Environmental Impact Analysis Process. Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Winnersville Weapons Range, Lanier and Lowndes Counties, Georgia

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-01

proposed range . 54 Table 4.4. HUD site acceptability standards ... ........... .. 55 Table 4.5. Predicted pollutant emissions for flight activties...Current flight operations from Moody contribute particulatmatter, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, oxides of nitrogen, and oxides of sulfur to the...regional pollution levels, but because of the amounts emitted and the altitudes at which they typically occur, these emissions have only minor impact on

Anticipating and Communicating Plausible Environmental and Health Concerns Associated with Future Disasters: The ShakeOut and ARkStorm Scenarios as Examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Alpers, C. N.; Hoefen, T. M.; Meeker, G. P.

2010-12-01

Disasters commonly pose immediate threats to human safety, but can also produce hazardous materials (HM) that pose short- and long-term environmental-health threats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has helped assess potential environmental health characteristics of HM produced by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as the 2001 World Trade Center collapse, 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2007-2009 southern California wildfires, various volcanic eruptions, and others. Building upon experience gained from these responses, we are now developing methods to anticipate plausible environmental and health implications of the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario (which modeled the impacts of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08/), and the recent ARkStorm scenario (modeling the impacts of a major, weeks-long winter storm hitting nearly all of California, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm/). Environmental-health impacts of various past earthquakes and extreme storms are first used to identify plausible impacts that could be associated with the disaster scenarios. Substantial insights can then be gleaned using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to link ShakeOut and ARkStorm effects maps with data extracted from diverse database sources containing geologic, hazards, and environmental information. This type of analysis helps constrain where potential geogenic (natural) and anthropogenic sources of HM (and their likely types of contaminants or pathogens) fall within areas of predicted ShakeOut-related shaking, firestorms, and landslides, and predicted ARkStorm-related precipitation, flooding, and winds. Because of uncertainties in the event models and many uncertainties in the databases used (e.g., incorrect location information, lack of detailed information on specific facilities, etc.) this approach should only be considered as the first of multiple steps toward a more quantitative, predictive approach to understanding the potential sources, types, environmental behavior, and health implications of HM predicted to result from these disaster scenarios. Although only a first step, this qualitative approach will help enhance planning for, mitigation of, and resilience to environmental-health consequences of future disasters. This qualitative approach also requires careful communication to stakeholders that does not sensationalize or overstate potential problems, but rather conveys plausible impacts and next steps to improve understanding of potential risks and their mitigation.

76 FR 50324 - Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Impact Report/Environmental Impact Statement for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-12

... cities by delivering predictable and consistent travel times. The Project includes high-speed track... express travel time of 2 hours and 40 minutes or less. Phase 2 will connect the Central Valley to the..., CA, Madera, CA, and Fresno, CA respectively at the times and dates listed in the Addresses Section...

Impact resistance of fiber composites - Energy-absorbing mechanisms and environmental effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Sinclair, J. H.

1985-01-01

Energy absorbing mechanisms were identified by several approaches. The energy absorbing mechanisms considered are those in unidirectional composite beams subjected to impact. The approaches used include: mechanic models, statistical models, transient finite element analysis, and simple beam theory. Predicted results are correlated with experimental data from Charpy impact tests. The environmental effects on impact resistance are evaluated. Working definitions for energy absorbing and energy releasing mechanisms are proposed and a dynamic fracture progression is outlined. Possible generalizations to angle-plied laminates are described.

Impact resistance of fiber composites: Energy absorbing mechanisms and environmental effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Sinclair, J. H.

1983-01-01

Energy absorbing mechanisms were identified by several approaches. The energy absorbing mechanisms considered are those in unidirectional composite beams subjected to impact. The approaches used include: mechanic models, statistical models, transient finite element analysis, and simple beam theory. Predicted results are correlated with experimental data from Charpy impact tests. The environmental effects on impact resistance are evaluated. Working definitions for energy absorbing and energy releasing mechanisms are proposed and a dynamic fracture progression is outlined. Possible generalizations to angle-plied laminates are described.

Cryptic chytridiomycosis linked to climate and genetic variation in amphibian populations of the southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Eric A.; Tye, Matthew R.; Hether, Tyler D.; Savage, Anna E.

2017-01-01

North American amphibians have recently been impacted by two major emerging pathogens, the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and iridoviruses in the genus Ranavirus (Rv). Environmental factors and host genetics may play important roles in disease dynamics, but few studies incorporate both of these components into their analyses. Here, we investigated the role of environmental and genetic factors in driving Bd and Rv infection prevalence and severity in a biodiversity hot spot, the southeastern United States. We used quantitative PCR to characterize Bd and Rv dynamics in natural populations of three amphibian species: Notophthalmus perstriatus, Hyla squirella and Pseudacris ornata. We combined pathogen data, genetic diversity metrics generated from neutral markers, and environmental variables into general linear models to evaluate how these factors impact infectious disease dynamics. Occurrence, prevalence and intensity of Bd and Rv varied across species and populations, but only one species, Pseudacris ornata, harbored high Bd intensities in the majority of sampled populations. Genetic diversity and climate variables both predicted Bd prevalence, whereas climatic variables alone predicted infection intensity. We conclude that Bd is more abundant in the southeastern United States than previously thought and that genetic and environmental factors are both important for predicting amphibian pathogen dynamics. Incorporating both genetic and environmental information into conservation plans for amphibians is necessary for the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate the impact of emerging infectious diseases. PMID:28448517

Forecasting the Environmental Impacts of New Energetic Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-30

Quantitative structure- activity relationships for chemical reductions of organic contaminants. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 22(8): 1733-1742. QSARs ...activity relationships [ QSARs ]) and the use of these properties to predict the chemical?s fate with multimedia assessment models. SERDP has recently...has several parts, including the prediction of chemical properties (e.g., with quantitative structure-activity relationships [ QSARs ]) and the use of

A case study predicting environmental impacts of urban transport planning in China.

PubMed

Chen, Chong; Shao, Li-guo; Xu, Ling; Shang, Jin-cheng

2009-10-01

Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.

Shuttle sonic boom - Technology and predictions. [environmental impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, P. F.; Wilhold, G. A.; Jones, J. H.; Garcia, F., Jr.; Hicks, R. M.

1973-01-01

Because the shuttle differs significantly in both geometric and operational characteristics from conventional supersonic aircraft, estimation of sonic boom characteristics required a new technology base. The prediction procedures thus developed are reviewed. Flight measurements obtained for both the ascent and entry phases of the Apollo 15 and 16 and for the ascent phase only of the Apollo 17 missions are presented which verify the techniques established for application to shuttle. Results of extensive analysis of the sonic boom overpressure characteristics completed to date are presented which indicate that this factor of the shuttle's environmental impact is predictable, localized, of short duration and acceptable. Efforts are continuing to define the shuttle sonic boom characteristics to a fine level of detail based on the final system design.

Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation.

PubMed

Meineri, Eric; Deville, Anne-Sophie; Grémillet, David; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Béchet, Arnaud

2015-02-01

Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Impact of environmental variables on Dubas bug infestation rate: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman

PubMed Central

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M.; Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

Date palm cultivation is economically important in the Sultanate of Oman, with significant financial investment coming from both the government and from private individuals. However, a global infestation of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) has impacted the Middle East region, and infestations of date palms have been widespread. In this study, spatial analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to model the spatial distribution of Dubas bug infestations to (a) identify correlations between Dubas bug densities and different environmental variables, and (b) predict the locations of future Dubas bug infestations in Oman. Firstly, we considered individual environmental variables and their correlations with infestation locations. Then, we applied more complex predictive models and regression analysis techniques to investigate the combinations of environmental factors most conducive to the survival and spread of the Dubas bug. Environmental variables including elevation, geology, and distance to drainage pathways were found to significantly affect Dubas bug infestations. In contrast, aspect and hillshade did not significantly impact on Dubas bug infestations. Understanding their distribution and therefore applying targeted controls on their spread is important for effective mapping, control and management (e.g., resource allocation) of Dubas bug infestations. PMID:28558069

Impact of environmental variables on Dubas bug infestation rate: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman.

PubMed

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

Date palm cultivation is economically important in the Sultanate of Oman, with significant financial investment coming from both the government and from private individuals. However, a global infestation of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) has impacted the Middle East region, and infestations of date palms have been widespread. In this study, spatial analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to model the spatial distribution of Dubas bug infestations to (a) identify correlations between Dubas bug densities and different environmental variables, and (b) predict the locations of future Dubas bug infestations in Oman. Firstly, we considered individual environmental variables and their correlations with infestation locations. Then, we applied more complex predictive models and regression analysis techniques to investigate the combinations of environmental factors most conducive to the survival and spread of the Dubas bug. Environmental variables including elevation, geology, and distance to drainage pathways were found to significantly affect Dubas bug infestations. In contrast, aspect and hillshade did not significantly impact on Dubas bug infestations. Understanding their distribution and therefore applying targeted controls on their spread is important for effective mapping, control and management (e.g., resource allocation) of Dubas bug infestations.

Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats.

PubMed

Jaganathan, Venkatesh; Cherurveettil, Priyesh; Muthu Sivashanmugam, Premapriya

2015-01-01

Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization.

Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats

PubMed Central

Muthu Sivashanmugam, Premapriya

2015-01-01

Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization. PMID:26065024

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R. D.; de Boer, Willem F.; Stillman, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R D; de Boer, Willem F; Stillman, Richard A

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.

Development of a framework for quantifying the environmental impacts of urban development and construction practices.

PubMed

Li, Ke; Zhang, Peng; Crittenden, John C; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit; Chen, Yongsheng; Fernando, Harindra; Sawhney, Anil; McCartney, Peter; Grimm, Nancy; Kahhat, Ramzy; Joshi, Himanshu; Konjevod, Goran; Choi, Yu-Jin; Fonseca, Ernesto; Allenby, Braden; Gerrity, Daniel; Torrens, Paul M

2007-07-15

To encourage sustainable development, engineers and scientists need to understand the interactions among social decision-making, development and redevelopment, land, energy and material use, and their environmental impacts. In this study, a framework that connects these interactions was proposed to guide more sustainable urban planning and construction practices. Focusing on the rapidly urbanizing setting of Phoenix, Arizona, complexity models and deterministic models were assembled as a metamodel, which is called Sustainable Futures 2100 and were used to predict land use and development, to quantify construction material demands, to analyze the life cycle environmental impacts, and to simulate future ground-level ozone formation.

Household location choices: implications for biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Peterson, M Nils; Chen, Xiaodong; Liu, Jianguo

2008-08-01

Successful conservation efforts require understanding human behaviors that directly affect biodiversity. Choice of household location represents an observable behavior that has direct effects on biodiversity conservation, but no one has examined the sociocultural predictors of this choice relative to its environmental impacts. We conducted a case study of the Teton Valley of Idaho and Wyoming (U.S.A.) that (1) explored relationships between sociodemographic variables, environmental attitudes, and the environmental impact of household location choices, (2) assessed the potential for small household sizes in natural areas to multiply the environmental impacts of household location decisions, and (3) evaluated how length of residency predicted the environmental attitudes of people living in natural areas. We collected sociodemographic data, spatial coordinates, and land-cover information in a survey of 416 households drawn from a random sample of Teton Valley residents (95% compliance rate). Immigrants (respondents not born in the study area) with the lowest education levels and least environmentally oriented attitudes lived in previously established residential areas in disproportionately high numbers, and older and more educated immigrants with the most environmentally oriented attitudes lived in natural areas in disproportionately high numbers. Income was not a significant predictor of household location decisions. Those living in natural areas had more environmental impact per person because of the location and because small households (<3 people/household) were 4 times as likely in natural areas as large households. Longer residency in natural areas predicted less environmentally oriented attitudes, suggesting that living in natural areas does not foster more concern for nature. Because populaces are rapidly aging, growing more educated, and potentially growing more environmentally oriented, these patterns are troubling for biodiversity conservation. Our results demonstrate a need for environmentalists to make household location decisions that reflect their environmental attitudes and future research to address how interactions between education level, environmental attitudes, population aging, and household location choices influence biodiversity conservation.

UK Environmental Prediction - integration and evaluation at the convective scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Huw; Brunet, Gilbert; Harris, Chris; Best, Martin; Saulter, Andrew; Holt, Jason; Bricheno, Lucy; Brerton, Ashley; Reynard, Nick; Blyth, Eleanor; Martinez de la Torre, Alberto

2015-04-01

It has long been understood that accurate prediction and warning of the impacts of severe weather requires an integrated approach to forecasting. This was well demonstrated in the UK throughout winter 2013/14 when an exceptional run of severe winter storms, often with damaging high winds and intense rainfall led to significant damage from the large waves and storm surge along coastlines, and from saturated soils, high river flows and significant flooding inland. The substantial impacts on individuals, businesses and infrastructure indicate a pressing need to understand better the value that might be delivered through more integrated environmental prediction. To address this need, the Met Office, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and National Oceanography Centre have begun to develop the foundations of a coupled high resolution probabilistic forecast system for the UK at km-scale. This links together existing model components of the atmosphere, coastal ocean, land surface and hydrology. Our initial focus on a 2-year Prototype project will demonstrate the UK coupled prediction concept in research mode, including an analysis of the winter 2013/14 storms and its impacts. By linking science development to operational collaborations such as the UK Natural Hazards Partnership, we can ensure that science priorities are rooted in user requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of UK environmental prediction activities and an update on progress during the first year of the Prototype project. We will present initial results from the coupled model development and discuss the challenges to realise the potential of integrated regional coupled forecasting for improving predictions and applications.

Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations.

PubMed

Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Ø; Sandanger, Torkjel M

2011-01-01

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants. Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas. The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury because of increased emissions and increased biological availability. A number of environmental stressors are predicted to increase with climate change and increasingly affecting human health. Efforts should be put on reducing risk for the next generation, thus global politics and research effort should focus on maternal and newborn health.

UK Environmental Prediction - integration and evaluation at the convective scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallmann, Joachim; Lewis, Huw; Castillo, Juan Manuel; Pearson, David; Harris, Chris; Saulter, Andy; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor

2016-04-01

Traditionally, the simulation of regional ocean, wave and atmosphere components of the Earth System have been considered separately, with some information on other components provided by means of boundary or forcing conditions. More recently, the potential value of a more integrated approach, as required for global climate and Earth System prediction, for regional short-term applications has begun to gain increasing research effort. In the UK, this activity is motivated by an understanding that accurate prediction and warning of the impacts of severe weather requires an integrated approach to forecasting. The substantial impacts on individuals, businesses and infrastructure of such events indicate a pressing need to understand better the value that might be delivered through more integrated environmental prediction. To address this need, the Met Office, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and NERC National Oceanography Centre have begun to develop the foundations of a coupled high resolution probabilistic forecast system for the UK at km-scale. This links together existing model components of the atmosphere, coastal ocean, land surface and hydrology. Our initial focus has been on a 2-year Prototype project to demonstrate the UK coupled prediction concept in research mode. This presentation will provide an update on UK environmental prediction activities. We will present the results from the initial implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system, including a new eddy-permitting resolution ocean component, and discuss progress and initial results from further development to integrate wave interactions in this relatively high resolution system. We will discuss future directions and opportunities for collaboration in environmental prediction, and the challenges to realise the potential of integrated regional coupled forecasting for improving predictions and applications.

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

PubMed

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

2014-03-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

30 CFR 556.82 - Environmental studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... extent practicable, be designed to predict environmental impacts of pollutants introduced into the... a manner designed to provide information which can be compared with the results of studies conducted... quality and productivity of such environments, to establish trends in the areas studies, and to design...

30 CFR 556.82 - Environmental studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... extent practicable, be designed to predict environmental impacts of pollutants introduced into the... a manner designed to provide information which can be compared with the results of studies conducted... quality and productivity of such environments, to establish trends in the areas studies, and to design...

30 CFR 556.82 - Environmental studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... extent practicable, be designed to predict environmental impacts of pollutants introduced into the... a manner designed to provide information which can be compared with the results of studies conducted... quality and productivity of such environments, to establish trends in the areas studies, and to design...

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Programmatic Environmental Analysis--Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Authors, Various

1980-01-01

The programmatic environmental analysis is an initial assessment of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technology considering development, demonstration and commercialization. It is concluded that the OTEC development program should continue because the development, demonstration, and commercialization on a single-plant deployment basis should not present significant environmental impacts. However, several areas within the OTEC program require further investigation in order to assess the potential for environmental impacts from OTEC operation, particularly in large-scale deployments and in defining alternatives to closed-cycle biofouling control: (1) Larger-scale deployments of OTEC clusters or parks require further investigations in order to assess optimal platform siting distancesmore » necessary to minimize adverse environmental impacts. (2) The deployment and operation of the preoperational platform (OTEC-1) and future demonstration platforms must be carefully monitored to refine environmental assessment predictions, and to provide design modifications which may mitigate or reduce environmental impacts for larger-scale operations. These platforms will provide a valuable opportunity to fully evaluate the intake and discharge configurations, biofouling control methods, and both short-term and long-term environmental effects associated with platform operations. (3) Successful development of OTEC technology to use the maximal resource capabilities and to minimize environmental effects will require a concerted environmental management program, encompassing many different disciplines and environmental specialties. This volume contains these appendices: Appendix A -- Deployment Scenario; Appendix B -- OTEC Regional Characterization; and Appendix C -- Impact and Related Calculations.« less

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning.

PubMed

Mörtberg, U M; Balfors, B; Knol, W C

2007-03-01

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.

OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sands, M. D.

1980-01-01

This programmatic environmental analysis is an initial assessment of OTEC technology considering development, demonstration and commercialization; it is concluded that the OTEC development program should continue because the development, demonstration, and commercialization on a single-plant deployment basis should not present significant environmental impacts. However, several areas within the OTEC program require further investigation in order to assess the potential for environmental impacts from OTEC operation, particularly in large-scale deployments and in defining alternatives to closed-cycle biofouling control: (1) Larger-scale deployments of OTEC clusters or parks require further investigations in order to assess optimal platform siting distances necessary to minimize adversemore » environmental impacts. (2) The deployment and operation of the preoperational platform (OTEC-1) and future demonstration platforms must be carefully monitored to refine environmental assessment predictions, and to provide design modifications which may mitigate or reduce environmental impacts for larger-scale operations. These platforms will provide a valuable opportunity to fully evaluate the intake and discharge configurations, biofouling control methods, and both short-term and long-term environmental effects associated with platform operations. (3) Successful development of OTEC technology to use the maximal resource capabilities and to minimize environmental effects will require a concerted environmental management program, encompassing many different disciplines and environmental specialties.« less

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Environmental Impact on Vascular Development Predicted by High Throughput Screening

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding health risks to embryonic development from exposure to environmental chemicals is a significant challenge given the diverse chemical landscape and paucity of data for most of these compounds. High throughput screening (HTS) in EPA’s ToxCastTM project provides vast d...

Environmental Impact Analysis Process. Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Winnersville Weapons Range, Lanier and Lowndes Counties, Georgia

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-01

pollutant emissions for flight activities over the proposed range (grams of pollutant per sortie)a Carbon Unburned Oxides of Particulates Oxides Aircraft...Table 4.4. HUD site acceptability standards ... ........... .. 55 Table 4.5. Predicted pollutant emissions for flight activties over the proposed range...matter, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, oxides of nitrogen, and oxides of sulfur to the regional pollution levels, but because of the amounts emitted and

Climate change: overview of data sources, observed and predicted temperature changes, and impacts on public and environmental health

Treesearch

David H. Levinson; Christopher J. Fettig

2014-01-01

This chapter addresses the societal and the environmental impacts of climate change related to increasing surface temperatures on air quality and forest health. Increasing temperatures at and near the earth’s surface, due to both a warming climate and urban heat island effects, have been shown to increase ground-level ozone concentrations in cities across the U.S. In...

Rising tides, cumulative impacts and cascading changes to estuarine ecosystem functions.

PubMed

O'Meara, Theresa A; Hillman, Jenny R; Thrush, Simon F

2017-08-31

In coastal ecosystems, climate change affects multiple environmental factors, yet most predictive models are based on simple cause-and-effect relationships. Multiple stressor scenarios are difficult to predict because they can create a ripple effect through networked ecosystem functions. Estuarine ecosystem function relies on an interconnected network of physical and biological processes. Estuarine habitats play critical roles in service provision and represent global hotspots for organic matter processing, nutrient cycling and primary production. Within these systems, we predicted functional changes in the impacts of land-based stressors, mediated by changing light climate and sediment permeability. Our in-situ field experiment manipulated sea level, nutrient supply, and mud content. We used these stressors to determine how interacting environmental stressors influence ecosystem function and compared results with data collected along elevation gradients to substitute space for time. We show non-linear, multi-stressor effects deconstruct networks governing ecosystem function. Sea level rise altered nutrient processing and impacted broader estuarine services ameliorating nutrient and sediment pollution. Our experiment demonstrates how the relationships between nutrient processing and biological/physical controls degrade with environmental stress. Our results emphasise the importance of moving beyond simple physically-forced relationships to assess consequences of climate change in the context of ecosystem interactions and multiple stressors.

Altered pesticide use on transgenic crops and the associated general impact from an environmental perspective.

PubMed

Kleter, Gijs A; Bhula, Raj; Bodnaruk, Kevin; Carazo, Elizabeth; Felsot, Allan S; Harris, Caroline A; Katayama, Arata; Kuiper, Harry A; Racke, Kenneth D; Rubin, Baruch; Shevah, Yehuda; Stephenson, Gerald R; Tanaka, Keiji; Unsworth, John; Wauchope, R Donald; Wong, Sue-Sun

2007-11-01

The large-scale commercial cultivation of transgenic crops has undergone a steady increase since their introduction 10 years ago. Most of these crops bear introduced traits that are of agronomic importance, such as herbicide or insect resistance. These traits are likely to impact upon the use of pesticides on these crops, as well as the pesticide market as a whole. Organizations like USDA-ERS and NCFAP monitor the changes in crop pest management associated with the adoption of transgenic crops. As part of an IUPAC project on this topic, recent data are reviewed regarding the alterations in pesticide use that have been observed in practice. Most results indicate a decrease in the amounts of active ingredients applied to transgenic crops compared with conventional crops. In addition, a generic environmental indicator -- the environmental impact quotient (EIQ) -- has been applied by these authors and others to estimate the environmental consequences of the altered pesticide use on transgenic crops. The results show that the predicted environmental impact decreases in transgenic crops. With the advent of new types of agronomic trait and crops that have been genetically modified, it is useful to take also their potential environmental impacts into account.

Binary logistic regression-Instrument for assessing museum indoor air impact on exhibits.

PubMed

Bucur, Elena; Danet, Andrei Florin; Lehr, Carol Blaziu; Lehr, Elena; Nita-Lazar, Mihai

2017-04-01

This paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The prediction of the impact on the exhibits during certain pollution scenarios (environmental impact) was calculated by a mathematical model based on the binary logistic regression; it allows the identification of those environmental parameters from a multitude of possible parameters with a significant impact on exhibitions and ranks them according to their severity effect. Air quality (NO 2 , SO 2 , O 3 and PM 2.5 ) and microclimate parameters (temperature, humidity) monitoring data from a case study conducted within exhibition and storage spaces of the Romanian National Aviation Museum Bucharest have been used for developing and validating the binary logistic regression method and the mathematical model. The logistic regression analysis was used on 794 data combinations (715 to develop of the model and 79 to validate it) by a Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 20.0). The results from the binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that from six parameters taken into consideration, four of them present a significant effect upon exhibits in the following order: O 3 >PM 2.5 >NO 2 >humidity followed at a significant distance by the effects of SO 2 and temperature. The mathematical model, developed in this study, correctly predicted 95.1 % of the cumulated effect of the environmental parameters upon the exhibits. Moreover, this model could also be used in the decisional process regarding the preventive preservation measures that should be implemented within the exhibition space. The paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The mathematical model developed on the environmental parameters analyzed by the binary logistic regression method could be useful in a decision-making process establishing the best measures for pollution reduction and preventive preservation of exhibits.

The Insignificance of Thresholds in Environmental Impact Assessment: An Illustrative Case Study in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wong, Janson; Singh, Gerald G.; Mach, Megan; Lerner, Jackie; Ranieri, Bernardo; Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume; Guimaraes, Alice; Chan, Kai M. A.

2018-06-01

Environmental assessment is the process that decision-makers rely on to predict, evaluate, and prevent biophysical, social, and economic impacts of potential project developments. The determination of significance in environmental assessment is central to environmental management in many nations. We reviewed ten recent environmental impact assessments from British Columbia, Canada and systematically reviewed and scored significance determination and the approaches used by assessors, the use of thresholds in significance determination, threshold exceedances, and the outcomes. Findings of significant impacts were exceedingly rare and practitioners used a combination of significance determination approaches, most commonly relying upon reasoned argumentation. Quantitative thresholds were rarely employed, with less than 10% of the valued components evaluated using thresholds. Even where quantitative thresholds for significance were exceeded, in every case practitioners used a variety of rationales to demote negative impacts to non-significance. These reasons include combinations of scale (temporal and spatial) of impacts, an already exceeded baseline, model uncertainty and/or substituting less stringent thresholds. Governments and agencies can better protect resources by requiring clear and defensible significance determinations, by making government-defined thresholds legally enforceable and accountable, and by requiring or encouraging significance determination through inclusive and collaborative approaches.

EOID System Model Validation, Metrics, and Synthetic Clutter Generation

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-30

Our long-term goal is to accurately predict the capability of the current generation of laser-based underwater imaging sensors to perform Electro ... Optic Identification (EOID) against relevant targets in a variety of realistic environmental conditions. The models will predict the impact of

Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary

2012-01-01

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.

Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk

Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliarmore » with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.« less

A modelling framework to predict bat activity patterns on wind farms: An outline of possible applications on mountain ridges of North Portugal.

PubMed

Silva, Carmen; Cabral, João Alexandre; Hughes, Samantha Jane; Santos, Mário

2017-03-01

Worldwide ecological impact assessments of wind farms have gathered relevant information on bat activity patterns. Since conventional bat study methods require intensive field work, the prediction of bat activity might prove useful by anticipating activity patterns and estimating attractiveness concomitant with the wind farm location. A novel framework was developed, based on the stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) principles, to predict bat activity on mountain ridges with wind farms. We illustrate the framework application using regional data from North Portugal by merging information from several environmental monitoring programmes associated with diverse wind energy facilities that enable integrating the multifactorial influences of meteorological conditions, land cover and geographical variables on bat activity patterns. Output from this innovative methodology can anticipate episodes of exceptional bat activity, which, if correlated with collision probability, can be used to guide wind farm management strategy such as halting wind turbines during hazardous periods. If properly calibrated with regional gradients of environmental variables from mountain ridges with windfarms, the proposed methodology can be used as a complementary tool in environmental impact assessments and ecological monitoring, using predicted bat activity to assist decision making concerning the future location of wind farms and the implementation of effective mitigation measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The costs of avoiding environmental impacts from shale-gas surface infrastructure.

PubMed

Milt, Austin W; Gagnolet, Tamara D; Armsworth, Paul R

2016-12-01

Growing energy demand has increased the need to manage conflicts between energy production and the environment. As an example, shale-gas extraction requires substantial surface infrastructure, which fragments habitats, erodes soils, degrades freshwater systems, and displaces rare species. Strategic planning of shale-gas infrastructure can reduce trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, but the specific nature of these trade-offs is not known. We estimated the cost of avoiding impacts from land-use change on forests, wetlands, rare species, and streams from shale-energy development within leaseholds. We created software for optimally siting shale-gas surface infrastructure to minimize its environmental impacts at reasonable construction cost. We visually assessed sites before infrastructure optimization to test whether such inspection could be used to predict whether impacts could be avoided at the site. On average, up to 38% of aggregate environmental impacts of infrastructure could be avoided for 20% greater development costs by spatially optimizing infrastructure. However, we found trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs among sites. In visual inspections, we often distinguished between sites that could be developed to avoid impacts at relatively low cost (29%) and those that could not (20%). Reductions in a metric of aggregate environmental impact could be largely attributed to potential displacement of rare species, sedimentation, and forest fragmentation. Planners and regulators can estimate and use heterogeneous trade-offs among development sites to create industry-wide improvements in environmental performance and do so at reasonable costs by, for example, leveraging low-cost avoidance of impacts at some sites to offset others. This could require substantial effort, but the results and software we provide can facilitate the process. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karlson, Mårten, E-mail: mkarlso@kth.se; Mörtberg, Ulla, E-mail: mortberg@kth.se; Balfors, Berit, E-mail: balfors@kth.se

Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, andmore » 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized but not analysed.« less

Benchmarking performance: Environmental impact statements in Egypt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Badr, El-Sayed A., E-mail: ebadr@mans.edu.e; Zahran, Ashraf A., E-mail: ashraf_zahran@yahoo.co; Cashmore, Matthew, E-mail: m.cashmore@uea.ac.u

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) was formally introduced in Egypt in 1994. This short paper evaluates 'how well' the EIA process is working in practice in Egypt, by reviewing the quality of 45 environmental impact statements (EISs) produced between 2000 and 2007 for a variety of project types. The Lee and Colley review package was used to assess the quality of the selected EISs. About 69% of the EISs sampled were found to be of a satisfactory quality. An assessment of the performance of different elements of the EIA process indicates that descriptive tasks tend to be performed better than scientificmore » tasks. The quality of core elements of EIA (e.g., impact prediction, significance evaluation, scoping and consideration of alternatives) appears to be particularly problematic. Variables that influence the quality of EISs are identified and a number of broad recommendations are made for improving the effectiveness of the EIA system.« less

Consequences of Predicted or Actual Asteroid Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. R.

2003-12-01

Earth impact by an asteroid could have enormous physical and environmental consequences. Impactors larger than 2 km diameter could be so destructive as to threaten civilization. Since such events greatly exceed any other natural or man-made catastrophe, much extrapolation is necessary just to understand environmental implications (e.g. sudden global cooling, tsunami magnitude, toxic effects). Responses of vital elements of the ecosystem (e.g. agriculture) and of human society to such an impact are conjectural. For instance, response to the Blackout of 2003 was restrained, but response to 9/11 terrorism was arguably exaggerated and dysfunctional; would society be fragile or robust in the face of global catastrophe? Even small impacts, or predictions of impacts (accurate or faulty), could generate disproportionate responses, especially if news media reports are hyped or inaccurate or if responsible entities (e.g. military organizations in regions of conflict) are inadequately aware of the phenomenology of small impacts. Asteroid impact is the one geophysical hazard of high potential consequence with which we, fortunately, have essentially no historical experience. It is thus important that decision makers familiarize themselves with the hazard and that society (perhaps using a formal procedure, like a National Academy of Sciences study) evaluate the priority of addressing the hazard by (a) further telescopic searches for dangerous but still-undiscovered asteroids and (b) development of mitigation strategies (including deflection of an oncoming asteroid and on- Earth civil defense). I exemplify these issues by discussing several representative cases that span the range of parameters. Many of the specific physical consequences of impact involve effects like those of other geophysical disasters (flood, fire, earthquake, etc.), but the psychological and sociological aspects of predicted and actual impacts are distinctive. Standard economic cost/benefit analyses may not apply due to the exceptional rarity of major impacts.

Temporal scale dependent interactions between multiple environmental disturbances in microcosm ecosystems.

PubMed

Garnier, Aurélie; Pennekamp, Frank; Lemoine, Mélissa; Petchey, Owen L

2017-12-01

Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods, and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience, and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive, or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short term (i.e. resistance); although no other effects or interactions were statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive, or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting fire severity using surface fuels and moisture

Treesearch

Pamela G. Sikkink; Robert E. Keane

2012-01-01

Fire severity classifications have been used extensively in fire management over the last 30 years to describe specific environmental or ecological impacts of fire on fuels, vegetation, wildlife, and soils in recently burned areas. New fire severity classifications need to be more objective, predictive, and ultimately more useful to fire management and planning. Our...

Our Changing Planet: The FY 1993 US Global Change Research Program. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, a supplement to the US President's fiscal year 1993 budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The U.S. Global Change Reasearch Program (USGCRP) was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY-1990 Budget to help develop sound national and international policies related to global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The USGCRP is implemented through a priority-driven scientific research agenda that is designed to be integrated, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary. It is designed explicitly to address scientific uncertainties in such areas as climate change, ozone depletion, changes in terrestrial and marine productivity, global water and energy cycles, sea level changes, the impact of global changes on human health and activities, and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Earth system. The USGCRP addresses three parallel but interconnected streams of activity: documenting global change (observations); enhancing understanding of key processes (process research); and predicting global and regional environmental change (integrated modeling and prediction).

Draft Environmental Impact Statement. MX Deployment Area Selection and Land Withdrawal/Acquisition DEIS. Volume II. Comparative Analysis of Alternatives.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

would increase recreational activities, including ORV use and poaching . The sum of direct and indirect impacts on this species could be significant...months, and increased policing for poaching could reduce the long-term impacts to insignificant or even positive levels. No impacts would be predicted...comparable species found in five counties. Short-term impacts are expected from poaching and ORVs. The prairie chicken will likely reoccupy habitat

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Alpers, Charles N.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma A.

2016-01-01

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

Predicting the Use of Public Transportation: A Case Study from Putrajaya, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Borhan, Muhamad Nazri; Mohd Akhir, Norliza; Mat Yazid, Muhamad Razuhanafi; Ismail, Amiruddin; Rahmat, Riza Atiq

2014-01-01

Putrajaya is a new federal administrative capital of Malaysia which has been set to achieve a 70% share of all travels by public transport in the city area. However, the current modal split between the public transport and private transport is 15 : 85. In order to understand travelers' willingness to use the public transport, a conceptual model has been developed to determine the factors that affect them to use the public transport instead of travelling in their own cars. Various variables such as service quality, environmental impact, attitude, and behavior intention were analyzed and tested using structural equation model (SEM). Results indicate that the service quality and attitude are found to have positive effects on the behavioral intention of taking the public transport. Other than this, this study also shows that the service quality and environmental impact have some positive influences on the attitude to using the public transport. However, environmental impact has no significant, positive, and direct effect on behavioral intention. The results of this study demonstrate that the model that was developed is useful in predicting the public transport and it could provide a more complete understanding of behavioral intention towards public transport use. PMID:25110744

Predicting the use of public transportation: a case study from Putrajaya, Malaysia.

PubMed

Borhan, Muhamad Nazri; Syamsunur, Deprizon; Akhir, Norliza Mohd; Yazid, Muhamad Razuhanafi Mat; Ismail, Amiruddin; Rahmat, Riza Atiq

2014-01-01

Putrajaya is a new federal administrative capital of Malaysia which has been set to achieve a 70% share of all travels by public transport in the city area. However, the current modal split between the public transport and private transport is 15:85. In order to understand travelers' willingness to use the public transport, a conceptual model has been developed to determine the factors that affect them to use the public transport instead of travelling in their own cars. Various variables such as service quality, environmental impact, attitude, and behavior intention were analyzed and tested using structural equation model (SEM). Results indicate that the service quality and attitude are found to have positive effects on the behavioral intention of taking the public transport. Other than this, this study also shows that the service quality and environmental impact have some positive influences on the attitude to using the public transport. However, environmental impact has no significant, positive, and direct effect on behavioral intention. The results of this study demonstrate that the model that was developed is useful in predicting the public transport and it could provide a more complete understanding of behavioral intention towards public transport use.

Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

2010-01-01

Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Swinton, S.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.

2013-03-01

This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy,more » rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.« less

Adoption of Agri-Environmental Measures by Organic Farmers: The Role of Interpersonal Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unay Gailhard, Ilkay; Bavorová, Miroslava; Pirscher, Frauke

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of interpersonal communication on the adoption of agri-environmental measures (AEM) by organic farmers in Germany. Methodology: The study used the logit model to predict the probability of adoption behaviour, and Social Network Analysis (SNA) was conducted to analyse the question of…

A retrospective view of the quality of the fauna component of the Olympic Dam Project Environmental Impact Statement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Read, J.L.

1994-06-01

The merits of the fauna section of the Olympic Dam Project Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) are discussed. The values of different survey methods and monitoring organisms used in this document are evaluated following 10 years of fauna monitoring and research subsequent to the preparation of the EIS. The pilot fauna reconnaissance was found to be of little value, although the associated literature review formed an integral part of the EIS. Over 95% of all amphibian, reptile and bird species recorded at Olympic Dam were confirmed or predicted to occur in the EIS. Mammal predictions were less accurate because of themore » sparse populations and irruptive nature of several arid-zone species. Prediction and monitoring of rare species were demonstrably difficult. The Olympic Dam Project EIS was found in general to be an accurate and useful document. However, it is suggested that more emphasis be placed on establishing monitoring programmes for future EISs, particularly for invertebrates. 35 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.« less

Coping with daily thermal variability: behavioural performance of an ectotherm model in a warming world.

PubMed

Rojas, José M; Castillo, Simón B; Folguera, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastián; Bozinovic, Francisco

2014-01-01

Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24 ± 0, 24 ± 4 and 24 ± 8 °C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, --i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance.

Coping with Daily Thermal Variability: Behavioural Performance of an Ectotherm Model in a Warming World

PubMed Central

Rojas, José M.; Castillo, Simón B.; Folguera, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastián; Bozinovic, Francisco

2014-01-01

Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24±0, 24±4 and 24±8°C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, – i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance. PMID:25207653

Risky business: The impact of climate and climate variability on human population dynamics in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Ariane; Kageyama, Masa; Latombe, Guilllaume; Fasel, Marc; Vrac, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; James, Patrick M. A.

2017-05-01

The extent to which climate change has affected the course of human evolution is an enduring question. The ability to maintain spatially extensive social networks and a fluid social structure allows human foragers to ;map onto; the landscape, mitigating the impact of ecological risk and conferring resilience. But what are the limits of resilience and to which environmental variables are foraging populations sensitive? We address this question by testing the impact of a suite of environmental variables, including climate variability, on the distribution of human populations in Western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Climate variability affects the distribution of plant and animal resources unpredictably, creating an element of risk for foragers for whom mobility comes at a cost. We produce a model of habitat suitability that allows us to generate predictions about the probable distribution of human populations and discuss the implications of these predictions for the structure of human populations and their social and cultural evolution during the LGM.

A network extension of species occupancy models in a patchy environment applied to the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berlow, Eric L.; Knapp, Roland A.; Ostoja, Steven M.; Williams, Richard J.; McKenny, Heather; Matchett, John R.; Guo, Qinghau; Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick; Brooks, Matthew L.; Joppa, Lucas

2013-01-01

A central challenge of conservation biology is using limited data to predict rare species occurrence and identify conservation areas that play a disproportionate role in regional persistence. Where species occupy discrete patches in a landscape, such predictions require data about environmental quality of individual patches and the connectivity among high quality patches. We present a novel extension to species occupancy modeling that blends traditionalpredictions of individual patch environmental quality with network analysis to estimate connectivity characteristics using limited survey data. We demonstrate this approach using environmental and geospatial attributes to predict observed occupancy patterns of the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus (= Bufo) canorus) across >2,500 meadows in Yosemite National Park (USA). A. canorus, a Federal Proposed Species, breeds in shallow water associated with meadows. Our generalized linear model (GLM) accurately predicted ~84% of true presence-absence data on a subset of data withheld for testing. The predicted environmental quality of each meadow was iteratively ‘boosted’ by the quality of neighbors within dispersal distance. We used this park-wide meadow connectivity network to estimate the relative influence of an individual Meadow’s ‘environmental quality’ versus its ‘network quality’ to predict: a) clusters of high quality breeding meadows potentially linked by dispersal, b) breeding meadows with high environmental quality that are isolated from other such meadows, c) breeding meadows with lower environmental quality where long-term persistence may critically depend on the network neighborhood, and d) breeding meadows with the biggest impact on park-wide breeding patterns. Combined with targeted data on dispersal, genetics, disease, and other potential stressors, these results can guide designation of core conservation areas for A. canorus in Yosemite National Park.

Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Space Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (SNTP) program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1991-09-01

A program has been proposed to develop the technology and demonstrate the feasibility of a high-temperature particle bed reactor (PBR) propulsion system to be used to power an advanced second stage nuclear rocket engine. The purpose of this Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) is to assess the potential environmental impacts of component development and testing, construction of ground test facilities, and ground testing. Major issues and goals of the program include the achievement and control of predicted nuclear power levels; the development of materials that can withstand the extremely high operating temperatures and hydrogen flow environments; and the reliable control of cryogenic hydrogen and hot gaseous hydrogen propellant. The testing process is designed to minimize radiation exposure to the environment. Environmental impact and mitigation planning are included for the following areas of concern: (1) Population and economy; (2) Land use and infrastructure; (3) Noise; (4) Cultural resources; (5) Safety (non-nuclear); (6) Waste; (7) Topography; (8) Geology; (9) Seismic activity; (10) Water resources; (11) Meteorology/Air quality; (12) Biological resources; (13) Radiological normal operations; (14) Radiological accidents; (15) Soils; and (16) Wildlife habitats.

Predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J.; Dall, Sasha R. X.; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Mace, Georgina M.; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K. J.; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M. J.; Benton, Tim G.

2013-01-01

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive. PMID:24089332

Predictive systems ecology.

PubMed

Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

2013-11-22

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Integrating fuzzy logic, optimization, and GIS for ecological impact assessments.

PubMed

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A; Juárez, Lourdes; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo

2002-09-01

Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.

Integrating Fuzzy Logic, Optimization, and GIS for Ecological Impact Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Juárez, Lourdes; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo

2002-09-01

Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.

Coal Extraction - Environmental Prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cecil, C. Blaine; Tewalt, Susan J.

2002-01-01

Coal from the Appalachian region has supplied energy to the Nation for more than 200 years. Appalachian coal fueled America through a civil war and helped win two world wars. Appalachian coal has also provided fuel for keeping America warm in the winter and cool in the summer and has served as the basis for the steel, automobile, organic chemicals, chlorine, and aluminum industries. These benefits have not come without environmental costs, however. Coal extraction and utilization have had significant environmental impacts.

Impact of input data uncertainty on environmental exposure assessment models: A case study for electromagnetic field modelling from mobile phone base stations.

PubMed

Beekhuizen, Johan; Heuvelink, Gerard B M; Huss, Anke; Bürgi, Alfred; Kromhout, Hans; Vermeulen, Roel

2014-11-01

With the increased availability of spatial data and computing power, spatial prediction approaches have become a standard tool for exposure assessment in environmental epidemiology. However, such models are largely dependent on accurate input data. Uncertainties in the input data can therefore have a large effect on model predictions, but are rarely quantified. With Monte Carlo simulation we assessed the effect of input uncertainty on the prediction of radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) from mobile phone base stations at 252 receptor sites in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The impact on ranking and classification was determined by computing the Spearman correlations and weighted Cohen's Kappas (based on tertiles of the RF-EMF exposure distribution) between modelled values and RF-EMF measurements performed at the receptor sites. The uncertainty in modelled RF-EMF levels was large with a median coefficient of variation of 1.5. Uncertainty in receptor site height, building damping and building height contributed most to model output uncertainty. For exposure ranking and classification, the heights of buildings and receptor sites were the most important sources of uncertainty, followed by building damping, antenna- and site location. Uncertainty in antenna power, tilt, height and direction had a smaller impact on model performance. We quantified the effect of input data uncertainty on the prediction accuracy of an RF-EMF environmental exposure model, thereby identifying the most important sources of uncertainty and estimating the total uncertainty stemming from potential errors in the input data. This approach can be used to optimize the model and better interpret model output. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

Joint Conference on Sensing of Environmental Pollutants, 4th, New Orleans, La., November 6-11, 1977, Proceedings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Papers are presented on such topics as environmental chemistry, the effects of sulfur compounds on air quality, the prediction and monitoring of biological effects caused by environmental pollutants, environmental indicators, the satellite remote sensing of air pollution, weather and climate modification by pollution, and the monitoring and assessment of radioactive pollutants. Consideration is also given to empirical and quantitative modeling of air quality, disposal of hazardous and nontoxic materials, sensing and assessment of water quality, pollution source monitoring, and assessment of some environmental impacts of fossil and nuclear fuels.

Public health research: lost in translation or speaking the wrong language?

PubMed

Kansagra, Susan M; Farley, Thomas A

2011-12-01

Public health leaders, like physicians, need to make decisions that impact health based on strong evidence. To generate useful evidence for public health leaders, research must focus on interventions that have potential to impact population-level health. Often policy and environmental changes are the interventions with the greatest potential impact on population health, but studying these is difficult because of limitations in the methods typically used and emphasized in health research. To create useful evidence for policy and environmental interventions, other research methods are needed, including observational studies, the use of surveillance data for evaluation, and predictive mathematical modeling. More emphasis is needed on these types of study designs by researchers, funding agencies, and scientific journals.

Evaluation of environmental impact produced by different economic activities with the global pollution index.

PubMed

Zaharia, Carmen

2012-07-01

The paper analyses the environment pollution state in different case studies of economic activities (i.e. co-generation electric and thermal power production, iron profile manufacturing, cement processing, waste landfilling, and wood furniture manufacturing), evaluating mainly the environmental cumulative impacts (e.g. cumulative impact against the health of the environment and different life forms). The status of the environment (air, water resources, soil, and noise) is analysed with respect to discharges such as gaseous discharges in the air, final effluents discharged in natural receiving basins or sewerage system, and discharges onto the soil together with the principal pollutants expressed by different environmental indicators corresponding to each specific productive activity. The alternative methodology of global pollution index (I (GP)*) for quantification of environmental impacts is applied. Environmental data analysis permits the identification of potential impact, prediction of significant impact, and evaluation of cumulative impact on a commensurate scale by evaluation scores (ES(i)) for discharge quality, and global effect to the environment pollution state by calculation of the global pollution index (I (GP)*). The I (GP)* values for each productive unit (i.e. 1.664-2.414) correspond to an 'environment modified by industrial/economic activity within admissible limits, having potential of generating discomfort effects'. The evaluation results are significant in view of future development of each productive unit and sustain the economic production in terms of environment protection with respect to a preventive environment protection scheme and continuous measures of pollution control.

a Maximum Entropy Model of the Bearded Capuchin Monkey Habitat Incorporating Topography and Spectral Unmixing Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, A. M.; Bernardes, S.; Nibbelink, N.; Biondi, L.; Presotto, A.; Fragaszy, D. M.; Madden, M.

2012-07-01

Movement patterns of bearded capuchin monkeys (Cebus (Sapajus) libidinosus) in northeastern Brazil are likely impacted by environmental features such as elevation, vegetation density, or vegetation type. Habitat preferences of these monkeys provide insights regarding the impact of environmental features on species ecology and the degree to which they incorporate these features in movement decisions. In order to evaluate environmental features influencing movement patterns and predict areas suitable for movement, we employed a maximum entropy modelling approach, using observation points along capuchin monkey daily routes as species presence points. We combined these presence points with spatial data on important environmental features from remotely sensed data on land cover and topography. A spectral mixing analysis procedure was used to generate fraction images that represent green vegetation, shade and soil of the study area. A Landsat Thematic Mapper scene of the area of study was geometrically and atmospherically corrected and used as input in a Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) procedure and a linear spectral unmixing approach was used to generate the fraction images. These fraction images and elevation were the environmental layer inputs for our logistic MaxEnt model of capuchin movement. Our models' predictive power (test AUC) was 0.775. Areas of high elevation (>450 m) showed low probabilities of presence, and percent green vegetation was the greatest overall contributor to model AUC. This work has implications for predicting daily movement patterns of capuchins in our field site, as suitability values from our model may relate to habitat preference and facility of movement.

Functional genomics to assess biological responses to marine pollution at physiological and evolutionary timescales: toward a vision of predictive ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Reid, Noah M; Whitehead, Andrew

2016-09-01

Marine pollution is ubiquitous, and is one of the key factors influencing contemporary marine biodiversity worldwide. To protect marine biodiversity, how do we surveil, document and predict the short- and long-term impacts of pollutants on at-risk species? Modern genomics tools offer high-throughput, information-rich and increasingly cost-effective approaches for characterizing biological responses to environmental stress, and are important tools within an increasing sophisticated kit for surveiling and assessing impacts of pollutants on marine species. Through the lens of recent research in marine killifish, we illustrate how genomics tools may be useful for screening chemicals and pollutants for biological activity and to reveal specific mechanisms of action. The high dimensionality of transcriptomic responses enables their usage as highly specific fingerprints of exposure, and these fingerprints can be used to diagnose environmental problems. We also emphasize that molecular pathways recruited to respond at physiological timescales are the same pathways that may be targets for natural selection during chronic exposure to pollutants. Gene complement and sequence variation in those pathways can be related to variation in sensitivity to environmental pollutants within and among species. Furthermore, allelic variation associated with evolved tolerance in those pathways could be tracked to estimate the pace of environmental health decline and recovery. We finish by integrating these paradigms into a vision of how genomics approaches could anchor a modernized framework for advancing the predictive capacity of environmental and ecotoxicological science. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stream Health Sensitivity to Landscape Changes due to Bioenergy Crops Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nejadhashemi, A.; Einheuser, M. D.; Woznicki, S. A.

2012-12-01

Global demand for bioenergy has increased due to uncertainty in oil markets, environmental concerns, and expected increases in energy consumption worldwide. To develop a sustainable biofuel production strategy, the adverse environmental impacts of bioenergy crops expansion should be understood. To study the impact of bioenergy crops expansion on stream health, the adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was used to predict macroinvertebrate and fish stream health measures. The Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), Family Index of Biological Integrity (Family IBI), and Number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT taxa) were used as macroinvertebrate measures, while the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) was used for fish. A high-resolution biophysical model built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to obtain water quantity and quality variables for input into the ANFIS stream health predictive models. Twenty unique crop rotations were developed to examine impacts of bioenergy crops expansion on stream health in the Saginaw Bay basin. Traditional intensive row crops generated more pollution than current landuse conditions, while second-generation biofuel crops associated with less intensive agricultural activities resulted in water quality improvement. All three macroinvertebrate measures were negatively impacted during intensive row crop productions but improvement was predicted when producing perennial crops. However, the expansion of native grass, switchgrass, and miscanthus production resulted in reduced IBI relative to first generation row crops. This study demonstrates that ecosystem complexity requires examination of multiple stream health measures to avoid potential adverse impacts of landuse change on stream health.

Ecological Trait Composition of Freshwater Fish Across Gradients of Environmental Variability in North-Eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennard, M. J.; Pusey, B. J.; Arthington, A. H.

2005-05-01

North-eastern Australia encompasses 18o of latitude, monsoonal/tropical to sub-tropical/temperate climates, geomorphologically diverse rivers, and flow regimes with markedly varied seasonality, constancy and predictability. Fish assemblages in the region vary in relation to the predictability of aquatic habitat availability and other topographic, climatic and/or biogeographic factors. This paper examines how environmental, biogeographic and phylogenetic factors may constrain ecological trait composition at local and regional scales. We derived 17 categories of ecological traits to describe the morphology, behaviour, habitat, life history and trophic characteristics of 114 fish species from 64 river basins. Trait composition varied substantially across the region. The number of riffle dwelling species, maximum size and longevity of fishes was greater in the hydrologically predictable and constant rivers of the Wet Tropics region than in more unpredictable or seasonal environments. The importance of herbivory was also greater in the tropics. Historical biogeographic and phylogenetic factors may confound our ability to understand the role of environmental factors in determining spatial variation in ecological trait composition. Understanding the functional linkages between environmental drivers of fish species distributions via their ecological characteristics should provide a foundation for predicting future impacts of environmental change in a region of Australia subject to increasing human pressures.

A holistic model for the selection of environmental assessment indicators to assess the impact of industrialization on indigenous health.

PubMed

Kryzanowski, Julie A; McIntyre, Lynn

2011-01-01

Mainstream environmental assessment (EA) methodologies often inadequately address health, social and cultural impacts of concern for Canadian indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Our objective is to present a holistic, culturally-appropriate framework for the selection of indigenous health indicators for baseline health assessment, impact prediction, or monitoring of impacts over time. We used a critical population health approach to explore the determinants of health and health inequities in indigenous communities and conceptualize the pathways by which industrialization affects these determinants. We integrated and extended key elements from three indigenous health frameworks into a new holistic model for the selection of indigenous EA indicators. The holistic model conceptualizes individual and community determinants of health within external social, economic and political contexts and thus provides a comprehensive framework for selecting indicators of indigenous health. Indigenous health is the product of interactions among multiple determinants of health and contexts. Potential applications are discussed using case study examples involving indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Industrialization can worsen indigenous health inequities by perpetuating the health, social and cultural impacts of historic environmental dispossession. To mitigate impacts, EA should explicitly recognize linkages between environmental dispossession and the determinants of health and health inequities and meaningfully involve indigenous communities in the process.

Management applications of discontinuity theory

EPA Science Inventory

1.Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management...

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

DOE PAGES

Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

2016-06-06

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, wemore » were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.« less

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies.

PubMed

DeRolph, Christopher R; Schramm, Michael P; Bevelhimer, Mark S

2016-10-01

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multi-faceted explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements are functions of a range of factors, from biophysical to socio-political. Project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bevelhimer, Mark S.; DeRolph, Christopher R.; Schramm, Michael P.

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, wemore » were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.« less

Integrated modeling approach for optimal management of water, energy and food security nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

2017-03-01

Water, energy and food (WEF) are inextricably interrelated. Effective planning and management of limited WEF resources to meet current and future socioeconomic demands for sustainable development is challenging. WEF production/delivery may also produce environmental impacts; as a result, green-house-gas emission control will impact WEF nexus management as well. Nexus management for WEF security necessitates integrated tools for predictive analysis that are capable of identifying the tradeoffs among various sectors, generating cost-effective planning and management strategies and policies. To address these needs, we have developed an integrated model analysis framework and tool called WEFO. WEFO provides a multi-period socioeconomic model for predicting how to satisfy WEF demands based on model inputs representing productions costs, socioeconomic demands, and environmental controls. WEFO is applied to quantitatively analyze the interrelationships and trade-offs among system components including energy supply, electricity generation, water supply-demand, food production as well as mitigation of environmental impacts. WEFO is demonstrated to solve a hypothetical nexus management problem consistent with real-world management scenarios. Model parameters are analyzed using global sensitivity analysis and their effects on total system cost are quantified. The obtained results demonstrate how these types of analyses can be helpful for decision-makers and stakeholders to make cost-effective decisions for optimal WEF management.

Comparison of hydro-environmental impacts for ebb-only and two-way generation for a Severn Barrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadian, Reza; Falconer, Roger A.; Bockelmann-Evans, Bettina

2014-10-01

Marine renewable energy is playing an increasing significant role in many parts of the world, mainly due to a rise in the awareness of climate change, and its detrimental effects, and the increasing cost of natural resources. The Severn Estuary, located between South West England and South Wales, has a tidal range of up to 14 m which makes it the second highest tidal range in the world. There are a number of barrage proposals amongst various marine renewable energy schemes proposed to be built in the estuary. The Cardiff-Weston STPG (Severn Tidal Power Group) Barrage, which would be one of the world's largest tidal renewable energy schemes if built, is one of the most publicised schemes to-date. This barrage would generate about 17 TWh/annum of power, which is approximately 5% of the UK's electricity consumption, whilst causing significant hydro-environmental and ecological impact on the estuary. This study mainly focuses on investigating the hydro-environmental impacts of the STPG barrage for the option of two-way generation, and compares this with the commonly investigated option of ebb-only generation. The impacts of the barrage were modelled by implementing a linked 1-D/2-D hydro-environmental model, with the capability of modelling several key environmental processes. The model predictions show that the hydro-environmental impacts of the barrage on the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel, such as changes in the maximum velocity and reduction in suspended sediment and bacteria levels, were less significant for the two-way generation scheme when compared with the corresponding impacts for ebb-only generation.

Public perceptions of the response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: personal experiences, information sources, and social context.

PubMed

Safford, Thomas G; Ulrich, Jessica D; Hamilton, Lawrence C

2012-12-30

The 2010 British Petroleum (BP) Deepwater Horizon oil spill highlighted long-standing questions about energy exploration and its social and environmental implications. Sociologists studying environmental disasters have documented the social impacts resulting from these events and dissatisfaction with government and industry responses. In this paper, we use data from a survey conducted during the Gulf of Mexico oil spill to examine how Louisiana and Florida residents' social backgrounds, experiences with the spill, and trust in information sources predict their perceptions of governmental and BP response efforts. We find that direct personal impacts and compensation strongly influence the evaluations of responding organizations. Age and place of residence also predict such assessments. Finally, levels of confidence in television news and BP as sources of information appear to shape Gulf Coast residents' opinions about the work of organizations responding to the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Sampling Methodologies for Noise Pollution Assessment and the Impact on the Population.

PubMed

Rey Gozalo, Guillermo; Barrigón Morillas, Juan Miguel

2016-05-11

Today, noise pollution is an increasing environmental stressor. Noise maps are recognised as the main tool for assessing and managing environmental noise, but their accuracy largely depends on the sampling method used. The sampling methods most commonly used by different researchers (grid, legislative road types and categorisation methods) were analysed and compared using the city of Talca (Chile) as a test case. The results show that the stratification of sound values in road categories has a significantly lower prediction error and a higher capacity for discrimination and prediction than in the legislative road types used by the Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications in Chile. Also, the use of one or another method implies significant differences in the assessment of population exposure to noise pollution. Thus, the selection of a suitable method for performing noise maps through measurements is essential to achieve an accurate assessment of the impact of noise pollution on the population.

A Unified Theory of Impact Crises and Mass Extinctions: Quantitative Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.; Haggerty, Bruce M.; Pagano, Thomas C.

1997-01-01

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting of large-body impacts on the Earth derive from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing large-scale environmental disasters, predict that impacts of objects greater than or equal to 5 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10 (exp 7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of greater than or equal to 10 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10(exp 8) Mt Events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10 (exp 6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record.

An application of a vulnerability index to oil spill modeling in the Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaBelle, R.P.; Rainey, Gail; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

An analysis was made of the relative impact to the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico from proposed Federal Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas leasing activity. An oil spill trajectory model was coupled with a land segment vulnerability characterization to predict the risks to the shoreline. Such a technique allows spatial and temporal variability in oil spill sensitivity to be represented and combined with the likelihood of oil spill contact to specific coastal segments in the study area. Predicted relative impact was greatest along the coastlines of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Useful information is provided for environmental impact analysis, as well as oil spill response planning.

Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Tom R.; Harasti, David; Smith, Stephen D. A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.

2016-11-01

Climate change induced sea level rise will affect shallow estuarine habitats, which are already under threat from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Here, we present the results of modelling to predict potential impacts of climate change associated processes on seagrass distributions. We use a novel application of relative environmental suitability (RES) modelling to examine relationships between variables of physiological importance to seagrasses (light availability, wave exposure, and current flow) and seagrass distributions within 5 estuarine embayments. Models were constructed separately for Posidonia australis and Zostera muelleri subsp. capricorni using seagrass data from Port Stephens estuary, New South Wales, Australia. Subsequent testing of models used independent datasets from four other estuarine embayments (Wallis Lake, Lake Illawarra, Merimbula Lake, and Pambula Lake) distributed along 570 km of the east Australian coast. Relative environmental suitability models provided adequate predictions for seagrass distributions within Port Stephens and the other estuarine embayments, indicating that they may have broad regional application. Under the predictions of RES models, both sea level rise and increased turbidity are predicted to cause substantial seagrass losses in deeper estuarine areas, resulting in a net shoreward movement of seagrass beds. Seagrass species distribution models developed in this study provide a valuable tool to predict future shifts in estuarine seagrass distributions, allowing identification of areas for protection, monitoring and rehabilitation.

The US economic impacts of climate change and the costs of inaction : a review and assessment by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-10-01

This report presents a review of economic studies for the United States and relates them to predicted impacts of climate change. The summary findings are organized by region and identify the key sectors likely affected by climate change, the main imp...

Dose prediction in Japan for nuclear test explosions in North Korea.

PubMed

Takada, Jun

2008-11-01

The impact on Japan of the underground test conducted in North Korea on October 9, 2006 is examined. By the use of the results of modelling assessment and environmental monitoring, it is concluded that there was no radiation impact on Japan. This suggests a safely conducted underground nuclear test or an explosion with a very low output.

Doctoral Social Work Education: Responding to Trends in Society and the Academy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cnaan, Ram A.; Ghose, Toorjo

2018-01-01

This article is intended to forecast major environmental changes that may impact social work doctoral education and assess what should be done in anticipation of these changes. We apply an open system and future studies perspective to guide our work. We present a set of predicted societal changes that will impact social work as a profession and…

Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect

Treesearch

James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

2009-01-01

It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few, if any, models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a...

Review of nitrogen fate models applicable to forest landscapes in the Southern U.S.

Treesearch

D. M. Amatya; C. G. Rossi; A. Saleh; Z. Dai; M. A. Youssef; R. G. Williams; D. D. Bosch; G. M. Chescheir; G. Sun; R. W. Skaggs; C. C. Trettin; E. D. Vance; J. E. Nettles; S. Tian

2013-01-01

Assessing the environmental impacts of fertilizer nitrogen (N) used to increase productivity in managed forests is complex due to a wide range of abiotic and biotic factors affecting its forms and movement. Models developed to predict fertilizer N fate (e.g., cycling processes) and water quality impacts vary widely in their design, scope, and potential application. We...

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

2010-07-13

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

The effectiveness of the mitigation hierarchy in environmental impact studies on marine ecosystems: A case study in France

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacob, Céline, E-mail: celine.jacob@cefe.cnrs.fr; CREOCEAN, Les Belvédères, Bâtiment B, 128, Avenue de Fès, 34080 Montpellier; Pioch, Sylvain, E-mail: sylvain.pioch@gmail.com

While the development of maritime economic activity is increasingly encouraged, the consideration of its impacts constitutes a real challenge. The limitations of the implementation of the mitigation hierarchy have been widely discussed in scientific literature, yet data on marine biodiversity offset practices remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the use of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) as suitable instruments to achieve the No Net Loss objective. Drawing on a French approach developed for the initial assessment of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive, we examined the pressures and impacts related to various marine development projects and the effectiveness of themore » mitigation hierarchy in limiting these. An analysis of 55 recent French environmental impact studies showed that only 7% of the proposed measures had the aim of offsetting predicted degradation of sites of remarkable biodiversity. This can be partly explained by the lack of a clear definition of ‘significant impact’, which varies greatly depending on what is impacted, in turn allowing socio-economic activities to benefit more easily from offset. Furthermore, offsetting does not always constitute the final step of the mitigation hierarchy, highlighting the need to reinforce avoidance and reduction steps. Although we acknowledge the role of EIA in mitigating the negative impacts of development projects, synergies with other European marine environmental policies such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the Maritime Spatial Planning directive (MSP) should be developed in order to improve current practices. - Highlights: • Avoidance measures were not well represented in the Environmental Impact Assessments studied. • Few significant residual impacts and measures to offset these were described. • Common biodiversity did not benefit from offset measures. • The equivalency of proposed marine offsets is questionable.« less

Prediction of biological integrity based on environmental similarity--revealing the scale-dependent link between study area and top environmental predictors.

PubMed

Bedoya, David; Manolakos, Elias S; Novotny, Vladimir

2011-03-01

Indices of Biological integrity (IBI) are considered valid indicators of the overall health of a water body because the biological community is an endpoint within natural systems. However, prediction of biological integrity using information from multi-parameter environmental observations is a challenging problem due to the hierarchical organization of the natural environment, the existence of nonlinear inter-dependencies among variables as well as natural stochasticity and measurement noise. We present a method for predicting the Fish Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) using multiple environmental observations at the state-scale in Ohio. Instream (chemical and physical quality) and offstream parameters (regional and local upstream land uses, stream fragmentation, and point source density and intensity) are used for this purpose. The IBI predictions are obtained using the environmental site-similarity concept and following a simple to implement leave-one-out cross validation approach. An IBI prediction for a sampling site is calculated by averaging the observed IBI scores of observations clustered in the most similar branch of a dendrogram--a hierarchical clustering tree of environmental observations--built using the rest of the observations. The standardized Euclidean distance is used to assess dissimilarity between observations. The constructed predictive model was able to explain 61% of the IBI variability statewide. Stream fragmentation and regional land use explained 60% of the variability; the remaining 1% was explained by instream habitat quality. Metrics related to local land use, water quality, and point source density and intensity did not improve the predictive model at the state-scale. The impact of local environmental conditions was evaluated by comparing local characteristics between well- and mispredicted sites. Significant differences in local land use patterns and upstream fragmentation density explained some of the model's over-predictions. Local land use conditions explained some of the model's IBI under-predictions at the state-scale since none of the variables within this group were included in the best final predictive model. Under-predicted sites also had higher levels of downstream fragmentation. The proposed variables ranking and predictive modeling methodology is very well suited for the analysis of hierarchical environments, such as natural fresh water systems, with many cross-correlated environmental variables. It is computationally efficient, can be fully automated, does not make any pre-conceived assumptions on the variables interdependency structure (such as linearity), and it is able to rank variables in a database and generate IBI predictions using only non-parametric easy to implement hierarchical clustering. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ozone impact minimization through coordinated scheduling of turnaround operations from multiple olefin plants in an ozone nonattainment area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Sijie; Wang, Sujing; Xu, Qiang; Ho, Thomas

2018-03-01

Turnaround operations (start-up and shutdown) are critical operations in olefin plants, which emit large quantities of VOCs, NOx and CO. The emission has great potentials to impact the ozone level in ozone nonattainment areas. This study demonstrates a novel practice to minimize the ozone impact through coordinated scheduling of turnaround operations from multiple olefin plants located in Houston, Texas, an ozone nonattainment area. The study considered two olefin plants scheduled to conduct turnaround operations: one start-up and one shutdown, simultaneously on the same day within a five-hour window. Through dynamic simulations of the turnaround operations using ASPEN Plus Dynamics and air quality simulations using CAMx, the study predicts the ozone impact from the combined effect of the two turnaround operations under different starting-time scenarios. The simulations predict that the ozone impact from planned turnaround operations ranges from a maximum of 11.4 ppb to a minimum of 1.4 ppb. Hence, a reduction of up to 10.0 ppb can be achieved on a single day based on the selected two simulation days. This study demonstrates a cost-effective and environmentally benign ozone control practice for relevant stakeholders, including environmental agencies, regional plant operators, and local communities.

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides.

PubMed

Topping, Christopher John; Kjaer, Lene Jung; Hommen, Udo; Høye, Toke Thomas; Preuss, Thomas G; Sibly, Richard M; van Vliet, Peter

2014-07-01

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors. © 2014 SETAC.

Herbivore Impacts on Marsh Production Depend upon a Compensatory Continuum Mediated by Salinity Stress

PubMed Central

Long, Jeremy D.; Porturas, Laura D.

2014-01-01

Plant communities are disturbed by several stressors and they are expected to be further impacted by increasing anthropogenic stress. The consequences of these stressors will depend, in part, upon the ability of plants to compensate for herbivory. Previous studies found that herbivore impacts on plants can vary from negative to positive because of environmental control of plant compensatory responses, a.k.a. the Compensatory Continuum Hypothesis. While these influential studies enhanced our appreciation of the dynamic nature of plant-herbivore interactions, they largely focused on the impact of resource limitation. This bias limits our ability to predict how other environmental factors will shape the impact of herbivory. We examined the role of salinity stress on herbivory of salt marsh cordgrass, Spartina foliosa, by an herbivore previously hypothesized to influence the success of restoration projects (the scale insect, Haliaspis spartinae). Using a combination of field and mesocosm manipulations of scales and salinity, we measured how these factors affected Spartina growth and timing of senescence. In mesocosm studies, Spartina overcompensated for herbivory by growing taller shoots at low salinities but the impact of scales on plants switched from positive to neutral with increasing salinity stress. In field studies of intermediate salinities, scales reduced Spartina growth and increased the rate of senescence. Experimental salinity additions at this field site returned the impact of scales to neutral. Because salinity decreased scale densities, the switch in impact of scales on Spartina with increasing salinity was not simply a linear function of scale abundance. Thus, the impact of scales on primary production depended strongly upon environmental context because intermediate salinity stress prevented plant compensatory responses to herbivory. Understanding this context-dependency will be required if we are going to successfully predict the success of restoration efforts and the ecological consequences of anthropogenic disturbances. PMID:25310475

Problems with the application of hydrogeological science to regulation of Australian mining projects: Carmichael Mine and Doongmabulla Springs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currell, Matthew J.; Werner, Adrian D.; McGrath, Chris; Webb, John A.; Berkman, Michael

2017-05-01

Understanding and managing impacts from mining on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) and other groundwater users requires development of defensible science supported by adequate field data. This usually leads to the creation of predictive models and analysis of the likely impacts of mining and their accompanying uncertainties. The identification, monitoring and management of impacts on GDEs are often a key component of mine approvals, which need to consider and attempt to minimise the risks that negative impacts may arise. Here we examine a case study where approval for a large mining project in Australia (Carmichael Coal Mine) was challenged in court on the basis that it may result in more extensive impacts on a GDE (Doongmabulla Springs) of high ecological and cultural significance than predicted by the proponent. We show that throughout the environmental assessment and approval process, significant data gaps and scientific uncertainties remained unresolved. Evidence shows that the assumed conceptual hydrogeological model for the springs could be incorrect, and that at least one alternative conceptualisation (that the springs are dependent on a deep fault) is consistent with the available field data. Assumptions made about changes to spring flow as a consequence of mine-induced drawdown also appear problematic, with significant implications for the spring-fed wetlands. Despite the large scale of the project, it appears that critical scientific data required to resolve uncertainties and construct robust models of the springs' relationship to the groundwater system were lacking at the time of approval, contributing to uncertainty and conflict. For this reason, we recommend changes to the approval process that would require a higher standard of scientific information to be collected and reviewed, particularly in relation to key environmental assets during the environmental impact assessment process in future projects.

Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Luo, Zhenhua; Jiang, Zhigang; Tang, Songhua

2015-01-01

Climate change has significant impacts on species' distributions and diversity patterns. Understanding range shifts and changes in richness gradients under climate change is crucial for conservation. The Tibetan Plateau, home to wild yak, chiru, and kiang, contains a biome with many endemic ungulates. It is highly sensitive to climate change and a region that merits particular attention with regard to the impacts of global climate change on its biomes. Maximum entropy approaches were used to estimate current and future potential distributions, in response to climate change, for 22 ungulate species. We used three general circulation (MK3, HADCM3, MIROC3_2-MED) and three emissions scenarios (Bl, A1B, A2) to derive estimated future measurements of 14 environmental variables over three time periods (2020, 2050, 2080), and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period under two dispersal hypotheses (full and zero, respectively). This resulted in a total of 6160 prediction models. We found that these ungulates, on average, may lose 30-50% of their distributional areas, depending on the dispersal scenarios. In addition, 55-68% of the ungulate species were predicted to become locally endangered under the different dispersal assumptions, 23-32% to become locally critically endangered, and 4-7 endemic species to become globally endangered. Furthermore, ungulate species ranges may experience average poleward shifts of ~300 km. We also predict west-to-east reductions in species richness: southeastern mountainous areas currently have the highest species richness, but are predicted to face the greatest diversity losses, whereas the northern areas are predicted to see increasing numbers of ungulate species in the 21st century. Our study indicates much more severe range reductions of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau than those anticipated elsewhere in the world, and species richness patterns will change dramatically with climate change. For conservation, we suggest (1) securing existing protected areas, and (2) establishing new nature reserves to counterbalance climate change impacts.

Impact of European Union Legislation On The Wash Catchment, U.k.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daldorph, P.; Wheater, H.; Saunders, A.

A case study is presented which shows the impact of existing European Legislation (Urban Waste Water Directive, Nitrate Directive, Bathing Waters Directive, Habitats Directive) on aquatic nutrient concentrations in the 16112 km2 catchment area of The Wash in eastern England , including both the inland and coastal zones. Information is provided on the implementation process (administrative and economic) and the observed impacts of measures to reduce environmental nutrient levels. Impacts are compared with simulations of nutrients in the inland and coastal zones, and the modeling tools are further used to predict impacts of future management change, e.g. to meet possible requirements of the Water Framework Directive. The issues in setting future environmental targets and research needs to underpin this process are discussed in the context of developing river basin management plans to support the Common Implementation Strategy for the Water Framework Directive.

Preliminary Surficial Geology of the Dove Spring Off-Highway Vehicle Open Area, Mojave Desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David M.; Amoroso, Lee

2007-01-01

Introduction As part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring plan to evaluate the environmental impact of off-highway vehicle (OHV) use on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land in California, this report presents results of geologic studies in the Dove Spring OHV Open Area. This study produced baseline data, which when combined with historic and current patterns of land use, forms the basis for vegetation and wildlife monitoring designed to address the following questions: 1. Is the density and length of OHV routes increasing? 2. Are there cumulative effects of past and current OHV use associated with changes in the environmental integrity of soils, plants, and wildlife? 3. Is the spread of invasive species associated with levels of OHV use? 4. Is there a threshold of OHV impact that might be translated to management action by the BLM? The monitoring studies will be used to collect baseline environmental information to determine levels of environmental impact of OHV use. This approach will use a low-impact area as a proxy for pre-impact conditions (substituting space for time) to determine thresholds of OHV impacts beyond which environmental integrity is affected. Indicators of environmental integrity will emphasize factors that are fundamental to ecosystem structure and function and likely to be sensitive to OHV impacts. Surficial geology is studied because material properties such as texture and chemistry strongly control soil moisture and nutrient availability and therefore affect plant growth and distribution. An understanding of surficial geology can be used to predict and extrapolate soil properties and improve understanding of vegetation assemblages and their distribution. In the present study, vegetation associations may be examined as a function of surficial geology as well as other environmental variables such as slope, aspect, NRCS (National Resources Conservation Service) soil classification, elevation, and land-use history. Ground measurements of vegetation, biological soil crusts, compaction, and other information may be correlated with land use to identify possible ecological thresholds in OHV use that require monitoring. Surficial geology is relevant for several other studies of OHV impact, such as soil compaction, dust emissions, and acceleration of erosion. Compaction, reduced infiltration, and accelerated erosion have been documented in Dove Spring Canyon because of OHV use (Snyder and others, 1976) and elsewhere in the Mojave Desert (e.g., Webb, 1983; Langdon, 2000). A surficial geologic map enables the use of geomorphic process models, which when combined with measured soil properties, such as texture, nutrient chemistry, and bulk density, allows spatial extrapolation of the properties. Maps can be produced that predict compaction susceptibility, moisture conditions, dust emissions, flood hazards, and erodibility, among other applications.

Developing a technique that predicts the impacts of TDM on a transportation system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

Given declining resources, pressing problems, and environmental constraints, state departments of transportation (DOTs) are increasingly motivated to manage peak demand of vehicle trips as a way to mitigate congestion and improve overall performance ...

DYNAMICS OF AUTOMOTIVE SULFATE EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

A preliminary assessment of the potential environmental impact of automotive sulfuric acid (or sulfate) aerosol has been made by analyzing the aerosol dynamics. This analysis leads to the prediction of ambient automotive sulfuric acid aerosol concentrations over and around a larg...

Investigations of environmental effects on freeway acoustics.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

The study reported here was designed to examine the impact of background meteorological conditions on the : propagation of noise from urban freeways in the Phoenix area. The aim was to understand and predict how : sound waves emanating from highways ...

Extinctions in ancient and modern seas.

PubMed

Harnik, Paul G; Lotze, Heike K; Anderson, Sean C; Finkel, Zoe V; Finnegan, Seth; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P

2012-11-01

In the coming century, life in the ocean will be confronted with a suite of environmental conditions that have no analog in human history. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine which marine species will adapt and which will go extinct. Here, we review the growing literature on marine extinctions and extinction risk in the fossil, historical, and modern records to compare the patterns, drivers, and biological correlates of marine extinctions at different times in the past. Characterized by markedly different environmental states, some past periods share common features with predicted future scenarios. We highlight how the different records can be integrated to better understand and predict the impact of current and projected future environmental changes on extinction risk in the ocean. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distribution of periphytic algae in wetlands (Palm swamps, Cerrado), Brazil.

PubMed

Dunck, B; Nogueira, I S; Felisberto, S A

2013-05-01

The distribution of periphytic algae communities depends on various factors such as type of substrate, level of disturbance, nutrient availability and light. According to the prediction that impacts of anthropogenic activity provide changes in environmental characteristics, making impacted Palm swamps related to environmental changes such as deforestation and higher loads of nutrients via allochthonous, the hypothesis tested was: impacted Palm swamps have higher richness, density, biomass and biovolume of epiphytic algae. We evaluated the distribution and structure of epiphytic algae communities in 23 Palm swamps of Goiás State under different environmental impacts. The community structure attributes here analyzed were composition, richness, density, biomass and biovolume. This study revealed the importance of the environment on the distribution and structuration of algal communities, relating the higher values of richness, biomass and biovolume with impacted environments. Acidic waters and high concentration of silica were important factors in this study. Altogether 200 taxa were identified, and the zygnemaphycea was the group most representative in richness and biovolume, whereas the diatoms, in density of studied epiphyton. Impacted Palm swamps in agricultural area presented two indicator species, Gomphonema lagenula Kützing and Oedogonium sp, both related to mesotrophic to eutrophic conditions for total nitrogen concentrations of these environments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Like; Kang, Jian, E-mail: j.kang@sheffield.ac.uk; Schroth, Olaf

Large scale transportation projects can adversely affect the visual perception of environmental quality and require adequate visual impact assessment. In this study, we investigated the effects of the characteristics of the road project and the character of the existing landscape on the perceived visual impact of motorways, and developed a GIS-based prediction model based on the findings. An online survey using computer-visualised scenes of different motorway and landscape scenarios was carried out to obtain perception-based judgements on the visual impact. Motorway scenarios simulated included the baseline scenario without road, original motorway, motorways with timber noise barriers, transparent noise barriers andmore » tree screen; different landscape scenarios were created by changing land cover of buildings and trees in three distance zones. The landscape content of each scene was measured in GIS. The result shows that presence of a motorway especially with the timber barrier significantly decreases the visual quality of the view. The resulted visual impact tends to be lower where it is less visually pleasant with more buildings in the view, and can be slightly reduced by the visual absorption effect of the scattered trees between the motorway and the viewpoint. Based on the survey result, eleven predictors were identified for the visual impact prediction model which was applied in GIS to generate maps of visual impact of motorways in different scenarios. The proposed prediction model can be used to achieve efficient and reliable assessment of visual impact of motorways. - Highlights: • Motorways induce significant visual impact especially with timber noise barriers. • Visual impact is negatively correlated with amount of buildings in the view. • Visual impact is positively correlated with percentage of trees in the view. • Perception-based motorway visual impact prediction model using mapped predictors • Predicted visual impacts in different scenarios are mapped in GIS.« less

Fully in Silico Calibration of Empirical Predictive Models for Environmental Fate Properties of Novel Munitions Compounds

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

57) ASTM Standard E 2552 (2008) Standard guide for assessing the environmental and human health impacts of new energetic compounds; ASTM...Project ER-1735 APRIL 2016 Paul G. Tratnyek Alexandra J. Salter-Blanc Oregon Health & Science University Eric J. Bylaska Kurt R...order NEB Nudged Elastic Band NMR Nuclear Magnetic Resonance NOM Natural Organic Matter OHSU Oregon Health & Science University PCM Polarizable

Impact of hydrogeological data on measures of uncertainty, site characterization and environmental performance metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Ezzedine, Souheil; Rubin, Yoram

2012-02-01

The significance of conditioning predictions of environmental performance metrics (EPMs) on hydrogeological data in heterogeneous porous media is addressed. Conditioning EPMs on available data reduces uncertainty and increases the reliability of model predictions. We present a rational and concise approach to investigate the impact of conditioning EPMs on data as a function of the location of the environmentally sensitive target receptor, data types and spacing between measurements. We illustrate how the concept of comparative information yield curves introduced in de Barros et al. [de Barros FPJ, Rubin Y, Maxwell R. The concept of comparative information yield curves and its application to risk-based site characterization. Water Resour Res 2009;45:W06401. doi:10.1029/2008WR007324] could be used to assess site characterization needs as a function of flow and transport dimensionality and EPMs. For a given EPM, we show how alternative uncertainty reduction metrics yield distinct gains of information from a variety of sampling schemes. Our results show that uncertainty reduction is EPM dependent (e.g., travel times) and does not necessarily indicate uncertainty reduction in an alternative EPM (e.g., human health risk). The results show how the position of the environmental target, flow dimensionality and the choice of the uncertainty reduction metric can be used to assist in field sampling campaigns.

Ecological niche modeling for a cultivated plant species: a case study on taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii.

PubMed

Kodis, Mali'o; Galante, Peter; Sterling, Eleanor J; Blair, Mary E

2018-04-26

Under the threat of ongoing and projected climate change, communities in the Pacific Islands face challenges of adapting culture and lifestyle to accommodate a changing landscape. Few models can effectively predict how biocultural livelihoods might be impacted. Here, we examine how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence an ecological niche model (ENM) for the realized niche of cultivated taro (Colocasia esculenta) in Hawaii. We created and tuned two sets of ENMs: one using only environmental variables, and one using both environmental and cultural characteristics of Hawaii. These models were projected under two different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2070. Models were selected and evaluated using average omission rate and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We compared optimal model predictions by comparing the percentage of taro plots predicted present and measured ENM overlap using Schoener's D statistic. The model including only environmental variables consisted of 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables, in addition to slope, altitude, distance to perennial streams, soil evaporation, and soil moisture. The optimal model with environmental variables plus anthropogenic features also included a road density variable (which we assumed as a proxy for urbanization) and a variable indicating agricultural lands of importance to the state of Hawaii. The model including anthropogenic features performed better than the environment-only model based on omission rate, AUC, and review of spatial projections. The two models also differed in spatial projections for taro under anticipated future climate change. Our results demonstrate how ENMs including anthropogenic features can predict which areas might be best suited to plant cultivated species in the future, and how these areas could change under various climate projections. These predictions might inform biocultural conservation priorities and initiatives. In addition, we discuss the incongruences that arise when traditional ENM theory is applied to species whose distribution has been significantly impacted by human intervention, particularly at a fine scale relevant to biocultural conservation initiatives. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Beyond Climate and Weather Science: Expanding the Forecasting Family to Serve Societal Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, E. J.

2009-05-01

The ability to "anticipate" the future is what makes information from the Earth sciences valuable to society - whether it is the prediction of severe weather or the future availability of water resources in response to climate change. An improved ability to anticipate or forecast has the potential to serve society by simultaneously improving our ability to (1) promote economic vitality, (2) enable environmental stewardship, (3) protect life and property, as well as (4) improve our fundamental knowledge of the earth system. The potential is enormous, yet many appear ready to move quickly toward specific mitigation and adaptation strategies assuming that the science is settled. Five important weakness must be addressed first: (1) the formation of a true "climate services" function and capability, (2) the deliberate investment in expanding the family of forecasting elements to incorporate a broader array of environmental factors and impacts, (3) the investment in the sciences that connect climate to society, (4) a deliberate focus on the problems associated with scale, in particular the difference between the scale of predictive models and the scale associated with societal decisions, and (5) the evolution from climate services and model predictions to the equivalent of "environmental intelligence centers." The objective is to bring the discipline of forecasting to a broader array of environmental challenges. Assessments of the potential impacts of global climate change on societal sectors such as water, human health, and agriculture provide good examples of this challenge. We have the potential to move from a largely reactive mode in addressing adverse health outcomes, for example, to one in which the ties between climate, land cover, infectious disease vectors, and human health are used to forecast and predict adverse human health conditions. The potential exists for a revolution in forecasting, that entrains a much broader set of societal needs and solutions. The argument is made that (for example) the current capabilities in the prediction of environmental health is similar to the capabilities (and potential) of weather forecasting in the 1960's.

Environmental structure and competitive scoring advantages in team competitions.

PubMed

Merritt, Sears; Clauset, Aaron

2013-10-29

In most professional sports, playing field structure is kept neutral so that scoring imbalances may be attributed to differences in team skill. It thus remains unknown what impact environmental heterogeneities can have on scoring dynamics or competitive advantages. Applying a novel generative model of scoring dynamics to roughly 10 million team competitions drawn from an online game, we quantify the relationship between the structure within a competition and its scoring dynamics, while controlling the impact of chance. Despite wide structural variations, we observe a common three-phase pattern in the tempo of events. Tempo and balance are highly predictable from a competition's structural features alone and teams exploit environmental heterogeneities for sustained competitive advantage. Surprisingly, the most balanced competitions are associated with specific environmental heterogeneities, not from equally skilled teams. These results shed new light on the design principles of balanced competition, and illustrate the potential of online game data for investigating social dynamics and competition.

Who perceives what? A demographic analysis of subjective perception in rural Thailand

PubMed Central

Meijer-Irons, Jacqueline

2016-01-01

Rural households that rely on natural resources for their livelihoods are expected to face increased vulnerability due to climate variability. A number of empirical papers have assessed the impact of environmental shocks on these households, including demographic research that has investigated the impact of shocks on migration. To date, few studies have explicitly modeled how individual and household characteristics influence a household respondent’s subjective perceptions of environmental or other shocks. My paper uses a unique panel dataset from rural Thailand to predict a respondent’s probability of attributing a reduction in income to an environmental shock based on household composition and income, as well as on community-level effects. Preliminary results suggest that household composition influences respondents’ perceptions of environmental risk, and that policies aimed at vulnerable communities should consider the life courses of the households within a given community. PMID:28058054

Environmental structure and competitive scoring advantages in team competitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merritt, Sears; Clauset, Aaron

2013-10-01

In most professional sports, playing field structure is kept neutral so that scoring imbalances may be attributed to differences in team skill. It thus remains unknown what impact environmental heterogeneities can have on scoring dynamics or competitive advantages. Applying a novel generative model of scoring dynamics to roughly 10 million team competitions drawn from an online game, we quantify the relationship between the structure within a competition and its scoring dynamics, while controlling the impact of chance. Despite wide structural variations, we observe a common three-phase pattern in the tempo of events. Tempo and balance are highly predictable from a competition's structural features alone and teams exploit environmental heterogeneities for sustained competitive advantage. Surprisingly, the most balanced competitions are associated with specific environmental heterogeneities, not from equally skilled teams. These results shed new light on the design principles of balanced competition, and illustrate the potential of online game data for investigating social dynamics and competition.

INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL OUTCOMES INTO A HEALTH ECONOMIC MODEL.

PubMed

Marsh, Kevin; Ganz, Michael; Nørtoft, Emil; Lund, Niels; Graff-Zivin, Joshua

2016-01-01

Traditional economic evaluations for most health technology assessments (HTAs) have previously not included environmental outcomes. With the growing interest in reducing the environmental impact of human activities, the need to consider how to include environmental outcomes into HTAs has increased. We present a simple method of doing so. We adapted an existing clinical-economic model to include environmental outcomes (carbon dioxide [CO2] emissions) to predict the consequences of adding insulin to an oral antidiabetic (OAD) regimen for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) over 30 years, from the United Kingdom payer perspective. Epidemiological, efficacy, healthcare costs, utility, and carbon emissions data were derived from published literature. A scenario analysis was performed to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty. The addition of insulin to an OAD regimen increases costs by 2,668 British pounds per patient and is associated with 0.36 additional quality-adjusted life-years per patient. The insulin-OAD combination regimen generates more treatment and disease management-related CO2 emissions per patient (1,686 kg) than the OAD-only regimen (310 kg), but generates fewer emissions associated with treating complications (3,019 kg versus 3,337 kg). Overall, adding insulin to OAD therapy generates an extra 1,057 kg of CO2 emissions per patient over 30 years. The model offers a simple approach for incorporating environmental outcomes into health economic analyses, to support a decision-maker's objective of reducing the environmental impact of health care. Further work is required to improve the accuracy of the approach; in particular, the generation of resource-specific environmental impacts.

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.

2018-04-10

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modelingmore » frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. Here, we can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.« less

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stegen, James C.

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modelingmore » frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. Here, we can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.« less

At the Nexus of History, Ecology, and Hydrobiogeochemistry: Improved Predictions across Scales through Integration.

PubMed

Stegen, James C

2018-01-01

To improve predictions of ecosystem function in future environments, we need to integrate the ecological and environmental histories experienced by microbial communities with hydrobiogeochemistry across scales. A key issue is whether we can derive generalizable scaling relationships that describe this multiscale integration. There is a strong foundation for addressing these challenges. We have the ability to infer ecological history with null models and reveal impacts of environmental history through laboratory and field experimentation. Recent developments also provide opportunities to inform ecosystem models with targeted omics data. A major next step is coupling knowledge derived from such studies with multiscale modeling frameworks that are predictive under non-steady-state conditions. This is particularly true for systems spanning dynamic interfaces, which are often hot spots of hydrobiogeochemical function. We can advance predictive capabilities through a holistic perspective focused on the nexus of history, ecology, and hydrobiogeochemistry.

Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia

PubMed Central

Strager, Michael P.; Strager, Jacquelyn M.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Dunscomb, Judy K.; Kreps, Brad J.; Maxwell, Aaron E.

2015-01-01

Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts. PMID:26090883

Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. Randolph; Anderson, James G.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Brock, Charles A.; Brune, William H.; Cohen, Ronald C.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Newman, Paul A.; Rodriquez, Jose M.; Stolarski, Richard S.;

Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. Randolph; Anderson, James G.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Brock, Charles A.; Brune, William H.; Cohen, Ronald C.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Newman, Paul A.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Stolarski, Richard S.;

CELLULAR UPTAKE AND TOXICITY OF DENDRITIC NANOMATERIALS: AN INTEGRATED PHYSICOCHEMICAL AND TOXICOGENOMICS STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The successful completion of this project is expected to provide industry with critical data and predictive tools needed to assess the health and environmental impact of dendritic nanomaterials such as EDA core PAMAM dendrimers.

Peak health and the need for more sustainable urban water systems

EPA Science Inventory

Large centralized urban water services in developed countries like the USA still provide significant environmental impact via loss of ecological water services, energy use, loss of nutrients from agricultural production, and eutrophication issues. Current climate models predict t...

Space Shuttle Environmental Effects: The First 5 Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, A. (Editor)

1983-01-01

Environmental effects associated with the first five Space Shuttle flights were monitored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Air Force (USAF). Results and interpretations from this effort were reported at the December 1982 joint NASA-USAF conference. The conference proceedings are presented in this document. Most of the monitoring activity was focused on the launch cloud, emphasizing surface effects on the biota and air quality, model prediction of surface concentrations of HCl gas and Al2O3 dust, and airborne measurements of cloud composition. In general, assessments and predictions made in the April 1978 Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Space Shuttle Program were verified. Fallout of acidic mist and dust within 3 mi to 5 mi of the launch pad was the only unexpected effect of the launch. Atomization of deluge water in the Shuttle exhaust is considered to be the most probable cause of this effect. Sonic booms were monitored for several landings at Edwards Air Force Base, California; results agreed well with model predictions.

Declining Coral Skeletal Extension for Forereef Colonies of Siderastrea siderea on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, Southern Belize

PubMed Central

Castillo, Karl D.; Ries, Justin B.; Weiss, Jack M.

2011-01-01

Background Natural and anthropogenic stressors are predicted to have increasingly negative impacts on coral reefs. Understanding how these environmental stressors have impacted coral skeletal growth should improve our ability to predict how they may affect coral reefs in the future. We investigated century-scale variations in skeletal extension for the slow-growing massive scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea inhabiting the forereef, backreef, and nearshore reefs of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS) in the western Caribbean Sea. Methodology/Principal Findings Thirteen S. siderea cores were extracted, slabbed, and X-rayed. Annual skeletal extension was estimated from adjacent low- and high-density growth bands. Since the early 1900s, forereef S. siderea colonies have shifted from exhibiting the fastest to the slowest average annual skeletal extension, while values for backreef and nearshore colonies have remained relatively constant. The rates of change in annual skeletal extension were −0.020±0.005, 0.011±0.006, and −0.008±0.006 mm yr−1 per year [mean±SE] for forereef, backreef, and nearshore colonies respectively. These values for forereef and nearshore S. siderea were significantly lower by 0.031±0.008 and by 0.019±0.009 mm yr−1 per year, respectively, than for backreef colonies. However, only forereef S. siderea exhibited a statistically significant decline in annual skeletal extension over the last century. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that forereef S. siderea colonies are more susceptible to environmental stress than backreef and nearshore counterparts, which may have historically been exposed to higher natural baseline stressors. Alternatively, sediment plumes, nutrients, and pollution originating from watersheds of Guatemala and Honduras may disproportionately impact the forereef environment of the MBRS. We are presently reconstructing the history of environmental stressors that have impacted the MBRS to constrain the cause(s) of the observed reductions in coral skeletal growth. This should improve our ability to predict and potentially mitigate the effects of future environmental stressors on coral reef ecosystems. PMID:21359203

On Improving the Quality and Interpretation of Environmental Assessments using Statistical Analysis and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karuppiah, R.; Faldi, A.; Laurenzi, I.; Usadi, A.; Venkatesh, A.

2014-12-01

An increasing number of studies are focused on assessing the environmental footprint of different products and processes, especially using life cycle assessment (LCA). This work shows how combining statistical methods and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with environmental analyses can help improve the quality of results and their interpretation. Most environmental assessments in literature yield single numbers that characterize the environmental impact of a process/product - typically global or country averages, often unchanging in time. In this work, we show how statistical analysis and GIS can help address these limitations. For example, we demonstrate a method to separately quantify uncertainty and variability in the result of LCA models using a power generation case study. This is important for rigorous comparisons between the impacts of different processes. Another challenge is lack of data that can affect the rigor of LCAs. We have developed an approach to estimate environmental impacts of incompletely characterized processes using predictive statistical models. This method is applied to estimate unreported coal power plant emissions in several world regions. There is also a general lack of spatio-temporal characterization of the results in environmental analyses. For instance, studies that focus on water usage do not put in context where and when water is withdrawn. Through the use of hydrological modeling combined with GIS, we quantify water stress on a regional and seasonal basis to understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users. Another example where it is important to consider regional dependency of impacts is when characterizing how agricultural land occupation affects biodiversity in a region. We developed a data-driven methodology used in conjuction with GIS to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between the impacts of growing different crops on different species in various biomes of the world.

Integrated Modeling Approach for Optimal Management of Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Vesselinov, Velimir Valentinov

We report that water, energy and food (WEF) are inextricably interrelated. Effective planning and management of limited WEF resources to meet current and future socioeconomic demands for sustainable development is challenging. WEF production/delivery may also produce environmental impacts; as a result, green-house-gas emission control will impact WEF nexus management as well. Nexus management for WEF security necessitates integrated tools for predictive analysis that are capable of identifying the tradeoffs among various sectors, generating cost-effective planning and management strategies and policies. To address these needs, we have developed an integrated model analysis framework and tool called WEFO. WEFO provides a multi-periodmore » socioeconomic model for predicting how to satisfy WEF demands based on model inputs representing productions costs, socioeconomic demands, and environmental controls. WEFO is applied to quantitatively analyze the interrelationships and trade-offs among system components including energy supply, electricity generation, water supply-demand, food production as well as mitigation of environmental impacts. WEFO is demonstrated to solve a hypothetical nexus management problem consistent with real-world management scenarios. Model parameters are analyzed using global sensitivity analysis and their effects on total system cost are quantified. Lastly, the obtained results demonstrate how these types of analyses can be helpful for decision-makers and stakeholders to make cost-effective decisions for optimal WEF management.« less

Integrated Modeling Approach for Optimal Management of Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Xiaodong; Vesselinov, Velimir Valentinov

2016-12-28

We report that water, energy and food (WEF) are inextricably interrelated. Effective planning and management of limited WEF resources to meet current and future socioeconomic demands for sustainable development is challenging. WEF production/delivery may also produce environmental impacts; as a result, green-house-gas emission control will impact WEF nexus management as well. Nexus management for WEF security necessitates integrated tools for predictive analysis that are capable of identifying the tradeoffs among various sectors, generating cost-effective planning and management strategies and policies. To address these needs, we have developed an integrated model analysis framework and tool called WEFO. WEFO provides a multi-periodmore » socioeconomic model for predicting how to satisfy WEF demands based on model inputs representing productions costs, socioeconomic demands, and environmental controls. WEFO is applied to quantitatively analyze the interrelationships and trade-offs among system components including energy supply, electricity generation, water supply-demand, food production as well as mitigation of environmental impacts. WEFO is demonstrated to solve a hypothetical nexus management problem consistent with real-world management scenarios. Model parameters are analyzed using global sensitivity analysis and their effects on total system cost are quantified. Lastly, the obtained results demonstrate how these types of analyses can be helpful for decision-makers and stakeholders to make cost-effective decisions for optimal WEF management.« less

Final Environmental Impact Statement Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-04-01

source, permit application compliance, permit issuance, renewal and revision, and permit review by the U.S. EPA and any affected states. Because...Quality Standards NH3 = ammonia NOx = nitrogen oxides OSHA = Occupational Safety and Health Administration PEL = Permissible Exposure Level ppm = parts...NO or NO2 incremental concentrations during an abort were predicted by REEDM for only the DIV-S vehicle configuration. Ammonia was predicted by REEDM

Impact of Hydrogeological Uncertainty on Estimation of Environmental Risks Posed by Hydrocarbon Transportation Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, V.; Lauriola, I.; Bonvicini, S.; Cozzani, V.; Di Federico, V.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

2017-11-01

Ubiquitous hydrogeological uncertainty undermines the veracity of quantitative predictions of soil and groundwater contamination due to accidental hydrocarbon spills from onshore pipelines. Such predictions, therefore, must be accompanied by quantification of predictive uncertainty, especially when they are used for environmental risk assessment. We quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on quantitative forecasting of temporal evolution of two key risk indices, volumes of unsaturated and saturated soil contaminated by a surface spill of light nonaqueous-phase liquids. This is accomplished by treating the relevant uncertain parameters as random variables and deploying two alternative probabilistic models to estimate their effect on predictive uncertainty. A physics-based model is solved with a stochastic collocation method and is supplemented by a global sensitivity analysis. A second model represents the quantities of interest as polynomials of random inputs and has a virtually negligible computational cost, which enables one to explore any number of risk-related contamination scenarios. For a typical oil-spill scenario, our method can be used to identify key flow and transport parameters affecting the risk indices, to elucidate texture-dependent behavior of different soils, and to evaluate, with a degree of confidence specified by the decision-maker, the extent of contamination and the correspondent remediation costs.

Microbial Functional Gene Diversity Predicts Groundwater Contamination and Ecosystem Functioning.

PubMed

He, Zhili; Zhang, Ping; Wu, Linwei; Rocha, Andrea M; Tu, Qichao; Shi, Zhou; Wu, Bo; Qin, Yujia; Wang, Jianjun; Yan, Qingyun; Curtis, Daniel; Ning, Daliang; Van Nostrand, Joy D; Wu, Liyou; Yang, Yunfeng; Elias, Dwayne A; Watson, David B; Adams, Michael W W; Fields, Matthew W; Alm, Eric J; Hazen, Terry C; Adams, Paul D; Arkin, Adam P; Zhou, Jizhong

2018-02-20

Contamination from anthropogenic activities has significantly impacted Earth's biosphere. However, knowledge about how environmental contamination affects the biodiversity of groundwater microbiomes and ecosystem functioning remains very limited. Here, we used a comprehensive functional gene array to analyze groundwater microbiomes from 69 wells at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center (Oak Ridge, TN), representing a wide pH range and uranium, nitrate, and other contaminants. We hypothesized that the functional diversity of groundwater microbiomes would decrease as environmental contamination (e.g., uranium or nitrate) increased or at low or high pH, while some specific populations capable of utilizing or resistant to those contaminants would increase, and thus, such key microbial functional genes and/or populations could be used to predict groundwater contamination and ecosystem functioning. Our results indicated that functional richness/diversity decreased as uranium (but not nitrate) increased in groundwater. In addition, about 5.9% of specific key functional populations targeted by a comprehensive functional gene array (GeoChip 5) increased significantly ( P < 0.05) as uranium or nitrate increased, and their changes could be used to successfully predict uranium and nitrate contamination and ecosystem functioning. This study indicates great potential for using microbial functional genes to predict environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning. IMPORTANCE Disentangling the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is an important but poorly understood topic in ecology. Predicting ecosystem functioning on the basis of biodiversity is even more difficult, particularly with microbial biomarkers. As an exploratory effort, this study used key microbial functional genes as biomarkers to provide predictive understanding of environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning. The results indicated that the overall functional gene richness/diversity decreased as uranium increased in groundwater, while specific key microbial guilds increased significantly as uranium or nitrate increased. These key microbial functional genes could be used to successfully predict environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning. This study represents a significant advance in using functional gene markers to predict the spatial distribution of environmental contaminants and ecosystem functioning toward predictive microbial ecology, which is an ultimate goal of microbial ecology. Copyright © 2018 He et al.

Survey of the effect of odour impact on communities.

PubMed

Hayes, J E; Stevenson, R J; Stuetz, R M

2017-12-15

In the context of environmental malodour, surveys are valuable as they allow for the relatively detailed analysis of multiple factors pertaining to odour perception and subsequent reaction. However, the causes for an individual to experience odour impact while a neighbour will not are still not understood. The goal of this current survey design was to consolidate varying research paths for surveys within the environmental odour research space. This survey investigated the area of effect for wastewater treatment plants by using stratified random sampling techniques that radiated from the industrial areas. Additionally, this survey provided a "non-alerted" response to environmental malodour that represents a step forward for ecological validity. We found a small number of items relating to odour annoyance and home ownership that can be used in order to predict odour impact for individual community members. However, we also did not find any relationship with odour impact and perceived control. This survey design and analysis reconciles the varied approaches towards community surveys administered in prior literature, as well as providing information to improve future community engagement policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Matthew T.

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach, September 2005

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

there are no reliable alternatives to animal testing in the determination of toxicity. QSARs are only as reliable as the corroborating toxicological ...2) QSAR approaches can also be used to estimate toxicological impact. Toxicity QSAR models can often predict many toxicity parameters without... Toxicology Study No. 87-XE-03N3-05, Assessing the Potential Environmental Consequences of a New Energetic Material: A Phased Approach, September 2005 1

What Should We Monitor? Indicators of Human Disturbance and Ecological Impact

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological indicators are physical, chemical, and biological measures of environmental condition that change predictably with levels of human disturbance. Historically, indicators have been used to monitor and assess the status and trends of coastal waters and to diagnose the ma...

Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

PubMed

Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

2015-11-03

Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models.

Surrogate species selection for assessing potential adverse environmental impacts of genetically engineered insect-resistant plants on non-target organisms.

PubMed

Carstens, Keri; Cayabyab, Bonifacio; De Schrijver, Adinda; Gadaleta, Patricia G; Hellmich, Richard L; Romeis, Jörg; Storer, Nicholas; Valicente, Fernando H; Wach, Michael

2014-01-01

Most regulatory authorities require that developers of genetically engineered insect-resistant (GEIR) crops evaluate the potential for these crops to have adverse impacts on valued non-target organisms (NTOs), i.e., organisms not intended to be controlled by the trait. In many cases, impacts to NTOs are assessed using surrogate species, and it is critical that the data derived from surrogates accurately predict any adverse impacts likely to be observed from the use of the crop in the agricultural context. The key is to select surrogate species that best represent the valued NTOs in the location where the crop is going to be introduced, but this selection process poses numerous challenges for the developers of GE crops who will perform the tests, as well as for the ecologists and regulators who will interpret the test results. These issues were the subject of a conference "Surrogate Species Selection for Assessing Potential Adverse Environmental Impacts of Genetically Engineered Plants on Non-Target Organisms" convened by the Center for Environmental Risk Assessment, ILSI Research Foundation. This report summarizes the proceedings of the conference, including the presentations, discussions and the points of consensus agreed to by the participants.

The use of life-cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts of growing genetically modified, nitrogen use-efficient canola.

PubMed

Strange, Alison; Park, Julian; Bennett, Richard; Phipps, Richard

2008-05-01

Agriculture, particularly intensive crop production, makes a significant contribution to environmental pollution. A variety of canola (Brassica napus) has been genetically modified to enhance nitrogen use efficiency, effectively reducing the amount of fertilizer required for crop production. A partial life-cycle assessment adapted to crop production was used to assess the potential environmental impacts of growing genetically modified, nitrogen use-efficient (GMNUE) canola in North Dakota and Minnesota compared with a conventionally bred control variety. The analysis took into account the entire production system used to produce 1 tonne of canola. This comprised raw material extraction, processing and transportation, as well as all agricultural field operations. All emissions associated with the production of 1 tonne of canola were listed, aggregated and weighted in order to calculate the level of environmental impact. The findings show that there are a range of potential environmental benefits associated with growing GMNUE canola. These include reduced impacts on global warming, freshwater ecotoxicity, eutrophication and acidification. Given the large areas of canola grown in North America and, in particular, Canada, as well as the wide acceptance of genetically modified varieties in this area, there is the potential for GMNUE canola to reduce pollution from agriculture, with the largest reductions predicted to be in greenhouse gases and diffuse water pollution.

Where You Live Matters: Localising Environmental Impacts on Health, Nutrition and Poverty in Cambodia Using Small Area Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsen, K.; van Soesbergen, A.; Matthews, Z.

2016-12-01

Socioeconomic development depends on local environments. However, the scientific evidence quantifying the impact of environmental factors on health, nutrition and poverty at subnational levels is limited. This is because socioeconomic indicators are derived from sample surveys representative only at aggregate levels compared to environmental variables mostly available in high-resolution grids. Cambodia was selected because of its commitment to development in the context of a rapidly deteriorating environment. Having made considerable progress since 2005, access to health services is limited, a quarter of the population is still poor and 40% rural children are malnourished. Cambodia is also facing considerable environmental challenges including high deforestation rates, land degradation and natural hazards. Addressing existing gaps in the knowledge of environmental impacts on health and livelihoods, this study applies small area estimation (SAE) to quantify health, nutritional and poverty outcomes in the context of local environments. SAE produces reliable subnational estimates of socioeconomic outcomes available only from sample surveys by combining them with information from auxiliary sources (census). A model is used to explain common trades across areas and a random effect structure is applied to explain the observed extra heterogeneity. SAE models predicting health, nutrition and poverty outcomes excluding and including contextual environmental variables on natural hazards vulnerability, forest cover, climate, and agricultural production are compared. Results are mapped at regional and district levels to spatially assess the impacts of environmental variation on the outcomes. Inter and intra-regional inequalities are also estimated to examine the efficacy of health/socioeconomic policy targeting based on geographic location. Preliminary results suggest that localised environmental factors have considerable impacts on the indicators estimated and should therefore not be ignored. While there are large regional differences, pockets of malnutrition, poverty and inequitable health outcomes within regions are identified. The inequality decomposition shows under and over-coverage of geographical targeting when environmental factors are taken into account.

The impact of environmental and climatic variation on the spatiotemporal trends of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

PubMed

Thompson, Corinne N; Zelner, Jonathan L; Nhu, Tran Do Hoang; Phan, My Vt; Hoang Le, Phuc; Nguyen Thanh, Hung; Vu Thuy, Duong; Minh Nguyen, Ngoc; Ha Manh, Tuan; Van Hoang Minh, Tu; Lu Lan, Vi; Nguyen Van Vinh, Chau; Tran Tinh, Hien; von Clemm, Emmiliese; Storch, Harry; Thwaites, Guy; Grenfell, Bryan T; Baker, Stephen

2015-09-01

It is predicted that the integration of climate-based early warning systems into existing action plans will facilitate the timely provision of interventions to diarrheal disease epidemics in resource-poor settings. Diarrhea remains a considerable public health problem in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam and we aimed to quantify variation in the impact of environmental conditions on diarrheal disease risk across the city. Using all inpatient diarrheal admissions data from three large hospitals within HCMC, we developed a mixed effects regression model to differentiate district-level variation in risk due to environmental conditions from the overarching seasonality of diarrheal disease hospitalization in HCMC. We identified considerable spatial heterogeneity in the risk of all-cause diarrhea across districts of HCMC with low elevation and differential responses to flooding, air temperature, and humidity driving further spatial heterogeneity in diarrheal disease risk. The incorporation of these results into predictive forecasting algorithms will provide a powerful resource to aid diarrheal disease prevention and control practices in HCMC and other similar settings. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Biodegradation of potential diesel oxygenate additives: dibutyl maleate (DBM), and tripropylene glycol methyl ether (TGME).

PubMed

Marchetti, Alfredo A; Knize, Mark G; Chiarappa-Zucca, Marina L; Pletcher, Ronald J; Layton, David W

2003-08-01

The addition of oxygen-bearing compounds to diesel fuel considerably reduces particulate emissions. TGME and DBM have been identified as possible diesel additives based on their physicochemical characteristics and performance in engine tests. Although these compounds will reduce particulate emissions, their potential environmental impacts are unknown. As a means of characterizing their persistence in environmental media such as soil and groundwater, we conducted a series of biodegradation tests of DBM and TGME. Benzene and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) were also tested as reference compounds. Primary degradation of DBM fully occurred within 3 days, while TGME presented a lag phase of approximately 8 days and was not completely degraded by day 28. Benzene primary degradation occurred completely by day 3 and MTBE did not degrade at all. The total mineralized fractions of DBM and TGME achieved constant values as a function of time of approximately 65% and approximately 40%, respectively. Transport predictions show that, released to the environment, DBM and TGME would concentrate mostly in soils and waters with minimal impact to air. From an environmental standpoint, these results combined with the transport predictions indicate that DBM is a better choice than TGME as a diesel additive.

Shipbuilding Docks as Experimental Systems for Realistic Assessments of Anthropogenic Stressors on Marine Organisms

PubMed Central

Harding, Harry R.; Bunce, Tom; Birch, Fiona; Lister, Jessica; Spiga, Ilaria; Benson, Tom; Rossington, Kate; Jones, Diane; Tyler, Charles R.; Simpson, Stephen D.

2017-01-01

Abstract Empirical investigations of the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on marine organisms are typically performed under controlled laboratory conditions, onshore mesocosms, or via offshore experiments with realistic (but uncontrolled) environmental variation. These approaches have merits, but onshore setups are generally small sized and fail to recreate natural stressor fields, whereas offshore studies are often compromised by confounding factors. We suggest the use of flooded shipbuilding docks to allow studying realistic exposure to stressors and their impacts on the intra- and interspecific responses of animals. Shipbuilding docks permit the careful study of groups of known animals, including the evaluation of their behavioral interactions, while enabling full control of the stressor and many environmental conditions. We propose that this approach could be used for assessing the impacts of prominent anthropogenic stressors, including chemicals, ocean warming, and sound. Results from shipbuilding-dock studies could allow improved parameterization of predictive models relating to the environmental risks and population consequences of anthropogenic stressors. PMID:29599545

Shipbuilding Docks as Experimental Systems for Realistic Assessments of Anthropogenic Stressors on Marine Organisms.

PubMed

Bruintjes, Rick; Harding, Harry R; Bunce, Tom; Birch, Fiona; Lister, Jessica; Spiga, Ilaria; Benson, Tom; Rossington, Kate; Jones, Diane; Tyler, Charles R; Radford, Andrew N; Simpson, Stephen D

2017-09-01

Empirical investigations of the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on marine organisms are typically performed under controlled laboratory conditions, onshore mesocosms, or via offshore experiments with realistic (but uncontrolled) environmental variation. These approaches have merits, but onshore setups are generally small sized and fail to recreate natural stressor fields, whereas offshore studies are often compromised by confounding factors. We suggest the use of flooded shipbuilding docks to allow studying realistic exposure to stressors and their impacts on the intra- and interspecific responses of animals. Shipbuilding docks permit the careful study of groups of known animals, including the evaluation of their behavioral interactions, while enabling full control of the stressor and many environmental conditions. We propose that this approach could be used for assessing the impacts of prominent anthropogenic stressors, including chemicals, ocean warming, and sound. Results from shipbuilding-dock studies could allow improved parameterization of predictive models relating to the environmental risks and population consequences of anthropogenic stressors.

Genetic correlations and sex-specific adaptation in changing environments.

PubMed

Connallon, Tim; Hall, Matthew D

2016-10-01

Females and males have conflicting evolutionary interests. Selection favors the evolution of different phenotypes within each sex, yet divergence between the sexes is constrained by the shared genetic basis of female and male traits. Current theory predicts that such "sexual antagonism" should be common: manifesting rapidly during the process of adaptation, and slow in its resolution. However, these predictions apply in temporally stable environments. Environmental change has been shown empirically to realign the direction of selection acting on shared traits and thereby alleviate signals of sexually antagonistic selection. Yet there remains no theory for how common sexual antagonism should be in changing environments. Here, we analyze models of sex-specific evolutionary divergence under directional and cyclic environmental change, and consider the impact of genetic correlations on long-run patterns of sex-specific adaptation. We find that environmental change often aligns directional selection between the sexes, even when they have divergent phenotypic optima. Nevertheless, some forms of environmental change generate persistent sexually antagonistic selection that is difficult to resolve. Our results reinforce recent empirical observations that changing environmental conditions alleviate conflict between males and females. They also generate new predictions regarding the scope for sexually antagonistic selection and its resolution in changing environments. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a dataset with reasonable fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales (s = 100, 200, 500 m, 1, 2, 5, 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions (R2 = 0.83-0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98% of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately-accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks (R2 ~ 0.55-0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50-100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks can improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-07-01

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing the heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in Earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a data set with reasonable fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales (s = 100, 200, and 500 m and 1, 2, 5, and 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions (R2 = 0.83-0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 m to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98 % of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks (R2 ∼ 0.55-0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50-100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks could improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

DOE PAGES

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-07-02

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing the heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in Earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a data setmore » with reasonable fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales ( s = 100, 200, and 500 m and 1, 2, 5, and 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions ( R 2 = 0.83–0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 m to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98 % of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks ( R 2 ∼ 0.55–0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50–100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks could improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.« less

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

DOE PAGES

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a dataset with reasonablemore » fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales ( s = 100, 200, 500 m, 1, 2, 5, 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions ( R 2 = 0.83–0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98% of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately-accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks ( R 2 ~ 0.55–0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50–100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks can improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.« less

Threshold Values for Identification of Contamination Predicted by Reduced-Order Models

DOE PAGES

Last, George V.; Murray, Christopher J.; Bott, Yi-Ju; ...

2014-12-31

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project is developing reduced-order models to evaluate potential impacts on underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) if CO2 or brine leaks from deep CO2 storage reservoirs. Threshold values, below which there would be no predicted impacts, were determined for portions of two aquifer systems. These threshold values were calculated using an interwell approach for determining background groundwater concentrations that is an adaptation of methods described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Unified Guidance for Statistical Analysis of Groundwater Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities.

Forecasting system predicts presence of sea nettles in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Christopher W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Li, Zhen; Decker, Mary Beth; Gross, Thomas F.; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Wang, Harry V.

Outbreaks of noxious biota, which occur in both aquatic and terrestrial systems, can have considerable negative economic impacts. For example, an increasing frequency of harmful algal blooms worldwide has negatively affected the tourism industry in many regions. Such impacts could be mitigated if the conditions that give rise to these outbreaks were known and could be monitored. Recent advances in technology and communications allow us to continuously measure and model many environmental factors that are responsible for outbreaks of certain noxious organisms. A new prototype ecological forecasting system predicts the likelihood of occurrence of the sea nettle (Chrysaora quinquecirrha), a stinging jellyfish, in the Chesapeake Bay.

Climate change and Australian agriculture: a review of the threats facing rural communities and the health policy landscape.

PubMed

Hanna, Elizabeth G; Bell, Erica; King, Debra; Woodruff, Rosalie

2011-03-01

Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend; the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review.

PubMed

Hellberg, Rosalee S; Chu, Eric

2016-08-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

Environmental changes impacting Echinococcus transmission: research to support predictive surveillance and control.

PubMed

Atkinson, Jo-An M; Gray, Darren J; Clements, Archie C A; Barnes, Tamsin S; McManus, Donald P; Yang, Yu R

2013-03-01

Echinococcosis, resulting from infection with tapeworms Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, has a global distribution with 2-3 million people affected and 200,000 new cases diagnosed annually. Costs of treatment for humans and economic losses to the livestock industry have been estimated to exceed $2 billion. These figures are likely to be an underestimation given the challenges with its early detection and the lack of mandatory official reporting policies in most countries. Despite this global burden, echinococcosis remains a neglected zoonosis. The importance of environmental factors in influencing the transmission intensity and distribution of Echinococcus spp. is increasingly being recognized. With the advent of climate change and the influence of global population expansion, food insecurity and land-use changes, questions about the potential impact of changing temperature, rainfall patterns, increasing urbanization, deforestation, grassland degradation and overgrazing on zoonotic disease transmission are being raised. This study is the first to comprehensively review how climate change and anthropogenic environmental factors contribute to the transmission of echinococcosis mediated by changes in animal population dynamics, spatial overlap of competent hosts and the creation of improved conditions for egg survival. We advocate rigorous scientific research to establish the causal link between specific environmental variables and echinococcosis in humans and the incorporation of environmental, animal and human data collection within a sentinel site surveillance network that will complement satellite remote-sensing information. Identifying the environmental determinants of transmission risk to humans will be vital for the design of more accurate predictive models to guide cost-effective pre-emptive public health action against echinococcosis. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Theory predicts that strong indirect effects of environmental change will impact communities when niche differences between competitors are small and variation in the direct effects experienced by competitors is large, but empirical tests are lacking. Here we estimate negative frequency dependence, ...

Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

EPA Science Inventory

It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is impor...

Capturing and Displaying Uncertainty in the Common Tactical/Environmental Picture

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-30

multistatic active detection, and incorporated this characterization into a Bayesian track - before - detect system called, the Likelihood Ratio Tracker (LRT...prediction uncertainty in a track before detect system for multistatic active sonar. The approach has worked well on limited simulation data. IMPACT

Impact of an Ecohydrology Classroom Activity on Middle School Students' Understanding of Evapotranspiration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villegas, Juan Camilo; Morrison, Clayton T.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Beal, Carole R.; Espeleta, Javier E.; Adamson, Matt

2010-01-01

Current trends in ecological research emphasize interdisciplinary approaches for assessing effects of present and predicted environmental changes. One such emerging interdisciplinary field is the discipline of ecohydrology, which studies the feedbacks and interactions between ecological and hydrological processes. However, interdisciplinary…

Hydrologic and biogeochemical controls on phosphorus export from western Lake Erie tributaries

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the processes controlling phosphorus (P) export from agricultural watersheds is essential for predicting and mitigating adverse environmental impacts. In this study, discharge, dissolved reactive phosphorus load, and total phosphorus load time series data (1975-2014) from two Lake Erie...

Soil texture and organic carbon fractions predicted from near-infrared spectroscopy and geostatistics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Field-specific management could help achieve agricultural sustainability by increasing production and decreasing environmental impacts. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and geostatistics are relatively unexplored tools that could reduce time, labor, and costs of soil analysis. Our objective was to ...

Decay model for biocide treatment of unballasted vessels: application for the Laurentian Great Lakes.

PubMed

Sano, Larissa L; Bartell, Steven M; Landrum, Peter F

2005-10-01

A biocide decay model was developed to assess the potential efficacy and environmental impacts associated with using glutaraldehyde to treat unballasted overseas vessels trading on the Laurentian Great Lakes. The results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that effective glutaraldehyde concentrations can be maintained for the duration of a vessel's oceanic transit (approximately 9-12 days): During this transit, glutaraldehyde concentrations were predicted to decrease by approximately 10% from initial treatment levels (e.g., 500 mgL(-1)). In terms of environmental impacts, mean glutaraldehyde concentrations released at Duluth-Superior Harbor, MN were predicted to be 100-fold lower than initial treatment concentrations, and ranged from 3.2 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 2.74) in April to 0.7 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 1.28) in August. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the re-ballasting dilution factor was the major variable governing final glutaraldehyde concentrations; however, lake surface temperatures became increasingly important during the warmer summer months.

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urquhart, Erin A.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Guikema, Seth D.; Del Castillo, Carlos E.

2014-01-01

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

Fish introductions reveal the temperature dependence of species interactions

PubMed Central

Hein, Catherine L.; Öhlund, Gunnar; Englund, Göran

2014-01-01

A major area of current research is to understand how climate change will impact species interactions and ultimately biodiversity. A variety of environmental conditions are rapidly changing owing to climate warming, and these conditions often affect both the strength and outcome of species interactions. We used fish distributions and replicated fish introductions to investigate environmental conditions influencing the coexistence of two fishes in Swedish lakes: brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pike (Esox lucius). A logistic regression model of brown trout and pike coexistence showed that these species coexist in large lakes (more than 4.5 km2), but not in small, warm lakes (annual air temperature more than 0.9–1.5°C). We then explored how climate change will alter coexistence by substituting climate scenarios for 2091–2100 into our model. The model predicts that brown trout will be extirpated from approximately half of the lakes where they presently coexist with pike and from nearly all 9100 lakes where pike are predicted to invade. Context dependency was critical for understanding pike–brown trout interactions, and, given the widespread occurrence of context-dependent species interactions, this aspect will probably be critical for accurately predicting climate impacts on biodiversity. PMID:24307673

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-07-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, appropriateness of drought indices selection for specific applications, and drought risk assessment.

A critical review of environmental impact statements in Sri Lanka with particular reference to ecological impact assessment.

PubMed

Samarakoon, Miriya; Rowan, John S

2008-03-01

This article critically reviews environmental assessment (EA) practices in Sri Lanka, with a particular focus on ecology. An overview is provided of the domestic and international influences which have shaped the administrative process which is currently a two-tiered scheme. An Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) provides a preliminary screening tool, prior to the requirement for a full Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). A comprehensive survey of Sri Lankan national archives showed that 463 EAs were completed in the period 1981-2005, with the bulk of these in the more populated Western and North Western Provinces. Two-thirds were IEE surveys, while the remaining third advanced to full EIA. A representative sample of 130 EAs (both IEEs and full EIAs) spanning a broad range of project types, scales, and environmental settings was selected to evaluate the quality of the ecological investigations within the published environmental impact statements (EISs). These were assigned into five classes of "explanatory power", on the basis of their scientific content in relation to survey, analysis, and reporting of ecological interests. Within most EISs, the ecological impact assessment (EcIA) was restricted to the lowest two categories of ecological assessment, i.e., tokenistic presentation of reconnaissance-level species lists without further analysis of the development implications for individual organisms or communities. None of the assessments reviewed provided statistically rigorous analysis, which would be required if ecological impact studies are to include quantitative and testable predictions of impact, which could then be followed up by appropriate post-impact monitoring programs. Attention to key local issues such as biodiversity or ecosystem services, which also have strong social dimensions in the developing world, was also notably underrepresented. It was thus concluded that despite the existence of a sound legislative framework in Sri Lanka, the analysis contained within EISs generally fails to convey meaningful information to the relevant stakeholders and decision makers involved in protecting ecological interests and promoting sustainable development. The introduction of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is considered an important tool to strengthen the institutional capacity of Sri Lankan government to implement current regulations and, in particular, to combat the cumulative effects of incremental development.

Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands in the Southeastern United States: Climate Change Research Results, 1992-97.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

pro- jected to have significant regional impacts on resource management and use of these public lands . Southeastern coastal wetlands have also... land tree and shrub species. Measures of plant physiological activity using experi- mentally simulated environmental conditions predicted to occur...Hence, short- term rates of marsh transgression may be meaningless and may not be useful tools to predict wetland habitat change, at least for some

Information theory and the neuropeptidergic regulation of seasonal reproduction in mammals and birds

PubMed Central

Stevenson, Tyler J.; Ball, Gregory F.

2011-01-01

Seasonal breeding in the temperate zone is a dramatic example of a naturally occurring change in physiology and behaviour. Cues that predict periods of environmental amelioration favourable for breeding must be processed by the brain so that the appropriate responses in reproductive physiology can be implemented. The neural integration of several environmental cues converges on discrete hypothalamic neurons in order to regulate reproductive physiology. Gonadotrophin-releasing hormone-1 (GnRH1) and Kisspeptin (Kiss1) neurons in avian and mammalian species, respectively, show marked variation in expression that is positively associated with breeding state. We applied the constancy/contingency model of predictability to investigate how GnRH1 and Kiss1 integrate different environmental cues to regulate reproduction. We show that variation in GnRH1 from a highly seasonal avian species exhibits a predictive change that is primarily based on contingency information. Opportunistic species have low measures of predictability and exhibit a greater contribution of constancy information that is sex-dependent. In hamsters, Kiss1 exhibited a predictive change in expression that was predominantly contingency information and is anatomically localized. The model applied here provides a framework for studies geared towards determining the impact of variation in climate patterns to reproductive success in vertebrate species. PMID:21208957

Projected impacts of climate change on environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa.

PubMed

Yamana, Teresa K; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of environmental suitability for malaria transmission by altering temperature and rainfall patterns; however, the local and global impacts of climate change on malaria transmission are uncertain. We assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa. We coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates. Because there is strong disagreement in climate predictions from different GCMs, we focused on the GCM projections that produced the best and worst conditions for malaria transmission in each zone of the study area. Simulation-based estimates suggest that in the desert fringes of the Sahara, vectorial capacity would increase under the worst-case scenario, but not enough to sustain transmission. In the transitional zone of the Sahel, climate change is predicted to decrease vectorial capacity. In the wetter regions to the south, our estimates suggest an increase in vectorial capacity under all scenarios. However, because malaria is already highly endemic among human populations in these regions, we expect that changes in malaria incidence would be small. Our findings highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the GCM predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, we do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region.

Functional and environmental assessment of the urboecosystems designed in the biologically reclamated landfill with industrial wastes (in Ryazan city)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karyakin, Alexey; Vasenev, Ivan; Karyakina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

Regional environmental bodies' ability to understand, model and predict their soil cover environmental functions are especially important in case of landfill reclamation. The special attention has to be done to landfills with industrial wastes created earlier in frame of big city - comparatively closed to their residential areas. Dominated in Ryazan region sandy loam gray forest soils with not so high soil organic matter content and soil exchange capacity determine additional problems with landfill biological reclamation and continuous sustainable vegetation cover development. The modern environmental monitoring system has been developed in the big landfill with tanning industrial wastes from the biggest in Europe tannery to develop recommendation on the environmentally friendly reclamation technologies adapted to concrete landscape conditions and functional features of 2 m fresh soil-ground coating the landfill surface. More detailed monitoring system has to be developed to assess the regulatory environmental functions of the regenerated soil cover to minimize the reclamated landfill' negative impacts on the urban ecosystem air, surface and ground water quality. Obtained result will be useful for similar landfills with tanning industrial wastes environmental impact assessment and smart design.

Ready or Not: Microbial Adaptive Responses in Dynamic Symbiosis Environments.

PubMed

Cao, Mengyi; Goodrich-Blair, Heidi

2017-08-01

In mutually beneficial and pathogenic symbiotic associations, microbes must adapt to the host environment for optimal fitness. Both within an individual host and during transmission between hosts, microbes are exposed to temporal and spatial variation in environmental conditions. The phenomenon of phenotypic variation, in which different subpopulations of cells express distinctive and potentially adaptive characteristics, can contribute to microbial adaptation to a lifestyle that includes rapidly changing environments. The environments experienced by a symbiotic microbe during its life history can be erratic or predictable, and each can impact the evolution of adaptive responses. In particular, the predictability of a rhythmic or cyclical series of environments may promote the evolution of signal transduction cascades that allow preadaptive responses to environments that are likely to be encountered in the future, a phenomenon known as adaptive prediction. In this review, we summarize environmental variations known to occur in some well-studied models of symbiosis and how these may contribute to the evolution of microbial population heterogeneity and anticipatory behavior. We provide details about the symbiosis between Xenorhabdus bacteria and Steinernema nematodes as a model to investigate the concept of environmental adaptation and adaptive prediction in a microbial symbiosis. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

The Impact of Youth Risk on Mentoring Relationship Quality: Do Mentor Characteristics Matter?

PubMed

Raposa, Elizabeth B; Rhodes, Jean E; Herrera, Carla

2016-06-01

Although mentoring is a widely used intervention strategy, effect sizes for at-risk youth remain modest. Research is therefore needed to maximize the impact of mentoring for at-risk youth who might struggle to benefit from mentoring relationships. This study tested the hypothesis that different types of youth risk would have a negative impact on mentoring relationship quality and duration and explored whether mentor characteristics exacerbated or mitigated these negative effects. Results showed that elevated environmental stress at a youth's home and/or school predicted shorter match duration, and elevated rates of youth behavioral problems, such as poor academic performance or misconduct, predicted greater youth dissatisfaction and less positive mentor perceptions of relationship quality. Mentors with greater self-efficacy and more previous involvement with youth in their communities were able to buffer the negative effects of environmental stress on match duration. Similarly, mentors' previous involvement with youth buffered the negative effects of youth behavioral problems on mentor perceptions of relationship quality. Findings have important implications for the matching of mentors and at-risk youth in a way that improves mentoring outcomes. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

Impact of representation of hydraulic structures in modelling a Severn barrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, Samuel; Ahmadian, Reza; Falconer, Roger A.

2016-04-01

In this study, enhancements to the numerical representation of sluice gates and turbines were made to the hydro-environmental model Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), and applied to the Severn Tidal Power Group Cardiff-Weston Barrage. The extended domain of the EFDC Continental Shelf Model (CSM) allows far-field hydrodynamic impact assessment of the Severn Barrage, pre- and post-enhancement, to demonstrate the importance of accurate hydraulic structure representation. The enhancements were found to significantly affect peak water levels in the Bristol Channel, reducing levels by nearly 1 m in some areas, and even affect predictions as far-field as the West Coast of Scotland, albeit to a far lesser extent. The model was tested for sensitivity to changes in the discharge coefficient, Cd, used in calculating discharge through sluice gates and turbines. It was found that the performance of the Severn Barrage is not sensitive to changes to the Cd value, and is mitigated through the continual, rather than instantaneous, discharge across the structure. The EFDC CSM can now be said to be more accurately predicting the impacts of tidal range proposals, and the investigation of sensitivity to Cd improves the confidence in the modelling results, despite the uncertainty in this coefficient.

Human impacts and changes in the coastal waters of south China.

PubMed

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Bi, Hongsheng; Mao, Xian-Zhong

2016-08-15

Human impact on the environment remains at the center of the debate on global environmental change. Using the Hong Kong-Shenzhen corridor in south China as an example, we present evidence that rapid urbanization and economic development in coastal areas were the dominant factors causing rapid changes in coastal waters. From 1990 to 2012, coastal seawater temperature increased ~0.060°C per year, sea level rose 4.4mm per year and pH decreased from 8.2 to 7.7, much faster than global averages. In the same period, there were exponential increases in the local population, gross domestic product and land fill area. Empirical analyses suggest that the large increase in the population affected local temperature, and economic development had a major impact on local pH. Results also show that pH and temperature were significantly correlated with local sea level rise, but pH had more predictive power, suggesting it could be considered a predictor for changes in local sea level. We conclude that human activities could significantly exacerbate local environmental changes which should be considered in predictive models and future development plans in coastal areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advancing Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the Polar Regions and Beyond during The Year of Polar Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Kirstin; Goessling, Helge; Hoke, Winfried; Kirchhoff, Katharina; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

Environmental changes in polar regions open up new opportunities for economic and societal operations such as vessel traffic related to scientific, fishery and tourism activities, and in the case of the Arctic also enhanced resource development. The availability of current and accurate weather and environmental information and forecasts will therefore play an increasingly important role in aiding risk reduction and safety management around the poles. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been established by the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Research Programme as the key activity of the ten-year Polar Prediction Project (PPP; see more on www.polarprediction.net). YOPP is an internationally coordinated initiative to significantly advance our environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, supporting improved weather and climate services. Scheduled to take place from mid-2017 to mid-2019, the YOPP core phase covers an extended period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities in the Arctic and Antarctic, on a wide range of time scales from hours to seasons. The Year of Polar Prediction will entail periods of enhanced observational and modelling campaigns in both polar regions. With the purpose to close the gaps in the conventional polar observing systems in regions where the observation network is sparse, routine observations will be enhanced during Special Observing Periods for an extended period of time (several weeks) during YOPP. This will allow carrying out subsequent forecasting system experiments aimed at optimizing observing systems in the polar regions and providing insight into the impact of better polar observations on forecast skills in lower latitudes. With various activities and the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with polar climate change.

The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, R.; Liu, H.

2016-02-01

Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

Impact of Apex Model parameterization strategy on estimated benefit of conservation practices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Three parameterized Agriculture Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) models for corn-soybean rotation on clay pan soils were developed with the objectives, 1. Evaluate model performance of three parameterization strategies on a validation watershed; and 2. Compare predictions of water quality benefi...

Antecedent conditions influence soil respiration differences in shrub and grass patches

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying the response of soil respiration to past environmental conditions is critical for predicting how future climate and vegetation change will impact ecosystem carbon balance. Increased shrub dominance in semiarid grasslands has potentially large effects on soil carbon cycling. The goal of t...

GREENER CHEMICAL PROCESS DESIGN ALTERNATIVES ARE REVEALED USING THE WASTE REDUCTION DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (WAR DSS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Waste Reduction Decision Support System (WAR DSS) is a Java-based software product providing comprehensive modeling of potential adverse environmental impacts (PEI) predicted to result from newly designed or redesigned chemical manufacturing processes. The purpose of this so...

Intensification of hydrological drought due to human activity in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Dan; Zhang, Qi; Qiu, Jiaming; Bai, Peng; Liang, Kang; Li, Xianghu

2018-10-01

Hydrological extremes are changing under the impacts of environmental change, i.e., climate variation and human activity, which can substantially influence ecosystems and the living environment of humans in affected region. This study investigates the impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China based on hydrological modelling. Change points for streamflow into two major lakes and a reservoir in the study area were detected in the late 1980s using the Mann-Kendall test. Streamflow simulation by a water balance model was performed, and the resulting Kling-Gupta efficiency value was >0.90. Hydrological drought events were identified based on the simulated streamflow under different scenarios. The results show that the hydrological drought occurrence was increased by precipitation, whereas the drought peak value was increased by potential evapotranspiration. The impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on drought severity and duration varied in the study area. However, hydrological drought was intensified by the influence of human activity, which increased the severity, duration and peak value of droughts. The dominant factor for hydrological drought severity is precipitation, followed by potential evapotranspiration and human activity. The impacts of climate variation and human activity on drought severity are larger than on drought duration. In addition, environmental change is shown to have an "accumulation effect" on hydrological drought, demonstrating that the indirect impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought are much larger than the direct impacts on streamflow. This study improves our understanding of the responses of hydrological extremes to environmental change, which is useful for the management of water resources and the prediction of hydrological disasters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the visual quality impacts of development: a simulation of alternative policies for implementing the Massachusetts Scenic and Recreational Rivers Act

Treesearch

Carl Steinitz

1979-01-01

An implementation work program has been de-veloped by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management (MASS D.E.M.) for the Massachusetts Scenic and Recreational Rivers Act, and the North River has been chosen as the pilot project area. The question which has been posed by MASS D.E.M. is: "What will be the impacts of eleven alternative implementation...

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-09-22

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

An approach for quantifying geomorphological impacts for EIA of transportation infrastructures: a case study in northern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonachea, Jaime; Bruschi, Viola Maria; Remondo, Juan; González-Díez, Alberto; Salas, Luis; Bertens, Jurjen; Cendrero, Antonio; Otero, César; Giusti, Cecilia; Fabbri, Andrea; González-Lastra, José Ramón; Aramburu, José María

2005-03-01

A methodological proposal for the assessment of impacts due to linear infrastructures such as motorways, railways, etc. is presented. The approach proposed includes a series of specific issues to be addressed for each geomorphological feature analysed—both 'static' and 'dynamic'—as well as a series of steps to be followed in the process. Geomorphic characteristics potentially affected were initially identified on the basis of a conceptual activities/impacts model that helps to single out geomorphic impacts related to environmental concerns for the area. The following issues were addressed for each individual impact: nature of potential effects; indicators that can be used to measure impacts; criteria of 'geomorphologic performance'; procedure for measurement/prediction of changes; translation of geomorphologic impacts into significant terms from the viewpoint of human concerns; possible mitigation and/or compensation measures. The procedure has been applied to a case study corresponding to a new motorway in the Basque Country, northern Spain. Geomorphological impacts considered in this analysis included: (1) consumable resources; (2) sites of geomorphological interest; (3) land units with high potential for use, high productivity or value for conservation; (4) visual landscape; (5) slope instability processes. The procedure has been designed for implementation in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Details are given on the application of the method to each individual impact analysed and results are presented in both numerical and map form. Impacts assessed were initially expressed by means of heterogeneous magnitudes, depending on the geomorphological feature considered. Those geomorphological impacts were then translated into significant terms and homogeneous magnitudes. Integration was carried out on the basis of impact values thus obtained. Final integrated results were also expressed in numerical and map form. The method proposed enables comparison of alternatives as well as 'prediction' and assessment of impacts in terms directly related to geomorphic characteristics. It also facilitates the expression of those impacts in terms that allow integration with other types of environmental impacts.

Biomechanics meets the ecological niche: the importance of temporal data resolution.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael R; Matzelle, Allison; Helmuth, Brian

2012-03-15

The emerging field of mechanistic niche modelling aims to link the functional traits of organisms to their environments to predict survival, reproduction, distribution and abundance. This approach has great potential to increase our understanding of the impacts of environmental change on individuals, populations and communities by providing functional connections between physiological and ecological response to increasingly available spatial environmental data. By their nature, such mechanistic models are more data intensive in comparison with the more widely applied correlative approaches but can potentially provide more spatially and temporally explicit predictions, which are often needed by decision makers. A poorly explored issue in this context is the appropriate level of temporal resolution of input data required for these models, and specifically the error in predictions that can be incurred through the use of temporally averaged data. Here, we review how biomechanical principles from heat-transfer and metabolic theory are currently being used as foundations for mechanistic niche models and consider the consequences of different temporal resolutions of environmental data for modelling the niche of a behaviourally thermoregulating terrestrial lizard. We show that fine-scale temporal resolution (daily) data can be crucial for unbiased inference of climatic impacts on survival, growth and reproduction. This is especially so for species with little capacity for behavioural buffering, because of behavioural or habitat constraints, and for detecting temporal trends. However, coarser-resolution data (long-term monthly averages) can be appropriate for mechanistic studies of climatic constraints on distribution and abundance limits in thermoregulating species at broad spatial scales.

Autonomy and Housing Accessibility Among Powered Mobility Device Users

PubMed Central

Brandt, Åse; Lexell, Eva Månsson; Iwarsson, Susanne

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE. To describe environmental barriers, accessibility problems, and powered mobility device (PMD) users’ autonomy indoors and outdoors; to determine the home environmental barriers that generated the most housing accessibility problems indoors, at entrances, and in the close exterior surroundings; and to examine personal factors and environmental components and their association with indoor and outdoor autonomy. METHOD. This cross-sectional study was based on data collected from a sample of 48 PMD users with a spinal cord injury (SCI) using the Impact of Participation and Autonomy and the Housing Enabler instruments. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used. RESULTS. More years living with SCI predicted less restriction in autonomy indoors, whereas more functional limitations and accessibility problems related to entrance doors predicted more restriction in autonomy outdoors. CONCLUSION. To enable optimized PMD use, practitioners must pay attention to the relationship between client autonomy and housing accessibility problems. PMID:26356666

Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation.

PubMed

Lemming, Gitte; Chambon, Julie C; Binning, Philip J; Bjerg, Poul L

2012-12-15

A comparative life cycle assessment is presented for four different management options for a trichloroethene-contaminated site with a contaminant source zone located in a fractured clay till. The compared options are (i) long-term monitoring (ii) in-situ enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD), (iii) in-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) with permanganate and (iv) long-term monitoring combined with treatment by activated carbon at the nearby waterworks. The life cycle assessment included evaluation of both primary and secondary environmental impacts. The primary impacts are the local human toxic impacts due to contaminant leaching into groundwater that is used for drinking water, whereas the secondary environmental impacts are related to remediation activities such as monitoring, drilling and construction of wells and use of remedial amendments. The primary impacts for the compared scenarios were determined by a numerical risk assessment and remedial performance model, which predicted the contaminant mass discharge over time at a point of compliance in the aquifer and at the waterworks. The combined assessment of risk reduction and life cycle impacts showed that all management options result in higher environmental impacts than they remediate, in terms of person equivalents and assuming equal weighting of all impacts. The ERD and long-term monitoring were the scenarios with the lowest secondary life cycle impacts and are therefore the preferred alternatives. However, if activated carbon treatment at the waterworks is required in the long-term monitoring scenario, then it becomes unfavorable because of large secondary impacts. ERD is favorable due to its low secondary impacts, but only if leaching of vinyl chloride to the groundwater aquifer can be avoided. Remediation with ISCO caused the highest secondary impacts and cannot be recommended for the site. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-scale metrics approach to forest fragmentation for Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Eunyoung, E-mail: eykim@kei.re.kr; Song, Wonkyong, E-mail: wksong79@gmail.com; Lee, Dongkun, E-mail: dklee7@snu.ac.kr

Forests are becoming severely fragmented as a result of land development. South Korea has responded to changing community concerns about environmental issues. The nation has developed and is extending a broad range of tools for use in environmental management. Although legally mandated environmental compliance requirements in South Korea have been implemented to predict and evaluate the impacts of land-development projects, these legal instruments are often insufficient to assess the subsequent impact of development on the surrounding forests. It is especially difficult to examine impacts on multiple (e.g., regional and local) scales in detail. Forest configuration and size, including forest fragmentationmore » by land development, are considered on a regional scale. Moreover, forest structure and composition, including biodiversity, are considered on a local scale in the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Recently, the government amended the Environmental Impact Assessment Act, including the SEA, EIA, and small-scale EIA, to require an integrated approach. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish an impact assessment system that minimizes the impacts of land development using an approach that is integrated across multiple scales. This study focused on forest fragmentation due to residential development and road construction sites in selected Congestion Restraint Zones (CRZs) in the Greater Seoul Area of South Korea. Based on a review of multiple-scale impacts, this paper integrates models that assess the impacts of land development on forest ecosystems. The applicability of the integrated model for assessing impacts on forest ecosystems through the SEIA process is considered. On a regional scale, it is possible to evaluate the location and size of a land-development project by considering aspects of forest fragmentation, such as the stability of the forest structure and the degree of fragmentation. On a local scale, land-development projects should consider the distances at which impacts occur in the vicinity of the forest ecosystem, and these considerations should include the impacts on forest vegetation and bird species. Impacts can be mitigated by considering the distances at which these influences occur. In particular, this paper presents an integrated environmental impact assessment system to be applied in the SEIA process. The integrated assessment system permits the assessment of the cumulative impacts of land development on multiple scales. -- Highlights: • The model is to assess the impact of forest fragmentation across multiple scales. • The paper suggests the type of forest fragmentation on a regional scale. • The type can be used to evaluate the location and size of a land development. • The paper shows the influence distance of land development on a local scale. • The distance can be used to mitigate the impact at an EIA process.« less

The nature of cumulative impacts on biotic diversity of wetland vertebrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Larry D.

1988-09-01

There is no longer any doubt that cumulative impacts have important effects on wetland vertebrates. Interactions of species diversity and community structure produce a complex pattern in which environmental impacts can play a highly significant role. Various examples show how wetlands maintain the biotic diversity within and among vertebrate populations, and some of the ways that environmental perturbations can interact to reduce this diversity. The trophic and habitat pyramids are useful organizing concepts. Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects at all levels, reducing the usable range of the larger habitat generalists while threatening the genetic integrity of small, isolated populations. The complexity of trophic interactions, and the propensity, or necessity, of vertebrates to switch from one food source to another—something we know little about—makes using food chain support as a variable for predicting environmental impacts very questionable. Historical instances illustrate the effects of the accumulation of impacts on vertebrates. At present it is nearly impossible to predict the result of three or more different kinds of perturbations, although long-range effects can be observed. One case in point is waterfowl; while their ingestion of lead shot, harvesting by hunters during migration, and loss of habitat have caused waterfowl populations to decline, the proportional responsibility of these factors has not been determined. Further examples show multiplicative effects of similar actions, effects with long time lags, diffuse processes in the landscape that may have concentrated effects on a component subsystem, and a variety of other interactions of increasing complexity. Not only is more information needed at all levels; impacts must be assessed on a landscape or regional scale to produce informed management decisions. I conclude that a system of replicate wetland reserves that are allowed to interact naturally with the surrounding landscape will be more effective in preserving biotic diversity than isolated sanctuaries.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

Assessment of hydrogen sulfide emission from a sewage treatment plant using AERMOD.

PubMed

Baawain, Mahad; Al-Mamun, Abdullah; Omidvarborna, Hamid; Al-Jabri, Abdullah

2017-06-01

Air quality modeling plays an important role in prediction of air pollutants in urban areas. Moreover, it is also an essential component to make crucial decisions in environmental management. In this study, environmental protection agency (EPA) regulatory model (AERMOD) was implemented in order to assess the urban air quality in the city of Muscat, Sultanate of Oman. Dispersion modeling was employed for the prediction of hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) emissions, a neighborhood claimed issue, from Al-Ansab sewage treatment plant (STP). Meteorological, elevation data, and H 2 S survey results were implemented into the model. From the site survey study, four different H 2 S emission sources were identified as sewage tanker connection points, biofilter, old odor control unit (OCU), and open channels of raw sewage. It was observed that based on maximum 24-h analysis, the ground level concentration outside the STP exceeded the concentration limit, 40 μg/m 3 , recommended by the local regulating agency in Oman. By applying a sensitivity analysis study, the locations with the highest predicted H 2 S levels were identified. The most affected area in the worst-case scenario was the nearby expressway with 450.9 μg/m 3 of H 2 S. The highest ground level concentration of H 2 S was detected in March, while the lowest was measured in December. The model also predicted that the impact of odor nuisance is greater at the summer season than that of other seasons due to the elevated temperatures. The study revealed an adverse environmental impact from the STPs on urban air quality, which may pose a threat to the public health.

Simulating polar bear energetics during a seasonal fast using a mechanistic model.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Porter, Warren P

2013-01-01

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal's energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change.

Simulating Polar Bear Energetics during a Seasonal Fast Using a Mechanistic Model

PubMed Central

Mathewson, Paul D.; Porter, Warren P.

2013-01-01

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal’s energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change. PMID:24019883

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands

PubMed Central

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J.; Wilkinson, Tim P.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.; McAdam, Jim H.; Moat, Justin F.

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements. PMID:27880846

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands.

PubMed

Upson, Rebecca; Williams, Jennifer J; Wilkinson, Tim P; Clubbe, Colin P; Maclean, Ilya M D; McAdam, Jim H; Moat, Justin F

2016-01-01

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020-2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

Tick exposure and extreme climate events impact survival and threaten the persistence of a long-lived lizard.

PubMed

Jones, Alice R; Bull, C Michael; Brook, Barry W; Wells, Konstans; Pollock, Kenneth H; Fordham, Damien A

2016-03-01

Assessing the impacts of multiple, often synergistic, stressors on the population dynamics of long-lived species is becoming increasingly important due to recent and future global change. Tiliqua rugosa (sleepy lizard) is a long-lived skink (>30 years) that is adapted to survive in semi-arid environments with varying levels of parasite exposure and highly seasonal food availability. We used an exhaustive database of 30 years of capture-mark-recapture records to quantify the impacts of both parasite exposure and environmental conditions on the lizard's survival rates and long-term population dynamics. Lizard abundance was relatively stable throughout the study period; however, there were changing patterns in adult and juvenile apparent survival rates, driven by spatial and temporal variation in levels of tick exposure and temporal variation in environmental conditions. Extreme weather events during the winter and spring seasons were identified as important environmental drivers of survival. Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme hot and dry winter and spring seasons in our South Australian study region; from a contemporary probability of 0.17 up to 0.47-0.83 in 2080 depending on the emissions scenario. Our stochastic population model projections showed that these future climatic conditions will induce a decline in the abundance of this long-lived reptile of up to 67% within 30 years from 2080, under worst case scenario modelling. The results have broad implications for future work investigating the drivers of population dynamics and persistence. We highlight the importance of long-term data sets and accounting for synergistic impacts between multiple stressors. We show that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme climate events have the potential to considerably and negatively influence a long-lived species, which might previously have been assumed to be resilient to environmental perturbations. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

An attempt for modeling the atmospheric transport of 3H around Kakrapar Atomic Power Station.

PubMed

Patra, A K; Nankar, D P; Joshi, C P; Venkataraman, S; Sundar, D; Hegde, A G

2008-01-01

Prediction of downwind tritium air concentrations in the environment around Kakrapar Atomic Power Station (KAPS) was studied on the basis of Gaussian plume dispersion model. The tritium air concentration by field measurement [measured tritium air concentrations in the areas adjacent to KAPS] were compared with the theoretically calculated values (predicted) to validate the model. This approach will be useful in evaluating environmental radiological impacts due to pressurised heavy water reactors.

Empirical prediction of peak pressure levels in anthropogenic impulsive noise. Part I: Airgun arrays signals.

PubMed

Galindo-Romero, Marta; Lippert, Tristan; Gavrilov, Alexander

2015-12-01

This paper presents an empirical linear equation to predict peak pressure level of anthropogenic impulsive signals based on its correlation with the sound exposure level. The regression coefficients are shown to be weakly dependent on the environmental characteristics but governed by the source type and parameters. The equation can be applied to values of the sound exposure level predicted with a numerical model, which provides a significant improvement in the prediction of the peak pressure level. Part I presents the analysis for airgun arrays signals, and Part II considers the application of the empirical equation to offshore impact piling noise.

Modeling emissions and environmental impacts of transportation activities associated with high volume horizontal hydraulic fracturing operations in the Marcellus Shale Formation : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-09-18

The researchers' initial University Transportation Research Center (UTRC) research project identified routes and road segments with predicted high volumes of truck traffic related to natural gas extraction in the Marcellus Shale region. Results also ...

Estimating the impact of grouping misclassification on risk prediction when using the relative potency factors method to assess mixtures risk

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental health risk assessments of chemical mixtures that rely on component approaches often begin by grouping the chemicals of concern according to toxicological similarity. Approaches that assume dose addition typically are used for groups of similarly-acting chemicals an...

Gene Expression in Developing Brain is Altered by Modest Reductions in Circulating Levels of Thyroid Hormone.

EPA Science Inventory

Disruption of thyroid hormone (TH) homeostasis is a known effect of environmental contaminants. Although animal models of developmental TH deficiency can predict the impact of severe insults to the thyroid system, the effects of moderate TH insufficiencies have not been adequatel...

Computational embryology as an integrative platform for predictive DART (45th Conf of Europ Teratology Society)

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical regulation is challenged by the large number of chemicals requiring assessment for potential human health and environmental impacts. For example, the USEPA lists more than 85,000 chemicals on its inventory of substances that fall under the Toxic Substances Control Act (T...

Predicting the unpredictable: potential climate change impacts on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; David W. Peterson; Becky Kerns

2016-01-01

Earth's climate is changing, as evidenced by warming temperatures, increased temperature variability, fluctuating precipitation patterns, and climate-related environmental disturbances. And with considerable uncertainty about the future, Forest Service land managers are now considering climate change adaptation in their planning efforts. They want practical...

Predicting Fire Season Severity in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Paul Werth

2006-01-01

Projections of fire season severity that integrate historical weather and fire information can be used by fire managers when making decisions about allocating and prioritizing firefighting resources. They enable fire managers to anticipate fire activity and pre-position resources to maximize public and firefighter safety, reduce environmental impacts, and lower...

Predicting Adaptive Functioning of Mentally Retarded Persons in Community Settings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hull, John T.; Thompson, Joy C.

1980-01-01

The impact of a variety of individual, residential, and community variables on adaptive functioning of 369 retarded persons (18 to 73 years old) was examined using a multiple regression analysis. Individual characteristics (especially IQ) accounted for 21 percent of the variance, while environmental variables, primarily those related to…

What's stopping the recycling of recovered CCA-treated lumber

Treesearch

R. Smith; D. Alderman; Philip A. Araman

2002-01-01

The awareness and concerns regarding the environmental impacts and disposal of chromated copper arsenate (CCA) treated wood products are increasing. Several investigators predict that the quantities of CCA-treated lumber will increase significantly in the upcoming decades. Additionally, with the number of landfills decreasing, landfill tipping fees increasing, and...

Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we develop a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses cl...

Gene Expression as a Biomarker of Effect of Thyroid Hormone Action in Developing Brain: Relation to Serum Hormones.

EPA Science Inventory

Disruption of thyroid hormone (TH) homeostasis is a known effect of environmental contaminants. Although animal models of developmental TH deficiency can predict the impact of severe insults to the thyroid system, the effects of moderate TH insufficiencies have proved more diffic...

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure.

PubMed

Dyble, Julianne; Bienfang, Paul; Dusek, Eva; Hitchcock, Gary; Holland, Fred; Laws, Ed; Lerczak, James; McGillicuddy, Dennis J; Minnett, Peter; Moore, Stephanie K; O'Kelly, Charles; Solo-Gabriele, Helena; Wang, John D

2008-11-07

Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

The marketing activities of hospitals: environmental, organizational, and managerial influences.

PubMed

Myrtle, R C; Martinez, C F

1991-03-01

This article reports the results of a study designed to examine the relationship of environmental, organizational and structural factors, perceptions of key decision makers about competitive conditions, and changes in operational performance with the level of the marketing activities engaged in by 145 California hospitals. Measures assessing the impact of environmental conditions and the perception of the key decision makers were found to be related to the marketing activities of the organization. However, the relationship between measures which examined the structural and performance impacts on the marketing activities did not demonstrate the same predictive ability. The results suggest that marketing activities were affected by the key decision maker's assessment of the competitive nature of the environment, influence of key stakeholders, and tangible changes in the organization's task environment. Performance and other measures were not found to be as influential in determining these activities.

Pharmaceutical management through environmental product labeling in Sweden.

PubMed

Wennmalm, Ake; Gunnarsson, Bo

2009-07-01

There is an increased awareness that medicinal products for human use may cause negative effects in the environment. In Sweden a voluntary environmental classification system for drugs has been established in collaboration between producers, authorities and the public health care, and used for five years. The idea is to enhance the market demand for medicines with less environmental impact, which in turn will stimulate the producers to design future medicines to be more environmentally friendly. The system is open to the public and based on assessment of the active ingredient in the medicinal product into several classes of risk and hazard, respectively. It is closely related to the EMEA guidelines. Risk is expressed as the ratio between the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) of the active ingredient (AI) and its predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). The hazard is expressed in terms of the AI's persistence, potential to bioaccumulation, and eco-toxicity. Drug data for the classification are delivered by the respective producers. Hitherto more than 300 AI, representing more than 50% of the Swedish volume of drug use, have been classified. Data for risk assessment were missing in 47% of AI. Among drugs with data 7% had a PEC/PNEC ratio >1, and another 7% had a ratio between 0.1 and 1. The AIs with highest ratio (>10) were two estrogens. Data for hazard assessment were lacking in 16% of the AI. Among drugs with environmental data 92% were not ready biodegradable, 23% had potential to bioaccumulation, and 61% were toxic to aquatic organisms at a concentration below 1 mg/l. These data are utilized by regional pharmaceutical expert groups when selecting substances to be recommended in public health care in Sweden. They may also be used by prescribing doctors who want to identify the environmentally most favourable substance among several with equivalent medical effect. We conclude that environmental data on human medicinal products are often missing, or reveal unfavourable environmental properties. A proper judgement of the environmental impact of an AI requires a joint evaluation of its risk and hazard. We suggest that the pharmaceutical producers should highlight environmental precaution when designing new AIs, and that the environmental data should be transparent to the general public.

Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Corsi, Steven R.

2013-01-01

At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

Surrogate species selection for assessing potential adverse environmental impacts of genetically engineered insect-resistant plants on non-target organisms

PubMed Central

Carstens, Keri; Cayabyab, Bonifacio; De Schrijver, Adinda; Gadaleta, Patricia G; Hellmich, Richard L; Romeis, Jörg; Storer, Nicholas; Valicente, Fernando H; Wach, Michael

2014-01-01

Most regulatory authorities require that developers of genetically engineered insect-resistant (GEIR) crops evaluate the potential for these crops to have adverse impacts on valued non-target organisms (NTOs), i.e., organisms not intended to be controlled by the trait. In many cases, impacts to NTOs are assessed using surrogate species, and it is critical that the data derived from surrogates accurately predict any adverse impacts likely to be observed from the use of the crop in the agricultural context. The key is to select surrogate species that best represent the valued NTOs in the location where the crop is going to be introduced, but this selection process poses numerous challenges for the developers of GE crops who will perform the tests, as well as for the ecologists and regulators who will interpret the test results. These issues were the subject of a conference “Surrogate Species Selection for Assessing Potential Adverse Environmental Impacts of Genetically Engineered Plants on Non-Target Organisms” convened by the Center for Environmental Risk Assessment, ILSI Research Foundation. This report summarizes the proceedings of the conference, including the presentations, discussions and the points of consensus agreed to by the participants. PMID:24637519

Development of environmental impact monitoring protocol for offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS): A biological perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Hyewon, E-mail: hyewon@ldeo.columbia.edu; Kim, Yong Hoon, E-mail: Yong.Kim@rpsgroup.com; Kang, Seong-Gil, E-mail: kangsg@kriso.re.kr

Offshore geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), known as offshore carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), has been under active investigation as a safe, effective mitigation option for reducing CO{sub 2} levels from anthropogenic fossil fuel burning and climate change. Along with increasing trends in implementation plans and related logistics on offshore CCS, thorough risk assessment (i.e. environmental impact monitoring) needs to be conducted to evaluate potential risks, such as CO{sub 2} gas leakage at injection sites. Gas leaks from offshore CCS may affect the physiology of marine organisms and disrupt certain ecosystem functions, thereby posing an environmental risk. Here,more » we synthesize current knowledge on environmental impact monitoring of offshore CCS with an emphasis on biological aspects and provide suggestions for better practice. Based on our critical review of preexisting literatures, this paper: 1) discusses key variables sensitive to or indicative of gas leakage by summarizing physico-chemical and ecological variables measured from previous monitoring cruises on offshore CCS; 2) lists ecosystem and organism responses to a similar environmental condition to CO{sub 2} leakage and associated impacts, such as ocean acidification and hypercapnia, to predict how they serve as responsive indicators of short- and long-term gas exposure, and 3) discusses the designs of the artificial gas release experiments in fields and the best model simulation to produce realistic leakage scenarios in marine ecosystems. Based on our analysis, we suggest that proper incorporation of biological aspects will provide successful and robust long-term monitoring strategies with earlier detection of gas leakage, thus reducing the risks associated with offshore CCS. - Highlights: • This paper synthesizes the current knowledge on environmental impact monitoring of offshore Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). • Impacts of CO{sub 2} leakage (ocean acidification, hypercapnia) on marine organisms and ecosystems are discussed. • Insights and recommendations on EIA monitoring for CCS operations are proposed specifically in marine ecosystem perspective.« less

Computational estimation of rainbow trout estrogen receptor binding affinities for environmental estrogens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shyu, Conrad; Cavileer, Timothy D.; Nagler, James J.

2011-02-01

Environmental estrogens have been the subject of intense research due to their documented detrimental effects on the health of fish and wildlife and their potential to negatively impact humans. A complete understanding of how these compounds affect health is complicated because environmental estrogens are a structurally heterogeneous group of compounds. In this work, computational molecular dynamics simulations were utilized to predict the binding affinity of different compounds using rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) estrogen receptors (ERs) as a model. Specifically, this study presents a comparison of the binding affinity of the natural ligand estradiol-17{beta} to the four rainbow trout ER isoformsmore » with that of three known environmental estrogens 17{alpha}-ethinylestradiol, bisphenol A, and raloxifene. Two additional compounds, atrazine and testosterone, that are known to be very weak or non-binders to ERs were tested. The binding affinity of these compounds to the human ER{alpha} subtype is also included for comparison. The results of this study suggest that, when compared to estradiol-17{beta}, bisphenol A binds less strongly to all four receptors, 17{alpha}-ethinylestradiol binds more strongly, and raloxifene has a high affinity for the {alpha} subtype only. The results also show that atrazine and testosterone are weak or non-binders to the ERs. All of the results are in excellent qualitative agreement with the known in vivo estrogenicity of these compounds in the rainbow trout and other fishes. Computational estimation of binding affinities could be a valuable tool for predicting the impact of environmental estrogens in fish and other animals.« less

Modeling multi-scale aerosol dynamics and micro-environmental air quality near a large highway intersection using the CTAG model.

PubMed

Wang, Yan Jason; Nguyen, Monica T; Steffens, Jonathan T; Tong, Zheming; Wang, Yungang; Hopke, Philip K; Zhang, K Max

2013-01-15

A new methodology, referred to as the multi-scale structure, integrates "tailpipe-to-road" (i.e., on-road domain) and "road-to-ambient" (i.e., near-road domain) simulations to elucidate the environmental impacts of particulate emissions from traffic sources. The multi-scale structure is implemented in the CTAG model to 1) generate process-based on-road emission rates of ultrafine particles (UFPs) by explicitly simulating the effects of exhaust properties, traffic conditions, and meteorological conditions and 2) to characterize the impacts of traffic-related emissions on micro-environmental air quality near a highway intersection in Rochester, NY. The performance of CTAG, evaluated against with the field measurements, shows adequate agreement in capturing the dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) and the number concentrations of UFPs in the near road micro-environment. As a proof-of-concept case study, we also apply CTAG to separate the relative impacts of the shutdown of a large coal-fired power plant (CFPP) and the adoption of the ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) on UFP concentrations in the intersection micro-environment. Although CTAG is still computationally expensive compared to the widely-used parameterized dispersion models, it has the potential to advance our capability to predict the impacts of UFP emissions and spatial/temporal variations of air pollutants in complex environments. Furthermore, for the on-road simulations, CTAG can serve as a process-based emission model; Combining the on-road and near-road simulations, CTAG becomes a "plume-in-grid" model for mobile emissions. The processed emission profiles can potentially improve regional air quality and climate predictions accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions mediate climate impacts on tropical forest regeneration.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert; Zimmerman, Jess K

2018-02-01

Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors-soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density-modulate these responses. Community-wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community-wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long-term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long-term stand dynamics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Saudreau, Marc; Joas, Jacques; Génard, Michel

2014-01-01

Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

Variability in environmental impacts of Brazilian soybean according to crop production and transport scenarios.

PubMed

da Silva, Vamilson Prudêncio; van der Werf, Hayo M G; Spies, Airton; Soares, Sebastião Roberto

2010-09-01

Soybean production and its supply chain are highly dependent on inputs such as land, fertilizer, fuel, machines, pesticides and electricity. The expansion of this crop in Brazil in recent decades has generated concerns about its environmental impacts. To assess these impacts, two representative chains supplying soybeans to Europe were identified: Center West (CW) and Southern (SO) Brazil. Each supply chain was analyzed using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. We considered different levels of use of chemical and organic fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, different distances for transportation of inputs and different yield levels. Because transportation contributed strongly to environmental impacts, a detailed study was performed to identify the routes used to transport soybeans to seaports. Additionally, we considered different levels of land occupation and land transformation to represent the impact of deforestation in the CW region. Environmental impacts were calculated for 1000 kg of soybean up to and including the delivery to Europe at the seaport in Rotterdam, at 13% humidity. Overall results showed that the impacts are greater for CW than for SO for all impact categories studied, including acidification (7.7 and 5.3 kg SO(2) eq., respectively), climate change (959 and 510 kg CO(2) eq.), cumulative energy demand (12,634 and 6,999 MJ) and terrestrial ecotoxicity (4.9 and 3.1 kg 1,4-DCB eq.), except eutrophication and land occupation. The same trend was observed for the crop-production stage. Efforts to reduce chemical fertilizers and diesel consumption can reduce CO(2) emissions. Although deforestation for crop production has decreased in recent years, the contribution of deforestation to climate change and cumulative energy demand remains significant. In the CW scenario deforestation contributed 29% to climate change and 20% to cumulative energy demand. Results also showed that although there are different transportation options in Brazil, the current predominance of road transport causes severe environmental impacts. In CW, road transport contributed 19% to climate change and 24% to cumulative energy demand, while in SO it contributed 12% and 15% to these impacts, respectively. Improvements in the logistics of transportation, giving priority to rail and river transports over road transport, can contribute significantly to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing energy use. Future studies involving Brazilian soybeans should take into account the region of origin as different levels of environmental impact are predicted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eco-efficience et analyse des couts du cycle de vie: Developpement d'un outil d'aide a la conception dans l'industrie aeronautique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mami, Fares

The aeronautical sector, responsible for about 3 % of the world emissions of greenhouse gases, predict a 70 % growth in 2025 and 300 % to 500 % in 2050 of its emissions compared to the level of 2005. The decision-makers must thus be supported in their choice of conception to integrate the environmental aspect into the decision-making. Our industrial partner in the aeronautical sector developed an expertise in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and seeks to integrate the costs and the environmental impacts in a systematic way into the ecodesign of products. Based on the literature review and the objectives of this research we propose a model of eco-efficiency, which integrates LCA with Life Cycle Costing (LCC). This model is consistent with defined cost cutting and environmental impacts reduction targets and allows a simple interpretation of the results while minimizing the efforts during data collection. The model is applied for 3D printing as an alternative production process in the manufacturing of an aircraft blocker door. 3D printing is a new technology of production working by addition of material and present interesting opportunities of cost cutting and environmental impacts, particularly in the aeronautical domain. The results showed that 3D printing, when associated with improvement in the topology of the part, allows an improvement both on costs and environmental impacts of the part life cycle. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the productivity of the 3D printing machine, in particular with costs when the productivity of the 3D printing is reduced. This eco-efficiency model presents several opportunities of improvement. A more elaborate definition of the objectives in reduction of environmental impacts would allow to direct the choices in design to considerations of eco-efficiency at a macro level. Moreover, the integration of the social dimension in the model constitutes an important stage to operationalize the stakes of environmental and social responsibility of the company.

Aviation Noise Impacts: State of the Science.

PubMed

Basner, Mathias; Clark, Charlotte; Hansell, Anna; Hileman, James I; Janssen, Sabine; Shepherd, Kevin; Sparrow, Victor

2017-01-01

Noise is defined as "unwanted sound." Aircraft noise is one, if not the most detrimental environmental effect of aviation. It can cause community annoyance, disrupt sleep, adversely affect academic performance of children, and could increase the risk for cardiovascular disease of people living in the vicinity of airports. In some airports, noise constrains air traffic growth. This consensus paper was prepared by the Impacts of Science Group of the Committee for Aviation Environmental Protection of the International Civil Aviation Organization and summarizes the state of the science of noise effects research in the areas of noise measurement and prediction, community annoyance, children's learning, sleep disturbance, and health. It also briefly discusses civilian supersonic aircraft as a future source of aviation noise.

Aviation Noise Impacts: State of the Science

PubMed Central

Basner, Mathias; Clark, Charlotte; Hansell, Anna; Hileman, James I.; Janssen, Sabine; Shepherd, Kevin; Sparrow, Victor

2017-01-01

Noise is defined as “unwanted sound.” Aircraft noise is one, if not the most detrimental environmental effect of aviation. It can cause community annoyance, disrupt sleep, adversely affect academic performance of children, and could increase the risk for cardiovascular disease of people living in the vicinity of airports. In some airports, noise constrains air traffic growth. This consensus paper was prepared by the Impacts of Science Group of the Committee for Aviation Environmental Protection of the International Civil Aviation Organization and summarizes the state of the science of noise effects research in the areas of noise measurement and prediction, community annoyance, children’s learning, sleep disturbance, and health. It also briefly discusses civilian supersonic aircraft as a future source of aviation noise. PMID:29192612

Socioeconomic and environmental impacts of landslides in the Western Hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, Robert L.; Highland, Lynn M.

2001-01-01

In spite of improvements in recognition, prediction, mitigative measures, and warning systems, economic losses and casualties due to landslides in the Western Hemisphere appear to be growing as a result of increasing development of landslide-prone areas due to population pressures. This paper notes outstanding examples of socioeconomic losses in the Americas. Landslides impact the following elements of the natural environment: (1) the topography/morphology of both the subaerial and submarine surfaces of the Earth, (2) rivers, streams, forests, and grasslands, and (3) habitats of native fauna, both on the Earth?s surface and in its streams and oceans. Environmental disturbances are results of general tendency toward degradation of the Earth?s surface by gravitational mass wasting and erosion.

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, current practice of drought indicators selection for specific application, and drought risk assessment.

Environmental risk factors and their impact on the age of onset of schizophrenia: Comparing familial to non-familial schizophrenia.

PubMed

Scherr, Martin; Hamann, Melanie; Schwerthöffer, Dirk; Froböse, Teresa; Vukovich, Ruth; Pitschel-Walz, Gabriele; Bäuml, Josef

2012-04-01

Several risk factors for schizophrenia have yet been identified. The aim of our study was to investigate how certain childhood and adolescent risk factors predict the age of onset of psychosis in patients with and without a familial component (i.e. a relative with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder). Aside from the age of onset of psychosis, we examined the risk factors for schizophrenia including obstetric complications, birth during winter or spring, behavioral deviances or delayed motor and speech development, exposure to adverse life events and exposure to substance use within a group of 100 patients (45 female, 55 male) with a mean age (± standard deviation) of 35.15 ± 13.21. Birth complications and cannabis abuse are predictors for an earlier onset of schizophrenia in patients with non-familial schizophrenia. No environmental risk factors for an earlier age of onset in familial schizophrenia have been identified. Certain environmental risk factors for schizophrenia seem to have an impact on the age of onset of psychosis in non-familial schizophrenia, they do not seem to have an impact on familial schizophrenia.

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

PubMed Central

Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E.; Death, Russell G.; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E.; Milner, Alexander M.; Ormerod, Steve J.; Thompson, Ross M.

2016-01-01

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world. PMID:27114576

A functional trait perspective on plant invasion

PubMed Central

Drenovsky, Rebecca E.; Grewell, Brenda J.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Funk, Jennifer L.; James, Jeremy J.; Molinari, Nicole; Parker, Ingrid M.; Richards, Christina L.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Global environmental change will affect non-native plant invasions, with profound potential impacts on native plant populations, communities and ecosystems. In this context, we review plant functional traits, particularly those that drive invader abundance (invasiveness) and impacts, as well as the integration of these traits across multiple ecological scales, and as a basis for restoration and management. Scope We review the concepts and terminology surrounding functional traits and how functional traits influence processes at the individual level. We explore how phenotypic plasticity may lead to rapid evolution of novel traits facilitating invasiveness in changing environments and then ‘scale up’ to evaluate the relative importance of demographic traits and their links to invasion rates. We then suggest a functional trait framework for assessing per capita effects and, ultimately, impacts of invasive plants on plant communities and ecosystems. Lastly, we focus on the role of functional trait-based approaches in invasive species management and restoration in the context of rapid, global environmental change. Conclusions To understand how the abundance and impacts of invasive plants will respond to rapid environmental changes it is essential to link trait-based responses of invaders to changes in community and ecosystem properties. To do so requires a comprehensive effort that considers dynamic environmental controls and a targeted approach to understand key functional traits driving both invader abundance and impacts. If we are to predict future invasions, manage those at hand and use restoration technology to mitigate invasive species impacts, future research must focus on functional traits that promote invasiveness and invader impacts under changing conditions, and integrate major factors driving invasions from individual to ecosystem levels. PMID:22589328

Late Cretaceous restructuring of terrestrial communities facilitated the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in North America.

PubMed

Mitchell, Jonathan S; Roopnarine, Peter D; Angielczyk, Kenneth D

2012-11-13

The sudden environmental catastrophe in the wake of the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact had drastic effects that rippled through animal communities. To explore how these effects may have been exacerbated by prior ecological changes, we used a food-web model to simulate the effects of primary productivity disruptions, such as those predicted to result from an asteroid impact, on ten Campanian and seven Maastrichtian terrestrial localities in North America. Our analysis documents that a shift in trophic structure between Campanian and Maastrichtian communities in North America led Maastrichtian communities to experience more secondary extinction at lower levels of primary production shutdown and possess a lower collapse threshold than Campanian communities. Of particular note is the fact that changes in dinosaur richness had a negative impact on the robustness of Maastrichtian ecosystems against environmental perturbations. Therefore, earlier ecological restructuring may have exacerbated the impact and severity of the end-Cretaceous extinction, at least in North America.

Late Cretaceous restructuring of terrestrial communities facilitated the end-Cretaceous mass extinction in North America

PubMed Central

Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

2012-01-01

The sudden environmental catastrophe in the wake of the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact had drastic effects that rippled through animal communities. To explore how these effects may have been exacerbated by prior ecological changes, we used a food-web model to simulate the effects of primary productivity disruptions, such as those predicted to result from an asteroid impact, on ten Campanian and seven Maastrichtian terrestrial localities in North America. Our analysis documents that a shift in trophic structure between Campanian and Maastrichtian communities in North America led Maastrichtian communities to experience more secondary extinction at lower levels of primary production shutdown and possess a lower collapse threshold than Campanian communities. Of particular note is the fact that changes in dinosaur richness had a negative impact on the robustness of Maastrichtian ecosystems against environmental perturbations. Therefore, earlier ecological restructuring may have exacerbated the impact and severity of the end-Cretaceous extinction, at least in North America. PMID:23112149

Automated quantitative micro-mineralogical characterization for environmental applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Kathleen S.; Hoal, K.O.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Stammer, J.G.; Pietersen, K.

2013-01-01

Characterization of ore and waste-rock material using automated quantitative micro-mineralogical techniques (e.g., QEMSCAN® and MLA) has the potential to complement traditional acid-base accounting and humidity cell techniques when predicting acid generation and metal release. These characterization techniques, which most commonly are used for metallurgical, mineral-processing, and geometallurgical applications, can be broadly applied throughout the mine-life cycle to include numerous environmental applications. Critical insights into mineral liberation, mineral associations, particle size, particle texture, and mineralogical residence phase(s) of environmentally important elements can be used to anticipate potential environmental challenges. Resources spent on initial characterization result in lower uncertainties of potential environmental impacts and possible cost savings associated with remediation and closure. Examples illustrate mineralogical and textural characterization of fluvial tailings material from the upper Arkansas River in Colorado.

[Impact of environmental factors on the incidence of posteropative nausea and vomiting. Influence of the weather and cycle of the moon].

PubMed

Eberhart, L H; Jakobi, G; Winterhalter, M; Georgieff, M

2000-10-01

In a survey concerning postoperative nausea and vomiting an unexpected high number of the participants stressed the impact of environmental factors, like weather and--even more surprising--the phase of the moon, on the occurrence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV). Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the influence of these factors on the incidence of PONV. On 203 days within the 19-month study period, 2488 patients were followed up for at least 24 hours postoperatively to determine the occurrence of PONV. For each day the actual incidence of PONV was compared with the mean predicted risk of PONV calculated with two risk scores for prediction of PONV (Koivuranta, 1997; Apfel, 1998). 32 days with the most significant difference between actual and predicted incidence of PONV were analysed retrospectively by two biometeorological experts, who were blind to the information whether each day was associated with a high or low incidence of PONV, evaluated the possible impact of the weather of these days. To analyse the influence of the cycle of the moon it was prospectively classified into four different phases. The two biometeorologists rated 22 out of the presented 32 days correctly. The likelihood p that this rating happened by chance is 0.0251, assuming that the likelihood for predicting each day correctly is 0.5 (independent Bernoulli-experiments, e.g. throwing a coin). However, days with a high or low incidence of PONV were equally distributed within the four phases of the moon (p = 0.97; chi 2-test with Yates' correction). Results from this analysis suggest that the weather may have some impact on the occurrence of PONV. However, our data do not support the hypothesis that the phases of the moon have any influence on this symptom.

Meteorological assessment of SRM exhaust products' environmental impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dingle, A. N.

1982-01-01

The environmental impact of solid rocket motor (SRM) exhaust products discharged into the free air stream upon the launching of space vehicles that depend upon SRM boosters to obtain large thrust was assessed. The emission of Al2O3 to the troposphere from the SRMs in each Shuttle launch is considered. The Al2O3 appears as particles suitable for heterogeneous nucleation of hydrochloric acid which under frequently occurring atmospheric conditions may form a highly acidic rain capable of damaging property and crops and of impacting upon the health of human and animal populations. The cloud processes leading to the formation of acid rain and the concentration of the acid that then reaches the ground, and the atmospheric situations that lead to the production of cloud and rain at and near a launch site, and the prediction of weather conditions that may permit or prohibit a launch operation are studied.

Prediction of blast-induced air overpressure: a hybrid AI-based predictive model.

PubMed

Jahed Armaghani, Danial; Hajihassani, Mohsen; Marto, Aminaton; Shirani Faradonbeh, Roohollah; Mohamad, Edy Tonnizam

2015-11-01

Blast operations in the vicinity of residential areas usually produce significant environmental problems which may cause severe damage to the nearby areas. Blast-induced air overpressure (AOp) is one of the most important environmental impacts of blast operations which needs to be predicted to minimize the potential risk of damage. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) for the prediction of AOp induced by quarry blasting. For this purpose, 95 blasting operations were precisely monitored in a granite quarry site in Malaysia and AOp values were recorded in each operation. Furthermore, the most influential parameters on AOp, including the maximum charge per delay and the distance between the blast-face and monitoring point, were measured and used to train the ICA-ANN model. Based on the generalized predictor equation and considering the measured data from the granite quarry site, a new empirical equation was developed to predict AOp. For comparison purposes, conventional ANN models were developed and compared with the ICA-ANN results. The results demonstrated that the proposed ICA-ANN model is able to predict blast-induced AOp more accurately than other presented techniques.

Numerical tools to predict the environmental loads for offshore structures under extreme weather conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yanling

2018-05-01

In this paper, the extreme waves were generated using the open source computational fluid dynamic (CFD) tools — OpenFOAM and Waves2FOAM — using linear and nonlinear NewWave input. They were used to conduct the numerical simulation of the wave impact process. Numerical tools based on first-order (with and without stretching) and second-order NewWave are investigated. The simulation to predict force loading for the offshore platform under the extreme weather condition is implemented and compared.

Predicting pre-Columbian anthropogenic soils in Amazonia

PubMed Central

McMichael, C. H.; Palace, M. W.; Bush, M. B.; Braswell, B.; Hagen, S.; Neves, E. G.; Silman, M. R.; Tamanaha, E. K.; Czarnecki, C.

2014-01-01

The extent and intensity of pre-Columbian impacts on lowland Amazonia have remained uncertain and controversial. Various indicators can be used to gauge the impact of pre-Columbian societies, but the formation of nutrient-enriched terra preta soils has been widely accepted as an indication of long-term settlement and site fidelity. Using known and newly discovered terra preta sites and maximum entropy algorithms (Maxent), we determined the influence of regional environmental conditions on the likelihood that terra pretas would have been formed at any given location in lowland Amazonia. Terra pretas were most frequently found in central and eastern Amazonia along the lower courses of the major Amazonian rivers. Terrain, hydrologic and soil characteristics were more important predictors of terra preta distributions than climatic conditions. Our modelling efforts indicated that terra pretas are likely to be found throughout ca 154 063 km2 or 3.2% of the forest. We also predict that terra preta formation was limited in most of western Amazonia. Model results suggested that the distribution of terra preta was highly predictable based on environmental parameters. We provided targets for future archaeological surveys under the vast forest canopy and also highlighted how few of the long-term forest inventory sites in Amazonia are able to capture the effects of historical disturbance. PMID:24403329

Predicting pre-Columbian anthropogenic soils in Amazonia.

PubMed

McMichael, C H; Palace, M W; Bush, M B; Braswell, B; Hagen, S; Neves, E G; Silman, M R; Tamanaha, E K; Czarnecki, C

2014-02-22

The extent and intensity of pre-Columbian impacts on lowland Amazonia have remained uncertain and controversial. Various indicators can be used to gauge the impact of pre-Columbian societies, but the formation of nutrient-enriched terra preta soils has been widely accepted as an indication of long-term settlement and site fidelity. Using known and newly discovered terra preta sites and maximum entropy algorithms (Maxent), we determined the influence of regional environmental conditions on the likelihood that terra pretas would have been formed at any given location in lowland Amazonia. Terra pretas were most frequently found in central and eastern Amazonia along the lower courses of the major Amazonian rivers. Terrain, hydrologic and soil characteristics were more important predictors of terra preta distributions than climatic conditions. Our modelling efforts indicated that terra pretas are likely to be found throughout ca 154 063 km(2) or 3.2% of the forest. We also predict that terra preta formation was limited in most of western Amazonia. Model results suggested that the distribution of terra preta was highly predictable based on environmental parameters. We provided targets for future archaeological surveys under the vast forest canopy and also highlighted how few of the long-term forest inventory sites in Amazonia are able to capture the effects of historical disturbance.

Estimating the footprint of pollution on coral reefs with models of species turnover.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Hamilton, Richard J

2018-01-15

Ecological communities typically change along gradients of human impact, although it is difficult to estimate the footprint of impacts for diffuse threats such as pollution. We developed a joint model (i.e., one that includes multiple species and their interactions with each other and environmental covariates) of benthic habitats on lagoonal coral reefs and used it to infer change in benthic composition along a gradient of distance from logging operations. The model estimated both changes in abundances of benthic groups and their compositional turnover, a type of beta diversity. We used the model to predict the footprint of turbidity impacts from past and recent logging. Benthic communities far from logging were dominated by branching corals, whereas communities close to logging had higher cover of dead coral, massive corals, and soft sediment. Recent impacts were predicted to be small relative to the extensive impacts of past logging because recent logging has occurred far from lagoonal reefs. Our model can be used more generally to estimate the footprint of human impacts on ecosystems and evaluate the benefits of conservation actions for ecosystems. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

Microbial Functional Gene Diversity Predicts Groundwater Contamination and Ecosystem Functioning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Zhili; Zhang, Ping; Wu, Linwei

Contamination from anthropogenic activities has significantly impacted Earth’s biosphere. However, knowledge about how environmental contamination affects the biodiversity of groundwater microbiomes and ecosystem functioning remains very limited. Here, we used a comprehensive functional gene array to analyze groundwater microbiomes from 69 wells at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center (Oak Ridge, TN), representing a wide pH range and uranium, nitrate, and other contaminants. We hypothesized that the functional diversity of groundwater microbiomes would decrease as environmental contamination (e.g., uranium or nitrate) increased or at low or high pH, while some specific populations capable of utilizing or resistant to those contaminantsmore » would increase, and thus, such key microbial functional genes and/or populations could be used to predict groundwater contamination and ecosystem functioning. Our results indicated that functional richness/diversity decreased as uranium (but not nitrate) increased in groundwater. In addition, about 5.9% of specific key functional populations targeted by a comprehensive functional gene array (GeoChip 5) increased significantly (P < 0.05) as uranium or nitrate increased, and their changes could be used to successfully predict uranium and nitrate contamination and ecosystem functioning. Here, this study indicates great potential for using microbial functional genes to predict environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning.« less

Microbial Functional Gene Diversity Predicts Groundwater Contamination and Ecosystem Functioning

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ping; Wu, Linwei; Rocha, Andrea M.; Shi, Zhou; Wu, Bo; Qin, Yujia; Wang, Jianjun; Yan, Qingyun; Curtis, Daniel; Ning, Daliang; Van Nostrand, Joy D.; Wu, Liyou; Watson, David B.; Adams, Michael W. W.; Alm, Eric J.; Adams, Paul D.; Arkin, Adam P.

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Contamination from anthropogenic activities has significantly impacted Earth’s biosphere. However, knowledge about how environmental contamination affects the biodiversity of groundwater microbiomes and ecosystem functioning remains very limited. Here, we used a comprehensive functional gene array to analyze groundwater microbiomes from 69 wells at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center (Oak Ridge, TN), representing a wide pH range and uranium, nitrate, and other contaminants. We hypothesized that the functional diversity of groundwater microbiomes would decrease as environmental contamination (e.g., uranium or nitrate) increased or at low or high pH, while some specific populations capable of utilizing or resistant to those contaminants would increase, and thus, such key microbial functional genes and/or populations could be used to predict groundwater contamination and ecosystem functioning. Our results indicated that functional richness/diversity decreased as uranium (but not nitrate) increased in groundwater. In addition, about 5.9% of specific key functional populations targeted by a comprehensive functional gene array (GeoChip 5) increased significantly (P < 0.05) as uranium or nitrate increased, and their changes could be used to successfully predict uranium and nitrate contamination and ecosystem functioning. This study indicates great potential for using microbial functional genes to predict environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning. PMID:29463661

Microbial Functional Gene Diversity Predicts Groundwater Contamination and Ecosystem Functioning

DOE PAGES

He, Zhili; Zhang, Ping; Wu, Linwei; ...

2018-02-20

Contamination from anthropogenic activities has significantly impacted Earth’s biosphere. However, knowledge about how environmental contamination affects the biodiversity of groundwater microbiomes and ecosystem functioning remains very limited. Here, we used a comprehensive functional gene array to analyze groundwater microbiomes from 69 wells at the Oak Ridge Field Research Center (Oak Ridge, TN), representing a wide pH range and uranium, nitrate, and other contaminants. We hypothesized that the functional diversity of groundwater microbiomes would decrease as environmental contamination (e.g., uranium or nitrate) increased or at low or high pH, while some specific populations capable of utilizing or resistant to those contaminantsmore » would increase, and thus, such key microbial functional genes and/or populations could be used to predict groundwater contamination and ecosystem functioning. Our results indicated that functional richness/diversity decreased as uranium (but not nitrate) increased in groundwater. In addition, about 5.9% of specific key functional populations targeted by a comprehensive functional gene array (GeoChip 5) increased significantly (P < 0.05) as uranium or nitrate increased, and their changes could be used to successfully predict uranium and nitrate contamination and ecosystem functioning. Here, this study indicates great potential for using microbial functional genes to predict environmental contamination and ecosystem functioning.« less

Modeling fate and transport of "Contaminants of Emerging Concern" (CECs): is the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) the appropriate model?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods As the scientific and regulatory communities realize the significant environmental impacts and ubiquity of “contaminants of emerging concern” (CECs), it is increasingly imperative to develop quantitative assessment tools to evaluate and predict the fate and transport of...

Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools

Treesearch

Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Andrew M. Liebhold; Robert A. Haack; Joseph F. Cavey

2014-01-01

Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment...

Modeling impacts of CO2, ozone, and climate change on tree growth

Treesearch

George E. Host; Gary W. Theseira; J. G. Isebrands

1996-01-01

Understanding the influence of ozone, CO2, and changing climatic regimes on basic plant physiological processes is essential for predicting the response of forest ecosystems. To understand the relationships among these interacting factors, in the face of genetic and other environmental variability, requires a means of synthesis. Physiological...

Predicting Plausible Impacts of Sets of Climate and Land Use Change Scenario on Water Resources

EPA Science Inventory

As the new decade ushers in, there will be new challenges. The world’s population is increasing and the land use patterns are changing. Inevitably with these global changes, there will be various environmental consequences. For example, our water resources, both in terms of qu...

Differing Levels of Gender Salience in Preschool Classrooms: Effects on Children's Gender Attitudes and Intergroup Bias

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilliard, Lacey J.; Liben, Lynn S.

2010-01-01

Developmental intergroup theory posits that when environments make social-group membership salient, children will be particularly likely to apply categorization processes to social groups, thereby increasing stereotypes and prejudices. To test the predicted impact of environmental gender salience, 3- to 5-year-old children (N = 57) completed…

77 FR 73045 - Draft Environmental Impact Statement and Draft Pima County Multi-Species Habitat Conservation...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-07

... County, Arizona, has had one of the fastest growing human populations of any county in the United States... opportunities. Urban growth has resulted in significant development, which is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. A significant proportion of the predicted future development is anticipated to occur in...

Estimating the impact of grouping misclassification on risk prediction when using the relative potency factors method to assess mixtures risk -Presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental health risk assessments of chemical mixtures that rely on component approaches often begin by grouping the chemicals of concern according to toxicological similarity. Approaches that assume dose addition typically are used for groups of similarly-acting chemicals an...

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

EPA Science Inventory

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deploy...

Maximizing the Aviation Combat Element of the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

35 Table 3. Logistics Footprint Assesment : Courses of Action ................................................. 36...ships operating in a reduced stability status for the full range of environmental conditions in which they were tested.20 These findings predicted that...detachment of aircraft to the LPD in COA 4. Emphasis was placed on increasing operational footprint while minimizing operational impact of

Looking Back to Move Ahead: How Students Learn Geologic Time by Predicting Future Environmental Impacts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Chen; Rehrey, George; Treadwell, Brooke; Johnson, Claudia C.

2012-01-01

This Scholarship of Teaching and Learning project discusses the effectiveness of using distance metaphor-building activities along with a case study exam to help undergraduate nonscience majors understand and apply geologic time. Using action research, we describe how a scholarly teacher integrated previously published and often-used teaching…

Impact of Relapse Predictors on Psychosocial Functioning of SUD Youth One Year after Treatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Kristen G.; Ramo, Danielle E.; Schulte, Marya T.; Cummins, Kevin; Brown, Sandra A.

2008-01-01

This investigation examined how personal, environmental and substance use factors predicted psychosocial functioning for youth with alcohol and drug problems. Four hundred twenty-four adolescents (M = 15.9, SD = 1.3) completed comprehensive assessments, including personal characteristics (e.g., Axis I diagnosis, motivation, self-esteem),…

An Evaluation of carbon monoxide emissions models and mobile source dispersion models applicable to Alaskan cities : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

This report describes an investigation of state-of-the-art models for predicting the impact on air quality of additions or changes to a highway system identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as a "non-attainment area" for air quality s...

Sequence alignment to predict across species susceptibility (SeqAPASS): Cross species extrapolation in the 21st century

EPA Science Inventory

An objective of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is to develop innovative approaches and decision support tools for the safety assessment of current and emerging chemicals in relation to their impact on the environment. To support this goal, there is a compelling need for...

76 FR 34799 - Permanent Dam Safety Modification at Cherokee, Fort Loudoun, Tellico, and Watts Bar Dams, TN

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-14

... notice is provided in accordance with the Council on Environmental Quality's regulations (40 CFR parts... interconnected, fabric-lined, sand-filled HESCO containers in order to safely pass predicted worst-case..., but will not necessarily be limited to, the potential impacts on water quality, aquatic and...

Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

PubMed Central

Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

2016-01-01

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

High-order computational fluid dynamics tools for aircraft design

PubMed Central

Wang, Z. J.

2014-01-01

Most forecasts predict an annual airline traffic growth rate between 4.5 and 5% in the foreseeable future. To sustain that growth, the environmental impact of aircraft cannot be ignored. Future aircraft must have much better fuel economy, dramatically less greenhouse gas emissions and noise, in addition to better performance. Many technical breakthroughs must take place to achieve the aggressive environmental goals set up by governments in North America and Europe. One of these breakthroughs will be physics-based, highly accurate and efficient computational fluid dynamics and aeroacoustics tools capable of predicting complex flows over the entire flight envelope and through an aircraft engine, and computing aircraft noise. Some of these flows are dominated by unsteady vortices of disparate scales, often highly turbulent, and they call for higher-order methods. As these tools will be integral components of a multi-disciplinary optimization environment, they must be efficient to impact design. Ultimately, the accuracy, efficiency, robustness, scalability and geometric flexibility will determine which methods will be adopted in the design process. This article explores these aspects and identifies pacing items. PMID:25024419

Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harder, B.J.

1995-03-01

Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be mademore » to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.« less

Marine phytoplankton stoichiometry mediates nonlinear interactions between nutrient supply, temperature, and atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, Allison R.; Hagstrom, George I.; Primeau, Francois W.; Levin, Simon A.; Martiny, Adam C.

2018-05-01

Marine phytoplankton stoichiometry links nutrient supply to marine carbon export. Deviations of phytoplankton stoichiometry from Redfield proportions (106C : 1P) could therefore have a significant impact on carbon cycling, and understanding which environmental factors drive these deviations may reveal new mechanisms regulating the carbon cycle. To explore the links between environmental conditions, stoichiometry, and carbon cycling, we compared four different models of phytoplankton C : P: a fixed Redfield model, a model with C : P given as a function of surface phosphorus concentration (P), a model with C P given as a function of temperature, and a new multi-environmental model that predicts C : P as a function of light, temperature, and P. These stoichiometric models were embedded into a five-box ocean circulation model, which resolves the three major ocean biomes (high-latitude, subtropical gyres, and tropical upwelling regions). Contrary to the expectation of a monotonic relationship between surface nutrient drawdown and carbon export, we found that lateral nutrient transport from lower C : P tropical waters to high C : P subtropical waters could cause carbon export to decrease with increased tropical nutrient utilization. It has been hypothesized that a positive feedback between temperature and pCO2, atm will play an important role in anthropogenic climate change, with changes in the biological pump playing at most a secondary role. Here we show that environmentally driven shifts in stoichiometry make the biological pump more influential, and may reverse the expected positive relationship between temperature and pCO2, atm. In the temperature-only model, changes in tropical temperature have more impact on the Δ pCO2, atm (˜ 41 ppm) compared to subtropical temperature changes (˜ 4.5 ppm). Our multi-environmental model predicted a decline in pCO2, atm of ˜ 46 ppm when temperature spanned a change of 10 °C. Thus, we find that variation in marine phytoplankton stoichiometry and its environmental controlling factors can lead to nonlinear controls on pCO2, atm, suggesting the need for further studies of ocean C : P and the impact on ocean carbon cycling.

High-fidelity modeling and impact footprint prediction for vehicle breakup analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Lisa

For decades, vehicle breakup analysis had been performed for space missions that used nuclear heater or power units in order to assess aerospace nuclear safety for potential launch failures leading to inadvertent atmospheric reentry. Such pre-launch risk analysis is imperative to assess possible environmental impacts, obtain launch approval, and for launch contingency planning. In order to accurately perform a vehicle breakup analysis, the analysis tool should include a trajectory propagation algorithm coupled with thermal and structural analyses and influences. Since such a software tool was not available commercially or in the public domain, a basic analysis tool was developed by Dr. Angus McRonald prior to this study. This legacy software consisted of low-fidelity modeling and had the capability to predict vehicle breakup, but did not predict the surface impact point of the nuclear component. Thus the main thrust of this study was to develop and verify the additional dynamics modeling and capabilities for the analysis tool with the objectives to (1) have the capability to predict impact point and footprint, (2) increase the fidelity in the prediction of vehicle breakup, and (3) reduce the effort and time required to complete an analysis. The new functions developed for predicting the impact point and footprint included 3-degrees-of-freedom trajectory propagation, the generation of non-arbitrary entry conditions, sensitivity analysis, and the calculation of impact footprint. The functions to increase the fidelity in the prediction of vehicle breakup included a panel code to calculate the hypersonic aerodynamic coefficients for an arbitrary-shaped body and the modeling of local winds. The function to reduce the effort and time required to complete an analysis included the calculation of node failure criteria. The derivation and development of these new functions are presented in this dissertation, and examples are given to demonstrate the new capabilities and the improvements made, with comparisons between the results obtained from the upgraded analysis tool and the legacy software wherever applicable.

A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Prediction of Strategic Noise Mapping and Occupational Noise Exposure Using the Random Walk Approach

PubMed Central

Haron, Zaiton; Bakar, Suhaimi Abu; Dimon, Mohamad Ngasri

2015-01-01

Strategic noise mapping provides important information for noise impact assessment and noise abatement. However, producing reliable strategic noise mapping in a dynamic, complex working environment is difficult. This study proposes the implementation of the random walk approach as a new stochastic technique to simulate noise mapping and to predict the noise exposure level in a workplace. A stochastic simulation framework and software, namely RW-eNMS, were developed to facilitate the random walk approach in noise mapping prediction. This framework considers the randomness and complexity of machinery operation and noise emission levels. Also, it assesses the impact of noise on the workers and the surrounding environment. For data validation, three case studies were conducted to check the accuracy of the prediction data and to determine the efficiency and effectiveness of this approach. The results showed high accuracy of prediction results together with a majority of absolute differences of less than 2 dBA; also, the predicted noise doses were mostly in the range of measurement. Therefore, the random walk approach was effective in dealing with environmental noises. It could predict strategic noise mapping to facilitate noise monitoring and noise control in the workplaces. PMID:25875019

A Sense of Place: Integrating Environmental Psychology into Marine Socio-Ecological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Putten, I. E.; Fleming, A.; Fulton, E.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.

2016-02-01

Sense of place is a concept that is increasingly applied in different social research contexts where it can act as a bridge between disciplines that might otherwise work in parallel. A sense of place is a well established and flexible concept that has been empirically measured using different survey methods. The psychological principals and theories that underpin sense of place have been inextricably linked to the quality of ecological systems and the impact on development of the system, and vice versa. Ecological models and scenario analyses play an important role in characterising, assessing and predicting the potential impacts of alternative developments and other changes affecting ecological systems. To improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models, human drivers, interactions, and uses have been dynamically incorporated, for instance, through management strategy evaluation applied to marine ecosystem models. However, to date no socio-ecological models (whether terrestrial or marine) have been developed that incorporate a dynamic feedback between ecosystem characteristics and peoples' sense of place. These models thus essentially ignore the influence of environmental psychology on the way people use and interact with ecosystems. We develop a proof of concept and provide a mathematical basis for a Sense of Place Index (SoPI) that allows the quantitative integration of environmental psychology into socio-ecological models. Incorporating dynamic feedback between the SoPI for different resource user groups and the ecological system improves the accuracy and precision of predictions regarding future resource use as well as, ultimately, the potential state of the resource to be developed.

Recent Geoeffective Space Weather Events and Technological System Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmon, R. J.; Denig, W. F.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Singer, H. J.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Knipp, D. J.; Kilcommons, L. M.

2015-12-01

We review the state of the space environment for three recent intense geoeffective storms using NOAA observations and model predictions. On February 27, 2014, the US Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) navigation service over eastern Alaska and northeastern continental US was degraded due to a strong ionospheric storm. Similarly, on March 17, the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm commenced, resulting in the most intense storm of the solar cycle to date with mid-latitude auroral sightings, intense ionospheric irregularities and WAAS degradation. On June 22, a strong (G4) geomagnetic storm commenced following the impact of 3 coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Late on June 22, solar protons entered the polar regions along open magnetic field lines producing intense radio absorption. We summarize, compare and contrast the space environmental state for each of these events from the perspective of NOAA observations and model predictions. We do so by leveraging GOES and POES/MetOp observations of the space radiation environment, DMSP observations of precipitating particles and bulk plasma parameters, OVATION Prime predictions of the auroral energy input and the US Total Electron Content (USTEC) and D-Region Absorption Prediction (DRAP) modeled response of the ionosphere. We discuss impacts to technological systems as available.

Modeling and Validation of the Ecological Behavior of Wild-Type Listeria monocytogenes and Stress-Resistant Variants.

PubMed

Metselaar, Karin I; Abee, Tjakko; Zwietering, Marcel H; den Besten, Heidy M W

2016-09-01

Listeria monocytogenes exhibits a heterogeneous response upon stress exposure which can be partially attributed to the presence of stable stress-resistant variants. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the presence of stress-resistant variants of Listeria monocytogenes and their corresponding trade-offs on population composition under different environmental conditions. A set of stress robustness and growth parameters of the wild type (WT) and an rpsU deletion variant was obtained and used to model their growth behavior under combined mild stress conditions and to model their kinetics under single- and mixed-strain conditions in a simulated food chain. Growth predictions for the WT and the rpsU deletion variant matched the experimental data generally well, although some deviations from the predictions were observed. The data highlighted the influence of the environmental conditions on the ratio between the WT and variant. Prediction of performance in the simulated food chain proved to be challenging. The trend of faster growth and lower stress robustness for the WT than for the rpsU variant in the different steps of the chain was confirmed, but especially for the inactivation steps and the time needed to resume growth after an inactivation step, the experimental data deviated from the model predictions. This report provides insights into the conditions which can select for stress-resistant variants in industrial settings and discusses their potential persistence in food processing environments. Listeria monocytogenes exhibits a heterogeneous stress response which can partially be attributed to the presence of genetic variants. These stress-resistant variants survive better under severe conditions but have, on the other hand, a reduced growth rate. To date, the ecological behavior and potential impact of the presence of stress-resistant variants is not fully understood. In this study, we quantitatively assessed growth and inactivation behavior of wild-type L. monocytogenes and its stress-resistant variants. Predictions were validated under different conditions, as well as along a model food chain. This work illustrates the effects of environmental factors on population dynamics of L. monocytogenes and is a first step in evaluating the impact of population diversity on food safety. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed Central

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-01-01

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change. PMID:14561301

Individual Characteristics, Family Factors, and Classroom Experiences as Predictors of Low-Income Kindergarteners' Social Skills.

PubMed

Griffith, Shayl; Arnold, David; Voegler-Lee, Mary-Ellen; Kupersmidt, Janis

2016-01-01

There has been increasing awareness of the need for research and theory to take into account the intersection of individual characteristics and environmental contexts when examining predictors of child outcomes. The present longitudinal, multi-informant study examined the cumulative and interacting contributions of child characteristics (language skills, inattention/hyperactivity, and aggression) and preschool and family contextual factors in predicting kindergarten social skills in 389 low-income preschool children. Child characteristics and classroom factors, but not family factors, predicted teacher-rated kindergarten social skills, while child characteristics alone predicted change in teacher-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Child characteristics and family factors, but not classroom factors, predicted parent-rated kindergarten social skills. Family factors alone predicted change in parent-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Individual child characteristics did not interact with family or classroom factors in predicting parent- or teacher-rated social skills, and support was therefore found for an incremental, rather than an interactive, predictive model of social skills. The findings underscore the importance of assessing outcomes in more than one context, and of considering the impact of both individual and environmental contextual factors on children's developing social skills when designing targeted intervention programs to prepare children for kindergarten.

Individual Characteristics, Family Factors, and Classroom Experiences as Predictors of Low-Income Kindergarteners’ Social Skills

PubMed Central

Griffith, Shayl; Arnold, David; Voegler-Lee, Mary-Ellen; Kupersmidt, Janis

2017-01-01

There has been increasing awareness of the need for research and theory to take into account the intersection of individual characteristics and environmental contexts when examining predictors of child outcomes. The present longitudinal, multi-informant study examined the cumulative and interacting contributions of child characteristics (language skills, inattention/hyperactivity, and aggression) and preschool and family contextual factors in predicting kindergarten social skills in 389 low-income preschool children. Child characteristics and classroom factors, but not family factors, predicted teacher-rated kindergarten social skills, while child characteristics alone predicted change in teacher-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Child characteristics and family factors, but not classroom factors, predicted parent-rated kindergarten social skills. Family factors alone predicted change in parent-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Individual child characteristics did not interact with family or classroom factors in predicting parent- or teacher-rated social skills, and support was therefore found for an incremental, rather than an interactive, predictive model of social skills. The findings underscore the importance of assessing outcomes in more than one context, and of considering the impact of both individual and environmental contextual factors on children’s developing social skills when designing targeted intervention programs to prepare children for kindergarten. PMID:28804528

A unified theory of impact crises and mass extinctions: quantitative tests.

PubMed

Rampino, M R; Haggerty, B M; Pagano, T C

1997-05-30

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing, large-scale environmental disasters, predict the impacts of objects > or = 5 km in diameter (> or = 10(7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of > or = 10 km in diameter (> or = 10(8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10(6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities, and several well-dated large impact craters, also suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of approximately 100 km diameter, smaller impacts being capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters less than approximately 60 km in diameter should not be associated with detectable global extinction pulses (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses seem to be associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high iridium, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less well-studied crisis intervals show elevated iridium, but well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of approximately 30 Myr in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the pulselike modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement between paleontologic and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

Evaluation of the EIA system on the Island of Mauritius and development of an environmental monitoring plan framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramjeawon, T.; Beedassy, R

The Environment Protection Act (EPA) in Mauritius provides for the application of an EIA license in respect of undertakings listed in its first schedule. Following the promulgation of the Act in June 1993, the Department of Environment (DOE) is issuing an average of 125 EIA licenses yearly. In general, the review exercise of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) is terminated once the license has been granted. The aim of this project was to evaluate the EIA system in Mauritius and to identify its weaknesses and strengths. One of the main weaknesses, besides the lack of EIA audits, is the absencemore » of EIA follow-up monitoring. It is necessary to distinguish between monitoring done for regulatory purposes (compliance monitoring) and environmental monitoring related to the EIA. With the growth of the tourism industry on the island, coastal development projects have the potential to cause significant environmental impacts . A sample of EIA reports pertaining to this sector was assessed for its quality and follow-up mechanisms. Proposals for the contents of EIA Prediction Audits, Environmental Monitoring Plans (EMP) and the format for an EMP report are made.« less

Evaluation of new farming technologies in Ethiopia using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS).

PubMed

Clarke, Neville; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Dile, Yihun; Worqlul, Abeyou; Osorio, Javier; Herbst, Brian; Richardson, James W; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Gerik, Thomas J; Williams, Jimmy; Jones, Charles A; Jeong, Jaehak

2017-01-31

This study investigates multi-dimensional impacts of adopting new technology in agriculture at the farm/village and watershed scale in sub-Saharan Africa using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS). Application of IDSS as an integrated modeling tool helps solve complex issues in agricultural systems by simultaneously assessing production, environmental, economic, and nutritional consequences of adopting agricultural technologies for sustainable increases in food production and use of scarce natural resources. The IDSS approach was applied to the Amhara region of Ethiopia, where the scarcity of resources and agro-environmental consequences are critical to agricultural productivity of small farm, to analyze the impacts of alternative agricultural technology interventions. Results show significant improvements in family income and nutrition, achieved through the adoption of irrigation technologies, proper use of fertilizer, and improved seed varieties while preserving environmental indicators in terms of soil erosion and sediment loadings. These pilot studies demonstrate the usefulness of the IDSS approach as a tool that can be used to predict and evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of adopting new agricultural technologies that aim to improve the livelihoods of subsistence farmers.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Environmental impact assessment system in Thailand and its comparison with those in China and Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suwanteep, Kultip, E-mail: suwanteep.k.aa@m.titech.ac.jp; Murayama, Takehiko; Nishikizawa, Shigeo

This paper aims to find ways to streamline the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) system in Thailand to increase its effectiveness by comparative analysis with China and Japan. This study is mainly focused on review, update and comparison of EIA systems between these three countries. It is intended to clarify fundamental information of the EIA systems and characteristics of the key elements of EIA processes (screening, consideration of alternatives, prediction or evaluation of impact, and public participation). Moreover, the number of the EIA projects that have been implemented in all the provinces in Thailand are presented. The results identified the similaritiesmore » and differences of the EIA processes among the three aforementioned countries. The type of EIA report used in Thailand, unlike those in China and Japan, is an Environmental and Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), which is concerned with the health and environmental impacts that could occur from the project. In addition, EIA reports in Thailand are made available to the public online and the shortcomings of the process have details of barriers resulting from the projects to help future projects with reconsideration and improvements. In this study, it is pointed out that Thai's EIA system still lacks local EIA authority which needs to be empowered by implementing a set of laws or ordinance. - Highlights: • Reviewed current EIA procedures in Thailand, Japan and China • The EIA database is getting improved so as to generate profile of EIAs in the past. • Thailand needs to empower the local EIA authority within the EIA system. • The potential impacts should be more concerned than their scale in Japanese EIA. • Time limits and transparency should be reconsidered in China's EIA system.« less

A systematic quality assessment of Environmental Impact Statements in the oil and gas industry.

PubMed

Anifowose, B; Lawler, D M; van der Horst, D; Chapman, L

2016-12-01

The global economy relies heavily on oil and gas resources. However, hydrocarbon exploitation projects can cause significant impacts on the environment. But despite the production of numerous Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) to identify/mitigate such impacts, no study has specifically assessed the quality of EISs for both onshore and offshore oil and gas projects, with tested hypotheses. To address this research gap, our paper, for the first time, develops a modified Lee and Colley evaluation model to assess the quality of 19 sampled oil and gas project EISs produced from 1998 to 2008 in Nigeria. Our findings show that Project Description and Communication of Results are the main areas of strength. However, Environmental Impact Prediction, and Project Decommissioning, were among the key areas requiring attention. A key finding, though, is that Mann-Whitney tests suggest that there is no evidence that the quality of EISs for the latter period (2004-2008) is higher than that of the earlier period (1998-2004). We suggest that periodic systematic review of the quality of submitted/approved EISs (c. every 3-5years) should be established to monitor trends in EIS quality and identify strong and weak areas. This would help to drive continual improvement in both the EIA processes and the resultant EISs of technical engineering projects. Such reviews have the potential to illuminate some of the underlying problems of, and solutions to, oil and gas exploration, production and transportation, and their related environmental impacts. This suggested change would also be useful internationally, including for the burgeoning exploration and production of unconventional hydrocarbon resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Opportunities for Environmental Noise Mapping in Saudi Arabia: A Case of Traffic Noise Annoyance in an Urban Area in Jeddah City.

PubMed

Zytoon, Mohamed A

2016-05-13

As the traffic and other environmental noise generating activities are growing in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), adverse health and other impacts are expected to develop. The management of such problem involves many actions, of which noise mapping has been proven to be a helpful approach. The objective of the current study was to test the adequacy of the available data in KSA municipalities for generating urban noise maps and to verify the applicability of available environmental noise mapping and noise annoyance models for KSA. Therefore, noise maps were produced for Al-Fayha District in Jeddah City, KSA using commercially available noise mapping software and applying the French national computation method "NMPB" for traffic noise. Most of the data required for traffic noise prediction and annoyance analysis were available, either in the Municipality GIS department or in other governmental authorities. The predicted noise levels during the three time periods, i.e., daytime, evening, and nighttime, were found higher than the maximum recommended levels established in KSA environmental noise standards. Annoyance analysis revealed that high percentages of the District inhabitants were highly annoyed, depending on the type of planning zone and period of interest. These results reflect the urgent need to consider environmental noise reduction in KSA national plans. The accuracy of the predicted noise levels and the availability of most of the necessary data should encourage further studies on the use of noise mapping as part of noise reduction plans.

An experimental test of the role of environmental temperature variability on ectotherm molecular, physiological and life-history traits: implications for global warming.

PubMed

Folguera, Guillermo; Bastías, Daniel A; Caers, Jelle; Rojas, José M; Piulachs, Maria-Dolors; Bellés, Xavier; Bozinovic, Francisco

2011-07-01

Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is the increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However, another but poorly studied main characteristic of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values, paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We experimentally tested the effects of environmental temperature variability on characteristics associated to the fitness (body mass balance, growth rate, and survival), metabolic rate (VCO(2)) and molecular traits (heat shock protein expression, Hsp70), in an ectotherm, the terrestrial woodlouse Porcellio laevis. Our general hypotheses are that higher values of thermal amplitude may directly affect life-history traits, increasing metabolic cost and stress responses. At first, results supported our hypotheses showing a diversity of responses among characters to the experimental thermal treatments. We emphasize that knowledge about the cellular and physiological mechanisms by which animals cope with environmental changes is essential to understand the impact of mean climatic change and variability. Also, we consider that the studies that only incorporate only mean temperatures to predict the life-history, ecological and evolutionary impact of global temperature changes present important problems to predict the diversity of responses of the organism. This is because the analysis ignores the complexity and details of the molecular and physiological processes by which animals cope with environmental variability, as well as the life-history and demographic consequences of such variability. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Response of Environmental Capacity for Malaria Transmission in West Africa to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2011-12-01

The climate of West Africa is characterized by north-south gradients in temperature and rainfall. Environmental capacity for malaria transmission (e.g. as measured by vectorial capacity) is strongly tied to these two variables; temperature affects the development rate of the malaria parasite, as well as the lifespan of the mosquitoes that transmit the disease, and rainfall is tied to mosquito abundance, as the vector lays its eggs in rain-fed water pools. A change in climate is therefore expected to lead to changes in the distribution of malaria transmission. Current general circulation models agree that the temperature in West Africa is expected to increase by several degrees in the next century. However they predict a wide range of possible rainfall scenarios in the future, from intense drying to significant increases in rainfall (Christensen et al., 2007). The effects these changes will have on environmental capacity for malaria transmission depend on the magnitude and direction of the changes, and on current conditions. For example, malaria transmission will be more sensitive to positive changes in rainfall in dry areas where mosquito populations are currently limited by water availability than in relatively wet areas. Here, we analyze combinations of changes in rainfall and temperature within the ranges predicted by GCMs, and assess the impact these combinations will have on the environmental capacity for malaria transmission. In particular, we identify climate change scenarios that are likely to have the greatest impact on environmental capacity for malaria transmission, as well as geographic "hot spots" where the greatest changes are to be expected. Christensen, J. H., Busuioc, A., & et al. (2007). Regional climate projections. In S. Solomon (Ed.), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Using data from drug discovery and development to aid the aquatic environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals: concepts, considerations, and challenges.

PubMed

Winter, Matthew J; Owen, Stewart F; Murray-Smith, Richard; Panter, Grace H; Hetheridge, Malcolm J; Kinter, Lewis B

2010-01-01

Over recent years, human pharmaceuticals have been detected in the aquatic environment. This, combined with the fact that many are (by design) biologically active compounds, has raised concern about potential impacts in wildlife species. This concern was realized with two high-profile cases of unforeseen environmental impact (i.e., estrogens and diclofenac), which have led to a flurry of work addressing how best to predict such effects in the future. One area in which considerable research effort has been made, partially in response to regulatory requirements, has been on the potential use of preclinical and clinical pharmacological and toxicological data (generated during drug development from nonhuman mammals and humans) to predict possible effects in nontarget, environmentally relevant species: so-called read across. This approach is strengthened by the fact that many physiological systems are conserved between mammals and certain environmentally relevant species. Consequently, knowledge of how a pharmaceutical works (the “mode-of-action,” or MoA) in nonclinical species and humans could assist in the selection of appropriate test species, study designs, and endpoints, in an approach referred to as “intelligent testing.” Here we outline the data available from the human drug development process and suggest how this might be used to design a testing strategy best suited to the specific characteristics of the drug in question. In addition, we review published data that support this type of approach, discuss the potential pitfalls associated with read across, and identify knowledge gaps that require filling to ensure accuracy in the extrapolation of data from preclinical and clinical studies, for use in the environmental risk assessment of human pharmaceuticals.

Mapping Polymerization and Allostery of Hemoglobin S Using Point Mutations

PubMed Central

Weinkam, Patrick; Sali, Andrej

2014-01-01

Hemoglobin is a complex system that undergoes conformational changes in response to oxygen, allosteric effectors, mutations, and environmental changes. Here, we study allostery and polymerization of hemoglobin and its variants by application of two previously described methods: (i) AllosMod for simulating allostery dynamics given two allosterically related input structures and (ii) a machine-learning method for dynamics- and structure-based prediction of the mutation impact on allostery (Weinkam et al. J. Mol. Biol. 2013), now applicable to systems with multiple coupled binding sites such as hemoglobin. First, we predict the relative stabilities of substates and microstates of hemoglobin, which are determined primarily by entropy within our model. Next, we predict the impact of 866 annotated mutations on hemoglobin’s oxygen binding equilibrium. We then discuss a subset of 30 mutations that occur in the presence of the sickle cell mutation and whose effects on polymerization have been measured. Seven of these HbS mutations occur in three predicted druggable binding pockets that might be exploited to directly inhibit polymerization; one of these binding pockets is not apparent in the crystal structure but only in structures generated by AllosMod. For the 30 mutations, we predict that mutation-induced conformational changes within a single tetramer tend not to significantly impact polymerization; instead, these mutations more likely impact polymerization by directly perturbing a polymerization interface. Finally, our analysis of allostery allows us to hypothesize why hemoglobin evolved to have multiple subunits and a persistent low frequency sickle cell mutation. PMID:23957820

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

GBFEL-TIE (Ground-Based Free Electron Laser Technology Experiment) sample survey on White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico: The NASA, Stallion, and Orogrande Alternatives. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seaman, T.J.; Doleman, W.H.

1988-09-30

Three locations on White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, are under consideration as alternatives for the proposed Ground-Based Free-Electron Laser Technology Integration Experiment (GBFEL-TIE). The study conducted jointly by Prewitt and Associates, Inc., and the Office of Contract Archeology, was designed to provide input into the GBFEL-TIE Draft Environmental Impact Statement concerning the potential impact of the proposed project on cultural resources in each of the alternatives. The input consists of a series of predictions based on data gathered from two sources: (1) a cultural resource sample survey (15%) of two alternatives conducted as part of this study, and (2)more » from a previous survey of the third alternative. A predictive model was devleoped and applied using these data that estimated the potential impact of the GBFEL-TIE facility on the cultural resources within each alternative. The predictions indicate that the NASA alternatives, by far, the least favorable location for the facility followed by the Orogrande and Stallion Alternatives.« less

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Quero, José L.

2012-01-01

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being. PMID:23045705

It is getting hotter in here: determining and projecting the impacts of global environmental change on drylands.

PubMed

Maestre, Fernando T; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Quero, José L

2012-11-19

Drylands occupy large portions of the Earth, and are a key terrestrial biome from the socio-ecological point of view. In spite of their extent and importance, the impacts of global environmental change on them remain poorly understood. In this introduction, we review some of the main expected impacts of global change in drylands, quantify research efforts on the topic, and highlight how the articles included in this theme issue contribute to fill current gaps in our knowledge. Our literature analyses identify key under-studied areas that need more research (e.g. countries such as Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Somalia, and deserts such as the Thar, Kavir and Taklamakan), and indicate that most global change research carried out to date in drylands has been done on a unidisciplinary basis. The contributions included here use a wide array of organisms (from micro-organisms to humans), spatial scales (from local to global) and topics (from plant demography to poverty alleviation) to examine key issues to the socio-ecological impacts of global change in drylands. These papers highlight the complexities and difficulties associated with the prediction of such impacts. They also identify the increased use of long-term experiments and multidisciplinary approaches as priority areas for future dryland research. Major advances in our ability to predict and understand global change impacts on drylands can be achieved by explicitly considering how the responses of individuals, populations and communities will in turn affect ecosystem services. Future research should explore linkages between these responses and their effects on water and climate, as well as the provisioning of services for human development and well-being.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosa, Josianne Claudia Sales, E-mail: jcsrosa@usp.br; Sánchez, Luis E., E-mail: lsanchez@usp.br

Considering ecosystem services (ES) could foster innovation and improve environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) practice, but is the potential being fulfilled? In order to investigate how ES have been treated in recent international practice, three questions are asked: (i) were the tasks of an ES analysis carried out? (ii) how is such analysis integrated with other analysis presented in the ESIA? (iii) does ES analysis result in additional or improved mitigation or enhancement measures? These research questions were unfolded into 15 auxiliary questions for reviewing five ESIA reports prepared for mining, hydroelectric and transportation infrastructure projects in Africa, Asiamore » and South America. All cases incorporated ES into ESIA to meet a requirement of the International Finance Corporation's Performance Standards on Environmental and Social Sustainability. It was found that: (i) in only three cases most tasks recommended by current guidance were adopted (ii) all reports feature a dedicated ES chapter or section, but in three of them no evidence was found that the ES analysis was integrated within impact assessment (iii) in the two ESIAs that followed guidance, ES analysis resulted in specific mitigation measures. Few evidence was found that the ES concept is improving current ESIA practice. Key challenges are: (i) integrating ES analysis in such a way that it does not duplicate other analysis; (ii) adequately characterizing the beneficiaries of ES; and (iii) quantifying ES supply for impact prediction. - Highlights: • Incorporating ecosystem services analysis in impact assessment can improve results. • Additional impacts and mitigation were identified. • Challenges include developing appropriate indicators for impact prediction. • A key challenge is integrating the concept in such a way that it does not duplicate other analysis.« less

Statistical model selection for better prediction and discovering science mechanisms that affect reliability

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Morzinski, Jerome; Blecker, Kenneth D.

2015-08-19

Understanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidatemore » inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. As a result, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model.« less

Predicting Anthropogenic Noise Contributions to US Waters.

PubMed

Gedamke, Jason; Ferguson, Megan; Harrison, Jolie; Hatch, Leila; Henderson, Laurel; Porter, Michael B; Southall, Brandon L; Van Parijs, Sofie

2016-01-01

To increase understanding of the potential effects of chronic underwater noise in US waters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) organized two working groups in 2011, collectively called "CetSound," to develop tools to map the density and distribution of cetaceans (CetMap) and predict the contribution of human activities to underwater noise (SoundMap). The SoundMap effort utilized data on density, distribution, acoustic signatures of dominant noise sources, and environmental descriptors to map estimated temporal, spatial, and spectral contributions to background noise. These predicted soundscapes are an initial step toward assessing chronic anthropogenic noise impacts on the ocean's varied acoustic habitats and the animals utilizing them.

The debt of nations and the distribution of ecological impacts from human activities

PubMed Central

Srinivasan, U. Thara; Carey, Susan P.; Hallstein, Eric; Higgins, Paul A. T.; Kerr, Amber C.; Koteen, Laura E.; Smith, Adam B.; Watson, Reg; Harte, John; Norgaard, Richard B.

2008-01-01

As human impacts to the environment accelerate, disparities in the distribution of damages between rich and poor nations mount. Globally, environmental change is dramatically affecting the flow of ecosystem services, but the distribution of ecological damages and their driving forces has not been estimated. Here, we conservatively estimate the environmental costs of human activities over 1961–2000 in six major categories (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, agricultural intensification and expansion, deforestation, overfishing, and mangrove conversion), quantitatively connecting costs borne by poor, middle-income, and rich nations to specific activities by each of these groups. Adjusting impact valuations for different standards of living across the groups as commonly practiced, we find striking imbalances. Climate change and ozone depletion impacts predicted for low-income nations have been overwhelmingly driven by emissions from the other two groups, a pattern also observed for overfishing damages indirectly driven by the consumption of fishery products. Indeed, through disproportionate emissions of greenhouse gases alone, the rich group may have imposed climate damages on the poor group greater than the latter's current foreign debt. Our analysis provides prima facie evidence for an uneven distribution pattern of damages across income groups. Moreover, our estimates of each group's share in various damaging activities are independent from controversies in environmental valuation methods. In a world increasingly connected ecologically and economically, our analysis is thus an early step toward reframing issues of environmental responsibility, development, and globalization in accordance with ecological costs. PMID:18212119

Combined use of SAR and optical data for environmental assessments around refugee camps in semiarid landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, A.; Hochschild, V.

2015-04-01

Over 15 million people were officially considered as refugees in the year 2012 and another 28 million as internally displaced people (IDPs). Natural disasters, climatic and environmental changes, violent regional conflicts and population growth force people to migrate in all parts of this world. This trend is likely to continue in the near future, as political instabilities increase and land degradation progresses. EO4HumEn aims at developing operational services to support humanitarian operations during crisis situations by means of dedicated geo-spatial information products derived from Earth observation and GIS data. The goal is to develop robust, automated methods of image analysis routines for population estimation, identification of potential groundwater extraction sites and monitoring the environmental impact of refugee/IDP camps. This study investigates the combination of satellite SAR data with optical sensors and elevation information for the assessment of the environmental conditions around refugee camps. In order to estimate their impact on land degradation, land cover classifications are required which target dynamic landscapes. We performed a land use / land cover classification based on a random forest algorithm and 39 input prediction rasters based on Landsat 8 data and additional layers generated from radar texture and elevation information. The overall accuracy was 92.9 %, while optical data had the highest impact on the final classification. By analysing all combinations of the three input datasets we additionally estimated their impact on single classification outcomes and land cover classes.

Practitioner perspectives on the role of science in environmental impact assessment.

PubMed

Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Bailey, John

2003-06-01

A large body of literature addresses the role of science in environmental impact assessment (EIA) but less attention has been given to the views of practitioners themselves. In this research a survey of 31 EIA practitioners in Western Australia was undertaken to determine their perceptions of the quality and importance of science in EIA. The survey results are compared with previous theoretical, empirical, and survey studies of the role of science in EIA. Interview questions addressed the role of science in impact prediction, monitoring activities, mitigation and management, and EIA decision-making. It was clear from the interviews that many practitioners are satisfied with the quality of science currently used in EIA, but do not believe that it is given sufficient importance in the process. The quality and importance of science in the predecision stages of EIA was rated higher than in the postdecision stages. While science was perceived to provide the basis for baseline data collection, impact prediction, and mitigation design, it was seen to be less important during decision-making and ongoing project management. Science was seen to be just one input to decision-makers along with other factors such as sociopolitical and economic considerations. While time and budget constraints were seen to limit the scientific integrity of EIA activities, pressure from the public and regulatory authorities increased it. Improving the scientific component of EIA will require consideration of all these factors, not just the technical issues.

Transport, retention, and size perturbation of graphene oxide in saturated porous media: Effects of input concentration and grain size

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurately predicting the fate and transport of graphene oxide (GO) in porous media is critical to assess its environmental impact. In this work, sand column experiments were conducted to determine the effect of input concentration and grain size on transport, retention, and size perturbation of GO ...

Breeding for sustainable production in a changing climate – understanding the physiological basis of genetic by environmental interactions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Abiotic stresses (drought, cold, heat, excess, water, salinity) result in loses in yield and quality of crops. In addition, these stresses limit the areas that can be cultivated because of yield instability and crop loss. Global warming models predict erratic weather patterns making the impact of th...

Assessment of Soil Erosion in a Cultivated Landscape Using Repeated Measurements of 137Cs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion is a major environmental concern with the potential to severely impact soil and water quality. Assessments of soil erosion are normally carried out using model predictions. Cesium-137 can be used to provide estimates of soil erosion at a landscape scale, and it remains the best tool to ...

Prediction of Environmental Impact of High-Energy Materials with Atomistic Computer Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

from a training set of compounds. Other methods include Quantitative Struc- ture-Activity Relationship ( QSAR ) and Quantitative Structure-Property...26 28 the development of QSPR/ QSAR models, in contrast to boiling points and critical parameters derived from empirical correlations, to improve...Quadratic Configuration Interaction Singles Doubles QSAR Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship QSPR Quantitative Structure-Property

Precipitation drives interannual variation in summer soil respiration in a Mediterranean-climate, mixed-conifer forest

Treesearch

M. Concilio; J. Chen; S. Ma; M. North

2009-01-01

Predictions of future climate change rely on models of how both environmental conditions and disturbance impact carbon cycling at various temporal and spatial scales. Few multi-year studies, however, have examined how carbon efflux is affected by the interaction of disturbance and interannual climate variation. We measured daytime soil respiration (R...