

PubMed

Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

2016-06-01

Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and inappropriate engagement in danger mitigation behavior. However, no research has addressed whether the calibration between risk perception and danger mitigation behavior is affected by anxiety, though it is well recognized that this calibration is crucial for adaptive functioning. The current study aimed to examine whether anxiety is characterized by better or worse calibration of danger mitigation behavior to variations in risk magnitude. Low and high trait-anxious participants were presented with information about the likelihood and severity of a danger (loud noise burst) on each trial. Participants could decide to mitigate this danger by investing a virtual coin, at the cost of losing danger mitigation ability on subsequent trials. Importantly, level of risk likelihood and severity were varied independently, and the multiplicative relationship between the 2 defined total danger. Multilevel modeling showed that the magnitude of total danger predicted the probability of coin investments, over and above the effects of risk likelihood and severity, suggesting that participants calibrated their danger mitigation behavior to integrated risk information. Crucially, this calibration was affected by trait anxiety, indicating better calibration in high trait-anxious individuals. These results are discussed in light of existing knowledge and models of the effect of anxiety on risk perception and decision-making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Drop Tower Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David

2013-01-01

Ground based microgravity facilities are an important proving ground for space experiments, ground-based research and space hardware risk mitigation. An overview of existing platforms will be discussed with an emphasis on drop tower capabilities. The potential for extension to partial gravity conditions will be discussed. Input will be solicited from attendees for their potential to use drop towers in the future and the need for enhanced capabilities (e.g. partial gravity)

Version 3 of the historical-clinical-risk management-20 (HCR-20V3): relevance to violence risk assessment and management in forensic conditional release contexts.

PubMed

Douglas, Kevin S

2014-09-01

The conditional release of insanity acquittees requires decisions both about community risk level and the contextual factors that may mitigate or aggravate risk. This article discusses the potential role of the newly revised Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20, Version 3) within the conditional release context. A brief review of the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach to violence risk assessment and management is provided. Version 2 of the HCR-20, which has been broadly adopted and evaluated, is briefly described. New features of Version 3 of the HCR-20 with particular relevance to conditional release decision-making are reviewed, including: item indicators; ratings of the relevance of risk factors to an individual's violence; risk formulation; scenario planning; and risk management planning. Version 3 of the HCR-20 includes a number of features that should assist evaluators and decision-makers to determine risk level, as well as to anticipate and specify community conditions and contexts that may mitigate or aggravate risk. Research on the HCR-20 Version 3 using approximately 800 participants across three settings (forensic psychiatric, civil psychiatric, correctional) and eight countries is reviewed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

78 FR 79469 - Strategies To Address Hemolytic Complications of Immune Globulin Infusions; Public Workshop

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-30

...] Strategies To Address Hemolytic Complications of Immune Globulin Infusions; Public Workshop AGENCY: Food and... Infusions.'' The purpose of the public workshop is to identify and discuss potential risk mitigation...) (Human) infusion. Complications of hemolysis include severe anemia requiring transfusion, renal failure...

Risk-Aware Planetary Rover Operation: Autonomous Terrain Classification and Path Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Fuchs, Thoams J.; Steffy, Amanda; Maimone, Mark; Yen, Jeng

2015-01-01

Identifying and avoiding terrain hazards (e.g., soft soil and pointy embedded rocks) are crucial for the safety of planetary rovers. This paper presents a newly developed groundbased Mars rover operation tool that mitigates risks from terrain by automatically identifying hazards on the terrain, evaluating their risks, and suggesting operators safe paths options that avoids potential risks while achieving specified goals. The tool will bring benefits to rover operations by reducing operation cost, by reducing cognitive load of rover operators, by preventing human errors, and most importantly, by significantly reducing the risk of the loss of rovers.

The formulary process from a risk management perspective.

PubMed

Raber, Jack H

2010-06-01

During their evolution over the past 6 decades, hospital formularies have become more than a list of drugs that an institution keeps in stock. Today, an agent under formulary consideration must be examined not only in light of its relative efficacy, safety, and acquisition cost, but consideration must also be given to the potential indirect costs that accompany its use. Federal regulations have, for some drugs, added layers of administrative actions that must be followed to ensure their appropriate use. Examples of this are risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) and duties that may be implied or expressly addressed in the black-box warnings associated with some classes of agents and, in isolated instances, specific drugs within a given class. Regulatory interpretation of these programs and warnings has often led to the expectation that the institution providing the agent will implement effective protocols and procedures to minimize the risk of adverse events to a patient in addition to or in accordance with required programs such as REMS. The consequences for failing to meet this expectation can lead to regulatory sanctions; the potential also exists for liability exposure. Risk management principles apply to all levels of the decision-making process for evaluating a new agent for formulary inclusion or when reevaluating an agent's formulary status. Pharmacists play an important role in mitigating these risks by carefully evaluating every agent from a broader perspective.

Induced seismicity and implications for CO2 storage risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerstenberger, M. C.; Nicol, A.; Bromley, C.; Carne, R.; Chardot, L.; Ellis, S. M.; Jenkins, C.; Siggins, T.; Viskovic, P.

2012-12-01

We provide an overview of a recently completed report for the IEA GHG that represents a comprehensive review of current research and observations in induced seismicity, its risk to successful completion of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects and potential mitigation measures. We focus on two topics: a meta-analysis of related data from multiple injection projects around the globe and the implications of these data for CCS induced seismicity risk management. Published data have been compiled from injection and extraction projects around the globe to examine statistical relationships between possible controlling factors and induced seismicity. Quality control of such observational earthquake data sets is crucial to ensure robust results and issues with bias and completeness of the data set will be discussed. Analyses of the available data support previous suggestions that the locations, numbers and magnitudes of induced earthquakes are dependent on a range of factors, including the injection rate, total injected fluid volume, the reservoir permeability and the proximity of pre-existing faults. Increases in the injection rates and total volume of fluid injected, for example, typically raise reservoir pressures and increase the likelihood of elevated seismicity rates and maximum magnitudes of induced earthquakes. The risks associated with induced seismicity at CCS sites can be reduced and mitigated using a systematic and structured risk management programme. While precise forecasts of the expected induced seismicity may never be possible, a thorough risk management procedure should include some level of knowledge of the possible behaviour of induced seismicity. Risk management requires estimates of the expected magnitude, number, location and timing of potential induced earthquakes. Such forecasts should utilise site specific observations together with physical and statistical models that are optimised for the site. Statistical models presently show the most promise for forecasting induced seismicity after injection has commenced, however, with further development physical models could become key predictive tools. Combining forecasts with real-time monitoring of induced seismicity will be necessary to maintain an accurate picture of the seismicity and to allow for mitigation of the associated risks as they evolve. To optimise the utility of monitoring and mitigation programmes, site performance and management guidelines for the acceptable levels and impacts of induced seismicity together with key control measures should be established prior to injection. Such guidelines have been developed for Enhanced Geothermal Systems and should provide the starting point for a management strategy of induced seismicity at CCS sites.

Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two issues are examined: advantages and caveats of using radar rainfall estimates in operational flash flood forecasting, methodological problems as- sociated to the use of hydrological models for distributed flash flood forecasting with rainfall input estimated from radar.

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably from 2 840 000 to 9 350 000 €, depending on the selected temporal scenario and the expected closing time of the potentially affected structures. The multi-disciplinary approach discussed in this study may assist local decision makers in determining the nature and magnitude of the expected losses due to a dangerous event, which can be anticipated in a given study area, during a specified time period. Besides, a preventive knowledge of the prospective physical effects and economic consequences may help local decision makers to choose the best prevention and mitigation options and to decide how to allocate resources properly, so that potential benefits are maximised at an acceptable cost.

Medical mitigation model: quantifying the benefits of the public health response to a chemical terrorism attack.

PubMed

Good, Kevin; Winkel, David; VonNiederhausern, Michael; Hawkins, Brian; Cox, Jessica; Gooding, Rachel; Whitmire, Mark

2013-06-01

The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) and Chemical Infrastructure Risk Assessment (CIRA) are programs that estimate the risk of chemical terrorism attacks to help inform and improve the US defense posture against such events. One aspect of these programs is the development and advancement of a Medical Mitigation Model-a mathematical model that simulates the medical response to a chemical terrorism attack and estimates the resulting number of saved or benefited victims. At the foundation of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model is the concept of stock-and-flow modeling; "stocks" are states that individuals progress through during the event, while "flows" permit and govern movement from one stock to another. Using this approach, the model is able to simulate and track individual victims as they progress from exposure to an end state. Some of the considerations in the model include chemical used, type of attack, route and severity of exposure, response-related delays, detailed treatment regimens with efficacy defined as a function of time, medical system capacity, the influx of worried well individuals, and medical countermeasure availability. As will be demonstrated, the output of the CTRA/CIRA Medical Mitigation Model makes it possible to assess the effectiveness of the existing public health response system and develop and examine potential improvement strategies. Such a modeling and analysis capability can be used to inform first-responder actions/training, guide policy decisions, justify resource allocation, and direct knowledge-gap studies.

The future of fishes and fisheries in the changing oceans.

PubMed

Cheung, W W L

2018-03-01

This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; Jord J. Warmink

2017-01-01

Modeling can play a critical role in assessing and mitigating risks posed by natural hazards. These modeling efforts generally aim to characterize the occurrence, intensity, and potential consequences of natural hazards. Uncertainties surrounding the modeling process can have important implications for the development, application, evaluation, and interpretation of...

A portfolio approach to evaluating natural hazard mitigation policies: An Application to lateral-spread ground failure in Coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.; Dinitz, L.B.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Evans, A.M.

2001-01-01

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site-specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate-scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard, and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does: However, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Cartographic Design in Flood Risk Mapping - A Challenge for Communication and Stakeholder Involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, S.; Serrhini, K.; Dorner, W.

2009-12-01

In order to mitigate flood hazards and to minimise associated losses, technical protection measures have been additionally and increasingly supplemented by non-technical mitigation, i.e. land-use planning activities. This is commonly done by creating maps which indicate such areas by different cartographic symbols, such as colour, size, shape, and typography. Hazard and risk mapping is the accepted procedure when communicating potential threats to stakeholders, and is therefore required in the European Member States in order to meet the demands of the European Flood Risk Directive. However, available information is sparse concerning the impact of such maps on different stakeholders, i.e., specialists in flood risk management, politicians, and affected citizens. The lack of information stems from a traditional approach to map production which does not take into account specific end-user needs. In order to overcome this information shortage the current study used a circular approach such that feed-back mechanisms originating from different perception patterns of the end user would be considered. Different sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to different groups of test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented communication of cartographic information. Therefore, the method of eye tracking was applied using a video-oculography technique. This resulted in a suggestion for a map template which fulfils the requirement to serve as an efficient communication tool for specialists and practitioners in hazard and risk mapping as well as for laypersons. Taking the results of this study will enable public authorities who are responsible for flood mitigation to (1) improve their flood risk maps, (2) enhance flood risk awareness, and therefore (3) create more disaster-resilient communities.

Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) for extended-release and long-acting opioid analgesics: considerations for palliative care practice.

PubMed

Gudin, Jeffrey

2012-06-01

Prescription opioid analgesics are an essential treatment option for patients with moderate to severe pain. Over the last decade the increased medical use of these agents has contributed to a public health epidemic of abuse, addiction, and overdose-related deaths. These medications remain mainstays in both primary care and pain management practices. As palliative services are incorporated at earlier stages of the disease process and the number of individuals with chronic illness increases, palliative care specialists may encounter an increasing number of patients with opioid abuse and addiction problems. Extended-release (ER) and long-acting (LA) opioid formulations are administered to patients with moderate to severe chronic pain requiring around-the-clock analgesia. Given the large quantity of active ingredient contained within some dosage strengths, this medication class is associated with serious risks when taken improperly. In response to growing reports of abuse and overdose deaths, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the need for a risk mitigation strategy for the entire class of medication. The class-wide Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for ER/LA opioids will emphasize prescriber training and patient education to ensure that the therapeutic benefits outweigh the risks of addiction, unintentional overdose, and death. As primary care, pain management, and palliative care clinicians often encounter patients who require ER/LA opioids, an understanding of the suggested requirements and potential impact of this regulation is essential.

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Comparative Analysis of Supply Risk-Mitigation Strategies for Critical Byproduct Minerals: A Case Study of Tellurium.

PubMed

Bustamante, Michele L; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Alonso, Elisa

2018-01-02

Materials criticality assessment is a screening framework increasingly applied to identify materials of importance that face scarcity risks. Although these assessments highlight materials for the implicit purpose of informing future action, the aggregated nature of their findings make them difficult to use for guidance in developing nuanced mitigation strategy and policy response. As a first step in the selection of mitigation strategies, the present work proposes a modeling framework and accompanying set of metrics to directly compare strategies by measuring effectiveness of risk reduction as a function of the features of projected supply demand balance over time. The work focuses on byproduct materials, whose criticality is particularly important to understand because their supplies are inherently less responsive to market balancing forces, i.e., price feedbacks. Tellurium, a byproduct of copper refining, which is critical to solar photovoltaics, is chosen as a case study, and three commonly discussed byproduct-relevant strategies are selected: dematerialization of end-use product, byproduct yield improvement, and end-of-life recycling rate improvement. Results suggest that dematerialization will be nearly twice as effective at reducing supply risk as the next best option, yield improvement. Finally, due to its infrequent use at present and its dependence upon long product lifespans, recycling end-of-life products is expected to be the least effective option despite potentially offering other benefits (e.g., cost savings and environmental impact reduction).

Probing Aircraft Flight Test Hazard Mitigation for the Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails and Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Research Team . Volume 2; Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails and Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Project Integration Manager requested in July 2012 that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) form a team to independently assess aircraft structural failure hazards associated with the ACCESS experiment and to identify potential flight test hazard mitigations to ensure flight safety. The ACCESS Project Integration Manager subsequently requested that the assessment scope be focused predominantly on structural failure risks to the aircraft empennage (horizontal and vertical tail). This report contains the Appendices to Volume I.

Overview of the Contributing Factor Map and How it can Support your Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer A.

2014-01-01

The Contributing Factor Map (CFM) is a visual representation of a taxonomy of factors influencing human health and performance in space. This presentation will give an overview of its development and its structure. It will describe various uses of the CFM that can support researchers working within the Human Research Program (HRP) Architecture of Evidence-Risk-Gap-Task-Deliverable. For example, during the Risk phase, the CFM can be used as a "menu" to help formulate a qualitative model of the factors contributing to specific consequences of concern. It provides a reference set of factors from across the operational, vehicle design, and human domains that otherwise might not be considered if approaching a risk from a specific domain perspective. Using the CFM as a reference can increase awareness of potential cross-disciplinary collaborations for overall risk mitigation. The CFM can also be used as a framework for identifying gaps in knowledge about a risk. This identification can support the subsequent development of gaps and tasks comprising the research plan aimed at risk mitigation. Examples of these types of applications of the CFM will be discussed and information on the support available to researchers in using it will be provided.

Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems.

PubMed

Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

2016-08-01

Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Klonner, Günther; Rammer, Werner; Essl, Franz; Moreno, Adam; Neumann, Mathias; Dullinger, Stefan

2018-04-24

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Best practices: The Administrative Review Committee at New Hampshire Hospital: a one-year follow-up.

PubMed

de Nesnera, Alexander; Folks, David G

2012-06-01

New Hampshire Hospital implemented an Administrative Review Committee (ARC), a best practice that provides a risk management process to mitigate potential liability for the hospital and clinicians treating high-profile, high-risk patients. This column reports on the first year of the ARC's operation, during which the committee reviewed 206 patients. The authors describe four patient groups and their distinguishing characteristics. The ARC is accepted by clinicians as an important venue to present high-risk clinical cases and to obtain risk management guidance and consultation. The committee has become an integral part of the hospital culture.

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scroggins, Sharon

2008-01-01

NASA's Agency-wide.resource for identifying and managing risks associated with changing environmental regulations Goals of the RRAC PC: 1) Proactively. detect, analyze and communicate environmental regulatory risks to NASA Programs and facilities; 2) Communicate with regulators and participate in the mitigation of such risks; and 3) Provide centralized support on emerging regulations to NASA HQ Environmental Management Division. When significant regulatory changes are identified, timely communication is essential. Communication of changing requirements to the regulatory stakeholders - NASA Programs and Facilities. Communication of potential issues to management and, when appropriate, back to the regulating agency.

The Value of Risk Pooling for Mitigating Water Utility Financial Risks Arising From Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.; Hughes, J.; Eskaf, S.

2015-12-01

Water utilities across the United States face growing supply risks as demand growth and extreme weather events make water scarcity more common. As it has become more difficult and expensive to build new supply capacity to accommodate these events, many utility managers respond by either imposing conservation measures, which reduces revenues, or acquiring additional water from other sources, which increases costs. These actions lead to changing financial trends that are difficult to predict and that utilities are currently ill-equipped to manage. As a result, adaptation strategies and tools are being developed to reduce utility vulnerabilities, ensuring both financial stability and continued access to low cost financing, a critical consideration for a capital intensive industry. Previous work in this area has involved the development of utility specific financial hedging tools. However, the time and informational requirements associated with developing these individualized strategies may be a limiting factor for widespread implementation. The objective of this research is to develop more generalized hedging instruments that can be applied simultaneously to multiple utilities across the United States, thereby increasing the potential for widespread implementation. This work first analyzes the financial risks of water scarcity for a large set of water utilities across the country and then proposes a financial hedging solution to mitigate these risks through hydrologic index-based financial insurance. Results provide insights into the most effective indices, the potential for risk pooling to reduce insurance costs, and the performance of these contracts in managing utility financial risk arising from drought.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M

2010-04-01

This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE PAGES

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; ...

2015-10-28

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Douglas R.; Polk, James D.

2005-01-01

Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off-nominal mission events. 2.) The audience will understand the process by which medical hazards are identified and mitigated before launch. 3.) The audience will understand the roles and responsibilities of all the other flight control positions in participating in the process of reducing hazards and reducing medical risk to an acceptable level.

Hurricane risk mitigation - High Pressure Gas Facility

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-07-29

A worker pours concrete as part of a nitrogen risk mitigation project at the High Pressure Gas Facility at Stennis Space Center. The concrete slab will provide the foundation needed to place new pumps at the site and is part of ongoing hurricane-related mitigation work at Stennis.

Hurricane risk mitigation - High Pressure Gas Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

A worker pours concrete as part of a nitrogen risk mitigation project at the High Pressure Gas Facility at Stennis Space Center. The concrete slab will provide the foundation needed to place new pumps at the site and is part of ongoing hurricane-related mitigation work at Stennis.

Mapping the spatio-temporal risk of lead exposure in apex species for more effective mitigation

PubMed Central

Mateo-Tomás, Patricia; Olea, Pedro P.; Jiménez-Moreno, María; Camarero, Pablo R.; Sánchez-Barbudo, Inés S.; Rodríguez Martín-Doimeadios, Rosa C.; Mateo, Rafael

2016-01-01

Effective mitigation of the risks posed by environmental contaminants for ecosystem integrity and human health requires knowing their sources and spatio-temporal distribution. We analysed the exposure to lead (Pb) in griffon vulture Gyps fulvus—an apex species valuable as biomonitoring sentinel. We determined vultures' lead exposure and its main sources by combining isotope signatures and modelling analyses of 691 bird blood samples collected over 5 years. We made yearlong spatially explicit predictions of the species risk of lead exposure. Our results highlight elevated lead exposure of griffon vultures (i.e. 44.9% of the studied population, approximately 15% of the European, showed lead blood levels more than 200 ng ml−1) partly owing to environmental lead (e.g. geological sources). These exposures to environmental lead of geological sources increased in those vultures exposed to point sources (e.g. lead-based ammunition). These spatial models and pollutant risk maps are powerful tools that identify areas of wildlife exposure to potentially harmful sources of lead that could affect ecosystem and human health. PMID:27466455

Wildland-urban interface resident's views on risk and attribution

Treesearch

Patricia J. Cohn; Daniel R. Williams; Matthew S. Carroll

2008-01-01

Catastrophic wildfires that impact human communities have become increasingly common in recent years. To reduce the potential for damage to human communities, wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents have been encouraged to perform mitigation or fire-safing measures around their homes and communities. Yet homeowners have not wholeheartedly adopted these measures, even...

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Treesearch

M. A. Cochrane; C. J. Moran; M. C. Wimberly; A. D. Baer; M. A. Finney; K. L. Beckendorf; J. Eidenshink; Z. Zhu

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of...

Resource Management and Risk Mitigation in Online Storage Grids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Ye

2010-01-01

This dissertation examines the economic value of online storage resources that could be traded and shared as potential commodities and the consequential investments and deployment of such resources. The value proposition of emergent business models such as Akamai and Amazon S3 in online storage grids is capacity provision and content delivery at…

A decision support system for drinking water production integrating health risks assessment.

PubMed

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-07-18

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation.

Health incentive research and social justice: does the risk of long term harms to systematically disadvantaged groups bear consideration?

PubMed

Wild, Verina; Pratt, Bridget

2017-03-01

The ethics of health incentive research-a form of public health research-are not well developed, and concerns of justice have been least examined. In this paper, we explore what potential long term harms in relation to justice may occur as a result of such research and whether they should be considered as part of its ethical evaluation. 'Long term harms' are defined as harms that contribute to existing systematic patterns of disadvantage for groups. Their effects are experienced on a long term basis, persisting even once an incentive research project ends. We will first establish that three categories of such harms potentially arise as a result of health incentive interventions. We then argue that the risk of these harms also constitutes a morally relevant consideration for health incentive research and suggest who may be responsible for assessing and mitigating these risks. We propose that responsibility should be assigned on the basis of who initiates health incentive research projects. Finally, we briefly describe possible strategies to prevent or mitigate the risk of long term harms to members of disadvantaged groups, which can be employed during the design, conduct and dissemination of research projects. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

2014-01-01

Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paloski, W. H.; Francisco, D. R.; Davis, J. R.

2015-01-01

NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then assessed the likelihood and consequences of each risk against each DRM, using three levels of likelihood (Low: less than or equal to 0.1%; Medium: 0.1%–1.0%; High: greater than or equal to 1.0%) and four levels of consequence ranging from Very Low (temporary or insignificant) to High (death, loss of mission, or significant reduction to length or quality of life). Quantitative evidence from clinical, operational, and research sources were used whenever available. Qualitative evidence was used when quantitative evidence was unavailable. Expert opinion was used whenever insufficient evidence was available. Results: A set of 30 risks emerged that will require further mitigation efforts before being accepted by the Agency. The likelihood by consequence risk assessment process provided a means of prioritizing among the risks identified. For each of the high priority risks, a plan was developed to perform research, technology, or standards development thought necessary to provide suitable reduction of likelihood or consequence to allow agency acceptance. Conclusion: The HSRB process has successfully identified a complete set of risks to human space travelers on planned exploration missions based on the best evidence available today. Risk mitigation plans have been established for the highest priority risks. Each risk will be reassessed annually to track the progress of our risk mitigation efforts.

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

PubMed

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Treesearch

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

Framework and methodology for supply chain lifecycle analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamlet, Jason; Eames, Brandon K.; Kao, Gio K.

The various technologies presented herein relate to pertaining to identifying and mitigating risks and attacks on a supply chain. A computer-implemented representation of a supply chain is generated comprising nodes (locations) and edges (objects, information). Risk to attack and different attack vectors can be defined for the various nodes and edges, and further, based upon the risks and attacks, (difficulty, consequence) pairs can be determined. One or more mitigations can be generated to increase a difficulty of attack and/or reduce consequence of an attack. The one or more mitigations can be constrained, e.g., by cost, time, etc., to facilitate determinationmore » of how feasible a respective mitigation is to implement with regard to finances available, duration to implement, etc. A context-free grammar can be utilized to identify one or more attacks in the supply chain. Further, the risks can undergo a ranking to enable mitigation priority to be determined.« less

A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Victoria Katherine

In years past, aircraft conceptual design centered around creating a feasible aircraft that could be built and could fly the required missions. More recently, aircraft viability entered into conceptual design, allowing that the product's potential to be profitable should also be examined early in the design process. While examining an aerospace system's feasibility and viability early in the design process is extremely important, it is also important to examine system risk. In traditional aerospace systems risk analysis, risk is examined from the perspective of performance, schedule, and cost. Recently, safety and reliability analysis have been brought forward in the design process to also be examined during late conceptual and early preliminary design. While these analyses work as designed, existing risk analysis methods and techniques are not designed to examine an aerospace system's external operating environment and the risks present there. A new method has been developed here to examine, during the early part of concept design, the risk associated with not meeting assumptions about the system's external operating environment. The risks are examined in five categories: employment, culture, government and politics, economics, and technology. The risks are examined over a long time-period, up to the system's entire life cycle. The method consists of eight steps over three focus areas. The first focus area is Problem Setup. During problem setup, the problem is defined and understood to the best of the decision maker's ability. There are four steps in this area, in the following order: Establish the Need, Scenario Development, Identify Solution Alternatives, and Uncertainty and Risk Identification. There is significant iteration between steps two through four. Focus area two is Modeling and Simulation. In this area the solution alternatives and risks are modeled, and a numerical value for risk is calculated. A risk mitigation model is also created. The four steps involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

Density dependence governs when population responses to multiple stressors are magnified or mitigated.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Halpern, Benjamin S

2017-10-01

Population endangerment typically arises from multiple, potentially interacting anthropogenic stressors. Extensive research has investigated the consequences of multiple stressors on organisms, frequently focusing on individual life stages. Less is known about population-level consequences of exposure to multiple stressors, especially when exposure varies through life. We provide the first theoretical basis for identifying species at risk of magnified effects from multiple stressors across life history. By applying a population modeling framework, we reveal conditions under which population responses from stressors applied to distinct life stages are either magnified (synergistic) or mitigated. We find that magnification or mitigation critically depends on the shape of density dependence, but not the life stage in which it occurs. Stressors are always magnified when density dependence is linear or concave, and magnified or mitigated when it is convex. Using Bayesian numerical methods, we estimated the shape of density dependence for eight species across diverse taxa, finding support for all three shapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Health care worker decompression sickness: incidence, risk and mitigation.

PubMed

Clarke, Richard

2017-01-01

Inadvertent exposure to radiation, chemical agents and biological factors are well recognized hazards associated with the health care delivery system. Less well appreciated yet no less harmful is risk of decompression sickness in those who accompany patients as inside attendants (IAs) during provision of hyperbaric oxygen therapy. Unlike the above hazards where avoidance is practiced, IA exposure to decompression sickness risk is unavoidable. While overall incidence is low, when calculated as number of cases over number of exposures or potential for a case during any given exposure, employee cumulative risk, defined here as number of cases over number of IAs, or risk that an IA may suffer a case, is not. Commonly, this unique occupational environmental injury responds favorably to therapeutic recompression and a period of recuperation. There are, however, permanent and career-ending consequences, and at least two nurses have succumbed to their decompression insults. The intent of this paper is to heighten awareness of hyperbaric attendant decompression sickness. It will serve as a review of reported cases and reconcile incidence against largely ignored individual worker risk. Mitigation strategies are summarized and an approach to more precisely identify risk factors that might prompt development of consensus screening standards is proposed. Copyright© Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

PubMed

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

MO-D-213-02: Quality Improvement Through a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis of Pediatric External Beam Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gray, J; Lukose, R; Bronson, J

2015-06-15

Purpose: To conduct a failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) as per AAPM Task Group 100 on clinical processes associated with teletherapy, and the development of mitigations for processes with identified high risk. Methods: A FMEA was conducted on clinical processes relating to teletherapy treatment plan development and delivery. Nine major processes were identified for analysis. These steps included CT simulation, data transfer, image registration and segmentation, treatment planning, plan approval and preparation, and initial and subsequent treatments. Process tree mapping was utilized to identify the steps contained within each process. Failure modes (FM) were identified and evaluated with amore » scale of 1–10 based upon three metrics: the severity of the effect, the probability of occurrence, and the detectability of the cause. The analyzed metrics were scored as follows: severity – no harm = 1, lethal = 10; probability – not likely = 1, certainty = 10; detectability – always detected = 1, undetectable = 10. The three metrics were combined multiplicatively to determine the risk priority number (RPN) which defined the overall score for each FM and the order in which process modifications should be deployed. Results: Eighty-nine procedural steps were identified with 186 FM accompanied by 193 failure effects with 213 potential causes. Eighty-one of the FM were scored with a RPN > 10, and mitigations were developed for FM with RPN values exceeding ten. The initial treatment had the most FM (16) requiring mitigation development followed closely by treatment planning, segmentation, and plan preparation with fourteen each. The maximum RPN was 400 and involved target delineation. Conclusion: The FMEA process proved extremely useful in identifying previously unforeseen risks. New methods were developed and implemented for risk mitigation and error prevention. Similar to findings reported for adult patients, the process leading to the initial treatment has an associated high risk.« less

Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

2010-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns should focus on: (a) increasing tourists' knowledge of Katla, jökulhlaup and other volcanic hazards and (b) increasing tourist and employee awareness of the early warning and information system and appropriate behavioural response if a warning is issued. Further, tourism employees should be required to participate in emergency training and evacuation exercises annually. These efforts are timely given that Katla is expected to erupt in the near future and international tourism is an expanding industry in Þórsmörk.

Hydrological and thermal effects of hydropeaking on early life stages of salmonids: A modelling approach for implementing mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Casas-Mulet, Roser; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Alfredsen, Knut Tore

2016-12-15

Alterations in hydrological and thermal regimes can potentially affect salmonid early life stages development and survival. The dewatering of salmon spawning redds due to hydropeaking can lead to mortality in early life stages, with higher impact on the alevins as they have lower tolerance to dewatering than the eggs. Flow-related mitigation measures can reduce early life stage mortality. We present a set of modelling tools to assess impacts and mitigation options to minimise the risk of mortality in early life stages in hydropeaking rivers. We successfully modelled long-term hydrological and thermal alterations and consequences for development rates. We estimated the risk of early life stages mortality and assessed the cost-effectiveness of implementing three release-related mitigation options (A,B,C). The economic cost of mitigation was low and ranged between 0.7% and 2.6% of the annual hydropower production. Options reducing the flow during spawning (B and C) in addition to only release minimum flows during development (A) were considered more effective for egg and alevin survival. Options B and C were however constraint by water availability in the system for certain years, and therefore only option A was always feasible. The set of modelling tools used in this study were satisfactory and their applications can be useful especially in systems where little field data is available. Targeted measures built on well-informed modelling tools can be tested on their effectiveness to mitigate dewatering effects vs. the hydropower system capacity to release or conserve water for power production. Environmental flow releases targeting specific ecological objectives can provide better cost-effective options than conventional operational rules complying with general legislation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; Wing, David; Delahaye, Daniel

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Reducing environmental risk associated with laboratory decommissioning and property transfer.

PubMed

Dufault, R; Abelquist, E; Crooks, S; Demers, D; DiBerardinis, L; Franklin, T; Horowitz, M; Petullo, C; Sturchio, G

2000-12-01

The need for more or less space is a common laboratory problem. Solutions may include renovating existing space, leaving or demolishing old space, or acquiring new space or property for building. All of these options carry potential environmental risk. Such risk can be the result of activities related to the laboratory facility or property (e.g., asbestos, underground storage tanks, lead paint), or the research associated with it (e.g., radioactive, microbiological, and chemical contamination). Regardless of the option chosen to solve the space problem, the potential environmental risk must be mitigated and the laboratory space and/or property must be decommissioned or rendered safe prior to any renovation, demolition, or property transfer activities. Not mitigating the environmental risk through a decommissioning process can incur significant financial liability for any costs associated with future decommissioning cleanup activities. Out of necessity, a functioning system, environmental due diligence auditing, has evolved over time to assess environmental risk and reduce associated financial liability. This system involves a 4-phase approach to identify, document, manage, and clean up areas of environmental concern or liability, including contamination. Environmental due diligence auditing includes a) historical site assessment, b) characterization assessment, c) remedial effort and d) final status survey. General practice standards from the American Society for Testing and Materials are available for conducting the first two phases. However, standards have not yet been developed for conducting the third and final phases of the environmental due diligence auditing process. Individuals involved in laboratory decommissioning work in the biomedical research industry consider this a key weakness.

Reducing environmental risk associated with laboratory decommissioning and property transfer.

PubMed Central

Dufault, R; Abelquist, E; Crooks, S; Demers, D; DiBerardinis, L; Franklin, T; Horowitz, M; Petullo, C; Sturchio, G

2000-01-01

The need for more or less space is a common laboratory problem. Solutions may include renovating existing space, leaving or demolishing old space, or acquiring new space or property for building. All of these options carry potential environmental risk. Such risk can be the result of activities related to the laboratory facility or property (e.g., asbestos, underground storage tanks, lead paint), or the research associated with it (e.g., radioactive, microbiological, and chemical contamination). Regardless of the option chosen to solve the space problem, the potential environmental risk must be mitigated and the laboratory space and/or property must be decommissioned or rendered safe prior to any renovation, demolition, or property transfer activities. Not mitigating the environmental risk through a decommissioning process can incur significant financial liability for any costs associated with future decommissioning cleanup activities. Out of necessity, a functioning system, environmental due diligence auditing, has evolved over time to assess environmental risk and reduce associated financial liability. This system involves a 4-phase approach to identify, document, manage, and clean up areas of environmental concern or liability, including contamination. Environmental due diligence auditing includes a) historical site assessment, b) characterization assessment, c) remedial effort and d) final status survey. General practice standards from the American Society for Testing and Materials are available for conducting the first two phases. However, standards have not yet been developed for conducting the third and final phases of the environmental due diligence auditing process. Individuals involved in laboratory decommissioning work in the biomedical research industry consider this a key weakness. PMID:11121365

Lessons Learned and Process Improvement for Payload Operations at the Launch Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Catena, John; Gates, Donald, Jr.; Blaney, Kermit, Sr.; Obenschain, Arthur F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

For every space mission, there are challenges with the launch site/field operations process that are addressed too late in the development cycle. This potentially causes schedule delays, cost overruns, and adds risk to the mission success. This paper will discuss how a single interface, representing the payload at the launch site in all phases of development, will mitigate risk, and minimize or even alleviate potential problems later on. Experience has shown that a single interface between the project and the launch site allows for issues to be worked in a timely manner and bridges the gap between two diverse cultures.

Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risk of Single-Point Inspections on the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2004-01-01

In the production of each Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), over 100,000 inspections are performed. ATK Thiokol Inc. reviewed these inspections to ensure a robust inspection system is maintained. The principal effort within this endeavor was the systematic identification and evaluation of inspections considered to be single-point. Single-point inspections are those accomplished on components, materials, and tooling by only one person, involving no other check. The purpose was to more accurately characterize risk and ultimately address and/or mitigate risk associated with single-point inspections. After the initial review of all inspections and identification/assessment of single-point inspections, review teams applied risk prioritization methodology similar to that used in a Process Failure Modes Effects Analysis to derive a Risk Prioritization Number for each single-point inspection. After the prioritization of risk, all single-point inspection points determined to have significant risk were provided either with risk-mitigating actions or rationale for acceptance. This effort gave confidence to the RSRM program that the correct inspections are being accomplished, that there is appropriate justification for those that remain as single-point inspections, and that risk mitigation was applied to further reduce risk of higher risk single-point inspections. This paper examines the process, results, and lessons learned in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk associated with single-point inspections accomplished in the production of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Decision making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Canessa, Stefano; Bozzutto, Claudio; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Cruickshank, Sam S.; Fisher, Matthew C.; Koella, Jacob C.; Lotters, Stefan; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Scheele, Ben C.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Steinfartz, Sebastian; Schmidt, Benedikt R.

2018-01-01

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare.Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity.Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen.Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities.Synthesis and applications. Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivoransepidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori.

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

PubMed

Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C; Cisternas, Pamela C; Repetto, Paula B

2017-01-01

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and communities at risk.

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

PubMed Central

Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C.; Cisternas, Pamela C.; Repetto, Paula B.

2017-01-01

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and communities at risk. PMID:29088230

Ethical Concerns of and Risk Mitigation Strategies for Crowdsourcing Contests and Innovation Challenges: Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Pan, Stephen W; Mathews, Allison; Stein, Gabriella; Bayus, Barry; Rennie, Stuart

2018-01-01

Background Crowdsourcing contests (also called innovation challenges, innovation contests, and inducement prize contests) can be used to solicit multisectoral feedback on health programs and design public health campaigns. They consist of organizing a steering committee, soliciting contributions, engaging the community, judging contributions, recognizing a subset of contributors, and sharing with the community. Objective This scoping review describes crowdsourcing contests by stage, examines ethical problems at each stage, and proposes potential ways of mitigating risk. Methods Our analysis was anchored in the specific example of a crowdsourcing contest that our team organized to solicit videos promoting condom use in China. The purpose of this contest was to create compelling 1-min videos to promote condom use. We used a scoping review to examine the existing ethical literature on crowdsourcing to help identify and frame ethical concerns at each stage. Results Crowdsourcing has a group of individuals solve a problem and then share the solution with the public. Crowdsourcing contests provide an opportunity for community engagement at each stage: organizing, soliciting, promoting, judging, recognizing, and sharing. Crowdsourcing poses several ethical concerns: organizing—potential for excluding community voices; soliciting—potential for overly narrow participation; promoting—potential for divulging confidential information; judging—potential for biased evaluation; recognizing—potential for insufficient recognition of the finalist; and sharing—potential for the solution to not be implemented or widely disseminated. Conclusions Crowdsourcing contests can be effective and engaging public health tools but also introduce potential ethical problems. We present methods for the responsible conduct of crowdsourcing contests. PMID:29523500

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

A systematic checklist approach to immunosuppression risk management: An audit of practice at two clinical neuroimmunology centers.

PubMed

Mori, Amelia M; Agarwal, Smriti; Lee, Monique W M; Rafferty, Martina; Hardy, Todd A; Coles, Alasdair; Reddel, Stephen W; Riminton, D Sean

2017-11-15

There is no consensus approach to safety screening for immune intervention in clinical neuroimmunology. An immunosuppression risk evaluation checklist was used as an audit tool to assess real-world immunosuppression risk management and formulate recommendations for quality improvements in patient safety. Ninety-nine patients from two centres with 27 non-MS diagnoses were included. An average of 1.9 comorbidities with the potential to adversely impact morbidity and mortality associated with immunosuppression were identified. Diabetes and smoking were the most common, however a range of rarer but potentially life-threatening co-morbid disorders in the context of immunosuppression were identified. Inadequate documentation of risk mitigation tasks was common at 40.1% of total tasks across both cohorts. A routine, systematic immunosuppression checklist approach should be considered to improve immunosuppression risk management in clinical neuroimmunology practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mitigation of Collision Hazard for the International Space Station (ISS) from Globally Launched Objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Eric D.; Wilde, Paul D.

2013-09-01

For the International Space Station (ISS), it can take 6 to 24 hours to reliably catalog a newly disposed upper stage and up to 33 hours to plan and execute an avoidance maneuver. This creates a gap in the existing collision risk protection for newly launched vehicles, which covers the period when these launched objects are still under propulsive control; specifically, upper stage separation plus 100 minutes for most missions. This gap results in a vulnerability of the ISS from the end of current "Launch Collision Avoidance (COLA)" protection until approximately launch plus 56 hours.In order to help mitigate this gap, conjunction analyses are being developed that identify launch times when the disposed upper stage could violate safe separation distances from the ISS. Launch window cut-out times can be determined from the analysis and implemented to protect the ISS.The COLA Gap is considered to be a risk to ISS operations and vehicle safety. Methods can be used to mitigate the risk, but the criteria and process need to be established and developed in order to reduce operational disruptions and potential risk to ISS vehicle. New requirements and analytical methods can close the current COLA gap with minimal impact to typical launch windows for Geo-Transfer Orbit (GTO) and direct injection missions. Also, strategies can be established to produce common standards in the U.S. and the world to close the current Launch COLA gap.

Evaluating the Characteristics of Social Vulnerability to Wildfire: Demographics, Perceptions, and Parcel Characteristics.

PubMed

Paveglio, Travis B; Prato, Tony; Edgeley, Catrin; Nalle, Darek

2016-09-01

A large body of research focuses on identifying patterns of human populations most at risk from hazards and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. One common concept in such studies is social vulnerability-human populations' potential exposure to, sensitivity from and ability to reduce negative impacts from a hazard. While there is growing interest in social vulnerability for wildfire, few studies have critically evaluated the characteristics that scholars often indicate influence social vulnerability to that hazard. This research utilizes surveys, wildfire simulations, and GIS data to test the relationships between select demographic, perceptual and parcel characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for wildfire exposure or wildfire-related damages and their performance of mitigation actions. Our results from Flathead County, MT, USA, suggest that parcel characteristics such as property value, building value, and the year structures were built explaining a significant amount of the variance in elements of social vulnerability. Demographic characteristics commonly used in social vulnerability analysis did not have significant relationships with measures of wildfire exposure or vulnerability. Part-time or full-time residency, age, perceived property risk, and year of development were among the few significant determinants of residents' performance of fuel reduction mitigations, although the significance of these factors varied across the levels of fuel reduction performed by homeowners. We use these and other results to argue for a renewed focus on the finer-scale characteristics that expose some populations to wildfire risk more than others.

Evaluating the Characteristics of Social Vulnerability to Wildfire: Demographics, Perceptions, and Parcel Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paveglio, Travis B.; Prato, Tony; Edgeley, Catrin; Nalle, Darek

2016-09-01

A large body of research focuses on identifying patterns of human populations most at risk from hazards and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. One common concept in such studies is social vulnerability—human populations' potential exposure to, sensitivity from and ability to reduce negative impacts from a hazard. While there is growing interest in social vulnerability for wildfire, few studies have critically evaluated the characteristics that scholars often indicate influence social vulnerability to that hazard. This research utilizes surveys, wildfire simulations, and GIS data to test the relationships between select demographic, perceptual and parcel characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for wildfire exposure or wildfire-related damages and their performance of mitigation actions. Our results from Flathead County, MT, USA, suggest that parcel characteristics such as property value, building value, and the year structures were built explaining a significant amount of the variance in elements of social vulnerability. Demographic characteristics commonly used in social vulnerability analysis did not have significant relationships with measures of wildfire exposure or vulnerability. Part-time or full-time residency, age, perceived property risk, and year of development were among the few significant determinants of residents' performance of fuel reduction mitigations, although the significance of these factors varied across the levels of fuel reduction performed by homeowners. We use these and other results to argue for a renewed focus on the finer-scale characteristics that expose some populations to wildfire risk more than others.

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk.

PubMed

Martin, Gerardo; Yanez-Arenas, Carlos; Chen, Carla; Plowright, Raina K; Webb, Rebecca J; Skerratt, Lee F

2018-03-19

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.

A guide to understanding and implementing risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

PubMed

Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the components of the Congressional mandate for risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) managed by the Food and Drug Administration and assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplant arena. A non-date-limited search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-June 2012) was conducted by using the following search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, and organ transplant, including a query of the individual organs. Information from the Federal Register and the Food and Drug Administration was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. Elements of REMS programs may consist of 3 levels: a medication guide, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use. A medication guide is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patients' decision making, and enhance medication adherence. Communication plans help educate health care providers and encourage adherence with REMS. The elements to assure safe use is a restrictive process implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure safe access for patients to products with known serious risks. In transplant medicine, REMS currently exist for belatacept (medication guide and communication plan) and the mycophenolic acid derivatives (medication guide and elements to assure safe use). REMS are another step in the evolution of the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents. Use of REMS in solid-organ transplant is becoming common. Transplant clinicians must provide required patient education and become involved with other aspects of REMS implementation to reduce the serious risks of pharmaceuticals and to improve patients' outcomes.

Climate change and the effects of dengue upon Australia: An analysis of health impacts and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newth, D.; Gunasekera, D.

2010-08-01

Projected regional warming and climate change analysis and health impact studies suggest that Australia is potentially vulnerable to increased occurrence of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. Expansion of the dengue fever host, Aedes aegypti could potentially pose a significant public health risk. To manage such health risks, there is a growing need to focus on adaptive risk management strategies. In this paper, we combine analyses from climate, biophysical and economic models with a high resolution population model for disease spread, the EpiCast model to analyse the health impacts and costs of spread of dengue fever. We demonstrate the applicability of EpiCast as a decision support tool to evaluate mitigation strategies to manage the public health risks associated with shifts in the distribution of dengue fever in Australia.

A review of the health impacts of barium from natural and anthropogenic exposure.

PubMed

Kravchenko, Julia; Darrah, Thomas H; Miller, Richard K; Lyerly, H Kim; Vengosh, Avner

2014-08-01

There is an increasing public awareness of the relatively new and expanded industrial barium uses which are potential sources of human exposure (e.g., a shale gas development that causes an increased awareness of environmental exposures to barium). However, absorption of barium in exposed humans and a full spectrum of its health effects, especially among chronically exposed to moderate and low doses of barium populations, remain unclear. We suggest a systematic literature review (from 1875 to 2014) on environmental distribution of barium, its bioaccumulation, and potential and proven health impacts (in animal models and humans) to provide the information that can be used for optimization of future experimental and epidemiological studies and developing of mitigative and preventive strategies to minimize negative health effects in exposed populations. The potential health effects of barium exposure are largely based on animal studies, while epidemiological data for humans, specifically for chronic low-level exposures, are sparse. The reported health effects include cardiovascular and kidney diseases, metabolic, neurological, and mental disorders. Age, race, dietary patterns, behavioral risks (e.g., smoking), use of medications (those that interfere with absorbed barium in human organism), and specific physiological status (e.g., pregnancy) can modify barium effects on human health. Identifying, evaluating, and predicting the health effects of chronic low-level and moderate-level barium exposures in humans is challenging: Future research is needed to develop an understanding of barium bioaccumulation in order to mitigate its potential health impacts in various exposured populations. Further, while occupationally exposed at-risk populations exist, it is also important to identify potentially vulnerable subgroups among non-occupationally exposed populations (e.g., elderly, pregnant women, children) who are at higher risk of barium exposure from drinking water and food.

40 CFR 761.120 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... with the particular spill. These factors may mitigate expected exposures and risks or make cleanup to... spill situations in which site-specific risk factors may warrant additional cleanup to more stringent... numerical decontamination levels is clearly unwarranted because of risk-mitigating factors, that compliance...

40 CFR 761.120 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... with the particular spill. These factors may mitigate expected exposures and risks or make cleanup to... spill situations in which site-specific risk factors may warrant additional cleanup to more stringent... numerical decontamination levels is clearly unwarranted because of risk-mitigating factors, that compliance...

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary two-page assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence of that risk, available risk mitigations, traceability to the Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the Human Research Program, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets to provide the most economical and timely mitigations. The risk assessments were completed for the 6 DRMs and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB reviews each risk at least annually or when new evidence/information is available that adds to the body of evidence. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

Risk Adjustment for a Children's Capitation Rate

PubMed Central

Newhouse, Joseph P.; Sloss, Elizabeth M.; Manning, Willard G.; Keeler, Emmett B.

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual outpatient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping. PMID:10133708

Risk adjustment for a children's capitation rate.

PubMed

Newhouse, J P; Sloss, E M; Manning, W G; Keeler, E B

1993-01-01

Few capitation arrangements vary premiums by a child's health characteristics, yielding an incentive to discriminate against children with predictably high expenditures from chronic diseases. In this article, we explore risk adjusters for the 35 percent of the variance in annual out-patient expenditure we find to be potentially predictable. Demographic factors such as age and gender only explain 5 percent of such variance; health status measures explain 25 percent, prior use and health status measures together explain 65 to 70 percent. The profit from risk selection falls less than proportionately with improved ability to adjust for risk. Partial capitation rates may be necessary to mitigate skimming and dumping.

To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

2012-04-01

With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring and territorial survey and the stabilization of the open slopes with naturalistic engineering works. Much more debate was devoted to the relocation of residents from the most endangered areas and/or the need to build passive structural works, especially on private properties. Notwithstanding the difficulties in reaching a shared "compromise solution" for risk mitigation, the results demonstrate the value of citizen participation in landslide risk mitigation decisions and highlight the role that participation can play in risk management more generally.

Significant differences in pediatric psychotropic side effects: Implications for school performance.

PubMed

Kubiszyn, Thomas; Mire, Sarah; Dutt, Sonia; Papathopoulos, Katina; Burridge, Andrea Backsheider

2012-03-01

Some side effects (SEs) of increasingly prescribed psychotropic medications can impact student performance in school. SE risk varies, even among drugs from the same class (e.g., antidepressants). Knowing which SEs occur significantly more often than others may enable school psychologists to enhance collaborative risk-benefit analysis, medication monitoring, data-based decision-making, and inform mitigation efforts. SE data from Full Prescribing Information (PI) on the FDA website for ADHD drugs, atypical antipsychotics, and antidepressants with pediatric indications were analyzed. Risk ratios (RR) are reported for each drug within a category compared with placebo. RR tables and graphs inform the reader about SE incidence differences for each drug and provide clear evidence of the wide variability in SE incidence in the FDA data. Breslow-Day and Cochran Mantel-Haenszel methods were used to test for drug-placebo SE differences and to test for significance across drugs within each category based on odds ratios (ORs). Significant drug-placebo differences were found for each drug compared with placebo, when odds were pooled across all drugs in a category compared with placebo, and between some drugs within categories. Unexpectedly, many large RR differences did not reach significance. Potential explanations are offered, including limitations of the FDA data sets and statistical and methodological issues. Future research directions are offered. The potential impact of certain SEs on school performance, mitigation strategies, and the potential role of the school psychologist is discussed, with consideration for ethical and legal limitations. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Bone metabolism and renal stone risk during International Space Station missions.

PubMed

Smith, Scott M; Heer, Martina; Shackelford, Linda C; Sibonga, Jean D; Spatz, Jordan; Pietrzyk, Robert A; Hudson, Edgar K; Zwart, Sara R

2015-12-01

Bone loss and renal stone risk are longstanding concerns for astronauts. Bone resorption brought on by spaceflight elevates urinary calcium and the risk of renal stone formation. Loss of bone calcium leads to concerns about fracture risk and increased long-term risk of osteoporosis. Bone metabolism involves many factors and is interconnected with muscle metabolism and diet. We report here bone biochemistry and renal stone risk data from astronauts on 4- to 6-month International Space Station missions. All had access to a type of resistive exercise countermeasure hardware, either the Advanced Resistance Exercise Device (ARED) or the Interim Resistance Exercise Device (iRED). A subset of the ARED group also tested the bisphosphonate alendronate as a potential anti-resorptive countermeasure (Bis+ARED). While some of the basic bone marker data have been published, we provide here a more comprehensive evaluation of bone biochemistry with a larger group of astronauts. Regardless of exercise, the risk of renal stone formation increased during spaceflight. A key factor in this increase was urine volume, which was lower during flight in all groups at all time points. Thus, the easiest way to mitigate renal stone risk is to increase fluid consumption. ARED use increased bone formation without changing bone resorption, and mitigated a drop in parathyroid hormone in iRED astronauts. Sclerostin, an osteocyte-derived negative regulator of bone formation, increased 10-15% in both groups of astronauts who used the ARED (p<0.06). IGF-1, which regulates bone growth and formation, increased during flight in all 3 groups (p<0.001). Our results are consistent with the growing body of literature showing that the hyper-resorptive state of bone that is brought on by spaceflight can be countered pharmacologically or mitigated through an exercise-induced increase in bone formation, with nutritional support. Key questions remain about the effect of exercise-induced alterations in bone metabolism on bone strength and fracture risk. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Student Internalizing and Externalizing Behavior Screeners: Evidence for Reliability, Validity, and Usability in Elementary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartman, Kelsey; Gresham, Frank M.; Byrd, Shelby

2017-01-01

Universal screening for emotional and behavioral risk in schools facilitates early identification and intervention for students as part of multitiered systems of support. Early identification has the potential to mitigate adverse outcomes of emotional and behavioral disorders. The purpose of this study was to extend existing research on the…

Influence of forest roads and BMPs on soil erosion

Treesearch

J. McFero Grace; William J. Elliot

2011-01-01

Mitigating sediment export from the forest road prism and potential delivery to forest streams will require a more complete prospective on forest road erosion and benefit of BMPs in reducing the risk of degrading environmental impacts. Sediment control systems have clearly been presented as effective in minimizing sediment travel distances downslope and are likely the...

UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING THE HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS RESULTING FROM GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE FROM RECOGNITION OF POTENTIAL PROBLEMS TO CONCRETE MITIGATIVE ACTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

As a consequence of anthropogenic activities, we may double the pre-industrial concentration of atmospheric CO2 by the middle of this century. Anthropogenic activities have already doubled the amount of fixed nitrogen that cycles the globe, substantially increasing the flux of re...

75 FR 17181 - Order Extending Temporary Exemptions Under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 in Connection With...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-05

... CDS market, and thus can help mitigate potential systemic impact. We have therefore found that taking action to help foster the prompt development of CCPs, including granting temporary conditional exemptions... number of benefits by helping to promote efficiency and reduce risk in the CDS market, by contributing to...

Continuity of Landsat observations: Short term considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wulder, Michael A.; White, Joanne C.; Masek, Jeffery G.; Dwyer, John L.; Roy, David P.

2011-01-01

As of writing in mid-2010, both Landsat-5 and -7 continue to function, with sufficient fuel to enable data collection until the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) scheduled for December of 2012. Failure of one or both of Landsat-5 or -7 may result in a lack of Landsat data for a period of time until the 2012 launch. Although the potential risk of a component failure increases the longer the sensor's design life is exceeded, the possible gap in Landsat data acquisition is reduced with each passing day and the risk of Landsat imagery being unavailable diminishes for all except a handful of applications that are particularly data demanding. Advances in Landsat data compositing and fusion are providing opportunities to address issues associated with Landsat-7 SLC-off imagery and to mitigate a potential acquisition gap through the integration of imagery from different sensors. The latter will likely also provide short-term, regional solutions to application-specific needs for the continuity of Landsat-like observations. Our goal in this communication is not to minimize the community's concerns regarding a gap in Landsat observations, but rather to clarify how the current situation has evolved and provide an up-to-date understanding of the circumstances, implications, and mitigation options related to a potential gap in the Landsat data record.

Afghan National Police Training Program: Lessons Learned During the Transition of Contract Administration

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-15

coordinated transition requirements; • identifying and completing inherently governmental tasks; • conducting risk assessments and developing risk ...conducted risk assessments and developed risk mitigation strategies, defined metrics, and established a council of senior officials to oversee and... assessment to identify sources of risk that may affect the transition, and mitigation strategies to address those risks , which could help minimize the

Introduction to Software Product Line Adoption

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

plans • improvement suggestions • risks and mitigation strategies • progress reports • risks and mitigation strategies • adoption plan • funding ... model • organization chart • product line concept of operations (CONOPS) • marketing plan • product proposals • acquisition strategy • organization risk

Seawater intrusion risk analysis under climate change conditions for the Gaza Strip aquifer (Palestine)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dentoni, Marta; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Lecca, Giuditta

2014-05-01

Seawater intrusion (SWI) has become a major threat to coastal freshwater resources, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, where this problem is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate groundwater resources management and with serious potential impacts from projected climate changes. A proper analysis and risk assessment that includes climate scenarios is essential for the design of water management measures to mitigate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SWI. In this study a methodology for SWI risk analysis in coastal aquifers is developed and applied to the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer in Palestine. The method is based on the origin-pathway-target model, evaluating the final value of SWI risk by applying the overlay principle to the hazard map (representing the origin of SWI), the vulnerability map (representing the pathway of groundwater flow) and the elements map (representing the target of SWI). Results indicate the important role of groundwater simulation in SWI risk assessment and illustrate how mitigation measures can be developed according to predefined criteria to arrive at quantifiable expected benefits. Keywords: Climate change, coastal aquifer, seawater intrusion, risk analysis, simulation/optimization model. Acknowledgements. The study is partially funded by the project "Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB)", FP7-ENV-2009-1, GA 244151.

Protect Thy Neighbor: Investigating the Spatial Externalities of Community Wildfire Hazard Mitigation

Treesearch

David Butry; Geoffrey Donovan

2008-01-01

Climate change, increased wildland fuels, and residential development patterns in fire-prone areas all combine to make wildfire risk mitigation an important public policy issue. One approach to wildfire risk mitigation is to encourage homeowners to use fire-resistant building materials and to create defensible spaces around their homes. We develop a theoretical model...

California Dept. of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) Update of the Schools Naturally Occurring Asbestos Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowski, M.

2012-12-01

Prior to acquisition and/or construction of prospective school sites, the California Education Code mandates that school districts complete environmental assessments and cleanups for prospective new or expanding school sites in order to qualify for state funding. If prospective school sites are determined to have environmental contamination from hazardous materials, including naturally occurring hazardous materials such as naturally occurring asbestos (NOA), where there may be unacceptable potential health risks, the school sites must be properly mitigated prior to occupancy for protection of human health and the environment. NOA is of special concern for schools, because children who are exposed to asbestos may be at increased risk of developing asbestos-related diseases over time. In order to protect human health, the Department of Toxic Substances Control's (DTSC) goals at school sites are to: 1) identify the presence of NOA in school site soils using exposure-reducing soil thresholds; 2) manage potential NOA exposures using mitigation measures to reduce generation of airborne asbestos fibers from soils on school sites; and 3) ensure long-term monitoring and protection of mitigation measures via Operations & Maintenance activities. DTSC is currently in the process of revising its Interim Guidance Naturally Occurring Asbestos (NOA) at School Sites - September 2004. The revisions include: 1) updating the guidance to consider incremental sampling for use at NOA sites in consultation with DTSC's project manager and technical staff, and 2) documenting a tiered approach to addressing high and low activity areas on a school.

The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation

PubMed Central

Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Levin, Simon

2015-01-01

Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost—in lost production or consumption, for example. Whether private mitigation yields net social benefits depends on the social weight given to the costs of illness and illness avoidance, now and into the future. We show that, for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially beneficial. However, in cases where society discounts the future at either very low or very high rates relative to private individuals, or where it places a low weight on the private cost of illness, the social cost of illness under proportionate mixing (doing nothing) may be lower than the social cost of illness under preferential mixing (avoiding infectious individuals). That is, under some circumstances, society would prefer shorter, more intense epidemics without avoidance costs over longer, less intense epidemics with avoidance costs. A sobering (although not surprising) implication of this is that poorer societies should be expected to promote less private disease-risk mitigation than richer societies. PMID:26858777

The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation.

PubMed

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Levin, Simon

2015-11-01

Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost-in lost production or consumption, for example. Whether private mitigation yields net social benefits depends on the social weight given to the costs of illness and illness avoidance, now and into the future. We show that, for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially beneficial. However, in cases where society discounts the future at either very low or very high rates relative to private individuals, or where it places a low weight on the private cost of illness, the social cost of illness under proportionate mixing (doing nothing) may be lower than the social cost of illness under preferential mixing (avoiding infectious individuals). That is, under some circumstances, society would prefer shorter, more intense epidemics without avoidance costs over longer, less intense epidemics with avoidance costs. A sobering (although not surprising) implication of this is that poorer societies should be expected to promote less private disease-risk mitigation than richer societies.

Failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree analysis of surface image guided cranial radiosurgery.

PubMed

Manger, Ryan P; Paxton, Adam B; Pawlicki, Todd; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2015-05-01

Surface image guided, Linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS) is a modern approach for delivering radiosurgery that utilizes optical stereoscopic imaging to monitor the surface of the patient during treatment in lieu of using a head frame for patient immobilization. Considering the novelty of the SIG-RS approach and the severity of errors associated with delivery of large doses per fraction, a risk assessment should be conducted to identify potential hazards, determine their causes, and formulate mitigation strategies. The purpose of this work is to investigate SIG-RS using the combined application of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA), report on the effort required to complete the analysis, and evaluate the use of FTA in conjunction with FMEA. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to conduct the FMEA on the SIG-RS process. A process map detailing the steps of the SIG-RS was created to guide the FMEA. Failure modes were determined for each step in the SIG-RS process, and risk priority numbers (RPNs) were estimated for each failure mode to facilitate risk stratification. The failure modes were ranked by RPN, and FTA was used to determine the root factors contributing to the riskiest failure modes. Using the FTA, mitigation strategies were formulated to address the root factors and reduce the risk of the process. The RPNs were re-estimated based on the mitigation strategies to determine the margin of risk reduction. The FMEA and FTAs for the top two failure modes required an effort of 36 person-hours (30 person-hours for the FMEA and 6 person-hours for two FTAs). The SIG-RS process consisted of 13 major subprocesses and 91 steps, which amounted to 167 failure modes. Of the 91 steps, 16 were directly related to surface imaging. Twenty-five failure modes resulted in a RPN of 100 or greater. Only one of these top 25 failure modes was specific to surface imaging. The riskiest surface imaging failure mode had an overall RPN-rank of eighth. Mitigation strategies for the top failure mode decreased the RPN from 288 to 72. Based on the FMEA performed in this work, the use of surface imaging for monitoring intrafraction position in Linac-based stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) did not greatly increase the risk of the Linac-based SRS process. In some cases, SIG helped to reduce the risk of Linac-based RS. The FMEA was augmented by the use of FTA since it divided the failure modes into their fundamental components, which simplified the task of developing mitigation strategies.

Radiation in medicine: Origins, risks and aspirations

PubMed Central

Donya, Mohamed; Radford, Mark; ElGuindy, Ahmed; Firmin, David; Yacoub, Magdi H.

2014-01-01

The use of radiation in medicine is now pervasive and routine. From their crude beginnings 100 years ago, diagnostic radiology, nuclear medicine and radiation therapy have all evolved into advanced techniques, and are regarded as essential tools across all branches and specialties of medicine. The inherent properties of ionizing radiation provide many benefits, but can also cause potential harm. Its use within medical practice thus involves an informed judgment regarding the risk/benefit ratio. This judgment requires not only medical knowledge, but also an understanding of radiation itself. This work provides a global perspective on radiation risks, exposure and mitigation strategies. PMID:25780797

Radiation in medicine: Origins, risks and aspirations.

PubMed

Donya, Mohamed; Radford, Mark; ElGuindy, Ahmed; Firmin, David; Yacoub, Magdi H

2014-01-01

The use of radiation in medicine is now pervasive and routine. From their crude beginnings 100 years ago, diagnostic radiology, nuclear medicine and radiation therapy have all evolved into advanced techniques, and are regarded as essential tools across all branches and specialties of medicine. The inherent properties of ionizing radiation provide many benefits, but can also cause potential harm. Its use within medical practice thus involves an informed judgment regarding the risk/benefit ratio. This judgment requires not only medical knowledge, but also an understanding of radiation itself. This work provides a global perspective on radiation risks, exposure and mitigation strategies.

Rockfall hazard assessment, risk quantification, and mitigation options for reef cove resort development, False Cape, Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlotfeldt, P.

2009-04-01

GIS and 2-D rock fall simulations were used as the primary tools during a rock fall hazard assessment and analyses for a major resort and township development near Cairns, Queensland in Australia. The methods used included 1) the development of a digital elevation model (DEM); undertaking rock fall trajectory analyses to determine the end points of rockfalls, the distribution of kinetic energy for identified rock fall runout Zones, and 3) undertaking event tree analyses based on a synthesis of all data in order to establish Zones with the highest risk of fatalities. This paper describes the methodology used and the results of this work. Recommendations to mitigate the hazard included having exclusions zones with no construction, scaling (including trim blasting), construction of berms and rockfall catch fences. Keywords: GIS, rockfall simulation, rockfall runout Zones, mitigation options INTRODUCTION False Cape is located on the east side of the Trinity inlet near Cairns (Figure 1). Construction is underway for a multi-million dollar development close the beach front. The development will ultimately cover about 1.5 km of prime coast line. The granite slopes above the development are steep and are covered with a number of large, potentially unstable boulders. Sheet jointing is present in the in-situ bedrock and these combined with other tectonic joint sets have provided a key mechanism for large side down slope on exposed bedrock. With each rock fall (evidence by boulders strew in gullies, over the lower parts of the slope, and on the beach) the failure mechanism migrates upslope. In order for the Developer to proceed with construction he needs to mitigate the identified rock fall hazard. The method used to study the hazard and key finding are presented in this paper. Discussion is provided in the conclusion on mitigation options. KEY METHODS USED TO STUDY THE HAZARD In summary the methods used to study the hazard for the False Cape project include; 1. The development of a digital elevation model (DEM) used to delineate rock fall runout Zones [1] that included the spatial location of boulder fields mapped within Zones(Figure 2). A Zone is defined as an area above the development on steep sided slopes where falling rocks are channeled into gullies / and or are contained between topographic features such as ridges and spurs that extend down the mountainside. These natural barriers generally ensure that falling rocks do not fall or roll into adjacent Zones; 2. The use of ‘Flow Path Tracing Tool' in Arc GIS spatial analyst to confirm typical descents of boulders in Zones. These were shown to correlated strongly with the endpoints of boulders observed within the development and major clusters of boulders on the beach front; 3. The use of 2-D rockfall trajectory analyses [2] using sections cut along typical 3-D trajectory paths mapped out in ARC GIS per Zone. Sections along typical paths in Zones simulated, to some degree, the 3-D affect or path of rocks as they bounce roll down slope (Figure 3); 4. The calibration of rockfall input parameters (coefficients of normal and tangential restitution, slope roughness, friction angle, etc.) using field identified endpoints and size of fallen rock and boulder; and 5. Undertaking risk evolutions in order to quantify the potential risk for each independent rockfall Zone. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE STUDIES The key findings from the study include; 1. Multiple potentially unstable in-situ boulders (some in excess of several thousand tonnes) are present above the development. 2. Similar geological structures (dykes, jointing, etc.) are present in the boulders on the beach front and within the development exposed in-situ bedrock located above the development. Measurement and comparison of the orientation of these geological structures present in boulders with that observed in the in-situ bedrock provided strong evidence that that the boulders have mitigated down slope. 3. Eight discrete Rockfall Runout Zones were identified using the digital elevation model set up in ARC GIS (Figure 4). The boundaries were field verified as far as possible. The identified Zones formed the basis of all subsequent work. 4. Once calibrated the rockfall trajectory modeling showed that only between 1% and in the worst case 28% of falling rocks (percentage of 1000 seeding events) per Zones would actually reach the development. While this indicated a reduced likelihood of an incident and hence the risk, the kinetic energy in the case of an impact in most Zones was so high (for the given design block size) that the consequence would be untenable without some form of mitigation. 5. An event tree analysis showed that five out of the eight Zones identified had risk profiles that fell above or very close to what was considered to be an acceptable annual probability of occurrence of a fatality or fatalities. CONCLUSIONS Each Zone has unique characteristics that influence the risk profile associated with the rock fall hazard to the development. Mitigation options and recommendations needed to be adjusted accordingly to fit the physical characteristics and assessed risk profile of each Zone. These included: 1. The possible implantation of exclusion zones (no build areas); 2. Scaling (including controlled blasting) to reduce the potential kinetic energy associated with identified potentially unstable boulders; and 3. The design and construction of Berms and rockfall catch fences.

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a brief description, guidance on design, schematic details, practical examples and references for each mitigation measure. Each of the measures was given a score on its ability and applicability for different types of landslides and boundary conditions, and a decision support matrix was established. The web-based toolbox organizes the information in the compendium and provides an algorithm to rank the measures on the basis of the decision support matrix, and on the basis of the risk level estimated at the site. The toolbox includes a description of the case under study and offers a simplified option for estimating the hazard and risk levels of the slide at hand. The user selects the mitigation measures to be included in the assessment. The toolbox then ranks, with built-in assessment factors and weights and/or with user-defined ranking values and criteria, the mitigation measures included in the analysis. The toolbox includes data management, e.g. saving data half-way in an analysis, returning to an earlier case, looking up prepared examples or looking up information on mitigation measures. The toolbox also generates a report and has user-forum and help features. The presentation will give an overview of the mitigation measures considered and examples of the use of the toolbox, and will take the attendees through the application of the toolbox.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-02-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

2005-07-01

The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

NASA Langley Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Technology Assessment/Portfolio Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavanaugh, Stephen; Chytka, Trina; Arcara, Phil; Jones, Sharon; Stanley, Doug; Wilhite, Alan W.

2006-01-01

Systems analysis develops and documents candidate mission and architectures, associated system concepts, enabling capabilities and investment strategies to achieve NASA s strategic objectives. The technology assessment process connects the mission and architectures to the investment strategies. In order to successfully implement a technology assessment, there is a need to collect, manipulate, analyze, document, and disseminate technology-related information. Information must be collected and organized on the wide variety of potentially applicable technologies, including: previous research results, key technical parameters and characteristics, technology readiness levels, relationships to other technologies, costs, and potential barriers and risks. This information must be manipulated to facilitate planning and documentation. An assessment is included of the programmatic and technical risks associated with each technology task as well as potential risk mitigation plans. Risks are assessed and tracked in terms of likelihood of the risk occurring and consequences of the risk if it does occur. The risk assessments take into account cost, schedule, and technical risk dimensions. Assessment data must be simplified for presentation to decision makers. The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center has a wealth of experience in performing Technology Assessment and Portfolio Analysis as this has been a business line since 1978.

Pediatric Predispositional Genetic Risk Communication: Potential Utility for Prevention and Control of Melanoma Risk as an Exemplar.

PubMed

Wu, Yelena P; Mays, Darren; Kohlmann, Wendy; Tercyak, Kenneth P

2017-10-01

Predispositional genetic testing among minor children is intensely debated due to the potential benefits and harms of providing this type of genetic information to children and their families. Existing guidelines on pediatric genetic testing state that predispositional testing could be appropriate for minors if preventive services exist that mitigate children's risk for or severity of the health condition in question. We use the example of hereditary melanoma to illustrate the rationale for and potential application of genetic risk communication for an adult-onset cancer to a pediatric population where childhood behaviors may reduce risk of disease later in life. We draw from the adult melanoma genetic risk communication and pediatric health behavior change literatures to suggest ways in which genetic test reporting and complementary education could be delivered to children who carry a hereditary risk for melanoma and their families in order to foster children's engagement in melanoma preventive behaviors. Genetic discoveries will continue to yield new opportunities to provide predispositional genetic risk information to unaffected individuals, including children, and could be delivered within programs that provide personalized and translational approaches to cancer prevention.

Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits.

PubMed

Ebeling, Johannes; Yasué, Maï

2008-05-27

Recent proposals to compensate developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) under forthcoming climate change mitigation regimes are receiving increasing attention. Here we demonstrate that if RED credits were traded on international carbon markets, even moderate decreases in deforestation rates could generate billions of Euros annually for tropical forest conservation. We also discuss the main challenges for a RED mechanism that delivers real climatic benefits. These include providing sufficient incentives while only rewarding deforestation reductions beyond business-as-usual scenarios, addressing risks arising from forest degradation and international leakage, and ensuring permanence of emission reductions. Governance may become a formidable challenge for RED because some countries with the highest RED potentials score poorly on governance indices. In addition to climate mitigation, RED funds could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development. However, this will probably require targeted additional support because the highest biodiversity threats and human development needs may exist in countries that have limited income potentials from RED. In conclusion, how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities.

Perioperative hair removal: A review of best practice and a practice improvement opportunity.

PubMed

Spencer, Maureen; Barnden, Marsha; Johnson, Helen Boehm; Fauerbach, Loretta Litz; Graham, Denise; Edmiston, Charles E

2018-06-01

The current practice of perioperative hair removal reflects research-driven changes designed to minimize the risk of surgical wound infection. An aspect of the practice which has received less scrutiny is the clean-up of the clipped hair. This process is critical. The loose fibers represent a potential infection risk because of the micro-organisms they can carry, but their clean-up can pose a logistical problem because of the time required to remove them. Research has demonstrated that the most commonly employed means of clean-up, the use of adhesive tape or sticky mitts, can be both ineffective and time-consuming in addition to posing an infection risk from cross-contamination. Recently published research evaluating surgical clippers fitted with a vacuum-assisted hair collection device highlights the potential for significant practice improvement in the perioperative hair removal clean-up process. These improvements include not only further mitigation of potential infection risk but also substantial OR time and cost savings.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Surgery: Quality Improvement Imperatives and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Goldman, Julie L.

2014-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is more common in surgical candidates than in the general population and may increase susceptibility to perioperative complications that range from transient desaturation to catastrophic injuries. Understanding the potential impact of OSA on patients’ surgical risk profile is of particular interest to otolaryngologists, who routinely perform airway procedures—including surgical procedures for treatment of OSA. Whereas the effects of OSA on long-term health outcomes are well documented, the relationship between OSA and surgical risk is not collinear, and clear consensus on the nature of the association is lacking. Better guidelines for optimization of pain control, perioperative monitoring, and surgical decision making are potential areas for quality improvement efforts. Many interventions have been suggested to mitigate the risk of adverse events in surgical patients with OSA, but wide variations in clinical practice remain. We review the current literature, emphasizing recent progress in understanding the complex pathophysiologic interactions noted in OSA patients undergoing surgery and outlining potential strategies to decrease perioperative risks. PMID:25013745

77 FR 39699 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

... Budget (OMB). Before submitting the ICR, titled: ``Soil Fumigant Risk Mitigation'' and identified by EPA..., soil fumigant registrants, state and tribal lead agencies, and EPA. Title: Soil Fumigant Risk... ensure that risk mitigation measures necessary for reregistration eligibility for certain soil fumigant...

Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.

PubMed

Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

2014-05-01

Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

73 6.10. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 1 Mitigation of...6.11. Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Cost Distribution, Technology 3 Mitigation of the Upgrade Alternative...courses of action, or risk- mitigation behaviors, which take place in the event that the technology is not developed by the mile- stone date (e.g

78 FR 57467 - Importation of Mangoes From Australia Into the Continental United States

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-19

... only and would have to be treated by irradiation to mitigate the risk of the mango seed weevil and... and to be treated by irradiation to mitigate the risk of the mango seed weevil and fruit flies. We... irradiation treatment to mitigate C. rubens. We proposed to require mangoes to be treated by irradiation for...

How Green is 'Green' Energy?

PubMed

Gibson, Luke; Wilman, Elspeth N; Laurance, William F

2017-12-01

Renewable energy is an important piece of the puzzle in meeting growing energy demands and mitigating climate change, but the potentially adverse effects of such technologies are often overlooked. Given that climate and ecology are inextricably linked, assessing the effects of energy technologies requires one to consider their full suite of global environmental concerns. We review here the ecological impacts of three major types of renewable energy - hydro, solar, and wind energy - and highlight some strategies for mitigating their negative effects. All three types can have significant environmental consequences in certain contexts. Wind power has the fewest and most easily mitigated impacts; solar energy is comparably benign if designed and managed carefully. Hydropower clearly has the greatest risks, particularly in certain ecological and geographical settings. More research is needed to assess the environmental impacts of these 'green' energy technologies, given that all are rapidly expanding globally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

PubMed Central

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-01

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634

Managing Research in a Risk World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.

2014-01-01

The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

PubMed

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

2015-03-01

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Projecting Age-Stratified Risk of Exposure to Inland Flooding and Wildfire Smoke in the United States under Two Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Mills, David; Jones, Russell; Wobus, Cameron; Ekstrom, Julia; Jantarasami, Lesley; St Juliana, Alexis; Crimmins, Allison

2018-04-17

The public health community readily recognizes flooding and wildfires as climate-related health hazards, but few studies quantify changes in risk of exposure, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. This study quantifies future populations potentially exposed to inland flooding and wildfire smoke under two climate scenarios, highlighting the populations in particularly vulnerable age groups (≤4 y old and ≥65 y old). Spatially explicit projections of inland flooding and wildfire under two representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) are integrated with static (2010) and dynamic (2050 and 2090) age-stratified projections of future contiguous U.S. populations at the county level. In both 2050 and 2090, an additional one-third of the population will live in areas affected by larger and more frequent inland flooding under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. Approximately 15 million children and 25 million older adults could avoid this increased risk of flood exposure each year by 2090 under a moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5 compared with RCP8.5). We also find reduced exposure to wildfire smoke under the moderate mitigation scenario. Nearly 1 million young children and 1.7 million older adults would avoid exposure to wildfire smoke each year under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. By integrating climate-driven hazard and population projections, newly created county-level exposure maps identify locations of potential significant future public health risk. These potential exposure results can help inform actions to prevent and prepare for associated future adverse health outcomes, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2594.

A risk-based approach for identifying constituents of concern in oil sands process-affected water from the Athabasca Oil Sands region.

PubMed

McQueen, Andrew D; Kinley, Ciera M; Hendrikse, Maas; Gaspari, Daniel P; Calomeni, Alyssa J; Iwinski, Kyla J; Castle, James W; Haakensen, Monique C; Peru, Kerry M; Headley, John V; Rodgers, John H

2017-04-01

Mining leases in the Athabasca Oil Sands (AOS) region produce large volumes of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) containing constituents that limit beneficial uses and discharge into receiving systems. The aim of this research is to identify constituents of concern (COCs) in OSPW sourced from an active settling basin with the goal of providing a sound rational for developing mitigation strategies for using constructed treatment wetlands for COCs contained in OSPW. COCs were identified through several lines of evidence: 1) chemical and physical characterization of OSPW and comparisons with numeric water quality guidelines and toxicity endpoints, 2) measuring toxicity of OSPW using a taxonomic range of sentinel organisms (i.e. fish, aquatic invertebrates, and a macrophyte), 3) conducting process-based manipulations (PBMs) of OSPW to alter toxicity and inform treatment processes, and 4) discerning potential treatment pathways to mitigate ecological risks of OSPW based on identification of COCs, toxicological analyses, and PBM results. COCs identified in OSPW included organics (naphthenic acids [NAs], oil and grease [O/G]), metals/metalloids, and suspended solids. In terms of species sensitivities to undiluted OSPW, fish ≥ aquatic invertebrates > macrophytes. Bench-scale manipulations of the organic fractions of OSPW via PBMs (i.e. H 2 O 2 +UV 254 and granular activated charcoal treatments) eliminated toxicity to Ceriodaphnia dubia (7-8 d), in terms of mortality and reproduction. Results from this study provide critical information to inform mitigation strategies using passive or semi-passive treatment processes (e.g., constructed treatment wetlands) to mitigate ecological risks of OSPW to aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability in pesticides residues--the US experience.

PubMed

Suhre, F B

2000-07-01

The evolution of US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) process for estimating potential health risks from pesticide residues in or on food is examined in light of changes in US Legislation and the variability of residue data and assumptions used to estimate dietary exposure. In the 86 years since enactment of the Insecticide Act, pesticide laws have become progressively more health-based. Passage of the 1996 Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) requires EPA to place particular emphasis on assessing potential risk from pesticides to infants and children. Primary factors affecting the actual pesticide residues in food include frequency of application, percentage of crop treated, and the interval from treatment to harvest. Primary factors affecting the estimated pesticide residues in food include the source of the residue data, calculation techniques for non-detected residues, and the availability of data reflecting post-harvest treatments. Risk assessors must thoroughly consider these factors when assessing dietary risk to pesticides. Risk managers will need to consider these factors as a means of mitigating dietary risk from pesticides.

Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

PubMed

Ofungwu, Joseph

2005-04-01

A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David P.

2004-01-01

A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector

PubMed Central

Hagerman, Shannon; Kozak, Robert; Hoberg, George

2018-01-01

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia’s forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors. PMID:29684041

Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector.

PubMed

Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume; Hagerman, Shannon; Kozak, Robert; Hoberg, George

2018-01-01

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia's forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors.

75 FR 63732 - Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations, Designated Contract Markets, and Swap...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-18

... governance of certain DCOs, DCMs, or SEFs or to mitigate systemic risk, promote competition, or mitigate... the clearinghouses to reduce systemic risk, we have the banks now owning the clearinghouses. The... subject to [the CEA] and the avoidance of systemic risk.'' \\20\\ Clearing members contribute substantial...

A new methodology to identify surface water bodies at risk by using pesticide monitoring data: The glyphosate case study in Lombardy Region (Italy).

PubMed

Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

2018-01-01

In the last decades, several monitoring programs were established as an effect of EU Directives addressing the quality of water resources (drinking water, groundwater and surface water). Plant Protection Products (PPPs) are an obvious target of monitoring activities, since they are directly released into the environment. One of the challenges in managing the risk of pesticides at the territorial scale is identifying the locations in water bodies needing implementation of risk mitigation measures. In this, the national pesticides monitoring plans could be very helpful. However, monitoring of pesticides is a challenging task because of the high number of registered pesticides, cost of analyses, and the periodicity of sampling related to pesticide application and use. Extensive high-quality data-sets are consequently often missing. More in general, the information that can be obtained from monitoring studies are frequently undervalued by risk managers. In this study, we propose a new methodology providing indications about the need to implement mitigation measures in stretches of surface water bodies on a territory by combining historical series of monitoring data and GIS. The methodology is articulated in two distinct phases: a) acquisition of monitoring data and setting-up of informative layers of georeferenced data (phase 1) and b) statistical and expert analysis for the identification of areas where implementation of limitation or mitigation measures are suggested (phase 2). Our methodology identifies potentially vulnerable water bodies, considering temporal contamination trends and relative risk levels at selected monitoring stations. A case study is presented considering glyphosate monitoring data in Lombardy Region (Northern of Italy) for the 2008-2014 period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impacts of federal forest planning on wildfire risk-mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Karen C. Short; Cody R. Evers

2016-01-01

We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to...

Harmonising the Efforts of School Nurses and Teachers in Health Promotion in Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwatubana, Siphokazi

2018-01-01

A vital facet that adds value to schools is the partnership between the departments of education and health at national level. At the heart of making this partnership effective in order to achieve its potential is the need for synchronisation of the roles of school nurses and teachers to mitigate sustainability risks. In order to investigate the…

Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

PubMed

Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

2014-01-01

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

A code inspection process for security reviews

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garzoglio, Gabriele; /Fermilab

2009-05-01

In recent years, it has become more and more evident that software threat communities are taking an increasing interest in Grid infrastructures. To mitigate the security risk associated with the increased numbers of attacks, the Grid software development community needs to scale up effort to reduce software vulnerabilities. This can be achieved by introducing security review processes as a standard project management practice. The Grid Facilities Department of the Fermilab Computing Division has developed a code inspection process, tailored to reviewing security properties of software. The goal of the process is to identify technical risks associated with an application andmore » their impact. This is achieved by focusing on the business needs of the application (what it does and protects), on understanding threats and exploit communities (what an exploiter gains), and on uncovering potential vulnerabilities (what defects can be exploited). The desired outcome of the process is an improvement of the quality of the software artifact and an enhanced understanding of possible mitigation strategies for residual risks. This paper describes the inspection process and lessons learned on applying it to Grid middleware.« less

A code inspection process for security reviews

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzoglio, Gabriele

2010-04-01

In recent years, it has become more and more evident that software threat communities are taking an increasing interest in Grid infrastructures. To mitigate the security risk associated with the increased numbers of attacks, the Grid software development community needs to scale up effort to reduce software vulnerabilities. This can be achieved by introducing security review processes as a standard project management practice. The Grid Facilities Department of the Fermilab Computing Division has developed a code inspection process, tailored to reviewing security properties of software. The goal of the process is to identify technical risks associated with an application and their impact. This is achieved by focusing on the business needs of the application (what it does and protects), on understanding threats and exploit communities (what an exploiter gains), and on uncovering potential vulnerabilities (what defects can be exploited). The desired outcome of the process is an improvement of the quality of the software artifact and an enhanced understanding of possible mitigation strategies for residual risks. This paper describes the inspection process and lessons learned on applying it to Grid middleware.

Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

PubMed Central

Shikha

2014-01-01

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater. PMID:25374935

The impact of health changes on labor supply: evidence from merged data on individual objective medical diagnosis codes and early retirement behavior.

PubMed

Christensen, Bent Jesper; Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene

2012-06-01

The justification bias in the estimated impact of health shocks on retirement is mitigated by using objective health measures from a large, register-based longitudinal data set including medical diagnosis codes, along with labor market status, financial, and socio-economic variables. The duration until retirement is modeled using single and competing risk specifications, observed and unobserved heterogeneity, and flexible baseline hazards. Wealth is used as a proxy for elapsed duration to mitigate the potential selection bias stemming from conditioning on initial participation. The competing risk specification distinguishes complete multiperiod routes to retirement, such as unemployment followed by early retirement. A result on comparison of coefficients across all states is offered. The empirical results indicate a strong impact of health changes on retirement and hence a large potential for public policy measures intended to retain older workers longer in the labor force. Disability responds more to health shocks than early retirement, especially to diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and musculoskeletal systems, as well as mental and behavioral disorders. Some unemployment spells followed by early retirement appear voluntary and spurred by life style diseases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Compassion satisfaction, compassion fatigue, and critical incident stress management.

PubMed

Wee, David; Myers, Diane

2003-01-01

This study examines the potential for compassion satisfaction, compassion fatigue, and burnout in a sample of persons attending a workshop on Prevention of Compassion Fatigue at an international conference of providers of Critical Incident Stress Management (CISM) services. In the study, more than half (58%) of the respondents reported experiencing psychological reactions after providing CISM services, including an array of behavioral, emotional, cognitive, and physical symptoms of psychological stress. Forty percent of respondents were found to have moderate, high, or extremely high risk for compassion fatigue. At the same time, 89% of respondents were found to have a good, high, or extremely high potential for compassion satisfaction, and 87% were found to be at extremely low risk for burnout. The results appear to indicate that, while the CISM practitioners recognize the stress associated with their work (as reflected in the reported symptoms), the work provides significant rewards (as measured by compassion satisfaction) that outweigh the stress and mitigate against burnout. Likewise, while 40% tested positive for compassion fatigue (or secondary traumatic stress) as a result of their empathy with CISM recipients, the rewards of the work again appear to mitigate the negative effects of the work. Implications for future research and practice are presented.

Glacier protection laws: Potential conflicts in managing glacial hazards and adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Anacona, Pablo Iribarren; Kinney, Josie; Schaefer, Marius; Harrison, Stephan; Wilson, Ryan; Segovia, Alexis; Mazzorana, Bruno; Guerra, Felipe; Farías, David; Reynolds, John M; Glasser, Neil F

2018-03-13

The environmental, socioeconomic and cultural significance of glaciers has motivated several countries to regulate activities on glaciers and glacierized surroundings. However, laws written to specifically protect mountain glaciers have only recently been considered within national political agendas. Glacier Protection Laws (GPLs) originate in countries where mining has damaged glaciers and have been adopted with the aim of protecting the cryosphere from harmful activities. Here, we analyze GPLs in Argentina (approved) and Chile (under discussion) to identify potential environmental conflicts arising from law restrictions and omissions. We conclude that GPLs overlook the dynamics of glaciers and could prevent or delay actions needed to mitigate glacial hazards (e.g. artificial drainage of glacial lakes) thus placing populations at risk. Furthermore, GPL restrictions could hinder strategies (e.g. use of glacial lakes as reservoirs) to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change. Arguably, more flexible GPLs are needed to protect us from the changing cryosphere.

Ethical Concerns of and Risk Mitigation Strategies for Crowdsourcing Contests and Innovation Challenges: Scoping Review.

PubMed

Tucker, Joseph D; Pan, Stephen W; Mathews, Allison; Stein, Gabriella; Bayus, Barry; Rennie, Stuart

2018-03-09

Crowdsourcing contests (also called innovation challenges, innovation contests, and inducement prize contests) can be used to solicit multisectoral feedback on health programs and design public health campaigns. They consist of organizing a steering committee, soliciting contributions, engaging the community, judging contributions, recognizing a subset of contributors, and sharing with the community. This scoping review describes crowdsourcing contests by stage, examines ethical problems at each stage, and proposes potential ways of mitigating risk. Our analysis was anchored in the specific example of a crowdsourcing contest that our team organized to solicit videos promoting condom use in China. The purpose of this contest was to create compelling 1-min videos to promote condom use. We used a scoping review to examine the existing ethical literature on crowdsourcing to help identify and frame ethical concerns at each stage. Crowdsourcing has a group of individuals solve a problem and then share the solution with the public. Crowdsourcing contests provide an opportunity for community engagement at each stage: organizing, soliciting, promoting, judging, recognizing, and sharing. Crowdsourcing poses several ethical concerns: organizing-potential for excluding community voices; soliciting-potential for overly narrow participation; promoting-potential for divulging confidential information; judging-potential for biased evaluation; recognizing-potential for insufficient recognition of the finalist; and sharing-potential for the solution to not be implemented or widely disseminated. Crowdsourcing contests can be effective and engaging public health tools but also introduce potential ethical problems. We present methods for the responsible conduct of crowdsourcing contests. ©Joseph D Tucker, Stephen W Pan, Allison Mathews, Gabriella Stein, Barry Bayus, Stuart Rennie. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 09.03.2018.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

ISS Charging Hazards and Low Earth Orbit Space Weather Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph; Parker, L.; Coffey, V.; Wright K.; Koontz, S.; Edwards, D.

2008-01-01

Current collection by high voltage solar arrays on the International Space Station (ISS) drives the vehicle to negative floating potentials in the low Earth orbit daytime plasma environment. Pre-flight predictions of ISS floating potentials Phi greater than |-100 V| suggested a risk for degradation of dielectric thermal control coatings on surfaces in the U.S. sector due to arcing and an electrical shock hazard to astronauts during extravehicular activity (EVA). However, hazard studies conducted by the ISS program have demonstrated that the thermal control material degradation risk is effectively mitigated during the lifetime of the ISS vehicle by a sufficiently large ion collection area present on the vehicle to balance current collection by the solar arrays. To date, crew risk during EVA has been mitigated by operating one of two plasma contactors during EVA to control the vehicle potential within Phi less than or equal to |-40 V| with a backup process requiring reorientation of the solar arrays into a configuration which places the current collection surfaces into wake. This operation minimizes current collection by the solar arrays should the plasma contactors fail. This paper presents an analysis of F-region electron density and temperature variations at low and midlatitudes generated by space weather events to determine what range of conditions represent charging threats to ISS. We first use historical ionospheric plasma measurements from spacecraft operating at altitudes relevant to the 51.6 degree inclination ISS orbit to provide an extensive database of F-region plasma conditions over a variety of solar cycle conditions. Then, the statistical results from the historical data are compared to more recent in-situ measurements from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) operating on ISS in a campaign mode since its installation in August, 2006.

Effective Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Public Health Impacts of Heatwaves for Brookline, MA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalzadeh Fard, B.; Hassanzadeh, H.; Bhatia, U.; Ganguly, A. R.

2016-12-01

Studies on urban areas show a significant increase in frequency and intensity of heatwaves over the past decades, and predict the same trend for future. Since heatwaves have been responsible for a large number of life losses, urgent adaptation and mitigation strategies are required in the policy and decision making level for a sustainable urban planning. The Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory at Northeastern University, under the aegis of Thriving Earth Exchange of AGU, is working with the town of Brookline to understand the potential public health impacts of anticipated heatwaves. We consider the most important social and physical factors to obtain vulnerability and exposure parameters for each census block group of the town. Utilizing remote sensing data, we locate Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) during a recent heatwave event, as the hazard parameter. We then create priority risk map using the risk framework. Our analyses show spatial correlations between the UHIs and social factors such as poverty, and physical factors such as land cover variations. Furthermore, we investigate the future heatwave frequency and intensity increases by analyzing the climate models predictions. For future changes of UHIs, land cover changes are investigated using available predictive data. Also, socioeconomic predictions are carried out to complete the futuristic models of heatwave risks. Considering plausible scenarios for Brookline, we develop different risk maps based on the vulnerability, exposure and hazard parameters. Eventually, we suggest guidelines for Heatwave Action Plans for prioritizing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies in urban planning for the town of Brookline.

Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

2013-04-01

The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored by means of exploratory questionnaires and interviews with government agencies, local administrations, community and research organizations on each study site. First results provided will address the general role of spatial planning in risk management. Additionally, preliminary observations are made in regard to the coordination of emergency preparedness and long-term spatial planning activities. The observations consider that integration facilitates proactive strategies that aim at preventing disaster occurrence and promote interaction between involved parties. Finally, consideration is given to the potential use of a DSS tool to cover both aspects of spatial planning and emergency management in the risk management cycle.

Disease Risk Mitigation: The Equivalence of Two Selective Mixing Strategies on Aggregate Contact Patterns & Resulting Epidemic Spread☆

PubMed Central

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-01-01

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are under-determined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. PMID:25150459

Disease risk mitigation: the equivalence of two selective mixing strategies on aggregate contact patterns and resulting epidemic spread.

PubMed

Morin, Benjamin R; Perrings, Charles; Levin, Simon; Kinzig, Ann

2014-12-21

The personal choices affecting the transmission of infectious diseases include the number of contacts an individual makes, and the risk-characteristics of those contacts. We consider whether these different choices have distinct implications for the course of an epidemic. We also consider whether choosing contact mitigation (how much to mix) and affinity mitigation (with whom to mix) strategies together has different epidemiological effects than choosing each separately. We use a set of differential equation compartmental models of the spread of disease, coupled with a model of selective mixing. We assess the consequences of varying contact or affinity mitigation as a response to disease risk. We do this by comparing disease incidence and dynamics under varying contact volume, contact type, and both combined across several different disease models. Specifically, we construct a change of variables that allows one to transition from contact mitigation to affinity mitigation, and vice versa. In the absence of asymptomatic infection we find no difference in the epidemiological impacts of the two forms of disease risk mitigation. Furthermore, since models that include both mitigation strategies are underdetermined, varying both results in no outcome that could not be reached by choosing either separately. Which strategy is actually chosen then depends not on their epidemiological consequences, but on the relative cost of reducing contact volume versus altering contact type. Although there is no fundamental epidemiological difference between the two forms of mitigation, the social cost of alternative strategies can be very different. From a social perspective, therefore, whether one strategy should be promoted over another depends on economic not epidemiological factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

2015-04-01

Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the implementation phase of floodwalls, when the floodwalls are placed at any arrangement other than parallel to the flow (e.g. along river bends in meandering channels or at river junctions). Such considerations can lead to site-specific optimal designs of direct flood defenses with the rising floodwall system, both in terms of product performance as well as cost efficiency.

Net mitigation potential of straw return to Chinese cropland: estimation with a full greenhouse gas budget model.

PubMed

Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiaoke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Duan, Xiaonan; Zheng, Hua

2010-04-01

Based on the carbon-nitrogen cycles and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and emission processes related to straw return and burning, a compound greenhouse gas budget model, the "Straw Return and Burning Model" (SRBM), was constructed to estimate the net mitigation potential of straw return to the soil in China. As a full GHG budget model, the SRBM addressed the following five processes: (1) soil carbon sequestration, (2) mitigation of synthetic N fertilizer substitution, (3) methane emission from rice paddies, (4) additional fossil fuel use for straw return, and (5) CH4 and N2O emissions from straw burning in the fields. Two comparable scenarios were created to reflect different degrees of implementation for straw return and straw burning. With GHG emissions and mitigation effects of the five processes converted into global warming potential (GWP), the net GHG mitigation was estimated. We concluded that (1) when the full greenhouse gas budget is considered, the net mitigation potential of straw return differs from that when soil carbon sequestration is considered alone; (2) implementation of straw return across a larger area of cropland in 10 provinces (i.e., Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan) will increase net GHG emission; (3) if straw return is promoted as a feasible mitigation measure in the remaining provinces, the total net mitigation potential before soil organic carbon (SOC) saturation will be 71.89 Tg CO2 equivalent (eqv)/yr, which is equivalent to 1.733% of the annual carbon emission from fossil fuel use in China in 2003; (4) after SOC saturation, only 13 of 21 provinces retain a relatively small but permanent net mitigation potential, while in the others the net GHG mitigation potential will gradually diminish; and (5) the major obstacle to the feasibility or permanence of straw return as a mitigation measure is the increased CH4 emission from rice paddies. The paper also suggests that comparable scenarios in which all the related carbon-nitrogen cycles are taken into account be created to estimate the mitigation potentials of organic wastes in different utilizations and treatments.

Transfusion-related acute lung injury risk mitigation: an update.

PubMed

Otrock, Z K; Liu, C; Grossman, B J

2017-11-01

Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is a life-threatening complication of transfusion. Greater understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome has much improved during the last two decades. Plasma-containing components from female donors with leucocyte antibodies were responsible for the majority of TRALI fatalities before mitigation strategies were implemented. Over the past 15 years, measures to mitigate risk for TRALI have been implemented worldwide and they continued to evolve with time. The AABB requires that all plasma containing components and whole blood for transfusion must be collected from men, women who have not been pregnant, or women who have tested negative for human leucocyte antigen antibodies. Although the incidence of TRALI has decreased following the institution of TRALI mitigation strategies, TRALI is still the most common cause of transfusion-associated death in the United States. In this review, we focus on TRALI risk mitigation strategies. We describe the measures taken by blood collection facilities to reduce the risk of TRALI in the United States, Canada and European countries. We also review the literature for the effectiveness of these measures. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Mission design considerations for nuclear risk mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stancati, Mike; Collins, John

1993-01-01

Strategies for the mitigation of the nuclear risk associated with two specific mission operations are discussed. These operations are the safe return of nuclear thermal propulsion reactors to earth orbit and the disposal of lunar/Mars spacecraft reactors.

The Applicability of Resilience Training to the Mitigation of Trauma-Related Mental Illness in Military Personnel [Formula: see text].

PubMed

Thompson, Summer R; Dobbins, Sarah

Ongoing participation by the United States in military operations around the world places military personnel at an increased potential for exposure to trauma, which may directly result in an increased risk for mental health issues. It is important to develop and test new approaches to prevent and mitigate the effects of trauma in military personnel. One such area of research is focused on psychological resilience to prevent the sequelae of trauma. This article examines empirical research of resilience training in military personnel and discusses the potential applicability of such training in this population. In this literature review, four randomized control trials and one retrospective, parallel group study were reviewed. Each intervention had the goal of mitigating behavioral health issues after trauma exposure. The results of the various interventions were wide-ranging from no measurable difference in treatment groups to significant differences in outcomes. Despite the inconclusive results of our review, we have determined that resilience training for active duty service members to help prevent the deleterious effects of trauma on mental health is a compelling and necessary avenue for further research.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

Strategies to Mitigate Obsolescence in Defense Systems Using Commercial Components (Strategies visant a attenuer l’obsolescence des systemes par l’emploi de composants du commerce)

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-06-01

reflection of the composition of the audience which contained a high proportion of Defence Industry Contractors, who were interested in the practicalities of...to future project cost containment. In proportion to the potential costs, insufficient debate on software obsolescence was presented at this event. T...devoted to it should be proportionate to the risk. The risk is all the greater, as the ASIC is frequently, by its very nature, in the critical path of the

Independent Assessment of Instrumentation for ISS On-Orbit NDE. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I

2013-01-01

International Space Station (ISS) Structural and Mechanical Systems Manager, requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provide a quantitative assessment of commercially available nondestructive evaluation (NDE) instruments for potential application to the ISS. This work supports risk mitigation as outlined in the ISS Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) Watch Item #4669, which addresses the requirement for structural integrity after an ISS pressure wall leak in the event of a penetration due to micrometeoroid or debris (MMOD) impact. This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Independent Assessment of Instrumentation for ISS On-Orbit NDE. Volume 2; Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I.

2013-01-01

International Space Station (ISS) Structural and Mechanical Systems Manager, requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provide a quantitative assessment of commercially available nondestructive evaluation (NDE) instruments for potential application to the ISS. This work supports risk mitigation as outlined in the ISS Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) Watch Item #4669, which addresses the requirement for structural integrity after an ISS pressure wall leak in the event of a penetration due to micrometeoroid or debris (MMOD) impact. This document contains the appendices the final report.

A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

2013-01-01

Wildfires can result in significant, long-lasting impacts to ecological, social, and economic systems. It is necessary, therefore, to identify and understand the risks posed by wildland fire, and to develop cost-effective mitigation strategies accordingly. This report presents a general framework with which to assess wildfire risk and explore mitigation options, and...

Making the decision to mitigate risk

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Holly Wise Bender; Carol Raish

2007-01-01

Why individuals choose to mitigate, downplay, or ignore risk has been a topic of much research over the past 25 years for natural- and human-created risks, such as earthquakes, flooding, smoking, contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption. Wildfire has been a relatively recent focus in the natural hazard literature, perhaps a result of several years of catastrophic...

Mitigating the risk of food handling in the home-delivered meal program.

PubMed

Namkung, Young; Ismail, Joseph A; Almanza, Barbara A; Nelson, Douglas C

2007-02-01

The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the length of time between packing and delivery of home-delivered meals, and the extent of foodborne illness risk to the elderly. Procedures to mitigate that risk were also evaluated. Researchers surveyed 95 drivers from home-delivered meal preparation sites in six states across the United States to determine the average length of time that passed during packing, loading, leaving, and delivery. The efficiency of various risk mitigation methods were evaluated and used to adjust the actual delivery time. Total average delivery time from packing to last delivery was 1.92 hours. This study suggests that the risk associated with the actual 1.92 hours of total delivery time could be mitigated to represent approximately 1.55 hours of effective time with proper packing and holding conditions. This methodology proposes a single measure for evaluating the effectiveness of various handling procedures associated with distributing home-delivered meals, which can be utilized to evaluate overall risk when combined with in-house preparation and client-handling behaviors.

Hydrological modelling in a drinking water catchment area as a means of evaluating pathogen risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergion, Viktor; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Åström, Johan; Lindhe, Andreas; Sörén, Kaisa; Rosén, Lars

2017-01-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases are of great concern to drinking water producers and can give rise to substantial costs to the society. The World Health Organisation promotes an approach where the emphasis is on mitigating risks close to the contamination source. In order to handle microbial risks efficiently, there is a need for systematic risk management. In this paper we present a framework for microbial risk management of drinking water systems. The framework incorporates cost-benefit analysis as a decision support method. The hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was set up for the Stäket catchment area in Sweden, was used to simulate the effects of four different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. The modelling results showed that the two mitigation measures that resulted in a significant (p < 0.05) reduction of Cryptosporidium spp. and Escherichia coli concentrations were a vegetative filter strip linked to cropland and improved treatment (by one Log10 unit) at the wastewater treatment plants. The mitigation measure with a vegetative filter strip linked to grazing areas resulted in a significant reduction of Cryptosporidium spp., but not of E. coli concentrations. The mitigation measure with enhancing the removal efficiency of all on-site wastewater treatment systems (total removal of 2 Log10 units) did not achieve any significant reduction of E. coli or Cryptosporidium spp. concentrations. The SWAT model was useful when characterising the effect of different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. Hydrological modelling implemented within an appropriate risk management framework is a key decision support element as it identifies the most efficient alternative for microbial risk reduction.

Considerations to improve the safety of cervical spine manual therapy.

PubMed

Hutting, Nathan; Kerry, Roger; Coppieters, Michel W; Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M

2018-02-01

Manipulation and mobilisation of the cervical spine are well established interventions in the management of patients with headache and/or neck pain. However, their benefits are accompanied by potential, yet rare risks in terms of serious adverse events, including neurovascular insult to the brain. A recent international framework for risk assessment and management offers directions in the mitigation of this risk by facilitating sound clinical reasoning. The aim of this article is to critically reflect on and summarize the current knowledge about cervical spine manual therapy and to provide guidance for clinical reasoning for cervical spine manual therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the potential to reduce flood risk through catchment-based land management techniques and interventions in the River Roe catchment, Cumbria,UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Callum; Reaney, Sim; Bracken, Louise; Butler, Lucy

2015-04-01

Throughout the United Kingdom flood risk is a growing problem and a significant proportion of the population are at risk from flooding throughout the country. Across England and Wales over 5 million people are believed to be at risk from fluvial, pluvial or coastal flooding (DEFRA, 2013). Increasingly communities that have not dealt with flooding before have recently experienced significant flood events. The communities of Stockdalewath and Highbridge in the Roe catchment, a tributary of the River Eden in Cumbria, UK, are an excellent example. The River Roe has a normal flow of less than 5m3 sec-1 occurring 97 percent of the time however there have been two flash floods of 98.8m3 sec-1 in January 2005 and 86.9m3 sec-1 in May 2013. These two flash flood events resulted in the inundation of numerous properties within the catchment with the 2013 event prompting the creation of the Roe Catchment Community Water Management Group which aims are to deliver a sustainable approach to managing the flood risk. Due to the distributed rural population the community fails the cost-benefit analysis for a centrally funded flood risk mitigation scheme. Therefore the at-risk community within the Roe catchment have to look for cost-effective, sustainable techniques and interventions to reduce the potential negative impacts of future events; this has resulted in a focus on natural flood risk management. This research investigates the potential to reduce flood risk through natural catchment-based land management techniques and interventions within the Roe catchment; providing a scientific base from with further action can be enacted. These interventions include changes to land management and land use, such as soil aeration and targeted afforestation, the creation of runoff attenuation features and the construction of in channel features, such as debris dams. Natural flood management (NFM) application has been proven to be effective when reducing flood risk in smaller catchments and the potential to transfer these benefits to the Roe catchment (~69km2) have been assessed. Furthermore these flood mitigation features have the potential to deliver wider environmental improvements throughout the catchment and hence the potential for multiple benefits such as diffuse pollution reduction and habitat creation are considered. The research explores the impact of NFM techniques, flood storage areas or afforestation for example, with a view to enhancing local scale habitats. The research combines innovative catchment modelling techniques, both risk-based approaches (SCIMAP Flood) and spatially distributed hydrological simulation modelling (CRUM3), with in-field monitoring and observation of flow pathways and tributary response to rainfall using time-lapse cameras. Additional work with the local community and stakeholders will identify the range and location of potential catchment-based land management techniques and interventions being assessed; natural flood management implementation requires the participation and cooperation of landowners and local community to be successful (Howgate and Kenyon, 2009).

An Introduction to Risk with a Focus on Design Diversity in the Stockpile

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noone, Bailey C

2012-08-13

The maintenance and security of nuclear weapons in the stockpile involves decisions based on risk analysis and quantitative measures of risk. Risk is a factor in all decisions, a particularly important factor in decisions of a large scale. One example of high-risk decisions we will discuss is the risk involved in design diversity within the stockpile of nuclear weapons arsenal. Risk is defined as 'possibility of loss or injury' and the 'degree of probability of such loss' (Kaplan and Garrick 12). To introduce the risk involved with maintaining the weapons stockpile we will draw a parallel to the design andmore » maintenance of Southwest Airlines fleet of Boeing 737 planes. The clear benefits for cost savings in maintenance of having a uniform fleet are what historically drove Southwest to have only Boeing 737s in their fleet. Less money and resources are need for maintenance, training, and materials. Naturally, risk accompanies those benefits. A defect in a part of the plane indicates a potential defect in that same part in all the planes of the fleet. As a result, safety, business, and credibility are at risk. How much variety or diversity does the fleet need to mitigate that risk? With that question in mind, a balance is needed to accommodate the different risks and benefits of the situation. In a similar way, risk is analyzed for the design and maintenance of nuclear weapons in the stockpile. In conclusion, risk must be as low as possible when it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk, and to help balance options in stockpile stewardship.« less

A Double-Edged Sword: A Review of Benefits and Risks of Online Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Activities.

PubMed

Lewis, Stephen P; Seko, Yukari

2016-03-01

This review aimed to synthesize current evidence on the perceived benefits and risks of online activity pertinent to nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI). A systematic literature search was conducted to identify peer-reviewed articles, which yielded a total of 27 articles published between 2005 and 2015. Following this, a thematic analysis was employed to identify perceived benefits and risks of online NSSI activity. Our thematic analysis identified 4 potential benefits (mitigation of social isolation, recovery encouragement, emotional self-disclosure, curbing NSSI urges) and 3 potential risks (NSSI reinforcement, triggering NSSI urges, stigmatization of NSSI) associated with online NSSI activities. Given the double-edged effect of online NSSI activities, clinicians may benefit from incorporating clients' online NSSI activity in the context of NSSI assessment and treatment. Future research ought to directly examine the link between online NSSI activity and NSSI behavior to better understand the nature of these benefits and risks. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans—An Empirical Analysis of European Cities

PubMed Central

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future. PMID:26317420

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans-An Empirical Analysis of European Cities.

PubMed

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes; Olazabal, Marta; Heidrich, Oliver

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future.

Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery T., E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.a; Brown, Helen L., E-mail: h.brown@curtin.edu.a; Katscherian, Dianne, E-mail: Dianne.Katscherian@health.wa.gov.a

2011-04-15

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location.more » Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address the potential health impacts of climate change.« less

Use of surrogate indicators for the evaluation of potential health risks due to poor urban water quality: A Bayesian Network approach.

PubMed

Wijesiri, Buddhi; Deilami, Kaveh; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-02-01

Urban water pollution poses risks of waterborne infectious diseases. Therefore, in order to improve urban liveability, effective pollution mitigation strategies are required underpinned by predictions generated using water quality models. However, the lack of reliability in current modelling practices detrimentally impacts planning and management decision making. This research study adopted a novel approach in the form of Bayesian Networks to model urban water quality to better investigate the factors that influence risks to human health. The application of Bayesian Networks was found to enhance the integration of quantitative and qualitative spatially distributed data for analysing the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors using three surrogate indicators of human health risk, namely, turbidity, total nitrogen and fats/oils. Expert knowledge was found to be of critical importance in assessing the interdependent relationships between health risk indicators and influential factors. The spatial variability maps of health risk indicators developed enabled the initial identification of high risk areas in which flooding was found to be the most significant influential factor in relation to human health risk. Surprisingly, population density was found to be less significant in influencing health risk indicators. These high risk areas in turn can be subjected to more in-depth investigations instead of the entire region, saving time and resources. It was evident that decision making in relation to the design of pollution mitigation strategies needs to account for the impact of landscape characteristics on water quality, which can be related to risk to human health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A tool for cost-effectiveness analysis of field scale sediment-bound phosphorus mitigation measures and application to analysis of spatial and temporal targeting in the Lunan Water catchment, Scotland.

PubMed

Vinten, Andy; Sample, James; Ibiyemi, Adekunle; Abdul-Salam, Yakubu; Stutter, Marc

2017-05-15

The cost-effectiveness of six edge-of-field measures for mitigating diffuse pollution from sediment bound phosphorus (P) runoff from temperate arable farmland is analysed at catchment/field scales. These measures were: buffer strips, permanent grassland in the lowest 7% of arable fields, dry detention bunds, wetlands, and temporary barriers such as sediment fences. Baseline field P export was estimated using export coefficients (low risk crops) or a modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (high risk crops). The impact of measures was estimated using simple equations. Costs were estimated from gross margin losses or local data on grants. We used a net cost:benefit (NCB) factor to normalise the costs and impacts of each measure over time. Costs minimisation for target impact was done using PuLP, a linear programming module for Python, across 1634 riparian and non-riparian fields in the Lunan Water, a mixed arable catchment in Eastern Scotland. With all measures in place, average cost-effectiveness increases from £9 to £48/kg P as target P mitigation increases from 500 to 2500kg P across the catchment. Costs increase significantly when the measures available are restricted only to those currently eligible for government grants (buffers, bunds and wetlands). The assumed orientation of the average field slope makes a strong difference to the potential for storage of water by bunds and overall cost-effectiveness, but the non-funded measures can substitute for the extra expense incurred by bunds, where the slope orientation is not suitable. Economic discounting over time of impacts and costs of measures favours those measures, such as sediment fences, which are strongly targeted both spatially and temporally. This tool could be a useful guide for dialogue with land users about the potential fields to target for mitigation to achieve catchment targets. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying fine sediment sources to alleviate flood risk caused by fine sediments through catchment connectivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twohig, Sarah; Pattison, Ian; Sander, Graham

2017-04-01

Fine sediment poses a significant threat to UK river systems in terms of vegetation, aquatic habitats and morphology. Deposition of fine sediment onto the river bed reduces channel capacity resulting in decreased volume to contain high flow events. Once the in channel problem has been identified managers are under pressure to sustainably mitigate flood risk. With climate change and land use adaptations increasing future pressures on river catchments it is important to consider the connectivity of fine sediment throughout the river catchment and its influence on channel capacity, particularly in systems experiencing long term aggradation. Fine sediment erosion is a continuing concern in the River Eye, Leicestershire. The predominately rural catchment has a history of flooding within the town of Melton Mowbray. Fine sediment from agricultural fields has been identified as a major contributor of sediment delivery into the channel. Current mitigation measures are not sustainable or successful in preventing the continuum of sediment throughout the catchment. Identifying the potential sources and connections of fine sediment would provide insight into targeted catchment management. 'Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling Analysis Platforms' (SCIMAP) is a tool often used by UK catchment managers to identify potential sources and routes of sediment within a catchment. SCIMAP is a risk based model that combines hydrological (rainfall) and geomorphic controls (slope, land cover) to identify the risk of fine sediment being transported from source into the channel. A desktop version of SCIMAP was run for the River Eye at a catchment scale using 5m terrain, rainfall and land cover data. A series of SCIMAP model runs were conducted changing individual parameters to determine the sensitivity of the model. Climate Change prediction data for the catchment was used to identify potential areas of future connectivity and erosion risk for catchment managers. The results have been subjected to field validation as part of a wider research project which provides an indication of the robustness of widespread models as effective management tools.

Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Englhardt, Johanna; Boekhorst, Ellen; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale. M. Andres Diaz-Loaiza (1), Johanna Englhardt (1), Ellen de Boekhorst (1), Philip J. Ward (1) and Jeroen Aerts (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. andres.diazloaiza@vu.nl Floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters for humanity, affecting many people every year. Quantitative risk models on a global scale are nowadays available tools for institutions and actors in charge of risk management in order to plan possible mitigation measures in case of flood risk events. Many of these models have been focus on potential economic damage, population and GDP exposure, but the potential casualties assessment has been left aside. This is partially due to the complexity of the problem itself, in which several variables like the age of a pedestrian (drag/exposed to a flood event), or his weight and swimming experience can be decisive for the complete understanding of the problem. In the present work is presented the advances for the development of a methodology in order to include in the GLOFRIS model a new indicator in case of flood risk events. Preliminary analysis relating the GDP with the potential casualties shows that undeveloped countries have more susceptibility to loss of life in case of flood events. This because the GDP indicator evidences as well the protection measures available in a country.

Screening and prioritisation of chemical risks from metal mining operations, identifying exposure media of concern.

PubMed

Pan, Jilang; Oates, Christopher J; Ihlenfeld, Christian; Plant, Jane A; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2010-04-01

Metals have been central to the development of human civilisation from the Bronze Age to modern times, although in the past, metal mining and smelting have been the cause of serious environmental pollution with the potential to harm human health. Despite problems from artisanal mining in some developing countries, modern mining to Western standards now uses the best available mining technology combined with environmental monitoring, mitigation and remediation measures to limit emissions to the environment. This paper develops risk screening and prioritisation methods previously used for contaminated land on military and civilian sites and engineering systems for the analysis and prioritisation of chemical risks from modern metal mining operations. It uses hierarchical holographic modelling and multi-criteria decision making to analyse and prioritise the risks from potentially hazardous inorganic chemical substances released by mining operations. A case study of an active platinum group metals mine in South Africa is used to demonstrate the potential of the method. This risk-based methodology for identifying, filtering and ranking mining-related environmental and human health risks can be used to identify exposure media of greatest concern to inform risk management. It also provides a practical decision-making tool for mine acquisition and helps to communicate risk to all members of mining operation teams.

Optimal security investments and extreme risk.

PubMed

Mohtadi, Hamid; Agiwal, Swati

2012-08-01

In the aftermath of 9/11, concern over security increased dramatically in both the public and the private sector. Yet, no clear algorithm exists to inform firms on the amount and the timing of security investments to mitigate the impact of catastrophic risks. The goal of this article is to devise an optimum investment strategy for firms to mitigate exposure to catastrophic risks, focusing on how much to invest and when to invest. The latter question addresses the issue of whether postponing a risk mitigating decision is an optimal strategy or not. Accordingly, we develop and estimate both a one-period model and a multiperiod model within the framework of extreme value theory (EVT). We calibrate these models using probability measures for catastrophic terrorism risks associated with attacks on the food sector. We then compare our findings with the purchase of catastrophic risk insurance. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

2014-05-01

Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

The Impact of Perceived Barriers, Academic Anxiety, and Resource Management Strategies on Achievement in First-Year Community College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heller, Monica L.; Cassady, Jerrell C.

2017-01-01

The current study explored the impact of internal and external barriers (e.g., academic anxiety, employment) that place subgroups of college students at risk for academic failure in the first year. The mitigating potential of academic resource management strategies (e.g., time-study environment) was also examined. In a sample of 885 first-semester…

Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North

2010-01-01

Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

Analysis of Trajectory Flexibility Preservation Impact on Traffic Complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; El-Wakil, Tarek; Wing, David J.

2009-01-01

The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors proposed the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics, namely dynamic density indicators, which indicated that using the flexibility metrics reduced aircraft density and the potential of loss of separation.

Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Paoli, Rosa Grazia

2008-07-08

Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 'Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion ofmore » compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made.« less

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Mitigation options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

32 CFR 211.9 - Mitigation Options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Mitigation Options. 211.9 Section 211.9 National... MISSION COMPATIBILITY EVALUATION PROCESS Project Evaluation Procedures § 211.9 Mitigation Options. (a) In discussing mitigation to avoid an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States, the DoD...

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

2017-07-01

Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

Sewage epidemiology and illicit drug research: the development of ethical research guidelines.

PubMed

Prichard, Jeremy; Hall, Wayne; de Voogt, Pim; Zuccato, Ettore

2014-02-15

To discuss the need to develop ethical guidelines for researchers using sewage epidemiology to monitor drug use in the general population and specific precincts, including prisons, schools and workplaces. Describe current applications of sewage epidemiology, identify potential ethical risks associated with this science, and identify key means by which these risks may be mitigated through proportionate ethical guidance that allows this science to be fully developed. A rapidly advancing field of research is sewage epidemiology (SE) - the analysis of wastewater samples to monitor illicit drug use and other substances. Typically this research involves low ethical risks because individual participants cannot be identified and, consequently, review has been waived by human research ethics committees. In the absence of such oversight, ethical research guidelines are recommended for SE teams, peer reviewers and journal editors; guidelines will assist them to mitigate any risks in general population studies and studies of prisons, schools and workplaces. Potential harms include the stigmatisation of participants and, in the prison setting, austere policy responses to SE data that impact negatively upon inmate-participants. The risk of harm can be managed through research planning, awareness of the socio-political context in which results will be interpreted (or, in the case of media, sensationalised) and careful relations with industry partners. Ethical guidelines should be developed in consultation with SE scholars and be periodically amended. They should include publication processes that safeguard scientific rigour and be promulgated through existing research governance structures. Guidelines will assist to promote an ethical research culture among SE teams and scholars involved in the publication process and this will work to protect the reputation of the field. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of Stress and Mitigating Information on Evaluations, Attributions, Affect, Disciplinary Choices, and Expectations of Compliance in Mothers at High and Low Risk for Child Physical Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Paul, Joaquin; Asla, Nagore; Perez-Albeniz, Alicia; De Cadiz, Barbara Torres-Gomez

2006-01-01

The objective is to know if high-risk mothers for child physical abuse differ in their evaluations, attributions, negative affect, disciplinary choices for children's behavior, and expectations of compliance. The effect of a stressor and the introduction of mitigating information are analyzed. Forty-seven high-risk and 48 matched low-risk mothers…

Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b

PubMed Central

Cassano-Piché, A; Fan, M; Sabovitch, S; Masino, C; Easty, AC

2012-01-01

Background Minimal research has been conducted into the potential patient safety issues related to administering multiple intravenous (IV) infusions to a single patient. Previous research has highlighted that there are a number of related safety risks. In Phase 1a of this study, an analysis of 2 national incident-reporting databases (Institute for Safe Medical Practices Canada and United States Food and Drug Administration MAUDE) found that a high percentage of incidents associated with the administration of multiple IV infusions resulted in patient harm. Objectives The primary objectives of Phase 1b of this study were to identify safety issues with the potential to cause patient harm stemming from the administration of multiple IV infusions; and to identify how nurses are being educated on key principles required to safely administer multiple IV infusions. Data Sources and Review Methods A field study was conducted at 12 hospital clinical units (sites) across Ontario, and telephone interviews were conducted with program coordinators or instructors from both the Ontario baccalaureate nursing degree programs and the Ontario postgraduate Critical Care Nursing Certificate programs. Data were analyzed using Rasmussen’s 1997 Risk Management Framework and a Health Care Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. Results Twenty-two primary patient safety issues were identified with the potential to directly cause patient harm. Seventeen of these (critical issues) were categorized into 6 themes. A cause-consequence tree was established to outline all possible contributing factors for each critical issue. Clinical recommendations were identified for immediate distribution to, and implementation by, Ontario hospitals. Future investigation efforts were planned for Phase 2 of the study. Limitations This exploratory field study identifies the potential for errors, but does not describe the direct observation of such errors, except in a few cases where errors were observed. Not all issues are known in advance, and the frequency of errors is too low to be observed in the time allotted and with the limited sample of observations. Conclusions The administration of multiple IV infusions to a single patient is a complex task with many potential associated patient safety risks. Improvements to infusion and infusion-related technology, education standards, clinical best practice guidelines, hospital policies, and unit work practices are required to reduce the risk potential. This report makes several recommendations to Ontario hospitals so that they can develop an awareness of the issues highlighted in this report and minimize some of the risks. Further investigation of mitigating strategies is required and will be undertaken in Phase 2 of this research. Plain Language Summary Patients, particularly in critical care environments, often require multiple intravenous (IV) medications via large volumetric or syringe infusion pumps. The infusion of multiple IV medications is not without risk; unintended errors during these complex procedures have resulted in patient harm. However, the range of associated risks and the factors contributing to these risks are not well understood. Health Quality Ontario’s Ontario Health Technology Advisory Committee commissioned the Health Technology Safety Research Team at the University Health Network to conduct a multi-phase study to identify and mitigate the risks associated with multiple IV infusions. Some of the questions addressed by the team were as follows: What is needed to reduce the risk of errors for individuals who are receiving a lot of medications? What strategies work best? The initial report, Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1a: Situation Scan Summary Report, summarizes the interim findings based on a literature review, an incident database review, and a technology scan. The Health Technology Safety Research Team worked in close collaboration with the Institute for Safe Medication Practices Canada on an exploratory study to understand the risks associated with multiple IV infusions and the degree to which nurses are educated to help mitigate them. The current report, Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b: Practice and Training Scan, presents the findings of a field study of 12 hospital clinical units across Ontario, as well as 13 interviews with educators from baccalaureate-level nursing degree programs and postgraduate Critical Care Nursing Certificate programs. It makes 9 recommendations that emphasize best practices for the administration of multiple IV infusions and pertain to secondary infusions, line identification, line set-up and removal, and administering IV bolus medications. The Health Technology Safety Research Team has also produced an associated report for hospitals entitled Mitigating the Risks Associated With Multiple IV Infusions: Recommendations Based on a Field Study of Twelve Ontario Hospitals, which highlights the 9 interim recommendations and provides a brief rationale for each one. PMID:23074426

The international politics of geoengineering: The feasibility of Plan B for tackling climate change

PubMed Central

Corry, Olaf

2017-01-01

Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a ‘Plan B’ in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for ‘Plan A’, i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation. PMID:29386754

Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

PubMed

Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

2010-12-01

Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

New FDA draft guidance on immunogenicity.

PubMed

Parenky, Ashwin; Myler, Heather; Amaravadi, Lakshmi; Bechtold-Peters, Karoline; Rosenberg, Amy; Kirshner, Susan; Quarmby, Valerie

2014-05-01

A "Late Breaking" session was held on May 20 at the 2013 American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists-National Biotech Conference (AAPS-NBC) to discuss the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) 2013 draft guidance on Immunogenicity Assessment for Therapeutic Protein Products. The session was initiated by a presentation from the FDA which highlighted several key aspects of the 2013 draft guidance pertaining to immunogenicity risk, the potential impact on patient safety and product efficacy, and risk mitigation. This was followed by an open discussion on the draft guidance which enabled delegates from biopharmaceutical companies to engage the FDA on topics that had emerged from their review of the draft guidance. The multidisciplinary audience fostered an environment that was conducive to scientific discussion on a broad range of topics such as clinical impact, immune mitigation strategies, immune prediction and the role of formulation, excipients, aggregates, and degradation products in immunogenicity. This meeting report highlights several key aspects of the 2013 draft guidance together with related dialog from the session.

From tsunami hazard assessment to risk management in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann; Arnaud, Gaël; Mercado, Aurelio; Roger, Jean

2017-04-01

The Caribbean region is prone to numerous natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion or hurricanes. All these threats may cause great human and economic losses and are thus of prime interest for applied research. One of the main challenges for the scientific community is to conduct state-of-the-art research to assess hazards and share the results with coastal planners and decision makers so that they can regulate land use and develop mitigation strategies. We present here the results of a scientific collaborative project between Guadeloupe and Porto Rico which aimed at bringing a decision-making support to the authorities regarding tsunami hazards. This project led us to build a database of potential extreme events, and to study their impacts on Guadeloupe to investigate storm surge and tsunami hazards. The results were used by local authorities to develop safeguarding and mitigation measures in coastal areas. This project is thus a good example to demonstrate the benefit of inter Caribbean scientific collaboration for natural risks management.

Use of a video laryngoscope to facilitate removal of a long, sharp-pointed blade from the esophagus.

PubMed

Hiller, Kenneth N; Hagberg, Carin A

2016-08-01

Initial management of ingested esophageal foreign bodies involves airway assessment, determination of the requirement for and timing of therapeutic intervention, risk mitigation during removal, and identification of all indicated equipment for retrieval. Long, sharp-pointed objects lodged in the esophagus require emergent attention and should be retrieved endoscopically, if perforation has not occurred. Inducing general anesthesia and rapidly securing the airway can minimize the risk of aspiration, mitigate any effects of tracheal compression, avoid the potential of exacerbating existing trauma, and provide optimal conditions for removal of long, sharp-pointed esophageal foreign bodies. Video laryngoscopy provides improved recognition of anatomical structures in both normal and difficult airways, enabling assessment for hypopharyngeal and glottic trauma resulting from foreign body ingestion. The indirect view of video laryngoscopy also facilitates the coordinated manipulation of the airway by both the anesthesiologist and the surgeon as they visualize the anatomy together while securing the airway and removing the foreign body. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paying the pipers: Mitigating the impact of anticoagulant rodenticides on predators and scavengers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, John E.; Rattner, Barnett A.; Shore, Richard F.; van den Brink, Nico W.

2016-01-01

Anticoagulant rodenticides, mainly second-generation forms, or SGARs, dominate the global market for rodent control. Introduced in the 1970s to counter genetic resistance in rodent populations to first-generation compounds such as warfarin, SGARs are extremely toxic and highly effective killers. However, their tendency to persist and accumulate in the body has led to the widespread contamination of terrestrial predators and scavengers. Commercial chemicals that are classified by regulators as persistent, bio-accumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals and that are widely used with potential environmental release, such as dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) or polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), have been removed from commerce. However, despite consistently failing ecological risk assessments, SGARs remain in use because of the demand for effective rodent-control options and the lack of safe and humane alternatives. Although new risk-mitigation measures for rodenticides are now in effect in some countries, the contamination and poisoning of nontarget wildlife are expected to continue. Here, we suggest options to further attenuate this problem.

Expansion of Viral Load Testing and the Potential Impact on HIV Drug Resistance.

PubMed

Raizes, Elliot; Hader, Shannon; Birx, Deborah

2017-12-01

The US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) supports aggressive scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-burden countries and across all genders and populations at risk toward global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic control. PEPFAR recognizes the risk of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) as a consequence of aggressive ART scale-up and is actively promoting 3 key steps to mitigate the impact of HIVDR: (1) routine access to routine viral load monitoring in all settings; (2) optimization of ART regimens; and (3) routine collection and analysis of HIVDR data to monitor the success of mitigation strategies. The transition to dolutegravir-based regimens in PEPFAR-supported countries and the continuous evolution of HIVDR surveillance strategies are essential elements of PEPFAR implementation. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Microbial Impact on Success of Human Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, Duane L.; Ott, C. Mark; Groves, T. O.; Paloski, W. H. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify microbiological risks associated with space exploration and identify potential countermeasures available. Identification of microbial risks associated with space habitation requires knowledge of the sources and expected types of microbial agents. Crew data along with environmental data from water, surfaces, air, and free condensate are utilized in risk examination. Data from terrestrial models are also used. Microbial risks to crew health include bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and viruses. Adverse effects of microbes include: infections, allergic reactions, toxin production, release of volatiles, food spoilage, plant disease, material degradation, and environmental contamination. Risk is difficult to assess because of unknown potential changes in microbes (e.g., mutation) and the human host (e.g., immune changes). Prevention of adverse microbial impacts is preferred over remediation. Preventative measures include engineering measures (e.g., air filtration), crew microbial screening, acceptability standards, and active verification by onboard monitoring. Microbiological agents are important risks to human health and performance during space flight and risks increase with mission duration. Acceptable risk level must be defined. Prevention must be given high priority. Careful screening of crewmembers and payloads is an important element of any risk mitigation plan. Improved quantitation of microbiological risks is a high priority.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

2017-04-01

In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would change that picture.

Modern Approaches to Wildfire Mitigation by Air and by Ground: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.; Wuerzer, T.; Lawless, B.; McCoy, J.

2013-12-01

In 2012, 1.7 million acres of land burned in Idaho--more than any other state. Boise, Idaho, is situated at the base of the Boise Foothills; this physiographic setting places the area at risk of not only fires along on the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), but also at risk for post-fire floods and debris flows in the lower lying neighborhoods adjacent to steep hillslopes. In 1959 and 1994, fires and post-fire debris flows devastated areas of the foothills, and inundated residences with water and mud. Anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected to increased summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation; the associated increase in fire risk necessitates enhanced wildfire planning in Boise's WUI. Temporal uncertainty with varying weather and vegetation conditions poses problems in defining wildfire risk and requires new methods to address the WUI challenges. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could identify and characterize fire hazards to be mapped and used as a management tool. This technology would allow for repeat flights to update risk analysis as the hazards change both annually and multiple times within each fire season. With aerial photography obtained from flights, Structure from Motion software can be used to compile the images and render a 3D model to help quantify biomass. Aerial photographs would also allow for the ability to track seasonal changes in fire risk from vegetation height and inferred moisture content. Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and urban/regional planning in the WUI to provide better spatially-appropriate data and resources to the community and a common reference to assist in unifying the local efforts for fire mitigation. This presentation will introduce findings from a homeowner's survey of potentially at-risk residents regarding their perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their receptiveness to local mitigation, adaptation policies, and alternatives.

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

The potential for health risks from intrusion of contaminants into the distribution system from pressure transients.

PubMed

LeChevallier, Mark W; Gullick, Richard W; Karim, Mohammad R; Friedman, Melinda; Funk, James E

2003-03-01

The potential for public health risks associated with intrusion of contaminants into water supply distribution systems resulting from transient low or negative pressures is assessed. It is shown that transient pressure events occur in distribution systems; that during these negative pressure events pipeline leaks provide a potential portal for entry of groundwater into treated drinking water; and that faecal indicators and culturable human viruses are present in the soil and water exterior to the distribution system. To date, all observed negative pressure events have been related to power outages or other pump shutdowns. Although there are insufficient data to indicate whether pressure transients are a substantial source of risk to water quality in the distribution system, mitigation techniques can be implemented, principally the maintenance of an effective disinfectant residual throughout the distribution system, leak control, redesign of air relief venting, and more rigorous application of existing engineering standards. Use of high-speed pressure data loggers and surge modelling may have some merit, but more research is needed.

Mesh-Based Entry Vehicle and Explosive Debris Re-Contact Probability Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPherson, Mark A.; Mendeck, Gavin F.

2011-01-01

The risk to a crewed vehicle arising from potential re-contact with fragments from an explosive breakup of any jettisoned spacecraft segments during entry has long sought to be quantified. However, great difficulty lies in efficiently capturing the potential locations of each fragment and their collective threat to the vehicle. The method presented in this paper addresses this problem by using a stochastic approach that discretizes simulated debris pieces into volumetric cells, and then assesses strike probabilities accordingly. Combining spatial debris density and relative velocity between the debris and the entry vehicle, the strike probability can be calculated from the integral of the debris flux inside each cell over time. Using this technique it is possible to assess the risk to an entry vehicle along an entire trajectory as it separates from the jettisoned segment. By decoupling the fragment trajectories from that of the entry vehicle, multiple potential separation maneuvers can then be evaluated rapidly to provide an assessment of the best strategy to mitigate the re-contact risk.

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Supply chain risk management in newspaper company: House of risk approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnasari, Sintya; Hisjam, Muhammad; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

In the supply chain (SC) of newspapers, the printing company is the main entity that has several processes, i.e. procure raw materials, print plate and newspapers, and also distribute newspaper to consumers. The existing risks in the newspaper printing company are quite high. A wide range of disturbances or risks needs to be identified to map out the characteristics of the risk sources that will impact on the performance of the supply chain. Therefore, the printing companies need to manage their supply chain risk of the five major SC processes (such as plan, source, deliver, make, and return). In a case study of a newspaper company in Surakarta, the company have not implemented a risk management process that affects the company. This study is aimed to map the risks in the printing company and formulate risk mitigation alternatives to mitigate the risks. The house of risk (HOR) method was chosen to select a set of proactive actions deemed cost-effective in managing SC Risks in the newspaper company. The model consisting of two stages, the first stage (HOR1) was done by identifying risk, risk causing agents and then measured the severity and occurrences to calculate the Aggregate Risk Priority (ARP) value. The second stage (HOR2) is intended to formulate and prioritize the action of mitigation that the company should pursue to reduce the probability of risk agents to occur. The result shows that the innovative model of HOR in Newspaper Company was presented. There are 24 risk events, 20 causing agents and two priority risks in HOR1. The HOR 2 was proposed 9 ranks of mitigation strategy for priority risk agents, from the easiest to the hardest strategy for the company to implement it.

Solutions Network Formulation Report. NASA's Potential Contributions using ASTER Data in Marine Hazard Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fletcher, Rose

2010-01-01

The 28-foot storm surge from Hurricane Katrina pushed inland along bays and rivers for a distance of 12 miles in some areas, contributing to the damage or destruction of about half of the fleet of boats in coastal Mississippi. Most of those boats had sought refuge in back bays and along rivers. Some boats were spared damage because the owners chose their mooring site well. Gulf mariners need a spatial analysis tool that provides guidance on the safest places to anchor their boats during future hurricanes. This product would support NOAA s mission to minimize the effects of coastal hazards through awareness, education, and mitigation strategies and could be incorporated in the Coastal Risk Atlas decision support tool.

Key techniques and risk management for the application of the Pile-Beam-Arch (PBA) excavation method: a case study of the Zhongjie subway station.

PubMed

Guan, Yong-ping; Zhao, Wen; Li, Shen-gang; Zhang, Guo-bin

2014-01-01

The design and construction of shallow-buried tunnels in densely populated urban areas involve many challenges. The ground movements induced by tunneling effects pose potential risks to infrastructure such as surface buildings, pipelines, and roads. In this paper, a case study of the Zhongjie subway station located in Shenyang, China, is examined to investigate the key construction techniques and the influence of the Pile-Beam-Arch (PBA) excavation method on the surrounding environment. This case study discusses the primary risk factors affecting the environmental safety and summarizes the corresponding risk mitigation measures and key techniques for subway station construction using the PBA excavation method in a densely populated urban area.

Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lengyel, David M.

2009-01-01

The NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) IRKM-P tightly couples risk management and knowledge management processes and tools to produce an effective "modern" work environment. IRKM-P objectives include: (1) to learn lessons from past and current programs (Apollo, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station); (2) to generate and share new engineering design, operations, and management best practices through preexisting Continuous Risk Management (CRM) procedures and knowledge-management practices; and (3) to infuse those lessons and best practices into current activities. The conceptual framework of the IRKM-P is based on the assumption that risks highlight potential knowledge gaps that might be mitigated through one or more knowledge management practices or artifacts. These same risks also serve as cues for collection of knowledge particularly, knowledge of technical or programmatic challenges that might recur.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

Mitigation of disease- and treatment-related risks in patients with psoriatic arthritis.

PubMed

Bergman, Martin; Lundholm, Amy

2017-03-20

Psoriatic arthritis is a part of the family of diseases referred to as spondyloarthropathies, a diverse group of chronic inflammatory disorders with common clinical, radiographic, and genetic features. Peripheral arthritis is the most common symptom of psoriatic arthritis and patients also frequently experience involvement of the entheses, spine, skin, and nails. Due to the diverse clinical spectrum of disease severity, tissues affected, and associated comorbidities, the treatment of psoriatic arthritis can be challenging and it is necessary to mitigate risks associated with both the disease and its treatment. These risks include disease-specific, treatment-related, and psychological risks. Disease-specific risks include those associated with disease progression that can limit functional status and be mitigated through early diagnosis and initiation of treatment. Risks also arise from comorbidities that are associated with psoriatic arthritis such as cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and gastrointestinal inflammation. Patient outcomes can be affected by the treatment strategy employed and the pharmacologic agents administered. Additionally, it is important for physicians to be aware of risks specific to each therapeutic option. The impact of psoriatic arthritis is not limited to the skin and joints and it is common for patients to experience quality-of-life impairment. Patients are also more likely to have depression, anxiety, and alcoholism. This article reviews the many risks associated with psoriatic arthritis and provides guidance on mitigating these risks.

Soil organic carbon pool's contribution to climate change mitigation on marginal land of a Mediterranean montane area in Italy.

PubMed

Tommaso, Chiti; Emanuele, Blasi; Guido, Pellis; Lucia, Perugini; Vincenza, Chiriacò Maria; Riccardo, Valentini

2018-07-15

To evaluate the mitigation potential provided by the SOC pool, we investigated the impact of woody encroachment in the 0-30 cm depth of mineral soil across a natural succession from abandoned pastures and croplands to broadleaves forests on the central Apennine in Italy. In parallel, to assess the effect of the land use change (LUC) from cropland to pasture, a series of pastures established on former agricultural sites, abandoned at different time in the past, were also investigated. Our results show that woody encroachment on former pastures and croplands contributes largely to mitigate climate change, with an increase of the original SOC stock of 45% (40.5 Mg C ha -1 ) and 120% (66.5 Mg C ha -1 ), respectively. Also the LUC from croplands to pastures, greatly contributes to climate change mitigation trough a SOC increase of about 80% of the original SOC (45.9 Mg C ha -1 ). The management of abandoned lands represent a crucial point in the mitigation potential of agriculture and forestry activities, and particularly the role of the SOC pool. A policy effort should focus on minimizing the risk of speculative management options, particularly when the value of woody biomass become convenient to supply new energy systems allowing monetizing a long term forests productivity. In conclusion, despite both the land abandonment and the LUC can have a different impact on the SOC pool under different climatic conditions, these results can be useful to improve the SOC estimates in the National greenhouse gases Inventory at country level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical model for the design of in situ horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) for the mitigation of chlorinated solvent vapors in the unsaturated zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verginelli, Iason; Capobianco, Oriana; Hartog, Niels; Baciocchi, Renato

2017-02-01

In this work we introduce a 1-D analytical solution that can be used for the design of horizontal permeable reactive barriers (HPRBs) as a vapor mitigation system at sites contaminated by chlorinated solvents. The developed model incorporates a transient diffusion-dominated transport with a second-order reaction rate constant. Furthermore, the model accounts for the HPRB lifetime as a function of the oxidant consumption by reaction with upward vapors and its progressive dissolution and leaching by infiltrating water. Simulation results by this new model closely replicate previous lab-scale tests carried out on trichloroethylene (TCE) using a HPRB containing a mixture of potassium permanganate, water and sand. In view of field applications, design criteria, in terms of the minimum HPRB thickness required to attenuate vapors at acceptable risk-based levels and the expected HPRB lifetime, are determined from site-specific conditions such as vapor source concentration, water infiltration rate and HPRB mixture. The results clearly show the field-scale feasibility of this alternative vapor mitigation system for the treatment of chlorinated solvents. Depending on the oxidation kinetic of the target contaminant, a 1 m thick HPRB can ensure an attenuation of vapor concentrations of orders of magnitude up to 20 years, even for vapor source concentrations up to 10 g/m3. A demonstrative application for representative contaminated site conditions also shows the feasibility of this mitigation system from an economical point of view with capital costs potentially somewhat lower than those of other remediation options, such as soil vapor extraction systems. Overall, based on the experimental and theoretical evaluation thus far, field-scale tests are warranted to verify the potential and cost-effectiveness of HPRBs for vapor mitigation control under various conditions of application.

The Use of Filter-feeders to Manage Disease in a Changing World.

PubMed

Burge, Colleen A; Closek, Collin J; Friedman, Carolyn S; Groner, Maya L; Jenkins, Cody M; Shore-Maggio, Amanda; Welsh, Jennifer E

2016-10-01

Rapid environmental change is linked to increases in aquatic disease heightening the need to develop strategies to manage disease. Filter-feeding species are effective biofilters and can naturally mitigate disease risk to humans and wildlife. We review the role of filter-feeders, with an emphasis on bivalves, in altering disease outcomes via augmentation and reduction. Filtration can reduce transmission by removing pathogens from the water column via degradation and release of pathogens in pseudofeces. In other cases, filtration can increase pathogen transmission and disease risk. The effect of filtration on pathogen transmission depends on the selectivity of the filter-feeder, the degree of infectivity by the pathogen, the mechanism(s) of pathogen transmission and the ability of the pathogen to resist degradation. For example, some bacteria and viruses can resist degradation and accumulate within a filter-feeder leading to disease transmission to humans and other wildlife upon ingestion. Since bivalves can concentrate microorganisms, they are also useful as sentinels for the presence of pathogenic microorganisms. While somewhat less studied, other invertebrates, including ascidians and sponges may also provide ecosystem services by altering pathogen transmission. In all scenarios, climate change may affect the potential for filter-feeders to mitigate disease risk. We conclude that an assessment including empirical data and modeling of system-wide impacts should be conducted before selection of filter-feeders to mitigate disease. Such studies should consider physiology of the host and microbe and risk factors for negative impacts including augmentation of other pathogens. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Agriculture and climate change: Potential for mitigation in Spain.

PubMed

Albiac, Jose; Kahil, Taher; Notivol, Eduardo; Calvo, Elena

2017-08-15

Agriculture and forestry activities are one of the many sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but they are also sources of low-cost opportunities to mitigate these emissions compared to other economic sectors. This paper provides a first estimate of the potential for mitigation in the whole Spanish agriculture. A set of mitigation measures are selected for their cost-effectiveness and abatement potential and an efficient mix of these measures is identified with reference to a social cost of carbon of 40 €/tCO 2 e. This mix of measures includes adjusting crop fertilization and managing forests for carbon sequestration. Results indicate that by using the efficient mix of mitigation measures the annual abatement potential could reach 10 million tCO 2 e, which represents 28% of current agricultural emissions in Spain. This potential could further increase if the social cost of carbon rises covering the costs of applying manure to crops. Results indicate also that economic instruments such as input and emission taxes could be only ancillary measures to address mitigation in agriculture. These findings can be used to support the mitigation efforts in Spain and guide policymakers in the design of country-level mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.

PubMed

Klein, Emily S; Hill, Simeon L; Hinke, Jefferson T; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

PubMed Central

Hill, Simeon L.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future. PMID:29385153

Communication of Seismic Risk in the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Coates, Katherine; Moldobekov, Bolot; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Pittore, Massimiliano; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

Earthquakes that generate shaking leading to damage or human loss are infrequent events. This can lead to the situation in some parts of the world where, even in seismically hazardous areas, a large proportion of the potentially affected population do not have first-hand experience of a destructive earthquake event. Therefore, continual risk communication is required for the appropriate government agencies, civil defence professionals and the general public to understand the potential risks, and to implement the required risk mitigation measures. A comprehensive seismic risk communication strategy has been developed for the Kyrgyz Republic as part of a World Bank funded project. The communication strategy has been developed in close consultation with Kyrgyz ministries and agencies, who have been invaluable in tailoring the message to the specific requirements of Kyrgyz society. The communication strategy comprises the production of visual material, including brochures and posters, which illustrate in non-technical language the key elements of seismic risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability, losses), and which provide easy-to-understand guidance on what the different segments of the society (young, elderly, home owners, employers) can do to reduce losses from earthquakes in their homes, workplace and the community at large. An important part of the risk communication strategy has been the establishment of a Steering Committee for the reduction of seismic risk in the Kyrgyz Republic. The members of the committee are drawn from those Kyrgyz ministries and institutions that are tasked with measuring and reducing seismic risk in the country, including the Ministries of Education, Transport and Emergency Situations, and the State Construction Agency. The role of the committee includes coordinating the communication between the project team and stakeholders in the Government, and, crucially, taking ownership of the risk mitigation measures and their implementation. A number of challenges were addressed when developing and implementing the risk communication strategy, and these will be discussed in this presentation. This includes the need for the engineering seismology community of the Kyrgyz Republic to reconsider some of the measures used to describe seismic, such as the ongoing use of macroseismic intensity instead of such measures as peak ground acceleration (PGA).

The contribution of sectoral climate change mitigation options to national targets: a quantitative assessment of dairy production in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Patric; Herold, Martin; Rufino, Mariana C.

2018-03-01

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture has become a critical target in national climate change policies. More than 80% of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refer to the reduction of agricultural emissions, including livestock, in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change. The livestock sector in Kenya contributes largely to the gross domestic product and to GHG emissions from the land use sector. The government has recently pledged in its NDC to curb total GHG emissions by 30% by 2030. Quantifying and linking the mitigation potential of farm practices to national targets is required to support realistically the implementation of NDCs. Improvements in feed and manure management represent promising mitigation options for dairy production. This study aimed (i) to assess mitigation and food production benefits of feed and manure management scenarios, including land use changes covering Kenya’s entire dairy production region and (ii) to analyse the contribution of these practices to national targets on milk production and mitigation, and their biophysical feasibility given the availability of arable land. The results indicate that improving forage quality by increasing the use of Napier grass and supplementing dairy concentrates supports Kenya’s NDC target, reduces emission intensities by 26%-31%, partially achieves the national milk productivity target for 2030 by 38%-41%, and shows high feasibility given the availability of arable land. Covering manure heaps may reduce emissions from manure management by 68%. In contrast, including maize silage in cattle diets would not reduce emission intensities due to the risk of ten-fold higher emissions from the conversion of land required to grow additional maize. The shortage of arable land may render the implementation of these improved feed practices largely infeasible. This assessment provides the first quantitative estimates of the potential of feed intensification and manure management to mitigate GHG emissions and to increase milk yields at sectoral-level and at a high spatial resolution for an SSA country. The scientific evidence is tailored to support actual policy and decision-making processes at the national level, such as ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’. Linking feed intensification and manure management strategies with spatially-explicit estimates of mitigation and food production to national targets may help the sector to access climate financing while contributing to food security.

Knowledge, risk perception and mitigation measures towards Ebola virus disease by potentially exposed bushmeat handlers in north-central Nigeria: Any critical gap?

PubMed

Alhaji, N B; Yatswako, S; Oddoh, E Y

2018-02-01

The bushmeat industry has been a topic of increasing importance among public health officials for its influence on zoonotic diseases transmission, such as Ebola virus disease (EVD), a rare and severe infectious disease of humans and non-human primates. This survey assessed knowledge/awareness, risk perceptions and mitigation practices towards EVD among bushmeat handlers in north-central Nigeria. These characteristics are premise to level of preparedness against appropriate risk prevention and control. A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study was conducted between January and December 2015 on 395 bushmeat handlers. Descriptive and analytical statistical analyses were performed using Epi-Info 3.5.3 software, and p < 0.05 was considered statistical significance in all analyses. Mean age of respondents was 40.9 ± 10.7 years, and most (30.4%) of them were in the age group 40-49 years. Majority (82.8%) of them were males, while most (47.9%) do not possess formal education. Bushmeat hunters, vendors and consumers constituted 17.2%, 28.1% and 54.7% of the respondents, respectively. A majority (85.6%) of the participants had heard about EVD. Bushmeat vendors were more likely (OR 1.96; 95% CI: 1.05-3.65) to have satisfactory knowledge than the hunters. Handlers with tertiary education were more likely (OR 3.22; 95% CI: 1.56-6.67) to possess significant satisfactory knowledge/awareness about EVD. Also, vendors were more likely (OR 1.85; 95% CI: 1.01-3.42) to practice satisfactory mitigation measures than the hunters. Only handlers with tertiary education were more likely (OR 2.48; 95% CI: 1.26-4.89) to significantly practice satisfactory mitigation measures against EVD. Although most of the handlers possessed significant knowledge/awareness about EVD, few applied mitigation measures against its infection, which is the challenging gap. There is a need for collaborations between the public health, veterinary and wildlife authorities in the provision of health information to bushmeat handlers on better management of emerging and re-emerging zoonotic viral diseases of wildlife origin. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A day in the life of a volunteer incident commander: errors, pressures and mitigating strategies.

PubMed

Bearman, Christopher; Bremner, Peter A

2013-05-01

To meet an identified gap in the literature this paper investigates the tasks that a volunteer incident commander needs to carry out during an incident, the errors that can be made and the way that errors are managed. In addition, pressure from goal seduction and situation aversion were also examined. Volunteer incident commanders participated in a two-part interview consisting of a critical decision method interview and discussions about a hierarchical task analysis constructed by the authors. A SHERPA analysis was conducted to further identify potential errors. The results identified the key tasks, errors with extreme risk, pressures from strong situations and mitigating strategies for errors and pressures. The errors and pressures provide a basic set of issues that need to be managed by both volunteer incident commanders and fire agencies. The mitigating strategies identified here suggest some ways that this can be done. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Mitigation of adverse environmental effects on lunar-based astronomical instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Charles L.; Dietz, Kurtis L.; Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

The galactic cosmic-ray flux incident on the moon was examined for its potential adverse impact on the performance of the large lunar telescope (LLT) proposed as a part of NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Noise produced by the cosmic-ray flux in the charge coupled devices to be used as the primary photodetector in the telescope was estimated. It was calculated that approximately 2.5 m of regolith would provide the shielding necessary to reduce the noise to an acceptable level. Dust is an omnipresent environmental concern for any human-assisted or robotic scientific instruments deployed on the moon. The degree to which dust poses an operational risk to the telescope was examined. Three potential methods for reducing this risk were identified: locating scientific instruments at remote locations; utilizing a prepared, dust-free site for all rocket activities; and covering the optics during high-risk times.

Mitigation of adverse environmental effects on lunar-based astronomical instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Les; Dietz, Kurtis L.; Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

1994-02-01

The galactic cosmic-ray flux incident on the Moon was examined for its potential adverse impact on the performance of the large lunar telescope (LLT) proposed as a part of NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Noise produced by the cosmic-ray flux in the charge coupled devices (CCD's) to be used as the primary photodetector in the telescope was estimated. It was calculated that approximately 2.5 m of regolith would provide the shielding necessary to reduce the noise to an acceptable level. Dust is an omnipresent environmental concern for any human-assisted or robotic scientific instruments deployed on the Moon. The degree to which dust poses an operational risk to the telescope was examined. Three potential methods for reducing this risk were identified: locating scientific instruments at remote locations; utilizing a prepared, dust-free site for all rocket activities; and covering the optics during high-risk times.

Risk assessment for safety laboratories in Politeknik Negeri Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viyata Sundawa, Bakti; Hutajulu, Elferida; Sirait, Regina; Banurea, Waldemar; Indrayadi; Mulyadi, Sangap

2017-09-01

International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated 2.34 million people die each year because accidents and diseases in workplace. It also impact to economic losses in some countries. It need to do safety and healthy in working environment especially in laboratory. Identification of potential hazards and risks must be done in Telecommunication Laboratory Politeknik Negeri Medan. Therefore, this study was assessed 5 of potential hazards and risks in our laboratory by Likert Scale. This object was divided into 2 assessment namely likelihood of hazards and severity of consequences. Collecting data is taken from questionnaire who involved 100 students at random academic level. The result showed The highest score is chemical hazards 73.2% in likelihood of hazards and electrical hazards 85% in severity of consequences. This condition is classified as “high” state. Big attention must be given to “high” state because it can help us to determine mitigate action.

Mitigation of adverse environmental effects on lunar-based astronomical instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Charles L.; Dietz, Kurtis L.; Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

1992-01-01

The galactic cosmic-ray flux incident on the moon was examined for its potential adverse impact on the performance of the large lunar telescope (LLT) proposed as a part of NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Noise produced by the cosmic-ray flux in the charge coupled devices to be used as the primary photodetector in the telescope was estimated. It was calculated that approximately 2.5 m of regolith would provide the shielding necessary to reduce the noise to an acceptable level. Dust is an omnipresent environmental concern for any human-assisted or robotic scientific instruments deployed on the moon. The degree to which dust poses an operational risk to the telescope was examined. Three potential methods for reducing this risk were identified: locating scientific instruments at remote locations; utilizing a prepared, dust-free site for all rocket activities; and covering the optics during high-risk times.

Mitigation of adverse environmental effects on lunar-based astronomical instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Les; Dietz, Kurtis L.; Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

1994-01-01

The galactic cosmic-ray flux incident on the Moon was examined for its potential adverse impact on the performance of the large lunar telescope (LLT) proposed as a part of NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Noise produced by the cosmic-ray flux in the charge coupled devices (CCD's) to be used as the primary photodetector in the telescope was estimated. It was calculated that approximately 2.5 m of regolith would provide the shielding necessary to reduce the noise to an acceptable level. Dust is an omnipresent environmental concern for any human-assisted or robotic scientific instruments deployed on the Moon. The degree to which dust poses an operational risk to the telescope was examined. Three potential methods for reducing this risk were identified: locating scientific instruments at remote locations; utilizing a prepared, dust-free site for all rocket activities; and covering the optics during high-risk times.

OTC analgesics and drug interactions: clinical implications

PubMed Central

Fendrick, A Mark; Pan, Deborah E; Johnson, Grace E

2008-01-01

The risk of drug interactions with concurrent use of multiple medications is a clinically relevant issue. Many patients are unaware that over-the-counter (OTC) analgesics can cause potentially serious adverse effects when used in combination with other common medications such as anticoagulants, corticosteroids, or antihypertensive agents. Of particular significance is the increased risk of upper abdominal gastrointestinal adverse events in patients who take traditional nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). This risk is dose dependent and further increased in patients who take more than one NSAID or use NSAIDs in combination with certain other medications. Some NSAIDs may also mitigate the antiplatelet benefits of aspirin and may increase blood pressure in patients with hypertension. Clinicians should be aware of potential drug interactions with OTC analgesics when prescribing new medications. Additionally, patients should be properly counseled on the appropriate and safe use of OTC analgesics. PMID:18257920

A Summary of the NASA ISS Space Debris Collision Avoidance Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph

2002-01-01

Creating and implementing a process for the mitigation of the impact hazards due to cornets and asteroids will prove to be a complex and involved process. The closest similar program is the collision avoidance process currently used for protection of the International Space Station (ISS). This process, in operation for over three years, has many similarities to the NEG risk problem. By reviewing the ISS program, a broader perspective on the complications of and requirements for a NEO risk mitigation program might be obtained. Specifically, any lessons learned and continuing issues of concern might prove useful in the development of a NEO risk assessment and mitigation program.

Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

2011-12-01

Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

Why near-miss events can decrease an individual's protective response to hurricanes.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Tinsley, Catherine H; Cronin, Matthew

2011-03-01

Prior research shows that when people perceive the risk of some hazardous event to be low, they are unlikely to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard. We believe one factor that can lower inappropriately (from a normative perspective) people's perception of the risk of a hazard is information about prior near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane), which had some nontrivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), does not because good fortune intervenes. People appear to mistake such good fortune as an indicator of resiliency. In our first study, people with near-miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance, and this was shown for both participants from the general population and individuals with specific interests in risk and natural disasters. In our second study, we consider a different mitigation decision, that is, to evacuate from a hurricane, and vary the level of statistical probability of hurricane damage. We still found a strong effect for near-miss information. Our research thus shows how people who have experienced a similar situation but escape damage because of chance will make decisions consistent with a perception that the situation is less risky than those without the past experience. We end by discussing the implications for risk communication. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana.

PubMed

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S-N; Kirby, Ryan

2016-02-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders.

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana

PubMed Central

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Kirby, Ryan

2016-01-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders. PMID:27330828

Nurses' Perceptions of Implementing Fall Prevention Interventions to Mitigate Patient-Specific Fall Risk Factors.

PubMed

Wilson, Deleise S; Montie, Mary; Conlon, Paul; Reynolds, Margaret; Ripley, Robert; Titler, Marita G

2016-08-01

Evidence-based (EB) fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors are readily available but not routinely used in practice. Few studies have examined nurses' perceptions about both the use of these EB interventions and implementation strategies designed to promote their adoption. This article reports qualitative findings of nurses' perceptions about use of EB fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risks, and implementation strategies to promote use of these interventions. The findings revealed five major themes: before-study fall prevention practices, use of EB fall prevention interventions tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors, beneficial implementation strategies, overall impact on approach to fall prevention, and challenges These findings are useful to guide nurses' engagement and use of EB fall prevention practices tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors. © The Author(s) 2016.

Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

PubMed

Geiger, Karl

2010-05-01

Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

Flight Test Approach to Adaptive Control Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pavlock, Kate Maureen; Less, James L.; Larson, David Nils

2011-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on a full-scale F-18 testbed. The validation of adaptive controls has the potential to enhance safety in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage or control surface failures. This paper describes the research interface architecture, risk mitigations, flight test approach and lessons learned of adaptive controls research.

2018 Ground Robotics Capabilities Conference and Exhibiton

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-04-11

Transportable Robot System (MTRS) Inc 1 Non -standard Equipment (approved) Explosive Ordnance Disposal Common Robotic System-Heavy (CRS-H) Inc 1 AROC: 3-Star...and engineering • AI risk mitigation methodologies and techniques are at best immature – E.g., V&V; Probabilistic software analytics; code level...controller to minimize potential UxS mishaps and unauthorized Command and Control (C2). • PSP-10 – Ensure that software systems which exhibit non

Air Force Civil Engineer, Volume 15, Number 3, 2007

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

Korea during the winter. The runway is made of pierced steel plank . (U.S. Air Force photo) Transforming Air Force Firefighting...expect the fire chief and fire marshal to inform installation leadership when the mission is potentially impacted and to advocate risk mitigation...measures, and we expect leadership to listen. The use of “manage” in the phrase indicates that FES flights are expected to manage the event to the

Combating the Insider Cyber Threat

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Moore, Andrew P.; Cappelli, Dawn M.

This article represents a collaboration between PNNL, CERT/CMU, and AFRL that describes needs and related efforts by these institutions to develop technologies and approaches to counter cyber threats by insiders to informatin systems. The main focus of this article is on the need for effective training on insider threat to raise staff awareness and encourage organizations to adopt a more effective approach to identifying potential risks and take proactive steps to mitigate them.

Mitigating risks related to facilities management.

PubMed

O'Neill, Daniel P; Scarborough, Sydney

2013-07-01

By looking at metrics focusing on the functionality, age, capital investment, transparency, and sustainability (FACTS) of their organizations' facilities, facilities management teams can build potential business cases to justify upgrading the facilities. A FACTS analysis can ensure that capital spent on facilities will produce a higher or more certain ROI than alternatives. A consistent process for managing spending helps to avoid unexpected spikes that cost the enterprise more in the long run.

Human factors engineering and design validation for the redesigned follitropin alfa pen injection device.

PubMed

Mahony, Mary C; Patterson, Patricia; Hayward, Brooke; North, Robert; Green, Dawne

2015-05-01

To demonstrate, using human factors engineering (HFE), that a redesigned, pre-filled, ready-to-use, pre-asembled follitropin alfa pen can be used to administer prescribed follitropin alfa doses safely and accurately. A failure modes and effects analysis identified hazards and harms potentially caused by use errors; risk-control measures were implemented to ensure acceptable device use risk management. Participants were women with infertility, their significant others, and fertility nurse (FN) professionals. Preliminary testing included 'Instructions for Use' (IFU) and pre-validation studies. Validation studies used simulated injections in a representative use environment; participants received prior training on pen use. User performance in preliminary testing led to IFU revisions and a change to outer needle cap design to mitigate needle stick potential. In the first validation study (49 users, 343 simulated injections), in the FN group, one observed critical use error resulted in a device design modification and another in an IFU change. A second validation study tested the mitigation strategies; previously reported use errors were not repeated. Through an iterative process involving a series of studies, modifications were made to the pen design and IFU. Simulated-use testing demonstrated that the redesigned pen can be used to administer follitropin alfa effectively and safely.

Mitigating Agricultural Diffuse Pollution: Learning from The River Eden Demonstration Test Catchment Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reaney, S. M.; Barker, P. A.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Aftab, A.; Barber, N.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Perks, M. T.; Snell, M. A.; Surridge, B.

2016-12-01

Freshwater systems continue to fail to achieve their ecological potential and provide associated ecological services due to poor water quality. A key driver of the failure to achieve good status under the EU Water Framework Directive derives from non-point (diffuse) pollution of sediment, phosphorus and nitrogen from agricultural landscapes. While many mitigation options exist, a framework is lacking which provides a holistic understanding of the impact of mitigation scheme design on catchment function and agronomics. The River Eden Demonstration Test Catchment project (2009-2017) in NW England uses an interdisciplinary approach including catchment hydrology, sediment-nutrient fluxes and farmer attitudes, to understand ecological function and diffuse pollution mitigation feature performance. Water flow (both surface and groundwater) and quality monitoring focused on three ca. 10km2 catchments with N and P measurements every 30 minutes. Ecological status was determined by monthly diatom community analysis and supplemented by macrophyte, macroinvertebrate and fish surveys. Changes in erosion potential and hydrological connectivity were monitored using extensive Landsat images and detailed UAV monitoring. Simulation modelling work utilised hydrological simulation models (CRAFT, CRUM3 and HBV-Light) and SCIMAP based risk mapping. Farmer behaviour and attitudes have been assessed with surveys, interviews and diaries. A suite of mitigation features have been installed including changes to land management - e.g. aeriation, storage features within a `treatment train', riparian fencing and woodland creation. A detailed dataset of the integrated catchment hydrological, water quality and ecological behaviour over multiple years, including a drought period and an extreme rainfall event, highlights the interaction between ecology, hydrological and nutrient dynamics that are driven by sediment and nutrients exported within a small number of high magnitude storm events. Hence these high-resolution processes must be studied in conjunction, rather than in isolation, to understand system dynamics and critically to evaluate effective mitigation schemes.

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Challenges of Tsunami Disaster and Extreme climate Events Along Coastal Region in Asia-Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhari, S.

2017-12-01

South Asia is more vulnerable to Geo disasters and impacts of climate changes in recent years. On 26 December 2004 massive waves triggered by an earthquake surged into coastal communities in Asia and East Africa with devastating force. Hitting Indonesia, Sri Lanka , Thailand and India hardest, the deadly waves swept more than 200 000 people to their deaths. Also in an another extreme climate change phenomenon during 2005 - 2006,causing heavy rains and flooding situation in the South Asia - Europe and Pacific region ,more than 100 million population in these regions are witnessing the social- economical and ecological risks and impacts due to climate changes and Geohazards. For mitigating geo-disasters, marine hazards and rehabilitation during post tsunami period, scientific knowledge is needed, requiring experienced research communities who can train the local population during tsunami rehabilitation. Several civil society institutions jointly started the initiatives on the problem identifications in management of risks in geo-disasters, tsunami rehabilitation ,Vulnerability and risk assessments for Geohazards etc., to investigate problems related to social-economic and ecological risks and management issues resulting from the December tsunami and Geo- disaster, to aid mitigation planning in affected areas and to educate scientists and local populations to form a basis for sustainable and economic solutions. The poster aims to assess the potential risk and hazard , technical issues, problems and damage arising from Tsunami in the Asia-pacific region in coastal geology, coastal ecosystems and coastal environmental systems . This poster deals with the status and issues of interactions between Human and Ocean Systems, Geo-risks, marine risks along coastal region of Asia- Pacific and also human influence on the earth system . The poster presentation focuses on capacity building of the local population, scientists and researchers for integration of human and ocean systems through Geohazards Studies on vulnerability and risk assessments along coastal regions. The poster presentation also focuses on building natural -social science research community for sustainable solutions adoptions and mitigations of impacts of extreme climate events on environment and ecosystems along coastal region.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

PubMed

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local settings of drinking water systems. The model provides a clear and holistic structure for decisions related to microbial risk mitigation. To improve the decision model, we suggest to further develop the valuation and monetisation of health effects and to refine the propagation of uncertainties and variabilities between the included methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

2010-01-01

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

Expecting the Unexpected: Radiation Hardened Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Penix, John; Mehlitz, Peter C.

2005-01-01

Radiation induced Single Event Effects (SEEs) are a serious problem for spacecraft flight software, potentially leading to a complete loss of mission. Conventional risk mitigation has been focused on hardware, leading to slow, expensive and outdated on-board computing devices, increased power consumption and launch mass. Our approach is to look at SEEs from a software perspective, and to explicitly design flight software so that it can detect and correct the majority of SEES. Radiation hardened flight software will reduce the significant residual residual risk for critical missions and flight phases, and enable more use of inexpensive and fast COTS hardware.

Menopause and Cancers.

PubMed

Einstein, Mark H; Levine, Nanci F; Nevadunsky, Nicole S

2015-09-01

Cancer is a disease of aging, and therefore is more prevalent after menopause. Menopausal symptoms resulting from cancer treatments are an important survivorship issue in cancer care. This article reviews the preventive strategies, utilization of health resources, and management of menopausal symptoms after cancer treatment. Preventive screening as informed by genetic and lifestyle risk, and lifestyle modification, may mitigate the risk of cancer and cancer mortality. Despite potential benefits to quality of life, hormone replacement is rarely prescribed to survivors of gynecologic malignancies. Special considerations are needed for the treatment and supportive care of menopausal symptoms in cancer survivors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can hazard risk be communicated through a virtual experience?

PubMed

Mitchell, J T

1997-09-01

Cyberspace, defined by William Gibson as a consensual hallucination, now refers to all computer-generated interactive environments. Virtual reality, one of a class of interactive cyberspaces, allows us to create and interact directly with objects not available in the everyday world. Despite successes in the entertainment and aviation industries, this technology has been called a 'solution in search of a problem'. The purpose of this commentary is to suggest such a problem: the inability to acquire experience with a hazard to motivate mitigation. Direct experience with a hazard has been demonstrated as a powerful incentive to adopt mitigation measures. While we lack the ability to summon hazard events at will in order to gain access to that experience, a virtual environment can provide an arena where potential victims are exposed to a hazard's effects. Immersion as an active participant within the hazard event through virtual reality may stimulate users to undertake mitigation steps that might otherwise remain undone. This paper details the possible direction in which virtual reality may be applied to hazards mitigation through a discussion of the technology, the role of hazard experience, the creation of a hazard stimulation and the issues constraining implementation.

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

PubMed

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Attachment, Neurobiology, and Mentalizing along the Psychosis Continuum.

PubMed

Debbané, Martin; Salaminios, George; Luyten, Patrick; Badoud, Deborah; Armando, Marco; Solida Tozzi, Alessandra; Fonagy, Peter; Brent, Benjamin K

2016-01-01

In this review article, we outline the evidence linking attachment adversity to psychosis, from the premorbid stages of the disorder to its clinical forms. To better understand the neurobiological mechanisms through which insecure attachment may contribute to psychosis, we identify at least five neurobiological pathways linking attachment to risk for developing psychosis. Besides its well documented influence on the hypothalamic-pituary-adrenal (HPA) axis, insecure attachment may also contribute to neurodevelopmental risk through the dopaminergic and oxytonergic systems, as well as bear influence on neuroinflammation and oxidative stress responses. We further consider the neuroscientific and behavioral studies that underpin mentalization as a suite of processes potentially moderating the risk to transition to psychotic disorders. In particular, mentalization may help the individual compensate for endophenotypical impairments in the integration of sensory and metacognitive information. We propose a model where embodied mentalization would lie at the core of a protective, resilience response mitigating the adverse and potentially pathological influence of the neurodevelopmental cascade of risk for psychosis.

Attachment, Neurobiology, and Mentalizing along the Psychosis Continuum

PubMed Central

Debbané, Martin; Salaminios, George; Luyten, Patrick; Badoud, Deborah; Armando, Marco; Solida Tozzi, Alessandra; Fonagy, Peter; Brent, Benjamin K.

2016-01-01

In this review article, we outline the evidence linking attachment adversity to psychosis, from the premorbid stages of the disorder to its clinical forms. To better understand the neurobiological mechanisms through which insecure attachment may contribute to psychosis, we identify at least five neurobiological pathways linking attachment to risk for developing psychosis. Besides its well documented influence on the hypothalamic-pituary-adrenal (HPA) axis, insecure attachment may also contribute to neurodevelopmental risk through the dopaminergic and oxytonergic systems, as well as bear influence on neuroinflammation and oxidative stress responses. We further consider the neuroscientific and behavioral studies that underpin mentalization as a suite of processes potentially moderating the risk to transition to psychotic disorders. In particular, mentalization may help the individual compensate for endophenotypical impairments in the integration of sensory and metacognitive information. We propose a model where embodied mentalization would lie at the core of a protective, resilience response mitigating the adverse and potentially pathological influence of the neurodevelopmental cascade of risk for psychosis. PMID:27597820

Using GIS in risk analysis: a case study of hazardous waste transport.

PubMed

Lovett, A A; Parfitt, J P; Brainard, J S

1997-10-01

This paper provides an illustration of how a geographic information system (GIS) can be used in risk analysis. It focuses on liquid hazardous waste transport and utilizes records archived by the London Waste Regulatory Authority. This data source provides information on the origin and destination of each waste stream, but not the route followed during transport. A GIS was therefore employed to predict the paths used, taking into account different routing criteria and characteristics of the available road network. Details were also assembled on population distribution and ground-water vulnerability, thus providing a basis for evaluating the potential consequences of a waste spillage during transport. Four routing scenarios were implemented to identify sections of road which consistently saw heavy traffic. These simulations also highlighted that some interventions could lead to risk tradeoffs rather than hazard mitigation. Many parts of the research would not have been possible without a GIS, and the study demonstrates the considerable potential of such software in environmental risk assessment and management.

Quantifying the Benefit of Early Climate Change Mitigation in Avoiding Biodiversity Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R.; Vanderwal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J.; Atkinson, I. M.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T.; Shoo, L.; Jarvis, A.; Williams, S.; Lowe, J. A.

2014-12-01

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss are presented. Previous studies have projected widespread global and regional impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, these have focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change induced biodiversity loss projected for the 2080s. Furthermore, despite the large number of studies addressing extinction risks in particular species groups, few studies have explored the issue of potential range loss in common and widespread species. Our study is a comprehensive global scale analysis of 48,786 common and widespread species. We show that without climate change mitigation, 57+/-6% of the plants and 34+/-7% of the animals studied are likely to lose over 50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. This estimate incorporates realistic, taxon-specific dispersal rates. With stringent mitigation, in which emissions peak in 2016 and are reduced by 5% annually thereafter, these losses are reduced by 60%. Furthermore, with stringent mitigation, global temperature rises more slowly, allowing an additional three decades for biodiversity to adapt to a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels. The work also shows that even with mitigation not all the impacts can now be avoided, and ecosystems and biodiversity generally has a very limited capacity to adapt. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, for example if emissions do not peak until 2030, the percentage of losses that can be avoided declines to 40%. Since even small declines in common and widespread species can disrupt ecosystem function and services, these results indicate that without mitigation, globally widespread losses in ecosystem service provision are to be expected.

Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

2009-07-01

Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.

Mitigation of building-related polychlorinated biphenyls in indoor air of a school

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Sealants and other building materials sold in the U.S. from 1958 - 1971 were commonly manufactured with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at percent quantities by weight. Volatilization of PCBs from construction materials has been reported to produce PCB levels in indoor air that exceed health protective guideline values. The discovery of PCBs in indoor air of schools can produce numerous complications including disruption of normal operations and potential risks to health. Understanding the dynamics of building-related PCBs in indoor air is needed to identify effective strategies for managing potential exposures and risks. This paper reports on the efficacy of selected engineering controls implemented to mitigate concentrations of PCBs in indoor air. Methods Three interventions (ventilation, contact encapsulation, and physical barriers) were evaluated in an elementary school with PCB-containing caulk and elevated PCB concentrations in indoor air. Fluorescent light ballasts did not contain PCBs. Following implementation of the final intervention, measurements obtained over 14 months were used to assess the efficacy of the mitigation methods over time as well as temporal variability of PCBs in indoor air. Results Controlling for air exchange rates and temperature, the interventions produced statistically significant (p < 0.05) reductions in concentrations of PCBs in indoor air of the school. The mitigation measures remained effective over the course of the entire follow-up period. After all interventions were implemented, PCB levels in indoor air were associated with indoor temperature. In a "broken-stick" regression model with a node at 20°C, temperature explained 79% of the variability of indoor PCB concentrations over time (p < 0.001). Conclusions Increasing outdoor air ventilation, encapsulating caulk, and constructing a physical barrier over the encapsulated material were shown to be effective at reducing exposure concentrations of PCBs in indoor air of a school and also preventing direct contact with PCB caulk. In-place management methods such as these avoid the disruption and higher costs of demolition, disposal and reconstruction required when PCB-containing building materials are removed from a school. Because of the influence of temperature on indoor air PCB levels, risk assessment results based on short-term measurements, e.g., a single day or season, may be erroneous and could lead to sub-optimal allocation of resources. PMID:22490055

Development of a Prediction Model for Stress Fracture During an Intensive Physical Training Program: The Royal Marines Commandos

PubMed Central

Sanchez-Santos, Maria T.; Davey, Trish; Leyland, Kirsten M.; Allsopp, Adrian J.; Lanham-New, Susan A.; Judge, Andrew; Arden, Nigel K.; Fallowfield, Joanne L.

2017-01-01

Background: Stress fractures (SFs) are one of the more severe overuse injuries in military training, and therefore, knowledge of potential risk factors is needed to assist in developing mitigating strategies. Purpose: To develop a prediction model for risk of SF in Royal Marines (RM) recruits during an arduous military training program. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: RM recruits (N = 1082; age range, 16-33 years) who enrolled between September 2009 and July 2010 were prospectively followed through the 32-week RM training program. SF diagnosis was confirmed from a positive radiograph or magnetic resonance imaging scan. Potential risk factors assessed at week 1 included recruit characteristics, anthropometric assessment, dietary supplement use, lifestyle habits, fitness assessment, blood samples, 25(OH)D, bone strength as measured by heel broadband ultrasound attention, history of physical activity, and previous and current food intake. A logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression with 10-fold cross-validation was used to select potential predictors among 47 candidate variables. Model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination (c-index) and calibration. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation of the developed model and to quantify optimism. Results: A total of 86 (8%) volunteer recruits presented at least 1 SF during training. Twelve variables were identified as the most important risk factors of SF. Variables strongly associated with SF were age, body weight, pretraining weightbearing exercise, pretraining cycling, and childhood intake of milk and milk products. The c-index for the prediction model, which represents the model performance in future volunteers, was 0.73 (optimism-corrected c-index, 0.68). Although 25(OH)D and VO2max had only a borderline statistically significant association with SF, the inclusion of these factors improved the performance of the model. Conclusion: These findings will assist in identifying recruits at greater risk of SF during training and will support interventions to mitigate this injury risk. However, external validation of the model is still required. PMID:28804727

Assessment and management of human health risk from toxic metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban stormwater arising from anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-02-01

Toxic metals (TMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban stormwater pose risk to human health, thereby constraining its reuse potential. Based on the hypothesis that stormwater quality is primarily influenced by anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion, the primary focus of the research study was to analyse the impacts on human health risk from TMs and PAHs in urban stormwater and thereby develop a quantitative risk assessment model. The study found that anthropogenic activities and traffic congestion exert influence on the risk posed by TMs and PAHs in stormwater from commercial and residential areas. Motor vehicle related businesses (FVS) and traffic congestion (TC) were identified as two parameters which need to be included as independent variables to improve the model. Based on the study outcomes, approaches for mitigating the risk associated with TMs and PAHs in urban stormwater are discussed. Additionally, a roadmap is presented for the assessment and management of the risk arising from these pollutants. The study outcomes are expected to contribute to reducing the human health risk associated urban stormwater pollution and thereby enhance its reuse potential. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

2008-01-01

High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL, HEALTH AND SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT ON THE INTEGRATION OF A PROCESS UTILIZING LOW-ENERGY SOLVENTS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE ENABLED BY A COMBINATION OF ENZYMES AND VACUUM REGENERATION WITH A SUBCRITICAL PC POWER PLANT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fitzgerald, David; Vidal, Rafael; Russell, Tania

2014-12-31

The results of the preliminary environmental, health and safety (EH&S) risk assessment for an enzyme-activated potassium carbonate (K2CO3) solution post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) plant, integrated with a subcritical pulverized coal (PC) power plant, are presented. The expected emissions during normal steady-state operation have been estimated utilizing models of the PCC plant developed in AspenTech’s AspenPlus® software, bench scale test results from the University of Kentucky, and industrial experience of emission results from a slipstream PCC plant utilizing amine based solvents. A review of all potential emission species and their sources was undertaken that identified two credible emission sources, the absorbermore » off-gas that is vented to atmosphere via a stack and the waste removed from the PCC plant in the centrifuge used to reclaim enzyme and solvent. The conditions and compositions of the emissions were calculated and the potential EH&S effects were considered as well as legislative compliance requirements. Potential mitigation methods for emissions during normal operation have been proposed and solutions to mitigate uncontrolled releases of species have been considered. The potential emissions were found to pose no significant EH&S concerns and were compliant with the Federal legislation reviewed. The limitations in predicting full scale plant performance from bench scale tests have been noted and further work on a larger scale test unit is recommended to reduce the level of uncertainty.« less

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

A comparative evaluation of the regulation of GM crops or products containing dsRNA and suggested improvements to risk assessments.

PubMed

Heinemann, Jack A; Agapito-Tenfen, Sarah Zanon; Carman, Judy A

2013-05-01

Changing the nature, kind and quantity of particular regulatory-RNA molecules through genetic engineering can create biosafety risks. While some genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are intended to produce new regulatory-RNA molecules, these may also arise in other GMOs not intended to express them. To characterise, assess and then mitigate the potential adverse effects arising from changes to RNA requires changing current approaches to food or environmental risk assessments of GMOs. We document risk assessment advice offered to government regulators in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil during official risk evaluations of GM plants for use as human food or for release into the environment (whether for field trials or commercial release), how the regulator considered those risks, and what that experience teaches us about the GMO risk assessment framework. We also suggest improvements to the process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil water management practices (terraces) helped to mitigate the 2015 drought in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kosmowski, Frédéric

2018-05-31

While the benefits of soil water management practices relative to soil erosion have been extensively documented, evidence regarding their effect on yields is inconclusive. Following a strong El-Niño, some regions of Ethiopia experienced major droughts during the 2015/16 agricultural season. Using the propensity scores method on a nationally representative survey in Ethiopia, this study investigates the effect of two widely adopted soil water management practices - terraces and contour bunds - on yields and assesses their potential to mitigate the effects of climate change. It is shown that at the national level, terraced plots have slightly lower yields than non-terraced plots. However, data support the hypothesis that terraced plots acted as a buffer against the 2015 Ethiopian drought, while contour bunds did not. This study provides evidence that terraces have the potential to help farmer deal with current climate risks. These results can inform the design of climate change adaptation policies and improve targeting of soil water management practices in Ethiopia.

Bacterial uptake of antibiotics in model unsaturated systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, W.; Chen, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, G.; Gao, Y.; Boyd, S. A.; Zhu, D.; Li, H.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic antibiotics are ubiquitously present in the environment due to large uses in human medicine and animal agriculture, and are causing unintended consequence to human and ecosystem health. Bacterial uptake of antibiotics could exert selection pressure on antibiotic resistance development among bacteria population. Therefore, understanding environmental factors controlling bioavailability of antibiotics to bacteria is critical to better assessing exposure risks and developing mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, conventional bioavailability assays are often performed in water-saturated systems that do not represent unsaturated soils where most bacteria live, therefore neglecting soil water as a controlling factor in determining the extent of antibiotic bacterial uptake. Therefore, we propose to study bacterial uptake of antibiotics in model unsaturated systems using GFP-tagged Escherichia coli bioreporter for tetracyclines. Our preliminary studies demonstrated the important role of water content (or water matric potential) in determining the bioavailability of antibiotics, and complex interactions of water potential, tetracycline diffusion, and E. coli growth. Therefore, unsaturated processes are important for understanding antibiotic resistance development and developing mitigation strategies.

Recommendations for dealing with waste contaminated with Ebola virus: a Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points approach.

PubMed

Edmunds, Kelly L; Elrahman, Samira Abd; Bell, Diana J; Brainard, Julii; Dervisevic, Samir; Fedha, Tsimbiri P; Few, Roger; Howard, Guy; Lake, Iain; Maes, Peter; Matofari, Joseph; Minnigh, Harvey; Mohamedani, Ahmed A; Montgomery, Maggie; Morter, Sarah; Muchiri, Edward; Mudau, Lutendo S; Mutua, Benedict M; Ndambuki, Julius M; Pond, Katherine; Sobsey, Mark D; van der Es, Mike; Zeitoun, Mark; Hunter, Paul R

2016-06-01

To assess, within communities experiencing Ebola virus outbreaks, the risks associated with the disposal of human waste and to generate recommendations for mitigating such risks. A team with expertise in the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points framework identified waste products from the care of individuals with Ebola virus disease and constructed, tested and confirmed flow diagrams showing the creation of such products. After listing potential hazards associated with each step in each flow diagram, the team conducted a hazard analysis, determined critical control points and made recommendations to mitigate the transmission risks at each control point. The collection, transportation, cleaning and shared use of blood-soiled fomites and the shared use of latrines contaminated with blood or bloodied faeces appeared to be associated with particularly high levels of risk of Ebola virus transmission. More moderate levels of risk were associated with the collection and transportation of material contaminated with bodily fluids other than blood, shared use of latrines soiled with such fluids, the cleaning and shared use of fomites soiled with such fluids, and the contamination of the environment during the collection and transportation of blood-contaminated waste. The risk of the waste-related transmission of Ebola virus could be reduced by the use of full personal protective equipment, appropriate hand hygiene and an appropriate disinfectant after careful cleaning. Use of the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points framework could facilitate rapid responses to outbreaks of emerging infectious disease.

A QRM Discussion of Microbial Contamination of Non-sterile Drug Products, Using FDA and EMA Warning Letters Recorded between 2008 and 2016.

PubMed

Santos, Ana M C; Doria, Mara S; Meirinhos-Soares, Luís; Almeida, António J; Menezes, José C

2018-01-01

Microbial quality control of non-sterile drug products has been a concern to regulatory agencies and the pharmaceutical industry since the 1960s. Despite being an old challenge to companies, microbial contamination still affects a high number of manufacturers of non-sterile products. Consequences go well beyond the obvious direct costs related to batch rejections or product recalls, as human lives and a company's reputation are significantly impacted if such events occur. To better manage risk and establish effective mitigation strategies, it is necessary to understand the microbial hazards involved in non-sterile drug products manufacturing, be able to evaluate their potential impact on final product quality, and apply mitigation actions. Herein we discuss the most likely root causes involved in microbial contaminations referenced in warning letters issued by US health authorities and non-compliance reports issued by European health authorities over a period of several years. The quality risk management tools proposed were applied to the data gathered from those databases, and a generic risk ranking was provided based on a panel of non-sterile drug product manufacturers that was assembled and given the opportunity to perform the risk assessments. That panel identified gaps and defined potential mitigation actions, based on their own experience of potential risks expected for their processes. Major findings clearly indicate that the manufacturers affected by the warning letters should focus their attention on process improvements and microbial control strategies, especially those related to microbial analysis and raw material quality control. Additionally, the WLs considered frequently referred to failures in quality-related issues, which indicates that the quality commitment should be reinforced at most companies to avoid microbiological contaminations. LAY ABSTRACT: Microbial contamination of drug products affects the quality of non-sterile drug products produced by numerous manufacturers, representing a major risk to patients. It is necessary to understand the microbial hazards involved in the manufacturing process and evaluate their impact on final product quality so that effective prevention strategies can be implemented. A risk-based classification of most likely root causes for microbial contamination found in the warning letters issued by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency is proposed. To validate the likely root causes extracted from the warning letters, a subject matter expert panel made of several manufacturers was formed and consulted. A quality risk management approach to assess microbiological contamination of non-sterile drug products is proposed for the identification of microbial hazards involved in the manufacturing process. To enable ranking of microbial contamination risks, quality risk management metrics related to criticality and overall risk were applied. The results showed that manufacturers of non-sterile drug products should improve their microbial control strategy, with special attention to quality controls of raw materials, primary containers, and closures. Besides that, they should invest in a more robust quality system and culture. As a start, manufacturers may consider investigating their specific microbiological risks, adressing their sites' own microbial ecology, type of manufacturing processes, and dosage form characteristics, as these may lead to increased contamination risks. Authorities should allow and enforce innovative, more comprehensive, and more effective approaches to in-process contamination monitoring and controls. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Plume Modeling and Simulation for the Lift-Off Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strutzenberg, L. L.; Dougherty, N. S.; Liever, P. A.; West, J. S.; Smith, S. D.

2007-01-01

This paper details advances being made in the development of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes numerical simulation tools, models, and methods for the integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle at launch. The conceptual model and modeling approach described includes the development of multiple computational models to appropriately analyze the potential debris transport for critical debris sources at Lift-Off. The conceptual model described herein involves the integration of propulsion analysis for the nozzle/plume flow with the overall 3D vehicle flowfield at Lift-Off. Debris Transport Analyses are being performed using the Shuttle Lift-Off models to assess the risk to the vehicle from Lift-Off debris and appropriately prioritized mitigation of potential debris sources to continue to reduce vehicle risk. These integrated simulations are being used to evaluate plume-induced debris environments where the multi-plume interactions with the launch facility can potentially accelerate debris particles toward the vehicle.

Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target.

PubMed

Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Frölicher, Thomas L

2016-12-23

Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policy-makers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5° to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Roadmap to risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) success

PubMed Central

Balian, John D.; Malhotra, Rachpal; Perentesis, Valerie

2010-01-01

Medical safety-related risk management is a rapidly evolving and increasingly important aspect of drug approval and market longevity. To effectively meet the challenges of this new era, we describe a risk management roadmap that proactively yet practically anticipates risk-management requirements, provides the foundation for enduring yet appropriately flexible risk-management practices, and leverages these techniques to efficiently and effectively utilize risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS)/risk minimization programs as market access enablers. This fully integrated risk-management paradigm creates exciting opportunities for newer tools, techniques, and approaches to more successfully optimize product development, approval, and commercialization, with patients as the ultimate beneficiaries. PMID:25083193

An Earthling to an Astronaut: Medical Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Jeffrey R.

2011-01-01

Humans can travel safely into space in low Earth orbit (LEO) or to near-Earth objects if several medical, physiological, environmental, and human factors issues risks are mitigated. Research must be performed in order to set standards in these four areas, and current NASA standards are contained in the Space Flight Human System Standards volumes 1 and 2, and crew medical certification standards. These three sets of standards drive all of the clinical, biomedical research and environmental technology development for the NASA human space flight program. These standards also drive the identification of specific risks to crew health and safety, and we currently manage 65 human system risks within the human space flight program. Each risk has a specific program of research, technology development, and development of operational procedures to mitigate the risks. Some of the more important risks tat will be discussed in this talk include exposure to radiation, behavioral health due to confinement in a closed cabin, physiological changes such as loss of bone, muscle and exercise capability, reduction in immune system capability, environmental threats of maintaining an adequate atmosphere and water for drinking, avoidance of toxic or infectious material, protection of hearing, and human factors issues of equipment and task design. A nutritious and varied food supply must also be provided. All of these risks will be discussed and current strategies for mitigating these risks for long-duration human space flight. In mitigating these 65 human system risks, novel approaches to problem solving must be employed to find the most appropriate research and technology based applications. Some risk mitigations are developed internally to NASA while others are found through research grants, technology procurements, and more recently open innovation techniques to seek solutions from the global technical community. Examples and results will be presented from all of these approaches including the more recent use of prizes to stimulate innovation.

Insurability and mitigation of flood losses in private households in Germany.

PubMed

Thieken, Annegret H; Petrow, Theresia; Kreibich, Heidi; Merz, Bruno

2006-04-01

In Germany, flood insurance is provided by private insurers as a supplement to building or contents insurance. This article presents the results of a survey of insurance companies with regard to eligibility conditions for flood insurance changes after August 2002, when a severe flood caused 1.8 billion euro of insured losses in the Elbe and the Danube catchment areas, and the general role of insurance in flood risk management in Germany. Besides insurance coverage, governmental funding and public donations played an important role in loss compensation after the August 2002 flood. Therefore, this article also analyzes flood loss compensation, risk awareness, and mitigation in insured and uninsured private households. Insured households received loss compensation earlier. They also showed slightly better risk awareness and mitigation strategies. Appropriate incentives should be combined with flood insurance in order to strengthen future private flood loss mitigation. However, there is some evidence that the surveyed insurance companies do little to encourage precautionary measures. To overcome this problem, flood hazards and mitigation strategies should be better communicated to both insurance companies and property owners.

Vegetated Ditches for the Mitigation of Pesticides Runoff in the Po Valley.

PubMed

Otto, Stefan; Pappalardo, Salvatore E; Cardinali, Alessandra; Masin, Roberta; Zanin, Giuseppe; Borin, Maurizio

2016-01-01

In intensive agricultural systems runoff is one of the major potential diffuse pollution pathways for pesticides and poses a risk to surface water. Ditches are common in the Po Valley and can potentially provide runoff mitigation for the protection of watercourses. The effectiveness depends on ditch characteristics, so there is an urgent need for site-specific field trials. The use of a fugacity model (multimedia model) can allows recognition of the mitigation main processes. A field experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the mitigation capacity of a typical vegetated ditch, and results were compared with predictions by a fugacity model. To evaluate herbicide mitigation after an extreme runoff, the ditch was flooded with water containing mesotrione, S-metolachlor and terbuthylazine. Two other subsequent floods with uncontaminated water were applied 27 and 82 days later to evaluate herbicides release. Results show that the ditch can immediately reduce runoff concentration of herbicides by at least 50% even in extreme flooding conditions. The half-distances were about 250 m. As a general rule, a runoff of 1 mm from 5 ha is mitigated by 99% in 100 m of vegetated ditch. Herbicides retention in the vegetated ditch was reversible, and the second flood mobilized 0.03-0.2% of the previous one, with a concentration below the drinking water limit of 0.1 μg L(-1). No herbicide was detected in the third flood, because the residual amount in the ditch was too low. Fugacity model results show that specific physical-chemical parameters may be used and a specific soil-sediment-plant compartment included for modelling herbicides behaviour in a vegetated ditch, and confirm that accumulation is low or negligible for herbicides with a half-life of 40 days or less. Shallow vegetated ditches can thus be included in a general agri-environment scheme for the mitigation of pesticides runoff together with wetlands and linear buffer strips. These structures are present in the landscape, and their environmental role can be exploited by proper management.

Vegetated Ditches for the Mitigation of Pesticides Runoff in the Po Valley

PubMed Central

Pappalardo, Salvatore E.; Cardinali, Alessandra; Masin, Roberta; Zanin, Giuseppe; Borin, Maurizio

2016-01-01

In intensive agricultural systems runoff is one of the major potential diffuse pollution pathways for pesticides and poses a risk to surface water. Ditches are common in the Po Valley and can potentially provide runoff mitigation for the protection of watercourses. The effectiveness depends on ditch characteristics, so there is an urgent need for site-specific field trials. The use of a fugacity model (multimedia model) can allows recognition of the mitigation main processes. A field experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the mitigation capacity of a typical vegetated ditch, and results were compared with predictions by a fugacity model. To evaluate herbicide mitigation after an extreme runoff, the ditch was flooded with water containing mesotrione, S-metolachlor and terbuthylazine. Two other subsequent floods with uncontaminated water were applied 27 and 82 days later to evaluate herbicides release. Results show that the ditch can immediately reduce runoff concentration of herbicides by at least 50% even in extreme flooding conditions. The half-distances were about 250 m. As a general rule, a runoff of 1 mm from 5 ha is mitigated by 99% in 100 m of vegetated ditch. Herbicides retention in the vegetated ditch was reversible, and the second flood mobilized 0.03-0.2% of the previous one, with a concentration below the drinking water limit of 0.1 μg L-1. No herbicide was detected in the third flood, because the residual amount in the ditch was too low. Fugacity model results show that specific physical-chemical parameters may be used and a specific soil-sediment-plant compartment included for modelling herbicides behaviour in a vegetated ditch, and confirm that accumulation is low or negligible for herbicides with a half-life of 40 days or less. Shallow vegetated ditches can thus be included in a general agri-environment scheme for the mitigation of pesticides runoff together with wetlands and linear buffer strips. These structures are present in the landscape, and their environmental role can be exploited by proper management. PMID:27070781

Colonization of UK coastal realignment sites by mosquitoes: implications for design, management, and public health.

PubMed

Medlock, J M; Vaux, A G C

2013-06-01

Coastal realignment is now widely instituted in the UK as part of local flood risk management plans to compensate for the loss of European protected habitat and to mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and coastal squeeze. Coastal aquatic habitats have long been known to provide suitable habitats for brackish-water mosquitoes and historically, coastal marshes were considered to support anopheline mosquito populations that were responsible for local malaria transmission. This study surveyed the eight largest managed realignment (MRA) sites in England (Essex and the Humber) for mosquito habitats. The apparent absence of anopheline mosquitoes exploiting aquatic habitats at all of these sites suggests that the risk of malaria associated with MRA sites is currently negligible. However, three of the eight sites supported populations of two nuisance and potential arboviral vector species, Aedes detritus and Aedes caspius. The aquatic habitats that supported mosquitoes resulted from a) specific design aspects of the new sea wall (ballast to mitigate wave action and constructed saline borrow ditches) that could be designed out or managed or b) isolated pools created through silt accretion or expansion of flooded zones to neighbouring pasture. The public health risks and recommendations for management are discussed in this report. This report highlights the need for pro-active public health impact assessments prior to MRA development in consultation with the Health Protection Agency, as well as the need for a case-by-case approach to design and management to mitigate mosquito or mosquito-borne disease issues now and in the future. © 2013 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Magnetic Fields on the National Ignition Facility (MagNIF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mason, D.; Folta, J.

2016-08-12

A magnetized target capability on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been investigated. Stakeholders’ needs and project feasibility analysis were considered in order to down-select from a wide variety of different potential magnetic field magnitudes and volumes. From the large range of different target platforms, laser configurations, and diagnostics configurations of interest to the stakeholders, the gas-pipe platform has been selected for the first round of magnetized target experiments. Gas pipe targets are routinely shot on the NIF and provide unique value for external collaborators. High-level project goals have been established including an experimentallymore » relevant 20Tesla magnetic field magnitude. The field will be achieved using pulsed power-driven coils. A system architecture has been proposed. The pulsed power drive system will be located in the NIF target bay. This decision provides improved maintainability and mitigates equipment safety risks associated with explosive failure of the drive capacitor. High-level and first-level subsystem requirements have been established. Requirements have been included for two distinct coil designs – full solenoid and quasi-Helmholtz. A Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been performed and documented. Additional requirements have been derived from the mitigations included in the FMEA document. A project plan is proposed. The plan includes a first phase of electromagnetic simulations to assess whether the design will meet performance requirements, then a second phase of risk mitigation projects to address the areas of highest technical risk. The duration from project kickoff to the first magnetized target shot is approximately 29 months.« less

Pedestrian injury mitigation by autonomous braking.

PubMed

Rosén, Erik; Källhammer, Jan-Erik; Eriksson, Dick; Nentwich, Matthias; Fredriksson, Rikard; Smith, Kip

2010-11-01

The objective of this study was to calculate the potential effectiveness of a pedestrian injury mitigation system that autonomously brakes the car prior to impact. The effectiveness was measured by the reduction of fatally and severely injured pedestrians. The database from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) was queried for pedestrians hit by the front of cars from 1999 to 2007. Case by case information on vehicle and pedestrian velocities and trajectories were analysed to estimate the field of view needed for a vehicle-based sensor to detect the pedestrians one second prior to the crash. The pre-impact braking system was assumed to activate the brakes one second prior to crash and to provide a braking deceleration up to the limit of the road surface conditions, but never to exceed 0.6 g. New impact speeds were then calculated for pedestrians that would have been detected by the sensor. These calculations assumed that all pedestrians who were within a given field of view but not obstructed by surrounding objects would be detected. The changes in fatality and severe injury risks were quantified using risk curves derived by logistic regression of the accident data. Summing the risks for all pedestrians, relationships between mitigation effectiveness, sensor field of view, braking initiation time, and deceleration were established. The study documents that the effectiveness at reducing fatally (severely) injured pedestrians in frontal collisions with cars reached 40% (27%) at a field of view of 40 degrees. Increasing the field of view further led to only marginal improvements in effectiveness. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overcoming the risk of inaction from emissions uncertainty in smallholder agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berry, N. J.; Ryan, C. M.

2013-03-01

The potential for improving productivity and increasing the resilience of smallholder agriculture, while also contributing to climate change mitigation, has recently received considerable political attention (Beddington et al 2012). Financial support for improving smallholder agriculture could come from performance-based funding including sale of carbon credits or certified commodities, payments for ecosystem services, and nationally appropriate mitigation action (NAMA) budgets, as well as more traditional sources of development and environment finance. Monitoring the greenhouse gas fluxes associated with changes to agricultural practice is needed for performance-based mitigation funding, and efforts are underway to develop tools to quantify mitigation achieved and assess trade-offs and synergies between mitigation and other livelihood and environmental priorities (Olander 2012). High levels of small scale variability in carbon stocks and emissions in smallholder agricultural systems (Ziegler et al 2012) mean that data intensive approaches are needed for precise and unbiased mitigation monitoring. The cost of implementing such monitoring programmes is likely to be high, and this introduces the risk that projects will not be developed in areas where there is the greatest need for agricultural improvements, which are likely to correspond with areas where existing data or research infrastructure are lacking. When improvements to livelihoods and food security are expected as co-benefits of performance-based mitigation finance, the risk of inaction is borne by the rural poor as well as the global climate. In situ measurement of carbon accumulation in smallholders' soils are not usually feasible because of the costs associated with sampling in a heterogeneous landscape, although technological advances could improve the situation (Milori et al 2012). Alternatives to in situ measurement are to estimate greenhouse gas fluxes by extrapolating information from existing research to other areas with similar land uses and environmental conditions, or to combine information on land use activities with process-based models that describe expected emissions and carbon accumulation under specified conditions. Unfortunately long-term studies that have measured biomass and soil organic carbon accumulation in smallholder agriculture are scarce, and default values developed for national level emissions assessments (IPCC 2006) fail to capture local variability and may not scale linearly, so cannot be applied at the project scale without introducing considerable uncertainty and the potential for bias. If there is reliable information on the agricultural activities and environmental conditions at a project site, process-based models can provide accurate estimations of agricultural greenhouse gas fluxes that capture temporal and spatial variability (Olander 2012) but collecting the necessary data to parameterize and drive the models can be costly and time consuming. Assessing and monitoring greenhouse gas fluxes in smallholder agriculture therefore involves a balance between the resources required to collect information from thousands of smallholders across large areas, and the accuracy and precision of model predictions. Accuracy, or the absence of bias, is clearly an important consideration in the quantification of mitigation benefits for performance-based finance since a bias towards over-estimation of mitigation achieved would risk misallocating limited finance to projects that have not achieved mitigation benefits. Such a bias would also lead to a net increase in emissions if credits were used to offset emissions elsewhere. The accuracy of model predictions is related to uncertainty in model input data, which affects the precision of predictions, and errors in the model structure (Olander 2012). To limit the risk that projects receive credit for mitigation benefits that are not real, a precise-or-conservative approach to carbon accounting has emerged that requires projects to report mitigation benefits to a prescribed level of precision—for example with a 90% confidence interval that is less than 20% of the estimated mitigation benefit; and if this level of precision is not reached then the lower confidence limit of the value is encouraged (VCS 2012). This helps to ensure projects that lack precision in their estimates are biased towards an underestimation of mitigation benefits, which helps limit the risk of increasing net greenhouse gas emissions. It can also mean that finance from the sale of emission reduction certificates is insufficient to support smallholder agricultural projects without donor assistance to cover the cost of project establishment (Seebauer et al 2012). Understanding the mitigation benefits of improving agricultural practice is important for many purposes other than developing carbon offsets however, and with appropriate accounting approaches risks to smallholders can be reduced and scarce resources channelled to improving land use practices. Less precision is tolerable when making payments for a broad range ecosystem services, or assessing the impacts of donor support, than it is for industrial carbon offsets. Approaches that have greater uncertainty in expected emission reductions or removals may therefore be more appropriate if there is an equal emphasis on the livelihood and environmental benefits of projects as there is on mitigation benefits. One way to balance the risk of inaction against the need for accuracy is to use process-based models in greenhouse gas accounting and decision support tools, which give users control over the precision and cost of their accounting. Such models can be parameterized and driven using readily available information or best estimates for input data, as well as site specific environmental and activity data. The potential for bias in model predictions can be limited by making use of appropriate models that are validated against regionally specific data. Although process-based models have been adopted for quantifying mitigation benefit in smallholder agriculture systems (for example Seebauer et al 2012), their use is currently limited to those with specialist knowledge or access to detailed site specific information. Web-based tools that link existing global, regional, and local environmental data with process-based models (such as RothC (Coleman and Jenkinson 1996), CENTURY (Parton et al 1987), DNDC (Li et al 1994) and DAYCENT (Del Grosso et al 2002)) that have been validated for specific areas allow users to generate initial estimates of the carbon sequestration potential of agricultural systems simply by specifying the location and intervention. This can support assessments of the feasibility of supporting these interventions through various funding sources. The same tools can also generate accurate, site specific assessments and monitoring to varying levels of detail, when required, given the inclusion of new data collected in situ . When accounting for greenhouse gases in smallholder agriculture systems users should be free to decide whether it is worthwhile to invest in collecting input data to estimate mitigation benefits with sufficient precision to meet the requirements for carbon offsets, or if greater uncertainty is tolerable. By using tools that do not require specialist support and accepting estimates of mitigation benefits that are less precise, and not necessarily conservative, those providing performance-based finance can help ensure that a greater proportion of limited budgets are spent on the activities that directly benefit smallholders and that are likely to benefit the global climate. The Small-Holder Agriculture Monitoring and Baseline Assessment methodology and prototype tool (SHAMBA 2012), which has been trialled with fifteen agroforestry and conservation agriculture projects in Malawi and is currently under review for validation under the Plan Vivo Standard (Plan Vivo 2012), provides a proof of this concept and a platform on which greater functionality and flexibility can be built. We hope that this, and other similar initiatives, will deliver approaches to greenhouse gas accounting that reduce risks and maximize benefits to smallholder farmers. References Beddington J R et al 2012 What next for agriculture after Durban? Science 335 289-90 Coleman K and Jenkinson D S 1996 RothC 26.3 a model for the turnover of carbon in soil Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter Models Using Existing, Long-Term Datasets ed D S Powlson, P Smith and J U Smith (Heidelberg: Springer) Del Grosso S J, Ojima D S, Parton W J, Mosier A R, Petereson G A and Schimel D S 2002 Simulated effects of dryland cropping intensification on soil organic matter and greenhouse gas exchanges using the DAYCENT ecosystem model Environ. Pollut. 116 S75-83 IPCC (Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change) 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (Hayama: IGES) (www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html) Li C, Frolking S and Harris R 1994 Modeling carbon biogeochemistry in agricultural soils Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 8 237-54 Milori D M B P, Segini A, Da Silva W T L, Posadas A, Mares V, Quiroz R and Ladislau M N 2012 Emerging techniques for soil carbon measurements Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture ed E Wollenberg, A Nihart, M-L Tapio-Bistrom and M Greig-Gran (Abingdon: Earthscan) Olander L P 2012 Using biogeochemical process models to quantify greenhouse gas mitigation from agricultural management Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture ed E Wollenberg, A Nihart, M-L Tapio-Bistrom and M Greig-Gran (Abingdon: Earthscan) Parton W J, Schimel D S, Cole C V and Ojima D S 1987 Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 51 1173-9 Plan Vivo 2012 The Plan Vivo Standard For Community Payments for Ecosystem Services Programmes Version 2012 (available from: www.planvivo.org/) Seebauer M et al 2012 Carbon accounting for smallholder agricultural soil carbon projects Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture ed E Wollenberg, A Nihart, M-L Tapio-Bistrom and M Greig-Gran (Abingdon: Earthscan) SHAMBA (Small-Holder Agriculture Monitoring and Baseline Assessment) 2012 Project webpage: http://tinyurl.com/shambatool VCS (Verified Carbon Standard) 2012 Veified Carbon Standard Requiements Document Version 3.2 (http://v-c-s.org/program-documents) Ziegler A D et al 2012 Carbon outcomes of major land-cover transitions in SE Asia: great uncertainties and REDD+ policy implications Glob. Change Biol. 18 3087-99

The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

2012-04-01

The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

RISK D/C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dias, W. C.

1994-01-01

RISK D/C is a prototype program which attempts to do program risk modeling for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in the Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment is made with respect to risk events, their probabilities, and the severities of potential results. The program allows risk mitigation strategies to be proposed for an exploration program architecture and to be ranked with respect to their effectiveness. RISK D/C allows for the fact that risk assessment in early planning phases is subjective. Although specific to the SEI in its present form, RISK D/C can be used as a framework for developing a risk assessment program for other specific uses. RISK D/C is organized into files, or stacks, of information, including the architecture, the hazard, and the risk event stacks. Although predefined, all stacks can be upgraded by a user. The architecture stack contains information concerning the general program alternatives, which are subsequently broken down into waypoints, missions, and mission phases. The hazard stack includes any background condition which could result in a risk event. A risk event is anything unfavorable that could happen during the course of a specific point within an architecture, and the risk event stack provides the probabilities, consequences, severities, and any mitigation strategies which could be used to reduce the risk of the event, and how much the risk is reduced. RISK D/C was developed for Macintosh series computers. It requires HyperCard 2.0 or later, as well as 2Mb of RAM and System 6.0.8 or later. A Macintosh II series computer is recommended due to speed concerns. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. RISK D/C was developed in 1991 and is a copyrighted work with all copyright vested in NASA. Macintosh and HyperCard are trademarks of Apple Computer, Inc.

Achieving Effective Risk Management Reduction Throughout Decommissioning at the Columbus Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, K.D.

2006-07-01

Nuclear facility decontamination, dismantlement, and demolition activities provide a myriad of challenges along the path to reaching a safe, effective, and compliant decommissioning. Among the challenges faced during decommissioning, is the constant management and technical effort to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize the potential of risks of radiation exposures and other hazards to the worker, the surrounding community, and the environment. Management strategies to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize risks include incorporating strong safety and As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principles into an integrated work planning process. Technical and operational strategies may include utilizing predictive risk analysis tools to establish contaminationmore » limits for demolition and using remote handling equipment to reduce occupational and radiation exposures to workers. ECC and E2 Closure Services, LLC (Closure Services) have effectively utilized these management and technical tools to eliminate, mitigate, and reduce radiation exposures under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the decontamination and decommissioning Columbus Closure Project (CCP). In particular, Closure Services achieved significant dose reduction during the dismantling, decontamination, and demolition activities for Building JN-1. Management strategies during the interior dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of the facility demanded an integrated work planning processes that involved project disciplines. Integrated planning processes identified multiple opportunities to incorporate the use of remote handling equipment during the interior dismantling and demolition activities within areas of high radiation. Technical strategies employed predictive risk analysis tools to set upper bounding contamination limits, allowed for the radiological demolition of the building without exceeding administrative dose limits to the worker, general public, and the environment. Adhering to management and technical strategies during the dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of Building JN-1 enabled Closure Services to achieve strong ALARA performance, maintain absolute compliance under the regulatory requirements and meeting licensing conditions for decommissioning. (authors)« less

Ethical questions in landslide management and risk reduction in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taurisano, A.; Lyche, E.; Thakur, V.; Wiig, T.; Øvrelid, K.; Devoli, G.

2012-04-01

The loss of lives caused by landslides in Norway is smaller than in other countries due to the low population density in exposed areas. However, annual economic losses from damage to properties and infrastructures are vast. Yet nationally coordinated efforts to manage and reduce landslide and snow avalanche risk are a recent challenge, having started only in the last decade. Since 2009, this has been a task of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Ongoing work includes collection of landslide data, production of susceptibility and hazard maps, planning of mitigation measures along with monitoring and early warning systems, assistance to areal planning, providing expertise in emergencies and disseminating information to the public. These activities are realized in collaboration with the Norwegian Geological Survey (NGU), the Meteorological Institute, the Road and Railway authorities, universities and private consultant companies. As the total need for risk mitigating initiatives is by far larger than the annual budget, priority assessment is crucial. This brings about a number of ethical questions. 1. Susceptibility maps have been produced for the whole country and provide a first indication of areas with potential landslide or snow avalanche hazard, i.e. areas where special attention and expert assessments are needed before development. Areas where no potential hazard is shown can in practice be developed without further studies, which call for relatively conservative susceptibility maps. However, conservative maps are problematic as they too often increase both cost and duration of building projects beyond the reasonable. 2. Areas where hazard maps or risk mitigation initiatives will be funded are chosen by means of cost-benefits analyses which are often uncertain. How to estimate the benefits if the real probability for damage can only be judged on a very subjective level but not really calculated? As a result, we may use large amounts of money to mitigate the risk for a few houses with a yearly probability of damage of 1/300 and not do anything for an isolated farm with a yearly probability of damage larger than 1/50. 3. Is it ethical to stop the plan to construct a pedestrian and a cycling way or a new road crossing exposed to potential landslide hazard, when the delay or disapproval of the implementation of the plan itself involves a severe consequence than the actual landslide hazard? 4. Most fatalities from natural hazards in Norway happen because of snow avalanches in recreational activities. On the one hand, this suggests that one should use a large share of the annual budget to prevent this type of accident, where there are most lives to spare. On the other hand, one could argue that the voluntary exposure to hazard shouldn't be given too much priority at the expense of buildings and public infrastructures. 5. More generally, how ethical is it to use large amounts of money to manage hazards that has a remote probability to occur or that will not cause human losses or property damage, instead of for example strengthening other social demands?

Development by Design: Mitigating Wind Development's Impacts on Wildlife in Kansas

PubMed Central

Obermeyer, Brian; Manes, Robert; Kiesecker, Joseph; Fargione, Joseph; Sochi, Kei

2011-01-01

Wind energy, if improperly sited, can impact wildlife through direct mortality and habitat loss and fragmentation, in contrast to its environmental benefits in the areas of greenhouse gas, air quality, and water quality. Fortunately, risks to wildlife from wind energy may be alleviated through proper siting and mitigation offsets. Here we identify areas in Kansas where wind development is incompatible with conservation, areas where wind development may proceed but with compensatory mitigation for impacts, and areas where development could proceed without the need for compensatory mitigation. We demonstrate that approximately 10.3 million ha in Kansas (48 percent of the state) has the potential to provide 478 GW of installed capacity while still meeting conservation goals. Of this total, approximately 2.7 million ha would require no compensatory mitigation and could produce up to 125 GW of installed capacity. This is 1,648 percent higher than the level of wind development needed in Kansas by 2030 if the United States is to get 20 percent of its electricity from wind. Projects that avoid and offset impacts consistent with this analysis could be awarded “Green Certification.” Certification may help to expand and sustain the wind industry by facilitating the completion of individual projects sited to avoid sensitive areas and protecting the industry's reputation as an ecologically friendly source of electricity. PMID:22046333

Trade-offs of Solar Geoengineering and Mitigation under Climate Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Stankoweit, M.; Roshan, E.; Schmidt, H.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Scientific analyses have hitherto focused on the pros and cons of solar-radiation management (SRM) as a climate-policy option mainly in mere isolation. Here we put SRM into the context of mitigation by a strictly temperature-target-based approach. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time, we introduce a concept for a regional integrated analysis of SRM and mitigation in-line with the `2°C target'. We explicitly account for a risk-risk comparison of SRM and global warming, extending the applicability regime of temperature targets from mitigation-only to joint-SRM-mitigation analysis while minimizing economic costs required for complying with the 2°C target. Upgrading it to include SRM, we employ the integrated energy-economy-climate model MIND. We utilize the two-box climate model of DICE and calibrate the short and long time scales respectively into GeoMIP G3 experiment and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations experiment from CEMIP5 suite. Our results show that without risk-risk accounting SRM will displace mitigation. However, our analysis highlights that the value system enshrined in the 2°C target can almost preclude SRM; this is exemplified by one single regional climate variable, here precipitation, which is confined to regional bounds compatible with 2°C of global warming. Although about a half of policy costs can be saved, the results indicate that the additional amount of CO2 that could be released to the atmosphere corresponds to only 0.2°C of further global warming. Hence, the society might debate whether the risks of SRM should be taken for that rather small amount of additional carbon emissions. Nonetheless, our results point out a significantly larger role for SRM implementation if the guardrails of some regions are relaxed.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health.

PubMed

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary S; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modeling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE's applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health

PubMed Central

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A.; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C.; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modelling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE’s applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. PMID:26827182

The potential role for management of U.S. public lands in greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy.

PubMed

Olander, Lydia P; Cooley, David M; Galik, Christopher S

2012-03-01

Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

Comparing Pain and Depressive Symptoms of Chronic Opioid Therapy Patients Receiving Dose Reduction and Risk Mitigation Initiatives With Usual Care.

PubMed

Thakral, Manu; Walker, Rod L; Saunders, Kathleen; Shortreed, Susan M; Parchman, Michael; Hansen, Ryan N; Ludman, Evette; Sherman, Karen J; Dublin, Sascha; Von Korff, Michael

2018-01-01

Dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives have been recommended to reduce opioid-related risks among patients receiving chronic opioid therapy (COT), but questions remain over whether these initiatives worsen pain control and quality of life. In 2014 to 2015, we interviewed 1,588 adult COT patients within a health care system in Washington State and compared those who received dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives in primary care clinics (intervention) with patients in comparable health care settings without initiatives (control). The primary outcomes were pain assessed using the pain, enjoyment, and general activity (PEG) scale, a 3-item scale to assess global pain intensity and interference, with secondary measures including depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-8 scale). Generalized estimating equations for linear regression models were used to estimate differences in mean scores between intervention and control sites. Estimated differences, adjusted for patient characteristics and weighted for nonresponse, between patients at intervention and control clinics were not clinically significant for the PEG (-.03, 95% confidence interval = -.25 to .19) or Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (-.64, 95% confidence interval = -1.19 to -.08). We found no evidence that COT patients in clinics with dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives had clinically meaningful differences in pain intensity, interference with activities and enjoyment of life, or depressive symptoms compared with control health care settings. This article evaluates the effect of dose reduction and risk mitigation initiatives, such as those recently recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to reduce risks associated with COT on global pain and interference, depressive symptoms, and perceived pain relief and bothersomeness of side effects. Copyright © 2017 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping the environmental risk potential on surface water of pesticide contamination in the Prosecco's vineyard terraced landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pizarro, Patricia; Ferrarese, Francesco; Loddo, Donato; Eugenio Pappalardo, Salvatore; Varotto, Mauro

2016-04-01

Intensive cropping systems today represent a paramount issue in terms of environmental impacts, since agricultural pollutants can constitute a potential threat to surface water, non-target organisms and aquatic ecosystems. Levels of pesticide concentrations in surface waters are indeed unquestionably correlated to crop and soil management practices at field-scale. Due to the numerous applications of pesticides required, orchards and vineyards can represent relevant non-point sources for pesticide contamination of water bodies, mainly prompted by soil erosion, surface runoff and spray drift. To reduce risks of pesticide contamination of surface water, the Directive 2009/128/CET imposed the local implementation of agricultural good practices and mitigation actions such as the use of vegetative buffer filter strips and hedgerows along river and pond banks. However, implementation of mitigation actions is often difficult, especially in extremely fragmented agricultural landscapes characterized by a complex territorial matrix set up on urban sprawling, frequent surface water bodies, important geomorphological processes and protected natural areas. Typically, such landscape matrix is well represented by the, Prosecco-DOCG vineyards area (NE of Italy, Province of Treviso) which lays on hogback hills of conglomerate, marls and sandstone that ranges between 50 and 500 m asl. Moreover such vineyards landscape is characterized by traditional and non-traditional agricultural terraces The general aim of this paper is to identify areas of surface water bodies with high potential risk of pesticide contamination from surrounding vineyards in the 735 ha of Lierza river basin (Refrontolo, TV), one of the most representative terraced landscape of the Prosecco-DOCG area. Specific aims are i) mapping terraced Prosecco-DOCG vineyards, ii) classifying potential risk from pesticide of the different areas. Remote sensing technologies such as four bands aerial photos (RGB+NIR) and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) have been used to map vineyards and to evaluate slope and drainage systems. All the data and statistics analyses have been performed in GIS environment. The areas of surface water located within a buffer zone of 20 linear meters from vineyard perimeter were considered at risk of pesticide contamination, according to European guidelines and on-site experimental results about the pesticide drift effect. Preliminary results show that 26 ha of the total vineyards within the river basin can potentially affect surface water bodies, highlighting that 19,410 m of perimeter is within 20 m from water courses. Moreover, vineyard classification based on proximity analysis indicates that 6.8 ha are at very high potential risk (<1m from water courses), 8.6 ha are at high risk level (from 1 to 5 m); 4.3 ha are at medium level (from 5 to 10 m), while 8.6 ha are at low level (>10 m).

Cognitive changes and dementia risk after traumatic brain injury: implications for aging military personnel.

PubMed

Vincent, Andrea S; Roebuck-Spencer, Tresa M; Cernich, Alison

2014-06-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is recognized as an important risk factor for the long-term cognitive health of military personnel, particularly in light of growing evidence that TBI increases risk for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. In this article, we review the neurocognitive and neuropathologic changes after TBI with particular focus on the potential risk for cognitive decline across the life span in military service members. Implications for monitoring and surveillance of cognition in the aging military population are discussed. Additional studies are needed to clarify the factors that increase risk for later life cognitive decline, define the mechanistic link between these factors and dementia, and provide empirically supported interventions to mitigate the impact of TBI on cognition across the life span. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. All rights reserved.

Social and Economic Aspects of the Transmission of Pathogenic Bacteria between Wildlife and Food Animals: A Thematic Analysis of Published Research Knowledge.

PubMed

Fournier, A; Young, I; Rajić, A; Greig, J; LeJeune, J

2015-09-01

Wildlife is a known reservoir of pathogenic bacteria, including Mycobacterium bovis and Brucella spp. Transmission of these pathogens between wildlife and food animals can lead to damaging impacts on the agri-food industry and public health. Several international case studies have highlighted the complex and cross-sectoral challenges involved in preventing and managing these potential transmission risks. The objective of our study was to develop a better understanding of the socio-economic aspects of the transmission of pathogenic bacteria between wildlife and food animals to support more effective and sustainable risk mitigation strategies. We conducted qualitative thematic analysis on a purposive sample of 30/141 articles identified in a complementary scoping review of the literature in this area and identified two key themes. The first related to the framing of this issue as a 'wicked problem' that depends on a complex interaction of social factors and risk perceptions, governance and public policy, and economic implications. The second theme consisted of promising approaches and strategies to prevent and mitigate the potential risks from transmission of pathogenic bacteria between wildlife and food animals. These included participatory, collaborative and multidisciplinary decision-making approaches and the proactive incorporation of credible scientific evidence and local contextual factors into solutions. The integration of these approaches to address 'wicked problems' in this field may assist stakeholders and decision-makers in improving the acceptability and sustainability of future strategies to reduce the transmission of pathogenic bacteria between wildlife and food animals. © 2015 Zoonoses and Public Health © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

PubMed

Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental Designer Drugs: When Transformation May Not Eliminate Risk

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Environmental transformation processes, including those occurring in natural and engineered systems, do not necessarily drastically alter molecular structures of bioactive organic contaminants. While the majority of generated transformation products are likely benign, substantial conservation of structure in transformation products can imply conservation or even creation of bioactivity across multiple biological end points and thus incomplete mitigation of ecological risk. Therefore, focusing solely on parent compound removal for contaminants of higher relative risk, the most common approach to fate characterization, provides no mechanistic relationship to potential biological effects and is inadequate as a comprehensive metric for reduction of ecological risks. Here, we explore these phenomena for endocrine-active steroid hormones, focusing on examples of conserved bioactivity and related implications for fate assessment, regulatory approaches, and research opportunities. PMID:25216024

Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers

DOE Data Explorer

Ken Rhinefrank

2016-07-25

Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.

Key Techniques and Risk Management for the Application of the Pile-Beam-Arch (PBA) Excavation Method: A Case Study of the Zhongjie Subway Station

PubMed Central

Guan, Yong-ping; Zhao, Wen; Li, Shen-gang; Zhang, Guo-bin

2014-01-01

The design and construction of shallow-buried tunnels in densely populated urban areas involve many challenges. The ground movements induced by tunneling effects pose potential risks to infrastructure such as surface buildings, pipelines, and roads. In this paper, a case study of the Zhongjie subway station located in Shenyang, China, is examined to investigate the key construction techniques and the influence of the Pile-Beam-Arch (PBA) excavation method on the surrounding environment. This case study discusses the primary risk factors affecting the environmental safety and summarizes the corresponding risk mitigation measures and key techniques for subway station construction using the PBA excavation method in a densely populated urban area. PMID:25221783

Impact of stress and mitigating information on evaluations, attributions, affect, disciplinary choices, and expectations of compliance in mothers at high and low risk for child physical abuse.

PubMed

De Paúl, Joaquín; Asla, Nagore; Pérez-Albéniz, Alicia; de Cádiz, Bárbara Torres-Gómez

2006-08-01

The objective is to know if high-risk mothers for child physical abuse differ in their evaluations, attributions, negative affect, disciplinary choices for children's behavior, and expectations of compliance. The effect of a stressor and the introduction of mitigating information are analyzed. Forty-seven high-risk and 48 matched low-risk mothers participated in the study. Mothers' information processing and disciplinary choices were examined using six vignettes depicting a child engaging in different transgressions. A four-factor design with repeated measures on the last two factors was used. High-risk mothers reported more hostile intent, global and internal attributions, more use of power assertion discipline, and less induction. A risk group by child transgression interaction and a risk group by mitigating information interaction were found. Results support the social information-processing model of child physical abuse, which suggests that high-risk mothers process child-related information differently and use more power assertive and less inductive disciplinary techniques.

Implementation of Risk Management in NASA's CEV Project- Ensuring Mission Success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Jeevan; Holsomback, Jerry D.

2005-12-01

Most project managers know that Risk Management (RM) is essential to good project management. At NASA, standards and procedures to manage risk through a tiered approach have been developed - from the global agency-wide requirements down to a program or project's implementation. The basic methodology for NASA's risk management strategy includes processes to identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate and document risks. The identification, characterization, mitigation plan, and mitigation responsibilities associated with specific risks are documented to help communicate, manage, and effectuate appropriate closure. This approach helps to ensure more consistent documentation and assessment and provides a means of archiving lessons learned for future identification or mitigation activities.A new risk database and management tool was developed by NASA in 2002 and since has been used successfully to communicate, document and manage a number of diverse risks for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and several other NASA projects and programs including at the Johnson Space Center. Organizations use this database application to effectively manage and track each risk and gain insight into impacts from other organization's viewpoint to develop integrated solutions. Schedule, cost, technical and safety issues are tracked in detail through this system.Risks are tagged within the system to ensure proper review, coordination and management at the necessary management level. The database is intended as a day-to- day tool for organizations to manage their risks and elevate those issues that need coordination from above. Each risk is assigned to a managing organization and a specific risk owner who generates mitigation plans as appropriate. In essence, the risk owner is responsible for shepherding the risk through closure. The individual that identifies a new risk does not necessarily get assigned as the risk owner. Whoever is in the best position to effectuate comprehensive closure is assigned as the risk owner. Each mitigation plan includes the specific tasks that will be conducted to either decrease the likelihood of the risk occurring and/or lessen the severity of the consequences if they do occur. As each mitigation task is completed, the responsible managing organization records the completion of the task in the risk database and then re-scores the risk considering the task's results. By keeping scores updated, a managing organization's current top risks and risk posture can be readily identified including the status of any risk in the system.A number of metrics measure risk process trends from data contained in the database. This allows for trend analysis to further identify improvements to the process and assist in the management of all risks. The metrics will also scrutinize both the effectiveness and compliance of risk management requirements.The risk database is an evolving tool and will be continuously improved with capabilities requested by the NASA project community. This paper presents the basic foundations of risk management, the elements necessary for effective risk management, and the capabilities of this new risk database and how it is implemented to support NASA's risk management needs.

Quantification of mitigation potentials of agricultural practices for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesschen, J. P.; Kuikman, P. J.; Smith, P.; Schils, R. L.; Oudendag, D.

2009-04-01

Agriculture has a significant impact on climate, with a commonly estimated contribution of 9% of total greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Besides, agriculture is the main source of nitrous oxide and methane emissions to the atmosphere. On the other hand, there is a large potential for climate change mitigation in agriculture through carbon sequestration into soils. Within the framework of the PICCMAT project (Policy Incentives for Climate Change Mitigation Agricultural Techniques) we quantified the mitigation potential of 11 agricultural practices at regional level for the EU. The focus was on smaller-scale measures towards optimised land management that can be widely applied at individual farm level and which can have a positive climate change mitigating effect and be beneficial to soil conditions, e.g. cover crops and reduced tillage. The mitigation potentials were assessed with the MITERRA-Europe model, a deterministic and static N cycling model which calculates N emissions on an annual basis, using N emission factors and N leaching fractions. For the PICCMAT project the model was extended with a soil carbon module, to assess changes in soil organic carbon according to the IPCC Tier1 approach. The amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) is calculated by multiplying the soil reference carbon content, which depends on soil type and climate, by coefficients for land use, land management and input of organic matter. By adapting these coefficients changes in SOC as result of the measures were simulated. We considered both the extent of agricultural area across Europe on which a measure could realistically be applied (potential level of implementation), and the current level of implementation that has already been achieved . The results showed that zero tillage has the highest mitigation potential, followed by adding legumes, reduced tillage, residue management, rotation species, and catch crops. Optimising fertiliser application and fertiliser type are the measures with the largest positive effect on N2O emissions. Overall the results showed that the additional mitigation potential of each individual measure is limited, but taken together they have a significant mitigation potential of about 10 percent of the current GHG emissions from agriculture. Besides, most of the measures with high mitigation potentials are associated with no or low implementation costs. Although CH4 and N2O are the most important GHG emitted from agricultural activities, it is more difficult to mitigate these emissions than increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and thus compensate them through carbon sequestration. However, the effect on carbon is only temporary and sequestered SOC stocks can easily be lost again, while for N2O the emission reduction is permanent and non-saturating. Another important implication that follows from our results is the large regional difference with regard to mitigation potential and feasibility of implementation. Policy measures to support agricultural mitigation should therefore be adjusted to regional conditions.

The Value of Biomedical Simulation Environments to Future Human Space Flight Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulugeta,Lealem; Myers, Jerry G.; Lewandowski, Beth; Platts, Steven H.

2011-01-01

Mars and NEO missions will expose astronaut to extended durations of reduced reduced gravity, isolation and higher radiation. These new operation conditions pose health risks that are not well understood and perhaps unanticipated. Advanced computational simulation environments can beneficially augment research to predict, assess and mitigate potential hazards to astronaut health. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP), within the NASA Human Research Program, strives to achieve this goal.

78 FR 56225 - Information Collection Request Submitted to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Soil...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... Submitted to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Soil Fumigant Risk Mitigation AGENCY... with the Paperwork Reduction Act: ``Soil Fumigant Risk Mitigation'' (EPA ICR No. 2451.01, OMB Control... eligibility for certain soil fumigant chemicals are adequately implemented. Under section 3(c)(2)(B) of the...

Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues relative to an unamended control soil was assessed using Lumbricus terrestris in 4-L soil microcos...

Living with wildfire in Telluride Fire Protection District, Colorado

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Lilia C. Falk; Jamie Gomez; Christopher M. Barth; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Patricia A. Champ

2017-01-01

Residents in the wildland-urban interface can play an important role in reducing wildfires’ negative effects by performing wildfire risk mitigation on their properties. This report offers insight into the wildfire risk mitigation activities and related considerations such as attitudes, experiences, and concern about wildfire, for residents of the Telluride Fire...

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

PubMed

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

Risk profiles of Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Bilbul, Melanie; Schipper, Hyman M

2011-07-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a dementing, neurodegenerative disorder that affects approximately 500,000 Canadians and its prevalence is expected to double over the next 30 years. Although several medications may temporarily augment cognitive abilities in AD, there presently exists no proven method to avoid the inevitable clinical deterioration in this devastating condition. The delineation of risk factors for the development of AD offers hope for the advent of effective prevention or interventions that might retard the onset of symptoms. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of midlife risk factors implicated in the etiopathogenesis of sporadic AD. Although some risk factors are heritable and largely beyond our control, others are determined by lifestyle or environment and are potentially modifiable. In a companion paper, we introduce the concept of an Alzheimer Risk Assessment Clinic for ascertainment and mitigation of these and other putative dementia risk factors in middle-aged adults.

Risk mitigation measures for diffuse pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems: proposal of a guide to identify appropriate measures on a catchment scale.

PubMed

Bereswill, Renja; Streloke, Martin; Schulz, Ralf

2014-04-01

Measures to mitigate the risk of pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems are becoming increasingly more important in the management of hot spots of pesticide transfer; such management, for example, is required by the European Union's directive for the sustainable use of pesticides (2009/128/EC). Measures beyond those currently stipulated for pesticide product authorization may be needed. A concise compilation of the appropriate measures for users (that are primarily farmers but also, e.g., regulators and farm extension services) and a guide for practically identifying these measures at the catchment scale is currently not available. Therefore, a proposal was developed for a guide focusing on the most important diffuse entry pathways (spray drift and runoff). Based on a survey of exposure-relevant landscape parameters (i.e., the riparian buffer strip width, riparian vegetation type, density of ground vegetation cover, coverage of the water body with aquatic macrophytes, field slope, and existence of concentrated flow paths), a set of risk mitigation measures focusing on the specific situation of pollution of a water body catchment can be identified. The user can then choose risk mitigation measures to implement, assisted by evaluations of their efficiency in reducing pesticide entry, feasibility, and expected acceptability to farmers. Currently, 12 landscape-related measures and 6 application-related measures are included. The present guide presents a step toward the practical implementation of risk mitigation measures for reducing pesticide entry in aquatic ecosystems. © 2013 SETAC.

Optimization of carbon mitigation paths in the power sector of Shenzhen, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Hu, Guangxiao; Duan, Ying; Ji, Junping

2017-08-01

This paper studied the carbon mitigation paths of the power sector in Shenzhen, China from a supply-side perspective. We investigated the carbon mitigation potentials and investments of seventeen mitigation technologies in the power sector, and employed a linear programming method to optimize the mitigation paths. The results show that: 1) The total carbon mitigation potential is 5.95 MtCO2 in 2020 in which the adjustment of power supply structure, technical improvements of existing coal- and gas-fired power plant account for 87.5%,6.5% and 6.0%, respectively. 2) In the optimal path, the avoided carbon dioxide to meet the local government’s mitigation goal in power sector is 1.26 MtCO2.The adjustment of power supply structure and technical improvement of the coal-fired power plants are the driving factors of carbon mitigation, with contributions to total carbon mitigation are 72.6% and 27.4%, respectively.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Are non-native plants perceived to be more risky? Factors influencing horticulturists' risk perceptions of ornamental plant species.

PubMed

Humair, Franziska; Kueffer, Christoph; Siegrist, Michael

2014-01-01

Horticultural trade is recognized as an important vector in promoting the introduction and dispersal of harmful non-native plant species. Understanding horticulturists' perceptions of biotic invasions is therefore important for effective species risk management. We conducted a large-scale survey among horticulturists in Switzerland (N = 625) to reveal horticulturists' risk and benefit perceptions from ornamental plant species, their attitudes towards the regulation of non-native species, as well as the factors decisive for environmental risk perceptions and horticulturists' willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Our results suggest that perceived familiarity with a plant species had a mitigating effect on risk perceptions, while perceptions of risk increased if a species was perceived to be non-native. However, perceptions of the non-native origin of ornamental plant species were often not congruent with scientific classifications. Horticulturists displayed positive attitudes towards mandatory trade regulations, particularly towards those targeted against known invasive species. Participants also expressed their willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Yet, positive effects of risk perceptions on the willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior were counteracted by perceptions of benefits from selling non-native ornamental species. Our results indicate that the prevalent practice in risk communication to emphasize the non-native origin of invasive species can be ineffective, especially in the case of species of high importance to local industries and people. This is because familiarity with these plants can reduce risk perceptions and be in conflict with scientific concepts of non-nativeness. In these cases, it might be more effective to focus communication on well-documented environmental impacts of harmful species.

Are Non-Native Plants Perceived to Be More Risky? Factors Influencing Horticulturists' Risk Perceptions of Ornamental Plant Species

PubMed Central

Humair, Franziska; Kueffer, Christoph; Siegrist, Michael

2014-01-01

Horticultural trade is recognized as an important vector in promoting the introduction and dispersal of harmful non-native plant species. Understanding horticulturists' perceptions of biotic invasions is therefore important for effective species risk management. We conducted a large-scale survey among horticulturists in Switzerland (N = 625) to reveal horticulturists' risk and benefit perceptions from ornamental plant species, their attitudes towards the regulation of non-native species, as well as the factors decisive for environmental risk perceptions and horticulturists' willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Our results suggest that perceived familiarity with a plant species had a mitigating effect on risk perceptions, while perceptions of risk increased if a species was perceived to be non-native. However, perceptions of the non-native origin of ornamental plant species were often not congruent with scientific classifications. Horticulturists displayed positive attitudes towards mandatory trade regulations, particularly towards those targeted against known invasive species. Participants also expressed their willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior. Yet, positive effects of risk perceptions on the willingness to engage in risk mitigation behavior were counteracted by perceptions of benefits from selling non-native ornamental species. Our results indicate that the prevalent practice in risk communication to emphasize the non-native origin of invasive species can be ineffective, especially in the case of species of high importance to local industries and people. This is because familiarity with these plants can reduce risk perceptions and be in conflict with scientific concepts of non-nativeness. In these cases, it might be more effective to focus communication on well-documented environmental impacts of harmful species. PMID:25003195

Space Transportation System Liftoff Debris Mitigation Process Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

2011-01-01

Liftoff debris is a top risk to the Space Shuttle Vehicle. To manage the Liftoff debris risk, the Space Shuttle Program created a team with in the Propulsion Systems Engineering & Integration Office. The Shutt le Liftoff Debris Team harnesses the Systems Engineering process to i dentify, assess, mitigate, and communicate the Liftoff debris risk. T he Liftoff Debris Team leverages off the technical knowledge and expe rtise of engineering groups across multiple NASA centers to integrate total system solutions. These solutions connect the hardware and ana lyses to identify and characterize debris sources and zones contribut ing to the Liftoff debris risk. The solutions incorporate analyses sp anning: the definition and modeling of natural and induced environmen ts; material characterizations; statistical trending analyses, imager y based trajectory analyses; debris transport analyses, and risk asse ssments. The verification and validation of these analyses are bound by conservative assumptions and anchored by testing and flight data. The Liftoff debris risk mitigation is managed through vigilant collab orative work between the Liftoff Debris Team and Launch Pad Operation s personnel and through the management of requirements, interfaces, r isk documentation, configurations, and technical data. Furthermore, o n day of launch, decision analysis is used to apply the wealth of ana lyses to case specific identified risks. This presentation describes how the Liftoff Debris Team applies Systems Engineering in their proce sses to mitigate risk and improve the safety of the Space Shuttle Veh icle.

Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittenberg, Lea

2017-04-01

Forest fires in the Euro-Mediterranean region burn about 450,000 ha each year. In Israel, the frequency and extent of wildfires have been steadily increasing over the past decades, culminating in several large and costly fires in 2010, 2012 and 2016. The extensive development of forest areas since the 1950's and the accumulation of fuel in the forests, has led to increased occurrences of high intensity fires. Land-use changes and human population growth are the most prevailing and common determinant of wildfire occurrence and impacts. Climate extremes, possibly already a sign of regional climate change, are another frequent determinant of increasing wildfire risk. Therefore, the combination of extreme dry spells, high fuel loads and increased anthropogenic pressure on the open spaces result in an overall amplified wildfire risk. These fires not only cause loss of life and damage to properties but also carry serious environmental repercussions. Combustion of standing vegetation and the leaf litter leave the soil bare and vulnerable to runoff and erosion, thereby increasing risks of flooding. Today, all of Israel's open spaces, forests, natural parks, major metropolitan centers, towns and villages are embedded within the wildland urban interface (WUI). Typically, wildfires near or in the WUI occur on uplands and runoff generated from the burned area poses flooding risks in urban and agricultural zones located downstream. Post-fire management aims at reducing associated hazards as collapsing trees and erosion risk. Often the time interval between a major fire and the definition of priority sites is in the order of days-to-weeks since administrative procedures, financial estimates and implementation of post-fire salvage logging operations require time. Defining the magnitude of the burn scar and estimating its potential impact on runoff and erosion must therefore be done quickly. A post-fire burn severity, runoff and erosion model is a useful tool in estimating potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

Effects of Geographic Diversification on Risk Pooling to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Losses for Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, Rachel; Characklis, Gregory W.; Serre, Marc L.

2018-04-01

As the costs and regulatory barriers to new water supply development continue to rise, drought management strategies have begun to rely more heavily on temporary conservation measures. While these measures are effective, they often lead to intermittent and unpredictable reductions in revenues that are financially disruptive to water utilities, raising concerns over lower credit ratings and higher rates of borrowing for this capital intensive sector. Consequently, there is growing interest in financial risk management strategies that reduce utility vulnerabilities. This research explores the development of financial index insurance designed to compensate a utility for drought-related losses. The focus is on analyzing candidate hydrologic indices that have the potential to be used by utilities across the US, increasing the potential for risk pooling, which would offer the possibility of both lower risk management costs and more widespread implementation. This work first analyzes drought-related financial risks for 315 publicly operated water utilities across the country and examines the effectiveness of financial contracts based on several indices both in terms of their correlation with utility revenues and their spatial autocorrelation across locations. Hydrologic-based index insurance contracts are then developed and tested over a 120 year period. Results indicate that risk pooling, even under conditions in which droughts are subject to some level of spatial autocorrelation, has the potential to significantly reduce the cost of managing financial risk.

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Matthew

2015-01-01

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Risk analysis using AS/NZS 4360:2004, Bow-Tie diagram and ALARP on construction projects of Banyumanik Hospital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Diana Puspita; Pujotomo, Darminto; Wardani, Nadira Kusuma

2017-11-01

The Determination of risk is an uncertain event. Risks can have negative or positive impacts on project objectives. A project was defined as a series of activities and tasks that have a purpose, specifications, and limits of cost. Banyumanik Hospital Development Project is one of the construction projects in Semarang which have experienced some problems. The first problem is project delays on building stake. The second problem is delay of material supply. Finally, the problem that occurs is less management attention to health safety as evidenced by the unavailability of PPE for the workers. These problems will pose a risk to be a very important risk management performed by contractors at the Banyumanik Hospital Development Project to reduce the impact that would be caused by the risk borne by the provider of construction services. This research aim to risk identification, risk assessment and risk mitigation. Project risk management begins with the identification of risks based on the project life cycle. The risk assessment carried out by AS I NZS 4360: 2004 to the impacts of cost, time and quality. The results obtained from the method of AS I NZS 4360: 2004 is the risk that requires the handling of mitigation. Mitigated risk is the risk that had significant and high level. There are four risks that require risk mitigation with Bow-Tie diagrams which is work accidents, contract delays, material delays and design changes. Bow-Tie diagram method is a method for identifying causal and preventive action and recovery of a risk. Results obtained from Bow-Tie diagram method is a preventive action and recovery. This action is used as input to the ALARP method. ALARP method is used to determine the priority of the strategy proposed in the category broadly acceptable, tolerable, and unacceptable.

Can species traits predict the susceptibility of riverine fish to water resource development? An Australian case study.

PubMed

Rolls, Robert J; Sternberg, David

2015-06-01

Water resource developments alter riverine environments by disrupting longitudinal connectivity, transforming lotic habitats, and modifying in-stream hydraulic conditions. Effective management of anthropogenic disturbances therefore requires an understanding of the range of potential ecosystem effects and the inherent traits symptomatic of elevated vulnerability to disturbance. Using 42 riverine fish native to South Eastern Australia as a case study, we quantified six morphological, behavioral, and life-history traits to classify species into groups reflecting potential differences in their response to ecosystem changes as a result of water resource development. Classification analysis identified five strategies based on fish life-history dispersal requirements, climbing potential, and habitat preference. These strategies in turn highlight the potential species at risk from the separate impacts of water resource development and inform management decisions to mitigate those risks. Swimming ability did not contribute to distinguishing species into functional groups, likely due to methodological inconsistencies in quantifying swimming performance that may ultimately hinder the ability of fish passage facilities to function within the physical capabilities of species at risk of habitat fragmentation. This study improves our ability to predict the performance of groups of species at risk from the multiple environmental changes imposed by humans and goes beyond broad-scale dispersal requirements as a predictor of individual species response.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Chinese Eco-Industrial Parks by Targeting Energy Infrastructure: A Vintage Stock Model.

PubMed

Guo, Yang; Tian, Jinping; Chertow, Marian; Chen, Lujun

2016-10-03

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's industrial sector is crucial for addressing climate change. We developed a vintage stock model to quantify the GHG mitigation potential and cost effectiveness in Chinese eco-industrial parks by targeting energy infrastructure with five key measures. The model, integrating energy efficiency assessments, GHG emission accounting, cost-effectiveness analyses, and scenario analyses, was applied to 548 units of energy infrastructure in 106 parks. The results indicate that two measures (shifting coal-fired boilers to natural gas-fired boilers and replacing coal-fired units with natural gas combined cycle units) present a substantial potential to mitigate GHGs (42%-46%) compared with the baseline scenario. The other three measures (installation of municipal solid waste-to-energy units, replacement of small-capacity coal-fired units with large units, and implementation of turbine retrofitting) present potential mitigation values of 6.7%, 0.3%, and 2.1%, respectively. In most cases, substantial economic benefits also can be achieved by GHG emission mitigation. An uncertainty analysis showed that enhancing the annual working time or serviceable lifetime levels could strengthen the GHG mitigation potential at a lower cost for all of the measures.

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical, future energy demand, and mitigation technology uncertainties. This information provides central information for policy making, since it helps to understand the relationship between mitigation costs and their potential to reduce the risk of exceeding 2°C, or other temperature limits like 3°C or 1.5°C, under a wide range of scenarios.

Assessment of food safety risks associated with preslaughter activities during the traditional slaughter of goats in Gauteng, South Africa.

PubMed

Qekwana, Nenene Daniel; Oguttu, James Wabwire

2014-06-01

The South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries estimated in 2012 that there were 2.033 million goats in the country. Of these animals, less than 0.5% are slaughtered at registered abattoirs. Although informal and traditional slaughter of goats for home consumption is permitted under the South African Meat Safety Act 40 of 2000, the responsibility for ensuring that products are safe is left to the traditional or ritual slaughter practitioners. The objective of the present study was to assess whether preslaughter activities associated with traditional or ritual slaughter promote or reduce food-associated risks and to recommend mitigation strategies for potential food safety hazards. Structured interviews were conducted with 105 selected respondents (in and around Tshwane, South Africa) who had been involved in traditional goat slaughter. Approximately 70% of goats slaughtered were obtained from sources that could be traced to ascertain the origin of the goats. None of the respondents were aware of the need for a health declaration for slaughter stock. Some slaughter practitioners (21%) perform prepurchase inspection of stock to ascertain their health status. However, this percentage is very small, and the approach is based on indigenous knowledge systems. The majority of respondents (67.6%) travelled 1 to 11 km to obtain a goat for traditional slaughter. Although approximately 70% of slaughter goats were transported by vehicles, the vehicles used did not meet the legal standard. More than two-thirds of goats were tied to a tree while waiting to be slaughtered, and the rest were held in a kraal. The holding period ranged from 1 to 72 h, but more than 70% of the animals were slaughtered within 36 h. This study revealed that traditional and ritual slaughter involves some preslaughter activities with potential to mitigate the risk of slaughtering animals that are not fit for human consumption. Such activities include prepurchase inspection, obtaining goats from known and traceable sources, and ensuring that animals have sufficient rest before slaughter. However, given the rudimentary nature of these activities, they may not offer adequate protection to consumers of such meat. The lack of understanding of the importance of a obtaining a health declaration certificate and minimizing stress in animals waiting to be slaughtered should be addressed to minimize the potential for propagation of foodborne diseases. The Meat Safety Act 40 of 2000 should be enforced where it applies and should be reviewed to provide guidelines that would help mitigate human health risks associated with traditional slaughter of goats.

Long-term prospects: Mitigation of supernova and gamma-ray burst threat to intelligent beings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ćirković, Milan M.; Vukotić, Branislav

2016-12-01

We consider global catastrophic risks due to cosmic explosions (supernovae, magnetars and gamma-ray bursts) and possible mitigation strategies by humans and other hypothetical intelligent beings. While by their very nature these events are so huge to daunt conventional thinking on mitigation and response, we wish to argue that advanced technological civilizations would be able to develop efficient responses in the domain of astroengineering within their home planetary systems. In particular, we suggest that construction of shielding swarms of small objects/particles confined by electromagnetic fields could be one way of mitigating the risk of cosmic explosions and corresponding ionizing radiation surges. Such feats of astroengineering could, in principle, be detectable from afar by advanced Dysonian SETI searches.

Fatigue Management Strategies for the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bendrick, Gregg

2012-01-01

Operation of the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy entails a great deal of night-time work, with the potential for both acute and chronic sleep loss, as well as circadian rhythm dysynchrony. Such fatigue can result in performance decrements, with an increased risk of operator error. The NASA Dryden Flight Research Center manages this fatigue risk by means of a layered approach, to include: 1) Education and Training 2) Work Schedule Scoring 3) Obtained Sleep Metrics 4) Workplace and Operational Mitigations and 5) Incident or Accident Investigation. Specifically, quantitative estimation of the work schedule score, as well as the obtained sleep metric, allows Supervisors and Managers to better manage the risk of fatigue within the context of mission requirements.

Tradeoffs in Risk and Return of Financial Hedging Solutions to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Risks for Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Financial hedging solutions have been examined as tools for effectively mitigating water scarcity related financial risks for water utilities, and have become more prevalent as conservation (resulting in reduced revenues) and water transfers (resulting in increased costs) play larger roles in drought management. Individualized financial contracts (i.e. designed for a single utility) provide evidence of the potential benefits of financial hedging. However, individualized contracts require substantial time and information to develop, limiting their widespread implementation. More generalized contracts have also shown promise, and would allow the benefits of risk pooling to be more effectively realized, resulting in less expensive contracts. Risk pooling reduces the probability of an insurer making payouts that deviate significantly from the mean, but given that the financial risks of drought are spatially correlated amongst utilities, these more extreme "fat tail" risks remain. Any group offering these hedging contracts, whether a third-party insurer or a "mutual" comprised of many utilities, will need to balance the costs (i.e. additional risk) and benefits (i.e. returns) of alternative approaches to managing the extreme risks (e.g. through insurance layers). The balance of these different approaches will vary depending on the risk pool being considered, including the number, size and exposure of the participating utilities. This work first establishes a baseline of the tradeoffs between risk and expected return in insuring against the financial risks of water scarcity without alternative hedging approaches for water utilities across all climate divisions of the United States. Then various scenarios are analyzed to provide insight into how to maximize returns for risk pooling portfolios at various risk levels through balancing different insurance layers and hedging approaches. This analysis will provide valuable information for designing optimal financial risk management strategies for water utilities across the United States.

Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland-urban interface in the western United States.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Nelson, Cara R; Theobald, David M; Carnwath, Gunnar C; Chapman, Teresa B

2009-06-30

Because of increasing concern about the effects of catastrophic wildland fires throughout the western United States, federal land managers have been engaged in efforts to restore historical fire behavior and mitigate wildfire risk. During the last 5 years (2004-2008), 44,000 fuels treatments were implemented across the western United States under the National Fire Plan (NFP). We assessed the extent to which these treatments were conducted in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where they would have the greatest potential to reduce fire risk in neighboring homes and communities. Although federal policies stipulate that significant resources should be invested in the WUI, we found that only 3% of the area treated was within the WUI, and another 8% was in an additional 2.5-km buffer around the WUI, totaling 11%. Only 17% of this buffered WUI is under federal ownership, which significantly limits the ability of federal agencies to implement fire-risk reduction treatments near communities. Although treatments far from the WUI may have some fire mitigation benefits, our findings suggest that greater priority must be given to locating treatments in and near the WUI, rather than in more remote settings, to satisfy NFP goals of reducing fire risk to communities. However, this may require shifting management and policy emphasis from public to private lands.

12 CFR 391.22 - Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... mitigation of identity theft. 391.22 Section 391.22 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION... Reporting § 391.22 Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft. (a) Scope... identity theft, including financial, operational, compliance, reputation, or litigation risks. (4) Credit...

12 CFR 391.22 - Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... mitigation of identity theft. 391.22 Section 391.22 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION... Reporting § 391.22 Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft. (a) Scope... identity theft, including financial, operational, compliance, reputation, or litigation risks. (4) Credit...

12 CFR 391.22 - Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... mitigation of identity theft. 391.22 Section 391.22 Banks and Banking FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION... Reporting § 391.22 Duties regarding the detection, prevention, and mitigation of identity theft. (a) Scope... identity theft, including financial, operational, compliance, reputation, or litigation risks. (4) Credit...

Equine disease events resulting from international horse movements: Systematic review and lessons learned.

PubMed

Dominguez, M; Münstermann, S; de Guindos, I; Timoney, P

2016-09-01

An analysis of the factors leading to equine disease events was used to support the development of international recommendations for mitigating the risk of disease dissemination through sport horse movements (high health, high performance - 'HHP' horses). A review was undertaken to identify the factors resulting in equine disease events following international movement of horses to draw lessons in support of the development of international recommendations for the safe movements of a specific subpopulation of horses: the HHP sport horses. Systematic review carried out in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The review covered disease events that occurred from 1995 to 2014, identified from the databases of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and international surveillance reports. Overall, 54 disease events were identified, of which 7 were contained in post arrival quarantine and the others resulted in the introduction of pathogens into importing countries. For 81% of the introductions, the OIE recommendations applicable to the diseases involved had not been complied with. Subclinical infections are a challenge for international trade: 88% of the regulated movements that resulted in introductions involved infected horses that showed no clinical signs at the time of import. Biosecurity and management practices in resident equine populations were identified as important mitigating factors in preventing disease spread to the local horse population. The global increase in international horse movements, if not appropriately regulated and supervised by competent veterinary authorities and respective equine industry partners, could potentially lead to increased global spread of infectious equine diseases. Appropriate mitigation measures and compliance with OIE import recommendations for specific diseases can significantly reduce this risk. The recommendations proposed under the HHP approach take into account the mitigation measures identified by this review as important factors in preventing pathogen introduction and spread. © 2015 EVJ Ltd.

Emergency planning and preparedness for the deliberate release of toxic industrial chemicals.

PubMed

Russell, David; Simpson, John

2010-03-01

Society in developed and developing countries is hugely dependent upon chemicals for health, wealth, and economic prosperity, with the chemical industry contributing significantly to the global economy. Many chemicals are synthesized, stored, and transported in vast quantities and classified as high production volume chemicals; some are recognized as being toxic industrial chemicals (TICs). Chemical accidents involving chemical installations and transportation are well recognized. Such chemical accidents occur with relative frequency and may result in large numbers of casualties with acute and chronic health effects as well as fatalities. The large-scale production of TICs, the potential for widespread exposure and significant public health impact, together with their relative ease of acquisition, makes deliberate release an area of potential concern. The large numbers of chemicals, together with the large number of potential release scenarios means that the number of possible forms of chemical incident are almost infinite. Therefore, prior to undertaking emergency planning and preparedness, it is necessary to prioritize risk and subsequently mitigate. This is a multi-faceted process, including implementation of industrial protection layers, substitution of hazardous chemicals, and relocation away from communities. Residual risk provides the basis for subsequent planning. Risk-prioritized emergency planning is a tool for identifying gaps, enhancing communication and collaboration, and for policy development. It also serves to enhance preparedness, a necessary prelude to preventing or mitigating the public health risk to deliberate release. Planning is an iterative and on-going process that requires multi-disciplinary agency input, culminating in the formation of a chemical incident plan complimentary to major incident planning. Preparedness is closely related and reflects a state of readiness. It is comprised of several components, including training and exercising. Toxicologists have a role to play in developing syndromic surveillance, recognizing clinical presentation of chemical incidents, developing toxicological datasheets, and the requisition and stockpiling of medical countermeasures. The chemical industry is global and many chemicals are synthesized and transported in vast quantities. Many of these chemicals are toxic and readily available, necessitating the need for identifying and assessing hazard and risks and subsequently planning and preparing for the deliberate release of TICs.

U.S. Reliance on Foreign IT: Mitigating Risks Associated with Foreign Sources of Hardware Components, Summer 2008 - Project 08-03

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-08-01

REPORT MAY 2008 - AUGUST 2008 U.S. Reliance on Foreign IT: Mitigating Risks Associated with Foreign Sources of Hardware Components N/A N/A N/A 08...Clinger-Cohen Act CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIO Chief Information Officer CMOS Complimentary Metal -Oxide Semiconductor DARPA Defense Advanced

The national database of wildfire mitigation programs: state, county and local efforts reduce wildfire risk

Treesearch

Terry Haines; Cheryl Renner; Margaret Reams; James Granskog

2005-01-01

The growth of residential communities within forested areas has increased the danger to life and property from uncontrolled wildfire. In response, states, counties and local governments in the United States have dramatically increased their wildfire mitigation efforts. Policymakers and fire officials are employing a wide range of regulatory and voluntary wildfire risk...

49 CFR 228.407 - Analysis of work schedules; submissions; FRA review and approval of submissions; fatigue...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION HOURS OF SERVICE OF RAILROAD EMPLOYEES; RECORDKEEPING AND REPORTING; SLEEPING QUARTERS Substantive... fatigue mitigation tools to reduce the risk for fatigue to a level that does not violate the fatigue... mitigation tools so as to present a risk for a level of fatigue that does not violate the applicable fatigue...

49 CFR 228.407 - Analysis of work schedules; submissions; FRA review and approval of submissions; fatigue...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION HOURS OF SERVICE OF RAILROAD EMPLOYEES; RECORDKEEPING AND REPORTING; SLEEPING QUARTERS Substantive... fatigue mitigation tools to reduce the risk for fatigue to a level that does not violate the fatigue... mitigation tools so as to present a risk for a level of fatigue that does not violate the applicable fatigue...

49 CFR 228.407 - Analysis of work schedules; submissions; FRA review and approval of submissions; fatigue...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... TRANSPORTATION HOURS OF SERVICE OF RAILROAD EMPLOYEES; RECORDKEEPING AND REPORTING; SLEEPING QUARTERS Substantive... fatigue mitigation tools to reduce the risk for fatigue to a level that does not violate the fatigue... mitigation tools so as to present a risk for a level of fatigue that does not violate the applicable fatigue...

Polishing the prism: improving wildfire mitigation planning by coupling landscape and social dimensions

Treesearch

Geoffrey Koch; Alan Ager; Jeff Kline; Paige Fischer

2016-01-01

Effectively addressing wildfire risk to communities on large multi-owner landscapes requires an understanding of the biophysical factors that influence risk, such as fuel loads, topography, and weather, and social factors such as the capacity and willingness for communities to engage in fire-mitigation activities. Biophysical and social processes often are disconnected...

Documenting the Intangible and the Use of "collective Memory" as a Tool for Risk Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekim, Z.; Güney, E. E.; Vatan, M.

2017-08-01

Increasing immigration activities due to globalized economies, political conflicts, wars and disasters of the recent years not only had a serious impact on the tangible heritage fabric, but also on the intangible values of heritage sites. With the challenges of managing drastic changes the field of heritage is faced with in mind, this paper proposes a documentation strategy that utilizes "collective memory" as a tool for risk mitigation of culturally diverse sites. Intangible and tangible values of two cases studies, from Turkey and Canada, are studied in a comparative way to create a methodology for the use of collected data on "collective memory and identity" in risk mitigation and managing change as a living value of the site.

Defining the Synthetic Biology Supply Chain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frazar, Sarah L.; Hund, Gretchen E.; Bonheyo, George T.

In this article, a team of experts in synthetic biology, data analytics, and national security describe the overall supply chain surrounding synthetic biology. The team analyzes selected interactions within that network to better understand the risks raised by synthetic biology and identifies opportunities for risk mitigation. To introduce the concept, the article will briefly describe how an understanding of supply chains has been important in promoting nuclear nonproliferation objectives. The article concludes by assessing the structure and networks identified in the supply chains to reveal potential opportunities for future biodefense research and development; options for additional information exchange; and meansmore » to interdict, detect, or deter suspicious activity.« less

Institutional Oversight of Occupational Health and Safety for Research Programs Involving Biohazards

PubMed Central

Dyson, Melissa C; Carpenter, Calvin B; Colby, Lesley A

2017-01-01

Research with hazardous biologic materials (biohazards) is essential to the progress of medicine and science. The field of microbiology has rapidly advanced over the years, partially due to the development of new scientific methods such as recombinant DNA technology, synthetic biology, viral vectors, and the use of genetically modified animals. This research poses a potential risk to personnel as well as the public and the environment. Institutions must have appropriate oversight and take appropriate steps to mitigate the risks of working with these biologic hazards. This article will review responsibilities for institutional oversight of occupational health and safety for research involving biologic hazards. PMID:28662748

Institutional Oversight of Occupational Health and Safety for Research Programs Involving Biohazards.

PubMed

Dyson, Melissa C; Carpenter, Calvin B; Colby, Lesley A

2017-06-01

Research with hazardous biologic materials (biohazards) is essential to the progress of medicine and science. The field of microbiology has rapidly advanced over the years, partially due to the development of new scientific methods such as recombinant DNA technology, synthetic biology, viral vectors, and the use of genetically modified animals. This research poses a potential risk to personnel as well as the public and the environment. Institutions must have appropriate oversight and take appropriate steps to mitigate the risks of working with these biologic hazards. This article will review responsibilities for institutional oversight of occupational health and safety for research involving biologic hazards.

Measure Guideline. Transitioning From Three-Coat Stucco to One-Coat Stucco With EPS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brozyna, K.; Davis, G.; Rapport, A.

2012-04-01

This measure guideline has been developed to help builders transition from using a traditional three-coat stucco wall-cladding system to a one-coat stucco wall-cladding system with expanded polystyrene (EPS) insulated sheathing. The one-coat system maintains the look of a traditional stucco system but uses only a base layer and a finish coat over EPS insulation that achieves higher levels of energy efficiency. Potential risks associated with the installation of a one-coat stucco system are addressed in terms of design, installation, and warranty concerns such as cracking and delamination, along with mitigation strategies to reduce these risks.

A preliminary spatial assessment of risk: Marine birds and chronic oil pollution on Canada's Pacific coast.

PubMed

Fox, C H; O'Hara, P D; Bertazzon, S; Morgan, K; Underwood, F E; Paquet, P C

2016-12-15

Chronic oil pollution poses substantial risks to marine birds and other marine wildlife worldwide. On Canada's Pacific coast, the negative ecological consequences to marine birds and marine ecosystems in general remain poorly understood. Using information relating to oil spill probability of occurrence, areas of overall importance to marine birds, and the at-sea distribution and density of 12 marine bird species and seven bird groups, including multiple Species at Risk, we undertook a spatial assessment of risk. Our results identify two main areas important to marine birds potentially at higher risk of exposure to oil. For individual bird species or species groups, those predicted to have elevated bird densities near the mainland and the northeast coast of Vancouver Island were identified as being at higher potential risk of exposure. Our results, however, should be considered preliminary. As with other anthropogenic stressors, in order to better understand and subsequently mitigate the consequences of chronic oil pollution on marine birds, improved information relating to marine birds and the occurrence of oil spills on Canada's Pacific coast is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spreadsheet Assessment Tool v. 2.4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, David J.; Martinez, Ruben

2016-03-03

The Spreadsheet Assessment Tool (SAT) is an easy to use, blast assessment tool that is intended to estimate the potential risk due to an explosive attack on a blood irradiator. The estimation of risk is based on the methodology, assumptions, and results of a detailed blast effects assessment study that is summarized in Sandia National Laboratories Technical Report SAND2015-6166. Risk as defined in the report and as used in the SAT is: "The potential risk of creating an air blast-induced vent opening at a buildings envelope surface". Vent openings can be created at a buildings envelope through the failure ofmore » an exterior building component—like a wall, window, or door—due to an explosive sabotage of an irradiator within the building. To estimate risk, the tool requires that users obtain and input information pertaining to the building's characteristics and the irradiator location. The tool also suggests several prescriptive mitigation strategies that can be considered to reduce risk. Given the variability in civilian building construction practices, the input parameters used by this tool may not apply to all buildings being assessed. The tool should not be used as a substitute for engineering judgment. The tool is intended for assessment purposes only.« less

Electronic cigarettes: incorporating human factors engineering into risk assessments

PubMed Central

Yang, Ling; Rudy, Susan F; Cheng, James M; Durmowicz, Elizabeth L

2014-01-01

Objective A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the impact of human factors (HF) on the risks associated with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) and to identify research gaps. HF is the evaluation of human interactions with products and includes the analysis of user, environment and product complexity. Consideration of HF may mitigate known and potential hazards from the use and misuse of a consumer product, including e-cigarettes. Methods Five databases were searched through January 2014 and publications relevant to HF were incorporated. Voluntary adverse event (AE) reports submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the package labelling of 12 e-cigarette products were analysed. Results No studies specifically addressing the impact of HF on e-cigarette use risks were identified. Most e-cigarette users are smokers, but data on the user population are inconsistent. No articles focused specifically on e-cigarette use environments, storage conditions, product operational requirements, product complexities, user errors or misuse. Twelve published studies analysed e-cigarette labelling and concluded that labelling was inadequate or misleading. FDA labelling analysis revealed similar concerns described in the literature. AE reports related to design concerns are increasing and fatalities related to accidental exposure and misuse have occurred; however, no publications evaluating the relationship between AEs and HF were identified. Conclusions The HF impacting e-cigarette use and related hazards are inadequately characterised. Thorough analyses of user–product–environment interfaces, product complexities and AEs associated with typical and atypical use are needed to better incorporate HF engineering principles to inform and potentially reduce or mitigate the emerging hazards associated with e-cigarette products. PMID:24732164

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

2014-01-01

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base-case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii) a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii) because of the time delays in achieving carbon benefits for many forest-based mitigation activities, future contributions of the forest sector to climate mitigation can be maximized if implemented soon.

Disaster mitigation action plan: Digital media on improving accountability and community relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adila, I.; Dewi, W. W. A.; Tamitiadini, D.; Syauki, W. R.

2017-06-01

This study wants to address on how communication science is applied to Disaster Mitigation Plan. Especially, the implementation of Community Media and Development of Communication Technology that synergize to create a Disaster Mitigation Medium, which is appropriate for typology of Indonesia. Various levels of priorities that include disaster mitigation information, namely, increasing chain system of early warning systems, building evacuation, improving alertness and capacity to face a disaster, as well as minimizing disaster risk factor. Through this concept, mitigation actions plan of Tulungagung Coastal areas is expected to be applied in other regions in Indonesia by BNPB (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana). Having this strategy to be implemented based on region characteristics, it is expected that risk reduction process can be run optimally. As a result, the strategy is known as Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (PRBBK), which means as the organized-efforts by society for pra-, during, and post- disaster by using available resources as much as possible to prevent, reduce, avoid, and recover from the impact of disasters. Therefore, this result can be a Pilot Project for BNBP Indonesia, as a government decisive attitude for the next steps in protecting people residing in the region prone to natural disasters all over Indonesia.

Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T.

The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9more » days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20–120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.« less

Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation

DOE PAGES

Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T.; ...

2015-06-01

The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9more » days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20–120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.« less

Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

PubMed

Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

2015-06-01

The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

A Study of the Impact of Peak Demand on Increasing Vulnerability of Cascading Failures to Extreme Contingency Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Nguyen, Tony B.

The vulnerability of large power systems to cascading failures and major blackouts has become evident since the Northeast blackout in 1965. Based on analyses of the series of cascading blackouts in the past decade, the research community realized the urgent need to develop better methods, tools, and practices for performing cascading-outage analysis and for evaluating mitigations that are easily accessible by utility planning engineers. PNNL has developed the Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) as an open-platform and publicly available methodology to help develop applications that aim to improve the capabilities of power planning engineers to assess the impact and likelihoodmore » of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT analysis will help identify potential vulnerabilities and allow study of mitigation solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages in technically sound and effective ways. Using the DCAT capability, we examined the impacts of various load conditions to identify situations in which the power grid may encounter cascading outages that could lead to potential blackouts. This paper describes the usefulness of the DCAT tool and how it helps to understand potential impacts of load demand on cascading failures on the power system.« less

Inherited proclivity: When should neurogenetics mitigate moral culpability for purposes of sentencing?

PubMed Central

Segal, J Bradley

2016-01-01

Certain genes and neurobiology (‘neurogenetics’) may predispose some people to violent behavior. Increasingly, defendants introduce neurogenetic evidence as a mitigating factor during criminal sentencing. Identifying the cause of a criminal act, biological or otherwise, does not necessarily preclude moral or legal liability. However, valid scientific evidence of an inherited proclivity sometimes should be considered when evaluating whether a defendant is less morally culpable for a crime and perhaps less deserving of punishment. This Note proposes a two-pronged test to understand whether and when neurogenetic evidence should be considered to potentially mitigate an individual's culpability for criminal behavior. The first prong normatively assesses whether a defendant meets a threshold of having meaningfully managed his risk of harming others based on what he knew, or should have known, about his own proclivities to violence. The second prong considers the admissibility of the evidence based on whether the specific neurogenetic proclivity claimed by the defendant is relevant and adequately supported by science so as to be reliable. This proposed two-pronged test, beginning with an ethical threshold and followed by a scientific hurdle, can help judges and juries establish when to accept arguments for neurogenetic mitigation at sentencing, and when to reject them. PMID:27774246

Mycobacterium chimaera infections in post–operative patients exposed to heater–cooler devices: An overview

PubMed Central

Ogunremi, T; Taylor, G; Johnston, L; Amaratunga, K; Muller, M; Coady, A; Defalco, K; Dunn, K; Johnstone, J; Smith, S; Embree, J; Henry, B; Stafford, J

2017-01-01

A multi-country outbreak of Mycobacterium chimaera infection associated with contaminated heater–cooler devices (HCDs) has been reported, with more than 70 cases in Europe and the United States and two cases in Canada to date. The epidemiological and microbiological characteristics of this outbreak provide evidence for common-source transmission of M. chimaera from the exhaust air of intrinsically contaminated HCDs to patients during cardiac surgery. To date, all reported cases have been associated with Stöckert 3T HCDs manufactured at one plant by LivaNova prior to September 2014. Implantation of prosthetic material increases the risk of infection. Infections usually present as prosthetic valve endocarditis, vascular graft infection or disseminated infection. Reported mortality rates have varied, but were often over 40%. Several measures are recommended to facilitate case-finding and mitigate risk of exposure. The feasibility of some risk mitigation measures and their effectiveness in reducing the risk of exposure are yet to be determined. Until HCDs are redesigned in a manner that prevents water contamination and aerosolization, separating the HCD exhaust air from the operating room air during surgery may be the most effective risk mitigation strategy. However, possible unintended consequences of this approach should be considered. This overview summarizes findings from peer-reviewed and other relevant national documents on key features of the outbreak, including the source, identified risk factors for infection, signs and symptoms of infection, burden of disease, risk mitigation measures, management challenges and knowledge gaps.

Mycobacterium chimaera infections in post-operative patients exposed to heater-cooler devices: An overview.

PubMed

Ogunremi, T; Taylor, G; Johnston, L; Amaratunga, K; Muller, M; Coady, A; Defalco, K; Dunn, K; Johnstone, J; Smith, S; Embree, J; Henry, B; Stafford, J

2017-05-04

A multi-country outbreak of Mycobacterium chimaera infection associated with contaminated heater-cooler devices (HCDs) has been reported, with more than 70 cases in Europe and the United States and two cases in Canada to date. The epidemiological and microbiological characteristics of this outbreak provide evidence for common-source transmission of M. chimaera from the exhaust air of intrinsically contaminated HCDs to patients during cardiac surgery. To date, all reported cases have been associated with Stöckert 3T HCDs manufactured at one plant by LivaNova prior to September 2014. Implantation of prosthetic material increases the risk of infection. Infections usually present as prosthetic valve endocarditis, vascular graft infection or disseminated infection. Reported mortality rates have varied, but were often over 40%. Several measures are recommended to facilitate case-finding and mitigate risk of exposure. The feasibility of some risk mitigation measures and their effectiveness in reducing the risk of exposure are yet to be determined. Until HCDs are redesigned in a manner that prevents water contamination and aerosolization, separating the HCD exhaust air from the operating room air during surgery may be the most effective risk mitigation strategy. However, possible unintended consequences of this approach should be considered. This overview summarizes findings from peer-reviewed and other relevant national documents on key features of the outbreak, including the source, identified risk factors for infection, signs and symptoms of infection, burden of disease, risk mitigation measures, management challenges and knowledge gaps.

Mitigating flood exposure: Reducing disaster risk and trauma signature.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city's worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods . We applied the "trauma signature analysis" (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results . Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion . In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation.