Update on work-related psychosocial factors and the development of ischemic heart disease: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pejtersen, Jan Hyld; Burr, Hermann; Hannerz, Harald; Fishta, Alba; Hurwitz Eller, Nanna

2015-01-01

The present review deals with the relationship between occupational psychosocial factors and the incidence of ischemic heart disease (IHD) with special regard to the statistical power of the findings. This review with 4 inclusion criteria is an update of a 2009 review of which the first 3 criteria were included in the original review: (1) STUDY: a prospective or case-control study if exposure was not self-reported (prognostic studies excluded); (2) OUTCOME: definite IHD determined externally; (3) EXPOSURE: psychosocial factors at work (excluding shift work, trauma, violence or accidents, and social capital); and (4) Statistical power: acceptable to detect a 20% increased risk in IHD. Eleven new papers met the inclusion criteria 1-3; a total of 44 papers were evaluated regarding inclusion criteria 4. Of 169 statistical analyses, only 10 analyses in 2 papers had acceptable statistical power. The results of the 2 papers pointed in the same direction, namely that only the control dimension of job strain explained the excess risk for myocardial infarction for job strain. The large number of underpowered studies and the focus on psychosocial models, such as the job strain models, make it difficult to determine to what extent psychosocial factors at work are risk factors of IHD. There is a need for considering statistical power when planning studies.

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from radiation and smoking risk" enhanced both subjective and objective understanding without diminishing trust in all participants and in the high dread-risk perception group; use of other risk-comparison information could lead the public to overestimate risk.

The effectiveness of power-generating complexes constructed on the basis of nuclear power plants combined with additional sources of energy determined taking risk factors into account

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminov, R. Z.; Khrustalev, V. A.; Portyankin, A. V.

2015-02-01

The effectiveness of combining nuclear power plants equipped with water-cooled water-moderated power-generating reactors (VVER) with other sources of energy within unified power-generating complexes is analyzed. The use of such power-generating complexes makes it possible to achieve the necessary load pickup capability and flexibility in performing the mandatory selective primary and emergency control of load, as well as participation in passing the night minimums of electric load curves while retaining high values of the capacity utilization factor of the entire power-generating complex at higher levels of the steam-turbine part efficiency. Versions involving combined use of nuclear power plants with hydrogen toppings and gas turbine units for generating electricity are considered. In view of the fact that hydrogen is an unsafe energy carrier, the use of which introduces additional elements of risk, a procedure for evaluating these risks under different conditions of implementing the fuel-and-hydrogen cycle at nuclear power plants is proposed. Risk accounting technique with the use of statistical data is considered, including the characteristics of hydrogen and gas pipelines, and the process pipelines equipment tightness loss occurrence rate. The expected intensities of fires and explosions at nuclear power plants fitted with hydrogen toppings and gas turbine units are calculated. In estimating the damage inflicted by events (fires and explosions) occurred in nuclear power plant turbine buildings, the US statistical data were used. Conservative scenarios of fires and explosions of hydrogen-air mixtures in nuclear power plant turbine buildings are presented. Results from calculations of the introduced annual risk to the attained net annual profit ratio in commensurable versions are given. This ratio can be used in selecting projects characterized by the most technically attainable and socially acceptable safety.

Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

2016-01-01

In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from radiation and smoking risk” enhanced both subjective and objective understanding without diminishing trust in all participants and in the high dread-risk perception group; use of other risk-comparison information could lead the public to overestimate risk. PMID:27802304

Changes in the Factors Influencing Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power Generation in Japan Since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster.

PubMed

Tsujikawa, Norifumi; Tsuchida, Shoji; Shiotani, Takamasa

2016-01-01

Public support for nuclear power generation has decreased in Japan since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011. This study examines how the factors influencing public acceptance of nuclear power changed after this event. The influence factors examined are perceived benefit, perceived risk, trust in the managing bodies, and pro-environmental orientation (i.e., new ecological paradigm). This study is based on cross-sectional data collected from two online nationwide surveys: one conducted in November 2009, before the nuclear accident, and the other in October 2011, after the accident. This study's target respondents were residents of Aomori, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures in the Tohoku region of Japan, as these areas were the epicenters of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the locations of nuclear power stations. After the accident, trust in the managing bodies was found to have a stronger influence on perceived risk, and pro-environmental orientation was found to have a stronger influence on trust in the managing bodies; however, perceived benefit had a weaker positive influence on public acceptance. We also discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Proceedings of the international meeting on thermal nuclear reactor safety. Vol. 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Separate abstracts are included for each of the papers presented concerning current issues in nuclear power plant safety; national programs in nuclear power plant safety; radiological source terms; probabilistic risk assessment methods and techniques; non LOCA and small-break-LOCA transients; safety goals; pressurized thermal shocks; applications of reliability and risk methods to probabilistic risk assessment; human factors and man-machine interface; and data bases and special applications.

Exploring Students' Ideas About Risks and Benefits of Nuclear Power Using Risk Perception Theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kılınç, Ahmet; Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

2013-06-01

Due to increased energy demand, Turkey is continuing to explore the possibilities of introducing nuclear power. Gaining acceptance from local populations, however, may be problematic because nuclear power has a negative image and risk perceptions are complicated by a range of psychological and cultural factors. In this study, we explore the views about nuclear power of school students from three locations in Turkey, two of which have been proposed as sites suitable for nuclear power plants. About half of the student cohort believed that nuclear power can supply continuous and sufficient electricity, but approximately three quarters thought that nuclear power stations could harm organisms, including humans, living nearby. Rather few students realized that adoption of nuclear power would help to reduce global warming and thereby limit climate change; indeed, three quarters thought that nuclear power would make global warming worse. There was a tendency for more students from the location most likely to have a nuclear power plant to believe negative characteristics of nuclear power, and for fewer students to believe positive characteristics. Exploration of the possible nuclear power programmes by Turkey offers an educational opportunity to understand the risk perceptions of students that affect their decision-making processes.

Psychopathy and community violence among civil psychiatric patients: results from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.

PubMed

Skeem, J L; Mulvey, E P

2001-06-01

Although psychopathy is recognized as a relatively strong risk factor for violence among inmates and mentally disordered offenders, few studies have examined the extent to which its predictive power generalizes to civil psychiatric samples. Using data on 1,136 patients from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment project, this study examined whether the 2 scales that underlie the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) measure a unique personality construct that predicts violence among civil patients. The results indicate that the PCL:SV is a relatively strong predictor of violence. The PCL:SV's predictive power is substantially reduced, but remains significant, after controlling for a host of covariates that reflect antisocial behavior and personality disorders other than psychopathy. However, the predictive power of the PCL:SV is not based on its assessment of the core traits of psychopathy, as traditionally construed. Implications for the 2-factor model that underlies the PCL measures and for risk assessment practice are discussed.

Low back pain predict sickness absence among power plant workers

PubMed Central

Murtezani, Ardiana; Hundozi, Hajrije; Orovcanec, Nikola; Berisha, Merita; Meka, Vjollca

2010-01-01

Background: Low back pain (LBP) remains the predominant occupational health problem in most industrialized countries and low-income countries. Both work characteristics and individual factors have been identified as risk factors. More knowledge about the predictors of sickness absence from LBP in the industry will be valuable in determining strategies for prevention. Objectives: The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate whether individual, work-related physical risk factors were involved in the occurrence of LBP sickness absence. Methods: A follow-up study was conducted among 489 workers, aged 18–65 years, at Kosovo Energetic Corporation in Kosovo. This cross-sectional study used a self-administered questionnaire to collect data on individual and work-related risk factors and the occurrence of LBP sickness absence. Logistic regression models were used to determine associations between risk factors and the occurrence of sickness absence due to LBP. Results: Individual factors did not influence sickness absence, whereas work-related physical factors showed strong associations with sickness absence. The main risk factors for sickness absence due to LBP among production workers were extreme trunk flexion (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.05–2.78) as well as very extreme trunk flexion (OR = 6.04, 95% CI = 1.12–32.49) and exposure to whole-body vibration (OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.04–2.95). Conclusion: Reducing sickness absence from LBP among power plant workers requires focusing on the working conditions of blue-collar workers and risk factors for LBP. Increasing social support in the work environment may have effects in reducing sickness absence from LBP. PMID:21120081

Rejection Sensitivity, Perceived Power, and HIV Risk in the Relationships of Low-Income Urban Women.

PubMed

Berenson, Kathy R; Paprocki, Christine; Thomas Fishman, Marget; Bhushan, Devika; El-Bassel, Nabila; Downey, Geraldine

2015-01-01

The psychological processes associated with HIV infection in long-term relationships differ from those operative in casual sexual encounters, and relatively little research has considered the aspects of personality applicable in the ongoing heterosexual relationships in which women are at greatest risk. Sensitivity to rejection has been linked with efforts to prevent rejection at a cost to the self and, therefore, may be relevant to the health risks that many women incur in relationships. We examined the association of rejection sensitivity with women's sexual risk behavior in a sample of women at heightened risk for HIV exposure. Women in long-term heterosexual relationships (N = 159) were recruited for study participation in the hospital emergency room serving a low-income neighborhood in New York City, in 2001-2003. Rejection sensitivity and known HIV risk factors were assessed using verbally administered questionnaires. Rejection sensitivity was associated with lower perceived relationship power and, in turn, more frequent unprotected sex with a partner perceived to be at risk for HIV. These results held when controlling for other HIV risk factors including partner violence, economic dependence, and substance use. Understanding the association of rejection concerns with lower perceived personal power in relationships may be important for HIV prevention.

Rejection Sensitivity, Perceived Power and HIV Risk in the Relationships of Low-Income Urban Women

PubMed Central

Berenson, Kathy R.; Paprocki, Christine; Fishman, Marget Thomas; Bhushan, Devika; El-Bassel, Nabila; Downey, Geraldine

2016-01-01

The psychological processes associated with HIV infection in long-term relationships differ from those operative in casual sexual encounters, and relatively little research has considered the aspects of personality applicable in the ongoing heterosexual relationships in which women are at greatest risk. Sensitivity to rejection has been linked with efforts to prevent rejection at a cost to the self and therefore may be relevant to the health risks that many women incur in relationships. We examined the association of rejection sensitivity with women’s sexual risk behavior in a sample of women at heightened risk for HIV exposure. Women in long-term heterosexual relationships (N = 159) were recruited for study participation in the hospital emergency room serving a low-income neighborhood in New York City, in 2001–2003. Rejection sensitivity and known HIV risk factors were assessed using verbally administered questionnaires. Rejection sensitivity was associated with lower perceived relationship power and in turn, more frequent unprotected sex with a partner perceived to be at risk for HIV. These results held when controlling for other HIV risk factors including partner violence, economic dependence, and substance use. Understanding the association of rejection concerns with lower perceived personal power in relationships may be important for HIV prevention. PMID:26086275

Risk and threat factors in prior representations of driving situations among powered two-wheeler riders and car drivers.

PubMed

Ragot-Court, Isabelle; Mundutéguy, Christophe; Fournier, Jean-Yves

2012-11-01

Our research objective is to contribute to gaining a better understanding of the difficulties inherent to managing interactions between power two-wheeler riders and car drivers. 132 power two-wheeler riders and 94 car drivers have been asked what they perceive as being riskiest in driving situations for the representatives of their generic reference group. From all the answers produced, only those which provide information on risk factors related to the other and the occurrence of interferences due to the dynamic situation have been retained and analysed. The results provide a partial explanation of the difficulties related to the two types of users' taking each other into account. On the one hand, the frequency with which the other is mentioned as a source of risk is linked to the concept of conspicuity. This interpretation is related to the relative frequency of the interactions and the difference of real and perceived vulnerability between the users. On the other hand, the specific risk factors attributed to the other illustrates a mutual misunderstanding or ignorance of the driving situation's determinants. These include various practices among users which can be related to the physical and dynamic characteristics of their vehicle and their level of familiarity with other users. The potential road safety consequences of prior representations of risk factors among users are presented and suggestions for improving road user safety are proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring risk factors associated with intimate partner violence in Vietnam: results from a cross-sectional national survey.

PubMed

Jansen, Henrica A F M; Nguyen, Thi Viet Nga; Hoang, Tu Anh

2016-11-01

Empirical evidence documents that some risk factors for intimate partner violence (IPV) are similar across contexts, while others differ considerably. In Vietnam, there was a need to investigate risk factors for IPV to support evidence-based policy and programming. Using the dataset gathered in the 2010 National Study on Domestic Violence against Women, forty variables were explored in logistic regression analysis, including socio-demographic characteristics of women and their husbands, other experiences with violence, husband's behaviours, family support, and context-specific variables such as the sex of their children. Fifteen independent factors remained strongly associated with IPV. Significant risk was associated with husbands' behaviour that supports male power (extra-marital relationships; fighting with other men) and alcohol use. Violence experienced in childhood increased the likelihood of women experiencing and of men perpetrating IPV. Notable was further the association with women's higher financial contribution to the household and lack of association with not having sons. The findings support theories describing how underlying gender and power imbalance are fundamental causes of IPV and indicate the need for context-specific interventions.

Toward a cumulative ecological risk model for the etiology of child maltreatment

PubMed Central

MacKenzie, Michael J.; Kotch, Jonathan B.; Lee, Li-Ching

2011-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to further the integration of cumulative risk models with empirical research on the etiology of child maltreatment. Despite the well-established literature supporting the importance of the accumulation of ecological risk, this perspective has had difficulty infiltrating empirical maltreatment research and its tendency to focus on more limited risk factors. Utilizing a sample of 842 mother-infant dyads, we compared the capacity of individual risk factors and a cumulative index to predict maltreatment reports in a prospective longitudinal investigation over the first sixteen years of life. The total load of risk in early infancy was found to be related to maternal cognitions surrounding her new role, measures of social support and well-being, and indicators of child cognitive functioning. After controlling for total level of cumulative risk, most single factors failed to predict later maltreatment reports and no single variable provided odd-ratios as powerful as the predictive power of a cumulative index. Continuing the shift away from simplistic causal models toward an appreciation for the cumulative nature of risk would be an important step forward in the way we conceptualize intervention and support programs, concentrating them squarely on alleviating the substantial risk facing so many of society’s families. PMID:24817777

Statistical modeling to support power system planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staid, Andrea

This dissertation focuses on data-analytic approaches that improve our understanding of power system applications to promote better decision-making. It tackles issues of risk analysis, uncertainty management, resource estimation, and the impacts of climate change. Tools of data mining and statistical modeling are used to bring new insight to a variety of complex problems facing today's power system. The overarching goal of this research is to improve the understanding of the power system risk environment for improved operation, investment, and planning decisions. The first chapter introduces some challenges faced in planning for a sustainable power system. Chapter 2 analyzes the driving factors behind the disparity in wind energy investments among states with a goal of determining the impact that state-level policies have on incentivizing wind energy. Findings show that policy differences do not explain the disparities; physical and geographical factors are more important. Chapter 3 extends conventional wind forecasting to a risk-based focus of predicting maximum wind speeds, which are dangerous for offshore operations. Statistical models are presented that issue probabilistic predictions for the highest wind speed expected in a three-hour interval. These models achieve a high degree of accuracy and their use can improve safety and reliability in practice. Chapter 4 examines the challenges of wind power estimation for onshore wind farms. Several methods for wind power resource assessment are compared, and the weaknesses of the Jensen model are demonstrated. For two onshore farms, statistical models outperform other methods, even when very little information is known about the wind farm. Lastly, chapter 5 focuses on the power system more broadly in the context of the risks expected from tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Risks to U.S. power system infrastructure are simulated under different scenarios of tropical cyclone behavior that may result from climate change. The scenario-based approach allows me to address the deep uncertainty present by quantifying the range of impacts, identifying the most critical parameters, and assessing the sensitivity of local areas to a changing risk. Overall, this body of work quantifies the uncertainties present in several operational and planning decisions for power system applications.

Long-term effects of bullying

PubMed Central

Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya

2015-01-01

Bullying is the systematic abuse of power and is defined as aggressive behaviour or intentional harm-doing by peers that is carried out repeatedly and involves an imbalance of power. Being bullied is still often wrongly considered as a ‘normal rite of passage’. This review considers the importance of bullying as a major risk factor for poor physical and mental health and reduced adaptation to adult roles including forming lasting relationships, integrating into work and being economically independent. Bullying by peers has been mostly ignored by health professionals but should be considered as a significant risk factor and safeguarding issue. PMID:25670406

Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

PubMed Central

Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools. PMID:28257103

Predictors of relationship power among drug-involved women.

PubMed

Campbell, Aimee N C; Tross, Susan; Hu, Mei-chen; Pavlicova, Martina; Nunes, Edward V

2012-08-01

Gender-based relationship power is frequently linked to women's capacity to reduce sexual risk behaviors. This study offers an exploration of predictors of relationship power, as measured by the multidimensional and theoretically grounded sexual relationship power scale, among women in outpatient substance abuse treatment. Linear models were used to test nine predictors (age, race/ethnicity, education, time in treatment, economic dependence, substance use, sexual concurrency, partner abuse, and sex role orientation) of relationship power among 513 women participating in a multi-site HIV risk reduction intervention study. Significant predictors of relationship control included having a non-abusive male partner, only one male partner, and endorsing traditional masculine (or both masculine and feminine) sex role attributes. Predictors of decision-making dominance were interrelated, with substance use × partner abuse and age × sex role orientation interactions. Results contribute to the understanding of factors which may influence relationship power and to their potential role in HIV sexual risk reduction interventions.

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

A Study on the Optimal Generation Mix Based on Portfolio Theory with Considering the Basic Condition for Power Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper presents a novel method to analyze the optimal generation mix based on portfolio theory with considering the basic condition for power supply, which means that electricity generation corresponds with load curve. The optimization of portfolio is integrated with the calculation of a capacity factor of each generation in order to satisfy the basic condition for power supply. Besides, each generation is considered to be an asset, and risks of the generation asset both in its operation period and construction period are considered. Environmental measures are evaluated through restriction of CO2 emissions, which are indicated by CO2 price. Numerical examples show the optimal generation mix according to risks such as the deviation of capacity factor of nuclear power or restriction of CO2 emissions, the possibility of introduction of clean coal technology (IGCC, CCS) or renewable energy, and so on. The results of this work will be possibly applied as setting the target of the generation mix for the future according to prospects of risks of each generation and restrictions of CO2 emissions.

Vibration Platform Training in Women at Risk for Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Segal, Neil A.; Glass, Natalie A.; Shakoor, Najia; Wallace, Robert

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a platform exercise program with vibration is more effective than the platform exercise alone for improving lower limb muscle strength and power in women age 45-60 with risk factors for knee osteoarthritis (OA). Design Randomized, controlled study Setting Academic center Participants 48 women age 45-60 years old with risk factors for knee OA (history of knee injury or surgery or BMI≥25kg/m2). Interventions Subjects were randomized to a twice weekly lower limb exercise program (quarter squat, posterolateral leg lifts, calf raises) on either a vertically vibrating (35Hz, 2mm), or a non-vibrating platform. Main Outcome Measurements The main outcome measures included change in isokinetic quadriceps strength, leg press power, and stair climb power by 12 weeks. Results 39 out of 48 enrolled participants completed the study (26 vibration and 13 control exercise). Nine participants discontinued the study after randomization mainly due to lack of time. There were no intergroup differences in age, BMI, or activity level. Isokinetic knee extensor strength did not significantly improve in either group. Leg press power improved by 92.0±69.7 W in the vibration group (p<.0001) and 58.2±96.2 W in the control group (p=0.0499), but did not differ between groups (p=0.2262). Stair climb power improved by 53.4±64.7 W in the vibration group (p=0.0004) and 55.7±83.3 W in the control group (p=0.0329), but did not differ between groups (p=0.9272). Conclusions Whole body vibration platforms have been marketed for increasing strength and power. In this group of asymptomatic middle-aged women with risk factors for knee OA, addition of vibration to a 12-week exercise program did not result in significantly greater improvement in lower limb strength or power than participation in the exercise program without vibration. PMID:22981005

Vibration platform training in women at risk for symptomatic knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Segal, Neil A; Glass, Natalie A; Shakoor, Najia; Wallace, Robert

2013-03-01

To determine whether a platform exercise program with vibration is more effective than platform exercise alone for improving lower limb muscle strength and power in women ages 45 to 60 with risk factors for knee osteoarthritis (OA). Randomized, controlled study. Academic center. A total of 48 women ages 45-60 years with risk factors for knee OA (a history of knee injury or surgery or body mass index ≥25 kg/m(2)). Subjects were randomly assigned to a twice-weekly lower limb exercise program (quarter squat, posterolateral leg lifts, calf raises, step-ups, and lunges) on either a vertically vibrating platform (35 Hz, 2 mm) or a nonvibrating platform. Change in isokinetic quadriceps strength, leg press power, and stair climb power by 12 weeks. A total of 39 of 48 enrolled participants completed the study (26 vibration and 13 control exercise). Nine participants discontinued the study after randomization mainly because of a lack of time. No intergroup differences in age, body mass index, or activity level existed. Isokinetic knee extensor strength did not significantly improve in either group. Leg press power improved by 92.0 ± 69.7 W in the vibration group (P < .0001) and 58.2 ± 96.2 W in the control group (P = .0499) but did not differ between groups (P = .2262). Stair climb power improved by 53.4 ± 64.7 W in the vibration group (P = .0004) and 55.7 ± 83.3 W in the control group (P = .0329) but did not differ between groups (P = .9272). Whole body vibration platforms have been marketed for increasing strength and power. In this group of asymptomatic middle-aged women with risk factors for knee OA, the addition of vibration to a 12-week exercise program did not result in significantly greater improvement in lower limb strength or power than did participation in the exercise program without vibration. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceived exercise benefits and barriers among power wheelchair soccer players.

PubMed

Barfield, J P; Malone, Laurie A

2013-01-01

Lack of exercise is a major risk factor for secondary conditions among persons dependent upon motorized wheelchairs. Power wheelchair soccer is a unique exercise opportunity for this population, and understanding factors that influence exercise decision-making is necessary for clinicians to help those in motorized chairs reduce their secondary risk. Therefore, this study examined differences in perceived benefits and barriers to exercise among power wheelchair soccer players using a mixed-methods analysis. The most common perceived benefit to exercise was "Exercising lets me have contact with friends and persons I enjoy." Post hoc comparisons of quantitative data indicated that persons with muscular dystrophy perceived exercise to be significantly less important than did other disability groups (p < 0.05). "Exercise is hard work for me," "Exercise tires me," and "There are too few places for me to exercise" were the most common perceived barriers. These findings can assist with development of exercise opportunities for power wheelchair users.

Impact of stress and mitigating information on evaluations, attributions, affect, disciplinary choices, and expectations of compliance in mothers at high and low risk for child physical abuse.

PubMed

De Paúl, Joaquín; Asla, Nagore; Pérez-Albéniz, Alicia; de Cádiz, Bárbara Torres-Gómez

2006-08-01

The objective is to know if high-risk mothers for child physical abuse differ in their evaluations, attributions, negative affect, disciplinary choices for children's behavior, and expectations of compliance. The effect of a stressor and the introduction of mitigating information are analyzed. Forty-seven high-risk and 48 matched low-risk mothers participated in the study. Mothers' information processing and disciplinary choices were examined using six vignettes depicting a child engaging in different transgressions. A four-factor design with repeated measures on the last two factors was used. High-risk mothers reported more hostile intent, global and internal attributions, more use of power assertion discipline, and less induction. A risk group by child transgression interaction and a risk group by mitigating information interaction were found. Results support the social information-processing model of child physical abuse, which suggests that high-risk mothers process child-related information differently and use more power assertive and less inductive disciplinary techniques.

The influence of power on HIV risk among pregnant women in rural Haiti.

PubMed

Kershaw, Trace S; Small, Maria; Joseph, Gabriel; Theodore, Melanie; Bateau, Reginald; Frederic, Rikerdy

2006-05-01

Given that condom use is not directly under a woman's control, the sexual division of power may play an important role in sexual behavior among pregnant women. We assessed the influence of factors related to the theory of gender and power (e.g., relationship power, abuse history, and sexual communication) on sexual behavior (e.g., two or more partners in the year prior to pregnancy, condom use, condom-use intentions, and STI diagnosis) among 196 pregnant women recruited from five community dispensaries in rural Haiti. Results showed that gender and power factors significantly related to sexual behavior. Gender and power factors were most significant for condom use and intention to use condoms, accounting for 18 and 25% of the variance above and beyond HIV knowledge and demographic covariates, respectively. These results suggest the need to create prevention interventions that restore power imbalances, provide support for women suffering abuse, and strengthen communication skills.

The Power Behind the Controversy: Understanding Local Policy Elites' Perceptions on the Benefits and Risks Associated with High Voltage Power Line Installation in the State of Arkansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, Rachael M.

Following a proposal for the installation of high voltage power lines in northwest Arkansas, a controversial policy debate emerged. Proponents of the transmission line argue that such an installation is inevitable and necessary to efficiently and reliably support the identified electric load in the region. Opponents claim that the lines will degrade the natural environment and hamper the tourism-based local economy in affected regions, notably in Ozark Mountain areas. This study seeks to understand how local policy elites perceive the benefits and risks associated with proposed transmission lines, which is a critical step in comprehending the formation and changes of related government policies. First, based upon the dual process theory of judgment, this study systematically investigates the triadic relationships between (a) more profound personal value predispositions, (b) affects and feelings, and (c) perceived benefits and risks related to the proposed installation of high voltage power lines among local policy elites in the state of Arkansas. Next, this study focuses more specifically on the role of value predispositions, specific emotional dimensions of affect heuristics, and perceptions pertaining to high voltage power line risks and benefits. Using original data collected from a statewide Internet survey of 420 local leaders and key policymakers about their opinions on the related issues, other factors claimed by previous literature, including trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics are considered. Analytical results suggest that grid-group cultural predispositions, as deeply held core values within local policy elites' individual belief systems, both directly and indirectly -- through affective feelings -- shape perceived utility associated with the installation of high voltage power lines. Recognizing that risk perceptions factor into policy decisions, some practical considerations for better designing policy addressing controversial issues of this nature.

Combining Knowledge and Data Driven Insights for Identifying Risk Factors using Electronic Health Records

PubMed Central

Sun, Jimeng; Hu, Jianying; Luo, Dijun; Markatou, Marianthi; Wang, Fei; Edabollahi, Shahram; Steinhubl, Steven E.; Daar, Zahra; Stewart, Walter F.

2012-01-01

Background: The ability to identify the risk factors related to an adverse condition, e.g., heart failures (HF) diagnosis, is very important for improving care quality and reducing cost. Existing approaches for risk factor identification are either knowledge driven (from guidelines or literatures) or data driven (from observational data). No existing method provides a model to effectively combine expert knowledge with data driven insight for risk factor identification. Methods: We present a systematic approach to enhance known knowledge-based risk factors with additional potential risk factors derived from data. The core of our approach is a sparse regression model with regularization terms that correspond to both knowledge and data driven risk factors. Results: The approach is validated using a large dataset containing 4,644 heart failure cases and 45,981 controls. The outpatient electronic health records (EHRs) for these patients include diagnosis, medication, lab results from 2003–2010. We demonstrate that the proposed method can identify complementary risk factors that are not in the existing known factors and can better predict the onset of HF. We quantitatively compare different sets of risk factors in the context of predicting onset of HF using the performance metric, the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). The combined risk factors between knowledge and data significantly outperform knowledge-based risk factors alone. Furthermore, those additional risk factors are confirmed to be clinically meaningful by a cardiologist. Conclusion: We present a systematic framework for combining knowledge and data driven insights for risk factor identification. We demonstrate the power of this framework in the context of predicting onset of HF, where our approach can successfully identify intuitive and predictive risk factors beyond a set of known HF risk factors. PMID:23304365

[Ecological Correlates of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Korean Blue-collar Workers: A Multi-level Study].

PubMed

Hwang, Won Ju; Park, Yunhee

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate individual and organizational level of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors associated with CVD risk in Korean blue-collar workers working in small sized companies. Self-report questionnaires and blood sampling for lipid and glucose were collected from 492 workers in 31 small sized companies in Korea. Multilevel modeling was conducted to estimate effects of related factors at the individual and organizational level. Multilevel regression analysis showed that workers in the workplace having a cafeteria had 1.81 times higher CVD risk after adjusting for factors at the individual level (p=.022). The explanatory power of variables related to organizational level variances in CVD risk was 17.1%. The results of this study indicate that differences in the CVD risk were related to organizational factors. It is necessary to consider not only individual factors but also organizational factors when planning a CVD risk reduction program. The factors caused by having cafeteria in the workplace can be reduced by improvement in the CVD-related risk environment, therefore an organizational-level intervention approach should be available to reduce CVD risk of workers in small sized companies in Korea.

Occupational and environmental risk factors of adult primary brain cancers: a systematic review.

PubMed

Gomes, J; Al Zayadi, A; Guzman, A

2011-04-01

The incidence of brain neoplasm has been progressively increasing in recent years in the industrialized countries. One of the reasons for this increased incidence could be better access to health care and improved diagnosis in the industrialized countries. It also appears that Caucasians have a higher incidence than blacks or Hispanics or Asians. A number of risk factors have been identified and described including the genetic, ethnic and age-based factors. Certain occupational and environmental factors are also believed to influence the risk of primary adult brain tumors. Potential occupational and environmental factors include exposure to diagnostic and therapeutic radiations, electromagnetic radiation from cellular phones and other wireless devices, infectious agents, air pollution and residence near landfills and high-voltage power lines and jobs as firefighters, farmers, physician, chemists and jobs in industries such as petrochemical, power generation, synthetic rubber manufacturing, agricultural chemicals manufacturing. The purpose of this systematic review is to examine occupational and environmental risk factors of brain neoplasm. A range of occupational and environmental exposures are evaluated for significance of their relationship with adult primary brain tumors. On the basis of this review we suggest a concurrent evaluation of multiple risk factors both within and beyond occupational and environmental domains. The concurrent approach needs to consider better exposure assessment techniques, lifetime occupational exposures, genotypic and phenotypic characteristics and lifestyle and dietary habits. This approach needs to be interdisciplinary with contributions from neurologists, oncologists, epidemiologists and molecular biologists. Conclusive evidence that has eluded multitude of studies with single focus and single exposure needs to multifaceted and multidisciplinary.

Risk factors for recurrent episodes of care and work disability: case of low back pain.

PubMed

Wasiak, Radoslaw; Verma, Santosh; Pransky, Glenn; Webster, Barbara

2004-01-01

Recurrences of injuries are common and have significant socioeconomic consequences; it is important to identify associated risk factors as potential opportunities for prevention. This study was conducted to identify risk factors for low back pain (LBP) recurrence and the extent that variation in recurrence definition impacts identified risk factors. Patients with new claims for LBP reported in New Hampshire to a workers' compensation provider were selected (n = 2023) with a minimum of 3-year follow up. Alternative definitions of recurrence included a new episode of medical care and a new episode of lost work time (work disability). Risk factors better predicted disability-based than treatment-based recurrence. Longer durations of the initial episode of care or work disability were the most powerful predictors of recurrence, implying that shorter episodes of care and early return to work contribute to better outcomes.

Difference in health inequity between two population groups due to a social determinant of health.

PubMed

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Bouye, Karen; Penman-Aguilar, Ana

2014-12-01

The World Health Organization defines social determinants of health as "complex, integrated, and overlapping social structures and economic systems" that are responsible for most health inequities. Similar to the individual-level risk factors such as behavioral and biological risk factors that influence disease, we consider social determinants of health such as the distribution of income, wealth, influence and power as risk factors for risk of disease. We operationally define health inequity in a disease within a population due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable as the difference between the disease outcome with and without the risk factor in the population. We derive expressions for difference in health inequity between two populations due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable for a given disease. The difference in heath inequity between two population groups due to a risk factor increases with increasing difference in relative risks and the difference in prevalence of the risk factor in the two populations. The difference in health inequity could be larger than the difference in health outcomes between the two populations in some situations. Compared to health disparities which are typically measured and monitored using absolute or relative disparities of health outcomes, the methods presented in this manuscript provide a different, yet complementary, picture because they parse out the contributions of unfair and avoidable risk factors.

Difference in Health Inequity between Two Population Groups due to a Social Determinant of Health

PubMed Central

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Bouye, Karen; Penman-Aguilar, Ana

2014-01-01

The World Health Organization defines social determinants of health as “complex, integrated, and overlapping social structures and economic systems” that are responsible for most health inequities. Similar to the individual-level risk factors such as behavioral and biological risk factors that influence disease, we consider social determinants of health such as the distribution of income, wealth, influence and power as risk factors for risk of disease. We operationally define health inequity in a disease within a population due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable as the difference between the disease outcome with and without the risk factor in the population. We derive expressions for difference in health inequity between two populations due to a risk factor that is unfair and avoidable for a given disease. The difference in heath inequity between two population groups due to a risk factor increases with increasing difference in relative risks and the difference in prevalence of the risk factor in the two populations. The difference in health inequity could be larger than the difference in health outcomes between the two populations in some situations. Compared to health disparities which are typically measured and monitored using absolute or relative disparities of health outcomes, the methods presented in this manuscript provide a different, yet complementary, picture because they parse out the contributions of unfair and avoidable risk factors. PMID:25522048

Utilizing Dental Electronic Health Records Data to Predict Risk for Periodontal Disease.

PubMed

Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Vyawahare, Karnali; Darade, Pratiksha; Paranjape, Rhucha

2015-01-01

Periodontal disease is a major cause for tooth loss and adversely affects individuals' oral health and quality of life. Research shows its potential association with systemic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and social habits such as smoking. This study explores mining potential risk factors from dental electronic health records to predict and display patients' contextualized risk for periodontal disease. We retrieved relevant risk factors from structured and unstructured data on 2,370 patients who underwent comprehensive oral examinations at the Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis, IN, USA. Predicting overall risk and displaying relationships between risk factors and their influence on the patient's oral and general health can be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians at the point of care.

Predictors of Relationship Power among Drug-involved Women

PubMed Central

Campbell, Aimee N. C.; Tross, Susan; Hu, Mei-chen; Pavlicova, Martina; Nunes, Edward V.

2012-01-01

Gender-based relationship power is frequently linked to women’s capacity to reduce sexual risk behaviors. This study offers an exploration of predictors of relationship power, as measured by the multidimensional and theoretically grounded Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS), among women in outpatient substance abuse treatment. Linear models were used to test nine predictors (age, race/ethnicity, education, time in treatment, economic dependence, substance use, sexual concurrency, partner abuse, sex role orientation) of relationship power among 513 women participating in a multi-site HIV risk reduction intervention study. Significant predictors of relationship control included having a non-abusive male partner, only one male partner, and endorsing traditional masculine (or both masculine and feminine) sex role attributes. Predictors of decision-making dominance were interrelated, with substance use x partner abuse and age x sex role orientation interactions. Results contribute to the understanding of factors which may influence relationship power and to their potential role in HIV sexual risk reduction interventions. PMID:22614746

Leg extension power is a pre-disaster modifiable risk factor for post-traumatic stress disorder among survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Momma, Haruki; Niu, Kaijun; Kobayashi, Yoritoshi; Huang, Cong; Otomo, Atsushi; Chujo, Masahiko; Tadaura, Hiroko; Nagatomi, Ryoichi

2014-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a common psychological problem following natural disasters. Although pre-disaster risk factors are important for early detection and proactive support, the examination of such has been limited to sociodemographic factors, which were largely unaffected by the disasters. We examined the association between pre-disaster physical functioning and lifestyle and PTSD symptoms five months after the earthquake in the Great East Japan Earthquake survivors who were participating in a pre-existing cohort study. We designed a retrospective cohort study of a cooperative association in Sendai from August 2010 to August 2011. In 2010, lifestyle, physical condition, and sociodemographic factors were examined by self-reported questionnaires completed by 522 employees of this organization. We also measured the leg extension power of all the participants. PTSD symptoms were evaluated by the Japanese version of the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R-J) following the earthquake of 2011. In multivariate linear regression analysis, leg extension power (β = -0.128, P = 0.025), daily drinking (β  = 0.203, P = 0.006), and depressive symptoms (β  = 0.139, P = 0.008) were associated with total score of the IES-R-J among men. Moreover, for the IES-R-J subscale, leg extension power was also negatively associated with Intrusion (β = -0.114, P = 0.045) and Hyperarousal (β = -0.163, P = 0.004) after adjusting for all other significant variables. For women, hypertension (β  = 0.226, P = 0.032) and depressive symptoms (β  = 0.205, P = 0.046) were associated with the total score of the IES-R-J. Leg extension power is a potentially modifiable pre-disaster risk factor among men for attenuating the severity of PTSD symptoms associated with great disasters such as the Great East Japan Earthquake among men.

Testing a Model of Environmental Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Middle and High School Students' Academic Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, S. Colby; Woolley, Michael E.

2015-01-01

Data from the School Success Profile generated by 19,228 middle and high school students were organized into three broad categories of risk and protective factors--control, support, and challenge--to examine the relative and combined power of aggregate scale scores in each category so as to predict academic success. It was hypothesized that higher…

Independent from muscle power and balance performance, a creatinine clearance below 65 ml/min is a significant and independent risk factor for falls and fall-related fractures in elderly men and women diagnosed with osteoporosis.

PubMed

Dukas, L; Schacht, E; Runge, M

2010-07-01

We assessed in a cross-sectional study in elderly men and women with osteoporosis, the association between the creatinine clearance (CrCl) and the performance in different balance and muscle power and function tests and found that a decreasing creatinine clearance was significantly associated with lower balance and muscle power. To determine if a creatinine clearance of <65 ml/min is significantly associated with decreasing muscle power and balance and an increased risk for falls and fractures. We assessed in a cross-sectional-study in 1781 German osteoporotic patients, the association between the CrCl, the physical performance, and the number of falls and fractures. Controlling for age, gender, BMI, and osteoporosis treatment (fracture analysis only), a decreasing CrCl was associated with lower physical performance in the timed-up-and-go test (corr -0.2337, P < 0.0001), chair-rising test (corr -0.1706, P < 0.001), and tandem-stand test (corr 0.2193, P < 0.0001), and a CrCl of <65 ml/min was associated with a significantly higher risk for falls (47.7% vs. 36.2%, P = 0.0008) and fall-related fractures (33.1% vs. 22.9%, P = 0.0003) compared with a CrCl of >or=65 ml/min. In this study, we found a significant gender-independent correlation between decreasing CrCl and lower performance in balance and muscle power tests. Reduced muscle power and balance may therefore be involved in the low creatinine clearance associated increased risk for falls and fall-related fractures. Furthermore, we found that a CrCl <65 ml/min., independent from the performance in muscle power, muscle function, and balance tests, is a significant risk factor for falls and fractures.

Relationship power and sexual risk among women in community-based substance abuse treatment.

PubMed

Campbell, Aimee N C; Tross, Susan; Dworkin, Shari L; Hu, Mei-Chen; Manuel, Jennifer; Pavlicova, Martina; Nunes, Edward V

2009-11-01

Relationship power has been highlighted as a major factor influencing women's safer sex practices. Little research, however, has specifically examined relationship power in drug-involved women, a population with increased risk for HIV transmission. Using baseline data from a National Institute on Drug Abuse Clinical Trials Network multisite trial of a women's HIV prevention intervention in community-based drug treatment programs, this paper examined the association between sexual relationship power and unprotected vaginal or anal sex. The Sexual Relationship Power Scale, a measure of relationship control and decision-making dominance, was used to assess the association between power and unprotected sex in relationships with primary male partners. It was hypothesized that increased relationship power would be associated with decreased unprotected sexual occasions, after controlling for relevant empirical and theoretical covariates. Findings show a more complex picture of the association between power and sexual risk in this population, with a main effect in the hypothesized direction for decision-making dominance but not for relationship control. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed, and future research directions for examining power constructs and developing interventions targeting relationship power among drug-involved women are suggested.

Physical Activity, Sedentary Behaviours, and Cardiovascular Health: When Will Cardiorespiratory Fitness Become a Vital Sign?

PubMed

Després, Jean-Pierre

2016-04-01

Although it is generally agreed upon that a physically active lifestyle and regular exercise are good for heart health, it is much less appreciated by the public that the prolonged hours of sedentary time resulting from sitting at work or screen time are also risk factors for cardiovascular outcomes and other cardiometabolic diseases. In this short narrative review, evidence is discussed and prudent recommendations are made in the context of the sedentary, affluent lifestyle that characterizes a large proportion of our population. It has become overwhelmingly clear that a sedentary lifestyle is a powerful risk factor for cardiovascular and other chronic diseases. In addition, vigorous physical activity and exercise is also associated with metabolic and cardiovascular adaptations that are compatible with cardiovascular health. In that regard, cardiorespiratory fitness, a reliable metric to assess the ability of the cardiovascular system to sustain prolonged physical work, has been shown to be the most powerful predictor of mortality and morbidity, way beyond classical cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as smoking, cholesterol, hypertension, and diabetes. On the basis of the evidence available, it is proposed that both dimensions of overall physical activity level (reducing sedentary time and performing regular physical activity or endurance type exercise) should be targeted to reduce CVD risk. Finally, because of the robust evidence that poor cardiorespiratory fitness is an independent risk factor for CVD and related mortality, it is proposed that this simple physiological metric should be incorporated as a vital sign in CVD risk factor evaluation and management. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perinatal factors and the risk of bipolar disorder in Finland.

PubMed

Chudal, Roshan; Sourander, Andre; Polo-Kantola, Päivi; Hinkka-Yli-Salomäki, Susanna; Lehti, Venla; Sucksdorff, Dan; Gissler, Mika; Brown, Alan S

2014-02-01

Complications during the perinatal period have been associated with neurodevelopmental disorders like schizophrenia and autism. However, similar studies on bipolar disorder (BPD) have been limited and the findings are inconsistent. The aim of this study was to examine the association between perinatal risk factors and BPD. This nested case-control study, based on the Finnish Prenatal Study of Bipolar Disorders (FIPS-B), identified 724 cases and 1419 matched controls from population based registers. Conditional logistic regression was used to examine the associations between perinatal factors and BPD adjusting for potential confounding due to maternal age, psychiatric history and educational level, place of birth, number of previous births and maternal smoking during pregnancy. Children delivered by planned cesarean section had a 2.5-fold increased risk of BPD (95% CI: 1.32-4.78, P<0.01). No association was seen between other examined perinatal risk factors and BPD. The limitations of this study include: the restriction in the sample to treated cases of BPD in the population, and usage of hospital based clinical diagnosis for case ascertainment. In addition, in spite of the large sample size, there was low power to detect associations for certain exposures including the lowest birth weight category and pre-term birth. Birth by planned cesarean section was associated with risk of BPD, but most other perinatal risk factors examined in this study were not associated with BPD. Larger studies with greater statistical power to detect less common exposures and studies utilizing prospective biomarker-based exposures are necessary in the future. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Risk factors and study designs used in research of youths' suicide behaviour-an epidemiological discussion with focus on level of evidence.

PubMed

Christiansen, Erik; Larsen, Kim Juul; Agerbo, Esben; Bilenberg, Niels; Stenager, Elsebeth

2014-11-01

Abstract Introduction: Many different epidemiology study designs have been used to analyse risk factors for suicide behaviour. The purpose of this study was to obtain an insight into the current study design used in research on youths' risk factors for suicide behaviour and to rank the studies according to level of evidence (LoE). We searched PubMed and psycINFO in order to identify relevant individual studies. We included 36 studies of children and youth on suicidal behaviour and ideation-many rank low on LoE. For suicide, cohort design was often used, and mental illness (depression, substance abuse and severity of mental illness) was the most common risk factor. Cohort studies are ranked 2b, which is high according to LoE. For suicide attempts, survey was often used, and psychopathology, substance abuse and being exposed to suicidal behaviour were the most common risk factors. For suicidal ideation, survey was the only design used, and substance abuse and psychopathology the most common risk factors. Surveys are ranked 4, which are low according to LoE. Many risk factors were broad and unspecific, and standard definitions of outcome and exposure were rarely used. A good study of risk factors for suicidal behaviour would need a high LoE, as a high-powered longitudinal epidemiological study (cohort or case-control) of very specific risk factors. The factors would have high prevention potential, compared with more broad and unspecific risk factors, to which many people are exposed. We would recommend a cohort design (in high-risk populations) or a case-control design to identify risk factors, using clinical and/or register data instead of self-reported information, reporting adjusted estimates and using standard definition of suicidal outcome and risk factors.

Application of a hazard and operability study method to hazard evaluation of a chemical unit of the power station.

PubMed

Habibi, E; Zare, M; Barkhordari, A; Mirmohammadi, Sj; Halvani, Ghh

2008-12-28

The aim of this study was to identify the hazards, evaluate their risk factors and determine the measure for promotion of the process and reduction of accidents in the chemical unit of the power station. In this case and qualitative study, HAZOP technique was used to recognize the hazards and problems of operations on the chemical section at power station. Totally, 126 deviations were documented with various causes and consequences. Ranking and evaluation of identified risks indicate that the majority of deviations were categorized as "acceptable" and less than half of that were "unacceptable". The highest calculated risk level (1B) related to both the interruption of acid entry to the discharge pumps and an increased density of the acid. About 27% of the deviations had the lowest risk level (4B). The identification of hazards by HAZOP indicates that it could, systemically, assess and criticize the process of consumption or production of acid and alkali in the chemical unit of power plant.

The social patterns of a biological risk factor for disease: race, gender, socioeconomic position, and C-reactive protein.

PubMed

Herd, Pamela; Karraker, Amelia; Friedman, Elliot

2012-07-01

Understand the links between race and C-reactive protein (CRP), with special attention to gender differences and the role of class and behavioral risk factors as mediators. This study utilizes the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project data, a nationally representative study of older Americans aged 57-85 to explore two research questions. First, what is the relative strength of socioeconomic versus behavioral risk factors in explaining race differences in CRP levels? Second, what role does gender play in understanding race differences? Does the relative role of socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors in explaining race differences vary when examining men and women separately? When examining men and women separately, socioeconomic and behavioral risk factor mediators vary in their importance. Indeed, racial differences in CRP among men aged 57-74 are little changed after adjusting for both socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors with levels 35% higher for black men as compared to white men. For women aged 57-74, however, behavioral risk factors explain 30% of the relationship between race and CRP. The limited explanatory power of socioeconomic position and, particularly, behavioral risk factors, in elucidating the relationship between race and CRP among men, signals the need for research to examine additional mediators, including more direct measures of stress and discrimination.

Low peak jump power is associated with elevated odds of dysmobility syndrome in community-dwelling elderly individuals: the Korean Urban Rural Elderly (KURE) study.

PubMed

Hong, Namki; Kim, Chang Oh; Youm, Yoosik; Kim, Hyeon Chang; Rhee, Yumie

2018-06-01

In a community-dwelling elderly cohort (Korean Urban Rural Elderly), low peak jump power was associated with elevated odds of dysmobility syndrome and its components, independent of age and comorbidities. Jump power measurement improved discrimination of individuals with dysmobility syndrome when added to conventional risk factors. Dysmobility syndrome was proposed to encompass the risks affecting musculoskeletal outcomes. Jump power measurement is a safe, reproducible high-intensity test for physical function in elderly. However, the relationship between jump power and dysmobility syndrome remains unknown. A total of 1369 subjects (mean 71.6 years; women, 66%) were analyzed from a community-based cohort. Dysmobility syndrome was defined as the presence of ≥ 3 factors among falls in the preceding year, low lean mass, high fat mass, osteoporosis, low grip strength, and low timed get-up-and-go (TUG) performance. Subjects were grouped into tertiles of jump power relative to weight based on sex-stratified cutoffs (32.4 and 27.6 W/kg in men; 23.9 and 19.9 W/kg in women) or into the failed-to-jump group. The prevalence of dysmobility syndrome was 20% overall, increasing from the highest (T1) to lowest (T3) jump power tertile (1, 11, 15% in men; 11, 16, 39% in women) and the failed-to-jump group (39% in men; 48% in women). Low jump power or failed-to-jump was associated with elevated odds of dysmobility syndrome (T3 vs. T1, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.35, p < 0.001; failed-to-jump vs. T1, aOR 7.60, p < 0.001) and its components including falls, low lean mass, high fat mass, and poor TUG performance but not osteoporosis after adjustment for covariates. Jump power modestly discriminated dysmobility syndrome (area under the curve [AUC], 0.71, p < 0.001), which improved discriminatory performance when added to conventional risk factors (AUC, from 0.75 to 0.79, p < 0.001). Low peak jump power was associated with elevated odds of dysmobility syndrome and its components, independent of age and comorbidities.

Minimizing forced outage risk in generator bidding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Dibyendu

Competition in power markets has exposed the participating companies to physical and financial uncertainties. Generator companies bid to supply power in a day-ahead market. Once their bids are accepted by the ISO they are bound to supply power. A random outage after acceptance of bids forces a generator to buy power from the expensive real-time hourly spot market and sell to the ISO at the set day-ahead market clearing price, incurring losses. A risk management technique is developed to assess this financial risk associated with forced outages of generators and then minimize it. This work presents a risk assessment module which measures the financial risk of generators bidding in an open market for different bidding scenarios. The day-ahead power market auction is modeled using a Unit Commitment algorithm and a combination of Normal and Cauchy distributions generate the real time hourly spot market. Risk profiles are derived and VaRs are calculated at 98 percent confidence level as a measure of financial risk. Risk Profiles and VaRs help the generators to analyze the forced outage risk and different factors affecting it. The VaRs and the estimated total earning for different bidding scenarios are used to develop a risk minimization module. This module will develop a bidding strategy of the generator company such that its estimated total earning is maximized keeping the VaR below a tolerable limit. This general framework of a risk management technique for the generating companies bidding in competitive day-ahead market can also help them in decisions related to building new generators.

Complex systems analysis of series of blackouts: cascading failure, critical points, and self-organization.

PubMed

Dobson, Ian; Carreras, Benjamin A; Lynch, Vickie E; Newman, David E

2007-06-01

We give an overview of a complex systems approach to large blackouts of electric power transmission systems caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics and dynamics of series of blackouts with approximate global models. Blackout data from several countries suggest that the frequency of large blackouts is governed by a power law. The power law makes the risk of large blackouts consequential and is consistent with the power system being a complex system designed and operated near a critical point. Power system overall loading or stress relative to operating limits is a key factor affecting the risk of cascading failure. Power system blackout models and abstract models of cascading failure show critical points with power law behavior as load is increased. To explain why the power system is operated near these critical points and inspired by concepts from self-organized criticality, we suggest that power system operating margins evolve slowly to near a critical point and confirm this idea using a power system model. The slow evolution of the power system is driven by a steady increase in electric loading, economic pressures to maximize the use of the grid, and the engineering responses to blackouts that upgrade the system. Mitigation of blackout risk should account for dynamical effects in complex self-organized critical systems. For example, some methods of suppressing small blackouts could ultimately increase the risk of large blackouts.

High-powered microwave ablation of larger hepatocellular carcinoma: evaluation of recurrence rate and factors related to recurrence.

PubMed

Zhang, N N; Lu, W; Cheng, X J; Liu, J Y; Zhou, Y H; Li, F

2015-11-01

To evaluate the safety and efficacy of high-powered (80-100 W) percutaneous microwave ablation (MWA) at a frequency of 2450±10 MHz for treating larger hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to predict the risk factors of local recurrence after high-powered MWA. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board, and informed consent was waived because of the retrospective study design. Forty-five patients with a total of 60 lesions received high-power (80-100 W) MWA at a frequency of 2450±10 MHz through a percutaneous approach that was guided by ultrasound. Of the 60 lesions with a maximum tumour measuring 3-8 cm, 46 lesions were 3-5 cm and 14 were 5-8 cm. The complete ablation rates, local recurrence rates, complications, and short-term survival were analysed. Ten possible risk factors for local recurrence were analysed. The complete ablation rates were 82.61% for the first ablation and 100% for the second ablation for 3-5 cm lesions. The complete ablation rates were 64.29% (82.61% versus 64.29%, p=0.037) for the first ablation and 85.71% (100% versus 85.71%, p=0.055) for the second ablation for 5-8 cm lesions. Local recurrence was observed in 11 out of the 45 (24.44%) successfully treated patients. The 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 95.56% (43/45) and 86.67% (39/45), respectively. No procedure-related mortality was observed and no major bleeding, liver rupture, or liver abscesses occurred. Univariate analysis showed that a positive correlation existed between the number of lesions (p=0.022), proximity to the risk area (p=0.001), pre-ablation alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels (p=0.025), hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA replication (p=0.027) and local recurrence. Multivariate analysis identified HBV-DNA (p=0.031) and proximity to the risk area (p=0.039) as the independent prognosis factors causing postoperative HCC local recurrence. High-powered MWA of larger hepatocellular carcinomas appears to be a safe and effective treatment. HBV-DNA and proximity to the risk area appear to be independent predictors of local tumour recurrence. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived blood transfusion safety: a cross-European comparison.

PubMed

Merz, E-M; Zijlstra, B J H; de Kort, W L A M

2016-04-01

During the past decades, blood transfusions have become an ever safer clinical procedure in developed countries. Extensive donor screening together with improved infectious disease testing has led to a minimization of risks for transfusion recipients. Still, the general public perceives the process of blood transfusion as risky. This study tested variation in perceived transfusion safety across countries and explained it with individual and country factors. We examined whether individual demographic and macro-level factors (i.e. Human Development Index and Power Distance Index) explain variation within and across European countries. We applied multilevel models to 2009 Eurobarometer data collected in 26 countries (N = 20 874). Results were largely in line with expectations derived from risk perception and power and status difference theories. Generally, women, older adults, the lower educated and those earning lower incomes perceived heightened risk. Most of the variation across Europe was explained by the Human Development Index. Risk perception regarding blood transfusions was lower in countries with higher Human Development Indices, that is countries with higher average education, life expectancy and Gross Domestic Product. This study provides new insights of how risk perception regarding blood transfusions is shaped within and across Europe. Both individual demographic factors and country characteristics play a role. © 2015 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Frequency of viral infections and environmental factors in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Eftekharian, Mohammad Mahdi; Ghannad, Masoud Sabouri; Taheri, Mohammad; Roshanaei, Ghodratollah; Mazdeh, Mehrdokht; Musavi, Mehrnoosh; Hormoz, Mona Bahmani

2016-06-08

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complicated disease which occurs due to relationship between genes and environmental factors that causes tissue damage by autoimmune mechanisms.We investigated and illustrated the hypotheses correlated to the evidence of several putative environmental risk factors for MS onset and progression in this part of Iran. Univariate logistic regression was used to detect the effects of environmental factors on the risk of MS. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 16. The childhood history of patients with rubella, measles and chickenpox increased the risk of MS significantly. Moreover, low consumption of dairy products, avoidance of seafood consumption, cigarette smoking and exposure to tobacco smoke, stress, anxiety disorders, depress and disturbing thoughts, negative and disturbing thoughts, developing a sudden shock upon hearing bad news, having obsessive-compulsive and being depressed increased the risk of MS significantly. The results of the current research partially solved the puzzling question of complex interplay between environmental factors and MS disease in this part of Iran. Incorporating these factors enables more powerful and accurate detection of novel risk factors with diagnostic and prognostic methods.

Empirical analysis of farmers' drought risk perception: objective factors, personal circumstances, and social influence.

PubMed

Duinen, Rianne van; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Peter; Veen, Anne van der

2015-04-01

Drought-induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers' drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers' drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers' drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers' risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought-/salt-sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers' drought risk perceptions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Measurement Error. Potential Effect on Clinical Study Results

PubMed Central

Cooke, Colin R.; Iwashyna, Theodore J.; Hofer, Timothy P.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Identifying patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a recognized challenge. Experts often have only moderate agreement when applying the clinical definition of ARDS to patients. However, no study has fully examined the implications of low reliability measurement of ARDS on clinical studies. Objectives: To investigate how the degree of variability in ARDS measurement commonly reported in clinical studies affects study power, the accuracy of treatment effect estimates, and the measured strength of risk factor associations. Methods: We examined the effect of ARDS measurement error in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of ARDS-specific treatments and cohort studies using simulations. We varied the reliability of ARDS diagnosis, quantified as the interobserver reliability (κ-statistic) between two reviewers. In RCT simulations, patients identified as having ARDS were enrolled, and when measurement error was present, patients without ARDS could be enrolled. In cohort studies, risk factors as potential predictors were analyzed using reviewer-identified ARDS as the outcome variable. Measurements and Main Results: Lower reliability measurement of ARDS during patient enrollment in RCTs seriously degraded study power. Holding effect size constant, the sample size necessary to attain adequate statistical power increased by more than 50% as reliability declined, although the result was sensitive to ARDS prevalence. In a 1,400-patient clinical trial, the sample size necessary to maintain similar statistical power increased to over 1,900 when reliability declined from perfect to substantial (κ = 0.72). Lower reliability measurement diminished the apparent effectiveness of an ARDS-specific treatment from a 15.2% (95% confidence interval, 9.4–20.9%) absolute risk reduction in mortality to 10.9% (95% confidence interval, 4.7–16.2%) when reliability declined to moderate (κ = 0.51). In cohort studies, the effect on risk factor associations was similar. Conclusions: ARDS measurement error can seriously degrade statistical power and effect size estimates of clinical studies. The reliability of ARDS measurement warrants careful attention in future ARDS clinical studies. PMID:27159648

Effects of vertical and side-alternating vibration training on fall risk factors and bone turnover in older people at risk of falls.

PubMed

Corrie, Heather; Brooke-Wavell, Katherine; Mansfield, Neil J; Cowley, Alison; Morris, Robert; Masud, Tahir

2015-01-01

whole-body vibration training may improve neuromuscular function, falls risk and bone density, but previous studies have had conflicting findings. this study aimed to evaluate the influence of vertical vibration (VV) and side-alternating vibration (SV) on musculoskeletal health in older people at risk of falls. single-blind, randomised, controlled trial comparing vibration training to sham vibration (Sham) in addition to usual care. participants were 61 older people (37 women and 24 men), aged 80.2 + 6.5 years, referred to an outpatient falls prevention service. participants were randomly assigned to VV, SV or Sham in addition to the usual falls prevention programme. Participants were requested to attend three vibration sessions per week for 12 weeks, with sessions increasing to six, 1 min bouts of vibration. Falls risk factors and neuromuscular tests were assessed, and blood samples collected for determination of bone turnover, at baseline and following the intervention. chair stand time, timed-up-and-go time, fear of falling, NEADL index and postural sway with eyes open improved in the Sham group. There were significantly greater gains in leg power in the VV than in the Sham group and in bone formation in SV and VV compared with the Sham group. Conversely, body sway improved less in the VV than in the Sham group. Changes in falls risk factors did not differ between the groups. whole-body vibration increased leg power and bone formation, but it did not provide any additional benefits to balance or fall risk factors beyond a falls prevention programme in older people at risk of falls. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

High density operation for reactor-relevant power exhaust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wischmeier, M.; ASDEX Upgrade Team; Jet Efda Contributors

2015-08-01

With increasing size of a tokamak device and associated fusion power gain an increasing power flux density towards the divertor needs to be handled. A solution for handling this power flux is crucial for a safe and economic operation. Using purely geometric arguments in an ITER-like divertor this power flux can be reduced by approximately a factor 100. Based on a conservative extrapolation of current technology for an integrated engineering approach to remove power deposited on plasma facing components a further reduction of the power flux density via volumetric processes in the plasma by up to a factor of 50 is required. Our current ability to interpret existing power exhaust scenarios using numerical transport codes is analyzed and an operational scenario as a potential solution for ITER like divertors under high density and highly radiating reactor-relevant conditions is presented. Alternative concepts for risk mitigation as well as strategies for moving forward are outlined.

Effects of life satisfaction and psychache on risk for suicidal behaviour: a cross-sectional study based on data from Chinese undergraduates

PubMed Central

You, Zhiqi; Song, Juanjuan; Wu, Caizhi; Qin, Ping; Zhou, Zongkui

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine predictive power of psychache and life satisfaction on risks for suicidal ideation and suicide attempt among young people. Design A cross-sectional study. Setting Data were collected from an online survey in Wuhan, China. Participants 5988 university students from six universities were selected by a stratified cluster sampling method. Primary and secondary outcome measures Suicidal ideation and suicide attempt at some point of the students’ lifetime were the outcomes of interest. Results Students with suicidal ideation or attempted suicide reported a lower level of life satisfaction and high degree of psychache than counterparts without suicidal ideation or attempt. Regression analyses indicated that life satisfaction and psychache were significantly associated with the risk of suicidal ideation and the risk of suicidal attempt. Though psychache showed a relatively stronger predictive power than life satisfaction, the effect of the two factors remained significant when they were individually adjusted for personal demographic characteristics. However, when the two factors were included in the model simultaneously to adjust for each other, psychache could fully explain the association between life satisfaction and suicidal attempt. Life satisfaction remained to contribute unique variance in the statistical prediction of suicidal ideation. Conclusions Psychache and life satisfaction both have a significant predictive power on risk for suicidal behaviour, and life satisfaction could relieve the predictive power of psychache when suicidal behaviour is just starting. Shneidman's theory that psychache is the pre-eminent psychological cause of suicide is perhaps applicable only to a more serious form of suicidal behaviour. PMID:24657883

Does IQ explain socio-economic differentials in total and cardiovascular disease mortality? Comparison with the explanatory power of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Vietnam Experience Study.

PubMed

Batty, G David; Shipley, Martin J; Dundas, Ruth; Macintyre, Sally; Der, Geoff; Mortensen, Laust H; Deary, Ian J

2009-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine the explanatory power of intelligence (IQ) compared with traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the relationship of socio-economic disadvantage with total and CVD mortality, that is the extent to which IQ may account for the variance in this well-documented association. Cohort study of 4289 US male former military personnel with data on four widely used markers of socio-economic position (early adulthood and current income, occupational prestige, and education), IQ test scores (early adulthood and middle-age), a range of nine established CVD risk factors (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total blood cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, smoking, blood glucose, resting heart rate, and forced expiratory volume in 1 s), and later mortality. We used the relative index of inequality (RII) to quantify the relation between each index of socio-economic position and mortality. Fifteen years of mortality surveillance gave rise to 237 deaths (62 from CVD and 175 from 'other' causes). In age-adjusted analyses, as expected, each of the four indices of socio-economic position was inversely associated with total, CVD, and 'other' causes of mortality, such that elevated rates were evident in the most socio-economically disadvantaged men. When IQ in middle-age was introduced to the age-adjusted model, there was marked attenuation in the RII across the socio-economic predictors for total mortality (average 50% attenuation in RII), CVD (55%), and 'other' causes of death (49%). When the nine traditional risk factors were added to the age-adjusted model, the comparable reduction in RII was less marked than that seen after IQ adjustment: all-causes (40%), CVD (40%), and 'other' mortality (43%). Adding IQ to the latter model resulted in marked, additional explanatory power for all outcomes in comparison to the age-adjusted analyses: all-causes (63%), CVD (63%), and 'other' mortality (65%). When we utilized IQ in early adulthood rather than middle-age as an explanatory variable, the attenuating effect on the socio-economic gradient was less pronounced although the same pattern was still present. In the present analyses of socio-economic gradients in total and CVD mortality, IQ appeared to offer greater explanatory power than that apparent for traditional CVD risk factors.

Long-term effects of bullying.

PubMed

Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Suzet Tanya

2015-09-01

Bullying is the systematic abuse of power and is defined as aggressive behaviour or intentional harm-doing by peers that is carried out repeatedly and involves an imbalance of power. Being bullied is still often wrongly considered as a 'normal rite of passage'. This review considers the importance of bullying as a major risk factor for poor physical and mental health and reduced adaptation to adult roles including forming lasting relationships, integrating into work and being economically independent. Bullying by peers has been mostly ignored by health professionals but should be considered as a significant risk factor and safeguarding issue. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Domestic decision-making power, social support, and postpartum depression symptoms among immigrant and native women in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chien, Li-Yin; Tai, Chen-Jei; Yeh, Mei-Chiang

2012-01-01

Domestic decision-making power is an integral part of women's empowerment. No study has linked domestic decision-making power and social support concurrently to postpartum depression and compared these between immigrant and native populations. The aim of this study was to examine domestic decision-making power and social support and their relationship to postpartum depressive symptoms among immigrant and native women in Taiwan. This cross-sectional survey included 190 immigrant and 190 native women who had delivered healthy babies during the past year in Taipei City. Depression was measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, with a cutoff score of 10. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with postpartum depression symptoms. Immigrant mothers had significantly higher prevalence of postpartum depression symptoms (41.1% vs. 8.4%) and had significantly lower levels of domestic decision-making power and social support than native mothers did. Logistic regression showed that insufficient family income was associated with an increased risk of postpartum depression symptoms, whereas social support and domestic decision-making power levels were associated negatively with postpartum depression symptoms. After accounting for these factors, immigrant women remained at higher risk of postpartum depression symptoms than native women did, odds ratio = 2.59, 95% CI [1.27, 5.28]. Domestic decision-making power and social support are independent protective factors for postpartum depression symptoms among immigrant and native women in Taiwan. Social support and empowerment interventions should be tested to discover whether they are able to prevent or alleviate postpartum depression symptoms, with special emphasis on immigrant mothers.

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

PubMed Central

Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

2016-01-01

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

Intimate Partner Violence, Relationship Power Inequity and the Role of Sexual and Social Risk Factors in the Production of Violence among Young Women Who Have Multiple Sexual Partners in a Peri-Urban Setting in South Africa

PubMed Central

Zembe, Yanga Z.; Townsend, Loraine; Thorson, Anna; Silberschmidt, Margrethe; Ekstrom, Anna Mia

2015-01-01

Introduction This paper aims to assess the extent and correlates of intimate partner violence (IPV), explore relationship power inequity and the role of sexual and social risk factors in the production of violence among young women aged 16–24 reporting more than one partner in the past three months in a peri-urban setting in the Western Cape, South Africa. Recent estimates suggest that every six hours a woman is killed by an intimate partner in South Africa, making IPV a leading public health problem in the country. While there is mounting evidence that levels of IPV are high in peri-urban settings in South Africa, not much is known about how it manifests among women who engage in concomitantly high HIV risk behaviours such as multiple sexual partnering, transactional sex and age mixing. We know even less about how such women negotiate power and control if exposed to violence in such sexual networks. Methods Two hundred and fifty nine women with multiple sexual partners, residing in a predominantly Black peri-urban community in the Western Cape, South Africa, were recruited into a bio-behavioural survey using Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). After the survey, focus group discussions and individual interviews were conducted among young women and men to understand the underlying factors informing their risk behaviours and experiences of violence. Findings 86% of the young women experienced IPV in the past 12 months. Sexual IPV was significantly correlated with sex with a man who was 5 years or older than the index female partner (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0–3.2) and transactional sex with most recent casual partner (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1–3.8). Predictably, women experienced high levels of relationship power inequity. However, they also identified areas in their controlling relationships where they shared decision making power. Discussion Levels of IPV among young women with multiple sexual partners were much higher than what is reported among women in the general population and shown to be associated with sexual risk taking. Interventions targeting IPV need to address sexual risk taking as it heightens vulnerability to violence. PMID:26599394

Etiological Risk Factors for Sibling Incest: Data From an Anonymous Computer-Assisted Self-Interview.

PubMed

Griffee, Karen; Swindell, Sam; O'Keefe, Stephen L; Stroebel, Sandra S; Beard, Keith W; Kuo, Shih-Ya; Stroupe, Walter

2016-10-01

Retrospective data from 1,821 women and 1,064 men with one or more siblings, provided anonymously using a computer-assisted self-interview, were used to identify risk factors for sibling incest (SI); 137 were participants in SI. In order of decreasing predictive power, the risk factors identified by the multiple logistic regression analysis included ever having shared a bed for sleeping with a sibling, parent-child incest (PCI), family nudity, low levels of maternal affection, and ever having shared a tub bath with a sibling. The results were consistent with the idea that SI in many families was the cumulative result of four types of parental behaviors: (a) factors that lower external barriers to sexual behavior (e.g., permitting co-sleeping or co-bathing of sibling dyads), (b) factors that encourage nudity of children within the nuclear family and permit children to see the parent's genitals, (c) factors that lead to the siblings relying on one another for affection (e.g., diminished maternal affection), and (d) factors that eroticize young children (e.g., child sexual abuse [CSA] by a parent). Thirty-eight of the 137 SI participants were participants in coerced sibling incest (CSI). In order of decreasing predictive power, risk factors for CSI identified by multiple logistic regression analysis included ever having shared a bed for sleeping with a brother, PCI, witnessing parental physical fighting, and family nudity. SI was more likely to have been reported as CSI if the sibling had touched the reporting sibling's genitals, and less likely to have been reported as CSI if the siblings had shared a bed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Coping Power Dissemination Study: Intervention and Special Education Effects on Academic Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lochman, John E.; Boxmeyer, Caroline L.; Powell, Nicole P.; Qu, Lixin; Wells, Karen; Windle, Michael

2012-01-01

This study examines whether a school-based preventive intervention for children with aggressive behavior affects children's academic outcomes when it is implemented by school counselors in a dissemination field trial. The Coping Power program targets empirical risk factors for aggressive behavior and focuses primarily on teaching social and…

Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Community, environmental, and occupational health risks associated with fossil fuel energy production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Mark A.

Short-term and long-term health risks associated with fossil fuel power production can be grouped into three broad categories: risks to the surrounding community, the natural environment and to plant workers. The results of three studies examining the primary short-term or long-term impacts of fossil fuel power plants are presented within this dissertation. The first study estimates the plausible community health effects associated with peak SO2 emissions from three coal-fired power plants in the Baltimore, Maryland area. Concentrations from mobile and stationary air monitoring were compared to human clinical studies that demonstrated respiratory morbidity. Results indicate that exposure concentrations are below levels associated with respiratory symptoms. A single measurement at one monitoring site, however, may indicate risk of asymptomatic lung function decrement for SO2-sensitive asthmatics. The second study estimates the relationship between operational, environmental and temporal factors at a Texas coastal power plant and fish and shellfish impingement. Impingement is a long-term risk to fish populations near power plants. When large quantities of water are withdrawn from water bodies for cooling, fish and shellfish may be harmed if impinged against screens intended to remove debris. In this study, impingement of fish and shellfish was best explained by dissolved oxygen concentration, sampling month and sampling time. When examined separately, temperature and sampling month were most important in explaining fish impingement, while for shellfish, sampling month and sampling time were most important. Operational factors were not significant predictors of impingement. The third study examines whether the number of worker similar exposure groups classified using observation methods was the same as groups classified using personal exposure monitoring. Using observational techniques and personal monitoring, power plant workers were grouped according to exposure similarity for respirable silica, respirable particulates, total dust, chromium and arsenic. For respirable particulates, the number of groups estimated using observational techniques is similar to the number estimated using personal monitoring. For respirable silica, total dust, and arsenic, observational techniques indicated more groups than indicated using personal monitoring. No significant exposure differences to chromium were found. Except for respirable silica, the number of similarly exposed groups among power plants is comparable.

Does vitamin D deficiency contribute to erectile dysfunction?

PubMed Central

Sorenson, Marc; Grant, William B.

2012-01-01

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a multifactorial disease, and its causes can be neurogenic, psychogenic, hormonal and vascular. ED is often an important indicator of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and a powerful early marker for asymptomatic CVD. Erection is a vascular event, and ED is often a vascular disease caused by endothelial damage and subsequent inhibition of vasodilation. We show here that risk factors associated with a higher CVD risk also associate with a higher ED risk. Such factors include diabetes mellitus, hypertension, arterial calcification and Inflammation in the vascular endothelium. Vitamin D deficiency is one of several dynamics that associates with increased CVD risk, but to our knowledge, it has not been studied as a possible contributor to ED. Here we examine research linking ED and CVD and discuss how vitamin D influences CVD and its classic risk factors—factors that also associate to increased ED risk. We also summarize research indicating that vitamin D associates with reduced risk of several nonvascular contributing factors for ED. We conclude that VDD contributes to ED. This hypothesis should be tested through observational and intervention studies. PMID:22928068

[Risk factors for Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections, resistant to carbapenem].

PubMed

Ghibu, Laura; Miftode, Egidia; Teodor, Andra; Bejan, Codrina; Dorobăţ, Carmen Mihaela

2010-01-01

Since their introduction in clinical practice,carbapenems have been among the most powerful antibiotics for treating serious infections cased by Gram-negative nosocomial pathogens, including Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The emergence of betalactamases with carbapenem-hydrolyzing activity is of major clinical concern. Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a leading cause of nosocomial infection. Risk factors for colonization with carbapenems-resistant Pseudomonas in hospital are: history of P. aeruginosa infection or colonization within the previous year, (length of hospital stay, being bedridden or in the ICU, mechanical ventilation, malignant disease, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have all been identified as independent risk factors for MDR P. aeruginosa infection. Long-term-care facilities are also reservoirs of resistant bacteria. Risk factors for colonization of LTCF residents with resistant bacteria included age > 86 years, antibiotic treatment in the previous 3 months, indwelling devices, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, physical disability, and the particular LTCF unit.

Neonatal antecedents for cerebral palsy in extremely preterm babies and interaction with maternal factors.

PubMed

Tran, Uyen; Gray, Peter H; O'Callaghan, Michael J

2005-06-01

Preterm delivery is associated with an increased risk of cerebral palsy (CP). The greatest risk is for infants born <28 weeks' gestation. To identify significant neonatal risk factors for CP and explore the interactions between antenatal and neonatal risk factors, among extremely preterm infants of 27 weeks' gestation or less. Nested case control design. Infants born between 1989 and 1996, at 24-27 weeks' gestation, were evaluated: 30 with CP at 2 years corrected age and 120 control infants matched for gestation age. Neonatal variables were compared using matched analyses with the interaction between antenatal and neonatal factors being examined using logistic regression analyses. Risk factors for CP on matched analyses included patent ductus arteriosus requiring surgical ligation, peri-intraventricular haemorrhage, moderate to severe ventricular dilatation, periventricular leukomalacia (PVL) and need for home oxygen. Independent neonatal predictors were ventricular dilatation (OR 7.3; 95% CI 1.6, 32.3), PVL (OR 29.8; 95% CI 5.6, 159.1) and home oxygen use (OR 3.4; 95% CI 1.2, 9.4). No interaction terms in the logistic models were significant between the previously identified pregnancy risk factors of absence of antenatal steroids and intrauterine growth restriction and the neonatal risk factors. PVL is the most powerful independent predictor of CP in extremely preterm infants of 27 weeks' gestation or less and appears to be uninfluenced by antenatal factors.

Cardiovascular safety of biologic therapies for the treatment of RA.

PubMed

Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Furer, Victoria; Farkouh, Michael E

2011-11-15

Cardiovascular disease represents a major source of extra-articular comorbidity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A combination of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and RA-related factors accounts for the excess risk in RA. Among RA-related factors, chronic systemic inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis and progression of atherosclerosis. A growing body of evidence--mainly derived from observational databases and registries--suggests that specific RA therapies, including methotrexate and anti-TNF biologic agents, can reduce the risk of future cardiovascular events in patients with RA. The cardiovascular profile of other biologic therapies for the treatment of RA has not been adequately studied, including of investigational drugs that improve systemic inflammation but alter traditional cardiovascular risk factors. In the absence of large clinical trials adequately powered to detect differences in cardiovascular events between biologic drugs in RA, deriving firm conclusions on cardiovascular safety is challenging. Nevertheless, observational research using large registries has emerged as a promising approach to study the cardiovascular risk of emerging RA biologic therapies.

[Offshore substation workers' exposure to harmful factors - Actions minimizing risk of hazards].

PubMed

Piotrowski, Paweł Janusz; Robak, Sylwester; Polewaczyk, Mateusz Maksymilian; Raczkowski, Robert

2016-01-01

The current development of electric power industry in Poland, especially in the field of renewable energy sources, including wind power, brings about the need to introduce legislation on new work environment. The development of occupational safety and health (OSH) regulations that must be met by new workplaces, such as offshore substations becomes necessary in view of the construction of modern offshore wind power plants - offshore wind farms. Staying on offshore substation is associated with an increased exposure to harmful health factors: physical, chemical, biological and psychophysical. The main sources of health risks on offshore substations are: temperature, electromagnetic field, noise from operating wind turbines, direct and alternating current, chemicals, Legionella bacteria and social isolation of people. The aim of this article is to draw attention to the problem of offshore substation workers' exposure to harmful factors and to present methods of preventing and reducing the risk-related adverse health effects. In this paper, there are identified and described risks occurring on offshore substations (fire, explosion, lightning, accidents at work). Some examples of the means and the methods for reducing the negative impact of exposure on the human health are presented and discussed. The article also highlights the need to develop appropriate laws and health and safety regulations concerning the new working environment at the offshore substations. The review of researches and international standards shows that some of them can be introduced into the Polish labor market. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

What girls won't do for love: human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted infections risk among young African-American women driven by a relationship imperative.

PubMed

Raiford, Jerris L; Seth, Puja; DiClemente, Ralph J

2013-05-01

Rates of Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) continue to increase among African-American youth. Adolescents who have a stronger identity in relation to others (relational identity) rather than to themselves (self-identity) may view intimate relationships as imperative to a positive self-concept, which may lead to risky sexual behavior and abuse. Therefore, the present study assessed the associations among a relationship imperative and HIV/STI-related risk factors and behaviors. Participants were 715 African-American adolescent females, aged 15 to 21 years. They completed measures that assessed how important a relationship was to them and HIV-related risk factors and behaviors. Participants also provided vaginal swab specimens for STI testing. Multivariate logistic regression analyses, controlling for covariates, were conducted. Females who endorsed a relationship imperative (29%), compared to those who did not, were more likely to report: unprotected sex, less power in their relationships, perceived inability to refuse sex, anal sex, sex while their partner was high on alcohol/drugs, and partner abuse. Furthermore, participants with less power, recent partner abuse, and a perceived ability to refuse sex were more likely to test STI positive. These results indicate that if African-American adolescent females believe a relationship is imperative, they are more likely to engage in riskier sexual behaviors. Additionally, less perceived power and partner abuse increases their risk for STIs. HIV/STI prevention programs should target males and females and address healthy relationships, sense of self-worth, self-esteem and the gender power imbalance that may persist in the community along with HIV/STI risk. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Early Patterns of Self-Regulation as Risk and Promotive Factors in Development: A Longitudinal Study from Childhood to Adulthood in a High-Risk Sample

PubMed Central

Causadias, José M.; Salvatore, Jessica E.; Sroufe, L. Alan

2012-01-01

The present study examines two childhood markers of self-regulation, ego-control and ego-resiliency, as promotive factors for the development of global adjustment and as risk factors for the development of internalizing and externalizing behavior problems in a high-risk sample. Teachers and observers rated ego-control and ego-resiliency when participants (n = 136) were in preschool and elementary school. Ratings showed evidence for convergent and discriminant validity and stability over time. Ego-resiliency, but not ego-control, emerged as powerful predictor of adaptive functioning at age 19 and 26, as well as internalizing and externalizing problems at 16, 23, 26, and 32 years. We interpret these findings as evidence that flexibility and adaptability -measured with ego-resiliency- may reduce risk and promote successful adaptation in low-SES environments. PMID:23155299

Environmental risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis among cattle in high-risk areas

PubMed Central

Winkler, B.; Mathews, F.

2015-01-01

Our research shows that environmental features are important predictors of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British cattle herds in high-prevalence regions. Data from 503 case and 808 control farms included in the randomized badger culling trial (RBCT) were analysed. bTB risk increased in larger herds and on farms with greater areas of maize, deciduous woodland and marsh, whereas a higher percentage of boundaries composed of hedgerows decreased the risk. The model was tested on another case–control study outside RBCT areas, and here it had a much smaller predictive power. This suggests that different infection dynamics operate outside high-risk areas, although it is possible that unknown confounding factors may also have played a role. PMID:26559511

"Amar te Duele" ("love hurts"): sexual relationship power, intimate partner violence, depression symptoms and HIV risk among female sex workers who use drugs and their non-commercial, steady partners in Mexico.

PubMed

Ulibarri, Monica D; Roesch, Scott; Rangel, M Gudelia; Staines, Hugo; Amaro, Hortensia; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2015-01-01

A significant body of research among female sex workers (FSWs) has focused on individual-level HIV risk factors. Comparatively little is known about their non-commercial, steady partners who may heavily influence their behavior and HIV risk. This cross-sectional study of 214 FSWs who use drugs and their male steady partners aged ≥18 in two Mexico-U.S. border cities utilized a path-analytic model for dyadic data based upon the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model to examine relationships between sexual relationship power, intimate partner violence (IPV), depression symptoms, and unprotected sex. FSWs' relationship power, IPV perpetration and victimization were significantly associated with unprotected sex within the relationship. Male partners' depression symptoms were significantly associated with unprotected sex within the relationship. Future HIV prevention interventions for FSWs and their male partners should address issues of sexual relationship power, IPV, and mental health both individually and in the context of their relationship.

A Systematic Review of the Association Between Physical Fitness and Musculoskeletal Injury Risk: Part 3 - Flexibility, Power, Speed, Balance, and Agility.

PubMed

de la Motte, Sarah J; Lisman, Peter; Gribbin, Timothy C; Murphy, Kaitlin; Deuster, Patricia A

2017-12-11

We performed a systematic review and evaluation of the existing scientific literature on the association between flexibility, power, speed, balance, and agility, and musculoskeletal injury (MSK-I) risk in military and civilian populations. MEDLINE, EBSCO, EMBASE, and the Defense Technical Information Center were searched for original studies published from 1970 through 2015 that examined associations between these physical fitness measures (flexibility, power, speed, balance, and agility) and MSK-I. Methodological quality and strength of the evidence were determined following criteria adapted from previously published systematic reviews. Twenty-seven of 4,229 citations met our inclusion criteria. Primary findings indicate there is (a) moderate evidence that hamstring flexibility, as measured by performance on a sit-and-reach test or active straight-leg raise test assessed with goniometry, and ankle flexibility, assessed with goniometry, are associated with MSK-I risk; (b) moderate evidence that lower body power, as measured by performance on a standing broad jump or vertical jump with no countermovement, is associated with MSK-I risk; (c) moderate evidence that slow sprint speed is associated with MSK-I risk; (d) moderate evidence that poor performance on a single-leg balance test is associated with increased risk for ankle sprain; and (e) insufficient evidence that agility is associated with MSK-I risk. Several measures of flexibility, power, speed, and balance are risk factors for training-related MSK-I in military and civilian athletic populations. Importantly, these findings can be useful for military, first responder, and athletic communities who are seeking evidence-based metrics for assessing or stratifying populations for risk of MSK-I.

Peace Power for Adolescents: Strategies for a Culture of Nonviolence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mattaini, Mark A.

Recent school shootings are only one symptom of a greater problem--a toxic social environment that breeds isolation and rage among children. This book looks at the wide range of risk factors and indicators for violence and translates the findings into an effective prevention and intervention system. The Peace Power strategy is based on four core…

Adverse life events as risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in a 7-year follow-up of a population-based child cohort.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Cathrine Skovmand; Nielsen, Louise Gramstrup; Petersen, Dorthe Janne; Christiansen, Erik; Bilenberg, Niels

2014-04-01

The aim of the study was to identify risk factors for significant changes in emotional and behavioural problem load in a community-based cohort of Danish children aged 9-16 years, the risk factors being seven parental and two child-related adverse life events. Data on emotional and behavioural problems was obtained from parents filling in the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) when the child was 8-9 and again when 15 years old. Data on risk factors was drawn from Danish registers. Analysis used was logistic regression for crude and adjusted change. Parental divorce significantly raised the odds ratio of an increase in emotional and behavioural problems; furthermore, the risk of deterioration in problem behaviour rose significantly with increasing number of adverse life events. By dividing the children into four groups based on the pathway in problem load (increasers, decreasers, high persisters and low persisters), we found that children with a consistently high level of behavioural problems also had the highest number of adverse life events compared with any other group. Family break-up was found to be a significant risk factor. This supports findings in previous studies. The fact that no other risk factor proved to be of significance might be due to lack of power in the study. Children experiencing high levels of adverse life events are at high risk of chronic problem behaviour. Thus these risk factors should be assessed in daily clinical practice.

Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China.

PubMed

Xu, Chengdong; Li, Yuanyuan; Wang, Jinfeng; Xiao, Gexin

2017-09-25

Bacillary dysentery is the third leading notifiable disease and remains a major public health concern in China. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban region is the biggest urban agglomeration in northern China, and it is one of the areas in the country that is most heavily infected with bacillary dysentery. The objective of the study was to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and to determine any contributory risk factors on the bacillary dysentery. Bacillary dysentery case data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei were employed. GeoDetector method was used to determine the impact of potential risk factors, and to identify regions and seasons at high risk of the disease. There were 36,472 cases of bacillary dysentery in 2012 in the study region. The incidence of bacillary dysentery varies widely amongst different age groups; the higher incidence of bacillary dysentery mainly occurs in the population under the age of five. Bacillary dysentery presents apparent seasonal variance, with the highest incidence occurring from June to September. In terms of the potential meteorological risk factors, mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, mean wind speed and sunshine hours explain the time variant of bacillary dysentery at 83%, 31%, 25%, 17% and 13%, respectively. The interactive effect between temperature and humidity has an explanatory power of 87%, indicating that a hot and humid environment is more likely to lead to the occurrence of bacillary dysentery. Socio-economic factors affect the spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery. The top four factors are age group, per capita GDP, population density and rural population proportion, and their determinant powers are 61%, 27%, 25% and 21%, respectively. The interactive effect between age group and the other factors accounts for more than 60% of bacillary dysentery transmission. Bacillary dysentery poses a higher risk in the population of children. It is affected by meteorological and socio-economic factors, and it is necessary to pay more attention to the meteorological period and situation, particularly in period with high temperature and humidity, as well as places in urban areas with high population density, and a low proportion of rural population.

Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft.

PubMed

Boyd, Douglas D; Stolzer, Alan

2016-01-01

General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501lb) powered by 1-2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. The "Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed" was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p<0.001) in the "non-adherence to V Speeds" sub-category. For accidents grouped in the "Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure" the "inadequate weather planning" sub-category accounted (p=0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The "Violation FARs/AIM Deviation" category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with "Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach" representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes. In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resting Heart Rate Is Not a Good Predictor of a Clustered Cardiovascular Risk Score in Adolescents: The HELENA Study

PubMed Central

de Moraes, Augusto César Ferreira; Cassenote, Alex Jones Flores; Leclercq, Catherine; Dallongeville, Jean; Androutsos, Odysseas; Török, Katalin; González-Gross, Marcela; Widhalm, Kurt; Kafatos, Anthony; Carvalho, Heráclito Barbosa; Moreno, Luis Alberto

2015-01-01

Background Resting heart rate (RHR) reflects sympathetic nerve activity a significant association between RHR and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality has been reported in some epidemiologic studies. Methods To analyze the predictive power and accuracy of RHR as a screening measure for individual and clustered cardiovascular risk in adolescents. The study comprised 769 European adolescents (376 boys) participating in the HELENA cross-sectional study (2006–2008) were included in this study. Measurements on systolic blood pressure, HOMA index, triglycerides, TC/HDL-c, VO2máx and the sum of four skinfolds were obtained, and a clustered cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk index was computed. The receiver operating characteristics curve was applied to calculate the power and accuracy of RHR to predict individual and clustered CVD risk factors. Results RHR showed low accuracy for screening CVD risk factors in both sexes (range 38.5%–54.4% in boys and 45.5%–54.3% in girls). Low specificity’s (15.6%–19.7% in boys; 18.1%–20.0% in girls) were also found. Nevertheless, the sensitivities were moderate-to-high (61.4%–89.1% in boys; 72.9%–90.3% in girls). Conclusion RHR is a poor predictor of individual CVD risk factors and of clustered CVD and the estimates based on RHR are not accurate. The use of RHR as an indicator of CVD risk in adolescents may produce a biased screening of cardiovascular health in both sexes. PMID:26010248

Informative priors on fetal fraction increase power of the noninvasive prenatal screen.

PubMed

Xu, Hanli; Wang, Shaowei; Ma, Lin-Lin; Huang, Shuai; Liang, Lin; Liu, Qian; Liu, Yang-Yang; Liu, Ke-Di; Tan, Ze-Min; Ban, Hao; Guan, Yongtao; Lu, Zuhong

2017-11-09

PurposeNoninvasive prenatal screening (NIPS) sequences a mixture of the maternal and fetal cell-free DNA. Fetal trisomy can be detected by examining chromosomal dosages estimated from sequencing reads. The traditional method uses the Z-test, which compares a subject against a set of euploid controls, where the information of fetal fraction is not fully utilized. Here we present a Bayesian method that leverages informative priors on the fetal fraction.MethodOur Bayesian method combines the Z-test likelihood and informative priors of the fetal fraction, which are learned from the sex chromosomes, to compute Bayes factors. Bayesian framework can account for nongenetic risk factors through the prior odds, and our method can report individual positive/negative predictive values.ResultsOur Bayesian method has more power than the Z-test method. We analyzed 3,405 NIPS samples and spotted at least 9 (of 51) possible Z-test false positives.ConclusionBayesian NIPS is more powerful than the Z-test method, is able to account for nongenetic risk factors through prior odds, and can report individual positive/negative predictive values.Genetics in Medicine advance online publication, 9 November 2017; doi:10.1038/gim.2017.186.

Distance to High-Voltage Power Lines and Risk of Childhood Leukemia – an Analysis of Confounding by and Interaction with Other Potential Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Pedersen, Camilla; Bräuner, Elvira V.; Rod, Naja H.; Albieri, Vanna; Andersen, Claus E.; Ulbak, Kaare; Hertel, Ole; Johansen, Christoffer; Schüz, Joachim; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

2014-01-01

We investigated whether there is an interaction between distance from residence at birth to nearest power line and domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution, respectively, in relation to childhood leukemia risk. Further, we investigated whether adjusting for potential confounders alters the association between distance to nearest power line and childhood leukemia. We included 1024 cases aged <15, diagnosed with leukemia during 1968–1991, from the Danish Cancer Registry and 2048 controls randomly selected from the Danish childhood population and individually matched by gender and year of birth. We used geographical information systems to determine the distance between residence at birth and the nearest 132–400 kV overhead power line. Concentrations of domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution (NOx at the front door) were estimated using validated models. We found a statistically significant interaction between distance to nearest power line and domestic radon regarding risk of childhood leukemia (p = 0.01) when using the median radon level as cut-off point but not when using the 75th percentile (p = 0.90). We found no evidence of an interaction between distance to nearest power line and traffic-related air pollution (p = 0.73). We found almost no change in the estimated association between distance to power line and risk of childhood leukemia when adjusting for socioeconomic status of the municipality, urbanization, maternal age, birth order, domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution. The statistically significant interaction between distance to nearest power line and domestic radon was based on few exposed cases and controls and sensitive to the choice of exposure categorization and might, therefore, be due to chance. PMID:25259740

Distance to high-voltage power lines and risk of childhood leukemia--an analysis of confounding by and interaction with other potential risk factors.

PubMed

Pedersen, Camilla; Bräuner, Elvira V; Rod, Naja H; Albieri, Vanna; Andersen, Claus E; Ulbak, Kaare; Hertel, Ole; Johansen, Christoffer; Schüz, Joachim; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

2014-01-01

We investigated whether there is an interaction between distance from residence at birth to nearest power line and domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution, respectively, in relation to childhood leukemia risk. Further, we investigated whether adjusting for potential confounders alters the association between distance to nearest power line and childhood leukemia. We included 1024 cases aged <15, diagnosed with leukemia during 1968-1991, from the Danish Cancer Registry and 2048 controls randomly selected from the Danish childhood population and individually matched by gender and year of birth. We used geographical information systems to determine the distance between residence at birth and the nearest 132-400 kV overhead power line. Concentrations of domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution (NOx at the front door) were estimated using validated models. We found a statistically significant interaction between distance to nearest power line and domestic radon regarding risk of childhood leukemia (p = 0.01) when using the median radon level as cut-off point but not when using the 75th percentile (p = 0.90). We found no evidence of an interaction between distance to nearest power line and traffic-related air pollution (p = 0.73). We found almost no change in the estimated association between distance to power line and risk of childhood leukemia when adjusting for socioeconomic status of the municipality, urbanization, maternal age, birth order, domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution. The statistically significant interaction between distance to nearest power line and domestic radon was based on few exposed cases and controls and sensitive to the choice of exposure categorization and might, therefore, be due to chance.

Secondary traumatic stress among domestic violence advocates: workplace risk and protective factors.

PubMed

Slattery, Suzanne M; Goodman, Lisa A

2009-11-01

This study identified workplace factors associated with secondary traumatic stress (STS) in a sample of 148 domestic violence advocates working in diverse settings. Findings indicate that coworker support and quality clinical supervision are critical to emotional well-being and that an environment in which there is shared power-that is, respect for diversity, mutuality, and consensual decision making-provides better protection for advocates than more traditional, hierarchical organizational models. Furthermore, shared power emerged as the only workplace variable to significantly predict STS above and beyond individual factors. The discussion includes implications for practice and policy as well as directions for future research.

Factors associated with diabetes mellitus prediction among pregnant Arab subjects with gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Aljohani, Naji; Al Serehi, Amal; Ahmed, Amjad M; Buhary, Badr Aldin M; Alzahrani, Saad; At-Taras, Eeman; Almujally, Najla; Alsharqi, Maha; Alqahtani, Mohammed; Almalki, Mussa

2015-01-01

There is scarcity of available information on the possible significant risk factors related to diabetes mellitus (DM) prediction among expectant Saudi mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The present study is the first to identify such risk factors in the Arab cohort. A total of 300 pregnant subjects (mean age 33.45 ± 6.5 years) were randomly selected from all the deliveries registered at the Obstetrics Department of King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh Saudi Arabia from April 2011 to March 2013. Demographic and baseline glycemic information were collected. A total of 7 highly significant and independent risk factors were identified: age, obesity, and family history of DM, GDM < 20 weeks, macrosomia, insulin therapy and recurrent GDM. Among these factors, subjects who had insulin therapy use are 5 times more likely to develop DMT2 (p-value 3.94 × 10(-14)) followed by recurrent GDM [odds-ratio 4.69 (Confidence Interval 2.34-4.84); P = 1.24 × 10(-13)). The identification of the risk factors mentioned with their respective predictive powers in the detection of DMT2 needs to be taken seriously in the post-partum assessment of Saudi pregnant patients at highest risk.

Money and age in schools: Bullying and power imbalances.

PubMed

Chaux, Enrique; Castellanos, Melisa

2015-05-01

School bullying continues to be a serious problem around the world. Thus, it seems crucial to clearly identify the risk factors associated with being a victim or a bully. The current study focused in particular on the role that age and socio-economic differences between classmates could play on bullying. Logistic and multilevel analyses were conducted using data from 53,316 5th and 9th grade students from a representative sample of public and private Colombian schools. Higher age and better family socio-economic conditions than classmates were risk factors associated with being a bully, while younger age and poorer socio-economic conditions than classmates were associated with being a victim of bullying. Coming from authoritarian families or violent neighborhoods, and supporting beliefs legitimizing aggression, were also associated with bullying and victimization. Empathy was negatively associated with being a bully, and in some cases positively associated with being a victim. The results highlight the need to take into account possible sources of power imbalances, such as age and socio-economic differences among classmates, when seeking to prevent bullying. In particular, interventions focused on peer group dynamics might contribute to avoid power imbalances or to prevent power imbalances from becoming power abuse. Aggr. Behav. 41:280-293, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An analysis of key environmental and social risks in the development of concentrated solar power projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otieno, George A.; Loosen, Alexander E.

2016-05-01

Concentrated Solar Power projects have impacts on local environment and social conditions. This research set out to investigate the environmental and social risks in the development of such projects and rank these risks from highest to lowest. The risks were analysed for parabolic trough and tower technologies only. A literature review was undertaken, identifying seventeen risks that were then proposed to six CSP experts for scoring. The risks were scored based of five factors on a five tier scale. The scores from the experts were compiled to develop an overall rank of the identified risks. The risk of disruption of local water resources was found to represent the highest risk before and after mitigation with a score of moderate-high and moderate respectively. This score is linked to the importance of water in water scarce regions typified by the best regions for CSP. The risks to avian species, to worker health and safety, due to noise on the environment, to visual and recreational resources completed the top five risks after mitigation.

Is physical activity, practiced as recommended for health benefit, a risk factor for osteoarthritis?

PubMed

Lefèvre-Colau, Marie-Martine; Nguyen, Christelle; Haddad, Rebecca; Delamarche, Paul; Paris, Guillaume; Palazzo, Clémence; Poiraudeau, Serge; Rannou, François; Roren, Alexandra

2016-06-01

In this critical narrative review, we examine the role of physical activity (PA), recreational and elite sports in the development of knee/hip osteoarthritis (OA), taking into account the role of injury in this relationship. The process of article selection was unsystematic. Articles were selected on the basis of the authors' expertise, self-knowledge, and reflective practice. In the general adult population, self-reported diagnosis of knee/hip OA was not associated with low, moderate or high levels of PA. For studies using radiographic knee/hip OA as a primary outcome, the incidence of asymptomatic radiographic OA was higher for subjects with the highest quartile of usual PA than the least active subjects. The risk of incident radiographic knee/hip OA features was increased for subjects with a history of regular sports participation (for osteophyte formation but not joint space narrowing). This risk depended on the type of sport (team and power sports but not endurance and running), and certain conditions (high level of practice) were closely related to the risk of injury. The prevalence of radiographic OA was significantly higher, especially the presence of osteophytes, in former elite athletes than controls. The risk of OA was higher with participation in mixed sports, especially soccer or power sports, than endurance sport. However, the prevalence of clinical OA between former elite athletes and controls was similar, with less hip/knee disability in former athletes. Moderate daily recreational or sport activities, whatever the type of sport, are not a consistent risk factor for clinical or radiographic knee/hip OA. Risk of injury in different sports may be the key factor to understanding the risk of OA related to sport. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Functional Logistic Regression Approach to Detecting Gene by Longitudinal Environmental Exposure Interaction in a Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Wei, Peng; Tang, Hongwei; Li, Donghui

2014-01-01

Most complex human diseases are likely the consequence of the joint actions of genetic and environmental factors. Identification of gene-environment (GxE) interactions not only contributes to a better understanding of the disease mechanisms, but also improves disease risk prediction and targeted intervention. In contrast to the large number of genetic susceptibility loci discovered by genome-wide association studies, there have been very few successes in identifying GxE interactions which may be partly due to limited statistical power and inaccurately measured exposures. While existing statistical methods only consider interactions between genes and static environmental exposures, many environmental/lifestyle factors, such as air pollution and diet, change over time, and cannot be accurately captured at one measurement time point or by simply categorizing into static exposure categories. There is a dearth of statistical methods for detecting gene by time-varying environmental exposure interactions. Here we propose a powerful functional logistic regression (FLR) approach to model the time-varying effect of longitudinal environmental exposure and its interaction with genetic factors on disease risk. Capitalizing on the powerful functional data analysis framework, our proposed FLR model is capable of accommodating longitudinal exposures measured at irregular time points and contaminated by measurement errors, commonly encountered in observational studies. We use extensive simulations to show that the proposed method can control the Type I error and is more powerful than alternative ad hoc methods. We demonstrate the utility of this new method using data from a case-control study of pancreatic cancer to identify the windows of vulnerability of lifetime body mass index on the risk of pancreatic cancer as well as genes which may modify this association. PMID:25219575

Functional logistic regression approach to detecting gene by longitudinal environmental exposure interaction in a case-control study.

PubMed

Wei, Peng; Tang, Hongwei; Li, Donghui

2014-11-01

Most complex human diseases are likely the consequence of the joint actions of genetic and environmental factors. Identification of gene-environment (G × E) interactions not only contributes to a better understanding of the disease mechanisms, but also improves disease risk prediction and targeted intervention. In contrast to the large number of genetic susceptibility loci discovered by genome-wide association studies, there have been very few successes in identifying G × E interactions, which may be partly due to limited statistical power and inaccurately measured exposures. Although existing statistical methods only consider interactions between genes and static environmental exposures, many environmental/lifestyle factors, such as air pollution and diet, change over time, and cannot be accurately captured at one measurement time point or by simply categorizing into static exposure categories. There is a dearth of statistical methods for detecting gene by time-varying environmental exposure interactions. Here, we propose a powerful functional logistic regression (FLR) approach to model the time-varying effect of longitudinal environmental exposure and its interaction with genetic factors on disease risk. Capitalizing on the powerful functional data analysis framework, our proposed FLR model is capable of accommodating longitudinal exposures measured at irregular time points and contaminated by measurement errors, commonly encountered in observational studies. We use extensive simulations to show that the proposed method can control the Type I error and is more powerful than alternative ad hoc methods. We demonstrate the utility of this new method using data from a case-control study of pancreatic cancer to identify the windows of vulnerability of lifetime body mass index on the risk of pancreatic cancer as well as genes that may modify this association. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (II) Application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

2011-01-01

This paper presents the procedures and results of intensity- and time-based seismic risk assessments of a sample nuclear power plant (NPP) to demonstrate the risk-assessment methodology proposed in its companion paper. The intensity-based assessments include three sets of sensitivity studies to identify the impact of the following factors on the seismic vulnerability of the sample NPP, namely: (1) the description of fragility curves for primary and secondary components of NPPs, (2) the number of simulations of NPP response required for risk assessment, and (3) the correlation in responses between NPP components. The time-based assessment is performed as a series of intensity-based assessments. The studies illustrate the utility of the response-based fragility curves and the inclusion of the correlation in the responses of NPP components directly in the risk computation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Interpreting Space-Mission LET Requirements for SEGR in Power MOSFETs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauenstein, J. M.; Ladbury, R. L.; Batchelor, D. A.; Goldsman, N.; Kim, H. S.; Phan, A. M.

2010-01-01

A Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) simulation-based method is developed to evaluate whether derating of high-energy heavy-ion accelerator test data bounds the risk for single-event gate rupture (SEGR) from much higher energy on-orbit ions for a mission linear energy transfer (LET) requirement. It is shown that a typical derating factor of 0.75 applied to a single-event effect (SEE) response curve defined by high-energy accelerator SEGR test data provides reasonable on-orbit hardness assurance, although in a high-voltage power MOSFET, it did not bound the risk of failure.

Relationship between obesity, ethnicity and risk of late stillbirth: a case control study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In high income countries there has been little improvement in stillbirth rates over the past two decades. Previous studies have indicated an ethnic disparity in the rate of stillbirths. This study aimed to determine whether maternal ethnicity is independently associated with late stillbirth in New Zealand. Methods Cases were women with a singleton, late stillbirth (≥28 weeks' gestation) without congenital abnormality, born between July 2006 and June 2009 in Auckland, New Zealand. Two controls with ongoing pregnancies were randomly selected at the same gestation at which the stillbirth occurred. Women were interviewed in the first few weeks following stillbirth, or at the equivalent gestation for controls. Detailed demographic data were recorded. The study was powered to detect an odds ratio of 2, with a power of 80% at the 5% level of significance, given a prevalence of the risk factor of 20%. A multivariable regression model was developed which adjusted for known risk factors for stillbirth, as well as significant risk factors identified in the current study, and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Results 155/215 (72%) cases and 310/429 (72%) controls consented. Pacific ethnicity, overweight and obesity, grandmultiparity, not being married, not being in paid work, social deprivation, exposure to tobacco smoke and use of recreational drugs were associated with an increased risk of late stillbirth in univariable analysis. Maternal overweight and obesity, nulliparity, grandmultiparity, not being married and not being in paid work were independently associated with late stillbirth in multivariable analysis, whereas Pacific ethnicity was no longer significant (adjusted Odds Ratio 0.99; 0.51-1.91). Conclusions Pacific ethnicity was not found to be an independent risk factor for late stillbirth in this New Zealand study. The disparity in stillbirth rates between Pacific and European women can be attributed to confounding factors such as maternal obesity and high parity. PMID:21226915

Manifold implications of obesity in ischemic heart disease among Japanese patients according to covariance structure analysis: Low reactivity of B-type natriuretic peptide as an intervening risk factor.

PubMed

Tsutsumi, Joshi; Minai, Kosuke; Kawai, Makoto; Ogawa, Kazuo; Inoue, Yasunori; Morimoto, Satoshi; Tanaka, Toshikazu; Nagoshi, Tomohisa; Ogawa, Takayuki; Yoshimura, Michihiro

2017-01-01

Obesity is believed to be one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease in Western countries. However, the effects of obesity should be continuously examined in the Japanese population because the average bodily habitus differs among countries. In this study, we collectively examined the significance of obesity and obesity-triggered risk factors including the low reactivity of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), for ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Japanese patients. The study patients consisted of 1252 subjects (IHD: n = 970; non-IHD: n = 282). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, and the low reactivity of BNP were significant risk factors for IHD, but body mass index (BMI) was not. A theoretical path model was proposed by positioning BMI at the top of the hierarchical model. Exploratory factor analysis revealed that BMI did not play a causative role in IHD (P = NS). BMI was causatively linked to other risk factors (P<0.001 for hypertension; P<0.001 for dyslipidemia; P<0.001 for HbA1c; P<0.001 for LogBNP), and these factors played a causative role in IHD (P<0.001 for hypertension; P<0.001 for dyslipidemia; P<0.001 for HbA1c; P<0.001 for LogBNP). The intrinsic power of the low reactivity of BNP induced by high BMI on the promotion of IHD was fairly potent. This study demonstrated that obesity per se is not a strong risk factor for IHD in Japanese patients. However, several important risk factors triggered by obesity exhibited a causative role for IHD. The low reactivity of BNP is a substantial risk factor for IHD.

A Prospective Examination of Perceived Burdensomeness and Thwarted Belongingness As Risk Factors for Suicide Ideation In Adult Outpatients Receiving Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy.

PubMed

Teismann, Tobias; Glaesmer, Heide; von Brachel, Ruth; Siegmann, Paula; Forkmann, Thomas

2017-10-01

The interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior posits that 2 proximal, causal, and interactive risk factors must be present for someone to desire suicide: perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the predictive power of these 2 risk factors in a prospective study. A total of 231 adult outpatients (age: mean = 38.1, standard deviation = 12.3) undergoing cognitive-behavioral therapy took part in a pretreatment and a midtreatment assessment after the 10th therapy session. Perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and the interaction between these 2 risk factors did not add incremental variance to the prediction of midtreatment suicide ideation after controlling for age, gender, depression, hopelessness, impulsivity, lifetime suicide attempts, and pretreatment suicide ideation. The best predictor of midtreatment suicide ideation was pretreatment suicide ideation. Results offer only limited support to the assumptions of the interpersonal theory of suicide. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lower Jump Power Rather Than Muscle Mass Itself is Associated with Vertebral Fracture in Community-Dwelling Elderly Korean Women.

PubMed

Lee, Eun Young; Lee, Su Jin; Kim, Kyoung Min; Seo, Da Hea; Lee, Seung Won; Choi, Han Sol; Kim, Hyeon Chang; Youm, Yoosik; Kim, Chang Oh; Rhee, Yumie

2017-06-01

Sarcopenia is considered to be a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture, which is a major health problem in elderly women. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association of sarcopenia, with regard to muscle mass and function, with prevalent vertebral fracture in community-dwelling elderly women. We recruited 1281 women aged 64 to 87 years from the Korean Urban Rural Elderly cohort study. Muscle mass and function were measured using bioimpedance analysis and jumping mechanography. Skeletal muscle index (SMI) and jump power were used as an indicator of muscle mass and function, respectively. Among the participants, we observed 282 (18.9%) vertebral fractures and 564 (44.0%) osteoporosis. Although age, body mass index, and prevalence of osteoporosis increased as both SMI and jump power decreased, prevalence of vertebral fracture increased only when jump power decreased. In univariate analysis, compared with the highest quartile of jump power, the lowest quartile had a significant odds ratio of 2.80 (95% CI 1.79-4.36) for vertebral fracture. This association between jump power and vertebral fracture remained significant, with an odds ratio of 3.04 (95% CI 1.77-5.23), even after adjusting for other risk factors including age, bone mineral density, previous fracture, and cognitive function. In contrast, there was no association between SMI and vertebral fracture. Based on our results, low jump power, but not SMI, is associated with vertebral fracture in community-dwelling elderly Korean women. This finding suggests that jump power may have a more important role than muscle mass itself for osteoporotic fracture.

Cohort Profile: The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium

PubMed Central

Dwyer, Terence; Sun, Cong; Magnussen, Costan G; Raitakari, Olli T; Schork, Nicholas J; Venn, Alison; Burns, Trudy L; Juonala, Markus; Steinberger, Julia; Sinaiko, Alan R; Prineas, Ronald J; Davis, Patricia H; Woo, Jessica G; Morrison, John A; Daniels, Stephen R; Chen, Wei; Srinivasan, Sathanur R; Viikari, Jorma SA; Berenson, Gerald S

2013-01-01

This is a consortium of large children's cohorts that contain measurements of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in childhood and had the ability to follow those cohorts into adulthood. The purpose of this consortium is to enable the pooling of data to increase power, most importantly for the follow-up of CVD events in adulthood. Within the consortium, we hope to be able to obtain data on the independent effects of childhood and early adult levels of CVD risk factors on subsequent CVD occurrence. PMID:22434861

Overweight and pregnancy complications.

PubMed

Abrams, B; Parker, J

1988-01-01

The association between increased prepregnancy weight for height and seven pregnancy complications was studied in a multi-racial sample of more than 4100 recent deliveries. Body mass indices were calculated and used to classify women as average weight (90-119 percent of ideal or BMI 19.21-25.60), moderately overweight (120-135 percent ideal or BMI 25.61-28.90), and very overweight (greater than 135 percent ideal or BMI greater than 28.91) prior to pregnancy. Compared to women of average weight for height, very overweight women had a higher risk of diabetes, hypertension, pregnancy-induced hypertension and primary cesarean section delivery. Moderately overweight women were also at higher risk than average for diabetes, pregnancy-induced hypertension and primary cesarean deliveries but the relative risks were of a smaller magnitude than for very overweight women. With women of average prepregnancy body mass as reference, moderately elevated, but not significant relative risks were found for perinatal mortality in the very overweight group, for urinary tract infections in both overweight groups, and a decreased risk for anemia was found in the very overweight group. However, post-hoc power analyses indicated that the number of overweight women in the sample did not allow adequate statistical power to detect these small differences in risk. To overcome limitations associated with low statistical power, the results of three recent studies of these outcomes in very overweight pregnant women were combined and summarized using Mantel-Haenzel techniques. This second, larger analysis suggested that very overweight women are at significantly higher risk for all seven outcomes studied. Summary results for moderately overweight women could not be calculated, since only two of the studies had evaluated moderately overweight women separately. These latter results support other findings that both moderate overweight and very overweight are risk factors during pregnancy, with the highest risk occurring in the heaviest group. Although these results indicate that moderate overweight is a risk factor during pregnancy, additional studies are needed to confirm the impact of being 20-35 percent above ideal weight prior to pregnancy. The results of this analysis also imply that since the baseline incidence of many perinatal complications is low, studies relating overweight and pregnancy complications should include large enough samples of overweight women so that there is adequate statistical power to reliably detect differences in complication rates.

Application of Bayesian networks in a hierarchical structure for environmental risk assessment: a case study of the Gabric Dam, Iran.

PubMed

Malekmohammadi, Bahram; Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Negar

2018-04-13

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a commonly used, effective tool applied to reduce adverse effects of environmental risk factors. In this study, ERA was investigated using the Bayesian network (BN) model based on a hierarchical structure of variables in an influence diagram (ID). ID facilitated ranking of the different alternatives under uncertainty that were then used to evaluate comparisons of the different risk factors. BN was used to present a new model for ERA applicable to complicated development projects such as dam construction. The methodology was applied to the Gabric Dam, in southern Iran. The main environmental risk factors in the region, presented by the Gabric Dam, were identified based on the Delphi technique and specific features of the study area. These included the following: flood, water pollution, earthquake, changes in land use, erosion and sedimentation, effects on the population, and ecosensitivity. These risk factors were then categorized based on results from the output decision node of the BN, including expected utility values for risk factors in the decision node. ERA was performed for the Gabric Dam using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to compare results of BN modeling with those of conventional methods. Results determined that a BN-based hierarchical structure to ERA present acceptable and reasonable risk assessment prioritization in proposing suitable solutions to reduce environmental risks and can be used as a powerful decision support system for evaluating environmental risks.

“Amar te Duele” (“Love Hurts”): Sexual relationship power, intimate partner violence, depression symptoms and HIV risk among female sex workers who use drugs and their non-commercial, steady partners in Mexico

PubMed Central

Ulibarri, Monica D.; Roesch, Scott; Rangel, M. Gudelia; Staines, Hugo; Amaro, Hortensia; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

2014-01-01

A significant body of research among female sex workers (FSWs) has focused on individual-level HIV risk factors. Comparatively little is known about their non-commercial, steady partners who may heavily influence their behavior and HIV risk. This cross-sectional study of 214 FSWs who use drugs and their male steady partners aged ≥18 in two Mexico-U.S. border cities utilized a path-analytic model for dyadic data based upon the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model to examine relationships between sexual relationship power, intimate partner violence (IPV), depression symptoms, and unprotected sex. FSWs’ relationship power, IPV perpetration and victimization were significantly associated with unprotected sex within the relationship. Male partners’ depression symptoms were significantly associated with unprotected sex within the relationship. Future HIV prevention interventions for FSWs and their male partners should address issues of sexual relationship power, IPV, and mental health both individually and in the context of their relationship. PMID:24743959

The Power of Protection: A Population-Based Comparison of Native and Non-Native Youth Suicide Attempters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackin, Juliette; Perkins, Tamara; Furrer, Carrie

2012-01-01

This study provides actionable information about intervening with American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) youth to prevent suicide. Statewide school survey data were used to model the impact of risk and protective factors on self-reported suicide attempts (both AI/AN and non-AI/AN). The cumulative risk and protective model worked similarly for both…

Legal Factors Related to Access to Campuses of Public Colleges and Universities: An Occasional Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lytle, Michael A.

Legal methods and related case law that can be used by public higher education administrators to deal with intrusions by outsiders onto the campus are examined. The following legal factors related to control of campus access are addressed: risk management, police power, general trespass, school related trespass/loitering statutes, First and…

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

Risk of suicide in male prison inmates.

PubMed

Saavedra, Javier; López, Marcelino

2015-01-01

Many studies have demonstrated that the risk of suicide in prison is higher than in the general population. This study has two aims. First, to explore the risk of suicide in men sentenced in Andalusian prisons. And second, to study the sociodemographic, criminal and, especially, psychopathological factors associated with this risk. An assessment was made of 472 sentenced inmates in two Andalusian prisons, and included a sociodemographic interview, the IPDE personality disorders questionnaire, the SCID-I diagnostic interview (DSMIV), and the Plutchick suicide risk questionnaire. The interviewers were experienced clinical psychologists with training in prison environments. Adjusted ORs were calculated using a logistic regression. A risk of committing suicide was detected in 33.5% of the sample. The diagnoses (lifetime prevalence) of affective disorder (adjusted OR 3329), substance dependence disorders (adjusted OR 2733), personality disorders (adjusted OR 3115) and anxiety disorder (adjusted OR 1650), as well as a family psychiatric history (adjusted OR 1650), were the predictors that remained as risk factors after the regression analysis. No socio-demographic risk factor was significant in the regression analysis. The psychopathological variables are essential and the most powerful factors to explain suicide risk in prisons. A correct and systematic diagnosis, and an appropriate treatment by mental health professionals during the imprisonment are essential to prevent the risk of suicide. Copyright © 2013 SEP y SEPB. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coalmore » electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.« less

Sexual and Alcohol Risk Behaviours of Immigrant Latino Men in the South-eastern USA

PubMed Central

RHODES, SCOTT D.; HERGENRATHER, KENNETH C.; GRIFFITH, DEREK; YEE, LELAND J.; ZOMETA, CARLOS S.; MONTAÑO, JAIME; VISSMAN, ARRON T.

2014-01-01

Little is known about the intersections of immigration, masculinity, and sexual risk behaviours among recently arrived Latino men in the United States (USA). Nine immigrant Latino men from three urban housing communities in the South-eastern USA used photovoice to identify and explore their lived experiences. From the participants’ photographs and words, thirteen themes emerged within four domains. The immigration experience and sociocultural norms and expectations of masculinity were factors identified decreasing Latino men’s sense of power and increasing stress, which lead to sexual risk. Latino community strengths and general community strengths were factors that participants identified as promoting health and preventing risk. These themes influenced the development of a conceptual model to explain risk among immigrant Latino men. This model requires further exploration and may prove useful in intervention development. PMID:19234948

The influence of the built environment on adverse birth outcomes.

PubMed

Woods, N; Gilliland, J; Seabrook, J A

2017-01-01

Adverse birth outcomes are associated with neonatal morbidity and mortality, and higher risk for coronary heart disease, non-insulin-dependent diabetes and hypertension in adulthood. Although there has been considerable research investigating the association between maternal and environmental factors on adverse birth outcomes, one risk factor, not fully understood, is the influence of the built environment. A search of MEDLINE, Scopus, and Cochrane was conducted to find articles assessing the influence of the built environment on preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), and small-for-gestational-age (SGA). In total, 41 studies met our inclusion criteria, and were organized into nine categories: Roadways, Greenness, Power Plants, Gas Stations/Wells, Waste Management, Power Lines, Neighborhood Conditions, Food Environment, and Industry. The most common built environmental variable was roads/traffic, encompassing 17/41 (41%) of the articles reviewed, of which 12/17 (71%) found a significant small to moderate association between high traffic exposure and adverse birth outcomes.

Metabolic syndrome and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in elderly women: Challenging the current definition.

PubMed

Dragsbæk, Katrine; Neergaard, Jesper S; Laursen, Janne M; Hansen, Henrik B; Christiansen, Claus; Beck-Nielsen, Henning; Karsdal, Morten A; Brix, Susanne; Henriksen, Kim

2016-09-01

The prognostic value of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is believed to vary with age. With an elderly population expecting to triple by 2060, it is important to evaluate the validity of MetS in this age group. We examined the association of MetS risk factors with later risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in elderly Caucasian women. We further investigated if stratification of individuals not defined with MetS would add predictive power in defining future disease prevalence of individuals with MetS.The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor Study, a community-based cohort study, followed 3905 Danish women since 2000 (age: 70.1 ± 6.5) with no previous diagnosis of T2DM or CVD, holding all measurements used for MetS definition; central obesity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and hyperglycemia combined with register-based follow-up information.Elderly women with defined MetS presented a 6.3-fold increased risk of T2DM (95% confidence interval: [3.74-10.50]) and 1.7-fold increased risk of CVD (1.44-2.05) compared to women with no MetS risk factors. Subdividing the control group without defined MetS revealed that both centrally obese controls and controls holding other MetS risk factors also had increased risk of T2DM (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.21 [1.25-3.93] and HR = 1.75 [1.04-2.96]) and CVD (HR = 1.51 [1.25-1.83] and HR = 1.36 [1.15-1.60]) when compared to controls with no MetS risk factors.MetS in elderly Caucasian women increased risk of future T2DM and CVD. While not defined with MetS, women holding only some risk factors for MetS were also at increased risk of T2DM or CVD compared to women with no MetS risk factors.

Metabolic syndrome and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in elderly women

PubMed Central

Dragsbæk, Katrine; Neergaard, Jesper S.; Laursen, Janne M.; Hansen, Henrik B.; Christiansen, Claus; Beck-Nielsen, Henning; Karsdal, Morten A.; Brix, Susanne; Henriksen, Kim

2016-01-01

Abstract The prognostic value of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is believed to vary with age. With an elderly population expecting to triple by 2060, it is important to evaluate the validity of MetS in this age group. We examined the association of MetS risk factors with later risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in elderly Caucasian women. We further investigated if stratification of individuals not defined with MetS would add predictive power in defining future disease prevalence of individuals with MetS. The Prospective Epidemiological Risk Factor Study, a community-based cohort study, followed 3905 Danish women since 2000 (age: 70.1 ± 6.5) with no previous diagnosis of T2DM or CVD, holding all measurements used for MetS definition; central obesity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and hyperglycemia combined with register-based follow-up information. Elderly women with defined MetS presented a 6.3-fold increased risk of T2DM (95% confidence interval: [3.74–10.50]) and 1.7-fold increased risk of CVD (1.44–2.05) compared to women with no MetS risk factors. Subdividing the control group without defined MetS revealed that both centrally obese controls and controls holding other MetS risk factors also had increased risk of T2DM (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.21 [1.25–3.93] and HR = 1.75 [1.04–2.96]) and CVD (HR = 1.51 [1.25–1.83] and HR = 1.36 [1.15–1.60]) when compared to controls with no MetS risk factors. MetS in elderly Caucasian women increased risk of future T2DM and CVD. While not defined with MetS, women holding only some risk factors for MetS were also at increased risk of T2DM or CVD compared to women with no MetS risk factors. PMID:27603394

Relationship Factors and Condom Use Among Women with a History of Intimate Partner Violence.

PubMed

McGrane Minton, Heather A; Mittal, Mona; Elder, Heather; Carey, Michael P

2016-01-01

Women who experience intimate partner violence (IPV) are at increased risk for HIV infection. To further the understanding of the dyadic factors that impact condom use among women, we investigated the impact of three relationship factors (i.e., power, fear, and dependence) on the association between HIV-related information, motivation, and behavioral skills [constructs from the information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model] and condom use among abused women. Data from 133 urban, low-income women recruited from several community-based agencies (e.g., domestic violence agencies, women's health organizations, hospitals, Department of Health and Human Services, and Family Court) showed that these women experienced high levels of IPV and that relationship power, fear of abuse, and partner dependence were all associated with condom use. Multivariable models revealed that fear of abuse and partner dependence moderated the association between IMB constructs and condom use but relationship power did not. Results highlight the critical need to incorporate strategies to address relationship factors in HIV prevention programs with abused women.

Effect of power-assisted hand-rim wheelchair propulsion on shoulder load in experienced wheelchair users: A pilot study with an instrumented wheelchair.

PubMed

Kloosterman, Marieke G M; Buurke, Jaap H; de Vries, Wiebe; Van der Woude, Lucas H V; Rietman, Johan S

2015-10-01

This study aims to compare hand-rim and power-assisted hand-rim propulsion on potential risk factors for shoulder overuse injuries: intensity and repetition of shoulder loading and force generation in the extremes of shoulder motion. Eleven experienced hand-rim wheelchair users propelled an instrumented wheelchair on a treadmill while upper-extremity kinematic, kinetic and surface electromyographical data was collected during propulsion with and without power-assist. As a result during power-assisted propulsion the peak resultant force exerted at the hand-rim decreased and was performed with significantly less abduction and internal rotation at the shoulder. At shoulder level the anterior directed force and internal rotation and flexion moments decreased significantly. In addition, posterior and the minimal inferior directed forces and the external rotation moment significantly increased. The stroke angle decreased significantly, as did maximum shoulder flexion, extension, abduction and internal rotation. Stroke-frequency significantly increased. Muscle activation in the anterior deltoid and pectoralis major also decreased significantly. In conclusion, compared to hand-rim propulsion power-assisted propulsion seems effective in reducing potential risk factors of overuse injuries with the highest gain on decreased range of motion of the shoulder joint, lower peak propulsion force on the rim and reduced muscle activity. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing a suitable model for supplier selection based on supply chain risks: an empirical study from Iranian pharmaceutical companies.

PubMed

Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Rajabzadeh Gatari, Ali; Morakabati, Mohadese; Vatanpour, Hossein

2012-01-01

The supply chain represents the critical link between the development of new product and the market in pharmaceutical industry. Over the years, improvements made in supply chain operations have focused largely on ways to reduce cost and gain efficiencies in scale. In addition, powerful regulatory and market forces have provided new incentives for pharmaceutical firms to basically rethink the way they produce and distribute products, and also to re-imagine the role of the supply chain in driving strategic growth, brand differentiation and economic value in the health continuum. The purpose of this paper is to formulate basic factors involved in risk analysis of pharmaceutical industry, and also determine the effective factors involved in suppliers selection and their priorities. This paper is based on the results of literature review, experts' opinion acquisition, statistical analysis and also using MADM models on data gathered from distributed questionnaires. The model consists of the following steps and components: first factors involved in to supply chain risks are determined. Based on them a framework is considered. According the result of statistical analysis and MADM models the risk factors are formulated. The paper determines the main components and influenceial factors involving in the supply chain risks. Results showed that delivery risk can make an important contribution to mitigate the risk of pharmaceutical industry.

Developing a Suitable Model for Supplier Selection Based on Supply Chain Risks: An Empirical Study from Iranian Pharmaceutical Companies

PubMed Central

Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Rajabzadeh Gatari, Ali; Morakabati, Mohadese; Vatanpour, Hossein

2012-01-01

The supply chain represents the critical link between the development of new product and the market in pharmaceutical industry. Over the years, improvements made in supply chain operations have focused largely on ways to reduce cost and gain efficiencies in scale. In addition, powerful regulatory and market forces have provided new incentives for pharmaceutical firms to basically rethink the way they produce and distribute products, and also to re-imagine the role of the supply chain in driving strategic growth, brand differentiation and economic value in the health continuum. The purpose of this paper is to formulate basic factors involved in risk analysis of pharmaceutical industry, and also determine the effective factors involved in suppliers selection and their priorities. This paper is based on the results of literature review, experts’ opinion acquisition, statistical analysis and also using MADM models on data gathered from distributed questionnaires. The model consists of the following steps and components: first factors involved in to supply chain risks are determined. Based on them a framework is considered. According the result of statistical analysis and MADM models the risk factors are formulated. The paper determines the main components and influenceial factors involving in the supply chain risks. Results showed that delivery risk can make an important contribution to mitigate the risk of pharmaceutical industry. PMID:24250442

Analysis of risk factors for schizophrenia with two different case definitions: a nationwide register-based external validation study.

PubMed

Sørensen, Holger J; Larsen, Janne T; Mors, Ole; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B; Petersen, Liselotte

2015-03-01

Different case definitions of schizophrenia have been used in register based research. However, no previous study has externally validated two different case definitions of schizophrenia against a wide range of risk factors for schizophrenia. We investigated hazard ratios (HRs) for a wide range of risk factors for ICD-10 DCR schizophrenia using a nationwide Danish sample of 2,772,144 residents born in 1955-1997. We compared one contact only (OCO) (the case definition of schizophrenia used in Danish register based studies) with two or more contacts (TMC) (a case definition of at least 2 inpatient contacts with schizophrenia). During the follow-up, the OCO definition included 15,074 and the TMC 7562 cases; i.e. half as many. The TMC case definition appeared to select for a worse illness course. A wide range of risk factors were uniformly associated with both case definitions and only slightly higher risk estimates were found for the TMC definition. Choosing at least 2 inpatient contacts with schizophrenia (TMC) instead of the currently used case definition would result in almost similar risk estimates for many well-established risk factors. However, this would also introduce selection and include considerably fewer cases and reduce power of e.g. genetic studies based on register-diagnosed cases only. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical and radiological risk factors associated with waste from energy production.

PubMed

Christensen, T; Fuglestvedt, J; Benestad, C; Ehdwall, H; Hansen, H; Mustonen, R; Stranden, E

1992-04-01

We have tried to estimate the toxic potential of waste from nuclear power plants and from power plants burning fossil fuels. The potential risks have been expressed as 'risk potentials' or 'person equivalents.' These are purely theoretical units and represent only an attempt to quantify the potential impact of different sources and substances on human health. Existing concentration limits for effects on human health are used. The philosophy behind establishing limits for several carcinogenic chemicals is based on a linear dose-effect curve. That is, no lower concentration of no effect exists and one has to accept a certain small risk by accepting the concentration limit. This is in line with the establishment of limits for radiation. Waste products from coal combustion have the highest potential risk among the fossil fuel alternatives. The highest risk is caused by metals, and the fly ash represents the effluent stream giving the largest contribution to the potential risk. The waste from nuclear power production has a lower potential risk than coal if today's limit values re used. If one adjusts the limits for radiation dose and the concentration limit values so that a similar risk is accepted by the limits, nuclear waste seems to have a much higher potential risk than waste from fossil fuel. The possibility that such risk estimates may be used as arguments for safe storage of the different types of waste is discussed. In order to obtain the actual risk from the potential risk, the dispersion of the waste in the environment and its uptake and effects in man have to be taken into account.

The current contribution of molecular factors to risk estimation in neuroblastoma patients.

PubMed

Berthold, F; Sahin, K; Hero, B; Christiansen, H; Gehring, M; Harms, D; Horz, S; Lampert, F; Schwab, M; Terpe, J

1997-10-01

The association of molecular characteristics with prognosis has been reported, but not their relationship with each other and their impact in the context of known clinical risk factors. In this study, data of 1249 consecutive intent-to-treat-neuroblastoma patients with more than 1 year follow-up were examined by multivariate analysis using loglinear and Cox proportional hazard regression models on a stage-related basis (stages 1-3: 600, 4S: 116, 4: 533). In a first step, risk factors were identified from 18 selected clinical variables, and risk groups defined. The second step investigated whether molecular characteristics (MYCN, LOH 1p, del 1p, CD44, N-ras, NGF-R, bcl-2, APO-1 (CD95)) contributed additional prognostic information to the model. The loglinear model demonstrated several interactions between clinical factors. By the Cox regression model, seven independent clinical risk factors were found for stages 1-3, seven for stage 4 and two for stage 4S. By subsequent introduction of all molecular variables, MYCN amplification only added significant prognostic information to the clinical factors in localised and stage 4 neuroblastoma. The models allowed the definition of risk groups for stages 1-3 patients by age (e beta = 5.09) and MYCN (e beta = 4.26), for stage 4 by MYCN (e beta = 2.78) and number of symptoms (e beta = 2.44) and for stage 4S by platelet count (e beta = 3.91) and general condition (e beta = 2.99). Molecular factors and in particular MYCN contribute significantly to risk estimation. In conjunction with clinical factors, they are powerful tools to define risk groups in neuroblastoma.

Increase of EEG Spectral Theta Power Indicates Higher Risk of the Development of Severe Cognitive Decline in Parkinson’s Disease after 3 Years

PubMed Central

Cozac, Vitalii V.; Chaturvedi, Menorca; Hatz, Florian; Meyer, Antonia; Fuhr, Peter; Gschwandtner, Ute

2016-01-01

Objective: We investigated quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) and clinical parameters as potential risk factors of severe cognitive decline in Parkinson’s disease. Methods: We prospectively investigated 37 patients with Parkinson’s disease at baseline and follow-up (after 3 years). Patients had no severe cognitive impairment at baseline. We used a summary score of cognitive tests as the outcome at follow-up. At baseline we assessed motor, cognitive, and psychiatric factors; qEEG variables [global relative median power (GRMP) spectra] were obtained by a fully automated processing of high-resolution EEG (256-channels). We used linear regression models with calculation of the explained variance to evaluate the relation of baseline parameters with cognitive deterioration. Results: The following baseline parameters significantly predicted severe cognitive decline: GRMP theta (4–8 Hz), cognitive task performance in executive functions and working memory. Conclusions: Combination of neurocognitive tests and qEEG improves identification of patients with higher risk of cognitive decline in PD. PMID:27965571

Risk assessment of mortality for all-cause, ischemic heart disease, cardiopulmonary disease, and lung cancer due to the operation of the world's largest coal-fired power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Pei-Hsuan; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Chen, Chien-Jen; Hu, Suh-Woan; Chiang, Chun-Ju; Tsai, Jeng-Lin; Tang, Mei-Ling; Chen, Guan-Jie; Ku, Kai-Chen

2014-10-01

Based on recent understanding of PM2.5 health-related problems from fossil-fueled power plants emission inventories collected in Taiwan, we have determined the loss of life expectancy (LLE) and the lifetime (75-year) risks for PM2.5 health-related mortalities as attributed to the operation of the world's largest coal-fired power plant; the Taichung Power Plant (TCP), with an installed nominal electrical capacity of 5780 MW in 2013. Five plausible scenarios (combinations of emission controls, fuel switch, and relocation) and two risk factors were considered. It is estimated that the lifetime (75-y) risk for all-cause mortality was 0.3%-0.6% for males and 0.2%-0.4% for females, and LLE at 84 days in 1997 for the 23 million residents of Taiwan. The risk has been reduced to one-fourth at 0.05%-0.10% for males and 0.03%-0.06% for females, and LLE at 15 days in 2007, which was mainly attributed to the installation of desulfurization and de-NOx equipment. Moreover, additional improvements can be expected if we can relocate the power plant to a downwind site on Taiwan, and convert the fuel source from coal to natural gas. The risk can be significantly reduced further to one-fiftieth at 0.001%-0.002% for males and 0.001% for females, and LLE at 0.3 days. Nonetheless, it is still an order higher than the commonly accepted elevated-cancer risk at 0.0001% (10-6), indicating that the PM2.5 health-related risk for operating such a world-class power plant is not negligible. In addition, this study finds that a better-chosen site (involving moving the plant to the leeward side of Taiwan) can reduce the risk significantly as opposed to solely transitioning the fuel source to natural gas. Note that the fuel cost of using natural gas (0.11 USD/kWh in 2013) in Taiwan is about twice the price of using coal fuel (0.05 USD/kWh in 2013).

Gender, Power, and Intimate Partner Violence: A Study on Couples From Rural Malawi

PubMed Central

Conroy, Amy A.

2013-01-01

Gender-based power imbalances are perhaps the most compelling underlying explanation for intimate partner violence (IPV) among women in sub-Saharan Africa. However, an overemphasis on female victimization results in an incomplete understanding of men’s experiences as victims and the broader dyadic context in which violence occurs. This study examines the role of three domains of relationship power (power resources, processes, and outcomes) on sexual and physical IPV victimization in a unique sample of 466 young couples from Malawi. Two power resources were studied, namely, income and education level. Power processes were captured with a measure of couple communication and collaboration called unity. Power outcomes included a measure of relationship dominance (male dominated or female-dominated/egalitarian). Multilevel logistic regression using the Actor Partner Interpersonal Model framework was used to test whether respondent and partner data were predictive of IPV. The findings show that unity and male dominance were salient power factors that influenced young people’s risk for sexual IPV. Unity had a stronger protective effect on sexual IPV for women than for men. Involvement in a male-dominated relationship increased the risk of sexual IPV for women, but decreased the risk for men. The findings also showed that education level and unity were protective against physical IPV for both men and women. Contrary to what was expected, partner data did not play a role in the respondent’s experience of IPV. The consistency of these findings with the literature, theory, and study limitations are discussed. PMID:24227592

Gender, power, and intimate partner violence: a study on couples from rural Malawi.

PubMed

Conroy, Amy A

2014-03-01

Gender-based power imbalances are perhaps the most compelling underlying explanation for intimate partner violence (IPV) among women in sub-Saharan Africa. However, an overemphasis on female victimization results in an incomplete understanding of men's experiences as victims and the broader dyadic context in which violence occurs. This study examines the role of three domains of relationship power (power resources, processes, and outcomes) on sexual and physical IPV victimization in a unique sample of 466 young couples from Malawi. Two power resources were studied, namely, income and education level. Power processes were captured with a measure of couple communication and collaboration called unity. Power outcomes included a measure of relationship dominance (male dominated or female-dominated/egalitarian). Multilevel logistic regression using the Actor Partner Interpersonal Model framework was used to test whether respondent and partner data were predictive of IPV. The findings show that unity and male dominance were salient power factors that influenced young people's risk for sexual IPV. Unity had a stronger protective effect on sexual IPV for women than for men. Involvement in a male-dominated relationship increased the risk of sexual IPV for women, but decreased the risk for men. The findings also showed that education level and unity were protective against physical IPV for both men and women. Contrary to what was expected, partner data did not play a role in the respondent's experience of IPV. The consistency of these findings with the literature, theory, and study limitations are discussed.

Strength training in the elderly: effects on risk factors for age-related diseases.

PubMed

Hurley, B F; Roth, S M

2000-10-01

Strength training (ST) is considered a promising intervention for reversing the loss of muscle function and the deterioration of muscle structure that is associated with advanced age. This reversal is thought to result in improvements in functional abilities and health status in the elderly by increasing muscle mass, strength and power and by increasing bone mineral density (BMD). In the past couple of decades, many studies have examined the effects of ST on risk factors for age-related diseases or disabilities. Collectively, these studies indicate that ST in the elderly: (i) is an effective intervention against sarcopenia because it produces substantial increases in the strength, mass, power and quality of skeletal muscle; (ii) can increase endurance performance; (iii) normalises blood pressure in those with high normal values; (iv) reduces insulin resistance; (v) decreases both total and intra-abdominal fat; (vi) increases resting metabolic rate in older men; (vii) prevents the loss of BMD with age; (viii) reduces risk factors for falls; and (ix) may reduce pain and improve function in those with osteoarthritis in the knee region. However, contrary to popular belief, ST does not increase maximal oxygen uptake beyond normal variations, improve lipoprotein or lipid profiles, or improve flexibility in the elderly.

Forecast Inaccuracies in Power Plant Projects From Project Managers' Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanabria, Orlando

Guided by organizational theory, this phenomenological study explored the factors affecting forecast preparation and inaccuracies during the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants in the United States. Forecast inaccuracies can create financial stress and uncertain profits during the project construction phase. A combination of purposeful and snowball sampling supported the selection of participants. Twenty project managers with over 15 years of experience in power generation and project experience across the United States were interviewed within a 2-month period. From the inductive codification and descriptive analysis, 5 themes emerged: (a) project monitoring, (b) cost control, (c) management review frequency, (d) factors to achieve a precise forecast, and (e) factors causing forecast inaccuracies. The findings of the study showed the factors necessary to achieve a precise forecast includes a detailed project schedule, accurate labor cost estimates, monthly project reviews and risk assessment, and proper utilization of accounting systems to monitor costs. The primary factors reported as causing forecast inaccuracies were cost overruns by subcontractors, scope gaps, labor cost and availability of labor, and equipment and material cost. Results of this study could improve planning accuracy and the effective use of resources during construction of power plants. The study results could contribute to social change by providing a framework to project managers to lessen forecast inaccuracies, and promote construction of power plants that will generate employment opportunities and economic development.

Impacts of Severe Weather, Climate Zone, and Energy Factors on Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic , and wind power . Aside from locations and facilities that use electricity to heat, natural gas is the only...have large photovoltaic solar arrays with unique buy-back contracts or power -purchase agreements. These renewable energy projects benefit primarily...these costs, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to forecast annual costs and account for uncertainty with tornado and hurricane risks, along with

JUNO Photovoltaic Power at Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, Stephen F.; Stella, Paul; McAlpine, William; Smith, Brian

2012-01-01

This paper summarizes the Juno modeling team work on predicting the Juno solar array performance at critical mission points including Juno Orbit Insertion (JOI) and End of Mission (EOM). This report consists of background on Juno solar array design, a summary of power estimates, an explanation of the modeling approach used by Aerospace, a detailed discussion of loss factors and performance predictions, a thermal analysis, and a review of risks to solar array performance

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia.

PubMed

Wijayanti, Siwi P M; Porphyre, Thibaud; Chase-Topping, Margo; Rainey, Stephanie M; McFarlane, Melanie; Schnettler, Esther; Biek, Roman; Kohl, Alain

2016-09-01

Dengue is a major mosquito-borne viral disease and an important public health problem. Identifying which factors are important determinants in the risk of dengue infection is critical in supporting and guiding preventive measures. In South-East Asia, half of all reported fatal infections are recorded in Indonesia, yet little is known about the epidemiology of dengue in this country. Hospital-reported dengue cases in Banyumas regency, Central Java were examined to build Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models assessing the influence of climatic, demographic and socio-economic factors on the risk of dengue infection. A socio-economic factor linking employment type and economic status was the most influential on the risk of dengue infection in the Regency. Other factors such as access to healthcare facilities and night-time temperature were also found to be associated with higher risk of reported dengue infection but had limited explanatory power. Our data suggest that dengue infections are triggered by indoor transmission events linked to socio-economic factors (employment type, economic status). Preventive measures in this area should therefore target also specific environments such as schools and work areas to attempt and reduce dengue burden in this community. Although our analysis did not account for factors such as variations in immunity which need further investigation, this study can advise preventive measures in areas with similar patterns of reported dengue cases and environment.

Intimate partner violence and consistent condom use among drug-using heterosexual women in New York City

PubMed Central

Frye, Victoria; Nandi, Vijay; Galea, Sandro; Vlahov, David; Ompad, Danielle

2010-01-01

The present study examined the associations of relationship factors, partner violence, relationship power, and condom-use related factors with condom use with a main male partner among drug-using women. Over two visits, 244 heterosexual drug-using women completed a cross-sectional survey. Multivariate logistic regression models indicated that women who expected positive outcomes and perceived lower condom-use barriers were more likely to report condom use with their intimate partners. The findings suggest that future interventions aiming at reducing HIV risk among drug-using women should focus on women’s subjective appraisals of risks based on key relationship factors in addition to the occurrence of partner violence. PMID:20437300

Comparison of Time-to-First Event and Recurrent Event Methods in Randomized Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Claggett, Brian; Pocock, Stuart; Wei, L J; Pfeffer, Marc A; McMurray, John J V; Solomon, Scott D

2018-03-27

Background -Most Phase-3 trials feature time-to-first event endpoints for their primary and/or secondary analyses. In chronic diseases where a clinical event can occur more than once, recurrent-event methods have been proposed to more fully capture disease burden and have been assumed to improve statistical precision and power compared to conventional "time-to-first" methods. Methods -To better characterize factors that influence statistical properties of recurrent-events and time-to-first methods in the evaluation of randomized therapy, we repeatedly simulated trials with 1:1 randomization of 4000 patients to active vs control therapy, with true patient-level risk reduction of 20% (i.e. RR=0.80). For patients who discontinued active therapy after a first event, we assumed their risk reverted subsequently to their original placebo-level risk. Through simulation, we varied a) the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk and b) the extent of treatment discontinuation. Findings were compared with those from actual randomized clinical trials. Results -As the degree of between-patient heterogeneity of risk was increased, both time-to-first and recurrent-events methods lost statistical power to detect a true risk reduction and confidence intervals widened. The recurrent-events analyses continued to estimate the true RR=0.80 as heterogeneity increased, while the Cox model produced estimates that were attenuated. The power of recurrent-events methods declined as the rate of study drug discontinuation post-event increased. Recurrent-events methods provided greater power than time-to-first methods in scenarios where drug discontinuation was ≤30% following a first event, lesser power with drug discontinuation rates of ≥60%, and comparable power otherwise. We confirmed in several actual trials in chronic heart failure that treatment effect estimates were attenuated when estimated via the Cox model and that increased statistical power from recurrent-events methods was most pronounced in trials with lower treatment discontinuation rates. Conclusions -We find that the statistical power of both recurrent-events and time-to-first methods are reduced by increasing heterogeneity of patient risk, a parameter not included in conventional power and sample size formulas. Data from real clinical trials are consistent with simulation studies, confirming that the greatest statistical gains from use of recurrent-events methods occur in the presence of high patient heterogeneity and low rates of study drug discontinuation.

Age Got to Do With It? Partner Age Difference, Power, Intimate Partner Violence, and Sexual Risk in Urban Adolescents

PubMed Central

Volpe, Ellen M.; Hardie, Thomas L.; Cerulli, Catherine; Sommers, Marilynn S.; Morrison-Beedy, Dianne

2013-01-01

Adolescent girls with older male main partners are at greater risk for adverse sexual health outcomes than other adolescent girls. One explanation for this finding is that low relationship power occurs with partner age difference. Using a cross-sectional, descriptive design, we investigated the effect of partner age difference between an adolescent girl and her male partner on sexual risk behavior through the mediators of sexual relationship power, and physical intimate partner violence (IPV), and psychological IPV severity. We chose Blanc’s framework to guide this study as it depicts the links among demographic, social, economic, relationship, family and community characteristics, and reproductive health outcomes with gender-based relationship power and violence. Urban adolescent girls (N = 155) completed an anonymous computer-assisted self-interview survey to examine partner and relationship factors’ effect on consistent condom use. Our sample had an average age of 16.1 years with a mean partner age of 17.8 years. Partners were predominantly African American (75%), non-Hispanic (74%), and low-income (81%); 24% of participants reported consistent condom use in the last 3 months. Descriptive, correlation, and multiple mediation analyses were conducted. Partner age difference was negatively associated with consistent condom use (−.4292, p < .01); however, the indirect effects through three proposed mediators (relationship power, physical IPV, or psychological IPV severity) were not statistically significant. Further studies are needed to explore alternative rationale explaining the relationship between partner age differences and sexual risk factors within adolescent sexual relationships. Nonetheless, for clinicians and researchers, these findings underscore the heightened risk associated with partner age differences and impact of relationship dynamics on sexual risk behavior. PMID:23345572

References of anthropometric indices of central obesity and metabolic syndrome in Jordanian men and women.

PubMed

Al-Odat, Areej Zaal; Ahmad, Mousa Numan; Haddad, Fares Halim

2012-01-01

To set references and evaluate the associations between the predictive powers of the anthropometric indices of obesity, particularly central obesity, including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist to hip ratio (WHpR) and waist to height ratio (WHtR), and the risk factor accumulations of ≥ 2 of the components of the metabolic syndrome (MS) in a group of Jordanian men and women. Five hundreds subjects were randomly selected from among the visitors attending several family clinics in Amman. Obesity was assessed using BMI, WC, WHpR and WHtR anthropometric indices. MS risk factors as defined by the International Diabetes Federation were determined. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to determine the predictive powers and the cut off points of each index associated with increased MS risk. There were 212 men and 288 women with age ranged 20-85 years. Optimal cut off points of BMI, WC, WHpR for MS diagnosis in men were 28.4 kg/m(2), 97.8 cm and 0.89, respectively. In women, these were 30.3 kg/m(2), 95.6 cm and 0.84, respectively. WHtR was 0.61 in both genders. Area under the curve (AUC) of ROC analysis for identifying of MS (≥ 2 risk factors) was the highest for WHpR (AUC=0.71), followed by WHtR (AUC=0.67), WC (AUC=0.64) and BMI (AUC=0.59) in men; whereas in women WHpR, WHtR and WC were almost equal (AUC=0.76, 0.75 and 0.74, respectively), followed by BMI (AUC=0.67). Correlation coefficients (r) between WHpR and MS risk factors were the strongest among the other obesity indices, followed by WC and WHtR. WHpR correlated significantly with FBG (r=0.27, p<0.01), systolic blood pressure (r=0.20, p<0.01), TGs (r=0.24, p<0.01) and HDL-C (r=-0.39, p<0.01). The respective r-values between WC and WHtR and each MS risk factors were: FBG (r=0.15, p<0.001 or r=0.13, p<0.01), systolic blood pressure (r=0.16, p<0.01 or r=0.11, p<0.05), TGs (r=0.20, p<0.01 or r=0.14, p<0.01) and HDL-C (r=-0.25, p<0.01 or r=-0.11, p<0.01). This study showed that BMI tended to be the weakest index for identifying MS risk factors in both sexes. WHpR exhibited the best predictive index for MS, particularly in men. Almost similar predictive powers of WHtR, WHpR and WC for identifying MS risk factors were seen in women. WHtR had the highest sensitivity for MS diagnosis among obesity indices in men and its boundary value was the same for both men and women. These cut off values of obesity particularly waist circumference should be advocated and used in Arab Jordanians until larger cross sectional studies shows different results. Copyright © 2012 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The MFMU Cesarean Registry: uterine atony after primary cesarean delivery.

PubMed

Rouse, Dwight J; Leindecker, Sharon; Landon, Mark; Bloom, Steven L; Varner, Michael W; Moawad, Atef H; Spong, Catherine Y; Caritis, Steve N; Harper, Margaret; Wapner, Ronald J; Sorokin, Yoram; Miodovnik, Menachem; O'Sullivan, Mary Jo; Sibai, Baha M; Langer, Oded

2005-09-01

The purpose of this study was to define independent risk factors for uterine atony after primary cesarean delivery, and to assess their overall association with atony in the study cohort. This was a 13-university center prospective observational study. All women who underwent primary cesarean from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2000 were eligible. Trained and certified research nurses performed systematic data abstraction. The definition of atony required both the clinical diagnosis and the use of methergine or a prostaglandin preparation. Risk factors for uterine atony were assessed in univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses, and these analyses then used to inform an assessment of the association of the various risk factors with the occurrence of uterine atony in the overall cohort. Twenty-three thousand, three hundred and ninety pregnancies were analyzed. Uterine atony occurred in 1416 women (6%). Several variables were independently associated with atony in a multivariable model, including multiple gestation (odds ratio [OR] 2.40, 95% CI 1.95-2.93), maternal Hispanic race (2.21, 1.90-2.57), induced or augmented labor for >18 hours (2.23, 1.92-2.60), infant birth weight >4500 g (2.05, 1.53-2.69), and clinically diagnosed chorioamnionitis (1.80, 1.55-2.09). However, because the various risk factors were not very powerful, approximately half of the cases of atony were associated with the 2/3 of women lacking a given risk factor or combination of risk factors. Although certain risk factors and uterine atony were clearly associated, the associations are of limited practical clinical use.

Resiliency of the Nation's Power Grid: Assessing Risks of Premature Failure of Large Power Transformers Under Climate Warming and Increased Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Morgan, E.

2017-12-01

The aging pieces of our nation's power grid - the largest machine ever built - are at a critical time. Key assets in the transmission system, including large power transformers (LPTs), are approaching their originally designed lifetimes. Moreover, extreme weather and climate events upon which these design lifetimes are partially based are expected to change. In particular, more frequent and intense heat waves can accelerate the degradation of LPTs' insulation/cooling system. Thus, there are likely thousands of LPTs across the United States under increasing risk of premature failure - yet this risk has not been assessed. In this study, we investigate the impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in heat waves for critical LPTs located in the Northeast corridor of the United States to assess: To what extent do changes in heat waves/events present a rising threat to the transformer network over the Northeast U.S. and to what extent can climate mitigation reduce this risk? This study focuses on a collection of LPTs with a high degree of "betweenness" - while recognizing other factors such as: connectivity, voltage rating, MVA rating, approximate price, weight, location/proximity to major transportation routes, and age. To assess the risk of future change in heat wave occurrence we use an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of heat waves based on associated large-scale atmospheric conditions. This method is compared to the more conventional approach that uses model-simulated daily maximum temperature. Under future climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both methods indicate strong increases in heat wave frequency during the latter half of this century. Under weak climate mitigation - the risks imposed from heat wave occurrence could quadruple, but a modest mitigation scenario cuts the increasing threat in half. As important, the analogue method substantially improves the model consensus through reduction of the interquartile range by a factor of three. The improved inter-model consensus is viewed as a promising step toward providing more actionable climate information. Ultimately - this technique could be applied to the entirety of the U.S. power grid as well as other weather extrema (e.g. precipitation, ice, and wind) as well as assess current and future topologies of any electricity system.

Use of Electric Power Morcellation and Prevalence of Underlying Cancer in Women Who Undergo Myomectomy.

PubMed

Wright, Jason D; Tergas, Ana I; Cui, Rosa; Burke, William M; Hou, June Y; Ananth, Cande V; Chen, Ling; Richards, Catherine; Neugut, Alfred I; Hershman, Dawn L

2015-04-01

Myomectomy, the excision of uterine leiomyoma, is now commonly performed via minimally invasive surgery. Electric power morcellation, or fragmentation of the leiomyoma with a mechanical device, may be used to facilitate extraction of the leiomyoma. To analyze the prevalence of underlying cancer and precancerous changes in women who underwent myomectomy with and without electric power uterine morcellation. We used a US nationwide database to retrospectively analyze women who underwent myomectomy at 496 hospitals from January 2006 to December 2012. Use of electric power morcellation at the time of myomectomy was investigated. The prevalence of uterine cancer, uterine neoplasms of uncertain malignant potential, and endometrial hyperplasia were estimated. Multivariable mixed-effects regression models were developed to examine predictors of use of electric power morcellation and factors associated with adverse pathologic outcomes. Use of electric power morcellation at the time of myomectomy was examined. The occurrence of uterine cancer and precancerous uterine lesions was determined. The cohort consisted of 41 777 women who underwent myomectomy at 496 hospitals and included 3220 (7.7%) who had electric power morcellation. Uterine cancer was identified in 73 (1 in 528) women who underwent myomectomy without electric power morcellation (0.19%; 95% CI, 0.15%-0.23%) and in 3 (1 in 1073) women who underwent electric power morcellation (0.09%; 95% CI, 0.02%-0.27%). The corresponding rates of any pathologic finding (cancer, tumors of uncertain malignant potential, or endometrial hyperplasia) were 0.67% (n = 257) (95% CI, 0.59%-0.75%) (1 in 150) and 0.43% (n = 14) (95% CI, 0.21%-0.66%) (1 in 230), respectively. Advanced age was the strongest risk factor for uterine cancer. The prevalence of cancers and precancerous abnormalities of the uterus in women who undergo myomectomy with or without electric power morcellation is low overall, but risk increases with age. Electric power morcellation should be used with caution in older women undergoing myomectomy.

Protective Factors Against Depression and Suicidal Behaviour in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Breton, Jean-Jacques; Labelle, Réal; Berthiaume, Claude; Royer, Chantal; St-Georges, Marie; Ricard, Dominique; Abadie, Pascale; Gérardin, Priscille; Cohen, David; Guilé, Jean-Marc

2015-01-01

Objectives: To examine whether protective factors in the Protection for Adolescent Depression Study (PADS) moderate the impact of stressful events on depression and suicidal behaviour in the community and a clinical setting; and to study the influence of sex. Method: Participants were 283 adolescents from the community and 119 from a mood disorder clinic in Montreal. The participants were evaluated on 6 instruments measuring individual risk and protective factors. Descriptive analyses and univariate and multiple logistic regression models were carried out. Results: Risk factors predicted higher levels of depression and presence of suicidal behaviour, and protective factors predicted lower levels of depression and absence of suicidal behaviour, as expected under the vulnerability-resilience stress model. Several sex differences were observed in terms of the predictive power of risk factors (for example, hopelessness among girls and keep to themselves among boys) and protective factors (for example, focusing on the positive among girls and self-discovery among boys). Conclusions: Findings from the PADS suggest that protective factors moderate the impact of stress on depression and suicidal behaviour. Developing protection appears important in the presence of chronic conditions, such as depressive disorders, to reduce the likelihood of further episodes. The influence of sex makes it all the more relevant to target different factors for boys and girls to increase protection and decrease risk in prevention and intervention programs. PMID:25886672

The 2006 William Feinberg lecture: shifting the paradigm from stroke to global vascular risk estimation.

PubMed

Sacco, Ralph L

2007-06-01

By the year 2010, it is estimated that 18.1 million people worldwide will die annually because of cardiovascular diseases and stroke. "Global vascular risk" more broadly includes the multiple overlapping disease silos of stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and vascular death. Estimation of global vascular risk requires consideration of a variety of variables including demographics, environmental behaviors, and risk factors. Data from multiple studies suggest continuous linear relationships between the physiological vascular risk modulators of blood pressure, lipids, and blood glucose rather than treating these conditions as categorical risk factors. Constellations of risk factors may be more relevant than individual categorical components. Exciting work with novel risk factors may also have predictive value in estimates of global vascular risk. Advances in imaging have led to the measurement of subclinical conditions such as carotid intima-media thickness and subclinical brain conditions such as white matter hyperintensities and silent infarcts. These subclinical measurements may be intermediate stages in the transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic vascular events, appear to be associated with the fundamental vascular risk factors, and represent opportunities to more precisely quantitate disease progression. The expansion of studies in molecular epidemiology and detection of genetic markers underlying vascular risks also promises to extend our precision of global vascular risk estimation. Global vascular risk estimation will require quantitative methods that bundle these multi-dimensional data into more precise estimates of future risk. The power of genetic information coupled with data on demographics, risk-inducing behaviors, vascular risk modulators, biomarkers, and measures of subclinical conditions should provide the most realistic approximation of an individual's future global vascular risk. The ultimate public health benefit, however, will depend on not only identification of global vascular risk but also the realization that we can modify this risk and prove the prediction models wrong.

The predictive role of health-promoting behaviours and perceived stress in aneurysmal rupture.

PubMed

Lee, Mi-Sun; Park, Chang G; Hughes, Tonda L; Jun, Sang-Eun; Whang, Kum; Kim, Nahyun

2018-03-01

To examine the roles of two modifiable factors-health-promoting behaviours and perceived stress-in predicting aneurysmal rupture. Unruptured intracranial aneurysm detection produces significant stress and anxiety in patients because of the risk of rupture. Compared to nonmodifiable risk factors for rupture such as age, gender and aneurysm size/location, less attention has been given to modifiable risk factors. Two modifiable factors, health-promoting behaviours and perceived stress, have hardly been examined as potential predictors of rupture. This study used a cross-sectional design. We assessed 155 patients with intracranial aneurysms-that is, subarachnoid haemorrhage (n = 77) or unruptured intracranial aneurysm (n = 78)-to examine (i) baseline characteristics (patient and aneurysmal factors), (ii) health-related factors (lifestyle habits and health-promoting behaviour) and (iii) perceived stress levels (psychological stress and physical stress). Patient records provided medical histories and aneurysmal factors; other data were collected using a structured questionnaire addressing lifestyle habits, the Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile-II to measure health-promoting behaviour and the Perceived Stress Questionnaire to measure perceived-psychological stress and perceived-physical stress levels. Bivariate analysis indicated that aneurysm rupture risk was associated with female gender, aneurysm size/location, defecation frequency, hyperlipidaemia, sedentary time, low Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile-II mean scores and high perceived-psychological stress scores. After adjusting for known risk factors, the mean Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile-II and perceived-psychological stress scores remained robust predictors of rupture. Furthermore, known risk factors combined with these scores had greater predictive power than known risk factors alone. Health-promoting behaviour and psychological stress are promising modifiable factors for reducing risk of aneurysmal rupture. Our findings may stimulate greater understanding of mechanisms underlying aneurysmal rupture and suggest practical strategies for nurses to employ in optimising conservative management of rupture risk by teaching patients how to modify their risk. Both health-promoting behaviour and perceived stress should be addressed when designing preventive nursing interventions for patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysm. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A five-factor model of personality and addiction, psychiatric, and AIDS risk severity in pregnant and postpartum cocaine misusers.

PubMed

Ball, S A; Schottenfeld, R S

1997-01-01

The relationship between addiction severity, psychiatric symptoms, AIDS risk behaviors, and an alternative five-factor measure of personality, the Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire, was assessed in 92 cocaine-misusing pregnant and postpartum women in an inner city outpatient treatment program. Three of the personality traits (Neuroticism-Anxiety, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, Aggression-Hostility) were significantly related to different subscales of the Addiction Severity Index, Beck Depression Inventory, various psychiatric symptoms, and high HIV risk sexual activity. Of these traits, Neuroticism-Anxiety seemed to be the most powerful predictor of symptom severity for this sample of women. Scores on the personality dimensions were not related to recency, frequency, amount, or duration of drug use or to treatment outcomes.

Alzheimer disease is substantially preventable in the United States -- review of risk factors, therapy, and the prospects for an expert software system.

PubMed

Jansson, Erik T

2005-01-01

Epidemiology studies, including both regional incidence and the analysis of specific risk factors for Alzheimer's disease indicate that substantial prevention of the disease, in the 50-70 percent range, is a practical possibility for the United States. Epidemiology has identified a rich diversity of specific prevention strategies relating to nutrition, dietary supplements, lifestyle, food and environmental toxins, and in some cases medication, many of which have a capacity to reduce Alzheimer's risk by 50 percent or more. The interaction of these risk factors with brain biology is increasingly understood. In contrast, therapeutic strategies for un-prevented Alzheimer's generally prove incapable of delaying disease progression by more than 3-11 months, because extensive brain cell death occurs even in preclinical or mild cases. A public health program aimed at prevention can be fashioned with expert software packages, based on already identified risk factors. Such statistical analysis should allow the prediction of individual and group Alzheimer's risks of sufficient power to instruct the formulation of lifestyle, nutritional and environmental programs to substantially reduce disease incidence. A less satisfactory but complementary alternative is very early disease detection with therapeutic strategies focused on retardation of brain cell death, so that the person dies of another cause before the disease is clinically manifested.

A developmental perspective on high power laser facility technology for ICF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jianqiang; Sun, Mingying; Liu, Chong; Guo, Yajing; Yang, Lin; Yang, Pengqian; Zhang, Yanli; Wang, Bingyan; Liu, Cheng; Li, Yangshuai; Ren, Zhiyuan; Liu, Dean; Liu, Zhigang; Jiao, Zhaoyang; Ren, Lei; Zhang, Guowen; Fan, Quantang; Feng, Tao; Lin, Zunqi

2018-02-01

The latest progress on high power laser facilities in NLHPLP was reported. Based on a high power laser prototype, damage behavior of 3ω optics was experimentally tested, and the key influencing factors contributed to laser-induced damage in optics were deeply analyzed. The latest experimental results of advanced precision measurement for optical quality applied in the high power laser facility were introduced. At last, based on the accumulated works of 3ω elements damage behavior status in our laboratory, beam expanding scheme was presented to increase the total maximum output 3ω energy properly and decrease the laser induced damage risking of ω optics simultaneously.

Carotid intima media thickness and plaques can predict the occurrence of ischemic cerebrovascular events.

PubMed

Prati, Patrizio; Tosetto, Alberto; Vanuzzo, Diego; Bader, Giovanni; Casaroli, Marco; Canciani, Luigi; Castellani, Sergio; Touboul, Pierre-Jean

2008-09-01

The clinical usefulness of noninvasive measurement of carotid intima media thickness and plaque visualization in the general population is still uncertain. We evaluated the age-specific incidence rates of cerebrovascular events in a cohort of 1348 subjects randomly taken from the census list of San Daniele Township and followed for a mean period of 12.7 years. The association among common carotid intima media thickness, measured at baseline, arterial risk factors, and incidence of ischemic cerebrovascular events was modeled using Poisson regression. The predictive ability of common carotid intima media thickness over arterial risk factors (summarized in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score) was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. During the follow-up, 115 subjects developed nonfatal ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or vascular death, which were the predefined study end points. After adjustment for age and sex, hypertension, diabetes, common carotid intima media thickness above 1 mm, and carotid plaques were all independent risk factors for development of vascular events. Inclusion of carotid findings (presence of common carotid intima media thickness above 1 mm or carotid plaques) resulted in a predictive power higher than Framingham Stroke Risk Score alone only on for those subjects with a Framingham Stroke Risk Score over 20%. Although common carotid intima media thickness and presence of carotid plaques are known to be risk factors for the development of vascular events and to be independent from the conventional risk factors summarized in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, their contribution to individual risk prediction is limited. Further studies will be required to address the role of carotid ultrasonography in the primary prevention of high-risk subjects.

Fatal falls in the US construction industry, 1990 to 1999.

PubMed

Derr, J; Forst, L; Chen, H Y; Conroy, L

2001-10-01

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration's (OSHA's) Integrated Management Information System (IMIS) database allows for the detailed analysis of risk factors surrounding fatal occupational events. This study used IMIS data to (1) perform a risk factor analysis of fatal construction falls, and (2) assess the impact of the February 1995 29 CFR Part 1926 Subpart M OSHA fall protection regulations for construction by calculating trends in fatal fall rates. In addition, IMIS data on fatal construction falls were compared with data from other occupational fatality surveillance systems. For falls in construction, the study identified several demographic factors that may indicate increased risk. A statistically significant downward trend in fatal falls was evident in all construction and within several construction categories during the decade. Although the study failed to show a statistically significant intervention effect from the new OSHA regulations, it may have lacked the power to do so.

Prevalence and its risk factors for low back pain among operation and maintenance personnel in wind farms.

PubMed

Jia, Ning; Li, Tao; Hu, Shuangqiu; Zhu, Xinhe; Sun, Kang; Yi, Long; Zhang, Qiong; Luo, Guilian; Li, Yuzhen; Zhang, Xueyan; Gu, Yongen; Wang, Zhongxu

2016-07-26

With the increasingly severe energy shortage and climate change problems, developing wind power has become a key energy development strategy and an inevitable choice to protect the ecological environment worldwide. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of low back pain (LBP) and analyze its risk factors among operation and maintenance personnel in wind farms (OMPWF). A cross-sectional survey of 151 OMPWF was performed, and a comprehensive questionnaire, which was modified and combined from Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaires (NMQ), Washington State Ergonomics Tool (WSET) and Syndrome Checklist-90(SCL-90) was used to assess the prevalence and risk factors of LBP among OMPWF. The prevalence of LBP was 88.74 % (134/151) among OMPWF. The multivariable model highlighted four related factors: backrest, somatization, squatting and lifting objects weighing more than 10 lb more than twice per minute. The prevalence of LBP among OMPWF appears to be high and highlights a major occupational health concern.

[Satisfaction with life of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: a study of possible protection and risk factors].

PubMed

Miranda-Casas, Ana; Presentacion-Herrero, M Jesús; Colomer-Diago, Carla; Roselló, Belén

2011-03-01

Positive psychology has boosted interest about the study of factors of adjustment, among which is included satisfaction with life. To analyze the relationship between satisfaction with life of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and their parents with behavioral risk and protective variables, and to determine the predictive power of these variables. 56 parents and their children with ADHD filled out questionnaires of satisfaction with life, self-concept, sense of coherence, success attributes and behavioral rating scales. Behavioral problems have a significant negative relationship with satisfaction with life perceived by parents and by children while the relationships with the self-concept and success attributes have a positive value. The most predictive factors were social problems, oppositional behavior, self-concept, self-awareness and social support. The identification of factors that put at risk or enhance satisfaction with life of people with ADHD will improve the functionality of evaluation and intervention processes.

Role of nuclear power in the Philippine power development program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aleta, C.R.

1994-12-31

The reintroduction of nuclear power in the Philippines is favored by several factors such as: the inclusion of nuclear energy in the energy sector of the science and technology agenda for national development (STAND); the Large gap between electricity demand and available local supply for the medium-term power development plan; the relatively lower health risks in nuclear power fuel cycle systems compared to the already acceptable power systems; the lower environmental impacts of nuclear power systems compared to fossil fuelled systems and the availability of a regulatory framework and trained personnel who could form a core for implementing a nuclearmore » power program. The electricity supply gap of 9600 MW for the period 1993-2005 could be partly supplied by nuclear power. The findings of a recent study are described, as well as the issues that have to be addressed in the reintroduction of nuclear power.« less

Power and violence: the relation between communication patterns, power discrepancies, and domestic violence.

PubMed

Babcock, J C; Waltz, J; Jacobson, N S; Gottman, J M

1993-02-01

This study hypothesized that power discrepancies in the marital relationship, where the husband is subordinate, serve as risk factors for husband-to-wife violence. The construct of marital power was assessed from 3 power domains operationalized by discrepancies in economic status, decision-making power, communication patterns, and communication skill. Three groups of married couples (N = 95) were compared: domestically violent (DV), maritally distressed/nonviolent (DNV), and maritally happy/nonviolent (HNV). DV couples were more likely than the 2 nonviolent groups to engage in husband demand/wife withdraw interactions. Within the DV group, husbands who had less power were more physically abusive toward their wives. Thus, violence may be compensatory behavior to make up for husbands' lack of power in other arenas of marriage. Difficulties in assessing marital power and future direction for the study of power and violence are discussed.

Prognostic stratification model for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer adenocarcinoma treated with surgical resection without adjuvant therapies using metabolic features measured on F-18 FDG PET and postoperative pathologic factors.

PubMed

Kang, Yeon-Koo; Song, Yoo Sung; Cho, Sukki; Jheon, Sanghoon; Lee, Won Woo; Kim, Kwhanmien; Kim, Sang Eun

2018-05-01

In the management of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the prognostic stratification of stage I tumors without indication of adjuvant therapy, remains to be elucidated in order to better select patients who can benefit from additional therapies. We aimed to stratify the prognosis of patients with stage I NSCLC adenocarcinoma using clinicopathologic factors and F-18 FDG PET. We retrospectively enrolled 128 patients with stage I NSCLC without any high-risk factors, who underwent curative surgical resection without adjuvant therapies. Preoperative clinical and postoperative pathologic factors were evaluated by medical record review. Standardized uptake value corrected with lean body mass (SUL max ) was measured on F-18 FDG PET. Among the factors, independent predictors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) were selected using univariate and stepwise multivariate survival analyses. A prognostic stratification model for RFS was designed using the selected factors. Tumors recurred in nineteen patients (14.8%). Among the investigated clinicopathologic and FDG PET factors, SUL max on PET and spread through air spaces (STAS) on pathologic review were determined to be independent prognostic factors for RFS. A prognostic model was designed using these two factors in the following manner: (1) Low-risk: SUL max  ≤ 1.9 and no STAS, (2) intermediate-risk: neither low-risk nor high-risk, (3) high-risk: SUL max> 1.9 and observed STAS. This model exhibited significant predictive power for RFS. We showed that FDG uptake and STAS are significant prognostic markers in stage I NSCLC adenocarcinoma treated with surgical resection without adjuvant therapies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Racial differences and other risk factors for incidence and progression of age-related macular degeneration: Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) Project.

PubMed

Chang, Margaret A; Bressler, Susan B; Munoz, Beatriz; West, Sheila K

2008-06-01

To evaluate risk factors for the incidence and progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a racially heterogeneous, geriatric population. Subjects (n = 2240) aged 65 to 84 years underwent 2 examinations separated by 2 years, of which 1937 subjects (85%) were included in this report. Fundus photographs were performed at each examination and were graded by trained readers. Multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, race, and clustering between eyes were used to evaluate risk factors for AMD incidence and progression. Smoking was a strong, dose-dependent, risk factor for progression from medium size drusen to large drusen or pigmentary abnormalities within the central 1500-microm macular zone. Smoking was also a strong risk factor for development of incident focal pigmentation within 3000 microm of the foveal center. White participants were significantly more likely than blacks to develop large drusen and focal pigmentation and to progress from medium- to large-sized drusen or pigment abnormalities within the central 1500 microm macular zone. However, whites did not have an increased risk of progression from large drusen or pigment abnormalities within the central 1500-microm perimacular zone to foveal GA or CNV when compared with blacks. Smoking and race are important risk factors for progression from medium to large drusen or to pigment abnormalities within the central 1500-microm macular zone. Limitations in the power of this study preclude assessment of the roles of smoking and race on the ultimate progression to foveal GA or CNV once central large drusen or pigment abnormalities are present.

Relationship between TG/HDL-C ratio and metabolic syndrome risk factors with chronic kidney disease in healthy adult population.

PubMed

Ho, Chih-I; Chen, Jau-Yuan; Chen, Shou-Yen; Tsai, Yi-Wen; Weng, Yi-Ming; Tsao, Yu-Chung; Li, Wen-Cheng

2015-10-01

The triglycerides-to-high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio has been identified as a biomarker of insulin resistance and a predictor for atherosclerosis. The objectives of this study were to investigate which the TG/HDL-C ratio is useful to detect metabolic syndrome (MS) risk factors and subclinical chronic kidney disease (CKD) in general population without known CKD or renal impairment and to compare predictive accuracy of MS risk factors. This was a cross-sectional study. A total 46,255 subjects aged ≥18 years undergoing health examination during 2010-2011 in Taiwan. The independent associations between TG/HDL-C ratio quartiles, waist circumstance (WC) waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), mean atrial pressure (MAP), and CKD prevalence was analyzed by using logistic regression models. Analyses of the areas under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were performed to determine the accuracy of MS risk factors in predicting CKD. A dose-response manner was observed for the prevalence of CKD and measurements of MS risk factors, showing increases from the lowest to the highest quartile of the TG/HDL-C ratio. Males and females in the highest TG/HDL-C ratio quartile (>2.76) had a 1.4-fold and 1.74-fold greater risk of CKD than those in the lowest quartile (≤1.04), independent of confounding factors. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) had the highest AUC for predicting CKD among MS risk factors. The TG/HDL-C ratio was an independent risk factor for CKD, but it showed no superiority over MAP in predicting CKD. A TG/HDL-C ratio ≥2.76 may be useful in clinical practice to detect subjects with worsened cardiometabolic profile who need monitoring to prevent CKD. TG/HDL-C ratio is an independent risk factor for CKD in adults aged 18-50 years. MAP was the most powerful predictor over other MS risk factors in predicting CKD. However, longitudinal and comparative studies are required to demonstrate the predictive value of TG/HDL-C on the onset and progression of CKD over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Performance map of a cluster detection test using extended power

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Conventional power studies possess limited ability to assess the performance of cluster detection tests. In particular, they cannot evaluate the accuracy of the cluster location, which is essential in such assessments. Furthermore, they usually estimate power for one or a few particular alternative hypotheses and thus cannot assess performance over an entire region. Takahashi and Tango developed the concept of extended power that indicates both the rate of null hypothesis rejection and the accuracy of the cluster location. We propose a systematic assessment method, using here extended power, to produce a map showing the performance of cluster detection tests over an entire region. Methods To explore the behavior of a cluster detection test on identical cluster types at any possible location, we successively applied four different spatial and epidemiological parameters. These parameters determined four cluster collections, each covering the entire study region. We simulated 1,000 datasets for each cluster and analyzed them with Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic. From the area under the extended power curve, we constructed a map for each parameter set showing the performance of the test across the entire region. Results Consistent with previous studies, the performance of the spatial scan statistic increased with the baseline incidence of disease, the size of the at-risk population and the strength of the cluster (i.e., the relative risk). Performance was heterogeneous, however, even for very similar clusters (i.e., similar with respect to the aforementioned factors), suggesting the influence of other factors. Conclusions The area under the extended power curve is a single measure of performance and, although needing further exploration, it is suitable to conduct a systematic spatial evaluation of performance. The performance map we propose enables epidemiologists to assess cluster detection tests across an entire study region. PMID:24156765

Serosal Laceration During Firing of Powered Linear Stapler Is a Predictor of Staple Malformation.

PubMed

Matsuzawa, Fumihiko; Homma, Shigenori; Yoshida, Tadashi; Konishi, Yuji; Shibasaki, Susumu; Ishikawa, Takahisa; Kawamura, Hideki; Takahashi, Norihiko; Iijima, Hiroaki; Taketomi, Akinobu

2017-12-01

Although several types of staplers have been developed, staple-line leaks have been a great problem in gastrointestinal surgery. Powered linear staplers were recently developed to further reduce the risk of tissue trauma during laparoscopic surgery. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that predict staple malformation and determine the effect of precompression and slow firing on the staple formation of this novel powered stapling method. Porcine stomachs were divided using an endoscopic powered linear stapler with gold reloads. We divided the specimens into 9 groups according to the precompression time (0/60/180 seconds) and firing time (0/60/180 seconds). The occurrence and length of laceration and the shape of the staples were evaluated. We examined the factors influencing successful stapling and investigated the key factors for staple malformation. Precompression significantly decreased the occurrence and length of serosal laceration. Precompression and slow firing significantly improved the optimal stapling formation rate. Univariate analysis showed that the precompression time (0 seconds), firing time (0 seconds), and presence of serosal laceration were significantly associated with a low optimal formation rate. Multivariate analysis showed that these three factors were associated independently with low optimal formation rate and that the presence of serosal laceration was the only factor that could be detected during the stapling procedure. We have shown that serosal laceration is a predictor of staple malformation and demonstrated the importance of precompression and slow stapling when using the powered stapling method.

Feasibility of using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health Core Set for evaluation of fall-related risk factors in acute rehabilitation settings.

PubMed

Huang, Shih W; Lin, Li F; Chou, Lin C; Wu, Mei J; Liao, Chun D; Liou, Tsan H

2016-04-01

Previously, we reported the use of an International Classification of Functioning (ICF) core set that can provide a holistic framework for evaluating the risk factors of falls; however, data on the feasibility of applying this core set are lacking. To investigate the feasibility of applying the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set in the case of patients in an acute-rehabilitation setting. A cross-sectional and descriptive correlational design. Acute-rehabilitation ward. A total of 273 patients who experienced fall at acute-rehabilitation ward. The data on falls were collected from the hospital's Nursing Information System (NIS) and the fall-reporting system (Adverse Event Reporting System, AERS) between 2010 and 2013. The relationship of both systems to the fall-related ICF core set was analyzed to assess the feasibility of their clinical application. We evaluated the feasibility of using the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set by using the frequency and the percentage of the fall patients in of the listed categories. The fall-related ICF risk-factor core set category b735 (muscle tone functions) exhibited a high feasibility (85.95%) for clinical application, and the category b730 (muscle power functions) covered 77.11% of the patients. The feasibility of application of the category d410 (change basic body position) was also high in the case of all fall patients (81.69%). In the acute-rehabilitation setting, the feasibility of application of the fall-related ICF risk-factor core set is high. The fall-related ICF risk-factor core set can help multidisciplinary teams develop fall-prevention strategies in acute rehabilitation wards.

The Importance of Socio-Economic Versus Environmental Risk Factors for Reported Dengue Cases in Java, Indonesia

PubMed Central

Chase-Topping, Margo; Rainey, Stephanie M.; McFarlane, Melanie; Schnettler, Esther; Biek, Roman; Kohl, Alain

2016-01-01

Background Dengue is a major mosquito-borne viral disease and an important public health problem. Identifying which factors are important determinants in the risk of dengue infection is critical in supporting and guiding preventive measures. In South-East Asia, half of all reported fatal infections are recorded in Indonesia, yet little is known about the epidemiology of dengue in this country. Methodology/Principal findings Hospital-reported dengue cases in Banyumas regency, Central Java were examined to build Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal models assessing the influence of climatic, demographic and socio-economic factors on the risk of dengue infection. A socio-economic factor linking employment type and economic status was the most influential on the risk of dengue infection in the Regency. Other factors such as access to healthcare facilities and night-time temperature were also found to be associated with higher risk of reported dengue infection but had limited explanatory power. Conclusions/Significance Our data suggest that dengue infections are triggered by indoor transmission events linked to socio-economic factors (employment type, economic status). Preventive measures in this area should therefore target also specific environments such as schools and work areas to attempt and reduce dengue burden in this community. Although our analysis did not account for factors such as variations in immunity which need further investigation, this study can advise preventive measures in areas with similar patterns of reported dengue cases and environment. PMID:27603137

Novel Risk Engine for Diabetes Progression and Mortality in USA: Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO).

PubMed

Shao, Hui; Fonseca, Vivian; Stoecker, Charles; Liu, Shuqian; Shi, Lizheng

2018-05-03

There is an urgent need to update diabetes prediction, which has relied on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) that dates back to 1970 s' European populations. The objective of this study was to develop a risk engine with multiple risk equations using a recent patient cohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus reflective of the US population. A total of 17 risk equations for predicting diabetes-related microvascular and macrovascular events, hypoglycemia, mortality, and progression of diabetes risk factors were estimated using the data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial (n = 10,251). Internal and external validation processes were used to assess performance of the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) risk engine. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of risk factors on mortality at the population level. The BRAVO risk engine added several risk factors including severe hypoglycemia and common US racial/ethnicity categories compared with the UKPDS risk engine. The BRAVO risk engine also modeled mortality escalation associated with intensive glycemic control (i.e., glycosylated hemoglobin < 6.5%). External validation showed a good prediction power on 28 endpoints observed from other clinical trials (slope = 1.071, R 2  = 0.86). The BRAVO risk engine for the US diabetes cohort provides an alternative to the UKPDS risk engine. It can be applied to assist clinical and policy decision making such as cost-effective resource allocation in USA.

Comparisons of predictors for typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Kolkata, India

PubMed Central

Sur, Dipika; Ali, Mohammad; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Manna, Byomkesh; Deen, Jacqueline L; Acosta, Camilo J; Clemens, John D; Bhattacharya, Sujit K

2007-01-01

Background: Exposure of the individual to contaminated food or water correlates closely with the risk for enteric fever. Since public health interventions such as water improvement or vaccination campaigns are implemented for groups of individuals we were interested whether risk factors not only for the individual but for households, neighbourhoods and larger areas can be recognised? Methods: We conducted a large enteric fever surveillance study and analyzed factors which correlate with enteric fever on an individual level and factors associated with high and low risk areas with enteric fever incidence. Individual level data were linked to a population based geographic information systems. Individual and household level variables were fitted in Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) with the logit link function to take into account the likelihood that household factors correlated within household members. Results: Over a 12-month period 80 typhoid fever cases and 47 paratyphoid fever cases were detected among 56,946 residents in two bustees (slums) of Kolkata, India. The incidence of paratyphoid fever was lower (0.8/1000/year), and the mean age of paratyphoid patients was older (17.1 years) than for typhoid fever (incidence 1.4/1000/year, mean age 14.7 years). Residents in areas with a high risk for typhoid fever had lower literacy rates and economic status, bigger household size, and resided closer to waterbodies and study treatment centers than residents in low risk areas. Conclusion: There was a close correlation between the characteristics detected based on individual cases and characteristics associated with high incidence areas. Because the comparison of risk factors of populations living in high versus low risk areas is statistically very powerful this methodology holds promise to detect risk factors associated with diseases using geographic information systems. PMID:17935611

Relationship Factors and Condom Use among Women with a History of Intimate Partner Violence

PubMed Central

McGrane Minton, Heather A.; Mittal, Mona; Elder, Heather; Carey, Michael P.

2016-01-01

Women who experience intimate partner violence (IPV) are at increased risk for HIV infection. To further the understanding of the dyadic factors that impact condom use among women, we investigated the impact of three relationship factors (i.e., power, fear, and dependence) on the association between HIV-related information, motivation, and behavioral skills [constructs from the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model] and condom use among abused women. Data from 133 urban, low-income women recruited from several community-based agencies (e.g., domestic violence agencies, women’s health organizations, hospitals, Department of Health and Human Services, and Family Court) showed that these women experienced high levels of IPV and that relationship power, fear of abuse, and partner dependence were all associated with condom use. Multivariable models revealed that fear of abuse and partner dependence moderated that association between IMB constructs and condom use but relationship power did not. Results highlight the critical need to incorporate strategies to address relationship factors in HIV prevention programs with abused women. PMID:26354519

Operation of Power Grids with High Penetration of Wind Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Awami, Ali Taleb

The integration of wind power into the power grid poses many challenges due to its highly uncertain nature. This dissertation involves two main components related to the operation of power grids with high penetration of wind energy: wind-thermal stochastic dispatch and wind-thermal coordinated bidding in short-term electricity markets. In the first part, a stochastic dispatch (SD) algorithm is proposed that takes into account the stochastic nature of the wind power output. The uncertainty associated with wind power output given the forecast is characterized using conditional probability density functions (CPDF). Several functions are examined to characterize wind uncertainty including Beta, Weibull, Extreme Value, Generalized Extreme Value, and Mixed Gaussian distributions. The unique characteristics of the Mixed Gaussian distribution are then utilized to facilitate the speed of convergence of the SD algorithm. A case study is carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Then, the SD algorithm is extended to simultaneously optimize the system operating costs and emissions. A modified multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is suggested to identify the Pareto-optimal solutions defined by the two conflicting objectives. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the effect of changing load level and imbalance cost factors on the Pareto front. In the second part of this dissertation, coordinated trading of wind and thermal energy is proposed to mitigate risks due to those uncertainties. The problem of wind-thermal coordinated trading is formulated as a mixed-integer stochastic linear program. The objective is to obtain the optimal tradeoff bidding strategy that maximizes the total expected profits while controlling trading risks. For risk control, a weighted term of the conditional value at risk (CVaR) is included in the objective function. The CVaR aims to maximize the expected profits of the least profitable scenarios, thus improving trading risk control. A case study comparing coordinated with uncoordinated bidding strategies depending on the trader's risk attitude is included. Simulation results show that coordinated bidding can improve the expected profits while significantly improving the CVaR.

Power source selection for neutral particle beam systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverman, Sidney W.; Chi, John W. H.; Hill, Gregory

Space based neutral particle beams (NPB) are being considered for use as an SDI weapon as well as a mid-course discriminator. These systems require a radio frequency (RF) power source. Five types of amplifiers were considered for the RF power source: the klystron, the klystrode, the tetrode, the cross field amplifier, and the solid state amplifier. A number of different types of power source systems (nuclear and non-nuclear) were considered for integration with these amplifiers. The most attractive amplifier power system concepts were identified through comparative evaluations that took into account the total masses of integrated amplifier power source systems as well as a number of other factors that consisted of development cost, technology risk, vulnerability, survivability, reliability, and impacts on spacecraft stabilization. These concepts are described and conclusions drawn.

A model to explain at-risk/problem gambling among male and female adolescents: gender similarities and differences.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Chiesi, Francesca; Primi, Caterina

2013-02-01

This study aimed at testing a model in which cognitive, dispositional, and social factors were integrated into a single perspective as predictors of gambling behavior. We also aimed at providing further evidence of gender differences related to adolescent gambling. Participants were 994 Italian adolescents (64% Males; Mean age = 16.57). Hierarchical logistic regressions attested the predictive power of the considered factors on at-risk/problem gambling - measured by administering the South Oaks Gambling Screen-Revised for Adolescents (SOGS-RA) - in both boys and girls. Sensation seeking and superstitious thinking were consistent predictors across gender, while probabilistic reasoning ability, the perception of the economic profitability of gambling, and peer gambling behavior were found to be predictors only among male adolescents, whereas parental gambling behavior had a predictive power in female adolescents. Findings are discussed referring to practical implications for preventive efforts toward adolescents' gambling problems. Copyright © 2012 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a risk assessment tool for projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for Chinese women.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Gao, Ying; Battsend, Munkhzul; Chen, Kexin; Lu, Wenli; Wang, Yaogang

2014-11-01

The optimal approach regarding breast cancer screening for Chinese women is unclear due to the relative low incidence rate. A risk assessment tool may be useful for selection of high-risk subsets of population for mammography screening in low-incidence and resource-limited developing country. The odd ratios for six main risk factors of breast cancer were pooled by review manager after a systematic research of literature. Health risk appraisal (HRA) model was developed to predict an individual's risk of developing breast cancer in the next 5 years from current age. The performance of this HRA model was assessed based on a first-round screening database. Estimated risk of breast cancer increased with age. Increases in the 5-year risk of developing breast cancer were found with the existence of any of included risk factors. When individuals who had risk above median risk (3.3‰) were selected from the validation database, the sensitivity is 60.0% and the specificity is 47.8%. The unweighted area under the curve (AUC) was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.50-0.78). The risk-prediction model reported in this article is based on a combination of risk factors and shows good overall predictive power, but it is still weak at predicting which particular women will develop the disease. It would be very helpful for the improvement of a current model if more population-based prospective follow-up studies were used for the validation.

Probabilistic Physics-Based Risk Tools Used to Analyze the International Space Station Electrical Power System Output

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Bhogila M.; Hoge, Peter A.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the methods employed to apply probabilistic modeling techniques to the International Space Station (ISS) power system. These techniques were used to quantify the probabilistic variation in the power output, also called the response variable, due to variations (uncertainties) associated with knowledge of the influencing factors called the random variables. These uncertainties can be due to unknown environmental conditions, variation in the performance of electrical power system components or sensor tolerances. Uncertainties in these variables, cause corresponding variations in the power output, but the magnitude of that effect varies with the ISS operating conditions, e.g. whether or not the solar panels are actively tracking the sun. Therefore, it is important to quantify the influence of these uncertainties on the power output for optimizing the power available for experiments.

Association of Physical Inactivity, Weight, Smoking, and Prior Injury on Physical Performance in a Military Setting

PubMed Central

Teyhen, Deydre S.; Rhon, Daniel I.; Butler, Robert J.; Shaffer, Scott W.; Goffar, Stephen L.; McMillian, Danny J.; Boyles, Robert E.; Kiesel, Kyle B.; Plisky, Phillip J.

2016-01-01

Context: Although inactivity, being overweight, smoking, and a history of injury are identified as risk factors for poor health and injury, few authors have examined their association on physical performance. Young adults may be more likely to adopt healthier lifestyles if they understand the effect of health behaviors on performance. Objective: To determine the association of being overweight, smoking, inactivity, and a history of injury with physical performance. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Military population. Patients or Other Participants: Active-duty service members (N = 1466; 1380 men, 86 women; age = 24.7 ± 5.0 years; body mass index = 26.7 ± 3.4 kg/m2). Main Outcome Measure(s): Participants performed 8 measures (the triple-crossover hop for distance, the 6-m timed-hop test, the Functional Movement Screen, the Lower Quarter Y-Balance Test, the Upper Quarter Y-Balance Test, and the 3-event Army Physical Fitness Test) for evaluation of endurance, strength, muscular endurance, power, agility, balance, and motor control. Participants were categorized based on the number of health risk factors present. Using an analysis of covariance, we assessed the relationship between risk factors and physical performance with age and sex as covariates. Results: Compared with those who had no risk factors (27.9% of men, 34.9% of women), physical performance was worse in those who had 1, 2, or 3 to 4 risk factors present by 4.3%, 6.7%, and 10.3%, respectively. Decrements in performance for those with 3 to 4 risk factors ranged from 3.3% to 14.4%. Conclusions: An unhealthy lifestyle habit or a history of injury was negatively associated with physical performance. Physical performance decrements were associated with the number of risk factors present. Understanding how risk factors contribute to decreased physical performance may enable clinicians to improve compliance with injury-prevention programs in occupational settings in which a young and relatively healthy workforce may be more concerned about performance than health. PMID:27690529

Association of Physical Inactivity, Weight, Smoking, and Prior Injury on Physical Performance in a Military Setting.

PubMed

Teyhen, Deydre S; Rhon, Daniel I; Butler, Robert J; Shaffer, Scott W; Goffar, Stephen L; McMillian, Danny J; Boyles, Robert E; Kiesel, Kyle B; Plisky, Phillip J

2016-11-01

 Although inactivity, being overweight, smoking, and a history of injury are identified as risk factors for poor health and injury, few authors have examined their association on physical performance. Young adults may be more likely to adopt healthier lifestyles if they understand the effect of health behaviors on performance.  To determine the association of being overweight, smoking, inactivity, and a history of injury with physical performance.  Cross-sectional study.  Military population.  Active-duty service members (N = 1466; 1380 men, 86 women; age = 24.7 ± 5.0 years; body mass index = 26.7 ± 3.4 kg/m 2 ).  Participants performed 8 measures (the triple-crossover hop for distance, the 6-m timed-hop test, the Functional Movement Screen, the Lower Quarter Y-Balance Test, the Upper Quarter Y-Balance Test, and the 3-event Army Physical Fitness Test) for evaluation of endurance, strength, muscular endurance, power, agility, balance, and motor control. Participants were categorized based on the number of health risk factors present. Using an analysis of covariance, we assessed the relationship between risk factors and physical performance with age and sex as covariates.  Compared with those who had no risk factors (27.9% of men, 34.9% of women), physical performance was worse in those who had 1, 2, or 3 to 4 risk factors present by 4.3%, 6.7%, and 10.3%, respectively. Decrements in performance for those with 3 to 4 risk factors ranged from 3.3% to 14.4%.  An unhealthy lifestyle habit or a history of injury was negatively associated with physical performance. Physical performance decrements were associated with the number of risk factors present. Understanding how risk factors contribute to decreased physical performance may enable clinicians to improve compliance with injury-prevention programs in occupational settings in which a young and relatively healthy workforce may be more concerned about performance than health.

Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review.

PubMed

Takebayashi, Yoshitake; Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

2017-10-27

The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables.

Gene-environment studies: any advantage over environmental studies?

PubMed

Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo; Hemminki, Kari

2007-07-01

Gene-environment studies have been motivated by the likely existence of prevalent low-risk genes that interact with common environmental exposures. The present study assessed the statistical advantage of the simultaneous consideration of genes and environment to investigate the effect of environmental risk factors on disease. In particular, we contemplated the possibility that several genes modulate the environmental effect. Environmental exposures, genotypes and phenotypes were simulated according to a wide range of parameter settings. Different models of gene-gene-environment interaction were considered. For each parameter combination, we estimated the probability of detecting the main environmental effect, the power to identify the gene-environment interaction and the frequency of environmentally affected individuals at which environmental and gene-environment studies show the same statistical power. The proportion of cases in the population attributable to the modeled risk factors was also calculated. Our data indicate that environmental exposures with weak effects may account for a significant proportion of the population prevalence of the disease. A general result was that, if the environmental effect was restricted to rare genotypes, the power to detect the gene-environment interaction was higher than the power to identify the main environmental effect. In other words, when few individuals contribute to the overall environmental effect, individual contributions are large and result in easily identifiable gene-environment interactions. Moreover, when multiple genes interacted with the environment, the statistical benefit of gene-environment studies was limited to those studies that included major contributors to the gene-environment interaction. The advantage of gene-environment over plain environmental studies also depends on the inheritance mode of the involved genes, on the study design and, to some extend, on the disease prevalence.

Information security of power enterprises of North-Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sushko, O. P.

2018-05-01

The role of information technologies in providing technological security for energy enterprises is a component of the economic security for the northern Arctic region in general. Applying instruments and methods of information protection modelling of the energy enterprises' business process in the northern Arctic region (such as Arkhenergo and Komienergo), the authors analysed and identified most frequent risks of information security. With the analytic hierarchy process based on weighting factor estimations, information risks of energy enterprises' technological processes were ranked. The economic estimation of the information security within an energy enterprise considers weighting factor-adjusted variables (risks). Investments in information security systems of energy enterprises in the northern Arctic region are related to necessary security elements installation; current operating expenses on business process protection systems become materialized economic damage.

The power of special friends: addressing the risk of child abuse through mentoring.

PubMed

Vertermark, P; Russell, J; Mulvey, N

1995-01-01

Since 1989 two Saint Paul, Minnesota agencies have carried on a collaborative effort called the Befriender Volunteer Project. This project is designed to address the risk factors associated with child abuse which are often inherent in families headed by an adolescent. Between November of 1993 and October of 1994 a self-study of this project was conducted. An important objective of this study was to determine how the positive elements of a successful relationship affected the risk factors in these young families. Consistent with what we know about the effects of successful helping relationships, most significant improvements in young mothers were found in the areas of hopefulness, self-esteem, and parenting skills. Of significant note was the observation of the various ways the Befriender/young mother relationship enhanced the young mothers' potential for breaking the generational cycle of risk for child abuse and neglect.

Factors that influence the radiofrequency power output of GSM mobile phones.

PubMed

Erdreich, Linda S; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Scrafford, Carolyn G; Barraj, Leila; McNeely, Mark; Shum, Mona; Sheppard, Asher R; Kelsh, Michael

2007-08-01

Epidemiological studies of mobile phone use and risk of brain cancer have relied on self-reported use, years as a subscriber, and billing records as exposure surrogates without addressing the level of radiofrequency (RF) power output. The objective of this study was to measure environmental, behavioral and engineering factors affecting the RF power output of GSM mobile phones during operation. We estimated the RF-field exposure of volunteer subjects who made mobile phone calls using software-modified phones (SMPs) that recorded output power settings. Subjects recruited from three geographic areas in the U.S. were instructed to log information (place, time, etc.) for each call made and received during a 5-day period. The largest factor affecting energy output was study area, followed by user movement and location (inside or outside), use of a hands-free device, and urbanicity, although the two latter factors accounted for trivial parts of overall variance. Although some highly statistically significant differences were identified, the effects on average energy output rate were usually less than 50% and were generally comparable to the standard deviation. These results provide information applicable to improving the precision of exposure metrics for epidemiological studies of GSM mobile phones and may have broader application for other mobile phone systems and geographic locations.

Body fat distribution in the Finnish population: environmental determinants and predictive power for cardiovascular risk factor levels.

PubMed Central

Marti, B; Tuomilehto, J; Salomaa, V; Kartovaara, L; Korhonen, H J; Pietinen, P

1991-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to examine (1) whether health habits are associated with body fat distribution, as measured by the waist/hip girth ratio, and (2) to what extent environmental factors, including anthropometric characteristics, explain the variability in levels of cardiovascular risk factors. DESIGN--The study was a population based cross sectional survey, conducted in the spring of 1987 as a part of an international research project on cardiovascular epidemiology. SETTING--The survey was conducted in three geographical areas of eastern and south western Finland. SUBJECTS--2526 men and 2756 women aged 25-64 years took part in the study, corresponding to a survey participation rate of 82%. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--In men, waist/hip ratio showed stronger associations with exercise (Pearson's r = -0.24), resting heart rate (r = 0.10), alcohol consumption (r = 0.07), smoking (r = 0.05), and education (r = -0.23) than did body mass index. Jointly, exercise, resting heart rate, alcohol consumption, education, and age explained 18% of variance in male waist/hip ratio, but only 9% of variance in male body mass index. In women, environmental factors were more predictive for body mass index than for waist/hip ratio, with age and education being the strongest determinants. Waist/hip ratio and body mass index were approximately equally strong predictors of cardiovascular risk factor levels. The additional predictive power of waist/hip ratio over and above body mass index was tested in a hierarchical, stepwise regression. In this conservative type of analysis the increase in explained variance uniquely attributable to waist/hip ratio was 2-3% for female and 1-2% for male lipoprotein levels, and less than 0.5% for female and 0-2% for male blood pressure values. CONCLUSIONS--The distribution of abdominal obesity in Finland is significantly influenced by health habits and sociodemographic factors in both men and women. This in turn is obviously one reason for the relatively small "independent" effect of body fat distribution on cardiovascular risk factor levels. PMID:2072072

Personality patterns predict the risk of antisocial behavior in Spanish-speaking adolescents.

PubMed

Alcázar-Córcoles, Miguel A; Verdejo-García, Antonio; Bouso-Sáiz, José C; Revuelta-Menéndez, Javier; Ramírez-Lira, Ezequiel

2017-05-01

There is a renewed interest in incorporating personality variables in criminology theories in order to build models able to integrate personality variables and biological factors with psychosocial and sociocultural factors. The aim of this article is the assessment of personality dimensions that contribute to the prediction of antisocial behavior in adolescents. For this purpose, a sample of adolescents from El Salvador, Mexico, and Spain was obtained. The sample consisted of 1035 participants with a mean age of 16.2. There were 450 adolescents from a forensic population (those who committed a crime) and 585 adolescents from the normal population (no crime committed). All of participants answered personality tests about neuroticism, extraversion, psychoticism, sensation seeking, impulsivity, and violence risk. Principal component analysis of the data identified two independent factors: (i) the disinhibited behavior pattern (PDC), formed by the dimensions of neuroticism, psychoticism, impulsivity and risk of violence; and (ii) the extrovert behavior pattern (PEC), formed by the dimensions of sensation risk and extraversion. Both patterns significantly contributed to the prediction of adolescent antisocial behavior in a logistic regression model which properly classifies a global percentage of 81.9%, 86.8% for non-offense and 72.5% for offense behavior. The classification power of regression equations allows making very satisfactory predictions about adolescent offense commission. Educational level has been classified as a protective factor, while age and gender (male) have been classified as risk factors.

Infestation by Triatoma pallidipennis (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) is associated with housing characteristics in rural Mexico.

PubMed

Cohen, Justin M; Wilson, Mark L; Cruz-Celis, Adriana; Ordoñez, Rosalinda; Ramsey, Janine M

2006-11-01

Long-term control of Chagas disease requires not only interruption of the human transmission cycle of Trypanosoma cruzi Schyzotrypanum, Chagas, 1909 by controlling its domestic triatomine vectors but also surveillance to prevent reinfestation of residences from sylvatic or persistent peridomestic populations. Although a number of potential risk factors for infestation have been implicated in previous studies, the explanatory power of resulting models has been low. Two years after cessation of triatomine vector control efforts in the town of Chalcatzingo, Morelos, 78 environmental, socioecological, and spatial variables were analyzed for association with infestation by Triatoma pallidipennis Stal 1872 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae), the principal vector of T. cruzi. We studied 712 residences in this rural community to identify specific intradomestic and peridomestic risk factors that predicted infestation with T. pallidipennis. From numerous characteristics that were identified as correlated with infestation, we derived multivariate logistic regression models to predict residences that were more or less likely to be infested with T. pallidipennis. The most important risk factors for infestation included measurements of house age, upkeep, and spatial location in the town. The effects of certain risk factors on infestation were found to be modified by spatial characteristics of residences. The results of this study provide new information regarding risk factors for infestation by T. pallidipennis that may aid in designing sustainable disease control programs in rural Mexico.

The fragility of omics risk and benefit perceptions.

PubMed

Börner, Franziska U; Schütz, Holger; Wiedemann, Peter

2011-03-25

How do individuals judge the risks and benefits of toxicogenomics, an emerging field of research which is completely unfamiliar to them? The hypothesis is that individuals' perceptions of the risks and benefits of toxicogenomics are fragile and can by influenced by different issues and context framings as a technology. The researchers expected that the effects on risk and benefit judgements would differ between lay individuals and experts in toxicogenomics. A 2×2×2 experiment that encompassed three factors was conducted. The first factor, issue framing incorporated the field of application for the technology (therapy vs. diagnosis setting). The second factor, context framing included organisations and institutions that would profit from the technology (companies vs. regulatory agencies) and the third factor encompasses the quality of individuals' level of knowledge, for example lay vs. expert knowledge. Research results suggest the differential power of framing effects. It seems that the clues provided by context frames - but not by issue frames - are able to influence the ways in which lay people and experts process information. The findings are interpreted in the line of the fuzzy trace theory that predicts reliance on fuzzy gist representations formed by stereotypes on a wide range of judgement problem including risk and benefit perceptions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The risk assessment score in acute whiplash injury predicts outcome and reflects biopsychosocial factors.

PubMed

Kasch, Helge; Qerama, Erisela; Kongsted, Alice; Bach, Flemming W; Bendix, Tom; Jensen, Troels S

2011-12-01

One-year prospective study of 141 acute whiplash patients (WLP) and 40 acute ankle-injured controls. This study investigates a priori determined potential risk factors to develop a risk assessment tool, for which the expediency was examined. The whiplash-associated disorders (WAD) grading system that emerged from The Quebec Task-Force-on-Whiplash has been of limited value for predicting work-related recovery and for explaining biopsychosocial disability after whiplash and new predictive factors, for example, risk criteria that comprehensively differentiate acute WLP in a biopsychosocial manner are needed. Consecutively, 141 acute WLP and 40 ankle-injured recruited from emergency units were examined after 1 week, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months obtaining neck/head visual analog scale score, number of nonpainful complaints, epidemiological, social, psychological data and neurological examination, active neck mobility, and furthermore muscle tenderness and pain response, and strength and duration of neck muscles. Risk factors derived (reduced cervical range of motion, intense neck pain/headache, multiple nonpain complaints) were applied in a risk assessment score and divided into seven risk strata. A receiver operating characteristics curve for the Risk Assessment Score and 1-year work disability showed an area of 0.90. Risk strata and number of sick days showed a log-linear relationship. In stratum 1 full recovery was encountered, but for high-risk patients in stratum 6 only 50% and 7 only 20% had returned to work after 1 year (P < 5.4 × 10). Strength measures, psychophysical pain measurements, and psychological and social data (reported elsewhere) showed significant relation to risk strata. The Risk Assessment score is suggested as a valuable tool for grading WLP early after injury. It has reasonable screening power for encountering work disability and reflects the biopsychosocial nature of whiplash injuries.

Phrenic nerve injury after radiofrequency ablation of lung tumors: retrospective evaluation of the incidence and risk factors.

PubMed

Matsui, Yusuke; Hiraki, Takao; Gobara, Hideo; Uka, Mayu; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Tada, Akihiro; Toyooka, Shinichi; Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu; Mimura, Hidefumi; Kanazawa, Susumu

2012-06-01

To retrospectively investigate the incidence of and risk factors for phrenic nerve injury after radiofrequency (RF) ablation of lung tumors. The study included 814 RF ablation procedures of lung tumors. To evaluate the development of phrenic nerve injury, chest radiographs obtained before and after the procedure were examined. Phrenic nerve injury was assumed to have developed if the diaphragmatic level was elevated after the procedure. To identify risk factors for phrenic nerve injury, multiple variables were compared between cases of phrenic nerve injury and randomly selected controls by using univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis was then performed to identify independent risk factors. Evaluation of phrenic nerve injury from chest radiographs was possible after 786 procedures. Evidence of phrenic nerve injury developed after 10 cases (1.3%). Univariate analysis revealed that larger tumor size (≥ 20 mm; P = .014), proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor (< 10 mm; P < .001), the use of larger electrodes (array diameter or noninsulated tip length ≥ 3 cm; P = .001), and higher maximum power applied during ablation (≥ 100 W; P < .001) were significantly associated with the development of phrenic nerve injury. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor (< 10 mm; P < .001) was a significant independent risk factor. The incidence of phrenic nerve injury after RF ablation was 1.3%. The proximity of the phrenic nerve to the tumor was an independent risk factor for phrenic nerve injury. Copyright © 2012 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for, and prevention of, shoulder injuries in overhead sports: a systematic review with best-evidence synthesis.

PubMed

Asker, Martin; Brooke, Hannah L; Waldén, Markus; Tranaeus, Ulrika; Johansson, Fredrik; Skillgate, Eva; Holm, Lena W

2018-03-26

To assess the evidence for risk factors and prevention measures for shoulder injuries in overhead sports. Systematic review with best-evidence synthesis. Medline (Ovid), PubMed (complementary search), Embase (Elsevier), Cochrane (Wiley), SPORTDiscus (Ebsco) and Web of Science Core Collection (Thomson Reuters), from 1 January 1990 to 15 May 2017. Randomised controlled trials, cohort studies and case-control studies on risk factors or prevention measures for shoulder injuries in overhead sports. The eligible studies were quality assessed using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network criteria. Of 4778 studies identified, 38 were eligible for quality review and 17 met the quality criteria to be included in the evidence synthesis. One additional quality study presented a shoulder injury prevention programme. Most studies focused on baseball, lacrosse or volleyball (n=13). The risk factors examined included participation level (competition vs training) (n=10), sex (n=4), biomechanics (n=2) and external workload (n=2). The evidence for all risk factors was limited or conflicting. The effect of the prevention programme within the subgroup of uninjured players at baseline was modest and possibly lacked statistical power. All investigated potential risk factors for shoulder injury in overhead sports had limited evidence, and most were non-modifiable (eg, sex). There is also limited evidence for the effect of shoulder injury prevention measures in overhead sports. CRD42015026850. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk Factors for Infection After Shoulder Arthroscopy in a Large Medicare Population.

PubMed

Cancienne, Jourdan M; Brockmeier, Stephen F; Carson, Eric W; Werner, Brian C

2018-03-01

Shoulder arthroscopy is well established as a highly effective and safe procedure for the treatment for several shoulder disorders and is associated with an exceedingly low risk of infectious complications. Few data exist regarding risk factors for infection after shoulder arthroscopy, as previous studies were not adequately powered to evaluate for infection. To determine patient-related risk factors for infection after shoulder arthroscopy by using a large insurance database. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. The PearlDiver patient records database was used to query the 100% Medicare Standard Analytic Files from 2005 to 2014 for patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy. Patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy for a diagnosis of infection or with a history of prior infection were excluded. Postoperative infection within 90 days postoperatively was then assessed with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for a diagnosis of postoperative infection or septic shoulder arthritis or a procedure for these indications. A multivariate binomial logistic regression analysis was then utilized to evaluate the use of an intraoperative steroid injection, as well as numerous patient-related risk factors for postoperative infection. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated for each risk factor, with P < .05 considered statistically significant. A total of 530,754 patients met all inclusion and exclusion criteria. There were 1409 infections within 90 days postoperatively (0.26%). Revision shoulder arthroscopy was the most significant risk factor for infection (OR, 3.25; 95% CI, 2.7-4.0; P < .0001). Intraoperative steroid injection was also an independent risk factor for postoperative infection (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.2-1.9; P = .002). There were also numerous independent patient-related risk factors for infection, the most significant of which were chronic anemia (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.4-1.8; P < .0001), malnutrition (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7; P = .001), male sex (OR, 2.71; 95% CI, 2.4-3.1; P < .0001), morbid obesity (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.2-1.6; P < .0001), and depression (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5; P < .0001). Intraoperative steroid injection was a significant independent risk factor for postoperative infection after shoulder arthroscopy. There were also numerous significant patient-related risk factors for postoperative infection, including revision surgery, obesity, male sex, chronic anemia, malnutrition, depression, and alcohol use, among others.

What Happened to Our Environment and Mental Health as a Result of Hurricane Sandy?

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Lu, Yi; Justino, John; Dong, Guanghui; Lauper, Ursula

2016-06-01

This study describes findings of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on environmental factors including power outages, air quality, water quality, and weather factors and how these affected mental health during the hurricane. An ecological study was conducted at the county level to describe changes in environmental factors-especially power outages-and their relationships to emergency department (ED) visits for mental health problems by use of a Poisson regression model. We found that many environmental hazards occurred as co-exposures during Hurricane Sandy in addition to flooding. Mental health ED visits corresponded with the peak of maximum daily power blackouts, with a 3-day lag, and were positively associated with power blackouts in Bronx (prevalence ratio [PR]: 8.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-61.42) and Queens (PR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.05-5.82) counties. A possible dose-response relationship was found between the quantile of maximum blackout percentage and the risk of mental health in the Bronx. We found that multiple co-environmental hazards occurred during Hurricane Sandy, especially power blackouts that mediated this disaster's impacts. The effects of power outage on mental health had large geographic variations and were substantial, especially in communities with low sociodemographic status. These findings may provide new insights for future disaster response and preparedness efforts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:314-319).

Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiang; Zhao, Dekang; Wang, Yang; Shen, Jianjun; Mu, Wenping; Liu, Honglei

2017-11-01

Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.

The asset pricing model of musharakah factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Shahril; Omar, Mohd; Lazam, Norazliani Md

2015-02-01

The existing three-factor model developed by Fama and French for conventional investment was formulated based on risk-free rates element in which contradict with Shariah principles. We note that the underlying principles that govern Shariah investment were mutual risk and profit sharing between parties, the assurance of fairness for all and that transactions were based on an underlying asset. In addition, the three-factor model did not exclude stock that was not permissible by Shariah such as financial services based on riba (interest), gambling operator, manufacture or sale of non-halal products or related products and other activities deemed non-permissible according to Shariah. Our approach to construct the factor model for Shariah investment was based on the basic tenets of musharakah in tabulating the factors. We start by noting that Islamic stocks with similar characteristics should have similar returns and risks. This similarity between Islamic stocks was defined by the similarity of musharakah attributes such as business, management, profitability and capital. These attributes define factor exposures (or betas) to factors. The main takeaways were that musharakah attributes we chose had explain stock returns well in cross section and were significant in different market environments. The management factor seemed to be responsible for the general dynamics of the explanatory power.

Gross domestic product and health expenditure associated with incidence, 30-day fatality, and age at stroke onset: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sposato, Luciano A; Saposnik, Gustavo

2012-01-01

Differences in definitions of socioeconomic status and between study designs hinder their comparability across countries. We aimed to analyze the correlation between 3 widely used macrosocioeconomic status indicators and clinical outcomes. We selected population-based studies reporting incident stroke risk and/or 30-day case-fatality according to prespecified criteria. We used 3 macrosocioeconomic status indicators that are consistently defined by international agencies: per capita gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity, total health expenditures per capita at purchasing power parity, and unemployment rate. We examined the correlation of each macrosocioeconomic status indicator with incident risk of stroke, 30-day case-fatality, proportion of hemorrhagic strokes, and age at stroke onset. Twenty-three articles comprising 30 population-based studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Age-adjusted incident risk of stroke using the standardized World Health Organization World population was associated to lower per capita gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity (ρ=-0.661, P=0.027, R(2)=0.32) and total health expenditures per capita at purchasing power parity (ρ=-0.623, P=0.040, R(2)=0.26). Thirty-day case-fatality rates and proportion of hemorrhagic strokes were also related to lower per capita gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity and total health expenditures per capita at purchasing power parity. Moreover, stroke occurred at a younger age in populations with low per capita gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity and total health expenditures per capita at purchasing power parity. There was no correlation between unemployment rates and outcome measures. Lower per capita gross domestic product adjusted for purchasing power parity and total health expenditures per capita at purchasing power parity were associated with higher incident risk of stroke, higher case-fatality, a greater proportion of hemorrhagic strokes, and lower age at stroke onset. As a result, these macrosocioeconomic status indicators may be used as proxy measures of quality of primary prevention and acute care and considered as important factors for developing strategies aimed at improving worldwide stroke care.

Condom-use intentions and the influence of partner-related barriers among women at risk for HIV.

PubMed

Bonacquisti, Alexa; Geller, Pamela A

2013-12-01

To examine intentions to engage in condom use and potential partner-related barriers to condom use, including intimate partner violence (IPV), low levels of sexual relationship power and perceptions of monogamy, among women at risk for HIV. In the United States, women account for approximately one in four new HIV infections. Despite the effectiveness of consistent condom use, women often confront biological, cultural and psychosocial barriers that limit their ability to engage in condom-use. Cross-sectional, quantitative study. Participants (N = 90) were recruited from a domestic violence shelter, a domestic violence support organisation and an obstetrics/gynaecology clinic in Philadelphia, PA. Data were collected by questionnaires to assess women's condom-use intentions, actual condom-use behaviour, sexual partner risk factors, experience of IPV, level of sexual relationship power and perceptions of monogamy. Fifty-eight per cent of participants (n = 52) indicated a difference between their preference and intentions to use condoms vs. their actual use, with 62% (n = 32) using condoms less frequently than they would like. Significant differences in condom use emerged for women with low vs. high sexual relationship power and women who reported being in a monogamous relationship vs. those who did not. Of particular concern, a majority of these relationships were with high-risk partners, further increasing women's already elevated risk of acquiring HIV. Condom use is a multifaceted issue, particularly in sexual relationships involving power differentials and perceived monogamy. Condom use was complicated by women's own preferences, sexual relationship power differentials and by the perceived exclusivity of the relationship with their sexual partners. These findings have important implications for nurses as they are uniquely positioned to facilitate HIV risk reduction among their patients through the discussion of sexual health issues and barriers to negotiating condom use that women may confront. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing environmental factors associated with regional schistosomiasis prevalence in Anhui Province, Peoples' Republic of China using a geographical detector method.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Xia, Congcong; Li, Shizhu; Ward, Michael P; Luo, Can; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Zhang, Zhijie

2017-04-17

Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease caused by trematode worms belonging to genus Schistosoma, which is prevalent most of the developing world. Transmission of the disease is usually associated with multiple biological characteristics and social factors but also factors can play a role. Few studies have assessed the exact and interactive influence of each factor promoting schistosomiasis transmission. We used a series of different detectors (i.e., specific detector, risk detector, ecological detector and interaction detector) to evaluate separate and interactive effects of the environmental factors on schistosomiasis prevalence. Specifically, (i) specific detector quantifies the impact of a risk factor on an observed spatial disease pattern, which were ranked statistically by a value of Power of Determinate (PD) calculation; (ii) risk detector detects high risk areas of a disease on the condition that the study area is stratified by a potential risk factor; (iii) ecological detector explores whether a risk factor is more significant than another in controlling the spatial pattern of a disease; (iv) interaction detector probes whether two risk factors when taken together weaken or enhance one another, or whether they are independent in developing a disease. Infection data of schistosomiasis based on conventional surveys were obtained at the county level from the health authorities in Anhui Province, China and used in combination with information from Chinese weather stations and internationally available environmental data. The specific detector identified various factors of potential importance as follows: Proximity to Yangtze River (0.322) > Land cover (0.285) > sunshine hours (0.256) > population density (0.109) > altitude (0.090) > the normalized different vegetation index (NDVI) (0.077) > land surface temperature at daytime (LST day ) (0.007). The risk detector indicated that areas of schistosomiasis high risk were located within a buffer distance of 50 km from Yangtze River. The ecological detector disclosed that the factors investigated have significantly different effects. The interaction detector revealed that interaction between the factors enhanced their main effects in most cases. Proximity to Yangtze River had the strongest effect on schistosomiasis prevalence followed by land cover and sunshine hours, while the remaining factors had only weak influence. Interaction between factors played an even more important role in influencing schistosomiasis prevalence than each factor on its own. High risk regions influenced by strong interactions need to be targeted for disease control intervention.

Emergent risk factors associated with eyeball loss and ambulatory vision loss after globe injuries.

PubMed

Hyun Lee, Seung; Ahn, Jae Kyoun

2010-07-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors associated with eyeball loss and ambulatory vision loss on emergent examination of patients with ocular trauma. We reviewed the medical records of 1,875 patients hospitalized in a single tertiary referral center between January 2003 and December 2007. Emergent examinations included a history of trauma, elapsed time between injury and hospital arrival, visible intraocular tissues, and initial visual acuity (VA) using a penlight. The main outcome measures were ocular survival and ambulatory vision survival (>20/200) at 1 year after trauma using univariate and multivariate regression analysis. The ocular trauma scores were significantly higher in open globe injuries than in closed globe injuries (p < 0.01). In open globe injuries, initial VA less than light perception (LP) and a history of golf ball injury were the significant risk factors associated with eyeball loss. Elapsed time more than 12 hours and visible intraocular tissues were the significant risk factors associated with ambulatory vision loss. The most powerful predictor of eyeball loss and ambulatory vision loss was eyeball rupture. In closed globe injuries, there were no significant risk factors of eyeball loss, whereas initial vision less than LP and the presence of relative afferent pupillary defect were the significant risk factors associated with ambulatory vision loss. An initial VA less than LP using a penlight, a history of golf ball injury, and elapsed time more than 12 hours between ocular trauma and hospital arrival were associated with eyeball loss and ambulatory vision loss. Physicians should bear these factors in mind so that they can more effectively counsel patients with such injuries.

Self-reported stroke symptoms without a prior diagnosis of stroke or transient ischemic attack: a powerful new risk factor for stroke.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Dawn; Judd, Suzanne; Howard, Virginia J; McClure, Leslie; Safford, Monika M; Cushman, Mary; Rhodes, David; Howard, George

2011-11-01

Previously in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort, we found 18% of the stroke/transient ischemic attack-free study population reported ≥1 stroke symptom at baseline. We sought to evaluate the additional impact of these stroke symptoms on risk for subsequent stroke. REGARDS recruited 30,239 US blacks and whites, aged 45+ years in 2003 to 2007 who are being followed every 6 months for events. All stroke events are physician-verified; those with prior diagnosed stroke or transient ischemic attack are excluded from this analysis. At baseline, participants were asked 6 questions regarding stroke symptoms. Measured stroke risk factors were components of the Framingham Stroke Risk Score. After excluding those with prior stroke or missing data, there were 24,412 participants in this analysis with a median follow-up of 4.4 years. Participants were 39% black, 55% female, and had median age of 64 years. There were 381 physician-verified stroke events. The Framingham Stroke Risk Score explained 72.0% of stroke risk; individual components explained between 0.2% (left ventricular hypertrophy) and 5.7% (age+race) of stroke risk. After adjustment for Framingham Stroke Risk Score factors, stroke symptoms were significantly related to stroke risk: for each stroke symptom reported, the risk of stroke increased by 21% per symptom. Among participants without self-reported stroke or transient ischemic attack, prior stroke symptoms are highly predictive of future stroke events. Compared with Framingham Stroke Risk Score factors, the impact of stroke symptom on the prediction of future stroke was almost as large as the impact of smoking and hypertension and larger than the impact of diabetes and heart disease.

What Accounts for Rib Fractures in Older Adults?

PubMed Central

Wuermser, Lisa-Ann; Achenbach, Sara J.; Amin, Shreyasee; Khosla, Sundeep; Melton, L. Joseph

2011-01-01

To address the epidemiology of rib fractures, an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 699 Rochester, Minnesota, adults age 21–93 years was followed in a long-term prospective study. Bone mineral density (BMD) was assessed at baseline, and fractures were ascertained by periodic interview and medical record review. During 8560 person-years of followup (median, 13.9 years), 56 subjects experienced 67 rib fracture episodes. Risk factors for falling predicted rib fractures as well as BMD, but both were strongly age-related. After age-adjustment, BMD was associated with rib fractures in women but not men. Importantly, rib fractures attributed to severe trauma were associated with BMD in older individuals of both sexes. Self-reported heavy alcohol use doubled fracture risk but did not achieve significance due to limited statistical power. Bone density, along with heavy alcohol use and other risk factors for falling, contributes to the risk of rib fractures, but no one factor predominates. Older women with rib fractures, regardless of cause, should be considered for an osteoporosis evaluation, and strategies to prevent falling should be considered in both sexes. PMID:22028986

What accounts for rib fractures in older adults?

PubMed

Wuermser, Lisa-Ann; Achenbach, Sara J; Amin, Shreyasee; Khosla, Sundeep; Melton, L Joseph

2011-01-01

To address the epidemiology of rib fractures, an age- and sex-stratified random sample of 699 Rochester, Minnesota, adults age 21-93 years was followed in a long-term prospective study. Bone mineral density (BMD) was assessed at baseline, and fractures were ascertained by periodic interview and medical record review. During 8560 person-years of followup (median, 13.9 years), 56 subjects experienced 67 rib fracture episodes. Risk factors for falling predicted rib fractures as well as BMD, but both were strongly age-related. After age-adjustment, BMD was associated with rib fractures in women but not men. Importantly, rib fractures attributed to severe trauma were associated with BMD in older individuals of both sexes. Self-reported heavy alcohol use doubled fracture risk but did not achieve significance due to limited statistical power. Bone density, along with heavy alcohol use and other risk factors for falling, contributes to the risk of rib fractures, but no one factor predominates. Older women with rib fractures, regardless of cause, should be considered for an osteoporosis evaluation, and strategies to prevent falling should be considered in both sexes.

Stochastic Drought Risk Analysis and Projection Methods For Thermoelectric Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekera, Behailu Belamo

Combined effects of socio-economic, environmental, technological and political factors impact fresh cooling water availability, which is among the most important elements of thermoelectric power plant site selection and evaluation criteria. With increased variability and changes in hydrologic statistical stationarity, one concern is the increased occurrence of extreme drought events that may be attributable to climatic changes. As hydrological systems are altered, operators of thermoelectric power plants need to ensure a reliable supply of water for cooling and generation requirements. The effects of climate change are expected to influence hydrological systems at multiple scales, possibly leading to reduced efficiency of thermoelectric power plants. This study models and analyzes drought characteristics from a thermoelectric systems operational and regulation perspective. A systematic approach to characterize a stream environment in relation to extreme drought occurrence, duration and deficit-volume is proposed and demonstrated. More specifically, the objective of this research is to propose a stochastic water supply risk analysis and projection methods from thermoelectric power systems operation and management perspectives. The study defines thermoelectric drought as a shortage of cooling water due to stressed supply or beyond operable water temperature limits for an extended period of time requiring power plants to reduce production or completely shut down. It presents a thermoelectric drought risk characterization framework that considers heat content and water quantity facets of adequate water availability for uninterrupted operation of such plants and safety of its surroundings. In addition, it outlines mechanisms to identify rate of occurrences of the said droughts and stochastically quantify subsequent potential losses to the sector. This mechanism is enabled through a model based on compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process. This study also demonstrates how the systematic approach can be used for better understanding of pertinent vulnerabilities by providing risk-based information to stakeholders in the power sector. Vulnerabilities as well as our understanding of their extent and likelihood change over time. Keeping up with the changes and making informed decisions demands a time-dependent method that incorporates new evidence into risk assessment framework. This study presents a statistical time-dependent risk analysis approach, which allows for life cycle drought risk assessment of thermoelectric power systems. Also, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) extension to the proposed framework is developed. The BBN allows for incorporating new evidence, such as observing power curtailments due to extreme heat or lowflow situations, and updating our knowledge and understanding of the pertinent risk. In sum, the proposed approach can help improve adaptive capacity of the electric power infrastructure, thereby enhancing its resilience to events potentially threatening grid reliability and economic stability. The proposed drought characterization methodology is applied on a daily streamflow series obtained from three United States Geological Survey (USGS) water gauges on the Tennessee River basin. The stochastic water supply risk assessment and projection methods are demonstrated for two power plants on the White River, Indiana: Frank E. Ratts and Petersburg, using water temperature and streamflow time series data obtained from a nearby USGS gauge.

Protein-calorie malnutrition, macronutrient supplements, and tuberculosis.

PubMed

Koethe, J R; von Reyn, C F

2016-07-01

Protein-calorie malnutrition (PCM) is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) disease and may affect treatment outcomes. There is currently no recommended macronutrient intervention for improving the outcome of anti-tuberculosis treatment. We reviewed current literature on PCM and low body mass index (BMI) as risk factors for tuberculous infection and TB disease, and their effects on anti-tuberculosis treatment. We summarize clinical trials of macronutrient supplementation in the treatment of TB. PCM is a well-established risk factor for TB disease; however, data on malnutrition and the risk of tuberculous infection are limited. Malnutrition is associated with an increased risk of mortality and relapse of active TB. Clinical trials of macronutrient supplementation during treatment confirm a 2-3 kg improvement in weight gain at 2 months, and may result in improvement in physical function, sputum conversion and treatment completion, but they have not been powered to assess effects on mortality or relapse. Assessment of dietary intake, food security, and baseline BMI should be standard practice in anti-tuberculosis treatment, along with dietary counselling. As macronutrient supplementation may have modest benefits and is not associated with adverse events, patients with BMI values <18.5 kg/m(2) should be provided with balanced macronutrient supplementation whenever possible.

Administrative Data Linkage as a Tool for Child Maltreatment Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brownell, Marni D.; Jutte, Douglas P.

2013-01-01

Linking administrative data records for the same individuals across services and over time offers a powerful, population-wide resource for child maltreatment research that can be used to identify risk and protective factors and to examine outcomes. Multistage de-identification processes have been developed to protect privacy and maintain…

Assessing Risk Factors for Problem Parenting: The Significance of Social Support.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, R. Jay; Avison, William R.

1985-01-01

Case comparison analyses were used to assess the power of social support, life stress, and personal control in distinguishing maladaptive mothers. Results indicate that social support, as experienced or perceived by the individual, effectively distinguishes among women who vary in their adaptation to the parenting role. (Author/BL)

39 CFR 3020.32 - Supporting justification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... factors of 39 U.S.C. 3622(c); (c) Explain why, as to competitive products, the addition, deletion, or... change does not classify as competitive a product over which the Postal Service exercises sufficient market power that it can, without risk of losing a significant level of business to other firms offering...

Expected Power-Utility Maximization Under Incomplete Information and with Cox-Process Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujimoto, Kazufumi, E-mail: m_fuji@kvj.biglobe.ne.jp; Nagai, Hideo, E-mail: nagai@sigmath.es.osaka-u.ac.jp; Runggaldier, Wolfgang J., E-mail: runggal@math.unipd.it

2013-02-15

We consider the problem of maximization of expected terminal power utility (risk sensitive criterion). The underlying market model is a regime-switching diffusion model where the regime is determined by an unobservable factor process forming a finite state Markov process. The main novelty is due to the fact that prices are observed and the portfolio is rebalanced only at random times corresponding to a Cox process where the intensity is driven by the unobserved Markovian factor process as well. This leads to a more realistic modeling for many practical situations, like in markets with liquidity restrictions; on the other hand itmore » considerably complicates the problem to the point that traditional methodologies cannot be directly applied. The approach presented here is specific to the power-utility. For log-utilities a different approach is presented in Fujimoto et al. (Preprint, 2012).« less

Five-year data and prognostic factor analysis of oxaliplatin and irinotecan combinations for advanced colorectal cancer: N9741.

PubMed

Sanoff, Hanna K; Sargent, Daniel J; Campbell, Megan E; Morton, Roscoe F; Fuchs, Charles S; Ramanathan, Ramesh K; Williamson, Stephen K; Findlay, Brian P; Pitot, Henry C; Goldberg, Richard M

2008-12-10

In this report, we update survival (OS) and time-to-progression (TTP) data for the Intergroup trial N9741 after a median 5 years of follow-up by using risk-stratified and prognostic factor analyses to determine if treatment outcomes differ in specific patient subgroups. A total of 1,691 patients were randomly assigned to one of seven fluorouracil-, oxaliplatin-, and irinotecan-containing regimens. OS and TTP were calculated by treatment arm and baseline risk group (on the basis of WBC, performance status, number of sites of disease, and alkaline phosphatase). Multivariate prognostic factor analysis was used to assess clinical factors for their relationships to OS, TTP, response, and toxicity by using Cox and logistic regression models. The observed 5-year survival with infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) of 9.8% was better than with irinotecan plus bolus fluorouracil and leucovorin (IFL; 3.7%; P = .04) or with bolus irinotecan/oxaliplatin (IROX; 5.1%; P = .128). OS and TTP were significantly longer for FOLFOX (20.2 months and 8.9 months, respectively) than for IFL (14.6 months and 6.1 months, respectively; P < .001 for both) or for IROX (17.3 months and 6.7 months, respectively; P < .001 for both). OS differed by risk group: 20.7 months for low risk, 17.4 months for intermediate risk, and 9.4 months for high risk (P < .001). FOLFOX treatment was superior in all risk groups and was the most powerful prognostic factor for OS, TTP, response rate, and toxicity. The 9.8% 5-year OS in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who were treated with first-line FOLFOX sets a new benchmark. Neither baseline risk group nor any prognostic factor examined was predictive of treatment-specific outcome. However, treatment efficacy and patient longevity varied as a function of risk group.

Five-Year Data and Prognostic Factor Analysis of Oxaliplatin and Irinotecan Combinations for Advanced Colorectal Cancer: N9741

PubMed Central

Sanoff, Hanna K.; Sargent, Daniel J.; Campbell, Megan E.; Morton, Roscoe F.; Fuchs, Charles S.; Ramanathan, Ramesh K.; Williamson, Stephen K.; Findlay, Brian P.; Pitot, Henry C.; Goldberg, Richard M.

2008-01-01

Purpose In this report, we update survival (OS) and time-to-progression (TTP) data for the Intergroup trial N9741 after a median 5 years of follow-up by using risk-stratified and prognostic factor analyses to determine if treatment outcomes differ in specific patient subgroups. Patients and Methods A total of 1,691 patients were randomly assigned to one of seven fluorouracil-, oxaliplatin-, and irinotecan-containing regimens. OS and TTP were calculated by treatment arm and baseline risk group (on the basis of WBC, performance status, number of sites of disease, and alkaline phosphatase). Multivariate prognostic factor analysis was used to assess clinical factors for their relationships to OS, TTP, response, and toxicity by using Cox and logistic regression models. Results The observed 5-year survival with infusional fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) of 9.8% was better than with irinotecan plus bolus fluorouracil and leucovorin (IFL; 3.7%; P = .04) or with bolus irinotecan/oxaliplatin (IROX; 5.1%; P = .128). OS and TTP were significantly longer for FOLFOX (20.2 months and 8.9 months, respectively) than for IFL (14.6 months and 6.1 months, respectively; P < .001 for both) or for IROX (17.3 months and 6.7 months, respectively; P < .001 for both). OS differed by risk group: 20.7 months for low risk, 17.4 months for intermediate risk, and 9.4 months for high risk (P < .001). FOLFOX treatment was superior in all risk groups and was the most powerful prognostic factor for OS, TTP, response rate, and toxicity. Conclusion The 9.8% 5-year OS in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who were treated with first-line FOLFOX sets a new benchmark. Neither baseline risk group nor any prognostic factor examined was predictive of treatment-specific outcome. However, treatment efficacy and patient longevity varied as a function of risk group. PMID:19001325

Proposal for a recovery prediction method for patients affected by acute mediastinitis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background An attempt to find a prediction method of death risk in patients affected by acute mediastinitis. There is not such a tool described in available literature for that serious disease. Methods The study comprised 44 consecutive cases of acute mediastinitis. General anamnesis and biochemical data were included. Factor analysis was used to extract the risk characteristic for the patients. The most valuable results were obtained for 8 parameters which were selected for further statistical analysis (all collected during few hours after admission). Three factors reached Eigenvalue >1. Clinical explanations of these combined statistical factors are: Factor1 - proteinic status (serum total protein, albumin, and hemoglobin level), Factor2 - inflammatory status (white blood cells, CRP, procalcitonin), and Factor3 - general risk (age, number of coexisting diseases). Threshold values of prediction factors were estimated by means of statistical analysis (factor analysis, Statgraphics Centurion XVI). Results The final prediction result for the patients is constructed as simultaneous evaluation of all factor scores. High probability of death should be predicted if factor 1 value decreases with simultaneous increase of factors 2 and 3. The diagnostic power of the proposed method was revealed to be high [sensitivity =90%, specificity =64%], for Factor1 [SNC = 87%, SPC = 79%]; for Factor2 [SNC = 87%, SPC = 50%] and for Factor3 [SNC = 73%, SPC = 71%]. Conclusion The proposed prediction method seems a useful emergency signal during acute mediastinitis control in affected patients. PMID:22574625

Prevalence of diseases and statistical power of the Japan Nurses' Health Study.

PubMed

Fujita, Toshiharu; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Katanoda, Kota; Matsumura, Yasuhiro; Lee, Jung Su; Takagi, Hirofumi; Suzuki, Shosuke; Mizunuma, Hideki; Aso, Takeshi

2007-10-01

The Japan Nurses' Health Study (JNHS) is a long-term, large-scale cohort study investigating the effects of various lifestyle factors and healthcare habits on the health of Japanese women. Based on currently limited statistical data regarding the incidence of disease among Japanese women, our initial sample size was tentatively set at 50,000 during the design phase. The actual number of women who agreed to participate in follow-up surveys was approximately 18,000. Taking into account the actual sample size and new information on disease frequency obtained during the baseline component, we established the prevalence of past diagnoses of target diseases, predicted their incidence, and calculated the statistical power for JNHS follow-up surveys. For all diseases except ovarian cancer, the prevalence of a past diagnosis increased markedly with age, and incidence rates could be predicted based on the degree of increase in prevalence between two adjacent 5-yr age groups. The predicted incidence rate for uterine myoma, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension was > or =3.0 (per 1,000 women, per year), while the rate of thyroid disease, hepatitis, gallstone disease, and benign breast tumor was predicted to be > or =1.0. For these diseases, the statistical power to detect risk factors with a relative risk of 1.5 or more within ten years, was 70% or higher.

Prevention of motor‐vehicle deaths by changing vehicle factors

PubMed Central

Robertson, Leon S

2007-01-01

Objective To estimate the effect of changing vehicle factors to reduce mortality in a comprehensive study. Design/methods Odds of death in the United States during 2000–2005 were analyzed, involving specific makes and models of 1999–2005 model year cars, minivans, and sport utility vehicles using logistic regression after selection of factors to be included by examination of least‐squares correlations of vehicle factors to maximize independence of predictors. Based on the regression coefficients, percentages of deaths preventable by changes in selected factors were calculated. Correlations of vehicle characteristics to environmental and behavioral risk factors were also examined to assess any potential confounding. Results Deaths in the studied vehicles would have been 42% lower had all had electronic stability control (ESC) systems. Improved crashworthiness as measured by offset frontal and side crash tests would have produced an additional 28% reduction, and static stability improvement would have reduced the deaths 11%. Although weight–power that reduces fuel economy is associated with lower risk to drivers, it increases risk of deaths to pedestrians and bicyclists but has an overall minor effect compared to the other factors. Conclusion A large majority of motor‐vehicle‐related fatalities could be avoided by universal adoption of the most effective technologies. PMID:17916886

Association between risk factors and detection of cutaneous melanoma in the setting of a population-based skin cancer screening.

PubMed

Hübner, Joachim; Waldmann, Annika; Eisemann, Nora; Noftz, Maria; Geller, Alan C; Weinstock, Martin A; Volkmer, Beate; Greinert, Rüdiger; Breitbart, Eckhard W; Katalinic, Alexander

2017-07-07

Early detection is considered to improve the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma. The value of population-based screening for melanoma, however, is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of established risk factors in the setting of a population-based screening and to provide empirical evidence for potential risk stratifications. We reanalyzed data (including age, sex, risk factors, and screening results) of 354 635 participants in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany project conducted in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein (2003-2004). In multivariable analysis, atypical nevi [odds ratio (OR): 17.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 14.4-20.1], personal history of melanoma (OR: 5.3; 95% CI: 3.6-7.6), and multiple (≥40) common nevi (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.6) were associated with an increased risk of melanoma detection. Family history and congenital nevi were not significantly associated with melanoma detection in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany population. The effects of several risk-adapted screening strategies were evaluated. Hypothesizing a screening of individuals aged more than or equal to 35 years, irrespective of risk factors (age approach), the number needed to screen is 559 (95% CI: 514-612), whereas a screening of adults (aged ≥20) with at least one risk factor (risk approach) leads to an number needed to screen of 178 (95% CI: 163-196). Converted into one screen-detected melanoma, the number of missed melanomas is 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12-0.18) with the age approach and 0.22 (95% CI: 0.19-0.26) with the risk approach. The results indicate that focusing on individuals at high risk for melanoma may improve the cost-effectiveness and the benefit-to-harm balance of melanoma screening programs.

Perceived environmental and health risks of nuclear energy in Taiwan after Fukushima nuclear disaster.

PubMed

Ho, Jung-Chun; Lee, Chiao-Tzu Patricia; Kao, Shu-Fen; Chen, Ruey-Yu; Ieong, Marco C F; Chang, Hung-Lun; Hsieh, Wan-Hua; Tzeng, Chun-Chiao; Lu, Cheng-Fung; Lin, Suei-Loong; Chang, Peter Wushou

2014-12-01

After the nuclear disaster in Fukushima in Japan in 2011, a nation-wide survey using a standardized self-administered questionnaire was conducted in Taiwan, with a sample size of 2,742 individuals including the residents who live within and beyond 30 km from a nuclear power plant (NPP), to evaluate the participants' perceived nuclear risk in comparison with their perceived risks from selected environmental hazards and human behaviors. The three leading concerns of nuclear energy were "nuclear accidents (82.2%)," "radioactive nuclear waste disposal (76.9%)" and "potential health effects (73.3%)." Respondents (77.6%) perceived a higher relative risk of cancer incidence for those who live within 30 km from an NPP than those who live outside 30 km from an NPP. All the participants had a higher risk perception of death related to "nuclear power operation and nuclear waste" than cigarette smoking, motorcycling, food poisoning, plasticizer poisoning and traveling by air. Moreover, the residents in Gongliao where the planned fourth NPP is located had a significantly higher perceived risk ratio (PRR) of cancer incidence (adjusted odd ratio (aOR)=1.84, p value=0.017) and perceived risk of death (aOR=4.03, p value<0.001) related to nuclear energy. The other factors such as female gender (aOR/p value, 1.25/0.026 and 1.34/0.001 respectively), lower education levels (aOR/p value: 1.31/0.032; 2.03/<0.001) and the participants' concerns about nuclear accidents (aOR/p value: 1.33/0.022; 1.51/<0.001) and potential health effects (aOR/ p value: 2.95/ <0.001; 2.56/<0.001) were found to be commonly associated with the PRRs of "cancer incidence" and "perceived risk of death" related to nuclear energy, respectively. In addition, the respondents' concerns about nuclear waste disposal and possible eco-environmental damage made significant contributions (aOR/ p value: 1.39/ 0.001; 1.40/<0.001) to predict their perceived risk of death related to nuclear power. These factors are considered as important indicators and they can be used for suggesting future policy amendments and public referendum on the decision of the operation of the planned NPP. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving prediction of fall risk among nursing home residents using electronic medical records.

PubMed

Marier, Allison; Olsho, Lauren E W; Rhodes, William; Spector, William D

2016-03-01

Falls are physically and financially costly, but may be preventable with targeted intervention. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) is one potential source of information on fall risk factors among nursing home residents, but its limited breadth and relatively infrequent updates may limit its practical utility. Richer, more frequently updated data from electronic medical records (EMRs) may improve ability to identify individuals at highest risk for falls. The authors applied a repeated events survival model to analyze MDS 3.0 and EMR data for 5129 residents in 13 nursing homes within a single large California chain that uses a centralized EMR system from a leading vendor. Estimated regression parameters were used to project resident fall probability. The authors examined the proportion of observed falls within each projected fall risk decile to assess improvements in predictive power from including EMR data. In a model incorporating fall risk factors from the MDS only, 28.6% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile. In an alternative specification incorporating more frequently updated measures for the same risk factors from the EMR data, 32.3% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile, a 13% increase over the base MDS-only specification. Incorporating EMR data improves ability to identify those at highest risk for falls relative to prediction using MDS data alone. These improvements stem chiefly from the greater frequency with which EMR data are updated, with minimal additional gains from availability of additional risk factor variables. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk-adjusted outcome measurement in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Matthes-Martin, Susanne; Pötschger, Ulrike; Bergmann, Kirsten; Frommlet, Florian; Brannath, Werner; Bauer, Peter; Klingebiel, Thomas

2008-03-01

The purpose of the study was to define a risk score for 1-year treatment-related mortality (TRM) in children undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation as a basis for risk-adjusted outcome assessment. We analyzed 1364 consecutive stem cell transplants performed in 24 German and Austrian centers between 1998 and 2003. Five well-established risk factors were tested by multivariate logistic regression for predictive power: patient age, disease status, donor other than matched sibling donor, T cell depletion (TCD), and preceding stem cell transplantation. The risk score was defined by rounding the parameter estimates of the significant risk factors to the nearest integer. Crossvalidation was performed on the basis of 5 randomly extracted equal-sized parts from the database. Additionally, the score was validated for different disease entities and for single centers. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant correlation of TRM with 3 risk factors: age >10 years, advanced disease, and alternative donor. The parameter estimates were 0.76 for age, 0.73 for disease status, and 0.97 for donor type. Rounding the estimates resulted in a score with 1 point for each risk factor. One-year TRM (overall survival [OS]) were 5% (89%) with a score of 0, 18% (74%) with 1, 28% (54%) with 2, and 53% (27%) with 3 points. Crossvalidation showed stable results with a good correlation between predicted and observed mortality but moderate discrimination. The score seems to be a simple instrument to estimate the expected mortality for each risk group and for each center. Measuring TRM risk-adjusted and the comparison between expected and observed mortality may be an additional tool for outcome assessment in pediatric stem cell transplantation.

Gendered Differences in the Perceived Risks and Benefits of Oral PrEP Among HIV Serodiscordant Couples in Kenya

PubMed Central

Carroll, Jennifer J.; Ngure, Kenneth; Heffron, Renee; Curran, Kathryn; Mugo, Nelly R.

2016-01-01

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is effective for preventing HIV among HIV serodiscordant heterosexual couples. Gender roles may influence perceived personal and social risks related to HIV prevention behaviors and may affect use of PrEP. In this study, interviews and focus groups were conducted with 68 individuals from 34 mutually disclosed serodiscordant heterosexual partnerships in Thika, Kenya. Socio-cultural factors that affect adherence to PrEP were explored using grounded analysis. Three factors were identified, which shape perceptions of PrEP: gendered power dynamics and control over decision-making in the household; conflicts between risk reduction strategies and male sexual desire; culture bound definitions of women’s work. Adherence to PrEP in the Partners PrEP Study was high; however, participants articulated conflicting interests related to PrEP in connection with traditional gender roles. The successful delivery of PrEP will require understanding of key social factors, particularly related to gender and dyadic dynamics around HIV serostatus. PMID:26754017

Genetic Influences on Conduct Disorder

PubMed Central

Salvatore, Jessica E.; Dick, Danielle M.

2016-01-01

Conduct disorder (CD) is a moderately heritable psychiatric disorder of childhood and adolescence characterized by aggression toward people and animals, destruction of property, deceitfulness or theft, and serious violation of rules. Genome-wide scans using linkage and association methods have identified a number of suggestive genomic regions that are pending replication. A small number of candidate genes (e.g., GABRA2, MAOA, SLC6A4, AVPR1A) are associated with CD related phenotypes across independent studies; however, failures to replicate also exist. Studies of gene-environment interplay show that CD genetic predispositions also contribute to selection into higher-risk environments, and that environmental factors can alter the importance of CD genetic factors and differentially methylate CD candidate genes. The field’s understanding of CD etiology will benefit from larger, adequately powered studies in gene identification efforts; the incorporation of polygenic approaches in gene-environment interplay studies; attention to the mechanisms of risk from genes to brain to behavior; and the use of genetically informative data to test quasi-causal hypotheses about purported risk factors. PMID:27350097

Exposure Assessment at 30 000 Feet: Challenges and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Grajewski, Barbara; Pinkerton, Lynne E.

2015-01-01

Few studies of cancer mortality and incidence among flight crew have included a detailed assessment of both occupational exposures and lifestyle factors that may influence the risk of cancer. In this issue, Kojo et al. (Risk factors for skin cancer among Finnish airline cabin crew. Ann. Occup. Hyg 2013; 57: 695–704) evaluated the relative contributions of ultraviolet and cosmic radiation to the incidence of skin cancer in Finnish flight attendants. This is a useful contribution, yet the reason flight crew members have an increased risk of skin cancer compared with the general population remains unclear. Good policy decisions for flight crew will depend on continued and emerging effective collaborations to increase study power and improve exposure assessment in future flight crew health studies. Improving the assessment of occupational exposures and non-occupational factors will cost additional time and effort, which are well spent if the role of exposures can be clarified in larger studies. PMID:23818455

A modified fall risk assessment tool that is specific to physical function predicts falls in community-dwelling elderly people.

PubMed

Hirase, Tatsuya; Inokuchi, Shigeru; Matsusaka, Nobuou; Nakahara, Kazumi; Okita, Minoru

2014-01-01

Developing a practical fall risk assessment tool to predict the occurrence of falls in the primary care setting is important because investigators have reported deterioration of physical function associated with falls. Researchers have used many performance tests to predict the occurrence of falls. These performance tests predict falls and also assess physical function and determine exercise interventions. However, the need for such specialists as physical therapists to accurately conduct these tests limits their use in the primary care setting. Questionnaires for fall prediction offer an easy way to identify high-risk fallers without requiring specialists. Using an existing fall assessment questionnaire, this study aimed to identify items specific to physical function and determine whether those items were able to predict falls and estimate physical function of high-risk fallers. The analysis consisted of both retrospective and prospective studies and used 2 different samples (retrospective, n = 1871; prospective, n = 292). The retrospective study and 3-month prospective study comprised community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older and older adults using community day centers. The number of falls, risk factors for falls (15 risk factors on the questionnaire), and physical function determined by chair standing test (CST) and Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) were assessed. The retrospective study selected fall risk factors related to physical function. The prospective study investigated whether the number of selected risk factors could predict falls. The predictive power was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Seven of the 15 risk factors were related to physical function. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors was 0.82 (P = .00). The best cutoff point was 4 risk factors, with sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 68%, respectively. The mean values for the CST and TUGT at the best cutoff point were 12.9 and 12.5 seconds, respectively. In the retrospective study, the values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point from the prospective study were 13.2 and 11.4 seconds, respectively. This study confirms that a screening tool comprising 7 fall risk factors can be used to predict falls. The values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point for the selected 7 risk factors determined in our prospective study were similar to the cutoff points for the CST and TUGT in previous studies for fall prediction. We propose that the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors may be identified as the estimated value for physical function. These findings may contribute to earlier identification of high-risk fallers and intervention for fall prevention.

Early intervention for vulnerable infants and their families: an emerging agenda.

PubMed

Kruskal, M O; Thomasgard, M C; Shonkoff, J P

1989-12-01

Early childhood development is a complex dynamic process that begins at birth and unfolds in a transactional manner as infants interact with their environment. Children are highly adaptive organisms with powerful homeostatic mechanisms; consequently, most high-risk infants do well. Environmental factors are powerful mediators in this process, and a supportive and responsive environment may alleviate many early developmental insults, while a deficient environment can exacerbate developmental weaknesses. Available data suggest that appropriately designed early intervention services can be effective in facilitating both child and family adaptation for a variety of target groups. However, many important questions remain unanswered. For example, although interventions have been shown to improve cognitive function, effects in other important areas such as social and emotional functioning and family coping have not been well studied. Information about the impact of family variables is also incomplete as is our knowledge about which services work best for which children and families. Finally, the influence of protective factors in the child and in the environment requires further exploration. The perinatologist can make several critical contributions to the comprehensive care of high risk infants beyond their medical management. He or she can play a pivotal role in identifying those neonates who need early intervention on the basis of their biologic vulnerability, their environmental risk factors, or both. Perinatologists are also in the best position to facilitate early entry into an appropriate service system and can be important collaborators in providing comprehensive services and long-term follow-up.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Risk factors for injury accidents among moped and motorcycle riders.

PubMed

Moskal, Aurélie; Martin, Jean-Louis; Laumon, Bernard

2012-11-01

To study and quantify the effect of factors related to the riders of powered two-wheelers on the risk of injury accident involvement. Based on national data held by the police from 1996 to 2005, we conducted a case-control study with responsibility for the accident as the event of interest. We estimated the odds ratios for accident responsibility. Making the hypothesis that the non-responsible riders in the study are representative of all the riders on the road, we thus identified risk factors for being responsible for injury accidents. The studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, validity of the subject's driving licence and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Moped and motorcycle riders are analyzed separately, adjusting for the main characteristics of the accident. For both moped and motorcycle riders, being male, not wearing a helmet, exceeding the legal limit for alcohol and travelling for leisure purposes increased the risk of accident involvement. The youngest and oldest users had a greater risk of accident involvement. The largest risk factor was alcohol, and we identified a dose-effect relationship between alcohol consumption and accident risk, with an estimated odds ratio of over 10 for motorcycle and moped riders with a BAC of 2 g/l or over. Among motorcycle users, riders without a licence had twice the risk of being involved in an accident than those holding a valid licence. However, the number of years the rider had held a licence reduced the risk of accident involvement. One difference between moped and motorcycle riders involved the presence of a passenger on the vehicle: while carrying a passenger increased the risk of being responsible for the accident among moped riders, it protected against this risk among motorcycle riders. This analysis of responsibility has identified the major factors contributing to excess risk of injury accidents, some of which could be targeted by prevention programmes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anxiety sensitivity cognitive concerns predict suicide risk.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary Elizabeth; Capron, Daniel William; Raines, Amanda Medley; Schmidt, Norman Bradley

2015-03-30

Anxiety sensitivity (AS) cognitive concerns, which reflects fears of mental incapacitation, have been previously associated with suicidal ideation and behavior. The first study aim was to replicate and extend upon previous research by investigating whether AS cognitive concerns can discriminate between those at low risk versus high risk for suicidal behavior. Secondly, we aimed to test the incremental predictive power of AS cognitive concerns above and beyond known suicide risk factors (i.e., thwarted belongingness and insomnia). The sample consisted of 106 individuals (75% meeting current criteria for an Axis I disorder) recruited from the community. Results revealed that AS cognitive concerns were a robust predictor of elevated suicide risk after covarying for negative affect, whereas AS social and physical concerns were not. Those with high, relative to low, AS cognitive scores were 3.67 times more likely to be in the high suicide risk group. Moreover, AS cognitive concerns significantly predicted elevated suicide risk above and beyond relevant suicide risk factors. Results of this study add to a growing body of the literature demonstrating a relationship between AS cognitive concerns and increased suicidality. Incorporating AS cognitive concerns amelioration protocols into existing interventions for suicidal behavior may be beneficial. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A population-based Swedish Twin and Sibling Study of cannabis, stimulant and sedative abuse in men.

PubMed

Kendler, Kenneth S; Ohlsson, Henrik; Maes, Hermine H; Sundquist, Kristina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Sundquist, Jan

2015-04-01

Prior studies, utilizing interview-based assessments, suggest that most of the genetic risk factors for drug abuse (DA) are non-specific with a minority acting specifically on risk for abuse of particular psychoactive substance classes. We seek to replicate these findings using objective national registry data. We examined abuse of cannabis, stimulants (including cocaine) and sedatives ascertained from national Swedish registers in male-male monozygotic (1720 pairs) and dizygotic twins (1219 pairs) combined with near-age full siblings (76,457 pairs) to provide sufficient power. Modeling was performed using Mx. A common pathway model fitted better than an independent pathway model. The latent liability to DA was highly heritable but also influenced by shared environment. Cannabis, stimulant and sedative abuse all loaded strongly on the common factor. Estimates for the total heritability for the three forms of substance abuse ranged from 64 to 70%. Between 75 and 90% of that genetic risk was non-specific, coming from the common factor with the remainder deriving from substance specific genetic risk factors. By contrast, all of the shared environmental effects, which accounted for 18-20% of the variance in liability, were non-specific. In accord with prior studies based on personal interviews, the large preponderance of genetic risk factors for abuse of specific classes of psychoactive substance are non-specific. These results suggest that genetic variation in the primary sites of action of the psychoactive drugs, which differ widely across most drug classes, play a minor role in human individual differences in risk for DA. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a robust space power system decision model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chew, Gilbert; Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Jacobs, Mark; Stancati, Michael; Cataldo, Robert

2001-02-01

NASA continues to evaluate power systems to support human exploration of the Moon and Mars. The system(s) would address all power needs of surface bases and on-board power for space transfer vehicles. Prior studies have examined both solar and nuclear-based alternatives with respect to individual issues such as sizing or cost. What has not been addressed is a comprehensive look at the risks and benefits of the options that could serve as the analytical framework to support a system choice that best serves the needs of the exploration program. This paper describes the SAIC developed Space Power System Decision Model, which uses a formal Two-step Analytical Hierarchy Process (TAHP) methodology that is used in the decision-making process to clearly distinguish candidate power systems in terms of benefits, safety, and risk. TAHP is a decision making process based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process, which employs a hierarchic approach of structuring decision factors by weights, and relatively ranks system design options on a consistent basis. This decision process also includes a level of data gathering and organization that produces a consistent, well-documented assessment, from which the capability of each power system option to meet top-level goals can be prioritized. The model defined on this effort focuses on the comparative assessment candidate power system options for Mars surface application(s). This paper describes the principles of this approach, the assessment criteria and weighting procedures, and the tools to capture and assess the expert knowledge associated with space power system evaluation. .

Smoking as a Crucial Independent Determinant of Stroke

PubMed Central

Paul, Seana L; Thrift, Amanda G; Donnan, Geoffrey A

2004-01-01

Background Although smoking is known to be powerful risk factor for other vascular diseases, such as cardiac and peripheral vascular disease, only relatively recently has evidence for the role of smoking in the development of stroke been established. The reasons for this advance lie in the acknowledgement that stroke is a heterogeneous disease, in which its subtypes are associated with different risk factors. Furthermore, improvements in the stringency of epidemiological studies and the greater use of CT scanning have enabled the role of smoking in the development of stroke to be elucidated. Summary of review This is a qualitative examination of high quality epidemiological studies in which the role of smoking and passive smoking, as a risk factor for cerebral infarction, intracerebral haemorrhage and subarachnoid haemorrhage, is examined. In addition, the pathological mechanisms by which smoking or passive smoking may contribute to the development of stroke are reviewed. Conclusion Smoking is a crucial independent determinant of cerebral infarction and subarachnoid haemorrhage, however its role in intracerebral haemorrhage is unclear. Although studies are limited, there is evidence that exposure to passive smoking may also increase the risk of stroke. Smoking appears to be involved in the pathogenesis of stroke via direct injury to the vasculature and also by altering haemodynamic factors within the circulation. Importantly, smoking is modifiable risk factor for stroke. Therefore, the encouragement of smoking cessation may result in a substantial reduction in the incidence of this devastating disease.

Smoking as a Crucial Independent Determinant of Stroke

PubMed Central

Paul, Seana L; Thrift, Amanda G; Donnan, Geoffrey A

2004-01-01

Background Although smoking is known to be powerful risk factor for other vascular diseases, such as cardiac and peripheral vascular disease, only relatively recently has evidence for the role of smoking in the development of stroke been established. The reasons for this advance lie in the acknowledgement that stroke is a heterogeneous disease, in which its subtypes are associated with different risk factors. Furthermore, improvements in the stringency of epidemiological studies and the greater use of CT scanning have enabled the role of smoking in the development of stroke to be elucidated. Summary of review This is a qualitative examination of high quality epidemiological studies in which the role of smoking and passive smoking, as a risk factor for cerebral infarction, intracerebral haemorrhage and subarachnoid haemorrhage, is examined. In addition, the pathological mechanisms by which smoking or passive smoking may contribute to the development of stroke are reviewed. Conclusion Smoking is a crucial independent determinant of cerebral infarction and subarachnoid haemorrhage, however its role in intracerebral haemorrhage is unclear. Although studies are limited, there is evidence that exposure to passive smoking may also increase the risk of stroke. Smoking appears to be involved in the pathogenesis of stroke via direct injury to the vasculature and also by altering haemodynamic factors within the circulation. Importantly, smoking is modifiable risk factor for stroke. Therefore, the encouragement of smoking cessation may result in a substantial reduction in the incidence of this devastating disease. PMID:19570273

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

PubMed

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be worthwhile testing in medical practice in order to confirm or refute the positive findings of this study. Our cohort study will be continued to include more VTE cases and to increase predictive value of the model.

Risk Perception and Anxiety Regarding Radiation after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident: A Systematic Qualitative Review

PubMed Central

Lyamzina, Yuliya; Suzuki, Yuriko; Murakami, Michio

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a review of the publications of the risk perceptions or anxiety regarding radiation among people living in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Two database (MEDLINE and PsycINFO) and hand-searched the references in identified publications were searched. For each identified publication, the measurements and time related-change of risk perception and anxiety regarding radiation were summarized. Twenty-four publications were identified. Quantitative measures of risk perception or anxiety were roughly divided into two types: single-item Likert scales that measure anxiety about radiation; and theoretical, or model-based measures. Rates of Fukushima residents with radiation-related anxiety decreased from 2012 to 2015. Factors governing risk perception or radiation-related anxiety were summarized by demographics, disaster-related stressors, trusted information, and radiation-related variables. The effects of risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation were summarized as severe distress, intention to leave employment or not to return home, or other dimensions. This review provides summary of current findings on risk perception or anxiety regarding radiation in Japan after the accident. Further researches are needed about detailed statistical analysis for time-related change and causality among variables. PMID:29077045

Ergonomic Worksite Analysis of an Army Dental Clinic

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-08-01

conducted in which duration of hand grip used (power, pinch, retraction, other) and wrist position (ulnar deviation, radial deviation, neutral...DIAGNOSTIC TESTS percent n Nerve Conduction Study 61 11 X-ray of the wrist or hand 38 7 Grip and/or pinch strength 38 7 Dexterity Testing 33 6 Bone Scan 22 4... hand /wrist symptoms. Back and shoulder pain was reported by 53% of the respondents. Psychosocial factors as well as physical risk factors were found to

Local bladder cancer clusters in southeastern Michigan accounting for risk factors, covariates and residential mobility.

PubMed

Jacquez, Geoffrey M; Shi, Chen; Meliker, Jaymie R

2015-01-01

In case control studies disease risk not explained by the significant risk factors is the unexplained risk. Considering unexplained risk for specific populations, places and times can reveal the signature of unidentified risk factors and risk factors not fully accounted for in the case-control study. This potentially can lead to new hypotheses regarding disease causation. Global, local and focused Q-statistics are applied to data from a population-based case-control study of 11 southeast Michigan counties. Analyses were conducted using both year- and age-based measures of time. The analyses were adjusted for arsenic exposure, education, smoking, family history of bladder cancer, occupational exposure to bladder cancer carcinogens, age, gender, and race. Significant global clustering of cases was not found. Such a finding would indicate large-scale clustering of cases relative to controls through time. However, highly significant local clusters were found in Ingham County near Lansing, in Oakland County, and in the City of Jackson, Michigan. The Jackson City cluster was observed in working-ages and is thus consistent with occupational causes. The Ingham County cluster persists over time, suggesting a broad-based geographically defined exposure. Focused clusters were found for 20 industrial sites engaged in manufacturing activities associated with known or suspected bladder cancer carcinogens. Set-based tests that adjusted for multiple testing were not significant, although local clusters persisted through time and temporal trends in probability of local tests were observed. Q analyses provide a powerful tool for unpacking unexplained disease risk from case-control studies. This is particularly useful when the effect of risk factors varies spatially, through time, or through both space and time. For bladder cancer in Michigan, the next step is to investigate causal hypotheses that may explain the excess bladder cancer risk localized to areas of Oakland and Ingham counties, and to the City of Jackson.

Spatial and seasonal variations, sources, air-soil exchange, and carcinogenic risk assessment for PAHs and PCBs in air and soil of Kutahya, Turkey, the province of thermal power plants.

PubMed

Dumanoglu, Yetkin; Gaga, Eftade O; Gungormus, Elif; Sofuoglu, Sait C; Odabasi, Mustafa

2017-02-15

Atmospheric and concurrent soil samples were collected during winter and summer of 2014 at 41 sites in Kutahya, Turkey to investigate spatial and seasonal variations, sources, air-soil exchange, and associated carcinogenic risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The highest atmospheric and soil concentrations were observed near power plants and residential areas, and the wintertime concentrations were generally higher than ones measured in summer. Spatial distribution of measured ambient concentrations and results of the factor analysis showed that the major contributing PAH sources in Kutahya region were the coal combustion for power generation and residential heating (48.9%), and diesel and gasoline exhaust emissions (47.3%) while the major PCB sources were the coal (thermal power plants and residential heating) and wood combustion (residential heating) (45.4%), and evaporative emissions from previously used technical PCB mixtures (34.7%). Results of fugacity fraction calculations indicated that the soil and atmosphere were not in equilibrium for most of the PAHs (88.0% in winter, 87.4% in summer) and PCBs (76.8% in winter, 83.8% in summer). For PAHs, deposition to the soil was the dominant mechanism in winter while in summer volatilization was equally important. For PCBs, volatilization dominated in summer while deposition was higher in winter. Cancer risks associated with inhalation and accidental soil ingestion of soil were also estimated. Generally, the estimated carcinogenic risks were below the acceptable risk level of 10 -6 . The percentage of the population exceeding the acceptable risk level ranged from <1% to 16%, except, 32% of the inhalation risk levels due to PAH exposure in winter at urban/industrial sites were >10 -6 . Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Respiratory complications after diode-laser-assisted tonsillotomy.

PubMed

Fischer, Miloš; Horn, Iris-Susanne; Quante, Mirja; Merkenschlager, Andreas; Schnoor, Jörg; Kaisers, Udo X; Dietz, Andreas; Kluba, Karsten

2014-08-01

Children with certain risk factors, such as comorbidities or severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) are known to require extended postoperative monitoring after adenotonsillectomy. However, there are no recommendations available for diode-laser-assisted tonsillotomy. A retrospective chart review of 96 children who underwent diode-laser-assisted tonsillotomy (07/2011-06/2013) was performed. Data for general and sleep apnea history, power of the applied diode-laser (λ = 940 nm), anesthesia parameters, the presence of postoperative respiratory complications and postoperative healing were evaluated. After initially uncomplicated diode-laser-assisted tonsillotomy, an adjustment of post-anesthesia care was necessary in 16 of 96 patients due to respiratory failure. Respiratory complications were more frequent in younger children (3.1 vs. 4.0 years, p = 0.049, 95 % CI -1.7952 to -0.0048) and in children who suffered from nocturnal apneas (OR = 5.00, p < 0.01, 95 % CI 1.4780-16.9152) or who suffered from relevant comorbidities (OR = 4.84, p < 0.01, 95 % CI 1.5202-15.4091). Moreover, a diode-laser power higher than 13 W could be identified as a risk factor for the occurrence of a postoperative oropharyngeal edema (OR = 3.45, p < 0.01, 95 % CI 1.3924-8.5602). Postoperative respiratory complications should not be underestimated in children with sleep-disordered breathing (SDB). Therefore, children with SDB, children with comorbidities or children younger than 3 years should be considered "at risk" and children with confirmed moderate to severe OSAS should be referred to a PICU following diode-laser-assisted tonsillotomy. We recommend a reduced diode-laser power (<13 W) to reduce oropharyngeal edema.

Living near overhead high voltage transmission power lines as a risk factor for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a case-control study.

PubMed

Sohrabi, Mohammad-Reza; Tarjoman, Termeh; Abadi, Alireza; Yavari, Parvin

2010-01-01

This study aimed to investigate association of living near high voltage power lines with occurrence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Through a case-control study 300 children aged 1-18 years with confirmed ALL were selected from all referral teaching centers for cancer. They interviewed for history of living near overhead high voltage power lines during at least past two years and compared with 300 controls which were individually matched for sex and approximate age. Logistic regression, chi square and paired t-tests were used for analysis when appropriate. The case group were living significantly closer to power lines (P<0.001). More than half of the cases were exposed to two or three types of power lines (P<0.02). Using logistic regression, odds ratio of 2.61 (95%CI: 1.73 to 3.94) calculated for less than 600 meters far from the nearest lines against more than 600 meters. This ratio estimated as 9.93 (95%CI: 3.47 to 28.5) for 123 KV, 10.78 (95%CI: 3.75 to 31) for 230 KV and 2.98 (95%CI: 0.93 to 9.54) for 400 KV lines. Odds of ALL decreased 0.61 for every 600 meters from the nearest power line. This study emphasizes that living close to high voltage power lines is a risk for ALL.

Effect of simple, targeted diet in pregnant women with metabolic risk factors on maternal and fetal outcomes (ESTEEM): study protocol for a pragmatic multicentre randomised trial

PubMed Central

Al Wattar, Bassel H; Dodds, Julie; Placzek, Anna; Spyreli, Eleni; Moore, Amanda; Hooper, Richard; Beresford, Lee; Roseboom, Tessa J; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Hitman, Graham; Khan, Khalid S; Thangaratinam, Shakila

2016-01-01

Introduction Women with metabolic risk factors are at higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Mediterranean-based dietary interventions have the potential to minimise these risks. We aim to evaluate the effectiveness of a simple, targeted intervention modelled on Mediterranean diet in preventing maternal and fetal complications in pregnant women with metabolic risk factors. Methods and analysis Pregnant women with a singleton pregnancy <18 weeks gestation, and without pre-existing diabetes, chronic renal disease and autoimmune diseases will be recruited. Women with metabolic risk factors will be randomised to receive a dietary intervention based on a Mediterranean pattern, supplemented with extra virgin olive oil and mixed nuts until delivery. The intervention will be delivered through a series of one to one and group sessions. The primary outcome is a composite maternal outcome of pre-eclampsia or gestational diabetes and a composite fetal outcome of stillbirth, small for gestational age fetus or admission to the neonatal intensive care unit. Secondary outcomes include maternal, fetal, dietary and laboratory outcomes. We aim to randomise 1230 eligible women with metabolic risk factors. We will also compare the outcomes in women with and without these risk factors. The sample size will provide us with 80% power at 5% significance, assuming a 20% loss to follow-up to detect a 30% reduction in maternal and fetal complications. Ethics and dissemination The ESTEEM trial is designed to provide a definitive estimate of the effects of Mediterranean dietary pattern in pregnancy on maternal and fetal outcomes. The pragmatic nature of ESTEEM ensures the applicability of its findings into clinical practice. The findings of the study will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international scientific meetings and congresses. Ethical approval was granted by the NHS Research Ethics Committees (14/EE/1048). Trial registration number NCT02218931; Pre-results. PMID:27798035

An analysis of fatal and non-fatal injuries and injury severity factors among electric power industry workers.

PubMed

Fordyce, Tiffani A; Leonhard, Megan J; Watson, Heather N; Mezei, Gabor; Vergara, Ximena P; Krishen, Lovely

2016-11-01

The electric power industry represents a unique subset of the U.S. workforce. We aimed to evaluate the relationships between occupational category, nature of injury, and injury severity among electric power industry workers. The Occupational Health and Safety Database (1995-2013) was used to calculate injury rates, assess patterns of injury severity, and identify at-risk occupations in this population. Over the surveillance period, a total of 63,193 injuries were reported. Overall, and severe injury rates were 3.20 and 0.52 per 100 employee-years, respectively. The fatal injury rate was 3.29 per 100,000 employee-years. Line workers experienced the highest risk for fatal injuries and second highest for non-fatal severe injuries, following meter readers. The most severe non-fatal injuries were hernia and rupture; multiple injuries; and CTD/RSI. Fatal injuries were most commonly associated with vehicle collisions and contact with electric current. Industry specific surveillance and interventions tailored to high-risk occupations are needed to further reduce severe injuries in this population. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:948-958, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

PubMed

Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

2018-02-01

Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Methodolgy For Evaluation Of Technology Impacts In Space Electric Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holda, Julie

2004-01-01

The Analysis and Management branch of the Power and Propulsion Office at NASA Glenn Research Center is responsible for performing complex analyses of the space power and In-Space propulsion products developed by GRC. This work quantifies the benefits of the advanced technologies to support on-going advocacy efforts. The Power and Propulsion Office is committed to understanding how the advancement in space technologies could benefit future NASA missions. They support many diverse projects and missions throughout NASA as well as industry and academia. The area of work that we are concentrating on is space technology investment strategies. Our goal is to develop a Monte-Carlo based tool to investigate technology impacts in space electric power systems. The framework is being developed at this stage, which will be used to set up a computer simulation of a space electric power system (EPS). The outcome is expected to be a probabilistic assessment of critical technologies and potential development issues. We are developing methods for integrating existing spreadsheet-based tools into the simulation tool. Also, work is being done on defining interface protocols to enable rapid integration of future tools. Monte Carlo-based simulation programs for statistical modeling of the EPS Model. I decided to learn and evaluate Palisade's @Risk and Risk Optimizer software, and utilize it's capabilities for the Electric Power System (EPS) model. I also looked at similar software packages (JMP, SPSS, Crystal Ball, VenSim, Analytica) available from other suppliers and evaluated them. The second task was to develop the framework for the tool, in which we had to define technology characteristics using weighing factors and probability distributions. Also we had to define the simulation space and add hard and soft constraints to the model. The third task is to incorporate (preliminary) cost factors into the model. A final task is developing a cross-platform solution of this framework.

Understanding Local Policy Elites' Perceptions on the Benefits and Risks Associated with High-Voltage Power Line Installations in the State of Arkansas.

PubMed

Moyer, Rachael M; Song, Geoboo

2016-10-01

Recently, a controversial policy debate has arisen concerning the installation of high-voltage power lines in northwest Arkansas. While proponents argue that such an installation is inevitable to efficiently and reliably support the identified electric load in the region, opponents claim that the lines will degrade the natural environment and hamper the tourism-based local economy in affected regions, notably in Ozark Mountain areas. Of particular interest is to understand how local policy elites perceive the benefits and risks associated with such divisive proposals, which is critical for comprehending the formation and changes of related government policies. Based upon the dual process theory of judgment, this study systematically investigates the triadic relationships between (a) more profound personal value predispositions, (b) affects and feelings, and (c) perceived benefits and risks related to the proposed installation of high-voltage power lines among local policy elites in the state of Arkansas. In doing so, we analyze original data collected from a statewide Internet survey of 420 local leaders and key policymakers about their opinions on the related issues, while considering other factors claimed by previous literature to influence risk perceptions, including trust, knowledge level, and demographic characteristics. Analytical results suggest that grid-group cultural predispositions, as deeply held core values within local policy elites' individual belief systems, both directly and indirectly-through affective feelings-shape perceived utility associated with the installation of high-voltage power lines. We conclude this article by suggesting some practical considerations for better designing policy addressing controversial issues of this nature. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Hysteria Scale Elevations in Low Back Pain Patients: A Risk Factor for Misdiagnosis?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prokop, Charles K.

1986-01-01

Examined the nature of elevations on the Hysteria scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory in low back pain patients. Subscales reflecting somatic complaints were more powerful predictors of diagnostic status than were subscales with nonsomatic content. Overlapping and nonoverlapping items on the Hysteria and Hypochondriasis scales…

Nonlinear Dynamics: Theoretical Perspectives and Application to Suicidology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schiepek, Gunter; Fartacek, Clemens; Sturm, Josef; Kralovec, Karl; Fartacek, Reinhold; Ploderl, Martin

2011-01-01

Despite decades of research, the prediction of suicidal behavior remains limited. As a result, searching for more specific risk factors and testing their predictive power are central in suicidology. This strategy may be of limited value because it assumes linearity to the suicidal process that is most likely nonlinear by nature and which can be…

Electric power, melatonin, and breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, R.G.

1987-08-01

In this paper, the epidemiology of breast cancer will be discussed, followed by a brief description of the effect of electric fields on melatonin and the relation of melatonin to mammary cancer in rats. Finally, there will be a consideration of factors such as alcohol that affect melatonin and their relation to breast cancer risk. 55 refs.

39 CFR 3020.52 - Supporting justification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...(b), taking into account the factors of 39 U.S.C. 3622(c); (c) Explain why, as to competitive... 39 U.S.C. 3633. (d) Verify that the change does not classify as competitive a product over which the Postal Service exercises sufficient market power that it can, without risk of losing a significant level...

Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Lévy-stable laws and superstatistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, Benjamin; Beck, Christian; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Witthaut, Dirk; Timme, Marc

2018-02-01

Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today's frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.

Predictors of stroke in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: results from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research trial.

PubMed

Preiss, David; Giles, Thomas D; Thomas, Laine E; Sun, Jie-Lena; Haffner, Steven M; Holman, Rury R; Standl, Eberhard; Mazzone, Theodore; Rutten, Guy E; Tognoni, Gianni; Chiang, Fu-Tien; McMurray, John J V; Califf, Robert M

2013-09-01

Risk factors for stroke are well-established in general populations but sparsely studied in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. We identified predictors of stroke among participants with impaired glucose tolerance in the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. Cox proportional-hazard regression models were constructed using baseline variables, including the 2 medications studied, valsartan and nateglinide. Among 9306 participants, 237 experienced a stroke over 6.4 years. Predictors of stroke included classical risk factors such as existing cerebrovascular and coronary heart disease, higher pulse pressure, higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, older age, and atrial fibrillation. Other factors, including previous venous thromboembolism, higher waist circumference, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, lower heart rate, and lower body mass index, provided additional important predictive information, yielding a C-index of 0.72. Glycemic measures were not predictive of stroke. Variables associated with stroke were similar in participants with no prior history of cerebrovascular disease at baseline. The most powerful predictors of stroke in patients with impaired glucose tolerance included a combination of established risk factors and novel variables, such as previous venous thromboembolism and elevated waist circumference, allowing moderately effective identification of high-risk individuals.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

PubMed

Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Investment risk evaluation and countermeasures suggestions of Power Grid Corp under the background of electric power reform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chunhui; Su, Zhixiong; Wang, Yuqing; Liu, Yiqun; Qi, Yongwei

2017-03-01

Investment management is an important part of Power Grid Corp. The new electricity reform put forward the general idea of "three release, three strengthening, one independence", which brings new risks to the investment management of the Power Grid Corp. First, the paper analyzes the new risks faced by the Power Grid Corp investment under the background of the electricity reform. Second, the AHP-Fuzzy evaluation model of investment risk of Power Grid Corp is established, and taking Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau as an example, the paper evaluated its risk level of investment plan in 2017. Finally, in the context of the electricity reform, the strategy of the Power Grid Corp's investment risk is proposed.

Convergent synaptic and circuit substrates underlying autism genetic risks.

PubMed

McGee, Aaron; Li, Guohui; Lu, Zhongming; Qiu, Shenfeng

2014-02-01

There has been a surge of diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) over the past decade. While large, high powered genome screening studies of children with ASD have identified numerous genetic risk factors, research efforts to understanding how each of these risk factors contributes to the development autism has met with limited success. Revealing the mechanisms by which these genetic risk factors affect brain development and predispose a child to autism requires mechanistic understanding of the neurobiological changes underlying this devastating group of developmental disorders at multifaceted molecular, cellular and system levels. It has been increasingly clear that the normal trajectory of neurodevelopment is compromised in autism, in multiple domains as much as aberrant neuronal production, growth, functional maturation, patterned connectivity, and balanced excitation and inhibition of brain networks. Many autism risk factors identified in humans have been now reconstituted in experimental mouse models to allow mechanistic interrogation of the biological role of the risk gene. Studies utilizing these mouse models have revealed that underlying the enormous heterogeneity of perturbed cellular events, mechanisms directing synaptic and circuit assembly may provide a unifying explanation for the pathophysiological changes and behavioral endophenotypes seen in autism, although synaptic perturbations are far from being the only alterations relevant for ASD. In this review, we discuss synaptic and circuit abnormalities obtained from several prevalent mouse models, particularly those reflecting syndromic forms of ASD that are caused by single gene perturbations. These compiled results reveal that ASD risk genes contribute to proper signaling of the developing gene networks that maintain synaptic and circuit homeostasis, which is fundamental to normal brain development.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

2018-03-01

Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

Validation of the grown-ups with congenital heart disease score.

PubMed

Hörer, Jürgen; Roussin, Régine; LeBret, Emanuel; Ly, Mohamed; Abdullah, Jarrah; Marzullo, Rafaella; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Belli, Emre

2018-06-01

Adults with congenital heart disease in need of heart surgery frequently present with significant comorbidity. Furthermore, additional technical difficulties often related to redo operations increase the risk for postoperative mortality and morbidity. Hence, next to the type of the procedure, additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors have to be considered for risk evaluation. The recently proposed grown-ups with congenital heart disease (GUCH) mortality and morbidity scores account for these additional risk factors. We sought to validate their predictive power in a large population operated in a single centre. Data of all consecutive patients aged 18 years or more, who underwent surgery for congenital heart disease between 2005 and 2016, were collected. Mortality was defined as hospital mortality or mortality within 30 days following surgery. Morbidity was defined as occurrence of one or more of the following complications: renal failure requiring dialysis, neurologic deficit persisting at discharge, atrioventricular block requiring permanent pacemaker implantation, mechanical circulatory support, phrenic nerve injury and unplanned reoperation. The discriminatory power of the GUCH scores was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-index, including 95% CI). Eight hundred and twenty-four operations were evaluated. Additional procedure-dependent and procedure-independent factors, as defined in the GUCH scores, were present in 165 patients (20.0%) and 544 patients (66.0%), respectively. Hospital mortality and morbidity was 3.4% and 10.0%, respectively. C-index for GUCH mortality score was 0.809 (0.742-0.877). C-index for GUCH morbidity score was 0.676 (0.619-0.734). We could confirm the good predictive power of the GUCH mortality score for postoperative mortality in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Sexual HIV Risk Among Male Parolees and Their Female Partners: The Relate Project

PubMed Central

Comfort, Megan; Reznick, Olga Grinstead; Dilworth, Samantha E.; Binson, Diane; Darbes, Lynae A.; Neilands, Torsten B.

2014-01-01

Background The massively disproportionate impact of America’s prison boom on communities of color has raised questions about how incarceration may affect health disparities, including disparities in HIV. Primary partners are an important source of influence on sexual health. In this paper, we investigate sexual HIV risk among male-female couples following a man’s release from prison. Methods We draw upon data from the Relate Project, a novel cross-sectional survey of recently released men and their female partners in Oakland and San Francisco, California (N=344). Inferential analyses use the actor-partner model to explore actor and partner effects on sexual HIV risk outcomes. Results Dyadic analyses of sexual HIV risk among male parolees and their female partners paint a complex portrait of couples affected by incarceration and of partners’ influences on each other. Findings indicate that demographic factors such as education level and employment status, individual psycho-social factors such as perception of risk, and relationship factors such as commitment and power affect sexual HIV risk outcomes. Conclusion The Relate Project provides a novel dataset for the dyadic analysis of sexual risk among male parolees and their female partners, and results highlight the importance of focusing on the couple as a unit when assessing HIV risk and protective behaviors. Results also indicate potentially fruitful avenues for population-specific interventions that may help to reduce sexual health disparities among couples affected by incarceration. PMID:25642396

The Gastric/Pancreatic Amylase Ratio Predicts Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula With High Sensitivity and Specificity

PubMed Central

Jin, Shuo; Shi, Xiao-Ju; Sun, Xiao-Dong; Zhang, Ping; Lv, Guo-Yue; Du, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Guang-Yi

2015-01-01

Abstract This article aims to identify risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and evaluate the gastric/pancreatic amylase ratio (GPAR) on postoperative day (POD) 3 as a POPF predictor in patients who undergo pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). POPF significantly contributes to mortality and morbidity in patients who undergo PD. Previously identified predictors for POPF often have low predictive accuracy. Therefore, accurate POPF predictors are needed. In this prospective cohort study, we measured the clinical and biochemical factors of 61 patients who underwent PD and diagnosed POPF according to the definition of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula. We analyzed the association between POPF and various factors, identified POPF risk factors, and evaluated the predictive power of the GPAR on POD3 and the levels of serum and ascites amylase. Of the 61 patients, 21 developed POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid, POD1 serum, POD1 median output of pancreatic drain fluid volume, and GPAR were significantly associated with POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid and high GPAR were independent risk factors. Although serum and ascites amylase did not predict POPF accurately, the cutoff value was 1.24, and GPAR predicted POPF with high sensitivity and specificity. This is the first report demonstrating that high GPAR on POD3 is a risk factor for POPF and showing that GPAR is a more accurate predictor of POPF than the previously reported amylase markers. PMID:25621676

The gastric/pancreatic amylase ratio predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula with high sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Jin, Shuo; Shi, Xiao-Ju; Sun, Xiao-Dong; Zhang, Ping; Lv, Guo-Yue; Du, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Guang-Yi

2015-01-01

This article aims to identify risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and evaluate the gastric/pancreatic amylase ratio (GPAR) on postoperative day (POD) 3 as a POPF predictor in patients who undergo pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).POPF significantly contributes to mortality and morbidity in patients who undergo PD. Previously identified predictors for POPF often have low predictive accuracy. Therefore, accurate POPF predictors are needed.In this prospective cohort study, we measured the clinical and biochemical factors of 61 patients who underwent PD and diagnosed POPF according to the definition of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula. We analyzed the association between POPF and various factors, identified POPF risk factors, and evaluated the predictive power of the GPAR on POD3 and the levels of serum and ascites amylase.Of the 61 patients, 21 developed POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid, POD1 serum, POD1 median output of pancreatic drain fluid volume, and GPAR were significantly associated with POPF. The color of the pancreatic drain fluid and high GPAR were independent risk factors. Although serum and ascites amylase did not predict POPF accurately, the cutoff value was 1.24, and GPAR predicted POPF with high sensitivity and specificity.This is the first report demonstrating that high GPAR on POD3 is a risk factor for POPF and showing that GPAR is a more accurate predictor of POPF than the previously reported amylase markers.

Shared polymorphisms and modifiable behavior factors for myocardial infarction and high cholesterol in a retrospective population study

PubMed Central

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2017-01-01

Abstract Genetic and environmental (behavior, clinical, and demographic) factors are associated with increased risks of both myocardial infarction (MI) and high cholesterol (HC). It is known that HC is major risk factor that may cause MI. However, whether there are common single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) associated with both MI and HC is not firmly established, and whether there are modulate and modified effects (interactions of genetic and known environmental factors) on either HC or MI, and whether these joint effects improve the predictions of MI, is understudied. The purpose of this study is to identify novel shared SNPs and modifiable environmental factors on MI and HC. We assess whether SNPs from a metabolic pathway related to MI may relate to HC; whether there are moderate effects among SNPs, lifestyle (smoke and drinking), HC, and MI after controlling other factors [gender, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension (HTN)]; and evaluate prediction power of the joint and modulate genetic and environmental factors influencing the MI and HC. This is a retrospective study with residents of Erie and Niagara counties in New York with a history of MI or with no history of MI. The data set includes environmental variables (demographic, clinical, lifestyle). Thirty-one tagSNPs from a metabolic pathway related to MI are genotyped. Generalized linear models (GLMs) with imputation-based analysis are conducted for examining the common effects of tagSNPs and environmental exposures and their interactions on having a history of HC or MI. MI, BMI, and HTN are significant risk factors for HC. HC shows the strongest effect on risk of MI in addition to HTN; gender and smoking status while drinking status shows protective effect on MI. rs16944 (gene IL-1β) and rs17222772 (gene ALOX) increase the risks of HC, while rs17231896 (gene CETP) has protective effects on HC either with or without the clinical, behavioral, demographic factors with different effect sizes that may indicate the existence of moderate or modifiable effects. Further analysis with the inclusions of gene–gene and gene–environmental interactions shows interactions between rs17231896 (CETP) and rs17222772 (ALOX); rs17231896 (CETP) and gender. rs17237890 (CETP) and rs2070744 (NOS3) are found to be significantly associated with risks of MI adjusted by both SNPs and environmental factors. After multiple testing adjustments, these effects diminished as expected. In addition, an interaction between drinking and smoking status is significant. Overall, the prediction power in successfully classifying MI status is increased to 80% with inclusions of all significant tagSNPs and environmental factors and their interactions compared with environmental factors only (72%). Having a history of either HC or MI has significant effects on each other in both directions, in addition to HTN and gender. Genes/SNPs identified from this analysis that are associated with HC may be potentially linked to MI, which could be further examined and validated through haplotype-pairs analysis with appropriate population stratification corrections, and function/pathway regulation analysis to eliminate the limitations of the current analysis. PMID:28906356

Shared polymorphisms and modifiable behavior factors for myocardial infarction and high cholesterol in a retrospective population study.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2017-09-01

Genetic and environmental (behavior, clinical, and demographic) factors are associated with increased risks of both myocardial infarction (MI) and high cholesterol (HC). It is known that HC is major risk factor that may cause MI. However, whether there are common single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) associated with both MI and HC is not firmly established, and whether there are modulate and modified effects (interactions of genetic and known environmental factors) on either HC or MI, and whether these joint effects improve the predictions of MI, is understudied.The purpose of this study is to identify novel shared SNPs and modifiable environmental factors on MI and HC. We assess whether SNPs from a metabolic pathway related to MI may relate to HC; whether there are moderate effects among SNPs, lifestyle (smoke and drinking), HC, and MI after controlling other factors [gender, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension (HTN)]; and evaluate prediction power of the joint and modulate genetic and environmental factors influencing the MI and HC.This is a retrospective study with residents of Erie and Niagara counties in New York with a history of MI or with no history of MI. The data set includes environmental variables (demographic, clinical, lifestyle). Thirty-one tagSNPs from a metabolic pathway related to MI are genotyped. Generalized linear models (GLMs) with imputation-based analysis are conducted for examining the common effects of tagSNPs and environmental exposures and their interactions on having a history of HC or MI.MI, BMI, and HTN are significant risk factors for HC. HC shows the strongest effect on risk of MI in addition to HTN; gender and smoking status while drinking status shows protective effect on MI. rs16944 (gene IL-1β) and rs17222772 (gene ALOX) increase the risks of HC, while rs17231896 (gene CETP) has protective effects on HC either with or without the clinical, behavioral, demographic factors with different effect sizes that may indicate the existence of moderate or modifiable effects. Further analysis with the inclusions of gene-gene and gene-environmental interactions shows interactions between rs17231896 (CETP) and rs17222772 (ALOX); rs17231896 (CETP) and gender. rs17237890 (CETP) and rs2070744 (NOS3) are found to be significantly associated with risks of MI adjusted by both SNPs and environmental factors. After multiple testing adjustments, these effects diminished as expected. In addition, an interaction between drinking and smoking status is significant. Overall, the prediction power in successfully classifying MI status is increased to 80% with inclusions of all significant tagSNPs and environmental factors and their interactions compared with environmental factors only (72%).Having a history of either HC or MI has significant effects on each other in both directions, in addition to HTN and gender. Genes/SNPs identified from this analysis that are associated with HC may be potentially linked to MI, which could be further examined and validated through haplotype-pairs analysis with appropriate population stratification corrections, and function/pathway regulation analysis to eliminate the limitations of the current analysis.

A systematic review of SNAPO (Smoking, Nutrition, Alcohol, Physical activity and Obesity) randomized controlled trials in young adult men.

PubMed

Ashton, Lee M; Morgan, Philip J; Hutchesson, Melinda J; Rollo, Megan E; Young, Myles D; Collins, Clare E

2015-12-01

To investigate the effectiveness of Smoking, Nutrition, Alcohol, Physical activity and Obesity (SNAPO) interventions in young men exclusively. The secondary aim was to evaluate the recruitment, retention and engagement strategies. A search with no date restrictions was conducted across seven databases. Randomized controlled trials recruiting young men only (aged 18-35 years) into interventions targeting any SNAPO risk factors were included. Ten studies were included (two nutrition, six alcohol use, two targeting multiple SNAPO risk factors). Six studies (two nutrition, three alcohol use and one targeting multiple SNAPO risk factors) demonstrated significant positive short-term intervention effects, but impact was either not assessed beyond the intervention (n=3), had short-term follow-up (≤6 months) (n=2) or not sustained beyond six months (n=1). Overall, a high risk of bias was identified across studies. Only one study undertook a power calculation and recruited the required sample size. Adequate retention was achieved in three studies. Effectiveness of engagement strategies was not reported in any studies. Despite preliminary evidence of short-term effectiveness of SNAPO interventions in young men, few studies characterized by a high risk of bias were identified. High quality SNAPO interventions for young men are warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automatic Identification of Web-Based Risk Markers for Health Events

PubMed Central

Borsa, Diana; Hayward, Andrew C; McKendry, Rachel A; Cox, Ingemar J

2015-01-01

Background The escalating cost of global health care is driving the development of new technologies to identify early indicators of an individual’s risk of disease. Traditionally, epidemiologists have identified such risk factors using medical databases and lengthy clinical studies but these are often limited in size and cost and can fail to take full account of diseases where there are social stigmas or to identify transient acute risk factors. Objective Here we report that Web search engine queries coupled with information on Wikipedia access patterns can be used to infer health events associated with an individual user and automatically generate Web-based risk markers for some of the common medical conditions worldwide, from cardiovascular disease to sexually transmitted infections and mental health conditions, as well as pregnancy. Methods Using anonymized datasets, we present methods to first distinguish individuals likely to have experienced specific health events, and classify them into distinct categories. We then use the self-controlled case series method to find the incidence of health events in risk periods directly following a user’s search for a query category, and compare to the incidence during other periods for the same individuals. Results Searches for pet stores were risk markers for allergy. We also identified some possible new risk markers; for example: searching for fast food and theme restaurants was associated with a transient increase in risk of myocardial infarction, suggesting this exposure goes beyond a long-term risk factor but may also act as an acute trigger of myocardial infarction. Dating and adult content websites were risk markers for sexually transmitted infections, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Conclusions Web-based methods provide a powerful, low-cost approach to automatically identify risk factors, and support more timely and personalized public health efforts to bring human and economic benefits. PMID:25626480

There’s No Pamphlet for the Kind of Sex I Have: HIV-Related Risk Factors and Protective Behaviors Among Transgender Men Who Have Sex with Non-Transgender Men

PubMed Central

Sevelius, Jae

2009-01-01

Preliminary evidence has suggested that some transgender men who have sex with non-transgender men (“trans MSM”) may be at risk for HIV and STIs and that their prevention needs are not being met. Quantitative (n = 45) and qualitative (n =15) interviews explored risk behaviors, protective strategies, and perceptions of the impact of transgender identity on sexual decision-making among trans MSM. A majority of the participants reported inconsistent condom use during receptive vaginal and anal sex with non-trans male partners; HIV prevalence was 2.2%. Risk factors included barriers to sexual negotiation including unequal power dynamics, low self-esteem, and need for gender identity affirmation. Protective strategies included meeting and negotiating with potential partners online. Results of this study provide initial evidence that current risk behaviors could lead to rising HIV prevalence rates among trans MSM. Prevention programs must tailor services to include issues unique to trans MSM and their non-trans male partners. PMID:19732698

Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halm, M. K.; Clark, A.; Wear, M. L.; Murray, J. D.; Polk, J. D.; Amirian, E.

2009-01-01

Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

PubMed

Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

2017-05-23

Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Self-Reported Stroke Symptoms Without a Prior Diagnosis of Stroke or TIA: A Powerful New Risk Factor for Stroke

PubMed Central

Kleindorfer, Dawn; Judd, Suzanne; Howard, Virginia J.; McClure, Leslie; Safford, Monika M.; Cushman, Mary; Rhodes, David; Howard, George

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose Previously in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort, we found 18% of the stroke/TIA-free study population reported ≥ 1 stroke symptom (SS) at baseline. We sought to evaluate the additional impact of these stroke symptoms (SS) on risk for subsequent stroke. Methods REGARDS recruited 30,239 U.S. blacks and whites, aged 45+ in 2003–7, who are being followed every 6 months for events. All stroke events are physician-verified; those with prior diagnosed stroke or TIA are excluded from this analysis. At baseline, participants were asked six questions regarding stroke symptoms. Measured stroke risk factors were components of the Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS). Results After excluding those with prior stroke or missing data, there were 24,412 participants in this analysis, with a median follow-up of 4.4 years. Participants were 39% black, 55% female, and had median age of 64 years. There were 381 physician-verified stroke events. The FSRS explained 72.0% of stroke risk; individual components explained between 0.2% (LVH) and 5.7% (age + race) of stroke risk. After adjustment for FSRS factors, SS were significantly related to stroke risk: for each SS reported, the risk of stroke increased by 21% per symptom. Discussion Among participants without self-reported stroke or TIA, prior SS are highly predictive of future stroke events. Compared to FSRS factors, the impact of SS on the prediction of future stroke was almost as large as the impact of smoking and hypertension, and larger than the impact of diabetes and heart disease. PMID:21921283

Test Review: LeBuffe, P. A., & Naglieri, J. A. (1999). The Devereux Early Childhood Assessment. Lewisville, NC: Kaplan Press: LeBuffe, P. A., & Naglieri, J. A. (2003). Devereux Early Childhood Assessment Clinical Form (DECA-C). Lewisville, NC: Kaplan Press

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reddy, Linda

2007-01-01

Based on the seminal work of Emmy Werner (1990), practitioners have recognized the powerful role protective and risk factors play in the development of children's emotional and behavioral adjustment. Researchers have concluded that differences in children's reactions to difficult events are influenced by the type and level of protective factors in…

Developmental trajectories of bullying and associated factors.

PubMed

Pepler, Debra; Jiang, Depeng; Craig, Wendy; Connolly, Jennifer

2008-01-01

Trajectories in bullying through adolescence were studied along with individual, family, and peer relationship factors. At the outset, participants' ages ranged from 10 to 14; 74% identified as European Canadian with the remainder from diverse backgrounds. With 8 waves of data over 7 years, 871 students (466 girls and 405 boys) were studied to reveal 4 trajectories: 9.9% reported consistently high levels of bullying, 13.4% reported early moderate levels desisting to almost no bullying at the end of high school, 35.1% reported consistently moderate levels, and 41.6% almost never reported bullying. Students who bullied had elevated risks in individual, parent, and peer relationship domains. Risk profiles and trajectories provide direction for interventions to curtail the development of power and aggression in relationships.

Psychosocial Factors Associated With Smoking Intention in Korean Male Middle School Students.

PubMed

Ra, Jin Suk; Cho, Yoon Hee

2017-10-01

This study examined psychosocial factors influencing smoking intention in Korean male middle school students. We used a descriptive cross-sectional design, based on the biopsychosocial model, to analyze data from 309 male adolescents aged 14-16 years in middle school. Of the psychological factors examined, stress and risk-taking tendency were significantly associated with smoking intention. Of the social factors examined, social normative beliefs, close friends' and siblings' smoking, and low socioeconomic status were significant factors in smoking intention. The explanatory power of these variables in the predictive model was 23.1%. In conclusion, the unique psychological and social characteristics of adolescents should be reflected in interventions for smoking prevention.

Building resilient power grids from integrated risk governance perspective: A lesson learned from china's 2008 Ice-Snow Storm disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Qian

2014-10-01

In the past three decades, the electric energy industry made great contribution to support rapid social and economic development in China, and meanwhile has been grown at the highest rate in the human history owing to the economic reform. In its new national development plan, more investment has been put into installation of both electricity generating capacity and transmitting capacity in order to meet fast growing demand of electric energy. However, energy resources, both fossil fuel and renewable types, and energy consumption and load centers in China are not evenly distributed in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Moreover, dominated by coal as its primary energy source, the whole eastern China is now entering an environmental crisis in which pollutants emitted by coal power plants contribute a large part. To balance the regional differences in energy sources and energy consumption while meeting the steadily increasing demands for electric energy for the whole country, in addition to increase electric generating capacity, building large-scale, long-distance ultra high voltage power grids is the top priority for next five years. China is a country prone to almost all kinds of natural disasters due to its vast, complex geographical and climatic conditions. In recent years, frequent natural disasters, especially extreme weather and climate events, have threatened the safety, reliability and stability of electric energy system in China. Unfortunately, with fast growth rate but lacking of risk assessing and prevention mechanism, many infrastructure constructions, including national power grids, are facing integrated and complex economic, social, institutional and ecological risks. In this paper, based on a case analysis of the Great Ice Storm in southern China in January 2008, risks of building a resilient power grid to deal with increasing threats from extreme weathers are discussed. The paper recommends that a systematic approach based on the social-ecological system framework should be applied to assess the risk factors associated with the power grid, and the tools to deal with complex dynamic systems need to be applied to deal with constant changes in the whole social-ecological system.

Workshop Report UK Food Standards Agency Workshop Report: carbohydrate and cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Peacock, Emma; Stanley, John; Calder, Philip C.; Jebb, Susan A.; Thies, Frank; Seal, Chris J.; Woodside, Jayne V.; Sanders, Tom A. B.

2012-01-01

This report summarises a workshop convened by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) on 14 October 2008 to discuss current FSA-funded research on carbohydrates and cardiovascular health. The objective of this workshop was to discuss the results of recent research and to identify any areas which could inform future FSA research calls. This workshop highlighted that the FSA is currently funding some of the largest, well-powered intervention trials investigating the type of fat and carbohydrate, whole grains and fruit and vegetables, on various CVD risk factors. Results of these trials will make a substantive contribution to the evidence on diet and cardiovascular risk. PMID:20236556

More ecological ERA: incorporating natural environmental factors and animal behavior.

PubMed

Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Jevtić, Dragan M; Laskowski, Ryszard

2013-07-01

We discuss the importance of selected natural abiotic and biotic factors in ecological risk assessment based on simplistic laboratory bioassays. Although it is impossible to include all possible natural factors in standard lower-tier ecotoxicological testing, neglecting them is not an option. Therefore, we try to identify the most important factors and advocate redesigning standard testing procedures to include theoretically most potent interactions. We also point out a few potentially important factors that have not been studied enough so far. The available data allowed us to identify temperature and O2 depletion as the most critical factors that should be included in ecotoxicity testing as soon as possible. Temporal limitations and fluctuations in food availability also appear important, but at this point more fundamental research in this area is necessary before making decisions on their inclusion in risk assessment procedures. We propose using specific experimental designs, such as Box-Behnken or Central Composite, which allow for simultaneous testing of 3 or more factors for their individual and interactive effects with greater precision and without increasing the effort and costs of tests dramatically. Factorial design can lead to more powerful tests and help to extend the validity of conclusions. Finally, ecological risk assessment procedures should include information on animal behavior, especially feeding patterns. This requires more basic studies, but already at this point adequate mechanistic effect models can be developed for some species. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Evaluation of Lay Support in Pregnant women with Social risk (ELSIPS): a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Kenyon, Sara; Jolly, Kate; Hemming, Karla; Ingram, Lucy; Gale, Nicola; Dann, Sophie-Anna; Chambers, Jacky; MacArthur, Christine

2012-02-29

Maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes are worse in families from black and ethnic minority groups and disadvantaged backgrounds. There is little evidence on whether lay support improves maternal and infant outcomes among women with complex social needs within a disadvantaged multi-ethnic population in the United Kingdom (UK). The aim of this study is to evaluate a lay Pregnancy Outreach Worker (POW) service for nulliparous women identified as having social risk within a maternity service that is systematically assessing social risks alongside the usual obstetric and medical risks. The study design is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) in nulliparous women assessed as having social risk comparing standard maternity care with the addition of referral to the POW support service. The POWs work alongside community midwifery teams and offer individualised support to women to encourage engagement with services (health and social care) from randomisation (before 28 weeks gestation) until 6 weeks after birth. The primary outcomes have been chosen on the basis that they are linked to maternal and infant health. The two primary outcomes are engagement with antenatal care, assessed by the number of antenatal visits; and maternal depression, assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at 8-12 weeks after birth. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, routine child health assessments, including immunisation uptake and breastfeeding at 6 weeks. Other psychological outcomes (self efficacy) and mother-to-infant bonding will also be collected using validated tools.A sample size of 1316 will provide 90% power (at the 5% significance level) to detect increased engagement with antenatal services of 1.5 visits and a reduction of 1.5 in the average EPDS score for women with two or more social risk factors, with power in excess of this for women with any social risk factor. Analysis will be by intention to treat. Qualitative research will explore the POWs' daily work in context. This will complement the findings of the RCT through a triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data on the process of the intervention, and identify other contextual factors that affect the implementation of the intervention. The trial will provide high quality evidence as to whether or not lay support (POW) offered to women identified with social risk factors improves engagement with maternity services and reduces numbers of women with depression. MREC NUMBER: 10/H1207/23 ISRCTN: ISRCTN35027323.

Towards resiliency with micro-grids: Portfolio optimization and investment under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharieh, Kaveh

Energy security and sustained supply of power are critical for community welfare and economic growth. In the face of the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions which can result in power grid outage, the value of micro-grids to improve the communities' power reliability and resiliency is becoming more important. Micro-grids capability to operate in islanded mode in stressed-out conditions, dramatically decreases the economic loss of critical infrastructure in power shortage occasions. More wide-spread participation of micro-grids in the wholesale energy market in near future, makes the development of new investment models necessary. However, market and price risks in short term and long term along with risk factors' impacts shall be taken into consideration in development of new investment models. This work proposes a set of models and tools to address different problems associated with micro-grid assets including optimal portfolio selection, investment and financing in both community and a sample critical infrastructure (i.e. wastewater treatment plant) levels. The models account for short-term operational volatilities and long-term market uncertainties. A number of analytical methodologies and financial concepts have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models as follows. (1) Capital budgeting planning and portfolio optimization models with Monte Carlo stochastic scenario generation are applied to derive the optimal investment decision for a portfolio of micro-grid assets considering risk factors and multiple sources of uncertainties. (2) Real Option theory, Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic optimization techniques are applied to obtain optimal modularized investment decisions for hydrogen tri-generation systems in wastewater treatment facilities, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. (3) Public Private Partnership (PPP) financing concept coupled with investment horizon approach are applied to estimate public and private parties' revenue shares from a community-level micro-grid project over the course of assets' lifetime considering their optimal operation under uncertainty.

Assessing Susceptibility to Age-Related Macular Degeneration With Genetic Markers and Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuhong; Zeng, Jiexi; Zhao, Chao; Wang, Kevin; Trood, Elizabeth; Buehler, Jeanette; Weed, Matthew; Kasuga, Daniel; Bernstein, Paul S.; Hughes, Guy; Fu, Victoria; Chin, Jessica; Lee, Clara; Crocker, Maureen; Bedell, Matthew; Salasar, Francesca; Yang, Zhenglin; Goldbaum, Michael; Ferreyra, Henry; Freeman, William R.; Kozak, Igor; Zhang, Kang

2014-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the independent and joint effects of genetic factors and environmental variables on advanced forms of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including geographic atrophy and choroidal neovascularization, and to develop a predictive model with genetic and environmental factors included. Methods Demographic information, including age at onset, smoking status, and body mass index, was collected for 1844 participants. Genotypes were evaluated for 8 variants in 5 genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed to generate a risk predictive model. Results All genetic variants showed a strong association with AMD. Multivariate odds ratios were 3.52 (95% confidence interval, 2.08-5.94) for complement factor H, CFH rs1061170 CC, 4.21 (2.30-7.70) for CFH rs2274700 CC, 0.46 (0.27-0.80) for C2 rs9332739 CC/CG, 0.44 (0.30-0.66) for CFB rs641153 TT/CT, 10.99 (6.04-19.97) for HTRA1/LOC387715 rs10490924 TT, and 2.66 (1.43-4.96) for C3 rs2230199 GG. Smoking was independently associated with advanced AMD after controlling for age, sex, body mass index, and all genetic variants. Conclusion CFH confers more risk to the bilaterality of geographic atrophy, whereas HTRA1/LOC387715 contributes more to the bilaterality of choroidal neovascularization. C3 confers more risk for geographic atrophy than choroidal neovascularization. Risk models with combined genetic and environmental factors have notable discrimination power. Clinical Relevance Early detection and risk prediction of AMD could help to improve the prognosis of AMD and to reduce the outcome of blindness. Targeting high-risk individuals for surveillance and clinical interventions may help reduce disease burden. PMID:21402993

The Association between Triglyceride/High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio and All-Cause Mortality in Acute Coronary Syndrome after Coronary Revascularization

PubMed Central

Wan, Ke; Zhao, Jianxun; Huang, Hao; Zhang, Qing; Chen, Xi; Zeng, Zhi; Zhang, Li; Chen, Yucheng

2015-01-01

Aims High triglycerides (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are cardiovascular risk factors. A positive correlation between elevated TG/HDL-C ratio and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events exists in women. However, utility of TG to HDL-C ratio for prediction is unknown among acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods Fasting lipid profiles, detailed demographic data, and clinical data were obtained at baseline from 416 patients with ACS after coronary revascularization. Subjects were stratified into three levels of TG/HDL-C. We constructed multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 3 years using log TG to HDL-C ratio as a predictor variable and analyzing traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We constructed a logistic regression model for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) to prove that the TG/HDL-C ratio is a risk factor. Results The subject’s mean age was 64 ± 11 years; 54.5% were hypertensive, 21.8% diabetic, and 61.0% current or prior smokers. TG/HDL-C ratio ranged from 0.27 to 14.33. During the follow-up period, there were 43 deaths. In multivariate Cox models after adjusting for age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and severity of angiographic coronary disease, patients in the highest tertile of ACS had a 5.32-fold increased risk of mortality compared with the lowest tertile. After adjusting for conventional coronary heart disease risk factors by the logistic regression model, the TG/HDL-C ratio was associated with MACEs. Conclusion The TG to HDL-C ratio is a powerful independent predictor of all-cause mortality and is a risk factor of cardiovascular events. PMID:25880982

Occupational Risk Factors of Lymphohematopoietic Cancer in Rayong Province, Thailand.

PubMed

Punjindasup, Apinya; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Ekpanyaskul, Chatchai

2015-11-01

The Lymphohematopoietic Cancer (LHC) incidence rate in Thailand has been rising over the past decade with unknown etiology, including Rayong province. One hypothesis of LHC risks is exposure to occupational carcinogens. To determine the association of occupational exposure and LHC risks in Rayong province, Thailand. This matched hospital-based case-control study was conducted in a Rayong provincial hospital from September 2009 to January 2013. One LHC case was matched with four controls in gender and age, ±5 years. Demographic data, residential factors, behavioral factors, and occupational exposure-including chemical exposure-were obtained by interviews and collected by occupational health care officers. The risk factor was analyzed by conditional logistic regression and reported in odds ratio with 95% confidence interval. This study found 105 LHC cases which met the inclusion criteria and were included in the study, yielding a 66% cover rate of cases reported in the database. The histology of LHC were 51 leukemia cases (47.7%), 43 lymphoma cases (42.0%), and 11 multiple myeloma cases (10.3%). The results revealed that occupational exposure to pesticide and smoke were statistically significantly associated with LHC with adjusted ORs 2.26 (95% CI 1.30-3.91) and 1.99 (95% CI = 1.13-3.51), respectively. When stratified to histological subtype of LHC by WHO 2000, leukemia was statistically significantly associated with occupational exposure to smoke, adjusted ORs 2.43 (95% CI 1.11-5.36), with occupational pesticide exposure a significant risk of lymphoma, adjusted ORs 4.69 (95% CI 2.01-10.96). However, neither fumes, wood dust, working outdoors, cleaners, contact with animals, petroleum products and chlorine; nor occupational exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as benzene or organic solvents, were statistically significant risk factors of LHC. In addition, there were no significant risks in the demographic data, residential factors, and behavioral factors. Occupational exposure to pesticides and smoke were important occupational risks in developing LHC in Rayong province. However, the ability or power to detect this problem due to the small sample size and recall bias from the study design could not be excluded.

Radiogenomics: a systems biology approach to understanding genetic risk factors for radiotherapy toxicity ?

PubMed Central

Herskind, Carsten; Talbot, Christopher J.; Kerns, Sarah L.; Veldwijk, Marlon R.; Rosenstein, Barry S.; West, Catharine M. L.

2016-01-01

Adverse reactions in normal tissue after radiotherapy (RT) limit the dose that can be given to tumour cells. Since 80% of individual variation in clinical response is estimated to be caused by patient-related factors, identifying these factors might allow prediction of patients with increased risk of developing severe reactions. While inactivation of cell renewal is considered a major cause of toxicity in early-reacting normal tissues, complex interactions involving multiple cell types, cytokines, and hypoxia seem important for late reactions. Here, we review ‘omics’ approaches such as screening of genetic polymorphisms or gene expression analysis, and assess the potential of epigenetic factors, posttranslational modification, signal transduction, and metabolism. Furthermore, functional assays have suggested possible associations with clinical risk of adverse reaction. Pathway analysis incorporating different ‘omics’ approaches may be more efficient in identifying critical pathways than pathway analysis based on single ‘omics’ data sets. Integrating these pathways with functional assays may be powerful in identifying multiple subgroups of RT patients characterized by different mechanisms. Thus ‘omics’ and functional approaches may synergize if they are integrated into radiogenomics ‘systems biology’ to facilitate the goal of individualised radiotherapy. PMID:26944314

Managing Financial Risk to Hydropower in Snow Dominated Systems: A Hetch Hetchy Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, A. L.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Hydropower generation in snow dominated systems is vulnerable to severe shortfalls in years with low snowpack. Meanwhile, generators are also vulnerable to variability in electricity demand and wholesale electricity prices, both of which can be impacted by factors such as temperature and natural gas price. Year-to-year variability in these underlying stochastic variables leads to financial volatility and the threat of low revenue periods, which can be highly disruptive for generators with large fixed operating costs and debt service. In this research, the Hetch Hetchy Power system is used to characterize financial risk in a snow dominated hydropower system. Owned and operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, Hetch Hetchy generates power for its own municipal operations and sells excess power to irrigation districts, as well as on the wholesale market. This investigation considers the effects of variability in snowpack, temperature, and natural gas price on Hetch Hetchy Power's yearly revenues. This information is then used to evaluate the effectiveness of various financial risk management tools for hedging against revenue variability. These tools are designed to mitigate against all three potential forms of financial risk (i.e. low hydropower generation, low electricity demand, and low/high electricity price) and include temperature-based derivative contracts, natural gas price-based derivative contracts, and a novel form of snowpack-based index insurance contract. These are incorporated into a comprehensive risk management portfolio, along with self-insurance in which the utility buffers yearly revenue volatility using a contingency fund. By adaptively managing the portfolio strategy, a utility can efficiently spread yearly risks over a multi-year time horizon. The Borg Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm is used to generate a set of Pareto optimal portfolio strategies, which are used to compare the tradeoffs in objectives such as expected revenues, low revenues, revenue volatility, and portfolio complexity.

The Risk Assessment Study for Electric Power Marketing Competitiveness Based on Cloud Model and TOPSIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Cunbin; Wang, Yi; Lin, Shuaishuai

2017-09-01

With the rapid development of the energy internet and the deepening of the electric power reform, the traditional marketing mode of electric power does not apply to most of electric power enterprises, so must seek a breakthrough, however, in the face of increasingly complex marketing information, how to make a quick, reasonable transformation, makes the electric power marketing competitiveness assessment more accurate and objective becomes a big problem. In this paper, cloud model and TOPSIS method is proposed. Firstly, build the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation index system. Then utilize the cloud model to transform the qualitative evaluation of the marketing data into quantitative values and use the entropy weight method to weaken the subjective factors of evaluation index weight. Finally, by TOPSIS method the closeness degrees of alternatives are obtained. This method provides a novel solution for the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation. Through the case analysis the effectiveness and feasibility of this model are verified.

Gender differences in attitudes toward nuclear power: a multivariate explanation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baxter, R.K.

1987-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender differences in attitudes toward nuclear power and to discover what factors account for these differences. The marginality explanation for these differences suggest that women have less-favorable attitudes toward nuclear power because they are less concerned about energy supplies and economic growth and are less convinced of the benefits of nuclear power for society than are men. The irrationality explanation holds that women are less favorable toward nuclear power because they are less knowledgeable about this technology than are men. The lay-rationality explanation argues that people form attitudes toward nuclear power whichmore » are consistent with their relevant beliefs, attitudes and values; thus, this explanation suggests that women's unfavorable attitudes toward nuclear power stem from greater concern about environmental protection, exposing society to risk, and lower faith in science and technology. Data for this study were collected via a mail questionnaire administered to a state wide sample of Washington residents (n= 696).« less

State of the World: 1987. A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress toward a Sustainable Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.; And Others

This book was developed to highlight the risks that confront societies, and to indicate the most promising avenues for preemptive policies and actions. The document contains chapters on: (1) the emergence of change; (2) analyzing demographic factors; (3) assessing the future of urbanization; (4) reassessing nuclear power (including an analysis of…

Quantifying Risk for Decentralized Offensive Cyber Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

information. Additionally, radio communications equipment were reevaluated in order to provide longer ranges, last longer on battery power, and be...every other device monitoring that radio frequency . Additionally, wireless signals are limited by distance, the construction materials in walls... communications , socio-psychological, and personality factors in the maintenance of crew coordination. Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine, 53( 11

Risk Factors for Full- and Partial-Syndrome Early Adolescent Eating Disorders: A Population-Based Pregnancy Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Karina L.; Byrne, Susan M.; Forbes, David; Oddy, Wendy H.

2009-01-01

A sample of 14-year-old boys and girls were studied using previously collected biomedical, familial, antenatal, demographic, and social data to identify prospective predictors of eating disorders. Findings suggest that parents' perceptions on their child's weight were more powerful predictors of the development of eating disorders compared to…

Child Maltreatment, Bullying, Gender-Based Harassment, and Adolescent Dating Violence: Making the Connections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolfe, David A.; Crooks, Claire C.; Chiodo, Debbie; Jaffe, Peter

2009-01-01

Learning to relate to others begins at birth and carries forward to new relationships, which is why child maltreatment and exposure to intimate partner violence have emerged as powerful risk factors for future coercive and hostile relationship patterns. Although not inevitable, it is more likely that children who are victims of maltreatment will…

Assessing and Treating Aggression and Conduct Problems in Schools: Implications from the Coping Power Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Nicole P.; Boxmeyer, Caroline L.; Baden, Rachel; Stromeyer, Sara; Minney, Jessica A.; Mushtaq, Asia; Lochman, John E.

2011-01-01

Children with high levels of aggressive behavior and conduct problems create major management problems in school settings and interfere with the learning environment of their classmates and with their own academic achievement. A contextual social-cognitive model can provide a framework for understanding risk factors involved in the development and…

Research on Risk Management and Power Supplying Enterprise Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jianfei; Wang, Yige

2017-09-01

This paper derived from the background that electric power enterprises strengthen their risk management under requirements of the government. For the power industry, we explained the risk management theory, analysed current macro environment as well as basic situation, then classified and interpreted the main risks. In a case study on a power bureau, we established a risk management system based on deep understanding about the characteristics of its organization system and risk management function. Then, we focused on risks in operation as well as incorrupt government construction to give a more effective framework of the risk management system. Finally, we came up with the problems and specific countermeasures in risk management, which provided a reference for other electric power enterprises.

Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

PubMed

Burgess, Stephen; Scott, Robert A; Timpson, Nicholas J; Davey Smith, George; Thompson, Simon G

2015-07-01

Finding individual-level data for adequately-powered Mendelian randomization analyses may be problematic. As publicly-available summarized data on genetic associations with disease outcomes from large consortia are becoming more abundant, use of published data is an attractive analysis strategy for obtaining precise estimates of the causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. We detail the necessary steps for conducting Mendelian randomization investigations using published data, and present novel statistical methods for combining data on the associations of multiple (correlated or uncorrelated) genetic variants with the risk factor and outcome into a single causal effect estimate. A two-sample analysis strategy may be employed, in which evidence on the gene-risk factor and gene-outcome associations are taken from different data sources. These approaches allow the efficient identification of risk factors that are suitable targets for clinical intervention from published data, although the ability to assess the assumptions necessary for causal inference is diminished. Methods and guidance are illustrated using the example of the causal effect of serum calcium levels on fasting glucose concentrations. The estimated causal effect of a 1 standard deviation (0.13 mmol/L) increase in calcium levels on fasting glucose (mM) using a single lead variant from the CASR gene region is 0.044 (95 % credible interval -0.002, 0.100). In contrast, using our method to account for the correlation between variants, the corresponding estimate using 17 genetic variants is 0.022 (95 % credible interval 0.009, 0.035), a more clearly positive causal effect.

Risk factors for consecutive exotropia after vertical rectus transposition for esotropic Duane retraction syndrome.

PubMed

Velez, Federico G; Laursen, Jessica K; Pineles, Stacy L

2011-08-01

To define risk factors for postoperative exotropia after vertical rectus transposition (VRT) for Duane syndrome. The records of patients with Duane syndrome who underwent augmented VRT were retrospectively reviewed; those with postoperative exotropia (study group) were compared with those with postoperative esotropia/orthotropia (controls). A total of 51 patients were included, of whom 14 were exotropic postoperatively. Of the 14, 6 became exotropic after augmented VRT, and 8 who were initially esotropic became exotropic after subsequent medial rectus muscle (MR) recession. Study subjects were significantly younger (2 ± 2 years vs 6 ± 10 years, P = 0.04) and demonstrated less restriction on intraoperative forced duction testing than control subjects. Subjects who became exotropic after MR muscle recession had significantly less esotropia at near (5.2(Δ) ± 6.5(Δ) vs 18.4 (Δ) ± 7.9(Δ) esotropia, respectively; P = 0.005) and in adduction (1(Δ) ± 2(Δ) exotropia vs 3(Δ) ± 4(Δ) esotropia, respectively; P = 0.02) than control patients who also underwent VRT and MR muscle recession. Forced duction testing was also significantly different among these groups (P = 0.03). Risk factors for exotropia after augmented VRT include younger age and less restriction on forced duction testing. Additional risk factors for exotropia after VRT and subsequent MR muscle recession include preoperative exotropia in adduction and smaller deviation at near. These factors may be useful in distinguishing patients at risk, allowing for consideration of less powerful procedures. Copyright © 2011 American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating environmental equity, energy and sustainability: A spatial-temporal study of electric power generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touche, George Earl

The theoretical scope of this dissertation encompasses the ecological factors of equity and energy. Literature important to environmental justice and sustainability are reviewed, and a general integration of global concepts is delineated. The conceptual framework includes ecological integrity, quality human development, intra- and inter-generational equity and risk originating from human economic activity and modern energy production. The empirical focus of this study concentrates on environmental equity and electric power generation within the United States. Several designs are employed while using paired t-tests, independent t-tests, zero-order correlation coefficients and regression coefficients to test seven sets of hypotheses. Examinations are conducted at the census tract level within Texas and at the state level across the United States. At the community level within Texas, communities that host coal or natural gas utility power plants and corresponding comparison communities that do not host such power plants are tested for compositional differences. Comparisons are made both before and after the power plants began operating for purposes of assessing outcomes of the siting process and impacts of the power plants. Relationships between the compositions of the hosting communities and the risks and benefits originating from the observed power plants are also examined. At the statewide level across the United States, relationships between statewide composition variables and risks and benefits originating from statewide electric power generation are examined. Findings indicate the existence of some limited environmental inequities, but they do not indicate disparities that confirm the general thesis of environmental racism put forth by environmental justice advocates. Although environmental justice strategies that would utilize Title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the disparate impact standard do not appear to be applicable, some findings suggest potential inequities in institutional practices involving environmental compliance, monitoring and enforcement that are hardly justifiable within the context of market dynamics.

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes “bad news” for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices.

PubMed

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes "bad news" for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

Prevalence of traditional and novel markers of cardiovascular disease risk in Scottish adolescents: socioeconomic effects.

PubMed

Buchan, Duncan S; Ollis, Stewart; Thomas, Non-Eleri; Simpson, Alan; Young, John D; Cooper, Stephen-Mark; Malina, Robert M; Cockcroft, John R; Baker, Julien S

2012-10-01

Information on the health status and physical activity of Scottish adolescents is limited. This study examines the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in Scottish adolescents by socioeconomic status (SES). Participants were recruited from two high schools that differed in the SES of the students in attendance. The sample included 73 boys and 34 girls (16.4 ± 0.6 years). Variables included anthropometry, physical activity, physical fitness, blood pressure, diet, and 11 metabolic markers of CVD risk. Significant sex differences (P ≤ 0.01) were noted for stature, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular power, sprint speed, and several CVD risk factors: high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Boys from a lower SES had significantly higher levels of glucose and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) but lower levels of adiponectin compared with boys from a higher SES. Girls from a lower SES had significantly (P ≤ 0.01) higher glucose and PAI-1 levels but lower levels of insulin and adiponectin than girls from a higher SES. High fat diets, low physical activity levels, and elevated CRP and total cholesterol levels were the CVD risk factors most commonly identified as being at-risk levels in this cohort, regardless of sex or SES. SES differences were not consistently apparent, but several CVD risk factors were identified as elevated in this sample of adolescents, regardless of sex or SES.

An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

PubMed

Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

2013-01-01

Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

Differential diagnosis between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors utilizing ultrasound parameters.

PubMed

Morii, Takeshi; Kishino, Tomonori; Shimamori, Naoko; Motohashi, Mitsue; Ohnishi, Hiroaki; Honya, Keita; Aoyagi, Takayuki; Tajima, Takashi; Ichimura, Shoichi

2018-01-01

Preoperative discrimination between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors is critical for the prevention of excess application of magnetic resonance imaging and biopsy as well as unplanned resection. Although ultrasound, including power Doppler imaging, is an easy, noninvasive, and cost-effective modality for screening soft tissue tumors, few studies have investigated reliable discrimination between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors. To establish a modality for discrimination between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors using ultrasound, we extracted the significant risk factors for malignancy based on ultrasound information from 40 malignant and 56 benign pathologically diagnosed soft tissue tumors and established a scoring system based on these risk factors. The maximum size, tumor margin, and vascularity evaluated using ultrasound were extracted as significant risk factors. Using the odds ratio from a multivariate regression model, a scoring system was established. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed a high area under the curve value (0.85), confirming the accuracy of the scoring system. Ultrasound is a useful modality for establishing the differential diagnosis between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors.

Estimating Wisconsin asthma prevalence using clinical electronic health records and public health data.

PubMed

Tomasallo, Carrie D; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Tandias, Aman; Chang, Timothy S; Cowan, Kelly J; Guilbert, Theresa W

2014-01-01

We compared a statewide telephone health survey with electronic health record (EHR) data from a large Wisconsin health system to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin. We developed frequency tables and logistic regression models using Wisconsin Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and University of Wisconsin primary care clinic data. We compared adjusted odds ratios (AORs) from each model. Between 2007 and 2009, the EHR database contained 376,000 patients (30,000 with asthma), and 23,000 (1850 with asthma) responded to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone survey. AORs for asthma were similar in magnitude and direction for the majority of covariates, including gender, age, and race/ethnicity, between survey and EHR models. The EHR data had greater statistical power to detect associations than did survey data, especially in pediatric and ethnic populations, because of larger sample sizes. EHRs can be used to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin adults and children. EHR data may improve public health chronic disease surveillance using high-quality data at the local level to better identify areas of disparity and risk factors and guide education and health care interventions.

The Krümmel (Germany) Childhood Leukaemia Cluster: a review and update.

PubMed

Grosche, B; Kaatsch, P; Heinzow, B; Wichmann, H-E

2017-12-01

The debate surrounding possible adverse health effects from the civil use of nuclear power under normal operating conditions has been on-going since its introduction. It was particularly intensified by the detection of three leukaemia clusters near nuclear installations, i.e. near the reprocessing plants in Sellafield and Dounreay, UK, and near the Krümmel nuclear power plant, Germany, the last of which commenced between 1990 and 1991 and was first described in 1992; it continued until 2003, and an elevated risk up to 2005 has been reported in the literature. A number of expert commissions and working groups were set up by the governments of the German federal states of Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein to investigate the possible causes of the cluster. An overview of the many risk factors that were investigated as a possible explanation of the Krümmel cluster is given here, focussing on radiation, but also including other risk factors. Further, results from related epidemiological and cytogenetic studies are described. In summary, the cause of the occurrence of the Krümmel cluster has to be considered as unknown. Further research on the causes of childhood leukaemia is needed, focussing on epigenetics and on gene-environment interaction. An update of the leukaemia incidence around the Krümmel site shows that the incidence rates are now comparable to the average rate in Germany.

Residential Exposure to Natural Background Radiation and Risk of Childhood Acute Leukemia in France, 1990-2009.

PubMed

Demoury, Claire; Marquant, Fabienne; Ielsch, Géraldine; Goujon, Stéphanie; Debayle, Christophe; Faure, Laure; Coste, Astrid; Laurent, Olivier; Guillevic, Jérôme; Laurier, Dominique; Hémon, Denis; Clavel, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

Exposures to high-dose ionizing radiation and high-dose rate ionizing radiation are established risk factors for childhood acute leukemia (AL). The risk of AL following exposure to lower doses due to natural background radiation (NBR) has yet to be conclusively determined. AL cases diagnosed over 1990-2009 (9,056 cases) were identified and their municipality of residence at diagnosis collected by the National Registry of Childhood Cancers. The Geocap study, which included the 2,763 cases in 2002-2007 and 30,000 population controls, was used for complementary analyses. NBR exposures were modeled on a fine scale (36,326 municipalities) based on measurement campaigns and geological data. The power to detect an association between AL and dose to the red bone marrow (RBM) fitting UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation) predictions was 92%, 45% and 99% for exposure to natural gamma radiation, radon and total radiation, respectively. AL risk, irrespective of subtype and age group, was not associated with the exposure of municipalities to radon or gamma radiation in terms of yearly exposure at age reached, cumulative exposure or RBM dose. There was no confounding effect of census-based socio-demographic indicators, or environmental factors (road traffic, high voltage power lines, vicinity of nuclear plants) related to AL in the Geocap study. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that residential exposure to NBR increases the risk of AL, despite the large size of the study, fine scale exposure estimates and wide range of exposures over France. However, our results at the time of diagnosis do not rule out a slight association with gamma radiation at the time of birth, which would be more in line with the recent findings in the UK and Switzerland.

Probabilistic models to estimate fire-induced cable damage at nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valbuena, Genebelin R.

Even though numerous PRAs have shown that fire can be a major contributor to nuclear power plant risk, there are some specific areas of knowledge related to this issue, such as the prediction of fire-induced damage to electrical cables and circuits, and their potential effects in the safety of the nuclear power plant, that still constitute a practical enigma, particularly for the lack of approaches/models to perform consistent and objective assessments. This report contains a discussion of three different models to estimate fire-induced cable damage likelihood given a specified fire profile: the kinetic, the heat transfer and the IR "K Factor" model. These models not only are based on statistical analysis of data available in the open literature, but to the greatest extent possible they use physics based principles to describe the underlying mechanism of failures that take place among the electrical cables upon heating due to external fires. The characterization of cable damage, and consequently the loss of functionality of electrical cables in fire is a complex phenomenon that depends on a variety of intrinsic factors such as cable materials and dimensions, and extrinsic factors such as electrical and mechanical loads on the cables, heat flux severity, and exposure time. Some of these factors are difficult to estimate even in a well-characterized fire, not only for the variability related to the unknown material composition and physical arrangements, but also for the lack of objective frameworks and theoretical models to study the behavior of polymeric wire cable insulation under dynamic external thermal insults. The results of this research will (1) help to develop a consistent framework to predict fire-induced cable failure modes likelihood, and (2) develop some guidance to evaluate and/or reduce the risk associated with these failure modes in existing and new power plant facilities. Among the models evaluated, the physics-based heat transfer model takes into account the properties and characteristics of the cables and cable materials, and the characteristics of the thermal insult. This model can be used to estimate the probability of cable damage under different thermal conditions.

Documentation Status as a Contextual Determinant of HIV Risk Among Young Transgender Latinas.

PubMed

Palazzolo, Sarah L; Yamanis, Thespina J; De Jesus, Maria; Maguire-Marshall, Molly; Barker, Suyanna L

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the contextual factors that determine or mitigate vulnerability to HIV among Latina transgender women. Documentation status (legal authorization to live in the United States) has been cited by other studies as a barrier to recruitment or engagement in HIV-related care among immigrant Latinos, but not explored as a determinant of HIV risk for transgender immigrant Latinas. We collaborated with a community-based organization to explore these contextual, including social and structural, factors. In-depth interviews in Spanish captured life histories of eight 18- to 29-year-old transgender Latinas, who collectively self-identify as chicas trans. Codes were assigned deductively from the interview guide, and emerging themes were identified throughout data collection. Most participants migrated to the United States from Central America after experiencing discrimination and violence in their countries of origin. Participants emphasized documentation status as a critical factor in three areas related to social and structural determinants of HIV risk: gender identity expression, access to services, and relationship power dynamics. Chicas trans who gained legal asylum reported greater control over sexual relationships, improved access to services, and less risky employment. Documentation status emerged as a key HIV risk factor for this population. For undocumented transgender Latinas, legal asylum appears to be a promising HIV-related protective factor. Further research could assess whether legal assistance combined with wraparound support services affects HIV prevention for this population.

Documentation Status as a Contextual Determinant of HIV Risk Among Young Transgender Latinas

PubMed Central

Palazzolo, Sarah L.; De Jesus, Maria; Maguire-Marshall, Molly; Barker, Suyanna L.

2016-01-01

Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the contextual factors that determine or mitigate vulnerability to HIV among Latina transgender women. Documentation status (legal authorization to live in the United States) has been cited by other studies as a barrier to recruitment or engagement in HIV-related care among immigrant Latinos, but not explored as a determinant of HIV risk for transgender immigrant Latinas. Methods: We collaborated with a community-based organization to explore these contextual, including social and structural, factors. In-depth interviews in Spanish captured life histories of eight 18- to 29-year-old transgender Latinas, who collectively self-identify as chicas trans. Codes were assigned deductively from the interview guide, and emerging themes were identified throughout data collection. Results: Most participants migrated to the United States from Central America after experiencing discrimination and violence in their countries of origin. Participants emphasized documentation status as a critical factor in three areas related to social and structural determinants of HIV risk: gender identity expression, access to services, and relationship power dynamics. Chicas trans who gained legal asylum reported greater control over sexual relationships, improved access to services, and less risky employment. Conclusions: Documentation status emerged as a key HIV risk factor for this population. For undocumented transgender Latinas, legal asylum appears to be a promising HIV-related protective factor. Further research could assess whether legal assistance combined with wraparound support services affects HIV prevention for this population. PMID:26669583

Strength, power output and symmetry of leg muscles: effect of age and history of falling.

PubMed

Perry, Mark C; Carville, Serena F; Smith, I Christopher H; Rutherford, Olga M; Newham, Di J

2007-07-01

Risk factors for medically unexplained falls may include reduced muscle power, strength and asymmetry in the lower limbs. Conflicting reports exist about strength and there is little information about power and symmetry. Forty-four healthy young people (29.3 +/- 0.6 years), 44 older non-fallers (75.9 +/- 0.6 years), and 34 older fallers (76.4 +/- 0.8 years) were studied. Isometric, concentric and eccentric strength of the knee and ankle muscles and leg extension power were measured bilaterally. The younger group was stronger in all muscles and types of contraction than both older groups (P < 0.02-0.0001). Strength differences between the older groups occasionally reached significance in individual muscles and types of contraction but overall the fallers had 85% of the strength and 79% of the power of the non-fallers (P < 0.001). Young subjects generated more power than both older groups (P < 0.0001) and the fallers generated less than the non-fallers (P = 0.03). Strength symmetry showed an inconsistent age effect in some muscles and some contraction types. This was similar overall in the two older groups. Both older groups had greater asymmetry in power than the young (P < 0.02-0.004). Power asymmetry tended to be greater in the fallers than the non-fallers but this did not reach significance. These data do not support the suggestion that asymmetry of strength and power are associated with either increasing age or fall history. Power output showed clear differences between age groups and fall status and appears to be the most relevant measurement of fall risk and highlights the cumulative effects on function of small changes in strength in individual muscle groups.

Spousal Violence in 5 Transitional Countries: A Population-Based Multilevel Analysis of Individual and Contextual Factors.

PubMed

Ismayilova, Leyla

2015-11-01

I examined the individual- and community-level factors associated with spousal violence in post-Soviet countries. I used population-based data from the Demographic and Health Survey conducted between 2005 and 2012. My sample included currently married women of reproductive age (n = 3932 in Azerbaijan, n = 4053 in Moldova, n = 1932 in Ukraine, n = 4361 in Kyrgyzstan, and n = 4093 in Tajikistan). I selected respondents using stratified multistage cluster sampling. Because of the nested structure of the data, multilevel logistic regressions for survey data were fitted to examine factors associated with spousal violence in the last 12 months. Partner's problem drinking was the strongest risk factor associated with spousal violence in all 5 countries. In Moldova, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, women with greater financial power than their spouses were more likely to experience violence. Effects of community economic deprivation and of empowerment status of women in the community on spousal violence differed across countries. Women living in communities with a high tolerance of violence faced a higher risk of spousal violence in Moldova and Ukraine. In more traditional countries (Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan), spousal violence was lower in conservative communities with patriarchal gender beliefs or higher financial dependency on husbands. My findings underscore the importance of examining individual risk factors in the context of community-level factors and developing individual- and community-level interventions.

Addiction as a Systems Failure: Focus on Adolescence and Smoking

PubMed Central

Baler, Ruben D.; Volkow, Nora D.

2011-01-01

Objective Scientific advances in the field of addiction have forever debunked the notion that addiction reflects a character flaw under voluntary control, demonstrating instead that it is a bona fide disease of the brain. The aim of this review is to go beyond this consensus understanding and explore the most current evidence regarding the vast number of genetic, developmental, and environmental factors whose complex interactions modulate addiction risk and trajectory. Method Focusing on childhood and adolescent smoking as a paradigm, we review the important risk factors for the development of addictions, starting at the level of genetics and closing with a focus on sociocultural and policy factors. Results A critical review of the pertinent literature provides a detailed view of the cumulative power of risk and protection factors across different phenomenological levels to modulate the risk of undesirable outcomes, particularly for young people. The result represents a compelling argument for the need to engage in comprehensive, multilevel approaches to promoting health. Conclusions Today, the field of medicine understands more about disease than about health; however it need not be that way. The view of drug addiction as a systems failure should help refocus our general approach to developing dynamic models and early comprehensive interventions that optimize the ways in which we prevent and treat a complex, developmental disorder such as drug addiction. PMID:21421173

Familial aggregation and linkage analysis with covariates for metabolic syndrome risk factors.

PubMed

Naseri, Parisa; Khodakarim, Soheila; Guity, Kamran; Daneshpour, Maryam S

2018-06-15

Mechanisms of metabolic syndrome (MetS) causation are complex, genetic and environmental factors are important factors for the pathogenesis of MetS In this study, we aimed to evaluate familial and genetic influences on metabolic syndrome risk factor and also assess association between FTO (rs1558902 and rs7202116) and CETP(rs1864163) genes' single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) with low HDL_C in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). The design was a cross-sectional study of 1776 members of 227 randomly-ascertained families. Selected families contained at least one affected metabolic syndrome and at least two members of the family had suffered a loss of HDL_C according to ATP III criteria. In this study, after confirming the familial aggregation with intra-trait correlation coefficients (ICC) of Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the quantitative lipid traits, the genetic linkage analysis of HDL_C was performed using conditional logistic method with adjusted sex and age. The results of the aggregation analysis revealed a higher correlation between siblings than between parent-offspring pairs representing the role of genetic factors in MetS. In addition, the conditional logistic model with covariates showed that the linkage results between HDL_C and three marker, rs1558902, rs7202116 and rs1864163 were significant. In summary, a high risk of MetS was found in siblings confirming the genetic influences of metabolic syndrome risk factor. Moreover, the power to detect linkage increases in the one parameter conditional logistic model regarding the use of age and sex as covariates. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

ICARUSS, the Integrated Care for the Reduction of Secondary Stroke trial: rationale and design of a randomized controlled trial of a multimodal intervention to prevent recurrent stroke in patients with a recent cerebrovascular event, ACTRN = 12611000264987.

PubMed

Joubert, J; Davis, S M; Hankey, G J; Levi, C; Olver, J; Gonzales, G; Donnan, G A

2015-07-01

The majority of strokes, both ischaemic and haemorrhagic, are attributable to a relatively small number of risk factors which are readily manageable in primary care setting. Implementation of best-practice recommendations for risk factor management is calculated to reduce stroke recurrence by around 80%. However, risk factor management in stroke survivors has generally been poor at primary care level. A model of care that supports long-term effective risk factor management is needed. To determine whether the model of Integrated Care for the Reduction of Recurrent Stroke (ICARUSS) will, through promotion of implementation of best-practice recommendations for risk factor management reduce the combined incidence of stroke, myocardial infarction and vascular death in patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) of the brain or eye. A prospective, Australian, multicentre, randomized controlled trial. Academic stroke units in Melbourne, Perth and the John Hunter Hospital, New South Wales. 1000 stroke survivors recruited as from March 2007 with a recent (<3 months) stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic) or a TIA (brain or eye). Randomization and data collection are performed by means of a central computer generated telephone system (IVRS). Exposure to the ICARUSS model of integrated care or usual care. The composite of stroke, MI or death from any vascular cause, whichever occurs first. Risk factor management in the community, depression, quality of life, disability and dementia. With 1000 patients followed up for a median of one-year, with a recurrence rate of 7-10% per year in patients exposed to usual care, the study will have at least 80% power to detect a significant reduction in primary end-points The ICARUSS study aims to recruit and follow up patients between 2007 and 2013 and demonstrate the effectiveness of exposure to the ICARUSS model in stroke survivors to reduce recurrent stroke or vascular events and promote the implementation of best practice risk factor management at primary care level. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Bolivia renewable energy development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, P.

1997-12-01

The author summarizes changes which have occurred in Bolivia in the past year which have had an impact on renewable energy source development. Political changes have included the privatization of power generation and power distribution, and resulted in a new role for state level government and participation by the individual. A National Rural Electrification Plan was adopted in 1996, which stresses the use of GIS analysis and emphasizes factors such as off grid, economic index, population density, maintenance risk, and local organizational structure. The USAID program has chosen to stress economic development, environmental programs, and health over village power programs.more » The national renewables program has adopted a new development direction, with state projects, geothermal projects, and private sector involvement stressed.« less

School bullying perpetration and other childhood risk factors as predictors of adult intimate partner violence perpetration.

PubMed

Falb, Kathryn L; McCauley, Heather L; Decker, Michele R; Gupta, Jhumka; Raj, Anita; Silverman, Jay G

2011-10-01

To assess the relationship between bullying peers as a child and adult intimate partner violence perpetration in a clinic-based sample of adult men. School bullying perpetration and intimate partner violence perpetration are both thought to stem from desire for power and control over others. A cross-sectional survey was conducted between January 2005 and December 2006. Three urban community health centers in Boston, Massachusetts. Men aged 18 to 35 years (n = 1491) seeking services at participating community health centers. School bullying perpetration. Past-year physical or sexual violence perpetration against a female partner (intimate-partner violence [IPV]). Two-fifths of men reported perpetrating school bullying as a child (n = 610; 40.9%). Men who rarely bullied in school were 1.53 times more likely to perpetrate past-year IPV than men who did not bully (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-2.29); this risk was elevated to 3.82 times more likely to perpetrate any past-year IPV for those men who bullied peers frequently (95% CI, 2.55-5.73). The present study indicates that bullying peers in school as a child, especially frequent bullying perpetration, is associated with increased risk for men's perpetration of IPV as an adult. The effect remains strong after controlling for common prior risk factors for both bullying and IPV perpetration. Future research is needed to discern the mechanisms and underlying root causes of abusive behavior, such as power and control, as a means to prevent violence perpetration across settings and life stages.

"If They Could Make Us Disappear, They Would!" Youth and Violence in Cite Soleil, Haiti

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willman, Alys; Marcelin, Louis Herns

2010-01-01

This study explores community-level risk and protective factors for youth violence in Cite Soleil, Port-au-Prince's most violent slum. The youth of Cite Soleil have often been mobilized to violence by powerful actors as tools for achieving political or financial gain. Drawing on a formal survey (N=1,575) and ethnographic data collected between…

Cigarette Smoking among Medical Students in China and Modifiable Risk Factors for Smoking Prevention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Xinguang; Tang, Xiaolan; Stanton, Bonita; Li, Hanwu; Chen, Weiqing

2012-01-01

Purpose: The reduction of tobacco use among medical students is a potentially powerful strategy to reduce tobacco use among future health professionals, who in turn, can have significant impact on tobacco use among patients as well as the general population in China. The goal of this study is to update information on the prevalence of cigarette…

Performance comparison of Islamic and commercial banks in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizud-din, Azimah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Zahid, Zalina

2016-10-01

The steady growth in the size and increase in the number of Islamic banks show that the Islamic banking system is considered as an alternative to the conventional banking system. Due to this, comparisons in term of performance measurements and evaluation of the financial health for both type of banks are essential. The main purpose of this study is to analyse the differences between Islamic and commercial banks performance. Five years secondary data were collected from the annual report for each bank. Return on Asset ratio is chosen as the dependent variable, while capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earning, liquidity and sensitivity to market risk (CAMELS) are the independent variables. Descriptive analyses were done to understand the data. The independent t-test and Mann Whitney test show the differences of Islamic and commercial banks based on the financial variables. The stepwise and hierarchical multiple regressions were used to determine the factor that affects profitability performance of banks. Results show that Islamic banks are better in term of profitability performance, earning power performance, liquidity performance and sensitive to market risk. The factors that affect profitability performance are capital adequacy, earning power and liquidity variable.

A critical source area phosphorus index with topographic transport factors using high resolution LiDAR digital elevation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Ian; Murphy, Paul; Fenton, Owen; Shine, Oliver; Mellander, Per-Erik; Dunlop, Paul; Jordan, Phil

2015-04-01

A new phosphorus index (PI) tool is presented which aims to improve the identification of critical source areas (CSAs) of phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural land to surface waters. In a novel approach, the PI incorporates topographic indices rather than watercourse proximity as proxies for runoff risk, to account for the dominant control of topography on runoff-generating areas and P transport pathways. Runoff propensity and hydrological connectivity are modelled using the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and Network Index (NI) respectively, utilising high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to capture the influence of micro-topographic features on runoff pathways. Additionally, the PI attempts to improve risk estimates of particulate P losses by incorporating an erosion factor that accounts for fine-scale topographic variability within fields. Erosion risk is modelled using the Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition (USPED) model, which integrates DEM-derived upslope contributing area and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) factors. The PI was developed using field, sub-field and sub-catchment scale datasets of P source, mobilisation and transport factors, for four intensive agricultural catchments in Ireland representing different agri-environmental conditions. Datasets included soil test P concentrations, degree of P saturation, soil attributes, land use, artificial subsurface drainage locations, and 2 m resolution LiDAR DEMs resampled from 0.25 m resolution data. All factor datasets were integrated within a Geographical Information System (GIS) and rasterised to 2 m resolution. For each factor, values were categorised and assigned relative risk scores which ranked P loss potential. Total risk scores were calculated for each grid cell using a component formulation, which summed the products of weighted factor risk scores for runoff and erosion pathways. Results showed that the new PI was able to predict in-field risk variability and hence was able to identify CSAs at the sub-field scale. PI risk estimates and component scores were analysed at catchment and subcatchment scales, and validated using measured dissolved, particulate and total P losses at subcatchment snapshot sites and gauging stations at catchment outlets. The new PI provides CSA delineations at higher precision compared to conventional PIs, and more robust P transport risk estimates. The tool can be used to target cost-effective mitigation measures for P management within single farm units and wider catchments.

Cardiovascular Disease, its Risk Factors and Treatment, and Age-related Macular Degeneration: Women’s Health Initiative Sight Exam Ancillary Study

PubMed Central

Klein, Ronald; Deng, Yingzi; Klein, Barbara E. K.; Hyman, Leslie; Seddon, Johanna; Frank, Robert N.; Wallace, Robert B.; Hendrix, Susan L.; Kuppermann, Baruch D.; Langer, Robert D.; Kuller, Lewis; Brunner, Robert; Johnson, Karen C.; Thomas, Asha M.; Haan, Mary

2010-01-01

Purpose To examine the association of cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD risk factors, and CVD treatment with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Design Observational analysis of a randomized clinical trial. Methods Setting The Women’s Health Initiative Sight Examination (WHISE), an ancillary study to the Women’s Health Initiative’s (WHI) clinical trial of hormone replacement therapy. Study Population 4,288 women aged 63 years and older. Observation Procedures Information on CVD and its risk factors were obtained from a standardized questionnaire and examination. Main Outcome Measure AMD as determined by standardized grading of fundus photographs. Results Prevalence of any AMD was 21.4% (n=919). Of those with AMD, 5.8% (n=53) had signs of exudative AMD (n=39) or pure geographic atrophy (n=14), limiting the power to examine associations. Significant associations between late AMD and CVD risk factors were (odds ratio [OR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) older age (1.19, 1.13, 1.27, p < 0.0001), more pack years smoked (1.02 per pack-year smoked, 1.003, 1.03, p = 0.01), systolic blood pressure (0.84 per 10 mmHg, 0.71, 0.995, p = 0.04), report of taking calcium channel blockers (CCB) (2.49, 1.21, 5.12, p = 0.04), self-reported history of diabetes (2.00, 1.01, 3.96, p = 0.05), and greater body mass index (1.05 per 1 kg/m2, 1.001, 1.10, p = 0.05). History of myocardial infarction, stroke, use of statins, or white blood cell were not associated with AMD. Conclusions Results suggest that smoking, use of CCBs, diabetes, and obesity are risk factors for late AMD in women. However, the association of late AMD with systolic blood pressure and the effects of other CVD risk factors on early AMD need to be further explored. PMID:17317391

[Injuries in France: trends and risk factors].

PubMed

Richard, J-B; Thélot, B; Beck, F

2013-06-01

Whatever the type of injury considered, prevention requires an improvement in health services' awareness of risk factors. The Health Barometer is a general population survey conducted in France since 1992 to contribute to surveillance in this field. The survey's statistical power and the numerous health topics included in the questionnaire provide accurate information for healthcare professionals and decision-makers. The Health Barometer 2010 was a nationwide telephone survey of 9110 persons representative of the 15-85-year-old population. One part of the questionnaire detailed injuries which had occurred during the past year. The numerous variables recorded enabled application of logistic regression models to explore risk factors related to different types of injury by age group. The findings were compared with the Health Barometer 2005 data to search for temporal trends of injury prevalence. The data analysis showed that 10.3% of the 15-85-year-olds reported an injury during the past year. This rate was higher than recorded in 2005; the increase was mainly due to domestic accidents and injuries occurring during recreational activities. Both type of injury and risk factors exhibited age-related variability. Domestic accidents and injuries occurring during recreational activities predominated in the older population and were associated with physical or mental health problems (chronic disease, diability, sleep disorders). For younger people, injuries were related to cannabis use, drunkedness, and insufficient sleep. Risk factors were also depended on type of injury: occupational accident-related injuries were linked with social disadvantage (manual worker population) whereas sports injuries were more common in the socially advantaged population. This survey confirms established knowledge and highlights, at different stages of life, new risk factors that contribute to injuries in France. These findings should be helpful for the development of adapted injury prevention programs, by providing a better understanding of the characteristic features of this major public health issue. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Sexual relationship power and depression among HIV-infected women in Rural Uganda.

PubMed

Hatcher, Abigail M; Tsai, Alexander C; Kumbakumba, Elias; Dworkin, Shari L; Hunt, Peter W; Martin, Jeffrey N; Clark, Gina; Bangsberg, David R; Weiser, Sheri D

2012-01-01

Depression is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, increased morbidity, and higher risk of HIV-related death among HIV-infected women. Low sexual relationship power also contributes to HIV risk, but there is limited understanding of how it relates to mental health among HIV-infected women. Participants were 270 HIV-infected women from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary predictor was baseline sexual relationship power as measured by the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS). The primary outcome was depression severity, measured with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL), and a secondary outcome was a functional scale for mental health status (MHS). Adjusted models controlled for socio-demographic factors, CD4 count, alcohol and tobacco use, baseline WHO stage 4 disease, social support, and duration of ART. The mean HSCL score was 1.34 and 23.7% of participants had HSCL scores consistent with probable depression (HSCL>1.75). Compared to participants with low SRPS scores, individuals with both moderate (coefficient b = -0.21; 95%CI, -0.36 to -0.07) and high power (b = -0.21; 95%CI, -0.36 to -0.06) reported decreased depressive symptomology. High SRPS scores halved the likelihood of women meeting criteria for probable depression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44; 95%CI, 0.20 to 0.93). In lagged models, low SRPS predicted subsequent depression severity, but depression did not predict subsequent changes in SPRS. Results were similar for MHS, with lagged models showing SRPS predicts subsequent mental health, but not visa versa. Both Decision-Making Dominance and Relationship Control subscales of SRPS were associated with depression symptom severity. HIV-infected women with high sexual relationship power had lower depression and higher mental health status than women with low power. Interventions to improve equity in decision-making and control within dyadic partnerships are critical to prevent HIV transmission and to optimize mental health of HIV-infected women.

Prospective, population-based study of the transition from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Gilman, Stephen E.; Dupuy, Jamie M.; Perlis, Roy H.

2013-01-01

Objective It is currently not possible to determine which individuals with unipolar depression are at highest risk for a manic episode. This study investigates clinical and psychosocial risk factors for mania among individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD), indicating diagnostic conversion from MDD to bipolar I disorder. Methods We fitted logistic regression models to predict the first onset of a manic episode among 6,214 cases of lifetime MDD according to DSM-IV criteria in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Results Approximately 1 in 20 individuals with MDD transitioned to bipolar disorder during the study's 3-year follow-up period. Demographic risk factors for the transition from MDD to bipolar disorder included younger age, Black race/ethnicity, and less than high school education. Clinical characteristics of depression (e.g., age at first onset, presence of atypical features) were not associated with diagnostic conversion. However, prior psychopathology was associated with the transition to bipolar disorder: history of social phobia (Odds Ratio=2.20; 95% Confidence Interval=1.47, 3.30) and generalized anxiety disorder (OR=1.58; CI=1.06, 2.35). Lastly, we identified environmental stressors over the life course that predicted the transition to bipolar disorder: these include a history of child abuse (OR=1.26; CI=1.12, 1.42) and past-year problems with one's social support group (OR=1.79; CI=1.19, 2.68). The overall predictive power of these risk factors based on a receiver operating curve analysis is modest. Conclusions A wide range of demographic, clinical, and environmental risk factors were identified that indicate a heightened risk for the transition to bipolar disorder. Additional work is needed to further enhance the prediction of bipolar disorder among cases of MDD, and to determine whether interventions targeting these factors could reduce the risk of bipolar disorder. PMID:22394428

Health Risks of Nuclear Power.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Bernard L.

1978-01-01

Deals with the wastes generated in nuclear power plants and the health risks involved as compared to those of wastes generated by coal-fired plants. Concludes that the risks of nuclear power plants are many times smaller than the risks from alternative energy resources. (GA)

Assessment of economic factors affecting the satellite power system. Volume 1: System cost factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

1978-01-01

The factors relevant to SPS costing and selection of preferred SPS satellite configurations were studied. The issues discussed are: (1) consideration of economic factors in the SPS system that relate to selection of SPS satellite configuration; (2) analysis of the proper rate of interest for use in SPS system definition studies; and (3) the impacts of differential inflation on SPS system definition costing procedures. A cost-risk comparison of the SPS satellite configurations showed a significant difference in the levelized cost of power from them. It is concluded, that this difference is the result more of differences in the procedures for assessing costs rather than in the satellite technologies required or of any advantages of one satellite configuration over the other. Analysis of the proper rate of interest for use in SPS system is 4 percent. The major item of differential inflation to be expected over this period of time is the real cost of labor. This cost is likely to double between today and the period of SPS construction.

Effective detection of human leukocyte antigen risk alleles in celiac disease using tag single nucleotide polymorphisms.

PubMed

Monsuur, Alienke J; de Bakker, Paul I W; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Pinto, Dalila; Verduijn, Willem; Romanos, Jihane; Auricchio, Renata; Lopez, Ana; van Heel, David A; Crusius, J Bart A; Wijmenga, Cisca

2008-05-28

The HLA genes, located in the MHC region on chromosome 6p21.3, play an important role in many autoimmune disorders, such as celiac disease (CD), type 1 diabetes (T1D), rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis and others. Known HLA variants that confer risk to CD, for example, include DQA1*05/DQB1*02 (DQ2.5) and DQA1*03/DQB1*0302 (DQ8). To diagnose the majority of CD patients and to study disease susceptibility and progression, typing these strongly associated HLA risk factors is of utmost importance. However, current genotyping methods for HLA risk factors involve many reactions, and are complicated and expensive. We sought a simple experimental approach using tagging SNPs that predict the CD-associated HLA risk factors. Our tagging approach exploits linkage disequilibrium between single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) and the CD-associated HLA risk factors DQ2.5 and DQ8 that indicate direct risk, and DQA1*0201/DQB1*0202 (DQ2.2) and DQA1*0505/DQB1*0301 (DQ7) that attribute to the risk of DQ2.5 to CD. To evaluate the predictive power of this approach, we performed an empirical comparison of the predicted DQ types, based on these six tag SNPs, with those executed with current validated laboratory typing methods of the HLA-DQA1 and -DQB1 genes in three large cohorts. The results were validated in three European celiac populations. Using this method, only six SNPs were needed to predict the risk types carried by >95% of CD patients. We determined that for this tagging approach the sensitivity was >0.991, specificity >0.996 and the predictive value >0.948. Our results show that this tag SNP method is very accurate and provides an excellent basis for population screening for CD. This method is broadly applicable in European populations.

Spinal Cord Injuries in Wave-Riding Sports: The Influence of Environmental and Sport-Specific Factors.

PubMed

Falconi, Audrey; Flick, David; Ferguson, Jason; Glorioso, John E

2016-01-01

Spinal cord injury is a nonfatal, catastrophic consequence of wave-riding sports. With surfing at the core, a multitude of activities have evolved that attempt to harness the power of ocean waves. The unique qualities of each wave-riding sport, in combination with the environmental factors of the ocean, define the risk for potential injuries. As wave-riding sports have become more advanced, athletes continue to push physical barriers. Taller waves are attempted while incorporating aerial maneuvers, all without protective equipment.

Interorganizational Systems Adoption: A Socio-Technical Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunker, Deborah; Kautz, Karlheinz; Pyne, Clayton

This paper discusses a case study of an electronic data interchange (EDI) interorganizational system (IOS) adoption project between two organizations (ProvideCo and BuildCo) highlighting that IOS adoption is not only technological in nature and orientation but that organizational factors also play their part. As a result of the case analysis and key findings, an interorganizational collaboration model (Barratt 2004) is amended to explain and highlight the effect of organizational factors on IOS adoption. The amended model includes the relationship of technology (IOS) adoption to cross-functional collaborative activities and risk, power, opportunism, and trust.

The Origin and Role of Trust in Local Policy Elites' Perceptions of High-Voltage Power Line Installations in the State of Arkansas.

PubMed

Tumlison, Creed; Moyer, Rachael M; Song, Geoboo

2017-05-01

The debate over an installation of high-voltage power lines (HVPLs) has been intense, particularly in northwest Arkansas. Detractors claim that the installation will negatively affect both the natural environment and the local economy, which contains a large tourism component. By contrast, those in favor of installing HVPLs claim that the installation is necessary in order to reliably support the increasing demand for electric power. Using original data collected from a recent statewide Internet survey of 420 local policy elites in Arkansas, this article focuses on two key aspects. First, we examine how local policy elites' perceptions of risks versus benefits of HVPL installation in their communities are influenced by their levels of trust toward information provided by various sources (e.g., energy industry, environmental groups, and government). Second, we utilize cultural theory to explain how the cultural worldviews of policy elites--specifically, egalitarianism, individualism, hierarchism, and fatalism--shape these levels of trust and HVPL benefit-risk perceptions, while controlling for other factors claimed by previous literature, including levels of knowledge on energy-related issues and demographic characteristics. In general, our analysis indicates that policy elites' value-oriented formation of HVPL benefit-risk perceptions is partially due to the influence cultural values have on trust in information sources. We conclude this article by discussing broader implications for the origin and role of trust in policy elites' decisions throughout the policy-making process. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Microcystins from tap water could be a risk factor for liver and colorectal cancer: a risk intensified by global change.

PubMed

Martínez Hernández, Juan; López-Rodas, V; Costas, E

2009-05-01

An increasing number of people drink water from fresh water supply reservoirs. However, with the global change a lot of reservoirs become eutrophic, which facilitates the occurrence of toxin-producing cyanobacterial blooms. Microcystins (powerful hepatotoxic water-soluble heptapeptides) are the most important cyanobacterial toxins affecting humans. High doses of microcystins produce hepatic necrosis. Consequently, WHO Guidelines limit microcystins to 1 ppb in drinking waters. However, microcystins are present frequently in tap water at lower doses. Here, we hypothesized that chronic consume of tap water containing low doses of microcystins may be a risk factor for liver and colorectal cancer. Two kinds of evidences support this hypothesis. On one hand some epidemiological data (mainly in China). On the other hand, the molecular mechanism of microcystins toxicity (inhibition of protein phosphatases PP1 and PP2) is just like okadaic acid (a potent tumor promoter). Cancer risk from drinking water is certainly less than smoking, occupational exposures or some foods. But it is significant and with a rapid increase of toxic cyanobacterial blooms by eutrophycation, become more frequent.

[Executive functioning and motivation in preschool children at risk for learning difficulties in mathematics].

PubMed

Presentación-Herrero, M Jesús; Mercader-Ruiz, Jessica; Siegenthaler-Hierro, Rebeca; Fernández-Andrés, Inmaculada; Miranda-Casas, Ana

2015-02-25

Early identification of the factors involved in the development of learning difficulties in mathematics is essential to be able to understand their origin and implement successful interventions. This study analyses the capacity of executive functioning and of variables from the motivational belief system to differentiate and classify preschool children with and without risk of having difficulties in mathematics. A total of 146 subjects from the third year of preschool education took part in the study, divided into risk/no risk according to the score obtained on the operations subtest of the TEDI-MATH test. Working memory (verbal and visuospatial) and inhibition (with auditory and visual stimuli) neuropsychological tasks were applied. Teachers filled in a questionnaire on the children's motivation with regard to learning. Significant differences were found between the two groups on the working memory and inhibition-auditory factors, as well as on all the motivation variables. The results also show a similar power of classification, with percentages above 80%, for both groups of variables. The implications of these findings for educational practice are discussed.

Carpal tunnel syndrome: the role of occupational factors.

PubMed

Palmer, Keith T

2011-02-01

Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a fairly common condition in working-aged people, sometimes caused by physical occupational activities, such as repeated and forceful movements of the hand and wrist or use of hand-held, powered, vibratory tools. Symptoms may be prevented or alleviated by primary control measures at work, and some cases of disease are compensable. Following a general description of the disorder, its epidemiology and some of the difficulties surrounding diagnosis, this review focusses on the role of occupational factors in causation of CTS and factors that can mitigate risk. Areas of uncertainty, debate and research interest are emphasised where relevant. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender inequality increases women's risk of hiv infection in Moshi, Tanzania.

PubMed

Sa, Zhihong; Larsen, Ulla

2008-07-01

This study examined the hypothesis that multiple dimensions of gender inequality increase women's risk for HIV infection using a population-based survey of 1418 women aged 20 to 44 in Moshi, Tanzania. Three forms of HIV exposures were assessed reflecting gender power imbalance: economic exposures (age difference between partners and partner's contributions to children's expenses), physical exposures (coerced first sex and intimate partner violence) and social exposures (ever had problems conceiving). Behavioural risk factors included number of sexual partners for women in the last three years, partner had other wives or girlfriends, non-use of condom and alcohol use at least once a week in the last 12 months. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a woman had a significantly elevated risk for HIV if she had a partner more than 10 years older (OR=2.5), her partner made low financial contributions to children's expenses (OR=1.7), or she experienced coerced first sex before age 18 years (OR=2.0) even after taking into account the effects of risk behaviour factors. The association between ever had problem conceiving and HIV infection was explained away by risk behaviour factors. The findings lend support to the hypothesis that economic deprivation and experience of sexual violence increase women's vulnerability to HIV, providing further evidence for extending the behavioural approach to HIV interventions to incorporate women's economic empowerment, elimination of gender-based violence and promotion of changing attitudes and behaviours among men.

Modelling typhoid risk in Dhaka Metropolitan Area of Bangladesh: the role of socio-economic and environmental factors

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Developing countries in South Asia, such as Bangladesh, bear a disproportionate burden of diarrhoeal diseases such as Cholera, Typhoid and Paratyphoid. These seem to be aggravated by a number of social and environmental factors such as lack of access to safe drinking water, overcrowdedness and poor hygiene brought about by poverty. Some socioeconomic data can be obtained from census data whilst others are more difficult to elucidate. This study considers a range of both census data and spatial data from other sources, including remote sensing, as potential predictors of typhoid risk. Typhoid data are aggregated from hospital admission records for the period from 2005 to 2009. The spatial and statistical structures of the data are analysed and Principal Axis Factoring is used to reduce the degree of co-linearity in the data. The resulting factors are combined into a Quality of Life index, which in turn is used in a regression model of typhoid occurrence and risk. Results The three Principal Factors used together explain 87% of the variance in the initial candidate predictors, which eminently qualifies them for use as a set of uncorrelated explanatory variables in a linear regression model. Initial regression result using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) were disappointing, this was explainable by analysis of the spatial autocorrelation inherent in the Principal factors. The use of Geographically Weighted Regression caused a considerable increase in the predictive power of regressions based on these factors. The best prediction, determined by analysis of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was found when the three factors were combined into a quality of life index, using a method previously published by others, and had a coefficient of determination of 73%. Conclusions The typhoid occurrence/risk prediction equation was used to develop the first risk map showing areas of Dhaka Metropolitan Area whose inhabitants are at greater or lesser risk of typhoid infection. This, coupled with seasonal information on typhoid incidence also reported in this paper, has the potential to advise public health professionals on developing prevention strategies such as targeted vaccination. PMID:23497202

Modelling typhoid risk in Dhaka metropolitan area of Bangladesh: the role of socio-economic and environmental factors.

PubMed

Corner, Robert J; Dewan, Ashraf M; Hashizume, Masahiro

2013-03-16

Developing countries in South Asia, such as Bangladesh, bear a disproportionate burden of diarrhoeal diseases such as cholera, typhoid and paratyphoid. These seem to be aggravated by a number of social and environmental factors such as lack of access to safe drinking water, overcrowdedness and poor hygiene brought about by poverty. Some socioeconomic data can be obtained from census data whilst others are more difficult to elucidate. This study considers a range of both census data and spatial data from other sources, including remote sensing, as potential predictors of typhoid risk. Typhoid data are aggregated from hospital admission records for the period from 2005 to 2009. The spatial and statistical structures of the data are analysed and principal axis factoring is used to reduce the degree of co-linearity in the data. The resulting factors are combined into a quality of life index, which in turn is used in a regression model of typhoid occurrence and risk. The three principal factors used together explain 87% of the variance in the initial candidate predictors, which eminently qualifies them for use as a set of uncorrelated explanatory variables in a linear regression model. Initial regression result using ordinary least squares (OLS) were disappointing, this was explainable by analysis of the spatial autocorrelation inherent in the principal factors. The use of geographically weighted regression caused a considerable increase in the predictive power of regressions based on these factors. The best prediction, determined by analysis of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was found when the three factors were combined into a quality of life index, using a method previously published by others, and had a coefficient of determination of 73%. The typhoid occurrence/risk prediction equation was used to develop the first risk map showing areas of Dhaka metropolitan area whose inhabitants are at greater or lesser risk of typhoid infection. This, coupled with seasonal information on typhoid incidence also reported in this paper, has the potential to advise public health professionals on developing prevention strategies such as targeted vaccination.

Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island Genetic Isolate Identifies Candidate Genes for CVD Risk Traits

PubMed Central

Benton, Miles C.; Lea, Rod A.; Macartney-Coxson, Donia; Carless, Melanie A.; Göring, Harald H.; Bellis, Claire; Hanna, Michelle; Eccles, David; Chambers, Geoffrey K.; Curran, Joanne E.; Harper, Jacquie L.; Blangero, John; Griffiths, Lyn R.

2013-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10−7) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations. PMID:24314549

Is This Kid a Likely Experimenter or a Likely Persister? An Analysis of Individual-Level and Family-Level Risk Factors Predicting Multiple Offending Among a Group of Adjudicated Youth.

PubMed

Buker, Hasan; Erbay, Ayhan

2018-02-01

To implement effective diversion programs and determine for a well-suited intervention strategy, ascertaining who, among the adjudicated youth, is more likely to involve in multiple offending, rather than desisting after an initial delinquent behavior, is of great significance. The overall objective of this study, therefore, is to contribute to the existing knowledge on assessing the risks for multiple offending during juvenile adjudication processes. In this regard, this study examined the predicting powers of several individual-level and family-level risk factors on multiple offending during adolescence, based on a data set derived from court-ordered social examination reports (SERs) on 400 adjudicated youth in Turkey. Two binomial regression models were implemented to test the predictor values of various risk factors from these two domains. Results indicated the following as significant predictors of multiple offending among the subjects: younger age of onset in delinquency, dropping out of school, having delinquent/drug abusing (risky) friends, being not able to share problems with the family, increased number of siblings, and having a domestically migrated family. Conclusively, these findings were compared with the existing literature, and the policy implications and recommendations for future research were discussed.

Potential Genetic Risk Factors for Chronic TMD: Genetic Associations from the OPPERA Case Control Study

PubMed Central

Smith, Shad B.; Maixner, Dylan; Greenspan, Joel; Dubner, Ron; Fillingim, Roger; Ohrbach, Richard; Knott, Charles; Slade, Gary; Bair, Eric; Gibson, Dustin G.; Zaykin, Dmitri V.; Weir, Bruce; Maixner, William; Diatchenko, Luda

2011-01-01

Genetic factors play a role in the etiology of persistent pain conditions, putatively by modulating underlying processes such as nociceptive sensitivity, psychological well-being, inflammation, and autonomic response. However, to date, only a few genes have been associated with temporomandibular disorders (TMD). This study evaluated 358 genes involved in pain processes, comparing allelic frequencies between 166 cases with chronic TMD and 1442 controls enrolled in the OPPERA (Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment) study cooperative agreement. To enhance statistical power, 182 TMD cases and 170 controls from a similar study were included in the analysis. Genotyping was performed using the Pain Research Panel, an Affymetrix gene chip representing 3295 single nucleotide polymorphisms, including ancestry-informative markers that were used to adjust for population stratification. Adjusted associations between genetic markers and TMD case status were evaluated using logistic regression. The OPPERA findings provided evidence supporting previously-reported associations between TMD and two genes: HTR2A and COMT. Other genes were revealed as potential new genetic risk factors for TMD, including NR3C1, CAMK4, CHRM2, IFRD1, and GRK5. While these findings need to be replicated in independent cohorts, the genes potentially represent important markers of risk for TMD and they identify potential targets for therapeutic intervention. PMID:22074755

Aspects of disordered eating continuum in elite high-intensity sports.

PubMed

Sundgot-Borgen, J; Torstveit, M K

2010-10-01

Dieting is an important risk factor for disordered eating and eating disorders. Disordered eating occurs on a continuum from dieting and restrictive eating, abnormal eating behavior, and finally clinical eating disorders. The prevalence of eating disorders is increased in elite athletes and for this group the cause of starting to diet is related to (a) perception of the paradigm of appearance in the specific sport, (b) perceived performance improvements, and (c) sociocultural pressures for thinness or an "ideal" body. Athletes most at risk for disordered eating are those involved in sports emphasizing a thin body size/shape, a high power-to-weight ratio, and/or sports utilizing weight categories, such as in some high-intensity sports. In addition to dieting, personality factors, pressure to lose weight, frequent weight cycling, early start of sport-specific training, overtraining, injuries, and unfortunate coaching behavior, are important risk factors. To prevent disordered eating and eating disorders, the athletes have to practice healthy eating, and the medical staff of teams and parents must be able to recognize symptoms indicating risk for eating disorders. Coaches and leaders must accept that disordered eating can be a problem in the athletic community and that openness regarding this challenge is important. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Windows of Opportunity for Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Phelan, Suzanne

2017-01-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is linked with several acute maternal health risks and long-term development of type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and cardiovascular disease. Intrauterine exposure to GDM similarly increases offspring risk of early life health complications and later disease. GDM recurrence is common, affecting 40–73% of women, and augments associated maternal/fetal/child health risks. Modifiable and independent risk factors for GDM include maternal excessive gestational weight gain and pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity. Lifestyle interventions that target diet, activity, and behavioral strategies can effectively modify adiposity. Randomized clinical trials testing the effects of lifestyle interventions during pregnancy to reduce excessive gestational weight gain have generally shown mixed effects on reducing GDM incidence. Trials testing the effects of postpartum lifestyle interventions among women with a history of GDM have shown reduced incidence of diabetes and improved cardiovascular disease risk factors. However, the long-term effects of inter-pregnancy or pre-pregnancy lifestyle interventions on subsequent GDM remain unknown. Future adequately powered and well-controlled clinical trials are needed to determine the effects of lifestyle interventions to prevent GDM and identify pathways to effectively reach reproductive-aged women across all levels of society, before, during, and after pregnancy. PMID:27487229

Ergonomic evaluation of a wheelchair transportation securement system.

PubMed

Ahmed, Madiha; Campbell-Kyureghyan, Naira; Frost, Karen; Bertocci, Gina

2012-01-01

The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) specifies guidelines covering the securement system and environment for wheeled mobility device (WhMD) passengers on the public bus system in the United States, referred to as the wheelchair tiedown and occupant restraint system (WTORS). The misuse or disuse of the WTORS system can be a source of injury for WhMD passengers riding the buses. The purpose of this study was to quantify the risks posed to the bus driver while performing the WTORS procedure using traditional ergonomic analysis methods. Four bus drivers completed the WTORS procedure for a representative passenger seated in three different WhMDs: manual wheelchair (MWC), scooter (SCTR), and power wheelchair (PWC). Potential work-related risks were identified using the four most applicable ergonomic assessment tools: PLIBEL, RULA, REBA, and iLMM. Task evaluation results revealed high levels of risk to be present to drivers during the WTORS procedure. The securement station space design and equipment layout were identified as contributing factors forcing drivers to adopt awkward postures while performing the WTORS task. These risk factors are known contributors to injury and the drivers could opt to improperly secure the passengers to avoid that risk.

Gender Moderates the Association of Depressive Symptoms to Sexual Risk Behavior Among HIV-Positive African-American Outpatients.

PubMed

Babowitch, Jacklyn D; Vanable, Peter A; Carey, Michael P

2018-05-01

Previous research has reported an association between depressive symptoms and sexual risk behavior. The purpose of this study was to explore whether gender moderates this association in a sample of HIV-positive African-Americans. Participants (N = 93) self-reported depressive symptoms (Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale; CES-D), and sexual risk behavior for the past 4 months. Analyses revealed that the depressive symptoms-by-gender interaction was associated with condomless sex and substance use proximal to sex. When analyses were stratified by gender, depressive symptoms were associated with condomless sex and frequency of substance use only for women. We conclude that depressive symptoms may be a more powerful sexual risk factor among women relative to men.

An average/deprivation/inequality (ADI) analysis of chronic disease outcomes and risk factors in Argentina

PubMed Central

De Maio, Fernando G; Linetzky, Bruno; Virgolini, Mario

2009-01-01

Background Recognition of the global economic and epidemiological burden of chronic non-communicable diseases has increased in recent years. However, much of the research on this issue remains focused on individual-level risk factors and neglects the underlying social patterning of risk factors and disease outcomes. Methods Secondary analysis of Argentina's 2005 Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo (National Risk Factor Survey, N = 41,392) using a novel analytical strategy first proposed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which we here refer to as the Average/Deprivation/Inequality (ADI) framework. The analysis focuses on two risk factors (unhealthy diet and obesity) and one related disease outcome (diabetes), a notable health concern in Latin America. Logistic regression is used to examine the interplay between socioeconomic and demographic factors. The ADI analysis then uses the results from the logistic regression to identify the most deprived, the best-off, and the difference between the two ideal types. Results Overall, 19.9% of the sample reported being in poor/fair health, 35.3% reported not eating any fruits or vegetables in five days of the week preceding the interview, 14.7% had a BMI of 30 or greater, and 8.5% indicated that a health professional had told them that they have diabetes or high blood pressure. However, significant variation is hidden by these summary measures. Educational attainment displayed the strongest explanatory power throughout the models, followed by household income, with both factors highlighting the social patterning of risk factors and disease outcomes. As educational attainment and household income increase, the probability of poor health, unhealthy diet, obesity, and diabetes decrease. The analyses also point toward important provincial effects and reinforce the notion that both compositional factors (i.e., characteristics of individuals) and contextual factors (i.e., characteristics of places) are important in understanding the social patterning of chronic diseases. Conclusion The application of the ADI framework enables identification of the regions or groups worst-off for each outcome measure under study. This can be used to highlight the variation embedded within national averages; as such, it encourages a social perspective on population health indicators that is particularly attuned to issues of inequity. The ADI framework is an important tool in the evaluation of policies aiming to prevent or control chronic non-communicable diseases. PMID:19505309

Severe Psychological Distress of Evacuees in Evacuation Zone Caused by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident: The Fukushima Health Management Survey.

PubMed

Kunii, Yasuto; Suzuki, Yuriko; Shiga, Tetsuya; Yabe, Hirooki; Yasumura, Seiji; Maeda, Masaharu; Niwa, Shin-Ichi; Otsuru, Akira; Mashiko, Hirobumi; Abe, Masafumi

2016-01-01

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has continued to affect the mental health status of residents in the evacuation zone. To examine the mental health status of evacuee after the nuclear accident, we conducted the Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey as part of the ongoing Fukushima Health Management Survey. We measured mental health status using the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale (K6) in a total of 73,569 (response rate: 40.7%) evacuees aged 15 and over who lived in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. We then dichotomized responders using a 12/13 cutoff on the K6, and compared the proportion of K6 scores ≥13 and ≤12 in each risk factor including demographic information, socioeconomic variables, and disaster-related variables. We also performed bivariate analyses between mental health status and possible risk factors using the chi-square test. Furthermore, we performed multivariate regression analysis using modified Poisson regression models. The median K6 score was 5 (interquartile range: 1-10). The number of psychological distress was 8,717 (14.6%). We found that significant differences in the prevalence of psychological distress by almost all survey items, including disaster-related risk factors, most of which were also associated with increased Prevalence ratios (PRs). Additionally, we found that psychological distress in each evacuation zone was significantly positively associated with the radiation levels in their environment (r = 0.768, p = 0.002). The earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear accident likely caused severe psychological distress among residents in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. The close association between psychological distress and the radiation levels shows that the nuclear accident seriously influenced the mental health of the residents, which might be exacerbated by increased risk perception. To provide prompt and appropriate support, continued psychosocial intervention for evacuees is strongly recommended.

A novel approach to simulate gene-environment interactions in complex diseases.

PubMed

Amato, Roberto; Pinelli, Michele; D'Andrea, Daniel; Miele, Gennaro; Nicodemi, Mario; Raiconi, Giancarlo; Cocozza, Sergio

2010-01-05

Complex diseases are multifactorial traits caused by both genetic and environmental factors. They represent the major part of human diseases and include those with largest prevalence and mortality (cancer, heart disease, obesity, etc.). Despite a large amount of information that has been collected about both genetic and environmental risk factors, there are few examples of studies on their interactions in epidemiological literature. One reason can be the incomplete knowledge of the power of statistical methods designed to search for risk factors and their interactions in these data sets. An improvement in this direction would lead to a better understanding and description of gene-environment interactions. To this aim, a possible strategy is to challenge the different statistical methods against data sets where the underlying phenomenon is completely known and fully controllable, for example simulated ones. We present a mathematical approach that models gene-environment interactions. By this method it is possible to generate simulated populations having gene-environment interactions of any form, involving any number of genetic and environmental factors and also allowing non-linear interactions as epistasis. In particular, we implemented a simple version of this model in a Gene-Environment iNteraction Simulator (GENS), a tool designed to simulate case-control data sets where a one gene-one environment interaction influences the disease risk. The main aim has been to allow the input of population characteristics by using standard epidemiological measures and to implement constraints to make the simulator behaviour biologically meaningful. By the multi-logistic model implemented in GENS it is possible to simulate case-control samples of complex disease where gene-environment interactions influence the disease risk. The user has full control of the main characteristics of the simulated population and a Monte Carlo process allows random variability. A knowledge-based approach reduces the complexity of the mathematical model by using reasonable biological constraints and makes the simulation more understandable in biological terms. Simulated data sets can be used for the assessment of novel statistical methods or for the evaluation of the statistical power when designing a study.

Prospective power calculations for the Four Lab study of a multigenerational reproductive/developmental toxicity rodent bioassay using a complex mixture of disinfection by-products in the low-response region.

PubMed

Dingus, Cheryl A; Teuschler, Linda K; Rice, Glenn E; Simmons, Jane Ellen; Narotsky, Michael G

2011-10-01

In complex mixture toxicology, there is growing emphasis on testing environmentally representative doses that improve the relevance of results for health risk assessment, but are typically much lower than those used in traditional toxicology studies. Traditional experimental designs with typical sample sizes may have insufficient statistical power to detect effects caused by environmentally relevant doses. Proper study design, with adequate statistical power, is critical to ensuring that experimental results are useful for environmental health risk assessment. Studies with environmentally realistic complex mixtures have practical constraints on sample concentration factor and sample volume as well as the number of animals that can be accommodated. This article describes methodology for calculation of statistical power for non-independent observations for a multigenerational rodent reproductive/developmental bioassay. The use of the methodology is illustrated using the U.S. EPA's Four Lab study in which rodents were exposed to chlorinated water concentrates containing complex mixtures of drinking water disinfection by-products. Possible experimental designs included two single-block designs and a two-block design. Considering the possible study designs and constraints, a design of two blocks of 100 females with a 40:60 ratio of control:treated animals and a significance level of 0.05 yielded maximum prospective power (~90%) to detect pup weight decreases, while providing the most power to detect increased prenatal loss.

Prospective Power Calculations for the Four Lab Study of A Multigenerational Reproductive/Developmental Toxicity Rodent Bioassay Using A Complex Mixture of Disinfection By-Products in the Low-Response Region

PubMed Central

Dingus, Cheryl A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Simmons, Jane Ellen; Narotsky, Michael G.

2011-01-01

In complex mixture toxicology, there is growing emphasis on testing environmentally representative doses that improve the relevance of results for health risk assessment, but are typically much lower than those used in traditional toxicology studies. Traditional experimental designs with typical sample sizes may have insufficient statistical power to detect effects caused by environmentally relevant doses. Proper study design, with adequate statistical power, is critical to ensuring that experimental results are useful for environmental health risk assessment. Studies with environmentally realistic complex mixtures have practical constraints on sample concentration factor and sample volume as well as the number of animals that can be accommodated. This article describes methodology for calculation of statistical power for non-independent observations for a multigenerational rodent reproductive/developmental bioassay. The use of the methodology is illustrated using the U.S. EPA’s Four Lab study in which rodents were exposed to chlorinated water concentrates containing complex mixtures of drinking water disinfection by-products. Possible experimental designs included two single-block designs and a two-block design. Considering the possible study designs and constraints, a design of two blocks of 100 females with a 40:60 ratio of control:treated animals and a significance level of 0.05 yielded maximum prospective power (~90%) to detect pup weight decreases, while providing the most power to detect increased prenatal loss. PMID:22073030

Fibroblast growth factor-23: what we know, what we don't know, and what we need to know.

PubMed

Kovesdy, Csaba P; Quarles, Leigh Darryl

2013-09-01

Traditional risk factors of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and obesity are paradoxically associated with better outcomes in dialysis patients, and the few trials of interventions targeting modifiable traditional risk factors have yielded disappointing results in this patient population. Non-traditional risk factors such as inflammation, anemia and abnormalities in bone and mineral metabolism have been proposed as potential explanations for the excess mortality seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but without clear understanding of what the most important pathophysiologic mechanisms of these risk factors are, which ones might be ideal treatment targets and which therapeutic interventions may be effective and safe in targeting them. Among the novel risk factors, fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) has recently emerged as one of the most powerful predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with CKD and ESRD. FGF23 is a hormone produced by osteoblasts/osteocytes in bone that acts on the kidney to regulate phosphate and vitamin D metabolism through activation of FGF receptor/α-Klotho co-receptor complexes. It is possible that elevated FGF23 may exert its negative impact through distinct mechanisms of action independent from its role as a regulator of phosphorus homeostasis. Elevated circulating FGF23 concentrations have been associated with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), and it has been suggested that FGF23 exerts a direct effect on the myocardium. While it is possible that 'off target' effects of FGF23 present in very high concentrations could induce LVH, this possibility is controversial, since α-klotho is not expressed in the myocardium. Another possibility is that FGF23's effect on the heart is mediated indirectly, via 'on target' activation of other humoral pathways. We will review the physiology and pathophysiology of FGF23, the outcomes associated with elevated FGF23 levels, and describe putative mechanisms of action responsible for its negative effects and potential therapeutic strategies to treat these.

African ancestry, early life exposures, and respiratory morbidity in early childhood.

PubMed

Kumar, R; Tsai, H-J; Hong, X; Gignoux, C; Pearson, C; Ortiz, K; Fu, M; Pongracic, J A; Burchard, E G; Bauchner, H; Wang, X

2012-02-01

Racial disparities persist in early childhood wheezing and cannot be completely explained by known risk factors. To evaluate the associations of genetic ancestry and self-identified race with early childhood recurrent wheezing, accounting for socio-economic status (SES) and early life exposures. We studied 1034 children in an urban, multi-racial, prospective birth cohort. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of genetic ancestry as opposed to self-identified race with recurrent wheezing (>3 episodes). Sequential models accounted for demographic, socio-economic factors and early life risk factors. Genetic ancestry, estimated using 150 ancestry informative markers, was expressed in deciles. Approximately 6.1% of subjects (mean age 3.1 years) experienced recurrent wheezing. After accounting for SES and demographic factors, African ancestry (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.31) was significantly associated with recurrent wheezing. By self-reported race, hispanic subjects had a borderline decrease in risk of wheeze compared with African Americans (OR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.19-1.00), whereas white subjects (OR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.14-1.57) did not have. After further adjustment for known confounders and early life exposures, both African (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05-1.34) and European ancestry (OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.74-0.94) retained a significant association with recurrent wheezing, as compared with self-identified race (OR(whites) : 0.31, 95% CI: 0.09-1.14; OR(hispanic) : 0.47, 95% CI: 0.20-1.08). There were no significant interactions between ancestry and early life factors on recurrent wheezing. In contrast to self-identified race, African ancestry remained a significant, independent predictor of early childhood wheezing after accounting for early life and other known risk factors associated with lung function changes and asthma. Genetic ancestry may be a powerful way to evaluate wheezing disparities and a proxy for differentially distributed genetic and early life risk factors associated with childhood recurrent wheezing. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Genetic architecture of white matter hyperintensities differs in hypertensive and nonhypertensive ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Adib-Samii, Poneh; Devan, William; Traylor, Matthew; Lanfranconi, Silvia; Zhang, Cathy R; Cloonan, Lisa; Falcone, Guido J; Radmanesh, Farid; Fitzpatrick, Kaitlin; Kanakis, Allison; Rothwell, Peter M; Sudlow, Cathie; Boncoraglio, Giorgio B; Meschia, James F; Levi, Chris; Dichgans, Martin; Bevan, Steve; Rosand, Jonathan; Rost, Natalia S; Markus, Hugh S

2015-02-01

Epidemiological studies suggest that white matter hyperintensities (WMH) are extremely heritable, but the underlying genetic variants are largely unknown. Pathophysiological heterogeneity is known to reduce the power of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Hypertensive and nonhypertensive individuals with WMH might have different underlying pathologies. We used GWAS data to calculate the variance in WMH volume (WMHV) explained by common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as a measure of heritability (SNP heritability [HSNP]) and tested the hypothesis that WMH heritability differs between hypertensive and nonhypertensive individuals. WMHV was measured on MRI in the stroke-free cerebral hemisphere of 2336 ischemic stroke cases with GWAS data. After adjustment for age and intracranial volume, we determined which cardiovascular risk factors were independent predictors of WMHV. Using the genome-wide complex trait analysis tool to estimate HSNP for WMHV overall and within subgroups stratified by risk factors found to be significant in multivariate analyses. A significant proportion of the variance of WMHV was attributable to common SNPs after adjustment for significant risk factors (HSNP=0.23; P=0.0026). HSNP estimates were higher among hypertensive individuals (HSNP=0.45; P=7.99×10(-5)); this increase was greater than expected by chance (P=0.012). In contrast, estimates were lower, and nonsignificant, in nonhypertensive individuals (HSNP=0.13; P=0.13). A quarter of variance is attributable to common SNPs, but this estimate was greater in hypertensive individuals. These findings suggest that the genetic architecture of WMH in ischemic stroke differs between hypertensives and nonhypertensives. Future WMHV GWAS studies may gain power by accounting for this interaction. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wolters Kluwer.

Vocal Problems in Sports and Fitness Instructors: A Study of Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Need for Prevention in France.

PubMed

Fontan, Lionel; Fraval, Marie; Michon, Anne; Déjean, Sébastien; Welby-Gieusse, Muriel

2017-03-01

Sports and fitness instructors (SFIs) are known for being a high-risk population for voice difficulties (VD). However, past studies have encountered various methodological difficulties in determining prevalence and risk factors for VD in SFIs, such as limited population, gender and selection biases, or poor statistical power, because VD were studied as a binary variable. The present research work addresses these issues and aims at studying the prevalence of vocal problems and risk factors in French SFIs, a population in which no such study was conducted yet. Another objective is to survey the French SFIs' habits and expectations regarding vocal prevention and care. This is a cross-sectional study. Three hundred and twenty SFIs answered a questionnaire, whether in an online (n = 267) or a paper (n = 53) version. The questionnaire consisted of 31 items addressing self-reported vocal difficulties, supposed risk factors, and personal health-care history, followed by the Voice Handicap Index assessment. Prevalence of self-reported vocal difficulties is 55%. The Voice Handicap Index is significantly associated with gender, age, and variables related to work environment (noise and music) and habits (shouting, frequency of classes), as well as with daily sleeping time. Results also indicate that a minority of the SFIs (37%) received information on vocal difficulties, whereas a majority (80%) declares being interested in participating in prevention programs. This work confirms that SFIs are a high-risk population for VD, underlines the need for specific information programs in France, and provides relevant data for driving such preventive actions. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How do women at risk of HIV/AIDS in Iran perceive gender norms and gendered power relations in the context of safe sex negotiations?

PubMed

Lotfi, Razieh; Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Merghati Khoei, Effat; Yaghmaei, Farideh; Dworkin, Shari L

2013-07-01

Sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS among women is growing in the Middle East region. Despite the fact that there are numerous gender-related sociocultural factors influencing HIV/AIDS protective behaviors, little gender-specificity is carried out in HIV prevention in Iran. In order to close this gap, we aimed to provide preliminary work that explored the perceptions that women at risk of HIV had about gender norms and gendered power and their ability to protect themselves against HIV/AIDS. Twenty-five semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with women at risk of HIV/AIDS, aged 21-49 years, at Voluntary Counseling and Testing Centers or Drop in Centers in Tehran, Iran. Results showed that perceived gender norms were essential barriers of protective behavior through sexual socialization, male control over condom use and sexual decision-making, male pleasure predominating in sexual encounters and sexual double standards, and economic dependencies. In the conclusions, we consider how HIV/AIDS preventive programs can be structured to be gender-sensitive and empowering in Iran.

[Psychoemotional stress and somatic diseases in veterans of special risk units].

PubMed

Alishev, N V; Tsygan, V N; Drabkin, B A; Apchel, V Ia; Nikolaeva, N A; Tarumov, A V; Fesiun, A D; Fedoseev, V M

2008-01-01

Participants of nuclear-powered submarine accident liquidation and special risk units' veterans participating in surface nuclear weapon tests as well as in liquidation of their consequences have been examined. It has been established that functional state of this category of people is difficult to interpret only in the context of radioactive irradiation effect or injuring stress factor exposure. This state is determined by a complex of psychotraumatic factors tending to become aggravated and characterizing by their individual significance and absolute or relative insolvability. In most representatives of this category the disease is manifested by psychopathologic syndrome of neurotic disorders (low spirits, emotional lability, asthenia, anxiety) and somatic disturbances as dysfunction of the cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive and other systems. The results obtained provide the pathogenetic substantiation of efficient ways and methods for rehabilitation of the special risk units' veterans. The data prove the necessity of appropriate correction of cardiovascular disorders in practically healthy servicemen residing under conditions of psychoemotional tension.

Prenatal programming-effects on blood pressure and renal function.

PubMed

Ritz, Eberhard; Amann, Kerstin; Koleganova, Nadezda; Benz, Kerstin

2011-03-01

Impaired intrauterine nephrogenesis-most clearly illustrated by low nephron number-is frequently associated with low birthweight and has been recognized as a powerful risk factor for renal disease; it increases the risks of low glomerular filtration rate, of more rapid progression of primary kidney disease, and of increased incidence of chronic kidney disease or end-stage renal disease. Another important consequence of impaired nephrogenesis is hypertension, which further amplifies the risk of onset and progression of kidney disease. Hypertension is associated with low nephron numbers in white individuals, but the association is not universal and is not seen in individuals of African origin. The derangement of intrauterine kidney development is an example of a more general principle that illustrates the paradigm of plasticity during development-that is, that transcription of the genetic code is modified by epigenetic factors (as has increasingly been documented). This Review outlines the concept of prenatal programming and, in particular, describes its role in kidney disease and hypertension.

Perception of risk and subjective health among victims of the Chernobyl disaster.

PubMed

Havenaar, J M; de Wilde, E J; van den Bout, J; Drottz-Sjöberg, B M; van den Brink, W

2003-02-01

Several studies have demonstrated that the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl in 1986 had a strong impact on the subjective health of the inhabitants in the surrounding regions and that the majority of these health complaints appear to be stress-related. An epidemiological survey among the adult population of the Gomel region in Belarus near Chernobyl showed higher rates of self-reported health problems, psychological distress and medical service use in this region than in a comparable unexposed region. This paper presents an analysis of data on cognitive factors that were collected in this study. The findings support the hypothesis that cognitive variables such as risk perception and sense of control play an important role as mediating factors in the explanation of the observed health differences between the exposed and non-exposed regions. A tentative model is presented to further clarify the role of risk perception in the occurrence of non-specific health complaints after such ecological disasters.

Longitudinal pathways linking family factors and sibling relationship qualities to adolescent substance use and sexual risk behaviors.

PubMed

East, Patricia L; Khoo, Siek Toon

2005-12-01

This 3-wave, 5-year longitudinal study tested the contributions of family contextual factors and sibling relationship qualities to younger siblings' substance use, sexual risk behaviors, pregnancy, and sexually transmitted disease. More than 220 non-White families participated (67% Latino and 33% African American), all of which involved a younger sibling (133 girls and 89 boys; mean age = 13.6 years at Time 1) and an older sister (mean age = 17 years at Time 1). Results from structural equation latent growth curve modeling indicated that qualities of the sibling relationship (high older sister power, low warmth/closeness, and low conflict) mediated effects from several family risks (mothers' single parenting, older sisters' teen parenting, and family's receipt of aid) to younger sibling outcomes. Model results were generally stronger for sister-sister pairs than for sister-brother pairs. Findings add to theoretical models that emphasize the role of family and parenting processes in shaping sibling relationships, which, in turn, influence adolescent outcomes. Copyright 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Association between muscle power impairment and WHODAS 2.0 in older adults with physical disability in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Kwang-Hwa; Liao, Hua-Fang; Yen, Chia-Fan; Hwang, Ai-Wen; Chi, Wen-Chou; Escorpizo, Reuben; Liou, Tsan-Hon

2015-01-01

To explore the association between muscle power impairment and each World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule second edition (WHODAS 2.0) domain score among subjects with physical disability. Subjects (≥ 60 years) with physical disability related to neurological diseases, including 730 subjects with brain disease (BD) and 126 subjects with non-BD, were enrolled from a data bank of persons with disabilities from 1 July 2011 to 29 February 2012. Standardized WHODAS 2.0 scores ranging from 0 (least difficulty) to 100 (greatest difficulty) points were calculated for each domain. More than 50% of subjects with physical disability had the greatest difficulty in household activities and mobility. Muscle power impairment (adjusted odds ratios range among domains, 2.75-376.42, p < 0.001), age (1.38-4.81, p < 0.05), and speech impairment (1.94-5.80, p < 0.05) were associated with BD subjects experiencing the greatest difficulty in most WHODAS 2.0 domains. But a few associated factors were identified for the non-BD group in the study. Although the patterns of difficulty in most daily activities were similar between the BD and non-BD groups, factors associated with the difficulties differed between those two groups. Muscle power impairment, age and speech impairment were important factors associated with difficulties in subjects with BD-related physical disability. Older adults with physical disability often experience difficulties in household activities and mobility. Muscle power impairment is associated with difficulties in daily life in subjects with physical disability related to brain disease. Those subjects with brain disease who had older age, a greater degree of muscle power impairment, and the presence of speech impairment were at higher risk of experiencing difficulties in most daily activities.

Mostly Heterosexual and Lesbian/Gay Young Adults: Differences in Mental Health and Substance Use and the Role of Minority Stress.

PubMed

Kuyper, Lisette; Bos, Henny

2016-09-01

Individuals mostly attracted to other-sex but also to same-sex partners are a distinct and common sexual orientation group with possibly increased levels of health problems. The current study examined whether mostly heterosexual individuals differed in mental health and substance use from lesbian/gay individuals and whether sexual minority risk and protective factors offer an explanation in a sample of 528 Dutch young adults (16 to 25 years old, M = 21.2 years). Mostly heterosexual participants reported higher levels of psychological distress, suicidality, drug use, and smoking than lesbian/gay participants and equal levels of binge drinking. They also reported higher levels of internalized negativity to same-sex attractions, less openness to family members and others, less community involvement, and lower numbers of lesbian/gay/bisexual friends. However, bootstrapped mediation analysis showed that the differences in minority stress risk and protective factors did not mediate most of the differences in mental health and substance use with one exception: higher levels of psychological distress were mediated by the higher levels of internalized negativity to same-sex attractions. The limited explanatory power of the minority stress factors combined with the elevated level of problems of mostly heterosexual individuals call for future studies examining other risk and protective factors.

Culture appropriate indicators for monitoring growth and development of urban and rural children below 6 years.

PubMed

Dixit, A; Govil, S; Patel, N V

1992-03-01

In this cross sectional study, 2000 apparently normal children aged 0-6 years (1200 urban and 800 rural), were nutritionally and developmentally assessed and their environment scrutinized for possible risk factors. Measurement of mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) using standard techniques revealed malnutrition in 44% of the rural and 24% of the urban children especially in the 2-6 years of age group. Culture appropriate indicators of psycho-social development picked up gross delays in gross motor (GM), vision and fine motor (V&FM) and language skills. Self help, concept hearing (SHCH) skills were recorded as normal while social skills were advanced particularly in the 0-2 years old urban group. By the use of the family protocols, low socio-economic status, malnutrition and 9 other risks factors have been generated for the urban group. No risk factor could be identified for the rural group. Better income emerged as the only real protective factor for the sample showing a direct positive relationship with the 45 skills tested, especially in the 2-6 years age group. Nineteen developmental skills were identified as powerful predictors of development. A prototype home based screening record was constructed for monitoring of growth and development which can be even used by minimally trained primary care worker.

Modeling Power Plant Cooling Water Requirements: A Regional Analysis of the Energy-Water Nexus Considering Renewable Sources within the Power Generation Mix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, Jaron Joshua

Water is used in power generation for cooling processes in thermoelectric power. plants and currently withdraws more water than any other sector in the U.S. Reducing water. use from power generation will help to alleviate water stress in at risk areas, where droughts. have the potential to strain water resources. The amount of water used for power varies. depending on many climatic aspects as well as plant operation factors. This work presents. a model that quantifies the water use for power generation for two regions representing. different generation fuel portfolios, California and Utah. The analysis of the California Independent System Operator introduces the methods. of water energy modeling by creating an overall water use factor in volume of water per. unit of energy produced based on the fuel generation mix of the area. The idea of water. monitoring based on energy used by a building or region is explored based on live fuel mix. data. This is for the purposes of increasing public awareness of the water associated with. personal energy use and helping to promote greater energy efficiency. The Utah case study explores the effects more renewable, and less water-intensive, forms of energy will have on the overall water use from power generation for the state. Using a similar model to that of the California case study, total water savings are quantified. based on power reduction scenarios involving increased use of renewable energy. The. plausibility of implementing more renewable energy into Utah’s power grid is also. discussed. Data resolution, as well as dispatch methods, economics, and solar variability, introduces some uncertainty into the analysis.

Predictors of Recurrent Hospital Admission for Patients Presenting With Diabetic Ketoacidosis and Hyperglycemic Hyperosmolar State.

PubMed

Bradford, Annabel L; Crider, Courtney Champagne; Xu, Xizheng; Naqvi, Syed Hasan

2017-01-01

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state (HHS) are two serious, preventable complications of diabetes mellitus. Analysis of variables associated with recurrent DKA and HHS admission has the potential to improve patient outcomes by identifying possible areas for intervention. The aim of this study was to evaluate potential predictors of recurrent DKA or HHS admission. This was a retrospective case-control study of 367 patients presenting during a 5-year period with DKA or HHS at a US tertiary academic medical center. Six potential readmission risk factors identified via literature review were coded as "1" if present and "0" if absent. Readmission odds ratios (ORs) for each risk factor and for the combined score of significant risk factors were calculated by logistic regression. Readmission odds were significantly increased for patients with age < 35, history of depression or substance/alcohol abuse, and self-pay/publicly funded insurance. HbA1C > 10.6% on admission and ethnic minority status did not significantly increase readmission odds, with inadequate study power for these variables. A total "ABCD" score, based on Age (< 35 years), Behavioral health (depression), insurance Coverage (self-pay/publicly funded insurance), and Drug/alcohol abuse, also had a significant effect on readmission odds. Consideration of individual risk factors and the use of a scoring system based on objective predictors of recurrent DKA and HHS admission could be of value in helping identify patients with high readmission risk, allowing interventions to be targeted most effectively to reduce readmission rates, associated morbidity, and mortality.

Dynapenia and Aging: An Update

PubMed Central

Clark, Brian C.

2012-01-01

In 2008, we published an article arguing that the age-related loss of muscle strength is only partially explained by the reduction in muscle mass and that other physiologic factors explain muscle weakness in older adults (Clark BC, Manini TM. Sarcopenia =/= dynapenia. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2008;63:829–834). Accordingly, we proposed that these events (strength and mass loss) be defined independently, leaving the term “sarcopenia” to be used in its original context to describe the age-related loss of muscle mass. We subsequently coined the term “dynapenia” to describe the age-related loss of muscle strength and power. This article will give an update on both the biological and clinical literature on dynapenia—serving to best synthesize this translational topic. Additionally, we propose a working decision algorithm for defining dynapenia. This algorithm is specific to screening for and defining dynapenia using age, presence or absence of risk factors, a grip strength screening, and if warranted a test for knee extension strength. A definition for a single risk factor such as dynapenia will provide information in building a risk profile for the complex etiology of physical disability. As such, this approach mimics the development of risk profiles for cardiovascular disease that include such factors as hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, hyperglycemia, etc. Because of a lack of data, the working decision algorithm remains to be fully developed and evaluated. However, these efforts are expected to provide a specific understanding of the role that dynapenia plays in the loss of physical function and increased risk for disability among older adults. PMID:21444359

Child and adolescent risk factors that differentially predict violent versus nonviolent crime.

PubMed

Kalvin, Carla B; Bierman, Karen L

2017-11-01

While most research on the development of antisocial and criminal behavior has considered nonviolent and violent crime together, some evidence points to differential risk factors for these separate types of crime. The present study explored differential risk for nonviolent and violent crime by investigating the longitudinal associations between three key child risk factors (aggression, emotion dysregulation, and social isolation) and two key adolescent risk factors (parent detachment and deviant peer affiliation) predicting violent and nonviolent crime outcomes in early adulthood. Data on 754 participants (46% African American, 50% European American, 4% other; 58% male) oversampled for aggressive-disruptive behavior were collected across three time points. Parents and teachers rated aggression, emotion dysregulation, and social isolation in fifth grade (middle childhood, age 10-11); parents and youth rated parent detachment and deviant peer affiliation in seventh and eighth grade (early adolescence, age 12-14) and arrest data were collected when participants were 22-23 years old (early adulthood). Different pathways to violent and nonviolent crime emerged. The severity of child dysfunction in late childhood, including aggression, emotion dysregulation, and social isolation, was a powerful and direct predictor of violent crime. Although child dysfunction also predicted nonviolent crime, the direct pathway accounted for half as much variance as the direct pathway to violent crime. Significant indirect pathways through adolescent socialization experiences (peer deviancy) emerged for nonviolent crime, but not for violent crime, suggesting adolescent socialization plays a more distinctive role in predicting nonviolent than violent crime. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Health-risk factors and the prevalence of hypertension: cross-sectional findings from a national cohort of 87,143 Thai Open University students.

PubMed

Thawornchaisit, Prasutr; de Looze, Ferdinandus; Reid, Christopher M; Seubsman, Sam-Ang; Sleigh, Adrian

2013-05-01

Thailand is undergoing a health-risk transition which increases chronic diseases, particularly hypertension, as a result of a rapid transition from a developing to a developed country. This study analyzes the effect of health-risk factors such as demography, socioeconomic status (SES) and body mass index (BMI) on the prevalence of hypertension. This was a cross-sectional analysis using data obtained in 2005 from 87,143 Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University (STOU) students participating in the Thai Cohort Study (mean age 30.5 years, 54.7% female). Adjusted odds ratios of the association between risk factors and hypertension were analysed across two age groups by sex, after controlling for the confounding factors such as SES and BMI. The prevalence of hypertension in men was approximately twice as high as that in women (6.9% vs 2.6%). Hypertension was associated with ageing, a lower education attainment, a higher BMI and having underlying diseases in both sexes. In men, hypertension was associated with being single, having a high income, spending more time on screens (TV & PC), cigarette smoking and drinking alcohol. In women, it was directly correlated with instant and roasted or smoked food consumption. Hypertension was highly associated with obesity and having underlying disease. The Thai health-risk transition is in a later stage. Thais should now be educated about the danger of high blood pressure and the protective power of a low fat and low salt diet, and a normal BMI. Cessation of smoking and moderation in alcohol intake should be promoted.

Expiratory Flow Limitation as a Risk Factor for Pulmonary Complications After Major Abdominal Surgery.

PubMed

Spadaro, Savino; Caramori, Gaetano; Rizzuto, Chiara; Mojoli, Francesco; Zani, Gianluca; Ragazzi, Riccardo; Valpiani, Giorgia; Dalla Corte, Francesca; Marangoni, Elisabetta; Volta, Carlo Alberto

2017-02-01

Postoperative pulmonary complications are major causes of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Although several risk factors have been associated with postoperative pulmonary complications, they are not consistent between studies and, even in those studies in which these factors were identified, the predictive power is low. We hypothesized that postoperative pulmonary complications would correlate with the presence of intraoperative expiratory flow limitation. Candidates for this prospective observational study were patients undergoing general anesthesia for major abdominal surgery. Preoperative data collection included age, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, smoking and dyspnea history, and room air PO2. Expiratory flow limitation was assessed intraoperatively using the positive end-expiratory pressure test. Postoperative data collection included the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. Of the 330 patients we enrolled, 31% exhibited expiratory flow limitation. On univariate analysis, patients with expiratory flow limitation were more likely to have postoperative pneumonia (5% vs 0%, P < .001) and acute respiratory failure (11% vs 1%, P < .001) and a longer length of hospital stay (7 vs 9 days, P < .01). Multivariate analysis identified that expiratory flow limitation increased the risk of developing postoperative pulmonary complications by >50% (risk ratio, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-4.2). Age and Medical Research Council dyspnea score were also significant multivariate risk factors for pulmonary complications. Our results show that intraoperative expiratory flow limitation correlates with that of postoperative pulmonary complication after major abdominal surgery. Further work is needed to better understand the relevance of expiratory flow limitation on postoperative pulmonary outcomes.

Dynapenia and aging: an update.

PubMed

Manini, Todd M; Clark, Brian C

2012-01-01

In 2008, we published an article arguing that the age-related loss of muscle strength is only partially explained by the reduction in muscle mass and that other physiologic factors explain muscle weakness in older adults (Clark BC, Manini TM. Sarcopenia =/= dynapenia. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2008;63:829-834). Accordingly, we proposed that these events (strength and mass loss) be defined independently, leaving the term "sarcopenia" to be used in its original context to describe the age-related loss of muscle mass. We subsequently coined the term "dynapenia" to describe the age-related loss of muscle strength and power. This article will give an update on both the biological and clinical literature on dynapenia-serving to best synthesize this translational topic. Additionally, we propose a working decision algorithm for defining dynapenia. This algorithm is specific to screening for and defining dynapenia using age, presence or absence of risk factors, a grip strength screening, and if warranted a test for knee extension strength. A definition for a single risk factor such as dynapenia will provide information in building a risk profile for the complex etiology of physical disability. As such, this approach mimics the development of risk profiles for cardiovascular disease that include such factors as hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, hyperglycemia, etc. Because of a lack of data, the working decision algorithm remains to be fully developed and evaluated. However, these efforts are expected to provide a specific understanding of the role that dynapenia plays in the loss of physical function and increased risk for disability among older adults.

Hospitalizations for Accidents and Induries in the U.S. Navy. IV. A Comparison of Nuclear and Conventionally Powered Surface Ships.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-04-01

SURFACE SHIPS C. M. BONE J . C. HELMKAMP DTIC REPORT NO. 86-8 IWELECTE "’AUG 2 71986 ~. DistributLlU hti~ NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER Q... P.O. BOX 85122...carrier and cruiser personnel comparisons. This risk was 1.5 and 2. J times the risk of hospitalization, respectively, for the same aged personnel...in these two groups, some confounding bias may have occurred. 10 Pr,, ’e ’, j .*-~~’V**, *~*~**** ,’*. ’~ Another confounding factor may stem from duty

Who Is at Risk for Diagnostic Discrepancies? Comparison of Pre- and Postmortal Diagnoses in 1800 Patients of 3 Medical Decades in East and West Berlin

PubMed Central

Wittschieber, Daniel; Klauschen, Frederick; Kimmritz, Anna-Christin; von Winterfeld, Moritz; Kamphues, Carsten; Scholman, Hans-Joachim; Erbersdobler, Andreas; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Denkert, Carsten; Dietel, Manfred; Weichert, Wilko

2012-01-01

Background Autopsy rates in Western countries consistently decline to an average of <5%, although clinical autopsies represent a reasonable tool for quality control in hospitals, medically and economically. Comparing pre- and postmortal diagnoses, diagnostic discrepancies as uncovered by clinical autopsies supply crucial information on how to improve clinical treatment. The study aimed at analyzing current diagnostic discrepancy rates, investigating their influencing factors and identifying risk profiles of patients that could be affected by a diagnostic discrepancy. Methods and Findings Of all adult autopsy cases of the Charité Institute of Pathology from the years 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, the pre- and postmortal diagnoses and all demographic data were analyzed retrospectively. Based on power analysis, 1,800 cases were randomly selected to perform discrepancy classification (class I-VI) according to modified Goldman criteria. The rate of discrepancies in major diagnoses (class I) was 10.7% (95% CI: 7.7%–14.7%) in 2008 representing a reduction by 15.1%. Subgroup analysis revealed several influencing factors to significantly correlate with the discrepancy rate. Cardiovascular diseases had the highest frequency among class-I-discrepancies. Comparing the 1988-data of East- and West-Berlin, no significant differences were found in diagnostic discrepancies despite an autopsy rate differing by nearly 50%. A risk profile analysis visualized by intuitive heatmaps revealed a significantly high discrepancy rate in patients treated in low or intermediate care units at community hospitals. In this collective, patients with genitourinary/renal or infectious diseases were at particularly high risk. Conclusions This is the current largest and most comprehensive study on diagnostic discrepancies worldwide. Our well-powered analysis revealed a significant rate of class-I-discrepancies indicating that autopsies are still of value. The identified risk profiles may aid both pathologists and clinicians to identify patients at increased risk for a discrepant diagnosis and possibly suboptimal treatment intra vitam. PMID:22629399

Using public control genotype data to increase power and decrease cost of case-control genetic association studies.

PubMed

Ho, Lindsey A; Lange, Ethan M

2010-12-01

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies are a powerful approach for identifying novel genetic risk factors associated with human disease. A GWA study typically requires the inclusion of thousands of samples to have sufficient statistical power to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms that are associated with only modest increases in risk of disease given the heavy burden of a multiple test correction that is necessary to maintain valid statistical tests. Low statistical power and the high financial cost of performing a GWA study remains prohibitive for many scientific investigators anxious to perform such a study using their own samples. A number of remedies have been suggested to increase statistical power and decrease cost, including the utilization of free publicly available genotype data and multi-stage genotyping designs. Herein, we compare the statistical power and relative costs of alternative association study designs that use cases and screened controls to study designs that are based only on, or additionally include, free public control genotype data. We describe a novel replication-based two-stage study design, which uses free public control genotype data in the first stage and follow-up genotype data on case-matched controls in the second stage that preserves many of the advantages inherent when using only an epidemiologically matched set of controls. Specifically, we show that our proposed two-stage design can substantially increase statistical power and decrease cost of performing a GWA study while controlling the type-I error rate that can be inflated when using public controls due to differences in ancestry and batch genotype effects.

Health-Related Lifestyle Factors and Sexual Dysfunction: A Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Research.

PubMed

Allen, Mark S; Walter, Emma E

2018-04-01

Sexual dysfunction is a common problem among men and women and is associated with negative individual functioning, relationship difficulties, and lower quality of life. To determine the magnitude of associations between 6 health-related lifestyle factors (cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, diet, caffeine, and cannabis use) and 3 common sexual dysfunctions (erectile dysfunction, premature ejaculation, and female sexual dysfunction). A comprehensive literature search of 10 electronic databases identified 89 studies that met the inclusion criteria (452 effect sizes; N = 348,865). Pooled mean effects (for univariate, age-adjusted, and multivariable-adjusted estimates) were computed using inverse-variance weighted random-effects meta-analysis and moderation by study and population characteristics were tested using random-effects meta-regression. Mean effect sizes from 92 separate meta-analyses provided evidence that health-related lifestyle factors are important for sexual dysfunction. Cigarette smoking (past and current), alcohol intake, and physical activity had dose-dependent associations with erectile dysfunction. Risk of erectile dysfunction increased with greater cigarette smoking and decreased with greater physical activity. Alcohol had a curvilinear association such that moderate intake was associated with a lower risk of erectile dysfunction. Participation in physical activity was associated with a lower risk of female sexual dysfunction. There was some evidence that a healthy diet was related to a lower risk of erectile dysfunction and female sexual dysfunction, and caffeine intake was unrelated to erectile dysfunction. Publication bias appeared minimal and findings were similar for clinical and non-clinical samples. Modification of lifestyle factors would appear to be a useful low-risk approach to decreasing the risk of erectile dysfunction and female sexual dysfunction. Strengths include the testing of age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted models and tests of potential moderators using meta-regression. Limitations include low statistical power in models testing diet, caffeine, and cannabis use as risk factors. Results provide compelling evidence that cigarette smoking, alcohol, and physical activity are important for sexual dysfunction. Insufficient research was available to draw conclusions regarding risk factors for premature ejaculation or for cannabis use as a risk factor. These findings should be of interest to clinicians treating men and women with complaints relating to symptoms of sexual dysfunction. Allen MS, Walter EE. Health-Related Lifestyle Factors and Sexual Dysfunction: A Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Research. J Sex Med 2018;15:458-475. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Norms and practices within marriage which shape gender roles, HIV/AIDS risk and risk reduction strategies in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique.

PubMed

Bandali, S

2011-09-01

Despite increasing HIV/AIDS rates among married individuals, minimal research has been conducted on how men and women respond to risk in a marriage. This paper examines strategies used by married individuals to combat HIV/AIDS risk against prevailing gender norms. Qualitative data were gathered in four villages of Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique. Group discussions were held with 160 men and women to explore gender norms, HIV/AIDS knowledge and risk determinants. From the group discussions, 29 individuals were selected for further in-depth interviews to explore relationships between gender norms and risk reduction efforts within marriages. Findings illustrate how infidelity and social limitations placed on condom use not only increase HIV/AIDS risk but also entrench gender disparities. Although power differences between genders can make it difficult to negotiate safe sex, men and women are taking measures to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk in their marriage. Married men are reconstructing norms and taking responsibility to protect their family from HIV/AIDS by remaining faithful. For women, responses to HIV/AIDS risk in a marriage are more closely related to their ability to generate an income. Financially dependent women tend to leave a risky marriage altogether in contrast to financially autonomous women who will negotiate condom use with their husband. Factors such as experience with a risky partner, the desire to maintain a good social standing, fear of HIV/AIDS acquisition and parental guidance and support influence men and women to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk, despite constraining gender norms and power imbalances in a marriage. Nuanced understandings of the ways in which men and women are already taking measures to decrease noted HIV/AIDS risk, despite gender norms that make this a challenge, should be incorporated into localised responses.

Association of gender norms, relationship and intrapersonal variables, and acculturation with sexual communication among young adult Latinos.

PubMed

Alvarez, Carmen; Villarruel, Antonia

2015-04-01

Sexual communication is an important strategy in promoting safer sex behavior, but few investigators have explored sexual communication among young adult Latinos. In this cross-sectional study, we examined the role of traditional gender norms, relationship factors (relationship characteristics and relationship power), intrapersonal factors (attitudes and subjective norms), and acculturation as statistical predictors of three different types of sexual communication (sexual health, pleasure discussions, and physical sexual communication) in Latino women and men. The sample was 220 Latinos (111 women and 109 men) ages 18-30 years who were sexually active in heterosexual relationships. In multiple regression, after controlling for relationship power, intrapersonal factors, and acculturation, traditional gender norms did not predict sexual communication for either women or men. For both women and men, pleasure-focused communication (pleasure discussions and physical sexual communication) increased with acculturation. For women, the strongest predictor of all types of sexual communication was their attitudes toward sexual communication. Greater relationship power and lower acculturation were associated with women's sexual health communication. For men, no variables explained sexual health communication or physical sexual communication, and acculturation and attitude toward pleasure discussions predicted pleasure communication. Women who believed they had power in their relationships and had positive attitudes toward pleasure discussions and a high level of acculturation reported more physical sexual communication. Findings suggest the importance of relationship power, attitudes, and acculturation in young adult Latinos' sexual communication. Sexual risk prevention strategies among young adult Latinos should include encouraging sexual communication by supporting positive attitudes toward pleasure-focused communication. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Relative associations of cattle movements, local spread, and biosecurity with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) seropositivity in beef and dairy herds.

PubMed

Gates, M C; Woolhouse, M E J; Gunn, G J; Humphry, R W

2013-11-01

The success of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication campaigns can be undermined by spread through local transmission pathways and poor farmer compliance with biosecurity recommendations. This work combines recent survey data with cattle movement data to explore the issues likely to impact on the success of BVDV control in Scotland. In this analysis, data from 249 beef suckler herds and 185 dairy herds in Scotland were studied retrospectively to determine the relative influence of cattle movements, local spread, and biosecurity on BVDV seropositivity. Multivariable logistic regression models revealed that cattle movement risk factors had approximately 3 times greater explanatory power than risk factors for local spread amongst beef suckler herds, but approximately the same explanatory power as risk factors for local spread amongst dairy herds. These findings are most likely related to differences in cattle husbandry practices and suggest that where financial prioritization is required, focusing on reducing movement-based risk is likely to be of greatest benefit when applied to beef suckler herds. The reported use of biosecurity measures such as purchasing cattle from BVDV accredited herds only, performing diagnostic screening at the time of sale, implementing isolation periods for purchased cattle, and installing double fencing on shared field boundaries had minimal impact on the risk of beef or dairy herds being seropositive for BVDV. Only 28% of beef farmers and 24% of dairy farmers with seropositive herds recognized that their cattle were affected by BVDV and those that did perceive a problem were no less likely to sell animals as replacement breeding stock and no more likely to implement biosecurity measures against local spread than farmers with no perceived problems. In relation to the current legislative framework for BVDV control in Scotland, these findings emphasize the importance of requiring infected herds take appropriate biosecurity measures to prevent further disease transmission and conducting adequate follow-up to ensure that biosecurity measures are being implemented correctly in the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of intratumoral neutrophils in advanced gastric carcinoma in a high-risk area in northern Italy.

PubMed

Caruso, Rosario Alberto; Bellocco, Rino; Pagano, Marcello; Bertoli, Giovanni; Rigoli, Luciana; Inferrera, Cosimo

2002-08-01

Several lines of evidence indicate that neutrophils act nonspecifically against tumor cells. The correlation between tumor-infiltrating neutrophils (TINs) and clinicopathological features remains unclear and deserves to be investigated. To analyze the prognostic influence of TINs in gastric carcinoma, the authors selected 273 patients with advanced gastric carcinoma who underwent gastrectomy at Cremona Hospital (Lombardia, Italy) between 1990 and 1995 and followed them for a period of 5 years. The number of TINs was assessed in a semiquantitative manner using the mean value of 20 nonoverlapping high-power fields (magnification, 400x; 0.08 mm(2)). The patients were divided into two groups: patients with a moderate or extensive amount of TINs (n = 76; >10 TINs per 20 high-power fields) and patients with a minor amount of TINs (n = 197;

Evaluation of the Aristotle complexity models in adult patients with congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Hörer, Jürgen; Vogt, Manfred; Wottke, Michael; Cleuziou, Julie; Kasnar-Samprec, Jelena; Lange, Rüdiger; Schreiber, Christian

2013-01-01

The adult congenital heart disease (CHD) population has surpassed the paediatric CHD population. Half of all mortality caused by CHD occurs in adulthood; in some patients, it occurs during surgery. We sought to assess the potential risk factors for adverse outcome after cardiac operations in adults with CHD, and to evaluate the predictive power of the Aristotle score models for hospital mortality. Procedure-dependent and independent factors, as well as the outcome factors of all consecutive patients aged 16 or more who underwent surgery for CHD between 2005 and 2008 at our institution were evaluated according to the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery Congenital Database nomenclature. An Aristotle basic complexity (ABC) and an Aristotle comprehensive complexity (ACC) score were assigned to each operation. The discriminatory power of the scores was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AuROC) curve. During 542 operations, 773 procedures were performed. The early mortality rate was 2.4%, and the early complication rate was 53.7%. Tricuspid valve replacement (P = 0.009), mitral valve replacement (P < 0.001), elevated lung resistances (P = 0.002), hypothyroidism (P = 0.002) and redosternotomy (P = 0.003) emerged as risk factors for 30-day mortality. Tricuspid valve replacement (P < 0.001), tricuspid valvuloplasty (P = 0.006), mitral valve replacement (P = 0.003), shunt implantation (P = 0.009), surgical ablation (P = 0.024), myocardial dysfunction (P = 0.014), elevated lung resistances (P = 0.004), hypothyroidism (P = 0.002) and redosternotomy (P < 0.001) emerged as risk factors for complications. Mean ABC and ACC scores were 6.6 ± 2.3, and 9.0 ± 3.7, respectively. The AuROCs of the ABC and the ACC scores for 30-day mortality were 0.663 (P = 0.044), and 0.755 (P = 0.002), respectively. The AuROCs of the ABC and the ACC scores for complications were 0.634 (P < 0.001), and 0.670 (P < 0.001), respectively. Surgery for adults with CHD can be performed with low early mortality. However, complications are frequent, especially in patients who require repeat operations for atrioventricular valve incompetence. The ACC score may be helpful to estimate the risk of early mortality.

[Risk communication in construction of new nuclear power plant].

PubMed

He, Gui-Zhen; Lü, Yong-Long

2013-03-01

Accompanied by construction of new nuclear power plants in the coming decades in China, risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Nuclear risk communication is a critical component in helping individuals prepare for, respond to, and recover from nuclear power emergencies. It was discussed that awareness of trust and public attitudes are important determinants in nuclear power risk communication and management. However, there is limited knowledge about how to best communicate with at-risk populations around nuclear power plant in China. To bridge this gap, this study presented the attitudinal data from a field survey in under-building Haiyang nuclear power plant, Shandong Province to measure public support for and opposition to the local construction of nuclear power plant. The paper discussed the structure of the communication process from a descriptive point of view, recognizing the importance of trust and understanding the information openness. The results showed that decision-making on nuclear power was dominated by a closed "iron nuclear triangle" of national governmental agencies, state-owned nuclear enterprises and scientific experts. Public participation and public access to information on nuclear constructions and assessments have been marginal and media was a key information source. As information on nuclear power and related risks is very restricted in China, Chinese citizens (51%) tend to choose the government as the most trustworthy source. More respondents took the negative attitudes toward nuclear power plant construction around home. It drew on studies about risk communication to develop some guidelines for successful risk communication. The conclusions have vast implications for how we approach risk management in the future. The findings should be of interest to state and local emergency managers, community-based organizations, public health researchers, and policy makers.

Spousal Violence in 5 Transitional Countries: A Population-Based Multilevel Analysis of Individual and Contextual Factors

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Objectives. I examined the individual- and community-level factors associated with spousal violence in post-Soviet countries. Methods. I used population-based data from the Demographic and Health Survey conducted between 2005 and 2012. My sample included currently married women of reproductive age (n = 3932 in Azerbaijan, n = 4053 in Moldova, n = 1932 in Ukraine, n = 4361 in Kyrgyzstan, and n = 4093 in Tajikistan). I selected respondents using stratified multistage cluster sampling. Because of the nested structure of the data, multilevel logistic regressions for survey data were fitted to examine factors associated with spousal violence in the last 12 months. Results. Partner’s problem drinking was the strongest risk factor associated with spousal violence in all 5 countries. In Moldova, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan, women with greater financial power than their spouses were more likely to experience violence. Effects of community economic deprivation and of empowerment status of women in the community on spousal violence differed across countries. Women living in communities with a high tolerance of violence faced a higher risk of spousal violence in Moldova and Ukraine. In more traditional countries (Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan), spousal violence was lower in conservative communities with patriarchal gender beliefs or higher financial dependency on husbands. Conclusions. My findings underscore the importance of examining individual risk factors in the context of community-level factors and developing individual- and community-level interventions. PMID:26378858

Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in US veterans: VII. Risk factors for MS.

PubMed

Kurtzke, J F; Page, W F

1997-01-01

In previous papers of this series, we explored the epidemiology of MS, examining the effects of race, sex, geography, latitude and climate, migration, age at onset, population ancestry, and individual ethnicity on the risk of MS, using an unusually large cohort of MS cases and pre-illness matched controls comprising US veterans of World War II (WWII) and the Korean Conflict (KC). In this paper, we examine primarily the effect of other factors on the risk of MS in this cohort and their relation to those previously studied. We found here that latitude tier of residence at entry into active duty (EAD), years of education, and socioeconomic class (coded from occupation) were similarly associated with MS risk among white men, black men, and white women. Higher levels of each factor showed increased MS risk. Multivariate analyses indicated that for white male WWII subjects an urban address, 9 or more years of education, uncorrected visual acuity less than 20/20 at EAD, a more northern latitude, and a higher proportion of the subject's EAD state population reporting Swedish ancestry each significantly increased the risk of MS. White male KC subjects showed roughly the same patterns, except that uncorrected visual acuity less than 20/20 was associated with lower MS risk (ancestry/ethnicity was not studied). For black male WWII and KC subjects combined, a similar analysis (omitting ancestry/ethnicity) showed that only latitude at EAD and 9 or more years of education were independently associated with a significantly higher MS risk, and for WWII plus KC white women (also without ancestry/ethnicity), only latitude was a significant risk factor in these multivariate analyses. The smaller number of subjects, especially in these last two groups, limited the power to detect statistically significant risks in these last analyses. Similarities to white men of WWII in univariate analyses for all other groups suggest that findings for the former would otherwise apply to the latter. Although the interpretations of these associations may be obscure, in addition to geography, age, sex, and race, per se, higher socioeconomic status is significantly associated with higher MS risk in black and white men and in white women in the United States.

Estimating Wisconsin Asthma Prevalence Using Clinical Electronic Health Records and Public Health Data

PubMed Central

Tomasallo, Carrie D.; Hanrahan, Lawrence P.; Tandias, Aman; Chang, Timothy S.; Cowan, Kelly J.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We compared a statewide telephone health survey with electronic health record (EHR) data from a large Wisconsin health system to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin. Methods. We developed frequency tables and logistic regression models using Wisconsin Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and University of Wisconsin primary care clinic data. We compared adjusted odds ratios (AORs) from each model. Results. Between 2007 and 2009, the EHR database contained 376 000 patients (30 000 with asthma), and 23 000 (1850 with asthma) responded to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone survey. AORs for asthma were similar in magnitude and direction for the majority of covariates, including gender, age, and race/ethnicity, between survey and EHR models. The EHR data had greater statistical power to detect associations than did survey data, especially in pediatric and ethnic populations, because of larger sample sizes. Conclusions. EHRs can be used to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin adults and children. EHR data may improve public health chronic disease surveillance using high-quality data at the local level to better identify areas of disparity and risk factors and guide education and health care interventions. PMID:24228643

Derivation and Evaluation of a Risk-Scoring Tool to Predict Participant Attrition in a Lifestyle Intervention Project.

PubMed

Jiang, Luohua; Yang, Jing; Huang, Haixiao; Johnson, Ann; Dill, Edward J; Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M; Roubideaux, Yvette

2016-05-01

Participant attrition in clinical trials and community-based interventions is a serious, common, and costly problem. In order to develop a simple predictive scoring system that can quantify the risk of participant attrition in a lifestyle intervention project, we analyzed data from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPI-DP), an evidence-based lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes in 36 American Indian and Alaska Native communities. SDPI-DP participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1600) and a validation cohort (n = 801). Logistic regressions were used to develop a scoring system from the derivation cohort. The discriminatory power and calibration properties of the system were assessed using the validation cohort. Seven independent factors predicted program attrition: gender, age, household income, comorbidity, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Six factors predicted long-term attrition: gender, age, marital status, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Each model exhibited moderate to fair discriminatory power (C statistic in the validation set: 0.70 for program attrition, and 0.66 for long-term attrition) and excellent calibration. The resulting scoring system offers a low-technology approach to identify participants at elevated risk for attrition in future similar behavioral modification intervention projects, which may inform appropriate allocation of retention resources. This approach also serves as a model for other efforts to prevent participant attrition.

Replication of LCE3C-LCE3B CNV as a risk factor for psoriasis and analysis of interaction with other genetic risk factors.

PubMed

Hüffmeier, Ulrike; Bergboer, Judith G M; Becker, Tim; Armour, John A; Traupe, Heiko; Estivill, Xavier; Riveira-Munoz, Eva; Mössner, Rotraut; Reich, Kristian; Kurrat, Werner; Wienker, Thomas F; Schalkwijk, Joost; Zeeuwen, Patrick L J M; Reis, André

2010-04-01

Recently, a deletion of two late cornified envelope (LCE) genes within the epidermal differentiation complex on chromosome 1 was shown to be overrepresented in 1,426 psoriasis vulgaris (PsV) patients of European ancestry. In this study, we report a confirmation of this finding in 1,354 PsV patients and 937 control individuals of German origin. We found an allele frequency of the deletion of 70.9% in PsV patients and of 64.9% in control individuals (chi(2)=17.44, P=2.97 x 10(-5), odds ratio (95% confidence interval)=1.31 (1.15-1.48)). The overall copy number of the two LCE genes had no influence on the age of onset, but we observed a dosage effect at the genotype level. There was no evidence of statistically significant interaction with copy number of the beta-defensin cluster on 8p23.1 or with an IL-23R pathway variant in a combined data set of German and Dutch individuals, whereas evidence for interaction with the PSORS1 risk allele in German individuals was marginal and did not remain significant after correction for multiple testing. Our study confirms the recently published finding that the deletion of the two LCE genes is a susceptibility factor for PsV with dosage effect, while, because of power limitation, no final conclusion regarding interaction with other PsV risk factors can be made at this stage.

Metabolic acidosis as a risk factor for the development of acute kidney injury and hospital mortality.

PubMed

Hu, Jiachang; Wang, Yimei; Geng, Xuemei; Chen, Rongyi; Xu, Xialian; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Lin, Jing; Teng, Jie; Ding, Xiaoqiang

2017-05-01

Metabolic acidosis has been proved to be a risk factor for the progression of chronic kidney disease, but its relation to acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been investigated. In general, a diagnosis of metabolic acidosis is based on arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis, but the diagnostic role of carbon dioxide combining power (CO 2 CP) in the venous blood may also be valuable to non-respiratory patients. This retrospective study included all adult non-respiratory patients admitted consecutively to our hospital between October 01, 2014 and September 30, 2015. A total of 71,089 non-respiratory patients were included, and only 4,873 patients were evaluated by ABG analysis at admission. In patients with ABG, acidosis, metabolic acidosis, decreased HCO 3 - and hypocapnia at admission was associated with the development of AKI, while acidosis and hypocapnia were independent predictors of hospital mortality. Among non-respiratory patients, decreased CO 2 CP at admission was an independent risk factor for AKI and hospital mortality. ROC curves indicated that CO 2 CP was a reasonable biomarker to exclude metabolic acidosis, dual and triple acid-base disturbances. The effect sizes of decreased CO 2 CP on AKI and hospital mortality varied according to age and different underlying diseases. Metabolic acidosis is an independent risk factor for the development of AKI and hospital mortality. In non-respiratory patient, decreased CO 2 CP is also an independent contributor to AKI and mortality and can be used as an indicator of metabolic acidosis.

A New Risk Factor Profile for Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Who Underwent an Emergency Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Yuan, Ying; Qiu, Hong; Song, Lei; Hu, Xiaoying; Luo, Tong; Zhao, Xueyan; Zhang, Jun; Wu, Yuan; Qiao, Shubin; Yang, Yuejin; Gao, Runlin

2018-07-01

We developed a new risk factor profile for contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) under a new definition in patients who underwent an emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Consecutive patients (n = 1061) who underwent an emergency PCI were divided into a derivation group (n = 761) and a validation group (n = 300). The rates of CI-AKI were 23.5% (definition 1: serum creatinine [SCr] increase ≥25% in 72 hours), 4.3% (definition 2: SCr increase ≥44.2 μmol/L in 72 hours), and 7.0% (definition 3: SCr increase ≥44.2 μmol/L in 7 days). Due to the high sensitivity of definition 1 and the high rate of missed cases for late diagnosis of CI-AKI under definition 2, definition 3 was used in the study. The risk factor profile included body surface area <1.6 m 2 ( P = .030), transient ischemic attack/stroke history ( P = .001), white blood cell count >15.00 × 10 9 /L ( P = .047), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ( P = .002) or baseline SCr >133 μmol/L ( P = .007), intra-aortic balloon pump application ( P = .006), and diuretics administration ( P < .001), showing a significant predictive power in the derivation group and validation group. The new risk factor profile of CI-AKI under a new CI-AKI definition in emergency PCI patients is easily applicable with a useful predictive value.

Children Seeking Refuge: A Review of the Escalating Humanitarian Crisis of Child Sexual Abuse and HIV/AIDS in Latin America.

PubMed

Thornton, Clifton P; Veenema, Tener Goodwin

2015-01-01

Early identification and intervention for victims of child sexual abuse (CSA) is essential to halting the spread of HIV in Latino populations because children who are sexually abused are at an increased risk of contracting HIV. The recent influx of unaccompanied children into the United States exposed histories of victimization, vulnerability to CSA, and suggested an epidemic of CSA in Latin America. CSA has been identified as a contributory event to HIV infection. The aim of our research was to identify factors associated with CSA and Latin Americans. A systematic review and a document search were conducted on factors associated with CSA in Latin America. Victimization was associated with lifelong risk factors for HIV. Males were consistently underrepresented in the published CSA literature and machismo attitudes may contribute to abuses of sexual power by males and contribute to males not reporting or under-reporting victimization. Copyright © 2015 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new perspective on severe nuclear accidents.

PubMed

Lee, Jaiki

2012-03-01

The reactions of the public in Korea to the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plants in Japan, particularly over-reactions, are reviewed, with the conclusion that significant radioactive contamination of a small country could lead to a severe national crisis. The most important factor is the socio-economic damage caused by stigma, which in turn is caused by a misunderstanding of the radiation risk. Given that nuclear power is an important choice in the face of the threat of climate change, the public's perceptions need to be changed at any cost, not only in those countries operating nuclear power plants but globally as well.

With power comes responsibility: motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio in relation to accident risk.

PubMed

Mattsson, Markus; Summala, Heikki

2010-02-01

Current European legislation allows the EU member states to restrict the maximum power output of motorcycles to 74 kW even though evidence supporting the limit is scarce and has produced mixed results-perhaps because motorcycle performance has been measured by engine displacement, not engine power, in most of the previous studies. This study investigates the relationship of motorcycle engine power and power-to-weight ratio to risk of fatal and nonfatal crashes in Finland. The fatality rate (number of fatal accidents/number of registered motorbikes) for riders of different ages riding bikes belonging to different power and power-to-weight ratio classes was examined using a comprehensive in-depth database. Data on nonfatal accidents were acquired from a Web questionnaire (N = 2708), which also served as a basis for estimating riders' annual mileage. Mileage data allowed the calculation of accident risk per kilometer ridden for bikes differing in power and power-to-weight ratio. The fatality risk per number of registered motorcycles and per kilometer ridden increases both with power and power-to-weight ratio, independently of rider's age. No relationship between performance and risk of a less severe crash was found. The pre-accident speed of the most powerful bikes was 20 km/h or more over the speed limit in a large proportion of the fatal accidents (odds ratio = 4.8 for > 75 kW motorbikes; odds ratio = 6.2 for > 0.3 kW/kg motorbikes). The risk of being involved in a fatal crash is higher among the riders of powerful motorcycles. However, it is not clear whether the results are related to the riding habits of the riders that choose the most powerful bikes available or whether the high risk is due to the properties of the bikes themselves. Therefore, further research is needed before considering legal limits on motorcycle performance.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model: Part 1—Statistical Methodology

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Sean M.; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Gaynor, J. William; Karamlou, Tara; Welke, Karl F.; Filardo, Giovanni; Han, Jane M.; Kim, Sunghee; Shahian, David M.; Jacobs, Marshall L.

2016-01-01

Background This study’s objective was to develop a risk model incorporating procedure type and patient factors to be used for case-mix adjustment in the analysis of hospital-specific operative mortality rates after congenital cardiac operations. Methods Included were patients of all ages undergoing cardiac operations, with or without cardiopulmonary bypass, at centers participating in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database during January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013. Excluded were isolated patent ductus arteriosus closures in patients weighing less than or equal to 2.5 kg, centers with more than 10% missing data, and patients with missing data for key variables. Data from the first 3.5 years were used for model development, and data from the last 0.5 year were used for assessing model discrimination and calibration. Potential risk factors were proposed based on expert consensus and selected after empirically comparing a variety of modeling options. Results The study cohort included 52,224 patients from 86 centers with 1,931 deaths (3.7%). Covariates included in the model were primary procedure, age, weight, and 11 additional patient factors reflecting acuity status and comorbidities. The C statistic in the validation sample was 0.858. Plots of observed-vs-expected mortality rates revealed good calibration overall and within subgroups, except for a slight overestimation of risk in the highest decile of predicted risk. Removing patient preoperative factors from the model reduced the C statistic to 0.831 and affected the performance classification for 12 of 86 hospitals. Conclusions The risk model is well suited to adjust for case mix in the analysis and reporting of hospital-specific mortality for congenital heart operations. Inclusion of patient factors added useful discriminatory power and reduced bias in the calculation of hospital-specific mortality metrics. PMID:26245502

A prioritization of generic safety issues. Supplement 19, Revision insertion instructions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1995-11-01

The report presents the safety priority ranking for generic safety issues related to nuclear power plants. The purpose of these rankings is to assist in the timely and efficient allocation of NRC resources for the resolution of those safety issues that have a significant potential for reducing risk. The safety priority rankings are HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW, and DROP, and have been assigned on the basis of risk significance estimates, the ratio of risk to costs and other impacts estimated to result if resolution of the safety issues were implemented, and the consideration of uncertainties and other quantitative or qualitative factors.more » To the extent practical, estimates are quantitative. This document provides revisions and amendments to the report.« less

Variations in respiratory sounds in relation to fluid accumulation in the upper airways.

PubMed

Yadollahi, Azadeh; Rudzicz, Frank; Montazeri, Aman; Bradley, T Douglas

2013-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder due to recurrent collapse of the upper airway (UA) during sleep that increases the risk for several cardiovascular diseases. Recently, we showed that nocturnal fluid accumulation in the neck can narrow the UA and predispose to OSA. Our goal is to develop non-invasive methods to study the pathogenesis of OSA and the factors that increase the risks of developing it. Respiratory sound analysis is a simple and non-invasive way to study variations in the properties of the UA. In this study we examine whether such analysis can be used to estimate the amount of neck fluid volume and whether fluid accumulation in the neck alters the properties of these sounds. Our acoustic features include estimates of formants, pitch, energy, duration, zero crossing rate, average power, Mel frequency power, Mel cepstral coefficients, skewness, and kurtosis across segments of sleep. Our results show that while all acoustic features vary significantly among subjects, only the variations in respiratory sound energy, power, duration, pitch, and formants varied significantly over time. Decreases in energy and power over time accompany increases in neck fluid volume which may indicate narrowing of UA and consequently an increased risk of OSA. Finally, simple discriminant analysis was used to estimate broad classes of neck fluid volume from acoustic features with an accuracy of 75%. These results suggest that acoustic analysis of respiratory sounds might be used to assess the role of fluid accumulation in the neck on the pathogenesis of OSA.

Ethical implications for clinical practice and future research in "at risk" individuals.

PubMed

Singh, Fiza; Mirzakhanian, Heline; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; de la Fuente-Sandoval, Camilo; Cadenhead, Kristin S

2012-01-01

The last 15 years have witnessed a shift in schizophrenia research with increasing interest in earlier stages of illness with the hope of early intervention and ultimately prevention of psychotic illness. Large-scale longitudinal studies have identified clinical and biological risk factors associated with increased risk of psychotic conversion, which together with symptomatic and demographic risk factors may improve the power of prediction algorithms for psychotic transition. Despite these advances, 45-70% of at risk subjects in most samples do not convert to frank psychosis, but continue to function well below their age matched counterparts. The issue is of utmost importance in light of the upcoming DSM-V and the possible inclusion of the attenuated psychotic symptoms syndrome (APSS) diagnosis, with clinical and ethical implications. Clinical considerations include feasibility of reliably diagnosing the at risk state in non-academic medical centers, variable psychotic conversion rates, a non-uniform definition of conversion and extensive debate about treatment for individuals with an ill-defined outcome. On the ethical side, diagnosing APSS could lead to unnecessary prescribing of antipsychotics with long-term deleterious consequences, slow research by providing a false sense of comfort in the diagnosis, and have psychosocial implications for those who receive a diagnosis. Thus it may be prudent to engage at risk populations early and to use broad-spectrum treatments with low risk benefit ratios to relieve functional impairments, while simultaneously studying all subsets of the at risk population.

Initiation of sexual intercourse among middle school adolescents: the influence of psychosocial factors.

PubMed

Santelli, John S; Kaiser, Javaid; Hirsch, Lesley; Radosh, Alice; Simkin, Linda; Middlestadt, Susan

2004-03-01

To explore potential psychosocial predictors for initiation of sexual intercourse among middle-school, inner-city youth, using longitudinal data from the Healthy and Alive! project. We conducted hierarchical, logistic regression with adjustment for intraclass correlation over two sequential periods, including seventh and eighth grades (N = 3163), to assess the independent influence of psychosocial and demographic factors. Internally reliable scales to assess psychosocial influences were created, based on major theories of behavior. The sample was 52% female, 51% black, 30% Hispanic, 9% white, and 3% Asian. At baseline, 13% of girls and 39% of boys reported already having initiated sexual intercourse. Personal and perceived peer norms about refraining from sex were a strong and consistent protective factor. Alcohol and other drug use, poor academic performance, male gender, and black race were consistent risk factors. Self-efficacy showed a mixed effect: protective in the seventh grade but increasing risk in the eighth grade. Speaking a language other than English was a protective factor in seventh grade. Both psychosocial and demographic factors provided independent explanatory power. Psychosocial factors, particularly norms about having sex, influence initiation of sexual intercourse. These data suggest that programs to delay initiation of sexual intercourse should reinforce norms about refraining from sex.

A Risk-Scoring System for Predicting Methicillin Resistance in Community-Onset Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia in Korea.

PubMed

Suh, Hyeon Jeong; Park, Wan Beom; Jung, Sook-In; Song, Kyoung-Ho; Kwak, Yee Gyung; Kim, Kye-Hyung; Hwang, Jeong-Hwan; Yun, Na Ra; Jang, Hee-Chang; Kim, Young Keun; Kim, Nak-Hyun; Park, Kyung-Hwa; Kang, Seung Ji; Lee, Shinwon; Kim, Eu Suk; Kim, Hong Bin

2018-06-01

We aimed to develop a simple scoring system to predict risk for methicillin resistance in community-onset Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (CO-SAB) by identifying the clinical and epidemiological risk factors for community-onset methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA). We retrospectively analyzed data from three multicenter cohort studies in Korea in which patient information was prospectively collected and risk factors for methicillin resistance in CO-SAB were identified. We then developed and validated a risk-scoring system. To analyze the 1,802 cases of CO-SAB, we included the four most powerful predictors of methicillin resistance that we identified in the scoring system: underlying hematologic disease (-1 point), endovascular infection as the primary site of infection (-1 point), history of hospitalization or surgery in ≤1 year (+0.5 points), and previous isolation of MRSA in ≤6 months (+1.5 points). With this scoring system, cases were classified into low (less than -0.5), intermediate (-0.5-1.5), and high (≥1.5) risk groups. The proportions of MRSA cases in each group were 24.7% (22/89), 39.0% (607/1,557), and 78.8% (123/156), respectively, and 16.7% (1/6), 33.8% (112/331), and 76.9% (10/13) in a validation set. This risk-scoring system for methicillin resistance in CO-SAB may help physicians select appropriate empirical antibiotics more quickly.

The incidence of occult malignancy following uterine morcellation: A ten-year single institution experience retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Mori, Kristina M; Abaid, Lisa N; Mendivil, Alberto A; Brown, John V; Beck, Tiffany L; Micha, John P; Epstein, Howard D; Goldstein, Bram H

2018-05-01

When the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initially reported on the parlous incidence (0.28%) of occult malignancy identified following uterine power morcellation, investigations thereafter documented their particular experience with this surgical procedure. Nevertheless, the precise risk of identifying a sarcoma following uterine morcellation remains indeterminate, primarily due to varying study patient risk factors, diagnostic criteria and operative approach. We retrospectively evaluated subjects who underwent an endoscopic hysterectomy and uterine power morcellation for the treatment of a presumptive, benign indication from January 2006 until December 2015. The primary outcome was the incidence of an occult malignancy. Secondarily, we were interested in characterizing the patients' specific clinical (age, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI)) risk factors within the context of a confirmed malignant or pre-malignant pathology. We identified 281 patients who underwent endoscopic surgery that incorporated uterine morcellation. During the study period, one subject was ultimately diagnosed with a uterine leiomyosarcoma; the overall incidence of occult malignancy was 0.36%. There were also 3 cases of uterine premalignant disease on final pathology (2 patients had complex hyperplasia with or without atypia and 1 subject was diagnosed with a smooth muscle tumor of uncertain malignant potential (an incidence of 1.1%)). We were unable to establish any relationship between patient age, uterine weight, menopausal status or BMI and the incidence of a malignant or pre-malignant pathology (P > 0.05). The rate of occult malignancy in the present investigation was similar to previously documented studies and that which has been reported by the FDA. Additional study of methods in which to enhance preoperative work-up and mitigate the surgical risk for tumor cell dissemination is warranted. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Powered two-wheeler drivers' risk of hitting a pedestrian in towns.

PubMed

Clabaux, Nicolas; Fournier, Jean-Yves; Michel, Jean-Emmanuel

2014-12-01

The risk of collision between pedestrians and powered two-wheelers is poorly understood today. The objective of this research is to determine the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting and injuring a pedestrian per kilometer driven in towns and to compare this risk with that run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers. Using the bodily injury accidents recorded by the police on nine roads in the city of Marseille in 2011 and a campaign of observations of powered two-wheeler traffic, we estimated the risk per kilometer driven by powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting a pedestrian and compared it with the risk run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers. The results show that the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting and injuring a pedestrian is significantly higher than the risk run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers. On the nine roads studied, it is on average 3.33 times higher (95% CI: 1.63; 6.78). Taking four more years into account made it possible to consolidate these results and to tighten the confidence interval. There does indeed seem to be problems in the interactions between pedestrians and powered two-wheeler users in urban traffic. These interaction problems lead to a higher risk of hitting and injuring a pedestrian for powered two-wheeler drivers than for four-wheeled vehicle drivers. The analysis of the police reports suggests that part of this increased risk comes from filtering maneuvers by powered two-wheelers. Possible countermeasures deal with the urban street layout. Measures consisting in reducing the width and the number of traffic lanes to a strict minimum and installing medians or pedestrian islands could be an effective way for the prevention of urban accidents between pedestrians and powered two-wheelers. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio-economic factors and suicide rates in European Union countries.

PubMed

Ferretti, Fabio; Coluccia, Anna

2009-04-01

Are socio-economic factors valid determinants of suicide? The modern sociological theory of suicide is based on Durkheim's studies. In addition to these fundamental social determinants, modern theorists have put more attention on economic factors. The purpose of the research is to determine the relationship between suicide rates and socio-economic factors, such as demography, economic development, education, healthcare systems, living conditions and labour market. All data were collected from a Eurostat publication and they concern 25 European Union countries. In order to test this relationship, a discriminant analysis was performed using an ordinal dependent variable and a set of independent variables concerning socio-economic factors. A dataset of 37 independent variables was used. We estimated a model with five variables: annual growth rates for industry, people working in S&T (% of total employment), at-risk-of-poverty rate, all accidents (standardized rates), and healthcare expenditures (% of GDP). Highly significant values of Wilk's Lambda assess a good discriminating power of the model. The accuracy too is very high: all cases are correctly classified by the model. Countries with high suicide rate levels are marked by high levels of at-risk-of-poverty rates, high annual growth rates for industry and low healthcare expenditures.

Potential role of liver enzymes levels as predictor markers of glucose metabolism disorders in Tunisian population.

PubMed

Bouhajja, Houda; Abdelhedi, Rania; Amouri, Ali; Hadj Kacem, Faten; Marrakchi, Rim; Safi, Wajdi; Mrabet, Houcem; Chtourou, Lassaad; Charfi, Nadia; Fourati, Mouna; Bensassi, Salwa; Jamoussi, Kamel; Abid, Mohamed; Ayadi, Hammadi; Feki, Mouna Mnif; Elleuch, Noura Bougacha

2018-03-10

The relationship between liver enzymes and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk is inconclusive. We aimed to evaluate the association between liver markers and risk of carbohydrate metabolism disorders and their discriminatory power for T2D prediction. This cross-sectional study enrolled 216 participants classified as normoglycemic, prediabetes, newly-diagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes. All participants underwent anthropometric and biochemical measurements. The relationship between hepatic enzymes and glucose metabolism markers was evaluated by ANCOVA analyses. The associations between liver enzymes and incident carbohydrate metabolism disorders were analyzed through logistic regression and their discriminatory capacity for T2D by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. High alkaline phosphatase (AP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), γ-glutamyltransferase (γGT) and aspartate aminotrasferase (AST) levels were independently related to decreased insulin sensitivity. Interestingly, higher AP level was significantly associated with increased risk of prediabetes (p=0.017), newly-diagnosed diabetes (p=0.004) and T2D (p=0.007). Elevated γGT level was an independent risk factor for T2D (p=0.032) and undiagnosed-T2D (p=0.010) in prediabetic and normoglycemic subjects, respectively. In ROC analysis, AP was a powerful predictor of incident diabetes and significantly improved T2D prediction. Liver enzymes within normal range, specifically AP levels, are associated with increased risk of carbohydrate metabolism disorders and significantly improved T2D prediction.

Type 2 Diabetes Risk Allele Loci in the Qatari Population

PubMed Central

Abi Khalil, Charbel; Fakhro, Khalid A.; Robay, Amal; Ramstetter, Monica D.; Al-Azwani, Iman K.; Malek, Joel A.; Zirie, Mahmoud; Jayyousi, Amin; Badii, Ramin; Al-Nabet Al-Marri, Ajayeb; Chiuchiolo, Maria J.; Al-Shakaki, Alya; Chidiac, Omar; Gharbiah, Maey; Bener, Abdulbari; Stadler, Dora; Hackett, Neil R.; Mezey, Jason G.; Crystal, Ronald G.

2016-01-01

Background The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing in the Middle East. However, the genetic risk factors for T2D in the Middle Eastern populations are not known, as the majority of studies of genetic risk for T2D are in Europeans and Asians. Methods All subjects were ≥3 generation Qataris. Cases with T2D (n = 1,124) and controls (n = 590) were randomly recruited and assigned to the 3 known Qatari genetic subpopulations [Bedouin (Q1), Persian/South Asian (Q2) and African (Q3)]. Subjects underwent genotyping for 37 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 29 genes known to be associated with T2D in Europeans and/or Asian populations, and an additional 27 tag SNPs related to these susceptibility loci. Pre-study power analysis suggested that with the known incidence of T2D in adult Qataris (22%), the study population size would be sufficient to detect significant differences if the SNPs were risk factors among Qataris, assuming that the odds ratio (OR) for T2D SNPs in Qatari’s is greater than or equal to the SNP with highest known OR in other populations. Results Haplotype analysis demonstrated that Qatari haplotypes in the region of known T2D risk alleles in Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations were similar to European haplotypes. After Benjamini-Hochberg adjustment for multiple testing, only two SNPs (rs7903146 and rs4506565), both associated with transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2), achieved statistical significance in the whole study population. When T2D subjects and control subjects were assigned to the known 3 Qatari subpopulations, and analyzed individually and with the Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations combined, one of these SNPs (rs4506565) was also significant in the admixed group. No other SNPs associated with T2D in all Qataris or individual genetic subpopulations. Conclusions With the caveats of the power analysis, the European/Asian T2D SNPs do not contribute significantly to the high prevalence of T2D in the Qatari population, suggesting that the genetic risks for T2D are likely different in Qataris compared to Europeans and Asians. PMID:27383215

Quantifying Multiple Work-Related Psychosocial Risk Factors: Proposal for a Composite Indicator Based on the COPSOQ II.

PubMed

Stauder, Adrienne; Nistor, Katalin; Zakor, Tünde; Szabó, Anita; Nistor, Anikó; Ádám, Szilvia; Konkolÿ Thege, Barna

2017-12-01

To determine national reference values for the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II) across occupational sectors and develop a composite score to estimate the cumulative effect of multiple work-related stressors, in order to facilitate the implementation of occupational health directives on psychosocial risk assessment. Cross-sectional data was collected via an online questionnaire. The sample included 13,104 individuals and was representative of the general Hungarian adult working population in terms of gender, age, education, and occupation. Mean scores were calculated for 18 scales on work environment and for 5 outcome scales of the COPSOQ II across 18 occupational sectors. We analyzed the association between a composite psychosocial risk score (CPRS), reflecting severity of exposure to multiple risk factors, and high stress, burnout, sleep troubles, and poor self-rated health. We found occupation-related differences in the mean scores on all COPSOQ II scales. Scores on the "Stress" scale ranged from 47.9 to 56.2, with the highest mean score in accommodation and food services sector. Variability was greatest with respect to emotional demands (range 40.3-67.6) and smallest with respect to role clarity (range 70.3-75.7). The prevalence of negative health outcomes increased with the CPRS. Five risk categories were formed, for which the odds ratio of negative outcomes ranged from 1.6 to 56.5. The sector-specific psychosocial risk profiles covering 18 work environmental factors can be used as a reference in organizational surveys and international comparisons. The CPRS proved to be a powerful predictor of self-reported negative health outcomes.

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

PubMed

Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

2016-12-01

As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Decision support in addiction: The development of an e-health tool to assess and prevent risk of fatal overdose. The ORION Project.

PubMed

Baldacchino, A; Crocamo, C; Humphris, G; Neufeind, J; Frisher, M; Scherbaum, N; Carrà, G

2016-09-01

The application of e-health technology to the field of substance use disorders is at a relatively early stage, and methodological quality is still variable. Few have explored the extent of utilization of communication technology in exploring risk perception by patients enrolled in substance abuse services. The Overdose RIsk InfOrmatioN (ORION) project is a European Commission funded programme, aimed to develop and pilot an e-health psycho-educational tool to provide information to drug using individuals about the risks of suffering a drug overdose. In this article, we report on phase 1 (risk estimation), phase 2 (design), and phase 3 (feasibility) of the ORION project. The development of ORION e-health tool underlined the importance of an evidence-based intervention aimed in obtaining reliable evaluation of risk. The ORION tool supported a decision making process aimed at influencing the substance users' self-efficacy and the degree to which the substance users' understand risk factors. Therefore, its innovative power consisted in translating risks combination into a clear estimation for the user who will then appear more likely to be interested in his/her risk perception. Exploratory field testing and validation confirmed the next stage of evaluation, namely, collection of routine patient samples in study clinics. The associations between risk perception of overdose, engagement with the ORION tool and willingness to alter overdose risk factors, in a clinical setting across various EU member states will further confirm the ORION tool's generalisability and effectiveness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Therapeutic use of hematopoietic growth factors. II. GM-CSF and G-CSF].

PubMed

Royer, B; Arock, M

1998-01-01

The second part of this review on haematopoietic growth factors is focused on the therapeutic use of GM-CSF and G-CSF. Such therapeutic applications have raised very great hopes for clinical haematology. However, it should not be forgotten that these haematopoietic growth factors, which are very costly, are powerful two-edged weapons capable of triggering a cascade of reactions, and have a field of activity that often goes beyond the single highly specific property which it is hoped they possess. The risks and costs of their use are currently being evaluated. Waited developments concerning these molecules focus on three axes: a best use of factors already commercialized, especially concerning adaptation of posologies and new indications, the development of hybrid molecules from already known haematopoietic growth factors, possessing the advantages of respective factors, but not their disadvantages, the discovery of new haematopoietic growth factors with potential therapeutic application.

Nutritional deficiencies in the developing world: current status and opportunities for intervention.

PubMed

Khan, Yasir; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2010-12-01

Several contributory factors such as poverty, lack of purchasing power, household food insecurity, and limited general knowledge about appropriate nutritional practices increase the risk of undernutrition in developing countries. The synergistic interaction between inadequate dietary intake and disease burden leads to a vicious cycle that accounts for much of the high morbidity and mortality in these countries. Three groups of underlying factors contribute to inadequate dietary intake and infectious disease: inadequate maternal and child care, household food insecurity, and poor health services in an unhealthy environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Philosophy of ATHEANA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bley, D.C.; Cooper, S.E.; Forester, J.A.

ATHEANA, a second-generation Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method integrates advances in psychology with engineering, human factors, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) disciplines to provide an HRA quantification process and PRA modeling interface that can accommodate and represent human performance in real nuclear power plant events. The method uses the characteristics of serious accidents identified through retrospective analysis of serious operational events to set priorities in a search process for significant human failure events, unsafe acts, and error-forcing context (unfavorable plant conditions combined with negative performance-shaping factors). ATHEANA has been tested in a demonstration project at an operating pressurized water reactor.

Risk factors for development of dementia in a unique six-year cohort study. I. An exploratory, pilot study of involvement of the E4 allele of apolipoprotein E, mutations of the hemochromatosis-HFE gene, type 2 diabetes, and stroke.

PubMed

Percy, Maire; Somerville, Martin J; Hicks, Mark; Garcia, Angeles; Colelli, Teresa; Wright, Emily; Kitaygorodsky, Julia; Jiang, Amy; Ho, Valerie; Parpia, Alyssa; Wong, Michael K

2014-01-01

Risk factors for dementia development are not well-defined. We evaluated several factors alone and in combination in a unique cohort of Caucasian volunteers over an approximately 6-year observation window using a nested case/control design. Factors included: apolipoprotein E (ApoE) gene variants (the E4 allele is the strongest confirmed genetic predisposing factor for Alzheimer's disease), the hemochromatosis-HFE gene mutations (H63D and C282Y), diabetes, and stroke. At study entry, subjects were ≥65 years of age (M ± SD = 73.0 ± 4.9), had an MMSE score ≥24, and no evidence of cerebrovascular disease or current depression. Genotyping was completed on 163 available DNA samples from three different groups at the study end: those who still had normal cognitive function; those who had developed dementia; and those with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Analyses were interpreted at the 95% confidence level without Bonferroni corrections. In the subgroup with dementia, all cases of diabetes were type 2 and present at study entry, whereas all strokes occurred during the study. The results highlight apparently synergistic interactions between genetic and medical risk factors for dementia development, gender differences in risk factors, and involvement of HFE mutations. Having E4 (i.e., either of E3/4 or E4/4), C282Y, H63D, diabetes, or stroke alone did not attain significance. Significant predisposing factors with post-hoc power ≥80% were: E4 homozygosity (E4/4)males+females, odds ratio (OR) = 56.0); E4+diabetes (males+females, OR = 13.7; E4+H63D+diabetes (females, OR = 52.0); E4+stroke (males, OR = 46.5). The importance of preventing diabetes and stroke to ward off dementia and the possible role of iron dysmetabolism in dementia are discussed.

Lower-extremity resistance training on unstable surfaces improves proxies of muscle strength, power and balance in healthy older adults: a randomised control trial.

PubMed

Eckardt, Nils

2016-11-24

It is well documented that both balance and resistance training have the potential to mitigate intrinsic fall risk factors in older adults. However, knowledge about the effects of simultaneously executed balance and resistance training (i.e., resistance training conducted on unstable surfaces [URT]) on lower-extremity muscle strength, power and balance in older adults is insufficient. The objective of the present study was to compare the effects of machine-based stable resistance training (M-SRT) and two types of URT, i.e., machine-based (M-URT) and free-weight URT (F-URT), on measures of lower-extremity muscle strength, power and balance in older adults. Seventy-five healthy community-dwelling older adults aged 65-80 years, were assigned to three intervention groups: M-SRT, M-URT and F-URT. Over a period of ten weeks, all participants exercised two times per week with each session lasting ~60 min. Tests included assessment of leg muscle strength (e.g., maximal isometric leg extension strength), power (e.g., chair rise test) and balance (e.g., functional reach test), carried out before and after the training period. Furthermore, maximal training load of the squat-movement was assessed during the last training week. Maximal training load of the squat-movement was significantly lower in F-URT in comparison to M-SRT and M-URT. However, lower-extremity resistance training conducted on even and uneven surfaces meaningfully improved proxies of strength, power and balance in all groups. M-URT produced the greatest improvements in leg extension strength and F-URT in the chair rise test and functional reach test. Aside from two interaction effects, overall improvements in measures of lower-extremity muscle strength, power and balance were similar across training groups. Importantly, F-URT produced similar results with considerably lower training load as compared to M-SRT and M-URT. Concluding, F-URT seems an effective and safe alternative training program to mitigate intrinsic fall risk factors in older adults. This trial has been registered with clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT02555033 ) on 09/18/2015.

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using genetic prediction from known complex disease Loci to guide the design of next-generation sequencing experiments.

PubMed

Jostins, Luke; Levine, Adam P; Barrett, Jeffrey C

2013-01-01

A central focus of complex disease genetics after genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is to identify low frequency and rare risk variants, which may account for an important fraction of disease heritability unexplained by GWAS. A profusion of studies using next-generation sequencing are seeking such risk alleles. We describe how already-known complex trait loci (largely from GWAS) can be used to guide the design of these new studies by selecting cases, controls, or families who are most likely to harbor undiscovered risk alleles. We show that genetic risk prediction can select unrelated cases from large cohorts who are enriched for unknown risk factors, or multiply-affected families that are more likely to harbor high-penetrance risk alleles. We derive the frequency of an undiscovered risk allele in selected cases and controls, and show how this relates to the variance explained by the risk score, the disease prevalence and the population frequency of the risk allele. We also describe a new method for informing the design of sequencing studies using genetic risk prediction in large partially-genotyped families using an extension of the Inside-Outside algorithm for inference on trees. We explore several study design scenarios using both simulated and real data, and show that in many cases genetic risk prediction can provide significant increases in power to detect low-frequency and rare risk alleles. The same approach can also be used to aid discovery of non-genetic risk factors, suggesting possible future utility of genetic risk prediction in conventional epidemiology. Software implementing the methods in this paper is available in the R package Mangrove.

Electric portfolio modeling with stochastic water - climate interactions: Implications for co-management of water and electric utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldeyesus, Tibebe Argaw

Water supply constraints can significantly restrict electric power generation, and such constraints are expected to worsen with future climate change. The overarching goal of this thesis is to incorporate stochastic water-climate interactions into electricity portfolio models and evaluate various pathways for water savings in co-managed water-electric utilities. Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU) is used as a case study to explore the above issues. The thesis consists of three objectives: Characterize seasonality of water withdrawal intensity factors (WWIF) for electric power generation and develop a risk assessment framework due to water shortages; Incorporate water constraints into electricity portfolio models and evaluate the impact of varying capital investments (both power generation and cooling technologies) on water use and greenhouse gas emissions; Compare the unit cost and overall water savings from both water and electric sectors in co-managed utilities to facilitate overall water management. This thesis provided the first discovery and characterization of seasonality of WWIF with distinct summertime and wintertime variations of +/-17% compared to the power plant average (0.64gal/kwh) which itself is found to be significantly higher than the literature average (0.53gal/kwh). Both the streamflow and WWIF are found to be highly correlated with monthly average temperature (r-sq = 89%) and monthly precipitation (r-sq of 38%) enabling stochastic simulation of future WWIF under moderate climate change scenario. Future risk to electric power generation also showed the risk to be underestimated significantly when using either the literature average or the power plant average WWIF. Seasonal variation in WWIF along with seasonality in streamflow, electricity demand and other municipal water demands along with storage are shown to be important factors for more realistic risk estimation. The unlimited investment in power generation and/or cooling technologies is also found to save water and GHG emissions by 68% and 75% respectively at a marginal levelized cost increase of 12%. In contrast, the zero investment scenarios (which optimizes exiting technologies to address water scarcity constraints on power generation) shows 50% water savings and 23% GHG emissions reduction at a relatively high marginal levelized cost increase of 37%. Water saving strategies in electric sector show very high cost of water savings (48,000 and 200,000)/Mgal-year under unlimited investment and zero investment scenarios respectively, but they have greater water saving impacts of 6% to CSU municipal water demand; while the individual water saving strategies from water sector have low cost of water savings ranging from (37-1,500)/Mgal-year but with less than 0.5% water reduction impact to CSU due to their low penetration. On the other hand, use of reclaimed water for power plant cooling systems have shown great water savings of up to 92% against the BAU and cost of water saving from (0-73,000)/Mgal-year when integrated with unlimited investment and zero investment water minimizing scenarios respectively in the electric sector. Overall, cities need to focus primarily on use of reclaimed water and in new generation technologies' investment including cooling system retrofits while focusing on expanding the penetration rate of individual water saving strategies in the water sector.

Sexual scripting of heterosexual penile-anal intercourse amongst participants in an HIV prevention trial in South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Duby, Zoe; Hartmann, Miriam; Montgomery, Elizabeth T.; Colvin, Christopher J.; Mensch, Barbara; van der Straten, Ariane

2015-01-01

Sexual risk-taking is influenced by individual, interpersonal and social factors. This paper presents findings from a qualitative followup study to a clinical trial evaluating biomedical HIV prevention products among African women, explored participants’ perceptions and experiences of heterosexual penile-anal intercourse, as well as the gendered power dynamics and relationship contexts in which this sexual behaviour occurs. In-depth interviews were conducted with 88 women from South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Findings reveal that despite its social stigmatisation, women engage in penile-anal intercourse for reasons including male pleasure, relationship security, hiding infidelity, menstruation, vaginal infections, money and beliefs that it will prevent HIV transmission. In addition, participants described experiences of non-consensual penile-anal intercourse. We used sexual scripting theory as an analytical framework with which to describe the sociocultural and relationship contexts and gendered power dynamics in which these practices occur. These data on the distinct individual, dyadic and social contexts of heterosexual penile-anal intercourse, and the specific factors that may contribute to women’s HIV risk, make a unique contribution to our understanding of heterosexual behaviour in these sub-Saharan countries, thereby helping to inform both current and future HIV prevention efforts for women in the region. PMID:26223703

Behavioral HIV Prevention Interventions Among Latinas in the US: A Systematic Review of the Evidence.

PubMed

Daniel-Ulloa, Jason; Ulibarri, M; Baquero, B; Sleeth, C; Harig, H; Rhodes, S D

2016-12-01

Compared to White women, Latinas are 4 times more likely to contract HIV. In an effort to determine the overall state of the science meant to address this disparity, we reviewed the current HIV prevention intervention literature for U.S. Latinas. We searched 5 online electronic databases from their inception through July, 2014, for HIV prevention interventions including a majority sample of Latinas. Of 1041 articles identified, 20 studies met inclusion criteria. We documented study designs, participant characteristics, outcomes, theories used, and other intervention characteristics. Overall, HIV knowledge and attitudes were the predominant outcome; a small minority of studies included self-reported condom use or STD incidence. Strategies used to address cultural factors specific to Latinas and HIV included; lay health advisors, using ethnographic narratives, or using the Theory of Gender and Power, however few of the interventions adopted these strategies. This study identified several gaps in the intervention literature that need to be addressed. In addition to including more direct measures of decreased HIV risk (ex. condom use), more systematic use of strategies meant to address gender and cultural factors that may place Latinas at increased risk (e.g., gender inequity, traditional gender role norms such as machismo and marianismo, and relationship power dynamics).

The effects of trauma on perinatal depression: Examining trajectories of depression from pregnancy through 24 months postpartum in an at-risk population.

PubMed

Grekin, Rebecca; Brock, Rebecca L; O'Hara, Michael W

2017-08-15

Research suggests that trauma exposure is associated with perinatal depression; however, little is known about the nature of the relation between trauma history and trajectory of depression, as well as the predictive power of trauma history beyond other risk factors. Additionally, more research is needed in at-risk samples that are likely to experience severe traumatic exposure. Secondary data analysis was conducted using demographic and depression data from the Healthy Start and Empowerment Family Support programs in Des Moines, Iowa. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine trajectories of perinatal depressive symptoms, from pregnancy to 24 months postpartum, and clarify whether trauma exposure, relationship status, and substance use uniquely contribute to trajectories of symptoms over time. On average, depressive symptoms decreased from pregnancy to 24 months postpartum; however, trajectories varied across women. Single relationship status, substance use, and trauma history were each predictors of higher depression levels at several points in time across the observed perinatal period. Single relationship status was also associated with decline in depressive symptoms followed by a rebound of symptoms at 22 months postpartum. These data were not collected for research purposes and thus did not undergo the rigorous data collection strategies typically implemented in an established research study. History of trauma, substance use and single relationship status represent unique risk factors for perinatal depression. For single women, depressive symptoms rebound late in the postpartum period. Single women are at greater risk for substance use and traumatic exposure and represent a sample with cumulative risk. Eliciting social support may be an important intervention for women presenting with these risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Private sector tuberculosis prevention in the US: Characteristics associated with interferon-gamma release assay or tuberculin skin testing.

PubMed

Stockbridge, Erica L; Miller, Thaddeus L; Carlson, Erin K; Ho, Christine

2018-01-01

To determine whether latent tuberculosis infection risk factors are associated with an increased likelihood of latent tuberculosis infection testing in the US private healthcare sector. A national sample of medical and pharmacy claims representing services rendered January 2011 through December 2013 for 3,997,986 commercially insured individuals in the US who were 0 to 64 years of age. We used multivariable logistic regression models to determine whether TB/LTBI risk factors were associated with an increased likelihood of Interferon-Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) or Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) testing in the private sector. 4.31% (4.27-4.34%) received at least one TST/IGRA test between 2011 and 2013 while 1.69% (1.67-1.72%) received a TST/IGRA test in 2013. Clinical risk factors associated with a significantly increased likelihood of testing included HIV, immunosuppressive therapy, exposure to tuberculosis, a history of tuberculosis, diabetes, tobacco use, end stage renal disease, and alcohol use disorder. Other significant variables included gender, age, asthma, the state tuberculosis rate, population density, and percent of foreign-born persons in a county. Private sector TST/IGRA testing is not uncommon and testing varies with clinical risk indicators. Thus, the private sector can be a powerful resource in the fight against tuberculosis. Analyses of administrative data can inform how best to leverage private sector healthcare toward tuberculosis prevention activities.

Hydration status measured by BCM: A potential modifiable risk factor for peritonitis in patients on peritoneal dialysis.

PubMed

Santhakumaran, Territa; Samad, Nasreen; Fan, Stanley L

2016-05-01

Peritoneal dialysis peritonitis and fluid overhydration (OH) are frequent problems in peritoneal dialysis. The latter can cause gut wall oedema or be associated with malnutrition. Both may lead to increased peritonitis risk. We wished to determine if OH is an independent risk factor for peritonitis (caused by enteric organisms). Retrospectively study of patients with >2 bioimpedance assessments (Body Composition Monitor). We compared peritonitis rates of patients with above or below the median time-averaged hydration parameter (OH/extracellular water, OH/ECW). Multivariate analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors for peritonitis by enteric organism. We studied 580 patients. Peritonitis was experienced by 28% patients (followed up for an average of 17 months). The overall peritonitis rate was 1:34 patient months. Patients with low OH/ECW values had significantly lower rates of peritonitis from enteric organisms than overhydrated patients (incident rate ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.38-1.70, P < 0.001). Hydration remained an independent predictor of peritonitis from enteric organisms when multivariate model included demographic parameters (odds ratio for a 1% increment of OH/ECW was 1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.10, P < 0.02). However, including biochemical parameters of malnutrition reduced the predictive power of overhydration. We found an association between overhydration and increased rates of peritonitis. While this may partly be due to the high co-morbidity of patients (advanced age and diabetes), on multivariate analysis, only inclusion of nutritional parameters reduced this association. It remains to be determined if overhydration will prove to be a modifiable risk factor for peritonitis or whether malnutrition will prove to be more important. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

A new molecular predictor of distant recurrence in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer adds independent information to conventional clinical risk factors.

PubMed

Filipits, Martin; Rudas, Margaretha; Jakesz, Raimund; Dubsky, Peter; Fitzal, Florian; Singer, Christian F; Dietze, Otto; Greil, Richard; Jelen, Andrea; Sevelda, Paul; Freibauer, Christa; Müller, Volkmar; Jänicke, Fritz; Schmidt, Marcus; Kölbl, Heinz; Rody, Achim; Kaufmann, Manfred; Schroth, Werner; Brauch, Hiltrud; Schwab, Matthias; Fritz, Peter; Weber, Karsten E; Feder, Inke S; Hennig, Guido; Kronenwett, Ralf; Gehrmann, Mathias; Gnant, Michael

2011-09-15

According to current guidelines, molecular tests predicting the outcome of breast cancer patients can be used to assist in making treatment decisions after consideration of conventional markers. We developed and validated a gene expression signature predicting the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy. RNA levels assessed by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue were used to calculate a risk score (Endopredict, EP) consisting of eight cancer-related and three reference genes. EP was combined with nodal status and tumor size into a comprehensive risk score, EPclin. Both prespecified risk scores including cutoff values to determine a risk group for each patient (low and high) were validated independently in patients from two large randomized phase III trials [Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group (ABCSG)-6: n = 378, ABCSG-8: n = 1,324]. In both validation cohorts, continuous EP was an independent predictor of distant recurrence in multivariate analysis (ABCSG-6: P = 0.010, ABCSG-8: P < 0.001). Combining Adjuvant!Online, quantitative ER, Ki67, and treatment with EP yielded a prognostic power significantly superior to the clinicopathologic factors alone [c-indices: 0.764 vs. 0.750, P = 0.024 (ABCSG-6) and 0.726 vs. 0.701, P = 0.003 (ABCSG-8)]. EPclin had c-indices of 0.788 and 0.732 and resulted in 10-year distant recurrence rates of 4% and 4% in EPclin low-risk and 28% and 22% in EPclin high-risk patients in ABCSG-6 (P < 0.001) and ABCSG-8 (P < 0.001), respectively. The multigene EP risk score provided additional prognostic information to the risk of distant recurrence of breast cancer patients, independent from clinicopathologic parameters. The EPclin score outperformed all conventional clinicopathologic risk factors. ©2011 AACR.

A new market risk model for cogeneration project financing---combined heat and power development without a power purchase agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, Timothy A.

Federal legislative changes in 2006 no longer entitle cogeneration project financings by law to receive the benefit of a power purchase agreement underwritten by an investment-grade investor-owned utility. Consequently, this research explored the need for a new market-risk model for future cogeneration and combined heat and power (CHP) project financing. CHP project investment represents a potentially enormous energy efficiency benefit through its application by reducing fossil fuel use up to 55% when compared to traditional energy generation, and concurrently eliminates constituent air emissions up to 50%, including global warming gases. As a supplemental approach to a comprehensive technical analysis, a quantitative multivariate modeling was also used to test the statistical validity and reliability of host facility energy demand and CHP supply ratios in predicting the economic performance of CHP project financing. The resulting analytical models, although not statistically reliable at this time, suggest a radically simplified CHP design method for future profitable CHP investments using four easily attainable energy ratios. This design method shows that financially successful CHP adoption occurs when the average system heat-to-power-ratio supply is less than or equal to the average host-convertible-energy-ratio, and when the average nominally-rated capacity is less than average host facility-load-factor demands. New CHP investments can play a role in solving the world-wide problem of accommodating growing energy demand while preserving our precious and irreplaceable air quality for future generations.

Risk as a social phenomenon.

PubMed

Jamison, Wesley V

2003-01-01

What do nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef have in common? The answer is multifaceted. They all share aspects of mass production and consumption, and therefore consumer confidence comes into play in evaluating each of the products' merits. They all produce some level of anxiety--be it in response to adverse media coverage, or the successes of adversarial interest groups in publicizing those products' weaknesses--among consumers who wonder what if any level of the product should be consumed. Finally, nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef all share risk; that is, the perceived and real detriments of producing and consuming those products. Whether or not the associated risks--from increased cancer to increased heart disease--are real is beside the point. When talking about risk, scientific education must deal with the perception of risk as much as its reality. Risk is a socially defined phenomenon, and as such, the successful scientists/communicator must understand the social evaluations of it. While many scientists take a rational view of risk evaluation and consumers often make rational decisions about technological and scientific risk based upon the costs and benefits of that technology, this approach is problematic for three reasons. First, the nature of modern risks has changed in that risk is complex, incomprehensible and uncontrollable to the average person. Second, the rational approach assumes that all costs and benefits of a technology, both real and potential, both current and future, can be known and therefore rationally evaluated. This is not the case. Third, evidence from Europe indicates that trust in information sources about risk has fallen, and thus classic scientific education campaigns that rely upon increasing public knowledge and acceptance of technological and scientific risk are problematic. Because of these factors we argue that effective scientific response must begin to understand the social components of risk if campaigns to shape public perception are to have any success. The report concludes that public perceptions concerning risk are driven more by social and moral debates than by scientific or economic debates (340 words).

An analysis of seismic risk from a tourism point of view.

PubMed

Mäntyniemi, Päivi

2012-07-01

Global awareness of natural calamities increased after the destructive Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004, largely because many foreigners lost their lives, especially in Thailand. This paper explores how best to communicate the seismic risk posed by different travel destinations to crisis management personnel in tourists' home countries. The analysis of seismic risk should be straightforward enough for non-specialists, yet powerful enough to identify the travel destinations that are most at risk. The output for each location is a point in 3D space composed of the natural and built-up environment and local tourism. The tourism-specific factors can be tailored according to the tourists' nationality. The necessary information can be collected from various directories and statistics, much of it available over the Internet. The output helps to illustrate the overall seismic risk conditions of different travel destinations, allows for comparison across destinations, and identifies the places that are most at risk. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

Windows of Opportunity for Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Phelan, Suzanne

2016-11-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is linked with several acute maternal health risks and long-term development of type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and cardiovascular disease. Intrauterine exposure to GDM similarly increases offspring risk of early-life health complications and later disease. GDM recurrence is common, affecting 40 to 73% of women, and augments associated maternal/fetal/child health risks. Modifiable and independent risk factors for GDM include maternal excessive gestational weight gain and prepregnancy overweight and obesity. Lifestyle interventions that target diet, activity, and behavioral strategies can effectively modify body weight. Randomized clinical trials testing the effects of lifestyle interventions during pregnancy to reduce excessive gestational weight gain have generally shown mixed effects on reducing GDM incidence. Trials testing the effects of postpartum lifestyle interventions among women with a history of GDM have shown reduced incidence of diabetes and improved cardiovascular disease risk factors. However, the long-term effects of interpregnancy or prepregnancy lifestyle interventions on subsequent GDM remain unknown. Future adequately powered and well-controlled clinical trials are needed to determine the effects of lifestyle interventions to prevent GDM and identify pathways to effectively reach reproductive-aged women across all levels of society, before, during, and after pregnancy. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

HIV Risk and Perceptions of Masculinity among Young Black MSM

PubMed Central

Fields, Errol L.; Bogart, Laura M.; Smith, Katherine C.; Malebranche, David J.; Ellen, Jonathan; Schuster, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Purpose Young Black men who have sex with men (MSM) have among the highest rates of HIV infection in the US. Although reported rates of unprotected anal intercourse are similar to MSM of other racial/ethnic backgrounds, young Black MSM (YBMSM) aged 15–22 are 5 times more likely than comparably aged white MSM to be HIV-infected. We explored contextual social-environmental factors that may influence how YBMSM assess risk, choose partners, and make decisions about condom use. Methods We analyzed semi-structured interviews with 35 YBMSM (18–24) in New York City, upstate NY, and Atlanta. We used structured analytic coding based on a theoretical scheme that emerged from the data. Results Perception of masculinity was the primary contextual factor influencing partner selection, risk assessment, and condom decision-making. Four primary themes emerged: 1) greater preference for partners perceived as masculine; 2) discomfort with allowing men perceived as feminine to be the insertive partner in anal intercourse; 3) a power dynamic such that partners perceived as more masculine made condom-use decisions within the dyad; and 4) use of potential partners’ perceived masculinity to assess HIV risk. Conclusions Perceived masculinity may play a significant role in HIV risk for YBMSM and may be an important concept to consider in prevention strategies directed towards this population. PMID:22325136

Erectile dysfunction and lower urinary tract symptoms: a consensus on the importance of co-diagnosis

PubMed Central

Kirby, M; Chapple, C; Jackson, G; Eardley, I; Edwards, D; Hackett, G; Ralph, D; Rees, J; Speakman, M; Spinks, J; Wylie, K

2013-01-01

Despite differences in design, many large epidemiological studies using well-powered multivariate analyses consistently provide overwhelming evidence of a link between erectile dysfunction (ED) and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). Preclinical evidence suggests that several common pathophysiological mechanisms are involved in the development of both ED and LUTS. We recommend that patients seeking consultation for one condition should always be screened for the other condition. We propose that co-diagnosis would ensure that patient management accounts for all possible co-morbid and associated conditions. Medical, socio-demographic and lifestyle risk factors can help to inform diagnoses and should be taken into consideration during the initial consultation. Awareness of risk factors may alert physicians to patients at risk of ED or LUTS and so allow them to manage patients accordingly; early diagnosis of ED in patients with LUTS, for example, could help reduce the risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease. Prescribing physicians should be aware of the sexual adverse effects of many treatments currently recommended for LUTS; sexual function should be evaluated prior to commencement of treatment, and monitored throughout treatment to ensure that the choice of drug is appropriate. PMID:23617950

Extracting dirt from water: a strengths-based approach to religion for African American same-gender-loving men.

PubMed

Lassiter, Jonathan Mathias

2014-02-01

Religion is one of the most powerful and ubiquitous forces in African American same-gender-loving (SGL) men's lives. Research indicates that it has both positive and negative influences on the health behaviors and outcomes of this population. This paper presents a review of the literature that examines religion as a risk and protective factor for African American SGL men. A strengths-based approach to religion that aims to utilize its protective qualities and weaken its relation to risk is proposed. Finally, recommendations are presented for the use of a strengths-based approach to religion in clinical work and research.

Do genetic variations alter the effects of exercise training on cardiovascular disease and can we identify the candidate variants now or in the future?

PubMed

Hagberg, James M

2011-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors are highly heritable, and numerous lines of evidence indicate they have a strong genetic basis. While there is nothing known about the interactive effects of genetics and exercise training on CVD itself, there is at least some literature addressing their interactive effect on CVD risk factors. There is some evidence indicating that CVD risk factor responses to exercise training are also heritable and, thus, may have a genetic basis. While roughly 100 studies have reported significant effects of genetic variants on CVD risk factor responses to exercise training, no definitive conclusions can be generated at the present time, because of the lack of consistent and replicated results and the small sample sizes evident in most studies. There is some evidence supporting "possible" candidate genes that may affect these responses to exercise training: APO E and CETP for plasma lipoprotein-lipid profiles; eNOS, ACE, EDN1, and GNB3 for blood pressure; PPARG for type 2 diabetes phenotypes; and FTO and BAR genes for obesity-related phenotypes. However, while genotyping technologies and statistical methods are advancing rapidly, the primary limitation in this field is the need to generate what in terms of exercise intervention studies would be almost incomprehensible sample sizes. Most recent diabetes, obesity, and blood pressure genetic studies have utilized populations of 10,000-250,000 subjects, which result in the necessary statistical power to detect the magnitude of effects that would probably be expected for the impact of an individual gene on CVD risk factor responses to exercise training. Thus at this time it is difficult to see how this field will advance in the future to the point where robust, consistent, and replicated data are available to address these issues. However, the results of recent large-scale genomewide association studies for baseline CVD risk factors may drive future hypothesis-driven exercise training intervention studies in smaller populations addressing the impact of specific genetic variants on well-defined physiological phenotypes.

A statistical framework to model the meeting-in-the-middle principle using metabolomic data: application to hepatocellular carcinoma in the EPIC study

PubMed Central

Assi, Nada; Fages, Anne; Vineis, Paolo; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Stepien, Magdalena; Duarte-Salles, Talita; Byrnes, Graham; Boumaza, Houda; Knüppel, Sven; Kühn, Tilman; Palli, Domenico; Bamia, Christina; Boshuizen, Hendriek; Bonet, Catalina; Overvad, Kim; Johansson, Mattias; Travis, Ruth; Gunter, Marc J.; Lund, Eiliv; Dossus, Laure; Elena-Herrmann, Bénédicte; Riboli, Elio; Jenab, Mazda; Viallon, Vivian; Ferrari, Pietro

2015-01-01

Abstract Metabolomics is a potentially powerful tool for identification of biomarkers associated with lifestyle exposures and risk of various diseases. This is the rationale of the ‘meeting-in-the-middle’ concept, for which an analytical framework was developed in this study. In a nested case–control study on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC), serum 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra (800 MHz) were acquired for 114 cases and 222 matched controls. Through partial least square (PLS) analysis, 21 lifestyle variables (the ‘predictors’, including information on diet, anthropometry and clinical characteristics) were linked to a set of 285 metabolic variables (the ‘responses’). The three resulting scores were related to HCC risk by means of conditional logistic regressions. The first PLS factor was not associated with HCC risk. The second PLS metabolomic factor was positively associated with tyrosine and glucose, and was related to a significantly increased HCC risk with OR = 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.22, P = 0.02) for a 1SD change in the responses score, and a similar association was found for the corresponding lifestyle component of the factor. The third PLS lifestyle factor was associated with lifetime alcohol consumption, hepatitis and smoking, and had negative loadings on vegetables intake. Its metabolomic counterpart displayed positive loadings on ethanol, glutamate and phenylalanine. These factors were positively and statistically significantly associated with HCC risk, with 1.37 (1.05, 1.79, P = 0.02) and 1.22 (1.04, 1.44, P = 0.01), respectively. Evidence of mediation was found in both the second and third PLS factors, where the metabolomic signals mediated the relation between the lifestyle component and HCC outcome. This study devised a way to bridge lifestyle variables to HCC risk through NMR metabolomics data. This implementation of the ‘meeting-in-the-middle’ approach finds natural applications in settings characterised by high-dimensional data, increasingly frequent in the omics generation. PMID:26130468

Marketing environment dynamics and implications for pricing strategies: the case of home health care.

PubMed

Ponsford, B J; Barlow, D

1999-01-01

This research reviews the factors affecting the pricing or rate schedules of home health care agencies. A large number of factors affect costs and thus rate structures. The major factors include reimbursement structures with accompanying discount structures, administrative burdens, and risks. Channel issues include bargaining power, competition, and size. Staffing issues affect pricing and product through the provider level, productivity, and quality outcomes. Physician and patient issues include quality concerns and choices. These factors are discussed in light of overall marketing strategy and the interaction of pricing with other marketing controllables such as product, place/distribution, and promotion. Economic and accounting principles are also reviewed with consideration to understanding direct and indirect costs in order to enable negotiators to effectively price health care services.

Personality and mortality after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Denollet, J; Sys, S U; Brutsaert, D L

1995-01-01

Previous research showed: a) emotional distress is a risk factor for mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) and b) emotional distress is linked to stable personality traits. In this study, we examined the role of these personality traits in mortality after MI. Subjects were 105 men, 45 to 60 years of age, who survived a recent MI. Baseline assessment included biomedical and psychosocial risk factors, as well as each patient's personality type. After 2 to 5 (mean, 3.8) years of follow-up, 15 patients (14%) had died. Rate of death for patients with a distressed personality type (11/28 = 39%) was significantly greater than that for patients with other personality types (4/77 = 5%) (p < .0001). Patients with this personality type tend simultaneously to experience distress and inhibit expression of emotions. Low exercise tolerance, previous MI (p < .005), anterior MI, smoking, and age (p < .05) were also associated with mortality. A logistic regression model including these biomedical factors had a sensitivity for mortality of only 27%. The addition of distressed personality type in this model more than doubled its sensitivity. Of note, among patients with poor physical health, those with a distressed personality type had a five-fold mortality risk (p < .005). Consistent with the findings of other investigators, depression (p < .005), life stress, use of benzodiazepines (p < .01), and somatization (p < .05) were also related to post-MI mortality. These psychosocial risk factors were more prevalent in the distressed personality type than in the other personality types (p < .001-.05). Multiple logistic regression indicated that these psychosocial factors did not add to the predictive value of the distressed personality type. Hence, an important personality effect was observed despite the low power. This suggests that personality traits may play a role in the detrimental effect of emotional distress in MI patients.

Examining relationships of intimate partner violence and food insecurity with HIV-related risk factors among young pregnant Liberian women.

PubMed

Willie, Tiara C; Kershaw, Trace S; Callands, Tamora A

2018-04-22

Gender inequities place women at an increased risk for HIV acquisition, and this association may particularly disenfranchize young pregnant women. Intimate partner violence (IPV) and food insecurity may contribute to gender differences in power, thereby influencing HIV disparities between women and men. Factors influencing gender disparities in HIV are unique and country-specific within sub-Saharan Africa, yet these factors are understudied among women in Liberia. This paper sought to examine the unique contributions and intersections of intimate partner violence (IPV) and food insecurity with HIV-related risk factors among young pregnant women in Liberia. Between March 2016 and August 2016, cross-sectional data collected from 195 women aged 18-30, residing in Monrovia, Liberia who were receiving prenatal services were used to examine the independent and interaction effects of IPV and food insecurity on HIV-related risk factors (i.e., sexual partner concurrency, economically-motivated relationships). IPV (31.3%) and food insecurity (47.7%) were prevalent. Young women who experience IPV are more likely to report food insecurity (p < 0.05). Young women who experienced IPV and food insecurity were more likely to start a new relationship for economic support (ps < 0.05). Young women who experience IPV and food insecurity were more likely to report engaging in transactional sex (ps < 0.05). There were no significant interaction effects between IPV and food insecurity (ps > 0.05). IPV and food insecurity each uniquely heighten young Liberian women's vulnerability to HIV. Intervention and policy efforts are need to promote and empower women's sexual health through integrated sexual and reproductive health services, and reduce IPV and food insecurity among pregnant Liberian women.

The application of multilevel modeling in the analysis of longitudinal periodontal data--part I: absolute levels of disease.

PubMed

Tu, Yu-Kang; Gilthorpe, Mark S; Griffiths, Gareth S; Maddick, Ian H; Eaton, Kenneth A; Johnson, Newell W

2004-01-01

Statistical analyses of periodontal data that average site measurements to subject mean values are unable to explore the site-specific nature of periodontal diseases. Multilevel modeling (MLM) overcomes this, taking hierarchical structure into account. MLM was used to investigate longitudinal relationships between the outcomes of lifetime cumulative attachment loss (LCAL) and probing depth (PD) in relation to potential risk factors for periodontal disease progression. One hundred males (mean age 17 years) received a comprehensive periodontal examination at baseline and at 12 and 30 months. The resulting data were analyzed in two stages. In stage one (reported here), the absolute levels of disease were analyzed in relation to potential risk factors; in stage two (reported in a second paper), changes in disease patterns over time were analyzed in relation to the same risk factors. Each approach yielded substantially different insights. For absolute levels of disease, subject-level risk factors (covariates) had limited prediction for LCAL/PD throughout the 30-month observation period. Tooth position demonstrated a near linear relationship for both outcomes, with disease increasing from anterior to posterior teeth. Sites with subgingival calculus and bleeding on probing demonstrated more LCAL and PD, and supragingival calculus had an apparently protective effect. Covariates had more "explanatory power" for the variation in PD than for the variation in LCAL, suggesting that LCAL and PD might be generally associated with a different profile of covariates. This study provides, for a relatively young cohort, considerable insights into the factors associated with early-life periodontal disease and its progression at all levels of the natural hierarchy of sites within teeth within subjects.

Identifying influential directors in the United States corporate governance network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xuqing; Vodenska, Irena; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-10-01

The influence of directors has been one of the most engaging topics recently, but surprisingly little research has been done to quantitatively evaluate the influence and power of directors. We analyze the structure of the US corporate governance network for the 11-year period 1996-2006 based on director data from the Investor Responsibility Research Center director database, and we develop a centrality measure named the influence factor to estimate the influence of directors quantitatively. The US corporate governance network is a network of directors with nodes representing directors and links between two directors representing their service on common company boards. We assume that information flows in the network through information-sharing processes among linked directors. The influence factor assigned to a director is based on the level of information that a director obtains from the entire network. We find that, contrary to commonly accepted belief that directors of large companies, measured by market capitalization, are the most powerful, in some instances, the directors who are influential do not necessarily serve on boards of large companies. By applying our influence factor method to identify the influential people contained in the lists created by popular magazines such as Fortune, Networking World, and Treasury and Risk Management, we find that the influence factor method is consistently either the best or one of the two best methods in identifying powerful people compared to other general centrality measures that are used to denote the significance of a node in complex network theory.

Identifying influential directors in the United States corporate governance network.

PubMed

Huang, Xuqing; Vodenska, Irena; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

2011-10-01

The influence of directors has been one of the most engaging topics recently, but surprisingly little research has been done to quantitatively evaluate the influence and power of directors. We analyze the structure of the US corporate governance network for the 11-year period 1996-2006 based on director data from the Investor Responsibility Research Center director database, and we develop a centrality measure named the influence factor to estimate the influence of directors quantitatively. The US corporate governance network is a network of directors with nodes representing directors and links between two directors representing their service on common company boards. We assume that information flows in the network through information-sharing processes among linked directors. The influence factor assigned to a director is based on the level of information that a director obtains from the entire network. We find that, contrary to commonly accepted belief that directors of large companies, measured by market capitalization, are the most powerful, in some instances, the directors who are influential do not necessarily serve on boards of large companies. By applying our influence factor method to identify the influential people contained in the lists created by popular magazines such as Fortune, Networking World, and Treasury and Risk Management, we find that the influence factor method is consistently either the best or one of the two best methods in identifying powerful people compared to other general centrality measures that are used to denote the significance of a node in complex network theory.

Power factor improvement in three-phase networks with unbalanced inductive loads using the Roederstein ESTAmat RPR power factor controller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diniş, C. M.; Cunţan, C. D.; Rob, R. O. S.; Popa, G. N.

2018-01-01

The paper presents the analysis of a power factor with capacitors banks, without series coils, used for improving power factor for a three-phase and single-phase inductive loads. In the experimental measurements, to improve the power factor, the Roederstein ESTAmat RPR power factor controller can command up to twelve capacitors banks, while experimenting using only six capacitors banks. Six delta capacitors banks with approximately equal reactive powers were used for experimentation. The experimental measurements were carried out with a three-phase power quality analyser which worked in three cases: a case without a controller with all capacitors banks permanently parallel connected with network, and two other cases with power factor controller (one with setting power factor at 0.92 and the other one at 1). When performing experiments with the power factor controller, a current transformer was used to measure the current on one phase (at a more charged or less loaded phase).

Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

2010-09-01

Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models are using a number of weather parameters like wind speed in different heights, friction velocity and DTHV. The 25 wind sites are scattered around in Europe and contains 4 offshore parks and 21 onshore parks in various terrain complexity. The "day a head" forecasts are compared with production data and predictability for the period February 2010-April 2010 are given in Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE). The power predictability results are mapped for each turbine giving a clear picture of the predictability in Europe. . Finally a economic analysis are shown for each wind parks in different regimes of predictability will be compared with regard to the balance costs that result from errors in the wind power prediction. Analysis shows that it may very well be profitable to place wind parks in regions of lower, but more predictable wind ressource. Authors: Ivan Ristic, CTO Weather2Umberlla D.O.O Tomislav Maric, Meteorologist at Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Line Gulstad, Manager Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Jesper Thiesen, CEO ConWx ApS

Sexual Relationship Power and Depression among HIV-Infected Women in Rural Uganda

PubMed Central

Hatcher, Abigail M.; Tsai, Alexander C.; Kumbakumba, Elias; Dworkin, Shari L.; Hunt, Peter W.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Clark, Gina; Bangsberg, David R.; Weiser, Sheri D.

2012-01-01

Background Depression is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, increased morbidity, and higher risk of HIV-related death among HIV-infected women. Low sexual relationship power also contributes to HIV risk, but there is limited understanding of how it relates to mental health among HIV-infected women. Methods Participants were 270 HIV-infected women from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary predictor was baseline sexual relationship power as measured by the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS). The primary outcome was depression severity, measured with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL), and a secondary outcome was a functional scale for mental health status (MHS). Adjusted models controlled for socio-demographic factors, CD4 count, alcohol and tobacco use, baseline WHO stage 4 disease, social support, and duration of ART. Results The mean HSCL score was 1.34 and 23.7% of participants had HSCL scores consistent with probable depression (HSCL>1.75). Compared to participants with low SRPS scores, individuals with both moderate (coefficient b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.07) and high power (b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.06) reported decreased depressive symptomology. High SRPS scores halved the likelihood of women meeting criteria for probable depression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44; 95%CI, 0.20 to 0.93). In lagged models, low SRPS predicted subsequent depression severity, but depression did not predict subsequent changes in SPRS. Results were similar for MHS, with lagged models showing SRPS predicts subsequent mental health, but not visa versa. Both Decision-Making Dominance and Relationship Control subscales of SRPS were associated with depression symptom severity. Conclusions HIV-infected women with high sexual relationship power had lower depression and higher mental health status than women with low power. Interventions to improve equity in decision-making and control within dyadic partnerships are critical to prevent HIV transmission and to optimize mental health of HIV-infected women. PMID:23300519

Identifying children at risk for type 2 diabetes in underserved communities.

PubMed

Vivian, Eva M; Carrel, Aaron L; Becker, Tara

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and assess health behaviors among ethnic minority children at high risk for type 2 diabetes. Diabetes screenings were conducted at community centers, churches, and local neighborhood health fairs in Madison, Wisconsin. During these events, diabetes risk assessment surveys were given to parents of children between the ages of 10 to 19 years. Parents who identified their children as having 2 or more risk factors for type 2 diabetes were invited to have their child screened for type 2 diabetes. A total of 86 children between the ages of 10 to 19 years (mean age = 13; 58% male) were screened for diabetes. Fifty-one percent of the children were overweight or obese with 38% having >3 risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there was no significant difference in the nutritional habits reported between normal, overweight, or obese children, fewer overweight and obese children reported exercising at least 30 minutes 5 to 7 days a week compared to children with a normal weight (P = .033). Prevention of diabetes is a powerful public health intervention. Targeted diabetes screening in disadvantaged, underserved communities is an effective way to identify families with children at risk for type 2 diabetes. In addition, information obtained from these screenings can assist researchers and clinicians in designing accessible and affordable health promotion interventions that are culturally relevant to the youth and families within the community.

Intimate Partner Violence among Female Sex Workers in Two Mexico-U.S. Border Cities: Partner Characteristics and HIV Risk-behaviors as Correlates of Abuse.

PubMed

Ulibarri, Monica D; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Lozada, Remedios; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Amaro, Hortensia; O'Campo, Patricia; Patterson, Thomas L

2010-12-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with greater vulnerability to HIV infection among women. We examined prevalence and correlates of IPV among female sex workers (FSWs) in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez, two large Mexico-U.S. border cities where HIV prevalence is rising. Participants were 300 FSWs with a current spouse or a steady partner. Participants' mean age was 33 years, and mean number of years as a sex worker was 6 years. The prevalence of IPV in the past 6 months among participants was 35%. Using multivariate logistic regression, factors independently associated with IPV included having experienced abuse as a child, a partner who had sex with someone else, and lower sexual relationship power. Our findings suggest the need for previous abuse screening and violence prevention services for FSWs in the Mexico-U.S. border region. Careful consideration of relationship dynamics such as infidelity and relationship power is warranted when assessing for IPV risk.

Intimate Partner Violence among Female Sex Workers in Two Mexico-U.S. Border Cities: Partner Characteristics and HIV Risk-behaviors as Correlates of Abuse

PubMed Central

Ulibarri, Monica D.; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Lozada, Remedios; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Amaro, Hortensia; O’Campo, Patricia; Patterson, Thomas L.

2009-01-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with greater vulnerability to HIV infection among women. We examined prevalence and correlates of IPV among female sex workers (FSWs) in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez, two large Mexico-U.S. border cities where HIV prevalence is rising. Participants were 300 FSWs with a current spouse or a steady partner. Participants’ mean age was 33 years, and mean number of years as a sex worker was 6 years. The prevalence of IPV in the past 6 months among participants was 35%. Using multivariate logistic regression, factors independently associated with IPV included having experienced abuse as a child, a partner who had sex with someone else, and lower sexual relationship power. Our findings suggest the need for previous abuse screening and violence prevention services for FSWs in the Mexico-U.S. border region. Careful consideration of relationship dynamics such as infidelity and relationship power is warranted when assessing for IPV risk. PMID:21532933

Bullying and Victimization Among Children

PubMed Central

Shetgiri, Rashmi

2013-01-01

Bullying among children is a significant public health problem world-wide. Bullying is most commonly defined as repeated, intentional aggression, perpetrated by a more powerful individual or group against a less powerful victim. Trends in victimization and moderate to frequent bullying may be decreasing slightly in the United States, but over 20% of children continue to be involved in bullying. Direct bullying consists of physical and verbal aggression, whereas indirect bullying involves relational aggression. Cyber bullying is an emerging problem which may be more difficult to identify and intervene with than traditional bullying. Bullies, victims, and bully-victims are at risk for negative short and long-term consequences such as depression, anxiety, low self-esteem, and delinquency. Various individual, parental, and peer factors increase the risk for involvement in bullying. Anti-bullying interventions are predominantly school-based and demonstrate variable results. Healthcare providers can intervene in bullying by identifying potential bullies or victims, screening them for co-morbidities, providing counseling and resources, and advocating for bullying prevention. PMID:24007839

The development and appraisal of a tool designed to find patients harmed by falsely labelled, falsified (counterfeit) medicines.

PubMed

Anđelković, Marija; Björnsson, Einar; De Bono, Virgilio; Dikić, Nenad; Devue, Katleen; Ferlin, Daniel; Hanževački, Miroslav; Jónsdóttir, Freyja; Shakaryan, Mkrtich; Walser, Sabine

2017-06-20

Falsely labelled, falsified (counterfeit) medicines (FFCm's) are produced or distributed illegally and can harm patients. Although the occurrence of FFCm's is increasing in Europe, harm is rarely reported. The European Directorate for the Quality of Medicines & Health-Care (EDQM) has therefore coordinated the development and validation of a screening tool. The tool consists of a questionnaire referring to a watch-list of FFCm's identified in Europe, including symptoms of their use and individual risk factors, and a scoring form. To refine the questionnaire and reference method, a pilot-study was performed in 105 self-reported users of watch-list medicines. Subsequently, the tool was validated under "real-life conditions" in 371 patients in 5 ambulatory and in-patient care sites ("sub-studies"). The physicians participating in the study scored the patients and classified their risk of harm as "unlikely" or "probable" (cut-off level: presence of ≥2 of 5 risk factors). They assessed all medical records retrospectively (independent reference method) to validate the risk classification and documented their perception of the tool's value. In 3 ambulatory care sites (180 patients), the tool correctly classified 5 patients as harmed by FFCm's. The positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+/LR-) and the discrimination power were calculated for two cut-off levels: a) 1 site (50 patients): presence of two risk factors (at 10% estimated health care system contamination with FFCm's): LR + 4.9/LR-0, post-test probability: 35%; b) 2 sites (130 patients): presence of three risk factors (at 5% estimated prevalence of use of non-prescribed medicines (FFCm's) by certain risk groups): LR + 9.7/LR-0, post-test probability: 33%. In 2 in-patient care sites (191 patients), no patient was confirmed as harmed by FFCm's. The physicians perceived the tool as valuable for finding harm, and as an information source regarding risk factors. This "decision aid" is a systematic tool which helps find in medical practice patients harmed by FFCm's. This study supports its value in ambulatory care in regions with health care system contamination and in certain risk groups. The establishment of systematic communication between authorities and the medical community concerning FFCm's, current patterns of use and case reports may sustain positive public health impacts.

Predictors of heart failure in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a PEACE study.

PubMed

Lewis, Eldrin F; Solomon, Scott D; Jablonski, Kathleen A; Rice, Madeline Murguia; Clemenza, Francesco; Hsia, Judith; Maggioni, Aldo P; Zabalgoitia, Miguel; Huynh, Thao; Cuddy, Thomas E; Gersh, Bernard J; Rouleau, Jean; Braunwald, Eugene; Pfeffer, Marc A

2009-05-01

Heart failure (HF) is a disease commonly associated with coronary artery disease. Most risk models for HF development have focused on patients with acute myocardial infarction. The Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition population enabled the development of a risk model to predict HF in patients with stable coronary artery disease and preserved ejection fraction. In the 8290, Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition patients without preexisting HF, new-onset HF hospitalizations, and fatal HF were assessed over a median follow-up of 4.8 years. Covariates were evaluated and maintained in the Cox regression multivariable model using backward selection if P<0.05. A risk score was developed and converted to an integer-based scoring system. Among the Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition population (age, 64+/-8; female, 18%; prior myocardial infarction, 55%), there were 268 cases of fatal and nonfatal HF. Twelve characteristics were associated with increased risk of HF along with several baseline medications, including older age, history of hypertension, and diabetes. Randomization to trandolapril independently reduced the risk of HF. There was no interaction between trandolapril treatment and other risk factors for HF. The risk score (range, 0 to 21) demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (c-statistic 0.80). Risk of HF ranged from 1.75% in patients with a risk score of 0% to 33% in patients with risk score >or=16. Among patients with stable coronary artery disease and preserved ejection fraction, traditional and newer factors were independently associated with increased risk of HF. Trandolopril decreased the risk of HF in these patients with preserved ejection fraction.

The Local Tissue Environment During the September 29, 1989 Solar Particle Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, M.-H. Y.; Wilson, J. W.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Simonsen, L. C.; Atwell, W.; Badavi, F. F.; Miller, J.

2004-01-01

The solar particle event (SPE) of September 29, 1989, produced an iron-rich spectrum with energies approaching 1 GeV/amu with an energy power index of 2.5. These high charge and energy (HZE) ions of the iron-rich SPEs challenge conventional methods of SPE shield design and assessment of astronaut risks. Shield and risk assessments are evaluated using the HZETRN code with computerized anatomical man (CAM) model for astronaut s body tissues. Since the HZE spectra decline rapidly with energy and HZE attenuation in materials is limited by their penetration power, details of the mass distributions about the sensitive tissues (shielding materials and the astronaut's body) are important determining factors of the exposure levels. Typical space suit and lightly shielded structures allow significant contributions from HZE components to some critical body tissues and have important implications on the models for risk assessment. Only a heavily shielded equipment room of a space vehicle or habitat provides sufficient shielding for the early response at sensitive organs from this event. The February 23, 1956 event of similar spectral characteristics and ten times this event may have important medical consequences without a well-shielded region.

Finding Uncertainties that Cause the Age Dependence of Dose Limits to Be Immature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

Space radiation permissible exposure limits (PEL) are intended to set acceptable levels of cancer risks, and avoid any clinical significant non-cancer effects. The 1989 recommendation of the National Council of Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) recommended a strong age dependence of dose limits that departed drastically from the then mature 1970 dose limits recommendations from the National Academy of Science, which were independent of age. In 2000, the NCRP recommended revised limits that showed a similar trend of risk with age to the 1989 report. In this model, the cancer risk per Sv varies by more than 2-fold for ages between 30- and 50-yr. Therefore for galactic cosmic rays exposure, astronaut age has a larger influence on risk then radiation shielding mass or material composition, vehicle propulsion method, or position in the solar cycle. For considering the control of mission costs and resources, the possibility of using astronaut age as a trade variable in mission design could be considered. However, the uncertainties in describing the age dependence on risk have not been fully explored. We discuss biological factors that influence the age dependence of radiation risks, including susceptibility, expression and latency, and radiation quality. These factors depend not only on the individual s age, but also their genetic sensitivity and interaction with other environmental factors. Epidemiological data is limited in describing the age dependence on risk. The 2005, BEIR VII report recommends an age dependence for cancer risk attributable solely to the life-table disagreeing strongly with the NCRP model. However, BEIR VII also noted the limited power of human data for concomitantly describing both age and age after exposure dependences of cancer risks. Many experimental studies have shown that high LET radiation (e.g., high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei and neutrons) display reduced latency compared to low LET radiation, suggesting distinct biological factors are important. We discuss potential molecular mechanisms that would influence the age dependence of radiation risks. A probability distribution function for the uncertainties in age-dependence of risk models is described and predictions for Mars missions discussed. Our report suggests that theoretical considerations based on new experimental studies are needed to ensure the correct age dependence in space radiation risk models and the resulting Astronaut PEL.

Family influences on the development of aggression and violence.

PubMed

Labella, Madelyn H; Masten, Ann S

2018-02-01

Recent research confirms that many of the most salient risk and protective factors for the development of aggression and violence reside in the family system. Family-based risks begin before birth, encompassing genetic and epigenetic processes. Contextual stressors (e.g., poverty, conflict) may impact development directly or indirectly through disrupted parenting behavior, including high negativity, low warmth, harshness, and exposure to violence. The family can also serve as a powerful adaptive system counteracting the risk of aggression and violence. Parents can promote healthy behavioral development through warmth, structure, and prosocial values, as well as by fostering adaptive resources in the child and community. Successful interventions often reduce aggression and violence by supporting parents and families. Recent insights and future directions for research and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Examination of the risk factors associated with injured recreational padel players in Spain.

PubMed

Priego Quesada, Jose I; Sanchís Almenara, Mercedes; Kerr, Zachary Y; Alcantara, Enrique

2018-01-01

Padel is a relatively new sport, with steady participation increases over the past 50 years. However, there is a need for data examining injury and associated risk factors. The study examined how intrinsic (e.g. age and sex) and extrinsic factors (e.g. padel participation and equipment) were associated with injury in recreational padel players. A self-administered questionnaire completed by 80 recreational padel players between September 2014 and March 2015 acquired data on: respondent demographics and padel-related activities; the number of injuries within the past year; characteristics of the last injury sustained; and extrinsic factors including respondents' evaluations of equipment (e.g., racquet control/power, footwear cushioning, flexibility, traction). χ2 tests compared the proportion of respondents reporting injuries in the past year among those reporting and not reporting equipment-related issues. Most respondents were male (57.5%), aged 30-40 years (46.3%), and played more than 2 padel sessions/week (48.8%). Overall, 40.0% reported sustaining at least one injury during the past year. Sex, age, frequency of padel sessions/week, and years of padel experience were not associated with the reporting of injury within the past year (P>0.05). The proportion of padel players reporting injuries in the past year was greater among those that wore padel-specific footwear than those that wore another kind of sports footwear (50.0% vs. 23.3%; P=0.02). Recreational padel players wearing padel-specific footwear were more at risk for injury than those not. Our findings highlight the need for additional research regarding injury risk and footwear.

Pregnancy intentions and teenage pregnancy among Latinas: a mediation analysis.

PubMed

Rocca, Corinne H; Doherty, Irene; Padian, Nancy S; Hubbard, Alan E; Minnis, Alexandra M

2010-09-01

The extent to which pregnancy intentions mediate the relationship between individual, familial and cultural characteristics and adolescent pregnancy is not well understood. The role of intentions may be particularly important among Latina teenagers, whose attitudes toward pregnancy are more favorable than those of other groups and whose pregnancy rates are high. Prospective, time-varying data from 2001-2004 were used to investigate whether two measures of pregnancy intentions, wantedness and happiness, mediated associations between risk factors and pregnancy among 213 Latina adolescents in San Francisco. Participants were tested for pregnancy and interviewed about pregnancy intentions, partnerships, family characteristics and activities every six months for two years. Associations and mediation were examined using logistic regression. Neither pregnancy intention variable mediated relationships between participant characteristics and pregnancy. After adjustment for other measures, wantedness was strongly associated with pregnancy (odds ratio, 2.6), while happiness was not. Having a strong family orientation was associated with happiness (3.7) but unrelated to pregnancy. Low power in a sexual relationship with a main partner was associated with an elevated risk of pregnancy (3.3). If the pregnancy intentions of all participants were changed to definitely not wanting pregnancy, the estimated decline in pregnancy risk would be 16%. Pregnancy intentions were important not as mediators but rather as independent risk factors for pregnancy. Differences in pregnancy rates between groups of Latinas may be less a function of intentional choice than of situational factors. Interventions and research should focus on identifying and targeting factors that hinder effective contraceptive use among teenagers who want to avoid pregnancy. Copyright © 2010 by the Guttmacher Institute.

Pregnancy Intentions and Teenage Pregnancy Among Latinas: A Mediation Analysis

PubMed Central

Rocca, Corinne H.; Doherty, Irene; Padian, Nancy S.; Hubbard, Alan E.; Minnis, Alexandra M.

2010-01-01

CONTEXT The extent to which pregnancy intentions mediate the relationship between individual, familial and cultural characteristics and adolescent pregnancy is not well understood. The role of intentions may be particularly important among Latina teenagers, whose attitudes toward pregnancy are more favorable than those of other groups and whose pregnancy rates are high. METHODS Prospective, time-varying data from 2001–2004 were used to investigate whether two measures of pregnancy intentions, wantedness and happiness, mediated associations between risk factors and pregnancy among 213 Latina adolescents in San Francisco. Participants were tested for pregnancy and interviewed about pregnancy intentions, partnerships, family characteristics and activities every six months for two years. Associations and mediation were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS Neither pregnancy intention variable mediated relationships between participant characteristics and pregnancy. After adjustment for other measures, wantedness was strongly associated with pregnancy (odds ratio, 2.6), while happiness was not. Having a strong family orientation was associated with happiness (3.7) but unrelated to pregnancy. Low sexual relationship power with a main partner was associated with an elevated risk of pregnancy (3.3). If the pregnancy intentions of all participants were changed to definitely not wanting pregnancy, the estimated decline in pregnancy risk would be 16%. CONCLUSIONS Pregnancy intentions were important not as mediators but rather as independent risk factors for pregnancy. Differences in pregnancy rates between groups of Latinas may be less a function of intentional choice than of situational factors. Interventions and research should focus on identifying and targeting factors that hinder effective contraceptive use among teenagers who want to avoid pregnancy. PMID:20887287

Physical activity cut-offs and risk factors for preventing child obesity in Japan.

PubMed

Minematsu, Kazuo; Kawabuchi, Ryosuke; Okazaki, Hiromi; Tomita, Hiroyuki; Tobina, Takuro; Tanigawa, Takeshi; Tsunawake, Noriaki

2015-01-01

There is no official recommendations for physical activity level or steps for preventing and improving child obesity in Japan. Three hundred and two Japanese children aged 9-12 years were recruited wore 3-D speed sensors. Subjects were divided into two groups using the criteria for child obesity in Japan. Body composition was measured on bioelectrical impedance analysis. Physical fitness test was done to evaluate physical strength. Twenty-four hour total steps, energy expenditure, and metabolic equivalents (MET) from Monday to Sunday were consecutively measured. The cut-offs for steps and physical activity level for preventing child obesity were evaluated on receiver operating characteristic curves. Daily life-related risk factors for child obesity were assessed on logistic regression analysis. In both sexes, body volume; bodyweight, body mass index, fat mass, and percentage body fat in the obese group was significantly higher than in the normal group, but age and height were not different (P < 0.001). Aerobic power, running speed, and explosive strength in the obese group were inferior to those in the normal group (P < 0.001). More than 40 min of 4 MET exercise, defined as moderate-vigorous exercise, and 11,000 steps per day are essential to prevent child obesity. Additionally, >2 h TV viewing per day is a significant risk factor for child obesity (OR, 3.43; 95%CI: 1.27-9.31). Cut-offs for physical activity and potential risk factors for child obesity have been identified. Recommendations for changes to daily lifestyle for school-aged Japanese children are given. © 2014 Japan Pediatric Society.

Risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, S.C.

1995-12-01

For the safety of nuclear power plants, it is important to identify potential areas of vulnerabilities to internal as well as external events to which nuclear power plants are exposed. This paper summarizes the risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena such as earthquakes, winds and tornadoes, floods, etc. The reported results are based on a limited number of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) performed for a few of the operating nuclear power plants within the United States. The summary includes an importance ranking of various natural hazard phenomena based on their contribution to the plant risk alongmore » with insights observed from the PRA studies.« less

The Influence of Mechanical Parameters on Dielectric Characteristics of Rigid Electrical Insulating Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buică, G.; Antonov, A. E.; Beiu, C.; Dobra, R.; Risteiu, M.

2018-06-01

Rigid electrical insulating materials are used in the manufacture of work equipment with electric safety function, being mainly intended for use in the energy sector. The paper presents the results of the research on the identification of the technical and safety requirements for rigid electrical insulating materials that are part of the electrical insulating work equipment. The paper aims to show the behaviour of rigid electrical insulating materials under the influence of mechanical risk factors, in order to check the functionality and to ensure the safety function for the entire life time. There were tested rigid electrical insulating equipment designed to be used as safety means in electrical power stations and overhead power lines.

Power factor regulation for household usage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daud, Nik Ghazali Nik; Hashim, Fakroul Ridzuan; Tarmizi, Muhammad Haziq Ahmad

2018-02-01

Power factor regulator technology has recently drawn attention to the consumer and to power generation company in order for consumers to use electricity efficiently. Controlling of power factor for efficient usage can reduce the production of power in fulfilment demands hence reducing the greenhouse effect. This paper presents the design method of power factor controller for household usage. There are several methods to improve the power factor. The power factor controller used by this method is by using capacitors. Total harmonic distortion also has become a major problem for the reliability of the electrical appliances and techniques to control it will be discussed.

Incidence of online health information search: a useful proxy for public health risk perception.

PubMed

Liang, Bo; Scammon, Debra L

2013-06-17

Internet users use search engines to look for information online, including health information. Researchers in medical informatics have found a high correlation of the occurrence of certain search queries and the incidence of certain diseases. Consumers' search for information about diseases is related to current health status with regard to a disease and to the social environments that shape the public's attitudes and behaviors. This study aimed to investigate the extent to which public health risk perception as demonstrated by online information searches related to a health risk can be explained by the incidence of the health risk and social components of a specific population's environment. Using an ecological perspective, we suggest that a population's general concern for a health risk is formed by the incidence of the risk and social (eg, media attention) factors related with the risk. We constructed a dataset that included state-level data from 32 states on the incidence of the flu; a number of social factors, such as media attention to the flu; private resources, such as education and health insurance coverage; public resources, such as hospital beds and primary physicians; and utilization of these resources, including inpatient days and outpatient visits. We then explored whether online information searches about the flu (seasonal and pandemic flu) can be predicted using these variables. We used factor analysis to construct indexes for sets of social factors (private resources, public resources). We then applied panel data multiple regression analysis to exploit both time-series and cross-sectional variation in the data over a 7-year period. Overall, the results provide evidence that the main effects of independent variables-the incidence of the flu (P<.001); social factors, including media attention (P<.001); private resources, including life quality (P<.001) and health lifestyles (P=.009); and public resources, such as hospital care utilization (P=.008) and public health funds (P=.02)-have significant effects on Web searches for queries related to the flu. After controlling for the number of reported disease cases and Internet access rate by state, we estimate the contribution of social factors to the public health risk perception levels by state (R(2)=23.37%). The interaction effects between flu incidence and social factors for our search terms did not add to the explanatory power of our regression models (R(2)<1%). Our study suggests a practical way to measure the public's health risk perception for certain diseases using online information search volume by state. The social environment influences public risk perception regardless of disease incidence. Thus, monitoring the social variables can be very helpful in being ready to respond to the public's behavior in dealing with public health threats.

Relationship Power Among Same-Sex Male Couples in New York and San Francisco: Laying the Groundwork for Sexual Risk Reduction Interventions Focused on Interpersonal Power.

PubMed

Dworkin, Shari L; Zakaras, Jennifer M; Campbell, Chadwick; Wilson, Patrick; Grisham, Kirk; Chakravarty, Deepalika; Neilands, Torsten B; Hoff, Colleen

2017-09-01

Research is clear that power differentials between women and men shape women's human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risks; however, little research has attempted to examine power differentials within same-sex male (SSM) couples and whether these influence sexual risk outcomes. To produce the first quantitative scale that measures power in SSM relationships, the current work was a Phase 1 qualitative study that sought to understand domains of relationship power and how power operated in the relationship among 48 Black, White, and interracial (Black-White) SSM couples recruited from San Francisco and New York. Interview domains were focused on definitions of power and perceptions of how power operated in the relationship. Findings revealed that couples described power in three key ways: as power exerted over a partner through decision-making dominance and relationship control; as power to accomplish goals through personal agency; and as couple-level power. In addition, men described ways that decision-making dominance and relationship control could be enacted in the relationship-through structural resources, emotional and sexual influence, and gender norm expectations. We discuss the implications of these findings for sexual risks and HIV care and treatment with SSM couples that are focused on closing gaps in power.

Dietary habits during the 2 months following the Chernobyl accident and differentiated thyroid cancer risk in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Xhaard, Constance; Rubino, Carole; Souchard, Vincent; Maillard, Stéphane; Ren, Yan; Borson-Chazot, Françoise; Sassolas, Geneviève; Schvartz, Claire; Colonna, Marc; Lacour, Brigitte; Woronoff, Anne Sophie; Velten, Michel; Marrer, Emilie; Bailly, Laurent; Mariné Barjoan, Eugènia; Schlumberger, Martin; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, Andre; Orgiazzi, Jacques; Adjadj, Elisabeth; de Vathaire, Florent

2018-02-01

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident occurred in Ukraine on April 26th 1986. In France, the radioactive fallout and thyroid radiation doses were much lower than in highly contaminated areas. However, a number of risk projections have suggested that a small excess in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) might occur in eastern France due to this low-level fallout. In order to investigate this potential impact, a case-control study on DTC risk factors was started in 2005, focusing on cases who were less than 15 years old at the time of the Chernobyl accident. Here, we aim to evaluate the relationship between some specific reports of potentially contaminated food between April and June 1986 - in particular fresh dairy products and leafy vegetables - and DTC risk. After excluding subjects who were not born before the Chernobyl accident, the study included 747 cases of DTC matched with 815 controls. Odds ratios were calculated using conditional logistic regression models and were reported for all participants, for women only, for papillary cancer only, and excluding microcarcinomas. The DTC risk was slightly higher for participants who had consumed locally produced leafy vegetables. However, this association was not stronger in the more contaminated areas than in the others. Conversely, the reported consumption of fresh dairy products was not statistically associated with DTC risk. Because the increase in DTC risk associated with a higher consumption of locally produced vegetables was not more important in the most contaminated areas, our study lacked power to provide evidence for a strong association between consumption of potentially contaminated food and DTC risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender-based violence, relationship power, and risk of HIV infection in women attending antenatal clinics in South Africa.

PubMed

Dunkle, Kristin L; Jewkes, Rachel K; Brown, Heather C; Gray, Glenda E; McIntryre, James A; Harlow, Siobán D

2004-05-01

Gender-based violence and gender inequality are increasingly cited as important determinants of women's HIV risk; yet empirical research on possible connections remains limited. No study on women has yet assessed gender-based violence as a risk factor for HIV after adjustment for women's own high-risk behaviours, although these are known to be associated with experience of violence. We did a cross-sectional study of 1366 women presenting for antenatal care at four health centres in Soweto, South Africa, who accepted routine antenatal HIV testing. Private face-to-face interviews were done in local languages and included assessement of sociodemographic characteristics, experience of gender-based violence, the South African adaptation of the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS), and risk behaviours including multiple, concurrent, and casual male partners, and transactional sex. After adjustment for age and current relationship status and women's risk behaviour, intimate partner violence (odds ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.15-1.89) and high levels of male control in a woman's current relationship as measured by the SRPS (1.52, 1.13-2.04) were associated with HIV seropositivity. Child sexual assault, forced first intercourse, and adult sexual assault by non-partners were not associated with HIV serostatus. Women with violent or controlling male partners are at increased risk of HIV infection. We postulate that abusive men are more likely to have HIV and impose risky sexual practices on partners. Research on connections between social constructions of masculinity, intimate partner violence, male dominance in relationships, and HIV risk behaviours in men, as well as effective interventions, are urgently needed.

Factors associated with the risk perception and purchase decisions of Fukushima-related food in South Korea

PubMed Central

Song, Min Kyoung; Lee, Hyang Ki; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo

2017-01-01

Following the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, the risk level perceived by Koreans on the radioactive contamination of Japanese food that is being distributed in Korea remains high. Many of these perceptions are based on subjective risk perception rather than an objective measure with scientific evidence, which makes communicating risks more difficult; therefore, it is critical to understand factors associated with risk perception for effective risk communication. In this study, we identified variables that are associated with buying tendencies and opinions about the regulatory policy of Japanese seafood after the accident. A survey was conducted with 1045 adults aged over 20 years in Korea. The majority (68.8%) responded that they would not purchase Japanese seafood when radioactivity levels in the food were non-detectable. Moreover, 82.2% responded that the current levels of import restrictions on Japanese seafood must be maintained. Despite many concerns regarding the exposure to radiation and the effects from food products following the Fukushima accident, the opportunities to encounter and to collect correct information remain limited and average radioactive knowledge scores were low (3.63 out of 9). Of the various characteristics associated with purchase decisions and agreement on the current import restraints of Japanese seafood, trust levels in the government and the mass media for providing information on radioactivity were major factors that influenced risk perception. While the scope of this study was limited to seafood, it is very closely tied to daily lives, where we revealed differences about risk perceptions and agreement on import restraints of Japanese seafood per a complex mixture of individual characteristics and the surrounding environment. These results provide useful information to understand the risk perception of the potential radioactive contamination of food and to predict the public’s responses to food consumption and import restraint policies due to nuclear accidents in neighboring countries. PMID:29117237

Factors associated with the risk perception and purchase decisions of Fukushima-related food in South Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Dalnim; Seo, Songwon; Song, Min Kyoung; Lee, Hyang Ki; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo

2017-01-01

Following the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, the risk level perceived by Koreans on the radioactive contamination of Japanese food that is being distributed in Korea remains high. Many of these perceptions are based on subjective risk perception rather than an objective measure with scientific evidence, which makes communicating risks more difficult; therefore, it is critical to understand factors associated with risk perception for effective risk communication. In this study, we identified variables that are associated with buying tendencies and opinions about the regulatory policy of Japanese seafood after the accident. A survey was conducted with 1045 adults aged over 20 years in Korea. The majority (68.8%) responded that they would not purchase Japanese seafood when radioactivity levels in the food were non-detectable. Moreover, 82.2% responded that the current levels of import restrictions on Japanese seafood must be maintained. Despite many concerns regarding the exposure to radiation and the effects from food products following the Fukushima accident, the opportunities to encounter and to collect correct information remain limited and average radioactive knowledge scores were low (3.63 out of 9). Of the various characteristics associated with purchase decisions and agreement on the current import restraints of Japanese seafood, trust levels in the government and the mass media for providing information on radioactivity were major factors that influenced risk perception. While the scope of this study was limited to seafood, it is very closely tied to daily lives, where we revealed differences about risk perceptions and agreement on import restraints of Japanese seafood per a complex mixture of individual characteristics and the surrounding environment. These results provide useful information to understand the risk perception of the potential radioactive contamination of food and to predict the public's responses to food consumption and import restraint policies due to nuclear accidents in neighboring countries.

[PREDICTING OF RISK OF SOIL CONTAMINATION BY DIFFERENT CLASSES OF FUNGICIDES IN SOIL AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OF UKRAINE].

PubMed

Korshun, M; Dema, O; Kucherenko, O; Ruda, T; Korshun, O; Gorbachevskyi, R; Pelio, I; Antonenko, A

2016-07-01

Application of pesticides in modern agriculture is a powerful permanent risk factor for public health and the natural environment. The aim of the study was a comparative hygienic assessment of soil pollution hazards by the most widely used herbicides of different chemical classes (sulfonylureas, imidazolinones, pyrimidinyl (thio) benzoates, semicarbazones). Hygienic field experiment for studying of the dynamics of residual amounts of the test substances in the soil under different climatic zones of Ukraine was conducted. Half life periods (DT50) or herbicides in soil were calculated using the method of mathematical modeling. Ecotoxicological risk of herbicides on ecosystems and ecological communities was determined. It was established that bispyribac-sodium (pyrimidinyl (thio) benzoates) and imidazolinones are persist the longest time in soil and most rapidly degradable is diflufenzopyr (semicarbazone); ecotoxicological risk of the studied herbicides for terrestrial biocenoses of Ukraine by 4-6 orders of magnitude lower than dihlordifeniltrihlormetilmetan (DDT).

Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk Based on Multiple Longitudinal Biomarkers

PubMed Central

Yang, Lili; Yu, Menggang; Gao, Sujuan

2016-01-01

In the last decade, few topics in the area of cardiovascular disease (CVD) research have received as much attention as risk prediction. One of the well documented risk factors for CVD is high blood pressure (BP). Traditional CVD risk prediction models consider BP levels measured at a single time and such models form the basis for current clinical guidelines for CVD prevention. However, in clinical practice, BP levels are often observed and recorded in a longitudinal fashion. Information on BP trajectories can be powerful predictors for CVD events. We consider joint modeling of time to coronary artery disease and individual longitudinal measures of systolic and diastolic BPs in a primary care cohort with up to 20 years of follow-up. We applied novel prediction metrics to assess the predictive performance of joint models. Predictive performances of proposed joint models and other models were assessed via simulations and illustrated using the primary care cohort. PMID:26439685

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province, southwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Xilin; Yue, Zhong Qi; Tham, Lesliw George; Lee, Chack Fan

2002-08-01

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.

The Uses of Text Messaging in Sexual Relationships Scale: Associations with risky sexual behavior among at-risk African American emerging adults

PubMed Central

Broaddus, Michelle; Dickson-Gomez, Julia

2017-01-01

Qualitative and quantitative research was used to create the Uses of Texting in Sexual Relationships scale. At-risk, predominantly African American emerging adults participated in qualitative interviews (N = 20) and quantitative surveys (N = 110) about their uses of text messaging within romantic and sexual relationships. Exploratory factor analysis of items generated from interviews resulted in four subscales: Sexting, Relationship Maintenance, Relationship Development, and Texting for Sexual Safety. Exploratory analyses indicated associations of Sexting with more instances of condomless sex, and Texting for Sexual Safety with fewer instances of condomless sex, which was moderated by relationship power. Further research on the connections between text messaging in relationships and sexual behavior among high-risk and minority young adults is warranted, and intervention efforts to decrease sexual risks need to incorporate these avenues of sexual communication. PMID:27710089

The Uses of Texting in Sexual Relationships Scale: Associations With Risky Sexual Behavior Among At-Risk African American Emerging Adults.

PubMed

Broaddus, Michelle; Dickson-Gomez, Julia

2016-10-01

Qualitative and quantitative research was used to create the Uses of Texting in Sexual Relationships scale. At-risk, predominantly African American emerging adults participated in qualitative interviews (N = 20) and quantitative surveys (N = 110) about their uses of text messaging within romantic and sexual relationships. Exploratory factor analysis of items generated from interviews resulted in four subscales: Sexting, Relationship Maintenance, Relationship Development, and Texting for Sexual Safety. Exploratory analyses indicated associations of Sexting with more instances of condomless sex, and Texting for Sexual Safety with fewer instances of condomless sex, which was moderated by relationship power. Further research on the connections between text messaging in relationships and sexual behavior among high-risk and minority young adults is warranted, and intervention efforts to decrease sexual risks need to incorporate these avenues of sexual communication.

Single-Event Gate Rupture in Power MOSFETs: A New Radiation Hardness Assurance Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauenstein, Jean-Marie

2011-01-01

Almost every space mission uses vertical power metal-semiconductor-oxide field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) in its power-supply circuitry. These devices can fail catastrophically due to single-event gate rupture (SEGR) when exposed to energetic heavy ions. To reduce SEGR failure risk, the off-state operating voltages of the devices are derated based upon radiation tests at heavy-ion accelerator facilities. Testing is very expensive. Even so, data from these tests provide only a limited guide to on-orbit performance. In this work, a device simulation-based method is developed to measure the response to strikes from heavy ions unavailable at accelerator facilities but posing potential risk on orbit. This work is the first to show that the present derating factor, which was established from non-radiation reliability concerns, is appropriate to reduce on-orbit SEGR failure risk when applied to data acquired from ions with appropriate penetration range. A second important outcome of this study is the demonstration of the capability and usefulness of this simulation technique for augmenting SEGR data from accelerator beam facilities. The mechanisms of SEGR are two-fold: the gate oxide is weakened by the passage of the ion through it, and the charge ionized along the ion track in the silicon transiently increases the oxide electric field. Most hardness assurance methodologies consider the latter mechanism only. This work demonstrates through experiment and simulation that the gate oxide response should not be neglected. In addition, the premise that the temporary weakening of the oxide due to the ion interaction with it, as opposed to due to the transient oxide field generated from within the silicon, is validated. Based upon these findings, a new approach to radiation hardness assurance for SEGR in power MOSFETs is defined to reduce SEGR risk in space flight projects. Finally, the potential impact of accumulated dose over the course of a space mission on SEGR susceptibility is explored. SEGR evaluation of gamma-irradiated power MOSFETs suggests a non-significant SEGR susceptibility enhancement due to accumulated dose from gamma rays. During SEGR testing, an unexpected enhanced dose effect from heavy-ion irradiation was detected. We demonstrate that this effect could be due to direct ionization by two or more ions at the same channel location. The probability on-orbit for such an occurrence is near-zero given the low heavy-ion fluence over a typical mission lifetime, and did not affect SEGR susceptibility. The results of this work can be used to bound the risk of SEGR in power MOSFETs considered for insertion into spacecraft and instruments.

Partner violence, power and gender differences in South African adolescents’ HIV/STI behaviors

PubMed Central

TEITELMAN, Anne M.; JEMMOTT, John B.; BELLAMY, Scarlett L.; ICARD, Larry D.; O'LEARY, Ann; HEEREN, G. Anita; NGWANE, Zolani; RATCLIFFE, Sarah J.

2016-01-01

Objectives Low relationship power and victimization by intimate partner violence (IPV) have been linked to HIV risks among adult females and adolescent girls. This article examines associations of IPV and relationship power with sexual-risk behaviors and whether the associations differ by gender among South African adolescents. Methods Sexual-risk behaviors (multiple partners in past 3 months; condom use at last sex), IPV, and relationship power were collected from 786 sexually experienced adolescents (mean age = 16.9) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa during the 54-month follow-up of a HIV/STI risk-reduction intervention trial. Logistic regression examined associations of sexual-risk behaviors with IPV and relationship power and whether the associations differed by gender. Results Adolescent boys were less likely to report condom use at last sex (p=.001) and more likely to report multiple partners (p< .001). A Gender x IPV interaction (p=.002) revealed that as IPV victimization increased, self-reported condom use at last sex decreased among girls, but increased among boys. A Gender x Relationship Power interaction (p=.004) indicated that as relationship power increased, self-reported condom use at last sex increased among girls, but decreased among boys. A Gender x IPV interaction (p=.004) indicated that as IPV victimization increased, self-reports of having multiple partners increased among boys, but not among girls. As relationship power increased, self-reports of having multiple partners decreased irrespective of gender. Conclusions HIV risk-reduction interventions and policies should address gender differences in sexual-risk consequences of IPV and relationship power among adolescents and promote gender equity. PMID:27111184

African ancestry, early life exposures, and respiratory morbidity in early childhood

PubMed Central

Kumar, R.; Tsai, H.-J.; Hong, X.; Gignoux, C.; Pearson, C.; Ortiz, K.; Fu, M.; Pongracic, J. A.; Burchard, E. G.; Bauchner, H.; Wang, X.

2012-01-01

Summary Background Racial disparities persist in early childhood wheezing and cannot be completely explained by known risk factors. Objective To evaluate the associations of genetic ancestry and self-identified race with early childhood recurrent wheezing, accounting for socio-economic status (SES) and early life exposures. Methods We studied 1034 children in an urban, multi-racial, prospective birth cohort. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of genetic ancestry as opposed to self-identified race with recurrent wheezing (>3 episodes). Sequential models accounted for demographic, socio-economic factors and early life risk factors. Genetic ancestry, estimated using 150 ancestry informative markers, was expressed in deciles. Results Approximately 6.1% of subjects (mean age 3.1 years) experienced recurrent wheezing. After accounting for SES and demographic factors, African ancestry (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02–1.31) was significantly associated with recurrent wheezing. By self-reported race, hispanic subjects had a borderline decrease in risk of wheeze compared with African Americans (OR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.19–1.00), whereas white subjects (OR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.14–1.57) did not have. After further adjustment for known confounders and early life exposures, both African (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05–1.34) and European ancestry (OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.74–0.94) retained a significant association with recurrent wheezing, as compared with self-identified race (ORwhites: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.09–1.14; ORhispanic: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.20–1.08). There were no significant interactions between ancestry and early life factors on recurrent wheezing. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance In contrast to self-identified race, African ancestry remained a significant, independent predictor of early childhood wheezing after accounting for early life and other known risk factors associated with lung function changes and asthma. Genetic ancestry may be a powerful way to evaluate wheezing disparities and a proxy for differentially distributed genetic and early life risk factors associated with childhood recurrent wheezing. PMID:22093077

77 FR 70846 - Regulatory Guide 1.182, “Assessing and Managing Risk Before Maintenance Activities at Nuclear...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-27

... Risk Before Maintenance Activities at Nuclear Power Plants'' AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... Activities at Nuclear Power Plants,'' published in May 2000. The document is redundant due to the inclusion... Risk Before Maintenance Activities at Nuclear Power Plants,'' published in May 2000. The requirements...

Anterior cruciate ligament injury/reinjury in alpine ski racing: a narrative review

PubMed Central

Jordan, Matthew J; Aagaard, Per; Herzog, Walter

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present review was to: 1) provide an overview of the current understanding on the epidemiology, etiology, risk factors, and prevention methods for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in alpine ski racing; and 2) provide an overview of what is known pertaining to ACL reinjury and return to sport after ACL injury in alpine ski racing. Given that most of the scientific studies on ACL injuries in alpine ski racing have been descriptive, and that very few studies contributed higher level scientific evidence, a nonsystematic narrative review was employed. Three scholarly databases were searched for articles on ACL injury or knee injury in alpine ski racing. Studies were classified according to their relevance in relation to epidemiology, etiology, risk factors, and return to sport/reinjury prevention. Alpine ski racers (skiers) were found to be at high risk for knee injuries, and ACL tears were the most frequent diagnosis. Three primary ACL injury mechanism were identified that involved tibial internal rotation and anteriorly directed shear forces from ski equipment and the environment. While trunk muscle strength imbalance and genetics were found to be predictive of ACL injuries in development-level skiers, there was limited scientific data on ACL injury risk factors among elite skiers. Based on expert opinion, research on injury risk factors should focus on equipment design, course settings/speed, and athlete factors (eg, fitness). While skiers seem to make a successful recovery following ACL injury, there may be persistent neuromuscular deficits. Future research efforts should be directed toward prospective studies on ACL injury/reinjury prevention in both male and female skiers and toward the effects of knee injury on long-term health outcomes, such as the early development of osteoarthritis. International collaborations may be necessary to generate sufficient statistical power for ACL injury/reinjury prevention research in alpine ski racing. PMID:28435336

Two weeks of high-intensity interval training improves novel but not traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors in adolescents.

PubMed

Bond, Bert; Cockcroft, Emma J; Williams, Craig A; Harris, Sam; Gates, Phillip E; Jackman, Sarah R; Armstrong, Neil; Barker, Alan R

2015-09-15

High-intensity interval training (HIIT) improves traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in adolescents, but no study has identified the influence of HIIT on endothelial and autonomic function in this group. Thirteen 13- to 14-yr-old adolescents (6 girls) completed six HIIT sessions over 2 wk. Each training session consisted of eight to ten 1-min repetitions of cycling at 90% peak power interspersed with 75 s of unloaded cycling. Traditional (triglycerides, cholesterol, glucose, insulin, and blood pressure) and novel [flow-mediated dilation (FMD), heart rate variability (HRV)] CVD risk factors were assessed in a fasted and postprandial state before (PRE), 1 day after (POST-1D), and 3 days after (POST-3D) training. Aerobic fitness was determined PRE and POST-3D. Two weeks of HIIT had no effect on aerobic fitness or traditional CVD risk factors determined in the fasted or postprandial state (P > 0.15). Compared with PRE, fasted FMD was improved POST-1D [P = 0.003, effect size (ES) = 0.70] but not POST-3D (P = 0.32, ES = 0.22). Fasted FMD was greater POST-1D compared with POST-3D (P = 0.04, ES = 0.48). Compared with PRE, postprandial FMD was greater POST-1D (P < 0.001, ES = 1.01) and POST-3D (P = 0.01, ES = 0.60). Fasted HRV was greater POST-1D (P = 0.001, ES = 0.71) and POST-3D (P = 0.02, ES = 0.44). The test meal lowered HRV in all laboratory visits (P < 0.001, ES = 0.59), but there were no differences in postprandial HRV between visits (P > 0.32 for all). Two weeks of HIIT enhanced endothelial function and HRV without improvements in traditional CVD risk factors. However, most of this favorable adaptation was lost POST-3D, suggesting that regularly performing high-intensity exercise is needed to maintain these benefits. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric mercury concentrations emitted from a coal-fired power plant in Mexico.

PubMed

García, Gilberto Fuentes; Álvarez, Humberto Bravo; Echeverría, Rodolfo Sosa; de Alba, Sergio Rosas; Rueda, Víctor Magaña; Dosantos, Ernesto Caetano; Cruz, Gustavo Vázquez

2017-09-01

Atmospheric mercury in the environment as a result of the consumption of fossil fuels, such as coal used in electricity generation, has gained increased attention worldwide because of its toxicity, atmospheric persistence, and bioaccumulation. Determining or predicting the concentration of this pollutant in ambient air is essential for determining sensitive areas requiring health protection. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variability of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations and its dry deposition surrounding the Presidente Plutarco Elías Calles (CETEPEC) coal-fired power plant, located on Mexico's Pacific coast. The CALPUFF dispersion model was applied on the basis of the daily consumption of coal during 2013 for each generating unit in the power plant and considering the local scale. The established 300-ng/m 3 annual average risk factor considered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (U.S. DHHS) and Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) must not be exceeded to meet satisfactory air quality levels. An area of 65 × 60 km was evaluated, and the results show that the risk level for mercury vapor was not exceeded because the annual average concentration was 2.8 ng/m 3 . Although the predicted risk level was not exceeded, continuous monitoring studies of GEM and of particulates in the atmosphere, soil, and water may be necessary to identify the concentration of this pollutant, specifically that resulting from coal-fired power plants operated in environmental areas of interest in Mexico. The dry mercury deposition was low in the study area; according to the CALPUFF model, the annual average was 1.40E-2 ng/m 2 /sec. These results represent a starting point for Mexico's government to implement the Minamata Convention on Mercury, which Mexico signed in 2013. The obtained concentrations of mercury from a bigger coal-fired plant in Mexico, through the application of the CALPUFF dispersion model by the mercury emissions, are below the level recommended according to the US Department of Health and Human Services and Integrated Risk Information System. These results provide evidence of important progress in the planning and installation to the future of monitoring mercury stations in the area of interest.

Re-insurance in the Swiss health insurance market: Fit, power, and balance.

PubMed

Schmid, Christian P R; Beck, Konstantin

2016-07-01

Risk equalization mechanisms mitigate insurers' incentives to practice risk selection. On the other hand, incentives to limit healthcare spending can be distorted by risk equalization, particularly when risk equalization payments depend on realized costs instead of expected costs. In addition, cost based risk equalization mechanisms may incentivize health insurers to distort the allocation of resources among different services. The incentives to practice risk selection, to limit healthcare spending, and to distort the allocation of resources can be measured by fit, power, and balance, respectively. We apply these three measures to evaluate the risk adjustment mechanism in Switzerland. Our results suggest that it performs very well in terms of power but rather poorly in terms of fit. The latter indicates that risk selection might be a severe problem. We show that re-insurance can reduce this problem while power remains on a high level. In addition, we provide evidence that the Swiss risk equalization mechanism does not lead to imbalances across different services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

No Association Between Variant N-acetyltransferase Genes, Cigarette Smoking and Prostate Cancer Susceptibility Among Men of African Descent

PubMed Central

Kidd, La Creis Renee; VanCleave, Tiva T.; Doll, Mark A.; Srivastava, Daya S.; Thacker, Brandon; Komolafe, Oyeyemi; Pihur, Vasyl; Brock, Guy N.; Hein, David W.

2011-01-01

Objective We evaluated the individual and combination effects of NAT1, NAT2 and tobacco smoking in a case-control study of 219 incident prostate cancer (PCa) cases and 555 disease-free men. Methods Allelic discriminations for 15 NAT1 and NAT2 loci were detected in germ-line DNA samples using Taqman polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. Single gene, gene-gene and gene-smoking interactions were analyzed using logistic regression models and multi-factor dimensionality reduction (MDR) adjusted for age and subpopulation stratification. MDR involves a rigorous algorithm that has ample statistical power to assess and visualize gene-gene and gene-environment interactions using relatively small samples sizes (i.e., 200 cases and 200 controls). Results Despite the relatively high prevalence of NAT1*10/*10 (40.1%), NAT2 slow (30.6%), and NAT2 very slow acetylator genotypes (10.1%) among our study participants, these putative risk factors did not individually or jointly increase PCa risk among all subjects or a subset analysis restricted to tobacco smokers. Conclusion Our data do not support the use of N-acetyltransferase genetic susceptibilities as PCa risk factors among men of African descent; however, subsequent studies in larger sample populations are needed to confirm this finding. PMID:21709725

Influence of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster on the birth weight of newborns in Fukushima Prefecture: Fukushima Health Management Survey.

PubMed

Yasuda, Shun; Kyozuka, Hyo; Nomura, Yasuhisa; Fujimori, Keiya; Goto, Aya; Yasumura, Seiji; Hata, Kennichi; Ohira, Tetsuya; Abe, Masafumi

2017-12-01

The Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster occurred on 11 March 2011. We investigated the incidence of SGA (small for gestational age) in the Fukushima Prefecture in newborns delivered by women who were pregnant at the time of the disasters and identified any risk factors for SGA. Subjects were women who were pregnant at the time of the disasters. Questionnaires were sent to the women who lived in the Hamadori area (seaside and near to the nuclear power plant) at the time of the disasters as well as to a control group of women who lived outside the Hamadori area. The incidence of SGA was compared. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors for SGA. In total, 325(5.6%) women had infants with SGA. Neither area nor the trimester of pregnancy at the time of the disasters influenced the incidence of SGA. Pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) was higher in the SGA group. PIH was found to be an independent risk factor for SGA. We found no evidence that the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster increased the incidence of SGA in the Fukushima Prefecture.

Home sleep study for patients with myasthenia gravis.

PubMed

Yeh, J-H; Lin, C-M; Chiu, H-C; Bai, C-H

2015-09-01

The objective of the study was to examine predictors for sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) in patients with myasthenia gravis (MG) using Watch-PAT. We prospectively studied 58 consecutive patients with MG without respiratory symptoms for a full-night Watch-PAT with concomitant recording of the MG score and acetylcholine receptor antibody concentration and analyzed potential risk factors of SDB. Twenty-four patients (41%) had definitive SDB, which was mild in 12 patients, moderate in six, and severe in six. Assessing risk factors with multivariate models, we found four significant predictors (BMI, age, male gender, and use of azathioprine); BMI was the most powerful predictor. The severity and prevalence of sleep-disordered breathing had no significant association with MG score, myasthenia stage, or seropositivity of acetylcholine receptor antibody. The prevalence of SDB in myasthenic patients with mild and moderate weakness was high when using the Watch-PAT. Both myasthenia-specific factors (use of azathioprine) and general predictors in terms of BMI, age, and male gender predisposed the development of SDB in patients with myasthenia gravis. Careful screening of patients with myasthenia gravis at risk of SDB using Watch-PAT might improve the quality of sleep and cardiovascular health through proper treatment of underlying SDB. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

Core stability: implications for dance injuries.

PubMed

Rickman, Ashley M; Ambegaonkar, Jatin P; Cortes, Nelson

2012-09-01

Dancers experience a high incidence of injury due to the extreme physical demands of dancing. The majority of dance injuries are chronic in nature and occur in the lower extremities and low back. Researchers have indicated decreased core stability (CS) as a risk factor for these injuries. Although decreased CS is suggested to negatively affect lower extremity joint motion and lumbar control during activity, this relationship has not been extensively discussed in previous dance literature. Understanding the relationship between CS and injury risk is important to help reduce dance injury incidence and improve performance. The purposes of this review were to discuss: 1. the core and components of CS, 2. the relationship between CS and injury, 3. CS assessment techniques, and 4. future dance CS research areas. CS is the integration of passive (non-contractile), active (contractile), and neural structures to minimize the effects of external forces and maintain stability. CS is maintained by a combination of muscle power, strength, endurance, and sensory-motor control of the lumbopelvic-hip complex. CS assessments include measuring muscle strength and power using maximal voluntary isometric and isokinetic contractions and measuring endurance using the Biering-Sorensen, plank, and lateral plank tests. Measuring sensory-motor control requires specialized equipment (e.g., balance platforms). Overall, limited research has comprehensively examined all components of CS together and their relationships to injury. Rather, previous researchers have separately examined core power, strength, endurance, or sensory-motor control. Future researchers should explore the multifactorial role of CS in reducing injury risk and enhancing performance in dancers.

Simple Scoring System to Predict In-Hospital Mortality After Surgery for Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Gatti, Giuseppe; Perrotti, Andrea; Obadia, Jean-François; Duval, Xavier; Iung, Bernard; Alla, François; Chirouze, Catherine; Selton-Suty, Christine; Hoen, Bruno; Sinagra, Gianfranco; Delahaye, François; Tattevin, Pierre; Le Moing, Vincent; Pappalardo, Aniello; Chocron, Sidney

2017-07-20

Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in-hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE, and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis. Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in-hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty-six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m 2 (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P =0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate <50 mL/min (OR, 3.52; P <0.0001), New York Heart Association class IV (OR, 2.11; P =0.024), systolic pulmonary artery pressure >55 mm Hg (OR, 1.78; P =0.032), and critical state (OR, 2.37; P =0.017) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in-hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734-0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in-hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered. A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in-hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Risk factors that predict severe injuries in university rugby sevens players.

PubMed

Mirsafaei Rizi, Rezvan; Yeung, Simon S; Stewart, Nathan J; Yeung, Ella W

2017-07-01

To investigate injury incidence and the influence of physical fitness parameters on the risk of severe injuries in players on rugby sevens university teams. Prospective cohort study. Rugby players from three universities (N=104; 90M:14F; 20.6±1.9years) were recruited before the beginning of the season. Players underwent pre-season assessments of power, strength, speed, agility, endurance, stability, and flexibility. Throughout the season, rugby-related injury and exposure data were collected. Potential predictor variables were analyzed using Cox proportional regression model to identify risk factors associated with severe injuries (time loss>28days). Thirty-one injuries occurred during the rugby season. The match and training injury incidence rates were 59.3 injuries and 3.3 injuries per 1000 player-hours, respectively. Lower limb injuries were most common and most severe. The ankle joint was the most prevalent site of injury, and ligamentous injury was most common (48.4%). Nine severe injuries were sustained resulting in an average time loss of 51.3±14.6days. Female (hazard ratio [HR]=8.35; 95% confidence intervals [CI]=2.01-34.8), slower (HR=3.51; 95% CI=1.17-10.5), and less agile (HR=2.22; 95% CI=1.26-3.92) players as well as those with hip flexors tightness (HR=1.12; 95% CI=1.00-1.25) were at significantly greater risk for sustaining severe injuries. Limited studies are available on risk factors associated with amateur rugby players in the Sevens version. The development of gender-specific injury prevention measures that emphasize speed and agility training, and improve hip flexor extensibility may be important to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using fire dynamics simulator to reconstruct a hydroelectric power plant fire accident.

PubMed

Chi, Jen-Hao; Wu, Sheng-Hung; Shu, Chi-Min

2011-11-01

The location of the hydroelectric power plant poses a high risk to occupants seeking to escape in a fire accident. Calculating the heat release rate of transformer oil as 11.5 MW/m(2), the fire at the Taiwan Dajia-River hydroelectric power plant was reconstructed using the fire dynamics simulator (FDS). The variations at the escape route of the fire hazard factors temperature, radiant heat, carbon monoxide, and oxygen were collected during the simulation to verify the causes of the serious casualties resulting from the fire. The simulated safe escape time when taking temperature changes into account is about 236 sec, 155 sec for radiant heat changes, 260 sec for carbon monoxide changes, and 235-248 sec for oxygen changes. These escape times are far less than the actual escape time of 302 sec. The simulation thus demonstrated the urgent need to improve escape options for people escaping a hydroelectric power plant fire. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Does Adolescents’ Religiousness Moderate Links between Harsh Parenting and Adolescent Substance Use?

PubMed Central

Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Farley, Julee P.; Holmes, Christopher J.; Longo, Gregory S.

2014-01-01

Extant literature suggests that religiousness is inversely related to adolescent substance use; yet, no systematic investigation has examined whether religiousness may be a protective factor against substance use in the presence of risk factors. We examined whether religiousness moderates the links between parents’ psychological and physical aggression and adolescent substance use directly and indirectly through adolescent self-control. The sample comprised adolescents (N = 220, 45% female) and their primary caregivers. Structural equation modeling analyses suggested that adolescents with low religiousness were likely to engage in substance use when subjected to harsh parenting, but there was no association between harsh parenting and substance use among adolescents with high religiousness. Furthermore, although harsh parenting was related to poor adolescent self-control regardless of religiousness levels, poor self-control was significantly related to substance use for adolescents with low religiousness, whereas the link between poor self-control and substance use did not exist for adolescents with high religiousness. The findings present the first evidence that adolescent religiousness may be a powerful buffering factor that can positively alter pathways to substance use in the presence of risk factors such as harsh parenting and poor self-control. PMID:24979658

Does adolescents' religiousness moderate links between harsh parenting and adolescent substance use?

PubMed

Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Farley, Julee P; Holmes, Christopher J; Longo, Gregory S

2014-12-01

Extant literature suggests that religiousness is inversely related to adolescent substance use; yet, no systematic investigation has examined whether religiousness may be a protective factor against substance use in the presence of risk factors. We examined whether religiousness moderates the links between parents' psychological and physical aggression and adolescent substance use directly and indirectly through adolescent self-control. The sample comprised adolescents (n = 220, 45% female) and their primary caregivers. Structural equation modeling analyses suggested that adolescents with low religiousness were likely to engage in substance use when subjected to harsh parenting, but there was no association between harsh parenting and substance use among adolescents with high religiousness. Furthermore, although harsh parenting was related to poor adolescent self-control regardless of religiousness levels, poor self-control was significantly related to substance use for adolescents with low religiousness, whereas the link between poor self-control and substance use did not exist for adolescents with high religiousness. The findings present the first evidence that adolescent religiousness may be a powerful buffering factor that can positively alter pathways to substance use in the presence of risk factors such as harsh parenting and poor self-control.

Severe Psychological Distress of Evacuees in Evacuation Zone Caused by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident: The Fukushima Health Management Survey

PubMed Central

Kunii, Yasuto; Suzuki, Yuriko; Shiga, Tetsuya; Yabe, Hirooki; Yasumura, Seiji; Maeda, Masaharu; Niwa, Shin-ichi; Otsuru, Akira; Mashiko, Hirobumi; Abe, Masafumi

2016-01-01

Background Following the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has continued to affect the mental health status of residents in the evacuation zone. To examine the mental health status of evacuee after the nuclear accident, we conducted the Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey as part of the ongoing Fukushima Health Management Survey. Methods We measured mental health status using the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale (K6) in a total of 73,569 (response rate: 40.7%) evacuees aged 15 and over who lived in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. We then dichotomized responders using a 12/13 cutoff on the K6, and compared the proportion of K6 scores ≥13 and ≤12 in each risk factor including demographic information, socioeconomic variables, and disaster-related variables. We also performed bivariate analyses between mental health status and possible risk factors using the chi-square test. Furthermore, we performed multivariate regression analysis using modified Poisson regression models. Results The median K6 score was 5 (interquartile range: 1–10). The number of psychological distress was 8,717 (14.6%). We found that significant differences in the prevalence of psychological distress by almost all survey items, including disaster-related risk factors, most of which were also associated with increased Prevalence ratios (PRs). Additionally, we found that psychological distress in each evacuation zone was significantly positively associated with the radiation levels in their environment (r = 0.768, p = 0.002). Conclusion The earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear accident likely caused severe psychological distress among residents in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture. The close association between psychological distress and the radiation levels shows that the nuclear accident seriously influenced the mental health of the residents, which might be exacerbated by increased risk perception. To provide prompt and appropriate support, continued psychosocial intervention for evacuees is strongly recommended. PMID:27391446

Extrinsic and intrinsic factors associated with non-contact injury in adult pace bowlers: a systematic review protocol.

PubMed

Olivier, Benita; Stewart, Aimee; Taljaard, Tracy; Burger, Elaine; Brukner, Peter; Orchard, John; Gray, Janine; Botha, Nadine; Mckinon, Warrick

2015-01-01

Review question: which extrinsic and intrinsic factors are associated with non-contact injury in adult cricket pace bowlers?Review objective: the objective of this review is to determine the extrinsic and intrinsic factors associated with non-contact injury in adult pace bowlers. Cricket is generally considered to be a sport of low injury risk compared to other sports. In cricket, the pace bowler strives towards the adoption of a bowling technique with a relatively low injury threat that will, at the same time, allow for a fast (>120km/hr) and accurate delivery to the opposing batsman. However, of all the various roles of the cricket player, the pace bowler has the highest risk of injury, especially for low back and lower limb (lower quarter) injury. The reason for this high risk of injury is due to the inherent, high-load biomechanical nature of the pace bowling action. The high prevalence of injury amongst pace bowlers highlights the great need for research into factors associated with injury.Both extrinsic and intrinsic factors work in combination to predispose the bowler to injury. Extrinsic or environment-related factors include bowling workload (the numbers of overs a bowler bowls), player position (first, second or third change) and time of play (morning or afternoon). A high bowling workload has been linked with a higher risk of injury in pace bowlers. Foster et al. found in an observational study that bowling too many overs in a single spell or bowling too many spells may increase the pace bowler's risk of sustaining a low back injury. In another observational study, Dennis et al. found that an exceptionally high bowling workload as well as an uncommonly low bowling workload is associated with injury risk. The major extrinsic factors for bowling injury identified by Orchard et al. are a high number of match overs bowled in the previous week, number of days of play and bowling second (batting first) in a match. Extrinsic factors are known to make the bowler more susceptible to injury, especially in the presence of intrinsic factors.Intrinsic, or person-related, factors include muscle strength, flexibility, balance and biomechanics. Intrinsic, strength-related factors, such as shoulder depression, horizontal flexion strength for the preferred limb and quadriceps power in the non-preferred limb are also significantly related to back injuries in fast bowlers. Both upper limb and lower limb-related intrinsic factors are known to be associated with injury. A prospective study by Dennis et al. aimed to identify the risk factors for injury in adolescent cricket fast bowlers. Their findings concluded that bowlers with a hip internal rotation range of motion of ≤30° on the leg ipsilateral to the bowling arm were at a significantly reduced risk of injury compared with bowlers with >40° of rotation. Moreover, bowlers with ankle dorsiflexion lunge of 12.1-14.0 cm on the leg contralateral to the bowling arm were at a significantly increased risk of injury compared to bowlers with a lunge of >14 cm. Reduced hamstring flexibility was also associated with lumbar disc abnormalities. Bowling-related biomechanical risk factors for injury have been established such as trunk rotation of the shoulders by to a more side-on position during the delivery stride. Portus et al. also reported that shoulder counter-rotation was significantly higher in bowlers who reported lumbar spine stress fractures, while the non-trunk injured group displayed a more flexed knee at front foot contact and ball release. In addition to the above kinematic risk factors, there are high ground reaction forces associated with the power phase - between the front foot placement and ball release components of the pace bowling action. A combination of kinematic bowling related issues as described above and high ground reaction forces may predispose the bowler to injury.Morton et al. conducted a systematic review on pace bowlers between the ages of 13.7 and 22.5 years on risk factors and successful interventions for cricket-related low back pain. Young cricketers between the ages of 13 and 18 years are different to adults in terms of their physiology which impacts on their predisposition to injury and phases of healing. Young cricketers may differ from an adult population in that young pace bowlers who sustain injuries during their bowling career may have given up on the sport by the time they approach adulthood, and the composition of the adult pace bowler population group is therefore affected by natural selection which may cause this group to differ from the original population. Caution is thus advised when generalizing findings from this young population group to adult pace bowlers which emphasizes the need for studies amongst adult pace bowlers. Furthermore, the review by Morton et al. included articles that specifically investigated factors associated with low back pain. However, due to the interconnectedness between the spine and the lower limbs, kinematic variables affecting the spine will also affect the load placed on the lower limbs with subsequent risk of injury. The interdependent mechanical interactions in a linked segment system such as the system of motion of the low back can be caused by movement coordination patterns in other body segments. The systematic review by Morton et al. only included intrinsic factors while the proposed review will also look at extrinsic factors. Therefore, the primary objective of this review is to determine extrinsic and intrinsic factors associated with non-contact injury in adult pace bowlers.

76 FR 81998 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-29

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY..., ``Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA--Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Submit comments by March 01... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

Socioeconomic determinants of childhood overweight and obesity in China: the long arm of institutional power

PubMed Central

Fu, Qiang; George, Linda K.

2018-01-01

Abstract Previous studies have widely reported that the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and childhood overweight and obesity in China is significant and positive, which lends little support to the fundamental-cause perspective. Using multiple waves (1997, 2000, 2004 and 2006) of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) (N = 2,556, 2,063, 1,431 and 1,242, respectively) and continuous BMI cut-points obtained from a polynomial method, (mixed-effect) logistic regression analyses show that parental state-sector employment, an important, yet overlooked, indicator of political power during the market transformation has changed from a risk factor for childhood overweight/obesity in 1997 to a protective factor for childhood overweight/obesity in 2006. Results from quantile regression analyses generate the same conclusions and demonstrate that the protective effect of parental state sector employment at high percentiles of BMI is robust under different estimation strategies. By bridging the fundamental causes perspective and theories of market transformation, this research not only documents the effect of political power on childhood overweight/obesity but also calls for the use of multifaceted, culturally-relevant stratification measures in testing the fundamental cause perspective across time and space. PMID:26178452

Lessons from Fukushima: Latest Findings of Thyroid Cancer After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Yamashita, Shunichi; Suzuki, Shinichi; Suzuki, Satoru; Shimura, Hiroki; Saenko, Vladimir

2018-01-01

The increase in risk for late-onset thyroid cancer due to radiation exposure is a potential health effect after a nuclear power plant accident mainly due to the release of radioiodine in fallout. The risk is particularly elevated in those exposed during infancy and adolescence. To estimate the possibility and extent of thyroid cancer occurrence after exposure, it is of utmost importance to collect and analyze epidemiological information providing the basis for evaluation of radiation risk, and to consider radiobiology and molecular genetics. In this regard, the dose-response of cancer risk, temporal changes in the rates of thyroid cancer, its histopathological types and subtypes, and frequency of underlying genetic abnormalities are important. At present, however, it is difficult or impossible to distinguish radiation-induced thyroid cancer from spontaneous/sporadic thyroid cancer because molecular radiation signatures, biomarkers of radiation exposure, or genetic factors specific to radiation-induced cancer have not yet been identified. The large-scale ultrasound screening in Fukushima Prefecture of Japan demonstrated a high detection rate of thyroid cancer in young individuals, revealing 116 and 71 cases in the first and second rounds, respectively, among the same cohort of approximately 300,000 subjects. These findings raised concerns among residents and the public that it might be due to putative exposure to radiation from the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. This review summarizes evaluations by international organizations and reviews scientific publications by the authors and others on childhood thyroid cancer, especially those relevant to radiation, including basic studies on molecular mechanisms of thyroid carcinogenesis. Clinical details are also provided on surgical cases in Fukushima Prefecture, and the effect of thyroid ultrasound screening is discussed. Correct understanding of issues relating to radiation and the thyroid are essential for interpretation of thyroid cancer in Fukushima.

Research on the Application of Risk-based Inspection for the Boiler System in Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Henan

2017-12-01

Power plant boiler is one of the three main equipment of coal-fired power plants, is very tall to the requirement of the safe and stable operation, in a significant role in the whole system of thermal power generation, a risk-based inspection is a kind of pursuit of security and economy of unified system management idea and method, can effectively evaluate equipment risk and reduce the operational cost.

Cultural factors influencing Japanese nurses' assertive communication: Part 2 - hierarchy and power.

PubMed

Omura, Mieko; Stone, Teresa E; Levett-Jones, Tracy

2018-03-23

Hierarchy and power characterize health-care relationships around the world, constituting a barrier to assertive communication and a risk to patient safety. This issue is more problematic and complex in countries such as Japan, where deep-seated cultural values related to hierarchy and power persist. The current paper is the second of two that present the findings from a study exploring Japanese nurses' views and experiences of how cultural values impact assertive communication for health-care professionals. We conducted semistructured interviews with 23 registered nurses, following which data were analyzed using directed content analysis. Two overarching themes emerged from the analysis: hierarchy/power and collectivism. In the present study, we focus on cultural values related to hierarchy and power, including differences in professional status, gender imbalance, seniority/generation gap, bullying, and humility/modesty. The findings from our research provide meaningful insights into how Japanese cultural values influence and constrain nurses' communication and speaking up behaviors, and can be used to inform educational programs designed to teach assertiveness skills. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The InterAct Project: An Examination of the Interaction of Genetic and Lifestyle Factors on the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in the EPIC Study

PubMed Central

Langenberg, C; Sharp, S; Forouhi, NG; Franks, P; Schulze, MB; Kerrison, N; Ekelund, U; Barroso, I; Panico, S; Tormo, M; Spranger, J; Griffin, S; van der Schouw, YT; Amiano, P; Ardanaz, E; Arriola, L; Balkau, B; Barricarte, A; Beulens, JWJ; Boeing, H; Bueno-de-Mesquita, HB; Buijsse, BB; Chirlaque Lopez, MD; Clavel-Chapelon, F; Crowe, FL; de Lauzon-Guillan, B; Deloukas, P; Dorronsoro, M; Drogan, DD; Froguel, P; Gonzalez, C; Grioni, S; Groop, L; Groves, C; Hainaut, P; Halkjaer, J; Hallmans, G; Hansen, T; Kaaks, R; Key, TJ; Khaw, K; Koulman, A; Mattiello, A; Navarro, C; Nilsson, P; Norat, T; Overvad, K; Palla, L; Palli, D; Pedersen, O; Peeters, PH; Quirós, JR; Ramachandran, A; Rodriguez-Suarez, L; Rolandsson, O; Romaguera, D; Romieu, I; Sacerdote, C; Sánchez, M; Sandbaek, A; Slimani, N; Sluijs, I; Spijkerman, AMW; Teucher, B; Tjonneland, A; Tumino, R; van der A, DL; Verschuren, WMM; Tuomilehto, J; Feskens, E; McCarthy, M; Riboli, E; Wareham, NJ

2014-01-01

Background Studying gene-lifestyle interaction may help to identify lifestyle factors that modify genetic susceptibility and uncover genetic loci exerting important subgroup effects. Adequately powered studies with prospective, unbiased, standardised assessment of key behavioural factors for gene-lifestyle studies are lacking. Objective To establish a type 2 diabetes case-cohort study designed to investigate how genetic and potentially modifiable lifestyle and behavioral factors, particularly diet and physical activity, interact in their influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Methods Funded by the Sixth European Framework Programme, InterAct consortium partners ascertained and verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurring in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts between 1991 and 2007 from 8 of the 10 EPIC countries. A pragmatic, high sensitivity approach was used for case ascertainment including multiple sources at each EPIC centre, followed by diagnostic verification. Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analyses were used to investigate differences in diabetes incidence by age and sex. Results A total of 12,403 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred during 3.99 million person-years of follow-up of 340,234 EPIC participants eligible for InterAct. We defined a centre stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals for comparative analyses. Individuals with incident diabetes that were randomly selected into the subcohort (n=778) were included as cases in the analyses. All prevalent diabetes cases were excluded from the study. InterAct cases were followed-up for an average of 6.9 years, 49.7% were men. Mean baseline age and age at diagnosis were 55.6 and 62.5 years, mean BMI and waist were 29.4 kg/m2 and 102.7 cm in men, and 30.1 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm in women, respectively. Risk of type 2 diabetes increased linearly with age, with an overall hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.56 (1.48; 1.64) for a 10 year age difference, adjusted for sex. A male excess in the risk of incident diabetes was consistently observed across all countries, with a pooled hazard ratio of 1.51 (1.39; 1.64), adjusted for age. Conclusions InterAct is a large, well powered, prospective study which will inform our understanding of the interplay between genes and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes development. PMID:21717116

Risk measures for power failures in transmission systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassidy, Alex; Feinstein, Zachary; Nehorai, Arye

2016-11-01

We present a novel framework for evaluating the risk of failures in power transmission systems. We use the concept of systemic risk measures from the financial mathematics literature with models of power system failures in order to quantify the risk of the entire power system for design and comparative purposes. The proposed risk measures provide the collection of capacity vectors for the components in the system that lead to acceptable outcomes. Keys to the formulation of our measures of risk are two elements: a model of system behavior that provides the (distribution of) outcomes based on component capacities and an acceptability criterion that determines whether a (random) outcome is acceptable from an aggregated point of view. We examine the effects of altering the line capacities on energy not served under a variety of networks, flow manipulation methods, load shedding schemes, and load profiles using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of these schemes, measured by the required line capacity. These results provide more complete descriptions of the risks of power failures than the previous, one-dimensional metrics.

Optical reprogramming of human somatic cells using ultrashort Bessel-shaped near-infrared femtosecond laser pulses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchugonova, Aisada; Breunig, Hans Georg; Batista, Ana; König, Karsten

2015-11-01

We report a virus-free optical approach to human cell reprogramming into induced pluripotent stem cells with low-power nanoporation using ultrashort Bessel-shaped laser pulses. Picojoule near-infrared sub-20 fs laser pulses at a high 85 MHz repetition frequency are employed to generate transient nanopores in the membrane of dermal fibroblasts for the introduction of four transcription factors to induce the reprogramming process. In contrast to conventional approaches which utilize retro- or lentiviruses to deliver genes or transcription factors into the host genome, the laser method is virus-free; hence, the risk of virus-induced cancer generation limiting clinical application is avoided.

The Challenge of Communicating Flood Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthew, R.

2015-12-01

Worldwide, natural hazard risks, and especially flood risk, are increasing dramatically as populations grow, infrastructure deteriorates, and climate change worsens. Street level modeling technologies may help decision makers and the general public understand risk and explore options for building resilience. But there are challenges in linking powerful visualization technologies to people in ways that they trust, support and can use. Technology adoption depends on a host of social and psychological factors—for example, how have past experiences shaped perceptions? Where do people currently turn for information? Who do they trust? Who do they see as responsible for implementing response and resilience measures? What do people think about climate change and sea level rise? What are the values that will motivate them to act? The answers vary from place to place and group to group. Visualization technologies that are responsive to this type of information may be most effective. Through household level survey data collected at sites in California and Mexico, we identify factors that may help in designing effective flood risk communication tools.

“What makes you think you have special privileges because you're a police officer?” A qualitative exploration of police's role in the risk environment of female sex workers

PubMed Central

Sherman, Susan G.; Footer, Katherine; Illangasekare, Samantha; Clark, Erin; Pearson, Erin; Decker, Michele R.

2014-01-01

Worldwide, female sex workers have high rates of HIV. Many factors that escalate their risk lay outside of their control, name in the environments in which they practice sex. An understudied yet powerful risk environment is that of police. We qualitatively explored sex workers’ interactions with police in their personal and professional lives. Thirty-five female sex workers were purposively sampled in Baltimore, MD in 2012. Women discussed experiences of police verbal harassment, sexual exploitation, extortion, and a lack of police responsiveness to 911 calls in emergencies, largely partner violence. Women's mistrust of police was often developed at an early age, and further reinforced by interactions in their personal and professional lives. The study underscores the need for targeting police in reducing sex workers’ HIV and other risks. The case for police's role in generating risk is evident, which could be addressed through structural interventions targeting both police practices and policies. PMID:25360822

"What makes you think you have special privileges because you are a police officer?" A qualitative exploration of police's role in the risk environment of female sex workers.

PubMed

Sherman, Susan G; Footer, Katherine; Illangasekare, Samantha; Clark, Erin; Pearson, Erin; Decker, Michele R

2015-01-01

Worldwide, female sex workers (FSWs) have high rates of HIV. Many factors that escalate their risk lay outside of their control, primarily in the environments in which they practice sex. An understudied yet powerful risk environment is that of police. We qualitatively explored sex workers' interactions with police in their personal and professional lives. Thirty-five FSWs were purposively sampled in Baltimore, MD, in 2012. Women discussed experiences of police verbal harassment, sexual exploitation, extortion, and a lack of police responsiveness to 911 calls in emergencies, largely partner violence. Women's mistrust of police was often developed at an early age and further reinforced by interactions in their personal and professional lives. The study underscores the need for targeting police in reducing sex workers' HIV and other risks. The case for police's role in generating risk is evident, which could be addressed through structural interventions targeting both police practices and policies.

Risk of leukaemia and residential exposure to air pollution in an industrial area in Northern Italy: a case-control study.

PubMed

Parodi, Stefano; Santi, Irene; Casella, Claudia; Puppo, Antonella; Montanaro, Fabio; Fontana, Vincenzo; Pescetto, Massimiliano; Stagnaro, Emanuele

2015-01-01

Leukaemia risk in adult populations exposed to environmental air pollution is poorly investigated. We have carried out a population-based case-control study in an area that included a fossil fuel power plant, a coke oven and two big chemical industries. Information on residential history and several risk factors for leukaemia was obtained from 164 cases, diagnosed between 2002 and 2005, and 279 controls. A higher risk for subjects residing in polluted areas was observed, but statistical significance was not reached (adjusted OR = 1.11 and 1.56 for subjects living in moderately and in heavily polluted zones, respectively, p = 0.190). Results suggest a possible aetiological role of residential air pollution from industrial sites on the risk of developing leukaemia in adult populations. However, the proportion of eligible subjects excluded from the study and the lack of any measure of air pollution prevent definitive conclusions from being drawn.

Measuring Men's Gender Norms and Gender Role Conflict/Stress in a High HIV-Prevalence South African Setting.

PubMed

Gottert, Ann; Barrington, Clare; Pettifor, Audrey; McNaughton-Reyes, Heath Luz; Maman, Suzanne; MacPhail, Catherine; Kahn, Kathleen; Selin, Amanda; Twine, Rhian; Lippman, Sheri A

2016-08-01

Gender norms and gender role conflict/stress may influence HIV risk behaviors among men; however scales measuring these constructs need further development and evaluation in African settings. We conducted exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses to evaluate the Gender Equitable Men's Scale (GEMS) and the Gender Role Conflict/Stress (GRC/S) scale among 581 men in rural northeast South Africa. The final 17-item GEMS was unidimensional, with adequate model fit and reliability (alpha = 0.79). Factor loadings were low (0.2-0.3) for items related to violence and sexual relationships. The final 24-item GRC/S scale was multidimensional with four factors: Success, power, competition; Subordination to women; Restrictive emotionality; and Sexual prowess. The scale had adequate model fit and good reliability (alpha = 0.83). While GEMS is a good measure of inequitable gender norms, new or revised scale items may need to be explored in the South African context. Adding the GRC/S scale to capture men's strain related to gender roles could provide important insights into men's risk behaviors.

Sexual harassment at work in the United States.

PubMed

Das, Aniruddha

2009-12-01

Using nationally representative data from the 1992 U.S. National Health and Social Life Survey, this study queried the prevalence and risk factors of lifetime workplace sexual harassment among both women and men. Among those aged 18-60 reporting ever having worked, 41% of women (CI, 37-44) reported any workplace harassment over their lifetime, with men's harassment prevalence significantly lower, at 32% (CI, 29-35). In the youngest age groups (those in their 20s or younger), there was no statistically significant difference between women's and men's harassment prevalence. Multivariate analysis of risk factors suggested that, in contrast to much of the harassment literature, among both genders workplace harassment seemed to have at least as much to do with a system of "routine activities" mechanisms-a victim's conscious or unconscious sexual signaling, more exposure to potential harassers, and a perpetrator's lower cost of harassment-as with unobserved differences in power between victim and perpetrator. Strikingly, both women's and men's harassment was strongly linked to markers of sexualization, whether early developmental factors or behavioral patterns in adulthood-a mechanism insufficiently emphasized in the harassment literature.

Genetic and Environmental Factors Associated with Cannabis Involvement

PubMed Central

Bogdan, Ryan; Winstone, Jonathan MA; Agrawal, Arpana

2016-01-01

Approximately 50-70% of the variation in cannabis use and use disorders can be attributed to heritable factors. For cannabis use, the remaining variance can be parsed in to familial and person-specific environmental factors while for use disorders, only the latter contribute. While numerous candidate gene studies have identified the role of common variation influencing liability to cannabis involvement, replication has been elusive. To date, no genomewide association study has been sufficiently powered to identify significant loci. Despite this, studies adopting polygenic techniques and integrating genetic variation with neural phenotypes and measures of environmental risk, such as childhood adversity, are providing promising new leads. It is likely that the small effect sizes associated with variants related to cannabis involvement will only be robustly identified in substantially larger samples. Results of such large-scale efforts will provide valuable single variant targets for translational research in neurogenetic, pharmacogenetic and non-human animal models as well as polygenic risk indices that can be used to explore a host of other genetic hypotheses related to cannabis use and misuse. PMID:27642547

[Oxygen peak consumption is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk than handgrip strength in older Chilean women].

PubMed

Farías-Valenzuela, Claudio; Pérez-Luco, Cristian; Ramírez-Campillo, Rodrigo; Álvarez, Cristian; Castro-Sepúlveda, Mauricio

Handgrip strength (HS) and peak oxygen consumption (Vo2peak) are powerful predictors of cardiovascular risk, although it is unknown which of the two variables is the better predictor. The objective of the following study was to relate HS and Vo2peak to cardiovascular risk markers in older Chilean women. Physically active adult women (n=51; age, 69±4.7years) participated in this study. The HS and Vo2peak were evaluated and related to the anthropometric variables of body mass, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist ratio (WR), and waist height ratio (WHR), as well as with the cardiovascular variables systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) and cardiac recovery in one minute (RHR1). A multilinear regression model was used for the analysis of the associated variables (P<.05). The cardiovascular risk markers associated (P<.05) with the handgrip strength of the dominant limb (HS DL ) were body mass, BMI, WR, and WHR. The handgrip strength of the non-dominant limb (HS NDL ) was associated with body mass. Vo2peak was associated with body mass, BMI, HC and RHR1. The multilinear regression model showed a value of r=0.43 in HS DL , r=0.39 in HS NDL and r=0.69 in peak Vo2. Although HS and Vo2peak were related to cardiovascular risk markers, Vo2peak offers greater associative power with these cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2017 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources, Perceived Risks, and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power.

PubMed

Vainio, Annukka; Paloniemi, Riikka; Varho, Vilja

2017-03-01

We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO 2 emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Space Nuclear Power Public and Stakeholder Risk Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, Sandra M.; Sklar, Maria

2005-01-01

The 1986 Challenger accident coupled with the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident increased public concern about the safety of spacecraft using nuclear technology. While three nuclear powered spacecraft had been launched before 1986 with little public interest, future nuclear powered missions would see significantly more public concern and require NASA to increase its efforts to communicate mission risks to the public. In 1987 a separate risk communication area within the Launch Approval Planning Group of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory was created to address public concern about the health, environmental, and safety risks of NASA missions. The lessons learned from the risk communication strategies developed for the nuclear powered Galileo, Ulysses, and Cassini missions are reviewed in this paper and recommendations are given as to how these lessons can be applied to future NASA missions that may use nuclear power systems and other potentially controversial NASA missions.

Hamstring and Quadriceps Isokinetic Strength Deficits Are Weak Risk Factors for Hamstring Strain Injuries: A 4-Year Cohort Study.

PubMed

van Dyk, Nicol; Bahr, Roald; Whiteley, Rodney; Tol, Johannes L; Kumar, Bhavesh D; Hamilton, Bruce; Farooq, Abdulaziz; Witvrouw, Erik

2016-07-01

A hamstring strain injury (HSI) has become the most common noncontact injury in soccer. Isokinetic muscle strength deficits are considered a risk factor for HSIs. However, underpowered studies with small sample sizes unable to determine small associations have led to inconclusive results regarding the role of isokinetic strength and strength testing in HSIs. To examine whether differences in isokinetic strength measures of knee flexion and extension represent risk factors for hamstring injuries in a large cohort of professional soccer players in an adequately powered study design. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. A total of 614 professional soccer players from 14 teams underwent isokinetic strength testing during preseason screening. Testing consisted of concentric knee flexion and extension at 60 deg/s and 300 deg/s and eccentric knee extension at 60 deg/s. A clustered multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with the risk of HSIs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to determine sensitivity and specificity. Of the 614 players, 190 suffered an HSI during the 4 seasons. Quadriceps concentric strength at 60 deg/s (odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.03-1.92; P = .03) and hamstring eccentric strength at 60 deg/s (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.01-1.85; P = .04) adjusted for bodyweight were independently associated with the risk of injuries. The absolute differences between the injured and uninjured players were 6.9 N·m and 9.1 N·m, with small effect sizes (d < 0.2). The ROC analyses showed an area under the curve of 0.54 and 0.56 for quadriceps concentric strength and hamstring eccentric strength, respectively, indicating a failed combined sensitivity and specificity of the 2 strength variables identified in the logistic regression models. This study identified small absolute strength differences and a wide overlap of the absolute strength measurements at the group level. The small associations between lower hamstring eccentric strength and lower quadriceps concentric strength with HSIs can only be considered as weak risk factors. The identification of these risk factors still does not allow the identification of individual players at risk. The use of isokinetic testing to determine the association between strength differences and HSIs is not supported. © 2016 The Author(s).

Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Jaeyoung; Bang, Yejin; Lee, Won Jin

2016-02-01

There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed on studies published up to March 2015 on the association between nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk. The summary standardized incidence ratio (SIR), standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effect model of meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed by study quality. Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis, covering 36 nuclear power stations in 10 countries. Overall, summary estimates showed no significant increased thyroid cancer incidence or mortality among residents living near nuclear power plants (summary SIR=0.98; 95% CI 0.87-1.11, summary SMR=0.80; 95% CI 0.62-1.04). The pooled estimates did not reveal different patterns of risk by gender, exposure definition, or reference population. However, sensitivity analysis by exposure definition showed that living less than 20 km from nuclear power plants was associated with a significant increase in the risk of thyroid cancer in well-designed studies (summary OR=1.75; 95% CI 1.17-2.64). Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well-designed future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound-detected bone erosion is a relapse risk factor after discontinuation of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis whose ultrasound power Doppler synovitis activity and clinical disease activity are well controlled.

PubMed

Kawashiri, Shin-Ya; Fujikawa, Keita; Nishino, Ayako; Okada, Akitomo; Aramaki, Toshiyuki; Shimizu, Toshimasa; Umeda, Masataka; Fukui, Shoichi; Suzuki, Takahisa; Koga, Tomohiro; Iwamoto, Naoki; Ichinose, Kunihiro; Tamai, Mami; Mizokami, Akinari; Nakamura, Hideki; Origuchi, Tomoki; Ueki, Yukitaka; Aoyagi, Kiyoshi; Maeda, Takahiro; Kawakami, Atsushi

2017-05-25

In the present study, we explored the risk factors for relapse after discontinuation of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD) therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) whose ultrasound power Doppler (PD) synovitis activity and clinical disease activity were well controlled. In this observational study in clinical practice, the inclusion criteria were based on ultrasound disease activity and clinical disease activity, set as low or remission (Disease Activity Score in 28 joints based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate <3.2). Ultrasound was performed in 22 joints of bilateral hands at discontinuation for evaluating synovitis severity and presence of bone erosion. Patients with a maximum PD score ≤1 in each joint were enrolled. Forty patients with RA were consecutively recruited (November 2010-March 2015) and discontinued bDMARD therapy. Variables at the initiation and discontinuation of bDMARD therapy that were predictive of relapse during the 12 months after discontinuation were assessed. The median patient age was 54.5 years, and the median disease duration was 3.5 years. Nineteen (47.5%) patients relapsed during the 12 months after the discontinuation of bDMARD therapy. Logistic regression analysis revealed that only the presence of bone erosion detected by ultrasound at discontinuation was predictive of relapse (OR 8.35, 95% CI 1.78-53.2, p = 0.006). No clinical characteristics or serologic biomarkers were significantly different between the relapse and nonrelapse patients. The ultrasound synovitis scores did not differ significantly between the groups. Our findings are the first evidence that ultrasound bone erosion may be a relapse risk factor after the discontinuation of bDMARD therapy in patients with RA whose PD synovitis activity and clinical disease activity are well controlled.

Roles of children and their parents in the reduction of radiation risk after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

PubMed

Fujimura, Maya Sophia; Komasa, Yukako; Kimura, Shinzo; Shibanuma, Akira; Kitamura, Akiko; Jimba, Masamine

2017-01-01

On March 11, 2011, Japan experienced its largest recorded earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0. The resulting tsunami caused massive damage to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant reactors, and the surrounding environment was contaminated with radioactive materials. During this period, some residents were exposed to high levels of radiation (up to 5 millisieverts [mSv]), but since then, many residents have been exposed to low levels of radiation (<1 mSv). This study was conducted to assess the effects of lifestyle and attitude factors on external radiation exposure among Fukushima residents. This community-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in Nihonmatsu City of the Fukushima Prefecture from May to July 2014. The population survey targeted 6,884 children between the ages of 0-15 years, and a personal radiation badge and questionnaire were administered to each of the residences. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the impact of lifestyle and attitude factors on external radiation dose. The study participants (population size [n] = 4,571) had an additional mean radiation dose of 0.65 mSv/year, which is small as compared to the mean radiation dose 6 months after the disaster (1.5 mSv/year), in 2012 (1.5 mSv/year), and in 2013 (1.0 mSv/year). External radiation doses statistically varied by socio-demographic and lifestyle factors. Participants living in wooden residences (p-value<0.001) and within 100 meters of a forest (p = 0.001) had higher radiation exposure. Conversely, participants with a cautious attitude towards radiation had lower radiation exposure (beta [b] = -0.124, p = 0.003). Having a cautious attitude towards radiation and being aware of exposure risks proved to be significant in the reduction of external radiation dose. Therefore, in the event of future radiation disasters, attitudes towards and awareness of radiation should be considered in the reduction of exposure risk and implementation of radiation protection.

Intimate partner violence, relationship power inequity, and incidence of HIV infection in young women in South Africa: a cohort study.

PubMed

Jewkes, Rachel K; Dunkle, Kristin; Nduna, Mzikazi; Shai, Nwabisa

2010-07-03

Cross-sectional studies have shown that intimate partner violence and gender inequity in relationships are associated with increased prevalence of HIV in women. Yet temporal sequence and causality have been questioned, and few HIV prevention programmes address these issues. We assessed whether intimate partner violence and relationship power inequity increase risk of incident HIV infection in South African women. We did a longitudinal analysis of data from a previously published cluster-randomised controlled trial undertaken in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa in 2002-06. 1099 women aged 15-26 years who were HIV negative at baseline and had at least one additional HIV test over 2 years of follow-up were included in the analysis. Gender power equity and intimate partner violence were measured by a sexual relationship power scale and the WHO violence against women instrument, respectively. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of HIV acquisition at 2 years were derived from Poisson models, adjusted for study design and herpes simplex virus type 2 infection, and used to calculate population attributable fractions. 128 women acquired HIV during 2076 person-years of follow-up (incidence 6.2 per 100 person-years). 51 of 325 women with low relationship power equity at baseline acquired HIV (8.5 per 100 person-years) compared with 73 of 704 women with medium or high relationship power equity (5.5 per 100 person-years); adjusted multivariable Poisson model IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.05-2.17, p=0.027. 45 of 253 women who reported more than one episode of intimate partner violence at baseline acquired HIV (9.6 per 100 person-years) compared with 83 of 846 who reported one or no episodes (5.2 per 100 person-years); adjusted multivariable Poisson model IRR 1.51, 1.04-2.21, p=0.032. The population attributable fractions were 13.9% (95% CI 2.0-22.2) for relationship power equity and 11.9% (1.4-19.3) for intimate partner violence. Relationship power inequity and intimate partner violence increase risk of incident HIV infection in young South African women. Policy, interventions, and programmes for HIV prevention must address both of these risk factors and allocate appropriate resources. National Institute of Mental Health and South African Medical Research Council. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

PubMed

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

2013-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

An Overview of Power Capability Requirements for Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Jose M.; Cataldo, Robert L.; Soeder, James F.; Manzo, Michelle A.; Hakimzadeh, Roshanak

2005-01-01

Advanced power is one of the key capabilities that will be needed to achieve NASA's missions of exploration and scientific advancement. Significant gaps exist in advanced power capabilities that are on the critical path to enabling human exploration beyond Earth orbit and advanced robotic exploration of the solar system. Focused studies and investment are needed to answer key development issues for all candidate technologies before down-selection. The viability of candidate power technology alternatives will be a major factor in determining what exploration mission architectures are possible. Achieving the capabilities needed to enable the CEV, Moon, and Mars missions is dependent on adequate funding. Focused investment in advanced power technologies for human and robotic exploration missions is imperative now to reduce risk and to make informed decisions on potential exploration mission decisions beginning in 2008. This investment would begin the long lead-time needed to develop capabilities for human exploration missions in the 2015 to 2030 timeframe. This paper identifies some of the key technologies that will be needed to fill these power capability gaps. Recommendations are offered to address capability gaps in advanced power for Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) power, surface nuclear power systems, surface mobile power systems, high efficiency power systems, and space transportation power systems. These capabilities fill gaps that are on the critical path to enabling robotic and human exploration missions. The recommendations address the following critical technology areas: Energy Conversion, Energy Storage, and Power Management and Distribution.

Prediction of near-term breast cancer risk using a Bayesian belief network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bin; Ramalingam, Pandiyarajan; Hariharan, Harishwaran; Leader, Joseph K.; Gur, David

2013-03-01

Accurately predicting near-term breast cancer risk is an important prerequisite for establishing an optimal personalized breast cancer screening paradigm. In previous studies, we investigated and tested the feasibility of developing a unique near-term breast cancer risk prediction model based on a new risk factor associated with bilateral mammographic density asymmetry between the left and right breasts of a woman using a single feature. In this study we developed a multi-feature based Bayesian belief network (BBN) that combines bilateral mammographic density asymmetry with three other popular risk factors, namely (1) age, (2) family history, and (3) average breast density, to further increase the discriminatory power of our cancer risk model. A dataset involving "prior" negative mammography examinations of 348 women was used in the study. Among these women, 174 had breast cancer detected and verified in the next sequential screening examinations, and 174 remained negative (cancer-free). A BBN was applied to predict the risk of each woman having cancer detected six to 18 months later following the negative screening mammography. The prediction results were compared with those using single features. The prediction accuracy was significantly increased when using the BBN. The area under the ROC curve increased from an AUC=0.70 to 0.84 (p<0.01), while the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) also increased from a PPV=0.61 to 0.78 and an NPV=0.65 to 0.75, respectively. This study demonstrates that a multi-feature based BBN can more accurately predict the near-term breast cancer risk than with a single feature.

Individualized Risk Model for Venous Thromboembolism After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Parvizi, Javad; Huang, Ronald; Rezapoor, Maryam; Bagheri, Behrad; Maltenfort, Mitchell G

2016-09-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is a potentially fatal complication. Currently, a standard protocol for postoperative VTE prophylaxis is used that makes little distinction between patients at varying risks of VTE. We sought to develop a simple scoring system identifying patients at higher risk for VTE in whom more potent anticoagulation may need to be administered. Utilizing the National Inpatient Sample data, 1,721,806 patients undergoing TJA were identified, among whom 15,775 (0.9%) developed VTE after index arthroplasty. Among the cohort, all known potential risk factors for VTE were assessed. An initial logistic regression model using potential predictors for VTE was performed. Predictors with little contribution or poor predictive power were pruned from the data, and the model was refit. After pruning of variables that had little to no contribution to VTE risk, using the logistic regression, all independent predictors of VTE after TJA were identified in the data. Relative weights for each factor were determined. Hypercoagulability, metastatic cancer, stroke, sepsis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had some of the highest points. Patients with any of these conditions had risk for postoperative VTE that exceeded the 3% rate. Based on the model, an iOS (iPhone operating system) application was developed (VTEstimator) that could be used to assign patients into low or high risk for VTE after TJA. We believe individualization of VTE prophylaxis after TJA can improve the efficacy of preventing VTE while minimizing untoward risks associated with the administration of anticoagulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NADiA ProsVue prostate-specific antigen slope is an independent prognostic marker for identifying men at reduced risk of clinical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Moul, Judd W; Lilja, Hans; Semmes, O John; Lance, Raymond S; Vessella, Robert L; Fleisher, Martin; Mazzola, Clarisse; Sarno, Mark J; Stevens, Barbara; Klem, Robert E; McDermed, Jonathan E; Triebell, Melissa T; Adams, Thomas H

2012-12-01

To validate the hypothesis that men displaying serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy, measured using a new immuno-polymerase chain reaction diagnostic test (NADiA ProsVue), have a reduced risk of clinical recurrence as determined by positive biopsy, imaging findings, or death from prostate cancer. From 4 clinical sites, we selected a cohort of 304 men who had been followed up for 17.6 years after prostatectomy for clinical recurrence. We assessed the prognostic value of a PSA slope cutpoint of 2.0 pg/mL/mo against established risk factors to identify men at low risk of clinical recurrence using uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The univariate hazard ratio of a PSA slope >2.0 pg/mL/mo was 18.3 (95% confidence interval 10.6-31.8) compared with a slope ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The median disease-free survival interval was 4.8 years vs >10 years in the 2 groups (P <.0001). The multivariate hazard ratio for PSA slope with the covariates of preprostatectomy PSA, pathologic stage, and Gleason score was 9.8 (95% confidence interval 5.4-17.8), an 89.8% risk reduction for men with PSA slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The Gleason score (<7 vs ≥ 7) was the only other significant predictor (hazard ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 2.1-13.8, P = .0004). Clinical recurrence after radical prostatectomy is difficult to predict using established risk factors. We have demonstrated that a NADiA ProsVue PSA slope of ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy is prognostic for a reduced risk of prostate cancer recurrence and adds predictive power to the established risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NADiA® ProsVue™ PSA Slope Is an Independent Prognostic Marker for Identifying Men at Reduced Risk for Clinical Recurrence of Prostate Cancer after Radical Prostatectomy

PubMed Central

Moul, Judd W.; Lilja, Hans; Semmes, O. John; Lance, Raymond S.; Vessella, Robert L.; Fleisher, Martin; Mazzola, Clarisse; Sarno, Mark J.; Stevens, Barbara; Klem, Robert E.; McDermed, Jonathan E.; Triebell, Melissa T.; Adams, Thomas H.

2015-01-01

Objectives To validate the hypothesis that men displaying serum PSA slopes ≤2.0 pg/mL/month postprostatectomy, measured with a new immuno-PCR diagnostic test (NADiA® ProsVue™) were at a reduced risk of clinical recurrence as determined by positive biopsy, imaging or death due to prostate cancer. Methods From 4 clinical sites, we selected a cohort of 304 men followed up to 17.6 years postprostatectomy for clinical recurrence. We assessed the prognostic value of a PSA slope cutpoint of 2.0 pg/mL/month against established risk factors to identify men at very low risk of clinical recurrence using uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results The univariate HR (95% CI) of a PSA slope >2.0 pg/mL/month was 18.3 (10.6–31.8), compared to a slope ≤2.0 pg/mL/month (P <0.0001). Median disease-free survival was 4.8 years versus >10 years in the 2 groups (P <0.0001). Multivariate HR for PSA slope with the covariates of preprostatectomy PSA, pathologic stage and Gleason score was 9.8 (5.4–17.8), an 89.8% risk reduction, for men with PSA slopes ≤2.0 pg/mL/month (P <0.0001). Gleason Score (<7 vs. ≥7) was the only other significant predictor (HR 5.4, 2.1–13.8, P = 0.0004). Conclusions Clinical recurrence following radical prostatectomy is often difficult to predict since established factors do not reliably stratify risk. We demonstrate that a NADiA ProsVue slope ≤2.0 pg/mL/month postprostatectomy is prognostic for reduced risk of prostate cancer recurrence and adds predictive power to established risk factors. PMID:23107099

Partner violence, power, and gender differences in South African adolescents' HIV/sexually transmitted infections risk behaviors.

PubMed

Teitelman, Anne M; Jemmott, John B; Bellamy, Scarlett L; Icard, Larry D; O'Leary, Ann; Heeren, G Anita; Ngwane, Zolani; Ratcliffe, Sarah J

2016-07-01

Low relationship power and victimization by intimate partner violence (IPV) have been linked to HIV risks among adult and adolescent women. This article examines associations of IPV and relationship power with sexual-risk behaviors and whether the associations differ by gender among South African adolescents. Sexual-risk behaviors (multiple partners in past 3 months; condom use at last sex), IPV, and relationship power were collected from 786 sexually experienced adolescents (mean age = 16.9) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, during the 54-month follow-up of a HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk-reduction intervention trial. The data were analyzed with logistic regression models. Adolescent boys were less likely to report condom use at last sex (p = .001) and more likely to report multiple partners (p < .001). A Gender × IPV interaction (p = .002) revealed that as IPV victimization increased, self-reported condom use at last sex decreased among girls, but increased among boys. A Gender × Relationship Power interaction (p = .004) indicated that as relationship power increased, self-reported condom use at last sex increased among girls, but decreased among boys. A Gender × IPV interaction (p = .004) indicated that as IPV victimization increased, self-reports of having multiple partners increased among boys, but not among girls. As relationship power increased, self-reports of having multiple partners decreased irrespective of gender. HIV risk-reduction interventions and policies should address gender differences in sexual-risk consequences of IPV and relationship power among adolescents and promote gender equity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).