Clinical global assessment of nutritional status as predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease patients

PubMed Central

Dai, Lu; Mukai, Hideyuki; Lindholm, Bengt; Heimbürger, Olof; Barany, Peter; Stenvinkel, Peter

2017-01-01

Background The value of subjective global assessment (SGA) as nutritional assessor of protein-energy wasting (PEWSGA) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients depends on its mortality predictive capacity. We investigated associations of PEWSGA with markers of nutritional status and all-cause mortality in CKD patients. Methods In 1031 (732 CKD1-5 non-dialysis and 299 dialysis) patients, SGA and body (BMI), lean (LBMI) and fat (FBMI) body mass indices, % handgrip strength (% HGS), serum albumin, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were examined at baseline. The five-year all-cause mortality predictive strength of baseline PEWSGA and during follow-up were investigated. Results PEWSGA was present in 2% of CKD1-2, 16% of CKD3-4, 31% of CKD5 non-dialysis and 44% of dialysis patients. Patients with PEWSGA (n = 320; 31%) had higher hsCRP and lower BMI, LBMI, FBMI, %HGS and serum albumin. But, using receiver operating characteristics-derived cutoffs, these markers could not classify (by kappa statistic) or explain variations of (by multinomial logistic regression analysis) presence of PEWSGA. In generalized linear models, SGA independently predicted mortality after adjustments of multiple confounders (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.11–1.23). Among 323 CKD5 patients who were re-assessed after median 12.6 months, 222 (69%) remained well-nourished, 37 (11%) developed PEWSGA de novo, 40 (12%) improved while 24 (8%) remained with PEWSGA. The latter independently predicted mortality (RR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.13–1.46). Conclusions SGA, a valid assessor of nutritional status, is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality both in CKD non-dialysis and dialysis patients that outperforms non-composite nutritional markers as prognosticator. PMID:29211778

Clinical global assessment of nutritional status as predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease patients.

PubMed

Dai, Lu; Mukai, Hideyuki; Lindholm, Bengt; Heimbürger, Olof; Barany, Peter; Stenvinkel, Peter; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid

2017-01-01

The value of subjective global assessment (SGA) as nutritional assessor of protein-energy wasting (PEWSGA) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients depends on its mortality predictive capacity. We investigated associations of PEWSGA with markers of nutritional status and all-cause mortality in CKD patients. In 1031 (732 CKD1-5 non-dialysis and 299 dialysis) patients, SGA and body (BMI), lean (LBMI) and fat (FBMI) body mass indices, % handgrip strength (% HGS), serum albumin, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were examined at baseline. The five-year all-cause mortality predictive strength of baseline PEWSGA and during follow-up were investigated. PEWSGA was present in 2% of CKD1-2, 16% of CKD3-4, 31% of CKD5 non-dialysis and 44% of dialysis patients. Patients with PEWSGA (n = 320; 31%) had higher hsCRP and lower BMI, LBMI, FBMI, %HGS and serum albumin. But, using receiver operating characteristics-derived cutoffs, these markers could not classify (by kappa statistic) or explain variations of (by multinomial logistic regression analysis) presence of PEWSGA. In generalized linear models, SGA independently predicted mortality after adjustments of multiple confounders (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.11-1.23). Among 323 CKD5 patients who were re-assessed after median 12.6 months, 222 (69%) remained well-nourished, 37 (11%) developed PEWSGA de novo, 40 (12%) improved while 24 (8%) remained with PEWSGA. The latter independently predicted mortality (RR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.13-1.46). SGA, a valid assessor of nutritional status, is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality both in CKD non-dialysis and dialysis patients that outperforms non-composite nutritional markers as prognosticator.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

PubMed

El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

2015-04-01

This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Appetite course over time and the risk of death in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

PubMed

Bossola, Maurizio; Di Stasio, Enrico; Rosa, Fausto; Dominici, Loredana; Antocicco, Manuela; Pazzaglia, Costanza; Aprile, Irene; Tazza, Luigi

2013-08-01

Appetite in patients on chronic hemodialysis (HD) may be constantly very good/good or fair/poor or may fluctuate up and down over time. When constantly fair/poor, appetite has been shown to be associated with older age, more comorbidities, and more hospitalizations; however, it is unknown if it predicts survival. The aim of the present study was to assess appetite monthly for 6 months in patients on chronic HD and to determine if the course of appetite over time predicts mortality. Ninety-two HD patients were evaluated at baseline for appetite, nutritional and inflammatory markers, comorbid conditions, and Charlson's comorbidity index. Appetite assessment was repeated monthly for 6 consecutive months. Survival in relation with the course of appetite over time was determined. Appetite was constantly very good/good in 45 patients (Group 1), fair/poor/very poor in 30 (Group 2), and fluctuated in 17 (Group 3). Twenty-seven (29.3 %) patients died after a mean period of 28 ± 13 months. Overall, the mean survival time was 42.1 ± 1.2 months. For Groups 1, 2, and 3, the mean survival time was 46.1 ± 0.92, 37.9 ± 2.5, and 39.1 ± 3.7 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). After multivariate logistic regression analysis, the course of appetite over time was not found to be an independent risk factor for mortality. The course of appetite over time does not seem to predict mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis. Considering that the study included a relatively small number of patients, larger similar studies are desirable.

Comparative Evaluation of Four Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator for Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A

2016-11-01

Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Associations between Soluble Receptor for Advanced Glycation End Products (sRAGE) and S100A12 (EN-RAGE) with Mortality in Long-term Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Jung, Eul Sik; Chung, Wookyung; Kim, Ae Jin; Ro, Han; Chang, Jae Hyun; Lee, Hyun Hee; Jung, Ji Yong

2017-01-01

Hemodialysis (HD) patients experience vascular calcification, ultimately leading to high mortality rates. Previously, we reported associations between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGEs) and extracellular newly identified RAGE-binding protein S100A12 (EN-RAGE) and vascular calcification. Here, we extended our observations, investigating whether these biomarkers may be useful for predicting cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in these subjects. Thus, we evaluated the relationship between sRAGE and S100A12 and mortality in long-term HD patients. This was a prospective observational cohort study in 199 HD patients from an extended analysis of our previous study. Plasma sRAGE, S100A12, comorbidities, and other traditional risk factors were investigated. The cumulative incidences for death using Cox proportional hazards regression were evaluated in multivariable analyses. The observation period was 44 months. During the observation period, 27 (13.6%) patients died. Univariate analysis demonstrated that S100A12 was correlated with diabetes (P = 0.040) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (P = 0.006). In multivariable analyses, plasma sRAGE (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.155; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.612-2.183; P = 0.656) and S100A12 (HR = 0.960; 95% CI = 0.566-1.630; P = 0.881) were not associated with mortality in HD patients, although traditional predictors of mortality, including age, history of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and serum levels of albumin and hsCRP were related to mortality. Powerful predictors of mortality were age, CVD, and albumin levels. Plasma sRAGE and S100A12 may be weak surrogate markers for predicting all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD, although S100A12 was partly related to diabetes and inflammation.

Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

PubMed

Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

2006-12-01

To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, p<0.05). The P-POSSUM algorithm overestimates the risk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

External Validation of a risk stratification model to assist shared decision making for patients starting renal replacement therapy.

PubMed

Peeters, Patrick; Van Biesen, Wim; Veys, Nic; Lemahieu, Wim; De Moor, Bart; De Meester, Johan

2016-04-07

Shared decision making is nowadays acknowledged as an essential step when deciding on starting renal replacement therapy. Valid risk stratification of prognosis is, besides discussing quality of life, crucial in this regard. We intended to validate a recently published risk stratification model in a large cohort of incident patients starting renal replacement therapy in Flanders. During 3 years (2001-2003), the data set collected for the Nederlandstalige Belgische Vereniging voor Nefrologie (NBVN) registry was expanded with parameters of comorbidity. For all incident patients, the abbreviated REIN score(aREIN), being the REIN score without the parameter "mobility", was calculated, and prognostication of mortality at 3, 6 and 12 month after start of renal replacement therapy (RRT) was evaluated. Three thousand four hundred seventy-two patients started RRT in Flanders during the observation period (mean age 67.6 ± 14.3, 56.7 % men, 33.6 % diabetes). The mean aREIN score was 4.1 ± 2.8, and 56.8, 23.1, 12.6 and 7.4 % of patients had a score of ≤4, 5-6, 7-8 or ≥9 respectively. Mortality at 3, 6 and 12 months was 8.6, 14.1 and 19.6 % in the overall and 13.2, 21.5 and 31.9 % in the group with age >75 respectively. In RoC analysis, the aREIN score had an AUC of 0.74 for prediction of survival at 3, 6 and 12 months. There was an incremental increase in mortality with the aREIN score from 5.6 to 45.8 % mortality at 6 months for those with a score ≤4 or ≥9 respectively. The aREIN score is a useful tool to predict short term prognosis of patients starting renal replacement therapy as based on comorbidity and age, and delivers meaningful discrimination between low and high risk populations. As such, it can be a useful instrument to be incorporated in shared decision making on whether or not start of dialysis is worthwhile.

Risk of 12-month mortality among hospital inpatients using the surprise question and SPICT criteria: a prospective study.

PubMed

Mudge, Alison M; Douglas, Carol; Sansome, Xanthe; Tresillian, Michael; Murray, Stephen; Finnigan, Simon; Blaber, Cheryl Ruth

2018-06-01

People with serious life-limiting disease benefit from advance care planning, but require active identification. This study applied the Gold Standards Framework Proactive Identification Guidance (GSF-PIG) to a general hospital population to describe high-risk patients and explore prognostic performance for 12-month mortality. Prospective cohort study conducted in a metropolitan teaching hospital in Australia. Hospital inpatients on a single day aged 18 years and older were eligible, excluding maternity and neonatal, mental health and day treatment patients. Data sources included medical record and structured questions for medical and nursing staff. High-risk was predefined as positive response to the surprise question (SQ) plus two or more SPICT indicators of general deterioration. Descriptive variables included demographics, frailty and functional measures, treating team, advance care planning documentation and hospital utilisation. Primary outcome for prognostic performance was 12-month mortality. We identified 540 eligible inpatients on the study day and 513 had complete data (mean age 60, 54% male, 30% living alone, 19% elective admissions). Of these, 191 (37%) were high-risk; they were older, frailer, more dependent and had been in hospital longer than low-risk participants. Within 12 months, 92 participants (18%) died (72/191(38%) high-risk versus 20/322(6%) low-risk, P<0.001), providing sensitivity 78%, specificity 72%, positive predictive value 38% and negative predictive value 94%. SQ alone provided higher sensitivity, adding advanced disease indicators improved specificity. The GSF-PIG approach identified a large minority of hospital inpatients who might benefit from advance care planning. Future studies are needed to investigate the feasibility, cost and impact of screening in hospitals. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Machine Learning Algorithm Predicts Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Outcomes: Lessons From the COMPANION Trial.

PubMed

Kalscheur, Matthew M; Kipp, Ryan T; Tattersall, Matthew C; Mei, Chaoqun; Buhr, Kevin A; DeMets, David L; Field, Michael E; Eckhardt, Lee L; Page, C David

2018-01-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces morbidity and mortality in heart failure patients with reduced left ventricular function and intraventricular conduction delay. However, individual outcomes vary significantly. This study sought to use a machine learning algorithm to develop a model to predict outcomes after CRT. Models were developed with machine learning algorithms to predict all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization at 12 months post-CRT in the COMPANION trial (Comparison of Medical Therapy, Pacing, and Defibrillation in Heart Failure). The best performing model was developed with the random forest algorithm. The ability of this model to predict all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization and all-cause mortality alone was compared with discrimination obtained using a combination of bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration. In the 595 patients with CRT-defibrillator in the COMPANION trial, 105 deaths occurred (median follow-up, 15.7 months). The survival difference across subgroups differentiated by bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration did not reach significance ( P =0.08). The random forest model produced quartiles of patients with an 8-fold difference in survival between those with the highest and lowest predicted probability for events (hazard ratio, 7.96; P <0.0001). The model also discriminated the risk of the composite end point of all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization better than subgroups based on bundle branch block morphology and QRS duration. In the COMPANION trial, a machine learning algorithm produced a model that predicted clinical outcomes after CRT. Applied before device implant, this model may better differentiate outcomes over current clinical discriminators and improve shared decision-making with patients. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Association of Elevated High Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T(hs-cTnT) Levels with Hemorrhagic Transformation and 3-Month Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Rheumatic Heart Disease in China

PubMed Central

Xiong, Yao; Liu, Bian; Hao, Zilong; Tao, Wendan; Liu, Ming

2016-01-01

Background and Objective Elevated levels of high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) occur in a substantial proportion of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and can predict poor outcome and mortality after stroke. Whether elevated hs-cTnT levels can also predict hemorrhagic transformation (HT) or prognosis in AIS patients with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains unclear. Methods Data from the Chengdu Stroke Registry on consecutive AIS patients with RHD admitted to West China Hospital within1 month of stroke onset from October 2011 to February 2014 were examined. Clinico-demographic characteristics, HT, functional outcomes and stroke recurrence were compared between patients with elevated hs-cTnT levels(≥14ng/L) and patients with normal hs-cTnT levels (<14ng/L). Results The final analysis involved 84 patients (31 males; mean age, 61.6±12.2years), of whom serum hs-cTnT levels were elevated in 58.3%. Renal impairment was independently associated with elevated hs-cTnT levels (OR 4.184, 95%CI 1.17 to 15.01, P = 0.028), and patients with elevated hs-cTnT levels were at significantly higher risk of HT, 3-month mortality and 3-month disability/mortality (all P≤0.029). After controlling for age, sex, hypertension, renal impairment and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, the risk of HT and 3-month mortality was, respectively, 4.0- and 5.5-fold higher in patients with elevated hs-cTnT levels than in patients with normal hs-cTnT levels. Conclusion Elevated hs-cTnT levels are independently associated with HT and 3-month mortality in AIS patients with RHD. These results with a small cohort should be verified and extended in large studies. PMID:26849554

Association of Elevated High Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T(hs-cTnT) Levels with Hemorrhagic Transformation and 3-Month Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients with Rheumatic Heart Disease in China.

PubMed

Liu, Junfeng; Wang, Deren; Xiong, Yao; Liu, Bian; Hao, Zilong; Tao, Wendan; Liu, Ming

2016-01-01

Elevated levels of high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) occur in a substantial proportion of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and can predict poor outcome and mortality after stroke. Whether elevated hs-cTnT levels can also predict hemorrhagic transformation (HT) or prognosis in AIS patients with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains unclear. Data from the Chengdu Stroke Registry on consecutive AIS patients with RHD admitted to West China Hospital within 1 month of stroke onset from October 2011 to February 2014 were examined. Clinico-demographic characteristics, HT, functional outcomes and stroke recurrence were compared between patients with elevated hs-cTnT levels (≥14 ng/L) and patients with normal hs-cTnT levels (<14 ng/L). The final analysis involved 84 patients (31 males; mean age, 61.6±12.2 years), of whom serum hs-cTnT levels were elevated in 58.3%. Renal impairment was independently associated with elevated hs-cTnT levels (OR 4.184, 95%CI 1.17 to 15.01, P = 0.028), and patients with elevated hs-cTnT levels were at significantly higher risk of HT, 3-month mortality and 3-month disability/mortality (all P≤0.029). After controlling for age, sex, hypertension, renal impairment and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, the risk of HT and 3-month mortality was, respectively, 4.0- and 5.5-fold higher in patients with elevated hs-cTnT levels than in patients with normal hs-cTnT levels. Elevated hs-cTnT levels are independently associated with HT and 3-month mortality in AIS patients with RHD. These results with a small cohort should be verified and extended in large studies.

Clinical prediction of functional outcome after ischemic stroke: the surprising importance of periventricular white matter disease and race.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett; Lindsell, Christopher J; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L; Air, Ellen; Broderick, Joseph; Tsevat, Joel

2009-02-01

We sought to build models that address questions of interest to patients and families by predicting short- and long-term mortality and functional outcome after ischemic stroke, while allowing for risk restratification as comorbid events accumulate. A cohort of 451 ischemic stroke subjects in 1999 were interviewed during hospitalization, at 3 months, and at approximately 4 years. Medical records from the acute hospitalization were abstracted. All hospitalizations for 3 months poststroke were reviewed to ascertain medical and psychiatric comorbidities, which were categorized for analysis. Multivariable models were derived to predict mortality and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 3 months and 4 years. Comorbidities were included as modifiers of the 3-month models, and included in 4-year predictions. Poststroke medical and psychiatric comorbidities significantly increased short-term poststroke mortality and morbidity. Severe periventricular white matter disease (PVWMD) was significantly associated with poor functional outcome at 3 months, independent of other factors, such as diabetes and age; inclusion of this imaging variable eliminated other traditional risk factors often found in stroke outcomes models. Outcome at 3 months was a significant predictor of long-term mortality and functional outcome. Black race was a predictor of 4-year mortality. We propose that predictive models for stroke outcome, as well as analysis of clinical trials, should include adjustment for comorbid conditions. The effects of PVWMD on short-term functional outcomes and black race on long-term mortality are findings that require confirmation.

Six minute walk test predicts long-term all-cause mortality and heart failure rehospitalization in African-American patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Alahdab, M Tarek; Mansour, Ibrahim N; Napan, Sirikarn; Stamos, Thomas D

2009-03-01

The prognostic value of the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) has been described in patients with heart failure (HF); however, limited data are available in an African-American (AA) population. We prospectively evaluated the usefulness of the 6MWT in predicting mortality and HF rehospitalization in AA patients with acute decompensated HF. Two hundred AA patients (63.1% men, mean age 55.7 +/- 12.9 years) with acute decompensated HF were prospectively studied. Patients were followed to assess 40-month all-cause mortality and 18-month HF rehospitalization. The median distance walked on the 6MWT was 213 m. Of the 198 patients with available mortality data, 59 patients (29.8%) died. Of the 191 patients with available rehospitalization data, 114 (59.7%) were rehospitalized for worsening HF. For patients who walked 200 m (P = .001). For patients who walked 200 m (P = .027). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that 6MWT distance

Natural course of care dependency in residents of long-term care facilities: prospective follow-up study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Insight in the natural course of care dependency of vulnerable older persons in long-term care facilities (LTCF) is essential to organize and optimize individual tailored care. We examined changes in care dependency in LTCF residents over two 6-month periods, explored the possible predictive factors of change and the effect of care dependency on mortality. Methods A prospective follow-up study in 21 Dutch long-term care facilities. 890 LTCF residents, median age 84 (Interquartile range 79–88) years participated. At baseline, 6 and 12 months, care dependency was assessed by the nursing staff with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS), range 15–75 points. Since the median CDS score differed between men and women (47.5 vs. 43.0, P = 0.013), CDS groups (low, middle and high) were based on gender-specific 33% of CDS scores at baseline and 6 months. Results At baseline, the CDS groups differed in median length of stay on the ward, urine incontinence and dementia (all P < 0.001); participants in the low CDS group stayed longer, had more frequent urine incontinence and more dementia. They had also the highest mortality rate (log rank 32.2; df = 2; P for trend <0.001). Per point lower in CDS score, the mortality risk increased with 2% (95% CI 1%-3%). Adjustment for age, gender, cranberry use, LTCF, length of stay, comorbidity and dementia showed similar results. A one point decrease in CDS score between 0 and 6 months was related to an increased mortality risk of 4% (95% CI 3%-6%). At the 6-month follow-up, 10% improved to a higher CDS group, 65% were in the same, and 25% had deteriorated to a lower CDS group; a similar pattern emerged at 12-month follow-up. Gender, age, urine incontinence, dementia, cancer and baseline care dependency status, predicted an increase in care dependency over time. Conclusion The majority of residents were stable in their care dependency status over two subsequent 6-month periods. Highly care dependent residents showed an increased mortality risk. Awareness of the natural course of care dependency is essential to residents and their formal and informal caregivers when considering therapeutic and end-of-life care options. PMID:24884563

Natural course of care dependency in residents of long-term care facilities: prospective follow-up study.

PubMed

Caljouw, Monique A A; Cools, Herman J M; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

2014-05-22

Insight in the natural course of care dependency of vulnerable older persons in long-term care facilities (LTCF) is essential to organize and optimize individual tailored care. We examined changes in care dependency in LTCF residents over two 6-month periods, explored the possible predictive factors of change and the effect of care dependency on mortality. A prospective follow-up study in 21 Dutch long-term care facilities. 890 LTCF residents, median age 84 (Interquartile range 79-88) years participated. At baseline, 6 and 12 months, care dependency was assessed by the nursing staff with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS), range 15-75 points. Since the median CDS score differed between men and women (47.5 vs. 43.0, P = 0.013), CDS groups (low, middle and high) were based on gender-specific 33% of CDS scores at baseline and 6 months. At baseline, the CDS groups differed in median length of stay on the ward, urine incontinence and dementia (all P < 0.001); participants in the low CDS group stayed longer, had more frequent urine incontinence and more dementia. They had also the highest mortality rate (log rank 32.2; df = 2; P for trend <0.001). Per point lower in CDS score, the mortality risk increased with 2% (95% CI 1%-3%). Adjustment for age, gender, cranberry use, LTCF, length of stay, comorbidity and dementia showed similar results. A one point decrease in CDS score between 0 and 6 months was related to an increased mortality risk of 4% (95% CI 3%-6%).At the 6-month follow-up, 10% improved to a higher CDS group, 65% were in the same, and 25% had deteriorated to a lower CDS group; a similar pattern emerged at 12-month follow-up. Gender, age, urine incontinence, dementia, cancer and baseline care dependency status, predicted an increase in care dependency over time. The majority of residents were stable in their care dependency status over two subsequent 6-month periods. Highly care dependent residents showed an increased mortality risk. Awareness of the natural course of care dependency is essential to residents and their formal and informal caregivers when considering therapeutic and end-of-life care options.

Twelve-year mortality in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy: the role of social vulnerability. The ANRS CO8 APROCO-COPILOTE cohort.

PubMed

Protopopescu, Camelia; Raffi, François; Spire, Bruno; Hardel, Lucile; Michelet, Christian; Cheneau, Christine; Le Moing, Vincent; Leport, Catherine; Carrieri, Maria Patrizia

2015-01-01

Although the role of clinical/biological factors associated with mortality has already been explored in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), to date little attention has been given to the potential role of social vulnerability. This study aimed to construct an appropriate measure of social vulnerability and to evaluate whether this measure is predictive of increased mortality risk in ART-treated patients followed up in the ANRS CO8 APROCO-COPILOTE cohort. The cohort enrolled 1,281 patients initiating a protease inhibitor-based regimen in 1997-1999. Clinical/laboratory data were collected every 4 months. Self-administered questionnaires collected psycho-social/behavioural characteristics at enrolment (month [M] 0), M4 and every 8-12 months thereafter. A multiple correspondence analysis using education, employment and housing indicators helped construct a composite indicator measuring social vulnerability. The outcome studied was all-cause deaths occurring after M4. The relationship between social vulnerability and mortality, after adjustment for other predictors, was studied using a shared-frailty Cox model, taking into account informative study dropout. Over a median (IQR) follow-up of 7.9 (3.0-11.2) years, 121 deaths occurred among 1,057 eligible patients, corresponding to a mortality rate (95% CI) of 1.64 (1.37, 1.96)/100 person-years. Leading causes of death were non-AIDS defining cancers (n=26), AIDS (n=23) and cardiovascular diseases (n=12). Social vulnerability (HR [95% CI] =1.2 [1.0, 1.5]) was associated with increased mortality risk, after adjustment for other known behavioural and bio-medical predictors. Social vulnerability remains a major mortality predictor in ART-treated patients. A real need exists for innovative interventions targeting individuals cumulating several sources of social vulnerability, to ensure that social inequalities do not continue to lead to higher mortality.

Plasma concentration of diamine oxidase (DAO) predicts 1-month mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

PubMed

Li, Feng-Cai; Li, Yue-Kai; Fan, Yu-Chen; Wang, Kai

2018-05-26

Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) has high 1-month mortality but it is difficult to predict. This present study was aimed to determine the diagnostic value of plasma diamine oxidase (DAO) in predicting the 1-month mortality of ACHBLF. A total of 106 consecutive newly diagnosed ACHBLF patients were retrospectively collected. The plasma expression of DAO was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The plasma DAO level of survivals [14.0 (7.1; 26.5) ng/mL] was significantly lower than the nonsurvivals [58.6 (32.5; 121.3) ng/mL, P < .001]. The plasma DAO level, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were independent factors associated with the 1-month mortality for ACHBLF. The cut-off point of 15.2 ng/mL for plasma DAO level with sensitivity of 95.45%, specificity of 62.5%, 22.6 for MELD score with sensitivity of 90.91%, specificity of 67.5%, 0.07 for DAO plus MELD with sensitivity of 87.88%, specificity of 80% were selected to discriminate 1-month morality of ACHBLF. Furthermore, DAO plus MELD score showed high AUROC than MELD score for predicting 1-month (0.916 vs. 0.843, P < .01). The plasma DAO level plus MELD > 0.07 predicts poor 1-month mortality of ACHBLF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors to inform clinicians about the end of life in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Benzo, Roberto; Siemion, Wendy; Novotny, Paul; Sternberg, Alice; Kaplan, Robert M; Ries, Andrew; Wise, Robert; Martinez, Fernando; Utz, James; Sciurba, Frank

2013-10-01

Palliative services have historically been offered to terminal patients with cancer, but much less so in other chronic illnesses such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) because of difficulties in predicting the trajectory to death. The goal of this study was to determine if the change over time of the key parameters (trajectory) in patients with severe COPD can independently predict short-term mortality. We analyzed data from 1218 patients with severe COPD. Multivariate models for trajectory change were used to forecast mortality at 12 months. Changes in several variables by defined cutpoints increase significantly and independently the odds of dying in 12 months. The earliest and strongest predictors were the decrease in gait speed by 0.14 m/s or six-minute walk by 50 m (odds ratio [OR] 4.40, P<0.0001). Alternatively, if six-minute walk or gait speed were not used, change toward perceiving a very sedentary state using a single question (OR 3.56, P=0.0007) and decrease in maximal inspiratory pressure greater than 11 cmH2O (OR 2.19, P=0.0217) were predictive, followed by change toward feeling upset or downhearted (OR 2.44, P=0.0250), decrease in room air resting partial pressure of oxygen greater than 5 mmHg (OR 2.46, P=0.0156), and increase in room air resting partial pressure of carbon dioxide greater than 3 mmHg (OR 2.8, P=0.0039). Change over time models were more discriminative (higher c-statistics) than change from baseline models. The changes in defined variables and patient-reported outcomes by defined cutpoints were independently associated with increased 12-month mortality in patients with severe COPD. These results may inform clinicians when to initiate end-of-life communications and palliative care. Copyright © 2013 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. All rights reserved.

Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and elevated serum creatinine predict mortality in geriatric patients with fever.

PubMed

Chung, Min-Hsien; Chu, Feng-Yuan; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Guo, How-Ran; Vong, Si-Chon; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin

2015-07-01

The geriatric population (aged ≥65 years) accounts for 12-24% of all emergency department (ED) visits. Of them, 10% have a fever, 70-90% will be admitted and 7-10% of will die within a month. Therefore, mortality prediction and appropriate disposition after ED treatment are of great concern for geriatric patients with fever. We tried to identify independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever, and combine these predictors to predict their mortality. We enrolled consecutive geriatric patients visiting the ED between 1 June and 21 July 2010 with the following criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. We used 30-day mortality as the primary end-point. A total of 330 patients were enrolled. Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and serum creatinine >2 mg/dL, but not age, were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) ranged from 18.2% to 90.9%, 34.7% to 100%, 9.0% to 100% and 94.5% to 98.2%, respectively, depending on how many predictors there were. The 30-day mortality increased with the number of independent mortality predictors. With at least four predictors, 100% of the patients died within 30 days. With none of the predictors, just 1.8% died. These findings might help physicians make decisions about geriatric patients with fever. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Additional predictive value of nutritional status in the prognostic assessment of heart failure patients.

PubMed

La Rovere, M T; Maestri, R; Olmetti, F; Paganini, V; Riccardi, G; Riccardi, R; Pinna, G D; Traversi, E

2017-03-01

Nutritional status (NS) is not routinely assessed in HF. We sought to evaluate whether NS may be additive to a comprehensive pre-discharge evaluation based on a clinical score that includes BMI (MAGGIC) and on an index of functional capacity (six minute walking test, 6mWT) in HF patients. The CONUT (Controlling Nutritional Status) score (including serum albumin level, total cholesterol and lymphocyte count) was computed in 466 consecutive patients (mean age 61 ± 11 years, NYHA class 2.6 ± 0.6, LVEF 34 ± 11%, BMI 27.2 ± 4.5) who had pre-discharge MAGGIC and 6MWT. The endpoint was all-cause mortality. Mild or moderate undernourishment was present in 54% of patients with no differences across BMI strata. The 12-month event rate was 7.7%. Deceased patients had a more compromised NS (CONUT 2.8 ± 1.5 vs 1.7 ± 1.3, p < 0.0001), and a more advanced HF (MAGGIC 28.2 ± 6.0 vs 22.0 ± 6.6, p < 0.0001; 6MWT 311.1 ± 102.2 vs. 408.9 ± 95.9 m, p < 0.0001). The 12-month mortality rate varied from 4% for well-nourished to 11% for undernourished patients (p = 0.008). At univariate analysis, the CONUT was predictive for all-cause mortality with a Hazard Ratio of 1.701 [95% CI 1.363-2.122], p < 0.0001. Multivariable analysis showed that the CONUT significantly added to the combination of MAGGIC and 6MWT and improved predictive discrimination and risk classification (c-index 0.82 [95% CI 0.75-0.88], integrated discrimination improvement 0.028 [95% CI 0.015-0.081]). In HF patients assessment of NS, significantly improves prediction of 12-month mortality on top of the information provided by clinical evaluation and functional capacity and should be incorporated in the overall assessment of HF patients. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can information on functional and cognitive status improve short-term mortality risk prediction among community-dwelling older people? A cohort study using a UK primary care database

PubMed Central

Sultana, Janet; Fontana, Andrea; Giorgianni, Francesco; Basile, Giorgio; Patorno, Elisabetta; Pilotto, Alberto; Molokhia, Mariam; Stewart, Robert; Sturkenboom, Miriam; Trifirò, Gianluca

2018-01-01

Background Functional and cognitive domains have rarely been evaluated for their prognostic value in general practice databases. The aim of this study was to identify functional and cognitive domains in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and to evaluate their additional value for the prediction of 1-month and 1-year mortality in elderly people. Materials and methods A cohort study was conducted using a UK nationwide general practitioner database. A total of 1,193,268 patients aged 65 years or older, of whom 15,300 had dementia, were identified from 2000 to 2012. Information on mobility, dressing and accommodation was recorded frequently enough to be analyzed further in THIN. Cognition data could not be used due to very poor recording of data in THIN. One-year and 1-month mortality was predicted using logistic models containing variables such as age, sex, disease score and functionality status. Results A significant but moderate improvement in 1-year and 1-month mortality prediction in elderly people was observed by adding accommodation to the variables age, sex and disease score, as the c-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]) increased from 0.71 (0.70–0.72) to 0.76 (0.75–0.77) and 0.73 (0.71–0.75) to 0.79 (0.77–0.80), respectively. A less notable improvement in the prediction of 1-year and 1-month mortality was observed in people with dementia. Conclusion Functional domains moderately improved the accuracy of a model including age, sex and comorbidities in predicting 1-year and 1-month mortality risk among community-dwelling older people, but they were much less able to predict mortality in people with dementia. Cognition could not be explored as a predictor of mortality due to insufficient data being recorded. PMID:29296099

Clinical Prediction of Functional Outcome after Ischemic Stroke: The Surprising Importance of Periventricular White Matter Disease and Race

PubMed Central

Kissela, Brett; Lindsell, Christopher J.; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J.; Woo, Daniel; Flaherty, Matthew L.; Air, Ellen; Broderick, Joseph; Tsevat, Joel

2009-01-01

Background We sought 0074o build models that address questions of interest to patients and families by predicting short- and long-term mortality and functional outcome after ischemic stroke, while allowing for risk re-stratification as comorbid events accumulate. Methods A cohort of 451 ischemic stroke subjects in 1999 were interviewed during hospitalization, at 3 months, and at approximately 4 years. Medical records from the acute hospitalization were abstracted. All hospitalizations for 3 months post-stroke were reviewed to ascertain medical and psychiatric comorbidities, which were categorized for analysis. Multivariable models were derived to predict mortality and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) at 3 months and 4 years. Comorbidities were included as modifiers of the 3 month models, and included in 4-year predictions. Results Post-stroke medical and psychiatric comorbidities significantly increased short term post-stroke mortality and morbidity. Severe periventricular white matter disease (PVWMD) was significantly associated with poor functional outcome at 3 months, independent of other factors, such as diabetes and age; inclusion of this imaging variable eliminated other traditional risk factors often found in stroke outcomes models. Outcome at 3 months was a significant predictor of long-term mortality and functional outcome. Black race was a predictor of 4-year mortality. Conclusions We propose that predictive models for stroke outcome, as well as analysis of clinical trials, should include adjustment for comorbid conditions. The effects of PVWMD on short-term functional outcomes and black race on long-term mortality are findings that require confirmation. PMID:19109548

Outcomes of ≤6-month versus 12-month dual antiplatelet therapy after drug-eluting stent implantation

PubMed Central

Villablanca, Pedro A.; Massera, Daniele; Mathew, Verghese; Bangalore, Sripal; Christia, Panagiota; Perez, Irving; Wan, Ningxin; Schulz-Schüpke, Stefanie; Briceno, David F.; Bortnick, Anna E.; Garcia, Mario J.; Lucariello, Richard; Menegus, Mark; Pyo, Robert; Wiley, Jose; Ramakrishna, Harish

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: The benefit of ≤6-month compared with 12-month dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stent (DES) placement remains controversial. We performed a meta-analysis and meta-regression of ≤6-month versus 12-month DAPT in patients undergoing PCI with DES placement. Methods: We conducted electronic database searches of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing DAPT durations after DES placement. For studies with longer follow-up, outcomes at 12 months were identified. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were computed with the Mantel–Haenszel method. Fixed-effect models were used; if heterogeneity (I2) > 40 was identified, effects were obtained with random models. Results: Nine RCTs were included with total n = 19,224 patients. No significant differences were observed between ≤6-month compared with 12-month DAPT in all-cause mortality (OR 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69–1.11), cardiovascular (CV) mortality (OR 0.89; 95% CI: 0.66–1.21), non-CV mortality (OR 0.85; 95% 0.58–1.24), myocardial infarction (OR 1.10; 95% CI: 0.89–1.37), stroke (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.67–1.42), stent thrombosis (ST) (OR 1.37; 95% CI: 0.89–2.10), and target vessel revascularization (OR 0.95; 95% CI: 0.77–1.18). No significant difference in major bleeding (OR 0.72; 95% CI: 0.49–1.05) was observed, though the all-bleeding event rate was significantly lower in the ≤6-month DAPT group (OR 0.76; 95% CI: 0.59–0.96). In the meta-regression analysis, a significant association between bleeding events and non-CV mortality with 12-month DAPT was found, as well as between ST and mortality in addition to MI with ≤6-month DAPT. Conclusion: DAPT for ≤6 months is associated with similar mortality and ischemic outcomes but less bleeding events compared with 12-month DAPT after PCI with DES. PMID:28033306

Medication for Opioid Use Disorder After Nonfatal Opioid Overdose and Association With Mortality: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Larochelle, Marc R; Bernson, Dana; Land, Thomas; Stopka, Thomas J; Wang, Na; Xuan, Ziming; Bagley, Sarah M; Liebschutz, Jane M; Walley, Alexander Y

2018-06-19

Opioid overdose survivors have an increased risk for death. Whether use of medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) after overdose is associated with mortality is not known. To identify MOUD use after opioid overdose and its association with all-cause and opioid-related mortality. Retrospective cohort study. 7 individually linked data sets from Massachusetts government agencies. 17 568 Massachusetts adults without cancer who survived an opioid overdose between 2012 and 2014. Three types of MOUD were examined: methadone maintenance treatment (MMT), buprenorphine, and naltrexone. Exposure to MOUD was identified at monthly intervals, and persons were considered exposed through the month after last receipt. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine MOUD as a monthly time-varying exposure variable to predict time to all-cause and opioid-related mortality. In the 12 months after a nonfatal overdose, 2040 persons (11%) enrolled in MMT for a median of 5 months (interquartile range, 2 to 9 months), 3022 persons (17%) received buprenorphine for a median of 4 months (interquartile range, 2 to 8 months), and 1099 persons (6%) received naltrexone for a median of 1 month (interquartile range, 1 to 2 months). Among the entire cohort, all-cause mortality was 4.7 deaths (95% CI, 4.4 to 5.0 deaths) per 100 person-years and opioid-related mortality was 2.1 deaths (CI, 1.9 to 2.4 deaths) per 100 person-years. Compared with no MOUD, MMT was associated with decreased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.47 [CI, 0.32 to 0.71]) and opioid-related mortality (AHR, 0.41 [CI, 0.24 to 0.70]). Buprenorphine was associated with decreased all-cause mortality (AHR, 0.63 [CI, 0.46 to 0.87]) and opioid-related mortality (AHR, 0.62 [CI, 0.41 to 0.92]). No associations between naltrexone and all-cause mortality (AHR, 1.44 [CI, 0.84 to 2.46]) or opioid-related mortality (AHR, 1.42 [CI, 0.73 to 2.79]) were identified. Few events among naltrexone recipients preclude confident conclusions. A minority of opioid overdose survivors received MOUD. Buprenorphine and MMT were associated with reduced all-cause and opioid-related mortality. National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health.

Optimism and recovery after acute coronary syndrome: a clinical cohort study.

PubMed

Ronaldson, Amy; Molloy, Gerard J; Wikman, Anna; Poole, Lydia; Kaski, Juan-Carlos; Steptoe, Andrew

2015-04-01

Optimism is associated with reduced cardiovascular mortality, but its impact on recovery after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is poorly understood. We hypothesized that greater optimism would lead to more effective physical and emotional adaptation after ACS and would buffer the impact of persistent depressive symptoms on clinical outcomes. This prospective observational clinical study took place in an urban general hospital and involved 369 patients admitted with a documented ACS. Optimism was assessed with a standardized questionnaire. The main outcomes were physical health status, depressive symptoms, smoking, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable consumption measured 12 months after ACS, and composite major adverse cardiac events (cardiovascular death, readmission with reinfarction or unstable angina, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery) assessed over an average of 45.7 months. We found that optimism predicted better physical health status 12 months after ACS independently of baseline physical health, age, sex, ethnicity, social deprivation, and clinical risk factors (B = 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.10-1.20). Greater optimism also predicted reduced risk of depressive symptoms (odds ratio = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.74-0.90), more smoking cessation, and more fruit and vegetable consumption at 12 months. Persistent depressive symptoms 12 months after ACS predicted major adverse cardiac events over subsequent years (odds ratio = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.16-5.67), but only among individuals low in optimism (optimism × depression interaction; p = .014). Optimism predicts better physical and emotional health after ACS. Measuring optimism may help identify individuals at risk. Pessimistic outlooks can be modified, potentially leading to improved recovery after major cardiac events.

Comparison of the Mini-Nutritional Assessment short and long form and serum albumin as prognostic indicators of hip fracture outcomes.

PubMed

Helminen, Heli; Luukkaala, Tiina; Saarnio, Juha; Nuotio, Maria

2017-04-01

Malnutrition is common among older hip fracture patients and associated with adverse outcomes. We examined Mini Nutritional Assessment short (MNA-SF) and long form (MNA-LF) and serum albumin as prognostic indicators of mobility, living arrangements and mortality after hip fracture. Population-based prospective data were collected on 594 hip fracture patients aged 65 and over. MNA-SF, MNA-LF and serum albumin were assessed on admission. Outcomes were poorer mobility; transfer to more assisted living accommodation and mortality one month, four months and one year post fracture. Logistic regression analyses for mobility and living arrangements with odds ratios (OR) and Cox proportional hazards model for mortality with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used, adjusted for age, gender, ASA grade and fracture type. All measures predicted mortality at all time-points. Risk of malnutrition and malnutrition measured by MNA-LF predicted mobility and living arrangements within four months of hip fracture. At one year, risk of malnutrition predicted mobility and malnutrition predicted living arrangements, when measured by MNA-LF. Malnutrition, but not risk thereof, measured by MNA-SF predicted living arrangements at all time-points. None of the measures predicted one-month mobility. All measures were strong indicators of short- and long-term mortality after hip fracture. MNA-LF was superior in predicting mobility and living arrangements, particularly at four months. All measures were relatively poor in predicting short-term outcomes of mobility and living arrangements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Independent Predictors of 6-Month Mortality in Patients Successfully Resuscitated for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: Observational Retrospective Single Center Study.

PubMed

Sinkovič, Andreja; Markota, Andrej; Marinšek, Martin; Svenšek, Franc

2018-01-01

Mortality of admitted out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients is decreasing. Our aim was to evaluate independent predictors of six-month mortality of successfully resuscitated OHCA patients. We reviewed retrospectively the records of 119 OHCA patients, admitted in 2011 to 2013 (73.1% men, mean age 64 ± 13,5 years) and registered their clinical data, treatments, and predictors of 6-month mortality. Six-month mortality of admitted OHCA patients was 47.5% and was associated significantly with older age (67.7 ± 12.9 years versus 59.9 ± 13 years, p < 0.05), mechanical ventilation, longer time of resuscitation (24.6 ± 18.9 sec versus 8.9 ± 8.4 sec, p < 0.05), use of vasopressors (87.3% versus 62.5%, p < 0.05), and increased serum lactate (8.1 ± 3.9 mmol/l versus 4.5 ± 3.6 mmol/l, p < 0.05) but less likely with prior shockable rhythm (38% versus 73.2%, p < 0.05), percutaneous coronary intervention (27% versus 55.4%, p < 0.05), achieved target temperatures 32°-34°C of mild therapeutic hypothermia (47.6% versus 71.4%, p < 0.05), acute coronary syndromes (31.7% versus 51.8%, p < 0.05), and neurological recovery (4.8% versus 69.6%, p < 0.05) when compared to survivors. Neurological outcome was most significant early independent predictor of 6-month mortality (OR 50.47; 95% CI 6.74 to 377.68; p < 0.001). Postcardiac arrest brain injury most significantly and independently predicted 6-month mortality in hospitalized OHCA patients.

Longitudinal change in the BODE index predicts mortality in severe emphysema.

PubMed

Martinez, Fernando J; Han, Meilan K; Andrei, Adin-Cristian; Wise, Robert; Murray, Susan; Curtis, Jeffrey L; Sternberg, Alice; Criner, Gerard; Gay, Steven E; Reilly, John; Make, Barry; Ries, Andrew L; Sciurba, Frank; Weinmann, Gail; Mosenifar, Zab; DeCamp, Malcolm; Fishman, Alfred P; Celli, Bartolome R

2008-09-01

The predictive value of longitudinal change in BODE (Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise capacity) index has received limited attention. We hypothesized that decrease in a modified BODE (mBODE) would predict survival in National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT) patients. To determine how the mBODE score changes in patients with lung volume reduction surgery versus medical therapy and correlations with survival. Clinical data were recorded using standardized instruments. The mBODE was calculated and patient-specific mBODE trajectories during 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up were estimated using separate regressions for each patient. Patients were classified as having decreasing, stable, increasing, or missing mBODE based on their absolute change from baseline. The predictive ability of mBODE change on survival was assessed using multivariate Cox regression models. The index of concordance was used to directly compare the predictive ability of mBODE and its separate components. The entire cohort (610 treated medically and 608 treated surgically) was characterized by severe airflow obstruction, moderate breathlessness, and increased mBODE at baseline. A wide distribution of change in mBODE was seen at follow-up. An increase in mBODE of more than 1 point was associated with increased mortality in surgically and medically treated patients. Surgically treated patients were less likely to experience death or an increase greater than 1 in mBODE. Indices of concordance showed that mBODE change predicted survival better than its separate components. The mBODE demonstrates short- and intermediate-term responsiveness to intervention in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Increase in mBODE of more than 1 point from baseline to 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up was predictive of subsequent mortality. Change in mBODE may prove a good surrogate measure of survival in therapeutic trials in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00000606).

Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 12 western US conifers using the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)

Treesearch

Sharon Hood; Duncan Lutes

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of fire-caused tree mortality is critical for making sound land management decisions such as developing burning prescriptions and post-fire management guidelines. To improve efforts to predict post-fire tree mortality, we developed 3-year post-fire mortality models for 12 Western conifer species - white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. &...

Optimism and Recovery After Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Clinical Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ronaldson, Amy; Molloy, Gerard J.; Wikman, Anna; Poole, Lydia; Kaski, Juan-Carlos; Steptoe, Andrew

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective Optimism is associated with reduced cardiovascular mortality, but its impact on recovery after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is poorly understood. We hypothesized that greater optimism would lead to more effective physical and emotional adaptation after ACS and would buffer the impact of persistent depressive symptoms on clinical outcomes. Methods This prospective observational clinical study took place in an urban general hospital and involved 369 patients admitted with a documented ACS. Optimism was assessed with a standardized questionnaire. The main outcomes were physical health status, depressive symptoms, smoking, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable consumption measured 12 months after ACS, and composite major adverse cardiac events (cardiovascular death, readmission with reinfarction or unstable angina, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery) assessed over an average of 45.7 months. Results We found that optimism predicted better physical health status 12 months after ACS independently of baseline physical health, age, sex, ethnicity, social deprivation, and clinical risk factors (B = 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.10–1.20). Greater optimism also predicted reduced risk of depressive symptoms (odds ratio = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.74–0.90), more smoking cessation, and more fruit and vegetable consumption at 12 months. Persistent depressive symptoms 12 months after ACS predicted major adverse cardiac events over subsequent years (odds ratio = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.16–5.67), but only among individuals low in optimism (optimism × depression interaction; p = .014). Conclusions Optimism predicts better physical and emotional health after ACS. Measuring optimism may help identify individuals at risk. Pessimistic outlooks can be modified, potentially leading to improved recovery after major cardiac events. PMID:25738438

Concurrent and predictive evaluation of malnutrition diagnostic measures in hip fracture inpatients: a diagnostic accuracy study.

PubMed

Bell, J J; Bauer, J D; Capra, S; Pulle, R C

2014-03-01

Differences in malnutrition diagnostic measures impact malnutrition prevalence and outcomes data in hip fracture. This study investigated the concurrent and predictive validity of commonly reported malnutrition diagnostic measures in patients admitted to a metropolitan hospital acute hip fracture unit. A prospective, consecutive level II diagnostic accuracy study (n=142; 8 exclusions) including the International Classification of Disease, 10th Revision, Australian Modification (ICD10-AM) protein-energy malnutrition criteria, a body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m(2), the Mini-Nutrition Assessment Short-Form (MNA-SF), pre-operative albumin and geriatrician individualised assessment. Patients were predominantly elderly (median age 83.5, range 50-100 years), female (68%), multimorbid (median five comorbidities), with 15% 4-month mortality. Malnutrition prevalence was lowest when assessed by BMI (13%), followed by MNA-SF (27%), ICD10-AM (48%), albumin (53%) and geriatrician assessment (55%). Agreement between measures was highest between ICD10-AM and geriatrician assessment (κ=0.61) followed by ICD10-AM and MNA-SF measures (κ=0.34). ICD10-AM diagnosed malnutrition was the only measure associated with 48-h mobilisation (35.0 vs 55.3%; P=0.018). Reduced likelihood of home discharge was predicted by ICD-10-AM (20.6 vs 57.1%; P=0.001) and MNA-SF (18.8 vs 47.8%; P=0.035). Bivariate analysis demonstrated ICD10-AM (relative risk (RR)1.2; 1.05-1.42) and MNA-SF (RR1.2; 1.0-1.5) predicted 4-month mortality. When adjusted for age, usual place of residency, comorbidities and time to surgery only ICD-10AM criteria predicted mortality (odds ratio 3.59; 1.10-11.77). Albumin, BMI and geriatrician assessment demonstrated limited concurrent and predictive validity. Malnutrition prevalence in hip fracture varies substantially depending on the diagnostic measure applied. ICD-10AM criteria or the MNA-SF should be considered for the diagnosis of protein-energy malnutrition in frail, multi-morbid hip fracture inpatients.

Predicting 6- and 12-Month Risk of Mortality in Patients With Platinum-Resistant Advanced-Stage Ovarian Cancer: Prognostic Model to Guide Palliative Care Referrals.

PubMed

Foote, Jonathan; Lopez-Acevedo, Micael; Samsa, Gregory; Lee, Paula S; Kamal, Arif H; Alvarez Secord, Angeles; Havrilesky, Laura J

2018-02-01

Predictive models are increasingly being used in clinical practice. The aim of the study was to develop a predictive model to identify patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer with a prognosis of less than 6 to 12 months who may benefit from immediate referral to hospice care. A retrospective chart review identified patients with platinum-resistant epithelial ovarian cancer who were treated at our institution between 2000 and 2011. A predictive model for survival was constructed based on the time from development of platinum resistance to death. Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used to identify significant survival predictors and to develop a predictive model. The following variables were included: time from diagnosis to platinum resistance, initial stage, debulking status, number of relapses, comorbidity score, albumin, hemoglobin, CA-125 levels, liver/lung metastasis, and the presence of a significant clinical event (SCE). An SCE was defined as a malignant bowel obstruction, pleural effusion, or ascites occurring on or before the diagnosis of platinum resistance. One hundred sixty-four patients met inclusion criteria. In the regression analysis, only an SCE and the presence of liver or lung metastasis were associated with poorer short-term survival (P < 0.001). Nine percent of patients with an SCE or liver or lung metastasis survived 6 months or greater and 0% survived 12 months or greater, compared with 85% and 67% of patients without an SCE or liver or lung metastasis, respectively. Patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer who have experienced an SCE or liver or lung metastasis have a high risk of death within 6 months and should be considered for immediate referral to hospice care.

Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis.

PubMed

Park, Lawrence P; Chu, Vivian H; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai; Kanj, Souha; Wang, Andrew

2016-04-18

Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE. Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE-PLUS, 2008-2012, n=1197). The 6-month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE-PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE-PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left-sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6-month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables. Six-month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Medium-term survival after primary angioplasty for myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock after the age of 75 years.

PubMed

Samadi, A; Le Feuvre, C; Allali, Y; Collet, J-P; Barthélémy, O; Beygui, F; Helft, G; Montalescot, G; Metzger, J-P

2008-03-01

To assess mortality in people > or =75 years of age 6 months after myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock and treated by angioplasty with complete revascularisation and optimal anti-thrombotic treatment; to compare results to those of younger patients with or without shock and to analyse predictive factors for death. The study is based on 1011 consecutive patients with myocardial infarction admitted for primary angioplasty, subdivided into four groups by age and the presence or absence of cardiogenic shock: group 1 (<75 years of age without shock, n=733), group 2 (<75 years of age with shock, n=49), group 3 (> or =75 years of age without shock, n=208) and group 4 (> or =75 years of age with shock, n=20). These four patient groups were compared for mortality rates and predictive factors for in-hospital and 6 month mortality. In-hospital mortality in groups 1 to 4 was 1.7%, 30.6%, 9.1%, and 70% (p<0.0001) respectively and 6-month mortality was 3.1%, 40%, 16% and 78% (P<0.0001). By univariate analysis renal failure was a predictive factor for death at 6 months in patients without cardiogenic shock (groups 1 and 3), and left ventricular function in patients in group 2. No predictive factors were found in group 4 patients. The independent predictive factors for death at 6 months were: age >75 years of age (P<0.0003), cardiogenic shock (P<0.0001), triple vessel lesions (P<0.01) and creatinine clearance (P=0.004). Mortality after angioplasty remains high in people > or =75 years with cardiogenic shock despite all the advances in the management of myocardial infarction. These disappointing results should encourage us to assess the role of surgical revascularisation and circulatory assistance.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Cortisol Mediates Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Relationships to Mortality after Severe TBI: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Munoz, Miranda J.; Kumar, Raj G.; Oh, Byung-Mo; Conley, Yvette P.; Wang, Zhensheng; Failla, Michelle D.; Wagner, Amy K.

2017-01-01

Distinct regulatory signaling mechanisms exist between cortisol and brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) that may influence secondary injury cascades associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and predict outcome. We investigated concurrent CSF BDNF and cortisol relationships in 117 patients sampled days 0–6 after severe TBI while accounting for BDNF genetics and age. We also determined associations between CSF BDNF and cortisol with 6-month mortality. BDNF variants, rs6265 and rs7124442, were used to create a gene risk score (GRS) in reference to previously published hypothesized risk for mortality in “younger patients” (<48 years) and hypothesized BDNF production/secretion capacity with these variants. Group based trajectory analysis (TRAJ) was used to create two cortisol groups (high and low trajectories). A Bayesian estimation approach informed the mediation models. Results show CSF BDNF predicted patient cortisol TRAJ group (P = 0.001). Also, GRS moderated BDNF associations with cortisol TRAJ group. Additionally, cortisol TRAJ predicted 6-month mortality (P = 0.001). In a mediation analysis, BDNF predicted mortality, with cortisol acting as the mediator (P = 0.011), yielding a mediation percentage of 29.92%. Mediation effects increased to 45.45% among younger patients. A BDNF*GRS interaction predicted mortality in younger patients (P = 0.004). Thus, we conclude 6-month mortality after severe TBI can be predicted through a mediation model with CSF cortisol and BDNF, suggesting a regulatory role for cortisol with BDNF's contribution to TBI pathophysiology and mortality, particularly among younger individuals with severe TBI. Based on the literature, cortisol modulated BDNF effects on mortality after TBI may be related to known hormone and neurotrophin relationships to neurological injury severity and autonomic nervous system imbalance. PMID:28337122

Early onset epilepsy is associated with increased mortality: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Moseley, Brian D.; Wirrell, Elaine C.; Wong-Kisiel, Lily C.; Nickels, Katherine

2013-01-01

SUMMARY We examined mortality in early onset (age <12 months) epilepsy in a population-based group of children. Children with early onset epilepsy were significantly more likely to die (case fatality, CF 8/60 versus 8/407, p<0.001; mortality rate, MR 14.5/1000 versus 2/1000 person years; standardized mortality ratio, SMR 22.25 versus 5.67). Mortality was greater in children with malignant neonatal (age <1 month) epilepsy (CF 4/12 versus 12/450, p<0.001; MR 54/1000 person years versus 2.7/1000 person year; SMR 46.55 versus 7.22). Given that only 1/8 early onset epilepsy deaths was seizure-related, mortality appears to be more affected by underlying etiology. PMID:23582606

Impact of functional status on 6-month mortality in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism: results from a prospective cohort.

PubMed

Gómez-Cuervo, Covadonga; Díaz-Pedroche, Carmen; Pérez-Jacoiste Asín, María Asunción; Lalueza, Antonio; Del Pozo, Roberto; Díaz-Simón, Raquel; Trapiello, Francisco; Paredes, Diana; Lumbreras, Carlos

2018-06-05

Functional status linked to a poor outcome in a broad spectrum of medical disorders. Barthel Activities of Daily Life Index (BADLI) is one of the most extended tools to quantify functional dependence. Whether BADLI can help to predict outcomes in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unknown. The current study aimed to ascertain the influence of BADLI on 6-month all-cause mortality in aged patients with VTE. This is a prospective observational study. We included consecutive patients older than 75-year-old with an acute VTE between April 2015 and April 2017. We analyzed several variables as mortality predictors, including BADLI-measured functional status. Afterward, we performed a multivariate analysis, using logistic regression, to identify all-cause mortality independent predictive factors. Two hundred and two subjects were included. Thirty-five (17%) patients died in the first 6 months. The leading cause of death was cancer (59%). After multivariable logistic regression, we identified BADLI and Charlson index as independent predictors for 6-months mortality [BADLI (every decrease of 10 points) OR 1.21 95% CI (1.03-1.42) and Charlson index OR 1.71 95% CI (1.21-2.43)]. Body mass index (BMI) values were inversely related to mortality [OR 0.85 95% CI (0.75-0.95)]. In conclusion, BADLI, BMI, and Charlson index scores are independent predictive factors for 6-month all-cause mortality in old patients with VTE.

Quantifying the hospitalised morbidity and mortality attributable to traumatic injury using a population-based matched cohort in Australia

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Rebecca J; Cameron, Cate M; McClure, Rod

2016-01-01

Objectives To quantify the 12-month hospitalised morbidity and mortality attributable to traumatic injury using a population-based matched cohort in Australia. Setting New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, Australia. Participants Individuals ≥18 years who had an injury-related hospital admission in 2009 formed the injured cohort. The non-injured comparison cohort was randomly selected from the electoral roll and was matched 1:1 on age, gender and postcode of residence at the date of the index injury admission of their matched counterpart. Primary outcome measures Using linked emergency department presentation, hospital admission and mortality records from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 for both the injured and non-injured cohorts, 12-month mortality and pre-index and post-index injury hospital service use was examined. Adjusted rate ratios and attributable risk were calculated. Results There were 167 600 individuals injured in 2009 and admitted to hospital in New South Wales, South Australia or Queensland with a matched comparison. The injured cohort had 3 times higher proportion of having ≥1 comorbidity preinjury, higher preinjury hospital service use, and a higher 12-month mortality compared with a non-injured comparison group. The injured cohort had 2.20 (95% CI 2.12 to 2.28) times higher rate of hospital admissions in the 12 months post the index injury admission compared with the non-injured comparison cohort. Injury was a likely contributory factor in at least 55% of hospitalisations within 12 months of the index injury hospitalisation. Conclusions Individuals who had an injury-related hospitalisation had higher mortality and are hospitalised at increased rates for many months postinjury. While comorbid conditions are significant, they do not account for the differences in outcomes. This study contributes to informing research efforts on better quantifying the attributable burden of hospitalised injury-related disability and mortality in Australia. PMID:27927664

Neighborhood Differences in Post-Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Osypuk, Theresa L.; Ehntholt, Amy; Moon, J. Robin; Gilsanz, Paola; Glymour, M. Maria

2017-01-01

Background Post-stroke mortality is higher among residents of disadvantaged neighborhoods, but it is not known whether neighborhood inequalities are specific to stroke survival or similar to mortality patterns in the general population. We hypothesized that neighborhood disadvantage would predict higher post-stroke mortality and neighborhood effects would be relatively larger for stroke patients than for individuals with no history of stroke. Methods and Results Health and Retirement Study participants aged 50+ without stroke at baseline (n=15,560) were followed up to 12 years for incident stroke (1,715 events over 159,286 person-years) and mortality (5,325 deaths). Baseline neighborhood characteristics included objective measures based on census tracts (family income, poverty, deprivation, residential stability, and percent white, black or foreign-born) and self-reported neighborhood social ties. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we compared neighborhood mortality effects for people with versus without a history of stroke. Most neighborhood variables predicted mortality for both stroke patients and the general population in demographic-adjusted models. Neighborhood percent white predicted lower mortality for stroke survivors (HR=0.75 for neighborhoods in highest 25th percentile vs. below, 95 % CI: 0.62, 0.91) more strongly than for stroke-free adults (HR=0.92 (0.83, 1.02); p=0.04 for stroke-by-neighborhood interaction). No other neighborhood characteristic had different effects for people with versus without stroke. Neighborhood-mortality associations emerged within three months after stroke, when associations were often stronger than among stroke-free individuals. Conclusions Neighborhood characteristics predict post-stroke mortality, but most effects are similar for individuals without stroke. Eliminating disparities in stroke survival may require addressing pathways that are not specific to traditional post-stroke care. PMID:28228449

Blunted cyclic variation of heart rate predicts mortality risk in post-myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and chronic heart failure patients

PubMed Central

Hayano, Junichiro; Yasuma, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Eiichi; Carney, Robert M.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Blumenthal, James A.; Arsenos, Petros; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A.; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ishii, Hideki; Kiyono, Ken; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Yuda, Emi; Kodama, Itsuo

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims Cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR) associated with sleep-disordered breathing is thought to reflect cardiac autonomic responses to apnoeic/hypoxic stress. We examined whether blunted CVHR observed in ambulatory ECG could predict the mortality risk. Methods and results CVHR in night-time Holter ECG was detected by an automated algorithm, and the prognostic relationships of the frequency (FCV) and amplitude (ACV) of CVHR were examined in 717 patients after myocardial infarction (post-MI 1, 6% mortality, median follow-up 25 months). The predictive power was prospectively validated in three independent cohorts: a second group of 220 post-MI patients (post-MI 2, 25.5% mortality, follow-up 45 months); 299 patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic haemodialysis (ESRD, 28.1% mortality, follow-up 85 months); and 100 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, 35% mortality, follow-up 38 months). Although CVHR was observed in ≥96% of the patients in all cohorts, FCV did not predict mortality in any cohort. In contrast, decreased ACV was a powerful predictor of mortality in the post-MI 1 cohort (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 ln [ms] decrement, 2.9 [2.2–3.7], P < 0.001). This prognostic relationship was validated in the post-MI 2 (1.8 [1.4–2.2], P < 0.001), ESRD (1.5 [1.3–1.8], P < 0.001), and CHF (1.4 [1.1–1.8], P = 0.02) cohorts. The prognostic value of ACV was independent of age, gender, diabetes, β-blocker therapy, left ventricular ejection fraction, sleep-time mean R-R interval, and FCV. Conclusion Blunted CVHR detected by decreased ACV in a night-time Holter ECG predicts increased mortality risk in post-MI, ESRD, and CHF patients. PMID:27789562

Blunted cyclic variation of heart rate predicts mortality risk in post-myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and chronic heart failure patients.

PubMed

Hayano, Junichiro; Yasuma, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Eiichi; Carney, Robert M; Stein, Phyllis K; Blumenthal, James A; Arsenos, Petros; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ishii, Hideki; Kiyono, Ken; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Yuda, Emi; Kodama, Itsuo

2017-08-01

Cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR) associated with sleep-disordered breathing is thought to reflect cardiac autonomic responses to apnoeic/hypoxic stress. We examined whether blunted CVHR observed in ambulatory ECG could predict the mortality risk. CVHR in night-time Holter ECG was detected by an automated algorithm, and the prognostic relationships of the frequency (FCV) and amplitude (ACV) of CVHR were examined in 717 patients after myocardial infarction (post-MI 1, 6% mortality, median follow-up 25 months). The predictive power was prospectively validated in three independent cohorts: a second group of 220 post-MI patients (post-MI 2, 25.5% mortality, follow-up 45 months); 299 patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic haemodialysis (ESRD, 28.1% mortality, follow-up 85 months); and 100 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, 35% mortality, follow-up 38 months). Although CVHR was observed in ≥96% of the patients in all cohorts, FCV did not predict mortality in any cohort. In contrast, decreased ACV was a powerful predictor of mortality in the post-MI 1 cohort (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 ln [ms] decrement, 2.9 [2.2-3.7], P < 0.001). This prognostic relationship was validated in the post-MI 2 (1.8 [1.4-2.2], P < 0.001), ESRD (1.5 [1.3-1.8], P < 0.001), and CHF (1.4 [1.1-1.8], P = 0.02) cohorts. The prognostic value of ACV was independent of age, gender, diabetes, β-blocker therapy, left ventricular ejection fraction, sleep-time mean R-R interval, and FCV. Blunted CVHR detected by decreased ACV in a night-time Holter ECG predicts increased mortality risk in post-MI, ESRD, and CHF patients. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Prevalence of hypothalamo pituitary dysfunction in patients of traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Hari Kumar, K V S; Swamy, M N; Khan, M A

2016-01-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is common in young soldiers of armed forces leading to significant morbidity and mortality. We studied the prevalence of hypopituitarism following TBI and its association with trauma severity. We conducted a 12-month prospective study of 56 TBI patients for the presence of hormonal dysfunction. Hormonal parameters were estimated during the early phase (0-10 days posttraumatically) and after 6 and 12 months. Dynamic testing was done when required, and the results were analyzed by appropriate statistical methods. Hormonal dysfunction was seen in 39 of the 56 (70%) patients at initial assessment. Persisting pituitary deficiencies are seen in 7 and 8 patients at the end of 6 months and 12 months, respectively. Hypogonadotropic hypogonadism, hypothyroidism, and growth hormone deficiency are the most common diagnoses. Initial severe TBI and plurihormonal involvement predicted the long-term hypopituitarism. Early hypopituitarism was common in severe TBI, but recovers in majority. Evaluation for the occult pituitary dysfunction is required during the rehabilitation of TBI patients.

Life-Space Mobility Change Predicts 6-Month Mortality.

PubMed

Kennedy, Richard E; Sawyer, Patricia; Williams, Courtney P; Lo, Alexander X; Ritchie, Christine S; Roth, David L; Allman, Richard M; Brown, Cynthia J

2017-04-01

To examine 6-month change in life-space mobility as a predictor of subsequent 6-month mortality in community-dwelling older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community-dwelling older adults from five Alabama counties in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging. A random sample of 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries, stratified according to sex, race, and rural or urban residence, recruited between November 1999 and February 2001, followed by a telephone interview every 6 months for the subsequent 8.5 years. Mortality data were determined from informant contacts and confirmed using the National Death Index and Social Security Death Index. Life-space was measured at each interview using the UAB Life-Space Assessment, a validated instrument for assessing community mobility. Eleven thousand eight hundred seventeen 6-month life-space change scores were calculated over 8.5 years of follow-up. Generalized linear mixed models were used to test predictors of mortality at subsequent 6-month intervals. Three hundred fifty-four deaths occurred within 6 months of two sequential life-space assessments. Controlling for age, sex, race, rural or urban residence, and comorbidity, life-space score and life-space decline over the preceding 6-month interval predicted mortality. A 10-point decrease in life-space resulted in a 72% increase in odds of dying over the subsequent 6 months (odds ratio = 1.723, P < .001). Life-space score at the beginning of a 6-month interval and change in life-space over 6 months were each associated with significant differences in subsequent 6-month mortality. Life-space assessment may assist clinicians in identifying older adults at risk of short-term mortality. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

The value of a comprehensive geriatric assessment for patient care in acutely hospitalized older patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hamaker, Marije E; Buurman, Bianca M; van Munster, Barbara C; Kuper, Ingeborg M J A; Smorenburg, Carolien H; de Rooij, Sophia E

2011-01-01

A comprehensive geriatric assessment systematically collects information on geriatric conditions and is propagated in oncology as a useful tool when assessing older cancer patients. The objectives were: (a) to study the prevalence of geriatric conditions in cancer patients aged ≥ 65 years, acutely admitted to a general medicine ward; (b) to determine functional decline and mortality within 12 months after admission; and (c) to assess which geriatric conditions and cancer-related variables are associated with 12-month mortality. This was an observational cohort study of 292 cancer patients aged ≥ 65 years, acutely admitted to the general medicine and oncology wards of two university hospitals and one secondary teaching hospital. Baseline assessments included patient characteristics, reason for admission, comorbidity, and geriatric conditions. Follow-up at 3 and 12 months was aimed at functional decline (loss of one or more activities of daily living [ADL]) and mortality. The median patient age was 74.9 years, and 95% lived independently; 126 patients (43%) had metastatic disease. A high prevalence of geriatric conditions was found for instrumental ADL impairment (78%), depressive symptoms (65%), pain (65%), impaired mobility (48%), malnutrition (46%), and ADL impairment (38%). Functional decline was observed in 8% and 33% of patients at 3 and 12 months, respectively. Mortality rates were 38% at 3 months and 64% at 12 months. Mortality was associated with cancer-related factors only. In these acutely hospitalized older cancer patients, mortality was only associated with cancer-related factors. The prevalence of geriatric conditions in this population was high. Future research is needed to elucidate if addressing these conditions can improve quality of life.

The Value of a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment for Patient Care in Acutely Hospitalized Older Patients with Cancer

PubMed Central

Buurman, Bianca M.; van Munster, Barbara C.; Kuper, Ingeborg M.J.A.; Smorenburg, Carolien H.; de Rooij, Sophia E.

2011-01-01

Introduction. A comprehensive geriatric assessment systematically collects information on geriatric conditions and is propagated in oncology as a useful tool when assessing older cancer patients. Objectives. The objectives were: (a) to study the prevalence of geriatric conditions in cancer patients aged ≥65 years, acutely admitted to a general medicine ward; (b) to determine functional decline and mortality within 12 months after admission; and (c) to assess which geriatric conditions and cancer-related variables are associated with 12-month mortality. Methods. This was an observational cohort study of 292 cancer patients aged ≥65 years, acutely admitted to the general medicine and oncology wards of two university hospitals and one secondary teaching hospital. Baseline assessments included patient characteristics, reason for admission, comorbidity, and geriatric conditions. Follow-up at 3 and 12 months was aimed at functional decline (loss of one or more activities of daily living [ADL]) and mortality. Results. The median patient age was 74.9 years, and 95% lived independently; 126 patients (43%) had metastatic disease. A high prevalence of geriatric conditions was found for instrumental ADL impairment (78%), depressive symptoms (65%), pain (65%), impaired mobility (48%), malnutrition (46%), and ADL impairment (38%). Functional decline was observed in 8% and 33% of patients at 3 and 12 months, respectively. Mortality rates were 38% at 3 months and 64% at 12 months. Mortality was associated with cancer-related factors only. Conclusion. In these acutely hospitalized older cancer patients, mortality was only associated with cancer-related factors. The prevalence of geriatric conditions in this population was high. Future research is needed to elucidate if addressing these conditions can improve quality of life. PMID:21914699

Longitudinal modelling of theory-based depressive vulnerabilities, depression trajectories and poor outcomes post-ACS.

PubMed

Keegan, Conor; Conroy, Ronán; Doyle, Frank

2016-02-01

Depression is associated with increased mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, little is known about the theoretical causes of depression trajectories post-ACS, and whether these trajectories predict subsequent morbidity/mortality. We tested a longitudinal model of depressive vulnerabilities, trajectories and mortality. A prospective observational study of 374 ACS patients was conducted. Participants completed questionnaires on theoretical vulnerabilities (interpersonal life events, reinforcing events, cognitive distortions, and Type D personality) during hospitalisation and depression at baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalisation. Latent class analysis determined trajectories of depression. Path analysis was used to test relationships among vulnerabilities, depression trajectories and outcomes (combination of 1-year morbidity and 7-year mortality). Vulnerabilities independently predicted persistent and subthreshold depression trajectory categories, with effect sizes significantly highest for persistent depression. Both subthreshold and persistent depression trajectories were significant predictors of morbidity/mortality (e.g. persistent depression OR=2.4, 95% CI=1.8-3.1, relative to never depressed). Causality cannot be inferred from these associations. We had no measures of history of depression or treatments, which may affect associations. Theoretical vulnerabilities predicted depression trajectories, which in turn predicted increased morbidity/mortality, demonstrating for the first time a potential longitudinal chain of events post-ACS. This longitudinal model has important practical implications as clinicians can use vulnerability measures to identify those at most risk of poor outcomes. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

[Adherence to pharmaceutical guidance in patients over 85 years of age with chronic heart failure-stage C. Effects on 12-month mortality].

PubMed

Esteve Arríen, Ainhoa; Domínguez de Pablos, Gema; Minaya Saiz, Jesús

2009-01-01

To describe factors related to prescription on discharge of treatment for Chronic Heart Failure(CHF)-Stage C and to analyse whether this is related to 12month-mortality. Observational follow-up study of patients over 85 hospitalized during 2006/7 with Stage C-Chronic Heart Failure in an outskirt support hospital. Drug-prescription adherence was assessed according to the American Heart Society 2005-Guidelines and recommendations of the American Geriatrics Society-2007. A multivariate analysis of logistic regression was performed to obtain odds for 12-month mortality for each recommended therapy, adjusting by mortality risk factors. 104 patients aged 90+/-3yr were followed on discharge, 85% of which were women. NYHA-classes were distributed NYHA I-28,2%, II-37,9%, III-30,1%, IV-3,9%. Most frequently prescribed drugs were loop diuretics (83,3%) and IACEs/ARB (62%), and the less frequent beta-blockers (19,1%). IACEs/ARB were prescribed to those with lower functional impairment (p=0.04), and beta-blockers to those with worse NYHA class (p=0.02). All recommended prescriptions had a tendency to 12 month mortality risk reduction, even adjusted by age, functional status, co-morbidity, NYHA class and co-morbid atrial fibrillation, except for spironolactone (OR-1,8; IC95% 0,48-17,19). Treatment with CHF disease-modifying therapies except for spironolactone can reduce 12 month risk mortality, also in the oldest old. There exists room for improvement in frequency of drug prescription in this group of age.

Comorbidities and risk of mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Divo, Miguel; Cote, Claudia; de Torres, Juan P; Casanova, Ciro; Marin, Jose M; Pinto-Plata, Victor; Zulueta, Javier; Cabrera, Carlos; Zagaceta, Jorge; Hunninghake, Gary; Celli, Bartolome

2012-07-15

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are afflicted by comorbidities. Few studies have prospectively evaluated COPD comorbidities and mortality risk. To prospectively evaluate COPD comorbidities and mortality risk. We followed 1,664 patients with COPD in five centers for a median of 51 months. Systematically, 79 comorbidities were recorded. We calculated mortality risk using Cox proportional hazard, and developed a graphic representation of the prevalence and strength of association to mortality in the form of a "comorbidome". A COPD comorbidity index (COPD specific comorbidity test [COTE]) was constructed based on the comorbidities that increase mortality risk using a multivariate analysis. We tested the COTE index as predictor of mortality and explored whether the COTE index added predictive information when used with the validated BODE index. Fifteen of 79 comorbidities differed in prevalence between survivors and nonsurvivors. Of those, 12 predicted mortality and were integrated into the COTE index. Increases in the COTE index were associated with an increased risk of death from COPD-related (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.18; P < 0.001) and non-COPD-related causes (HR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.21; P < 0.001). Further, increases in the BODE and COTE were independently associated with increased risk of death. A COTE score of greater than or equal to 4 points increased by 2.2-fold the risk of death (HR, 2.26-2.68; P < 0.001) in all BODE quartile. Comorbidities are frequent in COPD and 12 of them negatively influence survival. A simple disease-specific comorbidities index (COTE) helps assess mortality risk in patients with COPD.

Early mortality in multiple myeloma: the time-dependent impact of comorbidity: A population-based study in 621 real-life patients.

PubMed

Ríos-Tamayo, Rafael; Sáinz, Juan; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Puerta, José Manuel; Chang, Daysi-Yoe-Ling; Rodríguez, Teresa; Garrido, Pilar; de Veas, José Luís García; Romero, Antonio; Moratalla, Lucía; López-Fernández, Elisa; González, Pedro Antonio; Sánchez, María José; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan; Jurado, Manuel; Lahuerta, Juan José

2016-07-01

Multiple myeloma is a heterogeneous disease with variable survival; this variability cannot be fully explained by the current systems of risk stratification. Early mortality remains a serious obstacle to further improve the trend toward increased survival demonstrated in recent years. However, the definition of early mortality is not standardized yet. Importantly, no study has focused on the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma to date. Therefore, we analyzed the role of baseline comorbidity in a large population-based cohort of 621 real-life myeloma patients over a 31-year period. To evaluate early mortality, a sequential multivariate regression model at 2, 6, and 12 months from diagnosis was performed. It was demonstrated that comorbidity had an independent impact on early mortality, which is differential and time-dependent. Besides renal failure, respiratory disease at 2 months, liver disease at 6 months, and hepatitis virus C infection at 12 months, were, respectively, associated with early mortality, adjusting for other well-established prognostic factors. On the other hand, the long-term monitoring in our study points out a modest downward trend in early mortality over time. This is the first single institution population-based study aiming to assess the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma. It is suggested that early mortality should be analyzed at three key time points (2, 6, and 12 months), in order to allow comparisons between studies. Comorbidity plays a critical role in the outcome of myeloma patients in terms of early mortality. Am. J. Hematol. 91:700-704, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Non-specific effects of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and measles vaccinations? An analysis of surveillance data from Navrongo, Ghana.

PubMed

Welaga, Paul; Nielsen, Jens; Adjuik, Martin; Debpuur, Cornelius; Ross, David A; Ravn, Henrik; Benn, Christine S; Aaby, Peter

2012-12-01

Studies from low-income countries have suggested that routine vaccinations may have non-specific effects on child mortality; measles vaccine (MV) is associated with lower mortality and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) with relatively higher mortality. We used data from Navrongo, Ghana, to examine the impact of vaccinations on child mortality. Vaccination status was assessed at the initiation of a trial of vitamin A supplementation and after 12 and 24 months of follow-up. Within the placebo group, we compared the mortality over the first 4 months and the full 2 years of follow-up for different vaccination status groups with different likelihoods of additional vaccinations during follow-up. The frequency of additional vaccinations was assessed among children whose vaccination card was seen at 12 and 24 months of follow-up. Among children with a vaccination card, more than 75% received missing DTP or MV during the first 12 months of follow-up, whereas only 25% received these vaccines among children with no vaccination card at enrollment. Children without a card at enrollment had a significant threefold higher mortality over the 2-year follow-up period than those fully vaccinated. The small group of children with DTP3-4 but no MV at enrollment had lower mortality than children without a card and had the same mortality as fully vaccinated children. In contrast, children with 1-2 DTP doses but no MV had a higher mortality during the first 4 months than children without a card [MRR = 1.65 (0.95, 2.87)]; compared with the fully vaccinated children, they had significantly higher mortality after 4 months [MRR = 2.38 (1.07, 5.30)] and after 2 years [MRR = 2.41 (1.41, 4.15)]. Children with 0-2 DTP doses at enrollment had higher mortality after 4 months (MRR = 1.67 (0.82, 3.43) and after 2 years [MRR = 1.85 (1.16, 2.95)] than children who had all three doses of DTP at enrollment. As hypothesised, DTP vaccination was associated with higher child mortality than measles vaccination. To optimise vaccination policies, routine vaccinations need to be evaluated in randomised trials measuring the impact on survival. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Heart rate turbulence predicts all-cause mortality and sudden death in congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Valdes, Mariano; Almendral, Jesus; Cinca, Juan; Caminal, Pere; de Luna, Antoni Bayes

2008-08-01

Abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been documented as a strong predictor of total mortality and sudden death in postinfarction patients, but data in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of HRT for predicting mortality in CHF patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III. In 651 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled into the MUSIC (Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study, the standard HRT parameters turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS), as well as HRT categories, were assessed for predicting total mortality and sudden death. HRT was analyzable in 607 patients, mean age 63 years (434 male), 50% of ischemic etiology. During a median follow up of 44 months, 129 patients died, 52 from sudden death. Abnormal TS and HRT category 2 (HRT2) were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 2.10, CI: 1.41 to 3.12, P <.001 and HR: 2.52, CI: 1.56 to 4.05, P <.001; respectively), sudden death (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.13 to 4.46, P = .021 for HRT2), and death due to heart failure progression (HR: 4.11, CI: 1.84 to 9.19, P <.001 for HRT2) after adjustment for clinical covariates in multivariate analysis. The prognostic value of TS for predicting total mortality was similar in various groups dichotomized by age, gender, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and CHF etiology. TS was found to be predictive for total mortality only in patients with QRS > 120 ms. HRT is a potent risk predictor for both heart failure and arrhythmic death in patients with class II and III CHF.

[Frail-VIG index: Design and evaluation of a new frailty index based on the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment].

PubMed

Amblàs-Novellas, Jordi; Martori, Joan Carles; Molist Brunet, Núria; Oller, Ramon; Gómez-Batiste, Xavier; Espaulella Panicot, Joan

Frailty is closely linked to health results. Frailty indexes (FI) and the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) are multidimensional tools. FI serve to quantitatively measure frailty levels. They have shown to have an excellent correlation with mortality. However, they are infrequently used in clinical practice. Given the need for new, more concise, and pragmatic FI, a new FI is proposed based on a CGA (Frail-VIG Index). A prospective, observational, longitudinal study was conducted, with cohort follow up at 12 months or death. Participants were patients admitted in the Geriatric Unit of the University Hospital of Vic (Barcelona, Spain) during 2014. Contrast of hypothesis log-rank for survival curves according to Frail-VIG index, and analysis of ROC curves were performed to assess prognostic capacity. A total of 590 patients were included (mean age=86.39). Mortality rate at 12 months was 46.4%. The comparative analysis showed statistically significant differences (P<.05) for almost all variables included in the Frail-VIG index. Survival curves also show significant differences (X 2 =445, P<.001) for the different Frail-VIG index scores. The area under the ROC curve at 12 months was 0.9 (0.88-0.92). An administration time of the Index is estimated at less than 10minutes. Results endorse the Frail-VIG index as a simple (as for contents), rapid (for administration time) tool, with discriminative (for situational diagnosis) and predictive capacity (high correlation with mortality). Copyright © 2016 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Coexisting severe frailty and malnutrition predict mortality among the oldest old in nursing homes: A 1-year prospective study.

PubMed

Kamo, Tomohiko; Takayama, Keita; Ishii, Hideaki; Suzuki, Keisuke; Eguchi, Katsuhiko; Nishida, Yuusuke

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship of coexisting severe frailty and malnutrition with all-cause mortality among the oldest old in nursing homes. This study was conducted among all subjects (n=160) aged 85 years and older who lived in two nursing homes of Japan. Information about the health status of participants was gathered from history, medical documentation, test assessing frailty, according to the Canadian Study of Health and Aging-Clinical Frailty Scale (CSHA-CFS) and the Mini Nutritional Assessment Short Form (MNA-SF). Seventy five residents (46.9%) were identified as affected by coexisting severe frailty and malnutrition. After a 12-month follow-up period, 42 (26.3%) residents died. In the Cox regression analysis, coexisting severe frailty and malnutrition, and heart failure were associated with mortality during the 12-month follow-up period among the oldest old nursing home residents (adjusted HR 10.89, 95% CI 4.04-29.33, p<0.0001; and adjusted HR 7.83, 95% CI 3.25-18.88, p<0.0001, respectively). The present study suggests that coexisting severe frailty and malnutrition are very frequent, and coexisting severe frailty and malnutrition are associated with all-cause mortality among the oldest old in nursing homes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal breastfeeding durations for HIV-exposed infants: the impact of maternal ART use, infant mortality and replacement feeding risk.

PubMed

Mallampati, Divya; MacLean, Rachel L; Shapiro, Roger; Dabis, Francois; Engelsmann, Barbara; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Leroy, Valeriane; Lockman, Shahin; Walensky, Rochelle; Rollins, Nigel; Ciaranello, Andrea

2018-04-01

In 2010, the WHO recommended women living with HIV breastfeed for 12 months while taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) to balance breastfeeding benefits against HIV transmission risks. To inform the 2016 WHO guidelines, we updated prior research on the impact of breastfeeding duration on HIV-free infant survival (HFS) by incorporating maternal ART duration, infant/child mortality and mother-to-child transmission data. Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Infant model, we simulated the impact of breastfeeding duration on 24-month HFS among HIV-exposed, uninfected infants. We defined "optimal" breastfeeding durations as those maximizing 24-month HFS. We varied maternal ART duration, mortality rates among breastfed infants/children, and relative risk of mortality associated with replacement feeding ("RRRF"), modelled as a multiplier on all-cause mortality for replacement-fed infants/children (range: 1 [no additional risk] to 6). The base-case simulated RRRF = 3, median infant mortality, and 24-month maternal ART duration. In the base-case, HFS ranged from 83.1% (no breastfeeding) to 90.2% (12-months breastfeeding). Optimal breastfeeding durations increased with higher RRRF values and longer maternal ART durations, but did not change substantially with variation in infant mortality rates. Optimal breastfeeding durations often exceeded the previous WHO recommendation of 12 months. In settings with high RRRF and long maternal ART durations, HFS is maximized when mothers breastfeed longer than the previously-recommended 12 months. In settings with low RRRF or short maternal ART durations, shorter breastfeeding durations optimize HFS. If mothers are supported to use ART for longer periods of time, it is possible to reduce transmission risks and gain the benefits of longer breastfeeding durations. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

Mortality risk and associated factors in HIV-exposed, uninfected children.

PubMed

Arikawa, Shino; Rollins, Nigel; Newell, Marie-Louise; Becquet, Renaud

2016-06-01

With increasing maternal antiretroviral treatment (ART), the number of children newly infected with HIV has declined. However, the possible increased mortality in the large number of HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) children may be of concern. We quantified mortality risks among HEU children and reviewed associated factors. Systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus). We included all studies reporting mortality of HEU children to age 60 months and associated factors. Relative risk of mortality between HEU and HIV-unexposed, uninfected (HUU) children was extracted where relevant. Inverse variance methods were used to adjust for study size. Random-effects models were fitted to obtain pooled estimates. A total of 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis and 13 in the review of associated factors. The pooled cumulative mortality in HEU children was 5.5% (95% CI: 4.0-7.2; I(2) = 94%) at 12 months (11 studies) and 11.0% (95% CI: 7.6-15.0; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (four studies). The pooled risk ratios for the mortality in HEU children compared to HUU children in the same setting were 1.9 (95% CI: 0.9-3.8; I(2) = 93%) at 12 months (four studies) and 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1-5.1; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (three studies). Compared to HUU children, mortality risk in HEU children was about double at both age points, although the association was not statistically significant at 12 months. Interpretation of the pooled estimates is confounded by considerable heterogeneity between studies. Further research is needed to characterise the impact of maternal death and breastfeeding on the survival of HEU infants in the context of maternal ART, where current evidence is limited. © 2016 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Comparative Study of Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Scores for Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Brain Injury.

PubMed

McNett, Molly M; Amato, Shelly; Philippbar, Sue Ann

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare predictive ability of hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and scores obtained using a novel coma scoring tool (the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness [FOUR] scale) on long-term outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury. Preliminary research of the FOUR scale suggests that it is comparable with GCS for predicting mortality and functional outcome at hospital discharge. No research has investigated relationships between coma scores and outcome 12 months postinjury. This is a prospective cohort study. Data were gathered on adult patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to urban level I trauma center. GCS and FOUR scores were assigned at 24 and 72 hours and at hospital discharge. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were assigned at 6 and 12 months. The sample size was n = 107. Mean age was 53.5 (SD = ±21, range = 18-91) years. Spearman correlations were comparable and strongest among discharge GCS and FOUR scores and 12-month outcome (r = .73, p < .000; r = .72, p < .000). Multivariate regression models indicate that age and discharge GCS were the strongest predictors of outcome. Areas under the curve were similar for GCS and FOUR scores, with discharge scores occupying the largest areas. GCS and FOUR scores were comparable in bivariate associations with long-term outcome. Discharge coma scores performed best for both tools, with GCS discharge scores predictive in multivariate models.

The 6-Minute-Walk Distance Test as a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Stratification Tool. Insights from the COPD Biomarker Qualification Consortium.

PubMed

Celli, Bartolome; Tetzlaff, Kay; Criner, Gerard; Polkey, Michael I; Sciurba, Frank; Casaburi, Richard; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Kawata, Ariane; Merrill, Debora; Rennard, Stephen

2016-12-15

The 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) test predicts mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Whether variability in study type (observational vs. interventional) or region performed limits use of the test as a stratification tool or outcome measure for therapeutic trials is unclear. To analyze the original data from several large observational studies and from randomized clinical trials with bronchodilators to support the qualification of the 6MWD test as a drug development tool in COPD. Original data from 14,497 patients with COPD from six observational (n = 9,641) and five interventional (n = 4,856) studies larger than 100 patients and longer than 6 months in duration were included. The geographical, anthropometrics, FEV 1 , dyspnea, comorbidities, and health status scores were measured. Associations between 6MWD and mortality, hospitalizations, and exacerbations adjusted by study type, age, and sex were evaluated. Thresholds for outcome prediction were calculated using receiver operating curves. The change in 6MWD after inhaled bronchodilator treatment and surgical lung volume reduction were analyzed to evaluate the responsiveness of the test as an outcome measure. The 6MWD was significantly lower in nonsurvivors, those hospitalized, or who exacerbated compared with those without events at 6, 12, and greater than 12 months. At these time points, the 6MWD receiver operating characteristic curve-area under the curve to predict mortality was 0.71, 0.70, and 0.68 and for hospitalizations was 0.61, 0.60, and 0.59, respectively. After treatment, the 6MWD was not different between placebo and bronchodilators but increased after surgical lung volume reduction compared with medical therapy. Variation across study types (observational or therapeutic) or regions did not confound the ability of 6MWD to predict outcome. The 6MWD test can be used to stratify patients with COPD for clinical trials and interventions aimed at modifying exacerbations, hospitalizations, or death.

The 6-Minute-Walk Distance Test as a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Stratification Tool. Insights from the COPD Biomarker Qualification Consortium

PubMed Central

Tetzlaff, Kay; Criner, Gerard; Polkey, Michael I.; Sciurba, Frank; Casaburi, Richard; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Kawata, Ariane; Merrill, Debora; Rennard, Stephen

2016-01-01

Rationale: The 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) test predicts mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Whether variability in study type (observational vs. interventional) or region performed limits use of the test as a stratification tool or outcome measure for therapeutic trials is unclear. Objectives: To analyze the original data from several large observational studies and from randomized clinical trials with bronchodilators to support the qualification of the 6MWD test as a drug development tool in COPD. Methods: Original data from 14,497 patients with COPD from six observational (n = 9,641) and five interventional (n = 4,856) studies larger than 100 patients and longer than 6 months in duration were included. The geographical, anthropometrics, FEV1, dyspnea, comorbidities, and health status scores were measured. Associations between 6MWD and mortality, hospitalizations, and exacerbations adjusted by study type, age, and sex were evaluated. Thresholds for outcome prediction were calculated using receiver operating curves. The change in 6MWD after inhaled bronchodilator treatment and surgical lung volume reduction were analyzed to evaluate the responsiveness of the test as an outcome measure. Measurements and Main Results: The 6MWD was significantly lower in nonsurvivors, those hospitalized, or who exacerbated compared with those without events at 6, 12, and greater than 12 months. At these time points, the 6MWD receiver operating characteristic curve–area under the curve to predict mortality was 0.71, 0.70, and 0.68 and for hospitalizations was 0.61, 0.60, and 0.59, respectively. After treatment, the 6MWD was not different between placebo and bronchodilators but increased after surgical lung volume reduction compared with medical therapy. Variation across study types (observational or therapeutic) or regions did not confound the ability of 6MWD to predict outcome. Conclusions: The 6MWD test can be used to stratify patients with COPD for clinical trials and interventions aimed at modifying exacerbations, hospitalizations, or death. PMID:27332504

Household air pollution from use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality: The role of breastfeeding status and kitchen location in Pakistan.

PubMed

Naz, Sabrina; Page, Andrew; Agho, Kingsley Emwinyore

2017-01-01

Household air pollution (HAP) mainly from cooking fuel is one of the major causes of respiratory illness and deaths among young children in low and middle-income countries like Pakistan. This study investigates for the first time the association between HAP from cooking fuel and under-five mortality using the 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) data. Multi-level logistic regression models were used to examine the association between HAP and under-five mortality in a total of 11,507 living children across four age-groups (neonatal aged 0-28 days, post-neonatal aged 1-11 months, child aged 12-59 months and under-five aged 0-59 months). Use of cooking fuel was weakly associated with total under-five mortality (OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 0.92-1.64, P = 0.170), with stronger associations evident for sub-group analyses of children aged 12-59 months (OR = 1.98, 95%CI = 0.75-5.25, P = 0.169). Strong associations between use of cooking fuel and mortality were evident (ORs >5) in those aged 12-59 months for households without a separate kitchen using polluting fuels, and in children whose mother never breastfed. The results of this study suggest that HAP from cooking fuel is associated with a modest increase in the risk of death among children under five years of age in Pakistan, but particularly in those aged 12-59 months, and those living in poorer socioeconomic conditions. To reduce exposure to cooking fuel which is a preventable determinant of under-five mortality in Pakistan, the challenge remains to promote behavioural interventions such as breastfeeding in infancy period, keeping young children away from the cooking area, and improvements in housing and kitchen design.

Effects of intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation pump on mortality of acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Ye, Liwen; Zheng, Minming; Chen, Qingwei; Li, Guiqion; Deng, Wei; Ke, Dazhi

2014-01-01

Several randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated the effect of intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation pump(IABP) on the mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). To analyze the relevant RCT data on the effect of IABP on mortality and the occurrence of bleeding in AMI. Published RCTs on the treatment of AMI by IABP were retrieved in searches of Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane and other related databases. The last search was conducted on July 20, 2014. Randomized clinical trials comparing IABP to controls as treatment for AMI. Patients with AMI. The primary endpoint was mortality, and the secondary endpoint was bleeding events. To account for to heterogeneity, a random-effects model was used to analyze the study data. Ten trials with a total population of 973 patients that were included in the analysis showed no significant difference in 2-month mortality between the IABP and the control groups. The 6-month mortality in the IABP group was not significantly lower than in the control group in the four RCTs that enrolled 59 AMI patients with CS. But in the four that enrolled AMI 66 patients without CS, the data showed opposite conclusion. IABP cannot reduce within 2 months and 6-12 months mortality of AMI patients with CS as well as within 2 months mortality of AMI patients without CS, but can reduce 6-12 months mortality of AMI patients without CS. In addition, IABP can increase the risk of bleeding.

Comparison of AIMS65, Glasgow–Blatchford score, and Rockall score in a European series of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: performance when predicting in-hospital and delayed mortality

PubMed Central

Martínez-Cara, Juan G; Jiménez-Rosales, Rita; Úbeda-Muñoz, Margarita; de Hierro, Mercedes López; de Teresa, Javier

2015-01-01

Objective AIMS65 is a score designed to predict in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and costs of gastrointestinal bleeding. Our aims were to revalidate AIMS65 as predictor of inpatient mortality and to compare AIMS65’s performance with that of Glasgow–Blatchford (GBS) and Rockall scores (RS) with regard to mortality, and the secondary outcomes of a composite endpoint of severity, transfusion requirements, rebleeding, delayed (6-month) mortality, and length of stay. Methods The study included 309 patients. Clinical and biochemical data, transfusion requirements, endoscopic, surgical, or radiological treatments, and outcomes for 6 months after admission were collected. Clinical outcomes were in-hospital mortality, delayed mortality, rebleeding, composite endpoint, blood transfusions, and length of stay. Results In receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses, AIMS65, GBS, and RS were similar when predicting inpatient mortality (0.76 vs. 0.78 vs. 0.78). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AIMS65 and GBS were identical (0.62 vs. 0.62). AIMS65 was useless when predicting rebleeding compared to GBS or RS (0.56 vs. 0.70 vs. 0.71). GBS was better at predicting the need for transfusions. No patient with AIMS65 = 0, GBS ≤ 6, or RS ≤ 4 died. Considering the composite endpoint, an AIMS65 of 0 did not exclude high risk patients, but a GBS ≤ 1 or RS ≤ 2 did. The three scores were similar in predicting prolonged in-hospital stay. Delayed mortality was better predicted by AIMS65. Conclusion AIMS65 is comparable to GBS and RS in essential endpoints such as inpatient mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and length of stay. GBS is a better score predicting rebleeding and the need for transfusion, but AIMS65 shows a better performance predicting delayed mortality. PMID:27403303

High mortality in patients with influenza A pH1N1 2009 admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit: a predictive model of mortality.

PubMed

Torres, Silvio Fabio; Iolster, Thomas; Schnitzler, Eduardo Julio; Farias, Julio Alberto; Bordogna, Adriana Claudia; Rufach, Daniel; Montes, María José; Siaba, Alejandro Javier; Rodríguez, María Gabriela; Jabornisky, Roberto; Colman, Carmen; Fernández, Analia; Caprotta, Gustavo; Diaz, Silvia; Poterala, Roxana; De Meyer, Marcela; Penazzi, Matías Enrique; González, Gustavo; Saenz, Silvia; Recupero, Oscar; Zapico, Luis; Alarcon, Blanca; Ariel, Esen; Minces, Pablo; Mari, Eduardo; Carnie, Antonio; Garea, Mónica; Jaen, Roxana

2012-03-01

To describe the clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to pediatric intensive care with influenza A (pH1N1) 2009 in Argentina. Retrospective observational study. Thirteen pediatric intensive care units in Argentina. One hundred and forty-two patients with confirmed or suspected influenza A (H1N1). None. We included 142 critically ill patients. The median age was 19 months (range, 2-110 months) with 39% of the patients <24 months of age. Ninety-nine patients (70%) had an underlying disease. Influenza A (pH1N1) 2009 infection was confirmed in 90 patients and the remaining 52 had a positive direct immunofluorescence assay for influenza A. The median length of stay in the pediatric intensive care unit was 12 days (range, 2-52 days). One hundred eighteen patients (83%) received invasive mechanical ventilation and 19 patients were treated with noninvasive ventilation; however, seven of the patients receiving noninvasive ventilation later needed mechanical ventilation. Sixty-eight patients died (47%) with the most frequent cause refractory hypoxemia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age <24 months (odds ratio, 2.87; 2.35-3.93), asthma (odds ratio, 1.34; 1.20-2.91), and respiratory coinfection with respiratory syncytial virus (odds ratio, 2.92; 1.20-4.10) were associated with higher mortality. As expected, mechanical ventilation and treatment with inotropes were also associated with increased mortality. The mortality of children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit with 2009 pH1N1 influenza was high (47%) in our population. Age <24 months, asthma, respiratory coinfection, need of mechanical ventilation, and treatment with inotropes were predictors of poorer outcome.

Executive function processes predict mobility outcomes in older adults.

PubMed

Gothe, Neha P; Fanning, Jason; Awick, Elizabeth; Chung, David; Wójcicki, Thomas R; Olson, Erin A; Mullen, Sean P; Voss, Michelle; Erickson, Kirk I; Kramer, Arthur F; McAuley, Edward

2014-02-01

To examine the relationship between performance on executive function measures and subsequent mobility outcomes in community-dwelling older adults. Randomized controlled clinical trial. Champaign-Urbana, Illinois. Community-dwelling older adults (N = 179; mean age 66.4). A 12-month exercise trial with two arms: an aerobic exercise group and a stretching and strengthening group. Established cognitive tests of executive function (flanker task, task switching, and a dual-task paradigm) and the Wisconsin card sort test. Mobility was assessed using the timed 8-foot up and go test and times to climb up and down a flight of stairs. Participants completed the cognitive tests at baseline and the mobility measures at baseline and after 12 months of the intervention. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine whether baseline executive function predicted postintervention functional performance after controlling for age, sex, education, cardiorespiratory fitness, and baseline mobility levels. Selective baseline executive function measurements, particularly performance on the flanker task (β = 0.15-0.17) and the Wisconsin card sort test (β = 0.11-0.16) consistently predicted mobility outcomes at 12 months. The estimates were in the expected direction, such that better baseline performance on the executive function measures predicted better performance on the timed mobility tests independent of intervention. Executive functions of inhibitory control, mental set shifting, and attentional flexibility were predictive of functional mobility. Given the literature associating mobility limitations with disability, morbidity, and mortality, these results are important for understanding the antecedents to poor mobility function that well-designed interventions to improve cognitive performance can attenuate. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Predictive Accuracy of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index for Mortality with HIV Infection: A North American Cross Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Justice, AC; Modur, S; Tate, JP; Althoff, KN; Jacobson, LP; Gebo, K; Kitahata, M; Horberg, M; Brooks, J; Buchacz, K; Rourke, SB; Rachlis, A; Napravnik, S; Eron, J; Willig, H; Moore, R; Kirk, GD; Bosch, R; Rodriguez, B; Hogg, RS; Thorne, J; Goedert, JJ; Klein, M; Gill, MJ; Deeks, S; Sterling, TR; Anastos, K; Gange, SJ

2013-01-01

Background By supplementing an index composed of HIV biomarkers and age (Restricted Index) with measures of organ injury, the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index more completely reflects risk of mortality. We compare the accuracy of the VACS and Restricted Indices 1) among subjects outside the Veterans Healthcare System (VA), 2) over 1–5 years of prior exposure to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 3) within important patient subgroups. Methods We used data from 13 cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD, n=10, 835) limiting analyses to HIV-infected subjects with at least 12 months exposure to ART. Variables included demographic, laboratory (CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, hemoglobin, platelets, aspartate and alanine transaminase, creatinine and hepatitis C status), and survival. We used C statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI) to test discrimination varying prior ART exposure from 1–5 years. We then combined VA (n=5,066) and NA-ACCORD data, fit a parametric survival model, and compared predicted to observed mortality by cohort, gender, age, race, and HIV-1 RNA level. Results Mean follow-up was 3.3 years (655 deaths). Compared with the Restricted Index, the VACS Index showed greater discrimination (C statistic: 0.77 vs. 0.74; NRI 12%; p<0.0001). NRI was highest among those with HIV-1 RNA<500 copies/ml (25%) and age ≥50 years (20%). Predictions were similar to observed mortality among all subgroups. Conclusion VACS Index scores discriminate risk and translate into accurate mortality estimates over 1–5 years of exposures to ART and for diverse patient subgroups from North American PMID:23187941

[Karnosfsky index as a mortality predicting factor in patients on home-based enteral nutrition].

PubMed

Puiggròs, C; Lecha, M; Rodríguez, T; Pérez-Portabella, C; Planas, M

2009-01-01

Karnofsky Index (KI) is a widely used functional scale developed for oncology patients. It has proved useful as outcome predictor with cancer and geriatric patients. Theoretically, KI could be used to predict mortality in patients with home enteral nutrition (HEN). To determine baseline KI and its 6-month evolution in HEN patients, and to assess its relation with the mortality rate. Observational and prospective study carried out during 2002 and 2003 with tube feeding neurologic and cancer patients followed during 10 months since their HEN programme inclusion. 201 patients were included, 131 (65.2%) with neurological diseases and 70 (34.8%) with neoplasm. There were not significant differences between groups in age, days with HEN and mortality rate at the end of the study period (35.1% in neurologic patients and 40% in cancer ones). 27.1% of cancer patients had resumed full oral nutrition after ten months from the beginning of the study, whereas only 10.7% of neurologic patients did (p < 0.05). In the three measurement phases (initial, past-3 and past-6 months) KI values were higher for cancer patients than for neurologic ones (p < 0.001). In both groups we didn't found statistically significant differences in KI along the three measurements. A significant relation was observed overall between initial KI values and average survival after 10 months (p < 0.001), and an inverse relation was found between the former and mortality rate (p < 0.001). KI is a useful tool to predict mortality rate in cancer and neurologic patients under HEN.

Executive Function Processes Predict Mobility Outcomes in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Gothe, Neha P.; Fanning, Jason; Awick, Elizabeth; Chung, David; Wójcicki, Thomas R.; Olson, Erin A.; Mullen, Sean P.; Voss, Michelle; Erickson, Kirk I.; Kramer, Arthur F.; McAuley, Edward

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence suggesting an association between cognitive function and physical performance in late life. This study examined the relationship between performance on executive function measures and subsequent mobility outcomes among community dwelling older adults across a 12-month randomized controlled exercise trial. DESIGN: Randomized controlled clinical trial SETTING: Champaign-Urbana, Illinois PARTICIPANTS: Community dwelling older adults (N = 179; Mage = 66.4) INTERVENTION: A 12-month exercise trial with two arms: an aerobic exercise group and a stretching and strengthening group MEASUREMENTS: Established cognitive tests of executive function including the flanker task, task switching and a dual task paradigm, and the Wisconsin card sort test. Mobility was assessed using the timed 8-foot up and go test and times to climb up and down a flight of stairs. METHODS: Participants completed the cognitive measures at baseline and the mobility measures at baseline and after 12 months of the intervention. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine whether baseline executive function predicted post-intervention functional performance after controlling for age, sex, education, cardiorespiratory fitness and baseline mobility levels. RESULTS: Our analyses revealed that selective baseline executive function measures, particularly performance on the flanker task (β’s =.15 to .17) and the Wisconsin card sort test (β’s =.11 to .16) consistently predicted mobility outcomes at month 12. The estimates were in the expected direction, such that better baseline performance on the executive function measures predicted better performance on the timed mobility tests independent of the intervention group. CONCLUSION: Executive functions of inhibitory control, mental set shifting and attentional flexibility were predictive of functional mobility. Given the literature associating mobility limitations with disability, morbidity, and mortality, these results are important for understanding the antecedents to poor mobility function that can be attenuated by well-designed interventions to improve cognitive performance. PMID:24521364

Multi-dimensional scores to predict mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis undergoing lung transplantation assessment.

PubMed

Fisher, Jolene H; Al-Hejaili, Faris; Kandel, Sonja; Hirji, Alim; Shapera, Shane; Mura, Marco

2017-04-01

The heterogeneous progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) makes prognostication difficult and contributes to high mortality on the waitlist for lung transplantation (LTx). Multi-dimensional scores (Composite Physiologic index [CPI], [Gender-Age-Physiology [GAP]; RIsk Stratification scorE [RISE]) demonstrated enhanced predictive power towards outcome in IPF. The lung allocation score (LAS) is a multi-dimensional tool commonly used to stratify patients assessed for LTx. We sought to investigate whether IPF-specific multi-dimensional scores predict mortality in patients with IPF assessed for LTx. The study included 302 patients with IPF who underwent a LTx assessment (2003-2014). Multi-dimensional scores were calculated. The primary outcome was 12-month mortality after assessment. LTx was considered as competing event in all analyses. At the end of the observation period, there were 134 transplants, 63 deaths, and 105 patients were alive without LTx. Multi-dimensional scores predicted mortality with accuracy similar to LAS, and superior to that of individual variables: area under the curve (AUC) for LAS was 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 86%); CPI 0.75 (sensitivity 67%, specificity 82%); GAP 0.67 (sensitivity 59%, specificity 74%); RISE 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 84%). A separate analysis conducted only in patients actively listed for LTx (n = 247; 50 deaths) yielded similar results. In patients with IPF assessed for LTx as well as in those actually listed, multi-dimensional scores predict mortality better than individual variables, and with accuracy similar to the LAS. If validated, multi-dimensional scores may serve as inexpensive tools to guide decisions on the timing of referral and listing for LTx. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants and predictors of outcome in super refractory status epilepticus--a developing country perspective.

PubMed

Jayalakshmi, Sita; Ruikar, Devashish; Vooturi, Sudhindra; Alladi, Suvarna; Sahu, Sambit; Kaul, Subhash; Mohandas, Surath

2014-11-01

Super refractory status epilepticus (SRSE) is a recent entity. There is limited information about the etiology and outcome of SRSE from developing countries. We evaluated determinants and predictors of outcome in patients with convulsive SRSE in Indian population. In this open cohort study, data of patients with convulsive SE admitted in neurointensive care unit (NICU) from 2005 to 2013 was retrospectively analyzed. Regression and survival analysis was done for outcome of patients divided into non refractory SE (NRSE), refractory SE (RSE), and SRSE groups. The primary outcome for analysis was in hospital mortality. Also functional outcome at 6 months was graded according to the Glasgow outcome scale (GOS), and classified as good (GOS 4 and 5) and poor (GOS 1, 2 and 3) outcome groups. Out of 177 patients with SE, 105 (59.3%) had NRSE; 72 (40.7%) had RSE of which 30 (16.9% of 177) were sub-classified as SRSE. SRSE was frequent (39%) in children (p<0.01), elderly (21.7%; p<0.003), and in incident SE (82.1%, p=0.05). Encephalitis was the commonest etiology in RSE (30.9%, p=0.015), SRSE (66.7%, p<0.001) than NRSE (12.3%). Encephalitis (β=8.250 (1.8-37.82); p=0.007) was the determinant of the progression of SE to SRSE. Overall mortality was 19.2%, highest in SRSE (40.0%) followed by RSE (35.7%), both significantly (p<0.001) higher than NRSE (6.7%). Mortality was high in patients with encephalitis than other etiologies (39.1% vs. 12.1%; p=0.001). Acidosis predicted mortality in the entire cohort (β=7.313 (1.6-32.58); p=0.009); however none of the variables predicted mortality in SRSE patients. At 6 months follow up only 33.3% of patients with SRSE were in GOS good outcome group when compared to RSE (33.3% vs. 57.1%; p=0.055), and NRSE (33.3% vs. 79.1%; p<0.0001). SRSE is common in children, elderly, and incident SE. Encephalitis was the determinant of progression of SE to SRSE. None of the variables predicted mortality in SRSE patients. Sixty percent of patients with SRSE survived and one third had good outcome. Therefore one should continue the care inspite of weeks of SE. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation and Mortality Among Infants Diagnosed With HIV in the First 12 Weeks of Life: Experiences From Kinshasa, DR Congo and Blantyre, Malawi.

PubMed

Sheahan, Anna; Feinstein, Lydia; Dube, Queen; Edmonds, Andrew; Chirambo, Chawanangwa Mahebere; Smith, Emily; Behets, Frieda; Heyderman, Robert; Van Rie, Annelies

2017-07-01

Based on clinical trial results, the World Health Organization recommends infant HIV testing at age 4-6 weeks and immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in all HIV-infected infants. Little is known about the outcomes of HIV-infected infants diagnosed with HIV in the first weeks of life in resource-limited settings. We assessed ART initiation and mortality in the first year of life among infants diagnosed with HIV by 12 weeks of age. Cohort of HIV-infected infants in Kinshasa and Blantyre diagnosed before 12 weeks to estimate 12-month cumulative incidences of ART initiation and mortality, accounting for competing risks. Multivariate models were used to estimate associations between infant characteristics and timing of ART initiation. One hundred and twenty-one infants were diagnosed at a median age of 7 weeks (interquartile range, 6-8). The cumulative incidence of ART initiation was 46% [95% confidence interval (CI), 36%, 55%] at 6 months and 70% (95% CI 60%, 78%) at 12 months. Only age at HIV diagnosis was associated with ART initiation by age 6 months, with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI 0.52, 0.91) for each week increase in age at DNA polymerase chain reaction test. The 12-month cumulative incidence of mortality was 20% (95% CI 13%, 28%). Despite early diagnosis of HIV, ART initiation was slow and mortality remained high, underscoring the complexity in translating clinical trial findings and World Health Organization's guidance into real-life practice. Novel and creative health system interventions will be required to ensure that all HIV-infected infants achieve optimal treatment outcomes under routine care settings.

Late HIV Diagnosis: Proposed Common Definitions and Associations With Short-Term Mortality.

PubMed

Jiang, Hongbo; Xie, Nianhua; Liu, Jianhua; Zhang, Zhixia; Liu, Li; Yao, Zhongzhao; Wang, Xia; Nie, Shaofa

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to present a definition of late presentation according to different time periods between initial diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) diagnosis which would reliably identify individuals with high risk of mortality within 1 year of diagnosis, and could be used as a suggested common definition.Data of individuals diagnosed from 1994 to February 2012 in Wuhan, China were extracted retrospectively from the national HIV surveillance system. Four time periods (1, 3, 6, and 12 months) combined with the European consensus definition of advanced HIV disease (AHD) were compared. The predictive ability of each definition for identifying an individual who died within 1 year after HIV diagnosis was assessed.A total of 980 patients were included, of whom 289 (29.49%), 324 (33.06%), 353 (36.02%), and 387 (39.49%) were defined as AHD according to the definition of a CD4 count <200 cells/μL or AIDS-defining event (ADE) within 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of HIV diagnosis, respectively. One hundred twenty-seven (12.96%) patients died within 1 year of diagnosis. The highest Youden's index and largest area under the curve were presented in time period within 3 months. Time period within 1 month presented the highest consistency rate, positive likelihood ratio, and kappa value. Longer time periods increased the sensitivity but decreased the specificity.Given the European consensus definitions and the current results, we suggested that AHD could be defined as "a first-reported CD4 count <200 cells/μL or an ADE within 1 month after HIV diagnosis." "Late presentation" could be defined as "a first-reported CD4 count <350 cells/μL or an ADE within 1 month after HIV diagnosis."

Prevalence of hypothalamo pituitary dysfunction in patients of traumatic brain injury

PubMed Central

Hari Kumar, K. V. S.; Swamy, M. N.; Khan, M. A.

2016-01-01

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is common in young soldiers of armed forces leading to significant morbidity and mortality. We studied the prevalence of hypopituitarism following TBI and its association with trauma severity. Materials and Methods: We conducted a 12-month prospective study of 56 TBI patients for the presence of hormonal dysfunction. Hormonal parameters were estimated during the early phase (0–10 days posttraumatically) and after 6 and 12 months. Dynamic testing was done when required, and the results were analyzed by appropriate statistical methods. Results: Hormonal dysfunction was seen in 39 of the 56 (70%) patients at initial assessment. Persisting pituitary deficiencies are seen in 7 and 8 patients at the end of 6 months and 12 months, respectively. Hypogonadotropic hypogonadism, hypothyroidism, and growth hormone deficiency are the most common diagnoses. Initial severe TBI and plurihormonal involvement predicted the long-term hypopituitarism. Conclusion: Early hypopituitarism was common in severe TBI, but recovers in majority. Evaluation for the occult pituitary dysfunction is required during the rehabilitation of TBI patients. PMID:27867878

External validation of a multivariable claims-based rule for predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-pulmonary embolism complications.

PubMed

Coleman, Craig I; Peacock, W Frank; Fermann, Gregory J; Crivera, Concetta; Weeda, Erin R; Hull, Michael; DuCharme, Mary; Becker, Laura; Schein, Jeff R

2016-10-22

Low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients may be candidates for outpatient treatment or abbreviated hospital stay. There is a need for a claims-based prediction rule that payers/hospitals can use to risk stratify PE patients. We sought to validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) prediction rule for in-hospital and 30-day outcomes. We used the Optum Research Database from 1/2008-3/2015 and included adults hospitalized for PE (415.1x in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication) and having continuous medical and prescription coverage for ≥6-months prior and 3-months post-inclusion or until death. In-hospital and 30-day mortality and 30-day complications (recurrent venous thromboembolism, rehospitalization or death) were assessed and prognostic accuracies of IMPACT with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. In total, 47,531 PE patients were included. In-hospital and 30-day mortality occurred in 7.9 and 9.4 % of patients and 20.8 % experienced any complication within 30-days. Of the 19.5 % of patients classified as low-risk by IMPACT, 2.0 % died in-hospital, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 95.2 % (95 % CI, 94.4-95.8) and 20.7 % (95 % CI, 20.4-21.1). Only 1 additional low-risk patient died within 30-days of admission and 12.2 % experienced a complication, translating into a sensitivity and specificity of 95.9 % (95 % CI, 95.3-96.5) and 21.1 % (95 % CI, 20.7-21.5) for mortality and 88.5 % (95 % CI, 87.9-89.2) and 21.6 % (95 % CI, 21.2-22.0) for any complication. IMPACT had acceptable sensitivity for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality or complications and may be valuable for retrospective risk stratification of PE patients.

Proposal for a New Predictive Model of Short-Term Mortality After Living Donor Liver Transplantation due to Acute Liver Failure.

PubMed

Chung, Hyun Sik; Lee, Yu Jung; Jo, Yun Sung

2017-02-21

BACKGROUND Acute liver failure (ALF) is known to be a rapidly progressive and fatal disease. Various models which could help to estimate the post-transplant outcome for ALF have been developed; however, none of them have been proved to be the definitive predictive model of accuracy. We suggest a new predictive model, and investigated which model has the highest predictive accuracy for the short-term outcome in patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) due to ALF. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data from a total 88 patients were collected retrospectively. King's College Hospital criteria (KCH), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were calculated. Univariate analysis was performed, and then multivariate statistical adjustment for preoperative variables of ALF prognosis was performed. A new predictive model was developed, called the MELD conjugated serum phosphorus model (MELD-p). The individual diagnostic accuracy and cut-off value of models in predicting 3-month post-transplant mortality were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The difference in AUC between MELD-p and the other models was analyzed. The diagnostic improvement in MELD-p was assessed using the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS The MELD-p and MELD scores had high predictive accuracy (AUC >0.9). KCH and serum phosphorus had an acceptable predictive ability (AUC >0.7). The CTP classification failed to show discriminative accuracy in predicting 3-month post-transplant mortality. The difference in AUC between MELD-p and the other models had statistically significant associations with CTP and KCH. The cut-off value of MELD-p was 3.98 for predicting 3-month post-transplant mortality. The NRI was 9.9% and the IDI was 2.9%. CONCLUSIONS MELD-p score can predict 3-month post-transplant mortality better than other scoring systems after LDLT due to ALF. The recommended cut-off value of MELD-p is 3.98.

Which dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma benefit most from chemotherapy after surgery? Results from an individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schmidt, A F; Groenwold, R H H; Amsellem, P; Bacon, N; Klungel, O H; Hoes, A W; de Boer, A; Kow, K; Maritato, K; Kirpensteijn, J; Nielen, M

2016-03-01

Osteosarcoma (OS) is a malignant tumor of mesenchymal origin that produces osteoid. Given that the prognosis can vary considerably between dogs, we aimed to explore whether treatment could be tailored towards patient subgroups, characterized by their predicted risk of mortality. For the current study, a subset of five nonrandomized studies (400 subjects of whom 88 were dead at 5 months follow-up) was used from a previously published 20 study individual patient data meta-analysis. Missing data was dependent on observed variables and was imputed to correct for this dependency. Based on a previously published multivariable prognostic model, the 5-month mortality risk was predicted. Subsequently, in surgically treated dogs, using a logistic regression model with a random intercept for a study indicator, we explored whether chemotherapy effectiveness depended on predicted 5-month mortality risk. After adjustment for potential confounders the main effect of any chemotherapy was 0.48 (odds ratio) (95%CI 0.30; 0.78). Testing for chemotherapy by predicted 5-month mortality risk interaction revealed that the effects of any chemotherapy decreased with increasing predicted risk; interaction OR 3.41 (1.07; 10.84). Results from individually comparing carboplatin, cisplatin, doxorubicin and doxorubicin combination therapy to no chemotherapy, were similar in magnitude and direction. These results indicate that the main treatment effects of chemotherapy do not necessarily apply to all patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mortality and cardiovascular morbidity within 30 days of discharge following acute coronary syndrome in a contemporary European cohort of patients: How can early risk prediction be improved? The six-month GRACE risk score.

PubMed

Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; Abu-Assi, Emad; Cambeiro-González, Cristina; Álvarez-Álvarez, Belén; Pereira-López, Eva; Gestal-Romaní, Santiago; Pedreira-López, Milagros; Rigueiro-Veloso, Pedro; Virgós-Lamela, Alejandro; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

2015-06-01

Given the increasing focus on early mortality and readmission rates among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), this study was designed to evaluate the accuracy of the GRACE risk score for identifying patients at high risk of 30-day post-discharge mortality and cardiovascular readmission. This was a retrospective study carried out in a single center with 4229 ACS patients discharged between 2004 and 2010. The study endpoint was the combination of 30-day post-discharge mortality and readmission due to reinfarction, heart failure or stroke. One hundred and fourteen patients had 30-day events: 0.7% mortality, 1% reinfarction, 1.3% heart failure, and 0.2% stroke. After multivariate analysis, the six-month GRACE risk score was associated with an increased risk of 30-day events (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04; p<0.001), demonstrating good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.79 ± 0.02) and optimal fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were adequate (78.1% and 63.3%, respectively), and negative predictive value was excellent (99.1%). In separate analyses for each event of interest (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, heart failure and stroke), assessment of the six-month GRACE risk score also demonstrated good discrimination and fit, as well as adequate predictive values. The six-month GRACE risk score is a useful tool to predict 30-day post-discharge death and early cardiovascular readmission. Clinicians may find it simple to use with the online and mobile app score calculator and applicable to clinical daily practice. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of SOFA score in prediction of 30-day outcome of critically ill patients.

PubMed

Safari, Saeed; Shojaee, Majid; Rahmati, Farhad; Barartloo, Alireza; Hahshemi, Behrooz; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Mohammadi, Elham

2016-12-01

Researchers have attempted to design various scoring systems to determine the severity and predict the outcome of critically ill patients. The present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of SOFA score in predicting 1-month outcome of these patients in emergency department. The present study is a prospective cross-sectional study of >18 year old non-trauma critically ill patients presented to EDs of 3 hospitals, Tehran, Iran, during October 2014 to October 2015. Baseline characteristics, SOFA score variables, and 1-month outcome of patients were recorded and screening performance characteristics of the score were calculated using STATA 11 software. 140 patients with the mean age of 68.36 ± 18.62 years (18-95) were included (53.5% male). The most common complaints were decrease in level of consciousness (76.43%) and sepsis (60.0%), were the most frequent final diagnoses. Mean SOFA score of the patients was 7.13 ± 2.36 (minimum 2 and maximum 16). 72 (51.43%) patients died during the following 30 days and 16 (11.43%) patients were affected with multiple organ failure. Area under the ROC curve of SOFA score in predicting mortality of studied patients was 0.73 (95%CI: 0.65-0.81) (Fig. 2). Table 2 depicts screening performance characteristics of this scale in prediction of 1-month mortality in the best cut-off point of ≥7. At this cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity of SOFA in predicting 1-month mortality were 75% and 63.23%, respectively. Findings of the present study showed that SOFA scoring system has fair accuracy in predicting 1-month mortality of critically ill patients. However, until a more reliable scoring system is developed, SOFA might be useful for narrative prediction of patient outcome considering its acceptable likelihood ratios.

Effects of Intra-Aortic Balloon Counterpulsation Pump on Mortality of Acute Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Ye, Liwen; Zheng, Minming; Chen, Qingwei; Li, Guiqion; Deng, Wei; Ke, Dazhi

2014-01-01

Background Several randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated the effect of intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation pump(IABP) on the mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Objectives To analyze the relevant RCT data on the effect of IABP on mortality and the occurrence of bleeding in AMI. Data Sources Published RCTs on the treatment of AMI by IABP were retrieved in searches of Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane and other related databases. The last search was conducted on July 20, 2014. Study Eligibility Criteria Randomized clinical trials comparing IABP to controls as treatment for AMI. Participants Patients with AMI. Synthesis Methods The primary endpoint was mortality, and the secondary endpoint was bleeding events. To account for to heterogeneity, a random-effects model was used to analyze the study data. Results Ten trials with a total population of 973 patients that were included in the analysis showed no significant difference in 2-month mortality between the IABP and the control groups. The 6-month mortality in the IABP group was not significantly lower than in the control group in the four RCTs that enrolled 59 AMI patients with CS. But in the four that enrolled AMI 66 patients without CS, the data showed opposite conclusion. Conclusions IABP cannot reduce within 2 months and 6–12 months mortality of AMI patients with CS as well as within 2 months mortality of AMI patients without CS, but can reduce 6–12 months mortality of AMI patients without CS. In addition, IABP can increase the risk of bleeding. PMID:25268800

The urine output definition of acute kidney injury is too liberal

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction The urine output criterion of 0.5 ml/kg/hour for 6 hours for acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been prospectively validated. Urine output criteria for AKI (AKIUO) as predictors of in-hospital mortality or dialysis need were compared. Methods All admissions to a general ICU were prospectively screened for 12 months and hourly urine output analysed in collection intervals between 1 and 12 hours. Prediction of the composite of mortality or dialysis by urine output was analysed in increments of 0.1 ml/kg/hour from 0.1 to 1 ml/kg/hour and the optimal threshold for each collection interval determined. AKICr was defined as an increase in plasma creatinine ≥26.5 μmol/l within 48 hours or ≥50% from baseline. Results Of 725 admissions, 72% had either AKICr or AKIUO or both. AKIUO (33.7%) alone was more frequent than AKICr (11.0%) alone (P <0.0001). A 6-hour urine output collection threshold of 0.3 ml/kg/hour was associated with a stepped increase in in-hospital mortality or dialysis (from 10% above to 30% less than 0.3 ml/kg/hour). Hazard ratios for in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality were 2.25 (1.40 to 3.61) and 2.15 (1.47 to 3.15) respectively after adjustment for age, body weight, severity of illness, fluid balance, and vasopressor use. In contrast, after adjustment AKIUO was not associated with in-hospital mortality or 1-year mortality. The optimal urine output threshold was linearly related to duration of urine collection (r2 = 0.93). Conclusions A 6-hour urine output threshold of 0.3 ml/kg/hour best associated with mortality and dialysis, and was independently predictive of both hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. This suggests that the current AKI urine output definition is too liberally defined. Shorter urine collection intervals may be used to define AKI using lower urine output thresholds. PMID:23787055

Neurologic examination at 24–48 hours predicts functional outcomes in basilar artery occlusion stroke

PubMed Central

Rangaraju, Srikant; Jovin, Tudor G.; Frankel, Michael; Schonewille, Wouter J.; Algra, Ale; Kappelle, L. Jaap; Nogueira, Raul G.

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Accurate long-term outcome prognostication in basilar artery occlusion (BAO) strokes may guide clinical management in the subacute stage. We determine the prognostic value of the follow-up neurologic examination using the NIH stroke scale (NIHSS) and identify 24–48 hours NIHSS risk categories in BAO patients. Methods Participants of an observational registry of radiologically-confirmed acute BAO (BASICS) with prospectively collected 24–48 hours NIHSS and 1-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores were included. Uni- and multivariable modeling were performed to identify independent predictors of poor outcome. Predictive powers of baseline and 24–48 hour NIHSS for poor outcome (mRS 4–6) and 1-month mortality were determined by Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to identify risk groups. Results 376 of 619 BASICS participants were included of whom 65.4% had poor outcome. In multivariable analyses, 24–48 hours NIHSS (OR=1.28 [1.21–1.35]), history of minor stroke (OR=2.64 [1.04–6.74], time to treatment >6 hours (OR=3.07 [1.35–6.99]) and age (OR 1.02 [0.99–1.04] were retained in the final model as predictors of poor outcome. Prognostic power of 24–48 hours NIHSS was higher than baseline NIHSS for 1-month poor outcome (AUC 0.92 vs. 0.75) and mortality (AUC 0.85 vs. 0.72). CART analysis identified five 24–48 hour NIHSS risk categories with poor outcome rates of 9.4% (NIHSS 0–4), 36% (NIHSS 5–11), 84.3% (NIHSS 12–22), 96.1% (NIHSS 23–27) and 100% (NIHSS≥28). Conclusion 24–48 hour NIHSS accurately predicts 1-month poor outcome and mortality and represents a clinically valuable prognostic tool for the care of BAO patients. PMID:27586683

Prognostic value of degree and types of anaemia on clinical outcomes for hospitalised older patients.

PubMed

Riva, Emma; Colombo, Riccardo; Moreo, Guido; Mandelli, Sara; Franchi, Carlotta; Pasina, Luca; Tettamanti, Mauro; Lucca, Ugo; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio; Nobili, Alessandro

This study investigated in a large sample of in-patients the impact of mild-moderate-severe anaemia on clinical outcomes such as in-hospital mortality, re-admission, and death within three months after discharge. A prospective multicentre observational study, involving older people admitted to 87 internal medicine and geriatric wards, was done in Italy between 2010 and 2012. The main clinical/laboratory data were obtained on admission and discharge. Based on haemoglobin (Hb), subjects were classified in three groups: group 1 with normal Hb, (reference group), group 2 with mildly reduced Hb (10.0-11.9g/dL in women; 10.0-12.9g/dL in men) and group 3 with moderately-severely reduced Hb (<10g/dL in women and men). Patients (2678; mean age 79.2±7.4y) with anaemia (54.7%) were older, with greater functional impairment and more comorbidity. Multivariable analysis showed that mild but not moderate-severe anaemia was associated with a higher risk of hospital re-admission within three months (group 2: OR=1.62; 95%CI 1.21-2.17). Anaemia failed to predict in-hospital mortality, while a higher risk of dying within three months was associated with the degree of Hb reduction on admission (group 2: OR=1.82;95%CI 1.25-2.67; group 3: OR=2.78;95%CI 1.82-4.26) and discharge (group 2: OR=2.37;95%CI 1.48-3.93; group 3: OR=3.70;95%CI 2.14-6.52). Normocytic and macrocytic, but not microcytic anaemia, were associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Mild anaemia predicted hospital re-admission of older in-patients, while three-month mortality risk increased proportionally with anaemia severity. Type and severity of anaemia affected hospital re-admission and mortality, the worst prognosis being associated with normocytic and macrocytic anaemia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intensive Hemodialysis and Mortality Risk in Australian and New Zealand Populations.

PubMed

Marshall, Mark R; Polkinghorne, Kevan R; Kerr, Peter G; Hawley, Carmel M; Agar, John W M; McDonald, Stephen P

2016-04-01

Intensive hemodialysis (HD) is characterized by increased frequency and/or session length compared to conventional HD. Previous analyses from Australia and New Zealand did not suggest benefit with intensive HD, although recent research suggests that relationships have changed. We present updated analyses. Observational cohort study using marginal structural modeling to adjust for changes in renal replacement modality and time-varying medical comorbid conditions. Adults initiating renal replacement therapy since March 31, 1996, followed up through December 31, 2012; this analysis included 40,842 patients over 2,187,689 patient-months. Time-varying renal replacement modality: conventional facility HD (≤3 times per week, ≤6 hours per session), quasi-intensive facility HD (between conventional and intensive), intensive facility HD (≥5 times per week, any hours per session), conventional home HD, quasi-intensive home HD, intensive home HD, peritoneal dialysis, deceased donor kidney transplantation, and living donor kidney transplantation. Patient mortality, with a 3-month lag in primary analyses and 6- and 12-month lags in sensitivity analyses. Conventional facility HD was the reference group. Conventional home HD had a similar mortality risk. For quasi-intensive home HD, mortality risk was lower (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.44-0.73). For intensive home HD, mortality risk was nonsignificantly lower in primary analyses and significantly lower using a 6-month lag (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.20-0.85), but not using a 12-month lag. For quasi-intensive facility HD, mortality risk was nonsignificantly lower in primary analyses, although significantly lower using 6- (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.20-0.85) and 12-month lags (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44-0.80). Mortality risk was similar between intensive and conventional facility HD. For peritoneal dialysis, mortality risk was greater than for conventional facility HD (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12). Kidney transplantation had the lowest mortality risk. Potential residual confounding from limited collection of comorbid condition, socioeconomic, and medication data. There is an emerging HD dose-effect in Australia and New Zealand, with lower mortality risks associated with some of the more intensive HD regimens in these countries. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for mortality caused by hypothalamic obesity in children with hypothalamic tumours.

PubMed

Haliloglu, B; Atay, Z; Guran, T; Abalı, S; Bas, S; Turan, S; Bereket, A

2016-10-01

Hypothalamic obesity (HyOb) is a common complication of childhood hypothalamic tumours. Patients with HyOb probably have a higher mortality rate than those with other types of obesity due in many cases to obstructive sleep apnoea/hypoventilation. To identify predictive factors for mortality caused by HyOb in children. Twenty children with HyOb secondary to hypothalamic tumours that were followed-up for ≥3 years and aged <15 years at diagnosis, and received supraphysiological glucocorticoid treatment for ≤1 month. Mean age at diagnosis was 6.36 ± 3.60 years. Mean body mass index (BMI) Standard deviation of the samples (SDS) increased from 0.77 ± 1.26 to 2.66 ± 1.45 during the first 6 months, but slowed from month 6-12 (2.73 ± 1.35). ΔBMI SDS at 0-6 months was significantly higher in patients aged <6 years at diagnosis than in those aged >6 years at diagnosis (3.71 ± 1.96 vs. 0.83 ± 0.73, P < 0.001). Maximum BMI SDS was also significantly higher in the younger group (3.88 ± 1.39 vs. 2.79 ± 0.64, P < 0.05). In all, four patients died and the mortality rate was significantly higher in the patients with a further increase in BMI SDS > 1 SDS after 6 months of therapy (RR: 8.4, P < 0.05). Both overall mortality and obesity-related mortality rates were higher in the patients aged <6 years at diagnosis (4.5-fold, 7.2-fold higher, respectively, P > 0.05). The mortality rate was also 3.7-fold higher in the patients with a maximum BMI SDS ≥ 3 at any time during the first 3 years after therapy(P > 0.05). An increase in BMI SDS after 6 months of therapy was observed to be a risk factor for mortality caused by HyOb. In addition, age <6 years at diagnosis and a maximum BMI SDS ≥ 3 were associated with a higher mortality rate, indicating that earlier and more aggressive treatment of obesity is required. © 2015 World Obesity.

Utility of the ACC/AHA lesion classification as a predictor of procedural, 30-day and 12-month outcomes in the contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention era.

PubMed

Theuerle, James; Yudi, Matias B; Farouque, Omar; Andrianopoulos, Nick; Scott, Peter; Ajani, Andrew E; Brennan, Angela; Duffy, Stephen J; Reid, Christopher M; Clark, David J

2017-11-15

Correlations between the ACC/AHA coronary lesion classification and clinical outcomes in the contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) era are not well established. We analyzed clinical characteristics and outcomes according to ACC/AHA lesion classification (A, B1, B2, C) in 13,701 consecutive patients from the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry. Patients presenting with STEMI, cardiogenic shock and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were excluded. The primary endpoints were 30-day and 12-month mortality. Secondary endpoints were procedural success as well as 30-day and 12-month major adverse cardiac events. Of the 13,701 patients treated, 1,246 (9.1%) had type A lesions, 5,519 (40.3%) had type B1 lesions, 4,449 (32.5%) had Type B2 lesions and 2,487 (18.2%) had Type C lesions. Patients with type C lesions were more likely to be older and have impaired renal function, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, peripheral vascular disease and prior bypass graft surgery (all P < 0.01). They were also more likely to require rotational atherectomy, drug-eluting stents and longer stent lengths (all P < 0.01). Increasing lesion complexity was associated with lower procedural success (99.6% vs. 99.1% vs. 96.6% vs. 82.7%, P < 0.001) and worse 30-day (0.2% vs. 0.3% vs. 0.7% vs. 0.6%, P < 0.001) and 12-month mortality (2.2% vs. 2.0% vs. 3.2% vs. 2.9%, P <0.01). Kaplan Meier analysis showed complex lesions (type B2 and C) had lower survival at 12-months (P = 0.003). PCI to more complex lesions continues to be associated with lower procedural success rates as well as inferior medium-term clinical outcomes. Thus the ACC/AHA lesion classification should still be calculated preprocedure to predict acute PCI success and clinical outcomes. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Major bleeding events and risk stratification of antithrombotic agents in hemodialysis: Results from the DOPPS

PubMed Central

Sood, Manish M.; Larkina, Maria; Thumma, Jyothi R.; Tentori, Francesca; Gillespie, Brenda W.; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Mendelssohn, David C.; Chan, Kevin; de Sequera, Patricia; Komenda, Paul; Rigatto, Claudio; Robinson, Bruce M.

2013-01-01

Benefits and risks of antithrombotic agents remain unclear in the hemodialysis population. We aimed to determine variation in antithrombotic agent use, rates of major bleeding events, and to determine factors predictive of stroke and bleeding to allow for risk stratification, enabling more rational decisions about using antithrombotic agents. The sample included 48,144 patients in 12 countries in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study Phase I–IV. Antithrombotic agents included oral anticoagulants (OAC), ASA and anti-platelet agents (APA). OAC prescription, comorbidities and vascular access were assessed at study entry; data on clinical events including hospitalization due to bleeding were collected every four months during follow-up. There was wide variation in OAC (0.3–18%), APA (3–25%) and ASA use (8–36%), and major bleeding rates (0.05–0.22 events/year) among countries. Rates of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and bleeding events requiring hospitalization were elevated in patients prescribed OAC across adjusted models. The CHADS2 score predicted the risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients. Gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 12 months was highly predictive of major bleeding events; for patients with previous gastrointestinal bleeding, the rate of bleeding exceeded the rate of stroke by at least 2-fold across categories of CHADS2 score. Prescription of antithrombotic agents varied greatly. The CHADS2 score and a history of gastrointestinal bleeding were predictive of stroke and bleeding events, respectively, with bleeding rates substantially exceeding stroke rates in all groups including patients at high stroke risk. Appropriate risk stratification and a cautious approach should be considered before OAC use in the dialysis population. PMID:23677245

Geriatric and physically oriented rehabilitation improves the ability of independent living and physical rehabilitation reduces mortality: a randomised comparison of 538 patients.

PubMed

Lahtinen, Antti; Leppilahti, Juhana; Harmainen, Samppa; Sipilä, Jaakko; Antikainen, Riitta; Seppänen, Maija-Liisa; Willig, Reeta; Vähänikkilä, Hannu; Ristiniemi, Jukka; Rissanen, Pekka; Jalovaara, Pekka

2015-09-01

To examine effects of physical and geriatric rehabilitation on institutionalisation and mortality after hip fracture. Prospective randomised study. Physically oriented (187 patients), geriatrically oriented (171 patients), and health centre hospital rehabilitation (180 patients, control group). A total of 538 consecutively, independently living patients with non-pathological hip fracture. Patients were evaluated on admission, at 4 and 12 months for social status, residential status, walking ability, use of walking aids, pain in the hip, activities of daily living (ADL) and mortality. Mortality was significantly lower at 4 and 12 months in physical rehabilitation (3.2%, 8.6%) than in geriatric rehabilitation group (9.6%, 18.7%, P=0.026, P=0.005, respectively) or control group (10.6%, 19.4%, P=0.006, P=0.004, respectively). At 4 months more patients in physical (84.4%) and geriatric rehabilitation group (78.0%) were able to live at home or sheltered housing than in control group (71.9%, P=0.0012 and P<0.001, respectively). No significant difference was found between physical rehabilitation and geriatric rehabilitation (P=0.278). Analysis of femoral neck and trochanteric fractures showed that significant difference was true only for femoral neck fractures (physical rehabilitation vs geriatric rehabilitation P=0.308, physical rehabilitation vs control group P<0,001 and geriatric rehabilitation vs control group P<0.001). Effects of intensified rehabilitations disappeared at 12 months. No impact on walking ability or ADL functions was observed. Physical rehabilitation reduced mortality. Physical and geriatric rehabilitation significantly improved the ability of independent living after 4 months especially among the femoral neck fracture patients but this effect could not be seen after 12 months. © The Author(s) 2014.

The prognostic role of stress echocardiography in a contemporary population and the clinical significance of limited apical ischaemia.

PubMed

Papachristidis, Alexandros; Roper, Damian; Cassar Demarco, Daniela; Tsironis, Ioannis; Papitsas, Michael; Byrne, Jonathan; Alfakih, Khaled; Monaghan, Mark J

2016-12-01

In this study, we aim to reassess the prognostic value of stress echocardiography (SE) in a contemporary population and to evaluate the clinical significance of limited apical ischaemia, which has not been previously studied. We included 880 patients who underwent SE. Follow-up data with regards to MACCE (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, any repeat revascularisation and cerebrovascular accident) were collected over 12 months after the SE. Mortality data were recorded over 27.02 ± 4.6 months (5.5-34.2 months). We sought to investigate the predictors of MACCE and all-cause mortality. In a multivariable analysis, only the positive result of SE was predictive of MACCE (HR, 3.71; P = 0.012). The positive SE group was divided into 2 subgroups: (a) inducible ischaemia limited to the apical segments ('apical ischaemia') and (b) ischaemia in any other segments with or without apical involvement ('other positive'). The subgroup of patients with apical ischaemia had a significantly worse outcome compared to the patients with a negative SE (HR, 3.68; P = 0.041) but a similar outcome to the 'other positive' subgroup. However, when investigated with invasive coronary angiography, the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and their rate of revascularisation was considerably lower. Only age (HR, 1.07; P < 0.001) was correlated with all-cause mortality. SE remains a strong predictor of patients' outcome in a contemporary population. A positive SE result was the only predictor of 12-month MACCE. The subgroup of patients with limited apical ischaemia have similar outcome to patients with ischaemia in other segments despite a lower prevalence of CAD and a lower revascularisation rate. © 2016 The authors.

Self-harm hospitalised morbidity and mortality risk using a matched population-based cohort design.

PubMed

Mitchell, Rebecca J; Cameron, Cate M

2018-03-01

Prior and repeated self-harm hospitalisations are common risk factors for suicide. However, few studies have accounted for pre-existing comorbidities and prior hospital use when quantifying the burden of self-harm. The aim is to quantify hospitalisation in the 12 months preceding and re-hospitalisation and mortality risk in the 12 months post a self-harm hospitalisation. A population-based matched cohort using linked hospital and mortality data for individuals ⩾18 years from four Australian jurisdictions. A non-injured comparison cohort was matched on age, gender and residential postcode. Twelve-month pre- and post-index self-harm hospitalisations and mortality were examined. The 11,597 individuals who were hospitalised following self-harm in 2009 experienced 21% higher health service use in the 12 months pre and post the index admission and a higher mortality rate (2.9% vs 0.3%) than their matched counterparts. There were 133 (39.0%) deaths within 2 weeks of hospital discharge and 342 deaths within 12 months of the index hospitalisation in the self-harm cohort. Adjusted rate ratios for hospital readmission were highest for females (2.86; 95% confidence interval: [2.33, 2.52]) and individuals aged 55-64 years (3.96; 95% confidence interval: [2.79, 5.64]). Improved quantification of the burden of self-harm-related hospital use can inform resource allocation for intervention and after-care services for individuals at risk of repeated self-harm. Better assessment of at-risk self-harm behaviour, appropriate referrals and improved post-discharge care, focusing on care continuity, are needed.

Elevations in mortality due to weaning persist into the second year of life among uninfected children born to HIV-infected mothers

PubMed Central

Kuhn, Louise; Sinkala, Moses; Semrau, Katherine; Kankasa, Chipepo; Kasonde, Prisca; Mwiya, Mwiya; Hu, Chih-Chi; Tsai, Wei-Yann; Thea, Donald M.; Aldrovandi, Grace M.

2009-01-01

Background Early weaning has been recommended to reduce postnatal HIV transmission. We evaluated the safety of stopping breastfeeding at different ages for mortality of uninfected children born to HIV-infected mothers. Methods During a trial of early weaning, 958 HIV-infected mothers and their infants were recruited and followed from birth to 24 months in Lusaka, Zambia. Half of the cohort was randomized to wean abruptly at 4 months and the other half to continue breastfeeding. We examined associations between uninfected child mortality and actual breastfeeding duration investigating possible confounding and effect modification. Results The mortality rate among 749 uninfected children was 9.4% by 12 months and 13.6% by 24 months. Weaning during the interval encouraged by the protocol (4-5 months) was associated with a 2.03-fold increased risk of mortality (95% CI: 1.13 - 3.65), weaning 6-11 months a 3.54-fold increase (95% CI: 1.68 - 7.46) and 12-18 months a 4.22-fold increase (95% CI: 1.59 - 11.24). Significant effect modification was detected such that risks associated with weaning were stronger among infants born to mothers with higher CD4 counts (>350 cells/mL). Conclusion Shortening the normal duration of breastfeeding for uninfected children born to HIV-infected mothers living in low resource settings is associated with significant increases mortality extending into the second year of life. Intensive nutritional and counseling interventions reduce, but do not eliminate, this excess mortality. PMID:20047479

Investigating the association of alerts from a national mortality surveillance system with subsequent hospital mortality in England: an interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

Cecil, Elizabeth; Bottle, Alex; Esmail, Aneez; Wilkinson, Samantha; Vincent, Charles; Aylin, Paul P

2018-05-04

To investigate the association between alerts from a national hospital mortality surveillance system and subsequent trends in relative risk of mortality. There is increasing interest in performance monitoring in the NHS. Since 2007, Imperial College London has generated monthly mortality alerts, based on statistical process control charts and using routinely collected hospital administrative data, for all English acute NHS hospital trusts. The impact of this system has not yet been studied. We investigated alerts sent to Acute National Health Service hospital trusts in England in 2011-2013. We examined risk-adjusted mortality (relative risk) for all monitored diagnosis and procedure groups at a hospital trust level for 12 months prior to an alert and 23 months post alert. We used an interrupted time series design with a 9-month lag to estimate a trend prior to a mortality alert and the change in trend after, using generalised estimating equations. On average there was a 5% monthly increase in relative risk of mortality during the 12 months prior to an alert (95% CI 4% to 5%). Mortality risk fell, on average by 61% (95% CI 56% to 65%), during the 9-month period immediately following an alert, then levelled to a slow decline, reaching on average the level of expected mortality within 18 months of the alert. Our results suggest an association between an alert notification and a reduction in the risk of mortality, although with less lag time than expected. It is difficult to determine any causal association. A proportion of alerts may be triggered by random variation alone and subsequent falls could simply reflect regression to the mean. Findings could also indicate that some hospitals are monitoring their own mortality statistics or other performance information, taking action prior to alert notification. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Household air pollution from use of cooking fuel and under-five mortality: The role of breastfeeding status and kitchen location in Pakistan

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Household air pollution (HAP) mainly from cooking fuel is one of the major causes of respiratory illness and deaths among young children in low and middle-income countries like Pakistan. This study investigates for the first time the association between HAP from cooking fuel and under-five mortality using the 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) data. Multi-level logistic regression models were used to examine the association between HAP and under-five mortality in a total of 11,507 living children across four age-groups (neonatal aged 0–28 days, post-neonatal aged 1–11 months, child aged 12–59 months and under-five aged 0–59 months). Use of cooking fuel was weakly associated with total under-five mortality (OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 0.92–1.64, P = 0.170), with stronger associations evident for sub-group analyses of children aged 12–59 months (OR = 1.98, 95%CI = 0.75–5.25, P = 0.169). Strong associations between use of cooking fuel and mortality were evident (ORs >5) in those aged 12–59 months for households without a separate kitchen using polluting fuels, and in children whose mother never breastfed. The results of this study suggest that HAP from cooking fuel is associated with a modest increase in the risk of death among children under five years of age in Pakistan, but particularly in those aged 12–59 months, and those living in poorer socioeconomic conditions. To reduce exposure to cooking fuel which is a preventable determinant of under-five mortality in Pakistan, the challenge remains to promote behavioural interventions such as breastfeeding in infancy period, keeping young children away from the cooking area, and improvements in housing and kitchen design. PMID:28278260

Cross-level interaction between individual socioeconomic status and regional deprivation on overall survival after onset of ischemic stroke: National health insurance cohort sample data from 2002 to 2013.

PubMed

Shin, Jaeyong; Choi, Young; Kim, Seung Woo; Lee, Sang Gyu; Park, Eun-Cheol

2017-08-01

The literature on stroke mortality and neighborhood effect is characterized by studies that are often Western society-oriented, with a lack of racial and cultural diversity. We estimated the effect of cross-level interaction between individual and regional socioeconomic status on the survival after onset of ischemic stroke. We selected newly diagnosed ischemic stroke patients from 2002 to 2013 using stratified representative sampling data of 1,025,340 subjects. A total of 37,044 patients over the 10 years from 2004 to 2013 had newly diagnosed stroke. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) of 12- and 36-month mortality using the Cox proportional hazard model, with the reference group as stroke patients with high income in advantaged regions. For the middle income level, the patients in advantaged regions showed low HRs for overall mortality (12-month HR 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.44; 36-month HR 1.25; 95% CI, 1.14-1.37) compared to the others in disadvantaged regions (12-month HR 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19-1.56; 36-month HR 1.30; 95% CI, 1.17-1.44). Interestingly, for the low income level, the patients in advantaged regions showed high HRs for overall mortality (12-month HR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.13-1.44; 36-month HR 1.33; 95% CI, 1.22-1.46) compared to the others in disadvantaged regions (12-month HR 1.25; 95% CI, 1.09-1.43; 36-month HR 1.30; 95% CI, 1.18-1.44). Although we need to perform further investigations to determine the exact mechanisms, regional deprivation, as well as medical factors, might be associated with survival after onset of ischemic stroke in low-income patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

External validation and clinical utility of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis for end-stage kidney disease.

PubMed

Forzley, Brian; Er, Lee; Chiu, Helen Hl; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Martinusen, Dan; Carson, Rachel C; Hargrove, Gaylene; Levin, Adeera; Karim, Mohamud

2018-02-01

End-stage kidney disease is associated with poor prognosis. Health care professionals must be prepared to address end-of-life issues and identify those at high risk for dying. A 6-month mortality prediction model for patients on dialysis derived in the United States is used but has not been externally validated. We aimed to assess the external validity and clinical utility in an independent cohort in Canada. We examined the performance of the published 6-month mortality prediction model, using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses. Data were derived from a cohort of 374 prevalent dialysis patients in two regions of British Columbia, Canada, which included serum albumin, age, peripheral vascular disease, dementia, and answers to the "the surprise question" ("Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next year?"). The observed mortality in the validation cohort was 11.5% at 6 months. The prediction model had reasonable discrimination (c-stat = 0.70) but poor calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.53 (95% confidence interval: -0.88, -0.18); calibration slope = 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.83)) in our data. Decision curve analysis showed the model only has added value in guiding clinical decision in a small range of threshold probabilities: 8%-20%. Despite reasonable discrimination, the prediction model has poor calibration in this external study cohort; thus, it may have limited clinical utility in settings outside of where it was derived. Decision curve analysis clarifies limitations in clinical utility not apparent by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. This study highlights the importance of external validation of prediction models prior to routine use in clinical practice.

Circulating FABP4 (Fatty Acid-Binding Protein 4) Is a Novel Prognostic Biomarker in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Tu, Wen-Jun; Zeng, Xian-Wei; Deng, Aijun; Zhao, Sheng-Jie; Luo, Ding-Zhen; Ma, Guo-Zhao; Wang, Hong; Liu, Qiang

2017-06-01

FABP4 (fatty acid-binding protein 4) is an intracellular lipid chaperone involved in coordination of lipid transportation and atherogenesis. This study aimed at observing the effect of FABP4 on the 3-month outcomes in Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke. In a prospective multicenter observational study, serum concentrations of FABP4 were on admission measured in plasma of 737 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke. Serum concentrations of FABP4, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and conventional risk factors were evaluated to determine their value to predict functional outcome and mortality within 3 months. During follow-up, an unfavorable functional outcome was found in 260 patients (35.3%), and 94 patients (12.8%) died. In multivariate models comparing the third and fourth quartiles to the first quartile of FABP4, the concentrations of FABP4 were associated with poor functional outcome and mortality. Compared with the reference category (Q1-Q3), the concentrations of FABP4 in Q4 had a relative risk of 4.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.02-8.15; P <0.001) for poor functional outcome and mortality (odds ratio, 6.15; 95% CI, 3.43-12.68) after adjusting for other significant outcome predictors in univariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver-operating characteristic curves to predict poor functional outcome and mortality demonstrated areas under the curve of FABP4 of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.75-0.82) and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79-0.88), which improved the prognostic accuracy of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score with combined areas under the curve of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.89; P <0.01) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.81-0.92), respectively. Data show that FABP4 is a novel independent prognostic marker improving the currently used risk stratification of stroke patients. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Frail-VIG index: a concise frailty evaluation tool for rapid geriatric assessment.

PubMed

Amblàs-Novellas, Jordi; Martori, Joan Carles; Espaulella, Joan; Oller, Ramon; Molist-Brunet, Núria; Inzitari, Marco; Romero-Ortuno, Roman

2018-01-26

Demographic changes have led to an increase in the number of elderly frail persons and, consequently, systematic geriatric assessment is more important than ever. Frailty Indexes (FI) may be particularly useful to discriminate between various degrees of frailty but are not routinely assessed due, at least in part, to the large number of deficits assessed (from 30 to 70). Therefore, we have developed a new, more concise FI for rapid geriatric assessment (RGA)-the Frail-VIG index ("VIG" is the Spanish/Catalan abbreviation for Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment), which contains 22 simple questions that assess 25 different deficits. Here we describe this FI and report its ability to predict mortality at 24 months. Prospective, observational, longitudinal study of geriatric patients followed for 24 months or until death. The study participants were patients (n = 590) admitted to the Acute Geriatric Unit at the at the University Hospital of Vic (Barcelona) during the year 2014. Participants were classified into one of seven groups based on their Frail-VIG score (0-0.15; 0.16-0.25; 0.26-0.35; 0.36-0.45; 0.46-0.55; 0.56-0.65; and 0.66-1). Survival curves for these groups were compared using the log-rank test. ROC curves were used to assess the index's capacity to predict mortality at 24 months. Mean (standard deviation) patient age was 86.4 (5.6) years. The 24-month mortality rate was 57.3% for the whole sample. Significant between-group (deceased vs. living) differences (p < 0.05) were observed for most index variables. Survival curves for the seven Frail-VIG groups differed significantly (X 2  = 433.4, p < 0.001), with an area under the ROC curve (confidence interval) of 0.90 (0.88-0.92) at 12 months and 0.85 (0.82-0.88) at 24 months. Administration time for the Frail-VIG index ranged from 5 to 10 min. The Frail-VIG index, which requires less time to administer than previously validated FIs, presents a good discriminative capacity for the degree of frailty and a high predictive capacity for mortality in the present cohort. Although more research is needed to confirm the validity of this instrument in other populations and settings, the Frail-VIG may provide clinicians with a RGA method and also a reliable tool to assess frailty in routine practice.

Correlation of the association of serum lactate, random blood sugar, and revised trauma score as predictors of outcome in hemodynamically unstable abdominal emergencies.

PubMed

Allwell-Brown, E; Afuwape, O O; Ayandipo, O; Alonge, T

2016-01-01

Elevated levels of serum lactate and glucose during resuscitation have been demonstrated to be predictors of morbidity and mortality in hemodynamically unstable patients with surgical abdominal conditions. However, the rate of return to normal levels of both lactate and blood glucose may be better predictors of mortality and morbidity. The aims of this study are: (I) To determine the pattern of serum lactate and glucose changes in patients with surgical abdominal conditions requiring resuscitation within 48 hours of presentation. (II) To correlate the predictive capability of these two independent parameters. (III) To correlate the predictive values of these parameters with the revised trauma score (RTS). This is a prospective observational study conducted over three months. The patients admitted by the general surgery division requiring resuscitation from shock was included in this study. Resuscitation was carried out with crystalloids. The estimation of serum lactate and glucose levels was done at presentation (0 hours), 12, 24 and 48 hours after admission. The revised trauma score (RTS) was calculated for each patient at presentation and at 12, 24 and 48 hours subsequently. The patients were followed up four weeks or when death occurred within four weeks of presentation. Forty four patients were recruited in the study. There were seven mortalities. The mean serum levels of Plasma glucose and lactate of all the patients were elevated at presentation in the emergency department. Survival was better with a return to normal serum lactate within 12 hours. On the other hand the random plasma glucose (RPG) levels may not be useful in prognosticating patients. However a combination of serum lactate, RTS (at 24 and 48 hours) and RPG at 48 hours may improve predictive parameters in trauma related cases.

Mobility stress test approach to predicting frailty, disability, and mortality in high-functioning older adults.

PubMed

Verghese, Joe; Holtzer, Roee; Lipton, Richard B; Wang, Cuiling

2012-10-01

To examine the validity of the Walking While Talking Test (WWT), a mobility stress test, to predict frailty, disability, and death in high-functioning older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community sample. Six hundred thirty-one community-residing adults aged 70 and older participating in the Einstein Aging Study (mean follow-up 32 months). High-functioning status at baseline was defined as absence of disability and dementia and normal walking speeds. Hazard ratios (HRs) for frailty, disability, and all-cause mortality. Frailty was defined as presence of three out of the following five attributes: weight loss, weakness, exhaustion, low physical activity, and slow gait. The predictive validity of the WWT was also compared with that of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) for study outcomes. Two hundred eighteen participants developed frailty, 88 developed disability, and 49 died. Each 10-cm/s decrease in WWT speed was associated with greater risk of frailty (HR = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.18), disability (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.03-1.23), and mortality (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.01-1.27). Most associations remained robust even after accounting for potential confounders and gait speed. Comparisons of HRs and model fit suggest that the WWT may better predict frailty whereas SPPB may better predict disability. Mobility stress tests such as the WWT are robust predictors of risk of frailty, disability, and mortality in high-functioning older adults. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Mortality in Patients with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: A Collaborative Analysis of Prospective Studies

PubMed Central

Boulle, Andrew; Schomaker, Michael; May, Margaret T.; Hogg, Robert S.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Monge, Susana; Keiser, Olivia; Lampe, Fiona C.; Giddy, Janet; Ndirangu, James; Garone, Daniela; Fox, Matthew; Ingle, Suzanne M.; Reiss, Peter; Dabis, Francois; Costagliola, Dominique; Castagna, Antonella; Ehren, Kathrin; Campbell, Colin; Gill, M. John; Saag, Michael; Justice, Amy C.; Guest, Jodie; Crane, Heidi M.; Egger, Matthias; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.

2014-01-01

Background High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. Methods and Findings Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0–3, 3–6, 6–12, 12–24, and 24–48 months on ART for the period 2001–2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37–0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27–2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. Conclusions After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:25203931

Stability of depressive symptoms over 3 months post-partum.

PubMed

Abdollahi, Fatemeh; Zarghami, Mehran; Sazlina, Shariff-Ghazali; Lye, Munn-Sann

2017-02-01

Prolonged depression during the post-partum period is associated with maternal and infant mortality and morbidity. Less attention has been given to factors that predict the persistence of depression beyond the first 3 months post-partum. From a longitudinal cohort of 2279 women who attended Mazandaran's primary health centres in 2009, 478 women with an Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) score of 12 or greater in the third trimester of pregnancy were recruited. Persistently depressed women (depressed at all three occasions: during pregnancy, and at 2 and 12 weeks post-partum) were compared with those without depression to determine demographic, cultural, obstetric and biopsychosocial predictors for persistence of depression. Data were analysed using chi-square test, t-test and logistic regression models. The stability of depression was found in 193 (46.2 %) of 418 depressed cases who were followed up over the study period. Of those mothers who scored more than the threshold of 12 during the third trimester of pregnancy, 277 (66.3%) and 221 (52.9%) had high EPDS at 2 and 12 weeks post-partum. Psychological distress (based upon the General Health Questionnaire), low maternal parental self-efficacy (based upon the Parental Expectation Survey) and perceived social isolation (based upon the Network Orientation Scale) were independent predictors of persistent depression. Fewer depressed mothers in this study were found to recover during the first 3 months after giving birth. Psychosocial factors predicted sustained depression from pregnancy to 3 months post-partum. The findings highlight the significance of support in enhancing maternal mental health. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Association between probable postnatal depression and increased infant mortality and morbidity: findings from the DON population-based cohort study in rural Ghana.

PubMed

Weobong, Benedict; ten Asbroek, Augustinus H A; Soremekun, Seyi; Gram, Lu; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Danso, Samuel; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Prince, Martin; Kirkwood, Betty R

2015-08-27

To assess the impact of probable depression in the immediate postnatal period on subsequent infant mortality and morbidity. Cohort study nested within 4 weekly surveillance of all women of reproductive age to identify pregnancies and collect data on births and deaths. Rural/periurban communities within the Kintampo Health Research Centre study area of the Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana. 16,560 mothers who had a live singleton birth reported between 24 March 2008 and 11 July 2009, who were screened for probable postnatal depression (pPND) between 4 and 12 weeks post partum (some of whom had also had depression assessed at pregnancy), and whose infants survived to this point. All-cause early infant mortality expressed per 1000 infant-months of follow-up from the time of postnatal assessment to 6 months of age. The secondary outcomes were (1) all-cause infant mortality from the time of postnatal assessment to 12 months of age and (2) reported infant morbidity from the time of the postnatal assessment to 12 months of age. 130 infant deaths were recorded and singletons were followed for 67,457.4 infant-months from the time of their mothers' postnatal depression assessment. pPND was associated with an almost threefold increased risk of mortality up to 6 months (adjusted rate ratio (RR), 2.86 (1.58 to 5.19); p=0.001). The RR up to 12 months was 1.88 (1.09 to 3.24; p=0.023). pPND was also associated with increased risk of infant morbidity. There is new evidence for the association between maternal pPND and infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Implementation of the WHO's Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) to scale up packages of care integrated with maternal health is encouraged as an important adjunct to child survival efforts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Prognostic utility of plasma S100A12 levels to establish a novel scoring system for predicting mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients: a two-year prospective observational study in Japan

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background S100A12 protein is an endogenous receptor ligand for advanced glycation end products. In this study, the plasma S100A12 level was assessed as an independent predictor of mortality, and its utility in clinical settings was examined. Methods In a previous cross-sectional study, plasma S100A12 levels were measured in 550 maintenance hemodialysis patients to determine the association between S100A12 and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this prospective study, the risk of mortality within a two-year period was determined. An integer scoring system was developed to predict mortality on the basis of the plasma S100A12 levels. Results Higher plasma S100A12 levels (≥18.79 ng/mL) were more closely associated with higher all-cause mortality than lower plasma S100A12 levels (<18.79 ng/mL; P = 0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed higher plasma S100A12 levels [hazard ratio (HR), 2.267; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.195–4.302; P = 0.012], age ≥65 years (HR, 1.961; 95%CI, 1.017–3.781; P = 0.044), serum albumin levels <3.5 g/dL (HR, 2.198; 95%CI, 1.218–3.968; P = 0.012), and history of CVD (HR, 2.068; 95%CI, 1.146–3.732; P = 0.016) to be independent predictors of two-year all-cause mortality. The integer score was derived by assigning points to these factors and determining total scores. The scoring system revealed trends across increasing scores for predicting the all-cause mortality [c-statistic = 0.730 (0.656–0.804)]. The resulting model demonstrated good discriminative power for distinguishing the validation population of 303 hemodialysis patients [c-statistic = 0.721 (0.627–0.815)]. Conclusion The results indicate that plasma S100A12 level is an independent predictor for two-year all-cause mortality. A simple integer scoring system was therefore established for predicting mortality on the basis of plasma S100A12 levels. PMID:23324110

Pentraxin-3 Predicts Short- and Mid-term Mortality in Patients with Sepsis and Septic Shock During Intensive Care Treatment.

PubMed

Hamed, Sonja; Behnes, Michael; Pauly, Dominic; Lepiorz, Dominic; Barre, Max; Becher, Tobias; Lang, Siegfried; Akin, Ibrahim; Borggrefe, Martin; Bertsch, Thomas; Hoffmann, Ursula

2018-06-01

The prognostic value of the acute phase protein Pentraxin 3 (PTX-3) is not well evaluated in patients with septic shock, which reveal an unacceptably high short- and long-term mortality. New Sepsis-3 definitions are not yet implemented in most biomarker studies. Therefore, this study assesses the prognostic value of PTX-3 for short- and mid-term mortality in patients with sepsis or septic shock, as defined by the latest definitions, treated at a medical intensive care unit (ICU). The study includes 213 ICU patients with clinical criteria of sepsis and septic shock. Plasma levels of PTX-3, procalcitonin (PCT) and interleukin-6 were measured on day 1, 3, and 8. All-cause mortality was followed up to 30 days and at 6 months. On all three days, PTX-3 levels were able to discriminate non-survivors from survivors at 30 days and 6 months (AUC range: 0.59 - 0.70; 95% CI: 0.52 - 0.79; p ≤ 0.02). Highest PTX-3 levels within the fourth quartiles during the first week of ICU treatment were associated with an increased mortality rate at 30 days (OR = 7; 95% CI: 2.0 - 23.5; p ≤ 0.002) and at 6 months (OR = 5; 95% CI: 2.1 - 11.4; p ≤ 0.006). Additionally, the prognostic value of PTX-3 was proven for all patients as well as in subcohorts of patients with sepsis and septic shock, according to Sepsis-3 criteria, both in univariate and multivariate analyses for 30-day and 6-months all-cause mortality, especially predicting all-cause mortality in septic shock (HRs range: 1.0 - 2.9; 95% CI: 0.3 - 5.1; p ≤ 0.03). PTX-3 offers prognostic value for the prediction of short- and mid-term all-cause mortality in patients suffering from sepsis and septic shock according to the latest Sepsis-3 criteria.

Performance of AHEAD Score in an Asian Cohort of Acute Heart Failure With Either Preserved or Reduced Left Ventricular Systolic Function.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Jen; Sung, Shih-Hsien; Cheng, Hao-Min; Huang, Wei-Ming; Wu, Chung-Li; Huang, Chi-Jung; Hsu, Pai-Feng; Yeh, Jong-Shiuan; Guo, Chao-Yu; Yu, Wen-Chung; Chen, Chen-Huan

2017-05-04

AHEAD (A: atrial fibrillation; H: hemoglobin; E: elderly; A: abnormal renal parameters; D: diabetes mellitus) score has been related to clinical outcomes of acute heart failure. However, the prognostic value of the AHEAD score in acute heart failure patients with either reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF and HFpEF) remain to be elucidated. The study population consisted of 2143 patients (age 77±12 years, 68% men, 38% HFrEF) hospitalized primarily for acute heart failure with a median follow-up of 23.75 months. The performance of the AHEAD score (atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin <13 mg/dL for men and 12 mg/dL for women, age >70 years, creatinine >130 μmol/L, and diabetes mellitus) was evaluated by Cox's regression analysis for predicting cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The mean AHEAD scores were 2.7±1.2 in the total study population, 2.6±1.3 in the HFrEF group, and 2.7±1.1 in the HFpEF group. After accounting for sex, sodium, uric acid, and medications, the AHEAD score remained significantly associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio and 95% CI: 1.49, 1.38-1.60 and 1.48, 1.33-1.64), respectively. The associations of AHEAD score with mortality remained significant in the subgroups of HFrEF (1.63, 1.47-1.82) and HFpEF (1.34, 1.22-1.48). Moreover, when we calculated a new AHEAD-U score by considering uric acid (>8.6 mg/dL) in addition to the AHEAD score, the net reclassification was improved by 19.7% and 20.1% for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. The AHEAD score was useful in predicting long-term mortality in the Asian acute heart failure cohort with either HFrEF or HFpEF. The new AHEAD-U score may further improve risk stratification. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Depression, coronary artery disease, and physical activity: how much exercise is enough?

PubMed

Peterson, Janey C; Charlson, Mary E; Wells, Martin T; Altemus, Margaret

2014-11-01

The mechanisms by which depressive symptoms negatively affect clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) remain poorly understood. Previous interventions that have attempted to treat depressive symptoms in patients with CAD to improve their clinical outcomes have been disappointing. Our objectives were, among a cohort of CAD patients, to evaluate the impact of depressive symptoms over time, controlling for comorbidity, in determining both successful long-term lifestyle change (ie, increased physical activity), and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality outcomes. In addition, we examined the impact of physical activity changes over time on 2 known mediators of cardiovascular morbidity: parasympathetic tone and inflammation. Clinical data were previously collected (2004-2006) from 242 elective/urgent coronary angioplasty patients who participated in a prospective randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of a behavioral intervention versus an educational control to motivate physical activity over 12 months. Exclusion criteria included: (1) inability to walk; (2) enrollment in other risk-reduction trials; (3) non-English speaking; and (4) lack of cardiologist's permission to increase physical activity. Participants were assessed every 2 months for interval clinical events and physical activity. In addition, biomarkers were collected at baseline and at 12 months in a subset of 54 participants; these biomarkers included low-frequency heart rate variability (lfHRV), high-frequency heart rate variability (hfHRV), serum C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and salivary cortisol. The mean age of participants was 63 years and 30% were female. Overall, 37% had high depressive symptoms at baseline. Patients with high depressive symptoms who achieved an increase in physical activity of ≥336 kilocalories(kcal)/week by 12 months had significantly lower rates of cardiovascular morbidity/mortality (5.1% vs. 21.3%; odds ratio [OR], 0.20, [95% CI, 0.04-0.98]; P = 0.03). In a multivariate model examining cardiovascular morbidity/mortality in patients with high depressive symptoms, an increase in physical activity of ≥336 kcal/week reduced the risk of new cardiovascular morbidity/mortality (OR, 0.11 [95% CI, 0.02-0.81]; P < 0.03), and comorbidity increased the risk (OR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.18-2.13]; P = 0.002). In a generalized structural equation model, increasing physical activity by ≥336 kcal/week decreased the risk of complications, and comorbidity increased the risk. Furthermore, increasing physical activity (≥336 kcal/week) predicted an increase in hfHRV, a marker of parasympathetic tone, and the increase in hfHRV predicted a reduction in the proinflammatory mediators interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein. This study found a threshold in physical activity in CAD patients with depressive symptoms that is associated with a decrease in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Exercise maintenance at this level may improve clinical outcomes via enhanced parasympathetic tone and decreased inflammation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00248846. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality following a massive waterborne outbreak in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Hoxie, N J; Davis, J P; Vergeront, J M; Nashold, R D; Blair, K A

1997-12-01

This study estimated the magnitude of cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality in the Milwaukee vicinity for 2 years following a massive waterborne outbreak. Death certificates were reviewed. During approximately 2 years before the outbreak, cryptosporidiosis was listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death on the death certificates of four Milwaukee-vicinity residents. In the approximately 2 years after the outbreak, this number was 54, of whom 85% had acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) listed as the underlying cause of death. In the first 6 months after the outbreak, the number of death certificates indicating AIDS, but not cryptosporidiosis, as a cause of death was 19 (95% confidence interval = 12.26) higher than preoutbreak trends would have predicted. Waterborne outbreaks of cryptosporidium infection can result in significant mortality, particularly among immunocompromised populations. Any discussion of policies to ensure safe drinking water must consider the potential fatal consequences of waterborne cryptosporidiosis among immunocompromised populations.

Association between changes in quality of life and mortality in hemodialysis patients: results from the DOPPS

PubMed Central

Karaboyas, Angelo; Morgenstern, Hal; Sen, Ananda; Rayner, Hugh C.; Vanholder, Raymond C.; Combe, Christian; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Finkelstein, Fredric O.; Lopes, Antonio A.; Robinson, Bruce M.; Pisoni, Ronald L.; Tentori, Francesca

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Cross-sectional health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) measures are associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The impact of changes in HR-QOL on outcomes remains unclear. We describe the association of prior changes in HR-QOL with subsequent mortality among HD patients. Methods: A total of 13 784 patients in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study had more than one measurement of HR-QOL. The impact of changes between two measurements of the physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary scores of the SF-12 on mortality was estimated with Cox regression. Results: Mean age was 62 years (standard deviation: 14 years); 59% were male and 32% diabetic. Median time between HR-QOL measurements was 12 months [interquartile range (IQR): 11, 14]. Median initial PCS and MCS scores were 37.5 (IQR: 29.4, 46.2) and 46.4 (IQR: 37.2, 54.9); median changes in PCS and MCS scores were −0.2 (IQR: −5.5, 4.7) and −0.1 (IQR: −6.8, 5.9), respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for a 5-point decline in HR-QOL score was 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06–1.12] for PCS and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03–1.08) for MCS. Adjusting for the second QOL score, the change was not associated with mortality: HR = 1.01 (95% CI: 0.98–1.05) for delta PCS and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.98–1.03) for delta MCS. Categorizing the first and second scores as predictors, only the second PCS or MCS score was associated with mortality. Conclusions: In our study, only the most recent HR-QOL score was associated with mortality. Hence, the predictive power of a measurement of HR-QOL is not affected by changes in HR-QOL prior to that measurement; more frequent HR-QOL measurements are needed to improve the prediction of outcomes in HD. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal frequency and appropriate instrument to be used for serial measurements. PMID:27270292

Association between changes in quality of life and mortality in hemodialysis patients: results from the DOPPS.

PubMed

Perl, Jeffrey; Karaboyas, Angelo; Morgenstern, Hal; Sen, Ananda; Rayner, Hugh C; Vanholder, Raymond C; Combe, Christian; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Finkelstein, Fredric O; Lopes, Antonio A; Robinson, Bruce M; Pisoni, Ronald L; Tentori, Francesca

2017-03-01

Cross-sectional health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) measures are associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The impact of changes in HR-QOL on outcomes remains unclear. We describe the association of prior changes in HR-QOL with subsequent mortality among HD patients. A total of 13 784 patients in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study had more than one measurement of HR-QOL. The impact of changes between two measurements of the physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary scores of the SF-12 on mortality was estimated with Cox regression. Mean age was 62 years (standard deviation: 14 years); 59% were male and 32% diabetic. Median time between HR-QOL measurements was 12 months [interquartile range (IQR): 11, 14]. Median initial PCS and MCS scores were 37.5 (IQR: 29.4, 46.2) and 46.4 (IQR: 37.2, 54.9); median changes in PCS and MCS scores were -0.2 (IQR: -5.5, 4.7) and -0.1 (IQR: -6.8, 5.9), respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for a 5-point decline in HR-QOL score was 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.12] for PCS and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03-1.08) for MCS. Adjusting for the second QOL score, the change was not associated with mortality: HR = 1.01 (95% CI: 0.98-1.05) for delta PCS and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.98-1.03) for delta MCS. Categorizing the first and second scores as predictors, only the second PCS or MCS score was associated with mortality. In our study, only the most recent HR-QOL score was associated with mortality. Hence, the predictive power of a measurement of HR-QOL is not affected by changes in HR-QOL prior to that measurement; more frequent HR-QOL measurements are needed to improve the prediction of outcomes in HD. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal frequency and appropriate instrument to be used for serial measurements. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Mokhtare, Marjan; Bozorgi, Vida; Agah, Shahram; Nikkhah, Mehdi; Faghihi, Amirhossein; Boghratian, Amirhossein; Shalbaf, Neda; Khanlari, Abbas; Seifmanesh, Hamidreza

2016-01-01

Various risk scoring systems have been recently developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The two commonly used scoring systems include full Rockall score (RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). Bleeding scores were assessed in terms of prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB. Two hundred patients (age >18 years) with obvious symptoms of UGIB in the emergency department of Rasoul Akram Hospital were enrolled. Full RS and GBS were calculated. We followed the patients for records of rebleeding and 1-month mortality. A receiver operating characteristic curve by using areas under the curve (AUCs) was used to statistically identify the best cutoff point. Eighteen patients were excluded from the study due to failure to follow-up. Rebleeding and mortality rate were 9.34% (n=17) and 11.53% (n=21), respectively. Regarding 1-month mortality, full RS was better than GBS (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021). GBS was more accurate in terms of detecting transfusion need (AUC, 0.757 versus 0.528; P =0.001), rebleeding rate (AUC, 0.722 versus 0.520; P =0.002), intensive care unit admission rate (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021), and endoscopic intervention rate (AUC, 0.771 versus 0.650; P <0.001). We found the full RS system is better for 1-month mortality prediction while GBS system is better for prediction of other outcomes.

External Validation and Recalibration of Risk Prediction Models for Acute Traumatic Brain Injury among Critically Ill Adult Patients in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Griggs, Kathryn A.; Prabhu, Gita; Gomes, Manuel; Lecky, Fiona E.; Hutchinson, Peter J. A.; Menon, David K.; Rowan, Kathryn M.

2015-01-01

Abstract This study validates risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) in critical care units in the United Kingdom and recalibrates the models to this population. The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study was a prospective, observational cohort study in 67 adult critical care units. Adult patients admitted to critical care following acute TBI with a last pre-sedation Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15 were recruited. The primary outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome (death or severe disability, assessed using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale) at six months following TBI. Of 3626 critical care unit admissions, 2975 were analyzed. Following imputation of missing outcomes, mortality at six months was 25.7% and unfavorable outcome 57.4%. Ten risk prediction models were validated from Hukkelhoven and colleagues, the Medical Research Council (MRC) Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) Trial Collaborators, and the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) group. The model with the best discrimination was the IMPACT “Lab” model (C index, 0.779 for mortality and 0.713 for unfavorable outcome). This model was well calibrated for mortality at six months but substantially under-predicted the risk of unfavorable outcome. Recalibration of the models resulted in small improvements in discrimination and excellent calibration for all models. The risk prediction models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research and audit but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The published models for unfavorable outcome at six months had poor calibration in the UK critical care setting and the models recalibrated to this setting should be used in future research. PMID:25898072

External Validation and Recalibration of Risk Prediction Models for Acute Traumatic Brain Injury among Critically Ill Adult Patients in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Harrison, David A; Griggs, Kathryn A; Prabhu, Gita; Gomes, Manuel; Lecky, Fiona E; Hutchinson, Peter J A; Menon, David K; Rowan, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

This study validates risk prediction models for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) in critical care units in the United Kingdom and recalibrates the models to this population. The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study was a prospective, observational cohort study in 67 adult critical care units. Adult patients admitted to critical care following acute TBI with a last pre-sedation Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15 were recruited. The primary outcomes were mortality and unfavorable outcome (death or severe disability, assessed using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale) at six months following TBI. Of 3626 critical care unit admissions, 2975 were analyzed. Following imputation of missing outcomes, mortality at six months was 25.7% and unfavorable outcome 57.4%. Ten risk prediction models were validated from Hukkelhoven and colleagues, the Medical Research Council (MRC) Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) Trial Collaborators, and the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) group. The model with the best discrimination was the IMPACT "Lab" model (C index, 0.779 for mortality and 0.713 for unfavorable outcome). This model was well calibrated for mortality at six months but substantially under-predicted the risk of unfavorable outcome. Recalibration of the models resulted in small improvements in discrimination and excellent calibration for all models. The risk prediction models demonstrated sufficient statistical performance to support their use in research and audit but fell below the level required to guide individual patient decision-making. The published models for unfavorable outcome at six months had poor calibration in the UK critical care setting and the models recalibrated to this setting should be used in future research.

Epilepsy-associated long-term mortality after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Huttunen, Jukka; Lindgren, Antti; Kurki, Mitja I; Huttunen, Terhi; Frösen, Juhana; Koivisto, Timo; von Und Zu Fraunberg, Mikael; Immonen, Arto; Jääskeläinen, Juha E; Kälviäinen, Reetta

2017-07-18

To elucidate the epilepsy-associated causes of death and subsequent excess long-term mortality among 12-month survivors of subarachnoid hemorrhage from saccular intracranial aneurysm (SIA-SAH). The Kuopio SIA Database (kuopioneurosurgery.fi) includes all SIA-SAH patients admitted to the Kuopio University Hospital from its defined catchment population in Eastern Finland. The study cohort consists of 779 patients, admitted from 1995 to 2007, who were alive at 12 months after SIA-SAH. Their use of reimbursable antiepileptic drugs and the causes of death (ICD-10) were fused from the Finnish national registries from 1994 to 2014. The 779 12-month survivors were followed up until death (n = 197) or December 31, 2014, a median of 12.0 years after SIA-SAH. Epilepsy had been diagnosed in 121 (15%) patients after SIA-SAH, and 34/121 (28%) had died at the end of follow-up, with epilepsy as the immediate cause of death in 7/34 (21%). In the 779 patients alive at 12 months after SIA-SAH, epilepsy was an independent risk factor for mortality (hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.0). Comorbid epilepsy in 12-month survivors of SIA-SAH is associated with increased risk of death in long-term follow-up. Survivors of SIA-SAH require long-term dedicated follow-up, including identification and effective treatment of comorbid epilepsy to prevent avoidable deaths. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

Predicted Unfavorable Neurologic Outcome Is Overestimated by the Marshall Computed Tomography Score, Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH), and International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) Models in Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Managed with Early Decompressive Craniectomy.

PubMed

Charry, Jose D; Tejada, Jorman H; Pinzon, Miguel A; Tejada, Wilson A; Ochoa, Juan D; Falla, Manuel; Tovar, Jesus H; Cuellar-Bahamón, Ana M; Solano, Juan P

2017-05-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is of public health interest and produces significant mortality and disability in Colombia. Calculators and prognostic models have been developed to establish neurologic outcomes. We tested prognostic models (the Marshall computed tomography [CT] score, International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT), and Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury) for 14-day mortality, 6-month mortality, and 6-month outcome in patients with TBI at a university hospital in Colombia. A 127-patient cohort with TBI was treated in a regional trauma center in Colombia over 2 years and bivariate and multivariate analyses were used. Discriminatory power of the models, their accuracy, and precision was assessed by both logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Shapiro-Wilk, χ 2 , and Wilcoxon test were used to compare real outcomes in the cohort against predicted outcomes. The group's median age was 33 years, and 84.25% were male. The injury severity score median was 25, and median Glasgow Coma Scale motor score was 3. Six-month mortality was 29.13%. Six-month unfavorable outcome was 37%. Mortality prediction by Marshall CT score was 52.8%, P = 0.104 (AUC 0.585; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0 0.489-0.681), the mortality prediction by CRASH prognosis calculator was 59.9%, P < 0.001 (AUC 0.706; 95% CI 0.590-0.821), and the unfavorable outcome prediction by IMPACT was 77%, P < 0.048 (AUC 0.670; 95% CI 0.575-0.763). In a university hospital in Colombia, the Marshall CT score, IMPACT, and Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury models overestimated the adverse neurologic outcome in patients with severe head trauma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dizziness and death: An imbalance in mortality.

PubMed

Corrales, C Eduardo; Bhattacharyya, Neil

2016-09-01

To determine if dizziness is an independent risk factor for mortality among adults in the United States. Cross-sectional analysis using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Adult respondents in the 2008 NHIS were evaluated. Demographic information (gender, race, ethnicity, education level), prevalence of dizziness, mortality rates, and leading causes of death (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease) were collected and analyzed. The association between dizziness and subsequent mortality was determined adjusting for demographic and other disease factors. Among 213.6 ± 3.5 million adult Americans, 23.8 ± 0.7 million reported dizziness in the past 12 months (11.1% ± 0.3%; mean age, 45.9 ± 0.2 years; 51.7% ± 0.5% female). The mortality rate among the group without dizziness in the preceding 12 months was 2.6% ± 0.1%, compared to the dizzy group at 9.0% ± 0.7%. After adjusting for gender and age, there was a statistically significant association between dizziness and mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.8-2.8). After adjusting for all covariates including age, ethnicity, race, gender, diabetes, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, and grade level, dizziness remained an independent predictor of increased mortality (adjusted OR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.36-2.18). Approximately 11% of adult Americans reported dizziness or balance problems in the preceding 12 months. Adults with dizziness have a greater mortality rate than nondizzy adults. Even after adjusting for covariates, there was a significant association between dizziness and mortality. Screening for dizziness as a risk factor for mortality may be warranted. 2b Laryngoscope, 126:2134-2136, 2016. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

β-Blocker Therapy Prior to Admission for Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients Without Heart Failure or Left Ventricular Dysfunction Improves In-Hospital and 12-Month Outcome: Results From the GULF-RACE 2 (Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events-2).

PubMed

Abi Khalil, Charbel; AlHabib, Khalid F; Singh, Rajvir; Asaad, Nidal; Alfaleh, Hussam; Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi A; Sulaiman, Kadhim; Alshamiri, Mostafa; Alshaer, Fayez; AlMahmeed, Wael; Al Suwaidi, Jassim

2017-12-20

The prognostic impact of β-blockers (BB) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients without heart failure (HF) or left ventricular dysfunction is controversial, especially in the postreperfusion era. We sought to determine whether a BB therapy before admission for ACS has a favorable in-hospital outcome in patients without HF, and whether they also reduce 12-month mortality if still prescribed on discharge. The GULF-RACE 2 (Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events-2) is a prospective multicenter study of ACS in 6 Middle Eastern countries. We studied in-hospital cardiovascular events in patients hospitalized for ACS without HF in relation to BB on admission, and 1-year mortality in relation to BB on discharge. Among the 7903 participants, 7407 did not have HF, of whom 5937 (80.15%) patients were on BB. Patients on BB tended to be older and have more comorbidities. However, they had a lower risk of in-hospital mortality, mitral regurgitation, HF, cardiogenic shock, and ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation. Furthermore, 4208 patients were discharged alive and had an ejection fraction ≥40%. Among those, 84.1% had a BB prescription. At 12 months, they also had a reduced risk of mortality as compared with the non-BB group. Even after correcting for confounding factors in 2 different models, in-hospital and 12-month mortality risk was still lower in the BB group. In this cohort of ACS, BB therapy before admission for ACS is associated with decreased in-hospital mortality and major cardiovascular events, and 1-year mortality in patients without HF or left ventricular dysfunction if still prescribed on discharge. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Increased Prognostic Value of Query Amyloid Late Enhancement Score in Light-Chain Cardiac Amyloidosis.

PubMed

Wan, Ke; Sun, Jiayu; Han, Yuchi; Liu, Hong; Yang, Dan; Li, Weihao; Wang, Jie; Cheng, Wei; Zhang, Qing; Zeng, Zhi; Chen, Yucheng

2018-02-23

Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) pattern is a powerful imaging biomarker for prognosis of cardiac amyloidosis. It is unknown if the query amyloid late enhancement (QALE) score in light-chain (AL) amyloidosis could provide increased prognostic value compared with LGE pattern.Methods and Results:Seventy-eight consecutive patients with AL amyloidosis underwent contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging. Patients with cardiac involvement were grouped by LGE pattern and analyzed using QALE score. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to identify the optimal cut-off for QALE score in predicting all-cause mortality. Survival of these patients was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression. During a median follow-up of 34 months, 53 of 78 patients died. The optimal cut-off for QALE score to predict mortality at 12-month follow-up was 9.0. On multivariate Cox analysis, QALE score ≥9 (HR, 5.997; 95% CI: 2.665-13.497; P<0.001) and log N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (HR, 1.525; 95% CI: 1.112-2.092; P=0.009) were the only 2 independent predictors of all-cause mortality. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients with subendocardial LGE can be further risk stratified using QALE score ≥9. The QALE scoring system provides powerful independent prognostic value in AL cardiac amyloidosis. QALE score ≥9 has added value to differentiate prognosis in AL amyloidosis patients with a subendocardial LGE pattern.

Effect of the full moon on mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

PubMed

Nadeem, Rashid; Nadeem, Amin; Madbouly, Essam Mohamed; Molnar, Janos; Morrison, Jeanette Levine

2014-02-01

To determine the lunar effect on mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit. The retrospective study conducted at Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Science, North Chicago, and comprised data of 4387 patients in intensive care unit from December 2002 to November 2004. The subjects were divided into two groups: patients who died on full moon days (the 14th, 15th, and 16th days of the lunar month); and patients who died on the other days of the month. The mortality rates were calculated for patients in both groups. Parameters including patients' age, gender, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation scores, predicted mortality rates, type of intensive care unit, and actual mortality were compared, and non-parametric tests were performed to determine whether there were any differences between the groups. Of the 4387 patients who were followed for 23 months, 297 patients died, including 31 on full moon days and 266 patients on the other days of the month. Both groups were similar in terms of mean age (73.6 +/- 14.59 vs. 71.07 +/- 16.13 years; p = 0.599), acute physiology and chronic health evalutation scores (82.06 +/- 24.19 vs. 76.52 +/- 27.42; p = 0.258), and predicted mortality (0.405 +/- 0.249 vs. 0.370 +/- 0.268; p = 0.305). There was no difference in the frequency of death between the full moon days and the other days (10.33 +/- 0.58 vs. 9.8 +/- 3.46; p = 0.845). The full moon does not affect the mortality of the patients in intensive care unit.

Independence and mobility after infrainguinal lower limb bypass surgery for critical limb ischemia.

PubMed

Ambler, Graeme K; Dapaah, Andrew; Al Zuhir, Naail; Hayes, Paul D; Gohel, Manjit S; Boyle, Jonathan R; Varty, Kevin; Coughlin, Patrick A

2014-04-01

Critical limb ischemia (CLI) is a common condition associated with high levels of morbidity and mortality. Most work to date has focused on surgeon-oriented outcomes such as patency, but there is increasing interest in patient-oriented outcomes such as mobility and independence. This study was conducted to determine the effect of infrainguinal lower limb bypass surgery (LLBS) on postoperative mobility in a United Kingdom tertiary vascular surgery unit and to investigate causes and consequences of poor postoperative mobility. We collected data on all patients undergoing LLBS for CLI at our institution during a 3-year period and analyzed potential factors that correlated with poor postoperative mobility. During the study period, 93 index LLBS procedures were performed for patients with CLI. Median length of stay was 11 days (interquartile range, 11 days). The 12-month rates of graft patency, major amputation, and mortality were 75%, 9%, and 6%, respectively. Rates of dependence increased fourfold during the first postoperative year, from 5% preoperatively to 21% at 12 months. Predictors of poor postoperative mobility were female sex (P = .04) and poor postoperative mobility (P < .001), initially and at the 12-month follow-up. Patients with poor postoperative mobility had significantly prolonged hospital length of stay (15 vs 8 days; P < .001). Patients undergoing LLBS for CLI suffer significantly impaired postoperative mobility, and this is associated with prolonged hospital stay, irrespective of successful revascularization. Further work is needed to better predict patients who will benefit from revascularization and in whom a nonoperative strategy is optimal. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; García-Díez, Markel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2016-01-01

Heat waves have been responsible for more fatalities in Europe over the past decades than any other extreme weather event. However, temperature-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. Reliable sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts of extreme temperatures could allow for better short-to-medium-term resource management within heat-health action plans, to protect vulnerable populations and ensure access to preventive measures well in advance. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which S2S climate forecasts could be incorporated into heat-health action plans, to support timely public health decision-making ahead of imminent heat wave events in Europe. Forecasts of apparent temperature at different lead times (e.g., 1 day, 4 days, 8 days, up to 3 months) were used in a mortality model to produce probabilistic mortality forecasts up to several months ahead of the 2003 heat wave event in Europe. Results were compared to mortality predictions, inferred using observed apparent temperature data in the mortality model. In general, we found a decreasing transition in skill between excellent predictions when using observed temperature, to predictions with no skill when using forecast temperature with lead times greater than one week. However, even at lead-times up to three months, there were some regions in Spain and the United Kingdom where excess mortality was detected with some certainty. This suggests that in some areas of Europe, there is potential for S2S climate forecasts to be incorporated in localised heat–health action plans. In general, these results show that the performance of this climate service framework is not limited by the mortality model itself, but rather by the predictability of the climate variables, at S2S time scales, over Europe. PMID:26861369

Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; García-Díez, Markel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R; Rodó, Xavier

2016-02-06

Heat waves have been responsible for more fatalities in Europe over the past decades than any other extreme weather event. However, temperature-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. Reliable sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts of extreme temperatures could allow for better short-to-medium-term resource management within heat-health action plans, to protect vulnerable populations and ensure access to preventive measures well in advance. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which S2S climate forecasts could be incorporated into heat-health action plans, to support timely public health decision-making ahead of imminent heat wave events in Europe. Forecasts of apparent temperature at different lead times (e.g., 1 day, 4 days, 8 days, up to 3 months) were used in a mortality model to produce probabilistic mortality forecasts up to several months ahead of the 2003 heat wave event in Europe. Results were compared to mortality predictions, inferred using observed apparent temperature data in the mortality model. In general, we found a decreasing transition in skill between excellent predictions when using observed temperature, to predictions with no skill when using forecast temperature with lead times greater than one week. However, even at lead-times up to three months, there were some regions in Spain and the United Kingdom where excess mortality was detected with some certainty. This suggests that in some areas of Europe, there is potential for S2S climate forecasts to be incorporated in localised heat-health action plans. In general, these results show that the performance of this climate service framework is not limited by the mortality model itself, but rather by the predictability of the climate variables, at S2S time scales, over Europe.

The effect of neonatal vitamin A supplementation on morbidity and mortality at 12 months: a randomized trial

PubMed Central

Smith, Emily R; Muhihi, Alfa; Mshamu, Salum; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Noor, Ramadhani Abdallah; Spiegelman, Donna; Shapiro, Roger L; Masanja, Honorati; Fawzi, Wafaie

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Neonatal vitamin A supplementation (NVAS) is an intervention hypothesized to reduce infant morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of neonatal vitamin A supplementation in reducing infant morbidity and mortality and assess potential sources of heterogeneity of the effect of NVAS. Methods: We completed an individually randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in Tanzania. Infants were randomized within 3 days of birth to a single dose of vitamin A (50 000 IU) or placebo. We assessed infants at 1 and 3 days after supplementation, as well as 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after supplementation. We included all live births in the analysis and used relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to assess the risks of mortality and hospitalization by 12 months. We used general estimating equations to assess the incidence of morbidities during infancy. Results: A total of 31 999 infants were enrolled in the study between August 2010 and March 2013. At 12 months, vitamin A did not reduce all-cause infant mortality (RR 1.04; 95% CI 0.92-1.16), nor affect hospitalization (RR 1.09; 95% CI 0.97-1.22) or all-cause morbidity (RR 1.00; 95% CI 0.96-1.05). Postpartum maternal vitamin A supplementation modified the effect of neonatal vitamin A supplementation on mortality at 12 months (P-value, test for interaction = 0.04). Among infants born to women who received a mega-dose of vitamin A after delivery, NVAS appeared to increase the risk of death (RR 1.12; 95% CI 0.98-1.29), whereas the risk of death among infants born to women who did not receive a mega-dose was reduced (RR 0.86; 95% CI 0.70-1.06). We noted no modification of the effect of NVAS by infant gender, birthweight or maternal HIV status. Conclusion: NVAS did not affect the risk of death or incidence of common childhood morbidities. However, this study sheds light on potential sources of heterogeneity of the effect of neonatal vitamin A supplementation which should be further examined in a pooled analysis of all NVAS trials. PMID:27789674

Reasons for drinking as predictors of alcohol involvement one year later among HIV-infected individuals with and without hepatitis C.

PubMed

Elliott, Jennifer C; Stohl, Malka; Aharonovich, Efrat; O'Leary, Ann; Hasin, Deborah S

2016-12-01

Heavy drinking can be harmful for individuals with HIV, particularly those coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). HIV patients' reasons for drinking predict short-term alcohol involvement, but whether they predict longer-term involvement is unknown. Also, it remains unknown whether these motives are differentially predictive for HIV monoinfected and HIV/HCV coinfected patients. HIV-infected heavy drinkers (n = 254) participated in a randomized trial of brief alcohol interventions, 236 (92.9%) of whom reported on baseline motives and alcohol involvement 12 months later (77.1% male, 94.9% minority, 30.6% with HCV). Greater endorsement of baseline drinking to cope with negative affect predicted greater alcohol dependence symptoms at 12 months (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 1.80, p < 0.05), while greater endorsement of baseline drinking due to social pressure predicted fewer drinks consumed at 12 months (IRR = 0.67, p < 0.05). Coping and social reasons were both predictive for HIV monoinfected patients, whereas only coping reasons were predictive for HIV/HCV coinfected patients. Drinking for coping and social reasons predict alcohol involvement 12 months later; however, social reasons may only be important for HIV monoinfected patients. Understanding patient reasons for drinking may help predict patient risk up to a year later. KEY MESSAGES Among HIV patients, drinking motives predict alcohol involvement 12 months later. For HIV monoinfected patients, drinking to cope and drinking for social reasons predict 12-month alcohol involvement. For HIV/Hepatitis C coinfected patients, coping (but not social) motives predict 12-month alcohol involvement.

Fewer out-of-sequence vaccinations and reduction of child mortality in Northern Ghana.

PubMed

Welaga, Paul; Oduro, Abraham; Debpuur, Cornelius; Aaby, Peter; Ravn, Henrik; Andersen, Andreas; Binka, Fred; Hodgson, Abraham

2017-04-25

Studies suggest that diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine administered simultaneously with measles vaccine (MV) or DTP administered after MV are associated with higher child mortality than having MV-after-DTP3 as most recent vaccination. We tested this in Northern Ghana where the prevalence of such out-of-sequence vaccinations has declined. Using annual cohort data of children aged 12-23months from 1996 to 2012 and Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed survival in relation to the most recent vaccination status within the next 12months and until five years of age. We assessed whether mortality in children aged 12-59months was higher when the most recent vaccine was non-live (DTP) rather than live (MV or OPV). Out-of-sequence vaccinations with DTP-containing vaccines and MV declined from 86% in 1989 to 24% in 1996 and 0.7% in 2012. Between 1996 and 2012, 38 070 children had their vaccinations status assessed: the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for out-of-sequence vaccinations (DTP>=MV) compared with the recommended sequence of MV-after-DTP3 was 1.42(1.06-1.90) during the first 12months after assessment of vaccination status and 1.29(1.03-1.60) with follow-up to five years of age; the HR was 2.58(1.14-5.84) before OPV or MV campaigns and 1.37(1.02-1.85) after the campaigns. Out-of-sequence vaccinations with DTP and MV are associated with higher mortality than MV as most recent vaccination; the effect is unlikely to be due to confounding. Hence, the reduction in out-of-sequence vaccinations may have lowered child mortality. It is recommended not to give DTP with MV or DTP after MV. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality of patients with COPD participating in chronic disease management programmes: a happy end?

PubMed

Peytremann-Bridevaux, I; Taffe, P; Burnand, B; Bridevaux, P O; Puhan, M A

2014-09-01

Concerns about increased mortality could question the role of COPD chronic disease management (CDM) programmes. We aimed at extending a recent Cochrane review to assess the effects of CDM on mortality in patients with COPD. Mortality data were available for 25 out of 29 trials identified in a COPD integrated care systematic review. Meta-analysis using random-effects models was performed, followed by subgroup analyses according to study length (3-12 months vs >12 months), main intervention component (exercise, self-management, structured follow-up) and use of an action plan. The meta-analysis showed no impact of CDM on mortality (pooled OR: 1.00, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.28). These results do not suggest that CDM programmes expose patients with COPD to excessive mortality risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Seasonal effect and long-term nutritional status following exit from a Community-Based Management of Severe Acute Malnutrition program in Bihar, India.

PubMed

Burza, S; Mahajan, R; Marino, E; Sunyoto, T; Shandilya, C; Tabrez, M; Kumar, K; Jha, A; Mathew, P; Salse, N; Casademont, C; Mishra, N K

2016-04-01

Children aged 6 months to 5 years completing treatment for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in a Médecins Sans Frontières Community Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) program in Bihar, India, showed high cure rates; however, the program suffered default rates of 38%. This report describes the nutritional status of 1956 children followed up between 3 and 18 months after exiting the program. All children aged 6-59 months discharged as cured with mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) ⩾120 mm or who defaulted from the program with MUAC <115 mm were traced at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 18 months (±10 days) before three exit reference dates: first at the end of the food insecure period, second after the 2-month food security and third after the 4-month food security. Overall, 68.7% (n=692) of defaulters and 76.2% (n=1264) of children discharged as cured were traced. Combined rates of non-recovery in children who defaulted with MUAC <115 mm were 41%, 30.1%, 9.9%, 6.1% and 3.6% at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 18 months following exit, respectively. Combined rates of relapse among cured cases (MUAC ⩾120 mm) were 9.1%, 2.9%, 2.1%, 2.8% and 0% at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 18 months following discharge, respectively. Prevalence of undernutrition increased substantially for both groups traced during low food security periods. Odds of death were much higher for children defaulting with MUAC <110 mm when compared with children discharged as cured, who shared the same mortality risk as those defaulting with MUAC 110-<115 mm. Seasonal food security predicted short-term nutritional status after exit, with relapse rates and non-recovery from SAM much higher during food insecurity. Mortality outcomes suggest that a MUAC of 110 mm may be considered an appropriate admission point for SAM treatment programs in this context.

Pulmonary Hypertension After Heart Transplantation in Patients Bridged with the Total Artificial Heart.

PubMed

Shah, Rachit; Patel, Dhavalkumar B; Mankad, Anit K; Rennyson, Stephen L; Tang, Daniel G; Quader, Mohammed A; Smallfield, Melissa C; Kasirajan, Vigneshwar; Shah, Keyur B

2016-01-01

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) among heart transplant recipients is associated with an increased risk of mortality. Pulmonary hemodynamics improves after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation; however, the impact of PH before total artificial heart (TAH) implantation on posttransplant hemodynamics and survival is unknown. This is a single center retrospective study aimed to evaluate the impact of TAH implantation on posttransplant hemodynamics and mortality in two groups stratified according to severity of PH: high (≥3 Woods units [WU]) and low (<3 WU) baseline pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR). Hemodynamic data were obtained from right heart catheterization performed at baseline (before TAH) and posttransplant at 1 and 12 months. Patients in the high PVR group (n = 12) experienced improvement in PVR (baseline = 4.31 ± 0.7; 1-month = 1.69 ± 0.7, p < 0.001; 12-month = 48 ± 0.9, p < 0.001) and transpulmonary gradient (baseline = 15.8 ± 3.3; 1-month = 11.57 ± 5.0, p = 0.07; 12-month = 8.50 ± 4.0, p = 0.008) after transplantation, reaching similar values as the low PVR group at 12 months. The filling pressures improved in the high PVR group after heart transplantation (HT), but remained elevated. There was no significant difference in survival between the two groups at 12 months follow-up. Patients with high PVR who are bridged to transplant with TAH had improvement in PVR at 12 months after transplant, and the degree of PVR did not impact posttransplant survival.

Early and late mortality of spontaneous hemorrhagic transformation of ischemic stroke.

PubMed

D'Amelio, Marco; Terruso, Valeria; Famoso, Giorgia; Di Benedetto, Norma; Realmuto, Sabrina; Valentino, Francesca; Ragonese, Paolo; Savettieri, Giovanni; Aridon, Paolo

2014-04-01

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT), a complication of ischemic stroke (IS), might influence patient's prognosis. Our aim is to evaluate, in a hospital-based series of patients not treated with thrombolysis, the relationship between HT and mortality. We compared mortality of individuals with spontaneous HT with that of individuals without. Medical records of patients diagnosed with anterior IS were retrospectively reviewed. Outcome measures were 30- and 90-day survival after IS onset. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to construct survival curves. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) for the main outcome measure (death). HT was stratified in hemorrhagic infarction and parenchymal hematoma (PH). We also evaluated the relationship between HT and the main mortality risk factors (gender, age, premorbid status, severity of stroke, and radiological features). Thirty days from stroke onset, 8.1% (19 of 233) of patients died. At multivariate analysis, PH (HR: 7.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1, 27.8) and low level of consciousness at admission (HR: 5.0, 95% CI: 1.3, 18.6) were significantly associated with death. At 3-month follow-up, mortality rate was 12.1% (28 of 232). At multivariate analysis, large infarct size (HR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.2, 6.0) and HT (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.0, 5.4) were independent risk factors for mortality. Parenchymal hematoma was, however, the strongest predictor of late mortality (HR: 7.9, 95% CI: 2.9, 21.4). Neurological status and infarct size play a significant role, respectively, in early and late mortality after IS. Parenchymal hematoma independently predicts both early and late mortality. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interpretable Topic Features for Post-ICU Mortality Prediction.

PubMed

Luo, Yen-Fu; Rumshisky, Anna

2016-01-01

Electronic health records provide valuable resources for understanding the correlation between various diseases and mortality. The analysis of post-discharge mortality is critical for healthcare professionals to follow up potential causes of death after a patient is discharged from the hospital and give prompt treatment. Moreover, it may reduce the cost derived from readmissions and improve the quality of healthcare. Our work focused on post-discharge ICU mortality prediction. In addition to features derived from physiological measurements, we incorporated ICD-9-CM hierarchy into Bayesian topic model learning and extracted topic features from medical notes. We achieved highest AUCs of 0.835 and 0.829 for 30-day and 6-month post-discharge mortality prediction using baseline and topic proportions derived from Labeled-LDA. Moreover, our work emphasized the interpretability of topic features derived from topic model which may facilitates the understanding and investigation of the complexity between mortality and diseases.

Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke in Relation to Blood DNA Methylation

PubMed Central

Baccarelli, Andrea; Wright, Robert; Bollati, Valentina; Litonjua, Augusto; Zanobetti, Antonella; Tarantini, Letizia; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel

2013-01-01

Background Epigenetic features such as DNA hypomethylation have been associated with conditions related to cardiovascular risk. We evaluated whether lower blood DNA methylation in heavily methylated repetitive sequences predicts the risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke. Methods We quantified blood DNA methylation of LINE-1 repetitive elements through PCR-pyrosequencing in 712 elderly individuals from the Boston-area Normative Aging Study. We estimated risk-factor adjusted relative risks (RRs) for ischemic heart disease and stroke at baseline (242 prevalent cases); as well as in incidence (44 new cases; median follow-up, 63 months); and subsequent mortality from ischemic heart disease (86 deaths; median follow-up, 75 months). Results Blood LINE-1 hypomethylation was associated with baseline ischemic heart disease (RR=2.1 [95% confidence interval = 1.2 to 4.0] for lowest vs. highest methylation quartile) and for stroke (2.5 [0.9 to 7.5]). Among participants free of baseline disease, individuals with methylation below the median also had higher risk of developing ischemic heart disease (4.0 [1.8 to 8.9]) or stroke (5.7 [0.8 to 39.5]). In the entire cohort, persons with methylation below the median had higher mortality from ischemic heart disease (3.3 [1.3 to 8.4]) and stroke (2.8 [0.6 to 14.3]). Total mortality was also increased (2.0 [1.2 to 3.3]). These results were confirmed in additional regression models using LINE-1 methylation as a continuous variable. Conclusions Subjects with prevalent IHD and stroke exhibited lower LINE-1 methylation. In longitudinal analyses, persons with lower LINE-1 methylation were at higher risk for incident ischemic heart disease and stroke, and for total mortality. PMID:20805753

Daily Home Spirometry: An Effective Tool for Detecting Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

PubMed Central

Russell, Anne-Marie; Adamali, Huzaifa; Molyneaux, Philip L.; Lukey, Pauline T.; Marshall, Richard P.; Renzoni, Elisabetta A.; Wells, Athol U.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Recent clinical trial successes have created an urgent need for earlier and more sensitive endpoints of disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Domiciliary spirometry permits more frequent measurement of FVC than does hospital-based assessment, which therefore affords the opportunity for a more granular insight into changes in IPF progression. Objectives: To determine the feasibility and reliability of measuring daily FVC in individuals with IPF. Methods: Subjects with IPF were given handheld spirometers and instruction on how to self-administer spirometry. Subjects recorded daily FEV1 and FVC for up to 490 days. Clinical assessment and hospital-based spirometry was undertaken at 6 and 12 months, and outcome data were collected for 3 years. Measurements and Main Results: Daily spirometry was recorded by 50 subjects for a median period of 279 days (range, 13–490 d). There were 18 deaths during the active study period. Home spirometry showed excellent correlation with hospital-obtained readings. The rate of decline in FVC was highly predictive of outcome and subsequent mortality when measured at 3 months (hazard ratio [HR], 1.040; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.021–1.062; P ≤ 0.001), 6 months (HR, 1.024; 95% CI, 1.014–1.033; P < 0.001), and 12 months (HR, 1.012; 95% CI, 1.007–1.016; P = 0.001). Conclusions: Measurement of daily home spirometry in patients with IPF is highly clinically informative and is feasible to perform for most of these patients. The relationship between mortality and rate of change of FVC at 3 months suggests that daily FVC may be of value as a primary endpoint in short proof-of-concept IPF studies. PMID:27089018

p53 predictive value for pT1-2 N0 disease at radical cystectomy.

PubMed

Shariat, Shahrokh F; Lotan, Yair; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Ashfaq, Raheela; Isbarn, Hendrik; Fradet, Yves; Bastian, Patrick J; Nielsen, Matthew E; Capitanio, Umberto; Jeldres, Claudio; Montorsi, Francesco; Müller, Stefan C; Karam, Jose A; Heukamp, Lukas C; Netto, George; Lerner, Seth P; Sagalowsky, Arthur I; Cote, Richard J

2009-09-01

Approximately 15% to 30% of patients with pT1-2N0M0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder experience disease progression despite radical cystectomy with curative intent. We determined whether p53 expression would improve the prediction of disease progression after radical cystectomy for pT1-2N0M0 UCB. In a multi-institutional retrospective cohort we identified 324 patients with pT1-2N0M0 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder who underwent radical cystectomy. Analysis focused on a testing cohort of 272 patients and an external validation of 52. Competing risks regression models were used to test the association of variables with cancer specific mortality after accounting for nonbladder cancer caused mortality. In the testing cohort 91 patients (33.5%) had altered p53 expression (p53alt). On multivariate competing risks regression analysis altered p53 achieved independent status for predicting disease recurrence and cancer specific mortality (each p <0.001). Adding p53 increased the accuracy of multivariate competing risks regression models predicting recurrence and cancer specific mortality by 5.7% (62.0% vs 67.7%) and 5.4% (61.6% vs 67.0%), respectively. Alterations in p53 represent a highly promising marker of disease recurrence and cancer specific mortality after radical cystectomy for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. Analysis confirmed previous findings and showed that considering p53 can result in substantial accuracy gains relative to the use of standard predictors. The value and the level of the current evidence clearly exceed previous proof of the independent predictor status of p53 for predicting recurrence and cancer specific mortality.

Predictors of 30-day mortality in patients admitted to ED for acute heart failure.

PubMed

Marchetti, Matthieu; Benedetti, Antoine; Mimoz, Olivier; Lardeur, Jean-Yves; Guenezan, Jérémy; Marjanovic, Nicolas

2017-03-01

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of admission in emergency departments (ED). It is associated with significant in-hospital mortality, suggesting that there is room for improvement of care. Our aims were to investigate clinical patterns, biological characteristics and determinants of 30-day mortality. We conducted a single site, retrospective review of adult patients (≥18years) admitted to ED for AHF over a 12-month period. Data collected included demographics, clinical, biological and outcomes data. Epidemiologic data were collected at baseline, and patients were followed up during a 30-day period. There were a total of 322 patients. Mean age was 83.9±9.1years, and 47% of the patients were men. Among them, 59 patients (18.3%) died within 30days of admission to the ED. The following three characteristics were associated with increased mortality: age>85years (OR=1.5[95%CI:0.8-2.7], p=0.01), creatinine clearance <30mL/min (OR=2.6[95%CI:1.4-5], p<0.001) and Nt-proBNP >5000pg/mL (OR=2.2[95%CI:1.2-4], p<0.001). The best Nt-proBNP cut-off value to predict first-day mortality was 9000pg/mL (area under the curve (AUC) [95%CI] of 0.790 [0.634-0.935], p<0.001). For 7-day mortality, it was 7900pg/mL (0.698 [0.578-0.819], p<0.001) and for 30-day mortality, 5000pg/mL (0.667 [0.576-0.758], p<0.001). Nt-proBNP level on admission, age and creatinine clearance, are predictive of 30-day mortality in adult patients admitted to ED for AHF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel pathologic scoring tools predict end-stage kidney disease in light chain (AL) amyloidosis.

PubMed

Rubinstein, Samuel; Cornell, Robert F; Du, Liping; Concepcion, Beatrice; Goodman, Stacey; Harrell, Shelton; Horst, Sara; Lenihan, Daniel; Slosky, David; Fogo, Agnes; Langone, Anthony

2017-09-01

Light chain (AL) amyloidosis frequently involves the kidney, causing significant morbidity and mortality. A pathologic scoring system with prognostic utility has not been developed. We hypothesized that the extent of amyloid deposition and degree of scarring injury on kidney biopsy, could provide prognostic value, and aimed to develop pathologic scoring tools based on these features. This is a case-control study of 39 patients treated for AL amyloidosis with biopsy-proven kidney involvement at a large academic medical center. Our novel scoring tools, composite scarring injury score (CSIS) and amyloid score (AS) were applied to each kidney biopsy. The primary outcome was progression to dialysis-dependent end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) using a 12-month landmark analysis. At 12 months, nine patients had progressed to ESKD. Patients with an AS ≥7.5 had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of ESKD than those with AS <7.5 (p = .04, 95% CI 0.13-0.64). Using a 12-month landmark analysis, AS correlated with progression to ESKD. These data suggest that a kidney biopsy, in addition to providing diagnostic information, can be the basis for a pathologic scoring system with prognostic significance.

Risk factors for three-month mortality after discharge in a cohort of non-oncologic hospitalized elderly patients: Results from the REPOSI study.

PubMed

Pasina, Luca; Cortesi, Laura; Tiraboschi, Mara; Nobili, Alessandro; Lanzo, Giovanna; Tettamanti, Mauro; Franchi, Carlotta; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio; Ghidoni, Silvia; Assolari, Andrea; Brucato, Antonio

2018-01-01

Short-term prognosis, e.g. mortality at three months, has many important implications in planning the overall management of patients, particularly non-oncologic patients in order to avoid futile practices. The aims of this study were: i) to investigate the risk of three-month mortality after discharge from internal medicine and geriatric wards of non-oncologic patients with at least one of the following conditions: permanent bedridden status during the hospital stay; severely reduced kidney function; hypoalbuminemia; hospital admissions in the previous six months; severe dementia; ii) to establish the absolute risk difference of three-month mortality of bedridden compared to non-bedridden patients. This prospective cohort study was run in 102 Italian internal medicine and geriatric hospital wards. The sample included all patients with three-months follow-up data. Bedridden condition was defined as the inability to walk or stand upright during the whole hospital stay. The following parameters were also recorded: estimated GFR≤29mL/min/1.73m 2 ; severe dementia; albuminemia ≪2.5g/dL; hospital admissions in the six months before the index admission. Of 3915 patients eligible for the analysis, three-month follow-up were available for 2058, who were included in the study. Bedridden patients were 112 and the absolute risk difference of mortality at three months was 0.13 (CI 95% 0.08-0.19, p≪0.0001). Logistic regression analysis also adjusted for age, sex, number of drugs and comorbidity index found that bedridden condition (OR 2.10, CI 95% 1.12-3.94), severely reduced kidney function (OR 2.27, CI 95% 1.22-4.21), hospital admission in the previous six months (OR 1.96, CI 95% 1.22-3.14), severe dementia (with total or severe physical dependence) (OR 4.16, CI 95% 2.39-7.25) and hypoalbuminemia (OR 2.47, CI 95% 1.12-5.44) were significantly associated with higher risk of three-month mortality. Bedridden status, severely reduced kidney function, recent hospital admissions, severe dementia and hypoalbuminemia were associated with higher risk of three-month mortality in non-oncologic patients after discharge from internal medicine and geriatric hospital wards. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incidence and predictors of 6 months mortality after an acute heart failure event in rural Uganda: The Mbarara Heart Failure Registry (MAHFER).

PubMed

Abeya, Fardous Charles; Lumori, Boniface Amanee Elias; Akello, Suzan Joan; Annex, Brian H; Buda, Andrew J; Okello, Samson

2018-03-29

We sought to estimate the incidence and predictors of all-cause mortality 6 months after heart failure hospitalization in Uganda. Mbarara Heart Failure Registry is a cohort of patients hospitalized with a clinical diagnosis of heart failure at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital, Uganda. We measured serum electrolytes, cardiac markers, and echocardiograms. All participants were followed until death or end of 6 months. We used Fine and Gray models to estimate the incidence and predictors all-cause mortality. A total of 215 participants were enrolled, 141 (66%) were women, and mean age 53 (standard deviation 22) years. Nineteen (9%) had diabetes, 40 (19%) had HIV, and 119 (55%) had hypertension. The overall incidence of all-cause mortality was 3.58 (95% CI 2.92, 4.38) per 1000 person-days. Men had higher incidence of death compared to women (4.02 vs 3.37 per 1000 person-days). The incidence of all-cause mortality during hospitalization was almost twice that of in the community (27.5 vs 14.77 per 1000 person-days). In adjusted analysis, increasing age, NYHA class IV, decreasing renal function, smoking, each unit increase in serum levels of Potassium, BNP, and Creatine kinase-MB predicted increased incidence of 6 months all-cause death whereas taking beta-blockers and having an index admission on a weekend compared to a week day predicted survival. There is a high incidence of all-cause mortality occurring in-hospital among patients hospitalized with heart failure in rural Uganda. Heart failure directed therapies should be instituted to curb heart failure-related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Nine-Year Follow-up Study of Sleep Patterns and Mortality in Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chen, Hsi-Chung; Su, Tung-Ping; Chou, Pesus

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: To simultaneously explore the associations between mortality and insomnia, sleep duration, and the use of hypnotics in older adults. Design: A fixed cohort study. Setting: A community in Shih-Pai area, Taipei, Taiwan. Participants: A total of 4,064 participants over the age of 65 completed the study. Intervention: N/A. Measurements and Results: Insomnia was classified using an exclusionary hierarchical algorithm, which categorized insomnia as “no insomnia,” “subjective poor sleep quality,” “Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index > 5 insomnia,” “1-month insomnia disorder,” and “6-month insomnia disorder.” The main outcome variables were 9-year all-cause mortality rates. In the all-cause mortality analyses, when hypnotic use, depressive symptoms and total sleep time were excluded from a proportional hazards regression model, subjects with “Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index > 5 insomnia” had a higher mortality risk (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.01-1.45). In the full model, frequent hypnotic use and long sleep duration predicted higher mortality rates. However, the increased mortality risk for subjects with “Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index > 5 insomnia” was not observed in the full model. On the contrary, individuals with a 6-month DSM-IV insomnia disorder had a lower risk for premature death (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.43-0.96). Conclusions: Long sleep duration and frequent hypnotics use predicted an increased mortality risk within a community-dwelling sample of older adults. The association between insomnia and mortality was affected by insomnia definition and other parameters related to sleep patterns. Citation: Chen HC; Su TP; Chou P. A nine-year follow-up study of sleep patterns and mortality in community-dwelling older adults in Taiwan. SLEEP 2013;36(8):1187-1198. PMID:23904679

Predicting short term mortality after investigation for venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Hogg, Kerstin; Hinchliffe, Edward; Haslam, Shonagh; Sethi, Bilal; Carrier, Marc; Lecky, Fiona

2013-04-01

Deaths following diagnosis of venous thromboembolism (VTE) often result from another concurrent illness. The specificity of mortality markers predicting death from pulmonary embolism is unknown. The aim of this analysis was to compare blood predictors of death in patients with confirmed VTE to patients with negative investigations for VTE. Consecutive patients investigated for VTE were prospectively consented from a single hospital over 9months. VTE was diagnosed and excluded with a standard diagnostic algorithm. Blood was drawn for biomarker analysis and analyzed in batches for NT-proBNP, high sensitivity troponin T, C-reactive protein (CRP), fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and ischemia modified albumin (IMA). Participants were followed for 3months. The cohort was analyzed in two groups: those diagnosed with VTE and those who had thrombosis excluded. Regression analysis for 3-month mortality was performed for each group. 16/153 patients diagnosed with VTE died within three months (10.5%) as did 23/606 patients who had negative investigations for VTE (3.8%). Predictors for death following VTE included cancer, NT-proBNP, troponin T, FABP, and Hb<95g/L. NT-proBNP>500pg/ml in acute cancer associated VTE predicted death with C-statistic of 0.89 (0.80-0.99). Cancer, NT-proBNP and troponin T also predicted death in patients with negative investigations for VTE. Several blood markers are not specific for death from PE and may be surrogate markers of global declining health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Nephrology Referral 6 Months Before Dialysis Initiation Can Reduce Early Death But Does Not Improve Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcome on Dialysis.

PubMed

Hayashi, Terumasa; Kimura, Tomonori; Yasuda, Keiko; Sasaki, Koichi; Obi, Yoshitsugu; Nagayama, Harumi; Ohno, Motoki; Uematsu, Kazusei; Tamai, Takehiro; Nishide, Takahiro; Rakugi, Hiromi; Isaka, Yoshitaka

2016-01-01

There is a paucity of studies on whether early referral (ER) to nephrologist could reduce cardiovascular mortality on dialysis, and the length of pre-dialysis nephrological care needed to reduce mortality on dialysis. A total of 604 consecutive patients who started dialysis between 2001 and 2009 in Senshu region, Osaka, Japan were analyzed. Non-linear associations between mortality and pre-dialysis duration of nephrological care were assessed using restricted cubic spline function, and predictors for death analyzed on Cox modeling. A total of 31.6%, 18.2%, 11.3% and 6.1% of patients had >12, 24, 36 and 48 months of pre-dialysis care, respectively. A total of 258 patients (42.7%) were categorized as ER (≥6 months pre-dialysis duration). During the follow-up period (median, 31.1 months), 218 patients died (cardiovascular, n=70; infection, n=69). Although patients with late referral (LR) had a proxy of inappropriate pre-dialysis care compared with the ER group, Cox multivariate analysis failed to show a favorable association between ER and cardiovascular outcome. In contrast, a deleterious effect of LR on overall survival was observed but was limited only to the first 12 months of dialysis (HR, 1.957; 95% CI: 1.104-3.469; P=0.021), but not observed thereafter. Current pre-dialysis nephrological care may reduce short-term mortality but may not improve cardiovascular mortality after dialysis initiation.

Hydraulic limits preceding mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland under experimental drought.

PubMed

Plaut, Jennifer A; Yepez, Enrico A; Hill, Judson; Pangle, Robert; Sperry, John S; Pockman, William T; McDowell, Nate G

2012-09-01

Drought-related tree mortality occurs globally and may increase in the future, but we lack sufficient mechanistic understanding to accurately predict it. Here we present the first field assessment of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality in an ecosystem-scale rainfall manipulation of a piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We measured transpiration (E) and modelled the transpiration rate initiating hydraulic failure (E(crit) ). We predicted that isohydric piñon would experience mortality after prolonged periods of severely limited gas exchange as required to avoid hydraulic failure; anisohydric juniper would also avoid hydraulic failure, but sustain gas exchange due to its greater cavitation resistance. After 1 year of treatment, 67% of droughted mature piñon died with concomitant infestation by bark beetles (Ips confusus) and bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma spp.); no mortality occurred in juniper or in control piñon. As predicted, both species avoided hydraulic failure, but safety margins from E(crit) were much smaller in piñon, especially droughted piñon, which also experienced chronically low hydraulic conductance. The defining characteristic of trees that died was a 7 month period of near-zero gas exchange, versus 2 months for surviving piñon. Hydraulic limits to gas exchange, not hydraulic failure per se, promoted drought-related mortality in piñon pine. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Standardized analysis of German cattle mortality using national register data.

PubMed

Pannwitz, Gunter

2015-03-01

In a retrospective cohort study of national register data, 1946 randomly selected holdings, with 286,912 individual cattle accumulating 170,416 animal-years were analyzed. The sample was considered to represent the national herd in Germany 2012. Within each holding, individual cattle records were stratified by current age (≤21 days, 3-6 weeks, 6-12 weeks, 3-6 months, 6-12 months, 1-2, 2-4, 4-8, and >8 years), sex, breed (intensive milk, less intensive milk, and beef), and mean monthly air temperature (<10°C and ≥10°C). Holdings were categorized by size (<100 and ≥100 animal-years), calving rate, slaughter rate, and federal state. 8027 on-site deaths (excluding slaughter for human consumption) were recorded, with cattle aged <6 months, 6-24 months, and >2 years contributing 50.0%, 15.4%, and 34.6% of deaths, respectively. Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations (gee) accounting for intra-herd clustering were used to model the number of deaths. In both models, most age bands differed significantly, with highest rates in calves ≤21 days, falling to lowest rates in 1-2 year olds, and rising again thereafter in females. Males exhibited higher mortality than females from birth to 2 years. All breed categories differed significantly with lowest rates in beef and highest in intensive milk breeds. Larger holdings, temperatures ≤10°C, calving rates >0-0.5 per animal year were all associated with higher mortality. Via interaction, intensive and less intensive milk breed cattle aging 6 weeks to 6 months and intensive milk breed females >4 years were associated with higher mortality. There were no significant differences between federal states and slaughter rates. The standardized deviations of modeled dead cattle numbers from occurred deaths per calendar year per holding were calculated and a 95% reference range of deviations constructed. This approach makes a standardized active monitoring and surveillance system regardless of herd size possible, offering a useful, inexpensive and easy implementable aid in the detection of holdings deviant from mortality levels of the national herd. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Demography and health of “village dogs” in rural Western Uganda

PubMed Central

Hyeroba, David; Friant, Sagan; Acon, Johnson; Okwee-Acai, James; Goldberg, Tony L.

2017-01-01

“Village dogs” in developing economies are assumed to be heavily burdened by infectious disease. We followed a cohort of 61 village dogs in rural western Uganda prospectively for fifteen months to measure changes in health and demographic outcomes, and to examine risk factors for morbidity and mortality. The mean (± standard deviation) number of dogs per household was 2.4 (± 2.0), of which 56.0% were male and 44.0% female. For females, average age at first estrus was 1.7 (± 0.6) years with a mean litter size of 3.8 (± 1.5). In the first, second and third parities, average puppy mortality per litter was 3.2 (± 2.5), 2.4 (± 2.1) and 3.4 (± 2.9), respectively. The main causes of morbidity and mortality were infectious disease (46.1%), culling (euthanasia) by owners (30.8%), and attacks by baboons, Papio anubis (23.1%). Cox proportional hazard regression showed that a clinical diagnosis of anemia significantly predicted morbidity (HR = 4.3 (95% CI: 1.1–17.8); p < 0.05), and younger age significantly predicted mortality (HR = 3.6 (95% CI: 1.2–10.6); p < 0.05). Our results indicate that infectious disease is indeed important to the health and survival in village dogs in this setting, but that cultural practices related to ownership and interactions with wildlife also contribute substantially to morbidity and mortality. PMID:28107877

Pollinosis and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and elderly Japanese: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Konishi, S; Ng, C F S; Stickley, A; Watanabe, C

2016-08-01

Having an allergic disease may have health implications beyond those more commonly associated with allergy given that previous epidemiological studies have suggested that both atopy and allergy are linked to mortality. More viable immune functioning among the elderly, as indicated by the presence of an allergic disease, might therefore be associated with differences in all-cause mortality. Using data from a Japanese cohort, this study examined whether having pollinosis (a form of allergic rhinitis) in a follow-up survey could predict all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Data came from the Komo-Ise cohort, which at its 1993 baseline recruited residents aged 40-69 years from two areas in Gunma prefecture, Japan. The current study used information on pollinosis that was obtained from the follow-up survey in 2000. Mortality and migration data were obtained throughout the follow-up period up to December 2008. Proportional hazard models were used to examine the relation between pollinosis and mortality. At the 2000 follow-up survey, 12% (1088 of 8796) of respondents reported that they had pollinosis symptoms in the past 12 months. During the 76 186 person-years of follow-up, 748 died from all causes. Among these, there were 37 external, 208 cardiovascular, 74 respiratory, and 329 neoplasm deaths. After adjusting for potential confounders, pollinosis was associated with significantly lower all-cause [hazard ratio 0.57 (95% confidence interval = 0.38-0.87)] and neoplasms mortality [hazard ratio 0.48 (95% confidence interval = 0.26-0.92)]. Having an allergic disease (pollinosis) at an older age may be indicative of more viable immune functioning and be protective against certain causes of death. Further research is needed to determine the possible mechanisms underlying the association between pollinosis and mortality. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Severe acute malnutrition in childhood: hormonal and metabolic status at presentation, response to treatment, and predictors of mortality.

PubMed

Bartz, Sarah; Mody, Aaloke; Hornik, Christoph; Bain, James; Muehlbauer, Michael; Kiyimba, Tonny; Kiboneka, Elizabeth; Stevens, Robert; Bartlett, John; St Peter, John V; Newgard, Christopher B; Freemark, Michael

2014-06-01

Malnutrition is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. To identify and target those at highest risk, there is a critical need to characterize biomarkers that predict complications prior to and during treatment. We used targeted and nontargeted metabolomic analysis to characterize changes in a broad array of hormones, cytokines, growth factors, and metabolites during treatment of severe childhood malnutrition. Children aged 6 months to 5 years were studied at presentation to Mulago Hospital and during inpatient therapy with milk-based formulas and outpatient supplementation with ready-to-use food. We assessed the relationship between baseline hormone and metabolite levels and subsequent mortality. Seventy-seven patients were enrolled in the study; a subset was followed up from inpatient treatment to the outpatient clinic. Inpatient and outpatient therapies increased weight/height z scores and induced striking changes in the levels of fatty acids, amino acids, acylcarnitines, inflammatory cytokines, and various hormones including leptin, insulin, GH, ghrelin, cortisol, IGF-I, glucagon-like peptide-1, and peptide YY. A total of 12.2% of the patients died during hospitalization; the major biochemical factor predicting mortality was a low level of leptin (P = .0002), a marker of adipose tissue reserve and a critical modulator of immune function. We have used metabolomic analysis to provide a comprehensive hormonal and metabolic profile of severely malnourished children at presentation and during nutritional rehabilitation. Our findings suggest that fatty acid metabolism plays a central role in the adaptation to acute malnutrition and that low levels of the adipose tissue hormone leptin associate with, and may predict, mortality prior to and during treatment.

Severe Acute Malnutrition in Childhood: Hormonal and Metabolic Status at Presentation, Response to Treatment, and Predictors of Mortality

PubMed Central

Bartz, Sarah; Mody, Aaloke; Hornik, Christoph; Bain, James; Muehlbauer, Michael; Kiyimba, Tonny; Kiboneka, Elizabeth; Stevens, Robert; Bartlett, John; St Peter, John V.; Newgard, Christopher B.

2014-01-01

Objective: Malnutrition is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. To identify and target those at highest risk, there is a critical need to characterize biomarkers that predict complications prior to and during treatment. Methods: We used targeted and nontargeted metabolomic analysis to characterize changes in a broad array of hormones, cytokines, growth factors, and metabolites during treatment of severe childhood malnutrition. Children aged 6 months to 5 years were studied at presentation to Mulago Hospital and during inpatient therapy with milk-based formulas and outpatient supplementation with ready-to-use food. We assessed the relationship between baseline hormone and metabolite levels and subsequent mortality. Results: Seventy-seven patients were enrolled in the study; a subset was followed up from inpatient treatment to the outpatient clinic. Inpatient and outpatient therapies increased weight/height z scores and induced striking changes in the levels of fatty acids, amino acids, acylcarnitines, inflammatory cytokines, and various hormones including leptin, insulin, GH, ghrelin, cortisol, IGF-I, glucagon-like peptide-1, and peptide YY. A total of 12.2% of the patients died during hospitalization; the major biochemical factor predicting mortality was a low level of leptin (P = .0002), a marker of adipose tissue reserve and a critical modulator of immune function. Conclusions: We have used metabolomic analysis to provide a comprehensive hormonal and metabolic profile of severely malnourished children at presentation and during nutritional rehabilitation. Our findings suggest that fatty acid metabolism plays a central role in the adaptation to acute malnutrition and that low levels of the adipose tissue hormone leptin associate with, and may predict, mortality prior to and during treatment. PMID:24606092

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland Study of Large Bowel Obstruction Caused by Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Tekkis, Paris P.; Kinsman, Robin; Thompson, Michael R.; Stamatakis, Jeffrey D.

2004-01-01

Background: This study was designed to investigate the early outcomes after surgical treatment of malignant large bowel obstruction (MBO) and to identify risk factors affecting operative mortality. Methods: Data were prospectively collected from 1046 patients with MBO by 294 surgeons in 148 UK hospitals during a 12-month period from April 1998. A predictive model of in-hospital mortality was developed using a 3-level Bayesian logistic regression analysis. Results: The median age of patients was 73 years (interquartile range 64–80). Of the 989 patients having surgery, 91.7% underwent bowel resection with an overall mortality of 15.7%. The multilevel model used the following independent risk factors to predict mortality: age (odds ratio [OR] 1.85 per 10 year increase), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (OR for American Society of Anesthesiologists grade I versus II,III,IV-V = 3.3,11.7,22.2), Dukes’ staging (OR for Dukes’ A versus B,C,D = 2.0, 2.1, 6.0), and mode of surgery (OR for scheduled versus urgent, emergency = 1.6, 2.3). A significant interhospital variability in operative mortality was evident with increasing age (variance = 0.004, SE = 0.001, P < 0.001). No detectable caseload effect was demonstrated between specialist colorectal and other general surgeons. Conclusions: Using prognostic models, it was possible to develop a risk-stratification index that accurately predicted survival in patients presenting with malignant large bowel obstruction. The methodology and model for risk adjusted survival can set the reference point for more accurate and reliable comparative analysis and be used as an adjunct to the process of informed consent. PMID:15213621

Cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality following a massive waterborne outbreak in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

PubMed Central

Hoxie, N J; Davis, J P; Vergeront, J M; Nashold, R D; Blair, K A

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study estimated the magnitude of cryptosporidiosis-associated mortality in the Milwaukee vicinity for 2 years following a massive waterborne outbreak. METHODS: Death certificates were reviewed. RESULTS: During approximately 2 years before the outbreak, cryptosporidiosis was listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death on the death certificates of four Milwaukee-vicinity residents. In the approximately 2 years after the outbreak, this number was 54, of whom 85% had acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) listed as the underlying cause of death. In the first 6 months after the outbreak, the number of death certificates indicating AIDS, but not cryptosporidiosis, as a cause of death was 19 (95% confidence interval = 12.26) higher than preoutbreak trends would have predicted. CONCLUSIONS: Waterborne outbreaks of cryptosporidium infection can result in significant mortality, particularly among immunocompromised populations. Any discussion of policies to ensure safe drinking water must consider the potential fatal consequences of waterborne cryptosporidiosis among immunocompromised populations. Images FIGURE 2 PMID:9431298

Hurricane Sandy (New Jersey): Mortality Rates in the Following Month and Quarter.

PubMed

Kim, Soyeon; Kulkarni, Prathit A; Rajan, Mangala; Thomas, Pauline; Tsai, Stella; Tan, Christina; Davidow, Amy

2017-08-01

To describe changes in mortality after Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on October 29, 2012. We used electronic death records to describe changes in all-cause and cause-specific mortality overall, in persons aged 76 years or older, and by 3 Sandy impact levels for the month and quarter following Hurricane Sandy compared with the same periods in earlier years adjusted for trends. All-cause mortality increased 6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2%, 11%) for the month, 5%, 8%, and 12% by increasing Sandy impact level; and 7% (95% CI = 5%, 10%) for the quarter, 5%, 8%, and 15% by increasing Sandy impact level. In elderly persons, all-cause mortality rates increased 10% (95% CI = 5%, 15%) and 13% (95% CI = 10%, 16%) in the month and quarter, respectively. Deaths that were cardiovascular disease-related increased by 6% in both periods, noninfectious respiratory disease-related by 24% in the quarter, infection-related by 20% in the quarter, and unintentional injury-related by 23% in the month. Mortality increased, heterogeneous by cause, for both periods after Hurricane Sandy, particularly in communities more severely affected and in the elderly, who may benefit from supportive services.

Predicting Outcome in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (SAH) Utilizing the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score.

PubMed

Zeiler, F A; Lo, B W Y; Akoth, E; Silvaggio, J; Kaufmann, A M; Teitelbaum, J; West, M

2017-12-01

Existing scoring systems for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients fail to accurately predict patient outcome. Our goal was to prospectively study the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score as applied to newly admitted aneurysmal SAH patients. All adult patients presenting to Health Sciences Center in Winnipeg from January 2013 to July 2015 (2.5 year period) with aneurysmal SAH were prospectively enrolled in this study. All patients were followed up to 6 months. FOUR score was calculated upon admission, with repeat calculation at 7 and 14 days. The primary outcomes were: mortality, as well as dichotomized 1- and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) values. Sixty-four patients were included, with a mean age of 54.2 years (range 26-85 years). The mean FOUR score upon admission pre- and post-external ventricular drain (EVD) was 10.3 (range 0-16) and 11.1 (range 3-16), respectively. There was a statistically significant association between pre-EVD FOUR score (total, eye, respiratory and motor sub-scores) with mortality, 1-month GOS, and 6-month GOS/mRS (p < 0.05 in all). The day 7 total, eye, respiratory, and motor FOUR scores were associated with mortality, 1-month GOS/mRS, and 6-month GOS/mRS (p < 0.05 in all). The day 14 total, eye, respiratory, and motor FOUR scores were associated with 6-month GOS (p < 0.05 in all). The day 7 cumulative FOUR score was associated with the development of clinical vasospasm (p < 0.05). The FOUR score at admission and day 7 post-SAH is associated with mortality, 1-month GOS/mRS, and 6-month GOS/mRS. The FOUR score at day 14 post-SAH is associated with 6-month GOS. The brainstem sub-score was not associated with 1- or 6-month primary outcomes.

Relationship between volume and survival in closed intensive care units is weak and apparent only in mechanically ventilated patients.

PubMed

Fernández, Rafael; Altaba, Susana; Cabre, Lluis; Lacueva, Victoria; Santos, Antonio; Solsona, Jose-Felipe; Añon, Jose-Manuel; Catalan, Rosa-Maria; Gutierrez, Maria-Jose; Fernandez-Cid, Ramon; Gomez-Tello, Vicente; Curiel, Emilio; Fernandez-Mondejar, Enrique; Oliva, Joan-Carles; Tizon, Ana Isabel; Gonzalez, Javier; Monedero, Pablo; Sanchez, Manuela Garcia; de la Torre, M Victoria; Ibañez, Pedro; Frutos, Fernando; Del Nogal, Frutos; Gomez, M Jesus; Marcos, Alfredo; Vera, Paula; Serrano, Jose Manuel; Umaran, Isabel; Carrillo, Andres; Lopez-Pueyo, M-Jose; Rascado, Pedro; Balerdi, Begoña; Suberviola, Borja; Hernandez, Gonzalo

2013-10-01

Recent studies have found an association between increased volume and increased intensive care unit (ICU) survival; however, this association might not hold true in ICUs with permanent intensivist coverage. Our objective was to determine whether ICU volume correlates with survival in the Spanish healthcare system. Post hoc analysis of a prospective study of all patients admitted to 29 ICUs during 3 months. At ICU discharge, the authors recorded demographic variables, severity score, and specific ICU treatments. Follow-up variables included ICU readmission and hospital mortality. Statistics include logistic multivariate analyses for hospital mortality according to quartiles of volume of patients. The authors studied 4,001 patients with a mean predicted risk of death of 23% (range at hospital level: 14-46%). Observed hospital mortality was 19% (range at hospital level: 11-35%), resulting in a standardized mortality ratio of 0.81 (range: 0.5-1.3). Among the 1,923 patients needing mechanical ventilation, the predicted risk of death was 32% (14-60%) and observed hospital mortality was 30% (12-61%), resulting in a standardized mortality ratio of 0.96 (0.5-1.7). The authors found no correlation between standardized mortality ratio and ICU volume in the entire population or in mechanically ventilated patients. Only mechanically ventilated patients in very low-volume ICUs had slightly worse outcome. In the currently studied healthcare system characterized by 24/7 intensivist coverage, the authors found wide variability in outcome among ICUs even after adjusting for severity of illness but no relationship between ICU volume and outcome. Only mechanically ventilated patients in very low-volume centers had slightly worse outcomes.

Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

2013-08-01

This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). SYNTAX score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

Clinical cosmobiology: distribution of deaths during 180 months and cosmophysical activity. The Lithuanian study, 1990-2004. The role of cosmic rays.

PubMed

Stoupel, Elyiahu; Kalediene, Ramune; Petrauskiene, Jadvyga; Starkuviene, Skirmante; Abramson, Evgeny; Israelevich, Peter; Sulkes, Jaqueline

2007-01-01

The aim of this study is a next step of our previous, initial, publications--to explore the links between monthly death number (total, and for the major death causes and each gender) with levels of monthly cosmophysical activity in a long-term, big cohort observation. Death number during 180 consecutive months from the National Registry of Lithuania for years 1990-2004 were studied. A total of 630,205 deaths were analyzed (333,035 males). For comparison, monthly indices of solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and cosmic ray activity and year and month (1-12) of the study were used. The cosmophysical data were obtained from space research centers in the USA, Russia, and Finland. Statistics. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and their probabilities (P) between compared parameters were calculated. A multivariate model of prediction was designed. It was a significant correlation between total monthly death number and indices of cosmic ray activity and, inverse, of solar activity; in men stronger than in women. Monthly geomagnetic activity was significantly correlated with traffic accidents, ischemic heart disease/stroke ratio, suicide victim number. Deaths from stroke, noncardiovascular causes, suicide, traffic accidents were related with cosmic ray activity and, inverse, with solar activity. Relationship of ischemic heart disease/stroke ratio to year of observation showed additional evidence for the growing role of stroke in cardiovascular mortality. Monthly death number is linked to cosmic ray activity, and inverse, to solar activity. Central place of stroke-related deaths in cardiovascular mortality is emerging. Geomagnetic activity, in monthly account, plays a relatively minor role. We presume that forces antagonistic to cosmic ray activity, like solar activity and geomagnetic activity, can prevent some negative biologic effects of cosmic ray.

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Gender-Age-Physiology Index Stage for Predicting Future Lung Function Decline.

PubMed

Salisbury, Margaret L; Xia, Meng; Zhou, Yueren; Murray, Susan; Tayob, Nabihah; Brown, Kevin K; Wells, Athol U; Schmidt, Shelley L; Martinez, Fernando J; Flaherty, Kevin R

2016-02-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive lung disease with variable course. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) Index and staging system uses clinical variables to stage mortality risk. It is unknown whether clinical staging predicts future decline in pulmonary function. We assessed whether the GAP stage predicts future pulmonary function decline and whether interval pulmonary function change predicts mortality after accounting for stage. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (N = 657) were identified retrospectively at three tertiary referral centers, and baseline GAP stages were assessed. Mixed models were used to describe average trajectories of FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess whether declines in pulmonary function ≥ 10% in 6 months predict mortality after accounting for GAP stage. Over a 2-year period, GAP stage was not associated with differences in yearly lung function decline. After accounting for stage, a 10% decrease in FVC or Dlco over 6 months independently predicted death or transplantation (FVC hazard ratio, 1.37; Dlco hazard ratio, 1.30; both, P ≤ .03). Patients with GAP stage 2 with declining pulmonary function experienced a survival profile similar to patients with GAP stage 3, with 1-year event-free survival of 59.3% (95% CI, 49.4-67.8) vs 56.9% (95% CI, 42.2-69.1). Baseline GAP stage predicted death or lung transplantation but not the rate of future pulmonary function decline. After accounting for GAP stage, a decline of ≥ 10% over 6 months independently predicted death or lung transplantation. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Liver transplant center performance profiling: 2005-2011 reports of the Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients.

PubMed

Kettelhut, Valeriya V; Nayar, Preethy

2013-06-01

CONTEXT-Transplant center performance profiling provides important information for various concerned parties. Comparing a transplant center's performance against the performance of the best-in-class centers may help in understanding the performance thresholds for the underperforming centers. OBJECTIVES-(1) To identify and describe "Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)-red-flag" performers and the "best-in-class" performers and (2) to examine the relationships between a center's performance profile and outcomes such as 1-year observed mortality, 1-month observed mortality, 1-year risk-adjusted mortality, and volume. METHODS-The data for analysis was obtained from the published reports on the Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients (SRTR) website for adult liver transplant programs compiled for the rolling 2 1/2-year cohorts of patients and included 7 cohorts of liver transplant recipients in the study from January through July 1, 2002, through December 31, 2010. We defined 4 performance profiles: CMS-red-flag, lower-than-expected, higher-than-expected, and best-in-class performers. RESULTS-The current SRTR methods classify approximately 7% of the adult liver centers as CMS-red-flag performers and 6% of the centers as best-in-class performers in every reported period. Neither of the low-volume centers (<30 liver transplants per 2 1/2-year cohort) was profiled as CMS-red-flag until the 2010 reporting period. The transplant center's profile was significantly associated with the 1-year and 1-month observed mortality rates in every reported cohort (P< .001). CONCLUSION-The CMS-red-flag profile can be characterized with the following: (1) the highest observed 1-year mortality, (2) the highest observed 1-month mortality, (3) a very large difference between the observed and adjusted mortality rates, and (4) the center volume greater than 30 liver transplants per 2 1/2-year cohort. The SRTR methods are not sensitive for performance profiling in the centers that perform fewer than 30 orthotopic liver transplants per 2 1/2-year cohort.

Illness perceptions predict survival in haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Chilcot, Joseph; Wellsted, David; Farrington, Ken

2011-01-01

Illness perceptions have been shown to be important determinants of functional and psychosocial outcomes, including quality of life and treatment adherence in end-stage renal disease patients. The aim of this prospective study was to determine whether haemodialysis patients' illness perceptions impact upon survival. Haemodialysis patients from a UK renal service completed the Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire. Over the study period (May 2007 to December 2010), all-cause mortality was recorded as the endpoint. 223 patients were followed up for a median of 15.9 months (min. 10 days, max. 42.7 months). The median dialysis vintage was 17.6 months (min. 4 days, max. 391.3 months). Treatment control perceptions demonstrated a significant association with mortality (HR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83-0.99, p = 0.03). After controlling for covariates, including age, albumin, extra renal comorbidity and depression scores, perception of treatment control remained a significant predictor of mortality (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99, p = 0.03). Patients' perceptions of treatment control (dialysis therapy) predict survival independently of survival risk factors, including comorbidity. Studies are required to test whether psychological interventions designed to modify maladaptive illness perceptions influence clinical outcomes in this patient setting. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Hazardous Alcohol Drinking as Predictor of Smoking Relapse (3-, 6-, and 12-Months Follow-Up) by Gender.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Cano, Rubén; López-Durán, Ana; Martínez-Vispo, Carmela; Martínez, Úrsula; Fernández Del Río, Elena; Becoña, Elisardo

2016-12-01

Diverse studies have found a relation between alcohol consumption and smoking relapse. Few studies have analyzed the relation of smoking relapse with pretreatment alcohol consumption and gender differences. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of alcohol consumption in smoking relapse over 12 months (3-, 6-, and 12-months follow-up) and to determine possible gender differences. The sample included 374 smokers who quit smoking by participating in a psychological smoking cessation treatment. We assessed hazardous pretreatment alcohol drinking (AUDIT), cigarette consumption (FTND; number of cigarettes) and sociodemographic variables. Higher scores on hazardous pretreatment alcohol drinking predict smoking relapse at 3-, 6-, and 12-months after smoking cessation. In males, higher scores on hazardous pretreatment alcohol drinking predict relapse at 6 and at 12 months. In females, higher scores on hazardous pretreatment alcohol drinking predict tobacco relapse at 3 months. Hazardous pretreatment alcohol drinking predicts relapse at all intervals after smoking cessation (3-, 6-, and 12-months follow-up). However, the influence of hazardous pretreatment alcohol drinking on smoking relapse differs as a function of gender, as it is a short-term predictor in women (3 months) and a long-term predictor in men (6 and 12 months). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vitamin A and Vitamin B-12 Concentrations in Relation to Mortality and Morbidity among Children Born to HIV-Infected Women

PubMed Central

Bosch, Ronald J.; Hunter, David J.; Manji, Karim; Msamanga, Gernard I.; Fawzi, Wafaie W.

2010-01-01

Vitamin A supplementation starting at 6 months of age is an important child survival intervention; however, not much is known about the association between vitamin A status before 6 months and mortality among children born to HIV-infected women. Plasma concentrations of vitamins A and B-12 were available at 6 weeks of age (n = 576 and 529, respectively) for children born to HIV-infected women and they were followed up for morbidity and survival status until 24 months after birth. Children in the highest quartile of vitamin A had a 49% lower risk of death by 24 months of age compared to the lowest quartile (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.29–0.90; P-value for trend = 0.01). Higher vitamin A levels were protective in the sub-groups of HIV-infected and un-infected children but this was statistically significant only in the HIV-uninfected subgroup. Higher vitamin A concentrations in plasma are protective against mortality in children born to HIV-infected women. PMID:19502599

Prognostic capacity of a clinically indicated exercise test for cardiovascular mortality is enhanced by combined analysis of exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans.

PubMed

Minkkinen, Mikko; Nieminen, Tuomo; Verrier, Richard L; Leino, Johanna; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viik, Jari; Lehtinen, Rami; Nikus, Kjell; Kööbi, Tiit; Turjanmaa, Väinö; Kähönen, Mika

2015-09-01

Exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans are independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. We tested whether these parameters contain supplementary prognostic information. A total of 3609 consecutive patients (2157 men) referred for a routine, clinically indicated bicycle exercise test were enrolled in the Finnish Cardiovascular Study (FINCAVAS). Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents, heart rate recovery as the decrease in heart rate from maximum to one minute post-exercise, and T-wave alternans by time-domain Modified Moving Average method. During 57-month median follow-up (interquartile range 35-78 months), 96 patients died of cardiovascular causes (primary endpoint) and 233 from any cause. All three parameters were independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality when analysed as continuous variables. Adding metabolic equivalents (p < 0.001), heart rate recovery (p = 0.002) or T-wave alternans (p = 0.01) to the linear model improved its predictive power for cardiovascular mortality. The combination of low exercise capacity (<6 metabolic equivalents), reduced heart rate recovery (≤12 beats/min) and elevated T-wave alternans (≥60 μV) yielded the highest hazard ratio for cardiovascular mortality of 16.5 (95% confidence interval 4.0-67.7, p < 0.001). Harrell's C index was 0.719 (confidence interval 0.665-0.772) for cardiovascular mortality with previously defined cutpoints (<8 units for metabolic equivalents, ≤18 beats/min for heart rate recovery and ≥60 μV for T-wave alternans). The prognostic capacity of the clinical exercise test is enhanced by combined analysis of exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Associations of postoperative mortality with the time of day, week and year.

PubMed

Kork, F; Spies, C; Conrad, T; Weiss, B; Roenneberg, T; Wernecke, K-D; Balzer, F

2018-06-01

Studies that have investigated circadian, weekday and seasonal variation in postoperative mortality have been relatively small or have been for scheduled surgery. We retrospectively tested a large mixed surgical cohort from a German tertiary care university hospital for the presence of cyclical variation in all-cause in-hospital mortality after operations performed between 2006 and 2013. We analysed mortality rates after 247,475 operations, adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, location, urgency and duration of the surgery, and intra-operative blood transfusions. The mortality odds ratio (95%CI) after operations started in the morning (08:00-11:00) were lowest, 0.73 (0.66-0.80), p < 0.001 and highest for operations started in the afternoon (13:00-17:00), 1.29 (1.18-1.40), p < 0.001. Mortality at the weekend was the same as during the week. There was no seasonal variation in mortality, p = 0.12. However, the interference of four-yearly and ten-monthly cycle amplitudes resulted in higher mortality odds ratio (95%CI) in winter 2008-2009, 1.41 (1.18-1.69), p < 0.001, and lower mortality in spring 2011 and 2012, 0.70 (0.56-0.85) and 0.67 (0.53-0.85), p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively. The ability to predict cyclical phenomena would facilitate the design of interventional studies, aimed at reducing mortality following surgery in the afternoon and when cycles interfere constructively. © 2018 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Multivariable model development and internal validation for prostate cancer specific survival and overall survival after whole-gland salvage Iodine-125 prostate brachytherapy.

PubMed

Peters, Max; van der Voort van Zyp, Jochem R N; Moerland, Marinus A; Hoekstra, Carel J; van de Pol, Sandrine; Westendorp, Hendrik; Maenhout, Metha; Kattevilder, Rob; Verkooijen, Helena M; van Rossum, Peter S N; Ahmed, Hashim U; Shah, Taimur T; Emberton, Mark; van Vulpen, Marco

2016-04-01

Whole-gland salvage Iodine-125-brachytherapy is a potentially curative treatment strategy for localised prostate cancer (PCa) recurrences after radiotherapy. Prognostic factors influencing PCa-specific and overall survival (PCaSS & OS) are not known. The objective of this study was to develop a multivariable, internally validated prognostic model for survival after whole-gland salvage I-125-brachytherapy. Whole-gland salvage I-125-brachytherapy patients treated in the Netherlands from 1993-2010 were included. Eligible patients had a transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy-confirmed localised recurrence after biochemical failure (clinical judgement, ASTRO or Phoenix-definition). Recurrences were assessed clinically and with CT and/or MRI. Metastases were excluded using CT/MRI and technetium-99m scintigraphy. Multivariable Cox-regression was used to assess the predictive value of clinical characteristics in relation to PCa-specific and overall mortality. PCa-specific mortality was defined as patients dying with distant metastases present. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation (20 imputed sets). Internal validation was performed and the C-statistic calculated. Calibration plots were created to visually assess the goodness-of-fit of the final model. Optimism-corrected survival proportions were calculated. All analyses were performed according to the TRIPOD statement. Median total follow-up was 78months (range 5-139). A total of 62 patients were treated, of which 28 (45%) died from PCa after mean (±SD) 82 (±36) months. Overall, 36 patients (58%) patients died after mean 84 (±40) months. PSA doubling time (PSADT) remained a predictive factor for both types of mortality (PCa-specific and overall): corrected hazard ratio's (HR's) 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.98, p=0.02) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90-0.99, p=0.01), respectively (C-statistics 0.71 and 0.69, respectively). Calibration was accurate up to 96month follow-up. Over 80% of patients can survive 8years if PSADT>24months (PCaSS) and >33months (OS). Only approximately 50% survival is achieved with a PSADT of 12months. A PSADT of respectively >24months and >33months can result in >80% probability of PCa- specific and overall survival 8years after whole-gland salvage I-125-brachytherapy. Survival should be weighed against toxicity from a salvage procedure. Larger series and external validation are necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elevated plasma levels of PAI-1 predict cardiovascular events and cardiovascular mortality in prevalent peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Arikan, Hakki; Koc, Mehmet; Tuglular, Serhan; Ozener, Cetin; Akoglu, Emel

2009-01-01

Elevated plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) levels are associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) risk in the general population. It has been shown that peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients have increased plasma levels of PAI-1. The aim of this study was to investigate whether PAI-1 independently predicted CV outcome in PD patients. Seventy-two PD patients (53% females, mean age 49.9 +/- 16.1 years) were studied. Twelve patients who underwent kidney transplantation and 14 patients who transferred to hemodialysis during follow-up were excluded from the analysis. The remaining 46 patients (54% female, mean age 54 +/- 16 years, dialytic age 42 +/- 30 months) were followed a mean time of 45.4 +/- 19.4 months (range 8-71 months). Baseline PAI-1, clinical, and laboratory parameters were assessed in all patients. Survival analyses were made with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis, with all-cause mortality and CV mortality and CV events (CVEs) as clinical end points. During the follow-up, 29 patients died (17 from CV causes), and 28 fatal and non-fatal CVEs were recorded. The patients were divided according to plasma PAI-1 levels (i.e., 41 ng/mL). The significant independent predictors of all-cause of mortality were age (60 years; p = 0.018), CRP (5 mg/L; p = 0.015), and serum albumin (<3.5 g/L; p = 0.011). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that plasma PAI-1 41 ng/mL was independently predictive of higher CV mortality (p = 0.021) and CVEs (p = 0.001). The only other independent predictor of CV mortality was only CRP (5 mg/L; p = 0.008). Plasma levels of PAI-1 41 ng/mL is a significant predictor of CV mortality and CVEs in PD patients.

Treatment-resistant and insufficiently treated depression and all-cause mortality following myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Scherrer, Jeffrey F; Chrusciel, Timothy; Garfield, Lauren D; Freedland, Kenneth E; Carney, Robert M; Hauptman, Paul J; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Owen, Richard; Lustman, Patrick J

2012-02-01

Depression is a known risk factor for mortality after an acute myocardial infarction. Patients with treatment-responsive depression may have a better prognosis than those with treatment-resistant depression. We sought to determine whether mortality following acute myocardial infarction was associated with treatment-resistant depression. Follow-up began after myocardial infarction and continued until death or censorship. Depression was counted as present if diagnosed any time during the study period. Treatment for depression was defined as receipt of 12 or more weeks of continuous antidepressant therapy at a therapeutic dose during follow-up. Treatment-resistant depression was defined as use of two or more antidepressants plus augmentation therapy, receipt of electroconvulsive therapy or use of monoamine oxidase inhibitors. Mean duration of follow-up was 39 months. During follow-up of 4037 patients with major depressive disorder who had had a myocardial infarction, 6.9% of those with insufficiently treated depression, 2.4% of those with treated depression and 5.0% of those with treatment-resistant depression died. A multivariable survival model that adjusted for sociodemographics, anxiety disorders, beta-blocker use, mortality risk factors and health service utilisation indicated that compared with treated patients, insufficiently treated patients were 3.04 (95% CI 2.12-4.35) times more likely and patients with treatment-resistant depression were 1.71 (95% CI 1.05-2.79) times more likely to die. All-cause mortality following an acute myocardial infarction is greatest in patients with depression who are insufficiently treated and is a risk in patients with treatment-resistant depression. However, the risk of mortality associated with treatment-resistant depression is partly explained by comorbid disorders. Further studies are warranted to determine whether changes in depression independently predict all-cause mortality.

Model-observational bridging study on the effectiveness of ezetimibe on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in France: A population-based study.

PubMed

Ferrières, Jean; Dallongeville, Jean; Rossignol, Michel; Bénichou, Jacques; Caro, J Jaime; Getsios, Denis; Hernandez, Luis; Abenhaim, Lucien; Grimaldi-Bensouda, Lamiae

To evaluate the real-life impact of ezetimibe on cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality in France. To estimate the number of non-fatal and fatal CV events that could be prevented and corresponding number of patients needed to treat (NNT) with ezetimibe to prevent one CV event over 5 years. Non-interventional 48-month follow-up cohort conducted in hypercholesterolemic patients starting on ezetimibe <3 months at study entry, either as monotherapy or combined with statins. Prediction modeling using discrete event simulation with calibrated Framingham CV risk equations was applied to data from pivotal clinical trials on ezetimibe and real-life data derived from the cohort. A total of 3215 patients in the cohort accumulated 9314 person-years of follow-up for an average of 2.9 years. Mean age was 61.5 (standard deviation [SD] = 10.7), 54.6% were males, and 27.0% had a history of CV disease. Baseline LDL-cholesterol averaged 4.1 mmol/L (159 mg/dL; SD = 1.0) and HDL-C 1.6 mmol/L (62 mg/dL; SD = 0.5). LDL-C decreased in the first 12 months in ezetimibe-LLT (lipid-lowering therapy) initiators, switchers (monotherapy), and combination therapy with a statin by respectively 21.3%, 6.4%, and 29.1%. The corresponding predicted rate reductions of CV events (non-fatal and fatal) compared to no treatment or to a statin (combination therapy) were respectively 8, 2, and 12 per 1000 patients treated over 5 years, with a global NNT of 143 patients over 5 years. These results, accounting for observed CV event rates, risk factors evolution over time and adherence to treatment in real life, were consistent with those from clinical trials. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of comorbidities on stroke rehabilitation outcomes: does the method matter?

PubMed

Berlowitz, Dan R; Hoenig, Helen; Cowper, Diane C; Duncan, Pamela W; Vogel, W Bruce

2008-10-01

To examine the impact of comorbidities in predicting stroke rehabilitation outcomes and to examine differences among 3 commonly used comorbidity measures--the Charlson Index, adjusted clinical groups (ACGs), and diagnosis cost groups (DCGs)--in how well they predict these outcomes. Inception cohort of patients followed for 6 months. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. A total of 2402 patients beginning stroke rehabilitation at a VA facility in 2001 and included in the Integrated Stroke Outcomes Database. Not applicable. Three outcomes were evaluated: 6-month mortality, 6-month rehospitalization, and change in FIM score. During 6 months of follow-up, 27.6% of patients were rehospitalized and 8.6% died. The mean FIM score increased an average of 20 points during rehabilitation. Addition of comorbidities to the age and sex models improved their performance in predicting these outcomes based on changes in c statistics for logistic and R(2) values for linear regression models. While ACG and DCG models performed similarly, the best models, based on DCGs, had a c statistic of .74 for 6-month mortality and .63 for 6-month rehospitalization, and an R(2) of .111 for change in FIM score. Comorbidities are important predictors of stroke rehabilitation outcomes. How they are classified has important implications for models that may be used in assessing quality of care.

Is early measles vaccination better than later measles vaccination?

PubMed

Aaby, Peter; Martins, Cesário L; Ravn, Henrik; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Whittle, Hilton C; Benn, Christine S

2015-01-01

WHO recommends delaying measles vaccination (MV) until maternal antibody has waned. However, early MV may improve child survival by reducing mortality from conditions other than measles infection. We tested whether early MV improves child survival compared with later MV. We found 43 studies comparing measles-vaccinated and measles-unvaccinated children; however, only 16 studies had specific information that MV had been provided at 4-13 months of age, many before 9 months of age. In the 10 best studies (4 randomized trials and 6 observational studies) control children did not receive MV during follow-up. In eight of these studies the vaccine efficacy against death (VED) was 60% or more. In four studies with information on MV provided both before and after 12 months of age, the all-cause mortality reduction was significantly larger for children vaccinated in infancy (VED=74%; 95% CI 51-86%) than for children vaccinated after 12 months of age (VED=29%; CI 8-46%). Prevention of measles explained little of the reduction in mortality. In five studies with information on measles infection, VED was 67% (51-78%) and when measles deaths were excluded, VED was only reduced to 65% (47-77%). One natural experiment compared MV at 4-8 months versus MV at 9-11 months of age and found significantly lower all-cause mortality with early vaccination, the difference being 39% (8-60%). Child mortality may be reduced if MV is given earlier than currently recommended by international organizations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Validity of the Test of Infant Motor Performance for prediction of 6-, 9- and 12-month scores on the Alberta Infant Motor Scale.

PubMed

Campbell, Suzann K; Kolobe, Thubi H A; Wright, Benjamin D; Linacre, John Michael

2002-04-01

The Test of Infant Motor Performance (TIMP) is a test of functional movement in infants from 32 weeks' post-conceptional age to 4 months postterm. The purpose of this study was to assess in 96 infants (44 females, 52 males) with varying risk, the relation between measures on the TIMP at 7, 30, 60, and 90 days after term age and percentile ranks (PR) on the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS). Correlation between scores on the TIMP and the AIMS was highest for TIMP tests at 90 days and AIMS testing at 6 months (r=0.67, p=0.0001), but all comparisons were statistically significant except those between the TIMP at 7 days and AIMS PR at 9 months. In a multiple regression analysis combining a perinatal risk score and 7-day TIMP measures to predict 12-month AIMS PR, risk, but not TIMP, predicted outcome (21% of variance explained). At older ages TIMP measures made increasing contributions to prediction of 12-month AIMS PR (30% of variance explained by 90-day TIMP). The best TIMP score to maximize specificity and correctly identify 84% of the infants above versus below the 10th PR at 6 months was a cut-off point of 1 SD below the mean. The same cut-off point correctly identified 88% of the infants at 12 months. A cut-off of -0.5 SD, however, maximized sensitivity at 92%. A negative test result, i.e. score above -0.5 SD at 3 months, carried only a 2% probability of a poor 12-month outcome. We conclude that TIMP scores significantly predict AIMS PR 6 to 12 months later, but the TIMP at 3 months of age has the greatest degree of validity for predicting motor performance on the AIMS at 12 months and can be used clinically to identify infants likely to benefit from intervention.

Can body mass index predict percent body fat and changes in percent body fat with weight loss in bariatric surgery patients?

PubMed

Carey, Daniel G; Raymond, Robert L

2008-07-01

The primary objective of this study was to assess the validity of body mass index (BMI) in predicting percent body fat and changes in percent body fat with weight loss in bariatric surgery patients. Twenty-two bariatric patients (17 female, five male) began the study designed to include 12 months of testing, including data collection within 1 week presurgery and 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year postsurgery. Five female subjects were lost to the study between 6 months and 12 months postsurgery, resulting in 17 subjects (12 female, five male) completing the 12 months of testing. Variables measured in the study included height, weight, percent fat (% fat) by hydrostatic weighing, lean mass, fat mass, and basal metabolic rate. Regression analyses predicting % fat from BMI yielded the following results: presurgery r = 0.173, p = 0.479, standard error of estimate (SEE) = 3.86; 1 month r = 0.468, p = 0.043, SEE = 4.70; 3 months r = 0.553, p = 0.014, SEE = 6.2; 6 months r = 0.611, p = 0.005, SEE = 5.88; 12 months r = 0.596, p = 0.007, SEE = 7.13. Regression analyses predicting change in % fat from change in BMI produced the following results: presurgery to 1 month r = -0.134, p = 0.583, SEE = 2.44%; 1-3 months r = 0.265, p = 0.272, SEE = 2.36%; 3-6 months r = 0.206, p = 0.398, SEE = 3.75%; 6-12 months r = 0.784, p = 0.000, SEE = 3.20. Although some analyses resulted in significant correlation coefficients (p < 0.05), the relatively large SEE values would preclude the use of BMI in predicting % fat or change in % fat with weight loss in bariatric surgery patients.

Prognostic value of efficiently correcting nocturnal desaturations after one month of non-invasive ventilation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a retrospective monocentre observational cohort study.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Bermejo, Jésus; Morelot-Panzini, Capucine; Arnol, Nathalie; Meininger, Vincent; Kraoua, Salah; Salachas, François; Similowski, Thomas

2013-09-01

Abstract NIV adherence ('quantity' of ventilation) has a prognostic impact in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We hypothesized that NIV effectiveness ('quality') could also have a similar impact. NIV effectiveness was evaluated in 82 patients within the first month (M1) and every three months (symptoms, arterial blood bases, and nocturnal pulsed oxygen saturation - SpO2). Kaplan-Meier survival and risk factors for mortality one year after NIV initiation were evaluated. Forty patients were considered 'correctly ventilated' at M1 (Group 1, less than 5% of nocturnal oximetry time with an SpO2<90% - TS90) while 42 were not (Group 2). Both groups were comparable in terms of respiratory and neurological baseline characteristics. Survival was better in Group 1 (75% survival at 12 months) than in Group 2 (43% survival at 12 months, p = 0.002). In 12 Group 2 patients corrective measures were efficient in correcting TS90 at six months. In this subgroup, one-year mortality was not different from that in Group 1. Multivariate analysis identified independent mortality risk factors expectedly including bulbar involvement (HR = 4.31 (1.73 - 10.76), p = 0.002), 'rapid respiratory decline' (HR = 3.55 (1.29 - 9.75), p = 0.014) and vital capacity (HR = 0.97 (0.95 - 0.99), p = 0.010), but also inadequate ventilation in the first month (HR = 2.32 (1.09 - 4.94), p = 0.029). In conclusion, in ALS patients NIV effectiveness to correct nocturnal desaturations is an independent prognostic factor.

Clopidogrel discontinuation after acute coronary syndromes: frequency, predictors and associations with death and myocardial infarction--a hospital registry-primary care linked cohort (MINAP-GPRD).

PubMed

Boggon, Rachael; van Staa, Tjeerd P; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry; Ray, Kausik K; Begg, Alan; Emmas, Cathy; Fox, Keith A A

2011-10-01

Adherence to evidence-based treatments and its consequences after acute myocardial infarction (MI) are poorly defined. We examined the extent to which clopidogrel treatment initiated in hospital is continued in primary care; the factors predictive of clopidogrel discontinuation and the hazard of death or recurrent MI. We linked the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project registry and the General Practice Research Database to examine adherence to clopidogrel in primary care among patients discharged from hospital after MI (2003-2009). Hospital Episode Statistics and national mortality data were linked, documenting all-cause mortality and non-fatal MI. Of the 7543 linked patients, 4650 were prescribed clopidogrel in primary care within 3 months of discharge. The adjusted odds of still being prescribed clopidogrel at 12 months were similar following non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) 53% (95% CI, 51-55) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) 54% (95% CI, 52-56), but contrast with statins: NSTEMI 84% (95% CI, 82-85) and STEMI 89% (95% CI, 87-90). Discontinuation within 12 months was more frequent in older patients [>80 vs. 40-49 years, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.50 (95% CI, 1.15-1.94)] and with bleeding events [HR 1.34 (95% CI, 1.03-1.73)]. 18.15 patients per 100 person-years (95% CI, 16.83-19.58) died or experienced non-fatal MI in the first year following discharge. In patients who discontinued clopidogrel within 12 months, the adjusted HR for death or non-fatal MI was 1.45 (95% CI, 1.22-1.73) compared with untreated patients, and 2.62 (95% CI, 2.17-3.17) compared with patients persisting with clopidogrel treatment. This is the first study to use linked registries to determine persistence of clopidogrel treatment after MI in primary care. It demonstrates that discontinuation is common and associated with adverse outcomes.

Short- and mid-term outcomes of sleeve gastrectomy for morbid obesity: the experience of the Spanish National Registry.

PubMed

Sánchez-Santos, Raquel; Masdevall, Carlos; Baltasar, Aniceto; Martínez-Blázquez, Candido; García Ruiz de Gordejuela, Amador; Ponsi, Enric; Sánchez-Pernaute, Andres; Vesperinas, Gregorio; Del Castillo, Daniel; Bombuy, Ernest; Durán-Escribano, Carlos; Ortega, Luis; Ruiz de Adana, Juan Carlos; Baltar, Javier; Maruri, Ignacio; García-Blázquez, Emilio; Torres, Antonio

2009-09-01

Reports on laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) communicate very good short-term results on very high-risk morbid obese patients. However, mid- and long-term results are still unknown. A National Registry has been created in Spain to achieve information on the outcomes of this bariatric procedure. Data were obtained from 17 centers and collected in a database. Technical issues, preoperative comorbid conditions, hospital stay, early and late complications, and short- and mid-term weight loss were analyzed. Five hundred forty patients were included; 76% were women. Mean BMI was 48.1 +/- 10. Mean age was 44.1 +/- 11.8. Morbidity rate was 5.2% and mortality rate 0.36%. Complications presented more frequently in superobese patients (OR, 2.8 (1.18-6.65)), male (OR, 2.98 (1.26-7.0)), and patients >55 years old (OR, 2.8 (1.14-6.8)). Staple-line reinforcement was related to a lower complication rate (3.7 vs 8.8%; p = 0.039). Mean hospital stay was 4.8 +/- 8.2 days. Mean follow-up was 16.5 +/- 10.6 months (1-73). Mean percent excess BMI loss (EBL) at 3 months was 38.8 +/- 22, 55.6 +/- 8 at 6 months, 68.1 +/- 28 at 12 months, and 72.4 +/- 31 at 24 months. %EBL was superior in patients with lower initial BMI and lower age. Bougie caliber was an inverse predictive factor of %EBL at 12 and 24 months (RR, 23.3 (11.4-35.2)). DM is remitted in 81% of the patients and HTA improved in 63.2% of them. A second-stage surgery was performed in 18 patients (3.2%). LSG provides good short- and mid-term results with a low morbid-mortality rate. Better results are obtained in younger patients with lowest BMI. Staple-line reinforcement and a thinner bougie are recommended to improve outcome.

Modified Maze Procedure for Atrial Fibrillation as an Adjunct to Elective Cardiac Surgery: Predictors of Mid-Term Recurrence and Echocardiographic Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Alamanni, Francesco; Veglia, Fabrizio; Galli, Claudia; Parolari, Alessandro; Zanobini, Marco

2015-01-01

The radiofrequency maze procedure achieves sinus rhythm in 45%–95% of patients treated for atrial fibrillation. This retrospective study evaluates mid-term results of the radiofrequency maze—performed concomitant to elective cardiac surgery—to determine sinus-rhythm predictive factors, and describes the evolution of patients' echocardiographic variables. From 2003 through 2011, 247 patients (mean age, 64 ± 9.5 yr) with structural heart disease (79.3% mitral disease) and atrial fibrillation underwent a concomitant radiofrequency modified maze procedure. Patients were monitored by 24-hour Holter at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months, then annually. Eighty-four mitral-valve patients underwent regular echocardiographic follow-up. Univariate and multivariate analysis for risk factors of maze failure were identified. The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.2%. During a median follow-up of 39.4 months, the late mortality rate was 3.6%, and pacemaker insertion was necessary in 26 patients (9.4%). Sinus rhythm was present in 63% of patients at the latest follow-up. Predictive factors for atrial fibrillation recurrence were arrhythmia duration (hazard ratio [HR]=1.296, P=0.045) and atrial fibrillation at hospital discharge (HR=2.03, P=0.019). The monopolar device favored maze success (HR=0.191, P <0.0001). Left atrial area and indexed left ventricular end-diastolic volume showed significant decrease both in sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation patients. Early sinus rhythm conversion was associated with improved left ventricular ejection fraction. Concomitant radiofrequency maze procedure provided remarkable outcomes. Shorter preoperative atrial fibrillation duration, monopolar device use, and prompt treatment of arrhythmia recurrences increase the midterm success rate. Early sinus rhythm restoration seems to result in better left ventricular ejection fraction recovery. PMID:26413016

Distress among women receiving uninformative BRCA1/2 results: 12-month outcomes.

PubMed

O'Neill, Suzanne C; Rini, Christine; Goldsmith, Rachel E; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis; Cohen, Lawrence H; Schwartz, Marc D

2009-10-01

Few data are available regarding the long-term psychological impact of uninformative BRCA1/2 test results. This study examines change in distress from pretesting to 12-months post-disclosure, with medical, family history, and psychological variables, such as pretesting perceived risk of carrying a deleterious mutation prior to testing and primary and secondary appraisals, as predictors. Two hundred and nine women with uninformative BRCA1/2 test results completed questionnaires at pretesting and 1-, 6-, and 12-month post-disclosure, including measures of anxiety and depression, cancer-specific and genetic testing distress. We used a mixed models approach to predict change in post-disclosure distress. Distress declined from pretesting to 1-month post-disclosure, but remained stable thereafter. Primary appraisals predicted all types of distress at 1-month post-disclosure. Primary and secondary appraisals predicted genetic testing distress at 1-month as well as change over time. Receiving a variant of uncertain clinical significance and entering testing with a high expectation for carrying a deleterious mutation predicted genetic testing distress that persisted through the year after testing. As a whole, women receiving uninformative BRCA1/2 test results are a resilient group. For some women, distress experienced in the month after testing does not dissipate. Variables, such as heightened pretesting perceived risk and cognitive appraisals, predict greater likelihood for sustained distress in this group and could be amenable to intervention.

Non-specific effects of diphtheria tetanus pertussis vaccination on child mortality in Cebu, The Philippines.

PubMed

Chan, Grace J; Moulton, Lawrence H; Becker, Stan; Muñoz, Alvaro; Black, Robert E

2007-10-01

To determine the non-specific effects of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP) vaccination and sex on mortality before 30 months of age among those who received Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccine in a high mortality area. This analysis used a longitudinal study of child survival monitoring the use of primary care services, morbidity and mortality in Metro Cebu, The Philippines. Participants included 14 537 children under 30 months of age who received a BCG vaccination from July 1988 to January 1991. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Mortality before 30 months of age was 57% lower among BCG-vaccinated children who received DTP vaccination than BCG-vaccinated children who did not receive DTP vaccination {hazard ratio (HR) for vaccinated vs unvaccinated 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21-0.88]}. Females had lower mortality rates [HR = 0.19 (0.04-0.86), P = 0.03] than males among DTP-unvaccinated children. The protective effect of DTP vaccination was more pronounced in males [HR 0.32 (0.14-0.73)] than in females [HR 0.86 (0.18-4.23)]. DTP vaccination increased (interaction term P = 0.08) the female-to-male mortality ratio to 0.76 (0.52-1.12). Among BCG-vaccinated children under 30 months of age, DTP vaccination is associated with improved survival. The increased female-male mortality ratio is associated with reduced mortality among males following DTP vaccination rather than increased mortality among female children.

Depression and Survival in a 17-Year Longitudinal Study of People With HIV: Moderating Effects of Race and Education.

PubMed

Ironson, Gail; Fitch, Calvin; Stuetzle, Rick

2017-09-01

The prevalence of clinically significant depressive symptoms is three times higher in people living with HIV than in the general population. Although studies have shown that depression predicts worse course with HIV, few have investigated its relationship with mortality, and none have had a 17-year follow-up period and been conducted entirely during the time since the advent of protease inhibitors. We followed a diverse sample of HIV-positive people (N = 177) in the mid-range of illness for a study on stress and coping. Participants were assessed every 6 months (for 12 years) via blood draw, questionnaires, and interview. Depression was measured using the Beck Depression Inventory. The study began in March 1997 and mortality was assessed in April 2014. In the primary analysis depression, analyzed as a continuous variable, significantly predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.038, 95% confidence interval = 1.008-1.068). With Beck Depression Inventory scores dichotomized, the hazard ratio was 2.044 (95% confidence interval = 1.176-3.550). Furthermore, this result was moderated by race and educational attainment such that depression only predicted worse survival for non-African Americans and those with a college education or higher. Depression is associated with worse long-term survival in people with HIV during 17 years of follow-up. Interventions targeting depression may improve well-being and potentially survival in individuals with HIV. However, since depression did not predict survival in African Americans or those with low education, more research is needed to identify risk factors for long term outcomes in these groups.

High blood glucose independent of pre-existing diabetic status predicts mortality in patients initiating peritoneal dialysis therapy.

PubMed

Chung, Sung Hee; Han, Dong Cheol; Noh, Hyunjin; Jeon, Jin Seok; Kwon, Soon Hyo; Lindholm, Bengt; Lee, Hi Bahl

2015-06-01

Poor glycemic control associates with increased mortality in diabetic (DM) dialysis patients, but it is less well established whether high blood glucose (BG) independent of pre-existing diabetic status associates with mortality in dialysis patients. We assessed factors affecting BG at the start of peritoneal dialysis (PD) and its mortality-predictive impact in Korean PD patients. In 174 PD patients (55 % males, 56 % DM), BG, nutritional status, comorbidity (CMD), and residual renal function (RRF) were assessed in conjunction with dialysis initiation. Determinants of BG and its association with mortality after a mean follow-up period of 30 ± 24 months were analyzed. On Cox proportional hazards analysis comprising all patients, old age, high CMD score, presence of protein energy wasting, and low serum albumin (Salb) concentration were independent predictors of mortality but not a high-BG level, while in patients without pre-existing diabetic status, high BG, together with old age and high CMD score, was an independent predictor of mortality. After adjustment for age, CMD score, and Salb, the risk ratio for mortality increased by 12 % per 1 mg/dL increase in BG in the non-DM patients. Patient survival in patients without pre-existing diabetic status with high BG did not differ from DM patients, but the survival of patients with high BG was significantly lower than in patients with low BG. In patients without pre-existing diabetic status, in multiple regression analysis, high BG at initiation of PD associated with high age, high body mass index, and low RRF. High blood glucose at initiation of PD associated with an increased mortality risk in PD patients without pre-existing diabetic status suggesting that blood glucose monitoring and surveillance of factors contributing to poor glycemic control are warranted in patients initiating PD therapy.

Violent Reinjury and Mortality Among Youth Seeking Emergency Department Care for Assault-Related Injury A 2-Year Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Rebecca M.; Carter, Patrick M.; Ranney, Megan; Zimmerman, Marc A.; Blow, Fred C.; Booth, Brenda M.; Goldstick, Jason; Walton, Maureen A.

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Violence is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among youth, with more than 700 000 emergency department (ED) visits annually for assault-related injuries. The risk for violent reinjury among high-risk, assault-injured youth is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE To compare recidivism for violent injury and mortality outcomes among drug-using, assault-injured youth (AI group) and drug-using, non–assault-injured control participants (non-AI group) presenting to an urban ED for care. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Participants were enrolled in a prospective cohort study from December 2, 2009, through September 30, 2011, at an urban level I ED and followed up for 24 months. We administered validated measures of violence and substance use and mental health diagnostic interviews and reviewed medical records at baseline and at each point of follow-up (6, 12, 18, and 24 months). EXPOSURE Follow-up over 24 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Use of ED services for assault or mortality measured from medical record abstraction supplemented with self-report. RESULTS We followed 349 AI and 250 non-AI youth for 24 months. Youth in the AI group had almost twice the risk for a violent injury requiring ED care within 2 years compared with the non-AI group (36.7% vs 22.4%; relative risk [RR], 1.65 [95% CI, 1.25-2.14]; P < .001). Two-year mortality was 0.8%. Poisson regression modeling identified female sex (RR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.02-1.65]), assault-related injury (RR, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.19-2.04), diagnosis of a drug use disorder (RR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.01-1.65]), and posttraumatic stress disorder (RR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.09-1.97]) at the index visit as predictive of ED recidivism or death within 24 months. Parametric survival models demonstrated that assault-related injury (P < .001), diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (P = .008), and diagnosis of a drug use disorder (P = .03) significantly shortened the expected waiting time until the first ED return visit for violence or death. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Violent injury is a reoccurring disease, with one-third of our AI group experiencing another violent injury requiring ED care within 2 years of the index visit, almost twice the rate of a non-AI comparison group. Secondary violence prevention measures addressing substance use and mental health needs are needed to decrease subsequent morbidity and mortality due to violence in the first 6 months after an assault injury. PMID:25365147

External validation of the CAPRA-S score to predict biochemical recurrence, metastasis and mortality after radical prostatectomy in a European cohort.

PubMed

Tilki, Derya; Mandel, Philipp; Schlomm, Thorsten; Chun, Felix K-H; Tennstedt, Pierre; Pehrke, Dirk; Haese, Alexander; Huland, Hartwig; Graefen, Markus; Salomon, Georg

2015-06-01

The CAPRA-S score predicts prostate cancer recurrence based on pathological information from radical prostatectomy. To our knowledge CAPRA-S has never been externally validated in a European cohort. We independently validated CAPRA-S in a single institution European database. The study cohort comprised 14,532 patients treated with radical prostatectomy between January 1992 and August 2012. Prediction of biochemical recurrence, metastasis and cancer specific mortality by CAPRA-S was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and the c-index. CAPRA-S performance to predict biochemical recurrence was evaluated by calibration plot and decision curve analysis. Median followup was 50.8 months (IQR 25.0-96.0). Biochemical recurrence developed in 20.3% of men at a median of 21.2 months (IQR 7.7-44.9). When stratifying patients by CAPRA-S risk group, estimated 5-year biochemical recurrence-free survival was 91.4%, 70.4% and 29.3% in the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively. The CAPRA-S c-index to predict biochemical recurrence, metastasis and cancer specific mortality was 0.80, 0.85 and 0.88, respectively. Metastasis developed in 417 men and 196 men died of prostate cancer. The CAPRA-S score was accurate when applied in a European study cohort. It predicted biochemical recurrence, metastasis and cancer specific mortality after radical prostatectomy with a c-index of greater than 0.80. The score can be valuable in regard to decision making for adjuvant therapy. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predictive value of daily living score in acute respiratory failure of COPD patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation pilot study.

PubMed

Langlet, Ketty; Van Der Linden, Thierry; Launois, Claire; Fourdin, Caroline; Cabaret, Philippe; Kerkeni, Nadia; Barbe, Coralie; Lebargy, François; Deslée, Gaetan

2012-10-18

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is imperative in many forms of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in COPD patients. Previous studies have shown the difficulty to identify parameters predicting the outcome of COPD patients treated by invasive MV. Our hypothesis was that a non specialized score as the activities daily living (ADL) score may help to predict the outcome of these patients. We studied the outcome of 25 COPD patients admitted to the intensive care unit for ARF requiring invasive MV. The patients were divided into those weaning success (group A n = 17, 68%) or failure (group B n = 8, 32%). We investigated the correlation between the ADL score and the outcome and mortality. The ADL score was higher in group A (5.1 ±1.1 vs 3.7 ± 0.7 in group B, p < 0.01). Weaning was achieved in 76.5% of the cases with an ADL score ≥ 4 and in 23.5% of the cases with an ADL score < 4 (p < 0.05). Pulmonary function test, arterial blood gases collected during period of clinical stability and at admission and nutritional status were similar in both groups. The mortality, at six months, was 36%. The ADL score was a significant predictor of 6-month mortality (80 with an ADL score <4, 20 with an ADL score ≥4, p < 0.01). Our pilot study demonstrates that the ADL score is predictive of weaning success and mortality at 6 months, suggesting that the assessment of daily activities should be an important component of ARF management in COPD patients.

Predicting the Onset of Anxiety Syndromes at 12 Months in Primary Care Attendees. The PredictA-Spain Study

PubMed Central

Moreno-Peral, Patricia; Luna, Juan de Dios; Marston, Louise; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Muñoz-Bravo, Carlos; Bellón, Juan Ángel

2014-01-01

Background There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Methods A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the risk algorithm. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety, panic and other non-specific anxiety syndromes as measured by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders, Patient Health Questionnaire (PRIME-MD-PHQ). We recruited 3,564 adult primary care attendees without anxiety syndromes from 174 family physicians and 32 health centers in 6 Spanish provinces. Results The cumulative 12-month incidence of anxiety syndromes was 12.2%. The predictA-Spain risk algorithm included the following predictors of anxiety syndromes: province; sex (female); younger age; taking medicines for anxiety, depression or stress; worse physical and mental quality of life (SF-12); dissatisfaction with paid and unpaid work; perception of financial strain; and the interactions sex*age, sex*perception of financial strain, and age*dissatisfaction with paid work. The C-index was 0.80 (95% confidence interval = 0.78–0.83) and the Hedges' g = 1.17 (95% confidence interval = 1.04–1.29). The Copas shrinkage factor was 0.98 and calibration plots showed an accurate goodness of fit. Conclusions The predictA-Spain risk algorithm is valid to predict anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Although external validation is required, the predictA-Spain is available for use as a predictive tool in the prevention of anxiety syndromes in primary care. PMID:25184313

Comparison of Nutritional Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Japanese Chronic Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hiroshi; Inoue, Keiko; Shimizu, Kazue; Hiraga, Keiko; Takahashi, Erika; Otaki, Kaori; Yoshikawa, Taeko; Furuta, Kumiko; Tokunaga, Chika; Sakakibara, Tomoyo; Ito, Yasuhiko

2017-05-01

Protein energy wasting (PEW) is consistently associated with poor prognosis in hemodialysis (HD) patients. We compared the predictability of PEW as diagnosed by The International Society of Renal Nutrition and Metabolism criteria (PEW ISRNM ) and geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) for all-cause mortality in Japanese HD patients. As cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) for PEW have not been established in PEW ISRNM for Asian populations, these were also investigated. The nutritional status from 409 HD patients was evaluated according to ISRNM and GNRI criteria. To compare the predictability of mortality, C-index, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement were evaluated. During follow-up (median, 52 months; range, 7 months), 70 patients (17.1%) presented PEW according to ISRNM and 131 patients (32.1%) according to GNRI; in addition, 101 patients (24.7%) died. PEW ISRNM and GNRI were identified as independent predictors of death. Addition of PEW ISRNM and GNRI to a predictive model based on established risk factors improved NRI and integrated discrimination improvement. However, no differences were found between models including PEW ISRNM and GNRI. When lowering the criterion level of BMI per 1 kg/m 2 sequentially, PEW ISRNM at BMI <20 kg/m 2 maximized the hazard ratio for mortality. The model including PEW ISRNM at BMI <20 kg/m 2 improved NRI compared with the model including GNRI. PEW ISRNM and GNRI represent independent predictors of mortality, with comparable predictability. The diagnostic criterion of BMI in the ISRNM for Japanese population might be better at <20 kg/m 2 than at <23 kg/m 2 . Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How long after a miscarriage should women wait before becoming pregnant again? Multivariate analysis of cohort data from Matlab, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

DaVanzo, Julie; Hale, Lauren; Rahman, Mizanur

2012-01-01

Objective To determine the optimum interpregnancy interval (IPI) following a miscarriage. Design Multivariate analysis of population-based, prospective data from a demographic surveillance system. Setting Pregnancies in Matlab, Bangladesh, between 1977 and 2008. Participants 9214 women with 10 453 pregnancies that ended in a miscarriage and were followed by another pregnancy outcome. Main outcome measures Outcome of pregnancy following the miscarriage was singleton live birth, stillbirth, miscarriage or induced abortion. For pregnancies that ended in live birth: early neonatal, late neonatal and postneonatal mortality. Results Compared with IPIs of 6–12 months, pregnancies that were conceived ≤3 months after a miscarriage were more likely to result in a live birth and less likely to result in a miscarriage (adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) 0.70, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.86) or induced abortion (0.50, 0.29 to 0.89). Induced abortions were significantly more likely following IPIs of 18–24 months (2.36, 1.48 to 3.76), 36–48 months (2.73, 1.50 to 4.94), and >48 months (3.32, 1.68 to 2.95), and miscarriages were more likely following IPIs of 12–17 months (1.25, 1.01 to 1.56) and >48 months (1.90, 1.40 to 2.58). No significant effects of IPI duration are seen on the risks of a stillbirth. However, IPIs≤3 months following a miscarriage are associated with significantly higher late neonatal mortality for the infant born at the end of the IPI (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.74, 1.06 to 2.84), and IPIs of 12–18 months are associated with a significantly lower unadjusted risk of postneonatal mortality (0.54, 0.30 to 0.96). Conclusions The shorter the IPI following a miscarriage, the more likely the subsequent pregnancy is to result in a live birth. However, very short IPIs may not be advisable following miscarriages in poor countries like Bangladesh because they are associated with a higher risk of mortality for the infants born after them. PMID:22907047

Statistical Prediction of Sea Ice Concentration over Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongho; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kim, Baek-Min

2017-04-01

In this study, a statistical method that predict sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic is developed. We first calculate the Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Functions (S-EOFs) of monthly Arctic SIC from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data, which contain the seasonal cycles (12 months long) of dominant SIC anomaly patterns. Then, the current SIC state index is determined by projecting observed SIC anomalies for latest 12 months to the S-EOFs. Assuming the current SIC anomalies follow the spatio-temporal evolution in the S-EOFs, we project the future (upto 12 months) SIC anomalies by multiplying the SI and the corresponding S-EOF and then taking summation. The predictive skill is assessed by hindcast experiments initialized at all the months for 1980-2010. When comparing predictive skill of SIC predicted by statistical model and NCEP CFS v2, the statistical model shows a higher skill in predicting sea ice concentration and extent.

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant with reduced-intensity conditioning for chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Sweden: does donor T-cell engraftment 3 months after transplant predict survival?

PubMed

Machaczka, Maciej; Johansson, Jan-Erik; Remberger, Mats; Hallböök, Helene; Malm, Claes; Lazarevic, Vladimir Lj; Wahlin, Anders; Omar, Hamdy; Juliusson, Gunnar; Kimby, Eva; Hägglund, Hans

2012-09-01

Thirty-eight adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) underwent reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) allogeneic stem cell transplant (allo-SCT) in Sweden between 1999 and 2007. The cumulative incidences of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) grades II-IV and chronic GVHD were 29% and 47%, respectively. Rates of non-relapse mortality, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 18%, 47% and 74% at 1 year, and 21%, 25% and 45% at 5 years, respectively. T-cell chimerism after transplant was measured in 31 out of 34 patients (91%) surviving beyond day +100. Seventeen patients achieved >90% donor T-cell engraftment at 3 months after allo-SCT and, compared with the 12 patients with ≤90% donor T-cell engraftment, they showed favorable PFS at 1 year (82% vs. 33%, p =0.002) and better long-term PFS and OS (p =0.002 and 0.046, respectively). Donor T-cell engraftment of >90% at 3 months after RIC allo-SCT for CLL seems to predict favorable short-term and long-term outcome.

Lung Injury Prediction Score Is Useful in Predicting Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and Mortality in Surgical Critical Care Patients

PubMed Central

Bauman, Zachary M.; Gassner, Marika Y.; Coughlin, Megan A.; Mahan, Meredith; Watras, Jill

2015-01-01

Background. Lung injury prediction score (LIPS) is valuable for early recognition of ventilated patients at high risk for developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). This study analyzes the value of LIPS in predicting ARDS and mortality among ventilated surgical patients. Methods. IRB approved, prospective observational study including all ventilated patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit at a single tertiary center over 6 months. ARDS was defined using the Berlin criteria. LIPS were calculated for all patients and analyzed. Logistic regression models evaluated the ability of LIPS to predict development of ARDS and mortality. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve demonstrated the optimal LIPS value to statistically predict development of ARDS. Results. 268 ventilated patients were observed; 141 developed ARDS and 127 did not. The average LIPS for patients who developed ARDS was 8.8 ± 2.8 versus 5.4 ± 2.8 for those who did not (p < 0.001). An ROC area under the curve of 0.79 demonstrates LIPS is statistically powerful for predicting ARDS development. Furthermore, for every 1-unit increase in LIPS, the odds of developing ARDS increase by 1.50 (p < 0.001) and odds of ICU mortality increase by 1.22 (p < 0.001). Conclusion. LIPS is reliable for predicting development of ARDS and predicting mortality in critically ill surgical patients. PMID:26301105

Algorithm for predicting death among older adults in the home care setting: study protocol for the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-life in the Community Tool (RESPECT)

PubMed Central

Manuel, Douglas G; Taljaard, Monica; Chalifoux, Mathieu; Bennett, Carol; Costa, Andrew P; Bronskill, Susan; Kobewka, Daniel; Tanuseputro, Peter

2016-01-01

Introduction Older adults living in the community often have multiple, chronic conditions and functional impairments. A challenge for healthcare providers working in the community is the lack of a predictive tool that can be applied to the broad spectrum of mortality risks observed and may be used to inform care planning. Objective To predict survival time for older adults in the home care setting. The final mortality risk algorithm will be implemented as a web-based calculator that can be used by older adults needing care and by their caregivers. Design Open cohort study using the Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC) data in Ontario, Canada, from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2013. Participants The derivation cohort will consist of ∼437 000 older adults who had an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2012. A split sample validation cohort will include ∼122 000 older adults with an RAI-HC assessment between 1 January and 31 December 2013. Main outcome measures Predicted survival from the time of an RAI-HC assessment. All deaths (n≈245 000) will be ascertained through linkage to a population-based registry that is maintained by the Ministry of Health in Ontario. Statistical analysis Proportional hazards regression will be estimated after assessment of assumptions. Predictors will include sociodemographic factors, social support, health conditions, functional status, cognition, symptoms of decline and prior healthcare use. Model performance will be evaluated for 6-month and 12-month predicted risks, including measures of calibration (eg, calibration plots) and discrimination (eg, c-statistics). The final algorithm will use combined development and validation data. Ethics and dissemination Research ethics approval has been granted by the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre Review Board. Findings will be disseminated through presentations at conferences and in peer-reviewed journals. Trial registration number NCT02779309, Pre-results. PMID:27909039

Serial evaluation of the MODS, SOFA and LOD scores to predict ICU mortality in mixed critically ill patients.

PubMed

Khwannimit, Bodin

2008-09-01

To perform a serial assessment and compare ability in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) score. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24-month period at a tertiary referral university hospital. The MODS, SOFA, and LOD scores were calculated on initial and repeated every 24 hrs. Two thousand fifty four patients were enrolled in the present study. The maximum and delta-scores of all the organ dysfunction scores correlated with ICU mortality. The maximum score of all models had better ability for predicting ICU mortality than initial or delta score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for maximum scores was 0.892 for the MODS, 0.907 for the SOFA, and 0.92for the LOD. No statistical difference existed between all maximum scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Serial assessment of organ dysfunction during the ICU stay is reliable with ICU mortality. The maximum scores is the best discrimination comparable with APACHE II score in predicting ICU mortality.

Risk Factors for Post-NICU Discharge Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

De Jesus, Lilia C.; Pappas, Athina; Shankaran, Seetha; Kendrick, Douglas; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Bell, Edward F.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Walsh, Michele C.

2012-01-01

Objective To evaluate maternal and neonatal risk factors associated with post-neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) discharge mortality among ELBW infants. Study design This is a retrospective analysis of extremely low birth weight (<1,000 g) and <27 weeks' gestational age infants born in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network sites from January 2000 to June 2007. Infants were tracked until death or 18–22 months corrected age. Infants who died between NICU discharge and the 18–22 month follow-up visit were classified as post-NICU discharge mortality. Association of maternal and infant risk factors with post-NICU discharge mortality was determined using logistic regression analysis. A prediction model with six significant predictors was developed and validated. Results 5,364 infants survived to NICU discharge. 557 (10%) infants were lost to follow-up, and 107 infants died following NICU discharge. Post-NICU discharge mortality rate was 22.3 per 1000 ELBW infants. In the prediction model, African-American race, unknown maternal health insurance, and hospital stay ≥120 days significantly increased risk, and maternal exposure to intra-partum antibiotics was associated with decreased risk of post-NICU discharge mortality. Conclusion We identified African-American race, unknown medical insurance and prolonged NICU stay as risk factors associated with post-NICU discharge mortality among ELBW infants. PMID:22325187

Patterns of injury, outcomes, and predictors of in-hospital and 1-year mortality in nonagenarian and centenarian trauma patients.

PubMed

Hwabejire, John O; Kaafarani, Haytham M A; Lee, Jarone; Yeh, Daniel D; Fagenholz, Peter; King, David R; de Moya, Marc A; Velmahos, George C

2014-10-01

With the dramatic growth in the very old population and their concomitant heightened exposure to traumatic injury, the trauma burden among this patient population is estimated to be exponentially increasing. To determine the clinical outcomes and predictors of in-hospital and 1-year mortality in nonagenarian and centenarian trauma patients (NCTPs). All patients 90 years or older admitted to a level 1 academic trauma center between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2010, with a primary diagnosis of trauma were included. Standard trauma registry data variables were supplemented by systematic medical record review. Cumulative mortality rates at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after discharge were investigated using the Social Security Death Index. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify the predictors of in-hospital and 1-year postdischarge cumulative mortalities. Length of hospital stay, in-hospital mortality, and cumulative mortalities at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after discharge. Four hundred seventy-four NCTPs were included; 71.7% were female, and a fall was the predominant mechanism of injury (96.4%). The mean patient age was 93 years, the mean Injury Severity Score was 12, and the mean number of comorbidities per patient was 4.4. The in-hospital mortality was 9.5% but cumulatively escalated at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after discharge to 18.5%, 26.4%, 31.3%, and 40.5%, respectively. Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were the Injury Severity Score (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.16; P = .01), mechanical ventilation (OR, 6.23; 95% CI, 1.42-27.27; P = .02), and cervical spine injury (OR, 4.37; 95% CI, 1.41-13.50; P = .01). Independent predictors of cumulative 1-year mortality were head injury (OR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.24-5.67; P = .03) and length of hospital stay (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.11; P = .005). Cumulative 1-year mortality in NCTPs with a head injury was 51.1% and increased to 73.2% if the Injury Severity Score was 25 or higher and to 78.7% if mechanical ventilation was required. Most NCTPs required rehabilitation; only 8.9% were discharged to home. Despite low in-hospital mortality, the cumulative mortality rate among NCTPs at 1 year after discharge is significant, particularly in the presence of head injury, spine injury, mechanical ventilation, high injury severity, or prolonged length of hospital stay. These considerations can help guide clinical decisions and family discussions.

Outcome scoring systems for short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients.

PubMed

Tu, Kun-Hua; Jenq, Chang-Chyi; Tsai, Ming-Hung; Hsu, Hsiang-Hao; Chang, Ming-Yang; Tian, Ya-Chung; Hung, Cheng-Chieh; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Yang, Chih-Wei; Chen, Yung-Chang

2011-11-01

Cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) have high mortality rates. This study evaluated specific predictors and scoring systems for hospital and 6-month mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. This investigation is a prospective clinical study performed in a 10-bed specialized hepatogastroenterology ICU in a tertiary care university hospital in Taiwan. Two hundred two consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU during a 2-year period were enrolled in this study. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables recorded on the first day of ICU admission and scoring systems applied were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis for predicting survival. The overall hospital mortality was 59.9%, and the 6-month mortality rate was 70.8%. The main causes of cirrhosis were hepatitis B (29%), hepatitis C (22%), and alcoholism (20%). The major cause of ICU admission was upper gastrointestinal bleeding (36%). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) score at the 48th hour of ICU admission and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) as well as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores on the first day of ICU admission were independent risk factors for hospital mortality. The SOFA score had the best discriminatory power (0.872 ± 0.036), whereas the AKIN had the best Youden index (0.57) and the highest correctness of prediction (79%). Cumulative survival rates at the 6-month follow-up after hospital discharge differed significantly (P < 0.05) for AKIN stage 0 vs. stages 1, 2, and 3, and for AKIN stage 1 vs. stage 3. The AKIN, SOFA, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores showed well discriminative power in predicting hospital mortality in this group of patients. The AKIN scoring system proved to be a reproducible evaluation tool with excellent prognostic abilities for these patients.

Annual variation in Internet keyword searches: Linking dieting interest to obesity and negative health outcomes.

PubMed

Markey, Patrick M; Markey, Charlotte N

2013-07-01

This study investigated the annual variation in Internet searches regarding dieting. Time-series analysis was first used to examine the annual trends of Google keyword searches during the past 7 years for topics related to dieting within the United States. The results indicated that keyword searches for dieting fit a consistent 12-month linear model, peaking in January (following New Year's Eve) and then linearly decreasing until surging again the following January. Additional state-level analyses revealed that the size of the December-January dieting-related keyword surge was predictive of both obesity and mortality rates due to diabetes, heart disease, and stroke.

Performance of PRISM III and PELOD-2 scores in a pediatric intensive care unit.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Jean-Pierre; Severo, Milton; Rocha, Carla; Jardim, Joana; Mota, Teresa; Ribeiro, Augusto

2015-10-01

The study aims were to compare two models (The Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (PRISM III) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD-2)) for prediction of mortality in a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and recalibrate PELOD-2 in a Portuguese population. To achieve the previous goal, a prospective cohort study to evaluate score performance (standardized mortality ratio, discrimination, and calibration) for both models was performed. A total of 556 patients consecutively admitted to our PICU between January 2011 and December 2012 were included in the analysis. The median age was 65 months, with an interquartile range of 1 month to 17 years. The male-to-female ratio was 1.5. The median length of PICU stay was 3 days. The overall predicted number of deaths using PRISM III score was 30.8 patients whereas that by PELOD-2 was 22.1 patients. The observed mortality was 29 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the two models was 0.92 and 0.94, respectively. The Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed a good calibration only for PRISM III (PRISM III: χ (2) = 3.820, p = 0.282; PELOD-2: χ (2) = 9.576, p = 0.022). Both scores had good discrimination. PELOD-2 needs recalibration to be a better reliable prediction tool. • PRISM III (Pediatric Risk of Mortality III) and PELOD (Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction) scores are frequently used to assess the performance of intensive care units and also for mortality prediction in the pediatric population. • Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction 2 is the newer version of PELOD and has recently been validated with good discrimination and calibration. What is New: • In our population, both scores had good discrimination. • PELOD-2 needs recalibration to be a better reliable prediction tool.

Incident and prevalent cohorts with pulmonary arterial hypertension: insight from SERAPHIN.

PubMed

Simonneau, Gérald; Channick, Richard N; Delcroix, Marion; Galiè, Nazzareno; Ghofrani, Hossein-Ardeschir; Jansa, Pavel; Le Brun, Franck-Olivier; Mehta, Sanjay; Perchenet, Loic; Pulido, Tomás; Sastry, B K S; Sitbon, Olivier; Souza, Rogério; Torbicki, Adam; Rubin, Lewis J

2015-12-01

In SERAPHIN, a long-term, randomised, controlled trial (NCT00660179) in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), macitentan significantly reduced the risk of morbidity/mortality and PAH-related death/hospitalisation. We evaluated disease progression and the effect of macitentan in treatment-naïve incident and prevalent cohorts.Patients allocated to placebo, or macitentan 3 mg or 10 mg were classified by time from diagnosis to enrolment as incident (≤6 months; n=110) or prevalent (>6 months; n=157). The risk of morbidity/mortality and PAH-related death/hospitalisation was determined using Cox regression.The risk of morbidity/mortality (Kaplan-Meier estimates at month 12: 54.4% versus 26.7%; p=0.006) and PAH-related death/hospitalisation (Kaplan-Meier estimates at month 12: 47.3% versus 19.9%; p=0.006) were significantly higher for incident versus prevalent patients receiving placebo, respectively. There was no significant difference in the risk of all-cause death between incident and prevalent cohorts (p=0.587). Macitentan 10 mg significantly reduced the risk of morbidity/mortality and PAH-related death/hospitalisation versus placebo in incident and prevalent cohorts.Incident patients had a higher risk for PAH progression compared with prevalent patients but not a higher risk of death. Macitentan delayed disease progression in both incident and prevalent PAH patients. Copyright ©ERS 2015.

Placental transfusion in preterm neonates of 30-33 weeks' gestation: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Das, Bikramjit; Sundaram, Venkataseshan; Tarnow-Mordi, William; Ghadge, Alpana; Dhaliwal, Lakhbir Kaur; Kumar, Praveen

2018-02-06

To compare effect of placental transfusion by delayed cord clamping (DCC) or cord milking (CM) with early cord clamping (ECC) on a composite of mortality or abnormal neurological status at 40 weeks' post-menstrual age (PMA) and 24-30 months' chronological age in neonates of 30-33 weeks' gestation. Randomized, controlled trial. A composite of mortality or abnormal neurological status at 40 weeks PMA and survival free of neurodevelopmental abnormalities at 24-30 months' chronological age. A total of 461 neonates were randomized to placental transfusion (n = 233) or to ECC (n = 228). Among those assigned to placental transfusion group, 173 underwent DCC while in the remaining 60, CM was done. Incidence of mortality or abnormal neurological status at 40 weeks PMA (43 (18%) vs 35 (15%), RR (95% CI) 1.2 (0.8, 1.8), p = 0.4) and survival free of neurodevelopmental impairment at 24-30 months of chronological age (99 (47%) vs. 100 (50%); RR (95% CI): 0.9 (0.8, 1.2); P = 0.9) was similar between the study groups. The placental transfusion group showed a trend towards lower incidence of necrotizing enterocolitis. In 30-33 weeks' gestation preterm neonates, placental transfusion as compared to early cord clamping resulted in similar mortality or abnormal neurological status at 40 weeks PMA and at 24-30 months of chronological age.

Physical function and self-rated health status as predictors of mortality: results from longitudinal analysis in the ilSIRENTE study.

PubMed

Cesari, Matteo; Onder, Graziano; Zamboni, Valentina; Manini, Todd; Shorr, Ronald I; Russo, Andrea; Bernabei, Roberto; Pahor, Marco; Landi, Francesco

2008-12-22

Physical function measures have been shown to predict negative health-related events in older persons, including mortality. These markers of functioning may interact with the self-rated health (SRH) in the prediction of events. Aim of the present study is to compare the predictive value for mortality of measures of physical function and SRH status, and test their possible interactions. Data are from 335 older persons aged >or= 80 years (mean age 85.6 years) enrolled in the "Invecchiamento e Longevità nel Sirente" (ilSIRENTE) study. The predictive values for mortality of 4-meter walk test, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), hand grip strength, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, Instrumental ADL (IADL) scale, and a SRH scale were compared using proportional hazard models. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for mortality and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were also computed to estimate the predictive value of the independent variables of interest for mortality (alone and in combination). During the 24-month follow-up (mean 1.8 years), 71 (21.2%) events occurred in the study sample. All the tested variables were able to significantly predict mortality. No significant interaction was reported between physical function measures and SRH. The SPPB score was the strongest predictor of overall mortality after adjustment for potential confounders (per SD increase; HR 0.64; 95%CI 0.48-0.86). A similar predictive value was showed by the SRH (per SD increase; HR 0.76; 95%CI 0.59-0.97). The chair stand test was the SPPB subtask showing the highest prognostic value. All the tested measures are able to predict mortality with different extents, but strongest results were obtained from the SPPB and the SRH. The chair stand test may be as useful as the complete SPPB in estimating the mortality risk.

Measles mortality in high and low burden districts of India: estimates from a nationally representative study of over 12,000 child deaths.

PubMed

Morris, Shaun K; Awasthi, Shally; Kumar, Rajesh; Shet, Anita; Khera, Ajay; Nakhaee, Fatemeh; Ram, Usha; Brandao, Jose R M; Jha, Prabhat

2013-09-23

Direct estimates of measles mortality in India are unavailable. Our objective is, to use a nationally-representative study of mortality to estimate the number and distribution of, measles deaths in India with a focus on 264 high burden districts. We used physician coded verbal autopsy data from the Million Death Study which surveyed, over 12,000 deaths in children aged 1 month to under 15 years from 1.1 million nationally, representative households in 2001-2003. We estimate there were 92,000 (99% CI 63,000-137,000) measles deaths in children 1-59, months of age in India in 2005, representing a mortality rate of 3.3 (99% CI 2.3-5.0) per 1000 live, births and about 6% of all 1-59 month deaths. In children under 15 years of age, there were 107,000, (99% CI 74,000-158,000) measles deaths. The measles mortality rate was nearly 70% greater in girls, than in boys, and 60% of the deaths were in three populous states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya, Pradesh. The 1-59 month measles mortality rate in high burden districts was 4.48 (99% CI 3.94-5.02) compared to 2.40 (99% CI 2.28-2.52) per 1000 live births in other districts. Measles killed over 100,000 children in India in 2005 and girls were at higher risk than boys. The majority of measles deaths occurred in a few states and high burden districts. The results of this study highlight the importance of focusing measles supplementary immunization activities in high burden districts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Mortality in patients with potentially severe trauma in a tertiary care hospital emergency department and evaluation of risk prediction with the GAP prognostic scale].

PubMed

Martín Quirós, Alejandro; Borobia Pérez, Alberto; Pertejo Fernández, Ana; Pérez Perilla, Patricia; Rivera Núñez, Angélica; Martínez Virto, Ana María; Quintana Díaz, Manuel

2015-01-01

To assess mortality in patients with potentially severe injuries and explore the correlation between mortality and the score on the GAP scale (Glasgow Coma Scale, age, and systolic blood pressure). Retrospective observational study of all patients with potentially severe injuries treated in an emergency department (ED) over a period of 15 months. We recorded epidemiologic variables, cause of injury, type of transport, need for prehospital orotracheal intubation, substance abuse, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), variables for the GAP prognostic score, destination on discharge from the ED and at the end of the episode, and mortality. Data for 864 patients entered the final analysis. Mortality was higher in older patients (mean [SD] age, 57.9 [26.6] vs 41.1 [17.4], P<.05) and those with a higher mean CCI (3.3 [2.9] vs 0.9 [1.7]). Accident type was a precipitating factor associated with mortality (P<.001), but substance abuse was unrelated. Patients who died had lower mean Glasgow scores (9.1 [5.3] vs 14.8 [1.2], P<.001) and lower mean systolic and diastolic pressures (respectively, 113.8 [19.8] vs 131.3 [20.7] mm Hg, P=.012, and 60.1 [16.8] vs 77.7 [11.7] mm Hg, P=.002). Patients who died also had lower mean GAP scores than survivors (15.1 [4.8] vs 22.6 [1.7], P<.001). Risk factors that remained significant in the multivariate analysis were CCI (odds ratio [OR], 0.704; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96) and GAP score (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.45-2.20). Mortality in our patient series was lower than rates in previously published reports. The GAP score was a useful tool for predicting mortality in the series we studied.

Application of the FOUR Score in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Braksick, Sherri A; Hemphill, J Claude; Mandrekar, Jay; Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Fugate, Jennifer E

2018-06-01

The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a validated scale describing the essentials of a coma examination, including motor response, eye opening and eye movements, brainstem reflexes, and respiratory pattern. We incorporated the FOUR Score into the existing ICH Score and evaluated its accuracy of risk assessment in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Consecutive patients admitted to our institution from 2009 to 2012 with spontaneous ICH were reviewed. The ICH Score was calculated using patient age, hemorrhage location, hemorrhage volume, evidence of intraventricular extension, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The FOUR Score was then incorporated into the ICH Score as a substitute for the GCS (ICH Score FS ). The ability of the 2 scores to predict mortality at 1 month was then compared. In total, 274 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 73 years (interquartile range 60-82) and 138 (50.4%) were male. Overall mortality at 1 month was 28.8% (n = 79). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .91 for the ICH Score and .89 for the ICH Score FS . For ICH Scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, 1-month mortality was 4.2%, 29.9%, 62.5%, 95.0%, and 100%. In the ICH Score FS model, mortality was 10.7%, 26.5%, 64.5%, 88.9%, and 100% for scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The ICH Score and the ICH Score FS predict 1-month mortality with comparable accuracy. As the FOUR Score provides additional clinical information regarding patient status, it may be a reasonable substitute for the GCS into the ICH Score. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sepsis patients in the emergency department: stratification using the Clinical Impression Score, Predisposition, Infection, Response and Organ dysfunction score or quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score?

PubMed

Quinten, Vincent M; van Meurs, Matijs; Wolffensperger, Anna E; Ter Maaten, Jan C; Ligtenberg, Jack J M

2017-05-08

The aim of this study was to compare the stratification of sepsis patients in the emergency department (ED) for ICU admission and mortality using the Predisposition, Infection, Response and Organ dysfunction (PIRO) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores with clinical judgement assessed by the ED staff. This was a prospective observational study in the ED of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Adult nontrauma patients with suspected infection and at least two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria were included. The primary outcome was direct ED to ICU admission. The secondary outcomes were in-hospital, 28-day and 6-month mortality, indirect ICU admission and length of stay. Clinical judgement was recorded using the Clinical Impression Scores (CIS), appraised by a nurse and the attending physician. The PIRO and qSOFA scores were calculated from medical records. We included 193 patients: 103 presented with sepsis, 81 with severe sepsis and nine with septic shock. Fifteen patients required direct ICU admission. The CIS scores of nurse [area under the curve (AUC)=0.896] and the attending physician (AUC=0.861), in conjunction with PIRO (AUC=0.876) and qSOFA scores (AUC=0.849), predicted direct ICU admission. The CIS scores did not predict any of the mortality endpoints. The PIRO predicted in-hospital (AUC=0.764), 28-day (AUC=0.784) and 6-month mortality (AUC=0.695). The qSOFA score also predicted in-hospital (AUC=0.823), 28-day (AUC=0.848) and 6-month mortality (AUC=0.620). Clinical judgement is a fast and reliable method to stratify between ICU and general ward admission in ED patients with sepsis. The PIRO and qSOFA scores do not add value to this stratification, but perform better on the prediction of mortality. In sepsis patients, therefore, the principle of 'treat first what kills first' can be supplemented with 'judge first and calculate later'.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Risk factors, mortality, and timing of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with left ventricular assist devices.

PubMed

Frontera, Jennifer A; Starling, Randall; Cho, Sung-Min; Nowacki, Amy S; Uchino, Ken; Hussain, M Shazam; Mountis, Maria; Moazami, Nader

2017-06-01

Stroke is a major cause of mortality after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. Prospectively collected data of patients with HeartMate II (n = 332) and HeartWare (n = 70) LVADs from October 21, 2004, to May 19, 2015, were reviewed. Predictors of early (during index hospitalization) and late (post-discharge) ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and association of stroke subtypes with mortality were assessed. Of 402 patients, 83 strokes occurred in 69 patients (17%; 0.14 events per patient-year [EPPY]): early ischemic stroke in 18/402 (4%; 0.03 EPPY), early hemorrhagic stroke in 11/402 (3%; 0.02 EPPY), late ischemic stroke in 25/402 (6%; 0.04 EPPY) and late hemorrhagic stroke in 29/402 (7%; 0.05 EPPY). Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke was bimodal with highest risks immediately post-implant and increasing again 9-12 months later. Risk of death declined over time in patients without stroke. Modifiable stroke risk factors varied according to timing and stroke type, including tobacco use, bacteremia, pump thrombosis, pump infection, and hypertension (all p < 0.05). In multivariable analysis, early hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-17.8, p = 0.04), late ischemic stroke (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.0, p = 0.03), and late hemorrhagic stroke (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.2, p = 0.005) predicted death, whereas early ischemic stroke did not. Stroke is a leading cause and predictor of death in patients with LVADs. Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke is bimodal, with highest risk at time of implant and increasing risk again after 9-12 months. Management of modifiable risk factors may reduce stroke and mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Symptoms of depression and anxiety predict mortality in patients undergoing oral anticoagulation: Results from the thrombEVAL study program.

PubMed

Michal, Matthias; Prochaska, Jürgen H; Keller, Karsten; Göbel, Sebastian; Coldewey, Meike; Ullmann, Alexander; Schulz, Andreas; Lamparter, Heidrun; Münzel, Thomas; Reiner, Iris; Beutel, Manfred E; Wild, Philipp S

2015-01-01

Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent in cardiovascular patients. Therefore, we examined whether the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4, measuring symptoms of depression and anxiety) predicts all-cause mortality in outpatients with long-term oral anticoagulation (OAC). The sample comprised n=1384 outpatients from a regular medical care setting receiving long-term OAC with vitamin K antagonists. At baseline, symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed with the PHQ-4 and the past medical history was taken. The outcome was all-cause mortality in the 24 month observation period. The median follow-up time was 13.3 months. N=191 patients from n=1384 died (death rate 13.8%). Each point increase in the PHQ-4 score was associated with a 10% increase in mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-1.16) after adjustment for age, sex, high school graduation, partnership, smoking, obesity, frailty according to the Barthel Index, Charlson Comorbidity Index and CHA2DS2-VASc score. The depression component (PHQ-2) increased mortality by 22% and anxiety (GAD-2) by 11% respectively. Neither medical history of any mental disorder, nor intake of antidepressants, anxiolytics or hypnotics predicted excess mortality. Elevated symptoms of depression and, to a lesser degree, symptoms of anxiety are independently associated with all-cause mortality in OAC outpatients. The PHQ-4 questionnaire provides valuable prognostic information. These findings emphasize the need for implementing regular screening procedures and the development and evaluation of appropriate psychosocial treatment approaches for OAC patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Iron status and survival in diabetic patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ponikowska, Beata; Suchocki, Tomasz; Paleczny, Bartlomiej; Olesinska, Martyna; Powierza, Slawomir; Borodulin-Nadzieja, Ludmila; Reczuch, Krzysztof; von Haehling, Stephan; Doehner, Wolfram; Anker, Stefan D; Cleland, John G F; Jankowska, Ewa A

2013-12-01

To investigate the impact of iron status on survival in patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD). Serum ferritin, transferrin saturation (Tsat), and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) were measured in 287 patients with type 2 diabetes and stable CAD (65 ± 9 years of age, 78% men). During a mean follow-up of 45 ± 19 months, there were 59 (21%) deaths and 60 (21%) cardiovascular hospitalizations. Both serum ferritin and sTfR strongly predicted 5-year all-cause mortality rates, independently of other variables (including hemoglobin, measures of renal function, inflammation, and neurohormonal activation). There was an exponential relationship between sTfR and mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per 1 log mg/L: 4.24 [95% CI 1.43-12.58], P = 0.01), whereas the relationship between ferritin and mortality was U-shaped (for the lowest and the highest quintiles vs. the middle quintile [reference group], respectively: adjusted HR 7.18 [95% CI 2.03-25.46], P = 0.002, and adjusted HR 5.12 [1.48-17.73], P = 0.01). Similar patterns were observed for the composite outcome of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization, and in these multivariable models, low Tsat was related to unfavorable outcome. Both low and high serum ferritin (possibly reflecting depleted and excessive iron stores, respectively) along with high serum sTfR (reflecting reduced metabolically available iron) identify patients with type 2 diabetes and CAD who have a poor prognosis.

Depression increasingly predicts mortality in the course of congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Jünger, Jana; Schellberg, Dieter; Müller-Tasch, Thomas; Raupp, Georg; Zugck, Christian; Haunstetter, Armin; Zipfel, Stephan; Herzog, Wolfgang; Haass, Markus

2005-03-02

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is frequently associated with depression. However, the impact of depression on prognosis has not yet been sufficiently established. To prospectively investigate the influence of depression on mortality in patients with CHF. In 209 CHF patients depression was assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). Compared to survivors (n=164), non-survivors (n=45) were characterized by a higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (2.8+/-0.7 vs. 2.5+/-0.6), and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (18+/-8 vs. 23+/-10%) and peakVO(2) (13.1+/-4.5 vs. 15.4+/-5.2 ml/kg/min) at baseline. Furthermore, non-survivors had a higher depression score (7.5+/-4.0 vs. 6.1+/-4.3) (all P<0.05). After a mean follow-up of 24.8 months the depression score was identified as a significant indicator of mortality (P<0.01). In multivariate analysis the depression score predicted mortality independent from NYHA functional class, LVEF and peakVO(2). Combination of depression score, LVEF and peakVO(2) allowed for a better risk stratification than combination of LVEF and peakVO(2) alone. The risk ratio for mortality in patients with an elevated depression score (i.e. above the median) rose over time to 8.2 after 30 months (CI 2.62-25.84). The depression score predicts mortality independent of somatic parameters in CHF patients not treated for depression. Its prognostic power increases over time and should, thus, be accounted for in risk stratification and therapy.

Mortality rates and risk factors for emergent open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in the endovascular era.

PubMed

Pecoraro, Felice; Gloekler, Steffen; Mader, Caecilia E; Roos, Malgorzata; Chaykovska, Lyubov; Veith, Frank J; Cayne, Neal S; Mangialardi, Nicola; Neff, Thomas; Lachat, Mario

2018-03-01

The background of this paper is to report the mortality at 30 and 90 days and at mean follow-up after open abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) emergent repair and to identify predictive risk factors for 30- and 90-day mortality. Between 1997 and 2002, 104 patients underwent emergent AAA open surgery. Symptomatic and ruptured AAAs were observed, respectively, in 21 and 79% of cases. Mean patient age was 70 (SD 9.2) years. Mean aneurysm maximal diameter was 7.4 (SD 1.6) cm. Primary endpoints were 30- and 90-day mortality. Significant mortality-related risk factor identification was the secondary endpoint. Open repair trend and its related perioperative mortality with a per-year analysis and a correlation subanalysis to identify predictive mortality factor were performed. Mean follow-up time was 23 (SD 23) months. Overall, 30-day mortality was 30%. Significant mortality-related risk factors were the use of computed tomography (CT) as a preoperative diagnostic tool, AAA rupture, preoperative shock, intraoperative cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), use of aortic balloon occlusion, intraoperative massive blood transfusion (MBT), and development of abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS). Previous abdominal surgery was identified as a protective risk factor. The mortality rate at 90 days was 44%. Significant mortality-related risk factors were AAA rupture, aortocaval fistula, peripheral artery disease (PAD), preoperative shock, CPR, MBT, and ACS. The mortality rate at follow-up was 45%. Correlation analysis showed that MBT, shock, and ACS are the most relevant predictive mortality factor at 30 and 90 days. During the transition period from open to endovascular repair, open repair mortality outcomes remained comparable with other contemporary data despite a selection bias for higher risk patients. MBT, shock, and ACS are the most pronounced predictive mortality risk factors.

Effects of Birth Month on Child Health and Survival in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Dorélien, Audrey M.

2015-01-01

Birth month is broadly predictive of both under-five mortality rates and stunting throughout most of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Observed factors, such as mother's age at birth and educational status, are correlated with birth month but are not the main factors underlying the relationship between birth month and child health. Accounting for maternal selection via a fixed-effects model attenuates the relationship between birth month and health in many SSA countries. In the remaining countries, the effect of birth month may be mediated by environmental factors. Birth month effects on mortality typically do not vary across age intervals; the differential mortality rates by birth month were evident in the neonatal period and continued across age intervals. The male-to-female sex-ratio at birth did not vary by birth month, which suggests that in utero exposures are not influencing fetal loss, and therefore, the birth month effects are not likely due to selective survival during the in utero period. In one-third of the sample, the birth month effects on stunting diminished after the age of two years; therefore, some children were able to catch-up. Policies to improve child health should target pregnant women and infants and must take seasonality into account. PMID:26266973

Improving prediction of heart transplantation outcome using deep learning techniques.

PubMed

Medved, Dennis; Ohlsson, Mattias; Höglund, Peter; Andersson, Bodil; Nugues, Pierre; Nilsson, Johan

2018-02-26

The primary objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of two risk models, International Heart Transplantation Survival Algorithm (IHTSA), developed using deep learning technique, and Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation (IMPACT), to predict survival after heart transplantation. Data from adult heart transplanted patients between January 1997 to December 2011 were collected from the UNOS registry. The study included 27,860 heart transplantations, corresponding to 27,705 patients. The study cohorts were divided into patients transplanted before 2009 (derivation cohort) and from 2009 (test cohort). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values, for the validation cohort, computed for one-year mortality, were 0.654 (95% CI: 0.629-0.679) for IHTSA and 0.608 (0.583-0.634) for the IMPACT model. The discrimination reached a C-index for long-term survival of 0.627 (0.608-0.646) for IHTSA, compared with 0.584 (0.564-0.605) for the IMPACT model. These figures correspond to an error reduction of 12% for ROC and 10% for C-index by using deep learning technique. The predicted one-year mortality rates for were 12% and 22% for IHTSA and IMPACT, respectively, versus an actual mortality rate of 10%. The IHTSA model showed superior discriminatory power to predict one-year mortality and survival over time after heart transplantation compared to the IMPACT model.

Impact Evaluation of PRONTO Mexico: A Simulation-Based Program in Obstetric and Neonatal Emergencies and Team Training.

PubMed

Walker, Dilys M; Cohen, Susanna R; Fritz, Jimena; Olvera-García, Marisela; Zelek, Sarah T; Fahey, Jenifer O; Romero-Martínez, Martín; Montoya-Rodríguez, Alejandra; Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor

2016-02-01

Most maternal deaths in Mexico occur within health facilities, often attributable to suboptimal care and lack of access to emergency services. Improving obstetric and neonatal emergency care can improve health outcomes. We evaluated the impact of PRONTO, a simulation-based low-cost obstetric and neonatal emergency and team training program on patient outcomes. We conducted a pair-matched hospital-based trial in Mexico from 2010 to 2013 with 24 public hospitals. Obstetric and neonatal care providers participated in PRONTO trainings at intervention hospitals. Control hospitals received no intervention. Outcome measures included hospital-based neonatal mortality, maternal complications, and cesarean delivery. We fitted mixed-effects negative binomial regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals using a difference-in-differences approach, cumulatively, and at follow-up intervals measured at 4, 8, and 12 months. There was a significant estimated impact of PRONTO on the incidence of cesarean sections in intervention hospitals relative to controls adjusting for baseline differences during all 12 months cumulative of follow-up (21% decrease, P = 0.005) and in intervals measured at 4 (16% decrease, P = 0.02), 8 (20% decrease, P = 0.004), and 12 months' (20% decrease, P = 0.003) follow-up. We found no statistically significant impact of the intervention on the incidence of maternal complications. A significant impact of a 40% reduction in neonatal mortality adjusting for baseline differences was apparent at 8 months postintervention but not at 4 or 12 months. PRONTO reduced the incidence of cesarean delivery and may improve neonatal mortality, although the effect on the latter might not be sustainable. Further study is warranted to confirm whether obstetric and neonatal emergency simulation and team training can have lasting results on patient outcomes.

A Comparison of Systemic Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores in Patients on Regular Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Kato, Akihiko; Tsuji, Takayuki; Sakao, Yukitoshi; Ohashi, Naro; Yasuda, Hideo; Fujimoto, Taiki; Takita, Takako; Furuhashi, Mitsuyoshi; Kumagai, Hiromichi

2013-01-01

Background/Aims Systemic inflammation-based prognostic scores have prognostic power in patients with cancer, independently of tumor stage and site. Although inflammatory status is associated with mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients, it remains to be determined as to whether these composite scores are useful in predicting clinical outcomes. Methods We calculated the 6 prognostic scores [Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic index (PI) and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), which have been established as a useful scoring system in cancer patients. We enrolled 339 patients on regular HD (age: 64 ± 13 years; time on HD: 129 ± 114 months; males/females = 253/85) and followed them for 42 months. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was used to determine which scoring system was more predictive of mortality. Results Elevated GPS, mGPS, NLR, PLR, PI and PNI were all associated with total mortality, independent of covariates. If GPS was raised, mGPS, NLR, PLR and PI were also predictive of all-cause mortality and/or hospitalization. GPS and PNI were associated with poor nutritional status. Using overall mortality as an endpoint, the area under the curve (AUC) was significant for a GPS of 0.701 (95% CI: 0.637-0.765; p < 0.01) and for a PNI of 0.616 (95% CI: 0.553-0.768; p = 0.01). However, AUC for hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dl) was comparable to that of GPS (0.695, 95% CI: 0.632-0.759; p < 0.01). Conclusion GPS, based on serum albumin and highly sensitive C-reactive protein, has the most prognostic power for mortality prediction among the prognostic scores in HD patients. However, as the determination of serum albumin reflects mortality similarly to GPS, other composite combinations are needed to provide additional clinical utility beyond that of albumin alone in HD patients. PMID:24403910

Iron deficiency defined as depleted iron stores accompanied by unmet cellular iron requirements identifies patients at the highest risk of death after an episode of acute heart failure.

PubMed

Jankowska, Ewa A; Kasztura, Monika; Sokolski, Mateusz; Bronisz, Marek; Nawrocka, Sylwia; Oleśkowska-Florek, Weronika; Zymliński, Robert; Biegus, Jan; Siwołowski, Paweł; Banasiak, Waldemar; Anker, Stefan D; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Cleland, John G F; Ponikowski, Piotr

2014-09-21

Acute heart failure (AHF) critically deranges haemodynamic and metabolic homoeostasis. Iron is a key micronutrient for homoeostasis maintenance. We hypothesized that iron deficiency (ID) defined as depleted iron stores accompanied by unmet cellular iron requirements would in this setting predict the poor outcome. Among 165 AHF patients (age 65 ± 12 years, 81% men, 31% de novo HF), for ID diagnosis we prospectively applied: low serum hepcidin reflecting depleted iron stores (<14.5 ng/mL, the 5th percentile in healthy peers), and high-serum soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) reflecting unmet cellular iron requirements (≥1.59 mg/L, the 95th percentile in healthy peers). Concomitance of low hepcidin and high sTfR (the most profound ID) was found in 37%, isolated either high sTfR or low hepcidin was found in 29 and 9% of patients, and 25% of subjects demonstrated preserved iron status. Patients with low hepcidin and high sTfR had peripheral oedema, high NT-proBNP, high uric acid, low haemoglobin (P < 0.05), and 5% in-hospital mortality (0% in remaining patients). During the 12-month follow-up, 33 (20%) patients died. Those with low hepcidin and high sTfR had the highest 12-month mortality [(41% (95% CI: 29-53%)] when compared with those with isolated high sTfR [15% (5-25%)], isolated low hepcidin [7% (0-19%)] and preserved iron status (0%) (P < 0.001). Analogous mortality patterns were seen separately in anaemics and non-anaemics. Iron deficiency defined as depleted body iron stores and unmet cellular iron requirements is common in AHF, and identifies those with the poor outcome. Its correction may be an attractive therapeutic approach. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2014. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Early Implantation of Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators for Patients with Newly Diagnosed Severe Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voskoboinik, Aleksandr; Bloom, Jason; Taylor, Andrew; Mariani, Justin

2016-09-01

Primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) reduce mortality in selected patients with severe systolic dysfunction. Current guidelines suggest a 3- to 6-month waiting period before implantation. We retrospectively studied 29 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed nonischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM) who underwent primary prevention ICD implantation within 6 months of diagnosis between January 2008 and April 2014. Cardiac MRI (CMR) evaluated left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and regional fibrosis preimplant. The primary end point was "failure to qualify for an ICD at 12 months postimplant," either due to LVEF ≥ 35% or deterioration necessitating mechanical support or transplantation, without appropriate ICD therapy. Secondary end points were appropriate and inappropriate ICD therapy. Baseline mean age was 44.2 ± 14.8 years and median LVEF 16.4%. Median time from diagnosis to implant was 32 days. At 12 months, 17 patients (58.6%) no longer qualified for an ICD, mainly due to LVEF improvement. At follow-up (mean 32.0 ± 20.6 months), three patients received appropriate therapy (one for ventricular fibrillation). All three had CMR late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) preimplant. Cardiac resynchronization at implant predicted LVEF improvement. Early appropriate therapy, particularly for ventricular fibrillation, is infrequent for patients with very severe NICM who have ICDs implanted within 6 months of diagnosis. The majority of these patients would not qualify for an ICD at 12 months postinsertion. In the absence of a multimodality risk score, early ICD insertion should only be considered in selected cases (presence of LGE and NSVT). Wearable cardioverter defibrillators may have a role as a bridge to ICD decision. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Relationships between iron dose, hospitalizations and mortality in incident haemodialysis patients: a propensity-score matched approach.

PubMed

Varas, Javier; Ramos, Rosa; Aljama, Pedro; Pérez-García, Rafael; Moreso, Francesc; Pinedo, Miguel; Ignacio Merello, José; Stuard, Stefano; Canaud, Bernard; Martín-Malo, Alejandro

2018-01-01

Intravenous iron management is common in the haemodialysis population. However, the safest dosing strategy remains uncertain, in terms of the risk of hospitalization and mortality. We aimed to determine the effects of cumulative monthly iron doses on mortality and hospitalization. This multicentre observational retrospective propensity-matched score study included 1679 incident haemodialysis patients. We measured baseline demographic variables, haemodialysis clinical parameters and laboratory analytical values. We compared outcomes among quartiles of cumulative iron dose (mg/kg/month). We implemented propensity-score matching (PSM) to reduce confounding due to indication. In the PSM cohort (330 patients), we compared outcomes between groups that received cumulative iron doses above and below 5.66 mg/kg/month. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that the high iron dose group had significantly worse survival than the low iron dose group. A univariate analysis indicated that the monthly iron dose could significantly predict mortality. However, a multivariate regression did not confirm that finding. The multivariate regression analysis revealed that iron doses  >5.58 mg/kg/month were not associated with elevated mortality risk, but they were associated with elevated risks of all-cause and cardiovascular-related hospitalizations. These results were ratified in the PSM population. Intravenous iron administration is advisable for maintaining haemoglobin levels in patients that receive haemodialysis. Our data suggested that large monthly iron doses, adjusted for body weight, were associated with more hospitalizations, but not with mortality or infection-related hospitalizations. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Should We Pay Attention to the Delay Before Admission to a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit for Children With Cancer? Impact on 1-Month Mortality. A Report From the French Children's Oncology Study Group, GOCE.

PubMed

Fausser, Jeanne-L; Tavenard, Aude; Rialland, Fanny; Le Moine, Philippe; Minckes, Odile; Jourdain, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Pellier, Isabelle; Gandemer, Virginie

2017-07-01

Acute complications requiring admission to pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) are frequent for children with cancer. Our objective was to determine early prognostic factors of mortality in a cohort of children with cancer hospitalized in PICU for acute complications and particularly to assess whether the delay before admission to a PICU is an early predictor of mortality. We conduct a retrospective multicenter analysis. All patients transferred in PICU for acute complications between January 2002 and December 2012 were included. One-month mortality of the 224 patients analyzed was 24.5%. Delay before PICU admission was a significant prognostic factor of 1-month mortality with nonsurvivors experiencing a longer median delay than survivors (24 vs. 12 h, respectively, P<0.05). Time from diagnosis to PICU admission (P<0.001), hematopoietic stem cell transplant (P<0.05), the duration of neutropenia (P<0.01), infection type (P<0.001), number of organ dysfunctions (P<0.001), and reaching any grade 4 toxicity before PICU admission (P<0.001) also affected mortality rate at 1-month post-PICU discharge. In the multivariate analysis, only reaching any grade 4 toxicity before PICU admission influenced 1-month mortality (odds ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-4.96; P<0.05). These results suggest that PICU admission before severe impairment leads to a better outcome for children with cancer.

Determinants of child nutrition and mortality in north-west Uganda.

PubMed

Vella, V; Tomkins, A; Borghesi, A; Migliori, G B; Adriko, B C; Crevatin, E

1992-01-01

An anthropometric survey of children aged 0-59 months in north-west Uganda in February-March 1987 indicated a high prevalence of stunting but little wasting. Use of unprotected water supplies in the dry season, prolonged breast-feeding, and age negatively affected nutrition; in contrast, parental education level improved nutrition. Mortality during the 12 months following the survey was higher among those who had low weight-for-age and weight-for-height, but children who had low height-for-age did not have higher mortality. Weight-for-age was the most sensitive predictor of mortality at specificities > 88%, while at lower specificity levels weight-for-height was the most sensitive. Children whose fathers' work was associated with the distillation of alcohol had a higher risk of mortality than other children. The lowest mortality was among children whose fathers were businessmen or who grew tobacco.

White cell count in the normal range and short-term and long-term mortality: international comparisons of electronic health record cohorts in England and New Zealand.

PubMed

Shah, Anoop Dinesh; Thornley, Simon; Chung, Sheng-Chia; Denaxas, Spiros; Jackson, Rod; Hemingway, Harry

2017-02-17

Electronic health records offer the opportunity to discover new clinical implications for established blood tests, but international comparisons have been lacking. We tested the association of total white cell count (WBC) with all-cause mortality in England and New Zealand. Primary care practices in England (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records (CALIBER)) and New Zealand (PREDICT). Analysis of linked electronic health record data sets: CALIBER (primary care, hospitalisation, mortality and acute coronary syndrome registry) and PREDICT (cardiovascular risk assessments in primary care, hospitalisations, mortality, dispensed medication and laboratory results). People aged 30-75 years with no prior cardiovascular disease (CALIBER: N=686 475, 92.0% white; PREDICT: N=194 513, 53.5% European, 14.7% Pacific, 13.4% Maori), followed until death, transfer out of practice (in CALIBER) or study end. HRs for mortality were estimated using Cox models adjusted for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, ethnicity and total:high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio. We found 'J'-shaped associations between WBC and mortality; the second quintile was associated with lowest risk in both cohorts. High WBC within the reference range (8.65-10.05×10 9 /L) was associated with significantly increased mortality compared to the middle quintile (6.25-7.25×10 9 /L); adjusted HR 1.51 (95% CI 1.43 to 1.59) in CALIBER and 1.33 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.65) in PREDICT. WBC outside the reference range was associated with even greater mortality. The association was stronger over the first 6 months of follow-up, but similar across ethnic groups. Clinically recorded WBC within the range considered 'normal' is associated with mortality in ethnically different populations from two countries, particularly within the first 6 months. Large-scale international comparisons of electronic health record cohorts might yield new insights from widely performed clinical tests. NCT02014610. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p<0.01). The best cut-off value of HVPG for predicting long-term overall mortality in all patients was 17 mm Hg. The mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 8.9% and 19.2%, respectively: 1.9% and 11.9% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 16.2% and 29.4% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Change of Nutritional Status Assessed Using Subjective Global Assessment Is Associated With All-Cause Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients.

PubMed

Kwon, Young Eun; Kee, Youn Kyung; Yoon, Chang-Yun; Han, In Mee; Han, Seung Gyu; Park, Kyoung Sook; Lee, Mi Jung; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung H; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Yon Su; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam-Ho; Kang, Shin-Wook

2016-02-01

Subjective global assessment (SGA) is associated with mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. However, little is known whether improvement or deterioration of nutritional status after dialysis initiation influences the clinical outcome. We aimed to elucidate the association between changes in nutritional status determined by SGA during the first year of dialysis and all-cause mortality in incident ESRD patients. This was a multicenter, prospective cohort study. Incident dialysis patients with available SGA data at both baseline and 12 months after dialysis commencement (n = 914) were analyzed. Nutritional status was defined as well nourished (WN, SGA A) or malnourished (MN, SGA B or C). The patients were divided into 4 groups according to the change in nutritional status between baseline and 12 months after dialysis commencement: group 1, WN to WN; group 2, MN to WN; group 3, WN to MN; and group 4, MN to MN. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to clarify the association between changes in nutritional status and mortality. Being in the MN group at 12 months after dialysis initiation, but not at baseline, was a significant risk factor for mortality. There was a significant difference in the 3-year survival rates among the groups (group 1, 92.2%; group 2, 86.0%; group 3, 78.2%; and group 4, 63.5%; log-rank test, P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the mortality risk was significantly higher in group 3 than in group 1 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-6.03, P = 0.01) whereas the mortality risk was significantly lower in group 2 compared with group 4 (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17-0.71, P < 0.01) even after adjustment for confounding factors. Moreover, mortality risk of group 3 was significantly higher than in group 2 (HR 2.89, 95% CI 1.22-6.81, P = 0.02); there was no significant difference between groups 1 and 2. The changes in nutritional status assessed by SGA during the first year of dialysis were associated with all-cause mortality in incident ESRD patients.

Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

PubMed

Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

2017-05-01

To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio <0.75 (HR 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.25) or E/A ratio >1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time <140 ms or >220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

Modern modeling techniques had limited external validity in predicting mortality from traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Nieboer, Daan; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-10-01

Prediction of medical outcomes may potentially benefit from using modern statistical modeling techniques. We aimed to externally validate modeling strategies for prediction of 6-month mortality of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) with predictor sets of increasing complexity. We analyzed individual patient data from 15 different studies including 11,026 TBI patients. We consecutively considered a core set of predictors (age, motor score, and pupillary reactivity), an extended set with computed tomography scan characteristics, and a further extension with two laboratory measurements (glucose and hemoglobin). With each of these sets, we predicted 6-month mortality using default settings with five statistical modeling techniques: logistic regression (LR), classification and regression trees, random forests (RFs), support vector machines (SVM) and neural nets. For external validation, a model developed on one of the 15 data sets was applied to each of the 14 remaining sets. This process was repeated 15 times for a total of 630 validations. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the discriminative ability of the models. For the most complex predictor set, the LR models performed best (median validated AUC value, 0.757), followed by RF and support vector machine models (median validated AUC value, 0.735 and 0.732, respectively). With each predictor set, the classification and regression trees models showed poor performance (median validated AUC value, <0.7). The variability in performance across the studies was smallest for the RF- and LR-based models (inter quartile range for validated AUC values from 0.07 to 0.10). In the area of predicting mortality from TBI, nonlinear and nonadditive effects are not pronounced enough to make modern prediction methods beneficial. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pulmonary function levels as predictors of mortality in a national sample of US adults.

PubMed

Neas, L M; Schwartz, J

1998-06-01

Single breath pulmonary diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DL(CO)) was examined as a predictor of all-cause mortality among 4,333 subjects who were aged 25-74 years at baseline in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) conducted from 1971 to 1975. The relation of the percentage of predicted DL(CO) to all-cause mortality was examined in a Cox proportional hazard model that included age, sex, race, current smoking status, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, alcohol consumption, body mass index, percentage of predicted forced vital capacity (FVC), and the ratio of forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) to FVC. Mortality had a linear association with the percentage of predicted FVC (rate ratio (RR) = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.17, for a 10% decrement) and a significantly nonlinear association with the percentage of predicted DL(CO) with an adverse effect that was clearly evident for levels below 85% of those predicted (RR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.37 for a 10% decrement). The relative hazard for the percentage of predicted DL(CO) below 85% was not modified by sex, smoking status, or exclusion of subjects with clinical respiratory disease on the initial examination. This association with the percentage of predicted DL(CO) was present among 3,005 subjects with FEV1 levels above 90% of those predicted. Thus, pulmonary diffusing capacity below 85% of predicted levels is a significant predictor of the all-cause mortality rate within the general US population independent of standard spirometry measures and even in the absence of apparent clinical respiratory disease.

Post-bleaching coral community change on southern Maldivian reefs: is there potential for rapid recovery?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, C. T.; Morgan, K. M.

2017-12-01

Given the severity of the 2016 global bleaching event, there are major questions about how quickly reef communities will recover. Here, we explore the ecological and physical structural changes that occurred across five atoll interior reefs in the southern Maldives using data collected at 6 and 12 months post-bleaching. Following initial severe coral mortality, further minor coral mortality had occurred by 12 months post-bleaching, and coral cover is now low (<6%). In contrast, reef rugosity has continued to decline over time, and our observations suggest transitions to rubble-dominated states will occur in the near future. Juvenile coral densities in shallow fore-reef habitats are also exceptionally low (<6 individuals m-2), well below those measured 9-12 months following the 1998 bleaching event, and below recovery thresholds identified on other Indian Ocean reefs. Our findings suggest that the physical structure of these reefs will need to decline further before effective recruitment and recovery can begin.

Angiotensin II type 1 receptor blockers as a first choice in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Lee, Jang Hoon; Bae, Myung Hwan; Yang, Dong Heon; Park, Hun Sik; Cho, Yongkeun; Lee, Won Kee; Jeong, Myung Ho; Kim, Young Jo; Cho, Myeong Chan; Kim, Chong Jin; Chae, Shung Chull

2016-03-01

Angiotensin II type 1 receptor blockers (ARBs) have not been adequately evaluated in patients without left ventricular (LV) dysfunction or heart failure after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Between November 2005 and January 2008, 6,781 patients who were not receiving angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or ARBs were selected from the Korean AMI Registry. The primary endpoints were 12-month major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) including death and recurrent AMI. Seventy percent of the patients were Killip class 1 and had a LV ejection fraction ≥ 40%. The prescription rate of ARBs was 12.2%. For each patient, a propensity score, indicating the likelihood of using ARBs during hospitalization or at discharge, was calculated using a non-parsimonious multivariable logistic regression model, and was used to match the patients 1:4, yielding 715 ARB users versus 2,860 ACEI users. The effect of ARBs on in-hospital mortality and 12-month MACE occurrence was assessed using matched logistic and Cox regression models. Compared with ACEIs, ARBs significantly reduced in-hospital mortality(1.3% vs. 3.3%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.379; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.190 to0.756; p = 0.006) and 12-month MACE occurrence (4.6% vs. 6.9%; HR, 0.661; 95% CI, 0.457 to 0.956; p = 0.028). However, the benefit of ARBs on 12-month mortality compared with ACEIs was marginal (4.3% vs. 6.2%; HR, 0.684; 95% CI, 0.467 to 1.002; p = 0.051). Our results suggest that ARBs are not inferior to, and may actually be better than ACEIs in Korean patients with AMI.

Development and Validation of the Nursing Home Minimum Data Set 3.0 Mortality Risk Score (MRS3).

PubMed

Thomas, Kali S; Ogarek, Jessica A; Teno, Joan M; Gozalo, Pedro L; Mor, Vincent

2018-03-05

To develop a score to predict mortality using the Minimum Data Set 3.0 (MDS 3.0) that can be readily calculated from items collected during nursing home (NH) residents' admission assessments. We developed a training cohort of Medicare beneficiaries newly admitted to U.S. NHs during 2012 (N=1,426,815) and a testing cohort from 2013 (N=1,160,964). Data came from the MDS 3.0 assessments linked to the Medicare Beneficiary Summary File. Using the training dataset, we developed a composite MDS 3.0 Mortality Risk Score (MRS3) consisting of 17 clinical items and patients' age groups based on their relation to 30-day mortality. We assessed the calibration and discrimination of the MRS3 in predicting 30-day and 60-day mortality and compared its performance to the Charlson Comorbidity Index and the clinician's assessment of 6-month prognosis measured at admission. The 30-day and 60-day mortality rate for the testing population was 2.8% and 5.6%, respectively. Results from logistic regression models suggest that the MRS3 performed well in predicting death within 30 and 60 days (C-Statistics of 0.744 (95%CL = 0.741, 0.747) and 0.709 (95%CL=0.706, 0.711), respectively). The MRS3 was a superior predictor of mortality compared to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (C-statistics of 0.611 (95%CL=0.607, 0.615) and 0.608 (95%CL=0.605, 0.610)) and the clinicians' assessments of patients' 6-month prognoses (C-statistics of 0.543 (95%CL=0.542, 0.545) and 0.528 (95%CL=0.527, 0.529). The MRS3 is a good predictor of mortality and can be useful in guiding decision-making, informing plans of care, and adjusting for patients' risk of mortality.

Association between patient activity and long-term cardiac death in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators.

PubMed

Zhao, Shuang; Chen, Keping; Su, Yangang; Hua, Wei; Chen, Silin; Liang, Zhaoguang; Xu, Wei; Dai, Yan; Liu, Zhimin; Fan, Xiaohan; Hou, Cuihong; Zhang, Shu

2017-05-01

Background Patient activity (PA) has been demonstrated to predict all-cause mortality. However, the association between PA and cardiac death is unclear. Aims The aims of this study were to determine whether PA can predict cardiac death and what is the cut-off of PA to discriminate cardiac death, as well as the mechanism underlying the relationship between PA and survival in patients with home monitoring. Methods This study retrospectively analysed clinical and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator/cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator device data in 845 patients. Data regarding PA and PP variability during the first 30-60 days of home monitoring were collected, and mean values were calculated. The primary endpoint was cardiac death, and the secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Results The mean PA percentage was 11 ± 5.8%. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, we determined that a PA cut-off value of 7.84% (113 min) can predict cardiac death. During a mean follow-up period of 31.1 ± 12.9 months (ranging from three to 60 months), PA ≤ 7.84% was associated with increased risks of cardiac death in an unadjusted analysis; after adjusting in a multivariate Cox model, the relationship remained significant between PA≤7.84% and cardiac death (hazard ratio = 3.644, 95% confidence interval = 2.424-5.477, p < 0.001). Moreover, a significant correlation was observed between PA and PP variability ( r = 0.601, p < 0.001). Conclusions A baseline PA ≤ 7.84% was associated with a higher risk of cardiac death in patients who have survived more than three months after implantable cardioverter-defibrillator/cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator implantation. PA had a sizable effect on heart rate variability, reflecting autonomic function.

Survival and long-term outcomes in late-onset Pompe disease following alglucosidase alfa treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schoser, Benedikt; Stewart, Andrew; Kanters, Steve; Hamed, Alaa; Jansen, Jeroen; Chan, Keith; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Toscano, Antonio

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed the efficacy of alglucosidase alfa as an enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) on motor and respiratory endpoints in patients with late-onset Pompe disease (LOPD). A previous review evaluated the clinical efficacy and safety of alglucosidase alfa; however, it is difficult to draw inferences from individual studies due to small patient populations, particularly in evaluating the benefit on survival. To evaluate the current evidence on the long-term efficacy of alglucosidase alfa with regard to survival, motor, and respiratory function in patients with LOPD in relation to the natural progression of the disease, a new systematic literature review was performed identifying studies that assessed either mortality, percent predicted forced vital capacity (% FVC), or the 6-min walk test (6MWT) among treated and untreated LOPD patients. Patient overlap was avoided by removing smaller studies or ensuring the use of only one conflicting study per outcome. Mortality was modeled using Poisson models for each treatment group. Outcomes were modeled using first- and second-order fractional polynomial meta-analysis with fixed- and random-effects. Meta-regression was used to explore sources of heterogeneity. Twenty-two publications pertaining to 19 studies/trials were selected, including 438 patients when accounting for overlaps, with the average study duration being 45.7 months. Patients treated with alglucosidase alfa in these studies had a nearly five-fold lower mortality rate than untreated patients (rate ratio: 0.21; 95 % credible interval: 0.11, 0.41). On average, % FVC declined consistently among untreated patients, including a 2.3 % decline after 12 months follow-up and 6.2 % decline after 48 months. This is in contrast to alglucosidase alfa-treated patients, who, on average, improved rapidly, with an increase of 1.4 % FVC after 2 months, followed by a slow regression back to baseline over a three-year period. Nonetheless, the relative difference between those treated and not grew over time, from 4.5 % FVC after 12 months to 6 % FVC after 48 months. In the 6MWT, alglucosidase alfa-treated patients on average had the largest improvement over the first 20 months of treatment of approximately 50 meters increase over baseline, with its substantial stabilization in the following years. By comparison, untreated patients do not show 6MWT improvement over time. Alglucosidase alfa has a beneficial effect in LOPD patients as demonstrated by improvements in survival and ambulation maintained over time, as well as prevention of deterioration in respiratory function.

Twelve-month prostate volume reduction after MRI-guided transurethral ultrasound ablation of the prostate.

PubMed

Bonekamp, David; Wolf, M B; Roethke, M C; Pahernik, S; Hadaschik, B A; Hatiboglu, G; Kuru, T H; Popeneciu, I V; Chin, J L; Billia, M; Relle, J; Hafron, J; Nandalur, K R; Staruch, R M; Burtnyk, M; Hohenfellner, M; Schlemmer, H-P

2018-06-25

To quantitatively assess 12-month prostate volume (PV) reduction based on T2-weighted MRI and immediate post-treatment contrast-enhanced MRI non-perfused volume (NPV), and to compare measurements with predictions of acute and delayed ablation volumes based on MR-thermometry (MR-t), in a central radiology review of the Phase I clinical trial of MRI-guided transurethral ultrasound ablation (TULSA) in patients with localized prostate cancer. Treatment day MRI and 12-month follow-up MRI and biopsy were available for central radiology review in 29 of 30 patients from the published institutional review board-approved, prospective, multi-centre, single-arm Phase I clinical trial of TULSA. Viable PV at 12 months was measured as the remaining PV on T2-weighted MRI, less 12-month NPV, scaled by the fraction of fibrosis in 12-month biopsy cores. Reduction of viable PV was compared to predictions based on the fraction of the prostate covered by the MR-t derived acute thermal ablation volume (ATAV, 55°C isotherm), delayed thermal ablation volume (DTAV, 240 cumulative equivalent minutes at 43°C thermal dose isocontour) and treatment-day NPV. We also report linear and volumetric comparisons between metrics. After TULSA, the median 12-month reduction in viable PV was 88%. DTAV predicted a reduction of 90%. Treatment day NPV predicted only 53% volume reduction, and underestimated ATAV and DTAV by 36% and 51%. Quantitative volumetry of the TULSA phase I MR and biopsy data identifies DTAV (240 CEM43 thermal dose boundary) as a useful predictor of viable prostate tissue reduction at 12 months. Immediate post-treatment NPV underestimates tissue ablation. • MRI-guided transurethral ultrasound ablation (TULSA) achieved an 88% reduction of viable prostate tissue volume at 12 months, in excellent agreement with expectation from thermal dose calculations. • Non-perfused volume on immediate post-treatment contrast-enhanced MRI represents only 64% of the acute thermal ablation volume (ATAV), and reports only 60% (53% instead of 88% achieved) of the reduction in viable prostate tissue volume at 12 months. • MR-thermometry-based predictions of 12-month prostate volume reduction based on 240 cumulative equivalent minute thermal dose volume are in excellent agreement with reduction in viable prostate tissue volume measured on pre- and 12-month post-treatment T2w-MRI.

Association between ambulance diversion and survival among patients with acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Shen, Yu-Chu; Hsia, Renee Y

2011-06-15

Ambulance diversion, a practice in which emergency departments (EDs) are temporarily closed to ambulance traffic, might be problematic for patients experiencing time-sensitive conditions, such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, there is little empirical evidence to show whether diversion is associated with worse patient outcomes. To analyze whether temporary ED closure on the day a patient experiences AMI, as measured by ambulance diversion hours of the nearest ED, is associated with increased mortality rates among patients with AMI. DESIGN, STUDY, AND PARTICIPANTS: A case-crossover design of 13,860 Medicare patients with AMI from 508 zip codes within 4 California counties (Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara) whose admission date was between 2000 and 2005. Data included 100% Medicare claims data that covered admissions between 2000 and 2005, linked with date of death until 2006, and daily ambulance diversion logs from the same 4 counties. Among the hospital universe, 149 EDs were identified as the nearest ED to these patients. The percentage of patients with AMI who died within 7 days, 30 days, 90 days, 9 months, and 1 year from admission (when their nearest ED was not on diversion and when that same ED was exposed to <6, 6 to <12, and ≥12 hours of diversion out of 24 hours on the day of admission). Between 2000 and 2006, the mean (SD) daily diversion duration was 7.9 (6.1) hours. Based on analysis of 11,625 patients admitted to the ED between 2000 and 2005, and whose nearest ED had at least 3 diversion exposure levels (3541, 3357, 2667, and 2060 patients for no exposure, exposure to <6, 6 to <12, and ≥12 hours of diversion, respectively), there were no statistically significant differences in mortality rates between no diversion and exposure to less than 12 hours of diversion. Exposure to 12 or more hours of diversion was associated with higher 30-day mortality vs no diversion status (unadjusted mortality rate, 392 patients [19%] vs 545 patients [15%]; regression adjusted difference, 3.24 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-5.88); higher 90-day mortality (537 patients [26%] vs 762 patients [22%]; 2.89 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.13-5.64); higher 9-month mortality (680 patients [33%] vs 980 patients [28%]; 2.93 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.15-5.71); and higher 1-year mortality (731 patients [35%] vs 1034 patients [29%]; 3.04 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.33-5.75). Among Medicare patients with AMI in 4 populous California counties, exposure to at least 12 hours of diversion by the nearest ED was associated with increased 30-day, 90-day, 9-month, and 1-year mortality.

Outcomes of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS Treatment Program for Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment between 2004-2012

PubMed Central

Odafe, Solomon; Abiri, Oseni; Debem, Henry; Agolory, Simon; Shiraishi, Ray W.; Auld, Andrew F.; Swaminathan, Mahesh; Dokubo, Kainne; Ngige, Evelyn; Asadu, Chukwuemeka; Abatta, Emmanuel; Ellerbrock, Tedd V.

2016-01-01

Background The Nigerian Antiretroviral therapy (ART) program started in 2004 and now ranks among the largest in Africa. However, nationally representative data on outcomes have not been reported. Methods We evaluated retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adults aged ≥15 years who initiated ART during 2004 to 2012. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records at 35 sites selected using probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling. Analyses were weighted and controlled for the complex survey design. The main outcome measures were mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and retention (the proportion alive and on ART). Potential predictors of attrition were assessed using competing risk regression models. Results At ART initiation, 66.4 percent (%) were females, median age was 33 years, median weight 56 kg, median CD4 count 161 cells/mm3, and 47.1% had stage III/IV disease. The percentage of patients retained at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 81.2%, 74.4%, 67.2%, and 61.7%, respectively. Over 10,088 person-years of ART, mortality, LTFU, and overall attrition (mortality, LTFU, and treatment stop) rates were 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7–1.8), 12.3 (95%CI: 8.9–17.0), and 13.9 (95% CI: 10.4–18.5) per 100 person-years (py) respectively. Highest attrition rates of 55.4/100py were witnessed in the first 3 months on ART. Predictors of LTFU included: lower-than-secondary level education (reference: Tertiary), care in North-East and South-South regions (reference: North-Central), presence of moderate/severe anemia, symptomatic functional status, and baseline weight <45kg. Predictor of mortality was WHO stage higher than stage I. Male sex, severe anemia, and care in a small clinic were associated with both mortality and LTFU. Conclusion Moderate/Advanced HIV disease was predictive of attrition; earlier ART initiation could improve program outcomes. Retention interventions targeting men and those with lower levels of education are needed. Further research to understand geographic and clinic size variations with outcome is warranted. PMID:27829033

Trends and spatial distribution of deaths of children aged 12-60 months in São Paulo, Brazil, 1980-98.

PubMed Central

Antunes, José Leopoldo Ferreira; Waldman, Eliseu Alves

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in the mortality of children aged 12-60 months and to perform spatial data analysis of its distribution at the inner city district level in São Paulo from 1980 to 1998. METHODS: Official mortality data were analysed in relation to the underlying causes of death. The population of children aged 12-60 months, disaggregated by sex and age, was estimated for each year. Educational levels, income, employment status, and other socioeconomic indices were also assessed. Statistical Package for Social Sciences software was used for the statistical processing of time series. The Cochrane-Orcutt procedure of generalized least squares regression analysis was used to estimate the regression parameters with control of first-order autocorrelation. Spatial data analysis employed the discrimination of death rates and socioeconomic indices at the inner city district level. For classifying area-level death rates the method of K-means cluster analysis was used. Spatial correlation between variables was analysed by the simultaneous autoregressive regression method. FINDINGS: There was a steady decline in death rates during the 1980s at an average rate of 3.08% per year, followed by a levelling off. Infectious diseases remained the major cause of mortality, accounting for 43.1% of deaths during the last three years of the study. Injuries accounted for 16.5% of deaths. Mortality rates at the area level clearly demonstrated inequity in the city's health profile: there was an increasing difference between the rich and the underprivileged social strata in this respect. CONCLUSION: The overall mortality rate among children aged 12-60 months dropped by almost 30% during the study period. Most of the decline happened during the 1980s. Many people still live in a state of deprivation in underserved areas. Time-series and spatial data analysis provided indications of potential value in the planning of social policies promoting well-being, through the identification of factors affecting child survival and the regions with the worst health profiles, to which programmes and resources should be preferentially directed. PMID:12077615

Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

PubMed

Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

2018-01-03

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P < 0.001), whereas the observed morbidity of Centre 3 was higher than the predicted morbidity (observed 41.1% vs predicted 24.3%, P < 0.001). Centre 1 had higher observed mortality when compared with the predicted mortality (3.6% vs 2.1%, P = 0.005), whereas Centre 2 had an observed mortality rate significantly lower than the predicted mortality rate (1.2% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). Centre 3 had an observed mortality rate in line with the predicted mortality rate (observed 1.4% vs predicted 2.4%, P = 0.17). The observed mortality rates in the patients with major complications were 30.8% in Centre 1 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.8%, P < 0.001), 8.2% in Centre 2 (versus predicted mortality rate 4.1%, P = 0.030) and 9.0% in Centre 3 (versus predicted mortality rate 3.5%, P = 0.014). The Eurolung models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Prognostic significance of platelet count changes during hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Gorelik, Oleg; Izhakian, Shimon; Barchel, Dana; Almoznino-Sarafian, Dorit; Tzur, Irma; Swarka, Muhareb; Beberashvili, Ilia; Feldman, Leonid; Cohen, Natan; Shteinshnaider, Miriam

2017-06-01

The prognostic significance of platelet count (PC) changes during hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has not been investigated. For 976 adults, clinical data during hospitalization for CAP and all-cause mortality following discharge were compared according to ΔPC (PC on discharge minus PC on admission): groups A (declining PC, ΔPC < -50 × 10 9 /l), B (stable PC, ΔPC ± 50 × 10 9 /l), and C (rising PC, ΔPC >50 × 10 9 /l), and according to the presence of thrombocytopenia, normal PC, and thrombocytosis on admission/discharge. Groups A, B, and C comprised 7.9%, 46.5%, and 45.6% of patients, respectively. On hospital admission/discharge, thrombocytopenia, normal PC, and thrombocytosis were observed in 12.8%/6.4%, 84.1%/84.4%, and 3.1%/9.2% of patients, respectively. The respective 90-day, 3-year, and total (median follow-up of 54 months) mortality rates were significantly higher: in group A (40.3%, 63.6%, and 72.7%), compared to groups B (12.3%, 31.5%, and 39.0%) and C (4.9%, 17.3%, and 25.4%), p < 0.001; and in patients with thrombocytopenia at discharge (27.4%, 48.4%, and 51.6%), compared to those with normal PC (10.2%, 26.9%, and 35.4%) and thrombocytosis (8.9%, 17.8%, and 24.4%) at discharge (p < 0.001). Mortality rates were comparable among groups with thrombocytopenia, normal PC, and thrombocytosis at admission (p = 0.6). In the entire sample, each 100 × 10 9 /l increment of ΔPC strongly predicted lower mortality (p < 0.001, relative risk 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.83). In conclusion, PC changes are common among CAP inpatients. Rising PC throughout hospitalization is a powerful predictor of better survival, while declining PC predicts poor outcome. Evaluation of PC changes during hospitalization for CAP may provide useful prognostic information.

Delirium in acute stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Qiyun; Presutti, Roseanna; Selchen, Daniel; Saposnik, Gustavo

2012-03-01

Delirium is common in the early stage after hospitalization for an acute stroke. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the outcomes of acute stroke patients with delirium. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library databases, and PsychInfo for relevant articles published in English up to September 2011. We included observational studies for review. Two reviewers independently assessed studies to determine eligibility, validity, and quality. The primary outcome was inpatient mortality and secondary outcomes were mortality at 12 months, institutionalization, and length of hospital stay. Among 78 eligible studies, 10 studies (n=2004 patients) met the inclusion criteria. Stroke patients with delirium had higher inpatient mortality (OR, 4.71; 95% CI, 1.85-11.96) and mortality at 12 months (OR, 4.91; 95% CI, 3.18-7.6) compared to nondelirious patients. Patients with delirium also tended to stay longer in hospital compared to those who did not have delirium (mean difference, 9.39 days; 95% CI, 6.67-12.11) and were more likely to be discharged to a nursing homes or other institutions (OR, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.21-5.21). Stroke patients with development of delirium have unfavorable outcomes, particularly higher mortality, longer hospitalizations, and a greater degree of dependence after discharge. Early recognition and prevention of delirium may improve outcomes in stroke patients.

ESR1 Promoter Hypermethylation Does Not Predict Atypia in RPFNA nor Persistent Atypia after 12 Months Tamoxifen Chemoprevention

PubMed Central

Baker, Joseph C.; Ostrander, Julie H.; Lem, Siya; Broadwater, Gloria; Bean, Gregory R.; D'Amato, Nicholas C.; Goldenberg, Vanessa K.; Rowell, Craig; Ibarra-Drendall, Catherine; Grant, Tracey; Pilie, Patrick G.; Vasilatos, Shauna N.; Troch, Michelle M.; Scott, Victoria; Wilke, Lee G.; Paisie, Carolyn; Rabiner, Sarah M.; Torres-Hernandez, Alejandro; Zalles, Carola M.; Seewaldt, Victoria L.

2009-01-01

Purpose Currently, we lack biomarkers to predict whether high-risk women with mammary atypia will respond to tamoxifen chemoprevention. Experimental Design Thirty-four women with cytologic mammary atypia from the Duke University High-Risk clinic were offered tamoxifen chemoprevention. We tested whether ESR1 promoter hypermethylation and/or estrogen receptor (ER) protein expression by immunohistochemistry predicted persistent atypia in 18 women who were treated with tamoxifen for 12 months and in 16 untreated controls. Results We observed a statistically significant decrease in the Masood score of women on tamoxifen chemoprevention for 12 months compared with control women. This was a significant interaction effect of time (0, 6, and 12 months) and treatment group (tamoxifen versus control) P = 0.0007. However, neither ESR1 promoter hypermethylation nor low ER expression predicted persistent atypia in Random Periareolar Fine Needle Aspiration after 12 months tamoxifen prevention. Conclusions Results from this single institution pilot study provide evidence that, unlike for invasive breast cancer, ESR1 promoter hypermethylation and/or low ER expression is not a reliable marker of tamoxifen-resistant atypia. PMID:18708376

Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

PubMed Central

Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Mavalankar, Dileep; Nori-Sarma, Amruta; Rajiva, Ajit; Dutta, Priya; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Knowlton, Kim; Hess, Jeremy J.; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Deol, Bhaskar; Bhaskar, Priya Shekhar; Hess, Jeremy; Jaiswal, Anjali; Khosla, Radhika; Knowlton, Kim; Mavalankar, Mavalankar; Rajiva, Ajit; Sarma, Amruta; Sheffield, Perry

2014-01-01

Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001), May (r = 0.77, p<0.001), and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05). During a period of more intense heat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03–2.21] applying reference periods (May 12–18, 2010) from various years. Conclusion The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June. PMID:24633076

Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure and Respiratory, Cancer, and Cardiovascular Mortality in Older US Adults.

PubMed

Pun, Vivian C; Kazemiparkouhi, Fatemeh; Manjourides, Justin; Suh, Helen H

2017-10-15

The impact of chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5)) on respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality is poorly understood. In a cohort of 18.9 million Medicare beneficiaries (4.2 million deaths) living across the conterminous United States between 2000 and 2008, we examined the association between chronic PM2.5 exposure and cause-specific mortality. We evaluated confounding through adjustment for neighborhood behavioral covariates and decomposition of PM2.5 into 2 spatiotemporal scales. We found significantly positive associations of 12-month moving average PM2.5 exposures (per 10-μg/m3 increase) with respiratory, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia mortality, with risk ratios ranging from 1.10 to 1.24. We also found significant PM2.5-associated elevated risks for cardiovascular and lung cancer mortality. Risk ratios generally increased with longer moving averages; for example, an elevation in 60-month moving average PM2.5 exposures was linked to 1.33 times the lung cancer mortality risk (95% confidence interval: 1.24, 1.40), as compared with 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.15) for 12-month moving average exposures. Observed associations were robust in multivariable models, although evidence of unmeasured confounding remained. In this large cohort of US elderly, we provide important new evidence that long-term PM2.5 exposure is significantly related to increased mortality from respiratory disease, lung cancer, and cardiovascular disease. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Independent and combined effects of maternal smoking and solid fuel on infant and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Akinyemi, Joshua O; Adedini, Sunday A; Wandera, Stephen O; Odimegwu, Clifford O

2016-12-01

To estimate the independent and combined risks of infant and child mortality associated with maternal smoking and use of solid fuel in sub-Saharan Africa. Pooled weighted data on 143 602 under-five children in the most recent demographic and health surveys for 15 sub-Saharan African countries were analysed. The synthetic cohort life table technique and Cox proportional hazard models were employed to investigate the effect of maternal smoking and solid cooking fuel on infant (age 0-11 months) and child (age 12-59 months) mortality. Socio-economic and other confounding variables were included as controls. The distribution of the main explanatory variable in households was as follows: smoking + solid fuel - 4.6%; smoking + non-solid fuel - 0.22%; no smoking + solid fuel - 86.9%; and no smoking + non-solid fuel - 8.2%. The highest infant mortality rate was recorded among children exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (72 per 1000 live births); the child mortality rate was estimated to be 54 per 1000 for this group. In full multivariate models, the risk of infant death was 71% higher among those exposed to maternal smoking + solid fuel (HR = 1.71, CI: 1.29-2.28). For ages 12 to 59 months, the risk of death was 99% higher (HR = 1.99, CI: 1.28-3.08). Combined exposures to cigarette smoke and solid fuel increase the risks of infant and child mortality. Mothers of under-five children need to be educated about the danger of smoking while innovative approaches are needed to reduce the mortality risks associated with solid cooking fuel. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of Malnutrition Risk after Liver Transplantation Using the Nutritional Screening Tools

PubMed Central

Lim, Hee-Sook; Kim, Hyung-Chul; Park, Yoon-Hyung

2015-01-01

Malnutrition is a common problem in patients with end-stage liver disease requiring liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to evaluate nutritional status by using nutritional screening tools [Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA)] in patients before and after liver transplantation. We analyzed medical record, blood test, nutrient intake and malnutrition rate just before transplantation and at discharge, and at 3, 6, 12 months after transplantation respectively. Initially 33 patients enrolled as study subjects and finally 28 patients completed the study. Nutrients intake such as energy, fiber, calcium, potassium, vitamin C, and folate were insufficient at 12 months after transplantation. The rates of malnutrition before transplantation were very high, reported at 81.8% for the NRS 2002, 87.9% for the MUST, and 84.8% for the SGA. By 12 months after operation, malnutrition rates reported at NRS, MUST and SGA had decreased to 6.1%, 10.7%, and 10.7%, respectively. Sensitivity was 87.1% for the NRS 2002, 82.0% for the MUST, and 92.0% for the SGA. Of these screening tools the SGA was the highest sensitive tool that predict the risk of mortality in malnutrition patients who received transplantation. Further studies on nutritional status of patients and proper tools for nutrition intervention are needed to provide adequate nutritional care for patients. PMID:26566519

Evaluation of Malnutrition Risk after Liver Transplantation Using the Nutritional Screening Tools.

PubMed

Lim, Hee-Sook; Kim, Hyung-Chul; Park, Yoon-Hyung; Kim, Soon-Kyung

2015-10-01

Malnutrition is a common problem in patients with end-stage liver disease requiring liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to evaluate nutritional status by using nutritional screening tools [Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA)] in patients before and after liver transplantation. We analyzed medical record, blood test, nutrient intake and malnutrition rate just before transplantation and at discharge, and at 3, 6, 12 months after transplantation respectively. Initially 33 patients enrolled as study subjects and finally 28 patients completed the study. Nutrients intake such as energy, fiber, calcium, potassium, vitamin C, and folate were insufficient at 12 months after transplantation. The rates of malnutrition before transplantation were very high, reported at 81.8% for the NRS 2002, 87.9% for the MUST, and 84.8% for the SGA. By 12 months after operation, malnutrition rates reported at NRS, MUST and SGA had decreased to 6.1%, 10.7%, and 10.7%, respectively. Sensitivity was 87.1% for the NRS 2002, 82.0% for the MUST, and 92.0% for the SGA. Of these screening tools the SGA was the highest sensitive tool that predict the risk of mortality in malnutrition patients who received transplantation. Further studies on nutritional status of patients and proper tools for nutrition intervention are needed to provide adequate nutritional care for patients.

Cytokine activation is predictive of mortality in Zambian patients with AIDS-related diarrhoea.

PubMed

Zulu, Isaac; Hassan, Ghaniah; Njobvu R N, Lungowe; Dhaliwal, Winnie; Sianongo, Sandie; Kelly, Paul

2008-11-13

Mortality in Zambian AIDS patients is high, especially in patients with diarrhoea, and there is still unacceptably high mortality in Zambian patients just starting anti-retroviral therapy. We set out to determine if high concentrations of serum cytokines correlate with mortality. Serum samples from 30 healthy controls (HIV seropositive and seronegative) and 50 patients with diarrhoea (20 of whom died within 6 weeks) were analysed. Concentrations of tumour necrosis factor receptor p55 (TNFR p55), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-12, interferon (IFN)-gamma and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured by ELISA, and correlated with mortality after 6 weeks follow-up. Apart from IL-12, concentrations of all cytokines, TNFR p55 and CRP increased with worsening severity of disease, showing highly statistically significant trends. In a multivariable analysis high TNFR p55, IFN-gamma, CRP and low CD4 count (CD4 count <100) were predictive of mortality. Although nutritional status (assessed by body mass index, BMI) was predictive in univariate analysis, it was not an independent predictor in multivariate analysis. High serum concentrations of TNFR p55, IFN-gamma, CRP and low CD4 count correlated with disease severity and short-term mortality in HIV-infected Zambian adults with diarrhoea. These factors were better predictors of survival than BMI. Understanding the cause of TNFR p55, IFN-gamma and CRP elevation may be useful in development of interventions to reduce mortality in AIDS patients with chronic diarrhoea in Africa.

Relation between troponin T concentration and mortality in patients presenting with an acute stroke: observational study

PubMed Central

James, P; Ellis, C J; Whitlock, R M L; McNeil, A R; Henley, J; Anderson, N E

2000-01-01

Objective To assess whether a raised serum troponin T concentration would be an independent predictor of death in patients with an acute ischaemic stroke. Design Observational study. Setting Auckland Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand. Subjects All 181 patients with an acute ischaemic stroke admitted over nine months in 1997-8, from a total of 8057 patients admitted to the acute medical service. Main outcome measures Blood samples for measuring troponin T concentration were collected 12-72 hours after admission; other variables previously associated with severity of stroke were also recorded and assessed as independent predictors of inpatient mortality. Results Troponin T concentration was raised (>0.1 μg/l) in 17% (30) of patients admitted with an acute ischaemic stroke. Thirty one patients died in hospital (12/30 (40%) patients with a raised troponin T concentration v 19/151 (13%) patients with a normal concentration (relative risk 3.2 (95% confidence 1.7 to 5.8; P=0.0025)). Of 17 possible predictors of death, assessed in a multivariate stepwise model, only a raised troponin T concentration (P=0.0002), age (P=0.0008), and an altered level of consciousness at presentation (P=0.0074) independently predicted an adverse outcome. Conclusions Serum troponin T concentration at hospital admission is a powerful predictor of mortality in patients admitted with an acute ischaemic stroke. PMID:10834890

Evaluation of the DAVROS (Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care) risk-adjustment model as a quality indicator for healthcare

PubMed Central

Wilson, Richard; Goodacre, Steve W; Klingbajl, Marcin; Kelly, Anne-Maree; Rainer, Tim; Coats, Tim; Holloway, Vikki; Townend, Will; Crane, Steve

2014-01-01

Background and objective Risk-adjusted mortality rates can be used as a quality indicator if it is assumed that the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality can be attributed to the quality of healthcare (ie, the model has attributional validity). The Development And Validation of Risk-adjusted Outcomes for Systems of emergency care (DAVROS) model predicts 7-day mortality in emergency medical admissions. We aimed to test this assumption by evaluating the attributional validity of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Methods We selected cases that had the greatest discrepancy between observed mortality and predicted probability of mortality from seven hospitals involved in validation of the DAVROS risk-adjustment model. Reviewers at each hospital assessed hospital records to determine whether the discrepancy between predicted and actual mortality could be explained by the healthcare provided. Results We received 232/280 (83%) completed review forms relating to 179 unexpected deaths and 53 unexpected survivors. The healthcare system was judged to have potentially contributed to 10/179 (8%) of the unexpected deaths and 26/53 (49%) of the unexpected survivors. Failure of the model to appropriately predict risk was judged to be responsible for 135/179 (75%) of the unexpected deaths and 2/53 (4%) of the unexpected survivors. Some 10/53 (19%) of the unexpected survivors died within a few months of the 7-day period of model prediction. Conclusions We found little evidence that deaths occurring in patients with a low predicted mortality from risk-adjustment could be attributed to the quality of healthcare provided. PMID:23605036

Variation in PPP3CC Genotype Is Associated with Long-Term Recovery after Severe Brain Injury.

PubMed

Osier, Nicole D; Bales, James W; Pugh, Bunny; Shin, Samuel; Wyrobek, Julie; Puccio, Ava M; Okonkwo, David O; Ren, Dianxu; Alexander, Sheila; Conley, Yvette P; Dixon, C Edward

2017-01-01

After experimental traumatic brain injury (TBI), calcineurin is upregulated; blocking calcineurin is associated with improved outcomes. In humans, variation in the calcineurin A-gamma gene (PPP3CC) has been associated with neuropsychiatric disorders, though any role in TBI recovery remains unknown. This study examines associations between PPP3CC genotype and mortality, as well as gross functional status assessed at admission using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and at 3, 6, and 12 months after severe TBI using the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS). The following tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) in PPP3CC were genotyped: rs2443504, rs2461491, rs2469749, and rs10108011. The rs2443504 AA genotype was univariately associated with GCS (p = 0.022), GOS at 3, 6, and 12 months (p = 0.002, p = 0.034, and p = 0.004, respectively), and mortality (p = 0.007). In multivariate analysis controlling for age, sex, and GCS, the AA genotype of rs2443504 was associated with GOS at 3 (p = 0.02), and 12 months (p = 0.01), with a trend toward significance at 6 months (p = 0.05); the AA genotype also was associated with mortality in the multivariate model (p = 0.04). Further work is warranted to better understand the role of calcineurin, as well as the genes encoding it and their relevance to outcomes after brain injury.

Nationwide measles vaccination campaign for children aged 6 months-12 years--Afghanistan, 2002.

PubMed

2003-04-25

The public health infrastructure in Afghanistan has been devastated by 23 years of civil war, and both the infant mortality rate (165 per 1,000 live-born infants) and the mortality rate for children aged <5 years (256 per 1,000 live-born infants) are among the highest in the world. The major causes of death among children aged <10 years are diarrhea (32%), measles (25%), respiratory tract infections (13%), and other causes (30%), including malnutrition, scurvy, chronic diseases, and fever of unknown origin. Measles accounts for an estimated 30,000-35,000 deaths each year in Afghanistan. To reduce measles-related mortality, during 2002, the Ministry of Health (MoH) of the Interim Government of Afghanistan, with the support of international organizations, organized a nationwide measles vaccination campaign for children aged 6 months-12 years. This report describes the planning, implementation, and impact of this campaign. The findings suggest that the campaign had a major impact on reducing measles-related mortality. Similar campaigns might be feasible in countries affected by complex emergencies.

Long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in Madagascar.

PubMed

Nagai, Shuko; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Rabesandratana, Norotiana; Andrianarimanana, Diavolana; Nakayama, Takeo; Mori, Rintaro

2011-12-01

To examine the long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for relatively stable low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in a resource-limited country. A randomized controlled trial with long-term follow-up was performed in LBW infants in Madagascar. Earlier continuous KMC (intervention group) was initiated as soon as possible within 24 h postbirth, and later continuous KMC (control group: conventional care) was initiated after complete stabilization. Outcome measures were mortality or readmission, nutritional indicators at 6-12 months postbirth and feeding condition at 6 months postbirth (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00531492). A total of 72 infants were followed for mortality or readmission at 6-12 months postbirth. There was no difference between the two groups (7/36 vs. 7/36, Risk ratio (RR), 1.00; 95% CIs, 0.39-2.56; p = 1.00). The proportion of exclusive breast feeding (EBF) at 6 months postbirth was significantly higher with earlier KMC than later KMC (12/29 vs. 4/26; RR 2.69; 95% CIs, 1.00-7.31; p = 0.04). There were no differences in nutritional indicators between the two groups at 6-12 months postbirth. Earlier initiated continuous KMC results in a significantly higher proportion of EBF at 6 months postbirth. Further larger-scale long-term evaluations of earlier initiated continuous KMC for LBW infants are needed. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Contribution of Maternal Antiretroviral Therapy and Breastfeeding to 24-Month Survival in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Exposed Uninfected Children: An Individual Pooled Analysis of African and Asian Studies.

PubMed

Arikawa, Shino; Rollins, Nigel; Jourdain, Gonzague; Humphrey, Jean; Kourtis, Athena P; Hoffman, Irving; Essex, Max; Farley, Tim; Coovadia, Hoosen M; Gray, Glenda; Kuhn, Louise; Shapiro, Roger; Leroy, Valériane; Bollinger, Robert C; Onyango-Makumbi, Carolyne; Lockman, Shahin; Marquez, Carina; Doherty, Tanya; Dabis, François; Mandelbrot, Laurent; Le Coeur, Sophie; Rolland, Matthieu; Joly, Pierre; Newell, Marie-Louise; Becquet, Renaud

2018-05-17

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected pregnant women increasingly receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). Studies suggest HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) children face higher mortality than HIV-unexposed children, but most evidence relates to the pre-ART era, breastfeeding of limited duration, and considerable maternal mortality. Maternal ART and prolonged breastfeeding while on ART may improve survival, although this has not been reliably quantified. Individual data on 19 219 HEU children from 21 PMTCT trials/cohorts undertaken from 1995 to 2015 in Africa and Asia were pooled to estimate the association between 24-month mortality and maternal/infant factors, using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted attributable fractions of risks computed using the predict function in the R package "frailtypack" were used to estimate the relative contribution of risk factors to overall mortality. Cumulative incidence of death was 5.5% (95% confidence interval, 5.1-5.9) by age 24 months. Low birth weight (LBW <2500 g, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR, 2.9), no breastfeeding (aHR, 2.5), and maternal death (aHR, 11.1) were significantly associated with increased mortality. Maternal ART (aHR, 0.5) was significantly associated with lower mortality. At the population level, LBW accounted for 16.2% of 24-month mortality, never breastfeeding for 10.8%, mother not receiving ART for 45.6%, and maternal death for 4.3%; combined, these factors explained 63.6% of deaths by age 24 months. Survival of HEU children could be substantially improved if public health practices provided all HIV-infected mothers with ART and supported optimal infant feeding and care for LBW neonates.

Do developmental milestones at 4, 8, 12 and 24 months predict IQ at 5-6 years old? Results of the EDEN mother-child cohort.

PubMed

Peyre, Hugo; Charkaluk, Marie-Laure; Forhan, Anne; Heude, Barbara; Ramus, Franck

2017-03-01

The present study aims: (i) to determine how well developmental milestones at 4, 8, 12 and 24 months may predict IQ at 5-6 years old, (ii) to identify cognitive domains during the first two years that best predict later IQ and (iii) to determine whether children with IQ in the normal range at 5-6 years old may differ from disabled (IQ < 70) and gifted children (IQ > 130) with regard to their early cognitive development. The main developmental milestones were collected through self-administered questionnaires rated by parents at 4, 8, 12 and 24 months and through parental questionnaires administered by a trained interviewer and questionnaires completed following a medical examination at 12 months. These questionnaires were derived from the Brunet-Lézine Psychomotor Development Scale and they addressed several cognitive domains (gross and fine motor skills, language and socialization). (i) Developmental milestones predict a substantial part of the later IQ variance from 24 months (R 2  ∼ 20%). (ii) Early language skills more strongly predict later IQ than the other cognitive domains. (iii) Several cognitive domains, but particularly language skills, predict disabled children at 5-6 years old (from the age of 8 months) and gifted children (from the age of 12 months). The present study provides valuable information for early developmental assessment and could contribute to a better understanding of intellectual development. Copyright © 2016 European Paediatric Neurology Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Size-related mortality due to gnathiid isopod micropredation correlates with settlement size in coral reef fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grutter, A. S.; Blomberg, S. P.; Fargher, B.; Kuris, A. M.; McCormick, M. I.; Warner, R. R.

2017-06-01

The transition between the planktonic and the benthic habitat is a critical period for the larvae of many demersal marine organisms. Understanding the potential constraints on the timing of this habitat transition, called settlement, is important to understanding their biology. Size-specific mortality can set the limits on lifestyle and help explain ontogenetic habitat shifts. We examined whether size-based mortality risks after settlement may include micropredation by ectoparasites by testing whether survival of settlement-stage fish varies with fish size when exposed to a reef-associated micropredator. Fish (14 species) were exposed to one blood-sucking gnathiid isopod overnight, with appropriate controls; gnathiid feeding success and survival, and fish mortality were recorded relative to fish size. After adjusting for fish relatedness, we found the relationship between fish mortality and size differed with gnathiid exposure: for gnathiid-exposed fish, the mean mortality of the smallest fish was much higher (57%) than unexposed controls (10%), and decreased to 0% for fish >12 mm standard length (SL); mortality was almost nil in controls. Thus, a predicted optimal size to switch habitat and reduce mortality risk from micropredation should be >12 mm SL. We then asked what species might be at greater risk and if the steep increase in survival at 12 mm SL might coincide with settlement at larger sizes among fishes. Across 102 other species (32 families), 61% settled at ≥12 mm SL. After adjusting for relatedness, mean fish settlement size was 15.0 mm and this was not significantly different from 12 mm. Thus, settlement size clusters around the minimum fish size threshold our gnathiid experiment predicted would be large enough to survive a gnathiid encounter. These results suggest micropredators may contribute to size-selective mortality during settlement processes and are consistent with the hypothesis that the pelagic phase provides fish an escape from certain micropredators.

Prognostic value of low and high ankle-brachial index in hospitalized medical patients.

PubMed

Pasqualini, Leonella; Schillaci, Giuseppe; Pirro, Matteo; Vaudo, Gaetano; Leli, Christian; Colella, Renato; Innocente, Salvatore; Ciuffetti, Giovanni; Mannarino, Elmo

2012-04-01

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is frequently underdiagnosed in the clinical practice, leading to a lack of opportunity to detect subjects at a high risk for cardiovascular (CV) death. The ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI) represents a noninvasive, objective tool to diagnose PAD and to predict adverse outcome. ABI was determined by means of Doppler velocimetry, in 707 patients, aged 50 years or older, consecutively hospitalized in an internal medicine ward, who were followed-up for at least 12 months in order to assess all-cause and CV mortality. Symptomatic PAD affected 8% of the population while the prevalence of PAD, defined as ABI <0.90, was 29%; high ABI (>1.40) was found in 8% of the patients. After a mean follow-up period of 1.6 years, both low and high ABI were independently associated with CV mortality with a hazard ratio of 1.99 (p=0.016) for low and 2.13 (p=0.04) for high ABI, compared with normal ABI (0.90-1.40). High ABI also independently predicted all-cause mortality with a hazard ratio of 1.77 (p=0.04). ABI measurement reveals a large number of individuals with asymptomatic PAD among those hospitalized in an internal medicine department. An increased mortality was observed in patients with both low and high ABI. Hospital admission for any reason may serve as an opportunity to detect PAD and start appropriate preventive actions. Copyright © 2011 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the GRACE Risk score for hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome in the Arab Middle East.

PubMed

Yusufali, Afzalhussein; Zubaid, Mohammad; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim; Alsheikh-Ali, Alawi A; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Al Suwaidi, Jassim; AlMahmeed, Wael; Rashed, Wafa; Sulaiman, Kadhim; Amin, Haitham

2011-07-01

Our objective was to validate the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for in-hospital mortality in a Middle Eastern acute coronary syndrome (ACS) population enrolled in the Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events (Gulf RACE). Out of 8176, unselected, consecutive patients with ACS, during 6 months in 2006 and 2007 from 63 hospitals in 6 Arab countries in the Middle East Gulf region, 7709 (94.3%) with available data were included. The main outcome measures were discriminatory performance (using C-index) and calibration of the GRACE risk score (in-hospital mortality predicted by GRACE risk score versus the actual mortality). In-hospital mortality in the Gulf RACE was 3.09% (n = 238). The discriminatory performance of the GRACE risk scores in the Gulf RACE was good overall (C-index = 0.86). Observed and predicted risk corresponded well in each stratum of risk of in-hospital mortality. This suggests its suitability for clinical use in this patient population.

Cause, timing, and location of death in the Single Ventricle Reconstruction trial.

PubMed

Ohye, Richard G; Schonbeck, Julie V; Eghtesady, Pirooz; Laussen, Peter C; Pizarro, Christian; Shrader, Peter; Frank, Deborah U; Graham, Eric M; Hill, Kevin D; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Kanter, Kirk R; Kirsh, Joel A; Lambert, Linda M; Lewis, Alan B; Ravishankar, Chitra; Tweddell, James S; Williams, Ismee A; Pearson, Gail D

2012-10-01

The Single Ventricle Reconstruction trial randomized 555 subjects with a single right ventricle undergoing the Norwood procedure at 15 North American centers to receive either a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt or right ventricle-to-pulmonary artery shunt. Results demonstrated a rate of death or cardiac transplantation by 12 months postrandomization of 36% for the modified Blalock-Taussig shunt and 26% for the right ventricle-to-pulmonary artery shunt, consistent with other publications. Despite this high mortality rate, little is known about the circumstances surrounding these deaths. There were 164 deaths within 12 months postrandomization. A committee adjudicated all deaths for cause and recorded the timing, location, and other factors for each event. The most common cause of death was cardiovascular (42%), followed by unknown cause (24%) and multisystem organ failure (7%). The median age at death for subjects dying during the 12 months was 1.6 months (interquartile range, 0.6 to 3.7 months), with the highest number of deaths occurring during hospitalization related to the Norwood procedure. The most common location of death was at a Single Ventricle Reconstruction trial hospital (74%), followed by home (13%). There were 29 sudden, unexpected deaths (18%), although in retrospect, 12 were preceded by a prodrome. In infants with a single right ventricle undergoing staged repair, the majority of deaths within 12 months of the procedure are due to cardiovascular causes, occur in a hospital, and within the first few months of life. Increased understanding of the circumstances surrounding the deaths of these single ventricle patients may reduce the high mortality rate. Copyright © 2012 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Pre-Kidney Transplant Lower Extremity Impairment and Post-Kidney Transplant Mortality.

PubMed

Nastasi, A J; McAdams-DeMarco, M A; Schrack, J; Ying, H; Olorundare, I; Warsame, F; Mountford, A; Haugen, C E; González Fernández, M; Norman, S P; Segev, D L

2018-01-01

Prediction models for post-kidney transplantation mortality have had limited success (C-statistics ≤0.70). Adding objective measures of potentially modifiable factors may improve prediction and, consequently, kidney transplant (KT) survival through intervention. The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) is an easily administered objective test of lower extremity function consisting of three parts (balance, walking speed, chair stands), each with scores of 0-4, for a composite score of 0-12, with higher scores indicating better function. SPPB performance and frailty (Fried frailty phenotype) were assessed at admission for KT in a prospective cohort of 719 KT recipients at Johns Hopkins Hospital (8/2009 to 6/2016) and University of Michigan (2/2013 to 12/2016). The independent associations between SPPB impairment (SPPB composite score ≤10) and composite score with post-KT mortality were tested using adjusted competing risks models treating graft failure as a competing risk. The 5-year posttransplantation mortality for impaired recipients was 20.6% compared to 4.5% for unimpaired recipients (p < 0.001). Impaired recipients had a 2.30-fold (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-4.74, p = 0.02) increased risk of postkidney transplantation mortality compared to unimpaired recipients. Each one-point decrease in SPPB score was independently associated with a 1.19-fold (95% CI 1.09-1.30, p < 0.001) higher risk of post-KT mortality. SPPB-derived lower extremity function is a potentially highly useful and modifiable objective measure for pre-KT risk prediction. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Influenza Excess Mortality from 1950–2000 in Tropical Singapore

PubMed Central

Lee, Vernon J.; Yap, Jonathan; Ong, Jimmy B. S.; Chan, Kwai-Peng; Lin, Raymond T. P.; Chan, Siew Pang; Goh, Kee Tai; Leo, Yee-Sin; Chen, Mark I-Cheng

2009-01-01

Introduction Tropical regions have been shown to exhibit different influenza seasonal patterns compared to their temperate counterparts. However, there is little information about the burden of annual tropical influenza epidemics across time, and the relationship between tropical influenza epidemics compared with other regions. Methods Data on monthly national mortality and population was obtained from 1947 to 2003 in Singapore. To determine excess mortality for each month, we used a moving average analysis for each month from 1950 to 2000. From 1972, influenza viral surveillance data was available. Before 1972, information was obtained from serial annual government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and press articles. Results The influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968 resulted in substantial mortality. In addition, there were 20 other time points with significant excess mortality. Of the 12 periods with significant excess mortality post-1972, only one point (1988) did not correspond to a recorded influenza activity. For the 8 periods with significant excess mortality periods before 1972 excluding the pandemic years, 2 years (1951 and 1953) had newspaper reports of increased pneumonia deaths. Excess mortality could be observed in almost all periods with recorded influenza outbreaks but did not always exceed the 95% confidence limits of the baseline mortality rate. Conclusion Influenza epidemics were the likely cause of most excess mortality periods in post-war tropical Singapore, although not every epidemic resulted in high mortality. It is therefore important to have good influenza surveillance systems in place to detect influenza activity. PMID:19956611

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Associations between long-term exposure to chemical constituents of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality in Medicare enrollees in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Dominici, Francesca; Wang, Yun; Coull, Brent A; Bell, Michelle L

2015-05-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with higher mortality. Evidence regarding contributions of PM2.5 constituents is inconclusive. We assembled a data set of 12.5 million Medicare enrollees (≥ 65 years of age) to determine which PM2.5 constituents are a) associated with mortality controlling for previous-year PM2.5 total mass (main effect); and b) elevated in locations exhibiting stronger associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (effect modification). For 518 PM2.5 monitoring locations (eastern United States, 2000-2006), we calculated monthly mortality rates, monthly long-term (previous 1-year average) PM2.5, and 7-year averages (2000-2006) of major PM2.5 constituents [elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon matter (OCM), sulfate (SO42-), silicon (Si), nitrate (NO3-), and sodium (Na)] and community-level variables. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate location-specific mortality rates associated with previous-year PM2.5 (model level 1) and identify constituents that contributed to the spatial variability of mortality, and constituents that modified associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (model level 2), controlling for community-level confounders. One-standard deviation (SD) increases in 7-year average EC, Si, and NO3- concentrations were associated with 1.3% [95% posterior interval (PI): 0.3, 2.2], 1.4% (95% PI: 0.6, 2.4), and 1.2% (95% PI: 0.4, 2.1) increases in monthly mortality, controlling for previous-year PM2.5. Associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality were stronger in combination with 1-SD increases in SO42- and Na. Long-term exposures to PM2.5 and several constituents were associated with mortality in the elderly population of the eastern United States. Moreover, some constituents increased the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality. These results provide new evidence that chemical composition can partly explain the differential toxicity of PM2.5.

Survival and determinants of mortality in adult HIV/Aids patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Somali Region, Eastern Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Damtew, Bereket; Mengistie, Bezatu; Alemayehu, Tadesse

2015-01-01

Introduction Studies have shown high initial mortality in Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) programs from resource-limited settings. However, there is dearth of evidence on treatment outcomes and associated determinant factors in public hospitals. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess survival and identify predictors of death in adult HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public hospital in Eastern Ethiopia. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing baseline and follow-up records of patients who started ART between December 1, 2007 and December 31, 2011 at Kharamara hospital. Time to death was the main outcome measure. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate mortality and Cox proportional hazards models to identify predictors of mortality. Results A total of 784 patients (58.4% females) were followed for a median of 60 months. There were 87 (11.1%) deaths yielding an overall mortality rate of 5.15/100 PYO (95% CI: 4.73-6.37). The estimated mortality was 8.4%, 9.8%, 11.3%, 12.7% and 14.1% at 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months respectively. The independent predictors of death were single marital status (AHR: 2.31; 95%CI: 1.18-4.50), a bedridden functional status (AHR: 5.91; 95%CI: 2.87-12.16), advanced WHO stage (AHR: 7.36; 95%CI: 3.17-17.12), BMI < 18.5 Kg/m2 (AHR: 2.20; 95%CI: 1.18-4.09), CD4 count < 50 cells/µL (AHR: 2.70; 95%CI: 1.26-5.80), severe anemia (AHR: 4.57; 95%CI: 2.30-9.10), and TB co-infection (AHR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.28-4.11). Conclusion Improved survival was observed in patients taking ART in Somali region of Ethiopia. The risk for death was higher in patients with advanced WHO stage, low CD4 count, low Hgb, low BMI, and concomitant TB infection. Intensive case management is recommended for patients with the prognostic factors. Optimal immunologic and weight recoveries in the first 6 months suggest increased effort to retain patients in care at this period. PMID:26889319

Left Ventricular Reverse Remodeling With Biventricular Versus Right Ventricular Pacing in Patients With Atrioventricular Block and Heart Failure in the BLOCK HF Trial.

PubMed

St John Sutton, Martin; Plappert, Ted; Adamson, Philip B; Li, Pei; Christman, Shelly A; Chung, Eugene S; Curtis, Anne B

2015-05-01

Biventricular pacing in heart failure (HF) improves survival, relieves symptoms, and attenuates left ventricular (LV) remodeling. However, little is known about biventricular pacing in HF patients with atrioventricular block because they are typically excluded from biventricular trials. The Biventricular versus Right Ventricular Pacing in Heart Failure Patients with Atrioventricular Block (BLOCK HF) trial randomized patients with atrioventricular block, New York Heart Association symptom classes I to III HF, and LV ejection fraction ≤50% to biventricular or right ventricular pacing. Doppler echocardiograms were obtained at randomization (after 30 to 60 days of right ventricular pacing postimplant) and every 6 months through 24 months. Data analysis comparing changes in 10 prespecified echo parameters over time was conducted using a Bayesian design. LV end systolic volume index was also evaluated as a predictor of mortality/morbidity. Of 691 randomized subjects, 624 had paired Doppler echocardiogram data for ≥1 analyses at 6, 12, 18, or 24 months. Biventricular pacing significantly reduced LV volume indices and intraventricular mechanical delay, and improved LV ejection fraction, consistent with LV reverse remodeling. These parameters showed little change with right ventricular pacing alone, indicating no systematic reverse remodeling with right ventricular pacing. LV end systolic volume index was predictive of mortality/morbidity; the estimated risk increased up to 1% for every 1 mL/m(2) increase in LV end systolic volume index. LV end systolic volume index is a significant predictor of mortality/morbidity in this population. Cardiac structure and function are improved with biventricular pacing for patients with atrioventricular block and LV systolic dysfunction. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00267098. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Growth and exploitation rate of Anadara gubernaculum (reeve, 1844) Arcidae Family in Asahan Aquatic of North Sumatra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzan, M.; Bakti, D.; Susetya, I. E.; Desrita

2018-02-01

High market demand for A. gubernaculum, tends to increase the greater catching capacity so that the decreasing population. The aims of this study were to determine the growth and rate of exploitation of A. gubernaculum in Asahan aquatic. It was conducted for 1 Month 14 Days from October to November 2016. Data analyzed by (Electronic Lenght Frequencys Assesment Tool) ELEFAN I method by using (FAO-ICLARM Fish Stock Assesment Tool) on FiSAT II software. Shells obtained 855 individual. The growth pattern of shells is negative allometric. The range of condition factor was 0.81 - 2.15. The frequency distribution of the A. gubernaculum ranges from 14 to 43 mm, the dominant size group was 20 - 22 mm. The prediction of growth parameter Von Bertalanfy showed that the asimptot length (L∞) is 43.05 mm, the growth coefficient (K) is 1.2/year and the theoretical life (t0) of the A. gubernaculum is -0.12. The total Mortality (Z) of Anadara gubernaculum was 2.121/year. Natural mortality estimation rate (M) was 1.9/year. The exploitation rate of Anadara gubernaculum is 0.1/year.

[Early prediction of the neurological result at 12 months in newborns at neurological risk].

PubMed

Herbón, F; Garibotti, G; Moguilevsky, J

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the Amiel-Tison neurological examination (AT) and cranial ultrasound at term for predicting the neurological result at 12 months in newborns with neurological risk. The study included 89 newborns with high risk of neurological damage, who were discharged from the Neonatal Intensive Care of the Hospital Zonal Bariloche, Argentina. The assessment consisted of a neurological examination and cranial ultrasound at term, and neurological examination and evaluation of development at 12 months. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictor value was calculated. The relationship between perinatal factors and neurodevelopment at 12 month of age was also calculated using logistic regression models. Seventy children completed the follow-up. At 12 months of age, 14% had an abnormal neurological examination, and 17% abnormal development. The neurological examination and the cranial ultrasound at term had low sensitivity to predict abnormal neurodevelopment. At 12 months, 93% of newborns with normal AT showed normal neurological results, and 86% normal development. Among newborns with normal cranial ultrasound the percentages were 90 and 81%, respectively. Among children with three or more perinatal risk factors, the frequency of abnormalities in the neurological response was 5.4 times higher than among those with fewer risk factors, and abnormal development was 3.5 times more frequent. The neurological examination and cranial ultrasound at term had low sensitivity but high negative predictive value for the neurodevelopment at 12 months. Three or more perinatal risk factors were associated with neurodevelopment abnormalities at 12 months of age. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Trends and predictions to 2020 in breast cancer mortality: Americas and Australasia.

PubMed

Carioli, Greta; Malvezzi, Matteo; Rodriguez, Teresa; Bertuccio, Paola; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

2018-02-01

We considered trends in breast cancer mortality for 12 American and 8 Australasian countries during 1970-2014, and predicted rates for 2020. We obtained official death certification data for breast cancer and population figures from the World Health Organization, Pan American Health Organization and United Nations databases. We derived age-standardized rates (world standard population), and predictions for 2020 using joinpoint regression. Breast cancer mortality trends were favourable in North America and Oceania, and a further 10% reduction in their overall rates is predicted for 2020, to reach values of 11-12/100,000 women, i.e. about 50% lower than their top rates in the later 1980's. Hong Kong, Japan and Korea did not show appreciable trends, but their rates remained below 10/100,000. Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Brazil also had stable rates, below or around 10/100,000. Breast cancer mortality was higher in Argentina, Cuba and Venezuela, and only Argentina showed some favourable trends over recent years, and predictions to 2020 around 16/100,000. Trends and predictions were less favourable in Israel, New Zealand, and the Philippines than in most other countries with predicted rates in 2020 between 13 and 16/100,000. In several high-income countries, the fall in breast cancer mortality, due to improved treatment and diagnosis, has been the major success in the management of any common cancer over the last three decades. There are, however, persistent disparities in the global decline in breast cancer, which call for urgent management improvements in several areas of the world, particularly in middle-income countries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Timing and proximate causes of mortality in wild bird populations: testing Ashmole’s hypothesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barton, Daniel C.; Martin, Thomas E.

2012-01-01

Fecundity in birds is widely recognized to increase with latitude across diverse phylogenetic groups and regions, yet the causes of this variation remain enigmatic. Ashmole’s hypothesis is one of the most broadly accepted explanations for this pattern. This hypothesis suggests that increasing seasonality leads to increasing overwinter mortality due to resource scarcity during the lean season (e.g., winter) in higher latitude climates. This mortality is then thought to yield increased per-capita resources for breeding that allow larger clutch sizes at high latitudes. Support for this hypothesis has been based on indirect tests, whereas the underlying mechanisms and assumptions remain poorly explored. We used a meta-analysis of over 150 published studies to test two underlying and critical assumptions of Ashmole’s hypothesis: first, that ad ult mortality is greatest during the season of greatest resource scarcity, and second, t hat most mortality is caused by starvation. We found that the lean season (winter) was generally not the season of greatest mortality. Instead, spring or summer was most frequently the season of greatest mortality. Moreover, monthly survival rates were not explained by monthly productivity, again opposing predictions from Ashmole’s hypothesis. Finally, predation, rather than starvation, was the most frequent proximate cause o f mortality. Our results do not support the mechanistic predictions of Ashmole‘s hypothesis, and suggest alternative explanations of latitudinal variation in clutch size should remain under consideration. Our meta-analysis also highlights a paucity of data available on the timing and causes of mortality in many bird populations, particularly tropical bird populations, despite the clear theoretical and empirical importance of such data.

Biochemical risk indices, including plasma homocysteine, that prospectively predict mortality in older British people: the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of People Aged 65 Years and Over.

PubMed

Bates, Christopher J; Mansoor, Mohammed A; Pentieva, Kristina D; Hamer, Mark; Mishra, Gita D

2010-09-01

Predictive power, for total and vascular mortality, of selected indices measured at baseline in the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (community-living subset) of People Aged 65 Years and Over was tested. Mortality status and its primary and underlying causes were recorded for 1100 (mean age 76.7 (sd 7.5) years, 50.2% females) respondents from the baseline survey in 1994-5 until September 2008. Follow-up data analyses focussed especially on known predictors of vascular disease risk, together with intakes and status indices of selected nutrients known to affect, or to be affected by, these predictors. Total mortality was significantly predicted by hazard ratios of baseline plasma concentrations (per sd) of total homocysteine (tHcy) (95% CI) 1.19 (1.11, 1.27), pyridoxal phosphate 0.90 (0.81, 1.00), pyridoxic acid 1.10 (1.03, 1.19), alpha1-antichymotrypsin 1.21 (1.13, 1.29), fibrinogen 1.14 (1.05, 1.23), creatinine 1.20 (1.10, 1.31) and glycosylated Hb 1.23 (1.14, 1.32), and by dietary intakes of energy 0.87 (0.80, 0.96) and protein 0.86 (0.77, 0.97). Prediction patterns and significance were similar for primary-cause vascular mortality. The traditional risk predictors plasma total and HDL cholesterol were not significant mortality predictors in this age group, nor were the known tHcy-regulating nutrients, folate and vitamin B12 (intakes and status indices). Model adjustment for known risk predictors resulted in the loss of significance for some of the afore-mentioned indices; however, tHcy 1.34 (1.04, 1.73) remained a significant predictor for vascular mortality. Thus, total and primary vascular mortality is predicted by energy and protein intakes, and by biochemical indices including tHcy, independent of serum folate or vitamin B12.

Brain natriuretic peptide predicts functional outcome in ischemic stroke

PubMed Central

Rost, Natalia S; Biffi, Alessandro; Cloonan, Lisa; Chorba, John; Kelly, Peter; Greer, David; Ellinor, Patrick; Furie, Karen L

2011-01-01

Background Elevated serum levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) have been associated with cardioembolic (CE) stroke and increased post-stroke mortality. We sought to determine whether BNP levels were associated with functional outcome after ischemic stroke. Methods We measured BNP in consecutive patients aged ≥18 years admitted to our Stroke Unit between 2002–2005. BNP quintiles were used for analysis. Stroke subtypes were assigned using TOAST criteria. Outcomes were measured as 6-month modified Rankin Scale score (“good outcome” = 0–2 vs. “poor”) as well as mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess association between the quintiles of BNP and outcomes. Predictive performance of BNP as compared to clinical model alone was assessed by comparing ROC curves. Results Of 569 ischemic stroke patients, 46% were female; mean age was 67.9 ± 15 years. In age- and gender-adjusted analysis, elevated BNP was associated with lower ejection fraction (p<0.0001) and left atrial dilatation (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, elevated BNP decreased the odds of good functional outcome (OR 0.64, 95%CI 0.41–0.98) and increased the odds of death (OR 1.75, 95%CI 1.36–2.24) in these patients. Addition of BNP to multivariate models increased their predictive performance for functional outcome (p=0.013) and mortality (p<0.03) after CE stroke. Conclusions Serum BNP levels are strongly associated with CE stroke and functional outcome at 6 months after ischemic stroke. Inclusion of BNP improved prediction of mortality in patients with CE stroke. PMID:22116811

Clopidogrel discontinuation after acute coronary syndromes: frequency, predictors and associations with death and myocardial infarction—a hospital registry-primary care linked cohort (MINAP–GPRD)

PubMed Central

Boggon, Rachael; van Staa, Tjeerd P.; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry; Ray, Kausik K.; Begg, Alan; Emmas, Cathy; Fox, Keith A.A.

2011-01-01

Aims Adherence to evidence-based treatments and its consequences after acute myocardial infarction (MI) are poorly defined. We examined the extent to which clopidogrel treatment initiated in hospital is continued in primary care; the factors predictive of clopidogrel discontinuation and the hazard of death or recurrent MI. Methods and results We linked the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project registry and the General Practice Research Database to examine adherence to clopidogrel in primary care among patients discharged from hospital after MI (2003–2009). Hospital Episode Statistics and national mortality data were linked, documenting all-cause mortality and non-fatal MI. Of the 7543 linked patients, 4650 were prescribed clopidogrel in primary care within 3 months of discharge. The adjusted odds of still being prescribed clopidogrel at 12 months were similar following non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) 53% (95% CI, 51–55) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) 54% (95% CI, 52–56), but contrast with statins: NSTEMI 84% (95% CI, 82–85) and STEMI 89% (95% CI, 87–90). Discontinuation within 12 months was more frequent in older patients [>80 vs. 40–49 years, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.50 (95% CI, 1.15–1.94)] and with bleeding events [HR 1.34 (95% CI, 1.03–1.73)]. 18.15 patients per 100 person-years (95% CI, 16.83–19.58) died or experienced non-fatal MI in the first year following discharge. In patients who discontinued clopidogrel within 12 months, the adjusted HR for death or non-fatal MI was 1.45 (95% CI, 1.22–1.73) compared with untreated patients, and 2.62 (95% CI, 2.17–3.17) compared with patients persisting with clopidogrel treatment. Conclusion This is the first study to use linked registries to determine persistence of clopidogrel treatment after MI in primary care. It demonstrates that discontinuation is common and associated with adverse outcomes. PMID:21875855

Can Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score (PRISM III) Be Used Effectively in Initial Evaluation and Follow-up of Critically Ill Cancer Patients Admitted to Pediatric Oncology Intensive Care Unit (POICU)? A Prospective Study, in a Tertiary Cancer Center in Egypt.

PubMed

Sayed, Heba A; Ali, Amany M; Elzembely, Mahmoud M

2017-11-23

Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score (PRISM III-12) is a physiology-based predictor for risk of mortality. We conducted prospective study from January 1, 2014 to 2015 in pediatric oncology intensive care unit (POICU) at South Egypt Cancer Institute, Egypt to explore the ability of 1st PRISM III-12 to predict the risk of mortality in critically ill cancer patients and the ability of serial PRISM III measured every 72 hours to follow-up the patients' clinical condition during POICU stay. In total, 123 (78 males) children were included. Median age was 5 years (1 to 15 y). Death rate was 20%. 1st PRISM III-12 mean was 19 (0 to 61). The mean 1st PRISM III-12 for survivors was significantly higher compared with nonsurvivors (15 vs. 37 respectively; P<0.001). 1st PRISM III-12 mean was significantly correlated to the reasons for admission and organ failures' number (P<0.001 and <0.001). 1st PRISM III-12 correlated weakly positive with the length of stay (r=0.2; P=0.024). Receiver operator curve for 1st PRISM III-12 was 0.913 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.98; P<0.001). Decline in serial PRISM III was significantly correlated with favorable (survivor) outcome (P<0.001). We concluded that PRISM III-12 can be used effectively in predicting the risk of mortality and following the clinical condition of patients during POICU stay.

Infant pain-related negative affect at 12 months of age: early infant and caregiver predictors.

PubMed

Din Osmun, Laila; Pillai Riddell, Rebecca; Flora, David B

2014-01-01

To examine the predictive relationships of early infant and caregiver variables on expressed pain-related negative affect duration at the 12-month immunization. Infants and their caregivers (N = 255) were followed during immunization appointments over the first year of life. Latent growth curve modeling in a structural equation modeling context was used. Higher levels of initial infant pain reactivity at 2 months and caregiver emotional availability averaged across 2, 4, and 6 months of age were related to larger decreases in the duration of infant negative affect over the first 6 months of life. Longer duration of infant negative affect at 2 months and poorer regulation of infant negative affect over the first 6 months of life predicted longer durations of infant negative affect by 12 months. Infant negative affect at 12 months was a function of both infant factors and the quality of caregiver interactive behaviors (emotional availability) in early infancy.

Worsening calcification propensity precedes all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in haemodialyzed patients.

PubMed

Lorenz, Georg; Steubl, Dominik; Kemmner, Stephan; Pasch, Andreas; Koch-Sembdner, Wilhelm; Pham, Dang; Haller, Bernhard; Bachmann, Quirin; Mayer, Christopher C; Wassertheurer, Siegfried; Angermann, Susanne; Lech, Maciej; Moog, Philipp; Bauer, Axel; Heemann, Uwe; Schmaderer, Christoph

2017-10-17

A novel in-vitro test (T 50 -test) assesses ex-vivo serum calcification propensity which predicts mortality in HD patients. The association of longitudinal changes of T 50 with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality has not been investigated. We assessed T 50 in paired sera collected at baseline and at 24 months in 188 prevalent European HD patients from the ISAR cohort, most of whom were Caucasians. Patients were followed for another 19 [interquartile range: 11-37] months. Serum T 50 exhibited a significant decline between baseline and 24 months (246 ± 64 to 190 ± 68 minutes; p < 0.001). With serum Δ-phosphate showing the strongest independent association with declining T 50 (r = -0.39; p < 0.001) in multivariable linear regression. The rate of decline of T 50 over 24 months was a significant predictor of all-cause (HR = 1.51 per 1SD decline, 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.2; p = 0.03) and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.15 to 3.97; p = 0.02) in Kaplan Meier and multivariable Cox-regression analysis, while cross-sectional T 50 at inclusion and 24 months were not. Worsening serum calcification propensity was an independent predictor of mortality in this small cohort of prevalent HD patients. Prospective larger scaled studies are needed to assess the value of calcification propensity as a longitudinal parameter for risk stratification and monitoring of therapeutic interventions.

Observed fearlessness and positive parenting interact to predict childhood callous-unemotional behaviors among low-income boys

PubMed Central

Waller, Rebecca; Shaw, Daniel S.; Hyde, Luke W.

2016-01-01

Background Callous-unemotional behaviors identify children at risk for severe and chronic antisocial behavior. Research is needed to establish pathways from temperament and parenting factors that give rise to callous-unemotional behaviors, including interactions of positive versus harsh parenting with child fearlessness. Methods Multi-method data, including parent reports and observations of parent and child behavior, were drawn from a prospective, longitudinal sample of low-income boys (N=310) with assessments at 18, 24, and 42 months, and at ages 10–12 years old. Results Parent-reported callous-unemotional, oppositional, and attention-deficit factors were separable at 42 months. Callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at ages 10–12, accounting for earlier oppositional and attention-deficit behaviors and self-reported child delinquency at ages 10–12. Observations of fearlessness at 24 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months, but only when parents exhibited low observed levels of positive parenting. The interaction of fearlessness and low positive parenting indirectly predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 10–12 via callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months. Conclusions Early fearlessness interacts with low positive parenting to predict early callous-unemotional behaviors, with lasting effects of this person-by-context interaction on callous-unemotional behaviors into late-childhood. PMID:27917472

Initial Weight Loss after Restrictive Bariatric Procedures May Predict Mid-Term Weight Maintenance: Results From a 12-Month Pilot Trial.

PubMed

Nikolić, Marko; Kruljac, Ivan; Kirigin, Lora; Mirošević, Gorana; Ljubičić, Neven; Nikolić, Borka Pezo; Bekavac-Bešlin, Miroslav; Budimir, Ivan; Vrkljan, Milan

2015-06-01

Background: Bariatric procedures are effective options for weight loss (WL) in the morbidly obese. However, some patients fail to lose any weight after bariatric surgery, and mid-term weight maintenance is variable. The aim of this study was to investigate whether initial WL could predict mid-term weight maintenance. Methods: Eighty patients were enrolled, of whom 44 were treated with the BioEnterics Intragastric Balloon (BIB), 21 with laparoscopic adjustable gastric lap-banding (LAGB), and 15 with laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG). Percentage of body WL and percentage of excess weight loss (EWL) were calculated at baseline and after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Successful WL was defined as EWL >20% for patients treated with BIB and >50% for patients treated with LAGB and SG. Results: Success in the 6th and 12th month was achieved in 80% and 58% of patients in the BIB group, 33% and 40% in the LAGB group, and 60% and 73% in the LSG group. In the BIB group, WL in the 1st month correlated positively with WL at the 6th and 12th month, and an initial WL >6.5% best predicted success (sensitivity 50%, specificity 80%). A similar association was observed in the LAGB group at the 6th and 12th month and an initial WL >9.4% best predicted success (sensitivity 90.0%, specificity 81.2%). In patients treated with LSG, WL in the 3rd month correlated positively with EWL at the 6th and 12th month, with a cutoff value of 17% (sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 100%). Conclusions: WL in the 1st month in patients treated with BIB and LAGB and WL in the 3rd month in patients treated with LSG could be used as a prognostic factor to predict mid-term weight maintenance.

Impact Evaluation of PRONTO Mexico: A Simulation-Based Program in Obstetric and Neonatal Emergencies and Team Training

PubMed Central

Walker, Dilys M.; Cohen, Susanna R.; Fritz, Jimena; Olvera-García, Marisela; Zelek, Sarah T.; Fahey, Jenifer O.; Romero-Martínez, Martín; Montoya-Rodríguez, Alejandra; Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor

2016-01-01

Introduction Most maternal deaths in Mexico occur within health facilities, often attributable to suboptimal care and lack of access to emergency services. Improving obstetric and neonatal emergency care can improve health outcomes. We evaluated the impact of PRONTO, a simulation-based low-cost obstetric and neonatal emergency and team training program on patient outcomes. Methods We conducted a pair-matched hospital-based trial in Mexico from 2010 to 2013 with 24 public hospitals. Obstetric and neonatal care providers participated in PRONTO trainings at intervention hospitals. Control hospitals received no intervention. Outcome measures included hospital-based neonatal mortality, maternal complications, and cesarean delivery. We fitted mixed-effects negative binomial regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals using a difference-in-differences approach, cumulatively, and at follow-up intervals measured at 4, 8, and 12 months. Results There was a significant estimated impact of PRONTO on the incidence of cesarean sections in intervention hospitals relative to controls adjusting for baseline differences during all 12 months cumulative of follow-up (21% decrease, P = 0.005) and in intervals measured at 4 (16% decrease, P = 0.02), 8 (20% decrease, P = 0.004), and 12 months’ (20% decrease, P = 0.003) follow-up. We found no statistically significant impact of the intervention on the incidence of maternal complications. A significant impact of a 40% reduction in neonatal mortality adjusting for baseline differences was apparent at 8 months postintervention but not at 4 or 12 months. Conclusions PRONTO reduced the incidence of cesarean delivery and may improve neonatal mortality, although the effect on the latter might not be sustainable. Further study is warranted to confirm whether obstetric and neonatal emergency simulation and team training can have lasting results on patient outcomes. PMID:26312613

Maintained intentional weight loss reduces cardiovascular outcomes: results from the Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial.

PubMed

Caterson, I D; Finer, N; Coutinho, W; Van Gaal, L F; Maggioni, A P; Torp-Pedersen, C; Sharma, A M; Legler, U F; Shepherd, G M; Rode, R A; Perdok, R J; Renz, C L; James, W P T

2012-06-01

The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes trial showed that sibutramine produced greater mean weight loss than placebo but increased cardiovascular morbidity but not mortality. The relationship between 12-month weight loss and subsequent cardiovascular outcomes is explored. Overweight/obese subjects (N = 10 744), ≥55 years with cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus, received sibutramine plus weight management during a 6-week Lead-in Period before randomization to continue sibutramine (N = 4906) or to receive placebo (N = 4898). The primary endpoint was the time from randomization to first occurrence of a primary outcome event (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest or cardiovascular death). For the total population, mean weight change during Lead-in Period (sibutramine) was -2.54 kg. Post-randomization, mean total weight change to Month 12 was -4.18 kg (sibutramine) or -1.87 kg (placebo). Degree of weight loss during Lead-in Period or through Month 12 was associated with a progressive reduction in risk for the total population in primary outcome events and cardiovascular mortality over the 5-year assessment. Although more events occurred in the randomized sibutramine group, on an average, a modest weight loss of approximately 3 kg achieved in the Lead-in Period appeared to offset this increased event rate. Moderate weight loss (3-10 kg) reduced cardiovascular deaths in those with severe, moderate or mild cardiovascular disease. Modest weight loss over short-term (6 weeks) and longer-term (6-12 months) periods is associated with reduction in subsequent cardiovascular mortality for the following 4-5 years even in those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease. While the sibutramine group experienced more primary outcome events than the placebo group, greater weight loss reduced overall risk of these occurring in both groups. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Vitamin D as supplementary treatment for tuberculosis: a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

PubMed

Wejse, Christian; Gomes, Victor F; Rabna, Paulo; Gustafson, Per; Aaby, Peter; Lisse, Ida M; Andersen, Paul L; Glerup, Henning; Sodemann, Morten

2009-05-01

Vitamin D has been shown to be involved in the host immune response toward Mycobacterium tuberculosis. To test whether vitamin D supplementation of patients with tuberculosis (TB) improved clinical outcome and reduced mortality. We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in TB clinics at a demographic surveillance site in Guinea-Bissau. We included 365 adult patients with TB starting antituberculosis treatment; 281 completed the 12-month follow-up. The intervention was 100,000 IU of cholecalciferol or placebo at inclusion and again 5 and 8 months after the start of treatment. The primary outcome was reduction in a clinical severity score (TBscore) for all patients with pulmonary TB. The secondary outcome was 12-month mortality. No serious adverse effects were reported; mild hypercalcemia was rare and present in both arms. Reduction in TBscore and sputum smear conversion rates did not differ among patients treated with vitamin D or placebo. Overall mortality was 15% (54 of 365) at 1 year of follow-up and similar in both arms (30 of 187 for vitamin D treated and 24 of 178 for placebo; relative risk, 1.19 [0.58-1.95]). HIV infection was seen in 36% (131 of 359): 21% (76 of 359) HIV-1, 10% (36 of 359) HIV-2, and 5% (19 of 357) HIV-1+2. Vitamin D does not improve clinical outcome among patients with TB and the trial showed no overall effect on mortality in patients with TB; it is possible that the dose used was insufficient. Clinical trial registered with www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn (ISRCTN35212132).

Geriatric assessment predicts survival and toxicities in elderly myeloma patients: an International Myeloma Working Group report

PubMed Central

Bringhen, Sara; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Larocca, Alessandra; Facon, Thierry; Kumar, Shaji K.; Offidani, Massimo; McCarthy, Philip; Evangelista, Andrea; Lonial, Sagar; Zweegman, Sonja; Musto, Pellegrino; Terpos, Evangelos; Belch, Andrew; Hajek, Roman; Ludwig, Heinz; Stewart, A. Keith; Moreau, Philippe; Anderson, Kenneth; Einsele, Hermann; Durie, Brian G. M.; Dimopoulos, Meletios A.; Landgren, Ola; San Miguel, Jesus F.; Richardson, Paul; Sonneveld, Pieter; Rajkumar, S. Vincent

2015-01-01

We conducted a pooled analysis of 869 individual newly diagnosed elderly patient data from 3 prospective trials. At diagnosis, a geriatric assessment had been performed. An additive scoring system (range 0-5), based on age, comorbidities, and cognitive and physical conditions, was developed to identify 3 groups: fit (score = 0, 39%), intermediate fitness (score = 1, 31%), and frail (score ≥2, 30%). The 3-year overall survival was 84% in fit, 76% in intermediate-fitness (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; P = .042), and 57% in frail (HR, 3.57; P < .001) patients. The cumulative incidence of grade ≥3 nonhematologic adverse events at 12 months was 22.2% in fit, 26.4% in intermediate-fitness (HR, 1.23; P = .217), and 34.0% in frail (HR, 1.74; P < .001) patients. The cumulative incidence of treatment discontinuation at 12 months was 16.5% in fit, 20.8% in intermediate-fitness (HR, 1.41; P = .052), and 31.2% in frail (HR, 2.21; P < .001) patients. Our frailty score predicts mortality and the risk of toxicity in elderly myeloma patients. The International Myeloma Working group proposes this score for the measurement of frailty in designing future clinical trials. These trials are registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01093136 (EMN01), #NCT01190787 (26866138MMY2069), and #NCT01346787 (IST-CAR-506). PMID:25628469

Trajectories of Mothers' Emotional Availability: Relations with Infant Temperament in Predicting Attachment Security

PubMed Central

Kim, Bo-Ram; Chow, Sy-Miin; Bray, Bethany; Teti, Douglas M.

2017-01-01

The present study examined observations of parenting quality (mothers' emotional availability - EA) during infant bedtimes at 4 points across the infants' first year, assessing relations between levels and trajectories of emotional availability and infant attachment at 12 months and the role of infant temperament in moderating these associations. The sample (N = 128) was predominantly Euro-American (82.5%) and at low socioeconomic risk. Latent growth curve modeling with latent basis coefficients indicated substantial individual differences in initial levels and slopes in EA trajectories across the first year. Both levels of maternal EA and EA trajectories across the first year predicted 12-month infant attachment security. Although maternal EA tended to decrease across the first year in the full sample, EA trajectories that showed a “bounce-back” between 6 and 12 months, suggesting more successful maternal adaptation to an expanding infant developmental repertoire, predicted greater infant security at 12 months. In addition, linkages between latent EA trajectories and 12-month attachment were moderated by 3-month infant temperamental reactivity and regulation. These findings indicate that infant attachment security is sensitive to both static and dynamic aspects of parenting quality across the first year, and that infant temperament can interact with both in predicting infant attachment. PMID:27852132

Trajectories of mothers' emotional availability: relations with infant temperament in predicting attachment security.

PubMed

Kim, Bo-Ram; Chow, Sy-Miin; Bray, Bethany; Teti, Douglas M

2017-02-01

The present study examined observations of parenting quality (mothers' emotional availability - EA) during infant bedtimes at 4 points across the infants' first year, assessing relations between levels and trajectories of EA and infant attachment at 12 months and the role of infant temperament in moderating these associations. The sample (N = 128) was predominantly Euro-American (82.5%) and at low socioeconomic risk. Latent growth curve modeling with latent basis coefficients indicated substantial individual differences in initial levels and slopes in EA trajectories across the first year. Both levels of maternal EA and EA trajectories across the first year predicted 12-month infant attachment security. Although maternal EA tended to decrease across the first year in the full sample, EA trajectories that showed a "bounce-back" between 6 and 12 months, suggesting more successful maternal adaptation to an expanding infant developmental repertoire, predicted greater infant security at 12 months. In addition, linkages between latent EA trajectories and 12-month attachment were moderated by 3-month infant temperamental reactivity and regulation. These findings indicate that infant attachment security is sensitive to both static and dynamic aspects of parenting quality across the first year, and that infant temperament can interact with both in predicting infant attachment.

Event-rate and delta inflation when evaluating mortality as a primary outcome from randomized controlled trials of nutritional interventions during critical illness: a systematic review.

PubMed

Summers, Matthew J; Chapple, Lee-anne S; McClave, Stephen A; Deane, Adam M

2016-04-01

There is a lack of high-quality evidence that proves that nutritional interventions during critical illness reduce mortality. We evaluated whether power calculations for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of nutritional interventions that used mortality as the primary outcome were realistic, and whether overestimation was systematic in the studies identified to determine whether this was due to overestimates of event rate or delta. A systematic review of the literature between 2005 and 2015 was performed to identify RCTs of nutritional interventions administered to critically ill adults that had mortality as the primary outcome. Predicted event rate (predicted mortality during the control), predicted mortality during intervention, predicted delta (predicted difference between mortality during the control and intervention), actual event rate (observed mortality during control), observed mortality during intervention, and actual delta (difference between observed mortality during the control and intervention) were recorded. The event-rate gap (predicted event rate minus observed event rate), the delta gap (predicted delta minus observed delta), and the predicted number needed to treat were calculated. Data are shown as median (range). Fourteen articles were extracted, with power calculations provided for 10 studies. The predicted event rate was 29.9% (20.0–52.4%), and the predicted delta was 7.9% (3.0–20.0%). If the study hypothesis was proven correct then, on the basis of the power calculations, the number needed to treat would have been 12.7 (5.0–33.3) patients. The actual event rate was 25.3% (6.1–50.0%), the observed mortality during the intervention was 24.4% (6.3–39.7%), and the actual delta was 0.5% (−10.2–10.3%), such that the event-rate gap was 2.6% (−3.9–23.7%) and delta gap was 7.5% (3.2–25.2%). Overestimates of delta occur frequently in RCTs of nutritional interventions in the critically ill that are powered to determine a mortality benefit. Delta inflation may explain the number of "negative" studies in this field of research.

Development of a pH/alkalinity treatment model for applications of the lampricide TFM to streams tributary to the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bills, Terry D.; Boogaard, Michael A.; Johnson, David A.; Brege, Dorance C.; Scholefield, Ronald J.; Westman, R. Wayne; Stephens, Brian E.

2003-01-01

It has long been known that the toxicity of the lampricide 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) is influenced by chemical and physical properties of water. As the pH, conductivity, and alkalinity of water increase, greater concentrations of TFM are required to kill sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) larvae. Consequently, the concentration of TFM required for effective treatment varies among streams. Brown trout (Salmo trutta) and sea lamprey larvae were exposed to a series of TFM concentrations in a continuous-flow diluter for 12 h. Twenty five exposures were conducted at various water alkalinities and pHs that treatment personnel encounter during lampricide treatments. Survival/mortality data were analyzed for lampricide concentrations that produced 50 and 99.9% mortality (LC50 and LC99.9) for sea lamprey larvae and 25 and 50% mortality (LC25 and LC50) for brown trout. Linear regression analyses were performed for each set of tests for each selected alkalinity by comparing the 12-h post exposure LC99.9 sea lamprey data and LC25 brown trout data at each pH. Mortality data from on-site toxicity tests conducted by lampricide control personnel were compared to predicted values from the pH/alkalinity prediction model. Of the 31 tests examined, 27 resulted in the LC100s (lowest TFM concentration where 100% mortality of sea lamprey was observed after 12 h of exposure) falling within 0.2 mg/L of the predicted sea lamprey minimum lethal (LC99.9) range. The pH/alkalinity prediction model provides managers with an operational tool that reduces the amount of TFM required for effective treatment while minimizing the impact on non-target organisms.

Bayesian prediction of lung and breast cancer mortality among women in Spain (2014-2020).

PubMed

Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luís; Lunet, Nuno; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

2016-08-01

Breast cancer (BC) is the main cause of cancer mortality among women, and mortality from lung cancer (LC) is increasing among women. The purpose of the present study was to project the mortality rates of both cancers and predict when LC mortality will exceed BC mortality. The cancer mortality data and female population distribution were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude rate (CR), age-standardized rate (ASR), and age-specific rate were calculated for the period 1980-2013 and projected for the period 2014-2020 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model. All calculated rates were greater for BC than for LC in 2013 (CR, 27.3 versus 17.3; ASR, 13.5 versus 9.3), and the CR was not projected to change by 2020 (29.2 versus 27.6). The ASR for LC is expected to surpass that of BC in 2019 (12.9 versus 12.7). By 2020 the LC mortality rates may exceed those of BC for ages 55-74 years, possibly because of the prevalence of smoking among women, and the screening for and more effective treatment of BC. BC screening could be a good opportunity to help smokers quit by offering counseling and behavioral intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of malnutrition upon all-cause mortality among children in Swaziland.

PubMed

Acevedo, Paula; García Esteban, María Teresa; Lopez-Ejeda, Noemí; Gómez, Amador; Marrodán, María Dolores

2017-04-01

To analyze the effect of the type of malnutrition, sex, age and the presence of edema upon all-cause mortality in children under 5 years of age. A cross-sectional study was conducted during 2010 and 2011 in Swaziland. Sex, age, weight and height were taken to classify nutritional status according to the 2006 WHO growth standards: stunting (low height for age), wasting (low weight for height or low body mass index for age) and underweight (low weight for age). The sample (309 boys and 244 girls under 5 years of age) was analyzed by sex and age groups (under and equal/over 12 months). The association between variables was evaluated using the χ 2 test. Cox regression analysis (HR, 95% CI) was used to assess the likelihood of mortality. The mortality risk in malnourished children under one year of age was lower among females and increased in the presence of severe edema. Wasting combined with underweight increased the mortality risk in children under 12 months of age 5-fold, versus 11-fold in older children. The combination of stunting, wasting and underweight was closely associated to mortality. Stunting alone (not combined with wasting) did not significantly increase the mortality risk. Sex, severe edema and wasting are predictors of mortality in malnourished children. Regardless of these factors, children with deficiencies referred to weight for height and weight for age present a greater mortality risk in comparison with children who present stunting only. Copyright © 2017 SEEN. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Immediate Postoperative Pain Scores Predict Neck Pain Profile up to 1 Year Following Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion.

PubMed

Adogwa, Owoicho; Elsamadicy, Aladine A; Vuong, Victoria D; Mehta, Ankit I; Vasquez, Raul A; Cheng, Joseph; Bagley, Carlos A; Karikari, Isaac O

2018-05-01

Retrospective cohort review. To assess whether immediate postoperative neck pain scores accurately predict 12-month visual analog scale-neck pain (VAS-NP) outcomes following Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion surgery (ACDF). This was a retrospective study of 82 patients undergoing elective ACDF surgery at a major academic medical center. Patient reported outcomes measures VAS-NP scores were recorded on the first postoperative day, then at 6-weeks, 3, 6, and 12-months after surgery. Multivariate correlation and logistic regression methods were utilized to determine whether immediate postoperative VAS-NP score accurately predicted 1-year patient reported VAS-NP Scores. Overall, 46.3% male, 25.6% were smokers, and the mean age and body mass index (BMI) were 53.7 years and 28.28 kg/m 2 , respectively. There were significant correlations between immediate postoperative pain scores and neck pain scores at 6 weeks VAS-NP ( P = .0015), 6 months VAS-NP ( P = .0333), and 12 months VAS-NP ( P = .0247) after surgery. Furthermore, immediate postoperative pain score is an independent predictor of 6 weeks, 6 months, and 1 year VAS-NP scores. Our study suggests that immediate postoperative patient reported neck pain scores accurately predicts and correlates with 12-month VAS-NP scores after an ACDF procedure. Patients with high neck pain scores after surgery are more likely to report persistent neck pain 12 months after index surgery.

Using the abbreviated injury severity and Glasgow Coma Scale scores to predict 2-week mortality after traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Timmons, Shelly D; Bee, Tiffany; Webb, Sharon; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon R; Hesdorffer, Dale

2011-11-01

Prediction of outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains elusive. We tested the use of a single hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) Score, GCS Motor Score, and the Head component of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) Score to predict 2-week cumulative mortality in a large cohort of TBI patients admitted to the eight U.S. Level I trauma centers in the TBI Clinical Trials Network. Data on 2,808 TBI patients were entered into a centralized database. These TBI patients were categorized as severe (GCS score, 3-8), moderate (9-12), or complicated mild (13-15 with positive computed tomography findings). Intubation and chemical paralysis were recorded. The cumulative incidence of mortality in the first 2 weeks after head injury was calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the magnitude of the risk for 2-week mortality. Two-week cumulative mortality was independently predicted by GCS, GCS Motor Score, and Head AIS. GCS Severity Category and GCS Motor Score were stronger predictors of 2-week mortality than Head AIS. There was also an independent effect of age (<60 vs. ≥60) on mortality after controlling for both GCS and Head AIS Scores. Anatomic and physiologic scales are useful in the prediction of mortality after TBI. We did not demonstrate any added benefit to combining the total GCS or GCS Motor Scores with the Head AIS Score in the short-term prediction of death after TBI.

Anemia and mortality in hemodialysis patients: accounting for morbidity and treatment variables updated over time.

PubMed

Robinson, Bruce M; Joffe, Marshall M; Berns, Jeffrey S; Pisoni, Ronald L; Port, Friedrich K; Feldman, Harold I

2005-11-01

The objective of this study was to gain insight into the associations of anemia with mortality among maintenance hemodialysis (HD) patients and patient subgroups by an analysis that more comprehensively represents hemoglobin (Hb) level, morbidity, and treatment characteristics over time than was possible in prior observational studies. A cohort study was conducted among 5517 subjects in the American arm of the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study Phase I. We used proportional hazard analysis to model all-cause mortality as a function of Hb level measured 1, 3, and 6 months previously. Forty-five potentially confounding patient-level characteristics were considered, including demographics, comorbidities, and time-updated levels of erythropoietin and parenteral iron dosing, medical events, and laboratory and dialysis measures. Compared to Hb 11 to <12 g/dL, subjects with Hb <11 g/dL had increased mortality [adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) in the 3-month-lagged model = 1.74 (1.24 to 2.43) for <9 g/dL, 1.25 (0.96 to 1.63) for 9 to <10 g/dL, and 1.22 (0.99 to 1.49) for 10 to <11 g/dL categories]. Mortality rates for subjects with Hb 12 to <13 g/dL and > or = 13 g/dL did not differ significantly from those with Hb 11 to <12 g/dL. The relationships between Hb and mortality varied modestly with changes in the time interval between Hb measurement and the time at risk for mortality, but did not vary according to ESRD vintage or health status indicators. Our findings confirm the associations of Hb levels > or =11 g/dL with longer survival among maintenance HD patients, but show no additional survival advantage for patients with Hb levels > or =12 g/dL. Further investigation of the relationships among anemia, treatment of anemia, and survival is warranted.

Geotagged US Tweets as Predictors of County-Level Health Outcomes, 2015-2016.

PubMed

Nguyen, Quynh C; McCullough, Matt; Meng, Hsien-Wen; Paul, Debjyoti; Li, Dapeng; Kath, Suraj; Loomis, Geoffrey; Nsoesie, Elaine O; Wen, Ming; Smith, Ken R; Li, Feifei

2017-11-01

To leverage geotagged Twitter data to create national indicators of the social environment, with small-area indicators of prevalent sentiment and social modeling of health behaviors, and to test associations with county-level health outcomes, while controlling for demographic characteristics. We used Twitter's streaming application programming interface to continuously collect a random 1% subset of publicly available geo-located tweets in the contiguous United States. We collected approximately 80 million geotagged tweets from 603 363 unique Twitter users in a 12-month period (April 2015-March 2016). Across 3135 US counties, Twitter indicators of happiness, food, and physical activity were associated with lower premature mortality, obesity, and physical inactivity. Alcohol-use tweets predicted higher alcohol-use-related mortality. Social media represents a new type of real-time data that may enable public health officials to examine movement of norms, sentiment, and behaviors that may portend emerging issues or outbreaks-thus providing a way to intervene to prevent adverse health events and measure the impact of health interventions.

Validation of the CRASH model in the prediction of 18-month mortality and unfavorable outcome in severe traumatic brain injury requiring decompressive craniectomy.

PubMed

Honeybul, Stephen; Ho, Kwok M; Lind, Christopher R P; Gillett, Grant R

2014-05-01

The goal in this study was to assess the validity of the corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH) collaborators prediction model in predicting mortality and unfavorable outcome at 18 months in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) requiring decompressive craniectomy. In addition, the authors aimed to assess whether this model was well calibrated in predicting outcome across a wide spectrum of severity of TBI requiring decompressive craniectomy. This prospective observational cohort study included all patients who underwent a decompressive craniectomy following severe TBI at the two major trauma hospitals in Western Australia between 2004 and 2012 and for whom 18-month follow-up data were available. Clinical and radiological data on initial presentation were entered into the Web-based model and the predicted outcome was compared with the observed outcome. In validating the CRASH model, the authors used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to assess the ability of the CRASH model to differentiate between favorable and unfavorable outcomes. The ability of the CRASH 6-month unfavorable prediction model to differentiate between unfavorable and favorable outcomes at 18 months after decompressive craniectomy was good (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90). However, the model's calibration was not perfect. The slope and the intercept of the calibration curve were 1.66 (SE 0.21) and -1.11 (SE 0.14), respectively, suggesting that the predicted risks of unfavorable outcomes were not sufficiently extreme or different across different risk strata and were systematically too high (or overly pessimistic), respectively. The CRASH collaborators prediction model can be used as a surrogate index of injury severity to stratify patients according to injury severity. However, clinical decisions should not be based solely on the predicted risks derived from the model, because the number of patients in each predicted risk stratum was still relatively small and hence the results were relatively imprecise. Notwithstanding these limitations, the model may add to a clinician's ability to have better-informed conversations with colleagues and patients' relatives about prognosis.

Nonlinear Impact of Temperature on Mortality in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A. T.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is posing unprecedented challenges to human welfare, yet there is much uncertainty about the cost of its impact. Accurate quantification of the social cost of carbon is crucial for designing effective climate policies that reduce emissions and mitigate the adverse impact of global warming, and human health is an important component of the calculation. Despite a growing body of literature documenting the relationship between temperature and mortality in the U.S., similar results using nationwide data have not been clearly established in other countries. Using random monthly variations in temperature for over a decade, this paper finds a statistically significant nonlinear relationship between monthly mortality rate and daily temperature in France between 1998 and 2012. Extremely hot days are associated with significantly higher mortality rates: One additional day with a mean temperature above 30°C, relative to a day in the 12°C to 15°C range, leads to 10 extra all-age, all-gender monthly deaths per 100,000. The effect of cold temperatures is milder: An extremely cold day with an average temperature from -9 °C to -6 °C increases all-age, all-gender mortality rate by about 1.2 per 100,000 each month. There is also notable heterogeneity in the observed nonlinear relationship across age groups and gender, in which males and the elderly are generally more susceptible to extreme temperatures than females and the young. This highlights that children and youth may be well protected through adaptive behaviors, such as spending more time indoors in temperature-controlled rooms and staying hydrated. Compared to studies done in the U.S., extremely hot days >30°C leads to considerably more deaths in France. Preliminary evidence suggests that there has been very limited adaptation despite two prominent heat waves in 2003 and 2006, although further analysis of electricity consumption and air conditioning usage is needed to ascertain the extent to which protective behavior mitigates mortality risks from temperature extremes.

Child Mortality after Discharge from a Health Facility following Suspected Pneumonia, Meningitis or Septicaemia in Rural Gambia: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Chhibber, Aakash Varun; Hill, Philip C; Jafali, James; Jasseh, Momodou; Hossain, Mohammad Ilias; Ndiaye, Malick; Pathirana, Jayani C; Greenwood, Brian; Mackenzie, Grant A

2015-01-01

To measure mortality and its risk factors among children discharged from a health centre in rural Gambia. We conducted a cohort study between 12 May 2008 and 11 May 2012. Children aged 2-59 months, admitted with suspected pneumonia, sepsis, or meningitis after presenting to primary and secondary care facilities, were followed for 180 days after discharge. We developed models associating post-discharge mortality with clinical syndrome on admission and clinical risk factors. One hundred and five of 3755 (2.8%) children died, 80% within 3 months of discharge. Among children aged 2-11 and 12-59 months, there were 30 and 29 deaths per 1000 children per 180 days respectively, compared to 11 and 5 respectively in the resident population. Children with suspected pneumonia unaccompanied by clinically severe malnutrition (CSM) had the lowest risk of post-discharge mortality. Mortality increased in children with suspected meningitis or septicaemia without CSM (hazard ratio [HR] 2.6 and 2.2 respectively). The risk of mortality greatly increased with CSM on admission: CSM with suspected pneumonia (HR 8.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4 to 15), suspected sepsis (HR 18.4; 95% CI 11.3 to 30), or suspected meningitis (HR 13.7; 95% CI 4.2 to 45). Independent associations with mortality were: mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 11.5-13.0 cm compared to >13.0 cm (HR 7.2; 95% CI 3.0 to 17.0), MUAC 10.5-11.4 cm (HR 24; 95% CI 9.4 to 62), and MUAC <10.5 cm (HR 44; 95% CI 18 to 108), neck stiffness (HR 10.4; 95% CI 3.1 to 34.8), non-medical discharge (HR 4.7; 95% CI 2.0 to 10.9), dry season discharge (HR 2.0; 95% CI 1.2 to 3.3), while greater haemoglobin (HR 0.82; 0.73 to 0.91), axillary temperature (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87), and oxygen saturation (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.99) were associated with reduced mortality. Gambian children experience increased mortality after discharge from primary and secondary care. Interventions should target both moderately and severely malnourished children.

Prognostic and therapeutic implications of statin and aspirin therapy in individuals with nonobstructive coronary artery disease: results from the CONFIRM (COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational Multicenter registry) registry.

PubMed

Chow, Benjamin J W; Small, Gary; Yam, Yeung; Chen, Li; McPherson, Ruth; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Cheng, Victor Y; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Cury, Ricardo; Delago, Augustin; Dunning, Allison; Feuchtner, Gundrun; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Jörg; Karlsberg, Ronald P; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon; LaBounty, Troy; Lin, Fay; Maffei, Erica; Raff, Gilbert L; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Min, James K

2015-04-01

We sought to examine the risk of mortality associated with nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and to determine the impact of baseline statin and aspirin use on mortality. Coronary computed tomographic angiography permits direct visualization of nonobstructive CAD. To date, the prognostic implications of nonobstructive CAD and the potential benefit of directing therapy based on nonobstructive CAD have not been carefully examined. A total of 27 125 consecutive patients who underwent computed tomographic angiography (12 enrolling centers and 6 countries) were prospectively entered into the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) registry. Patients, without history of previous CAD or obstructive CAD, for whom baseline statin and aspirin use was available were analyzed. Each coronary segment was classified as normal or nonobstructive CAD (1%-49% stenosis). Patients were followed up for a median of 27.2 months for all-cause mortality. The study comprised 10 418 patients (5712 normal and 4706 with nonobstructive CAD). In multivariable analyses, patients with nonobstructive CAD had a 6% (95% confidence interval, 1%-12%) higher risk of mortality for each additional segment with nonobstructive plaque (P=0.021). Baseline statin use was associated with a reduced risk of mortality (hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.68; P=0.0003), a benefit that was present for individuals with nonobstructive CAD (hazard ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.55; P<0.001) but not for those without plaque (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-1.43; P=0.287). When stratified by National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Program III, no mortality benefit was observed in individuals without plaque. Aspirin use was not associated with mortality benefit, irrespective of the status of plaque. The presence and extent of nonobstructive CAD predicted mortality. Baseline statin therapy was associated with a significant reduction in mortality for individuals with nonobstructive CAD but not for individuals without CAD. URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier NCT01443637. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predictors of 12-Step Attendance and Participation for Individuals With Stimulant Use Disorders.

PubMed

Hatch-Maillette, Mary; Wells, Elizabeth A; Doyle, Suzanne R; Brigham, Gregory S; Daley, Dennis; DiCenzo, Jessica; Donovan, Dennis; Garrett, Sharon; Horigian, Viviana E; Jenkins, Lindsay; Killeen, Therese; Owens, Mandy; Perl, Harold I

2016-09-01

Few studies have examined the effectiveness of 12-step peer recovery support programs with drug use disorders, especially stimulant use, and it is difficult to know how outcomes related to 12-step attendance and participation generalize to individuals with non-alcohol substance use disorders (SUDs). A clinical trial of 12-step facilitation (N=471) focusing on individuals with cocaine or methamphetamine use disorders allowed examination of four questions: Q1) To what extent do treatment-seeking stimulant users use 12-step programs and, which ones? Q2) Do factors previously found to predict 12-step participation among those with alcohol use disorders also predict participation among stimulant users? Q3) What specific baseline "12-step readiness" factors predict subsequent 12-step participation and attendance? And Q4) Does stimulant drug of choice differentially predict 12-step participation and attendance? The four outcomes variables, attendance, speaking, duties at 12-step meetings, and other peer recovery support activities, were not related to baseline demographic or substance problem history or severity. Drug of choice was associated with differential days of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) and Narcotics Anonymous (NA) attendance among those who reported attending, and cocaine users reported more days of attending AA or NA at 1-, 3- and 6-month follow-ups than did methamphetamine users. Pre-randomization measures of perceived benefit of 12-step groups predicted 12-step attendance at 3- and 6-month follow-ups. Pre-randomization 12-step attendance significantly predicted number of other self-help activities at end-of-treatment, 3- and 6-month follow-ups. Pre-randomization perceived benefit and problem severity both predicted number of self-help activities at end-of-treatment and 3-month follow-up. Pre-randomization perceived barriers to 12-step groups were negatively associated with self-help activities at end-of-treatment and 3-month follow-up. Whether or not one participated in any duties was predicted at all time points by pre-randomization involvement in self-help activities. The primary finding of this study is one of continuity: prior attendance and active involvement with 12-step programs were the main signs pointing to future involvement. Limitations and recommendations are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of 12-Step Attendance and Participation for Individuals with Stimulant Use Disorders

PubMed Central

Hatch-Maillette, Mary; Wells, Elizabeth A.; Doyle, Suzanne R.; Brigham, Gregory S.; Daley, Dennis; DiCenzo, Jessica; Donovan, Dennis; Garrett, Sharon; Horigian, Viviana E.; Jenkins, Lindsay; Killeen, Therese; Owens, Mandy; Perl, Harold I.

2017-01-01

Objective Few studies have examined the effectiveness of 12-step peer recovery support programs with drug use disorders, especially stimulant use, and it is difficult to know how outcomes related to 12-step attendance and participation generalize to individuals with non-alcohol substance use disorders (SUDs). Method A clinical trial of 12-step facilitation (N=471) focusing on individuals with cocaine or methamphetamine use disorders allowed examination of four questions: Q1) To what extent do treatment-seeking stimulant users use 12-step programs and, which ones? Q2) Do factors previously found to predict 12-step participation among those with alcohol use disorders also predict participation among stimulant users? Q3) What specific baseline “12-step readiness” factors predict subsequent 12-step participation and attendance? And Q4) Does stimulant drug of choice differentially predict 12-step participation and attendance? Results The four outcomes variables, Attendance, Speaking, Duties at 12-step meetings, and other peer recovery support Activities, were not related to baseline demographic or substance problem history or severity. Drug of choice was associated with differential days of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) and Narcotics Anonymous (NA) attendance among those who reported attending, and cocaine users reported more days of attending AA or NA at 1-, 3- and 6-month follow-ups than did methamphetamine users. Pre-randomization measures of Perceived Benefit of 12-step groups predicted 12-step Attendance at 3- and 6-month follow-ups. Pre-randomization 12-step Attendance significantly predicted number of other Self-Help Activities at end-of-treatment, 3- and 6-month follow-ups. Pre-randomization Perceived Benefit and problem severity both predicted number of Self-Help Activities at end-of-treatment and 3-month follow-up. Pre-randomization Perceived Barriers to 12-step groups were negatively associated with Self-Help Activities at end-of-treatment and 3-month follow-up. Whether or not one participated in any Duties was predicted at all time points by pre-randomization involvement in Self-Help Activities. Conclusions The primary finding of this study is one of continuity: prior attendance and active involvement with 12-step programs were the main signs pointing to future involvement. Limitations and Recommendations are discussed. PMID:27431050

Predictors of Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump Insertion in Coronary Surgery and Mid-Term Results

PubMed Central

Yurekli, Ismail; Celik, Ersin; Yetkin, Ufuk; Yilik, Levent; Gurbuz, Ali

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to investigate the preoperative, operative, and postoperative factors affecting intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) insertion in patients undergoing isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We also investigated factors affecting morbidity, mortality, and survival in patients with IABP support. Methods Between January 2002 and December 2009, 1,657 patients underwent isolated CABG in İzmir Katip Celebi University Atatürk Training and Research Hospital. The number of patients requiring support with IABP was 134 (8.1%). Results In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time and prolonged operation time were independent predictive factors of IABP insertion. The postoperative mortality rate was 35.8% and 1% in patients with and without IABP support, respectively (p=0.000). Postoperative renal insufficiency, prolonged ventilatory support, and postoperative atrial fibrillation were independent predictive factors of postoperative mortality in patients with IABP support. The mean follow-up time was 38.55±22.70 months and 48.78±25.20 months in patients with and without IABP support, respectively. The follow-up mortality rate was 3% (n=4) and 5.3% (n=78) in patients with and without IABP support, respectively. Conclusion The patients with IABP support had a higher postoperative mortality rate and a longer length of intensive care unit and hospital stay. The mid-term survival was good for patients surviving the early postoperative period. PMID:24368971

Morbidity from in-hospital complications is greater than treatment failure in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia.

PubMed

Holmes, Natasha E; Robinson, J Owen; van Hal, Sebastiaan J; Munckhof, Wendy J; Athan, Eugene; Korman, Tony M; Cheng, Allen C; Turnidge, John D; Johnson, Paul D R; Howden, Benjamin P

2018-03-05

Various studies have identified numerous factors associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB). A new study was created to provide deeper insight into in-hospital complications and risk factors for treatment failure. Adult patients hospitalised with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB) were recruited prospectively into a multi-centre cohort. The primary outcome was treatment failure at 30 days (composite of all-cause mortality, persistent bacteraemia, or recurrent bacteraemia), and secondary measures included in-hospital complications and mortality at 6- and 12-months. Data were available for 222 patients recruited from February 2011 to December 2012. Treatment failure at 30-days was recorded in 14.4% of patients (30-day mortality 9.5%). Multivariable analysis predictors of treatment failure included age > 70 years, Pitt bacteraemia score ≥ 2, CRP at onset of SAB > 250 mg/L, and persistent fevers after SAB onset; serum albumin at onset of SAB, receipt of appropriate empiric treatment, recent healthcare attendance, and performing echocardiography were protective. 6-month and 12-month mortality were 19.1% and 24.2% respectively. 45% experienced at least one in-hospital complication, including nephrotoxicity in 19.5%. This study demonstrates significant improvements in 30-day outcomes in SAB in Australia. However, we have identified important areas to improve outcomes from SAB, particularly reducing renal dysfunction and in-hospital treatment-related complications.

Cytokine activation is predictive of mortality in Zambian patients with AIDS-related diarrhoea

PubMed Central

Zulu, Isaac; Hassan, Ghaniah; Njobvu RN, Lungowe; Dhaliwal, Winnie; Sianongo, Sandie; Kelly, Paul

2008-01-01

Background Mortality in Zambian AIDS patients is high, especially in patients with diarrhoea, and there is still unacceptably high mortality in Zambian patients just starting anti-retroviral therapy. We set out to determine if high concentrations of serum cytokines correlate with mortality. Methods Serum samples from 30 healthy controls (HIV seropositive and seronegative) and 50 patients with diarrhoea (20 of whom died within 6 weeks) were analysed. Concentrations of tumour necrosis factor receptor p55 (TNFR p55), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-12, interferon (IFN)-γ and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured by ELISA, and correlated with mortality after 6 weeks follow-up. Results Apart from IL-12, concentrations of all cytokines, TNFR p55 and CRP increased with worsening severity of disease, showing highly statistically significant trends. In a multivariable analysis high TNFR p55, IFN-γ, CRP and low CD4 count (CD4 count <100) were predictive of mortality. Although nutritional status (assessed by body mass index, BMI) was predictive in univariate analysis, it was not an independent predictor in multivariate analysis. Conclusion High serum concentrations of TNFR p55, IFN-γ, CRP and low CD4 count correlated with disease severity and short-term mortality in HIV-infected Zambian adults with diarrhoea. These factors were better predictors of survival than BMI. Understanding the cause of TNFR p55, IFN-γ and CRP elevation may be useful in development of interventions to reduce mortality in AIDS patients with chronic diarrhoea in Africa. PMID:19014537

Normal-Weight Central Obesity and Mortality Risk in Older Adults With Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Sharma, Saurabh; Batsis, John A; Coutinho, Thais; Somers, Virend K; Hodge, David O; Carter, Rickey E; Sochor, Ondrej; Kragelund, Charlotte; Kanaya, Alka M; Zeller, Marianne; Park, Jong-Seon; Køber, Lars; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Lopez-Jimenez, Francisco

2016-03-01

To study the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and central obesity and mortality in elderly patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We identified 7057 patients 65 years or older from 5 cohort studies assessing mortality risk using either waist circumference (WC) or waist-hip ratio (WHR) in patients with CAD from January 1, 1980, to December 31, 2008. Normal weight, overweight, and obesity were defined using standard BMI cutoffs. High WHR was defined as 0.85 or more for women and 0.90 or more for men. High WC was defined as 88 cm or more for women and 102 cm or more for men. Separate models examined WC or WHR in combination with BMI (6 categories each) as the primary predictor (referent = normal BMI and normal WC or WHR). Cox proportional hazards models investigated the relationship between these obesity categories and mortality. Patients' mean age was 73.0±6.0 years (3741 [53%] women). The median censor time was 7.1 years. A normal BMI with central obesity (high WHR or high WC) demonstrated highest mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.14-1.46; HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12-1.50, respectively). High WHR was also predictive of mortality in the overall (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.93-2.38) as well as in the sex-specific cohort. In the overall cohort, high WC was not predictive of mortality (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.12); however, it predicted higher risk in men (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.24). In older adults with CAD, normal-weight central obesity defined using either WHR or WC is associated with high mortality risk, highlighting a need to combine measures in adiposity-related risk assessment. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Outcomes of Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants with Acidosis at Birth

PubMed Central

Randolph, David A.; Nolen, Tracy L.; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Peralta-Carcelen, Myriam; Das, Abhik; Bell, Edward F.; Davis, Alexis S.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Shankaran, Seetha; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES To test the hypothesis that acidosis at birth is associated with the combined primary outcome of death or neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants, and to develop a predictive model of death/NDI exploring perinatal acidosis as a predictor variable. STUDY DESIGN The study population consisted of ELBW infants born between 2002-2007 at NICHD Neonatal Research Network hospitals. Infants with cord blood gas data and documentation of either mortality prior to discharge or 18-22 month neurodevelopmental outcomes were included. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the contribution of perinatal acidosis, defined as a cord blood gas with a pH<7 or base excess (BE)<-12, to death/NDI in ELBW infants. In addition, a multivariable model predicting death/NDI was developed. RESULTS 3979 patients were identified of whom 249 had a cord gas pH<7 or BE<-12 mEq/L. 2124 patients (53%) had the primary outcome of death/NDI. After adjustment for confounding variables, pH<7 and BE<-12 mEq/L were each significantly associated with death/NDI (OR=2.5[1.6,4.2]; and OR=1.5[1.1,2.0], respectively). However, inclusion of pH or BE did not improve the ability of the multivariable model to predict death/NDI. CONCLUSIONS Perinatal acidosis is significantly associated with death/NDI in ELBW infants. Perinatal acidosis is infrequent in ELBW infants, however, and other factors are more important in predicting death/NDI. PMID:24554564

Long-term mortality and causes of death in endoscopically verified upper gastrointestinal bleeding: comparison of bleeding patients and population controls.

PubMed

Miilunpohja, S; Jyrkkä, J; Kärkkäinen, J M; Kastarinen, H; Heikkinen, M; Paajanen, H; Rantanen, T; Hartikainen, Jek

2017-11-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common emergency, with in-hospital mortality between 3 and 14%. However, the long-term mortality and causes of death are unknown. We investigated the long-term mortality and causes of death in UGIB patients in a retrospective single-centre case-control study design. A total of 569 consecutive patients, aged ≥18 years, admitted to Kuopio University Hospital for their first endoscopically verified UGIB during the years 2009-2011 were identified from hospital records. For each UGIB patient, an age, sex and hospital district matched control patient was identified from the Statistics Finland database. Data on endoscopy procedures, laboratory values, comorbidities and medication were obtained from patient records. Data on deaths and causes of death were obtained from Statistics Finland. In-hospital mortality of UGIB patients was low at 3.3%. The long-term (mean follow-up 32 months) mortality of UGIB patients was significantly higher than controls (34.1 versus 12.1%, p < .001). During the 6 months following UGIB, the risk of death compared to controls was highest (HR 19.2, 95% CI 7.0-52.4, p < .001) and remained higher up to 3 years after the bleeding. Beyond 3 years' follow-up, there was no difference in mortality between the groups (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.4-1.6, p = .436). During the first 3 months after the UGIB episode, mortality was related to gastrointestinal diseases; after 3 months, the causes of death were related to comorbidities and did not differ from causes of death in controls. UGIB patients have three times higher long-term mortality than population controls.

Bereavement, multimorbidity and mortality: a population-based study using bereavement as an indicator of mental stress.

PubMed

Prior, A; Fenger-Grøn, M; Davydow, D S; Olsen, J; Li, J; Guldin, M-B; Vestergaard, M

2018-07-01

Mental stress is associated with higher mortality, but it remains controversial whether the association is causal or a consequence of a higher physical disease burden in those with a high mental stress load. Understanding causality is important when developing targeted interventions. We aimed to estimate the effect of mental stress on mortality by performing a 'natural' experiment using spousal bereavement as a disease-independent mental stressor. We followed a population-based matched cohort, including all individuals in Denmark bereaved in 1997-2014, for 17 years. Prospectively recorded register data were obtained for civil and vital status, 39 mental and physical diagnoses, and socioeconomic factors. In total, 389 316 bereaved individuals were identified and 137 247 died during follow-up. Bereaved individuals had higher all-cause mortality than non-bereaved references in the entire study period. The relative mortality in the bereaved individuals was highest shortly after the loss (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), first month: 2.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.37-2.63; aHR, 6-12 months: 1.38, 95% CI 1.34-1.42). The excess mortality rate associated with bereavement rose with increasing number of physical diseases (1.33 v. 7.00 excess death per 1000 person-months for individuals with 0 v. ⩾3 physical conditions during the first month) and was exacerbated by the presence of mental illness. The excess mortality among bereaved individuals was primarily due to death from natural causes. Bereavement was associated with increased short-term and long-term mortality, even after adjustment for morbidities, which suggests that mental stress may play a causal role in excess mortality.

Gender, renal function, and outcomes on the liver transplant waiting list: assessment of revised MELD including estimated glomerular filtration rate.

PubMed

Myers, Robert P; Shaheen, Abdel Aziz M; Aspinall, Alexander I; Quinn, Robert R; Burak, Kelly W

2011-03-01

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) allocation system for liver transplantation (LT) may present a disadvantage for women by including serum creatinine, which is typically lower in females. Our objectives were to investigate gender disparities in outcomes among LT candidates and to assess a revised MELD, including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), for predicting waiting list mortality. Adults registered for LT between 2002 and 2007 were identified using the UNOS database. We compared components of MELD, MDRD-derived eGFR, and the 3-month probability of LT and death between genders. Discrimination of MELD, MELDNa, and revised models including eGFR for mortality were compared using c-statistics. A total of 40,393 patients (36% female) met the inclusion criteria; 9% died and 24% underwent LT within 3 months of listing. Compared with men, women had lower median serum creatinine (0.9 vs. 1.0 mg/dl), eGFR (72 vs. 83 ml/min/1.73 m(2)), and mean MELD (16.5 vs. 17.2; all p <0.0005), but within most MELD strata, had higher bilirubin and INR. After adjusting for relevant covariates including creatinine and body weight, women were less likely than men to receive a LT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.85; 95% CI 0.79-0.87) and had greater 3-month mortality (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.05-1.21). Revision of MELD and MELDNa to include eGFR did not improve discrimination for 3-month mortality (c-statistics: MELD 0.896, MELD-eGFR 0.894, MELDNa 0.911, MELDNa-eGFR 0.905). Women are disadvantaged under MELD potentially due to its inclusion of creatinine. However, since including eGFR in MELD does not improve mortality prediction, alternative refinements are necessary. Copyright © 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary artery calcification: Complementary cardiovascular risk predictors in asymptomatic type 2 diabetics.

PubMed

Zafrir, Barak; Azaiza, Mohanad; Gaspar, Tamar; Dobrecky-Mery, Idit; Azencot, Mali; Lewis, Basil S; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Halon, David A

2015-08-01

Despite its well-established prognostic value, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is not incorporated routinely in risk assessment tools. Whether low CRF provides additional predictive information in asymptomatic type 2 diabetics beyond conventional risk scores and coronary artery calcification (CAC) is unclear. We studied 600 type 2 diabetics aged 55-74 years without known coronary heart disease. CRF was quantified in metabolic equivalents (METs) by maximal treadmill testing and categorized as tertiles of percent predicted METs (ppMETs) achieved. CAC was calculated by non-enhanced computed tomography scans. The individual and joint association of both measures with an outcome event of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, was determined over a mean follow-up period of 80 ± 16 months. There were 72 (12%) events during follow-up. Low CRF was independently associated with event risk after adjustment for traditional risk factors and CAC (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.41-3.57, p = 0.001). CRF (unfit/fit) allowed further outcome discrimination both amongst diabetics with low CAC scores (9.5% versus 2.0% event rate), and amongst diabetics with high CAC scores (23.5% versus 12.4% event rate), p < 0.001. The addition of CRF to a model comprising UKPDS and CAC scores improved the area under the curve for event prediction from 0.66 to 0.71, p = 0.03, with a positive continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.451, p = 0.002. CRF, quantified by ppMETs, provided independent prognostic information which was additive to CAC. Low CRF may identify asymptomatic diabetic subjects at higher risk for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction or stroke, despite low CAC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

T1 mapping and survival in systemic light-chain amyloidosis

PubMed Central

Banypersad, Sanjay M.; Fontana, Marianna; Maestrini, Viviana; Sado, Daniel M.; Captur, Gabriella; Petrie, Aviva; Piechnik, Stefan K.; Whelan, Carol J.; Herrey, Anna S.; Gillmore, Julian D.; Lachmann, Helen J.; Wechalekar, Ashutosh D.; Hawkins, Philip N.; Moon, James C.

2015-01-01

Aims To assess the prognostic value of myocardial pre-contrast T1 and extracellular volume (ECV) in systemic amyloid light-chain (AL) amyloidosis using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) T1 mapping. Methods and results One hundred patients underwent CMR and T1 mapping pre- and post-contrast. Myocardial ECV was calculated at contrast equilibrium (ECVi) and 15 min post-bolus (ECVb). Fifty-four healthy volunteers served as controls. Patients were followed up for a median duration of 23 months and survival analyses were performed. Mean ECVi was raised in amyloid (0.44 ± 0.12) as was ECVb (mean 0.44 ± 0.12) compared with healthy volunteers (0.25 ± 0.02), P < 0.001. Native pre-contrast T1 was raised in amyloid (mean 1080 ± 87 ms vs. 954 ± 34 ms, P < 0.001). All three correlated with pre-test probability of cardiac involvement, cardiac biomarkers, and systolic and diastolic dysfunction. During follow-up, 25 deaths occurred. An ECVi of >0.45 carried a hazard ratio (HR) for death of 3.84 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.53–9.61], P = 0.004 and pre-contrast T1 of >1044 ms = HR 5.39 (95% CI: 1.24–23.4), P = 0.02. Extracellular volume after primed infusion and ECVb performed similarly. Isolated post-contrast T1 was non-predictive. In Cox regression models, ECVi was independently predictive of mortality (HR = 4.41, 95% CI: 1.35–14.4) after adjusting for E:E′, ejection fraction, diastolic dysfunction grade, and NT-proBNP. Conclusion Myocardial ECV (bolus or infusion technique) and pre-contrast T1 are biomarkers for cardiac AL amyloid and they predict mortality in systemic amyloidosis. PMID:25411195

Anemia on admission increases the risk of mortality at 6 months and 1 year in hemorrhagic stroke patients in China.

PubMed

Zeng, Yi-Jun; Liu, Gai-Fen; Liu, Li-Ping; Wang, Chun-Xue; Zhao, Xing-Quan; Wang, Yong-Jun

2014-07-01

The relationship between anemia and intracerebral hemorrhage is not clear. We investigated the associations between anemia at the onset and mortality or dependency in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) registered at the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). The CNSR recruited consecutive patients with diagnoses of ICH in 2007-2008. Their vascular risk factors, clinical presentations, and outcomes were recorded. The mortality and dependency at 1, 3, and 6 months and at 1 year were compared between ICH patients with and without anemia. A favorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 2 or less and a poor outcome as an mRS score of 3 or more. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to analyze the association between anemia and the 2 outcomes after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, history of smoking and heavy drinking, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, random glucose value on admission, and hematoma volume. Anemia was identified in 484 (19%) ICH patients. Compared with ICH patients without anemia, patients with anemia had no difference in mortality rate at discharge and at 1 month. The rate of mortality at 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and dependency at 1 year were significantly higher for those patients with anemia than those without (P<.05, P<.001, P<.001, and P<.05, respectively). After adjusting for potential confounders, anemia was an independent risk factor for death at 6 months and 1 year (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=1.338, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.78, and adjusted OR=1.326, 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.75) in ICH patients. Anemia independently predicted mortality at 6 months and 1 year after the initial episode of intercerebral hemorrhage. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Socio-economic patterning in early mortality of patients aged 0-49 years diagnosed with primary bone cancer in Great Britain, 1985-2008.

PubMed

Blakey, Karen; Feltbower, Richard G; James, Peter W; Libby, Gillian; Stiller, Charles; Norman, Paul; Gerrand, Craig; McNally, Richard J Q

2018-04-01

Studies have shown marked improvements in survival between 1981 and 2000 for Ewing sarcoma patients but not for osteosarcoma. This study aimed to explore socio-economic patterning in early mortality rates for both tumours. The study analysed all 2432 osteosarcoma and 1619 Ewing sarcoma cases, aged 0-49 years, diagnosed in Great Britain 1985-2008 and followed to 31/12/2009. Logistic regression models were used to calculate risk of dying within three months, six months, one year, three years and five years after diagnosis. Associations with Townsend deprivation score and its components were examined at small-area level. Urban/rural status was studied at larger regional level. For osteosarcoma, after age adjustment, mortality at three months, six months and one year was associated with higher area unemployment, OR = 1.05 (95% CI 1.00, 1.10), OR = 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.08) and OR = 1.04 (95% CI 1.02, 1.06) respectively per 1% increase in unemployment. Mortality at six months was associated with greater household non-car ownership, OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.00, 1.03). For Ewing sarcoma, there were no significant associations between mortality and overall Townsend score, nor its components for any time period. For both tumours increasing mortality was associated with less urban and more remote rural areas. This study found that for osteosarcoma, early mortality was associated with residence at diagnosis in areas of higher unemployment, suggesting risk of early death may be socio-economically determined. For both tumours, distance from urban centres may lead to greater risk of early death. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low perceived social support and post-myocardial infarction prognosis in the enhancing recovery in coronary heart disease clinical trial: the effects of treatment.

PubMed

Burg, Matthew M; Barefoot, John; Berkman, Lisa; Catellier, Diane J; Czajkowski, Susan; Saab, Patrice; Huber, Marc; DeLillo, Vicki; Mitchell, Pamela; Skala, Judy; Taylor, C Barr

2005-01-01

In post hoc analyses, to examine in low perceived social support (LPSS) patients enrolled in the Enhancing Recovery in Coronary Heart Disease (ENRICHD) clinical trial (n = 1503), the pattern of social support following myocardial infarction (MI), the impact of psychosocial intervention on perceived support, the relationship of perceived support at the time of MI to subsequent death and recurrent MI, and the relationship of change in perceived support 6 months after MI to subsequent mortality. Partner status (partner, no partner) and score (<12 = low support; >12 = moderate support) on the ENRICHD Social Support Instrument (ESSI) were used post hoc to define four levels of risk. The resulting 4 LPSS risk groups were compared on baseline characteristics, changes in social support, and medical outcomes to a group of concurrently enrolled acute myocardial infarction patients without depression or LPSS (MI comparison group, n = 408). Effects of treatment assignment on LPSS and death/recurrent MI were also examined. All 4 LPSS risk groups demonstrated improvement in perceived support, regardless of treatment assignment, with a significant treatment effect only seen in the LPSS risk group with no partner and moderate support at baseline. During an average 29-month follow-up, the combined end point of death/nonfatal MI was 10% in the MI comparison group and 23% in the ENRICHD LPSS patients; LPSS conferred a greater risk in unadjusted and adjusted models (HR = 1.74-2.39). Change in ESSI score and/or improvement in perceived social support were not found to predict subsequent mortality. Baseline LPSS predicted death/recurrent MI in the ENRICHD cohort, independent of treatment assignment. Intervention effects indicated a partner surrogacy role for the interventionist and the need for a moderate level of support at baseline for the intervention to be effective.

Both in- and out-hospital worsening of renal function predict outcome in patients with heart failure: results from the Coordinating Study Evaluating Outcome of Advising and Counseling in Heart Failure (COACH).

PubMed

Damman, Kevin; Jaarsma, Tiny; Voors, Adriaan A; Navis, Gerjan; Hillege, Hans L; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J

2009-09-01

The effect of worsening renal function (WRF) after discharge on outcome in patients with heart failure is unknown. We assessed estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and serum creatinine at admission, discharge, and 6 and 12 months after discharge, in 1023 heart failure patients. Worsening renal function was defined as an increase in serum creatinine of >26.5 micromol/L and >25%. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality and heart failure admissions. The mean age of patients was 71 +/- 11 years, and 62% was male. Mean eGFR at admission was 55 +/- 21 mL/min/1.73 m(2). In-hospital WRF occurred in 11% of patients, while 16 and 9% experienced WRF from 0 to 6, and 6 to 12 months after discharge, respectively. In multivariate landmark analysis, WRF at any point in time was associated with a higher incidence of the primary endpoint: hazard ratio (HR) 1.63 (1.10-2.40), P = 0.014 for in-hospital WRF, HR 2.06 (1.13-3.74), P = 0.018 for WRF between 0-6 months, and HR 5.03 (2.13-11.88), P < 0.001 for WRF between 6-12 months. Both in- and out-hospital worsening of renal function are independently related to poor prognosis in patients with heart failure, suggesting that renal function in heart failure patients should be monitored long after discharge.

Ratio of Systolic Blood Pressure to Right Atrial Pressure, a Novel Marker to Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Acute Systolic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Omar, Hesham R; Charnigo, Richard; Guglin, Maya

2017-04-01

Congestion is the main contributor to heart failure (HF) morbidity and mortality. We assessed the combined role of congestion and decreased forward flow in predicting morbidity and mortality in acute systolic HF. The Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness trial data set was used to determine if the ratio of simultaneously measured systolic blood pressure (SBP)/right atrial pressure (RAP) on admission predicted HF rehospitalization and 6-month mortality. One hundred ninety-five patients (mean age 56.5 years, 75% men) who received pulmonary artery catheterization were studied. The RAP, SBP, and SBP/RAP had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.593 (p = 0.0205), 0.585 (p = 0.0359), and 0.621 (p = 0.0026), respectively, in predicting HF rehospitalization. The SBP/RAP was a superior marker of HF rehospitalization compared with RAP alone (difference in AUC 0.0289, p = 0.0385). The optimal criterion of SBP/RAP <11 provided the highest combined sensitivity (77.1%) and specificity (50.9%) in predicting HF rehospitalization. The SBP/RAP had an AUC 0.622, p = 0.0108, and a cut-off value of SBP/RAP <8 had a sensitivity of 61.9% and specificity 64.1% in predicting mortality. Multivariate analysis showed that an SBP/RAP <11 independently predicted rehospitalization for HF (estimated odds ratio 3.318, 95% confidence interval 1.692 to 6.506, p = 0.0005) and an SBP/RAP <8 independently predicted mortality (estimated hazard ratio 2.025, 95% confidence interval 1.069 to 3.833, p = 0.030). In conclusion, SBP/RAP ratio is a marker that identifies a spectrum of complications after hospitalization of patients with decompensated systolic HF, starting with increased incidence of HF rehospitalization at SBP/RAP <11 to increased mortality with SBP/RAP <8. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-specific effect of measles vaccination on overall child mortality in an area of rural India with high vaccination coverage: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Kabir, Zubair; Long, Jean; Reddaiah, Vankadara P; Kevany, John; Kapoor, Suresh K

2003-01-01

To determine whether vaccination against measles in a population with sustained high vaccination coverage and relatively low child mortality reduces overall child mortality. In April and May 2000, a population-based, case-control study was conducted at Ballabgarh (an area in rural northern India). Eligible cases were 330 children born between 1 January 1991 and 31 December 1998 who died aged 12-59 months. A programme was used to match 320 controls for age, sex, family size, and area of residence from a birth cohort of 15 578 born during the same time period. The analysis used 318 matched pairs and suggested that children aged 12-59 months who did not receive measles vaccination in infancy were three times more likely to die than those vaccinated against measles. Children from lower caste households who were not vaccinated in infancy had the highest risk of mortality (odds ratio, 8.9). A 27% increase in child mortality was attributable to failure to vaccinate against measles in the study population. Measles vaccine seems to have a non-specific reducing effect on overall child mortality in this population. If true, children in lower castes may reap the greatest gains in survival. The findings should be interpreted with caution because the nutritional status of the children was not recorded and may be a residual confounder. "All-cause mortality" is a potentially useful epidemiological endpoint for future vaccine trials.

When to Monitor CD4 Cell Count and HIV RNA to Reduce Mortality and AIDS-Defining Illness in Virologically Suppressed HIV-Positive Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries: A Prospective Observational Study

PubMed Central

Caniglia, Ellen C.; Sabin, Caroline; Robins, James M.; Logan, Roger; Cain, Lauren E.; Abgrall, Sophie; Mugavero, Michael J.; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Meyer, Laurence; Seng, Remonie; Drozd, Daniel R.; Seage, George R.; Bonnet, Fabrice; Dabis, Francois; Moore, Richard R.; Reiss, Peter; van Sighem, Ard; Mathews, William C.; del Amo, Julia; Moreno, Santiago; Deeks, Steven G.; Muga, Roberto; Boswell, Stephen L.; Ferrer, Elena; Eron, Joseph J.; Napravnik, Sonia; Jose, Sophie; Phillips, Andrew; Olson, Ashley; Justice, Amy C.; Tate, Janet P.; Bucher, Heiner C.; Egger, Matthias; Touloumi, Giota; Sterne, Jonathan A.; Costagliola, Dominique; Saag, Michael; Hernán, Miguel A.

2016-01-01

Objective: To illustrate an approach to compare CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Design: Prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe and the USA in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. Methods: Antiretroviral-naive individuals who initiated ART and became virologically suppressed within 12 months were followed from the date of suppression. We compared 3 CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies: once every (1) 3 ± 1 months, (2) 6 ± 1 months, and (3) 9–12 ± 1 months. We used inverse-probability weighted models to compare these strategies with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. Results: In 39,029 eligible individuals, there were 265 deaths and 690 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths. Compared with the 3-month strategy, the mortality hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.86 (0.42 to 1.78) for the 6 months and 0.82 (0.46 to 1.47) for the 9–12 month strategy. The respective 18-month risk ratios (95% CIs) of virologic failure (RNA >200) were 0.74 (0.46 to 1.19) and 2.35 (1.56 to 3.54) and 18-month mean CD4 differences (95% CIs) were −5.3 (−18.6 to 7.9) and −31.7 (−52.0 to −11.3). The estimates for the 2-year risk of AIDS-defining illness or death were similar across strategies. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that monitoring frequency of virologically suppressed individuals can be decreased from every 3 months to every 6, 9, or 12 months with respect to clinical outcomes. Because effects of different monitoring strategies could take years to materialize, longer follow-up is needed to fully evaluate this question. PMID:26895294

Estimated mortality of adult HIV-infected patients starting treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

Yiannoutsos, Constantin Theodore; Johnson, Leigh Francis; Boulle, Andrew; Musick, Beverly Sue; Gsponer, Thomas; Balestre, Eric; Law, Matthew; Shepherd, Bryan E; Egger, Matthias

2012-01-01

Objective To provide estimates of mortality among HIV-infected patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy. Methods We report on the death rates from 122 925 adult HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older from East, Southern and West Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America. We use two methods to adjust for biases in mortality estimation resulting from loss from follow-up, based on double-sampling methods applied to patient outreach (Kenya) and linkage with vital registries (South Africa), and apply these to mortality estimates in the other three regions. Age, gender and CD4 count at the initiation of therapy were the factors considered as predictors of mortality at 6, 12, 24 and >24 months after the start of treatment. Results Patient mortality was high during the first 6 months after therapy for all patient subgroups and exceeded 40 per 100 patient years among patients who started treatment at low CD4 count. This trend was seen regardless of region, demographic or disease-related risk factor. Mortality was under-reported by up to or exceeding 100% when comparing estimates obtained from passive monitoring of patient vital status. Conclusions Despite advances in antiretroviral treatment coverage many patients start treatment at very low CD4 counts and experience significant mortality during the first 6 months after treatment initiation. Active patient tracing and linkage with vital registries are critical in adjusting estimates of mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income settings. PMID:23172344

Net atrioventricular compliance is an independent predictor of cardiovascular death in mitral stenosis.

PubMed

Nunes, Maria Carmo Pereira; Tan, Timothy C; Elmariah, Sammy; Lodi-Junqueira, Lucas; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; do Lago, Rodrigo; Padilha da Silva, Jose Luiz; Reis, Rodrigo Citton Padilha; Zeng, Xin; Palacios, Igor F; Hung, Judy; Levine, Robert A

2017-12-01

Rheumatic mitral stenosis (MS) is a progressive disease, and risk of death may persist despite relief of the obstruction. Net atrioventricular compliance (C n ) modulates the overall haemodynamic burden of the MS and may be useful in predicting cardiovascular death after percutaneous mitral valvuloplasty (PMV). A total of 427 patients (mean age 50±16 years, 84% female) with severe MS undergoing PMV were enrolled. Doppler-derived C n was estimated at baseline using a previously validated equation. The primary endpoint was late cardiovascular death, and the secondary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality, mitral valve (MV) replacement or repeat PMV over a median follow-up of 31 months (IQR: 7.8-49.2 months). At baseline, 209 patients (49%) were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class III or IV. During follow-up, 49 patients died (41 cardiovascular deaths), 50 underwent MV replacement and 12 required repeat PMV, with an overall incidence of cardiac mortality and adverse events of 4.1 deaths and 11.1 events per 100 patient-years, respectively. Low baseline C n was a strong predictor of both cardiac death (adjusted HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.86) and composite endpoint (adjusted HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.91) after adjusting for clinical factors, baseline pulmonary artery pressure, tricuspid regurgitation severity, right ventricular function and immediate procedural haemodynamic data. The inclusion of C n in a model with conventional parameters resulted in improvement in 5-year cardiovascular mortality risk prediction. Baseline C n is a strong predictor of cardiovascular death in patients with MS undergoing PMV, independent of other prognostic markers of decreased survival in MS, including baseline patient characteristics and postprocedural data. C n assessment therefore has potential value in evaluation of cardiovascular mortality risk in the setting of MS. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The Validity of Two Neuromotor Assessments for Predicting Motor Performance at 12 Months in Preterm Infants.

PubMed

Song, You Hong; Chang, Hyun Jung; Shin, Yong Beom; Park, Young Sook; Park, Yun Hee; Cho, Eun Sol

2018-04-01

To evaluate the validity of the Test of Infant Motor Performance (TIMP) and general movements (GMs) assessment for predicting Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) score at 12 months in preterm infants. A total of 44 preterm infants who underwent the GMs and TIMP at 1 month and 3 months of corrected age (CA) and whose motor performance was evaluated using AIMS at 12 months CA were included. GMs were judged as abnormal on basis of poor repertoire or cramped-synchronized movements at 1 month CA and abnormal or absent fidgety movement at 3 months CA. TIMP and AIMS scores were categorized as normal (average and low average and >5th percentile, respectively) or abnormal (below average and far below average or <5th percentile, respectively). Correlations between GMs and TIMP scores at 1 month and 3 months CA and the AIMS classification at 12 months CA were examined. The TIMP score at 3 months CA and GMs at 1 month and 3 months CA were significantly correlated with the motor performance at 12 months CA. However, the TIMP score at 1 month CA did not correlate with the AIMS classification at 12 months CA. For infants with normal GMs at 3 months CA, the TIMP score at 3 months CA correlated significantly with the AIMS classification at 12 months CA. Our findings suggest that neuromotor assessment using GMs and TIMP could be useful to identify preterm infants who are likely to benefit from intervention.

Outcomes of decompressive craniectomy in patients after traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Nambiar, Mithun; MacIsaac, Christopher; Grabinski, Rafal; Liew, Danny; Kavar, Bhadrakant

2015-06-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can result in cerebral oedema and vascular changes resulting in an increase in intracranial pressure (ICP), which can lead to further secondary damage. Decompressive craniectomy (DC) is a surgical option in the management of ICP. We aimed to investigate outcomes of DC after TBI. We performed a retrospective audit of 57 adult patients (aged > 15 years) who underwent DC after TBI, at the Royal Melbourne Hospital from 1 January 2005 to 30 June 2011. Our functional outcome measure was the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE). Patients had a median age of 30 years (range, 17- 73 years). The hospital mortality rate was 47% (27 patients). A higher postoperative median ICP was the most significant predictor of hospital mortality (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1-1.3). There was a mean decrease of 7.7mmHg in ICP between the mean preoperative and postoperative ICP values (95% CI, - 10.5 to - 5.0mmHg). There was a mean decrease of 3.5mmHg in the mean cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) from preoperative to postoperative CPP values (95% CI, - 6.2 to - 0.8mmHg). At the 6-month follow-up, a poor outcome (GOSE score, 1-4) was seen in 39 patients (68%), while a good outcome (GOSE score, 5- 8) was noted in 15 patients (26%). A high APACHE II score on admission was the most significant predictor of a worse GOSE score at 6 months (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5). Analysis of the APACHE II and IMPACT scores as models for predicting mortality at 6 months showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.792 and 0.805, respectively, and for predicting poor outcome at 6 months, showed an AUC of 0.862 and 0.883, respectively. DC decreased ICP postoperatively. The IMPACT and APACHE II scores are good models for prediction of death and poor outcome at 6 months.

Optimal Management Strategies for Primary HPV Testing for Cervical Screening: Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation for the National Cervical Screening Program in Australia.

PubMed

Simms, Kate T; Hall, Michaela; Smith, Megan A; Lew, Jie-Bin; Hughes, Suzanne; Yuill, Susan; Hammond, Ian; Saville, Marion; Canfell, Karen

2017-01-01

Several countries are implementing a transition to HPV testing for cervical screening in response to the introduction of HPV vaccination and evidence indicating that HPV screening is more effective than cytology. In Australia, a 2017 transition from 2-yearly conventional cytology in 18-20 to 69 years to 5-yearly primary HPV screening in 25 to 74 years will involve partial genotyping for HPV 16/18 with direct referral to colposcopy for this higher risk group. The objective of this study was to determine the optimal management of women positive for other high-risk HPV types (not 16/18) ('OHR HPV'). We used a dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening to determine the optimal management of women positive for OHR HPV. We assumed cytology triage testing was used to inform management in this group and that those with high-grade cytology would be referred to colposcopy and those with negative cytology would receive 12-month surveillance. For those with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology (considered to be a single low-grade category in Australia incorporating ASC-US and LSIL), we evaluated (1) the 20-year risk of invasive cervical cancer assuming this group are referred for 12-month follow-up vs. colposcopy, and compared this to the risk in women with low-grade cytology under the current program (i.e. an accepted benchmark risk for 12-month follow-up in Australia); (2) the population-level impact of the whole program, assuming this group are referred to 12-month surveillance vs. colposcopy; and (3) the cost-effectiveness of immediate colposcopy compared to 12-month follow-up. Evaluation was performed both for HPV-unvaccinated cohorts and cohorts offered vaccination (coverage ~72%). The estimated 20-year risk of cervical cancer is ≤1.0% at all ages if this group are referred to colposcopy vs. ≤1.2% if followed-up in 12 months, both of which are lower than the ≤2.6% benchmark risk in women with low-grade cytology in the current program (who are returned for 12-month follow-up). At the population level, immediate colposcopy referral provides an incremental 1-3% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and mortality compared with 12-month follow-up, but this is in the context of a predicted 24-36% reduction associated with the new HPV screening program compared to the current cytology-based program. Furthermore, immediate colposcopy substantially increases the predicted number of colposcopies, with >650 additional colposcopies required to avert each additional case of cervical cancer compared to 12-month follow-up. Compared to 12-month follow-up, immediate colposcopy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$104,600/LYS (95%CrI:A$100,100-109,100) in unvaccinated women and A$117,100/LYS (95%CrI:A$112,300-122,000) in cohorts offered vaccination [Indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: A$50,000/LYS]. In primary HPV screening programs, partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or high-grade triage cytology in OHR HPV positive women can be used to refer the highest risk group to colposcopy, but 12-month follow-up for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology is associated with a low risk of developing cervical cancer. Direct referral to colposcopy for this group would be associated with a substantial increase in colposcopy referrals and the associated harms, and is also cost-ineffective; thus, 12-month surveillance for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology provides the best balance between benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness.

Optimal Management Strategies for Primary HPV Testing for Cervical Screening: Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation for the National Cervical Screening Program in Australia

PubMed Central

Hall, Michaela; Lew, Jie-Bin; Hughes, Suzanne; Yuill, Susan; Hammond, Ian; Saville, Marion; Canfell, Karen

2017-01-01

Background Several countries are implementing a transition to HPV testing for cervical screening in response to the introduction of HPV vaccination and evidence indicating that HPV screening is more effective than cytology. In Australia, a 2017 transition from 2-yearly conventional cytology in 18–20 to 69 years to 5-yearly primary HPV screening in 25 to 74 years will involve partial genotyping for HPV 16/18 with direct referral to colposcopy for this higher risk group. The objective of this study was to determine the optimal management of women positive for other high-risk HPV types (not 16/18) ('OHR HPV'). Methods We used a dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening to determine the optimal management of women positive for OHR HPV. We assumed cytology triage testing was used to inform management in this group and that those with high-grade cytology would be referred to colposcopy and those with negative cytology would receive 12-month surveillance. For those with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology (considered to be a single low-grade category in Australia incorporating ASC-US and LSIL), we evaluated (1) the 20-year risk of invasive cervical cancer assuming this group are referred for 12-month follow-up vs. colposcopy, and compared this to the risk in women with low-grade cytology under the current program (i.e. an accepted benchmark risk for 12-month follow-up in Australia); (2) the population-level impact of the whole program, assuming this group are referred to 12-month surveillance vs. colposcopy; and (3) the cost-effectiveness of immediate colposcopy compared to 12-month follow-up. Evaluation was performed both for HPV-unvaccinated cohorts and cohorts offered vaccination (coverage ~72%). Findings The estimated 20-year risk of cervical cancer is ≤1.0% at all ages if this group are referred to colposcopy vs. ≤1.2% if followed-up in 12 months, both of which are lower than the ≤2.6% benchmark risk in women with low-grade cytology in the current program (who are returned for 12-month follow-up). At the population level, immediate colposcopy referral provides an incremental 1–3% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and mortality compared with 12-month follow-up, but this is in the context of a predicted 24–36% reduction associated with the new HPV screening program compared to the current cytology-based program. Furthermore, immediate colposcopy substantially increases the predicted number of colposcopies, with >650 additional colposcopies required to avert each additional case of cervical cancer compared to 12-month follow-up. Compared to 12-month follow-up, immediate colposcopy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$104,600/LYS (95%CrI:A$100,100–109,100) in unvaccinated women and A$117,100/LYS (95%CrI:A$112,300–122,000) in cohorts offered vaccination [Indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: A$50,000/LYS]. Conclusions In primary HPV screening programs, partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or high-grade triage cytology in OHR HPV positive women can be used to refer the highest risk group to colposcopy, but 12-month follow-up for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology is associated with a low risk of developing cervical cancer. Direct referral to colposcopy for this group would be associated with a substantial increase in colposcopy referrals and the associated harms, and is also cost-ineffective; thus, 12-month surveillance for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology provides the best balance between benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness. PMID:28095411

Prevalence, Clinical Profile, and Outcome of Ascitic Fluid Infection in Children With Liver Disease.

PubMed

Srivastava, Anshu; Malik, Rohan; Bolia, Rishi; Yachha, Surender K; Poddar, Ujjal

2017-02-01

Pediatric literature on spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is limited. We evaluated the prevalence, subtypes, clinical profile, and effect on outcome of ascitic fluid infection (AFI) in children with liver disease. Children with liver disease-related ascites and subjected to paracentesis were classified as no-AFI and AFI (SBP, culture-negative neutrocytic ascites [CNNA], and monomicrobial non-neutrocytic bacterascites). Clinical and laboratory parameters, in-hospital mortality, and outcome in follow-up were noted. Two hundred sixty-two children (163 boys; age 84 [1-240] months, chronic liver disease [CLD, n = 173], non-CLD [n = 89]) were enrolled. A total of 28.6% (n = 75) had SBP/CNNA, more common in CLD than non-CLD (55/173 [31.7%] vs 20/89 [22.4%]; P = 0.1). A total of 50.6% SBP/CNNA cases were symptomatic for AFI. Gram-negative bacilli were isolated from 70% SBP cases. Twenty-five percent (18/72) CLD children with AFI had a poor hospital outcome, with INR, Child-Pugh score and gastrointestinal bleeding predicting outcome on multivariate analysis. Patients with CLD with SBP had higher in-hospital mortality (10/20 vs 5/35; P = 0.01) than those with CNNA, but similar Child-Pugh score (12[7-15] vs 11[7-14]; P = 0.1), recurrence of AFI (3/9 vs 6/24; P = 0.6) and mortality in follow-up (22.2% vs 25%; P = 0.1). Patients with CLD with SBP/CNNA had higher mortality over 1 year follow-up than no-AFI (24.2% [8/33] vs 12.2% [7/57]; P = 0.1) but the difference was not significant. A total of 28.6% children with liver disease-related ascites have SBP/CNNA; 50% are symptomatic. Patients with CLD with SBP/CNNA have a mortality of 24% over 1year follow-up. CLD with SBP is similar to CNNA except for higher in-hospital mortality.

Effects of severe obstetric complications on women’s health and infant mortality in Benin

PubMed Central

Filippi, Véronique; Goufodji, Sourou; Sismanidis, Charalambos; Kanhonou, Lydie; Fottrell, Edward; Ronsmans, Carine; Alihonou, Eusèbe; Patel, Vikram

2010-01-01

Summary Objective To document the impact of severe obstetric complications on post-partum health in mothers and mortality in babies over 12 months in Benin and to assess whether severe complications associated with perinatal death are particularly likely to lead to adverse health consequences. Methods Cohort study which followed women and their babies after a severe complication or an uncomplicated childbirth. Women were selected in hospitals and interviewed at home at discharge, and at 6 and 12 months post-partum. Women were invited for a medical check-up at 6 months and 12 months. Results The cohort includes 205 women with severe complications and a live birth, 64 women with severe complications and perinatal death and 440 women with uncomplicated delivery. Women with severe complications and a live birth were not dissimilar to women with a normal delivery in terms of post-partum health, except for hypertension [adjusted OR = 5.8 (1.9–17.0)], fever [adjusted OR = 1.71 (1.1–2.8)] and infant mortality [adjusted OR = 11.0 (0.8–158.2)]. Women with complications and perinatal death were at increased risk of depression [adjusted OR = 3.4 (1.3–9.0)], urine leakages [adjusted OR = 2.7 (1.2–5.8)], and to report poor health [adjusted OR = 5.27 (2.2–12.4)] and pregnancy’s negative effects on their life [adjusted OR = 4.11 (1.9–9.0)]. Uptake of post-natal services was poor in all groups. Conclusion Women in developing countries face a high risk of severe complications during pregnancy and delivery. These can lead to adverse consequences for their own health and that of their offspring. Resources are needed to ensure that pregnant women receive adequate care before, during and after discharge from hospital. Near-miss women with a perinatal death appear a particularly high-risk group. PMID:20406426

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement using a self-expanding bioprosthesis in patients with severe aortic stenosis at extreme risk for surgery.

PubMed

Popma, Jeffrey J; Adams, David H; Reardon, Michael J; Yakubov, Steven J; Kleiman, Neal S; Heimansohn, David; Hermiller, James; Hughes, G Chad; Harrison, J Kevin; Coselli, Joseph; Diez, Jose; Kafi, Ali; Schreiber, Theodore; Gleason, Thomas G; Conte, John; Buchbinder, Maurice; Deeb, G Michael; Carabello, Blasé; Serruys, Patrick W; Chenoweth, Sharla; Oh, Jae K

2014-05-20

This study sought to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the CoreValve transcatheter heart valve (THV) for the treatment of severe aortic stenosis in patients at extreme risk for surgery. Untreated severe aortic stenosis is a progressive disease with a poor prognosis. Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) with a self-expanding bioprosthesis is a potentially effective therapy. We performed a prospective, multicenter, nonrandomized investigation evaluating the safety and efficacy of self-expanding TAVR in patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis with prohibitive risks for surgery. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality or major stroke at 12 months, which was compared with a pre-specified objective performance goal (OPG). A total of 41 sites in the United States recruited 506 patients, of whom 489 underwent attempted treatment with the CoreValve THV. The rate of all-cause mortality or major stroke at 12 months was 26.0% (upper 2-sided 95% confidence bound: 29.9%) versus 43.0% with the OPG (p < 0.0001). Individual 30-day and 12-month events included all-cause mortality (8.4% and 24.3%, respectively) and major stroke (2.3% and 4.3%, respectively). Procedural events at 30 days included life-threatening/disabling bleeding (12.7%), major vascular complications (8.2%), and need for permanent pacemaker placement (21.6%). The frequency of moderate or severe paravalvular aortic regurgitation was lower 12 months after self-expanding TAVR (4.2%) than at discharge (10.7%; p = 0.004 for paired analysis). TAVR with a self-expanding bioprosthesis was safe and effective in patients with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis at prohibitive risk for surgical valve replacement. (Safety and Efficacy Study of the Medtronic CoreValve System in the Treatment of Symptomatic Severe Aortic Stenosis in High Risk and Very High Risk Subjects Who Need Aortic Valve Replacement; NCT01240902). Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Right Ventricular Performance in Patients Undergoing Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Following Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Bartko, Philipp E; Wiedemann, Dominik; Schrutka, Lore; Binder, Christina; Santos-Gallego, Carlos G; Zuckermann, Andreas; Steinlechner, Barbara; Koinig, Herbert; Heinz, Gottfried; Niessner, Alexander; Zimpfer, Daniel; Laufer, Günther; Lang, Irene M; Distelmaier, Klaus; Goliasch, Georg

2017-07-28

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation following cardiac surgery safeguards end-organ oxygenation but unfavorably alters cardiac hemodynamics. Along with the detrimental effects of cardiac surgery to the right heart, this might impact outcome, particularly in patients with preexisting right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. We sought to determine the prognostic impact of RV function and to improve established risk-prediction models in this vulnerable patient cohort. Of 240 patients undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support following cardiac surgery, 111 had echocardiographic examinations at our institution before implantation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and were thus included. Median age was 67 years (interquartile range 60-74), and 74 patients were male. During a median follow-up of 27 months (interquartile range 16-63), 75 patients died. Fifty-one patients died within 30 days, 75 during long-term follow-up (median follow-up 27 months, minimum 5 months, maximum 125 months). Metrics of RV function were the strongest predictors of outcome, even stronger than left ventricular function ( P <0.001 for receiver operating characteristics comparisons). Specifically, RV free-wall strain was a powerful predictor univariately and after adjustment for clinical variables, Simplified Acute Physiology Score-3, tricuspid regurgitation, surgery type and duration with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.41 (95%CI 0.24-0.68; P =0.001) for 30-day mortality and 0.48 (95%CI 0.33-0.71; P <0.001) for long-term mortality for a 1-SD (SD=-6%) change in RV free-wall strain. Combined assessment of the additive EuroSCORE and RV free-wall strain improved risk classification by a net reclassification improvement of 57% for 30-day mortality ( P =0.01) and 56% for long-term mortality ( P =0.02) compared with the additive EuroSCORE alone. RV function is strongly linked to mortality, even after adjustment for baseline variables and clinical risk scores. RV performance improves established risk prediction models for short- and long-term mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Observed fearlessness and positive parenting interact to predict childhood callous-unemotional behaviors among low-income boys.

PubMed

Waller, Rebecca; Shaw, Daniel S; Hyde, Luke W

2017-03-01

Callous-unemotional behaviors identify children at risk for severe and chronic antisocial behavior. Research is needed to establish pathways from temperament and parenting factors that give rise to callous-unemotional behaviors, including interactions of positive versus harsh parenting with child fearlessness. Multimethod data, including parent reports and observations of parent and child behavior, were drawn from a prospective, longitudinal sample of low-income boys (N = 310) with assessments at 18, 24, and 42 months, and at ages 10-12 years old. Parent-reported callous-unemotional, oppositional, and attention-deficit factors were separable at 42 months. Callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at ages 10-12, accounting for earlier oppositional and attention-deficit behaviors and self-reported child delinquency at ages 10-12. Observations of fearlessness at 24 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months, but only when parents exhibited low observed levels of positive parenting. The interaction of fearlessness and low positive parenting indirectly predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 10-12 via callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months. Early fearlessness interacts with low positive parenting to predict early callous-unemotional behaviors, with lasting effects of this person-by-context interaction on callous-unemotional behaviors into late childhood. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Mortality at older ages and moves in residential and sheltered housing: evidence from the UK.

PubMed

Robards, James; Evandrou, Maria; Falkingham, Jane; Vlachantoni, Athina

2014-06-01

The study examines the relationship between transitions to residential and sheltered housing and mortality. Past research has focused on housing moves over extended time periods and subsequent mortality. In this paper, annual housing transitions allow the identification of the patterning of housing moves, the duration of stay in each sector and the assessment of the relationship of preceding moves to a heightened risk of dying. The study uses longitudinal data constructed from pooled observations from the British Household Panel Survey (waves 1993-2008). Records were pooled for all cases where the survey member is 65 years or over and living in private housing at baseline and observed at three consecutive time points, including baseline (N=23 727). Binary logistic regression (death as outcome three waves after baseline) explored the relative strength of different housing transitions, controlling for sociodemographic predictors. (1) Transition to residential housing within the previous 12 months was associated with the highest mortality risk. (2) Results support existing findings showing an interaction between marital status and mortality, whereby unmarried persons were more likely to die. (3) Higher male mortality was observed across all housing transitions. An older person's move to residential housing is associated with a higher risk of mortality within 12 months of the move. Survivors living in residential housing for more than a year, show a similar probability of dying to those living in sheltered housing. Results highlight that it is the type of accommodation that affects an older person's mortality risk, and the length of time they spend there.

Mortality in HIV-Infected Alcohol and Drug Users in St. Petersburg, Russia.

PubMed

Fairbairn, Nadia S; Walley, Alexander Y; Cheng, Debbie M; Quinn, Emily; Bridden, Carly; Chaisson, Christine; Blokhina, Elena; Lioznov, Dmitry; Krupitsky, Evgeny; Raj, Anita; Samet, Jeffrey H

2016-01-01

In Russia, up to half of premature deaths are attributed to hazardous drinking. The respective roles of alcohol and drug use in premature death among people with HIV in Russia have not been described. Criminalization and stigmatization of substance use in Russia may also contribute to mortality. We explored whether alcohol, drug use and risk environment factors are associated with short-term mortality in HIV-infected Russians who use substances. Secondary analyses were conducted using prospective data collected at baseline, 6 and 12-months from HIV-infected people who use substances recruited between 2007-2010 from addiction and HIV care settings in a single urban setting of St. Petersburg, Russia. We used Cox proportional hazards models to explore associations between 30-day alcohol hazardous drinking, injection drug use, polysubstance use and environmental risk exposures (i.e. past incarceration, police involvement, selling sex, and HIV stigma) with mortality. Among 700 participants, 59% were male and the mean age was 30 years. There were 40 deaths after a median follow-up of 12 months (crude mortality rate 5.9 per 100 person-years). In adjusted analyses, 30-day NIAAA hazardous drinking was significantly associated with mortality compared to no drinking [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 2.60, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.24-5.44] but moderate drinking was not (aHR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.35-2.59). No other factors were significantly associated with mortality. The high rates of short-term mortality and the strong association with hazardous drinking suggest a need to integrate evidence-based alcohol interventions into treatment strategies for HIV-infected Russians.

Use of resources and postoperative outcome.

PubMed

Niskanen, M M; Takala, J A

2001-09-01

To characterise those surgical patients who consume one half of all hospital patient days, and to compare their outcome with that of low consumers. A retrospective cohort study. Tertiary referral centre, Finland. 13025 surgical patients who were admitted to a university hospital in Kuopio, Finland, during 1997. The length of stay below which half of all patient days fell was chosen as a cut-off value to divide patients into low and high consumers. Hospital and 12-month mortality and standardised mortality ratios (SMR: observed deaths/expected deaths based on the corresponding general population). The 2239 patients (17%) whose length of stay exceeded 9 days (high consumers) took up one half of all patient days. The pattern of resource use varied between operative specialities. At 12 months the SMRs showed excess mortality among high consumers (5.0, 95% confidence interval 4.4 to 5.7) compared with low consumers (2.1, 95% CI 1.9 to 2.3). Relating the length of stay to the proportion of resources consumed may provide a feasible tool for the recognition of different patterns of use of resources. SMRs may be more relevant measures of outcome than hospital mortality when assessing the efficacy of operative treatment.

Pilot study on the combination of an organophosphate-based insecticide paint and pyrethroid-treated long lasting nets against pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Mosqueira, Beatriz; Soma, Dieudonné D; Namountougou, Moussa; Poda, Serge; Diabaté, Abdoulaye; Ali, Ouari; Fournet, Florence; Baldet, Thierry; Carnevale, Pierre; Dabiré, Roch K; Mas-Coma, Santiago

2015-08-01

A pilot study to test the efficacy of combining an organophosphate-based insecticide paint and pyrethroid-treated Long Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets (LLINs) against pyrethroid-resistant malaria vector mosquitoes was performed in a real village setting in Burkina Faso. Paint Inesfly 5A IGR™, comprised of two organophosphates (OPs) and an Insect Growth Regulator (IGR), was tested in combination with pyrethroid-treated LLINs. Efficacy was assessed in terms of mortality for 12 months using Early Morning Collections of malaria vectors and 30-minute WHO bioassays. Resistance to pyrethroids and OPs was assessed by detecting the frequency of L1014F and L1014S kdr mutations and Ace-1(R)G119S mutation, respectively. Blood meal origin was identified using a direct enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The combination of Inesfly 5A IGR™ and LLINs was effective in killing 99.9-100% of malaria vector populations for 6 months regardless of the dose and volume treated. After 12 months, mortality rates decreased to 69.5-82.2%. The highest mortality rates observed in houses treated with 2 layers of insecticide paint and a larger volume. WHO bioassays supported these results: mortalities were 98.8-100% for 6 months and decreased after 12 months to 81.7-97.0%. Mortality rates in control houses with LLINs were low. Collected malaria vectors consisted exclusively of Anopheles coluzzii and were resistant to pyrethroids, with a L1014 kdr mutation frequency ranging from 60 to 98% through the study. About 58% of An. coluzzii collected inside houses had bloodfed on non-human animals. Combining Inesfly 5A IGR™ and LLINs yielded a one year killing efficacy against An. coluzzii highly resistant to pyrethroids but susceptible to OPs that exhibited an anthropo-zoophilic behaviour in the study area. The results obtained in a real setting supported previous work performed in experimental huts and underscore the need to study the impact that this novel strategy may have on clinical malaria and malaria exposure in children in a similar area of high pyrethroid resistance in South-Western Burkina Faso. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heart rate turbulence predicts ICD-resistant mortality in ischaemic heart disease.

PubMed

Marynissen, Thomas; Floré, Vincent; Heidbuchel, Hein; Nuyens, Dieter; Ector, Joris; Willems, Rik

2014-07-01

In high-risk patients, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) can convert the mode of death from arrhythmic to pump failure death. Therefore, we introduced the concept of 'ICD-resistant mortality' (IRM), defined as death (a) without previous appropriate ICD intervention (AI), (b) within 1 month after the first AI, or (c) within 1 year after the initial ICD implantation. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation in patients with a high risk of IRM should be avoided. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator patients with ischaemic heart disease were included if a digitized 24 h Holter was available pre-implantation. Demographic, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and 24 h Holter risk factors were collected at device implantation. The primary endpoint was IRM. Cox regression analyses were used to test the association between predictors and outcome. We included 130 patients, with a mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 33.6 ± 10.3%. During a follow-up of 52 ± 31 months, 33 patients died. There were 21 cases of IRM. Heart rate turbulence (HRT) was the only Holter parameter associated with IRM and total mortality. A higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and a lower body mass index were the strongest predictors of IRM. Left ventricular ejection fraction predicted IRM on univariate analysis, and was the strongest predictor of total mortality. The only parameter that predicted AI was non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation based on NYHA class and LVEF leads to selection of patients with a higher risk of IRM and death. Heart rate turbulence may have added value for the identification of poor candidates for ICD therapy. Available Holter parameters seem limited in their ability to predict AI. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2013. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Shortage of Appendicular Skeletal Muscle Is an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

PubMed

Jin, Sanli; Lu, Qian; Su, Chunyan; Pang, Dong; Wang, Tao

♦ BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on clinical outcomes among peritoneal dialysis patients with shortage of appendicular skeletal muscle (ASM). In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the shortage of ASM is an independent risk factor for mortality in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. ♦ METHODS: Adult patients undergoing CAPD between March and August 2007 in a single center in China were recruited in this prospective cohort study. Body composition, protein/energy intake, clinical, and biochemical data were collected at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. End points were all-cause mortality by 12 September 2014. The mean follow-up time was 60.21 (± 24.45) months (11.00 - 89.00). ♦ RESULTS: Compared with the baseline, the mean value of ASM in CAPD patients decreased at 12 months (19.40 ± 5.60 vs 21.85 ± 6.14, p < 0.001). According to the estimation of patient survival by Kaplan-Meier, patients with a shortage of ASM had a worse survival rate than those with normal ASM (χ 2 = 16.588, p < 0.001). In the Cox's proportional hazards model, patients' survival was independently associated with a shortage of ASM (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.318, p = 0.024, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.116 - 4.812). Standard daily protein intake (stDPI) and standard daily energy intake (stDEI) in patients with a shortage of ASM were significantly lower than those in patients with normal ASM in the first follow-up year (t = 2.067, p = 0.041; t = 3.673, p = 0.001). ♦ CONCLUSIONS: A shortage of ASM is an independent risk factor for mortality in CAPD patients. Further studies are needed to demonstrate that nutritional intervention helps with improving muscle mass and, consequently, the survival of CAPD patients. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis.

Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR). Volume 12, Number 9, December 2006

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

497-504. 3. State-specific prevalence of obesity among adults – US, 2005. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 2006 Sep 15;55(36):985-8. 4...2003. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 2005 (January 21); 54(02);36-39. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Cases Cases Cases Cases Cases...Environ Med 2002 Aug;73(8):812-6. 8. White MR, McNally MS. Morbidity and mortality in U.S. Navy personnel from exposures to hazardous materials, 1974

Serum concentrations of asymmetric and symmetric dimethylarginine are associated with mortality in acute heart failure patients.

PubMed

Potočnjak, Ines; Radulović, Bojana; Degoricija, Vesna; Trbušić, Matias; Pregartner, Gudrun; Berghold, Andrea; Meinitzer, Andreas; Frank, Saša

2018-06-15

Serum concentrations of asymmetric (ADMA) and symmetric (SDMA) dimethylarginine are established predictors of total and cardiovascular mortality. However, the predictive capacity of ADMA and SDMA for hospital and 3-months mortality of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) is unknown. Out of 152 included AHF patients, 79 (52%) were female, and the mean patient age was 75.2 ± 10.3 years. Hospital and three-month mortality rates were 14.5% and 27.4%, respectively. Serum ADMA and SDMA levels at admission, determined by reversed phase high performance liquid chromatography, were higher in patients having at least one of the three signs implying venous volume overload (enlarged liver, ascites, peripheral edema), a consequence of right-sided heart failure, compared to patients without those signs. Univariable logistic regression analyses revealed a significant positive association of ADMA and SDMA concentrations with hospital mortality [odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) per standard deviation (SD) increase: 2.22 (1.37-3.79), p = 0.002, and 2.04 (1.34-3.18), p = 0.001, respectively], and 3-months mortality [2.06 (1.36-3.26), p = 0.001, and 2.52 (1.67-4.04), p < 0.001, respectively]. These associations remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, mean arterial pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glomerular filtration rate, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. We conclude that ADMA and SDMA concentrations are associated with hospital and 3-month mortality and are increased by venous volume overload in AHF patients. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Significance of Large Vessel Intracranial Occlusion Causing Acute Ischemic Stroke and TIA

PubMed Central

Smith, Wade S.; Lev, Michael H.; English, Joey D.; Camargo, Erica C.; Chou, Maggie; Johnston, S. Claiborne; Gonzalez, Gilberto; Schaefer, Pamela W.; Dillon, William P.; Koroshetz, Walter J.; Furie, Karen L.

2009-01-01

Background: Acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO)-vertebral, basilar, carotid terminus, middle and anterior cerebral arteries- likely portends a worse prognosis than stroke unassociated with LVO. Because little prospective angiographic data has been reported on a cohort of unselected stroke and TIA patients, the clinical impact of LVO has been difficult to quantify. Methods: The STOP-Stroke Study is a prospective imaging-based study of stroke outcomes performed at two academic medical centers. Patients with suspected acute stroke who presented within 24 hours of symptom onset and who underwent multi-modality CT/CTA were approached for consent for collection of clinical data and 6 month assessment of outcome. Demographic and clinical variables and 6-month modified Rankin scores (mRS) were collected and combined with blinded interpretation of the CTA data. The odds ratio (OR) of each variable including occlusion of intracranial vascular segment in predicting good outcome and 6-month mortality was calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results: Over a 33 month period, 735 patients with suspected stroke were enrolled. Of these, 578 were adjudicated as stroke and 97 as TIA. Among stroke patients, 267 (46%) had LVO accounting for the stroke and 13 (13%) of TIA patients had LVO accounting for TIA symptoms. LVO predicted six-month mortality (OR 4.5; 95% CI 2.7-7.3; p<0.001). Six-month good outcome (mRS≤ 2) was negatively predicted by LVO (0.33; 0.24-0.45; p<0.001). Based on multivariate analysis, the presence of basilar and internal carotid terminus occlusions, in addition to NIHSS and age, independently predicted outcome. Conclusion: Large vessel intracranial occlusion accounted for nearly half of acute ischemic strokes in unselected patients presenting to academic medical centers. In addition to age and baseline stroke severity, occlusion of either the basilar or internal carotid terminus segment is an independent predictor of outcome at 6 months. PMID:19834014

Web-based tool for dynamic functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke and comparison with existing models.

PubMed

Ji, Ruijun; Du, Wanliang; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yongjun

2014-11-25

Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is one of the leading causes of death and adult disability worldwide. In the present study, we aimed to develop a web-based risk model for predicting dynamic functional status at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after acute ischemic stroke (Dynamic Functional Status after Acute Ischemic Stroke, DFS-AIS). The DFS-AIS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR), in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Good functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≤ 2 at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS, respectively. Independent predictors of each outcome measure were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and plot of observed and predicted risk were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. A total of 12,026 patients were included and the median age was 67 (interquartile range: 57-75). The proportion of patients with good functional outcome at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS was 67.9%, 66.5%, 66.9% and 66.9%, respectively. Age, gender, medical history of diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, current smoking and atrial fibrillation, pre-stroke dependence, pre-stroke statins using, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, admission blood glucose were identified as independent predictors of functional outcome at different time points after AIS. The DFS-AIS was developed from sets of predictors of mRS ≤ 2 at different time points following AIS. The DFS-AIS demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC range: 0.837-0.845). Plots of observed versus predicted likelihood showed excellent calibration in the derivation and validation cohorts (all r = 0.99, P < 0.001). When compared to 8 existing models, the DFS-AIS showed significantly better discrimination for good functional outcome and mortality at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS (all P < 0.0001). The DFS-AIS is a valid risk model to predict functional outcome at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS.

Do measures of surgical effectiveness at 1 year after lumbar spine surgery accurately predict 2-year outcomes?

PubMed

Adogwa, Owoicho; Elsamadicy, Aladine A; Han, Jing L; Cheng, Joseph; Karikari, Isaac; Bagley, Carlos A

2016-12-01

OBJECTIVE With the recent passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, there has been a dramatic shift toward critical analyses of quality and longitudinal assessment of subjective and objective outcomes after lumbar spine surgery. Accordingly, the emergence and routine use of real-world institutional registries have been vital to the longitudinal assessment of quality. However, prospectively obtaining longitudinal outcomes for patients at 24 months after spine surgery remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to assess if 12-month measures of treatment effectiveness accurately predict long-term outcomes (24 months). METHODS A nationwide, multiinstitutional, prospective spine outcomes registry was used for this study. Enrollment criteria included available demographic, surgical, and clinical outcomes data. All patients had prospectively collected outcomes measures and a minimum 2-year follow-up. Patient-reported outcomes instruments (Oswestry Disability Index [ODI], SF-36, and visual analog scale [VAS]-back pain/leg pain) were completed before surgery and then at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery. The Health Transition Index of the SF-36 was used to determine the 1- and 2-year minimum clinically important difference (MCID), and logistic regression modeling was performed to determine if achieving MCID at 1 year adequately predicted improvement and achievement of MCID at 24 months. RESULTS The study group included 969 patients: 300 patients underwent anterior lumbar interbody fusion (ALIF), 606 patients underwent transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF), and 63 patients underwent lateral interbody fusion (LLIF). There was a significant correlation between the 12- and 24-month ODI (r = 0.82; p < 0.0001), SF-36 Physical Component Summary score (r = 0.89; p < 0.0001), VAS-back pain (r = 0.90; p < 0.0001), and VAS-leg pain (r = 0.85; p < 0.0001). For the ALIF cohort, patients achieving MCID thresholds for ODI at 12 months were 13-fold (p < 0.0001) more likely to achieve MCID at 24 months. Similarly, for the TLIF and LLIF cohorts, patients achieving MCID thresholds for ODI at 12 months were 13-fold and 14-fold (p < 0.0001) more likely to achieve MCID at 24 months. Outcome measures obtained at 12 months postoperatively are highly predictive of 24-month outcomes, independent of the surgical procedure. CONCLUSIONS In a multiinstitutional prospective study, patient-centered measures of surgical effectiveness obtained at 12 months adequately predict long-term (24-month) outcomes after lumbar spine surgery. Patients achieving MCID at 1 year were more likely to report meaningful and durable improvement at 24 months, suggesting that the 12-month time point is sufficient to identify effective versus ineffective patient care.

Reduced All-cause Child Mortality After General Measles Vaccination Campaign in Rural Guinea-Bissau.

PubMed

Fisker, Ane B; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Martins, Cesario; Ravn, Henrik; Byberg, Stine; Thysen, Sanne; Storgaard, Line; Pedersen, Marie; Fernandes, Manuel; Benn, Christine S; Aaby, Peter

2015-12-01

Randomized trials have shown that measles vaccine (MV) prevents nonmeasles deaths. MV campaigns are conducted to eliminate measles infection. The overall mortality effect of MV campaigns has not been studied. Bandim Health Project (BHP) surveys children aged 0-4 years in rural Guinea-Bissau through a health and demographic surveillance system. A national MV campaign in 2006 targeted children aged 6 months to 15 years. In a Cox proportional hazards model with age as the underlying timescale, we compared mortality of children aged 6-59 months after the campaign with mortality in the same age group during the 2 previous years. Eight thousand one hundred fifty eight children aged 6-59 months were under BHP surveillance during the 2006 campaign and 7999 and 8108 during similar periods in 2004 and 2005. At least 90% of the eligible children received MV in the campaign. There were 161 nonaccident deaths in 12 months after the campaign compared with 203 and 206 deaths in the 2 previous years, the adjusted mortality rate ratio (aMRR) comparing all children in 2006 with all children in 2004 to 2005 being 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.96). Censoring deaths caused by measles infection, the aMRR was 0.83 (0.69-1.00). The mortality reduction was separately significant for girls [aMRR = 0.74 (0.56-0.97)] and for children who also had received routine MV [MRR = 0.59 (0.36-0.99)]. Mortality levels were stable during 2004 and 2005, but a significant drop occurred after the 2006 MV campaign and was not explained by the prevention of measles deaths. If MV campaigns reduce nonmeasles-related mortality, the policies for measles vaccination should take this into account.

Clinical Characteristics and Validation of Bronchiectasis Severity Score Systems for Post-Tuberculosis Bronchiectasis.

PubMed

Wang, Hong; Ji, Xiao-Bin; Li, Cheng-Wei; Lu, Hai-Wen; Mao, Bei; Liang, Shuo; Cheng, Ke-Bin; Bai, Jiu-Wu; Martinez-Garcia, Miguel Angel; Xu, Jin-Fu

2018-05-23

Lung damage related to tuberculosis is a major contributor to the etiology of bronchiectasis in China. It is unknown whether bronchiectasis severity score systems are applicable in these cases. To evaluate the clinical characteristics and validation of bronchiectasis severity score systems for post-tuberculosis bronchiectasis. The study enrolled 596 bronchiectasis patients in Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital between January 2011 and December 2012. The data for calculating FACED and bronchiectasis severity index (BSI) scores along with mortality, readmission, and exacerbation outcomes were collected and analyzed within a follow-up period with a median length of 48 months (interquartile range 43-54 months). The study enrolled 101 post-tuberculosis bronchiectasis patients and 495 non-tuberculosis bronchiectasis patients. Compared with non-post-tuberculosis bronchiectasis, post-tuberculosis bronchiectasis patients experienced less bilateral bronchiectasis (P=0.004), a higher frequency of right upper lobe involvement (P<0.001), and showed the cylindrical type more often (P<0.001). Follow-up data indicated that both scoring systems were able to predict 48(43-54) month mortality in post-tuberculosis patients as assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) (FACED AUC=0.81, BSI AUC=0.70), but they did not predict readmission (FACED and BSI=0.56) or exacerbation (FACED and BSI=0.52) well. There are apparent differences on radiologic features between bronchiectasis patients with and without history of pulmonary tuberculosis. Both FACED and BSI can predict mortality in post-tuberculosis bronchiectasis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Neonatal vitamin A supplementation for the prevention of mortality and morbidity in term neonates in low and middle income countries.

PubMed

Haider, Batool A; Sharma, Renee; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

2017-02-24

Vitamin A deficiency is a major public health problem in low and middle income countries. Vitamin A supplementation in children six months of age and older has been found to be beneficial, but no effect of supplementation has been noted for children between one and five months of age. Supplementation during the neonatal period has been suggested to have an impact by increasing body stores in early infancy. To evaluate the role of vitamin A supplementation for term neonates in low and middle income countries with respect to prevention of mortality and morbidity. We used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group to search the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE via PubMed (1966 to 13 March 2016), Embase (1980 to 13 March 2016) and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL; 1982 to 13 March 2016). We also searched clinical trials databases, conference proceedings and reference lists of retrieved articles for randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised trials. Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials. Also trials with a factorial design. Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted study data. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to assess the quality of evidence. We included 12 trials (168,460 neonates) in this review, with only a few trials reporting disaggregated data for term infants. Therefore, we analysed data and presented estimates for term infants (when specified) and for all infants.Data for term neonates from three studies did not show a statistically significant effect on the risk of infant mortality at six months in the vitamin A group compared with the control group (typical risk ratio (RR) 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54 to 1.18; I 2 = 63%). Analysis of data for all infants from 11 studies revealed no evidence of a significant reduction in the risk of infant mortality at six months among neonates supplemented with vitamin A compared with control neonates (typical RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.07; I 2 = 47%). We observed similar results for infant mortality at 12 months of age with no significant effect of vitamin A compared with control (typical RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.15; I 2 = 47%). Limited data were available for the outcomes of cause-specific mortality and morbidity, vitamin A deficiency, anaemia and adverse events. Given the high burden of death among children younger than five years of age in low and middle income countries, and the fact that mortality in infancy is a major contributory cause, it is critical to obtain sound scientific evidence of the effect of vitamin A supplementation during the neonatal period on infant mortality and morbidity. Evidence provided in this review does not indicate a potential beneficial effect of vitamin A supplementation among neonates at birth in reducing mortality during the first six months or 12 months of life. Given this finding and the absence of a clear indication of the biological mechanism through which vitamin A could affect mortality, along with substantial conflicting findings from individual studies conducted in settings with potentially varying levels of maternal vitamin A deficiency and infant mortality, absence of follow-up studies assessing any long-term impact of a bulging fontanelle after supplementation and the finding of a potentially harmful effect among female infants, additional research is warranted before a decision can be reached regarding policy recommendations for this intervention.

Pulmonary 18F-FDG uptake helps refine current risk stratification in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

PubMed

Win, Thida; Screaton, Nicholas J; Porter, Joanna C; Ganeshan, Balaji; Maher, Toby M; Fraioli, Francesco; Endozo, Raymondo; Shortman, Robert I; Hurrell, Lynn; Holman, Beverley F; Thielemans, Kris; Rashidnasab, Alaleh; Hutton, Brian F; Lukey, Pauline T; Flynn, Aiden; Ell, Peter J; Groves, Ashley M

2018-05-01

There is a lack of prognostic biomarkers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of 18 F-FDG-PET/ CT to predict mortality in IPF. A total of 113 IPF patients (93 males, 20 females, mean age ± SD: 70 ± 9 years) were prospectively recruited for 18 F-FDG-PET/CT. The overall maximum pulmonary uptake of 18 F-FDG (SUV max ), the minimum pulmonary uptake or background lung activity (SUV min ), and target-to-background (SUV max / SUV min ) ratio (TBR) were quantified using routine region-of-interest analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to identify associations of PET measurements with mortality. We also compared PET associations with IPF mortality with the established GAP (gender age and physiology) scoring system. Cox analysis assessed the independence of the significant PET measurement(s) from GAP score. We investigated synergisms between pulmonary 18 F-FDG-PET measurements and GAP score for risk stratification in IPF patients. During a mean follow-up of 29 months, there were 54 deaths. The mean TBR ± SD was 5.6 ± 2.7. Mortality was associated with high pulmonary TBR (p = 0.009), low forced vital capacity (FVC; p = 0.001), low transfer factor (TLCO; p < 0.001), high GAP index (p = 0.003), and high GAP stage (p = 0.003). Stepwise forward-Wald-Cox analysis revealed that the pulmonary TBR was independent of GAP classification (p = 0.010). The median survival in IPF patients with a TBR < 4.9 was 71 months, whilst in those with TBR > 4.9 was 24 months. Combining PET data with GAP data ("PET modified GAP score") refined the ability to predict mortality. A high pulmonary TBR is independently associated with increased risk of mortality in IPF patients.

Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

PubMed

Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

2015-01-01

We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The derivation and validation of a simple model for predicting in-hospital mortality of acutely admitted patients to internal medicine wards.

PubMed

Sakhnini, Ali; Saliba, Walid; Schwartz, Naama; Bisharat, Naiel

2017-06-01

Limited information is available about clinical predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute unselected medical admissions. Such information could assist medical decision-making.To develop a clinical model for predicting in-hospital mortality in unselected acute medical admissions and to test the impact of secondary conditions on hospital mortality.This is an analysis of the medical records of patients admitted to internal medicine wards at one university-affiliated hospital. Data obtained from the years 2013 to 2014 were used as a derivation dataset for creating a prediction model, while data from 2015 was used as a validation dataset to test the performance of the model. For each admission, a set of clinical and epidemiological variables was obtained. The main diagnosis at hospitalization was recorded, and all additional or secondary conditions that coexisted at hospital admission or that developed during hospital stay were considered secondary conditions.The derivation and validation datasets included 7268 and 7843 patients, respectively. The in-hospital mortality rate averaged 7.2%. The following variables entered the final model; age, body mass index, mean arterial pressure on admission, prior admission within 3 months, background morbidity of heart failure and active malignancy, and chronic use of statins and antiplatelet agents. The c-statistic (ROC-AUC) of the prediction model was 80.5% without adjustment for main or secondary conditions, 84.5%, with adjustment for the main diagnosis, and 89.5% with adjustment for the main diagnosis and secondary conditions. The accuracy of the predictive model reached 81% on the validation dataset.A prediction model based on clinical data with adjustment for secondary conditions exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. We provide a proof of concept that there is an added value for incorporating secondary conditions while predicting probabilities of in-hospital mortality. Further improvement of the model performance and validation in other cohorts are needed to aid hospitalists in predicting health outcomes.

Abdominal compartment syndrome and ruptured aortic aneurysm: Validation of a predictive test (SCA-AAR).

PubMed

Leclerc, Betty; Salomon Du Mont, Lucie; Parmentier, Anne-Laure; Besch, Guillaume; Rinckenbach, Simon

2018-06-01

The abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) has been clearly identified as being one of the main causes of mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA). The ACS is defined as a sustained intra-abdominal pressure > 20 mm Hg associated with a new organ dysfunction or failure. A pilot study was conducted and found that the threshold of 3 among 8 selected criteria, we would predict an ACS occurrence with a 54% positive predictive value and a 92% negative predictive value. But a multicentric prospective study was clearly needed to confirm these results. The outcome of this new study is to assess the qualities of a predictive test on occurrence of the ACS after rAAA surgery. This is a 30 months prospective cohort study conducted in 12 centers and 165 patients will be included. All patients with a rAAA will be consecutively included, whatever the surgical treatment. At the end of surgery, all patients have an abdominal closure and a monitoring of intrabladder pressure will be established every 3 to 4 hours. Decompressive laparotomy will be indicated when ACS occurs. Follow-up period is 1 month. Eight pre- and per-operative criteria will be studied: anemia, hypotension, cardiac arrest, obesity, massive fluid resuscitation, transfusion, hypothermia, and acidosis. In the literature, there is no recommendation about prophylactic decompression, but early decompressive laparotomy appears to improve survival. This study should make it possible to establish a predictive test, detect the ACS early, and consider a prophylactic decompression in the operating room. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02859662, Registered on 4 August 2016.

Impact of vitamin A supplementation on infant and childhood mortality

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Vitamin A is important for the integrity and regeneration of respiratory and gastrointestinal epithelia and is involved in regulating human immune function. It has been shown previously that vitamin A has a preventive effect on all-cause and disease specific mortality in children under five. The purpose of this paper was to get a point estimate of efficacy of vitamin A supplementation in reducing cause specific mortality by using Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) guidelines. Methods A literature search was done on PubMed, Cochrane Library and WHO regional data bases using various free and Mesh terms for vitamin A and mortality. Data were abstracted into standardized forms and quality of studies was assessed according to standardized guidelines. Pooled estimates were generated for preventive effect of vitamin A supplementation on all-cause and disease specific mortality of diarrhea, measles, pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis. We did a subgroup analysis for vitamin A supplementation in neonates, infants 1-6 months and children aged 6-59 months. In this paper we have focused on estimation of efficacy of vitamin A supplementation in children 6-59 months of age. Results for neonatal vitamin A supplementation have been presented, however no recommendations are made as more evidence on it would be available soon. Results There were 21 studies evaluating preventive effect of vitamin A supplementation in community settings which reported all-cause mortality. Twelve of these also reported cause specific mortality for diarrhea and pneumonia and six reported measles specific mortality. Combined results from six studies showed that neonatal vitamin A supplementation reduced all-cause mortality by 12 % [Relative risk (RR) 0.88; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.98]. There was no effect of vitamin A supplementation in reducing all-cause mortality in infants 1-6 months of age [RR 1.05; 95 % CI 0.88-1.26]. Pooled results for preventive vitamin A supplementation showed that it reduced all-cause mortality by 25% [RR 0.75; 95 % CI 0.64-0.88] in children 6-59 months of age. Vitamin A supplementation also reduced diarrhea specific mortality by 30% [RR 0.70; 95 % CI 0.58-0.86] in children 6-59 months. This effect has been recommended for inclusion in the Lives Saved Tool. Vitamin A supplementation had no effect on measles [RR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.43-1.16], meningitis [RR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.22-2.48] and pneumonia [RR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.67-1.30] specific mortality. Conclusion Preventive vitamin A supplementation reduces all-cause and diarrhea specific mortality in children 6-59 months of age in community settings in developing countries. PMID:21501438

Development of a decision support tool for primary care management of patients with abnormal liver function tests without clinically apparent liver disease: a record-linkage population cohort study and decision analysis (ALFIE).

PubMed

Donnan, P T; McLernon, D; Dillon, J F; Ryder, S; Roderick, P; Sullivan, F; Rosenberg, W

2009-04-01

To determine the natural history of abnormalities in liver function tests (LFTs), derive predictive algorithms for liver disease and identify the most cost-effective strategies for further investigation. MEDLINE database from 1966 to September 2006, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library. Population-based retrospective cohort study set in primary care in Tayside, Scotland, between 1989 and 2003. Participants were patients with no obvious signs of liver disease and registered with a general practitioner (GP). The study followed up those with an incident batch of LFTs in primary care to subsequent liver disease or mortality over a maximum of 15 years. The health technologies being assessed were primary care LFTs, viral and autoantibody tests, ultrasound and liver biopsy. Measures used were the epidemiology of liver disease in Tayside (ELDIT) database, time-to-event modelling, predictive algorithms derived using the Weibull survival model, decision analyses from an NHS perspective, cost-utility analyses, and one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses. A total of 95,977 patients had 364,194 initial LFTs, with a median follow-up of 3.7 years. Of these, 21.7% had at least one abnormal liver function test (ALFT) and 1090 (1.14%) developed liver disease. Elevated transaminases were strongly associated with diagnosed liver disease, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 4.23 [95% CI (confidence interval) 3.55-5.04] for mild levels and 12.67 (95% CI 9.74-16.47) for severe levels versus normal. For gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), these HRs were 2.54 (95% CI 2.17-2.96) and 13.44 (10.71-16.87) respectively. Low albumin was strongly associated with all cause mortality, with ratios of 2.65 (95% CI 2.47-2.85) for mild levels and 4.99 (95% CI 4.26-5.84) for severe levels. Sensitivity for predicting events over 5 years was low and specificity was high. Follow-up time was split into baseline to 3 months, 3 months to 1 year and over 1 year. All LFTs were predictive of liver disease, and high probability of liver disease was associated with being female, methadone use, alcohol dependency and deprivation. The shorter-term models had overall c-statistics of 0.85 and 0.72 for outcome of liver disease at 3 months and 1 year respectively, and 0.88 and 0.82 for all cause mortality at 3 months and 1 year respectively. Calibration was good for models predicting liver disease. Discrimination was low for models predicting events at over 1 year. In cost-utility analyses, retesting dominated referral as an option. However, using the predictive algorithms to identify the top percentile at high risk of liver disease, retesting had an incremental cost-utility ratio of 7588 pounds relative to referral. GGT should be included in the batch of LFTs in primary care. If the patient in primary care has no obvious liver disease and a low or moderate risk of liver disease, retesting in primary care is the most cost-effective option. If the patient with ALFTs in primary care has a high risk of liver disease, retesting depends on the willingness to pay of the NHS. Cut-offs are arbitrary and in developing decision aids it is important to treat the LFT results as continuous variables.

Functional recovery patterns in seriously injured automotive crash victims.

PubMed

McMurry, Timothy L; Poplin, Gerald S; Crandall, Jeff

2016-09-01

The functional capacity index (FCI) is designed to predict functional loss 12 months post-injury for each injury in the 2008 Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) manual on a scale from 0 (death) to 100 (full recovery), but FCI has never been validated. This study compared FCI predicted loss with patient-reported 12-month outcomes as measured through the Short Form 36 (SF-36) health assessment survey. Using follow-up data collected on 2,858 adult car crash occupants in the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) database, we compared FCI predicted outcomes to occupants' Physical Component Summary (PCS) scores, which are weighted averages of the SF-36 items addressing physical function. Our analyses included descriptive statistics, plots of typical recovery patterns, and a mixed effects regression model that describes PCS as a function of FCI, demographics, comorbidities, and injury pattern while also adjusting for the occupants' pre-crash physical capabilities. We further examined injuries in patients who report a significant drop in PCS 12 months post-crash despite being predicted to fully recover. At baseline, the CIREN population exhibited PCS scores similar to the overall population (mean = 51.1, SD = 10.3). Twelve months post-crash, occupants with predicted impairment (FCI < 100) report a substantial decrease in physical function, and those who were predicted to fully recover still report some, albeit less, impairment. In the multivariate mixed-effects regression model, FCI is a strongly significant (P-value <.0001) predictor of PCS, with each 1-point drop in FCI predicting a 0.27-point drop in PCS. Maximum AIS severities in the head, spine, and lower extremity body regions were also significantly associated with PCS (P-values <.05). Among occupants who were expected to fully recover but who report a significant drop in PCS at 12 months, spinal fractures without cord involvement account for 5 of the 10 most common AIS 2+ injuries. FCI was associated with 12-month outcomes but may not adequately describe the recovery from some head, spine, and lower extremity injuries. Some occupants who were expected to recover still report functional loss 12 months post-injury.

Implementation of a transfusion algorithm to reduce blood product utilization in pediatric cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Whitney, Gina; Daves, Suanne; Hughes, Alex; Watkins, Scott; Woods, Marcella; Kreger, Michael; Marincola, Paula; Chocron, Isaac; Donahue, Brian

2013-07-01

The goal of this project is to measure the impact of standardization of transfusion practice on blood product utilization and postoperative bleeding in pediatric cardiac surgery patients. Transfusion is common following cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in children and is associated with increased mortality, infection, and duration of mechanical ventilation. Transfusion in pediatric cardiac surgery is often based on clinical judgment rather than objective data. Although objective transfusion algorithms have demonstrated efficacy for reducing transfusion in adult cardiac surgery, such algorithms have not been applied in the pediatric setting. This quality improvement effort was designed to reduce blood product utilization in pediatric cardiac surgery using a blood product transfusion algorithm. We implemented an evidence-based transfusion protocol in January 2011 and monitored the impact of this algorithm on blood product utilization, chest tube output during the first 12 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and predischarge mortality. When compared with the 12 months preceding implementation, blood utilization per case in the operating room odds ratio (OR) for the 11 months following implementation decreased by 66% for red cells (P = 0.001) and 86% for cryoprecipitate (P < 0.001). Blood utilization during the first 12 h of ICU did not increase during this time and actually decreased 56% for plasma (P = 0.006) and 41% for red cells (P = 0.031), indicating that the decrease in OR transfusion did not shift the transfusion burden to the ICU. Postoperative bleeding, as measured by chest tube output in the first 12 ICU hours, did not increase following implementation of the algorithm. Monthly surgical volume did not change significantly following implementation of the algorithm (P = 0.477). In a logistic regression model for predischarge mortality among the nontransplant patients, after accounting for surgical severity and duration of CPB, use of the transfusion algorithm was associated with a 0.247 relative risk of mortality (P = 0.013). These results indicate that introduction of an objective transfusion algorithm in pediatric cardiac surgery significantly reduces perioperative blood product utilization and mortality, without increasing postoperative chest tube losses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Foveal threshold and photoreceptor integrity for prediction of visual acuity after intravitreal aflibercept on age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Sakai, Tsutomu; Okude, Sachiyo; Tsuneoka, Hiroshi

2018-01-01

To determine whether baseline foveal threshold and photoreceptor integrity can predict best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 12 months after intravitreal aflibercept (IVA) therapy in eyes with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We evaluated 25 eyes of 25 patients with treatment-naïve neovascular AMD who received IVA once a month for 3 months, followed by once every 2 months for 8 months. BCVA, integrity of the external limiting membrane (ELM) or the ellipsoid zone (EZ) of the photoreceptors, and retinal sensitivity were determined before (baseline) and at 6 and 12 months after initial IVA. The average threshold foveal sensitivity and mean deviation within the central 10° were determined by Humphrey central 10-2 perimetry. Correlations between BCVA at 12 months and integrity of the ELM or EZ, foveal threshold, and mean deviation at each visit were determined. At 12 months, BCVA improved significantly from 0.20±0.23 to 0.10±0.22 logMAR (logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution) units, and foveal threshold and mean deviation improved significantly from 29.0±5.1 and -3.38±3.10 dB to 32.6±3.2 and -1.64±2.10 dB, respectively ( P =0.0009 and P =0.0021). At baseline, both foveal threshold and integrity of the ELM were significantly correlated with BCVA at 12 months ( P =0.0428 and P =0.0275). These results indicate that both integrity of the ELM and foveal threshold at baseline can predict BCVA after treatment for neovascular AMD. There is a possibility that these parameters can predict the efficacy of IVA in each case.

Do first impressions count? Frailty judged by initial clinical impression predicts medium-term mortality in vascular surgical patients.

PubMed

O'Neill, B R; Batterham, A M; Hollingsworth, A C; Durrand, J W; Danjoux, G R

2016-06-01

Recognising frailty during pre-operative assessment is important. Frail patients experience higher mortality rates and are less likely to return to baseline functional status following the physiological insult of surgery. We evaluated the association between an initial clinical impression of frailty and all-cause mortality in 392 patients attending our vascular pre-operative assessment clinic. Prevalence of frailty assessed by the initial clinical impression was 30.6% (95% CI 26.0-35.2%). There were 133 deaths in 392 patients over a median follow-up period of 4 years. Using Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, revised cardiac risk index and surgery (yes/no), the hazard ratio for mortality for frail vs. not-frail was 2.14 (95% CI 1.51-3.05). The time to 20% mortality was 16 months in the frail group and 33 months in the not-frail group. The initial clinical impression is a useful screening tool to identify frail patients in pre-operative assessment. © 2016 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

PubMed Central

Koethe, John R.; Blevins, Meridith; Nyirenda, Christopher K.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Chiasera, Janelle M.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Zulu, Isaac; Heimburger, Douglas C.

2013-01-01

Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI <18.5 kg/m2, 28 (19%) died within 12 weeks. Lower pretreatment serum phosphate was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.24 per 0.1 mmol/L decrement, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.47; P = 0.01) after adjusting for sex, age, and CD4+ lymphocyte count. A similar relationship was not observed among participants with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2 (OR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.21; P = 0.74). Conclusions. The association of low pretreatment serum phosphate level and early ART mortality among undernourished individuals may represent a variant of the refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed. PMID:23691292

Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau.

PubMed

Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Benn, Christine Stabell; Fisker, Ane Baerent

2017-07-01

In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea-Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d-mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1-11 months, 12-59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa-4 software. From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two-thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45-58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d-mrr being 0.94 (0.86-1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46-1.69) in post-neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72-1.95) in under-five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self-confirmatory. The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Algorithm for prioritization of patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation.

PubMed

Gambato, M; Senzolo, M; Canova, D; Germani, G; Tomat, S; Masier, A; Russo, F P; Perissinotto, E; Zanus, G; Cillo, U; Burra, P

2007-01-01

Prioritization of patients on the waiting list (WL) for OLT is still a critical issue. Numerous models have been developed to predict mortality before and after OLT. The aim of the study was to prospectively evaluate cirrhotics with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) severity of liver disease on the WL and at transplant, mortality on the WL and after OLT, and their correlations. An algorithm based on seven patient variables (MELD, CTP, UNOS, HCC, BMI, waiting time, age) was created by software dedicated to prioritize patients on the waiting list. We evaluated 118 patients including 75 men and 43 women of age range 19 to 66 years, who underwent OLT from July 2004 to June 2006. Mean CTP and MELD at listing were 8.44 (range 6-12) and 13 (range 2-24), respectively. Overall mortality on the WL at 24 months was 13%, which was significantly higher among patients with MELD > 25 compared to patients with MELD 0 to 15 (P < .0001) or MELD 16 to 25 (P = .0007) at listing. Mean MELD at OLT was 15 (range 7-36), which was significantly lower in patients with than without HCC (MELD 12 vs 16; P = .0003). Six hundred-day patient survival was significantly lower among patients with MELD > 25 compared to patients with MELD < 25 at OLT (P = .017), whereas no difference in survival was observed between patients with and without HCC. The sickest patients are characterized by high mortality both on the waiting list and after liver transplantation. Patients with HCC are transplanted in better condition compared to patients without HCC with the same survival.

Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Shingu, Satoru; Yamagata, Toshio

2005-11-01

Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.Hindcast results for the period 1982 2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9 12-month lead times.In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7 12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

Is a specific oncological scoring system better at predicting the prognosis of cancer patients admitted for an acute medical complication in an intensive care unit than general gravity scores?

PubMed

Berghmans, T; Paesmans, M; Sculier, J P

2004-04-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of a specific oncologic scoring system-the ICU Cancer Mortality model (ICM)-in predicting hospital mortality in comparison to two general severity scores-the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II). All 247 patients admitted for a medical acute complication over an 18-month period in an oncological medical intensive care unit were prospectively registered. Their data, including type of complication, vital status at discharge and cancer characteristics as well as other variables necessary to calculate the three scoring systems were retrospectively assessed. Observed in-hospital mortality was 34%. The predicted in-hospital mortality rate for APACHE II was 32%; SAPS II, 24%; and ICM, 28%. The goodness of fit was inadequate except for the ICM score. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves revealed a better fit for ICM (area 0.79). The maximum correct classification rate was 72% for APACHE II, 74% for SAPS II and 77% for ICM. APACHE II and SAPS II were better at predicting outcome for survivors to hospital discharge, although ICM was better for non-survivors. Two variables were independently predicting the risk of death during hospitalisation: ICM (OR=2.31) and SAPS II (OR=1.05). Gravity scores were the single independent predictors for hospital mortality, and ICM was equivalent to APACHE II and SAPS II.

Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study.

PubMed

Lawrance, R A; Dorsch, M F; Sapsford, R J; Mackintosh, A F; Greenwood, D C; Jackson, B M; Morrell, C; Robinson, M B; Hall, A S

2001-08-11

Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Observational study. 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of -4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Does marital conflict predict infants' physiological regulation? A short-term prospective study.

PubMed

Porter, Christin L; Dyer, W Justin

2017-06-01

Prior research has linked marital conflict to children's internalizing/externalizing disorders, insecure attachment, and poor emotional regulation (e.g., Cummings & Davies, 2010; Cummings, Iannotti, & Zahn-Waxler, 1985). Although investigators have examined the impact of marital discord on older children (e.g., Crockenberg & Langrock, 2001), few have explored direct links in infancy (e.g., Cowan & Cowan, 1999). This study extends earlier work by examining linkages between marital functioning (conflict and harmony) and infants' cardiac vagal tone and developmental status across 2 time points using a cross-lag approach. Differential findings were found for boys and girls, with concurrent linkages between marital love and vagal tone at 6 months for boys and girls but only for boys at 12 months. In addition, marital conflict at 6 months predicted lower cardiac vagal tone in girls at 12 months but not boys. Finally, infants' developmental status at 6 months was found to predict marital conflict at 12 months. Higher scores on the Psychomotor Development Index (PDI) predicted greater marital conflict whereas higher scores on the Mental Development Index (MDI) predicted lower conflict. These findings are discussed in the context of the emotional security hypothesis and the spillover framework as well as differential susceptibilities to early developmental contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Relation between myocardial infarction, depression, hostility, and death.

PubMed

Kaufmann, M W; Fitzgibbons, J P; Sussman, E J; Reed, J F; Einfalt, J M; Rodgers, J K; Fricchione, G L

1999-09-01

To examine the independent impact of major depression and hostility on mortality rate at 6 months and 12 months after discharge from the hospital in patients with a myocardial infarction. Three hundred thirty-one patients were prospectively evaluated for depression with a modified version of the National Institute of Mental Health Diagnostic Interview Schedule for major depressive episode. The Cook Medley Hostility Scale data were analyzed by chi(2) procedures for nominal and categoric data, and Student t test was used for continuous data types. Depression was a significant predictor of death at 12 months (P =. 04) but not at 6 months (P =.08). Hostility was not found to be a predictor of death at 6 months or 12 months. Major depression in patients hospitalized after myocardial infarction is a significant univariable predictor of death at 12 months, although it was not a statistically significant predictor after adjusting for other variables. Hostility is not a predictor of death. Prospective studies are needed to determine the impact of aggressive treatment of depression on post-myocardial infarction survival.

Fatigue failure of the cephalomedullary nail: revision options, outcomes and review of the literature.

PubMed

Tucker, Adam; Warnock, Michael; McDonald, Sinead; Cusick, Laurence; Foster, Andrew P

2018-04-01

Cephalomedullary nail (CMN) failure is a rare entity following hip fracture treatment. However, it poses significant challenges for revision surgery, both mechanically and biologically. Nail failure rates have been reported at < 2%; however, no published studies have reported revision surgery procedures and their respective outcomes. We present a regional experience, with outcomes, of the revision options. We identified 20 fatigued CMNs that underwent four different revision procedures. Mean age was 73 ± 15.24 years, with a 3:1 female preponderance, and a median ASA grade of 3. Post-operative CMN radiographs demonstrated a significant number of fractures were fixed in varus, with reductions in neck-shaft angles post-operatively. A "poor" quality of reduction resulted in significantly earlier nail failure, compared to "adequate" and "good" (p = 0.027). Tip-Apex Distance (TAD) mean was 23.2 ± 8.3 mm, and an adequate TAD with three-point fixation was seen in only 35% of cases. Mean time to failure was 401.0 ± 237.2 days, with mean age at failure of 74.0 ± 14.8 years. Options after failure included revision CMN nail, proximal femoral locking plate (PFLP), long-stem or restoration arthroplasty, or femoral endoprosthesis. Barthel Functional Index scores showed no significant difference at 3 and 12 months post-operatively, nor any difference between treatment groups. Mean 12-month mortality was 30%, akin to a primary hip fracture mortality risk according to NICE guidelines. Mortality rates were lowest in revision nails. Subsequent revision rates were higher in the PFLP group. There is no reported evidence on the best surgical technique for managing the failed CMN, with no clear functional benefit in the options above. Good surgical technique at the time of primary CMN surgery is critical in minimising fatigue failure. After revision, overall mortality rates were equivalent to reported primary hip fracture mortality rates. Further multicentre evaluations are required to assess which technique convey the best functional outcomes without compromising 12-month mortality rates.

Conventional and advanced time series estimation: application to the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database, 1993-2006.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2011-02-01

Time series analysis has seen limited application in the biomedical Literature. The utility of conventional and advanced time series estimators was explored for intensive care unit (ICU) outcome series. Monthly mean time series, 1993-2006, for hospital mortality, severity-of-illness score (APACHE III), ventilation fraction and patient type (medical and surgical), were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Analyses encompassed geographical seasonal mortality patterns, series structural time changes, mortality series volatility using autoregressive moving average and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models in which predicted variances are updated adaptively, and bivariate and multivariate (vector error correction models) cointegrating relationships between series. The mortality series exhibited marked seasonality, declining mortality trend and substantial autocorrelation beyond 24 lags. Mortality increased in winter months (July-August); the medical series featured annual cycling, whereas the surgical demonstrated long and short (3-4 months) cycling. Series structural breaks were apparent in January 1995 and December 2002. The covariance stationary first-differenced mortality series was consistent with a seasonal autoregressive moving average process; the observed conditional-variance volatility (1993-1995) and residual Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity effects entailed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model, preferred by information criterion and mean model forecast performance. Bivariate cointegration, indicating long-term equilibrium relationships, was established between mortality and severity-of-illness scores at the database level and for categories of ICUs. Multivariate cointegration was demonstrated for {log APACHE III score, log ICU length of stay, ICU mortality and ventilation fraction}. A system approach to understanding series time-dependence may be established using conventional and advanced econometric time series estimators. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A proteinuria cut-off level of 0.7 g/day after 12 months of treatment best predicts long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis: data from the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial

PubMed Central

Tamirou, Farah; Lauwerys, Bernard R; Dall'Era, Maria; Mackay, Meggan; Rovin, Brad; Cervera, Ricard; Houssiau, Frédéric A

2015-01-01

Background Although an early decrease in proteinuria has been correlated with good long-term renal outcome in lupus nephritis (LN), studies aimed at defining a cut-off proteinuria value are missing, except a recent analysis performed on patients randomised in the Euro-Lupus Nephritis Trial, demonstrating that a target value of 0.8 g/day at month 12 optimised sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of good renal outcome. The objective of the current work is to validate this target in another LN study, namely the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial (MNT). Methods Long-term (at least 7 years) renal function data were available for 90 patients randomised in the MNT. Receiver operating characteristic curves were built to test the performance of proteinuria measured within the 1st year as short-term predictor of long-term renal outcome. We calculated the positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV). Results After 12 months of treatment, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day best predicted good renal outcome, with a sensitivity and a specificity of 71% and 75%, respectively. The PPV was high (94%) but the NPV low (29%). Addition of the requirement of urine red blood cells ≤5/hpf as response criteria at month 12 reduced sensitivity from 71% to 41%. Conclusions In this cohort of mainly Caucasian patients suffering from a first episode of LN in most cases, achievement of a proteinuria <0.7 g/day at month 12 best predicts good outcome at 7 years and inclusion of haematuria in the set of criteria at month 12 undermines the sensitivity of early proteinuria decrease for the prediction of good outcome. The robustness of these conclusions stems from the very similar results obtained in two distinct LN cohorts. Trial registration number: NCT00204022. PMID:26629352

Functional Outcome Trajectories after Out-of Hospital Pediatric Cardiac Arrest

PubMed Central

Silverstein, Faye S; Slomine, Beth; Christensen, James; Holubkov, Richard; Page, Kent; Dean, J. Michael; Moler, Frank

2016-01-01

Objective To analyze functional performance measures collected prospectively during the conduct of a clinical trial that enrolled children (up to age 18 years), resuscitated after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, who were at high risk for poor outcomes. Design Children with Glasgow Motor Scales <5, within 6 hours of resuscitation, were enrolled in a clinical trial that compared two targeted temperature management interventions (THAPCA-OH, NCT00878644). The primary outcome, 12-month survival with Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, second edition (VABS-II) score ≥70, did not differ between groups. Setting 38 North American pediatric ICU’s. Participants 295 children were enrolled; 270/295 had baseline VABS-II scores ≥70; 87/270 survived one year. Interventions Targeted temperatures were 33.0°C and 36.8°C for hypothermia and normothermia groups. Measurements and Main Results Baseline measures included VABS-II, Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category(PCPC), and Pediatric Overall Performance Category (POPC). PCPC and POPC were rescored at hospital discharges; all three were scored at 3 and 12 months. In survivors with baseline VABS-II scores ≥70, we evaluated relationships of hospital discharge PCPC with 3 and 12 month scores, and between 3 and 12 month VABS-II scores. Hospital discharge PCPC scores strongly predicted 3 and 12 month PCPC (r=0.82,0.79; p<0.0001) and VABS-II scores (r=−0.81,−0.77; p<0.0001) Three month VABS-II scores strongly predicted 12 month performance (r=0.95, p<0.0001). Hypothermia treatment did not alter these relationships. Conclusions In comatose children, with Glasgow Motor Scales <5 in the initial hours after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest resuscitation, function scores at hospital discharge and at 3 months predicted 12-month performance well in the majority of survivors. PMID:27509385

Epidemiologic features, risk factors, and outcome of sepsis in stroke patients treated on a neurologic intensive care unit.

PubMed

Berger, Benjamin; Gumbinger, Christoph; Steiner, Thorsten; Sykora, Marek

2014-04-01

Because of the immune-suppressive effect of cerebral damage, stroke patients are at high risk for infections. These might result in sepsis, which is the major contributor to intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Although there are numerous studies on infections in stroke patients, the role of sepsis as a poststroke complication is unknown. We retrospectively analyzed incidence of and risk factors for sepsis acquisition as well as outcome parameters of 238 patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes consecutively admitted to the neurologic ICU in a tertiary university hospital between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2010. Basic demographic and clinical data including microbiological parameters as well as factors describing stroke severity (eg, lesion volume and National Institute of Health stroke scale score) were recorded and included into the analysis. The diagnosis of sepsis was based on the criteria of the German Sepsis Society. We identified 30 patients (12.6%) with sepsis within the first 7 days from stroke onset. The lungs were the most frequent source of infection (93.3%), and gram-positive organisms were dominating the microbiologic spectrum (52.4%). Comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and immunosuppressive disorders) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II but none of the factors describing stroke severity were independent predictors of sepsis acquisition. Sepsis was associated with a significantly worse prognosis, leading to a 2-fold increased mortality rate during in-hospital care (36.7% vs 18.8%) and after 3 months (56.5% vs 28.5%), but only in the subgroup of supratentorial hemorrhages, it was an independent predictor of in-hospital and 3-month mortality. Other factors significantly associated with death in a multivariate analysis were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, malignancies (in-hospital mortality only), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (3-month mortality only) for ischemia and heart failure (in-hospital mortality only), National Institute of Health stroke scale score (in-hospital mortality only), and stroke volume for hemorrhages, respectively. Sepsis seems to be a frequent complication of stroke patients requiring neurologic ICU treatment. Predictors of sepsis acquisition in our study were comorbidities and severity of deterioration of physiological status, but not stroke severity. A better understanding of risk factors is important for prevention and early recognition, whereas knowledge of outcome may help in prognosis prediction. Further studies are needed to clarify the optimal preventive treatment for these patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality Burden and Socioeconomic Status in India

PubMed Central

Po, June Y. T.; Subramanian, S. V.

2011-01-01

Background The dimensions along which mortality is patterned in India remains unclear. We examined the specific contribution of social castes, household income, assets, and monthly per capita consumption to mortality differentials in India. Methods and Findings Cross-sectional data on 217 363 individuals from 41 554 households from the 2004–2005 India Human Development Survey was analyzed using multiple logistic regressions. Mortality differentials across social castes were attenuated after adjusting for household economic factors such as income and assets. Individuals living in the lowest income and assets quintiles had an increased risk of mortality with odds ratio (OR) of 1.66 (95% CI  = 1.23–2.24) in the bottom income quintile and OR of 2.94 (95% CI  = 1.66–5.22) in the bottom asset quintile. Counter-intuitively, individuals living in households with lowest monthly consumption per capita had significantly lower probability of death (OR  = 0.27, 95% CI  = 0.20–0.38). Conclusions Mortality burden in India is largely patterned on economic dimensions as opposed to caste dimensions, though caste may play an important role in predicting economic opportunities. PMID:21347373

The ecological impact of invasive cane toads on tropical snakes: field data do not support laboratory-based predictions.

PubMed

Brown, Gregory P; Phillips, Benjamin L; Shine, Richard

2011-02-01

Predicting which species will be affected by an invasive taxon is critical to developing conservation priorities, but this is a difficult task. A previous study on the impact of invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) on Australian snakes attempted to predict vulnerability a priori based on the assumptions that any snake species that eats frogs, and is vulnerable to toad toxins, may be at risk from the toad invasion. We used time-series analyses to evaluate the accuracy of that prediction, based on >3600 standardized nocturnal surveys over a 138-month period on 12 species of snakes and lizards on a floodplain in the Australian wet-dry tropics, bracketing the arrival of cane toads at this site. Contrary to prediction, encounter rates with most species were unaffected by toad arrival, and some taxa predicted to be vulnerable to toads increased rather than declined (e.g., death adder Acanthophis praelongus; Children's python Antaresia childreni). Indirect positive effects of toad invasion (perhaps mediated by toad-induced mortality of predatory varanid lizards) and stochastic weather events outweighed effects of toad invasion for most snake species. Our study casts doubt on the ability of a priori desktop studies, or short-term field surveys, to predict or document the ecological impact of invasive species.

Do commonly used frailty models predict mortality, loss of autonomy and mental decline in older adults in northwestern Russia? A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Korystina, Elena; Zelenukha, Dmitry; Tadjibaev, Pulodjon; Gurina, Natalia; Turkeshi, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2016-05-09

Frailty prevalence differs across countries depending on the models used to assess it that are based on various conceptual and operational definitions. This study aims to assess the clinical validity of three frailty models among community-dwelling older adults in north-western Russia where there is a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and lower life expectancy than in European countries. The Crystal study is a population-based prospective cohort study in Kolpino, St. Petersburg, Russia. A random sample of the population living in the district was stratified into two age groups: 65-75 (n = 305) and 75+ (n = 306) and had a baseline comprehensive health assessment followed by a second one after 33.4 +/-3 months. The total observation time was 47 +/-14.6 months. Frailty was assessed according to the models of Fried, Puts and Steverink-Slaets. Its association with mortality at 5 years follow-up as well as dependency, mental and physical decline at around 2.5 years follow up was explored by multivariable and time-to-event analyses. Mortality was predicted independently from age, sex and comorbidities only by the frail status of the Fried model in those over 75 years old [HR (95 % CI) = 2.50 (1.20-5.20)]. Mental decline was independently predicted only by pre-frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.24 (0.10-0.55)] and frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.196 (0.06-0.67)] status of Fried model in those 65-75 years old. The prediction of dependency and physical decline by pre-frail and frail status of any the three frailty models was not statistically significant in this cohort of older adults. None of the three frailty models was valid at predicting 5 years mortality and disability, mental and physical decline at 2.5 years in a cohort of older adults in north-west Russia. Frailty by the Fried model had only limited value for mortality in those 75 years old and mental decline in those 65-75 years old. Further research is needed to identify valid frailty markers for older adults in this population.

Non-specific effect of measles vaccination on overall child mortality in an area of rural India with high vaccination coverage: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed Central

Kabir, Zubair; Long, Jean; Reddaiah, Vankadara P.; Kevany, John; Kapoor, Suresh K.

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether vaccination against measles in a population with sustained high vaccination coverage and relatively low child mortality reduces overall child mortality. METHODS: In April and May 2000, a population-based, case-control study was conducted at Ballabgarh (an area in rural northern India). Eligible cases were 330 children born between 1 January 1991 and 31 December 1998 who died aged 12-59 months. A programme was used to match 320 controls for age, sex, family size, and area of residence from a birth cohort of 15 578 born during the same time period. FINDINGS: The analysis used 318 matched pairs and suggested that children aged 12-59 months who did not receive measles vaccination in infancy were three times more likely to die than those vaccinated against measles. Children from lower caste households who were not vaccinated in infancy had the highest risk of mortality (odds ratio, 8.9). A 27% increase in child mortality was attributable to failure to vaccinate against measles in the study population. CONCLUSION: Measles vaccine seems to have a non-specific reducing effect on overall child mortality in this population. If true, children in lower castes may reap the greatest gains in survival. The findings should be interpreted with caution because the nutritional status of the children was not recorded and may be a residual confounder. "All-cause mortality" is a potentially useful epidemiological endpoint for future vaccine trials. PMID:12764490

Prediction and prognosis of ventricular tachycardia recurrence after catheter ablation with remote magnetic navigation for electrical storm in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Jin, Qi; Jacobsen, Peter Karl; Pehrson, Steen; Chen, Xu

2017-11-01

Ventricular tachycardia (VT) recurrence after catheter ablation for electrical storm is commonly seen in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM). We hypothesized that VT recurrence can be predicted and be related to the all-cause death after VT storm ablation guided by remote magnetic navigation (RMN) in patients with ICM. A total of 54 ICM patients (87% male; mean age, 65 ± 7.1 years) presenting with VT storm undergoing acute ablation using RMN were enrolled. Acute complete ablation success was defined as noninducibility of any sustained monomorphic VT at the end of the procedure. Early VT recurrence was defined as the occurrence of sustained VT within 1 month after the first ablation. After a mean follow-up of 17.1 months, 27 patients (50%) had freedom from VT recurrence. Sustained VT recurred in 12 patients (22%) within 1 month following the first ablation. In univariate analysis, VT recurrence was associated with incomplete procedural success (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-32.47, P = 0.029), lack of amiodarone usage before ablation (HR: 4.71, 95% CI: 1.12-19.7, P = 0.034), and a longer procedural time (HR: 1.023, 95% CI: 1.00-1.05, P = 0.05). The mortality of patients with early VT recurrence was higher than that of patients without recurrence (P < 0.01). Inducibility of any VT at the end of procedure for VT storm guided by RMN is the strongest predictor of VT recurrence. ICM patients who have early recurrences after VT storm ablation are at high risk of all-cause death. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exposure to smoking depictions in movies: its association with established adolescent smoking.

PubMed

Sargent, James D; Stoolmiller, Mike; Worth, Keilah A; Dal Cin, Sonya; Wills, Thomas A; Gibbons, Frederick X; Gerrard, Meg; Tanski, Susanne

2007-09-01

To assess the association between exposure to movie smoking and established adolescent smoking. Longitudinal survey of a representative US adolescent sample. Adolescents were surveyed by telephone in their homes. Sixty-five hundred twenty-two US adolescents aged 10 to 14 years at baseline, resurveyed at 8 months (8M) (n = 5503), 16 months (16M) (n = 5019), and 24 months (24M) (n = 4575). Main Exposure Exposure to smoking in 532 box-office hits released in the 5 years prior to the baseline survey. Outcome Measure Established smoking (having smoked more than 100 cigarettes during lifetime). Of 108 incident established smokers with data at the 24M survey, 85% were current (30-day smokers) and 83% endorsed at least 1 addiction symptom. Established smoking incidence was 7.4, 15.8, and 19.7 per 1000 person-years of observation for the baseline-to-8M, 8M-to-16M, and 16M-to-24M observation periods, respectively. In a multivariate survival model, risk of established smoking was predicted by baseline exposure to smoking in movies with an adjusted overall hazard ratio of 2.04 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-4.12) for teens in the 95th percentile of movie-smoking exposure compared with the 5th percentile. This effect was independent of age; parent, sibling, or friend smoking; and sensation seeking. Teens low on sensation seeking were more responsive to the movie-smoking effect (hazard ratio, 12.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-80.6) compared with teens who were high on sensation seeking (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.4-2.6). In this national US adolescent sample, exposure to smoking in movies predicted risk of becoming an established smoker, an outcome linked with adult dependent smoking and its associated morbidity and mortality.

Quality of life measured with EuroQol-five dimensions questionnaire predicts long-term mortality, response, and reverse remodelling in cardiac resynchronization therapy patients.

PubMed

Nagy, Klaudia Vivien; Széplaki, Gábor; Perge, Péter; Boros, András Mihály; Kosztin, Annamária; Apor, Astrid; Molnár, Levente; Szilágyi, Szabolcs; Tahin, Tamás; Zima, Endre; Kutyifa, Valentina; Gellér, László; Merkely, Béla

2017-11-22

There are previous studies on quality of life (QoL) in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) patients; however, there are no data with the short EuroQol-five dimensions (EQ-5D) questionnaire predicting outcomes. We aimed to assess the predictive role of baseline QoL and QoL change at 6 months after CRT with EQ-5D on 5-year mortality and response. In our prospective follow-up study, 130 heart failure (HF) patients undergoing CRT were enrolled. Clinical evaluation, echocardiography, and EQ-5D were performed at baseline and at 6 months of follow-up, continued to 5 years. Primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 5 years. Secondary endpoints were (i) clinical response with at least one class improvement in New York Heart Association without HF hospitalization and (ii) reverse remodelling with 15% reduction in left ventricular end-systolic volume at 6 months. Fifty-four (41.5%) patients died during 5 years, 85 (65.3%) clinical responders were identified, and 63 patients (48.5%) had reverse remodelling. Baseline issues with mobility were associated with lower response [odds ratio (OR) 0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16-0.84; P = 0.018]. Lack of reverse remodelling correlated with self-care issues at baseline (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.01-0.94; P = 0.04). Furthermore, self-care difficulties [hazard ratio (HR) 2.39, 95% CI 1.17-4.86; P = 0.01) or more anxiety (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.00-2.26; P = 0.04) predicted worse long-term survival. At 6 months, mobility (HR 3.95, 95% CI 1.89-8.20; P < 0.001), self-care (HR 7.69, 95% CI 2.23-25.9; P = 0.001), or ≥ 10% visual analogue scale (VAS) (HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.27-3.94; P = 0.005) improvement anticipated better survival at 5 years. EuroQol-five dimension is a simple method assessing QoL in CRT population. Mobility issues at baseline are associated with lower clinical response, whereas self-care issues predict lack of reverse remodelling. Problems with mobility or anxiety before CRT and persistent issues with mobility, self-care, and VAS scale at 6 months predict adverse outcome. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology

Maternal education is associated with reduced female disadvantages in under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia.

PubMed

Monden, Christiaan W S; Smits, Jeroen

2013-02-01

The male:female (M:F) mortality ratio for under-five mortality varies considerably across and within societies. Maternal education has been linked to better outcomes for girls, but the evidence is mixed. We examined how the M:F ratio for under-five mortality varies by maternal education in sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. We used recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 31 sub-Saharan African and 4 southern Asian countries. M:F mortality ratios were determined using information on 49 769 deaths among 521 551 children. We estimate M:F ratios for under-five (month 0-59), neonatal (month 0), post-neonatal (month 1-11) and child mortality (month 12-59) by maternal education while controlling for demographic and household characteristics. M:F ratios for under-five mortality and child mortality are compared with more 'gender neutral' thresholds (of 1.25 and 1.17, respectively) estimated on the basis of the Human Mortality Database. In sub-Saharan Africa, the M:F ratio for under-five mortality is 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.13] among non-educated mothers, 1.14 (95% CI 1.09-1.19) among mothers with some primary education and 1.25 (95% CI 1.16-1.34) among mothers with some secondary or more education. For southern Asia, the ratios are 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.95), 1.10 (95% CI 0.97-1.25) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.02-1.26), respectively. The M:F ratio for child mortality also shows an educational gradient in both regions, with the M:F ratio being lower among non-educated mothers. In southern Asia, the M:F ratio for child mortality is particularly low among mothers with no education, M:F ratio = 0.54 (95% CI 0.41-0.72). Among mothers with more education, the difference in the mortality chances of boys and girls more closely resembles a 'gender neutral' situation than among women with no or little education. Girls benefit both in absolute and relative terms from having a more educated mother.

Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

PubMed

Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

2010-08-20

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods if information about the patient's diagnoses prior to the index hospitalization is available and used to code the risk adjusters. However, caution should be exercised in studies evaluating inpatient processes of care and where data on pre-index admission diagnoses are unavailable.

Clinical Usefulness of Measuring Red Blood Cell Distribution Width in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure.

PubMed

Jin, Lei; Gao, Yufeng; Ye, Jun; Zou, Guizhou; Li, Xu

2017-09-01

The red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is increased in chronic liver disease, but its clinical significance in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is still unclear. The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinical significance of RDW in HBV-ACLF patients. The medical records of HBV-ACLF patients who were admitted to The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between April 2012 and December 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Correlations between RDW, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were analyzed using the Spearman's approach. Multivariable stepwise logistic regression test was used to evaluate independent clinical parameters predicting 3-month mortality of HBV-ACLF patients. The association between RDW and hospitalization outcome was estimated by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. Patient survival was estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and subsequently compared by log-rank test. Sixty-two HBV-ACLF patients and sixty CHB patients were enrolled. RDW were increased in HBVACLF patients and positively correlated with the NLR as well as MELD scores. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that RDW value was an independent predictor for mortality. RDW had an area under the ROC of 0.799 in predicting 3-month mortality of HBV-ACLF patients. Patients with HBV-ACLF who had RDW > 17% showed significantly poorer survival than those who had RDW ≤ 17%. RDW values are significantly increased in patients with HBV-ACLF. Moreover, RDW values are an independent predicting factor for an in-hospital mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Two-year survival of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease subjects requiring invasive mechanical ventilation and the factors affecting survival.

PubMed

Asker, Selvi; Ozbay, Bulent; Ekin, Selami; Yildiz, Hanifi; Sertogullarindan, Bunyamin

2016-05-01

To investigate two-year survival rates and the factors affecting survival in patients of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. The retrospective study was conducted at Yuzuncuy?l University, Van, Turkey, and comprised record of in-patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who required invasive mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit of the Pulmonary Diseases Department between January 2007 and December 2010. Correlation between survival and parameters such as age, gender, duration of illness, history of smoking, arterial blood gas values, pulmonary artery pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, body mass index and laboratory findings were investigated. SPSS 19 was used for statistical analysis. Of the 69 severe COPD subjects available, 20 (29%) were excluded as they did not meet the inclusion criteria. Overall in-hospital mortality rate was 42% (n:29). Of the remaining 20 (29%) who comprised the study group, 14(70%) were men and 6(30%) were women. The mortality rates at the end of 3rd, 6th, 12th and 24th months were 61%, 76%, 84% and 85.5% respectively. There was no correlation between gender and survival in time point (p>0.05). The only factor that affected the rate of mortality at the end of the 3rd month was age (p<0.05). Mortality was high in subjects with advanced ages (p<0.05). Duration of illness affected the survival at the end of the six month (p<0.05). Survival rates were high in subjects with longer illness durations (p<0.05). Haematocrit level was the only factor that affected mortality rates at the end of 12th and 24th months (p<0.05). Subjects with higher haematocrit levels had higher survival rates (p<0.05). Age, duration of illness and haematocrit levels were the most important factors that affected survival in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients requiring mechanical ventilation.

Mortality differences between men and women following first myocardial infarction. RESCATE Investigators. Recursos Empleados en el Síndrome Coronario Agudo y Tiempo de Espera.

PubMed

Marrugat, J; Sala, J; Masiá, R; Pavesi, M; Sanz, G; Valle, V; Molina, L; Serés, L; Elosua, R

1998-10-28

Mortality after acute myocardial infarction is worse in women than in men, even after adjustment for comorbidity and age dissimilarities between sexes. To assess the influence of sex on survival after acute myocardial infarction. Inception cohort obtained in a prospective registry of patients with acute myocardial infarction from 1992 through 1994. Four teaching hospitals in northeastern Spain. All consecutive patients aged 80 years or younger with first acute myocardial infarction. A total of 331 women and 1129 men were included. Survival at 28 days and mortality or readmission at 6 months. Women were older (mean, 68.6 vs 60.1 years), presented more often with diabetes (52.9% vs 23.3%), hypertension (63.9% vs 42.3%), or previous angina (44.6% vs 37.4%), and developed more severe myocardial infarctions than men (acute pulmonary edema or cardiogenic shock occurred in 24.8% of women and 10.5% of men) (all P<.02). Men were more likely than women to receive thrombolytic therapy (41.3% vs 23.9%; P<.001), but rates of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft surgery at 28 days were similar among men and women. The 28-day mortality rate was significantly higher among women (18.5% for women, 8.3% for men; P<.001). Revascularization procedures at 6 months were performed in a similar proportion of women and men. However, women had higher 6-month mortality rates (25.8% in women, 10.8% in men; P<.001) and readmission rates (23.3% for women, 12.2% for men; P<.001). After adjustment, women had greater risk of death than men at 28 days (odds ratio [OR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.65) and at 6 months (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.18-2.52). In this study population, women experienced more lethal and severe first acute myocardial infarction than men, regardless of comorbidity, age, or previous angina.

Measuring and Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Older Survivors of Critical Illness

PubMed Central

Baldwin, Matthew R.

2015-01-01

Older adults (age ≥65 years) now initially survive what were previously fatal critical illnesses, but long-term mortality and disability after critical illness remain high. Most studies show that the majority of deaths among older ICU survivors occur during the first 6 to 12 months after hospital discharge. Recent studies of older ICU survivors have created a new standard for longitudinal critical care outcomes studies with a systematic evaluation of pre-critical illness comorbidities and disability and detailed assessments of physical and cognitive function after hospital discharge. These studies show that after controlling for pre-morbid health, older ICU survivors experience large and persistent declines in cognitive and physical function after critical illness. Long-term health-related quality-of-life studies suggest that some older ICU survivors may accommodate to a degree of physical disability and still report good emotional and social well-being, but these studies are subject to survivorship and proxy-response bias. In order to risk-stratify older ICU survivors for long-term (6–12 month) outcomes, we will need a paradigm shift in the timing and type of predictors measured. Emerging literature suggests that the initial acuity of critical illness will be less important, whereas pre-hospitalization estimates of disability and frailty, and, in particular, measures of comorbidity, frailty, and disability near the time of hospital discharge will be essential in creating reliable long-term risk-prediction models. PMID:24923682

Re-sprains during the first 3 months after initial ankle sprain are related to incomplete recovery: an observational study.

PubMed

van Middelkoop, Marienke; van Rijn, Rogier M; Verhaar, Jan A N; Koes, Bart W; Bierma-Zeinstra, Sita M A

2012-01-01

What are prognostic factors for incomplete recovery, instability, re-sprains and pain intensity 12 months after patients consult primary care practitioners for acute ankle sprains? Observational study. One hundred and two patients who consulted their general practitioner or an emergency department for an acute ankle sprain were included in the study. Possible prognostic factors were assessed at baseline and at 3 months follow-up. Outcome measures assessed at 12 months follow-up were self-reported recovery, instability, re-sprains and pain intensity. At 3 months follow-up, 65% of the participants reported instability and 24% reported one or more re-sprains. At 12 months follow-up, 55% still reported instability and more than 50% regarded themselves not completely recovered. None of the factors measured at baseline could predict the outcome at 12 months follow-up. Additionally, prognostic factors from the physical examination of the non-recovered participants at 3 months could not be identified. However, among the non-recovered participants at 3 months follow-up, re-sprains and self-reported pain at rest at 3 months were related to incomplete recovery at 12 months. A physical examination at 3 months follow-up for the non-recovered ankle sprain patient seems to have no additional value for predicting outcome at 12 months. However, for the non-recovered patients at 3 months follow-up, self-reported pain at rest and re-sprains during the first 3 months of follow-up seem to have a prognostic value for recovery at 12 months. Copyright © 2012 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Prolonged breast-feeding and mortality up to two years post-partum among HIV-positive women in Zambia

PubMed Central

Kuhn, Louise; Kasonde, Prisca; Sinkala, Moses; Kankasa, Chipepo; Semrau, Katherine; Vwalika, Cheswa; Tsai, Wei-Yann; Aldrovandi, Grace M.; Thea, Donald M.

2005-01-01

Background A previously reported association between prolonged lactation and maternal mortality has generated concern that breast-feeding may be detrimental for HIV-positive women. Methods As part of a trial conducted in Lusaka, Zambia, 653 HIV-positive women were randomly assigned either to a counseling program that encouraged abrupt cessation of breast-feeding at 4 months (group A) or to a program that encouraged prolonged breast-feeding for the duration of the woman’s own informed choice (group B). We examined whether mortality up to 2 years post-partum increased with breast-feeding for a longer duration. Results There was no difference in mortality 12 months after delivery between 326 HIV-positive women randomly assigned to short breast-feeding [group A: 4.93%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.42–7.46] versus 327 women assigned to long breast-feeding (group B: 4.89%; 95% CI, 2.38–7.40). Analysis based on actual practice, rather than random assignment, also demonstrated no increased mortality due to breast-feeding. Conclusions Although HIV-related mortality was high in this cohort of untreated HIV-positive women, prolonged lactation was not associated with increased mortality. PMID:16184038

Mortality in HIV-Infected Alcohol and Drug Users in St. Petersburg, Russia

PubMed Central

Fairbairn, Nadia S.; Walley, Alexander Y.; Cheng, Debbie M.; Quinn, Emily; Bridden, Carly; Chaisson, Christine; Blokhina, Elena; Lioznov, Dmitry; Krupitsky, Evgeny; Raj, Anita; Samet, Jeffrey H.

2016-01-01

In Russia, up to half of premature deaths are attributed to hazardous drinking. The respective roles of alcohol and drug use in premature death among people with HIV in Russia have not been described. Criminalization and stigmatization of substance use in Russia may also contribute to mortality. We explored whether alcohol, drug use and risk environment factors are associated with short-term mortality in HIV-infected Russians who use substances. Secondary analyses were conducted using prospective data collected at baseline, 6 and 12-months from HIV-infected people who use substances recruited between 2007–2010 from addiction and HIV care settings in a single urban setting of St. Petersburg, Russia. We used Cox proportional hazards models to explore associations between 30-day alcohol hazardous drinking, injection drug use, polysubstance use and environmental risk exposures (i.e. past incarceration, police involvement, selling sex, and HIV stigma) with mortality. Among 700 participants, 59% were male and the mean age was 30 years. There were 40 deaths after a median follow-up of 12 months (crude mortality rate 5.9 per 100 person-years). In adjusted analyses, 30-day NIAAA hazardous drinking was significantly associated with mortality compared to no drinking [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 2.60, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.24–5.44] but moderate drinking was not (aHR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.35–2.59). No other factors were significantly associated with mortality. The high rates of short-term mortality and the strong association with hazardous drinking suggest a need to integrate evidence-based alcohol interventions into treatment strategies for HIV-infected Russians. PMID:27898683

Mortality at older ages and moves in residential and sheltered housing: evidence from the UK

PubMed Central

Robards, James; Evandrou, Maria; Falkingham, Jane; Vlachantoni, Athina

2014-01-01

Background The study examines the relationship between transitions to residential and sheltered housing and mortality. Past research has focused on housing moves over extended time periods and subsequent mortality. In this paper, annual housing transitions allow the identification of the patterning of housing moves, the duration of stay in each sector and the assessment of the relationship of preceding moves to a heightened risk of dying. Methods The study uses longitudinal data constructed from pooled observations from the British Household Panel Survey (waves 1993–2008). Records were pooled for all cases where the survey member is 65 years or over and living in private housing at baseline and observed at three consecutive time points, including baseline (N=23 727). Binary logistic regression (death as outcome three waves after baseline) explored the relative strength of different housing transitions, controlling for sociodemographic predictors. Results (1) Transition to residential housing within the previous 12 months was associated with the highest mortality risk. (2) Results support existing findings showing an interaction between marital status and mortality, whereby unmarried persons were more likely to die. (3) Higher male mortality was observed across all housing transitions. Conclusions An older person's move to residential housing is associated with a higher risk of mortality within 12 months of the move. Survivors living in residential housing for more than a year, show a similar probability of dying to those living in sheltered housing. Results highlight that it is the type of accommodation that affects an older person's mortality risk, and the length of time they spend there. PMID:24638058

Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study

PubMed Central

Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

2016-01-01

Abstract Background The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long‐term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. Methods We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow‐up period following the baseline investigation. Results Two hundred and eighty‐eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty‐nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow‐up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non‐sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P < 0.001). After adjusting for age, sex and other confounders, sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25–4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17–2.80). Conclusions Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long‐term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. PMID:27896949

Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study.

PubMed

Yang, Ming; Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

2017-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long-term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow-up period following the baseline investigation. Two hundred and eighty-eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty-nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow-up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non-sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P < 0.001). After adjusting for age, sex and other confounders, sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25-4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17-2.80). Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long-term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

Measles vaccination in the presence or absence of maternal measles antibody: impact on child survival.

PubMed

Aaby, Peter; Martins, Cesário L; Garly, May-Lill; Andersen, Andreas; Fisker, Ane B; Claesson, Mogens H; Ravn, Henrik; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Whittle, Hilton C; Benn, Christine S

2014-08-15

Measles vaccine (MV) has a greater effect on child survival when administered in early infancy, when maternal antibody may still be present. To test whether MV has a greater effect on overall survival if given in the presence of maternal measles antibody, we reanalyzed data from 2 previously published randomized trials of a 2-dose schedule with MV given at 4-6 months and at 9 months of age. In both trials antibody levels had been measured before early measles vaccination. In trial I (1993-1995), the mortality rate was 0.0 per 1000 person-years among children vaccinated with MV in the presence of maternal antibody and 32.3 per 1000 person-years without maternal antibody (mortality rate ratio [MRR], 0.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0-.52). In trial II (2003-2007), the mortality rate was 4.2 per 1000 person-years among children vaccinated in presence of maternal measles antibody and 14.5 per 1000 person-years without measles antibody (MRR, 0.29; 95% CI, .09-.91). Possible confounding factors did not explain the difference. In a combined analysis, children who had measles antibody detected when they received their first dose of MV at 4-6 months of age had lower mortality than children with no maternal antibody, the MRR being 0.22 (95% CI, .07-.64) between 4-6 months and 5 years. Child mortality in low-income countries may be reduced by vaccinating against measles in the presence of maternal antibody, using a 2-dose schedule with the first dose at 4-6 months (earlier than currently recommended) and a booster dose at 9-12 months of age. NCT00168558. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Interruption or deferral of antiretroviral therapy reduces markers of bone turnover compared with continuous therapy: the SMART Body Composition Substudy

PubMed Central

Hoy, Jennifer; Grund, Birgit; Roediger, Mollie; Ensrud, Kristine E.; Brar, Indira; Colebunders, Robert; De Castro, Nathalie; Johnson, Margaret; Sharma, Anjali; Carr, Andrew

2013-01-01

Bone mineral density (BMD) declines significantly in HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared the effects of intermittent versus continuous ART on markers of bone turnover in the Body Composition substudy of the Strategies for Management of AntiRetroviral Therapy (SMART) trial and determined whether early changes in markers predicted subsequent change in BMD. For 202 participants (median age 44 years, 17% female, 74% on ART) randomised to continuous or intermittent ART, plasma markers of inflammation and bone turnover were evaluated at baseline, months 4 and 12; BMD at the spine (dual X-ray absorptiometry [DXA] and computed tomography) and hip (DXA) was evaluated annually. Compared to the continuous ART group, mean bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bALP), osteocalcin, procollagen type 1 N-terminal propeptide (P1NP), N-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen (NTX), and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen (βCTX) decreased significantly in the intermittent ART group, whereas RANKL and the RANKL:osteoprotegerin (OPG) ratio increased (all p≤0.002 at month 4 and month 12). Increases in bALP, osteocalcin, P1NP, NTX, and βCTX at month 4 predicted decrease in hip BMD at month 12, while increases in RANKL and the RANKL:OPG ratio at month 4 predicted increase in hip and spine BMD at month 12. This study has shown that compared with continuous ART, interruption of ART results in a reduction in markers of bone turnover and increase in BMD at hip and spine, and that early changes in markers of bone turnover predict BMD changes at 12 months. PMID:23299909

Has beta-blocker use increased in patients with heart failure in internal medicine settings? Prognostic implications: RICA registry.

PubMed

González-García, Andrés; Montero Pérez-Barquero, Manuel; Formiga, Francesc; González-Juanatey, José R; Quesada, M Angustias; Epelde, Francisco; Oropesa, Roberto; Díez-Manglano, Jesús; Cerqueiro, José M; Manzano, Luis

2014-03-01

Underuse of beta-blockers has been reported in elderly patients with heart failure. The aim of this study was to evaluate the current prescription of beta-blockers in the internal medicine setting, and its association with morbidity and mortality in heart failure patients. The information analyzed was obtained from a prospective cohort of patients hospitalized for heart failure (RICA registry] database, patients included from March 2008 to September 2011) with at least one year of follow-up. We investigated the percentage of patients prescribed beta-blockers at hospital discharge, and at 3 and 12 months, and the relationship of beta-blocker use with mortality and readmissions for heart failure. Patients with significant valve disease were excluded. A total of 515 patients were analyzed (53.5% women), with a mean age of 77.1 (8.7) years. Beta-blockers were prescribed in 62.1% of patients at discharge. A similar percentage was found at 3 months (65.6%) and 12 months (67.9%) after discharge. All-cause mortality and the composite of all-cause mortality and readmission for heart failure were significantly lower in patients treated with beta-blockers (hazard ratio=0.59, 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.84 vs hazard ratio=0.64, 95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.83). This decrease in mortality was maintained after adjusting by age, sex, ejection fraction, functional class, comorbidities, and concomitant treatment. The findings of this study indicate that beta-blocker use is increasing in heart failure patients (mainly elderly) treated in the internal medicine setting, and suggest that the use of these drugs is associated with a reduction in clinical events. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Tuberculous Pericarditis is Multibacillary and Bacterial Burden Drives High Mortality

PubMed Central

Pasipanodya, Jotam G.; Mubanga, Mwenya; Ntsekhe, Mpiko; Pandie, Shaheen; Magazi, Beki T.; Gumedze, Freedom; Myer, Landon; Gumbo, Tawanda; Mayosi, Bongani M.

2015-01-01

Background Tuberculous pericarditis is considered to be a paucibacillary process; the large pericardial fluid accumulation is attributed to an inflammatory response to tuberculoproteins. Mortality rates are high. We investigated the role of clinical and microbial factors predictive of tuberculous pericarditis mortality using the artificial intelligence algorithm termed classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Patients were prospectively enrolled and followed in the Investigation of the Management of Pericarditis (IMPI) registry. Clinical and laboratory data of 70 patients with confirmed tuberculous pericarditis, including time-to-positive (TTP) cultures from pericardial fluid, were extracted and analyzed for mortality outcomes using CART. TTP was translated to log10 colony forming units (CFUs) per mL, and compared to that obtained from sputum in some of our patients. Findings Seventy patients with proven tuberculous pericarditis were enrolled. The median patient age was 35 (range: 20–71) years. The median, follow up was for 11.97 (range: 0·03–74.73) months. The median TTP for pericardial fluid cultures was 22 (range: 4–58) days or 3.91(range: 0·5–8·96) log10CFU/mL, which overlapped with the range of 3.24–7.42 log10CFU/mL encountered in sputum, a multi-bacillary disease. The overall mortality rate was 1.43 per 100 person-months. CART identified follow-up duration of 5·23 months on directly observed therapy, a CD4 + count of ≤ 199.5/mL, and TTP ≤ 14 days (bacillary load ≥ 5.53 log10 CFU/mL) as predictive of mortality. TTP interacted with follow-up duration in a non-linear fashion. Interpretation Patients with culture confirmed tuberculous pericarditis have a high bacillary burden, and this bacterial burden drives mortality. Thus proven tuberculosis pericarditis is not a paucibacillary disease. Moreover, the severe immunosuppression suggests limited inflammation. There is a need for the design of a highly bactericidal regimen for this condition. PMID:26870789

C-Reactive Protein and Prediction of 1-Year Mortality in Prevalent Hemodialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Bazeley, Jonathan; Bieber, Brian; Li, Yun; Morgenstern, Hal; de Sequera, Patricia; Combe, Christian; Yamamoto, Hiroyasu; Gallagher, Martin; Port, Friedrich K.

2011-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Measurement of C-reactive protein (CRP) levels remains uncommon in North America, although it is now routine in many countries. Using Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study data, our primary aim was to evaluate the value of CRP for predicting mortality when measured along with other common inflammatory biomarkers. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We studied 5061 prevalent hemodialysis patients from 2005 to 2008 in 140 facilities routinely measuring CRP in 10 countries. The association of CRP with mortality was evaluated using Cox regression. Prediction of 1-year mortality was assessed in logistic regression models with differing adjustment variables. Results Median baseline CRP was lower in Japan (1.0 mg/L) than other countries (6.0 mg/L). CRP was positively, monotonically associated with mortality. No threshold below which mortality rate leveled off was identified. In prediction models, CRP performance was comparable with albumin and exceeded ferritin and white blood cell (WBC) count based on measures of model discrimination (c-statistics, net reclassification improvement [NRI]) and global model fit (generalized R2). The primary analysis included age, gender, diabetes, catheter use, and the four inflammatory markers (omitting one at a time). Specifying NRI ≥5% as appropriate reclassification of predicted mortality risk, NRI for CRP was 12.8% compared with 10.3% for albumin, 0.8% for ferritin, and <0.1% for WBC. Conclusions These findings demonstrate the value of measuring CRP in addition to standard inflammatory biomarkers to improve mortality prediction in hemodialysis patients. Future studies are indicated to identify interventions that lower CRP and to identify whether they improve clinical outcomes. PMID:21868617

Five year experience in management of perforated peptic ulcer and validation of common mortality risk prediction models - are existing models sufficient? A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Anbalakan, K; Chua, D; Pandya, G J; Shelat, V G

2015-02-01

Emergency surgery for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Accurate and early risk stratification is important. The primary aim of this study is to validate the various existing MRPMs and secondary aim is to audit our experience of managing PPU. 332 patients who underwent emergency surgery for PPU at a single intuition from January 2008 to December 2012 were studied. Clinical and operative details were collected. Four MRPMs: American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score, Boey's score, Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) and Peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score were validated. Median age was 54.7 years (range 17-109 years) with male predominance (82.5%). 61.7% presented within 24 h of onset of abdominal pain. Median length of stay was 7 days (range 2-137 days). Intra-abdominal collection, leakage, re-operation and 30-day mortality rates were 8.1%, 2.1%, 1.2% and 7.2% respectively. All the four MRPMs predicted intra-abdominal collection and mortality; however, only MPI predicted leak (p = 0.01) and re-operation (p = 0.02) rates. The area under curve for predicting mortality was 75%, 72%, 77.2% and 75% for ASA score, Boey's score, MPI and PULP score respectively. Emergency surgery for PPU has low morbidity and mortality in our experience. MPI is the only scoring system which predicts all - intra-abdominal collection, leak, reoperation and mortality. All four MRPMs had a similar and fair accuracy to predict mortality, however due to geographic and demographic diversity and inherent weaknesses of exiting MRPMs, quest for development of an ideal model should continue. Copyright © 2015 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Temporal analysis of mortality due to intimate partner violence in Spain].

PubMed

Vives, Carmen; Caballero, Pablo; Álvarez-Dardet, Carlos

2004-01-01

To analyze the temporal distribution of mortality due to violence by intimate partners (VIP) and to identify possible temporal clusters in women deaths by VIP in Spain. We performed a descriptive epidemiological study based on the VIP deaths included in the database of the Federation of Divorced and Separated Women (1998-2003). The epidemic index (EI) was calculated as the ratio between the actual number of VIP deaths in a given month from January to July 2003 and the median number in the same month in the five preceding years. A Poisson model was used to analyze the distribution by years (1998-2002), seasons, months, and days. Simple regression analysis was performed with three-monthly means. A temporal cluster analysis was also carried out. In 2003, the EI of VIP mortality was high in January (EI = 1.6), March (EI = 1.2), May (EI = 1.5), June (EI = 2), and July (EI = 2.5). Compared with 1998 and Sundays, respectively, mortality due to VIP was significantly increased in 2001 (relative risk, RR = 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-2.20) and on Mondays (RR = 1.77; 95%CI, 1.13-2.76). The regression analyses confirmed an increase between the first three-month period of 1998 and the last three-month period of 2001. There were no differences between seasons and months. No temporal clusters of deaths were detected. VIP is currently an increasing epidemic in Spain with no clear temporal pattern. Political and legal efforts to reduce this problem do not seem to be successful.

Autologous CD34+ cell therapy improves exercise capacity, angina frequency and reduces mortality in no-option refractory angina: a patient-level pooled analysis of randomized double-blinded trials.

PubMed

Henry, Timothy D; Losordo, Douglas W; Traverse, Jay H; Schatz, Richard A; Jolicoeur, E Marc; Schaer, Gary L; Clare, Robert; Chiswell, Karen; White, Christopher J; Fortuin, F David; Kereiakes, Dean J; Zeiher, Andreas M; Sherman, Warren; Hunt, Andrea S; Povsic, Thomas J

2018-01-05

Autologous CD34+ (auto-CD34+) cells represent an attractive option for the treatment of refractory angina. Three double-blinded randomized trials (n = 304) compared intramyocardial (IM) auto-CD34+ cells with IM placebo injections to affect total exercise time (TET), angina frequency (AF), and major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Patient-level data were pooled from the Phase I, Phase II ACT-34, ACT-34 extension, and Phase III RENEW trials to determine the efficacy and safety of auto-CD34+ cells. Treatment effects for TET were analysed using an analysis of covariance mixed-effects model and for AF using Poisson regression in a log linear model with repeated measures. The Kaplan-Meier rate estimates for MACE were compared using the log-rank test. Autologous CD34+ cell therapy improved TET by 46.6 s [3 months, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13.0 s-80.3 s; P = 0.007], 49.5 s (6 months, 95% CI 9.3-89.7; P = 0.016), and 44.7 s (12 months, 95% CI - 2.7 s-92.1 s; P = 0.065). The relative frequency of angina was 0.78 (95% CI 0.63-0.98; P = 0.032), 0.66 (0.48-0.91; P = 0.012), and 0.58 (0.38-0.88; P = 0.011) at 3-, 6- and 12-months in auto-CD34+ compared with placebo patients. Results remained concordant when analysed by treatment received and when confined to the Phase III dose of 1 × 105 cells/kg. Autologous CD34 + cell therapy significantly decreased mortality (12.1% vs. 2.5%; P = 0.0025) and numerically reduced MACE (38.9% vs. 30.0; P = 0.14) at 24 months. Treatment with auto-CD34+ cells resulted in clinically meaningful durable improvements in TET and AF at 3-, 6- and 12-months, as well as a reduction in 24-month mortality in this patient-level meta-analysis. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2018. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery-incidence and predictors from a prospective observational cohort study at an Indian tertiary care centre.

PubMed

George, Rubin; Menon, Vidya P; Edathadathil, Fabia; Balachandran, Sabarish; Moni, Merlin; Sathyapalan, Dipu; Prasanna, Preetha; S, Gokuldas; Paul, Jerry; K K, Chandrababu; Kumar, Lakshmi; Pillai, Ashok

2018-05-01

Asymptomatic myocardial injury following noncardiac surgery (MINS) is an independent predictor of 30-day mortality and may go unrecognized based on standard diagnostic definition for myocardial infarction (MI). Given lack of published research on MINS in India, our study aims to determine incidence of MINS in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery at our tertiary care hospital, and evaluate the clinical characteristics including 30-day outcome.The prospective observational study included patients >65 years or >45 years with either hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), or peripheral arterial disease undergoing noncardiac surgery. MINS was peak troponin level of ≥0.03 ng/dL at 12-hour or 24-hour postoperative. All patients were followed for 30 days postoperatively. Predictors of MINS and mortality were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Patients categorized based on peak troponin cut-off values determined by receiver operating characteristic curve were analyzed by Kaplan-Meir test to compare the survival of patients between the groups.Among 1075 patients screened during 34-month period, the incidence of MINS was 17.5% (188/1075). Patients with DM, CAD, or who underwent peripheral nerve block anaesthesia were 1.5 (P < .01), 2 (P < .001), and 12 (P < .001) times, respectively, more likely to develop MINS than others. Patients with heart rates ≥96 bpm before induction of anesthesia were significantly associated with MINS (P = .005) and mortality (P = .02). The 30-day mortality in MINS cohort was 11.7% (22/188, 95% CI 7.5%-17.2%) vs 2.5% (23/887, 95% CI 1.7%-3.9%) in patients without MINS (P < .001). ECG changes (P = .002), peak troponin values >1 ng/mL (P = .01) were significantly associated with mortality. A peak troponin cut-off of >0.152 ng/mL predicted mortality among MINS patients at 72% sensitivity and 58% specificity. Lack of antithrombotic therapy following MINS was independent predictor of mortality (P < .001), with decreased mortality in patients who took post-op ASA (Aspirin) or Clopidogrel. Mortality among MINS patients with post-op ASA intake is 6.7% vs 12.1% among MINS patients without post-op ASA intake. Mortality among MINS patients with post-op Clopidogrel intake is 10.5% vs 11.8% among MINS patients without post-op Clopidogrel intake.A higher (17.5%, 95% CI 15-19%) incidence of MINS was observed in our patient cohort with significant association with 30-day mortality. Serial postoperative monitoring of troponin following noncardiac surgery as standard of care, would identify "at risk" patients translating to improved outcomes.

Mid-arm and calf circumferences are stronger mortality predictors than body mass index for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Ho, Shu-Chuan; Wang, Jiun-Yi; Kuo, Han-Pin; Huang, Chien-Da; Lee, Kang-Yun; Chuang, Hsiao-Chi; Feng, Po-Hao; Chen, Tzu-Tao; Hsu, Min-Fang

2016-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is currently the third most common cause of death in the world. Patients with COPD experience airflow obstruction, weight loss, skeletal muscle dysfunction, and comorbidities. Anthropometric indicators are risk factors for mortality in geriatric assessment. This study examined and compared the associations of anthropometric indicators, such as low body mass index (BMI), low mid-arm circumference (MAC), and low calf circumference (CC), with the prediction of a 3-year follow-up mortality risk in patients with COPD. We recruited nonhospitalized patients with COPD without acute conditions from a general hospital in Taiwan. The BMI, MAC, and CC of all patients were measured, and they were followed for 3 years through telephone interviews and chart reviews. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by BMI, MAC, and CC were analyzed. Variables univariately associated with survival were entered into a multivariate Cox regression model. The Bayesian information criterion was used to compare the predictive ability of the three anthropometric indicators to predict mortality rate. In total, 104 patients were included (mean ± standard deviation age, 74.2±6.9 years; forced expiratory volume in 1 second [%], 58.4±20.4 predicted; males, 94.2%); 22 patients (21.2%) died during the 36-month follow-up. During this long-term follow-up, the three anthropometric indicators could predict mortality risk in patients with COPD (low BMI [<21 kg/m(2)], hazard ratio [HR] =2.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.10-7.10; low MAC [<23.5 cm], HR =3.09, 95% CI =1.30-7.38; low CC [<30 cm], HR =4.40, 95% CI =1.82-10.63). CC showed the strongest potential in predicting the mortality risk, followed by MAC and BMI. Among the three anthropometric variables examined, CC can be considered a strong predictor of mortality risk in patients with COPD.

Apixaban: A Review in Venous Thromboembolism.

PubMed

Greig, Sarah L; Garnock-Jones, Karly P

2016-10-01

Apixaban (Eliquis ® ) is an oral, direct factor Xa inhibitor that is available for use in the treatment and secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Like other direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), apixaban has generally predictable pharmacological properties and does not require routine anticoagulation monitoring. In large phase III trials, oral apixaban was noninferior to subcutaneous enoxaparin sodium overlapped with and followed by oral warfarin (enoxaparin/warfarin) in the treatment of adults with acute VTE over 6 months with regard to the incidence of recurrent VTE or VTE-related death (AMPLIFY), and was significantly more effective than placebo in the prevention of recurrent VTE or all-cause mortality over 12 months in patients who had completed 6-12 months' anticoagulation treatment for VTE (AMPLIFY-EXT). Apixaban was generally well tolerated in these trials; the risks of major bleeding and the composite endpoint of major or clinically relevant nonmajor (CRNM) bleeding with apixaban were significantly lower than enoxaparin/warfarin in AMPLIFY and not significantly different from that of placebo in AMPLIFY-EXT. Similarly, in Japanese adults with acute VTE (AMPLIFY-J), apixaban was associated with a significantly lower risk of major or CRNM bleeding than unfractionated heparin plus warfarin, and no cases of recurrent VTE or VTE-related death over 24 weeks. Thus, apixaban is useful therapeutic alternative for the management of adults with VTE.

Comparison of three scoring systems for risk stratification in elderly patients wıth acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Kalkan, Çağdaş; Soykan, Irfan; Karakaya, Fatih; Tüzün, Ali; Gençtürk, Zeynep Bıyıklı

2017-04-01

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially life-threatening condition that requires rapid assessment and dynamic management. Several scoring systems are used to predict mortality and rebleeding in such cases. The aim of the present study was to compare three scoring systems for predicting short-term mortality, rebleeding, duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion in elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The present study included 335 elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Pre- and post-endoscopic Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores were calculated. The ability of these scores to predict rebleeding, mortality, duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion was determined. Pre- (4.5) and post-endoscopic (7.5) Rockall scores were superior to the Glasgow-Blatchford (12.5) score for predicting mortality (P = 0.006 and P = 0.015). Likewise, pre- (4.5) and post-endoscopic Rockall scores were superior to the respective Glasgow-Blatchford scores for predicting rebleeding (P = 0.013 and P = 0.03). There was an association between duration of hospitalization and mortality; as the duration of hospitalization increased the mortality rate increased. In all, 94% of patients hospitalized for a mean of 5 days were alive versus 56.1% of those hospitalized for 20 days, and 20.2% of those hospitalized for 40 days. In elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the Rockall score is clinically more useful for predicting mortality and rebleeding than the Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS65 scores; however, for predicting duration of hospitalization and the need for blood transfusion, the Glasgow-Blatchford score is superior to the Rockall and AIMS65 scores. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 575-583. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Effect of neonatal vitamin A supplementation on mortality in infants in Tanzania (Neovita): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

PubMed Central

Masanja, Honorati; Smith, Emily R; Muhihi, Alfa; Briegleb, Christina; Mshamu, Salum; Ruben, Julia; Noor, Ramadhani Abdallah; Khudyakov, Polyna; Yoshida, Sachiyo; Martines, Jose; Bahl, Rajiv; Fawzi, Wafaie W

2015-01-01

Summary Background Supplementation of vitamin A in children aged 6–59 months improves child survival and is implemented as global policy. Studies of the efficacy of supplementation of infants in the neonatal period have inconsistent results. We aimed to assess the efficacy of oral supplementation with vitamin A given to infants in the first 3 days of life to reduce mortality between supplementation and 180 days (6 months). Methods We did an individually randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of infants born in the Morogoro and Dar es Salaam regions of Tanzania. Women were identified during antenatal clinic visits or in the labour wards of public health facilities in Dar es Salaam. In Kilombero, Ulanga, and Kilosa districts, women were seen at home as part of the health and demographic surveillance system. Newborn infants were eligible for randomisation if they were able to feed orally and if the family intended to stay in the study area for at least 6 months. We randomly assigned infants to receive one dose of 50 000 IU of vitamin A or placebo in the first 3 days after birth. Infants were randomly assigned in blocks of 20, and investigators, participants’ families, and data analysis teams were masked to treatment assignment. We assessed infants on day 1 and day 3 after dosing, as well as at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after birth. The primary endpoint was mortality at 6 months, assessed by field interviews. The primary analysis included only children who were not lost to follow-up. This trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR), number ACTRN12610000636055. Findings Between Aug 26, 2010, and March 3, 2013, 31 999 newborn babies were randomly assigned to receive vitamin A (n=15 995) or placebo (n=16 004; 15 428 and 15 464 included in analysis of mortality at 6 months, respectively). We did not find any evidence for a beneficial effect of vitamin A supplementation on mortality in infants at 6 months (26 deaths per 1000 livebirths in vitamin A vs 24 deaths per 1000 livebirths in placebo group; risk ratio 1·10, 95% CI 0·95–1·26; p=0·193). There was no evidence of a differential effect for vitamin A supplementation on mortality by sex; risk ratio for mortality at 6 months for boys was 1·08 (0·90–1·29) and for girls was 1·12 (0·91–1·39). There was also no evidence of adverse effects of supplementation within 3 days of dosing. Interpretation Neonatal vitamin A supplementation did not result in any immediate adverse events, but had no beneficial effect on survival in infants in Tanzania. These results strengthen the evidence against a global policy recommendation for neonatal vitamin A supplementation. PMID:25499543

Effects of severe obstetric complications on women's health and infant mortality in Benin.

PubMed

Filippi, Véronique; Goufodji, Sourou; Sismanidis, Charalambos; Kanhonou, Lydie; Fottrell, Edward; Ronsmans, Carine; Alihonou, Eusèbe; Patel, Vikram

2010-06-01

To document the impact of severe obstetric complications on post-partum health in mothers and mortality in babies over 12 months in Benin and to assess whether severe complications associated with perinatal death are particularly likely to lead to adverse health consequences. Cohort study which followed women and their babies after a severe complication or an uncomplicated childbirth. Women were selected in hospitals and interviewed at home at discharge, and at 6 and 12 months post-partum. Women were invited for a medical check-up at 6 months and 12 months. The cohort includes 205 women with severe complications and a live birth, 64 women with severe complications and perinatal death and 440 women with uncomplicated delivery. Women with severe complications and a live birth were not dissimilar to women with a normal delivery in terms of post-partum health, except for hypertension [adjusted OR = 5.8 (1.9-17.0)], fever [adjusted OR = 1.71 (1.1-2.8)] and infant mortality [adjusted OR = 11.0 (0.8-158.2)]. Women with complications and perinatal death were at increased risk of depression [adjusted OR = 3.4 (1.3-9.0)], urine leakages [adjusted OR = 2.7 (1.2-5.8)], and to report poor health [adjusted OR = 5.27 (2.2-12.4)] and pregnancy's negative effects on their life [adjusted OR = 4.11 (1.9-9.0)]. Uptake of post-natal services was poor in all groups. Women in developing countries face a high risk of severe complications during pregnancy and delivery. These can lead to adverse consequences for their own health and that of their offspring. Resources are needed to ensure that pregnant women receive adequate care before, during and after discharge from hospital. Near-miss women with a perinatal death appear a particularly high-risk group.

Comparison of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting mortality in critically ill patients*.

PubMed

Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Kramer, Andrew A; Rohs, Thomas; Hanna, Susan; Sadaka, Farid; O'Brien, Jacklyn; Bible, Shonna; Dickess, Stacy M; Foss, Michelle

2015-02-01

Impaired consciousness has been incorporated in prediction models that are used in the ICU. The Glasgow Coma Scale has value but is incomplete and cannot be assessed in intubated patients accurately. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score may be a better predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Thirteen ICUs at five U.S. hospitals. One thousand six hundred ninety-five consecutive unselected ICU admissions during a six-month period in 2012. Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score were recorded within 1 hour of admission. Baseline characteristics and physiologic components of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system, as well as mortality were linked to Glasgow Coma Scale/Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score information. None. We recruited 1,695 critically ill patients, of which 1,645 with complete data could be linked to data in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting ICU mortality using the Glasgow Coma Scale was 0.715 (95% CI, 0.663-0.768) and using the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.694-0.790), statistically different (p = 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant difference was found for predicting hospital mortality (p = 0.078). The respiratory and brainstem reflex components of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score showed a much wider range of mortality than the verbal component of Glasgow Coma Scale. In multivariable models, the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was more useful than the Glasgow Coma Scale for predicting mortality. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score might be a better prognostic tool of ICU mortality than the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients, most likely a result of incorporating brainstem reflexes and respiration into the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score.

RSV prophylaxis guideline changes and outcomes in children with congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Walpert, Adam S; Thomas, Ian D; Lowe, Merlin C; Seckeler, Michael D

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare inpatient outcomes and costs for children with respiratory syncytial virus and congenital heart disease before and after the change in management guidelines for respiratory syncytial virus prophylaxis. Hospital discharge data from the Vizient (formerly University HealthSystem Consortium) were queried from October 2012 to June 2014 (Era 1) and July 2014 to April 2016 (Era 2) for patients aged <24 months with an any International Classification of Disease (ICD)-9 or ICD-10 code for congenital heart disease (745-747.49, Q20.0-Q26.4) and a primary or secondary admitting diagnosis of respiratory syncytial virus infection (079.6, J20.5), acute bronchiolitis due to respiratory syncytial virus (466.11, J21.0) or respiratory syncytial virus pneumonia (480.1, J12.1). This study is a review of a national administrative discharge database. Respiratory syncytial virus admissions were identified in 1269 patients aged <24 months with congenital heart disease, with 644 patients in Era 1 and 625 in Era 2. Patients 0-12 months old represented 83% of admissions. Prior to 2014, children aged 0-24 months with congenital heart disease were eligible to receive respiratory syncytial virus prophylaxis. Updated guidelines, published in 2014, restricted the recommendation to administer palivizumab respiratory syncytial virus prophylaxis to children with congenital heart disease only if they are ≤12 months old. The outcome measures are hospital length of stay, ICU admission rate, mortality, and direct costs. There was no change in length of stay, ICU admission rate, in-hospital mortality, or direct costs for children 13-24 months old with congenital heart disease after the change in guidelines. There were no deaths in 13-24 month olds, regardless of era. Our findings provide additional support for the new guideline recommendations to provide respiratory syncytial virus prophylaxis only for children ≤12 months old with congenital heart disease. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Treating TTP/HUS with plasma exchange: a single centre's 25-year experience.

PubMed

Forzley, Brian R; Sontrop, Jessica M; Macnab, Jennifer J; Chen, Salina; Clark, William F

2008-10-01

Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura/Haemolytic uremic syndrome (TTP/HUS) is a thrombotic microangiopathy with a 6-month mortality rate of 16-29%. The present study described the clinical features, treatment regime and 6-month all-cause mortality rate of TTP/HUS patients at the London Health Sciences Centre (LHSC), Canada. Data for this retrospective cohort study were obtained from inpatient and outpatient records for all patients referred for plasma exchange therapy at LHSC, Canada between 1981 and 2006. Patients (n = 110) were categorized as: idiopathic primary (38%) or relapsed (16%), and secondary responsive (30%) or non-responsive (16%). Mortality data were available for all but three patients. The all-cause 6-month mortality rate was 19% overall and was 12% and 26% among idiopathic and secondary TTP/HUS patients, respectively. No mortality events occurred among the 17 idiopathic patients who relapsed. Relapsed patients had the least severe presenting characteristics, the fastest response time, and experienced significant improvement in the severity of clinical features between the first and final presentation. These findings suggest an excellent outcome for relapsed TTP/HUS patients. Patient education, surveillance, and aggressive plasma exchange therapy are hypothesized to improve the likelihood of survival: these hypotheses should be tested in a randomized controlled trial.

Outcomes of secondary self-expandable metal stents versus surgery after delayed initial palliative stent failure in malignant colorectal obstruction.

PubMed

Yoon, Jin Young; Park, Soo Jung; Hong, Sung Pil; Kim, Tae Il; Kim, Won Ho; Cheon, Jae Hee

2013-01-01

When re-intervention is required due to an occluded first colorectal self-expanding metal stent for malignant colorectal obstruction, serious controversies exist regarding whether to use endoscopic re-stenting or surgery. To compare the clinical outcomes in patients who underwent stent re-insertion versus palliative surgery as a second intervention. A total of 115 patients who received either self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) insertion or palliative surgery for treatment of a second occurrence of malignant colorectal obstruction after the first SEMS placement were retrospectively studied between July 2005 and December 2009. The median overall survival (8.2 vs. 15.5 months) and progression-free survival (4.0 vs. 2.7 months) were not significantly different between the stent and surgery groups (p = 0.895 and 0.650, respectively). The median lumen patency in the stent group was 3.4 months and that in the surgery group was 7.9 months (p = 0.003). The immediate complication rate after second stent insertion was 13.9% and late complication rate was observed in 12 of 79 (15.2%) patients. There was no mortality related to the SEMS procedure. The complication and mortality rates associated with palliative surgery were 3.5% (2/57) and 12.3% (7/57), respectively. Although there is no significant difference in the overall survival between stenting and surgery, a secondary stent insertion had a lower mortality rate despite a shorter duration of temporary colorectal decompression compared to that of palliative surgery.

Lung Cancer Survival Prediction using Ensemble Data Mining on Seer Data

DOE PAGES

Agrawal, Ankit; Misra, Sanchit; Narayanan, Ramanathan; ...

2012-01-01

We analyze the lung cancer data available from the SEER program with the aim of developing accurate survival prediction models for lung cancer. Carefully designed preprocessing steps resulted in removal/modification/splitting of several attributes, and 2 of the 11 derived attributes were found to have significant predictive power. Several supervised classification methods were used on the preprocessed data along with various data mining optimizations and validations. In our experiments, ensemble voting of five decision tree based classifiers and meta-classifiers was found to result in the best prediction performance in terms of accuracy and area under the ROC curve. We have developedmore » an on-line lung cancer outcome calculator for estimating the risk of mortality after 6 months, 9 months, 1 year, 2 year and 5 years of diagnosis, for which a smaller non-redundant subset of 13 attributes was carefully selected using attribute selection techniques, while trying to retain the predictive power of the original set of attributes. Further, ensemble voting models were also created for predicting conditional survival outcome for lung cancer (estimating risk of mortality after 5 years of diagnosis, given that the patient has already survived for a period of time), and included in the calculator. The on-line lung cancer outcome calculator developed as a result of this study is available at http://info.eecs.northwestern.edu:8080/LungCancerOutcomeCalculator/.« less

Platelet count recovery after intravenous immunoglobulin predicts a favorable outcome in children with immune thrombocytopenia

PubMed Central

Ji, Mi Hong; Kim, Sung Jin; Ahn, Hyo Seop

2016-01-01

Background Childhood immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) is a common acquired bleeding disorder. Even though most children recover, either spontaneously or with therapy, 10-20% of newly diagnosed ITP cases have a chronic course beyond 12 months. This study evaluated whether clinical and laboratory findings can predict the response to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and progression to persistent or chronic ITP in children. Methods During the period between March 2003 and June 2015, we retrospectively analyzed 72 children, newly diagnosed with ITP, who received IVIG treatment. Peripheral blood counts were obtained at diagnosis and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after IVIG treatment. Results After 6 months of IVIG treatment, 14 of 72 patients (19.4%) had persistent ITP, and after 12 months, 7 of 40 patients (17.5%) had chronic ITP. Age at diagnosis, gender, history of viral infection, or vaccination before disease onset were not statistically correlated with platelet recovery at 6 and 12 months. However, a platelet count recovery of ≥100×103/µL at 1 and 3 months was significantly correlated with platelet recovery at 6 (P<0.001 and P<0.001, respectively) and 12 (P=0.007 and P=0.004, respectively) months. Conclusion This study demonstrated that early platelet count recovery, at 1 and 3 months after IVIG treatment, predicts a short disease duration and a favorable outcome in children with newly diagnosed ITP. Further investigation in a larger group of patients is warranted to validate these findings. PMID:27382553

Utility of Cardiac Troponin to Predict Drug Overdose Mortality

PubMed Central

Stimmel, Barry; Hoffman, Robert S.; Vlahov, David

2016-01-01

Drug overdose is now the leading cause of injury-related mortality in the USA, but the prognostic utility of cardiac biomarkers is unknown. We investigated whether serum cardiac troponin I (cTnI) was associated with overdose mortality. This prospective observational cohort studied adults with suspected acute drug overdose at two university hospital emergency departments (ED) over 3 years. The endpoint was in-hospital mortality, which was used to determine test characteristics of initial/peak cTnI. There were 437 overdoses analyzed, of whom there were 20 (4.6 %) deaths. Mean initial cTnI was significantly associated with mortality (1.2 vs. 0.06 ng/mL, p <0.001), and the ROC curve revealed excellent cTnI prediction of mortality (AUC 0.87, CI 0.76–0.98). Test characteristics for initial cTnI (90 % specificity, 99 % negative predictive value) were better than peak cTnI (88.2 % specificity, 99.2 % negative predictive value), and initial cTnI was normal in only one death out of the entire cohort (1/437, CI 0.1–1.4 %). Initial cTnI results were highly associated with drug overdose mortality. Future research should focus on high-risk overdose features to optimize strategies for utilization of cTnI as part of the routine ED evaluation for acute drug overdose. PMID:26541348

Scaling up implementation of ART: Organizational culture and early mortality of patients initiated on ART in Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Ayah, Richard

2018-01-01

Scaling up the antiretroviral (ART) program in Kenya has involved a strategy of using clinical guidelines coupled with decentralization of treatment sites. However decentralization pushes clinical responsibility downwards to health facilities run by lower cadre staff. Whether the organizational culture in health facilities affects the outcomes despite the use of clinical guidelines has not been explored. This study aimed to demonstrate the relationship between organizational culture and early mortality and those lost to follow up (LTFU) among patients enrolled for HIV care. A stratified sample of 31 health facilities in Nairobi County offering ART services were surveyed. Data of patients enrolled on ART and LTFU for the 12 months ending 30th June 2013 were abstracted. Mortality and LTFU were determined and used to rank health facilities. In the facilities with the lowest and highest mortality and LTFU key informant interviews were conducted using a tool adapted from team climate assessment measurement questionnaire and competing value framework tool to assess organizational culture. The strength of association between early mortality, LTFU and organizational culture was tested. Half (51.8%) of the 5,808 patients enrolled into care in 31 health facilities over the 12-month study period were started on ART. Of these 48 (1.6% 95% CI 0.8%-2.4%) died within three months of starting treatment, while a further 125 (4.2% 95% CI 2.1%-6.6%) were LTFU giving an attrition rate of 5.7% (95% CI 3.3%-8.6%). Tuberculosis was the most common comorbidity associated with high early mortality and high LTFU. Organizational culture, specifically an adhocratic type was found to be associated with low early mortality and low LTFU of patients enrolled for HIV care (P = 0.034). The use of ART clinical guidelines in a decentralized health systems are not sufficient to achieve required service delivery outcomes. The attrition rate above would mean 85,000 Kenyans missing care based on current HIV disease burden figures. Deliberate efforts to improve individual health facility leadership and inculcate an adhocratic culture may lower mortality and morbidity associated with initiating ART.

CURB-65 Score is Equal to NEWS for Identifying Mortality Risk of Pneumonia Patients: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Brabrand, Mikkel; Henriksen, Daniel Pilsgaard

2018-06-01

The CURB-65 score is widely implemented as a prediction tool for identifying patients with community-acquired pneumonia (cap) at increased risk of 30-day mortality. However, since most ingredients of CURB-65 are used as general prediction tools, it is likely that other prediction tools, e.g. the British National Early Warning Score (NEWS), could be as good as CURB-65 at predicting the fate of CAP patients. To determine whether NEWS is better than CURB-65 at predicting 30-day mortality of CAP patients. This was a single-centre, 6-month observational study using patients' vital signs and demographic information registered upon admission, survival status extracted from the Danish Civil Registration System after discharge and blood test results extracted from a local database. The study was conducted in the medical admission unit (MAU) at the Hospital of South West Jutland, a regional teaching hospital in Denmark. The participants consisted of 570 CAP patients, 291 female and 279 male, median age 74 (20-102) years. The CURB-65 score had a discriminatory power of 0.728 (0.667-0.789) and NEWS 0.710 (0.645-0.775), both with good calibration and no statistical significant difference. CURB-65 was not demonstrated to be significantly statistically better than NEWS at identifying CAP patients at risk of 30-day mortality.

Prognostic value of plasma midregional pro-adrenomedullin and C-terminal-pro-endothelin-1 in chronic heart failure outpatients.

PubMed

Adlbrecht, Christopher; Hülsmann, Martin; Strunk, Guido; Berger, Rudolf; Mörtl, Deddo; Struck, Joachim; Morgenthaler, Nils G; Bergmann, Andreas; Jakowitsch, Johannes; Maurer, Gerald; Lang, Irene M; Pacher, Richard

2009-04-01

The identification of chronic heart failure (CHF) patients at high risk of adverse outcome remains a challenge. New peptides are emerging that may give additional information. In CHF patients, endothelin (ET) levels predict mortality risk. Adrenomedullin has been shown to predict mortality in ischaemic heart failure, but not in unselected or non-ischaemic CHF patients. Moreover, ADM and ET have never been assessed in one model. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of midregional-pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) and C-terminal-pro-endothelin-1 (CT-proET-1) in outpatients with CHF. We measured plasma MR-proADM and CT-proET-1 levels in 786 consecutive CHF outpatients and compared them with B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels. At 24-month follow-up, 233 patients had died. A stepwise forward Cox regression model with age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, NYHA > II, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), MR-proADM, CT-proET-1, and BNP as possible predictors revealed that MR-proADM levels [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.77, P < 0.001] in addition to age (HR = 1.02, P = 0.004), ejection fraction (HR = 0.98, P = 0.004), and NYHA > II (HR = 1.86, P < 0.001) were predictors of death at 24 months. When the analysis was repeated dependent on NYHA-stage, MR-proADM (HR = 2.12, P < 0.001) and LVEF (HR = 0.96, P = 0.006) were significant markers, but only in patients with mild/moderate CHF. Our data suggest that MR-proADM may be an important prognostic humoral marker, especially in mild/moderately symptomatic and non-ischaemic CHF patients.

Predicting short-term mortality in advanced decompensated heart failure - role of the updated acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic Peptide risk score.

PubMed

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Passantino, Andrea; Guida, Pietro; D'Angelo, Luciana; Oliva, Fabrizio; Ciccone, Marco Matteo; Iacoviello, Massimo; Dentamaro, Ilaria; Santoro, Daniela; Lagioia, Rocco; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Guzzetti, Daniela; Frigerio, Maria

2015-01-01

The first few months after admission are the most vulnerable period in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We assessed the association of the updated ADHF/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) risk score with 90-day and in-hospital mortality in 701 patients admitted with advanced ADHF, defined as severe symptoms of worsening HF, severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, and the need for i.v. diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. A total of 15.7% of the patients died within 90 days of admission and 5.2% underwent ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation or urgent heart transplantation (UHT). The C-statistic of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score for 90-day mortality was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.769-0.852). Predicted and observed mortality rates were in close agreement. When the composite outcome of death/VAD/UHT at 90 days was considered, the C-statistic decreased to 0.741. During hospitalization, 7.6% of the patients died. The C-statistic for in-hospital mortality was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.761-0.868) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.71 (P=0.716). The updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score outperformed the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry, the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Program predictive models. Updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score is a valuable tool for predicting short-term mortality in severe ADHF, outperforming existing inpatient predictive models.

β-Blockers on Discharge From Acute Atrial Fibrillation Are Associated With Decreased Mortality and Lower Cerebrovascular Accidents in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

PubMed

Abi Khalil, Charbel; Zubaid, Mohammad; Asaad, Nidal; Rashed, Wafa A; Hamad, Adel Khalifa; Singh, Rajvir; Al Suwaidi, Jassim

2018-04-01

The benefits of β-blockers in patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are controversial. The Gulf Survey of Atrial Fibrillation Events was a prospective, multinational, observational registry of consecutive patients with AF recruited from the emergency department (ED). We studied the incidence of 6- and 12-month mortality, hospitalization for HF or AF, and stroke/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) in patients with HFrEF, in relation to β-blockers on discharge from the ED or the subsequent hospital stay. Of the 344 patients with HFrEF and AF in the GULF-SAFE, 177 patients (53%) were discharged on β-blockers. Mortality was lower in those patients compared with the non-β-blockers group at 6 and 12 months (odds ratios [ORs] 0.31, 95% CI [0.16-0.61]; OR 0.30, 95% CI [0.16-0.55]; P = .001 for both, respectively), so was the risk of stroke/TIAs. However, hospitalizations for AF increased in the β-blockers group. Even after adjustment for several risk variables in 2 different models, the beneficial effect of β-blockers on mortality persisted, at the cost of more hospitalization for AF.

[Surgical treatment of colonic volvulus. 10-year experience at the Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubirán].

PubMed

Remes-Troche, J M; Pérez-Martínez, C; Rembis, V; Arch Ferrer, J; Ayala González, M; Takahashi, T

1997-01-01

To analyze morbidity-mortality and results of surgical treatment for colonic volvulus. Retrospective review of 33 patients who underwent surgical treatment for colonic volvulus from 1986 through 1996. Mean age was 62 +/- 20 years (SD) with predominance of female sex (2:1). There were 25 cases of sigmoid volvulus (76%), 7 in the cecum (21%) and 1 in the transverse colon (3%). Colonic necrosis and/or perforation were most frequently seen in the right and transverse colon (50%) than in the sigmoid (4%) (P < 0.002). Operative morbidity was 45% with mortality of 21%. Age was the only variable statistically significant for operative morbidity (52 +/- 23 years in patients without morbidity vs 71 +/- 17 years in patients with morbidity, P = 0.02). Surgical procedures for sigmoid volvulus were resection in 13 and fixation in 12. Recurrence after fixation was 38% to 12 months and 69% to 24 months (Kaplan-Meier), with associated mortality of 50%. There was no recurrence after resections. Treatment for cecal volvulus was cecopexy in 4 cases, with one recurrence; and right hemicolectomy without recurrence. The results should encourage resective procedures in sigmoid volvulus because the risk of recurrence after fixation is high and the morbidity-mortality is similar. Elderly patients are more susceptible to complications.

Association between anxiety and depression in patients with acute coronary syndromes due to financial crisis.

PubMed

Lampropoulos, Kostandinos; Kavvouras, Charalampos; Megalou, Aikaterini; Tsikouri, Pinelopi; Kafkala, Chrysanthi; Derka, Dimitra; Bonou, Maria; Barbetseas, John

2016-01-01

The effect of anxiety and depression on patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) warrants investigation, especially during periods of economic crisis. To investigate the relation between anxiety and depression in patients presenting with ACS due to financial crisis and to investigate whether these two entities could predict long-term cardiovascular mortality. Anxiety and depression symptoms were assessed in 350 patients (210 men) presenting with ACS, with 70 (20%) patients showing elevated scores (Hellenic Heart Failure Protocol). Over a mean follow-up of 48 months there were 36 (10%) cardiovascular deaths. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for other prognostic factors (including age, sex, marital status, creatinine levels, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, previous hospitalisation, and baseline medications) showed that elevated anxiety and depression scores significantly predicted cardiovascular mortality (primary outcome) and all-cause mortality. Elevated anxiety and depression symptoms are related to cardiovascular mortality due probably to financial crisis, even after adjustment for other prognostic indicators in patients with ACS, who received optimised medical treatment.

Predictive role of P-wave axis abnormalities in secondary cardiovascular prevention.

PubMed

Lazzeroni, Davide; Bini, Matteo; Camaiora, Umberto; Castiglioni, Paolo; Moderato, Luca; Ugolotti, Pietro Tito; Brambilla, Lorenzo; Brambilla, Valerio; Coruzzi, Paolo

2017-12-01

Background Abnormal P-wave axis has been correlated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a general population. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of abnormal P-wave axis in patients undergoing myocardial revascularisation or cardiac valve surgery. Methods We considered data of 810 patients with available P-wave axis measure from a prospective monocentric registry of patients undergoing cardiovascular rehabilitation. A total of 436 patients (54%) underwent myocardial revascularisation, 253 (31%) valve surgery, 71 (9%) combined valve and coronary artery bypass graft surgery and 50 (6%) cardiac surgery for other cardiovascular disease. Mean follow-up was 47 ± 27 months. Results Over the whole group, P-wave axis was 43.8° ± 27.5° and an abnormal P-wave axis was found in 94 patients (12%). The risk of overall (hazard ratio (HR) 2.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-4.0, P < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.5-5.8, P = 0.002) was significantly higher in patients with abnormal P-wave axis even after adjustment for age, other electrocardiographic variables (PR, QRS, QTc intervals), left ventricular ejection fraction and left atrial volume index. After dividing the population according to the type of disease, patients with abnormal P-wave axis and ischaemic heart disease had 3.9-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 3.9, 95% CI 1.3-12.1, P = 0.017), while a 2.2-fold higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-10.1, P = 0.015) was found in those with cardiac valve disease. Conclusion An abnormal P-wave axis represents an independent predictor of both overall and cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing myocardial revascularisation or cardiac valve surgery.

Validation of CRASH Model in Prediction of 14-day Mortality and 6-month Unfavorable Outcome of Head Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Hashemi, Behrooz; Amanat, Mahnaz; Baratloo, Alireza; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Rahmati, Farhad; Motamedi, Maryam; Safari, Saeed

2016-11-01

To date, many prognostic models have been proposed to predict the outcome of patients with traumatic brain injuries. External validation of these models in different populations is of great importance for their generalization. The present study was designed, aiming to determine the value of CRASH prognostic model in prediction of 14-day mortality (14-DM) and 6-month unfavorable outcome (6-MUO) of patients with traumatic brain injury. In the present prospective diagnostic test study, calibration and discrimination of CRASH model were evaluated in head trauma patients referred to the emergency department. Variables required for calculating CRASH expected risks (ER), and observed 14-DM and 6-MUO were gathered. Then ER of 14-DM and 6-MUO were calculated. The patients were followed for 6 months and their 14-DM and 6-MUO were recorded. Finally, the correlation of CRASH ER and the observed outcome of the patients was evaluated. The data were analyzed using STATA version 11.0. In this study, 323 patients with the mean age of 34.0 ± 19.4 years were evaluated (87.3% male). Calibration of the basic and CT models in prediction of 14-day and 6-month outcome were in the desirable range (P < 0.05). Area under the curve in the basic model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89-0.96) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95), respectively. In addition, area under the curve in the CT model for prediction of 14-DM and 6-MUO were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.97) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.96), respectively. There was no significant difference between the discriminations of the two models in prediction of 14-DM (p = 0.11) and 6-MUO (p = 0.1). The results of the present study showed that CRASH prediction model has proper discrimination and calibration in predicting 14-DM and 6-MUO of head trauma patients. Since there was no difference between the values of the basic and CT models, using the basic model is recommended to simplify the risk calculations.

Efficacy of Sacubitril/Valsartan Relative to a Prior Decompensation: The PARADIGM-HF Trial.

PubMed

Solomon, Scott D; Claggett, Brian; Packer, Milton; Desai, Akshay; Zile, Michael R; Swedberg, Karl; Rouleau, Jean; Shi, Victor; Lefkowitz, Martin; McMurray, John J V

2016-10-01

This study assessed whether the benefit of sacubtril/valsartan therapy varied with clinical stability. Despite the benefit of sacubitril/valsartan therapy shown in the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) trial, it has been suggested that switching from an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker should be delayed until occurrence of clinical decompensation. Outcomes were compared among patients who had prior hospitalization within 3 months of screening (n = 1,611 [19%]), between 3 and 6 months (n = 1,009 [12%]), between 6 and 12 months (n = 886 [11%]), >12 months (n = 1,746 [21%]), or who had never been hospitalized (n = 3,125 [37%]). Twenty percent of patients without prior HF hospitalization experienced a primary endpoint of cardiovascular death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization during the course of the trial. Despite the increased risk associated with more recent hospitalization, the efficacy of sacubitril/valsartan therapy did not differ from that of enalapril according to the occurrence of or time from hospitalization for HF before screening, with respect to the primary endpoint or with respect to cardiovascular or all-cause mortality. Patients with recent HF decompensation requiring hospitalization were more likely to experience cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization than those who had never been hospitalized. Patients who were clinically stable, as shown by a remote HF hospitalization (>3 months prior to screening) or by lack of any prior HF hospitalization, were as likely to benefit from sacubitril/valsartan therapy as more recently hospitalized patients. (Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure [PARADIGM-HF]; NCT01035255). Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vitamin A supplementation during war-emergency in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999.

PubMed

Nielsen, Jens; Benn, Christine S; Balé, Carlitos; Martins, Cesario; Aaby, Peter

2005-03-01

Vitamin A supplementation is recommended by WHO in emergency situations. To evaluate the impact of Vitamin A supplementation on childhood mortality in an emergency situation. Since this was not a randomised study, we evaluated the impact in different ways; we used the variation in the delay of provision of Vitamin A in a step-wedged design, compared wartime with pre-wartime mortality and examined whether Vitamin A as a free commodity reduced cultural and social-economic inequalities in childhood mortality. 5926 children 6 months to 5 years of age, resident in four suburbs in the capital of Guinea-Bissau between October 1, 1998 and March 31, 1999. From October 1, 1998 until the end of the war in 1999 all children present in the study area were offered Vitamin A at regular three-monthly visits to their homes. Using the variation in the provision of Vitamin A, we found a slight non-significant reduction in mortality for children between 6 months and 5 years of age (mortality ratio (MR) 0.49; 95% CI 0.09-2.70). Comparing with a three-year period before the war, children offered Vitamin A at home during the war had a 12% reduction in mortality (MR 0.88; 0.41-1.87), whereas the overall impact of the war was an 89% increase in mortality (MR 1.89; 1.32-2.71). Vitamin A supplementation was associated with a reduction in cultural and socio-economic inequalities. Vitamin A supplementation may have a beneficial impact on childhood mortality in an emergency situation.

Muscle strength and physical performance as predictors of mortality, hospitalization, and disability in the oldest old.

PubMed

Legrand, Delphine; Vaes, Bert; Matheï, Catharina; Adriaensen, Wim; Van Pottelbergh, Gijs; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2014-06-01

To evaluate the predictive value of muscle strength and physical performance in the oldest old for all-cause mortality; hospitalization; and the onset of disability, defined as a decline in activities of daily living (ADLs), independent of muscle mass, inflammatory markers, and comorbidities. A prospective, observational, population-based follow-up study. Three well-circumscribed areas of Belgium. Five hundred sixty participants aged 80 and older were followed for 33.5 months (interquartile range 31.1-35.6 months). Grip strength, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) score, and muscle mass were measured at baseline; ADLs at baseline and after 20 months; and all-cause mortality and time to first hospitalization from inclusion onward. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were calculated for all-cause mortality and hospitalization. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of decline in ADLs. Kaplan-Meier curves showed significantly higher all-cause mortality and hospitalization in subjects in the lowest tertile of grip strength and SPPB score. The adjusted Cox proportional hazards model showed that participants with high grip strength or a high SPPB score had a lower risk of mortality and hospitalization, independent of muscle mass, inflammatory markers, and comorbidity. A relationship was found between SPPB score and decline in ADLs, independent of muscle mass, inflammation, and comorbidity. In people aged 80 and older, physical performance is a strong predictor of mortality, hospitalization, and disability, and muscle strength is a strong predictor of mortality and hospitalization. All of these relationships were independent of muscle mass, inflammatory markers, and comorbidity. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

The Short-term Prognostic Value of the Triglyceride-to-high-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio in Acute Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Wang, Huan; Lei, Leix; Zhang, Han-Qing; Gu, Zheng-Tian; Xing, Fang-Lan; Yan, Fu-Ling

2018-01-01

The triglyceride (TG)-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (TG/HDL-C) is a simple approach to predicting unfavorable outcomes in cardiovascular disease. The influence of TG/HDL-C on acute ischemic stroke remains elusive. The purpose of this study was to investigate the precise effect of TG/HDL-C on 3-month mortality after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Patients with AIS were enrolled in the present study from 2011 to 2017. A total of 1459 participants from a single city in China were divided into retrospective training and prospective test cohorts. Medical records were collected periodically to determine the incidence of fatal events. All participants were followed for 3 months. Optimal cutoff values were determined using X-tile software to separate the training cohort patients into higher and lower survival groups based on their lipid levels. A survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 1459 patients with AIS (median age 68.5 years, 58.5% male) were analyzed. Univariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that TG/HDL-C was a significant prognostic factor for 3-month survival. X-tile identified 0.9 as an optimal cutoff for TG/HDL-C. In the univariate analysis, the prognosis of the TG/HDL-C >0.9 group was markedly superior to that of TG/HDL-C ≤0.9 group (P<0.001). A multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that TG/HDL-C was independently correlated with a reduced risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.62; P<0.001). These results were confirmed in the 453 patients in the test cohort. A nomogram was constructed to predict 3-month case-fatality, and the c-indexes of predictive accuracy were 0.684 and 0.670 in the training and test cohorts, respectively (P<0.01). The serum TG/HDL-C ratio may be useful for predicting short-term mortality after AIS. PMID:29896437

The Short-term Prognostic Value of the Triglyceride-to-high-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Deng, Qi-Wen; Li, Shuo; Wang, Huan; Lei, Leix; Zhang, Han-Qing; Gu, Zheng-Tian; Xing, Fang-Lan; Yan, Fu-Ling

2018-06-01

The triglyceride (TG)-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (TG/HDL-C) is a simple approach to predicting unfavorable outcomes in cardiovascular disease. The influence of TG/HDL-C on acute ischemic stroke remains elusive. The purpose of this study was to investigate the precise effect of TG/HDL-C on 3-month mortality after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Patients with AIS were enrolled in the present study from 2011 to 2017. A total of 1459 participants from a single city in China were divided into retrospective training and prospective test cohorts. Medical records were collected periodically to determine the incidence of fatal events. All participants were followed for 3 months. Optimal cutoff values were determined using X-tile software to separate the training cohort patients into higher and lower survival groups based on their lipid levels. A survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 1459 patients with AIS (median age 68.5 years, 58.5% male) were analyzed. Univariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that TG/HDL-C was a significant prognostic factor for 3-month survival. X-tile identified 0.9 as an optimal cutoff for TG/HDL-C. In the univariate analysis, the prognosis of the TG/HDL-C >0.9 group was markedly superior to that of TG/HDL-C ≤0.9 group (P<0.001). A multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that TG/HDL-C was independently correlated with a reduced risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.62; P<0.001). These results were confirmed in the 453 patients in the test cohort. A nomogram was constructed to predict 3-month case-fatality, and the c-indexes of predictive accuracy were 0.684 and 0.670 in the training and test cohorts, respectively (P<0.01). The serum TG/HDL-C ratio may be useful for predicting short-term mortality after AIS.

Plasma and blood viscosity in the prediction of cardiovascular disease and mortality in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort Study.

PubMed

Peters, Sanne Ae; Woodward, Mark; Rumley, Ann; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh D; Lowe, Gordon DO

2017-01-01

Background There is increasing evidence that blood viscosity and its major determinants (haematocrit and plasma viscosity) are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality; however, their predictive value for CVD and mortality is not clear. Methods We prospectively assessed the added predictive value of plasma viscosity and whole blood viscosity and haematocrit in 3386 men and women aged 30-74 years participating in the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort study. Results Over a median follow-up of 17 years, 819 CVD events and 778 deaths were recorded. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for a 1 SD increase in plasma viscosity, adjusted for major CVD risk factors, were 1.12 (1.04-1.20) for CVD and 1.20 (1.12-1.29) for mortality. These remained significant after further adjustment for plasma fibrinogen: 1.09 (1.01-1.18) and 1.13 (1.04-1.22). The corresponding results for blood viscosity were 0.99 (0.90, 1.09) for CVD, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.22) for total mortality after adjustment for major CVD risk factors; and 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) and 1.06 (0.96, 1.18) after further adjustment for fibrinogen. Haematocrit showed similar associations to blood viscosity. When added to classical CVD risk factors, plasma viscosity improved the discrimination of CVD and mortality by 2.4% (0.7-4.4%) and 4.1% (2.0-6.5%). Conclusions Although plasma and blood viscosity may have a role in the pathogenesis of CVD and mortality, much of their association with CVD and mortality is due to the mutual effects of major CVD risk factors. However, plasma viscosity adds to the discrimination of CVD and mortality and might be considered for inclusion in multivariable risk scores.

Validation of prognostic scores for clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding.

PubMed

Motola-Kuba, Miguel; Escobedo-Arzate, Angélica; Tellez-Avila, Félix; Altamirano, José; Aguilar-Olivos, Nancy; González-Angulo, Alberto; Zamarripa-Dorsey, Felipe; Uribe, Misael; Chávez-Tapia, Norberto C

Background. The Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford, and AIMS65 are useful and validated scoring systems for predicting the outcomes of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. However, there are no validated evidence for using them to predict outcomes on variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of different nonvariceal bleeding scores with other liver-specific scoring systems in cirrhotic patients. A retrospective multicenter study that included 160 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. The AUROC's to predict in-hospital mortality, and rebleeding, were analyzed for each scoring system. Overall in-hospital mortality occurred in 13% and in-hospital rebleeding in 12% of patients. The systems with the best AUROC value for predicting mortality were MELD (0.828; 95% CI 0.748-0.909), and AIMS65 (0.817; 95% CI 0.724-0.909). The best score systems for predicting rebleeding were Glasgow-Blatchford (0.756; 95% CI 0.640- 0.827), and Rockall (0.691; 95% CI 0.580-0.802). In addition to liver-specific scores, the AIMS65 score is accurate for predicting in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Other scoring systems might be useful for predicting significant clinical outcomes in these patients.

Geotagged US Tweets as Predictors of County-Level Health Outcomes, 2015–2016

PubMed Central

McCullough, Matt; Meng, Hsien-wen; Paul, Debjyoti; Li, Dapeng; Kath, Suraj; Loomis, Geoffrey; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Wen, Ming; Smith, Ken R.; Li, Feifei

2017-01-01

Objectives. To leverage geotagged Twitter data to create national indicators of the social environment, with small-area indicators of prevalent sentiment and social modeling of health behaviors, and to test associations with county-level health outcomes, while controlling for demographic characteristics. Methods. We used Twitter’s streaming application programming interface to continuously collect a random 1% subset of publicly available geo-located tweets in the contiguous United States. We collected approximately 80 million geotagged tweets from 603 363 unique Twitter users in a 12-month period (April 2015–March 2016). Results. Across 3135 US counties, Twitter indicators of happiness, food, and physical activity were associated with lower premature mortality, obesity, and physical inactivity. Alcohol-use tweets predicted higher alcohol-use–related mortality. Conclusions. Social media represents a new type of real-time data that may enable public health officials to examine movement of norms, sentiment, and behaviors that may portend emerging issues or outbreaks—thus providing a way to intervene to prevent adverse health events and measure the impact of health interventions. PMID:28933925

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis: Infliximab or Cyclosporine as Rescue Therapy in Patients With Severe Ulcerative Colitis Refractory to Steroids.

PubMed

Narula, Neeraj; Marshall, John K; Colombel, Jean-Frederic; Leontiadis, Grigorios I; Williams, John G; Muqtadir, Zack; Reinisch, Walter

2016-04-01

Acute severe steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis (UC) carries a poor prognosis and requires optimal management. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess cyclosporine and infliximab (IFX) as rescue agents in patients with steroid-refractory UC. A literature search identified studies that investigated IFX and cyclosporine in steroid-refractory UC patients. The primary outcome was short-term response to treatment. Secondary outcomes included the rates of colectomy at 3 months and 12 months, adverse drug reactions, post-operative complications in those who received rescue therapy but underwent colectomy subsequently, and mortality. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. Overall, 16 studies with 1,473 participants were eligible for inclusion. Among three randomized controlled trials, no significant difference was seen with IFX compared with cyclosporine with regard to treatment response and 3- or 12-month colectomy. Among 13 non-randomized studies, IFX was associated with significantly higher rates of treatment response (OR 2.96 (95% CI 2.12-4.14, χ(2)=6.50, I(2)=0%)) and a lower 12-month colectomy rate (OR 0.42 (95% CI 0.22-0.83, χ(2)=30.94, I(2)=71%)), with no significant difference seen in the 3-month colectomy rate (OR 0.53 (95% CI 0.22-1.28, χ(2)=22.73, I(2)=69%)) compared with cyclosporine. There were no significant differences between IFX and cyclosporine in adverse drug-related events, post-operative complications, or mortality. In the management of steroid-refractory severe UC, no definitive difference between IFX and cyclosporine is demonstrated by randomized trials, but non-randomized studies suggest that IFX is associated with better treatment response and lower risk of colectomy at 12 months. Prospective studies comparing dose-optimized IFX with cyclosporine are needed.

In extremely preterm infants, do the Movement Assessment of Infants and the Alberta Infant Motor Scale predict 18-month outcomes using the Bayley-III?

PubMed

Lefebvre, Francine; Gagnon, Marie-Michèle; Luu, Thuy Mai; Lupien, Geneviève; Dorval, Véronique

2016-03-01

Extremely preterm infants are at high-risk for neurodevelopmental disabilities. The Movement Assessment of Infants (MAI) and the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) have been designed to predict outcome with modest accuracy with the Bayley-I or Bayley-II. To examine and compare the predictive validity of the MAI and AIMS in determining neurodevelopmental outcome with the Bayley-III. Retrospective cohort study of 160 infants born at ≤ 28 weeks gestation. At their corrected age, infants underwent the MAI at 4 months, the AIMS at 4 and 10-12 months, and the Bayley-III and neurological examination at 18 months. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated. Infants had a mean gestation of 26.3 ± 1.4 weeks and birth weight of 906 ± 207 g. A high-risk score (≥ 14) for adverse outcome was obtained by 57% of infants on the MAI. On the AIMS, a high-risk score (<5th percentile) was obtained by 56% at 4 months and 30% at 10-12 months. At 18 months, infants with low-risk scores on either the MAI or AIMS had higher cognitive, language, and motor Bayley-III scores than those with high-risk scores. They were less likely to have severe neurodevelopmental impairment. To predict Bayley-III scores <70, sensitivity and specificity were 91% and 49%, respectively, for the MAI and 78% and 48%, respectively, for the AIMS. Extremely preterm infants with low-risk MAI at 4 months or AIMS scores at 4 or 10-12 months had better outcomes than those with high-risk scores. However, both tests lack specificity to predict individual neurodevelopmental status at 18 months. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.

PubMed

Shahdoust, Maryam; Sadeghifar, Majid; Poorolajal, Jalal; Javanrooh, Niloofar; Amini, Payam

2015-01-01

Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates. The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively. The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.

Mortality and its risk factors in Malawian children admitted to hospital with clinical pneumonia, 2001–12: a retrospective observational study

PubMed Central

Lazzerini, Marzia; Seward, Nadine; Lufesi, Norman; Banda, Rosina; Sinyeka, Sophie; Masache, Gibson; Nambiar, Bejoy; Makwenda, Charles; Costello, Anthony; McCollum, Eric D; Colbourn, Tim

2017-01-01

Summary Background Few studies have reported long-term data on mortality rates for children admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Africa. We examined trends in case fatality rates for all-cause clinical pneumonia and its risk factors in Malawian children between 2001 and 2012. Methods Individual patient data for children (<5 years) with clinical pneumonia who were admitted to hospitals participating in Malawi’s Child Lung Health Programme between 2001 and 2012 were recorded prospectively on a standardised medical form. We analysed trends in pneumonia mortality and children’s clinical characteristics, and we estimated the association of risk factors with case fatality for children younger than 2 months, 2–11 months of age, and 12–59 months of age using separate multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models. Findings Between November, 2012, and May, 2013, we retrospectively collected all available hard copies of yellow forms from 40 of 41 participating hospitals. We examined 113 154 pneumonia cases, 104 932 (92.7%) of whom had mortality data and 6903 of whom died, and calculated an overall case fatality rate of 6.6% (95% CI 6.4–6.7). The case fatality rate significantly decreased between 2001 (15.2% [13.4–17.1]) and 2012 (4.5% [4.1–4.9]; ptrend<0.0001). Univariable analyses indicated that the decrease in case fatality rate was consistent across most subgroups. In multivariable analyses, the risk factors significantly associated with increased odds of mortality were female sex, young age, very severe pneumonia, clinically suspected Pneumocystis jirovecii infection, moderate or severe underweight, severe acute malnutrition, disease duration of more than 21 days, and referral from a health centre. Increasing year between 2001 and 2012 and increasing age (in months) were associated with reduced odds of mortality. Fast breathing was associated with reduced odds of mortality in children 2–11 months of age. However, case fatality rate in 2012 remained high for children with very severe pneumonia (11.8%), severe undernutrition (15.4%), severe acute malnutrition (34.8%), and symptom duration of more than 21 days (9.0%). Interpretation Pneumonia mortality and its risk factors have steadily improved in the past decade in Malawi; however, mortality remains high in specific subgroups. Improvements in hospital care may have reduced case fatality rates though a lack of sufficient data on quality of care indicators and the potential of socioeconomic and other improvements outside the hospital precludes adequate assessment of why case-fatality rates fell. Results from this study emphasise the importance of effective national systems for data collection. Further work combining this with data on trends in the incidence of pneumonia in the community are needed to estimate trends in the overall risk of mortality from pneumonia in children in Malawi. PMID:26718810

Mortality and Costs in Clostridium difficile Infection Among the Elderly in the United States.

PubMed

Shorr, Andrew F; Zilberberg, Marya D; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Yu, Holly

2016-11-01

OBJECTIVE To examine attributable mortality and costs of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in the Medicare population. DESIGN A population-based cohort study among US adults aged at least 65 years in the 2008-2010 Medicare 5% sample, with follow-up of 12 months. PATIENTS Incident CDI episode was defined by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code of 008.45 and no other occurrences within the preceding 12 months. To quantify the adjusted mortality and costs we developed a 1:1 propensity-matched sample of CDI and non-CDI patients. RESULTS Among 1,165,165 patients included, 6,838 (0.6%) had a CDI episode in 2009 (82.5% healthcare-associated). Patients with CDI were older (mean [SD] age, 81.0±8.0 vs 77.0±7.7 years, P<.001), were more likely to come from the Northeast (27.4% vs 18.6%, P<.001), and had a higher comorbidity burden (Charlson score, 4.6±3.3 vs 1.7±2.1, P<.001). Hospitalizations (63.2% vs 6.0%, P<.001) and antibiotics (33.9% vs 12.5%, P<.001) within the prior 90 days were more common in the group with CDI. In the propensity-adjusted analysis, CDI was associated with near doubling of both mortality (42.6% vs 23.4%, P<.001) and total healthcare costs ($64,807±$66,480 vs $38,128±$46,485, P<.001). CONCLUSIONS Among elderly patients, CDI is associated with an increase in adjusted mortality and healthcare costs following a CDI episode. Nationwide annually this equals 240,000 patients with CDI, 46,000 potential deaths, and more than $6 billion in costs. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-6.

Consequences of household air pollution on child survival: evidence from demographic and health surveys in 47 countries.

PubMed

Kleimola, Lauren B; Patel, Archana B; Borkar, Jitesh A; Hibberd, Patricia L

2015-01-01

Over one-third of the world's population is exposed to household air pollution (HAP) but the separate effects of cooking with solid fuel and kerosene on childhood mortality are unclear. To evaluate the effects of both solid fuels and kerosene on neonatal (0-28 days) and child (29 days-59 months) mortality. We used Demographic and Health Surveys from 47 countries and calculated adjusted relative risks (aRR) using Poisson regression models. The aRR of neonatal and child mortality in households exposed to solid fuels were 1.24 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.34) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.30), respectively, and the aRR for neonatal and child mortality in households exposed to kerosene were 1.34 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.52) and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), controlling for individual, household, and country-level predictors of mortality. Kerosene should not be classified as a clean fuel. Neonates are at risk for mortality from exposure to solid fuels and kerosene.

Consequences of household air pollution on child survival: evidence from demographic and health surveys in 47 countries

PubMed Central

Patel, Archana B.; Borkar, Jitesh A.; Hibberd, Patricia L.

2015-01-01

Background: Over one-third of the world’s population is exposed to household air pollution (HAP) but the separate effects of cooking with solid fuel and kerosene on childhood mortality are unclear. Objectives: To evaluate the effects of both solid fuels and kerosene on neonatal (0-28 days) and child (29 days-59 months) mortality. Methods: We used Demographic and Health Surveys from 47 countries and calculated adjusted relative risks (aRR) using Poisson regression models. Results: The aRR of neonatal and child mortality in households exposed to solid fuels were 1.24 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.34) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.30), respectively, and the aRR for neonatal and child mortality in households exposed to kerosene were 1.34 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.52) and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), controlling for individual, household, and country-level predictors of mortality. Conclusions: Kerosene should not be classified as a clean fuel. Neonates are at risk for mortality from exposure to solid fuels and kerosene. PMID:25843087

Assessment of the Possible Association of Air Pollutants PM10, O3, NO2 With an Increase in Cardiovascular, Respiratory, and Diabetes Mortality in Panama City

PubMed Central

Zúñiga, Julio; Tarajia, Musharaf; Herrera, Víctor; Urriola, Wilfredo; Gómez, Beatriz; Motta, Jorge

2016-01-01

Abstract In recent years, Panama has experienced a marked economic growth, and this, in turn, has been associated with rapid urban development and degradation of air quality. This study is the first evaluation done in Panama on the association between air pollution and mortality. Our objective was to assess the possible association between monthly levels of PM10, O3, and NO2, and cardiovascular, respiratory, and diabetes mortality, as well as the seasonal variation of mortality in Panama City, Panama. The study was conducted in Panama City, using air pollution data from January 2003 to December 2013. We utilized a Poisson regression model based on generalized linear models, to evaluate the association between PM10, NO2, and O3 exposure and mortality from diabetes, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. The sample size for PM10, NO2, and O2 was 132, 132, and 108 monthly averages, respectively. We found that levels of PM10, O3, and NO2 were associated with increases in cardiovascular, respiratory, and diabetes mortality. For PM10 levels ≥ 40 μg/m3, we found an increase in cardiovascular mortality of 9.7% (CI 5.8–13.6%), and an increase of 12.6% (CI 0.2–24.2%) in respiratory mortality. For O3 levels ≥ 20 μg/m3 we found an increase of 32.4% (IC 14.6–52.9) in respiratory mortality, after a 2-month lag period following exposure in the 65 to <74 year-old age group. For NO2 levels ≥20 μg/m3 we found an increase in respiratory mortality of 11.2% (IC 1.9–21.3), after a 2-month lag period following exposure among those aged between 65 and <74 years. There could be an association between the air pollution in Panama City and an increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and diabetes mortality. This study confirms the urgent need to improve the measurement frequency of air pollutants in Panama. PMID:26765444

Assessment of the Possible Association of Air Pollutants PM10, O3, NO2 With an Increase in Cardiovascular, Respiratory, and Diabetes Mortality in Panama City: A 2003 to 2013 Data Analysis.

PubMed

Zúñiga, Julio; Tarajia, Musharaf; Herrera, Víctor; Urriola, Wilfredo; Gómez, Beatriz; Motta, Jorge

2016-01-01

In recent years, Panama has experienced a marked economic growth, and this, in turn, has been associated with rapid urban development and degradation of air quality. This study is the first evaluation done in Panama on the association between air pollution and mortality. Our objective was to assess the possible association between monthly levels of PM10, O3, and NO2, and cardiovascular, respiratory, and diabetes mortality, as well as the seasonal variation of mortality in Panama City, Panama.The study was conducted in Panama City, using air pollution data from January 2003 to December 2013. We utilized a Poisson regression model based on generalized linear models, to evaluate the association between PM10, NO2, and O3 exposure and mortality from diabetes, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. The sample size for PM10, NO2, and O2 was 132, 132, and 108 monthly averages, respectively.We found that levels of PM10, O3, and NO2 were associated with increases in cardiovascular, respiratory, and diabetes mortality. For PM10 levels ≥ 40 μg/m3, we found an increase in cardiovascular mortality of 9.7% (CI 5.8-13.6%), and an increase of 12.6% (CI 0.2-24.2%) in respiratory mortality. For O3 levels ≥ 20 μg/m3 we found an increase of 32.4% (IC 14.6-52.9) in respiratory mortality, after a 2-month lag period following exposure in the 65 to <74 year-old age group. For NO2 levels ≥20 μg/m3 we found an increase in respiratory mortality of 11.2% (IC 1.9-21.3), after a 2-month lag period following exposure among those aged between 65 and <74 years.There could be an association between the air pollution in Panama City and an increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and diabetes mortality. This study confirms the urgent need to improve the measurement frequency of air pollutants in Panama.

Usefulness of the comprehensive geriatric assessment in older patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a two-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Pilotto, Alberto; Ferrucci, Luigi; Scarcelli, Carlo; Niro, Valeria; Di Mario, Francesco; Seripa, Davide; Andriulli, Angelo; Leandro, Gioacchino; Franceschi, Marilisa

2007-01-01

The potential usefulness of standardized comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in evaluating treatment and follow-up of older patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding is unknown. To evaluate the usefulness of the CGA as a 2-year mortality multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) in older patients hospitalized for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients aged > or =65 years consecutively hospitalized for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding were included. Diagnosis of bleeding was based on clinical and endoscopic features. All patients underwent a CGA that included six standardized scales, i.e., Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ), Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Exton-Smith Score (ESS) and Comorbity Index Rating Scale (CIRS), as well as information on medication history and cohabitation, for a total of 63 items. A MPI was calculated from the integrated total scores and expressed as MPI 1 = low risk, MPI 2 = moderate risk, and MPI 3 = severe risk. The predictive value of the MPI for mortality over a 24-month follow-up was calculated. 36 elderly patients (M 16/F 20, mean age 82.8 +/- 7.9 years, range 70-101 years) were included in the study. A significant difference in mean age was observed between males and females (M 80.1 +/- 4.8 vs. F 84.9 +/- 9.3 years; p < 0.05). The causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding were duodenal ulcer in 38.8%, gastric ulcer in 22.2%, and erosive gastritis in 16.6% of the patients, while 16.6% had gastrointestinal bleeding from unknown origin. The overall 2-year mortality rate was 30.5%. 18 patients (50%) were classified as having a low-risk MPI (mean value 0.18 +/- 0.09), 12 (33.3%) as having a moderate-risk MPI (mean value 0.48 +/- 0.08) and 6 (16.6%) as having a severe-risk MPI (mean value 0.83 +/- 0.06). Higher MPI grades were significantly associated with higher mortality (grade 1 = 12.5%, grade 2 = 41.6%, grade 3 = 83.3%; p = 0.001). Adjusting for age and sex, the prognostic efficacy of MPI for mortality was confirmed and highly significant (odds ratio 10.47, 95% CI 2.04-53.6). CGA is a useful tool for calculating a MPI that significantly predicts the risk of 2-year mortality in older patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Copyright 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics and level of care associated with lost to follow-up and mortality in adult patients on first-line ART in Nigerian hospitals.

PubMed

Odafe, Solomon; Idoko, Ochanya; Badru, Titilope; Aiyenigba, Bolatito; Suzuki, Chiho; Khamofu, Hadiza; Onyekwena, Obinna; Okechukwu, Emeka; Torpey, Kwasi; Chabikuli, Otto N

2012-09-18

Clinical outcome is an important determinant of programme success. This study aims to evaluate patients' baseline characteristics as well as level of care associated with lost to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality of patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Retrospective cohort study using routine service data of adult patients initiated on ART in 2007 in 10 selected hospitals in Nigeria. We captured data using an electronic medical record system and analyzed using Stata. Outcome measures were probability of being alive and retained in care at 12, 24 and 36 months on ART. Potential predictors associated with time to mortality and time to LTFU were assessed using competing risks regression models. After 12 months on therapy, 85% of patients were alive and on ART. Survival decreased to 81.2% and 76.1% at 24 and 36 months, respectively. Median CD4 count for patients at ART start, 12, 18 and 24 months were 152 (interquartile range, IQR: 75 to 242), 312 (IQR: 194 to 450), 344 (IQR: 227 to 501) and 372 (IQR: 246 to 517) cells/µl, respectively. Competing risk regression showed that patients' baseline characteristics significantly associated with LTFU were male (adjusted sub-hazard ratio, sHR = 1.24 [95% CI: 1.08 to 1.42]), ambulatory functional status (adjusted sHR = 1.25 [95% CI: 1.01 to 1.54]), World Health Organization (WHO) clinical Stage II (adjusted sHR = 1.31 [95% CI: 1.08 to 1.59]) and care in a secondary site (adjusted sHR = 0.76 [95% CI: 0.66 to 0.87]). Those associated with mortality include CD4 count < 50 cells/µl (adjusted sHR = 2.84 [95% CI: 1.20 to 6.71]), WHO clinical Stage III (adjusted sHR = 2.67 [95% CI: 1.26 to 5.65]) and Stage IV (adjusted sHR = 5.04 [95% CI: 1.93 to 13.16]) and care in a secondary site (adjusted sHR = 2.21 [95% CI: 1.30 to 3.77]). Mortality was associated with advanced HIV disease and care in secondary facilities. Earlier initiation of therapy and strengthening systems in secondary level facilities may improve retention and ultimately contribute to better clinical outcomes.

Patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics and level of care associated with lost to follow-up and mortality in adult patients on first-line ART in Nigerian hospitals

PubMed Central

Odafe, Solomon; Idoko, Ochanya; Badru, Titilope; Aiyenigba, Bolatito; Suzuki, Chiho; Khamofu, Hadiza; Onyekwena, Obinna; Okechukwu, Emeka; Torpey, Kwasi; Chabikuli, Otto N

2012-01-01

Introduction Clinical outcome is an important determinant of programme success. This study aims to evaluate patients’ baseline characteristics as well as level of care associated with lost to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality of patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Methods Retrospective cohort study using routine service data of adult patients initiated on ART in 2007 in 10 selected hospitals in Nigeria. We captured data using an electronic medical record system and analyzed using Stata. Outcome measures were probability of being alive and retained in care at 12, 24 and 36 months on ART. Potential predictors associated with time to mortality and time to LTFU were assessed using competing risks regression models. Results After 12 months on therapy, 85% of patients were alive and on ART. Survival decreased to 81.2% and 76.1% at 24 and 36 months, respectively. Median CD4 count for patients at ART start, 12, 18 and 24 months were 152 (interquartile range, IQR: 75 to 242), 312 (IQR: 194 to 450), 344 (IQR: 227 to 501) and 372 (IQR: 246 to 517) cells/µl, respectively. Competing risk regression showed that patients’ baseline characteristics significantly associated with LTFU were male (adjusted sub-hazard ratio, sHR=1.24 [95% CI: 1.08 to 1.42]), ambulatory functional status (adjusted sHR=1.25 [95% CI: 1.01 to 1.54]), World Health Organization (WHO) clinical Stage II (adjusted sHR=1.31 [95% CI: 1.08 to 1.59]) and care in a secondary site (adjusted sHR=0.76 [95% CI: 0.66 to 0.87]). Those associated with mortality include CD4 count <50 cells/µl (adjusted sHR=2.84 [95% CI: 1.20 to 6.71]), WHO clinical Stage III (adjusted sHR=2.67 [95% CI: 1.26 to 5.65]) and Stage IV (adjusted sHR=5.04 [95% CI: 1.93 to 13.16]) and care in a secondary site (adjusted sHR=2.21 [95% CI: 1.30 to 3.77]). Conclusions Mortality was associated with advanced HIV disease and care in secondary facilities. Earlier initiation of therapy and strengthening systems in secondary level facilities may improve retention and ultimately contribute to better clinical outcomes. PMID:23010378

Beyond comorbidity: expanding the definition and measurement of complexity among older adults using administrative claims data.

PubMed

Chrischilles, Elizabeth; Schneider, Kathleen; Wilwert, June; Lessman, Gregory; O'Donnell, Brian; Gryzlak, Brian; Wright, Kara; Wallace, Robert

2014-03-01

Studies of patients with multiple chronic conditions using claims data are often missing important determinants of treatments and outcomes, such as function status and disease severity. We sought to identify and evaluate a class of function-related indicators (FRIs) from administrative claims data. The study cohort comprised US Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with Parts A and B fee-for-service and Part D coverage, with a hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction during 2007. Measures during the year before admission included the FRIs, demographics, conventional comorbidity measures, and prior hospitalization. Outcomes were receipt of cardiac catheterization during the index hospitalization and 12-month mortality. Model development used a random sample (n=72,056) with an equal sample for validation. In addition to prior cardiovascular conditions (85%), 40% had ≥1 comorbid condition, 30% were hospitalized in the prior 6 months, and 65% had ≥1 FRI [eg, delirium/dementia (22.7%), depression (16.7%), mobility limitation (16.1%), and chronic skin ulcers (12.6%)]. Including the FRIs improved mortality and cardiac catheterization prediction models (C-statistics 0.71 and 0.77, respectively). Patients with more cardiovascular conditions received less cardiac catheterization [minimally adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.82-0.83], as did patients with more comorbidities (minimally adjusted OR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.69-0.71), but this was attenuated by adjusting for functional status (fully adjusted OR for cardiovascular conditions 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.96 and for comorbid conditions 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.95). Claims data studies that include indicators of potentially diminished patient functional status better capture heterogeneity of patients with multiple chronic conditions.

Cardiac surgery fast-track treatment in a postanesthetic care unit: six-month results of the Leipzig fast-track concept.

PubMed

Ender, Joerg; Borger, Michael Andrew; Scholz, Markus; Funkat, Anne-Kathrin; Anwar, Nadeem; Sommer, Marcus; Mohr, Friedrich Wilhelm; Fassl, Jens

2008-07-01

The authors compared the safety and efficacy of a newly developed fast-track concept at their center, including implementation of a direct admission postanesthetic care unit, to standard perioperative management. All fast-track patients treated within the first 6 months of implementation of our direct admission postanesthetic care unit were matched via propensity scores and compared with a historical control group of patients who underwent cardiac surgery prior to fast-track implementation. A total of 421 fast-track patients were matched successfully to 421 control patients. The two groups of patients had a similar age (64 +/- 13 vs. 64 +/- 12 yr for fast-track vs. control, P = 0.45) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation-predicted risk of mortality (4.8 +/- 6.1% vs. 4.6 +/- 5.1%, P = 0.97). Fast-track patients had significantly shorter times to extubation (75 min [45-110] vs. 900 min [600-1140]), as well as shorter lengths of stay in the postanesthetic or intensive care unit (4 h [3.0-5] vs. 20 h [16-25]), intermediate care unit (21 h [17-39] vs. 26 h [19-49]), and hospital (10 days [8-12] vs. 11 days [9-14]) (expressed as median and interquartile range, all P < 0.01). Fast-track patients also had a lower risk of postoperative low cardiac output syndrome (0.5% vs. 2.9%, P < 0.05) and mortality (0.5% vs. 3.3%, P < 0.01). The Leipzig fast-track protocol is a safe and effective method to manage cardiac surgery patients after a variety of operations.

Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

Prognostic value of dynamic electrocardiographic T wave changes in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Sarak, Bradley; Goodman, Shaun G; Yan, Raymond T; Tan, Mary K; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Tan, Nigel S; Fox, Keith A A; Udell, Jacob A; Brieger, David; Welsh, Robert C; Gale, Chris P; Yan, Andrew T

2016-09-01

To assess the relationship between the evolution of T wave inversion (TWI) on the 24-48 h postadmission ECG and the patient characteristics, management and clinical outcomes among those with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). We evaluated admission and 24-48 h follow-up ECGs of 7201 patients with NSTE-ACS from the prospective, multicentre Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Canadian ACS Registry I. We performed multivariable analyses to determine the association between new TWI (on follow-up ECG only), resolved TWI (on admission ECG only) and persistent TWI (on both admission and follow-up ECG) and inhospital and cumulative 6-month all-cause mortality. Patients with TWI were older, more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors, higher Killip class and GRACE risk scores. After adjustment for known prognostic factors, compared with patients presenting without TWI, new TWI was associated with significantly lower inhospital mortality (OR=0.60, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.95, p=0.029), whereas resolved (OR=1.06, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.75, p=0.81) and persistent (OR=0.73, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.11, p=0.14) TWI did not predict inhospital mortality. No TWI pattern independently predicted inhospital adverse cardiovascular events or cumulative 6-month mortality. In contrast, ST depression on the admission and follow-up ECG were independent predictors of inhospital and 6-month mortality. Across the spectrum of NSTE-ACS, TWI within 48 h of presentation was associated with high-risk clinical features, but its presence or dynamic change did not provide additional prognostic value beyond other established clinical predictors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Laparoscopic Lavage for Perforated Diverticulitis With Purulent Peritonitis: A Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Thornell, Anders; Angenete, Eva; Bisgaard, Thue; Bock, David; Burcharth, Jakob; Heath, Jane; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian; Rosenberg, Jacob; Stilling, Nikolaj; Skullman, Stefan; Haglind, Eva

2016-02-02

Perforated diverticulitis with purulent peritonitis has traditionally been treated with open colon resection and stoma formation with risk for reoperations, morbidity, and mortality. Laparoscopic lavage alone has been suggested as definitive treatment. To compare laparoscopic lavage with open colon resection and colostomy (Hartmann procedure) for perforated diverticulitis with purulent peritonitis. Randomized, controlled, multicenter, open-label trial. (ISRCTN registry number: ISRCTN82208287). 9 hospitals in Sweden and Denmark. Patients who have confirmed Hinchey grade III perforated diverticulitis with purulent peritonitis at diagnostic laparoscopy. Randomization between laparoscopic lavage and the Hartmann procedure. Primary outcome was the percentage of patients having 1 or more reoperations within 12 months. Key secondary outcomes were number of reoperations, hospital readmissions, total length of hospital stay during 12 months, and adverse events. A total of 43 and 40 patients were randomly assigned to laparoscopic lavage and the Hartmann procedure with a median (first, third quartiles) follow-up of 372 days (336, 394) and 378 days (226, 396), respectively. Fewer patients in the laparoscopic group (12 of 43; 27.9%) than in the Hartmann group (25 of 40; 62.5%) had at least 1 reoperation within 12 months (relative risk reduction, 59%; relative risk, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.23 to 0.72]; P = 0.004). Mortality and severe adverse events did not differ between groups. Total length of hospital stay (days) within 12 months was shorter for the laparoscopic group than the Hartmann group, with a reduction of 35% (relative risk, 0.65 [CI, 0.45 to 0.94]; P = 0.047). After 12 months, 3 patients in the laparoscopic group and 11 in the Hartmann group had a stoma. Not all patients presenting with suspected diverticulitis were enrolled. Laparoscopic lavage reduced the need for reoperations, had a similar safety profile to the Hartmann procedure, and may be an appropriate treatment of choice for acute perforated diverticulitis with purulent peritonitis. ALF; Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg.

Decompressive Surgery for the Treatment of Malignant Infarction of the Middle Cerebral Artery (DESTINY): a randomized, controlled trial.

PubMed

Jüttler, Eric; Schwab, Stefan; Schmiedek, Peter; Unterberg, Andreas; Hennerici, Michael; Woitzik, Johannes; Witte, Steffen; Jenetzky, Ekkehart; Hacke, Werner

2007-09-01

Decompressive surgery (hemicraniectomy) for life-threatening massive cerebral infarction represents a controversial issue in neurocritical care medicine. We report here the 30-day mortality and 6- and 12-month functional outcomes from the DESTINY trial. DESTINY (ISRCTN01258591) is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled, clinical trial based on a sequential design that used mortality after 30 days as the first end point. When this end point was reached, patient enrollment was interrupted as per protocol until recalculation of the projected sample size was performed on the basis of the 6-month outcome (primary end point=modified Rankin Scale score, dichotomized to 0 to 3 versus 4 to 6). All analyses were based on intention to treat. A statistically significant reduction in mortality was reached after 32 patients had been included: 15 of 17 (88%) patients randomized to hemicraniectomy versus 7 of 15 (47%) patients randomized to conservative therapy survived after 30 days (P=0.02). After 6 and 12 months, 47% of patients in the surgical arm versus 27% of patients in the conservative treatment arm had a modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 3 (P=0.23). DESTINY showed that hemicraniectomy reduces mortality in large hemispheric stroke. With 32 patients included, the primary end point failed to demonstrate statistical superiority of hemicraniectomy, and the projected sample size was calculated to 188 patients. Despite this failure to meet the primary end point, the steering committee decided to terminate the trial in light of the results of the joint analysis of the 3 European hemicraniectomy trials.

Prognostic durability of liver fibrosis tests and improvement in predictive performance for mortality by combining tests.

PubMed

Bertrais, Sandrine; Boursier, Jérôme; Ducancelle, Alexandra; Oberti, Frédéric; Fouchard-Hubert, Isabelle; Moal, Valérie; Calès, Paul

2017-06-01

There is currently no recommended time interval between noninvasive fibrosis measurements for monitoring chronic liver diseases. We determined how long a single liver fibrosis evaluation may accurately predict mortality, and assessed whether combining tests improves prognostic performance. We included 1559 patients with chronic liver disease and available baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4, Hepascore, and FibroMeter V2G . Median follow-up was 2.8 years during which 262 (16.8%) patients died, with 115 liver-related deaths. All fibrosis tests were able to predict mortality, although APRI (and FIB-4 for liver-related mortality) showed lower overall discriminative ability than the other tests (differences in Harrell's C-index: P < 0.050). According to time-dependent AUROCs, the time period with optimal predictive performance was 2-3 years in patients with no/mild fibrosis, 1 year in patients with significant fibrosis, and <6 months in cirrhotic patients even in those with a model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score <15. Patients were then randomly split in training/testing sets. In the training set, blood tests and LSM were independent predictors of all-cause mortality. The best-fit multivariate model included age, sex, LSM, and FibroMeter V2G with C-index = 0.834 (95% confidence interval, 0.803-0.862). The prognostic model for liver-related mortality included the same covariates with C-index = 0.868 (0.831-0.902). In the testing set, the multivariate models had higher prognostic accuracy than FibroMeter V2G or LSM alone for all-cause mortality and FibroMeter V2G alone for liver-related mortality. The prognostic durability of a single baseline fibrosis evaluation depends on the liver fibrosis level. Combining LSM with a blood fibrosis test improves mortality risk assessment. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Guida, Pietro; Passantino, Andrea; Raimondo, Rosa; Guida, Valentina; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Canova, Paolo; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Frigerio, Maria; Lagioia, Rocco; Oliva, Fabrizio

2014-04-01

The acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/NT-proBNP) score is a validated risk scoring system that predicts mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients with a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). We sought to assess discrimination and calibration of the score when applied to patients with advanced decompensated heart failure (AHF). We studied 445 patients hospitalized for AHF, defined by the presence of severe symptoms of worsening HF at admission, severely depressed LVEF, and the need for intravenous diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. The primary outcome was cumulative (in-hospital and post-discharge) mortality and post-discharge 1-year mortality. Separate analyses were performed for patients aged ≤ 70 years. A Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) was calculated for each patient discharged alive. During follow-up, 144 patients (32.4%) died, and 69 (15.5%) underwent heart transplantation (HT) or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. After accounting for the competing events (VAD/HT), the ADHF/NT-proBNP score's C-statistic for cumulative mortality was 0.738 in the overall cohort and 0.771 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. The C-statistic for post-discharge mortality was 0.741 and 0.751, respectively. Adding prior (≤6 months) hospitalizations for HF to the score increased the C-statistic for post-discharge mortality to 0.759 in the overall cohort and to 0.774 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. Predicted and observed mortality rates by quartiles of score were highly correlated. The SHFS demonstrated adequate discrimination but underestimated the risk. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk calculator is available at http://www.fsm.it/fsm/file/NTproBNPscore.zip. Our data suggest that the ADHF/NT-proBNP score may efficiently predict mortality in patients hospitalized with AHF. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality after Inpatient Treatment for Severe Pneumonia in Children: a Cohort Study.

PubMed

Ngari, Moses M; Fegan, Greg; Mwangome, Martha K; Ngama, Mwanajuma J; Mturi, Neema; Scott, John Anthony Gerard; Bauni, Evasius; Nokes, David James; Berkley, James A

2017-05-01

Although pneumonia is a leading cause of inpatient mortality, deaths may also occur after discharge from hospital. However, prior studies have been small, in selected groups or did not fully evaluate risk factors, particularly malnutrition and HIV. We determined 1-year post-discharge mortality and risk factors among children diagnosed with severe pneumonia. A cohort study of children aged 1-59 months admitted to Kilifi County Hospital with severe pneumonia (2007-12). The primary outcome was death <1 year after discharge, determined through Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) quarterly census rounds. Of 4184 children (median age 9 months) admitted with severe pneumonia, 1041 (25%) had severe acute malnutrition (SAM), 267 (6.4%) had a positive HIV antibody test, and 364 (8.7%) died in hospital. After discharge, 2279 KHDSS-resident children were followed up; 70 (3.1%) died during 2163 child-years: 32 (95% confidence interval (CI) 26, 41) deaths per 1000 child years. Post-discharge mortality was greater after admission for severe pneumonia than for other diagnoses, hazard ratio 2.5 (95% CI 1.2, 5.3). Malnutrition, HIV status, age and prolonged hospitalisation, but not signs of pneumonia severity, were associated with post-discharge mortality. Fifty-two per cent (95% CI 37%, 63%) of post-discharge deaths were attributable to low mid-upper arm circumference and 11% (95% CI 3.3%, 18%) to a positive HIV test. Admission with severe pneumonia is an important marker of vulnerability. Risk stratification and better understanding of the mechanisms underlying post-discharge mortality, especially for undernourished children, are needed to reduce mortality after treatment for pneumonia. © 2017 The Authors. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk factors for kid mortality in West African Dwarf goats under an intensive management system in Ghana.

PubMed

Turkson, P K; Antiri, Y K; Baffuor-Awuah, O

2004-05-01

Breeding records from 1997 to 2000 for West African Dwarf goats kept under an intensive management system on the National Breeding Station at Kintampo in Ghana were analysed for the effect on mortality of sex, season and type of birth, and birth weight. The pre-weaning and post-weaning mortalities were 10% (n = 390) and 23.1% (n = 351), respectively, while the overall mortality from birth up to 12 months of age was 30.8% (n = 390). The post-weaning period recorded significantly higher proportions of deaths in males, females, single-born and twins, during the rainy and dry seasons, and for kids with low or high birth weight, compared to the pre-weaning period. There was significantly higher mortality in male kids than in female kids. The odds and risks of death for male kids were about twice those for females at post-weaning and up to 1 year of age. At pre-weaning and up to 1 year of age, a higher proportion of the dead were twins. Twins had approximately 2.5 the risk of death at pre-weaning, compared to singles. Also, kids born in the rainy season had significantly higher mortality than those born in the dry season. Kids that died by the time of weaning were significantly lighter in weight at birth than those that survived. Male kids had significantly higher mean weights at birth and at weaning, but not at 12 months of age. The significance of these findings is discussed.

Quality of Care of Hospitalized Infective Endocarditis Patients: Report from a Tertiary Medical Center.

PubMed

Kashef, Mohammad Amin; Friderici, Jennifer; Hernandez-Montfort, Jaime; Atreya, Auras R; Lindenauer, Peter; Lagu, Tara

2017-06-01

There have been no recent studies describing the management and outcomes of patients with infective endocarditis (IE). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to a tertiary medical center from 2007 to 2011 with a Duke criteria consistent discharge diagnosis of IE. We examined concordance with guideline recommendations. Outcomes included embolic events, inhospital and 1-year mortality, length of stay (LOS) and cardiac surgery. We used descriptive statistics to describe the cohort and Fisher exact and unpaired t tests to compare native valve endocarditis (NVE) with prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). Of 170 patients, definite IE was present in 135 (79.4%) and possible IE in 35 (20.6%); 74.7% had NVE, and 25.3% had PVE. Mean ± standard deviation age was 60.0 ± 17.9 years. Comparing PVE to NVE, patients with PVE were less likely to have embolic events (14.0% vs. 32.3%; P = 0.03), had shorter LOS (median 12.0 days vs. 14.0 days; P = 0.047), but they did not show a statistically significant difference in inhospital mortality (20.9% vs. 12.6%; P = 0.21). Of 170, patients 27.6% (n = 47) underwent valve surgery. Most patients received timely blood cultures and antibiotics. Guideline-recommended consults were underused, with 86.5%, 54.1%, and 47.1% of patients receiving infectious disease, cardiac surgery, and cardiology consultation, respectively. As the number of consultations increased (from 0 to 3), we observed a nonsignificant trend toward reduction in 6-month readmission and 12-month mortality. IE remains a disease with significant morbidity and mortality. There are gaps in the care of IE patients, most notably underuse of specialty consultation. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2017;12:414-420. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

Prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care unit: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Weil, Delphine; Levesque, Eric; McPhail, Marc; Cavallazzi, Rodrigo; Theocharidou, Eleni; Cholongitas, Evangelos; Galbois, Arnaud; Pan, Heng Chih; Karvellas, Constantine J; Sauneuf, Bertrand; Robert, René; Fichet, Jérome; Piton, Gaël; Thevenot, Thierry; Capellier, Gilles; Di Martino, Vincent

2017-12-01

The best predictors of short- and medium-term mortality of cirrhotic patients receiving intensive care support are unknown. We conducted meta-analyses from 13 studies (2523 cirrhotics) after selection of original articles and response to a standardized questionnaire by the corresponding authors. End-points were in-ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month mortality in ICU survivors. A total of 301 pooled analyses, including 95 analyses restricted to 6-month mortality among ICU survivors, were conducted considering 249 variables (including reason for admission, organ replacement therapy, and composite prognostic scores). In-ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month mortality was 42.7, 54.1, and 75.1%, respectively. Forty-eight patients (3.8%) underwent liver transplantation during follow-up. In-ICU mortality was lower in patients admitted for variceal bleeding (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.36-0.59; p < 0.001) and higher in patients with SOFA > 19 at baseline (OR 8.54; 95% CI 2.09-34.91; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.93). High SOFA no longer predicted mortality at 6 months in ICU survivors. Twelve variables related to infection were predictors of in-ICU mortality, including SIRS (OR 2.44; 95% CI 1.64-3.65; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.57), pneumonia (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.47-3.22; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.69), sepsis-associated refractory oliguria (OR 10.61; 95% CI 4.07-27.63; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.76), and fungal infection (OR 4.38; 95% CI 1.11-17.24; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.85). Among therapeutics, only dopamine (OR 5.57; 95% CI 3.02-10.27; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.68), dobutamine (OR 8.92; 95% CI 3.32-23.96; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.86), epinephrine (OR 5.03; 95% CI 2.68-9.42; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.77), and MARS (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.22-3.53; p = 0.007; PPV = 0.58) were associated with in-ICU mortality without heterogeneity. In ICU survivors, eight markers of liver and renal failure predicted 6-month mortality, including Child-Pugh stage C (OR 2.43; 95% CI 1.44-4.10; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.57), baseline MELD > 26 (OR 3.97; 95% CI 1.92-8.22; p < 0.0001; PPV = 0.75), and hepatorenal syndrome (OR 4.67; 95% CI 1.24-17.64; p = 0.022; PPV = 0.88). Prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU is poor since only a minority undergo liver transplant. The prognostic performance of general ICU scores decreases over time, unlike the Child-Pugh and MELD scores, even recorded in the context of organ failure. Infection-related parameters had a short-term impact, whereas liver and renal failure had a sustained impact on mortality.

Decoy receptor 3, a novel inflammatory marker, and mortality in hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Hung, Szu-Chun; Hsu, Ta-Wei; Lin, Yao-Ping; Tarng, Der-Cherng

2012-08-01

Inflammation is closely associated with cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of mortality in patients with CKD. Serum decoy receptor 3 (DcR3) is a member of the TNF receptor superfamily. CKD patients have higher levels of DcR3 than the general population, but whether DcR3 predicts mortality in CKD patients on hemodialysis has not been explored. DcR3 levels were measured in 316 prevalent hemodialysis patients who were followed up from November 1, 2004, to June 30, 2009, for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The baseline DcR3 concentration showed a strong positive correlation with inflammatory markers including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, IL-6, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1). During a follow-up period of 54 months, 90 patients died (34 cardiovascular deaths). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed higher cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with higher DcR3 levels. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of the highest versus lowest tertiles of DcR3 were 2.8 (1.1-7.3; P for trend=0.04) for cardiovascular mortality and 2.1 (1.1-3.7; P for trend=0.02) for all-cause mortality, respectively. Based on the minimal increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.79 to 0.80, the addition of DcR3 to established risk factors including VCAM-1, albumin, and IL-6 does not improve the prediction of mortality. Higher DcR3 levels strongly correlate with inflammation and independently predict cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in CKD patients on hemodialysis.

Risk factors for persistent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 1 and 2: managed by watchful waiting.

PubMed

Ho, Gloria Y F; Einstein, Mark H; Romney, Seymour L; Kadish, Anna S; Abadi, Maria; Mikhail, Magdy; Basu, Jayasri; Thysen, Benjamin; Reimers, Laura; Palan, Prabhudas R; Trim, Shelly; Soroudi, Nafisseh; Burk, Robert D

2011-10-01

: This study examines risk factors for persistent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and examines whether human papillomavirus (HPV) testing predicts persistent lesions. : Women with histologically diagnosed CIN 1 or CIN 2 (n = 206) were followed up every 3 months without treatment. Human papillomavirus genotyping, plasma levels of ascorbic acid, and red blood cell folate levels were obtained. Cervical biopsy at 12 months determined the presence of CIN. Relative risk (RR) was estimated by log-linked binomial regression models. : At 12 months, 70% of CIN 1 versus 54% of CIN 2 lesions spontaneously regressed (p < .001). Levels of folate or ascorbic acid were not associated with persistent CIN at 12 months. Compared with HPV-negative women, those with multiple HPV types (RRs ranged from 1.68 to 2.17 at each follow-up visit) or high-risk types (RRs range = 1.74-2.09) were at increased risk for persistent CIN; women with HPV-16/18 had the highest risk (RRs range = 1.91-2.21). Persistent infection with a high-risk type was also associated with persistent CIN (RRs range = 1.50-2.35). Typing for high-risk HPVs at 6 months only had a sensitivity of 46% in predicting persistence of any lesions at 12 months. : Spontaneous regression of CIN 1 and 2 occurs frequently within 12 months. Human papillomavirus infection is the major risk factor for persistent CIN. However, HPV testing cannot reliably predict persistence of any lesion.

Machine-learning prediction of cancer survival: a retrospective study using electronic administrative records and a cancer registry

PubMed Central

Gupta, Sunil; Tran, Truyen; Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Kennedy, Richard Lee; Broad, Adam; Campbell, David; Kipp, David; Singh, Madhu; Khasraw, Mustafa; Matheson, Leigh; Ashley, David M; Venkatesh, Svetha

2014-01-01

Objectives Using the prediction of cancer outcome as a model, we have tested the hypothesis that through analysing routinely collected digital data contained in an electronic administrative record (EAR), using machine-learning techniques, we could enhance conventional methods in predicting clinical outcomes. Setting A regional cancer centre in Australia. Participants Disease-specific data from a purpose-built cancer registry (Evaluation of Cancer Outcomes (ECO)) from 869 patients were used to predict survival at 6, 12 and 24 months. The model was validated with data from a further 94 patients, and results compared to the assessment of five specialist oncologists. Machine-learning prediction using ECO data was compared with that using EAR and a model combining ECO and EAR data. Primary and secondary outcome measures Survival prediction accuracy in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The ECO model yielded AUCs of 0.87 (95% CI 0.848 to 0.890) at 6 months, 0.796 (95% CI 0.774 to 0.823) at 12 months and 0.764 (95% CI 0.737 to 0.789) at 24 months. Each was slightly better than the performance of the clinician panel. The model performed consistently across a range of cancers, including rare cancers. Combining ECO and EAR data yielded better prediction than the ECO-based model (AUCs ranging from 0.757 to 0.997 for 6 months, AUCs from 0.689 to 0.988 for 12 months and AUCs from 0.713 to 0.973 for 24 months). The best prediction was for genitourinary, head and neck, lung, skin, and upper gastrointestinal tumours. Conclusions Machine learning applied to information from a disease-specific (cancer) database and the EAR can be used to predict clinical outcomes. Importantly, the approach described made use of digital data that is already routinely collected but underexploited by clinical health systems. PMID:24643167

Machine-learning prediction of cancer survival: a retrospective study using electronic administrative records and a cancer registry.

PubMed

Gupta, Sunil; Tran, Truyen; Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Kennedy, Richard Lee; Broad, Adam; Campbell, David; Kipp, David; Singh, Madhu; Khasraw, Mustafa; Matheson, Leigh; Ashley, David M; Venkatesh, Svetha

2014-03-17

Using the prediction of cancer outcome as a model, we have tested the hypothesis that through analysing routinely collected digital data contained in an electronic administrative record (EAR), using machine-learning techniques, we could enhance conventional methods in predicting clinical outcomes. A regional cancer centre in Australia. Disease-specific data from a purpose-built cancer registry (Evaluation of Cancer Outcomes (ECO)) from 869 patients were used to predict survival at 6, 12 and 24 months. The model was validated with data from a further 94 patients, and results compared to the assessment of five specialist oncologists. Machine-learning prediction using ECO data was compared with that using EAR and a model combining ECO and EAR data. Survival prediction accuracy in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The ECO model yielded AUCs of 0.87 (95% CI 0.848 to 0.890) at 6 months, 0.796 (95% CI 0.774 to 0.823) at 12 months and 0.764 (95% CI 0.737 to 0.789) at 24 months. Each was slightly better than the performance of the clinician panel. The model performed consistently across a range of cancers, including rare cancers. Combining ECO and EAR data yielded better prediction than the ECO-based model (AUCs ranging from 0.757 to 0.997 for 6 months, AUCs from 0.689 to 0.988 for 12 months and AUCs from 0.713 to 0.973 for 24 months). The best prediction was for genitourinary, head and neck, lung, skin, and upper gastrointestinal tumours. Machine learning applied to information from a disease-specific (cancer) database and the EAR can be used to predict clinical outcomes. Importantly, the approach described made use of digital data that is already routinely collected but underexploited by clinical health systems.

SERAPHIN haemodynamic substudy: the effect of the dual endothelin receptor antagonist macitentan on haemodynamic parameters and NT-proBNP levels and their association with disease progression in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension

PubMed Central

Galiè, Nazzareno; Jansa, Pavel; Pulido, Tomás; Channick, Richard N.; Delcroix, Marion; Ghofrani, Hossein-Ardeschir; Le Brun, Franck-Olivier; Mehta, Sanjay; Perchenet, Loïc; Rubin, Lewis J.; Sastry, B.K.S.; Simonneau, Gérald; Sitbon, Olivier; Souza, Rogério; Torbicki, Adam

2017-01-01

Aims The effect of macitentan on haemodynamic parameters and NT-proBNP levels was evaluated in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients in the SERAPHIN study. Association between these parameters and disease progression, assessed by the primary endpoint (time to first morbidity/mortality event), was explored. Methods and results Of the 742 randomized patients, 187 with right heart catheterization at baseline and month 6 participated in a haemodynamic sub-study. Prespecified endpoints included change from baseline to month 6 in cardiac index (CI), right atrial pressure (RAP), mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP), pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR), mixed-venous oxygen saturation, and NT-proBNP. Exploratory analyses examined associations between CI, RAP, and NT-proBNP and disease progression using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models. Macitentan improved CI, RAP, mPAP, PVR and NT-proBNP vs. placebo at month 6. Absolute levels of CI, RAP and NT-proBNP at baseline and month 6, but not their changes, were associated with morbidity/mortality events. Patients with CI > 2.5 L/min/m2, RAP < 8 mmHg, or NT-proBNP < 750 fmol/ml at month 6 had a lower risk of morbidity/mortality than those not meeting these thresholds (HR 0.49, 95% CL 0.28–0.86; HR 0.72, 95% CL 0.42–1.22; and HR 0.22, 95% CL 0.15–0.33, respectively). Conclusions For all treatment groups, baseline and month 6 values of CI, RAP, and NT-proBNP, but not their changes, were associated with morbidity/mortality events, confirming their relevance in predicting disease progression in patients with PAH. By improving those parameters, macitentan increased the likelihood of reaching threshold values associated with lower risk of morbidity/mortality. PMID:28329315

SERAPHIN haemodynamic substudy: the effect of the dual endothelin receptor antagonist macitentan on haemodynamic parameters and NT-proBNP levels and their association with disease progression in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension.

PubMed

Galiè, Nazzareno; Jansa, Pavel; Pulido, Tomás; Channick, Richard N; Delcroix, Marion; Ghofrani, Hossein-Ardeschir; Le Brun, Franck-Olivier; Mehta, Sanjay; Perchenet, Loïc; Rubin, Lewis J; Sastry, B K S; Simonneau, Gérald; Sitbon, Olivier; Souza, Rogério; Torbicki, Adam

2017-04-14

The effect of macitentan on haemodynamic parameters and NT-proBNP levels was evaluated in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) patients in the SERAPHIN study. Association between these parameters and disease progression, assessed by the primary endpoint (time to first morbidity/mortality event), was explored. Of the 742 randomized patients, 187 with right heart catheterization at baseline and month 6 participated in a haemodynamic sub-study. Prespecified endpoints included change from baseline to month 6 in cardiac index (CI), right atrial pressure (RAP), mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP), pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR), mixed-venous oxygen saturation, and NT-proBNP. Exploratory analyses examined associations between CI, RAP, and NT-proBNP and disease progression using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models. Macitentan improved CI, RAP, mPAP, PVR and NT-proBNP vs. placebo at month 6. Absolute levels of CI, RAP and NT-proBNP at baseline and month 6, but not their changes, were associated with morbidity/mortality events. Patients with CI > 2.5 L/min/m2, RAP < 8 mmHg, or NT-proBNP < 750 fmol/ml at month 6 had a lower risk of morbidity/mortality than those not meeting these thresholds (HR 0.49, 95% CL 0.28-0.86; HR 0.72, 95% CL 0.42-1.22; and HR 0.22, 95% CL 0.15-0.33, respectively). For all treatment groups, baseline and month 6 values of CI, RAP, and NT-proBNP, but not their changes, were associated with morbidity/mortality events, confirming their relevance in predicting disease progression in patients with PAH. By improving those parameters, macitentan increased the likelihood of reaching threshold values associated with lower risk of morbidity/mortality. © The Author 2017. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology

The predictive value of metabolic syndrome for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

PubMed

Amouzegar, Atieh; Mehran, Ladan; Hasheminia, Mitra; Kheirkhah Rahimabad, Parnian; Azizi, Fereidoun

2017-01-01

The association of total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality with metabolic syndrome (Mets) is controversial. We estimated the predictive value of MetS and its components for total and CVD mortality. A total of 7932 subjects aged ≥ 30 years; participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study were enrolled and followed for 9.0 ± 2.3 years. MetS was defined according to three different definitions: World Health Organization (WHO), International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and Joint Interim Statement (JIS). WHO-MetS remained a significant predictor of total and CVD mortality in men (HR 1.66, 95%CI 1.23-2.24, p < 0.001; 1.93 HR 1.93, 95%CI 1.26-2.94, p = 0.002) and women (HR 2.01, 95%CI 1.39-2.88, p < 0.001; HR 2.71, 95%CI 1.44-5.09, p = 0.002), respectively. IDF-MetS was associated with increased risk of total mortality only in women (HR 1.51, 95%CI 1.07-2.12, p = 0.01), but after controlling for diabetes, IDF and WHO-MetS lost their associations. The incidence of CVD mortality was highest in WHO group (13.4) compared with IDF (8.5), JIS (8.14) and control (5.5) groups. The incidence of total mortality for WHO (27.1) was highest compared with IDF (17.7), JIS (16.5) and control (12.9) groups. In men, hypertension, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and abdominal obesity and in women, IFG (WHO criteria) and high triglycerides levels increased the risk of CVD mortality. In men, hypertension and IFG directly and high triglycerides inversely were associated with total mortality. In women, IFG and obesity increased the risk of all-cause mortality. Diagnosis of MetS seems no more informative than its individual components in predicting mortality. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mortality associated with bevacizumab intravitreal injections in age-related macular degeneration patients after acute myocardial infarct: a retrospective population-based survival analysis.

PubMed

Hanhart, Joel; Comaneshter, Doron S; Freier-Dror, Yossi; Vinker, Shlomo

2018-04-01

Intraocular injections of antivascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents are currently the main therapy in age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The safety of bevacizumab, an anti-VEGF compound frequently delivered off label, is debated, particularly for high-group risks. We aim to analyze the mortality associated with intravitreal injections of bevacizumab for AMD in patients previously diagnosed with acute myocardial infarct (MI). In a national database, we identified bevacizumab-treated AMD patients with a diagnosis of MI prior to their first bevacizumab injection, delivered between September 2008 and October 2014 (n = 2100). We then generated sub-groups of patients treated within 3 months (n = 11), 6 months (n = 24), 12 months (n = 52), and 24 months (n = 124) after MI. Those patients were compared to age- and gender-matched members that had a MI at the same time and had never been exposed to anti-VEGF. Survival analysis was performed using propensity score-adjusted Cox regression. Bevacizumab-treated patients were slightly and insignificantly older than controls (mean age 83.25 vs 83.19 year, P = .75). Gender distribution was similar. In a Cox regression adjusted with propensity score, the following differences in mortality were found: within 3 months between MI and initiation of bevacizumab treatment, OR = 6.22 (95% C.I 1.08-35.97, P < .05); within 6 months, OR = 2.37 (95% C.I 0.93-6.02, P = .071); within 12 months, OR = 3.00 (95% C.I 1.44-6.28, P < .01); within 24 months after MI, OR = 2.24 (95% C.I 1.35-3.70, P < .01); and MI any time prior to first bevacizumab injection, OR = 1.71 (95% C.I 1.53-1.92, P < .001). We report increased mortality associated with the use of intravitreal bevacizumab in AMD patients after MI, compared to age- and gender-matched post-MI patients with no exposure to any anti-VEGF agent. Caution should be taken while offering bevacizumab to AMD patients after MI.

Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

PubMed Central

Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

2016-01-01

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

Metabolic acidosis status and mortality in patients on the end stage of renal disease.

PubMed

Raikou, Vaia D

2016-12-01

Uncorrected metabolic acidosis leads to higher death risk in dialysis patients. We observed the relationship between metabolic acidosis status and mortality rate in patients on renal replacement therapy during a median follow up time of 60 months. We studied 76 patients on an on-line hemodiafiltration. The dialysis adequacy was defined by Kt/V for urea. The Framingham risk score (FRS) points were used to determine the 10-year risk for coronary heart disease. We examined the impact of high or low serum bicarbonate concentrations on mortality rate and on 10-year risk for coronary heart disease via the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox's model was used to evaluate a combination of prognostic variables, such as dialysis adequacy defined by Kt/V for urea, age and serum bicarbonate concentrations. We divided the enrolled patients in three groups according to serum bicarbonate concentrations (< 20 mmol/L, 20-22 mmol/L and > 22 mmol/L). Kaplan-Meier survival curve for the impact of serum bicarbonate concentrations on overall mortality was found significant (log-rank = 7.8, P = 0.02). The prevalence of serum bicarbonate less or more than 20 mmol/L on high FRS (> 20%) by Kaplan-Meier curve was also found significant (log-rank = 4.9, P = 0.02). Cox's model revealed the significant predictive effect of serum bicarbonate on overall mortality ( P = 0.006, OR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.12-1.98) in combination to Kt/V for urea and age. Uncorrected severe metabolic acidosis, defined by serum bicarbonate concentrations less than 20 mmol/L, is associated with a 10-year risk for coronary heart disease more than 20% and high overall mortality in patients on renal replacement therapy.

Retrograde open mesenteric stenting for acute mesenteric ischemia.

PubMed

Blauw, Juliette T M; Meerwaldt, Robert; Brusse-Keizer, Marjolein; Kolkman, Jeroen J; Gerrits, Dick; Geelkerken, Robert H

2014-09-01

Acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) encompasses the sequels of end-stage untreated chronic mesenteric ischemia and acute mesenteric artery thrombosis. Percutaneous mesenteric artery stenting (PMAS) is the preferred treatment of patients with AMI but is not always feasible. Retrograde open mesenteric stenting (ROMS) is a hybrid technique that combines the advantages of open surgical and endovascular approaches. The literature on the results of this new technique is scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the results of ROMS in a consecutive series of patients with AMI. All patients with emergent mesenteric revascularization for AMI between January 2007 and September 2011 were entered in our prospective registry. Technical success, mortality, patency, clinical success, and complication rate at 30 days and 6 and 12 months were assessed. Sixty-eight patients presented with AMI and 54 underwent PMAS, of which four were unsuccessful and followed by ROMS. Eleven patients were directly treated with ROMS, making a total of 15 patients (10 women and five men; median age, 66 years [interquartile range, 54-73 years]). In all patients, only the superior mesenteric artery was revascularized. In nine of the 15 patients, all three mesenteric arteries were severely stenotic or occluded. Technical success was achieved in 14 patients. At ROMS in two patients, the small bowel was severely ischemic. One of these patients needed a partial bowel resection because of irreversible transmural ischemia. At 30 days, the mortality rate was 20% and the primary patency was 92%. Ten patients underwent unplanned relaparotomy, of whom one needed resection of a large part of the small bowel. At 12 months, the mortality rate was still 20%. The primary patency was 83%. Primary assisted patency was 91%, and secondary patency was 100%. Clinical success at 30 days, 6 months, and 12 months, respectively, was 73%, 67%, and 67%. AMI is still a devastating event. If PMAS is not feasible, ROMS is a reliable alternative and is associated with a relatively low mortality and morbidity rate. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Avian wildlife mortality events due to salmonellosis in the United States, 1985-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, A.J.; Saito, E.K.

2008-01-01

Infection with Salmonella spp. has long been recognized in avian wildlife, although its significance in causing avian mortality, and its zoonotic risk, is not well understood. This study evaluates the role of Salmonella spp. in wild bird mortality events in the United States from 1985 through 2004. Analyses were performed to calculate the frequency of these events and the proportional mortality by species, year, month, state, and region. Salmonellosis was a significant contributor to mortality in many species of birds; particularly in passerines, for which 21.5% of all mortality events involved salmonellosis. The proportional mortality averaged a 12% annual increase over the 20-yr period, with seasonal peaks in January and April. Increased salmonellosis-related mortality in New England, Southeastern, and Mountain-Prairie states was identified. Based on the results of this study, salmonellosis can be considered an important zoonotic disease of wild birds. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2008.

Retrospective evaluation of prognostic score performances in cirrhotic patients admitted to an intermediate care unit.

PubMed

Dupont, Benoît; Delvincourt, Maxime; Koné, Mamadou; du Cheyron, Damien; Ollivier-Hourmand, Isabelle; Piquet, Marie-Astrid; Terzi, Nicolas; Dao, Thông

2015-08-01

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients in the Intensive Care Unit requires the development of predictive tools for mortality. We aimed to evaluate the ability of different prognostic scores to predict hospital mortality in these patients. A single-centre retrospective analysis was conducted of 281 hospital stays of cirrhotic patients at an Intermediate Care Unit between June 2009 and December 2010. The performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SOFA), the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II or III, Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na and the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLF) in predicting hospital mortality were compared. Mean age was 58.2±12.1 years; 77% were male. The main cause of admission was acute gastrointestinal bleeding (47%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 25.3%. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated that SOFA (0.82) MELD-Na (0.82) or MELD (0.81) scores at admission predicted in-hospital mortality better than Child-Pugh (0.76), SAPS II (0.77), SAPS III (0.75) or CLIF-C ACLF (0.75). We then developed the cirrhosis prognostic score (Ci-Pro), which performed better (0.89) than SOFA. SOFA, MELD and especially the Ci-Pro score show the best performance in predicting hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intermediate Care Unit. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The clinical significance of 5% change in vital capacity in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: extended analysis of the pirfenidone trial

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Our phase III clinical trial of pirfenidone for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) revealed the efficacy in reducing the decline of vital capacity (VC) and increasing the progression-free survival (PFS) time by pirfenidone. Recently, marginal decline in forced VC (FVC) has been reported to be associated with poor outcome in IPF. We sought to evaluate the efficacy of pirfenidone from the aspects of 5% change in VC. Methods Improvement ratings based on 5% change in absolute VC, i.e., "improved (VC ≥ 5% increase)", "stable (VC < 5% change)", and "worsened (VC ≥ 5% decrease)" at month 3, 6, 9 and 12 were compared between high-dose pirfenidone (1800 mg/day; n = 108) and placebo (n = 104) groups, and (high-dose and low-dose (1200 mg/day; n = 55)) pirfenidone (n = 163) and placebo groups. PFS times with defining the disease progression as death or a ≥ 5% decline in VC were also compared between high-dose pirfenidone and placebo groups, and low-dose pirfenidone and placebo groups. Furthermore, considering "worsened" and "non-worsened (improved and stable)" of the ratings at months 3 and 12 as "positive" and "negative", respectively, and the positive and negative predictive values of the ratings were calculated in each group. Results In the comparison of the improvement ratings, the statistically significant differences were clearly revealed at months 3, 6, 9, and 12 between pirfenidone and placebo groups. Risk reductions by pirfenidone to placebo were approximately 35% over the study period. In the comparison of the PFS times, statistically significant difference was also observed between pirfenidone and placebo groups. The positive/negative predictive values in placebo and pirfenidone groups were 86.1%/50.8% and 87.1%/71.7%, respectively. Further, the baseline characteristics of patients worsened at month 3 had generally severe impairment, and their clinical outcomes including mortality were also significantly worsened after 1 year. Conclusions The efficacy of pirfenidone in Japanese phase III trial was supported by the rating of 5% decline in VC, and the VC changes at month 3 may be used as a prognostic factor of IPF. Trial Registration This clinical trial was registered with the Japan Pharmaceutical Information Center (JAPIC) on September 13th, 2005 (Registration Number: JAPICCTI-050121). PMID:21756364

Significance of large vessel intracranial occlusion causing acute ischemic stroke and TIA.

PubMed

Smith, Wade S; Lev, Michael H; English, Joey D; Camargo, Erica C; Chou, Maggie; Johnston, S Claiborne; Gonzalez, Gilberto; Schaefer, Pamela W; Dillon, William P; Koroshetz, Walter J; Furie, Karen L

2009-12-01

Acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO)-vertebral, basilar, carotid terminus, middle and anterior cerebral arteries-likely portends a worse prognosis than stroke unassociated with LVO. Because little prospective angiographic data have been reported on a cohort of unselected patients with stroke and with transient ischemic attack, the clinical impact of LVO has been difficult to quantify. The Screening Technology and Outcome Project in Stroke Study is a prospective imaging-based study of stroke outcomes performed at 2 academic medical centers. Patients with suspected acute stroke who presented within 24 hours of symptom onset and who underwent multimodality CT/CT angiography were approached for consent for collection of clinical data and 6-month assessment of outcome. Demographic and clinical variables and 6-month modified Rankin Scale scores were collected and combined with blinded interpretation of the CT angiography data. The OR of each variable, including occlusion of intracranial vascular segment in predicting good outcome and 6-month mortality, was calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Over a 33-month period, 735 patients with suspected stroke were enrolled. Of these, 578 were adjudicated as stroke and 97 as transient ischemic attack. Among patients with stroke, 267 (46%) had LVO accounting for the stroke and 13 (13%) of patients with transient ischemic attack had LVO accounting for transient ischemic attack symptoms. LVO predicted 6-month mortality (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.7 to 7.3; P<0.001). Six-month good outcome (modified Rankin Scale score

Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis.

PubMed

Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H; van Til, Janine A; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

2017-05-15

We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment. A prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome. Poor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22-36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81-93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42-60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal. Early EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

Cognitive-behavioral group therapy is an effective treatment for major depression in hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Duarte, Priscila Silveira; Miyazaki, Maria Cristina; Blay, Sergio Luís; Sesso, Ricardo

2009-08-01

Depression is an important target of psychological assessment in patients with end-stage renal disease because it predicts their morbidity, mortality, and quality of life. We assessed the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral therapy in chronic hemodialysis patients diagnosed with major depression by the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). In a randomized trial conducted in Brazil, an intervention group of 41 patients was given 12 weekly sessions of cognitive-behavioral group therapy led by a trained psychologist over 3 months while a control group of 44 patients received the usual treatment offered in the dialysis unit. In both groups, the Beck Depression Inventory, the MINI, and the Kidney Disease and Quality of Life-Short Form questionnaires were administered at baseline, after 3 months of intervention or usual treatment, and after 9 months of follow-up. The intervention group had significant improvements, compared to the control group, in the average scores of the Beck Depression Inventory overall scale, MINI scores, and in quality-of-life dimensions that included the burden of renal disease, sleep, quality of social interaction, overall health, and the mental component summary. We conclude that cognitive-behavioral group therapy is an effective treatment of depression in chronic hemodialysis patients.

Effects of the introduction of new vaccines in Guinea-Bissau on vaccine coverage, vaccine timeliness, and child survival: an observational study.

PubMed

Fisker, Ane B; Hornshøj, Linda; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Balde, Ibraima; Fernandes, Manuel; Benn, Christine S; Aaby, Peter

2014-08-01

In 2008, the GAVI Alliance funded the introduction of new vaccines (including pentavalent diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] plus hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type b antigens) in Guinea-Bissau. The introduction was accompanied by increased vaccination outreach services and a more restrictive wastage policy, including only vaccinating children younger than 12 months. We assessed coverage of all vaccines in the Expanded Program on Immunizations before and after the new vaccines' introduction, and the implications on child survival. This observational cohort study used data from the Bandim Health Project, which has monitored vaccination status and mortality in randomly selected village clusters in Guinea-Bissau since 1990. We assessed the change in vaccination coverage using cohort data from children born in 2007 and 2009; analysed the proportion of children who received measles vaccine after 12 months of age using data from 1999-2006; and compared child mortality after age 12 months in children who had received measles vaccine and those who had not using data from 1999 to 2006. The proportion of children who were fully vaccinated by 12 months of age was 53% (468 of 878) in the 2007 cohort and 53% (467 of 879) in the 2009 cohort (relative risk [RR] 1·00, 95% CI 0·89-1·11). Coverage of DTP-3 and pentavalent-3 increased from 73% (644 of 878) in 2007 to 81% (712 of 879) in 2009 (RR 1·10, 95% CI 1·04 -1·17); by contrast, the coverage of measles vaccination declined from 71% (620 of 878) to 66% (577 of 879; RR 0·93, 0·85-1·01). The effect of the changes was significantly different for DTP-3 coverage compared with measles vaccine coverage (p=0·002). After 12 months of age, the adjusted mortality rate ratio was 0·71 (95% CI 0·56-0·90) for children who had received measles vaccine compared with those who had not (0·59 [0·43-0·80] for girls and 0·87 [0·62-1·23] for boys). The introduction of the new vaccination programme in 2008 was associated with increased coverage of DTP, but decreased coverage of measles vaccine. In 1999-2006, child mortality was higher in children who had not received measles vaccine than in those who had. DANIDA, European Research Council, the Danish Independent Research Council, European Union FP7 via OPTIMUNISE, and Danish National Research Foundation. Copyright © 2014 Fisker et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Interpersonal styles, peer relationships, and outcomes in residential substance use treatment.

PubMed

Harrison, Anna J; Timko, Christine; Blonigen, Daniel M

2017-10-01

Interpersonal relationships play a key role in recovery from substance use disorders (SUDs). We examined the associations between problematic interpersonal styles, peer relationships, and treatment outcomes in a sample of U.S. military veterans in residential SUD treatment. Participants were 189 veterans enrolled in a residential SUD treatment program at a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Participants were interviewed at the time of treatment entry (baseline), one month into treatment, and 12months following discharge from treatment. More problematic interpersonal styles at treatment entry, measured by the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems-Circumplex (IIP-C), predicted more SUD symptoms 12months post-discharge (r=0.29, P<0.01). Results of a principal components analysis of the IIP-C subscales revealed three main factors of interpersonal styles: Passive, Cruel/Aloof, and Controlling. With the exception of the Passive factor, the relationship between these interpersonal styles and SUD symptoms 12months after discharge was mediated by relationship quality with peers one month in treatment: i.e., more problematic interpersonal styles at baseline predicted poorer relationship quality with peers at 1month, which in turn predicted more SUD symptoms at 12months. Results demonstrate the importance of assessing interpersonal styles among patients in residential SUD treatment, as well as potentially augmenting existing evidence-based psychosocial treatments with a focus on interpersonal styles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patients with Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: Impact of Preinjury Platelet Inhibitor or Warfarin Treatment.

PubMed

Tollefsen, Marie Hexeberg; Vik, Anne; Skandsen, Toril; Sandrød, Oddrun; Deane, Susan Frances; Rao, Vidar; Moen, Kent Gøran

2018-06-01

We aimed to examine the effect of preinjury antithrombotic medication on clinical and radiologic neuroworsening in traumatic brain injury (TBI) and study the effect on outcome. A total of 184 consecutive patients ≥50 years old with moderate and severe TBI admitted to a level 1 trauma center were included. Neuroworsening was assessed clinically by using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score and radiologically by using the Rotterdam CT score on repeated time points. Functional outcome was assessed with the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended 6 months after injury. The platelet inhibitor group (mean age, 77.3 years; n = 43) and the warfarin group (mean age, 73.2 years; n = 20) were significantly older than the nonuser group (mean age, 63.7 years; n = 121; P ≤ 0.001). In the platelet inhibitor group 74% and in the warfarin group, 85% were injured by falls. Platelet inhibitors were not significantly associated with clinical or radiologic neuroworsening (P = 0.37-1.00), whereas warfarin increased the frequency of worsening in GCS score (P = 0.001-0.028) and Rotterdam CT score (P = 0.004). In-hospital mortality was higher in the platelet inhibitor group (28%; P = 0.030) and the warfarin group (50%; P < 0.001) compared with the nonuser group (13%). Platelet inhibitors did not predict mortality or worse outcome after adjustment for age, preinjury disability, GCS score, and Rotterdam CT score, whereas warfarin predicted both mortality and worse outcome. In this study of patients with moderate and severe TBI, preinjury platelet inhibitors did not cause neuroworsening or predict higher mortality or worse outcome. In contrast, preinjury warfarin caused neuroworsening and was an independent risk factor for mortality and worse outcome at 6 months. Hence, fall prevention and liberal use of computed tomography examinations is important in this patient group. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causes of Mortality After Dose-Escalated Radiation Therapy and Androgen Deprivation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tendulkar, Rahul D., E-mail: tendulr@ccf.org; Hunter, Grant K.; Reddy, Chandana A.

Purpose: Men with high-risk prostate cancer have other competing causes of mortality; however, current risk stratification schema do not account for comorbidities. We aim to identify the causes of death and factors predictive for mortality in this population. Methods and Materials: A total of 660 patients with high-risk prostate cancer were treated with definitive high-dose external beam radiation therapy (≥74 Gy) and androgen deprivation (AD) between 1996 and 2009 at a single institution. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to determine factors predictive of survival. Results: The median radiation dose was 78 Gy, median duration of AD was 6more » months, and median follow-up was 74 months. The 10-year overall survival (OS) was 60.6%. Prostate cancer was the leading single cause of death, with 10-year mortality of 14.1% (95% CI 10.7-17.6), compared with other cancers (8.4%, 95% CI 5.7-11.1), cardiovascular disease (7.3%, 95% CI 4.7-9.9), and all other causes (10.4%, 95% CI 7.2-13.6). On multivariate analysis, older age (HR 1.55, P=.002) and Charlson comorbidity index score (CS) ≥1 (HR 2.20, P<.0001) were significant factors predictive of OS, whereas Gleason score, T stage, prostate-specific antigen, duration of AD, radiation dose, smoking history, and body mass index were not. Men younger than 70 years of age with CS = 0 were more likely to die of prostate cancer than any other cause, whereas older men or those with CS ≥1 more commonly suffered non-prostate cancer death. The cumulative incidences of prostate cancer-specific mortality were similar regardless of age or comorbidities (P=.60). Conclusions: Men with high-risk prostate cancer are more likely to die of causes other than prostate cancer, except for the subgroup of men younger than 70 years of age without comorbidities. Only older age and presence of comorbidities significantly predicted for OS, whereas prostate cancer- and treatment-related factors did not.« less

Chocolate consumption and mortality following a first acute myocardial infarction: the Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program.

PubMed

Janszky, I; Mukamal, K J; Ljung, R; Ahnve, S; Ahlbom, A; Hallqvist, J

2009-09-01

To assess the long-term effects of chocolate consumption amongst patients with established coronary heart disease. In a population-based inception cohort study, we followed 1169 non-diabetic patients hospitalized with a confirmed first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) between 1992 and 1994 in Stockholm County, Sweden, as part of the Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program. Participants self-reported usual chocolate consumption over the preceding 12 months with a standardized questionnaire distributed during hospitalization and underwent a health examination 3 months after discharge. Participants were followed for hospitalizations and mortality with national registries for 8 years. Chocolate consumption had a strong inverse association with cardiac mortality. When compared with those never eating chocolate, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-1.31), 0.56 (0.32-0.99) and 0.34 (0.17-0.70) for those consuming chocolate less than once per month, up to once per week and twice or more per week respectively. Chocolate consumption generally had an inverse but weak association with total mortality and nonfatal outcomes. In contrast, intake of other sweets was not associated with cardiac or total mortality. Chocolate consumption was associated with lower cardiac mortality in a dose dependent manner in patients free of diabetes surviving their first AMI. Although our findings support increasing evidence that chocolate is a rich source of beneficial bioactive compounds, confirmation of this strong inverse relationship from other observational studies or large-scale, long-term, controlled randomized trials is needed.

The AIMS65 score compared with the Glasgow-Blatchford score in predicting outcomes in upper GI bleeding.

PubMed

Hyett, Brian H; Abougergi, Marwan S; Charpentier, Joseph P; Kumar, Navin L; Brozovic, Suzana; Claggett, Brian L; Travis, Anne C; Saltzman, John R

2013-04-01

We previously derived and validated the AIMS65 score, a mortality prognostic scale for upper GI bleeding (UGIB). To validate the AIMS65 score in a different patient population and compare it with the Glasgow-Blatchford risk score (GBRS). Retrospective cohort study. Adults with a primary diagnosis of UGIB. inpatient mortality. composite clinical endpoint of inpatient mortality, rebleeding, and endoscopic, radiologic or surgical intervention; blood transfusion; intensive care unit admission; rebleeding; length of stay; timing of endoscopy. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated for each score. Of the 278 study patients, 6.5% died and 35% experienced the composite clinical endpoint. The AIMS65 score was superior in predicting inpatient mortality (AUROC, 0.93 vs 0.68; P < .001), whereas the GBRS was superior in predicting blood transfusions (AUROC, 0.85 vs 0.65; P < .01) The 2 scores were similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint (AUROC, 0.62 vs 0.68; P = .13) as well as the secondary outcomes. A GBRS of 10 and 12 or more maximized the sum of the sensitivity and specificity for inpatient mortality and rebleeding, respectively. The cutoff was 2 or more for the AIMS65 score for both outcomes. Retrospective, single-center study. The AIMS65 score is superior to the GBRS in predicting inpatient mortality from UGIB, whereas the GBRS is superior for predicting blood transfusion. Both scores are similar in predicting the composite clinical endpoint and other outcomes in clinical care and resource use. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Maximal exercise oxygen pulse as a predictor of mortality among male veterans referred for exercise testing.

PubMed

Oliveira, Ricardo B; Myers, Jonathan; Araújo, Claudio Gil S; Abella, Joshua; Mandic, Sandra; Froelicher, Victor

2009-06-01

Maximal oxygen pulse (O(2) pulse) mirrors the stroke volume response to exercise, and should therefore be a strong predictor of mortality. Limited and conflicting data are, however, available on this issue. Nine hundred forty-eight participants, classified as those with cardiopulmonary disease (CPD) and those without (non-CPD), underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) for clinical reasons between 1993 and 2003. The ability of maximal O(2) pulse and maximal oxygen uptake (peak VO(2)) to predict mortality was investigated using proportional hazards and Akaike information criterion analyses. All-cause mortality was the endpoint. Over a mean follow-up of 6.3+/-3.2 years, there were 126 deaths. Maximal O(2) pulse, expressed in either absolute or relative to age-predicted terms, and peak VO(2) were significant and independent predictors of mortality in those with and without CPD (P<0.04). Akaike information criterion analysis revealed that the model including both maximal O(2) pulse and peak VO(2) had the highest accuracy for predicting mortality. The optimal cut-points for O(2) pulse and peak VO(2) (<12; > or =12 ml/beat and <16; > or =16 ml/(kg.min) respectively) were established by the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve. The relative risks of mortality were 3.4 and 2.2 (CPD and non-CPD, respectively) among participants with both maximal O(2) pulse and peak VO(2) responses below these cut-points compared with participants with both responses above these cut-points. These results indicate that maximal O(2) pulse is a significant predictor of mortality in patients with and without CPD. The addition of absolute and relative O(2) pulse data provides complementary information for risk-stratifying heterogeneous participants referred for CPX and should be routinely included in the CPX report.

Noninvasive markers of liver fibrosis: on-treatment changes of serum markers predict the outcome of antifibrotic therapy.

PubMed

Tanwar, Sudeep; Trembling, Paul M; Hogan, Brian J; Srivastava, Ankur; Parkes, Julie; Harris, Scott; Grant, Paul; Nastouli, Eleni; Ocker, Mathias; Wehr, Klaus; Herold, Christoph; Neureiter, Daniel; Schuppan, Detlef; Rosenberg, William M

2017-03-01

The utility of noninvasive serum markers to longitudinally monitor liver fibrosis is not established. A total of 70 patients with chronic hepatitis C who had previously failed antiviral therapy were randomized to receive pegylated interferon with or without silymarin for 24 months. Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) tests (hyularonic acid, terminal peptide of procollagen III, tissue inhibitor of matrix metaloproteinase-1) were performed on patient sera obtained before, during and at the end of the study (0, 12, 24 months) and liver histology obtained before and at the end of the study. At 24 months, absolute changes in Ishak fibrosis stage and ELF ranged from -4 to +4 and from -2.41 to +2.68, respectively. Absolute changes in ELF at 12 months were significantly associated with changes in both ELF and histology at 24 months. A model combining both baseline ELF and change of ELF at 12 months could predict the 24-month ELF (R=0.609, P<1×10), a decrease in ELF at 24 months [area under the curve (AUC): 0.80-0.85] and an increase in ELF at 24 months (AUC: 0.81-0.85). Furthermore, a model combining both baseline histologic stage and ELF together with the change of ELF at 12 months could predict 24-month histology (R=0.601, P<1×10, AUC: 0.88-0.92), histologic fibrosis regression (AUC: 0.81-0.84) and progression (AUC: 0.86-0.91). Our observations suggest that a change in the serum marker ELF predicts changes in liver fibrosis over a longer period. These data support the use of ELF as a surrogate marker of liver fibrosis evolution in monitoring antifibrotic treatments, thus permitting 'response-guided' therapy by the early identification of patients who will benefit from prolonged treatment.

Treatment of acute diverticulitis laparoscopic lavage vs. resection (DILALA): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Thornell, Anders; Angenete, Eva; Gonzales, Elisabeth; Heath, Jane; Jess, Per; Läckberg, Zoltan; Ovesen, Henrik; Rosenberg, Jacob; Skullman, Stefan; Haglind, Eva

2011-08-01

Perforated diverticulitis is a condition associated with substantial morbidity. Recently published reports suggest that laparoscopic lavage has fewer complications and shorter hospital stay. So far no randomised study has published any results. DILALA is a Scandinavian, randomised trial, comparing laparoscopic lavage (LL) to the traditional Hartmann's Procedure (HP). Primary endpoint is the number of re-operations within 12 months. Secondary endpoints consist of mortality, quality of life (QoL), re-admission, health economy assessment and permanent stoma. Patients are included when surgery is required. A laparoscopy is performed and if Hinchey grade III is diagnosed the patient is included and randomised 1:1, to either LL or HP. Patients undergoing LL receive > 3L of saline intraperitoneally, placement of pelvic drain and continued antibiotics. Follow-up is scheduled 6-12 weeks, 6 months and 12 months. A QoL-form is filled out on discharge, 6- and 12 months. Inclusion is set to 80 patients (40+40). HP is associated with a high rate of complication. Not only does the primary operation entail complications, but also subsequent surgery is associated with a high morbidity. Thus the combined risk of treatment for the patient is high. The aim of the DILALA trial is to evaluate if laparoscopic lavage is a safe, minimally invasive method for patients with perforated diverticulitis Hinchey grade III, resulting in fewer re-operations, decreased morbidity, mortality, costs and increased quality of life. British registry (ISRCTN) for clinical trials ISRCTN82208287http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN82208287.

[Comparison of predictive factors related to the mortality and rebleeding caused by variceal bleeding: Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and Rockall score].

PubMed

Lee, Ja Young; Lee, Jin Heon; Kim, Soo Jin; Choi, Dae Rho; Kim, Kyung Ho; Kim, Yong Bum; Kim, Hak Yang; Yoo, Jae Young

2002-12-01

The first episode of variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The Child-Pugh(CP) scoring system has been widely accepted for prognostic assessment. Recently, MELD has been known to be better than the CP scoring system for predicting mortality in patients with end-stage liver diseases. The Rockall risk scoring system was developed to predict the outcome of upper GI bleeding including variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate the mortality rate of first variceal bleeding and the predictability of each scoring system. We evaluated the 6-week mortality rate, rebleeding rate, and 1-year mortality rate of all the 136 patients with acute variceal bleeding without previous episode of hemorrhage between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2000. The CP score, MELD score, and Rockall score were estimated and analyzed. Among 136 patients, 35 patients with hepatoma and 8 patients with follow-up loss were excluded. Six-week mortality rate, 1-year mortality rate, and rebleeding rate of first variceal bleeding were 24.7%, 35.5%, and 12.9%, respectively. The c-statistics of CP, MELD, and Rockall score for predicting 6-week mortality rate were 0.809 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.720-0.898), 0.804 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.696-0.911), 0.787 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.683-0.890), respectively. For 1-year mortality rate, c-statistics were 0.765 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.665-0.865), 0.780 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.676-0.883), 0.730 (p<0.01, 95% CI, 0.627-0.834), respectively. The CP, MELD, and Rockall scores were reliable measures of mortality risk in patients with first variceal bleeding. The CP classification is useful in its easy applicability.

Bioelectrical impedance analysis-derived phase angle at admission as a predictor of 90-day mortality in intensive care patients.

PubMed

Stapel, Sandra N; Looijaard, Wilhelmus G P M; Dekker, Ingeborg M; Girbes, Armand R J; Weijs, Peter J M; Oudemans-van Straaten, Heleen M

2018-05-11

A low bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA)-derived phase angle (PA) predicts morbidity and mortality in different patient groups. An association between PA and long-term mortality in ICU patients has not been demonstrated before. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether PA on ICU admission independently predicts 90-day mortality. This prospective observational study was performed in a mixed university ICU. BIA was performed in 196 patients within 24 h of ICU admission. To test the independent association between PA and 90-day mortality, logistic regression analysis was performed using the APACHE IV predicted mortality as confounder. The optimal cutoff value of PA for mortality prediction was determined by ROC curve analysis. Using this cutoff value, patients were categorized into low or normal PA group and the association with 90-day mortality was tested again. The PA of survivors was higher than of the non-survivors (5.0° ± 1.3° vs. 4.1° ± 1.2°, p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve of PA for 90-day mortality was 0.70 (CI 0.59-0.80). PA was associated with 90-day mortality (OR = 0.56, CI: 0.38-0.77, p = 0.001) on univariate logistic regression analysis and also after adjusting for BMI, gender, age, and APACHE IV on multivariable logistic regression (OR = 0.65, CI: 0.44-0.96, p = 0.031). A PA < 4.8° was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality (adjusted OR = 3.65, CI: 1.34-9.93, p = 0.011). Phase angle at ICU admission is an independent predictor of 90-day mortality. This biological marker can aid in long-term mortality risk assessment of critically ill patients.

Importance of early weight changes to predict long-term weight gain during psychotropic drug treatment.

PubMed

Vandenberghe, Frederik; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; Saigí-Morgui, Núria; Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Choong, Eva; Solida-Tozzi, Alessandra; Kolly, Stéphane; Thonney, Jacques; Gallo, Sylfa Fassassi; Hedjal, Ahmed; Ambresin, Anne-Emmanuelle; von Gunten, Armin; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

2015-11-01

Psychotropic drugs can induce substantial weight gain, particularly during the first 6 months of treatment. The authors aimed to determine the potential predictive power of an early weight gain after the introduction of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs on long-term weight gain. Data were obtained from a 1-year longitudinal study ongoing since 2007 including 351 psychiatric (ICD-10) patients, with metabolic parameters monitored (baseline and/or 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 months) and with compliance ascertained. International Diabetes Federation and World Health Organization definitions were used to define metabolic syndrome and obesity, respectively. Prevalences of metabolic syndrome and obesity were 22% and 17%, respectively, at baseline and 32% and 24% after 1 year. Receiver operating characteristic analyses indicated that an early weight gain > 5% after a period of 1 month is the best predictor for important long-term weight gain (≥ 15% after 3 months: sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 88%; ≥ 20% after 12 months: sensitivity, 47%; specificity, 89%). This analysis identified most patients (97% for 3 months, 93% for 12 months) who had weight gain ≤ 5% after 1 month as continuing to have a moderate weight gain after 3 and 12 months. Its predictive power was confirmed by fitting a longitudinal multivariate model (difference between groups in 1 year of 6.4% weight increase as compared to baseline, P = .0001). Following prescription of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs, a 5% threshold for weight gain after 1 month should raise clinician concerns about weight-controlling strategies. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Feelings of being disabled as a prognostic factor for mortality in men and women post-PCI up to 12years.

PubMed

Bergmann, Michael J; Utens, Elisabeth M W J; de Jager, Tom A J; Radhoe, Sumant P; Daemen, Joost; Lenzen, Mattie J; van Domburg, Ron T; Dulfer, Karolijn

2017-12-15

It remains unclear whether feelings of being disabled are a relevant psychological factor that determines long term outcome after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Therefore, we evaluated 'feelings of being disabled' as an independent risk factor for mortality 12years post-PCI. The study population comprised a consecutive series of CAD patients (n=845) treated with PCI as part of the Taxus-Stent Evaluated At Rotterdam Cardiology Hospital (T-SEARCH) registry. Of these patients n=646 (age 63years, 75% male) completed the subscale 'feelings of being disabled' of the Heart Patients Psychological Questionnaire (HPPQ), within the first month after PCI. At 12year follow-up, n=209 patients (32%) died. Of the 162 females n=73 (45%) experienced high feelings of being disabled (High-FOBD) and of the 484 males, n=134 (28%) reported high-FOBD. Patients with high feelings of being disabled had a two-fold increased risk of mortality at 12-year follow-up (HR=1.86, 95% CI=1.41-2.45). After adjusting, high feelings of being disabled remained a predictor of 12-year mortality (HR=2.53, 95% CI=1.30-4.90). This study confirms that psychosocial variables like feelings of being disabled influence cardiac morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, there is no difference in mortality between men and women with high feelings of being disabled 12years post-PCI. It is important that clinicians are aware that PCI-patients who feel disabled have a less favorable survival and that the difference in survival is even greater for women who feel disabled. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infants’ Early Visual Attention and Social Engagement as Developmental Precursors to Joint Attention

PubMed Central

Salley, Brenda; Sheinkopf, Stephen J.; Neal-Beevers, A. Rebecca; Tenenbaum, Elena J.; Miller-Loncar, Cynthia L.; Tronick, Ed; Lagasse, Linda L.; Shankaran, Seetha; Bada, Henrietta; Bauer, Charles; Whitaker, Toni; Hammond, Jane; Lester, Barry M.

2016-01-01

This study examined infants’ early visual attention (at 1 month of age) and social engagement (4 months) as predictors of their later joint attention (12 and 18 months). The sample (n=325), drawn from the Maternal Lifestyle Study, a longitudinal multicenter project conducted at four centers of the NICHD Neonatal Research Network, included high-risk (cocaine exposed) and matched non-cocaine exposed infants. Hierarchical regressions revealed that infants’ attention orienting at 1 month significantly predicted more frequent initiating joint attention at 12 (but not 18) months of age. Social engagement at 4 months predicted initiating joint attention at 18 months. Results provide the first empirical evidence for the role of visual attention and social engagement behaviors as developmental precursors for later joint attention outcome. PMID:27786527

The association between temperature and mortality in tropical middle income Thailand from 1999 to 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Dear, Keith; Kjellstrom, Tord; Sleigh, Adrian

2014-03-01

We have investigated the association between tropical weather condition and age-sex adjusted death rates (ADR) in Thailand over a 10-year period from 1999 to 2008. Population, mortality, weather and air pollution data were obtained from four national databases. Alternating multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) regression and stepwise multivariable linear regression analysis were used to sequentially build models of the associations between temperature variable and deaths, adjusted for the effects and interactions of age, sex, weather (6 variables), and air pollution (10 variables). The associations are explored and compared among three seasons (cold, hot and wet months) and four weather zones of Thailand (the North, Northeast, Central, and South regions). We found statistically significant associations between temperature and mortality in Thailand. The maximum temperature is the most important variable in predicting mortality. Overall, the association is nonlinear U-shape and 31 °C is the minimum-mortality temperature in Thailand. The death rates increase when maximum temperature increase with the highest rates in the North and Central during hot months. The final equation used in this study allowed estimation of the impact of a 4 °C increase in temperature as projected for Thailand by 2100; this analysis revealed that the heat-related deaths will increase more than the cold-related deaths avoided in the hot and wet months, and overall the net increase in expected mortality by region ranges from 5 to 13 % unless preventive measures were adopted. Overall, these results are useful for health impact assessment for the present situation and future public health implication of global climate change for tropical Thailand.

Performance of Djallonké sheep under an extensive system of production in Faranah, Guinea.

PubMed

Mourad, M; Gbanamou, G; Balde, I B

2001-10-01

A total of 147 ewes, 4 rams and 188 lambs of their progeny of the Djallonké breed of sheep were used to study the factors affecting reproductive and growth traits and the causes of lamb mortality. Data on ewes were collected during a 12-month period, while those on the lambs born to 123 of the ewes were collected until they were 12 months of age. The average fertility and abortion rates were 0.84 and 0.09. The fertility rate increased and the abortion rate decreased with increasing age of the ewes (p<0.05). The number of lambs born per ewe joined, litter weight at birth per ewe joined and litter weight at weaning per ewe joined were 1.28, 3.5 kg and 17 kg, respectively. The average numbers of lambs born per ewe, lambs born alive per ewe, lambs born dead per ewe and lambs per ewe that died between birth and weaning were 1.53, 1.43, 0.03 and 0.3, respectively. The age of the ewes significantly (p<0.05) affected all these traits except the number of dead lambs and the index of fertility (94%). The age of the ewes significantly (p<0.05) affected the birth weight and the weight at 6 and 12 months of age, whereas the lambing season significantly (p<0.05) affected all the growth traits studied. The type of birth was the most important source of variation in body weights of lambs. Sex had no significant (p>0.05) effect on the growth traits studied. The complex 'starvation-bad management-light body weight at birth' caused 48% of the lamb mortality between birth and weaning, while diarrhoea, pneumonia and internal and external parasites caused approximately 52% of the lamb mortality over the same period. The seasonal raw mortality rate of the lambs before weaning was highest in the humid season.

Effects of statin therapy on clinical outcomes after acute myocardial infarction in patients with advanced renal dysfunction: A propensity score-matched analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Jin Sug; Kim, Weon; Park, Ji Yoon; Woo, Jong Shin; Lee, Tae Won; Ihm, Chun Gyoo; Kim, Yang Gyun; Moon, Ju-Young; Lee, Sang Ho; Jeong, Myung Ho; Jeong, Kyung Hwan

2017-01-01

Lipid lowering therapy is widely used for the prevention of cardiovascular complications after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, some studies show that this benefit is uncertain in patients with renal dysfunction, and the role of statins is based on the severity of renal dysfunction. In this study, we investigated the impact of statin therapy on major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) and all-cause mortality in patients with advanced renal dysfunction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) after AMI. This study was based on the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry database. We included 861 patients with advanced renal dysfunction from among 33,205 patients who underwent PCI after AMI between November 2005 and July 2012. Patients were divided into two groups: a statin group (n = 537) and a no-statin group (n = 324). We investigated the 12-month MACEs (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, repeated PCI or coronary artery bypass grafting) and all-cause mortality of each group. Subsequently, a propensity score-matched analysis was performed. In the total population studied, no significant differences were observed between the two groups with respect to the rate of recurrent MI, repeated PCI, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), or all-cause mortality. However, the cardiac death rate was significantly lower in the statin group (p = 0.009). Propensity score-matched analysis yielded 274 pairs demonstrating, results similar to those obtained from the total population. However, there was no significant difference in the cardiac death rate in the propensity score-matched population (p = 0.103). Cox-regression analysis revealed only left ventricular ejection fraction to be an independent predictor of 12-month MACEs (Hazard ratio [HR] of 0.979, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0962-0.996, p = 0.018). Statin therapy was not significantly associated with a reduction in the 12-month MACEs or all-cause mortality in patients with advanced renal dysfunction undergoing PCI after AMI.

Allogeneic blood transfusion in bilateral lung transplantation: impact on early function and mortality.

PubMed

Ong, Lay Ping; Thompson, Emily; Sachdeva, Ashwin; Ramesh, B C; Muse, Hazel; Wallace, Kirstie; Parry, Gareth; Clark, Stephen Charles

2016-02-01

Blood transfusion is associated with higher morbidity and mortality after general cardiothoracic surgery but its impact within the transplant population is unclear. We investigated the profile of blood product transfusion in the bilateral lung transplant population and its impact on function and mortality. Three hundred and eleven adult patients who underwent bilateral lung transplant between 2003 and 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were stratified according to pretransplant diagnoses and amount of blood products transfused within 24 h of transplant. All-cause mortality at the 1-year follow-up was analysed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. One hundred and seventy-four male patients and 137 female patients (mean age = 41.4 ± 14.0 years) underwent bilateral lung transplant using cardiopulmonary bypass for cystic fibrosis (48.9%), fibrotic lung disease (12.2%), emphysema (27.0%), bronchiectasis (5.8%), pulmonary hypertension (1.3%) and others (4.5%). The median number of red blood cells in the first 24 h was 3 (0-40) units, fresh frozen plasma (FFP) = 2 (0-26) units and platelets = 1 (0-7) units. The unadjusted all-cause mortality at the 1-year follow-up did not appear to be different between patient subgroups stratified by the median number of units of red blood cells (P = 0.827) or FFP transfused (P = 0.456). However, 1-year mortality was adversely affected when more than the median number of units of platelets was transfused (P = 0.010). Upon adjustment for confounding variables, 1-year mortality was noted to be greater among patients transfused more than the median unit of platelets (adjusted hazard ratios: 2.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.15-4.61, P = 0.019) and those with longer bypass times (P = 0.046). No significant difference in the number of units transfused was noted when patients were stratified by pretransplant diagnosis. Predicted lung function at 3 and 6 months was not significantly affected by greater blood product use. Unlike general cardiothoracic surgery, blood transfusion had no effect on all-cause mortality, whereas a greater administration of platelets was observed to be associated with higher adjusted 1-year mortality. Transfusion rates were not significantly influenced by pretransplant diagnoses. Interestingly, lung function at 3 and 6 months was similar for patients who received more blood product transfusion. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Efficacy, Safety and Cost of Insecticide Treated Wall Lining, Insecticide Treated Bed Nets and Indoor Wall Wash with Lime for Visceral Leishmaniasis Vector Control in the Indian Sub-continent: A Multi-country Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Das, Pradeep; Ghosh, Debashis; Priyanka, Jyoti; Matlashewski, Greg; Kroeger, Axel; Upfill-Brown, Alexander

2016-01-01

Background We investigated the efficacy, safety and cost of lime wash of household walls plus treatment of sand fly breeding places with bleach (i.e. environmental management or EM), insecticide impregnated durable wall lining (DWL), and bed net impregnation with slow release insecticide (ITN) for sand fly control in the Indian sub-continent. Methods This multi-country cluster randomized controlled trial had 24 clusters in each three sites with eight clusters per high, medium or low sand fly density stratum. Every cluster included 45–50 households. Five households from each cluster were randomly selected for entomological measurements including sand fly density and mortality at one, three, nine and twelve months post intervention. Household interviews were conducted for socioeconomic information and intervention acceptability assessment. Cost for each intervention was calculated. There was a control group without intervention. Findings Sand fly mortality [mean and 95%CI] ranged from 84% (81%-87%) at one month to 74% (71%-78%) at 12 months for DWL, 75% (71%-79%) at one month to 49% (43%-55%) at twelve months for ITN, and 44% (34%-53%) at one month to 22% (14%-29%) at twelve months for EM. Adjusted intervention effect on sand fly density measured by incidence rate ratio ranged from 0.28 (0.23–0.34) at one month to 0.62 (0.51–0.75) at 12 months for DWL; 0.72 (0.62–0.85) at one month to 1.02 (0.86–1.22) at 12 months for ITN; and 0.89 (0.76–1.03) at one months to 1.49 (1.26–1.74) at 12 months for EM. Household acceptance of EM was 74% compared to 94% for both DWL and ITN. Operational cost per household in USD was about 5, 8, and 2 for EM, DWL and ITN, respectively. Minimal adverse reactions were reported for EM and ITN while 36% of households with DWL reported transient itching. Interpretation DWL is the most effective, durable and acceptable control method followed by ITN. The Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Elimination Program in the Indian sub-continent should consider DWL and ITN for sand fly control in addition to IRS. PMID:27533097

Associations between age at first calving and subsequent lactation performance in UK Holstein and Holstein-Friesian dairy cows

PubMed Central

Eastham, Neil T.; Coates, Amy; Cripps, Peter; Richardson, Henry; Smith, Robert

2018-01-01

Lactation records from 396,534 pedigree Holstein and Holstein-Friesian primiparous cows from 6,985 UK milk recorded herds, calving for the first time during the period between the 1st of January 2006 and the 31st of December 2008, were examined in order to determine the associations between age at first calving (AFC) and subsequent production, udder health, fertility and survivability parameters. Heifers were grouped by AFC into single month classes ranging from 21 to 42 months. Mixed effects multivariable regression modelling was used for data analysis. Mean and median AFC were 29.1 and 28 months respectively. Within the study, only 48,567 heifers (12.3% of the studied population) calved for the first time at 24 months of age or younger. 162,157 heifers (40.9%) were 30 months or older at their first calving. An increased AFC was associated with increased first lactation milk, fat and protein yields. The lowest predicted mean 305-day yield (6,617kgs; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6,546–6,687 kgs) was recorded for the 21 month AFC class, significantly lower than any other class. The 36 month AFC class had the highest predicted mean (7,774 kgs; 95% CI: 7,737–7,811 kgs). However, an increased AFC was also associated with increased calving interval and increased first lactation somatic cell count (SCC). Animals calving at 21 months had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 72,765 (95% CI: 68427–77378). Animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 86,648 (95% CI: 84,499–88,853). Importantly, an increased AFC was also associated with decreased lifetime daily milk yield and decreased likelihood of calving for a second successive time. Animals calving at 22 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 15.24 kgs (95% CI: 15.06–15.35); animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 12.83 kgs (95% CI: 12.76–12.91). Our results highlight the importance of achieving a lower age at first calving which was here associated with improved udder health, increased lifetime daily milk yield, improved reproductive performance and increased likelihood of calving for a second time. PMID:29897929

Associations between age at first calving and subsequent lactation performance in UK Holstein and Holstein-Friesian dairy cows.

PubMed

Eastham, Neil T; Coates, Amy; Cripps, Peter; Richardson, Henry; Smith, Robert; Oikonomou, Georgios

2018-01-01

Lactation records from 396,534 pedigree Holstein and Holstein-Friesian primiparous cows from 6,985 UK milk recorded herds, calving for the first time during the period between the 1st of January 2006 and the 31st of December 2008, were examined in order to determine the associations between age at first calving (AFC) and subsequent production, udder health, fertility and survivability parameters. Heifers were grouped by AFC into single month classes ranging from 21 to 42 months. Mixed effects multivariable regression modelling was used for data analysis. Mean and median AFC were 29.1 and 28 months respectively. Within the study, only 48,567 heifers (12.3% of the studied population) calved for the first time at 24 months of age or younger. 162,157 heifers (40.9%) were 30 months or older at their first calving. An increased AFC was associated with increased first lactation milk, fat and protein yields. The lowest predicted mean 305-day yield (6,617kgs; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6,546-6,687 kgs) was recorded for the 21 month AFC class, significantly lower than any other class. The 36 month AFC class had the highest predicted mean (7,774 kgs; 95% CI: 7,737-7,811 kgs). However, an increased AFC was also associated with increased calving interval and increased first lactation somatic cell count (SCC). Animals calving at 21 months had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 72,765 (95% CI: 68427-77378). Animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 86,648 (95% CI: 84,499-88,853). Importantly, an increased AFC was also associated with decreased lifetime daily milk yield and decreased likelihood of calving for a second successive time. Animals calving at 22 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 15.24 kgs (95% CI: 15.06-15.35); animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 12.83 kgs (95% CI: 12.76-12.91). Our results highlight the importance of achieving a lower age at first calving which was here associated with improved udder health, increased lifetime daily milk yield, improved reproductive performance and increased likelihood of calving for a second time.

Long-Term Outcomes of Medication Intervention Using the Screening Tool of Older Persons Potentially Inappropriate Prescriptions Screening Tool to Alert Doctors to Right Treatment Criteria.

PubMed

Frankenthal, Dvora; Israeli, Avi; Caraco, Yoseph; Lerman, Yaffa; Kalendaryev, Edward; Zandman-Goddard, Gisele; Lerman, Yehuda

2017-02-01

To compare 24-month outcomes of participants of a prospective randomized controlled trial (RCT) assigned to undergo a medication intervention of orally communicated recommendations based on Screening Tool of Older Persons potentially inappropriate Prescriptions (STOPP) and Screening Tool to Alert Doctors to Right Treatment (START) (intervention group) with outcomes of those assigned to undergo written medication review (control group). Retrospective cohort study. Chronic care geriatric facility. Of 359 participants from a prospective RCT conducted between April 2012 and September 2013, 306 were evaluable for another 12-month follow-up. Outcomes at 24-month follow-up included quality of prescribing (assessed according to STOPP/START), hospitalizations, falls, costs of medications, and all-cause mortality. Outcomes were compared with those reported at the beginning (baseline) and end (12-month follow-up) of the RCT. There was a significant rise in potentially inappropriate prescriptions (PIPs) (P = .01) and potentially prescriptions omissions (PPOs) (P < .001) in the intervention group between 12 and 24 months, although the prevalence of PIPs was significantly lower in the intervention group (33.3%) than the control group (48.4%) at 24-month follow-up (P = .02). Costs of medications were significantly lower in the intervention group than the control group (P < .001) at 24-month follow-up. The average number of falls in both groups dropped significantly between baseline and study closure (P = .04 and P = .008, respectively). There was no significant difference in hospitalizations and mortality between the two groups at 24-month follow-up. The effect of an orally communicated medication intervention with the STOPP/START criteria on falls was maintained over time. Direct communication between pharmacists and prescribing physicians is more efficient than written medication review and is recommended every 6 months in geriatric facilities. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Change in Leukocyte Telomere Length Predicts Mortality in Patients with Stable Coronary Heart Disease from the Heart and Soul Study.

PubMed

Goglin, Sarah E; Farzaneh-Far, Ramin; Epel, Elissa S; Lin, Jue; Blackburn, Elizabeth H; Whooley, Mary A

2016-01-01

Short telomere length independently predicts mortality in patients with coronary heart disease. Whether 5-year change in telomere length predicts subsequent mortality in patients with coronary heart disease has not been evaluated. In a prospective cohort study of 608 individuals with stable coronary artery disease, we measured leukocyte telomere length at baseline and after five years of follow-up. We divided the sample into tertiles of telomere change: shortened, maintained or lengthened. We used Cox survival models to evaluate 5-year change in telomere length as a predictor of mortality. During an average of 4.2 years follow-up, there were 149 deaths. Change in telomere length was inversely predictive of all-cause mortality. Using the continuous variable of telomere length change, each standard deviation (325 base pair) greater increase in telomere length was associated with a 24% reduction in mortality (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.94; p = 0.01), adjusted for age, sex, waist to hip ratio, exercise capacity, LV ejection fraction, serum creatinine, and year 5 telomere length. Mortality occurred in 39% (79/203) of patients who experienced telomere shortening, 22% (45/203) of patients whose telomere length was maintained, and 12% (25/202) of patients who experienced telomere lengthening (p<0.001). As compared with patients whose telomere length was maintained, those who experienced telomere lengthening were 56% less likely to die (HR 0.44, 95% CI, 0.23-0.87). In patients with coronary heart disease, an increase in leukocyte telomere length over 5 years is associated with decreased mortality.

Comparing the adequacy of the MNA-SF, NRS-2002 and MUST nutritional tools in assessing malnutrition in hip fracture operated elderly patients.

PubMed

Koren-Hakim, Tamar; Weiss, Avraham; Hershkovitz, Avital; Otzrateni, Irena; Anbar, Ronit; Gross Nevo, Revital Feige; Schlesinger, Agata; Frishman, Sigal; Salai, Moshe; Beloosesky, Yichayaou

2016-10-01

Malnutrition is common in hip fracture elderly patients. There is no gold standard for screening nutritional risk. We compared the adequacy of 3 screening tools, their association to nutritional measurements and their ability to predict outcome. The Mini Nutrition Assessment Short Form (MNA-SF), the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and the Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) were prospectively determined. Length of stay (LOS), complications, 6 months readmission and up-to 36 months mortality were recorded. 215 operated patients were included: 154 (71.6%) were women; mean age was 83.5 ± 6.09 years (66-104). According to the MNA-SF, 95 patients were well-nourished, 95 were at risk of malnutrition and 25 were malnourished. Based on the MUST, 171 patients were at a low risk of malnutrition, 31 at a medium risk, 13 at a high risk. According to the NRS-2002, 134 patients were at a low risk of malnutrition, 70 at a medium risk, 11 at a high risk. A significant relationship between the nutritional groups of the 3 scores (p < 0.001) was found. In all screening tools, body mass index, weight loss and food intake prior to admission were found to be related to the patients' nutritional status (p < 0.001). No differences in LOS and complications were found between the patients' nutritional status of each screening tool; only the MNA-SF predicted that well-nourished patients would have less readmissions during a 6 month follow-up (p = 0.024). During a 36 month follow-up, 79 patients died. According to the MNA-SF, mortality was lower in the well-nourished patients vs. the malnourished (p = 0.001) and at risk of malnutrition patients (p = 0.01). A less significant association was found between the NRS-2002 patients' nutritional status and mortality (p = 0.048). The MUST did not reveal this relationship. All screening tools were adequate in assessing malnutrition parameters in hip fracture operated elderly patients, however, only the MNA-SF could also predict readmissions and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Two-stage arterial switch operation: is late ever too late?

PubMed

Al Qethamy, Howaida O; Aizaz, Khawar; Aboelnazar, Saber A R; Hijab, Samina; Al Faraidi, Yahya

2002-09-01

Results of the two-stage arterial switch operation in 49 patients with transposition of the great arteries, performed between January 1995 and September 2000, were reviewed retrospectively. Twenty-one patients had a ventricular septal defect. Anatomical correction was carried out 21.89 +/- 9.86 months after pulmonary artery banding, with or without a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt. Hospital mortality was 8% (4 patients). During follow-up of 30.12 +/- 14.38 months, there was 1 late death and 1 patient required reoperation for pseudoaneurysm of the ascending aorta. Actuarial survival and freedom from reoperation at 5 years were 90% and 97%, respectively. Late anatomic correction (> 6 months) after the preliminary procedure can be performed with an acceptable mortality and morbidity, but undue delay may lead to left ventricular dysfunction, arrhythmias, and new aortic valve regurgitation or subaortic stenosis.

Ward mortality after ICU discharge: a multicenter validation of the Sabadell score.

PubMed

Fernandez, Rafael; Serrano, Jose Manuel; Umaran, Isabel; Abizanda, Ricard; Carrillo, Andres; Lopez-Pueyo, Maria Jesus; Rascado, Pedro; Balerdi, Begoña; Suberviola, Borja; Hernandez, Gonzalo

2010-07-01

Tools for predicting post-ICU patients' outcomes are scarce. A single-center study showed that the Sabadell score classified patients into four groups with clear-cut differences in ward mortality. To validate the Sabadell score using a prospective multicenter approach. Thirty-one ICUs in Spain. All patients admitted in the 3-month study period. We recorded variables at ICU admission (age, sex, severity of illness, and do-not-resuscitate orders), during the ICU stay (ICU-specific treatments, ICU-acquired infection, and acute renal failure), and at ICU discharge (Sabadell score). Statistical analyses included one-way ANOVA and multiple regression analysis with ward mortality as the dependent variable. We admitted 4,132 patients (mean age 61.5 +/- 16.7 years) with mean predicted mortality of 23.8 +/- 22.7%; 545 patients (13%) died in the ICU and 3,587 (87%) were discharged to the ward. Overall ward mortality was 6.7%; ward mortality was 1.5% (36/2,422) in patients with score 0 (good prognosis), 9% (64/725) in patients with score 1 (long-term poor prognosis), 23% (79/341) in patients with score 2 (short-term poor prognosis), and 64% (63/99) in patients with score 3 (expected hospital death). Variables associated with ward mortality in the multivariate analysis were predicted risk of death (OR 1.016), ICU readmission (OR 5.9), Sabadell score 1 (OR 4.7), Sabadell score 2 (OR 15.7), and Sabadell score 3 (OR 107.2). We confirm the ability of the Sabadell score at ICU discharge to define four groups of patients with very different likelihoods of hospital survival.

Early Gray-Matter and White-Matter Concentration in Infancy Predict Later Language Skills: A Whole Brain Voxel-Based Morphometry Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Can, Dilara Deniz; Richards, Todd; Kuhl, Patricia K.

2013-01-01

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) brain scans were obtained from 19 infants at 7 months. Expressive and receptive language performance was assessed at 12 months. Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) identified brain regions where gray-matter and white-matter concentrations at 7 months correlated significantly with children's language scores at 12 months.…

Forecasting mortality of road traffic injuries in China using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model.

PubMed

Zhang, Xujun; Pang, Yuanyuan; Cui, Mengjing; Stallones, Lorann; Xiang, Huiyun

2015-02-01

Road traffic injuries have become a major public health problem in China. This study aimed to develop statistical models for predicting road traffic deaths and to analyze seasonality of deaths in China. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to fit the data from 2000 to 2011. Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and mean absolute percentage error were used to evaluate the constructed models. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of residuals and Ljung-Box test were used to compare the goodness-of-fit between the different models. The SARIMA model was used to forecast monthly road traffic deaths in 2012. The seasonal pattern of road traffic mortality data was statistically significant in China. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model was the best fitting model among various candidate models; the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and mean absolute percentage error were -483.679, -475.053, and 4.937, respectively. Goodness-of-fit testing showed nonautocorrelations in the residuals of the model (Ljung-Box test, Q = 4.86, P = .993). The fitted deaths using the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model for years 2000 to 2011 closely followed the observed number of road traffic deaths for the same years. The predicted and observed deaths were also very close for 2012. This study suggests that accurate forecasting of road traffic death incidence is possible using SARIMA model. The SARIMA model applied to historical road traffic deaths data could provide important evidence of burden of road traffic injuries in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

2010-07-01

In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running mean), which occurred during March-May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26 (12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0.

Epidemiology and 12-month outcomes from traumatic brain injury in australia and new zealand.

PubMed

Myburgh, John A; Cooper, D James; Finfer, Simon R; Venkatesh, Balasubramanian; Jones, Daryl; Higgins, Alisa; Bishop, Nicole; Higlett, Tracey

2008-04-01

An epidemiologic profile of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Australia and New Zealand was obtained following the publication of international evidence-based guidelines. Adult patients with TBI admitted to the intensive care units (ICU) of major trauma centers were studied in a 6-month prospective inception cohort study. Data including mechanisms of injury, prehospital interventions, secondary insults, operative and intensive care management, and outcome assessments 12-months postinjury were collected. There were 635 patients recruited from 16 centers. The mean (+/-SD) age was 41.6 years +/- 19.6 years; 74.2% were men; 61.4% were due to vehicular trauma, 24.9% were falls in elderly patients, and 57.2% had severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale score

The 6-minute walking test and all-cause mortality in patients undergoing a post-cardiac surgery rehabilitation program.

PubMed

La Rovere, Maria Teresa; Pinna, Gian Domenico; Maestri, Roberto; Olmetti, Francesca; Paganini, Vincenzo; Riccardi, Giorgio; Riccardi, Roberto; Goggi, Claudio; Ranucci, Marco; Febo, Oreste

2015-01-01

The 6-minute walking test (6mWT) is used to prescribe physical activity in cardiac surgery patients. The clinical value of a pre-discharge 6mWT and its association with outcome is not well defined. We retrospectively analyzed data from 313 patients (age 66 ± 11 years, 23% females, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 52 ± 11%, Hb 10.5 ± 1.3 g/dl, serum albumin 3.9 ± 0.4 mg/dl) who were admitted to our rehabilitation institute following cardiac surgery. A 6mWT was performed at entry and at discharge and expressed as % of theoretical predicted values calculated on the basis of individual age, height, weight and sex. The endpoint was represented by all-cause mortality. The predictive value of 6mWT was tested in univariate and multivariate analysis. A pre-discharge 6mWT was completed by 284 out of 313 patients. Two patients died in hospital. During a median of 23 months, mortality was 9% (26/284) and 44% (12/27) (p < 0.0001) in patients who did or did not perform the pre-discharge 6mWT. The distance covered at the pre-discharge 6mWT as a continuous variable of % predicted values was a significant predictor of subsequent mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.97 (95% CI 0.96-0.99), p = 0.0019). After adjustment for all preselected covariates, the pre-discharge 6mWT (HR 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99), p = 0.0038) and LVEF (HR 0.93 (95% CI 0.90-0.96), p < 0.0001) remained significantly associated with the outcome. In recent cardiac surgery patients, the pre-discharge 6mWT is not only a valid measurement of the impact of cardiac rehabilitation but also provides outcome information offering the possibility to identify patients who may need more intensive follow-up. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Association of lean body mass with nutritional parameters and mortality in hemodialysis patients: A long-term follow-up clinical study.

PubMed

Zhou, Dong Chi; Yang, Xiu Hong; Zhan, Xiao Li; Gu, Yan Hong; Guo, Li Li; Jin, Hui Min

2018-06-01

This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between lean body mass (LBM) and nutritional status in hemodialysis (HD) patients to better predict their long-term prognosis. Anthropometric body measurements and biochemical parameters were recorded from 222 patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) at the Shanghai Pudong Hospital Hemodialysis Center. LBM was calculated using the serum creatinine index (LBM-SCR), mid-arm muscle circumference (LBM-MAMC), and dominant-arm hand-grip strength (LBM-HGS). Patient mortality and hospitalization were observed after 24 months. LBMs measured from LBM-SCR and LBM-MAMC were associated with sex, body mass index (BMI), serum albumin, and serum creatinine (SCR) ( p < 0.05). Through three methods of LBM evaluation, low LBM was shown to be associated with a higher mortality in patients undergoing HD ( p < 0.05). In addition, the rate of hospitalization among these patients was significantly increased ( p < 0.05). Performing multivariate regression analysis using mortality and hospitalization as the dependent variable, we found LBM-SCR and LBM-HGS are strongly associated with hospitalization and mortality in HD patients, indicating LBM is an important factor in prediction of outcomes in those patients. LBM is associated with nutritional parameters in HD patients, and LBM-SCR, HGS, and MAMC are simple approaches for accurately predicting the patient's risk of hospitalization and/or death.