Adolescent insecure attachment as a predictor of maladaptive coping and externalizing behaviors in emerging adulthood

PubMed Central

Dawson, Anne E.; Allen, Joseph P.; Marston, Emily G.; Hafen, Christopher A.; Schad, Megan M.

2014-01-01

This study investigated whether insecure adolescent attachment organization (i.e., preoccupied and dismissing) longitudinally predicted self- and peer-reported externalizing behavior in emerging adulthood. Secondarily, maladaptive coping strategies were examined for their potential role in mediating the relationship between insecure attachment and future externalizing behaviors. Target participants (N = 184) were given the Adult Attachment Interview (AAI) at age 14 and re-interviewed seven and eight years later with their closest peer. Qualities of both preoccupied and dismissing attachment organization predicted self-reported externalizing behaviors in emerging adulthood eight years later, but only preoccupation was predictive of close-peer reports of emerging adult externalizing behavior. Maladaptive coping strategies only mediated the relationship between a dismissing stance toward attachment and future self-reported externalizing behaviors. Understanding the role of coping and emotional regulation in attachment may help us to understand the unique aspects of both dismissing and preoccupied stances toward attachment. PMID:24995478

Predictability of the future development of aggressive behavior of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas based on decision tree analysis.

PubMed

Satomi, Junichiro; Ghaibeh, A Ammar; Moriguchi, Hiroki; Nagahiro, Shinji

2015-07-01

The severity of clinical signs and symptoms of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs) are well correlated with their pattern of venous drainage. Although the presence of cortical venous drainage can be considered a potential predictor of aggressive DAVF behaviors, such as intracranial hemorrhage or progressive neurological deficits due to venous congestion, accurate statistical analyses are currently not available. Using a decision tree data mining method, the authors aimed at clarifying the predictability of the future development of aggressive behaviors of DAVF and at identifying the main causative factors. Of 266 DAVF patients, 89 were eligible for analysis. Under observational management, 51 patients presented with intracranial hemorrhage/infarction during the follow-up period. The authors created a decision tree able to assess the risk for the development of aggressive DAVF behavior. Evaluated by 10-fold cross-validation, the decision tree's accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 85.28%, 88.33%, and 80.83%, respectively. The tree shows that the main factor in symptomatic patients was the presence of cortical venous drainage. In its absence, the lesion location determined the risk of a DAVF developing aggressive behavior. Decision tree analysis accurately predicts the future development of aggressive DAVF behavior.

BehavePlus fire modeling system: Past, present, and future

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2007-01-01

Use of mathematical fire models to predict fire behavior and fire effects plays an important supporting role in wildland fire management. When used in conjunction with personal fire experience and a basic understanding of the fire models, predictions can be successfully applied to a range of fire management activities including wildfire behavior prediction, prescribed...

A Unified Framework for Activity Recognition-Based Behavior Analysis and Action Prediction in Smart Homes

PubMed Central

Fatima, Iram; Fahim, Muhammad; Lee, Young-Koo; Lee, Sungyoung

2013-01-01

In recent years, activity recognition in smart homes is an active research area due to its applicability in many applications, such as assistive living and healthcare. Besides activity recognition, the information collected from smart homes has great potential for other application domains like lifestyle analysis, security and surveillance, and interaction monitoring. Therefore, discovery of users common behaviors and prediction of future actions from past behaviors become an important step towards allowing an environment to provide personalized service. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for activity recognition-based behavior analysis and action prediction. For this purpose, first we propose kernel fusion method for accurate activity recognition and then identify the significant sequential behaviors of inhabitants from recognized activities of their daily routines. Moreover, behaviors patterns are further utilized to predict the future actions from past activities. To evaluate the proposed framework, we performed experiments on two real datasets. The results show a remarkable improvement of 13.82% in the accuracy on average of recognized activities along with the extraction of significant behavioral patterns and precise activity predictions with 6.76% increase in F-measure. All this collectively help in understanding the users” actions to gain knowledge about their habits and preferences. PMID:23435057

The Theory of Planned Behavior as a Model of Heavy Episodic Drinking Among College Students

PubMed Central

Collins, Susan E.; Carey, Kate B.

2008-01-01

This study provided a simultaneous, confirmatory test of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) in predicting heavy episodic drinking (HED) among college students. It was hypothesized that past HED, drinking attitudes, subjective norms and drinking refusal self-efficacy would predict intention, which would in turn predict future HED. Participants consisted of 131 college drinkers (63% female) who reported having engaged in HED in the previous two weeks. Participants were recruited and completed questionnaires within the context of a larger intervention study (see Collins & Carey, 2005). Latent factor structural equation modeling was used to test the ability of the TPB to predict HED. Chi-square tests and fit indices indicated good fit for the final structural models. Self-efficacy and attitudes but not subjective norms significantly predicted baseline intention, and intention and past HED predicted future HED. Contrary to hypotheses, however, a structural model excluding past HED provided a better fit than a model including it. Although further studies must be conducted before a definitive conclusion is reached, a TPB model excluding past behavior, which is arguably more parsimonious and theory driven, may provide better prediction of HED among college drinkers than a model including past behavior. PMID:18072832

Born Knowing: Tentacled Snakes Innately Predict Future Prey Behavior

PubMed Central

Catania, Kenneth C.

2010-01-01

Background Aquatic tentacled snakes (Erpeton tentaculatus) can take advantage of their prey's escape response by startling fish with their body before striking. The feint usually startles fish toward the snake's approaching jaws. But when fish are oriented at a right angle to the jaws, the C-start escape response translates fish parallel to the snake's head. To exploit this latter response, snakes must predict the future location of the fish. Adult snakes can make this prediction. Is it learned, or are tentacled snakes born able to predict future fish behavior? Methods and Findings Laboratory-born, naïve snakes were investigated as they struck at fish. Trials were recorded at 250 or 500 frames per second. To prevent learning, snakes were placed in a water container with a clear transparency sheet or glass bottom. The chamber was placed over a channel in a separate aquarium with fish below. Thus snakes could see and strike at fish, without contact. The snake's body feint elicited C-starts in the fish below the transparency sheet, allowing strike accuracy to be quantified in relationship to the C-starts. When fish were oriented at a right angle to the jaws, naïve snakes biased their strikes to the future location of the escaping fish's head, such that the snake's jaws and the fish's translating head usually converged. Several different types of predictive strikes were observed. Conclusions The results show that some predators have adapted their nervous systems to directly compensate for the future behavior of prey in a sensory realm that usually requires learning. Instead of behavior selected during their lifetime, newborn tentacled snakes exhibit behavior that has been selected on a different scale—over many generations. Counter adaptations in fish are not expected, as tentacled snakes are rare predators exploiting fish responses that are usually adaptive. PMID:20585384

Psychopathy and Deviant Workplace Behavior: A Comparison of Two Psychopathy Models.

PubMed

Carre, Jessica R; Mueller, Steven M; Schleicher, Karly M; Jones, Daniel N

2018-04-01

Although psychopathy is an interpersonally harmful construct, few studies have compared different psycho athy models in predicting different types of workplace deviance. We examined how the Triarchic Psychopathy Model (TRI-PM) and the Self-Report Psychopathy-Short Form (SRP-SF) predicted deviant workplace behaviors in two forms: sexual harassment and deviant work behaviors. Using structural equations modeling, the latent factor of psychopathy was predictive for both types of deviant workplace behavior. Specifically, the SRP-SF signif cantly predicted both measures of deviant workplace behavior. With respect to the TRI-PM, meanness and disinhibition significantly predicted higher scores of workplace deviance and workplace sexual harassment measures. Future research needs to investigate the influence of psychopathy on deviant workplace behaviors, and consider the measures they use when they investigate these constructs.

Predicting Noninsulin Antidiabetic Drug Adherence Using a Theoretical Framework Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Zomahoun, Hervé Tchala Vignon; Moisan, Jocelyne; Lauzier, Sophie; Guillaumie, Laurence; Grégoire, Jean-Pierre; Guénette, Line

2016-01-01

Abstract Understanding the process behind noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) nonadherence is necessary for designing effective interventions to resolve this problem. This study aimed to explore the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB), which is known as a good predictor of behaviors, to predict the future NIAD adherence in adults with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a prospective study of adults with type 2 diabetes. They completed a questionnaire on TPB variables and external variables. Linear regression was used to explore the TPB's ability to predict future NIAD adherence, which was prospectively measured as the proportion of days covered by at least 1 NIAD using pharmacy claims data. The interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention was tested. The sample included 340 people. There was an interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention to adhere to the NIAD (P = 0.032). Intention did not predict future NIAD adherence in the past adherers and nonadherers groups, but its association measure was high among past nonadherers (β = 5.686, 95% confidence interval [CI] −10.174, 21.546). In contrast, intention was mainly predicted by perceived behavioral control both in the past adherers (β = 0.900, 95% CI 0.796, 1.004) and nonadherers groups (β = 0.760, 95% CI 0.555, 0.966). The present study suggests that TPB is a good tool to predict intention to adhere and future NIAD adherence. However, there was a gap between intention to adhere and actual adherence to the NIAD, which is partly explained by the past adherence level in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:27082543

Using the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction to Understand College Students' STI Testing Beliefs, Intentions, and Behaviors.

PubMed

Wombacher, Kevin; Dai, Minhao; Matig, Jacob J; Harrington, Nancy Grant

2018-03-22

To identify salient behavioral determinants related to STI testing among college students by testing a model based on the integrative model of behavioral (IMBP) prediction. 265 undergraduate students from a large university in the Southeastern US. Formative and survey research to test an IMBP-based model that explores the relationships between determinants and STI testing intention and behavior. Results of path analyses supported a model in which attitudinal beliefs predicted intention and intention predicted behavior. Normative beliefs and behavioral control beliefs were not significant in the model; however, select individual normative and control beliefs were significantly correlated with intention and behavior. Attitudinal beliefs are the strongest predictor of STI testing intention and behavior. Future efforts to increase STI testing rates should identify and target salient attitudinal beliefs.

Symbolic Processing Combined with Model-Based Reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2009-01-01

A computer program for the detection of present and prediction of future discrete states of a complex, real-time engineering system utilizes a combination of symbolic processing and numerical model-based reasoning. One of the biggest weaknesses of a purely symbolic approach is that it enables prediction of only future discrete states while missing all unmodeled states or leading to incorrect identification of an unmodeled state as a modeled one. A purely numerical approach is based on a combination of statistical methods and mathematical models of the applicable physics and necessitates development of a complete model to the level of fidelity required for prediction. In addition, a purely numerical approach does not afford the ability to qualify its results without some form of symbolic processing. The present software implements numerical algorithms to detect unmodeled events and symbolic algorithms to predict expected behavior, correlate the expected behavior with the unmodeled events, and interpret the results in order to predict future discrete states. The approach embodied in this software differs from that of the BEAM methodology (aspects of which have been discussed in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles), which provides for prediction of future measurements in the continuous-data domain.

Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

PubMed

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-09-01

Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

The Role of Present Time Perspective in Predicting Early Adolescent Violence.

PubMed

Kruger, Daniel J; Carrothers, Jessica; Franzen, Susan P; Miller, Alison L; Reischl, Thomas M; Stoddard, Sarah A; Zimmerman, Marc A

2018-06-01

This study investigated the role of present and future time perspectives, and their relationships with subjective norms and beliefs regarding violence, in predicting violent behaviors among urban middle school students in the Midwestern United States. Although present time perspective covaried with subjective norms and beliefs, each made a unique prediction of self-reported violent behaviors. Future time perspective was not a significant predictor when accounting for these relationships. In addition, present orientation moderated the relationship between subjective norms and beliefs and rates of violent behaviors; those with higher present orientations exhibited stronger associations. We replicated this pattern of results in data from new participants in a subsequent wave of the study. Interventions that explicitly address issues related to time perspective may be effective in reducing early adolescent violence.

Anticipated affective consequences of physical activity adoption and maintenance.

PubMed

Dunton, Genevieve Fridlund; Vaughan, Elaine

2008-11-01

The expected emotional consequences of future actions are thought to play an important role in health behavior change. This research examined whether anticipated affective consequences of success and failure vary across stages of physical activity change and differentially predict physical activity adoption as compared to maintenance. Using a prospective design over a 3-month period, a community sample of 329 healthy, middle-aged adults were assessed at 2 time points. Anticipated positive and negative emotions, stage of behavior change (precontemplation [PC], contemplation [C], preparation [P], action [A], maintenance [M]), and level of physical activity. At baseline, anticipated positive emotions were greater in C versus PC, whereas anticipated negative emotions were greater in M versus A and in M versus P. Higher anticipated positive but not negative emotions predicted physical activity adoption and maintenance after 3 months. Although the expected affective consequences of future success and failure differentiated among individuals in the early and later stages of physical activity change, respectively; only the anticipated affective consequences of success predicted future behavior.

Relationships Between Future Orientation, Impulsive Sensation Seeking, and Risk Behavior Among Adjudicated Adolescents

PubMed Central

Robbins, Reuben N.; Bryan, Angela

2005-01-01

Because of high levels of risk behavior, adjudicated adolescents are at high risk for negative health outcomes such as nicotine and drug addiction and sexually transmitted diseases. The goal of this article is to examine relationships between future orientation and impulsive-sensation-seeking personality constructs to risk behaviors among 300 adjudicated adolescents. Significant relationships between impulsive sensation seeking and future orientation were found for several risk behaviors. Individuals with more positive future orientation were less likely to use marijuana, hard drugs, alcohol during sex, had fewer alcohol problems, had lower levels of alcohol frequency and quantity of use, and perceived greater risks associated with such behaviors. Higher impulsivity reliably predicted alcohol problems, alcohol use, condom use, and cigarette smoking. PMID:16429605

Adolescents' aggressive and prosocial behavior: associations with jealousy and social anxiety.

PubMed

Culotta, Carmen M; Goldstein, Sara E

2008-03-01

The authors examined how relational aggression, physical aggression, and proactive prosocial behavior were associated with jealousy and social anxiety in a diverse sample of 60 middle school students. After the authors controlled for gender and race, jealousy predicted relational aggression and proactive prosocial behavior, but it did not predict physical aggression. Additionally, social anxiety predicted proactive prosocial behavior. Adolescents who were more jealous in their peer relationships also tended to engage in relational aggression and proactive prosocial behavior, and adolescents who were more socially anxious also tended to be proactively prosocial. The authors discuss the implications of these findings and suggest directions for future research.

Human Adaptive Behavior in Common Pool Resource Systems

PubMed Central

Brandt, Gunnar; Merico, Agostino; Vollan, Björn; Schlüter, Achim

2012-01-01

Overexploitation of common-pool resources, resulting from uncooperative harvest behavior, is a major problem in many social-ecological systems. Feedbacks between user behavior and resource productivity induce non-linear dynamics in the harvest and the resource stock that complicate the understanding and the prediction of the co-evolutionary system. With an adaptive model constrained by data from a behavioral economic experiment, we show that users’ expectations of future pay-offs vary as a result of the previous harvest experience, the time-horizon, and the ability to communicate. In our model, harvest behavior is a trait that adjusts to continuously changing potential returns according to a trade-off between the users’ current harvest and the discounted future productivity of the resource. Given a maximum discount factor, which quantifies the users’ perception of future pay-offs, the temporal dynamics of harvest behavior and ecological resource can be predicted. Our results reveal a non-linear relation between the previous harvest and current discount rates, which is most sensitive around a reference harvest level. While higher than expected returns resulting from cooperative harvesting in the past increase the importance of future resource productivity and foster sustainability, harvests below the reference level lead to a downward spiral of increasing overexploitation and disappointing returns. PMID:23285180

Alcohol-induced blackouts, subjective intoxication, and motivation to decrease drinking: Prospective examination of the transition out of college.

PubMed

Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

2018-05-01

We prospectively examined whether subjective intoxication serves as a risk factor for experiencing alcohol-induced blackouts. We then examined whether subjective intoxication and/or blackouts predicted motivation to decrease their drinking, and whether this motivation to change would promote future changes in drinking behavior. Participants (N=1854, 62.1% female, 53.2% Caucasian, M age =21.8) were recruited the summer prior to matriculating into a large, public university to complete a 6-year longitudinal study. Self-reported motivation to decrease their drinking behavior, their frequency of blackouts, quantity of alcohol consumption, and subjective intoxication (i.e., feeling drunk) were assessed annually during the transition out of college (Years 4-6). In a cross-lagged model, subjective intoxication (i.e., feeling drunk) prospectively predicted experiencing blackouts (p<0.001). Controlling for both objective (e.g., quantity) and subjective intoxication, blackouts at Year 4 predicted greater motivation to decrease drinking behavior at Year 5 (p<0.01), but this motivation did not predict less quantity of alcohol use by Year 6 (p=0.076). Subjective intoxication is a robust predictor of blackouts across time. Additionally, blackouts are modest, developmentally-limited predictors of motivation to change drinking behavior, but blackouts do not predict future behavior change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy after Ellis: Predictions for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinrach, Stephen G.; Ellis, Albert; DiGiuseppe, Raymond; Bernard, Michael E.; Dryden, Windy; Kassinove, Howard; Morris, G. Barry; Vernon, Ann; Wolfe, Janet

1995-01-01

Nine members of the institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy's (REBT) International Training Standards and Review Committee predicted the status of REBT 25 to 50 years after the death of Albert Ellis. Will REBT continue to exist in its own right or be incorporated into newer forms of cognitive behavior therapy? (EMK)

The role of descriptive norm within the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean Americans' exercise behavior.

PubMed

Lee, Hyo

2011-08-01

There are few studies investigating psychosocial mechanisms in Korean Americans' exercise behavior. The present study tested the usefulness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean American's exercise behavior and whether the descriptive norm (i.e., perceptions of what others do) improved the predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior. Using a retrospective design and self-report measures, web-survey responses from 198 Korean-American adults were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. The theory of planned behavior constructs accounted for 31% of exercise behavior and 43% of exercise intention. Intention and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of exercise behavior. Although the descriptive norm did not augment the theory of planned behavior, all original constructs--attitude, injunctive norm (a narrow definition of subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control--statistically significantly predicted leisure-time physical activity intention. Future studies should consider random sampling, prospective design, and objective measures of physical activity.

Prediction of sport adherence through the influence of autonomy-supportive coaching among spanish adolescent athletes.

PubMed

Almagro, Bartolomé J; Sáenz-López, Pedro; Moreno, Juan A

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test a motivational model of the coach-athlete relationship, based on self-determination theory and on the hierarchical model of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. The sample comprised of 608 athletes (ages of 12-17 years) completed the following measures: interest in athlete's input, praise for autonomous behavior, perceived autonomy, intrinsic motivation, and the intention to be physically active. Structural equation modeling results demonstrated that interest in athletes' input and praise for autonomous behavior predicted perceived autonomy, and perceived autonomy positively predicted intrinsic motivation. Finally, intrinsic motivation predicted the intention to be physically active in the future. The results are discussed in relation to the importance of the climate of autonomy support created by the coach on intrinsic motivation and adherence to sport by adolescent athletes. Further, the results provide information related to the possible objectives of future interventions for the education of coaches, with the goal of providing them with tools and strategies to favor the development of intrinsic motivation among their athletes. In conclusion, the climate of autonomy support created by the coach can predict the autonomy perceived by the athletes which predicts the intrinsic motivation experienced by the athletes, and therefore, their adherence to athletic practice. Key pointsImportance of the climate of autonomy support created by the coach on intrinsic motivation and adherence to sport by adolescent athletes.Interest in athletes' input and praise for autonomous behavior predicted perceived autonomy, and perceived autonomy positively predicted intrinsic motivation.Intrinsic motivation predicted the intention to be physically active in the future.

Prediction of Sport Adherence Through the Influence of Autonomy-Supportive Coaching Among Spanish Adolescent Athletes

PubMed Central

Almagro, Bartolomé J.; Sáenz-López, Pedro; Moreno, Juan A.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test a motivational model of the coach-athlete relationship, based on self-determination theory and on the hierarchical model of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. The sample comprised of 608 athletes (ages of 12-17 years) completed the following measures: interest in athlete's input, praise for autonomous behavior, perceived autonomy, intrinsic motivation, and the intention to be physically active. Structural equation modeling results demonstrated that interest in athletes' input and praise for autonomous behavior predicted perceived autonomy, and perceived autonomy positively predicted intrinsic motivation. Finally, intrinsic motivation predicted the intention to be physically active in the future. The results are discussed in relation to the importance of the climate of autonomy support created by the coach on intrinsic motivation and adherence to sport by adolescent athletes. Further, the results provide information related to the possible objectives of future interventions for the education of coaches, with the goal of providing them with tools and strategies to favor the development of intrinsic motivation among their athletes. In conclusion, the climate of autonomy support created by the coach can predict the autonomy perceived by the athletes which predicts the intrinsic motivation experienced by the athletes, and therefore, their adherence to athletic practice. Key points Importance of the climate of autonomy support created by the coach on intrinsic motivation and adherence to sport by adolescent athletes. Interest in athletes' input and praise for autonomous behavior predicted perceived autonomy, and perceived autonomy positively predicted intrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation predicted the intention to be physically active in the future. PMID:24149380

National differences in environmental concern and performance are predicted by country age.

PubMed

Hershfield, Hal E; Bang, H Min; Weber, Elke U

2014-01-01

There are obvious economic predictors of ability and willingness to invest in environmental sustainability. Yet, given that environmental decisions represent trade-offs between present sacrifices and uncertain future benefits, psychological factors may also play a role in country-level environmental behavior. Gott's principle suggests that citizens may use perceptions of their country's age to predict its future continuation, with longer pasts predicting longer futures. Using country- and individual-level analyses, we examined whether longer perceived pasts result in longer perceived futures, which in turn motivate concern for continued environmental quality. Study 1 found that older countries scored higher on an environmental performance index, even when the analysis controlled for country-level differences in gross domestic product and governance. Study 2 showed that when the United States was framed as an old country (vs. a young one), participants were willing to donate more money to an environmental organization. The findings suggest that framing a country as a long-standing entity may effectively prompt proenvironmental behavior.

Intrapersonal positive future thinking predicts repeat suicide attempts in hospital-treated suicide attempters.

PubMed

O'Connor, Rory C; Smyth, Roger; Williams, J Mark G

2015-02-01

Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking-suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression-as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking-suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Intrapersonal Positive Future Thinking Predicts Repeat Suicide Attempts in Hospital-Treated Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective: Although there is clear evidence that low levels of positive future thinking (anticipation of positive experiences in the future) and hopelessness are associated with suicide risk, the relationship between the content of positive future thinking and suicidal behavior has yet to be investigated. This is the first study to determine whether the positive future thinking–suicide attempt relationship varies as a function of the content of the thoughts and whether positive future thinking predicts suicide attempts over time. Method: A total of 388 patients hospitalized following a suicide attempt completed a range of clinical and psychological measures (depression, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, suicidal intent and positive future thinking). Fifteen months later, a nationally linked database was used to determine who had been hospitalized again after a suicide attempt. Results: During follow-up, 25.6% of linked participants were readmitted to hospital following a suicide attempt. In univariate logistic regression analyses, previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, hopelessness, and depression—as well as low levels of achievement, low levels of financial positive future thoughts, and high levels of intrapersonal (thoughts about the individual and no one else) positive future thoughts predicted repeat suicide attempts. However, only previous suicide attempts, suicidal ideation, and high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking were significant predictors in multivariate analyses. Discussion: Positive future thinking has predictive utility over time; however, the content of the thinking affects the direction and strength of the positive future thinking–suicidal behavior relationship. Future research is required to understand the mechanisms that link high levels of intrapersonal positive future thinking to suicide risk and how intrapersonal thinking should be targeted in treatment interventions. PMID:25181026

Motivational power of future time perspective: Meta-analyses in education, work, and health.

PubMed

Andre, Lucija; van Vianen, Annelies E M; Peetsma, Thea T D; Oort, Frans J

2018-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) may predict individual attitudes and behaviors. However, FTP research includes different FTP conceptualizations and outcomes which hinder generalizing its findings. To solve the inconsistencies in FTP research and generalize the magnitude of FTP as a driver of motivation and behavior, we conducted the first systematical synthesis of FTP relationships in three crucial life domains. Our meta-analyses of FTP studies in education (k = 28), work (k = 17), and health (k = 32) involved N = 31,558 participants, and used a conceptual model for grouping FTP constructs. To address different outcome types, we applied the Theory of Planned Behavior when coding the studies. FTP relationships with outcomes were small-to-medium, were generalizable across domains, and were strongest when the FTP construct included a mixture of cognition, behavioral intention, and affect and, in education, when the FTP measure was domain specific rather than general. There were cross-cultural differences in FTP-outcome relationships. The strength of the FTP-outcome types relationship varied for attitudes, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intention, and behaviors. The lowest effect sizes were found for FTP predicting actual behaviors in education, work, and health and between FTP and health attitudes. Theoretical implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed.

Motivational power of future time perspective: Meta-analyses in education, work, and health

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Future time perspective (FTP) may predict individual attitudes and behaviors. However, FTP research includes different FTP conceptualizations and outcomes which hinder generalizing its findings. To solve the inconsistencies in FTP research and generalize the magnitude of FTP as a driver of motivation and behavior, we conducted the first systematical synthesis of FTP relationships in three crucial life domains. Our meta-analyses of FTP studies in education (k = 28), work (k = 17), and health (k = 32) involved N = 31,558 participants, and used a conceptual model for grouping FTP constructs. To address different outcome types, we applied the Theory of Planned Behavior when coding the studies. FTP relationships with outcomes were small-to-medium, were generalizable across domains, and were strongest when the FTP construct included a mixture of cognition, behavioral intention, and affect and, in education, when the FTP measure was domain specific rather than general. There were cross-cultural differences in FTP-outcome relationships. The strength of the FTP-outcome types relationship varied for attitudes, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intention, and behaviors. The lowest effect sizes were found for FTP predicting actual behaviors in education, work, and health and between FTP and health attitudes. Theoretical implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed. PMID:29364917

Transition and protective agency of early childhood learning behaviors as portents of later school attendance and adjustment.

PubMed

McDermott, Paul A; Rikoon, Samuel H; Fantuzzo, John W

2016-02-01

This article reports on the study of differential change trajectories for early childhood learning behaviors as they relate to future classroom adjustment and school attendance. A large sample (N=2152) of Head Start children was followed through prekindergarten, kindergarten, and 1st grade. Classroom learning behaviors were assessed twice each year by teachers who observed gradual declines in Competence Motivation and Attentional Persistence as children transitioned through schooling. Cross-classified multilevel growth models revealed distinct transitional pathways for future adjustment versus maladjustment and sporadic versus chronic absenteeism. Generalized multilevel logistic modeling and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that teachers' earliest assessments were substantially predictive of eventual good classroom adjustment and school attendance, with increasing accuracy for prediction of future sociobehavioral adjustment as time progressed. Copyright © 2015 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Concern and Disregard for Others as Predictors of Antisocial Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhee, Soo Hyun; Friedman, Naomi P.; Boeldt, Debra L.; Corley, Robin P.; Hewitt, John. K.; Knafo, Ariel; Lahey, Benjamin B.; Robinson, JoAnn; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Young, Susan E.; Zahn-Waxler, Carolyn

2013-01-01

Background: Prediction of antisocial behavior is important, given its adverse impact on both the individuals engaging in antisocial behavior and society. Additional research identifying early predictors of future antisocial behavior, or antisocial propensity, is needed. The present study tested the hypothesis that both concern for others and…

Perceived Reasons for Living at Index Hospitalization and Future Suicide Attempt

PubMed Central

Lizardi, Dana; Currier, Diane; Galfalvy, Hanga; Sher, Leo; Burke, Ainsley; Mann, John; Oquendo, Maria

2013-01-01

It is unclear why certain individuals choose not to engage in suicidal behavior. Although important, protective factors against suicidal behavior have seldom been studied. The Reasons for Living Inventory is a measure of putative protective factors that is inversely related to a history of suicide attempts, but its predictive utility remains relatively untested. This study sought to determine whether the Reasons for Living Inventory predicts future suicide attempts over a 2-year period. Depressed inpatients were assessed for reasons for living and were followed for 2 years. Follow-up interviews took place at 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years after discharge from the index hospitalization. Survival analysis indicates a high score on the Reasons for Living Inventory predicted fewer future suicide attempts within a 2-year period in women but not in men. Perceived reasons for living serve as protective factors against suicide attempt in women and not in men. PMID:17502812

Adolescents’ expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood

PubMed Central

McDade, Thomas W.; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J.; Hoyt, Lindsay T.; Doane, Leah D.; Adam, Emma K.

2011-01-01

Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.—perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college—are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health. PMID:21764487

Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood.

PubMed

McDade, Thomas W; Chyu, Laura; Duncan, Greg J; Hoyt, Lindsay T; Doane, Leah D; Adam, Emma K

2011-08-01

Health-related behaviors in adolescence establish trajectories of risk for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases, and they represent an important pathway through which socio-economic environments shape patterns of morbidity and mortality. Most behaviors that promote health involve making choices that may not pay off until the future, but the factors that predict an individual's investment in future health are not known. In this paper we consider whether expectations for the future in two domains relevant to adolescents in the U.S.-perceived chances of living to middle age and perceived chances of attending college-are associated with an individual's engagement in behaviors that protect health in the long run. We focus on adolescence as an important life stage during which habits formed may shape trajectories of disease risk later in life. We use data from a large, nationally representative sample of American youth (the US National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health) to predict levels of physical activity, fast food consumption, and cigarette smoking in young adulthood in relation to perceived life chances in adolescence, controlling for baseline health behaviors and a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We found that adolescents who rated their chances of attending college more highly exercised more frequently and smoked fewer cigarettes in young adulthood. Adolescents with higher expectations of living to age 35 smoked fewer cigarettes as young adults. Parental education was a significant predictor of perceived life chances, as well as health behaviors, but for each outcome the effects of perceived life chances were independent of, and often stronger than, parental education. Perceived life chances in adolescence may therefore play an important role in establishing individual trajectories of health, and in contributing to social gradients in population health. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced Neural Responses to Imagined Primary Rewards Predict Reduced Monetary Temporal Discounting.

PubMed

Hakimi, Shabnam; Hare, Todd A

2015-09-23

The pervasive tendency to discount the value of future rewards varies considerably across individuals and has important implications for health and well-being. Here, we used fMRI with human participants to examine whether an individual's neural representation of an imagined primary reward predicts the degree to which the value of delayed monetary payments is discounted. Because future rewards can never be experienced at the time of choice, imagining or simulating the benefits of a future reward may play a critical role in decisions between alternatives with either immediate or delayed benefits. We found that enhanced ventromedial prefrontal cortex response during imagined primary reward receipt was correlated with reduced discounting in a separate monetary intertemporal choice task. Furthermore, activity in enhanced ventromedial prefrontal cortex during reward imagination predicted temporal discounting behavior both between- and within-individual decision makers with 62% and 73% mean balanced accuracy, respectively. These results suggest that the quality of reward imagination may impact the degree to which future outcomes are discounted. Significance statement: We report a novel test of the hypothesis that an important factor influencing the discount rate for future rewards is the quality with which they are imagined or estimated in the present. Previous work has shown that temporal discounting is linked to individual characteristics ranging from general intelligence to the propensity for addiction. We demonstrate that individual differences in a neurobiological measure of primary reward imagination are significantly correlated with discounting rates for future monetary payments. Moreover, our neurobiological measure of imagination can be used to accurately predict choice behavior both between and within individuals. These results suggest that improving reward imagination may be a useful therapeutic target for individuals whose high discount rates promote detrimental behaviors. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3513103-07$15.00/0.

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

2016-01-01

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

Symptoms of conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and callous-unemotional traits as unique predictors of psychosocial maladjustment in boys: advancing an evidence base for DSM-V.

PubMed

Pardini, Dustin A; Fite, Paula J

2010-11-01

The incremental utility of symptoms of conduct disorder (CD), oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and callous-unemotional (CU) traits for predicting psychosocial outcomes across multiple domains was examined in a community sample of 1,517 boys. Several outcomes were assessed semiannually across a 2-year follow-up, including antisocial behavior, internalizing problems, peer conflict, and academic difficulties. Official criminal charges were also examined across adolescence. CD symptoms emerged as the most robust predictor of future antisocial outcomes. However, ODD symptoms predicted later criminal charges and conduct problems, and CU traits were robustly associated with serious and persistent criminal behavior in boys. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms predicted increases in oppositional defiant behavior and conduct problems over time and were uniquely related to future academic difficulties. Both ADHD and ODD symptoms predicted social and internalizing problems in boys, whereas CU traits were associated with decreased internalizing problems over time. The current findings have implications for revisions being considered as part of the DSM-V. Specifically, incorporating CU traits into the diagnostic criteria for Disruptive Behavior Disorders (DBD) may help to further delineate boys at risk for severe and persistent delinquency. Although currently prohibited, allowing a diagnosis of ODD when CD is present may provide unique prognostic information about boys who are at risk for future criminal behavior, social problems, and internalizing problems. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Childhood drinking and depressive symptom level predict harmful personality change

PubMed Central

Riley, Elizabeth N.; Smith, Gregory T.

2016-01-01

Personality traits in children predict numerous life outcomes. Although traits are generally stable, if there is personality change in youth, it could affect subsequent behavior in important ways. We found that the trait of urgency, the tendency to act impulsively when highly emotional, increases for some youth in early adolescence. This increase can be predicted from the behavior of young children: alcohol consumption and depressive symptom level in elementary school children (5th grade) predicted increases in urgency 18 months later. Urgency, in turn, predicted increases in a wide range of maladaptive behaviors another 30 months later, at the end of the first year of high school. The mechanism by which early drinking behavior and depressive symptoms predict personality is not yet clear and merits future research; notably, the findings are consistent with mechanisms proposed by personality change theory and urgency theory. PMID:28392979

Understanding proenvironmental intentions and behaviors: The importance of considering both the behavior setting and the type of behavior.

PubMed

Maki, Alexander; Rothman, Alexander J

2017-01-01

To better understand the consistency of people's proenvironmental intentions and behaviors, we set out to examine two sets of research questions. First, do people perform (1) different types of proenvironmental behaviors consistently, and (2) the same proenvironmental behavior consistently across settings? Second, are there consistent predictors of proenvironmental behavioral intentions across behavior and setting type? Participants reported four recycling and conservation behaviors across three settings, revealing significant variability in rates of behaviors across settings. Prior behavior, attitudes toward the behavior, and importance of the behaviour consistently predicted proenvironmental intentions. However, perceived behavioral control tended to predict intentions to perform proenvironmental behavior outside the home. Future research aimed at understanding and influencing different proenvironmental behaviors should carefully consider how settings affect intentions and behavior.

Predicting sun protection behaviors using protection motivation variables.

PubMed

Ch'ng, Joanne W M; Glendon, A Ian

2014-04-01

Protection motivation theory components were used to predict sun protection behaviors (SPBs) using four outcome measures: typical reported behaviors, previous reported behaviors, current sunscreen use as determined by interview, and current observed behaviors (clothing worn) to control for common method bias. Sampled from two SE Queensland public beaches during summer, 199 participants aged 18-29 years completed a questionnaire measuring perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, response efficacy, response costs, and protection motivation (PM). Personal perceived risk (similar to threat appraisal) and response likelihood (similar to coping appraisal) were derived from their respective PM components. Protection motivation predicted all four SPB criterion variables. Personal perceived risk and response likelihood predicted protection motivation. Protection motivation completely mediated the effect of response likelihood on all four criterion variables. Alternative models are considered. Strengths and limitations of the study are outlined and suggestions made for future research.

Consideration of future safety consequences: a new predictor of employee safety.

PubMed

Probst, Tahira M; Graso, Maja; Estrada, Armando X; Greer, Sarah

2013-06-01

Compliance with safety behaviors is often associated with longer term benefits, but may require some short-term sacrifices. This study examines the extent to which consideration of future safety consequences (CFSC) predicts employee safety outcomes. Two field studies were conducted to evaluate the reliability and validity of the newly developed Consideration of Future Safety Consequences (CFSC) scale. Surveys containing the CFSC scale and other measures of safety attitudes, behaviors, and outcomes were administered during working hours to a sample of 128 pulp and paper mill employees; after revising the CFSC scale based on these initial results, follow-up survey data were collected in a second sample of 212 copper miners. In Study I, CFSC was predictive of employee safety knowledge and motivation, compliance, safety citizenship behaviors, accident reporting attitudes and behaviors, and workplace injuries - even after accounting for conscientiousness and demographic variables. Moreover, the effects of CFSC on the variables generally appear to be direct, as opposed to mediated by safety knowledge or motivation. These findings were largely replicated in Study II. CFSC appears to be an important personality construct that may predict those individuals who are more likely to comply with safety rules and have more positive safety outcomes. Future research should examine the longitudinal stability of CFSC to determine the extent to which this construct is a stable trait, rather than a safety attitude amenable to change over time or following an intervention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motivational Antecedents of Preventive Proactivity in Late Life: Linking Future Orientation and Exercise1

PubMed Central

Kahana, Eva; Kahana, Boaz; Zhang, Jianping

2007-01-01

Future orientation is considered as a motivational antecedent of late-life proactivity. In a panel study of 453 old-old adults, we linked future orientation to exercise, a key component of late-life proactivity. Findings based on hierarchical linear modeling reveal that future orientation at baseline predicts changes in exercise during the subsequent four years. Whereas exercise behavior generally declined over time, future orientation and female gender were associated with smaller decline. These results suggest that future-oriented thinking has a lasting impact on health promotion behavior. Future orientation thus represents a dispositional antecedent of preventive proactivity as proposed in our successful aging model. PMID:18080009

Predicting Violent Behavior: What Can Neuroscience Add?

PubMed

Poldrack, Russell A; Monahan, John; Imrey, Peter B; Reyna, Valerie; Raichle, Marcus E; Faigman, David; Buckholtz, Joshua W

2018-02-01

The ability to accurately predict violence and other forms of serious antisocial behavior would provide important societal benefits, and there is substantial enthusiasm for the potential predictive accuracy of neuroimaging techniques. Here, we review the current status of violence prediction using actuarial and clinical methods, and assess the current state of neuroprediction. We then outline several questions that need to be addressed by future studies of neuroprediction if neuroimaging and other neuroscientific markers are to be successfully translated into public policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of smoking lapse in a human laboratory paradigm.

PubMed

Roche, Daniel J O; Bujarski, Spencer; Moallem, Nathasha R; Guzman, Iris; Shapiro, Jenessa R; Ray, Lara A

2014-07-01

During a smoking quit attempt, a single smoking lapse is highly predictive of future relapse. While several risk factors for a smoking lapse have been identified during clinical trials, a laboratory model of lapse was until recently unavailable and, therefore, it is unclear whether these characteristics also convey risk for lapse in a laboratory environment. The primary study goal was to examine whether real-world risk factors of lapse are also predictive of smoking behavior in a laboratory model of smoking lapse. After overnight abstinence, 77 smokers completed the McKee smoking lapse task, in which they were presented with the choice of smoking or delaying in exchange for monetary reinforcement. Primary outcome measures were the latency to initiate smoking behavior and the number of cigarettes smoked during the lapse. Several baseline measures of smoking behavior, mood, and individual traits were examined as predictive factors. Craving to relieve the discomfort of withdrawal, withdrawal severity, and tension level were negatively predictive of latency to smoke. In contrast, average number of cigarettes smoked per day, withdrawal severity, level of nicotine dependence, craving for the positive effects of smoking, and craving to relieve the discomfort of withdrawal were positively predictive of number of cigarettes smoked. The results suggest that real-world risk factors for smoking lapse are also predictive of smoking behavior in a laboratory model of lapse. Future studies using the McKee lapse task should account for between subject differences in the unique factors that independently predict each outcome measure.

Longitudinal Examination of Adaptive Behavior in Autism Spectrum Disorders: Influence of Executive Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pugliese, Cara E.; Anthony, Laura Gutermuth; Strang, John F.; Dudley, Katerina; Wallace, Gregory L.; Naiman, Daniel Q.; Kenworthy, Lauren

2016-01-01

This study characterizes longitudinal change in adaptive behavior in 64 children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) without intellectual disability evaluated on multiple occasions, and examines whether prior estimate of executive function (EF) problems predicts future adaptive behavior scores. Compared to standardized estimates…

Future orientation in the self-system: possible selves, self-regulation, and behavior.

PubMed

Hoyle, Rick H; Sherrill, Michelle R

2006-12-01

Possible selves are representations of the self in the future. Early theoretical accounts of the construct suggested that possible selves directly influence motivation and behavior. We propose an alternative view of possible selves as a component in self-regulatory processes through which motivation and behavior are influenced. We demonstrate the advantages of this conceptualization in two studies that test predictions generated from theoretical models of self-regulation in which the possible selves construct could be embedded. In one study, we show how viewing possible selves as a source of behavioral standards in a control-process model of self-regulation yields support for a set of predictions about the influence of possible selves on current behavior. In the other study, we examine possible selves in the context of an interpersonal model of self-regulation, showing strong evidence of concern for relational value in freely generated hoped-for and feared selves. These findings suggest that the role of possible selves in motivation and behavior can be profitably studied in models that fully specify the process of self-regulation and that those models can be enriched by a consideration of future-oriented self-representations. We offer additional recommendations for strengthening research on possible selves and self-regulation.

IMF Prediction with Cosmic Rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieber, J. W.; Evenson, P. A.; Kuwabara, T.; Pei, C.

2013-12-01

Cosmic rays impacting Earth have passed through and interacted with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) surrounding Earth, and in some sense they carry information on the three-dimensional structure of that field. This work uses neutron monitor data in an effort to extract that information and use it to predict the future behavior of the IMF, especially the north-south component (Bz) which is so crucial in determining geomagnetic activity. We consider 161 events from a published list of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and compare hourly averages of the predicted field with the actual field measured later. We find that the percentage of events with 'good' predictions of Bz (in the sense of having a positive correlation between the prediction and the subsequent measurement) varies from about 85% for predictions 1 hour into the future to about 60% for predictions 4 hours into the future. We present several ideas for how the method might be improved in future implementations. Supported by NASA grant NNX08AQ01G and NSF grant ANT-0739620.

Early concern and disregard for others as predictors of antisocial behavior

PubMed Central

Rhee, Soo Hyun; Friedman, Naomi P.; Boeldt, Debra L.; Corley, Robin P.; Hewitt, John. K.; Knafo, Ariel; Lahey, Benjamin B.; Robinson, JoAnn; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Young, Susan E.; Zahn-Waxler, Carolyn

2012-01-01

Background Prediction of antisocial behavior is important given its adverse impact on both the individuals engaging in antisocial behavior and society. Additional research identifying early predictors of future antisocial behavior, or antisocial propensity, is needed. The present study tested the hypothesis that both concern for others and active disregard for others in distress in toddlers and young children predict antisocial behavior during middle childhood and adolescence. Methods A representative sample of same-sex twins (N = 956) recruited in Colorado was examined. Mother-rated and researcher-observed concern and disregard for others assessed at age 14 to 36 months were examined as predictors of parent- (age 4 to 12), teacher- (age 7 to 12), and self-reported (age 17) antisocial behavior. Results Observed disregard for others predicted antisocial behavior assessed by three different informants (parents, teachers, and self), including antisocial behavior assessed 14 years later. It also predicted a higher-order antisocial behavior factor (β = .58, p < .01) after controlling for observed concern for others. Mother-rated disregard for others predicted parent-reported antisocial behavior. Contrary to predictions, neither mother-rated nor observed concern for others inversely predicted antisocial behavior. Results of twin analyses suggested that the covariation between observed disregard for others and antisocial behavior was due to shared environmental influences. Conclusions Disregard for others in toddlerhood/early childhood is a strong predictor of antisocial behavior in middle childhood and adolescence. The results suggest the potential need for early assessment of disregard for others and the development of potential interventions. PMID:23320806

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search.

PubMed

Goel, Sharad; Hofman, Jake M; Lahaie, Sébastien; Pennock, David M; Watts, Duncan J

2010-10-12

Recent work has demonstrated that Web search volume can "predict the present," meaning that it can be used to accurately track outcomes such as unemployment levels, auto and home sales, and disease prevalence in near real time. Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance. Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes. We also find that search counts generally boost the performance of baseline models fit on other publicly available data, where the boost varies from modest to dramatic, depending on the application in question. Finally, we reexamine previous work on tracking flu trends and show that, perhaps surprisingly, the utility of search data relative to a simple autoregressive model is modest. We conclude that in the absence of other data sources, or where small improvements in predictive performance are material, search queries provide a useful guide to the near future.

Predicting consumer behavior with Web search

PubMed Central

Goel, Sharad; Hofman, Jake M.; Lahaie, Sébastien; Pennock, David M.; Watts, Duncan J.

2010-01-01

Recent work has demonstrated that Web search volume can “predict the present,” meaning that it can be used to accurately track outcomes such as unemployment levels, auto and home sales, and disease prevalence in near real time. Here we show that what consumers are searching for online can also predict their collective future behavior days or even weeks in advance. Specifically we use search query volume to forecast the opening weekend box-office revenue for feature films, first-month sales of video games, and the rank of songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, finding in all cases that search counts are highly predictive of future outcomes. We also find that search counts generally boost the performance of baseline models fit on other publicly available data, where the boost varies from modest to dramatic, depending on the application in question. Finally, we reexamine previous work on tracking flu trends and show that, perhaps surprisingly, the utility of search data relative to a simple autoregressive model is modest. We conclude that in the absence of other data sources, or where small improvements in predictive performance are material, search queries provide a useful guide to the near future. PMID:20876140

Modification of the Feline-Ality™ Assessment and the Ability to Predict Adopted Cats’ Behaviors in Their New Homes

PubMed Central

Weiss, Emily; Gramann, Shannon; Drain, Natasha; Dolan, Emily; Slater, Margaret

2015-01-01

Simple Summary While millions of cats enter animal shelters every year, only 11.5% of pet cats are obtained from a shelter in the United States. Previous research has indicated that unrealistic expectations set by adopters can increase the chances of an adopted cat returning to the shelter. The ASPCA®’s Meet Your Match® Feline-ality™ adoption program was designed to provide adopters with accurate information about an adult cat’s future behavior in the home. This research explored the ability of the modified Feline-ality™ assessment when done one day after the cat entered the shelter. Our modified version was predictive of feline behavior post adoption. Abstract It is estimated that 2.5 million cats enter animal shelters in the United States every year and as few as 20% leave the shelter alive. Of those adopted, the greatest risk to post-adoption human animal bond is unrealistic expectations set by the adopter. The ASPCA®’s Meet Your Match® Feline-ality™ adoption program was developed to provide adopters with an accurate assessment of an adult cat’s future behavior in the home. However, the original Feline-ality™ required a three-day hold time to collect cat behaviors on a data card, which was challenging for some shelters. This research involved creating a survey to determine in-home feline behavior post adoption and explored the predictive ability of the in-shelter assessment without the data card. Our results show that the original Feline-ality™ assessment and our modified version were predictive of feline behavior post adoption. Our modified version also decreased hold time for cats to one day. Shelters interested in increasing cat adoptions, decreasing length of stay and improving the adoption experience can now implement the modified version for future feline adoption success. PMID:26479138

Decisions among the Undecided: Implicit Attitudes Predict Future Voting Behavior of Undecided Voters

PubMed Central

Lundberg, Kristjen B.; Payne, B. Keith

2014-01-01

Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters. PMID:24489666

Predicting future learning from baseline network architecture.

PubMed

Mattar, Marcelo G; Wymbs, Nicholas F; Bock, Andrew S; Aguirre, Geoffrey K; Grafton, Scott T; Bassett, Danielle S

2018-05-15

Human behavior and cognition result from a complex pattern of interactions between brain regions. The flexible reconfiguration of these patterns enables behavioral adaptation, such as the acquisition of a new motor skill. Yet, the degree to which these reconfigurations depend on the brain's baseline sensorimotor integration is far from understood. Here, we asked whether spontaneous fluctuations in sensorimotor networks at baseline were predictive of individual differences in future learning. We analyzed functional MRI data from 19 participants prior to six weeks of training on a new motor skill. We found that visual-motor connectivity was inversely related to learning rate: sensorimotor autonomy at baseline corresponded to faster learning in the future. Using three additional scans, we found that visual-motor connectivity at baseline is a relatively stable individual trait. These results suggest that individual differences in motor skill learning can be predicted from sensorimotor autonomy at baseline prior to task execution. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Behavioral Economics of Young Adult Substance Abuse

PubMed Central

Murphy, James G.; Dennhardt, Ashley A.

2016-01-01

Alcohol and drug use peaks during young adulthood and can interfere with critical developmental tasks and set the stage for chronic substance misuse and associated social, educational, and health-related outcomes. There is a need for novel, theory-based approaches to guide substance abuse prevention efforts during this critical developmental period. This paper discusses the particular relevance of behavioral economic theory to young adult alcohol and drug misuse, and reviews available literature on prevention and intervention strategies that are consistent with behavioral economic theory. Behavioral economic theory predicts that decisions to use drugs and alcohol are related to the relative availability and price of both alcohol and substance-free alternative activities, and the extent to which reinforcement from delayed substance-free outcomes is devalued relative to the immediate reinforcement associated with drugs. Behavioral economic measures of motivation for substance use are based on relative levels of behavioral and economic resource allocation towards drug versus alternatives, and have been shown to predict change in substance use over time. Policy and individual level prevention approaches that are consistent with behavioral economic theory are discussed, including brief interventions that increase future orientation and engagement in rewarding alternatives to substance use. Prevention approaches that increase engagement in constructive future-oriented activities among young adults (e.g., educational/vocational success) have the potential to reduce future health disparities associated with both substance abuse and poor educational/vocational outcomes. PMID:27151545

The role of narcissism in health-risk and health-protective behaviors.

PubMed

Hill, Erin M

2016-09-01

This study examined the role of narcissism in health-risk and health-protective behaviors in a sample of 365 undergraduate students. Regression analyses were used to test the influence of narcissism on health behaviors. Narcissism was positively predictive of alcohol use, marijuana use, and risky driving behaviors, and it was associated with an increased likelihood of consistently having a healthy eating pattern. Narcissism was also positively predictive of physical activity. Results are discussed with reference to the potential short-term and long-term health implications and the need for future research on the factors involved in the relationship between narcissism and health behaviors. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Impact of Asking Intention or Self-Prediction Questions on Subsequent Behavior

PubMed Central

Wood, Chantelle; Conner, Mark; Miles, Eleanor; Sandberg, Tracy; Taylor, Natalie; Godin, Gaston; Sheeran, Paschal

2015-01-01

The current meta-analysis estimated the magnitude of the impact of asking intention and self-prediction questions on rates of subsequent behavior, and examined mediators and moderators of this question–behavior effect (QBE). Random-effects meta-analysis on 116 published tests of the effect indicated that intention/prediction questions have a small positive effect on behavior (d+ = 0.24). Little support was observed for attitude accessibility, cognitive dissonance, behavioral simulation, or processing fluency explanations of the QBE. Multivariate analyses indicated significant effects of social desirability of behavior/behavior domain (larger effects for more desirable and less risky behaviors), difficulty of behavior (larger effects for easy-to-perform behaviors), and sample type (larger effects among student samples). Although this review controls for co-occurrence of moderators in multivariate analyses, future primary research should systematically vary moderators in fully factorial designs. Further primary research is also needed to unravel the mechanisms underlying different variants of the QBE. PMID:26162771

Can the Theory of Planned Behavior Predict Dietary Intention and Future Dieting in an Ethnically Diverse Sample of Overweight and Obese Veterans Attending Medical Clinics?

PubMed Central

Lash, Denise N.; Smith, Jane Ellen; Rinehart, Jenny K.

2016-01-01

Obesity has become a world-wide epidemic; in the United States (U.S.) approximately two-thirds of adults are classified as overweight or obese. Military veterans’ numbers are even higher, with 77% of retired or discharged U.S. veterans falling in these weight categories. One of the most common methods of changing one’s weight is through dieting, yet little is known regarding the factors that facilitate successful dieting behavior. The current investigation tested the Theory of Planned Behavior’s (TPB) ability to predict dietary intention and future dieting in a sample of 84 overweight and obese patients attending medical clinics at a Veterans Affairs Hospital in the southwestern part of the U.S. Participants primarily were male (92%) and ethnic/racial minorities (58%). Perceived need and anticipated regret were added to the standard TPB model. While the TPB predicted dietary intention, it did not significantly account for improved dietary behaviors. Anticipated regret significantly enhanced the basic TPB’s ability to predict intention to diet, while perceived need did not. These findings highlight the difficulty in predicting sustained change in a complex behavior such as dieting to lose weight. The need for more work with older, overweight/obese medical patients attending veterans’ facilities is stressed, as is the need for such work with male patients and ethnic minorities in particular. PMID:26792774

Comparing the utility of the theory of planned behavior between boys and girls for predicting snack food consumption: implications for practice.

PubMed

Branscum, Paul; Sharma, Manoj

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use the theory of planned behavior to explain two types of snack food consumption among boys and girls (girls n = 98; boys n = 69), which may have implications for future theory-based health promotion interventions. Between genders, there was a significant difference for calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks (p = .002), but no difference for fruit and vegetable snacks. Using stepwise multiple regression, attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms accounted for a large amount of the variance of intentions (girls = 43.3%; boys = 55.9%); however, for girls, subjective norms accounted for the most variance, whereas for boys, attitudes accounted for the most variance. Calories from calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks and fruit and vegetable snacks were also predicted by intentions. For boys, intentions predicted 6.4% of the variance for fruit and vegetable snacks (p = .03) but was not significant for calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks, whereas for girls, intentions predicted 6.0% of the variance for fruit and vegetable snacks (p = .007), and 7.2% of the variance for calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks (p = .004). Results suggest that the theory of planned behavior is a useful framework for predicting snack foods among children; however, there are important differences between genders that should be considered in future health promotion interventions.

Self-Esteem and Future Orientation Predict Adolescents' Risk Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackman, Danielle M.; MacPhee, David

2017-01-01

This study's purpose was to examine the relations among future orientation, self-esteem, and later adolescent risk behaviors, and to compare two mediational models involving self-esteem versus future orientation as mediators. An ethnically diverse sample of 12- to 14-year-olds (N = 862, 54% female, 53% ethnic minority) was assessed longitudinally.…

Modeling behavioral thermoregulation in a climate change sentinel.

PubMed

Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Mathewson, Paul D; Jones, Gavin M; Kearney, Michael R; Porter, Warren P

2015-12-01

When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north-facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general, mechanistic predictions and empirical observations were congruent. This research is unique in providing both an empirical and mechanistic description of the effects of temperature on a mammalian sentinel of climate change, the American pika. Our results suggest that previously underinvestigated characteristics, specifically fur properties and body size, may play critical roles in pika populations' response to climate change. We also demonstrate the potential importance of considering behavioral thermoregulation and microclimate variability when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Predictive Validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale for Short-Term Suicidal Behavior: A Danish Study of Adolescents at a High Risk of Suicide.

PubMed

Conway, Paul Maurice; Erlangsen, Annette; Teasdale, Thomas William; Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul

2017-07-03

Using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS), we examined the predictive and incremental predictive validity of past-month suicidal behavior and ideation for short-term suicidal behavior among adolescents at high risk of suicide. The study was conducted in 2014 on a sample of 85 adolescents (90.6% females) who participated at follow-up (85.9%) out of the 99 (49.7%) baseline respondents. All adolescents were recruited from a specialized suicide-prevention clinic in Denmark. Through multivariate logistic regression analyses, we examined whether baseline suicidal behavior predicted subsequent suicidal behavior (actual attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, including preparatory acts, aborted, interrupted and actual attempts; mean follow-up of 80.8 days, SD = 52.4). Furthermore, we examined whether suicidal ideation severity and intensity incrementally predicted suicidal behavior at follow-up over and above suicidal behavior at baseline. Actual suicide attempts at baseline strongly predicted suicide attempts at follow-up. Baseline suicidal ideation severity and intensity did not significantly predict future actual attempts over and above baseline attempts. The suicidal ideation intensity items deterrents and duration were significant predictors of subsequent actual attempts after adjustment for baseline suicide attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, respectively. Suicidal ideation severity and intensity, and the intensity items frequency, duration and deterrents, all significantly predicted any type of suicidal behavior at follow-up, also after adjusting for baseline suicidal behavior. The present study points to an incremental predictive validity of the C-SSRS suicidal ideation scales for short-term suicidal behavior of any type among high-risk adolescents.

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

PubMed

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Identifying Future Drinkers: Behavioral Analysis of Monkeys Initiating Drinking to Intoxication is Predictive of Future Drinking Classification.

PubMed

Baker, Erich J; Walter, Nicole A R; Salo, Alex; Rivas Perea, Pablo; Moore, Sharon; Gonzales, Steven; Grant, Kathleen A

2017-03-01

The Monkey Alcohol Tissue Research Resource (MATRR) is a repository and analytics platform for detailed data derived from well-documented nonhuman primate (NHP) alcohol self-administration studies. This macaque model has demonstrated categorical drinking norms reflective of human drinking populations, resulting in consumption pattern classifications of very heavy drinking (VHD), heavy drinking (HD), binge drinking (BD), and low drinking (LD) individuals. Here, we expand on previous findings that suggest ethanol drinking patterns during initial drinking to intoxication can reliably predict future drinking category assignment. The classification strategy uses a machine-learning approach to examine an extensive set of daily drinking attributes during 90 sessions of induction across 7 cohorts of 5 to 8 monkeys for a total of 50 animals. A Random Forest classifier is employed to accurately predict categorical drinking after 12 months of self-administration. Predictive outcome accuracy is approximately 78% when classes are aggregated into 2 groups, "LD and BD" and "HD and VHD." A subsequent 2-step classification model distinguishes individual LD and BD categories with 90% accuracy and between HD and VHD categories with 95% accuracy. Average 4-category classification accuracy is 74%, and provides putative distinguishing behavioral characteristics between groupings. We demonstrate that data derived from the induction phase of this ethanol self-administration protocol have significant predictive power for future ethanol consumption patterns. Importantly, numerous predictive factors are longitudinal, measuring the change of drinking patterns through 3 stages of induction. Factors during induction that predict future heavy drinkers include being younger at the time of first intoxication and developing a shorter latency to first ethanol drink. Overall, this analysis identifies predictive characteristics in future very heavy drinkers that optimize intoxication, such as having increasingly fewer bouts with more drinks. This analysis also identifies characteristic avoidance of intoxicating topographies in future low drinkers, such as increasing number of bouts and waiting longer before the first ethanol drink. Copyright © 2017 The Authors Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Research Society on Alcoholism.

Early concern and disregard for others as predictors of antisocial behavior.

PubMed

Rhee, Soo Hyun; Friedman, Naomi P; Boeldt, Debra L; Corley, Robin P; Hewitt, John K; Knafo, Ariel; Lahey, Benjamin B; Robinson, JoAnn; Van Hulle, Carol A; Waldman, Irwin D; Young, Susan E; Zahn-Waxler, Carolyn

2013-02-01

Prediction of antisocial behavior is important, given its adverse impact on both the individuals engaging in antisocial behavior and society. Additional research identifying early predictors of future antisocial behavior, or antisocial propensity, is needed. The present study tested the hypothesis that both concern for others and active disregard for others in distress in toddlers and young children predict antisocial behavior during middle childhood and adolescence. A representative sample of same-sex twins (N=956) recruited in Colorado was examined. Mother-rated and researcher-observed concern and disregard for others assessed at age 14-36 months were examined as predictors of parent- (age 4-12), teacher- (age 7-12), and self-reported (age 17) antisocial behavior.   Observed disregard for others predicted antisocial behavior assessed by three different informants (parents, teachers, and self), including antisocial behavior assessed 14 years later. It also predicted a higher order antisocial behavior factor (β=.58, p<.01) after controlling for observed concern for others. Mother-rated disregard for others predicted parent-reported antisocial behavior. Contrary to predictions, neither mother-rated nor observed concern for others inversely predicted antisocial behavior. RESULTS of twin analyses suggested that the covariation between observed disregard for others and antisocial behavior was due to shared environmental influences. Disregard for others in toddlerhood/early childhood is a strong predictor of antisocial behavior in middle childhood and adolescence. The results suggest the potential need for early assessment of disregard for others and the development of potential interventions. © 2012 The Author. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2012 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Information theory of adaptation in neurons, behavior, and mood.

PubMed

Sharpee, Tatyana O; Calhoun, Adam J; Chalasani, Sreekanth H

2014-04-01

The ability to make accurate predictions of future stimuli and consequences of one's actions are crucial for the survival and appropriate decision-making. These predictions are constantly being made at different levels of the nervous system. This is evidenced by adaptation to stimulus parameters in sensory coding, and in learning of an up-to-date model of the environment at the behavioral level. This review will discuss recent findings that actions of neurons and animals are selected based on detailed stimulus history in such a way as to maximize information for achieving the task at hand. Information maximization dictates not only how sensory coding should adapt to various statistical aspects of stimuli, but also that reward function should adapt to match the predictive information from past to future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of future anabolic androgenic steroid use.

PubMed

Wichstrøm, Lars

2006-09-01

To prospectively study the stability of anabolic androgenic steroid (AAS) use and predictors of AAS use, and to investigate whether AAS use alters the risk of later emotional and behavioral problems. Survey of a national sample of Norwegian high school students (age 15-19) in 1994 followed up in 1999 (N = 2924). Measures of frequent alcohol intoxication (50+ times per 12 months), cannabis use (12 months), hard drug use (12 months), being offered cannabis, eating problems, conduct problems, sexual debut before age 15, BMI, involvement in power sports, perceived physical appearance, and satisfaction with body parts were obtained. Life-time prevalence of AAS use were 1.9 and 0.8% in the follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that future AAS use was predicted by young age, male gender, previous AAS use, involvement in power sports, and frequent alcohol intoxication. AAS use did not predict future emotional or behavioral problems other than reducing the risk of future frequent alcohol intoxication. Frequent alcohol intoxication and involvement in power sports appear to predict future AAS use. At the population level there was little stability in individual AAS use from adolescence to early adulthood. No detrimental effects of AAS use could be detected in this study, but low statistical power limits this conclusion.

Probability of criminal acts of violence: a test of jury predictive accuracy.

PubMed

Reidy, Thomas J; Sorensen, Jon R; Cunningham, Mark D

2013-01-01

The ability of capital juries to accurately predict future prison violence at the sentencing phase of aggravated murder trials was examined through retrospective review of the disciplinary records of 115 male inmates sentenced to either life (n = 65) or death (n = 50) in Oregon from 1985 through 2008, with a mean post-conviction time at risk of 15.3 years. Violent prison behavior was completely unrelated to predictions made by capital jurors, with bidirectional accuracy simply reflecting the base rate of assaultive misconduct in the group. Rejection of the special issue predicting future violence enjoyed 90% accuracy. Conversely, predictions that future violence was probable had 90% error rates. More than 90% of the assaultive rule violations committed by these offenders resulted in no harm or only minor injuries. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Father Involvement and Young, Rural African American Men's Engagement in Substance Misuse and Multiple Sexual Partnerships.

PubMed

Barton, Allen W; Kogan, Steven M; Cho, Junhan; Brown, Geoffrey L

2015-12-01

This study was designed to examine the associations of biological father and social father involvement during childhood with African American young men's development and engagement in risk behaviors. With a sample of 505 young men living in the rural South of the United States, a dual mediation model was tested in which retrospective reports of involvement from biological fathers and social fathers were linked to young men's substance misuse and multiple sexual partnerships through men's relational schemas and future expectations. Results from structural equation modeling indicated that levels of involvement from biological fathers and social fathers predicted young men's relational schemas; only biological fathers' involvement predicted future expectations. In turn, future expectations predicted levels of substance misuse, and negative relational schemas predicted multiple sexual partnerships. Biological fathers' involvement evinced significant indirect associations with young men's substance misuse and multiple sexual partnerships through both schemas and expectations; social fathers' involvement exhibited an indirect association with multiple sexual partnerships through relational schemas. Findings highlight the unique influences of biological fathers and social fathers on multiple domains of African American young men's psychosocial development that subsequently render young men more or less likely to engage in risk behaviors.

Learning predictive statistics from temporal sequences: Dynamics and strategies

PubMed Central

Wang, Rui; Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Welchman, Andrew E.; Kourtzi, Zoe

2017-01-01

Human behavior is guided by our expectations about the future. Often, we make predictions by monitoring how event sequences unfold, even though such sequences may appear incomprehensible. Event structures in the natural environment typically vary in complexity, from simple repetition to complex probabilistic combinations. How do we learn these structures? Here we investigate the dynamics of structure learning by tracking human responses to temporal sequences that change in structure unbeknownst to the participants. Participants were asked to predict the upcoming item following a probabilistic sequence of symbols. Using a Markov process, we created a family of sequences, from simple frequency statistics (e.g., some symbols are more probable than others) to context-based statistics (e.g., symbol probability is contingent on preceding symbols). We demonstrate the dynamics with which individuals adapt to changes in the environment's statistics—that is, they extract the behaviorally relevant structures to make predictions about upcoming events. Further, we show that this structure learning relates to individual decision strategy; faster learning of complex structures relates to selection of the most probable outcome in a given context (maximizing) rather than matching of the exact sequence statistics. Our findings provide evidence for alternate routes to learning of behaviorally relevant statistics that facilitate our ability to predict future events in variable environments. PMID:28973111

Learning predictive statistics from temporal sequences: Dynamics and strategies.

PubMed

Wang, Rui; Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

2017-10-01

Human behavior is guided by our expectations about the future. Often, we make predictions by monitoring how event sequences unfold, even though such sequences may appear incomprehensible. Event structures in the natural environment typically vary in complexity, from simple repetition to complex probabilistic combinations. How do we learn these structures? Here we investigate the dynamics of structure learning by tracking human responses to temporal sequences that change in structure unbeknownst to the participants. Participants were asked to predict the upcoming item following a probabilistic sequence of symbols. Using a Markov process, we created a family of sequences, from simple frequency statistics (e.g., some symbols are more probable than others) to context-based statistics (e.g., symbol probability is contingent on preceding symbols). We demonstrate the dynamics with which individuals adapt to changes in the environment's statistics-that is, they extract the behaviorally relevant structures to make predictions about upcoming events. Further, we show that this structure learning relates to individual decision strategy; faster learning of complex structures relates to selection of the most probable outcome in a given context (maximizing) rather than matching of the exact sequence statistics. Our findings provide evidence for alternate routes to learning of behaviorally relevant statistics that facilitate our ability to predict future events in variable environments.

Modeling Temporal Behavior in Large Networks: A Dynamic Mixed-Membership Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rossi, R; Gallagher, B; Neville, J

Given a large time-evolving network, how can we model and characterize the temporal behaviors of individual nodes (and network states)? How can we model the behavioral transition patterns of nodes? We propose a temporal behavior model that captures the 'roles' of nodes in the graph and how they evolve over time. The proposed dynamic behavioral mixed-membership model (DBMM) is scalable, fully automatic (no user-defined parameters), non-parametric/data-driven (no specific functional form or parameterization), interpretable (identifies explainable patterns), and flexible (applicable to dynamic and streaming networks). Moreover, the interpretable behavioral roles are generalizable, computationally efficient, and natively supports attributes. We applied ourmore » model for (a) identifying patterns and trends of nodes and network states based on the temporal behavior, (b) predicting future structural changes, and (c) detecting unusual temporal behavior transitions. We use eight large real-world datasets from different time-evolving settings (dynamic and streaming). In particular, we model the evolving mixed-memberships and the corresponding behavioral transitions of Twitter, Facebook, IP-Traces, Email (University), Internet AS, Enron, Reality, and IMDB. The experiments demonstrate the scalability, flexibility, and effectiveness of our model for identifying interesting patterns, detecting unusual structural transitions, and predicting the future structural changes of the network and individual nodes.« less

Discrepancy-based and anticipated emotions in behavioral self-regulation.

PubMed

Brown, Christina M; McConnell, Allen R

2011-10-01

Discrepancies between one's current and desired states evoke negative emotions, which presumably guide self-regulation. In the current work we evaluated the function of discrepancy-based emotions in behavioral self-regulation. Contrary to classic theories of self-regulation, discrepancy-based emotions did not predict the degree to which people engaged in self-regulatory behavior. Instead, expectations about how future self-discrepancies would make one feel (i.e., anticipated emotions) predicted self-regulation. However, anticipated emotions were influenced by previous discrepancy-based emotional experiences, suggesting that the latter do not directly motivate self-regulation but rather guide expectations. These findings are consistent with the perspective that emotions do not necessarily direct immediate behavior, but rather have an indirect effect by guiding expectations, which in turn predict goal-directed action.

The behavioral economics of young adult substance abuse.

PubMed

Murphy, James G; Dennhardt, Ashley A

2016-11-01

Alcohol and drug use peaks during young adulthood and can interfere with critical developmental tasks and set the stage for chronic substance misuse and associated social, educational, and health-related outcomes. There is a need for novel, theory-based approaches to guide substance abuse prevention efforts during this critical developmental period. This paper discusses the particular relevance of behavioral economic theory to young adult alcohol and drug misuse, and reviews of available literature on prevention and intervention strategies that are consistent with behavioral economic theory. Behavioral economic theory predicts that decisions to use drugs and alcohol are related to the relative availability and price of both alcohol and substance-free alternative activities, and the extent to which reinforcement from delayed substance-free outcomes is devalued relative to the immediate reinforcement associated with drugs. Behavioral economic measures of motivation for substance use are based on relative levels of behavioral and economic resource allocation towards drug versus alternatives, and have been shown to predict change in substance use over time. Policy and individual level prevention approaches that are consistent with behavioral economic theory are discussed, including brief interventions that increase future orientation and engagement in rewarding alternatives to substance use. Prevention approaches that increase engagement in constructive future-oriented activities among young adults (e.g., educational/vocational success) have the potential to reduce future health disparities associated with both substance abuse and poor educational/vocational outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Embedding Multilevel Survival Analysis of Dyadic Social Interaction in Structural Equation Models: Hazard Rates as Both Outcomes and Predictors

PubMed Central

Snyder, James

2014-01-01

Objective Demonstrate multivariate multilevel survival analysis within a larger structural equation model. Test the 3 hypotheses that when confronted by a negative parent, child rates of angry, sad/fearful, and positive emotion will increase, decrease, and stay the same, respectively, for antisocial compared with normal children. This same pattern will predict increases in future antisocial behavior. Methods Parent–child dyads were videotaped in the fall of kindergarten in the laboratory and antisocial behavior ratings were obtained in the fall of kindergarten and third grade. Results Kindergarten antisocial predicted less child sad/fear and child positive but did not predict child anger given parent negative. Less child positive and more child neutral given parent negative predicted increases in third-grade antisocial behavior. Conclusions The model is a useful analytic tool for studying rates of social behavior. Lack of positive affect or excess neutral affect may be a new risk factor for child antisocial behavior. PMID:24133296

Predictive Coding Accelerates Word Recognition and Learning in the Early Stages of Language Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ylinen, Sari; Bosseler, Alexis; Junttila, Katja; Huotilainen, Minna

2017-01-01

The ability to predict future events in the environment and learn from them is a fundamental component of adaptive behavior across species. Here we propose that inferring predictions facilitates speech processing and word learning in the early stages of language development. Twelve- and 24-month olds' electrophysiological brain responses to heard…

FFTF-cycle 10 program and future plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohyama, Akira

1988-04-01

Brief outlines are provided of the FFTF cycle 10 program and future plans in consideration. The primary objective of the Japan-US collaboration program is to enable predictions of material behavior in MFRs to be made from data obtained in other irradiation environments. Major program goals are outlined.

Smoking, food, and alcohol cues on subsequent behavior: a qualitative systematic review.

PubMed

Veilleux, Jennifer C; Skinner, Kayla D

2015-03-01

Although craving is a frequent phenomenon in addictive behaviors, and laboratory paradigms have robustly established that presentation of cues can elicit self-reported craving responses, extant work has not established whether cue exposure influences subsequent behavior. We systematically review extant literature assessing the effects of cue exposure to smoking, food, and alcohol cues on behavioral outcomes framed by three questions: (1) Is there value in distinguishing between the effects of cue exposure on behavior from the responses to cues (e.g., self-reported craving) predicting behavior?; (2) What are the effect of cues on behavior beyond lapse, such as broadly considering both target-syntonic (e.g., do cigarette cues predict smoking-related behaviors) and target-dystonic behaviors (e.g., do cigarette cues predict other outcomes besides smoking)?; (3) What are the lessons to be learned from examining cue exposure studies across smoking, food and alcohol domains? Evidence generally indicates an effect of cue exposure on both target-syntonic and target-dystonic behavior, and that self-report cue-reactivity predicts immediate target-syntonic outcomes. Effects of smoking, food and alcohol cues on behavior are compared to elucidate generalizations about the effects of cue exposure as well as methodological differences that may serve the study of craving in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive Coding Strategies for Invariant Object Recognition and Volitional Motion Control in Neuromorphic Agents

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-02

human behavior. In this project, we hypothesized that visual memory of past motion trajectories may be used for selecting future behavior. In other...34Decoding sequence of actions using fMRI ", Society for Neuroscience Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, USA, Nov 9-13 2013 (only abstract) 3. Hansol Choi, Dae...Shik Kim, "Planning as inference in a Hierarchical Predictive Memory ", Proceedings of International Conference on Neural Information Processing

Brain indices of disagreement with one’s social values predict EU referendum voting behavior

PubMed Central

Sirota, Miroslav; Materassi, Maurizio; Zaninotto, Francesca; Terry, Philip

2017-01-01

Abstract Pre-electoral surveys typically attempt, and sometimes fail, to predict voting behavior on the basis of explicit measures of agreement or disagreement with a candidate or political position. Here, we assessed whether a specific brain signature of disagreement with one’s social values, the event-related potential component N400, could be predictive of voting behavior. We examined this possibility in the context of the EU referendum in the UK. In the 5 weeks preceding the referendum, we recorded the N400 while participants with different vote intentions expressed their agreement or disagreement with pro- and against-EU statements. We showed that the N400 responded to statements incongruent with one’s view regarding the EU. Crucially, this effect predicted actual voting behavior in decided as well as undecided voters. The N400 was a better predictor of voting choice than an explicit index of preference based on the behavioral responses. Our findings demonstrate that well-defined patterns of brain activity can forecast future voting behavior. PMID:28981799

The Relative Importance of Psychopathy-Related Traits in Predicting Impersonal Sex and Hostile Masculinity

PubMed Central

LeBreton, James M.; Baysinger, Michael; Abbey, Antonia; Jacques-Tiura, Angela J.

2013-01-01

This paper reports the relative contributions of several facets of subclinical psychopathy (i.e., callous affect, erratic lifestyle, interpersonal manipulation), subclinical narcissism (i.e., entitlement, exploitation), and trait aggression (i.e., anger) to the prediction of four enduring attitudes towards women and sexual assault (i.e., hostility towards women, negative attitudes regarding women, sexual dominance, impersonal sex) and a behavioral indicator of an impersonal sexual behavior (i.e., number of one-night stands). Survey data were collected from 470 single men living in the Detroit Metropolitan area. The importance of personality traits varied as a function of the outcome with anger most predictive of hostility toward women; erratic lifestyle most predictive of impersonal sexual attitudes and behavior, and entitlement most predictive of sexual dominance and negative attitudes toward women. These outcome-specific findings are interpreted and directions for future research are discussed. PMID:26082565

The Theory of Planned Behavior as a Predictor of HIV Testing Intention.

PubMed

Ayodele, Olabode

2017-03-01

This investigation tests the theory of planned behavior (TPB) as a predictor of HIV testing intention among Nigerian university undergraduate students. A cross-sectional study of 392 students was conducted using a self-administered structured questionnaire that measured socio-demographics, perceived risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and TPB constructs. Analysis was based on 273 students who had never been tested for HIV. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis assessed the applicability of the TPB in predicting HIV testing intention and additional predictive value of perceived risk of HIV infection. The prediction model containing TPB constructs explained 35% of the variance in HIV testing intention, with attitude and perceived behavioral control making significant and unique contributions to intention. Perceived risk of HIV infection contributed marginally (2%) but significantly to the final prediction model. Findings supported the TPB in predicting HIV testing intention. Although future studies must determine the generalizability of these results, the findings highlight the importance of perceived behavioral control, attitude, and perceived risk of HIV infection in the prediction of HIV testing intention among students who have not previously tested for HIV.

Developing a theoretical foundation to change road user behavior and improve traffic safety: Driving under the influence of cannabis (DUIC).

PubMed

Ward, Nicholas J; Schell, William; Kelley-Baker, Tara; Otto, Jay; Finley, Kari

2018-05-19

This study explored a theoretical model to assess the influence of culture on willingness and intention to drive under the influence of cannabis (DUIC). This model is expected to guide the design of strategies to change future DUIC behavior in road users. This study used a survey methodology to obtain a nationally representative sample (n = 941) from the AmeriSpeak Panel. Survey items were designed to measure aspects of a proposed definition of traffic safety culture and a predictive model of its relationship to DUIC. Although the percentage of reported past DUIC behaviors was relatively low (8.5%), this behavior is still a significant public health issue-especially for younger drivers (18-29 years), who reported more DUIC than expected. Findings suggest that specific cultural components (attitudes, norms) reliably predict past DUIC behavior, general DUIC willingness, and future DUIC intention. Most DUIC behavior appears to be deliberate, related significantly to willingness and intention. Intention and willingness both appear to fully moderate the relationship between traffic safety culture and DUIC behavior. This study explored a theoretical model to understand road user behavior involving drug (cannabis)-impaired driving as a significant risk factor for traffic safety. By understanding the cultural factors that increase DUIC behavior, we can create strategies to transform this culture and sustain safer road user behavior.

Assessment of Suicide Ideation and Parasuicide: Hopelessness and Social Desirability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linehan, Marsha M.; Nielsen, Stevan L.

1981-01-01

Shoppers completed the Beck Hopelessness Scale, the Edwards Social Desirability Inventory, and a survey of past suicidal behavior. Results indicated hopelessness and social desirability were reliably related to reports of past suicidal behavior, to frequency of current suicidal ideation, and to subjects' predictions of future suicide potential.…

Monitoring with Trackers Based on Semi-Quantitative Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuipers, Benjamin

1997-01-01

In three years of NASA-sponsored research preceding this project, we successfully developed a technology for: (1) building qualitative and semi-quantitative models from libraries of model-fragments, (2) simulating these models to predict future behaviors with the guarantee that all possible behaviors are covered, (3) assimilating observations into behaviors, shrinking uncertainty so that incorrect models are eventually refuted and correct models make stronger predictions for the future. In our object-oriented framework, a tracker is an object which embodies the hypothesis that the available observation stream is consistent with a particular behavior of a particular model. The tracker maintains its own status (consistent, superceded, or refuted), and answers questions about its explanation for past observations and its predictions for the future. In the MIMIC approach to monitoring of continuous systems, a number of trackers are active in parallel, representing alternate hypotheses about the behavior of a system. This approach is motivated by the need to avoid 'system accidents' [Perrow, 1985] due to operator fixation on a single hypothesis, as for example at Three Mile Island. As we began to address these issues, we focused on three major research directions that we planned to pursue over a three-year project: (1) tractable qualitative simulation, (2) semiquantitative inference, and (3) tracking set management. Unfortunately, funding limitations made it impossible to continue past year one. Nonetheless, we made major progress in the first two of these areas. Progress in the third area as slower because the graduate student working on that aspect of the project decided to leave school and take a job in industry. I enclosed a set of abstract of selected papers on the work describe below. Several papers that draw on the research supported during this period appeared in print after the grant period ended.

Which forms of child/adolescent externalizing behaviors account for late adolescent risky sexual behavior and substance use?

PubMed

Timmermans, Maartje; van Lier, Pol A C; Koot, Hans M

2008-04-01

Health risk behaviors like substance use (alcohol, tobacco, soft/hard drugs) and risky sexual behavior become more prevalent in adolescence. Children with behavior problems are thought to be prone to engage in health risk behaviors later in life. It is, however, unclear which problems within the externalizing spectrum account for these outcomes. Three hundred and nine children were followed from age 4/5 years to 18 years (14-year follow-up). Level and course of parent-rated opposition, physical aggression, status violations and property violations were used to predict adolescent-reported substance use and risky sexual behavior at age 18 years. Both level and change in physical aggression were unique predictors of all forms of adolescent health risk behavior. Levels of status violations predicted smoking and soft drug use only, while change in property violations predicted each of the health risk behaviors. The links between opposition and health risk behaviors were accounted for by co-occurring problem behaviors. Of externalizing problems, physical aggression is the best predictor of adolescent substance use and risky sexual behavior from childhood onwards. Possible explanations and implications of these findings, and future research directions are discussed.

Aggression and social withdrawal as viewed by children's peers: conceptual issues in assessment and implications for intervention.

PubMed Central

Younger, A J; Schneider, B H; Daniels, T

1991-01-01

Children's peer assessments of aggressive and withdrawn behavior are fundamentally related to developmental changes in their understanding of others. This article synthesizes research relevant to the thesis that peer assessments are dependent on children's ability both to recall the previous behavior of their peers and to predict their likely future behavior. Social schema theory, borrowed from adult social psychology, is highly relevant to such recall and prediction. Age differences, affective biases, and gender roles may color children's assessments of their peers' social behavior. Such influences should be taken into account when conceptualizing interventions aimed at enhancing children's peer status, and in measuring the success of these interventions. PMID:1958647

A Longitudinal Examination of Parenting Behaviors and Perceived Discrimination Predicting Latino Adolescents' Ethnic Identity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Umana-Taylor, Adriana J.; Guimond, Amy B.

2010-01-01

Characteristics of the familial and societal context were examined as predictors of Latino adolescents' (N = 323; 49.5% female) ethnic identity. Consistent with previous work, familial ethnic socialization significantly predicted future levels of ethnic identity exploration, resolution, and affirmation for both male adolescents and female…

Predictability and hierarchy in Drosophila behavior.

PubMed

Berman, Gordon J; Bialek, William; Shaevitz, Joshua W

2016-10-18

Even the simplest of animals exhibit behavioral sequences with complex temporal dynamics. Prominent among the proposed organizing principles for these dynamics has been the idea of a hierarchy, wherein the movements an animal makes can be understood as a set of nested subclusters. Although this type of organization holds potential advantages in terms of motion control and neural circuitry, measurements demonstrating this for an animal's entire behavioral repertoire have been limited in scope and temporal complexity. Here, we use a recently developed unsupervised technique to discover and track the occurrence of all stereotyped behaviors performed by fruit flies moving in a shallow arena. Calculating the optimally predictive representation of the fly's future behaviors, we show that fly behavior exhibits multiple time scales and is organized into a hierarchical structure that is indicative of its underlying behavioral programs and its changing internal states.

White Matter Integrity, Substance Use, and Risk Taking in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Jacobus, Joanna; Thayer, Rachel E.; Trim, Ryan S.; Bava, Sunita; Frank, Lawrence R.; Tapert, Susan F.

2012-01-01

White matter development is important for efficient communication between brain regions, higher order cognitive functioning, and complex behaviors. Adolescents have a higher propensity for engaging in risky behaviors, yet few studies have explored associations between white matter integrity and risk taking directly. Altered white matter integrity in mid-adolescence was hypothesized to predict subsequent risk taking behaviors 1.5 years later. Adolescent substance users (predominantly alcohol and marijuana, n=47) and demographically similar non-users (n=49) received diffusion tensor imaging at baseline (ages 16–19), and risk taking measures at both baseline and an 18-month follow-up (i.e., at ages 17–20). Brain regions of interest were: fornix, superior corona radiata, superior longitudinal fasciculus, and superior fronto-occipital fasciculus. In substance using youth (n=47), lower white matter integrity at baseline in the fornix and superior corona radiata predicted follow-up substance use (ΔR2 =10–12%, ps < .01), and baseline fornix integrity predicted follow-up delinquent behaviors (ΔR2 = 10%, p < .01) 1.5 years later. Poorer fronto-limbic white matter integrity was linked to a greater propensity for future risk taking behaviors among youth who initiated heavy substance use by mid-adolescence. Most notable were relationships between projection and limbic system fibers and future substance use frequency. Subcortical white matter coherence along with an imbalance between the maturation levels in cognitive control and reward systems may disadvantage the resistance to engage in risk taking behaviors during adolescence. PMID:22564204

White matter integrity, substance use, and risk taking in adolescence.

PubMed

Jacobus, Joanna; Thayer, Rachel E; Trim, Ryan S; Bava, Sunita; Frank, Lawrence R; Tapert, Susan F

2013-06-01

White matter development is important for efficient communication between brain regions, higher order cognitive functioning, and complex behaviors. Adolescents have a higher propensity for engaging in risky behaviors, yet few studies have explored associations between white matter integrity and risk taking directly. Altered white matter integrity in mid-adolescence was hypothesized to predict subsequent risk taking behaviors 1.5 years later. Adolescent substance users (predominantly alcohol and marijuana, n = 47) and demographically similar nonusers (n = 49) received diffusion tensor imaging at baseline (ages 16-19), and risk taking measures at both baseline and an 18-month follow-up (i.e., at ages 17-20). Brain regions of interest were the fornix, superior corona radiata, superior longitudinal fasciculus, and superior fronto-occipital fasciculus. In substance-using youth (n = 47), lower white matter integrity at baseline in the fornix and superior corona radiata predicted follow-up substance use (ΔR2 = 10-12%, ps < .01), and baseline fornix integrity predicted follow-up delinquent behaviors (ΔR2 = 10%, p < .01) 1.5 years later. Poorer fronto-limbic white matter integrity was linked to a greater propensity for future risk taking behaviors among youth who initiated heavy substance use by mid-adolescence. Most notable were relationships between projection and limbic-system fibers and future substance-use frequency. Subcortical white matter coherence, along with an imbalance between the maturation levels in cognitive control and reward systems, may disadvantage the resistance to engage in risk taking behaviors during adolescence. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Physics-of-Failure Approach to Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of the electrical components present in the system. In case of electric vehicles, computing remaining battery charge is safety-critical. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. In this presentation our approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator for different electronic components is presented which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to determine state-of-charge and estimate remaining useful life of respective components. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Tank System Integrated Model: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Sutherlin, S. G.; Schnell, A. R.; Moder, J. P.

2017-01-01

Accurate predictions of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants, pressurization rate, and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning for future space exploration missions. This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, mixing, and condensation on the tank wall. This TM also includes comparisons of TankSIM program predictions with the test data andexamples of multiphase mission calculations.

Lifetime experience with (classic) psychedelics predicts pro-environmental behavior through an increase in nature relatedness.

PubMed

Forstmann, Matthias; Sagioglou, Christina

2017-08-01

In a large-scale ( N = 1487) general population online study, we investigated the relationship between past experience with classic psychedelic substances (e.g. LSD, psilocybin, mescaline), nature relatedness, and ecological behavior (e.g. saving water, recycling). Using structural equation modeling we found that experience with classic psychedelics uniquely predicted self-reported engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, and that this relationship was statistically explained by people's degree of self-identification with nature. Our model controlled for experiences with other classes of psychoactive substances (cannabis, dissociatives, empathogens, popular legal drugs) as well as common personality traits that usually predict drug consumption and/or nature relatedness (openness to experience, conscientiousness, conservatism). Although correlational in nature, results suggest that lifetime experience with psychedelics in particular may indeed contribute to people's pro-environmental behavior by changing their self-construal in terms of an incorporation of the natural world, regardless of core personality traits or general propensity to consume mind-altering substances. Thereby, the present research adds to the contemporary literature on the beneficial effects of psychedelic substance use on mental wellbeing, hinting at a novel area for future research investigating their potentially positive effects on a societal level. Limitations of the present research and future directions are discussed.

SELF-RATED EXPECTATIONS OF SUICIDAL BEHAVIOR PREDICT FUTURE SUICIDE ATTEMPTS AMONG ADOLESCENT AND YOUNG ADULT PSYCHIATRIC EMERGENCY PATIENTS.

PubMed

Czyz, Ewa K; Horwitz, Adam G; King, Cheryl A

2016-06-01

This study's purpose was to examine the predictive validity and clinical utility of a brief measure assessing youths' own expectations of their future risk of suicidal behavior, administered in a psychiatric emergency (PE) department; and determine if youths' ratings improve upon a clinician-administered assessment of suicidal ideation severity. The outcome was suicide attempts up to 18 months later. In this medical record review study, 340 consecutively presenting youths (ages 13-24) seeking PE services over a 7-month period were included. Subsequent PE visits and suicide attempts were retrospectively tracked for up to 18 months. The 3-item scale assessing patients' perception of their own suicidal behavior risk and the clinician-administered ideation severity scale were used routinely at the study site. Cox regression results showed that youths' expectations of suicidal behavior were independently associated with increased risk of suicide attempts, even after adjusting for key covariates. Results were not moderated by sex, suicide attempt history, or age. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analyses indicated that self-assessed expectations of risk improved the predictive accuracy of the clinician-administered suicidal ideation measure. Youths' ratings indicative of lower confidence in maintaining safety uniquely predicted follow-up attempts and provided incremental validity over and above the clinician-administered assessment and improved its accuracy, suggesting their potential for augmenting suicide risk formulation. Assessing youths' own perceptions of suicide risk appears to be clinically useful, feasible to implement in PE settings, and, if replicated, promising for improving identification of youth at risk for suicidal behavior. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Qualitative and temporal reasoning in engine behavior analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dietz, W. E.; Stamps, M. E.; Ali, M.

1987-01-01

Numerical simulation models, engine experts, and experimental data are used to generate qualitative and temporal representations of abnormal engine behavior. Engine parameters monitored during operation are used to generate qualitative and temporal representations of actual engine behavior. Similarities between the representations of failure scenarios and the actual engine behavior are used to diagnose fault conditions which have already occurred, or are about to occur; to increase the surveillance by the monitoring system of relevant engine parameters; and to predict likely future engine behavior.

Sensitivity and specificity of a brief personality screening instrument in predicting future substance use, emotional, and behavioral problems: 18-month predictive validity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale.

PubMed

Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; O'Leary-Barrett, Maeve; Sully, Laura; Conrod, Patricia

2013-01-01

This study assessed the validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS), a measure of personality risk factors for substance use and other behavioral problems in adolescence. The concurrent and predictive validity of the SURPS was tested in a sample of 1,162 adolescents (mean age: 13.7 years) using linear and logistic regressions, while its sensitivity and specificity were examined using the receiver operating characteristics curve analyses. Concurrent and predictive validity tests showed that all 4 brief scales-hopelessness (H), anxiety sensitivity (AS), impulsivity (IMP), and sensation seeking (SS)-were related, in theoretically expected ways, to measures of substance use and other behavioral and emotional problems. Results also showed that when using the 4 SURPS subscales to identify adolescents "at risk," one can identify a high number of those who developed problems (high sensitivity scores ranging from 72 to 91%). And, as predicted, because each scale is related to specific substance and mental health problems, good specificity was obtained when using the individual personality subscales (e.g., most adolescents identified at high risk by the IMP scale developed conduct or drug use problems within the next 18 months [a high specificity score of 70 to 80%]). The SURPS is a valuable tool for identifying adolescents at high risk for substance misuse and other emotional and behavioral problems. Implications of findings for the use of this measure in future research and prevention interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Behavioral and Social Science Research: A National Resource. Part II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Robert McC., Ed.; And Others

Areas of behavioral and social science research that have achieved significant breakthroughs in knowledge or application or that show future promise of achieving such breakthroughs are discussed in 12 papers. For example, the paper on formal demography shows how mathematical or statistical techniques can be used to explain and predict change in…

Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

Parent-Child Discrepancies in Reports of Parental Monitoring and Their Relationship to Adolescent Alcohol-Related Behaviors.

PubMed

Abar, Caitlin C; Jackson, Kristina M; Colby, Suzanne M; Barnett, Nancy P

2015-09-01

Discrepancies between parents and adolescents regarding parenting behaviors have been hypothesized to represent a deficit in the parent-child relationship and may represent unique risk factors for poor developmental outcomes. The current study examined the predictive utility of multiple methods for characterizing discrepancies in parents' and adolescents' reports of parental monitoring on youth alcohol use behaviors in order to inform future study design and predictive modeling. Data for the current study came from a prospective investigation of alcohol initiation and progression. The analyzed sample consisted of 606 adolescents (6th-8th grade; 54 % female) and their parents were surveyed at baseline, with youth followed up 12 months later. A series of hierarchical logistic regressions were performed for each monitoring-related construct examined (parental knowledge, parental control, parental solicitation, and child disclosure). The results showed that adolescents' reports were more closely related to outcomes than parents' reports, while greater discrepancies were frequently found to be uniquely associated with greater likelihood of alcohol use behaviors. Implications for future work incorporating parents' and adolescents' reports are discussed.

A behavioral economic reward index predicts drinking resolutions: moderation revisited and compared with other outcomes.

PubMed

Tucker, Jalie A; Roth, David L; Vignolo, Mary J; Westfall, Andrew O

2009-04-01

Data were pooled from 3 studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1- to 2-year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced preresolution monetary allocations between short-term and longer term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (ORs) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" index predicted higher rates of abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p < .0001) compared with moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of preresolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation.

The Theory of Planned Behavior as a Predictor of Growth in Risky College Drinking*

PubMed Central

Collins, Susan E.; Witkiewitz, Katie; Larimer, Mary E.

2011-01-01

Objective: This study tested the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a predictor of growth in risky college drinking over a 3-month period. As predicted by the TPB model, it was hypothesized that attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control would predict intention to engage in risky drinking, which would in turn predict growth in future risky drinking. Method: Participants were 837 college drinkers (64.2% female) who were randomly selected from two U.S. West Coast universities to participate in a larger study on college drinking norms. This study used latent growth analyses to test the ability of the TPB to predict baseline levels of as well as linear and quadratic growth in risky college drinking (i.e., heavy episodic drinking and peak drinking quantity). Results: Chi-square tests and fit indices indicated close fit for the final structural models. Self-efficacy, attitudes, and subjective norms significantly predicted baseline intention, which in turn predicted future heavy episodic drinking. Self-efficacy and attitudes were also related to intention in the model of peak drinking; however, subjective norms were not a significant predictor of intention in the peak drinking model. Mediation analyses showed that intention to engage in risky drinking mediated the effects of self-efficacy and attitudes on growth in risky drinking. Conclusions: Findings supported the TPB in predicting risky college drinking. Although the current findings should be replicated before definitive conclusions are drawn, results suggest that feedback on self-efficacy, attitudes, and intentions to engage in risky drinking may be a helpful addition to personalized feedback interventions for this population. PMID:21388605

The durations of past sickness absences predict future absence episodes.

PubMed

Laaksonen, Mikko; He, Liang; Pitkäniemi, Janne

2013-01-01

To determine whether preceding absence episodes increase the risk of future sickness absence, we examined recurrence of short (1 to 3 days), intermediate (4 to 14 days), and long (>2 weeks) sickness-absence episodes. Data from 6934 municipal employees of the City of Helsinki were analyzed using proportional hazards models. Preceding sickness absence increased the risk of new sickness-absence episodes. The association was stronger for longer sickness absence spells and for men. Shorter absence spells also predicted longer absence spells. Working conditions and health behaviors did not modify the associations. The risk of recurrent sickness absences is higher for longer sickness-absence spells, which are often recurrent in nature. In addition, short absence spells predict future longer spells, suggesting that short absences are not trivial for health.

Do self- or parent-reported dietary, physical activity, and sedentary behaviors predict worsening obesity in children?

PubMed

Dorsey, Karen B; Mauldon, Maria; Magraw, Ruth; Yu, Sunkyung; Krumholz, Harlan M

2010-10-01

To determine whether information gathered during routine healthcare visits regarding obesity related risk factors and risk behaviors predicts increases in BMI z-score over time among overweight and obese children. Medical records from 168 overweight and 441 obese patients seen for repeated visits between September 2003 and April 2006 were examined for reported dietary, physical activity, and sedentary behaviors, family history of obesity and diabetes mellitus, documented Acanthosis nigricans, and BMI values. Random-effects regression analysis was done to determine whether demographic, familial, or behavioral data predicted changes in BMI z-score over time. The presence of A nigricans and a family history of obesity were associated with an increase in BMI z-score (beta=0.56, SE=0.09, P<.001 and beta=0.31, SE=0.13, P=.021). These risk factors explained 8% and 7% of the variation in BMI z-score respectively. Self- or parent-reported dietary and physical activity behaviors did not predict change in BMI z-score. Our findings suggest that the risk factors and self- or parent-reported risk behaviors routinely assessed by pediatric clinicians have limited ability to predict future growth trends, demonstrating the difficulty in determining which patients have the greatest risk of progression of obesity. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

[Consumer's psychological processes of hoarding and avoidant purchasing after the Tohoku earthquake].

PubMed

Ohtomo, Shoji; Hirose, Yukio

2014-02-01

This study examined psychological processes of consumers that had determined hoarding and avoidant purchasing behaviors after the Tohoku earthquake within a dual-process model. The model hypothesized that both intentional motivation based on reflective decision and reactive motivation based on non-reflective decision predicted the behaviors. This study assumed that attitude, subjective norm and descriptive norm in relation to hoarding and avoidant purchasing were determinants of motivations. Residents in the Tokyo metropolitan area (n = 667) completed internet longitudinal surveys at three times (April, June, and November, 2011). The results indicated that intentional and reactive motivation determined avoidant purchasing behaviors in June; only intentional motivation determined the behaviors in November. Attitude was a main determinant of the motivations each time. Moreover, previous behaviors predicted future behaviors. In conclusion, purchasing behaviors were intentional rather than reactive behaviors. Furthermore, attitude and previous behaviors were important determinants in the dual-process model. Attitude and behaviors formed in April continued to strengthen the subsequent decisions of purchasing behavior.

Fathers' challenging parenting behavior prevents social anxiety development in their 4-year-old children: a longitudinal observational study.

PubMed

Majdandžić, Mirjana; Möller, Eline L; de Vente, Wieke; Bögels, Susan M; van den Boom, Dymphna C

2014-02-01

Recent models on parenting propose different roles for fathers and mothers in the development of child anxiety. Specifically, it is suggested that fathers' challenging parenting behavior, in which the child is playfully encouraged to push her limits, buffers against child anxiety. In this longitudinal study, we explored whether the effect of challenging parenting on children's social anxiety differed between fathers and mothers. Fathers and mothers from 94 families were separately observed with their two children (44 % girls), aged 2 and 4 years at Time 1, in three structured situations involving one puzzle task and two games. Overinvolved and challenging parenting behavior were coded. Child social anxiety was measured by observing the child's response to a stranger at Time 1, and half a year later at Time 2, and by parental ratings. In line with predictions, father's challenging parenting behavior predicted less subsequent observed social anxiety of the 4-year-old child. Mothers' challenging behavior, however, predicted more observed social anxiety of the 4-year-old. Parents' overinvolvement at Time 1 did not predict change in observed social anxiety of the 4-year-old child. For the 2-year-old child, maternal and paternal parenting behavior did not predict subsequent social anxiety, but early social anxiety marginally did. Parent-rated social anxiety was predicted by previous parental ratings of social anxiety, and not by parenting behavior. Challenging parenting behavior appears to have favorable effects on observed 4-year-old's social anxiety when displayed by the father. Challenging parenting behavior emerges as an important focus for future research and interventions.

Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict intention to comply with a food recall message.

PubMed

Freberg, Karen

2013-01-01

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has provided considerable insight into the public's intention to comply with many different health-related messages, but has not been applied previously to intention to comply with food safety recommendations and recalls ( Hallman & Cuite, 2010 ). Because food recalls can differ from other health messages in their urgency, timing, and cessation, the applicability of the TPB in this domain is unknown. The research reported here attempted to address this gap using a nationally representative consumer panel. Results showed that, consistent with the theory's predictions, attitudes and subjective norms were predictive of the intention to comply with a food recall message, with attitudes having a much greater impact on intent to comply than subjective norms. Perceived behavioral control failed to predict intention to comply. Implications of these results for health public relations and crisis communications and recommendations for future research were discussed.

Prediction as a humanitarian and pragmatic contribution from human cognitive neuroscience.

PubMed

Gabrieli, John D E; Ghosh, Satrajit S; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan

2015-01-07

Neuroimaging has greatly enhanced the cognitive neuroscience understanding of the human brain and its variation across individuals (neurodiversity) in both health and disease. Such progress has not yet, however, propelled changes in educational or medical practices that improve people's lives. We review neuroimaging findings in which initial brain measures (neuromarkers) are correlated with or predict future education, learning, and performance in children and adults; criminality; health-related behaviors; and responses to pharmacological or behavioral treatments. Neuromarkers often provide better predictions (neuroprognosis), alone or in combination with other measures, than traditional behavioral measures. With further advances in study designs and analyses, neuromarkers may offer opportunities to personalize educational and clinical practices that lead to better outcomes for people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Vessel Trajectories from Ais Data Using R

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

future position at the expectation level set by the user, therefore producing a valid methodology for both estimating the future vessel location and... methodology for both estimating the future vessel location and for assessing anomalous vessel behavior. vi THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vii... methodology , that brings them one step closer to attaining these goals. A key idea in the current literature is that the series of vessel locations

An Examination of Exercise-Induced Feeling States and Their Association With Future Participation in Physical Activity Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Brunet, Jennifer; Guérin, Eva; Speranzini, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Although exercise-induced feeling states may play a role in driving future behavior, their role in relation to older adults' participation in physical activity (PA) has seldom been considered. The objectives of this study were to describe changes in older adults' feeling states during exercise, and examine if levels of and changes in feeling states predicted their future participation in PA. Self-reported data on feeling states were collected from 82 older adults immediately before, during, and after a moderate-intensity exercise session, and on participation in PA 1 month later. Data were analyzed using latent growth modeling. Feelings of revitalization, positive engagement, and tranquility decreased during exercise, whereas feelings of physical exhaustion increased. Feelings of revitalization immediately before the exercise session predicted future participation in PA; changes in feeling states did not. This study does not provide empirical evidence that older adults' exercise-induced feeling states predict their future participation in PA.

The Changing Science of Urban Transportation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, Tom

2010-03-01

The last half of the 20th Century was the age of the automobile, and the development of bigger and faster roads defined urban planning for more than 50 years. During this period, transportation planners developed sophisticated behavior models to help predict future travel patterns in an attempt to keep pace with ever-growing congestion and public demand for more roads. By the 1990s, however, it was clear that eliminating congestion with new road capacity was an unattainable outcome, and had unintended effects that were never considered when the automobile era first emerged. Today, public expectations are rapidly evolving beyond ``building our way out'' of congestion, and toward more complex definitions of desired outcomes in transportation planning. In this new century, planners must improve behavior models to predict not only the travel patterns of the future, but also the subsequent environmental, social and public health effects associated with growth and changes in travel behavior, and provide alternative transportation solutions that respond to these broader outcomes.

The development and validation of the Dieting Intentions Scale (DIS).

PubMed

Cruwys, Tegan; Platow, Michael J; Rieger, Elizabeth; Byrne, Don G

2013-03-01

This article presents information on the psychometric properties of the Dieting Intentions Scale (DIS), a new scale of dieting that predicts future behavioral efforts to lose weight. We begin by reviewing recent research indicating theoretical and empirical problems with traditional approaches to measuring dieting. The DIS addresses several of these problems by (a) focusing on naturalistic dieting behavior and (b) being future-oriented. Four validation studies are presented with a total of 741 participants. We demonstrate that the DIS has predictive utility for dieting behaviors and is positively correlated with other measures related to eating, weight, and shape. Furthermore, the DIS demonstrates discriminant validity by not being related to constructs such as self-esteem and social desirability. The DIS also has high internal consistency, with a 1-factor solution replicated with confirmatory factor analysis. The potential uses of the scale in both research and clinical settings are considered. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Informing alcohol interventions for student service members/veterans: Normative perceptions and coping strategies.

PubMed

Miller, Mary Beth; Brett, Emma I; Leavens, Eleanor L; Meier, Ellen; Borsari, Brian; Leffingwell, Thad R

2016-06-01

The current study aimed to inform future interventions for heavy alcohol use and problems among college students by examining the utility of normative perceptions and coping strategies in predicting alcohol use among student service members/Veterans (SSM/Vs). SSM/Vs and civilian students (N=319) at a large university in the Southern Plains completed self-report measures of demographics, alcohol use and related behaviors, and coping strategies. Both SSM/Vs and civilian students significantly overestimated the typical weekly drinking quantities and frequencies of same-sex students on campus. Among SSM/Vs, normative perceptions of typical student (not military-specific) drinking and substance-related coping strategies significantly predicted drinks consumed per week, while substance-related coping predicted alcohol-related consequences. Despite the theoretical importance of similarity to normative referents, military-specific norms did not significantly improve the prediction of SSM/Vs' personal drinking behavior. Moreover, neither typical student nor military-specific norms predicted alcohol-related consequences among SSM/Vs after accounting for substance-related coping strategies. Future research may examine the efficacy of descriptive normative feedback and the importance of military-specific norms in alcohol interventions for SSM/Vs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Informing Alcohol Interventions for Student Service Members/Veterans: Normative Perceptions and Coping Strategies

PubMed Central

Miller, Mary Beth; Brett, Emma I.; Leavens, Eleanor L.; Meier, Ellen; Borsari, Brian; Leffingwell, Thad R.

2016-01-01

Objective The current study aimed to inform future interventions for heavy alcohol use and problems among college students by examining the utility of normative perceptions and coping strategies in predicting alcohol use among student service members/Veterans (SSM/Vs). Methods SSM/Vs and civilian students (N = 319) at a large university in the Southern Plains completed self-report measures of demographics, alcohol use and related behaviors, and coping strategies. Results Both SSM/Vs and civilian students significantly overestimated the typical weekly drinking quantities and frequencies of same-sex students on campus. Among SSM/Vs, normative perceptions of typical student (not military-specific) drinking and substance-related coping strategies significantly predicted drinks consumed per week, while substance-related coping predicted alcohol-related consequences. Conclusions Despite the theoretical importance of similarity to normative referents, military-specific norms did not significantly improve the prediction of SSM/Vs’ personal drinking behavior. Moreover, neither typical student nor military-specific norms predicted alcohol-related consequences among SSM/Vs after accounting for substance-related coping strategies. Future research may examine the efficacy of descriptive normative feedback and the importance of military-specific norms in alcohol interventions for SSM/Vs. PMID:26894552

The nonlinear dynamics of family problem solving in adolescence: the predictive validity of a peaceful resolution attractor.

PubMed

Dishion, Thomas J; Forgatch, Marion; Van Ryzin, Mark; Winter, Charlotte

2012-07-01

In this study we examined the videotaped family interactions of a community sample of adolescents and their parents. Youths were assessed in early to late adolescence on their levels of antisocial behavior. At age 16-17, youths and their parents were videotaped interacting while completing a variety of tasks, including family problem solving. The interactions were coded and compared for three developmental patterns of antisocial behavior: early onset, persistent; adolescence onset; and typically developing. The mean duration of conflict bouts was the only interaction pattern that discriminated the 3 groups. In the prediction of future antisocial behavior, parent and youth reports of transition entropy and conflict resolution interacted to account for antisocial behavior at age 18-19. Families with low entropy and peaceful resolutions predicted low levels of youth antisocial behavior at age 18-19. These findings suggest the need to study both attractors and repellers to understand family dynamics associated with health and social and emotional development.

The Nonlinear Dynamics of Family Problem Solving in Adolescence: The Predictive Validity of a Peaceful Resolution Attractor

PubMed Central

Dishion, Thomas J.; Forgatch, Marion; Van Ryzin, Mark; Winter, Charlotte

2012-01-01

In this study we examined the videotaped family interactions of a community sample of adolescents and their parents. Youths were assessed in early to late adolescence on their levels of antisocial behavior. At age 16–17, youths and their parents were videotaped interacting while completing a variety of tasks, including family problem solving. The interactions were coded and compared for 3 developmental patterns of antisocial behavior: early onset, persistent; adolescence onset; and typically developing. The mean duration of conflict bouts was the only interaction pattern that discriminated the 3 groups. In the prediction of future antisocial behavior, parent and youth reports of transition entropy and conflict resolution interacted to account for antisocial behavior at age 18–19. Families with low entropy and peaceful resolutions predicted low levels of youth antisocial behavior at age 18–19. These findings suggest the need to study both attractors and repellers to understand family dynamics associated with health and social and emotional development. PMID:22695152

The second shift reflected in the second generation: do parents' gender roles at home predict children's aspirations?

PubMed

Croft, Alyssa; Schmader, Toni; Block, Katharina; Baron, Andrew Scott

2014-07-01

Gender inequality at home continues to constrain gender equality at work. How do the gender disparities in domestic labor that children observe between their parents predict those children's visions for their future roles? The present research examined how parents' behaviors and implicit associations concerning domestic roles, over and above their explicit beliefs, predict their children's future aspirations. Data from 326 children aged 7 to 13 years revealed that mothers' explicit beliefs about domestic gender roles predicted the beliefs held by their children. In addition, when fathers enacted or espoused a more egalitarian distribution of household labor, their daughters in particular expressed a greater interest in working outside the home and having a less stereotypical occupation. Fathers' implicit gender-role associations also uniquely predicted daughters' (but not sons') occupational preferences. These findings suggest that a more balanced division of household labor between parents might promote greater workforce equality in future generations. © The Author(s) 2014.

Healthy, wealthy, and wise: retirement planning predicts employee health improvements.

PubMed

Gubler, Timothy; Pierce, Lamar

2014-09-01

Are poor physical and financial health driven by the same underlying psychological factors? We found that the decision to contribute to a 401(k) retirement plan predicted whether an individual acted to correct poor physical-health indicators revealed during an employer-sponsored health examination. Using this examination as a quasi-exogenous shock to employees' personal-health knowledge, we examined which employees were more likely to improve their health, controlling for differences in initial health, demographics, job type, and income. We found that existing retirement-contribution patterns and future health improvements were highly correlated. Employees who saved for the future by contributing to a 401(k) showed improvements in their abnormal blood-test results and health behaviors approximately 27% more often than noncontributors did. These findings are consistent with an underlying individual time-discounting trait that is both difficult to change and domain interdependent, and that predicts long-term individual behaviors in multiple dimensions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Deadline rush: a time management phenomenon and its mathematical description.

PubMed

König, Cornelius J; Kleinmann, Martin

2005-01-01

A typical time management phenomenon is the rush before a deadline. Behavioral decision making research can be used to predict how behavior changes before a deadline. People are likely not to work on a project with a deadline in the far future because they generally discount future outcomes. Only when the deadline is close are people likely to work. On the basis of recent intertemporal choice experiments, the authors argue that a hyperbolic function should provide a more accurate description of the deadline rush than an exponential function predicted by an economic model of discounted utility. To show this, the fit of the hyperbolic and the exponential function were compared with data sets that describe when students study for exams. As predicted, the hyperbolic function fit the data significantly better than the exponential function. The implication for time management decisions is that they are most likely to be inconsistent over time (i.e., people make a plan how to use their time but do not follow it).

Predicting a future lifetime through Box-Cox transformation.

PubMed

Yang, Z

1999-09-01

In predicting a future lifetime based on a sample of past lifetimes, the Box-Cox transformation method provides a simple and unified procedure that is shown in this article to meet or often outperform the corresponding frequentist solution in terms of coverage probability and average length of prediction intervals. Kullback-Leibler information and second-order asymptotic expansion are used to justify the Box-Cox procedure. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are also performed to evaluate the small sample behavior of the procedure. Certain popular lifetime distributions, such as Weibull, inverse Gaussian and Birnbaum-Saunders are served as illustrative examples. One important advantage of the Box-Cox procedure lies in its easy extension to linear model predictions where the exact frequentist solutions are often not available.

Lateral habenula neurons signal errors in the prediction of reward information

PubMed Central

Bromberg-Martin, Ethan S.; Hikosaka, Okihide

2011-01-01

Humans and animals have a remarkable ability to predict future events, which they achieve by persistently searching their environment for sources of predictive information. Yet little is known about the neural systems that motivate this behavior. We hypothesized that information-seeking is assigned value by the same circuits that support reward-seeking, so that neural signals encoding conventional “reward prediction errors” include analogous “information prediction errors”. To test this we recorded from neurons in the lateral habenula, a nucleus which encodes reward prediction errors, while monkeys chose between cues that provided different amounts of information about upcoming rewards. We found that a subpopulation of lateral habenula neurons transmitted signals resembling information prediction errors, responding when reward information was unexpectedly cued, delivered, or denied. Their signals evaluated information sources reliably even when the animal’s decisions did not. These neurons could provide a common instructive signal for reward-seeking and information-seeking behavior. PMID:21857659

Autistic Symptoms in Childhood Arrestees: Longitudinal Association with Delinquent Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geluk, Charlotte A. M. L.; Jansen, Lucres M. C.; Vermeiren, Robert; Doreleijers, Theo A. H.; van Domburgh, Lieke; de Bildt, Annelies; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Hartman, Catharina A.

2012-01-01

Background: To compare childhood arrestees with matched comparison groups on levels of autistic symptoms and to assess the unique predictive value of autistic symptoms for future delinquent behavior in childhood arrestees. Methods: Childhood first-time arrestees (n = 308, baseline age 10.7 plus or minus 1.5 years) were followed up for 2 years.…

Neuroanatomical correlates of time perspective: A voxel-based morphometry study.

PubMed

Chen, Zhiyi; Guo, Yiqun; Feng, Tingyong

2018-02-26

Previous studies indicated that time perspective can affect many behaviors, such as decisions, risk taking, substance abuse and health behaviors. However, very little is known about the neural substrates of time perspective (TP). To address this question, we characterized different dimensions of TP (including the Past, Present, and Future TP) using standardized Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI), and quantified the gray matter volume using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) method across two independent samples. Our whole-brain analysis (sample 1, N=150) revealed Past-Negative TP was positively correlated with the GMV of a cluster in LPFC whereas Past-Positive was negatively correlated with the GMV in OFC, and Future TP was negatively correlated with GMV in mPFC. Moreover, two present scales (Present-Hedonistic and Present-Fatalistic TPs) were positively correlated with the GMV of regions in MTG and precuneus, respectively. We further examined the reliability of these correlations between multidimensional TPs and neuroanatomical structures in another independent sample (sample 2, N=58). Results verified our findings that GMV in LPFC could predict Past-Negative TP while GMV in OFC could predict Past-Positive TP, and the GMV in MTG could predict Present-Hedonistic while the GMV in presuneus could predict Present-Fatalistic, as well as the GMV in mPFC could predict Future TP. Thus, our findings suggest that the existence of selective neural basis underlying TPs, and further provide the stable biomarkers for multidimensional TPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of self-identity in predicting fruit and vegetable intake.

PubMed

Carfora, V; Caso, D; Conner, M

2016-11-01

This research investigated whether the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with the addition of self-identity could predict fruit and vegetable intake when controlling for past behavior. Previous research had demonstrated the efficacy of TPB to predict intention and behavior in relation to food choice and the additional power of self-identity, but had failed assess the effects of self-identity while controlling for past behavior. At baseline (N = 210) TPB components and past behavior in relation to fruit and vegetable consumption plus self-identity as a healthy eater were measured by questionnaire in a sample of university students. At time 1, 4 weeks later, self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption was measured. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) indicated attitude, PBC and self-identity to be significant predictors of intention (subjective norm and past behavior were not significant). Intention, self-identity and past behavior were direct predictors of behavior. The current findings support the independent effect of self-identity as a healthy eater on both intentions and future behaviour when controlling for TPB variables and also past behavior. The discussion considers the importance of self-identity in changing intentions and behavior for behaviors such as fruit and vegetable consumption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

PubMed Central

Kurashima, Takeshi; Althoff, Tim; Leskovec, Jure

2018-01-01

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions. PMID:29780977

Predictors of Prosocial Behavior: Differences in Middle Aged and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Wenner, Jennifer R.; Randall, Brandy A.

2016-01-01

Generativity, contributing to the next generation, is important for well-being throughout middle and late life. Therefore, it is crucial to understand what contributes to generativity during these life stages. Parenting and work are common, but not the only, ways people engage generatively; prosocial behavior is another. A community connection may encourage generative contributions in adults. However, older adults may face obstacles to being generative, and may need an additional drive to engage in these behaviors. Given this, it was expected that community cohesion would predict prosocial behavior despite age, and that grit would provide motivation for older adults, so the current study examined whether age moderated the relation between grit and prosocial behavior. Data were used from 188 upper-Midwest adults (aged 37-89). Multiple regression analyses showed that age moderated the relation between grit and prosocial behavior such that grit predicted prosocial behavior in older adults but not middle age adults. A sense of community cohesion was predictive of prosocial behavior despite age. While grit may promote generative acts in different ways depending on age, a sense of community cohesion may foster community contributions despite age. The discussion focuses on future directions and ways to promote generativity using this research. PMID:28163344

Predictors of Prosocial Behavior: Differences in Middle Aged and Older Adults.

PubMed

Wenner, Jennifer R; Randall, Brandy A

2016-10-01

Generativity, contributing to the next generation, is important for well-being throughout middle and late life. Therefore, it is crucial to understand what contributes to generativity during these life stages. Parenting and work are common, but not the only, ways people engage generatively; prosocial behavior is another. A community connection may encourage generative contributions in adults. However, older adults may face obstacles to being generative, and may need an additional drive to engage in these behaviors. Given this, it was expected that community cohesion would predict prosocial behavior despite age, and that grit would provide motivation for older adults, so the current study examined whether age moderated the relation between grit and prosocial behavior. Data were used from 188 upper-Midwest adults (aged 37-89). Multiple regression analyses showed that age moderated the relation between grit and prosocial behavior such that grit predicted prosocial behavior in older adults but not middle age adults. A sense of community cohesion was predictive of prosocial behavior despite age. While grit may promote generative acts in different ways depending on age, a sense of community cohesion may foster community contributions despite age. The discussion focuses on future directions and ways to promote generativity using this research.

Prediction during statistical learning, and implications for the implicit/explicit divide

PubMed Central

Dale, Rick; Duran, Nicholas D.; Morehead, J. Ryan

2012-01-01

Accounts of statistical learning, both implicit and explicit, often invoke predictive processes as central to learning, yet practically all experiments employ non-predictive measures during training. We argue that the common theoretical assumption of anticipation and prediction needs clearer, more direct evidence for it during learning. We offer a novel experimental context to explore prediction, and report results from a simple sequential learning task designed to promote predictive behaviors in participants as they responded to a short sequence of simple stimulus events. Predictive tendencies in participants were measured using their computer mouse, the trajectories of which served as a means of tapping into predictive behavior while participants were exposed to very short and simple sequences of events. A total of 143 participants were randomly assigned to stimulus sequences along a continuum of regularity. Analysis of computer-mouse trajectories revealed that (a) participants almost always anticipate events in some manner, (b) participants exhibit two stable patterns of behavior, either reacting to vs. predicting future events, (c) the extent to which participants predict relates to performance on a recall test, and (d) explicit reports of perceiving patterns in the brief sequence correlates with extent of prediction. We end with a discussion of implicit and explicit statistical learning and of the role prediction may play in both kinds of learning. PMID:22723817

Context Effects of Alcohol Availability at Home: Implicit Alcohol Associations and the Prediction of Adolescents' Drinking Behavior.

PubMed

Peeters, Margot; Koning, Ina; Monshouwer, Karin; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Wiers, Reinout W

2016-09-01

Recent studies suggest that the predictive effect of implicit alcohol associations is context dependent. Findings indicate that implicit associations are more easily retrieved in an alcohol-associated setting or context (e.g., bar) compared with a neutral setting. In line with this reasoning, we hypothesized that alcohol availability at home might moderate the relationship between implicit alcohol associations and future drinking behavior of adolescents. Participants were 262 at-risk adolescents (235 boys, 27 girls, adolescents with externalizing behavioral problems) with a mean age of 14.11 years (SD = 0.86, age range: 12-16 years) at baseline. Adolescents completed a questionnaire and a modified version of the Implicit Association Test (i.e., Single Category Implicit Association Test; SC-IAT). Stronger implicit alcohol associations predicted increase in frequency of alcohol use, only in adolescents who indicated that alcohol was available at home. No moderating effects were found for increase in quantity of alcohol use and problematic alcohol use, suggesting that implicit alcohol associations particularly influence the decision of whether to drink in adolescence. The findings illustrate that the availability of alcohol in the home setting influences adolescents' implicit alcohol associations and consequently affects the frequency of alcohol use. In this way, alcohol availability at home may be an important contextual factor to consider when examining the effect of implicit alcohol associations on the future drinking behavior of adolescents.

HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual-risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa

PubMed Central

Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Schiffer, Joshua T.; Ashley, Rhoda; Mumtaz, Ghina; Alsallaq, Ramzi A.; Akala, Francisca Ayodeji; Semini, Iris; Riedner, Gabriele; Wilson, David

2013-01-01

Background HIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for HIV risk within MENA. Methods We designed a mathematical model to assess whether HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA. Results We found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV epidemics among several high-risk core groups is high. Conclusions HSV-2 prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited. PMID:21352788

Impact of Predicting Health Care Utilization Via Web Search Behavior: A Data-Driven Analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Vibhu; Zhang, Liangliang; Zhu, Josh; Fang, Shiyuan; Cheng, Tim; Hong, Chloe; Shah, Nigam H

2016-09-21

By recent estimates, the steady rise in health care costs has deprived more than 45 million Americans of health care services and has encouraged health care providers to better understand the key drivers of health care utilization from a population health management perspective. Prior studies suggest the feasibility of mining population-level patterns of health care resource utilization from observational analysis of Internet search logs; however, the utility of the endeavor to the various stakeholders in a health ecosystem remains unclear. The aim was to carry out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the conversion rates of advertisements that were displayed to the predicted future utilizers as a surrogate. The statistical models to predict the probability of user's future visit to a medical facility were built using effective predictors of health care resource utilization, extracted from a deidentified dataset of geotagged mobile Internet search logs representing searches made by users of the Baidu search engine between March 2015 and May 2015. We inferred presence within the geofence of a medical facility from location and duration information from users' search logs and putatively assigned medical facility visit labels to qualifying search logs. We constructed a matrix of general, semantic, and location-based features from search logs of users that had 42 or more search days preceding a medical facility visit as well as from search logs of users that had no medical visits and trained statistical learners for predicting future medical visits. We then carried out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the show conversion rates of advertisements displayed to the predicted future utilizers. In the context of behaviorally targeted advertising, wherein health care providers are interested in minimizing their cost per conversion, the association between show conversion rate and predicted utilization score, served as a surrogate measure of the model's utility. We obtained the highest area under the curve (0.796) in medical visit prediction with our random forests model and daywise features. Ablating feature categories one at a time showed that the model performance worsened the most when location features were dropped. An online evaluation in which advertisements were served to users who had a high predicted probability of a future medical visit showed a 3.96% increase in the show conversion rate. Results from our experiments done in a research setting suggest that it is possible to accurately predict future patient visits from geotagged mobile search logs. Results from the offline and online experiments on the utility of health utilization predictions suggest that such prediction can have utility for health care providers.

Impact of Predicting Health Care Utilization Via Web Search Behavior: A Data-Driven Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liangliang; Zhu, Josh; Fang, Shiyuan; Cheng, Tim; Hong, Chloe; Shah, Nigam H

2016-01-01

Background By recent estimates, the steady rise in health care costs has deprived more than 45 million Americans of health care services and has encouraged health care providers to better understand the key drivers of health care utilization from a population health management perspective. Prior studies suggest the feasibility of mining population-level patterns of health care resource utilization from observational analysis of Internet search logs; however, the utility of the endeavor to the various stakeholders in a health ecosystem remains unclear. Objective The aim was to carry out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the conversion rates of advertisements that were displayed to the predicted future utilizers as a surrogate. The statistical models to predict the probability of user’s future visit to a medical facility were built using effective predictors of health care resource utilization, extracted from a deidentified dataset of geotagged mobile Internet search logs representing searches made by users of the Baidu search engine between March 2015 and May 2015. Methods We inferred presence within the geofence of a medical facility from location and duration information from users’ search logs and putatively assigned medical facility visit labels to qualifying search logs. We constructed a matrix of general, semantic, and location-based features from search logs of users that had 42 or more search days preceding a medical facility visit as well as from search logs of users that had no medical visits and trained statistical learners for predicting future medical visits. We then carried out a closed-loop evaluation of the utility of health care use predictions using the show conversion rates of advertisements displayed to the predicted future utilizers. In the context of behaviorally targeted advertising, wherein health care providers are interested in minimizing their cost per conversion, the association between show conversion rate and predicted utilization score, served as a surrogate measure of the model’s utility. Results We obtained the highest area under the curve (0.796) in medical visit prediction with our random forests model and daywise features. Ablating feature categories one at a time showed that the model performance worsened the most when location features were dropped. An online evaluation in which advertisements were served to users who had a high predicted probability of a future medical visit showed a 3.96% increase in the show conversion rate. Conclusions Results from our experiments done in a research setting suggest that it is possible to accurately predict future patient visits from geotagged mobile search logs. Results from the offline and online experiments on the utility of health utilization predictions suggest that such prediction can have utility for health care providers. PMID:27655225

The Propensity for Mentorship at the United States Naval Academy: A Study of Navy and Marine Corps Junior Officers

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

to the table. The motivations , personalities, and behavioral traits of both mentors and protégés may help to predict the future development and...officers at the Naval Academy and identify how previous mentorship experience, prosocial behaviors , and personal (versus instrumental) motives relate...how previous mentorship experience, prosocial behaviors , and personal (versus instrumental) motives relate to junior officer willingness to mentor

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing.

PubMed

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models.

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

PubMed Central

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models. PMID:29062288

Modeling of rolling element bearing mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhill, L. M.

1991-01-01

Roller element bearings provide the primary mechanical interface between rotating and nonrotating components in the high performance turbomachinery of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Knowledge of bearing behavior under various loading and environmental conditions is essential to predicting and understanding the overall behavior of turbopumps, including rotordynamic stability, critical speeds and bearing life. The objective is to develop mathematical models and computer programs to describe the mechanical behavior of ball and cylinder roller bearings under the loading and environmental conditions encountered in the SSME and future high performance rocket engines. This includes characteristics such as nonlinear load/motion relationships, stiffness and damping, rolling element loads for life prediction, and roller and cage stability.

Past makes future: role of pFC in prediction.

PubMed

Fuster, Joaquín M; Bressler, Steven L

2015-04-01

The pFC enables the essential human capacities for predicting future events and preadapting to them. These capacities rest on both the structure and dynamics of the human pFC. Structurally, pFC, together with posterior association cortex, is at the highest hierarchical level of cortical organization, harboring neural networks that represent complex goal-directed actions. Dynamically, pFC is at the highest level of the perception-action cycle, the circular processing loop through the cortex that interfaces the organism with the environment in the pursuit of goals. In its predictive and preadaptive roles, pFC supports cognitive functions that are critical for the temporal organization of future behavior, including planning, attentional set, working memory, decision-making, and error monitoring. These functions have a common future perspective and are dynamically intertwined in goal-directed action. They all utilize the same neural infrastructure: a vast array of widely distributed, overlapping, and interactive cortical networks of personal memory and semantic knowledge, named cognits, which are formed by synaptic reinforcement in learning and memory acquisition. From this cortex-wide reservoir of memory and knowledge, pFC generates purposeful, goal-directed actions that are preadapted to predicted future events.

When Preferences Are in the Way: Children's Predictions of Goal-Directed Behaviors.

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Frye, Douglas

2017-12-18

Across three studies, we examined 4- to 7-year-olds' predictions of goal-directed behaviors when goals conflict with preferences. In Study 1, when presented with stories in which a character had to act against basic preferences to achieve an interpersonal goal (e.g., playing with a partner), 6- and 7-year-olds were more likely than 4- and 5-year-olds to predict the actor would act in accordance with the goal to play with the partner, instead of fulfilling the basic preference of playing a favored activity. Similar results were obtained in Study 2 with scenarios that each involved a single individual pursuing intrapersonal goals that conflicted with his or her basic preferences. In Study 3, younger children's predictions of goal-directed behaviors did not increase for novel goals and preferences, when the influences of their own preferences, future thinking, or a lack of impulse control were minimized. The results suggest that between ages 4 and 7, children increasingly integrate and give more weight to other sources of motivational information (e.g., goals) in addition to preferences when predicting people's behaviors. This increasing awareness may have implications for children's self-regulatory and goal pursuit behaviors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Using behavior change frameworks to improve healthcare worker influenza vaccination rates: A systematic review.

PubMed

Corace, Kimberly M; Srigley, Jocelyn A; Hargadon, Daniel P; Yu, Dorothy; MacDonald, Tara K; Fabrigar, Leandre R; Garber, Gary E

2016-06-14

Influenza vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) is important for protecting staff and patients, yet vaccine coverage among HCW remains below recommended targets. Psychological theories of behavior change may help guide interventions to improve vaccine uptake. Our objectives were to: (1) review the effectiveness of interventions based on psychological theories of behavior change to improve HCW influenza vaccination rates, and (2) determine which psychological theories have been used to predict HCW influenza vaccination uptake. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, The Joanna Briggs Institute, SocINDEX, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for studies that applied psychological theories of behavior change to improve and/or predict influenza vaccination uptake among HCW. The literature search yielded a total of 1810 publications; 10 articles met eligibility criteria. All studies used behavior change theories to predict HCW vaccination behavior; none evaluated interventions based on these theories. The Health Belief Model was the most frequently employed theory to predict influenza vaccination uptake among HCW. The remaining predictive studies employed the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Risk Perception Attitude, and the Triandis Model of Interpersonal Behavior. The behavior change framework constructs were successful in differentiating between vaccinated and non-vaccinated HCW. Key constructs identified included: attitudes regarding the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination, perceptions of risk and benefit to self and others, self-efficacy, cues to action, and social-professional norms. The behavior change frameworks, along with sociodemographic variables, successfully predicted 85-95% of HCW influenza vaccination uptake. Vaccination is a complex behavior. Our results suggest that psychological theories of behavior change are promising tools to increase HCW influenza vaccination uptake. Future studies are needed to develop and evaluate novel interventions based on behavior change theories, which may help achieve recommended HCW vaccination targets. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Predictive Technologies: Can Smart Tools Augment the Brain's Predictive Abilities?

PubMed Central

Pezzulo, Giovanni; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Gaggioli, Andrea

2016-01-01

The ability of “looking into the future”—namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body—represents a fundamental function of human (and animal) brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball's direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent's next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes—in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behavior of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain's ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic) simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality. PMID:27199648

Characteristics of male and female prisoners involved in bullying behavior.

PubMed

Ireland, Jane L; Archer, John; Power, Christina L

2007-01-01

This study explores bullying behavior in a larger and more representative sample than previous prison-based research. It has two core aims, first to explore the nature of bullying in relation to indirect and direct aggression and, second, to explore the predictors of bully-category membership with particular reference to behavioral characteristics. Participants were adult men (n=728) and women (n=525) prisoners. All completed a behavioral measure of behavior indicative of bullying (Direct and Indirect Prisoner behavior Checklist, DIPC) that also explored prison-based behavior such as negative acts towards staff or prison rules, positive acts and drug-related behavior. Indirect aggression was, as predicted, reported more frequently than direct aggression, although this only held for perpetration. Bully-victims, as predicted, showed more negative behavior. Pure bullies and pure victims also showed more negative behavior than the other categories. The findings are discussed in relation to the environment in which bullying behavior is being assessed and with attention to the possible motivations underlying both bullying and negative behavior. Directions for future research are suggested. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Cross-National Analysis of the Associations among Mental Disorders and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Nock, Matthew K.; Hwang, Irving; Sampson, Nancy; Kessler, Ronald C.; Angermeyer, Matthias; Beautrais, Annette; Borges, Guilherme; Bromet, Evelyn; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Florescu, Silvia; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Karam, Elie G.; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Tomov, Toma; Viana, Maria Carmen; Williams, David R.

2009-01-01

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Mental disorders are among the strongest predictors of suicide; however, little is known about which disorders are uniquely predictive of suicidal behavior, the extent to which disorders predict suicide attempts beyond their association with suicidal thoughts, and whether these associations are similar across developed and developing countries. This study was designed to test each of these questions with a focus on nonfatal suicide attempts. Methods and Findings Data on the lifetime presence and age-of-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders and nonfatal suicidal behaviors were collected via structured face-to-face interviews with 108,664 respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. The results show that each lifetime disorder examined significantly predicts the subsequent first onset of suicide attempt (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.9–8.9). After controlling for comorbidity, these associations decreased substantially (ORs = 1.5–5.6) but remained significant in most cases. Overall, mental disorders were equally predictive in developed and developing countries, with a key difference being that the strongest predictors of suicide attempts in developed countries were mood disorders, whereas in developing countries impulse-control, substance use, and post-traumatic stress disorders were most predictive. Disaggregation of the associations between mental disorders and nonfatal suicide attempts showed that these associations are largely due to disorders predicting the onset of suicidal thoughts rather than predicting progression from thoughts to attempts. In the few instances where mental disorders predicted the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts, the significant disorders are characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control. The limitations of this study include the use of retrospective self-reports of lifetime occurrence and age-of-onset of mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, as well as the narrow focus on mental disorders as predictors of nonfatal suicidal behaviors, each of which must be addressed in future studies. Conclusions This study found that a wide range of mental disorders increased the odds of experiencing suicide ideation. However, after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity, only disorders characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control predict which people with suicide ideation act on such thoughts. These findings provide a more fine-grained understanding of the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicidal behavior than previously available and indicate that mental disorders predict suicidal behaviors similarly in both developed and developing countries. Future research is needed to delineate the mechanisms through which people come to think about suicide and subsequently progress from ideation to attempts. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary PMID:19668361

A multilevel modeling approach to examining the implementation-effectiveness relationship of a behavior change intervention for health care professional trainees.

PubMed

Tomasone, Jennifer R; Sweet, Shane N; McReynolds, Stuart; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A

2017-09-01

Changing Minds, Changing Lives, a seminar-mediated behavior change intervention, aims to enhance health care professionals' (HCPs') social cognitions for discussing leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) with patients with physical disabilities. This study examines which seminar implementation variables (presenter characteristics, delivery components) predict effectiveness using multilevel modeling. HCP trainees (n = 564) attended 24 seminars and completed Theory of Planned Behavior-based measures for discussing LTPA at pre-, post-, 1-month post-, and 6-months post-seminar. Implementation variables were extracted from presenter-completed questionnaires/checklists. Seminars presented by a HCP predicted positive changes in all cognitions pre-post but negative changes in attitudes and perceived behavioral control (PBC) over follow-up (ps < .05). The number of seminars the presenter had delivered predicted negative changes in attitudes and PBC during follow-up (ps < .001). Inclusion of audiovisual components predicted positive changes in attitudes pre-post (p < .001). Presenter characteristics may be "key ingredients" to educational interventions for HCPs; however, future studies should examine additional implementation variables.

Prospective test of the developmental propensity model of antisocial behavior: from childhood and adolescence into early adulthood.

PubMed

Lahey, Benjamin B; Class, Quetzal A; Zald, David H; Rathouz, Paul J; Applegate, Brooks; Waldman, Irwin D

2018-06-01

The developmental propensity model of antisocial behavior posits that several dispositional characteristics of children transact with the environment to influence the likelihood of learning antisocial behavior across development. Specifically, greater dispositional negative emotionality, greater daring, and lower prosociality-operationally, the inverse of callousness- and lower cognitive abilities are each predicted to increase risk for developing antisocial behavior. Prospective tests of key predictions derived from the model were conducted in a high-risk sample of 499 twins who were assessed on dispositions at 10-17 years of age and assessed for antisocial personality disorder (APD) symptoms at 22-31 years of age. Predictions were tested separately for parent and youth informants on the dispositions using multiple regressions that adjusted for oversampling, nonresponse, and clustering within twin pairs, controlling demographic factors and time since the first assessment. Consistent with predictions, greater numbers of APD symptoms in adulthood were independently predicted over a 10-15 year span by higher youth ratings on negative emotionality and daring and lower youth ratings on prosociality, and by parent ratings of greater negative emotionality and lower prosociality. A measure of working memory did not predict APD symptoms. These findings support future research on the role of these dispositions in the development of antisocial behavior. © 2017 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

A contextual approach to research on AIDS prevention

PubMed Central

Wulfert, Edelgard; Biglan, Anthony

1994-01-01

The acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a disease that is transmitted almost entirely through behavioral factors. In the absence of a cure or vaccine, the modification of AIDS-risk behavior presents a unique challenge to behavioral scientists and should be taken as a clear imperative by behavior analysts. This paper discusses the currently dominant social-cognitive theories (the health belief model, the theory of reasoned action, and self-efficacy theory) that have been widely used to predict and understand AIDS-risk behavior. Although these theories have generated a voluminous literature on the cognitive, attitudinal, and demographic correlates of AIDS-risk behavior, they have not resulted in specific intervention strategies to influence risky behavior, most likely because they fail to specify manipulable variables. As an alternative to social-cognitive theories, this paper evaluates the usefulness of a behavior-analytic approach to stem the spread of HIV infection. It examines some of the philosophical differences underlying cognitive and behavioral approaches that are embedded in mechanistic versus functional contextualistic principles. It explores the theoretical and practical implications of adopting either predicting and explaining behavior or predicting and influencing behavior as the goals of science. To illustrate the value of adopting the goal of prediction and influence, behavior-analytic research on the social context of risky sexual behavior in adolescents is described. The paper argues that in order to alter the future course of the AIDS epidemic, the behavioral sciences must move beyond describing cognitive and attitudinal correlates of risky behavior and focus on the social context of the behavior of individuals. In addition, population-wide changes in AIDS-risk behavior can be accomplished only if research focuses on how to influence larger social systems, including the media, school systems, and community organizations. PMID:22478197

Prediction of attendance at fitness center: a comparison between the theory of planned behavior, the social cognitive theory, and the physical activity maintenance theory

PubMed Central

Jekauc, Darko; Völkle, Manuel; Wagner, Matthias O.; Mess, Filip; Reiner, Miriam; Renner, Britta

2015-01-01

In the processes of physical activity (PA) maintenance specific predictors are effective, which differ from other stages of PA development. Recently, Physical Activity Maintenance Theory (PAMT) was specifically developed for prediction of PA maintenance. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictability of the future behavior by the PAMT and compare it with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Social Cognitive Theory (SCT). Participation rate in a fitness center was observed for 101 college students (53 female) aged between 19 and 32 years (M = 23.6; SD = 2.9) over 20 weeks using a magnetic card. In order to predict the pattern of participation TPB, SCT and PAMT were used. A latent class zero-inflated Poisson growth curve analysis identified two participation patterns: regular attenders and intermittent exercisers. SCT showed the highest predictive power followed by PAMT and TPB. Impeding aspects as life stress and barriers were the strongest predictors suggesting that overcoming barriers might be an important aspect for working out on a regular basis. Self-efficacy, perceived behavioral control, and social support could also significantly differentiate between the participation patterns. PMID:25717313

A Behavioral Economic Reward Index Predicts Drinking Resolutions: Moderation Re-visited and Compared with Other Outcomes

PubMed Central

Tucker, Jalie A.; Roth, David L.; Vignolo, Mary J.; Westfall, Andrew O.

2014-01-01

Data were pooled from three studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1-2 year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes compared to abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced pre-resolution monetary allocations between short- and longer-term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (OR) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this “Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure” index predicted higher rates of both abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p < .0001) compared to moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of pre-resolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation. PMID:19309182

Neurophysiology of Reward-Guided Behavior: Correlates Related to Predictions, Value, Motivation, Errors, Attention, and Action.

PubMed

Bissonette, Gregory B; Roesch, Matthew R

2016-01-01

Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum.

Neurophysiology of Reward-Guided Behavior: Correlates Related to Predictions, Value, Motivation, Errors, Attention, and Action

PubMed Central

Roesch, Matthew R.

2017-01-01

Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum. PMID:26276036

Psychological and Behavioral Risk Factors for Obesity Onset in Adolescent Girls: A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stice, Eric; Presnell, Katherine; Shaw, Heather; Rohde, Paul

2005-01-01

Because little is known about risk factors for obesity, the authors tested whether certain psychological and behavioral variables predicted future onset of obesity. The authors used data from a prospective study of 496 adolescent girls who completed a baseline assessment at age 11-15 years and 4 annual follow-ups. Self-reported dietary restraint,…

Factors affecting Israeli women's decision whether to donate cord blood.

PubMed

Ben Natan, Merav; Grinberg, Keren; Galula, Sharon; Biton, Michal

2014-01-01

To examine whether Israeli mothers' intention to donate cord blood can be predicted using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). A descriptive correlation study, employing the TPB. A questionnaire constructed based on a literature review of research on cord blood donation and on the TPB was administered to 207 Israeli women of childbearing age. Behavioral attitudes (women's total appraisal of cord blood donation), subjective norms (women's perception of the opinion of significant others regarding the specific behavior), and perceived behavioral control (women's total appraisal of their control of the behavior and perceived ease or difficulty of cord blood donation) were found to predict women's intention to donate cord blood. Since behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control can predict cord blood donations, it is important for the medical and nursing staff to understand and use these concepts if they hope to obtain women's cooperation concerning cord blood donation. Nurses should receive education on the subject of cord blood donation, increasing their awareness. It is possible that this could lead to a rise in such donations in the future. Both mothers and fathers should be consulted about the option of donating cord blood.

Time orientation and eating behavior: Unhealthy eaters consider immediate consequences, while healthy eaters focus on future health.

PubMed

Dassen, Fania C M; Houben, Katrijn; Jansen, Anita

2015-08-01

Time orientation could play an important role in eating behavior. The current study investigated whether eating behavior is associated with the Consideration of Future Consequences scale (CFC). Specifically, it was examined whether unhealthy eaters consider the future less and are more concerned with immediate gratification. A related measure of time orientation is delay discounting, a process by which a reinforcer becomes less valuable when considered later in time. Recent research argues that the relation between time orientation and health behaviors is measured best at a behavior-specific level. In the current study, we explored the relationships between CFC and discount rate - both general and food-specific - and their influence on healthy eating. Participants with ages 18 to 60 (N = 152; final sample N = 146) filled in an online questionnaire consisting of the CFC, a food-specific version of the CFC (CFC-food), the Monetary Choice Questionnaire (MCQ) and an adapted MCQ version with snack food as a reinforcer. Self-reported healthy eating was positively related to the future subscale (r = .48, p < .001) and negatively to the immediate subscale of the CFC-food (r = -.43, p < .001). The general CFC and discount rate (MCQ and MCQ-snack) were not related to healthy eating (all p > .05). In order to predict behavior, measurements of time orientation should thus be tailored to the behavior of interest. Based on current results, shifting one's concern from the immediate consequences of eating to a more future-oriented perspective may present an interesting target for future interventions aimed at promoting healthy eating and reducing overweight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of normality of chaotic systems including prediction and detection of anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engler, Joseph John

Accurate prediction and control pervades domains such as engineering, physics, chemistry, and biology. Often, it is discovered that the systems under consideration cannot be well represented by linear, periodic nor random data. It has been shown that these systems exhibit deterministic chaos behavior. Deterministic chaos describes systems which are governed by deterministic rules but whose data appear to be random or quasi-periodic distributions. Deterministically chaotic systems characteristically exhibit sensitive dependence upon initial conditions manifested through rapid divergence of states initially close to one another. Due to this characterization, it has been deemed impossible to accurately predict future states of these systems for longer time scales. Fortunately, the deterministic nature of these systems allows for accurate short term predictions, given the dynamics of the system are well understood. This fact has been exploited in the research community and has resulted in various algorithms for short term predictions. Detection of normality in deterministically chaotic systems is critical in understanding the system sufficiently to able to predict future states. Due to the sensitivity to initial conditions, the detection of normal operational states for a deterministically chaotic system can be challenging. The addition of small perturbations to the system, which may result in bifurcation of the normal states, further complicates the problem. The detection of anomalies and prediction of future states of the chaotic system allows for greater understanding of these systems. The goal of this research is to produce methodologies for determining states of normality for deterministically chaotic systems, detection of anomalous behavior, and the more accurate prediction of future states of the system. Additionally, the ability to detect subtle system state changes is discussed. The dissertation addresses these goals by proposing new representational techniques and novel prediction methodologies. The value and efficiency of these methods are explored in various case studies. Presented is an overview of chaotic systems with examples taken from the real world. A representation schema for rapid understanding of the various states of deterministically chaotic systems is presented. This schema is then used to detect anomalies and system state changes. Additionally, a novel prediction methodology which utilizes Lyapunov exponents to facilitate longer term prediction accuracy is presented and compared with other nonlinear prediction methodologies. These novel methodologies are then demonstrated on applications such as wind energy, cyber security and classification of social networks.

Sleep and youth suicidal behavior: a neglected field.

PubMed

Liu, Xianchen; Buysse, Daniel J

2006-05-01

Sleep undergoes substantial changes during adolescence and suicide risk begins to increase during this period as well. This review focuses on recent literature on the relationship between sleep and suicidal behavior and proposes directions for future research. Adolescent sleep is characterized by widespread sleep restriction, irregular sleep schedules, daytime sleepiness, and elevated risk for sleep disturbances. More research on adolescent sleep and psychosocial impairment, psychiatric disorders, and suicidal behavior has been conducted. Suicidal psychiatric patients had more sleep disturbances including insomnia, hypersomnia, or nightmares than nonsuicidal patients. Shorter rapid eye movement latency and increased rapid eye movement activity have been noted to be a marker of suicidality in psychiatric patients. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that insomnia, nightmares, and sleep insufficiency are associated with elevated risk for suicide. Although the link between insomnia and suicidal behavior appears to be mediated by depression, existing data suggest an independent predictive role of nightmares in future suicidal behavior. Sleep loss or disturbances are likely to signal an increased risk of future suicidal action in adolescents. Large-scale prospective studies and neurobiological studies are needed for a better understanding of the complex relationship between sleep, psychopathology, and youth suicidal behavior.

The Interactive Role of Emotional Intelligence, Attachment Style, and Resilience in the Prediction of Time Perception in Doctoral Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Precin, Patricia Jean

2014-01-01

The perception of time (the use of temporal categories to conceptualize experiences) affects human behavior. Students' time perspective predicts academic outcomes: those with future orientations tend to have better academic outcomes than those with past or present, according to Zimbardo and Boyd's psychology of time model, and may contribute to…

Exploring Factors that Predict Preservice Teachers' Intentions to Use Web 2.0 Technologies Using Decomposed Theory of Planned Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadaf, Ayesha; Newby, Timothy J.; Ertmer, Peggy A.

2013-01-01

This study investigated factors that predict preservice teachers' intentions to use Web 2.0 technologies in their future classrooms. The researchers used a mixed-methods research design and collected qualitative interview data (n = 7) to triangulate quantitative survey data (n = 286). Results indicate that positive attitudes and perceptions of…

Introduction to the special issue on the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.A.; Arrowsmith, J.R.

2006-01-01

The 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, a long-anticipated event on the San Andreas fault, is the world's best recorded earthquake to date, with state-of-the-art data obtained from geologic, geodetic, seismic, magnetic, and electrical field networks. This has allowed the preearthquake and postearthquake states of the San Andreas fault in this region to be analyzed in detail. Analyses of these data provide views into the San Andreas fault that show a complex geologic history, fault geometry, rheology, and response of the nearby region to the earthquake-induced ground movement. Although aspects of San Andreas fault zone behavior in the Parkfield region can be modeled simply over geological time frames, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake indicate that predicting the fine details of future earthquakes is still a challenge. Instead of a deterministic approach, forecasting future damaging behavior, such as that caused by strong ground motions, will likely continue to require probabilistic methods. However, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have provided ample data to understand most of what did occur in 2004, culminating in significant scientific advances.

Using Formal Grammars to Predict I/O Behaviors in HPC: The Omnisc'IO Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorier, Matthieu; Ibrahim, Shadi; Antoniu, Gabriel

2016-08-01

The increasing gap between the computation performance of post-petascale machines and the performance of their I/O subsystem has motivated many I/O optimizations including prefetching, caching, and scheduling. In order to further improve these techniques, modeling and predicting spatial and temporal I/O patterns of HPC applications as they run has become crucial. In this paper we present Omnisc'IO, an approach that builds a grammar-based model of the I/O behavior of HPC applications and uses it to predict when future I/O operations will occur, and where and how much data will be accessed. To infer grammars, Omnisc'IO is based on StarSequitur, amore » novel algorithm extending Nevill-Manning's Sequitur algorithm. Omnisc'IO is transparently integrated into the POSIX and MPI I/O stacks and does not require any modification in applications or higher-level I/O libraries. It works without any prior knowledge of the application and converges to accurate predictions of any N future I/O operations within a couple of iterations. Its implementation is efficient in both computation time and memory footprint.« less

Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.

1986-01-01

Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

Thermodynamics of complexity and pattern manipulation.

PubMed

Garner, Andrew J P; Thompson, Jayne; Vedral, Vlatko; Gu, Mile

2017-04-01

Many organisms capitalize on their ability to predict the environment to maximize available free energy and reinvest this energy to create new complex structures. This functionality relies on the manipulation of patterns-temporally ordered sequences of data. Here, we propose a framework to describe pattern manipulators-devices that convert thermodynamic work to patterns or vice versa-and use them to build a "pattern engine" that facilitates a thermodynamic cycle of pattern creation and consumption. We show that the least heat dissipation is achieved by the provably simplest devices, the ones that exhibit desired operational behavior while maintaining the least internal memory. We derive the ultimate limits of this heat dissipation and show that it is generally nonzero and connected with the pattern's intrinsic crypticity-a complexity theoretic quantity that captures the puzzling difference between the amount of information the pattern's past behavior reveals about its future and the amount one needs to communicate about this past to optimally predict the future.

Thermodynamics of complexity and pattern manipulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Andrew J. P.; Thompson, Jayne; Vedral, Vlatko; Gu, Mile

2017-04-01

Many organisms capitalize on their ability to predict the environment to maximize available free energy and reinvest this energy to create new complex structures. This functionality relies on the manipulation of patterns—temporally ordered sequences of data. Here, we propose a framework to describe pattern manipulators—devices that convert thermodynamic work to patterns or vice versa—and use them to build a "pattern engine" that facilitates a thermodynamic cycle of pattern creation and consumption. We show that the least heat dissipation is achieved by the provably simplest devices, the ones that exhibit desired operational behavior while maintaining the least internal memory. We derive the ultimate limits of this heat dissipation and show that it is generally nonzero and connected with the pattern's intrinsic crypticity—a complexity theoretic quantity that captures the puzzling difference between the amount of information the pattern's past behavior reveals about its future and the amount one needs to communicate about this past to optimally predict the future.

Perceived parenting dimensions and identity styles: exploring the socialization of adolescents' processing of identity-relevant information.

PubMed

Smits, Ilse; Soenens, Bart; Luyckx, Koen; Duriez, Bart; Berzonsky, Michael; Goossens, Luc

2008-04-01

This study examined the relationships between crucial dimensions of perceived parenting (support, behavioral control, and psychological control) and the three identity styles defined by Berzonsky [Berzonsky, M. D. (1990). Self-construction over the life span: A process perspective on identity formation. Advances in Personal Construct Psychology, 1, 155-186.]. Each identity style was hypothesized to relate to a specific pattern of perceived parenting dimensions. Hypotheses were examined in a sample of middle and late adolescents (n=674). An information-oriented style was positively predicted by parental support. Contrary to expectations, however, an information-oriented style was also positively predicted by psychological control. A normative identity style was positively predicted by support and behavioral control. In line with expectations, a diffuse-avoidant identity style was positively predicted by psychological control and negatively by maternal (but not paternal) behavioral control. Findings are discussed in light of the literature on the socialization of identity formation and directions for future research are outlined.

Artificial neural network modeling using clinical and knowledge independent variables predicts salt intake reduction behavior

PubMed Central

Isma’eel, Hussain A.; Sakr, George E.; Almedawar, Mohamad M.; Fathallah, Jihan; Garabedian, Torkom; Eddine, Savo Bou Zein

2015-01-01

Background High dietary salt intake is directly linked to hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Predicting behaviors regarding salt intake habits is vital to guide interventions and increase their effectiveness. We aim to compare the accuracy of an artificial neural network (ANN) based tool that predicts behavior from key knowledge questions along with clinical data in a high cardiovascular risk cohort relative to the least square models (LSM) method. Methods We collected knowledge, attitude and behavior data on 115 patients. A behavior score was calculated to classify patients’ behavior towards reducing salt intake. Accuracy comparison between ANN and regression analysis was calculated using the bootstrap technique with 200 iterations. Results Starting from a 69-item questionnaire, a reduced model was developed and included eight knowledge items found to result in the highest accuracy of 62% CI (58-67%). The best prediction accuracy in the full and reduced models was attained by ANN at 66% and 62%, respectively, compared to full and reduced LSM at 40% and 34%, respectively. The average relative increase in accuracy over all in the full and reduced models is 82% and 102%, respectively. Conclusions Using ANN modeling, we can predict salt reduction behaviors with 66% accuracy. The statistical model has been implemented in an online calculator and can be used in clinics to estimate the patient’s behavior. This will help implementation in future research to further prove clinical utility of this tool to guide therapeutic salt reduction interventions in high cardiovascular risk individuals. PMID:26090333

Aggressive behavior and change in salivary testosterone concentrations predict willingness to engage in a competitive task.

PubMed

Carré, Justin M; McCormick, Cheryl M

2008-08-01

The current study investigated relationships among aggressive behavior, change in salivary testosterone concentrations, and willingness to engage in a competitive task. Thirty-eight male participants provided saliva samples before and after performing the Point Subtraction Aggression Paradigm (a laboratory measure that provides opportunity for aggressive and defensive behavior while working for reward; all three involve pressing specific response keys). Baseline testosterone concentrations were not associated with aggressive responding. However, aggressive responding (but not point reward or point protection responding) predicted the pre- to post-PSAP change in testosterone: Those with the highest aggressive responding had the largest percent increase in testosterone concentrations. Together, aggressive responding and change in testosterone predicted willingness to compete following the PSAP. Controlling for aggression, men who showed a rise in testosterone were more likely to choose to compete again (p=0.03) and controlling for testosterone change, men who showed the highest level of aggressive responding were more likely to choose the non-competitive task (p=0.02). These results indicate that situation-specific aggressive behavior and testosterone responsiveness are functionally relevant predictors of future social behavior.

Towards an Effective Health Interventions Design: An Extension of the Health Belief Model

PubMed Central

Orji, Rita; Vassileva, Julita; Mandryk, Regan

2012-01-01

Introduction The recent years have witnessed a continuous increase in lifestyle related health challenges around the world. As a result, researchers and health practitioners have focused on promoting healthy behavior using various behavior change interventions. The designs of most of these interventions are informed by health behavior models and theories adapted from various disciplines. Several health behavior theories have been used to inform health intervention designs, such as the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Transtheoretical Model, and the Health Belief Model (HBM). However, the Health Belief Model (HBM), developed in the 1950s to investigate why people fail to undertake preventive health measures, remains one of the most widely employed theories of health behavior. However, the effectiveness of this model is limited. The first limitation is the low predictive capacity (R2 < 0.21 on average) of existing HBM’s variables coupled with the small effect size of individual variables. The second is lack of clear rules of combination and relationship between the individual variables. In this paper, we propose a solution that aims at addressing these limitations as follows: (1) we extended the Health Belief Model by introducing four new variables: Self-identity, Perceived Importance, Consideration of Future Consequences, and Concern for Appearance as possible determinants of healthy behavior. (2) We exhaustively explored the relationships/interactions between the HBM variables and their effect size. (3) We tested the validity of both our proposed extended model and the original HBM on healthy eating behavior. Finally, we compared the predictive capacity of the original HBM model and our extended model. Methods: To achieve the objective of this paper, we conducted a quantitative study of 576 participants’ eating behavior. Data for this study were collected over a period of one year (from August 2011 to August 2012). The questionnaire consisted of validated scales assessing the HBM determinants – perceived benefit, barrier, susceptibility, severity, cue to action, and self-efficacy – using 7-point Likert scale. We also assessed other health determinants such as consideration of future consequences, self-identity, concern for appearance and perceived importance. To analyses our data, we employed factor analysis and Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to exhaustively explore the interaction/relationship between the determinants and healthy eating behavior. We tested for the validity of both our proposed extended model and the original HBM on healthy eating behavior. Finally, we compared the predictive capacity of the original HBM model and our extended model and investigated possible mediating effects. Results: The results show that the three newly added determinants are better predictors of healthy behavior. Our extended HBM model lead to approximately 78% increase (from 40 to 71%) in predictive capacity compared to the old model. This shows the suitability of our extended HBM for use in predicting healthy behavior and in informing health intervention design. The results from examining possible relationships between the determinants in our model lead to an interesting discovery of some mediating relationships between the HBM’s determinants, therefore, shedding light on some possible combinations of determinants that could be employed by intervention designers to increase the effectiveness of their design. Conclusion: Consideration of future consequences, self-identity, concern for appearance, perceived importance, self-efficacy, perceived susceptibility are significant determinants of healthy eating behavior that can be manipulated by healthy eating intervention design. Most importantly, the result from our model established the existence of some mediating relationships among the determinants. The knowledge of both the direct and indirect relationships sheds some light on the possible combination rules. PMID:23569653

A Factor Analytic Model of Drug-Related Behavior in Adolescence and Its Impact on Arrests at Multiple Stages of the Life Course

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objectives Recognizing the inherent variability of drug-related behaviors, this study develops an empirically-driven and holistic model of drug-related behavior during adolescence using factor analysis to simultaneously model multiple drug behaviors. Methods The factor analytic model uncovers latent dimensions of drug-related behaviors, rather than patterns of individuals. These latent dimensions are treated as empirical typologies which are then used to predict an individual’s number of arrests accrued at multiple phases of the life course. The data are robust enough to simultaneously capture drug behavior measures typically considered in isolation in the literature, and to allow for behavior to change and evolve over the period of adolescence. Results Results show that factor analysis is capable of developing highly descriptive patterns of drug offending, and that these patterns have great utility in predicting arrests. Results further demonstrate that while drug behavior patterns are predictive of arrests at the end of adolescence for both males and females, the impacts on arrests are longer lasting for females. Conclusions The various facets of drug behaviors have been a long-time concern of criminological research. However, the ability to model multiple behaviors simultaneously is often constrained by data that do not measure the constructs fully. Factor analysis is shown to be a useful technique for modeling adolescent drug involvement patterns in a way that accounts for the multitude and variability of possible behaviors, and in predicting future negative life outcomes, such as arrests. PMID:28435183

Illness severity and self-efficacy as course predictors of DSM-IV alcohol dependence in a multisite clinical sample.

PubMed

Langenbucher, J; Sulesund, D; Chung, T; Morgenstern, J

1996-01-01

Illness severity and self-efficacy are two constructs of growing interest as predictors of clinical response in alcoholism. Using alternative measures of illness severity (DSM-IV symptom count, Alcohol Dependence Scale, and Addiction Severity Index) and self-efficacy (brief version of the Situational Confidence Questionnaire) rigorously controlled for theoretically important background variables, we studied their unique contribution to multiple indices of relapse, relapse latency, and use of alternative coping behaviors in a large, heterogeneous clinical sample. The Alcohol Dependence Scale contributed to the prediction of 4 of 5 relapse indicators. The SCQ failed to predict relapse behavior or its precursor, coping response. The findings emphasize the predictive validity of severity of dependence as a course specifier and underline the need for more sensitive and externally valid measures of cognitive processes such as self-efficacy for application in future studies of posttreatment behavior.

A Study on the Application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) Model on Rational Drug Use Behavior among Second-Level Hospital Outpatients in Anhui, China.

PubMed

Bian, Cheng; Xu, Shuman; Wang, Heng; Li, Niannian; Wu, Jingya; Zhao, Yunwu; Li, Peng; Lu, Hua

2015-01-01

The high prevalence of risky irrational drug use behaviors mean that outpatients face high risks of drug resistance and even death. This study represents the first application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model on rational drug use behavior among second-level hospital outpatients from three prefecture-level cities in Anhui, China. Using the IMB model, our study examined predictors of rational drug use behavior and determined the associations between the model constructs. This study was conducted with a sample of 1,214 outpatients aged 18 years and older in Anhui second-level hospitals and applied the structural equation model (SEM) to test predictive relations among the IMB model variables related to rational drug use behavior. Age, information and motivation had significant direct effects on rational drug use behavior. Behavioral skills as an intermediate variable also significantly predicted more rational drug use behavior. Female gender, higher educational level, more information and more motivation predicted more behavioral skills. In addition, there were significant indirect impacts on rational drug use behavior mediated through behavioral skills. The IMB-based model explained the relationships between the constructs and rational drug use behavior of outpatients in detail, and it suggests that future interventions among second-level hospital outpatients should consider demographic characteristics and should focus on improving motivation and behavioral skills in addition to the publicity of knowledge.

A Study on the Application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) Model on Rational Drug Use Behavior among Second-Level Hospital Outpatients in Anhui, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Heng; Li, Niannian; Wu, Jingya; Zhao, Yunwu; Li, Peng; Lu, Hua

2015-01-01

Background The high prevalence of risky irrational drug use behaviors mean that outpatients face high risks of drug resistance and even death. This study represents the first application of the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model on rational drug use behavior among second-level hospital outpatients from three prefecture-level cities in Anhui, China. Using the IMB model, our study examined predictors of rational drug use behavior and determined the associations between the model constructs. Methods This study was conducted with a sample of 1,214 outpatients aged 18 years and older in Anhui second-level hospitals and applied the structural equation model (SEM) to test predictive relations among the IMB model variables related to rational drug use behavior. Results Age, information and motivation had significant direct effects on rational drug use behavior. Behavioral skills as an intermediate variable also significantly predicted more rational drug use behavior. Female gender, higher educational level, more information and more motivation predicted more behavioral skills. In addition, there were significant indirect impacts on rational drug use behavior mediated through behavioral skills. Conclusions The IMB-based model explained the relationships between the constructs and rational drug use behavior of outpatients in detail, and it suggests that future interventions among second-level hospital outpatients should consider demographic characteristics and should focus on improving motivation and behavioral skills in addition to the publicity of knowledge. PMID:26275301

Resting-state regional cerebral blood flow during adolescence: associations with initiation of substance use and prediction of future use disorders.

PubMed

Ramage, Amy E; Lin, Ai-Ling; Olvera, Rene L; Fox, Peter T; Williamson, Douglas E

2015-04-01

Adolescence is a period of developmental flux when brain systems are vulnerable to influences of early substance use, which in turn relays increased risk for substance use disorders. Our study intent was to assess adolescent regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) as it relates to current and future alcohol use. The aim was to identify brain-based predictors for initiation of alcohol use and onset of future substance use disorders. Quantitative rCBF was assessed in 100 adolescents (age 12-15). Prospective behavioral assessments were conducted annually over a three-year follow-up period to characterize onset of alcohol initiation, future drinking patterns and use disorders. Comparisons amongst use groups (i.e., current-, future-, and non-alcohol using adolescents) identified rCBF associated with initiation of alcohol use. Regression by future drinking patterns identified rCBF predictive of heavier drinking. Survival analysis determined whether or not baseline rCBF predicted later development of use disorders. Baseline rCBF was decreased to the parietal cortex and increased to mesolimbic regions in adolescents currently using alcohol as well as those who would use alcohol in the future. Higher baseline rCBF to the left fusiform gyrus and lower rCBF to the right inferior parietal cortex and left cerebellum was associated with future drinking patterns as well as predicted the onset of alcohol and substance use disorders in this cohort. Variations in resting rCBF to regions within reward and default mode or control networks appear to represent trait markers of alcohol use initiation and are predictive of future development of use disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting safe sex: Assessment of autoregressive and cross-lagged effects within the Theory of Planned Behavior.

PubMed

Eggers, Sander M; Taylor, Myra; Sathiparsad, Reshma; Bos, Arjan Er; de Vries, Hein

2015-11-01

Despite its popularity, few studies have assessed the temporal stability and cross-lagged effects of the Theory of Planned Behavior factors: Attitude, subjective norms and self-efficacy. For this study, 298 adolescent learners from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, filled out a Theory of Planned Behavior questionnaire on teenage pregnancy at baseline and after 6 months. Structural equation modeling showed that there were considerable cross-lagged effects between attitude and subjective norms. Temporal stability was moderate with test-retest correlations ranging from 0.37 to 0.51 and the model was able to predict intentions to have safe sex (R2 = 0.69) Implications for practice and future research are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Accounting for the Down syndrome advantage?

PubMed

Esbensen, Anna J; Seltzer, Marsha Mailick

2011-01-01

The authors examined factors that could explain the higher levels of psychosocial well being observed in past research in mothers of individuals with Down syndrome compared with mothers of individuals with other types of intellectual disabilities. The authors studied 155 mothers of adults with Down syndrome, contrasting factors that might validly account for the ?Down syndrome advantage? (behavioral phenotype) with those that have been portrayed in past research as artifactual (maternal age, social supports). The behavioral phenotype predicted less pessimism, more life satisfaction, and a better quality of the mother?child relationship. However, younger maternal age and fewer social supports, as well as the behavioral phenotype, predicted higher levels of caregiving burden. Implications for future research on families of individuals with Down syndrome are discussed.

Behavioral Competence as a Positive Youth Development Construct: A Conceptual Review

PubMed Central

Ma, Hing Keung

2012-01-01

Behavioral competence is delineated in terms of four parameters: (a) Moral and Social Knowledge, (b) Social Skills, (c) Positive Characters and Positive Attributes, and (d) Behavioral Decision Process and Action Taking. Since Ma's other papers in this special issue have already discussed the moral and social knowledge as well as the social skills associated in detail, this paper focuses on the last two parameters. It is hypothesized that the following twelve positive characters are highly related to behavioral competence: humanity, intelligence, courage, conscience, autonomy, respect, responsibility, naturalness, loyalty, humility, assertiveness, and perseverance. Large-scale empirical future studies should be conducted to substantiate the predictive validity of the complete set of these positive characters. The whole judgment and behavioral decision process is constructed based on the information processing approach. The direction of future studies should focus more on the complex input, central control, and output subprocesses and the interactions among these sub-processes. The understanding of the formation of behavior is crucial to whole-person education and positive youth development. PMID:22645434

Relationship Functioning Moderates the Association Between Depressive Symptoms and Life Stressors

PubMed Central

Trombello, Joseph M.; Schoebi, Dominik; Bradbury, Thomas N.

2017-01-01

Data from 172 newlywed couples were collected over the first 4 years of marriage to test how behaviors demonstrated during marital interactions moderate associations between depressive symptoms and subsequent life stressors. Depressive symptoms and behaviors coded from problem-solving and social support interactions were analyzed as predictors of nonmarital stressors that were interpersonal and dependent on the participant's actions. Behavioral codes were found to moderate 3 of 16 symptom-to-life event associations for husbands. Husbands' reports of more depressive symptoms predicted greater levels of stress when husbands' positive affect and hard negative affect during problem-solving were relatively infrequent and when wives made frequent displays of positive behaviors during husbands' support topics. These effects remained after controlling for marital satisfaction. For wives, behavioral moderators did not interact with depressive symptoms to predict changes in stress, but marital satisfaction consistently interacted with depressive symptoms to predict future stressors beyond interpersonal behaviors. Specifically, for wives, stress generation was more evident when relationship satisfaction was low than when it was high. Our results, though different for men and women, suggest that relationship functioning can alter associations between depressive symptoms and life stress in the early years of marriage. PMID:21355647

Ethnic differences in predictors of hearing protection behavior between Black and White workers.

PubMed

Hong, OiSaeng; Lusk, Sally L; Ronis, David L

2005-01-01

The purpose of the study is to determine whether there are ethnic differences in predictors of hearing protection behavior between Black and White workers. The Predictors of Use of Hearing Protection Model (PUHPM) derived from Pender's Health Promotion Model (Pender, 1987) was used as a conceptual model. A total of 2,119 (297 Blacks, 1,822 Whites) were included in the analysis. Internal consistency of instrument items was assessed using theta reliability estimates. Significant predictors of the use of hearing protective devices (HPDs) for Black and White workers and differences in predictors between the two groups were examined using multiple regression with interaction terms. Ethnic differences in scale or individual item scores were assessed using chi-square and t-test analyses. Different factors influenced hearing protection behavior among Black and White workers. The model was much less predictive of Blacks' hearing protection behavior than Whites' (R2 = .12 vs. .36). Since the PUHPM was not as effective in predicting hearing protection behavior for Blacks as for Whites, future studies are needed to expand the PUHPM through qualitative study and to develop culturally appropriate models to identify factors that better predict hearing protection behavior as a basis for developing effective interventions.

Prognostics and Health Monitoring: Application to Electric Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

As more and more autonomous electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in accurate prediction of remaining useful life of the systemssubsystems, specifically the electrical powertrain. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle.Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator either to the pilotautopilot for the electric vehicles which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life of the vehicle e.g. determine state-of-charge in batteries. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making.

Is extraordinary prosocial behavior more valuable than ordinary prosocial behavior?

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study examined how people evaluate ordinary and extraordinary prosocial behaviors, especially their predictions of the likelihood of future prosocial behaviors of ordinary and extraordinary prosocial actors (Study 1). Further, it examined the individual effects of ordinary and extraordinary prosocial behaviors of an actor on the evaluation of his/her trait by considering the cases where the actor engages in and does not engage in the other behavior (Study 2). Study 1 revealed that the likelihood of future prosocial behaviors of ordinary and extraordinary prosocial actors was perceived asymmetrically. Specifically, while the likelihood of ordinary prosocial actors to engage in ordinary prosocial behaviors was perceived as high, the same perception was not observed for extraordinary prosocial behaviors. On the other hand, extraordinary prosocial actors were perceived as highly likely to engage in both ordinary and extraordinary prosocial behaviors. Study 2 revealed that the evaluation of actors who engaged in extraordinary prosocial behaviors but not ordinary prosocial behaviors did not exceed the evaluation of actors who engaged in ordinary prosocial behaviors but not extraordinary prosocial behaviors. Additionally, the effect of extraordinary prosocial behaviors was more when the actor also engaged in ordinary prosocial behaviors. These results suggest that extraordinary prosocial actors are evaluated highly when they also engage in ordinary prosocial behaviors. PMID:29684088

Is extraordinary prosocial behavior more valuable than ordinary prosocial behavior?

PubMed

Futamura, Ikumi

2018-01-01

This study examined how people evaluate ordinary and extraordinary prosocial behaviors, especially their predictions of the likelihood of future prosocial behaviors of ordinary and extraordinary prosocial actors (Study 1). Further, it examined the individual effects of ordinary and extraordinary prosocial behaviors of an actor on the evaluation of his/her trait by considering the cases where the actor engages in and does not engage in the other behavior (Study 2). Study 1 revealed that the likelihood of future prosocial behaviors of ordinary and extraordinary prosocial actors was perceived asymmetrically. Specifically, while the likelihood of ordinary prosocial actors to engage in ordinary prosocial behaviors was perceived as high, the same perception was not observed for extraordinary prosocial behaviors. On the other hand, extraordinary prosocial actors were perceived as highly likely to engage in both ordinary and extraordinary prosocial behaviors. Study 2 revealed that the evaluation of actors who engaged in extraordinary prosocial behaviors but not ordinary prosocial behaviors did not exceed the evaluation of actors who engaged in ordinary prosocial behaviors but not extraordinary prosocial behaviors. Additionally, the effect of extraordinary prosocial behaviors was more when the actor also engaged in ordinary prosocial behaviors. These results suggest that extraordinary prosocial actors are evaluated highly when they also engage in ordinary prosocial behaviors.

A model of the human in a cognitive prediction task.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, W. B.

1973-01-01

The human decision maker's behavior when predicting future states of discrete linear dynamic systems driven by zero-mean Gaussian processes is modeled. The task is on a slow enough time scale that physiological constraints are insignificant compared with cognitive limitations. The model is basically a linear regression system identifier with a limited memory and noisy observations. Experimental data are presented and compared to the model.

Physiological Response to Reward and Extinction Predicts Alcohol, Marijuana, and Cigarette Use Two Years Later

PubMed Central

Derefinko, Karen J.; Eisenlohr-Moul, Tory A.; Peters, Jessica R.; Roberts, Walter; Walsh, Erin C.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.

2017-01-01

Background Physiological responses to reward and extinction are believed to represent the Behavioral Activation System (BAS) and Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) constructs of Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory and underlie externalizing behaviors, including substance use. However, little research has examined these relations directly. Methods We assessed individuals’ cardiac pre-ejection periods (PEP) and electrodermal responses (EDR) during reward and extinction trials through the “Number Elimination Game” paradigm. Responses represented BAS and BIS, respectively. We then examined whether these responses provided incremental utility in the prediction of future alcohol, marijuana, and cigarette use. Results Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression models were used to examine the predictive utility of physiological BAS and BIS responses above and beyond previous substance use. Physiological responses accounted for incremental variance over previous use. Low BAS responses during reward predicted frequency of alcohol use at year 3. Low BAS responses during reward and extinction and high BIS responses during extinction predicted frequency of marijuana use at year 3. For cigarette use, low BAS response during extinction predicted use at year 3. Conclusions These findings suggest that the constructs of Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, as assessed through physiology, contribute to the longitudinal maintenance of substance use. PMID:27306728

Stability and change: Stress responses and the shaping of behavioral phenotypes over the life span.

PubMed

Hennessy, Michael B; Kaiser, Sylvia; Tiedtke, Tobias; Sachser, Norbert

2015-01-01

In mammals, maternal signals conveyed via influences on hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) activity may shape behavior of the young to be better adapted for prevailing environmental conditions. However, the mother's influence extends beyond classic stress response systems. In guinea pigs, several hours (h) of separation from the mother activates not only the HPA axis, but also the innate immune system, which effects immediate behavioral change, as well as modifies behavioral responsiveness in the future. Moreover, the presence of the mother potently suppresses the behavioral consequences of this innate immune activation. These findings raise the possibility that long-term adaptive behavioral change can be mediated by the mother's influence on immune-related activity of her pups. Furthermore, the impact of social partners on physiological stress responses and their behavioral outcomes are not limited to the infantile period. A particularly crucial period for social development in male guinea pigs is that surrounding the attainment of sexual maturation. At this time, social interactions with adults can dramatically affect circulating cortisol concentrations and social behavior in ways that appear to prepare the male to best cope in its likely future social environment. Despite such multiple social influences on the behavior of guinea pigs at different ages, inter-individual differences in the magnitude of the cortisol response remain surprisingly stable over most of the life span. Together, it appears that throughout the life span, physiological stress responses may be regulated by social stimuli. These influences are hypothesized to adjust behavior for predicted environmental conditions. In addition, stable individual differences might provide a means of facilitating adaptation to less predictable conditions.

Reward-related neural activity and structure predict future substance use in dysregulated youth.

PubMed

Bertocci, M A; Bebko, G; Versace, A; Iyengar, S; Bonar, L; Forbes, E E; Almeida, J R C; Perlman, S B; Schirda, C; Travis, M J; Gill, M K; Diwadkar, V A; Sunshine, J L; Holland, S K; Kowatch, R A; Birmaher, B; Axelson, D A; Frazier, T W; Arnold, L E; Fristad, M A; Youngstrom, E A; Horwitz, S M; Findling, R L; Phillips, M L

2017-06-01

Identifying youth who may engage in future substance use could facilitate early identification of substance use disorder vulnerability. We aimed to identify biomarkers that predicted future substance use in psychiatrically un-well youth. LASSO regression for variable selection was used to predict substance use 24.3 months after neuroimaging assessment in 73 behaviorally and emotionally dysregulated youth aged 13.9 (s.d. = 2.0) years, 30 female, from three clinical sites in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study. Predictor variables included neural activity during a reward task, cortical thickness, and clinical and demographic variables. Future substance use was associated with higher left middle prefrontal cortex activity, lower left ventral anterior insula activity, thicker caudal anterior cingulate cortex, higher depression and lower mania scores, not using antipsychotic medication, more parental stress, older age. This combination of variables explained 60.4% of the variance in future substance use, and accurately classified 83.6%. These variables explained a large proportion of the variance, were useful classifiers of future substance use, and showed the value of combining multiple domains to provide a comprehensive understanding of substance use development. This may be a step toward identifying neural measures that can identify future substance use disorder risk, and act as targets for therapeutic interventions.

The short-run impact of gas prices on toll road use.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

"One of the primary functions of transportation planning is to predict future travel : behavior. Using estimated travel patterns, planners can then help decision makers : select the array of projects that will best suit the needs of their community. ...

Time perspective and environmental engagement: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L; Wilson, Jessie; Diniz, Pollyane

2012-01-01

Environmental issues entail both a social conflict (private vs. public interests) and a temporal conflict (short- vs. long-term interests). This paper focuses on the role temporal concerns play in influencing environmental engagement by quantitatively integrating results of studies that assessed the associations between time perspective and proenvironmental attitudes and behaviors. The meta-analysis included a total of 19 independent samples and 6,301 participants from seven countries (Australia, Brazil, Germany, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, and the United States). Results showed that the associations between time perspective and proenvironmental behaviors were higher than those for proenvironmental attitudes. Supporting predictions, the associations between future time perspective and proenvironmental behaviors were strong and nontrivial compared to those for the combined past-present time perspective. The findings indicate that future time perspective seems to play an important role in influencing individuals' attitudes and behaviors towards the environment. Implications of the findings for theory and practice are discussed.

Leaving an Abusive Dating Relationship: A Prospective Analysis of the Investment Model and Theory of Planned Behavior.

PubMed

Edwards, Katie M; Gidycz, Christine A; Murphy, Megan J

2015-10-01

The purpose of the current study was to build on the existing literature to better understand young women's leaving processes in abusive dating relationships using a prospective design. Two social psychological models-the investment model and theory of planned behavior-were tested. According to the investment model, relationship continuation is predicted by commitment, which is a function of investment, satisfaction, and low quality of alternatives. The theory of planned behavior asserts that a specific behavior is predicted by an individual's intention to use a behavior, which is a function of the individual's attitudes toward the behavior, the subjective norms toward the behavior, and the individual's perceived behavioral control over the behavior. College women (N = 169 young women in abusive relatinships) completed surveys at two time points, approximately 4 months apart, to assess initially for the presence of intimate partner violence (IPV) in a current relationship and investment model and theory of planned behavior variables; the purpose of the 4-month follow-up session was to determine if women had remained in or terminated their abusive relationship. Path analytic results demonstrated that both the theory of planned behavior and investment models were good fits to the data in prospectively predicting abused women's stay/leave decisions. However, the theory of planned behavior was a better fit to the data than the investment model. Implications for future research and intervention are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

An examination of the factors affecting people's participation in future health examinations based on community health exam interventions.

PubMed

Tu, Shih-Kai; Liao, Hung-En

2014-01-01

Community-based intervention health examinations were implemented at a health care facility to comply with the government's primary health care promotion policy. The theory of planned behavior model was applied to examine the effect that community-based health examinations had on people's health concepts regarding seeking future health examinations. The research participants were individuals who had received a health examination provided at two branches of a hospital in central Taiwan in 2012. The hospital's two branches held a total of 14 free community-based health examination sessions. The hospital provided health examination equipment and staff to perform health examinations during public holidays. We conducted an exploratory questionnaire survey to collect data and implemented cross-sectional research based on anonymous self-ratings to examine the public's intention to receive future community-based or hospital-based health examinations. Including of 807 valid questionnaires, accounting for 89.4% of the total number of questionnaires distributed. The correlation coefficients of the second-order structural model indicate that attitudes positively predict behavioral intentions (γ = .66, p < .05), and subjective norms also positively predict behavioral intentions (γ = .66, p < .01). By contrast, perceived behavioral control has no significant relationship with behavioral intentions (γ = -.71, p > .05). The results of the first-order structural model indicated that the second-order constructs had a high explanatory power for the first-order constructs. People's health concepts regarding health examinations and their desire to continue receiving health examinations must be considered when promoting health examinations in the community. Regarding hospital management and the government's implementation of primary health care, health examination services should address people's medical needs to increase coverage and participation rates and reduce the waste of medical resources.

Preschool life skills: Recent advancements and future directions.

PubMed

Fahmie, Tara A; Luczynski, Kevin C

2018-01-01

Over the past decade, researchers have replicated and extended research on the preschool life skills (PLS) program developed by Hanley, Heal, Tiger, and Ingvarsson (2007). This review summarizes recent research with respect to maximizing skill acquisition, improving generality, evaluating feasibility and acceptability, and testing predictions of the initial PLS study. For each area, we suggest directions for future research. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Time perspective and weight management behaviors in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes: a mediational analysis.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Cheng, Alice Y

2012-12-01

The primary objective of the current study was to examine the extent to which domain-specific time perspective predicts weight management behaviors (dietary behavior and physical activity) among those newly diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes. A secondary objective was to test potential mediators of the hypothesized effect (behavioral intention, self-efficacy and control beliefs). A total of 204 adults newly diagnosed (≤6 months) with Type 2 diabetes participated in the study, which included a baseline assessment of domain-general and domain-specific time perspective, as well as strength of intention to perform two weight-management behaviors (dietary choice and physical activity); both weight-management behaviors were assessed again at 6 month follow-up. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed a prospective association between domain-specific time perspective and uptake of weight management behaviors. Individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM possessing a future-oriented time perspective reported making less frequent fatty food choices and greater increases in physical activity over the 6-month follow-up interval. These effects were selectively mediated by intention strength, and not competing social cognitive variables. For both behaviors, the total effects and meditational models were robust to adjustments for demographics, body composition and disease variables. A future-oriented time perspective is prospectively associated with superior uptake of weight management behaviors among those with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes. The facilitating effect of future-oriented thinking appears to occur via enhanced strength of intentions to perform weight management behaviors.

Aggressive behavior of the male parent predicts brood sex ratio in a songbird

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szász, Eszter; Garamszegi, László Zsolt; Hegyi, Gergely; Szöllősi, Eszter; Markó, Gábor; Török, János; Rosivall, Balázs

2014-08-01

Brood sex ratio is often affected by parental or environmental quality, presumably in an adaptive manner that is the sex that confers higher fitness benefits to the mother is overproduced. So far, studies on the role of parental quality have focused on parental morphology and attractiveness. However, another aspect, the partner's behavioral characteristics, may also be expected to play a role in brood sex ratio adjustment. To test this hypothesis, we investigated whether the proportion of sons in the brood is predicted by the level of territorial aggression displayed by the father, in the collared flycatcher ( Ficedula albicollis). The proportion of sons in the brood was higher in early broods and increased with paternal tarsus length. When controlling for breeding date and body size, we found a higher proportion of sons in the brood of less aggressive fathers. Male nestlings are more sensitive to the rearing environment, and the behavior of courting males may often be used by females to assess their future parental activity. Therefore, adjusting brood sex ratio to the level of male aggression could be adaptive. Our results indicate that the behavior of the partner could indeed be a significant determinant in brood sex ratio adjustment, which should not be overlooked in future studies.

Action planning as predictor of health protective and health risk behavior: an investigation of fruit and snack consumption

PubMed Central

van Osch, Liesbeth; Beenackers, Mariëlle; Reubsaet, Astrid; Lechner, Lilian; Candel, Math; de Vries, Hein

2009-01-01

Background Large discrepancies between people's intention to eat a healthy diet and actual dietary behavior indicate that motivation is not a sufficient instigator for healthy behavior. Research efforts to decrease this 'intention - behavior gap' have centered on aspects of self-regulation, most importantly self-regulatory planning. Most studies on the impact of self-regulatory planning in health and dietary behavior focus on the promotion of health protective behaviors. This study investigates and compares the predictive value of action planning in health protective behavior and the restriction of health risk behavior. Methods Two longitudinal observational studies were performed simultaneously, one focusing on fruit consumption (N = 572) and one on high-caloric snack consumption (N = 585) in Dutch adults. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate and compare the predictive value of action planning in both behaviors, correcting for demographics and the influence of motivational factors and past behavior. The nature of the influence of action planning was investigated by testing mediating and moderating effects. Results Action planning was a significant predictor of fruit consumption and restricted snack consumption beyond the influence of motivational factors and past behavior. The strength of the predictive value of action planning did not differ between the two behaviors. Evidence for mediation of the intention - behavior relationship was found for both behaviors. Positive moderating effects of action planning were demonstrated for fruit consumption, indicating that individuals who report high levels of action planning are significantly more likely to translate their intentions into actual behavior. Conclusion The results indicate that the planning of specific preparatory actions predicts the performance of healthy dietary behavior and support the application of self-regulatory planning in both health protective and health risk behaviors. Future interventions in dietary modification may turn these findings to advantage by incorporating one common planning protocol to increase the likelihood that good intentions are translated into healthy dietary behavior. PMID:19825172

Beliefs and Intentions for Skin Protection and Exposure

PubMed Central

Heckman, Carolyn J.; Manne, Sharon L.; Kloss, Jacqueline D.; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Collins, Bradley; Lessin, Stuart R.

2010-01-01

Objectives To evaluate Fishbein’s Integrative Model in predicting young adults’ skin protection, sun exposure, and indoor tanning intentions. Methods 212 participants completed an online survey. Results Damage distress, self-efficacy, and perceived control accounted for 34% of the variance in skin protection intentions. Outcome beliefs and low self-efficacy for sun avoidance accounted for 25% of the variance in sun exposure intentions. Perceived damage, outcome evaluation, norms, and indoor tanning prototype accounted for 32% of the variance in indoor tanning intentions. Conclusions Future research should investigate whether these variables predict exposure and protection behaviors and whether intervening can reduce young adults’ skin cancer risk behaviors. PMID:22251761

Parent–Child Injury Prevention Conversations Following a Trip to the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Plumert, Jodie M.; Peterson, Carole

2016-01-01

Objectives The goal of the study was to examine how parents use conversation to promote the internalization of safety values after their child has been seriously injured. Methods Parent interviews detailing postinjury conversations were coded for strategies mentioned to prevent injuries in the future and information about circumstances surrounding the injury. Results Logistic regression analyses revealed that parents were more likely to discuss why an activity was dangerous with older than younger children, and were more likely to urge daughters than sons to be more careful in the future. Injuries resulting from the presence of environmental hazards predicted parents telling children to be more careful in the future. Having others involved predicted parents urging children not to engage in the behavior again. Conclusions Findings suggest that parents modulated strategies according to age, gender, and injury circumstances to maximize the likelihood that children would behave differently in the future. PMID:26275976

Perceptions of adolescents' sexual behavior among mothers living with and without HIV: does dyadic sex communication matter?

PubMed

Marhefka, Stephanie L; Mellins, Claude Ann; Brackis-Cott, Elizabeth; Dolezal, Curtis; Ehrhardt, Anke A

2009-10-01

Previous studies suggest that mothers can help adolescents make responsible sexual decisions by talking with them about sexual health. Yet, it is not clear how and when mothers make decisions about talking with their adolescents about sex. We sought to determine: (1) the accuracy of mothers' and adolescents' predictions of adolescents' age of sexual debut; and (2) if mothers' beliefs about their adolescents' sexual behavior affected the frequency of mother-adolescent communication about sexual topics and, in turn, if mother-adolescent communication about sexual topics affected mothers' accuracy in predicting adolescents' current and future sexual behavior. Participants were 129 urban, ethnic minority HIV-negative youth (52% male and 48% female; ages 10-14 years at baseline; ages 13-19 years at follow-up) and their mothers; 47% of mothers were HIV-positive. Most mothers and adolescents predicted poorly when adolescents would sexually debut. At baseline, mothers' communication with their early adolescents about sexual topics was not significantly associated with mothers' assessments of their early adolescents' future sexual behavior. At follow-up, mothers were more likely to talk with their adolescents about HIV prevention and birth control if they believed that their adolescents had sexually debuted, though these effects were attenuated by baseline levels of communication. Only one effect was found for adolescents' gender: mothers reported greater communication about sex with daughters. Studies are needed to determine how mothers make decisions about talking with their adolescents about sex, as well as to examine to what extent and in what instances mothers can reduce their adolescents' sexual risk behavior by providing comprehensive, developmentally appropriate sex education well before adolescents are likely to debut.

Developmental trajectory from early responses to transgressions to future antisocial behavior: Evidence for the role of the parent-child relationship from two longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna; Boldt, Lea J.; Nordling, Jamie Koenig; O’Bleness, Jessica J.

2014-01-01

Parent-child relationships are critical in development, but much remains to be learned about mechanisms of their impact. We examined early parent-child relationship as a moderator of the developmental trajectory from children’s affective and behavioral responses to transgressions to future antisocial, externalizing behavior problems in Family Study (102 community mothers, fathers, and infants, followed through age 8) and Play Study (186 low-income, diverse mothers and toddlers, followed for 10 months). The relationship quality was indexed by attachment security in Family Study and maternal responsiveness in Play Study. Responses to transgressions (tense discomfort and reparation) were observed in laboratory mishaps that led children to believe they had damaged a valued object. Antisocial outcomes were rated by parents. In both studies, early relationship moderated the future developmental trajectory: Children’s attenuated tense discomfort predicted more antisocial outcomes, but only in insecure or unresponsive relationships. That risk was defused in secure or responsive relationships. Moderated mediation analyses in Family Study indicated that the links between low tense discomfort and future antisocial behavior in insecure parent-child dyads were mediated by parental stronger discipline pressure. By influencing indirectly future developmental sequelae, early relationship may increase or decrease the probability that the parent-child dyad will embark on a path toward antisocial outcomes. PMID:24280347

Developmental trajectory from early responses to transgressions to future antisocial behavior: evidence for the role of the parent-child relationship from two longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Kim, Sanghag; Kochanska, Grazyna; Boldt, Lea J; Nordling, Jamie Koenig; O'Bleness, Jessica J

2014-02-01

Parent-child relationships are critical in development, but much remains to be learned about the mechanisms of their impact. We examined the early parent-child relationship as a moderator of the developmental trajectory from children's affective and behavioral responses to transgressions to future antisocial, externalizing behavior problems in the Family Study (102 community mothers, fathers, and infants, followed through age 8) and the Play Study (186 low-income, diverse mothers and toddlers, followed for 10 months). The relationship quality was indexed by attachment security in the Family Study and maternal responsiveness in the Play Study. Responses to transgressions (tense discomfort and reparation) were observed in laboratory mishaps wherein children believed they had damaged a valued object. Antisocial outcomes were rated by parents. In both studies, early relationships moderated the future developmental trajectory: diminished tense discomfort predicted more antisocial outcomes, but only in insecure or unresponsive relationships. That risk was defused in secure or responsive relationships. Moderated mediation analyses in the Family Study indicated that the links between diminished tense discomfort and future antisocial behavior in insecure parent-child dyads were mediated by stronger discipline pressure from parents. By indirectly influencing future developmental sequelae, early relationships may increase or decrease the probability that the parent-child dyad will embark on a path toward antisocial outcomes.

Current Pressure Transducer Application of Model-based Prognostics Using Steady State Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teubert, Christopher; Daigle, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

Prognostics is the process of predicting a system's future states, health degradation/wear, and remaining useful life (RUL). This information plays an important role in preventing failure, reducing downtime, scheduling maintenance, and improving system utility. Prognostics relies heavily on wear estimation. In some components, the sensors used to estimate wear may not be fast enough to capture brief transient states that are indicative of wear. For this reason it is beneficial to be capable of detecting and estimating the extent of component wear using steady-state measurements. This paper details a method for estimating component wear using steady-state measurements, describes how this is used to predict future states, and presents a case study of a current/pressure (I/P) Transducer. I/P Transducer nominal and off-nominal behaviors are characterized using a physics-based model, and validated against expected and observed component behavior. This model is used to map observed steady-state responses to corresponding fault parameter values in the form of a lookup table. This method was chosen because of its fast, efficient nature, and its ability to be applied to both linear and non-linear systems. Using measurements of the steady state output, and the lookup table, wear is estimated. A regression is used to estimate the wear propagation parameter and characterize the damage progression function, which are used to predict future states and the remaining useful life of the system.

CSF biomarkers of Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Fagan, Anne M.; Grant, Elizabeth A.; Holtzman, David M.; Morris, John C.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To test whether CSF Alzheimer disease biomarkers (β-amyloid 42 [Aβ42], tau, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181 [ptau181], tau/Aβ42, and ptau181/Aβ42) predict future decline in noncognitive outcomes among individuals cognitively normal at baseline. Methods: Longitudinal data from participants (N = 430) who donated CSF within 1 year of a clinical assessment indicating normal cognition and were aged 50 years or older were analyzed. Mixed linear models were used to test whether baseline biomarker values predicted future decline in function (instrumental activities of daily living), weight, behavior, and mood. Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes and Mini-Mental State Examination scores were also examined. Results: Abnormal levels of each biomarker were related to greater impairment with time in behavior (p < 0.035) and mood (p < 0.012) symptoms, and more difficulties with independent activities of daily living (p < 0.012). However, biomarker levels were unrelated to weight change with time (p > 0.115). As expected, abnormal biomarker values also predicted more rapidly changing Mini-Mental State Examination (p < 0.041) and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (p < 0.001) scores compared with normal values. Conclusions: CSF biomarkers among cognitively normal individuals are associated with future decline in some, but not all, noncognitive Alzheimer disease symptoms studied. Additional work is needed to determine the extent to which these findings generalize to other samples. PMID:24212387

CSF biomarkers of Alzheimer disease: "noncognitive" outcomes.

PubMed

Roe, Catherine M; Fagan, Anne M; Grant, Elizabeth A; Holtzman, David M; Morris, John C

2013-12-03

To test whether CSF Alzheimer disease biomarkers (β-amyloid 42 [Aβ42], tau, phosphorylated tau at threonine 181 [ptau181], tau/Aβ42, and ptau181/Aβ42) predict future decline in noncognitive outcomes among individuals cognitively normal at baseline. Longitudinal data from participants (N = 430) who donated CSF within 1 year of a clinical assessment indicating normal cognition and were aged 50 years or older were analyzed. Mixed linear models were used to test whether baseline biomarker values predicted future decline in function (instrumental activities of daily living), weight, behavior, and mood. Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes and Mini-Mental State Examination scores were also examined. Abnormal levels of each biomarker were related to greater impairment with time in behavior (p < 0.035) and mood (p < 0.012) symptoms, and more difficulties with independent activities of daily living (p < 0.012). However, biomarker levels were unrelated to weight change with time (p > 0.115). As expected, abnormal biomarker values also predicted more rapidly changing Mini-Mental State Examination (p < 0.041) and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (p < 0.001) scores compared with normal values. CSF biomarkers among cognitively normal individuals are associated with future decline in some, but not all, noncognitive Alzheimer disease symptoms studied. Additional work is needed to determine the extent to which these findings generalize to other samples.

The modulation of savouring by prediction error and its effects on choice

PubMed Central

Iigaya, Kiyohito; Story, Giles W; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Dolan, Raymond J; Dayan, Peter

2016-01-01

When people anticipate uncertain future outcomes, they often prefer to know their fate in advance. Inspired by an idea in behavioral economics that the anticipation of rewards is itself attractive, we hypothesized that this preference of advance information arises because reward prediction errors carried by such information can boost the level of anticipation. We designed new empirical behavioral studies to test this proposal, and confirmed that subjects preferred advance reward information more strongly when they had to wait for rewards for a longer time. We formulated our proposal in a reinforcement-learning model, and we showed that our model could account for a wide range of existing neuronal and behavioral data, without appealing to ambiguous notions such as an explicit value for information. We suggest that such boosted anticipation significantly drives risk-seeking behaviors, most pertinently in gambling. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13747.001 PMID:27101365

Qualities of Peer Relations on Social Networking Websites: Predictions from Negative Mother-Teen Interactions

PubMed Central

Szwedo, David E.; Mikami, Amori Yee; Allen, Joseph P.

2010-01-01

This study examined associations between characteristics of teenagers’ relationships with their mothers and their later socializing behavior and peer relationship quality online. At age 13, teenagers and their mothers participated in an interaction in which mothers’ and adolescents’ behavior undermining autonomy and relatedness was observed, and indicators of teens’ depressive symptoms and social anxiety were assessed. At age 20, youth self-reported on their online behaviors, youths’ social networking webpages were observationally coded to assess peer relationship quality online, and symptoms of depression and social anxiety were reassessed. Results suggested that problematic mother-teen relationships were predictive of youths’ later preference for online communication and greater likelihood of forming a friendship with someone met online, yet poorer quality in online relationships. Findings are discussed within a developmental framework suggesting the importance of considering youths’ family interactions during early adolescence as predictors of future online socializing behavior and online interactions with peers. PMID:21860584

Qualities of Peer Relations on Social Networking Websites: Predictions from Negative Mother-Teen Interactions.

PubMed

Szwedo, David E; Mikami, Amori Yee; Allen, Joseph P

2011-09-01

This study examined associations between characteristics of teenagers' relationships with their mothers and their later socializing behavior and peer relationship quality online. At age 13, teenagers and their mothers participated in an interaction in which mothers' and adolescents' behavior undermining autonomy and relatedness was observed, and indicators of teens' depressive symptoms and social anxiety were assessed. At age 20, youth self-reported on their online behaviors, youths' social networking webpages were observationally coded to assess peer relationship quality online, and symptoms of depression and social anxiety were reassessed. Results suggested that problematic mother-teen relationships were predictive of youths' later preference for online communication and greater likelihood of forming a friendship with someone met online, yet poorer quality in online relationships. Findings are discussed within a developmental framework suggesting the importance of considering youths' family interactions during early adolescence as predictors of future online socializing behavior and online interactions with peers.

Effects of nonverbal behavior on perceptions of a female employee's power bases.

PubMed

Aguinis, H; Henle, C A

2001-08-01

The authors extended a previous examination of the effects of nonverbal behavior on perceptions of a male employee's power bases (H. Aguinis, M. M. Simonsen, & C. A. Pierce, 1998) by examining the effects of nonverbal behavior on perceptions of a female employee's power bases. U.S. undergraduates read vignettes describing a female employee engaging in 3 types of nonverbal behavior (i.e., eye contact, facial expression, body posture) and rated their perceptions of the woman's power bases (i.e., reward, coercive, legitimate, referent, expert, credibility). As predicted, (a) direct eye contact increased perceptions of coercive power, and (b) a relaxed facial expression decreased perceptions of all 6 power bases. Also as predicted, the present results differed markedly from those of Aguinis et al. (1998) regarding a male employee. The authors discuss implications for theory, future research, and the advancement of female employees.

Understanding Suicide Risk within the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) Framework: Insights, Challenges, and Future Research Considerations

PubMed Central

Glenn, Catherine R.; Cha, Christine B.; Kleiman, Evan M.; Nock, Matthew K.

2016-01-01

Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Prior research has focused primarily on sociodemographic and psychiatric risk factors with little improvement in the prediction or prevention of suicidal behavior over time. The Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) may be an especially useful framework for advancing research in this area. This paper provides a brief and broad overview of research on suicidal behavior relating to each of the RDoC domains—highlighting the RDoC construct(s) where research has focused, construct(s) where research is lacking, and suggestions for future research directions. We also discuss major challenges for suicide research within the RDoC framework, including the intersection of RDoC domains, interaction of domains with the environment, incorporation of developmental stage, integration of distal and proximal processes, and inclusion of suicide-specific constructs. We conclude by underscoring important considerations for future research aimed at using the RDoC framework to study suicidal behavior and other forms of psychopathology. PMID:28670505

Time Perspectives and Gambling in Adolescent Boys: Differential Effects of Present- and Future-Orientation.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Sottili, Elena; Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina

2018-06-04

Adolescent boys are characterised by increased risk-taking behavior, including a relatively high propensity to develop problem gambling habits. The association between gambling and sensitivity to immediately available rewards is well-established, suggesting that gamblers are less influenced by potential future consequences than non-gamblers. Nevertheless, existing studies have considered present- and future-orientation as two ends of the same continuum, and have not investigated the possibility that present and future perspectives might make independent contributions to gambling behavior. In the current study, we adopted Zimbardo's multidimensional approach, which discriminates between not only present and future perspectives, but also between a hedonistic and fatalistic present-orientation (in addition to positive and negative orientations towards the past). The participants were 223 male adolescents (mean age = 16.7 years). We investigated the effects of time perspectives on gambling frequency and gambling problem severity, after taking into account the effects of age, sensation seeking, and gambling-related cognitive distortions. Gambling frequency was significantly predicted by the present fatalistic perspective, and problem gambling was significantly (negatively) related to the future perspective. The present hedonistic and past negative perspectives were also significantly related to both gambling frequency and gambling problems, although they did not explain additional variance in gambling behavior when the effects of the other factors were controlled. Overall, these results offer a fresh perspective on the role of time perspectives in gambling behavior, with potential implications for understanding the origins of gambling problems and the development of novel interventions.

Social skills and behavior problems of urban, African American preschoolers: role of parenting practices, family conflict, and maternal depression.

PubMed

Koblinsky, Sally A; Kuvalanka, Katherine A; Randolph, Suzanne M

2006-10-01

This study examined the role of parenting, family routines, family conflict, and maternal depression in predicting the social skills and behavior problems of low-income African American preschoolers. A sample of 184 African American mothers of Head Start children completed participant and child measures in a structured interview. Results of regression analyses revealed that mothers who utilized more positive parenting practices and engaged in more family routines had children who displayed higher levels of total prosocial skills. Positive parenting and lower levels of maternal depressive symptoms were predictive of fewer externalizing and internalizing child behavior problems. Lower family conflict was linked with fewer externalizing problems. Implications of the study for future research and intervention are discussed. (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved

Sexual orientation and suicide attempt: a longitudinal study of the general Norwegian adolescent population.

PubMed

Wichstrøm, Lars; Hegna, Kristinn

2003-02-01

Past and future suicide attempt rates among gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) young people were compared with those of heterosexual young people. A sample of Norwegian students (N = 2.924; grades 7-12) was followed in 3 data collection waves. Risk factors included previous suicide attempt,depressed mood, eating problems, conduct problems, early sexual debut, number of sexual partners, pubertal timing, self-concept, alcohol and drug use, atypical gender roles, loneliness, peer relations, social support, parental attachment, parental monitoring, and suicidal behavior among family and friends. When homosexual attraction, homosexual identity, and same-sex sexual behavior were entered to predict suicide attempt, only same-sex sexual behavior was significantly predictive. The increased odds could not be attributed to GLB students' greater exposure to risk factors for suicide attempt.

Wireless Sensor Network Based Subsurface Contaminant Plume Monitoring

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-16

Sensor Network (WSN) to monitor contaminant plume movement in naturally heterogeneous subsurface formations to advance the sensor networking based...time to assess the source and predict future plume behavior. This proof-of-concept research aimed at demonstrating the use of an intelligent Wireless

Belief state representation in the dopamine system.

PubMed

Babayan, Benedicte M; Uchida, Naoshige; Gershman, Samuel J

2018-05-14

Learning to predict future outcomes is critical for driving appropriate behaviors. Reinforcement learning (RL) models have successfully accounted for such learning, relying on reward prediction errors (RPEs) signaled by midbrain dopamine neurons. It has been proposed that when sensory data provide only ambiguous information about which state an animal is in, it can predict reward based on a set of probabilities assigned to hypothetical states (called the belief state). Here we examine how dopamine RPEs and subsequent learning are regulated under state uncertainty. Mice are first trained in a task with two potential states defined by different reward amounts. During testing, intermediate-sized rewards are given in rare trials. Dopamine activity is a non-monotonic function of reward size, consistent with RL models operating on belief states. Furthermore, the magnitude of dopamine responses quantitatively predicts changes in behavior. These results establish the critical role of state inference in RL.

A computational substrate for incentive salience.

PubMed

McClure, Samuel M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Montague, P Read

2003-08-01

Theories of dopamine function are at a crossroads. Computational models derived from single-unit recordings capture changes in dopaminergic neuron firing rate as a prediction error signal. These models employ the prediction error signal in two roles: learning to predict future rewarding events and biasing action choice. Conversely, pharmacological inhibition or lesion of dopaminergic neuron function diminishes the ability of an animal to motivate behaviors directed at acquiring rewards. These lesion experiments have raised the possibility that dopamine release encodes a measure of the incentive value of a contemplated behavioral act. The most complete psychological idea that captures this notion frames the dopamine signal as carrying 'incentive salience'. On the surface, these two competing accounts of dopamine function seem incommensurate. To the contrary, we demonstrate that both of these functions can be captured in a single computational model of the involvement of dopamine in reward prediction for the purpose of reward seeking.

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Individual variation in social aggression and the probability of inheritance: theory and a field test.

PubMed

Cant, Michael A; Llop, Justine B; Field, Jeremy

2006-06-01

Recent theory suggests that much of the wide variation in individual behavior that exists within cooperative animal societies can be explained by variation in the future direct component of fitness, or the probability of inheritance. Here we develop two models to explore the effect of variation in future fitness on social aggression. The models predict that rates of aggression will be highest toward the front of the queue to inherit and will be higher in larger, more productive groups. A third prediction is that, in seasonal animals, aggression will increase as the time available to inherit the breeding position runs out. We tested these predictions using a model social species, the paper wasp Polistes dominulus. We found that rates of both aggressive "displays" (aimed at individuals of lower rank) and aggressive "tests" (aimed at individuals of higher rank) decreased down the hierarchy, as predicted by our models. The only other significant factor affecting aggression rates was date, with more aggression observed later in the season, also as predicted. Variation in future fitness due to inheritance rank is the hidden factor accounting for much of the variation in aggressiveness among apparently equivalent individuals in this species.

Recall of vegetable eating affects future predicted enjoyment and choice of vegetables in British University undergraduate students.

PubMed

Robinson, Eric; Blissett, Jackie; Higgs, Suzanne

2011-10-01

Predictions about enjoyment of future experiences are influenced by recalling similar past experiences. However, little is known about the relationship between hedonic memories of past eating episodes and future eating behavior. We investigated recall of previous experiences of eating vegetables and the effect of recall on future predicted liking for and consumption of vegetables. British University undergraduate students were asked to retrieve memories of previous occasions when they ate vegetables and were asked to rate how enjoyable those experiences were (Study 1, n=54). The effect of different types of memory recall (including vegetable eating recall) and visualization of someone else eating vegetables (to control for priming effects) on predicted likelihood of choosing vegetables and predicted enjoyment of eating vegetables was examined (Study 2, n=95). Finally, the effect of recalling vegetable eating memories on actual food choice from a buffet was assessed (Study 3, n=63). It is reported that people recall positive memories of past vegetable consumption (P<0.05) and that reminding people of these experiences results in higher predicted future liking for vegetables (P<0.05) and choice of a larger portion size of vegetables (P<0.05) compared with recall of a personal nonfood memory, a nonvegetable food memory, or visualization of someone else enjoying eating vegetables (increase of approximately 70% in vegetable portion size compared to controls). The results suggest that recall of previous eating experiences could be a potential strategy for altering food choices. Copyright © 2011 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Active lifestyles in older adults: an integrated predictive model of physical activity and exercise

PubMed Central

Galli, Federica; Chirico, Andrea; Mallia, Luca; Girelli, Laura; De Laurentiis, Michelino; Lucidi, Fabio; Giordano, Antonio; Botti, Gerardo

2018-01-01

Physical activity and exercise have been identified as behaviors to preserve physical and mental health in older adults. The aim of the present study was to test the Integrated Behavior Change model in exercise and physical activity behaviors. The study evaluated two different samples of older adults: the first engaged in exercise class, the second doing spontaneous physical activity. The key analyses relied on Variance-Based Structural Modeling, which were performed by means of WARP PLS 6.0 statistical software. The analyses estimated the Integrated Behavior Change model in predicting exercise and physical activity, in a longitudinal design across two months of assessment. The tested models exhibited a good fit with the observed data derived from the model focusing on exercise, as well as with those derived from the model focusing on physical activity. Results showed, also, some effects and relations specific to each behavioral context. Results may form a starting point for future experimental and intervention research. PMID:29875997

High calorie, low nutrient food/beverage intake and video gaming in children as potential signals for addictive behavior.

PubMed

Pentz, Mary Ann; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Chou, Chih Ping; Riggs, Nathaniel R

2011-12-01

Little is known about the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors in childhood that may signal later addictive behavior. Using a survey, this study evaluated high calorie, low nutrient HCLN intake and video gaming behaviors in 964 fourth grade children over 18 months, with stress, sensation-seeking, inhibitory control, grades, perceived safety of environment, and demographic variables as predictors. SEM and growth curve analyses supported a co-occurrence model with some support for addiction specificity. Male gender, free/reduced lunch, low perceived safety and low inhibitory control independently predicted both gaming and HCLN intake. Ethnicity and low stress predicted HCLN. The findings raise questions about whether living in some impoverished neighborhoods may contribute to social isolation characterized by staying indoors, and HCLN intake and video gaming as compensatory behaviors. Future prevention programs could include skills training for inhibitory control, combined with changes in the built environment that increase safety, e.g., implementing Safe Routes to School Programs.

High Calorie, Low Nutrient Food/Beverage Intake and Video Gaming in Children as Potential Signals for Addictive Behavior

PubMed Central

Pentz, Mary Ann; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Chou, Chih Ping; Riggs, Nathaniel R.

2011-01-01

Little is known about the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors in childhood that may signal later addictive behavior. Using a survey, this study evaluated high calorie, low nutrient HCLN intake and video gaming behaviors in 964 fourth grade children over 18 months, with stress, sensation-seeking, inhibitory control, grades, perceived safety of environment, and demographic variables as predictors. SEM and growth curve analyses supported a co-occurrence model with some support for addiction specificity. Male gender, free/reduced lunch, low perceived safety and low inhibitory control independently predicted both gaming and HCLN intake. Ethnicity and low stress predicted HCLN. The findings raise questions about whether living in some impoverished neighborhoods may contribute to social isolation characterized by staying indoors, and HCLN intake and video gaming as compensatory behaviors. Future prevention programs could include skills training for inhibitory control, combined with changes in the built environment that increase safety, e.g., implementing Safe Routes to School Programs. PMID:22408581

Understanding and Predicting the Fate of Semivolatile Organic Pesticides in a Glacier-Fed Lake Using a Multimedia Chemical Fate Model.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaolin; Davie-Martin, Cleo L; Steinlin, Christine; Hageman, Kimberly J; Cullen, Nicolas J; Bogdal, Christian

2017-10-17

Melting glaciers release previously ice-entrapped chemicals to the surrounding environment. As glacier melting accelerates under future climate warming, chemical release may also increase. This study investigated the behavior of semivolatile pesticides over the course of one year and predicted their behavior under two future climate change scenarios. Pesticides were quantified in air, lake water, glacial meltwater, and streamwater in the catchment of Lake Brewster, an alpine glacier-fed lake located in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. Two historic-use pesticides (endosulfan I and hexachlorobenzene) and three current-use pesticides (dacthal, triallate, and chlorpyrifos) were frequently found in both air and water samples from the catchment. Regression analysis indicated that the pesticide concentrations in glacial meltwater and lake water were strongly correlated. A multimedia environmental fate model was developed for these five chemicals in Brewster Lake. Modeling results indicated that seasonal lake ice cover melt, and varying contributions of input from glacial melt and streamwater, created pulses in pesticide concentrations in lake water. Under future climate scenarios, the concentration pulse was altered and glacial melt made a greater contribution (as mass flux) to pesticide input in the lake water.

Predicting suicide attempts with the SAD PERSONS scale: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Bolton, James M; Spiwak, Rae; Sareen, Jitender

2012-06-01

The SAD PERSONS scale is a widely used risk assessment tool for suicidal behavior despite a paucity of supporting data. The objective of this study was to examine the ability of the scale in predicting suicide attempts. Participants consisted of consecutive referrals (N=4,019) over 2 years (January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010) to psychiatric services in the emergency departments of the 2 largest tertiary care hospitals in the province of Manitoba, Canada. SAD PERSONS and Modified SAD PERSONS (MSPS) scale scores were recorded for individuals at their index and all subsequent presentations. The 2 main outcome measures in the study included current suicide attempts (at index presentation) and future suicide attempts (within the next 6 months). The ability of the scales to predict suicide attempts was evaluated with logistic regression, sensitivity and specificity analyses, and receiver operating characteristic curves. 566 people presented with suicide attempts (14.1% of the sample). Both SAD PERSONS and MSPS showed poor predictive ability for future suicide attempts. Compared to low risk scores, high risk baseline scores had low sensitivity (19.6% and 40.0%, respectively) and low positive predictive value (5.3% and 7.4%, respectively). SAD PERSONS did not predict suicide attempts better than chance (area under the curve =0.572; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.64; P value nonsignificant). Stepwise regression identified 5 original scale items that accounted for the greatest proportion of future suicide attempt variance. High risk scores using this model had high sensitivity (93.5%) and were associated with a 5-fold higher likelihood of future suicide attempt presentation (odds ratio =5.58; 95% CI, 2.24-13.86; P<.001). In their current form, SAD PERSONS and MSPS do not accurately predict future suicide attempts. © Copyright 2012 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Intentions of Chiropractic Interns Regarding use of Health Promotion in Practice: Applying Theory of Reasoned Action to Identify Attitudes, Beliefs, and Influencing Factors

PubMed Central

Evans, Marion W.; Ndetan, Harrison; Williams, Ronald D.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The theory of reasoned action is a health behavioral theory that has been used to predict personal health behaviors and intentions as well as those of providers delivering health care. The purpose of this study was to determine interns' future practices regarding the use of health promotion using this model to develop survey questions and to determine attitudes and perceived influences on their prospective behaviors in general, toward the use of health promotion once in practice. Methods: Across the course of one year, all graduating interns at a chiropractic college were queried with a 20 question survey designed using the theory of reasoned action. Frequencies and inferential statistics were performed including prediction modeling using logistic regression. Results: A majority (>85%) of interns indicated they would use health promotion in practice. Differences were noted based on perceived skill levels, perception of educational emphasis, various normative beliefs, and gender. Conclusion: Most interns will use some form of health promotion in practice. Normative influences including those seen as key influencers are as powerful a predictor as perceived education or skill levels on future practice of health promotion. PMID:19390679

Intentions of Chiropractic Interns Regarding use of Health Promotion in Practice: Applying Theory of Reasoned Action to Identify Attitudes, Beliefs, and Influencing Factors.

PubMed

Evans, Marion W; Ndetan, Harrison; Williams, Ronald D

2009-01-01

The theory of reasoned action is a health behavioral theory that has been used to predict personal health behaviors and intentions as well as those of providers delivering health care. The purpose of this study was to determine interns' future practices regarding the use of health promotion using this model to develop survey questions and to determine attitudes and perceived influences on their prospective behaviors in general, toward the use of health promotion once in practice. Across the course of one year, all graduating interns at a chiropractic college were queried with a 20 question survey designed using the theory of reasoned action. Frequencies and inferential statistics were performed including prediction modeling using logistic regression. A majority (>85%) of interns indicated they would use health promotion in practice. Differences were noted based on perceived skill levels, perception of educational emphasis, various normative beliefs, and gender. Most interns will use some form of health promotion in practice. Normative influences including those seen as key influencers are as powerful a predictor as perceived education or skill levels on future practice of health promotion.

The cell monolayer trajectory from the system state point of view.

PubMed

Stys, Dalibor; Vanek, Jan; Nahlik, Tomas; Urban, Jan; Cisar, Petr

2011-10-01

Time-lapse microscopic movies are being increasingly utilized for understanding the derivation of cell states and predicting cell future. Often, fluorescence and other types of labeling are not available or desirable, and cell state-definitions based on observable structures must be used. We present the methodology for cell behavior recognition and prediction based on the short term cell recurrent behavior analysis. This approach has theoretical justification in non-linear dynamics theory. The methodology is based on the general stochastic systems theory which allows us to define the cell states, trajectory and the system itself. We introduce the usage of a novel image content descriptor based on information contribution (gain) by each image point for the cell state characterization as the first step. The linkage between the method and the general system theory is presented as a general frame for cell behavior interpretation. We also discuss extended cell description, system theory and methodology for future development. This methodology may be used for many practical purposes, ranging from advanced, medically relevant, precise cell culture diagnostics to very utilitarian cell recognition in a noisy or uneven image background. In addition, the results are theoretically justified.

Improvements on GPS Location Cluster Analysis for the Prediction of Large Carnivore Feeding Activities: Ground-Truth Detection Probability and Inclusion of Activity Sensor Measures

PubMed Central

Blecha, Kevin A.; Alldredge, Mat W.

2015-01-01

Animal space use studies using GPS collar technology are increasingly incorporating behavior based analysis of spatio-temporal data in order to expand inferences of resource use. GPS location cluster analysis is one such technique applied to large carnivores to identify the timing and location of feeding events. For logistical and financial reasons, researchers often implement predictive models for identifying these events. We present two separate improvements for predictive models that future practitioners can implement. Thus far, feeding prediction models have incorporated a small range of covariates, usually limited to spatio-temporal characteristics of the GPS data. Using GPS collared cougar (Puma concolor) we include activity sensor data as an additional covariate to increase prediction performance of feeding presence/absence. Integral to the predictive modeling of feeding events is a ground-truthing component, in which GPS location clusters are visited by human observers to confirm the presence or absence of feeding remains. Failing to account for sources of ground-truthing false-absences can bias the number of predicted feeding events to be low. Thus we account for some ground-truthing error sources directly in the model with covariates and when applying model predictions. Accounting for these errors resulted in a 10% increase in the number of clusters predicted to be feeding events. Using a double-observer design, we show that the ground-truthing false-absence rate is relatively low (4%) using a search delay of 2–60 days. Overall, we provide two separate improvements to the GPS cluster analysis techniques that can be expanded upon and implemented in future studies interested in identifying feeding behaviors of large carnivores. PMID:26398546

Relationship functioning moderates the association between depressive symptoms and life stressors.

PubMed

Trombello, Joseph M; Schoebi, Dominik; Bradbury, Thomas N

2011-02-01

Data from 172 newlywed couples were collected over the first 4 years of marriage to test how behaviors demonstrated during marital interactions moderate associations between depressive symptoms and subsequent life stressors. Depressive symptoms and behaviors coded from problem-solving and social support interactions were analyzed as predictors of nonmarital stressors that were interpersonal and dependent on the participant's actions. Behavioral codes were found to moderate 3 of 16 symptom-to-life event associations for husbands. Husbands' reports of more depressive symptoms predicted greater levels of stress when husbands' positive affect and hard negative affect during problem-solving were relatively infrequent and when wives made frequent displays of positive behaviors during husbands' support topics. These effects remained after controlling for marital satisfaction. For wives, behavioral moderators did not interact with depressive symptoms to predict changes in stress, but marital satisfaction consistently interacted with depressive symptoms to predict future stressors beyond interpersonal behaviors. Specifically, for wives, stress generation was more evident when relationship satisfaction was low than when it was high. Our results, though different for men and women, suggest that relationship functioning can alter associations between depressive symptoms and life stress in the early years of marriage. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved). PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Fostering prosocial behavior and empathy in young children.

PubMed

Spinrad, Tracy L; Gal, Diana E

2018-04-01

There is increasing interest in understanding ways to foster young children's prosocial behavior (i.e. voluntary acts to benefit another). We begin this review by differentiating between types of prosocial behavior, empathy, and sympathy. We argue that sympathy and some types of prosocial behaviors are most likely intrinsically motivated, whereas other types of prosocial behaviors may be extrinsically motivated. Next, we highlight work focusing on the socialization practices that have been found to predict individual differences in young children's prosocial behavior and concern for others. Although work in the area is limited, we also review some intervention programs that have shown effectiveness in improving young children's positive social behaviors. We conclude with areas for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mesolimbic Dopamine Signals the Value of Work

PubMed Central

Hamid, Arif A.; Pettibone, Jeffrey R.; Mabrouk, Omar S.; Hetrick, Vaughn L.; Schmidt, Robert; Vander Weele, Caitlin M.; Kennedy, Robert T.; Aragona, Brandon J.; Berke, Joshua D.

2015-01-01

Dopamine cell firing can encode errors in reward prediction, providing a learning signal to guide future behavior. Yet dopamine is also a key modulator of motivation, invigorating current behavior. Existing theories propose that fast (“phasic”) dopamine fluctuations support learning, while much slower (“tonic”) dopamine changes are involved in motivation. We examined dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens across multiple time scales, using complementary microdialysis and voltammetric methods during adaptive decision-making. We first show that minute-by-minute dopamine levels covary with reward rate and motivational vigor. We then show that second-by-second dopamine release encodes an estimate of temporally-discounted future reward (a value function). We demonstrate that changing dopamine immediately alters willingness to work, and reinforces preceding action choices by encoding temporal-difference reward prediction errors. Our results indicate that dopamine conveys a single, rapidly-evolving decision variable, the available reward for investment of effort, that is employed for both learning and motivational functions. PMID:26595651

When do financial incentives reduce intrinsic motivation? comparing behaviors studied in psychological and economic literatures.

PubMed

Promberger, Marianne; Marteau, Theresa M

2013-09-01

To review existing evidence on the potential of incentives to undermine or "crowd out" intrinsic motivation, in order to establish whether and when it predicts financial incentives to crowd out motivation for health-related behaviors. We conducted a conceptual analysis to compare definitions and operationalizations of the effect, and reviewed existing evidence to identify potential moderators of the effect. In the psychological literature, we find strong evidence for an undermining effect of tangible rewards on intrinsic motivation for simple tasks when motivation manifest in behavior is initially high. In the economic literature, evidence for undermining effects exists for a broader variety of behaviors, in settings that involve a conflict of interest between parties. By contrast, for health related behaviors, baseline levels of incentivized behaviors are usually low, and only a subset involve an interpersonal conflict of interest. Correspondingly, we find no evidence for crowding out of incentivized health behaviors. The existing evidence does not warrant a priori predictions that an undermining effect would be found for health-related behaviors. Health-related behaviors and incentives schemes differ greatly in moderating characteristics, which should be the focus of future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

When Do Financial Incentives Reduce Intrinsic Motivation? Comparing Behaviors Studied in Psychological and Economic Literatures

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Objective: To review existing evidence on the potential of incentives to undermine or “crowd out” intrinsic motivation, in order to establish whether and when it predicts financial incentives to crowd out motivation for health-related behaviors. Method: We conducted a conceptual analysis to compare definitions and operationalizations of the effect, and reviewed existing evidence to identify potential moderators of the effect. Results: In the psychological literature, we find strong evidence for an undermining effect of tangible rewards on intrinsic motivation for simple tasks when motivation manifest in behavior is initially high. In the economic literature, evidence for undermining effects exists for a broader variety of behaviors, in settings that involve a conflict of interest between parties. By contrast, for health related behaviors, baseline levels of incentivized behaviors are usually low, and only a subset involve an interpersonal conflict of interest. Correspondingly, we find no evidence for crowding out of incentivized health behaviors. Conclusion: The existing evidence does not warrant a priori predictions that an undermining effect would be found for health-related behaviors. Health-related behaviors and incentives schemes differ greatly in moderating characteristics, which should be the focus of future research. PMID:24001245

Multiscale Modeling of Angiogenesis and Predictive Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillay, Samara; Byrne, Helen; Maini, Philip

Tumors induce the growth of new blood vessels from existing vasculature through angiogenesis. Using an agent-based approach, we model the behavior of individual endothelial cells during angiogenesis. We incorporate crowding effects through volume exclusion, motility of cells through biased random walks, and include birth and death-like processes. We use the transition probabilities associated with the discrete model and a discrete conservation equation for cell occupancy to determine collective cell behavior, in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs). We derive three PDE models incorporating single, multi-species and no volume exclusion. By fitting the parameters in our PDE models and other well-established continuum models to agent-based simulations during a specific time period, and then comparing the outputs from the PDE models and agent-based model at later times, we aim to determine how well the PDE models predict the future behavior of the agent-based model. We also determine whether predictions differ across PDE models and the significance of those differences. This may impact drug development strategies based on PDE models.

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts Among Adolescent and Emerging Adult Psychiatric Emergency Patients

PubMed Central

Horwitz, Adam G.; Czyz, Ewa K.; King, Cheryl A.

2014-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine specific characteristics of suicidal ideation in combination with histories of suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) to best evaluate risk for a future attempt among high-risk adolescents and emerging adults. Method Participants in this retrospective medical record review study were 473 (53% female; 69% Caucasian) consecutive patients, ages 15–24 years (M = 19.4 years) who presented for psychiatric emergency (PE) services during a 9-month period. These patients’ medical records, including a clinician-administered Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, were coded at the index visit and at future visits occurring within the next 18 months. Logistic regression models were used to predict suicide attempts during this period. Results SES, suicidal ideation severity (i.e., intent, method), suicidal ideation intensity (i.e., frequency, controllability), a lifetime history of suicide attempt, and a lifetime history of NSSI were significant independent predictors of a future suicide attempt. Suicidal ideation added incremental validity to the prediction of future suicide attempts above and beyond the influence of a past suicide attempt, whereas a lifetime history of NSSI did not. Sex moderated the relationship between the duration of suicidal thoughts and future attempts (predictive for males, but not females). Conclusions Results suggest value in incorporating both past behaviors and current thoughts into suicide risk formulation. Furthermore, suicidal ideation duration warrants additional examination as a potential critical factor for screening assessments evaluating suicide risk among high-risk samples, particularly for males. PMID:24871489

A Battery Health Monitoring Framework for Planetary Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Kulkarni, Chetan Shrikant

2014-01-01

Batteries have seen an increased use in electric ground and air vehicles for commercial, military, and space applications as the primary energy source. An important aspect of using batteries in such contexts is battery health monitoring. Batteries must be carefully monitored such that the battery health can be determined, and end of discharge and end of usable life events may be accurately predicted. For planetary rovers, battery health estimation and prediction is critical to mission planning and decision-making. We develop a model-based approach utilizing computaitonally efficient and accurate electrochemistry models of batteries. An unscented Kalman filter yields state estimates, which are then used to predict the future behavior of the batteries and, specifically, end of discharge. The prediction algorithm accounts for possible future power demands on the rover batteries in order to provide meaningful results and an accurate representation of prediction uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on a set of lithium-ion batteries powering a rover at NASA.

Coping Skills Help Explain How Future-Oriented Adolescents Accrue Greater Well-Being Over Time.

PubMed

Chua, Li Wen; Milfont, Taciano L; Jose, Paul E

2015-11-01

Adolescents who endorse greater levels of future orientation report greater well-being over time, but we do not know the mechanism by which this happens. The present longitudinal study examined whether both adaptive as well as maladaptive coping strategies might explain how future orientation leads to ill-being and well-being over time in young New Zealanders. A sample of 1,774 preadolescents and early adolescents (51.9 % female) aged 10-15 years at Time 1 completed a self-report survey three times with 1 year intervals in between. Longitudinal mediation path models were constructed to determine whether and how maladaptive and adaptive coping strategies at Time 2 functioned as mediators between future orientation at Time 1 and ill-being and well-being at Time 3. Results showed that future orientation predicted lower maladaptive coping, which in turn predicted lower substance use and self-harming behavior. All three well-being outcomes (i.e., happiness with weight, vitality, and sleep) were consistently predicted by future orientation, and all three pathways were mediated by both lower maladaptive and higher adaptive coping strategies (with the exception of happiness with weight, which was mediated only by lower maladaptive coping). The results suggest that several pathways by which future orientation leads to greater well-being occurs through an increased use of adaptive coping, a decreased use of maladaptive coping, or both.

Time perspective as a determinant of smoking cessation in four countries: Direct and mediated effects from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) 4-Country Surveys

PubMed Central

Hall, Peter A.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Meng, Gang

2015-01-01

Background Future oriented time perspective predicts a number of important health behaviors and outcomes, including smoking cessation. However, it is not known how future orientation exerts its effects on such outcomes, and no large scale cross-national studies have examined the question prospectively. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the relationship between time perspective and success in smoking cessation, and social cognitive mediators of the association. Methods The ITC-4 is a multi-wave, four country survey (Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) of current smokers (N=9,772); the survey includes baseline measurements of time perspective, intentions, quit attempts, and self-reported quit status at follow-up over 8 years. We examined the predictive power of time perspective for smoking cessation, as mediated through strength of quit intentions and prior history of quit attempts. Results Findings indicated that those smokers with a stronger future orientation at baseline were more likely to have successfully quit at follow-up. This effect was partially explained by intention-mediated effects of future orientation on quit attempts. Conclusions Future orientation predicts smoking cessation across four English-speaking countries; the cessation-facilitating effects of future orientation may be primarily due to future oriented individuals’ motivated and sustained involvement in the quit cycle over time. PMID:24747807

Time perspective as a determinant of smoking cessation in four countries: Direct and mediated effects from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) 4-Country Surveys.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Meng, Gang

2014-07-01

Future oriented time perspective predicts a number of important health behaviors and outcomes, including smoking cessation. However, it is not known how future orientation exerts its effects on such outcomes, and no large scale cross-national studies have examined the question prospectively. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the relationship between time perspective and success in smoking cessation, and social cognitive mediators of the association. The ITC-4 is a multi-wave, four country survey (Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) of current smokers (N=9772); the survey includes baseline measurements of time perspective, intentions, quit attempts, and self-reported quit status at follow-up over 8 years. We examined the predictive power of time perspective for smoking cessation, as mediated through strength of quit intentions and prior history of quit attempts. Findings indicated that those smokers with a stronger future orientation at baseline were more likely to have successfully quit at follow-up. This effect was partially explained by intention-mediated effects of future orientation on quit attempts. Future orientation predicts smoking cessation across four English-speaking countries; the cessation-facilitating effects of future orientation may be primarily due to future oriented individuals' motivated and sustained involvement in the quit cycle over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time will tell: A longitudinal investigation of brain-behavior relationships during reading development

DOE PAGES

Stites, Mallory C.; Laszlo, Sarah

2017-02-23

ERPs are a powerful tool for the study of reading, as they are both temporally precise and functionally specific. These are essential characteristics for studying a process that unfolds rapidly and consists of multiple, interactive subprocesses. In work with adults, clear, specific models exist linking components of the ERP with individual subprocesses of reading including orthographic decoding, phonological processing, and semantic access (e.g., Grainger & Holcomb, 2009). The relationships between ERP components and reading subprocesses are less clear in development; here, we address two questions regarding these relationships. First, we ask whether there are ERP markers that predict future readingmore » behaviors across a longitudinal year. Second, we ask whether any relationships observed between ERP components and reading behavior across time map onto the better-established relationships between ERPs and reading subprocesses in adults. To address these questions, we acquired ERPs from children engaging in a silent reading task and then, a year later, collected behavioral assessments of their reading ability. Finally, we find that ERPs collected in Year 1 do predict reading behaviors a year later. Further, we find that these relationships do conform, at least to some extent, to relationships between ERP components and reading subprocesses observed in adults, with, for example, N250 amplitude in Year 1 predicting phonological awareness in Year 2, and N400 amplitude in Year 1 predicting vocabulary in Year 2.« less

Time will tell: A longitudinal investigation of brain-behavior relationships during reading development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stites, Mallory C.; Laszlo, Sarah

ERPs are a powerful tool for the study of reading, as they are both temporally precise and functionally specific. These are essential characteristics for studying a process that unfolds rapidly and consists of multiple, interactive subprocesses. In work with adults, clear, specific models exist linking components of the ERP with individual subprocesses of reading including orthographic decoding, phonological processing, and semantic access (e.g., Grainger & Holcomb, 2009). The relationships between ERP components and reading subprocesses are less clear in development; here, we address two questions regarding these relationships. First, we ask whether there are ERP markers that predict future readingmore » behaviors across a longitudinal year. Second, we ask whether any relationships observed between ERP components and reading behavior across time map onto the better-established relationships between ERPs and reading subprocesses in adults. To address these questions, we acquired ERPs from children engaging in a silent reading task and then, a year later, collected behavioral assessments of their reading ability. Finally, we find that ERPs collected in Year 1 do predict reading behaviors a year later. Further, we find that these relationships do conform, at least to some extent, to relationships between ERP components and reading subprocesses observed in adults, with, for example, N250 amplitude in Year 1 predicting phonological awareness in Year 2, and N400 amplitude in Year 1 predicting vocabulary in Year 2.« less

Intertemporal bargaining predicts moral behavior, even in anonymous, one-shot economic games.

PubMed

Ainslie, George

2013-02-01

To the extent that acting fairly is in an individual’s long-term interest, short-term impulses to cheat present a self-control problem. The only effective solution is to interpret the problem as a variant of repeated prisoner’s dilemma, with each choice as a test case predicting future choices. Moral choice appears to be the product of a contract because it comes from self-enforcing intertemporal cooperation.

Future so bright? Delay discounting and consideration of future consequences predict academic performance among college drinkers.

PubMed

Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Borsari, Brian; Martens, Matthew P; Murphy, James G

2017-10-01

College student drinking is a major public health concern and can result in a range of negative consequences, from acute health risks to decreased academic performance and drop out. Harm reduction interventions have been developed to reduce problems associated with drinking but there is a need to identify specific risk/protective factors related to academic performance among college drinkers. Behavioral economics suggests that chronic alcohol misuse reflects a dysregulated behavioral process or reinforcer pathology-alcohol is overvalued and the value of prosocial rewards are sharply discounted due, in part, to their delay. This study examined delay discounting, consideration of future consequences (CFC) and protective behavioral strategies (PBS) as predictors of academic success (grade point average; GPA) and engagement (time devoted to academic activities) among 393 college drinkers (61% female). In multivariate models, PBS were associated with greater academic engagement, but were not with academic success. Lower discounting of delayed rewards and greater CFC were associated with both academic success and engagement among drinkers. Previous research suggests that future time orientation is malleable, and the current results provide support for efforts to enhance future time orientation as part of alcohol harm-reduction approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Bidirectional associations between activity-related parenting practices, and child physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior and body mass index: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Sleddens, Ester F C; Gubbels, Jessica S; Kremers, Stef P J; van der Plas, Eline; Thijs, Carel

2017-07-06

It has been generally assumed that activity-related parenting practices influence children's activity behavior and weight status. However, vice versa parents may also change their parenting behaviors in response to their perceptions of their child's activity behavior and weight status. This study examined the bidirectional relationships between activity-related parenting practices, and physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior, and body mass index (BMI) between children's age of 5 and 7 years. Three scales of the Activity-related Parenting Questionnaire (i.e. 'restriction of sedentary behavior', 'stimulation of physical activity', and 'monitoring of physical activity') were completed by 1694 parents of the Dutch KOALA Birth Cohort Study at the child's age of around 5 and again around age 7. Physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior and BMI were measured at both ages as well. Linear regression models were used to estimate the bidirectional associations between each parenting practice and the child's physical activity levels, sedentary screen-based behavior and BMI z-scores. Several parenting practices at age 5 predicted child physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior, and BMI z-scores at age 7. Restriction of sedentary behavior positively predicted child BMI and sedentary screen-based behavior, whereas this practice negatively predicted child physical activity. In addition, stimulation of physical activity at age 5 was significantly associated with higher levels of child physical activity at age 7. The following child factors at age 5 predicted parenting practices at age 7: Child physical activity positively predicted parental stimulation of physical activity and monitoring activities. Sedentary screen-based behavior was associated with lower parental stimulation to be active. Findings generally revealed that parents and children mutually influence each other's behavior. A reinforcing feedback loop was present between parental stimulation of physical activity and child physical activity. Bidirectional parent-child interaction should be considered in future research in order to properly inform parenting-related intervention programs aimed at preventing or treating childhood overweight or obesity. System dynamic methods to explore the existence of reinforcing or balancing loops are needed in this regard.

Development of a dynamic computational model of social cognitive theory.

PubMed

Riley, William T; Martin, Cesar A; Rivera, Daniel E; Hekler, Eric B; Adams, Marc A; Buman, Matthew P; Pavel, Misha; King, Abby C

2016-12-01

Social cognitive theory (SCT) is among the most influential theories of behavior change and has been used as the conceptual basis of health behavior interventions for smoking cessation, weight management, and other health behaviors. SCT and other behavior theories were developed primarily to explain differences between individuals, but explanatory theories of within-person behavioral variability are increasingly needed as new technologies allow for intensive longitudinal measures and interventions adapted from these inputs. These within-person explanatory theoretical applications can be modeled as dynamical systems. SCT constructs, such as reciprocal determinism, are inherently dynamical in nature, but SCT has not been modeled as a dynamical system. This paper describes the development of a dynamical system model of SCT using fluid analogies and control systems principles drawn from engineering. Simulations of this model were performed to assess if the model performed as predicted based on theory and empirical studies of SCT. This initial model generates precise and testable quantitative predictions for future intensive longitudinal research. Dynamic modeling approaches provide a rigorous method for advancing health behavior theory development and refinement and for guiding the development of more potent and efficient interventions.

Sexual Behaviors of US Women at Risk of HIV Acquisition: A Longitudinal Analysis of Findings from HPTN 064.

PubMed

Justman, J; Befus, M; Hughes, J; Wang, J; Golin, C E; Adimora, A A; Kuo, I; Haley, D F; Del Rio, C; El-Sadr, W M; Rompalo, A; Mannheimer, S; Soto-Torres, L; Hodder, S

2015-07-01

We describe the sexual behaviors of women at elevated risk of HIV acquisition who reside in areas of high HIV prevalence and poverty in the US. Participants in HPTN 064, a prospective HIV incidence study, provided information about individual sexual behaviors and male sexual partners in the past 6 months at baseline, 6- and 12-months. Independent predictors of consistent or increased temporal patterns for three high-risk sexual behaviors were assessed separately: exchange sex, unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) and concurrent partnerships. The baseline prevalence of each behavior was >30 % among the 2,099 participants, 88 % reported partner(s) with >1 HIV risk characteristic and both individual and partner risk characteristics decreased over time. Less than high school education and food insecurity predicted consistent/increased engagement in exchange sex and UAI, and partner's concurrency predicted participant concurrency. Our results demonstrate how interpersonal and social factors may influence sustained high-risk behavior by individuals and suggest that further study of the economic issues related to HIV risk could inform future prevention interventions.

Homeostatic Regulation of Memory Systems and Adaptive Decisions

PubMed Central

Mizumori, Sheri JY; Jo, Yong Sang

2013-01-01

While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The “multiple memory systems of the brain” have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in rigid and suboptimal decision making and memory as seen in addiction and neurological disease. © 2013 The Authors. Hippocampus Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:23929788

Homeostatic regulation of memory systems and adaptive decisions.

PubMed

Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang

2013-11-01

While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in rigid and suboptimal decision making and memory as seen in addiction and neurological disease. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Imagine All the People: How the Brain Creates and Uses Personality Models to Predict Behavior

PubMed Central

Hassabis, Demis; Spreng, R. Nathan; Rusu, Andrei A.; Robbins, Clifford A.; Mar, Raymond A.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

The behaviors of other people are often central to envisioning the future. The ability to accurately predict the thoughts and actions of others is essential for successful social interactions, with far-reaching consequences. Despite its importance, little is known about how the brain represents people in order to predict behavior. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging study, participants learned the unique personality of 4 protagonists and imagined how each would behave in different scenarios. The protagonists' personalities were composed of 2 traits: Agreeableness and Extraversion. Which protagonist was being imagined was accurately inferred based solely on activity patterns in the medial prefrontal cortex using multivariate pattern classification, providing novel evidence that brain activity can reveal whom someone is thinking about. Lateral temporal and posterior cingulate cortex discriminated between different degrees of agreeableness and extraversion, respectively. Functional connectivity analysis confirmed that regions associated with trait-processing and individual identities were functionally coupled. Activity during the imagination task, and revealed by functional connectivity, was consistent with the default network. Our results suggest that distinct regions code for personality traits, and that the brain combines these traits to represent individuals. The brain then uses this “personality model” to predict the behavior of others in novel situations. PMID:23463340

Relating spatial perspective taking to the perception of other's affordances: providing a foundation for predicting the future behavior of others

PubMed Central

Creem-Regehr, Sarah H.; Gagnon, Kyle T.; Geuss, Michael N.; Stefanucci, Jeanine K.

2013-01-01

Understanding what another agent can see relates functionally to the understanding of what they can do. We propose that spatial perspective taking and perceiving other's affordances, while two separate spatial processes, together share the common social function of predicting the behavior of others. Perceiving the action capabilities of others allows for a common understanding of how agents may act together. The ability to take another's perspective focuses an understanding of action goals so that more precise understanding of intentions may result. This review presents an analysis of these complementary abilities, both in terms of the frames of reference and the proposed sensorimotor mechanisms involved. Together, we argue for the importance of reconsidering the role of basic spatial processes to explain more complex behaviors. PMID:24068992

An extended theory of planned behavior to predict consumers' willingness to buy mobile slaughter unit meat.

PubMed

Hoeksma, Djura L; Gerritzen, Marien A; Lokhorst, Anne Marike; Poortvliet, P Marijn

2017-06-01

The current study investigated the determinants of consumers' intention to purchase meat from mobile slaughter units (MSU). The theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the value belief norm theory (VBN) were used as conceptual lenses to guide this investigation. We conducted a survey among 329 respondents in the Netherlands who buy meat for themselves and/or for others. The results indicated that (1) TPB and VBN explain a high proportion of the variance in consumers' intention to buy MSU meat, and that (2) an extended TPB that includes peoples' attitude, personal norm, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control turned out to be the best model to predict willingness to buy MSU meat. Further implications for future research and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anisotropic constitutive modeling for nickel-base single crystal superalloys. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheh, Michael Y.

1988-01-01

An anisotropic constitutive model was developed based on crystallographic slip theory for nickel base single crystal superalloys. The constitutive equations developed utilizes drag stress and back stress state variables to model the local inelastic flow. Specially designed experiments were conducted to evaluate the existence of back stress in single crystal superalloy Rene N4 at 982 C. The results suggest that: (1) the back stress is orientation dependent; and (2) the back stress state variable is required for the current model to predict material anelastic recovery behavior. The model was evaluated for its predictive capability on single crystal material behavior including orientation dependent stress-strain response, tension/compression asymmetry, strain rate sensitivity, anelastic recovery behavior, cyclic hardening and softening, stress relaxation, creep and associated crystal lattice rotation. Limitation and future development needs are discussed.

Research on Web Search Behavior: How Online Query Data Inform Social Psychology.

PubMed

Lai, Kaisheng; Lee, Yan Xin; Chen, Hao; Yu, Rongjun

2017-10-01

The widespread use of web searches in daily life has allowed researchers to study people's online social and psychological behavior. Using web search data has advantages in terms of data objectivity, ecological validity, temporal resolution, and unique application value. This review integrates existing studies on web search data that have explored topics including sexual behavior, suicidal behavior, mental health, social prejudice, social inequality, public responses to policies, and other psychosocial issues. These studies are categorized as descriptive, correlational, inferential, predictive, and policy evaluation research. The integration of theory-based hypothesis testing in future web search research will result in even stronger contributions to social psychology.

Environmental, Transient, Three-Dimensional, Hydrothermal, Mass Transport Code - FLESCOT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Bao, Jie; Glass, Kevin A.

The purpose of the project was to modify and apply the transient, three-dimensional FLESCOT code to be able to effectively simulate cesium behavior in Fukushima lakes/dam reservoirs, river mouths, and coastal areas. The ultimate objective of the FLESCOT simulation is to predict future changes of cesium accumulation in Fukushima area reservoirs and costal water. These evaluation results will assist ongoing and future environmental remediation activities and policies in a systematic and comprehensive manner.

Excellent gamer, excellent driver? The impact of adolescents' video game playing on driving behavior: a two-wave panel study.

PubMed

Beullens, Kathleen; Roe, Keith; Van den Bulck, Jan

2011-01-01

This study explored the impact of adolescents' playing of racing and drive'em up games on their risky driving behavior. Participants were 354 adolescent boys and girls who took part in a longitudinal panel survey on video game playing and risk taking attitudes, intentions and behaviors. In line with cultivation theory and theory of planned behavior the results showed that (even after controlling for aggression and sensation seeking) video game playing during adolescence succeeded in predicting later risky driving behavior through adolescents' attitudes and intentions to exhibit this behavior in the future. The results suggest that this relationship may in part be explained by the game content. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discrimination of amygdala response predicts future separation anxiety in youth with early deprivation.

PubMed

Green, Shulamite A; Goff, Bonnie; Gee, Dylan G; Gabard-Durnam, Laurel; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva H; Humphreys, Kathryn L; Louie, Jennifer; Tottenham, Nim

2016-10-01

Significant disruption in caregiving is associated with increased internalizing symptoms, most notably heightened separation anxiety symptoms during childhood. It is also associated with altered functional development of the amygdala, a neurobiological correlate of anxious behavior. However, much less is known about how functional alterations of amygdala predict individual differences in anxiety. Here, we probed amygdala function following institutional caregiving using very subtle social-affective stimuli (trustworthy and untrustworthy faces), which typically result in large differences in amygdala signal, and change in separation anxiety behaviors over a 2-year period. We hypothesized that the degree of differentiation of amygdala signal to trustworthy versus untrustworthy face stimuli would predict separation anxiety symptoms. Seventy-four youths mean (SD) age = 9.7 years (2.64) with and without previous institutional care, who were all living in families at the time of testing, participated in an fMRI task designed to examine differential amygdala response to trustworthy versus untrustworthy faces. Parents reported on their children's separation anxiety symptoms at the time of scan and again 2 years later. Previous institutional care was associated with diminished amygdala signal differences and behavioral differences to the contrast of untrustworthy and trustworthy faces. Diminished differentiation of these stimuli types predicted more severe separation anxiety symptoms 2 years later. Older age at adoption was associated with diminished differentiation of amygdala responses. A history of institutional care is associated with reduced differential amygdala responses to social-affective cues of trustworthiness that are typically exhibited by comparison samples. Individual differences in the degree of amygdala differential responding to these cues predict the severity of separation anxiety symptoms over a 2-year period. These findings provide a biological mechanism to explain the associations between early caregiving adversity and individual differences in internalizing symptomology during development, thereby contributing to individualized predictions of future clinical outcomes. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Learning Predictive Statistics: Strategies and Brain Mechanisms.

PubMed

Wang, Rui; Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

2017-08-30

When immersed in a new environment, we are challenged to decipher initially incomprehensible streams of sensory information. However, quite rapidly, the brain finds structure and meaning in these incoming signals, helping us to predict and prepare ourselves for future actions. This skill relies on extracting the statistics of event streams in the environment that contain regularities of variable complexity from simple repetitive patterns to complex probabilistic combinations. Here, we test the brain mechanisms that mediate our ability to adapt to the environment's statistics and predict upcoming events. By combining behavioral training and multisession fMRI in human participants (male and female), we track the corticostriatal mechanisms that mediate learning of temporal sequences as they change in structure complexity. We show that learning of predictive structures relates to individual decision strategy; that is, selecting the most probable outcome in a given context (maximizing) versus matching the exact sequence statistics. These strategies engage distinct human brain regions: maximizing engages dorsolateral prefrontal, cingulate, sensory-motor regions, and basal ganglia (dorsal caudate, putamen), whereas matching engages occipitotemporal regions (including the hippocampus) and basal ganglia (ventral caudate). Our findings provide evidence for distinct corticostriatal mechanisms that facilitate our ability to extract behaviorally relevant statistics to make predictions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Making predictions about future events relies on interpreting streams of information that may initially appear incomprehensible. Past work has studied how humans identify repetitive patterns and associative pairings. However, the natural environment contains regularities that vary in complexity from simple repetition to complex probabilistic combinations. Here, we combine behavior and multisession fMRI to track the brain mechanisms that mediate our ability to adapt to changes in the environment's statistics. We provide evidence for an alternate route for learning complex temporal statistics: extracting the most probable outcome in a given context is implemented by interactions between executive and motor corticostriatal mechanisms compared with visual corticostriatal circuits (including hippocampal cortex) that support learning of the exact temporal statistics. Copyright © 2017 Wang et al.

Predicting and understanding undergraduate students' intentions to gamble in a casino using an extended model of the theory of reasoned action and the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Lee, Hyung-Seok

2013-06-01

Given that current television programming contains numerous gambling portrayals, it is imperative to understand whether and to what extent these gambling behaviors in media influence individuals' beliefs, attitudes, and intentions. This study explores an extended model of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) by including gambling media exposure as a distal, mediating and mediated factor in predicting undergraduate students' intentions to gamble in a casino. Findings show that the extended model of TRA clearly indicates that the constructs of gambling media exposure, prior gambling experience, and level of gambling addiction contribute to the prediction of undergraduate students' casino gambling intentions. Theoretical implications of gambling media effects and practical implications for public policy are discussed, and future research directions are outlined.

Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology, 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Presentations were made concerning the hot section environment and behavior of combustion liners, turbine blades, and waves. The presentations were divided into six sessions: instrumentation, combustion, turbine heat transfer, structural analysis, fatigue and fracture, and surface properties. The principal objective of each session was to disseminate research results to date, along with future plans. Topics discussed included modeling of thermal and fluid flow phenomena, structural analysis, fatigue and fracture, surface protective coatings, constitutive behavior, stress-strain response, and life prediction methods.

Knowing what to sell, when, and to whom.

PubMed

Kumar, V; Venkatesan, Rajkumar; Reinartz, Werner

2006-03-01

Despite an abundance of data, most companies do a poor job of predicting the behavior of their customers. In fact, the authors' research suggests that even companies that take the greatest trouble over their predictions about whether a particular customer will buy a particular product are correct only around 55% of the time--a result that hardly justifies the costs of having a CRM system in the first place. Businesses usually conclude from studies like this that it's impossible to use the past to predict the future, so they revert to the timeworn marketing practice of inundating their customers with offers. But as the authors explain, the reason for the poor predictions is not any basic limitation of CRM systems or the predictive power of past behavior, but rather of the mathematical methods that companies use to interpret the data. The authors have developed a new way of predicting customer behavior, based on the work of the Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel McFadden, that delivers vastly improved results. Indeed, the methodology increases the odds of successfully predicting a specific purchase by a specific customer at a specific time to about 85%, a number that will have a major impact on any company's marketing ROI. What's more, using this methodology, companies can increase revenues while reducing their frequency of customer contact-evidence that overcommunication with customers may actually damage a company's sales.

The Longitudinal Associations between Perceived Descriptive Peer Norms and Eating and Drinking Behavior: An Initial Examination in Young Adults

PubMed Central

Jones, Andrew; Robinson, Eric

2017-01-01

Experimental and cross-sectional studies indicate that perceptions of the eating and drinking behavior of one's peers (perceived descriptive peer norms) are associated with the types, frequency and quantity of food, and beverages a person chooses to consume. At present, we know very little about the longitudinal association between perceived descriptive peer norms and future eating or drinking behavior. In this study, we examined whether perceived descriptive peer norms for different food/beverage types predicted frequency of consumption of food/beverages in university students. Three hundred and forty participants completed measures at baseline and follow-up for frequency of consumption of cakes/pastries, sugar containing beverages, and alcoholic beverages, as well as measures of perceived descriptive peer norms at both time points. Perceived descriptive peer norms predicted consumption of pastries/cakes at follow up when controlling for changes in these perceptions over time; believing that one's peers frequently consumed cakes/pastries was associated with an increased frequency of consumption over time, although the magnitude of this effect was small. There was no significant association between perceived descriptive peer norms and changes in frequency of consumption of sugar containing beverages or alcohol over time. In the present longitudinal study of young adults, beliefs about how often one's peers eat or drink specific food and beverages types had limited effect on future eating and drinking behavior. PMID:28167922

The Compensatory ADHD Behaviors Scale (CABS): Development and Initial Validation.

PubMed

Castagna, Peter J; Roye, Scott; Calamia, Matthew

2018-05-01

Several measures are available that assess inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity, and executive functioning deficits. Treatments for adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and skill-based academic interventions focus on improving compensatory strategies to ameliorate functional impairment; however, no measure exists that examines the compensatory behaviors adults utilize to compensate for the functional deficits associated with inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. The current study aimed to determine the psychometric properties of the Compensatory ADHD Behaviors Scale (CABS). Five-hundred participants ( M age = 36.83, SD = 11.57) completed measures of ADHD symptomatology, executive functioning, functional impairment, mood disorder symptoms, and the CABS. Analyses revealed that scales assessing both use and effectiveness of compensatory behaviors subscales had similar factor structures, reflecting present- and future-oriented behaviors. The present-, but not future-oriented, behaviors significantly related to ADHD symptomatology, executive dysfunction, and functional impairment; effectiveness of present-oriented compensatory behaviors demonstrated incremental validity in predicting impairment. Compensatory strategies may be a useful variable to measure when examining functional impairment associated with inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. The current study provides preliminary evidence of the ability of CABS to validly measure various strategies associated with (clinical and subclinical) ADHD symptomatology, executive functioning, and overall impairment.

Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

PubMed

Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

2004-01-01

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

Youth Offender Care Needs Assessment Tool (YO-CNAT): an actuarial risk assessment tool for predicting problematic child-rearing situations in juvenile offenders on the basis of police records.

PubMed

van der Put, Claudia E; Stams, Geert Jan J M

2013-12-01

In the juvenile justice system, much attention is paid to estimating the risk for recidivism among juvenile offenders. However, it is also important to estimate the risk for problematic child-rearing situations (care needs) in juvenile offenders, because these problems are not always related to recidivism. In the present study, an actuarial care needs assessment tool for juvenile offenders, the Youth Offender Care Needs Assessment Tool (YO-CNAT), was developed to predict the probability of (a) a future supervision order imposed by the child welfare agency, (b) a future entitlement to care indicated by the youth care agency, and (c) future incidents involving child abuse, domestic violence, and/or sexual norm trespassing behavior at the juvenile's address. The YO-CNAT has been developed for use by the police and is based solely on information available in police registration systems. It is designed to assist a police officer without clinical expertise in making a quick assessment of the risk for problematic child-rearing situations. The YO-CNAT was developed on a sample of 1,955 juvenile offenders and was validated on another sample of 2,045 juvenile offenders. The predictive validity (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve) scores ranged between .70 (for predicting future entitlement to care) and .75 (for predicting future worrisome incidents at the juvenile's address); therefore, the predictive accuracy of the test scores of the YO-CNAT was sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police in deciding to refer a juvenile offender to the youth care agency for further assessment into care needs.

Effects of viewing relational aggression on television on aggressive behavior in adolescents: A three-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Coyne, Sarah M

2016-02-01

Most researchers on media and aggression have examined the behavioral effects of viewing physical aggression in the media. Conversely, in the current study, I examined longitudinal associations between viewing relational aggression on TV and subsequent aggressive behavior. Participants included 467 adolescents who completed a number of different questionnaires involving media and aggression at 3 different time points. Results revealed that viewing relational aggression on TV was longitudinally associated with future relational aggression. However, early levels of relational aggression did not predict future exposure to televised relational aggression. Conversely, there was a bidirectional relationship between TV violence and physical aggression over time. No longitudinal evidence was found for a general effect of viewing TV, as all significant media effects were specific to the type of aggression viewed. These results support the general aggression model and suggest that viewing relational aggression in the media can have a long-term effect on aggressive behavior during adolescence. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

The Development and Validation of the Dieting Intentions Scale (DIS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cruwys, Tegan; Platow, Michael J.; Rieger, Elizabeth; Byrne, Don G.

2013-01-01

This article presents information on the psychometric properties of the Dieting Intentions Scale (DIS), a new scale of dieting that predicts future behavioral efforts to lose weight. We begin by reviewing recent research indicating theoretical and empirical problems with traditional approaches to measuring dieting. The DIS addresses several of…

Digital Coding and the Self-Proving Message

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dettering, Richard

1971-01-01

Author suggests that digital Communication", which relies on arbitrary coding elements, like the phones of speech," overshadows the importance of the analogic symbolism people use more extensively than realized. Non-verbal messages can be more convincing than verbal and can be used to predict patterns of future behavior. (Author/PD)

Computer Aided Evaluation of Higher Education Tutors' Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xenos, Michalis; Papadopoulos, Thanos

2007-01-01

This article presents a method for computer-aided tutor evaluation: Bayesian Networks are used for organizing the collected data about tutors and for enabling accurate estimations and predictions about future tutor behavior. The model provides indications about each tutor's strengths and weaknesses, which enables the evaluator to exploit strengths…

Predictor Combination in Binary Decision-Making Situations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGrath, Robert E.

2008-01-01

Professional psychologists are often confronted with the task of making binary decisions about individuals, such as predictions about future behavior or employee selection. Test users familiar with linear models and Bayes's theorem are likely to assume that the accuracy of decisions is consistently improved by combination of outcomes across valid…

Early stress and human behavioral development: emerging evolutionary perspectives.

PubMed

Del Giudice, M

2014-08-01

Stress experienced early in life exerts a powerful, lasting influence on development. Converging empirical findings show that stressful experiences become deeply embedded in the child's neurobiology, with an astonishing range of long-term effects on cognition, emotion, and behavior. In contrast with the prevailing view that such effects are the maladaptive outcomes of 'toxic' stress, adaptive models regard them as manifestations of evolved developmental plasticity. In this paper, I offer a brief introduction to adaptive models of early stress and human behavioral development, with emphasis on recent theoretical contributions and emerging concepts in the field. I begin by contrasting dysregulation models of early stress with their adaptive counterparts; I then introduce life history theory as a unifying framework, and review recent work on predictive adaptive responses (PARs) in human life history development. In particular, I discuss the distinction between forecasting the future state of the environment (external prediction) and forecasting the future state of the organism (internal prediction). Next, I present the adaptive calibration model, an integrative model of individual differences in stress responsivity based on life history concepts. I conclude by examining how maternal-fetal conflict may shape the physiology of prenatal stress and its adaptive and maladaptive effects on postnatal development. In total, I aim to show how theoretical work from evolutionary biology is reshaping the way we think about the role of stress in human development, and provide researchers with an up-to-date conceptual map of this fascinating and rapidly evolving field.

Normative Perceptions and Past-year Consequences as Predictors of Subjective Evaluations and Weekly Drinking Behavior

PubMed Central

Merrill, Jennifer E.; Read, Jennifer P.; Colder, Craig R.

2013-01-01

Problem drinking during the college years continues to be an important area of study. Subjective evaluations of consequences have recently been demonstrated to predict future drinking behavior; however, what predicts those evaluations is yet unknown. Social Learning Theory (SLT) provides a guiding framework in this study with primary aims to investigate whether individual differences in past experience with and normative perceptions of alcohol consequences predict subjective evaluations (i.e., the extent to which consequences are perceived as negative, aversive, or severe) and weekly drinking behavior. We also test whether evaluations mediate the influence of past consequences and norms on weekly drinking behavior. Following a baseline assessment, participants (N=96 regularly drinking college students, 52% female) completed ten weekly web-based surveys on previous week alcohol use, consequences, and subjective evaluations of those consequences. A series of hierarchical linear models were used to test hypotheses. Most mediational pathways were not supported – weekly level evaluations do not appear to fully explain the effect of norms or past experience on weekly level drinking behavior. However, results demonstrated that normative perceptions of and past experience with consequences were associated with both weekly drinking behavior and subjective evaluations, and evaluations remained significant predictors of alcohol use behavior after accounting for these important between-person influences. Findings support the importance placed by SLT on cognition in drinking behavior, and suggest that norms for consequences and subjective evaluations may be appropriate targets of intervention in college students. PMID:23899424

Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery

PubMed Central

Tucker, Jalie A.; Cheong, JeeWon; Chandler, Susan D.; Lambert, Brice H.; Pietrzak, Brittney; Kwok, Heather; Davies, Susan L.

2016-01-01

Background As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. The present study compared the predictive utility of this money-based “Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure” (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts. Methods Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of pre-resolution drinking practices and problems; analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks); and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the pre-resolution year. Results Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced pre-resolution allocations to drinking and savings (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.02 ∼ 3.08, p < .05), suggesting it is associated with longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence. Conclusions The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of behavioral allocation. Stable low risk drinking, but not abstinence, requires such regulatory processes. PMID:27775161

A Predictive Statistical Model of Navy Career Enlisted Retention Behavior Utilizing Economic Variables.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

career retention rates , and to predict future career retention rates in the Navy. The statistical model utilizes economic variables as predictors...The model developed r has a high correlation with Navy career retention rates . The problem of Navy career retention has not been adequately studied, 0D...findings indicate Navy policymakers must be cognizant of the relationships of economic factors to Navy career retention rates . Accrzsiofl ’or NTIS GRA&I

Reliability and Validity of the Work and Well-Being Inventory (WBI) for Employees.

PubMed

Vendrig, A A; Schaafsma, F G

2018-06-01

Purpose The purpose of this study is to measure the psychometric properties of the Work and Wellbeing Inventory (WBI) (in Dutch: VAR-2), a screening tool that is used within occupational health care and rehabilitation. Our research question focused on the reliability and validity of this inventory. Methods Over the years seven different samples of workers, patients and sick listed workers varying in size between 89 and 912 participants (total: 2514), were used to measure the test-retest reliability, the internal consistency, the construct and concurrent validity, and the criterion and predictive validity. Results The 13 scales displayed good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The constructive validity of the WBI could clearly be demonstrated in both patients and healthy workers. Confirmative factor analyses revealed a CFI >.90 for all scales. The depression scale predicted future work absenteeism (>6 weeks) because of a common mental disorder in healthy workers. The job strain scale and the illness behavior scale predicted long term absenteeism (>3 months) in workers with short-term absenteeism. The illness behavior scale moderately predicted return to work in rehab patients attending an intensive multidisciplinary program. Conclusions The WBI is a valid and reliable tool for occupational health practitioners to screen for risk factors for prolonged or future sickness absence. With this tool they will have reliable indications for further advice and interventions to restore the work ability.

Can We Use Neurocognition to Predict Repetition of Self-Harm, and Why Might This Be Clinically Useful? A Perspective

PubMed Central

de Cates, Angharad N.; Broome, Matthew R.

2016-01-01

Over 800,000 people die by suicide each year globally, with non-fatal self-harm 20 times more common. With each episode of self-harm, the risks of future self-harm and suicide increase, as well as personal and healthcare costs. Therefore, early delineation of those at high risk of future self-harm is important. Historically, research has focused on clinical and demographic factors, but risk assessments based on these have low sensitivity to predict repetition. Various neurocognitive factors have been associated with self-harming behavior, but it is less certain if we can use these factors clinically (i) as risk markers to predict future self-harm and (ii) to become therapeutic targets for interventions. Recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses of behavioral tasks and fMRI studies point to an emerging hypothesis for neurocognition in self-harm: an underactive pre-frontal cortex is unable to respond appropriately to non-emotional stimuli, or inhibit a hyperactive emotionally-/threat-driven limbic system. However, there is almost no imaging data examining repetition of self-harm. Extrapolating from the non-repetition data, there may be several potential neurocognitive targets for interventions to prevent repeat self-harm: cognitive training; pharmacological regimes to promote non-emotional neurocognition; or other techniques, such as repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation. Hence, there is an urgent need for imaging studies examining repetition and to test specific hypotheses. Until we investigate the functional neurocognitive basis underlying repetition of self-harm in a systematic manner using second-generational imaging techniques, we will be unable to inform third-generational imaging and potential future clinical applications. PMID:26858659

Racial bias shapes social reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Lindström, Björn; Selbing, Ida; Molapour, Tanaz; Olsson, Andreas

2014-03-01

Both emotional facial expressions and markers of racial-group belonging are ubiquitous signals in social interaction, but little is known about how these signals together affect future behavior through learning. To address this issue, we investigated how emotional (threatening or friendly) in-group and out-group faces reinforced behavior in a reinforcement-learning task. We asked whether reinforcement learning would be modulated by intergroup attitudes (i.e., racial bias). The results showed that individual differences in racial bias critically modulated reinforcement learning. As predicted, racial bias was associated with more efficiently learned avoidance of threatening out-group individuals. We used computational modeling analysis to quantitatively delimit the underlying processes affected by social reinforcement. These analyses showed that racial bias modulates the rate at which exposure to threatening out-group individuals is transformed into future avoidance behavior. In concert, these results shed new light on the learning processes underlying social interaction with racial-in-group and out-group individuals.

Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland.

PubMed

Kłopocka, Aneta Maria

2017-01-01

Consumer confidence plays an important role in households' decision-making processes. This study investigates the effects of consumer confidence on household saving and borrowing behavior that are unsatisfactorily considered in previous discussions. The questions of interest are first, whether indexes of consumer confidence have any predictive power on their own for future household saving and borrowing rates, and second, whether they contain information about future household saving and borrowing rates aside from the information contained in other available indicators. In addition to aggregate confidence indicators, their components are used to provide more precise information. Overall, the multiple linear regression analysis (OLS technique) of Polish time-series data gives positive answers to both questions. This finding supports the recommendation of combining the strengths of objective indicators (such as economic fundamentals) and subjective indicators (such as consumer confidence) to improve household financial behavior forecasts.

Uncertainty in Wildfire Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, M.; Cohen, J. D.

2013-12-01

The challenge of predicting or modeling fire behavior is well recognized by scientists and managers who attempt predictions of fire spread rate or growth. At the scale of the spreading fire, the uncertainty in winds, moisture, fuel structure, and fire location make accurate predictions difficult, and the non-linear response of fire spread to these conditions means that average behavior is poorly represented by average environmental parameters. Even more difficult are estimations of threshold behaviors (e.g. spread/no-spread, crown fire initiation, ember generation and spotting) because the fire responds as a step-function to small changes in one or more environmental variables, translating to dynamical feedbacks and unpredictability. Recent research shows that ignition of fuel particles, itself a threshold phenomenon, depends on flame contact which is absolutely not steady or uniform. Recent studies of flame structure in both spreading and stationary fires reveals that much of the non-steadiness of the flames as they contact fuel particles results from buoyant instabilities that produce quasi-periodic flame structures. With fuel particle ignition produced by time-varying heating and short-range flame contact, future improvements in fire behavior modeling will likely require statistical approaches to deal with the uncertainty at all scales, including the level of heat transfer, the fuel arrangement, and weather.

Specificity of early movie effects on adolescent sexual behavior and alcohol use.

PubMed

O'Hara, Ross E; Gibbons, Frederick X; Li, Zhigang; Gerrard, Meg; Sargent, James D

2013-11-01

Adolescents' movie sex exposure (MSE) and movie alcohol exposure (MAE) have been shown to influence later sexual behavior and drinking, respectively. No study to date, however, has tested whether these effects generalize across behaviors. This study examined the concurrent influences of early (i.e., before age 16) MSE and MAE on subsequent risky sex and alcohol use among a national sample of 1228 U.S. adolescents. Participants reported their health behaviors and movie viewing up to six times between 2003 and 2009 in telephone interviews. The Beach method was used to create a population-based estimate of each participant's MSE and MAE, which were then entered into a structural equation model (SEM) to predict lifetime risky sex and past month alcohol use at ages 18-21. For both men and women, MAE predicted alcohol use, mediated by age of initiation of heavy episodic drinking (HED) and age of sexual debut; MAE also predicted risky sex via age of sexual debut. Among men only, MSE indirectly predicted risky sex and alcohol use. Findings indicated that early exposure to risk content from movies had both specific and general effects on later risk-taking, but gender differences were evident: for men, MSE was a stronger predictor than MAE, but for women, only MAE predicted later risk behavior. These results have implications for future media research, prevention programs for adolescent sex and alcohol use, and movie ratings that can guide parents' decisions as to which movies are appropriate for their children. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Specificity of Early Movie Effects on Adolescent Sexual Behavior and Alcohol Use

PubMed Central

O’Hara, Ross E.; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Li, Zhigang; Gerrard, Meg; Sargent, James D.

2013-01-01

Adolescents’ movie sex exposure (MSE) and movie alcohol exposure (MAE) have been shown to influence later sexual behavior and drinking, respectively. No study to date, however, has tested whether these effects generalize across behaviors. This study examined the concurrent influences of early (i.e., before age 16) MSE and MAE on subsequent risky sex and alcohol use among a national sample of 1,228 U.S. adolescents. Participants reported their health behaviors and movie viewing up to six times between 2003 and 2009 in telephone interviews. The Beach method was used to create a population-based estimate of each participant’s MSE and MAE, which were then entered into a structural equation model (SEM) to predict lifetime risky sex and past month alcohol use at ages 18–21. For both men and women, MAE predicted alcohol use, mediated by age of initiation of heavy episodic drinking (HED) and age of sexual debut; MAE also predicted risky sex via age of sexual debut. Among men only, MSE indirectly predicted risky sex and alcohol use. Findings indicated that early exposure to risk content from movies had both specific and general effects on later risk-taking, but gender differences were evident: for men, MSE was a stronger predictor than MAE, but for women, only MAE predicted later risk behavior. These results have implications for future media research, prevention programs for adolescent sex and alcohol use, and movie ratings that can guide parents’ decisions as to which movies are appropriate for their children. PMID:24034968

Theory of Mind: A Neural Prediction Problem

PubMed Central

Koster-Hale, Jorie; Saxe, Rebecca

2014-01-01

Predictive coding posits that neural systems make forward-looking predictions about incoming information. Neural signals contain information not about the currently perceived stimulus, but about the difference between the observed and the predicted stimulus. We propose to extend the predictive coding framework from high-level sensory processing to the more abstract domain of theory of mind; that is, to inferences about others’ goals, thoughts, and personalities. We review evidence that, across brain regions, neural responses to depictions of human behavior, from biological motion to trait descriptions, exhibit a key signature of predictive coding: reduced activity to predictable stimuli. We discuss how future experiments could distinguish predictive coding from alternative explanations of this response profile. This framework may provide an important new window on the neural computations underlying theory of mind. PMID:24012000

The behavioral economics of will in recovery from addiction.

PubMed

Monterosso, John; Ainslie, George

2007-09-01

Behavioral economic studies demonstrate that rewards are discounted proportionally with their delay (hyperbolic discounting). Hyperbolic discounting implies temporary preference for smaller rewards when they are imminent, and this concept has been widely considered by researchers interested in the causes of addictive behavior. Far less consideration has been given to the fact that systematic preference reversal also predicts various self-control phenomena, which may also be analyzed from a behavioral economic perspective. Here we summarize self-control phenomena predicted by hyperbolic discounting, particularly with application to the field of addiction. Of greatest interest is the phenomenon of choice bundling, an increase in motivation to wait for delayed rewards that can be expected to result from making choices in whole categories. Specifically, when a person's expectations about her own future behavior are conditional upon her current behavior, the value of these expectations is added to the contingencies for the current behavior, resulting in reduced impulsivity. Hyperbolic discounting provides a bottom-up basis for the intuitive learning of choice bundling, the properties of which match common descriptions of willpower. We suggest that the bundling effect can also be discerned in the advice of 12-step programs.

The behavioral economics of will in recovery from addiction

PubMed Central

Monterosso, John; Ainslie, George

2007-01-01

Behavioral economic studies demonstrate that rewards are discounted proportionally with their delay (hyperbolic discounting). Hyperbolic discounting implies temporary preference for smaller rewards when they are imminent, and this concept has been widely considered by researchers interested in the causes of addictive behavior. Far less consideration has been given to the fact that systematic preference reversal also predicts various self-control phenomena, which may also be analyzed from a behavioral economic perspective. Here we summarize self-control phenomena predicted by hyperbolic discounting, particularly with application to the field of addiction. Of greatest interest is the phenomenon of choice bundling, an increase in motivation to wait for delayed rewards that can be expected to result from making choices in whole categories. Specifically, when a person’s expectations about her own future behavior are conditional upon her current behavior, the value of these expectations is added to the contingencies for the current behavior, resulting in reduced impulsivity. Hyperbolic discounting provides a bottom-up basis for the intuitive learning of choice bundling, the properties of which match common descriptions of willpower. We suggest that the bundling effect can also be discerned in the advice of 12-step programs. PMID:17034958

Suicide Among Soldiers: A Review of Psychosocial Risk and Protective Factors

PubMed Central

Nock, Matthew K.; Deming, Charlene A.; Fullerton, Carol S.; Gilman, Stephen E.; Goldenberg, Matthew; Kessler, Ronald C.; McCarroll, James E.; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Peterson, Christopher; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stanley, Barbara; Ursano, Robert J.

2014-01-01

Suicide is difficult to predict and prevent and remains a leading cause of death worldwide. Although soldiers historically have had a suicide rate well below that of the general population, the suicide rate among members of the U.S. Army has increased markedly over the past several years and now exceeds that of the general population. This paper reviews psychosocial factors known to be associated with the increased risk of suicidal behavior in general and describes how some of these factors may be especially important in understanding suicide among soldiers. Moving forward, the prevention of suicide requires additional research aimed at: (a) better describing when, where, and among whom suicidal behavior occurs, (b) using exploratory studies to discover new risk and protective factors, (c) developing new methods of predicting suicidal behavior that synthesize information about modifiable risk and protective factors from multiple domains, and (d) understanding the mechanisms and pathways through which suicidal behavior develops. Although the scope and severity of this problem is daunting, the increasing attention and dedication to this issue by the Armed Forces, scientists, and society provide hope for our ability to better predict and prevent these tragic outcomes in the future. PMID:23631542

Progression and effect of cognitive-behavioral changes in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Bock, Meredith; Duong, Y-Nhy; Kim, Anthony; Allen, Isabel; Murphy, Jennifer; Lomen-Hoerth, Catherine

2017-12-01

To prospectively evaluate the progression of cognitive-behavioral function in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and examine the association of cognitive-behavioral deficits with disease progression, patient quality of life (QOL), and caregiver burden. We evaluated cognitive-behavioral function using the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Cognitive Behavioral Screen at enrollment and after 7 months in a cohort of patients with ALS. Paired t tests were used to evaluate the change in the 2 assessments. Linear regression and Kruskal-Wallis tests were applied to investigate how initial cognitive or behavioral status related to outcomes. The mean test-retest interval was 6.8 months (SD 1.6). Cognitive status of the study population (n = 49) overall did not change over the study period ( p = 0.06) despite progression of motor weakness ( p < 0.001), though small subsets of the sample demonstrate cognitive change. Patients initially classified as behaviorally normal showed increased behavioral problems over time ( t = -2.8, p = 0.009). Decline in cognitive (β = -1.3, p = 0.03) and behavioral (β = -0.76, p = 0.002) status predicted increasing caregiver burden. Behavioral abnormalities predicted decline in forced vital capacity and ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised score ( p = 0.008, 0.012) in the study population and patient QOL in the most severely affected group ( t = 4.3, p = 0.003). Cognitive-behavioral change is a key aspect of disease heterogeneity in ALS. Executive function in ALS overall remains stable over 7 months as detected by an administered screening tool. However, patients may develop caregiver-reported behavioral symptoms in that time period. Screening for caregiver-reported symptoms has a particular utility in predicting future clinical decline, increased caregiver burden, and worsening patient QOL.

Using the theory of planned behavior to predict two types of snack food consumption among Midwestern upper elementary children: implications for practice.

PubMed

Branscum, Paul; Sharma, Manoj

This study examined the extent to which constructs of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) can predict the consumption of two types of snack foods among elementary school children. A 15-item instrument tested for validity and reliability measuring TPB constructs was developed and administered to 167 children. Snack foods were evaluated using a modified 24-hour recall method. On average, children consumed 302 calories from snack foods per day. Stepwise multiple regression found that attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived control accounted for 44.7% of the variance for intentions. Concurrently, intentions accounted for 11.3% of the variance for calorically-dense snack food consumption and 8.9% of the variance for fruit and vegetable snack consumption. Results suggest that the theory of planned behavior is an efficacious theory for these two behaviors. Future interventions should consider using this theoretical framework and aim to enhance children's attitudes, perceived control, and subjective norms towards snack food consumption.

Calculation of thermomechanical fatigue life based on isothermal behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.; Saltsman, James F.

1987-01-01

The isothermal and thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) crack initiation response of a hypothetical material was analyzed. Expected thermomechanical behavior was evaluated numerically based on simple, isothermal, cyclic stress-strain - time characteristics and on strainrange versus cyclic life relations that have been assigned to the material. The attempt was made to establish basic minimum requirements for the development of a physically accurate TMF life-prediction model. A worthy method must be able to deal with the simplest of conditions: that is, those for which thermal cycling, per se, introduces no damage mechanisms other than those found in isothermal behavior. Under these assumed conditions, the TMF life should be obtained uniquely from known isothermal behavior. The ramifications of making more complex assumptions will be dealt with in future studies. Although analyses are only in their early stages, considerable insight has been gained in understanding the characteristics of several existing high-temperature life-prediction methods. The present work indicates that the most viable damage parameter is based on the inelastic strainrange.

Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

PubMed

Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

2017-06-01

Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

Perceived Sexual Control, Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies and Behavior Predict Substance-Related Sexual Revictimization

PubMed Central

Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B.; DeNardi, Kathleen A.; Walker, Dave P.

2013-01-01

Objectives Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Methods Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. Results The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Conclusions Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:23312991

Older adults' evaluations of middle-aged children's attempts to initiate discussion of care needs.

PubMed

Fowler, Craig; Fisher, Carla L; Pitts, Margaret J

2014-01-01

We explored how older adults evaluated the strategies used by an adult child to initiate discussion of future care needs, and subsequently, whether these judgments affected older adults' willingness to engage in discussions about eldercare if approached in a similar fashion by one of their own children. One hundred and thirty older adults were randomly assigned to read one of four scripts depicting efforts by a middle-aged daughter to raise the topic of future care needs with her mother by implementing a variety of facework behaviors. Scripts manipulated the degree to which the daughter conveyed respect for her mother's desires for autonomy (negative face) and connection (positive face). The daughter's facework significantly predicted older parents' evaluation of her as supportive, which in turn predicted their willingness to discuss future care needs with one of their own children if they were to approach the conversation in a similar way.

Pathways to Late-Life Suicidal Behavior: Cluster Analysis and Predictive Validation of Suicidal Behavior in a Sample of Older Adults With Major Depression.

PubMed

Szanto, Katalin; Galfalvy, Hanga; Vanyukov, Polina M; Keilp, John G; Dombrovski, Alexandre Y

Clinical heterogeneity is a key challenge to understanding suicidal risk, as different pathways to suicidal behavior are likely to exist. We aimed to identify such pathways by uncovering latent classes of late-life depression cases and relating them to prior and future suicidal behavior. Data were collected from June 2010 to September 2015. In this longitudinal study we examined distinct associations of clinical and cognitive/decision-making factors with suicidal behavior in 194 older (50+ years) nondemented, depressed patients; 57 nonpsychiatric healthy controls provided benchmark data. The DSM-IV was used to establish diagnostic criteria. We identified multivariate patterns of risk factors, defining clusters based on personality traits, perceived social support, cognitive performance, and decision-making in an analysis blinded to participants' history of suicidal behavior. We validated these clusters using past and prospective suicidal ideation and behavior. Of 5 clusters identified, 3 were associated with high risk for suicidal behavior: (1) cognitive deficits, dysfunctional personality, low social support, high willingness to delay future rewards, and overrepresentation of high-lethality attempters; (2) high-personality pathology (ie, low self-esteem), minimal or no cognitive deficits, and overrepresentation of low-lethality attempters and ideators; (3) cognitive deficits, inability to delay future rewards, and similar distribution of high- and low-lethality attempters. There were significant between-cluster differences in number (P < .001) and lethality (P = .002) of past suicide attempts and in the likelihood of future suicide attempts (P = .010, 30 attempts by 22 patients, 2 fatal) and emergency psychiatric hospitalizations to prevent suicide (P = .005, 31 participants). Three pathways to suicidal behavior in older patients were found, marked by (1) very high levels of cognitive and dispositional risk factors suggesting a dementia prodrome, (2) dysfunctional personality traits, and (3) impulsive decision-making and cognitive deficits. © Copyright 2018 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Predicting impulsive self-injurious behavior in a sample of adult women.

PubMed

Black, Emma B; Mildred, Helen

2013-01-01

Different types of self-injury have been classified as reflecting impulsive and compulsive characteristics (article by Simeon and Favazza [Self-injurious Behaviors: Assessment and Treatment {pp 1-28}. Washington, DC: American Psychiatric Publishing, Inc, 2001]). The current research used a prospective design to evaluate whether there is a progression between these different types of self-injurious behaviors (SIB) over time. Support was found for a progression from compulsive SIB (including hair pulling, nail-biting, skin picking, scratching, and preventing wounds from healing) to impulsive SIB (including cutting, burning, carving, pin sticking, and punching) in a group of adult women (N = 106). Other factors hypothesized to be linked to this outcome were disordered eating, age, and personality facets of impulsivity (specifically, urgency and lack of perseverance). Of these variables, only urgency positively predicted impulsive SIB at the study's conclusion. These findings are discussed, limitations of the study are noted, and directions for future research are outlined.

Autonomous Motivation and Fruit/Vegetable Intake in Parent–Adolescent Dyads

PubMed Central

Dwyer, Laura A.; Bolger, Niall; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Patrick, Heather; Oh, April Y.; Nebeling, Linda C.; Hennessy, Erin

2017-01-01

Introduction Autonomous motivation (motivation to engage in a behavior because of personal choice, interest, or value) is often associated with health behaviors. The present study contributes to research on motivation and eating behaviors by examining: (1) how autonomous motivation is correlated within parent–adolescent dyads; and (2) whether parent- and adolescent-reported autonomous motivation predicts the parent–adolescent correlation in fruit and vegetable (FV) intake frequency. Methods Data were drawn from the Family Life, Activity, Sun, Health, and Eating (FLASHE) Study, a cross-sectional U.S. survey of parent–adolescent dyads led by the National Cancer Institute and fielded between April and October 2014. In 2016, data were analyzed from dyads who had responses on a six-item self-report measure of daily frequency of FV consumption and a two-item self-report measure of autonomous motivation for consuming FVs. Results Parents' and adolescents' reports of autonomous motivation and FV intake frequency were positively correlated. Both parents' and adolescents' autonomous motivation predicted higher levels of their own FV intake frequency and that of their dyad partner (p-values ≤0.001). These effects of autonomous motivation explained 22.6% of the parent–adolescent correlation in FV intake frequency. Actor effects (one's motivation predicting their own FV intake frequency) were stronger than partner effects (one's motivation predicting their partner's FV intake frequency). Conclusions Parent–adolescent similarity in autonomous motivation for healthy eating may contribute to similarity in eating behaviors. Future research should further examine how individual-level health behavior correlates influence health behaviors within dyads. PMID:28526363

Autonomous Motivation and Fruit/Vegetable Intake in Parent-Adolescent Dyads.

PubMed

Dwyer, Laura A; Bolger, Niall; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Patrick, Heather; Oh, April Y; Nebeling, Linda C; Hennessy, Erin

2017-06-01

Autonomous motivation (motivation to engage in a behavior because of personal choice, interest, or value) is often associated with health behaviors. The present study contributes to research on motivation and eating behaviors by examining (1) how autonomous motivation is correlated within parent-adolescent dyads and (2) whether parent- and adolescent-reported autonomous motivation predicts the parent-adolescent correlation in fruit and vegetable (FV) intake frequency. Data were drawn from the Family Life, Activity, Sun, Health, and Eating (FLASHE) Study, a cross-sectional U.S. survey of parent-adolescent dyads led by the National Cancer Institute and fielded between April and October 2014. In 2016, data were analyzed from dyads who had responses on a six-item self-report measure of daily frequency of FV consumption and a two-item self-report measure of autonomous motivation for consuming FVs. Parents' and adolescents' reports of autonomous motivation and FV intake frequency were positively correlated. Both parents' and adolescents' autonomous motivation predicted higher levels of their own FV intake frequency and that of their dyad partner (p-values ≤0.001). These effects of autonomous motivation explained 22.6% of the parent-adolescent correlation in FV intake frequency. Actor effects (one's motivation predicting their own FV intake frequency) were stronger than partner effects (one's motivation predicting their partner's FV intake frequency). Parent-adolescent similarity in autonomous motivation for healthy eating may contribute to similarity in eating behaviors. Future research should further examine how individual-level health behavior correlates influence health behaviors within dyads. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The relationship between wisdom and abstinence behaviors in women in recovery from substance abuse.

PubMed

Digangi, Julia A; Jason, Leonard A; Mendoza, Leslie; Miller, Steve A; Contreras, Richard

2013-01-01

Wisdom is theorized to be an important construct in recovery from substance abuse. In order to explore the role of wisdom in substance abuse recovery behaviors, the present study had two goals. First, it sought to examine the factor structure of a wisdom scale, the Foundational Value Scale (FVS) in a community sample of women in recovery from substance abuse. Second, the study examined how wisdom predicted the women's beliefs about their ability to abstain from future substance use. 116 women in recovery from substance abuse disorders were recruited from self-run recovery homes and a substance abuse recovery convention. Results from an exploratory factor analysis indicated that a modified version of the FVS has good internal consistency reliability and is composed of three wisdom-related dimensions. The three factors were then used to create a higher-order wisdom factor in a structural equation model (SEM) that was used to predict abstinence self-efficacy behaviors. Results from the SEM showed that the wisdom factor was predictive of greater abstinence self-efficacy behaviors. The FVS was found to be a reliable measure with women in recovery from substance abuse. In addition, wisdom predicted beliefs about self-efficacy such that those who reported higher levels of wisdom felt more confident in their abilities to abstain from alcohol. The results of this study indicate that wisdom is an important construct in the abstinence behaviors of women who are in recovery from substance abuse disorders.

A proposed food breakdown classification system to predict food behavior during gastric digestion.

PubMed

Bornhorst, Gail M; Ferrua, Maria J; Singh, R Paul

2015-05-01

The pharmaceutical industry has implemented the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS), which is used to classify drug products based on their solubility and intestinal permeability. The BCS can help predict drug behavior in vivo, the rate-limiting mechanism of absorption, and the likelihood of an in vitro-in vivo correlation. Based on this analysis, we have proposed a Food Breakdown Classification System (FBCS) framework that can be used to classify solid foods according to their initial hardness and their rate of softening during physiological gastric conditions. The proposed FBCS will allow for prediction of food behavior during gastric digestion. The applicability of the FBCS framework in differentiating between dissimilar solid foods was demonstrated using four example foods: raw carrot, boiled potato, white rice, and brown rice. The initial hardness and rate of softening parameter (softening half time) were determined for these foods as well as their hypothesized FBCS class. In addition, we have provided future suggestions as to the methodological and analytical challenges that need to be overcome prior to widespread use and adoption of this classification system. The FBCS gives a framework that may be used to classify food products based on their material properties and their behavior during in vitro gastric digestion, and may also be used to predict in vivo food behavior. As consumer demand increases for functional and "pharma" food products, the food industry will need widespread testing of food products for their structural and functional performance during digestion. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

Solidarity.com: is there a link between offline behavior and online donations?

PubMed

Eller, Anja

2008-10-01

Solidarity websites, such as The Hunger Site, where people can donate food at no financial cost and minimal effort, have become immensely popular and effective since 1999. These new forms of philanthropy are characterized by wide participation and direct assistance and feedback. The present longitudinal, quasi-experimental study aimed to examine whether online solidarity can be predicted by offline contact with, attitudes about, and altruistic behavior tendencies towards a population in need, asylum seekers. Fifty-seven university students completed two surveys, separated by 1 year. Prior to T1, only 9% of respondents had visited solidarity websites, while at T2 47% reported clicking. Multiple regression analysis showed that T2 visits to solidarity websites were (negatively) predicted by T1 quantity of contact, and marginally, by T1 general evaluation of asylum seekers. These long-term, offline-to-online effects are intriguing, although there were no effects of offline contact quality and altruistic behavior tendencies. Future research should further investigate the causal direction between offline and online behavior and the factors that might influence the link between offline and online attitudes and behavior.

A time series based sequence prediction algorithm to detect activities of daily living in smart home.

PubMed

Marufuzzaman, M; Reaz, M B I; Ali, M A M; Rahman, L F

2015-01-01

The goal of smart homes is to create an intelligent environment adapting the inhabitants need and assisting the person who needs special care and safety in their daily life. This can be reached by collecting the ADL (activities of daily living) data and further analysis within existing computing elements. In this research, a very recent algorithm named sequence prediction via enhanced episode discovery (SPEED) is modified and in order to improve accuracy time component is included. The modified SPEED or M-SPEED is a sequence prediction algorithm, which modified the previous SPEED algorithm by using time duration of appliance's ON-OFF states to decide the next state. M-SPEED discovered periodic episodes of inhabitant behavior, trained it with learned episodes, and made decisions based on the obtained knowledge. The results showed that M-SPEED achieves 96.8% prediction accuracy, which is better than other time prediction algorithms like PUBS, ALZ with temporal rules and the previous SPEED. Since human behavior shows natural temporal patterns, duration times can be used to predict future events more accurately. This inhabitant activity prediction system will certainly improve the smart homes by ensuring safety and better care for elderly and handicapped people.

Drinking, smoking, and educational achievement: Cross-lagged associations from adolescence to adulthood

PubMed Central

Latvala, Antti; Rose, Richard J.; Pulkkinen, Lea; Dick, Danielle M.; Korhonen, Tellervo; Kaprio, Jaakko

2014-01-01

Background Adolescent substance use is associated with lower educational achievement but the directionality of the association remains uncertain. We analyzed data on drinking, smoking and educational achievement to study the associations between substance use and education from early adolescence to young adulthood. Methods Longitudinal data from four time points (ages 12, 14, 17, and 19-27 years) from a population-based cohort study of Finnish twin individuals were used to estimate bivariate cross-lagged path models for substance use and educational achievement, adjusting for sex, parental covariates, and adolescent externalizing behavior. A total of 4,761 individuals (49.4% females) were included in the analyses. Educational achievement was assessed with teacher-reported grade point average at ages 12 and 14, and with self-reported student status and completed education at age 17 and in young adulthood. From self-reported questionnaire items, frequency of any drinking, frequency of drinking to intoxication, any smoking and daily smoking were analyzed. Results Alcohol use and smoking behaviors at ages 12 and 14 predicted lower educational achievement at later time points even after previous achievement and confounding factors were taken into account. Lower school achievement in adolescence predicted a higher likelihood of engaging in smoking behaviors but did not predict later alcohol use. Higher educational attainment at age 17 predicted more frequent drinking in young adulthood. Conclusions Adolescent drinking behaviors are associated with lower future educational achievement independently of prior achievement, whereas smoking both predicts and is predicted by lower achievement. Early substance use indexes elevated risk for poor educational outcomes. PMID:24548801

Using cell deformation and motion to predict forces and collective behavior in morphogenesis.

PubMed

Merkel, Matthias; Manning, M Lisa

2017-07-01

In multi-cellular organisms, morphogenesis translates processes at the cellular scale into tissue deformation at the scale of organs and organisms. To understand how biochemical signaling regulates tissue form and function, we must understand the mechanical forces that shape cells and tissues. Recent progress in developing mechanical models for tissues has led to quantitative predictions for how cell shape changes and polarized cell motility generate forces and collective behavior on the tissue scale. In particular, much insight has been gained by thinking about biological tissues as physical materials composed of cells. Here we review these advances and discuss how they might help shape future experiments in developmental biology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calculating Reuse Distance from Source Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narayanan, Sri Hari Krishna; Hovland, Paul

The efficient use of a system is of paramount importance in high-performance computing. Applications need to be engineered for future systems even before the architecture of such a system is clearly known. Static performance analysis that generates performance bounds is one way to approach the task of understanding application behavior. Performance bounds provide an upper limit on the performance of an application on a given architecture. Predicting cache hierarchy behavior and accesses to main memory is a requirement for accurate performance bounds. This work presents our static reuse distance algorithm to generate reuse distance histograms. We then use these histogramsmore » to predict cache miss rates. Experimental results for kernels studied show that the approach is accurate.« less

How do social norms influence prosocial development?

PubMed

House, Bailey R

2018-04-01

Humans are both highly prosocial and extremely sensitive to social norms, and some theories suggest that norms are necessary to account for uniquely human forms of prosocial behavior and cooperation. Understanding how norms influence prosocial behavior is thus essential if we are to describe the psychology and development of prosocial behavior. In this article I review recent research from across the social sciences that provides (1) a theoretical model of how norms influence prosocial behavior, (2) empirical support for the model based on studies with adults and children, and (3) predictions about the psychological mechanisms through which norms shape prosocial behavior. I conclude by discussing the need for future studies into how prosocial behavior develops through emerging interactions between culturally varying norms, social cognition, emotions, and potentially genes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A unifying theory for top-heavy ecosystem structure in the ocean.

PubMed

Woodson, C Brock; Schramski, John R; Joye, Samantha B

2018-01-02

Size generally dictates metabolic requirements, trophic level, and consequently, ecosystem structure, where inefficient energy transfer leads to bottom-heavy ecosystem structure and biomass decreases as individual size (or trophic level) increases. However, many animals deviate from simple size-based predictions by either adopting generalist predatory behavior, or feeding lower in the trophic web than predicted from their size. Here we show that generalist predatory behavior and lower trophic feeding at large body size increase overall biomass and shift ecosystems from a bottom-heavy pyramid to a top-heavy hourglass shape, with the most biomass accounted for by the largest animals. These effects could be especially dramatic in the ocean, where primary producers are the smallest components of the ecosystem. This approach makes it possible to explore and predict, in the past and in the future, the structure of ocean ecosystems without biomass extraction and other impacts.

Does exercise motivation predict engagement in objectively assessed bouts of moderate-intensity exercise? A self-determination theory perspective.

PubMed

Standage, Martyn; Sebire, Simon J; Loney, Tom

2008-08-01

This study examined the utility of motivation as advanced by self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) in predicting objectively assessed bouts of moderate intensity exercise behavior. Participants provided data pertaining to their exercise motivation. One week later, participants wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor (Actiheart; Cambridge Neurotechnology Ltd) and 24-hr energy expenditure was estimated for 7 days. After controlling for gender and a combined marker of BMI and waist circumference, results showed autonomous motivation to positively predict moderate-intensity exercise bouts of >or=10 min, or=20 min, and an accumulation needed to meet public health recommendations for moderate intensity activity (i.e., ACSM/AHA guidelines). The present findings add bouts of objectively assessed exercise behavior to the growing body of literature that documents the adaptive consequences of engaging in exercise for autonomous reasons. Implications for practice and future work are discussed.

Intentions to Maintain Adherence to Mammography

PubMed Central

Bowling, J. Michael; Brewer, Noel T.; Lipkus, Isaac M.; Skinner, Celette Sugg; Strigo, Tara S.; Rimer, Barbara K.

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective Recent attention has focused on moving women from having initial mammograms to maintaining adherence to regular mammography schedules. We examined behavioral intentions to maintain mammography adherence, which include the likelihood of performing a behavior, and implementation intentions, specific action plans to obtain mammograms. Potential predictors were Theory of Planned Behavior constructs, previous barriers, previous mammography maintenance, and age. Methods Respondents were 2062 currently adherent women due for their next mammograms in 3–4 months according to American Cancer Society recommendations for annual screening. Statistical models were used to examine predictors of behavioral and two implementation intentions, including having thought about where women would get their next mammograms and having thought about making appointments. Results With the exception of pros, cons, and subjective norms, all variables predicted behavioral intentions (p ≤ 0.05). Stronger perceived control, previous mammography maintenance, and one barrier (vs. none) predicted being more likely to have thought about where to get their next mammograms. Previous maintenance and no barriers (vs. two) predicted being more likely to have thought about making appointments. Conclusions Our findings suggest that among women currently adherent to mammography, volitional factors, such as barriers, may be better predictors of implementation intentions than motivational factors, such as attitudes. Implementation variables may be useful in understanding how women move from intentions to action. Future research should examine how such factors relate to mammography maintenance behaviors and can be integrated into behavior change interventions. PMID:18657041

Predicting future spatial distribution of SOC across entire France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Van Rompaey, Anton; Quine, Tim; Martin, Manuel; Pagé, Christian; Arrouays, Dominique

2013-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is widely recognized as a key factor controlling soil quality and as a crucial and active component of the global C-cycle. Hence, there exists a growing interest in monitoring and modeling the spatial and temporal behavior of this pool. So far, a large attempt has been made to map SOC at national scales for current and/or past situations. Despite some coarse predictions, detailed spatial SOC predictions for the future are still lacking. In this study we aim to predict future spatial evolution of SOC driven by climate and land use change for France up to the year 2100. Therefore, we combined 1) an existing model, predicting SOC as a function of soil type, climate, land use and management (Meersmans et al 2012), with 2) eight different IPCC spatial explicit climate change predictions (conducted by CERFACS) and 3) Land use change scenario predictions. We created business-as-usual land use change scenarios by extrapolating observed trends and calibrating logistic regression models, incorporating a large set of physical and socio-economic factors, at the regional level in combination with a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. The resultant detailed projections of future SOC evolution across all regions of France, allow us to identify regions that are most likely to be characterized by a significant gain or loss of SOC and the degree to which land use decisions/outcomes control the scale of loss and gain. Therefore, this methodology and resulting maps can be considered as powerful tools to aid decision making concerning appropriate soil management, in order to enlarge SOC storage possibilities and reduce soil related CO2 fluxes.

Development and validation of an instrument to assess perceived social influence on health behaviors

PubMed Central

HOLT, CHERYL L.; CLARK, EDDIE M.; ROTH, DAVID L.; CROWTHER, MARTHA; KOHLER, CONNIE; FOUAD, MONA; FOUSHEE, RUSTY; LEE, PATRICIA A.; SOUTHWARD, PENNY L.

2012-01-01

Assessment of social influence on health behavior is often approached through a situational context. The current study adapted an existing, theory-based instrument from another content domain to assess Perceived Social Influence on Health Behavior (PSI-HB) among African Americans, using an individual difference approach. The adapted instrument was found to have high internal reliability (α = .81–.84) and acceptable testretest reliability (r = .68–.85). A measurement model revealed a three-factor structure and supported the theoretical underpinnings. Scores were predictive of health behaviors, particularly among women. Future research using the new instrument may have applied value assessing social influence in the context of health interventions. PMID:20522506

An Examination of Behavioral Rehearsal During Consultation as a Predictor of Training Outcomes

PubMed Central

Kendall, Philip C.; Ringle, Vanesa A.; Read, Kendra L.; Brodman, Douglas A.; Pimentel, Sandra S.; Beidas, Rinad S.

2013-01-01

The training literature suggests that ongoing support following initial therapist training enhances training outcomes, yet little is known about what occurs during ongoing support and what accounts for its effectiveness. The present study examined consultation sessions provided to 99 clinicians following training in cognitive-behavioral therapy for youth anxiety. The 104 recorded consultation sessions were coded for content and consultative methods. It was hypothesized that behavioral rehearsal (an active learning technique) would predict therapist adherence, skill, self-efficacy, and satisfaction at post-consultation. Regression analyses found no significant relation, however, clinician involvement during consultation sessions positively moderated the relationship between behavioral rehearsals and skill. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. PMID:23616234

Comparing the effects of negative and mixed emotional messages on predicted occasional excessive drinking.

PubMed

Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

2008-01-01

In this work we present two types of emotional message, negative (sadness) versus mixed (joy and sadness), with the aim of studying their differential effect on attitude change and the probability estimated by participants of repeating the behavior of occasional excessive drinking in the near future. The results show that for the group of participants with moderate experience in this behavior the negative message, compared to the mixed one, is associated with higher probability of repeating the risk behavior and a less negative attitude toward it. These results suggest that mixed emotional messages (e.g. joy and sadness messages) could be more effective in campaigns for the prevention of this risk behavior.

Self-injurious thoughts and behaviors as risk factors for future suicide ideation, attempts, and death: a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, J. D.; Franklin, J. C.; Fox, K. R.; Bentley, K. H.; Kleiman, E. M.; Chang, B. P.; Nock, M. K.

2016-01-01

Background A history of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs) is consistently cited as one of the strongest predictors of future suicidal behavior. However, stark discrepancies in the literature raise questions about the true magnitude of these associations. The objective of this study is to examine the magnitude and clinical utility of the associations between SITBs and subsequent suicide ideation, attempts, and death. Method We searched PubMed, PsycInfo, and Google Scholar for papers published through December 2014. Inclusion required that studies include at least one longitudinal analysis predicting suicide ideation, attempts, or death using any SITB variable. We identified 2179 longitudinal studies; 172 met inclusion criteria. Results The most common outcome was suicide attempt (47.80%), followed by death (40.50%) and ideation (11.60%). Median follow-up was 52 months (mean = 82.52, s.d. = 102.29). Overall prediction was weak, with weighted mean odds ratios (ORs) of 2.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76–2.43] for ideation, 2.14 (95% CI 2.00–2.30) for attempts, and 1.54 (95% CI 1.39–1.71) for death. Adjusting for publication bias further reduced estimates. Diagnostic accuracy analyses indicated acceptable specificity (86–87%) and poor sensitivity (10–26%), with areas under the curve marginally above chance (0.60–0.62). Most risk factors generated OR estimates of <2.0 and no risk factor exceeded 4.5. Effects were consistent regardless of sample severity, sample age groups, or follow-up length. Conclusions Prior SITBs confer risk for later suicidal thoughts and behaviors. However, they only provide a marginal improvement in diagnostic accuracy above chance. Addressing gaps in study design, assessment, and underlying mechanisms may prove useful in improving prediction and prevention of suicidal thoughts and behaviors. PMID:26370729

Personality, perceived environment, and behavior systems related to future smoking intentions among youths: an application of problem-behavior theory in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Cai, Yong; Li, Rui; Zhu, Jingfen; Na, Li; He, Yaping; Redmon, Pam; Qiao, Yun; Ma, Jin

2015-01-01

Smoking among youths is a worldwide problem, particularly in China. Many endogenous and environmental factors influence smokers' intentions to smoke; therefore, a comprehensive model is needed to understand the significance and relationship of predictors. This study aimed to develop a prediction model based on problem-behavior theory (PBT) to interpret intentions to smoke among Chinese youths. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 26,675 adolescents from junior, senior, and vocational high schools in Shanghai, China. Data on smoking status, smoking knowledge, attitude toward smoking, parents' and peers' smoking, and media exposure to smoking were collected from students. A structural equation model was used to assess the developed prediction model. The experimental smoking rate and current smoking rate among the students were 11.0% and 3%, respectively. Our constructed model showed an acceptable fit to the data (comparative fit index = 0.987, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.034). Intention to smoke was predicted by perceived environment (β = 0.455, P < 0.001) system consisting of peer smoking (β = 0.599, P < 0.001), parent smoking (β = 0.152, P < 0.001), and media exposure to smoking (β = 0.226, P < 0.001), and behavior system (β = 0.487, P < 0.001) consisting of tobacco experimentation (β = 0.663, P < 0.001) and current smoking (β = 0.755, P < 0.001). Smoking intention was irrelevant for personality system in students (β = -0.113, P>0.05) which consisted of acceptance of tobacco use (β = 0.668, P < 0.001) and academic performance (β = 0.171, P < 0.001). The PBT-based model we developed provides a good understanding of the predictors of intentions to smoke and it suggests future interventions among youths should focus on components in perceived environment and behavior systems, and take into account the moderating effects of personality system.

Seasonally Varying Predation Behavior and Climate Shifts Are Predicted to Affect Predator-Prey Cycles.

PubMed

Tyson, Rebecca; Lutscher, Frithjof

2016-11-01

The functional response of some predator species changes from a pattern characteristic for a generalist to that for a specialist according to seasonally varying prey availability. Current theory does not address the dynamic consequences of this phenomenon. Since season length correlates strongly with altitude and latitude and is predicted to change under future climate scenarios, including this phenomenon in theoretical models seems essential for correct prediction of future ecosystem dynamics. We develop and analyze a two-season model for the great horned owl (Bubo virginialis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). These species form a predator-prey system in which the generalist to specialist shift in predation pattern has been documented empirically. We study the qualitative behavior of this predator-prey model community as summer season length changes. We find that relatively small changes in summer season length can have a profound impact on the system. In particular, when the predator has sufficient alternative resources available during the summer season, it can drive the prey to extinction, there can be coexisting stable states, and there can be stable large-amplitude limit cycles coexisting with a stable steady state. Our results illustrate that the impacts of global change on local ecosystems can be driven by internal system dynamics and can potentially have catastrophic consequences.

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

PubMed

Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2018-05-01

Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Behavioral flexibility and problem solving in an invasive bird.

PubMed

Logan, Corina J

2016-01-01

Behavioral flexibility is considered an important trait for adapting to environmental change, but it is unclear what it is, how it works, and whether it is a problem solving ability. I investigated behavioral flexibility and problem solving experimentally in great-tailed grackles, an invasive bird species and thus a likely candidate for possessing behavioral flexibility. Grackles demonstrated behavioral flexibility in two contexts, the Aesop's Fable paradigm and a color association test. Contrary to predictions, behavioral flexibility did not correlate across contexts. Four out of 6 grackles exhibited efficient problem solving abilities, but problem solving efficiency did not appear to be directly linked with behavioral flexibility. Problem solving speed also did not significantly correlate with reversal learning scores, indicating that faster learners were not the most flexible. These results reveal how little we know about behavioral flexibility, and provide an immense opportunity for future research to explore how individuals and species can use behavior to react to changing environments.

Does Educational Level Matter in Adopting Online Education? A Malaysian Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haghshenas, Hanif; Chatroudi, Ehsan Aminaei; Njeje, Fredy Anthony

2012-01-01

Having applied Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to predict intention and future usage behavior, the moderating effect of educational level was added to the model in moderating the relationship between variables. Also, despite past studies, Effort Expectancy had a higher beta than Performance Expectancy, while Social…

Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2016-01-01

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

Use of a UAV-mounted video camera to assess feeding behavior of Raramuri Criollo cows

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Interest in use of unmanned aerial vehicles in science has increased in recent years. It is predicted that they will be a preferred remote sensing platform for applications that inform sustainable rangeland management in the future. The objective of this study was to determine whether UAV video moni...

Association between elementary school personality and high school smoking and drinking.

PubMed

Peterson, Sarah J; Smith, Gregory T

2017-11-01

Among US high school students, alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking are associated with numerous concurrent and future harms. We tested whether multiple elementary school personality dispositions to behave impulsively can predict these addictive behaviors invariably across gender and race. This longitudinal design involved testing whether individual differences on impulsigenic traits in elementary school predicted drinking and smoking 4 years later in high school in 23 public schools in Kentucky, USA. A total of 1897 youth, mean age 10.33 at wave 1, drawn from urban, rural and suburban backgrounds. Drinking and smoking frequency were assessed by single-item questions. The key predictors were impulsigenic traits measured with the UPPS-P Child Version impulsive behavior scale. Important covariates included were pubertal status, depression, negative affect and positive affect; each was assessed by self-report. Three personality traits measured in 5th grade, each representing different dispositions to engage in impulsive behavior, predicted drinking and smoking in 9th grade above and beyond other risk factors and 5th grade drinking and smoking. Specifically, urgency (b = 0.10, 0.13), sensation-seeking (b = 0.13, 0.07) and low conscientiousness (b = 0.14, 0.11) each uniquely predicted both high school drinking and smoking, respectively. There was no evidence that any trait predicted either outcome more strongly than the other traits, nor was there evidence that predictive results varied by gender or race. Three personality traits (urgency, sensation-seeking and low conscientiousness), when measured in 11-year-old children, predict those children's drinking and smoking behavior individually at age 15. The effects are invariant across gender and race. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Broadening the trans-contextual model of motivation: A study with Spanish adolescents.

PubMed

González-Cutre, D; Sicilia, Á; Beas-Jiménez, M; Hagger, M S

2014-08-01

The original trans-contextual model of motivation proposed that autonomy support from teachers develops students' autonomous motivation in physical education (PE), and that autonomous motivation is transferred from PE contexts to physical activity leisure-time contexts, and predicts attitudes, perceived behavioral control and subjective norms, and forming intentions to participate in future physical activity behavior. The purpose of this study was to test an extended trans-contextual model of motivation including autonomy support from peers and parents and basic psychological needs in a Spanish sample. School students (n = 400) aged between 12 and 18 years completed measures of perceived autonomy support from three sources, autonomous motivation and constructs from the theory of planned behavior at three different points in time and in two contexts, PE and leisure-time. A path analysis controlling for past physical activity behavior supported the main postulates of the model. Autonomous motivation in a PE context predicted autonomous motivation in a leisure-time physical activity context, perceived autonomy support from teachers predicted satisfaction of basic psychological needs in PE, and perceived autonomy support from peers and parents predicted need satisfaction in leisure-time. This study provides a cross-cultural replication of the trans-contextual model of motivation and broadens it to encompass basic psychological needs. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Encoded exposure to tobacco use in social media predicts subsequent smoking behavior.

PubMed

Depue, Jacob B; Southwell, Brian G; Betzner, Anne E; Walsh, Barbara M

2015-01-01

Assessing the potential link between smoking behavior and exposure to mass media depictions of smoking on social networking Web sites. A representative longitudinal panel of 200 young adults in Connecticut. Telephone surveys were conducted by using computer assisted telephone interviewing technology and electronic dialing for random digit dialing and listed samples. Connecticut residents aged 18 to 24 years. To measure encoded exposure, respondents were asked whether or not they had smoked a cigarette in the past 30 days and about how often they had seen tobacco use on television, in movies, and in social media content. Respondents were also asked about cigarette use in the past 30 days, and a series of additional questions that have been shown to be predictive of tobacco use. Logistic regression was used to test for our main prediction that reported exposure to social media tobacco depictions at time 1 would influence time 2 smoking behavior. Encoded exposure to social media tobacco depictions (B = .47, p < .05) was a significant predictor of time 2 smoking, even after controlling for all the aforementioned predictors. Our results suggest that social media depictions of tobacco use predict future smoking tendency, over and above the influence of TV and movie depictions of smoking. This is the first known study to specifically assess the role of social media in informing tobacco behavior.

Rent-seeking behaviors in property development: A literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Suhaila; Aziz, Abdul Rashid Abdul

2017-11-01

This paper reviews the literature on rent-seeking behaviors in property development, and discusses three major areas: (1) definition and concept of rent-seeking; (2) factors for the rent-seeking behavior appeared; and (3) the impact of rent-seeking behaviors, particularly on property development. In general, there is no exact word that can define what rent-seeking is. It is found that from the reviewed studies that a few researches have adopted search tasks to predict rent-seeking behavior effects in the economy and the respective economic performance. Based on the findings of the review, rent-seeking behavior increases social cost and this might lead to problems such as corruption. This paper paves the way for future studies in examining rent-seeking behaviors in the Malaysian property development, especially for targeted actions to be taken to alleviate upward pressure on home prices.

Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

PubMed

Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

2018-05-14

Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1994-01-01

In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

Intentions to Cheat: Ajzen's Planned Behavior and Goal-Related Personality Facets.

PubMed

Lonsdale, Damian

2017-02-17

This study sought to test antecedents to college students' intentions to cheat by utilizing Ajzen's ( 1991 ) theory of planned behavior (TPB), and four goal-related personality facets. Those facets were behavioral approach, behavioral inhibition, need for achievement-hope of success, and need for achievement-fear of failure. As hypothesized, perceived friends' and parents' attitudes toward academic dishonesty (two subjective norms) and perceived ease of cheating (perceived behavioral control) all positively predicted overall intentions to cheat. Perceived friends' attitudes seemed to play a more influential role than perceived parents' attitudes. Interestingly, male students reported greater parental acceptance of academic misconduct than female students reported. Among the personality facets, behavioral approach and need for achievement-hope of success were positive and negative predictors of cheating intentions, respectively. A more fine-grained examination of take-home assignments revealed that students considered them easier to cheat on and reported greater intentions to cheat on them in comparison to other forms of academic work (e.g., exams and papers). Also, need for achievement-fear of failure positively predicted intentions to cheat on take-home assignments, but not other cheating intentions. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Normative perceptions and past-year consequences as predictors of subjective evaluations and weekly drinking behavior.

PubMed

Merrill, Jennifer E; Read, Jennifer P; Colder, Craig R

2013-11-01

Problem drinking during the college years continues to be an important area of study. Subjective evaluations of consequences have recently been demonstrated to predict future drinking behavior; however, what predicts those evaluations is yet unknown. Social Learning Theory (SLT) provides a guiding framework in this study. Primary aims are to investigate whether individual differences in past experience with alcohol consequences and normative perceptions of alcohol consequences predict subjective evaluations (i.e., the extent to which consequences are perceived as negative, aversive, or severe) and weekly drinking behavior. We also test whether evaluations mediate the influence of past consequences and norms on weekly drinking behavior. Following a baseline assessment, participants (N = 96 regularly drinking college students, 52% female) completed ten weekly web-based surveys on previous week alcohol use, consequences, and subjective evaluations of those consequences. A series of hierarchical linear models were used to test hypotheses. Most mediational pathways were not supported - weekly level evaluations do not appear to fully explain the effect of norms or past experience on weekly level drinking behavior. However, results demonstrated that normative perceptions of and past experience with consequences were associated with both weekly drinking behavior and subjective evaluations, and evaluations remained significant predictors of alcohol use behavior after accounting for these important between-person influences. Findings support the importance placed by SLT on cognition in drinking behavior, and suggest that norms for consequences and subjective evaluations may be appropriate targets of intervention in college students. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Punishing an error improves learning: the influence of punishment magnitude on error-related neural activity and subsequent learning.

PubMed

Hester, Robert; Murphy, Kevin; Brown, Felicity L; Skilleter, Ashley J

2010-11-17

Punishing an error to shape subsequent performance is a major tenet of individual and societal level behavioral interventions. Recent work examining error-related neural activity has identified that the magnitude of activity in the posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) is predictive of learning from an error, whereby greater activity in this region predicts adaptive changes in future cognitive performance. It remains unclear how punishment influences error-related neural mechanisms to effect behavior change, particularly in key regions such as pMFC, which previous work has demonstrated to be insensitive to punishment. Using an associative learning task that provided monetary reward and punishment for recall performance, we observed that when recall errors were categorized by subsequent performance--whether the failure to accurately recall a number-location association was corrected at the next presentation of the same trial--the magnitude of error-related pMFC activity predicted future correction. However, the pMFC region was insensitive to the magnitude of punishment an error received and it was the left insula cortex that predicted learning from the most aversive outcomes. These findings add further evidence to the hypothesis that error-related pMFC activity may reflect more than a prediction error in representing the value of an outcome. The novel role identified here for the insular cortex in learning from punishment appears particularly compelling for our understanding of psychiatric and neurologic conditions that feature both insular cortex dysfunction and a diminished capacity for learning from negative feedback or punishment.

First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J.D.; Werner, M.J.; Field, E.H.; Jackson, D.D.; Jordan, T.H.

2010-01-01

The ability to successfully predict the future behavior of a system is a strong indication that the system is well understood. Certainly many details of the earthquake system remain obscure, but several hypotheses related to earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard have been proffered, and predicting earthquake behavior is a worthy goal and demanded by society. Along these lines, one of the primary objectives of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) working group was to formalize earthquake occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective earthquake rate forecasts in California. RELM members, working in small research groups, developed more than a dozen 5-year forecasts; they also outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform predictability experiments. Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide, and the RELM predictability experiment-a truly prospective earthquake prediction effort-is underway within the U. S. branch of CSEP. The experiment, designed to compare time-invariant 5-year earthquake rate forecasts, is now approximately halfway to its completion. In this paper, we describe the models under evaluation and present, for the first time, preliminary results of this unique experiment. While these results are preliminary-the forecasts were meant for an application of 5 years-we find interesting results: most of the models are consistent with the observation and one model forecasts the distribution of earthquakes best. We discuss the observed sample of target earthquakes in the context of historical seismicity within the testing region, highlight potential pitfalls of the current tests, and suggest plans for future revisions to experiments such as this one. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schorlemmer, Danijel; Zechar, J. Douglas; Werner, Maximilian J.; Field, Edward H.; Jackson, David D.; Jordan, Thomas H.

2010-08-01

The ability to successfully predict the future behavior of a system is a strong indication that the system is well understood. Certainly many details of the earthquake system remain obscure, but several hypotheses related to earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard have been proffered, and predicting earthquake behavior is a worthy goal and demanded by society. Along these lines, one of the primary objectives of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) working group was to formalize earthquake occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective earthquake rate forecasts in California. RELM members, working in small research groups, developed more than a dozen 5-year forecasts; they also outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform predictability experiments. Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide, and the RELM predictability experiment—a truly prospective earthquake prediction effort—is underway within the U.S. branch of CSEP. The experiment, designed to compare time-invariant 5-year earthquake rate forecasts, is now approximately halfway to its completion. In this paper, we describe the models under evaluation and present, for the first time, preliminary results of this unique experiment. While these results are preliminary—the forecasts were meant for an application of 5 years—we find interesting results: most of the models are consistent with the observation and one model forecasts the distribution of earthquakes best. We discuss the observed sample of target earthquakes in the context of historical seismicity within the testing region, highlight potential pitfalls of the current tests, and suggest plans for future revisions to experiments such as this one.

Escalation research: Providing new frontiers for applying behavior analysis to organizational behavior

PubMed Central

Goltz, Sonia M.

2000-01-01

Decision fiascoes such as escalation of commitment, the tendency of decision makers to “throw good money after bad,” can have serious consequences for organizations and are therefore of great interest in applied research. This paper discusses the use of behavior analysis in organizational behavior research on escalation. Among the most significant aspects of behavior-analytic research on escalation is that it has indicated that both the patterns of outcomes that decision makers have experienced for past decisions and the patterns of responses that they make are critical for understanding escalation. This research has also stimulated the refinement of methods by researchers to better assess decision making and the role reinforcement plays in it. Finally, behavior-analytic escalation research has not only indicated the utility of reinforcement principles for predicting more complex human behavior but has also suggested some additional areas for future exploration of decision making using behavior analysis. PMID:22478347

Top-down predictions in the cognitive brain

PubMed Central

Kveraga, Kestutis; Ghuman, Avniel S.; Bar, Moshe

2007-01-01

The human brain is not a passive organ simply waiting to be activated by external stimuli. Instead, it is proposed tat the brain continuously employs memory of past experiences to interpret sensory information and predict the immediately relevant future. This review concentrates on visual recognition as the model system for developing and testing ideas about the role and mechanisms of top-down predictions in the brain. We cover relevant behavioral, computational and neural aspects. These ideas are then extended to other domains. The basic elements of this proposal include analogical mapping, associative representations and the generation of predictions. Connections to a host of cognitive processes will be made and implications to several mental disorders will be proposed. PMID:17923222

Religiosity and Risky Sexual Behaviors among an African American Church-based Population

PubMed Central

Hawes, Starlyn M.; Berkley-Patton, Jannette Y.

2014-01-01

African Americans are disproportionately burdened by STDs and HIV in the US. This study examined the relationships between demographics, religiosity, and sexual risk behaviors among 255 adult African American church-based participants. Although participants were highly religious, they reported an average of seven lifetime sex partners and most inconsistently used condoms. Several demographic variables and religiosity significantly predicted lifetime HIV-related risk factors. Taken together, findings indicated that this population is at risk for HIV. Future research should continue to identify correlates of risky sexual behavior among African American parishioners to facilitate the development of HIV risk reduction interventions in their church settings. PMID:23054481

Identity motives underlying desired and feared possible future selves.

PubMed

Vignoles, Vivian L; Manzi, Claudia; Regalia, Camillo; Jemmolo, Simone; Scabini, Eugenia

2008-10-01

Desired and feared possible future selves are important motivators of behavior and provide a temporal context for self-evaluation. Yet little research has examined why people desire some possible selves and fear others. In two studies, we tested the reflection of identity motives for self-esteem, efficacy, meaning, continuity, belonging, and distinctiveness in people's desired and feared possible future selves and in their possible future identity structures. As predicted, participants desired especially those possible futures in which motives for self-esteem, efficacy, meaning, and continuity would be satisfied, and they feared especially those in which the same four motives and, marginally, the motive for distinctiveness would be frustrated. Analyses supported an indirect path from belonging via self-esteem to desire and fear. Desired and feared possible future selves reflect potential satisfaction and frustration of these identity motives.

A memory advantage for past-oriented over future-oriented performance feedback.

PubMed

Nash, Robert A; Winstone, Naomi E; Gregory, Samantha E A; Papps, Emily

2018-03-05

People frequently receive performance feedback that describes how well they achieved in the past, and how they could improve in future. In educational contexts, future-oriented (directive) feedback is often argued to be more valuable to learners than past-oriented (evaluative) feedback; critically, prior research led us to predict that it should also be better remembered. We tested this prediction in six experiments. Subjects read written feedback containing evaluative and directive comments, which supposedly related to essays they had previously written (Experiments 1-2), or to essays another person had written (Experiments 3-6). Subjects then tried to reproduce the feedback from memory after a short delay. In all six experiments, the data strongly revealed the opposite effect to the one we predicted: despite only small differences in wording, evaluative feedback was in fact recalled consistently better than directive feedback. Furthermore, even when adult subjects did recall directive feedback, they frequently misremembered it in an evaluative style. These findings appear at odds with the position that being oriented toward the future is advantageous to memory. They also raise important questions about the possible behavioral effects and generalizability of such biases, in terms of students' academic performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Individualized Behavioral Health Monitoring Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mollicone, Daniel

2015-01-01

Behavioral health risks during long-duration space exploration missions are among the most difficult to predict, detect, and mitigate. Given the anticipated extended duration of future missions and their isolated, extreme, and confined environments, there is the possibility that behavior conditions and mental disorders will develop among astronaut crew. Pulsar Informatics, Inc., has developed a health monitoring tool that provides a means to detect and address behavioral disorders and mental conditions at an early stage. The tool integrates all available behavioral measures collected during a mission to identify possible health indicator warning signs within the context of quantitatively tracked mission stressors. It is unobtrusive and requires minimal crew time and effort to train and utilize. The monitoring tool can be deployed in space analog environments for validation testing and ultimate deployment in long-duration space exploration missions.

Effects of floor location on response of composite fuselage frames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carden, Huey D.; Jones, Lisa E.; Fasanella, Edwin L.

1992-01-01

Experimental and analytical results are presented which show the effect of floor placement on the structural response and strength of circular fuselage frames constructed of graphite-epoxy composite material. The research was conducted to study the behavior of conventionally designed advanced composite aircraft components. To achieve desired new designs which incorporate improved energy absorption capabilities requires an understanding of how these conventional designs behave under crash type loadings. Data are presented on the static behavior of the composite structure through photographs of the frame specimen, experimental strain distributions, and through analytical data from composite structural models. An understanding of this behavior can aid the dynamist in predicting the crash behavior of these structures and may assist the designer in achieving improved designs for energy absorption and crash behavior of future structures.

Perceived sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies and behavior predict substance-related sexual revictimization.

PubMed

Walsh, Kate; Messman-Moore, Terri; Zerubavel, Noga; Chandley, Rachel B; Denardi, Kathleen A; Walker, Dave P

2013-05-01

Although numerous studies have documented linkages between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and later sexual revictimization, mechanisms underlying revictimization, particularly assaults occurring in the context of substance use, are not well-understood. Consistent with Traumagenic Dynamics theory, the present study tested a path model positing that lowered perceptions of sexual control resulting from CSA may be associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and heightened likelihood of risky sexual behavior, which in turn, may predict adult substance-related rape. Participants were 546 female college students who completed anonymous surveys regarding CSA and adult rape, perceptions of sexual control, sex-related alcohol expectancies, and likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. The data fit the hypothesized model well and all hypothesized path coefficients were significant and in the expected directions. As expected, sex-related alcohol expectancies and likelihood of risky sexual behavior only predicted substance-related rape, not forcible rape. Findings suggested that low perceived sexual control stemming from CSA is associated with increased sex-related alcohol expectancies and a higher likelihood of engaging in sexual behavior in the context of alcohol use. In turn these proximal risk factors heighten vulnerability to substance-related rape. Programs which aim to reduce risk for substance-related rape could be improved by addressing expectancies and motivations for risky sexual behavior in the context of substance use. Implications and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Board-invited review: Using behavior to predict and identify ill health in animals.

PubMed

Weary, D M; Huzzey, J M; von Keyserlingk, M A G

2009-02-01

We review recent research in one of the oldest and most important applications of ethology: evaluating animal health. Traditionally, such evaluations have been based on subjective assessments of debilitative signs; animals are judged ill when they appear depressed or off feed. Such assessments are prone to error but can be dramatically improved with training using well-defined clinical criteria. The availability of new technology to automatically record behaviors allows for increased use of objective measures; automated measures of feeding behavior and intake are increasingly available in commercial agriculture, and recent work has shown these to be valuable indicators of illness. Research has also identified behaviors indicative of risk of disease or injury. For example, the time spent standing on wet, concrete surfaces can be used to predict susceptibility to hoof injuries in dairy cattle, and time spent nuzzling the udder of the sow can predict the risk of crushing in piglets. One conceptual advance has been to view decreased exploration, feeding, social, sexual, and other behaviors as a coordinated response that helps afflicted individuals recover from illness. We argue that the sickness behaviors most likely to decline are those that provide longer-term fitness benefits (such as play), as animals divert resources to those functions of critical short-term value such as maintaining body temperature. We urge future research assessing the strength of motivation to express sickness behaviors, allowing for quantitative estimates of how sick an animal feels. Finally, we call for new theoretical and empirical work on behaviors that may act to signal health status, including behaviors that have evolved as honest (i.e., reliable) signals of condition for offspring-parent, inter- and intra-sexual, and predator-prey communication.

Identifying Psychosocial Variables That Predict Safer Sex Intentions in Adolescents and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Brüll, Phil; Ruiter, Robert A. C.; Wiers, Reinout W.; Kok, Gerjo

2016-01-01

Young people are especially vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The triad of deliberate and effective safer sex behavior encompasses condom use, combined with additional information about a partner’s sexual health, and the kind of sex acts usually performed. To identify psychosocial predictors of young people’s intentions to have safer sex, as related to this triad, we conducted an online study with 211 sexually active participants aged between 18 and 24 years. Predictors [i.e., perceived behavioral control (PBC), subjective norms, and intention] taken from Fishbein and Ajzen’s Reasoned Action Approach (RAA), were combined with more distal variables (e.g., behavioral inhibition, sensation seeking, parental monitoring, and knowledge about STIs). Beyond the highly predictive power of RAA variables, additional variance was explained by the number of instances of unprotected sexual intercourse (SI) during the last 12 months and reasons for using barrier protection during first SI. In particular, past condom non-use behavior moderated PBC related to intended condom use. Further, various distal variables showed significant univariate associations with intentions related to the three behaviors of interest. It may, therefore, be helpful to include measures of past behavior as well as certain additional distal variables in future safer sex programs designed to promote health-sustaining sexual behavior. PMID:27148520

Mothers' Temperament and Personality: Their Relationship to Parenting Behaviors, Locus of Control, and Young Children's Functioning.

PubMed

Puff, Jayme; Renk, Kimberly

2016-10-01

There appears to be a lack of construct clarity and a dearth of studies that have examined both mothers' temperament and personality in conjunction with parenting behaviors when predicting young children's functioning. As a result, this study examined these constructs jointly so that a further understanding of how mothers' temperament and personality may work together to predict young children's functioning could be gained. As part of this study, 214 diverse mothers with young children who ranged in age from 2- to 6-years rated their own temperament and personality, their parenting characteristics, and their young children's functioning (i.e., temperament and emotional and behavioral functioning). Based on the findings of hierarchical regression analyses completed in this study, both mothers' temperament and personality may be important individual predictors of young children's temperament but may be important joint predictors, along with parenting behaviors, of young children's behavior problems. Consequently, future research should examine the role that mothers' temperament and personality characteristics may play in conjunction with their parenting behaviors when trying to understand young children's functioning. These findings will be particularly helpful for professionals providing parenting interventions to families with young children who have difficult temperament styles and/or emotional and behavioral problems.

Temperament in infancy and behavioral and emotional problems at age 5.5: The EDEN mother-child cohort.

PubMed

Abulizi, Xian; Pryor, Laura; Michel, Grégory; Melchior, Maria; van der Waerden, Judith

2017-01-01

Early temperamental characteristics may influence children's developmental pathways and predict future psychopathology. However, the environmental context may also shape or interact with infant temperament and indirectly contribute to increased vulnerability to adverse developmental outcomes. The aim of the present study is to explore the long-term contribution of temperamental traits at twelve months of age to the presence of emotional and behavioral problems later in childhood, and whether this association varies with the child's sex, parental separation, family socioeconomic status and maternal depression. 1184 mother-child pairs from the EDEN mother-child birth cohort study based in France (2003-2011), were followed from 24-28 weeks of pregnancy to the child's fifth birthday. Infant temperament at 12 months was assessed with the Emotionality Activity and Sociability (EAS) questionnaire and behavior at 5.5 years was assessed with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Emotional temperament in infancy predicts children's overall behavioral scores (β = 1.16, p<0.001), emotional difficulties (β = 0.30, p<0.001), conduct problems (β = 0.51, p<0.001) and symptoms of hyperactivity/inattention (β = 0.31, p = 0.01) at 5.5 years. Infants' active temperament predicts later conduct problems (β = 0.30, p = 0.02), while shyness predicts later emotional problems (β = 0.22, p = 0.04). The association between the child's temperament in infancy and later behavior did not vary with children's own or family characteristics. An emotional temperament in infancy is associated with higher levels of emotional and behavioral difficulties at the age of 5.5 years. Children who show high emotionality early on may require early prevention and intervention efforts to divert possible adverse developmental pathways.

Temperament in infancy and behavioral and emotional problems at age 5.5: The EDEN mother-child cohort

PubMed Central

Abulizi, Xian; Pryor, Laura; Michel, Grégory; Melchior, Maria

2017-01-01

Objective Early temperamental characteristics may influence children’s developmental pathways and predict future psychopathology. However, the environmental context may also shape or interact with infant temperament and indirectly contribute to increased vulnerability to adverse developmental outcomes. The aim of the present study is to explore the long-term contribution of temperamental traits at twelve months of age to the presence of emotional and behavioral problems later in childhood, and whether this association varies with the child’s sex, parental separation, family socioeconomic status and maternal depression. Method 1184 mother-child pairs from the EDEN mother-child birth cohort study based in France (2003–2011), were followed from 24–28 weeks of pregnancy to the child’s fifth birthday. Infant temperament at 12 months was assessed with the Emotionality Activity and Sociability (EAS) questionnaire and behavior at 5.5 years was assessed with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Results Emotional temperament in infancy predicts children’s overall behavioral scores (β = 1.16, p<0.001), emotional difficulties (β = 0.30, p<0.001), conduct problems (β = 0.51, p<0.001) and symptoms of hyperactivity/inattention (β = 0.31, p = 0.01) at 5.5 years. Infants’ active temperament predicts later conduct problems (β = 0.30, p = 0.02), while shyness predicts later emotional problems (β = 0.22, p = 0.04). The association between the child’s temperament in infancy and later behavior did not vary with children’s own or family characteristics. Conclusion An emotional temperament in infancy is associated with higher levels of emotional and behavioral difficulties at the age of 5.5 years. Children who show high emotionality early on may require early prevention and intervention efforts to divert possible adverse developmental pathways. PMID:28199415

Predictive representations can link model-based reinforcement learning to model-free mechanisms.

PubMed

Russek, Evan M; Momennejad, Ida; Botvinick, Matthew M; Gershman, Samuel J; Daw, Nathaniel D

2017-09-01

Humans and animals are capable of evaluating actions by considering their long-run future rewards through a process described using model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. The mechanisms by which neural circuits perform the computations prescribed by model-based RL remain largely unknown; however, multiple lines of evidence suggest that neural circuits supporting model-based behavior are structurally homologous to and overlapping with those thought to carry out model-free temporal difference (TD) learning. Here, we lay out a family of approaches by which model-based computation may be built upon a core of TD learning. The foundation of this framework is the successor representation, a predictive state representation that, when combined with TD learning of value predictions, can produce a subset of the behaviors associated with model-based learning, while requiring less decision-time computation than dynamic programming. Using simulations, we delineate the precise behavioral capabilities enabled by evaluating actions using this approach, and compare them to those demonstrated by biological organisms. We then introduce two new algorithms that build upon the successor representation while progressively mitigating its limitations. Because this framework can account for the full range of observed putatively model-based behaviors while still utilizing a core TD framework, we suggest that it represents a neurally plausible family of mechanisms for model-based evaluation.

Predictive representations can link model-based reinforcement learning to model-free mechanisms

PubMed Central

Botvinick, Matthew M.

2017-01-01

Humans and animals are capable of evaluating actions by considering their long-run future rewards through a process described using model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. The mechanisms by which neural circuits perform the computations prescribed by model-based RL remain largely unknown; however, multiple lines of evidence suggest that neural circuits supporting model-based behavior are structurally homologous to and overlapping with those thought to carry out model-free temporal difference (TD) learning. Here, we lay out a family of approaches by which model-based computation may be built upon a core of TD learning. The foundation of this framework is the successor representation, a predictive state representation that, when combined with TD learning of value predictions, can produce a subset of the behaviors associated with model-based learning, while requiring less decision-time computation than dynamic programming. Using simulations, we delineate the precise behavioral capabilities enabled by evaluating actions using this approach, and compare them to those demonstrated by biological organisms. We then introduce two new algorithms that build upon the successor representation while progressively mitigating its limitations. Because this framework can account for the full range of observed putatively model-based behaviors while still utilizing a core TD framework, we suggest that it represents a neurally plausible family of mechanisms for model-based evaluation. PMID:28945743

Predicting Family Poverty and Other Disadvantaged Conditions for Child Rearing from Childhood Aggression and Social Withdrawal: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serbin, Lisa A.; Temcheff, Caroline E.; Cooperman, Jessica M.; Stack, Dale M.; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E.

2011-01-01

This 30-year longitudinal study examined pathways from problematic childhood behavior patterns to future disadvantaged conditions for family environment and child rearing in adulthood. Participants were mothers (n = 328) and fathers (n = 222) with lower income backgrounds participating in the ongoing Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project. Structural…

Risk of Future Suicide Attempts in Adolescent Psychiatric Inpatients at 18-Month Follow-Up.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brinkman-Sull, David C.; Overholser, James C.; Silverman, Eden

2000-01-01

Investigates potential predictors of suicidal behavior in adolescent psychiatric patients (N=60) during an 18-month follow-up period. Follow-up suicidality was most strongly predicted by high intake levels of hopelessness, and an increase in or persistent problems with depression. Proposes a model in which the impact of family functioning on…

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative. Volume 2: Discipline Reviews

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1991-01-01

Seven discipline review papers are presented on the state of the knowledge of West Antarctica and opinions on how that knowledge must be increased to predict the future behavior of this ice sheet and to assess its potential to collapse, rapidly raising the global sea level. These are the goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS).

How Does Target Know so Much about Its Customers? Utilizing Customer Analytics to Make Marketing Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corrigan, Hope B.; Craciun, Georgiana; Powell, Allison M.

2014-01-01

Every time shoppers make a purchase at a store or browse a Web site, customer behavior is tracked, analyzed, and perhaps shared with other businesses. Target Corporation is a leader in analyzing vast amounts of data to identify buying patterns, improve customer satisfaction, predict future trends, select promotional strategies, and increase…

Neuroimaging in Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury: Current and Future Predictors of Functional Outcome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suskauer, Stacy J.; Huisman, Thierry A. G. M.

2009-01-01

Although neuroimaging has long played a role in the acute management of pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI), until recently, its use as a tool for understanding and predicting long-term brain-behavior relationships after TBI has been limited by the relatively poor sensitivity of routine clinical imaging for detecting diffuse axonal injury…

Self-affinity in the dengue fever time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, S. M.; Saba, H.; Miranda, J. G. V.; Filho, A. S. Nascimento; Moret, M. A.

2016-06-01

Dengue is a complex public health problem that is common in tropical and subtropical regions. This disease has risen substantially in the last three decades, and the physical symptoms depict the self-affine behavior of the occurrences of reported dengue cases in Bahia, Brazil. This study uses detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to verify the scale behavior in a time series of dengue cases and to evaluate the long-range correlations that are characterized by the power law α exponent for different cities in Bahia, Brazil. The scaling exponent (α) presents different long-range correlations, i.e. uncorrelated, anti-persistent, persistent and diffusive behaviors. The long-range correlations highlight the complex behavior of the time series of this disease. The findings show that there are two distinct types of scale behavior. In the first behavior, the time series presents a persistent α exponent for a one-month period. For large periods, the time series signal approaches subdiffusive behavior. The hypothesis of the long-range correlations in the time series of the occurrences of reported dengue cases was validated. The observed self-affinity is useful as a forecasting tool for future periods through extrapolation of the α exponent behavior. This complex system has a higher predictability in a relatively short time (approximately one month), and it suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategies. However, predictions for large periods using DFA are hidden by the subdiffusive behavior.

Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.

PubMed

Ireland, Molly E; Schwartz, H Andrew; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle H; Albarracín, Dolores

2015-12-01

Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Future-Oriented Tweets Predict Lower County-Level HIV Prevalence in the United States

PubMed Central

Ireland, Molly E.; Schwartz, Hansen A.; Chen, Qijia; Ungar, Lyle; Albarracín, Dolores

2016-01-01

Objective Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower HIV rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. Method Over 150 million Tweets mapped to US counties were analyzed using two methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. Results Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. Conclusion Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases. PMID:26651466

An Overview of Depression among Transgender Women

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Rates of depression are higher in transgender women than in the general population, warranting an understanding of the variables related to depression in this group. Results of the literature review of depression in transgender women reveal several variables influencing depression, including social support, violence, sex work, and gender identity. The theoretical constructs of minority stress, coping, and identity control theory are explored in terms of how they may predict depression in transgender women. Depression and depressive symptoms have been used to predict high-risk sexual behaviors with mixed results. The implications of the findings on treating depression in transgender women include taking into account the stress of transition and the importance of supportive peers and family. Future studies should explore a model of depression and high-risk behaviors in transgender women. PMID:24744918

Comparing the Effects of Negative and Mixed Emotional Messages on Predicted Occasional Excessive Drinking

PubMed Central

Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

2008-01-01

In this work we present two types of emotional message, negative (sadness) versus mixed (joy and sadness), with the aim of studying their differential effect on attitude change and the probability estimated by participants of repeating the behavior of occasional excessive drinking in the near future. The results show that for the group of participants with moderate experience in this behavior the negative message, compared to the mixed one, is associated with higher probability of repeating the risk behavior and a less negative attitude toward it. These results suggest that mixed emotional messages (e.g. joy and sadness messages) could be more effective in campaigns for the prevention of this risk behavior. PMID:25977606

Regulating Cortical Neurodynamics for Past, Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liljenström, Hans

2002-09-01

Behaving systems, biological as well as artificial, need to respond quickly and accurately to changes in the environment. The response is dependent on stored memories, and novel situations should be learnt for the guidance of future behavior. A highly nonlinear system dynamics is required in order to cope with a complex and changing environment, and this dynamics should be regulated to match the demands of the current situation, and to predict future behavior. In many cases the dynamics should be regulated to minimize processing time. We use computer simulations of cortical structures in order to investigate how the neurodynamics of these systems can be regulated for optimal performance in an unknown and changing environment. In particular, we study how cortical oscillations can serve to amplify weak signals and sustain an input pattern for more accurate information processing, and how chaotic-like behavior could increase the sensitivity in initial, exploratory states. We mimic regulating mechanisms based on neuromodulators, intrinsic noise levels, and various synchronizing effects. We find optimal noise levels where system performance is maximized, and neuromodulatory strategies for an efficient pattern recognition, where the anticipatory state of the system plays an important role.

Conversation and compliance: role of interpersonal discussion and social norms in public communication campaigns.

PubMed

Frank, Lauren B; Chatterjee, Joyee S; Chaudhuri, Sonal T; Lapsansky, Charlotte; Bhanot, Anurudra; Murphy, Sheila T

2012-01-01

This study explores the role of interpersonal discussion and social norms in a public health campaign, the BBC Condom Normalization Campaign, designed to promote conversation and change the public perception of condom use in India. Drawing upon the integrative model of behavioral prediction, attitudes, self-efficacy, subjective norms, and descriptive norms were predicted to relate to behavioral intentions to use condoms. It is important to note that the valence of discussion was hypothesized to relate to each of these more proximal predictors. The authors used structural equation modeling to test the model on 3 separate samples of Indian men between the ages of 15 and 49 years: (a) high-risk men who had sex with nonspouses; (b) low-risk, sexually inactive, unmarried men; and (c) low-risk, monogamous, married men. Results were similar for low- and high-risk audiences, with valence of discussion about condoms predicting condom-related attitudes, self-efficacy, and subjective and descriptive social norms with respect to condom use, which, in turn, predicted behavioral intent to use condoms. These findings underscore the need to take not only the frequency but also the valence of interpersonal discussion into account when assessing the effect of health campaigns. Implications for theory and design of future public communication campaigns are explored.

Integrating Men’s Health and Masculinity Theories to Explain Colorectal Cancer Screening Behavior

PubMed Central

Christy, Shannon M.; Mosher, Catherine E.; Rawl, Susan M.

2013-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cause of cancer deaths among men in the United States. Although CRC screening has been found to reduce CRC incidence and mortality, current screening rates among men are suboptimal due to various practical and psychosocial barriers. One potential barrier to CRC screening identified in qualitative studies with men is the threat to masculinity that endoscopic screening methods pose. Indeed, beliefs about masculinity have been predictive of other preventive health behaviors among men. In this review paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework to explain men’s CRC screening behavior that integrates masculinity norms, gender role conflict, men’s health care experiences, behaviors, and beliefs, and social and background variables. This framework has the potential to guide future research on men’s CRC screening behaviors and other health behaviors and may inform gender-sensitive interventions which target masculinity beliefs to increase preventive health behaviors. PMID:23813927

Integrating men's health and masculinity theories to explain colorectal cancer screening behavior.

PubMed

Christy, Shannon M; Mosher, Catherine E; Rawl, Susan M

2014-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cause of cancer deaths among men in the United States. Although CRC screening has been found to reduce CRC incidence and mortality, current screening rates among men are suboptimal due to various practical and psychosocial barriers. One potential barrier to CRC screening identified in qualitative studies with men is the threat to masculinity that endoscopic screening methods pose. Indeed, beliefs about masculinity have been predictive of other preventive health behaviors among men. In this review article, we propose a novel conceptual framework to explain men's CRC screening behavior that integrates masculinity norms, gender role conflict, men's health care experiences, behaviors, and beliefs, and social and background variables. This framework has the potential to guide future research on men's CRC screening behaviors and other health behaviors and may inform gender-sensitive interventions that target masculinity beliefs to increase preventive health behaviors.

Behavioral outcomes for substance-exposed adopted children: fourteen years postadoption.

PubMed

Crea, Thomas M; Barth, Richard P; Guo, Shenyang; Brooks, Devon

2008-01-01

From a life course perspective, studies of cumulative disadvantage often identify early risk factors as predictors of poor outcomes. This study examined the influence of prenatal substance exposure on children's externalizing behaviors at 14 years postadoption. Using Wave 4 data from the California Long-Range Adoption Study, the authors employed growth curve modeling to examine behavioral trajectories of 275 children as influenced by foster care status, age at adoption, and gender. Outcomes are measured using a shortened Behavioral Problem Index. Prenatal exposure predicted elevated behavior problems that increased normatively compared with nonexposed children, and were not found to trigger the negative behavior sequelae once feared. Foster children tended to fare better over the life course than those adopted through other means, except for children adopted at older ages. Adopted children's problem behaviors may be directly associated with the success of their placements. The authors discuss implications for practice and future research. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Getting off on the right foot: subjective value versus economic value in predicting longitudinal job outcomes from job offer negotiations.

PubMed

Curhan, Jared R; Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Kilduff, Gavin J

2009-03-01

Although negotiation experiences can affect a negotiator's ensuing attitudes and behavior, little is known about their long-term consequences. Using a longitudinal survey design, the authors tested the degree to which economic and subjective value achieved in job offer negotiations predicts employees' subsequent job attitudes and intentions concerning turnover. Results indicate that subjective value predicts greater compensation satisfaction and job satisfaction and lower turnover intention measured 1 year later. Surprisingly, the economic outcomes that negotiators achieved had no apparent effects on these factors. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

A behavior change model for internet interventions.

PubMed

Ritterband, Lee M; Thorndike, Frances P; Cox, Daniel J; Kovatchev, Boris P; Gonder-Frederick, Linda A

2009-08-01

The Internet has become a major component to health care and has important implications for the future of the health care system. One of the most notable aspects of the Web is its ability to provide efficient, interactive, and tailored content to the user. Given the wide reach and extensive capabilities of the Internet, researchers in behavioral medicine have been using it to develop and deliver interactive and comprehensive treatment programs with the ultimate goal of impacting patient behavior and reducing unwanted symptoms. To date, however, many of these interventions have not been grounded in theory or developed from behavior change models, and no overarching model to explain behavior change in Internet interventions has yet been published. The purpose of this article is to propose a model to help guide future Internet intervention development and predict and explain behavior changes and symptom improvement produced by Internet interventions. The model purports that effective Internet interventions produce (and maintain) behavior change and symptom improvement via nine nonlinear steps: the user, influenced by environmental factors, affects website use and adherence, which is influenced by support and website characteristics. Website use leads to behavior change and symptom improvement through various mechanisms of change. The improvements are sustained via treatment maintenance. By grounding Internet intervention research within a scientific framework, developers can plan feasible, informed, and testable Internet interventions, and this form of treatment will become more firmly established.

Parent-Child Injury Prevention Conversations Following a Trip to the Emergency Department.

PubMed

O'Neal, Elizabeth E; Plumert, Jodie M; Peterson, Carole

2016-03-01

The goal of the study was to examine how parents use conversation to promote the internalization of safety values after their child has been seriously injured. Parent interviews detailing postinjury conversations were coded for strategies mentioned to prevent injuries in the future and information about circumstances surrounding the injury. Logistic regression analyses revealed that parents were more likely to discuss why an activity was dangerous with older than younger children, and were more likely to urge daughters than sons to be more careful in the future. Injuries resulting from the presence of environmental hazards predicted parents telling children to be more careful in the future. Having others involved predicted parents urging children not to engage in the behavior again. Findings suggest that parents modulated strategies according to age, gender, and injury circumstances to maximize the likelihood that children would behave differently in the future. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

On The Usage Of Fire Smoke Emissions In An Air Quality Forecasting System To Reduce Particular Matter Forecasting Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H. C.; Pan, L.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; DiMego, G.; Huang, J.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

2016-12-01

Wildfires contribute to air quality problems not only towards primary emissions of particular matters (PM) but also emitted ozone precursor gases that can lead to elevated ozone concentration. Wildfires are unpredictable and can be ignited by natural causes such as lightning or accidently by human negligent behavior such as live cigarette. Although wildfire impacts on the air quality can be studied by collecting fire information after events, it is extremely difficult to predict future occurrence and behavior of wildfires for real-time air quality forecasts. Because of the time constraints of operational air quality forecasting, assumption of future day's fire behavior often have to be made based on observed fire information in the past. The United States (U.S.) NOAA/NWS built the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) based on the U.S. EPA CMAQ to provide air quality forecast guidance (prediction) publicly. State and local forecasters use the forecast guidance to issue air quality alerts in their area. The NAQFC fine particulates (PM2.5) prediction includes emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, as well as natural sources such as dust storms and fires. The fire emission input to the NAQFC is derived from the NOAA NESDIS HMS fire and smoke detection product and the emission module of the US Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. This study focuses on the error estimation of NAQFC PM2.5 predictions resulting from fire emissions. The comparisons between the NAQFC modeled PM2.5 and the EPA AirNow surface observation show that present operational NAQFC fire emissions assumption can lead to a huge error in PM2.5 prediction as fire emissions are sometimes placed at wrong location and time. This PM2.5 prediction error can be propagated from the fire source in the Northwest U.S. to downstream areas as far as the Southeast U.S. From this study, a new procedure has been identified to minimize the aforementioned error. An additional 24 hours reanalysis-run of NAQFC using same-day observed fire emission are being tested. Preliminary results have shown that this procedure greatly improves the PM2.5 predictions at both nearby and downstream areas from fire sources. The 24 hours reanalysis-run is critical and necessary especially during extreme fire events to provide better PM2.5 predictions.

The Intersection of Emotional and Sociocognitive Competencies with Civic Engagement in Middle Childhood and Adolescence.

PubMed

Metzger, Aaron; Alvis, Lauren M; Oosterhoff, Benjamin; Babskie, Elizabeth; Syvertsen, Amy; Wray-Lake, Laura

2018-03-23

Civic developmental theory anticipates connections between normative developmental competencies and civic engagement, but little previous research has directly studied such links. The current study sought to contribute to civic development theory by examining associations between emotional and sociocognitive competencies (empathy, emotion regulation, prosocial moral reasoning, future-orientation) and civic engagement (volunteering, informal helping, political behaviors and beliefs, environmental behaviors, social responsibility values, civic skills). Data came from a geographically and racially diverse sample of 2467 youth (M age  = 13.4, Range: 8-20 years, 56% female). The results indicated that empathy and future-orientation significantly predicted nearly all forms of civic engagement, whereas emotion regulation and prosocial moral reasoning were uniquely associated with specific forms of civic engagement. Exploratory multi-group models indicated that empathy and emotion regulation were more strongly associated with civic engagement among younger youth and prosocial moral reasoning and future-orientation were more strongly related to civic engagement among older youth. The findings help to advance developmental theory of youth civic engagement.

Nature and Nurturing: Parenting in the Context of Child Temperament

PubMed Central

Kiff, Cara J.; Lengua, Liliana J.; Zalewski, Maureen

2011-01-01

Accounting for both bidirectional and interactive effects between parenting and child temperament can fine-tune theoretical models of the role of parenting and temperament in children's development of adjustment problems. Evidence for bidirectional and interactive effects between parenting and children's characteristics of frustration, fear, self-regulation, and impulsivity was reviewed, and an overall model of children's individual differences in response to parenting is proposed. In general, children high in frustration, impulsivity and low in effortful control are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of negative parenting, while in turn, many negative parenting behaviors predict increases in these characteristics. Frustration, fearfulness, and effortful control also appear to elicit parenting behaviors that can predict increases in these characteristics. Irritability renders children more susceptible to negative parenting behaviors. Fearfulness operates in a very complex manner, sometimes increasing children's responses to parenting behaviors and sometimes mitigating them and apparently operating differently across gender. Important directions for future research include the use of study designs and analytic approaches that account for the direction of effects and for developmental changes in parenting and temperament over time. PMID:21461681

Measures of behavioral function predict duration of video game play: Utilization of the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised.

PubMed

Buono, Frank D; Griffiths, Mark D; Sprong, Matthew E; Lloyd, Daniel P; Sullivan, Ryan M; Upton, Thomas D

2017-12-01

Background Internet gaming disorder (IGD) was introduced in the DSM-5 as a way of identifying and diagnosing problematic video game play. However, the use of the diagnosis is constrained, as it shares criteria with other addictive orders (e.g., pathological gambling). Aims Further work is required to better understand IGD. One potential avenue of investigation is IGD's relationship to the primary reinforcing behavioral functions. This study explores the relationship between duration of video game play and the reinforcing behavioral functions that may motivate or maintain video gaming. Methods A total of 499 video game players began the online survey, with complete data from 453 participants (85% white and 28% female), were analyzed. Individuals were placed into five groups based on self-reported hours of video gaming per week, and completed the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised (VGFA-R). Results The results demonstrated the escape and social attention function were significant in predicting duration of video game play, whereas sensory and tangible were not significant. Conclusion Future implications of the VGFA-R and behaviorally based research are discussed.

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

PubMed

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Applying theory-driven approaches to understanding and modifying clinicians' behavior: what do we know?

PubMed

Perkins, Matthew B; Jensen, Peter S; Jaccard, James; Gollwitzer, Peter; Oettingen, Gabriele; Pappadopulos, Elizabeth; Hoagwood, Kimberly E

2007-03-01

Despite major recent research advances, large gaps exist between accepted mental health knowledge and clinicians' real-world practices. Although hundreds of studies have successfully utilized basic behavioral science theories to understand, predict, and change patients' health behaviors, the extent to which these theories-most notably the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and its extension, the theory of planned behavior (TPB)-have been applied to understand and change clinician behavior is unclear. This article reviews the application of theory-driven approaches to understanding and changing clinician behaviors. MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases were searched, along with bibliographies, textbooks on health behavior or public health, and references from experts, to find article titles that describe theory-driven approaches (TRA or TPB) to understanding and modifying health professionals' behavior. A total of 19 articles that detailed 20 studies described the use of TRA or TPB and clinicians' behavior. Eight articles describe the use of TRA or TPB with physicians, four relate to nurses, three relate to pharmacists, and two relate to health workers. Only two articles applied TRA or TPB to mental health clinicians. The body of work shows that different constructs of TRA or TPB predict intentions and behavior among different groups of clinicians and for different behaviors and guidelines. The number of studies on this topic is extremely limited, but they offer a rationale and a direction for future research as well as a theoretical basis for increasing the specificity and efficiency of clinician-targeted interventions.

A Longitudinal Study of Violent Behavior in a Psychosis-Risk Cohort.

PubMed

Brucato, Gary; Appelbaum, Paul S; Lieberman, Jeffrey A; Wall, Melanie M; Feng, Tianshu; Masucci, Michael D; Altschuler, Rebecca; Girgis, Ragy R

2018-01-01

There is a lack of insight into the relationships between violent ideation, violent behavior, and early, particularly attenuated, psychosis. Our aims were to examine the relationships between baseline violent behavior and violent ideation and outcome violent behavior and conversion to psychosis in at-risk individuals. We longitudinally assessed 200 individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis for violent ideation and violent behavior using the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS), and rated these according to MacArthur Community Violence categories. Fifty-six individuals (28%) reported violent ideation at baseline, 12 (6%) reported violent behavior within 6 months pre-baseline, and 8 (4%) committed acts of violence during the follow-up time period. Information about violent ideation was obtained only by indirect, but not direct, inquiry about violent ideation. Both violent ideation and violent behavior at baseline significantly predicted violent behavior (RR=13.9, p=0.001; RR=8.3, p=0.003, respectively) during follow-up, as well as a diagnosis of psychosis (RR=2.3 and 2.4, respectively; both p<0.001), independent of more than 40 clinical and demographic variables. The targets of the subjects' violent ideation at baseline were completely different than their subsequent targets of violent behavior. Violent behavior occurred within 7 days (SD 35 days) of a diagnosis of syndromal psychosis. These data suggest that checking carefully for violent ideation and behavior in clinical high-risk patients is essential, as these have predictive value for conversion to psychosis and likelihood of violence in the future.

Opioid Attentional Bias and Cue-Elicited Craving Predict Future Risk of Prescription Opioid Misuse Among Chronic Pain Patients*

PubMed Central

Garland, Eric L.; Howard, Matthew O.

2014-01-01

Background Some chronic pain patients receiving long-term opioid analgesic pharmacotherapy are at risk for misusing opioids. Like other addictive behaviors, risk of opioid misuse may be signaled by an attentional bias (AB) towards drug-related cues. The purpose of this study was to examine opioid AB as a potential predictor of opioid misuse among chronic pain patients following behavioral treatment. Methods Chronic pain patients taking long-term opioid analgesics (N = 47) completed a dot probe task designed to assess opioid AB, as well as self-report measures of opioid misuse and pain severity, and then participated in behavioral treatment. Regression analyses examined opioid AB and cue-elicited craving as predictors of opioid misuse at 3-months posttreatment follow-up. Results Patients who scored high on a measure of opioid misuse risk following treatment exhibited significantly greater opioid AB scores than patients at low risk for opioid misuse. Opioid AB for 200 ms cues and cue-elicited craving significantly predicted opioid misuse risk 20 weeks later, even after controlling for pre-treatment opioid dependence diagnosis, opioid misuse, and pain severity (Model R2 = .50). Conclusion Biased initial attentional orienting to prescription opioid cues and cue-elicited craving may reliably signal future opioid misuse risk following treatment. These measures may therefore provide potential prognostic indicators of treatment outcome. PMID:25282309

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers and Reserve Variables as Predictors of Future "Non-Cognitive" Outcomes of Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Ingber, Adam P; Hassenstab, Jason; Fagan, Anne M; Benzinger, Tammie L S; Grant, Elizabeth A; Holtzman, David M; Morris, John C; Roe, Catherine M

2016-01-01

The influence of reserve variables and Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers on cognitive test performance has been fairly well-characterized. However, less is known about the influence of these factors on "non-cognitive" outcomes, including functional abilities and mood. We examined whether cognitive and brain reserve variables mediate how AD biomarker levels in cognitively normal persons predict future changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior. Non-cognitive outcomes were examined in 328 individuals 50 years and older enrolled in ongoing studies of aging and dementia at the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC). All participants were cognitively normal at baseline (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] 0), completed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and structural neuroimaging studies within one year of baseline, and were followed for an average of 4.6 annual visits. Linear mixed effects models explored how cognitive reserve and brain reserve variables mediate the relationships between AD biomarker levels and changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior in cognitively normal participants. Education levels did not have a significant effect on predicting non-cognitive decline. However, participants with smaller brain volumes exhibited the worst outcomes on measures of mood, functional abilities, and behavioral disturbance. This effect was most pronounced in individuals who also had abnormal CSF biomarkers. The findings suggest that brain reserve plays a stronger, or earlier, role than cognitive reserve in protecting against non-cognitive impairment in AD.

Assessing the Validity of the Simplified Potential Energy Clock Model for Modeling Glass-Ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamison, Ryan Dale; Grillet, Anne M.; Stavig, Mark E.

Glass-ceramic seals may be the future of hermetic connectors at Sandia National Laboratories. They have been shown capable of surviving higher temperatures and pressures than amorphous glass seals. More advanced finite-element material models are required to enable model-based design and provide evidence that the hermetic connectors can meet design requirements. Glass-ceramics are composite materials with both crystalline and amorphous phases. The latter gives rise to (non-linearly) viscoelastic behavior. Given their complex microstructures, glass-ceramics may be thermorheologically complex, a behavior outside the scope of currently implemented constitutive models at Sandia. However, it was desired to assess if the Simplified Potential Energymore » Clock (SPEC) model is capable of capturing the material response. Available data for SL 16.8 glass-ceramic was used to calibrate the SPEC model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing model predictions with shear moduli temperature dependence and high temperature 3-point bend creep data. It is shown that the model can predict the temperature dependence of the shear moduli and 3- point bend creep data. Analysis of the results is presented. Suggestions for future experiments and model development are presented. Though further calibration is likely necessary, SPEC has been shown capable of modeling glass-ceramic behavior in the glass transition region but requires further analysis below the transition region.« less

Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery.

PubMed

Tucker, Jalie A; Cheong, JeeWon; Chandler, Susan D; Lambert, Brice H; Pietrzak, Brittney; Kwok, Heather; Davies, Susan L

2016-12-01

As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. This study compared the predictive utility of this money-based "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts. Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of preresolution drinking practices and problems, analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks), and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the preresolution year. Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced preresolution allocations to drinking and savings (odds ratio = 1.77, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 3.08, p < 0.05), suggesting it is associated with longer-term behavior regulation processes than abstinence. The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of behavioral allocation. Stable low-risk drinking, but not abstinence, requires such regulatory processes. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Predicting risky choices from brain activity patterns

PubMed Central

Helfinstein, Sarah M.; Schonberg, Tom; Congdon, Eliza; Karlsgodt, Katherine H.; Mumford, Jeanette A.; Sabb, Fred W.; Cannon, Tyrone D.; London, Edythe D.; Bilder, Robert M.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

Previous research has implicated a large network of brain regions in the processing of risk during decision making. However, it has not yet been determined if activity in these regions is predictive of choices on future risky decisions. Here, we examined functional MRI data from a large sample of healthy subjects performing a naturalistic risk-taking task and used a classification analysis approach to predict whether individuals would choose risky or safe options on upcoming trials. We were able to predict choice category successfully in 71.8% of cases. Searchlight analysis revealed a network of brain regions where activity patterns were reliably predictive of subsequent risk-taking behavior, including a number of regions known to play a role in control processes. Searchlights with significant predictive accuracy were primarily located in regions more active when preparing to avoid a risk than when preparing to engage in one, suggesting that risk taking may be due, in part, to a failure of the control systems necessary to initiate a safe choice. Additional analyses revealed that subject choice can be successfully predicted with minimal decrements in accuracy using highly condensed data, suggesting that information relevant for risky choice behavior is encoded in coarse global patterns of activation as well as within highly local activation within searchlights. PMID:24550270

Predictive Effects of Good Self-Control and Poor Regulation on Alcohol-Related Outcomes: Do Protective Behavioral Strategies Mediate?

PubMed Central

Pearson, Matthew R.; Kite, Benjamin A.; Henson, James M.

2016-01-01

In the present study, we examined whether use of protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between self-control constructs and alcohol-related outcomes. According to the two-mode model of self-control, good self-control (planfulness; measured with Future Time Perspective, Problem Solving, and Self-Reinforcement) and poor regulation (impulsivity; measured with Present Time Perspective, Poor Delay of Gratification, Distractibility) are theorized to be relatively independent constructs rather than opposite ends of a single continuum. The analytic sample consisted of 278 college student drinkers (68% women) who responded to a battery of surveys at a single time point. Using a structural equation model based on the two-mode model of self-control, we found that good self-control predicted increased use of three types of protective behavioral strategies (Manner of Drinking, Limiting/Stopping Drinking, and Serious Harm Reduction). Poor regulation was unrelated to use of protective behavioral strategies, but had direct effects on alcohol use and alcohol problems. Further, protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between good self-control and alcohol use. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22663345

The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Health and Nutrition Literacy and Adherence to Treatment in Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults With Chronic Kidney Disease and Hypertension, North Carolina, 2015

PubMed Central

Ferris, Maria; Rak, Eniko

2016-01-01

Introduction Adherence to treatment and dietary restrictions is important for health outcomes of patients with chronic/end-stage kidney disease and hypertension. The relationship of adherence with nutritional and health literacy in children, adolescents, and young adults is not well understood. The current study examined the relationship of health literacy, nutrition knowledge, nutrition knowledge–behavior concordance, and medication adherence in a sample of children and young people with chronic/end-stage kidney disease and hypertension. Methods We enrolled 74 patients (aged 7–29 y) with a diagnosis of chronic/end-stage kidney disease and hypertension from the University of North Carolina Kidney Center. Participants completed instruments of nutrition literacy (Disease-Specific Nutrition Knowledge Test), health literacy (Newest Vital Sign), nutrition behavior (Nutrition Knowledge–Behavior Concordance Scale), and medication adherence (Morisky Medication Adherence Scale). Linear and binary logistic regressions were used to test the associations. Results In univariate comparisons, nutrition knowledge was significantly higher in people with adequate health literacy. Medication adherence was related to nutrition knowledge and nutrition knowledge–behavior concordance. Multivariate regression models demonstrated that knowledge of disease-specific nutrition restrictions did not significantly predict nutrition knowledge–behavior concordance scores. In logistic regression, knowledge of nutrition restrictions did not significantly predict medication adherence. Lastly, health literacy and nutrition knowledge–behavior concordance were significant predictors of medication adherence. Conclusion Nutrition knowledge and health literacy skills are positively associated. Nutrition knowledge, health literacy, and nutrition knowledge–behavior concordance are positively related to medication adherence. Future research should focus on additional factors that may predict disease-specific nutrition behavior (adherence to dietary restrictions) in children and young people with chronic conditions. PMID:27490366

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richon, K.; Schatten, K.

2003-01-01

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Influence versus intent for predictive analytics in situation awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Biru; Yang, Shanchieh J.; Kadar, Ivan

2013-05-01

Predictive analytics in situation awareness requires an element to comprehend and anticipate potential adversary activities that might occur in the future. Most work in high level fusion or predictive analytics utilizes machine learning, pattern mining, Bayesian inference, and decision tree techniques to predict future actions or states. The emergence of social computing in broader contexts has drawn interests in bringing the hypotheses and techniques from social theory to algorithmic and computational settings for predictive analytics. This paper aims at answering the question on how influence and attitude (some interpreted such as intent) of adversarial actors can be formulated and computed algorithmically, as a higher level fusion process to provide predictions of future actions. The challenges in this interdisciplinary endeavor include drawing existing understanding of influence and attitude in both social science and computing fields, as well as the mathematical and computational formulation for the specific context of situation to be analyzed. The study of `influence' has resurfaced in recent years due to the emergence of social networks in the virtualized cyber world. Theoretical analysis and techniques developed in this area are discussed in this paper in the context of predictive analysis. Meanwhile, the notion of intent, or `attitude' using social theory terminologies, is a relatively uncharted area in the computing field. Note that a key objective of predictive analytics is to identify impending/planned attacks so their `impact' and `threat' can be prevented. In this spirit, indirect and direct observables are drawn and derived to infer the influence network and attitude to predict future threats. This work proposes an integrated framework that jointly assesses adversarial actors' influence network and their attitudes as a function of past actions and action outcomes. A preliminary set of algorithms are developed and tested using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Our results reveals the benefits to perform joint predictive analytics with both attitude and influence. At the same time, we discover significant challenges in deriving influence and attitude from indirect observables for diverse adversarial behavior. These observations warrant further investigation of optimal use of influence and attitude for predictive analytics, as well as the potential inclusion of other environmental or capability elements for the actors.

A taxonomy of prospection: introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K; Spreng, R Nathan; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-12-30

Prospection--the ability to represent what might happen in the future--is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior.

Interactions of timing and prediction error learning.

PubMed

Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

Timing and prediction error learning have historically been treated as independent processes, but growing evidence has indicated that they are not orthogonal. Timing emerges at the earliest time point when conditioned responses are observed, and temporal variables modulate prediction error learning in both simple conditioning and cue competition paradigms. In addition, prediction errors, through changes in reward magnitude or value alter timing of behavior. Thus, there appears to be a bi-directional interaction between timing and prediction error learning. Modern theories have attempted to integrate the two processes with mixed success. A neurocomputational approach to theory development is espoused, which draws on neurobiological evidence to guide and constrain computational model development. Heuristics for future model development are presented with the goal of sparking new approaches to theory development in the timing and prediction error fields. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Number of Sexual Partners and Health-Risking Sexual Behavior: Prediction from High School Entry to High School Exit

PubMed Central

Van Ryzin, Mark J.; Johnson, Amber B.; Leve, Leslie D.; Hyoun, Kim K.

2013-01-01

Precursors to adolescent health-risking sexual behavior (HRSB) were examined in a normative sample of 373 adolescents (48.0% female, n = 178). Using a variable-oriented approach, we regressed the number of sexual partners at high school exit (age 17) on parental monitoring, association with delinquent peers, romantic relationship status, problem behavior, physical maturity, and tobacco and alcohol use at high school entry (age 14); all emerged as significant predictors except alcohol use and physical maturity (we found sex differences in physical maturity and romantic relationship status, with females being more advanced in both areas). Sexual experimentation at high school entry served to partially or fully mediate the impact of these factors. A person-oriented approach, using a broader measure of HRSB, found three subgroups of adolescents: abstainers, low-risk-takers, and high-risk-takers. Results predicting membership in these groups generally followed those from the variable-oriented analysis. Implications for the prevention of HRSB and future research directions are discussed. PMID:20703789

Primary Auditory Cortex is Required for Anticipatory Motor Response.

PubMed

Li, Jingcheng; Liao, Xiang; Zhang, Jianxiong; Wang, Meng; Yang, Nian; Zhang, Jun; Lv, Guanghui; Li, Haohong; Lu, Jian; Ding, Ran; Li, Xingyi; Guang, Yu; Yang, Zhiqi; Qin, Han; Jin, Wenjun; Zhang, Kuan; He, Chao; Jia, Hongbo; Zeng, Shaoqun; Hu, Zhian; Nelken, Israel; Chen, Xiaowei

2017-06-01

The ability of the brain to predict future events based on the pattern of recent sensory experience is critical for guiding animal's behavior. Neocortical circuits for ongoing processing of sensory stimuli are extensively studied, but their contributions to the anticipation of upcoming sensory stimuli remain less understood. We, therefore, used in vivo cellular imaging and fiber photometry to record mouse primary auditory cortex to elucidate its role in processing anticipated stimulation. We found neuronal ensembles in layers 2/3, 4, and 5 which were activated in relationship to anticipated sound events following rhythmic stimulation. These neuronal activities correlated with the occurrence of anticipatory motor responses in an auditory learning task. Optogenetic manipulation experiments revealed an essential role of such neuronal activities in producing the anticipatory behavior. These results strongly suggest that the neural circuits of primary sensory cortex are critical for coding predictive information and transforming it into anticipatory motor behavior. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Parental mind-mindedness but not false belief understanding predicts Hong Kong children's lie-telling behavior in a temptation resistance task.

PubMed

Wang, Lamei; Zhu, Liqi; Wang, Zhenlin

2017-10-01

Children can tell lies before they understand the concept of false belief. This study investigated the relationship between parental mind-mindedness, defined as the propensity of parents to view their children as mental agents with independent thoughts and feelings, and the lie-telling behavior of Hong Kong children aged 3-6years. The results confirmed earlier findings indicating that Hong Kong children's understanding of false belief is delayed; nevertheless, the participants appeared to lie just as well as children from other cultures. The lie-telling behavior of Hong Kong children was predicted by parental mind-mindedness and children's age but was unrelated to children's false belief understanding. It is suggested that children of mind-minded parents are more likely to exercise autonomy in socially ambiguous situations. Future studies should focus on the roles of parenting and children's multifaceted autonomy when addressing children's adaptive lie telling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Action Tweets Linked to Reduced County-Level HIV Prevalence in the United States: Online Messages and Structural Determinants

PubMed Central

Ireland, Molly E.; Chen, Qijia; Schwartz, H. Andrew; Ungar, Lyle H.; Albarracin, Dolores

2016-01-01

HIV is uncommon in most US counties but travels quickly through vulnerable communities when it strikes. Tracking behavior through social media may provide an unobtrusive, naturalistic means of predicting HIV outbreaks and understanding the behavioral and psychological factors that increase communities'; risk. General action goals, or the motivation to engage in cognitive and motor activity, may support protective health behavior (e.g., using condoms) or encourage activity indiscriminately (e.g., risky sex), resulting in mixed health effects. We explored these opposing hypotheses by regressing county-level HIV prevalence on action language (e.g., work, plan) in over 150 million tweets mapped to US counties. Controlling for demographic and structural predictors of HIV, more active language was associated with lower HIV rates. By leveraging language used on social media to improve existing predictive models of geographic variation in HIV, future targeted HIV-prevention interventions may have a better chance of reaching high-risk communities before outbreaks occur. PMID:26650382

The number of sexual partners and health-risking sexual behavior: prediction from high school entry to high school exit.

PubMed

Van Ryzin, Mark J; Johnson, Amber B; Leve, Leslie D; Kim, Hyoun K

2011-10-01

Precursors to adolescent health-risking sexual behavior (HRSB) were examined in a normative sample of 373 adolescents (48.0% female, n = 178). Using a variable-oriented approach, we regressed the number of sexual partners at high school exit (age 17) on parental monitoring, association with delinquent peers, romantic relationship status, problem behavior, physical maturity, and tobacco and alcohol use at high school entry (age 14); all emerged as significant predictors except alcohol use and physical maturity (we found sex differences in physical maturity and romantic relationship status, with females being more advanced in both areas). Sexual experimentation at high school entry served to partially or fully mediate the impact of these factors. A person-oriented approach, using a broader measure of HRSB, found three subgroups of adolescents: abstainers, low-risk-takers, and high-risk-takers. Results predicting membership in these groups generally followed those from the variable-oriented analysis. Implications for the prevention of HRSB and future research directions are discussed.

Examining the moderating role of family cohesion on the relationship between witnessed community violence and delinquency in a national sample of adolescents.

PubMed

Barr, Simone C; Hanson, Rochelle; Begle, Angela M; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Saunders, Benjamin; Resnick, Heidi; Amstadter, Ananda

2012-01-01

Witnessed community violence has been linked to a number of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescents. Guided by Cicchetti and Lynch's (1993) ecological-transactional model, this study aimed to examine the impact that family-level factors had on negative outcomes associated with witnessed community violence. Using a nationally representative sample, we explored the moderational role of family cohesion in the relationship between witnessing community violence and delinquent behavior while taking demographic variables into account. Results from the investigation suggested that low levels of family cohesion were predictive of delinquency after controlling for race, gender, past delinquency, and direct trauma. In addition, the findings suggested that family cohesion moderated the impact of witnessed community violence on future delinquent behavior. Future directions for research and implications for practice were also discussed.

Behavioral flexibility and problem solving in an invasive bird

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Behavioral flexibility is considered an important trait for adapting to environmental change, but it is unclear what it is, how it works, and whether it is a problem solving ability. I investigated behavioral flexibility and problem solving experimentally in great-tailed grackles, an invasive bird species and thus a likely candidate for possessing behavioral flexibility. Grackles demonstrated behavioral flexibility in two contexts, the Aesop’s Fable paradigm and a color association test. Contrary to predictions, behavioral flexibility did not correlate across contexts. Four out of 6 grackles exhibited efficient problem solving abilities, but problem solving efficiency did not appear to be directly linked with behavioral flexibility. Problem solving speed also did not significantly correlate with reversal learning scores, indicating that faster learners were not the most flexible. These results reveal how little we know about behavioral flexibility, and provide an immense opportunity for future research to explore how individuals and species can use behavior to react to changing environments. PMID:27168984

Towards collaborative filtering recommender systems for tailored health communications.

PubMed

Marlin, Benjamin M; Adams, Roy J; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient "profiles" and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user's past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy.

Towards Collaborative Filtering Recommender Systems for Tailored Health Communications

PubMed Central

Marlin, Benjamin M.; Adams, Roy J.; Sadasivam, Rajani; Houston, Thomas K.

2013-01-01

The goal of computer tailored health communications (CTHC) is to promote healthy behaviors by sending messages tailored to individual patients. Current CTHC systems collect baseline patient “profiles” and then use expert-written, rule-based systems to target messages to subsets of patients. Our main interest in this work is the study of collaborative filtering-based CTHC systems that can learn to tailor future message selections to individual patients based explicit feedback about past message selections. This paper reports the results of a study designed to collect explicit feedback (ratings) regarding four aspects of messages from 100 subjects in the smoking cessation support domain. Our results show that most users have positive opinions of most messages and that the ratings for all four aspects of the messages are highly correlated with each other. Finally, we conduct a range of rating prediction experiments comparing several different model variations. Our results show that predicting future ratings based on each user’s past ratings contributes the most to predictive accuracy. PMID:24551430

Integrating Models of Diffusion and Behavior to Predict Innovation Adoption, Maintenance, and Social Diffusion.

PubMed

Smith, Rachel A; Kim, Youllee; Zhu, Xun; Doudou, Dimi Théodore; Sternberg, Eleanore D; Thomas, Matthew B

2018-01-01

This study documents an investigation into the adoption and diffusion of eave tubes, a novel mosquito vector control, during a large-scale scientific field trial in West Africa. The diffusion of innovations (DOI) and the integrated model of behavior (IMB) were integrated (i.e., innovation attributes with attitudes and social pressures with norms) to predict participants' (N = 329) diffusion intentions. The findings showed that positive attitudes about the innovation's attributes were a consistent positive predictor of diffusion intentions: adopting it, maintaining it, and talking with others about it. As expected by the DOI and the IMB, the social pressure created by a descriptive norm positively predicted intentions to adopt and maintain the innovation. Drawing upon sharing research, we argued that the descriptive norm may dampen future talk about the innovation, because it may no longer be seen as a novel, useful topic to discuss. As predicted, the results showed that as the descriptive norm increased, the intention to talk about the innovation decreased. These results provide broad support for integrating the DOI and the IMB to predict diffusion and for efforts to draw on other research to understand motivations for social diffusion.

Effects of Elevated CO2 and Decreased Dissolved Oxygen on Phototactic Behaviors of Juvenile Dungeness Crab (Cancer magister)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imm, J.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are increasing the concentration of CO2 in the oceans, and contributing to ocean acidification (OA), while increasing ocean temperatures and eutrophication are causing decreased levels of dissolved oxygen (DO). Due to coastal upwelling and limited water flow, the Puget Sound ecosystem is naturally high in CO2 and seasonally low in DO, making it particularly susceptible to increased acidification and hypoxia. Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister) are both ecologically and economically important to the Puget Sound region. To investigate the threat of low pH and DO to C. magister behavior, megalopae and juveniles were exposed to current and predicted future levels of pH and DO. Juveniles were then placed in a dark container with a single bright light, and movement and phototaxis were studied during three-minute trials. We hypothesized that low pH and low DO conditions would alter phototactic behaviors of juvenile C. magister, through changes in neurotransmission and metabolism. C. magister reared in control (High pH-High DO) conditions spent a greater proportion of their time near the light, and were significantly more likely to touch the light during the three-minute trial, as compared to juveniles in the other treatment conditions. These results suggest that future predicted CO2 and DO conditions in Puget Sound could disrupt the behavioral and cognitive abilities of juvenile crabs, leading to decreased survival and recruitment in the C. magister population. Given the importance of C. magister to the Puget Sound, these population changes could have significant ecological and economic implications for the region.

Effects of Elevated CO2 and Decreased Dissolved Oxygen on Phototactic Behaviors of Juvenile Dungeness Crab (Cancer magister)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imm, J.

2016-02-01

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are increasing the concentration of CO2 in the oceans, and contributing to ocean acidification (OA), while increasing ocean temperatures and eutrophication are causing decreased levels of dissolved oxygen (DO). Due to coastal upwelling and limited water flow, the Puget Sound ecosystem is naturally high in CO2 and seasonally low in DO, making it particularly susceptible to increased acidification and hypoxia. Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister) are both ecologically and economically important to the Puget Sound region. To investigate the threat of low pH and DO to C. magister behavior, megalopae and juveniles were exposed to current and predicted future levels of pH and DO. Juveniles were then placed in a dark container with a single bright light, and movement and phototaxis were studied during three-minute trials. We hypothesized that low pH and low DO conditions would alter phototactic behaviors of juvenile C. magister, through changes in neurotransmission and metabolism. C. magister reared in control (High pH-High DO) conditions spent a greater proportion of their time near the light, and were significantly more likely to touch the light during the three-minute trial, as compared to juveniles in the other treatment conditions. These results suggest that future predicted CO2 and DO conditions in Puget Sound could disrupt the behavioral and cognitive abilities of juvenile crabs, leading to decreased survival and recruitment in the C. magister population. Given the importance of C. magister to the Puget Sound, these population changes could have significant ecological and economic implications for the region.

When parsimony is not enough: Considering dual processes and dual levels of influence in sexual decision making

PubMed Central

Rendina, H. Jonathon

2015-01-01

The literature on sexual decision making that has been used to understand behaviors relevant to HIV and STI risk has relied primarily on cognitive antecedents of behavior. In contrast, several prominent models of decision making outside of the sexual behavior literature rely on dual process models, in which both affective and cognitive processing are considered important precursors to behavior. Moreover, much of the literature on sexual behavior utilizes individual-level traits and characteristics to predict aggregated sexual behavior, despite decision making itself being a situational or event-level process. This paper proposes a framework for understanding sexual decision making as the result of dual processes (affective and cognitive) operating at dual level of influence (individual and situational). Finally, the paper ends with a discussion of the conceptual and methodological benefits and challenges to its use and future directions for research. PMID:26168978

Unethical behavior in the name of the company: the moderating effect of organizational identification and positive reciprocity beliefs on unethical pro-organizational behavior.

PubMed

Umphress, Elizabeth E; Bingham, John B; Mitchell, Marie S

2010-07-01

We examined the relationship between organizational identification and unethical pro-organizational behavior (UPB)-unethical behaviors conducted by employees to potentially benefit the organization. We predicted that organizational identification would be positively related to UPB and that positive reciprocity beliefs would moderate and strengthen this relationship. The results from 2 field studies support the interaction effect and show that individuals who strongly identify with their organization are more likely to engage in UPB when they hold strong positive reciprocity beliefs. Given the nature of reciprocity, our findings may suggest that highly identified employees who hold strong reciprocity beliefs may conduct UPB with an anticipation of a future reward from their organization. Theoretical and managerial implications of our results for understanding unethical behaviors are discussed.

Predicting intentions to adopt safe home food handling practices. Applying the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Shapiro, Michael A; Porticella, Norman; Jiang, L Crystal; Gravani, Robert B

2011-02-01

While most home cooks know about safe home food handling procedures, compliance is generally low and has not been much improved by campaigns. Foodborne disease is a common cause of illness, hospitalization and even death, and many of these illnesses are caused by unsafe home food practices. Using the theory of planned behavior as a model, survey data were analyzed. Perceived behavioral control was the strongest predictor of behavioral intentions for both hand washing and food thermometer use. Subjective norm was the next strongest predictor for thermometer use, while attitude towards the behavior was the next strongest predictor for hand washing. This is consistent with earlier focus group results for thermometer use and suggests some possible strategies for designing future home food safety messages. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of Biological and Adoptive Mothers’ Depression and Antisocial Behavior on Adoptees’ Early Behavior Trajectories

PubMed Central

Kerr, David C. R.; Leve, Leslie D.; Harold, Gordon T.; Natsuaki, Misaki; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Reiss, David

2013-01-01

Research clearly demonstrates that parents pass risk for depression and antisocial behavior on to their children. However, most research confounds genetic and environmental mechanisms by studying genetically related individuals. Furthermore, most studies focus on either depression or antisocial behavior in parents or children, despite evidence of co-occurrence and shared etiology, and few consider the early origins of these problems in childhood. We estimated the influence of biological and adoptive mothers’ depression and antisocial behavior on growth in child externalizing and internalizing behaviors across early childhood using data from a prospective adoption study. Participants were 346 matched triads of physically healthy children (196 boys; 150 girls), biological mothers (BM), and adoptive mothers (AM). Latent growth curve models were estimated using AM reports of child internalizing and externalizing behaviors at ages 18, 27, and 54 months. Predictors of intercept (18 months) but not slope were identified. BM lifetime histories of major depressive disorder predicted child externalizing behaviors and BM antisocial behavior predicted child internalizing behavior. AM depressive symptoms and antisocial behavior were associated with both child outcomes. AM paths, but not BM paths were partially replicated using adopted fathers’ reports of child outcomes. BM obstetric complications, prenatal depressive symptoms, and postnatal adoptive family contact with BM did not account for BM paths. This adoption study distinguished risks conferred by biological mothers’ depression and antisocial behavior to children’s behaviors from those associated with adoptive mothers’ related symptoms. Future studies should examine gene-environment interplay to explain the emergence of serious problem trajectories in later childhood. PMID:23408036

Influences of biological and adoptive mothers' depression and antisocial behavior on adoptees' early behavior trajectories.

PubMed

Kerr, David C R; Leve, Leslie D; Harold, Gordon T; Natsuaki, Misaki N; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Shaw, Daniel S; Reiss, David

2013-07-01

Research clearly demonstrates that parents pass risk for depression and antisocial behavior on to their children. However, most research confounds genetic and environmental mechanisms by studying genetically related individuals. Furthermore, most studies focus on either depression or antisocial behavior in parents or children, despite evidence of co-occurrence and shared etiology, and few consider the early origins of these problems in childhood. We estimated the influence of biological and adoptive mothers' depression and antisocial behavior on growth in child externalizing and internalizing behaviors across early childhood using data from a prospective adoption study. Participants were 346 matched triads of physically healthy children (196 boys; 150 girls), biological mothers (BM), and adoptive mothers (AM). Latent growth curve models were estimated using AM reports of child internalizing and externalizing behaviors at ages 18, 27, and 54 months. Predictors of intercept (18 months) but not slope were identified. BM lifetime histories of major depressive disorder predicted child externalizing behaviors and BM antisocial behavior predicted child internalizing behavior. AM depressive symptoms and antisocial behavior were associated with both child outcomes. AM paths, but not BM paths were partially replicated using adopted fathers' reports of child outcomes. BM obstetric complications, prenatal depressive symptoms, and postnatal adoptive family contact with BM did not account for BM paths. This adoption study distinguished risks conferred by biological mothers' depression and antisocial behavior to children's behaviors from those associated with adoptive mothers' related symptoms. Future studies should examine gene-environment interplay to explain the emergence of serious problem trajectories in later childhood.

Assessment of an alternative postdeployment reintegration strategy with soldiers returning from Iraq.

PubMed

Sipos, Maurice L; Foran, Heather M; Wood, Michael D; Wright, Kathleen M; Barnhart, Vincent J; Riviere, Lyndon A; Adler, Amy B

2014-05-01

The present study examined behavioral health outcomes, risk behaviors, aggression, alcohol misuse, marital satisfaction, and attitudes toward reintegration associated with an alternative, front-loaded reintegration strategy compared with a more standardized reintegration process in soldiers returning from combat deployments. The type of reintegration strategy used did not predict differences in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, alcohol misuse, aggression, and marital satisfaction, although slightly higher reports of risk behaviors were found in the unit using the standard reintegration approach even after controlling for demographic covariates and combat exposure. These findings may help guide leadership when making decisions regarding reintegration approaches in the future. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Explanatory style, dispositional optimism, and reported parental behavior.

PubMed

Hjelle, L A; Busch, E A; Warren, J E

1996-12-01

The relationship between two cognitive personality constructs (explanatory style and dispositional optimism) and retrospective self-reports of maternal and paternal behavior were investigated. College students (62 men and 145 women) completed the Life Orientation Test, Attributional Style Questionnaire, and Parental Acceptance-Rejection Questionnaire in a single session. As predicted, dispositional optimism was positively correlated with reported maternal and paternal warmth/acceptance and negatively correlated with aggression/hostility, neglect/indifference, and undifferentiated rejection during middle childhood. Unexpectedly, explanatory style was found to be more strongly associated with retrospective reports of paternal as opposed to maternal behavior. The implications of these results for future research concerning the developmental antecedents of differences in explanatory style and dispositional optimism are discussed.

Visual prediction and perceptual expertise

PubMed Central

Cheung, Olivia S.; Bar, Moshe

2012-01-01

Making accurate predictions about what may happen in the environment requires analogies between perceptual input and associations in memory. These elements of predictions are based on cortical representations, but little is known about how these processes can be enhanced by experience and training. On the other hand, studies on perceptual expertise have revealed that the acquisition of expertise leads to strengthened associative processing among features or objects, suggesting that predictions and expertise may be tightly connected. Here we review the behavioral and neural findings regarding the mechanisms involving prediction and expert processing, and highlight important possible overlaps between them. Future investigation should examine the relations among perception, memory and prediction skills as a function of expertise. The knowledge gained by this line of research will have implications for visual cognition research, and will advance our understanding of how the human brain can improve its ability to predict by learning from experience. PMID:22123523

Predicting Future Theatrical and Video Movie Use: Movie Gratifications, Avoidances, and Dependency.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliott, William R.; And Others

Three successive models were developed to test the existence of a need that leads individuals to select one mass medium over another and also to examine the idea of audience activity. Since it has been noted that uses and gratifications research has focused excessively on habitual media behaviors, the focus instead was on a medium where choice…

Joint Utility of Event-Dependent and Environmental Crime Analysis Techniques for Violent Crime Forecasting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caplan, Joel M.; Kennedy, Leslie W.; Piza, Eric L.

2013-01-01

Violent crime incidents occurring in Irvington, New Jersey, in 2007 and 2008 are used to assess the joint analytical capabilities of point pattern analysis, hotspot mapping, near-repeat analysis, and risk terrain modeling. One approach to crime analysis suggests that the best way to predict future crime occurrence is to use past behavior, such as…

Attitudes and perceptions of workers to sexual harassment.

PubMed

McCabe, Marita P; Hardman, Lisa

2005-12-01

The authors investigated how individual factors (age, gender, gender role, past experiences of sexual harassment) and organizational factors (gender ratio, sexual harassment policies, the role of employers) related to workers' attitudes toward and perceptions of sexual harassment. In Study 1, participants were 176 workers from a large, white-collar organization. In Study 2, participants were 75 workers from a smaller, blue-collar organization. Individuals from Study 2 experienced more sexual harassment, were more tolerant of sexual harassment, and perceived less behavior as sexual harassment than did individuals from Study 1. For both samples, organizational and individual factors predicted workers' attitudes toward and experiences of sexual harassment. Individual factors-such as age, gender, gender role, past experiences of sexual harassment, and perceptions of management's tolerance of sexual harassment-predicted attitudes toward sexual harassment. Workers' attitudes, the behavioral context, and the gender of the victim and perpetrator predicted perceptions of sexual harassment. The authors discussed the broader implications of these findings and suggested recommendations for future research.

The relationship between school engagement and delinquency in late childhood and early adolescence.

PubMed

Hirschfield, Paul J; Gasper, Joseph

2011-01-01

Engagement in school is crucial for academic success and school completion. Surprisingly little research has focused on the relationship between student engagement and delinquency. This study examines whether engagement predicts subsequent school and general misconduct among 4,890 inner-city Chicago elementary school students (mean age: 11 years and 4 months; 43.3% boys; 66.5% black; 28.8% Latino). To improve upon prior research in this area, we distinguish three types of engagement (emotional, behavioral, and cognitive), examine whether the relationship between engagement and misconduct is bidirectional (misconduct also impairs engagement), and control for possible common causes of low engagement and misconduct, including peer and family relationships and relatively stable indicators of risk-proneness. Emotional and behavioral engagement predict decreases in school and general delinquency. However, cognitive engagement is associated with increases in these outcomes. School and general delinquency predict decreased engagement only in the cognitive domain. Suggestions for future research and implications for policy are discussed.

Curiosity predicts smoking experimentation independent of susceptibility in a US national sample.

PubMed

Nodora, Jesse; Hartman, Sheri J; Strong, David R; Messer, Karen; Vera, Lisa E; White, Martha M; Portnoy, David B; Choiniere, Conrad J; Vullo, Genevieve C; Pierce, John P

2014-12-01

To improve smoking prevention efforts, better methods for identifying at-risk youth are needed. The widely used measure of susceptibility to smoking identifies at-risk adolescents; however, it correctly identifies only about one third of future smokers. Adding curiosity about smoking to this susceptibility index may allow us to identify a greater proportion of future smokers while they are still pre-teens. We use longitudinal data from a recent national study on parenting to prevent problem behaviors. Only oldest children between 10 and 13years of age were eligible. Participants were identified by RDD survey and followed for 6years. All baseline never smokers with at least one follow-up assessment were included (n=878). The association of curiosity about smoking with future smoking behavior was assessed. Then, curiosity was added to form an enhanced susceptibility index and sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were calculated. Among committed never smokers at baseline, those who were 'definitely not curious' were less likely to progress toward smoking than both those who were 'probably not curious' (ORadj=1.89; 95% CI=1.03-3.47) or 'probably/definitely curious' (ORadj=2.88; 95% CI=1.11-7.45). Incorporating curiosity into the susceptibility index increased the proportion identified as at-risk to smoke from 25.1% to 46.9%. The sensitivity (true positives) for this enhanced susceptibility index for both experimentation and established smoking increased from 37-40% to over 50%, although the positive predictive value did not improve. The addition of curiosity significantly improves the identification and classification of which adolescents will experiment with smoking or become established smokers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Origins of 12-Month Attachment: A Microanalysis of 4-Month Mother-Infant Interaction

PubMed Central

Beebe, Beatrice; Jaffe, Joseph; Markese, Sara; Buck, Karen; Chen, Henian; Cohen, Patricia; Bahrick, Lorraine; Andrews, Howard; Feldstein, Stanley

2013-01-01

A detailed microanalysis of 4-month mother-infant face-to-face communication revealed a fine-grained specification of essential communication processes that predicted 12-month insecure attachment outcomes, particularly resistant and disorganized classifications. An urban community sample of 84 dyads were videotaped at 4 months during a face-to-face interaction, and at 12 months during the Ainsworth Strange Situation. Four-month mother and infant communication modalities of attention, affect, touch, and spatial orientation were coded from split-screen videotape on a 1s time base; mother and infant facial-visual “engagement” variables were constructed. We used contingency measures (multi-level time-series modeling) to examine the dyadic temporal process over time, and specific rates of qualitative features of behavior to examine the content of behavior. Self-contingency (auto-correlation) measured the degree of stability/lability within an individual’s own rhythms of behavior; interactive contingency (lagged cross-correlation) measured adjustments of the individual’s behavior that were correlated with the partner’s previous behavior. We documented that both self- and interactive contingency, as well as specific qualitative features, of mother and infant behavior were mechanisms of attachment formation by 4 months, distinguishing 12-month insecure, resistant, and disorganized attachment classifications from secure; avoidant were too few to test. All communication modalities made unique contributions. The separate analysis of different communication modalities identified intermodal discrepancies or conflict, both intrapersonal and interpersonal, that characterized insecure dyads. Contrary to dominant theories in the literature on face-to-face interaction, measures of maternal contingent coordination with infant yielded the fewest associations with 12-month attachment, whereas mother and infant self-contingency, and infant contingent coordination with mother, yielded comparable numbers of findings. Rather than the more usual hypothesis that more contingency is “better,” we partially supported our hypothesis that 12-month insecurity is associated with both higher and lower 4-month self- and interactive contingency values than secure, as a function of mother vs. infant and communication modality. Thus, in the origins of attachment security, more contingency is not necessarily better. A remarkable degree of differentiation was identified in the 4-month patterns of “future” C and D infants, classified as resistant and disorganized, respectively, at 12 months. Only future D infants were emotionally distressed, with simultaneous positive and negative discrepant affect; only their mothers showed difficulty in sharing infant affect, particularly distress, and lowered their contingent coordination with infant facial-visual engagement. This lowered contingent coordination makes it more difficult for infants to come to expect that their emotional/attentional states can influence mothers to coordinate with them and thus compromises the infant’s sense of interactive efficacy. Only future C dyads showed the spatial approach/avoid pattern of “chase and dodge;” only mothers of future D infants showed the spatial intrusion pattern of “looming” into the infant’s face. Both future C and D dyads showed patterns of touch dysregulation. Future C infants inhibited their emotional coordination with mothers’ less affectionate touch, as if tuning it out. Future D dyads showed a dyadic touch dysregulation, in which mothers lowered their coordination with infant touch, while infants had a lowered ability to use their own touch. Both mothers of future C and D infants disturbed the stability of the spatial “frame” of the encounter by transitioning among upward, forward and loom orientations in less predictable ways than mothers of future B infants. Only mothers of future D infants disturbed the attentional “frame” as well, by looking and looking away from the infant’s face in less predictable ways than mothers of future B infants. Only mothers of future D infants showed methods of managing their own state which distanced them from their infants, such as extensive looking away and “closing up” their faces. The intact interactive contingency of the mother of the future C infant overall safeguards the infant’s interactive agency, and the infant’s expectation that mother will match the direction of infant affective change, sharing infant states. However, we proposed that the future C infant will have difficulty feeling sensed and known by mother during her spatial/tactile intrusions. The central feature of future D dyads is intrapersonal and interpersonal discordance or conflict in the context of intensely distressed infants. Lowered maternal contingent coordination, and failures of maternal affective correspondence, constitute maternal emotional withdrawal from distressed infants, compromising infant interactive agency and emotional coherence. The level of dysregulation in future D dyads is thus of an entirely different order than that of future C dyads. We proposed that the future D infant represents not being sensed and known by the mother, particularly in states of distress. We proposed that the emerging internal working model of future D infants includes confusion about their own basic emotional organization, about their mothers’ emotional organization, and about their mothers’ response to their distress, setting a trajectory in development which may disturb the fundamental integration of the person. The findings have rich implications for clinical intervention, with remarkable specificity for different kinds of mother and infant distress. The concepts of heightened and lowered self- and interactive contingency, in different modalities, as well as the specific behavioral qualities identified, provide a more differentiated set of concepts to guide clinical intervention. PMID:20390524

Dynamics of multiple-goal pursuit.

PubMed

Louro, Maria J; Pieters, Rik; Zeelenberg, Marcel

2007-08-01

The authors propose and test a model of multiple-goal pursuit that specifies how individuals allocate effort among multiple goals over time. The model predicts that whether individuals decide to step up effort, coast, abandon the current goal, or switch to pursue another goal is determined jointly by the emotions that flow from prior goal progress and the proximity to future goal attainment, and proximally determined by changes in expectancies about goal attainment. Results from a longitudinal diary study and 2 experiments show that positive and negative goal-related emotions can have diametrically opposing effects on goal-directed behavior, depending on the individual's proximity to goal attainment. The findings resolve contrasting predictions about the influence of positive and negative emotions in volitional behavior, critically amend the goal gradient hypothesis, and provide new insights into the dynamics and determinants of multiple-goal pursuit.

Early Detection of Lightning Caused Wildfires and Prediction of Wildfire Behavior through Energy Distribution, Atmospherics, Geophysics, the Sun's Azimuth, and Topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giesige, C.; Nava, E.

2016-12-01

In the midst of a changing climate we have seen extremes in weather events: lightning, wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes. All of these ride on an imbalance of magnetic and electrical distribution about the earth including what goes on from the atmospheric and geophysic levels. There is relevance to the important role the sun plays in developing and feeding of the extreme weather events along with the sun's role helping to create a separation of charges on earth furthering climactic extremes. Focusing attention in North America and on how the sun, atmospheric and geophysic winds come together producing lightning events, there are connections between energy distribution in the environment, lightning caused wildfires, and extreme wildfire behavior. Lightning caused wildfires and extreme fire behavior have become enhanced with the changing climate conditions. Even with strong developments in wildfire science, there remains a lack in full understanding of connections that create a lightning caused wildfire event and lack of monitoring advancements in predicting extreme fire behavior. Several connections have been made in our research allowing us to connect multiple facets of the environment in regards to electric and magnetic influences on wildfires. Among them include: irradiance, winds, pressure systems, humidity, and topology. The connections can be made to develop better detection systems of wildfires, establish with more accuracy areas of highest risk for wildfire and extreme wildfire behavior, and prediction of wildfire behavior. A platform found within the environment can also lead to further understanding and monitoring of other extreme weather events in the future.

A general approach for predicting the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States

PubMed Central

Bommarito, Michael J.; Blackman, Josh

2017-01-01

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications. PMID:28403140

The effectiveness of asking behaviors among 9-11 year-old children in increasing home availability and children's intake of fruit and vegetables: results from the Squire's Quest II self-regulation game intervention.

PubMed

DeSmet, Ann; Liu, Yan; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Baranowski, Tom; Thompson, Debbe

2017-04-21

Home environment has an important influence on children's fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption, but children may in turn also impact their home FV environment, e.g. by asking for FV. The Squire's Quest II serious game intervention aimed to increase asking behaviors to improve home FV availability and children's FV intake. This study's aims were to assess: 1) did asking behaviors at baseline predict home FV availability at baseline (T0) (RQ1); 2) were asking behaviors and home FV availability influenced by the intervention (RQ2); 3) did increases in asking behaviors predict increased home FV availability (RQ3); and 4) did increases in asking behaviors and increases in home FV availability mediate increases in FV intake among children (RQ4)? This is a secondary analysis of a study using a randomized controlled trial, with 4 groups (each n = 100 child-parent dyads). All groups were analyzed together for this paper since groups did not vary on components relevant to our analysis. All children and parents (n = 400 dyads) received a self-regulation serious game intervention and parent material. The intervention ran for three months. Measurements were taken at baseline, immediately after intervention and at 3-month follow-up. Asking behavior and home FV availability were measured using questionnaires; child FV intake was measured using 24-h dietary recalls. ANCOVA methods (research question 1), linear mixed-effect models (research question 2), and Structural Equation Modeling (research questions 3 and 4) were used. Baseline child asking behaviors predicted baseline home FV availability. The intervention increased child asking behaviors and home FV availability. Increases in child asking behaviors, however, did not predict increased home FV availability. Increased child asking behaviors and home FV availability also did not mediate the increases in child FV intake. Children influence their home FV environment through their asking behaviors, which can be enhanced via a serious game intervention. The obtained increases in asking behavior were, however, insufficient to affect home FV availability or intake. Other factors, such as child preferences, sample characteristics, intervention duration and parental direct involvement may play a role and warrant examination in future research. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01004094 . Date registered 10/28/2009.

Actions of glucocorticoids at a seasonal baseline as compared to stress-related levels in the regulation of periodic life processes.

PubMed

Landys, Meta M; Ramenofsky, Marilyn; Wingfield, John C

2006-09-01

For decades, demands associated with the predictable life-history cycle have been considered stressful and have not been distinguished from stress that occurs in association with unpredictable and life-threatening perturbations in the environment. The recent emergence of the concept of allostasis distinguishes behavioral and physiological responses to predictable routines as opposed to unpredictable perturbations, and allows for their comparison within one theoretical framework. Glucocorticosteroids (GCs) have been proposed as important mediators of allostasis, as they allow for rapid readjustment and support of behavior and physiology in response to predictable and unpredictable demands (allostatic load). Much work has already been done in defining GC action at the high concentrations that accompany life-threatening perturbations. However, less is known about the role of GCs in relation to daily and seasonal life processes. In this review, we summarize the known behavioral and physiological effects of GCs relating to the predictable life-history cycle, paying particular attention to feeding behavior, locomotor activity and energy metabolism. Although we utilize a comparative approach, emphasis is placed on birds. In addition, we briefly review effects of GCs at stress-related concentrations to test the hypothesis that different levels of GCs play specific and distinct roles in the regulation of life processes and, thus, participate in the promotion of different physiological states. We also examine the receptor types through which GC action may be mediated and suggest mechanisms whereby different GC concentrations may exert their actions. In conclusion, we argue that biological actions of GCs at "non-stress" seasonal concentrations play a critical role in the adjustment of responses that accompany predictable variability in the environment and demand more careful consideration in future studies.

Predictive Scheduling for Electric Vehicles Considering Uncertainty of Load and User Behaviors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Bin; Huang, Rui; Wang, Yubo

2016-05-02

Un-coordinated Electric Vehicle (EV) charging can create unexpected load in local distribution grid, which may degrade the power quality and system reliability. The uncertainty of EV load, user behaviors and other baseload in distribution grid, is one of challenges that impedes optimal control for EV charging problem. Previous researches did not fully solve this problem due to lack of real-world EV charging data and proper stochastic model to describe these behaviors. In this paper, we propose a new predictive EV scheduling algorithm (PESA) inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC), which includes a dynamic load estimation module and a predictive optimizationmore » module. The user-related EV load and base load are dynamically estimated based on the historical data. At each time interval, the predictive optimization program will be computed for optimal schedules given the estimated parameters. Only the first element from the algorithm outputs will be implemented according to MPC paradigm. Current-multiplexing function in each Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) is considered and accordingly a virtual load is modeled to handle the uncertainties of future EV energy demands. This system is validated by the real-world EV charging data collected on UCLA campus and the experimental results indicate that our proposed model not only reduces load variation up to 40% but also maintains a high level of robustness. Finally, IEC 61850 standard is utilized to standardize the data models involved, which brings significance to more reliable and large-scale implementation.« less

The role of young adult social bonds, substance problems, and sexual risk in pathways between adolescent substance use and midlife risky sexual behavior among urban African Americans.

PubMed

Zebrak, Katarzyna A; Green, Kerry M

2017-11-01

African Americans are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections relative to other racial groups. Although substance use has been linked to risky sexual behavior, the understanding of how these associations develop over the life course remains limited, particularly the role of social bonds. This study uses structural equation modeling to examine pathways from adolescent substance use to young adult sexual risk, substance problems, and social bonds and then to midlife risky sexual behavior among African American men and women, controlling for childhood confounders. Data come from 4 assessments, 1 per developmental period, of a community-based urban African American cohort (N = 1,242) followed prospectively from ages 6 to 42 years. We found that greater adolescent substance use predicts greater young adult substance problems and increased risky sexual behavior, both of which in turn predict greater midlife sexual risk. Although greater adolescent substance use predicts fewer young adult social bonds for both genders, less young adult social bonding is unexpectedly associated with decreased midlife risky sexual behavior among women and not related for men. Substance use interventions among urban African American adolescents may have both immediate and long-term effects on decreasing sexual risk behaviors. Given the association between young adult social bonding and midlife risky sex among females, number of social bonds should not be used as a criterion for determining whom to screen for sexual risk among African American women. Future studies should explore other aspects of social bonding in linking substance use and risky sexual behavior over time. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Measuring service quality and its relationship to future consumer behavior.

PubMed

Headley, D E; Miller, S J

1993-01-01

The authors adapt the SERVQUAL scale for medical care services and examine it for reliability, dimensionality, and validity in a primary care clinic setting. In addition, they explore the possibility of a link between perceived service quality--and its various dimensions--and a patient's future intent to complain, compliment, repeat purchase, and switch providers. Findings from 159 matched-pair responses indicate that the SERVQUAL scale can be adapted reliably to a clinic setting and that the dimensions of reliability, dependability, and empathy are most predictive of a patient's intent to complain, compliment, repeat purchase, and switch providers.

Delay Discounting as an Index of Sustainable Behavior: Devaluation of Future Air Quality and Implications for Public Health.

PubMed

Berry, Meredith S; Nickerson, Norma P; Odum, Amy L

2017-09-01

Poor air quality and resulting annual deaths represent significant public health concerns. Recently, rapid delay discounting (the devaluation of future outcomes) of air quality has been considered a potential barrier for engaging in long term, sustainable behaviors that might help to reduce emissions (e.g., reducing private car use, societal support for clean air initiatives). Delay discounting has been shown to be predictive of real world behavior outside of laboratory settings, and therefore may offer an important framework beyond traditional variables thought to measure sustainable behavior such as importance of an environmental issue, or environmental attitudes/values, although more research is needed in this area. We examined relations between discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary gains and losses. We also examined, relations between discounting and self-reported importance of air quality and respiratory health, and nature relatedness. Results showed rapid delay discounting of all outcomes across the time frames assessed, and significant positive correlations between delay discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary outcomes. Steeper discounting of monetary outcomes relative to air quality and respiratory health outcomes was observed in the context of gains; however, no differences in discounting were observed across losses of monetary, air quality, and respiratory health. Replicating the sign effect, monetary outcomes were discounted more steeply than monetary losses. Importance of air quality, respiratory health and nature relatedness were significantly and positively correlated with one another, but not with degree of delay discounting of any outcome, demonstrating the need for more comprehensive measures that predict pro-environmental behaviors that might benefit individuals and public health over time. These results add to our understanding of decision-making, and demonstrate alarming rates of delay discounting of air quality and health. These results implicate a major public health concern and potential barriers to individual and societal behavior that reduce pollution and emissions for conservation of clean air.

Delay Discounting as an Index of Sustainable Behavior: Devaluation of Future Air Quality and Implications for Public Health

PubMed Central

Berry, Meredith S.; Nickerson, Norma P.; Odum, Amy L.

2017-01-01

Poor air quality and resulting annual deaths represent significant public health concerns. Recently, rapid delay discounting (the devaluation of future outcomes) of air quality has been considered a potential barrier for engaging in long term, sustainable behaviors that might help to reduce emissions (e.g., reducing private car use, societal support for clean air initiatives). Delay discounting has been shown to be predictive of real world behavior outside of laboratory settings, and therefore may offer an important framework beyond traditional variables thought to measure sustainable behavior such as importance of an environmental issue, or environmental attitudes/values, although more research is needed in this area. We examined relations between discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary gains and losses. We also examined, relations between discounting and self-reported importance of air quality and respiratory health, and nature relatedness. Results showed rapid delay discounting of all outcomes across the time frames assessed, and significant positive correlations between delay discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary outcomes. Steeper discounting of monetary outcomes relative to air quality and respiratory health outcomes was observed in the context of gains; however, no differences in discounting were observed across losses of monetary, air quality, and respiratory health. Replicating the sign effect, monetary outcomes were discounted more steeply than monetary losses. Importance of air quality, respiratory health and nature relatedness were significantly and positively correlated with one another, but not with degree of delay discounting of any outcome, demonstrating the need for more comprehensive measures that predict pro-environmental behaviors that might benefit individuals and public health over time. These results add to our understanding of decision-making, and demonstrate alarming rates of delay discounting of air quality and health. These results implicate a major public health concern and potential barriers to individual and societal behavior that reduce pollution and emissions for conservation of clean air. PMID:28862671

Physiological and behavioral indices of emotion dysregulation as predictors of outcome from cognitive behavioral therapy and acceptance and commitment therapy for anxiety.

PubMed

Davies, Carolyn D; Niles, Andrea N; Pittig, Andre; Arch, Joanna J; Craske, Michelle G

2015-03-01

Identifying for whom and under what conditions a treatment is most effective is an essential step toward personalized medicine. The current study examined pre-treatment physiological and behavioral variables as predictors and moderators of outcome in a randomized clinical trial comparing cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) for anxiety disorders. Sixty individuals with a DSM-IV defined principal anxiety disorder completed 12 sessions of either CBT or ACT. Baseline physiological and behavioral variables were measured prior to entering treatment. Self-reported anxiety symptoms were assessed at pre-treatment, post-treatment, and 6- and 12-month follow-up from baseline. Higher pre-treatment heart rate variability was associated with worse outcome across ACT and CBT. ACT outperformed CBT for individuals with high behavioral avoidance. Subjective anxiety levels during laboratory tasks did not predict or moderate treatment outcome. Due to small sample sizes of each disorder, disorder-specific predictors were not tested. Future research should examine these predictors in larger samples and across other outcome variables. Lower heart rate variability was identified as a prognostic indicator of overall outcome, whereas high behavioral avoidance was identified as a prescriptive indicator of superior outcome from ACT versus CBT. Investigation of pre-treatment physiological and behavioral variables as predictors and moderators of outcome may help guide future treatment-matching efforts. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do Sexual Assault Bystander Interventions Change Men's Intentions? Applying the Theory of Normative Social Behavior to Predicting Bystander Outcomes.

PubMed

Mabry, Amanda; Turner, Monique Mitchell

2016-01-01

The high prevalence of sexual assault on college campuses has led to the implementation of health communication programs to prevent sexual assault. A few novel programs focus on primary prevention by targeting social norms related to gender and masculinity among men through bystander intervention. Guided by the theory of normative social behavior, this study sought to examine the relative effect of campaigns communicating positive versus negative injunctive norms and the interaction between exposure to such campaign messages and perceived descriptive norms and relevant cognitive moderators (e.g., outcome expectations, injunctive norms, group identity, ego involvement) among men. A 2 (high/low descriptive norms) × 2 (high/low moderator) × 3 (public service announcement) independent groups quasi-experimental design (N = 332) was used. Results indicated that messages communicating positive injunctive norms were most effective among men who were least likely to engage in bystander intervention. Furthermore, descriptive norms played a significant role in behavioral intentions, such that those with stronger norms were more likely to report intentions to engage in bystander behaviors in the future. Similarly, the moderators of aspiration, injunctive norms, social approval, and ego involvement had a significant positive effect on behavioral intentions. These findings have important implications for future message design strategy and audience segmentation.

Building entity models through observation and learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Richard; Kania, Robert; Fields, MaryAnne; Barnes, Laura

2011-05-01

To support the missions and tasks of mixed robotic/human teams, future robotic systems will need to adapt to the dynamic behavior of both teammates and opponents. One of the basic elements of this adaptation is the ability to exploit both long and short-term temporal data. This adaptation allows robotic systems to predict/anticipate, as well as influence, future behavior for both opponents and teammates and will afford the system the ability to adjust its own behavior in order to optimize its ability to achieve the mission goals. This work is a preliminary step in the effort to develop online entity behavior models through a combination of learning techniques and observations. As knowledge is extracted from the system through sensor and temporal feedback, agents within the multi-agent system attempt to develop and exploit a basic movement model of an opponent. For the purpose of this work, extraction and exploitation is performed through the use of a discretized two-dimensional game. The game consists of a predetermined number of sentries attempting to keep an unknown intruder agent from penetrating their territory. The sentries utilize temporal data coupled with past opponent observations to hypothesize the probable locations of the opponent and thus optimize their guarding locations.

Prognostics using Engineering and Environmental Parameters as Applied to State of Health (SOH) Radionuclide Aerosol Sampler Analyzer (RASA) Real-Time Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchenson, K. D.; Hartley-McBride, S.; Saults, T.; Schmidt, D. P.

2006-05-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is composed in part of radionuclide particulate and gas monitoring systems. Monitoring the operational status of these systems is an important aspect of nuclear weapon test monitoring. Quality data, process control techniques, and predictive models are necessary to detect and predict system component failures. Predicting failures in advance provides time to mitigate these failures, thus minimizing operational downtime. The Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) requires IMS radionuclide systems be operational 95 percent of the time. The United States National Data Center (US NDC) offers contributing components to the IMS. This effort focuses on the initial research and process development using prognostics for monitoring and predicting failures of the RASA two (2) days into the future. The predictions, using time series methods, are input to an expert decision system, called SHADES (State of Health Airflow and Detection Expert System). The results enable personnel to make informed judgments about the health of the RASA system. Data are read from a relational database, processed, and displayed to the user in a GIS as a prototype GUI. This procedure mimics the real time application process that could be implemented as an operational system, This initial proof-of-concept effort developed predictive models focused on RASA components for a single site (USP79). Future work shall include the incorporation of other RASA systems, as well as their environmental conditions that play a significant role in performance. Similarly, SHADES currently accommodates specific component behaviors at this one site. Future work shall also include important environmental variables that play an important part of the prediction algorithms.

Neural precursors of future liking and affective reciprocity

PubMed Central

Zerubavel, Noam; Hoffman, Mark Anthony; Reich, Adam; Ochsner, Kevin N.; Bearman, Peter

2018-01-01

Why do certain group members end up liking each other more than others? How does affective reciprocity arise in human groups? The prediction of interpersonal sentiment has been a long-standing pursuit in the social sciences. We combined fMRI and longitudinal social network data to test whether newly acquainted group members’ reward-related neural responses to images of one another’s faces predict their future interpersonal sentiment, even many months later. Specifically, we analyze associations between relationship-specific valuation activity and relationship-specific future liking. We found that one’s own future (T2) liking of a particular group member is predicted jointly by actor’s initial (T1) neural valuation of partner and by that partner’s initial (T1) neural valuation of actor. These actor and partner effects exhibited equivalent predictive strength and were robust when statistically controlling for each other, both individuals’ initial liking, and other potential drivers of liking. Behavioral findings indicated that liking was initially unreciprocated at T1 yet became strongly reciprocated by T2. The emergence of affective reciprocity was partly explained by the reciprocal pathways linking dyad members’ T1 neural data both to their own and to each other’s T2 liking outcomes. These findings elucidate interpersonal brain mechanisms that define how we ultimately end up liking particular interaction partners, how group members’ initially idiosyncratic sentiments become reciprocated, and more broadly, how dyads evolve. This study advances a flexible framework for researching the neural foundations of interpersonal sentiments and social relations that—conceptually, methodologically, and statistically—emphasizes group members’ neural interdependence. PMID:29632195

Neural precursors of future liking and affective reciprocity.

PubMed

Zerubavel, Noam; Hoffman, Mark Anthony; Reich, Adam; Ochsner, Kevin N; Bearman, Peter

2018-04-24

Why do certain group members end up liking each other more than others? How does affective reciprocity arise in human groups? The prediction of interpersonal sentiment has been a long-standing pursuit in the social sciences. We combined fMRI and longitudinal social network data to test whether newly acquainted group members' reward-related neural responses to images of one another's faces predict their future interpersonal sentiment, even many months later. Specifically, we analyze associations between relationship-specific valuation activity and relationship-specific future liking. We found that one's own future (T2) liking of a particular group member is predicted jointly by actor's initial (T1) neural valuation of partner and by that partner's initial (T1) neural valuation of actor. These actor and partner effects exhibited equivalent predictive strength and were robust when statistically controlling for each other, both individuals' initial liking, and other potential drivers of liking. Behavioral findings indicated that liking was initially unreciprocated at T1 yet became strongly reciprocated by T2. The emergence of affective reciprocity was partly explained by the reciprocal pathways linking dyad members' T1 neural data both to their own and to each other's T2 liking outcomes. These findings elucidate interpersonal brain mechanisms that define how we ultimately end up liking particular interaction partners, how group members' initially idiosyncratic sentiments become reciprocated, and more broadly, how dyads evolve. This study advances a flexible framework for researching the neural foundations of interpersonal sentiments and social relations that-conceptually, methodologically, and statistically-emphasizes group members' neural interdependence. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Future time perspective: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kooij, Dorien T A M; Kanfer, Ruth; Betts, Matt; Rudolph, Cort W

2018-04-23

The ability to foresee, anticipate, and plan for future desired outcomes is crucial for well-being, motivation, and behavior. However, theories in organizational psychology do not incorporate time-related constructs such as Future Time Perspective (FTP), and research on FTP remains disjointed and scattered, with different domains focusing on different aspects of the construct, using different measures, and assessing different antecedents and consequences. In this review and meta-analysis, we aim to clarify the FTP construct, advance its theoretical development, and demonstrate its importance by (a) integrating theory and empirical findings across different domains of research to identify major outcomes and antecedents of FTP, and (b) empirically examining whether and how these variables are moderated by FTP measures and dimensions. Results of a meta-analysis of k = 212 studies reveal significant relationships between FTP and major classes of consequences (i.e., those related to achievement, well-being, health behavior, risk behavior, and retirement planning), and between antecedents and FTP, as well as moderating effects of different FTP measures and dimensions. Highlighting the importance of FTP for organizational psychology theories, our findings demonstrate that FTP predicts these outcomes over and above the big five personality traits and mediates the associations between these personality traits and outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Effects of episodic future thinking on discounting: Personalized age-progressed pictures improve risky long-term health decisions.

PubMed

Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Jarmolowicz, David P

2016-03-01

Many everyday choices are associated with both delayed and probabilistic outcomes. The temporal attention hypothesis suggests that individuals' decision making can be improved by focusing attention on temporally distal events and implies that environmental manipulations that bring temporally distal outcomes into focus may alter an individual's degree of discounting. One such manipulation, episodic future thinking, has shown to lower discount rates; however, several questions remain about the applicability of episodic future thinking to domains other than delay discounting. The present experiments examine the effects of a modified episodic-future-thinking procedure in which participants viewed age-progressed computer-generated images of themselves and answered questions related to their future, on probability discounting in the context of both a delayed health gain and loss. Results indicate that modified episodic future thinking effectively altered individuals' degree of discounting in the predicted directions and demonstrate the applicability of episodic future thinking to decision making of socially significant outcomes. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

The predictive validity of common risk assessment tools in men with intellectual disabilities and problematic sexual behaviors.

PubMed

Fedoroff, J Paul; Richards, Deborah; Ranger, Rebekah; Curry, Susan

2016-10-01

This CIHR-funded study examined whether certain current risk assessment tools were effective in appraising risk of recidivism in a sample of sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID). Fifty men with ID who had engaged in problematic sexual behavior (PSB) were followed for an average of 2.5 years. Recidivism was defined and measured as any illegal or problematic behavior, as well as any problematic but not necessarily illegal behavior. At the beginning of the study, each participant was rated on two risk assessment tools: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). During each month of follow-up, participants were also rated on the Short-Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS), an assessment tool intended to measure the risk of future problematic behaviors. Data was analyzed using t-tests, Cohen's d and area under the curve (AUC) to test predictive validity of the assessment tools. Using the AUC, results showed that the VRAG was predictive of sexual (AUC=0.74), sexual and/or violent (AUC=0.71) and of any criminally chargeable event (AUC=0.69). The SORAG was only significantly predictive of sexual events (AUC=0.70) and the SDRS was predictive of violent events (AUC=0.71). The t-test and Cohen's d analyses, which are less robust to deviations from the assumptions of normal and continuous distribution than AUC, did not yield significant results in each category, and therefore, while the results of this study suggest that the VRAG and the SORAG may be effective tools in measuring the short term risk of sexual recidivism; and the VRAG and SDRS may be effective tools in appraising long term risk of sexual and/or violent recidivism in this population, it should be used with caution. Regardless of the assessment tool used, risk assessments should take into account the differences between sex offenders with and without ID to ensure effective measurement. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Aggressive temperament predicts ethanol self-administration in late adolescent male and female rhesus macaques

PubMed Central

McClintick, Megan N.; Grant, Kathleen A.

2017-01-01

Rationale Anxiety and aggression are associated with ethanol self-administration, but these behaviors can serve as either risk factors for or consequences of heavy drinking in rodents and humans. Baseline levels of aggressive-like and anxious-like behavior in non-human primates have not yet been characterized in relation to future or prior ethanol intake. Objective To test the association between temperament at baseline with future ethanol self-administration in late adolescent male (n=21) and female (n=11) rhesus monkeys. Methods Shortly after entering the laboratory and before exposure to ethanol, the Human Intruder Test (HIT) and the Novel Object Test (NOT) were used to determine baseline anxious-like and aggressive-like behavior in age-matched male and female rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta). The monkeys were induced to drink ethanol 4% (w/v) using a schedule-induced polydipsia procedure, followed by “open-access” ethanol self-administration in which the monkeys were allowed a choice of water or 4% ethanol (w/v) for 22 hours/day (h/d) for 52 weeks. Results Aggressive monkeys self-administered more ethanol and attained higher Blood Ethanol Concentrations (BECs). No significant differences in ethanol intakes or BECs were found between anxious and non-anxious monkeys or between behaviorally inhibited and non-inhibited monkeys. Baseline aggressive behavior positively correlated with ethanol intake and intoxication. Conclusions Baseline reactive aggression was associated with higher future ethanol intake and intoxication. While significant sex differences in HIT reactivity were observed, the relationship between aggression and ethanol drinking was observed across sex and is not sex-specific. PMID:27627910

We perceive a mind in a robot when we help it

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Takaaki; Karasawa, Kaori

2017-01-01

People sometimes perceive a mind in inorganic entities like robots. Psychological research has shown that mind perception correlates with moral judgments and that immoral behaviors (i.e., intentional harm) facilitate mind perception toward otherwise mindless victims. We conducted a vignette experiment (N = 129; Mage = 21.8 ± 6.0 years) concerning human-robot interactions and extended previous research’s results in two ways. First, mind perception toward the robot was facilitated when it received a benevolent behavior, although only when participants took the perspective of an actor. Second, imagining a benevolent interaction led to more positive attitudes toward the robot, and this effect was mediated by mind perception. These results help predict what people’s reactions in future human-robot interactions would be like, and have implications for how to design future social rules about the treatment of robots. PMID:28727735

Identification and impact of discoverers in online social systems

PubMed Central

Medo, Matúš; Mariani, Manuel S.; Zeng, An; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2016-01-01

Understanding the behavior of users in online systems is of essential importance for sociology, system design, e-commerce, and beyond. Most existing models assume that individuals in diverse systems, ranging from social networks to e-commerce platforms, tend to what is already popular. We propose a statistical time-aware framework to identify the users who differ from the usual behavior by being repeatedly and persistently among the first to collect the items that later become hugely popular. Since these users effectively discover future hits, we refer them as discoverers. We use the proposed framework to demonstrate that discoverers are present in a wide range of real systems. Once identified, discoverers can be used to predict the future success of new items. We finally introduce a simple network model which reproduces the discovery patterns observed in the real data. Our results open the door to quantitative study of detailed temporal patterns in social systems. PMID:27687588

Examining the Moderating Role of Family Cohesion on the Relationship Between Witnessed Community Violence and Delinquency in a National Sample of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Barr, Simone C.; Hanson, Rochelle; Begle, Angela M.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Saunders, Benjamin; Resnick, Heidi; Amstadter, Ananda

2014-01-01

Witnessed community violence has been linked to a number of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescents. Guided by Cicchetti and Lynch’s (1993) ecological-transactional model, this study aimed to examine the impact that family-level factors had on negative outcomes associated with witnessed community violence. Using a nationally representative sample, we explored the moderational role of family cohesion in the relationship between witnessing community violence and delinquent behavior while taking demographic variables into account. Results from the investigation suggested that low levels of family cohesion were predictive of delinquency after controlling for race, gender, past delinquency, and direct trauma. In addition, the findings suggested that family cohesion moderated the impact of witnessed community violence on future delinquent behavior. Future directions for research and implications for practice were also discussed. PMID:21920873

Identification and impact of discoverers in online social systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medo, Matúš; Mariani, Manuel S.; Zeng, An; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2016-09-01

Understanding the behavior of users in online systems is of essential importance for sociology, system design, e-commerce, and beyond. Most existing models assume that individuals in diverse systems, ranging from social networks to e-commerce platforms, tend to what is already popular. We propose a statistical time-aware framework to identify the users who differ from the usual behavior by being repeatedly and persistently among the first to collect the items that later become hugely popular. Since these users effectively discover future hits, we refer them as discoverers. We use the proposed framework to demonstrate that discoverers are present in a wide range of real systems. Once identified, discoverers can be used to predict the future success of new items. We finally introduce a simple network model which reproduces the discovery patterns observed in the real data. Our results open the door to quantitative study of detailed temporal patterns in social systems.

Identification and impact of discoverers in online social systems.

PubMed

Medo, Matúš; Mariani, Manuel S; Zeng, An; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2016-09-30

Understanding the behavior of users in online systems is of essential importance for sociology, system design, e-commerce, and beyond. Most existing models assume that individuals in diverse systems, ranging from social networks to e-commerce platforms, tend to what is already popular. We propose a statistical time-aware framework to identify the users who differ from the usual behavior by being repeatedly and persistently among the first to collect the items that later become hugely popular. Since these users effectively discover future hits, we refer them as discoverers. We use the proposed framework to demonstrate that discoverers are present in a wide range of real systems. Once identified, discoverers can be used to predict the future success of new items. We finally introduce a simple network model which reproduces the discovery patterns observed in the real data. Our results open the door to quantitative study of detailed temporal patterns in social systems.

Limitations on scientific prediction and how they could affect repository licensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Konynenburg, R.A.

The best possibility for gaining an understanding of the likely future behavior of a high level nuclear waste disposal system is to use the scientific method. However, the scientific approach has inherent limitations when it comes to making long-term predictions with confidence. This paper examines some of these limiting factors as well as the criteria for admissibility of scientific evidence in the legal arena, and concludes that the prospects are doubtful for successful licensing of a potential repository under the regulations that are now being reconsidered. Suggestions am made for remedying this situation.

Predicting Health Resilience in Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes: A Test of the Resilience Model Framework

PubMed Central

Huang, Bin; Pendley, Jennifer Shroff; Delamater, Alan; Dolan, Lawrence; Reeves, Grafton; Drotar, Dennis

2015-01-01

Objectives This research examined whether individual and family-level factors during the transition from late childhood to early adolescence protected individuals from an increased risk of poor glycemic control across time, which is a predictor of future diabetes-related complications (i.e., health resilience). Methods This longitudinal, multisite study included 239 patients with type 1 diabetes and their caregivers. Glycemic control was based on hemoglobin A1c. Individual and family-level factors included: demographic variables, youth behavioral regulation, adherence (frequency of blood glucose monitoring), diabetes self-management, level of parental support for diabetes autonomy, level of youth mastery and responsibility for diabetes management, and diabetes-related family conflict. Results Longitudinal mixed-effects logistic regression indicated that testing blood glucose more frequently, better self-management, and less diabetes-related family conflict were indicators of health resilience. Conclusions Multiple individual and family-level factors predicted risk for future health complications. Future research should develop interventions targeting specific individual and family-level factors to sustain glycemic control within recommended targets, which reduces the risk of developing future health complications during the transition to adolescence and adulthood. PMID:26152400

Unit mechanisms of fission gas release: Current understanding and future needs

DOE PAGES

Tonks, Michael; Andersson, David; Devanathan, Ram; ...

2018-03-01

Gaseous fission product transport and release has a large impact on fuel performance, degrading fuel and gap properties. While gaseous fission product behavior has been investigated with bulk reactor experiments and simplified analytical models, recent improvements in experimental and modeling approaches at the atomistic and mesoscales are beginning to reveal new understanding of the unit mechanisms that define fission product behavior. Here, existing research on the basic mechanisms of fission gas release during normal reactor operation are summarized and critical areas where work is needed are identified. Here, this basic understanding of the fission gas behavior mechanisms has the potentialmore » to revolutionize our ability to predict fission product behavior and to design fuels with improved performance. In addition, this work can serve as a model on how a coupled experimental and modeling approach can be applied to understand the unit mechanisms behind other critical behaviors in reactor materials.« less

Unit mechanisms of fission gas release: Current understanding and future needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonks, Michael; Andersson, David; Devanathan, Ram

Gaseous fission product transport and release has a large impact on fuel performance, degrading fuel and gap properties. While gaseous fission product behavior has been investigated with bulk reactor experiments and simplified analytical models, recent improvements in experimental and modeling approaches at the atomistic and mesoscales are beginning to reveal new understanding of the unit mechanisms that define fission product behavior. Here, existing research on the basic mechanisms of fission gas release during normal reactor operation are summarized and critical areas where work is needed are identified. Here, this basic understanding of the fission gas behavior mechanisms has the potentialmore » to revolutionize our ability to predict fission product behavior and to design fuels with improved performance. In addition, this work can serve as a model on how a coupled experimental and modeling approach can be applied to understand the unit mechanisms behind other critical behaviors in reactor materials.« less

Unit mechanisms of fission gas release: Current understanding and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonks, Michael; Andersson, David; Devanathan, Ram; Dubourg, Roland; El-Azab, Anter; Freyss, Michel; Iglesias, Fernando; Kulacsy, Katalin; Pastore, Giovanni; Phillpot, Simon R.; Welland, Michael

2018-06-01

Gaseous fission product transport and release has a large impact on fuel performance, degrading fuel and gap properties. While gaseous fission product behavior has been investigated with bulk reactor experiments and simplified analytical models, recent improvements in experimental and modeling approaches at the atomistic and mesoscales are beginning to reveal new understanding of the unit mechanisms that define fission product behavior. Here, existing research on the basic mechanisms of fission gas release during normal reactor operation are summarized and critical areas where work is needed are identified. This basic understanding of the fission gas behavior mechanisms has the potential to revolutionize our ability to predict fission product behavior and to design fuels with improved performance. In addition, this work can serve as a model on how a coupled experimental and modeling approach can be applied to understand the unit mechanisms behind other critical behaviors in reactor materials.

Competitive testing of health behavior theories: how do benefits, barriers, subjective norm, and intention influence mammography behavior?

PubMed Central

Murphy, Caitlin C.; Vernon, Sally W.; Diamond, Pamela M.; Tiro, Jasmin A.

2013-01-01

Background Competitive hypothesis testing may explain differences in predictive power across multiple health behavior theories. Purpose We tested competing hypotheses of the Health Belief Model (HBM) and Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) to quantify pathways linking subjective norm, benefits, barriers, intention, and mammography behavior. Methods We analyzed longitudinal surveys of women veterans randomized to the control group of a mammography intervention trial (n=704). We compared direct, partial mediation, and full mediation models with Satorra-Bentler χ2 difference testing. Results Barriers had a direct and indirect negative effect on mammography behavior; intention only partially mediated barriers. Benefits had little to no effect on behavior and intention; however, it was negatively correlated with barriers. Subjective norm directly affected behavior and indirectly affected intention through barriers. Conclusions Our results provide empiric support for different assertions of HBM and TRA. Future interventions should test whether building subjective norm and reducing negative attitudes increases regular mammography. PMID:23868613

Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers and Reserve Variables as Predictors of Future “Non-Cognitive” Outcomes of Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Ingber, Adam P.; Hassenstab, Jason; Fagan, Anne M.; Benzinger, Tammie L.S.; Grant, Elizabeth A.; Holtzman, David M.; Morris, John C.; Roe, Catherine M.

2016-01-01

Background The influence of reserve variables and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) biomarkers on cognitive test performance has been fairly well-characterized. However, less is known about the influence of these factors on “non-cognitive” outcomes, including functional abilities and mood. Objective We examined whether cognitive and brain reserve variables mediate how AD biomarker levels in cognitively normal persons predict future changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior. Methods Non-cognitive outcomes were examined in 328 individuals 50 years and older enrolled in ongoing studies of aging and dementia at the Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center (ADRC). All participants were cognitively normal at baseline (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] 0), completed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and structural neuroimaging studies within one year of baseline, and were followed for an average of 4.6 annual visits. Linear mixed effects models explored how cognitive reserve and brain reserve variables mediate the relationships between AD biomarker levels and changes in function, mood, and neuropsychiatric behavior in cognitively normal participants. Results Education levels did not have a significant effect on predicting non-cognitive decline. However, participants with smaller brain volumes exhibited the worst outcomes on measures of mood, functional abilities, and behavioral disturbance. This effect was most pronounced in individuals who also had abnormal CSF biomarkers. Conclusions The findings suggest that brain reserve plays a stronger, or earlier, role than cognitive reserve in protecting against non-cognitive impairment in AD. PMID:27104893

Caregiving Styles: A Cognitive and Behavioral Typology Associated With Dementia Family Caregiving

PubMed Central

Corcoran, Mary A.

2011-01-01

Purpose: An increasing number of elderly individuals are diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease and related disorders (ADRD), many of whom receive daily caregiving from spouse or adult child. Caregiving is a “cultural activity,” and as such it is strongly influenced by sociocultural beliefs about caregiving and how it should be enacted. Understanding this thinking–action process has important implications for future research and service. Reasoned action theory provides empirical evidence that attitudes and beliefs, as they are influenced by the social environment, predict intentions to act. In turn, behavioral intentions can reliably predict behaviors. This grounded theory study describes a typology of caregiving styles relevant to family members of an individual with ADRD, where caregiving style is defined as a culturally based pattern in thinking and action. The goal of this study was to characterize the relationship between caregiver intentions and care strategies. Methods: Study participants included 97 individuals residing in the Washington, DC, area, who provide daily care for a family member with ADRD. Narrative data were collected from each caregiver during three 1-hr interview sessions. A subset of 30 caregiver–care recipient (CR) dyads was videotaped during typical interactions. Results: Four caregiving styles were identified (facilitating, balancing, advocating, and directing), which differ primarily in the intended focus of care and preferred interactions with the CR. Implications: The results provide a foundation for future studies of the relationships between sociocultural context, caregiving styles and strategies, and ensuing outcomes for caregiver–CR dyads. PMID:21335422

Caregiving styles: a cognitive and behavioral typology associated with dementia family caregiving.

PubMed

Corcoran, Mary A

2011-08-01

An increasing number of elderly individuals are diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease and related disorders (ADRD), many of whom receive daily caregiving from spouse or adult child. Caregiving is a "cultural activity," and as such it is strongly influenced by sociocultural beliefs about caregiving and how it should be enacted. Understanding this thinking-action process has important implications for future research and service. Reasoned action theory provides empirical evidence that attitudes and beliefs, as they are influenced by the social environment, predict intentions to act. In turn, behavioral intentions can reliably predict behaviors. This grounded theory study describes a typology of caregiving styles relevant to family members of an individual with ADRD, where caregiving style is defined as a culturally based pattern in thinking and action. The goal of this study was to characterize the relationship between caregiver intentions and care strategies. Study participants included 97 individuals residing in the Washington, DC, area, who provide daily care for a family member with ADRD. Narrative data were collected from each caregiver during three 1-hr interview sessions. A subset of 30 caregiver-care recipient (CR) dyads was videotaped during typical interactions. Four caregiving styles were identified (facilitating, balancing, advocating, and directing), which differ primarily in the intended focus of care and preferred interactions with the CR. The results provide a foundation for future studies of the relationships between sociocultural context, caregiving styles and strategies, and ensuing outcomes for caregiver-CR dyads.

Approaches for scalable modeling and emulation of cyber systems : LDRD final report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayo, Jackson R.; Minnich, Ronald G.; Armstrong, Robert C.

2009-09-01

The goal of this research was to combine theoretical and computational approaches to better understand the potential emergent behaviors of large-scale cyber systems, such as networks of {approx} 10{sup 6} computers. The scale and sophistication of modern computer software, hardware, and deployed networked systems have significantly exceeded the computational research community's ability to understand, model, and predict current and future behaviors. This predictive understanding, however, is critical to the development of new approaches for proactively designing new systems or enhancing existing systems with robustness to current and future cyber threats, including distributed malware such as botnets. We have developed preliminarymore » theoretical and modeling capabilities that can ultimately answer questions such as: How would we reboot the Internet if it were taken down? Can we change network protocols to make them more secure without disrupting existing Internet connectivity and traffic flow? We have begun to address these issues by developing new capabilities for understanding and modeling Internet systems at scale. Specifically, we have addressed the need for scalable network simulation by carrying out emulations of a network with {approx} 10{sup 6} virtualized operating system instances on a high-performance computing cluster - a 'virtual Internet'. We have also explored mappings between previously studied emergent behaviors of complex systems and their potential cyber counterparts. Our results provide foundational capabilities for further research toward understanding the effects of complexity in cyber systems, to allow anticipating and thwarting hackers.« less

Contribution of family violence to the intergenerational transmission of externalizing behavior.

PubMed

Ehrensaft, Miriam K; Cohen, Patricia

2012-08-01

Research finds that early antisocial behavior is a risk for later intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration and victimization, and that children's exposure to their parents' IPV is a risk for subsequent behavior problems. This study tests whether intimate violence (IPV) between partners contributes independently to the intergenerational transmission of antisocial behavior, using the Children in the Community Study, a representative sample (N = 821) followed for over 25 years in 6 assessments. The present study includes a subsample of parents (N = 678) and their offspring (N = 396). We test the role of three mechanisms by which IPV may influence child antisocial behavior-parental psychopathology, parenting practices, and child self-regulation. Results suggest that IPV independently increased the risk for offspring externalizing problems, net of the effects of parental history of antisocial behavior and family violence. IPV also increased the risk for parental post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and alcohol use disorder 2 years later, but not for major depressive disorder. Alcohol use disorder independently increased the risk for offspring externalizing behavior, but IPV continued to predict offspring externalizing net of parental alcohol use. Parenting, particularly low satisfaction with the child, was significantly associated with both IPV and externalizing behavior, but did not mediate the effects of IPV on externalizing. IPV predicted higher levels of emotional expressivity, aggression and hostile reactivity, and depressive mood in offspring. Implications for future research and prevention are discussed.

Food parenting practices and child dietary behavior. Prospective relations and the moderating role of general parenting.

PubMed

Sleddens, Ester F C; Kremers, Stef P J; Stafleu, Annette; Dagnelie, Pieter C; De Vries, Nanne K; Thijs, Carel

2014-08-01

Research on parenting practices has focused on individual behaviors while largely failing to consider the context of their use, i.e., general parenting. We examined the extent to which food parenting practices predict children's dietary behavior (classified as unhealthy: snacking, sugar-sweetened beverage; and healthy: water and fruit intake). Furthermore, we tested the moderating role of general parenting on this relationship. Within the KOALA Birth Cohort Study, in the Netherlands, questionnaire data were collected at 6 and 8 years (N = 1654). Correlations were computed to assess the association between food parenting practices and general parenting (i.e., nurturance, behavioral control, structure, coercive control, and overprotection). Linear regression models were fitted to assess whether food parenting practices predict dietary behavior. Instrumental and emotional feeding, and pressure to eat were found to have associations with undesirable child dietary behavior (increased unhealthy intake/decreased healthy intake), whereas associations were in the desirable direction for covert control, encouragement and restriction. Moderation analyses were performed by evaluating interactions with general parenting. The associations of encouragement and covert control with desirable child dietary behaviors were found to be stronger for children who were reared in a positive parenting context. Future research should assess the influence of contextual parenting factors moderating the relationships between food parenting and child dietary behavior as the basis for the development of more effective family-based interventions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coercive Family Process and Early-Onset Conduct Problems From Age 2 to School Entry

PubMed Central

Smith, Justin D.; Dishion, Thomas J.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Wilson, Melvin N.; Winter, Charlotte C.; Patterson, Gerald R.

2013-01-01

The emergence and persistence of conduct problems during early childhood is a robust predictor of behavior problems in school and future maladaptation. In this study we examined the reciprocal influences between observed coercive interactions between children and caregivers, oppositional and aggressive behavior, and growth in parent report of early childhood (ages 2–5) and school-age conduct problems (age 7.5 and 8.5). Participants were drawn from the Early Steps multisite randomized prevention trial that includes an ethnically diverse sample of male and female children and their families (N = 731). A parallel process growth model combining latent trajectory and cross-lagged approaches revealed the amplifying effect of observed coercive caregiver–child interactions on children's noncompliance, whereas child oppositional and aggressive behaviors did not consistently predict increased coercion. The slope and initial levels of child oppositional and aggressive behaviors and the stability of caregiver–child coercion were predictive of teacher-reported oppositional behavior at school age. Families assigned to the Family Check-Up condition had significantly steeper declines in child oppositional and aggressive behavior and moderate reductions in oppositional behavior in school and in coercion at age 3. Results were not moderated by child gender, race/ethnicity, or assignment to the intervention condition. The implications of these findings are discussed with respect to understanding the early development of conduct problems and to designing optimal strategies for reducing problem behavior in early childhood with families most in need. PMID:24690305

Influence of Permissive Parenting on Youth Farm Risk Behaviors.

PubMed

Jinnah, Hamida A; Stoneman, Zolinda

2016-01-01

Farm youth continue to experience high rates of injuries and premature deaths as a result of agricultural activities. Increased parental permissiveness is positively associated with many different types of high-risk behaviors in youth. This study explored whether permissive parenting (fathering and mothering) predicts youth unsafe behaviors on the farm. Data were analyzed for 67 youth and their parents. Families were recruited from a statewide farm publication, through youth organizations (i.e., FFA [Future Farmers of America]), local newspapers, farmer referrals, and through the Cooperative Extension Network. Hierarchical multiple regression was completed. Results revealed that fathers and mothers who practiced lax-inconsistent disciplining were more likely to have youth who indulged in unsafe farm behaviors. Key hypotheses confirmed that permissive parenting (lax-inconsistent disciplining) by parents continued to predict youth unsafe farm behaviors, even after youth age, youth gender, youth personality factor of risk-taking, and father's unsafe behaviors (a measure associated with modeling) were all taken into account. A key implication is that parents may play an important role in influencing youth farm safety behaviors. Parents (especially fathers) need to devote time to discuss farm safety with their youth. Farm safety interventions need to involve parents as well as address and respect the culture and values of families. Interventions need to focus not only on safe farm practices, but also promote positive parenting practices, including increased parent-youth communication about safety, consistent disciplining strategies, and increased monitoring and modeling of safe farm behaviors by parents.

Coercive family process and early-onset conduct problems from age 2 to school entry.

PubMed

Smith, Justin D; Dishion, Thomas J; Shaw, Daniel S; Wilson, Melvin N; Winter, Charlotte C; Patterson, Gerald R

2014-11-01

The emergence and persistence of conduct problems (CPs) during early childhood is a robust predictor of behavior problems in school and of future maladaptation. In this study we examined the reciprocal influences between observed coercive interactions between children and caregivers, oppositional and aggressive behavior, and growth in parent report of early childhood (ages 2-5) and school-age CPs (ages 7.5 and 8.5). Participants were drawn from the Early Steps multisite randomized prevention trial that includes an ethnically diverse sample of male and female children and their families (N = 731). A parallel-process growth model combining latent trajectory and cross-lagged approaches revealed the amplifying effect of observed coercive caregiver-child interactions on children's noncompliance, whereas child oppositional and aggressive behaviors did not consistently predict increased coercion. The slope and initial levels of child oppositional and aggressive behaviors and the stability of caregiver-child coercion were predictive of teacher-reported oppositional behavior at school age. Families assigned to the Family Check-Up condition had significantly steeper declines in child oppositional and aggressive behavior and moderate reductions in oppositional behavior in school and in coercion at age 3. Results were not moderated by child gender, race/ethnicity, or assignment to the intervention condition. The implications of these findings are discussed with respect to understanding the early development of CPs and to designing optimal strategies for reducing problem behavior in early childhood with families most in need.

Sending Nudes: Sex, Self-Rated Mate Value, and Trait Machiavellianism Predict Sending Unsolicited Explicit Images

PubMed Central

March, Evita; Wagstaff, Danielle L.

2017-01-01

Modern dating platforms have given rise to new dating and sexual behaviors. In the current study, we examine predictors of sending unsolicited explicit images, a particularly underexplored online sexual behavior. The aim of the current study was to explore the utility of dark personality traits (i.e., narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism) and self-rated mate value in predicting attitudes toward and behavior of sending unsolicited explicit images. Two hundred and forty participants (72% female; Mage = 25.96, SD = 9.79) completed an online questionnaire which included a measure of self-rated mate value, a measure of dark personality traits, and questions regarding sending unsolicited explicit images (operationalized as the explicit image scale). Men, compared to women, were found to have higher explicit image scale scores, and both self-rated mate value and trait Machiavellianism were positive predictors of explicit image scale scores. Interestingly, there were no significant interactions between sex and these variables. Further, Machiavellianism mediated all relationships between other dark traits and explicit image scale scores, indicating this behavior is best explained by the personality trait associated with behavioral strategies. In sum, these results provide support for the premise that sending unsolicited explicit images may be a tactic of a short-term mating strategy; however, future research should further explore this claim. PMID:29326632

Enjoyment and Behavioral Intention Predict Organized Youth Sport Participation and Dropout.

PubMed

Gardner, Lauren A; Magee, Christopher A; Vella, Stewart A

2017-11-01

Dropout from organized youth sport has significant adverse health implications. Enjoyment and behavioral intentions have consistently been linked with participation and dropout; however, few studies have investigated these links using a prospective design. This study explored whether enjoyment and intentions to continue predicted dropout behavior at 1-year follow-up. Questionnaires were completed by 327 regular sport participants (mean age = 13.01 y at baseline). After 1 year, 247 individuals (75.5%) continued participating in their main sport and 26 individuals (8%) dropped out. A hierarchical logistic regression model estimated the probability of dropout. In step 1, the following covariates were included: age, sex, competition level, perceived competence, parental support, coach-athlete relationship, friendship quality, and peer acceptance. In step 2, enjoyment and intentions to continue were included. Step 1 indicated that age, parental support, coach-athlete relationship quality, and peer acceptance were significantly associated with dropout. Step 2 explained further variance in dropout, with both enjoyment and intentions inversely associated with dropout. Peer acceptance was the only covariate to remain significantly associated with dropout in step 2. Findings support the use of enjoyment and behavioral intentions as indicators of sport participation/dropout behavior and may aid the development of interventions aimed at preventing future dropout.

Oxidative stress and neurobehavioral problems in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients undergoing chemotherapy.

PubMed

Stenzel, Stephanie L; Krull, Kevin R; Hockenberry, Marilyn; Jain, Neelam; Kaemingk, Kris; Miketova, Petra; Moore, Ida M

2010-03-01

Neurobehavioral problems after chemotherapy treatment for pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have been a recent focus of investigation. This study extended previous research that suggested oxidative stress as a potential mechanism for chemotherapy-induced central nervous system injury by examining early markers of oxidative stress in relation to subsequent neurobehavioral problems. Oxidized and unoxidized components of phosphatidylcholine (PC) were measured in the cerebrospinal fluid of 87 children with ALL at diagnosis, induction, and consolidation. Behavioral assessments were conducted postconsolidation and at the end of chemotherapy. Results revealed a significant association between physiologic reactivity (high vs. low PC changes from diagnosis) and behavioral outcomes (high vs. low pathology). Elevated oxidized PC fraction change was predictive of increased problems with aggression at the end of therapy as well as postconsolidation adaptability. Furthermore, symptoms of hyperactivity systematically changed over time in relation to both unoxidized PC and oxidized PC fraction reactivity. These findings suggest that symptoms of behavioral problems occur early in the course of chemotherapy and that increases in the cerebrospinal fluid PC markers of oxidative stress during induction and consolidation may help to predict certain future behavioral problems.

Sexual Hookups and Adverse Health Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study of First-Year College Women

PubMed Central

Fielder, Robyn L.; Walsh, Jennifer L.; Carey, Kate B.; Carey, Michael P.

2013-01-01

“Hookups” are sexual encounters between partners who are not in a romantic relationship and do not expect commitment. We examined the associations between sexual hookup behavior and depression, sexual victimization (SV), and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among first-year college women. In this longitudinal study, 483 women completed 13 monthly surveys assessing oral and vaginal sex with hookup and romantic partners, depression, SV, and self-reported STIs. Participants also provided biological specimens that were tested for STIs. During the study, 50% of participants reported hookup sex, and 62% reported romantic sex. Covariates included previous levels of the outcome, alcohol use, impulsivity, sensation-seeking, and romantic sex. Autoregressive cross-lagged models showed that controlling for covariates, hookup behavior during college was correlated with depression, Bs = .21, ps < .05, and SV, Bs = .19, ps < .05. Additionally, pre-college hookup behavior predicted SV early in college, B = .62, p < .05. Hookup sex, OR 1.32, p < .05, and romantic sex, OR 1.19, p < .05, were associated with STIs. Overall, sexual hookup behavior among college women was positively correlated with experiencing depression, SV, and STIs, but the nature of these associations remains unclear, and hooking up did not predict future depression. PMID:24350600

Experimental Investigation of the Mechanical Behavior of a Filled Elastomer at Pressures Below 10 to the -6th Power Torr. Ph.D. Thesis - Va. Polytechnic Inst.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, G. L.

1972-01-01

The mechanical behavior of a filled elastomer was studied with emphasis on understanding the vacuum-material interactions occurring, and to develop analytical techniques for predicting the vacuum behavior. The test results indicate that two separate mechanisms are involved in the observed property changes: the first controls the time response to applied stress; the second determines the initial internal state of the materials as the result of stresses. It is concluded that the mechanical property changes are attributable to changes in the relaxation processes occurring in the material. These changes are brought about by outgassing of water. Recommendations for future investigations are included.

Atomic switch networks as complex adaptive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnhorst, Kelsey S.; Carbajal, Juan P.; Aguilera, Renato C.; Sandouk, Eric J.; Aono, Masakazu; Stieg, Adam Z.; Gimzewski, James K.

2018-03-01

Complexity is an increasingly crucial aspect of societal, environmental and biological phenomena. Using a dense unorganized network of synthetic synapses it is shown that a complex adaptive system can be physically created on a microchip built especially for complex problems. These neuro-inspired atomic switch networks (ASNs) are a dynamic system with inherent and distributed memory, recurrent pathways, and up to a billion interacting elements. We demonstrate key parameters describing self-organized behavior such as non-linearity, power law dynamics, and multistate switching regimes. Device dynamics are then investigated using a feedback loop which provides control over current and voltage power-law behavior. Wide ranging prospective applications include understanding and eventually predicting future events that display complex emergent behavior in the critical regime.

Neurophysiological Basis of Sleep’s Function on Memory and Cognition

PubMed Central

Spencer, Rebecca M. C.

2013-01-01

A wealth of recent studies support a function of sleep on memory and cognitive processing. At a physiological level, sleep supports memory in a number of ways including neural replay and enhanced plasticity in the context of reduced ongoing input. This paper presents behavioral evidence for sleep’s role in selective remembering and forgetting of declarative memories, in generalization of these memories, and in motor skill consolidation. Recent physiological data reviewed suggests how these behavioral changes might be supported by sleep. Importantly, in reviewing these findings, an integrated view of how distinct sleep stages uniquely contribute to memory processing emerges. This model will be useful in developing future behavioral and physiological studies to test predictions that emerge. PMID:24600607

RELATIONSHIP OF STD-RELATED SHAME AND STIGMA TO FEMALE ADOLESCENTS’ CONDOM-PROTECTED INTERCOURSE

PubMed Central

Sales, Jessica M.; DiClemente, Ralph J.; Rose, Eve S.; Wingood, Gina M.; Klein, Jonathan D.; Woods, Elizabeth R.

2007-01-01

Purpose Shame and stigma associated with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are barriers to adolescents seeking prompt and appropriate diagnosis and treatment. However, little is known about how these constructs are related to STD-protective behaviors, such as condom-protected intercourse. Thus, we prospectively examined the relationship between shame and stigma and condom-use in adolescent females. Methods 192 African American females age 17.4 ± 1.7 years (range 15-21) were recruited for the study from local teen oriented health clinics. At baseline, participants completed demographic and psychosocial measures (including STD-related shame and stigma), and chart or laboratory confirmed history of STDs was obtained. At six months follow-up, rate of condom-protected intercourse in past 14 days prior to follow-up was assessed. Participants’ baseline shame and stigma scores, prior history of STDs, and select demographic and theoretically important psychosocial variables were entered into a hierarchical linear regression model to predict condom-protected intercourse in the 14 days prior to the 6 month follow-up assessment. Results After controlling for variables identified in bivariate correlations, STD-related shame was significantly predictive of condom-protected intercourse in the 14 days prior to follow-up, with higher shame predicting higher rates of condom-protected intercourse. Conclusions Future prevention efforts attempting to reduce adolescents’ risks for STDs and HIV may benefit from addressing STD-related shame and stigma in addition to explicitly linking health-promoting behavior changes (condom use) to a decreased likelihood of future infection with STDs. PMID:17531767

Ups and downs of economics and econophysics — Facebook forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gajic, Nenad; Budinski-Petkovic, Ljuba

2013-01-01

What is econophysics and its relationship with economics? What is the state of economics after the global economic crisis, and is there a future for the paradigm of market equilibrium, with imaginary perfect competition and rational agents? Can the next paradigm of economics adopt important assumptions derived from econophysics models: that markets are chaotic systems, striving to extremes as bubbles and crashes show, with psychologically motivated, statistically predictable individual behaviors? Is the future of econophysics, as predicted here, to disappear and become a part of economics? A good test of the current state of econophysics and its methods is the valuation of Facebook immediately after the initial public offering - this forecast indicates that Facebook is highly overvalued, and its IPO valuation of 104 billion dollars is mostly the new financial bubble based on the expectations of unlimited growth, although it’s easy to prove that Facebook is close to the upper limit of its users.

Ambulatory Assessment

PubMed Central

Trull, Timothy J.; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich

2014-01-01

Ambulatory assessment (AA) covers a wide range of assessment methods to study people in their natural environment, including self-report, observational, and biological/physiological/behavioral. AA methods minimize retrospective biases while gathering ecologically valid data from patients’ everyday life in real time or near real time. Here, we report on the major characteristics of AA, and we provide examples of applications of AA in clinical psychology (a) to investigate mechanisms and dynamics of symptoms, (b) to predict the future recurrence or onset of symptoms, (c) to monitor treatment effects, (d) to predict treatment success, (e) to prevent relapse, and (f) as interventions. In addition, we present and discuss the most pressing and compelling future AA applications: technological developments (the smartphone), improved ecological validity of laboratory results by combined lab-field studies, and investigating gene-environment interactions. We conclude with a discussion of acceptability, compliance, privacy, and ethical issues. PMID:23157450

Prospective risk factors for alcohol misuse in late adolescence.

PubMed

Ellickson, S L; Tucker, J S; Klein, D J; McGuigan, K A

2001-11-01

This longitudinal study investigated Grade-7 and Grade-10 risk factors for alcohol misuse at Grade 12. Alcohol misuse was conceptualized as problem-related drinking (e.g., missing school), high-risk drinking (e.g., drunk driving) and high consumption. Prospective analyses using two-part models predicted any alcohol misuse and the amount of misuse (given that some has occurred) for over 4,200 (52% male) participants in the RAND Adolescent Panel Study. Predictor variables were demographics, substance use and exposure, prodrug attitudes, rebelliousness and deviant behavior, self-esteem, family structure and relations, and grades. Grade-7 predictors of alcohol misuse 5 years later included early drinking onset, parental drinking, future intentions to drink, cigarette offers, difficulty resisting pressures to smoke, being white, being male, having an older sibling, deviant behavior and poor grades. By Grade 10, predictors of alcohol misuse 2 years later included drinking and marijuana use by self and peers, future intentions to drink, difficulty resisting pressures to drink and use marijuana, being male, coming from a disrupted family and deviant behavior. Somewhat different predictors were identified for problem-related, high-risk and high consumption drinking, emphasizing the importance of investigating multiple dimensions of misuse. The high social acceptability of alcohol use makes prevention difficult. Curbing alcohol misuse may be a more attainable goal than preventing any use. These results indicate that predictors of misuse in late adolescence can be identified by Grade 7 and are generally visible and modifiable. Prevention efforts should begin by early adolescence, address both familial and peer influences to drink and use other substances, and take into account problems that predict alcohol misuse (e.g., poor academic performance and early deviant behavior).

Adaptive reproduction schedule as a cause of worker policing in social hymenoptera: a dynamic game analysis.

PubMed

Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Tsuji, Kazuki

2009-06-01

Evolutionary theories predict conflicts over sex allocation, male parentage, and reproductive allocation in hymenopteran societies. However, no theory to date has considered the evolution when a colony faces these three conflicts simultaneously. We tackled this issue by developing a dynamic game model, focusing especially on worker policing. Whereas a Nash equilibrium predicts male parentage patterns that are basically the same as those of relatedness-based worker-policing theory (queen multiple mating impedes worker reproduction), we also show the potential for worker policing under queen single mating. Worker policing will depend on the stage of colony growth that is caused by interaction with reproductive allocation conflict or a trade-off between current and future reproduction. Male production at an early stage greatly hinders the growth of the work force and undermines future inclusive fitness of colony members, leading to worker policing at the ergonomic stage. This new mechanism can explain much broader ranges of existing worker-policing behavior than that predicted from relatedness. Predictions differ in many respects from those of models assuming operation of only one or two of the three conflicts, suggesting the importance of interactions among conflicts.

Predicting Improvement After a Bystander Program for the Prevention of Sexual and Dating Violence.

PubMed

Hines, Denise A; Palm Reed, Kathleen M

2015-07-01

Although evidence suggests that bystander prevention programs are promising interventions for decreasing sexual violence and dating violence on college campuses, there have been no studies to date evaluating moderators of bystander program effectiveness. The current study evaluates whether different demographic characteristics, attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors at pretest predict change over a 6-month follow-up for students who participated in a bystander prevention program. Participants in the three assessments (pretest, posttest, 6-month follow-up) included 296 college students who were mandated to attend a bystander program during their first year orientation. Analyses showed that with few exceptions, the bystander program worked best for students who were most at risk given their pretest demographics and levels of attitudes condoning dating violence and sexual violence, bystander efficacy, and bystander behaviors. Results are discussed in terms of suggestions for future research. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Dynamic fMRI networks predict success in a behavioral weight loss program among older adults.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Fatemeh; Rejeski, W Jack; Zhu, Yingying; Wu, Guorong; Simpson, Sean L; Burdette, Jonathan H; Laurienti, Paul J

2018-06-01

More than one-third of adults in the United States are obese, with a higher prevalence among older adults. Obesity among older adults is a major cause of physical dysfunction, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart diseases. Many people who engage in lifestyle weight loss interventions fail to reach targeted goals for weight loss, and most will regain what was lost within 1-2 years following cessation of treatment. This variability in treatment efficacy suggests that there are important phenotypes predictive of success with intentional weight loss that could lead to tailored treatment regimen, an idea that is consistent with the concept of precision-based medicine. Although the identification of biochemical and metabolic phenotypes are one potential direction of research, neurobiological measures may prove useful as substantial behavioral change is necessary to achieve success in a lifestyle intervention. In the present study, we use dynamic brain networks from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data to prospectively identify individuals most likely to succeed in a behavioral weight loss intervention. Brain imaging was performed in overweight or obese older adults (age: 65-79 years) who participated in an 18-month lifestyle weight loss intervention. Machine learning and functional brain networks were combined to produce multivariate prediction models. The prediction accuracy exceeded 95%, suggesting that there exists a consistent pattern of connectivity which correctly predicts success with weight loss at the individual level. Connectivity patterns that contributed to the prediction consisted of complex multivariate network components that substantially overlapped with known brain networks that are associated with behavior emergence, self-regulation, body awareness, and the sensory features of food. Future work on independent datasets and diverse populations is needed to corroborate our findings. Additionally, we believe that efforts can begin to examine whether these models have clinical utility in tailoring treatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Superior Disembedding Performance in Childhood Predicts Adolescent Severity of Repetitive Behaviors: A Seven Years Follow-Up of Individuals With Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Eussen, Mart L J M; Van Gool, Arthur R; Louwerse, Anneke; Verhulst, Frank C; Greaves-Lord, Kirstin

2016-02-01

Previous research suggests that individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a detail-focused cognitive style. The aim of the current longitudinal study was to investigate whether this detail-focused cognitive style in childhood predicted a higher symptom severity of repetitive and restrictive behaviors and interests (RRBI) in adolescence. The Childhood Embedded Figures Test (CEFT) and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) were administered in 87 children with ASD at the age of 6-12 years old (T1), and the ADOS was readministered 7 years later when the participants were 12-19 years old (T2). Linear regression analyses were performed to investigate whether accuracy and reaction time in the complex versus simple CEFT condition and performance in the complex condition predicted T2 ADOS RRBI calibrated severity scores (CSS), while taking into consideration relevant covariates and ADOS RRBI CSS at T1. The CEFT performance (accuracy in the complex condition divided by the time needed) significantly predicted higher ADOS RRBI CSS at T2 (ΔR(2)  = 15%). This finding further supports the detail-focused cognitive style in individuals with ASD, and shows that it is also predictive of future RRBI symptoms over time. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Drought Prediction Site Specific and Regional up to Three Years in Advance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhler, G.; O'Brien, D. P.

2002-12-01

Dynamic Predictables has developed proprietary software that analyzes and predicts future climatic behavior based on past data. The programs employ both a regional thermodynamic model together with a unique predictive algorithm to achieve a high degree of prediction accuracy up to 36 months. The thermodynamic model was developed initially to explain the results of a study on global circulation models done at SUNY-Stony Brook by S. Hameed, R.G. Currie, and H. LaGrone (Int. Jour. Climatology, 15, pp.852-871, 1995). The authors pointed out that on a time scale of 2-70 months the spectrum of sea level pressure is dominated by the harmonics and subharmonics of the seasonal cycle and their combination tones. These oscillations are fundamental to an understanding of climatic variations on a sub-regional to continental basis. The oscillatory nature of these variations allows them to be used as broad based climate predictors. In addition, they can be subtracted from the data to yield residuals. The residuals are then analyzed to determine components that are predictable. The program then combines both the thermodynamic model results (the primary predictive model) with those from the residual data (the secondary model) to yield an estimate of the future behavior of the climatic variable. Spatial resolution is site specific or aggregated regional based upon appropriate length (45 years or more monthly data) and reasonable quality weather observation records. Most climate analysis has been based on monthly time-step data, but time scales on the order of days can be used. Oregon Climate Division 1 (Coastal) precipitation provides an example relating DynaPred's method to nature's observed elements in the early 2000s. The prediction's leading dynamic factors are the strong seasonal in the primary model combined with high secondary model contributions from planet Earth's Chandler Wobble (near 15 months) and what has been called the Quasi-Triennial Oscillation (QTO, near 36 months) in equatorial regions. Examples of regional aggregate and site-specific predictions previously made blind forward and publicly available (AASC Annual Meetings 1998-2002) will be shown. Certain climate dynamics features relevant to extrema prediction and specifically drought prediction will then be discussed. Time steps presented will be monthly. Climate variables examined are mean temperature and accumulated precipitation. NINO3 SST, interior continental and marine/continental transition area examples will be shown. http://www.dynamicpredictables.com

Future orientation, school contexts, and problem behaviors: a multilevel study.

PubMed

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T

2013-01-01

The association between future orientation and problem behaviors has received extensive empirical attention; however, previous work has not considered school contextual influences on this link. Using a sample of N = 9,163 9th to 12th graders (51.0 % females) from N = 85 high schools of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the present study examined the independent and interactive effects of adolescent future orientation and school contexts (school size, school location, school SES, school future orientation climate) on problem behaviors. Results provided evidence that adolescent future orientation was associated independently and negatively with problem behaviors. In addition, adolescents from large-size schools reported higher levels of problem behaviors than their age mates from small-size schools, controlling for individual-level covariates. Furthermore, an interaction effect between adolescent future orientation and school future orientation climate was found, suggesting influences of school future orientation climate on the link between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors as well as variations in effects of school future orientation climate across different levels of adolescent future orientation. Specifically, the negative association between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors was stronger at schools with a more positive climate of future orientation, whereas school future orientation climate had a significant and unexpectedly positive relationship with problem behaviors for adolescents with low levels of future orientation. Findings implicate the importance of comparing how the future orientation-problem behaviors link varies across different ecological contexts and the need to understand influences of school climate on problem behaviors in light of differences in psychological processes among adolescents.

Longitudinal and reciprocal relations between delay discounting and crime

PubMed Central

Lee, Christine A.; Derefinko, Karen J.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.; DeWall, C. Nathan

2017-01-01

Theorists argue that self-control failure is the underlying cause of criminal behavior, with previous research linking poor self-control to delinquency and drug use. The path from self-control to crime is well-established, but less is known about whether criminal behavior contributes to self-control deficits over time. We investigated bi-directional relations between self-control assessed via a delay discounting task and self-reported crime over a three-year period. During their first, second (73.38% retention rate), and third (63.12% retention rate) years of college, 526 undergraduates completed a delay discounting task and reported on their criminal behavior. In order to maximize variability, participants with conduct problems were overrecruited, comprising 23.1% of the final sample. As expected, more discounting of hypothetical monetary rewards significantly predicted future property crime across a one and two-year period, even when controlling for initial levels of both. This study also demonstrated evidence of a bi-directional relationship; violent crime predicted higher rates of delay discounting one year later. These results suggest that bi-directional relations exist between self-control and types of crime. PMID:28970645

Electrophobic interaction induced impurity clustering in metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Hong-Bo; Wang, Jin-Long; Jiang, W.

2016-10-01

We introduce the concept of electrophobic interaction, analogous to hydrophobic interaction, for describing the behavior of impurity atoms in a metal, a 'solvent of electrons'. We demonstrate that there exists a form of electrophobic interaction between impurities with closed electron shell structure, which governs their dissolution behavior in a metal. Using He, Be and Ar as examples, we predict by first-principles calculations that the electrophobic interaction drives He, Be or Ar to form a close-packed cluster with a clustering energy that follows a universal power-law scaling with the number of atoms (N) dissolved in a free electron gas, as wellmore » as W or Al lattice, as Ec is proportional to (N2/3-N). This new concept unifies the explanation for a series of experimental observations of close-packed inert-gas bubble formation in metals, and significantly advances our fundamental understanding and capacity to predict the solute behavior of impurities in metals, a useful contribution to be considered in future material design of metals for nuclear, metallurgical, and energy applications.« less

Effective behavioral modeling and prediction even when few exemplars are available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goan, Terrance; Kartha, Neelakantan; Kaneshiro, Ryan

2006-05-01

While great progress has been made in the lowest levels of data fusion, practical advances in behavior modeling and prediction remain elusive. The most critical limitation of existing approaches is their inability to support the required knowledge modeling and continuing refinement under realistic constraints (e.g., few historic exemplars, the lack of knowledge engineering support, and the need for rapid system deployment). This paper reports on our ongoing efforts to develop Propheteer, a system which will address these shortcomings through two primary techniques. First, with Propheteer we abandon the typical consensus-driven modeling approaches that involve infrequent group decision making sessions in favor of an approach that solicits asynchronous knowledge contributions (in the form of alternative future scenarios and indicators) without burdening the user with endless certainty or probability estimates. Second, we enable knowledge contributions by personnel beyond the typical core decision making group, thereby casting light on blind spots, mitigating human biases, and helping maintain the currency of the developed behavior models. We conclude with a discussion of the many lessons learned in the development of our prototype Propheteer system.

Predicting Future Capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Air Forces of China

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

are important—offensive realism and defensive realism. The author will first discuss the origins of realism in international relations theory ... neoclassical realism. First, the international system is one of anarchy. There is no structural model to regulate international behavior among independent...of Relative Gains in International Politics,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 3 (Jun., 2002): 394. 6 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Predicts Future Weight Change in the Millennium Cohort Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

weight changes in individuals with PTSD: (1) sleep deprivation caused by PTSD, as shorter sleep duration has been linked to higher obesity prevalence...eating and dieting behaviors (12), and (4) medications prescribed for PTSD that may affect body weight (13). Since obesity increases the risk of...traumatic stress disorder (exposure) and subsequent 3 year weight change (outcome). Original Article Obesity EPIDEMIOLOGY/GENETICS www.obesityjournal.org

Mentalizing about emotion and its relationship to empathy.

PubMed

Hooker, Christine I; Verosky, Sara C; Germine, Laura T; Knight, Robert T; D'Esposito, Mark

2008-09-01

Mentalizing involves the ability to predict someone else's behavior based on their belief state. More advanced mentalizing skills involve integrating knowledge about beliefs with knowledge about the emotional impact of those beliefs. Recent research indicates that advanced mentalizing skills may be related to the capacity to empathize with others. However, it is not clear what aspect of mentalizing is most related to empathy. In this study, we used a novel, advanced mentalizing task to identify neural mechanisms involved in predicting a future emotional response based on a belief state. Subjects viewed social scenes in which one character had a False Belief and one character had a True Belief. In the primary condition, subjects were asked to predict what emotion the False Belief Character would feel if they had a full understanding about the situation. We found that neural regions related to both mentalizing and emotion were involved when predicting a future emotional response, including the superior temporal sulcus, medial prefrontal cortex, temporal poles, somatosensory related cortices (SRC), inferior frontal gyrus and thalamus. In addition, greater neural activity in primarily emotion-related regions, including right SRC and bilateral thalamus, when predicting emotional response was significantly correlated with more self-reported empathy. The findings suggest that predicting emotional response involves generating and using internal affective representations and that greater use of these affective representations when trying to understand the emotional experience of others is related to more empathy.

We'll Meet Again: Revealing Distributional and Temporal Patterns of Social Contact

PubMed Central

Pachur, Thorsten; Schooler, Lael J.; Stevens, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

What are the dynamics and regularities underlying social contact, and how can contact with the people in one's social network be predicted? In order to characterize distributional and temporal patterns underlying contact probability, we asked 40 participants to keep a diary of their social contacts for 100 consecutive days. Using a memory framework previously used to study environmental regularities, we predicted that the probability of future contact would follow in systematic ways from the frequency, recency, and spacing of previous contact. The distribution of contact probability across the members of a person's social network was highly skewed, following an exponential function. As predicted, it emerged that future contact scaled linearly with frequency of past contact, proportionally to a power function with recency of past contact, and differentially according to the spacing of past contact. These relations emerged across different contact media and irrespective of whether the participant initiated or received contact. We discuss how the identification of these regularities might inspire more realistic analyses of behavior in social networks (e.g., attitude formation, cooperation). PMID:24475073

Computational intelligence models to predict porosity of tablets using minimum features

PubMed Central

Khalid, Mohammad Hassan; Kazemi, Pezhman; Perez-Gandarillas, Lucia; Michrafy, Abderrahim; Szlęk, Jakub; Jachowicz, Renata; Mendyk, Aleksander

2017-01-01

The effects of different formulations and manufacturing process conditions on the physical properties of a solid dosage form are of importance to the pharmaceutical industry. It is vital to have in-depth understanding of the material properties and governing parameters of its processes in response to different formulations. Understanding the mentioned aspects will allow tighter control of the process, leading to implementation of quality-by-design (QbD) practices. Computational intelligence (CI) offers an opportunity to create empirical models that can be used to describe the system and predict future outcomes in silico. CI models can help explore the behavior of input parameters, unlocking deeper understanding of the system. This research endeavor presents CI models to predict the porosity of tablets created by roll-compacted binary mixtures, which were milled and compacted under systematically varying conditions. CI models were created using tree-based methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and symbolic regression trained on an experimental data set and screened using root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores. The experimental data were composed of proportion of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) (in percentage), granule size fraction (in micrometers), and die compaction force (in kilonewtons) as inputs and porosity as an output. The resulting models show impressive generalization ability, with ANNs (normalized root-mean-square error [NRMSE] =1%) and symbolic regression (NRMSE =4%) as the best-performing methods, also exhibiting reliable predictive behavior when presented with a challenging external validation data set (best achieved symbolic regression: NRMSE =3%). Symbolic regression demonstrates the transition from the black box modeling paradigm to more transparent predictive models. Predictive performance and feature selection behavior of CI models hints at the most important variables within this factor space. PMID:28138223

Computational intelligence models to predict porosity of tablets using minimum features.

PubMed

Khalid, Mohammad Hassan; Kazemi, Pezhman; Perez-Gandarillas, Lucia; Michrafy, Abderrahim; Szlęk, Jakub; Jachowicz, Renata; Mendyk, Aleksander

2017-01-01

The effects of different formulations and manufacturing process conditions on the physical properties of a solid dosage form are of importance to the pharmaceutical industry. It is vital to have in-depth understanding of the material properties and governing parameters of its processes in response to different formulations. Understanding the mentioned aspects will allow tighter control of the process, leading to implementation of quality-by-design (QbD) practices. Computational intelligence (CI) offers an opportunity to create empirical models that can be used to describe the system and predict future outcomes in silico. CI models can help explore the behavior of input parameters, unlocking deeper understanding of the system. This research endeavor presents CI models to predict the porosity of tablets created by roll-compacted binary mixtures, which were milled and compacted under systematically varying conditions. CI models were created using tree-based methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and symbolic regression trained on an experimental data set and screened using root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores. The experimental data were composed of proportion of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) (in percentage), granule size fraction (in micrometers), and die compaction force (in kilonewtons) as inputs and porosity as an output. The resulting models show impressive generalization ability, with ANNs (normalized root-mean-square error [NRMSE] =1%) and symbolic regression (NRMSE =4%) as the best-performing methods, also exhibiting reliable predictive behavior when presented with a challenging external validation data set (best achieved symbolic regression: NRMSE =3%). Symbolic regression demonstrates the transition from the black box modeling paradigm to more transparent predictive models. Predictive performance and feature selection behavior of CI models hints at the most important variables within this factor space.

Children's biological responsivity to acute stress predicts concurrent cognitive performance.

PubMed

Roos, Leslie E; Beauchamp, Kathryn G; Giuliano, Ryan; Zalewski, Maureen; Kim, Hyoun K; Fisher, Philip A

2018-04-10

Although prior research has characterized stress system reactivity (i.e. hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, HPAA; autonomic nervous system, ANS) in children, it has yet to examine the extent to which biological reactivity predicts concurrent goal-directed behavior. Here, we employed a stressor paradigm that allowed concurrent assessment of both stress system reactivity and performance on a speeded-response task to investigate the links between biological reactivity and cognitive function under stress. We further investigated gender as a moderator given previous research suggesting that the ANS may be particularly predictive of behavior in males due to gender differences in socialization. In a sociodemographically diverse sample of young children (N = 58, M age = 5.38 yrs; 44% male), individual differences in sociodemographic covariates (age, household income), HPAA (i.e. cortisol), and ANS (i.e. respiratory sinus arrhythmia, RSA, indexing the parasympathetic branch; pre-ejection period, PEP, indexing the sympathetic branch) function were assessed as predictors of cognitive performance under stress. We hypothesized that higher income, older age, and greater cortisol reactivity would be associated with better performance overall, and flexible ANS responsivity (i.e. RSA withdrawal, PEP shortening) would be predictive of performance for males. Overall, females performed better than males. Two-group SEM analyses suggest that, for males, greater RSA withdrawal to the stressor was associated with better performance, while for females, older age, higher income, and greater cortisol reactivity were associated with better performance. Results highlight the relevance of stress system reactivity to cognitive performance under stress. Future research is needed to further elucidate for whom and in what situations biological reactivity predicts goal-directed behavior.

Striving for the moral self: the effects of recalling past moral actions on future moral behavior.

PubMed

Jordan, Jennifer; Mullen, Elizabeth; Murnighan, J Keith

2011-05-01

People's desires to see themselves as moral actors can contribute to their striving for and achievement of a sense of self-completeness. The authors use self-completion theory to predict (and show) that recalling one's own (im)moral behavior leads to compensatory rather than consistent moral action as a way of completing the moral self. In three studies, people who recalled their immoral behavior reported greater participation in moral activities (Study 1), reported stronger prosocial intentions (Study 2), and showed less cheating (Study 3) than people who recalled their moral behavior. These compensatory effects were related to the moral magnitude of the recalled event, but they did not emerge when people recalled their own positive or negative nonmoral behavior (Study 2) or others' (im)moral behavior (Study 3). Thus, the authors extend self-completion theory to the moral domain and use it to integrate the research on moral cleansing (remunerative moral strivings) and moral licensing (relaxed moral strivings).

Activity-based identity experiences and their relations to problem behavior and psychological well-being in adolescence.

PubMed

Palen, Lori-Ann; Coatsworth, J Douglas

2007-10-01

The current study explored the associations between activity-based identity experiences and youth outcomes. Participants were 107 high school students and one parent or guardian of each from three communities in a Northeastern state. Youth completed a measure of activity-based identity experiences (Personally Expressive Activities Questionnaire (PEAQ) [Waterman, A. S. (1990). Personal expressiveness: Philosophical and psychological foundations. Journal of Mind and Behavior, 11, 47-74]), as well as measures of psychological well-being, substance use, and delinquency. Parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist [Achenbach, T. M. (1991). Manual for the Child Behavior Checklist/4-18 and 1991 profile. Burlington, VT: University of Vermont Department of Psychiatry]. Together, three identity experiences derived from the PEAQ, personal expressiveness, goal-directed behavior, and flow, were significant predictors of adolescent-reported delinquency and well-being. Goal-directed behavior also uniquely predicted adolescent-reported delinquency and well-being. Suggestions for future research and potential implications for intervention are discussed.

The influence of impulsiveness on binge eating and problem gambling: A prospective study of gender differences in Canadian adults.

PubMed

Farstad, Sarah M; von Ranson, Kristin M; Hodgins, David C; El-Guebaly, Nady; Casey, David M; Schopflocher, Don P

2015-09-01

This study investigated the degree to which facets of impulsiveness predicted future binge eating and problem gambling, 2 theorized forms of behavioral addiction. Participants were 596 women and 406 men from 4 age cohorts randomly recruited from a Canadian province. Participants completed self-report measures of 3 facets of impulsiveness (negative urgency, sensation seeking, lack of persistence), binge-eating frequency, and problem-gambling symptoms. Impulsiveness was assessed at baseline, and assessments of binge eating and problem gambling were followed up after 3 years. Weighted data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial and Poisson regression models. We found evidence of transdiagnostic and disorder-specific predictors of binge eating and problem gambling. Negative urgency emerged as a common predictor of binge eating and problem gambling among women and men. There were disorder-specific personality traits identified among men only: High lack-of-persistence scores predicted binge eating and high sensation-seeking scores predicted problem gambling. Among women, younger age predicted binge eating and older age predicted problem gambling. Thus, there are gender differences in facets of impulsiveness that longitudinally predict binge eating and problem gambling, suggesting that treatments for these behaviors should consider gender-specific personality and demographic traits in addition to the common personality trait of negative urgency. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Determinants of Lifestyle Behavior in Iranian Adults with Prediabetes: Applying the Theory of Planned Behavior.

PubMed

Rahmati-Najarkolaei, Fatemeh; Pakpour, Amir H; Saffari, Mohsen; Hosseini, Mahboobeh Sadat; Hajizadeh, Fereshteh; Chen, Hui; Yekaninejad, Mir Saeed

2017-04-01

Prediabetic condition can lead to development of type 2 diabetes, especially in individuals who do not adhere to a healthy lifestyle. The aim of the present study was to investigate the socio-cognitive factors using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) that may be associated with the choice of lifestyle in prediabetic patients. A prospective study with one-month follow up was designed to collect data from 350 individuals with prediabetic conditions. A questionnaire was used to collect the information, including demographic variables, exercise behavior, food consumption, as well as the constructs of the TPB (attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and behavioral intention) regarding physical activity and dietary choice. The correlations between TPB variables and the dependent variables (dietary choice, physical activity) were assessed using Spearman correlation and multiple regression models. In total, 303 people participated. The mean age of the participants was 53.0 (SD 11.5) years and 42% were males. Significant correlations were found between all TPB constructs and both dependent variables (healthy eating and exercise behaviors) both at baseline and after one month (P < 0.01). The predictive validity of the TPB over time was proved for both dependent variables where past and future behaviors were significantly correlated with the constructs. Nearly 87% of the variance in exercise behavior and 72% of the variance in healthy eating behavior were explainable by TPB constructs. The TPB may be a useful model to predict behaviors of physical activity and dietary choice among prediabetic people. Therefore, it may be used to monitor lifestyle modification to prevent development of diabetes among people with prediabetic conditions.

Measuring preschool learning engagement in the laboratory.

PubMed

Halliday, Simone E; Calkins, Susan D; Leerkes, Esther M

2018-03-01

Learning engagement is a critical factor for academic achievement and successful school transitioning. However, current methods of assessing learning engagement in young children are limited to teacher report or classroom observation, which may limit the types of research questions one could assess about this construct. The current study investigated the validity of a novel assessment designed to measure behavioral learning engagement among young children in a standardized laboratory setting and examined how learning engagement in the laboratory relates to future classroom adjustment. Preschool-aged children (N = 278) participated in a learning-based Tangrams task and Story sequencing task and were observed based on seven behavioral indicators of engagement. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the construct validity for a behavioral engagement factor composed of six of the original behavioral indicators: attention to instructions, on-task behavior, enthusiasm/energy, persistence, monitoring progress/strategy use, and negative affect. Concurrent validity for this behavioral engagement factor was established through its associations with parent-reported mastery motivation and pre-academic skills in math and literacy measured in the laboratory, and predictive validity was demonstrated through its associations with teacher-reported classroom learning behaviors and performance in math and reading in kindergarten. These associations were found when behavioral engagement was observed during both the nonverbal task and the verbal story sequencing tasks and persisted even after controlling for child minority status, gender, and maternal education. Learning engagement in preschool appears to be successfully measurable in a laboratory setting. This finding has implications for future research on the mechanisms that support successful academic development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition

PubMed Central

Szpunar, Karl K.; Spreng, R. Nathan; Schacter, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

Prospection—the ability to represent what might happen in the future—is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior. PMID:25416592

The past, present, and future of cognitive architectures.

PubMed

Taatgen, Niels; Anderson, John R

2010-10-01

Cognitive architectures are theories of cognition that try to capture the essential representations and mechanisms that underlie cognition. Research in cognitive architectures has gradually moved from a focus on the functional capabilities of architectures to the ability to model the details of human behavior, and, more recently, brain activity. Although there are many different architectures, they share many identical or similar mechanisms, permitting possible future convergence. In judging the quality of a particular cognitive model, it is pertinent to not just judge its fit to the experimental data but also its simplicity and ability to make predictions. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Racing with friends: Resistance to peer influence, gist and specific risk beliefs.

PubMed

Mirman, Jessica H; Curry, Allison E

2016-11-01

Studies assessing young drivers' risk appraisals with their driving behavior have shown both positive and inverse associations, possibly due to differences in survey items that cue gist appraisals about risk (i.e., beliefs that are focused on meaning) or specific appraisals (i.e., beliefs that are focused on discrete instances). Prior research has indicated that gist-based reasoning is protective against engaging in risk behavior and that use of gist appraisals increases with development. Additionally, although much of adolescents' risk-taking occurs in groups, almost no research examines how adolescents' resistance to peer influence may relate to their specific and gist beliefs about socially-bound risk behavior, as well as their future engagement in such behavior. One hundred and thirty-two adolescent drivers participated in a prospective self-report study on racing behavior. Surveys measured specific and gist risk appraisals, resistance to peer influence, and racing behavior at two time points three months apart. We hypothesized that stronger specific appraisals would be associated with greater likelihood of racing, and stronger gist appraisals would be protective. Further, we hypothesized that resistance to peer influence would be positively associated with gist appraisals and negatively associated with specific risk appraisals; and would also be inversely associate with racing. Specific risk appraisals and gist appraisals were predictive of racing behavior as hypothesized. Resistance to peer influence did not predict racing, but was associated with each type of risk appraisal as predicted at Time 1, although the association between specific risk and resistance to peer influence was non-significant at the second time point. Gist beliefs and the ability to resist influence from friends might be indicative of an underlying strength of one's own beliefs about the self as a non-risk taking person who stands up for his or her beliefs, which is protective against engaging in risky behavior, such as racing with friends. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumers young and old: segmenting the target markets for direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

PubMed

Ball, Jennifer Gerard; Manika, Danae; Stout, Patricia

2011-10-01

Direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising (DTCA) studies have typically focused on older adults or a general population of adults. However, college students are viable targets for DTCA and are receiving more research attention in this area. In this article, we compare college students with two adult age segments. Our findings indicate all age groups had relatively high awareness of DTCA and similar attitudes and behavioral responses to the ads. However, there were significant differences in media use and health characteristics as well as the factors predicting DTCA ad trust, attitudes, and behavioral intentions. Implications and future research suggestions are discussed.

Change in airflow among patients with asthma discussing relationship problems with their partners.

PubMed

Schmaling, Karen B; Afari, Niloofar; Hops, Hyman; Barnhart, Scott; Buchwald, Dedra

2009-09-01

This study examined the covariation of negative emotions with airflow among 48 persons with asthma and their partners as they discussed relationship problems. Measures included self-reported questionnaires, airflow and behavior coded from videotaped discussions. Significantly increased self-reported hostility and statistically but not clinically significant declines in airflow were found post- versus pre-discussion. Self-reported responses to asthma symptoms of more anger and less loneliness predicted lower post-discussion airflow after accounting for pre-discussion airflow. The use of effort-independent measures of airflow and autonomic nervous system monitoring may inform future research regarding the physiological mechanisms through which mood and behavior affect airflow.

Psychopathy & Aggression: When Paralimbic Dysfunction Leads to Violence

PubMed Central

Anderson, Nathaniel E.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2015-01-01

Psychopaths can be alarmingly violent, both in the frequency with which they engage in violence and the gratuitous extent of their violent acts. Indeed, one principal utility of the clinical construct of psychopathy is in predicting future violent behavior in criminal offenders. Aggression is a complex construct that intersects psychopathy at many levels. This chapter provides a review of psychopathy as a clinical construct including the most prominent cognitive and neurobiological models which serve to account for its pathophysiology. We then describe how the brain abnormalities implicated in psychopathy may lead to diverse behavioral outcomes, which can include aggression in its many forms. PMID:24306955

Cognitive biases to healthy and unhealthy food words predict change in BMI.

PubMed

Calitri, Raff; Pothos, Emmanuel M; Tapper, Katy; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Rogers, Peter J

2010-12-01

The current study explored the predictive value of cognitive biases to food cues (assessed by emotional Stroop and dot probe tasks) on weight change over a 1-year period. This was a longitudinal study with undergraduate students (N = 102) living in shared student accommodation. After controlling for the effects of variables associated with weight (e.g., physical activity, stress, restrained eating, external eating, and emotional eating), no effects of cognitive bias were found with the dot probe. However, for the emotional Stroop, cognitive bias to unhealthy foods predicted an increase in BMI whereas cognitive bias to healthy foods was associated with a decrease in BMI. Results parallel findings in substance abuse research; cognitive biases appear to predict behavior change. Accordingly, future research should consider strategies for attentional retraining, encouraging individuals to reorient attention away from unhealthy eating cues.

The brain, self and society: a social-neuroscience model of predictive processing.

PubMed

Kelly, Michael P; Kriznik, Natasha M; Kinmonth, Ann Louise; Fletcher, Paul C

2018-05-10

This paper presents a hypothesis about how social interactions shape and influence predictive processing in the brain. The paper integrates concepts from neuroscience and sociology where a gulf presently exists between the ways that each describe the same phenomenon - how the social world is engaged with by thinking humans. We combine the concepts of predictive processing models (also called predictive coding models in the neuroscience literature) with ideal types, typifications and social practice - concepts from the sociological literature. This generates a unified hypothetical framework integrating the social world and hypothesised brain processes. The hypothesis combines aspects of neuroscience and psychology with social theory to show how social behaviors may be "mapped" onto brain processes. It outlines a conceptual framework that connects the two disciplines and that may enable creative dialogue and potential future research.

Driver Gaze Behavior Is Different in Normal Curve Driving and when Looking at the Tangent Point

PubMed Central

Itkonen, Teemu; Pekkanen, Jami; Lappi, Otto

2015-01-01

Several steering models in the visual science literature attempt to capture the visual strategies in curve driving. Some of them are based on steering points on the future path (FP), others on tangent points (TP). It is, however, challenging to differentiate between the models’ predictions in real–world contexts. Analysis of optokinetic nystagmus (OKN) parameters is one useful measure, as the different strategies predict measurably different OKN patterns. Here, we directly test this prediction by asking drivers to either a) “drive as they normally would” or b) to “look at the TP”. The design of the experiment is similar to a previous study by Kandil et al., but uses more sophisticated methods of eye–movement analysis. We find that the eye-movement patterns in the “normal” condition are indeed markedly different from the “tp” condition, and consistent with drivers looking at waypoints on the future path. This is the case for both overall fixation distribution, as well as the more informative fixation–by–fixation analysis of OKN. We find that the horizontal gaze speed during OKN corresponds well to the quantitative prediction of the future path models. The results also definitively rule out the alternative explanation that the OKN is produced by an involuntary reflex even while the driver is “trying” to look at the TP. The results are discussed in terms of the sequential organization of curve driving. PMID:26287914

Neural Activation during Inhibition Predicts Initiation of Substance Use in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Norman, Andria L.; Pulido, Carmen; Squeglia, Lindsay M.; Spadoni, Andrea D.; Paulus, Martin P.; Tapert, Susan F.

2011-01-01

Background Problems inhibiting non-adaptive behaviors have been linked to an increased risk for substance use and other risk taking behaviors in adolescence. This study examines the hypothesis that abnormalities in neural activation during inhibition in early adolescence may predict subsequent substance involvement. Methods Thirty eight adolescents from local area middle schools, ages 12–14, with very limited histories of substance use, underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) as they performed a go/no-go task of response inhibition and response selection. Adolescents and their parents were then followed annually with interviews covering substance use and other behaviors. Based on follow-up data, youth were classified as transitioning to heavy use of alcohol (TU; n=21), or as healthy controls (CON; n=17). Results At baseline, prior to the onset of use, youth who later transitioned into heavy use of alcohol showed significantly less activation than those who went on to remain non to minimal users throughout adolescence. Activation reductions in TU at baseline were seen on no-go trials in 12 brain regions, including right inferior frontal gyrus, left dorsal and medial frontal areas, bilateral motor cortex, cingulate gyrus, left putamen, bilateral middle temporal gyri, and bilateral inferior parietal lobules (corrected p < .01, each cluster ≥ 32 contiguous voxels). Conclusions These results support the hypothesis that less neural activity during response inhibition demands predicts future involvement with problem behaviors such as alcohol and other substance use. PMID:21782354

Mechanism by which BMI influences leisure-time physical activity behavior.

PubMed

Godin, Gaston; Bélanger-Gravel, Ariane; Nolin, Bertrand

2008-06-01

The objective of this prospective study was to clarify the mechanism by which BMI influences leisure-time physical activity. This was achieved in accordance with the assumptions underlying the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), considered as one of the most useful theories to predict behavior adoption. At baseline, a sample of 1,530 respondents completed a short questionnaire to measure intention and perceived behavioral control (PBC), the two proximal determinants of behavior of TPB. Past behavior, sociodemographic variables, and weight and height were also assessed. The dependent variable, leisure-time physical activity was assessed 3 months later. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that BMI is a direct predictor of future leisure-time physical activity, not mediated by the variables of TPB. Additional hierarchical analyses indicated that BMI was not a moderator of the intention-behavior and PBC-behavior relationships. The results of this study suggest that high BMI is a significant negative determinant of leisure-time physical activity. This observation reinforces the importance of preventing weight gain as a health promotion strategy for avoiding a sedentary lifestyle.

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

2015-01-01

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

Improved Dynamic Modeling of the Cascade Distillation Subsystem and Integration with Models of Other Water Recovery Subsystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perry, Bruce; Anderson, Molly

2015-01-01

The Cascade Distillation Subsystem (CDS) is a rotary multistage distiller being developed to serve as the primary processor for wastewater recovery during long-duration space missions. The CDS could be integrated with a system similar to the International Space Station (ISS) Water Processor Assembly (WPA) to form a complete Water Recovery System (WRS) for future missions. Independent chemical process simulations with varying levels of detail have previously been developed using Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) to aid in the analysis of the CDS and several WPA components. The existing CDS simulation could not model behavior during thermal startup and lacked detailed analysis of several key internal processes, including heat transfer between stages. The first part of this paper describes modifications to the ACM model of the CDS that improve its capabilities and the accuracy of its predictions. Notably, the modified version of the model can accurately predict behavior during thermal startup for both NaCl solution and pretreated urine feeds. The model is used to predict how changing operating parameters and design features of the CDS affects its performance, and conclusions from these predictions are discussed. The second part of this paper describes the integration of the modified CDS model and the existing WPA component models into a single WRS model. The integrated model is used to demonstrate the effects that changes to one component can have on the dynamic behavior of the system as a whole.