Predicting Noninsulin Antidiabetic Drug Adherence Using a Theoretical Framework Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Zomahoun, Hervé Tchala Vignon; Moisan, Jocelyne; Lauzier, Sophie; Guillaumie, Laurence; Grégoire, Jean-Pierre; Guénette, Line

2016-01-01

Abstract Understanding the process behind noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) nonadherence is necessary for designing effective interventions to resolve this problem. This study aimed to explore the ability of the theory of planned behavior (TPB), which is known as a good predictor of behaviors, to predict the future NIAD adherence in adults with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a prospective study of adults with type 2 diabetes. They completed a questionnaire on TPB variables and external variables. Linear regression was used to explore the TPB's ability to predict future NIAD adherence, which was prospectively measured as the proportion of days covered by at least 1 NIAD using pharmacy claims data. The interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention was tested. The sample included 340 people. There was an interaction between past NIAD adherence and intention to adhere to the NIAD (P = 0.032). Intention did not predict future NIAD adherence in the past adherers and nonadherers groups, but its association measure was high among past nonadherers (β = 5.686, 95% confidence interval [CI] −10.174, 21.546). In contrast, intention was mainly predicted by perceived behavioral control both in the past adherers (β = 0.900, 95% CI 0.796, 1.004) and nonadherers groups (β = 0.760, 95% CI 0.555, 0.966). The present study suggests that TPB is a good tool to predict intention to adhere and future NIAD adherence. However, there was a gap between intention to adhere and actual adherence to the NIAD, which is partly explained by the past adherence level in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:27082543

The Reciprocal Relationship Between Sexual Victimization and Sexual Assertiveness

PubMed Central

Livingston, Jennifer A.; Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2007-01-01

Low sexual assertiveness has been proposed as a possible mechanism through which sexual revictimization occurs, yet evidence for this has been mixed. In this study, prospective path analysis was used to examine the relationship between sexual refusal assertiveness and sexual victimization over time among a community sample of women. Results provide support for a reciprocal relationship, with historical victimization predicting low sexual assertiveness and low sexual assertiveness predicting subsequent victimization. The effect of recent sexual victimization on subsequent sexual assertiveness also was replicated prospectively. These findings suggest that strengthening sexual assertiveness may help reduce vulnerability to future victimization. PMID:17322273

The reciprocal relationship between sexual victimization and sexual assertiveness.

PubMed

Livingston, Jennifer A; Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2007-03-01

Low sexual assertiveness has been proposed as a possible mechanism through which sexual revictimization occurs, yet evidence for this has been mixed. In this study, prospective path analysis was used to examine the relationship between sexual refusal assertiveness and sexual victimization over time among a community sample of women. Results provide support for a reciprocal relationship, with historical victimization predicting low sexual assertiveness and low sexual assertiveness predicting subsequent victimization. The effect of recent sexual victimization on subsequent sexual assertiveness also was replicated prospectively. These findings suggest that strengthening sexual assertiveness may help reduce vulnerability to future victimization.

A prospective study of mandibular trabecular bone to predict fracture incidence in women: a low-cost screening tool in the dental clinic.

PubMed

Jonasson, Grethe; Sundh, Valter; Ahlqwist, Margareta; Hakeberg, Magnus; Björkelund, Cecilia; Lissner, Lauren

2011-10-01

Bone structure is the key to the understanding of fracture risk. The hypothesis tested in this prospective study is that dense mandibular trabeculation predicts low fracture risk, whereas sparse trabeculation is predictive of high fracture risk. Out of 731 women from the Prospective Population Study of Women in Gothenburg with dental examinations at baseline 1968, 222 had their first fracture in the follow-up period until 2006. Mandibular trabeculation was defined as dense, mixed dense plus sparse, and sparse based on panoramic radiographs from 1968 and/or 1980. Time to fracture was ascertained and used as the dependent variable in three Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. The first analysis covered 12 years of follow-up with self-reported endpoints; the second covered 26 years of follow-up with hospital verified endpoints; and the third combined the two follow-up periods, totaling 38 years. Mandibular trabeculation was the main independent variable predicting incident fractures, with age, physical activity, alcohol consumption and body mass index as covariates. The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated a graded association between trabecular density and fracture risk. During the whole period covered, the hazard ratio of future fracture for sparse trabeculation compared to mixed trabeculation was 2.9 (95% CI: 2.2-3.8, p<0.0001), and for dense versus mixed trabeculation was 0.21 (95% CI: 0.1-0.4, p<0.0001). The trabecular pattern was a highly significant predictor of future fracture risk. Our findings imply that dentists, using ordinary dental radiographs, can identify women at high risk for future fractures at 38-54 years of age, often long before the first fracture occurs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rumination mediates the prospective effect of low self-esteem on depression: a five-wave longitudinal study.

PubMed

Kuster, Farah; Orth, Ulrich; Meier, Laurenz L

2012-06-01

Previous research supports the vulnerability model of low self-esteem and depression, which states that low self-esteem operates as a prospective risk factor for depression. However, it is unclear which processes mediate the effect of low self-esteem. To test for the mediating effect of rumination, the authors used longitudinal mediation models, which included exclusively prospective effects and controlled for autoregressive effects of the constructs. Data came from 663 individuals (aged 16 to 62 years), who were assessed 5 times over an 8-month period. The results indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent rumination, which in turn predicted subsequent depression, and that rumination partially mediated the prospective effect of low self-esteem on depression. These findings held for both men and women, and for both affective-cognitive and somatic symptoms of depression. Future studies should test for the mediating effects of additional intrapersonal and interpersonal processes.

Predicting Ecstasy Use among Young People at Risk: A Prospective Study of Initially Ecstasy-Naive Subjects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vervaeke, Hylke K.E.; Benschop, Annemieke; Van Den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

2008-01-01

Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged up to 18 years who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in the near future. After an 11- to…

Prognostic factors for work ability in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary health care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Nordeman, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2014-05-01

To investigate prognostic factors for future work ability in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) consulting primary health care. A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of female patients with CLBP within the primary health care was conducted. Patients were assessed at the first assessment and after 2 years. Prognostic factors for work ability (yes/no) were analyzed by multivariate regression. A total of 130 patients were included at first assessment. After 2 years, 123 patients (95%) were followed up. The 6-minute walk test, depression, and earlier work ability predicted work ability at the 2-year follow-up. A nomogram was constructed to assess the probability of future work ability. The 6-minute walk test, work ability, and depression predicted work ability for women with CLBP after 2 years.

Stress Generation, Avoidance Coping, and Depressive Symptoms: A 10-Year Model

PubMed Central

Holahan, Charles J.; Moos, Rudolf H.; Holahan, Carole K.; Brennan, Penny L.; Schutte, Kathleen K.

2011-01-01

This study examined (a) the role of avoidance coping in prospectively generating both chronic and acute life stressors and (b) the stress-generating role of avoidance coping as a prospective link to future depressive symptoms. Participants were 1,211 late-middle-aged individuals (500 women and 711 men) assessed 3 times over a 10-year period. As predicted, baseline avoidance coping was prospectively associated with both more chronic and more acute life stressors 4 years later. Furthermore, as predicted, these intervening life stressors linked baseline avoidance coping and depressive symptoms 10 years later, controlling for the influence of initial depressive symptoms. These findings broaden knowledge about the stress-generation process and elucidate a key mechanism through which avoidance coping is linked to depressive symptoms. PMID:16173853

Does Problem Behavior Elicit Poor Parenting?: A Prospective Study of Adolescent Girls

PubMed Central

Huh, David; Tristan, Jennifer; Wade, Emily; Stice, Eric

2006-01-01

This study tested the hypothesis that perceived parenting would show reciprocal relations with adolescents' problem behavior using longitudinal data from 496 adolescent girls. Results provided support for the assertion that female problem behavior has an adverse effect on parenting; elevated externalizing symptoms and substance abuse symptoms predicted future decreases in perceived parental support and control. There was less support for the assertion that parenting deficits foster adolescent problem behaviors; initially low parental control predicted future increases in substance abuse, but not externalizing symptoms, and low parental support did not predict future increases in externalizing or substance abuse symptoms. Results suggest that problem behavior is a more consistent predictor of parenting than parenting is of problem behavior, at least for girls during middle adolescence. PMID:16528407

Ultrasonographic measurements of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in prediction of ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Mathiesen, E B; Johnsen, S H

2009-01-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque measurements are widely used to quantify atherosclerosis and assess the risk of future stroke, and are used as surrogate endpoints for clinical disease. In recent years, it has become clear that carotid IMT and plaque reflect biologically and genetically different aspects of the atherosclerotic process, and are differentially related to risk factors and cardiovascular disease. Plaques are focal manifestations of atherosclerosis while increased IMT represents mainly hypertensive medial hypertrophy. Several prospective studies have showed that IMT and plaque measurements, such as total plaque area and plaque number, are predictive of future stroke. Plaque echogenicity predicts future stroke independent of plaque size. The contribution of IMT and plaque measurements in individual stroke risk prediction in the general population seems to be limited, but may be useful as a tool for individual stratification of high-risk patients.

Are predictors of future suicide attempts and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempts shared or distinct: a 12-month prospective study among patients with depressive disorders.

PubMed

Chan, Lai Fong; Shamsul, Azhar Shah; Maniam, Thambu

2014-12-30

Our study aimed to examine the interplay between clinical and social predictors of future suicide attempt and the transition from suicidal ideation to suicide attempt in depressive disorders. Sixty-six Malaysian inpatients with a depressive disorder were assessed at index admission and within 1 year for suicide attempt, suicidal ideation, depression severity, life event changes, treatment history and relevant clinical and socio-demographic factors. One-fifth of suicidal ideators transitioned to a future suicide attempt. All future attempters (12/66) had prior ideation and 83% of attempters had a prior attempt. The highest risk for transitioning from ideation to attempt was 5 months post-discharge. Single predictor models showed that previous psychiatric hospitalization and ideation severity were shared predictors of future attempt and ideation to attempt transition. Substance use disorders (especially alcohol) predicted future attempt and approached significance for the transition process. Low socio-economic status predicted the transition process while major personal injury/illness predicted future suicide attempt. Past suicide attempt, subjective depression severity and medication compliance predicted only future suicide attempt. The absence of prior suicide attempt did not eliminate the risk of future attempt. Given the limited sample, future larger studies on mechanisms underlying the interactions of such predictors are needed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

PubMed

Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time.

Novel use of the Wii Balance Board to prospectively predict falls in community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Kwok, Boon-Chong; Clark, Ross A; Pua, Yong-Hao

2015-06-01

The Wii Balance Board has received increasing attention as a balance measurement tool; however its ability to prospectively predict falls is unknown. This exploratory study investigated the use of the Wii Balance Board and other clinical-based measures for prospectively predicting falls among community-dwelling older adults. Seventy-three community-dwelling men and women, aged 60-85years were followed-up over a year for falls. Standing balance was indexed by sway velocities measured using the Wii Balance Board interfaced with a laptop. Clinical-based measures included Short Physical Performance Battery, gait speed and Timed-Up-and-Go test. Multivariable regression analyses were used to assess the ability of the Wii Balance Board measure to complement the TUG test in fall screening. Individually, the study found Wii Balance Board anteroposterior (odds ratio 1.98, 95% CI 1.16 to 3.40, P=0.01) and mediolateral (odds ratio 2.80, 95% CI 1.10 to 7.13, p=0.03) sway velocity measures predictive of prospective falls. However, when each velocity measure was adjusted with body mass index and Timed-Up-and-Go, only anteroposterior sway velocity was predictive of prospective falls (odds ratio 2.21, 95% CI 1.18 to 4.14). A faster anteroposterior velocity was associated with increased odds of falling. Area-under-the-curves for Wii Balance Board sway velocities were 0.67 and 0.71 for anteroposterior and mediolateral respectively. The Wii Balance Board-derived anteroposterior sway velocity measure could complement existing clinical-based measures in predicting future falls among community-dwelling older adults. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number: ACTRN12610001099011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Psychosis prediction and clinical utility in familial high-risk studies: Selective review, synthesis, and implications for early detection and intervention

PubMed Central

Shah, Jai L.; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S.

2016-01-01

Aim Accurate prediction of which individuals will go on to develop psychosis would assist early intervention and prevention paradigms. We sought to review investigations of prospective psychosis prediction based on markers and variables examined in longitudinal familial high-risk (FHR) studies. Methods We performed literature searches in MedLine, PubMed and PsycINFO for articles assessing performance characteristics of predictive clinical tests in FHR studies of psychosis. Studies were included if they reported one or more predictive variables in subjects at FHR for psychosis. We complemented this search strategy with references drawn from articles, reviews, book chapters and monographs. Results Across generations of familial high-risk projects, predictive studies have investigated behavioral, cognitive, psychometric, clinical, neuroimaging, and other markers. Recent analyses have incorporated multivariate and multi-domain approaches to risk ascertainment, although with still generally modest results. Conclusions While a broad range of risk factors has been identified, no individual marker or combination of markers can at this time enable accurate prospective prediction of emerging psychosis for individuals at FHR. We outline the complex and multi-level nature of psychotic illness, the myriad of factors influencing its development, and methodological hurdles to accurate and reliable prediction. Prospects and challenges for future generations of FHR studies are discussed in the context of early detection and intervention strategies. PMID:23693118

Mammographic density and breast cancer risk: current understanding and future prospects

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Variations in percent mammographic density (PMD) reflect variations in the amounts of collagen and number of epithelial and non-epithelial cells in the breast. Extensive PMD is associated with a markedly increased risk of invasive breast cancer. The PMD phenotype is important in the context of breast cancer prevention because extensive PMD is common in the population, is strongly associated with risk of the disease, and, unlike most breast cancer risk factors, can be changed. Work now in progress makes it likely that measurement of PMD will be improved in the near future and that understanding of the genetics and biological basis of the association of PMD with breast cancer risk will also improve. Future prospects for the application of PMD include mammographic screening, risk prediction in individuals, breast cancer prevention research, and clinical decision making. PMID:22114898

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for ED visits across all payers, all diseases, and all age groups. Therefore, providers can implement targeted care management strategies to the patient subgroups with similar patterns of clinical histories, driving the delivery of more efficient and effective health care interventions. To the best of our knowledge, this prospectively validated EMR-based, Web-based tool is the first one to allow real-time total population risk assessment for statewide ED visits.

Predicting students' physical activity and health-related well-being: a prospective cross-domain investigation of motivation across school physical education and exercise settings.

PubMed

Standage, Martyn; Gillison, Fiona B; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Treasure, Darren C

2012-02-01

A three-wave prospective design was used to assess a model of motivation guided by self-determination theory (Ryan & Deci, 2008) spanning the contexts of school physical education (PE) and exercise. The outcome variables examined were health-related quality of life (HRQoL), physical self-concept (PSC), and 4 days of objectively assessed estimates of activity. Secondary school students (n = 494) completed questionnaires at three separate time points and were familiarized with how to use a sealed pedometer. Results of structural equation modeling supported a model in which perceptions of autonomy support from a PE teacher positively predicted PE-related need satisfaction (autonomy, competence, and relatedness). Competence predicted PSC, whereas relatedness predicted HRQoL. Autonomy and competence positively predicted autonomous motivation toward PE, which in turn positively predicted autonomous motivation toward exercise (i.e., 4-day pedometer step count). Autonomous motivation toward exercise positively predicted step count, HRQoL, and PSC. Results of multisample structural equation modeling supported gender invariance. Suggestions for future work are discussed.

The cortisol awakening response predicts major depression: predictive stability over a 4-year follow-up and effect of depression history.

PubMed

Vrshek-Schallhorn, S; Doane, L D; Mineka, S; Zinbarg, R E; Craske, M G; Adam, E K

2013-03-01

The cortisol awakening response (CAR) has been shown to predict major depressive episodes (MDEs) over a 1-year period. It is unknown whether this effect: (a) is stable over longer periods of time; (b) is independent of prospective stressful life events; and (c) differentially predicts first onsets or recurrences of MDEs. A total of 270 older adolescents (mean age 17.06 years at cortisol measurement) from the larger prospective Northwestern-UCLA Youth Emotion Project completed baseline diagnostic and life stress interviews, questionnaires, and a 3-day cortisol sampling protocol measuring the CAR and diurnal rhythm, as well as up to four annual follow-up interviews of diagnoses and life stress. Non-proportional person-month survival analyses revealed that higher levels of the baseline CAR significantly predict MDEs for 2.5 years following cortisol measurement. However, the strength of prediction of depressive episodes significantly decays over time, with the CAR no longer significantly predicting MDEs after 2.5 years. Elevations in the CAR did not significantly increase vulnerability to prospective major stressful life events. They did, however, predict MDE recurrences more strongly than first onsets. These results suggest that a high CAR represents a time-limited risk factor for onsets of MDEs, which increases risk for depression independently of future major stressful life events. Possible explanations for the stronger effect of the CAR for predicting MDE recurrences than first onsets are discussed.

Impulsive versus premeditated aggression in the prediction of violent criminal recidivism.

PubMed

Swogger, Marc T; Walsh, Zach; Christie, Michael; Priddy, Brittany M; Conner, Kenneth R

2015-01-01

Past aggression is a potent predictor of future aggression and informs the prediction of violent criminal recidivism. However, aggression is a heterogeneous construct and different types of aggression may confer different levels of risk for future violence. In this prospective study of 91 adults in a pretrial diversion program, we examined (a) premeditated versus impulsive aggression in the prediction of violent recidivism during a one-year follow-up period, and (b) whether either type of aggression would have incremental validity in the prediction of violent recidivism after taking into account frequency of past general aggression. Findings indicate that premeditated, but not impulsive, aggression predicts violent recidivism. Moreover, premeditated aggression remained a predictor of recidivism even with general aggression frequency in the model. Results provide preliminary evidence that the assessment of premeditated aggression provides relevant information for the management of violent offenders. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impulsive versus Premeditated Aggression in the Prediction of Violent Criminal Recidivism

PubMed Central

Swogger, Marc T.; Walsh, Zach; Christie, Michael; Priddy, Brittany M.; Conner, Kenneth R.

2015-01-01

Past aggression is a potent predictor of future aggression and informs the prediction of violent criminal recidivism. However, aggression is a heterogeneous construct and different types of aggression may confer different levels of risk for future violence. In this prospective study of 91 adults in a pretrial diversion program, we examined a) premeditated versus impulsive aggression in the prediction of violent recidivism during a one-year follow-up period, and b) whether either type of aggression would have incremental validity in the prediction of violent recidivism after taking into account frequency of past general aggression. Findings indicate that premeditated, but not impulsive, aggression predicts violent recidivism. Moreover, premeditated aggression remained a predictor of recidivism even with general aggression frequency in the model. Results provide preliminary evidence that the assessment of premeditated aggression provides relevant information for the management of violent offenders. PMID:25043811

Prospective Coding by Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Brea, Johanni; Gaál, Alexisz Tamás; Senn, Walter

2016-01-01

Animals learn to make predictions, such as associating the sound of a bell with upcoming feeding or predicting a movement that a motor command is eliciting. How predictions are realized on the neuronal level and what plasticity rule underlies their learning is not well understood. Here we propose a biologically plausible synaptic plasticity rule to learn predictions on a single neuron level on a timescale of seconds. The learning rule allows a spiking two-compartment neuron to match its current firing rate to its own expected future discounted firing rate. For instance, if an originally neutral event is repeatedly followed by an event that elevates the firing rate of a neuron, the originally neutral event will eventually also elevate the neuron’s firing rate. The plasticity rule is a form of spike timing dependent plasticity in which a presynaptic spike followed by a postsynaptic spike leads to potentiation. Even if the plasticity window has a width of 20 milliseconds, associations on the time scale of seconds can be learned. We illustrate prospective coding with three examples: learning to predict a time varying input, learning to predict the next stimulus in a delayed paired-associate task and learning with a recurrent network to reproduce a temporally compressed version of a sequence. We discuss the potential role of the learning mechanism in classical trace conditioning. In the special case that the signal to be predicted encodes reward, the neuron learns to predict the discounted future reward and learning is closely related to the temporal difference learning algorithm TD(λ). PMID:27341100

Prospective associations between adolescent mental health problems and positive mental wellbeing in early old age.

PubMed

Nishida, Atsushi; Richards, Marcus; Stafford, Mai

2016-01-01

Mental health problems in adolescence are predictive of future mental distress and psychopathology; however, few studies investigated adolescent mental health problems in relation to future mental wellbeing and none with follow-up to older age. To test prospective associations between adolescent mental health problems and mental wellbeing and life satisfaction in early old age. A total of 1561 men and women were drawn from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (the British 1946 birth cohort). Teachers had previously completed rating scales to assess emotional adjustment and behaviours, which allowed us to extract factors of mental health problems measuring self-organisation, behavioural problems, and emotional problems during adolescence. Between the ages of 60-64 years, mental wellbeing was assessed using the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS) and life satisfaction was self-reported using the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS). After controlling for gender, social class of origin, childhood cognitive ability, and educational attainment, adolescent emotional problems were independently inversely associated with mental wellbeing and with life satisfaction. Symptoms of anxiety/depression at 60-64 years explained the association with life satisfaction but not with mental wellbeing. Associations between adolescent self-organisation and conduct problems and mental wellbeing and life satisfaction were of negligible magnitude, but higher childhood cognitive ability significantly predicted poor life satisfaction in early old age. Adolescent self-organisation and conduct problems may not be predictive of future mental wellbeing and life satisfaction. Adolescent emotional problems may be inversely associated with future wellbeing, and may be associated with lower levels of future life satisfaction through symptoms of anxiety/depression in early old age. Initiatives to prevent and treat emotional problems in adolescence may have long-term benefits which extend into older age.

Christodoulou Memory of GW150914 - Prospects of Detection in LIGO and Future Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Aaron; Kapadia, Shasvath; Kennefick, Daniel

2017-01-01

The event GW150914 produced strains of the order 10-21 in the two instruments comprising the Laser Interferometric Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO). The event has been interpreted as originating in a coalescing black hole binary, with individual components of about 30 solar masses each. A striking aspect of the coalescence deduced from the signal is the emission of 3 solar masses of energy in the oscillating gravitational wave. Theory predicts a DC component of the gravitational signal associated with the emission of such large amounts of gravitational wave energy known as the Christodoulou memory. The memory, as a non-linear component of the signal, is expected to be an order of magnitude smaller than the amplitude of the primary AC component of the gravitational waves. We discuss the prospects of detecting the Christodoulou memory in similar future signals, both with LIGO and with other detectors, including future space-based instruments.

Comparison of the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale, Mini-BESTest, and Berg Balance Scale to Predict Falls in Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Schlenstedt, Christian; Brombacher, Stephanie; Hartwigsen, Gesa; Weisser, Burkhard; Möller, Bettina; Deuschl, Günther

2016-04-01

The correct identification of patients with Parkinson disease (PD) at risk for falling is important to initiate appropriate treatment early. This study compared the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) scale with the Mini-Balance Evaluation Systems Test (Mini-BESTest) and Berg Balance Scale (BBS) to identify individuals with PD at risk for falls and to analyze which of the items of the scales best predict future falls. This was a prospective study to assess predictive criterion-related validity. The study was conducted at a university hospital in an urban community. Eighty-five patients with idiopathic PD (Hoehn and Yahr stages: 1-4) participated in the study. Measures were number of falls (assessed prospectively over 6 months), FAB scale, Mini-BESTest, BBS, and Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale. The FAB scale, Mini-BESTest, and BBS showed similar accuracy to predict future falls, with values for area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.68, 0.65, and 0.69, respectively. A model combining the items "tandem stance," "rise to toes," "one-leg stance," "compensatory stepping backward," "turning," and "placing alternate foot on stool" had an AUC of 0.84 of the ROC curve. There was a dropout rate of 19/85 participants. The FAB scale, Mini-BESTest, and BBS provide moderate capacity to predict "fallers" (people with one or more falls) from "nonfallers." Only some items of the 3 scales contribute to the detection of future falls. Clinicians should particularly focus on the item "tandem stance" along with the items "one-leg stance," "rise to toes," "compensatory stepping backward," "turning 360°," and "placing foot on stool" when analyzing postural control deficits related to fall risk. Future research should analyze whether balance training including the aforementioned items is effective in reducing fall risk. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

Reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance predicts future falls in community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Carty, Christopher P; Cronin, Neil J; Nicholson, Deanne; Lichtwark, Glen A; Mills, Peter M; Kerr, Graham; Cresswell, Andrew G; Barrett, Rod S

2015-01-01

a fall occurs when an individual experiences a loss of balance from which they are unable to recover. Assessment of balance recovery ability in older adults may therefore help to identify individuals at risk of falls. The purpose of this 12-month prospective study was to assess whether the ability to recover from a forward loss of balance with a single step across a range of lean magnitudes was predictive of falls. two hundred and one community-dwelling older adults, aged 65-90 years, underwent baseline testing of sensori-motor function and balance recovery ability followed by 12-month prospective falls evaluation. Balance recovery ability was defined by whether participants required either single or multiple steps to recover from forward loss of balance from three lean magnitudes, as well as the maximum lean magnitude participants could recover from with a single step. forty-four (22%) participants experienced one or more falls during the follow-up period. Maximal recoverable lean magnitude and use of multiple steps to recover at the 15% body weight (BW) and 25%BW lean magnitudes significantly predicted a future fall (odds ratios 1.08-1.26). The Physiological Profile Assessment, an established tool that assesses variety of sensori-motor aspects of falls risk, was also predictive of falls (Odds ratios 1.22 and 1.27, respectively), whereas age, sex, postural sway and timed up and go were not predictive. reactive stepping behaviour in response to forward loss of balance and physiological profile assessment are independent predictors of a future fall in community-dwelling older adults. Exercise interventions designed to improve reactive stepping behaviour may protect against future falls. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nonflammable Substitute for PCB Introduced in U.K.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chemical and Engineering News, 1984

1984-01-01

Discusses employment prospects for chemists and chemical engineers working in energy research and development (R & D) based on the Department of Energy report "Energy-related Manpower, 1983." Indicates that conclusions related to R & D funding and employment are uncertain because of the difficulty in predicting future changes in…

Child Health, Maternal Marital and Socioeconomic Factors, and Maternal Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garbarski, Dana; Witt, Whitney P.

2013-01-01

Although maternal socioeconomic status and health predict in part children's future health and socioeconomic prospects, it is possible that the intergenerational association flows in the other direction such that child health affects maternal outcomes. Previous research demonstrates that poor child health increases the risk of adverse maternal…

Freshman year alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predict time to college graduation and subsequent adult roles and independence.

PubMed

Wilhite, Emily R; Ashenhurst, James R; Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

2017-01-01

This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N = 2,050). The second analyses corresponded to a subset of participants at age 27 (N = 575). Measures included self-reported substance use, adult role adoption, and university reported graduation dates. Results indicated that frequent binge drinking and marijuana use during freshman year predicted delayed college graduation. Those who took longer to graduate were more likely to have lower incomes and were less likely to obtain a graduate degree. Taking 5-6 years to graduate was associated with greater likelihood of alcohol-related problems. Findings support the importance of interventions during freshman year of college to decrease substance use and promote timely graduation.

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time. PMID:26863212

Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight.

PubMed

Chao, Ariana M; Jastreboff, Ania M; White, Marney A; Grilo, Carlos M; Sinha, Rajita

2017-04-01

To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic, longitudinal, 6-month follow-up study. A prospective community cohort of 339 adults (age 29.1 ± 9.0 years; BMI = 26.7 ± 5.4 kg/m 2 ; 56.9% female; 70.2% white) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormone levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured, and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (Ps < 0.05). However, after adjusting for covariates, individuals with higher baseline total ghrelin had significantly higher food cravings at 6 months (P = 0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (Ps < 0.05). These results suggest that ghrelin plays a role in increased food cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight

PubMed Central

Chao, Ariana M.; Jastreboff, Ania M.; White, Marney A.; Grilo, Carlos M.; Sinha, Rajita

2017-01-01

Objective To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic longitudinal 6-month follow-up study. Methods A prospective community cohort of three hundred and thirty-nine adults (age=29.1± 9.0 years; BMI=26.7±5.4 kg/m2; 56.9% female; 70.2% White) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormones levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (ps<0.05). However, after adjusting for covariates, individuals with higher baseline total ghrelin had significantly higher food cravings at 6 months (p=0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (ps<0.05). Conclusions These results suggest that ghrelin plays a role in increased food cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. PMID:28349668

Predictors of Extradyadic Sexual Involvement in Unmarried Opposite-Sex Relationships

PubMed Central

Maddox Shaw, Amanda M.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Allen, Elizabeth S.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

2012-01-01

Using a sample of unmarried individuals in opposite-sex romantic relationships that was representative of the United States (N = 933), the current study prospectively evaluated predictors of extradyadic sexual involvement (ESI) over 20-months. Data were collected with self-report questionnaires via U.S. mail. Participants were 18–35 years old and were 34.9% male. Variables tested as predictors included involved-partner factors such as demographic characteristics, sexual history, and mental health, as well as relationship-related factors including communication, sexual dynamics, and aspects of commitment. Future ESI was significantly predicted by lower baseline relationship satisfaction, negative communication, aggression, lower dedication, absence of plans to marry, suspicion of partner’s ESI, and partner’s ESI. It was not predicted by sexual frequency, sexual dissatisfaction, or cohabitation status. Although more problems with alcohol use, more previous sex partners, and having parents who never married one another predicted future ESI, there were many involved-partner demographic factors that did not predict later ESI (e.g., gender, age, education, religiosity, having divorced parents, and having children). None of the results were moderated by gender. These results suggest that compared to demographic characteristics, relationship dynamics and negative interactions are more strongly predictive of future ESI. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:22524318

Predicting fibromyalgia, a narrative review: are we better than fools and children?

PubMed

Ablin, J N; Buskila, D

2014-09-01

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a common and intriguing condition, manifest by chronic pain and fatigue. Although the pathogenesis of FMS is not yet completely understood, predicting the future development of FMS and chronic pain is a major challenge with great potential advantages, both from an individual as well as an epidemiological standpoint. Current knowledge indicates a genetic underpinning for FMS, and as increasing data are accumulated regarding the genetics involved, the prospect of utilizing these data for prediction becomes ever more attractive. The co-existence of FMS with multiple other functional disorders indicates that the clinical identification of such symptom constellations in a patient can alert the physician to the future development of FMS. Hypermobility syndrome is another clinical (as well as genetic) phenotype that has emerged as a risk factor for the development of FMS. Stressful events, including early life trauma, are also harbingers of the future development of FMS. Functional neuroimaging may help to elucidate the neural processes involved in central sensitization, and may ultimately also evolve into markers of predictive value. Last but not least, obesity and disturbed sleep are clinical (inter-related) features relevant for this spectrum. Future efforts will aim at integrating genetic, clinical and physiological data in the prediction of FMS and chronic pain. © 2014 European Pain Federation - EFIC®

Prospective time-resolved LCA of fully electric supercap vehicles in Germany.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Benedikt M; Dura, Hanna; Baumann, Manuel J; Weil, Marcel R

2015-07-01

The ongoing transition of the German electricity supply toward a higher share of renewable and sustainable energy sources, called Energiewende in German, has led to dynamic changes in the environmental impact of electricity over the last few years. Prominent scenario studies predict that comparable dynamics will continue in the coming decades, which will further improve the environmental performance of Germany's electricity supply. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is the methodology commonly used to evaluate environmental performance. Previous LCA studies on electric vehicles have shown that the electricity supply for the vehicles' operation is responsible for the major part of their environmental impact. The core question of this study is how the prospective dynamic development of the German electricity mix will affect the impact of electric vehicles operated in Germany and how LCA can be adapted to analyze this impact in a more robust manner. The previously suggested approach of time-resolved LCA, which is located between static and dynamic LCA, is used in this study and compared with several static approaches. Furthermore, the uncertainty issue associated with scenario studies is addressed in general and in relation to time-resolved LCA. Two scenario studies relevant to policy making have been selected, but a moderate number of modifications have been necessary to adapt the data to the requirements of a life cycle inventory. A potential, fully electric vehicle powered by a supercapacitor energy storage system is used as a generic example. The results show that substantial improvements in the environmental repercussions of the electricity supply and, consequentially, of electric vehicles will be achieved between 2020 and 2031 on the basis of the energy mixes predicted in both studies. This study concludes that although scenarios might not be able to predict the future, they should nonetheless be used as data sources in prospective LCA studies, because in many cases historic data appears to be unsuitable for providing realistic information on the future. The time-resolved LCA approach improves the assessment's robustness substantially, especially when nonlinear developments are foreseen in the future scenarios. This allows for a reduction of bias in LCA-based decision making. However, a deeper integration of time-resolved data in the life cycle inventory and the implementation of a more suitable software framework are desirable. The study describes how life cycle assessment's (LCA) robustness can be improved by respecting prospective fluctuations, like the transition of the German electricity mix, in the modeling of the life cycle inventory. It presents a feasible and rather simple process to add time-resolved data to LCA. The study selects 2 different future scenarios from important German studies and processes their data systematically to make them compatible with the requirements of a life cycle inventory. The use of external scenarios as basis for future-oriented LCA is reflected critically. A case study on electric mobility is presented and used to compare historic, prospective static, and prospective time-resolved electricity mix modeling approaches. The case study emphasizes the benefits of time-resolved LCA in direct comparison with the currently used approaches. © 2015 SETAC.

Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Readmission in Patients Who Undergo General Surgery.

PubMed

Tevis, Sarah E; Weber, Sharon M; Kent, K Craig; Kennedy, Gregory D

2015-06-01

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have implemented penalties for hospitals with above-average readmission rates under the Hospital Readmissions Reductions Program. These changes will likely be extended to affect postoperative readmissions in the future. To identify variables that place patients at risk for readmission, develop a predictive nomogram, and validate this nomogram. Retrospective review and prospective validation of a predictive nomogram. A predictive nomogram was developed with the linear predictor method using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database paired with institutional billing data for patients who underwent nonemergent inpatient general surgery procedures. The nomogram was developed from August 1, 2006, through December 31, 2011, in 2799 patients and prospectively validated from November 1, 2013, through December 19, 2013, in 255 patients at a single academic institution. Area under the curve and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The outcome of interest was readmission within 30 days of discharge following an index hospitalization for a surgical procedure. Bleeding disorder (odds ratio, 2.549; 95% CI, 1.464-4.440), long operative time (odds ratio, 1.601; 95% CI, 1.186-2.160), in-hospital complications (odds ratio, 16.273; 95% CI, 12.028-22.016), dependent functional status, and the need for a higher level of care at discharge (odds ratio, 1.937; 95% CI, 1.176-3.190) were independently associated with readmission. The nomogram accurately predicted readmission (C statistic = 0.756) in a prospective evaluation. The negative predictive value was 97.9% in the prospective validation, while the positive predictive value was 11.1%. Development of an online calculator using this predictive model will allow us to identify patients who are at high risk for readmission at the time of discharge. Patients with increased risk may benefit from more intensive postoperative follow-up in the outpatient setting.

Commentary: The Development of Creativity--Ability, Motivation, and Potential

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silvia, Paul J.; Christensen, Alexander P.; Cotter, Katherine N.

2016-01-01

A major question for research on the development of creativity is whether it is interested in "creative potential" (a prospective approach that uses measures early in life to predict adult creativity) or in children's creativity for its own sake. We suggest that a focus on potential for future creativity diminishes the fascinating…

Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Donald McKenzie; Donald A. Falk; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Carol Miller; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

2015-01-01

The prospect of rapidly changing climates over the next century calls for methods to predict their effects on myriad, interactive ecosystem processes. Spatially explicit models that simulate ecosystem dynamics at fine (plant, stand) to coarse (regional, global) scales are indispensable tools for meeting this challenge under a variety of possible futures. A special...

Resting-state regional cerebral blood flow during adolescence: associations with initiation of substance use and prediction of future use disorders.

PubMed

Ramage, Amy E; Lin, Ai-Ling; Olvera, Rene L; Fox, Peter T; Williamson, Douglas E

2015-04-01

Adolescence is a period of developmental flux when brain systems are vulnerable to influences of early substance use, which in turn relays increased risk for substance use disorders. Our study intent was to assess adolescent regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) as it relates to current and future alcohol use. The aim was to identify brain-based predictors for initiation of alcohol use and onset of future substance use disorders. Quantitative rCBF was assessed in 100 adolescents (age 12-15). Prospective behavioral assessments were conducted annually over a three-year follow-up period to characterize onset of alcohol initiation, future drinking patterns and use disorders. Comparisons amongst use groups (i.e., current-, future-, and non-alcohol using adolescents) identified rCBF associated with initiation of alcohol use. Regression by future drinking patterns identified rCBF predictive of heavier drinking. Survival analysis determined whether or not baseline rCBF predicted later development of use disorders. Baseline rCBF was decreased to the parietal cortex and increased to mesolimbic regions in adolescents currently using alcohol as well as those who would use alcohol in the future. Higher baseline rCBF to the left fusiform gyrus and lower rCBF to the right inferior parietal cortex and left cerebellum was associated with future drinking patterns as well as predicted the onset of alcohol and substance use disorders in this cohort. Variations in resting rCBF to regions within reward and default mode or control networks appear to represent trait markers of alcohol use initiation and are predictive of future development of use disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reactivity to Exclusion Prospectively Predicts Social Anxiety Symptoms in Young Adults

PubMed Central

Levinson, Cheri A.; Langer, Julia K.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.

2013-01-01

Peer victimization leads to negative outcomes such as increased anxiety and depression. The prospective relationship between peer victimization and social anxiety in children and adolescents is well established, and adults with social anxiety disorder (SAD) are more likely than individuals with other anxiety disorders to report a history of teasing. However, a crucial bridge between these findings (peer victimization in young adults) is missing. We manipulated perceptions of peer exclusion in a young adult sample (N = 108) using the Cyberball Ostracism Task. Reactivity to exclusion prospectively predicted social anxiety symptoms at a 2-month follow-up, whereas self-reported teasing during high school and current relational victimization did not. This research suggests that reactions to peer victimization may be a worthwhile target for clinical interventions in young adults. Targeting how young adults react to stressful social interactions such as exclusion may help prevent the development of SAD. Future research should test if reactivity to exclusion plays a role in the relationship between other disorders (e.g., depression) and peer victimization. PMID:23768673

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brian E.

2013-01-01

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

Predictive Validity of National Basketball Association Draft Combine on Future Performance.

PubMed

Teramoto, Masaru; Cross, Chad L; Rieger, Randall H; Maak, Travis G; Willick, Stuart E

2018-02-01

Teramoto, M, Cross, CL, Rieger, RH, Maak, TG, and Willick, SE. Predictive validity of national basketball association draft combine on future performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(2): 396-408, 2018-The National Basketball Association (NBA) Draft Combine is an annual event where prospective players are evaluated in terms of their athletic abilities and basketball skills. Data collected at the Combine should help NBA teams select right the players for the upcoming NBA draft; however, its value for predicting future performance of players has not been examined. This study investigated predictive validity of the NBA Draft Combine on future performance of basketball players. We performed a principal component analysis (PCA) on the 2010-2015 Combine data to reduce correlated variables (N = 234), a correlation analysis on the Combine data and future on-court performance to examine relationships (maximum pairwise N = 217), and a robust principal component regression (PCR) analysis to predict first-year and 3-year on-court performance from the Combine measures (N = 148 and 127, respectively). Three components were identified within the Combine data through PCA (= Combine subscales): length-size, power-quickness, and upper-body strength. As per the correlation analysis, the individual Combine items for anthropometrics, including height without shoes, standing reach, weight, wingspan, and hand length, as well as the Combine subscale of length-size, had positive, medium-to-large-sized correlations (r = 0.313-0.545) with defensive performance quantified by Defensive Box Plus/Minus. The robust PCR analysis showed that the Combine subscale of length-size was a predictor most significantly associated with future on-court performance (p ≤ 0.05), including Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player, followed by upper-body strength. In conclusion, the NBA Draft Combine has value for predicting future performance of players.

Streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections and psychosocial stress predict future tic and obsessive-compulsive symptom severity in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder

PubMed Central

Lin, Haiqun; Williams, Kyle A.; Katsovich, Liliya; Findley, Diane B.; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J.; King, Robert A.; Bessen, Debra E.; Johnson, Dwight; Kaplan, Edward L.; Landeros-Weisenberger, Angeli; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F.

2009-01-01

Background: One goal of this prospective longitudinal study was to identify new group A beta hemolytic streptococcal (GABHS) infections in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared to healthy control subjects. We then examined the power of GABHS infections and measures of psychosocial stress to predict future tic, obsessive-compulsive (OC), and depressive symptom severity. Methods: Consecutive ratings of tic, OC and depressive symptom severity were obtained for 45 cases and 41 matched control subjects over a two-year period. Clinical raters were blinded to the results of laboratory tests. Laboratory personnel were blinded to case or control status and clinical ratings. Structural equation modeling for unbalanced repeated measures was used to assess the sequence of new GABHS infections and psychosocial stress and their impact on future symptom severity. Results: Increases in tic and OC symptom severity did not occur after every new GABHS infection. However, the structural equation model found that these newly diagnosed infections were predictive of modest increases in future tic and OC symptom severity, but did not predict future depressive symptom severity. In addition, the inclusion of new infections in the model greatly enhanced, by a factor of three, the power of psychosocial stress in predicting future tic and OC symptom severity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that a minority of children with TS and early-onset OCD were sensitive to antecedent GABHS infections. These infections also enhanced the predictive power of current psychosocial stress on future tic and OC symptom severity. PMID:19833320

An examination of the prospective impact of bulimic symptoms and dietary restraint on life hassles and social support.

PubMed

Kwan, Mun Yee; Gordon, Kathryn H

2016-02-01

The stress generation hypothesis posits that individuals with psychopathology engage in maladaptive behaviors that create stress. Although extensively researched in the depression literature, few studies have investigated whether the stress generation hypothesis applies to eating disorders. This study examined whether bulimic symptoms and dietary restraint predict future life hassles and low social support among undergraduate students. Three hundred seventy-four undergraduate students participated in this two-part prospective study through a secure online system. They completed questionnaires assessing depressive symptoms, bulimic symptoms, dietary restraint, life hassles, and social support. Regression analyses revealed that baseline bulimic symptoms predicted greater life hassles but not lower social support one month later, after statistically controlling for baseline measures. Baseline dietary restraint did not predict future life hassles or social support. Limitations include use of self-report measures, suboptimal response rates at the follow-up assessment, and use of a non-clinical sample with primarily White participants. These results provide preliminary support for the stress generation hypothesis in relation to bulimic symptoms. Individuals with bulimic symptoms may generate stressors similar to those experiencing depressive symptoms. Our findings suggest that emphasizing stress management in the treatment of individuals with bulimic symptoms could potentially improve treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anticipated affective consequences of physical activity adoption and maintenance.

PubMed

Dunton, Genevieve Fridlund; Vaughan, Elaine

2008-11-01

The expected emotional consequences of future actions are thought to play an important role in health behavior change. This research examined whether anticipated affective consequences of success and failure vary across stages of physical activity change and differentially predict physical activity adoption as compared to maintenance. Using a prospective design over a 3-month period, a community sample of 329 healthy, middle-aged adults were assessed at 2 time points. Anticipated positive and negative emotions, stage of behavior change (precontemplation [PC], contemplation [C], preparation [P], action [A], maintenance [M]), and level of physical activity. At baseline, anticipated positive emotions were greater in C versus PC, whereas anticipated negative emotions were greater in M versus A and in M versus P. Higher anticipated positive but not negative emotions predicted physical activity adoption and maintenance after 3 months. Although the expected affective consequences of future success and failure differentiated among individuals in the early and later stages of physical activity change, respectively; only the anticipated affective consequences of success predicted future behavior.

Model-based choices involve prospective neural activity

PubMed Central

Doll, Bradley B.; Duncan, Katherine D.; Simon, Dylan A.; Shohamy, Daphna; Daw, Nathaniel D.

2015-01-01

Decisions may arise via “model-free” repetition of previously reinforced actions, or by “model-based” evaluation, which is widely thought to follow from prospective anticipation of action consequences using a learned map or model. While choices and neural correlates of decision variables sometimes reflect knowledge of their consequences, it remains unclear whether this actually arises from prospective evaluation. Using functional MRI and a sequential reward-learning task in which paths contained decodable object categories, we found that humans’ model-based choices were associated with neural signatures of future paths observed at decision time, suggesting a prospective mechanism for choice. Prospection also covaried with the degree of model-based influences on neural correlates of decision variables, and was inversely related to prediction error signals thought to underlie model-free learning. These results dissociate separate mechanisms underlying model-based and model-free evaluation and support the hypothesis that model-based influences on choices and neural decision variables result from prospection. PMID:25799041

Improved UT1 Predictions through Low-Latency VLBI Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-14

J Geod (2010) 84:399–402 DOI 10.1007/s00190-010-0372-8 SHORT NOTE Improved UT1 predictions through low-latency VLBI observations Brian Luzum · Axel...polar motion and nutation on UT1 determinations from VLBI Intensive obser- vations. J Geod 82(12):863. doi:10.1007/s00190-008-0212-2 Ray JR, Carter WE...Behrend D (2007) The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS): current capabilities and future prospects. J Geod 81(6–8):479. doi

Activities-specific balance confidence scale for predicting future falls in Indian older adults.

PubMed

Moiz, Jamal Ali; Bansal, Vishal; Noohu, Majumi M; Gaur, Shailendra Nath; Hussain, Mohammad Ejaz; Anwer, Shahnawaz; Alghadir, Ahmad

2017-01-01

Activities-specific balance confidence (ABC) scale is a subjective measure of confidence in performing various ambulatory activities without falling or experiencing a sense of unsteadiness. This study aimed to examine the ability of the Hindi version of the ABC scale (ABC-H scale) to discriminate between fallers and non-fallers and to examine its predictive validity for prospective falls. This was a prospective cohort study. A total of 125 community-dwelling older adults (88 were men) completed the ABC-H scale. The occurrence of falls over the follow-up period of 12 months was recorded. Discriminative validity was analyzed by comparing the total ABC-H scale scores between the faller and non-faller groups. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and a logistic regression analysis were used to examine the predictive accuracy of the ABC-H scale. The mean ABC-H scale score of the faller group was significantly lower than that of the non-faller group (52.6±8.1 vs 73.1±12.2; P <0.001). The optimal cutoff value for distinguishing faller and non-faller adults was ≤58.13. The sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of the cutoff score were 86.3%, 87.3%, 0.91 ( P <0.001), 6.84, and 0.16, respectively. The percentage test accuracy and false-positive and false-negative rates were 86.87%, 12.2%, and 13.6%, respectively. A dichotomized total ABC-H scale score of ≤58.13% (adjusted odds ratio =0.032, 95% confidence interval =0.004-0.25, P =0.001) was significantly related with future falls. The ABC-H scores were significantly and independently related with future falls in the community-dwelling Indian older adults. The ability of the ABC-H scale to predict future falls was adequate with high sensitivity and specificity values.

Principal Licensure Exams and Future Job Performance: Evidence from the School Leaders Licensure Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grissom, Jason A.; Mitani, Hajime; Blissett, Richard S. L.

2017-01-01

Many states require prospective principals to pass a licensure exam to obtain an administrative license, but we know little about the potential effects of principal licensure exams on the pool of available principals or whether scores predict later job performance. We investigate the most commonly used exam, the School Leaders Licensure Assessment…

Psychosocial Stress Predicts Future Symptom Severities in Children and Adolescents with Tourette Syndrome and/or Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Haiqun; Katsovich, Liliya; Ghebremichael, Musie; Findley, Diane B.; Grantz, Heidi; Lombroso, Paul J.; King, Robert A.; Zhang, Heping; Leckman, James F.

2007-01-01

Background: The goals of this prospective longitudinal study were to monitor levels of psychosocial stress in children and adolescents with Tourette syndrome (TS) and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) compared to healthy control subjects and to examine the relationship between measures of psychosocial stress and fluctuations in tic,…

The Future of Work: Insights, Views, Prospects. Basis-Info: Social Policy. IN Press.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bechtel, Michael

Young people must prepare themselves for lifelong learning and frequent job changes. Optimists predict a new world of work with many creative, interesting, satisfying jobs; pessimists believe society will finally run out of work and foresee unemployment and social downgrading for a majority of people. There are indications at present of both…

The Royal Road to Time: How Understanding of the Evolution of Time in the Brain Addresses Memory, Dreaming, Flow, and Other Psychological Phenomena.

PubMed

Hancock, Peter A

2015-01-01

It has been claimed that dreams are the royal road to the unconscious mind. The present work argues that dreams and associated brain states such as memory, attention, flow, and perhaps even consciousness itself arise from diverse conflicts over control of time in the brain. Dreams are the brain's offline efforts to distill projections of the future, while memory represents the vestiges of the past successes and survived failures of those and other conscious projections. Memory thus acts to inform and improve the prediction of possible future states through the use of conscious prospects (planning) and unconscious prospective memory (dreams). When successful, these prospects result in states of flow for conscious planning and déjà vu for its unconscious comparator. In consequence, and contrary to normal expectation, memory is overwhelmingly oriented to deal with the future. Consciousness is the comparable process operating in the present moment. Thus past, present, and future are homeomorphic with the parts of memory (episodic and autobiographical) that recall a personal past, consciousness, and the differing dimensions of prospective memory to plan for future circumstances, respectively. Dreaming (i.e., unconscious prospective memory), has the luxury to run multiple "what if" simulations of many possible futures, essentially offline. I explicate these propositions and their relations to allied constructs such as déjà vu and flow. More generally, I propose that what appear to us as a range of normal psychological experiences are actually manifestations of an ongoing pathological battle for control within the brain. The landscape of this conflict is time. I suggest that there are at least 3 general systems bidding for this control, and in the process of evolution, each system has individually conferred a sequentially increasing survival advantage, but only at the expense of a still incomplete functional integration. Through juxtaposition of these respective brain systems, I endeavor to resolve some fundamental paradoxes and conundrums expressed in the basic psychological and behavioral processes of sleep, consciousness, and memory. The implication of this conceptual framework for the overall conception of time is then briefly adumbrated.

Prospective memory in schizophrenia: relationship to medication management skills, neurocognition, and symptoms in individuals with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Raskin, Sarah A; Maye, Jacqueline; Rogers, Alexandra; Correll, David; Zamroziewicz, Marta; Kurtz, Matthew

2014-05-01

Impaired adherence to medication regimens is a serious concern for individuals with schizophrenia linked to relapse and poorer outcomes. One possible reason for poor adherence to medication is poor ability to remember future intentions, labeled prospective memory skills. It has been demonstrated in several studies that individuals with schizophrenia have impairments in prospective memory that are linked to everyday life skills. However, there have been no studies, to our knowledge, examining the relationship of a clinical measure of prospective memory to medication management skills, a key element of successful adherence. In this Study 41 individuals with schizophrenia and 25 healthy adults were administered a standardized test battery that included measures of prospective memory, medication management skills, neurocognition, and symptoms. Individuals with schizophrenia demonstrated impairments in prospective memory (both time and event-based) relative to healthy controls. Performance on the test of prospective memory was correlated with the standardized measure of medication management in individuals with schizophrenia. Moreover, the test of prospective memory predicted skills in medication adherence even after measures of neurocognition were accounted for. This suggests that prospective memory may play a key role in medication management skills and thus should be a target of cognitive remediation programs.

Hip Strength as a Predictor of Ankle Sprains in Male Soccer Players: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Powers, Christopher M; Ghoddosi, Navid; Straub, Rachel K; Khayambashi, Khalil

2017-11-01

  Diminished hip-abductor strength has been suggested to increase the risk of noncontact lateral ankle sprains.   To determine prospectively whether baseline hip-abductor strength predicts future noncontact lateral ankle sprains in competitive male soccer players.   Prospective cohort study.   Athletic training facilities and various athletic fields.   Two hundred ten competitive male soccer players.   Before the start of the sport season, isometric hip-abductor strength was measured bilaterally using a handheld dynamometer. Any previous history of ankle sprain, body mass index, age, height, and weight were documented. During the sport season (30 weeks), ankle injury status was recorded by team medical providers. Injured athletes were further classified based on the mechanism of injury. Only data from injured athletes who sustained noncontact lateral ankle sprains were used for analysis. Postseason, logistic regression was used to determine whether baseline hip strength predicted future noncontact lateral ankle sprains. A receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed for hip strength to determine the cutoff value for distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk outcomes.   A total of 25 noncontact lateral ankle sprains were confirmed, for an overall annual incidence of 11.9%. Baseline hip-abductor strength was lower in injured players than in uninjured players ( P = .008). Logistic regression indicated that impaired hip-abductor strength increased the future injury risk (odds ratio = 1.10 [95% confidence interval = 1.02, 1.18], P = .010). The strength cutoff to define high risk was ≤33.8% body weight, as determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. For athletes classified as high risk, the probability of injury increased from 11.9% to 26.7%.   Reduced isometric hip-abductor strength predisposed competitive male soccer players to noncontact lateral ankle sprains.

Time perspective as a determinant of smoking cessation in four countries: Direct and mediated effects from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) 4-Country Surveys

PubMed Central

Hall, Peter A.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Meng, Gang

2015-01-01

Background Future oriented time perspective predicts a number of important health behaviors and outcomes, including smoking cessation. However, it is not known how future orientation exerts its effects on such outcomes, and no large scale cross-national studies have examined the question prospectively. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the relationship between time perspective and success in smoking cessation, and social cognitive mediators of the association. Methods The ITC-4 is a multi-wave, four country survey (Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) of current smokers (N=9,772); the survey includes baseline measurements of time perspective, intentions, quit attempts, and self-reported quit status at follow-up over 8 years. We examined the predictive power of time perspective for smoking cessation, as mediated through strength of quit intentions and prior history of quit attempts. Results Findings indicated that those smokers with a stronger future orientation at baseline were more likely to have successfully quit at follow-up. This effect was partially explained by intention-mediated effects of future orientation on quit attempts. Conclusions Future orientation predicts smoking cessation across four English-speaking countries; the cessation-facilitating effects of future orientation may be primarily due to future oriented individuals’ motivated and sustained involvement in the quit cycle over time. PMID:24747807

Time perspective as a determinant of smoking cessation in four countries: Direct and mediated effects from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) 4-Country Surveys.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Meng, Gang

2014-07-01

Future oriented time perspective predicts a number of important health behaviors and outcomes, including smoking cessation. However, it is not known how future orientation exerts its effects on such outcomes, and no large scale cross-national studies have examined the question prospectively. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the relationship between time perspective and success in smoking cessation, and social cognitive mediators of the association. The ITC-4 is a multi-wave, four country survey (Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) of current smokers (N=9772); the survey includes baseline measurements of time perspective, intentions, quit attempts, and self-reported quit status at follow-up over 8 years. We examined the predictive power of time perspective for smoking cessation, as mediated through strength of quit intentions and prior history of quit attempts. Findings indicated that those smokers with a stronger future orientation at baseline were more likely to have successfully quit at follow-up. This effect was partially explained by intention-mediated effects of future orientation on quit attempts. Future orientation predicts smoking cessation across four English-speaking countries; the cessation-facilitating effects of future orientation may be primarily due to future oriented individuals' motivated and sustained involvement in the quit cycle over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pathways from childhood abuse to prospective revictimization: depression, sex to reduce negative affect, and forecasted sexual behavior.

PubMed

Miron, Lynsey R; Orcutt, Holly K

2014-11-01

Research suggests that adverse events in childhood, such as childhood physical, sexual, and emotional abuse, confer risk for later sexual assault. Psychological distress, coping strategies, and sexual behavior may help explain the path from childhood abuse to revictimization. The present study explored how the use of sex to regulate negative affect (SRNA) operates independently, and in combination with other psychosocial factors to increase college women's (N=541) risk of experiencing prospective adult sexual assault (ASA). Sequential multiple mediator models in Mplus were used to assess the effect of three different forms of childhood abuse on prospective ASA, both independently and while controlling for other forms of childhood abuse. The indirect effect of adolescent sexual assault (AdolSA), depressive symptoms, SRNA, and participants' response to a sex-related vignette was tested using bias-corrected bootstrapping. In the full path model, childhood emotional abuse and AdolSA predicted ASA, while childhood physical and sexual abuse were directly associated with AdolSA, but not ASA. Additionally, depressive symptoms and participants' estimate of their likely behavior in a sex-related vignette directly predicted prospective ASA. Results using bootstrapping revealed that a history of childhood abuse predicted prospective ASA via diverse direct and indirect paths, as well as through a similar multiple mediator path. Overall, findings suggest that a combination of affective, coping, and sexual expectancy factors contribute to risk for revictimization in adult survivors of childhood abuse. Future research directions and targets for risk-reduction programming are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pathways from Childhood Abuse to Prospective Revictimization: Depression, Sex to Reduce Negative Affect, and Forecasted Sexual Behavior

PubMed Central

Miron, Lynsey R.; Orcutt, Holly K.

2014-01-01

Research suggests that adverse events in childhood, such as childhood physical, sexual, and emotional abuse, confer risk for later sexual assault. Psychological distress, coping strategies, and sexual behavior may help explain the path from childhood abuse to revictimization. The present study explored how the use of sex to regulate negative affect (SRNA) operates independently, and in combination with other psychosocial factors to increase college women’s (N = 541) risk of experiencing prospective adult sexual assault (ASA). Sequential multiple mediator models in Mplus were used to assess the effect of three different forms of childhood abuse on prospective ASA, both independently and while controlling for other forms of childhood abuse. The indirect effect of adolescent sexual assault (AdolSA), depressive symptoms, SRNA, and participants’ response to a sex-related vignette was tested using bias-corrected bootstrapping. In the full path model, childhood emotional abuse and AdolSA predicted ASA, while childhood physical and sexual abuse were directly associated with AdolSA, but not ASA. Additionally, depressive symptoms and participants’ estimate of their likely behavior in a sex-related vignette directly predicted prospective ASA. Results using bootstrapping revealed that a history of childhood abuse predicted prospective ASA via diverse direct and indirect paths, as well as through a similar multiple mediator path. Overall, findings suggest that a combination of affective, coping, and sexual expectancy factors contribute to risk for revictimization in adult survivors of childhood abuse. Future research directions and targets for risk-reduction programming will be discussed. PMID:25455965

First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J.D.; Werner, M.J.; Field, E.H.; Jackson, D.D.; Jordan, T.H.

2010-01-01

The ability to successfully predict the future behavior of a system is a strong indication that the system is well understood. Certainly many details of the earthquake system remain obscure, but several hypotheses related to earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard have been proffered, and predicting earthquake behavior is a worthy goal and demanded by society. Along these lines, one of the primary objectives of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) working group was to formalize earthquake occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective earthquake rate forecasts in California. RELM members, working in small research groups, developed more than a dozen 5-year forecasts; they also outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform predictability experiments. Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide, and the RELM predictability experiment-a truly prospective earthquake prediction effort-is underway within the U. S. branch of CSEP. The experiment, designed to compare time-invariant 5-year earthquake rate forecasts, is now approximately halfway to its completion. In this paper, we describe the models under evaluation and present, for the first time, preliminary results of this unique experiment. While these results are preliminary-the forecasts were meant for an application of 5 years-we find interesting results: most of the models are consistent with the observation and one model forecasts the distribution of earthquakes best. We discuss the observed sample of target earthquakes in the context of historical seismicity within the testing region, highlight potential pitfalls of the current tests, and suggest plans for future revisions to experiments such as this one. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schorlemmer, Danijel; Zechar, J. Douglas; Werner, Maximilian J.; Field, Edward H.; Jackson, David D.; Jordan, Thomas H.

2010-08-01

The ability to successfully predict the future behavior of a system is a strong indication that the system is well understood. Certainly many details of the earthquake system remain obscure, but several hypotheses related to earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard have been proffered, and predicting earthquake behavior is a worthy goal and demanded by society. Along these lines, one of the primary objectives of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) working group was to formalize earthquake occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective earthquake rate forecasts in California. RELM members, working in small research groups, developed more than a dozen 5-year forecasts; they also outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform predictability experiments. Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide, and the RELM predictability experiment—a truly prospective earthquake prediction effort—is underway within the U.S. branch of CSEP. The experiment, designed to compare time-invariant 5-year earthquake rate forecasts, is now approximately halfway to its completion. In this paper, we describe the models under evaluation and present, for the first time, preliminary results of this unique experiment. While these results are preliminary—the forecasts were meant for an application of 5 years—we find interesting results: most of the models are consistent with the observation and one model forecasts the distribution of earthquakes best. We discuss the observed sample of target earthquakes in the context of historical seismicity within the testing region, highlight potential pitfalls of the current tests, and suggest plans for future revisions to experiments such as this one.

Executive Control Deficits as a Prodrome to Falls in Healthy Older Adults: A Prospective Study Linking Thinking, Walking, and Falling

PubMed Central

Herman, Talia; Mirelman, Anat; Giladi, Nir; Schweiger, Avraham

2010-01-01

Background. Executive function (EF) deficits may increase fall risk, even among older adults with no overt cognitive impairment. Indeed, the effects of dual tasking (DT) on gait, a challenge to executive control, are more exaggerated in persons with a history of falls. Prospective evidence is, however, lacking. Methods. We prospectively evaluated whether EF predicts falls over a 2-year period among 262 community-living, healthy, and well-functioning older adults, focusing on the 201 who reported no falls during the previous year. At baseline, participants completed a computerized cognitive battery that generated an index of EF and other cognitive domains. Gait was assessed using performance-based tests and by quantifying walking during single- and dual-task conditions. Results. The 262 participants (mean age: 76.3 ± 4.3 years, 60.3% women) had intact cognitive function on testing, a low comorbidity index, and good mobility. The EF index predicted future falls. Among those who reported no previous falls, participants in the worst EF quartile were three times more likely to fall during the 2 years of follow-up, and they were more likely to transition from nonfaller to faller sooner. DT gait variability also predicted future falls and multiple falls, whereas other measures of cognitive function, gait, and mobility did not. Conclusions. Among healthy older adults, individuals with poorer EF are more prone to falls. Higher-level cognitive functions such as those regulated by the frontal lobes are apparently needed for safe everyday navigation that demands multitasking. Optimal screening, early detection, and treatment of falls should, apparently, also target this cognitive domain. PMID:20484336

Does children's screen time predict requests for advertised products? Cross-sectional and prospective analyses.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Lisa J; Wang, Yun; Robinson, Thomas N

2006-04-01

To examine children's screen media exposure and requests for advertised toys and food/drinks. Prospective cohort study. Twelve elementary schools in northern California. Eight hundred twenty-seven third grade children participated at baseline; 386 students in 6 schools were followed up for 20 months. None. Child self-reported requests for advertised toys and foods/drinks. At baseline, children's screen media time was significantly associated with concurrent requests for advertised toys (Spearman r = 0.15 [TV viewing] and r = 0.20 [total screen time]; both P<.001) and foods/drinks (Spearman r = 0.16 [TV viewing] and r = 0.18 [total screen time]; both P<.001). In prospective analysis, children's screen media time at baseline was significantly associated with their mean number of toy requests 7 to 20 months later (Spearman r = 0.21 [TV viewing] and r = 0.24 [total screen time]; both P<.001) and foods/drinks requests (Spearman r = 0.14 [TV viewing] and r = 0.16 [total screen time]; both P<.01). After adjusting for baseline requests and sociodemographic variables, the relationship between screen media exposure and future requests for advertised foods/drinks remained significant for total TV viewing and total screen media exposure. The relationship with future requests for toys remained significant for total screen media exposure. Screen media exposure is a prospective risk factor for children's requests for advertised products. Future experimental studies on children's health- and consumer-related outcomes are warranted.

Application of fuzzy logic and fuzzy AHP to mineral prospectivity mapping of porphyry and hydrothermal vein copper deposits in the Dananhu-Tousuquan island arc, Xinjiang, NW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Nannan; Zhou, Kefa; Du, Xishihui

2017-04-01

Mineral prospectivity mapping (MPM) is a multi-step process that ranks promising target areas for further exploration. Fuzzy logic and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) are knowledge-driven MPM approaches. In this study, both approaches were used for data processing, based on which MPM was performed for porphyry and hydrothermal vein copper deposits in the Dananhu-Tousuquan island arc, Xinjiang. The results of the two methods were then compared. The two methods combined expert experience and the Studentized contrast (S(C)) values of the weights-of-evidence approach to calculate the weights of 15 layers, and these layers were then integrated by the gamma operator (γ). Through prediction-area (P-A) plot analysis, the optimal γ for fuzzy logic and fuzzy AHP was determined as 0.95 and 0.93, respectively. The thresholds corresponding to different levels of metallogenic probability were defined via concentration-area (C-A) fractal analysis. The prediction performances of the two methods were compared on this basis. The results showed that in MPM based on fuzzy logic, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.806 and 81.48% of the known deposits were predicted, whereas in MPM based on fuzzy AHP, the area under the ROC curve was 0.862 and 92.59% of the known deposits were predicted. Therefore, prediction based on fuzzy AHP is more accurate and can provide directions for future prospecting.

EVALUATING THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF SUICIDAL INTENT AND MEDICAL LETHALITY IN YOUTH

PubMed Central

Sapyta, Jeffrey; Goldston, David B.; Erkanli, Alaattin; Daniel, Stephanie S.; Heilbron, Nicole; Mayfield, Andrew; Treadway, S. Lyn

2012-01-01

Objectives To examine whether suicidal intent and medical lethality of past suicide attempts are predictive of future attempts, the association between intent and lethality, and the consistency of these characteristics across repeated attempts among youth. Method Suicide attempts in a 15-year prospective study of 180 formerly psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents (Mage at hospitalization = 14.83; 51% female; 80% Caucasian) were characterized using the Subjective Intent Rating Scale and Lethality of Attempt Rating Scale. Anderson-Gill recurrent events survival models and generalized estimating equations were used to assess predictive validity. Generalized linear models were used to examine stability of characteristics across attempts. Results Neither intent nor lethality from the most recent attempt predicted future attempts. The highest level of intent and most severe lethality of attempts during the follow-up predicted subsequent attempts, but the degree to which highest intent and most severe lethality contributed to prediction after considering methods of suicide attempts, past number of attempts, or psychiatric diagnoses was mixed. Across successive attempts, there was little consistency in reported characteristics. Intent and lethality were related to each other only for attempts occurring in early adulthood. Conclusions Highest intent and lethality were better predictors of future attempts than intent and lethality of the most recent attempt. However, these characteristics should only be considered as predictors within the context of other factors. For youth, clinicians should not infer true intent from the lethality of attempts, nor assume that characteristics of future suicide attempts will be similar to previous attempts. PMID:22250854

Prospective and retrospective episodic metamemory in posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Sacher, Mathilde; Tudorache, Andrei-Cristian; Clarys, David; Boudjarane, Mohamed; Landré, Lionel; El-Hage, Wissam

2018-03-14

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been consistently associated with episodic memory deficits. To some extent, these deficits could be related to an impairment of metamemory in individuals with PTSD. This research consequently aims at investigating prospective (feeling-of-knowing, FOK) and retrospective (confidence) metamemory judgments for episodic information in PTSD. Twenty participants with PTSD and without depression were compared to 30 healthy comparison participants on metamemory judgments during an episodic memory task. The concordance between metamemory judgments and recognition performance was then assessed by gamma correlations. The results confirmed that PTSD is associated with episodic memory impairment. Regarding metamemory, gamma correlations indicated that participants with PTSD failed to accurately predict their future memory performance as compared to the comparison group (mean FOK gamma correlations: .23 vs. .42, respectively). Furthermore, participants with PTSD made less accurate confidence judgments than comparison participants (mean confidence gamma correlations: .62 vs. .74, respectively). Our results demonstrate an alteration of both prospective and retrospective metamemory processes in PTSD, which could be of particular relevance to future therapeutic interventions focusing on metacognitive strategies.

Ceramic thermal barrier coatings for commercial gas turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meier, Susan Manning; Gupta, Dinesh K.; Sheffler, Keith D.

1991-01-01

The paper provides an overview of the short history, current status, and future prospects of ceramic thermal barrier coatings for gas turbine engines. Particular attention is given to plasma-sprayed and electron beam-physical vapor deposited yttria-stabilized (7 wt pct Y2O3) zirconia systems. Recent advances include improvements in the spallation life of thermal barrier coatings, improved bond coat composition and spraying techniques, and improved component design. The discussion also covers field experience, life prediction modeling, and future directions in ceramic coatings in relation to gas turbine engine design.

Predictors of future anabolic androgenic steroid use.

PubMed

Wichstrøm, Lars

2006-09-01

To prospectively study the stability of anabolic androgenic steroid (AAS) use and predictors of AAS use, and to investigate whether AAS use alters the risk of later emotional and behavioral problems. Survey of a national sample of Norwegian high school students (age 15-19) in 1994 followed up in 1999 (N = 2924). Measures of frequent alcohol intoxication (50+ times per 12 months), cannabis use (12 months), hard drug use (12 months), being offered cannabis, eating problems, conduct problems, sexual debut before age 15, BMI, involvement in power sports, perceived physical appearance, and satisfaction with body parts were obtained. Life-time prevalence of AAS use were 1.9 and 0.8% in the follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that future AAS use was predicted by young age, male gender, previous AAS use, involvement in power sports, and frequent alcohol intoxication. AAS use did not predict future emotional or behavioral problems other than reducing the risk of future frequent alcohol intoxication. Frequent alcohol intoxication and involvement in power sports appear to predict future AAS use. At the population level there was little stability in individual AAS use from adolescence to early adulthood. No detrimental effects of AAS use could be detected in this study, but low statistical power limits this conclusion.

Hot Academic Jobs of the Future: Try These Fields

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Lee

2009-01-01

At a time when the academic job market is looking bleak, the author asked career experts and economic forecasters to predict where faculty job growth could come in the next decade. Many agreed that job prospects will be dim because of budget cuts and diminishing faculty pension funds that have made professors less likely to retire. In addition,…

Workforce 2000, Silver Bullet or Dud?: Job Structure Changes and Economic Prospects for Black Males in the 1990s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mincy, Ronald B.

1991-01-01

Considers the report "Workforce 2000," a study supported by the U.S. Department of Labor, and assesses criticisms of the predictions it makes of a skills mismatch with no void for educated African-American males to fill. Implications of future labor supply and demand and potential interventions are discussed. (SLD)

Skill Acquisition and Use across the Life Course: Current Trends, Future Prospects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Bill

2007-01-01

People's life pathways are no longer as predictable as they were in the second half of the 20th century. It is no longer as simple as moving from school to work, probably via tertiary education, to living independently, then getting married and starting a family. Changes in how people combine education with life-course transitions will influence…

The future of satellite remote sensing: A worldwide assessment and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, G. W.

1984-01-01

A frame-work in which to assess and predict the future prospects for satellite remote sensing markets is provided. The scope of the analysis is the satellite-related market for data, equipment, and services. It encompasses both domestic and international markets and contains an examination of the various market characteristics by market segment (e.g., Federal Government, State and Local Governments, Academic Organizations, Industrial Companies, and Individuals) and primary applications areas (e.g., Geology, Forestry, Land Resource Management, Agriculture and Cartography). The forecasts are derived from an analysis of both U.S. and foreign market data. The evolution and current status of U.S. and Foreign markets to arrive at market growth rates is evaluated. Circumstances and events which are likely to affect the future market development are examined. A market growth scenario is presented that is consistent with past data sales trends and takes into account the dynamic nature of the future satellite remote sensing market. Several areas of current and future business opportunities available in this market are discussed. Specific worldwide forecasts are presented in three market sectors for the period 1980 to 1990.

Artificial neural networks in gynaecological diseases: current and potential future applications.

PubMed

Siristatidis, Charalampos S; Chrelias, Charalampos; Pouliakis, Abraham; Katsimanis, Evangelos; Kassanos, Dimitrios

2010-10-01

Current (and probably future) practice of medicine is mostly associated with prediction and accurate diagnosis. Especially in clinical practice, there is an increasing interest in constructing and using valid models of diagnosis and prediction. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are mathematical systems being used as a prospective tool for reliable, flexible and quick assessment. They demonstrate high power in evaluating multifactorial data, assimilating information from multiple sources and detecting subtle and complex patterns. Their capability and difference from other statistical techniques lies in performing nonlinear statistical modelling. They represent a new alternative to logistic regression, which is the most commonly used method for developing predictive models for outcomes resulting from partitioning in medicine. In combination with the other non-algorithmic artificial intelligence techniques, they provide useful software engineering tools for the development of systems in quantitative medicine. Our paper first presents a brief introduction to ANNs, then, using what we consider the best available evidence through paradigms, we evaluate the ability of these networks to serve as first-line detection and prediction techniques in some of the most crucial fields in gynaecology. Finally, through the analysis of their current application, we explore their dynamics for future use.

Prediction of future falls in a community dwelling older adult population using instrumented balance and gait analysis.

PubMed

Bauer, C M; Gröger, I; Rupprecht, R; Marcar, V L; Gaßmann, K G

2016-04-01

The role of instrumented balance and gait assessment when screening for prospective fallers is currently a topic of controversial discussion. This study analyzed the association between variables derived from static posturography, instrumented gait analysis and clinical assessments with the occurrence of prospective falls in a sample of community dwelling older people. In this study 84 older people were analyzed. Based on a prospective occurrence of falls, participants were categorized into fallers and non-fallers. Variables derived from clinical assessments, static posturography and instrumented gait analysis were evaluated with respect to the association with the occurrence of prospective falls using a forward stepwise, binary, logistic regression procedure. Fallers displayed a significantly shorter single support time during walking while counting backwards, increased mediolateral to anteroposterior sway amplitude ratio, increased fast mediolateral oscillations and a larger coefficient (Coeff) of sway direction during various static posturography tests. Previous falls were insignificantly associated with the occurrence of prospective falls. Variables derived from posturography and instrumented gait analysis showed significant associations with the occurrence of prospective falls in a sample of community dwelling older adults.

Suicide risk assessment: Trust an implicit probe or listen to the patient?

PubMed

Harrison, Dominique P; Stritzke, Werner G K; Fay, Nicolas; Hudaib, Abdul-Rahman

2018-05-21

Previous research suggests implicit cognition can predict suicidal behavior. This study examined the utility of the death/suicide implicit association test (d/s-IAT) in acute and prospective assessment of suicide risk and protective factors, relative to clinician and patient estimates of future suicide risk. Patients (N = 128; 79 female; 111 Caucasian) presenting to an emergency department were recruited if they reported current suicidal ideation or had been admitted because of an acute suicide attempt. Patients completed the d/s-IAT and self-report measures assessing three death-promoting (e.g., suicide ideation) and two life-sustaining (e.g., zest for life) factors, with self-report measures completed again at 3- and 6-month follow-ups. The clinician and patient provided risk estimates of that patient making a suicide attempt within the next 6 months. Results showed that among current attempters, the d/s-IAT differentiated between first time and multiple attempters; with multiple attempters having significantly weaker self-associations with life relative to death. The d/s-IAT was associated with concurrent suicidal ideation and zest for life, but only predicted the desire to die prospectively at 3 months. By contrast, clinician and patient estimates predicted suicide risk at 3- and 6-month follow-up, with clinician estimates predicting death-promoting factors, and only patient estimates predicting life-sustaining factors. The utility of the d/s-IAT was more pronounced in the assessment of concurrent risk. Prospectively, clinician and patient predictions complemented each other in predicting suicide risk and resilience, respectively. Our findings indicate collaborative rather than implicit approaches add greater value to the management of risk and recovery in suicidal patients. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Adolescents' thoughts about parents' jobs and their importance for adolescents' future orientation.

PubMed

Neblett, Nicole Gardner; Cortina, Kai Schnabel

2006-10-01

The current study examined the relation between adolescents' perceptions of their parents' jobs and their future orientation, and tested the role of parental support. Four hundred and fifteen ninth through twelfth graders were surveyed about their parents' job rewards, self-direction, and stressors, as well as their expectations for employment and education prospects. Results indicate that perceptions of parents' rewards, self-direction, and stress predict how positively or negatively adolescents perceive the future to be. Results also suggest that higher levels of parental support may weaken the association between perceptions and future orientation when adolescents perceive their parents experience unfavorable conditions at work. These results suggest that adolescents' perceptions of parents' jobs have implications for their preparation for adulthood.

Sakurai Prize: Extended Higgs Sectors--phenomenology and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunion, John

2017-01-01

The discovery of a spin-0 state at 125 GeV with properties close to those predicted for the single Higgs boson of the Standard Model does not preclude the existence of additional Higgs bosons. In this talk, models with extended Higgs sectors are reviewed, including two-Higgs-doublet models with and without an extra singlet Higgs field and supersymmetric models. Special emphasis is given to the limit in which the couplings and properties of one of the Higgs bosons of the extended Higgs sector are very close to those predicted for the single Standard Model Higgs boson while the other Higgs bosons are relatively light, perhaps even having masses close to or below the SM-like 125 GeV state. Constraints on this type of scenario given existing data are summarized and prospects for observing these non-SM-like Higgs bosons are discussed. Supported by the Department of Energy.

Use of a Short-Form Balance Confidence Scale to Predict Future Recurrent Falls in People With Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Cole, Michael H; Rippey, Jodi; Naughton, Geraldine A; Silburn, Peter A

2016-01-01

To assess whether the 16-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-16) and short-form 6-item Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC-6) could predict future recurrent falls in people with Parkinson disease (PD) and to validate the robustness of their predictive capacities. Twelve-month prospective cohort study. General community. People with idiopathic PD (N=79). Clinical tests were conducted to assess symptom severity, balance confidence, and medical history. Over the subsequent 12 months, participants recorded any falls on daily fall calendars, which they returned monthly by reply paid post. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses estimated the sensitivities and specificities of the ABC-16 and ABC-6 for predicting future recurrent falls in this cohort, and "leave-one-out" validation was used to assess their robustness. Of the 79 patients who completed follow-up, 28 (35.4%) fell more than once during the 12-month period. Both the ABC-16 and ABC-6 were significant predictors of future recurrent falls, and moderate sensitivities (ABC-16: 75.0%; ABC-6: 71.4%) and specificities (ABC-16: 76.5%; ABC-6: 74.5%) were reported for each tool for a cutoff score of 77.5 and 65.8, respectively. The results have significant implications and demonstrate that the ABC-16 and ABC-6 independently identify patients with PD at risk of future recurrent falls. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospective memory in schizophrenia: Relationship to medication management skills, neurocognition and symptoms in individuals with schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Raskin, S.; Maye, J.; Rogers, A.; Correll, D.; Zamroziewicz, M.; Kurtz, M.

2014-01-01

Objective Impaired adherence to medication regimens is a serious concern for individuals with schizophrenia linked to relapse and poorer outcomes. One possible reason for poor adherence to medication is poor ability to remember future intentions, labeled prospective memory skills. It has been demonstrated in several studies that individuals with schizophrenia have impairments in prospective memory that are linked to everyday life skills. However, there have been no studies, to our knowledge, examining the relationship of a clinical measure of prospective memory to medication management skills, a key element of successful adherence. Methods In this study 41 individuals with schizophrenia and 25 healthy adults were administered a standardized test battery that included measures of prospective memory, medication management skills, neurocognition and symptoms. Results Individuals with schizophrenia demonstrated impairments in prospective memory (both time and event-based) relative to healthy controls. Performance on the test of prospective memory was correlated with the standardized measure of medication management in individuals with schizophrenia. Moreover, the test of prospective memory predicted skills in medication adherence even after measures of neurocognition were accounted for. Conclusions This suggests that prospective memory may play a key role in medication management skills and thus should be a target of cognitive remediation programs. PMID:24188118

Bidirectional Prospective Associations Between Cardiac Autonomic Activity and Inflammatory Markers.

PubMed

Hu, Mandy Xian; Lamers, Femke; Neijts, Melanie; Willemsen, Gonneke; de Geus, Eco J C; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2018-06-01

Autonomic nervous system (ANS) imbalance has been cross-sectionally associated with inflammatory processes. Longitudinal studies are needed to shed light on the nature of this relationship. We examined cross-sectional and bidirectional prospective associations between cardiac autonomic measures and inflammatory markers. Analyses were conducted with baseline (n = 2823), 2-year (n = 2099), and 6-year (n = 1774) data from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. To compare the pattern of results, prospective analyses with ANS (during sleep, leisure time, and work) and inflammation were conducted in two data sets from the Netherlands Twin Register measured for 4.9 years (n = 356) and 5.4 years (n = 472). Autonomic nervous system measures were heart rate (HR) and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA). Inflammatory markers were C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin (IL)-6. The Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety results showed that higher HR and lower RSA were cross-sectionally significantly associated with higher inflammatory levels. Higher HR predicted higher levels of CRP (B = .065, p < .001) and IL-6 (B = .036, p = .014) at follow-up. Higher CRP levels predicted lower RSA (B = -.024, p = .048) at follow-up. The Netherlands Twin Register results confirmed that higher HR was associated with higher CRP and IL-6 levels 4.9 years later. Higher IL-6 levels predicted higher HR and lower RSA at follow-up. Autonomic imbalance is associated with higher levels of inflammation. Independent data from two studies converge in evidence that higher HR predicts subsequent higher levels of CRP and IL-6. Inflammatory markers may also predict future ANS activity, but evidence for this was less consistent.

Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp; Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo; Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062

Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQsmore » prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.« less

Measuring childhood maltreatment to predict early-adult psychopathology: Comparison of prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports.

PubMed

Newbury, Joanne B; Arseneault, Louise; Moffitt, Terrie E; Caspi, Avshalom; Danese, Andrea; Baldwin, Jessie R; Fisher, Helen L

2018-01-01

Both prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports may be used to measure childhood maltreatment, though both methods entail potential limitations such as underestimation and memory biases. The validity and utility of standard measures of childhood maltreatment requires clarification in order to inform the design of future studies investigating the mental health consequences of maltreatment. The present study assessed agreement between prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports of childhood maltreatment, as well as the comparative utility of both reports for predicting a range of psychiatric problems at age 18. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally-representative birth cohort of 2232 children followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). Childhood maltreatment was assessed in two ways: (i) prospective informant-reports from caregivers, researchers, and clinicians when children were aged 5, 7, 10 and 12; and (ii) retrospective self-reports of maltreatment experiences occurring up to age 12, obtained at age 18 using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Participants were privately interviewed at age 18 concerning several psychiatric problems including depression, anxiety, self-injury, alcohol/cannabis dependence, and conduct disorder. There was only slight to fair agreement between prospective and retrospective reports of childhood maltreatment (all Kappa's ≤ 0.31). Both prospective and retrospective reports of maltreatment were associated with age-18 psychiatric problems, though the strongest associations were found when maltreatment was retrospectively self-reported. These findings indicate that prospective and retrospective reports of childhood maltreatment capture largely non-overlapping groups of individuals. Young adults who recall being maltreated have a particularly elevated risk for psychopathology. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

No food for thought: moderating effects of delay discounting and future time perspective on the relation between income and food insecurity.

PubMed

Epstein, Leonard H; Jankowiak, Noelle; Lin, Henry; Paluch, Rocco; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Bickel, Warren K

2014-09-01

Low income is related to food insecurity, and research has suggested that a scarcity of resources associated with low income can shift attention to the present, thereby discounting the future. We tested whether attending to the present and discounting the future may moderate the influence of income on food insecurity. Delay discounting and measures of future time perspective (Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, Consideration of Future Consequences Scale, time period of financial planning, and subjective probability of living to age 75 y) were studied as moderators of the relation between income and food insecurity in a diverse sample of 975 adults, 31.8% of whom experienced some degree of food insecurity. Income, financial planning, subjective probability of living to age 75 y, and delay discounting predicted food insecurity as well as individuals who were high in food insecurity. Three-way interactions showed that delay discounting interacted with financial planning and income to predict food insecurity (P = 0.003). At lower levels of income, food insecurity was lowest for subjects who had good financial planning skills and did not discount the future, whereas having good financial skills and discounting the future had minimal influence on food insecurity. The same 3-way interaction was observed when high food insecurity was predicted (P = 0.008). Because of the role of scarce resources on narrowing attention and reducing prospective thinking, research should address whether modifying future orientation may reduce food insecurity even in the face of diminishing financial resources. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Metamemory prediction accuracy for simple prospective and retrospective memory tasks in 5-year-old children.

PubMed

Kvavilashvili, Lia; Ford, Ruth M

2014-11-01

It is well documented that young children greatly overestimate their performance on tests of retrospective memory (RM), but the current investigation is the first to examine children's prediction accuracy for prospective memory (PM). Three studies were conducted, each testing a different group of 5-year-olds. In Study 1 (N=46), participants were asked to predict their success in a simple event-based PM task (remembering to convey a message to a toy mole if they encountered a particular picture during a picture-naming activity). Before naming the pictures, children listened to either a reminder story or a neutral story. Results showed that children were highly accurate in their PM predictions (78% accuracy) and that the reminder story appeared to benefit PM only in children who predicted they would remember the PM response. In Study 2 (N=80), children showed high PM prediction accuracy (69%) regardless of whether the cue was specific or general and despite typical overoptimism regarding their performance on a 10-item RM task using item-by-item prediction. Study 3 (N=35) showed that children were prone to overestimate RM even when asked about their ability to recall a single item-the mole's unusual name. In light of these findings, we consider possible reasons for children's impressive PM prediction accuracy, including the potential involvement of future thinking in performance predictions and PM. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.

PubMed

Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

2012-06-01

This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.

Association of testosterone levels and future suicide attempts in females with bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Sher, Leo; Grunebaum, Michael F.; Sullivan, Gregory M.; Burke, Ainsley K.; Cooper, Thomas B.; Mann, J. John; Oquendo, Maria A.

2015-01-01

Background Considerable evidence suggests that testosterone may play a role in the pathophysiology of mood disorders in females. This is the first prospective study to examine whether blood testosterone levels predict suicide attempts in females with bipolar disorder. Methods Females with a DSM-IV diagnosis of a bipolar disorder in a depressive or mixed episode with at least one past suicide attempt were enrolled. Demographic and clinical parameters were assessed and recorded. Plasma testosterone was assayed using a double antibody radioimmunoassay procedure. Patients were followed up prospectively for up to 2.5 years. Results At baseline, testosterone levels positively correlated with the number of previous major depressive episodes and suicide attempts. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis found that higher baseline testosterone levels predicted suicide attempts during the follow-up period. Limitations A limitation of the study is that the sample size is modest. Another limitation is that we did not have a bipolar nonattempter or healthy volunteer control group for comparison. Conclusion Testosterone levels may predict suicidal behavior in women with bipolar disorder. PMID:25012416

Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS). Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP) and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow), are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in other settings: despite the continued medical focus on drugs for BP and cholesterol, high levels of BP and cholesterol have little predictive value of mortality in this elderly population. PMID:22694922

Psychological Factors Associated with Development of TMD: the OPPERA Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Fillingim, Roger B.; Ohrbach, Richard; Greenspan, Joel D.; Knott, Charles; Diatchenko, Luda; Dubner, Ronald; Bair, Eric; Baraian, Cristina; Mack, Nicole; Slade, Gary D.; Maixner, William

2013-01-01

Case-control studies have consistently associated psychological factors with chronic pain in general and with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) specifically. However, only a handful of prospective studies has explored whether pre-existing psychological characteristics represent risk factors for first-onset TMD. The current findings derive from the prospective cohort study of the Orofacial Pain Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) cooperative agreement. For this study, 3,263 TMD-free participants completed a battery of psychological instruments assessing general psychological adjustment and personality, affective distress, psychosocial stress, somatic symptoms, and pain coping and catastrophizing. Study participants were then followed prospectively for an average of 2.8 years to ascertain cases of first-onset of TMD, and 2,737 provided follow-up data and were considered in the analyses of TMD onset. In bivariate and demographically-adjusted analyses, several psychological variables predicted increased risk of first-onset TMD, including reported somatic symptoms, psychosocial stress, and affective distress. Principal component analysis of 26 psychological scores was used to identify latent constructs, revealing four components: stress and negative affectivity, global psychological and somatic symptoms, passive pain coping, and active pain coping. In multivariable analyses, global psychological and somatic symptoms emerged as the most robust risk factor for incident TMD. These findings provide evidence that measures of psychological functioning can predict first-onset of TMD. Future analyses in the OPPERA cohort will determine whether these psychological factors interact with other variables to increase risk for TMD onset and persistence. PMID:24275225

Long-term Recall of Time to Pregnancy.

PubMed

Jukic, Anne Marie Z; McConnaughey, D Robert; Weinberg, Clarice R; Wilcox, Allen J; Baird, Donna D

2016-09-01

Despite the widespread use of retrospectively reported time to pregnancy to evaluate fertility either as an outcome or as a risk factor for chronic disease, only two small studies have directly compared prospective data with later recall. The North Carolina Early Pregnancy Study (1982-1986) collected prospective time-to-pregnancy data from the beginning of participants' pregnancy attempt. In 2010, (24-28 years later) women were sent a questionnaire including lifetime reproductive history that asked about all prior times to pregnancy. Of the 202 women with prospective time-to-pregnancy data, 76% provided recalled time to pregnancy. A lower proportion of women with times to pregnancy ≥3 cycles provided a recalled time to pregnancy than women with times to pregnancy <3 cycles. Also, high gravidity or parity was associated with a lower likelihood of providing a recalled time to pregnancy. Women with very short or very long times to pregnancy (1 cycle or ≥13 cycles) had good recall of time to pregnancy. Positive predictive values of 1 or ≥13 cycles were 73% and 68%, respectively, while positive predictive values for other categories of time to pregnancy ranged from 38% to 58%. The weighted kappa statistic for recalled versus prospective time to pregnancy was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.79). Recalled time to pregnancy showed good agreement with prospective time to pregnancy. Informative missingness must be considered when imputing recalled time to pregnancy. Associations observed in future studies can be corrected for misclassification.

Limitations on scientific prediction and how they could affect repository licensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Konynenburg, R.A.

The best possibility for gaining an understanding of the likely future behavior of a high level nuclear waste disposal system is to use the scientific method. However, the scientific approach has inherent limitations when it comes to making long-term predictions with confidence. This paper examines some of these limiting factors as well as the criteria for admissibility of scientific evidence in the legal arena, and concludes that the prospects are doubtful for successful licensing of a potential repository under the regulations that are now being reconsidered. Suggestions am made for remedying this situation.

Depression and anxiety predict health-related quality of life in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Blakemore, Amy; Dickens, Chris; Guthrie, Else; Bower, Peter; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Afzal, Cara; Coventry, Peter A

2014-01-01

The causal association between depression, anxiety, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is unclear. We therefore conducted a systematic review of prospective cohort studies that measured depression, anxiety, and HRQoL in COPD. Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature [CINAHL], British Nursing Index and Archive, PsycINFO and Cochrane database) were searched from inception to June 18, 2013. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they: used a nonexperimental prospective cohort design; included patients with a diagnosis of COPD confirmed by spirometry; and used validated measures of depression, anxiety, and HRQoL. Data were extracted and pooled using random effects models. Six studies were included in the systematic review; of these, three were included in the meta-analysis for depression and two were included for the meta-analysis for anxiety. Depression was significantly correlated with HRQoL at 1-year follow-up (pooled r=0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.37-0.57, P<0.001). Anxiety was also significantly correlated with HRQoL at 1-year follow-up (pooled r=0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.48, P<0.001). Anxiety and depression predict HRQoL in COPD. However, this longitudinal analysis does not show cause and effect relationships between depression and anxiety and future HRQoL. Future studies should identify psychological predictors of poor HRQoL in well designed prospective cohorts with a view to isolating the mediating role played by anxiety disorder and depression.

The Value of Serum CA125 in the Diagnosis of Borderline Tumors of the Ovary: A Subanalysis of the Prospective Multicenter ROBOT Study.

PubMed

Fotopoulou, Christina; Sehouli, Jalid; Ewald-Riegler, Nina; de Gregorio, Nikolaus; Reuss, Alexander; Richter, Rolf; Mahner, Sven; Kommoss, Friedrich; Schmalfeldt, Barbara; Fehm, Tanja; Hanker, Lars; Wimberger, Pauline; Canzler, Ulrich; Pfisterer, Jacobus; Kommoss, Stefan; Hauptmann, Steffen; du Bois, Andreas

2015-09-01

The value of the serum tumor marker CA125 in borderline tumors of the ovary (BOTs) is not well defined, with unclear benefit in both diagnosis and follow-up. The aim of the present project was to identify the predictive value of CA125 for stage and relapse. CA125 data were extracted from the ROBOT multicenter study of patients with BOT treated between 1998 and 2008 in 24 German centers. While patients' data were retrieved retrospectively from hospital records and clinical tumor registries, follow-up and independent central pathology review were performed prospectively. We identified 127 patients from the ROBOT database fulfilling the eligibility criterion of available CA125 at initial diagnosis. Eighty-three (65.3%) patients had increased CA125 levels (>35 U/L). Of the patients, 85.0% presented with serous and 13.4% with mucinous BOT histology, whereas 29.9% had stage I disease. Fifteen (11.8%) patients experienced a relapse. Multivariate analysis identified raised CA125, young age, and serous histology as independent predictors of peritoneal implants of any type at initial presentation. Raised CA125 at initial diagnosis was, however, not an independent predictor of future relapse. Elevated CA125 seems to be associated with the presence of peritoneal implants of any type at initial diagnosis of serous BOT, but failed to have any independent predictive value on future relapse. Prospective multicenter studies are warranted to evaluate CA125 measurements in the follow-up management of BOT.

The future is now: prospective temporal self-appraisals among defensive pessimists and optimists.

PubMed

Sanna, Lawrence J; Chang, Edward C; Carter, Seth E; Small, Eulena M

2006-06-01

Three studies found that prospective temporal self-appraisals can be part of defensive pessimists' strategy; they felt closer to equally distant negative than positive futures. In Study 1, defensive pessimists felt closer to future failures and reported more negative affect than those considering success. In Study 2, when manipulated negative futures were close, defensive pessimists felt bad and performed well; results suggested that viewing negative futures as close may be part of their natural strategy. Study 3 found that prospective self-appraisals influenced performances through felt preparation. Optimists did not use prospective self-appraisals (Study 1) and their performances were unaffected by manipulated temporal distance (Studies 2 and 3). Discussion centers on prospective self-appraisals and multiple strategies of defensive pessimists.

Longevity of the Human Spaceflight Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gott, J. Richard

2007-02-01

The longevity of the human spaceflight program is important to our survival prospects. On May 27, 1993 I proposed a method for estimating future longevity, based on past observed longevity using the Copernican Principle: if your observation point is not special the 95% confidence level prediction of future longevity is between (1/39)th and 39 times the past longevity. The prediction for the future longevity of the human spaceflight program (then 32 years old) was greater than 10 months but less than 1248 years. We have already passed the lower limit. This Copernican formula has been tested a number of times, correctly predicting, among other things, future longevities of Broadway plays and musicals, and the Conservative Government in the United Kingdom. Recently, a study of future longevities of the 313 world leaders in power on May 27, 1993 has been completed. Assuming none still in office serve past age 100, the success rate of the 95% Copernican Formula is currently 94.55% with only one case (out of 313) left to be decided. The human spaceflight program has not been around long and so there is the danger its future will not be long enough to allow us to colonize off the earth. Policy implications are discussed. A smart plan would be to try to establish a self-supporting colony on Mars in the next 45 years. This should not require sending any more tons of material into space in the next 45 years than we have in the last 45 years.

Predicting Future Suicide Attempts among Depressed Suicide Ideators: A 10-year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

May, Alexis M.; Klonsky, E. David; Klein, Daniel N.

2012-01-01

Suicidal ideation and attempts are a major public health problem. Research has identified many risk factors for suicidality; however, most fail to identify which suicide ideators are at greatest risk of progressing to a suicide attempt. Thus, the present study identified predictors of future suicide attempts in a sample of psychiatric patients reporting suicidal ideation. The sample comprised 49 individuals who met full DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder and/or dysthymic disorder and reported suicidal ideation at baseline. Participants were followed for 10 years. Demographic, psychological, personality, and psychosocial risk factors were assessed using validated questionnaires and structured interviews. Phi coefficients and point-biserial correlations were used to identify prospective predictors of attempts, and logistic regressions were used to identify which variables predicted future attempts over and above past suicide attempts. Six significant predictors of future suicide attempts were identified – cluster A personality disorder, cluster B personality disorder, lifetime substance abuse, baseline anxiety disorder, poor maternal relationship, and poor social adjustment. Finally, exploratory logistic regressions were used to examine the unique contribution of each significant predictor controlling for the others. Co-morbid cluster B personality disorder emerged as the only robust, unique predictor of future suicide attempts among depressed suicide ideators. Future research should continue to identify variables that predict transition from suicidal thoughts to suicide attempts, as such work will enhance clinical assessment of suicide risk as well as theoretical models of suicide. PMID:22575331

Neutrino Flux Prediction for the NuMI Beamline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soplin, Leonidas Aliaga

2016-01-01

The determination of the neutrino flux in any conventional neutrino beam presents a challenge for the current and future short and long baseline neutrino experiments. The uncertainties associated with the production and attenuation of the hadrons in the beamline materials along with those associated with the beam optics have a big effect in the flux spectrum knowledge. For experiments like MINERvA, understanding the flux is crucial since it enters directly into every neutrino-nucleus cross-sections measurements. The foundation of this work is predicting the neutrino flux at MINERvA using dedicated measurements of hadron production in hadron-nucleus collisions and incorporating in-situ MINERvAmore » data that can provide additional constraints. This work also includes the prospect for predicting the flux at other detectors like the NOvA Near detector. The procedure and conclusions of this thesis will have a big impact on future hadron production experiments and on determining the flux for the upcoming DUNE experiment.« less

Neutrino Flux Prediction for the NuMI Beamline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aliaga Soplin, Leonidas

2016-01-01

The determination of the neutrino flux in any conventional neutrino beam presents a challenge for the current and future short and long baseline neutrino experiments. The uncertainties associated with the production and attenuation of the hadrons in the beamline materials along with those associated with the beam optics have a big effect in the flux spectrum knowledge. For experiments like MINERvA, understanding the flux is crucial since it enters directly into every neutrino-nucleus cross-sections measurements. The foundation of this work is predicting the neutrino flux at MINERvA using dedicated measurements of hadron production in hadron-nucleus collisions and incorporating in-situ MINERvAmore » data that can provide additional constraints. This work also includes the prospect for predicting the flux at other detectors like the NOvA Near detector. The procedure and conclusions of this thesis will have a big impact on future hadron production experiments and on determining the fl ux for the upcoming DUNE experiment.« less

External validation of a simple clinical tool used to predict falls in people with Parkinson disease

PubMed Central

Duncan, Ryan P.; Cavanaugh, James T.; Earhart, Gammon M.; Ellis, Terry D.; Ford, Matthew P.; Foreman, K. Bo; Leddy, Abigail L.; Paul, Serene S.; Canning, Colleen G.; Thackeray, Anne; Dibble, Leland E.

2015-01-01

Background Assessment of fall risk in an individual with Parkinson disease (PD) is a critical yet often time consuming component of patient care. Recently a simple clinical prediction tool based only on fall history in the previous year, freezing of gait in the past month, and gait velocity <1.1 m/s was developed and accurately predicted future falls in a sample of individuals with PD. METHODS We sought to externally validate the utility of the tool by administering it to a different cohort of 171 individuals with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months following predictor assessment. RESULTS The tool accurately discriminated future fallers from non-fallers (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.83; 95% CI 0.76 –0.89), comparable to the developmental study. CONCLUSION The results validated the utility of the tool for allowing clinicians to quickly and accurately identify an individual’s risk of an impending fall. PMID:26003412

External validation of a simple clinical tool used to predict falls in people with Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Duncan, Ryan P; Cavanaugh, James T; Earhart, Gammon M; Ellis, Terry D; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Leddy, Abigail L; Paul, Serene S; Canning, Colleen G; Thackeray, Anne; Dibble, Leland E

2015-08-01

Assessment of fall risk in an individual with Parkinson disease (PD) is a critical yet often time consuming component of patient care. Recently a simple clinical prediction tool based only on fall history in the previous year, freezing of gait in the past month, and gait velocity <1.1 m/s was developed and accurately predicted future falls in a sample of individuals with PD. We sought to externally validate the utility of the tool by administering it to a different cohort of 171 individuals with PD. Falls were monitored prospectively for 6 months following predictor assessment. The tool accurately discriminated future fallers from non-fallers (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.83; 95% CI 0.76-0.89), comparable to the developmental study. The results validated the utility of the tool for allowing clinicians to quickly and accurately identify an individual's risk of an impending fall. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective study of risk factors for suicidal behavior in individuals with anxiety disorders.

PubMed

Uebelacker, L A; Weisberg, R; Millman, M; Yen, S; Keller, M

2013-07-01

Anxiety disorders are very common and increase risk for suicide attempts. Little is known about predictors of increased risk specifically among individuals with anxiety disorders. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether specific anxiety disorders and other co-morbid psychiatric disorders, physical health, or work or social functioning increased the future likelihood of a suicide attempts among individuals with anxiety disorders. Method In this prospective study, 676 individuals with an anxiety disorder were followed for an average of 12 years. As hypothesized, we found that post-traumatic stress disorder, major depressive disorder (MDD), intermittent depressive disorder (IDD), epilepsy, pain, and poor work and social functioning all predicted a shorter time to a suicide attempt in univariate analyses. In multivariate analyses, baseline MDD and IDD were independent predictors of time to suicide attempt, even when controlling for a past history of suicide attempt. No specific anxiety disorder was an independent predictor of time to attempt in this anxiety-disordered sample. Adding baseline physical health variables and social functioning did not improve the ability of the model to predict time to suicide attempt. Mood disorders and past history of suicide attempts are the most powerful predictors of a future suicide attempt in this sample of individuals, all of whom have an anxiety disorder.

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia during worry forecasts stress-related increases in psychological distress.

PubMed

Gouin, Jean-Philippe; Deschênes, Sonya S; Dugas, Michel J

2014-09-01

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) has been conceptualized as an index of emotion regulation abilities. Although resting RSA has been associated with both concurrent and prospective affective responses to stress, the impact of RSA reactivity on emotional responses to stress is inconsistent across studies. The type of emotional stimuli used to elicit these phasic RSA responses may influence the adaptive value of RSA reactivity. We propose that RSA reactivity to a personally relevant worry-based stressor might forecast future affective responses to stress. To evaluate whether resting RSA and RSA reactivity to worry inductions predict stress-related increases in psychological distress, an academic stress model was used to prospectively examine changes in psychological distress from the well-defined low- and high-stress periods. During the low-stress period, 76 participants completed self-report mood measures and had their RSA assessed during a resting baseline, free worry period and worry catastrophizing interview. Participants completed another mood assessment during the high-stress period. Results indicated that baseline psychological distress predicted larger decreases in RSA during the worry inductions. Lower resting RSA and greater RSA suppression to the worry inductions at baseline prospectively predicted larger increases in psychological distress from the low- to high-stress period, even after accounting for the impact of baseline distress on RSA. These results provide further evidence that RSA may represent a unique index of emotion regulation abilities in times of stress.

Escaping the impulse to immediate gratification: the prospect concept promotes a future-oriented mindset, prompting an inclination towards delayed gratification.

PubMed

Cheng, Ying-Yao; Shein, Paichi Pat; Chiou, Wen-Bin

2012-02-01

People's willingness to postpone receiving an immediate reward in order to gain additional benefits in the future, that is, a tendency to shallow delay discounting, is closely related to one's health, wealth, and happiness. We conducted two experiments investigating how the prospect concept can induce a future-oriented mindset and induce people to behave accordingly. We found that engaging in prospective imagery led the participants to focus on delayed utility over immediate utility in financial decisions (Experiment 1). Participants who received the prospect prime via a scrambled-sentence task decreased their desire to pursue hedonic activities for instant gratification (Experiment 2). Moreover, a state of future orientation mediated the effect of the prospect prime on measures of delayed gratification (Experiments 1 and 2). Thus, reminders of prospect may activate a mindset for future orientation by which delayed gratification is strengthened. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Effects of child interview tactics on prospective jurors' decisions.

PubMed

Johnson, Jonni L; Shelley, Alexandra E

2014-01-01

Although decisions in child sexual abuse (CSA) cases are influenced by many factors (e.g., child age, juror gender), case and trial characteristics (e.g., interview quality) can strongly influence legal outcomes. In the present study, 319 prospective jurors read about a CSA investigation in which the alleged victim was interviewed at a child advocacy center (CAC) or traditional police setting. The prospective jurors then provided legally relevant ratings (e.g., child credibility, interview quality, defendant guilt). Structural equation modeling techniques revealed that child credibility predicted greater confidence in guilt decisions and also mediated all associations with such decisions. Having fewer negative prior opinions and rating the interview as of better quality were associated with higher child credibility ratings. Mitigating factors (e.g., interview quality), as opposed to proxy indicators (e.g., participant gender), better predicted CSA case outcomes. Similar associations across groups (e.g., CAC interviews did not make child victims more or less credible) permit a tentative conclusion that CACs do not positively or negatively affect decisions made in hypothetical CSA cases. Ideas for future studies examining factors influencing decisions in CSA cases are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Occupational dreams, choices and aspirations: adolescents' entrepreneurial prospects and orientations.

PubMed

Schmitt-Rodermund, Eva; Vondracek, Fred W

2002-02-01

The present study examined possible early antecedents of entrepreneurship of 14-17-year-old 10th grade students (n=320). We hypothesized that Entrepreneurial Orientation (interest and self-efficacy), together with Willingness to Expend Effort, would be an important predictor of an adolescent's Entrepreneurial Prospects, i.e. prospects of becoming self-employed in the future. Furthermore, personality and the model of self-employed family were expected to predict the level of Entrepreneurial Orientation. The same relationships were investigated separately for students who were more or less willing to expend effort. Among students more willing to expend effort, levels of Entrepreneurial Orientation were higher for those who were conscientious, self-efficient, open to new experiences, and low in agreeableness. Among students less willing to expend effort, a high need for social recognition predicted higher levels of Entrepreneurial Orientation. In addition, parents' model for them was connected with lower levels of Entrepreneurial Orientation. A moderating effect of Willingness to Expend Effort was supported by the results for parents' model and need for social recognition. Copyright 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents.

Predicting Drinking Onset with Discrete-Time Survival Analysis in Offspring from the San Diego Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Trim, Ryan S.; Schuckit, Marc A.; Smith, Tom L.

2009-01-01

Previous research has shown that an early onset of drinking is associated with a range of problematic drinking outcomes in adulthood. However, earlier drinking is also linked to additional characteristics that themselves predict alcohol problems including male gender, a family history (FH) of alcoholism, age, race, parental alcoholism, depression symptoms, prior drug use, and conduct problems. This study tested the relationship between the age of first drink (AFD) and a range of risk factors that predict the onset of alcohol use. Participants were offspring from the San Diego Prospective Study (SDPS) who were at least 15 years old at the time of their most recent interview (n=147). Discrete-time survival analysis (DTSA) was used to relate multiple characteristics to the hazard function of alcohol onset across a relevant age range. The results demonstrated the predicted relationships to AFD for conduct problems, male gender, prior marijuana use, and a FH of alcoholism, even when these characteristics were estimated together. Furthermore, an interaction occurred such that offspring with both conduct problems and marijuana use were at substantially higher risk for alcohol use onset during this time period than would be predicted from the effect of these two risk factors alone. However, age at interview, ethnicity, parent education, and depressive symptoms did not predict the pattern of onset of drinking. Implications for future research and prevention efforts are discussed. PMID:19959300

Prospective test of the developmental propensity model of antisocial behavior: from childhood and adolescence into early adulthood.

PubMed

Lahey, Benjamin B; Class, Quetzal A; Zald, David H; Rathouz, Paul J; Applegate, Brooks; Waldman, Irwin D

2018-06-01

The developmental propensity model of antisocial behavior posits that several dispositional characteristics of children transact with the environment to influence the likelihood of learning antisocial behavior across development. Specifically, greater dispositional negative emotionality, greater daring, and lower prosociality-operationally, the inverse of callousness- and lower cognitive abilities are each predicted to increase risk for developing antisocial behavior. Prospective tests of key predictions derived from the model were conducted in a high-risk sample of 499 twins who were assessed on dispositions at 10-17 years of age and assessed for antisocial personality disorder (APD) symptoms at 22-31 years of age. Predictions were tested separately for parent and youth informants on the dispositions using multiple regressions that adjusted for oversampling, nonresponse, and clustering within twin pairs, controlling demographic factors and time since the first assessment. Consistent with predictions, greater numbers of APD symptoms in adulthood were independently predicted over a 10-15 year span by higher youth ratings on negative emotionality and daring and lower youth ratings on prosociality, and by parent ratings of greater negative emotionality and lower prosociality. A measure of working memory did not predict APD symptoms. These findings support future research on the role of these dispositions in the development of antisocial behavior. © 2017 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

The influence of speed abilities and technical skills in early adolescence on adult success in soccer: A long-term prospective analysis using ANOVA and SEM approaches

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Several talent development programs in youth soccer have implemented motor diagnostics measuring performance factors. However, the predictive value of such tests for adult success is a controversial topic in talent research. This prospective cohort study evaluated the long-term predictive value of 1) motor tests and 2) players’ speed abilities (SA) and technical skills (TS) in early adolescence. The sample consisted of 14,178 U12 players from the German talent development program. Five tests (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) were conducted and players’ height, weight as well as relative age were assessed at nationwide diagnostics between 2004 and 2006. In the 2014/15 season, the players were then categorized as professional (n = 89), semi-professional (n = 913), or non-professional players (n = 13,176), indicating their adult performance level (APL). The motor tests’ prognostic relevance was determined using ANOVAs. Players’ future success was predicted by a logistic regression threshold model. This structural equation model comprised a measurement model with the motor tests and two correlated latent factors, SA and TS, with simultaneous consideration for the manifest covariates height, weight and relative age. Each motor predictor and anthropometric characteristic discriminated significantly between the APL (p < .001; η2 ≤ .02). The threshold model significantly predicted the APL (R2 = 24.8%), and in early adolescence the factor TS (p < .001) seems to have a stronger effect on adult performance than SA (p < .05). Both approaches (ANOVA, SEM) verified the diagnostics’ predictive validity over a long-term period (≈ 9 years). However, because of the limited effect sizes, the motor tests’ prognostic relevance remains ambiguous. A challenge for future research lies in the integration of different (e.g., person-oriented or multilevel) multivariate approaches that expand beyond the “traditional” topic of single tests’ predictive validity and toward more theoretically founded issues. PMID:28806410

Temporal distance and discrimination: an audit study in academia.

PubMed

Milkman, Katherine L; Akinola, Modupe; Chugh, Dolly

2012-07-01

Through a field experiment set in academia (with a sample of 6,548 professors), we found that decisions about distant-future events were more likely to generate discrimination against women and minorities (relative to Caucasian males) than were decisions about near-future events. In our study, faculty members received e-mails from fictional prospective doctoral students seeking to schedule a meeting either that day or in 1 week; students' names signaled their race (Caucasian, African American, Hispanic, Indian, or Chinese) and gender. When the requests were to meet in 1 week, Caucasian males were granted access to faculty members 26% more often than were women and minorities; also, compared with women and minorities, Caucasian males received more and faster responses. However, these patterns were essentially eliminated when prospective students requested a meeting that same day. Our identification of a temporal discrimination effect is consistent with the predictions of construal-level theory and implies that subtle contextual shifts can alter patterns of race- and gender-based discrimination.

Exclusive muon neutrino charged current pion-less topologies. ArgoNeuT results and future prospects in LAr TPC detectors

DOE PAGES

Palamara, Ornella

2016-12-29

Results from the analysis of charged current pion-less (CC 0-pion) muon neutrino events in argon collected by the ArgoNeuT experiment on the NuMI beam at Fermilab are presented and compared with predictions from Monte Carlo simulations. A novel analysis method, based on the reconstruction of exclusive topologies, fully exploiting the Liquid argon Time Projection Chamber (LAr TPC) technique capabilities, is used to analyze the events, characterized by the presence at the vertex of a leading muon track eventually accompanied by one or more highly ionizing tracks, and study nuclear effects in neutrino interactions on argon nuclei. Multiple protons accompanying themore » leading muon are visible in the ArgoNeuT events, and measured with a proton reconstruction threshold of 21 MeV kinetic energy. As a result, measurements of (anti-)neutrino CC 0-pion inclusive and exclusive cross sections on argon nuclei are reported. Prospects for future, larger mass LAr TPC detectors are discussed.« less

Liver Function Assessment Using Technetium 99m-Galactosyl Single-Photon Emission Computed Tomography/CT Fusion Imaging: A Prospective Trial.

PubMed

Okabayashi, Takehiro; Shima, Yasuo; Morita, Sojiro; Shimada, Yasuhiro; Sumiyoshi, Tatsuaki; Sui, Kenta; Iwata, Jun; Iiyama, Tatsuo

2017-12-01

The prediction of postoperative liver function remains a largely subjective practice based on CT volumetric analysis. However, future liver volume after a hepatectomy is not the only factor that contributes to postoperative liver function and outcomes. In this prospective trial, 185 consecutive patients who underwent liver operations between 2014 and 2015 were studied. Volumetric and functional rates of remnant liver were measured using technetium 99m-galactosyl human serum albumin single-photon emission computed tomography/CT fusion imaging to evaluate post-hepatectomy remnant liver function. Remnant indocyanine green clearance rate using galactosyl (KGSA) (KGSA × functional rate) was used to predict future remnant liver function. Hepatectomy was considered safe for patients with remnant KGSA values ≥0.05, and the primary end point was to determine the accuracy and reliability of this criteria. The prediction of the 90-day major complication and mortality rates was assessed. Median hospital stay was 9 days and median ICU stay was 1 day, with only 1 in-hospital death (90-day mortality rate 0.5%). Overall morbidity rate evaluated according to the Clavien-Dindo classification was 9%. For post-hepatectomy liver failure definitions, the International Study Group of Liver Surgery definition was fulfilled in 14 patients (8%), with the majority being grade B (50%), compared with 2 patients (1%) fulfilling the "50-50" criteria, and 0 patients (0%) fulfilling the Peak Bili >7 criteria. Results of this study showed that remnant KGSA provided information that allowed us to predict remnant liver function. This information will be important for surgeons when deciding on a treatment plan for patients with liver diseases. (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02013895). Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Dropout From Inpatient Substance Use Treatment: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Andersson, Helle Wessel; Steinsbekk, Aslak; Walderhaug, Espen; Otterholt, Eli; Nordfjærn, Trond

2018-01-01

Dropout from inpatient treatment for substance use disorder (SUD) is an ongoing challenge. The aim of this study was to identify demographic, substance use, and psychological factors that predict dropout from postdetoxification inpatient SUD treatment. A total of 454 patients from 5 inpatient SUD centers in Central Norway were consecutively included in this naturalistic, prospective cohort study. A total of 132 patients (28%) did not complete the planned treatment stay (dropped out). Cox regression analysis showed that higher levels of intrinsic motivation for changing personal substance use reduced the dropout risk (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR]: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.79). Higher levels of mental distress were associated with an increased risk for dropout (adjHR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.11-1.97). The role of mental health and motivation in reducing dropout risk from inpatient SUD treatment should be targeted in future prospective intervention studies.

Bone mineral content and areal density, but not bone area, predict an incident fracture risk: a comparative study in a UK prospective cohort.

PubMed

Curtis, E M; Harvey, N C; D'Angelo, S; Cooper, C S; Ward, K A; Taylor, P; Pearson, G; Cooper, C

2016-12-01

We studied a prospective UK cohort of women aged 20 to 80 years, assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at baseline. Bone mineral content (BMC) and areal bone mineral density (aBMD), but not bone area (BA), at femoral neck, lumbar spine and the whole body sites were similarly predictive of incident fractures. Low aBMD, measured by DXA, is a well-established risk factor for future fracture, but little is known about the performance characteristics of other DXA measures such as BA and BMC in fracture prediction. We therefore investigated the predictive value of BA, BMC and aBMD for incident fracture in a prospective cohort of UK women. In this study, 674 women aged 20-80 years, recruited from four GP practices in Southampton, underwent DXA assessment (proximal femur, lumbar spine, total body) between 1991 and 1993. All women were contacted in 1998-1999 with a validated postal questionnaire to collect information on incident fractures and potential confounding factors including medication use. Four hundred forty-three women responded, and all fractures were confirmed by the assessment of images and radiology reports by a research nurse. Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the risk of incident fracture, and the results are expressed as hazard ratio (HR) per 1 SD decrease in the predictor and 95% CI. Associations were adjusted for age, BMI, alcohol consumption, smoking, HRT, medications and history of fracture. Fifty-five women (12%) reported a fracture. In fully adjusted models, femoral neck BMC and aBMD were similarly predictive of incident fracture. Femoral neck BMC: HR/SD = 1.64 (95%CI: 1.19, 2.26; p = 0.002); femoral neck aBMD: HR/SD = 1.76 (95%CI: 1.19, 2.60; p = 0.005). In contrast, femoral neck BA was not associated with incident fracture, HR/SD = 1.15 (95%CI: 0.88, 1.50; p = 0.32). Similar results were found with bone indices at the lumbar spine and the whole body. In conclusion, BMC and aBMD appear to predict incident fracture with similar HR/SD, even after adjustment for body size. In contrast, BA only weakly predicted the future fracture. These findings support the use of DXA aBMD in fracture risk assessment, but also suggest that factors which specifically influence BMC will have a relevance to the risk of the incident fracture.

CP violation in the B system.

PubMed

Gershon, T; Gligorov, V V

2017-04-01

The phenomenon of CP violation is crucial to understand the asymmetry between matter and antimatter that exists in the Universe. Dramatic experimental progress has been made, in particular in measurements of the behaviour of particles containing the b quark, where CP violation effects are predicted by the Kobayashi-Maskawa mechanism that is embedded in the standard model. The status of these measurements and future prospects for an understanding of CP violation beyond the standard model are reviewed.

No food for thought: moderating effects of delay discounting and future time perspective on the relation between income and food insecurity1234

PubMed Central

Epstein, Leonard H; Jankowiak, Noelle; Lin, Henry; Paluch, Rocco; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Bickel, Warren K

2014-01-01

Background: Low income is related to food insecurity, and research has suggested that a scarcity of resources associated with low income can shift attention to the present, thereby discounting the future. Objective: We tested whether attending to the present and discounting the future may moderate the influence of income on food insecurity. Design: Delay discounting and measures of future time perspective (Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, Consideration of Future Consequences Scale, time period of financial planning, and subjective probability of living to age 75 y) were studied as moderators of the relation between income and food insecurity in a diverse sample of 975 adults, 31.8% of whom experienced some degree of food insecurity. Results: Income, financial planning, subjective probability of living to age 75 y, and delay discounting predicted food insecurity as well as individuals who were high in food insecurity. Three-way interactions showed that delay discounting interacted with financial planning and income to predict food insecurity (P = 0.003). At lower levels of income, food insecurity was lowest for subjects who had good financial planning skills and did not discount the future, whereas having good financial skills and discounting the future had minimal influence on food insecurity. The same 3-way interaction was observed when high food insecurity was predicted (P = 0.008). Conclusion: Because of the role of scarce resources on narrowing attention and reducing prospective thinking, research should address whether modifying future orientation may reduce food insecurity even in the face of diminishing financial resources. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02099812. PMID:25008855

Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

2016-01-01

The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections

PubMed Central

Ševčíková, Hana; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects. PMID:28077933

Antiangiogenic Therapy for Glioblastoma: Current Status and Future Prospects

PubMed Central

Batchelor, Tracy T.; Reardon, David A.; de Groot, John F.; Wick, Wolfgang; Weller, Michael

2014-01-01

Glioblastoma is characterized by high expression levels of pro-angiogenic cytokines and microvascular proliferation, highlighting the potential value of treatments targeting angiogenesis. Antiangiogenic treatment likely achieves a beneficial impact through multiple mechanisms of action. Ultimately, however, alternative pro-angiogenic signal transduction pathways are activated leading to the development of resistance, even in tumors that initially respond. The identification of biomarkers or imaging parameters to predict response and to herald resistance is of high priority. Despite promising phase 2 clinical trial results and patient benefit in terms of clinical improvement and longer progression-free survival, an overall survival benefit has not been demonstrated in 4 randomized phase 3 trials of bevacizumab or cilengitide in newly diagnosed glioblastoma or cediranib or enzastaurin recurrent glioblastoma. However, future studies are warranted: predictive markers may allow appropriate patient enrichment, combination with chemotherapy may ultimately prove successful in improving overall survival, and novel agents targeting multiple pro-angiogenic pathways may prove effective. PMID:25398844

Metabolite Profiles and the Risk of Developing Diabetes

PubMed Central

Wang, Thomas J.; Larson, Martin G.; Vasan, Ramachandran S.; Cheng, Susan; Rhee, Eugene P.; McCabe, Elizabeth; Lewis, Gregory D.; Fox, Caroline S.; Jacques, Paul F.; Fernandez, Céline; O’Donnell, Christopher J.; Carr, Stephen A.; Mootha, Vamsi K.; Florez, Jose C.; Souza, Amanda; Melander, Olle; Clish, Clary B.; Gerszten, Robert E.

2011-01-01

Emerging technologies allow the high-throughput profiling of metabolic status from a blood specimen (metabolomics). We investigated whether metabolite profiles could predict the development of diabetes. Among 2,422 normoglycemic individuals followed for 12 years, 201 developed diabetes. Amino acids, amines, and other polar metabolites were profiled in baseline specimens using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Cases and controls were matched for age, body mass index and fasting glucose. Five branched-chain and aromatic amino acids had highly-significant associations with future diabetes: isoleucine, leucine, valine, tyrosine, and phenylalanine. A combination of three amino acids predicted future diabetes (>5-fold higher risk for individuals in top quartile). The results were replicated in an independent, prospective cohort. These findings underscore the potential importance of amino acid metabolism early in the pathogenesis of diabetes, and suggest that amino acid profiles could aid in diabetes risk assessment. PMID:21423183

Metabolite profiles and the risk of developing diabetes.

PubMed

Wang, Thomas J; Larson, Martin G; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Cheng, Susan; Rhee, Eugene P; McCabe, Elizabeth; Lewis, Gregory D; Fox, Caroline S; Jacques, Paul F; Fernandez, Céline; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Carr, Stephen A; Mootha, Vamsi K; Florez, Jose C; Souza, Amanda; Melander, Olle; Clish, Clary B; Gerszten, Robert E

2011-04-01

Emerging technologies allow the high-throughput profiling of metabolic status from a blood specimen (metabolomics). We investigated whether metabolite profiles could predict the development of diabetes. Among 2,422 normoglycemic individuals followed for 12 years, 201 developed diabetes. Amino acids, amines and other polar metabolites were profiled in baseline specimens by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Cases and controls were matched for age, body mass index and fasting glucose. Five branched-chain and aromatic amino acids had highly significant associations with future diabetes: isoleucine, leucine, valine, tyrosine and phenylalanine. A combination of three amino acids predicted future diabetes (with a more than fivefold higher risk for individuals in top quartile). The results were replicated in an independent, prospective cohort. These findings underscore the potential key role of amino acid metabolism early in the pathogenesis of diabetes and suggest that amino acid profiles could aid in diabetes risk assessment.

Who Provides Care? A Prospective Study of Caregiving Among Adult Siblings

PubMed Central

Pillemer, Karl; Suitor, J. Jill

2014-01-01

Purpose: We use data from a longitudinal, within-family study to identify factors that predict which adult siblings assumed caregiving responsibilities to older mothers over a 7-year period. Design and Methods: Data for the study were collected from 139 older mothers at 2 points 7 years apart regarding their expectations and experiences of care from 537 adult children. Results: Children whom mothers identified at T1 as their expected future caregivers were much more likely to provide care when a serious illness occurred. Caregiving offspring were also more likely at T1 to have shared their mothers’ values, lived in proximity, and to be daughters. Implications: The findings indicate the degree to which a mother’s expectations for care predict actual caregiving by that child. Practitioners working with older adults should explore parents’ expectations for future care that involves their adult children. PMID:23840019

DNA methylation of loci within ABCG1 and PHOSPHO1 in blood DNA is associated with future type 2 diabetes risk.

PubMed

Dayeh, Tasnim; Tuomi, Tiinamaija; Almgren, Peter; Perfilyev, Alexander; Jansson, Per-Anders; de Mello, Vanessa D; Pihlajamäki, Jussi; Vaag, Allan; Groop, Leif; Nilsson, Emma; Ling, Charlotte

2016-07-02

Identification of subjects with a high risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) is fundamental for prevention of the disease. Consequently, it is essential to search for new biomarkers that can improve the prediction of T2D. The aim of this study was to examine whether 5 DNA methylation loci in blood DNA (ABCG1, PHOSPHO1, SOCS3, SREBF1, and TXNIP), recently reported to be associated with T2D, might predict future T2D in subjects from the Botnia prospective study. We also tested if these CpG sites exhibit altered DNA methylation in human pancreatic islets, liver, adipose tissue, and skeletal muscle from diabetic vs. non-diabetic subjects. DNA methylation at the ABCG1 locus cg06500161 in blood DNA was associated with an increased risk for future T2D (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.02-1.16, P-value = 0.007, Q-value = 0.018), while DNA methylation at the PHOSPHO1 locus cg02650017 in blood DNA was associated with a decreased risk for future T2D (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.75-0.95, P-value = 0.006, Q-value = 0.018) after adjustment for age, gender, fasting glucose, and family relation. Furthermore, the level of DNA methylation at the ABCG1 locus cg06500161 in blood DNA correlated positively with BMI, HbA1c, fasting insulin, and triglyceride levels, and was increased in adipose tissue and blood from the diabetic twin among monozygotic twin pairs discordant for T2D. DNA methylation at the PHOSPHO1 locus cg02650017 in blood correlated positively with HDL levels, and was decreased in skeletal muscle from diabetic vs. non-diabetic monozygotic twins. DNA methylation of cg18181703 (SOCS3), cg11024682 (SREBF1), and cg19693031 (TXNIP) was not associated with future T2D risk in subjects from the Botnia prospective study.

Do Executive Functions Predict Binge-Drinking Patterns? Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Bø, Ragnhild; Billieux, Joël; Gjerde, Line C.; Eilertsen, Espen M.; Landrø, Nils I.

2017-01-01

Background: Impairments in executive functions (EFs) are related to binge drinking in young adulthood, but research on how EFs influence future binge drinking is lacking. The aim of the current report is therefore to investigate the association between various EFs and later severity of, and change in, binge drinking over a prolonged period during young adulthood. Methods: At baseline, 121 students reported on their alcohol habits (Alcohol use disorder identification test; Alcohol use questionnaire). Concurrently, EFs [working memory, reversal, set-shifting, response inhibition, response monitoring and decision-making (with ambiguity and implicit risk)] were assessed. Eighteen months later, information on alcohol habits for 103 of the participants were gathered. Data were analyzed by means of multilevel regression modeling. Results: Future severity of binge drinking was uniquely predicted by performance on the Information sampling task, assessing risky decision-making (β = -1.86, 95% CI: -3.69, -0.04). None of the study variables predicted severity or change in binge drinking. Conclusion: Future severity of binge drinking was associated with making risky decisions in the prospect for gain, suggesting reward hypersensitivity. Future studies should aim at clarifying whether there is a causal association between decision-making style and binge drinking. Performance on all executive tasks was unrelated to change in binge drinking patterns; however, the finding was limited by overall small changes, and needs to be confirmed with longer follow-up periods. PMID:28408897

Detection prospects of the cosmic neutrino background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu-Feng

2015-04-01

The existence of the cosmic neutrino background (CνB) is a fundamental prediction of the standard Big Bang cosmology. Although current cosmological probes provide indirect observational evidence, the direct detection of the CνB in a laboratory experiment is a great challenge to the present experimental techniques. We discuss the future prospects for the direct detection of the CνB, with the emphasis on the method of captures on beta-decaying nuclei and the PTOLEMY project. Other possibilities using the electron-capture (EC) decaying nuclei, the annihilation of extremely high-energy cosmic neutrinos (EHECνs) at the Z-resonance, and the atomic de-excitation method are also discussed in this review (talk given at the International Conference on Massive Neutrinos, Singapore, 9-13 February 2015).

Prospective Memory in a Language-Trained Chimpanzee ("Pan Troglodytes")

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beran, Michael J.; Perdue, Bonnie M.; Bramlett, Jessica L.; Menzel, Charles R.; Evans, Theodore A.

2012-01-01

Prospective memory involves the encoding, retention, and implementation of an intended future action. Although humans show many forms of prospective memory, less is known about the future oriented processes of nonhuman animals, or their ability to use prospective memory. In this experiment, a chimpanzee named Panzee, who had learned to associate…

Rib fractures predict incident limb fractures: results from the European prospective osteoporosis study.

PubMed

Ismail, A A; Silman, A J; Reeve, J; Kaptoge, S; O'Neill, T W

2006-01-01

Population studies suggest that rib fractures are associated with a reduction in bone mass. While much is known about the predictive risk of hip, spine and distal forearm fracture on the risk of future fracture, little is known about the impact of rib fracture. The aim of this study was to determine whether a recalled history of rib fracture was associated with an increased risk of future limb fracture. Men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centres for participation in a screening survey of osteoporosis (European Prospective Osteoporosis Study). Subjects were invited to complete an interviewer-administered questionnaire that included questions about previous fractures including rib fracture, the age of their first fracture and also the level of trauma. Lateral spine radiographs were performed and the presence of vertebral deformity was determined morphometrically. Following the baseline survey, subjects were followed prospectively by annual postal questionnaire to determine the occurrence of clinical fractures. The subjects included 6,344 men, with a mean age of 64.2 years, and 6,788 women, with a mean age of 63.6 years, who were followed for a median of 3 years (range 0.4-5.9 years), of whom 135 men (2.3%) and 101 women (1.6%) reported a previous low trauma rib fracture. In total, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture during follow-up. In women, after age adjustment, those with a recalled history of low trauma rib fracture had an increased risk of sustaining 'any' limb fracture [relative hazard (RH)=2.3; 95% CI 1.3, 4.0]. When stratified by fracture type the predictive risk was more marked for hip (RH=7.7; 95% CI 2.3, 25.9) and humerus fracture (RH=4.5; 95% CI 1.4, 14.6) than other sites (RH=1.6; 95% CI 0.6, 4.3). Additional adjustment for prevalent vertebral deformity and previous (non-rib) low trauma fractures at other sites slightly reduced the strength of the association between rib fracture and subsequent limb fracture. In men, after age adjustment, there was a small though non-significant association between recalled history of rib fracture and future limb fracture. Our data highlight the importance of rib fracture as a marker of bone fragility in women.

Do subjective memory complaints herald the onset of mild cognitive impairment in Parkinson disease?

PubMed

Erro, Roberto; Santangelo, Gabriella; Barone, Paolo; Picillo, Marina; Amboni, Marianna; Longo, Katia; Giordano, Flavio; Moccia, Marcello; Allocca, Roberto; Pellecchia, Maria Teresa; Vitale, Carmine

2014-12-01

Longitudinal studies on healthy participants have shown that subjective memory impairment (defined as subjective cognitive complaints with normal cognitive objective performance) might be a strong predictor of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Parkinson disease (PD) also manifests cognitive disturbances, but whether subjective memory complaints may predict the development of MCI in PD has not yet been explored. We prospectively screened newly diagnosed, untreated patients with PD in order to evaluate whether subjective memory complaints may predict development of MCI over a 2-year follow-up evaluation. We enrolled 76 de novo untreated patients with PD. Of the 76 patients, 23 (30.3%) complained memory issues. Among the patients cognitively unimpaired at baseline, those with subjective complaints were more likely to develop MCI at follow-up. The regression model confirmed that presence of subjective memory complaints at baseline was an independent predictor of development of MCI at follow-up. This is the first prospective study to explore the relationship between subjective and objective cognitive deficits in newly diagnosed, untreated patients. Our results provide preliminary evidence that subjective memory complaints might predict future development of MCI. © The Author(s) 2014.

Body composition impacts appetite regulation in middle childhood. A prospective study of Norwegian community children.

PubMed

Steinsbekk, Silje; Llewellyn, Clare H; Fildes, Alison; Wichstrøm, Lars

2017-05-30

Research suggests a role for both fat mass and muscle mass in appetite regulation, but the longitudinal relationships between them have not yet been examined in children. The present study therefore aimed to explore the prospective relationships between fat mass, muscle mass and the appetitive traits food responsiveness and satiety responsiveness in middle childhood. Food responsiveness and satiety responsiveness were measured using the parent-reported Children's Eating Behavior Questionnaire in a representative sample of Norwegian 6 year olds, followed up at 8 and 10 years of age (n = 807). Body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance. Applying a structural equation modeling framework we found that higher fat mass predicted greater increases in food responsiveness over time, whereas greater muscle mass predicted decreases in satiety responsiveness. This pattern was consistent both from ages 6 to 8 and from ages 8 to 10 years. Our study is the first to reveal that fat mass and muscle mass predict distinct changes in different appetitive traits over time. Replication of findings in non-European populations are needed, as are studies of children in other age groups. Future studies should also aim to reveal the underlying mechanisms.

Future states: the axioms underlying prospective, future-oriented, health planning instruments.

PubMed

Koch, T

2001-02-01

Proscriptive planning exercises are critical to and generally accepted as integral to health planning at varying scales. These require specific instruments designed to predict future actions on the basis of present knowledge. At the macro-level of health economics, for example, a number of future-oriented Quality of Life Instruments (QL) are commonly employed. At the level of individual decision making, on the other hand, Advance Directives (AD's) are advanced as a means by which healthy individuals can assure their wishes will be carried out if at some future point they are incapacitated. As proscriptive tools, both instrument classes appear to share an axiomatic set whose individual parts have not been rigorously considered. This paper attempts to first identify and then consider a set of five axioms underlying future oriented health planning instruments. These axioms are then critiqued using data from a pre-test survey designed specifically to address their assumptions. Results appear to challenge the validity of the axioms underlying the proscriptive planning instruments.

A test of the vulnerability model: temperament and temperament change as predictors of future mental disorders - the TRAILS study.

PubMed

Laceulle, Odilia M; Ormel, Johan; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; van Aken, Marcel A G; Nederhof, Esther

2014-03-01

This study aimed to test the vulnerability model of the relationship between temperament and mental disorders using a large sample of adolescents from the TRacking Adolescents Individual Lives' Survey (TRAILS). The vulnerability model argues that particular temperaments can place individuals at risk for the development of mental health problems. Importantly, the model may imply that not only baseline temperament predicts mental health problems prospectively, but additionally, that changes in temperament predict corresponding changes in risk for mental health problems. Data were used from 1195 TRAILS participants. Adolescent temperament was assessed both at age 11 and at age 16. Onset of mental disorders between age 16 and 19 was assessed at age 19, by means of the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WHO CIDI). Results showed that temperament at age 11 predicted future mental disorders, thereby providing support for the vulnerability model. Moreover, temperament change predicted future mental disorders above and beyond the effect of basal temperament. For example, an increase in frustration increased the risk of mental disorders proportionally. This study confirms, and extends, the vulnerability model. Consequences of both temperament and temperament change were general (e.g., changes in frustration predicted both internalizing and externalizing disorders) as well as dimension specific (e.g., changes in fear predicted internalizing but not externalizing disorders). These findings confirm previous studies, which showed that mental disorders have both unique and shared underlying temperamental risk factors. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Leaving an Abusive Dating Relationship: A Prospective Analysis of the Investment Model and Theory of Planned Behavior.

PubMed

Edwards, Katie M; Gidycz, Christine A; Murphy, Megan J

2015-10-01

The purpose of the current study was to build on the existing literature to better understand young women's leaving processes in abusive dating relationships using a prospective design. Two social psychological models-the investment model and theory of planned behavior-were tested. According to the investment model, relationship continuation is predicted by commitment, which is a function of investment, satisfaction, and low quality of alternatives. The theory of planned behavior asserts that a specific behavior is predicted by an individual's intention to use a behavior, which is a function of the individual's attitudes toward the behavior, the subjective norms toward the behavior, and the individual's perceived behavioral control over the behavior. College women (N = 169 young women in abusive relatinships) completed surveys at two time points, approximately 4 months apart, to assess initially for the presence of intimate partner violence (IPV) in a current relationship and investment model and theory of planned behavior variables; the purpose of the 4-month follow-up session was to determine if women had remained in or terminated their abusive relationship. Path analytic results demonstrated that both the theory of planned behavior and investment models were good fits to the data in prospectively predicting abused women's stay/leave decisions. However, the theory of planned behavior was a better fit to the data than the investment model. Implications for future research and intervention are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting drinking onset with discrete-time survival analysis in offspring from the San Diego prospective study.

PubMed

Trim, Ryan S; Schuckit, Marc A; Smith, Tom L

2010-03-01

Previous research has shown that an early onset of drinking is associated with a range of problematic drinking outcomes in adulthood. However, earlier drinking is also linked to additional characteristics that themselves predict alcohol problems including male gender, a family history (FH) of alcoholism, age, race, parental alcoholism, depression symptoms, prior drug use, and conduct problems. This study tested the relationship between the age of first drink (AFD) and a range of risk factors that predict the onset of alcohol use. Participants were offspring from the San Diego Prospective Study (SDPS) who were at least 15 years old at the time of their most recent interview (n=147). Discrete-time survival analysis (DTSA) was used to relate multiple characteristics to the hazard function of alcohol onset across a relevant age range. The results demonstrated the predicted relationships to AFD for conduct problems, male gender, prior marijuana use, and a FH of alcoholism, even when these characteristics were estimated together. Furthermore, an interaction occurred such that offspring with both conduct problems and marijuana use were at substantially higher risk for alcohol use onset during this time period than would be predicted from the effect of these two risk factors alone. However, age at interview, ethnicity, parent education, and depressive symptoms did not predict the pattern of onset of drinking. Implications for future research and prevention efforts are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Predictive validity of the UKCAT for medical school undergraduate performance: a national prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tiffin, Paul A; Mwandigha, Lazaro M; Paton, Lewis W; Hesselgreaves, H; McLachlan, John C; Finn, Gabrielle M; Kasim, Adetayo S

2016-09-26

The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) has been shown to have a modest but statistically significant ability to predict aspects of academic performance throughout medical school. Previously, this ability has been shown to be incremental to conventional measures of educational performance for the first year of medical school. This study evaluates whether this predictive ability extends throughout the whole of undergraduate medical study and explores the potential impact of using the test as a selection screening tool. This was an observational prospective study, linking UKCAT scores, prior educational attainment and sociodemographic variables with subsequent academic outcomes during the 5 years of UK medical undergraduate training. The participants were 6812 entrants to UK medical schools in 2007-8 using the UKCAT. The main outcome was academic performance at each year of medical school. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was also conducted, treating the UKCAT as a screening test for a negative academic outcome (failing at least 1 year at first attempt). All four of the UKCAT scale scores significantly predicted performance in theory- and skills-based exams. After adjustment for prior educational achievement, the UKCAT scale scores remained significantly predictive for most years. Findings from the ROC analysis suggested that, if used as a sole screening test, with the mean applicant UKCAT score as the cut-off, the test could be used to reject candidates at high risk of failing at least 1 year at first attempt. However, the 'number needed to reject' value would be high (at 1.18), with roughly one candidate who would have been likely to pass all years at first sitting being rejected for every higher risk candidate potentially declined entry on this basis. The UKCAT scores demonstrate a statistically significant but modest degree of incremental predictive validity throughout undergraduate training. Whilst the UKCAT could be considered a fairly crude screening tool for future academic performance, it may offer added value when used in conjunction with other selection measures. Future work should focus on the optimum role of such tests within the selection process and the prediction of post-graduate performance.

Nonsuicidal self-injury in community adolescents: A systematic review of prospective predictors, mediators and moderators.

PubMed

Valencia-Agudo, Fatima; Burcher, Georgina Corbet; Ezpeleta, Lourdes; Kramer, Tami

2018-06-01

Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) usually starts during adolescence and is associated with an array of psychological and psychiatric symptoms and future suicide attempts. The aim of this study is to determine prospective predictors, mediators and moderators of NSSI in adolescent community samples in order to target prevention and treatment strategies. Two team members searched online databases independently. Thirty-nine studies were included in the review. Several variables were seen to prospectively predict NSSI: female gender, family-related variables, peer victimisation, depression, previous NSSI and self-concept. Few studies analysed mediators and moderators. Low self-concept was highlighted as a relevant moderator in the relationship between intra/interpersonal variables and NSSI. Implications of these findings are discussed. The considerable heterogeneity between studies posed a limitation to determine robust predictors of NSSI. Further prospective studies using standardised measures of predictors and outcomes are needed to ascertain the most at risk individuals and develop prevention strategies. Copyright © 2018 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-Perception Network and Default Mode Network Are Associated with Temporal Prediction in a Periodic Motion Task

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Fabiana M.; Chaim, Khallil T.; Sanchez, Tiago A.; de Araujo, Draulio B.

2016-01-01

The updating of prospective internal models is necessary to accurately predict future observations. Uncertainty-driven internal model updating has been studied using a variety of perceptual paradigms, and have revealed engagement of frontal and parietal areas. In a distinct literature, studies on temporal expectations have also characterized a time-perception network, which relies on temporal orienting of attention. However, the updating of prospective internal models is highly dependent on temporal attention, since temporal attention must be reoriented according to the current environmental demands. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to evaluate to what extend the continuous manipulation of temporal prediction would recruit update-related areas and the time-perception network areas. We developed an exogenous temporal task that combines rhythm cueing and time-to-contact principles to generate implicit temporal expectation. Two patterns of motion were created: periodic (simple harmonic oscillation) and non-periodic (harmonic oscillation with variable acceleration). We found that non-periodic motion engaged the exogenous temporal orienting network, which includes the ventral premotor and inferior parietal cortices, and the cerebellum, as well as the presupplementary motor area, which has previously been implicated in internal model updating, and the motion-sensitive area MT+. Interestingly, we found a right-hemisphere preponderance suggesting the engagement of explicit timing mechanisms. We also show that the periodic motion condition, when compared to the non-periodic motion, activated a particular subset of the default-mode network (DMN) midline areas, including the left dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and bilateral posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus (PCC/PC). It suggests that the DMN plays a role in processing contextually expected information and supports recent evidence that the DMN may reflect the validation of prospective internal models and predictive control. Taken together, our findings suggest that continuous manipulation of temporal predictions engages representations of temporal prediction as well as task-independent updating of internal models. PMID:27313526

Adaptive constructive processes and the future of memory.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L

2012-11-01

Memory serves critical functions in everyday life but is also prone to error. This article examines adaptive constructive processes, which play a functional role in memory and cognition but can also produce distortions, errors, and illusions. The article describes several types of memory errors that are produced by adaptive constructive processes and focuses in particular on the process of imagining or simulating events that might occur in one's personal future. Simulating future events relies on many of the same cognitive and neural processes as remembering past events, which may help to explain why imagination and memory can be easily confused. The article considers both pitfalls and adaptive aspects of future event simulation in the context of research on planning, prediction, problem solving, mind-wandering, prospective and retrospective memory, coping and positivity bias, and the interconnected set of brain regions known as the default network. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Prospective memory impairment and its implications for community living skills in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Au, Raymond W C; Ungvari, Gabor S; Lee, Edwin; Man, David; Shum, David H K; Xiang, Yu-Tao; Tang, Wai-Kwong

2013-12-01

Prospective memory (PM) refers to the ability to undertake intended actions in the future. The functional significance of PM in bipolar disorder (BD) has not yet been investigated. This study examined PM impairment and its role in community living skills in clinically stable individuals with BD. Seventy-six individuals with BD and 44 healthy individuals were assessed with the Chinese version of the Cambridge Prospective Memory Test. Socio-demographic characteristics, retrospective memory (RM; the ability to recall or recognize past information), and intelligence were also measured in all participants. The clinical condition and community living skills of patients with BD were rated independently with standardized instruments. Patients with BD showed PM impairment and their PM total scores independently predicted the level of community living skills in regression analyses. In follow-up analyses, the contribution was found to be accounted for by the time-based PM scores. Given the expanding body of research on the utility of PM in predicting functioning, these findings further support the role of PM in community living skills in individuals with BD. The results suggest that PM training might be an integral part of clinical rehabilitation devised for individuals with BD. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

PubMed

McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

2014-04-15

The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Present Surveying to Future Prospecting of the Asteroid Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, P. E.; Curtis, S. A.; Rilee, M.; Cheung, C.

2004-03-01

Requirements are analyzed for application of future mission architecture, the Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm (ANTS), to proposed in situ prospecting, of the asteroid belt, the Prospecting Asteroid Mission (PAM) as part of a NASA 2003 Revolutionary Aerospace Concept (RASC) study.

Background Predictors and Event-Specific Characteristics of Sexual Aggression Incidents: The Roles of Alcohol and Other Factors.

PubMed

Davis, Kelly Cue; Danube, Cinnamon L; Stappenbeck, Cynthia A; Norris, Jeanette; George, William H

2015-08-01

Sexual assault in the United States is an important public health concern. Using prospective longitudinal methods and responses from 217 community men, we examined whether background characteristics predicted subsequent sexual aggression (SA) perpetration during a 3-month follow-up period. We also examined event-specific characteristics of reported SA occurrences. Consistent with predictions, SA perpetration history, aggressive and impulsive personality traits, rape myth attitudes, and alcohol expectancies predicted SA (both non- and alcohol-involved) at follow-up. In addition, alcohol-involved assaults occurred more often with casual (vs. steady) partners but were more likely to involve condom use with casual (vs. steady) partners. Results suggest important avenues for future research and SA prevention efforts. © The Author(s) 2015.

Been there before? Examining "familiarity" as a moderator for discriminating between true and false intentions.

PubMed

Knieps, Melanie; Granhag, Pär A; Vrij, Aldert

2014-01-01

Prospection is thinking about possible future states of the world. Commitment to perform a future action-commonly referred to as intention-is a specific type of prospection. This knowledge is relevant when trying to assess whether a stated intention is a lie or the truth. An important observation is that thinking of, and committing to, future actions often evoke vivid and detailed mental images. One factor that affects how specific a person experiences these simulations is location-familiarity. The purpose of this study was to examine to what extent location-familiarity moderates how liars and truth tellers describe a mental image in an investigative interview. Liars were instructed to plan a criminal act and truth tellers were instructed to plan a non-criminal act. Before they could carry out these acts, the participants were intercepted and interviewed about the mental images they may have had experienced in this planning phase. Truth tellers told the truth whereas liars used a cover story to mask their criminal intentions. As predicted, the results showed that the truth tellers reported a mental image significantly more often than the liars. If a mental image was reported, the content of the descriptions did not differ between liars and truth tellers. In a post interview questionnaire, the participants rated the vividness (i.e., content and clarity) of their mental images. The ratings revealed that the truth tellers had experienced their mental images more vividly during the planning phase than the liars. In conclusion, this study indicates that both prototypical and specific representations play a role in prospection. Although location-familiarity did not moderate how liars and truth tellers describe their mental images of the future, this study allows some interesting insights into human future thinking. How these findings can be helpful for distinguishing between true and false intentions will be discussed.

Been there before? Examining “familiarity” as a moderator for discriminating between true and false intentions

PubMed Central

Knieps, Melanie; Granhag, Pär A.; Vrij, Aldert

2014-01-01

Prospection is thinking about possible future states of the world. Commitment to perform a future action—commonly referred to as intention—is a specific type of prospection. This knowledge is relevant when trying to assess whether a stated intention is a lie or the truth. An important observation is that thinking of, and committing to, future actions often evoke vivid and detailed mental images. One factor that affects how specific a person experiences these simulations is location-familiarity. The purpose of this study was to examine to what extent location-familiarity moderates how liars and truth tellers describe a mental image in an investigative interview. Liars were instructed to plan a criminal act and truth tellers were instructed to plan a non-criminal act. Before they could carry out these acts, the participants were intercepted and interviewed about the mental images they may have had experienced in this planning phase. Truth tellers told the truth whereas liars used a cover story to mask their criminal intentions. As predicted, the results showed that the truth tellers reported a mental image significantly more often than the liars. If a mental image was reported, the content of the descriptions did not differ between liars and truth tellers. In a post interview questionnaire, the participants rated the vividness (i.e., content and clarity) of their mental images. The ratings revealed that the truth tellers had experienced their mental images more vividly during the planning phase than the liars. In conclusion, this study indicates that both prototypical and specific representations play a role in prospection. Although location-familiarity did not moderate how liars and truth tellers describe their mental images of the future, this study allows some interesting insights into human future thinking. How these findings can be helpful for distinguishing between true and false intentions will be discussed. PMID:25071648

Drinking Status Between Ages 50 and 55 for Men From the San Diego Prospective Study Who Developed DSM-IV Alcohol Abuse or Dependence in Prior Follow-Ups.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Priscila Dib; Schuckit, Marc A; Smith, Tom L

2017-07-01

Although alcohol use disorders (AUDs) are prevalent among older individuals, few studies have examined the course and predictors of AUDs from their onset into the person's 50s. This study describes the AUD course from ages 50 to 55 in participants who developed AUDs according to criteria from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV), during the San Diego Prospective Study (SDPS). Among the 397 university students in the SDPS who were followed about every 5 years from age 20 (before AUD onset), 165 developed AUDs, 156 of whom were interviewed at age 55. Age 50-55 outcomes were compared regarding age 20-50 characteristics. Variables that differed significantly across outcome groups were evaluated using binary logistic regression analyses predicting each outcome type. Between ages 50 and 55, 16% had low-risk drinking, 36% had high-risk drinking, 38% met DSM-5 AUD criteria, and 10% were abstinent. Baseline predictors of outcome at ages 50-55 included earlier low levels of response to alcohol predicting DSM-5 AUDs and abstinence, higher drinking frequency predicting DSM-5 diagnoses and lower predicting low-risk drinking, higher participation in treatment and/or self-help groups predicting abstinence and lower predicting DSM-5 AUDs, later ages of AUD onset predicting high-risk drinking, and cannabis use disorders predicting abstinent outcomes. Despite the high functioning of these men, few were abstinent or maintained low-risk drinking during the recent 5 years, and 38% met DSM-5 AUD criteria. The data may be helpful to both clinicians and researchers predicting the future course of AUDs in their older patients and research participants.

Prospective memory: A comparative perspective

PubMed Central

Crystal, Jonathon D.; Wilson, A. George

2014-01-01

Prospective memory consists of forming a representation of a future action, temporarily storing that representation in memory, and retrieving it at a future time point. Here we review the recent development of animal models of prospective memory. We review experiments using rats that focus on the development of time-based and event-based prospective memory. Next, we review a number of prospective-memory approaches that have been used with a variety of non-human primates. Finally, we review selected approaches from the human literature on prospective memory to identify targets for development of animal models of prospective memory. PMID:25101562

Losing sight of the future: Impaired semantic prospection following medial temporal lobe lesions

PubMed Central

Race, Elizabeth; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2012-01-01

The ability to imagine the future (prospection) relies on many of the same brain regions that support memory for the past. To date, scientific research has primarily focused on the neural substrates of episodic forms of prospection (mental simulation of spatiotemporally specific future events) whereas little is known about the neural substrates of semantic prospection (mental simulation of future nonpersonal facts). Of particular interest is the role of the medial temporal lobes, and specifically the hippocampus. While the hippocampus has been proposed to play a key role in episodic prospection, recent evidence suggests that it may not play a similar role in semantic prospection. To examine this possibility, amnesic patients with medial temporal lobe (MTL) lesions were asked to imagine future issues occurring in the public domain. The results showed that patients could list general semantic facts about the future, but when probed to elaborate, patients produced impoverished descriptions that lacked semantic detail. This impairment occurred despite intact performance on standard neuropsychological tests of semantic processing, and did not simply reflect deficits in narrative construction. The performance of a patient with damage limited to the hippocampus was similar to that of the remaining MTL patients and amnesic patients’ impaired elaboration of the semantic future correlated with their impaired elaboration of the semantic past. Together, these results provide novel evidence from MTL amnesia that memory and prospection are linked in the semantic domain and reveal that the medial temporal lobes play a critical role in the construction of detailed, multi-element semantic simulations. PMID:23197413

Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

1978-01-01

Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

Electron cyclotron resonance sources: Historical review and future prospects (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, R.

1998-03-01

Low charge state electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS) work since 1965 and high charge state ECRIS since 1974. These ECR sources are categorized into three main sections: (1) Low charged ion (ECRIS) inside simple magnetic mirror or Bucket configurations. (2) High charged ion ECRIS inside min-B mirror configurations. (3) Short pulsed ECRIS with highly charged ions where the ion confinement is disturbed for a short while, which allows the extraction of intense ion pulses. Future prospects are based on rational scaling of the magnetic confinement including high B modes, by increasing the radio frequency (rf) frequency and ECR magnetic field. In this case, charge exchange has to be minimized and plasma instabilities have to be avoided. However, clever empirical tricks lead also to outstanding not always predicted improvements. Let us cite: optimized rf plasma coupling, electron guns, gas mixing, wall coating, biased electrodes, and more recently multiple ECR frequency heating. ECRIS have not yet achieved their optimal possibilities. Let us wait for the next generation of superconducting ECRIS and the possible use of subcentimeter waves.

Electron cyclotron resonance sources: Historical review and future prospects (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geller, R.

1998-02-01

Low charge state electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS) work since 1965 and high charge state ECRIS since 1974. These ECR sources are categorized into three main sections: (1) Low charged ion (ECRIS) inside simple magnetic mirror or Bucket configurations. (2) High charged ion ECRIS inside min-B mirror configurations. (3) Short pulsed ECRIS with highly charged ions where the ion confinement is disturbed for a short while, which allows the extraction of intense ion pulses. Future prospects are based on rational scaling of the magnetic confinement including high B modes, by increasing the radio frequency (rf) frequency and ECR magnetic field. In this case, charge exchange has to be minimized and plasma instabilities have to be avoided. However, clever empirical tricks lead also to outstanding not always predicted improvements. Let us cite: optimized rf plasma coupling, electron guns, gas mixing, wall coating, biased electrodes, and more recently multiple ECR frequency heating. ECRIS have not yet achieved their optimal possibilities. Let us wait for the next generation of superconducting ECRIS and the possible use of subcentimeter waves.

Predictors of Dropout From Inpatient Substance Use Treatment: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Andersson, Helle Wessel; Steinsbekk, Aslak; Walderhaug, Espen; Otterholt, Eli; Nordfjærn, Trond

2018-01-01

Introduction: Dropout from inpatient treatment for substance use disorder (SUD) is an ongoing challenge. The aim of this study was to identify demographic, substance use, and psychological factors that predict dropout from postdetoxification inpatient SUD treatment. Materials and methods: A total of 454 patients from 5 inpatient SUD centers in Central Norway were consecutively included in this naturalistic, prospective cohort study. Results: A total of 132 patients (28%) did not complete the planned treatment stay (dropped out). Cox regression analysis showed that higher levels of intrinsic motivation for changing personal substance use reduced the dropout risk (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR]: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48-0.79). Higher levels of mental distress were associated with an increased risk for dropout (adjHR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.11-1.97). Conclusions: The role of mental health and motivation in reducing dropout risk from inpatient SUD treatment should be targeted in future prospective intervention studies. PMID:29531472

How Adolescents Construct Their Future: The Effect of Loneliness on Future Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seginer, Rachel; Lilach, Efrat

2004-01-01

This study examined the effect of loneliness, gender, and two dimensions of prospective life domains on adolescent future orientation. Future orientation was studied in four prospective domains: social relations, marriage and family, higher education and work and career. These domains are described in terms of two dimensions: theme (relational vs.…

Mobile Phone-Based Mood Ratings Prospectively Predict Psychotherapy Attendance.

PubMed

Bruehlman-Senecal, Emma; Aguilera, Adrian; Schueller, Stephen M

2017-09-01

Psychotherapy nonattendance is a costly and pervasive problem. While prior research has identified stable patient-level predictors of attendance, far less is known about dynamic (i.e., time-varying) factors. Identifying dynamic predictors can clarify how clinical states relate to psychotherapy attendance and inform effective "just-in-time" interventions to promote attendance. The present study examines whether daily mood, as measured by responses to automated mobile phone-based text messages, prospectively predicts attendance in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Fifty-six Spanish-speaking Latino patients with elevated depressive symptoms (46 women, mean age=50.92years, SD=10.90years), enrolled in a manualized program of group CBT, received daily automated mood-monitoring text messages. Patients' daily mood ratings, message response rate, and delay in responding were recorded. Patients' self-reported mood the day prior to a scheduled psychotherapy session significantly predicted attendance, even after controlling for patients' prior attendance history and age (OR=1.33, 95% CI [1.04, 1.70], p=.02). Positive mood corresponded to a greater likelihood of attendance. Our results demonstrate the clinical utility of automated mood-monitoring text messages in predicting attendance. These results underscore the value of text messaging, and other mobile technologies, as adjuncts to psychotherapy. Future work should explore the use of such monitoring to guide interventions to increase attendance, and ultimately the efficacy of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

PubMed

Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

2014-05-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

Body mass index influences infliximab post-infusion levels and correlates with prospective loss of response to the drug in a cohort of inflammatory bowel disease patients under maintenance therapy with Infliximab.

PubMed

Scaldaferri, Franco; D'Ambrosio, Daria; Holleran, Grainne; Poscia, Andrea; Petito, Valentina; Lopetuso, Loris; Graziani, Cristina; Laterza, Lucrezia; Pistone, Maria Teresa; Pecere, Silvia; Currò, Diego; Gaetani, Eleonora; Armuzzi, Alessandro; Papa, Alfredo; Cammarota, Giovanni; Gasbarrini, Antonio

2017-01-01

Infliximab is an effective treatment for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Studies differ regarding the influence of body mass index (BMI) on the response to infliximab, with the majority of studies indicating that increased BMI may be associated with a poorer response to Infliximab. However, the pharmacokinetic mechanisms causing this have not yet been reported. Examine the correlation between BMI/immunosuppressant use with clinical response, trough and post-infusion levels of infliximab, tumour necrosis factor-α(TNF-α) and anti-drug antibodies(ATI), and determine if these factors can predict future response. We collected serum from 24 patients receiving Infliximab before and 30 minutes following infusion. Clinical parameters were collected retrospectively and prospectively. ELISA measurements of infliximab, TNF-α and ATI were performed. We confirmed that patients with higher infliximab trough levels have a better response rate and that patients with an elevated BMI display a higher rate of loss of response (20%). Patients with a higher BMI had elevated post-infusion levels of infliximab. Additionally, the ratio of IFX/TNF-α trough levels correlated with clinical response to the following infusion. This study confirms that an elevated BMI is associated with a poorer response to infliximab. For the first time, we describe that a higher BMI correlates with higher post-infusion levels, however this does not correlate with a higher rate of response to the drug, suggesting that circulating drug levels do not correlate with tissue levels. Furthermore, in our small cohort of patients, we identified a possible predictive marker of future response to treatment which may be used to guide dose escalation and predict non-response to infliximab.

Low energy intake plus low energy expenditure (low energy flux), not energy surfeit, predicts future body fat gain12

PubMed Central

Yokum, Sonja; Stice, Eric

2016-01-01

Background: There is a paucity of studies that have prospectively tested the energy surfeit theory of obesity with the use of objectively estimated energy intake and energy expenditure in humans. An alternative theory is that homeostatic regulation of body weight is more effective when energy intake and expenditure are both high (high energy flux), implying that low energy flux should predict weight gain. Objective: We aimed to examine the predictive relations of energy balance and energy flux to future weight gain and tested whether results were replicable in 2 independent samples. Design: Adolescents (n = 154) and college-aged women (n = 75) underwent 2-wk objective doubly labeled water, resting metabolic rate, and percentage of body fat measures at baseline. Percentage of body fat was measured annually for 3 y of follow-up for the adolescent sample and for 2 y of follow-up for the young adult sample. Results: Low energy flux, but not energy surfeit, predicted future increases in body fat in both studies. Furthermore, high energy flux appeared to prevent fat gain in part because it was associated with a higher resting metabolic rate. Conclusion: Counter to the energy surfeit model of obesity, results suggest that increasing energy expenditure may be more effective for reducing body fat than caloric restriction, which is currently the treatment of choice for obesity. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02084836. PMID:27169833

Low energy intake plus low energy expenditure (low energy flux), not energy surfeit, predicts future body fat gain.

PubMed

Hume, David John; Yokum, Sonja; Stice, Eric

2016-06-01

There is a paucity of studies that have prospectively tested the energy surfeit theory of obesity with the use of objectively estimated energy intake and energy expenditure in humans. An alternative theory is that homeostatic regulation of body weight is more effective when energy intake and expenditure are both high (high energy flux), implying that low energy flux should predict weight gain. We aimed to examine the predictive relations of energy balance and energy flux to future weight gain and tested whether results were replicable in 2 independent samples. Adolescents (n = 154) and college-aged women (n = 75) underwent 2-wk objective doubly labeled water, resting metabolic rate, and percentage of body fat measures at baseline. Percentage of body fat was measured annually for 3 y of follow-up for the adolescent sample and for 2 y of follow-up for the young adult sample. Low energy flux, but not energy surfeit, predicted future increases in body fat in both studies. Furthermore, high energy flux appeared to prevent fat gain in part because it was associated with a higher resting metabolic rate. Counter to the energy surfeit model of obesity, results suggest that increasing energy expenditure may be more effective for reducing body fat than caloric restriction, which is currently the treatment of choice for obesity. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02084836. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Biomarkers Predictive of Exacerbations in the SPIROMICS and COPDGene Cohorts

PubMed Central

Keene, Jason D.; Jacobson, Sean; Kechris, Katerina; Kinney, Gregory L.; Foreman, Marilyn G.; Doerschuk, Claire M.; Make, Barry J.; Curtis, Jeffrey L.; Rennard, Stephen I.; Barr, R. Graham; Bleecker, Eugene R.; Kanner, Richard E.; Kleerup, Eric C.; Hansel, Nadia N.; Woodruff, Prescott G.; Han, MeiLan K.; Paine, Robert; Martinez, Fernando J.; O’Neal, Wanda K.

2017-01-01

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations are associated with disease progression, higher healthcare cost, and increased mortality. Published predictors of future exacerbations include previous exacerbation, airflow obstruction, poor overall health, home oxygen use, and gastroesophageal reflux. Objectives: To determine the value of adding blood biomarkers to clinical variables to predict exacerbations. Methods: Subjects from the SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study) (n = 1,544) and COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) (n = 602) cohorts had 90 plasma or serum candidate proteins measured on study entry using Myriad-RBM multiplex panels. We defined total exacerbations as subject-reported worsening in respiratory health requiring therapy with corticosteroids and/or antibiotics, and severe exacerbations as those leading to hospitalizations or emergency room visits. We assessed retrospective exacerbations during the 12 months before enrollment and then documented prospective exacerbations in each cohort. Exacerbations were modeled for biomarker associations with negative binomial regression including clinical covariates (age, sex, percent predicted FEV1, self-reported gastroesophageal reflux, St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire score, smoking status). We used the Stouffer-Liptak test to combine P values for metaanalysis. Measurements and Main Results: Between the two cohorts, 3,471 total exacerbations (1,044 severe) were reported. We identified biomarkers within each cohort that were significantly associated with a history of exacerbation and with a future exacerbation, but there was minimal replication between the cohorts. Although established clinical features were predictive of exacerbations, of the blood biomarkers only decorin and α2-macroglobulin increased predictive value for future severe exacerbations. Conclusions: Blood biomarkers were significantly associated with the occurrence of exacerbations but were not robust between cohorts and added little to the predictive value of clinical covariates for exacerbations. PMID:27579823

Prospective study of the evolution of blood lymphoid immune parameters during dacarbazine chemotherapy in metastatic and locally advanced melanoma patients.

PubMed

Mignot, Grégoire; Hervieu, Alice; Vabres, Pierre; Dalac, Sophie; Jeudy, Geraldine; Bel, Blandine; Apetoh, Lionel; Ghiringhelli, François

2014-01-01

The importance of immune responses in the control of melanoma growth is well known. However, the implication of these antitumor immune responses in the efficacy of dacarbazine, a cytotoxic drug classically used in the treatment of melanoma, remains poorly understood in humans. In this prospective observational study, we performed an immunomonitoring of eleven metastatic or locally advanced patients treated with dacarbazine as a first line of treatment. We assessed by flow cytometry lymphoid populations and their activation state; we also isolated NK cells to perform in vitro cytotoxicity tests. We found that chemotherapy induces lymphopenia and that a significantly higher numbers of naïve CD4+ T cells and lower proportion of Treg before chemotherapy are associated with disease control after dacarbazine treatment. Interestingly, NK cell cytotoxicity against dacarbazine-pretreated melanoma cells is only observed in NK cells from patients who achieved disease control. Together, our data pinpoint that some immune factors could help to predict the response of melanoma patients to dacarbazine. Future larger scale studies are warranted to test their validity as prediction markers.

Sleep disturbances and fatigue: independent predictors of sickness absence? A prospective study among 6538 employees.

PubMed

Bültmann, Ute; Nielsen, Maj Britt D; Madsen, Ida E H; Burr, Hermann; Rugulies, Reiner

2013-02-01

Although sleep disturbances and fatigue are common conditions, frequently shown to be associated with sickness absence, only a few studies have prospectively investigated their independent effects on sickness absence, while adjusting for depressive symptoms. This study aims (i) to examine whether sleep disturbances and fatigue are independently related to the onset of register-based sickness absence of ≥ 3 weeks during a 1-year follow-up in a representative sample of the Danish workforce and (ii) to determine if possible associations are gender-specific. Data were used from the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study and linked with sickness absence data from the Danish National Register of Social Transfer Payments. A total of 6538 employees, 3178 men and 3360 women, were included in the analyses. Sleep disturbances predicted risk of sickness absence after adjustment for covariates, but lost statistical significance after further adjustment for depressive symptoms. Fatigue among men predicted risk of sickness absence [Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.25, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.00-1.56] after adjustment for covariates, depressive symptoms and sleep disturbances. Sleep disturbances in both genders and fatigue in women did not predict sickness absence after depressive symptoms were taken into account. In men, fatigue was significantly related to future sickness absence, also when adjusted for depressive symptoms and sleep disturbances. Further prospective studies are needed to explore the pathways from fatigue to sickness absence in more detail. The study suggests that early detection and treatment of fatigue in men should be high on the stakeholder's agenda.

Information about the US racial demographic shift triggers concerns about anti-White discrimination among the prospective White “minority”

PubMed Central

Richeson, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

The United States is undergoing a demographic shift in which White Americans are predicted to comprise less than 50% of the US population by mid-century. The present research examines how exposure to information about this racial shift affects perceptions of the extent to which different racial groups face discrimination. In four experiments, making the growing national racial diversity salient led White Americans to predict that Whites will face increasing discrimination in the future, compared with control information. Conversely, regardless of experimental condition, Whites estimated that discrimination against various racial minority groups will decline. Explorations of several psychological mechanisms potentially underlying the effect of the racial shift information on perceived anti-White discrimination suggested a mediating role of concerns about American culture fundamentally changing. Taken together, these findings suggest that reports about the changing national demographics enhance concerns among Whites that they will be the victims of racial discrimination in the future. PMID:28953971

Information about the US racial demographic shift triggers concerns about anti-White discrimination among the prospective White "minority".

PubMed

Craig, Maureen A; Richeson, Jennifer A

2017-01-01

The United States is undergoing a demographic shift in which White Americans are predicted to comprise less than 50% of the US population by mid-century. The present research examines how exposure to information about this racial shift affects perceptions of the extent to which different racial groups face discrimination. In four experiments, making the growing national racial diversity salient led White Americans to predict that Whites will face increasing discrimination in the future, compared with control information. Conversely, regardless of experimental condition, Whites estimated that discrimination against various racial minority groups will decline. Explorations of several psychological mechanisms potentially underlying the effect of the racial shift information on perceived anti-White discrimination suggested a mediating role of concerns about American culture fundamentally changing. Taken together, these findings suggest that reports about the changing national demographics enhance concerns among Whites that they will be the victims of racial discrimination in the future.

Prospective Teachers' Future Time Perspective and Professional Plans about Teaching: The Mediating Role of Academic Optimism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay

2012-01-01

This study aimed to examine the mediating role of prospective teachers' academic optimism in the relationship between their future time perspective and professional plans about teaching. A total of 396 prospective teachers voluntarily participated in the study. Correlation, regression, and structural equation modeling analyses were conducted in…

Determinants and definition of abdominal obesity as related to risk of diabetes, metabolic syndrome and coronary disease in Turkish men: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Onat, Altan; Uyarel, Hüseyin; Hergenç, Gülay; Karabulut, Ahmet; Albayrak, Sinan; Can, Günay

2007-03-01

We aimed to investigate determinants of abdominal obesity and its clinical impact on metabolic syndrome (MS), diabetes (DM) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in men. Prospective evaluation of 1638 male participants (aged 48.5+/-12.3), representative of Turkey's men who have a high prevalence of MS. For components of MS, criteria of NCEP guidelines were adopted, modified for abdominal obesity. Follow-up constituted 9650 person-years. Insulin level (relative risk [RR] 1.40 for doubling), C-reactive protein (CRP) and heavy smoking (protective) were independent predictors of newly developing abdominal obesity. High triglyceride and low HDL-cholesterol were significantly associated already with waist girth quartile II, apolipoprotein B with quartile III. Waist girth significantly predicted future MS from quartile II on, independent of insulin resistance (IR) by homeostatic model assessment, whereby its hazard ratio (HR, 2.6) exceeded double that of HOMA. CRP independently predicted MS. Age-adjusted HR of waist girth (1.59) was significant in predicting DM. Age- and smoking-adjusted top waist quartile conferred significant risk for incident CHD (RR 1.71) but not for overall mortality. As judged by sensitivity and specificity rates for future CHD, DM and MS, abdominal obesity was most appropriately defined with a waist girth of >or=95 cm, and an action level 1 of >or=87 cm was proposed for MS in this population. Serum insulin, CRP levels and (inversely) heavy smoking are predictors for abdominal obesity in Turkish men. Atherogenic dyslipidemia and elevated blood pressure are associated significantly already with modest rises in waist girth adjusted for age and smoking. Abdominal obesity shows substantial independence of IR in the development of MS. Increasing waist girth was predictive of MS, more strongly than of DM. Risk for CHD imparted by abdominal obesity is essentially mediated by risk factors it induces.

Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity—0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity—2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older people at risk of multiple falls. PMID:28222191

Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

PubMed

Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E

2017-01-01

Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older people at risk of multiple falls.

Prospective prediction of first lifetime suicide attempts in a multi-site study of substance users

PubMed Central

Trout, Zoë M.; Hernandez, Evelyn M.; Kleiman, Evan M.; Liu, Richard T.

2017-01-01

Although considerable empirical work has been devoted to identifying risk factors for suicide attempts, most longitudinal research has studied recurrent attempts rather than first lifetime attempts. The present study sought to examine prospective predictors of first lifetime suicide attempts among adults receiving treatment for substance use. Data were drawn from the National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study, a study of addiction treatment programs. Data were collected at treatment intake, treatment exit, and one year post-treatment. Patients (n = 3,518) with no lifetime history of suicide attempts at treatment intake were followed at treatment exit and one year post-treatment, when they reported on the occurrence of suicide attempts since the prior assessment. Prospective suicidal behavior was assessed using logistic regression in relation to sociodemographic variables, health-related work impariment, history of psychiatric treatment utilization, history of suicidal ideation, history of depressive symptoms, substance use, and childhood abuse, assessed at intake. Health-related work impairment, history of suicidal ideation, and childhood physical abuse significantly predicted first lifetime attempts in a multivariate analysis. Suicidal ideation, health-related functional impairments, and childhood physical abuse may be particularly important in assessing risk for first lifetime suicide attempts. Findings suggest that future clinical work and research would benefit from considering these factors when identifying individuals at heightened risk of making a first suicide attempt. PMID:27693980

Coming home: A prospective study of family reintegration following deployment to a war zone.

PubMed

Balderrama-Durbin, Christina; Cigrang, Jeffrey A; Osborne, Laura J; Snyder, Douglas K; Talcott, G Wayne; Slep, Amy M Smith; Heyman, Richard E; Tatum, JoLyn; Baker, Monty; Cassidy, Daniel; Sonnek, Scott

2015-08-01

The consequences of deployment extend beyond the service member to impact the entire family. The current investigation evaluated the unique challenges of family reintegration for partnered service members using a prospective design. In total, 76 partnered service members who deployed on a year-long, high-risk mission to Iraq were assessed across the entirety of the deployment cycle, i.e., pre-, during, and postdeployment. At follow-up, nearly 1 in 5 partnered service members reported moderate to severe difficulties in multiple aspects of family reintegration. Prospective interpersonal indicators such as preparations for deployment as a couple, shared commitment to the military, and predeployment relationship distress predicted postdeployment family reintegration difficulties. Significant interpersonal risk factors were medium to large in their effect sizes. Airmen's willingness to disclose deployment- and combat-related experiences, and postdeployment relationship distress served as concurrent interpersonal correlates of difficulties with family reintegration. Intrapersonal factors, including posttraumatic stress symptoms and alcohol misuse were concurrently related to challenges with family reintegration; predeployment alcohol misuse also predicted subsequent family reintegration difficulties. Additional analyses indicated that pre- and postdeployment relationship distress, combat disclosure, and postdeployment alcohol misuse each contributed to family reintegration when controlling for other intra- and interpersonal risk factors. Implications for prevention and early intervention strategies as well as future research are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

2014-11-01

Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Shame and guilt as shared vulnerability factors: Shame, but not guilt, prospectively predicts both social anxiety and bulimic symptoms.

PubMed

Levinson, Cheri A; Byrne, Meghan; Rodebaugh, Thomas L

2016-08-01

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are highly comorbid. However, little is known about the shared vulnerability factors that prospectively predict both SA and BN symptoms. Two potential factors that have not yet been tested are shame and guilt. In the current study we tested if shame and guilt were shared vulnerability factors for SA and BN symptoms. Women (N=300) completed measures of SA symptoms, BN symptoms, state shame and guilt, and trait negative affect at two time points, two months apart. Utilizing structural equation modeling we tested a cross-sectional and prospective model of SA and BN vulnerability. We found that shame prospectively predicted both SA and BN symptoms. We did not find that guilt prospectively predicted SA or BN symptoms. However, higher levels of both BN and SA symptoms predicted increased guilt over time. We found support for shame as a shared prospective vulnerability factor between BN and SA symptoms. Interventions that focus on decreasing shame could potentially alleviate symptoms of BN and SA in one protocol. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Different forms of spirituality and heavy episodic drinking among college students.

PubMed

Klassen, Brian J; Grekin, Emily R

2017-01-01

The current study examined prospective, bidirectional relationships between 3 measures of spirituality (Daily Spiritual Experiences, Positive Religious Coping, and Negative Religious Coping) and frequency of heavy episodic drinking. Three hundred ninety-one students attending a large, public university in the Midwest. Electronic surveys assessing predictors of college alcohol use were sent to participants in the winter of their freshman and sophomore years. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze data. A latent factor comprised of Daily Spiritual Experiences and Positive Religious Coping (ie, "positive spirituality") was negatively related to future frequency of heavy episodic drinking. Negative Religious Coping was unrelated to heavy episodic drinking. Additionally, heavy episodic drinking did not prospectively predict any measures of spirituality. Data are supportive of continued efforts to integrate positive spirituality into interventions for collegiate heavy episodic drinking.

Relationships between work-related factors and musculoskeletal health with current and future work ability among male workers.

PubMed

Boschman, J S; Noor, A; Lundström, R; Nilsson, T; Sluiter, J K; Hagberg, M

2017-08-01

The purpose was to increase job-specific knowledge about individual and work-related factors and their relationship with current and future work ability (WA). We studied cross-sectional relationships between mental demands, physical exertion during work, grip strength, musculoskeletal pain in the upper extremities and WA and the relationships between these variables and WA 11 years later. We used a dataset of a prospective cohort study (1997-2008) among employees of an engineering plant (n = 157). The cohort was surveyed by means of tests and written questions on work demands, musculoskeletal health, WA score (WAS; 0-10), and mental and physical WA. Spearman correlation coefficients and logistic regression analysis were used. Among manual workers, we found weak correlations between grip strength and current and future physical WA. We did not find predictors for future poor WA among the manual workers. Among the office workers, we found that musculoskeletal pain was moderately and negatively related to current WAS and physical WA. More handgrip strength related to better future WAS and physical WA. Musculoskeletal pain (OR 1.67 p < 0.01) and lower handgrip strength (OR 0.91 p < 0.05) predicted future poor WA among office workers. Our results showed cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between musculoskeletal health and work ability depending on occupation. However, the present implies that predicting work ability in the far future based on health surveillance data is rather difficult. Testing the musculoskeletal system (grip strength) and asking workers' about their musculoskeletal health seems relevant when monitoring work ability.

Phenomenology of future-oriented mind-wandering episodes

PubMed Central

Stawarczyk, David; Cassol, Helena; D'Argembeau, Arnaud

2013-01-01

Recent research suggests that prospective and non-prospective forms of mind-wandering possess distinct properties, yet little is known about what exactly differentiates between future-oriented and non-future-oriented mind-wandering episodes. In the present study, we used multilevel exploratory factor analyses (MEFA) to examine the factorial structure of various phenomenological dimensions of mind-wandering, and we then investigated whether future-oriented mind-wandering episodes differ from other classes of mind-wandering along the identified factors. We found that the phenomenological dimensions of mind-wandering are structured in four factors: representational format (inner speech vs. visual imagery), personal relevance, realism/concreteness, and structuration. Prospective mind-wandering differed from non-prospective mind-wandering along each of these factors. Specifically, future-oriented mind-wandering episodes involved inner speech to a greater extent, were more personally relevant, more realistic/concrete, and more often part of structured sequences of thoughts. These results show that future-oriented mind-wandering possesses a unique phenomenological signature and provide new insights into how this particular form of mind-wandering may adaptively contribute to autobiographical planning. PMID:23882236

Future thinking improves prospective memory performance and plan enactment in older adults.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Rendell, Peter G; Bernhard, Anka; Henry, Julie D; Bailey, Phoebe E; Phillips, Louise H; Kliegel, Matthias

2015-01-01

Efficient intention formation might improve prospective memory by reducing the need for resource-demanding strategic processes during the delayed performance interval. The present study set out to test this assumption and provides the first empirical assessment of whether imagining a future action improves prospective memory performance equivalently at different stages of the adult lifespan. Thus, younger (n = 40) and older (n = 40) adults were asked to complete the Dresden Breakfast Task, which required them to prepare breakfast in accordance with a set of rules and time restrictions. All participants began by generating a plan for later enactment; however, after making this plan, half of the participants were required to imagine themselves completing the task in the future (future thinking condition), while the other half received standard instructions (control condition). As expected, overall younger adults outperformed older adults. Moreover, both older and younger adults benefited equally from future thinking instructions, as reflected in a higher proportion of prospective memory responses and more accurate plan execution. Thus, for both younger and older adults, imagining the specific visual-spatial context in which an intention will later be executed may serve as an easy-to-implement strategy that enhances prospective memory function in everyday life.

Higgs Particle: The Origin of Mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Yasuhiro

2007-11-01

The Higgs particle is a new elementary particle predicted in the Standard Model of the elementary particle physics. It plays a special role in the theory of mass generation of quarks, leptons, and gauge bosons. In this article, theoretical issues on the Higgs mechanism are first discussed, and then experimental prospects on the Higgs particle study at the future collider experiments, LHC and ILC, are reviewed. The Higgs coupling determination is an essential step to establish the mass generation mechanism, which could lead to a deeper understanding of particle physics.

Information system in transition: The Hungarian Scene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stubnya, Gyorgy; Herman, Akos Robert

1994-01-01

Recent changes in political and economical conditions in eastern European countries are influencing the function and activities of the Hungarian Library and Information network. The National Technical Information Center and Library (OMIKK) is an active participant in this process of transition. In the first part of this paper, the general transformations of Hungarian libraries and information centers are analyzed and some predictions for future trends are presented. The second part is a short summary of the activities of OMIKK and its present and prospective role in the development of national information policy.

The organization of prospective thinking: evidence of event clusters in freely generated future thoughts.

PubMed

Demblon, Julie; D'Argembeau, Arnaud

2014-02-01

Recent research suggests that many imagined future events are not represented in isolation, but instead are embedded in broader event sequences-referred to as event clusters. It remains unclear, however, whether the production of event clusters reflects the underlying organizational structure of prospective thinking or whether it is an artifact of the event-cuing task in which participants are explicitly required to provide chains of associated future events. To address this issue, the present study examined whether the occurrence of event clusters in prospective thought is apparent when people are left to think freely about events that might happen in their personal future. The results showed that the succession of events participants spontaneously produced when envisioning their future frequently included event clusters. This finding provides more compelling evidence that prospective thinking involves higher-order autobiographical knowledge structures that organize imagined events in coherent themes and sequences. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent victimization increases risk for violence in justice-involved persons with mental illness.

PubMed

Sadeh, Naomi; Binder, Renée L; McNiel, Dale E

2014-04-01

A large body of research has examined relationships between distal experiences of victimization and the likelihood of engaging in violence later in life. Less is known about the influence of recent violent victimization on risk for violence perpetration. To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine prospectively whether recent victimization in adulthood increases the risk of future violence. Specifically, the present study assessed the incremental validity of recent violent victimization in the prediction of future violence in a sample of justice-involved adults with serious mental illness. The study examined (a) whether recent experiences of violent victimization (i.e., within 6 months of the baseline assessment) predicted a greater likelihood of perpetrating violence in the next year, and (b) whether inclusion of recent victimization enhanced the predictive validity of a model of violence risk in a sample of justice-involved adults with severe mental illness (N = 167). Hierarchical logistic regression analyses indicated that exposure to recent violent victimization at the baseline assessment predicted a greater likelihood of engaging in violent behavior during the year follow-up period. Additionally, recent exposure to violence at the baseline assessment continued to explain a significant amount of variance in a model of future violence perpetration above the variance accounted for by well-established violence risk factors. Taken together, the findings suggest that recent victimization is important to consider in understanding and evaluating risk of violence by persons with mental disorders who are involved in the criminal justice system. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Atrophic gastritis and enlarged gastric folds diagnosed by double-contrast upper gastrointestinal barium X-ray radiography are useful to predict future gastric cancer development based on the 3-year prospective observation.

PubMed

Yamamichi, Nobutake; Hirano, Chigaya; Ichinose, Masao; Takahashi, Yu; Minatsuki, Chihiro; Matsuda, Rie; Nakayama, Chiemi; Shimamoto, Takeshi; Kodashima, Shinya; Ono, Satoshi; Tsuji, Yosuke; Niimi, Keiko; Sakaguchi, Yoshiki; Kataoka, Yosuke; Saito, Itaru; Asada-Hirayama, Itsuko; Takeuchi, Chihiro; Yakabi, Seiichi; Kaikimoto, Hikaru; Matsumoto, Yuta; Yamaguchi, Daisuke; Kageyama-Yahara, Natsuko; Fujishiro, Mitsuhiro; Wada, Ryoichi; Mitsushima, Toru; Koike, Kazuhiko

2016-07-01

Double-contrast upper gastrointestinal barium X-ray radiography (UGI-XR) is the standard gastric cancer screening method in Japan. Atrophic gastritis and enlarged gastric folds are considered the two major features of Helicobacter pylori-induced chronic gastritis, but the clinical meaning of evaluating them by UGI-XR has not been elucidated. We analyzed healthy UGI-XR examinees without a history of gastrectomy, previous Helicobacter pylori eradication and usage of gastric acid suppressants. Of the 6433 subjects, 1936 (30.1 %) had atrophic gastritis and 1253 (19.5 %) had enlarged gastric folds. During the 3-year prospective observational follow-up, gastric cancer developed in seven subjects, six of whom (85.7 %) had atrophic gastritis with H. pylori infection and five of whom (71.4 %) had enlarged gastric folds with H. pylori infection. The Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank testing revealed that both UGI-XR-based atrophic gastritis (p = 0.0011) and enlarged gastric folds (p = 0.0003) are significant predictors for future gastric cancer incidence.

Eating disorders: Insights from imaging and behavioral approaches to treatment.

PubMed

Stice, Eric; Shaw, Heather

2017-11-01

Understanding factors that contribute to eating disorders, which affect 13% of females, is critical to developing effective prevention and treatment programs. In this paper, we summarize results from prospective studies that identified factors predicting onset and persistence of eating disorders and core symptom dimensions. Next, implications for intervention targets for prevention, and treatment interventions from the risk- and maintenance-factor findings are discussed. Third, given that evidence suggests eating disorders are highly heritable, implying biological risk and maintenance factors for eating disorders, we offer working hypotheses about biological factors that might contribute to eating disorders, based on extant risk factor findings, theory, and cross-sectional studies. Finally, potentially fruitful directions for future research are presented. We suggest that it would be useful for experimental therapeutics trials to evaluate the effects of reducing the risk factors on future onset of eating pathology and on reducing maintenance factors on the risk for persistence of eating pathology, and encourage researchers to utilize prospective high-risk studies so that knowledge regarding potential intervention targets for prevention and treatment interventions for eating disorders can be advanced. Using the most rigorous research designs should help improve the efficacy of prevention and treatment interventions for eating disorders.

Risk factors for psychological maladjustment of parents of children with cancer.

PubMed

Hoekstra-Weebers, J E; Jaspers, J P; Kamps, W A; Klip, E C

1999-12-01

To examine risk variables for future, more immediate, and persistent psychological distress of parents of pediatric cancer patients. Parents (n = 128) completed questionnaires at the time of diagnosis (T1) and 12 months later (T2). Multiple regression analyses were performed using the following as predictors: demographics, illness-related variables, other life events, personality, coping styles, and social support. Trait anxiety was the strongest predictor of both fathers' and mothers' future distress. Changes in trait anxiety during the year also accompanied changes in both parents' levels of distress. Additional prospective predictors for fathers were the coping style "social support-seeking" and dissatisfaction with support. Dissatisfaction with support also had short-term effects for fathers. An additional prospective predictor for mothers was the number of pleasant events they had experienced prior to diagnosis, while a short-term effect was found for performance in assertiveness. No predictors for the persistence of distress were found. These results underscore the importance of personality anxiety in predicting parents' risk for adjustment difficulties associated with the experience of cancer in one's child. An additional risk factor for fathers was social support. For mothers, previously experienced life events and the frequency of assertive behavior were additional risk factors.

Can policy analysis theories predict and inform policy change? Reflections on the battle for legal abortion in Indonesia

PubMed Central

Surjadjaja, Claudia; Mayhew, Susannah H

2011-01-01

The relevance and importance of research for understanding policy processes and influencing policies has been much debated, but studies on the effectiveness of policy theories for predicting and informing opportunities for policy change (i.e. prospective policy analysis) are rare. The case study presented in this paper is drawn from a policy analysis of a contemporary process of policy debate on legalization of abortion in Indonesia, which was in flux at the time of the research and provided a unique opportunity for prospective analysis. Applying a combination of policy analysis theories, this case study provides an analysis of processes, power and relationships between actors involved in the amendment of the Health Law in Indonesia. It uses a series of practical stakeholder mapping tools to identify power relations between key actors and what strategic approaches should be employed to manage these to enhance the possibility of policy change. The findings show how the moves to legalize abortion have been supported or constrained according to the balance of political and religious powers operating in a macro-political context defined increasingly by a polarized Islamic-authoritarian—Western-liberal agenda. The issue of reproductive health constituted a battlefield where these two ideologies met and the debate on the current health law amendment became a contest, which still continues, for the larger future of Indonesia. The findings confirm the utility of policy analysis theories and stakeholder mapping tools for predicting the likelihood of policy change and informing the strategic approaches for achieving such change. They also highlight opportunities and dilemmas in prospective policy analysis and raise questions about whether research on policy processes and actors can or should be used to inform, or even influence, policies in ‘real-time’. PMID:21183461

Noninvasive detection of increased carotid artery temperature in patients with coronary artery disease predicts major cardiovascular events at one year: Results from a prospective multicenter study.

PubMed

Toutouzas, Konstantinos; Benetos, Georgios; Koutagiar, Iosif; Barampoutis, Nikolaos; Mitropoulou, Fotini; Davlouros, Periklis; Sfikakis, Petros P; Alexopoulos, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Siores, Elias; Tousoulis, Dimitris

2017-07-01

Limited prospective data have been reported regarding the impact of carotid inflammation on cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Microwave radiometry (MWR) is a noninvasive, simple method that has been used for evaluation of carotid artery temperature which, when increased, predicts 'inflamed' plaques with vulnerable characteristics. We prospectively tested the hypothesis that increased carotid artery temperature predicts future cerebro- and cardiovascular events in patients with CAD. Consecutive patients from 3 centers, with documented CAD by coronary angiography, were studied. In both carotid arteries, common carotid intima-media thickness and plaque thickness were evaluated by ultrasound. Temperature difference (ΔT), measured by MWR, was considered as the maximal temperature along the carotid artery minus the minimum; ΔT ≥0.90 °C was assigned as high. Major cardiovascular events (MACE, death, stroke, myocardial infarction or revascularization) were recorded during the following year. In total, 250 patients were studied; of them 40 patients (16%) had high ΔT values in both carotid arteries. MACEs occurred in 30% of patients having bilateral high ΔT versus 3.8% in the remaining patients (p<0.001). Bilateral high ΔT was independently associated with increased one-year MACE rate (HR = 6.32, 95% CI 2.42-16.53, p<0.001, by multivariate cox regression hazard model). The addition of ΔT information on a baseline model based on cardiovascular risk factors and extent of CAD significantly increased the prognostic value of the model (c-statistic increase 0.744 to 0.845, p dif  = 0.05) CONCLUSIONS: Carotid inflammation, detected by MWR, has an incremental prognostic value in patients with documented CAD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can policy analysis theories predict and inform policy change? Reflections on the battle for legal abortion in Indonesia.

PubMed

Surjadjaja, Claudia; Mayhew, Susannah H

2011-09-01

The relevance and importance of research for understanding policy processes and influencing policies has been much debated, but studies on the effectiveness of policy theories for predicting and informing opportunities for policy change (i.e. prospective policy analysis) are rare. The case study presented in this paper is drawn from a policy analysis of a contemporary process of policy debate on legalization of abortion in Indonesia, which was in flux at the time of the research and provided a unique opportunity for prospective analysis. Applying a combination of policy analysis theories, this case study provides an analysis of processes, power and relationships between actors involved in the amendment of the Health Law in Indonesia. It uses a series of practical stakeholder mapping tools to identify power relations between key actors and what strategic approaches should be employed to manage these to enhance the possibility of policy change. The findings show how the moves to legalize abortion have been supported or constrained according to the balance of political and religious powers operating in a macro-political context defined increasingly by a polarized Islamic-authoritarian-Western-liberal agenda. The issue of reproductive health constituted a battlefield where these two ideologies met and the debate on the current health law amendment became a contest, which still continues, for the larger future of Indonesia. The findings confirm the utility of policy analysis theories and stakeholder mapping tools for predicting the likelihood of policy change and informing the strategic approaches for achieving such change. They also highlight opportunities and dilemmas in prospective policy analysis and raise questions about whether research on policy processes and actors can or should be used to inform, or even influence, policies in 'real-time'.

Can Predictive Modeling Identify Head and Neck Oncology Patients at Risk for Readmission?

PubMed

Manning, Amy M; Casper, Keith A; Peter, Kay St; Wilson, Keith M; Mark, Jonathan R; Collar, Ryan M

2018-05-01

Objective Unplanned readmission within 30 days is a contributor to health care costs in the United States. The use of predictive modeling during hospitalization to identify patients at risk for readmission offers a novel approach to quality improvement and cost reduction. Study Design Two-phase study including retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data followed by prospective longitudinal study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods Prospectively collected data for patients undergoing surgical treatment for head and neck cancer from January 2013 to January 2015 were used to build predictive models for readmission within 30 days of discharge using logistic regression, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, and random forests. One model (logistic regression) was then placed prospectively into the discharge workflow from March 2016 to May 2016 to determine the model's ability to predict which patients would be readmitted within 30 days. Results In total, 174 admissions had descriptive data. Thirty-two were excluded due to incomplete data. Logistic regression, CART, and random forest predictive models were constructed using the remaining 142 admissions. When applied to 106 consecutive prospective head and neck oncology patients at the time of discharge, the logistic regression model predicted readmissions with a specificity of 94%, a sensitivity of 47%, a negative predictive value of 90%, and a positive predictive value of 62% (odds ratio, 14.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.02-55.45). Conclusion Prospectively collected head and neck cancer databases can be used to develop predictive models that can accurately predict which patients will be readmitted. This offers valuable support for quality improvement initiatives and readmission-related cost reduction in head and neck cancer care.

Prospective memory in an air traffic control simulation: External aids that signal when to act

PubMed Central

Loft, Shayne; Smith, Rebekah E.; Bhaskara, Adella

2011-01-01

At work and in our personal life we often need to remember to perform intended actions at some point in the future, referred to as Prospective Memory. Individuals sometimes forget to perform intentions in safety-critical work contexts. Holding intentions can also interfere with ongoing tasks. We applied theories and methods from the experimental literature to test the effectiveness of external aids in reducing prospective memory error and costs to ongoing tasks in an air traffic control simulation. Participants were trained to accept and hand-off aircraft, and to detect aircraft conflicts. For the prospective memory task participants were required to substitute alternative actions for routine actions when accepting target aircraft. Across two experiments, external display aids were provided that presented the details of target aircraft and associated intended actions. We predicted that aids would only be effective if they provided information that was diagnostic of target occurrence and in this study we examined the utility of aids that directly cued participants when to allocate attention to the prospective memory task. When aids were set to flash when the prospective memory target aircraft needed to be accepted, prospective memory error and costs to ongoing tasks of aircraft acceptance and conflict detection were reduced. In contrast, aids that did not alert participants specifically when the target aircraft were present provided no advantage compared to when no aids we used. These findings have practical implications for the potential relative utility of automated external aids for occupations where individuals monitor multi-item dynamic displays. PMID:21443381

Prospective memory in an air traffic control simulation: external aids that signal when to act.

PubMed

Loft, Shayne; Smith, Rebekah E; Bhaskara, Adella

2011-03-01

At work and in our personal life we often need to remember to perform intended actions at some point in the future, referred to as Prospective Memory. Individuals sometimes forget to perform intentions in safety-critical work contexts. Holding intentions can also interfere with ongoing tasks. We applied theories and methods from the experimental literature to test the effectiveness of external aids in reducing prospective memory error and costs to ongoing tasks in an air traffic control simulation. Participants were trained to accept and hand-off aircraft and to detect aircraft conflicts. For the prospective memory task, participants were required to substitute alternative actions for routine actions when accepting target aircraft. Across two experiments, external display aids were provided that presented the details of target aircraft and associated intended actions. We predicted that aids would only be effective if they provided information that was diagnostic of target occurrence, and in this study, we examined the utility of aids that directly cued participants when to allocate attention to the prospective memory task. When aids were set to flash when the prospective memory target aircraft needed to be accepted, prospective memory error and costs to ongoing tasks of aircraft acceptance and conflict detection were reduced. In contrast, aids that did not alert participants specifically when the target aircraft were present provided no advantage compared to when no aids were used. These findings have practical implications for the potential relative utility of automated external aids for occupations where individuals monitor multi-item dynamic displays.

Exercise blood pressure and the risk of future hypertension.

PubMed

Holmqvist, L; Mortensen, L; Kanckos, C; Ljungman, C; Mehlig, K; Manhem, K

2012-12-01

The aim of this prospective cohort study was to identify which blood pressure measurement during exercise is the best predictor of future hypertension. Further we aimed to create a risk chart to facilitate the evaluation of blood pressure reaction during exercise testing. A number (n=1047) of exercise tests by bicycle ergometry, performed in 1996 and 1997 were analysed. In 2007-2008, 606 patients without hypertension at the time of the exercise test were sent a questionnaire aimed to identify current hypertension. The response rate was 58% (n=352). During the 10-12 years between exercise test and questionnaire, 23% developed hypertension. The strongest predictors of future hypertension were systolic blood pressure (SBP) before exercise (odds ratios (OR) 1.63 (1.31-2.01) for 10 mm Hg difference) in combination with the increase of SBP over time during exercise testing (OR 1.12 (1.01-1.24) steeper increase for every 1 mm Hg min(-1)). A high SBP before exercise and a steep rise in SBP over time represented a higher risk of developing hypertension. A risk chart based on SBP before exercise, increase of SBP over time and body mass index was created. SBP before exercise, maximal SBP during exercise and SBP at 100 W were significant single predictors of future hypertension and the prediction by maximal SBP was improved by adjusting for time/power at which SBP max was reached during exercise testing. Recovery ratio (maximal SBP/SBP 4 min after exercise) was not predictive of future hypertension.

Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006–2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

PubMed Central

Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer; Britch, Seth C.; Pak, Edwin; de La Rocque, Stephane; Formenty, Pierre; Hightower, Allen W.; Breiman, Robert F.; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Tucker, Compton J.; Schnabel, David; Sang, Rosemary; Haagsma, Karl; Latham, Mark; Lewandowski, Henry B.; Magdi, Salih Osman; Mohamed, Mohamed Ally; Nguku, Patrick M.; Reynes, Jean-Marc; Swanepoel, Robert

2010-01-01

Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2–4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future. PMID:20682905

The role of descriptive norm within the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean Americans' exercise behavior.

PubMed

Lee, Hyo

2011-08-01

There are few studies investigating psychosocial mechanisms in Korean Americans' exercise behavior. The present study tested the usefulness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean American's exercise behavior and whether the descriptive norm (i.e., perceptions of what others do) improved the predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior. Using a retrospective design and self-report measures, web-survey responses from 198 Korean-American adults were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. The theory of planned behavior constructs accounted for 31% of exercise behavior and 43% of exercise intention. Intention and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of exercise behavior. Although the descriptive norm did not augment the theory of planned behavior, all original constructs--attitude, injunctive norm (a narrow definition of subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control--statistically significantly predicted leisure-time physical activity intention. Future studies should consider random sampling, prospective design, and objective measures of physical activity.

Forward-Thinking Teens: The Effects of College Costs on Adolescent Risky Behavior

PubMed Central

Cowan, Benjamin W.

2011-01-01

This paper analyzes the effect of college costs on teenagers’ engagement in risky behaviors before they are old enough to attend college. Individuals with brighter prospects for future schooling attainment may engage in less drug and alcohol use and risky sexual activity because they have more to lose if such behaviors have harmful effects in their lives. If teens correctly predict that higher college costs make future college enrollment less likely, then adolescents facing different expected costs may choose different levels of risky behavior. I find that lower college costs in teenagers’ states of residence raise their subjective expectations regarding college attendance and deter teenage substance use and sexual partnership. Specifically, a $1,000 reduction in tuition and fees at two-year colleges in a youth’s state of residence (roughly a 50% difference at the mean) is associated with a decline in the number of sexual partners the youth had in the past year (by 26%), the number of days in the past month the youth smoked (by 14%), and the number of days in the past month the youth used marijuana (by 23%). These findings suggest that the often-studied correlation between schooling and health habits emerges in adolescence because teenagers with brighter college prospects curb their risky behavior in accordance with their expectations. The results also imply that policies that improve teenagers’ educational prospects may be effective tools for reducing youthful involvement in such behaviors. PMID:21886942

Dread and the disvalue of future pain.

PubMed

Story, Giles W; Vlaev, Ivaylo; Seymour, Ben; Winston, Joel S; Darzi, Ara; Dolan, Raymond J

2013-01-01

Standard theories of decision-making involving delayed outcomes predict that people should defer a punishment, whilst advancing a reward. In some cases, such as pain, people seem to prefer to expedite punishment, implying that its anticipation carries a cost, often conceptualized as 'dread'. Despite empirical support for the existence of dread, whether and how it depends on prospective delay is unknown. Furthermore, it is unclear whether dread represents a stable component of value, or is modulated by biases such as framing effects. Here, we examine choices made between different numbers of painful shocks to be delivered faithfully at different time points up to 15 minutes in the future, as well as choices between hypothetical painful dental appointments at time points of up to approximately eight months in the future, to test alternative models for how future pain is disvalued. We show that future pain initially becomes increasingly aversive with increasing delay, but does so at a decreasing rate. This is consistent with a value model in which moment-by-moment dread increases up to the time of expected pain, such that dread becomes equivalent to the discounted expectation of pain. For a minority of individuals pain has maximum negative value at intermediate delay, suggesting that the dread function may itself be prospectively discounted in time. Framing an outcome as relief reduces the overall preference to expedite pain, which can be parameterized by reducing the rate of the dread-discounting function. Our data support an account of disvaluation for primary punishments such as pain, which differs fundamentally from existing models applied to financial punishments, in which dread exerts a powerful but time-dependent influence over choice.

Dread and the Disvalue of Future Pain

PubMed Central

Story, Giles W.; Vlaev, Ivaylo; Seymour, Ben; Winston, Joel S.; Darzi, Ara; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

Standard theories of decision-making involving delayed outcomes predict that people should defer a punishment, whilst advancing a reward. In some cases, such as pain, people seem to prefer to expedite punishment, implying that its anticipation carries a cost, often conceptualized as ‘dread’. Despite empirical support for the existence of dread, whether and how it depends on prospective delay is unknown. Furthermore, it is unclear whether dread represents a stable component of value, or is modulated by biases such as framing effects. Here, we examine choices made between different numbers of painful shocks to be delivered faithfully at different time points up to 15 minutes in the future, as well as choices between hypothetical painful dental appointments at time points of up to approximately eight months in the future, to test alternative models for how future pain is disvalued. We show that future pain initially becomes increasingly aversive with increasing delay, but does so at a decreasing rate. This is consistent with a value model in which moment-by-moment dread increases up to the time of expected pain, such that dread becomes equivalent to the discounted expectation of pain. For a minority of individuals pain has maximum negative value at intermediate delay, suggesting that the dread function may itself be prospectively discounted in time. Framing an outcome as relief reduces the overall preference to expedite pain, which can be parameterized by reducing the rate of the dread-discounting function. Our data support an account of disvaluation for primary punishments such as pain, which differs fundamentally from existing models applied to financial punishments, in which dread exerts a powerful but time-dependent influence over choice. PMID:24277999

Prospective Changes in Alcohol Use Among Hazardous Drinkers in the Absence of Treatment

PubMed Central

Dearing, Ronda L.; Witkiewitz, Katie; Connors, Gerard J.; Walitzer, Kimberly S.

2012-01-01

Gaining a better understanding of the natural course of hazardous alcohol consumption could inform the development of brief interventions to encourage self-change. In the current study, hazardous drinkers (based on Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score) were recruited using advertisements to participate in a 2-year multi-wave prospective study. Participants (N = 206) provided self-reports every six months during the study, including reports of daily alcohol consumption. The current investigation focuses on self-initiated change in participants’ frequency of heavy drinking days (i.e., ≥ 5/4 drinks per day for men/women), as predicted by a number of demographic (e.g., age) and psychosocial (e.g., guilt-proneness) variables. Latent growth curve models of the change in percent heavy drinking days over the 2-year period provided an excellent fit to the observed data and indicated a significant decline in percent heavy drinking days over time. Reductions in heavy drinking frequency were predicted by younger age and higher guilt-proneness. The identification of these predictors of reductions in heavy drinking frequency provides information to guide future work investigating self-change among hazardous drinkers. PMID:22612252

Prospective Study of the Evolution of Blood Lymphoid Immune Parameters during Dacarbazine Chemotherapy in Metastatic and Locally Advanced Melanoma Patients

PubMed Central

Vabres, Pierre; Dalac, Sophie; Jeudy, Geraldine; Bel, Blandine; Apetoh, Lionel; Ghiringhelli, François

2014-01-01

Background The importance of immune responses in the control of melanoma growth is well known. However, the implication of these antitumor immune responses in the efficacy of dacarbazine, a cytotoxic drug classically used in the treatment of melanoma, remains poorly understood in humans. Methods In this prospective observational study, we performed an immunomonitoring of eleven metastatic or locally advanced patients treated with dacarbazine as a first line of treatment. We assessed by flow cytometry lymphoid populations and their activation state; we also isolated NK cells to perform in vitro cytotoxicity tests. Results We found that chemotherapy induces lymphopenia and that a significantly higher numbers of naïve CD4+ T cells and lower proportion of Treg before chemotherapy are associated with disease control after dacarbazine treatment. Interestingly, NK cell cytotoxicity against dacarbazine-pretreated melanoma cells is only observed in NK cells from patients who achieved disease control. Conclusion Together, our data pinpoint that some immune factors could help to predict the response of melanoma patients to dacarbazine. Future larger scale studies are warranted to test their validity as prediction markers. PMID:25170840

Prospective changes in alcohol use among hazardous drinkers in the absence of treatment.

PubMed

Dearing, Ronda L; Witkiewitz, Katie; Connors, Gerard J; Walitzer, Kimberly S

2013-03-01

Gaining a better understanding of the natural course of hazardous alcohol consumption could inform the development of brief interventions to encourage self-change. In the current study, hazardous drinkers (based on Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score) were recruited using advertisements to participate in a 2-year multiwave prospective study. Participants (n = 206) provided self-reports every six months during the study, including reports of daily alcohol consumption. The current investigation focuses on self-initiated change in participants' frequency of heavy drinking days (i.e., ≥ 5/4 drinks per day for men/women), as predicted by a number of demographic (e.g., age) and psychosocial (e.g., guilt-proneness) variables. Latent growth curve models of the change in percent heavy drinking days over the 2-year period provided an excellent fit to the observed data and indicated a significant decline in percent heavy drinking days over time. Reductions in heavy drinking frequency were predicted by younger age and higher guilt-proneness. The identification of these predictors of reductions in heavy drinking frequency provides information to guide future work investigating self-change among hazardous drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Cross-linked fibrin degradation products (D-dimer), plasma cytokines, and cognitive decline in community-dwelling elderly persons.

PubMed

Wilson, Craig J; Cohen, Harvey Jay; Pieper, Carl F

2003-10-01

To investigate the effect of coagulation and inflammatory pathway activation on future cognitive decline in older persons. Prospective cohort study. Rural and urban communities in North Carolina. Community-dwelling older people enrolled in the Duke Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly in 1986. In 1992, blood was drawn for assay of D-dimer (1,723 subjects), Interleukin-6 (1,726 subjects), and other cytokines (1,551 subjects). Cognitive and functional assessments were performed in 1986, 1989, 1992, and 1996. Cognition was measured using the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire. Cognitive decline over a 4-year period was significantly correlated (P<.001) with D-dimer, age, race, and physical performance status as measured using the Rosow-Breslau and Nagi instruments. After controlling for demographics, functional status, and comorbidities, D-dimer remained predictive of cognitive decline. Proinflammatory cytokines were not associated with current cognitive status in cross-sectional analyses or with incident cognitive decline in prospective analyses. In a large sample of community-dwelling elders, higher levels of D-dimer were predictive of cognitive decline over a 4-year period. No clinically significant associations were found between age-related peripheral cytokine dysregulation and cognition.

Stride dynamics, gait variability and prospective falls risk in active community dwelling older women.

PubMed

Paterson, Kade; Hill, Keith; Lythgo, Noel

2011-02-01

Measures of walking instability such as stride dynamics and gait variability have been shown to identify future fallers in older adult populations with gait limitations or mobility disorders. This study investigated whether measures of walking instability can predict future fallers (over a prospective 12 month period) in a group of healthy and active older women. Ninety-seven healthy active women aged between 55 and 90 years walked for 7 min around a continuous walking circuit. Gait data recorded by a GAITRite(®) walkway and foot-mounted accelerometers were used to calculate measures of stride dynamics and gait variability. The participant's physical function and balance were assessed. Fall incidence was monitored over the following 12 months. Inter-limb differences (p≤0.04) in stride dynamics were found for fallers (one or more falls) aged over 70 years, and multiple fallers (two or more falls) aged over 55 years, but not in non-fallers or a combined group of single and non-fallers. No group differences were found in the measures of physical function, balance or gait, including variability. Additionally, no gait variable predicted falls. Reduced coordination of inter-limb dynamics was found in active healthy older fallers and multiple fallers despite no difference in other measures of intrinsic falls risk. Evaluating inter-limb dynamics may be a clinically sensitive technique to detect early gait instability and falls risk in high functioning older adults, prior to change in other measures of physical function, balance and gait. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of Mobil`s methods to evaluate exploration and producing opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaynor, C.B.; Cook, D.M. Jr.

1996-08-01

Over the past decade, Mobil has changed significantly in size, structure and focus to improve profitability. Concurrently, work processes and methodologies have been modified to improve resource utilization and opportunity selection. The key imperative has been recognition of the full range of hydrocarbon volume uncertainty, its risk and value. Exploration has focussed on increasing success through improved geotechnical estimates and demonstrating value addition. For Producing, the important tasks: (1) A centralized Exploration and Producing team was formed to help ensure an integrated, consistent worldwide approach to prospect and field assessments. Monte Carlo simulation was instituted to recognize probability-weighted ranges ofmore » possible outcomes for prospects and fields, and hydrocarbon volume category definitions were standardized. (2) Exploration instituted a global Prospect Inventory, tracking wildcat predictions vs. results. Performance analyses led to initiatives to improve the quality and consistency of assessments. Process improvement efforts included the use of multidisciplinary teams and peer reviews. Continued overestimates of hydrocarbon volumes prompted methodology changes such as the use of {open_quotes}reality checks{close_quotes} and log-normal distributions. The communication of value predictions and additions became paramount. (3) Producing now recognizes the need for Exploration`s commercial discoveries and new Producing ventures, notwithstanding the associated risk. Multi-disciplinary teams of engineers and geoscientists work on post-discovery assessments to optimize field development and maximize the value of opportunities. Mobil now integrates volume and risk assessment with correlative future capital investment programs to make proactive strategic choices to maximize shareholder value.« less

Rejection sensitivity prospectively predicts increased rumination.

PubMed

Pearson, Katherine A; Watkins, Edward R; Mullan, Eugene G

2011-10-01

Converging research findings indicate that rumination is correlated with a specific maladaptive interpersonal style encapsulating submissive (overly-accommodating, non-assertive and self-sacrificing) behaviours, and an attachment orientation characterised by rejection sensitivity. This study examined the prospective longitudinal relationship between rumination, the submissive interpersonal style, and rejection sensitivity by comparing two alternative hypotheses: (a) the submissive interpersonal style and rejection sensitivity prospectively predict increased rumination; (b) rumination prospectively predicts the submissive interpersonal style and rejection sensitivity. Currently depressed (n = 22), previously depressed (n = 42) and never depressed (n = 28) individuals completed self-report measures assessing depressive rumination and key psychosocial measures of interpersonal style and behaviours, at baseline and again six months later. Baseline rejection sensitivity prospectively predicted increased rumination six months later, after statistically controlling for baseline rumination, gender and depression. Baseline rumination did not predict the submissive interpersonal style or rejection sensitivity. The results provide a first step towards delineating a potential casual relationship between rejection sensitivity and rumination, and suggest the potential value of clinical assessment and intervention for both rejection sensitivity and rumination in individuals who present with either difficulty. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

PubMed

Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

2009-12-01

Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

Proceedings of the conference on alternative energy sources for Texas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rothman, I.N.

1981-01-01

Four primary areas of study for alternative energy sources for Texas are considered. These are: energy demand supply and economics; prospects for energy resources (oil, lignite, coal, nuclear, goethermal and solar) and conservation; financial and technical constraints; and future planning. The following papers are presented: US energy outlook to 1990; energy supply and demand projections; comparative economics of solar energy in the generation of big power; gas present and future prospects; prospects for enhanced recovery of oil in Texas; the outlook for coal in USA; implementation of nuclear power in Texas; future outlook - geopressured-geothermal energy for Texas; future prospectsmore » for conservation and solar energy; financing and money supply constraints; technical constraints to energy supply increase; planning for the future - the crisis that drones on. Two papers have been abstracted separately.« less

Parent-Child Discrepancies in Reports of Parental Monitoring and Their Relationship to Adolescent Alcohol-Related Behaviors.

PubMed

Abar, Caitlin C; Jackson, Kristina M; Colby, Suzanne M; Barnett, Nancy P

2015-09-01

Discrepancies between parents and adolescents regarding parenting behaviors have been hypothesized to represent a deficit in the parent-child relationship and may represent unique risk factors for poor developmental outcomes. The current study examined the predictive utility of multiple methods for characterizing discrepancies in parents' and adolescents' reports of parental monitoring on youth alcohol use behaviors in order to inform future study design and predictive modeling. Data for the current study came from a prospective investigation of alcohol initiation and progression. The analyzed sample consisted of 606 adolescents (6th-8th grade; 54 % female) and their parents were surveyed at baseline, with youth followed up 12 months later. A series of hierarchical logistic regressions were performed for each monitoring-related construct examined (parental knowledge, parental control, parental solicitation, and child disclosure). The results showed that adolescents' reports were more closely related to outcomes than parents' reports, while greater discrepancies were frequently found to be uniquely associated with greater likelihood of alcohol use behaviors. Implications for future work incorporating parents' and adolescents' reports are discussed.

Biomarkers in systemic lupus erythematosus: challenges and prospects for the future

PubMed Central

Kao, Amy H.; Manzi, Susan; Ahearn, Joseph M.

2013-01-01

The search for lupus biomarkers to diagnose, monitor, stratify, and predict individual response to therapy is currently more intense than ever before. This effort is essential for several reasons. First, epidemic overdiagnosis and underdiagnosis of lupus, even by certified rheumatologists, leads to errors in therapy with concomitant side effects which may be more serious than the disease itself. Second, identification of lupus flares remains as much an art as it is a science. Third, the capacity to stratify patients so as to predict those who will develop specific patterns of organ involvement is not currently possible but would potentially lead to preventive therapeutic strategies. Fourth, only one new drug for the treatment of lupus has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in over 50 years. A major obstacle in this pipeline is the dearth of biomarkers available to prove a patient has responded to an experimental therapeutic intervention. This review will summarize the challenges faced in the discovery and validation of lupus biomarkers, the most promising lupus biomarkers identified to date, and the promise of future directions. PMID:23904865

Delayed dispersal and the costs and benefits of different routes to independent breeding in a cooperatively breeding bird

PubMed Central

Kingma, Sjouke A.; Bebbington, Kat; Hammers, Martijn; Richardson, David S.; Komdeur, Jan

2016-01-01

Why sexually mature individuals stay in groups as nonreproductive subordinates is central to the evolution of sociality and cooperative breeding. To understand such delayed dispersal, its costs and benefits need to be compared with those of permanently leaving to float through the population. However, comprehensive comparisons, especially regarding differences in future breeding opportunities, are rare. Moreover, extraterritorial prospecting by philopatric individuals has generally been ignored, even though the factors underlying this route to independent breeding may differ from those of strict philopatry or floating. We use a comprehensive predictive framework to explore how various costs, benefits and intrinsic, environmental and social factors explain philopatry, prospecting, and floating in Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis). Not only floaters more likely obtained an independent breeding position before the next season than strictly philopatric individuals, but also suffered higher mortality. Prospecting yielded similar benefits to floating but lower mortality costs, suggesting that it is overall more beneficial than floating and strict philopatry. While prospecting is probably individual‐driven, although limited by resource availability, floating likely results from eviction by unrelated breeders. Such differences in proximate and ultimate factors underlying each route to independent breeding highlight the need for simultaneous consideration when studying the evolution of delayed dispersal. PMID:27641712

Model-Based and Model-Free Pavlovian Reward Learning: Revaluation, Revision and Revelation

PubMed Central

Dayan, Peter; Berridge, Kent C.

2014-01-01

Evidence supports at least two methods for learning about reward and punishment and making predictions for guiding actions. One method, called model-free, progressively acquires cached estimates of the long-run values of circumstances and actions from retrospective experience. The other method, called model-based, uses representations of the environment, expectations and prospective calculations to make cognitive predictions of future value. Extensive attention has been paid to both methods in computational analyses of instrumental learning. By contrast, although a full computational analysis has been lacking, Pavlovian learning and prediction has typically been presumed to be solely model-free. Here, we revise that presumption and review compelling evidence from Pavlovian revaluation experiments showing that Pavlovian predictions can involve their own form of model-based evaluation. In model-based Pavlovian evaluation, prevailing states of the body and brain influence value computations, and thereby produce powerful incentive motivations that can sometimes be quite new. We consider the consequences of this revised Pavlovian view for the computational landscape of prediction, response and choice. We also revisit differences between Pavlovian and instrumental learning in the control of incentive motivation. PMID:24647659

A behavioral economic reward index predicts drinking resolutions: moderation revisited and compared with other outcomes.

PubMed

Tucker, Jalie A; Roth, David L; Vignolo, Mary J; Westfall, Andrew O

2009-04-01

Data were pooled from 3 studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1- to 2-year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced preresolution monetary allocations between short-term and longer term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (ORs) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" index predicted higher rates of abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p < .0001) compared with moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of preresolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation.

Model-based and model-free Pavlovian reward learning: revaluation, revision, and revelation.

PubMed

Dayan, Peter; Berridge, Kent C

2014-06-01

Evidence supports at least two methods for learning about reward and punishment and making predictions for guiding actions. One method, called model-free, progressively acquires cached estimates of the long-run values of circumstances and actions from retrospective experience. The other method, called model-based, uses representations of the environment, expectations, and prospective calculations to make cognitive predictions of future value. Extensive attention has been paid to both methods in computational analyses of instrumental learning. By contrast, although a full computational analysis has been lacking, Pavlovian learning and prediction has typically been presumed to be solely model-free. Here, we revise that presumption and review compelling evidence from Pavlovian revaluation experiments showing that Pavlovian predictions can involve their own form of model-based evaluation. In model-based Pavlovian evaluation, prevailing states of the body and brain influence value computations, and thereby produce powerful incentive motivations that can sometimes be quite new. We consider the consequences of this revised Pavlovian view for the computational landscape of prediction, response, and choice. We also revisit differences between Pavlovian and instrumental learning in the control of incentive motivation.

Relationships between sleep apnea, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and aortic pulse wave velocity over 18 years: the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort.

PubMed

Stein, James H; Stern, Rebecca; Barnet, Jodi H; Korcarz, Claudia E; Hagen, Erika W; Young, Terry; Peppard, Paul E

2016-05-01

The purpose of this study is to determine if apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) severity predicts future aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) in the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort. Applanation tonometry was used to derive carotid-to-femoral PWV a mean of 18 years (standard deviation 4) after overnight polysomnography. Multivariable regression models were created to describe prospective associations between baseline AHI and future PWV. The 618 adults were mean 65 (7) years old (55 % male) with a mean body mass index of 31 (7) kg/m(2) at the tonometry visit. Mean baseline AHI was 4.6 (9.7) events/h. In multiple linear regression models adjusted for age (β = 0.13/year, standard error [SE] = 0.01, p < 0.001) and sex, higher log10AHI (β = 0.43/events/h, SE = 0.18, p = 0.02) was associated with PWV. After adjustment for waist circumference (β = 0.01/cm, SE = 0.01, p = 0.05) and height, the association between baseline log10AHI and future PWV was not statistically significant (p = 0.11), although the association with age persisted unchanged. Addition of covariates such as smoking status (current smoker β = 0.66, SE = 0.22, p = 0.002), diabetes mellitus status (β = 2.89, SE = 0.59, p < 0.001), and systolic blood pressure (BP, β = 0.03/mmHg, SE = 0.01, p < 0.001) did not change the association. AHI did not interact with age or smoking status to predict PWV. A secondary analysis of nocturnal oxygen saturation parameters in 517 participants, 9 (2) years prior also did not show any significant relationships with future PWV. The prospective association between AHI and PWV is confounded by body size and influenced by smoking, diabetes mellitus, and BP. Weight management, BP control, and smoking cessation may help prevent arterial stiffening associated with obstructive sleep apnea.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

Navigating Into the Future or Driven by the Past.

PubMed

Seligman, Martin E P; Railton, Peter; Baumeister, Roy F; Sripada, Chandra

2013-03-01

Prospection (Gilbert & Wilson, 2007), the representation of possible futures, is a ubiquitous feature of the human mind. Much psychological theory and practice, in contrast, has understood human action as determined by the past and viewed any such teleology (selection of action in light of goals) as a violation of natural law because the future cannot act on the present. Prospection involves no backward causation; rather, it is guidance not by the future itself but by present, evaluative representations of possible future states. These representations can be understood minimally as "If X, then Y" conditionals, and the process of prospection can be understood as the generation and evaluation of these conditionals. We review the history of the attempt to cast teleology out of science, culminating in the failures of behaviorism and psychoanalysis to account adequately for action without teleology. A wide range of evidence suggests that prospection is a central organizing feature of perception, cognition, affect, memory, motivation, and action. The authors speculate that prospection casts new light on why subjectivity is part of consciousness, what is "free" and "willing" in "free will," and on mental disorders and their treatment. Viewing behavior as driven by the past was a powerful framework that helped create scientific psychology, but accumulating evidence in a wide range of areas of research suggests a shift in framework, in which navigation into the future is seen as a core organizing principle of animal and human behavior. © The Author(s) 2013.

SETI in the future - Toward other possible searches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rummel, John D.

1992-01-01

The future prospects of SETI as a scientific endeavor, both in its own right and with respect to the side benefits to science and society, are discussed. Specifically, the consequences of a successful detection and the prospects for follow-on studies in exobiology are addressed.

Motor performance and physical activity as predictors of prospective falls in community-dwelling, older adults by frailty level: Application of wearable technology

PubMed Central

Mohler, M. Jane; Wendel, Christopher S.; Taylor-Piliae, Ruth E.; Toosizadeh, Nima; Najafi, Bijan

2016-01-01

Background Few studies of the association between prospective falls and sensor-based measures of motor performance and physical activity have evaluated subgroups of frailty status separately. Objective To evaluate wearable sensor-based measures of gait, balance, and physical activity (PA) that are predictive of future falls in community-dwelling older adults. Methods The Arizona Frailty Cohort Study in Tucson, Arizona followed community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and over (without baseline cognitive deficit, severe movement disorders, or recent stroke) for falls over six months. Baseline measures included Fried frailty criteria; in-home, and sensor-based gait (normal and fast walk), balance (bipedal eyes open and eyes closed), and spontaneous daily PA over 48 hours, measured using validated wearable technologies. Results Of the 119 participants (36% non-frail, 48% pre-frail, and 16% frail), 48 reported one or more fall (47% of non-frail, 33% of pre-frail, and 47% of frail). Although balance deficit and PA were independent fall predictors in pre-frail and frail groups, they were not sensitive to predict prospective falls in the non-frail group. Even though gait performance deteriorated as frailty increased, gait was not a predictor of prospective falls when participants were stratified based on frailty status. In pre-frail and frail participants combined, center of mass sway (OR= 5.9, 95% CI 2.6 – 13.7), PA mean walking bout duration (OR = 1.1, 95% CI 1.0 – 1.2), PA mean standing bout duration (OR = .94, 95% CI .91 - .99), and a fall in previous 6 months (OR = 7.3, 95% CI 1.5 – 36.4) were independent predictors for prospective falls (AUC: 0.882). Conclusion This study suggests that independent predictors of falls are dependent on frailty status. Among sensor-derived parameters, balance deficit, longer typical walking episodes, and shorter typical standing episodes were the most sensitive predictors of prospective falls in the combined pre-frail and frail sample. Gait deficit was not a sensitive fall predictor in the context of frailty status. PMID:27160666

CDOCKER and lambda λ -dynamics for prospective prediction in D3R Grand Challenge 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xinqiang; Hayes, Ryan L.; Vilseck, Jonah Z.; Charles, Murchtricia K.; Brooks, Charles L.

2018-01-01

The opportunity to prospectively predict ligand bound poses and free energies of binding to the Farnesoid X Receptor in the D3R Grand Challenge 2 provided a useful exercise to evaluate CHARMM based docking (CDOCKER) and λ-dynamics methodologies for use in "real-world" applications in computer aided drug design. In addition to measuring their current performance, several recent methodological developments have been analyzed retrospectively to highlight best procedural practices in future applications. For pose prediction with CDOCKER, when the protein structure used for rigid receptor docking was close to the crystallographic holo structure, reliable poses were obtained. Benzimidazoles, with a known holo receptor structure, were successfully docked with an average RMSD of 0.97 Å. Other non-benzimidazole ligands displayed less accuracy largely because the receptor structures we chose for docking were too different from the experimental holo structures. However, retrospective analysis has shown that when these ligands were re-docked into their holo structures, the average RMSD dropped to 1.18 Å for all ligands. When sulfonamides and spiros were docked with the apo structure, which agrees more with their holo structure than the structures we chose, five out of six ligands were correctly docked. These docking results emphasize the need for flexible receptor docking approaches. For λ-dynamics techniques, including multisite λ-dynamics (MSλD), reasonable agreement with experiment was observed for the 33 ligands investigated; root mean square errors of 2.08 and 1.67 kcal/mol were obtained for free energy sets 1 and 2, respectively. Retrospectively, soft-core potentials, adaptive landscape flattening, and biasing potential replica exchange (BP-REX) algorithms were critical to model large substituent perturbations with sufficient precision and within restrictive timeframes, such as was required with participation in Grand Challenge 2. These developments, their associated benefits, and proposed procedures for their use in future applications are discussed.

CDOCKER and λ-dynamics for prospective prediction in D₃R Grand Challenge 2.

PubMed

Ding, Xinqiang; Hayes, Ryan L; Vilseck, Jonah Z; Charles, Murchtricia K; Brooks, Charles L

2018-01-01

The opportunity to prospectively predict ligand bound poses and free energies of binding to the Farnesoid X Receptor in the D3R Grand Challenge 2 provided a useful exercise to evaluate CHARMM based docking (CDOCKER) and [Formula: see text]-dynamics methodologies for use in "real-world" applications in computer aided drug design. In addition to measuring their current performance, several recent methodological developments have been analyzed retrospectively to highlight best procedural practices in future applications. For pose prediction with CDOCKER, when the protein structure used for rigid receptor docking was close to the crystallographic holo structure, reliable poses were obtained. Benzimidazoles, with a known holo receptor structure, were successfully docked with an average RMSD of 0.97 [Formula: see text]. Other non-benzimidazole ligands displayed less accuracy largely because the receptor structures we chose for docking were too different from the experimental holo structures. However, retrospective analysis has shown that when these ligands were re-docked into their holo structures, the average RMSD dropped to 1.18 [Formula: see text] for all ligands. When sulfonamides and spiros were docked with the apo structure, which agrees more with their holo structure than the structures we chose, five out of six ligands were correctly docked. These docking results emphasize the need for flexible receptor docking approaches. For [Formula: see text]-dynamics techniques, including multisite [Formula: see text]-dynamics (MS[Formula: see text]D), reasonable agreement with experiment was observed for the 33 ligands investigated; root mean square errors of 2.08 and 1.67 kcal/mol were obtained for free energy sets 1 and 2, respectively. Retrospectively, soft-core potentials, adaptive landscape flattening, and biasing potential replica exchange (BP-REX) algorithms were critical to model large substituent perturbations with sufficient precision and within restrictive timeframes, such as was required with participation in Grand Challenge 2. These developments, their associated benefits, and proposed procedures for their use in future applications are discussed.

The child as proband for future parental cardiometabolic disease: the 26-year prospective Princeton Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study.

PubMed

Morrison, John A; Glueck, Charles J; Wang, Ping

2012-04-01

To evaluate children's cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors as predictors of parents' subsequent CVD, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and high blood pressure (HBP). We conducted a 26-year prospective follow-up of 852 5- to 19-year-old black and white schoolchildren (mean age, 12 years; Lipid Research Clinics, 1973-8), and parents (mean age, 40 years) from 519 families in Princeton Schools, Cincinnati, Ohio. Schoolchildren were reassessed in the Princeton Follow-up study 1999-2003 at mean age 39 years; CVD, T2DM, and HBP history of their 1038 parents were reassessed by mean age 66 years. We assessed relationships of childhood risk factors with parental CVD, T2DM, and HBP. Child-probands identified with triglyceride (TG) levels, blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, body mass index (BMI), and glucose level greater than and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels less than established cutoff points. Pediatric HBP (P=.006) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=.018) were predictive of parental CVD at age ≤50 years. Pediatric HBP (P=.02) and high TG (P=.03) were predictive of parental CVD at age ≤60 years. Pediatric high TG (P=.009) and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P=.04) were predictive of parental CVD by age 66 years. Pediatric high BMI (P=.0006) were predictive of parental T2DM. Pediatric high BMI (P=.003) and black race (P=.004) were predictive of parental HBP. Pediatric risk factors identify families with parents at increased risk for CVD, T2DM, and HBP, emphasizing the usefulness of the child as proband. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery

PubMed Central

Tucker, Jalie A.; Cheong, JeeWon; Chandler, Susan D.; Lambert, Brice H.; Pietrzak, Brittney; Kwok, Heather; Davies, Susan L.

2016-01-01

Background As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. The present study compared the predictive utility of this money-based “Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure” (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts. Methods Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of pre-resolution drinking practices and problems; analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks); and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the pre-resolution year. Results Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced pre-resolution allocations to drinking and savings (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.02 ∼ 3.08, p < .05), suggesting it is associated with longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence. Conclusions The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of behavioral allocation. Stable low risk drinking, but not abstinence, requires such regulatory processes. PMID:27775161

Drug Repositioning by Kernel-Based Integration of Molecular Structure, Molecular Activity, and Phenotype Data

PubMed Central

Wang, Yongcui; Chen, Shilong; Deng, Naiyang; Wang, Yong

2013-01-01

Computational inference of novel therapeutic values for existing drugs, i.e., drug repositioning, offers the great prospect for faster and low-risk drug development. Previous researches have indicated that chemical structures, target proteins, and side-effects could provide rich information in drug similarity assessment and further disease similarity. However, each single data source is important in its own way and data integration holds the great promise to reposition drug more accurately. Here, we propose a new method for drug repositioning, PreDR (Predict Drug Repositioning), to integrate molecular structure, molecular activity, and phenotype data. Specifically, we characterize drug by profiling in chemical structure, target protein, and side-effects space, and define a kernel function to correlate drugs with diseases. Then we train a support vector machine (SVM) to computationally predict novel drug-disease interactions. PreDR is validated on a well-established drug-disease network with 1,933 interactions among 593 drugs and 313 diseases. By cross-validation, we find that chemical structure, drug target, and side-effects information are all predictive for drug-disease relationships. More experimentally observed drug-disease interactions can be revealed by integrating these three data sources. Comparison with existing methods demonstrates that PreDR is competitive both in accuracy and coverage. Follow-up database search and pathway analysis indicate that our new predictions are worthy of further experimental validation. Particularly several novel predictions are supported by clinical trials databases and this shows the significant prospects of PreDR in future drug treatment. In conclusion, our new method, PreDR, can serve as a useful tool in drug discovery to efficiently identify novel drug-disease interactions. In addition, our heterogeneous data integration framework can be applied to other problems. PMID:24244318

Previous Open Rotor Research in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanZante, Dale

2011-01-01

Previous Open Rotor noise experience in the United States, current Open Rotor noise research in the United States and current NASA prediction methods activities were presented at a European Union (EU) X-Noise seminar. The invited attendees from EU industries, research establishments and universities discussed prospects for reducing Open Rotor noise and reviewed all technology programs, past and present, dedicated to Open Rotor engine concepts. This workshop was particularly timely because the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) plans to involve Independent Experts in late 2011 in assessing the noise of future low-carbon technologies including the open rotor.

Predicting Ly-alpha intensities in coronal streamers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noci, Giancarlo; Poletto, Giannina; Suess, Steven T.; Wang, A.-H.; Wu, S. T.

1992-01-01

SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) UVCS (Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer) will make long term observations of coronal streamers in UV lines, providing a new tool for the analysis of structures which have been known for decades but are still far from being adequately described. Work to evaluate the Lyman alpha brightness of coronal streamers is reported, adopting the streamer models obtained, via a time dependent numerical relaxation technique. This will yield understanding on the role of geometric versus physical factors in determining the streamer lyman alpha intensity and provide guidelines for UVCS observational operations. Future prospects along this line of research are summarized.

Biopsychosocial Characteristics of Children Who Later Murder: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Lewis, Dorothy Otnow; Moy, Ernest; Jackson, Lori D.; Aaronson, Robert; Restifo, Nicholas; Serra, Susan; Simos, Alexander

2007-01-01

The authors document the childhood neuropsychiatric and family characteristics of nine male subjects who were clinically evaluated as adolescents and were later arrested for murder. Those subjects are compared with 24 incarcerated delinquents who did not go on to commit violent offenses. The future murderers displayed a constellation of biopsychosocial characteristics that included psychotic symptoms, major neurological impairment, a psychotic first-degree relative, violent acts during childhood, and severe physical abuse. The authors relate this combination of factors to prediction of violence and discuss ethical issues that are involved in intervention to prevent violence. PMID:4037127

Prospects for improved understanding of isotopic reactor antineutrino fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebre, Y.; Littlejohn, B. R.; Surukuchi, P. T.

2018-01-01

Predictions of antineutrino fluxes produced by fission isotopes in a nuclear reactor have recently received increased scrutiny due to observed differences in predicted and measured inverse beta decay (IBD) yields, referred to as the "reactor antineutrino flux anomaly." In this paper, global fits are applied to existing IBD yield measurements to produce constraints on antineutrino production by individual plutonium and uranium fission isotopes. We find that fits including measurements from highly U 235 -enriched cores and fits including Daya Bay's new fuel evolution result produce discrepant best-fit IBD yields for U 235 and Pu 239 . This discrepancy can be alleviated in a global analysis of all data sets through simultaneous fitting of Pu 239 , U 235 , and U 238 yields. The measured IBD yield of U 238 in this analysis is (7.02 ±1.65 )×10-43 cm2/fission , nearly two standard deviations below existing predictions. Future hypothetical IBD yield measurements by short-baseline reactor experiments are examined to determine their possible impact on the global understanding of isotopic IBD yields. It is found that future improved short-baseline IBD yield measurements at both high-enriched and low-enriched cores can significantly improve constraints for U 235 , U 238 , and Pu 239 , providing comparable or superior precision to existing conversion- and summation-based antineutrino flux predictions. Systematic and experimental requirements for these future measurements are also investigated.

First Trimester Urine and Serum Metabolomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Prospective Screening Study.

PubMed

Austdal, Marie; Tangerås, Line H; Skråstad, Ragnhild B; Salvesen, Kjell; Austgulen, Rigmor; Iversen, Ann-Charlotte; Bathen, Tone F

2015-09-08

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, are major contributors to maternal morbidity. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of metabolomics to predict preeclampsia and gestational hypertension from urine and serum samples in early pregnancy, and elucidate the metabolic changes related to the diseases. Metabolic profiles were obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of serum and urine samples from 599 women at medium to high risk of preeclampsia (nulliparous or previous preeclampsia/gestational hypertension). Preeclampsia developed in 26 (4.3%) and gestational hypertension in 21 (3.5%) women. Multivariate analyses of the metabolic profiles were performed to establish prediction models for the hypertensive disorders individually and combined. Urinary metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 51.3% and 40% sensitivity, respectively, at 10% false positive rate, with hippurate as the most important metabolite for the prediction. Serum metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 15% and 33% sensitivity, respectively, with increased lipid levels and an atherogenic lipid profile as most important for the prediction. Combining maternal characteristics with the urinary hippurate/creatinine level improved the prediction rates of preeclampsia in a logistic regression model. The study indicates a potential future role of clinical importance for metabolomic analysis of urine in prediction of preeclampsia.

Increased serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is predictive of cocaine relapse outcomes: A prospective study

PubMed Central

D’Sa, Carrol; Fox, Helen C.; Hong, Adam K.; Dileone, Ralph J.; Sinha, Rajita

2011-01-01

Background Cocaine dependence is associated with high relapse rates but few biological markers associated with relapse outcomes have been identified. Extending preclinical research showing a role for central Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in cocaine seeking, we examined whether serum BDNF is altered in abstinent, early recovering, cocaine-dependent individuals and if it is predictive of subsequent relapse risk. Methods Serum samples were collected across three consecutive mornings from 35 treatment-engaged, 3 week abstinent cocaine-dependent inpatients (17M/18F) and 34 demographically matched hospitalized healthy control participants (17M/17F). Cocaine dependent individuals were prospectively followed on days 14, 30 and 90 post-treatment discharge to assess cocaine relapse outcomes. Time to cocaine relapse, number of days of cocaine use (frequency), and amount of cocaine use (quantity) were the main outcome measures. Results High correlations in serum BDNF across days indicated reliable and stable serum BDNF measurements. Significantly higher mean serum BDNF levels were observed for the cocaine-dependent patients compared to healthy control participants (p<.001). Higher serum BDNF levels predicted shorter subsequent time to cocaine relapse (hazard ratio: HR: 1.09, p<.05), greater number of days (p<.05) and higher total amounts of cocaine used (p = .05). Conclusions High serum BDNF levels in recovering cocaine-dependent individuals are predictive of future cocaine relapse outcomes and may represent a clinically relevant marker of relapse risk. These data suggest that serum BDNF levels may provide an indication of relapse risk during early recovery from cocaine dependence. PMID:21741029

Survey Criteria for Fibromyalgia Independently Predict Increased Postoperative Opioid Consumption after Lower Extremity Joint Arthroplasty: A Prospective, Observational Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Brummett, Chad M.; Janda, Allison M.; Schueller, Christa M.; Tsodikov, Alex; Morris, Michelle; Williams, David A.; Clauw, Daniel J.

2013-01-01

Background Variance in pain following total knee and hip arthroplasty may be due to a number of procedural and peripheral factors but also, in some individuals, to aberrant central pain processing as is described in conditions like fibromyalgia. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a prospective, observational cohort study of patients undergoing lower extremity joint arthroplasty. Methods 519 patients were preoperatively phenotyped using validated self-reported pain questionnaires, psychological measures, and health information. In addition to assessing factors previously found to be associated with poor outcomes in arthroplasty, participants also completed the American College of Rheumatology survey criteria for fibromyalgia. Previous studies have suggested that rather than being “present” or “absent,” features of fibromyalgia as measured by this instrument, occur over a wide continuum. Postoperative pain control was assessed by total postoperative opioid consumption. Results Preoperatively, patients with higher fibromyalgia survey scores were younger, more likely to be female, taking more opioids, reported higher pain severity, and had a more negative psychological profile. In the multivariate analysis, the fibromyalgia survey score, younger age, preoperative opioid use, knee (vs. hip), pain severity at baseline, and the anesthetic technique were all predictive of increased postoperative opioid consumption. Conclusions Using the survey criteria for fibromyalgia distinct phenotypic differences were found, and the measure was independently predictive of opioid consumption. This self-report measure may provide an additional simple means of predicting postoperative pain outcomes and analgesic requirements. Future studies are needed to determine whether tailored therapies can improve postoperative pain control in this population. PMID:24343289

Cardiovascular recovery from psychological and physiological challenge and risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality

PubMed Central

Panaite, Vanessa; Salomon, Kristen; Jin, Alvin; Rottenberg, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Objective Exaggerated cardiovascular (CV) reactivity to laboratory challenge has been shown to predict future CV morbidity and mortality. CV recovery, has been less studied, and has yielded inconsistent findings, possibly due to presence of moderators. Reviews on the relationship between CV recovery and CV outcomes have been limited to cross-sectional studies and have not considered methodological factors. We performed a comprehensive meta-analytic review of the prospective literature investigating CV recovery to physical and psychological challenge and adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Methods We searched PsycINFO and PubMed for prospective studies investigating the relationship between CV recovery and adverse CV outcomes. Studies were coded for variables of interest and for effect sizes (ES). We conducted a random effects weighted meta-analysis. Moderators were examined with ANOVA-analog and meta-regression analyses. Results Thirty seven studies met inclusion criteria (N=125386). Impaired recovery from challenge predicted adverse cardiovascular outcomes (summary effect, r = .17, p < .001). Physical challenge was associated with larger predictive effects than psychological challenge. Moderator analyses revealed that recovery measured at 1 minute post-exercise, passive recovery, use of mortality as an outcome measure, and older sample age were associated with larger effects. Conclusions Poor recovery from laboratory challenges predicts adverse CV outcomes, with recovery from exercise serving as a particularly strong predictor of CV outcomes. The overall ES for recovery and CV outcomes is similar to that observed for CV reactivity and suggests that the study of recovery may have incremental value for understanding adverse CV outcomes. PMID:25829236

Predictive Power of Prospective Physical Education Teachers' Attitudes towards Educational Technologies for Their Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varol, Yaprak Kalemoglu

2015-01-01

The aim of the research is to determine the predictive power of prospective physical education teachers' attitudes towards educational technologies for their technological pedagogical content knowledge. In this study, a relational research model was used on a study group that consisted of 529 (M[subscript age]=21.49, SD=1.44) prospective physical…

Time perspective and weight management behaviors in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes: a mediational analysis.

PubMed

Hall, Peter A; Fong, Geoffrey T; Cheng, Alice Y

2012-12-01

The primary objective of the current study was to examine the extent to which domain-specific time perspective predicts weight management behaviors (dietary behavior and physical activity) among those newly diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes. A secondary objective was to test potential mediators of the hypothesized effect (behavioral intention, self-efficacy and control beliefs). A total of 204 adults newly diagnosed (≤6 months) with Type 2 diabetes participated in the study, which included a baseline assessment of domain-general and domain-specific time perspective, as well as strength of intention to perform two weight-management behaviors (dietary choice and physical activity); both weight-management behaviors were assessed again at 6 month follow-up. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed a prospective association between domain-specific time perspective and uptake of weight management behaviors. Individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM possessing a future-oriented time perspective reported making less frequent fatty food choices and greater increases in physical activity over the 6-month follow-up interval. These effects were selectively mediated by intention strength, and not competing social cognitive variables. For both behaviors, the total effects and meditational models were robust to adjustments for demographics, body composition and disease variables. A future-oriented time perspective is prospectively associated with superior uptake of weight management behaviors among those with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes. The facilitating effect of future-oriented thinking appears to occur via enhanced strength of intentions to perform weight management behaviors.

Role of resilient personality on lower achieving first grade students' current and future achievement

PubMed Central

Kwok, Oi-man; Hughes, Jan N.; Luo, Wen

2007-01-01

This study investigated a measurement model of personality resilience and the contribution of personality resilience to lower achieving first grade students' academic achievement. Participants were 445 ethnically diverse children who at entrance to first grade scored below their school district median on a test of literacy. Participants were administered an individual achievement test in first grade and 1 year later. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed a second-order latent construct of resilient personality defined by teacher-rated conscientiousness, agreeableness, and ego-resiliency that was distinct from measures of externalizing behaviors and IQ. Using latent structural equation modeling and controlling for baseline economic adversity, IQ, and externalizing symptoms, resilient personality predicted children's concurrent and future achievement (controlling also for baseline achievement in the prospective analyses). Model fit was invariant across gender. PMID:18084626

The future: biomarkers, biosensors, neuroinformatics, and e-neuropsychiatry.

PubMed

Lowe, Christopher R

2011-01-01

The emergence of molecular biomarkers for psychological, psychiatric, and neurodegenerative disorders is beginning to change current diagnostic paradigms for this debilitating family of mental illnesses. The development of new genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic tools has created the prospect of sensitive and specific biochemical tests to replace traditional pen-and-paper questionnaires. In the future, the realization of biosensor technologies, point-of-care testing, and the fusion of clinical biomarker data, electroencephalogram, and MRI data with the patient's past medical history, biopatterns, and prognosis may create personalized bioprofiles or fingerprints for brain disorders. Further, the application of mobile communications technology and grid computing to support data-, computation- and knowledge-based tasks will assist disease prediction, diagnosis, prognosis, and compliance monitoring. It is anticipated that, ultimately, mobile devices could become the next generation of personalized pharmacies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Learning Approaches of Prospective Teachers and Their Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gurlen, Eda; Turan, Sevgi; Senemoglu, Nuray

2013-01-01

To prepare for future professional challenges, prospective teachers should acquire the capabilities for independent learning. Prospective teachers should know how to learn effectively. In this article, prospective teachers' learning approaches, learning preference and the relationship between learning preference, learning approaches with…

Prospective Reciprocal Relations between Physical Activity and Depression in Female Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jerstad, Sarah J.; Boutelle, Kerri N.; Ness, Kirsten K.; Stice, Eric

2010-01-01

Objective: Although an inverse correlation between physical activity and depression among adolescents has been found in research, this relation has seldom been examined prospectively. Thus, we tested whether physical activity reduces risk for future escalations in depression and whether depression decreases likelihood of future change in physical…

The Electronic Age and Libraries: Present Problems and Future Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Igwe, P. O. E.

1986-01-01

Summarizes impact of the electronic age and role of the library focusing on the situation in Nigeria and concern for the new age; problems of Nigerian libraries and librarians (developing economy, responsibility for development, political situation, technological problems, lack of personnel); future prospects; and suggestions for present.…

Force platform measurements as predictors of falls among older people - a review.

PubMed

Piirtola, Maarit; Era, Pertti

2006-01-01

Poor postural balance is one of the major risk factors for falling. A great number of reports have analyzed the risk factors and predictors of falls but the results have for the most part been unclear and partly contradictory. Objective data on these matters are thus urgently needed. The force platform technique has widely been used as a tool to assess balance. However, the ability of force platform measures to predict falls remains unknown. The purpose of this systematic review was to extract and critically review the findings of prospective studies where force platform measurements have been used as predictors of falls among elderly populations. The study was done as a systematic literature review. PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and CINAHL databases from 1950 to April 2005 were used. The review includes prospective follow-up studies using the force platform as a tool to measure postural balance. Nine original prospective studies were included in the final analyses. In five studies fall-related outcomes were associated with some force platform measures and in the remaining four studies associations were not found. For the various parameters derived on the basis of the force platform data, the mean speed of the mediolateral (ML) movement of the center of pressure (COP) during normal standing with the eyes open and closed, the mean amplitude of the ML movement of the COP with the eyes open and closed, and the root-mean-square value of the ML displacement of COP were the indicators that showed significant associations with future falls. Measures related to dynamic posturography (moving platforms) were not predictive of falls. Despite a wide search only a few prospective follow-up studies using the force platform technique to measure postural balance and a reliable registration of subsequent falls were found. The results suggest that certain aspects of force platform data may have predictive value for subsequent falls, especially various indicators of the lateral control of posture. However, the small number of studies available makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. Copyright 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The response of tropical rainforests to drought-lessons from recent research and future prospects.

PubMed

Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Stahl, Clément; Wagner, Fabien; Hérault, Bruno

We review the recent findings on the influence of drought on tree mortality, growth or ecosystem functioning in tropical rainforests. Drought plays a major role in shaping tropical rainforests and the response mechanisms are highly diverse and complex. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical rainforests on the three continents. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance. Tropical rainforest ecosystems are characterized by high annual rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall regularly fluctuates during the year and seasonal soil droughts do occur. Over the past decades, a number of extreme droughts have hit tropical rainforests, not only in Amazonia but also in Asia and Africa. The influence of drought events on tree mortality and growth or on ecosystem functioning (carbon and water fluxes) in tropical rainforest ecosystems has been studied intensively, but the response mechanisms are complex. Herein, we review the recent findings related to the response of tropical forest ecosystems to seasonal and extreme droughts and the current knowledge about the future of these ecosystems. This review emphasizes the progress made over recent years and the importance of the studies conducted under extreme drought conditions or in through-fall exclusion experiments in understanding the response of these ecosystems. It also points to the great diversity and complexity of the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to drought. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical forest regions. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance.

Errorless learning of prospective memory tasks: An experimental investigation in people with memory disorders

PubMed Central

Fish, Jessica E.; Manly, Tom; Kopelman, Michael D.; Morris, Robin G.

2015-01-01

The term prospective memory (PM) refers to memory for future intentions. PM problems are frequent in people with cognitive impairment and, because they are central to the realisation of many everyday goals, are important in rehabilitation. Event-based PM tasks (EBPM) are environmentally-cued and have primarily mnemonic demands, whereas time-based PM tasks (TBPM) require self-initiated retrieval, and have greater executive demands. Errorless learning (EL) is an encoding method that results in superior retrospective memory compared with “errorful” learning (EF). As this EL advantage (ELA) likely stems from its reduced explicit memory demands, and there is no such advantage for executive tasks, a greater ELA for EBPM than TBPM was predicted. Fourteen adults with neurological memory impairment completed PM tasks under four counterbalanced conditions: EL of EBPM, EL of TBPM, EF of EBPM, and EF of TBPM. A significant ELA was observed for EBPM (d = .63), but not TBPM (d = –.01). These results extend the evidence for EL within cognitive rehabilitation, by showing for the first time that the method can benefit future action in addition to retrospective memory. The clinical implications are also clear: errorless learning techniques may be usefully employed to support completion of day-to-day EBPM tasks. PMID:24894460

The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kendell, Michelle; Beales, Darren; O'Sullivan, Peter; Rabey, Martin; Hill, Jonathan; Smith, Anne

2018-04-01

In people with chronic non-specific low back pain (LBP), what is the predictive and discriminative validity of the STarT Back Tool (SBT) for pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change at 1-year follow-up? What is the profile of the SBT risk subgroups with respect to demographic variables, pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and psychological measures? Prospective cohort study. A total of 290 adults with dominant axial LBP of≥3months' duration recruited from the general community, and private physiotherapy, psychology, and pain-management clinics in Western Australia. The 1-year follow-up measures were pain intensity, LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change. Outcomes were collected on 264 participants. The SBT categorised 82 participants (28%) as low risk, 116 (40%) as medium risk, and 92 (32%) as high risk. The risk subgroups differed significantly (p<0.05) on baseline pain, disability, and psychological scores. The SBT's predictive ability was strongest for disability: RR was 2.30 (95% CI 1.28 to 4.10) in the medium-risk group and 2.86 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.11) in the high-risk group. The SBT's predictive ability was weaker for pain: RR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.51) in the medium-risk group and 1.26 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.52) in the high-risk group. For the SBT total score, the AUC was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.77) for disability and 0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.71) for pain. This was the first large study to investigate the SBT in a population exclusively with chronic LBP. The SBT provided an acceptable indication of 1-year disability, had poor predictive and discriminative ability for future pain, and was unable to predict or discriminate global perceived change. In this cohort with chronic non-specific LBP, the SBT's predictive and discriminative abilities were restricted to disability at 1year. [Kendell M, Beales D, O'Sullivan P, Rabey M, Hill J, Smith A (2018) The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study. Journal of Physiotherapy 64: 107-113]. Copyright © 2018 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sleep Improves Prospective Remembering by Facilitating Spontaneous-Associative Retrieval Processes

PubMed Central

Diekelmann, Susanne; Wilhelm, Ines; Wagner, Ullrich; Born, Jan

2013-01-01

Memories are of the past but for the future, enabling individuals to implement intended plans and actions at the appropriate time. Prospective memory is the specific ability to remember and execute an intended behavior at some designated point in the future. Although sleep is well-known to benefit the consolidation of memories for past events, its role for prospective memory is still not well understood. Here, we show that sleep as compared to wakefulness after prospective memory instruction enhanced the successful execution of prospective memories two days later. We further show that sleep benefited both components of prospective memory, i.e. to remember that something has to be done (prospective component) and to remember what has to be done (retrospective component). Finally, sleep enhanced prospective remembering particularly when attentional resources were reduced during task execution, suggesting that subjects after sleep were able to recruit additional spontaneous-associative retrieval processes to remember intentions successfully. Our findings indicate that sleep supports the maintenance of prospective memory over time by strengthening intentional memory representations, thus favoring the spontaneous retrieval of the intended action at the appropriate time. PMID:24143246

Blood eosinophil levels as a biomarker in COPD.

PubMed

Brusselle, Guy; Pavord, Ian D; Landis, Sarah; Pascoe, Steven; Lettis, Sally; Morjaria, Nikhil; Barnes, Neil; Hilton, Emma

2018-05-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disorder and patients respond differently to treatment. Blood eosinophils are a potential biomarker to stratify patient subsets for COPD therapy. We reviewed the value of blood eosinophils in predicting exacerbation risk and response to corticosteroid treatment in the available literature (PubMed articles in English; keywords: "COPD" and "eosinophil"; published prior to May 2017). Overall, clinical data suggest that in patients with a history of COPD exacerbations, a higher blood eosinophil count predicts an increased risk of future exacerbations and is associated with improved response to treatment with inhaled corticosteroids (in combination with long-acting bronchodilator[s]). Blood eosinophils are therefore a promising biomarker for phenotyping patients with COPD, although prospective studies are needed to assess blood eosinophils as a biomarker of corticosteroid response for this. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Systematic Review of Biomarkers and Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes: An Overview of Epidemiological, Prediction and Aetiological Research Literature

PubMed Central

Sahlqvist, Anna-Stina; Lotta, Luca; Brosnan, Julia M.; Vollenweider, Peter; Giabbanelli, Philippe; Nunez, Derek J.; Waterworth, Dawn; Scott, Robert A.; Langenberg, Claudia; Wareham, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

Background Blood-based or urinary biomarkers may play a role in quantifying the future risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and in understanding possible aetiological pathways to disease. However, no systematic review has been conducted that has identified and provided an overview of available biomarkers for incident T2D. We aimed to systematically review the associations of biomarkers with risk of developing T2D and to highlight evidence gaps in the existing literature regarding the predictive and aetiological value of these biomarkers and to direct future research in this field. Methods and Findings We systematically searched PubMed MEDLINE (January 2000 until March 2015) and Embase (until January 2016) databases for observational studies of biomarkers and incident T2D according to the 2009 PRISMA guidelines. We also searched availability of meta-analyses, Mendelian randomisation and prediction research for the identified biomarkers. We reviewed 3910 titles (705 abstracts) and 164 full papers and included 139 papers from 69 cohort studies that described the prospective relationships between 167 blood-based or urinary biomarkers and incident T2D. Only 35 biomarkers were reported in large scale studies with more than 1000 T2D cases, and thus the evidence for association was inconclusive for the majority of biomarkers. Fourteen biomarkers have been investigated using Mendelian randomisation approaches. Only for one biomarker was there strong observational evidence of association and evidence from genetic association studies that was compatible with an underlying causal association. In additional search for T2D prediction, we found only half of biomarkers were examined with formal evidence of predictive value for a minority of these biomarkers. Most biomarkers did not enhance the strength of prediction, but the strongest evidence for prediction was for biomarkers that quantify measures of glycaemia. Conclusions This study presents an extensive review of the current state of the literature to inform the strategy for future interrogation of existing and newly described biomarkers for T2D. Many biomarkers have been reported to be associated with the risk of developing T2D. The evidence of their value in adding to understanding of causal pathways to disease is very limited so far. The utility of most biomarkers remains largely unknown in clinical prediction. Future research should focus on providing good genetic instruments across consortia for possible biomarkers in Mendelian randomisation, prioritising biomarkers for measurement in large-scale cohort studies and examining predictive utility of biomarkers for a given context. PMID:27788146

Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

2018-04-01

Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (P<0.001), and prior IBD surgery (P<0.001). High telephone encounter categories had significantly more hospitalizations (P<0.001), IBD surgery (P<0.001), worse quality of life (P<0.001), more corticosteroid (P<0.001), biological (P<0.001), and opiate prescriptions (P<0.001). High telephone encounter frequency patients amassed higher total available charges in each year (P<0.001) and over the 3 years (P<0.001). Telephone encounters in 2009 (P=0.02) and 2010 (P<0.001) were significantly associated with financial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

Prospective risk factors for alcohol misuse in late adolescence.

PubMed

Ellickson, S L; Tucker, J S; Klein, D J; McGuigan, K A

2001-11-01

This longitudinal study investigated Grade-7 and Grade-10 risk factors for alcohol misuse at Grade 12. Alcohol misuse was conceptualized as problem-related drinking (e.g., missing school), high-risk drinking (e.g., drunk driving) and high consumption. Prospective analyses using two-part models predicted any alcohol misuse and the amount of misuse (given that some has occurred) for over 4,200 (52% male) participants in the RAND Adolescent Panel Study. Predictor variables were demographics, substance use and exposure, prodrug attitudes, rebelliousness and deviant behavior, self-esteem, family structure and relations, and grades. Grade-7 predictors of alcohol misuse 5 years later included early drinking onset, parental drinking, future intentions to drink, cigarette offers, difficulty resisting pressures to smoke, being white, being male, having an older sibling, deviant behavior and poor grades. By Grade 10, predictors of alcohol misuse 2 years later included drinking and marijuana use by self and peers, future intentions to drink, difficulty resisting pressures to drink and use marijuana, being male, coming from a disrupted family and deviant behavior. Somewhat different predictors were identified for problem-related, high-risk and high consumption drinking, emphasizing the importance of investigating multiple dimensions of misuse. The high social acceptability of alcohol use makes prevention difficult. Curbing alcohol misuse may be a more attainable goal than preventing any use. These results indicate that predictors of misuse in late adolescence can be identified by Grade 7 and are generally visible and modifiable. Prevention efforts should begin by early adolescence, address both familial and peer influences to drink and use other substances, and take into account problems that predict alcohol misuse (e.g., poor academic performance and early deviant behavior).

Household economic resources, labour-market advantage and health problems - a study on causal relationships using prospective register data.

PubMed

Aittomäki, Akseli; Martikainen, Pekka; Laaksonen, Mikko; Lahelma, Eero; Rahkonen, Ossi

2012-10-01

Our aim was to find out whether the associations between health and both individual and household economic position reflected a causal effect on health of household affluence and consumption potential. We attempted to separate this effect from health-selection effects, in other words the potential effect of health on economic position, and from various effects related to occupational position and prestige that might correlate with the economic indicators. We made a distinction between individual labour-market advantage and household economic resources in order to reflect these theoretical definitions. Our aim was to test and compare two hypotheses: 1) low household economic resources lead to an increase in health problems later on, and 2) health problems are disadvantageous on the labour market, and consequently decrease the level of economic resources. We used prospective register data obtained from the databases of Statistics Finland and constituting an 11-per-cent random sample of the Finnish population in 1993-2006. Health problems were measured in terms of sickness allowance paid by the Finnish Social Insurance Institution, household economic resources in terms of household-equivalent disposable income and taxable wealth, and labour-market advantage in terms of individual taxable income and months of unemployment. We used structural equation models (n = 211,639) to examine the hypothesised causal pathways. Low household economic resources predicted future health problems, and health problems predicted future deterioration in labour-market advantage. The effect of economic resources on health problems was somewhat stronger. These results suggest that accumulated exposure to low economic resources leads to increasing health problems, and that this causal mechanism is a more significant source of persistent health inequalities than health problems that bring about a permanent decrease in economic resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poor anaerobic power/capability and static balance predicted prospective musculoskeletal injuries among Soldiers of the 101st Airborne (Air Assault) Division.

PubMed

Nagai, Takashi; Lovalekar, Mita; Wohleber, Meleesa F; Perlsweig, Katherine A; Wirt, Michael D; Beals, Kim

2017-11-01

Musculoskeletal injuries have negatively impacted tactical readiness. The identification of prospective and modifiable risk factors of preventable musculoskeletal injuries can guide specific injury prevention strategies for Soldiers and health care providers. To analyze physiological and neuromuscular characteristics as predictors of preventable musculoskeletal injuries. Prospective-cohort study. A total of 491 Soldiers were enrolled and participated in the baseline laboratory testing, including body composition, aerobic capacity, anaerobic power/capacity, muscular strength, flexibility, static balance, and landing biomechanics. After reviewing their medical charts, 275 male Soldiers who met the criteria were divided into two groups: with injuries (INJ) and no injuries (NOI). Simple and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and significant predictors of musculoskeletal injuries (p<0.05). The final multiple logistic regression model included the static balance with eyes-closed and peak anaerobic power as predictors of future injuries (p<0.001). The current results highlighted the importance of anaerobic power/capacity and static balance. High intensity training and balance exercise should be incorporated in their physical training as countermeasures. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. All rights reserved.

Future thinking instructions improve prospective memory performance in adolescents.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Kretschmer, Anett; Schnitzspahn, Katharina Marlene

2017-07-01

Studies on prospective memory (PM) development in adolescents point to age-related increases through to adulthood. The goal of the present study was to examine whether instructing adolescents to engage in an episodic prospection of themselves executing future actions (i.e., future thinking) when forming an intention would improve their PM performance and reduce age-related differences. Further, we set out to explore whether future thinking instructions result in stronger memory traces and/or stronger cue-context associations by evaluating retrospective memory for the PM cues after task completion and monitoring costs during PM task processing. Adolescents and young adults were allocated to either the future thinking, repeated-encoding or standard condition. As expected, adolescents had fewer correct PM responses than young adults. Across age groups, PM performance in the standard condition was lower than in the other encoding conditions. Importantly, the results indicate a significant interaction of age by encoding condition. While adolescents benefited most from future thinking instructions, young adults performed best in the repeated-encoding condition. The results also indicate that the beneficial effects of future thinking may result from deeper intention-encoding through the simulation of future task performance.

Predictors of Adolescent Outcomes among 4–6 Year Old Children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Lee, Steve S.; Sibley, Margaret H.; Applegate, Brooks; Molina, Brooke S. G.; Pelham, William E.

2015-01-01

Children who met DSM-IV criteria for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) with functional impairment in at least one setting at 4–6 years of age were followed prospectively through age 18 years. On average, the 125 children (107 boys) with ADHD at baseline improved over time, but still continued to exhibit more symptoms, functional impairment, and risky behavior through adolescence than demographically matched healthy comparison children. These findings support the predictive validity of the diagnosis of ADHD at younger ages by demonstrating that the symptoms and impairment are enduring. Nonetheless, there were marked variations in developmental outcomes. Among children with ADHD, higher numbers of inattention and hyperactivity-impulsivity symptoms and higher number of concurrent symptoms (oppositional, conduct disorder, anxiety, and depression) measured at baseline each predicted higher future levels of the same dimension of symptoms. In addition, higher baseline levels of inattention, oppositional, conduct disorder, and anxiety symptoms predicted greater future functional impairment. Among children with ADHD, girls and children from families with lower family incomes had relatively poorer outcomes. Although outcomes varied along a continuum, approximately 10% of the children with ADHD at 4–6 years could be classified as functioning in the normative range on multiple measures during 15–18 years. Although this finding awaits replication, lower levels of hyperactivity-impulsivity symptoms at 4–6 years predicted more normative functioning during adolescence. These findings suggest that ADHD identified in early childhood predicts an increased likelihood of functional impairment through adolescence for most, but not all, children. PMID:26854503

Conceptual Paradigms and Empirical Investigations for Evaluating INTELSAT's Past Performance and Future Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snow, Marcellus S.

This paper summarizes the results of a recent study of the past performance and future prospects of the International Telecommunications Satellite (INTELSAT) Organization. First, an overview of INTELSAT's history is provided and major policy issues are detailed. Five alternative paradigms are then presented through which to evaluate INTELSAT's…

Neutrino Phenomenology: Highlights of Oscillation Results and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, Srubabati

2016-04-01

In this talk the current status of neutrino oscillation parameters are presented. The prospects of determination of neutrino mass hierarchy, octant of θ23 and the CP phase δCP in future long-baseline and atmospheric experiments are reviewed. The impact of precision measurement of oscillation parameters on neutrino mass models are also discussed.

Stylistics in Teacher Training: Research Programs and Future Prospects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ventura, Ana Clara

2016-01-01

The aim of this research is to analyse and systematize the conceptual and empirical bases of the available literature on research approaches, objects of study, and future prospects in the field of stylistics, in order to encourage best practice in teacher training. Three research approaches are presented: the empiricist-behaviorist approach, the…

Early identification of work-related stress predicted sickness absence in employed women with musculoskeletal or mental disorders: a prospective, longitudinal study in a primary health care setting.

PubMed

Holmgren, Kristina; Fjällström-Lundgren, Malin; Hensing, Gunnel

2013-03-01

The objectives were to identify work-related stress, and to analyse whether or not work-related stress served to predict sick-leave in a population of employed women who saw a doctor due to musculoskeletal or mental disorder at primary health care centres. This prospective study was based on data collected with the Work Stress Questionnaire (WSQ) at baseline 2008 and at follow-up 2009 in the primary health care centres in western Sweden. A total of 198 women participated. High perceived stress owing to indistinct organization and conflicts at baseline increased the risk for sick-leave 8 days or longer at follow-up. The adjusted relative risk (RR) was 2.50 (1.14-5.49). The combination of high stress perception owing to indistinct organization and high stress perception owing to individual demands and commitment increased the risk for sickness absence of 8 days or longer with an adjusted RR of 4.34 (1.72-10.99). Work-related stress predicted sick-leave during the follow-up at 12 months. The WSQ seemed to be useful in identifying women at risk of future sick-leave. Thus, it can be recommended to introduce questions and questionnaires on work-related stress in primary health care settings to early identify women with the need for preventive measures in order to decrease risk for sick-leave due to work-related stress.

Development and Validation of a qRT-PCR Classifier for Lung Cancer Prognosis

PubMed Central

Chen, Guoan; Kim, Sinae; Taylor, Jeremy MG; Wang, Zhuwen; Lee, Oliver; Ramnath, Nithya; Reddy, Rishindra M; Lin, Jules; Chang, Andrew C; Orringer, Mark B; Beer, David G

2011-01-01

Purpose This prospective study aimed to develop a robust and clinically-applicable method to identify high-risk early stage lung cancer patients and then to validate this method for use in future translational studies. Patients and Methods Three published Affymetrix microarray data sets representing 680 primary tumors were used in the survival-related gene selection procedure using clustering, Cox model and random survival forest (RSF) analysis. A final set of 91 genes was selected and tested as a predictor of survival using a qRT-PCR-based assay utilizing an independent cohort of 101 lung adenocarcinomas. Results The RSF model built from 91 genes in the training set predicted patient survival in an independent cohort of 101 lung adenocarcinomas, with a prediction error rate of 26.6%. The mortality risk index (MRI) was significantly related to survival (Cox model p < 0.00001) and separated all patients into low, medium, and high-risk groups (HR = 1.00, 2.82, 4.42). The MRI was also related to survival in stage 1 patients (Cox model p = 0.001), separating patients into low, medium, and high-risk groups (HR = 1.00, 3.29, 3.77). Conclusions The development and validation of this robust qRT-PCR platform allows prediction of patient survival with early stage lung cancer. Utilization will now allow investigators to evaluate it prospectively by incorporation into new clinical trials with the goal of personalized treatment of lung cancer patients and improving patient survival. PMID:21792073

The use of machine learning for the identification of peripheral artery disease and future mortality risk.

PubMed

Ross, Elsie Gyang; Shah, Nigam H; Dalman, Ronald L; Nead, Kevin T; Cooke, John P; Leeper, Nicholas J

2016-11-01

A key aspect of the precision medicine effort is the development of informatics tools that can analyze and interpret "big data" sets in an automated and adaptive fashion while providing accurate and actionable clinical information. The aims of this study were to develop machine learning algorithms for the identification of disease and the prognostication of mortality risk and to determine whether such models perform better than classical statistical analyses. Focusing on peripheral artery disease (PAD), patient data were derived from a prospective, observational study of 1755 patients who presented for elective coronary angiography. We employed multiple supervised machine learning algorithms and used diverse clinical, demographic, imaging, and genomic information in a hypothesis-free manner to build models that could identify patients with PAD and predict future mortality. Comparison was made to standard stepwise linear regression models. Our machine-learned models outperformed stepwise logistic regression models both for the identification of patients with PAD (area under the curve, 0.87 vs 0.76, respectively; P = .03) and for the prediction of future mortality (area under the curve, 0.76 vs 0.65, respectively; P = .10). Both machine-learned models were markedly better calibrated than the stepwise logistic regression models, thus providing more accurate disease and mortality risk estimates. Machine learning approaches can produce more accurate disease classification and prediction models. These tools may prove clinically useful for the automated identification of patients with highly morbid diseases for which aggressive risk factor management can improve outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of emotion on prospection during decision-making.

PubMed

Worthy, Darrell A; Byrne, Kaileigh A; Fields, Sherecce

2014-01-01

In two experiments we examined the role of emotion, specifically worry, anxiety, and mood, on prospection during decision-making. Worry is a particularly relevant emotion to study in the context of prospection because high levels of worry may make individuals more aversive toward the uncertainty associated with the prospect of obtaining future improvements in rewards or states. Thus, high levels of worry might lead to reduced prospection during decision-making and enhance preference for immediate over delayed rewards. In Experiment 1 participants performed a two-choice dynamic decision-making task where they were required to choose between one option (the decreasing option) which provided larger immediate rewards but declines in future states, and another option (the increasing option) which provided smaller immediate rewards but improvements in future states, making it the optimal choice. High levels of worry were associated with poorer performance in the task. Additionally, fits of a sophisticated reinforcement-learning model that incorporated both reward-based and state-based information suggested that individuals reporting high levels of worry gave greater weight to the immediate rewards they would receive on each trial than to the degree to which each action would lead to improvements in their future state. In Experiment 2 we found that high levels of worry were associated with greater delay discounting using a standard delay discounting task. Combined, the results suggest that high levels of worry are associated with reduced prospection during decision-making. We attribute these results to high worriers' aversion toward the greater uncertainty associated with attempting to improve future rewards than to maximize immediate reward. These results have implications for researchers interested in the effects of emotion on cognition, and suggest that emotion strongly affects the focus on temporal outcomes during decision-making.

Neural Network of Predictive Motor Timing in the Context of Gender Differences

PubMed Central

Lošák, Jan; Kašpárek, Tomáš; Vaníček, Jiří; Bareš, Martin

2016-01-01

Time perception is an essential part of our everyday lives, in both the prospective and the retrospective domains. However, our knowledge of temporal processing is mainly limited to the networks responsible for comparing or maintaining specific intervals or frequencies. In the presented fMRI study, we sought to characterize the neural nodes engaged specifically in predictive temporal analysis, the estimation of the future position of an object with varying movement parameters, and the contingent neuroanatomical signature of differences in behavioral performance between genders. The established dominant cerebellar engagement offers novel evidence in favor of a pivotal role of this structure in predictive short-term timing, overshadowing the basal ganglia reported together with the frontal cortex as dominant in retrospective temporal processing in the subsecond spectrum. Furthermore, we discovered lower performance in this task and massively increased cerebellar activity in women compared to men, indicative of strategy differences between the genders. This promotes the view that predictive temporal computing utilizes comparable structures in the retrospective timing processes, but with a definite dominance of the cerebellum. PMID:27019753

Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

PubMed

Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

2015-10-01

The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Impaired executive function can predict recurrent falls in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Mak, Margaret K; Wong, Adrian; Pang, Marco Y

2014-12-01

To examine whether impairment in executive function independently predicts recurrent falls in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Prospective cohort study. University motor control research laboratory. A convenience sample of community-dwelling people with PD (N=144) was recruited from a patient self-help group and movement disorders clinics. Not applicable. Executive function was assessed with the Mattis Dementia Rating Scale Initiation/Perseveration (MDRS-IP) subtest, and fear of falling (FoF) with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale. All participants were followed up for 12 months to record the number of monthly fall events. Forty-two people with PD had at least 2 falls during the follow-up period and were classified as recurrent fallers. After accounting for demographic variables and fall history (P=.001), multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the ABC scores (P=.014) and MDRS-IP scores (P=.006) were significantly associated with future recurrent falls among people with PD. The overall accuracy of the prediction was 85.9%. With the use of the significant predictors identified in multiple logistic regression analysis, a prediction model determined by the logistic function was generated: Z = 1.544 + .378 (fall history) - .045 (ABC) - .145 (MDRS-IP). Impaired executive function is a significant predictor of future recurrent falls in people with PD. Participants with executive dysfunction and greater FoF at baseline had a significantly greater risk of sustaining a recurrent fall within the subsequent 12 months. Copyright © 2014 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prognostic value of kidney transplant center report cards.

PubMed

Schold, J D; Buccini, L D; Heaphy, E L G; Goldfarb, D A; Sehgal, A R; Fung, J; Poggio, E D; Kattan, M W

2013-07-01

SRTR report cards provide the basis for quality measurement of US transplant centers. There is limited data evaluating the prognostic value of report cards, informing whether they are predictive of prospective patient outcomes. Using national SRTR data, we simulated report cards and calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for kidney transplant centers over five distinct eras. We ranked centers based on SMR and evaluated outcomes for patients transplanted the year following reports. Recipients transplanted at the 50th, 100th and 200th ranked centers had 18% (AHR = 1.18, 1.13-1.22), 38% (AHR = 1.38, 1.28-1.49) and 91% (AHR = 1.91, 1.64-2.21) increased hazard for 1-year mortality relative to recipients at the top-ranked center. Risks were attenuated but remained significant for long-term outcomes. Patients transplanted at centers meeting low-performance criteria in the prior period had 40% (AHR = 1.40, 1.22-1.68) elevated hazard for 1-year mortality in the prospective period. Centers' SMR from the report card was highly predictive (c-statistics > 0.77) for prospective center SMRs and there was significant correlation between centers' SMR from the report card period and the year following (ρ = 0.57, p < 0.001). Although results do not mitigate potential biases of report cards for measuring quality, they do indicate strong prognostic value for future outcomes. Findings also highlight that outcomes are associated with center ranking across a continuum rather than solely at performance margins. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

External validation of the Probability of repeated admission (Pra) risk prediction tool in older community-dwelling people attending general practice: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wallace, Emma; McDowell, Ronald; Bennett, Kathleen; Fahey, Tom; Smith, Susan M

2016-11-14

Emergency admission is associated with the potential for adverse events in older people and risk prediction models are available to identify those at highest risk of admission. The aim of this study was to externally validate and compare the performance of the Probability of repeated admission (Pra) risk model and a modified version (incorporating a multimorbidity measure) in predicting emergency admission in older community-dwelling people. 15 general practices (GPs) in the Republic of Ireland. n=862, ≥70 years, community-dwelling people prospectively followed up for 2 years (2010-2012). Pra risk model (original and modified) calculated for baseline year where ≥0.5 denoted high risk (patient questionnaire, GP medical record review) of future emergency admission. Emergency admission over 1 year (GP medical record review). descriptive statistics, model discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic). Of 862 patients, a total of 154 (18%) had ≥1 emergency admission(s) in the follow-up year. 63 patients (7%) were classified as high risk by the original Pra and of these 26 (41%) were admitted. The modified Pra classified 391 (45%) patients as high risk and 103 (26%) were subsequently admitted. Both models demonstrated only poor discrimination (original Pra: c-statistic 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.70); modified Pra: c-statistic 0.67 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.72)). When categorised according to risk-category model, specificity was highest for the original Pra at cut-point of ≥0.5 denoting high risk (95%), and for the modified Pra at cut-point of ≥0.7 (95%). Both models overestimated the number of admissions across all risk strata. While the original Pra model demonstrated poor discrimination, model specificity was high and a small number of patients identified as high risk. Future validation studies should examine higher cut-points denoting high risk for the modified Pra, which has practical advantages in terms of application in GP. The original Pra tool may have a role in identifying higher-risk community-dwelling older people for inclusion in future trials aiming to reduce emergency admissions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Specificity in autobiographical memory narratives correlates with performance on the Autobiographical Memory Test and prospectively predicts depressive symptoms

PubMed Central

Sumner, Jennifer A.; Mineka, Susan; McAdams, Dan P.

2012-01-01

Reduced autobiographical memory specificity (AMS) is an important cognitive marker in depression that is typically measured with the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT; Williams & Broadbent, 1986). The AMT is widely used, but the overreliance on a single methodology for assessing AMS is a limitation in the field. The current study investigated memory narratives as an alternative measure of AMS in an undergraduate student sample selected for being high or low on a measure of depressive symptoms (N = 55). We employed a multi-method design to compare narrative- and AMT-based measures of AMS. Participants generated personally significant self-defining memory narratives, and also completed two versions of the AMT (with and without instructions to retrieve specific memories). Greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives correlated with greater AMS in performance on both versions of the AMT in the full sample, and the patterns of relationships between the different AMS measures were generally similar in low and high dysphoric participants. Furthermore, AMS in self-defining memory narratives was prospectively associated with depressive symptom levels. Specifically, greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives predicted fewer depressive symptoms at a 10-week follow-up over and above baseline symptom levels. Implications for future research and clinical applications are discussed. PMID:23240988

Specificity in autobiographical memory narratives correlates with performance on the autobiographical memory test and prospectively predicts depressive symptoms.

PubMed

Sumner, Jennifer A; Mineka, Susan; McAdams, Dan P

2013-01-01

Reduced autobiographical memory specificity (AMS) is an important cognitive marker in depression that is typically measured with the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT; Williams & Broadbent, 1986). The AMT is widely used, but the over-reliance on a single methodology for assessing AMS is a limitation in the field. The current study investigated memory narratives as an alternative measure of AMS in an undergraduate student sample selected for being high or low on a measure of depressive symptoms (N=55). We employed a multi-method design to compare narrative- and AMT-based measures of AMS. Participants generated personally significant self-defining memory narratives, and also completed two versions of the AMT (with and without instructions to retrieve specific memories). Greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives correlated with greater AMS in performance on both versions of the AMT in the full sample, and the patterns of relationships between the different AMS measures were generally similar in low and high dysphoric participants. Furthermore, AMS in self-defining memory narratives was prospectively associated with depressive symptom levels. Specifically, greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives predicted fewer depressive symptoms at a 10-week follow-up over and above baseline symptom levels. Implications for future research and clinical applications are discussed.

The Future Orientation of Past Memory: The Role of BA 10 in Prospective and Retrospective Retrieval Modes.

PubMed

Underwood, Adam G; Guynn, Melissa J; Cohen, Anna-Lisa

2015-01-01

Klein made the provocative suggestion that the purpose of human episodic memory is to enable individuals to plan and prepare for the future. In other words, although episodic (retrospective) memory is about the past, it is not actually for the past; it is for the future. Within this focus, a natural subject for investigation is prospective memory, or memory to do things in the future. An important theoretical construct in the fields of both retrospective memory and prospective memory is that of a retrieval mode, or a neurocognitive set or readiness to treat environmental stimuli as potential retrieval cues. This construct was originally introduced in a theory of episodic (retrospective) memory and has more recently been invoked in a theory of how some prospective memory tasks are accomplished. To our knowledge, this construct has not been explicitly compared between the two literatures, and thus this is the purpose of the present article. Although we address the behavioral evidence for each construct, our primary goal is to assess the extent to which each retrieval mode appears to rely on a common neural region. Our review highlights the fact that a particular area of prefrontal cortex (BA 10) appears to play an important role in both retrospective and prospective retrieval modes. We suggest, based on this evidence and these ideas, that prospective memory research could profit from more active exploration of the relevance of theoretical constructs from the retrospective memory literature.

The Future Orientation of Past Memory: The Role of BA 10 in Prospective and Retrospective Retrieval Modes

PubMed Central

Underwood, Adam G.; Guynn, Melissa J.; Cohen, Anna-Lisa

2015-01-01

Klein made the provocative suggestion that the purpose of human episodic memory is to enable individuals to plan and prepare for the future. In other words, although episodic (retrospective) memory is about the past, it is not actually for the past; it is for the future. Within this focus, a natural subject for investigation is prospective memory, or memory to do things in the future. An important theoretical construct in the fields of both retrospective memory and prospective memory is that of a retrieval mode, or a neurocognitive set or readiness to treat environmental stimuli as potential retrieval cues. This construct was originally introduced in a theory of episodic (retrospective) memory and has more recently been invoked in a theory of how some prospective memory tasks are accomplished. To our knowledge, this construct has not been explicitly compared between the two literatures, and thus this is the purpose of the present article. Although we address the behavioral evidence for each construct, our primary goal is to assess the extent to which each retrieval mode appears to rely on a common neural region. Our review highlights the fact that a particular area of prefrontal cortex (BA 10) appears to play an important role in both retrospective and prospective retrieval modes. We suggest, based on this evidence and these ideas, that prospective memory research could profit from more active exploration of the relevance of theoretical constructs from the retrospective memory literature. PMID:26733844

Predicting grief intensity after recent perinatal loss.

PubMed

Hutti, Marianne H; Myers, John; Hall, Lynne A; Polivka, Barbara J; White, Susan; Hill, Janice; Kloenne, Elizabeth; Hayden, Jaclyn; Grisanti, Meredith McGrew

2017-10-01

The Perinatal Grief Intensity Scale (PGIS) was developed for clinical use to identify and predict intense grief and need for follow-up after perinatal loss. This study evaluates the validity of the PGIS via its ability to predict future intense grief based on a PGIS score obtained early after a loss. A prospective observational study was conducted with 103 international, English-speaking women recruited at hospital discharge or via the internet who experienced a miscarriage, stillbirth, or neonatal death within the previous 8weeks. Survey data were collected at baseline using the PGIS and the Perinatal Grief Scale (PGS). Follow-up data on the PGS were obtained 3months later. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, Cronbach's alpha, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis. Cronbach's alphas were ≥0.70 for both instruments. PGIS factor analysis yielded three factors as predicted, explaining 57.7% of the variance. The optimal cutoff identified for the PGIS was 3.535. No difference was found when the ability of the PGIS to identify intense grief was compared to the PGS (p=0.754). The PGIS was not inferior to the PGS (AUC=0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.88, p<0.001) in predicting intense grief at the follow-up. A PGIS score≥3.53 at baseline was associated with increased grief intensity at Time 2 (PGS: OR=1.97, 95% CI 1.59-2.34, p<0.001). The PGIS is comparable to the PGS, has a lower response burden, and can reliably and validly predict women who may experience future intense grief associated with perinatal loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Implicit and Explicit Measures to Predict Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Among Adolescent Inpatients.

PubMed

Cha, Christine B; Augenstein, Tara M; Frost, Katherine H; Gallagher, Katie; D'Angelo, Eugene J; Nock, Matthew K

2016-01-01

To examine the use of implicit and explicit measures to predict adolescent nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) before, during, and after inpatient hospitalization. Participants were 123 adolescent psychiatric inpatients who completed measures at hospital admission and discharge. The implicit measure (Self-Injury Implicit Association Test [SI-IAT]) and one of the explicit measures pertained to the NSSI method of cutting. Patients were interviewed at multiple time points at which they reported whether they had engaged in NSSI before their hospital stay, during their hospital stay, and within 3 months after discharge. At baseline, SI-IAT scores differentiated past-year self-injurers and noninjurers (t121 = 4.02, p < .001, d = 0.73). These SI-IAT effects were stronger among patients who engaged in cutting (versus noncutting NSSI methods). Controlling for NSSI history and prospective risk factors, SI-IAT scores predicted patients' subsequent cutting behavior during their hospital stay (odds ratio (OR) = 8.19, CI = 1.56-42.98, p < .05). Patients' explicit self-report uniquely predicted hospital-based and postdischarge cutting, even after controlling for SI-IAT scores (ORs = 1.82-2.34, CIs = 1.25-3.87, p values <.01). Exploratory analyses revealed that in specific cases in which patients explicitly reported low likelihood of NSSI, SI-IAT scores still predicted hospital-based cutting. The SI-IAT is an implicit measure that is outcome-specific, a short-term predictor above and beyond NSSI history, and potentially helpful in cases in which patients at risk for NSSI explicitly report that they would not do so in the future. Ultimately, both implicit and explicit measures can help to predict future incidents of cutting among adolescent inpatients. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DSM-5 antisocial personality disorder: predictive validity in a prison sample.

PubMed

Edens, John F; Kelley, Shannon E; Lilienfeld, Scott O; Skeem, Jennifer L; Douglas, Kevin S

2015-04-01

Symptoms of antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), particularly remorselessness, are frequently introduced in legal settings as a risk factor for future violence in prison, despite a paucity of research on the predictive validity of this disorder. We examined whether an ASPD diagnosis or symptom-criteria counts could prospectively predict any form of institutional misconduct, as well as aggressive and violent infractions among newly admitted prisoners. Adult male (n = 298) and female (n = 55) offenders were recruited from 4 prison systems across the United States. At the time of study enrollment, diagnostic information was collected using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.; DSM-IV; APA, 1994) Axis II Personality Disorders (SCID-II; First, Gibbon, Spitzer, Williams, & Benjamin, 1997) supplemented by a detailed review of official records. Disciplinary records were obtained from inmates' respective prisons covering a 1-year period following study enrollment and misconduct was categorized hierarchically as any (general), aggressive (verbal/physical), or violent (physical). Dichotomous ASPD diagnoses and adult symptom-criteria counts did not significantly predict institutional misconduct across our 3 outcome variables, with effect sizes being close to 0 in magnitude. The symptom of remorselessness in particular showed no relation to future misconduct in prison. Childhood symptom counts of conduct disorder demonstrated modest predictive utility. Our results offer essentially no support for the claim that ASPD diagnoses can predict institutional misconduct in prison, regardless of the number of adult symptoms present. In forensic contexts, testimony that an ASPD diagnosis identifies defendants who will pose a serious threat while incarcerated in prison presently lacks any substantial scientific foundation. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Health priorities and public preferences: the relative importance of past health experience and future health prospects.

PubMed

Dolan, Paul; Tsuchiya, Aki

2005-07-01

We explore people's choices where the preference for those with worse future health prospects and the preference for the young over the old conflict. The empirical study used scenarios with four attributes: past years, past health, future years without treatment, and future health without treatment. One hundred respondents ranked various patient groups described in these terms. The results suggest a strong effect of past years: younger groups (40-year-olds) were always chosen over older ones (60-year-olds). Past health was significant in one question but not the other and future health and years without treatment were both non-significant.

Prospective content in the friendship conversations of young adults.

PubMed

Young, Richard A; Marshall, Sheila K; Murray, John

2017-01-01

Prospection is cognitive processes that involve constructing, encoding, and remembering the future. Less is known about the how these processes are evident in the prospective content of conversations. This study sought to identify and describe evidence of the prospective content in the conversations of friends as they transition to adulthood. The present secondary content analysis of the videotaped conversations of 15 young adult friendship dyads (n = 30, 16 females, 14 males, mean age = 21.3 years) in Canada examined these conversations based the following characteristics of prospection: simulation, reasoning about counterfactuals, constructing multiple possible futures, and episodic memory of the past. Four categories of prospective content were evident in these conversations, these processes were used sparingly in all but one conversation, and relatively few of them were collaborative in that dyad partners did not appear to serve to augment, clarify, or disconfirm prospective content. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Within-person Changes in Individual Symptoms of Depression Predict Subsequent Depressive Episodes in Adolescents: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Morris, Matthew C.; Garber, Judy

2015-01-01

The current longitudinal study examined which individual symptoms of depression uniquely predicted a subsequent Major Depressive Episode (MDE) in adolescents, and whether these relations differed by sex. Adolescents (N=240) were first interviewed in grade 6 (M=11.86 years old; SD = 0.56; 54% female; 81.5% Caucasian) and then annually through grade 12 regarding their individual symptoms of depression as well as the occurrence of MDEs. Individual symptoms of depression were assessed with the Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and depressive episodes were assessed with the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation (LIFE). Results showed that within-person changes in sleep problems and low self-esteem/excessive guilt positively predicted an increased likelihood of an MDE for both boys and girls. Significant sex differences also were found. Within-person changes in anhedonia predicted an increased likelihood of a subsequent MDE among boys, whereas irritability predicted a decreased likelihood of a future MDE among boys, and concentration difficulties predicted a decreased likelihood of an MDE in girls. These results identified individual depressive symptoms that predicted subsequent depressive episodes in male and female adolescents, and may be used to guide the early detection, treatment, and prevention of depressive disorders in youth. PMID:26105209

Predicting Early Fatherhood and Whether Young Fathers Live with Their Children: Prospective Findings and Policy Recommendations. Discussion Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaffee, Sara R.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Taylor, Alan; Dickson, Nigel

This prospective, birth cohort study addressed three questions: Which individual and family-of-origin characteristics predict the age at which young men make the transition to fatherhood? Do these characteristics predict how long young men live with their children? Are individual differences in the amount of time fathers spend living with their…

Prediction of Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success in Entering Graduate Education by Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bahadir, Elif

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine a neural network based approach to predict achievement in graduate education for Elementary Mathematics prospective teachers. With the help of this study, it can be possible to make an effective prediction regarding the students' achievement in graduate education with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two…

The level of leisure time physical activity is associated with work ability-a cross sectional and prospective study of health care workers.

PubMed

Arvidson, Elin; Börjesson, Mats; Ahlborg, Gunnar; Lindegård, Agneta; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H

2013-09-17

With increasing age, physical capacity decreases, while the need and time for recovery increases. At the same time, the demands of work usually do not change with age. In the near future, an aging and physically changing workforce risks reduced work ability. Therefore, the impact of different factors, such as physical activity, on work ability is of interest. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the association between physical activity and work ability using both cross sectional and prospective analyses. This study was based on an extensive questionnaire survey. The number of participants included in the analysis at baseline in 2004 was 2.783, of whom 2.597 were also included in the follow-up in 2006. The primary outcome measure was the Work Ability Index (WAI), and the level of physical activity was measured using a single-item question. In the cross-sectional analysis we calculated the level of physical activity and the prevalence of poor or moderate work ability as reported by the participants. In the prospective analysis we calculated different levels of physical activity and the prevalence of positive changes in WAI-category from baseline to follow-up. In both the cross sectional and the prospective analyses the prevalence ratio was calculated using Generalized Linear Models. The cross-sectional analysis showed that with an increased level of physical activity, the reporting of poor or moderate work ability decreased. In the prospective analysis, participants reporting a higher level of physical activity were more likely to have made an improvement in WAI from 2004 to 2006. The level of physical activity seems to be related to work ability. Assessment of physical activity may also be useful as a predictive tool, potentially making it possible to prevent poor work ability and improve future work ability. For employers, the main implications of this study are the importance of promoting and facilitating the employees' engagement in physical activity, and the importance of the employees' maintaining a physically active lifestyle.

A Multinomial Model of Event-Based Prospective Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

2004-01-01

Prospective memory is remembering to perform an action in the future. The authors introduce the 1st formal model of event-based prospective memory, namely, a multinomial model that includes 2 separate parameters related to prospective memory processes. The 1st measures preparatory attentional processes, and the 2nd measures retrospective memory…

Online Prediction of Health Care Utilization in the Next Six Months Based on Electronic Health Record Information: A Cohort and Validation Study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongkai; Hao, Shiying; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Young; Zhu, Chunqing; Huang, Min; Wang, Yue; Zheng, Le; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng

2015-09-22

The increasing rate of health care expenditures in the United States has placed a significant burden on the nation's economy. Predicting future health care utilization of patients can provide useful information to better understand and manage overall health care deliveries and clinical resource allocation. This study developed an electronic medical record (EMR)-based online risk model predictive of resource utilization for patients in Maine in the next 6 months across all payers, all diseases, and all demographic groups. In the HealthInfoNet, Maine's health information exchange (HIE), a retrospective cohort of 1,273,114 patients was constructed with the preceding 12-month EMR. Each patient's next 6-month (between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013) health care resource utilization was retrospectively scored ranging from 0 to 100 and a decision tree-based predictive model was developed. Our model was later integrated in the Maine HIE population exploration system to allow a prospective validation analysis of 1,358,153 patients by forecasting their next 6-month risk of resource utilization between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2013. Prospectively predicted risks, on either an individual level or a population (per 1000 patients) level, were consistent with the next 6-month resource utilization distributions and the clinical patterns at the population level. Results demonstrated the strong correlation between its care resource utilization and our risk scores, supporting the effectiveness of our model. With the online population risk monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the predictive algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in the State of Maine. The model and associated online applications were designed for tracking the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for health care resource utilization. It will enable more effective care management strategies driving improved patient outcomes.

Online Prediction of Health Care Utilization in the Next Six Months Based on Electronic Health Record Information: A Cohort and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Hu, Zhongkai; Hao, Shiying; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Young; Zhu, Chunqing; Huang, Min; Wang, Yue; Zheng, Le; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank

2015-01-01

Background The increasing rate of health care expenditures in the United States has placed a significant burden on the nation’s economy. Predicting future health care utilization of patients can provide useful information to better understand and manage overall health care deliveries and clinical resource allocation. Objective This study developed an electronic medical record (EMR)-based online risk model predictive of resource utilization for patients in Maine in the next 6 months across all payers, all diseases, and all demographic groups. Methods In the HealthInfoNet, Maine’s health information exchange (HIE), a retrospective cohort of 1,273,114 patients was constructed with the preceding 12-month EMR. Each patient’s next 6-month (between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013) health care resource utilization was retrospectively scored ranging from 0 to 100 and a decision tree–based predictive model was developed. Our model was later integrated in the Maine HIE population exploration system to allow a prospective validation analysis of 1,358,153 patients by forecasting their next 6-month risk of resource utilization between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2013. Results Prospectively predicted risks, on either an individual level or a population (per 1000 patients) level, were consistent with the next 6-month resource utilization distributions and the clinical patterns at the population level. Results demonstrated the strong correlation between its care resource utilization and our risk scores, supporting the effectiveness of our model. With the online population risk monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the predictive algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in the State of Maine. Conclusions The model and associated online applications were designed for tracking the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for health care resource utilization. It will enable more effective care management strategies driving improved patient outcomes. PMID:26395541

Prospect theory does not describe the feedback-related negativity value function.

PubMed

Sambrook, Thomas D; Roser, Matthew; Goslin, Jeremy

2012-12-01

Humans handle uncertainty poorly. Prospect theory accounts for this with a value function in which possible losses are overweighted compared to possible gains, and the marginal utility of rewards decreases with size. fMRI studies have explored the neural basis of this value function. A separate body of research claims that prediction errors are calculated by midbrain dopamine neurons. We investigated whether the prospect theoretic effects shown in behavioral and fMRI studies were present in midbrain prediction error coding by using the feedback-related negativity, an ERP component believed to reflect midbrain prediction errors. Participants' stated satisfaction with outcomes followed prospect theory but their feedback-related negativity did not, instead showing no effect of marginal utility and greater sensitivity to potential gains than losses. Copyright © 2012 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Circulating Branched-chain Amino Acid Concentrations Are Associated with Obesity and Future Insulin Resistance in Children and Adolescents

PubMed Central

McCormack, Shana E.; Shaham, Oded; McCarthy, Meaghan A.; Deik, Amy A.; Wang, Thomas J.; Gerszten, Robert E.; Clish, Clary B.; Mootha, Vamsi K.; Grinspoon, Steven K.; Fleischman, Amy

2012-01-01

Background Branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) concentrations are elevated in response to overnutrition, and can affect both insulin sensitivity and secretion. Alterations in their metabolism may therefore play a role in the early pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes in overweight children. Objective To determine whether pediatric obesity is associated with elevations in fasting circulating concentrations of branched-chain amino acids (isoleucine, leucine, and valine), and whether these elevations predict future insulin resistance. Research Design and Methods Sixty-nine healthy subjects, ages 8 to18 years, were enrolled as a cross-sectional cohort. A subset who were pre- or early-pubertal, ages 8 to 13 years, were enrolled in a prospective longitudinal cohort for 18 months (n=17 with complete data). Results Elevations in the concentrations of BCAA’s were significantly associated with BMI Z-score (Spearman’s Rho 0.27, p=0.03) in the cross-sectional cohort. In the subset of subjects followed longitudinally, baseline BCAA concentrations were positively associated with HOMA-IR measured 18 months later after controlling for baseline clinical factors including BMI Z-score, sex, and pubertal stage (p=0.046). Conclusions Elevations in the concentrations of circulating branched-chain amino acids are significantly associated with obesity in children and adolescents, and may independently predict future insulin resistance. PMID:22961720

A Curriculum for the New Dental Practitioner: Preparing Dentists for a Prospective Oral Health Care Environment

PubMed Central

Polverini, Peter J.

2012-01-01

The emerging concept of prospective health care would shift the focus of health care from disease management to disease prevention and health management. Dentistry has a unique opportunity to embrace this model of prospective and collaborative care and focus on the management of oral health. Academic dentistry must better prepare future dentists to succeed in this new health care environment by providing them with the scientific and technical knowledge required to understand and assess risk and practice disease prevention. Dental schools must consider creating career pathways for enabling future graduates to assume important leadership roles that will advance a prospective oral health care system. PMID:22390456

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: what does it actually imply?

PubMed Central

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2017-01-01

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. PMID:27288541

A Behavioral Economic Reward Index Predicts Drinking Resolutions: Moderation Re-visited and Compared with Other Outcomes

PubMed Central

Tucker, Jalie A.; Roth, David L.; Vignolo, Mary J.; Westfall, Andrew O.

2014-01-01

Data were pooled from three studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1-2 year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes compared to abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced pre-resolution monetary allocations between short- and longer-term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (OR) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this “Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure” index predicted higher rates of both abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p < .0001) compared to moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of pre-resolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation. PMID:19309182

Scalar utility theory and proportional processing: What does it actually imply?

PubMed

Rosenström, Tom; Wiesner, Karoline; Houston, Alasdair I

2016-09-07

Scalar Utility Theory (SUT) is a model used to predict animal and human choice behaviour in the context of reward amount, delay to reward, and variability in these quantities (risk preferences). This article reviews and extends SUT, deriving novel predictions. We show that, contrary to what has been implied in the literature, (1) SUT can predict both risk averse and risk prone behaviour for both reward amounts and delays to reward depending on experimental parameters, (2) SUT implies violations of several concepts of rational behaviour (e.g. it violates strong stochastic transitivity and its equivalents, and leads to probability matching) and (3) SUT can predict, but does not always predict, a linear relationship between risk sensitivity in choices and coefficient of variation in the decision-making experiment. SUT derives from Scalar Expectancy Theory which models uncertainty in behavioural timing using a normal distribution. We show that the above conclusions also hold for other distributions, such as the inverse Gaussian distribution derived from drift-diffusion models. A straightforward way to test the key assumptions of SUT is suggested and possible extensions, future prospects and mechanistic underpinnings are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive model for falling in Parkinson disease patients.

PubMed

Custodio, Nilton; Lira, David; Herrera-Perez, Eder; Montesinos, Rosa; Castro-Suarez, Sheila; Cuenca-Alfaro, Jose; Cortijo, Patricia

2016-12-01

Falls are a common complication of advancing Parkinson's disease (PD). Although numerous risk factors are known, reliable predictors of future falls are still lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate model to predict falling in PD patients. Prospective cohort with forty-nine PD patients. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate predictive performance of the purposed multivariate model. The median of PD duration and UPDRS-III score in the cohort was 6 years and 24 points, respectively. Falls occurred in 18 PD patients (30%). Predictive factors for falling identified by univariate analysis were age, PD duration, physical activity, and scores of UPDRS motor, FOG, ACE, IFS, PFAQ and GDS ( p -value < 0.001), as well as fear of falling score ( p -value = 0.04). The final multivariate model (PD duration, FOG, ACE, and physical activity) showed an AUC = 0.9282 (correctly classified = 89.83%; sensitivity = 92.68%; specificity = 83.33%). This study showed that our multivariate model have a high performance to predict falling in a sample of PD patients.

Factors Influencing Teaching Choice, Professional Plans about Teaching, and Future Time Perspective: A Mediational Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay; Tezel, Kadir Vefa

2010-01-01

This study aimed to examine the mediating role of prospective English teachers' future time perspectives in relation to their motivations for teaching, beliefs about the profession, career choice satisfaction, and professional plans. A total of 423 prospective English teachers voluntarily participated in the study. The mediating role of the future…

Views of HR Specialists on Formal Mentoring: Current Situation and Prospects for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laiho, Maarit; Brandt, Tiina

2012-01-01

Purpose: The article aims to report the findings of quantitative and qualitative analysis of the benefits, drawbacks and future prospects of formal mentoring in medium-sized and large organisations. Design/methodology/approach: The empirical data for the study were collected via an online survey, and consist of responses from 152 human resource…

Prospective Teachers' Ideas about Teacher Recruitment and Their Professional Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Idris

2011-01-01

This research aimed to reveal how prospective teachers viewed their professional future and to discern how their lives would be affected in case they were not recruited as teachers. The research was conducted on senior students at Buca Faculty of Education. The sample of the research consisted of 149 senior students, including 82 girls and 67…

Intentions of Chiropractic Interns Regarding use of Health Promotion in Practice: Applying Theory of Reasoned Action to Identify Attitudes, Beliefs, and Influencing Factors

PubMed Central

Evans, Marion W.; Ndetan, Harrison; Williams, Ronald D.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The theory of reasoned action is a health behavioral theory that has been used to predict personal health behaviors and intentions as well as those of providers delivering health care. The purpose of this study was to determine interns' future practices regarding the use of health promotion using this model to develop survey questions and to determine attitudes and perceived influences on their prospective behaviors in general, toward the use of health promotion once in practice. Methods: Across the course of one year, all graduating interns at a chiropractic college were queried with a 20 question survey designed using the theory of reasoned action. Frequencies and inferential statistics were performed including prediction modeling using logistic regression. Results: A majority (>85%) of interns indicated they would use health promotion in practice. Differences were noted based on perceived skill levels, perception of educational emphasis, various normative beliefs, and gender. Conclusion: Most interns will use some form of health promotion in practice. Normative influences including those seen as key influencers are as powerful a predictor as perceived education or skill levels on future practice of health promotion. PMID:19390679

Intentions of Chiropractic Interns Regarding use of Health Promotion in Practice: Applying Theory of Reasoned Action to Identify Attitudes, Beliefs, and Influencing Factors.

PubMed

Evans, Marion W; Ndetan, Harrison; Williams, Ronald D

2009-01-01

The theory of reasoned action is a health behavioral theory that has been used to predict personal health behaviors and intentions as well as those of providers delivering health care. The purpose of this study was to determine interns' future practices regarding the use of health promotion using this model to develop survey questions and to determine attitudes and perceived influences on their prospective behaviors in general, toward the use of health promotion once in practice. Across the course of one year, all graduating interns at a chiropractic college were queried with a 20 question survey designed using the theory of reasoned action. Frequencies and inferential statistics were performed including prediction modeling using logistic regression. A majority (>85%) of interns indicated they would use health promotion in practice. Differences were noted based on perceived skill levels, perception of educational emphasis, various normative beliefs, and gender. Most interns will use some form of health promotion in practice. Normative influences including those seen as key influencers are as powerful a predictor as perceived education or skill levels on future practice of health promotion.

Inequality matters: classroom status hierarchy and adolescents' bullying.

PubMed

Garandeau, Claire F; Lee, Ihno A; Salmivalli, Christina

2014-07-01

The natural emergence of status hierarchies in adolescent peer groups has long been assumed to help prevent future intragroup aggression. However, clear evidence of this beneficial influence is lacking. In fact, few studies have examined between-group differences in the degree of status hierarchy (defined as within-group variation in individual status) and how they are related to bullying, a widespread form of aggression in schools. Data from 11,296 eighth- and ninth-graders (mean age = 14.57, 50.6 % female) from 583 classes in 71 schools were used to determine the direction of the association between classroom degree of status hierarchy and bullying behaviors, and to investigate prospective relationships between these two variables over a 6-month period. Multilevel structural equation modeling analyses showed that higher levels of classroom status hierarchy were concurrently associated with higher levels of bullying at the end of the school year. Higher hierarchy in the middle of the school year predicted higher bullying later in the year. No evidence was found to indicate that initial bullying predicted future hierarchy. These findings highlight the importance of a shared balance of power in the classroom for the prevention of bullying among adolescents.

The 12-lead electrocardiogram and risk of sudden death: current utility and future prospects.

PubMed

Narayanan, Kumar; Chugh, Sumeet S

2015-10-01

More than 100 years after it was first invented, the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) continues to occupy an important place in the diagnostic armamentarium of the practicing clinician. With the recognition of relatively rare but important clinical entities such as Wolff-Parkinson-White and the long QT syndrome, this clinical tool was firmly established as a test for assessing risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, over the past two decades the role of the ECG in risk prediction for common forms of SCD, for example in patients with coronary artery disease, has been the focus of considerable investigation. Especially in light of the limitations of current risk stratification approaches, there is a renewed focus on this broadly available and relatively inexpensive test. Various abnormalities of depolarization and repolarization on the ECG have been linked to SCD risk; however, more focused work is needed before they can be deployed in the clinical arena. The present review summarizes the current knowledge on various ECG risk markers for prediction of SCD and discusses some future directions in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Autoantibodies as Biomarkers for the Prediction of Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

PubMed Central

Hanly, J G; Urowitz, M B; Su, L; Bae, S-C; Gordon, C; Sanchez-Guerrero, J; Clarke, A; Bernatsky, S; Vasudevan, A; Isenberg, D; Rahman, A; Wallace, D J; Fortin, P R; Gladman, D; Dooley, M A; Bruce, I; Steinsson, K; Khamashta, M; Manzi, S; Ramsey-Goldman, R; Sturfelt, G; Nived, O; van Vollenhoven, R; Ramos-Casals, M; Aranow, C; Mackay, M; Kalunian, K; Alarcón, G S; Fessler, B J; Ruiz-Irastorza, G; Petri, M; Lim, S; Kamen, D; Peschken, C; Farewell, V; Thompson, K; Theriault, C; Merrill, J T

2015-01-01

Objective Neuropsychiatric (NP) events occur unpredictably in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and most biomarker associations remain to be prospectively validated. We examined a disease inception cohort of 1047 SLE patients to determine which autoantibodies at enrollment predicted subsequent NP events. Methods Patients with recent SLE diagnosis were assessed prospectively for up to 10 years for NP events using ACR case definitions. Decision rules of graded stringency determined whether NP events were attributable to SLE. Associations between the first NP event and baseline autoantibodies (lupus anticoagulant, anticardiolipin, anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, anti-ribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor) were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Disease duration at enrollment was 5.4±4.2 months, followup was 3.6±2.6 years. Patients were 89.1% female with mean (±SD) age 35.2±13.7 years. 495/1047 (47.3%) developed ≥1 NP event (total 917 events). NP events attributed to SLE were 15.4% (model A) and 28.2% (model B). At enrollment 21.9% of patients had lupus anticoagulant, 13.4% anticardiolipin, 15.1% anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, 9.2% anti-ribosomal P and 13.7% anti-NR2 antibodies. Lupus anticoagulant at baseline was associated with subsequent intracranial thrombosis (total n=22) attributed to SLE (model B) (Hazard ratio, HR 2.54 (95% CI: 1.08–5.94). Anti-ribosomal P antibody was associated with subsequent psychosis (total n=14) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR: 3.92 (95% CI:1.23–12.5); p=0.02). Other autoantibodies did not predict NP events. Conclusion In a prospective study of 1047 recently diagnosed SLE patients, lupus anticoagulant and anti-ribosomal P antibodies are associated with an increased future risk for intracranial thrombosis and lupus psychosis respectively PMID:21893582

Pre-drill predictions versus post-drill results: use of sequence stratigraphic methods in reduction of exploration risk, Sarawak Deep-water Blocks, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansor, Md Yazid; Snedden, J. W.; Sarg, J. F.; Smith, B. S.; Kolich, T.; Carter, M.

1999-04-01

Limited well control, great distances from age-equivalent producing fields, and a largely unknown stratigraphy necessitated use of sequence stratigraphic methods to assess exploration risk associated with reservoir, source and seal distribution in the Mobil-operated Deep-water Blocks of Sarawak, Malaysia. These methods allowed predictions to be made and reservoir risks to be halved in each of the locations drilled in 1995. Predictions regarding reservoir and stratigraphy proved correct, as the Mulu-1 and Bako-1 wells penetrated numerous high-quality, thick sandstone reservoirs in the Middle to Lower Miocene section. Shallow marine sandstones dominate the vertical succession in both wells, with characteristic aggradational, upward-coarsening log motifs. Cores display classic wave-generated stratification and hummocky cross-bedding. Evidence, such as marginal-marine to neritic microfauna in cuttings of both wells, supports these interpretations. Lack of hydrocarbon charge in the two wells may be due to their position relative to coaly hydrocarbon source beds. These prospects have high trap and seal integrity, being well defined on seismics as high relief horst blocks covered by a very thick shale-prone section. The Mulu-1 well, for example, is located at least 20-30 km down stratigraphic dip from mapped coeval lower coastal-plain deposits. Amplitude anomalies on the flank of the Mulu horst are probably derived from transported organics buried in deep Plio-Pleistocene kitchens in the northwest portion of the Mobil blocks. Remaining potential of mapped prospects is high and efforts continue at characterizing the petroleum system of the Deep-water Blocks. Seismic attribute and interval velocity analyses provide new clues to the location of probable coaly source rocks, especially when viewed in their regional and sequence stratigraphic context. Future work is planned and will serve to reduce risk to acceptable levels and support further drilling in this prospective hydrocarbon province.

Impact of oppositional defiant disorder dimensions on the temporal ordering of conduct problems and depression across childhood and adolescence in girls.

PubMed

Hipwell, Alison E; Stepp, Stephanie; Feng, Xin; Burke, Jeff; Battista, Deena R; Loeber, Rolf; Keenan, Kate

2011-10-01

Little is known about the role of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) dimensions on the temporal unfolding of conduct disorder (CD) and depression in girls between childhood and adolescence. The year-to-year associations between CD and depressive symptomatology were examined using nine waves of annually collected data (ages 8 through 16 years) from 1215 participants of the Pittsburgh Girls Study. A series of autoregressive path models were tested that included ODD-Emotion Dysregulation (ODD-ED) and ODD-Defiance, as time-varying covariates on CD predicting depression severity in the following year, and vice versa. Conduct problems, depression, and ODD dimensions were relatively stable throughout childhood and adolescence, and a moderate degree of covariance was observed between these variables. Path analyses showed that CD often preceded depression across this developmental period, although the effect sizes were small. There was less consistent prediction from depression to CD. The overlap between ODD-ED and CD partially explained the prospective relations from CD to depression, whereas these paths were fully explained by the overlap between ODD-ED and depression. The overlap between ODD-Defiance and CD did not account for the prospective relations from CD to depression. In contrast, the overlap between ODD-Defiance and depression accounted for virtually all paths from CD to depression. Accounting for the overlap between ODD dimensions and both CD and depression eliminated all significant predictive paths. Symptoms of CD tend to precede depression in girls during childhood and adolescence. However, covariance between depression and both ODD-ED and ODD-Defiance accounts for these prospective relations. ODD dimensions should be assessed when evaluating risk for comorbid depression in girls with conduct problems, and emotion dysregulation and defiance aspects of ODD should be identified as targets for treatment in order to prevent depression in the future. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Earth remote sensing - 1970-1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thome, P. G.

1984-01-01

The past-achievements, current status, and future prospects of the Landsat terrestrial-remote-sensing satellite program are surveyed. Topics examined include the early history of space flight; the development of analysis techniques to interpret the multispectral images obtained by Landsats 1, 2, and 3; the characteristics of the advanced Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper; microwave scanning by Seasat and the Shuttle Imaging Radar; the usefulness of low-resolution AVHRR data from the NOAA satellites; improvements in Landsats 4 and 5 to permit tailoring of information to user needs; expansion and internationalization of the remote-sensing market in the late 1980s; and technological advances in both instrumentation and data-processing predicted by the 1990s.

Eclipsing binary stars in the era of massive surveys First results and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papageorgiou, Athanasios; Catelan, Márcio; Ramos, Rodrigo Contreras; Drake, Andrew J.

2017-09-01

Our thinking about eclipsing binary stars has undergone a tremendous change in the last decade. Eclipsing binary stars are one of nature's best laboratories for determining the fundamental physical properties of stars and thus for testing the predictions of theoretical models. Some of the largest ongoing variable star surveys include the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) and the VISTA Variables in the Vía Láctea survey (VVV). They both contain a large amount of photometric data and plenty of information about eclipsing binaries that wait to be extracted and exploited. Here we briefly describe our efforts in this direction.

Prospective study of serum uric acid levels and incident metabolic syndrome in a Korean rural cohort.

PubMed

Yadav, Dhananjay; Lee, Eun Soo; Kim, Hong Min; Choi, Eunhee; Lee, Eun Young; Lim, Jung Soo; Ahn, Song Vogue; Koh, Sang Baek; Chung, Choon Hee

2015-07-01

Recent studies have demonstrated an association between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, paucity of available data regarding the cause and effect relationship between SUA and MetS in healthy adults is still a big challenge which remains to be studied. Therefore, we investigated whether SUA predicts new onset of MetS in a population-based cohort study. The study included 1590 adults (661 men and 929 women) aged 40-70 years without MetS at baseline (2005-2008) and subjects were prospectively followed for 2.6 years. To evaluate the relationship between SUA and MetS, we divided the aforementioned subjects into quintiles (SUA-I to SUA-V) from the lowest to the highest values of SUA. SUA was measured by the enzymatic colorimetric method. We used category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) to characterize the performance of predicted model. During a mean of 2.6 years of follow-up, 261(16.4%) adults developed MetS. MetS variables were significantly related to the baseline SUA level. Waist circumference (WC), blood pressure (BP), and serum triglyceride (TG) were significantly higher in the highest quintile of SUA compared to the lowest SUA quintile in men and women. After adjustment for age, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in men and women, subjects in the fifth quintiles of SUA showed significantly higher ORs for incident MetS. The association between hyperuricemia and new onset of MetS were consistently stronger in women than men. Additionally, among women, we found an improvement in the area under the ROC curve in the models that added SUA to core components of MetS. Our study suggests that SUA is significantly correlated with future risk of WC, BP, TG and may predicted as a risk factor for developing MetS. SUA may have a clinical role in predicting new-onset metabolic syndrome among women. Large prospective study is needed to reveal the clinical significance of SUA in metabolic disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computational Fragment-Based Drug Design: Current Trends, Strategies, and Applications.

PubMed

Bian, Yuemin; Xie, Xiang-Qun Sean

2018-04-09

Fragment-based drug design (FBDD) has become an effective methodology for drug development for decades. Successful applications of this strategy brought both opportunities and challenges to the field of Pharmaceutical Science. Recent progress in the computational fragment-based drug design provide an additional approach for future research in a time- and labor-efficient manner. Combining multiple in silico methodologies, computational FBDD possesses flexibilities on fragment library selection, protein model generation, and fragments/compounds docking mode prediction. These characteristics provide computational FBDD superiority in designing novel and potential compounds for a certain target. The purpose of this review is to discuss the latest advances, ranging from commonly used strategies to novel concepts and technologies in computational fragment-based drug design. Particularly, in this review, specifications and advantages are compared between experimental and computational FBDD, and additionally, limitations and future prospective are discussed and emphasized.

Death and the Self.

PubMed

Nichols, Shaun; Strohminger, Nina; Rai, Arun; Garfield, Jay

2018-05-01

It is an old philosophical idea that if the future self is literally different from the current self, one should be less concerned with the death of the future self (Parfit, ). This paper examines the relation between attitudes about death and the self among Hindus, Westerners, and three Buddhist populations (Lay Tibetan, Lay Bhutanese, and monastic Tibetans). Compared with other groups, monastic Tibetans gave particularly strong denials of the continuity of self, across several measures. We predicted that the denial of self would be associated with a lower fear of death and greater generosity toward others. To our surprise, we found the opposite. Monastic Tibetan Buddhists showed significantly greater fear of death than any other group. The monastics were also less generous than any other group about the prospect of giving up a slightly longer life in order to extend the life of another. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Planning activity for internally generated reward goals in monkey amygdala neurons

PubMed Central

Schultz, Wolfram

2015-01-01

The best rewards are often distant and can only be achieved by planning and decision-making over several steps. We designed a multi-step choice task in which monkeys followed internal plans to save rewards towards self-defined goals. During this self-controlled behavior, amygdala neurons showed future-oriented activity that reflected the animal’s plan to obtain specific rewards several trials ahead. This prospective activity encoded crucial components of the animal’s plan, including value and length of the planned choice sequence. It began on initial trials when a plan would be formed, reappeared step-by-step until reward receipt, and readily updated with a new sequence. It predicted performance, including errors, and typically disappeared during instructed behavior. Such prospective activity could underlie the formation and pursuit of internal plans characteristic for goal-directed behavior. The existence of neuronal planning activity in the amygdala suggests an important role for this structure in guiding behavior towards internally generated, distant goals. PMID:25622146

Stability of the DSM-5 Section III pathological personality traits and their longitudinal associations with psychosocial functioning in personality disordered individuals.

PubMed

Wright, Aidan G C; Calabrese, William R; Rudick, Monica M; Yam, Wern How; Zelazny, Kerry; Williams, Trevor F; Rotterman, Jane H; Simms, Leonard J

2015-02-01

This study was conducted to establish (a) the stability of the DSM-5 Section III personality disorder (PD) traits, (b) whether these traits predict future psychosocial functioning, and (c) whether changes in traits track with changes in psychosocial functioning across time. Ninety-three outpatients (61% female) diagnosed with at least 1 PD completed patient-report measures at 2 time-points (M time between assessments = 1.44 years), including the Personality Inventory for the DSM-5 and several measures of psychosocial functioning. Effect sizes of rank-order and mean-level change were calculated. In addition, Time 1 traits were used to predict functioning measures at Time 2. Finally, latent change score models were estimated for DSM-5 Section III traits and functioning measures, and correlations among latent change scores were calculated to establish the relationship between change in traits and functional outcomes. Findings demonstrated that the DSM-5 Section III traits were highly stable in terms of normative (i.e., mean-level) change and rank-order stability over the course of the study. Furthermore, traits prospectively predicted psychosocial functioning. However, at the individual level traits and functioning were not entirely static over the study, and change in individuals' functioning tracked with changes in trait levels. These findings demonstrate that the DSM-5 Section III traits are highly stable consistent with the definition of PD, prospectively predictive of psychosocial functioning, and are dynamically associated with functioning over time. This study provides important evidence in support of the DSM-5 Section III PD model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Does trauma exposure predict prescription drug problems beyond the contribution of post-traumatic stress disorder and depression? An analysis of the Mind Your Heart cohort study.

PubMed

Kalapatapu, Raj K; Dannenbaum, Tatiana P; Harbison, John D; Cohen, Beth E

2017-01-01

It is not clear from prior studies whether trauma exposure predicts substance use problems independent of psychiatric comorbidities. Most prior studies were cross-sectional in nature, and none focused on prescription drug problems. To address this gap in the literature, the current article is a secondary analysis of veterans from the Mind Your Heart prospective cohort study. The primary research question is whether trauma exposure predicts prescription drug problems even after controlling for major psychiatric symptoms, such as post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess whether the 10-item lifetime Brief Trauma Questionnaire (e.g., serious car accidents, war traumas, life-threatening illness, natural disasters, physical, or sexual abuse) predicts prescription drug problems as determined by a self-report categorical question (three answer choices) over a 4-year follow-up time period (n = 661 [100%] at year 1; 83.4% at year 2; 85.9% at year 3; and 78.2% at year 4). Trauma exposure was positively associated with prescription drug problems in unadjusted and age-, sex-, and race-adjusted analyses at follow-up. After accounting for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD Checklist-17 Civilian Version) and depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9) symptoms, trauma exposure was no longer associated with prescription drug problems at all time points (relative risk ratios range 0.91-1.47). These results were robust to different missing data strategies. Trauma exposure was not associated with prescription drug problems over a 4-year follow-up in a prospective cohort study of veterans. Future directions include detailed measures of prescription drug problems and recruitment from community sites.

Serum selenium and glutathione peroxidase-3 activity: biomarkers of systemic inflammation in the critically ill?

PubMed

Manzanares, William; Biestro, Alberto; Galusso, Federico; Torre, Maria H; Mañay, Nelly; Pittini, Gustavo; Facchin, Gianella; Hardy, Gil

2009-05-01

To confirm the influence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) on selenium (Se) levels and prospectively evaluate the relationship between serum Se concentration [Se], glutathione peroxidase activity [GPx-3] and injury severity in patients at the time of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Prospective, observational study. Multidisciplinary University Hospital ICU. A total of 36 ICU patients and 23 healthy volunteer subjects (HVS). Healthy volunteer subjects were designated as controls (Group 1). ICU patients were divided into three groups: without SIRS (Group 2); with SIRS (Group 3); with SIRS and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) (Group 4). The latter groups had APACHE II scores >15. [GPx-3] and [Se] were determined by standard methods within the first 48 h of admission to ICU. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U test were used for analysis of non-parametric continuous variables. The predictive value of [Se] and [GPx-3] for SIRS was calculated using a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. In SIRS and MODS patients [GPx-3] and [Se] decreased significantly (P = 0.0001 and P = 0.002, respectively). After ICU admission [GPx-3] and [Se] had a predictive value for SIRS ([GPx-3] sensitivity: 90%, specificity: 86.2% (cut-off value: 0.5 U/mL); [Se]: sensitivity 90%, specificity 72.4% (cut-off value: 60 microg/L). [Se] had predictive value for ICU mortality (P = 0.034). Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and MODS were associated with early decreases in [Se] and [GPx-3]. Low [Se] and [GPx-3] after ICU admission had a predictive value for SIRS, which may aid future selection of patients who could benefit from Se supplementation.

Cardiac Rotational Mechanics As a Predictor of Myocardial Recovery in Heart Failure Patients Undergoing Chronic Mechanical Circulatory Support: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Bonios, Michael J; Koliopoulou, Antigone; Wever-Pinzon, Omar; Taleb, Iosif; Stehlik, Josef; Xu, Weining; Wever-Pinzon, James; Catino, Anna; Kfoury, Abdallah G; Horne, Benjamin D; Nativi-Nicolau, Jose; Adamopoulos, Stamatis N; Fang, James C; Selzman, Craig H; Bax, Jeroen J; Drakos, Stavros G

2018-04-01

Impaired qualitative and quantitative left ventricular (LV) rotational mechanics predict cardiac remodeling progression and prognosis after myocardial infarction. We investigated whether cardiac rotational mechanics can predict cardiac recovery in chronic advanced cardiomyopathy patients. Sixty-three patients with advanced and chronic dilated cardiomyopathy undergoing implantation of LV assist device (LVAD) were prospectively investigated using speckle tracking echocardiography. Acute heart failure patients were prospectively excluded. We evaluated LV rotational mechanics (apical and basal LV twist, LV torsion) and deformational mechanics (circumferential and longitudinal strain) before LVAD implantation. Cardiac recovery post-LVAD implantation was defined as (1) final resulting LV ejection fraction ≥40%, (2) relative LV ejection fraction increase ≥50%, (iii) relative LV end-systolic volume decrease ≥50% (all 3 required). Twelve patients fulfilled the criteria for cardiac recovery (Rec Group). The Rec Group had significantly less impaired pre-LVAD peak LV torsion compared with the Non-Rec Group. Notably, both groups had similarly reduced pre-LVAD LV ejection fraction. By receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, pre-LVAD peak LV torsion of 0.35 degrees/cm had a 92% sensitivity and a 73% specificity in predicting cardiac recovery. Peak LV torsion before LVAD implantation was found to be an independent predictor of cardiac recovery after LVAD implantation (odds ratio, 0.65 per 0.1 degrees/cm [0.49-0.87]; P =0.014). LV rotational mechanics seem to be useful in selecting patients prone to cardiac recovery after mechanical unloading induced by LVADs. Future studies should investigate the utility of these markers in predicting durable cardiac recovery after the explantation of the cardiac assist device. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Burnout during nursing education predicts lower occupational preparedness and future clinical performance: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Rudman, Ann; Gustavsson, J Petter

2012-08-01

Early-career burnout among nurses can influence health and professional development, as well as quality of care. However, the prospective occupational consequences of study burnout have not previously been investigated in a national sample using a longitudinal design. To prospectively monitor study burnout for a national sample of nursing students during their years in higher education and at follow-up 1 year post graduation. Further, to relate the possible development of study burnout to prospective health and life outcomes, as well as student and occupational outcomes. A longitudinal cohort of Swedish nursing students (within the population-based LANE (Longitudinal Analysis of Nursing Education/Entry) study) from all sites of education in Sweden was surveyed annually. Data were collected at four points in time over 4 years: three times during higher education and 1 year post graduation. : A longitudinal sample of 1702 respondents was prospectively followed from late autumn 2002 to spring 2006. Mean level changes of study burnout (as measured by the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory, i.e. the Exhaustion and Disengagement subscales) across time, as well as prospective effects of baseline study burnout and changes in study burnout levels, were estimated using Latent Growth Curve Modeling. An increase in study burnout (from 30% to 41%) across 3 years in higher education was found, and levels of both Exhaustion and Disengagement increased significantly across the years in education (p<0.001). Baseline levels, as well as development of study burnout, predicted lower levels of in-class learner engagement and occupational preparedness in the final year. At follow-up 1 year post graduation, earlier development of study burnout was related to lower mastery of occupational tasks, less research utilization in everyday clinical practice and higher turnover intentions. The results suggest that study burnout may have interfered with learning and psychological well-being. Aspects related to work skills and intention to leave the profession were also affected. Thus, burnout development during higher education may be an important concern, and effective preventive measures to counteract burnout development may be necessary already at the outset of nursing education. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Source of Adult Age Differences in Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

2006-01-01

Event-based prospective memory involves remembering to perform an action in response to a particular future event. Normal younger and older adults performed event-based prospective memory tasks in 2 experiments. The authors applied a formal multinomial processing tree model of prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004) to disentangle age differences…

Aging prisoners' treatment selection: does prospect theory enhance understanding of end-of-life medical decisions?

PubMed

Phillips, Laura L; Allen, Rebecca S; Harris, Grant M; Presnell, Andrew H; Decoster, Jamie; Cavanaugh, Ronald

2011-10-01

With the rapid growth in the older inmate population and the economic impact of end-of-life treatments within the cash-strapped prison system, consideration should be given to inmate treatment preferences. We examined end-of-life treatment preferences and days of desired life for several health scenarios among male inmates incarcerated primarily for murder. Inmates over the age of 45 who passed a cognitive screening completed face-to-face interviews (N = 94; mean age = 57.7; SD = 10.68). We found a 3-way interaction indicating that the effect of parole expectation on desire for life-sustaining treatment varied by race/ethnicity and treatment. Minority inmates desired cardiopulmonary resuscitation or feeding tubes only if they believed that they would be paroled. The model predicting desire for palliative care was not significant. Future days of desired life were related to prospective health condition, fear of death, negative affect, and trust in prison health care. Caucasian inmates expressed a desire for more days of life out of prison, whereas minority inmates did not differ in days of desired life either in or out of prison. Minorities wanted more days of life than Caucasians but only if they believed that they would be paroled. End-of-life care for the burgeoning inmate population is costly, and active life-sustaining treatments may not be desired under certain conditions. Specifically, expectation of parole but not current functional ability interacts with future illness condition in explaining inmates' desire for active treatment or days of desired life in the future.

Head Trauma with or without Mild Brain Injury Increases the Risk of Future Traumatic Death: A Controlled Prospective 15-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Vaaramo, Kalle; Puljula, Jussi; Tetri, Sami; Juvela, Seppo; Hillbom, Matti

2015-10-15

Patients who have recovered from traumatic brain injury (TBI) show an increased risk of premature death. To investigate long-term mortality rates in a population admitted to the hospital for head injury (HI), we conducted a population-based prospective case-control, record-linkage study, All subjects who were living in Northern Ostrobothnia, and who were admitted to Oulu University Hospital in 1999 because of HI (n=737), and 2196 controls matched by age, gender, and residence randomly drawn from the population of Northern Ostrobothnia were included. Death rate and causes of death in HI subjects during 15 years of follow-up was compared with the general population controls. The crude mortality rates were 56.9, 18.6, and 23.8% for subjects having moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), mild TBI, and head injury without TBI, respectively. The corresponding approximate annual mortality rates were 6.7%, 1.4%, and 1.9%. All types of index HI predicted a significant risk of traumatic death in the future. Subjects who had HI without TBI had an increased risk of both death from all causes (hazard ratio 2.00; 95% confidence interval 1.57-2.55) and intentional or unintentional traumatic death (4.01, 2.20-7.30), compared with controls. The main founding was that even HI without TBI carries an increased risk of future traumatic death. The reason for this remains unknown and further studies are needed. To prevent such premature deaths, post-traumatic therapy should include an interview focusing on lifestyle factors.

Gender differences in coping responses and bulimic symptoms among undergraduate students.

PubMed

Kwan, Mun Yee; Gordon, Kathryn H; Eddy, Kamryn T; Thomas, Jennifer J; Franko, Debra L; Troop-Gordon, Wendy

2014-12-01

This prospective study examined the predictive role of three types of coping responses (i.e., voluntary disengagement, involuntary engagement, and involuntary disengagement) in response to social stress on bulimic symptoms among undergraduate women and men. A total of 883 (308 men; 35%) participants completed the Response to Stress Questionnaire, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI) at baseline assessment and the EDI at follow-up assessment 8-12 weeks later. After controlling for baseline bulimic symptoms, depression, and body dissatisfaction, involuntary disengagement predicted bulimic symptoms at follow-up among men (b=.21, p<.001), but not among women (b=.06, p>.05). Results indicated that men who responded to social stress through involuntary disengagement (e.g., emotional numbing, inaction) had higher risk for increased bulimic symptoms. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to further understand the role of these coping responses on bulimic symptoms. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prospective Effects of Possible Selves on Alcohol Consumption in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Lee, Chia-Kuei; Corte, Colleen; Stein, Karen F.; Park, Chang G.; Finnegan, Lorna; McCreary, Linda L.

2014-01-01

Possible selves, cognitions about the self that reflect hopes, fears, and expectations for the future, are reliable predictors of health risk behaviors but have not been explored as predictors of adolescents’ alcohol use. In a secondary analysis of data from 137 adolescents, we examined the influence of possible selves assessed in eighth grade on alcohol consumption (yes/no and level of use) in ninth grade. Having a most important feared possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted alcohol abstinence in ninth grade. Among those who reported alcohol use, having many hoped-for possible selves and a most important hoped-for possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted lower level of alcohol consumption in ninth grade. Interventions that foster the personal relevance and importance of academics and lead to the development of hoped-for possible selves may reduce adolescents’ alcohol consumption. PMID:25545451

Subclinical bulimia predicts conduct disorder in middle adolescent girls.

PubMed

Viinamäki, Anni; Marttunen, Mauri; Fröjd, Sari; Ruuska, Jaana; Kaltiala-Heino, Riittakerttu

2013-01-01

This study investigates the comorbidity and longitudinal associations between self-reported conduct disorder and subclinical bulimia in a community-based sample of Finnish adolescents in a 2-year prospective follow-up study. There are 2070 adolescents who participated in the survey as ninth graders (mean age 15.5) and followed-up 2 years later. The Youth Self-Report Externalizing scale was used to measure conduct disorder and DSM-IV-based questionnaire to measure bulimia. Co-occurrence of female conduct disorder and subclinical bulimia was found at ages 15 and 17. Subclinical bulimia among girls at age 15 was a risk factor for conduct disorder at age 17, but conduct disorder at age 15 was not predictive of subclinical bulimia at age 17. The pathway from bulimia to conduct disorder may be suggestive of an association with future borderline personality disorder among girls. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

Sex differences in the relation of weight loss self-efficacy, binge eating, and depressive symptoms to weight loss success in a residential obesity treatment program.

PubMed

Presnell, Katherine; Pells, Jennifer; Stout, Anna; Musante, Gerard

2008-04-01

The aim of the current study was to examine whether weight loss self-efficacy, binge eating, and depressive symptoms predicted weight loss during treatment, and whether gender moderates these associations with prospective data from 297 participants (223 women and 74 men) enrolled in a residential obesity treatment program. Men reported higher initial levels of self-efficacy than women, whereas women reported greater pre-treatment levels of binge eating and depressive symptoms. Higher pre-treatment levels of weight control self-efficacy, binge eating, and depressive symptoms predicted greater weight loss in men, but not in women. Results suggest that certain psychological and behavioral factors should be considered when implementing weight loss interventions, and indicate a need to consider gender differences in predictors of weight loss treatment. Future research should seek to identify predictors of weight loss among women.

Gastroschisis: antenatal sonographic predictors of adverse neonatal outcome.

PubMed

Page, Rachael; Ferraro, Zachary Michael; Moretti, Felipe; Fung, Karen Fung Kee

2014-01-01

The aim of this review was to identify clinically significant ultrasound predictors of adverse neonatal outcome in fetal gastroschisis. A quasi-systematic review was conducted in PubMed and Ovid using the key terms "gastroschisis," "predictors," "outcome," and "ultrasound." A total of 18 papers were included. The most common sonographic predictors were intra-abdominal bowel dilatation (IABD), intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), and bowel dilatation not otherwise specified (NOS). Three ultrasound markers were consistently found to be statistically insignificant with respect to predicting adverse outcome including abdominal circumference, stomach herniation and dilatation, and extra-abdominal bowel dilatation (EABD). Gastroschisis is associated with several comorbidities, yet there is much discrepancy in the literature regarding which specific ultrasound markers best predict adverse neonatal outcomes. Future research should include prospective trials with larger sample sizes and use well-defined and consistent definitions of the adverse outcomes investigated with consideration given to IABD.

One-year prospective prediction of marijuana use cessation among youth at continuation high schools.

PubMed

Sussman, S; Dent, C W

1999-01-01

This article reports a large-scale study of the prediction of marijuana use cessation among adolescents who were regular users at baseline. Social, attitude, intrapersonal, violence-related, drug-use-related, and demographic baseline measures served as predictors of whether or not 566 current marijuana users reported having quit use 1 year later. Quitting was defined as having not used marijuana in the last 30 days and having no intention to use marijuana in the future (31% of the baseline users). Those who were slightly older, who reported receiving relatively less approval for using drugs, who held relatively unfavorable attitudes about the acceptability of drug use, and who reported relatively less victimization in the last year were relatively likely to quit. Implications of these results include the need to increase unacceptability of marijuana use to help increase efforts at self-initiated quitting.

Longitudinal prediction of language emergence in infants at high and low risk for autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Edmunds, Sarah R; Ibañez, Lisa V; Warren, Zachary; Messinger, Daniel S; Stone, Wendy L

2017-02-01

This study used a prospective longitudinal design to examine the early developmental pathways that underlie language growth in infants at high risk (n = 50) and low risk (n = 34) for autism spectrum disorder in the first 18 months of life. While motor imitation and responding to joint attention (RJA) have both been found to predict expressive language in children with autism spectrum disorder and those with typical development, the longitudinal relation between these capacities has not yet been identified. As hypothesized, results revealed that 15-month RJA mediated the association between 12-month motor imitation and 18-month expressive vocabulary, even after controlling for earlier levels of RJA and vocabulary. These results provide new information about the developmental sequencing of skills relevant to language growth that may inform future intervention efforts for children at risk for language delay or other developmental challenges.

Predicting impulsive self-injurious behavior in a sample of adult women.

PubMed

Black, Emma B; Mildred, Helen

2013-01-01

Different types of self-injury have been classified as reflecting impulsive and compulsive characteristics (article by Simeon and Favazza [Self-injurious Behaviors: Assessment and Treatment {pp 1-28}. Washington, DC: American Psychiatric Publishing, Inc, 2001]). The current research used a prospective design to evaluate whether there is a progression between these different types of self-injurious behaviors (SIB) over time. Support was found for a progression from compulsive SIB (including hair pulling, nail-biting, skin picking, scratching, and preventing wounds from healing) to impulsive SIB (including cutting, burning, carving, pin sticking, and punching) in a group of adult women (N = 106). Other factors hypothesized to be linked to this outcome were disordered eating, age, and personality facets of impulsivity (specifically, urgency and lack of perseverance). Of these variables, only urgency positively predicted impulsive SIB at the study's conclusion. These findings are discussed, limitations of the study are noted, and directions for future research are outlined.

Prospective effects of possible selves on alcohol consumption in adolescents.

PubMed

Lee, Chia-Kuei; Corte, Colleen; Stein, Karen F; Park, Chang G; Finnegan, Lorna; McCreary, Linda L

2015-02-01

Possible selves, cognitions about the self that reflect hopes, fears, and expectations for the future, are reliable predictors of health risk behaviors but have not been explored as predictors of adolescents' alcohol use. In a secondary analysis of data from 137 adolescents, we examined the influence of possible selves assessed in eighth grade on alcohol consumption (yes/no and level of use) in ninth grade. Having a most important feared possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted alcohol abstinence in ninth grade. Among those who reported alcohol use, having many hoped-for possible selves and a most important hoped-for possible self related to academics in eighth grade predicted lower level of alcohol consumption in ninth grade. Interventions that foster the personal relevance and importance of academics and lead to the development of hoped-for possible selves may reduce adolescents' alcohol consumption. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Back to the future: autobiographical planning and the functionality of mind-wandering.

PubMed

Baird, Benjamin; Smallwood, Jonathan; Schooler, Jonathan W

2011-12-01

Given that as much as half of human thought arises in a stimulus independent fashion, it would seem unlikely that such thoughts would play no functional role in our lives. However, evidence linking the mind-wandering state to performance decrement has led to the notion that mind-wandering primarily represents a form of cognitive failure. Based on previous work showing a prospective bias to mind-wandering, the current study explores the hypothesis that one potential function of spontaneous thought is to plan and anticipate personally relevant future goals, a process referred to as autobiographical planning. The results confirm that the content of mind-wandering is predominantly future-focused, demonstrate that individuals with high working memory capacity are more likely to engage in prospective mind-wandering, and show that prospective mind-wandering frequently involves autobiographical planning. Together this evidence suggests that mind-wandering can enable prospective cognitive operations that are likely to be useful to the individual as they navigate through their daily lives. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction. Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Kaptoge, S; Armbrecht, G; Felsenberg, D; Lunt, M; Weber, K; Boonen, S; Jajic, I; Stepan, J J; Banzer, D; Reisinger, W; Janott, J; Kragl, G; Scheidt-Nave, C; Felsch, B; Matthis, C; Raspe, H H; Lyritis, G; Póor, G; Nuti, R; Miazgowski, T; Hoszowski, K; Armas, J Bruges; Vaz, A Lopes; Benevolenskaya, L I; Masaryk, P; Cannata, J B; Johnell, O; Reid, D M; Bhalla, A; Woolf, A D; Todd, C J; Cooper, C; Eastell, R; Kanis, J A; O'Neill, T W; Silman, A J; Reeve, J

2006-01-01

Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5-20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age. Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models. In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010). We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.

Predictive value of high-sensitivity troponin-I for future adverse cardiovascular outcome in stable patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I(hs-TnI) and T levels(hs-TnT) are sensitive biomarkers of cardiomyocyte turnover or necrosis. Prior studies of the predictive role of hs-TnT in type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) patients have yielded conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether hs-TnI, which is detectable in a higher proportion of normal subjects than hsTnT, is associated with a major adverse cardiovascular event(MACE) in T2DM patients. Methods and results We compared hs-TnI level in stored serum samples from 276 consecutive patients (mean age 65 ± 10 years; 57% male) with T2DM with that of 115 age-and sex-matched controls. All T2DM patients were prospectively followed up for at least 4 years for incidence of MACE including heart failure(HF), myocardial infarction(MI) and cardiovascular mortality. At baseline, 274(99%) patients with T2DM had detectable hs-TnI, and 57(21%) had elevated hs-TnI (male: 8.5 ng/L, female: 7.6 ng/L, above the 99th percentile in healthy controls). A total of 43 MACE occurred: HF(n = 18), MI(n = 11) and cardiovascular mortality(n = 14). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that an elevated hs-TnI was associated with MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Although multivariate analysis revealed that an elevated hs-TnI independently predicted MACE, it had limited sensitivity(62.7%) and positive predictive value(38.5%). Contrary to this, a normal hs-TnI level had an excellent negative predictive value(92.2%) for future MACE in patients with T2DM. Conclusion The present study demonstrates that elevated hs-TnI in patients with T2DM is associated with increased MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Importantly, a normal hs-TnI level has an excellent negative predictive value for future adverse cardiovascular events during long-term follow-up. PMID:24661773

Perceived future career prospects in general practice: quantitative results from questionnaire surveys of UK doctors

PubMed Central

Lambert, Trevor W; Smith, Fay; Goldacre, Michael J

2016-01-01

Background There are more studies of current job satisfaction among GPs than of their views about their future career prospects, although both are relevant to commitment to careers in general practice. Aim To report on the views of GPs compared with clinicians in other specialties about their future career prospects. Design and setting Questionnaire surveys were sent to UK medical doctors who graduated in selected years between 1974 and 2008. Method Questionnaires were sent to the doctors at different times after graduation, ranging from 3 to 24 years. Results Based on the latest survey of each graduation year of the 20 940 responders, 66.2% of GPs and 74.2% of hospital doctors were positive about their prospects and 9.7% and 8.3%, respectively, were negative. However, with increasing time since graduation and increasing levels of seniority, GPs became less positive about their prospects; by contrast, over time, surgeons became more positive. Three to 5 years after graduation, 86.3% of those training in general practice were positive about their prospects compared with 52.9% of surgical trainees: in surveys conducted 12–24 years after graduation, 60.2% of GPs and 76.6% of surgeons were positive about their prospects. Conclusion GPs held broadly positive views of their career prospects, as did other doctors. However, there was an increase in negativity with increasing time since graduation that was not seen in hospital doctors. Research into the causes of this negativity and policy measures to ameliorate it would contribute to the continued commitment of GPs and may help to reduce attrition. PMID:27578813

Prospects for future experiments to search for nucleon decay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ayres, D.S.; Heller, K.; LoSecco, J.

1982-01-01

We review the status of theoretical expectations and experimental searches for nucleon decay, and predict the sensitivities which could be reached by future experiments. For the immediate future, we concur with the conclusions of the 1982 Summer Workshop on Proton Decay Experiments: all detectors now in operation or construction will be relatively insensitive to some potentially important decay modes. Next-generation experiments must therefore be designed to search for these modes, and should be undertaken whether or not present experiments detect nucleon decay in other modes. These future experiments should be designed to push the lifetime limits on all decay modesmore » to the levels at which irreducible cosmic-ray neutrino-induced backgrounds become important. Since the technology for these next-generation experiments is available now, the timetable for starting work on them will be determined by funding constraints and not by the need for extensive development of detectors. Efforts to develop advanced detector techniques should also be pursued, in order to mount more sensitive searches than can be envisioned using current technology, or to provide the most precise measurements possible of the properties of the nucleon decay interaction if it should occur at a detectable rate.« less

miRNA-197 and miRNA-223 Predict Cardiovascular Death in a Cohort of Patients with Symptomatic Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Schulte, Christian; Molz, Simon; Appelbaum, Sebastian; Karakas, Mahir; Ojeda, Francisco; Lau, Denise M; Hartmann, Tim; Lackner, Karl J; Westermann, Dirk; Schnabel, Renate B; Blankenberg, Stefan; Zeller, Tanja

2015-01-01

Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) have been described as potential diagnostic biomarkers in cardiovascular disease and in particular, coronary artery disease (CAD). Few studies were undertaken to perform analyses with regard to risk stratification of future cardiovascular events. miR-126, miR-197 and miR-223 are involved in endovascular inflammation and platelet activation and have been described as biomarkers in the diagnosis of CAD. They were identified in a prospective study in relation to future myocardial infarction. The aim of our study was to further evaluate the prognostic value of these miRNAs in a large prospective cohort of patients with documented CAD. Levels of miR-126, miR-197 and miR-223 were evaluated in serum samples of 873 CAD patients with respect to the endpoint cardiovascular death. miRNA quantification was performed using real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The median follow-up period was 4 years (IQR 2.78-5.04). The median age of all patients was 64 years (IQR 57-69) with 80.2% males. 38.9% of the patients presented with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), 61.1% were diagnosed with stable angina pectoris (SAP). Elevated levels of miRNA-197 and miRNA-223 reliably predicted future cardiovascular death in the overall group (miRNA-197: hazard ratio (HR) 1.77 per one standard deviation (SD) increase (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20; 2.60), p = 0.004, C-index 0.78; miRNA-223: HR 2.23 per one SD increase (1.20; 4.14), p = 0.011, C-index 0.80). In ACS patients the prognostic power of both miRNAs was even higher (miRNA-197: HR 2.24 per one SD increase (1.25; 4.01), p = 0.006, C-index 0.89); miRA-223: HR 4.94 per one SD increase (1.42; 17.20), p = 0.012, C-index 0.89). Serum-derived circulating miRNA-197 and miRNA-223 were identified as predictors for cardiovascular death in a large patient cohort with CAD. These results reinforce the assumption that circulating miRNAs are promising biomarkers with prognostic value with respect to future cardiovascular events.

Application of Data-Driven Evidential Belief Functions to Prospectivity Mapping for Aquamarine-Bearing Pegmatites, Lundazi District, Zambia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carranza, E. J. M., E-mail: carranza@itc.nl; Woldai, T.; Chikambwe, E. M.

A case application of data-driven estimation of evidential belief functions (EBFs) is demonstrated to prospectivity mapping in Lundazi district (eastern Zambia). Spatial data used to represent recognition criteria of prospectivity for aquamarine-bearing pegmatites include mapped granites, mapped faults/fractures, mapped shear zones, and radioelement concentration ratios derived from gridded airborne radiometric data. Data-driven estimates EBFs take into account not only (a) spatial association between an evidential map layer and target deposits but also (b) spatial relationships between classes of evidences in an evidential map layer. Data-driven estimates of EBFs can indicate which spatial data provide positive or negative evidence of prospectivity.more » Data-driven estimates of EBFs of only spatial data providing positive evidence of prospectivity were integrated according to Dempster's rule of combination. Map of integrated degrees of belief was used to delineate zones of relative degress of prospectivity for aquamarine-bearing pegmatites. The predictive map has at least 85% prediction rate and at least 79% success rate of delineating training and validation deposits, respectively. The results illustrate usefulness of data-driven estimation of EBFs in GIS-based predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity. The results also show usefulness of EBFs in managing uncertainties associated with evidential maps.« less

Peer Victimization in Childhood and Internalizing Problems in Adolescence: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwierzynska, Karolina; Wolke, Dieter; Lereya, Tanya S.

2013-01-01

Traumatic childhood experiences have been found to predict later internalizing problems. This prospective longitudinal study investigated whether repeated and intentional harm doing by peers (peer victimization) in childhood predicts internalizing symptoms in early adolescence. 3,692 children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and…

Source-Specific Oppositional Defiant Disorder among Inner-City Children: Prospective Prediction and Moderation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drabick, Deborah A. G.; Bubier, Jennifer; Chen, Diane; Price, Julia; Lanza, H. Isabella

2011-01-01

We examined prospective prediction from parent- and teacher-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms to parent-reported ODD, conduct disorder (CD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms and whether child executive functioning abilities moderated these relations among an urban, low-income sample of…

Analysis of Science and Technology Trend Based on Word Usage in Digitized Books

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Jinhyuk; Kim, Pan-Jun; Jeong, Hawoong

2013-03-01

Throughout mankind's history, forecasting and predicting future has been a long-lasting interest to our society. Many fortune-tellers have tried to forecast the future by ``divine'' items. Sci-fi writers have also imagined what the future would look like. However most of them have been illogical and unscientific. Meanwhile, scientists have also attempted to discover future trend of science. Many researchers have used quantitative models to study how new ideas are used and spread. Besides the modeling works, in the early 21st century, the rise of data science has provided another prospect of forecasting future. However many studies have focused on very limited set of period or age, due to the limitations of dataset. Hence, many questions still remained unanswered. Fortunately, Google released a new dataset named ``Google N-Gram Dataset.'' This dataset provides us with 5 million words worth of literature dating from 1520 to 2008, and this is nearly 4% of publications ever printed. With this new time-varying dataset, we studied the spread and development of technologies by searching ``Science and Technology'' related words from 1800 to 2000. By statistical analysis, some general scaling laws were discovered. And finally, we determined factors that strongly affect the lifecycle of a word.

Neural Substrates of Semantic Prospection – Evidence from the Dementias

PubMed Central

Irish, Muireann; Eyre, Nadine; Dermody, Nadene; O’Callaghan, Claire; Hodges, John R.; Hornberger, Michael; Piguet, Olivier

2016-01-01

The ability to envisage personally relevant events at a future time point represents an incredibly sophisticated cognitive endeavor and one that appears to be intimately linked to episodic memory integrity. Far less is known regarding the neurocognitive mechanisms underpinning the capacity to envisage non-personal future occurrences, known as semantic future thinking. Moreover the degree of overlap between the neural substrates supporting episodic and semantic forms of prospection remains unclear. To this end, we sought to investigate the capacity for episodic and semantic future thinking in Alzheimer’s disease (n = 15) and disease-matched behavioral-variant frontotemporal dementia (n = 15), neurodegenerative disorders characterized by significant medial temporal lobe (MTL) and frontal pathology. Participants completed an assessment of past and future thinking across personal (episodic) and non-personal (semantic) domains, as part of a larger neuropsychological battery investigating episodic and semantic processing, and their performance was contrasted with 20 age- and education-matched healthy older Controls. Participants underwent whole-brain T1-weighted structural imaging and voxel-based morphometry analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between gray matter integrity and episodic and semantic future thinking. Relative to Controls, both patient groups displayed marked future thinking impairments, extending across episodic and semantic domains. Analyses of covariance revealed that while episodic future thinking deficits could be explained solely in terms of episodic memory proficiency, semantic prospection deficits reflected the interplay between episodic and semantic processing. Distinct neural correlates emerged for each form of future simulation with differential involvement of prefrontal, lateral temporal, and medial temporal regions. Notably, the hippocampus was implicated irrespective of future thinking domain, with the suggestion of lateralization effects depending on the type of information being simulated. Whereas episodic future thinking related to right hippocampal integrity, semantic future thinking was found to relate to left hippocampal integrity. Our findings support previous observations of significant MTL involvement for semantic forms of prospection and point to distinct neurocognitive mechanisms which must be functional to support future-oriented forms of thought across personal and non-personal contexts. PMID:27252632

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

Agricultural consultancy--a career choice for veterinarians.

PubMed

Taylor, K L; Swan, R A; Chapman, H M

2000-07-01

To document the personal, educational and professional skills that characterise veterinarians pursuing careers as agricultural consultants and to determine the future direction for veterinary-related advisory services to agriculture in Australia. Thirty-six veterinarians practising as consultants in agriculture throughout Australia were sent a postal survey in 1994. A descriptive analysis was chosen because of the relatively small population available to sample. Comparisons were made on a percentage basis where appropriate. Twenty-four useable responses to the questionnaire were received. Consultants were mostly men with an agricultural background, aged 31 to 40 years. They considered their undergraduate veterinary studies to be a stepping stone into further education and practical experience and ultimately consultancy. Consultants predicted an increased reliance for their work on corporate farms, private agribusiness, research and development and sub-contracted work, rather than on family-owned farms. Consultants disagreed on the wisdom of combining consultancy activities with alternative businesses (for instance mixed veterinary practice). Only 13 consultants derived greater than 76% of their income from consultancy and 14 combined another business with consulting. The need for continuing education was considered important. Consultants predicted various future prospects for the industry. Many predicted that there would not be enough veterinarians to fulfill the demand for this type of work. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE VETERINARY PROFESSION: Results from this survey suggest that veterinary consulting will extend into finance, agronomy and marketing in addition to current skills in animal nutrition, parasite control and animal reproduction. As clients demand specialised skills and knowledge, the formation of co-operatives or companies of specialists may be beneficial to both client and consultant in the future. The consultant's role can be characterised as one of extending relevant information to clients in a useful form. Excellent communication skills are necessary, as is an understanding of rural issues and animal industries.

Health and poverty: past, present and prospects for the future.

PubMed

Najman, J M

1993-01-01

Periodically the results of class comparisons in mortality rates have been reported. These reports have permitted comparisons since the earlier part of this century to the present period. The data thus available enables us to make some tentative predictions about the likely magnitude of class inequalities in mortality in the future. We consequently argue that: the concept of class should be abandoned in favour of a more direct measure of economic inequality which emphasises those living in poverty. despite overall declines in mortality for all socioeconomic groups, in the most recent period there has been an increase in the relative mortality disadvantage in some countries. this increase in mortality disadvantage is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of people, particularly children, living in poverty. Five groups constitute the bulk of those living in poverty and, of these, three (single mothers, the aged and the disabled) are likely to increase in numbers in the future, producing a likely increase in class-related mortality inequalities. Reducing these inequalities will depend upon welfare and education initiatives more than on any changes likely to be produced by the health system.

Investigating Prospective Teachers' Teaching-Specific Hopes as Predictors of Their Sense of Personal Responsibility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay

2017-01-01

This study examined whether prospective teachers' teaching-specific hopes significantly predicted their sense of personal responsibility. A total of 503 prospective teachers voluntarily participated in the study. Correlation and structural equation modelling analyses were conducted to examine the links between prospective teachers'…

Predicting Remembering: Judgments of Prospective Memory After Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

O'Brien, Katy H; Kennedy, Mary R T

2018-06-19

Adults with traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) often struggle with prospective memory (PM), the ability to remember to complete tasks in the future, such as taking medicines on a schedule. Metamemory judgments (or how well we think we will do at remembering) are linked to strategy use and are critical for managing demands of daily living. The current project used an Internet-based virtual reality tool to assess metamemory judgments of PM following TBI. Eighteen adults with moderate to severe TBI and 20 healthy controls (HCs) played Tying the String, a virtual reality game with PM items embedded across the course of a virtual work week. Participants studied PM items and made two judgments of learning about the likelihood of recognizing the CUE, that is, when the task should be done, and of recalling the TASK, that is, what needed to be done. Participants with TBI adjusted their metamemory expectations downward, but not enough to account for poorer recall performance. Absolute difference scores of metamemory accuracy showed that healthy adults were underconfident across PM components, whereas adults with TBI were markedly overconfident about their ability to recall TASKs. Adults with TBI appear to have a general knowledge that PM tasks will be difficult but are poor monitors of actual levels of success. Because metamemory monitoring is linked to strategy use, future work should examine using this link to direct PM intervention approaches.

Substance-Use Disorders and Poverty as Prospective Predictors of First-Time Homelessness in the United States

PubMed Central

Wall, Melanie M.; Greenstein, Eliana; Grant, Bridget F.; Hasin, Deborah S.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined whether substance-use disorders and poverty predicted first-time homelessness over 3 years. Methods. We analyzed longitudinal data from waves 1 (2001–2002) and 2 (2004–2005) of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions to determine the main and interactive effects of wave 1 substance use disorders and poverty on first-time homelessness by wave 2, among those who were never homeless at wave 1 (n = 30 558). First-time homelessness was defined as having no regular place to live or having to live with others for 1 month or more as a result of having no place of one’s own since wave 1. Results. Alcohol-use disorders (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.34), drug-use disorders (AOR = 2.51), and poverty (AOR = 1.34) independently increased prospective risk for first-time homelessness, after adjustment for ecological variables. Substance-use disorders and poverty interacted to differentially influence risk for first-time homelessness (P < .05), before, but not after, adjustment for controls. Conclusions. This study reinforces the importance of both substance-use disorders and poverty in the risk for first-time homelessness, and can serve as a benchmark for future studies. Substance abuse treatment should address financial status and risk of future homelessness. PMID:24148043

Prospective Effects of Family Cohesion on Alcohol-Related Problems in Adolescence: Similarities and Differences by Race/Ethnicity.

PubMed

Reeb, Ben T; Chan, Sut Yee Shirley; Conger, Katherine J; Martin, Monica J; Hollis, Nicole D; Serido, Joyce; Russell, Stephen T

2015-10-01

Research increasingly finds that race/ethnicity needs to be taken into account in the modelling of associations between protective factors and adolescent drinking behaviors in order to understand family effects and promote positive youth development. The current study examined racial/ethnic variation in the prospective effects of family cohesion on adolescent alcohol-related problems using a nationally representative sample. Data were drawn from the first two waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and included 10,992 (50% female) non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black, Latino, and non-Hispanic White 7th-12th graders. Consistent with Hirschi's social control theory of youth delinquency, higher levels of family cohesion predicted lower levels of future adolescent alcohol-related problems, independent of race/ethnicity, sex, age, baseline alcohol-related problems, and family socioeconomic status. Findings from moderation analyses indicated that the magnitude of associations differed across groups such that the protective effect of family cohesion was strongest among White adolescents. For Latino adolescents, family cohesion was not associated with alcohol-related problems. Future longitudinal cross-racial/ethnic research is needed on common and unique mechanisms underlying differential associations between family processes and adolescent high-risk drinking. Understanding these processes could help improve preventive interventions, identify vulnerable subgroups, and inform health policy aimed at reducing alcohol-related health disparities.

[Current recommendations for basic/advanced life support : Addressing unanswered questions and future prospects].

PubMed

Fink, K; Schmid, B; Busch, H-J

2016-11-01

The revised guidelines for cardiopulmonary resuscitation were implemented by the European Resuscitation Council (ERC) in October 2015. There were few changes concerning basic and advanced life support; however, some issues were clarified compared to the ERC recommendations from 2010. The present paper summarizes the procedures of basic and advanced life support according to the current guidelines and highlights the updates of 2015. Furthermore, the article depicts future prospects of cardiopulmonary resuscitation that may improve outcome of patients after cardiac arrest in the future.

Prospective Dutch colorectal cancer cohort: an infrastructure for long-term observational, prognostic, predictive and (randomized) intervention research.

PubMed

Burbach, J P M; Kurk, S A; Coebergh van den Braak, R R J; Dik, V K; May, A M; Meijer, G A; Punt, C J A; Vink, G R; Los, M; Hoogerbrugge, N; Huijgens, P C; Ijzermans, J N M; Kuipers, E J; de Noo, M E; Pennings, J P; van der Velden, A M T; Verhoef, C; Siersema, P D; van Oijen, M G H; Verkooijen, H M; Koopman, M

2016-11-01

Systematic evaluation and validation of new prognostic and predictive markers, technologies and interventions for colorectal cancer (CRC) is crucial for optimizing patients' outcomes. With only 5-15% of patients participating in clinical trials, generalizability of results is poor. Moreover, current trials often lack the capacity for post-hoc subgroup analyses. For this purpose, a large observational cohort study, serving as a multiple trial and biobanking facility, was set up by the Dutch Colorectal Cancer Group (DCCG). The Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort is a prospective multidisciplinary nationwide observational cohort study in the Netherlands (yearly CRC incidence of 15 500). All CRC patients (stage I-IV) are eligible for inclusion, and longitudinal clinical data are registered. Patients give separate consent for the collection of blood and tumor tissue, filling out questionnaires, and broad randomization for studies according to the innovative cohort multiple randomized controlled trial design (cmRCT), serving as an alternative study design for the classic RCT. Objectives of the study include: 1) systematically collected long-term clinical data, patient-reported outcomes and biomaterials from daily CRC practice; and 2) to facilitate future basic, translational and clinical research including interventional and cost-effectiveness studies for both national and international research groups with short inclusion periods, even for studies with stringent inclusion criteria. Seven months after initiation 650 patients have been enrolled, eight centers participate, 15 centers await IRB approval and nine embedded cohort- or cmRCT-designed studies are currently recruiting patients. This cohort provides a unique multidisciplinary data, biobank, and patient-reported outcomes collection initiative, serving as an infrastructure for various kinds of research aiming to improve treatment outcomes in CRC patients. This comprehensive design may serve as an example for other tumor types.

Stakeholder Views on the Roles, Challenges, and Future Prospects of Korean and Chinese Heritage Language-Community Language Schools in Phoenix: A Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

You, Byeong-keun; Liu, Na

2011-01-01

This study examines stakeholders' perspectives on Korean and Chinese heritage language and community language (HL-CL) schools and education in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, Arizona. It investigates and compares the roles, major challenges, and future prospects of Korean and Chinese HL-CL schools as viewed by principals, teachers, and parents. To…

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Ou, Mi-Lim

2004-01-01

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in ths direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

Classification of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) according to the new Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2017: Comparison with GOLD 2011.

PubMed

Marçôa, Raquel; Rodrigues, Daniela Marta; Dias, Margarida; Ladeira, Inês; Vaz, Ana Paula; Lima, Ricardo; Guimarães, Miguel

2018-02-01

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) project has been working to improve awareness, prevention and management of this disease. The aim of this study is to evaluate how COPD patients are reclassified by the 2017 GOLD system (versus GOLD 2011), to calculate the level of agreement between these two classifications in allocation to categories and to compare the performance of each classification to predict future exacerbations. Two-hundred COPD patients (>40 years, post bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity<0.7) followed in pulmonology consultation were recruited into this prospective multicentric study. Approximately half of the patients classified as GOLD D [2011] changed to GOLD B [2017]. The extent of agreement between GOLD 2011 and GOLD 2017 was moderate (Cohen's Kappa = 0.511; p < 0.001) and the ability to predict exacerbations was similar (69.7% and 67.6%, respectively). GOLD B [2017] exacerbated 17% more than GOLD B [2011] and had a lower percent predicted post bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). GOLD B [2017] turned to be the predominant category, more heterogeneous and with a higher risk of exacerbation versus GOLD B [2011]. Physicians should be cautious in assessing the GOLD B [2017] patients. The assessment of patients should always be personalized. More studies are needed to evaluate the impact of the 2017 reclassification in predicting outcomes such as future exacerbations and mortality.

Two-year prospective study of major depressive disorder in HIV-infected men.

PubMed

Atkinson, J Hampton; Heaton, Robert K; Patterson, Thomas L; Wolfson, Tanya; Deutsch, Reena; Brown, Stephen J; Summers, J; Sciolla, A; Gutierrez, R; Ellis, Ronald J; Abramson, Ian; Hesselink, John R; McCutchan, J Allen; Grant, Igor

2008-06-01

The risks and factors contributing to major depressive episodes in HIV infection remain unclear. This 2-year prospective study compared cumulative rates and predictors of a major depressive episode in HIV-infected (HIV+) men (N=297) and uninfected (HIV-) risk-group controls (N=90). By design participants at entry were without current major depression, substance dependence or major anxiety disorder. Standardized neuromedical, neuropsychological, neuroimaging, life events, and psychiatric assessments (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM III-R) were conducted semi-annually for those with AIDS, and annually for all others. Lifetime prevalence of major depression or other psychiatric disorder did not differ at baseline between HIV+ men and controls. On a two-year follow-up those with symptomatic HIV disease were significantly more likely to experience a major depressive episode than were asymptomatic HIV+ individuals and HIV-controls (p<0.05). Episodes were as likely to be first onset as recurrent depression. After baseline disease stage and medical variables associated with HIV infection were controlled, a lifetime history of major depression, or of lifetime psychiatric comorbidity (two or more psychiatric disorders), predicted subsequent major depressive episode (p<0.05). Neither HIV disease progression during follow-up, nor the baseline presence of neurocognitive impairment, clinical brain imaging abnormality, or marked life adversity predicted a later major depressive episode. Research cohort of men examined before era of widespread use of advanced anti-HIV therapies. Symptomatic HIV disease, but not HIV infection itself, increases intermediate-term risk of major depression. Prior psychiatric history most strongly predicted future vulnerability.

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

Anxious or Depressed and Still Happy?

PubMed Central

Spinhoven, Philip; Elzinga, Bernet M.; Giltay, Erik; Penninx, Brenda W. J. H.

2015-01-01

This study aimed to examine cross-sectionally to what extent persons with higher symptom levels or a current or past emotional disorder report to be less happy than controls and to assess prospectively whether time-lagged measurements of extraversion and neuroticism predict future happiness independent of time-lagged measurements of emotional disorders or symptom severity. A sample of 2142 adults aged 18–65, consisting of healthy controls and persons with current or past emotional disorder according to DSM-IV criteria completed self-ratings for happiness and emotional well-being and symptom severity. Lagged measurements of personality, symptom severity and presence of anxiety and depressive disorder at T0 (year 0), T2 (year 2) and T4 (year 4) were used to predict happiness and emotional well-being at T6 (year 6) controlling for demographics. In particular persons with more depressive symptoms, major depressive disorder, social anxiety disorder and comorbid emotional disorders reported lower levels of happiness and emotional well-being. Depression symptom severity and to a lesser extent depressive disorder predicted future happiness and emotional well-being at T6. Extraversion and to a lesser extent neuroticism also consistently forecasted future happiness and emotional well-being independent of concurrent lagged measurements of emotional disorders and symptoms. A study limitation is that we only measured happiness and emotional well-being at T6 and our measures were confined to hedonistic well-being and did not include psychological and social well-being. In sum, consistent with the two continua model of emotional well-being and mental illness, a ‘happy’ personality characterized by high extraversion and to a lesser extent low neuroticism forecasts future happiness and emotional well-being independent of concurrently measured emotional disorders or symptom severity levels. Boosting positive emotionality may be an important treatment goal for persons personally inclined to lower levels of happiness. PMID:26461261

Potential Psychosocial Risk Factors for Chronic TMD: Descriptive Data and Empirically Identified Domains from the OPPERA Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Fillingim, Roger B.; Ohrbach, Richard; Greenspan, Joel D.; Knott, Charles; Dubner, Ronald; Bair, Eric; Baraian, Cristina; Slade, Gary D.; Maixner, William

2011-01-01

Case-control studies have consistently associated psychosocial factors with chronic pain in general, and with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) specifically. Moreover, a handful of prospective studies suggest that pre-existing psychosocial characteristics represent risk factors for new onset TMD. The current study presents psychosocial findings from the baseline case-control study of the Orofacial Pain Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) cooperative agreement. For this study, 1,633 TMD-free controls and 185 TMD cases completed a battery of psychosocial instruments assessing general psychosocial adjustment and personality, affective distress, psychosocial stress, somatic awareness, and pain coping and catastrophizing. In bivariate and demographically-adjusted analyses, odds of TMD were associated with higher levels of psychosocial symptoms, affective distress, somatic awareness, and pain catastrophizing. Among controls, significant gender and ethnic group differences in psychosocial measures were observed, consistent with previous findings. Principal component analysis was undertaken to identify latent constructs revealing four components: stress and negative affectivity, global psychosocial symptoms, passive pain coping, and active pain coping. These findings provide further evidence of associations between psychosocial factors and TMD. Future prospective analyses in the OPPERA cohort will determine if the premorbid presence of these psychosocial factors predicts increased risk for developing new-onset TMD. PMID:22074752

An emission-weighted proximity model for air pollution exposure assessment.

PubMed

Zou, Bin; Wilson, J Gaines; Zhan, F Benjamin; Zeng, Yongnian

2009-08-15

Among the most common spatial models for estimating personal exposure are Traditional Proximity Models (TPMs). Though TPMs are straightforward to configure and interpret, they are prone to extensive errors in exposure estimates and do not provide prospective estimates. To resolve these inherent problems with TPMs, we introduce here a novel Emission Weighted Proximity Model (EWPM) to improve the TPM, which takes into consideration the emissions from all sources potentially influencing the receptors. EWPM performance was evaluated by comparing the normalized exposure risk values of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) calculated by EWPM with those calculated by TPM and monitored observations over a one-year period in two large Texas counties. In order to investigate whether the limitations of TPM in potential exposure risk prediction without recorded incidence can be overcome, we also introduce a hybrid framework, a 'Geo-statistical EWPM'. Geo-statistical EWPM is a synthesis of Ordinary Kriging Geo-statistical interpolation and EWPM. The prediction results are presented as two potential exposure risk prediction maps. The performance of these two exposure maps in predicting individual SO(2) exposure risk was validated with 10 virtual cases in prospective exposure scenarios. Risk values for EWPM were clearly more agreeable with the observed concentrations than those from TPM. Over the entire study area, the mean SO(2) exposure risk from EWPM was higher relative to TPM (1.00 vs. 0.91). The mean bias of the exposure risk values of 10 virtual cases between EWPM and 'Geo-statistical EWPM' are much smaller than those between TPM and 'Geo-statistical TPM' (5.12 vs. 24.63). EWPM appears to more accurately portray individual exposure relative to TPM. The 'Geo-statistical EWPM' effectively augments the role of the standard proximity model and makes it possible to predict individual risk in future exposure scenarios resulting in adverse health effects from environmental pollution.

Predicting the pain continuum after adolescent idiopathic scoliosis surgery: A prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Chidambaran, V.; Ding, L.; Moore, D.L.; Spruance, K.; Cudilo, E.M.; Pilipenko, V.; Hossain, M.; Sturm, P.; Kashikar-Zuck, S.; Martin, L.J.; Sadhasivam, S.

2017-01-01

Background Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) affects half a million children annually in the United States, with dire socioeconomic consequences, including long-term disability into adulthood. The few studies of CPSP in children are limited by sample size, follow-up duration, non-homogeneity of surgical procedure and factors evaluated. Methods In a prospective study of 144 adolescents undergoing a single major surgery (spine fusion), we evaluated demographic, perioperative, surgical and psychosocial factors as predictors of a continuum of postsurgical pain: immediate, pain maintenance at 2–3 months (chronic pain/CP) and persistence of pain a year (persistent pain/PP) after surgery. Results We found an incidence of 37.8% and 41.8% for CP and PP. CP and acute pain were both significant predictors for developing PP (p-value <0.001 and 0.003). Preoperative pain and higher postoperative opioid requirement was significantly associated with CP (p = 0.015, p = 0.002), while Childhood Anxiety Sensitivity Index (p = 0.002) and surgical duration (p = 0.014) predicted PP. The final regression models had reasonable predictive accuracy (c-statistic of 0.73 and 0.83 for CP and PP, respectively). Anxiety scores and catastrophizing for child and parent were found to be significantly correlated (p = 0.005, p = 0.013 respectively). Pain trajectories revealed that 65% of patients who developed PP reported CP and high pain trends; however, 33% of those who developed PP could not be identified using solely pain criteria. Conclusion Persistent postsurgical pain in children is a significant problem. It can be predicted in part by combinations of psychological and clinical variables, which may provide evidence-based measures to prevent development of CPSP in the future. Significance In a homogeneous cohort of adolescents undergoing spine fusion, we report a high incidence of persistent postsurgical pain (41.8%) predicted by child anxiety, perioperative pain, and surgical duration. Our results stress timely preventive and therapeutic strategies. PMID:28346762

Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery.

PubMed

Tucker, Jalie A; Cheong, JeeWon; Chandler, Susan D; Lambert, Brice H; Pietrzak, Brittney; Kwok, Heather; Davies, Susan L

2016-12-01

As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. This study compared the predictive utility of this money-based "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts. Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of preresolution drinking practices and problems, analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks), and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the preresolution year. Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced preresolution allocations to drinking and savings (odds ratio = 1.77, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 3.08, p < 0.05), suggesting it is associated with longer-term behavior regulation processes than abstinence. The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of behavioral allocation. Stable low-risk drinking, but not abstinence, requires such regulatory processes. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Identical anthropometric characteristics of impaired fasting glucose combined with impaired glucose tolerance and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: anthropometric indicators to predict hyperglycaemia in a community-based prospective cohort study in southwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Fang; Wan, Qin; Cao, Hongyi; Tang, Lizhi; Li, Daigang; Lü, Qingguo; Yan, Zhe; Li, Jing; Yang, Qiu; Zhang, Yuwei; Tong, Nanwei

2018-01-01

Objectives To assess the anthropometric characteristics of normoglycaemic individuals who subsequently developed hyperglycaemia, and to evaluate the validity of these measures to predict prediabetes and diabetes. Design A community-based prospective cohort study. Participants In total, 1885 residents with euglycaemia at baseline from six communities were enrolled. Setting Sichuan, southwest China. Primary outcome measures The incidences of prediabetes and diabetes were the primary outcomes. Methods The waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) of all participants were measured at baseline and during follow-up. A 75 g glucose oral glucose tolerance test was conducted at each survey. Results During a median of 3.00 (IQR: 2.92–4.17) years follow-up, the cumulative incidence of isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG), isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), IFG combined with IGT (IFG+IGT), and newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus (NDDM) were 8.44%, 18.14%, 8.06% and 13.79%, respectively. WHtR, BMI, WC and WHR were significantly different among subjects who subsequently progressed to isolated IFG or IGT, IFG+IGT or NDDM (p<0.05). The anthropometric characteristics of IFG+IGT subjects were similar to those of the NDDM population (p>0.005). All the baseline anthropometric measurements were useful for the prediction of future prediabetes and NDDM (p<0.05). The optimal thresholds for the four measurements were calculated for the prediction of hyperglycaemia, with a WHtR value of 0.52 performing best to identify isolated IFG or IGT, IFG+IGT and NDDM. Conclusions Anthropometric measures, especially WHtR, could be used to predict hyperglycaemia 3 years in advance. Distinct from isolated IFG and IGT, the individuals who developed combined IFG+IGT had identical anthropometric profiles to those who progressed to NDDM. PMID:29743321

Comparative utility of the BESTest, mini-BESTest, and brief-BESTest for predicting falls in individuals with Parkinson disease: a cohort study.

PubMed

Duncan, Ryan P; Leddy, Abigail L; Cavanaugh, James T; Dibble, Leland E; Ellis, Terry D; Ford, Matthew P; Foreman, K Bo; Earhart, Gammon M

2013-04-01

The newly developed brief-balance evaluation system test (brief-BESTest) may be useful for measuring balance and predicting falls in individuals with Parkinson disease (PD). The purposes of this study were: (1) to describe the balance performance of those with PD using the brief-BESTest, (2) to determine the relationships among the scores derived from the 3 versions of the BESTest (i.e., full BESTest, mini-BESTest, and brief-BESTest), and (3) to compare the accuracy of the brief-BESTest with that of the mini-BESTest and BESTest in identifying recurrent fallers among people with PD. This was a prospective cohort study. Eighty participants with PD completed a baseline balance assessment. All participants reported a fall history during the previous 6 months. Fall history was again collected 6 months (n=51) and 12 months (n=40) later. At baseline, participants had varying levels of balance impairment, and brief-BESTest scores were significantly correlated with mini-BESTest (r=.94, P<.001) and BESTest (r=.95, P<.001) scores. Six-month retrospective fall prediction accuracy of the Brief-BESTest was moderately high (area under the curve [AUC]=0.82, sensitivity=0.76, and specificity=0.84). Prospective fall prediction accuracy over 6 months was similarly accurate (AUC=0.88, sensitivity=0.71, and specificity=0.87), but was less sensitive over 12 months (AUC=0.76, sensitivity=0.53, and specificity=0.93). The sample included primarily individuals with mild to moderate PD. Also, there was a moderate dropout rate at 6 and 12 months. All versions of the BESTest were reasonably accurate in identifying future recurrent fallers, especially during the 6 months following assessment. Clinicians can reasonably rely on the brief-BESTest for predicting falls, particularly when time and equipment constraints are of concern.

[How exactly can we predict the prognosis of COPD].

PubMed

Atiş, Sibel; Kanik, Arzu; Ozgür, Eylem Sercan; Eker, Suzan; Tümkaya, Münir; Ozge, Cengiz

2009-01-01

Predictive models play a pivotal role in the provision of accurate and useful probabilistic assessments of clinical outcomes in chronic diseases. This study was aimed to develop a dedicated prognostic index for quantifying progression risk in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Data were collected prospectively from 75 COPD patients during a three years period. A predictive model of progression risk of COPD was developed using Bayesian logistic regression analysis by Markov chain Monte Carlo method. One-year cycles were used for the disease progression in this model. Primary end points for progression were impairment in basal dyspne index (BDI) score, FEV(1) decline, and exacerbation frequency in last three years. Time-varying covariates age, smoking, body mass index (BMI), severity of disease according to GOLD, PaO2, PaCO(2), IC, RV/TLC, DLCO were used under the study. The mean age was 57.1 + or - 8.1. BDI were strongly correlated with exacerbation frequency (p= 0.001) but not with FEV(1) decline. BMI was found to be a predictor factor for impairment in BDI (p= 0.03). The following independent risk factors were significant to predict exacerbation frequency: GOLD staging (OR for GOLD I vs. II and III = 2.3 and 4.0), hypoxemia (OR for mild vs moderate and severe = 2.1 and 5.1) and hyperinflation (OR= 1.6). PaO2 (p= 0.026), IC (p= 0.02) and RV/TLC (p= 0.03) were found to be predictive factors for FEV(1) decline. The model estimated BDI, lung function and exacerbation frequency at the last time point by testing initial data of three years with 95% reliability (p< 0.001). Accordingly, this model was evaluated as confident of 95% for assessing the future status of COPD patients. Using Bayesian predictive models, it was possible to develop a risk-stratification index that accurately predicted progression of COPD. This model can provide decision-making about future in COPD patients with high reliability looking clinical data of beginning.

Isokinetic strength assessment offers limited predictive validity for detecting risk of future hamstring strain in sport: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Green, Brady; Bourne, Matthew N; Pizzari, Tania

2018-03-01

To examine the value of isokinetic strength assessment for predicting risk of hamstring strain injury, and to direct future research into hamstring strain injuries. Systematic review. Database searches for Medline, CINAHL, Embase, AMED, AUSPORT, SPORTDiscus, PEDro and Cochrane Library from inception to April 2017. Manual reference checks, ahead-of-press and citation tracking. Prospective studies evaluating isokinetic hamstrings, quadriceps and hip extensor strength testing as a risk factor for occurrence of hamstring muscle strain. Independent search result screening. Risk of bias assessment by independent reviewers using Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Best evidence synthesis and meta-analyses of standardised mean difference (SMD). Twelve studies were included, capturing 508 hamstring strain injuries in 2912 athletes. Isokinetic knee flexor, knee extensor and hip extensor outputs were examined at angular velocities ranging 30-300°/s, concentric or eccentric, and relative (Nm/kg) or absolute (Nm) measures. Strength ratios ranged between 30°/s and 300°/s. Meta-analyses revealed a small, significant predictive effect for absolute (SMD=-0.16, P=0.04, 95% CI -0.31 to -0.01) and relative (SMD=-0.17, P=0.03, 95% CI -0.33 to -0.014) eccentric knee flexor strength (60°/s). No other testing speed or strength ratio showed statistical association. Best evidence synthesis found over half of all variables had moderate or strong evidence for no association with future hamstring injury. Despite an isolated finding for eccentric knee flexor strength at slow speeds, the role and application of isokinetic assessment for predicting hamstring strain risk should be reconsidered, particularly given costs and specialised training required. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

Prospect of future housing and risk of psychological distress at 1 year after an earthquake disaster.

PubMed

Nakaya, Naoki; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Tsuchiya, Naho; Narita, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tomita, Hiroaki

2016-04-01

Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, many of the affected have been forced to live in temporary housing or at a relative's house. Special attention needs to be paid to the negative health impacts resulting from such changes in living conditions. This study examined the association between future housing prospects and the risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake. In 2012, a questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional study of people aged 20 years or older living in Shichigahama Town, Miyagi, northeastern Japan, an area that had been severely inundated by the tsunami. Future housing prospects post-earthquake were classified into four categories: already settled in permanent housing, moving to new housing, under consideration, or unable to make any plans. Psychological distress was evaluated using the Kessler 6 scale, defined as ≥5 points out of 24. We performed multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounding factors. Of the 3614 individuals studied, subjects whose future housing was under consideration (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-2.7, P < 0.01) and those who were unable to make any future housing plans (OR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.4-2.5, P < 0.01) exhibited a significantly higher risk of psychological distress compared with subjects who had already settled in permanent housing. In this study, subjects whose future housing prospects were under consideration and those who were unable to make any future housing plans were at a higher risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake disaster. © 2015 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2015 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Validating prediction scales of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain: the SPREDIA-2 population-based prospective cohort study protocol

PubMed Central

Salinero-Fort, Miguel Ángel; de Burgos-Lunar, Carmen; Mostaza Prieto, José; Lahoz Rallo, Carlos; Abánades-Herranz, Juan Carlos; Gómez-Campelo, Paloma; Laguna Cuesta, Fernando; Estirado De Cabo, Eva; García Iglesias, Francisca; González Alegre, Teresa; Fernández Puntero, Belén; Montesano Sánchez, Luis; Vicent López, David; Cornejo Del Río, Víctor; Fernández García, Pedro J; Sabín Rodríguez, Concesa; López López, Silvia; Patrón Barandío, Pedro

2015-01-01

Introduction The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing worldwide. When diagnosed, many patients already have organ damage or advance subclinical atherosclerosis. An early diagnosis could allow the implementation of lifestyle changes and treatment options aimed at delaying the progression of the disease and to avoid cardiovascular complications. Different scores for identifying undiagnosed diabetes have been reported, however, their performance in populations of southern Europe has not been sufficiently evaluated. The main objectives of our study are: to evaluate the screening performance and cut-off points of the main scores that identify the risk of undiagnosed T2DM and prediabetes in a Spanish population, and to develop and validate our own predictive models of undiagnosed T2DM (screening model), and future T2DM (prediction risk model) after 5-year follow-up. As a secondary objective, we will evaluate the atherosclerotic burden of the population with undiagnosed T2DM. Methods and analysis Population-based prospective cohort study with baseline screening, to evaluate the performance of the FINDRISC, DANISH, DESIR, ARIC and QDScore, against the gold standard tests: Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance and/or HbA1c. The sample size will include 1352 participants between the ages of 45 and 74 years. Analysis: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratio positive, likelihood ratio negative and receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curve. Binary logistic regression for the first 700 individuals (derivation) and last 652 (validation) will be performed. All analyses will be calculated with their 95% CI; statistical significance will be p<0.05. Ethics and dissemination The study protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Carlos III Hospital (Madrid). The score performance and predictive model will be presented in medical conferences, workshops, seminars and round table discussions. Furthermore, the predictive model will be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal to further increase the exposure of the scores. PMID:26220868

Variables Predicting Prospective Biology Teachers' Acceptance Perceptions Regarding Gene Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yilmaz, Mirac; Demirhan, Haydar

2014-01-01

The different opinions on products and applications of gene technology (GT) draw attention to the training and education activities related to GT. The purpose of this study is to review some variables predicting the acceptance perception regarding GT, and to investigate their changes at levels. The prospective teachers' subjective knowledge and…

The influence of emotional cues on prospective memory: a systematic review with meta-analyses.

PubMed

Hostler, Thomas J; Wood, Chantelle; Armitage, Christopher J

2018-01-10

Remembering to perform a behaviour in the future, prospective memory, is essential to ensuring that people fulfil their intentions. Prospective memory involves committing to memory a cue to action (encoding), and later recognising and acting upon the cue in the environment (retrieval). Prospective memory performance is believed to be influenced by the emotionality of the cues, however the literature is fragmented and inconsistent. We conducted a systematic search to synthesise research on the influence of emotion on prospective memory. Sixty-seven effect sizes were extracted from 17 articles and hypothesised effects tested using three meta-analyses. Overall, prospective memory was enhanced when positively-valenced rather than neutral cues were presented (d = 0.32). In contrast, negatively-valenced cues did not enhance prospective memory overall (d = 0.07), but this effect was moderated by the timing of the emotional manipulation. Prospective memory performance was improved when negatively-valenced cues were presented during both encoding and retrieval (d = 0.40), but undermined when presented only during encoding (d = -0.25). Moderating effects were also found for cue-focality and whether studies controlled for the arousal level of the cues. The principal finding is that positively-valenced cues improve prospective memory performance and that timing of the manipulation can moderate emotional effects on prospective memory. We offer a new agenda for future empirical work and theorising in this area.

Solar radio proxies for improved satellite orbit prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaya, Philippe; Hecker, Louis; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Fèvre, Clémence Le; Bruinsma, Sean

2017-12-01

Specification and forecasting of solar drivers to thermosphere density models is critical for satellite orbit prediction and debris avoidance. Satellite operators routinely forecast orbits up to 30 days into the future. This requires forecasts of the drivers to these orbit prediction models such as the solar Extreme-UV (EUV) flux and geomagnetic activity. Most density models use the 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7 index) as a proxy for solar EUV. However, daily measurements at other centimetric wavelengths have also been performed by the Nobeyama Radio Observatory (Japan) since the 1950's, thereby offering prospects for improving orbit modeling. Here we present a pre-operational service at the Collecte Localisation Satellites company that collects these different observations in one single homogeneous dataset and provides a 30 days forecast on a daily basis. Interpolation and preprocessing algorithms were developed to fill in missing data and remove anomalous values. We compared various empirical time series prediction techniques and selected a multi-wavelength non-recursive analogue neural network. The prediction of the 30 cm flux, and to a lesser extent that of the 10.7 cm flux, performs better than NOAA's present prediction of the 10.7 cm flux, especially during periods of high solar activity. In addition, we find that the DTM-2013 density model (Drag Temperature Model) performs better with (past and predicted) values of the 30 cm radio flux than with the 10.7 flux.

Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird

PubMed Central

Becker, Peter H.; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C.; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

2008-01-01

In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness. PMID:18711134

The Impact of Prenatal Parental Locus of Control on Children's Psychological Outcomes in Infancy and Early Childhood: A Prospective 5 Year Study

PubMed Central

Nowicki, Stephen; Iles-Caven, Yasmin; Gregory, Steven; Ellis, Genette; Golding, Jean

2017-01-01

Locus of control is one of the most widely studied concepts in the history of personality psychology. In spite of its popularity and its associations with numerous relevant outcomes, the ability of locus of control to predict future behaviors involving parenting effectiveness has been under researched. The few parent locus of control children's outcome studies are characterized by cross-sectional methodologies that focus on mothers. The present study uses a prospective methodology to compare data on mothers' and fathers' locus of control with their child's behavior outcomes from a large scale research project, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Based on Rotter's Social Learning Theory published in 1954 and past empirical research, it was predicted and found that parent internality was associated with more positive child outcomes than parent externality. More specifically, when both parents were internal, their children had more positive outcomes in sleeping, eating, and tantrum behavior as compared to any other parent locus of control combination. However external parents had a less restrictive attitude which appeared to have a more beneficial effect on picky eating. Results confirmed how important parent locus of control is in the lives of children. Based on the findings, researchers are urged to develop interventions to change advice to parents and promote more internal locus of control among parents. PMID:28446887

Predicting problems in school performance from preschool health, developmental and behavioural assessments.

PubMed Central

Cadman, D; Walter, S D; Chambers, L W; Ferguson, R; Szatmari, P; Johnson, N; McNamee, J

1988-01-01

To determine the accuracy of various predictors of school problems, we conducted a 3-year prospective study of 1999 children who began school in the Niagara region of Ontario in 1980. During the year before school entry the parents gave a health, developmental and behavioural history during an interview with a community health nurse, and the children underwent vision and hearing screening tests and the Denver Developmental Screening Test (DDST). At the end of the 1980-81 school year the kindergarten teachers rated the children's learning problems. At the end of the 1982-83 school year the presence of school problems was ascertained, and the predictive accuracy of items from the preschool history and examination and of the kindergarten teachers' ratings was calculated. The health, developmental and behavioural history with or without the DDST was found to predict later school problems with acceptable accuracy. The kindergarten teachers' ratings gave slightly more accurate predictions. We conclude that in communities where prompt diagnostic evaluation and effective therapeutic or preventive help can be provided to children identified as being at high risk, health professionals may play a useful role in screening for future school problems. PMID:3383038

Macromolecular target prediction by self-organizing feature maps.

PubMed

Schneider, Gisbert; Schneider, Petra

2017-03-01

Rational drug discovery would greatly benefit from a more nuanced appreciation of the activity of pharmacologically active compounds against a diverse panel of macromolecular targets. Already, computational target-prediction models assist medicinal chemists in library screening, de novo molecular design, optimization of active chemical agents, drug re-purposing, in the spotting of potential undesired off-target activities, and in the 'de-orphaning' of phenotypic screening hits. The self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm has been employed successfully for these and other purposes. Areas covered: The authors recapitulate contemporary artificial neural network methods for macromolecular target prediction, and present the basic SOM algorithm at a conceptual level. Specifically, they highlight consensus target-scoring by the employment of multiple SOMs, and discuss the opportunities and limitations of this technique. Expert opinion: Self-organizing feature maps represent a straightforward approach to ligand clustering and classification. Some of the appeal lies in their conceptual simplicity and broad applicability domain. Despite known algorithmic shortcomings, this computational target prediction concept has been proven to work in prospective settings with high success rates. It represents a prototypic technique for future advances in the in silico identification of the modes of action and macromolecular targets of bioactive molecules.

Recurrent triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) tissues contain a higher amount of phosphatidylcholine (32:1) than non-recurrent TNBC tissues

PubMed Central

Masaki, Noritaka; Takei, Shiro; Horikawa, Makoto; Matsushita, Shoko; Sugiyama, Eiji; Ogura, Hiroyuki; Shiiya, Norihiko; Setou, Mitsutoshi

2017-01-01

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is one of the breast cancer subtype that displays a high risk of early recurrence and short overall survival. Improvement of the prognosis of patients with TNBC requires identifying a predictive factor of recurrence, which would make it possible to provide beneficial personalized treatment. However, no clinically reliable predictive factor is currently known. In this study, we investigated the predictive factor of recurrence in TNBC using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-imaging mass spectrometry for lipid profiling of breast cancer specimens obtained from three and six patients with recurrent and non-recurrent TNBC, respectively. The signal for phosphatidylcholine (PC) (32:1) at m/z 732.5 was significantly higher in the recurrence group compared to the non-recurrence group (P = 0.024). PC (32:1) was more abundant in the cancer epithelial area than it was in the surrounding stroma, suggesting that abnormal lipid metabolism was associated with malignant transformation. Our results indicate PC (32:1) as a candidate predictive factor of TNBC recurrence. A future prospective study investigating whether personalized therapy based on PC (32:1) intensity improves the prognosis of patients with TNBC is recommended. PMID:28832678

Action understanding and active inference

PubMed Central

Mattout, Jérémie; Kilner, James

2012-01-01

We have suggested that the mirror-neuron system might be usefully understood as implementing Bayes-optimal perception of actions emitted by oneself or others. To substantiate this claim, we present neuronal simulations that show the same representations can prescribe motor behavior and encode motor intentions during action–observation. These simulations are based on the free-energy formulation of active inference, which is formally related to predictive coding. In this scheme, (generalised) states of the world are represented as trajectories. When these states include motor trajectories they implicitly entail intentions (future motor states). Optimizing the representation of these intentions enables predictive coding in a prospective sense. Crucially, the same generative models used to make predictions can be deployed to predict the actions of self or others by simply changing the bias or precision (i.e. attention) afforded to proprioceptive signals. We illustrate these points using simulations of handwriting to illustrate neuronally plausible generation and recognition of itinerant (wandering) motor trajectories. We then use the same simulations to produce synthetic electrophysiological responses to violations of intentional expectations. Our results affirm that a Bayes-optimal approach provides a principled framework, which accommodates current thinking about the mirror-neuron system. Furthermore, it endorses the general formulation of action as active inference. PMID:21327826

Benchmarking Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Skill in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrigan, Shaun; Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Tanguy, Maliko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Skilful hydrological forecasts at weekly to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in operational water management, especially during drought conditions. Hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems are an attractive approach as they use two sources of streamflow predictability: (i) initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), where soil moisture, groundwater and snow storage states can provide an estimate of future streamflow situations, and (ii) atmospheric predictability, where skilful forecasts of weather and climate variables can be used to force hydrological models. In the UK, prediction of rainfall at long lead times and for summer months in particular is notoriously difficult given the large degree of natural climate variability in ocean influenced mid-latitude regions, but recent research has uncovered exciting prospects for improved rainfall skill at seasonal lead times due to improved prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, before we fully understand what this improved atmospheric predictability might mean in terms of improved hydrological forecasts, we must first evaluate how much skill can be gained from IHCs alone. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions. The aim of this study is therefore to benchmark when (lead time/forecast initialisation month) and where (spatial pattern/catchment characteristics) ESP is skilful across a diverse set of catchments in the UK. Forecast skill was evaluated seamlessly from lead times of 1-day to 12-months and forecasts were initialised at the first of each month over the 1965-2015 hindcast period. This ESP output also provides a robust benchmark against which to assess how much improvement in skill can be achieved when meteorological forecasts are incorporated (next steps). To provide a 'tough to beat' benchmark, several variants of ESP with increasing complexity were produced, including better model representation of hydrological processes and sub-sampling of historic climate sequences (e.g. NAO+/NAO- years). This work is part of the Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision Making (IMPETUS) project and provides insight to where advancements in atmospheric predictability is most needed in the UK in the context of water management.

Acute stress responses: A review and synthesis of ASD, ASR, and CSR.

PubMed

Isserlin, Leanna; Zerach, Gadi; Solomon, Zahava

2008-10-01

Toward the development of a unifying diagnosis for acute stress responses this article attempts to find a place for combat stress reaction (CSR) within the spectrum of other defined acute stress responses. This article critically compares the diagnostic criteria of acute stress disorder (ASD), acute stress reaction (ASR), and CSR. Prospective studies concerning the predictive value of ASD, ASR, and CSR are reviewed. Questions, recommendations, and implications for clinical practice are raised concerning the completeness of the current acute stress response diagnoses, the heterogeneity of different stressors, the scope of expected outcomes, and the importance of decline in function as an indicator of future psychological, psychiatric, and somatic distress. PsycINFO Database Record 2009 APA.

The future scientific CCD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janesick, J. R.; Elliott, T.; Collins, S.; Marsh, H.; Blouke, M. M.

1984-01-01

Since the first introduction of charge-coupled devices (CCDs) in 1970, CCDs have been considered for applications related to memories, logic circuits, and the detection of visible radiation. It is pointed out, however, that the mass market orientation of CCD development has left largely untapped the enormous potential of these devices for advanced scientific instrumentation. The present paper has, therefore, the objective to introduce the CCD characteristics to the scientific community, taking into account prospects for further improvement. Attention is given to evaluation criteria, a summary of current CCDs, CCD performance characteristics, absolute calibration tools, quantum efficiency, aspects of charge collection, charge transfer efficiency, read noise, and predictions regarding the characteristics of the next generation of silicon scientific CCD imagers.

[Review and prospect of analysis on UHMWPE wear debris in artificial hip joints].

PubMed

Wu, Jingping; Yuan, Chengqing; Yan, Xinping

2010-02-01

This paper briefly reviews the latest progress in the analyses of the technologies for artificial hip joints; and in the researches directed to the features of UHMWPE debris obtained from all kinds of experimental conditions, to the wear process and wear mechanism, and to the factors which influence the wear mechanism. Furthermore, the signification of debris atlas was illustrated. Finally, future directions to be furthered were considered and envisaged. It is suggested that emphases be laid on the relationship between the UHMWPE debris feature and the wear mechanism, and be laid synergistic effects of biochemical environment and loading environment so as to establish the predictive wear models of artificial hip joints.

Big Data and machine learning in radiation oncology: State of the art and future prospects.

PubMed

Bibault, Jean-Emmanuel; Giraud, Philippe; Burgun, Anita

2016-11-01

Precision medicine relies on an increasing amount of heterogeneous data. Advances in radiation oncology, through the use of CT Scan, dosimetry and imaging performed before each fraction, have generated a considerable flow of data that needs to be integrated. In the same time, Electronic Health Records now provide phenotypic profiles of large cohorts of patients that could be correlated to this information. In this review, we describe methods that could be used to create integrative predictive models in radiation oncology. Potential uses of machine learning methods such as support vector machine, artificial neural networks, and deep learning are also discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioural genetics: why eugenic selection is preferable to enhancement.

PubMed

Savulescu, Julian; Hemsley, Melanie; Newson, Ainsley; Foddy, Bennett

2006-01-01

Criminal behaviour is but one behavioural tendency for which a genetic influence has been suggested. Whilst this research certainly raises difficult ethical questions and is subject to scientific criticism, one recent research project suggests that for some families, criminal tendency might be predicted by genetics. In this paper, supposing this research is valid, we consider whether intervening in the criminal tendency of future children is ethically justifiable. We argue that, if avoidance of harm is a paramount consideration, such an intervention is acceptable when genetic selection is employed instead of genetic enhancement. Moreover, other moral problems in avoiding having children with a tendency to criminal behaviour, such as the prospect of social discrimination, can also be overcome.

Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations: a brief history and future prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Runge, M.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Williams, B.K.

2007-01-01

Since 1995, the US Fish and Wildlife Service has used an adaptive approach to the management of sport harvest of mid-continent Mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) in North America. This approach differs from many current approaches to conservation and management in requiring close collaboration between managers and scientists. Key elements of this process are objectives, alternative management actions, models permitting prediction of system responses, and a monitoring program. The iterative process produces optimal management decisions and leads to reduction in uncertainty about response of populations to management. This general approach to management has a number of desirable features and is recommended for use in many other programs of management and conservation.

Commentary: The Development of Creativity--Ability, Motivation, and Potential.

PubMed

Silvia, Paul J; Christensen, Alexander P; Cotter, Katherine N

2016-01-01

A major question for research on the development of creativity is whether it is interested in creative potential (a prospective approach that uses measures early in life to predict adult creativity) or in children's creativity for its own sake. We suggest that a focus on potential for future creativity diminishes the fascinating creative world of childhood. The contributions to this issue can be organized in light of an ability × motivation framework, which offers a fruitful way for thinking about the many factors that foster and impede creativity. The contributions reflect a renewed interest in the development of creativity and highlight how this area can illuminate broader problems in creativity studies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

From memory to prospection: what are the overlapping and the distinct components between remembering and imagining?

PubMed Central

Zheng, Huimin; Luo, Jiayi; Yu, Rongjun

2014-01-01

Reflecting on past events and reflecting on future events are two fundamentally different processes, each traveling in the opposite direction of the other through conceptual time. But what we are able to imagine seems to be constrained by what we have previously experienced, suggesting a close link between memory and prospection. Recent theories suggest that recalling the past lies at the core of imagining and planning for the future. The existence of this link is supported by evidence gathered from neuroimaging, lesion, and developmental studies. Yet it is not clear exactly how the novel episodes people construct in their sense of the future develop out of their historical memories. There must be intermediary processes that utilize memory as a basis on which to generate future oriented thinking. Here, we review studies on goal-directed processing, associative learning, cognitive control, and creativity and link them with research on prospection. We suggest that memory cooperates with additional functions like goal-directed learning to construct and simulate novel events, especially self-referential events. The coupling between memory-related hippocampus and other brain regions may underlie such memory-based prospection. Abnormalities in this constructive process may contribute to mental disorders such as schizophrenia. PMID:25147532

The clinical development of p53-reactivating drugs in sarcomas - charting future therapeutic approaches and understanding the clinical molecular toxicology of Nutlins.

PubMed

Biswas, Swethajit; Killick, Emma; Jochemsen, Aart G; Lunec, John

2014-05-01

The majority of human sarcomas, particularly soft tissue sarcomas, are relatively resistant to traditional cytotoxic therapies. The proof-of-concept study by Ray-Coquard et al., using the Nutlin human double minute (HDM)2-binding antagonist RG7112, has recently opened a new chapter in the molecular targeting of human sarcomas. In this review, the authors discuss the challenges and prospective remedies for minimizing the significant haematological toxicities of the cis-imidazole Nutlin HDM2-binding antagonists. Furthermore, they also chart the future direction of the development of p53-reactivating (p53-RA) drugs in 12q13-15 amplicon sarcomas and as potential chemopreventative therapies against sarcomagenesis in germ line mutated TP53 carriers. Drawing lessons from the therapeutic use of Imatinib in gastrointestinal tumours, the authors predict the potential pitfalls, which may lie in ahead for the future clinical development of p53-RA agents, as well as discussing potential non-invasive methods to identify the development of drug resistance. Medicinal chemistry strategies, based on structure-based drug design, are required to re-engineer cis-imidazoline Nutlin HDM2-binding antagonists into less haematologically toxic drugs. In silico modelling is also required to predict toxicities of other p53-RA drugs at a much earlier stage in drug development. Whether p53-RA drugs will be therapeutically effective as a monotherapy remains to be determined.

Fear of food prospectively predicts drive for thinness in an eating disorder sample recently discharged from intensive treatment.

PubMed

Levinson, Cheri A; Brosof, Leigh C; Ma, Jackie; Fewell, Laura; Lenze, Eric J

2017-12-01

Fears of food are common in individuals with eating disorders and contribute to the high relapse rates. However, it is unknown how fears of food contribute to eating disorder symptoms across time, potentially contributing to an increased likelihood of relapse. Participants diagnosed with an eating disorder (N=168) who had recently completed intensive treatment were assessed after discharge and one month later regarding fear of food, eating disorder symptoms, anxiety sensitivity, and negative affect. Cross lagged path analysis was utilized to determine if fear of food predicted subsequent eating disorder symptoms one month later. Fear of food-specifically, anxiety about eating and feared concerns about eating-predicted drive for thinness, a core symptom domain of eating disorders. These relationships held while accounting for anxiety sensitivity and negative affect. There is a specific, direct relationship between anxiety about eating and feared concerns about eating and drive for thinness. Future research should test if interventions designed to target fear of food can decrease drive for thinness and thereby prevent relapse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electronic Structure Control of Sub-nanometer 1D SnTe via Nanostructuring within Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes.

PubMed

Vasylenko, Andrij; Marks, Samuel; Wynn, Jamie M; Medeiros, Paulo V C; Ramasse, Quentin M; Morris, Andrew J; Sloan, Jeremy; Quigley, David

2018-05-25

Nanostructuring, e. g., reduction of dimensionality in materials, offers a viable route toward regulation of materials electronic and hence functional properties. Here, we present the extreme case of nanostructuring, exploiting the capillarity of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) for the synthesis of the smallest possible SnTe nanowires with cross sections as thin as a single atom column. We demonstrate that by choosing the appropriate diameter of a template SWCNT, we can manipulate the structure of the quasi-one-dimensional (1D) SnTe to design electronic behavior. From first principles, we predict the structural re-formations that SnTe undergoes in varying encapsulations and confront the prediction with TEM imagery. To further illustrate the control of physical properties by nanostructuring, we study the evolution of transport properties in a homologous series of models of synthesized and isolated SnTe nanowires varying only in morphology and atomic layer thickness. This extreme scaling is predicted to significantly enhance thermoelectric performance of SnTe, offering a prospect for further experimental studies and future applications.

The growing demand for midtrimester amniocentesis: a systems approach to forecasting the need for facilities.

PubMed Central

Selle, H F; Holmes, D W; Ingbar, M L

1979-01-01

A predicted shift in composition of the child-bearing population of the United States to higher maternal ages by year 2000 indicates that the number of chromosomally abnormal offspring of women age 35 and over will increase by 64% while the total number of women increases only 21%. We formulated a conceptual model of a health care system that predicts demand for amniocentesis from prospective patients in any particular region, the number of defective offspring detected, and the future cost of custodial care using any given level of detection effort. It was found that as capacity of clinic facilities and use by women age 35 and over in the area increased, the expenditure for amniocentesis combined with the cost of custodial care for undetected offspring decreased, assuming termination of affected pregnancies. Use of this model will enable health care managers to anticipate need for facilities, and also guide the formulation of social policy in the provision of new health services by enabling them to take into account the predictable effects of these services upon other public services. PMID:443497

Life prediction and constitutive behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.

1983-01-01

One of the primary drivers that prompted the initiation of the hot section technology (HOST) program was the recognized need for improved cyclic durability of costly hot section components. All too frequently, fatigue in one form or another was directly responsible for the less than desired durability, and prospects for the future weren't going to improve unless a significant effort was mounted to increase our knowledge and understanding of the elements governing cyclic crack initiation and propagation lifetime. Certainly one of the important factors is the ability to perform accurate structural stress-strain analyses on a routine basis to determine the magnitudes of the localized stresses and strains since it is these localized conditions that govern the initiation and crack growth processes. Developing the ability to more accurately predict crack initiation lifetimes and cyclic crack growth rates for the complex loading conditions found in turbine engine hot sections is of course the ultimate goal of the life prediction research efforts. It has been found convenient to divide the research efforts into those dealing with nominally isotropic and anisotropic alloys; the latter for application to directionally solidified and single crystal turbine blades.

Prediction of shale prospectivity from seismically-derived reservoir and completion qualities: Application to a shale-gas field, Horn River Basin, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Cheol Hoon; Lee, Gwang H.; Jeoung, Taek Ju; Ko, Kyung Nam; Kim, Ki Soo; Park, Kyung-sick; Shin, Chang Hoon

2018-04-01

Prospective shale plays require a combination of good reservoir and completion qualities. Total organic carbon (TOC) is an important reservoir quality and brittleness is the most critical condition for completion quality. We analyzed seismically-derived brittleness and TOC to investigate the prospectivity of the Horn River Group shale (the Muskwa, Otter Park, Evie shales) of a shale-gas field in the western Horn River Basin, British Columbia, Canada. We used the λρ-μρ brittleness template, constructed from the mineralogy-based brittleness index (MBI) and elastic logs from two wells, to convert the λρ and μρ volumes from prestack seismic inversion to the volume for the brittleness petrotypes (most brittle, intermediate, and least brittle). The probability maps of the most brittle petrotype for the three shales were generated from Bayesian classification, based on the λρ-μρ template. The relationship between TOC and P-wave and S-wave velocity ratio (VP/VS) at the wells allowed the conversion of the VP/VS volume from prestack inversion to the TOC volume, which in turn was used to construct the TOC maps for the three shales. Increased TOC is correlated with high brittleness, contrasting with the commonly-held understanding. Therefore, the prospectivity of the shales in the study area can be represented by high brittleness and increased TOC. We propose a shale prospectivity index (SPI), computed by the arithmetic average of the normalized probability of the most brittle petrotype and the normalized TOC. The higher SPI corresponds to higher production rates in the Muskwa and Evie shales. The areas of the highest SPI have not been fully tested. The future drilling should be focused on these areas to increase the economic viability of the field.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Malaria in Urban Ahmedabad (Gujarat), India: Identification of Hot Spots and Risk Factors for Targeted Intervention

PubMed Central

Parizo, Justin; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Dhiman, Ramesh C.; Greenhouse, Bryan

2016-01-01

The world population, especially in developing countries, has experienced a rapid progression of urbanization over the last half century. Urbanization has been accompanied by a rise in cases of urban infectious diseases, such as malaria. The complexity and heterogeneity of the urban environment has made study of specific urban centers vital for urban malaria control programs, whereas more generalizable risk factor identification also remains essential. Ahmedabad city, India, is a large urban center located in the state of Gujarat, which has experienced a significant Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum disease burden. Therefore, a targeted analysis of malaria in Ahmedabad city was undertaken to identify spatiotemporal patterns of malaria, risk factors, and methods of predicting future malaria cases. Malaria incidence in Ahmedabad city was found to be spatially heterogeneous, but temporally stable, with high spatial correlation between species. Because of this stability, a prediction method utilizing historic cases from prior years and seasons was used successfully to predict which areas of Ahmedabad city would experience the highest malaria burden and could be used to prospectively target interventions. Finally, spatial analysis showed that normalized difference vegetation index, proximity to water sources, and location within Ahmedabad city relative to the dense urban core were the best predictors of malaria incidence. Because of the heterogeneity of urban environments and urban malaria itself, the study of specific large urban centers is vital to assist in allocating resources and informing future urban planning. PMID:27382081

Renal Parenchyma to Hydronephrosis Area Ratio (PHAR) as a Predictor of Future Surgical Intervention for Infants With High-grade Prenatal Hydronephrosis.

PubMed

Rickard, Mandy; Lorenzo, Armando J; Braga, Luis H

2017-03-01

To explore the potential value of an objective assessment, renal parenchyma to hydronephrosis area ratio (PHAR), as an early predictor of surgery. Initial sagittal renal ultrasound (US) images of patients prospectively entered into a prenatal hydronephrosis database from January 2008 to January 2016 with baseline Society for Fetal Urology (SFU) grades III and IV prenatal hydronephrosis, without vesicoureteral reflux, were evaluated using the National Institutes of Health-sponsored image processing software. PHAR, anteroposterior diameter, SFU grade, and urinary tract dilation risk categories were contrasted with nuclear scan data (differential renal function and drainage time [t 1/2 ]) and analyzed for predictive value in determining the decision to proceed with surgery by drawing receiver operating characteristic curves. Out of 196 infants (162 male; 138 left sided hydronephrosis), 58 (30%) underwent surgery to address obstruction. Surgical patients compared with those managed conservatively had longer t 1/2 (60 vs 18 min; P < .01) and lower differential renal function (46 vs 50%; P = .01). Of the initial US parameters, PHAR (area under the curve = 0.816; P < .001) had a better predictive performance than anteroposterior diameter, SFU grade, or urinary tract dilation classification. PHAR values correlated with subsequent parameters obtained on nuclear scan. PHAR is a promising parameter that can be estimated on presentation US to help predict future need for surgery in newborns with high-grade hydronephrosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RELATIONSHIP OF STD-RELATED SHAME AND STIGMA TO FEMALE ADOLESCENTS’ CONDOM-PROTECTED INTERCOURSE

PubMed Central

Sales, Jessica M.; DiClemente, Ralph J.; Rose, Eve S.; Wingood, Gina M.; Klein, Jonathan D.; Woods, Elizabeth R.

2007-01-01

Purpose Shame and stigma associated with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are barriers to adolescents seeking prompt and appropriate diagnosis and treatment. However, little is known about how these constructs are related to STD-protective behaviors, such as condom-protected intercourse. Thus, we prospectively examined the relationship between shame and stigma and condom-use in adolescent females. Methods 192 African American females age 17.4 ± 1.7 years (range 15-21) were recruited for the study from local teen oriented health clinics. At baseline, participants completed demographic and psychosocial measures (including STD-related shame and stigma), and chart or laboratory confirmed history of STDs was obtained. At six months follow-up, rate of condom-protected intercourse in past 14 days prior to follow-up was assessed. Participants’ baseline shame and stigma scores, prior history of STDs, and select demographic and theoretically important psychosocial variables were entered into a hierarchical linear regression model to predict condom-protected intercourse in the 14 days prior to the 6 month follow-up assessment. Results After controlling for variables identified in bivariate correlations, STD-related shame was significantly predictive of condom-protected intercourse in the 14 days prior to follow-up, with higher shame predicting higher rates of condom-protected intercourse. Conclusions Future prevention efforts attempting to reduce adolescents’ risks for STDs and HIV may benefit from addressing STD-related shame and stigma in addition to explicitly linking health-promoting behavior changes (condom use) to a decreased likelihood of future infection with STDs. PMID:17531767

A Characterization of Individual Differences in Prospective Memory Monitoring Using the Complex Ongoing Serial Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savine, Adam C.; McDaniel, Mark A.; Shelton, Jill Talley; Scullin, Michael K.

2012-01-01

Prospective memory--remembering to retrieve and execute future goals--is essential to daily life. Prospective remembering is often achieved through effortful monitoring; however, potential individual differences in monitoring patterns have not been characterized. We propose 3 candidate models to characterize the individual differences present in…

Attitudes of Prospective High School Mathematics Teachers towards Integrating Information Technologies into Their Future Teaching.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hazzan, Orit

This paper examines why the number of high school mathematics teachers who integrate computers into their math classes remains relatively low by analyzing the attitudes of prospective high school mathematics teachers. Data were gathered from written questionnaires and class discussions of four classes of prospective high school mathematics…

Financing the Public Schools in the Great Lake States: Declining Revenues in the 1980s?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geske, Terry G.

1984-01-01

Analyzes data on the economic prospects of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin--including demographic and economic trends, trends in taxation systems, school revenue and expenditure trends, and future revenue prospects--and offers prognoses for individual states. Generally, short-range revenue prospects are bleak, and long-range…

Spiritual Expressions' Prediction of Mindfulness: The Case of Prospective Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yalçin, S. Barbaros

2018-01-01

The purpose of this research is to determine whether prospective teachers' spiritual expressions have predicted their mindfulness. The research was conducted in relational screening model. The study group consisted of 411 students (81.2%) females and 94 (18.6%) males, totally 505 undergraduate students who are studying in the last year and who…

Prospective Prediction of Functional Difficulties among Recently Separated Veterans

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

while factors following separation from the military have a primary role in predicting functional difficulties during reintegration into civilian...and protective factors for functional difficulties among Veterans. In a sample of recently separated Marines, we used stepwise logistic and multiple...military, posttraumatic stress disorder, prospective, PTSD, reintegration, risk factors , Veterans, work functioning . INTRODUCTION Studies suggest that Iraq

Dependence regulation in newlywed couples: A prospective examination.

PubMed

Derrick, Jaye L; Leonard, Kenneth E; Homish, Gregory G

2012-12-01

According to the Risk Regulation Model (Murray, S. L., Holmes, J. G., & Collins, N. L. (2006). Optimizing assurance: The risk regulation system in relationships. Psychological Bulletin, 132 , 641-666), people need to trust in their partner's regard before they risk interdependence. The current study prospectively examines the association between perceived regard and levels of dependence in newlywed couples over nine years of marriage. Analyses demonstrate that changes in perceived regard predict levels of dependence, changes in dependence do not predict perceived regard, and alternative explanations cannot account for these effects. Further, changes in perceived regard prospectively predict divorce, and levels of dependence mediate this association. Results are discussed in terms of the dependence regulation component of the Risk Regulation Model.

Aging Prisoners’ Treatment Selection: Does Prospect Theory Enhance Understanding of End-of-Life Medical Decisions?

PubMed Central

Phillips, Laura L.; Allen, Rebecca S.; Harris, Grant M.; Presnell, Andrew H.; DeCoster, Jamie; Cavanaugh, Ronald

2011-01-01

Purpose: With the rapid growth in the older inmate population and the economic impact of end-of-life treatments within the cash-strapped prison system, consideration should be given to inmate treatment preferences. We examined end-of-life treatment preferences and days of desired life for several health scenarios among male inmates incarcerated primarily for murder. Design and Methods: Inmates over the age of 45 who passed a cognitive screening completed face-to-face interviews (N = 94; mean age = 57.7; SD = 10.68). Results: We found a 3-way interaction indicating that the effect of parole expectation on desire for life-sustaining treatment varied by race/ethnicity and treatment. Minority inmates desired cardiopulmonary resuscitation or feeding tubes only if they believed that they would be paroled. The model predicting desire for palliative care was not significant. Future days of desired life were related to prospective health condition, fear of death, negative affect, and trust in prison health care. Caucasian inmates expressed a desire for more days of life out of prison, whereas minority inmates did not differ in days of desired life either in or out of prison. Minorities wanted more days of life than Caucasians but only if they believed that they would be paroled. Implications: End-of-life care for the burgeoning inmate population is costly, and active life-sustaining treatments may not be desired under certain conditions. Specifically, expectation of parole but not current functional ability interacts with future illness condition in explaining inmates’ desire for active treatment or days of desired life in the future. PMID:21593007

Polysaccharides in Lentinus edodes: isolation, structure, immunomodulating activity and future prospective.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaofei; Yan, Huidan; Tang, Jian; Chen, Jian; Zhang, Xuewu

2014-01-01

Lentinus edodes has been valued as edible and medical resources. Polysaccharides have been known to be the most potent antitumor and immunomodulating substance in Lentinus edodes. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the polysaccharides isolated from Lentinus edodes, including extraction and purification methods, chemical structure and chain conformation, the effects on innate and adaptive immunity and their mechanism, relationship between structure and function, and the future prospects.

49 CFR 1018.62 - Reasons for terminating collection action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... debtor's future financial prospects, and the exemptions available to the debtor under State and Federal... applicable statute of limitations has run, and the prospects of collecting by offset, notwithstanding the bar...

42 CFR 401.621 - Termination of collection action.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... available; (ii) The debtor's future financial prospects; and (iii) Exemptions available to the debtor under... statute of limitations has run; or (iii) The prospects of collecting by offset, whether or not an...

Stimulus-Elicited Connectivity Influences Resting-State Connectivity Years Later in Human Development: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Gabard-Durnam, Laurel Joy; Gee, Dylan Grace; Goff, Bonnie; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva; Humphreys, Kathryn Leigh; Lumian, Daniel Stephen; Fareri, Dominic Stephen; Caldera, Christina; Tottenham, Nim

2016-04-27

Although the functional architecture of the brain is indexed by resting-state connectivity networks, little is currently known about the mechanisms through which these networks assemble into stable mature patterns. The current study posits and tests the long-term phasic molding hypothesis that resting-state networks are gradually shaped by recurring stimulus-elicited connectivity across development by examining how both stimulus-elicited and resting-state functional connections of the human brain emerge over development at the systems level. Using a sequential design following 4- to 18-year-olds over a 2 year period, we examined the predictive associations between stimulus-elicited and resting-state connectivity in amygdala-cortical circuitry as an exemplar case (given this network's protracted development across these ages). Age-related changes in amygdala functional connectivity converged on the same regions of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and inferior frontal gyrus when elicited by emotional stimuli and when measured at rest. Consistent with the long-term phasic molding hypothesis, prospective analyses for both connections showed that the magnitude of an individual's stimulus-elicited connectivity unidirectionally predicted resting-state functional connectivity 2 years later. For the amygdala-mPFC connection, only stimulus-elicited connectivity during childhood and the transition to adolescence shaped future resting-state connectivity, consistent with a sensitive period ending with adolescence for the amygdala-mPFC circuit. Together, these findings suggest that resting-state functional architecture may arise from phasic patterns of functional connectivity elicited by environmental stimuli over the course of development on the order of years. A fundamental issue in understanding the ontogeny of brain function is how resting-state (intrinsic) functional networks emerge and relate to stimulus-elicited functional connectivity. Here, we posit and test the long-term phasic molding hypothesis that resting-state network development is influenced by recurring stimulus-elicited connectivity through prospective examination of the developing human amygdala-cortical functional connections. Our results provide critical insight into how early environmental events sculpt functional network architecture across development and highlight childhood as a potential developmental period of heightened malleability for the amygdala-medial prefrontal cortex circuit. These findings have implications for how both positive and adverse experiences influence the developing brain and motivate future investigations of whether this molding mechanism reflects a general phenomenon of brain development. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/364772-14$15.00/0.

Stimulus-Elicited Connectivity Influences Resting-State Connectivity Years Later in Human Development: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Gee, Dylan Grace; Goff, Bonnie; Flannery, Jessica; Telzer, Eva; Humphreys, Kathryn Leigh; Lumian, Daniel Stephen; Fareri, Dominic Stephen; Caldera, Christina; Tottenham, Nim

2016-01-01

Although the functional architecture of the brain is indexed by resting-state connectivity networks, little is currently known about the mechanisms through which these networks assemble into stable mature patterns. The current study posits and tests the long-term phasic molding hypothesis that resting-state networks are gradually shaped by recurring stimulus-elicited connectivity across development by examining how both stimulus-elicited and resting-state functional connections of the human brain emerge over development at the systems level. Using a sequential design following 4- to 18-year-olds over a 2 year period, we examined the predictive associations between stimulus-elicited and resting-state connectivity in amygdala-cortical circuitry as an exemplar case (given this network's protracted development across these ages). Age-related changes in amygdala functional connectivity converged on the same regions of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and inferior frontal gyrus when elicited by emotional stimuli and when measured at rest. Consistent with the long-term phasic molding hypothesis, prospective analyses for both connections showed that the magnitude of an individual's stimulus-elicited connectivity unidirectionally predicted resting-state functional connectivity 2 years later. For the amygdala-mPFC connection, only stimulus-elicited connectivity during childhood and the transition to adolescence shaped future resting-state connectivity, consistent with a sensitive period ending with adolescence for the amygdala-mPFC circuit. Together, these findings suggest that resting-state functional architecture may arise from phasic patterns of functional connectivity elicited by environmental stimuli over the course of development on the order of years. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT A fundamental issue in understanding the ontogeny of brain function is how resting-state (intrinsic) functional networks emerge and relate to stimulus-elicited functional connectivity. Here, we posit and test the long-term phasic molding hypothesis that resting-state network development is influenced by recurring stimulus-elicited connectivity through prospective examination of the developing human amygdala-cortical functional connections. Our results provide critical insight into how early environmental events sculpt functional network architecture across development and highlight childhood as a potential developmental period of heightened malleability for the amygdala-medial prefrontal cortex circuit. These findings have implications for how both positive and adverse experiences influence the developing brain and motivate future investigations of whether this molding mechanism reflects a general phenomenon of brain development. PMID:27122035

Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

PubMed Central

von Ruesten, Anne; Steffen, Annika; Floegel, Anna; van der A, Daphne L.; Masala, Giovanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjaer, Jytte; Palli, Domenico; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Boeing, Heiner

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower. PMID:22102897

An Historical Summary and Prospects for the Future of Spacecraft Batteries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpert, Gerald; Surampudi, S.

1998-01-01

Subjects covered in this report include a historical evolution of batteries in space, evolution and status of nickel-cadmium batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries, present applications, future applications and advanced batteries for future missions.

Large-scale educational telecommunications systems for the US: An analysis of educational needs and technological opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, R. P.; Singh, J. P.; Rothenberg, D.; Robinson, B. E.

1975-01-01

The needs to be served, the subsectors in which the system might be used, the technology employed, and the prospects for future utilization of an educational telecommunications delivery system are described and analyzed. Educational subsectors are analyzed with emphasis on the current status and trends within each subsector. Issues which affect future development, and prospects for future use of media, technology, and large-scale electronic delivery within each subsector are included. Information on technology utilization is presented. Educational telecommunications services are identified and grouped into categories: public television and radio, instructional television, computer aided instruction, computer resource sharing, and information resource sharing. Technology based services, their current utilization, and factors which affect future development are stressed. The role of communications satellites in providing these services is discussed. Efforts to analyze and estimate future utilization of large-scale educational telecommunications are summarized. Factors which affect future utilization are identified. Conclusions are presented.

Childhood symptoms of inattention-hyperactivity predict cannabis use in first episode psychosis.

PubMed

Cassidy, Clifford M; Joober, Ridha; King, Suzanne; Malla, Ashok K

2011-11-01

A history of childhood symptoms of inattention-hyperactivity is often reported in first episode psychosis (FEP) as is cannabis use. In the general population childhood ADHD predicts future cannabis use but the relationship has not been tested in FEP. Parents of patients with a first episode of psychosis (n=75) retrospectively assessed their affected child for symptoms of early-life disorders, namely, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), conduct disorder (CD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) using the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL). Assessments were made prospectively of cannabis use over two years following a FEP and of SCID diagnosis of cannabis-use disorder. Childhood hyperactivity-inattention symptoms predicted inability to maintain abstinence from cannabis following treatment (Wald=8.4, p=.004) and lifetime cannabis-use diagnosis (Wald=5.3, p=.022) in a logistic regression controlling for relevant covariates including symptoms of CD and ODD from ages 12 to 18. When the symptom of inattention was considered in place of the hyperactivity-inattention syndrome it predicted cannabis-use diagnosis (Wald=6.4, p=.011) and persistent abstinence from cannabis (Wald=5.3, p=.021). Symptoms of CD and ODD did not predict cannabis use when hyperactivity-inattention symptoms were controlled for. Symptoms of childhood inattention-hyperactivity predict subsequent cannabis use in FEP. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of impulsiveness on binge eating and problem gambling: A prospective study of gender differences in Canadian adults.

PubMed

Farstad, Sarah M; von Ranson, Kristin M; Hodgins, David C; El-Guebaly, Nady; Casey, David M; Schopflocher, Don P

2015-09-01

This study investigated the degree to which facets of impulsiveness predicted future binge eating and problem gambling, 2 theorized forms of behavioral addiction. Participants were 596 women and 406 men from 4 age cohorts randomly recruited from a Canadian province. Participants completed self-report measures of 3 facets of impulsiveness (negative urgency, sensation seeking, lack of persistence), binge-eating frequency, and problem-gambling symptoms. Impulsiveness was assessed at baseline, and assessments of binge eating and problem gambling were followed up after 3 years. Weighted data were analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial and Poisson regression models. We found evidence of transdiagnostic and disorder-specific predictors of binge eating and problem gambling. Negative urgency emerged as a common predictor of binge eating and problem gambling among women and men. There were disorder-specific personality traits identified among men only: High lack-of-persistence scores predicted binge eating and high sensation-seeking scores predicted problem gambling. Among women, younger age predicted binge eating and older age predicted problem gambling. Thus, there are gender differences in facets of impulsiveness that longitudinally predict binge eating and problem gambling, suggesting that treatments for these behaviors should consider gender-specific personality and demographic traits in addition to the common personality trait of negative urgency. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

TRANSITION DISK CHEMISTRY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS WITH ALMA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cleeves, L. Ilsedore; Bergin, Edwin A.; Bethell, Thomas J.

2011-12-10

We explore the chemical structure of a disk that contains a large central gap of R {approx} 45 AU, as is commonly seen in transitional disk systems. In our chemical model of a disk with a cleared inner void, the midplane becomes revealed to the central star so that it is directly irradiated. The midplane material at the truncation radius is permissive to reprocessed optical heating radiation, but opaque to the photodissociating ultraviolet, creating an environment abundant in gas-phase molecules. Thus the disk midplane, which would otherwise for a full disk be dominated by near complete heavy element freeze-out, shouldmore » become observable in molecular emission. If this prediction is correct this has exciting prospects for observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array, as the inner transition region should thus be readily detected and resolved, especially using high-J rotational transitions excited in the high density midplane gas. Therefore, such observations will potentially provide us with a direct probe of the physics and chemistry at this actively evolving interface.« less

Neural response to reward anticipation under risk is nonlinear in probabilities.

PubMed

Hsu, Ming; Krajbich, Ian; Zhao, Chen; Camerer, Colin F

2009-02-18

A widely observed phenomenon in decision making under risk is the apparent overweighting of unlikely events and the underweighting of nearly certain events. This violates standard assumptions in expected utility theory, which requires that expected utility be linear (objective) in probabilities. Models such as prospect theory have relaxed this assumption and introduced the notion of a "probability weighting function," which captures the key properties found in experimental data. This study reports functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data that neural response to expected reward is nonlinear in probabilities. Specifically, we found that activity in the striatum during valuation of monetary gambles are nonlinear in probabilities in the pattern predicted by prospect theory, suggesting that probability distortion is reflected at the level of the reward encoding process. The degree of nonlinearity reflected in individual subjects' decisions is also correlated with striatal activity across subjects. Our results shed light on the neural mechanisms of reward processing, and have implications for future neuroscientific studies of decision making involving extreme tails of the distribution, where probability weighting provides an explanation for commonly observed behavioral anomalies.

Development and validation of a paediatric long-bone fracture classification. A prospective multicentre study in 13 European paediatric trauma centres

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to develop a child-specific classification system for long bone fractures and to examine its reliability and validity on the basis of a prospective multicentre study. Methods Using the sequentially developed classification system, three samples of between 30 and 185 paediatric limb fractures from a pool of 2308 fractures documented in two multicenter studies were analysed in a blinded fashion by eight orthopaedic surgeons, on a total of 5 occasions. Intra- and interobserver reliability and accuracy were calculated. Results The reliability improved with successive simplification of the classification. The final version resulted in an overall interobserver agreement of κ = 0.71 with no significant difference between experienced and less experienced raters. Conclusions In conclusion, the evaluation of the newly proposed classification system resulted in a reliable and routinely applicable system, for which training in its proper use may further improve the reliability. It can be recommended as a useful tool for clinical practice and offers the option for developing treatment recommendations and outcome predictions in the future. PMID:21548939

[Does dark field microscopy according to Enderlein allow for cancer diagnosis? A prospective study].

PubMed

El-Safadi, Samer; Tinneberg, Hans-Rudolf; von Georgi, Richard; Münstedt, Karsten; Brück, Friede

2005-06-01

Dark field microscopy according to Enderlin claims to be able to detect forthcoming or beginning cancer at an early stage through minute abnormalities in the blood. In Germany and the USA, this method is used by an increasing number of physicians and health practitioners (non-medically qualified complementary practitioners), because this easy test seems to give important information about patients' health status. Can dark field microscopy reliably detect cancer? In the course of a prospective study on iridology, blood samples were drawn for dark field microscopy in 110 patients. A health practitioner with several years of training in the field carried out the examination without prior information about the patients. Out of 12 patients with present tumor metastasis as confirmed by radiological methods (CT, MRI or ultra-sound) 3 were correctly identified. Analysis of sensitivity (0.25), specificity (0.64), positive (0.09) and negative (0.85) predictive values revealed unsatisfactory results. Dark field micoroscopy does not seem to reliably detect the presence of cancer. Clinical use of the method can therefore not be recommended until future studies are conducted.

From Affective Experience to Motivated Action: Tracking Reward-Seeking and Punishment-Avoidant Behaviour in Real-Life

PubMed Central

Wichers, Marieke; Kasanova, Zuzana; Bakker, Jindra; Thiery, Evert; Derom, Catherine; Jacobs, Nele; van Os, Jim

2015-01-01

Many of the decisions and actions in everyday life result from implicit learning processes. Important to psychopathology are, for example, implicit reward-seeking and punishment-avoidant learning processes. It is known that when specific actions get associated with a rewarding experience, such as positive emotions, that this will increase the likelihood that an organism will engage in similar actions in the future. Similarly, when actions get associated with punishing experiences, such as negative emotions, this may reduce the likelihood that the organism will engage in similar actions in the future. This study examines whether we can observe these implicit processes prospectively in the flow of daily life. If such processes take place then we expect that current behaviour can be predicted by how similar behaviour was experienced (in terms of positive and negative affect) at previous measurement moments. This was examined in a sample of 621 female individuals that had participated in an Experience Sampling data collection. Measures of affect and behaviour were collected at 10 semi-random moments of the day for 5 consecutive days. It was examined whether affective experience that was paired with certain behaviours (physical activity and social context) at previous measurements modified the likelihood to show similar behaviours at next measurement moments. Analyses were performed both at the level of observations (a time scale with units of ± 90 min) and at day level (a time scale with units of 24 h). As expected, we found that affect indeed moderated the extent to which previous behaviour predicted similar behaviour later in time, at both beep- and day-level. This study showed that it is feasible to track reward-seeking and punishment-avoidant behaviour prospectively in humans in the flow of daily life. This opens up a new toolbox to examine processes determining goal-oriented behaviour in relation to psychopathology in humans. PMID:26087323

Working disability in Norwegian patients with vestibular schwannoma: vertigo predicts future dependence.

PubMed

Breivik, Cathrine Nansdal; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Myrseth, Erling; Finnkirk, Monica Katrine; Lund-Johansen, Morten

2013-12-01

We examined whether reduced hearing, tinnitus, dizziness, and unsteadiness affected the patients' ability to maintain work within a time frame of 2-10 years after diagnosis. A total of 434 consecutive patients were followed at regular intervals. Data on symptoms were scored prospectively and dichotomized by visual analog scales for tinnitus and vertigo. Study design is retrospective. Hearing acuity was scored according to the Gardner-Robertson scale, and unsteadiness was measured on a balance platform. Patients were asked about working status, and scored as receiving governmental compensation for disability. Two hundred six patients were eligible for study. Of these, one died and nine were lost to follow-up. Ninety-seven patients received conservative management, 49 patients recieved gamma knife radiosurgery, and 50 patients were treated by microsurgery. Mean follow-up time was 58.7 months (range, 20-132 months). There was a significant increase in the number of individuals receiving compensation during the study period (P < 0.0001). At baseline, the proportion of pension receivers was within same range as that of the age- and sex-matched Norwegian population (5.61% vs. 6.91%; case-control odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.45-1.49; P = 0.51, not significant). At the final time point, the increase in the number of receivers deviated significantly from the reference population (case-control odds ratio, 3.80; 95% confidence interval 2.71-5.33; P ≤ 0.001). Examining symptoms at first presentation as predictors of future dependence revealed that vertigo and higher mean age were associated with a higher risk (P < 0.001 and P = 0.015, respectively). No other symptoms were predictive of dependence. In a prospectively followed cohort of Norwegian patients with vestibular schwannoma, vestibular complaints were significant predictors for becoming dependant of disability pension. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Affective Experience to Motivated Action: Tracking Reward-Seeking and Punishment-Avoidant Behaviour in Real-Life.

PubMed

Wichers, Marieke; Kasanova, Zuzana; Bakker, Jindra; Thiery, Evert; Derom, Catherine; Jacobs, Nele; van Os, Jim

2015-01-01

Many of the decisions and actions in everyday life result from implicit learning processes. Important to psychopathology are, for example, implicit reward-seeking and punishment-avoidant learning processes. It is known that when specific actions get associated with a rewarding experience, such as positive emotions, that this will increase the likelihood that an organism will engage in similar actions in the future. Similarly, when actions get associated with punishing experiences, such as negative emotions, this may reduce the likelihood that the organism will engage in similar actions in the future. This study examines whether we can observe these implicit processes prospectively in the flow of daily life. If such processes take place then we expect that current behaviour can be predicted by how similar behaviour was experienced (in terms of positive and negative affect) at previous measurement moments. This was examined in a sample of 621 female individuals that had participated in an Experience Sampling data collection. Measures of affect and behaviour were collected at 10 semi-random moments of the day for 5 consecutive days. It was examined whether affective experience that was paired with certain behaviours (physical activity and social context) at previous measurements modified the likelihood to show similar behaviours at next measurement moments. Analyses were performed both at the level of observations (a time scale with units of ± 90 min) and at day level (a time scale with units of 24 h). As expected, we found that affect indeed moderated the extent to which previous behaviour predicted similar behaviour later in time, at both beep- and day-level. This study showed that it is feasible to track reward-seeking and punishment-avoidant behaviour prospectively in humans in the flow of daily life. This opens up a new toolbox to examine processes determining goal-oriented behaviour in relation to psychopathology in humans.

New paradoxes of risky decision making.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Michael H

2008-04-01

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions. The new findings are consistent with and, in several cases, were predicted in advance by simple "configural weight" models in which probability-consequence branches are weighted by a function that depends on branch probability and ranks of consequences on discrete branches. Although they have some similarities to later models called "rank-dependent utility," configural weight models do not satisfy coalescing, the assumption that branches leading to the same consequence can be combined by adding their probabilities. Nor do they satisfy cancellation, the "independence" assumption that branches common to both alternatives can be removed. The transfer of attention exchange model, with parameters estimated from previous data, correctly predicts results with all 11 new paradoxes. Apparently, people do not frame choices as prospects but, instead, as trees with branches.

On the Representational Systems Underlying Prospection: Evidence from the Event-Cueing Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Demblon, Julie

2012-01-01

The ability to think about the future--prospection--is central to many aspects of human cognition and behavior, from planning and decision making, to self-control and the construction of a sense of identity. Yet, the exact nature of the representational systems underlying prospection is not fully understood. Recent findings point to the critical…

Internalizing versus Externalizing Control: Different Ways to Perform a Time-Based Prospective Memory Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Tracy; Loft, Shayne; Humphreys, Michael S.

2014-01-01

"Time-based prospective memory" (PM) refers to performing intended actions at a future time. Participants with time-based PM tasks can be slower to perform ongoing tasks (costs) than participants without PM tasks because internal control is required to maintain the PM intention or to make prospective-timing estimates. However, external…

Social Anxiety and Friendship Quality over Time.

PubMed

Rodebaugh, Thomas L; Lim, Michelle H; Shumaker, Erik A; Levinson, Cheri A; Thompson, Tess

2015-01-01

High social anxiety in adults is associated with self-report of impaired friendship quality, but not necessarily with impairment reported by friends. Further, prospective prediction of social anxiety and friendship quality over time has not been tested among adults. We therefore examined friendship quality and social anxiety prospectively in 126 young adults (67 primary participants and 59 friends, aged 17-22 years); the primary participants were screened to be extreme groups to increase power and relevance to clinical samples (i.e., they were recruited based on having very high or very low social interaction anxiety). The prospective relationships between friendship quality and social anxiety were then tested using an Actor-Partner Interdependence Model. Friendship quality prospectively predicted social anxiety over time within each individual in the friendship, such that higher friendship quality at Time 1 predicted lower social anxiety approximately 6 months later at Time 2. Social anxiety did not predict friendship quality. Although the results support the view that social anxiety and friendship quality have an important causal relationship, the results run counter to the assumption that high social anxiety causes poor friendship quality. Interventions to increase friendship quality merit further consideration.

InAs/GaSb type-II superlattices versus HgCdTe ternary alloys: future prospect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogalski, A.

2017-10-01

InAs/GaSb T2SL photodetectors offer similar performance to HgCdTe at an equivalent cutoff wavelength, but with a sizeable penalty in operating temperature, due to the inherent difference in Shockley-Read lifetimes. It is predicted that since the future IR systems will be based on the room temperature operation of depletion-current limited arrays with pixel densities that are fully consistent with background- and diffraction-limited performance due to the system optics, the material system with long Shockley-Read lifetime will be required. Since T2SLs are much resisted in attempts to improve its SR lifetime, currently the only material that meets this requirement is HgCdTe. Due to less ionic chemical bonding, III-V semiconductors are more robust than their II-VI counterparts. As a result, III-V-based FPAs excel in operability, spatial uniformity, temporal stability, scalability, producibility, and affordability - the so-called "ibility" advantages.

Dynamical Reference Frame: Current Relevance and Future Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Standish, E. M., Jr

2000-01-01

Planetary and lunar ephemerides are no longer used for the determination of inertial space. Instead, the new fundamental reference frame, the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF), is inherently less susceptible to extraneous, non-inertial rotations than a dynamical reference frame determined by the ephemerides would be. Consequently, the ephemerides are now adjusted onto the ICRF, and they are fit to two modern, accurate observational data types: ranging (radar, lunar laser, spacecraft) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) (of spacecraft near planets). The uncertainties remaining in the inner planet ephemerides are on the order of 1 kilometer, both in relative positions between the bodies and in the orientation of the inner system as a whole. The predictive capabilities of the inner planet ephemerides are limited by the uncertainties in the masses of many asteroids. For this reason, future improvements to the ephemerides must await determinations of many asteroid masses. Until then, it will be necessary to constantly update the ephemerides with a continuous supply of observational data.

The cyclical nature of depressed mood and future risk: Depression, rumination, and deficits in emotional clarity in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Rubenstein, Liza M.; Hamilton, Jessica L.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Flynn, Megan; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2015-01-01

Deficits in emotional clarity, the understanding and awareness of one’s own emotions and the ability to label them appropriately, are associated with increased depressive symptoms. Surprisingly, few studies have examined factors associated with reduction in emotional clarity for adolescents, such as depressed mood and ruminative response styles. The present study examined rumination as a potential mediator of the relationship between depressive symptoms and changes in emotional clarity, focusing on sex differences. Participants included 223 adolescents (51.60% female, Mean age = 12.39). Controlling for baseline levels of emotional clarity, initial depressive symptoms predicted decreases in emotional clarity. Further, rumination prospectively mediated the relationship between baseline depressive symptoms and follow-up emotional clarity for girls, but not boys. Findings suggest that depressive symptoms may increase girls’ tendencies to engage in repetitive, negative thinking, which may reduce the ability to understand and label emotions, a potentially cyclical process that confers vulnerability to future depression. PMID:25931160

Quantum anomalous Hall effect in time-reversal-symmetry breaking topological insulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Cui-Zu; Li, Mingda

2016-03-01

The quantum anomalous Hall effect (QAHE), the last member of Hall family, was predicted to exhibit quantized Hall conductivity {σyx}=\\frac{{{e}2}}{h} without any external magnetic field. The QAHE shares a similar physical phenomenon with the integer quantum Hall effect (QHE), whereas its physical origin relies on the intrinsic topological inverted band structure and ferromagnetism. Since the QAHE does not require external energy input in the form of magnetic field, it is believed that this effect has unique potential for applications in future electronic devices with low-power consumption. More recently, the QAHE has been experimentally observed in thin films of the time-reversal symmetry breaking ferromagnetic (FM) topological insulators (TI), Cr- and V- doped (Bi,Sb)2Te3. In this topical review, we review the history of TI based QAHE, the route to the experimental observation of the QAHE in the above two systems, the current status of the research of the QAHE, and finally the prospects for future studies.

A global fit of the MSSM with GAMBIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athron, Peter; Balázs, Csaba; Bringmann, Torsten; Buckley, Andy; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Conrad, Jan; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Dal, Lars A.; Edsjö, Joakim; Farmer, Ben; Jackson, Paul; Krislock, Abram; Kvellestad, Anders; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Martinez, Gregory D.; Putze, Antje; Raklev, Are; Rogan, Christopher; Saavedra, Aldo; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Serra, Nicola; Weniger, Christoph; White, Martin

2017-12-01

We study the seven-dimensional Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM7) with the new GAMBIT software framework, with all parameters defined at the weak scale. Our analysis significantly extends previous weak-scale, phenomenological MSSM fits, by adding more and newer experimental analyses, improving the accuracy and detail of theoretical predictions, including dominant uncertainties from the Standard Model, the Galactic dark matter halo and the quark content of the nucleon, and employing novel and highly-efficient statistical sampling methods to scan the parameter space. We find regions of the MSSM7 that exhibit co-annihilation of neutralinos with charginos, stops and sbottoms, as well as models that undergo resonant annihilation via both light and heavy Higgs funnels. We find high-likelihood models with light charginos, stops and sbottoms that have the potential to be within the future reach of the LHC. Large parts of our preferred parameter regions will also be accessible to the next generation of direct and indirect dark matter searches, making prospects for discovery in the near future rather good.

Prospective testing of Coulomb short-term earthquake forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Wong, K.

2009-12-01

Earthquake induced Coulomb stresses, whether static or dynamic, suddenly change the probability of future earthquakes. Models to estimate stress and the resulting seismicity changes could help to illuminate earthquake physics and guide appropriate precautionary response. But do these models have improved forecasting power compared to empirical statistical models? The best answer lies in prospective testing in which a fully specified model, with no subsequent parameter adjustments, is evaluated against future earthquakes. The Center of Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) facilitates such prospective testing of earthquake forecasts, including several short term forecasts. Formulating Coulomb stress models for formal testing involves several practical problems, mostly shared with other short-term models. First, earthquake probabilities must be calculated after each “perpetrator” earthquake but before the triggered earthquakes, or “victims”. The time interval between a perpetrator and its victims may be very short, as characterized by the Omori law for aftershocks. CSEP evaluates short term models daily, and allows daily updates of the models. However, lots can happen in a day. An alternative is to test and update models on the occurrence of each earthquake over a certain magnitude. To make such updates rapidly enough and to qualify as prospective, earthquake focal mechanisms, slip distributions, stress patterns, and earthquake probabilities would have to be made by computer without human intervention. This scheme would be more appropriate for evaluating scientific ideas, but it may be less useful for practical applications than daily updates. Second, triggered earthquakes are imperfectly recorded following larger events because their seismic waves are buried in the coda of the earlier event. To solve this problem, testing methods need to allow for “censoring” of early aftershock data, and a quantitative model for detection threshold as a function of distance, time, and magnitude is needed. Third, earthquake catalogs contain errors in location and magnitude that may be corrected in later editions. One solution is to test models in “pseudo-prospective” mode (after catalog revision but without model adjustment). Again, appropriate for science but not for response. Hopefully, demonstrations of modeling success will stimulate improvements in earthquake detection.

Aeroallergen sensitization predicts acute chest syndrome in children with sickle cell anaemia.

PubMed

Willen, Shaina M; Rodeghier, Mark; Strunk, Robert C; Bacharier, Leonard B; Rosen, Carol L; Kirkham, Fenella J; DeBaun, Michael R; Cohen, Robyn T

2018-02-01

Asthma is associated with higher rates of acute chest syndrome (ACS) and vaso-occlusive pain episodes among children with sickle cell anaemia (SCA). Aeroallergen sensitization is a risk factor for asthma. We hypothesized that aeroallergen sensitization is associated with an increased incidence of hospitalizations for ACS and pain. Participants in a multicentre, longitudinal cohort study, aged 4-18 years with SCA, underwent skin prick testing to ten aeroallergens. ACS and pain episodes were collected from birth until the end of the follow-up period. The number of positive skin tests were tested for associations with prospective rates of ACS and pain. Multivariable models demonstrated additive effects of having positive skin tests on future rates of ACS (incidence rate ratio (IRR) for each positive test 1·23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1·11-1·36, P < 0·001). Aeroallergen sensitization was not associated with future pain (IRR 1·14, 95%CI 0·97-1·33, P = 0·11). Our study demonstrated that children with SCA and aeroallergen sensitization are at increased risk for future ACS. Future research is needed to determine whether identification of specific sensitizations and allergen avoidance and treatment reduce the risk of ACS for children with SCA. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dream to Predict? REM Dreaming as Prospective Coding

PubMed Central

Llewellyn, Sue

2016-01-01

The dream as prediction seems inherently improbable. The bizarre occurrences in dreams never characterize everyday life. Dreams do not come true! But assuming that bizarreness negates expectations may rest on a misunderstanding of how the predictive brain works. In evolutionary terms, the ability to rapidly predict what sensory input implies—through expectations derived from discerning patterns in associated past experiences—would have enhanced fitness and survival. For example, food and water are essential for survival, associating past experiences (to identify location patterns) predicts where they can be found. Similarly, prediction may enable predator identification from what would have been only a fleeting and ambiguous stimulus—without prior expectations. To confront the many challenges associated with natural settings, visual perception is vital for humans (and most mammals) and often responses must be rapid. Predictive coding during wake may, therefore, be based on unconscious imagery so that visual perception is maintained and appropriate motor actions triggered quickly. Speed may also dictate the form of the imagery. Bizarreness, during REM dreaming, may result from a prospective code fusing phenomena with the same meaning—within a particular context. For example, if the context is possible predation, from the perspective of the prey two different predators can both mean the same (i.e., immediate danger) and require the same response (e.g., flight). Prospective coding may also prune redundancy from memories, to focus the image on the contextually-relevant elements only, thus, rendering the non-relevant phenomena indeterminate—another aspect of bizarreness. In sum, this paper offers an evolutionary take on REM dreaming as a form of prospective coding which identifies a probabilistic pattern in past events. This pattern is portrayed in an unconscious, associative, sensorimotor image which may support cognition in wake through being mobilized as a predictive code. A particular dream illustrates. PMID:26779078

Species Distribution 2.0: An Accurate Time- and Cost-Effective Method of Prospection Using Street View Imagery

PubMed Central

Schwoertzig, Eugénie; Millon, Alexandre

2016-01-01

Species occurrence data provide crucial information for biodiversity studies in the current context of global environmental changes. Such studies often rely on a limited number of occurrence data collected in the field and on pseudo-absences arbitrarily chosen within the study area, which reduces the value of these studies. To overcome this issue, we propose an alternative method of prospection using geo-located street view imagery (SVI). Following a standardised protocol of virtual prospection using both vertical (aerial photographs) and horizontal (SVI) perceptions, we have surveyed 1097 randomly selected cells across Spain (0.1x0.1 degree, i.e. 20% of Spain) for the presence of Arundo donax L. (Poaceae). In total we have detected A. donax in 345 cells, thus substantially expanding beyond the now two-centuries-old field-derived record, which described A. donax only 216 cells. Among the field occurrence cells, 81.1% were confirmed by SVI prospection to be consistent with species presence. In addition, we recorded, by SVI prospection, 752 absences, i.e. cells where A. donax was considered absent. We have also compared the outcomes of climatic niche modeling based on SVI data against those based on field data. Using generalized linear models fitted with bioclimatic predictors, we have found SVI data to provide far more compelling results in terms of niche modeling than does field data as classically used in SDM. This original, cost- and time-effective method provides the means to accurately locate highly visible taxa, reinforce absence data, and predict species distribution without long and expensive in situ prospection. At this time, the majority of available SVI data is restricted to human-disturbed environments that have road networks. However, SVI is becoming increasingly available in natural areas, which means the technique has considerable potential to become an important factor in future biodiversity studies. PMID:26751565

Pre-teen insulin resistance predicts weight gain, impaired fasting glucose, and type 2 diabetes at age 18-19 y: a 10-y prospective study of black and white girls.

PubMed

Morrison, John A; Glueck, Charles J; Horn, Paul S; Schreiber, George B; Wang, Ping

2008-09-01

Identifying early pre-teen predictors of adolescent weight gain and the development of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) at age 18-19 y could provide avenues for prevention. We evaluated possible pre-teen predictors for development of IFG, T2DM, and changes in body mass index at age 18-19 y in black and white girls. In a prospective cohort study, body habitus and fasting insulin and glucose were measured at ages 9-10 and 18-19 y, and multiple 3-d diet records were collected. Factors predicting 10-y change in body mass index and development of IFG and T2DM together were assessed. In multivariate analyses, 10-y change in homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and the age 9-10 y HOMA-IR x percentage of calories from fat interaction were positive predictors of 10-y changes in body mass index. At age 18-19 y, there were 5 incident cases of T2DM, 37 cases of IFG, and 597 noncases. Age 9-10 y IFG and HOMA-IR (or insulin), 10-y change in HOMA-IR (or insulin), and the age 9-10 y insulin x total caloric intake interaction predicted IFG and T2DM at age 18-19 y. Pre-teen IFG, insulin resistance (and insulin), and rapidly increasing insulin resistance during adolescence identifies girls who are at greater risk of future IFG and T2DM. In addition, insulin resistance, interacting with high-fat diets, identifies girls who are at risk of greater weight gain. These findings could open avenues to primary prevention of obesity, IFG, and T2DM in children.

Sleep disturbances predict future sickness absence among individuals with lower back or neck-shoulder pain: a 5-year prospective study.

PubMed

Aili, Katarina; Nyman, Teresia; Hillert, Lena; Svartengren, Magnus

2015-05-01

Musculoskeletal pain is one of the most common causes of sickness absence. Sleep disturbances are often co-occurring with pain, but the relationship between sleep and pain is complex. Little is known about the importance of self-reported sleep, when predicting sickness absence among persons with musculoskeletal pain. This study aims to study the association between self-reported sleep quality and sickness absence 5 years later, among individuals stratified by presence of lower back pain (LBP) and neck and shoulder pain (NSP). The cohort (n = 2286) in this 5-year prospective study (using data from the MUSIC-Norrtälje study) was stratified by self-reported pain into three groups: no LBP or NSP, solely LBP or NSP, and concurrent LBP and NSP. Odds ratios (ORs) for the effect of self-reported sleep disturbances at baseline on sickness absence (> 14 consecutive days), 5 years later, were calculated. Within all three pain strata, individuals reporting the most sleep problems showed a significantly higher OR for all-cause sickness absence, 5 years later. The group with the most pronounced sleep problems within the concurrent LBP and NSP stratum had a significantly higher OR (OR 2.00; CI 1.09-3.67) also for long-term sickness absence (> 90 days) 5 years later, compared to the group with the best sleep. CONCLUSIONS Sleep disturbances predict sickness absence among individuals regardless of co-existing features of LBP and/or NSP. The clinical evaluation of patients should take possible sleep disturbances into account in the planning of treatments. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Utility of an Abbreviated Dizziness Questionnaire to Differentiate between Causes of Vertigo and Guide Appropriate Referral: A Multicenter Prospective Blinded Study

PubMed Central

Roland, Lauren T.; Kallogjeri, Dorina; Sinks, Belinda C.; Rauch, Steven D.; Shepard, Neil T.; White, Judith A.; Goebel, Joel A.

2015-01-01

Objective Test performance of a focused dizziness questionnaire’s ability to discriminate between peripheral and non-peripheral causes of vertigo. Study Design Prospective multi-center Setting Four academic centers with experienced balance specialists Patients New dizzy patients Interventions A 32-question survey was given to participants. Balance specialists were blinded and a diagnosis was established for all participating patients within 6 months. Main outcomes Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate questionnaire performance in predicting final diagnosis and differentiating between peripheral and non-peripheral vertigo. Univariate and multivariable stepwise logistic regression were used to identify questions as significant predictors of the ultimate diagnosis. C-index was used to evaluate performance and discriminative power of the multivariable models. Results 437 patients participated in the study. Eight participants without confirmed diagnoses were excluded and 429 were included in the analysis. Multinomial regression revealed that the model had good overall predictive accuracy of 78.5% for the final diagnosis and 75.5% for differentiating between peripheral and non-peripheral vertigo. Univariate logistic regression identified significant predictors of three main categories of vertigo: peripheral, central and other. Predictors were entered into forward stepwise multivariable logistic regression. The discriminative power of the final models for peripheral, central and other causes were considered good as measured by c-indices of 0.75, 0.7 and 0.78, respectively. Conclusions This multicenter study demonstrates a focused dizziness questionnaire can accurately predict diagnosis for patients with chronic/relapsing dizziness referred to outpatient clinics. Additionally, this survey has significant capability to differentiate peripheral from non-peripheral causes of vertigo and may, in the future, serve as a screening tool for specialty referral. Clinical utility of this questionnaire to guide specialty referral is discussed. PMID:26485598

The role of parental alcohol-specific communication in early adolescents' alcohol use.

PubMed

Van Der Vorst, Haske; Burk, William J; Engels, Rutger C M E

2010-10-01

Many alcohol prevention programs advocate conversations about alcohol between parents and children because verbal communication is the most direct way for parents to express their thoughts, rules, and concerns about alcohol to their children, so called alcohol-specific communication. Nevertheless, research on the effects of alcohol-specific communication has produced inconsistent findings. This study examined the bidirectional links between frequency of alcohol-specific communication and early adolescents' alcohol use, and the moderating effects on these links of gender and experience with alcohol. The longitudinal sample consisted of 428 Dutch early adolescents who were followed over 3 years. Results of structural equation models indicated that more frequent alcohol-specific communication at time two predicted more adolescent alcohol use at time three. Follow-up multiple-group analyses clearly show that prospective links between alcohol-specific communication and adolescent alcohol use were limited to adolescent males reporting the highest levels of drinking. For this group of drinking males, alcohol use predicted less parent-child communication, and more frequency of alcohol-specific communication predicted an increase in drinking. Alcohol-specific communication and adolescent alcohol use were not prospectively linked for males reporting lower levels of alcohol use or for adolescent females. These findings highlight the need for future research that examines both quantitative and qualitative aspects of how parents communicate with their adolescent children about alcohol. Advocation of specific parent-child communication skills meant to reduce youth alcohol use may be somewhat premature until additional studies refine our understanding of how specific parenting strategies are linked to different patterns of adolescent alcohol use. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-efficacy and social networks after treatment for alcohol or drug dependence and major depression: disentangling person and time-level effects.

PubMed

Worley, Matthew J; Trim, Ryan S; Tate, Susan R; Roesch, Scott C; Myers, Mark G; Brown, Sandra A

2014-12-01

Proximal personal and environmental factors typically predict outcomes of treatment for alcohol or drug dependence (AODD), but longitudinal treatment studies have rarely examined these factors in adults with co-occurring psychiatric disorders. In adults with AODD and major depression, the aims of this study were to: (a) disaggregate person-and time-level components of network substance use and self-efficacy, (b) examine their prospective effects on posttreatment alcohol/drug use, and (c) examine whether residential environment moderated relations between these proximal factors and substance use outcomes. Veterans (N = 201) enrolled in a trial of group psychotherapy for AODD and independent MDD completed assessments every 3 months during 1 year of posttreatment follow-up. Outcome variables were percent days drinking (PDD) and using drugs (PDDRG). Proximal variables included abstinence self-efficacy and social network drinking and drug use. Self-efficacy and network substance use at the person-level prospectively predicted PDD (ps < .05) and PDDRG (ps < .05). Within-person, time-level effects of social networks predicted future PDD (ps < .05) but not PDDRG. Controlled environments moderated person-level social network effects (ps < .05), such that greater time in controlled settings attenuated the association between a heavier drinking/using network and posttreatment drinking and drug use. Both individual differences and time-specific fluctuations in proximal targets of psychosocial interventions are related to posttreatment substance use in adults with co-occurring AODD and MDD. More structured environmental settings appear to alleviate risk associated with social network substance use, and may be especially advised for those who have greater difficulty altering social networks during outpatient treatment.

Risk factors for the onset and persistence of neck pain in undergraduate students: 1-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kanchanomai, Siriluck; Janwantanakul, Prawit; Pensri, Praneet; Jiamjarasrangsi, Wiroj

2011-07-15

Although neck pain is common in young adulthood, studies on predictive factors for its onset and persistence are scarce. It is therefore important to identify possible risk factors among young adults so as to prevent the development of neck pain later in life. A prospective study was carried out in healthy undergraduate students. At baseline, a self-administered questionnaire and standardized physical examination were used to collect data on biopsychosocial factors. At 3, 6, 9, and 12 months thereafter, follow-up data were collected on the incidence of neck pain. Those who reported neck pain on ≥ 2 consecutive follow-ups were categorized as having persistent neck pain. Two regression models were built to analyze risk factors for the onset and persistence of neck pain. Among the recruited sample of 684 students, 46% reported the onset of neck pain between baseline and 1-year follow-up, of whom 33% reported persistent neck pain. The onset of neck pain was associated with computer screen position not being level with the eyes and mouse position being self-rated as suitable. Factors that predicted persistence of neck pain were position of the keyboard being too high, use of computer for entertainment < 70% of total computer usage time, and students being in the second year of their studies. Neck pain is quite common among undergraduate students. This study found very few proposed risk factors that predicted onset and persistence of neck pain. The future health of undergraduate students deserves consideration. However, there is still much uncertainty about factors leading to neck pain and more research is needed on this topic.

Risk factors for the onset and persistence of neck pain in undergraduate students: 1-year prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although neck pain is common in young adulthood, studies on predictive factors for its onset and persistence are scarce. It is therefore important to identify possible risk factors among young adults so as to prevent the development of neck pain later in life. Methods A prospective study was carried out in healthy undergraduate students. At baseline, a self-administered questionnaire and standardized physical examination were used to collect data on biopsychosocial factors. At 3, 6, 9, and 12 months thereafter, follow-up data were collected on the incidence of neck pain. Those who reported neck pain on ≥ 2 consecutive follow-ups were categorized as having persistent neck pain. Two regression models were built to analyze risk factors for the onset and persistence of neck pain. Results Among the recruited sample of 684 students, 46% reported the onset of neck pain between baseline and 1-year follow-up, of whom 33% reported persistent neck pain. The onset of neck pain was associated with computer screen position not being level with the eyes and mouse position being self-rated as suitable. Factors that predicted persistence of neck pain were position of the keyboard being too high, use of computer for entertainment < 70% of total computer usage time, and students being in the second year of their studies. Conclusion Neck pain is quite common among undergraduate students. This study found very few proposed risk factors that predicted onset and persistence of neck pain. The future health of undergraduate students deserves consideration. However, there is still much uncertainty about factors leading to neck pain and more research is needed on this topic. PMID:21756362

Predictors of Final Specialty Choice by Internal Medicine Residents

PubMed Central

Diehl, Andrew K; Kumar, Vineeta; Gateley, Ann; Appleby, Jane L; O'Keefe, Mary E

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Sociodemographic factors and personality attributes predict career decisions in medical students. Determinants of internal medicine residents' specialty choices have received little attention. OBJECTIVE To identify factors that predict the clinical practice of residents following their training. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS Two hundred and four categorical residents from 2 university-based residency programs. MEASUREMENTS Sociodemographic and personality inventories performed during residency, and actual careers 4 to 9 years later. RESULTS International medical school graduates (IMGs) were less likely to practice general medicine than U.S. graduates (33.3% vs 70.6%, P<.001). Residents with higher loan indebtedness more often became generalists (P = .001). A corresponding trend favoring general internal medicine was observed among those who perceived General Internists to have lower potential incomes (69.0% vs 53.3%, P = .08). There was a trend for generalists to have lower scores on scales measuring authoritarianism, negative orientation to psychological problems, and Machiavellianism (0.05

Stiffness control of balance during dual task and prospective falls in older adults: the MOBILIZE Boston Study.

PubMed

Kang, Hyun Gu; Quach, Lien; Li, Wenjun; Lipsitz, Lewis A

2013-09-01

Outdoor fallers differ from indoor fallers substantially in demographics, lifestyle, health condition and physical function. Biomechanical predictors of outdoor falls have not been well characterized. Current validated measures of postural deficits, which describe only the overall postural behavior, are predictive of indoor falls but not outdoor falls. We hypothesized that a model-based description of postural muscle tone and reflexes, particularly during dual tasking, would predict outdoor falls. We tested whether postural stiffness and damping from an inverted pendulum model were predictive of future indoor and outdoor falls among older adults from the MOBILIZE Boston Study. The center of pressure data during standing were obtained from 717 participants aged 77.9±5.3 years. Participants stood barefoot with eyes open for 30s per trial, in two sets of five standing trials. One set included a serial subtractions task. Postural stiffness and damping values were determined from the postural sway data. After the postural measurements, falls were monitored prospectively using a monthly mail-in calendar over 6-36 months. Associations of postural measures with fall rates were determined using negative binomial regressions. After covariate adjustments, postural stiffness (p=0.02-0.05) and damping (p=0.007-0.1) were associated with lower outdoor falls risk, but not with indoor falls. Results were invariant by direction (anteroposterior versus mediolateral) or by condition (quiet standing versus dual task). Outdoor fall risk may be tied to postural control more so than indoor falls. Dual tasking is likely related to fall risk among older and sicker older adults, but not those relatively healthy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stiffness Control of Balance during Dual Task and Prospective Falls in Older Adults: The MOBILIZE Boston Study

PubMed Central

Kang, Hyun Gu; Quach, Lien; Li, Wenjun; Lipsitz, Lewis A.

2013-01-01

Outdoor fallers differ from indoor fallers substantially in demographics, lifestyle, health condition and physical function. Biomechanical predictors of outdoor falls have not been well characterized. Current validated measures of postural deficits, which describe only the overall postural behavior, are predictive of indoor falls but not outdoor falls. We hypothesized that a model-based description of postural muscle tone and reflexes, particularly during dual tasking, would predict outdoor falls. We tested whether postural stiffness and damping from an inverted pendulum model were predictive of future indoor and outdoor falls among older adults from the MOBILIZE Boston Study. The center of pressure data during standing were obtained from 717 participants aged 77.9±5.3 years. Participants stood barefoot with eyes open for 30 seconds per trial, in two sets of five standing trials. One set included a serial subtractions task. Postural stiffness and damping values were determined from the postural sway data. After the postural measurements, falls were monitored prospectively using a monthly mail-in calendar over 6-36 months. Associations of postural measures with fall rates were determined using negative binomial regressions. After covariate adjustments, postural stiffness (p=0.02-0.05) and damping (p=0.007-0.1) were associated with lower outdoor falls risk, but not with indoor falls. Results were invariant by direction (anteroposterior versus mediolateral) or by condition (quiet standing versus dual task). Outdoor fall risk may be tied to postural control more so than indoor falls. Dual tasking is likely related to fall risk among older and sicker older adults, but not those relatively healthy. PMID:23623606

Utility of an Abbreviated Dizziness Questionnaire to Differentiate Between Causes of Vertigo and Guide Appropriate Referral: A Multicenter Prospective Blinded Study.

PubMed

Roland, Lauren T; Kallogjeri, Dorina; Sinks, Belinda C; Rauch, Steven D; Shepard, Neil T; White, Judith A; Goebel, Joel A

2015-12-01

Test performance of a focused dizziness questionnaire's ability to discriminate between peripheral and nonperipheral causes of vertigo. Prospective multicenter. Four academic centers with experienced balance specialists. New dizzy patients. A 32-question survey was given to participants. Balance specialists were blinded and a diagnosis was established for all participating patients within 6 months. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate questionnaire performance in predicting final diagnosis and differentiating between peripheral and nonperipheral vertigo. Univariate and multivariable stepwise logistic regression were used to identify questions as significant predictors of the ultimate diagnosis. C-index was used to evaluate performance and discriminative power of the multivariable models. In total, 437 patients participated in the study. Eight participants without confirmed diagnoses were excluded and 429 were included in the analysis. Multinomial regression revealed that the model had good overall predictive accuracy of 78.5% for the final diagnosis and 75.5% for differentiating between peripheral and nonperipheral vertigo. Univariate logistic regression identified significant predictors of three main categories of vertigo: peripheral, central, and other. Predictors were entered into forward stepwise multivariable logistic regression. The discriminative power of the final models for peripheral, central, and other causes was considered good as measured by c-indices of 0.75, 0.7, and 0.78, respectively. This multicenter study demonstrates a focused dizziness questionnaire can accurately predict diagnosis for patients with chronic/relapsing dizziness referred to outpatient clinics. Additionally, this survey has significant capability to differentiate peripheral from nonperipheral causes of vertigo and may, in the future, serve as a screening tool for specialty referral. Clinical utility of this questionnaire to guide specialty referral is discussed.

Usefulness of Beta2-Microglobulin as a Predictor of All-Cause and Nonculprit Lesion-Related Cardiovascular Events in Acute Coronary Syndromes (from the PROSPECT Study).

PubMed

Möckel, Martin; Muller, Reinhold; Searle, Julia; Slagman, Anna; De Bruyne, Bernard; Serruys, Patrick; Weisz, Giora; Xu, Ke; Holert, Fabian; Müller, Christian; Maehara, Akiko; Stone, Gregg W

2015-10-01

In the Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree (PROSPECT) study, plaque burden, plaque composition, and minimal luminal area were associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events arising from untreated atherosclerotic lesions (vulnerable plaques) in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We sought to evaluate the utility of biomarker profiling and clinical risk factors to predict 3-year all-cause and nonculprit lesion-related major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). Of 697 patients who underwent successful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ACS, an array of 28 baseline biomarkers was analyzed. Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Beta2-microglobulin displayed the strongest predictive power of all variables assessed for all-cause and nonculprit lesion-related MACE. In a classification and regression tree analysis, patients with beta2-microglobulin >1.92 mg/L had an estimated 28.7% 3-year incidence of all-cause MACE; C-peptide <1.32 ng/ml was associated with a further increase in MACE to 51.2%. In a classification and regression tree analysis for untreated nonculprit lesion-related MACE, beta2-microglobulin >1.92 mg/L identified a cohort with a 3-year rate of 18.5%, and C-peptide <2.22 ng/ml was associated with a further increase to 25.5%. By multivariable analysis, beta2-microglobulin was the strongest predictor of all-cause and nonculprit MACE during follow-up. High-density lipoprotein (HDL), transferrin, and history of angina pectoris were also independent predictors of all-cause MACE, and HDL was an independent predictor of nonculprit MACE. In conclusion, in the PROSPECT study, beta2-microglobulin strongly predicted all-cause and nonculprit lesion-related MACE within 3 years after PCI in ACS. C-peptide and HDL provided further risk stratification to identify angiographically mild nonculprit lesions prone to future MACE. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Informed Choice in Direct-to-Consumer Genetic Testing for Alzheimer and Other Diseases: Lessons from Two Cases

PubMed Central

Messner, Donna A.

2011-01-01

Health-related direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing has been a controversial practice. Especially problematic is predictive testing for Alzheimer disease (AD), since the disease is incurable, prevention is inconclusive, and testing does not definitively predict an individual’s future disease status. In this paper, I examine two contrasting cases of subjects who learn through genetic testing that they have an elevated risk of developing AD later in life. In these cases, the subject’s emotional response to the result is related to how well prepared she was for the real-life personal implications of possible test results. Analysis leads to the conclusion that when groups of health-related genetic tests are offered as packages by DTC companies, informed consumer choice is rendered impossible. Moreover, I argue, this marketing approach contravenes U.S. Federal Trade Commission policies for non-deceptive commercial communications. I conclude by suggesting ways to improve the prospects for informed consumer choice in DTC testing. PMID:21603253

Friends, friendlessness, and the social consequences of gaining a theory of mind.

PubMed

Fink, Elian; Begeer, Sander; Peterson, Candida C; Slaughter, Virginia; de Rosnay, Marc

2015-03-01

Fink, Begeer, Peterson, Slaughter, and de Rosnay (2014) conducted a prospective longitudinal study showing that theory-of-mind (ToM) development at school entry (mean age 5.61 years) significantly predicted friendlessness both concurrently and 2 years later. Friendlessness (defined as lacking any friendship that is mutually reciprocated) is conceptually and empirically distinct from group popularity and independently predicts adverse mental health outcomes throughout life. Here, we respond to the thoughtful commentaries by Wellman (Brit. J. Dev. Psychol, 2015; 33, 24-26), Mizokawa and Koyasu (Brit. J. Dev. Psychol, 2015; 33, 21-23), and Lerner and Lillard (Brit. J. Dev. Psychol, 2015; 33, 18-20) with a focus on three key issues, namely (a) the definition and measurement of friendship, (b) the measurement of advanced ToM development beyond the preschool years, and (c) the exciting future potential for ToM-based training and intervention studies to combat chronic friendlessness. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

A new genome-mining tool redefines the lasso peptide biosynthetic landscape

PubMed Central

Tietz, Jonathan I.; Schwalen, Christopher J.; Patel, Parth S.; Maxson, Tucker; Blair, Patricia M.; Tai, Hua-Chia; Zakai, Uzma I.; Mitchell, Douglas A.

2016-01-01

Ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptide (RiPP) natural products are attractive for genome-driven discovery and re-engineering, but limitations in bioinformatic methods and exponentially increasing genomic data make large-scale mining difficult. We report RODEO (Rapid ORF Description and Evaluation Online), which combines hidden Markov model-based analysis, heuristic scoring, and machine learning to identify biosynthetic gene clusters and predict RiPP precursor peptides. We initially focused on lasso peptides, which display intriguing physiochemical properties and bioactivities, but their hypervariability renders them challenging prospects for automated mining. Our approach yielded the most comprehensive mapping of lasso peptide space, revealing >1,300 compounds. We characterized the structures and bioactivities of six lasso peptides, prioritized based on predicted structural novelty, including an unprecedented handcuff-like topology and another with a citrulline modification exceptionally rare among bacteria. These combined insights significantly expand the knowledge of lasso peptides, and more broadly, provide a framework for future genome-mining efforts. PMID:28244986

Combat Wound Initiative program.

PubMed

Stojadinovic, Alexander; Elster, Eric; Potter, Benjamin K; Davis, Thomas A; Tadaki, Doug K; Brown, Trevor S; Ahlers, Stephen; Attinger, Christopher E; Andersen, Romney C; Burris, David; Centeno, Jose; Champion, Hunter; Crumbley, David R; Denobile, John; Duga, Michael; Dunne, James R; Eberhardt, John; Ennis, William J; Forsberg, Jonathan A; Hawksworth, Jason; Helling, Thomas S; Lazarus, Gerald S; Milner, Stephen M; Mullick, Florabel G; Owner, Christopher R; Pasquina, Paul F; Patel, Chirag R; Peoples, George E; Nissan, Aviram; Ring, Michael; Sandberg, Glenn D; Schaden, Wolfgang; Schultz, Gregory S; Scofield, Tom; Shawen, Scott B; Sheppard, Forest R; Stannard, James P; Weina, Peter J; Zenilman, Jonathan M

2010-07-01

The Combat Wound Initiative (CWI) program is a collaborative, multidisciplinary, and interservice public-private partnership that provides personalized, state-of-the-art, and complex wound care via targeted clinical and translational research. The CWI uses a bench-to-bedside approach to translational research, including the rapid development of a human extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) study in complex wounds after establishing the potential efficacy, biologic mechanisms, and safety of this treatment modality in a murine model. Additional clinical trials include the prospective use of clinical data, serum and wound biomarkers, and wound gene expression profiles to predict wound healing/failure and additional clinical patient outcomes following combat-related trauma. These clinical research data are analyzed using machine-based learning algorithms to develop predictive treatment models to guide clinical decision-making. Future CWI directions include additional clinical trials and study centers and the refinement and deployment of our genetically driven, personalized medicine initiative to provide patient-specific care across multiple medical disciplines, with an emphasis on combat casualty care.

New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birnbaum, Michael H.

2008-01-01

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

Prospective Prediction of Women's Sexual Victimization by Intimate and Nonintimate Male Perpetrators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol; Livingston, Jennifer A.

2007-01-01

Although behavioral risk factors such as substance use have been hypothesized to increase women's vulnerability to sexual victimization, prospective studies provide mixed empirical support. In the current prospective study, the authors considered substance use, sexual activity, and sexual assertiveness as predictors of sexual victimization from…

A Feedback-Controlled Mandibular Positioner Identifies Individuals With Sleep Apnea Who Will Respond to Oral Appliance Therapy.

PubMed

Remmers, John E; Topor, Zbigniew; Grosse, Joshua; Vranjes, Nikola; Mosca, Erin V; Brant, Rollin; Bruehlmann, Sabina; Charkhandeh, Shouresh; Zareian Jahromi, Seyed Abdolali

2017-07-15

Mandibular protruding oral appliances represent a potentially important therapy for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). However, their clinical utility is limited by a less-than-ideal efficacy rate and uncertainty regarding an efficacious mandibular position, pointing to the need for a tool to assist in delivery of the therapy. The current study assesses the ability to prospectively identify therapeutic responders and determine an efficacious mandibular position. Individuals (n = 202) with OSA participated in a blinded, 2-part investigation. A system for identifying therapeutic responders was developed in part 1 (n = 149); the predictive accuracy of this system was prospectively evaluated on a new population in part 2 (n = 53). Each participant underwent a 2-night, in-home feedback-controlled mandibular positioner (FCMP) test, followed by treatment with a custom oral appliance and an outcome study with the oral appliance in place. A machine learning classification system was trained to predict therapeutic outcome on data obtained from FCMP studies on part 1 participants. The accuracy of this trained system was then evaluated on part 2 participants by examining the agreement between prospectively predicted outcome and observed outcome. A predicted efficacious mandibular position was derived from each FCMP study. Predictive accuracy was as follows: sensitivity 85%; specificity 93%; positive predictive value 97%; and negative predictive value 72%. Of participants correctly predicted to respond to therapy, the predicted mandibular protrusive position proved efficacious in 86% of cases. An unattended, in-home FCMP test prospectively identifies individuals with OSA who will respond to oral appliance therapy and provides an efficacious mandibular position. The trial that this study reports on is registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov, ID NCT03011762, study name: Feasibility and Predictive Accuracy of an In-Home Computer Controlled Mandibular Positioner in Identifying Favourable Candidates for Oral Appliance Therapy. © 2017 American Academy of Sleep Medicine

A process-model based approach to prospective memory impairment in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Kliegel, Matthias; Altgassen, Mareike; Hering, Alexandra; Rose, Nathan S

2011-07-01

The present review discusses the current state of research on the clinical neuropsychology of prospective memory in Parkinson's disease. To do so the paper is divided in two sections. In the first section, we briefly outline key features of the (partly implicit) rationale underlying the available literature on the clinical neuropsychology of prospective memory. Here, we present a conceptual model that guides our approach to the clinical neuropsychology of prospective memory in general and to the effects of Parkinson's disease on prospective memory in particular. In the second section, we use this model to guide our review of the available literature and suggest some open issues and future directions motivated by previous findings and the proposed conceptual model. The review suggests that certain phases of the prospective memory process (intention formation und initiation) are particularly impaired by Parkinson's disease. In addition, it is argued that prospective memory may be preserved when tasks involve specific features (e.g., focal cues) that reduce the need for strategic monitoring processes. In terms of suggestions for future directions, it is noted that intervention studies are needed which target the specific phases of the prospective memory process that are impaired in Parkinson's disease, such as planning interventions. Moreover, it is proposed that prospective memory deficits in Parkinson's disease should be explored in the context of a general impairment in the ability to form an intention and plan or coordinate an appropriate series of actions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weighted bi-prediction for light field image coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conti, Caroline; Nunes, Paulo; Ducla Soares, Luís.

2017-09-01

Light field imaging based on a single-tier camera equipped with a microlens array - also known as integral, holoscopic, and plenoptic imaging - has currently risen up as a practical and prospective approach for future visual applications and services. However, successfully deploying actual light field imaging applications and services will require developing adequate coding solutions to efficiently handle the massive amount of data involved in these systems. In this context, self-similarity compensated prediction is a non-local spatial prediction scheme based on block matching that has been shown to achieve high efficiency for light field image coding based on the High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard. As previously shown by the authors, this is possible by simply averaging two predictor blocks that are jointly estimated from a causal search window in the current frame itself, referred to as self-similarity bi-prediction. However, theoretical analyses for motion compensated bi-prediction have suggested that it is still possible to achieve further rate-distortion performance improvements by adaptively estimating the weighting coefficients of the two predictor blocks. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive study of the rate-distortion performance for HEVC-based light field image coding when using different sets of weighting coefficients for self-similarity bi-prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that it is possible to extend the previous theoretical conclusions to light field image coding and show that the proposed adaptive weighting coefficient selection leads to up to 5 % of bit savings compared to the previous self-similarity bi-prediction scheme.

Testing the predictive value of peripheral gene expression for nonremission following citalopram treatment for major depression.

PubMed

Guilloux, Jean-Philippe; Bassi, Sabrina; Ding, Ying; Walsh, Chris; Turecki, Gustavo; Tseng, George; Cyranowski, Jill M; Sibille, Etienne

2015-02-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) in general, and anxious-depression in particular, are characterized by poor rates of remission with first-line treatments, contributing to the chronic illness burden suffered by many patients. Prospective research is needed to identify the biomarkers predicting nonremission prior to treatment initiation. We collected blood samples from a discovery cohort of 34 adult MDD patients with co-occurring anxiety and 33 matched, nondepressed controls at baseline and after 12 weeks (of citalopram plus psychotherapy treatment for the depressed cohort). Samples were processed on gene arrays and group differences in gene expression were investigated. Exploratory analyses suggest that at pretreatment baseline, nonremitting patients differ from controls with gene function and transcription factor analyses potentially related to elevated inflammation and immune activation. In a second phase, we applied an unbiased machine learning prediction model and corrected for model-selection bias. Results show that baseline gene expression predicted nonremission with 79.4% corrected accuracy with a 13-gene model. The same gene-only model predicted nonremission after 8 weeks of citalopram treatment with 76% corrected accuracy in an independent validation cohort of 63 MDD patients treated with citalopram at another institution. Together, these results demonstrate the potential, but also the limitations, of baseline peripheral blood-based gene expression to predict nonremission after citalopram treatment. These results not only support their use in future prediction tools but also suggest that increased accuracy may be obtained with the inclusion of additional predictors (eg, genetics and clinical scales).

Predicting Dyslexia in a Transparent Orthography from Grade 1 Literacy Skills: A Prospective Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pinto, Giuliana; Accorti Gamannossi, Beatrice

2016-01-01

We conducted this prospective cohort study to explore the predictability of dyslexia from 1st-grade literacy skills in Italian students. We followed 407 Italian students in primary school from the 1st through the 3rd grades. Students were diagnosed with dyslexia in the 3rd grade. We retrospectively tested participants' 1st-grade performance in…

Prediction of Participation and Sensory Modulation of Late Preterm Infants at 12 Months: A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bart, O.; Shayevits, S.; Gabis, L. V.; Morag, I.

2011-01-01

The aim of the study was to prospectively assess the differences in participation and sensory modulation between late preterm infants (LPI) and term babies, and to predict it by LPI characteristics. The study population includes 124 late preterm infants at gestational age between 34 and 35 6/7 weeks who were born at the same medical center. The…

The cooking task: making a meal of executive functions

PubMed Central

Doherty, T. A.; Barker, L. A.; Denniss, R.; Jalil, A.; Beer, M. D.

2015-01-01

Current standardized neuropsychological tests may fail to accurately capture real-world executive deficits. We developed a computer-based Cooking Task (CT) assessment of executive functions and trialed the measure with a normative group before use with a head-injured population. Forty-six participants completed the computerized CT and subtests from standardized neuropsychological tasks, including the Tower and Sorting Tests of executive function from the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) and the Cambridge prospective memory test (CAMPROMPT), in order to examine whether standardized executive function tasks, predicted performance on measurement indices from the CT. Findings showed that verbal comprehension, rule detection and prospective memory contributed to measures of prospective planning accuracy and strategy implementation of the CT. Results also showed that functions necessary for cooking efficacy differ as an effect of task demands (difficulty levels). Performance on rule detection, strategy implementation and flexible thinking executive function measures contributed to accuracy on the CT. These findings raise questions about the functions captured by present standardized tasks particularly at varying levels of difficulty and during dual-task performance. Our preliminary findings also indicate that CT measures can effectively distinguish between executive function and Full Scale IQ abilities. Results of the present study indicate that the CT shows promise as an ecologically valid measure of executive function for future use with a head-injured population and indexes selective executive function’s captured by standardized tests. PMID:25717294

Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE)-a new effective NWP-based tool in designing the global observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marseille, Gert-Jan; Stoffelen, Ad; Barkmeijer, Jan

2008-03-01

Lacking an established methodology to test the potential impact of prospective extensions to the global observing system (GOS) in real atmospheric cases we developed such a method, called Sensitivity Observing System Experiment (SOSE). For example, since the GOS is non uniform it is of interest to investigate the benefit of complementary observing systems filling its gaps. In a SOSE adjoint sensitivity structures are used to define a pseudo true atmospheric state for the simulation of the prospective observing system. Next, the synthetic observations are used together with real observations from the existing GOS in a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model to assess the potential added value of the new observing system. Unlike full observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), SOSE can be applied to real extreme events that were badly forecast operationally and only requires the simulation of the new instrument. As such SOSE is an effective tool, for example, to define observation requirements for extensions to the GOS. These observation requirements may serve as input for the design of an operational network of prospective observing systems. In a companion paper we use SOSE to simulate potential future space borne Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) scenarios and assess their capability to sample meteorologically sensitive areas not well captured by the current GOS, in particular over the Northern Hemisphere oceans.

The cooking task: making a meal of executive functions.

PubMed

Doherty, T A; Barker, L A; Denniss, R; Jalil, A; Beer, M D

2015-01-01

Current standardized neuropsychological tests may fail to accurately capture real-world executive deficits. We developed a computer-based Cooking Task (CT) assessment of executive functions and trialed the measure with a normative group before use with a head-injured population. Forty-six participants completed the computerized CT and subtests from standardized neuropsychological tasks, including the Tower and Sorting Tests of executive function from the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) and the Cambridge prospective memory test (CAMPROMPT), in order to examine whether standardized executive function tasks, predicted performance on measurement indices from the CT. Findings showed that verbal comprehension, rule detection and prospective memory contributed to measures of prospective planning accuracy and strategy implementation of the CT. Results also showed that functions necessary for cooking efficacy differ as an effect of task demands (difficulty levels). Performance on rule detection, strategy implementation and flexible thinking executive function measures contributed to accuracy on the CT. These findings raise questions about the functions captured by present standardized tasks particularly at varying levels of difficulty and during dual-task performance. Our preliminary findings also indicate that CT measures can effectively distinguish between executive function and Full Scale IQ abilities. Results of the present study indicate that the CT shows promise as an ecologically valid measure of executive function for future use with a head-injured population and indexes selective executive function's captured by standardized tests.

Prospective Teachers' Perspectives on Mathematics Teaching and Learning: Lens for Interpreting Experiences in a Standards-Based Mathematics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chamberlin, Michelle T.

2013-01-01

In a mathematics course for prospective elementary teachers, we strove to model standards-based pedagogy. However, an end-of-class reflection revealed the prospective teachers were considering incorporating standards-based strategies in their future classrooms in ways different from our intent. Thus, we drew upon the framework presented by Simon,…

Does Involuntary Mental Time Travel Make Sense in Prospective Teachers' Feelings and Behaviors during Lessons?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay; Yesilbursa, Amanda

2013-01-01

This study examined the effects of involuntary mental time travel into the past and into the future on prospective teachers' feelings and behaviors during the period of a class hour. A total of 110 prospective teachers participated voluntarily in the study. The results of the present study showed that (a) the involuntary mental time travel into…

Coding of Stimuli by Animals: Retrospection, Prospection, Episodic Memory and Future Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zentall, Thomas R.

2010-01-01

When animals code stimuli for later retrieval they can either code them in terms of the stimulus presented (as a retrospective memory) or in terms of the response or outcome anticipated (as a prospective memory). Although retrospective memory is typically assumed (as in the form of a memory trace), evidence of prospective coding has been found…

Neonatal intensive care unit: predictive models for length of stay.

PubMed

Bender, G J; Koestler, D; Ombao, H; McCourt, M; Alskinis, B; Rubin, L P; Padbury, J F

2013-02-01

Hospital length of stay (LOS) is important to administrators and families of neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). A prediction model for NICU LOS was developed using predictors birth weight, gestational age and two severity of illness tools, the score for neonatal acute physiology, perinatal extension (SNAPPE) and the morbidity assessment index for newborns (MAIN). Consecutive admissions (n=293) to a New England regional level III NICU were retrospectively collected. Multiple predictive models were compared for complexity and goodness-of-fit, coefficient of determination (R (2)) and predictive error. The optimal model was validated prospectively with consecutive admissions (n=615). Observed and expected LOS was compared. The MAIN models had best Akaike's information criterion, highest R (2) (0.786) and lowest predictive error. The best SNAPPE model underestimated LOS, with substantial variability, yet was fairly well calibrated by birthweight category. LOS was longer in the prospective cohort than the retrospective cohort, without differences in birth weight, gestational age, MAIN or SNAPPE. LOS prediction is improved by accounting for severity of illness in the first week of life, beyond factors known at birth. Prospective validation of both MAIN and SNAPPE models is warranted.

Review and Future Research Directions about Major Monitoring Method of Soil Erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, Yue; Bai, Xiaoyong; Tian, Yichao; Luo, Guangjie

2017-05-01

Soil erosion is a highly serious ecological problem that occurs worldwide. Hence,scientific methods for accurate monitoring are needed to obtain soil erosion data. At present,numerous methods on soil erosion monitoring are being used internationally. In this paper, wepresent a systematic classification of these methods based on the date of establishment andtype of approach. This classification comprises five categories: runoff plot method, erosion pinmethod, radionuclide tracer method, model estimation, and 3S technology combined method.The backgrounds of their establishment are briefly introduced, the history of their developmentis reviewed, and the conditions for their application are enumerated. Their respectiveadvantages and disadvantages are compared and analysed, and future prospects regarding theirdevelopment are discussed. We conclude that the methods of soil erosion monitoring in the past 100 years of their development constantly considered the needs of the time. According to the progress of soil erosion monitoring technology throughout its history, we predict that the future trend in this field would move toward the development of quantitative, precise, and composite methods. This report serves as a valuable reference for scientific and technological workers globally, especially those engaged in soil erosion research.

Prospects for discovering pulsars in future continuum surveys using variance imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, S.; Johnston, S.; Hobbs, G.

2017-12-01

In our previous paper, we developed a formalism for computing variance images from standard, interferometric radio images containing time and frequency information. Variance imaging with future radio continuum surveys allows us to identify radio pulsars and serves as a complement to conventional pulsar searches that are most sensitive to strictly periodic signals. Here, we carry out simulations to predict the number of pulsars that we can uncover with variance imaging in future continuum surveys. We show that the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU) survey can find ∼30 normal pulsars and ∼40 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) over and above the number known today, and similarly an all-sky continuum survey with SKA-MID can discover ∼140 normal pulsars and ∼110 MSPs with this technique. Variance imaging with EMU and SKA-MID will detect pulsars with large duty cycles and is therefore a potential tool for finding MSPs and pulsars in relativistic binary systems. Compared with current pulsar surveys at high Galactic latitudes in the Southern hemisphere, variance imaging with EMU and SKA-MID will be more sensitive, and will enable detection of pulsars with dispersion measures between ∼10 and 100 cm-3 pc.

Sleep and youth suicidal behavior: a neglected field.

PubMed

Liu, Xianchen; Buysse, Daniel J

2006-05-01

Sleep undergoes substantial changes during adolescence and suicide risk begins to increase during this period as well. This review focuses on recent literature on the relationship between sleep and suicidal behavior and proposes directions for future research. Adolescent sleep is characterized by widespread sleep restriction, irregular sleep schedules, daytime sleepiness, and elevated risk for sleep disturbances. More research on adolescent sleep and psychosocial impairment, psychiatric disorders, and suicidal behavior has been conducted. Suicidal psychiatric patients had more sleep disturbances including insomnia, hypersomnia, or nightmares than nonsuicidal patients. Shorter rapid eye movement latency and increased rapid eye movement activity have been noted to be a marker of suicidality in psychiatric patients. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that insomnia, nightmares, and sleep insufficiency are associated with elevated risk for suicide. Although the link between insomnia and suicidal behavior appears to be mediated by depression, existing data suggest an independent predictive role of nightmares in future suicidal behavior. Sleep loss or disturbances are likely to signal an increased risk of future suicidal action in adolescents. Large-scale prospective studies and neurobiological studies are needed for a better understanding of the complex relationship between sleep, psychopathology, and youth suicidal behavior.

Excitation of surface plasmon polaritons by fluorescent light from organic nanofibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobolewska, Elżbieta Karolina; Józefowski, Leszek; Kawalec, Tomasz; Leißner, Till; Rubahn, Horst-Günter; Adam, Jost; Fiutowski, Jacek

2017-11-01

Micro- and nano-scale systems with defined active elements acting as local surface plasmons polariton (SPP) sources are crucial for the development of future plasmonic circuits. We demonstrate SPP excitation by fluorescent light from crystalline organic para-hexaphenylene nanofibers deposited on a dielectric/metal surface. We characterize the SPPs using angle-resolved leakage radiation spectroscopy, in the excitation wavelength range 420 - 675 nm, corresponding to the nanofiber photoluminescence band. The nanofiber arrangement's capability to act as an SPP coupler for coherent as well as non-coherent excitation indicates its prospect for future integrated systems. To support our experimental results, we investigate the proposed geometries by analytical calculations and finite-difference-time-domain (FDTD) modelling. The experimentally obtained angular leakage radiation peak positions can readily be predicted by our analytical calculations. Nevertheless, the experimental results exhibit a distinct asymmetry in the peak intensities. In agreement with our FDTD calculations, we address this asymmetrical SPP excitation to the nanofiber molecular orientation. The proposed structure's high flexibility, the ease of selective positioning of organic nanofibers, together with the gained insight into its photon-SPP coupling mechanism show great promise towards future local SPP excitation-based integrated devices.

Analysis of Market Opportunities for Chinese Private Express Delivery Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Changbing; Bai, Lijun; Tong, Xiaoqing

China's express delivery market has become the arena in which each express enterprise struggles to chase due to the huge potential demand and high profitable prospects. So certain qualitative and quantitative forecast for the future changes of China's express delivery market will help enterprises understand various types of market conditions and social changes in demand and adjust business activities to enhance their competitiveness timely. The development of China's express delivery industry is first introduced in this chapter. Then the theoretical basis of the regression model is overviewed. We also predict the demand trends of China's express delivery market by using Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis from qualitative and quantitative aspects, respectively. Finally, we draw some conclusions and recommendations for China's express delivery industry.

Bio-inspired polarized skylight navigation: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xi; Wan, Yongqin; Li, Lijing

2015-12-01

The idea of using skylight polarization in navigation is learned from animals such as desert ants and honeybees. Various research groups have been working on the development of novel navigation systems inspired by polarized skylight. The research of background in polarized skylight navigation is introduced, and basic principle of the insects navigation is expatiated. Then, the research progress status at home and abroad in skylight polarization pattern, three bio-inspired polarized skylight navigation sensors and polarized skylight navigation are reviewed. Finally, the research focuses in the field of polarized skylight navigation are analyzed. At the same time, the trend of development and prospect in the future are predicted. It is believed that the review is helpful to people understand polarized skylight navigation and polarized skylight navigation sensors.

Atomic switch networks as complex adaptive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnhorst, Kelsey S.; Carbajal, Juan P.; Aguilera, Renato C.; Sandouk, Eric J.; Aono, Masakazu; Stieg, Adam Z.; Gimzewski, James K.

2018-03-01

Complexity is an increasingly crucial aspect of societal, environmental and biological phenomena. Using a dense unorganized network of synthetic synapses it is shown that a complex adaptive system can be physically created on a microchip built especially for complex problems. These neuro-inspired atomic switch networks (ASNs) are a dynamic system with inherent and distributed memory, recurrent pathways, and up to a billion interacting elements. We demonstrate key parameters describing self-organized behavior such as non-linearity, power law dynamics, and multistate switching regimes. Device dynamics are then investigated using a feedback loop which provides control over current and voltage power-law behavior. Wide ranging prospective applications include understanding and eventually predicting future events that display complex emergent behavior in the critical regime.

Applications of systems biology towards microbial fuel production.

PubMed

Gowen, Christopher M; Fong, Stephen S

2011-10-01

Harnessing the immense natural diversity of biological functions for economical production of fuel has enormous potential benefits. Inevitably, however, the native capabilities for any given organism must be modified to increase the productivity or efficiency of a biofuel bioprocess. From a broad perspective, the challenge is to sufficiently understand the details of cellular functionality to be able to prospectively predict and modify the cellular function of a microorganism. Recent advances in experimental and computational systems biology approaches can be used to better understand cellular level function and guide future experiments. With pressure to quickly develop viable, renewable biofuel processes a balance must be maintained between obtaining depth of biological knowledge and applying that knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The universality and the future prospects of physiological energetics: Reply to comments on "Physics of metabolic organization".

PubMed

Jusup, Marko; Sousa, Tânia; Domingos, Tiago; Labinac, Velimir; Marn, Nina; Wang, Zhen; Klanjšček, Tin

2017-03-01

In response to the comments on review "Physics of metabolic organization", we discuss the universality and the future prospects of physiological energetics. The topics range from the role of entropy in modeling living organisms to the apparent ubiquity of the von Bertalanffy curve, and the potential applications of the theory in yet unexplored domains. Tradeoffs in outreach to non-specialists are also briefly considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interaction of 5-HTTLPR and Idiographic Stressors Predicts Prospective Depressive Symptoms Specifically among Youth in a Multi-wave Design

PubMed Central

Hankin, Benjamin L.; Jenness, Jessica; Abela, John R.Z.; Smolen, Andrew

2011-01-01

5-HTTLPR, episodic stressors, depressive and anxious symptoms were assessed prospectively (child and parent report) every 3 months over 1 year (5 waves of data) among community youth ages 9–15 (n = 220). Lagged HLM analyses showed 5-HTTLPR interacted with idiographic stressors (increases relative to the child’s own average level over time), but not nomothetic stressors (higher stress exposure relative to the sample), to predict prospective elevations in depressive, but not anxious, symptoms. Youth with copies of the S or LG alleles of 5-HTTLPR, who experienced more stressors relative to their typical level, exhibited prospective increases in depressive symptoms over time. These findings suggest that 5-HTTLPR confers susceptibility to depression via stress reactivity. PMID:21722029

Predicting the math/science career goals of low-income prospective first-generation college students.

PubMed

Garriott, Patton O; Flores, Lisa Y; Martens, Matthew P

2013-04-01

The present study used social cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) to predict the math/science goal intentions of a sample of low-income prospective first-generation college students (N = 305). Structural equation modeling was used to test a model depicting relationships between contextual (i.e., social class, learning experiences, proximal supports and barriers) and person-cognitive (i.e., self-efficacy, outcome expectations, interests, goals) variables as hypothesized in SCCT and based on previous literature on low-income first-generation college students. Results indicated that the hypothesized model provided the best representation of the data. All paths in the model were statistically significant, with the exceptions of paths from self-efficacy to goals, outcome expectations to interests, and perceived barriers to self-efficacy. Bootstrapping procedures revealed that the relationships between social class, self-efficacy, and outcome expectations were mediated through learning experiences. Furthermore, the relationship between social supports and goals was mediated by self-efficacy and interests and the relationships between self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and goals were mediated by interests. Contrary to hypotheses, the relationship between barriers and goals was not mediated by self-efficacy and interests. The hypothesis that proximal contextual supports and barriers would moderate the relationship between interests and goals was not supported. The final model explained 66% and 55% of the variance in math/science interests and goals, respectively. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.

The reciprocal relationships between changes in adolescent perceived prevalence of smoking in movies and progression of smoking status

PubMed Central

Forster, Jean; Erickson, Darin; Lazovich, DeAnn; Southwell, Brian G.

2014-01-01

Background Smoking in movies is associated with adolescent smoking worldwide. To date, studies of the association mostly are restricted to the exposure to smoking images viewed by 9–15 year-olds. The association among older adolescents is rarely examined. In addition, the reciprocal effect of smoking behavior on subsequent reported exposure to smoking in movies has not been reported. Methods Data were from the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study collected every six months from 2000–2007 when participants were between the ages of 12 and 18 (n=4745). We estimated the prospective effect of the perceived prevalence of smoking in movies (four levels, from never to most of the time) on smoking stage measured six months later (six stages, from never smoker to established smoker), and the reciprocal prospective association between the two factors. Estimates were adjusted for demographic factors. Results The perceived prevalence of smoking in movies measured between ages 13½–15½ consistently predicted subsequent smoking stage. The association was inconsistent after the age of 15½. Smoking stage did not consistently predict subsequent perception of the prevalence of smoking in movies. Conclusions Perceived exposure to movie smoking primarily influenced teenagers’ smoking behavior at younger ages. If future studies confirm this finding, developing and evaluating interventions to improve young teenagers resistance to these images may complement policies to reduce smoking in movies to reduce prevalence of adolescent smoking. PMID:21828229

The reciprocal relationships between changes in adolescent perceived prevalence of smoking in movies and progression of smoking status.

PubMed

Choi, Kelvin; Forster, Jean; Erickson, Darin; Lazovich, Deann; Southwell, Brian G

2012-09-01

Smoking in movies is associated with adolescent smoking worldwide. To date, studies of the association mostly are restricted to the exposure to smoking images viewed by 9-15-year-olds. The association among older adolescents is rarely examined. In addition, the reciprocal effect of smoking behaviour on subsequent reported exposure to smoking in movies has not been reported. Data were from the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study collected every 6 months from 2000 to 2007 when participants were between the ages of 12 and 18 (n=4745). We estimated the prospective effect of the perceived prevalence of smoking in movies (four levels, from never to most of the time) on smoking stage (SS) measured 6 months later (six stages, from never-smoker to established smoker) and the reciprocal prospective association between the two factors. Estimates were adjusted for demographic factors. The perceived prevalence of smoking in movies measured between ages 13½ and 15½ consistently predicted subsequent SS. The association was inconsistent after the age of 15½. SS did not consistently predict subsequent perception of the prevalence of smoking in movies. Perceived exposure to movie smoking primarily influenced teenagers' smoking behaviour at younger ages. If future studies confirm this finding, developing and evaluating interventions to improve young teenagers' resistance to these images may complement policies to reduce smoking in movies to reduce prevalence of adolescent smoking.

Pharmaceuticals Exposed to the Space Environment: Problems and Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, Donald A.; Myers, Jerry G.

2016-01-01

The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Health Countermeasures Element maintains ongoing efforts to inform detailed risks, gaps, and further questions associated with the use of pharmaceuticals in space. Most recently, the Pharmacology Risk Report, released in 2010, illustrates the problems associated with maintaining pharmaceutical efficacy. Since the report, one key publication includes evaluation of pharmaceutical products stored on the International Space Station (ISS). This study shows that selected pharmaceuticals on ISS have a shorter shelf-life in space than corresponding terrestrial controls. The HRP Human Research Roadmap for planetary exploration identifies the risk of ineffective or toxic medications due to long-term storage during missions to Mars. The roadmap also identifies the need to understand and predict how pharmaceuticals will behave when exposed to radiation for long durations. Terrestrial studies of returned samples offer a start for predictive modeling. This paper shows that pharmaceuticals returned to Earth for post-flight analyses are amenable to a Weibull distribution analysis in order to support probabilistic risk assessment modeling. The paper also considers the prospect of passive payloads of key pharmaceuticals on sample return missions outside of Earth's magnetic field to gather additional statistics. Ongoing work in radiation chemistry suggests possible mitigation strategies where future work could be done at cryogenic temperatures to explore methods for preserving the strength of pharmaceuticals in the space radiation environment, perhaps one day leading to an architecture where pharmaceuticals are cached on the Martian surface and preserved cryogenically.

The future orientation of constructive memory: an evolutionary perspective on therapeutic hypnosis and brief psychotherapy.

PubMed

Rossi, Ernest; Erickson-Klein, Roxanna; Rossi, Kathryn

2008-04-01

We explore a new distinction between the future, prospective memory system being investigated in current neuroscience and the past, retrospective memory system, which was the original theoretical foundation of therapeutic hypnosis, classical psychoanalysis, and psychotherapy. We then generalize a current evolutionary theory of sleep and dreaming, which focuses on the future, prospective memory system, to conceptualize a new evolutionary perspective on therapeutic hypnosis and brief psychotherapy. The implication of current neuroscience research is that activity-dependent gene expression and brain plasticity are the psychobiological basis of adaptive behavior, consciousness, and creativity in everyday life as well as psychotherapy. We summarize a case illustrating how this evolutionary perspective can be used to quickly resolve problems with past obstructive procrastination in school to facilitate current and future academic success.

Verbal cued recall as a predictor of conversion to Alzheimer's disease in Mild Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Dierckx, E; Engelborghs, S; De Raedt, R; Van Buggenhout, M; De Deyn, P P; Verté, D; Ponjaert-Kristoffersen, I

2009-10-01

This study was set up to investigate whether neuropsychological tests are able to predict conversion to AD among Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) patients. At baseline the cognitive part of the Cambridge Examination for Mental Disorders of the Elderly (CAMCOG), the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE), the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), a Dutch variation of Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test, the Memory Impairment Screen plus (MISplus) and the Visual Association Test (VAT) were administered to 40 patients diagnosed with MCI. After 18 months, MCI-patients were reassessed and a follow-up diagnosis was established. Of those who were seen for follow-up (n = 31), seven fulfilled (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria of probable AD, while 24 did not convert. A binary logistic regression analysis showed that the MISplus contributed most to the prediction of conversion (OR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.099-0.790). With a cut-off of 2 out of 6, a positive predictive value of 71.5%, a negative predictive value of 91.5% and an overall diagnostic accuracy of 87.0% were achieved. This prospective, longitudinal study shows that a score of 0 or 1 out of 6 on the MISplus may be a good indicator of future (within 18 months) progression to AD among MCI-patients. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Direct CP violation in K⁰→ππ: Standard Model Status.

PubMed

Gisbert, Hector; Pich, Antonio

2018-05-01

In 1988 the NA31 experiment presented the first evidence of direct CP violation in the K⁰→ππ decay amplitudes. A clear signal with a 7.2σ statistical significance was later established with the full data samples from the NA31, E731, NA48 and KTeV experiments, confirming that CP violation is associated with a ΔS=1 quark transition, as predicted by the Standard Model. However, the theoretical prediction for the measured ratio ε'/ε has been a subject of strong controversy along the years. Although the underlying physics was already clarified in 2001, the recent release of improved lattice data has revived again the theoretical debate. We review the current status, discussing in detail the different ingredients that enter into the calculation of this observable and the reasons why seemingly contradictory predictions were obtained in the past by several groups. An update of the Standard Model prediction is presented and the prospects for future improvements are analysed. Taking into account all known short-distance and long-distance contributions, one obtains Re(ε'/ε) = (15 ± 7) ·10^-4, in good agreement with the experimental measurement. . © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Prospective Prediction of Women’s Sexual Victimization by Intimate and Nonintimate Male Perpetrators

PubMed Central

Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol; Livingston, Jennifer A.

2007-01-01

Although behavioral risk factors such as substance use have been hypothesized to increase women’s vulnerability to sexual victimization, prospective studies provide mixed empirical support. In the current prospective study, the authors considered substance use, sexual activity, and sexual assertiveness as predictors of sexual victimization from intimate partners and nonintimate perpetrators. Among a representative community sample of women ages 18–30 years (N = 927), 17.9% reported sexual victimization over 2 years, the majority by an intimate partner. Low sexual refusal assertiveness, drug use, and prior intimate partner victimization predicted intimate partner sexual victimization. Heavy episodic drinking and number of sexual partners predicted victimization from nonintimates. The finding that there are different risk factors for sexual victimization from intimates versus nonintimates suggests the need for tailored prevention strategies. PMID:17295563

Sick Leave within 5 Years of Whiplash Trauma Predicts Recovery: A Prospective Cohort and Register-Based Study

PubMed Central

Carstensen, Tina Birgitte Wisbech; Fink, Per; Oernboel, Eva; Kasch, Helge; Jensen, Troels Staehelin; Frostholm, Lisbeth

2015-01-01

Background 10–22% of individuals sustaining whiplash trauma develop persistent symptoms resulting in reduced working ability and decreased quality of life, but it is poorly understood why some people do not recover. Various collision and post-collision risk factors have been studied, but little is known about pre-collision risk factors. In particular, the impact of sickness and socioeconomic factors before the collision on recovery is sparsely explored. The aim of this study was to examine if welfare payments received within five years pre-collision predict neck pain and negative change in provisional situation one year post-collision. Methods and Findings 719 individuals with acute whiplash trauma consecutively recruited from emergency departments or primary care after car accidents in Denmark completed questionnaires on socio-demographic and health factors immediately after the collision. After 12 months, a visual analogue scale on neck pain intensity was completed. 3595 matched controls in the general population were sampled, and national public register data on social benefits and any other welfare payments were obtained for participants with acute whiplash trauma and controls from five years pre-collision to 15 months after. Participants with acute whiplash trauma who had received sickness benefit for more than 12 weeks pre-collision had increased odds for negative change in future provisional situation (Odds Ratio (OR) (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 3.8 (2.1;7.1)) and future neck pain (OR (95%CI) = 3.3 (1.8;6.3)), controlling for other known risk factors. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market (more weeks of sick leave (χ2(2) = 36.7, p < 0.001) and unemployment (χ2(2) = 12.5, p = 0.002)) pre-collision compared with controls. Experiencing a whiplash trauma raised the odds for future negative change in provisional situation (OR (95%CI) = 3.1 (2.3;4.4)) compared with controls. Conclusions Sick leave before the collision strongly predicted prolonged recovery following whiplash trauma. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market pre-collision compared with the general population. Neck pain at inclusion predicted future neck pain. Acute whiplash trauma may trigger pre-existing vulnerabilities increasing risk of developing whiplash-associated disorders. PMID:26098860

The Relationship between Doctoral Completion Time, Gender, and Future Salary Prospects for Physical Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potvin, Geoff; Tai, Robert H.

2012-03-01

Drawing from a national survey of Ph.D.-holding physical scientists, we present evidence that doctoral completion time is a strong predictor of future salary prospects: each additional year in graduate school corresponds to a substantially lower average salary. This is true even while controlling for typical measures of scientific merit (grant funding and publication rates) and several other structural and career factors expected to influence salaries. Extending this picture to include gender effects, we show that women earn significantly less than men overall and experience no effect of doctoral completion time on their salaries, while men see a significant gain in salary stemming from earlier completion times. Doctoral completion time is shown to be largely unconnected to measures of prior academic success, research independence, and scientific merit suggesting that doctoral completion time is, to a great extent, out of the control of individual graduate students. Nonetheless, it can be influential on an individual's future career prospects, as can gender-related effects.

The Next Era: Deep Learning in Pharmaceutical Research.

PubMed

Ekins, Sean

2016-11-01

Over the past decade we have witnessed the increasing sophistication of machine learning algorithms applied in daily use from internet searches, voice recognition, social network software to machine vision software in cameras, phones, robots and self-driving cars. Pharmaceutical research has also seen its fair share of machine learning developments. For example, applying such methods to mine the growing datasets that are created in drug discovery not only enables us to learn from the past but to predict a molecule's properties and behavior in future. The latest machine learning algorithm garnering significant attention is deep learning, which is an artificial neural network with multiple hidden layers. Publications over the last 3 years suggest that this algorithm may have advantages over previous machine learning methods and offer a slight but discernable edge in predictive performance. The time has come for a balanced review of this technique but also to apply machine learning methods such as deep learning across a wider array of endpoints relevant to pharmaceutical research for which the datasets are growing such as physicochemical property prediction, formulation prediction, absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity (ADME/Tox), target prediction and skin permeation, etc. We also show that there are many potential applications of deep learning beyond cheminformatics. It will be important to perform prospective testing (which has been carried out rarely to date) in order to convince skeptics that there will be benefits from investing in this technique.

What Costs Do Reveal and Moving beyond the Cost Debate: Reply to Einstein and McDaniel (2010)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.

2010-01-01

Einstein et al. (2005) predicted no cost to an ongoing task when a prospective memory task met certain criteria. Smith, Hunt, McVay, and McConnell (2007) used prospective memory tasks that met these criteria and found a cost to the ongoing task, contrary to Einstein et al.'s prediction. Einstein and McDaniel (2010) correctly noted that there are…

Body Dissatisfaction Prospectively Predicts Depressive Mood and Low Self-Esteem in Adolescent Girls and Boys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paxton, Susan J.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

2006-01-01

This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys…

A Quantitative Investigation of Prospective Teachers' Hopes and Their Motivational Forces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay; Yesilbursa, Amanda

2017-01-01

The present study aimed to investigate the diverse aspects of prospective teachers' dispositional hopes, teaching-specific hopes, and their sources, as well as to explore whether these would significantly predict their preparation for the teaching profession. A total of 851 prospective teachers voluntarily participated in the study. A series of…

Diagnosing breast cancer using Raman spectroscopy: prospective analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haka, Abigail S.; Volynskaya, Zoya; Gardecki, Joseph A.; Nazemi, Jon; Shenk, Robert; Wang, Nancy; Dasari, Ramachandra R.; Fitzmaurice, Maryann; Feld, Michael S.

2009-09-01

We present the first prospective test of Raman spectroscopy in diagnosing normal, benign, and malignant human breast tissues. Prospective testing of spectral diagnostic algorithms allows clinicians to accurately assess the diagnostic information contained in, and any bias of, the spectroscopic measurement. In previous work, we developed an accurate, internally validated algorithm for breast cancer diagnosis based on analysis of Raman spectra acquired from fresh-frozen in vitro tissue samples. We currently evaluate the performance of this algorithm prospectively on a large ex vivo clinical data set that closely mimics the in vivo environment. Spectroscopic data were collected from freshly excised surgical specimens, and 129 tissue sites from 21 patients were examined. Prospective application of the algorithm to the clinical data set resulted in a sensitivity of 83%, a specificity of 93%, a positive predictive value of 36%, and a negative predictive value of 99% for distinguishing cancerous from normal and benign tissues. The performance of the algorithm in different patient populations is discussed. Sources of bias in the in vitro calibration and ex vivo prospective data sets, including disease prevalence and disease spectrum, are examined and analytical methods for comparison provided.

Performance predictions affect attentional processes of event-based prospective memory.

PubMed

Rummel, Jan; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G; Touron, Dayna R

2013-09-01

To investigate whether making performance predictions affects prospective memory (PM) processing, we asked one group of participants to predict their performance in a PM task embedded in an ongoing task and compared their performance with a control group that made no predictions. A third group gave not only PM predictions but also ongoing-task predictions. Exclusive PM predictions resulted in slower ongoing-task responding both in a nonfocal (Experiment 1) and in a focal (Experiment 2) PM task. Only in the nonfocal task was the additional slowing accompanied by improved PM performance. Even in the nonfocal task, however, was the correlation between ongoing-task speed and PM performance reduced after predictions, suggesting that the slowing was not completely functional for PM. Prediction-induced changes could be avoided by asking participants to additionally predict their performance in the ongoing task. In sum, the present findings substantiate a role of metamemory for attention-allocation strategies of PM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring Gambling Reinforcers, Over Consumption and Fallacies: The Psychometric Properties and Predictive Validity of the Jonsson-Abbott Scale.

PubMed

Jonsson, Jakob; Abbott, Max W; Sjöberg, Anders; Carlbring, Per

2017-01-01

Traditionally, gambling and problem gambling research relies on cross-sectional and retrospective designs. This has compromised identification of temporal relationships and causal inference. To overcome these problems a new questionnaire, the Jonsson-Abbott Scale (JAS), was developed and used in a large, prospective, general population study, The Swedish Longitudinal Gambling Study (Swelogs). The JAS has 11 items and seeks to identify early indicators, examine relationships between indicators and assess their capacity to predict future problem progression. The aims of the study were to examine psychometric properties of the JAS (internal consistency and dimensionality) and predictive validity with respect to increased gambling risk and problem gambling onset. The results are based on repeated interviews with 3818 participants. The response rate from the initial baseline wave was 74%. The original sample consisted of a random, stratified selection from the Swedish population register aged between 16 and 84. The results indicate an acceptable fit of a three-factor solution in a confirmatory factor analysis with 'Over consumption,' 'Gambling fallacies,' and 'Reinforcers' as factors. Reinforcers, Over consumption and Gambling fallacies were significant predictors of gambling risk potential and Gambling fallacies and Over consumption were significant predictors of problem gambling onset (incident cases) at 12 month follow up. When controlled for risk potential measured at baseline, the predictor Over consumption was not significant for gambling risk potential at follow up. For incident cases, Gambling fallacies and Over consumption remained significant when controlled for risk potential. Implications of the results for the development of problem gambling, early detection, prevention, and future research are discussed.

Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

PubMed Central

Finlay, Andrea; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer L.

2014-01-01

Adolescent future values – beliefs about what will matter to them in the future – may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic privilege) predicted adult social roles, civic behaviors, and alcohol use. Future values positively predicted behaviors within the same domain; fewer cross-domain associations were evident. Civic responsibility positively predicted adult civic behaviors, but negatively predicted having children. Hedonistic privilege positively predicted adult alcohol use and negatively predicted civic behaviors. Results suggest that attention should be paid to how adolescents are thinking about their futures due to the associated links with long-term social and health behaviors. PMID:26279595

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies and its application to four recent severe regional drought events in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; LU, G.; He, H.; Wu, Z.; He, J.

2017-12-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for seasonal water management. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). It is essentially the synchronous stepwise regression relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI updated daily (SPI3). It is forced with forecasted atmospheric and oceanic variables retrieved from seasonal climate forecast systems, and it can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Simulation and prediction of four severe seasonal regional drought processes in China were forced with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operationally forecasted datasets, respectively. With the help of real-time correction for operational application, model application during four recent severe regional drought events in China revealed that the model is good at development prediction but weak in severity prediction. In addition to weakness in prediction of drought peak, the prediction of drought relief is possible to be predicted as drought recession. This weak performance may be associated with precipitation-causing weather patterns during drought relief. Based on initial virtual analysis on predicted 90-day prospective SPI3 curves, it shows that the 2009/2010 drought in Southwest China and 2014 drought in North China can be predicted and simulated well even for the prospective 1-75 day. In comparison, the prospective 1-45 day may be a feasible and acceptable lead time for simulation and prediction of the 2011 droughts in Southwest China and East China, after which the simulated and predicted developments clearly change.

Nonminimal quartic inflation in classically conformal U(1 ) X extended standard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, Satsuki; Okada, Nobuchika; Raut, Digesh; Takahashi, Dai-suke

2018-03-01

We propose quartic inflation with nonminimal gravitational coupling in the context of the classically conformal U(1 ) X extension of the standard model (SM). In this model, the U(1 ) X gauge symmetry is radiatively broken through the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism, by which the U(1 ) X gauge boson (Z' boson) and the right-handed Majorana neutrinos acquire their masses. We consider their masses in the range of O (10 GeV )-O (10 TeV ) , which are accessible to high-energy collider experiments. The radiative U(1 ) X gauge symmetry breaking also generates a negative mass squared for the SM Higgs doublet, and the electroweak symmetry breaking occurs subsequently. We identify the U(1 ) X Higgs field with inflaton and calculate the inflationary predictions. Because of the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism, the inflaton quartic coupling during inflation, which determines the inflationary predictions, is correlated to the U(1 ) X gauge coupling. With this correlation, we investigate complementarities between the inflationary predictions and the current constraint from the Z' boson resonance search at the LHC Run 2 as well as the prospect of the search for the Z' boson and the right-handed neutrinos at the future collider experiments.

Predictive genetic testing in minors for late-onset conditions: a chronological and analytical review of the ethical arguments.

PubMed

Mand, Cara; Gillam, Lynn; Delatycki, Martin B; Duncan, Rony E

2012-09-01

Predictive genetic testing is now routinely offered to asymptomatic adults at risk for genetic disease. However, testing of minors at risk for adult-onset conditions, where no treatment or preventive intervention exists, has evoked greater controversy and inspired a debate spanning two decades. This review aims to provide a detailed longitudinal analysis and concludes by examining the debate's current status and prospects for the future. Fifty-three relevant theoretical papers published between 1990 and December 2010 were identified, and interpretative content analysis was employed to catalogue discrete arguments within these papers. Novel conclusions were drawn from this review. While the debate's first voices were raised in opposition of testing and their arguments have retained currency over many years, arguments in favour of testing, which appeared sporadically at first, have gained momentum more recently. Most arguments on both sides are testable empirical claims, so far untested, rather than abstract ethical or philosophical positions. The dispute, therein, lies not so much in whether minors should be permitted to access predictive genetic testing but whether these empirical claims on the relative benefits or harms of testing should be assessed.

How effective are risk assessments/measures for predicting future aggressive behaviour in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID): A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lofthouse, Rachael; Golding, Laura; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard; Lindsay, William

2017-12-01

Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs. Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design. Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intolerance of uncertainty as a predictor of post-traumatic stress symptoms following a traumatic event.

PubMed

Oglesby, Mary E; Boffa, Joseph W; Short, Nicole A; Raines, Amanda M; Schmidt, Norman B

2016-06-01

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) has been associated with elevated post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in the extant literature. However, no research to date has investigated whether pre-trauma IU predicts PTSS following trauma exposure. The current study prospectively examined the relationship between IU and PTSS within a sample of individuals with various levels of exposure to a university campus shooting. We hypothesized that pre-trauma IU would predict elevated PTSS following a campus shooting, even after covarying for anxiety sensitivity (AS), a known correlate of PTSS. Participants included undergraduates (n=77) who completed a self-report battery in Introductory Psychology. After a campus shooting, they were invited to complete measures of PTSD symptoms and level of exposure to the shooting. As anticipated, results revealed pre-trauma IU as a significant predictor of elevated PTSS following the campus shooting. These results remained significant after covarying for pre-trauma levels of AS. Our results are the first to demonstrate that elevated pre-trauma levels of IU predict later PTSS following exposure to a traumatic event. This finding is discussed in terms of promising directions for future research and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum TSH within the reference range as a predictor of future hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism: 11-year follow-up of the HUNT Study in Norway.

PubMed

Åsvold, Bjørn O; Vatten, Lars J; Midthjell, Kristian; Bjøro, Trine

2012-01-01

Serum TSH in the upper part of the reference range may sometimes be a response to autoimmune thyroiditis in early stage and may therefore predict future hypothyroidism. Conversely, relatively low serum TSH could predict future hyperthyroidism. The objective of the study was to assess TSH within the reference range and subsequent risk of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism. This was a prospective population-based study with linkage to the Norwegian Prescription Database. A total of 10,083 women and 5,023 men without previous thyroid disease who had a baseline TSH of 0.20-4.5 mU/liter and who participated at a follow-up examination 11 yr later. Predicted probabilities of developing hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism during follow-up, by categories of baseline TSH, were estimated. During 11 yr of follow-up, 3.5% of women and 1.3% of men developed hypothyroidism, and 1.1% of women and 0.6% of men developed hyperthyroidism. In both sexes, the baseline TSH was positively associated with the risk of subsequent hypothyroidism. The risk increased gradually from TSH of 0.50-1.4 mU/liter [women, 1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8-1.4; men, 0.3%, 95% CI 0.1-0.6] to a TSH of 4.0-4.5 mU/liter (women, 31.5%, 95% CI 24.6-39.3; men, 14.7%, 95% CI 7.7-26.2). The risk of hyperthyroidism was higher in women with a baseline TSH of 0.20-0.49 mU/liter (3.9%, 95% CI 1.8-8.4) than in women with a TSH of 0.50-0.99 mU/liter (1.4%, 95% CI 0.9-2.1) or higher (∼1.0%). TSH within the reference range is positively and strongly associated with the risk of future hypothyroidism. TSH at the lower limit of the reference range may be associated with an increased risk of hyperthyroidism.

Prospective versus predictive control in timing of hitting a falling ball.

PubMed

Katsumata, Hiromu; Russell, Daniel M

2012-02-01

Debate exists as to whether humans use prospective or predictive control to intercept an object falling under gravity (Baurès et al. in Vis Res 47:2982-2991, 2007; Zago et al. in Vis Res 48:1532-1538, 2008). Prospective control involves using continuous information to regulate action. τ, the ratio of the size of the gap to the rate of gap closure, has been proposed as the information used in guiding interceptive actions prospectively (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221-250, 1998). This form of control is expected to generate movement modulation, where variability decreases over the course of an action based upon more accurate timing information. In contrast, predictive control assumes that a pre-programmed movement is triggered at an appropriate criterion timing variable. For a falling object it is commonly argued that an internal model of gravitational acceleration is used to predict the motion of the object and determine movement initiation. This form of control predicts fixed duration movements initiated at consistent time-to-contact (TTC), either across conditions (constant criterion operational timing) or within conditions (variable criterion operational timing). The current study sought to test predictive and prospective control hypotheses by disrupting continuous visual information of a falling ball and examining consistency in movement initiation and duration, and evidence for movement modulation. Participants (n = 12) batted a ball dropped from three different heights (1, 1.3 and 1.5 m), under both full-vision and partial occlusion conditions. In the occlusion condition, only the initial ball drop and the final 200 ms of ball flight to the interception point could be observed. The initiation of the swing did not occur at a consistent TTC, τ, or any other timing variable across drop heights, in contrast with previous research. However, movement onset was not impacted by occluding the ball flight for 280-380 ms. This finding indicates that humans did not need to be continuously coupled to vision of the ball to initiate the swing accurately, but instead could use predictive control based on acceleration timing information (TTC2). However, other results provide evidence for movement modulation, a characteristic of prospective control. Strong correlations between movement initiation and duration and reduced timing variability from swing onset to arrival at the interception point, both support compensatory variability. An analysis of modulation within the swing revealed that early in the swing, the movement acceleration was strongly correlated to the required mean velocity at swing onset and that later in the swing, the movement acceleration was again strongly correlated with the current required mean velocity. Rather than a consistent movement initiated at the same time, these findings show that the swing was variable but modulated for meeting the demands of each trial. A prospective model of coupling τ (bat-ball) with τ (ball-target) was found to provide a very strong linear fit for an average of 69% of the movement duration. These findings provide evidence for predictive control based on TTC2 information in initiating the swing and prospective control based on τ in guiding the bat to intercept the ball.

Is the Predictability of New-Onset Postpartum Depression Better During Pregnancy or in the Early Postpartum Period? A Prospective Study in Croatian Women.

PubMed

Nakić Radoš, Sandra; Herman, Radoslav; Tadinac, Meri

2016-01-01

The researchers' aim was to examine whether it was better to predict new-onset postpartum depression (PPD) during pregnancy or immediately after childbirth. A prospective study conducted in Croatia followed women (N = 272) from the third trimester of pregnancy through the early postpartum period (within the first 3 postpartum days), to 6 weeks postpartum. Questionnaires on depression, anxiety, stress, coping, self-esteem, and social support were administered. Through regression analyses we showed that PPD symptoms could be equally predicted by variables from pregnancy (30.3%) and the early postpartum period (34.0%), with a small advantage of PPD prediction in the early postpartum period.

[Prospective memory - concepts, methods of assessment, neuroanatomical bases and its deficits in mental disorders].

PubMed

Wiłkość, Monika; Izdebski, Paweł; Zajac-Lamparska, Ludmiła

2013-01-01

In the last two decades of the last century there has been a shift in the studies on memory. In psychology of memory the criticism of the laboratory approach resulted in development of the ecological approach. One of the effects of this change was to initiate researches on memory that includes plans for the future, which has resulted in the distinction of the concept of prospective memory. Prospective memory is used in many aspects of everyday life. It deals with remembering intentions and plans, it is connected with remembering about specific task or activity in the future. There are three types of PM: event-based prospective memory, time-based prospective memory and activity-based prospective memory. Current research in this field have already established its own paradigm and tools measuring PM and there is still increasing scientific interest in this issue. Prospective memory assessment may be carried out in various ways. Among them, the most frequently used are: a) questionnaires, b) psychological tests, c) experimental procedures. Within the latter, the additional distinction can be introduced for: the experiments conducted under natural conditions and the laboratory procedures. In Polish literature, there are only a few articles on PM. The aim of this work is to review studies on assessment methods of PM. Its neuroanatomical bases and its functioning in different mental disorders are analyzed. The work is aimed to focus clinicians attention on prospective memory as an area which is important for complex diagnosis of cognitive processes.